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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-23 | Kentucky v. South Carolina -125 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ South Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 335-336 Play On: South Carolina -125 South Carolina (4-6) needs a win to keep their postseason bowl hopes alive. The Gamecocks are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Florida 41-39. During those 5 home contests they’ve average 41.6 point scored and 491.6 yards gained per game. Kentucky started the season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 25. However, they’re 1-4 since that time and in those 4 losses allowed 33 points or more on each occasion. Additionally, Kentucky is already bowl eligible along with finishing the regular season next week with a showdown against bitter rival Louisville (9-1) who’s currently ranked #9 in the country. Give me South Carolina on the money line. |
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11-18-23 | Kansas State -9.5 v. Kansas | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Kansas State -9.5 So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma State -6 v. Houston | 43-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Houston 4:00 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Oklahoma State -6.0 Oklahoma State is coming off an embarrassing 45-3 loss at Central Florida as a 2.5-point favorite last week. That halted a Cowboys red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS winning run. The oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result when considering they made them a touchdown road favorite this week. The Cowboy’s enigma has been their defense. However, they’ll be matchup against a Houston offense that’s averaged a mere 13.0 points scored and 238.3 yards gained per game over their previous 3 contests. Despite last week’s poor offensive showing at Central Florida, Oklahoma State had averaged 36.0 points scored and 497.0 yards gained per contest during their previously mentioned 5-game win streak. Look for that offensive firepower to return on Saturday against a 4-6 Houston team. Furthermore, Houston is at a -6 turnover margin throughout their previous 3 games and Oklahoma State is +6 over the previous 6 contests. Give me Oklahoma State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Georgia v. Tennessee +9.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
Georgia @ Tennessee 3:30 PM ET Game# 329-330 Play On: Tennessee +9.5 If it’s possible to say that a 10-0 team like Georgia has shown steady improvement every week then that’s certainly true in this instance. Tennessee is coming off a 36-7 shellacking at #11 Missouri last Saturday in a game they closed as a 2.0-point favorite. Despite that defeat, Tennessee is still a very good 7-3 this season with their other losses coming at #6 Alabama 34-20 and were upset at Florida. Otherwise, the Volunteers are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home when facing FBS opponents with an average victory margin of 28.8 points per game. Granted those 4 wins and covers didn’t come against any team currently ranked the Top 25, but it does speak to confidence playing at home and even more of a psychological boost when facing the 2-time defending national champion. The fact of the matter is that even if Georgia happens to lose this game, if they defeat Georgia Tech next week and Alabama in the SEC Championship game, they’ll in all probability be part of the 4-team College Football Playoffs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset here, but I won’t be foolishly greedy and gladly take the points being afforded to me. Give me Tennessee plus points. |
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11-18-23 | Louisville v. Miami-FL +1 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Miami Fla. 12:00 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Miami +1.0 This line makes no sense to me and when that occurs more times than not, I go against what seems to be the obvious choice. We have the #9 team in the country in Louisville at 9-1 as a pick versus an unranked Miami team that’s 6-4 that’s lost the last 2 and 4 of their previous 6 games. Additionally, Louisville game after Miami comes against in state bitter rival Kentucky. If it looks too good to be true pertaining to sports betting it usually is. This is a prime example of such. Give me Miami Fla. on the money line. |
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11-18-23 | SMU v. Memphis +9.5 | 38-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET Game# 397-398 Play On: Memphis +9.5 Memphis enters this American Athletic Conference matchup on a 4-game win streak, and it’s improved their season record to 8-2. Conversely, SMU is coming off a SU&ATS 45-21 win over North Texas. SMU is also 8-2 but all 7 of their wins over FBS opponents this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record and have a combined record of 21-50 (.296). College Football home underdogs of between 2.5 to 14.0 Like Memphis that are coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like SMU who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 2018. The home underdogs also went 14-2 SU in those games. Give me Memphis plus points. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Ravens 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Ravens -3.5 The Ravens are coming off a home favorite 33-31 SU loss to Cleveland last Sunday. That dropped their season record to a still very good 7-3 (.700). The Ravens will be able to move the ball with a high degree of efficiency against a vulnerable Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati is coming off a 30-27 home upset loss to Houston in a game they allowed the Texans to rack up 544 yards of total offense. That marked the 4th time in 9 games this season that the Bengals defense surrendered 400 yards or more. As a matter of fact, the Bengals defense ranks 30th total yards allowed and also 30th at stopping the run. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing offense while averaging 154.9 yards per game. Conversely, the Baltimore defense is #2 in yards allowed per game and they’re #1 at sacking the quarterback. Any regular season NFL favorite like Baltimore with a win percentage between .600 to .750 that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss, and they’re playing after Game 8, versus an opponent like Cincinnati that’s coming off a loss and has a win percentage of .181 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 2016. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a substantial margin of 21.9 points per game. Give me the Ravens minus points. |
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11-14-23 | Toledo v. Bowling Green +11 | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Bowling Green 7:00 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Bowling Green +11.0 Toledo began their season with a narrow 2-point loss at Illinois, and since then has won 9 straight games. Bowling Green began the season 2-4 and then proceeded to win 4 in a row to get to their current 6-4 record. Additionally, 2 of their 4 losses came on the road against nationally ranked Liberty 34-24 and Michigan 31-6 who as of this writing are a combined 20-0. Any College Football home underdog of 13.0 or less like Bowling Green currently is that’s currently coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like Toledo who’s coming off a conference SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 2018. Those home underdogs were also 14-1 SU in those 15 games. Give me Bowling Green plus points. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Bills 8:15 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Bills -7.0 The Broncos are coming off last week’s 24-9 upset win as a 7.0-point home underdog over Kansas City. That victory improved their season record to 3-5 (.375). Since 2014, Denver is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in Monday night away games. The Broncos are also an abysmal 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 on the road when their point-spread was between -2.0 to +9.5 while losing by an average of 12.0 points per game. Buffalo is coming off a Sunday night 24-18 loss at Cincinnati in a game they also failed to cover as a 1.5-point underdog. Despite the Bills offense falling under heavy criticism, they’re still #7 in total yards, #7 in scoring, and #2 in 3rd down conversion rate. They’ll be facing a Broncos defense that’s dead last in the NFL when it comes to points and yards allowed per game. The Denver stop unit has especially struggled in non-division contests while allowing 36.2 points and 464.6 yards per game. The Bills struggles have come on the road where they’re 1-4. However, Buffalo is 4-0 at home with an average victory margin of 16.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by 79.0 yards per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or greater like Buffalo that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, versus a non-division opponent like Denver with a win percentage of .333 or better who’s coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The average victory margin came by a decisive 19.0 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders +6 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
Commanders @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Commanders +6.0 Seattle was hammered in last week’s 37-3 loss at Baltimore in a game the Ravens held a total yard advantage of 515-151. Since the 2021-2022 season, Seattle is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 7.0. Furthermore, they lost 6 of those 10 games outright. Washington is coming off a confidence building 20-17 win at New England last Sunday in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. The Commanders are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as an away underdog this season and won 3 of those contests SU. Washington’s 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell has been terrific in the last 2 games while going 68-97 (70.1%) passing which accounted for 696 yards. Since 2021-2022, Washington is 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in Games 10 through 13. Give me the Commanders plus the points as my Top Play of the Week. |
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11-12-23 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 38 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
Browns @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 243-244 Play On: Over 38.0 We have the top 2 defenses in the NFL when it comes to total yards allowed. This also features 2 of the top 3 scoring defenses in the league. Thus, the low posted total. It’s a no brainer to take the under, right? That would be an emphatic no. I strongly believe there’s ample betting value in going over the number. Cleveland has gone over the total in all 3 road games this season and with a combined average of 56.3 points scored per contest. Additionally, since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Cleveland has played 5-1 to the over in road games where the number was between 35.5 and 42.0 with a combined 49.2 points scored per contest. The Baltimore offense has been on fire during their previous 3 contests while averaging 35.3 points scored and 428.7 yards gained per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-12-23 | Texans +7 v. Bengals | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Texas @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 245-246 Play On: Texans +7.0 The Bengals are surging while having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. However, this has a good possibility of being a flat spot for them on Sunday. They will be without starting wide receiver Tee Higgins and their #1 pass catcher Jamaar Chase is listed as questionable. Additionally, Cincinnati is coming off a 24-18 home win over Buffalo in front of a national television audience and up next is a showdown with AFC North Division leader this coming Thursday. Sandwiched in between is this low profile game against a 4-4 Houston team. Furthermore, despite their 5-3 record, Cincinnati has been outgained by an average of 71.7 yards per game. Houston’s rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off a massive performance in last Sunday’s 39-37 home win over Tampa Bay. Stroud has thrown 14 touchdown passes this season while being intercepted only once and has averaged 283.8 yards passing yards per game. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
