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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-30-10 | Michigan State Spartans v. Iowa Hawkeyes -6.5 | Top | 6-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 45 m | Show |
Michigan State at Iowa
Right here is the problem with national polls and the BCS. Iowa has been installed as a 6 1/2 point home favorite over Michigan State by the people who make a living accepting and paying out actual money regarding their opinions. Michigan State is ranked 5th in the country in the BCS while Iowa is ranked 18th. The same is true for the associated press poll. Yet why are the Hawkeyes such a prohibitive favorite in this game? Because they are the better team. Michigan State has played the weaker of the two schedules and they have been the luckier squad. They were able to beat Wisconsin when Iowa fell short to the Badgers by a single point. Going into last week Oklahoma was clearly the most overrated team in the country. We mentioned that fact all week and were rewarded with our play on the Missouri Tigers. This week the Spartans take that distinction. While Michigan State is undefeated and overvalued Iowa comes in with a 5-2 record and a chip on their shoulder. They are off a 31-30 home loss to Wisconsin. Under Kirk Ferentz the Hawkeyes are an outstanding 31-17-1 ATS off a straight up loss including a 45-0 win over Ball State earlier this year, an easy 17 point spread cover. With only Indiana on deck the Spartans get the Hawkeyes full attention. Iowa has allowed an average of 3.25 points in the first halves of their home games against FBS opposition. They will jump out to an early lead and pound the Spartans into submission. While Michigan State is celebrating their national publicity Iowa takes care of business in a big way. PLAY IOWA |
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10-30-10 | San Diego State v. Wyoming Cowboys +10 | Top | 48-38 | Push | 0 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
San Diego State at Wyoming
The Aztecs have had a very impressive season under second year coach Brady Hoke. But while they have posted a solid 5-2 record they have done so against a very weak schedule. They have played the likes of New Mexico State, Utah State, BYU and New Mexico. The only quality teams they played were Air Force and Missouri. In four road games this year San Diego State has posted a 2-2 spread mark, as opposed to a perfect 3-0 ATS mark in San Diego. The Aztecs have had problems with the Cowboys as of late losing 3 of the last 4 meetings including three straight in Laramie. They were beaten straight up at home last year as a 7 point home favorite. Wyoming is having a down season under second year coach Dave Christensen with a 2-6 record heading into this game. But the Cowboys have played a murderous schedule with the likes of Texas, Boise State, Air Force, TCU and Utah. Now they finish the year with New Mexico, UNLV and Colorado State. This is a team that can realistically become bowl eligible by beating the Aztecs in this game. When not facing the all-powerful squads on their schedule Wyoming beat Toledo on the road and dropped a 5 point decision at BYU. On the scoreboard they played even in two very hostile environments. While San Diego State is certainly better than those two squads they are two steps below the likes of TCU, Boise State and Utah. Wyoming is a much better team that what has been shown on the scoreboard. They put a big scare into Air Force here earlier this year in a 6 point defeat. The Falcons and the Aztecs are very similar in talent and we expect a repeat performance. PLAY WYOMING |
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10-29-10 | West Virginia Mountaineers -6.5 v. Connecticut Huskies | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 60 m | Show |
West Virginia at Connecticut
West Virginia has struggled at bit away from Morgantown this year with a 24-21 overtime win at Marshall and a 20-14 loss at LSU. But in retrospect those were two highly motivated home teams they were facing. Marshall is always thought of as the younger brother to the Mountaineers and that was their biggest game of the season. LSU in the Bayou at night is always a very hostile environment. West Virginia has always been a good pointspread proposition away from home compiling a solid 28-15-1 ATS mark the past eight plus years. Off an upset loss the last time they took the field we expect a very determined West Virginia squad on Friday. Connecticut has really struggled offensively when facing somewhat talented defenses. They produced just 16 at Temple, were shut out last week at Louisville and managed just 10 against a questionable Michigan stop unit. To their credit they did put up very good numbers against Vanderbilt but the majority of their offensive success has come at the expense of the Texas Southern's and Buffalo's of the world. We can't see this Huskies team having much success in this match-up. Defensively against FBS opponents they have permitted at least 21 points to everyone. That includes the pop gun scoring units of Buffalo, Vanderbilt and Rutgers. UConn is a 3-4 team that is nowhere as good as their record. They've also lost all six games in this series including home losses by margins of 22, 26 and 12 points. The number is very cheap for the Mountaineers off an embarrassing home loss to Syracuse. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-24-10 | Oakland Raiders +9 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 59-14 | Win | 100 | 44 h 3 m | Show |
