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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
305 Cleveland at Kansas City In order to compete with the Chiefs you need to match them on the scoreboard. This Cleveland team has the ability to do so. It’s the most explosive running attack in the NFL, and KC is weak against the run. The Chiefs should have a field day passing on this Browns defense. Sure Cleveland will get its two best secondary players back, but Kansas City has more than two major weapons in the passing game. The Browns are extremely weak covering tight ends, so Kelce should have a monster day. We expect this game to be high scoring with both teams finding plenty of success. PLAY OVER |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
302 Los Angeles at Green Bay This Rams defense is legit, holding 8 of 17 opponents this year to it’s three lowest yardage totals on the season. And it’s getting better as the year has gone on. In fact, 4 of the last 5 opponents have been held to bottom three seasonal outputs. The only team to have any yardage success, was the Jets in that shocking 17 point underdog upset. The Rams are starting a quarterback with a broken thumb on his throwing hand in a cold weather game. Not the ideal situation for a warm weather visitor. With offenses struggling we expect this to be a tightly fought low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
499 Ohio State & Alabama We are taught to buy low and sell high in sports betting. Ohio State is off its best game of the season by far, with a 144.7 game grade according to Phil Steele. The previous high was against Michigan State 129.9. Ohio State has a tremendous +2.8 ypc advantage (6.0-3.2). Offensively Ohio State was either first or second in yards vs every opponent they played this season. The Buckeyes really only played against one good QB all season, last week against Clemson, and they permitted 400 passing yards. Alabama has a 1.9 ypc advantage on the season (5.1-3.2). The Tide defensively held just two teams to season lows in yardage, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Alabama struggled defensively against competent passing offenses. This game looks like a complete shootout as we can't see either defense making stops. Keep in mind both these teams played games in which they had big leads and turned off the offensive faucet. Don't think that will be the case here. PLAY OVER |
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01-03-21 | Jets +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 23 m | Show |
115 NY Jets at New England Now that tanking for Trevor is over in New York, the Jets have played really good ball the last two weeks. It also helps that New York just played a Browns team without its top four receivers. Because the New England passing game downfield has been non-existent this season. The Patriots have a short week of preparation, from playing Monday night. This is also a quick revenge game for the Jets who should have beaten the Pats on national television just a few weeks ago. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +7 v. Georgia | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
327 Cincinnati & Georgia Plenty of reasons to back the Bearcats here. This is an undefeated team with a chance to play a top team from the SEC. Cincinnati feels they were slighted by the selection committee and have something to prove. Georgia on the other hand did not have dreams before the season to be playing in this game. Their expectations were much higher. Throw in the fact that many of the top players for the Bulldogs are sitting out in preparation for the draft. And we have a team likely not fully focused on the contest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans -7.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
464 Cincinnati at Houston The Bengals just played their Super Bowl on Monday night with a third string quarterback against their hated rival. Keep in mind even in that game how bad this offense has been. Now it’s taking on a Houston scoring unit that has moved the ball well all season. While Monday was the big game for the Bengals, this game means more for the disappointing Texans who actually entered the season with high expectations. Houston lets out some frustrations here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
283 Liberty & Coastal Carolina in Orlando Short and sweet. Our numbers have this as a four point advantage with the favorite. A one point loss cost Liberty its own undefeated season. And because of the national press Coastal has gotten, this line is inflated. Liberty has the ability to run the football extremely well and keep the opposition at bay. This game goes down to the final possession. PLAY LIBERTY |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
367 San Francisco at Dallas Late smart money has been backing the Niners this morning. We agree with the line move, good time to bet against a Cowboys team just playing out the season. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6 | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
232 Oklahoma & Iowa State in Arlington Since Matt Campbell has come to Ames the Cyclones have fared well against the Sooners. Earlier this year Iowa State won 37-30, as a 7.5 point underdog. Last year as a 14.5 point underdog they lost by a single point. In 2018 Iowa State was an 18.5 point underdog and only lost by 10. In 2017 the Cyclones upset the Sooners 38-31 as a whopping 31 point underdog. In 2016 Iowa State lost by 10 while getting 20.5 points. That’s a perfect 5-0 ATS covering by 85 combined points. When looking at Phil Steele’s average game grades the Sooners should only be a 2.7 point favorite. Under Matt Campbell the Cyclones are 18-8 ATS as an underdog. Give us the better coached team catching points in a series they have dominated ATS. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
130 Boise State at Wyoming The Broncos have dominated this series winning 13 of 14 meetings. But last years game went to overtime, and this line is simply too high. Tough to back a road favorite who is being outgained 4.6 yards per carry to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. Despite the 4-1 record Boise State has given up seven first downs more than they have obtained. This is a big play offense that is taking on a stop unit that allows just 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Wyoming the past four games have permitted just 92, 158, 255 and 110 yards through the air. This is also just the second home game of the season for the Cowboys. The last five seasons Wyoming is 21-6 straight up at War Memorial Stadium. A win here extends the Cowboys non-losing seasons streak to five years, that’s important in these trying times. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-12-20 | Michigan State v. Penn State -14.5 | Top | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 117 h 45 m | Show |
392 Michigan State at Penn State The Spartan running attack has been pathetic all season averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. Only once has this team broken the 4 ypc barrier, and that was 4.1 ypc against Northwestern. The passing game was adequate the first two games but since then this team has thrown for 180, 167, 131 and 227 yards. In those last four games the Spartans have totaled 48 total points, just 12 per game. Now it takes on a rejuvenated Penn State squad. The Nittany Lions lost the turnover battle in each of its first five games. Tough to win and cover when you can’t hold on to the football. But the last two games turnovers were even and Penn State won both contests by a combined score of 50-24. On the season the Nittany Lions have a whopping +87 first down advantage when compared to the Spartans. This team made every mistake imaginable early, but the talent is now shining through. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
LA Rams at Arizona The Rams have dominated this series, as Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals. Wins by 33, 16, 22, 27 and 7 points. The key to the Rams offensive success is keeping Goff clean, and the Cardinals don’t put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Even less because of the Cardinals defensive injury situation. Add in the fact that Murray’s go to receiver Larry Fitzgerald is out, and we see a cheap number for Los Angeles. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-03-20 | Air Force -11 v. Utah State | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
325 Air Force at Utah State Huge edge for the Falcons here if you look at game grades. The lowest score of the season was 83.5 at San Jose State, while Utah State is averaging 70.1 on the season. So if Air Force matches its worst game, this line would make sense. Fortunately we expect a much better outcome for the Falcons here. Obviously Air Force wants to run the football, with a 5.8 ypc on the season. Utah State allows 5.1 ypc on the year. The Aggies have really struggled getting off the field, allowing 64 more first downs than they create. That’s not what you want to see when facing a team that runs the ball down your throat. Look for this game to be competitive early, but for the visitor to wear out the Aggies as the game progresses. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars OVER 48.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
257 Cleveland at Jacksonville Browns stats have been heavily influenced by bad weather games this season. Now playing in Florida in a game not expected to be heat related, we can see both these offenses having success. Both teams have major holes defensively in this game. Jacksonville is extremely thin in the defensive backfield. Cleveland on the other hand will be playing without its best two defenders, likely ProBowl talent. The line has risen this week but we still find plenty of value. PLAY OVER |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
474 LA Rams at Tampa Bay This is a tough matchup for the Rams defense. While the numbers say this stop unit is elite, we look a bit deeper. The Rams haven’t played an offense with this many different weapons. Tampa Bay uses offensive schemes that the Rams struggle with. Offensively we all know how Goff struggles under pressure and on the road. Tampa Bay does a great job of getting pressure. Better than just about anyone on the Rams schedule. While we know the strength of this defense in rushing the QB from the inside, which is a problem for Brady. We have much more concerns about Goff and the LA offense. In what could turn into a lower scoring game, we back the MNF favorite. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns -2 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 162 h 49 m | Show |
452 Philadelphia at Cleveland Very surprised by the current line on this game as the Eagles continue to underperform. The only Philadelphia wins this season have come against a banged up 49ers team, the NY Giants and Dallas. Against the AFC Central the Eagles tied the Bengals and lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Carson Wentz has struggled in the passing game all year, and Cleveland has limited 3 of the last 4 opponents to 153, 148 and 101 yards through the air. Cleveland has the much better run game and they take much better care of the football. The Browns loses this year have come against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Oakland. Three of the top teams in the NFL. Against the NFC East they have won by 14 over Washington and 11 over Dallas. The Eagles simply don’t have the talent this year to compete on the road against a healthy Browns squad. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-18-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +7 | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