49ers @ Jaguars 1:00 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: 49ers -3.0 Talk about a fishy line. Jacksonville is a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. Conversely, San Francisco is 0-3 SU&ATS during their previous 3. Yet, it’s the 49ers who come up favorite in this spot. They’re pleading with you to take the home underdog here. My answer is thank you for the offer but I’m not taking the bait. Here’s the other thing, although Jacksonville is 6-2, both losses took place at home versus Houston and Kansas City. Their lone home win came over the Colts 37-20 in a game they were outgained in total yards by a wide margin of 354-233. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Saints v. Vikings +3 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
Saints @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 249-250 Play On: Vikings +3.0 After starting the season 0-3, the Vikings have rebounded well and are now 5-4. That includes going 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. Throughout their previous 6 contests, the Minnesota defense has been superb while allowing only 18.0 points and 300.8 yards per game. New Orleans is a respectable 3-2 on the road thus far. However, all 3 of those wins have came over teams that currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. As a matter of fact, this will be their first road game of the season versus a team that currently has a winning record. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Iowa State v. BYU +8 | 45-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ BYU 10:15 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: BYU +8.0 Iowa State had their 3-game win streak halted last Saturday during a 28-21 loss to #17 Kansas. Following this game against 5-4 at BYU they’ll be hosting #7 Texas next. Needless to say this is a potential flat spot for the Cyclones. All 4 losses by BYU have come on the road. The Cougars are a perfect 4-0 at home including conference wins over Cincinnati and Texas Tech. This is good situation and spot to back the home underdog. Give me BYU plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Florida v. LSU -14.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Florida @ LSU 7:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: LSU -14.5 The most alarming statistic for Florida is the fact they’ve allowed 40.3 points and 482.3 yards per game over the last 3 contests. That highly problematic when facing the prospect of facing an explosive LSU offense that’s averaging 54.0 points scored and 566.3 yards gained per game while going 4-0 at home. Florida is a poor 1-3 on the road this year. LSU is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 versus Florida. Give me LSU minus points. |
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11-11-23 | Texas State -125 v. Coastal Carolina | 23-31 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina 3:30 PM ET Game# 153-154 Play On: Texas State -125 Both teams enter this contest with 6-3 records. Here’s the thing, Coastal Carolina has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 while Texas State is just 2-2. Nevertheless, Texas State shows up as a road favorite in this Sun Belt Conference matchup which speaks volumes to me. Texas State is coming off an impressive 45-24 win over a solid Georgia Southern team. Give me Texas State as a money line favorite. |
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11-11-23 | Utah +9 v. Washington | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Utah @ Washington 3:30 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Utah +9.0 Do you want to know why Washington is 9-0 and is on the outside looking in when it comes to the College Football Playoff picture? Well I’m glad you asked. The Huskies last 5 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. The Washington defense has allowed 33 points or greater and 499 yards or more during 3 of their previous 4 games. Conversely Utah is 7-2 with their only losses coming to #6 Oregon and #12 Oregon State. Utah has scored 34 points or great and gained 445 points or more in 3 of their last 4 contests. The Utes productive running game will be highly effective in this game and in turn control time of possession while limiting offensive possessions for thus high scoring Huskies. Give me Utah plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Central Florida +2.5 | Top | 3-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: UCF +2.5 Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is. College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Arizona -10 v. Colorado | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
Arizona @ Colorado 2:00 PM ET Game# 169-170 Play On: Arizona -10.0 After a promising 3-0 start that saw them ranked in the Top 25, Colorado has lost 5 of their last 6 and will be hard pressed to become bowl eligible. During this current 6-game funk, Colorado has allowed 33.9 points and 469.0 yards per contest. They will be play against a surging Arizona team that’s gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 while allowing 13.3 points and 304.0 yards per game. Their last 2 of those wins coming off quality wins over UCLA and Oregon State. These are 2 teams headed on opposite paths. Give me Arizona minus points. |
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11-11-23 | Texas Tech +4 v. Kansas | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On Texas Tech +4.0 Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins versus Oklahoma and at Iowa State. Now they find themselves as just a small home favorite versus a 4-5 Texas Tech team. Additionally, up next for the #17 Jayhawks is #7 Texas. This seems like a fishy line and a potential flat for Kansas. Speaking of Texas Tech, they’re coming off a 35-28 home win over TCU. The Red Raiders are 1-3 SU on the road but have played much better during those contests than that poor record indicates. During those 4 away contests they are a +0.8-point differential and +78.0 yard per game differential. Give me Texas Tech plus the points. |
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11-10-23 | North Texas v. SMU -17 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show | |
North Texas @ SMU 9:00 PM ET Game# 119-120 Play On: SMU -17.0 SMU has gone 4-0 SU&ATS during the previous 4 seasons versus North Texas and won by an average substantial margin of 28.3 points per game. The Mustangs are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 contests with an average victory margin of 39.3 points per outing and outgained those opponents by an enormous 339.4 yards per game. Furthermore, SMU is 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season and won by a massive average margin of 42.7 points per game. SMU will be facing a 3-6 North Texas team which allows an average of 36.7 points and 469.0 yards per game. Any college football home favorite of between 10.0 and 31.5 like SMU with a win percentage of .777 or better, and they’re coming off 3 wins in a row in which they scored 36 points or greater on each occasion, versus an opponent like TCU with a win percentage of .200 or better that’s coming off 2 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2002 and they won by an average of 32.8 points per contest. Give me SMU minus points. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears -3 | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Bears 8:15 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Bears -3.0 The Bears will stick to their offensive strength and that’s running the ball. Although the Bears are a poor 1-3 at home this season, they’ve averaged 157 yards rushing per contest and 4.7 yards per attempt. Conversely, Carolina is 0-4 SU&ATS on the road while losing by an average of 15.8 points per game and they surrendered 149 yards rushing per contest. Give me the Bears minus points. |
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11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +7.5 | 20-10 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Ohio @ Buffalo 7:00 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Buffalo +7.5 Buffalo went an abysmal 0-4 in the non-conference portion of their schedule. However, since conference action began, they are a respectable 3-2 while only allowing 16.8 points and 285.8 yards per game in addition to forcing 13 turnovers. Ohio is 6-3 overall but just 3-2 in MAC action. The Bobcats have lost 2 of their last 3 and failed to cover on each occasion. Give me Buffalo plus points. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3 v. Jets | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Jets 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chargers -3.0 This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me and when that occurs, I predominately go against what appears to be the obvious choice. The Chargers are 3-4 and the Jets 4-3. New York has won 3 consecutive games. However, it’s the Chargers who are better than a field goal road favorite versus an opponent with a better record. The Chargers are coming off a 30-13 home win over Chicago in which they covered as a 9.5-point favorite. Any NFL away favorite of 3.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 25.0 or less and scored 21 points or more, versus an opponent with a .400 or better win percentage, resulted in those away favorites like the Chargers going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 1984. Give me the Chargers minus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bills +2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Cincinnati 8:15 PM ET Game# 8:20 PM ET Play On: Buffalo +2.5 A lot of people have written off Buffalo but I’m not one of them. Granted they’ve looked anything like a serious Super Bowl contender during a listless 5-3 start to the season. Now they’re about to face a Cincinnati team that’s rounded into form over the last 3 games and very much appears like they’re going on another deep postseason run. However, why are they just a 2.5-point home favorite? This looks like a huge trap to take the small home favorite that’s on a red-hot roll right now. However. keep in mind that Buffalo hasn’t been an underdog very much in recent seasons but when that occurs, they’ve been money in the bank. Specifically speaking, the Bills are 6-0 ATS including 5-1 SU in their last 6 as a regular season underdog of 3.0 or less while averaging a massive 39.2 points scored per game. Their only SU loss in that sequence came when Kyler Murray hooked up with Deandre Hopkins on a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last playoff the game which enable Arizona to defeat Buffalo 34-32. Give me the Bills plus points as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers OVER 44 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
Colts @ Panthers 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Over 44.0 The Colts have scored 21 points or more in a66 8 games this season while playing 6-2 to the over. As a matter of fact, Indy has played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 with a combined 66.3 points scored per game. The negative aspect of all that for the Colts is their defense is border line atrocious while allowing 28.6 points and 371.3 yards per game. Dring their previous 3 hames they’ve allowed 37, 39, and 38 points respectively. The Panthers are no offensive juggernaut but they have averaged 20.0 points scored per game in their last 5 and look for them to improve on that number versus a Porous Colts defensive unit. The Panthers aren’t without their defensive issues as well while allowing 37 points or more in 3 of their last 5. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-05-23 | Rams +3 v. Packers | 3-20 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Rams @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Rams +3.0 I don’t care if it’s Mathew Stafford or Brett Rypien at quarterback for the Rams. I’m fading the Packers either way. