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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-11 | Iowa +14 v. Oklahoma | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
Iowa State & Oklahoma at Tempe
The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in bowl action since Kirk Ferentz took over in Iowa City. Only once were they beaten by more than 7 points and that was way back in 2002. They are 6-1 ATS catching points in the bowls. Off a mediocre 7-5 regular season this is actually a reward for the 30 Hawkeye seniors. Starting running back Marcus Coker has been suspended but the Hawkeyes recruit talented rushers who just need to a chance. One year ago Coker was thrust into the same scenario and he took advantage of it. Oklahoma is a team used to playing in much more prestigious bowl games than one before the new year. They at one time were one of the top ranked teams in the country before losing extremely talented skill position players. Now instead of playing in a BCS Bowl they are forced to go to Tempe and face a middle of the road Big 10 squad. In 13 years in Norman Bob Stoops is 4-8 ATS in bowl action. As a favorite the Sooners are 1-6 ATS including four outright losses. Oklahoma has the superior talent in this game but what is their motivation? The last 11 years they played against Top 25 opposition in every bowl game, now they take on the 7-5 Hawkeyes. The Sooners are coming off a rare bowl win as they beat UConn last year 48-20 as a 14 1/2 point favorite. We can't expect the same enthusiasm this year from a program that had much higher preseason expectations. PLAY IOWA |
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12-29-11 | Washington +9.5 v. Baylor | Top | 56-67 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
Washington & Baylor at San Antonio
The venue slightly favors the in-state Bears but this line in our opinion is way overpriced. Baylor is a high scoring team with the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback. They are bound to be overvalued here. We all know about the Heisman jinx but what is being overlooked is how bad this Baylor defense is. Every FBS opponent they faced this season put up at least 24 points against them and that includes Rice and Kansas. In games away from Waco the Bears went 1-4 ATS with a one point win at Kansas and blowout losses at Texas A&M by 27 and Oklahoma State by 35. Since Art Briles took over the program this team is 6-17 ATS away from home. There were only 11 teams in the FBS this season that had winning spread records in games they lost the turnover battle, Washington was one of those teams. Squads able to cover spreads with a turnover disadvantage are teams we want to back. While Robert Griffin III was roaming the country celebrating his player of the year award Steve Sarkisian and his troops were home preparing for the Bears. Washington won't be intimidated by this Baylor offense as they faced Stanford, Oregon and USC in conference play. The PAC 12 has fared much better than the Big 12 the last five seasons in bowl play, and we look for that trend to continue. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-26-11 | Atlanta Falcons +7 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 16-45 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
Atlanta at New Orleans
Now that this game has hit 7 points we are going to jump in on the underdog Falcons. The first meeting this season resulted in a 26-23 overtime win for the Saints. The last four meetings in this series have resulted in 3 point margins with Atlanta producing a 14-5 historical ATS mark in New Orleans. Because the Falcons also play in a dome the Saints home field advantage is lessoned. Atlanta is 18-12 ATS as road dogs the past six seasons and they own a defense that has held the opposition in check on a regular basis. In regulation play the Falcons have allowed just 14, 23, 17, 14, 17, 23, 7, 16 and 17 points the past nine games. New Orleans is a very public team that scores a lot of points and is undefeated SU & ATS at home this year. So you are getting no value in backing the Saints. Keep in mind that until this year New Orleans had just one winning season as a home favorite the prior seven years. In looking over recent history between these two squads it's obvious that the Falcons have held this explosive offense in check. In regulation the Saints have managed 23, 17, 24 and 26 points the last four meetings. It's tough to cover a touchdown spread when you are held below your season to date stats. We will grab the points with the Falcons in a game that likely comes down to the final possession. PLAY ATLANTA |
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12-24-11 | Nevada +7.5 v. Southern Mississippi | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
Nevada & Southern Miss at Honolulu
Now that the line has surpassed the touchdown margin it's time to step in on the Wolf Pack of Nevada. Just 1-5 ATS in bowl action the Wolf Pack are being undervalued in our minds in a very winnable game for Nevada. They are very familiar with the surroundings having played in the Hawaii Bowl 2 of the last 6 seasons. They also have traveled to Hawaii every other year in WAC play. Even though they have struggled ATS in bowl action this is by far their biggest underdog spread. They were a 3 1/2 point dog against Miami Florida in 2006 and lost that game by a single point. Nevada has only two losses by more than four points all season and those defeats were to Oregon and Boise State, two teams head and shoulders better than either of these participants. In fact, Nevada has stayed within this current spread in 23 of their last 25 games. Larry Fedora took the head coaching job at North Carolina yet he will remain here as the head man for the bowl game. Fedora selected the Hawaii Bowl as a reward for his players before he decided to abandon ship and head to North Carolina. His coaching this game is a negative for this program as the players already know who the new coach will be and they don't need to listen to the person who abandoned them. Word out of Hattiesburg is the team didn't necessarily want to go to this location. In fact, the Southern Miss program will actually lose money because of all the travel costs. Much has been made about the lack of ticket sales from the Wolf pack fans. But with comps there will actually be more Nevada fans here than Southern Miss faithful. And you know the local fans will support the WAC against Conference USA. Southern Miss was a good team this season that played an extremely easy schedule. The only quality opposition they faced were Louisiana Tech, Virginia and Houston. We agree they should be a slight favorite here but nothing close to this current spread of over a touchdown. In the last four years the Golden Eagles haven't won their bowl game by more than 3 points and that victory came in overtime against Troy in 2008. This is not the type of team we want laying points, especially in these circumstances. PLAY NEVADA |
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12-24-11 | Miami Dolphins +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
Miami at New England
The Dolphins are looking to avenge their opening week 38-24 Monday Night Football loss to the Patriots. That 38 point output was a season high in points allowed for the Dolphins by a whopping 12. Since that time Miami has improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball holding 4 of their last 7 opponents to 14 points or less. Matt Moore has improved greatly in this offense as the season has unfolded and the offensive line problems shouldn't be a factor against this week New England defense. This is somewhat of a sandwich game for the Patriots. They are off the highly publicized showdown against Denver with Buffalo revenge on deck. Tom Brady had his worst game in his career the last time he faced the Bills and you know he has that game circled. This one, not so much. New England has owned the Dolphins as of late with wins by 14, 31and 27 the last three meetings. While much has been made about this Patriot scoring offense most of their damage has been on the road. They are just 3-3 ATS at home this season with just two of those games being double digit wins. PLAY MIAMI |
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12-22-11 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 40 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Houston at Indianapolis
Since the bye and the emergence of TJ Yates Houston games have totaled 41, 39, 27 and 33 points. In the last three contests the Texans have produced 0, 3 and 10 points by halftime. They have moved the ball pretty well but they continue to have problems finding the endzone. Defensively Houston had held seven straight opponents to under 20 points, until last week when they permitted 28 to the Panthers. With the losses last week of Baltimore and Pittsburgh Houston remains in contention for a first round playoff bye. Off a poor defensive performance we look for a nice bounce-back from this stellar defense. Indianapolis finally broke through with their first win of the season last week against Tennessee. That didn't look to be the case after scoring just 3 points in the first half. In fact, the Colts have been held to single first half points in 10 of 14 games this year. The last five games they have put up first half yardage totals of 106, 47, 89, 81 and 101 yards. So just because they put up 27 points last week against Tennessee don't think this team has solved their offensive problems. Overall 5 of the last 7 Colts games have resulted in point totals of 40 or less. Against this weak passing game of the Texans we look for a strong effort out of this Colt stop unit. PLAY UNDER |
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12-17-11 | Temple v. Wyoming +7 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 21 m | Show |
201/202 Temple & Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl
The Owls struggled a bit when stepping up in class this season losing to fellow bowl entrants Penn State, Toledo and Ohio U, posting a 1-2 spread mark in the process. They also lost at Bowling Green a place where the Wyoming Cowboys won earlier this year. Temple feasted on the weaklings of the MAC and a non-conference slate of victories over Villanova, Maryland and Army didn't help their resume. Over the last 5 years MAC teams have been overrated in the bowls with a 5-15-1 spread mark including a 30-21 non-covering loss for the Owls against UCLA in the 2009 Eagle Bank Bowl. Wyoming finished the regular season with the same 8-4 record as the Owls. They too struggled when stepping up in class with losses to Nebraska, Utah State, TCU and Boise State, all bowl participants this year. They did beat two other bowl entrants with wins over San Diego State and Air Force, both on the road. Therefore we feel the Cowboys are the more tested team. Wyoming played in this same bowl in 2009 and upset Fresno State 35-28 as a double digit underdog in double overtime. Mountain West Conference teams have posted a 14-10 spread record in bowl action the past five seasons. The MAC has struggled outside of conference action and there isn't a single team in this conference we would feel comfortable laying a touchdown with in the post season. Wyoming has been a strong road team with a 12-6 ATS mark away from Laramie under Dave Christensen. They get our money here. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-11-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Tennessee Titans +4 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 50 m | Show |
New Orleans at Tennessee
The Saints are just 2-4 ATS on the road this year and are on a 5-12 ATS run away from home. After five NFC contests they end the season with 3 more NFC games, so this is the least important game on the schedule since the end of October. Teams who scored 80 points the last two games are bound to be overrated and that is exactly what we see this week in New Orleans. In four games played this year outside of domes the Saints have outscored the opposition 107-105, only one of those four opponents has a winning record. The Titans are tied for a Wild Card spot with games against Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Houston to finish the season. The Houston games is in the final week where the Texans will likely play backups for extended periods. With the easy ending schedule if the Titans win here they likely make the playoffs. The Tennessee running game is peaking and the defense hasn't permitted more than 24 points in all but two games all season. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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12-08-11 | Cleveland Browns +14.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 60 m | Show |
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
The Browns have lost 5 of their last 6 games and have been dominated in this rivalry series. Pittsburgh has beaten the Browns 14 of the last 15 meetings. Cleveland's starting quarterback and starting running back are both questionable. But this game is a statement game for Cleveland in front of a national audience and we expect the Browns to put forth a big effort. Despite a 4-8 campaign the Browns have only lost twice this season by more than this projected pointspread, two 18 point defeats. Pittsburgh is off a Sunday Night Football game against Kansas City and last week they beat divisional upstart Cincinnati. On deck for Pittsburgh is a Monday Night Football contest with the San Francisco 49ers. The Steelers haven't been overly impressive in the double digit favorite role with pointspread losses to Kansas City, Jacksonville and Indianapolis the last three in this situation. They failed to cover the spread in those contests by a combined 23 1/2 points. The Steelers beat the Browns by 32 and 18 points last year, they have no reason to get excited for this short week contest, especially with a big test on deck at San Francisco. Now just 6-16 ATS as a double digit favorite the last decade, it's the Browns who cash the ticket on Thursday. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-03-11 | Iowa State v. Kansas State -10.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -105 | 116 h 8 m | Show |
313/314 Iowa State at Kansas State
The Cyclones have looked good as of late beating Oklahoma State and covering last week against Oklahoma. But when we look closer we see that Iowa State is getting a little too much credit for their recent success. This is a team with a long injury list and they had a bye before facing the Oklahoma schools. Oklahoma State clearly overlooked the Cyclones with in-state rival Oklahoma on deck and Iowa State had a rare nationally televised home game. Last week winds of up to 40 mph hurt the Oklahoma passing game and Iowa State only scored because of a snap that flew over the punters head. The Cyclones were held to a season low in yardage against an Oklahoma team that had a clear lookahead to Oklahoma State and the Big 12 Championship. After playing the two best teams in the conference in back to back weeks we can't expect a supreme effort from the Cyclones here on Saturday. Kansas State had a bye last week which sets them up for a big performance here. They are actually still alive for a BCS bid and are aiming for their first ten win season since 2003. The Wildcats have struggled against the pure passing offenses of Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but the Cyclones don't have that kind of ability in the passing game. Kansas State is also a team who doesn't turn the ball over as they haven't lost the turnover battle since opening week against Eastern Kentucky. In fact, since Bill Snyder returned to the sideline three years ago the Wildcats are plus 26 in turnover margin. Iowa State on the other hand has only won the turnover battle in two games all season. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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12-02-11 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
305/306 Northern Illinois & Ohio U
Both of these teams have played in front of national television audiences each of the last four weeks. The Huskies have gone 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS. The Bobcats have put up the same 4-0 SU & 2-2 ATS record. Northern Illinois wins with offense, Ohio U wins with defense. The Huskies put up impressive offensive numbers against the likes of Toledo, Bowling Green and Ball State but when they faced a decent defense last week against Eastern Michigan they were held to just 18 points. When you look over the Northern Illinois schedule you see that it's loaded with bad defensive football teams. Even in non-conference play they faced the likes of Army, Kansas and Cal Poly. Against the only two quality stop units they faced the Huskies scored 7 against Wisconsin and 18 against Eastern Michigan. The casual fan loves high scoring offenses so you know what team will be bet by the general public. Since Frank Solich has been in Athens the Bobcats have faced the Huskies twice, in 2009 in a pick 'em game and in 2006 when Northern Illinois was a 16 1/2 point favorite. Ohio U won both of those games by 38-31 and 35-23 scores, covering the posted number by a combined 35 1/2 points. Last week Ohio U had nothing to play for in a 21-14 go through the motions game against Miami Ohio. This is a team that has permitted more than 28 points just three times all season. The quarterbacking has been outstanding with just one game of over a single interception and the Bobcats for the most part have stayed under the radar because they are not a flashy high scoring outfit. Since 2006 the Bobcats are 11-5 as a conference underdog. Ohio U has yet to win a conference championship under Solich and this is the year they accomplish that goal. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-27-11 | Carolina Panthers v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 45 | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 73 h 0 m | Show |