Oakland at Denver
Here we see what has become a common occurrence this year in the NFL. A team's starting quarterback goes down and the betting public overreacts. It happened in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Chicago and now in Oakland. We're getting additional points because Gradkowski and Campbell may be out. Is Kyle Boller really any worse than those two guys? How many big wins do they have on their resumes? Boller is a capable NFL quarterback that is being undervalued in the betting markets. Oakland has a huge scheduling advantage here that has been rarely mentioned. Two weeks ago they hosted San Diego and last week they drove across the bridge to take on the 49ers. Now after facing Denver they come right back home to host Seattle. Denver on the other hand must fly off to London after the game to take on San Francisco. Because of the long trip and time differences how much quality practice time will this team have. Not only that but it has to be stressful on the players and their families. History says that it makes a huge difference the week before as these clubs fail to cover on a consistent basis. Denver hasn't fared well at home against the Raiders, losing the last two meetings in straight up fashion. In fact, Denver has dropped four straight ATS hosting Oakland, losing to the spread by a combined 55 1/2 points. Last year they were a 14 point favorite and lost outright. The Broncos are now 5-19-1 as a home favorite. Off a last second home loss to the Jets and with a long trip to London on deck we can't see them fully focused on the task at hand. PLAY OAKLAND |
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10-24-10 | St. Louis Rams +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 46 h 27 m | Show |
St Louis at Tampa Bay
We're getting the better team plus the points in this one as the public has yet to realize just how bad this Bucs team really is. St Louis comes into this game with a 3-3 record including wins over Washington, Seattle and San Diego. They have won 3 of their last 4 games and despite being 0-2 on the road the Rams are playing with confidence for the first time in years. In each of the last six seasons St Louis has had a better spread record on the road as opposed to the Edward Jones Dome. Because they have been outscored 60-20 on foreign soil this year many will discard their improvement, and that would be a mistake. Tampa Bay comes in with the better record at 3-2 but you can make the case that they still don't have a quality win. Opening week they outlasted a Cleveland team by 3 that has just one win on the season. They next week they beat Carolina on the road but the Panthers and Bills look to be the two worst teams in football. The other victory came two weeks ago in Cincinnati when the Bengals gift wrapped the game with bad decision making and clock management. Against quality teams Tampa Bay has been outscored by a 69-19 margin and those two games were at home! The Buccaneers are not a team that's able to play from behind on a consistent basis and they have been abysmal in the opening half being outscored 18.6-7.4 and outgained 218.6-150.0. This is not a team that deserves to be laying points as Tampa Bay is 2-9 ATS at home under Raheem Morris. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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10-23-10 | Oklahoma Sooners v. Missouri Tigers +3 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 102 h 12 m | Show |
Oklahoma at Missouri
Despite the Sooners' lofty ranking they have been a disappointment. They barely beat Utah State in the home opener and struggled at home against Air Force. They then were very fortunate to pull out the victory at Cincinnati in a 2 point win as a 14 point favorite. A very telling stat on the Sooners is that they are just 3-3 ATS on the season despite owning a +9 turnover margin. This is one club you simply cannot afford to lay points with on the road. They are just 1-4 ATS away from home the last year plus including three outright losses to Miami Florida, Nebraska and Texas Tech. During that time they own just one road win by more than two points. Under Bob Stoops the last 11+ years they have posted a 13-18-1 ATS mark as conference road favorites. We really like this Tigers team who is 4-2 ATS on the season winning all six games outright. They did struggle at home against a much improved San Diego State team but every other win was impressive. Missouri is 24-5 straight up at Memorial Stadium the past 4+ years and a dangerous underdog in this spot. You see Missouri has had this game circled all off-season after losing the Conference Championship to Oklahoma in 2007 & 2008. Not only did they lose but they were embarrassed. They didn't get to play the Sooners last year, so this revenge game has been a long time coming for Gary Pinkel. Missouri has held 5 of 6 opponents to 13 points or less as this could be the best Missouri defense under Pinkel's direction. This game has a special meaning for the host and Oklahoma has proven themselves to be very beatable in true road games. We expect the Tigers to get their revenge on Saturday. PLAY MISSOURI |