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is looking more and more like a genuine first round bust. The Packers are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 contests. Furthermore, their previous 3 losses came versus Las Vegas, Denver, and Minnesota, none of which currently possess a winning record. The Rams are coming off back-to-back losses versus Pittsburgh and Dallas who have a combined 10-5 record. Any NFL road underdog of 3.5 or less like the Rams that’s coming off a SU loss who has a win percentage of .300 or better, versus an opponent like Green Bay who’s playing after Game 7 and has lost 4 or more games in a row with the last defeat coming by 10 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Those underdogs won all 15 of those contests SU and by an average of 8.5 points per game. Give me the Rams plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bucs +3 v. Texans | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Houston 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Tampa Bay +3.0 Despite their uninspiring 3-4 record which includes a current 3-game losing streak, Tampa Bay is still very much a contender in a wide open NFC South race. The Bucs have been much better on the road than at home this season while going 2-1 SU&3-0 ATS during those contests. Houston is coming off a 15-13 road loss to then winless Carolina which dropped their season record to 3-4. Any NFL away underdog of 4.0 or less like Tampa Bay that has a win percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent like Houston that’s coming off a SU loss and they possess a win percentage of .400-.490, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 2012. The away underdogs also won 14 of those 16 contests straight up. Give me Tampa Bay plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Commanders +3 v. Patriots | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Commanders @ Patriots 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Commanders +3.0 New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in non-division contests this season while losing by an average of 19.5 points per game. The Patriots are also a poor 1-3 SU&ATS at home and the only time they were a favorite in those 4 contests they failed miserable during a 34-0 blowout loss to New Orleans. New England has been anemic offensively in their dismal 2-6 start to the season while averaging a mere 14.8 points scored per game and 284.8 yards gained per contest. Washington is coming off a disheartening 38-31 home loss to the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles and pushed as a 7.0-point underdog. They outgained the Eagles in that contest by a wide margin of 472-374 and also squandered an early 14-3 lead. However, Washington is a more than respectable 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road thus far. The Commanders are also a profitable 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog. Give me the Commanders plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bears v. Saints OVER 41 | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Chicago @ New Orleans 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Over 41.0 Since 11/8/2021, Chicago has played 5-0 to the over as a non-division away underdog when the number was between 39.5 and 45.5 and there was a combined average of 60.0 points scored per game. Chicago is coming off last Sunday night’s 30-13 road loss to the Chargers. The Bears are 4-0 to the over in their last 4 when playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games and there was a combined average of 57.5 points scored per game. Chicago has played 6-2 to the over in all games this season and that includes 3-0 when the number is 44.5 or less. New Orleans has gone over the total in their last 2 with a combined 60.0 points scored per game. The New Orleans passing attack is clicking on all cylinders over their previous 3 games while averaging 328.7 yards through the air per contest. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-04-23 | LSU +3.5 v. Alabama | 28-42 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
LSU @ Alabama 7:45 PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: LSU +3.5 Alabama has won 6 straight games since being upset at home by Texas. Nonetheless, 2 of their last 3 wins came by 6 or less and the lone exception was a 34-20 win over Tennessee in which they trailed 20-7 at halftime. The Crimson Tide has scored 26 points or fewer in 5 of the last 7 games. That can be problematic when considering they’ll be facing a dynamic and explosive LSU offense that averages 47.4 points scored and 553.1 yards game per game. That includes 44.2 points scored and 554.6 yards gained per game while going 4-1 in SEC contests. Alabama hasn’t bee this low a home favorite since 9/22/2007 when they were -3.0 versus Georgia and lost 26-23. The current line speaks volumes to me, and the sportsbooks are begging you to take Alabama as a small home favorite. I’m not taking the bait. Give me LSU plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Washington v. USC +3 | 52-42 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
USC @ Washington 7:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: USC +3.0 USC barely escaped with a 50-49 win over California last Saturday. The trojans national championship aspirations ended after losing back-to-back game to Notre Dame and Utah. The Trojan offense led by star quarterback Caleb Williams is championship caliber, but their defense has been an enigma and a huge liability. However, USC would like nothing better than to hand Washington their first loss of the season and put a dent into their College Football Playoff hopes. They’ll certainly be motivated since they’re an underdog at home. The undefeated Huskies and star quarterback Michael Pennix are very good. However, they haven’t exactly been blowing away the competition of late. As a matter of fact, their last 4 wins have all come by 9 points or fewer. That includes the last 2 versus Arizona State (2-6) and Stanford (2-6). Give me USC plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas +3 v. Iowa State | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Iowa State 7:00 PM ET Game# 379-380 Play On: Kansas +3.0 Everyone and their Uncle are banking on the fact that Kansas (6-2/.750) is going to in for an emotional letdown after upsetting undefeated Oklahoma at home last Saturday. On most occasions I would agree with that logic, but not in this instance. Yes, Iowa State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Nonetheless, those victories came over TCU, Cincinnati (2-6), and Baylor (2-5). This is also an Iowa State team that lost to the Ohio Bobcats earlier this season and was blown out by 50-20 against Oklahoma. Additionally, since 2021, Iowa State has gone 1-6 SU when facing fellow Big 12 Conference teams with a win percentage of .750 or better. Give me Kansas plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Penn State v. Maryland +9 | Top | 51-15 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Maryland +9.0 #9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests. Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Jacksonville State +15.5 v. South Carolina | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Jacksonville State @ South Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 331-332 Play On: Jacksonville State +15.5 This will be the largest crowd that Jacksonville State will play in front of all year. The Jaguars enter this matchup versus a team from the mighty SEC with a stellar 7-2 record and this game has far greater meaning to them as opposed to South Carolina. Afterall, the Gamecocks are taking a break from their hear of their SEC schedule to face an opponent who’s a first year FBS participant. Additionally, it’s not like the Gamecocks (2-6) carry a lot of momentum with them heading into this contest considering they’re currently on a 4-game losing streak. It’s also worth noting, Jacksonville State is at a +9 turnover differential this season while South Carolina is -6. Give me Jacksonville State plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas State +3.5 v. Texas | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Kansas State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: Kansas State +3.5 Considering Texas is without their starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, and how both teams have performed during recent game, I strongly believe the underdog is the better team at this juncture. To be clear, I didn’t say the more talented squad, but the better team. Kansas State has lost the last 6 versus Texas, but 5 of those 6 contests were decided by 7 points or fewer. Since Quinn Ewers went down with an injury, the Texas offense has put up pedestrian numbers of 362 and 354 total yards in those 2 games which is well below their season average of 454.4. Since being upset at Oklahoma State, #25 Kansas State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outscored their opponents (Houston, Texas Tech, TCU) by a cumulative score of 120-24. Give me Kansas State plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Arkansas v. Florida -3 | 39-36 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Arkansas @ Florida 12:00 PM ET Game# 399-400 Play On: Florida -3.0 The public has hammered the underdog Razorbacks in this contest to the point this line went from 5.5 to 3.5 over the last 24 hours. Granted. Arkansas has been a tough luck team this season when considering that 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or fewer. Nonetheless, all 6 of those defeats have come over their previous 6 games. The Razorbacks have found ways to lose games they deserved to win on a couple of occasions. When teams are stuck in that mode for a prolonged period, they become mentally fragile. Furthermore, the Razorbacks offense has been anemic over their last 4 contests while averaging a mere 16.5 points scored and 227.5 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Florida Gators team that’s a perfect 4-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 23.5 points per game and includes an upset win over #19 Tennessee. I’ll be in the minority with this pick, but that’s perfectly fine with me. Give me Florida minus points. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Boston College @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Boston College +3.0 Syracuse has been consistent with their recent trend under current head coach Dino Babers on getting off to fast starts while facing a soft schedule, and then tailing off once getting into the heart of ACC action. The Orange began the season 4-0 while facing opponents the likes of Colgate (2-5), Western Michigan (3-6), Purdue (2-6), and Army (2-6). Since that time, they’ve gone 0-4 SU&ATS while being outscored by 29.0 points and outgained by 298.8 yards per game. The low point may have come in last week’s 38-10 loss against an average at best Virginia Tech team where they were outgained in total yards by a decisive margin of 528-138. They’ve scored 14 points or fewer and amassed 286 yards or less of total offense in each of those 4 losses. Conversely, Boston College enters this week on a 4-game win streak and is just 1 victory shy of bowl eligibility. The Eagles have already far exceeded College Football so-called expert’s preseason predictions. The Eagles are coming off a 21-14 home win over Connecticut in a game they outgained the Huskies 433-222 and wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. Any College Football away team like Boston College that’s won 4 or more games in a row and their previous victory came by 9 points or fewer, versus an opponent like Syracuse who’s lost 4 or more consecutive games in a row, and their last defeat came by 6 points or more while also allowing 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 26-2 SU (92.3%) since 1986. The SU betting angle takes on added value since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Give me Boston College plus points. |
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11-02-23 | Titans +3 v. Steelers | 16-20 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Titans @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Titans +3.0 Tennessee is coming off a much needed 28-23 win over Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. 2023 first round draft choice quarterback Will Levis was brilliant in his starting debut while throwing for 4 touchdowns against 0 interceptions. Pittsburgh is coming off a 20-10 loss to Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Steelers have a deceiving 4-3 record. I say that because they’ve been outscored by 4.9 yards and outgained by 110.9 yards per game. Not exactly the type of numbers that’s conducive to a winning record. Their defense has been very good, but the offense has been a polar opposite and that’s atrocious. The Steelers have scored just 9 offensive touchdowns throughout their 7 games this season. Any NFL non-division away underdog of 3.0 or less like Tennessee that’s coming off a home underdog SU win in which they covered by 6.5-points or greater, resulted in those away underdogs going 11-0 ATS since 2019. Give me the Titans plus points. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions UNDER 46.5 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Lions 8:15 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Under 46.5 The Raiders have scored 18 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games this season. The Las Vegas defense has played very good over their last 4 contests while allowing just 293.0 yards per game. The Raiders are coming off a 30-12 loss at Chicago as a favorite of 2.5 and it went over the total of 38.0. Since 2021, the Raiders have played 7-0 to the under on the road when there was a total of 51.0 or less and they’re coming off an over in their previous game. The average total in those 7 contests was 44.4 and there were 34.6 points scored per game. Detroit is coming off an embarrassing 38-6 blowout loss at Baltimore. Since 2021, the Lions have played 7-0 to the under when the number is between 45.5 and 51.5 all with a combined average of 35.1 points scored per game. |