Carolina at Indianapolis
The Colts have permitted 23 points or more to all but one opponent this season. While the offense has produced 3, 7, 10 and 7 points the past four games, the bye week is sure to help this struggling unit. Carolina has given up 20 points or more to all but one opponent this season, and that was the offensively inept Jaguars. Even Arizona and Washington have had offensive success against the Panthers. PLAY OVER |
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11-25-11 | UTEP v. Central Florida -9.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
135/136 UTEP at Central Florida
This line represents the typical late season need situation which is almost always an overreaction. UTEP needs a victory here to become bowl eligible, which is to say that they haven't been a very good team all season. UTEP owns five victories on the season against a who's who of bad football teams. Stony Brook, New Mexico State, Tulane, Colorado State and likely their most impressive win over East Carolina, a game they failed to cover. That's not the type of resume that bowl organizers smile upon. Because of their need and the disappointing season of Central Florida we have a great deal of line value here. UCF has lost seven games this season, 6 of those coming by 7 points or less. This is a team stepping way down in class this week after facing the likes of East Carolina, Southern Miss and Tulsa the last three games. As a home favorite the Knights are 3-2 this year and 11-5 the past three years. Off three straight losses this is a hungry squad who would like nothing better than to end the season for the Miners. This is a very young club with a huge upside for the future, they won't go down without a fight here. Just three weeks ago this team gave 2 points to Tulsa, now they are laying just north of a touchdown more to UTEP, a team with one quality victory all year. We take full advantage of this overreaction in the betting marketplace with a very capable home favorite. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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11-25-11 | Arkansas v. LSU OVER 52 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
129/130 Arkansas at LSU
This is a huge game in not only the SEC but on a national level. Since Bobby Petrino has been at Arkansas he has had great offensive success against some pretty good LSU defenses, putting up 31, 30 and 31 points. The Razorbacks are in terrific offensive form scoring 44, 49 and 44 points the last three weeks. Doing so against the stiff defensive talent of Mississippi State, Tennessee and South Carolina. In fact, Arkansas has put up 26 points or more in 18 of their last 19 games. The last five meetings in this series have produced point totals of 54, 63, 61, 98 and 57, all higher than the Vegas line in this match-up. LSU has put up 35 points or more in all but two games all season, against Alabama and Mississippi State. While Arkansas can put points up on just about anybody this Razorback defense has some problems. Both teams should be able to trade points here as Arkansas has the passing game and team speed to stretch the field against the Tigers. We look for a high scoring contest in a game where neither team will be looking to milk the clock. PLAY OVER |
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11-22-11 | Miami (OH) +7.5 v. Ohio | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
Miami Ohio at Ohio U
This line was made strictly off of power ratings and doesn't take into effect that the Bobcats have already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game. Ohio U has no extra motivation in this game except to keep their key personnel healthy for their biggest game of the season. Last time out Ohio U used a late minute drive to surpass Bowling Green and clinch the victory as well as a spot in the big game. That was last Wednesday, so they have less than a full week to prepare for the Redhawks. Ohio U is already 0-3 ATS as a conference home favorite this year and it wouldn't be surprising if they are not fully attentive in practice this week. Miami has had a disappointing season under first year coach Don Treadwell, but they are playing much better ball the second half of the season. They are 4-3 straight up down the stretch with two of the losses coming by exactly a field goal. This game has extra meaning for the 31 Miami seniors as they have never beaten Ohio U in their playing careers. The Redhawks have dropped the last 5 meetings in this series, including an embarrassing 21 point home loss last year in Oxford. Miami has the motivation here while Ohio U is likely to overlook a team they have beaten soundly as of late. Throw in the Championship Game celebration and the points are too tempting to pass up. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-20-11 | San Diego Chargers v. Chicago Bears -3.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
San Diego at Chicago
The Chargers enter play off: NY Jets (AFC Playoff Team), Kansas City (MNF divisional rival), Green Bay (SB Champs), Oakland (TNF divisional rival). On deck they have Denver (divisional rival), Jacksonville (MNF), so this could be the least important game on the Chargers schedule. They haven't beaten a team with a winning record all year with wins against Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami and Denver. San Diego lost to every playoff caliber team they have faced, by margins of 14 to New England, 6 to NY Jets, 7 to Green Bay and 7 to Oakland. Stats show this is a 7 to 8 win team but the line shows they are a 9 to 10 win team. The Bears sit at 6-3 on the season and have a very easy schedule the remainder of the season. They may only be an underdog once, at Green Bay. Since tightening up the pass protection this team has scored 37, 30, 24 and 39 points. The defense has held five straight opponents to 24 points or less including Detroit twice and Philadelphia. The Bears could easily go 12-4 on the year while San Diego could end up 6-10, this pointspread is a bargain. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-20-11 | Cincinnati Bengals +7 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 48 h 43 m | Show |
Cincinnati at Baltimore
This is one line we expect to drop by game time. The Bengals continue to be a team that is underrated in the betting marketplace. They are 7-2 ATS on the season with the pointspread losses coming against San Francisco and Pittsburgh by a combined 9 1/2 points. Cincinnati is a team with an excellent defense that has held every opponent faced this year to 24 points or less. The Bengals match up very well with the Ravens having won 3 of the last 4 meetings outright while cashing every contest. Defensively they have held Baltimore to 13, 10, 7 and 14 points the last four meetings. Baltimore will be without Ray Lewis this week, which not only hurts their on field defense but he calls the defensive plays. This is a team that has already lost to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle and has been an enigma to sports bettors worldwide. This is also a short week for the Ravens as they host San Francisco Thanksgiving Day. The Ravens haven't played well for a while now with losses to Jacksonville and Seattle surrounding a 3 point come from behind home win over Arizona and a last minute 3 point victory at Pittsburgh. The Ravens could be the most overrated team in the league. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-19-11 | Louisiana Tech v. Nevada -7 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 23 m | Show |
387/388 Louisiana Tech at Nevada
We've made some nice change this season on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs as they have covered the number five straight heading into Saturday action. But now the betting public has overrated this squad in a terrible situational spot. Louisiana Tech isn't happy to be playing in the WAC and you really can't blame them. Situated in Ruston Louisiana they would be much more comfortable in either the SEC or Conference USA. But they have been relegated to the WAC with the teams from California and Utah for example which makes for a terrible road schedule. Fresh off a huge victory over SEC entrant Mississippi, the Bulldogs now head out once again for the third straight week and fifth time in their last six games. Louisiana Tech has lost six straight games to Nevada and the past three visits to Reno have resulted in losses by margins of 23, 39 and 10 points, failing to cover the number by a combined 52 1/2 points. Nevada is a covering machine at home under Chris Ault. In his current go round at the school he has posted a 30-13 spread mark in home games. In two games this year against UNLV and last week against Hawaii is was clear that Ault went for the pointspread cover in order to reward his backers. That's the way it is in Nevada where sports betting is legal. It's also telling that in the last 6+ seasons Ault is 32-19 ATS in conference action. It's a recruiting ploy for Ault who knows it's tougher to get star athletes to go to Reno when the likes of San Jose and Hawaii are viable conference alternatives. With the line sitting around a touchdown we can very easily see Ault going out of his way to cash this for local fans of the program, something he's starting to be known for. PLAY NEVADA |
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11-16-11 | Ohio v. Bowling Green +7 | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Ohio U at Bowling Green
The Bobcats have excelled in their two nationally televised contests beating Temple 35-31 as an underdog and taking care of Central Michigan 43-28 last Thursday. But now they face a team they have struggled with in the past. The Bobcats are just 7-12 straight up and 5-14 ATS in this series, although they have won and covered the past two seasons. Because the public has witnessed the good Ohio U the past two weeks this line has been a bit inflated. We saw the same thing with Northern Illinois last night and they struggled for the outright victory, we see more of the same tonight. Bowling Green hasn't played since an embarrassing nationally televised loss to Northern Illinois on November 8th. Ohio U on the other hand has two less days to prepare after having last played Thursday night. While Ohio U is already bowl eligible the Falcons need to sweep their last two games over the Bobcats and Buffalo for any postseason hopes. The Bowling Green offense has struggled as of late posting 21 or less points in six straight games, but this Ohio U offense hasn't always hit on all cylinders either. Bowling Green has had a problem with turnovers all year, only winning the turnover battle twice all season. But this Bobcats team also struggles in that regard so the Falcons won't be dominated in the trenches. Off two straight embarrassing losses to Kent State and Northern Illinois we expect Dave Clawson to have his team fully prepared to close out the home portion of their schedule with a win tonight. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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11-15-11 | Ball State +17.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Ball State at Northern Illinois
First nationally televised game for the Cardinals who have cashed four straight games while staying under the radar. After struggling in back to back games against Oklahoma and Temple this team has rattled off point totals of 33, 35, 31 and 23 the last four games. Ball State has played very well at this venue as of late winning 2 of the last 3 visits covering the spread in those three meetings by a combined 62 points! The Cardinals excel in the role of MAC home dog posting an outstanding 14-3 ATS mark. It is their third straight road game but they are off a straight up victory at an improving Eastern Michigan squad. Northern Illinois is a very public team right now after back to back impressive nationally televised wins over Toledo and Bowling Green. But keep in mind that the Huskies only beat Buffalo by a single point and lost outright at Central Michigan. They are far from a dominant squad. Northern Illinois has three less days to prepare for this contest, and they are likely to come into this game fat and happy off five straight wins and a bye on deck. Especially when you take in to account that they beat Ball State 59-21 last year in Muncie. PLAY BALL STATE |
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11-13-11 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets -1 | Top | 37-16 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
New England at NY Jets
The Patriots have faded fast since the last time these two met. They have dropped two straight outright and three straight to the number. The offense which produced 13 straight games of 30 points or more has been held to 20 or less each of the last three weeks. The opposition has gotten physical with the receivers and New England lacks a down field threat to stretch the defense. The Patriots lost the last two times they visited New York 28-14 and 16-9. The Jet defense have really held Brady and company in check on this field as of late. Many will point to Coach Belichick and his terrific pointspread record off a loss, but that didn't help last week against the Giants and the dominant days of the Patriots could be over. The Jets are a different team defensively when playing in The Meadowlands. The last 15 games here they have allowed a total of 177 points, just 11.8 points per game. Looking to avenge a 30-21 setback earlier in New England we look for that defense to be the dominant unit on the field. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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11-11-11 | South Florida -3.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
South Florida at Syracuse
The Bulls have been money burners as of late dropping five straight to the number. But with closer inspection we see that they lost last week in overtime as a 2 point favorite and the prior game they failed to cover by just six points. So while the betting public has soured on this team the markets have made an overadjustment. Keep in mind this team is 4-4 on the season and is still bowl eligible. South Florida is 5-1 SU & ATS in this series including wins by 14, 31 and 27 points the last three times they played in this building. While the Bulls have obviously slipped badly the last six weeks this program is at a higher level than the one they will be playing on Friday. Syracuse is 5-4 on the season but they have been extremely fortunate with that record. They were being blown out in the opener before the Wake Forest quarterback left the game with an injury. The Orangemen stormed back against a backup to win in overtime. They also beat Toledo in overtime when the officials miscalled a field goal attempt. This is a team that has had one bye all season and has played in three overtime games. South Florida has had two byes thus far and only one overtime contest. The Orangemen are just 5-12 ATS in the home underdog role and have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games despite a combined turnover advantage of plus 7 in those games. PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA |
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11-06-11 | Cleveland Browns +11.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
Cleveland at Houston
Running backs are probably the most overrated players on a football team. Sure you do have your elite rushers but overall they are a dime a dozen. Cleveland this week is without their top two ball carriers so they are a bit underrated in the betting marketplace. But in reality, the guys who are out were nothing better than replacement level. Now that we are getting double digits we feel the Browns are worthy of a wager here. Keep in mind Cleveland only received 9 points last week at San Francisco, a superior team to the Texans. Let's take a quick look at who the Texans have beaten this year. Winless Indianapolis, winless Miami, a banged up Pittsburgh team, Tennessee and Jacksonville coming off a huge Monday Night Football victory. Despite a very weak schedule Houston hasn't been a favorite of this size all season. In fact, they have yet to cover the spread as a double digit favorite in over a decade. Sure the Cleveland offense isn't very good, that's why they are the underdog here. But the Browns can play defense as witnessed by holding 5 of 8 opponents to 14 points or less. This is one underdog with plenty of bite. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-05-11 | Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 123 h 59 m | Show |
389/390 Louisiana Tech at Fresno State