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10-23-10 | Arizona State v. California Golden Bears -3 | Top | 17-50 | Win | 100 | 100 h 41 m | Show |
Arizona State at California
The Sun Devils entered the bye with a solid road victory at Washington. Now after a week off they prepare for a tough trip to play the Golden Bears. Arizona State has never been a good conference road underdog putting up a 6-20-1 spread record the last 9+ years in that role. Under Dennis Erickson they are just 1-6-1 as a conference road dog in his tenure. They have also really struggled at Cal posting a 1-4 straight up and 0-5 spread mark in Berkeley. Off a satisfying road win at Washington we feel the Sun Devils will come out a bit sluggish. Cal was thoroughly embarrassed last week at USC as they were never in that game. But now they are back home off an embarrassing loss and playing a team they have dominated here. Cal is 7-2 as a conference home favorite and 12-3 ATS overall at Memorial Stadium as of late. They have outscored the opposition on this field 139-17 thus far this season including blowout wins over Colorado and UCLA. The Bears have beaten the Sun Devils here by margins of 10, 28 and 27 points the last three home meetings. Cal is 3-0 with three spread covers here while 0-3 with two spread losses on the road. The last four plus seasons Cal is 25-4 straight up at home but just 9-16 outright on the road. The Cal home field advantage here is huge and it's not given enough credit in this match-up. PLAY CALIFORNIA |
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10-23-10 | Indiana Hoosiers +13.5 v. Illinois Fighting Illini | Top | 13-43 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
Indiana at Illinois
The Hoosiers have put up at least 35 points against every opponent not wearing Ohio State across their chests. This is a squad who has beaten Illinois outright 3 of the last 5 meetings including a 27-14 victory last year. So why are they getting two full touchdowns in this match-up? Sure the Hoosiers aren't an elite team in the Big 10 Conference, but neither are the Illini. Don't fault their 36-34 home win over a pretty good Arkansas State team last week. The Red Wolves played Iowa within three points on the road last year and won at Texas A&M the previous season. Indiana gave a similar Michigan team all they could handle just three weeks ago in a 42-35 home loss. Illinois is off three very physical contests after facing Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. Illinois has played four games against BCS Conference competition and 3 of those 4 games they were held to 13 points or less. Ron Zook is not the type of coach you want to lay points with as the Illini are on a 5-10 ATS run as home favorites. After facing three straight top notch defenses this Illinois offense should be a battered and bruised group. We simply do not trust them to score enough points to extend any type of lead in this game. This spread is simply too high in what has been a very competitive series. PLAY INDIANA |
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10-17-10 | Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show |
Kansas City at Houston
Don't look now but the Chiefs who went a combined 6-26 straight up the past two seasons have now won 4 of their last 7 road games in straight up fashion. Even in a 19-9 loss last week at Indy they proved that this is not a team to take lightly. The Colts entered that game off a straight up loss and Indy had been 42-7 straight up at home the past six plus seasons. Kansas City did everything but cover that number in a game they very easily could have won outright. Kansas City has held every single opponent to 19 points or less this season which is especially impressive when facing the likes of Indianapolis and San Diego. They will not be intimidated by this Houston scoring unit. Houston is 3-2 on the year but they haven't been impressive, especially in the first half. The Texans have been outscored in the first stanza by an average of 15-6 to 8.0. They have been outgained by a margin of 213.2 to 143.6. The favored Texans have permitted at least 24 points to every opponent and that includes games against the struggling offenses of Washington, Dallas, Oakland and the Giants. We're getting the far better defense as an underdog and Houston is already 1-2 straight up at Reliant Stadium this season. Look for the Chiefs to put themselves in position for the outright victory. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.