For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL |Â CFB |Â MLB |Â NBA |Â CBB |Â NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ Auburn 12:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Mississippi State +5.5 (5*) Mississippi is a deceiving 5-4 this season when considering they suffered 3 of those losses by 3 points or fewer. With a little bit of lick the Bulldogs could very easily have been 8-1 at this point. Mississippi State has posted quality wins over #11 Texas A&M (7-2), # 16 NC State (7-2), and Kentucky (6-3). Mississippi State is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road this season while their defense held opponents to just 272.8 yards per game. Mississippi State has a yards per game differential of +120.3 this season while Auburn comes in at -43.2. That’s a huge +163.5-yard difference and especially when considering it favors the underdog. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points. |
|||||||
11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh OVER 72 | 23-30 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh 7:30 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Over 72.0 (5*) This game features 2 of the most potent offensive teams in the country. The starting quarterbacks Sam Howell of North Carolina and Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh are top NFL prospects and for good reason. Both have put up gaudy numbers this season regardless of the competition. North Carolina ranks #111 out of 130 teams when it comes to scoring defense. As a matter of fact, during their previous 3 contests, North Carolina has allowed 47.0 points and 519.7 yards per game. They Tar Heels defense will have the unenviable task of facing the #1 scoring team in the nation in Pitt who averages 45.0 points per game. Conversely, North Carolina is #9 in yards gained and #11 in points scored per game. Both team's offenses like to go at a lightning quick pace with North Carolina averaging 71 plays and Pitt an enormous 79 snaps per game. Pittsburgh has gone over the total in their previous 2 games. Since Pat Narduzzi became head coach at Pitt, the Panthers have played 17-3 (85%) to the over after their previous 2 games each went over, and there was a combined average of 70.3 points scored per contest. Since Mac Brown began his 2nd tenure as head coach at North Carolina, his Tar Heels have played 6-0 to the over in road games versus opponents with a winning record. Those contests averaged a combined 74.5 points scored per game. Fasten your seat belts for a wildly entertaining and high scoring affair. Bet this contest over the total. |
|||||||
11-10-21 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois +2.5 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Ball State @ Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Northern Illinois +2.5 (5*) It’s never a bad thing when your head coach signs a contract extension a day before a game. That’s exactly what happened with Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock just yesterday. This certainly brings a sense of security and positivity to the coaching staff and players. By, the way, after going 0-6 last season in a pandemic shortened campaign, Northern Illinois enters this week leading the MAC West Division with a 4-1 record and is 6-3 overall. Besides their stellar conference record, Northern Illinois pulled off an upset win in their season opener at Georgia Tech and did so as a 19.0-point underdog. Ball State narrowly escaped with a 31-25 win at Akron and didn’t come close to covering as a 20.0-point favorite.  Bet Northern Illinois plus the small number. |
|||||||
11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Bears @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Steelers -7.0 (5*) The Bears are pathetic on offense and that’s been a key contributing factor to them going 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. During that stretch, the Bears lost by an average of 18.7 points per game. Speaking of the Bears anemic offense, they are averaging 10.8 points scored and 233.0 yards gained per game throughout 4 road contests. Chicago is coming off last Sunday’s 33-22 home loss to San Francisco. Since 2019 and all under current head coach Matt Nagy, Chicago has gone 0-5 SU&ATS as a road underdog and following a loss in their previous game. Their average point-spread was +8.1 in those contests and they lost by a decisive margin of 15.6 points game. Many counted the Steelers out after their poor 1-3 start. However, they’ve rebounded to win their last 3. Their defense has been outstanding over their current win streak in allowing just 16.3 points and 329.7 yards per game. By the way, since 2018 and all under present head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or more following 2 or more wins in a row, and they won by a substantial margin of 19.8 points per game. Bet Pittsburgh minus the points. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams OVER 52.5 | 28-16 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Titans @ Rams 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Over 52.5 (5*) The Rams are in the top 5 in many offensive statistical categories heading into this week. I look for Mathew Stafford to have a huge day against a Tennessee defense that has been poor for 2 seasons now. Specifically speaking, the Rams are #4 in passing yards per game at 301.8 while Tennessee is #24 this season while allowing 267.4 passing yards per game. The Titans will unequivocally miss star running back Derek Henry who is out an indefinite period due to suffering an injury in last week’s 34-31 win at Indianapolis. It’s time for players like A.J. Brown and Julio Jones to take on a larger role which they’re fully capable of doing. Additionally, quarterback Ryan Tannehill needs to be a playmaker instead of game manager which he’s displayed the ability to do so at times throughout his NFL career. The Rams have averaged 34.7 points scored and 402.0 yards gained per game over their previous 3 contests. Conversely, Tennessee has scored 33.0 points per game throughout their last 4 games. Bet this game to go over the total. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
Chargers @ Eagles 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Eagles +1.5 (10*) You may be surprised to know that the Chargers are dead last in the NFL at stopping the run. They rank #32 in rushing yards allowed per game (159.6) and #32 at rush yards allowed per attempt (5.1). Furthermore, over their last 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 186.0 yards rushing per game and that alone was a major contributing factor to them entering this week on a 2-game losing streak. Philadelphia should be able to the run the ball with a huge amount of success, not only because their opponent is inept stopping it, but because they’ve had some degree of success in doing so up until now. The Eagles are coming off a 44-6 blowout win over Detroit last week and amassed 236 rushing years. The Eagles enter this week #7 in offensive rushing yards per game (131.7) and #4 in yards per rushing attempts (5.0). Any NFL home team (Eagles) with a win percentage of .333 or better, coming off a road win by 23 points or more, versus an opponent (Chargers) coming off a home game where both teams scored 24 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 33-2 SU (94.2%) since 1983. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance when considering the current point-spread. Bet the Eagles for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Vikings +6 v. Ravens | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Vikings +6.0 (5*) Minnesota has enough offensive juice to stay in this game throughout. Especially when considering, the Ravens defense has allowed 491 yards or more in 3 of its first 7 games. The Vikings look to rebound off a home favorite 20-16 loss to Dallas last Sunday. Conversely, Baltimore is coming off a 41-17 blowout loss to Cincinnati in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset but taking the generous points we’re being afforded is a winning ticket. Any NFL team (Vikings) playing after Game 5 of their season as a road underdog of 3.0 to 6.5 and is coming off a loss, versus an opponent (Ravens) coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those teams going 8-0 ATS and 7-1 SU since 2003. Bet the Vikings plus the points. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +4 | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Panthers 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Panthers +4.0 (5*) The Patriots are coming last Sunday’s 27-24 road win over the Chargers which improved their season record to 4-4. Now they go on the road again but opposed to last week they find themselves as a favorite and not underdog. Much ado will be made in NFL betting circles about the availability of Carolina starting quarterback Sam Darnold. However, I’m here to tell you there’s very little if any drop off when they go to backup P.J. Walker. Especially when considering how Darnold has performed in recent weeks. With that being said, it’s the Carolina defense that will earn us a cover. The Panthers are allowing just 19.9 points and 295.6 yards per game. The Panthers are coming off last Sunday’s 19-13 win at Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.5-point underdog. Since Matt Ruhle became Carolina’s head coach in 2019, the Panthers have gone a profitable 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU following an underdog SU win. Bet the Panthers plus the points. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Bengals | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
Browns @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Browns +2.5 (5*) For starters, the Browns are 5- versus the Bengals over the past 3 years which includes a 2-game sweep last season. Cincinnati showed their inexperience on handling success after last week’s 34-31 road loss to the Jets in a game they closed as a substantial 11.5point favorite and dropped their record to 5-2 (.625). The Browns are coming off a disappointing 15-10 home favorite loss to Pittsburgh. The combination of those results and existing data leads to a never lost NFL betting angle which is displayed below. Any NFL team (Browns) that’s coming off a SU favorite loss in which they failed to cover by 9.0-points or more, and they’re playing after Game 5 of their season, versus an opponent (Bengals) coming off a road game in which both teams scored 24 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .625 or worse, resulted in those team like the Browns going 11-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a healthy 16.0 points per game. Bet the Browns plus the small number. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Arkansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Arkansas -4.0 (10*) Mississippi State is coming off last Saturday’s home win over nationally ranked Kentucky. That victory was key in the Bulldogs being ranked #17 in the first college football playoff poll. Yet they’re an underdog against an Arkansas team that failed to crack the Top 25 in that very same poll, and with an identical 5-3 record as they possess. Arkansas is also coming off a bye week which is always an advantage when facing an unrested opponent at this point of the season. Both teams defenses are solid. Mississippi State has passed on an enormous 72.4% of their offensive snaps this season. Conversely, Arkansas has run the ball on 65.7% of their offensive snaps this season. However, the Razorbacks still average over 200 passing yards per game and extremely impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The defenses will cancel each other out, Arkansas is unequivocally the more balanced offensive team. That will be the key to us attaining a successful cover. Bet Arkansas minus the points for my SEC Game of the Year. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Purdue +3.0 (5*) Why is the #3 ranked team in the latest college football poll Michigan State (8-0) only a 3-point favorite at unranked Purdue? I’ll tell you why, because like myself the oddsmakers don’t believe Michigan State is as good as their record and current ranking indicates. Besides, I can’t imagine that the Spartans can come close to matching the level of intensity they displayed at home last week against bitter rival and still #7 ranked Michigan. Furthermore, Michigan State needed to overcome a sizable 16-point 2nd half deficit on their way to a 37-33 win. Purdue is coming off last week’s 28-23 win at Nebraska which leaves them 1 win away from bowl eligibility. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Purdue pull off an outright upset in this spot. Nevertheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points being given to us. Bet Purdue plus the points. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -133 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: North Carolina -133 (5*) Here we have the #9 team in the latest College Football Playoff Poll who is sporting a perfect 8-0 record, and they’re an underdog versus a perceived mediocre 4-4 opponent. This appears to be a monumental trap that I’m falling for. Furthermore, even with their unbeaten record, Wake Forest has allowed an alarmingly high 36.7 points and 538.3 yards per game during 3 road contests. North Carolina entered this year ranked #10 in the AP Preseason Poll. Obviously, the Tar Heels have vastly underachieved thus far. What better way to atone from being a major disappointment than to upset a nationally ranked Top 10 opponent who is also an in-state rival. A majority of North Carolina’s struggles this season have come on the road. The Tar Heels are 4-1 at home while averaging 45.2 points scored and 515.2 yards gained per contest. North Carolina is coming off a hard fought 44-34 loss at Notre Dame last week. The good news is they’re 3-0 SU this season following a loss and averaged 54.3 points scored per game. Bet on North Carolina as a money line wager. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | SMU v. Memphis +5 | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Memphis +5.0 (5*) SMU is coming off their first loss of the season 44-37 at Houston. SMU is a quick tempo high scoring team. In any event, the Mustangs are vulnerable defensively and that equation has been a familiar theme during recent seasons. Their defensive ineptness places an inordinate amount of pressure on its offense to be near perfect on a weekly basis. It’s extremely difficult for a team like SMU subscribing to that formula without slipping up on 2-3 occasions over the course of a season. Memphis hasn’t played up to their standards this season, and as a result, the Tigers are currently 4-4. Nonetheless, they are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming against #16 UTSA (8-0), and even then it came by a slim 3-point margin. As a matter of fact, Memphis has gone an outstanding 30-2 SU in their last 32 at home which includes 6-0 ATS as an underdog with 5 of those resulting in SU wins. Memphis is also 18-1 in their last 19 conference home games with their lone setback transpiring back in 2018 which was a narrow 1-point loss to then nationally ranked Central Florida. It also should be noted, 3 of the Tigers 4 losses have come by 6 points or fewer. Bet Memphis plus the points. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +15 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Nebraska 12:00 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Nebraska +15.0 (5*) Nebraska enters this Big 10 showdown with #5 Ohio State with a disappointing 3-6 record. However, all 6 of those losses have come by 8 points or fewer. That includes losses to #3 Michigan State by 3, #7 Michigan by 3, #8 Oklahoma by 7, and #20 Minnesota by 7. Even more compelling is the fact that they have outgained their 9 opponents by an average of 121.7 yards per game. Additionally, all 3 of Nebraska’s wins have come at home. Despite the disparity in these team’s records, Nebraska is battle tested and more than capable of giving Ohio State all they can handle. Bet Nebraska plus the points. |