The Bulldogs have traditionally struggled on the road and it makes a great deal of sense. Located in Ruston Louisiana it's a hell of a long way to get to the other locations in the WAC, especially all the way to the coast to face a team from California. But that hasn't been the case this year which tells us just how good this Bulldogs squad is. Louisiana Tech is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this year cashing at the likes of Southern Miss, Mississippi State, Idaho and Utah State. This is a team that came within 2 at the Top 25 Golden Eagles, took an SEC squad like the Bulldogs to overtime, won by 13 visiting the Vandals which is always a tough trip, and winning outright in Logan against a pretty good Aggie squad. Only Idaho can be considered a weaker team than Fresno State. Louisiana Tech has cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series and they are looking to avenge a home loss to the Bulldogs last year. Fresno State has just three wins on the season, against North Dakota, Idaho and Utah State. North Dakota is an FCS school, Idaho is winless against FCS competition and Utah State owns one FCS victory. Needless to say this Fresno State team is way down from the last four seasons when they posted a combined 32-20 record. Fresno has never had much of a home field advantage. The last 5+ seasons they have posted a 7-23-1 spread mark in Bulldog Stadium. The last five times Fresno State hosted Louisiana Tech they managed an 0-4-1 spread record. The Bulldogs are a very young team with just 10 returning starters. They haven't yet learned how to win, a problem the visiting Bulldogs have finally figured out. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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11-05-11 | Washington State +10 v. California | Top | 7-30 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 2 m | Show |
365/366 Washington State at California
Talk about public perception leading to a bad line. Washington State came into this season winning 2, 1 and 2 games the first three years of the Paul Wulff regime. They started the season winning 3 of 4 but have dropped four straight heading into this contest. So those on the outside looking in are saying that this is the same old Cougars team that is the laughingstock of the PAC 12. But those willing to put in the effort know that this is a team that is much better than their recent results. Washington State lost at UCLA by 3 earlier this month, a team that crushed California last week. They then lost at Stanford by 30, a team that was won and covered every game this season. The following week the Cougars were in the unfamiliar home favorite role against Oregon State and predictably failed to live up to expectations. It was the first conference home favorite role under Wulff. Last week Washington State lost at Oregon but played them extremely well in a 43-28 loss on the road. The Cougars cashed just 4 of 7 tries in the red zone as the Oregon special teams caused them fits. But in between the 20's the Cougars played the Ducks virtually even. Because of those games we are seeing great pointspread value on the visitor who has cashed 7 of 9 in the road underdog role. California on the other hand is known to have a huge home field advantage. But they are not playing at home this season, instead the Bears are calling AT&T Park their home as Memorial Stadium is being renovated. So because of public perception this line is at least a field goal too high in our estimation. Cal is 4-4 on the year with wins over Fresno State, Colorado, Presbyterian and Utah. Just two weeks ago they were just 1 1/2 point home favorites over the Utes, now they are laying over a touchdown more to a very comparable Washington State club. If you've followed the Golden Bears over the last seven years or so you are well acquainted with the California fade. It's not a haircut or a dance but the way the Golden Bears end their seasons. Over that time frame California is 8-21 ATS the last four games of the regular season, to go along with 2-4 ATS in bowl games. Washington State marks the first of the final four games of the season for California. We will ride the wave, or the fade in this instance, with the underrated Cougars. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |
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11-05-11 | Southern Mississippi v. East Carolina +9.5 | Top | 48-28 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 52 m | Show |
369/370 Southern Miss at East Carolina
The Golden Eagles have started to get a great deal of press based on their 7-1 start. They have broken into the Top 25 for the first time in seven years and they are being featured on CBS Sports College Football Confidential the next three weeks. A nice accomplishment for Larry Fedora and his players. But all that does is make this Southern Miss team complacent and overrated in the betting marketplace. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles have dropped 3 of the last 5 meetings in this series despite being favored four times against East Carolina. Southern Miss has cashed 6 straight games overall heading into this match-up so they are a bit overvalued right now despite facing a very weak schedule. East Carolina has won three straight after being embarrassed 56-3 at Houston. That was the first of three straight road games for the Pirates, but they rebounded nicely since that game as this young team has matured. Now in their second home game in a row we expect East Carolina to be a very dangerous home underdog. Now 13-5-1 ATS in the role of home underdogs the Pirates look for their third straight outright win in this series. While Southern Miss will provide a much tougher defensive opponent than they have faced as of late, this Pirates defense themselves is getting better and better each week. Keep in mind that East Carolina is 5-3 ATS on the season. In each of their three losses they had a negative turnover differential of 4 in every game. QB Dominique Davis is coming into his own and the mistakes he made earlier this year are in the rearview mirror. After all he had a 37-16 touchdown to interception ratio a season ago and he has been in a record breaking mood the past two weeks. A red hot quarterback and an improved stop unit makes this home dog a dangerous one. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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11-05-11 | Kansas +14.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 117 h 48 m | Show |
339/340 Kansas at Iowa State
The Jayhawks are coming off a string of six games in which they faced teams that are or have been in the Top 25 at one time or another this season. As expected they were pounded on a regular basis which culminated in a 43-0 loss last week at Texas. That was the first time Kansas has been shutout since the 2002 football season. In fact, the Texas defensive starters reentered the game late to ensure the blanking. Now after being humiliated on a regular basis they face off against a team they have beaten straight up in 5 of the last 6 meetings. A team that is coming off a huge upset victory over a squad that beat Oklahoma the previous week. Kansas is stepping way down in class this week and yet they are in the same pointspread range as games against Georgia Tech and Kansas State, two teams far superior to the Cyclones. Iowa State was winless in Big 12 action going into last week, losing by margins of 23, 23, 35 and 16 points. They took advantage of a terrible scheduling spot for Texas Tech off a huge Oklahoma upset with in-state rival Texas on deck. So now Iowa State comes in fat and happy off their best game of the season and a bye on deck, facing a team that has been beaten by a combined score of 330-124 the past six games. Do you really think Paul Rhoads will have the attention of his players in practice this week? All his team knows is that they just beat the team that beat Oklahoma and that they won 28-16 over Kansas last year. Handicapping 101 says that we need to hold our noses and back the Jayhawks here. We didn't do that with the St Louis Rams on Sunday and we're still kicking ourselves, it won't happen again. PLAY KANSAS |
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10-29-11 | SMU +3 v. Tulsa | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
153/154 SMU at Tulsa
SMU had a major letdown last week after gaining revenge on Central Florida for a loss in last years Conference USA championship game. After putting up point totals of 38, 40, 42 and 40 the prior four weeks Southern Miss held the Mustangs to just 3 total points, the lowest points scored in the June Jones era. Now SMU comes out with a vengeance against a team they have cashed against 6 of the last 7 meetings, the lone pointspread loss being a 21-18 win last year laying 6 1/2. In those seven meetings SMU has covered the pointspread by a combined total of 94 points! They are 12-7 ATS as a conference road underdog. Here is a stat you rarely see in your handicapping. SMU is 4-3 ATS on the season despite not winning the turnover battle in any game. As we all know if you can predict the team that will win the turnover battle you will get rich in your sports betting. So even though the Mustangs have yet to win the turnover battle against any opponent they have a winning spread record. That right there shows you how undervalued this SMU team is in the sports betting marketplace. Tulsa has only won the turnover battle three times all season, all against far inferior competition. They held the edge against Tulane, North Texas and Rice who are a combined 6-16 straight up against FBS competition this season. When stepping out of the dregs of college football Tulsa has lost by 33, 26 and 20 points, allowing 47, 59 and 41 points in the process. Tulsa has beaten up on the likes of Tulane, North Texas, UAB and Rice, they are taking a sizable step up in class here. Keep in mind that the Golden Hurricane are 4-12 ATS in this series and the road team has cashed 7 of the last 9 meetings. Off back to back satisfying double digit wins the much more motivated squad resides in Dallas. PLAY SMU |
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10-29-11 | Boston College +7.5 v. Maryland | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 118 h 34 m | Show |
141/142 Boston College at Maryland
Boston College has been favored over Maryland each of the last six years yet the Eagles are installed as a touchdown underdog here. This is a team that excels in the role of road underdog posting a 16-8 ATS mark. Coming off a spread covering competitive loss at Virginia Tech the Eagles are stepping way down in class here. Sure the offense has struggled all season but it's not like they are facing the same stop units as they have the last two games. Clemson and Virginia Tech are far more advanced than this Maryland defense. Maryland owns just two victories on the season. The first was hosting Miami Florida in the season opener when new coach Al Golden hadn't had enough time to prepare his team after taking over for Randy Shannon. New coaches often struggle out of the gate and with all the off-season troubles this program faced it was clear Golden wasn't ready for a conference clash right out of the box. The other victory for the Terrapins was over FCS entrant Towson, a non-covering victory. Maryland is on a 7-16 spread run as home favorites. They have cashed just once since the opening game against an unprepared Miami squad. Each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by a seven points or less, so we ask why is this line so inflated? The Terrapins are playing for the seventh straight week after facing three physical squads in Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech. BC on the other hand had a bye week before taking on the Hokies last week. Boston College is the fresher team and the line in this game is overly adjusted because of the weak Eagle offense. Maryland isn't the type of team you lay this type of number with as they have underperformed against the spread all season. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE |
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10-22-11 | East Carolina v. Navy -10 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 24 m | Show |
369/370 East Carolina at Navy
The Pirates of East Carolina were good to us last week after an embarrassing performance at Houston. But now we find the Pirates playing their third straight road game in a non-conference affair with Navy, a team that beat them 76-35 last year. Just like a season ago East Carolina is more worried about conference action than preparing for the Navy option. Now standing at 2-1 in the East Division of Conference USA the team has goals of making it to the conference championship. So despite having revenge from last year we can't see the Pirates approaching this game with high intensity. They couldn't stop Navy last year and with five straight conference games on deck we can't see the Midshipmen having any trouble scoring again this season. Offensively the Pirates will be missing two starters on the offensive line and they already lack big play ability. Going into the Memphis games last week East Carolina had just one offensive play of 40 or more yards. While they did have three against Memphis that was likely more of a factor of the Tigers defense than the Pirates offense. Navy should be a fired up squad as they enter play off four straight losses including a 21-20 defeat at Rutgers last week. This is a team that rarely turns the ball over based on their style of play as they haven't lost the turnover battle in any game this year. In fact, Navy is plus 36 in turnover ratio the past 4+ seasons. East Carolina on the other hand have lost the turnover battle in the last four games by a whopping 12 miscues. Navy does have rival Notre Dame on deck but after tasting defeat as frequently as they have the Midshipmen will not overlook East Carolina. While Navy has lost four straight, three of those defeats were by margins of 1, 1 in overtime and 3. Navy takes out some frustrations here. PLAY NAVY |
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10-20-11 | UCLA v. Arizona -4 | Top | 12-48 | Win | 100 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
UCLA at Arizona
Both teams had byes last week but Arizona used the extra week to fire their head coach and promote the defensive coordinator. Tim Kish takes over for Stoops as he was on the staff as the defensive coordinator. While Kish has no head coaching experience the change at the top has to be viewed as a positive for Arizona. The players had been tuning out the high strung Stoops who clearly wore his emotions on his sleeves. Word out of Tucson is the players and the practices are more relaxed and the new coach has brought back a fun atmosphere. Off five straight losses the Wildcats are a hungry team and they want to assure the higher ups in the administration that the move was warranted. Offensively Arizona doesn't have any problems as Nick Foles will likely be playing on Sundays. The problem has been a defense which has regularly struggled and has had to deal with injuries. But after playing the likes of Oklahoma State, Oregon, Stanford and USC we expect the Arizona stop unit to step it up this week in front of a home national audience. Arizona has owned this series as of late winning 4 straight while cashing 3 of those games. The only non-cover for the Wildcats was last year when they were favored by 9 on the road and won by just 8. UCLA is now on a 3-10 spread run as a conference road dog. The defense has permitted 38, 49 and 45 points to the only three decent offenses they have faced. This is coming off a year in which they permitted over 30 ppg. UCLA has won three games this season but those wins came over San Jose State and Washington State at home along with a victory at Oregon State. Those teams have a combined record of 6-11 vs FBS competition. UCLA has averaged less than 15 points per game the last three years against Arizona. They don't have enough offensive talent to trade points with the Wildcats. This is a huge game for the host after the coaching change and it's in front of a national television audience. Look for Arizona to make a statement here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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10-16-11 | Dallas Cowboys +7.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 101 h 39 m | Show |
Dallas at New England
We've made money this year fading the Cowboys but this is the right time to back a talented team at a very good price. Dallas is off a 34-30 loss to the Lions in which they collapsed down the stretch. They then had to sit around and think about that for an extra week as they had their bye last Sunday. Now with just a 2-2 record they simply can't wait to get back on the field. Even more importantly the Cowboys are quickly getting healthy as the extra week of rest has put Dallas in the most healthy position they have been in all season. Now on a 7-2 ATS run the past 2+ seasons as a road underdog we catch Dallas getting an inflated number based on the early season success of the Patriots. Last week's victory over the Jets was huge for the Patriots. It was not only a playoff revenge game for New England but it was against their most hated rival. You can tell just how much New England pointed to that contest based on the post-game remarks. The Boston beat writers said they have never seen Bill Belichick in a better mood. He was joking with the press and actually felt relieved by the victory. That's not the type of situation that can be good for a team that has tasted major success in the past. It will be hard for the coaching staff to get this team up this week with a bye on deck. This game also fits into one of our favorite NFL systems. Teams that win and cover the previous week as a sizable favorite often fail in that role the following week. This system actually makes a great deal of sense as the team becomes complacent after a satisfying win and they know they should have little trouble in the following game. We saw it after the Jets victory last week in the team's emotions, we see it on the field on Sunday. PLAY DALLAS |