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10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers -5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Bengals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: 49ers -5.0 Cincinnati is coming off a home favorite ATS 17-13 win over Seattle. Nevertheless, that Bengals win was a bit deceiving since they were outgained in the contest by a wide margin of 169 yards. It was more a result of Seattle failing miserably to cash in on their scoring opportunities more than anything else. San Francisco started the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL while doing so. However, they’re coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses against Minnesota and Cleveland. NFL betting history has shown that teams like San Francisco in this exact situation have done very well. NFL home favorites of 3.0 or more that are coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses and their facing an opponent like Cincinnati who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts +2.5 | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
Saints @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Colts +2.5 The Colts have shot themselves in the foot with turnovers in recent games. Otherwise, their offense has been very good over the last 3 contests, and they outgained opponents by 114.0 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans is 2-2 SU on the road, but their 2 wins came over Carolina and New England that have a combined 2-11 record thus far. Give me the Colts plus points. |
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10-29-23 | Jaguars -130 v. Steelers | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Steelers 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Jaguars -130 (ML) The Steelers are a fraud at 4-2 as they’ve been outscored by 4.0-points and outgained by 110.0 yards per game. Not to mention a turnover differential of -4 through 6 games. Their defense has been their main catalyst which has attributed to their modest early success. However, the Steelers offense is averaging just a mere 273.5 total yards per game and 27:06 in time of possession. Jacksonville enters this matchup red-hot having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with an average victory margin of 11.3 points per game. The Jags are also 4-0 SU&ATS this season during away and neutral site games. We unequivocally have the better starting quarterback in this matchup with Trevor Lawrence over Kenny Pickett. The Jags are a noteworthy +6 in the turnover department this season. Give me the Jaguars as a money line favorite. |
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10-29-23 | Vikings -110 v. Packers | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Vikings -110 (ML) The Packers were off to an encouraging 2-1 start and things have gone south since. Green Bay is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and their offense has averaged just 16.0 points scored and 282.0 yards gained per contest during this current losing streak. Conversely, the Vikings defense has really stepped up their game of late. Throughout their previous 4 contests Minnesota has allowed 16.5 points and 291.3 yards per game. Since 2021, Minnesota is 7-2 SU as a road favorite. During that same 3-year stretch, the Vikings are 5-0 SU when coming off 2 games in a row that went under the total. Once again, we have a decided starting quarterback advantage in this matchup with Kirk Cousins over Jordan Love. Give me the Vikings on the money line. |
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10-28-23 | Air Force -14 v. Colorado State | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
Colorado State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Air Force -14.0 Any conference away favorite like Air Force of between 12.0 and 21.0 with a win percentage of .500 or better who’s playing after Game 7 and is coming off a win in which they allowed 31 points or fewer, versus an opponent like Colorado State who has a losing record and is coming off an ATS cover, resulted in those away favorites going 33-4 ATS (89.1%) since 2014. Give me Air Force minus points. |
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10-28-23 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Wyoming @ Boise State 5:30 PM ET Game# 163-164 Play On: Wyoming +5.0 Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and won 2 of those contests straight up. The Cowboys will be well rested after having their last week off and after a game in which they gave nationally ranked Air Force (7-0) all they can handle in a 34-27 road loss while covering as a 12.5-point underdog. Wyoming is at a +6-turnover differential for the season and hasn’t turned the ball over during each of their previous 3 games. In my professional opinion, Boise State has been overvalued all season due to their winning tradition. This is another prime example of such. The Broncos have really struggled defensively over their previous 4 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 399.0 yards per game. Give me Wyoming plus points. |
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10-28-23 | UL-Lafayette +11.5 v. South Alabama | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette @ South Alabama 5:00 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: UL-Lafayette +11.0 Any conference away underdog of between 4.5 and 13.5 with a win percentage of .625 or worse like UL-Lafayette, and they’re playing in Games 6 through 9, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss by 19 points or fewer, resulted in those away underdogs going 31-1 ATS (96.8%) since 2016. Those underdogs also won 20 of those 32 games outright. Give me UL-Lafayette plus the points. |
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10-28-23 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -18.5 | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Miami -18.5 Miami is coming off an impressive 28-20 win over Clemson. Virginia is coming off a massive 31-27 upset win over undefeated North Carolina and did so as a 24.0-point home underdog. Additionally, it was the 1st win over an FBS opponent by Virginia this season. This creates a rare betting situation that shows teams like Virginia fall from grace extremely quickly in their next game after pulling off a stunner of this magnitude. Any College Football away underdog of between 10.0 and 35.0 that’s playing before Game 12 and is coming off an away underdog of 17.0 or more SU win in which they scored 21 points or greater, versus an opponent like Miami who is coming off a SU win, resulted in those away underdogs going 0-7 ATS since 1987. The average margin of defeat in those contests came by an enormous 39.3 points per game. |
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10-28-23 | Mississippi State +6.5 v. Auburn | 13-27 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ Auburn 3:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: Mississippi State +6.5 Mississippi State is coming off a 7-3 upset win at Arkansas in a game they closed as a 7.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 4-3 (.571). The Bulldogs are now 13-9 SU in their last 22 games. Auburn will enter this SEC battle on a 4-game losing streak and their season record is currently 3-4 (.428). Any College Football away underdog of between 1.5 to 7.5 like Mississippi State who’s coming off a conference away underdog SU win, they have a win percentage of .555 or better and won 11 or more of their last 22 games, versus an opponent like Auburn who has a win percentage of .714 or worse, resulted in those road underdogs going 20-0 ATS since 2003. Those underdogs also won 14 of those 20 games outright. Give me Mississippi State plus points. |
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10-28-23 | Houston v. Kansas State -17 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Houston @ Kansas State 12:00 PM ET Game# 189-190 Play On: Kansas State -17.0 Any College Football home favorite of between 10.5 and 19.5 like Kansas State that’s playing after Game 4 that’s coming off a conference SU win by 7 or more in which they scored 35 points or greater, versus an opponent like Houston coming off a conference SU loss by 7 or less in which they allowed 24 points or greater, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 16 contests came by a decisive margin of 27.2 points per game. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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10-26-23 | Georgia State +1.5 v. Georgia Southern | 27-44 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Georgia State +1.5 Georgia Southern is 5-2 but failed to cover in their last 2 games. Throughout their previous 3 games, the Georgia Southern defense has allowed 32.3 points and 427.0 yards per game. Georgia State enters this contest with a stellar 6-1 record which includes going 3-0 SU&ATS on the road. In a game between 2 seemingly even matched teams, it could simply come down to who wins the turnover battle. Georgia State has committed just 7 turnovers in 7 games this season. Conversely, Georgia Southern has committed 7 during just their 2 last games alone, and has an alarming high 17 giveaways on the season. Georgia State is 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 conference away games when the point-spread was between +6.0 and -6.0. Any College Football team like Georgia State with a point-spread between +8.5 to -8.5 who has a winning record, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win, versus an opponent like Georgia Southern that has a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those teams like Georgia State going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average line for those winning teams in that exact situation was -1.8 and they won by an average of 15.6 points per contest. Give me Georgia State. |
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10-25-23 | Jacksonville State v. Florida International OVER 49.5 | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Jacksonville State @ FIU 7:00 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Over 49.5 Neither defense has played well in each of their last 4 games. During their last 4 FIU is allowing 31.5 points and 455.0 yards per game. Conversely, Jacksonville State has given up 25.3 points and 439.8 yards per game throughout their previous 4. Each offense has shown improvement over each of their previous 3 contests that exceeds their season offensive numbers. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 54 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech 7:00 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Over 54.0 Since 2021, Louisiana Tech has played 12-2 to the over at home with a combined 66.4 points scored per game. As a matter of fact, they’ve played 3-0 to the over during their last 3 home this year and with a combined average of 70.7 points scored per game. New Mexico State has played an extremely soft schedule this year. However, the 1 qulaity team that faced was Liberty (7-0) and they allowed 33 points and 526 yards. The Aggies have a very good rushing attack that averages a tad over 200 yards per game and better than 6.0 yards per attempt. They’ll be facing a Louisina Tech defense which is allowing 199 yards rushing per game. During their last 3 contests, the Aggies are averaging 29.7 points scored per game, 445.3 yards gained per contest, and an impressive 7.0 yards per offensive play. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings UNDER 43.5 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
