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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-27-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. Dallas Cowboys +2 | Top | 39-28 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 31 m | Show |
480 Atlanta at Dallas Now that Tony Romo is hurt again the season is about to come apart for the Cowboys. At least that’s what the press would like you to believe. Because of the injury the Cowboys are now home underdogs in this matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. We always like to back a team the game after a key player is hurt as the squad knows it must be at peak performance to win. While Dallas doesn’t have a normal home field value we will get top efforts from the Cowboys this week. Keep in mind Dallas is 2-0, out gaining the opposition by 280 yards despite a -2 turnover margin. This club is losing the turnover battle and still finding ways to win. Dallas is doing what is does best and that is winning the time of possession by 17:40 per game. The offensive line is what gives the Cowboys a big edge and it’s been reinforced by DeMarco Murray and his major struggles in Philadelphia. PLAY DALLAS |
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09-26-15 | Central Michigan v. Michigan State -26.5 | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 36 m | Show |
316 Central Michigan at Michigan State Very surprised by the shortness in this line as we have two sets of power ratings supporting numbers of 35 and 38. Central Michigan has faced Oklahoma State who had struggled offensively until last week, Monmouth and Syracuse which has been very injury prone at quarterback. While it’s an in-state game the Chippewas do have Northern Illinois on deck and the Huskies have major revenge for a home field loss a year ago. The last time Central played a Top 20 team on the road it lost at Michigan by 50 points in 2013. That team is very similar to the squad John Bonamego took over this year.Michigan State is 8-3 ATS installed as a double digit favorite, and 8-2 ATS when facing opposition from the state of Michigan. The Western Michigan Broncos stayed under the number opening week here but that was the game prior to Oregon for the Spartans. With only Purdue on deck there is no lookahead for Michigan State. Last week in a post Oregon situation the Spartans were favored by 24 1/2 vs Air Force. Now the line is only slightly higher against a team we rate 8 points worse than the fly boys. Big edge here for the host.PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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09-20-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
288 Seattle at Green Bay |
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09-19-15 | Texas-San Antonio v. Oklahoma State -24.5 | Top | 14-69 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
156 UTSA at Oklahoma State |
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09-13-15 | Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets -3 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 97 h 56 m | Show |
468 Cleveland at NY Jets Both teams have solid defenses in which to lean on in the early going as the offenses lag behind. But while the Jets have improved offensively and will only get better, the Browns could be one of the most inept offensive teams in league history. Led by a QB that posted a 1-10 record for Tampa Bay last year as a starter, and a listing of no names at the skill positions. The Browns don’t have a breakaway player anywhere at wide receiver or running back and the line can only do so much to keep the quarterback upright. The Jets have two of the best corners in all of football and they will have a big advantage against these Cleveland wideouts. The Jets bolstered an already solid defense in the offseason and the offense is much better than a year ago. Fitzpatrick has his flaws but with a defense like what he has now he doesn’t need to make plays to keep his team in the game. We were very surprised to see this line open where it has considering the average home field value in the NFL is roughly the same as this line. So the betting public is telling us on a neutral field this teams would be even. But let’s look at the season win numbers for both these squads. The Jets are listed at 7.5 while the Browns are at 6.0. While we do feel Cleveland is in a tougher division, the season win numbers clearly point to the Jets being the better team. We firmly agree which is why we are making the Jets our Best Bet for the opening week of the NFL season.PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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09-12-15 | Pittsburgh v. Akron +12 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
368 Pittsburgh at Akron |
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09-12-15 | San Diego State +14 v. California | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
357 San Diego State at California |
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09-12-15 | Bowling Green +7.5 v. Maryland | Top | 48-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
369 Bowling Green at Maryland |
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09-05-15 | Mississippi State v. Southern Miss +21 | Top | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 11 m | Show |
204 Mississippi State at Southern Miss Two teams heading in opposite directions yet the betting line hasn’t caught up to the changes. Southern Miss had an excellent program not too long ago but fell on hard times. Now we look for SM to continue the better play from a year ago. The Golden Eagles bring back 15 starters as well as three transfers from the power five conferences. Overall 9 of 10 offensive linemen return along with much better depth all around, including the quarterback position. It’s the third year of coach Todd Monken’s system which should be a big plus. Mississippi State was once the top rated team in the nation last year but consistently faded as the season unfolded. Excellent QB Prescott returns along with a talented offense, but this defense has many question marks. It wore down as the season unfolded and the true depth of this team is a mystery. Manny Diaz is back as defensive coordinator after leaving Louisiana Tech.  He will get the best of these players as the season unfolds but we’re not sold at this point. A lack of depth in the front seven tells us that the Golden Eagles can keep the chains moving.PLAY SOUTHERN MISS |
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09-03-15 | TCU v. Minnesota +14.5 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 78 h 44 m | Show |
142 TCU at Minnesota |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -100 | 195 h 33 m | Show |
102 New England & Seattle |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
107 Minnesota at Miami |
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12-20-14 | Utah -2.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
205 Utah at Colorado State A bit surprised by the line movement on this one as the head coach-less Rams have been taking money, knocking this line down to 3 in the process. Colorado State gets to play in Las Vegas every other year and the holiday travel of this game could be a chore for Rams backers. Playing in the Mountain West Conference also means Colorado State played the weaker of the two schedules.Utah on the other hand has sold out its allotment of tickets as the Top 20 ranked basketball team is also playing in Vegas this weekend. That adds to the excitement for the Utes faithful. While Colorado State throws the ball well it rarely sees the pressure Utah will bring defensively. Utah has always traveled well to this location in past years as part of the Mountain West and we expect them to have a solid advantage in the stands. We know Utah is excited to be here, not so sure with a Colorado State team with a coach that left for Florida.PLAY UTAH |
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12-14-14 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts -6.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 66 h 20 m | Show |
312 Houston at Indianapolis |
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12-07-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Philadelphia Eagles -109 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 41 m | Show |
176 Seattle at Philadelphia |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State +4.5 | Top | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 55 h 27 m | Show |
128 Wisconsin at Ohio State |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals -1.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 18-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
469 Arizona at Atlanta Cheap number to lay here with the far better squad. Arizona finds ways to win while the Falcons find ways to lose. Looking at stats it’s hard to see how the Cardinals have amassed such a strong record. But that’s why we can find value on them at less than a field goal. Arizona doesn’t dazzle. They don’t have a high flying offense like a Green Bay or New England. What this team does do is play quality defense and not turn the ball over. The exact opposite of the Atlanta Falcons.Matt Ryan and company do not take care of the football and the defense has allowed season highs to more than one team this year. Keep in mind that Atlanta is 4-7 on the season, with all four wins coming against divisional opponents. The same division that has co-leaders of the Falcons and Saints at three games under 500. Arizona is 3-2 on the road with the losses coming at the two Super Bowl participants from last year. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-29-14 | Michigan State -13.5 v. Penn State | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
399 Michigan State at Penn State |
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11-28-14 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Western Michigan | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
319 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan Experience counts and that’s a big edge for the Huskies players and coaches. Northern Illinois has dominated this league the past number of seasons, playing and winning big games on a consistent basis. After a slow start to the season as expected, the Huskies are right back where they normally are, playing a huge game late in the season.Western Michigan has been a big money maker for backers this season with some spots showing the Broncos undefeated against the spread. While on the surface that would be a terrific thing based on the past, but just the opposite when looking towards the future. Everyone who has been riding the Western Michigan money machine will be back for more here, which will and has pumped up this line. That gives a pointspread advantage to the much more experienced team. The Broncos had a great recruiting class this year and the future looks extremely bright. But this team just doesn’t have the experience to play in this type of game against a club who expected to be here where the season started. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-16-14 | New England Patriots +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
473 New England at IndianapolisIn what is sure to be a high scoring game we will take the veteran signal caller to do what is necessary to gain the victory. The last five games the Patriots are averaging more than 40 points per game, as the return of Gronkowski has taken this offense to another level. The amazing part of the recent offensive success is that it has come at the expense of very good defenses. The Bears are the only weak stop unit New England has faced as of yet and tonights opponent isn’t known for its defense. This is also the first game all season in a dome for New England as all the offensive damage has been done outdoors. Indy will put up points as they always do but when a defensive stop needs to be made we trust the Pats to get it done.PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford UNDER 43 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 48 m | Show |
356 Utah at Stanford |
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11-15-14 | Rice v. Marshall -21 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
376 Rice at Marshall |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati OVER 68 | Top | 46-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
311 East Carolina at Cincinnati |
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11-08-14 | Florida v. Vanderbilt +14.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 21 m | Show |
136 Florida at Vanderbilt |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -11 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 31 h 28 m | Show |