|||||||
11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College UNDER 48.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Boston College 7:30 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Under 48.5 (5*) Boston College enters this week on a 4-game losing streak. During that abysmal losing stretch, Boston College scored 14 points or fewer on each occasion. Boston College has also played 5-0 to the under this season when their total was 56.5 or less, and there was just a combined 36.0 points scored per game. Conversely, Virginia Tech has played 6-0 to the under this season when their total was 47.5 or greater. Those 6 contests had a combined 38.3 points scored per game. I look for this matchup to be an old-fashioned slugfest where the defenses are dominant. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
|||||||
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Jets @ Colts 8:20 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Colts -10.0 (5*) The Jets are coming off a shocking upset of Cincinnati last week and they did so as an 11.5-point home underdog. They piled up an enormous 511 yards of total offense against a Cincinnati defense which had been stout up until that point. Their previous high was 355 yards in their only other win which came as a home underdog against Tennessee. Now the Jets go on the road where they’re 0-3 SU&ATS this season and were outscored by a massive 24.0 points per game. Additionally, since 2019, the Jets are 4-12 ATS as a road underdog and were outscored by an average of 15.2 points per contest. Jets quarterback Mike White had an awesome NFL starting debut last week while throwing for over 400 yards. However, the Colts will be the first team he’ll face who had extensive tape on him to look at and I don’t anticipate him coming closing to matching his tremendous performance just 4 days ago. Not to mention, White will be making his first NFL road start and doing so on an abbreviated work week. The Colts are coming off a disappointing 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The good news, since 2019 and all under current head coach Frank Reich, the Colts are 5-0 SU&ATS immediately after a straight up favorite loss with an average victory margin of 13.2 points per game. The Colts enter this week with an uninspiring 3-5 record. Nevertheless, their 5 losses have come against opponents that presently have a combined record of 21-9 (.700). Bet the Colts minus the points. |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -8.5 | 52-49 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo 7:00 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Toledo -8.5 (5*) Toledo is a deceiving 4-4 this season. The Rockets suffered 3 of their 4 defeats by 3-points or fewer which included 32-29 at #8 Notre Dame. Toledo is coming off an impressive 34-15 win over Western Michigan and did so as a 1.5-point home underdog. These teams met at Eastern Michigan last season and Toledo walked away with a 45-28 win. Any college football conference home favorite of 3.5 to 11.0 with a win percentage of .444 or better, and they’re coming off a home underdog SU win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent playing with revenge, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 19.5 points per game. Bet on Toledo minus the points. |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Giants +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
NY Giants @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Giants +10.5 (5*) For starters, Kansas City has gone 0-7 ATS in their previous 7 regular season home games with all coming as a favorite and lost 3 of those contests straight up. That includes 2 straight home losses this year to the Chargers and Bills. The Chiefs are coming off a dismal performance at Tennessee in which they were blown out 27-3 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Chiefs were a -2 turnover margin in the lass and that now makes 5 straight games in which they had less takeaways than their opponents had. As a matter of fact, during the Chiefs last 6 games in which they went 2-4, Kansas City has an atrocious -12 turnover margin. The Giants are coming off an encouraging 25-3 home win over Carolina this past weekend. During that win, they held the Panthers offense to only 173 total yards and was +1 in the turnover department. You may be surprised to know that since 9/23/2018 the Giants have gone an extremely profitable 16-4 ATS as a road underdog. Tightening that impressive money-making streak up even further, during that identical stretch they were 12-1 ATS as a non-division road underdog of 14.0 or less and won 5 of those contests straight up. Any road NFL pick/underdog that was a +1 or better in turnover margin during its previous game, and they’re facing an opponent who had -1 or worse turnover margin in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those road underdogs going 33-4 ATS (89.2%) since 2017. Furthermore, those road teams also won 18 of those 37 games straight up and their average point-spread was +6.3. Bet the Giants plus the points. |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings -3 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
Dallas @ Minnesota 8:20 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (10*) As per usual, Dallas is certain to attract a sizable amount of support from a betting perspective in this contest. They enter this stand alone nationally televised primetime game on a 5-0 SU&ATS streak while outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per contest. Yet, here they are as a 3.0-point underdog versus a 3-3 Minnesota team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog and I’m not falling for the trap. Additionally, since 2019, Dallas is 0-6 SU&ATS coming off a win and when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0 and lost by an average of 11.8 points per game. This is still a porous Dallas defense in my opinion. They’re allowing 24.3 points and 381.2 yards per game. Those defensive numbers could be even worse if not for the fact they’ve forced 14 turnovers in their first 6 games. They’ll be facing a Minnesota team that have averaged less than 1 turnover committed per game. Minnesota is one of just a few teams that can come close to matching the Cowboys offensive explosiveness. The Vikings are 5th in the NFL when it comes to total offense at 414.2 yards gained per game. The Vikings 3 losses have come against Arizona, Cleveland, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 16-5. Furthermore, those 3 defeats came by a combined 11 points. The Vikings are much better than their 3-3 record indicates, and this current point-spread exemplifies that. Moreover, since Mike Zimmer has taken over as the Vikings head coach, Minnesota has gone an impressive 17-7 SU and 19-4 ATS at home versus non-division opponents with a win percentage of .375 or better. Bet Minnesota minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +4.5 | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: New Orleans +4.5 (5*) I am not going to waste your time by attempting to poke holes in the Tampa Bay resume. I’d rather make a case from another angle and that’s New Orleans as an underdog during Sean Payton’s head coaching tenure. Since 2018, New Orleans has gone 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 2.0-points or greater under Payton. Furthermore, the Saints have gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 regular season contests versus Tampa Bay and won by an average of 16.8 points per game. Furthermore, New Orleans is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 at home following a win and versus an opponent off a win. Bet on New Orleans plus the points. |
|||||||
10-31-21 | 49ers v. Bears +4 | 33-22 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
San Francisco @ Chicago 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Chicago +4.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that since 2019, San Francisco has gone an abysmal 1-9 ATS when facing teams with a losing record. They will be facing a 3-4 Bears team on Sunday. Furthermore, since the start of last season, the 49ers are 1-6 SU versus teams with a losing record. The 49ers opened the season 2-0 and both wins occurred on the road. However, those victories came over Detroit and Philadelphia who are currently a combined 2-12 this season. Since that time, the 49ers have gone 0-4 SU&ATS and they were favorite in 3 of those contests. The Bears have been profitable within this point-spread parameter as a home underdog in recent years. As a matter of fact, since 12/21/2014, Chicago is 15-4 ATS as a home underdog of 3.0 or greater versus all teams not named Green Bay. Chicago’s 4 losses this season have come against opponents that presently have a combined 22-6 record. Conversely 2 of their 3 wins came over Cincinnati (5-2) and Las Vegas (5-2). Bet Chicago plus the points. |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Indianapolis 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Indianapolis -2.5 (5*) Despite this being a division game, this is a classic flat spot for Tennessee. After all, the Titans are coming off wins over Kansas City and Buffalo in their last 2 games and accomplished both as a home underdog. Conversely, after an unexpected 0-3 start to the season, the Colts have rebounded to win 3 of its last 4 and is currently on a 2-game win streak. Their only loss in that sequence came in overtime at Baltimore. The Colts are an opportunistic team has a turnover margin of +9 for the season and look for that to be a key in attaining the win and cover. Bet Indianapolis minus the points. |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Fresno State v. San Diego State | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET Game# 213-214 Play On: Fresno State (Pick/-110) Granted San Diego State is 7-0 and ranked #21 nationally. I still firmly believe that 6-2 Fresno State is the better team in this matchup, and definitively so offensively. Fresno State is battle tested on the road after already winning at UCLA as a double-digit underdog and having taken #7 Oregon down to the wire in a 7-point loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Aztecs most notable win on their resume was an overtime 2-point home win over Utah and all 7 of its wins have come over currently unranked opponents. This is a Fresno team that averages 35.6 points scored and 479.6 yards gained per game. On the other hand, over their previous 3 contests San Diego State has averaged 23.3 points scored and 268.3 yards gained per game. Bet on Fresno State. |
|||||||
10-30-21 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | 34-44 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: North Carolina +3.5 (10*) Notre Dame is coming last Saturday 31-16 win over USC, and they covered as a 7.5-point home favorite. That victory improved their season record to 6-1. Nonetheless, 3 of their 6 wins came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, North Carolina is coming off a 45-42 home win over Miami Fla. This sets up an outstanding college football betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football underdog of 3.5 or less (North Carolina) that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 48 or less, versus an opponent (North Carolina) coming off a home favorite ATS win, and they have at least 1 loss on the season, resulted in those small away underdogs going 25-1 ATS (96.1%) since 2006 and they won 24 of those 26 contests straight up. Bet on North Carolina plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State -114 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: Mississippi State -114 Mississippi State has won their last 5 at home versus Kentucky and outscored them by an average of 18.4 points per game. The Bulldogs are coming off last Saturday’s 45-6 blowout win at Vanderbilt which improved their season record to 4-3. Yet, the oddsmakers deem this to be an even matchup despite Kentucky being 6-1 and ranked #12 nationally. Kentucky’s first loss occurred last week at #1 Georgia 30-13. Any college football conference home team (Mississippi State) that’s coming off a conference away win by 16 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .250 or better, versus an opponent (Kentucky) coming off a conference away loss, resulted in those home teams going 31-4 straight up since 2017. Furthermore, if those opponents had a win percentage of .600 or better the straight up betting angle improves to 10-0 with an average victory margin of 21.4 points per game. Bet Mississippi State on the money line. |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech -4 | 26-17 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech 12:00 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Georgia Tech -4.0 (5*) Virginia Tech has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and all those took place at home. You can give them an excuse in losses versus #11 and #17 Pittsburgh who have a combined record of 12-2 this season. But last week’s 41-36 loss to Syracuse in a game they blew a 9-point lead with less than 3 minutes to play was of the gut-wrenching variety. During this 3-game losing streak, the Hokies have allowed 33.7 points and 450.0 yards per game. Georgia Tech is coming last Saturday’s 48-40 loss at Virginia. Nevertheless, they have gone a perfect 3-0 this season following a loss and won by 18.3 points per contest. The Yellowjackets offense has shown vast improvement throughout their previous 3 contests while amassing 30.7 points scored and 480.7 yards gained per game. Bet Georgia Tech minus the points. |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -3 | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Wisconsin 12:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Wisconsin -3.0 (5*) So let me make sure I get this right. We have an Iowa team that’s coming off a home upset 24-7 loss to Purdue at which time they were ranked #2, playing with a week of rest, and finds themselves as an underdog versus a 4-3 unranked Wisconsin team. If it smells like a rat, looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. The sportsbooks just aren’t that generous or kind. This is a classic example of when thinking like an oddsmaker will pay dividends. By the way, Wisconsin is coming off last Saturday’s easy 30-13 win at Purdue and held