312 Toledo at Eastern Michigan The Eagles have played Toledo virtually equal the past three seasons, despite playing two of those games on the road. In 2017 as a 13.5 point underdog Eastern lost by only five points. In 2018 Eastern won outright 28-26 as a 1.5 point underdog. Last year at Toledo the game went to overtime in a 37-34 loss as a 3.5 point underdog. In fact, the Eagles have covered each of the past four years. This despite the Rockets winning nine more games than the Eagles overall during that timeframe. Â Eastern Michigan is a tremendous underdog under Chris Creighton. Posting a 24-4-1 record when catching points the last 4+ seasons. With the Eagles coming in 0-2, we look for this to be a circled game for the host. The Rockets are only 3-9 straight up on the road as of late, including a last second loss at Western Michigan a week ago. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
275 Minnesota at Chicago It’s not been reported too much nationally, but the Vikings lead the league in passing yards per play, and overall yards per play offensively. As well as 5.46 ypp running the football which also leads the NFL. So we not only have the most proficient offense overall in yardage, but the team is equally good running and passing. Defensively the Vikings rank 30th overall in defensive yards permitted per game. The Bears have reassigned the play calling duties, and are going to play faster offensively. That should allow this offense to compete with the Minnesota scoring unit. This is an extremely low total considering league average right now is around 51 points. PLAY OVER |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -13.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
179 Nevada & New Mexico in Las Vegas This game has been moved to Las Vegas because of the high cover counts in New Mexico. The Wolf Pack have looked impressive out of the gate with Impressive wins over Wyoming, UNLV and Utah State. They outgained the opposition in those contests by a total of 616 yards. The passing game has produced 420, 350 and 421 yards. Over the past five seasons Nevada has faced New Mexico three times. Covering by margins of 7 1/2, 6 and 13 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack just played in this building two weeks ago, which should be a sizable advantage. Head Coach Jay Norvell is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite. New Mexico has posted a combined record of 8-30 straight up the past three plus seasons. With this game being moved, this will be the third of five straight games away from Albuquerque. The Lobos pass defense has been horrendous thus far, allowing 891 passing yards in two games. The opposition is completing 73.1% of its passes. With Nevada QB Carson Strong coming in with a 9 to 0 TD to INT ratio, as well as an outstanding 171.7 quarterback rating. This looks like a long night for this Lobos stop unit. PLAY NEVADA |
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11-14-20 | Louisville +3 v. Virginia | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -107 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
225 Louisville at Virginia This is the rescheduled game from a week ago which was postponed because of covid. Two weeks ago the Cardinals had nine players sit out the Virginia Tech game because of the virus, but the entire team has tested negative heading into this week. The Cardinals fought hard in a 42-35 loss to the Hokies, and are really looking forward to getting back on the field. Louisville has won f of the last 5 meetings in this series, including an outright underdog victory a year ago. Despite the 2-5 record coming into this game, having an extra week to prepare should really help Scott Satterfield in his second season. There is only one team in this matchup with big play ability, and that’s the Cardinals. In seven games the offense has produced 45 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing just 31. Virginia on the other hand in six games have produced just 19 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing a whopping 44. While Louisville enters this contest off a loss, the Cavaliers pulled a major upset of North Carolina last time out. That despite allowing 443 yards through the air to the Tar Heels. In the Virginia victories this season the Cavaliers have a +5 turnover advantage. Without the turnover edge this team has yet to taste victory. With Louisville dominating recent play, off a loss, and having a huge explosive play advantage, we will back the visitor. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 136 h 50 m | Show |
142 TCU at West Virginia The Horned Frogs need to run the football to be effective. They are averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The passing game has struggled all year including managing just 73 yards last week hosting Texas Tech. Unfortunately they are going up against a West Virginia defense allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are even better against the pass, holding every team to 230 yards or less. Including 6 of 7 opponents to less than 190 yards. West Virginia is undefeated at home this season. They have covered by margins of 16 1/2, 23 1/2, 6 and 17 1/2 the last four years against TCU. The Mountaineers have the more complete offense and the better defense. This is always a tough place to play, especially for TCU who have been outscored the last two visits here by a combined score of 81-20. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-14-20 | Indiana v. Michigan State +7 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -104 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
164 Indiana at Michigan State The Hoosiers are now highly ranked after its blowout victory over Michigan. Now a perfect 3-0 on the young season. But when breaking down the Indiana games we see that they are being outgained per play 5.28 yards to 4.71 yards. The three teams they have beaten are a combined 2-4 straight up when not facing Indiana. When looking at turnover rates we see Indiana at +6 while Michigan State is -7. Regressing works in the favor of the home dog here. Both teams played Rutgers and Michigan. Indiana won both games with a combined yardage advantage of 199. Michigan State split with a yardage advantage of 90. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 games between these two clubs. Indiana also has a major lookahead with a trip to Ohio State on deck. We are not buying into the Hoosier hype. Take the points with the Spartans. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 61 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ball State Putting this one up a bit late as we wanted to verify the weather. Looks like 41 degrees and clear with no chance of rain and only 7 mph winds. In other words good weather for an over bet. The last four meetings have shown point totals of 52, 62, 70 and 89 points, as this has been a high scoring series. Both offenses are stout, and can strike in a big way through the passing game. We have serious questions about these two stop units however. Each team allowed 30 points per game last year in MAC play, and neither team has addressed that side of the ball enough in the offseason. The Eagles didn’t have much of a run game last year, and produced just 1.9 ypr in the opener against Kent State. The only way Eastern can match Ball State offensively is to throw the ball, which lengthens the game. Look for this one to be a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia +7 v. Texas | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 137 h 25 m | Show |
377 West Virginia at Texas The Mountaineers have won 3 of the last 5 meetings including two straight in Texas, both in the underdog role. Coming into this contest 0-2 on the road this season, makes sure Neal Brown and the coaching staff will have this team ready. QB Jarret Doege has an impressive 11 to 3 TD to INT ratio, and the running game has been solid. Defensively West Virginia is allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, and have 9 interceptions to 7 touchdowns allowed. Texas beat Oklahoma State a week ago, but only had a 3% chance of victory at the end of the game. In other words they were very lucky. Getting outgained 530 to 287 in yardage. The Longhorns took advantage of a +4 turnover edge. Texas has only produced one passing game of over 290 yards on the season, that was the opener against UTEP. Without having success through the air we see no way this host gets past this number. Keep in mind Texas is 6-11 ATS as a home favorite under Tom Herman. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-04-20 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -22 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
292 Bowling Green at Toledo How bad has it been for the Falcons to keep a talented quarterback? James Morgan transferred to FIU, Jarret Doege is now the starter at West Virginia, and last years QB Grant Loy is sitting the bench for Auburn. Junior Matt McDonald will be the signal caller this year after throwing eight passes the last two seasons at Boston College. The two deep chart features nine true freshmen and seven redshirt freshmen. Bowling Green had three victories a year ago. Beating FCS entrant Morgan State, Winless Akron, and a 20-7 upset win over these Rockets. Last year was the first time in over a decade the Rockets didn’t have a winning record. Toledo started the year losing to a solid Kentucky team, then reeled off four straight victories before the BG upset loss. That game completely turned around the Toledo season, so we know Jason Candle has circled this game for the hosts. The Rockets return 14 starters and have a much more veteran team than the Falcons. This should get ugly. PLAY TOLEDO |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-6 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 19 m | Show |
260 Las Vegas at Cleveland The key to slowing down this Browns offense is to put pressure on Baker Mayfield. Cleveland has beaten every team not excelling in defensive sacks per pass attempt. The two Cleveland losses were to the Steelers and Ravens. That's the 1st and 4th ranked in that defensive category. The Raiders rank 25th in the league. When facing teams not ranked in the top four, Cleveland has scored 35, 34, 49, 32 and 37 points. Lay the number with the Browns in what looks to be a big offensive game for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-31-20 | Charlotte +10 v. Duke | Top | 19-53 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
125 Charlotte at Duke Big game for Will Healy and the 49ers who get the rare opportunity of taking on in-state rival Duke. QB Chris Reynolds had an excellent QB rating a year ago at 153.6, and he’s picked right back up this year. Duke has shot themselves in the foot all season when it comes to turnovers. Losing 10 of 13 fumbles and throwing 12 interceptions to only 6 touchdowns. The team passer rating is only 106.68 on the year. Chase Brice, the Clemson transfer has been a major disappointment. Charlotte takes care of the football with only three turnovers on the season. Can’t see the Blue Devils getting right against this well coached veteran Charlotte team. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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10-31-20 | Rice +1.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
155 Rice at Southern Miss Rice showed a great deal of heart in losing to Middle Tennessee State in overtime a week ago. It was the first game action of the season for the Owls, who started slowly as expected. But after adjusting to the game speed it was clear Rice was the better team. Now after the quadruple doink field goal miss, we expect the Owls to bounce back big time on Saturday. Southern Miss is down to its third head coach this season. As Scotty Walden took a step down in our opinion to take the Austin Peay job. If your interim coach would bale in the middle of a season, what does that tell you about this job. Enough said, go Owls! PLAY RICE |