368 Oklahoma State at Kansas StateNow that the line has gone down a bit it’s time to jump in with one of our favorite money makers, Bill Snyder and the Kansas State Wildcats. K State is our long shot pick to make it into the Final Four as they currently sit at #9 at the moment. This is a team with a stout defense and an offense that’s dynamic but stays under the national radar. With the playoff structure in view it wouldn’t surprise us if any of the top 20 teams tack on an extra score to impress the pollsters.Oklahoma State is known as a high flying offensive squad but once the starting QB went down this team imploded. A major drop off at the quarterback position has made this team ordinary at best. The Cowboys have scored just one offensive touchdown in the last ten quarters and the going will be tough on Saturday against this stop unit. The number looks to be at least six points too low.PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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11-01-14 | East Carolina -7 v. Temple | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -116 | 66 h 29 m | Show |
315 East Carolina at Temple Nowhere to go but up in regards to this line movement. Pirates looked as though it went through the motions in front of a national audience on Thursday in a 31-21 victory over Connecticut. But that was a rare national stage for a bad UConn team and it left it all on the playing field. East Carolina on the other hand has higher expectations. After being criticized in the press for not distancing themselves we don’t expect East Carolina to take any prisoners here.Temple is a team fading fast and the betting public has been slow to react. The Owls were absolutely steamrolled last week against Central Florida and the first half stats were about as dominant as you will ever see for a 6 point favorite. Temple started the year fine but since that time has regressed. Early games against Vanderbilt, Navy, Connecticut and Tulsa don’t look nearly as strong now as all those teams have disappointed. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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10-19-14 | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
459 Seattle at St Louis |
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10-18-14 | Akron -3 v. Ohio | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -102 | 44 h 13 m | Show |
319 Akron at Ohio U Don’t look now but the Zips are 8-3 its last 11 games as coach Bowden is pointing this team in a positive direction. Akron is looking to avenge an embarrassing 43-3 loss to these Bobcats a season ago. The Zips currently own the top defense in the Mid-American Conference. QB Pohl has been listed as out for this contest but the drop off at QB isn’t nearly as drastic as the line would have you believe. We had Akron favored by 9 with Pohl and he is not a 6 point player. Very few quarterbacks are at this level, especially in a conference like the MAC which is down this year. This overreaction in the marketplace gives us a nice price on the far better team.Ohio U is also playing with a backup signal caller as the Bobcats are very thin at many positions. Akron owns the better defense, better overall talent and 40 point home loss revenge. We expect a double digit victory.PLAY AKRON |
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10-11-14 | Louisville v. Clemson -11.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 6 m | Show |
174 Louisville at Clemson Even though we fully expect QB Will Gardner and WR DeVante Parker to return for this game, we feel the line is a bit short with the Tigers. Both players are returning from injury so we can’t expect either to be 100% if they do play. And there is always a chance that either or both could miss the game because of lingering problems. Coach Petrino talked about the scoring unit in his weekly presser and he referred to having a limited offense. Both inexperience at the quarterback position and lack of protection in the offensive line. Neither is a positive when taking on one of the best defensive fronts in college football. Clemson off a shutout of NC State will be primed for another shutdown performance.Under QB DeShaun Watson the Tigers have been dynamic offensively. He has a cannon for an arm and the pro scouts must be salivating with his ability. He put up 266 passing yards off the bench against Florida State and led his team to a combined 91 points in two starts against North Carolina and NC State. To put up 50 points the week after losing the heartbreaker to the Seminoles tells us all about the talent of this Clemson offense. We expect this line to climb so get in now with the Tigers.PLAY CLEMSON |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets v. San Diego Chargers -6.5 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 69 h 40 m | Show |
474 NY Jets at San Diego The Jets have a solid defensive front but the secondary has major problems. That’s not a good sign considering the Chargers don't rely on running the football. San Diego throws downfield and uses the short passing game to make up for a lack of a running attack. That bodes well in this one by taking away the best part of this Jets team.Huge edge in coaching and quarterbacks here and the Jets coast to coast travel adds to the New York problems. The Jets continue to find ways to lose games while the Chargers are looking like a real contender here. Very surprised this game is lined less than a touchdown.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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09-27-14 | Duke +7 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -109 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
179 Duke at Miami Florida First real test of the season for the Blue Devils who step up in class after facing Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. But this is a team that has now won 12 of 13 games heading into this contest with just two losses by more than 3 points in the last 1 1/3 seasons. Duke has a running attack that can find success against the Hurricanes who have shown an inability to stop the run. Last year Duke amassed 358 rushing yards and 6.9 yards per carry against this stop unit. The Blue Devils beat Miami 48-30 as a home underdog and not much has changed with these two programs.Miami had success against weaklings like Florida A&M and Arkansas State, but this team struggled when stepping up in class against the likes of Louisville and Nebraska. Miami has a great deal of talent on defense but this club just doesn’t play well as a team defensively. So while Miami has revenge on its mind it’s the Blue Devils who have the equal to superior team.PLAY DUKE |
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09-21-14 | Houston Texans -119 v. NY Giants | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -119 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
457 Houston at NY Giants The Texans are not in the best travel situation by playing an early game on the east coast after being in Oakland last week. But that’s not a huge concern for a team that had the kind of season Houston had last year. The Texans started 2-0 and the wheels came out from under them. Now they once again sit at 2-0 so this game should bring a larger than average focus.The Giants just stink right now. The new offense hasn’t been picked up well by Manning and the team looks to be going through the motions. Arizona played the late Monday Night Football game and had to travel to the east coast for an early start last week. An hour before game time the starting quarterback was ruled out. Yet the Cardinals still won. That tells you how bad this New York team is right now. The Giants went 4-0 in the preseason but it was the deep backups who won the games in the second half. The starters struggled just as they have in this regular season.PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-20-14 | Oklahoma -7 v. West Virginia | Top | 45-33 | Win | 100 | 75 h 10 m | Show |
389 Oklahoma at West Virginia We talked last week about Bob Stoops and his hatred of the SEC. That was part of the reason for our opinion on the Sooners. This week he talked about making a statement against West Virginia because they hung in tough against SEC entrant Alabama. Oklahoma is a legit national title contender who will look to make a statement here against an improved Mountaineer club. Keep in mind last year West Virginia held the Sooners to just 16 points in a 16-7 Oklahoma victory. That 16 points was the smallest Oklahoma home point total since scoring 19 against Kansas State and 13 against Notre Dame in the 2012 season. Both those clubs were ranked in the Top 15 when the Sooners faced them. What did Oklahoma do against those clubs last year? 2-0 straight up and ATS covering the number by 25 1/2 combined points. West Virginia is an improved club under Dana Holgerson but keep in mind since his arrival the team won 10, 7 and 4 games heading into 2014. Overall you can grade his work in Morgantown as unsatisfactory. West Virginia is just 2-3 ATS as a home dog in his tenure and after opening in the 12 point range this line has been pounded down to 7. That’s just too much of an adjustment as we step in with a cheap number on the Sooners.PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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09-14-14 | Arizona Cardinals +1 v. NY Giants | Top | 25-14 | Win | 100 | 120 h 25 m | Show |
259 Arizona at NY Giants Short week for both these squads but the Cardinals new offense showed some signs in the second half against the Chargers. The same cannot be said of the Giants. New York was facing a very young secondary and yet could not exploit the Lions by throwing downfield. Without that ability it’s hard to see Eli Manning and company having any success here. The Giants refuse to open the field and that running game won’t have success against this Arizona front seven. We expect the visitor to go off the favorite in this game so we are releasing this one early.PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-13-14 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -16.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -106 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
124 Eastern Michigan at Old Dominion |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 21 m | Show |
102 Pittsburgh at Baltimore Nice setup here for the Ravens who are already 0-1 in the division trailing both rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. While it’s hard to imagine a must win situation in the second week, this is about as close as it gets for the Ravens. Whenever any of the three AFC North contenders play it’s important to not lay over three if possible, as many times these games come down to a field goal. In fact, the last five games between these two have been decided by exactly three points. With the short week of preperation the home teams have a major edge, especially if it played the prior week at home. That’s the situation we have here with Baltimore off a home loss and the Steelers off a tough home victory. The Ravens are fully focused off a bad performance while the Steelers are happy to escape the Browns with a last second victory. Now with less time to prepare because of travel we can see the Steelers coming up on the short end of the scoreboard here.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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09-07-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
474 Cincinnati at Baltimore |
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09-06-14 | Memphis v. UCLA -23 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
382 Memphis at UCLA |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers v. Washington State OVER 61 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 131 h 8 m | Show |
143 Rutgers at Washington State The Scarlet Knights put up 26.5 ppg a season ago and bring back 9 starters including improving quarterback Gary Nova. Rutgers has a quality offensive line which will give him time to find open receivers against a questionable Cougar stop unit.Washington State put up 31 ppg a year ago while allowing 32.5. The Cougars return 8 starters to an offense that brings back the outstanding Connor Halliday behind center. Washington State is deep and talented at the receiver spots and they have impact freshmen on the offensive side of the ball. With Rutgers have major problems in the defensive secondary the Cougars should be in for a big day offensively.PLAY OVER |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 78 h 17 m | Show |
101 Seattle & Denver in New Jersey
Keeping this analysis concise as the real money to be made in this game is in the props. Defense wins Super Bowls and we have the best defense in the league at an underdog price. Seattle played the much tougher schedule by beating San Francisco twice, New Orleans twice and Carolina. This is a team that has gone nine straight games without allowing more than 20 points to any opponent. Only once all season has an opponent surpassed 24 points against the Seahawks. Denver has had a terrific season and this offense has been outstanding but this team is overrated coming into the big game. The public likes offense and personalities and the Broncos have two of the best. But keep in mind that the only teams Denver played that made the playoffs that they didn |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
107 San Francisco at Green Bay