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10-15-11 | Idaho +3 v. New Mexico State | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 49 m | Show |
189/190 Idaho at New Mexico State
The Vandals enter this game still looking for their first victory over an FBS participant and that gives us plenty of value since Joe Public isn't running out to bet Idaho on his parlay cards. This game fits a simple system that we've used for years that has a lot of validity. When two bad teams face off always take the points. The reasoning is simple, as the team winning the game is just happy as hell to get the "W" and isn't prepared to extend the margin. It's hard to ask a bad football team to not only win but to win by a margin, and despite the play here on the Vandals these are two bad football teams. That said, Idaho is the lesser of two evils. From a pure power rating angle we actually have Idaho as a 3 point favorite in this game. Last week they dropped a 24-11 home contest to Louisiana Tech. But in looking over the box score we see that the Vandals came within 13 points as a 4 point underdog despite a -4 turnover margin. Keep in mind this is the same team who gave their all the week prior in a 21-20 loss at Virginia, in a spot in which they could have easily been a no-show in the middle of conference action. Idaho has dominated this series winning 13 of 17 meetings and cashing 7 of the last 9. They beat the Aggies by margins of 23, 15 and 6 points the last three years, covering the spread by a combined margin of 35 points. New Mexico State is coming in off a bye week after outlasting in-state rival New Mexico 42-28. For a team that had won a combined 18 games the last 6+ years you know they were flying high the last two weeks with all the Aggies boosters patting them on the back. While they enter this game at 2-3 on the season the wins came against Minnesota and New Mexico, two of the most troubled programs in college football. Minnesota coach Jerry Kill recently marveled at the lack of talent he was given from departing head coach Brewster. So even though New Mexico State has a better resume this remains one of the worst teams in college football. Keep in mind the Aggies are now 4-15 ATS in the role of home favorite and 3-15 ATS overall in Aggie Memorial Stadium. This is not a strong home field advantage by any measure. Idaho on the other hand is in their preferred role of road dog in which they boast a 9-3 spread record including covers at Texas A&M and Virginia by a combined 21 points this year. PLAY IDAHO |
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10-15-11 | East Carolina -15.5 v. Memphis | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 120 h 24 m | Show |
183/184 East Carolina at Memphis
The Pirates take a major step down in class this week after facing the likes of South Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Houston. East Carolina has lost to teams that are a combined 21-3. At 1-4 on the season the team still has a shot at winning their division, even after losing the turnover battle by an astounding 12 the past three weeks combined. One of our favorite handicapping angles is to take a much more talented team off an embarrassing loss against a squad they have dominated in the past. Say what you want about the Pirates this team and this program is miles ahead of the program they will be facing on Saturday. Off a humiliating 56-3 loss to Top 25 Conference USA powerhouse Houston the Pirates will be playing with a chip on their shoulders. Keep in mind that East Carolina has beaten Memphis by 22, 19, 20, 16 and 15 points the past five years, covering the spread by a combined 56 points. Memphis owns two victories over FBS teams the last 2+ years combined. One of those victories came against a Sun Belt Conference entrant and the other was a victory over UTEP in 2009. This is a team with virtually no home field advantage with home losses by margins of 42 and 45 against FBS teams this season. In fact, against non-FCS competition Memphis has lost by margins of 42, 45, 20, 36, 39, 22 and 41 points the last seven home games. Memphis failed to cover those games by a combined 98 points! Now they take on a superior team with a major chip on their shoulders. This one could and will get ugly in a hurry. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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10-10-11 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions -5.5 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Chicago at Detroit
This is an extremely important game for the 2-2 Bears because they are way behind Detroit and Green Bay in the division. Which is why this line is at a reasonable number because Detroit is clearly the more talented team. Chicago has played 3 of 4 games at home and in their only road contest they were torched 30-13 at New Orleans. This is a team that has permitted 29, 27 and 30 points the past three weeks and doesn't possess an offense capable of trading scores. The offensive line has had major problems keeping Jay Cutler upright and now they face one of the most talented front sevens in the NFL. Detroit has a score to settle here as Chicago has beaten them six straight times. But this isn't your father's Lions team. This is a squad that has proven that they can score on anybody and possesses a defense that has all the parts to build on. Detroit has scored 27, 48, 26 and 34 points thus far, but they have yet to do so against a defense with a name like the Bears. That's plenty of motivation for Detroit in addition to keeping up with the Packers. This team has found a way to win close games in three of four weeks, and they believe in their quarterback. The same thing cannot be said of Chicago. It's payback time in Detroit tonight and with the line less than a touchdown the Lions are the clear fundamental play. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-09-11 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
New York at New England
All-Pro Center Mangold returns for the Jets here to not only protect Sanchez but also to reinvigorate the running game. With Mangold in the lineup this Jets team goes from pedestrian at best to a clear offensive force. Other than quarterback, a center of this magnitude is the most important player on the field offensively and his return has not been much of a factor in the pointspread either side or total. Overall 15 of the last 19 regular season games for the Jets have surpassed the posted total. Now they are going against a Patriot defense that has yielded point totals of 24, 21, 34 and 19 to start the season. New England has now scored 30 or more points in an amazing 12 straight games. The last four games against the Jets, New England has averaged 27.8 ppg. The Jets have now permitted 4 of their last 5 opponents to reach 24 points or more including 34 points each of the last two weeks. This is the third straight road game for the Jets, which hasn't happened in at least the last five seasons. That's a terrible spot to put a defense in that's struggling, especially against a quarterback like Brady. If Belichick wants to run up the score here he will, and we all know he does after losing to the Jets in the playoffs last season. PLAY OVER |
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10-09-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +7 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 43 m | Show |
New Orleans at Carolina
Not a good spot here for the Saints who are in the middle of three straight road games, off a satisfying win last week with a divisional match-up at Tampa Bay on deck. New Orleans is a high scoring team which is always overrated by the public. They are sure to take the 1-3 Panthers lightly here which would be a mistake, especially considering they beat Carolina in this building 34-3 a season ago. After facing Tampa Bay next week the Saints play on Sunday Night Football the following week. Keep in mind that the Saints barely escaped at home against Carolina last year in a 16-14 victory and that the Panthers have actually won 3 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Carolina is just one point away from producing a perfect 4-0 spread mark. They have proven time and time again that they play the entire four quarters. While teams like the Vikings and Eagles become lackadaisical, the Panthers off a 2-14 team remain extremely hungry. In this price range Carolina is a live dog and they have already proven themselves to be a backdoor covering machine. That's exactly what we expect here as the Panthers give the Saints all they can handle. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-08-11 | Auburn v. Arkansas -10 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
347/348 Auburn at Arkansas
The Tigers are coming off a huge victory last week at South Carolina where color blind Cocks QB Stephen Garcia virtually gift-wrapped the game for Auburn. After a four interception game we expect the Tigers to regress here as they play their second of four straight brutal SEC contests. Auburn has yet to lose the turnover battle in any game this season yet they are just 2-3 ATS. That's very important as no team was expected to fall further than the defending national champions. Keep in mind they returned just six starters and struggled against the likes of Utah State and Florida Atlantic. Now the Tigers must face Arkansas without their two most productive receivers who are listed as all but out this Saturday. In order to beat Arkansas you need to outscore them, and after posting point totals of 16 against South Carolina and 24 against Clemson, we doubt Auburn has the fire power to keep this one close. Arkansas is off back to back games against Alabama and Texas A&M with a bye on deck. They played the little sisters of the poor their first three games but showed pretty well the last two weeks stepping up in class. As opposed to Auburn, Arkansas has only won the turnover battle once all season yet they stand at a profitable 3-2 ATS. The Razorbacks have also beaten Auburn in 2 of the last 3 meetings including a 44-23 underdog victory here the last time these two met in Fayetteville. Arkansas was dominated across the lines against a physical Alabama squad but they won't be at a disadvantage here against an Auburn team that simply isn't overwhelming in the trenches. The Razorbacks have the far superior skill position players and they will be stepping down in class after the last two weeks. Under Bobby Petrino the Razorbacks are a solid 11-4-1 the past 2+ seasons in Razorback Stadium. We expect a strong showing from the host here. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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10-08-11 | Temple -9.5 v. Ball State | Top | 42-0 | Win | 100 | 119 h 31 m | Show |
335/336 Temple at Ball State
Temple has proven themselves as a true contender in the MAC after giving Penn State and Maryland all they could handle in back to back weeks. They suffered a letdown last week hosting a very good Toledo squad as turnovers did them in. Now 11-3 ATS on the road we look for a big bounce-back from the Owls here. Coach Addazio was furious after the game saying his team totally got away from what his team is, and that they would surely pay all week at practice. He said he would guarantee that his team would be "pissed off" and ready to take out some frustrations on Saturday. Ball State is off a humiliating 62-6 loss at Oklahoma now they return home to face the power rushing MAC squads of Temple and Ohio U in back to back weekends. Under Pete Lembo the Cards are now 1-8 ATS in conference home games after struggling against Buffalo here in their MAC opener. Keep in mind that twice last year as double digit home favorites this team was forced to go to overtime against Eastern Michigan and Akron, the two worst teams in this conference. Now 2-11 ATS overall under Lembo at Scheumann Stadium the Cards look to be in for a long day with a fired up Temple squad looking to take no prisoners. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-02-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
New Orleans at Jacksonville
Can't see the Saints being up for this game after just playing Green Bay, Chicago and Houston with division games with Carolina and Tampa Bay on deck. Last week's game had to take a lot out of this team as it was a nip and tuck affair throughout. New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of a touchdown or more the last two seasons. This is also their first of three straight games on the road with the next two as we mentioned coming against divisional rivals. The Saints were 2-4 ATS as road favorites last year with neither game being at this pointspread level. The New Orleans offense has been excellent as expected but this defense which improved last year is allowing slightly less than 30 points per game. Those are not the type of numbers we want to lay with a touchdown road favorite in the NFL. Jacksonville is 17-10-1 ATS as a home dog the past 9+ years. With a 1-2 record and scoring just 3 and 10 points the past two weeks the Jags will be fully focused here. Jacksonville has been a home underdog of more than a field goal just once the past two seasons. As a 7 point dog last year to Indianapolis the Jags won outright 31-28 over the Colts. New England backers learned a hard lesson last week in that you don't lay a touchdown as a road favorite unless you have a good stop unit. Could we be looking for a repeat upset here? PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-01-11 | Hawaii +4.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 44-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
173/174 Hawaii at Louisiana Tech
The last time the Warriors visited the mainland they were embarrassed at UNLV as a 19 point favorite 40-20. The prior visit the Warriors fell at Washington 40-32 failing to get the cash. This is a team that has had success on the road against lesser squads but struggles in the road dog role. Hawaii is now 9-14 ATS catching points on the road. Considering they they are an amazing 77-63 ATS overall the last decade you can really tell that the Warriors struggle in this role. Hawaii simply doesn't have the talent at the skill positions that they have had in the past. Bryant Moniz is still solid while throwing just a single pick in four games but this team lacks the explosiveness of prior versions. Defensively Hawaii has permitted 40 points in each of their road games to offensively challenged clubs Washington and UNLV. Hawaii has really struggled at this location over the years as Ruston isn't an easy travel location. Louisiana Tech may come into this match-up at just 1-3 but they have faced three teams that are better than anything the Warriors have fought with. The Bulldogs came within two points of Southern Miss in Hattiesburg, they took fringe Top 25 opponent Houston to the wire here in a 35-34 loss, and then last week they took a solid SEC opponent to overtime at Mississippi State. This is a team that is hiding in the weeds and ready to pound a team of this quality. The last three times the Bulldogs hosted Hawaii not only did they cash the tickets but they did so by a combined 71 points! These games have not even been close as it's been very clear that Hawaii simply struggles in Ruston. With Louisiana Tech stepping down in class we look for the host to take advantage of a sizable location edge and win this one going away. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-01-11 | Georgia Tech -10 v. North Carolina State | Top | 45-35 | Push | 0 | 48 h 14 m | Show |
131/132 Georgia Tech at NC State
The Techsters are now 25-12 ATS on the road dating back to 2004. Because of their running style with coach Paul Johnson they limit turnovers which is a major key in winning football games. Georgia Tech is 4-0 SU & ATS on the season and they have yet to lose the turnover battle in any game. It's very likely that they have another edge in that department here as this team is blocking like a machine offensively. A highly productive machine at that. After scoring 63, 49, 66 and 35 points so far this season we expect another offensive explosion from the Yellow Jackets. Coach O'Brien's club held the Jackets somewhat in check in last year's 45-28 road upset win in Atlanta. But we can't count on that happening again as this defense is in shambles. Four more players from that defense will be out this week and now only one defensive starter remains at his original position from the team that started the year. Off an embarrassing 30 point loss on national television against Cincinnati things are only getting worse for the Wolfpack. Despite a 2-2 record coming into play this week the Wolfpack are winless ATS, failing to cover the number by 42 points. When you are losing to the number by double digits per game and you can't field a defense with enough healthy bodies to face an offensive system you only see one time a year, we want no part of this home dog. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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10-01-11 | Arizona +12.5 v. USC | Top | 41-48 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
161/162 Arizona at USC