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10-25-20 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
461 Carolina at New Orleans Who has the better offense in this game? If you said the Saints you may want to step back and look at the numbers. New Orleans ranks 14th in passing yards per play and 22nd in rushing yards per play. And it gets even worse for the Saints as they are missing key members of this offense this week. Carolina by the way comes in at 8th and 19th respectively. With the Panthers defense ranking 2nd in passing yards per play allowed at 5.94, we have a clear play on the touchdown underdog. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-24-20 | Cincinnati +2.5 v. SMU | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
347 Cincinnati at SMU Big three weeks for the Bearcats who play the Mustangs, Memphis and Houston. Luke Fickell has done a terrific job here off back to back 11 win seasons. This defense allowed 20.6 points per game a year ago and brought back nine starters. After three games Cincinnati has intercepted 7 passes while allowing exactly zero passing touchdowns. SMU and former Texas standout Shane Buechele lead a strong passing game for the Mustangs. But this team hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near as good as the Bearcats. Cincinnati is currently ranked in the Top 10. In Sonny Dykes career his teams are 0-7 SU vs Top 10 and 4-17 SU vs Top 25 opposition. We will back the Bearcats here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-24-20 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 3 m | Show |
339 Rutgers at Michigan State What does it say about this Michigan State program that it replaced a legend in Mark Dantonio, with Mel Tucker who went 5-7 in his only head coaching job a year ago at Colorado. The same 5-7 record the Buffaloes had in each of the two prior seasons. The Spartans averaged only 22 points per game in 2019, and still haven’t announced who the starting quarterback is. Defensively Michigan State only brings back three starters, so questions abound all over this roster. Greg Schiano is back in his familiar territory of New Brunswick. He started here in 2001 and left after the 2011 season. He has a winning record with the Knights, 68-67 in his previous tenure. That’s enough to celebrate his return to New Jersey. The Scarlet Knights added some big transfers including QN Noah Vedral from Nebraska. Overall 16 starters return to what looks to be a far more physical squad. Rutgers is also looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout in its final home game of 2019. Money has come in on Rutgers since the opener, and that’s smart money. Nobody but pros would step in to back a 3-21 football team the past two seasons. We agree with the move as Schiano has proven himself to be a quality college football head coach, something this state hasn’t seen since he left close to a decade ago. PLAY RUTGERS |
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10-18-20 | Rams -3 v. 49ers | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 2 m | Show |
273 Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco The Rams rank 1st in the NFL in average yards per pass attempt at 8.68, the 49ers 23rd at 6.68. That means every time one of these quarterbacks go back for a pass the Rams have a 2 yard advantage offensively. The Rams also lead the NFL allowing just 5.56 ypp, while the Niners sit 13th at 6.74. So the passing advantage is huge for the visitor. LA also is 2nd in defensive sacks per attempt. The 49ers are getting healthier but the Rams are still better in the trenches. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-18-20 | Falcons v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 40-23 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
256 Atlanta at Minnesota The Texans had success last week after firing it's head coach in the middle of the season. But that's a rarity when it comes to covering the spread. Atlanta cleaned house after losing on Sunday, but this team has more problems than the head coach and GM. The Falcons defense continues to struggle against teams it should be able to beat. Blowing leads has been the norm, and this club is now 0-5 on the season. With a veteran team we can only see things getting worse. Minnesota has played better as of late and they almost pulled off the upset at Seattle on Sunday. This team continues to play with heart, something we just haven't seen from the Falcons. Grab this play now before the line rises. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-18-20 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 37 m | Show |
257 Houston at Tennessee Despite the current records we feel the Texans to have the better roster. And now without a Head Coach/GM that held them back, there is plenty of value on the visitor. The Texans rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per play, Tennessee 14th. Houston also runs the ball better than the Titans, 4.15 ypr to 3.87. Defensively Tennessee does have a slight edge defending the pass, 15th to 17th. But once again Houston’s defense against the run is better, 25th to 32nd and dead last for Tennessee. The Titans allow 5.49 yards per rush, which is higher than the LA Rams allow per pass! With home field advantage being lower than ever, we will back the better team catching points. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-17-20 | Marshall v. Louisiana Tech +13.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
162 Marshall at Louisiana Tech We’ve been a big believer in the Thundering Herd this year, as Doc Holliday continues to be one of the best coaches in the college ranks. That said, this team is really being priced high here against a quality Bulldogs squad. Over the last decade the Herd is only 11-19-2 ATS as a road favorite, and haven’t posted a winning mark in that regard since 2015. Tech is coming in off a ten win season in 2019, and Skip Holtz has a history of rewarding backers in the underdog role. The Bulldogs struggled against UTEP last week, but this Miners team is much better than any other squad Dana Dimel has coached in El Paso. Since 2014 Louisiana Tech is 28-8 straight up at home. Throw in the fact that this team was embarrassed by Marshall last year 31-10, and we have a terrific revenge situation. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
475 Minnesota at Seattle The Vikings defense has been a sieve this year, but the Seahawks have been just as bad. Minnesota ranks 31st in defensive passing yards per play, but they have stopped the run at the tenth best rate in the league. Seattle also excels in stopping the run, but ranks 28th defending the pass. The Seahawks are first in offensive passing yards per play, and 11th in rushing yards per play. Minnesota has been even more balanced offensively at 5th and 3rd respectively. Other than New Orleans the Seahawks suffer the loss of home field advantage more than any other team without all fans. Throw in the fact that Seattle tends to play to the competition, and we find value on the Vikings catching this key number. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars +3 v. Bengals | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -100 | 144 h 49 m | Show |
257 Jacksonville at Cincinnati Money is coming in on the host here so we should be able to get a better number later in the week. Cincinnati has been a team that finds a way to cover as an underdog, with 3-0 or 2-0-1 ATS on the season. But now the Bengals are being installed as a favorite, and we want nothing to do with this club laying points. The public perception is that this club is a hard trying team with a future star at quarterback. And that’s true, but this offensive line is currently terrible. With 32 teams in the league the Bengals rank 31st in rushing yards per play and 31st in passing yards per play. Cincinnati is 29th in sacks per pass attempt. While we love the future of Burrow, he just doesn’t have enough protection to lift up this ailing offense. Nobody expected anything from this Jacksonville team coming into the season. But this is a team that has outgained the opposition each of the last two weeks, and the opening week win over Indianapolis is looking even more impressive now. With extra time to prepare after losing to the Dolphins last Thursday, we will look for a big bounce back from the visitor. The Jags are 7th in rushing yards per play while the Bengals defense ranks 26th in stepping the run. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -103 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
465 Houston at Pittsburgh Texans enter this contest after playing the toughest schedule in the history of the NFL the past two weeks. Kansas City and Baltimore are at least 3 points better than any other team in the league. Despite being outscored 67 to 36 in those contests, there are some positives for Houston. The Texans lost the turnover battles in both games, -3 on the season. That is likely to regress when facing lower rated opposition. When looking at the all important yards per play category, Houston is holding its own. Baltimore beat Houston 6.7 YPP to 5.7 YPP. But the Texans beat the Chiefs 6.7 YPP to 5.6 YPP. Teams that start the season 0-2 lose favor in the minds of the bettors, we take advantage of that here. As opposed to the schedule Houston played, Pittsburgh faced two of the worst teams in the league, the Giants and Broncos. Despite having the better talent the Steelers struggled to put away the opposition, barely beating the Broncos with a back up quarterback last week. With home field advantage being worth less than ever, the Texans are a live dog here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-20-20 | Vikings v. Colts -3 | Top | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 144 h 47 m | Show |
274 Minnesota at Indianapolis Heading into the opening week this is one game we had circled and we bet the lookahead line. Despite the Colts losing to the lowly Jags we like this game even better now. We graded the Colts five points higher than the Vikings comming into the season, and that may be a bit conservative. The Colts simply dominated Jacksonville Sunday in just about every category you look at, except turnovers. Indy was -2 in the turnover department despite winning yardage by 204. Keep in mind the Colts never punted in the entire game. Minnesota lost by nine points at home to a team expected to regress badly this year. The Vikings lost the yardage battle by 140. We know this line is going to rise and getting it on the right side of three is a bonus. Wouldn't surprise if we saw the same type of line movement which led to our early release last week. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
07 Wake Forest at North Carolina State Wake fared about as well as expected by facing Clemson out of the gate. This is a team really dropping down in opposition, with a game already under its belt. The Demon Deacons are running one of the fastest offenses in college football. We expect this team to have a great deal of success against a team not used to that type of pace. NC State has been dealing with Covid 19, so its been tough getting players on the field together. In what we expect to be a high scoring game we will back the visitor. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -104 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