Here we have two teams on the complete opposites when being compared by strength of schedule. The 49ers had one of the strongest slates in the league while Green Bay faced one of the easiest. The Packers toughest game of the year was the opener against these 49ers. After that they played just two other teams that made the playoffs, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Green Bay lost all three of those games by a combined margin of 24 points. Despite the easy slate of games the Packers could only out gain the opposition 6.0 to 5.9 yards per play. We are well aware of the Aaron Rodgers injury situation but those numbers are hard to ignore, yet I haven |
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01-01-14 | UNLV v. North Texas -6.5 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
250 UNLV & North Texas in Dallas
The Rebels haven |
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12-30-13 | Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
233 Mississippi & Georgia Tech in Nashville
Mississippi was one of those teams that stayed under the national radar because of playing in the always tough SEC. With a 7-5 record and losses to Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, Missouri and Mississippi State. Other than the Bulldogs each of the other defeats came against highly ranked opposition. This is a defense that has held six straight opponents to 24 points or less. Ole Miss has been bowling five times since 2002 winning every game by margins of 21, 14, 13, 3 and 4 points. The Rebels were never favored by more than 3 1/2 points in any of those games. Head Coach Hugh Freeze has experience in the postseason after guiding Arkansas State to a bowl win and cover last year. Georgia Tech has been bowling each of the last five years under Paul Johnson. He |
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12-22-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers -3 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 140 h 47 m | Show |
104 New Orleans at Carolina
Getting this play out now because we feel this line will rise. Quick revenge game here for the Panthers who lost at New Orleans in a prime time affair 31-13 just two weeks ago. That loss broke an eight game Carolina winning streak and is the lone loss for the Panthers in the last ten games. That 31 points allowed by Carolina in that game is a full touchdown more than this team has yielded in any other game this season. The Panthers are 6-1 straight up at home this year with every victory coming by 4 points or more. The lone loss was all the way back in the opening week when Seattle won 12-7. The Saints are 3-4 on the road this year but wins at Tampa Bay and Atlanta have been less than impressive. Earlier New Orleans won at Chicago and lost in dramatic fashion at New England, but it |
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +5.5 | Top | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
328 Kansas City at Oakland
The Chiefs have averaged 16.8 points per game the last five meetings in Oakland with one of those contests going into overtime. Last year Kansas City was shut out here 15-0. Until a 24-7 victory earlier this year in Arrowhead the Chiefs had failed to cover 5 of the 6 previous overall meetings. After facing divisional rivals Denver twice and San Diego the Chiefs took advantage early against Washington last week and looked very impressive. But keep in mind that Andy Reid knows the Redskins very well from many years at Philadelphia, the Chiefs had a big advantage in that game. Because of the blowout win the game has been adjusted 1 1/2 points from the look ahead lines two weeks ago. Kansas City |
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12-07-13 | Missouri +2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 42-59 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 46 m | Show |
121 Missouri and Auburn at the Georgia Dome
The Tigers just aren |
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12-05-13 | Louisville v. Cincinnati +3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 22 m | Show |
104 Louisville at Cincinnati
The Cardinals have been an overrated club all season and because they continue to post victories the lines haven |
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11-16-13 | Oregon State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
363 Oregon State at Arizona State
When handicapping games you must be able to look past what is obvious and find value in what many would overlook. Take for instance this Oregon State offense. The Beavers opened the season by scoring 46, 33, 51, 34, 44, 52 and 49 points. The last two games they were held to just 12 and 14 points. So obviously this offense is regressing. That couldn |
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11-16-13 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -27 | Top | 34-63 | Win | 100 | 126 h 54 m | Show |
360 Texas Tech at Baylor
Last week we had great success backing the Bears and fading the Red Raiders. Why should this week be any different. We have a play on team against a major play against squad. Texas Tech simply does not have the depth to compete against the tough Big 12 late in the year. The last 2+ years Texas Tech is 1-12 SU the final five games of the season with the lone victory coming in double overtime hosting Kansas. The Red Raiders were a 24 1/2 point favorite in that contest. Texas Tech has lost three straight when stepping up in class after starting the season undefeated. Baylor has a 3.7 yards per play advantage to go along with a .50 points per play edge. In a game where 80 plays are expected the Bears would have a 40 point advantage not including special teams play. Many will expect Baylor to have a letdown here after beating up Oklahoma in what was considered a statement game for the host. But each of the last two years the Bears beat Kansas State and Oklahoma outright as double digit dogs and still easily covered the following week. Besides, that Oklahoma game was on Thursday so the Bears have two extra days to prepare. This game is being played in Arlington a neutral site for both these clubs. But Baylor had little problem the last two years taking care of the Red Raiders on a neutral field. We said two weeks ago that we thought Texas Tech was a fraud and it |
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11-16-13 | Houston +17.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
323 Houston at Louisville
Louisville has the better record but we |
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11-16-13 | TCU v. Kansas State -10.5 | Top | 31-33 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 24 m | Show |
392 TCU at Kansas State
The TCU Horned Frogs sit at 4-6 on the season. The truth is that this Horned Frogs team is well below previous editions. The four wins for TCU this year were against SE Louisiana, SMU, Kansas and Iowa State. TCU has now lost 10 of their last 16 games. Last year at home the Horned Frogs lost to Kansas State 23-10. TCU doesn |
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans v. Arizona Cardinals -2 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 53 m | Show |
222 Houston at Arizona
Let |
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11-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -123 | 76 h 26 m | Show |
417 Baltimore at Cleveland
You can bet the Super Bowl Champions will give a terrific effort when they travel to Cleveland on Sunday. This is a team who is coming in off a bye after losing back to back nail biters. In fact, Baltimore is 1-3 on the season in games decided by 3 points or less. They have been in every game since the opening contest against the Broncos and now it |
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions OVER 50.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
Dallas at Detroit
Tough scheduling spot for the Cowboys off televised affair with Denver, followed by important divisional games with Washington and Philadelphia. Dallas is now set up in good position to win this division as the offense has been outstanding. But we do have serious concerns about this defense who will be missing two key components on Sunday. This is a team allowing 5.7 yards per play while producing 5.8 ypp themselves, this against a pretty solid slate of opposition. They should have little problem moving the football against a Detroit defense that has yielded a whopping 6.3 yards per play. The league average in that regard is 5.4. The Lions permit 5.1 yards per carry so even a banged up Cowboy running game should have success. Offensively Detroit is dangerous, especially playing at home. Detroit has a bye week on deck and this game means much more to them than the Cowboys. That said Dallas is the better team but the spot screams Detroit. Rather than get too involved with the side here we will look for a shoot em out offensive affair, as we feel neither team will have much success stopping the opposition. PLAY OVER |
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10-26-13 | Utah +6.5 v. USC | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 50 m | Show |
149 Utah at USC
Now that QB Travis Wilson has greatly improved at practice we will send this selection out while 7's are still available. The last two seasons the Utes gave ranked USC squads all they could handle and at this point we are not sure that Kyle Whittingham's team isn't the better squad. Utah has played the significantly tougher schedule and yet have very comparable numbers. When making the needed adjustments regarding the opposition Utah is equal or even better in most of the key statistics. USC still has a slight edge defensively but the Utah offense towers over this scoring unit for the Trojans. Not only is the USC offense weak, it's missing virtually all it's starting skill position players. This is a banged up offense that has been held to 7, 10 and 17 points so far this season. While this Ute defense isn't stellar we can't see these remaining Trojan bodies putting up more than 20 points in this game. That's why taking the current touchdown has so much value. The Trojans most impressive victories this season came against Arizona and Utah State, two teams that for various reasons have not lived up to preseason expectations. Utah on the other hand beat two outstanding football teams in Stanford and BYU. While the attitude in Los Angeles is better since the coaching change the players on hand haven't impressed with their play. PLAY UTAH |
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10-20-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 36 m | Show |
400 San Diego at Jacksonville
Short week of preparation for the Chargers off a Monday Night Football victory over the Colts. That was a coming out party of sorts for the host as Indy had been a fan favorite in the early going. Now the Chargers travel cross country on a short week before a bye week on deck. It's very common for those with a vacation on deck to go through the motions the week heading up to the break. It happened to us as kids when vacation was on the horizon and it happens to NFL clubs as well, especially likely in this scenario with San Diego. This is also a team that shows a negative yards per point metric of -0.4, installed as more than a touchdown road favorite. San Diego doesn't run the ball well enough to protect a lead at just 3.7 ypr. When backing out games they are involved in the Chargers have played opponents with a .467 win percentage while the Jaguars faced the much tougher schedule at .667. Jacksonville is a much better team with Blackmon and Henne in the lineup. The last two games the Jags have only been out gained by a combined 33 total yards despite being underdogs of a combined 37 1/2 points. Jacksonville must travel to London after this contest to face the San Francisco 49ers, a very likely defeat. You can bet the players and coaches will give an extreme effort here to get this winless monkey off their backs. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-19-13 | Navy v. Toledo -7.5 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 14 m | Show |
Navy at Toledo
For the second straight week the Midshipmen face a team coming off of a bye. That isn't good news for Navy as a major advantage they have in-season is that the opposition rarely sees the Navy option. Getting the extra week to prepare for it is one big advantage for the opposition. Just last week Duke was coming off a bye and they led wire to wire in a dominating victory. The last three games Navy has been outscored by 22 combined points and out gained by 336 combined yards despite playing the likes of Duke, Air Force and Western Kentucky. The Midshipmen are only averaging 20.8 points per game despite playing against very giving defenses. While Toledo does have a big game on deck against Bowling Green, the Rockets have beaten the Falcons each of the last three seasons. This is a team that has gone 5-0-1 ATS against non-conference FBS competition and has already faced Florida, Missouri and an excellent Ball State squad. Toledo has the better overall numbers in this contest despite playing a stronger strength of schedule. The Glass Bowl has been very good to the host as they have never had a losing home spread record in any season in the last decade, that includes a perfect 2-0 spread mark this year. Toledo is permitting just 3.8 yards per attempt this season and that includes a 5.5 ypr Florida success rate in the opener. Since that game this Rocket defense has been stellar against the run, which is the strength of this Navy squad. PLAY TOLEDO |