49ers @ Vikings 8:15 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Under 43.5 The Vikings have gone under in each of their previous 3 with a combined average of 37.7 points scored per game. During that stretch, their defense allowed only 280.0 yards per game while the offense accounted for just 271.3 yards per contest. San Francisco is coming off a 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland in a game they closed as a 9.5-point favorite. However, San Francisco is #2 in scoring defense thus far while allowing a mere 14.5 points scored per contests. Any NFL team like the 49ers that’s playing after Game 2 in a Monday night contest, and they’re coming off a SU favorite loss in which they allowed 38 points or fewer, resulted in those games playing 18-0 to the under since 2019. There was a combined average of 39.5 points scored per game. Additionally, 8 of those contests had a total of 46.5 or less and those averaged a combined 35.9 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Eagles | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Dolphins +3.0 Both teams enter this much anticipated matchup with stellar 5-1 (.833) records. Nevertheless, Miami was the more impressive of the 2 teams. Philadelphia has outscored their opponents by an average of 5.1 points and outgained them by 97.0 yards per game. Conversely, Miami has outscored opponents by an average of 11.2 points and outgained them by 155.0 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season as they fell 20-14 on the road last Sunday at the New York Jets. Miami is coming off a 42-21 home win over Carolina. Any non-division away team like Miami with a point-spread of between +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing after Game 4 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive away games with the last of which being a SU loss by 6 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2018. Give me Miami plus points. |
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10-22-23 | Chargers v. Chiefs -5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Chiefs -5.0 The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 home loss to Dallas which dropped their season record to an underachieving 2-3 (.400). The Chargers have lost 3 consecutive games to Kansas City, but all 3 defeats came by 6 points or fewer. However, this is a much better Chiefs defense than the ones they faced in the previous 3 meetings. I’ve heard a lot of chatter this week about Kansas City being an overvalued home favorite in recent years. However, my trusted 4d Handicapping Software Program tells me differently. The Chiefs are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 and 12-7 ATS during their previous 19 as a home favorite. That includes 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS when facing opponents like the Chargers that are coming off a SU loss, and with a decisive average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. The Chiefs have won 5 in a row since an opening night 21-20 home loss to Detroit (5-1). During that stretch, this current win streak, Kansas City’s defense has allowed an average of 13.4 points and 267.2 yards per contest. The Chiefs will also being playing with an additional 3 days rest after defeating Denver 19-8 in a Thursday night game. Any NFL division favorite of -4.5 to -12.5 like Kansas City who’s coming off a division win, versus an opponent like the Chargers who are coming off a SU loss and have a win percentage of between .187 and .428, resulted in those division favorites going 8-0 ATS since 2019. Those teams won those 8 contests by a substantial margin of 16.6 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus the points. |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts +3.5 | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Browns @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Colts +3.5 The Browns are coming off a huge upset win as a home underdog of +9.5 over the previously unbeaten 49ers. They did so while starting their 3rd quarterback (P.J. Wlaker) in 5 games. Although the Cleveland defense has been spectacular, the same can’t be said for their offense. Despite their 3-2 (.600) record, Cleveland is averaging only 19.0 points scored and 319.8 yards gained per game. The Browns have yet to win 2 in a row and are 0-2 SU&ATS following a victory. The Colts are coming off a 37-20 loss at Jacksonville. That margin of victory was deceiving when considering they held a 354-233 totals yards advantage in that contest. They were plagued by a season high 4 offensive turnovers. Despite the defeat, the Colts are still a respectable 3-3 and that includes 2-0 SU&ATS following a loss. Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .333 or better like the Colts that’s playing after Game 5, and they’re coming off a road loss, versus an opponent like the Browns that are coming off an upset SU win as a home underdog of +7.0 or greater, resulted in those home teams going 25-0 SU since 1995. Considering the SU betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on even added significance. Give me the Colts plus the points. |
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10-21-23 | Colorado State v. UNLV -7 | Top | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
Colorado State @ UNLV 7:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: UNLV -7.0 UNLV is coming off a 45-27 win at Mountain West Conference rival Nevada and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. Conversely, Colorado State comes off a 31-30 upset win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. UNLV has been red-hot offensively over their last 4 contests while averaging 43.5 points scored and 466.5 yards gained per game. The Rebels are also a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. UNLV also is at an impressive +9 turnover differential while getting off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season. They’ll be facing a 2-3 Colorado State team which has allowed 38.0 points and 485.0 yards per game. The Rams have committed a concerning 11 turnovers through 5 games. Any College Football conference home favorite of 23.0 or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 45 points or more, versus an opponent like Colorado State that’s coming off a conference home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Give me UNLV minus points. |
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10-21-23 | Central Michigan -5.5 v. Ball State | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Central Michigan @ Ball State 3:30 PM ET Game# 355-356 Play On: Central Michigan -5.5 Ball State is 0-6 SU this season when facing FBS opponents and were an uninspiring 1-4-1 ATS during those contests. They lost those 6 games by a substantial average of 24.7 points per contest. Central Michigan is coming off a 17-10 home win over Akron. Any college football away favorite of 4.5 to 10.0 like Central Michigan with a winning record that’s coming off a SU win in which they scored and allowed 17 points or fewer, and they’re playing after Game 3, resulted in those away favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2014. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by 20.8 points per game. Give me Central Michigan minus points. |
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10-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Illinois +3 | 25-21 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
Wisconsin @ Illinois 3:30 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Illinois +3.0 Wisconsin is coming off a 15-6 home loss to Iowa that dropped their season record to 4-2 (.667). Adding insult to injury was the Wisconsin starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai leaving the game with a broken hand and is out for Saturday’s game. Illinois is coming off a momentum building 27-24 win at Marland and did so as a sizable 13.0-point underdog. Any home pick or underdog of 2.5 or less, versus an opponent win percentage of .600 to .800 that’s coming off a SU loss, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory during those 10 contests came to an average of 7.8 points per game. Give me Illinois plus points. |
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10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 369-370 Play On: Minnesota +4.0 This qualifies as the fishiest line of the week. When that occurs, I almost always go against what seemingly is the obvious choice. Iowa is coming off a 15-6 upset win at Wisconsin. However, the Hawkeyes offense struggled once again while racking up just 237 yards of total offense of which 82 of those came on a 2nd quarter touchdown run. So basically, taking away that long jaunt the Hawkeyes amassed a mere 155 yards on 61 offensive plays with comes to a pathetic average of 2.5 yards gained per play. Minnesota is just 3-3 yet are just a 3.5-point underdog against the #24 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes who are 6-1. It must be noted that 2 of the Golden Gophers 3 losses came at the hands of #2 Michigan (7-0) and #10 North Carolina (6-0). If it loos too good to be true in sports betting more times than not it is. This is one of those times. Give me Minnesota plus points. |
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10-21-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -4.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET Game# 325-326 Play On: Ohio State -4.5 Both teams will enter this contest with identical 6-0 records. Public sports bettors have overwhelmingly sided with the underdog Penn State Nittany Lions thus far. Yet, the line has jumped from 4.0 to 5.0 which surely indicates a sharp money move. Ohio State has won the last 6 times they faced Penn State while winning by an average of 8.0 points per game. Any college football home favorite of 7.0 or less that has a win percentage of .833 or better that’s playing before Game 9 like Ohio State, and they’re coming off a win by 9 points or more, versus an opponent like Penn State with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin came by 11.7 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars +2 v. Saints | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Saints 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Jaguars +2.0 Much of the storyline for NFL bettors leading up to this game hinges on the availability of Jacksonville starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence who is listed as questionable with a knee injury. However, you cans do a lot worse than C.J. Beathard as your backup quarterback. Beathard proved in his time in San Francisco that he can temporarily step in and give his team a chance to win. During his last season with the 49ers in 2020, he appeared in 6 games and tossed 6 touchdown passes versus 0 interceptions. The Jaguars enter this contest riding a 3-game win streak. Jacksonville is 3-0 SU&ATS this season in neutral site and road games with a 10.3 point per game differential. Jacksonville is also a noteworthy +7 this season in the turnover differential category. They’ll be facing a Saints team that began the season 2-0 and has lost 3 of 4 since. The Saints rely heavily on their stellar defense because their offense has left much to be desired. Since 2021, the Saints are an uninspiring 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS at home. Any NFL away team like Jacksonville with a point-spread of +2.5 to -3.0 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent like New Orleans who played their previous 2 games on the road, and that opponent is playing in Games 5 through 9, resulted in the away teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory in those contests came by a substantial margin of 14.3 points per game. Give me the Jaguars plus points. |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys -122 v. Chargers | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Cowboys @ Chargers 8:15 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Cowboys -122 The Cowboys (3-2) are coming off a humiliating 42-10 loss at San Francisco in their previous game. However, this has been a resilient team with Mike McCarthy as their head coach. Dallas has gone 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 18.9 points per game. Additionally, recent NFL betting history highly favors Dallas in this exact betting situation. NFL money line away favorites coming off a loss by 12 points in which they allowed 40 points or greater and they possess a winning record, resulted in those away money line favorites going 19-2 (90.5%) since 2004. Furthermore, if they were facing an opponent like the Chargers who had a win percentage of .363 or better, they improved to 8-0 and with a victory marge of 10.8 points per game. Give me the Cowboys on the money line. |
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10-15-23 | Lions v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