the Boilermakers to a mere 206 yards of total offense while also forcing 5 turnovers. Comparatively speaking, during Iowa’s home loss to Purdue 2 weeks ago they allowed the Boilermakers to rack up 464 yards of total offense. Bet Wisconsin minus the points. |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Green Bay @ Arizona 8: 20 PM ET PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Arizona -6.5 (5*) Aaron Rogers will be handcuffed tonight without his top target Davante Adams not available. All Adams has done through the first 7 games is haul in 52 pass receptions for 744 yards and average 14.3 yards per catch. Additionally, one of his secondary targets Alan Lazard will not dress as well. Rogers has been sacked a rather high 17 times this season and he’ll be facing an Arizona defense who’s sacked the quarterback 19 times. Additionally, despite their 6-1 record, you may be surprised to know that Green Bay ranks #23 in total offense while gaining only 337.9 yards per game. Conversely, Arizona is #4 in total defense after allowing just 316.7 yards per game through its first 7 contests. Not only have the Cardinals been stout defensively but they’re also dynamic offensively. It all starts with Kyler Murray who has passed for 2002 yards and 17 touchdowns while running for 3 scores as well. Through his first 2 plus NFL seasons, Murray has run for 1489 yards and 17 touchdowns. Arizona possesses the #4 scoring offense at 32.4 points scored per game and is #7 in total yards at 402.1 yards gained per contest. You can make a strong case that the Cardinals are the superior team on both sides of the ball in this matchup of 2 NFC heavyweights. Arizona is coming off a 31-5 win over Houston this past Sunday and covered as a huge 18.0-point home favorite. Any NFL Thursday home favorite of 6.0 or more that’s playing before Game 13 of the season, and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win, resulted in those Thursday home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1994 and they won by an average of 13.6 points per game. Bet Arizona minus the points. |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Tampa Bay -11.5 (5*) One of my cardinal rules has been to never lay a double-digit number in the NFL. However, this is a rare exception. The Chicago offense has amassed more rushing yards than passing yards in each of their previous 5 games. That’s a real rarity in the modern-day NFL. That’s also an issue since the will be facing a Tampa Bay defense that’s #1 in the NFL against the run in allowing a mere 54.8 yards rushing per game. The Tampa run defense was also #1 against the run last season as well at 80.6 yards allowed per game. How about Chicago’s pass offense? Well, I’m glad you asked. Their averaging a pathetic 117.2 yards passing per game which is dead last in the NFL and by a substantial margin. The Bears have also allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked a league high 22 times. The Chicago defense is #7 in total defense. Nonetheless, against a relentless and explosive offensive attack that Tampa Bay possesses, they’ll get completely worn down as the game progresses. Additionally, since 2019 the Bears have gone 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14.0 and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. This will be the 3rd time that Tampa Bay is a double-digit home favorite since 2019. They covered each of the previous 2 and won by a mammoth 25.5 points per game. The Bucs are 3-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by a massive 29.3 points per game. They’ll be facing a Bears team that has averaged a paltry 13.3 points scored per game in 3 road contests. Bet Tampa Bay minus the points. |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Falcons -122 v. Dolphins | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Miami 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Atlanta -122 (5*) You can make the case that picking a winner in this game comes down to the lesser of 2 evils. My take is there are other underlying factors that leans heavily toward the road favorite Falcons. For starters, Atlanta will be playing with a week of rest and is coming off a 27-20 win over the Jets in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Atlanta outgained the Jets in total offense that contest by a decisive 450-230. On the other hand, Miami has lost 5 games in a row and hit rock bottom in last week’s 23-20 loss to a winless Jacksonville team. Furthermore, this is a mentally fragile Miami team. The front office is actively pursuing a trade to bring quarterback Deshaun Watson in via trade and Tua being included as part of a 3-team deal. Lastly, Miami wasn’t scheduled for a bye week after playing in Europe last week and that’s a rarity. Bet Atlanta on the money line at -140 or less or on the point-spread at -3.0 or fewer. |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Under 46.0 (10*) Cincinnati has seen each of its last 5 games go under the total and there was a combined 41.6 points scored per contest. Under current head coach Zack Taylor, Cincinnati has now played 10-2 to the under in Games 1 through 8 of their season and there was a combined 41.6 points scored per contest. Cincinnati has averaged only 9.0 points scored per contests in their last 4 meetings versus Baltimore, and 3 of those stayed under the total. The Bengals defense has played well this season while allowing 18.5 points and 331.5 yards per game. Cincinnati has played 3-0 to the under in road contests this season and held those opponents to just 13.7 points scored per game. Baltimore is coming off an impressive 34-6 home win over the Chargers. It was by far the best performance by the Ravens defense to date when considering the opponent. They held the explosive Chargers offense to just 208 yards. Since 2019, Baltimore has played 5-1 to the under at home following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer. Bet on this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Utah @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) Since starting the season 1-2, Utah has reeled off 3 straight wins and all came versus conference opponents. On the other hand, Oregon State will be in a sour mood after suffering a 31-24 upset loss at Washington State 2 weeks ago in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-2 with their only other setback occurring at #25 Purdue 30-21 during their season opener. The Beavers are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 21.0 points per game. Oregon State has rushed for 242 yards or more in each of their previous 5 games. The Beavers defense has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 92 yards or less rushing. After convincing wins over USC and Arizona State in their last 2 games, Utah will be vulnerable to come up flat on Saturday. Meanwhile, Oregon State had 2 weeks to prepare for this home contest. Bet on Oregon State plus the points. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force -3 | 20-14 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: Air Force -3.0 (5*) We have an unranked Air Force team (6-1) as a favorite over #22 and undefeated San Diego State (6-0). With all due respected to those who vote in the national polls, but I will always trust the oddsmakers ability to post an accurate line compared their ability to rank teams, and especially so when it’s beyond the Top 10. Air Force will enter this game on a 4-game win streak. Any home team with a point-spread of +12.0 to -12.0 that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they’re facing an opponent (San Diego State) coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those home teams going 23-2 ATS and 22-3 SU since 2017. Bet on Air Force minus the small number. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Nevada v. Fresno State -3.5 | 32-34 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
Nevada @ Fresno State 7:00 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Fresno State -3.5 (5*) This is an unheralded but extremely intriguing game between 2 very good Mountain West Conference teams. However, I am more impressed with the Fresno State resume when comparing it to Nevada. Fresno State had a huge upset win at UCLA earlier this season as a double-digit dog and gave #10 Oregon all they can handle in a 31-24 road loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Bulldogs will also be out to revenge losses to Nevada in each of the previous 2 seasons. Both teams can score a lot of points. Nevertheless, I like the defense of Fresno much better than that of Nevada’s, and that will be a key reason why we’ll cover this contest. Bet on Fresno State minus the points. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog in this spot with all being considered. After all, we have #8 and undefeated Oklahoma State as a touchdown underdog against an unranked team Iowa State with a season mark of 4-2. The Cyclones have underachieved this season after being a preseason Top 10 team considered to be a legitimate college football playoff contender. However, they were knocked off at #11 Iowa (6-1) and at #20 Baylor (6-1). They won’t be a playoff team but remains a serious Big 12 title threat if the can win on Saturday. I said it before and I will say it again, Oklahoma State is a fraudulent Top 10 team. The Cowboys 6 wins this season have all come by 11 or fwer and by an average of 7.0 points per game. This is a classic example of me trusting the oddsmakers in setting an accurate line compared to pollsters ranking teams. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Syracuse +3.5 v. Virginia Tech | 41-36 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech 12:30 PM ET Game# 341-342 Play On: Syracuse +3.5 (5*) I like the offensive identity since Syracuse inserted Garrett Schrader as their starting quarterback. They have become a run first team and they have executed that part of their game quite well. However, after a 3-1 start to the season, the Orange have dropped 3 games in a row. The silver lining is that each of those defeats came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, Virginia Tech is coming off a lopsided 28-7 home loss to Pittsburgh. Any college football road underdog of 4.0 or less (Syracuse) that’s coming off back-to-back losses by 6 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Virginia Tech) coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those road underdogs going 13-0 ATS and 12-0-1 SU since 1982. Bet on Syracuse plus the points. |
|||||||
10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +4 | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
San Jose State @ UNLV 11:00 PM ET Game# 411-412 Play On: UNLV +4.0 (5*) San Jose State is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road this season and averaged just 10.0 points scored per game. As a matter of fact, the Spartans have scored 17 points or fewer in 5 of their 6 games versus FBS opponents this season. UNLV is 0-6 thus far. However, they’ve shown vast improvement over their last 3 games. They lost all 3 of those contests by 8 points or fewer and against respectable opponents (Fresno State, UTSA, and Utah State). UNLV has played a far more difficult schedule than the one San Jose State has faced. This is the week the Rebels get over the hump. Bet UNLV plus the points. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
Dallas @ New England 4:25 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: New England +3.5 (5*) I have seen this scenario too many times over the past 20 years with Bill Belichick. He’s brilliant in devising successful defensive game plans when facing dominant and explosive offenses. The Cowboys offense certainly qualifies in the regard as they enter this week averaging 34.0 points scored and 439.6 yards gained per game. Despite their 2-3 record, New England still field a formidable defense that allows just 18.4 points and 317.4 yards per game. Conversely, Dallas has allowed 23.4 points and 390.4 yards per game. Nonetheless, those numbers could be much worse if it weren’t for the fact, they’ve forced 12 turnovers through 5 games. New England rookie quarterback Mack Jones and his offense will be able to move the ball on Dallas and will be extremely cognizant of the opposition’s uncanny ability to force turnovers. By the way, since 10/14/2021 and all with Belichick as their head coach, New England has gone 7-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog of 4.0 or less, and they won by a decisive average of 12.9 points per game.  I like New England to win this game outright but will gladly take the points as an additional bonus and not get greedy. Bet the Patriots plus the points. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Packers v. Bears +6 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Packers @ Bears 1:00 PM ET Game # 255-256 Play On: Chicago +6.0 (5*) Green Bay will be a popular bet on Sunday especially when it comes to public perception. Case in point, this line opened at 4.5 and is now up to 6.0 with an overwhelming number of bets and money being placed on Green Bay. However, despite how bad the Chicago offense has looked this season they’re still 3-2 thus far and have won 2 in a row. The Chicago defense has been the deciding factor in their 3 wins. During those victories they allowed 13.3 points and 297.7 yards per game. Chicago is also 2-0 SU&ATS at home thus . Furthermore, since 10/4/2015, the Bears have gone an extremely profitable 15-2 ATS when playing before Game 15 of the season and as a home underdog of 3.0 or greater. The average line in those 17 games was 4.1 and Chicago won 9 of those contests straight up. I’m going with a hardcore contrarian approach in this one. Bet the Bears plus points. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
Chargers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Ravens -2.5 (10*) Sometimes it’s just best to keep it simple. The Ravens have been of the best running teams in the NFL over the past few seasons. This year is no different as they’re averaging a robust 148.8 yards rushing per game. That’s good for 4th best in the league. Conversely, the Chargers are dead last in rushing yards allowed per contest at 157.6. As a matter of fact, during last Sunday’s win over Cleveland, they allowed the Browns to rush for 230 yards and average a massive 6.6 yards per carry. Additionally, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been red hot in the air during the previous 2 games after going 59-80 (73.8%) and throwing for an enormous 741 yards. The Chargers are coming off a 47-42 win over Cleveland last week. Since 1980, there has been just 28 regular season games in which a team won while allowing 40 points or greater, and only 12 of those teams were installed as an underdog in their next game. When pairing that up with Baltimore coming off a 31-25 win over Indianapolis in their previous game, and it presents a rare and unbeaten NFL betting situation which is displayed below. Any NFL regular season underdog (Chargers) that’s coming off a win in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Ravens) that scored 28 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those underdogs going 0-7 SU&ATS since 1980. Those 7 underdogs lost by a decisive margin of 20.1 points per game. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Air Force +4 v. Boise State | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show | |