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10-10-13 | Arizona v. USC -5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 79 h 55 m | Show |
108 Arizona at USC
The last five meetings between these two have been decided by 7 points or less as Arizona has held their own against the Trojans. But neither team in this contest has a passing game to speak of and the USC personnel on defense is much superior to any unit the Wildcats put on the field. Arizona has amassed 445 total passing yards on the season despite playing three really bad football teams out of their four game schedule. Northern Arizona, UNLV and UTSA aren't exactly household names when it comes to pass defense and the Wildcats couldn't out gain any of those squads through the air. Arizona is averaging only 5.0 yards per play which is well below the 5.6 FBS average. And that was against a very weak schedule. USC on the other hand only permits 4.7 yards per play and their schedule featured the likes of Washington State, Utah State and Arizona State, three very good offenses. USC is allowing only 3.5 yards per rush which is well below the 4.3 ypr FBS average. They have the ability to stymie the Arizona rushing attack and for the Wildcats to pass the ball, something they haven't done all season. Now that the Lane Kiffin era is over for the Trojans, we can see this team coming out and proving a point from here on out, especially this week. The bye after the Arizona State debacle couldn't have come at a better time. This is a program that recruits the best of the best as the talent level far surpasses that of Arizona which is known as a basketball school. The best unit on the field is the USC defense and we can see that stop unit forcing at least one major mistake out of this limited Arizona scoring unit. This number is extremely cheap. PLAY USC |
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10-06-13 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers OVER 53 | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
Detroit at Green Bay
The Lions are averaging 30.5 points per game and it should be much higher. In watching this team we continue to see missed opportunities on the offensive end turning likely touchdowns into field goal attempts. Even though last weeks game against the Bears surpassed the posted total, it should have done so much quicker. This is a team averaging and allowing over 400 yards per contest. Considering they faced the struggling offenses of Minnesota, Arizona and Washington is especially telling. We saw how easily Jay Cutler moved the ball on them last week early on when the contest was still in question, that's likely to be the case here against the explosive Packers. The league average in points per play is .35. Green Bay and Detroit both average .40 both offensively and defensively. Green Bay is running the ball very well this year which was its problem in the past. The Pack should have great success on the ground against this very giving Detroit stop unit. Green Bay is off a heartbreaking loss and with a bye week they had another full week to stew. The Packers had that game against Cincinnati in the bag and then rested on their laurels, that's not going to be the case here. If Green Bay has the lead they will continue to pour it on, and considering Detroit hasn't won here in eons, that's likely to be the case. PLAY OVER |
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09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins v. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 128 h 56 m | Show |
226 Miami v New Orleans
Both teams enter this contest at 3-0 but the Dolphins have been doing it with mirrors. This is a team that has been out gained in all three games yet ended the contests ahead on the scorecard. Miami hasn't run the football effectively and the offensive line is having a hard time keeping the quarterback upright. The Dolphins are averaging just 13.1 yards per point while the league average is 19.5, that tells us they have been taking advantage of excellent field position. The Dolphin defense is permitting 4.7 yards per rush which is well above the 4.1 league average. The Saints have now cashed 10 straight regular season home games with Sean Payton as head coach. They were a perfect 8-0 ATS in 2011 and have covered the spread in both home games this year by a combined 19 1/2 points. New Orleans has also cashed eight straight in the Superdome when facing opponents outside its division. New Orleans has a huge home field advantage when taking on opponents who have not experienced the noise of the New Orleans fans. That is sure to be magnified here under the Monday Night Football lights. The Saints are better than league average defensively in a lll the key metrics, as the change at defensive coordinator is doing wonders. New Orleans has a huge offensive edge, major home field edge and are at least equal statistically defensively. This number short of a touchdown is an easy choice. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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09-29-13 | NY Jets +4 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
215 NY Jets v Tennessee
We've been impressed with the New York Jets in the early going as they have out gained each and every opponent by at least 50 yards or better. The passing game which was considered to be a major weakness entering the year is about league average in yards per game but well above the average in yards per pass completion. The running game has also been solid which makes this offense very well balanced. The Jets are averaging 5.3 yards per play while allowing only 4.1 which is one of the better marks in the league. A problem for New York has been turnovers but overall we have to say this New York squad has outplayed preseason expectations. While the Jets have remained an under the radar squad the Titans are being promoted a bit more than they deserve. This is a team that allows more yards per play than they produce and have taken advantage of a plus 5 turnover margin. When backing out games against Tennessee the Titans opponents are winning just 1/3 of their games. Tennessee is below league average virtually in all offensive categories and the passing game has been especially troublesome. The Jets 14-10 loss to the Titans last year put them on an 0-3 spiral to finish the season. In that game they had a minus 5 turnover disadvantage and still played Tennessee tough. Jake Locker and the Titans have yet to turn the ball over this season and we know that they cannot remain that fortunate. We expect New York to take this to the wire and an outright victory is likely in the cards. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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09-22-13 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets UNDER 39 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 6 m | Show |
Buffalo v NY Jets
Former Jets Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine is now at Buffalo and he is very familiar with this New York offensive personnel. Bills Head Coach Marrone completely shut down Geno Smith in two games as the coach at Syracuse. He did so by blitzing often and making him uncomfortable in the pocket. The Bills are only 2-13 SU on the road and despite the late game heroics against Carolina we don't trust a rookie QB to win away from home. The Jets have extra prep time after facing New England on Thursday and they have fared well as of late against the Bills. NY is allowing only 59.5 yards on the ground which puts the pressure on a rookie signal caller to make plays. Neither team has shown much of a passing game so we expect this contest to be played very close to the vest. PLAY UNDER |
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09-22-13 | NY Giants v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
NY Giants v Carolina
It's all come down to turnovers for the Giants who have coughed it up a whopping 10 times in the first two games. Without those turnovers we may look at this New York team in a different light. While the running game could be to blame the Giants haven't been producing many hall of fame caliber runners the last decade. Still with a veteran quarterback in Eli Manning we have a solid edge behind center in this contest. We expect another big offensive performance from the Giants here as the Carolina secondary is a weakness. Opponents are completing 70% of their passes against the Panthers. Carolina, like Pittsburgh is struggling under new offenses. The coaching staff is trying to make Cam Newton a pocket passer. While it likely will extend his career the results have been less than desirable. Newton is better in the open field where he can generate offense by freelancing. The Panthers are passing for just 150 yards per contest which is over 100 yards less than the league average. 0-2 teams playing at home in week 3 have been a money burner over the years as the public thinks they are in a must win situation. In a battle of winless clubs we will back the visitor who has clear edges offensively if they can just take care of the football. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-21-13 | Kent State v. Penn State -21 | Top | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
328 Kent State at Penn State
The Golden Flashes just haven't been a productive offense without key playmaker Dri Archer who was the catalyst for this team last season when they put up 33.1 points per game. He is listed as doubtful for this weekend contest with Penn State, and with MAC play starting fully next week we really can't see head coach Paul Haynes putting him on the field. Before the season we projected the Nittany Lions to be a 21 point favorite here, so in our mind the huge loss of Archer hasn't been factored into the line nearly enough. In two games against FBS competition Kent State is being out gained by 597 total yards. Both Bowling Green and LSU dominated this team with physical play, and being physical defensively is the trademark of Penn State. Kent hasn't shown the ability to run without Archer and Penn State is excellent against the rush allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. That's makes the Golden Flashes one dimensional offensively which is not what you want going against bigger and faster players. FBS average yards per play right now is 5.7. Penn State is averaging 6.6 against Syracuse, Eastern Michigan and Central Florida, while Kent is allowing a whopping 9.3 yards per play, including 6.3 yards per rush. Bill O'Brien and the Nittany Lions were a perfect 4-0 ATS off a straight up loss last year in his initial season. Now playing a team in which they have the physical ability to impose their will on, puts us squarely on the favorite here. PLAY PENN STATE |
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09-14-13 | Georgia Tech -8.5 v. Duke | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 44 h 4 m | Show |
141 Georgia Tech v Duke
An extra week to prepare for Paul Johnson who in our opinion is one of the most underrated coaches in college football. The Yellow Jackets have owned the Blue Devils winning nine straight while doing so by an average of 21 ppg. Johnson is 22-15-2 ATS when put in the favorite role since coming to Atlanta, as he is at his best as a bully. Georgia Tech is a very experienced team with a great amount of returning starts under their belts. The last time Johnson had such a veteran team the Yellow Jackets posted an 11-3 record in 2009. Duke just extended the contract of David Cutcliffe which was well deserved, but this team isn't as good as their 6-7 record from a year ago. The Blue Devils only out gained one opponent last year by more than 100 yards, Memphis, while being out gained by over 90 five times. While they do return 14 starters the three best skill position players have moved on. Losing starting QB Boone to injury last week doesn't help the cause. The last three seasons Duke has permitted 35.4, 31.2 and 36.0 points per game. That's not good news against a Georgia Tech offense that can simply wear you down. The last five meetings has seen Georgia Tech as a double digit favorite each time, Duke hasn't made up enough ground in our eyes for this line to be in this range. Look for another dominating performance from the Yellow Jackets. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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09-07-13 | Miami (OH) +17.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 5 m | Show |
307 Miami Ohio v Kentucky