102 Cincinnati at Cleveland Mixed thoughts surrounding the debut of Joe Burrow. He only had a passer rating of 54 and the offensive line continued to have problems. He didn’t have a single August practice that had his full slate of receivers healthy. Those timing issues are especially needed when traveling on a short week where there is no time to work out the problems. The Browns played the Ravens much closer than the final score, but mistakes plagued the team all afternoon. Cleveland lost the yardage battle 377-306, but really struggled in key downs going 3 of 15 on third and fourth, while the Ravens went 6 of 11. The Browns also lost the turnover battle 3 to 1. So while the Bengals looked competitive in the opener, the Browns were much better than the final score. This Cleveland team is loaded, and with a chip on its shoulder we expect the best of the Browns here. Year after year the home team in these Thursday games have dominated. With what happed last week we really like Cleveland here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
477 Dallas at Los Angeles Rams Last year these two clubs finished in the top three in pace of play. Word out of LA is that this is also a very fast field, great for breakaway speed. These offenses are very talented and we have questions about both defenses, which are banged up at key positions. With the game on the key number of 51 and this being a nationally televised night game. This total has nowhere to go but up. PLAY OVER |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 143 h 45 m | Show |
464 Philadelphia at Washington Can’t trust the Eagles in the road favorite role. Week one divisional dogs are on a 21-5-1 run, and teams not making the playoffs the previous season have been golden when up against a playoff participant. Washington has quality players, it’s been the organization that has been the drawback. With the promise to change the name we feel the management is now starting to join the 21st century. The Eagles have major injuries coming into this game with Jeffrey, Wentz, Reagor and Sanders being banged up. The defense has many question marks as well with Avery, Maddox, Effs, Hargrave and Barnett not being 100%. Touch to lay this type of number on the road to a team very familiar. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-13-20 | Colts -8 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 27 m | Show |
467 Indianapolis at Jacksonville This Colts team is simply loaded. It’s likely the best offensive line in the NFL. Rivers has never had protection like he will have this season. This is going to be an explosive offense and the defense is likely top ten as well. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league, and has already made moves to get its franchise quarterback of the future. The Jags normally have very little home advantage, so that likely won’t change much if not at all this season. Getting this one out now as we expect this line to rise. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -22.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show |
396 Syracuse at North Carolina Don’t think much of this Syracuse team who has won five or less games 5 of the last 6 years. After a breakout 2018 in which the Orangemen won ten games, the team dropped to a 5-7 record last year. The players sat out practices because of the COVID, and really look like a team just going through the motions right now. This was an experienced team a year ago, no so in 2020. They hired a new defensive coordinator who is installing a 3-3-5 defense. Tough to make those type of changes and have to face an NFL caliber quarterback right out of the gate. North Carolina is a team on the rise under second year coach Mack Brown. I had originally hated the signing as I felt the game had passed him by. I’m big enough to admit my mistakes, and that was a big one. As the Tar Heels went from winning two games in 2018 to seven last year. QB Sam Howell was dominant last year and really put his name out there for those looking from the next level. North Carolina finished the year scoring 41 and 56 points, we expect a huge offensive season from this team. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show |
118 Pittsburgh at Baltimore If these two teams were both playing its starters we would have made the Ravens likely a nine point favorite. But yet because of the must win factor the Steelers are a two point favorite. That’s a conservative 11 point swing because the Ravens are resting some starters. That’s a huge overreaction. Pittsburgh is playing with a third string quarterback that has really struggled as of late. Baltimore on the other hand has a backup veteran behind center, in an offense that should let him play to his best abilities. This is a heated rivalry and you know the Ravens players would love to knock the Steelers out of an playoff possibilities. It’s also a huge coaching mismatch in favor of the home underdog. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3 | Top | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
466 NY Jets at Cincinnati From a game grade standpoint the Bengals should be very slight favorites here. The Jets are feeling fat and happy with a three game winning streak and a blowout of the Oakland Raiders. But with winless Cincinnati and the Dolphins on deck, excuse us if we don’t trust New York here. Cincinnati has been competitive the past two weeks with losses by 6 and 7 points. With the remaining schedule the best chance for a win after today will be at Miami in week 16. Cincinnati is 0-6 on the season in games decided by one possession. These teams are much closer in talent than the records suggest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-30-19 | Ohio State -8 v. Michigan | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
367 Ohio State at Michigan Surprised by the money coming in on the host. Just a week ago the look ahead number in this contest was 13 1/2. Ohio State beat Penn State by 11 points and 190 yards despite a -2 turnover disadvantage. Now the line is about five points shorter. Neither team will have much success running the football, as both allow less than 3 yards per carry. Which brings us to the passing game where the Buckeyes have a huge edge. Fields has a 33 to 1 td to int ratio and a 190.3 passer rating. Patterson is 21 to 5 with a 149.6 passer rating. From an average game score rating Ohio State is 123.8 and Michigan is 106.4. Only once all season have the Wolverines reached the average Buckeye game score, and that was in the 45-14 victory over Notre Dame. In order to be competitive here the Wolverines would likely have to play its best game of the season, against a program that has dominated them. We don’t see that happening as we expect Ohio State to win going away. PLAY OHIO STATE |
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11-29-19 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 45 m | Show |
321 Texas Tech at Texas Final game of the season for the Red Raiders who won’t be going bowling. Despite losing five of its six games down the stretch, Texas Tech has scored the same amount of points as it allowed. The losses came by margins of 3, 2, 3, 10 and 3 points. The Red Raiders on the season are 0-4 in one score games. This is a one-sided rivalry and Texas Tech will treat this like its bowl game. The Longhorns have already qualified for a bowl with six wins. But this has to be looked at as a disappointing season in Austin. A win over Texas Tech won’t change that. Hard to see this team getting up for this contest after being non-competitive last week against Baylor. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 37 m | Show |
272 Green Bay at San Francisco This number is really cheap based on the season to date outputs of both these squads. Looking at average game scores the Packers are 84.4 while the 49ers are 88.4. That would make San Francisco a significant favorite on a neutral. Add in home field advantage and we clearly see this line should be much closer to a 6. This is the third road game in four contests for the Packers, but Green Bay was off a bye week. San Francisco on the other hand will be at home for the third straight week. The next two games for the Niners are really tough with road games at Baltimore and New Orleans. While this is not a must win game for the host, it’s about as important as a game could be considering the remainder of the San Francisco schedule. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | Top | 39-14 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 47 m | Show |
122 Michigan at Indiana The Wolverines have finally put it all together and are playing like many thought this team would before the season. Winning 6 of 7 including a blow out victory over Notre Dame. But this is a terrible sandwich spot after knocking off Michigan State and having Ohio State on deck. Michigan has owned Indiana in football for decades, as this sets up as a huge letdown situation. Indiana hasn’t beaten Michigan, but the last four years have been very competitive. The Hoosiers have cashed each of those games by a combined 38 1/2 points. This is the best Indiana football team in a really long time. It’s the first team that is going to finish with a winning record since 2007. The Hoosiers are undefeated at home with the only losses on the road at Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State. This one goes down to the wire. PLAY INDIANA |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 32 m | Show |
470 New England at Philadelphia Many will want to back the Patriots off a loss followed by a bye week. Belichick has been solid off losses in his career, but this isn’t the same New England team that we have seen in the past. Besides the last three seasons the Pats are 0-3 ATS off the bye week, including a 1-2 SU record. The Pats have a solid lead in the division and play the next two games against non-conference foes. Those are the lowest priority games on the schedule. The Pats are permitting 4.7 ypc on the season, against a schedule that is extremely weak. Only Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Baltimore have winning records. New England is +17 turnovers on the year, the major reason why this team has a gaudy record. Philadelphia is getting healthier, and with the divisional race with the Cowboys, this game is much more important for the host. The Eagles should be able to run all over this Pats defense. And coming off a bye we know Philadelphia has had this game circled. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-16-19 | Texas v. Iowa State -6.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -112 | 125 h 4 m | Show |
378 Texas at Iowa State Triple revenge game for the Cyclones who took Oklahoma to the wire last week in a confidence building loss. With only Kansas on deck we look for this Iowa State team to win going away. This club has produced game scores of 100 or higher in 7 of its last 8 games. Much more impressive than its 5-4 record on the season. After three of four weeks on the road it will be nice to get back home here. As opposed to Iowa State, Texas has produced a game score of 100+ just once the past six games. That was last week hosting Kansas State. With a 6-3 record many would assume this line to be too high, but we firmly disagree. Texas has not been impressive this season as we expected, but have been very fortunate to fall on the right side of coin flip games. The Longhorns are 3-0 in games decided by six points or less. Iowa State on the other hand is 1-3 in games of six points or less. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-10-19 | Bills +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 31 m | Show |
253 Buffalo at Cleveland The Buffalo Bills have played one game away from home in the past seven weeks, a road game at Tennessee. The Bills have lowly Miami on deck, a team coming off its first and possibly only win of the season. Most teams rise up after a week of off field controversy, but not the Browns. This team is so dysfunctional it has raised the stakes to a whole new level. We want no part of this club right now, and are surprised the team has been made the favorite here. To make matters worse the Browns have a short week ahead before clashing with hated rival Pittsburgh on Thursday. Wrong team favored in this one. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-09-19 | San Jose State +8 v. Hawaii | Top | 40-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