Air Force @ Boise State 9:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On: Air Force +4.0 (5*) Boise State is coming off last week’s 26-17 upset win at then #10 BYU. That evened the Broncos season record at 3-3. However, Boise State is 0-2 SU&ATS following a win this season and both contests occurred at home. Boise State has allowed 235 yards or more rushing in 3 of its 6 games, and that’s 98th out of 130 FBS teams in that statistical category. That presents an issue for the Broncos defense since they’ll be facing an Air Force team who averages 341.3 yards rushing per game which is best in the country. Speaking of Air Force, they enter this week with a stellar 5-1 record. Their only loss happened in Week 3 when they fell 49-45 at Utah State. Casting that contest aside, the Falcons allowed 14 points or less and 286 yards or fewer in each of their other 5 games. It also must be noted, Air Force is 2nd in the country when it comes to offensive time of possession at 37:43 per game. The opposing offense can’t score if they’re on the sidelines and that’s been a key contributor to those 5 impressive defensive efforts. Lastly, Air Force will be playing with big time revenge after losing its last 4 encounters with Boise State. I love this spot for the away underdog. Bet Air Force plus the points. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Iowa State v. Kansas State +6.5 | 33-20 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Kansas State 7:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: Kansas State +6.5 (5*) Kansas State has been a profitable conference home underdog in recent seasons. Specifically speaking, since 2011 Kansas State is 9-3 SU&ATS as a conference home underdog of 7.0 or less. Conversely, since 2019, Iowa State has gone 0-4 ATS as a conference away favorite of 7.0 or less and lost 3 of those contests straight up. Additionally, Kansas State has won 7 consecutive home games versus Iowa State. Kansas State got off to a 3-0 start but unfortunately dropped their last 2 games. There is a silver lining to those losses when considering they came against #12 Oklahoma State (4-0) and #4 Oklahoma (6-0). It’s not like they were blown out as their defeat at Oklahoma State was 31-20, and in their previous game the Wildcats lost 37-31 to Oklahoma but covered as a 12.0-point home underdog. The Wildcats will be playing with big time revenge after being throttled 45-0 at Iowa State last season. Iowa State was ranked in the Top 10 preseason rankings. However, they’re off to a 3-2 start and they’re currently unranked. The Cyclones are coming off a 59-7 home rout of Kansas. Iowa State is 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Cyclones lone 3 wins came over Northern Iowa (FCS level team) 16-10 in a game they were a 31.5-point favorite, Kansas (1-4), and UNLV (0-5). Any college football conference home underdog of 4.0 to 10.5 points (Kansas State) that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a home loss by 9 points or fewer in which they covered as an underdog, versus an opponent (Iowa State) with a winning record, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2002. Those underdogs also went 13-7 SU in those games as well. Bet Kansas State plus the points. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Purdue +12 v. Iowa | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
Purdue @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Purdue +12.0 (5*) Iowa is coming off a comeback win at home last Saturday versus then #4 Penn State and had to overcome a 17-3 deficit to do so. However, they were very fortunate that Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford was injured in that game, and from that point on the excellent Iowa defense was able to close the gates. Last week’s game received a fair share of hype and attracted national attention. I am looking at Iowa being vulnerable physically and mentally this week against a middle of the road conference opponent. Purdue will be playing with rest after sustaining disappointing 20-13 home loss to Minnesota 2 weeks ago. That defeat dropped their season record to a still respectable 3-2. The Iowa defense has received penty of praise and rightfully so. Nonetheless, the Purdue stop unit has flown under the radar while allowing just 15.4 points and 299.6 yards per game. As good as Iowa has been this season, their offense has amassed only 303 yards or fewer in 4 of 6 games. The Boilermakers have defeated Iowa in 3 of the last 4 meetings and were 3-0 ATS as an underdog in those matchups. Bet Purdue plus the points. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Texas A&M v. Missouri +9 | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Texas A&M @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: Missouri +9.0 (5*) Texas A&M is coming off last week’s huge upset win as a 18.5-point home underdog over then top ranked Alabama. Despite that colossal upset, the Aggies are just 1-2 in SEC action while allowing 28.0 points and 467.7 yards per game. The one thing that 3-3 Missouri has done consistently well this season is move the football. The Tigers are averaging 37.8 points scored and 467.0 yards gained per game. Another potential contributing factor to the home underdog covering this contest is turnovers. Missouri has +4 turnover margin thus far while Texas A&M is at -4. I’m looking for A&M to not even come close to matching their intensity they displayed at home versus Alabama last week. The college football betting angle below further supports that prediction. Any college football conference home underdog of 11.5 or less, versus an opponent (Texas A&M) with a win percentage of .800 or worse that’s coming off a conference home underdog of 10.0 to 22.0 points straight up win, resulted in those conference home underdogs going 20-3 ATS (87%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 20-11 SU in those contests. Bet Missouri plus the points. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 32-24 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 173-174 Play On: Texas -3.5 (10*) #25 Texas (4-2) hosts #12 Oklahoma State (5-0). Despite being the lower ranked team and having 2 losses they find themselves as a favorite versus unbeaten Oklahoma State.  I firmly believe that Oklahoma State is a fraudulent #12 ranked team. All 5 of their wins have come by 14 points or fewer and their average margin of victory has come by just 6.8 points per contest. That’s especially concerning when looking at their first 2 games which were home wins over Missouri State (FCS team) by 7 and Tulsa (2-4) by 5. The Longhorns only losses this year came versus #17 Arkansas and #4 Oklahoma. The 55-48 loss to Oklahoma last week was a tough pill to swallow considering they squandered a 21-point lead in that contest. On a positive note, the Texas offense has ben red-hot over their last 3 contests while averaging 50.0 points scored and 523.0 yards gained per game. By the way, Texas has gone 22-2 SU and 16-8 ATS over the last 24 season in games immediately following Oklahoma. Since 2019, the Longhorns are 5-0 SU at home following a loss and won by 19.8 points per game. Through their first 6 games Texas has a +5 turnover margin while Oklahoma State is -2.  Texas is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 39.0 points per game. Bet Texas minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | 28-22 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 34 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia 8:20 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Over 52.0 (5*) Tampa Bay has gone over the total in 4 of 5 games this season and scored 45 points or more twice. The Bucs will be facing an Eagles defense which has allowed 41 and 42 points in 2 of their 5 contests. Tampa Bay is coming off last Sunday’s 45-17 blowout win over Miami. Since 10/6/19, Tampa Bay has played 8-0 to the over following a game in which they scored 40 points or more. The Bucs have played 3-0 to the over this season versus fellow NFC teams and there was a combined average of 63.7 points scored per game. Furthermore, since 9/22/19, Tampa Bay has played 13-1 to the over when there was a total of 46.5 to 54.5 and when facing an opponent with a losing record. It’s been virtually impossible to run the ball effectively versus Tampa Bay this season. However, the Bucs defense ranks dead last in the league when it comes to passing yards allowed per game. The Eagles offense is certainly capable of exposing that weakness and I fully expect them game plan in that direction. Any Thursday NFL away favorite of 6.5 or less with a total of 44.5-52.5, and they have a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .363 or better, resulted in those contests playing 12-0 to the over since 1998. Those 12 contests had a combined average of 60.8 points scored per game. Bet this game over the total. |
|||||||
10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 25-31 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Colts @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Under 46.5 (5*) Baltimore is coming off a 23-7 road win over Denver in a game in which they closed as a 1.0-point underdog. That win improved the Ravens season record to 3-1 (.750). Indianapolis is coming off their first win of the season after last Sunday’s 27-17 victory at Miami. This sets up a profitable NFL totals betting which has been highly successful for the past 37 seasons. Any NFL home team (Ravens) with a total of 42.5 to 48.5 that’s playing after Game 4 of their season, and they’re coming off an away underdog SU win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .550 or worse that allowed 38 points or fewer during its previous contest, resulted in those games playing 35-5 (87.5%) to the under since 1985. Bet this game to go under the total. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chiefs 8:20 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Bills +3.0 (5*) The Kansas City offense is once again a highly explosive unit. However, their defense has been another story. Kansas City has allowed 29 points or more in each of their first 4 games and gave up 457 yards or more 3 times. They’ll be facing a Buffalo offense that over their previous 3 games is averaging 39.3 points scored and 415 yards gained per contest. The only one that’s going to stop the Buffalo offense in this game is Buffalo, and that’s if they derail themselves with penalties or turnovers. The Bills defense is #1 in total yards and points allowed per game during the first quarter of the NFL season. However, they have played some less than stellar quarterbacks to this point. Nevertheless, compared to the Chiefs stop unit, look for Buffalo’s defense to get enough stops at key times. Additionally, the Bills have forced 11 turnovers over their current 3-game win streak, and Kansas City has committed 7 turnovers throughout their previous 3 contests. Since 2019, Buffalo is 13-4 straight up and 12-4-1 ATS in regular season road games. That includes 6-0-1 ATS if they were an underdog of 6.0 or less. Conversely, you may be surprised to know that Kansas City is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at home and lost 3 of those contests straight up. Finally, Buffalo will be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 37-24 loss at Kansas City during last season’s AFC Championship Game. Bet on Buffalo plus the small number. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 29 m | Show | |
Giants @ Cowboys 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Giants +7.0 (5*) Much has been made about Dallas’ defense being much improved. However, the facts remain that they rank 30th in pass defense in allowing 315.3 yards per game and #27 in total defense at 396.3 yards per contest. Those defensive statistics would be much worse if not for the fact they’ve forced 10 turnovers during its first 4 games. You may be surprised to know that the Giants rank 7th in passing offense and have committed only 3 turnovers in their first 4 contests. The Giants will have plenty of momentum heading into this game after a thrilling 27-21 overtime win at New Orleans last Sunday as an 8.0-point underdog. Daniel Jones is coming off his finest day as a pro after going 28-42 (70%) for 402 yards passing. The Giants are just 1-3 but 2 of their losses came by narrow 3 and 1-pont margins. They’ve also covered both of their road games and each as an underdog. Covering on the road is nothing new for New York. Since 10/7/2018, the Giants have gone an incredible 16-1 ATS as a conference away underdog. Bet the Giants plus the points. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 42-47 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Browns @ Chargers 4:05 ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Browns +2.5 (10*) The Chargers are coming off 2 straight division wins over Las Vegas last Monday night and at Kansas City before that. Now they’ll be hosting a dangerous non-division opponent in Cleveland and playing on short rest. After losing their season opener at Kansas City by a narrow 4-point margin, Cleveland has bounced back to win 3 in a row. I look for the Browns to attack the Chargers defense on the ground and be successful in doing so. After all, Cleveland is #1 in rushing offense at 177.0 yards per game. San Diego has permitted their opponents to run for 140 yards per contest which ranks 29th out of 32 NFL teams are 30th in yards permitted per carry at 5.3. Cleveland’s defense is pretty good as well. They’re #2 in total defense at 250.3 yards per game, #4 in scoring defense at 16.8 points allowed per contest and tied for 2nd in sacks with 14. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Saints v. Washington Football Team UNDER 43.5 | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
Washington @ New Orleans 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Under 43.5 (5*) This isn’t the same dynamic New Orleans offense that we’ve witnessed in years past. Through the first 4 weeks of the season, New Orleans is 28th in total offense, #31 in passing yards, and #19 in scoring. They have seen 3 of their first 4 contests go under the total, and its only over came in last week’s loss to the Giants and only because the contest went overtime. On a positive note, New Orleans is #11 in total defense, #5 in scoring defense, and #2 at stopping the run. The Washington defense has been a major disappoint in the first quarter of this season. Especially when considering they were #2 in total defense a season ago and their personnel stayed pretty much intact. If there ever was a spot for them to get well it would bee this week against an underachieving Saints offense. Part of the problem defensively is they’ve been on the field for the 3rd most amount of time with only the Jags and Seahawks being worse. The Washington offensive is in the bottom 3rd of most statistical categories. They’ve been able to sustain drives which is evident by a poor 30.2% third down conversion rate with only Chicago being worse. Bet this game to go under the total. Since 2019, Washington has played 8-0 to the under in Games 5 through 8. Those 8 contests averaged a combined 32.5 points scored per game. New Orleans is currently a 2.5-point favorite in this contest. The Saints have played 9-2 to the under in their last 11 on the road when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0, and that includes 4-0 under when the total was 46.0 or less. Ironically enough, those 4 contests also averaged a combined 32.5 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | LSU +2.5 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