The Redhawks were beaten in the opener at Marshall but that wasn't much of a surprise to us. We have Marshall as one of the most improved teams in the country, so a dominating home victory didn't come as a shocker. That line opened at 14 1/2 and rose all the way to 20 1/2 at close. But the money did not pour in on the Thundering Herd because of their opponent, it did so because of the massive improvement by Marshall. While Marshall won that game 52-14 on the scoreboard, keep in mind that contest was tied at 14 apiece at the half. Miami Ohio is a middle of the pack MAC team that has a good pedigree of winning. Miami lost star QB Dysert in the off-season but new starting QB Boucher has plenty of experience. The Redhawks were outclassed in the second half last week, but despite facing an SEC squad this week Kentucky is a step down in class. Kentucky is coming off a neutral site loss to up and coming in-state rival Western Kentucky. The Wildcats entered that game in revenge mode for a 32-31 overtime loss to the Hilltoppers last season. Kentucky has another in-state rivalry revenge game on deck against Louisville. So despite the loss this is a major sandwich game for the host. Add in the fact that Kentucky pounded a fellow MAC team Kent State last year and we can see the Wildcats overlooking Miami here. Jalen Whitlow started at quarterback last week but Maxwell Smith came in and sparked the team in the second half. Smith will get the start here for the Wildcats. Smith has the better arm but Whitlow has the better running game. Defensively Kentucky has permitted 27 points or more in 11 of their last 13 games. They are not a team that should be laying this type of number. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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01-05-13 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
265 Pittsburgh vs Mississippi at Birmingham
The Panthers are a lot better team now than early in the season when Cryst was putting in his systems. His staying at Pitt after having other offers means a great deal to these kids who are on their third head coach in three years. In four bowl games in the last four years Pitt has permitted just 58 total points as they have by far the better defense in this contest. Keep in mind that this is a team that took Notre Dame to Triple Overtime on the road. Teams Ole Miss beat this year: Miss State, Arkansas, Auburn, Tulane, UTEP and Central Arkansas. The Rebels beat just one team who made it to a bowl, Miss State who lost by 14 to Northwestern. The SEC has not been impressive thus far in bowl action with Vanderbilt playing the best game out of this renowned conference. The Rebels held just one team all season to less than 20 points as they are at a clear defensive disadvantage. PLAY PITT |
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01-01-13 | Northwestern v. Mississippi State OVER 53 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
249 Northwestern vs Mississippi State in Jacksonville
Both teams played in defensive first conferences yet the offenses for each of these squads is talented. Northwestern put up 21 points or better against every opponent they faced including quality defenses like Vanderbilt, Penn State and Michigan State. Mississippi State allowed 24 points to Troy, 31 to Tennessee and 37 or better to the three best teams they faced in Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. The Bulldogs were stymied offensively against those three elite teams but when stepping down in class they excelled, putting up 27 or more on every other opponent. The last four times out when not facing the Big Three they managed 24 against Mississippi, 45 against Arkansas, 45 vs Middle Tennessee State and 41 against Tennessee. The weather won't be a factor and since both teams went bowling the past two years the players shouldn't come out sluggish. This total is based on games against elite defenses and these two squads don't possess that type of defensive talent. PLAY OVER |
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12-16-12 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
313 Jacksonville at Miami
The Jaguars have one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL and last week they were a 3 point underdog to the Jets. Now this week they are catching over a touchdown to another team with virtually no home field advantage. Take a look at how much better Jacksonville has played on the road this year compared to games in Everbank Field. A 26-23 overtime loss at Minnesota, a 22-17 win at playoff bound Indianapolis, a 26-23 overtime loss to Oakland (a 3 point cover), a 9 point loss at Green Bay (a 6 1/2 point cover), a 43-37 overtime loss at Houston and last time out they laid an egg at Buffalo 34-18. So just once all season has Jacksonville not been competitive on the road. Miami is 0-2 as a home favorite this year and 8-33 ATS in that role since 2003. The last nine times they have been a favorite of over 4 points the Dolphins failed to cover. In 7 of the last 9 games this season Miami has failed to reach 280 total yards of offense. It's tough to lay points in the NFL with a poor scoring unit and expecting to cover a sizable number without moving the football is highly unlikely. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-09-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
118 Atlanta at Carolina
The Falcons have swept the Panthers the past 6 meetings in high scoring affairs. This is a major sandwich game for Atlanta after facing Tampa Bay and New Orleans with the Champion NY Giants on deck. Atlanta's offense hasn't been overly impressive as of late scoring just 23, 24, 23, 27 and 19 the last five contests. The 25 ppg against New Orleans in two meetings the last few weeks in concerning, as the Saints haven't stopped anyone defensively all year. While the records say this is a mismatch it all comes down to how these two have fared in close games. Atlanta is 7-0 in games decided by 7 points or less, while Carolina is 0-7. The Panthers off embarrassing loss to the Chiefs. The last three games Cam Newton has produced yppa numbers of 8.1, 10.3 and 8.1 as the Carolina passing game is finally coming around. The Panthers have a better ypp for and against by .5 yards over Atlanta. They have the better running game for and against by .8 ypr also. Carolina has faced the tougher schedule with an opponent win % of 508 as compared to Atlanta's .412. These two are much closer than the records dictate and after dropping six straight all the motivation is on the host. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-06-12 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
102 Denver at Oakland
Teams that play each other twice in a season know each other through and through. They know what plays they will call and they know what they will run out of every formation. When these teams play on a short week less if any new plays can be put into the game plan. That's exactly why just once all season has an individual Thursday Night Football game gone Over the Total when two divisional rivals go head to head. In that lone contest San Diego and Kansas City totaled 16 combined points heading into the fourth quarter, with a fumble recovery in the end zone, a 59 yard pick six and a garbage touchdown put the game Over the posted total by 3 points. That's the lone divisional game to surpass the total on these stand alone Thursday contests. Not only are these games going Under, but they are doing so by wide margins. Arizona at St Louis -20 points to go under by 17 1/2 Chicago at Green Bay -33 points to go Under by 17 1/2 Cleveland at Baltimore -39 points to go Under by 4 1/2 Indianapolis at Jacksonville -37 points to go Under by 6 1/2 Miami at Buffalo - 33 points to go Under by 13 points New Orleans at Atlanta - 36 points to go Under by 18 1/2 points Seattle at San Francisco -19 points to go Under by 18 1/2 points PLAY UNDER |
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12-01-12 | Texas v. Kansas State -10.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
316 Texas at Kansas State
Huge coaching mismatch here as Mack Brown and his Longhorns end another disappointing year, while Bill Snyder and the Wildcats rebound from its first loss of the season. Texas came out of its bye last week to fall flat on its face at home to TCU and the better coached Horned Frogs. TCU was also off a bye last week which again points to the poor job Mack Brown has done here in Austin. At 8-3 on the year Texas needs a win here and a bowl victory to get back to double digit wins for the first time since 2009. That's simply not going to happen. Kansas State saw it's undefeated season and chance at the National Championship fall by the wayside two weeks ago in Waco. But if any coach can motivate his team off a devastating loss it would be Bill Snyder. His teams are 23-13 ATS off a loss since 2000 and the extra week of preparation assures a focused squad. After allowing 52 points to Baylor you can rest assured the Wildcat defense will be fired up here. To show the coaching mismatch in this series let's take a look at recent history. Last year as an 8 point favorite Texas lost to Kansas State 17-13, the prior year at -3 Texas lost 39-14, the prior meeting as a 14 1/2 point favorite Texas lost 41-21 and in 2006 at -16 Texas lost 45-42. So over the last four meetings despite being favored by a combined 41 1/2 points Texas was beaten outright by 52 points. For those keeping track Kansas State has beaten Texas against the spread by 93 1/2 points in the last four meetings. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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11-29-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
New Orleans at Atlanta
This is a cheap number considering just three weeks ago the Falcons were favored by 1 1/2 in New Orleans. The Saints own victories this year over Atlanta by 4 in a game they were out gained, San Diego by 7 in a game they were out yarded, by 15 over Philadelphia is a game they lost the yardage battle, by 7 at Tampa Bay where they were out gained, and by 21 at Oakland where they again were out gained. New Orleans has lost the yardage battle in all but two games this season. The offense has surpassed 385 yards just once the past five games. Teams who play on Sunday and travel to play on Thursday are at a major disadvantage. While these two teams know each other well the travel situation for New Orleans has to be a concern. Atlanta is looking to avenge it's only loss of the season. In fact, the Falcons have dropped four straight games to the Saints. So while many will point to the Falcons possibly going through the motions here, we feel this has to be a statement game for the host. Since that loss to the Saints in a game in which Atlanta couldn't put the ball in the end zone late, this team has won by four and single point margins. But keep in mind that the Falcons lost the turnover battle in those games by a combined margin of seven and they still found a way to win. Atlanta is one yard away from entering this game undefeated and yet the line is extremely cheap for a Thursday night host. Is it possible the 10-1 Falcons are underrated? We say a resounding yes! PLAY ATLANTA |
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11-24-12 | Indiana +6 v. Purdue | Top | 35-56 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 1 m | Show |
Indiana at Purdue
What a difference two weeks make. Indiana had been riding high having beaten Illinois and Iowa and taken Navy and undefeated Ohio State to the wire. Purdue on the other hand had lost five straight games. But in the last two weeks the Hoosiers lost badly to physical squads Wisconsin and Penn State while Purdue edged Iowa and Illinois. Had the timing of these games been reversed the Hoosiers would likely be a pick here instead of a 6 point underdog. Keep in mind that Indiana beat Illinois and Iowa themselves by 17 combined points while the Boilermakers won by 6 against those two squads. Both teams were blown out by Wisconsin and each took Ohio State to the wire. So in reality these two teams are a carbon copy of each other against similar opponents. So the question to be asked is why are the Boilermakers a substantial favorite? We have found out by watching these two programs that Indiana struggles when playing physical opposition that can dominate them in the trenches. But that's just not the type of team Purdue has. They are more like the Hoosiers in their playing style. We have been very impressed by the job Kevin Wilson has done this year in Bloomington, as this team is unfamiliar with the word quit. After dropping three of the last four meetings Indiana has something to prove here. PLAY INDIANA |
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11-23-12 | Syracuse v. Temple OVER 56.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 18 m | Show |
119 Syracuse at Temple
The Orangemen are already bowl eligible so this game doesn't have any real significance. Over the last month they beat South Florida and Missouri in last second comebacks and knocked Louisville from the unbeaten ranks. This game will be played without any pressure. The last five games they have put up 31, 45, 24, 37 and 40 points as the offense is really clicking. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Syracuse. Temple has permitted 9.8, 11.6, 10.2 and 11.5 yppa the last four games, which is not a good sign against this aggressive Syracuse passing game. Over the last five contests the Owls have given up 32, 34, 45, 47 and 35 points. With this being the last game of the season for Temple we expect a wide open no holds barred offensive game. Similar to last week when the Owls let it all hang out against Army, we expect plenty of points to be scored. PLAY OVER |
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11-14-12 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -10.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
304 Toledo at Northern Illinois