Lions @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Buccaneers +3.5 The Lions certainly received their fair share of preseason hype and thus far have lived up to expectations by going 4-1. However, Tampa Bay has quietly flown under the radar with a 3-1 record with their lone defeat coming at the hands of defending NFC champion Philadelphia. The Bus are coming off their bye week and a convincing 26-9 win at New Orleans in their previous game. Throughout their first 4 games the Bucs are a +7 in turnover differential while the Lions are only +1 during their first 5 contests. I look for that to be a key factor in us getting the cover. NFL home teams like Tampa Bay that are coming off an underdog SU win and both teams in the contest have win percentages of .750 or better, resulted in those home teams going 26-6 SU (85%) and 23-8-1 ATS since 1983. If the home team was an underdog of between 2.0 and 4.0, they went 7-0 SU&ATS and won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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10-15-23 | Patriots v. Raiders -150 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Raiders -150 (ML) New England is coming off a 34-0 home loss to the New Orleans saints. They’ve now been outscored 72-3 and outgained 681-409 over their previous 2 games. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have scored 2 points or fewer in all 5 of their games while losing 4 of those contests. But for the game against Buffalo, the Raiders defense has been more than respectable in allowing an average of 19.0 points and 295.8 yards per game in their other 4 contests. NFL home favorites of 2.0 or greater like the Raiders that are coming off a home win, versus opponents like New England coming off a home favorite SU loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going a terrific 56-3 SU since 1982. Give me the Raiders as a money line favorite. |
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10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | 24-36 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
UCLA @ Oregon State 8:00 PM ET Game# 189-190 Play On: Under 54.5 UCLA has allowed 17 points or fewer in all 5 games this season and forced an eye-popping 13 turnovers. Throughout their previous 4 games, the UCLA defense has allowed 295 yards or less on each occasion. The last 2 of which came versus nationally ranked Washington State and Utah. Oregon State has allowed 7.7 points and 234.0 yards per game in their 3 contests at home this season. Both offenses run the ball a tad more than they throw it, and each defense has been very good against the run. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-14-23 | Missouri +2.5 v. Kentucky | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Missouri @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Missouri +2.5 Kentucky went into last week’s matchup with #1 Georgia with high hopes. After all, they were undefeated and looked impressive while doing so. Nevertheless, they were thoroughly exposed in a 51-13 defeat and allowed Georgia to amass 6608 total yards and average a whopping 8.3 yards per offensive play. They’ll have their hands full again when facing a Missouri offense that’s averaging 37.0 points scored and 533.7 yards per game. The Tigers are also averaging a superb 7.8 yards per offensive play that speaks to their big play ability. Missouri’s defense can be vulnerable at times, but Kentucky lacks the potent passing game that can make them pay. During their 3 SEC contests, Kentucky has averaged a mere 134.0 yards passing per game and completed just 45.3% of their aerial attempts. Give me Missouri plus points. |
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10-14-23 | USC v. Notre Dame -130 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
USC @ Notre Dame 7:00 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Notre Dame -130 (ML) Notre Dame (5-2) has played the tougher schedule and has the better defense in this matchup. Additionally, we have a 2-loss team in Notre Dame as a favorite against an undefeated and #10 ranked team like USC. For lack of a better phrase, the oddsmakers are giving you the winner in this contest and I’m more than willing to accept that offer. Notre Dame has also won the last 5 meetings in South Bend played between these perennial rivals and won by an average of 13.4 points per game. Despite their perfect 6-0 record, USC has allowed 36.7 points and 474.3 yards per contest over during their previous 3 games. They were extremely fortunate to escape with a 43-41 triple overtime win at home versus Arizona last week. Notre Dame is coming off their first loss of the season last week at Louisville where they shot themselves in the foot with 5 turnovers. Prior to that, “The Irish” committed only 2 turnovers in their first 5 games of the season. I’m willing to give them a pass last week after playing back-to-back road games versus 2 undefeated and nationally ranked opponents. This week they return home in a huge rivalry game in which they can possibly spoil their opponent’s aspirations of possibly winning a national championship. Furthermore, they’ll be out for revenge after losing 38-27 at USC last season. The Blue and Gold will be primed to do exactly that. Any College Football home favorite of 9.0 or less that playing before Game 9 like Notre Dame who is coming off an away favorite loss in which they allowed 38 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent like USC with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-1 ATS since and 16-0 SU. The average margin of victory during those 16 contests came by a decisive 17.8 points per game. Give me Notre Dame as a money line favorite. |
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10-14-23 | Wyoming v. Air Force -11 | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Wyoming @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Air Force -11.0 Wyoming is coming off a home 24-19 upset win over then #24 Fresno State last week which improved their season record to 5-1. Despite that stellar record, Wyoming is outgained by an average of 49.5 yards per game. That indicates to me they’re not as good as their record indicates. Air Force is 5-0 and coming off a bye week. Their last game was a 49-10 blowout win over San Diego State. Air Force has dominated the opposition in those 5 wins while outgaining them by 187.6 yards and outscoring them by 25.4 points per game. The Falcons will be out for revenge stemming from a 17-14 loss at Wyoming last season. The Falcons are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 21.0 and with an average victory margin of 29.4 points per game. Give me Air Force minus the points. |
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10-14-23 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -9 | 15-6 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Wisconsin 4:00 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Wisconsin -9.0 Wisconsin is coming off last week’s 24-13 home win over Rutgers that improved their season record to 4-1. That outcome also put them on a 3-game win streak in which they had a +7 turnover margin differential. Iowa is 5-1 but not nearly as good as their record indicates, and especially so on the offensive side of the ball where they average just 21.8 points and 250.5 yards per contest. Wisconsin will be seeking revenge stemming for a 24-10 loss at Iowa a year ago. The Hawkeyes are coming of a 20-14 win over Purdue. Comparatively, Wisconsin was a 38-17 blowout winner at Purdue earlier this season. Give me Wisconsin minus points. |
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10-14-23 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee -3 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee 3:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Tennessee -3.0 For starters, Tennessee will enter this game in Knoxville on Saturday riding a 13-game home win streak which saw them also go an extremely profitable 9-2 ATS when facing FBS opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee is 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 28.0 or less and with a substantial average victory margin of 33.6 points per game. Conversely, Texas A&M has lost 7 consecutive true road games and failed to cover on 6 of those occasions. Tennessee will also have the luxury of coming off a bye week. Compared to Texas A&M who lost a hard-fought battle with Alabama that saw them fall short in a 28-22 defeat. Rest and emotional edge favors Tennessee. Give me Tennessee minus points. |
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10-14-23 | BYU v. TCU -4.5 | 11-44 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
BYU @ TCU 3:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: TCU -4.5 Despite TCU being a mediocre 3-3, they find themselves as a touchdown favorite at home for this Saturday’s game versus a BYU team which is 4-1. There’s some deception when looking inside each team’s number as it relates to their records. BYU is at an average of -38.4 yards per game but still managed to win 4 of 5. Conversely, TCU is at an average of +104.3 points per game which indicates they’re better than just a 3-3 team. The Horned Frogs are coming off a disappointing 27-14 loss at Iowa State in a game they closed as a 6.0-point favorite. They were plagued by a -4-turnover differential in that contest. Since being torched by Colorado in their season opener, the TCU defense has steadily improved to the point where they’re allowing only 17.4 points and 326.2 yards per game over their previous 5 contests. Any College Football home favorite of 3.0 to 10.5 like TCU that’s playing before Game 8 of the season and they’re coming off a away favorite SU loss by 16 points or fewer in which they scored 29 or less, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 ATS since 2019. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by a decisive margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me TCU minus points. |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State +4.5 | 37-32 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ Utah State 8:00 PM ET Game# 179-180 Play On: Utah State +4.5 Fresno State is coming off a 24-19 loss at Wyoming last seek to drop their season record to 5-1. However, that 5-1 record is a bit deceiving since they barely escaped with a 34-31 home win over an FCS team in Eastern Washington, and their other 4 wins came over opponents (Purdue, Kent State, Nevada, Arizona State) who are a combined 2-18 SU this season versus FBS opponents. Utah State is coming off back-to-back wins to improve their season record to 3-3. Additionally, Utah State has now gone 16-12 in their last 28 at home which comes into play with our betting angle applied to this pick. During their previous 3 contests, the Aggies averaged 38.7 points scored and 518.3 yards of total offense per game. During that identical stretch, the Utah State defense forced 11 turnovers which is terrific. Last Saturday they were a convincing 44-24 home winner over Colorado State and did so as a closing 3.0-point underdog. Any College Football home team like Utah State with a win percentage of .700 or worse that’s playing between Games 5 through 9, and they’re coming off a home underdog SU win by 14 points or greater, and they’ve won 15 or more of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent like Fresno State coming off a SU loss by 5 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by a decisive margin of 23.5 points per game. Give me Utah State plus points. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Chiefs -10.0 The weather won’t be ideal in Kansas City on Thursday night with the forecast calling for a 62% chance of rain and winds of 22 to 25 MPH. The Chiefs unequivocally have the better defense and quarterback in this matchup. I look for that to be a huge factor in us attaining the cover when considering the expected weather conditions. Teams tend to lean more heavily on their running games in situations such as these. Denver has been atrocious versus the run over their last 4 contests while allowing 251.7 yards per game and an alarmingly high 7.1 yards per attempt. Conversely, the Chiefs are allowing only 16.0 points and 301.4 yards per game throughout a 4-1 start to the season which includes a current 4-game unbeaten streak. During this current win streak, the Chiefs defense is allowing only 14.7 points and 284.8 yards per game. Additionally, since 2021 Kansas City is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home when on a 4-game or more win streak and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 17.3 points per game. |
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10-11-23 | UTEP v. Florida International -129 | 27-14 | Loss | -129 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