199 San Jose State at Hawaii The Spartan passing game has produced 400 or more yards in 3 of its last 5 games. Only the defense of San Diego State held the Spartans to less than 310 yards during this streak. Hawaii hasn’t faced many good passing attacks this season. And the Warriors have had a very hard time with turnovers, with a -12 margin on the year. San Diego State is at +12 on the season, and once again likely to win the turnover battle here. Give us a team likely to win turnovers, that is a live dog in the passing game, and we are catching more than a touchdown. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 50 m | Show |
474 New England at Pittsburgh It’s clear how Bill Belichick wants to win with this team. Dominate defensively and play conservatively with the offense. That’s one reason why the Patriots are +17 in turnover margin. While many will look at how the Patriots allow 4.6 yards per carry defensively, keep in mind New England is happy to allow the opposition to run the ball because of having early leads. Baltimore runs the ball well but Lamar Jackson only has a 94.1 quarterback rating. New England hasn’t shown the passing attack to stretch the field against these Ravens. We look for a conservative game plan with this being a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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11-02-19 | Buffalo v. Eastern Michigan -1 | Top | 43-14 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 20 m | Show |
336 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan The Bulls have struggled on the road this year with the only victory coming at Akron 21-0, what could be the worst team in the FBS. The last two games Buffalo has a +7 turnover margin but only outgained the opposition by a combined 89 yards. So while the final scores looked impressive, a great deal of luck was included. Buffalo is now 6-18-1 as a conference road underdog the last decade plus. Eastern Michigan has only played at home three times this season. This is the only home game for the Eagles in a four week span. Keep in mind the last time on this field the Eagles beat Western Michigan, the clear best team in the conference 34-27, outgaining the Broncos by 188 total yards. Chris Creighton is 22-15-2 ATS off a loss in his six years in Ypsilanti. We look for a solid victory for the host on Saturday. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills -2 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 13 m | Show |
262 Philadelphia at Buffalo The Eagles only wins have come against 1 win Washington, 1 win NY Jets and the Packers in a game it lost the yardage battle by 155. This team simply cannot protect the quarterback as Wentz just doesn’t have time to look downfield. That makes it easy on this Buffalo defense who can flood the box. Buffalo’s only loss on the season was to undefeated New England in a game it outgained the Pats by 151 yards. That looks really impressive now based on what the Pats have done this season. If Philadelphia can’t be competitive last week against Dallas, how can we expect this offense to move the ball on Buffalo. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
208 Notre Dame at Michigan Notre Dame at Michigan From a game score perspective the Irish are 4 points better than Michigan, but that includes the first three games of the season for the Wolverines. Since that time Michigan is 3 points better than the Irish as this team has stayed under the national radar. After starting the year poorly it looks as if most bettors have ignored the Michigan improvement. Brian Kelly is 8-4 ATS off a bye, so the Irish should be fully prepared here. But based on the Irish success we feel Notre Dame is getting too much credit in the betting markets. This is the only home game in a month span for the Wolverines, and its a rare night game. That in itself should ensure a crazy packed atmosphere for the host. Keep in mind Michigan is 28-4 SU under Harbaugh at home. With the line movement towards the visitor, we have great value on the Wolverines. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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10-26-19 | Texas v. TCU +105 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 105 | 97 h 29 m | Show |
188 Texas at TCU The last five years TCU has outscored Texas by a combined margin of 169-64. The only victory for the Longhorns came last year in a 31-16 home victory. This is just the third true road game for Texas who survived at home last week over Kansas 50-48. This was a team we circled as overvalued coming into the season, and the results are starting to show. The only team the Longhorns have outgained by 70 or more yards this season was Rice. The last four games Texas has allowed 48, 34, 31 and 30 points, with just one of those games being played at a rival site. On the season Texas runs for 4.5 ypc and is allowing 4.6 ypc. TCU on the other hand controls the line of scrimmage with 5.3 yards per carry while allowing just 3.1 ypc. The Horned Frogs have outgained everyone on the schedule with the exception of a road game at Iowa State. The Kansas team that Texas just struggled with, TCU had a 466 yard advantage on. We look to back one of the best coaches in College Football here playing in revenge. PLAY TCU |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
473 Philadelphia at Dallas Second of three straight road games for the Eagles off a loss at Minnesota. While Philadelphia slowly gets healthy the Cowboys are suffering several key injuries including two offensive linemen and its best receiver. Without a healthy Amari Cooper this passing game has been a disaster. Dallas started the season on fire as the new offensive coordinator looked like a huge upgrade. But this imaginative offense early on has become increasingly stagnant. What looked like impressive wins over the Giants, Redskins and Miami, now look much worse as those teams are among the worst in the league. The Cowboys are 18-30 ATS as a home favorite under Jason Garrett. The Eagles have a huge coaching edge here and are playing with triple revenge in this contest. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -102 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
452 Arizona at New York Giants The Cardinals offense still hasn’t performed as expected by the new coaching staff. Despite getting a returning player in the defensive backfield we just don’t believe in this Arizona stop unit. New York has extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday. With several key players returning for the Giants this line surprises us. We were expecting something a couple points higher. Maybe playing Cincinnati and Atlanta, as opposed to Minnesota and New England has the betting markets fooled. We will take advantage of that and back the better team at home with extra rest. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts -1 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
454 Houston at Indianapolis The Texans sure have a lot of new backers after edging the Chiefs last week. But we are not one of them. This is still a team that struggles to protect the quarterback. And Frank Reich and company have really been able to get to DeShaun Watson. This is the second straight road game for Houston, who have just one winning road season under Bill O’Brien. The Colts are on a bye week after beating the Chiefs themselves in a more impressive game just two weeks ago. Indy is 7-3 SU at home under Reich and matches up well with the Texans. Indy is 3-1 the past two seasons against Houston despite only having a combined 11-17 record against the rest of the league. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 54 m | Show |
390 Baylor at Oklahoma State We really liked the Baylor Bears coming into the season and they sure haven’t disappointed with a perfect 6-0 record. But the Bears are now playing for the fifth straight week, with four of those contests being decided by one score. The Bears have been on the right side of the coin flip games, which can’t go on forever. The last three weeks Baylor has beaten Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech by a combined 106 yards. It was a +4 turnover margin that turned those games toward the Bears. From a game score level the Cowboys are 1.2 points better than the Bears. We also show that Oklahoma State has played the much tougher schedule, a full six points per game tougher. The host is also coming off a bye which gives them a full week head start on preparations. This line has risen by a point at this writing, and it’s still showing plenty of value. As much as we like Baylor, the Bears will suffer its first loss of the season Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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10-19-19 | Duke v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 125 h 51 m | Show |
318 Duke at Virginia We went against the Wahoos last week with success as Virginia came up short against Miami Florida on Friday. But now we look to back Virginia with an extra day of prep. The Cavaliers have beaten Duke each of the last four seasons by margins of 14, 7, 14 and 8 points. And Virginia’s best defensive player was declared out for the season on a special teams play last week. That should be a rallying point for the host, as teams really come together the following game after losing a leader. These two teams have played exactly equal schedules based on our numbers. Yet Duke is only outgaining the opposition by 0.14 yards per play, while Virginia is up 0.72 yards per play. The current numbers assumes these two clubs are equal, but our numbers show Virginia to be the correct side. On a two game losing streak we expect Virginia to turn its season around here, as it continues to dominate the Blue Devils. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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10-19-19 | Central Michigan v. Bowling Green +12 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 36 m | Show |
336 Central Michigan at Bowling Green Going off of game scores we can see the reason why the Chippewas as a double digit favorite here. Central is averaging a game score of 82.6 while the Falcons are at 67.0. But a closer look at the schedules played shows that Bowling Green has faced six point tougher FBS opponents. Despite a 52-0 loss at Notre Dame there were some signs of improvement. Last week the team had its best week of practice on the season, and it manifested itself on the field with an impressive 20-7 win over Toledo. We watched that game and the dominance was real, as we recommended a second half play on Bowling Green for our Twitter followers. It cashed easily, and we feel we have a nice edge on the market again here. A major key in sports betting success is staying ahead of the betting public when it comes to changes on the field. Bowling Green has been bad for so long nobody wants to back them. That is why we can find added value in catching the improvement at the early stages. This will be the eighth straight week Central Michigan has had a game, with Buffalo and Northern Illinois on deck. Bowling Green is much fresher after having a bye before the Notre Dame contest. The biggest jump for a team is after a bye week with a first year coach. This team has looked totally different since putting in more plays in that bye week. The team is extremely excited after that Toledo victory last week, and we expect the new and improved Falcons to surprise once again this week. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