The Rockets sit just one game behind Northern Illinois in the conference standings, but the truth is Toledo isn't in the same ballpark when it comes to talent. These two clubs have faced four of the same opponents this year, Central Michigan, Ball State, Buffalo and Western Michigan. Each team played twice on the road and twice at home. Northern Illinois has outscored these opponents 183-84. Toledo holds a 139-106 scoring margin. Northern Illinois has a full three extra days to prepare and are on a 13-6-1 spread run as home favorites, 11-3 ATS as conference home favorites. Northern Illinois has lost just once all season against the spread and that came by just two points against Army in a game with a -3 turnover differential. We've been riding the Huskies all season long as they continue to be underrated in the marketplace. That won't be the case after this nationally televised win. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-11-12 | Detroit Lions -2 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 16 m | Show |
229 Detroit at Minnesota
The Lions took a little more action today which tells us that Percy Harvin isn't likely to play for the Vikings. He's the sole offensive playmaker for Minnesota other than Adrian Peterson, and now Detroit can stack the line for the run knowing Ponder has no ability to beat them. The more the Vikings play the more the opposition can game plan for this one-dimensional offense. Detroit had beaten the Vikings three straight times before a 20-13 defeat earlier this season. That put the Lions at 1-3 on the year but they have played much better as of late. Wins in 3 of the last 4 games with the lone defeat coming at Chicago by 6 points, in a game they lost the turnover battle by four. At 4-4 on the season and with divisional losses to Chicago and Minnesota this is a must win game for Detroit. PLAY DETROIT |
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11-10-12 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -3 | Top | 27-26 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 14 m | Show |
132 Vanderbilt at Mississippi
Vanderbilt has gotten a great deal of publicity after beating two bad teams the last two weeks. A 49-7 win over UMass and a 40-0 victory over Kentucky. But keep in mind this is the same team who lost to Georgia by 45 and struggled to beat Auburn at home 17-13 three weeks ago. Vandy is a very good defensive team but they have yet to score over 19 points against even an average opponent. Mississippi was pounded by the Volunteers each of the last two years but the Rebels are a much better team this season. Ole Miss is 5-3 on the year after winning two and four games each of the last two seasons. With five victories the Rebels can become bowl eligible with a victory here and considering they have LSU and Mississippi State on deck you know they will be fully focused. Vandy is also on the verge of bowl eligibility but they have a much easier path to end the season with in-state rival Tennessee next week followed by Wake Forest. Mississippi needs this game and they have a score to settle with the Volunteers. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-04-12 | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 25-15 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
421 Baltimore at Cleveland
Ravens have owned the Browns having won 9 straight games by six points or more. In the earlier meeting Baltimore had just played on Sunday Night Football looking for playoff revenge against the Patriots, and in a Thursday Night Football contest they still beat Cleveland by 7 with a 71 yard advantage. Now off a blowout loss to Houston and with an extra week to prepare we expect the Ravens to win this one comfortably. No lookahead next week as they host Oakland. Cleveland is off a win over San Diego and has a bye on deck. Teams going into the bye have been a terrible proposition all season. The new collective bargaining agreement guarantees four days off, therefore players are planning short vacations with their families. Not a good mental preparation week for Cleveland. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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11-03-12 | Western Michigan -2.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
367 Western Michigan at Central Michigan
Big drop in quality of opposition here for the Broncos who just lost in overtime at Ball State, by 17 at Kent State and by 14 hosting Northern Illinois. That's a very tough schedule as only Ohio U, Toledo and Bowling Green are of the same quality as those three foes. Now Western Michigan finishes the season with three beatable opponents in the Chippewas, Buffalo and Eastern Michigan. The Broncos had lost five straight games in this series before crushing Central Michigan last year in Kalamazoo 44-14. They won that game by 30 points without having any type of turnover edge. This team has stepped up this year when dropping down in class so they are a hidden gem in the betting markets. They lost to Toledo, Ball State, Kent State and Northern Illinois but crushed UMass 52-14. Central Michigan got back into the win column last week as they pulled away from Akron 35-14. But the Zips are not a very deep team and the long season has started to take a toll. The Chippewas have one of the lowest home field advantages in college football as they have gone 1-3 ATS here in 2010, 1-4 ATS here last year and just 1-4 ATS at home in 2012. They also have lost 23 of their last 28 overall games against the spread. Keep in mind that this program was 12-2 in 2009 before Dan Enos took over. They haven't won more than three games in any year since. We get the better team dropping down in class off three straight losses. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-28-12 | Carolina Panthers +9 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
233 Carolina at Chicago
The Carolina Panthers are like a virus right now that nobody wants any part of. That's exactly why there is a great deal of value on this team. ESPN is blowing up the whole bad attitude of Cam Newton story, while in truth the kid just wants to win and he's never been in this situation before. With Carolina at 1-5 on the season and with their backs to the wall we know what type of effort we will get from this club on Sunday. Keep in mind that only once all season have they lost by more than 6 points and that was the nationally televised game against the Giants in which New York had four key players ruled out before the game. Carolina is a young team that came into that contest overconfident and it bit them badly as the veteran Giants rallied around the fallen teammates. Now it's Carolina in the rallying role as Newton has taken a major media hit. Chicago is 5-1 on the season and has won four straight games by a combined margin of 111-34. They are off a satisfying Monday Night Football win over division rival Detroit with Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games on deck in the next few weeks. Chicago beat Carolina each of the last two seasons and they are likely to treat this game as a foregone conclusion. While Carolina is getting criticized by the media this week the signal caller for the Bears has long been in the same boat. Do we really expect Cutler and the Bears to outgrow their well known personality of team infighting? Sure Chicago is living the high life right now but we all know what's right around the corner. There is no way the Bears have the same intensity here as the Panthers, and these two teams are far closer in talent than the line indicates. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-27-12 | Ohio v. Miami (OH) +7 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 34 m | Show |
116 Ohio U at Miami Ohio
The Bobcats are coming out of their bye at 7-0 on the season and a first ever ranking in the BCS Standings coming in at #24. While Ohio has remained undefeated they have struggled to win by margins. Beating Marshall by 3, Massachusetts by 3, Buffalo by 7 and Akron by 6. This is a team that has suffered all season long with injuries and despite the bye week the troops are not getting any healthier. Ohio has beaten Miami six straight times and they have nationally televised games the next two weeks against Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green. In three MAC games this season Ohio U has failed to cover the number by a combined 39 1/2 points. So despite a lofty national ranking and an undefeated record this Ohio team is a step down from previous editions. Miami is also coming off a bye but unlike Ohio U they entered the bye off two blowout losses to Cincinnati and Bowling Green. Angry teams with an extra week to prepare are always dangerous, especially knowing they have lost six straight games in this series. With Ohio U having a game this upcoming Thursday and Miami not playing again until Saturday we know which team will be fully focused here. Miami has won 5 of their last 6 games in Yager Stadium straight up with the only loss being a 24-21 defeat to Western Michigan last season. With a 3-4 record on the year this is a must win game for the host. Ohio has shown no reason to be laying a touchdown to the Redhawks here as we expect this one to be decided in the closing minutes. PLAU MIAMI OHIO |
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10-26-12 | Cincinnati +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 3 m | Show |
107 Cincinnati at Louisville
The Bearcats are coming off their first loss on the season last week at Toledo but the final score was not indicative as to how the game was played. Toledo scored 29 points but their only two touchdowns were on special teams and interception scores. Cincinnati dominated in yardage and lost with a negative turnover differential. Because of that outcome we have an extremely motivated underdog here who has won the last four meetings in this rivalry. The Bearcats came out of their bye with a solid victory over Virginia Tech before blowing out in-state rival Miami Ohio. They then crushed Fordham before possibly looking past the Rockets last week. With only Syracuse and Temple on the horizon this is the game the Bearcats have circled, especially since the Cardinals enter play undefeated. Louisville has beaten just a single team with a winning record, North Carolina, and they almost blew a huge lead in that contest. Louisville is 7-0 on the season but even in victory they have been less than impressive. A 28-21 win at Florida International when the Panthers QB didn't play the entire game, a 21-17 win at Southern Miss who has been a disaster this season, and last week they needed a late rally to beat South Florida 27-25, a Bulls team that had gone 3-12-1 ATS in conference the previous 16 Big East games. Louisville hasn't had a winning spread record at Papa John's Stadium in any year since 2006 and they lost by exactly eight points each of the last two times hosting Cincinnati. The wrong team is favored here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-14-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Houston Texans -3 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -130 | 82 h 46 m | Show |
232 Green Bay at Houston
This line is simply absurd. Does anyone really think these two teams are comparable? With the line currently in the 3 1/2 to 4 range the betting markets are saying the Texans are about a single point better than the Packers. Green Bay has outscored the opposition by just one point this year despite playing 3 of 5 games at home. Sure they should have beaten Seattle but that score isn't going to change. To put yourself in that position in the first place tells us this Packer squad has taken a major drop from a year ago. They can't protect the quarterback and the defense has permitted 474 and 464 yards the last two weeks to teams who have a combined three victories. The last three times Green Bay took to the road they lost at Kansas City, Seattle and Indianapolis, three much weaker squads than they will face on Sunday. As opposed to Green Bay, Houston has outscored the opposition by a combined 76 points despite playing 3 of 5 games on the road. The Texans are on a 12-3 ATS run while the Packers are 1-4 against the spread this season. Sure the loss of Cushing will hurt but teams rebound nicely the first week after losing a key player. The Texans went through the motions Monday night in a game they knew would be a victory. This game against a 15-1 squad from last year is a statement game for the Texans. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-13-12 | North Carolina -5 v. Miami (Florida) | Top | 18-14 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 54 m | Show |
115 North Carolina at Miami Florida
Ever since the second half of the Louisville game this has been a totally different Tar Heels squad. Over the last 14 quarters North Carolina has outscored the opposition 168 to 43. They did so against Louisville, East Carolina, Idaho and Virginia Tech. This is a team that is peaking right now and they look for triple revenge this week against Miami. The only reason this line hasn't skyrocketed is because the Tar Heels are 0-2 on the road this year losing to Wake Forest by a single point and Louisville by 5. Larry Fedora is doing a hell of a job here in his first season. Miami enters play at 4-2 on the year but they have to be the least impressive 4-2 squad in the country. The four wins were against Boston College who has yet to beat an FBS squad, Bethune Cookman, Georgia Tech who's lone FBS win was against Virginia, and NC State where they used a whopping +5 turnover margin to cover a game by just 5 points. This is not a good football team by any measure. The Hurricanes have permitted 32, 52, 36, 37 and 41 points to every FBS team they have faced this season. The defense of Notre Dame completely shut them down last week and North Carolina's stop unit should have the same success. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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10-11-12 | Arizona State v. Colorado +23 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 5 m | Show |