The Arizona Wildcats just faced possibly the three most explosive offenses in college football, Oklahoma State, Stanford and Oregon. All three of those games were seen by a majority of the country and in all three games the Wildcats were beaten to the tune of 75 combined points. Therefore nobody wants anything to do with Arizona in this game. If you've followed our analysis over the years you know that is exactly the time we want this ugly dog. Keep in mind that just three weeks ago the Wildcats were a 14 point underdog in Stillwater against the highly ranked Cowboys, now they are receiving virtually the exact same number from a USC team that has problems of their own. The last four times these two clubs met up the final verdict was 7 points or less each time with Arizona cashing three of those meetings. Nick Foles could very well be the best quarterback in the country that isn't in the national spotlight. Despite being forced to throw from behind he has an amazing 10-0 touchdown to turnover margin. Last year he posted a 20-10 margin with 71% completions, he simply knows how to play. USC is battling injuries to many of their rotational players which makes this team a questionable favorite. Now on a 4-8 home favorite spread run the Trojans are not a team we feel comfortable laying points with. Off a game in which they lost the turnover battle 4-0 we expect USC to try to keep Foles off the field by rushing the football and playing a ball control game. Last week they were lit up by the Sun Devils for 43 points which was almost as much as they permitted the first three weeks. With the game being shortened and Arizona really stepping down in class defensively this week the high number here puts us clearly on the Underdog. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-25-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
Arizona at Seattle
We thought the Cardinals were overrated before the season started and we haven't seen anything in their first two games to change our opinion. This is a team that permitted 27.1 ppg a year ago, and allowed 21 to a rookie quarertback making his first start and 22 last week to a Redskins team with the much maligned Rex Grossman behind center. Last year the Cardinals were a 7 point underdog at Seattle and now they are favored by 3 1/2. A 10 1/2 point adjustment between these two teams from a season ago. Arizona enters the game at 1-1, just where we expected after beating Carolina and losing to Washington. Seattle hasn't looked good offensively the first two weeks of the season, but they played San Francisco and Pittsburgh, two of the better stop units in the league. Now they take a major step down to face this Arizona defense. So while Seattle has struggled thus far we expect the offense to come to life on Sunday. Last year Seattle scored 58 combined points in their two meetings with the Cardinals. Seattle has the biggest home/road dichotomy in the NFL. The last 6+ years they are 29-17-2 ATS at home and 15-34-1 ATS on the road. After embarrassing road losses at San Francisco and Pittsburgh the Seahawks come to play in their own backyard on Sunday. PLAY SEATTLE |
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09-25-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +4 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
Green Bay at Chicago
Who won the NFC North last year? The Chicago Bears, as the Super Bowl Champion Packers had to win the final week in order to claim the Wild Card. These teams have split their last 10 regular season meetings including both home teams coming up victorious last season. In fact, Chicago has beaten the Packers 3 of the last 4 years at home. Now Green Bay is being installed as a 4 point road favorite in what is traditionally a very low scoring series. The Packers defense struggled the first two weeks against New Orleans and Carolina, and we expect the Chicago brain trust to protect Jay Cutler by any means necessary here. The Packers have kept Cutler on his back more than any other team, but Chicago has had all off-season to come up with a remedy. Chicago has been an excellent home underdog over the years posting a 17-11 spread mark including 3-1 last season. Off an embarrassing loss last week at New Orleans we expect a major effort out of Chicago here. After all this is the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season, the hated Green Bay Packers. As strong as Green Bay was last regular season they went just 3-5 straight up on the road. Last week they had to battle back on the road at Carolina to get the victory. Green Bay is good, no doubt about it, but this is payback time for the Bears. They've had this game circled. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-25-11 | Detroit Lions v. Minnesota Vikings +4 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
407/408 Detroit at Minnesota
Looks like a wise guy/square showdown in this one as the public is in love with this high scoring Detroit squad. After putting up 27 on Tampa Bay and 48 last week on Kansas City the players are lining up to take the new "it" team. We won't be one of them although Detroit is a team on the rise. The Lions beat a Tampa Bay team that is being outscored and outgained by margins of 18.5-6.5 and 304-85 in the first half this season. When you continually put yourself behind the eight ball like Tampa Bay has done it's tough coming back week after week. So the impressive first half by Detroit was equalled last week by the Vikings, although Detroit was able to hold on for the victory while Minnesota could not. Last week Detroit played a Kansas City team without their best defensive player, possession tight end, a quarterback with a major rib injury and in the meantime they lost their All-Pro running back. The Chiefs didn't have the weapons to make a game of it. That won't be the case this week as Minnesota is in an early season must win situation. With the Lions at 2-0 and the Vikings at 0-2 the host simply cannot afford to lose this game. In a division with Chicago and Green Bay this is do or die week for the Vikings. Detroit is in a rare position to not only having to win this game but to get the spread cover. The Lions have lost 13 straight at Minnesota, so they are looking to do something they haven't done in over a decade. Minnesota is outscoring the opposition in the first half 17-3.5 while outgaining them 222.5-117.5. After blowing that lead last week you know the Vikings will be focused in the second half this time around. Minnesota is 18-5 straight up at the Metrodome the last 3+ seasons and 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after a loss here. This will be one focused home underdog on Sunday. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-24-11 | Vanderbilt +15.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 3-21 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
363/364 Vanderbilt at South Carolina
The Commodores were making solid strides under Bobby Johnson heading into 2009 when injuries took a toll on the team in a 2-10 season. Right before the 2010 season was to get underway Johnson abruptly quit the program which left Robbie Caldwell to piece together some semblance of a team, it didn't work as another 2-10 season followed. But now the Commodores are back on solid ground with the hiring of James Franklin. Through three games Vanderbilt had already tasted victory more than they had in either of the previous seasons and they started league play with a convincing 30-7 win over Mississippi last week. This is a team that returned 19 starters including QB Larry Smith. Vanderbilt despite a subpar history has played the Gamecocks very well, especially in Columbia. The last four visits have resulted a 17-6 outright victory in 2007 along with respectable losses by 4, 7 and 11 points. Until last years unstable situation Vanderbilt had cashed to the tune of 20-5-1 ATS as a road underdog. Under Franklin who is known as an excellent recruiter we expect that to continue. With a bye next week we look for another solid effort from the Commodores here. We went against the Gamecocks last week with a strong play on Navy and we were rewarded with a wire to wire spread covering win. South Carolina hasn't yielded more than 23.5 ppg in any of the last seven seasons but we have serious doubts about that streak continuing. So far this year they permitted 37 to East Carolina, 42 to Georgia and 21 last week to Navy. This is the 2nd of 4 straight home games for South Carolina with revenge games each of the next two weeks against Auburn and Kentucky. While we're sure Spurrier wasn't happy with the team's play last week, we're not so sure that he has the horses to dominate an SEC squad. After all they trailed East Carolina badly in the opener and traded leads with Georgia the entire game. The dog in this series has cashed 8 of the last 9 meetings and Vanderbilt looks like a strong bet to continue that trend. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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09-24-11 | North Carolina +7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
345/346 North Carolina at Georgia Tech
North Carolina is in a strong role as they are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs. Always like to take the better defensive team getting points and the Tar Heels have shown the ability to slow down this potent Yellow Jacket offense. The last five years these two have tangled and Georgia Tech has averaged just 19 points per game. Considering that overall the Yellow Jackets have averaged over 27 ppg that's a solid accomplishment. North Carolina is 3-0 on the season and the only thing that has slowed down this scoring offense has been mistakes. They own a -4 turnover margin which isn't indicative of the talent on this team. North Carolina has held James Madison, Rutgers and Virginia to a total of 49 points. It's a much tougher schedule to the one faced by their opponent. Georgia Tech went head to head with Western Carolina, Middle Tennessee and Kansas. Georgia Tech is known primarily for their rushing prowess but this season they have had great success in the passing game. That said, they have yet to play any team that you could even consider average defensively. Last year Georgia Tech managed just 76 yards through the air and we don't expect that number to be much higher. Overall these are two teams we are looking to back this season but we were really surprised this line came out so high. We have the Tar Heels rated as a slightly better team yet they are a touchdown underdog. Better team, extra points and the much better defense. That's a combination we'll go to war with every time. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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09-22-11 | North Carolina State +8 v. Cincinnati | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
NC State at Cincinnati
The Bearcats have a reputation of beating up the little guy but struggling when stepping up in class. Last year as a double digit favorite they beat Indiana State by 33, Miami Ohio by 42 and Rutgers by 31. This season has been no different with a 62 point win over Austin Peay and a 45 point victory last week over Akron. Cincinnati is just 1-10 ATS when the game is lined in single digits. That is to say, in what is considered a competitive game the Bearcats underperform. Two weeks ago Cincinnati took money in their trip to Tennessee and they were dominated by the Volunteers 45-23 despite a two turnover advantage. Last year the Bearcats went into NC State and dropped a 30-19 decision as a 2 point underdog despite winning the turnover battle. Special teams were a big reason they lost last year and the Wolfpack have a huge edge in that regard here. Cincinnati had a terrific kicker a season ago in Jacob Rogers and his graduation has left a sizable void for the Bearcats, not only in his field goal kicking but in his kickoff placement. NC State will once again have a huge edge in special teams Thursday night. NC State has some injury concerns in the defense as three projected starters are out this week. While that is definitely a concern we like the job Mike Glennon has done since taking over for Wisconsin transfer Russell Wilson at quarterback. The Wolfpack have now gone 16 straight games without losing by more than a touchdown. Unlike the Bearcats they cash in competitive games going 8-4 ATS in games with a single digit pointspread. They are also a very solid 12-6 ATS under Tom O'Brien as a road underdog. If you remember back to O'Brien's reign at Boston College his teams were 6-1 ATS his last four years in the road dog role. NC State struggled at Wake Forest in their only other road game but we feel the Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated clubs in college football. With Cincinnati's failures in stepping up in class and O'Brien's ability to get the best out of his clubs in this role we really like the points here in this nationally televised battle. PLAY NC STATE |
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09-18-11 | San Diego Chargers v. New England Patriots OVER 53 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
San Diego at New England
Traditionally it's a money making proposition to go under any game totaled at 50 or higher. In our opinion that's no longer the case. The NFL has turned into a passing league and when two excellent signal callers do battle points will be aplenty. There was one such match-up last week and Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers combined for 76 points. This week we expect to see shootouts in this game as well as Philadelphia at Atlanta. These teams know that the opposing squad has a supremely talented quarterback that can put points on the board in a hurry. Therefore they can never take the petal off the metal. No lead is safe in the new NFL and we expect the old under 50 axiom to be a thing of the past. San Diego ranked 1st in the league in total defense last year yet they went over the posted total in 5 of their 8 road games. The last 12 times they were installed as road dogs the games averaged 50.7 points with a median of 51 points scored. Keep in mind that the vast majority of those teams wanted to run the football and keep Philip Rivers on the sidelines. That obviously won't be the case this week. Bill Belichick knows his defense is the weakness of his squad. After falling to 25th in the league last year in total defense the team was shredded in the opener by Chad Henne. Henne's high in passing yards last year was only 363. The Patriots surpassed the posted total in 7 of 8 regular season home games last season. They are 11-5 over the total as a single digit home favorite. That means this team continues to try to score in competitive match-ups. New England home games last year averaged 53.6 ppg and keep in mind they played the likes of Cincinnati, Buffalo, Baltimore, Minnesota and Miami. In games against teams with top tier quarterbacks we saw point totals of 59 against Indianapolis and 58 against Green Bay. Welcome to your new NFL where no lead is safe and you can't touch the quarterback. Who needs the NBA when the NFL offenses have all the advantages to put up huge numbers. PLAY OVER |
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09-18-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. Washington Redskins -3 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Arizona at Washington
The Cardinals travel all the way to the East Coast for an early starting game against the Redskins. We had Arizona rated as the second worst team in the league last year and they ended the season with five victories. Three of those five wins came by margins of 4 or less, with two by a single point. On the flip side 8 of the 11 losses were by double digits. Keep in mind that they played in the weakest division in the league so they faced the likes of Seattle, St Louis and San Francisco twice each. The signing of Kevin Kolb should help but when was the last time a quarterback left Philadelphia's system and had success? Kolb looked pretty good last week against a sieve of a defense, but that won't be the case here. Defensively the Cardinals allowed a rookie quarterback to set an opening game passing record against them. After finishing 29th in the league a season ago in total defense it looks like another long season for the Cardinals. Washington cashed big time for us with our NFC East Game of the Year last week. This is an improving team that is starting to gain confidence in Rex Grossman. The Skins have now cashed all four games Grossman has started in the last two seasons. After seeing how Donovan McNabb did last week you have to wonder what took so long to make the QB change a year ago. Defensively the Redskins took a major step back last season to 31st in the league in overall defense. That's off three straight top 10 finishes. Keep in mind the same thing happened to this stop unit in 2006 after finishing 9th and 3rd the previous two seasons. They finished the following year back in the top 10 allowing only 19.4 ppg. Injuries took a major toll last year and we expect a huge uptick defensively this season for the Skins. The Skins lost ten games last year with six coming by 4 points or less. They are the far better team in our estimation and the betting public is slow to recognize it. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-17-11 | Navy +17 v. South Carolina | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 37 m | Show |
153/154 Navy at South Carolina