UTEP @ FIU 7:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: FIU -129 UTEP is 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season. The Miners are coming off a 24-10 home loss to Louisiana Tech in their previous game. As a matter of fact, the Miners are an abysmal 0-24 SU in their last 24 road games as a pick or underdog and after a SU loss in their previous game. FIU is coming off loses to New Mexico State 34-7 and Liberty 38-6 during their previous 2 contests. That dropped the Golden Panthers season record to 3-3. Any College Football money line home favorite like FIU who’s playing after Game 6 with a win percentage of .250 or better, coming off back-to-back conference SU losses in which they allowed 31 points or more on each occasion, and they’re facing an opponent like UTEP that’s coming off a conference SU loss, resulted in those home money line favorites going 36-2 (94.7%) since 2018. Give me FIU as a money line favorite. |
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10-10-23 | Liberty v. Jacksonville State +7 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Jacksonville State 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Jacksonville State +7.0 This is an attractive Conference USA matchup that pits the 6-0 Liberty Flames against the 5-1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks. The home underdog Gamecocks are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games with a massive +10 turnover differential. Furthermore, Jacksonville State is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season while allowing only a combined 17 points. Any College Football home underdog of 3.0 to 7.5 (Jacksonville State) that’s playing after Game 3 with a win percentage of .800 or better, and they’re coming off a conference SU win, versus an opponent (Liberty) with a winning record and coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.1%) since 2018. The home underdogs also went 15-2 SU in those 17 situations as well. Give me Jacksonville State plus points. |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders -125 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Packers @ Raiders 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Raiders -125 Green Bay is coming off a 34-20 home loss to division rival Detroit which dropped their season record to 2-2. The Raiders have lost 3 straight and have fallen to 1-3. Monday Night NFL money line home favorites with a win percentage of .250 or better like Las Vegas, versus an opponent like Green Bay that’s coming off a division home loss by 10 points or more and they possess a win percentage of .538 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 27-0 SU since 1998. The average margin of victory in those 27 contests came by an average of 11.0 points per game. Give me the Raiders as a money line favorite. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
Cowboys @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Cowboys +4.0 Since 12/20/2020, Dallas has gone 5-0 SU&ATS as a regular season underdog of +3.0 to +5.5. The Cowboys even averaged 28.0 points scored per game during those upset wins. Dallas will also be playing with big time revenge after being eliminated in the playoffs by San Francisco in each of the last 2 years. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 38-3 home win over the New England Patriots. The 49ers have begun the season 4-0 and scored 30 points or more on each occasion. Any NFL away team like Dallas that’s coming off a win by 21 points or more in which they scored between 34 and 46 points, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by 10.0 points per game. Give me the Cowboys plus the points. |
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10-08-23 | Chiefs v. Vikings UNDER 52.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Vikings 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Under 52.5 The Chiefs are 3-1 and have held all 4 of their opponents to 21 points or fewer. As a matter of fact, over their previous 3 Kansas City has allowed 13.0 points and 270.0 yards per game. Since the start of last season, this will be the 4th time that Kansas City will be an away favorite of 5.5 or less with a total of 50.0 or more, and on each of the other 3 occasions those contests went under the total with a combined average of just 38.0 points scored per game. Minnesita’s offense has moved the ball well this season. However, they have shot themselves in the foot by committing 11 turnovers in their first 4 games. Any NFL away team like Kansas City with a win percentage of .600 to .750 that’s playing before Game 8 of their season, and they’re coming off an away win, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a losing record, resulted in those games playing 14-0 to the under since 2013. The average combined score in those 14 contests was 35.8 points per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Rams 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Rams +4.0 The Eagles enter Week 5 with a perfect 4-0 record. However, they really own just 1 impressive win which came at Tampa Bay. Their other 3 wins came over Minnesota (1-3), New England (1-3), and Washington (2-3) by a combined 14 points. Conversely, the Rams are 2-2 and their lone defeats came by a combined 10 points. Los Angeles is also 3-0 ATS since the start of last season as a home underdog of 2.5 to 6.5-points and won 2 of those 3 contests SU. Any home underdog of 2.0 or greater with a win percentage of .461 or better that’s coming off an an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 13.0 or less, versus an opponent like the Eagles with a win percentage of .733 or better, resulted in those home underdogs like the Rams going 15-0-1 ATS since 1986. Those home underdogs also won 1 of those 16 games straight up. The average line for those home underdogs was +3.9 and they outscored the favorites by an average of 4.9 points per game. Give me the Rams plus the points. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Cardinals 4:05 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Cardinals +3.5 The Bengals are the biggest early season disappointment thus far. They’re 1-3 and the lone win was a narrow 19-16 decision at home versus the Rams. Cincinnati has been completely listless in their 2 road games thus far while losing 24-3 versus Cleveland and 27-3 at Tennessee last Sunday. As a matter of fact, Cincinnati is averaging just 12.3 points scored and 236.0 yards of total offense per game thus far. Arizona is 1-3 thus far but covered 3 of those 4 contests. During their previous 3 games Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals offense has shown encouraging signs while averaging 24.0 points and 380.3 total yards per contest. They also didn’t commit any turnovers in those 3 contests. |
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10-07-23 | Oregon State v. California +9.5 | 52-40 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 52 m | Show | |
Oregon State @ California 10:00 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: California +9.5 I’m predicting a flat spot here for #15 Oregon State. They’re coming off 2 extremely tough games versus #13 Washington State and #18 Utah. Now they’re about to face an unranked California team that’s just 3-2 and has been irrelevant on the national landscape or even PAC-1 picture2 for quite a long time. However, Cal has forced 13 turnovers in their first 5 games and look for them to cause a few more on Saturday in what I’m forecasting as a mentally and emotional vulnerable spot for the visiting Beavers. The Bears offense is capable of having a productive game in this spot considering they amassed 502 yards of total offense versus #7 Washington just 2 weeks ago. The Bears are coming off a 24-21 home win over Arizona State last week. Cal has also won 3 of their last 4 at home versus Oregon State. Any conference home underdog of 2.5 to 11.5 like California that’s coming off a home win by 3 points or less, and they’re playing before Game 7 of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-1 ATS since 2009. The home underdogs also won 12 of those 18 games SU. Give me California plus points. |
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10-07-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +1.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
Alabama @ Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Texas A&M +1.5 Both teams come into this key SEC matchup with identical 4-1 records. Texas A&M is coming off last week's 34-22 neutral site win over Arkansas. Since losing at Miami, Texas A&M has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outgained their 3 opponents (UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas) by an average of 259 yards per game. The Alabama offense has been far from explosive over their previous 3 games while average just 342.0 yards per contest which is well below their standards, they’ve established under head coach Nick Saban. Since 2020, conference home teams after Game 4 that are coming off a conference win in which they scored 27 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 27-3 SU and 23-7 ATS. The SU results take on added significance in this case since it supports the underdog Texas A&M Aggies. |
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10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3 | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 50 h 47 m | Show | |
Washington State @ UCLA 3:00 PM ET Game# 379-380 Play On: UCLA -3.0 Washington State is 4-0, coming off a bye week, but comes up as a road underdog versus an unranked UCLA team. Speaking of the Bruins, they’re coming off their first loss of the season at Utah 14-7. They lost that contest despite holding the UTES to just 219 yards of total offense. Speaking of the UCLA defense, they’ve held opponents to 11.0 points and 263.8 yards per game during their 3-1 start. Even more impressive is they’ve held their first 4 opponents to a paltry average of 3.8 yards per play. Washington State is coming off 3 consecutive home game and an emotional 38-35 win over #15 Oregon State (5-1). Give me UCLA minus points. |
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10-07-23 | LSU -4.5 v. Missouri | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show | |
LSU @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET Game# 357-358 Play On: LSU -4.5 We have a 2-loss team in LSU (3-2) that’s a road favorite versus nationally ranked and undefeated Missouri (5-0). Yet, it’s LSU that comes up favorite in this spot. As a result, it comes as no surprise to me that public betting has heavily sides with the home underdog Missouri Tigers. If I said it once then I’ll say it a million times. When it comes to betting situations such as these think like oddsmakers because they’re not in the business of being generous to sports bettors. Additionally, Missouri won’t be able to stop LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and the explosive LSU passing game which has amassed 320 yards or more through the air in each of their 5 games played this season. Daniels has thrown for 16 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions and is averaging 342.0 yards passing per game. He’s also rushed for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns as well. Conversely, Missouri has allowed 281.7 yards passing per game over their last 3 contests. Give me LSU minus points. |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Illinois | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Nebraska @ Illinois 8:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Nebraska +3.5 Nebraska has rushed for 209 yards per game and averaged a healthy 5.5 yards per attempt. The Cornhuskers have also been adept at stopping the run as opponents are averaging only 2.9 yards per attempt against them. On the other hand, Illinois has allowed 164 yards or more rushing in 4 of 5 games this season. Illinois committed 11 turnovers in their first 4 games. After turning the ball over 4 times in each of their first 2 games, Nebraska has somewhat rid themselves of the turnover bugaboo and committed just 2 giveaways over their previous 3 games. Nebraska is coming off a 45-7 home loss to #2 ranked Michigan which dropped their season record to 2-3. Illinois enters this contest with an identical 2-3 season record. This sets a 100% College Football betting angle. Any College Football conference away underdog of between 2.0 to 5.5 that’s playing in Games 4 through 10 who is coming off a home loss by 18 points or more, and both teams in the matchup have losing records, resulted in those conference away underdogs with that specific point-spread parameter going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by 8.1 points per game. Give me Nebraska plus points. |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Bears @ Commanders 8:15 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Over 44.0 Washington is coming off a 34-31 overtime loss at Philadelphia. The Commander’s defense has been a major disappointment thus far. During their previous 3 contests, Washington has allowed 34.7 points and 400.0 yards per game. Conversely, the Bears have given up 33.0 points and 401.3 yards per game over their last 3 contests. The Bears blew a 28-7 second half lead at home to Denver last Sunday and lost 31-28. However, Justin Fields had his best game of the season while going 28-35 (80%) passing for 300 yards. The Bears have gone over the total in all 4 games this season and with a combined average of 51.3 points scored per contest. Washington has seen a combined average score of 52.3 points score per game during their first 4 contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech OVER 60 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Over 60.0 Western Kentucky is only giving up a deceiving 29.2 points per game. I say only because they’re also surrendering 472.8 yards per game but have been bailed out by forcing a significantly high average of 2.8 turnovers per game. The Hilltoppers have been and continue to be a pass happy offense. Specifically speaking, they have passed the ball on 64.7% of their offensive plays over their first 5 contests. During their lone conference away game, they lost to Troy 27-24 but allowed a concerning 521 yards on defense but once again limited the damage by forcing 3 turnovers. Louisiana Tech is coming off a rather low scoring 24-10 road win at UTEP. However, since 2021 they’ve played 8-0 to the over at home after playing on the road in their previous contest and there was a substantial combined average of 71.7 points scored per game. Louisiana Tech is 2-1 at home this year and amassed 432 yards or total offense on each occasion. They also averaged 36.7 points scored per game during those 3 home contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants OVER 47 | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ Giants 8:15 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Over 47.0 Seattle has allowed 316 yards or more passing in each of their first 3 games while giving up 29.3 points per contest. The Seahawks offense has produced 37 points scored in each of their previous 2 games while amassing 393 and 425 yards of total offense during those contests. The Giants offense is far from explosive but still not as bad as their early season numbers indicate. They’ve faced arguably the 2 best defenses in the NFC in San Francisco and Dallas during their first 3 games. However, when going up against Arizona’s stop unit in Week 2 the G-Men put up 31 points, 439 yards of total offense, and passed for 312 yards. The Giants are allowing 32.7 points per game. Any NFL home team like the Giants with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 that averages 285 yards or less of total offense per game, and they were outgained in their previous contest by 200 yards or more, resulted in those games playing 30-7 (81.1%) to the over since 1983. Those 37 contests averaged 6.1 points more than the closing total. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-01-23 | Cardinals v. 49ers -13.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: 49ers -13.5 These are water I very rarely swim in which is laying a double-digit number when it comes to NFL betting. However, there’s an exception to every rule and this one qualifies under that heading. The oddsmakers seem undeterred that the Cardinals (1-2) are coming off an impressive 28-16 win over Dallas in a game they closed as an 11.5-point home underdog and considering their 2 losses came by just a combined 7 points. However, they’ll be facing a beat on Sunday in San Francisco who’s 3-0 and outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 90-42. Any NFL home favorite of 11.5 or greater Like San Francisco that’s facing an opponent coming off a home underdog of 4.0 or more SU win, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 15-0 SU&ATS since 2002. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by an average of 24.6 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears OVER 46.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Bears 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Over 46.5 Denver has been pathetic in their last 2 games while surrendering a combined 105 points and 1114 yards. Even a struggling offense like the Bears possess should have moderate success against them. The Broncos offensive production during their previous 2 contests has put up respectable numbers of 26.5 points scored and 381.0 yards gained per game. The Bear defense has left much to be desired over their previous 2 games while giving up a combined 65 points and 890 yards. Chicago has gone over in each of their 3 contests in 2023 and there was a combined 51.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens v. Browns -120 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
Ravens @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Browns -120 A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but as of this present moment, I’m of strong belief that Cleveland is the better team in this matchup and especially defensively. The Browns are 2-0 at home and won each contest in dominating fashion by a cumulative score of 51-6. Cleveland did lose at Pittsburgh 26-22 but by no fault of their defense. Pittsburgh was a beneficiary of 2 defensive touchdowns in that contest. As a matter of fact, the Browns defense has allowed just 1 touchdown thus far in 2023. Cleveland has won their last 2 at home versus the Ravens. During their first 3 contests, the Browns stop unit allowed only an average of 163.7 yards per game. You may be surprised to know that since 12/19/2021, Baltimore has gone an abysmal 0-9 SU when facing teams with a winning record. Give me the Browns on the money line. |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars UNDER 43 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
Falcons vs. Jaguars 9:30 AM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Under 43.0 The Falcons are averaging 18.0 points per game and allowing 18.3 points per contest during their 2-1 start to the season. They’re also averaging just 287.7 yards gained and 283.3 yards allowed per contest thus far. Those numbers don’t exactly translate to an exciting brand of football. Jacksonville is coming off an embarrassing 38-17 division home loss to Houston which marked a 2nd consecutive defeat and dropped their season record to 1-2 (.333). The Jaguars have been regular travelers to Europe and recent seasons and have seen their last 4 go under the total with a combined average of 38.0 points scored per game. Any team like Jacksonville with a win percentage of between .250 to .400 that’s coming off a division loss by 10 points or more in which they allowed 28 points or greater, and there’s a total of 42.0 to 48.0, versus an opponent like Atlanta who has a winning record, resulted in those contests playing 25-1 (96.2%) to the under since 2012. That exact scenario except for a total is 44.5 or less, played 10-0 to the under since 2012 and with a combined average of 33.5 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee OVER 59.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
South Carolina @ Tennessee 7:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Over 59.5 The last 4 meetings between these schools have all gone over the total with a combined average of 71.4 points scored per game. I’m looking for a similar type of high scoring affair in this year’s matchup as well. Both teams’ offenses are balanced and very dynamic. Each defense is vulnerable. South Carolina allowed 519 yards including 487 through the air in last week’s 37-30 win over Mississippi State. The Gamecocks offense led by star quarterback Spencer Rattler is averaging 319 yards passing per game and an impressive 9.7 yards per aerial attempt. Tennessee averages 35.0 points scored and 463.8 yards per game thus far in 2023. Conversely, the Gamecocks defense allows 338 yards passing per game and an alarmingly high 8.7 yards per attempt. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas v. Texas -16 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Texas 3:30 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: Texas -16.0 I had Kansas last Saturday as my Game of the Week and they won and covered 31-20 as a 9.5-point home favorite over BYU. However, I was extremely fortunate for a few reasons. I was the beneficiary of not 1 but 2 defensive touchdowns by the Jayhawks. I was also able to cover despite BYU quarterback Kedon Slovis throwing for 357 yards. Unfortunately for Kansas, they’ll be facing a far stronger opponent this week in #3 Texas (4-0). Even with #24 Kansas (4-0) being unbeaten and nationally ranked themselves, they find themselves as a substantial double-digit underdog. This appears to me to be a trap where the underdog is a very attractive option. However, I’m electing to go with a contrarian mindset in this one. By the way, if you are worried about Texas playing archrival and unbeaten Oklahoma next, then don’t be. Texas has gone 2-0 SUU&ATS the last 2 seasons in the game before facing the Sooners while covering as a favorite on each occasion. This is also a far better Texas team than those past 2 versions were. It’s also worth noting, Texas has scored 50 points or more in their last 3 games versus Kansas. Give me Texas minus points. |
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09-30-23 | Baylor v. Central Florida -10.5 | 36-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Baylor @ UCF 3:30 PM ET Game# 135-136 Play On: UCF -10.5 Emotions will be high on Saturday afternoon in Orlando as Central Florida hosts their first ever Big 12 Conference game. The Golden Knights will also be out to atone for a disappointing 44-31 loss at Kansas State last week in a game they allowed 536 yards. UCF has an explosive offense which averages 38.3 points scored and 565.0 yards per game. The Golden Knights will be in a prime spot to make an impression against a Baylor team that’s 0-3 this season versus FBS opponents and allowed 440.3 yards per game. Any College Football favorite of 10.0 to 21.0-points like UCF that allowed 478 yards or more in their previous game, and they average 44o yards or more of total offense per game, versus an opponent like Baylor that allows 440.0 or more yards per contest, resulted in those home favorites going 45-17 ATS (72.6%) since 2014 and 16-4 ATS (80%) since 2017. Give me UCF minus points. |
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09-30-23 | Illinois v. Purdue +1 | 19-44 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
Illinois @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Purdue +1.0 Illinois is 2-2 but they’ve been far from impressive. Granted their losses have come versus national ranked team in Penn State by 17 and Kansas by 11. However, they escaped with home wins of 30-28 versus Toledo and 23-17 over Florida Atlantic. Purdue is 1-3 including 0-3 at home. However, they killed themselves with a combined 7 turnovers in double-digit loss to Syracuse (4-0) and Wisconsin (3-1). They had no trouble moving the ball in those defeats while amassing 396 yards of total offense versus Wisconsin and 403 against Syracuse. The good news is they’ll be facing an Illinois team that’s a turnover differential of -6 in their first 4 games and their defense is allowing 423.3 yards per contest. This is a very winnable game for the Boilermakers and especially so at home. Give me Purdue. |
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09-30-23 | Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 46 | 14-33 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
Florida @ Kentucky 12:00 ET Game# 139-140 Play On: Under 46.0 Kentucky has allowed a mere 15.0 points and 287.3 yards per game in their 3 contests versus FBS opponents this season. Kentucky’s offensive numbers can be a bit misleading considering they’ve played Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt. Kentucky has played 7-0 to the under since the start of last season when facing a team with a winning record and there was a combined average of just 36.4 points scored per game. Conversely, Florida has allowed 15.7 points and 256.0 yards per game in its 3 contests versus FBS teams. The Gators saw all 3 of those games stay under and with a combined average of 36.3 points scored per contest. Florida has seen their last 3 versus Kentucky all go under the total and with a combined 35.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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