104 Arizona State at Colorado
Arizona State has been terrific thus far with their only loss coming at Missouri. The traveling fool Todd Graham has really gotten this team off to an impressive start. But after playing Utah and California, with a huge game on deck next Thursday hosting Oregon this is definitely a flat spot on the schedule for the Sun Devils. After all, they pounded Colorado last year 48-14 as the Buffaloes were making their debut season in the PAC 12. While Arizona State has bigger fish to fry this is the biggest game of the year for Colorado. At 1-4 on the season and no bowl game in their future it's a rare nationally televised appearance for the host. Home teams traditionally do well in these early week affairs and Colorado has played much more competitively as of late. The Buffaloes also have an edge with the high altitude here as Arizona State is a team that likes to push the pace. Weather could also be somewhat a concern as the temperatures are expected to reach the low 40's tonight, a major difference from what the Sun Devils are used to. With the public backing the road favorite at 76% it's time to step in and take the points with the ugly dog. PLAY COLORADO |
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09-30-12 | Oakland Raiders +7 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 6-37 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 34 m | Show |
221 Oakland at Denver
Now that we are seeing 7's on the board it's time to step in and take the best road divisional team in football. Despite many different head coaches the Oakland Raiders continue to cover the number against divisional foes as a road underdog. The last six years alone Oakland is 16-2 ATS on the road against teams in the AFC West. The last three years they are a perfect 9-0 ATS and they have been covering by margins. Here is a recent listing of the Men In Black when traveling to the Mile High City: 23-20 Oakland as a 3 point underdog, 59-14 Raiders as a 7 point dog, 20-19 Raiders as a 14 point dog, 31-10 Oakland as an 8 1/2 point dog and 23-20 Denver as a 10 point underdog. That's 4-1 straight up all as a dog, covering the number by a combined 109 1/2 points! Oakland started the year poorly under new head coach Dennis Allen. They lost to the Chargers 22-14 because of poor special teams play. They out gained San Diego 321-258. They had to travel cross-country for an early start in Miami and the Dolphins rolled them 35-13. They only lost the yardage battle in that game 452-396 and Miami is a brutal place to play in the dead of summer. Black uniforms did not help the Raiders in the least. Last week they outlasted a very good Pittsburgh team in a spot when we were one of the very few willing to back the host. Denver to their credit have played a very tough schedule with games against Pittsburgh and Houston at home and Atlanta on the road. Because they played high profile teams they had been in the national spotlight. What did we learn from viewing the Broncos? The offense still has a long way to go under Peyton Manning as he has clearly lost some arm strength. His accuracy is still there but the ball takes longer to get there and the throws do not have the typical tight spiral. Defensively Denver is a poor tackling team that will continue to be revealed with more time on the field. Last year the defense wasn't exposed because the goal of the offense was to burn clock and run the ball. That's not the case this year. With a 1-2 record many look at this game as a must win for the Broncos with road games at New England and San Diego on deck. But keep in mind that good teams shouldn't have must win games because they shouldn't be in that position. We haven't seen enough positives out of Denver to back them as a favorite of any kind, especially against a confident team off a big win who won't be intimidated by their surroundings. By the way, Denver is now 20-40-4 ATS as a home favorite since 2002. PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-29-12 | Miami (OH) v. Akron +6 | Top | 56-49 | Loss | -109 | 123 h 25 m | Show |
164 Miami Ohio at Akron
The betting public has been extremely slow to react to the recent play of both these teams. Miami is 2-2 on the season but they still haven't covered a spread, losing to the line by a combined 39 1/2 points. They opened the season losing to Ohio State 56-10. We've seen how the Buckeyes have struggled at home the last two weeks against Cal and UAB. The Redhawks then lost 39-12 at Boise State, the same Bronco team that was thoroughly outplayed at Michigan State and struggled at home to BYU. Michigan State has since been a major disappointment, even losing at halftime Saturday hosting Eastern Michigan. Boise hasn't scored an offensive touchdown against anyone not wearing a Miami Ohio jersey. Akron turned the ball over four times deep in their own territory against Central Florida in their opener. Other than the turnovers they played the Knights even. The following week they took Florida International to overtime on the road, the same Panthers team that took nationally ranked Louisville to the wire last week. Akron trailed Tennessee by just 3 points in the fourth quarter in Knoxville. They lost the turnover battle and still covered the number by double digits. QB Williams who was tied for second in the nation in touchdowns before the game didn't record a TD and yet the Zips played even with a good SEC team on the road through three quarters. The wrong team is favored here. PLAY AKRON |
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09-29-12 | Duke +3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 47 m | Show |
131 Duke at Wake Forest
The Blue Devils are looking to end a 12 game losing streak to the Demon Deacons on Saturday. But unlike past seasons Duke is the better squad in this match-up. The Blue Devils are 3-1 and a win here could put them in a pretty solid spot to break the long winless season and bowl appearance streaks. Duke's only loss came to Stanford as they had to travel cross country to take on a very good Cardinal squad. Duke pulled off something you rarely see last week when they won the game and covered the spread despite a negative 4 turnover ratio against Memphis. Teams that are able to cover despite losing the turnover battle are teams we pay special attention to, and Duke has covered 3 of 4 games with a seasonal turnover margin of minus 4. While Wake Forest has that long winning streak in this series keep in mind 5 of the last 6 meetings have been decided by six points or less. Wake also sits at 3-1 on the season but they are 2-2 ATS despite winning the turnover battle in each and every game. They lost to Florida State by 52 and struggled to beat Liberty at home in a 20-17 victory. Wake Forest hasn't lost a fumble all season which just shows how fortunate this team has been. Last week coach Grobe and company had to prepare for the Army rushing attack and now this week they face the Duke aerial assault. That's quite a change in just one week and they struggled to stop the Black Knights last Saturday. After allowing 89 combined points the last two weeks they may get their best defender back, but even with his addition Wake Forest has serious defensive concerns. Duke led this game last year late until Wake scored the final touchdown, we look for the Blue Devils to get over than hump this time around. PLAY DUKE |
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09-17-12 | Denver Broncos v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Denver at Atlanta
The Broncos looked good against the Steelers opening week which is why this game remains at the key number of 3. But that had more to do with Pittsburgh missing 2 of their top 3 defensive players. Manning behind center is an upgrade but it also means the Bronco defense will be on the field for many more plays than a season ago. Last year Denver ran the ball and took time off the clock, therefore keeping the defense off the field. Now with Manning the offense has more quick strike ability but the defense will be tested. If you watched the opener if was clear that Denver does not tackle well. It didn't matter against a banged up Pittsburgh team but it will tonight. Atlanta is moving to more of a quick strike offense that will wear out opposing defenses. While Denver does practice in the high altitude they don't have the defensive weapons to slow down a very talented Atlanta squad. The Falcons have the skill position talent to put pressure on this questionable Denver stop unit and we expect the host to light up the scoreboard. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-16-12 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
Kansas City at Buffalo
We were holding off on this one thinking we could grab a +3 1/2 but that's unlikely to happen now. Kansas City has been consistently the better team the last two seasons winning 17 games entering the year. Last week they were without key contributors and dropped a 40-24 decision to the Falcons. But even in defeat they held a 393 to 376 yardage edge. It was a -3 turnover situation that cost the Chiefs a week ago. Kansas City is much healthier for Sundays game and they come in with a bit of revenge having been blowout by the Bills in last years opener 41-7. Buffalo isn't on a very good streak right now. Counting the preseason they have now lost 13 of the last 14 games in which they have played. We are a big proponent of teams that take care of the football and the Bills are a complete go-against in that regard. In 2010 they ended the season with a -17 turnover margin and finished the year with just 4 victories. Last year they had a +18 turnover improvement and still managed to win just two more games. In the opener against the Jets they lost the turnover battle 4 to 1. We simply want no part of this team right now laying points. Buffalo was 1-5 ATS last season when favored which is something you would expect from a careless team. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-15-12 | Utah State v. Wisconsin -13 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -105 | 61 h 47 m | Show |
164 Utah State at Wisconsin
Terrible scheduling spot here for the Aggies who are off quite possibly the biggest win in the programs history. The coaches and players talked about facing Utah in Romney Stadium last week on National Television, and it was clearly a circled game. Now they must regroup and travel to Wisconsin before looking for double overtime loss revenge next week against Colorado State. Utah State has fared well as of late when stepping up in class, but all of their opponents had bigger fish to fry and overlooked the Aggies. Last year they went to Auburn after the Tigers were coming off an undefeated National Championship season. Auburn had major off-season losses and had a conference game against Mississippi State on deck. Last week Utah clearly took this team for granted and it showed early on that the Utes would be in for a game. Utah has their big rivalry showdown with BYU this week. With Wisconsin off a bad showing last week at Oregon State they will not take Utah State for granted. Wisconsin beat a very good Northern Iowa team opening weekend. While the final score was 26-21 the Badgers were clearly in command until getting their depth involved. Last week Wisconsin produced just 7 points at Oregon State, but it's a well known fact the Big 10 struggles when traveling to the west coast. Both Nebraska and Illinois were in the same situation last week. Despite the Utah State showing last week these two programs are on clearly different levels. Wisconsin was 6-1 ATS as a home favorite last year and they have produced just one losing season in that role the past eight years. The Badgers fired their offensive line coach which has been the major offensive problem for this team. Keep in mind that when it comes to offensive line play you would be hard pressed to find a college football team with more offensive line success than this team. Just look at all the draft choices from that position playing in the NFL. We knew Wisconsin would struggle the first two weeks losing an NFL drafted quarterback and traveling west to face a quality opponent in Oregon State. Now we take advantage of a cheap line and pound the clearly more talented and motivated squad. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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09-15-12 | Western Kentucky +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
191 Western Kentucky at Kentucky