LSU @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 359-360 Play On: LSU +2.5 (5*) Kentucky is coming off a huge home upset win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0 recorded and catapulted them to a #16 ranking. Now they’ll be facing unranked LSU (3-2) and have #2 Georgia on deck and as only a short favorite on their home field. By the way, LSU will be looking to bounce back after a 24-19 home upset loss to Auburn last week. This looks like a prime spot for the underdog LSU Tigers to come up big. Bet LSU plus the points. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan @ Nebraska 7:30 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: Nebraska +3.0 (10*) #9 Michigan is coming off convincing 38-17 win at Wisconsin in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 5-0. Conversely, Nebraska is coming off a 56-7 home blowout win over Nebraska which evened their record at 3-3. Yet, the undefeated and #9 Wolverines are just a 3.0-point favorite versus an unranked team with a .500 record. It’s just never that easy and the college football betting angle listed below exemplifies just that. Play against college football favorite of 4.0 or less (Michigan) that’s playing in Game 6 and has a 5-0 record, and they’re coming off a game in which it covered by 8.5 points or more, versus an opponent (Nebraska) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those undefeated small favorites going 0-8 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all 8 games straight up by an average of 8.4 points per contest. Furthermore, any college football home underdog that’s coming off a conference win by 35 points or more is 12-0 ATS since 2017. Those underdogs also won 9 of those contests straight up. Their 3 SU losses came by a combined 5 points. Bet on Nebraska plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | UTSA v. Western Kentucky -3 | 52-46 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Western Kentucky 7:00 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Western Kentucky -3.0 (5*) This is an extremely fishy line when you consider that Western Kentucky is 1-3 and is the favorite over a UTSA team who’s 5-0. One thing is for sure, the Western Kentucky offense is explosive. They have averaged 39.0 points scored and 52.5 yards gained per game. That includes piling up 560 yards of total offense in last week’s 48-31 loss at #11 Michigan State. Their other defeats came at Army 38-35 and versus Indiana 33-31. During its last 2 games, UTSA gave up 329 yards passing to Memphis and 316 to winless UNLV. That is problematic for the Roadrunners defense since it will be facing an opponent on Saturday that has passed for 365 yards or more in all 4 games they’ve played and includes 435 yards or more in 3 of those contests. Bet Western Kentucky minus the points. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | SMU -13 v. Navy | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
SMU @ Navy 3:30 PM ET Game# 353-354 Play On: SMU -13.0 (5*) If there was any chance of #24 SMU (5-0) overlooking Navy that was put to rest after the Midship upset UCF last week as a 15.0-point home underdog. Additionally, that was Navy’s first victory of the season after beginning with 3 losses. SMU is explosive yet balanced offensively. The Mustangs average 40 runs and 38 passes per game while averaging 42.6 points scored and 532.6 yards gained per contest. SMU will be able to score at will in this contest and jump out to a comfortable lead. That will take Navy out of their offensive comfort zone of running the ball successfully and chewing up clock to shorten games against teams with more talent. Bet on SMU minus the points. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +4.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Rutgers 12:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Rutgers +4.5 (5*) Rutgers has the unenviable task of going through a tough stretch of games after facing #7 Ohio State (4-1) last week and #9 Michigan (5-0) prior to that. They more than held their own in Ann Arbor in a 20-13 loss. However, last week was a different story as they were blown out at home by Ohio State 52-13. Yet, they find themselves as just a 5.5-point home underdog on Saturday versus #11 and undefeated Michigan State (5-0). We’ve already witnessed the public’s overreaction as they’ve wagered heavily on Michigan State. Yet we’ve seen little line movement from the opening number. Bet on Rutgers plus the points. |
|||||||
10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -103 | 32 h 57 m | Show | |
Rams @ Seahawks 8:20 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Seahawks +2.5 (5*) The Rams received a dose of humility during last week’s 37-20 home loss to Arizona. The vaunted Los Angeles defense allowed Arizona to accumulate a substantial 465 yards during that defeat. It was the 2nd straight week their defense was less than inspiring. The week before they allowed Tampa Bay to amass 446 yards of total offense. This will be the 3rd consecutive week they’ll be facing an elite quarterback. Furthermore, the Rams defense hasn’t forced a turnover in each of their previous 2 games., and they will be facing a Seahawks team which hasn’t turned the ball over in 3 consecutive games. Seattle is coming off a 28-21 division win at San Francisco. On a negative note, they allowed the 49ers to rack up 457 yards of total offense in that contest. However, since 2019, Seattle is 8-1 SU following a game in which their defense allowed 450 yards or more, and that includes 4-0 SU&ATS at home. Any NFL team (Seahawks) that’s coming off a division win by 17 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Rams) that’s coming off a home loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those teams going 42-6 (87.5%) straight up since 2012. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Bet on the Seahawks plus the small number. |
|||||||
10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Chargers 8:15 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Raiders +3.0 (5*) Technically this will be a Chargers home game. However, Los Angeles hasn’t yet embraced the Chargers like they have the Rams. Since being moved from San Diego, the Chargers have lost both of their home games versus the Raiders. During those 2 contests and based on fan support, the Raiders faithful have outnumbered Chargers fans despite being the visiting team. I look for that to continue this evening as well, and especially with Las Vegas off to a perfect 3-0 start for a first time since 2002. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is off to a terrific start to the season while averaging a robust 401 yards passing per contest. Carr’s performance line has been key to the Raiders being #1 thus far in total offense at 471.0 yards per game. I also look for the Raiders to run the ball more than they usually do when considering the Chargers are dead last in run defense, and they’re allowing opponents to average an alarmingly high 170.0 yards rushing per game. The Chargers are coming off a 30-24 upset win at Kansas City in a game they were a 7.0-point underdog. That result and the Raiders hot starts doesn’t bode well for the Chargers chances of covering according to my NFL 4D handicapping software database. During NFL regular season action, any team (Raiders) coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’re facing an opponent (Chargers) who is coming off a division win by 2 points or more and as an underdog of 6.0 or greater, resulted in those teams like Las Vegas going 15-0 straight up since 2012. The straight up results take on added significance since this betting angle supports the underdog. Bet the Raiders plus the points. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Steelers +6 v. Packers | 17-27 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Steelers +6.0 (5*) I’m not sold on Green Bay being an elite team. The Packers are 2-1 thus far but they’re allowing 27.7 points per contest. It’s not as if their offense is lighting up either. The Packers are averaging a modest 22.7 points scored and 301.7 yards gained per game which is well below their high standards. After beginning the season with an upset win at Pittsburgh, the Steelers dropped their next 2 games at home to Las Vegas and Cincinnati. The Steelers offense has received some harsh criticism and rightfully so. After all, they have scored just combined 43 points throughout their first 3 games. Nonetheless, since the start of the 2017 season, Pittsburgh has gone 11-3 ATS as an away underdog and that includes 5-0 ATS when they’re +6.0 or greater. Bet the Steelers plus the points. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos +1 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
Ravens @ Broncos 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Denver +1.0 (10*) Baltimore is 2-1 and their wins have come by a combined 3 points. As a matter of fact, they needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal last week from Justin Tucker with no time left to pull out a 19-17 win at Detroit. The Ravens continue to be a run heavy offense that excels in that area. However, they’ll be facing a Denver defense which allowing a mere 59 rushing yards per game. Lamar Jackson has missed two practices this week while nursing a back injury. He will be facing a Denver defense that has allowed quarterbacks to complete a combined 52.4% of their passes thus far. As it is, Jackson has only completed 60.9% of his passes this season. Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. They have held all 3 of their opponents to 13 points or fewer and all of its wins came by 10 point or greater. The Broncos offense has been perfectly balanced through 3 games while attempting 95 runs and an identical 95 passes while gaining a more than respectable 387.3 yards per game. Bet on the Broncos for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 51.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Over 51.5 (5*) These division rivals have played 5-0-1 to the over in their last 6 meetings. Seattle’s defensive struggles have been a key contributor to their disappointing 1-2 start. The Seahawks are allowing 25.0 points and 440.3 yards per contest. Like how they started last season, the Seahawks defense has been especially vulnerable in the air as opponents have averaged a sizable7.4 yards per passing attempt and completed 70.7% of its throws. On a positive note, the Seattle offense is averaging 25.0 points scored and 389.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, San Francisco has averaged 28.7 points scored per game. Bet this game to go over the total. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Browns v. Vikings +2 | 14-7 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Browns @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Vikings +2.0 (5*) The Browns are a quality team, but we must keep in mind that this is a Cleveland franchise which has gone a dismal 10-41 in their last 51 non-division away games, and includes 4-20 in their last 24 versus teams with a losing record. The Browns are 2-1 but their wins have come over Chicago and Houston. Minnesota continued their mastery over opponents in non-division home games under Mike Zimmer with last week’s 30-17 win versus Seattle. The Vikings have now gone 28-9 in their last 37 non-division home games and that includes 27-10 ATS (73%). It was the first win of the season for Minnesota after losing their first 2 games by a combined 4 points against opponents that currently have a combined 6-1 record. The Vikings offense has been impressive throughout their first 3 contests while averaging 29.0 points and 425.0 yards gained per game. Bet the Vikings plus the small number. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Indiana +12.5 v. Penn State | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Indiana +12.5 (5*) Indiana is off to a disappointing 2-2 start when considering they were ranked #16 in the preseason polls. They will be facing a tough task on Saturday on the road at #4 Penn State. However, the Hoosiers are 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Nittany Lions including last season’s thrilling 36-35 win at home. Their 2 SU losses to the Nittany Lions came by narrow margins of 5 and 7 points in games they were a double-digit underdog on each occasion. Penn State has a couple of quality wins thus far over Wisconsin 16-10 and Auburn 28-20. Here’s the kicker, up next for Penn State is a road game at #5 Iowa (5-0). This has all the earmarks of a flat spot for Penn State and a much closer game than most will anticipate. Bet Indiana plus the points. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Baylor +4.0 (5*) Oklahoma State enters this contest with a perfect 4-0 record and ranked 19th in the country. However, their 4 wins have come by a combined 24 points or an average victory margin of 6.0 points per contest. #21 Baylor is also 4-0 and coming off an upset win over Iowa State as a 7.0-point home underdog. Baylor is allowing just 15.8 points and 290.3 yards per game. This 2021 version Oklahoma State football isn’t as talented or dynamic offensively as they’ve been in recent years. This game will go right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever to see Baylor pull off an outright upset. Nevertheless, I won’t get greedy and will graciously accept the points being afforded to me. Bet on Baylor plus the points for a 5* wager. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -124 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -124 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