266 San Francisco at LA Rams All credit given to the Niners for beating the teams in front of them. But they have yet to face a quality quarterback. Tampa, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all have problems behind center. And while we feel Jared Goff is a bit overrated, his home/road dichotomy can’t be forgotten. He has been much better in his career playing at home. The Niners are 4-0 and a win here really puts them in the drivers seat in this division. So this becomes a must win game for the Rams. Los Angeles also has the advantage on ten days to prepare, while the Niners had to play Monday night. There has been a major overreaction regarding these teams based on its nationally televised games last week. We take advantage with a short number here. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 101 h 5 m | Show |
206 Wyoming at San Diego State The Cowboys have been very fortunate this year starting with its opening game victory hosting Missouri. Keep in mind Wyoming was +3 in turnovers and lost the yardage battle by 148 against the Tigers. In five games this season Wyoming has yet to lose the turnover battle and sits at a +8 on the season in that regard. The Cowboys have a season long first down deficit of 39 on the year. Which is amazing for a team with a 4-1 record. What all these numbers tell us is that this team could be the most lucky squad in the nation. San Diego State also sits at 4-1 on the year and by our numbers have played a one point easier schedule than Wyoming. The Aztecs have been just as fortunate with turnovers as the Cowboys, with a +9 advantage on the season. But unlike its opponent San Diego State has a +25 first down advantage, and have out gained all but one opponent. Losing the yardage by 3 to Utah State. Btw, Wyoming has lost the yardage battle in 4 of its 5 games. Our game grades show San Diego State to be over a touchdown better in this contest, and that number is on a neutral field. Wyoming’s strength is running the football at 5.64 yards per carry, but the Aztecs are a stout defense allowing only 1.79 ypc on the season. That will put the emphasis on Sean Chambers to throw the football, which isn’t a good thing if you are from Laramie. He is completing a terrible 38.6% of his throws and his QB rating is a minuscule 99.87. San Diego State has picked off twice as many balls as it has allowed touchdowns, 6 to 3. We expect a double digit win for the host here. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
204 Penn State at Iowa Penn State has played 4 of 5 games at home and It’s toughest opponent thus far has been Pitt. A game in which the Nittany Lions really struggled. We love the defense Penn State has shown, but feel the offense took advantage of bad defenses. This will be by far the toughest defense the Nittany Lions have faced this year. This is a rare night game at Kinnick Stadium. And off a game it should have won we like the situation for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has allowed 44 combined points in five FBS games, that less than 9 points per contest. Yet they are a home underdog in what is expected to be a low scoring game. They have a +54 first down advantage on the season, which is amazing. Sure Iowa doesn’t have offensive explosiveness, but the ability to move the chains keeps opposing offenses off the field. We think Penn State is a bit overrated right now, and the betting markets are down on Iowa after the Michigan loss. PLAY IOWA |
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10-12-19 | Old Dominion v. Marshall -14 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 131 h 36 m | Show |
144 Old Dominion at Marshall The Monarchs cost us the last two weeks and we have learned our lesson. The competitive games against Virginia Tech, Virginia and East Carolina, don’t look nearly as good in retrospect. Old Dominion continues to struggle to run the football, and the pass defense is permitting a 140 passer rating. The +3 turnover margin is masking the problems of a 1 to 6 offensive TD to INT ratio. This team has lost to Marshall by 20 points or more in 4 of the last 5 seasons. The Thundering Herd is coming off an embarrassing 24-13 loss to Middle Tennessee State. Marshall outgained the Blue Hens by 177 yards but lost the turnover battle by 4. Losses to Boise State and Cincinnati can be forgiven, but the way this team looked last week is problematic. The Marshall defensive weakness is against the pass, but the Monarchs don’t have a quality passing attack. Marshall won a combined 17 games the past two seasons and returned 14 starters from a year ago. We expect this to be a breakout game for the host. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-10-19 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State +3.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
106 Louisiana Monroe at Texas State The Warhawks enter this contest after falling at home to Memphis, while Texas State had a bye after two straight victories. Against FBS competition the visitor has played a 2 point tougher schedule. ULM has played twice on the road, a 45-44 loss at Florida State and a 72-20 defeat at Iowa State. What looked like an impressive result against the Seminoles, looks a bit different now. Florida State has been a major disappointment, and the +2 turnover margin and negative 82 yard deficit is more telling. ULM is 6-17 straight up on the road under Matt Viator. Jake Spavital is in his first season in San Marcos. After losing to Texas A&M, Wyoming and SMU, he talked about the team starting a new season. Those clubs are currently a combined 13-3. Since that point the Bobcats pounded a pretty good FCS squad in Nicholls State, and beat a 3-2 Georgia State team that upset Tennessee. With the extra week to prepare and our numbers showing the host as a slight favorite, we will gladly take the points with an underrated Bobcats squad. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
391 Michigan State at Ohio State In the last six years Michigan State has been an underdog to the Buckeyes five times. The Spartans won 2 of those 5 games in straight up fashion, as 5 and 14 point dogs. In another game it lost 17-16 while catching 21 1/2 points. Under Mark Dantonio the Spartans are 15-9 ATS as a road underdog. The last time his team was here it was pummeled 48-3, so you know this game has been circled. The Michigan State defense has held the opposition to 1.86 yards per carry. Which is extremely important as Ohio State is averaging 6.10 yards per rush. If the Spartans can slow down this Buckeye running game, Ohio State won’t be nearly as successful through the air. While the Michigan State offense hasn’t looked good overall this season, the team has only turned the ball over four times. The passing game has a 10 to 1 TD to INT ratio, which is also a key in this contest. The Buckeyes have looked terrific this year, but have feasted on poor defenses. That won’t be the case on Saturday. Ohio State is at its peak right now, and we step in with a ton of value on this defensive dog. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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10-05-19 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +3 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 50 m | Show |
384 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Don’t understand why the Hilltoppers are favored here. All of our numbers show the wrong team is the chalk. When looking at FBS opponents only the Monarchs have played a slightly tougher schedule. Despite that fact Old Dominion has been outgained by 23 yards per game, while Western is being outplayed by 25 yards per contest. On the season vs FBS competition Western Kentucky is even in turnovers, but have lost the first down battle by a combined 10. Old Dominion is +1 in turnovers and is +4 in first downs. The Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS as a road favorite under Tyson Helton. We are currently on a 15-1 College Football run with our only loss coming on these Monarchs last week against East Carolina. We return to the scene of the crime, as an overreaction has been made in the Western Kentucky victory over UAB. A team that lost the yardage battle by 76 but took advantage of a +3 turnover margin. Wrong team favored here. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-05-19 | Ohio v. Buffalo +3.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
372 Ohio U at Buffalo This line is built on preseason expectations much more than on the field results. While the Bobcats do have an extra week to prepare, we are not sure the extra time will change the team woes. These two teams have rotated victories since 2010. Last year Ohio pounded the Bulls 52-17. So based on history it’s the Buffalo year for a victory. Ohio has played a two point tougher FBS schedule thus far, but the numbers clearly point to the wrong team being favored here. Our numbers show Buffalo to have a three point higher game score on the season. A key to this game will be the Buffalo running game, combined with the lack of passing success for the Bobcats. Buffalo is out gaining it’s opponents on the ground 4.7 ypc to 2.8 ypc. While Ohio u is allowing 5.5 yards per carry themselves. The Bulls have struggled against the pass allowing a 156 passer rating and 12 touchdowns. But we have series concerns that Ohio can take advantage. The Bobcats only have a 130 passer rating with a 6 to 4 TD to INT ratio. According to recent history Buffalo gets the victory here, and the season stats back it up. PLAY BUFFALO |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
275 Dallas at New Orleans The Cowboys protect the quarterback better than any team in the league, allowing just 2% sacks per pass attempt. Much of that is because the Cowboys rank 4th in the league in yards per play rushing the football. This team leads the league in 3rd down percentage at 58% success. The Saints are in the lower half of the league offensively, at 21st in yards per game. They also score just 24 points per contest, with most of the success coming under Drew Brees. The Saints are 30th in defensive yards per play and 29th in passing yards allowed per game. This Saints defense will be in for a long day. PLAY DALLAS |
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09-29-19 | Redskins +3 v. Giants | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
255 Washington at NY Giants Washington has had a hard time running the football, but should find great success in the passing game. They rank 9th in the league in passing yards per game. The return game also is in the top 10 of the league. The defensive weakness is in 3rd down defense, but the Giants are without its best player at RB and is starting a rookie QB with just one game under his belt. The Giants lead the league in rushing yards per play, but that won’t be the strength without its star. This team ranks 31st defensively in stopping the run, and dead last in passing yards allowed per game. We see the Skins have a great deal of success through the air. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-28-19 | Colorado State +24.5 v. Utah State | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
193 Colorado State at Utah State The last three seasons the Rams have outscored the Aggies by a 15 point combined margin. This despite being a combined 26 point underdog. In FBS contests this year Colorado State is averaging 57 more offensive yards than Utah State. Defensively Utah State is 35 yards better. So the numbers are very close between the two. So it must be strength of schedule that is the big difference. Not so, as the Rams played Colorado on a neutral, at Arkansas and hosted Toledo. The Aggies played at Wake Forest and San Diego State. Our power ratings show that Utah State played a 2 point tougher FBS schedule. Not nearly enough evidence to have the Aggies in this price range. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 137 h 1 m | Show |