Wanted to wait on this for something more than 7 to show up again but it doesn't look like that will be the case. Last week we backed the Wildcats as a cheap home favorite over Kent State and Kentucky pulled away in the second half for an easy point spread cover. But Kent State played Kentucky even through much of that game and we don't think much of the Golden Flashes. In watching the contest it was clear than Kentucky will be a bottom feeder in the SEC this season. But the good news is since they fared so well on the scoreboard we have a similar number here against a far superior team than the one they faced a week ago. Kentucky beat the Hilltoppers 62-28 in 2010 and 14-3 last year so with SEC action starting next week we know which of the two teams will be more motivated here. Western Kentucky handled themselves very well against Alabama last week as Willie Taggart has done a wonderful job in Bowling Green after taking over a winless squad in 2010. Last year Western Kentucky had a winning record and produced a 10-2 spread mark. The Hilltoppers have continued in that cashing vein with ATS wins the first two weeks of the season. Taggart is now 9-3 ATS as a road dog since taking over the reigns and this game means much more to his squad than Kentucky. In last years contest WKU held the Wildcats to 190 total yards of offense and covered the spread by 5 1/2 points despite losing the turnover battle. Now with 16 returning starters we fully expect the outright underdog win. PLAY WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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09-13-12 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers OVER 51 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
Chicago at Green Bay
Scoring was up in the preseason and it continued through the opening week with an average of 48 1/2 points being scored. There has been some speculation that holding isn't being called enough by the replacement officials which gives a huge edge to offenses and offensive lines. With passing games taking advantage we will once again look for another preponderance of Overs in week 2 action. Last week Chicago put up 428 yards of offense, a number surpassed just once all last season for the Bears. Jay Cutler is healthy and he has a better receiving corps this season. Defensively the Rams fared well against Chicago last week producing 356 total yards despite a negative 4 turnover margin. Green Bay had just 324 total yards of offense against the Niners a week ago. Only once all season last year did they perform worse. In the game following those offensive struggles Green Bay put up 35 points against this Chicago defense in a 35-21 victory. The Packers are known for their offense and when they suffer a loss they rebound very well offensively. Here are the point totals in Green Bay games off a loss the last few years when not having a bye the following week: 56, 54, 43, 52, 50, 58, 62, 53, 66, 24 and 58 points. Overall 9 of those 11 games went Over the closing total. With the Green Bay defense still struggling and the Packer running game remaining a problem we look for Aaron Rodgers to air it out on a regular basis. PLAY OVER |
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09-09-12 | New England Patriots v. Tennessee Titans +6 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
462 New England at Tennessee
Maybe we are late to the party with this one as the line has gone down from the opener, but we can't seem to feel the Titans are the right side here. Besides we want to get this one out before the line drops down to 4. There are many small sample size historical reasons to go against New England including the Super Bowl loser angle. But the truth of the matter is that we think this Tennessee team is undervalued. Other than the Cleveland Browns who very likely are the worst team in the league, the Titans are the next biggest home underdog on the Sunday card. Tennessee has been a 67% play as a home dog the last four seasons and they have a larger home field advantage against non-divisional foes. This is a team that's traditionally an afterthought in the public eye despite a 36-29 SU record the past four seasons. Tennessee also has embarrassing revenge as the last time they faced the Patriots New England won 59-0 in 2009. While many of the players have come and gone, it still leaves a bad taste in the mouths of those who remain. New England is an excellent team but backing road favorites of more than a field goal is always risky, especially in the early part of the season. Late in the year teams throw in the towel which makes the better teams a stronger play, but not early in the season when playoff dreams fill the heads of most of the players. Tennessee finished the year with a 9-7 record a season ago yet they failed to make the playoffs. Ticket counts on this game are overwhelmingly on the New England side yet the line continues to go down. A strong indicator that we are on the right side here. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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09-08-12 | Akron v. Florida International OVER 53.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 77 h 6 m | Show |
379 Akron at Florida International
The Zips have a new coaching staff led by Terry Bowden who came to fame at Auburn and being the son of Bobby Bowden. The rotund coach wants to speed up the game and keep the ball in the air. They did just that against Central Florida producing 81 plays while the Zips averaged just 66 snaps a year ago. New signal caller Dalton Williams looks to be a major upgrade at the quarterback position from a year ago as Clayton Moore was a fill-in at best behind center. The numbers won't show it because of many dropped passes but Williams really impressed in his first game at Akron. Defensively the Zips are very small along the line and Central Florida just handed the ball off with great success. Akron allowed 4.9 yards per carry a season ago and the Knights pounded the Zips for 4.5 ypc last week. We look for more of the same from a Florida International team that ran the ball for 4.0 and 4.7 ypc the last two seasons. Mario Cristobal has done a great job at Florida International since taking over an 0-12 team in 2007. Last year the Panthers went 8-5 and participated in a bowl game. His team took a major jump defensively a year ago going from 27.3 ppg allowed to 19.5. Despite returning 10 starters to that side of the field they are bound for some regression. Akron has been a sieve defensively on the road as of late allowing 68, 51, 35, 31, 59, 42, 37, 30 and 38 points the last nine away from home. In fact, the Zips have permitted 27 points or more in 15 straight road games. Last year FIU won 27-17 in Akron but the Zips have a far more dynamic offense this year, and the plays will be coming fast and furious. More plays equal more scoring opportunities and we want to get ahead of the crowd early as we expect Akron's totals to skyrocket. PLAY OVER |
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09-08-12 | Purdue +14.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 27 m | Show |
335 Purdue at Notre Dame
Everything we have read coming out of West Lafayette this year has been a positive. At the Big 10 media day coach Hope went out of his way to spread the word on how much he liked this 2012 Purdue squad. The team has two experienced signal callers and the offense returns 8 starters. Last week the Boilermakers dominated a nationally ranked FCS team as they beat Eastern Kentucky 48-6. That was done despite losing the turnover battle. The Irish are coming off a game in Ireland where 35,000 Notre Dame faithful made the trip. They were rewarded with a 50-10 win over Navy. While the Irish looked impressive keep in mind they had all off-season to prepare for the Navy option. That's a huge edge that cannot be ignored. Now they must travel all the way back to South Bend to play another game just 7 days later. Notre Dame has beaten Purdue four straight years including a 28 point win last season. With Michigan State on deck it's quite possible the Irish will overlook the Boilermakers. Notre Dame has lost 4 of the last 7 games against Michigan State and they know a win over the Spartans will put them back on the map after not winning more than 8 games in any season since 2006. The Irish haven't posted a winning home spread mark since 2002. As a home favorite they stand just 15-28-2 the last 9 seasons. In the last 5 years Notre Dame is 23-26 straight up against BCS automatic qualifying entrants. They are not deserving of being this type of favorite against a quality Big 10 opponent. PLAY PURDUE |
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01-14-12 | New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers +4 | Top | 32-36 | Win | 100 | 97 h 16 m | Show |
New Orleans at San Francisco
The Saints went 5-3 straight up on the road this season with 2 of the 3 losses to St Louis and Tampa Bay, two of the worst teams in football. They own victories over Jacksonville, Carolina, Tennessee, Minnesota and Atlanta. Only Tennessee and Atlanta posted winning records at 9-7 and 10-6 respectively. The Saints beat Tennessee by 5 as a 3 1/2 point favorite and won in Atlanta in overtime as a 1 point underdog. In games against playoff teams on the road they were outscored 65-60 by Green Bay and Atlanta. So why is this team a road favorite of more than a field goal against a rested 13-3 49ers team? San Francisco has not lost a home game by more than 3 points the last 10 contests. The lone outright loss came in overtime in week two against Dallas. The 49ers faced four teams this year that reached the playoffs going 3-1 straight up and ATS. The only loss was back on Thanksgiving when they traveled cross country in a short week to play Baltimore. This is a team that won at Detroit, covering the number by 11. Beat the NY Giants, covering the number by 3, and crushed the Pittsburgh Steelers, covering the number by 14. Only once in 28 years has there been a home dog in this round of the playoffs and that team won the game outright. The Saints are a high scoring team that has done all their damage at home this year, on the road they are a mediocre team that played a schedule producing a combined record of 20 games below .500, and that included the 15-1 Green Bay Packers. Only 3 of the 8 teams they faced on the road produced more than 6 wins. We will back the under the radar 49ers playing in a very tough environment. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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01-02-12 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Oregon | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
Wisconsin & Oregon at Pasadena
The Big 10 Conference is considered a big bruising collection which lacks team speed. That may have been the case in the past but that's no longer. These teams have emphasized speed the last few seasons expanding their recruiting to the south and west. The Wisconsin team has been working the hurry up offense in practice trying to replicate the pace and speed of the Ducks. The Badgers have been one of the strongest defensive teams in the country with little fanfare. They have held all but two opponents to 17 points or less all season. Wisconsin is also a team that has been favored by a touchdown or more in every game this season and are now an underdog for the first time all season. The last four times Wisconsin took points they covered the number with the only straight up loss coming by 2 points. Oregon is a highly athletic offense but they can be beaten with extra time to prepare. The Ducks lost straight up and against the spread the last two bowl games and they were beaten in the opener this year when LSU had extra time to prepare. As a whole no league has fared worse this bowl season than the PAC 12 which has failed to cover the number by a combined 27 1/2 points thus far with the lone win coming by Utah in overtime. In what we expect to be a lower scoring game than projected we look for the Badger defense to be the difference maker. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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12-31-11 | Utah +3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
Utah at Georgia Tech
Paul Johnson has had a great deal of success in his four years in Atlanta. His option offense is tough to get ready for with only a week of preparation. But with extra time to prepare opponents have had a lot of success against him. In his first three seasons at Georgia Tech his offenses averaged 26.0, 33.8 and 24.4 points heading into bowl season. In the bowl games the Yellow Jackets were held to 7, 14 and 3 points, losing to the spread by a combined 59 1/2 points. Things could be even worse for Georgia Tech this season. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is very familiar with this offense considering he had to face Air Force every year in the Mountain West Conference. The last five years his teams have held Air Force to 23, 16, 23, 20 and 14 points. Winning 4 of those 5 games in straight up fashion. Now in the PAC 12 his team plays a higher quality opponent on a weekly basis and he will have his team fully prepared for Georgia Tech. Since coming to Salt Lake City Whittingham is 5-2 ATS in bowl action off a rare straight up loss last year to Boise State. That defeat broke a nine game straight up winning streak for the Utes in the bowls. A new streak starts on Saturday. PLAY UTAH |
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