Michigan @ Wisconsin 12:00 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Wisconsin -124 (Money Line) (10*) So let me get this straight, we have the #14 ranked team (Michigan) with a perfect 4-0 record as an underdog versus an unranked 1-2 opponent (Wisconsin). This game has trap and sucker play written all over it. This is a prime example of why thinking like a bookmaker is advantageous. Since the start of the 2013 season, Wisconsin has enjoyed on of the best home field advantages in college football over that time. During that span of time, Wisconsin has gone 46-8 (85.2%) straight up at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. That superb straight up home record takes on added significance to me since the oddsmakers have deemed this to be an evenly matched contest based on the opening and current point-spread. Keep in mind, Wisconsin is 1-2 but their losses came against #4 Penn State and #9 Notre Dame. Michigan will be in their 1st road game of the season after opening with 4 straight home wins. The Wolverines have been an extremely run heavy team this season with 74.2% of their offense plays from scrimmage being rushing attempts. They certainly have attained a great deal of success with that formula while averaging 291.0 rushing yards per game and an impressive 6.3 yards per attempt. However, they will be facing a Wisconsin defense that’s been dominant against the run so far. The Badgers are holding opponents to a mere 23 rushing yards per game and 1.0 yard per attempt. The Badgers ability to neutralize Michigan’s potent running game will be the key to victory. Bet on Wisconsin for a 10* Top Play wager. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Duke v. North Carolina -19.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Duke @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: North Carolina -19.5 (5*) For starters we have a North Carolina team that’s 2-2 as a 20.0-point favorite over a 3-1 opponent (Duke). That speaks volumes to me and especially so in a huge rivalry game. North Carolina was shocked last week as a 14.5-point road favorite during a 45-22 road loss to Georgia Tech. The last time the Tar Heels were upset was in their season opener at Virginia Tech. They followed that up with 2 home blowout wins over Georgia State 59-0 and Virginia 59-39. In which they combined for 1306 yards of total offense. I look for another huge offensive performance for North Carolina on Saturday against a Duke defense that allowed 33 points and 507 yards to an immensely weak Kansas team. Duke enters this game on a 3-game win streak after being upset in their season opener at Charlotte. Nonetheless, those wins came over the likes of North Carolina A&T, Northwestern, and Kansas. Northwestern and Kansas are a combined 0-5 versus FBS opponents this season, and North Carolina A&T (1-2) who plays at the FCS level. Not exactly the who’s who of college football. Bet North Carolina minus the points. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Texas v. TCU +4.5 | 32-27 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
Texas @ TCU 12:00 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: TCU +4.5 (5*) I put this one in the line doesn’t make sense category. When that occurs my mind automatically shifts to a contrarian mindset and a bookmaker’s mentality. We have a Texas team that’s 3-1 and their only loss came at #8 Arkansas. The Longhorns were dominant in each of the last 2 weeks with wins over Texas Tech 70-35 and 58-0 versus Rice. Conversely TCU is coming off an upset loss to SMU in a game they were a 9.0-point home favorite. The week before that the Horned Frogs barely escaped with a 2-point win over California while failing to cover as a 12.0-point home favorite. Furthermore, Texas will be playing with revenge stemming from losses to TCU in each of the past 2 season. The sports books just aren’t that generous. Any conference home team (TCU) with a winning record, and they’re facing an opponent (Texas) with a win percentage of .600 to .800 who coming off a conference win by 10 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 59-16 (78.7%) straight up since 2018. This college football straight up betting algorithm supports the underdog in this matchup and makes this wagering angle far more significant. Bet on TCU plus the points. |
|||||||
10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3.5 | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Maryland 8:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Maryland +3.5 (5*) So let me get this right, we have the #5 ranked team (Iowa) in the country as just a 3.5-point favorite over an unranked opponent. Which means if the game was being played in Iowa City the #5 Hawkeyes would be only be about a 9.5-point favorite. I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers compared to the pollsters. Based on that previous statement, the sportsbooks are begging you to take the highly ranked team as a short favorite over their unheralded opponent. By the way, despite being unranked, Maryland is 4-0 and averaging more than 500 yards of total offense per game. The Terrapins will be facing a tough task against an Iowa defense which is allowing only 11.0 points and 271.5 yards per game. However, the Iowa offense leaves much to be desired while averaging a mere 293.0 yards per game. Bet Maryland plus the points. |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals UNDER 46 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Under 46.0 (5*) Jacksonville has averaged only 17.0 points scored and 315.0 yards gained during their 0-3 start. The Jaguars have turned the ball over an alarmingly high 9 times in those 3 contests. The Jaguars rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled thus far while completing just 54.2% of his passes and throwing 7 interceptions. Lawrence will be facing a Cincinnati defense that’s been stout in their last 2 contests while allowing 15.0 points and 274.0 yards per game. During those last 2 contests, the Bengals offense hasn’t exactly lit it up while averaging 20.5 points scored and 274.0 yards gamed per game. The Bengals are coming off last Sunday’s surprising 24-10 win at Pittsburgh which improved their season record to 2-1. Any NFL team (Bengals) playing after Game 3 of their season with a total of 47.0 or less that’s coming off a division away win, and they have a winning record, versus an opponent (Jaguars) with a losing record, resulted in those games going 20-0 under the total since 2015. Bet this game to go under the total. |
|||||||
09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Cowboys 8:15 PM ET Game# 497-498 Play On: Eagles +3.5 (5*) The Eagles are 1-1 but have looked better than I anticipated. They’ve exhibited a perfect balanced offensive attack that has averaged exactly 30 runs and 30 passes per contest while amassing 383.0 yards per game while doing so. There’s no denying when Dak Prescott is healthy the Dallas becomes an offensive juggernaut in most instances. However, they will be facing an Eagles defense that through 2 games is only allowing 11.0 points and 283.0 yards per contest. Similar to recent seasons, the Dallas defense continues to be their enigma as they surrendered over 400 yards during each of their first 2 games of the season. Dallas will finally play their home opener after beginning the season with a pair of road games. The Cowboys lost at Tampa Bay 31-29, and then they bounced back last week with a 20-17 win over the Chargers. Conversely, Philadelphia is coming off a 17-11 home loss to San Francisco which evened their record at 1-1. Since 206, NFL home favorites of 3.5 to 6.5 that’s playing in Game 2 through 6, and their last 2 contests were decided by 3 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Eagles) coming off a SU loss by 2 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 0-7 SU&ATS. The home favorites were outscored in those 7 losses by an average of 6.0 points per game. Bet the Eagles plus the points. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | 30-28 | Loss | -111 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
Packers @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET Game# 495-496 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (5*) I am sure the Packers will be a public play since they were able to view them walloping Detroit 35-17 on the Monday night televised game. However, we must keep in mind, that’s a pitiful Detroit team which has allowed an average of 38 points per game thus far. With that said, despite the Packers putting up 35 points last week they only were able to amass 323 yards of total offense. We mustn’t forget, this is also a Packers team that lost their season opener 38-3 to New Orleans and only was able to muster 322 yards of total offense. San Francisco is coming of road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia in their first 2 games. The 49ers will also be out to revenge a 34-17 home loss to Green Bay last season in a game they entered ravaged by injuries. I look for the 49ers be mentally and physically sharp in their home opener against what I deem to be an overrated team. Bet the 49ers minus the points. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
Seattle @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET Game# 493-494 Play On: Minnesota +2.0 (5*) Talk about a tough luck team, Minnesota has opened the season with a pair of road losses that came by a combined 4 points. Even worse the fact they lost both games via opponent’s winning field goals in the last play of each of those contests. Now they’ll be facing a Seattle team that blew a 14-point 2nd half lead in their home opener last week in a 33-30 loss to Tennessee. Okay so here’s the caveat if you were contemplating Seattle. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in Minnesota in 2014, the Vikings have gone 27-9 (.750) straight up in their last 36 non-division home games and that includes 26-11 (70.3%) ATS. Furthermore, under Zimmer, Minnesota has gone 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS following 2 straight losses when facing a non-division opponent and their previous contest was versus a non-division opponent. Bet Minnesota plus the small number. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Dolphins +4.0 (10*) Derek Carr is off to an extremely hot start to the season. Nevertheless, he’ll be facing what is arguable the best cornerback tandem in the NFL which is Miami’s Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. The Raiders are off to a 2-0 start. You may be surprised to know, this is a franchise that’s won 2 straight just 20 times since 2004, and they went a terrible 6-14 SU and 5-15 ATS in their following game. After winning their first 2 games as an underdog versus Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Raiders assume the role of a chalk for a first time this season. Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, the Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a loss. Miami is coming last Sunday’s embarrassing 35-0 home loss to Buffalo. However, it must be noted that since 2001, away teams with a point-spread of +4.5 to -4.5 who are coming off a home shutout loss have gone 8-0 ATS. Additionally, since the start of last season, Miami is 6-3 SU on the road and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 6.0 or less. As a matter of fact, 1 of those wins came last season at Las Vegas 26-25 as 2.5-point underdog. Yes the Dolphins will be without Tua at quarterback, but at this stage of his young career there’s not a huge drop off going to veteran Jacoby Brissett who has starting experience with both Indianapolis and New England. Bet on the Dolphins plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Saints +3 v. Patriots | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
Saints @ Patriots 1:00 ET Game# 477-478 Play On: New Orleans +3.0 (5*) The Patriots are coming off a 25-6 road win over an atrocious Jets team. They were beneficiaries of 4 interceptions thrown by rookie quarterback Zack Wilson which came on his first 10 attempts of the day. The New Orleans defense has been great against the run thus far while allowing only 66 rushing yards per contest and a mere 2.6 yards per attempt. The Patriots rookie quarterback Matt Jones is going to have to make some big plays in the passing game because the New Orleans defense is likely to stymie any attempt at running the ball effectively on a consistent basis. I love our chances if that scenario plays out like I believe it will. New Orleans is coming off an embarrassing 26-7 loss at Carolina last week. However, that was a very unsettling situation for the Saints who were without 8 assistant coaches due to COVID protocols. I look for them to resemble the team we saw in their opening week 38-3 thrashing of the Green Bay Packers. Besides, it’s never a bad idea to bet on the New Orleans Saints following a loss since Sean Payton became their head coach. Since 2008, and all with their current head coach, New Orleans is 47-25 SU&ATS (65.2%) following a loss. Furthermore, if those contests were played before Game 11 of the season, and the Saints allowed 25 points or more in those previous losses, they improved to 15-2 ATS (88.2%) and 13-4 during that identical timeframe. Bet the Saints plus the small number. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Colorado v. Arizona State -14 | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Arizona State 10:30 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Arizona State -14.0 (5*) #19 Arizona is coming off a 27-17 upset loss at #15 BYU (3-0). So, the Sun Devils figure to be in a sour mood against a Colorado team which has looked inept offensively to start the season. The Buffaloes are 1-2 with their only win coming versus Northern Colorado. In their only 2 games against FBS opponents they lost 10-7 to Texas A&M and 30-0 at home versus Minnesota. Additionally, they only had 260 yards of total offense versus Texas A&M and an abysmal 63 yards against Minnesota. By the way, through their first 3 games, the Sun Devils defense is allowing just 17.0 points and 246.7 yards per game. The Sun Devils offense has topped the 400 yards of total offense barrier in all 3 games. Bet on Arizona State minus the points for a 5* wager. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -17 | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Oklahoma 7:30 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Oklahoma -17.0 (5*) Since the start of last season, West Virginia has gone a perfect 7-0 at home and that includes last week’s win over then #15 Virginia Tech. However, during that identical time span, they went 0-5 on the road and that includes a season opening 30-24 loss at Maryland. The critics have been harsh on #4 Oklahoma despite their 3-0 record. The basis behind those negative remarks revolves around the Sooners only 2 games played against FBS opponents. They narrowly escaped in their season opener at home with 40-35 win over Tulane in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Then last week they entertained Nebraska (1-2) and barely got by with a 23-16 win as a 22.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, since 2014, Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS versus West Virginia with an average victory margin of 21.5 points per game. Oklahoma is also +2 in the turnover department while West Virginia is a dismal -6 throughout their first 2 games. Bet on Oklahoma minus the points. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | UCLA v. Stanford +4.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