166 Kansas State at Oklahoma State The Wildcats are coming in off a bye after upsetting Mississippi State on the road. But while K State got the victory, it was out-gained by 83 yards. The Wildcats live and die off the running game, but this will be the best rush defense they have faced. As for stopping the run this team has permitted 4.74 yards per carry, against a weak overall slate. Oklahoma State has run the ball effectively this season. In three FBS games the Cowboys have produced 5.94 ypc. All three of those games were on the road. Oklahoma State is much better tested and has double revenge for losses by 19 and 5 points the past two seasons. This team is 9-2 ATS off a straight up loss the last three seasons. We look for a Cowboy rebound on Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-22-19 | Giants +6 v. Bucs | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show |
477 NY Giants at Tampa Bay Despite having Eli Manning behind center, the Giants have been very efficient offensively this season. But now the Giants have the ability to stretch the field with the quarterback change. There has been a divide between the players and management regarding who lined up behind center. Now that the change has been made, we look for this to be a rallying point game for the Giants players. The Bucs are a team we can make money on this season, but not as a sizable home favorite. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 7 m | Show |
466 Baltimore at Kansas City As much as we like this Baltimore Ravens team, this squad is taking a huge step up in competition this week. After facing Miami and Arizona, (the two lowest season win teams coming into the season), they now face the most successful offense in the league. We all know that offense is much more sticky than defense from season to season, and week to week. So we know the Chiefs will get plenty of points here. But we’re not so sure that Baltimore can match them. The alignments Andy Reid uses should work very well against this Ravens defense. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida v. Pittsburgh +12 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
320 Central Florida at Pittsburgh The Knights had their major show me game last week while hosting Stanford. While the team won by 18, we weren’t overly impressed. Stanford hasn’t looked good in any game this year, and the long trip to Florida certainly wasn’t the best of spots for the Cardinal. That game was sandwiched by two conference games with USC and Oregon. Pitt has played a much improved Virginia, the MAC favorite Ohio U and a very good Penn State squad. In those games the Panthers have outgained the opposition by a combined 229 yards. With just Delaware on deck we can see the host taking this one to the wire. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
349 Washington at BYU This is the first road game of the season for the Huskies, who are 17-9 straight up away under Chris Peterson. Washington pounded the Cougars 35-7 a year ago, and the talent levels haven’t changed much.  The records show that BYU is 2-1 on the season. But this team has been outgained and out first downed each and every week. The Cougars are being outgained on the ground by 1.16 yards per carry. Last week was the first time in four seasons under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered as a home dog. Now 1-4-1 catching points at home. We simply don’t trust the Cougars to keep this close. Washington has the much better athletes and a superior coaching staff. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-21-19 | UL-Monroe v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 20-72 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
312 Louisiana Monroe at Iowa State Many will point to how well the Warhawks played at Florida State last week. But the Seminoles have struggled mightily this season. Despite the 45-44 loss, ULM lost yardage by 82 and had a +2 turnover margin. Since 2015 when playing at a power five program the Warhawks have lost by 49, 38, 32, 28, 51, 42, 34 and 37 points. That was until last weeks contest at Florida State. On the other hand Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17, despite losing the turnover battle by 2. The Cyclones outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 total yards. After back to back tight contests, we expect the Cyclones to take out some frustrations here. Iowa State is allowing just 2.15 yards per carry. This defense will force ULM into many third and long situations. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -8 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
310 Air Force at Boise State Some money has come in on the Falcons, but we are not in agreement. Maybe it was a head fake trying to get this down to seven, but regardless we like the home favorite here. Second straight road game for Air Force who just knocked off Colorado on the road. While the Falcons got the victory, the game grade points out that they were fortunate with the win. Colorado is +7 on the season in turnovers, so we don’t rate the Buffaloes nearly as high as others. Air Force currently ranks 13th in the country in rushing at 6.04 yards per carry. But that was against two poor rush defenses. Boise State is permitting 3.54 yards per carry which ranks 50th. But they faced Florida State who averages 3.86 ypc, and Marshall who averages 5.99 yards per carry. Which illustrates just how good this Broncos rush defense has been. Unlike non conference opponents that face the option rarely, Boise State faces the Falcons every season. The last two years Boise has won by margins of 10 and 25 points. We expect another double digit home victory on Friday. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-07-19 | Stanford +3 v. USC | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
385 Stanford at USC Both teams will be without its starting quarterback this week, as both suffered injuries in last weeks games. While the drop-off is much more devastating for the Trojans. New Stanford starter Davis Mills was a highly recruited player, while USC’s signal caller was a 3* recruit who was fourth on the depth chart just a month ago. Stanford has won outright 4 of the last 6 meetings in this building, and the Cardinal have a huge coaching advantage. Stanford is 10-6-1 ATS as an underdog under David Shaw and 31-14 straight up on the road. USC is now 3-10 ATS as a home favorite the past 2+ years under Clay Helton. PLAY STANFORD |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
209 Louisiana Tech at Texas Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. His teams are on a 16-9 spread run against non-conference opponents. With Grambling State on deck you know his team will be all in to knock off a major conference heavyweight. For some reason Texas has gotten a great deal of hype in the offseason. For the life of us we can’t understand why. In the past five seasons the Longhorns have only had 13 players drafted, including two last year. Under Tom Herman Texas is 1-6 ATS as a double digit favorite. Herman’s role is that of an underdog. Last year they had nine of its 14 games decided by seven points or less. Texas is 3-7 as a home favorite under Herman and the team has a huge game hosting LSU on deck. This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +125 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -100 | 70 h 11 m | Show |
102 New England & Los Angeles Rams We were waiting for the +3 on the Rams, but it may not show. That’s fine as this will be graded on the LA Rams money line, as we feel the Rams win this one outright. If you are able to get +3 -110 yourself, we would recommend that as well. First off let’s take a look at the advantages the Patriots have over the Rams. Head Coach and Quarterback. There has been no better combination in the history of the NFL than Brady & Belichick. The Patriots have the vast experience in the Super Bowl, which should be a slight edge for the veterans. Other than those edges the Rams are more talented and faster in virtually every position on the field. In the big game last year the Eagles ran the ball all over the Pats, mostly from 11 personnel. It just so happens that the Rams run 11 personnel more than any other team in the league. That’s one running back and one tight end. And as with last year the Pats really struggle defending that alignment. Other than running straight up the middle New England allows a very high success rate on the ground. When the Patriots have the ball they are excellent at hitting running backs out of the backfield, and taking advantage of short slot plays across the middle. But those two spots are exactly where the Rams excel. Brady has real problems facing pressure up the middle, which is where the Rams pass rush attacks. Therefore the way for New England to succeed in the passing game is longer throws down the sidelines. And quite frankly New England doesn’t have the personnel to win in that regard. Brady is worse than league average throwing outside the hash marks, and the Pats don’t have enough wide receiver speed to get open. Every pro we have talked to had made this line roughly Los Angeles -1 before the line was released. In fact, the majority of bookmakers opened that exact line. The reason this line moved is that if you wanted to bet the Patriots you wanted to make sure you got it before it hit the key number of three. If you want to bet the Rams there is no reason to place a bet when the line continued to rise. That is why 80% of the bets and money have come in on the Patriots. All the Rams money is still out there waiting for the key number of three, and if it doesn’t show, those bettors will be happy to play what they rated as the favorite getting plus money. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS MONEY LINE Other ways we attacked this game: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser Los Angeles +8 1/2 Over 50 1/2 All props will be from the current lines at The Westgate Sports Book in Las Vegas in rotation order You should be able to do better shopping these numbers Props 10060 No safety -900 10084 No defensive or special teams touchdown -240 Neither team had a punt blocked this season Teams combined to allow just one return of any kind all season 10164 James White receiving yards Under 53 1/2 -110 10168 James White receptions Under 6 -130 10184 Julian Edelman receiving yards Under 82 1/2 -110 10305 Jared Goff pass completions Over 24 -110 10351 Todd Gurley receptions Over 3 1/2 +120 10354 CJ Anderson rushing yards Under 43.5 -110 10360 CJ Anderson score a touchdown No -180 10382 Brandin Cooks receiving yards Under 72 1/2 -110 10397 Josh Reynolds receptions Over 3 1/2 +110 10504 Jared Goff more completions +2 1/2-110 10536 Rams more first downs +1 1/2 -110 66016 No missed extra point -340 These two kickers combined for 84 of 86 extra points and 40 of 40 on field goals of 39 or less yards. Over/Under is 6.25 touchdowns 66020 Total quarterback sacks Under 3 1/2 +110 |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
314 New England at Kansas City This line is telling you that the Patriots are a better team on a neutral field. That just isn’t the case. The Patriots have had so much success in the playoffs because it plays in the weakest division in football over the past decade. The Pats get to beat up on weak teams and build a better record than its playoff foes. Brady and company have been great at Foxboro, but much less impressive on the road. Kansas City has one of the three highest home field advantages in the NFL. We grade the Chiefs at 4 points just for the location. Then adding in the home/road dichotomy of both these teams an Kansas City should be at least a 5 point favorite here. The Pats are older and slower on both sides of the line, it’s time to name a new AFC Champion. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