There is plenty of value taking teams who don't turn the ball over when playing on the road. Last year Navy only lost the turnover battle 2 of 8 games in neutral or road venues. In fact, the past 3+ seasons the Midshipmen have a +34 turnover differential. Going back the past 9+ years Navy is now 23-9 ATS as a road underdog. It makes a great deal of sense yet they continue to cash as the betting public ignores the fact that this isn't your typical road team. Football is just a minor part of what these men have to endure and their maturity definitely shows. Navy has lost just one game by more than this spread in the last 3+ seasons. That includes games against Notre Dame 3 times, East Carolina, Ohio State, Pittsburgh twice, Hawaii and Rutgers. They will not be intimidated playing in SEC country. South Carolina is coming off what could be their most important game of the year in a back and forth 45-42 victory over Georgia. They along with the Bulldogs are considered the top contenders in their division. Next week they return to conference action to take on an improved Vanderbilt team followed by defending National Champion Auburn. So not only is this a sandwich affair for Steve Spurrier's crew but they must prepare for an option type of offense they rarely see. You know they didn't spend a great deal of practice before the season on Navy, especially with their two tough opponents to open up the season. Both East Carolina and Georgia went bowling last year. So basically they have one week to get ready for the Midshipmen, off their must win game over the Bulldogs. We just can't see South Carolina dominating this game especially when you consider that they are not a team that wins the turnover battle on a regular basis. The last five seasons South Carolina has never ended the year with a turnover advantage. That's actually pretty amazing when you consider they play non-conference cupcakes like Furman, Florida Atlantic and Wofford. This is simply too many points to give a club that won't beat itself, and the letdown for South Carolina has to be a factor. PLAY NAVY |
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09-17-11 | Nevada -6.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
149/150 Nevada at San Jose State
Last week we went against Nevada against Oregon and we easily cashed with a fired up favorite. This week we take advantage of public perception and back the road favorite Wolf Pack. Nevada has posted six straight winning seasons and they are in the middle of a brutal schedule. Not only are they off Oregon but after this week's game they go to Texas Tech and Boise State before facing in-state rival UNLV at home. Starting with four straight road games including Oregon, Texas Tech and Boise should definitely prepare the Wolf Pack for WAC play. Chris Ault is now in his 27th season at Nevada and if anyone knows how to prepare his team for this rough slate he does. From a player perspective off an embarrassment at Oregon and with two very tough road games ahead this is an early must win game for the Wolf Pack. The players were very upset with their play last week and that's the type of team we want to back especially against a team they have dominated. Nevada has beaten San Jose State by margins of 22, 55 and 24 points the last three years. While Kaepernick and Taua are gone we are not looking at a -37 1/2 number this team laid to the Spartans last year. San Jose State is off back to back road games in Pac 12 country as they dropped 54 and 10 point decisions to Stanford and UCLA. The Spartans have a very weak home field advantage which is one reason why they are 3-6 ATS catching points here the past three seasons. Their only home win a season ago was a 16-11 victory over Southern Utah. They lost here to the likes of UC Davis and Utah State. This is a team that has won three games the past 2+ seasons and has shown no signs of a turnaround under Mike MacIntyre. There is simply a class difference with these two programs and the Wolf Pack have the talent to run it up. After facing the speed of Oregon last week the Spartans will look like a slow motion train the Wolf Pack are looking to ride. PLAY NEVADA |
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09-15-11 | LSU -3.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 55 h 55 m | Show |
101/102 LSU at Mississippi State
Short preparation for both of these teams this week but the Tigers had a semi bye as they faced Northwestern State as a 48 point favorite, while the Bulldogs had a conference battle with defending National Champion Auburn. LSU showed their speed on defense against Oregon in opening week action and the offense put the ball in the air with a lot of success. We knew the Tigers could run the ball, but with Jarrett Lee behind center coach Miles opened up the offensive passing playbook. We expect to see more of that on Thursday as the Tigers look to continue their fast start. In his seven years in Baton Rouge Les Miles has posted an 8-5-1 ATS mark as a conference road favorite. His teams are 34-16 straight up in SEC action. The better the conference the less home field advantage exists and Miles' clubs are an excellent proposition on the road. This is a team that doesn't get rattled, and they have already shown their mettle against the team that played in the National Championship a year ago in their 40-27 win over Oregon. With a non-conference affair against West Virginia on deck, the Bulldogs have their full attention. Mississippi State is an overrated club in our eyes. They blew out a Memphis team in week one, the same Tiger squad that lost last week to a Sun Belt team by 44 points. Last week they came up a yard short to an Auburn squad who is returning just 6 players and struggled to beat a WAC school the previous week. The Bulldogs don't own a very strong home field advantage as this club is just 20-31 ATS at home the past nine seasons. The only quality team they beat at home last year was Georgia and that team underperformed all season. The Bulldogs have not fared well in this series losing 18 of the last 19 meetings in straight up fashion, while cashing just 4 of those 19 games. Mississippi State won 4 games in 2008 and 5 in 2009, after winning 9 games last season we expect a regression for Mississippi State this season. You rarely see teams make a permanent climb in the SEC, sure you have your one year spikes but overall the best teams win each and every year. We're pretty confident that the Bulldogs are a few years away from the Alabama's and LSU's of this conference. This number is much too short considering talent and past history. Keep in mind the last time LSU played here they were favored by 12 points. The gap between these two programs hasn't narrowed by nearly that much. PLAY LSU |
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09-11-11 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
469/470 NY Giants at Washington
Handicapping tip number one. Check the injury report. The Giants not only have a lot of players that are either out or severely limited but many are big name starters. It's been a long time since we've seen a team with this long of an injury report before playing a single meaningful game. The offensive line has struggled to keep Manning upright, and if they don't do a better job here there may be two Mannings out of the lineup next week. The last three years New York has been -4, -3 and -4 at Washington, in that time this is by far the worst physical shape they have been in. And yet, they are in the same price range. Both Washington QB's looked good in the preseason and we feel either one would be an upgrade over the job Donovan McNabb did last season. His inability to throw downfield severely hampered this offense. After years of 16.6, 16.6 and 18.9 ppg how much worse can this scoring unit be with Rex Grossman behind center, after all Washington cashed 3 of 4 games last year with him as a starter. The defense had their worst ppg in a decade last season but they still have a good deal of talent. A bounce back season is in store. We could see the Giants in this price range if they were healthy, with their injuries this is a home dog bargain. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-10-11 | Notre Dame -3 v. Michigan | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
375/376 Notre Dame at Michigan
Rule number one in week two college football betting is don't overreact. About two months ago while I was betting the opening numbers from the Golden Nugget Casino, myself and a few highly regarded sports betting minds pounded Notre Dame in this match-up. It was a play on Notre Dame and a play against Michigan. The line went up as high as 4 1/2 before the betting stopped. Now after week one the line is down to -3 and possibly dropping. Why? An obvious overcorrection in the betting marketplace. Notre Dame was involved in an on again off again situation last week because of terrible storms in the area, as a matter of fact Michigan was affected by the same storm. So the outcome of those games has to be taken with a grain of salt, because it was a situation I'm sure neither team had ever been through before. That said, the Irish lost to South Florida in a game they totally dominated. They doubled the Bulls yardage wise but had an amazing -5 turnover disadvantage. How many times do you see a 10 point favorite lose the turnover battle by 5 and still only lose the game by a field goal. That shows you just how talented this Notre Dame team is. Michigan on the other hand had a 3 turnover advantage against a team from the MAC, a much weaker squad than the one the Irish faced. So their rain shortened 24 point victory was less impressive. Michigan has a new coach and new coordinators and while I do believe they will improve as the season goes on, they are really stepping up in class here. As much as we like Brady Hoke we like Brian Kelly even better. Maybe it's because in his time at Central Michigan, Cincinnati and Notre Dame he has made us a great deal of money. Want an example of how good a coach Kelly is? How bout since 2005 his teams are 24-11-1 ATS on the road. Want more? How bout 14-5 ATS off a loss. We took the +1 and P on the Irish when this game opened and we still like them at the current price. Betting on talented teams off a terrible game has tremendous value, doing so in week 2 is even more extreme. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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09-03-11 | BYU v. Ole Miss +3 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
165/166 BYU at Mississippi
After back to back 9-4 seasons in Houston Nutt's first two years in Oxford the Rebels fell to 4-8 last year and failed to play in the postseason. But Nutt has twice been SEC Coach of the Year and with 13 returning starters we expect the Rebels to be much more competitive this season. Ole Miss is 8-3 ATS vs non-conference foes under Nutt. After losing outright in their home opener last year to Jacksonville State you can bet the team has his attention in this opener. A key for the host will be the humidity factor as BYU doesn't see much of that out west, especially in their old conference the Mountain West. The Rebels bring in their biggest offensive line under Nutt which should provide a good push in the running game. BYU will have a tough time preparing for the Rebel offense because Houston Nutt has delegated the play calling to David Lee who has been a mainstay in the NFL the last few seasons. BYU has faced the SEC three times winning once by only 3 points. The Cougars traveled just twice out on the mountain area last year losing 34-10 at Florida State and 31-3 at TCU. In fact, take a glance at how the Cougars have done traveling against quality teams. Last year they failed to cover by 14 at Florida State and cashed by a single point at TCU. In 2008 they beat Washington by just a single point as an 8 1/2 point favorite, they also failed to cover by 23 at TCU. In 2007 they lost ATS and SU at UCLA and were beaten outright by 8 as a 6 1/2 point favorite at Tulsa. While BYU brings back 15 returning starters the edge they have had in their prior conference was size, they won't have that advantage against an SEC school. The Cougars will have another solid season in their first year as an independent, but with Texas, Utah and Central Florida on deck after this one they could really be behind the eight ball to start the year. MIssissippi coming off a terrible season and with only Southern Illinois on deck have had this game circled all off-season. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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01-23-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +4 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 4 m | Show |
Green Bay at Chicago
The Packers are the hot team right now and with any overhyped commodity the price has gone through the roof. While this line could hit 4 by game time we're more than willing to go against public perception here. The Packers have looked impressive in knocking off the Eagles and Falcons in the first two rounds of the playoffs. But we need to take a look at their entire resume as opposed to what is fresh in our minds. Historically there are many reasons to go against the public Packers here. They are a rare road favorite in the playoffs which has not been a good subset at all. Road favorites are just 11-18 straight up and 9-20 ATS. Considering that the Bears own the better overall record is yet another reason to fade the Pack here. History shows that teams who win by large margins and score a lot of points are terrible pointspread propositions the next week. Knowing that this is the third straight road playoff game for Green Bay also makes this a bad spot for the visitor, as teams in that subset cover just 33% of the time. We were impressed by how well the Bears played Green Bay in the last meeting even though Chicago had nothing to play for and Green Bay had to win to make the playoffs. Teams in must win situations at the end of the year are there for one reason only, they simply are not a dominant squad. And that's exactly what the Packers are now. A team that was one loss away from missing out on the postseason. Chicago had major problems along the offensive line earlier and those concerns have been addressed. The running game is stronger and home field advantage is huge. Green Bay had a +12 turnover advantage on the season while the Bears were +3. So with a 9 turnover edge for the Packers they still had a worse record than Chicago. Simply put these two teams are much closer in talent than the line would suggest. We'll gladly take the points considering the Packers couldn't get much more overvalued. PLAY CHICAGO |
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01-03-11 | Virginia Tech v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 12-40 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
Virginia Tech & Stanford at Miami
Stanford has a hell of a football team that just doesn't get enough publicity. They suffered just one loss on the season and that was to Oregon, a team playing in the National Championship game. The Cardinal actually led that game at the half before the Duck's superior quickness did them in. Virginia Tech simply doesn't have the team speed that Oregon possesses. The Cardinal offense has gotten all of the accolades for good reason as Andrew Luck may be the best quarterback in the college ranks. But it's the defense that has gotten better and better as the season has gone on, limiting their last five opponents to a combined 44 points. Virginia Tech is a good football team but I'm not sure they should be playing in a game of this magnitude. They allowed 33 points in a virtual home loss to Boise State and gave up 30 to NC State which has a solid quarterback at the helm. Other than those two teams they haven't faced another quality signal caller. If the Hokies are going to allow a similar number of points here to what likely is the best quarterback they have faced this season, we can't expect this pedestrian offense to keep this game close. The last three times Virginia Tech has faced a Top 10 ranked team in a bowl game they lost every game, while averaging just 19.3 points per contest. We look for more of the same as the Cardinal have the power running game, better quarterback and stronger defense. PLAY STANFORD |
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01-02-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 41-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
The Steelers need a victory over the Browns to secure the division title and an extra week of rest. Pittsburgh like most teams this time of the season really need that bye week in order to get the walking wounded back on the field. Troy Polamalu has a chance to play in this game and the extra week off after this affair could really help his healthy playoff return. The Browns have dropped 19 of the last 21 meetings with the hated Steelers. Now they likely will be without their lone offensive threat as RB Hillis is extremely banged up. It's no coincidence that Cleveland has struggled offensively as of late with Hillis battling injuries. With a rookie QB with limited skill at the receiver positions it could be a long day for Cleveland offensively. The Browns were much better early on in the first half of games because that lack quality depth. When some of the starters started going down Cleveland was exposed even earlier. At this point of the season the Browns are down to the end of the bench as injuries have taken a major toll. We can't expect Cleveland to get healthy against a motivated Pittsburgh team that knows they can dominate this foe. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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01-01-11 | Penn State v. Florida -7 | Top | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Penn State & Florida at Tampa