UCLA @ Stanford 6:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Stanford +4.5 (10*) After earning a huge victory over LSY 2 weeks ago, UCLA followed that up with a 40-37 loss to Fresno State as a 10.5-point home favorite. Fresno State exposed the UCLA defense last week by racking up 569 yards of total offense. The UCLA defense has been particularly vulnerable in their last 2 games with Fresno State and LSU amassing a combined 785 yards passing against them. After losing their season opener 24-7 versus Kansas State, Stanford has won their last 2 over USC and Vanderbilt on the road. On the last Saturday in September, Stanford finally will play its home opener. They will be ready. Bet on Stanford plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Louisville v. Florida State +2 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Florida State 3:30 Game# 267-268 Play On: Florida State +2.0 (5*) Florida State is 0-3 for the first time since 1976, and that includes a home loss 2 weeks ago to Jacksonville State who plays at the FCS level. The Seminoles were plagued by an alarmingly high 10 turnovers during those 3 defeats and 6 of those came in last week’s 35-14 loss at Wake Forest. Yet, they find themselves as just a 2.0-point underdog versus a Louisville team that just upset Central Florida in a nationally televised home game. After losing both home games to start the season and each by a narrow 3-point margin, I look for Florida State to roar back with a vengeance against a Louisville team that may potentially be overconfident and not mentally sharp. Bet on Florida State plus the small number. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Iowa State -7 v. Baylor | 29-31 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Baylor 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) Baylor is off to a fast 3-0 start but finds itself a touchdown home underdog against 2-1 Iowa State. We must keep in mind Iowa State’s lone defeat came against #6 Iowa in a game they beat themselves. The Cyclones outgained Iowa in that contest 339-173 but turned the ball over 4 times while not forcing any giveaways. Iowa State rebounded during last week’s 48-3 road win at UNLV. Through its first 3 contests, the Iowa State defense is allowing 13.3 points and 192.7 yards per game, and all those outings went under the total. Baylor’s 3 wins have come against Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Not exactly a killer schedule. Any college football road favorite of 3.5-10.0 that is coming off 3 consecutive games going under the total, and they’re allowing 14.0 points or fewer per game, resulted in those favorites going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 1992. The average line in those 39 contests was 6.2 and the average victory margin was 16.6 points per game. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | 37-17 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ Virginia 9:36 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Virginia -4.0 (5*) Wake Forest has started 3-0 but their wins have come over Norfolk State (FCS team), Florida State (0-3), and Old Dominion (1-2). Additionally, all 3 of those wins occurred at home. So, they haven’t exactly played a killer schedule thus far, and Virginia will unequivocally be their toughest test to this point. The Demon Deacons have also been beneficiaries of a +5 turnover differential thus far. Virginia is coming off a 59-39 loss at North Carolina. The Virginia defense was embarrassed in that contest while allowing North Carolina to rack up 699 yards of total offense. Wake Forest has neither the dynamic passing game that North Carolina possesses, nor do they have a quarterback the caliber of Sam Howell. I also look for Virginia’s defense to bounce back with a more determined effort on Friday. On a positive note, the Virginia passing game has been terrific through their first 3 games while averaging a robust 438 yards per contest. The Cavaliers are also averaging 41.3 points scored per game. Since the start of the 2018 season, Virginia has gone 20-2 straight up at home, and that includes a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.5 points per game. Bet on Virginia minus the points. |
|||||||
09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 48.5 | 17-35 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Lions @ Packers 8:15 PM ET Game# 297-298 Play On: Under 48.5 (5*) The Packers are coming off a miserable performance in their season opener after being walloped 38-3 by New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite. The game was played in Jacksonville because of damages inflicted by Hurricane Ida to the Saints home stadium. There was unequivocally more Packers fans at that contest than that of New Orleans. So, they can’t use playing on their road as an excuse. The Packers were brutal offensively as they were only able to amass a mere 229 yards of total offense and turned the ball over 3 times. On a positive note, it was a deceiving 38 points allowed by Green Bay considering they only surrendered 322 yards on defense and were victimized by its own offense giveaways. Aaron Rogers showed the rust from not playing in the preseason and being absent from offseason team activities going just 15-28 for 133 yards passing in addition to being intercepted twice. Green Bay has been in the role of a double-digit favorite several times in recent seasons. Specifically speaking, the Packers have played 9-0 to the under during its last 9 as a favorite of 10.0 or greater. Those 9 contests had an average total of 47.1 and there was a combined total of only 38.4 points scored per game. Detroit was able to accumulate 430 yards of offense in their season opening 41-33 home loss to San Francisco. However, a big chunk of those yards came on its final 2 drives when they were down 41-17 and the 49ers were in soft pass coverage. The Lions have seen just 1 of their last 5 games against Green Bay go over the total. |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET Game# 295-296 Play On: Ravens +4.0 (5*) Since John Harbaugh has taken over as head coach in Baltimore, the Ravens have gone 77-27 (.740) in regular season home games. Regardless of their numerous injury losses they’ve endured thus far, that strong home field advantage must be considered, and especially so as more than a field goal underdog. Furthermore, the Ravens are 50-14 (.781) in their last 64 regular season home games when facing a non-division opponent. Baltimore is also 5-0 in their last 5 home openers and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.4 points per game. One more item of note, under Harbaugh Baltimore is 12-1 straight up and 11-2 ATS in home games during the season’s first 2 weeks. I know it’s a tough ask to bet against the Chiefs in any situation, but I’m supremely confident this is a optimum betting situation to do so.  The Chiefs are only 3-3 straight up and 0-3-3 ATS in their last 6 as an away favorite of 4.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a loss. Kansas City was extremely fortunate to beat Cleveland 33-29 in their home opener last Sunday in a game they failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. Since 2009, any non-division home underdog of 4.5 or less (Ravens) that’s coming off an away favorite straight up loss in which it allowed 14 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 22-6 ATS (78.6%) and they won 21 of those 28 contests straight up. Bet on the Ravens plus the points. |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 293-294 Play On: Chargers -3.0 (5*) In what should be an entertaining game to watch, it will come down to which defense can get the most stops at crucial moments of the contest. With that being said, I have way more confidence in the Chargers ability to do so as opposed to Dallas’ stop unit. The Cowboys did give defending world champion Tampa Bay all they can handle in their season opening 31-29 road loss while easily covering as an 8.0-point underdog. With Dak Prescott back at quarterback and his dynamic trio of wide receivers, the Cowboys potent offense racked up 391 yards through the air. However, they also allowed Tampa Bay to amass 431 yards of total offense and that includes 379 coming via their passing game. Somehow the Cowboys managed to lose this game despite having 451 yards of total offense and being a +3 in the turnover department.  A poor defense this season will once again plague the Cowboys ability to win on a consistent basis. The Chargers are coming off an impressive 26-16 road win at Washington last Sunday. They held Washington to a mere 259 yards while also accumulating a time of possession edge of 36:03 to 23:57. Justin Herbert showed no signs of a sophomore jinx as he was 31-47 for 334 yards and averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per passing attempt against a formidable Washington defense. Dating back to last season, the Chargers have won 5 straight games. Bet on the Chargers minus the points. |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Cardinals 4:05 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Vikings +3.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off a surprising 27-24 overtime loss at Cincinnati last Sunday. However, they have responded well in a small sample size of betting situations exactly like this one under head coach Mike Zimmer. Since Zimmer has been their head coach, the Vikings are 4-0 SU&ATS as a non-division road underdog of 6.0 or less when coming off a non-division loss by 13 points or fewer. Conversely, since 2018, Arizona is 0-4 SU&ATS as a home favorite when facing an opponent coming off a loss and they were outscored by an average of 7.7 points per game. Furthermore, public betting will certainly side with the Cardinals in this one following their 38-13 road win as a 3.0-point underdog at Tennessee last week. It’s rarely that easy and this will be a prime example of such. Any NFL home favorite of 5.0 or less (Cardinals) playing in Game 2 or 3 of their season, and they’re coming off an away win by 25 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 0-10 ATS since 1988. The away underdogs also won 7 of those 10 contests straight up. This clearly indicates to me that you shouldn’t overreact to a reasonably sized home favorite coming off a convincing road win in early season action. Bet on the Vikings plus the points. |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Broncos v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
Broncos @ Jacksonville 1:00 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Over 45.0 (10*) I thought prized rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence acquitted himself very well in his NFL debut last week despite the Jaguars 37-21 loss at Houston. Granted he did throw 3 interceptions. Nonetheless, he also threw 332 yards and 3 touchdowns as well. Conversely, the Jacksonville defense was terrible. They allowed Houston to accumulate 449 yards of total offense and made vagabond quarterback Tyrod Taylor resemble a future Hall of Fame inductee. Houston was also 12-21 (57.1%) on 3rd down conversions. The Jags also allowed the Texans to average a massive 8.8 yards per passing attempt which is brutal by NFL standards. Teddy Bridgewater was solid in his Denver debut going 28-36 passing for 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. The Broncos also ran the ball extremely well while accounting for 165 yards and averaged a terrific 5.9 yards per rushing attempts. Bet on this game to over the total for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Fresno State +11 v. UCLA | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ UCLA 10:45 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Fresno State +11.5 (10*) UCLA is coming off a huge 38-27 upset win at home over LSU which has catapulted them to a #13 national ranking. Following Saturday’s non-conference game versus Fresno, the Bruins have their PAC-12 opener versus Stanford up next. This has the earmarks of a flat spot for a UCLA program doesn’t possess much if any experience of handling success under current head coach Chip Kelly. If you think Fresno State is going to be intimidated on the road against #13 UCLA, then think again. The Bulldogs already traveled to #4 Oregon 2 weeks ago and that contest was tied 21-21 into the 4th quarter before they fell short in a 31-24. Nonetheless, they easily covered that game as an 18.0-point underdog. That’s the same Oregon team that went to then #2 Ohio State last week and knocked them off which ended the Buckeyes 22-game home winning streak. Throughout their first 3 game, the Fresno State defense is allowing a mere 3.6 yards per play. Conversely, their offense has been efficient led by unheralded quarterback Jake Haener who has completed 73.6% of his passes while throwing for 1009 yards and 8 touchdowns against 0 interceptions through their first 3 contests. Bet on Fresno State plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Virginia v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 39-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
Virginia @ North Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: North Carolina -7.5 (5*) Virginia has got off to a 2-0 start with blowout home wins over William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14. However, the competition is about to get substantially tougher in their ACC opener on Saturday at #24 North Carolina. The Tar Heels know if they hope to contend for an ACC title like many expected, they can ill afford to lose this contest after being upset at Virginia Tech in their season opener. North Carolina will also be playing with big time revenge after losing their last 4 against Virginia. On a positive note, the Tar Heels defense which has been their enigma in recent seasons allowed just 296 and 271 yards in their first 2 games. I look for an inspired effort and convincing win from North Carolina on Saturday. Bet on North Carolina minus the points. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Charlotte +5 v. Georgia State | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Georgia State 7:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Charlotte +5.0 (5*) Georgia State has started the season with blowout losses to Army 43-10 and North Carolina 59-17. The failed to cover on each occasion and by a combined 52.0 points. They were also outgained in total yards those 2 contests by a combined 963-448. Charlotte opened the season with an upset win over Duke 31-28. They followed that up with an easy 38-14 win over Gardner Webb and covered as a 23.5-point favorite. They averaged 477.0 yards of total offense in those victories. Charlotte will have success running the ball against Georgia State and that will be the key to us covering. Bet on Charlotte plus the points. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Utah v. San Diego State +8.5 | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Utah @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: San Diego State +8.5 (5*) San Diego State is coming off a 38-14 blowout win at Arizona in a game they closed as a 1.5-point underdog. That’s the same Arizona team that lost by 5 of BYU in their season opener. Lastly, BYU defeated Utah 26-17 last Saturday as a 7.0-point home underdog in a bitter in state rivalry game. This also presents a rare opportunity for San Diego State (2-0) to defeat PAC-12 teams in consecutive weeks. Any college football home team (San Diego State) that’s coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Utah) coming off a road SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 25.0 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 36-3 (92.3%) straight up since 2017. That straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it back the better than 1 touchdown home underdog in this matchup. By the way, those home teams were also 31-6-2 ATS in those games as well. Bet on San Diego State plus the points. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana +4 | 38-24 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Indiana 12:00 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Indiana +4.0 (5*) This opening line was extremely fishing with #8 Cincinnati being installed as just a 3-point favorite at Indiana. Just as I expected, public bettors were lured in by the sportsbooks bait and jumped all over the nationally ranked Bobcats. Thus, the number at the time of this writing was either 3.5 or 4.0 depending on where you look. Taking the road favorite in this spot has sucker play written all over it. Cincinnati sleepwalked through the 1st half of their home game last week against an FCS team Murray State, and it resulted in a 7-7 tie at intermission. Ultimately Cincinnati pulled away in the 2nd half to prevail 42-7 while failing to cover as a 36.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, it was a less than inspiring performance and they were greatly benefitted by 4 Murray State turnovers. Now they’ll face an Indiana team that was blown out 34-6 in their season opener at #5 Iowa. So why shouldn’t we expect a similar result versus the 8th ranked Bobcats? Because it’s never that easy my friends. Furthermore, Cincinnati could be caught looking past Saturday to next week’s trip to South Bend where they’ll take on #10 Notre Dame. It’s worth noting that Indiana began the season ranked #16 and with high hopes of being a Big 10 sleeper. An upset of Cincinnati would surely get them back into the Top 25, not to mention being a major confidence booster. Additionally, the 34-6 final score at Iowa was a bit askew since the Hawkeyes returned 2 interceptions for touchdowns, and they held the Hawkeyes to just 233 yards of total offense. That was the same Iowa team that won at #9 Iowa State last week as a 4.0-point underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points. By the way, Indiana bounced back with a 56-14 blowout win over Idaho. Any non-conference college football home team (Indiana) that coming off a win by 35 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Cincinnati) who allowed 14 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 51-11 (82.2%) straight up since 2012. This straight up betting angle takes on added value because it supports the home underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points. |
|||||||
09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Baltimore @ Las Vegas 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Las Vegas +4.0 (5*) The Raiders are 15-17 during the past 2 seasons. However, despite that mediocrity NFL betting history has shown home underdogs in their season openers on Monday night have been extremely profitable. Any Monday night home underdog of 5.5 or less that’s playing in their season opener, and they won 10 or more of its last 32 games, resulted in those home dogs going 15-1 (93.7%) ATS since 1983. Those home dogs also won 11 of those 16 games straight up. Bet on Las Vegas plus the points |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Packers v. Saints OVER 49 | 3-38 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
Green Bay vs. New Orleans 4:25 PM ET Game# 483-484 Play On: Over 49.0 (5*) This game was originally scheduled to be played in New Orleans but had to be moved to Jacksonville due to weather damage and dangerous conditions. Nonetheless, New Orleans has played 7-0 to the over in their last 7 season openers with a combined average of 63.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, since 2011, the Saints have played 8-0 to the over in season openers when there was a total of 53.0 or less, and there was a combined average of 64.3 points scored per game. Since head coach Sean Payton began his tenure in New Orleans, he’s gone up against Green Bay 6 times, and 5 of those contests went over the total. Digging deeper into those head-to-head matchups showed me that if there was a number of 46.0 or greater, then those games played 5-0 to the over with a combined average of 68.8 points scored per game. With star quarterback Aaron Rodgers under center the Packers have played 8-2 to the over in their previous 10 season openers. Green Bay has also played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 season openers not played at Lambeau Field and when there was a total of 47.0 or greater. Lastly, Green Bay has scored 31 points or more in 7 of their last 10 as a favorite in games not played at home. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Vikings v. Bengals OVER 47 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game#467-468 Play On: Over 47.0 (5*) Since 2019, Cincinnati has played 5-0 to the over at home whenever there was a total of 45.5 or greater. Those 5 contests averaged a combined 57.4 points scored per game. Joe Burrow is coming off an impressive rookie season despite it being cut in half due to injury. Burrow has a talented trio of receivers at his disposal that can stretch the field. Conversely, this is a Bengals defense that allowed 26.5 points and 389.4 yards per game a season ago. Nothing they did in the offseason suggests that there will be vast improvement defensively. The Vikings offense should be able to put on a sizable number of points against a porous Cincinnati defense. I especially look for running back Dalvin Cook to have a monster day against a defense that allowed 148 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per rushing attempt last season. That will in turn make for some some advantageous play action passing opportunities for the tremendous wide receiving tandem of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Those 2 combined for 162 catches, 2325 yards, and 21 touchdowns last season. On a negative note, the Vikings defense was terrible a season ago while allowing 29.7 points and 393.3 yards per game. Like the Bengals stop unit, I see no reason to believe Minnesota will be markedly improved on defense. Since 2019, Minnesota has played 11 road games in which there was a total of 45.5 or greater and there was a combined average of 55.2 points scored per contest. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
Cardinals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Cardinals +3.0 (10*) I have been eyeing this game down for a few weeks now. Arizona has not reached the postseason since the 2015-2016 campaign. Conversely, Tennessee has been a playoff participant in 3 of the last 4 years. As a matter of fact, the one time they failed to qualify during that span, they still went 9-7. Yet, Tennessee is just a 3.0 points home favorite in their season opener versus an Arizona team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015-2016 season NFL campaign. Moreover, if this game were being played in Arizona, the Cardinals would be the 3.0-point favorite. The last I checked, the sportsbooks and odds-makers aren’t that nice, nor will they ever be lauded for their generosity. If it smells like a rat, and looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Additionally, this is a Tennessee team that allowed 27 points and 398 yards per game a season ago despite being a playoff team. On the other hand, Arizona averaged a more than respectable 25.6 points scored per game last year. Since 2019, the Cardinals are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a non-division away underdog and won 3 of those contests straight up. Bet on the Cardinals plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
Washington @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Washington +7.0 (5*) Michigan figures to be a heavily bet side in this matchup because bettors tend to remember what happened the week before, and seldom look at any other factor. Washington was shocked last week in a 13-7 loss to Montana in a game they were a 22.0-point home favorite. If there’s such a thing of a team looking past their season and home opener, then Washington was a text back example of such. Conversely, Michigan is coming off an impressive 47-14 blowout win over Western Michigan, and easily covered as a 16.0-point home favorite. Wolverine fans were ecstatic with the performance of their offense that racked up 551 total yards. However, that was against a team that plays in a conference (MAC) where defense has historically been an afterthought, and high scoring games occur in regularity. Washington’s defense will keep them in the game, and their offense will do enough to stay within the number, and possibly even pull off an outright upset. Nonetheless, I won’t get greedy and take the points afforded to me. Bet on Washington plus the points. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 56 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
Missouri @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Over 56.0 (5*) Both teams showed some offensive explosiveness in their season openers. Kentucky produced 554 yards of total offense in their 45-10 win over UL-Monroe. The Wildcats won by that lopsided margin despite being a -3 in the turnover department. They won’t have the luxury of playing against an inept offense like UL-Monroe that was only able to register 87 total yards for the entire game. The Missouri offense will be an exponentially tougher challenge for Kentucky’s defense. The Tigers recorded 468 yards of offense in last week’s 34-24 win over Central Michigan. The Tigers were well balanced offensive in gaining 211 yards on the ground and 257 through the air. However, on a negative note, Missouri’s defense allowed Central Michigan to rack up 474 yards of total offense including 301 via their passing game. That’s a concern against a Kentucky team that passed for 419 yards last week. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | North Texas v. SMU OVER 73 | 12-35 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
North Texas @ SMU 7:00 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Over 73.0 (5*) This is a high number for a reason and that’s not going to deter me in any way, shape, or form from placing my wager. Both teams are coming off season opening wins over FCS opponents in which they combined to score 100 points and amass 1017 yards of total offense. Additionally, North Texas allowed their opponent Northwestern State to rack up 418 yards of total offense. Both teams playing at warp speed on offense evidenced by North Texas running 76 plays and SMU 73 in their season openers. These teams have met in each of the previous 4 seasons with final scores of 65-35, 49-27, 46-23, and 54-32. If you’re keeping score at home, that calculates to a combined 82.3 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Appalachian State +9 v. Miami-FL | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
Appalachian State @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 357-358 Play On: Appalachian State +9.0 (10*) It’s no shame to lose to Alabama like Miami did last week. However, it’s the manner the then #14 ranked Hurricanes were defeated makes them mentally fragile heading into this contest. Miami lost that contest 44-13 and were outgained in total yards by a decisive 501-264 margin. Quite frankly, Nick Saban called of the dogs or this result could’ve been much uglier for Miami. Now they’ll face a Sun Belt Conference Game team and knowing that Michigan State is up next at home. This doesn’t set up to be an advantageous spot for the better than 1 touchdown favorite to cover. Additionally, Miami is just a middle of the road 13-9 in their last 22 games. Appalachian State is coming off last week’s season opening 33-19 home win over East Carolina in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. The Mountaineers exhibited an impressively balanced offense attach while amassing 226 rushing yards and 259 through the air. This is an Appalachian State football program that’s gone 52-11 (.825) straight up during its previous 63 games played. Furthermore, throughout that successful stretch they were only an underdog 9 times and covered on 6 of those occasions. Any college football non-conference underdog of 4.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a non-conference win in which they allowed 19 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Miami) who has won 19 or fewer of their previous 22 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 2017. |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -7.5 | 29-31 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 1 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Tampa Bay 8:20 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Tampa Bay -7.5 (5*) Dallas allowed 33 points or more in 8 of their 16 games last season. I am not seeing any evidence on paper at least that the Cowboys defense will be vastly improved heading into this season. Surely not enough to predict they will slow down an explosive offense like Tampa Bay and especially so on the road. Â Additionally, the Tampa Bay defensive front figures to give an average at best Dallas offensive line fits, and especially without their outstanding guard Zack Martin being sidelined after testing positive for COVID. The defending Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a season in which they went 15-5 which includes the playoffs and Super Bowl. They will be facing a Dallas team that went a disappointing 6-10 year. Since 2006, NFL home pick/favorites playing their season opener on a Thursday night that won between 13 and 16 games the year before have gone 10- straight up and 7-1-2 ATS. The average margin of victory in those 10 contests was 13.0 points per game. Additionally, if those home teams were facing an opponent that won 10 or fewer regular season games the season before, the betting angle improves to 6-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 17.8 points per contest. If your line is indeed 7.5, I would suggest paying the extra juice and buying it down to the key number of 7.0. Bet on Tampa Bay minus the points. |
|||||||
09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Notre Dame @ Florida State 7:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: Florida State +7.0 (5*) It will being an emotional night in Tallahassee. Not only will it be the Seminoles home opener, but they’ll be honoring the late great Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden who recently passed away. Additionally, it will mark the return of former Central Florida quarterback Mackenzie Milton who’s now a Florida State Seminole. Milton hasn’t played since sustaining a gruesome injury 3 years ago but will be under center tonight. If Milton can stay healthy and is anywhere near as good as he was as in his freshmen year at Central Florida, the Seminoles experienced offense will take a huge step forward and starting with tonight. I think Notre Dame will be very good once again this season. However, their current #9 national ranking is more about brand name and last year’s run to the College Football Playoffs. The Fighting Irish have to replace 13 starters from last year’s senior laden team and will go through some early growing pains. I am not sold on Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan who was named the starter. Coan doesn’t have the mobility nor is as good a passer as recently departed 3-year starter Ian Book. Bet on Florida State plus the points. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.