312 LA Rams at New Orleans Don’t understand why this line is so cheap. New Orleans has one of the top home field advantages in football along with Seattle and Kansas City. We rate the Saints at home to have a 4 point edge. Throw in the fact that the Saints have been undefeated at home in the playoffs with Brees under center. Along with Goff having major home/road splits, and you find value of at least 5 points on the host. It’s even a bit higher when you realize the Rams looked so good last week while the Saints underperformed the line. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
307 Philadelphia at New Orleans The Eagles are a completely different offense under Foles, and the team has responded to his leadership for the second year in a row. The Saints can be beaten deep and Foles has the talent around him to exploit the Saints weakness. New Orleans on the other hand should have a field day against this banged up Philadelphia secondary. The way the Eagles play defense sets up great for this offense, just like it did in the earlier meeting. With this game being played indoors we look for a shootout. PLAY New Orleans |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 45 m | Show |
302 Indianapolis at Kansas City Third straight must win road game for the Colts, who needed to make the playoffs in the final regular season game at Tennessee. This will be the Colts fourth road game in the last six weeks. Since the Colts first five games in which injuries derailed this club, the team has played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league. That’s dead last in the NFL since week six of the season. In fact, last week the Texans were majorly beat up at the receiver position. A week after playing the Texans without its starting quarterback. So while the numbers say this Indy defense is much improved, keep in mind the weak offenses the Colts have played. Andy Reid has been terrific with an extra week to prepare in his coaching history. Kansas City along with Seattle have the largest home field advantage in the NFL. The Chiefs have been at home all but two games since November 20th. This team has a major deep passing advantage against the Colts secondary. Kelce and Hill will have huge games this weekend as the Colts simply don’t have the team speed defensively in this matchup. Kansas City also has one of the best pass rushes Indy has faced all season. As good as the Colts have protected Luck, the opponents faced have mostly been weak at getting the pressure on the quarterback. Taking into account the home field value of the Chiefs, along with the buy week, this line is saying the Colts are the better team. No way that is the case. Very cheap number especially considering the matchup advantages for the host here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
301 Indianapolis at Kansas City With the snow having an effect on the game casual bettors are playing the under. But that plays right into the hands of the offense as the receivers have a bigger advantage knowing where they are going. Wind not snow is a reason to play an under, and we already expected to see plenty of scoring in this game. Indy plays zone defense and the Chiefs are excellent in picking apart the zone. Kansas City is terrible against the run, which will open up the Colts passing game. We look for a shootout here and the number is even better with the weather. PLAY OVER |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 79 h 46 m | Show |
104 Seattle at Dallas The Seahawks run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They have done so against a very weak schedule of run defenses. Dallas has a solid defensive line with two superior linebackers. So what Seattle does best plays into the strength of the Dallas defense. Seattle finished the regular season at -0.3 yards per play which is the worst of all playoff teams, much of that because of how much the Seahawks rely on running the football. Dallas really took off offensively after adding Amari Cooper. The team has used Elliot out of the backfield in passing situations, which it didn’t do enough of early in the season. Really surprised by this line move considering the home/road dichotomy of these two teams. Seattle at home has been outstanding but not nearly as good on the road. After not having much of a home field advantage, Dallas has been very good at home this year. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
232 Minnesota & Georgia Tech in Detroit Michigan From purely a mathematical comparison this line is pretty accurate. But that doesn’t count the situational advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson is leaving the program after his 11th year at Georgia Tech. In those eleven years this team has been bowling eight years, but only once the past three years. It’s important for this program to get back to a bowl, but more important as it will be Johnson’s final game on the sidelines. We saw the emotional edge a final game can make Monday night in Oakland as the Raiders played its best game of the season in its last home game in the city of Oakland. We expect more of the same here as Paul Johnson is one of the most respected coaches in college football. Minnesota was extremely pleased to get PJ Fleck to come to Minneapolis and take over the team last year. But in two years his teams have an 11-13 overall record. That’s worse than the previous five seasons under Jerry Kill and Tracy Claey.While the Golden Gophers have the better special teams, and the motive of finishing with a winning record, the line should still be closer to double digits. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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12-23-18 | Bengals +10 v. Browns | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
119 Cincinnati at Cleveland The Browns love has gotten completely out of hand. Yes they are playing better, but this line is ridiculous. Cleveland has gone from the hunted to the hunter, and it’s a role this team hasn’t had in years. Cincinnati has dominated this series, and you know the line has been a main source of motivation. Cleveland is better, but this line is completely out of whack. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
124 Baltimore at LA Chargers Third road game in four weeks for the Ravens, and its fifth game in a different city in five weeks. Baltimore has just come off the poor defenses of the Bucs, Chiefs, Falcons, Raiders and Bengals. Five of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now it must travel three time zones to face a Chargers defense with a healthy Joey Bosa. Since the quarterback move the Ravens have had success running the football and playing quality defense, but it will not be able to have that same ground game against Los Angeles. Because of its success on the ground the passing game has been overlooked. That likely won’t be the case here as Baltimore will have to put the ball in the air, and Jackson hasn’t shown that ability at this stage in his young career. We all know the Chargers have very little in home field value, but even if this team is awarded just one point at home, the line would say these teams are equal. And if you’ve watched these two you would know that’s just not right. The Chargers have been home four of the last six weeks and have extra time to prepare off that Kansas City victory. The Ravens offense hasn’t been tested, it will be here. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-22-18 | Wake Forest v. Memphis -3 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -114 | 43 h 51 m | Show |
222 Wake Forest & Memphis in Birmingham Deacons heading to a bowl for the third year in a row after not bowling for four years. Entering the postseason at 6-6 is an advantage for Wake, as the team can produce a winning season with a victory. That said, we were a bit disappointed in this team on the year as it just didn’t produce when stepping up in class. Other than the nationally televised shocker against NC State, this team really hasn’t beaten a quality team this season. Sure the team ended the regular season with a blowout victory over Duke, but the Blue Devils were simply not the same team in the second half of the season. Memphis has lost three bowl games in the past three seasons. It’s much more important for Mike Norvell’s crew to taste postseason victory. This is also one of the Top 10 rushing teams in the country, and that’s a big advantage in bowl season. While passing teams don’t have that week to week consistency, running teams don’t have those timing issues. We look for a high scoring game with the Tigers reaching the end zone on a consistent basis. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -3 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
215 Marshall & South Florida in Tampa The Thundering Herd are 6-0 SU & ATS since Doc Holliday took over the program nine years ago. This is one team you can always count on to give its best during the bowl season. Last time out Marshall lost at Virginia Tech in a throw away game, vs an opponent who needed the win to go bowling. Now off a loss we are getting a motivated team that won’t take USF lightly as the Bulls will be playing at home. Unlike the last three seasons USF doesn’t get to leave home for a bowl. That has to be a disappointment for these players. So how inspired will they be after finishing the season with five straight losses. After 10 and 11 win seasons previous to this year we can’t see any motivation from the host. The Better team is favored but the line should be even higher. PLAY MARSHALL |
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12-19-18 | Ohio -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 55 h 13 m | Show |
213 Ohio U & San Diego State in Frisco Texas The Bobcats were a bit of an underachiever during the regular season, as this team was expected to run away with the MAC East division. But in retrospect the Bobcats only conference losses were to Miami Ohio on the road by 2, and at Northern Illinois by 3. Ohio was a combined -3 in turnovers in those games. Frank Solich has one of the most senior laden teams in the country, and after coming up short in league play you know this class wants to go out with a bang in this bowl game. San Diego State also underperformed this season, ending the regular part of the schedule losing 4 of 5 games with the only victory being an 8 point win at New Mexico. In the last eight seasons Rocky Long’s teams are just 4-4 straight up in bowl action. San Diego State was favored in 6 of those 8 bowl games. He treats these games as more of a preseason game for the following season, as opposed to just about every other coach. We expect more of the same here after losing at Hawaii outright as an 18 point favorite to end the regular season. PLAY OHIO U |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
332 New Orleans at Carolina Just as you would expect, NFL defenses are starting to have success against the high powered offenses of the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. It’s only a matter of time until sharp minds make enough adjustments to give their own teams a chance at success. Look at how well the Ravens are doing as of late with the old school method of running the football and playing great defense. New Orleans is a terrific team, but this line is simply too high. Not only is it on the road against a divisional opponent, but it’s in front of a Monday Night Football crowd. Added to this situation is that this is the Panthers Super Bowl. A loss here and Carolina is done for the season. Live home dog on Monday night as we expect Carolina to play its best game of the season. PLAY CAROLINA |
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