Joe Paterno announced earlier this week that he will be back for yet another season in Happy Valley. Based on this season that may not be a positive. In fact, many Penn State fans will consider that as a negative. Penn State was a young team this year with only 17 seniors on the roster. In looking over the schedule the best team they beat was either Michigan or Northwestern, teams that they played at home. Against the better teams on the schedule Penn State lost to Alabama by 21, to Iowa by 21, to Ohio State by 24 and to Michigan State by 6. Penn State really struggled against good defensive teams scoring 3 against Bama, 3 against Iowa and 14 against Ohio State. Even with extra preparation time we can't see this offense having much success against a solid Florida defense. The Brett Favre of coaching announced his retirement again as Urban Meyer is stepping down for the second straight year. Because of that we expect a big emotional game from his Gators players. We're well aware of the off the field issues this team has had, including injuries, but sometimes emotion overcomes obstacles. The Gator offense started to come together late in the season and we look for more of the same here. Penn State doesn't have great playmakers this season in order to stretch the field. That negates what has been a weakness for this Florida defense. Off an embarrassing 31-7 in-state loss to Florida State we look for a very emotional effort from the Gators playing in their home state. Lay the wood as Urban Meyer leaves the program with a solid victory. PLAY FLORIDA |
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01-01-11 | Northwestern +9.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Northwestern & Texas Tech at Dallas
The last time we saw these Wildcats play they were steamrolled by Wisconsin 70-23 in a game in which they had a turnover deficit of seven. The week prior Northwestern allowed 48 points to Illinois. You can bet this team is chomping at the bit to redeem themselves here against another team from a power conference. Under Pat Fitzgerald the Wildcats went bowling each of the last two years and covered the spread both games, with each game ending in an overtime loss. If there is a more motivated team coming into their bowl game we haven't found one. Texas Tech beat one good football team all season, a 24-17 home win over Missouri. Other that that the most impressive victory likely came in the season opener as the Red Raiders beat SMU at home 35-27. Keep in mind that this is a team that lost a home to Texas in the worst season for the Longhorns in decades. Northwestern had a habit all season of blowing sizable leads in the second half. Much of that had to do with facing a physical Big Ten Conference schedule. Now with five weeks of rest we expect the Wildcats to come out healthy and strong throughout this contest. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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12-30-10 | Army v. SMU -7 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
Army & SMU at Dallas
Big props to Rich Ellerson who has the Black Knights bowling for the first time since 1996. But truth be told Army played what could possibly be the weakest schedule this side of the MAC and Sun Belt Conference. The best teams the Knights faced were Hawaii in a 3 point home loss, Temple in a 7 point home loss, Air Force in a 20 point home loss, Notre Dame in a 24 point neutral site loss and Navy in a 14 point neutral site loss. The Cadets lost to every decent team they faced this season. SMU has a distinct advantage here after facing a similar styled Navy team earlier this season. June Jones reiterated that fact earlier this week. The Mustangs held Navy to 28 points in that game and have been very solid defensively for much of the year. Keep in mind that this is the team who gave TCU all they could handle in an earlier 41-24 loss. While Conference USA isn't a hot bed of football strength the Mustangs have fared better than the Knights against quality opposition. They beat East Carolina and Tulsa, two teams who went bowling this year. With June Jones putting to rest the Maryland rumors it's time for the Mustangs to take the next step. After a 45-10 pounding of Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl last year SMU continues their rise. PLAY SMU |
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12-28-10 | North Carolina State +3 v. West Virginia | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
North Carolina State & West Virginia in Orlando
West Virginia is about to go through a great deal of change. Bill Stewart has already been told that he won't be around after next season and they have already made some coaching changes for this game. Those coaches who haven't already been dismissed must worry about future jobs for 2012. This is not the type of atmosphere you want in a bowl game situation. The Mountaineers have only practiced seven times since the matchup was announced and the West Virginia fan base has been very slow in buying tickets for this contest. NC State has a veteran coach in Tom O'Brien who has had great success in the postseason. Remember that he was the head man at Boston College who garnered great success from his bowl game victories. The Wolfpack also have the better quarterback which is a huge edge in these type of affairs. We expect late money to come in on NC State once the late bettors realize the situation in Morgantown. There are still some 3's available as we write this but they likely won't last. NC State has been very good to us this year as we announced that they would be our play on team in college football this year. With a 9-3 spread record they haven't disappointed, while the smart money has been against West Virginia just about all season. Look for the Wolfpack to win this one outright. PLAY NC STATE |
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12-26-10 | Houston Texans v. Denver Broncos OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 40 m | Show |
Houston at Denver
The once promising season for the Texans is now over after three straight losses. After starting the year 2-0 with wins over Indy and Washington the talk was of the Texans finally making the playoffs. But as we have found all season long you can't win with a defense as weak as that of Houston. The Texans have now permitted 29 points or more in 9 of the last 10 games. The last three weeks they allowed 65 combined points in the first half alone. With the season now down to two games we look for the coaching staff to experiment offensively as they try to outscore the opposition from the opening kick. This has been a team that comes alive after halftime after having a subpar first half. But now that the season is over we expect Houston to come out firing from the start. Denver is another team with serious defensive issues. The Broncos have permitted 29 points or more in 5 of the last 6 games including 35 or more 4 of the last 5 weeks. Offensively Tim Tebow has been given a chance behind center which gives this offense a more dynamic look. It should confuse this Houston defense and open up more scoring opportunities. With promising seasons down the drain we expect both teams to open up offensively here and make this a high scoring affair. PLAY OVER |
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12-19-10 | Jacksonville Jaguars +5 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Despite cashing six straight games the Jaguars continue to be underrated in the betting markets. Jacksonville beat Indy earlier this year 31-28 and they haven't had any problem putting points on the board in this series. The Jags have scored 31 points each of the last two meetings and 23 points or more in 5 of the last 6 in this series. Jacksonville is in good current form offensively reaching 20 points or better in 4 of the last 5 games overall. Indy can score on just about anyone but they just can't be trusted defensively. The stop unit is getting progressively worse week after week as injuries have really taken a toll. The last four games the Colts have permitted 28, 38, 36 and 31 points. That's not the type of team we want any part of in the favorite role. The Colts had long been dominant in this building posting a 41-7 straight up record here the past six seasons. But Indy has dropped two straight at home to San Diego and Dallas and the game before that was life and death against Cincinnati. The Colts were successful in the past because Manning didn't make mistakes and the team always had a positive turnover differential. Each of the last seven years Indy had a turnover advantage totaling a whopping plus 77. This year the Colts are down 4 in the turnover ratio. A telling stat about how fortunate the Colts have been is that the last two times they held a turnover advantage they failed to cover the spread. Despite a plus 5 advantage against Cincinnati they cost their backers the cash and last week in Tennessee the Titans took home the money even though Indy had a plus 2 turnover edge. Simply put the Colts are not nearly as good as their record would indicate and the Jags very likely are the better team. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-19-10 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -5.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 40 m | Show |
Buffalo at Miami
Buffalo has played well when the opposition overlooks them, but that simply doesn't happen against divisional rivals. The Bills are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ATS against the AFC East this season. Buffalo is now 2-13 SU and 5-9-1 ATS against divisional rivals the past 15 meetings. With the Bills winning 3 of their last 5 games outright the Dolphins will not take them lightly, especially considering their problems at home this season. Miami has never had a very large advantage in Dolphin Stadium with five wins or less here in each of the last seven seasons. But remarkably Miami is 1-5 straight up at home in 2010. Granted losses to the Jets, Patriots, Bears and Steelers can be explained but they also split with Tennessee and Cleveland. With Detroit on deck next week, Miami can salvage a bit of pride by beating the Bills and Lions here to end their home season. Lost in the Dolphins struggles this year is the improvement of this Miami stop unit. The last five games Miami has permitted 6, 13, 17, 16 and 17 points. While this team has scored just 10 points or less in 3 of the last 4 games this defense of Buffalo pales in comparison to some of the teams Miami has played thus far. How bout games against the Jets twice, the Patriots, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Chicago. Just three weeks ago the Dolphins showed what they could do against a weaker stop unit by putting up 33 points against Oakland. Despite a disappointing season for the host, Miami can guarantee themselves a winning year with home wins over Buffalo and Detroit the next two weeks. That's enough of a goal for Miami to be fully focused on the Bills this Sunday, and as we have seen Buffalo doesn't play well against focused squads. PLAY MIAMI |
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12-19-10 | Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Giants OVER 46 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
Philadelphia at NY Giants
The Eagles continue to be an offensive powerhouse with only the Patriots being a better scoring unit. Philadelphia has done it against just about everyone including scoring 27 against the Giants in the first meeting. In fact, the Eagles have reached 26 points or more in the last six games and 8 of the last 9 contests overall. Last year Philadelphia produced 45 and 40 points against the Giants in the two meetings. The Eagle defense which had been so good early on is suffering from key injuries. The past three games they have allowed 31, 24 and 27 points. Overall the Eagle "D" has permitted 24 points or more in 6 of the last 7 games. The Giants have been getting big games out of their running backs and now the receivers are getting back into the lineup. They produced 21 points last week only because they knew the defense could carry the team against a feeble Minnesota scoring unit with 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks. Now the Giants know they must take risks offensively to keep up with the high flying Eagles. We expect another shootout in a battle for first place. PLAY OVER |
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12-12-10 | Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
Philadelphia at Dallas
The last time the Eagles took the field against the Cowboys in the regular season they were shutout in the season finale last year 24-0. What a difference one year makes. Michael Vick is back starting in the NFL and the Cowboys have long been out of the playoff hunt. This Eagle offense has been amazing all season and they have produced an average of 34.4 ppg the last five contests. Philadelphia is especially good to start out games as they have scored first in 10 of the 12 games despite only getting the ball first six times this season. In the first half this year Philadelphia is averaging 16.8 points and a whopping 212.4 yards. We highly doubt that this Cowboys defense will slow them down. Dallas has permitted 30 points or more in 6 of their last 9 games. The last two weeks they were shredded for 65 combined points against the Saints and Colts. Dallas is a much better team right now than they were before the coaching change. But the fact remains that this is a team that has won 9 games or more the past five seasons and had Super Bowl dreams before the year started, now all they can do is play out the season. We know all about the character issues on this team, so if they fall behind early like we expect the energy level will dissipate. We've seen teams all season try to outscore the Eagles with little to no success. And those teams had better stop units than the Cowboys. With that regular season ending loss to Dallas last year Philadelphia was forced to go on the road and play the Cowboys once again in the playoffs. The results were more of the same, a 34-14 loss which ended their season. Coach Reid and company have had this game circled for a long time, and we know how the Eagles have fared in these regular season prime time affairs. Philadelphia is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year and 9-1 ATS overall under the lights in these featured games. With double revenge and the far better defense the Eagles get it done Sunday night. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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12-12-10 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -5.5 | Top | 21-40 | Win | 100 | 46 h 9 m | Show |
Seattle at San Francisco
Big revenge game for the 49ers who were pummeled at Seattle in the season opener 31-6. That was the first game under head coach Pete Carroll and it was a big game for this organization. But since that time the Seahawks have come back down to earth, especially as of late losing 4 of the last 6 times they have taken the field. Seattle's defense has been the main culprit allowing 33 points or more in 4 of the last 6 games. On the season the Seahawks allow 13.6 points and 202.1 yards in the first half. If not for the opening season game against the 49ers as well as facing the offensive weaklings of Carolina and Arizona this defense would be allowing 30.1 points per game. Although the records don't show it the Niners are the better team. And that's backed up by the line on this game as San Francisco is a clear favorite despite trailing the Seahawks in the standing by a full two games. Alex Smith is back under center for the Niners in a move to open up the offense a bit, and against this willing defense it should result in great success. While many will point to the San Francisco scoring unit as being a problem they have hit 20 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. With a trip to San Diego on the horizon for Thursday, this becomes a must win game for the host. With a win here the Niners are back in the divisional race as they end the season with St Louis and Arizona. The last time San Francisco stepped on this field they were embarrassed by Tampa Bay 21-0. It's payback time for the host on Sunday. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-12-10 | Cleveland Browns +1 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
Cleveland at Buffalo
The Browns have been very competitive on the road this season losing just once by more than a touchdown. That was against the hated Steelers who always beat up on Cleveland. The other games were outright wins at New Orleans and Miami, with a 7 point loss at Baltimore, a 3 point loss at Tampa Bay and a 4 point last second loss at Jacksonville. Other than the Dolphins every other team is currently in playoff contention. That can't be said of the Bills who have been playing for fun pretty much the entire year. To show just how under the radar this Cleveland team has been this year we point out that they faced in consecutive games Atlanta, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, New England and the New York Jets. The Browns were outscored in those games 105-104. They have played three teams who are not in the playoff hunt, Cincinnati, Carolina and Miami. The Browns won all three of those games. We've taken advantage of an underrated Bills team much of the second half of the season. But last week Buffalo laid down against the Vikings and it could be that they have finally given their all. After starting the season 0-7 they have been searching for respect and after back to back wins over Detroit and Cincinnati they achieved that goal. But the last two weeks they went to overtime against a very physical Pittsburgh team and were manhandled by the potent Minnesota running game. With nothing to play for but pride the Bills may pack it in here with three straight divisional games to end the season. Buffalo is allowing 15.2 points and 203.1 yards in the first half this season. That's a telling stat that shows just how bad this defense is when the game is still undecided. Cleveland has scored 20 points or more in 5 of 6 games and they should find a lot of success offensively on Sunday. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-05-10 | St. Louis Rams -3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
St Louis at Arizona
While it's finally looking like the Rams are getting some believers the truth of the matter is this line remains too low. Now 8-3 ATS on the season this St Louis team is far better than anyone gives them credit for. They only have two losses on the season by more than four points and the loss against the Falcons two weeks ago was much closer than the final 17 point margin. St Louis finally broke through with a road win last week at Denver and they come into this game very confident in their abilities. After all they are tied for first place with Seattle and the only tough game remaining on the schedule is at New Orleans next week. We said it before last Monday Night and we will repeat it here. The Arizona Cardinals along with the Carolina Panthers are the two worst teams in the league, and that's by a substantial margin. The Cardinal defense is simply horrendous. We saw the 49ers completely blow them off the ball and a back-up running back became noteworthy once again. Arizona has permitted every opponent since week two of the season to score 20 points or more. The Cardinals are a team coming off 10 and 9 win seasons and they really thought they would be a playoff team this year. Now as they enter play Sunday with a 3-8 record it's all about the stats for this Cardinal offense. St Louis dropped a heartbreaking 17-13 decision to Arizona in the season opener. But since that time these are totally different teams. Look for St Louis to put the pedal to the metal as they win this one going away. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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12-05-10 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions +6 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
Chicago at Detroit
You can't blame the Bears for taking the Lions lightly in this spot. After all they just played two weeks ago in a nationally televised affair with the Dolphins, and last week they upset the Eagles. They end the season facing New England, Minnesota, the NY Jets and Green Bay. If there ever was a flat spot in the schedule it would be here against a Lions team using a 3rd straight signal caller, especially considering the Bears have beaten the Lions the last five meetings by margins of 5, 14, 24, 4 and 27 points. Right now the Bears are fat and happy after winning four straight games. They are the new flavor of the month in the NFC. Just ask the Giants and Eagles how that feels. Say what you want about the 2-9 Lions but they give a full effort every week. And you know they have been itching to get back on the field after blowing a 17-10 halftime lead over the Patriots on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions are 7-4 ATS on the season because they are undervalued in the minds of the betting public. After that collapse on national television and with a 3rd string quarterback nobody will want the Lions here. Which is exactly why Detroit is the correct play in this game. If you remember back to opening week Detroit was robbed of a victory when they played the Bears as Calvin Johnson's apparent touchdown was taken away by a strange rule violation. The Lions sure remember it and you can bet they will be playing with fire come Sunday. And as for Drew Stanton being behind center. Is that really a huge drop-off from an injured Matt Stafford or journeyman Shaun Hill? This offense has talent and the defense is much better than what we saw in the second half on Turkey Day. Look for the Lions to play with fire as the Bears bask in their glory off four wins in a row. PLAY DETROIT |
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12-04-10 | Auburn v. South Carolina +6 | Top | 56-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
Auburn & South Carolina at Atlanta
Make no mistake about it this Auburn team has been very lucky to be in the position they sit right now. They won by just 3 points at Mississippi State. They beat Clemson at home by a field goal in overtime. They took advantage of a plus two turnover margin in beating these same Gamecocks by 8 at home. Auburn beat Kentucky by 3 points. The Tigers beat LSU at home by 7 points. And last week coming off a bye they made a huge second half comeback in order to beat Alabama by a single point. It's said it's better to be lucky than good, I guess that's Auburn's season in a nutshell. South Carolina has three losses on the season as they didn't win the lone coin-flip game on their schedule. The Cocks lost at Kentucky by 3 and were pounded in a meaningless game against Arkansas in November. The reason why the game meant nothing to South Carolina was that they had to beat Florida the following week in order to play in this game. So the three losses came in a meaningless game, by 3 on the road at Kentucky and by 8 on the road at Auburn. While the Tigers were involved in close game after close game South Carolina's wins were by margins of 28, 11, 19, 14, 14, 14, 12, 45 and 22 points. Auburn struggled at home against Clemson yet South Carolina beat them on the road by 22. The Tigers almost had their season end last week at Alabama yet the Gamecocks beat the Tide by 14 points. If the coin-flip games would have gone any other way the Gamecocks would likely be favored here. We expect the outright upset in revenge. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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11-28-10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Baltimore Ravens -7 | Top | 10-17 | Push | 0 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Simply put the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most overrated team in the NFL. They are 7-3 on the season with exactly zero wins over a team with at least a .500 record. The combined record of the teams they have defeated is 17-54. They have played three quality teams, losing by 25 hosting Pittsburgh, by 25 hosting New Orleans and by 6 at Atlanta. In looking at first half stats they are being outscored 15.1-10.9 and outgained 191.4-149.9. Next week they face off with the Falcons in what likely will be for the division crown. They follow that game up with four more NFC opponents to end the season. Off back to back victories we simply can't see the Bucs putting in the extra effort they need this week against a very tough AFC opponent. Baltimore also has a key divisional game on deck but they have been dominant in M&T Bank Stadium. The last 10+ years Baltimore is an amazing 43-20-2 ATS as home favorites. And as opposed to the Buccaneers they have beaten the likes of the Jets and Steelers. The Baltimore defense has held all but two teams to 20 points or less in regulation all season, they will give Josh Freeman fits. Only once all year has a team scored more than 10 points against Baltimore in the first half, and the Ravens still won that game. Offensively Baltimore has scored 37, 21, 26, 37, 20 and 30 points the past six games. They can put enough points on the board to win this going away. In the last six games in this building Baltimore is averaging 32.8 ppg. This line should have been double digits and we take full advantage. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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11-28-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Buffalo Bills +7 | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
The Steelers are sure to be a bit preoccupied this week considering their schedule. If there ever was a flat spot it comes on the road against the Bills. The last four weeks the Steelers faced the Super Bowl Champion Saints on Sunday Night Football. Played division rival Cincinnati on Monday Night Football. Played multi Super Bowl Champion New England on Sunday Night Football, and last week they pasted the Oakland Raiders 35-3 at home. After facing Buffalo on Sunday they travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens on Sunday Night Football in a game that could decide the divisional crown. The next two weeks they take on divisional rival Cincinnati before hosting the New York Jets, a likely playoff opponent. The Steeler defense which is their trademark hasn't been nearly as dominating as of late. Before holding down the Raiders last week they had allowed 39, 21, 20 and 22 points the four previous games. Buffalo is a team that is gaining confidence by the week. They have won the past two games and have cashed to the tune of 4-0-1 the last five weeks. Ever since the bye week this has been a totally different team. Their three losses since the bye have all been by three point margins, at Baltimore, at Kansas City and in Toronto against the Bears. All of those teams have their sites on the postseason this year. This game is very important for Buffalo even though they know they aren't going anywhere. Beating the Lions and Bengals is fine and dandy but now they need to prove to themselves that they can get over the hump against a good football team. They catch the Steelers at just the right time to shock the league. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-28-10 | Tennessee Titans +6.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 0-20 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
Tennessee at Houston
Talk about an overreaction. The Titans would have likely been a three point underdog here with Vince Young behind center. Even with Kerry Collins they would be no more than a four point dog. But now with Rusty Smith the Titans are catching roughly a touchdown. The league's best running back and one of the top coaches in the NFL catching this type of spread against one of the most overrated teams in the league. Tennessee is 3-2 straight up on the road with wins at the NY Giants, Dallas and Jacksonville, all by touchdown or larger margins. Off three straight losses it's do or die time for Jeff Fisher and the Titans. This is a must win game after dropping an overtime decision last week to the Redskins who were in a very similar situation. With four straight divisional games in the next month this game is an all-in game for the visitor. Tennessee has beaten Houston 8 of the last 10 meetings with the losses coming by 1 and 3 points. Houston is in the midst of a brutally tough schedule. Since their bye week they have played Indianapolis, San Diego, Jacksonville and the NY Jets. The next four games are against Tennessee twice, Philadelphia and Baltimore. The problem with the Texans is that they continually fall behind early and are forced to play catch-up the entire second half. Thus far this year they are being outscored on average in the first half 15.3-8.0 while being outgained 198.3-135.2. In 7 of their 10 games they have scored 7 points or less in the opening half. The last two years the Texans have faced Tennessee four times and they have averaged just 19 points per game. They simply can't score enough against this Tennessee defense to lay a number this size. Look for this one to go down to the wire with the Titans pulling out a game they know they can win. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-27-10 | Washington Huskies v. California -6.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 27 m | Show |
Washington at California
The Huskies haven't been very competitive on the road this year losing the last two games by margins of 37 and 30 points. While they did upset USC in a huge game for head coach Greg Sarkisian and his staff, they also lost at BYU in the opener when the Cougars were simply terrible. Off a bye last week Washington pulled away in the second half and beat UCLA 24-7 at home. But now with a road trip to Pullman next week to face instate rival Washington State, the Huskies are in a sandwich situation. The Golden Bears have been simply awful away from Berkeley but at home they have been dominant. When not facing the top ranked teams of Oregon and Stanford the Bears have won by margins of 49, 45, 28 and 33 points here. Even in a loss to Oregon they gave the top ranked team in the country all they could handle in a 15-13 defeat. Last week they ran into a very physical Stanford team and the Cardinal simply dominated. But against the more finesse teams on the schedule California has been unstoppable here. Cal has dominated Washington in Berkeley winning by margins of 41, 7 and 47 points the last three visits. Last year the Huskies embarrassed the Golden Bears 42-10 in Seattle, look for payback from the host. PLAY CALIFORNIA |
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11-26-10 | Buffalo v. Akron -1 | Top | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
Buffalo at Akron
We went against the Bulls last week for our college football game of the year and we do so again here. Buffalo simply doesn't put up enough points to be in this price range on the road. The last six weeks they have produced 17, 3, 17, 9, 0 and 14 points. Keep in mind all those games came against the weak defenses of the MAC. The Bulls have beaten Akron the past three years and the Zips are winless, but Akron is the only one of these two squads showing heart right now. The Zips are the last winless team in the FCS and you know they don't want that stat in the record books. Despite an 0-11 record Akron continues to play for first year coach Rob Ianello. Last week they took Ball State to the wire in a five point home cover. The previous game they took Ball State to overtime on the road. In the game preceding that Akron trailed Temple on the road at halftime 6-0 before the physical Owls wore them down in the second half. The Zips aren't an offense force by any means but this game is all about heart and pride, two things the Bulls have a shortage of right now. Last week we backed the one win Eagles this week the winless Zips make up money. PLAY AKRON |
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11-21-10 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
NY Giants at Philadelphia
The Giants have had a hell of a time stopping this Eagle offense as of late and now they must deal with the hottest quarterback in the league. The last four meetings Philadelphia has posted point totals of 45, 40, 20 and 31 points against this New York stop unit. And while the Giants are known for rushing the passer they have been burned by good offenses all season. Dallas scored 35 and 33 in their two meetings. Indianapolis produced 38 points against this defense. Tennessee scored 29 when they faced off earlier this year. Philadelphia has scored 26 points or more in 6 of their 9 games. The last five games they have averaged 32.4 points. Needless to say the Eagles will be putting some points on the board this week. While the Giants defense has been suspect against quality offenses, they too can find success. Five times this season they have scored 28 points or more and over the past five games they are averaging 32.8 ppg. Last week the Cowboys threw a few wrinkles at the Giants that they didn't expect. But you know they will be fully prepared here. Because Philadelphia has such a quick strike offense their defense tends to be exposed. Teams with both a running and passing attack can have their way on this stop unit. We look for this to be another big time shootout between two of the better scoring teams in the league. The last meeting featured 83 points and a repeat is in the cards. PLAY OVER |
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11-21-10 | Indianapolis Colts +4 v. New England Patriots | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
Indianapolis at New England
We were on the Colts last week and they cost us a perfect 5-0 day as Cincinnati came through a fully opened back door. But we doubt that will be the case this week as the Indy players know how dangerous Tom Brady can be. The Colts have dominated the first half this year, a half in which the men separate themselves from the boys. Indy is outscoring the opposition by 7.6 points and outgaining them by a whopping 46.6 yards in the opening stanza. At 6-3 on the season and with New England, San Diego, a rejuvenated Dallas and Tennessee the next four weeks, the Colts need to pick up their play in a hurry. And we feel they will. The receivers dropped a lot of passes from Manning last week and that simply won't do. You can bet the vocal leader of this team will have his troops ready after blowing that lead a week ago. New England looked terrific last week in Pittsburgh, a full week after the Browns put them in their place in Cleveland. The Patriot coaching staff has always played well against the Steelers but they have really struggled against the Colts. The last five years these teams have met and Indy is 4-1 straight up in this series. The last four games have all been decided by seven points or less with the last three margins being by 1, 3 and 4 points. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Pats who must head to Detroit for a Thanksgiving game against the Lions on Thursday. The Colts on the other hand don't take the field again until Sunday night. By now we all know how the NFL works. The teams that looked great last week often come crashing down the following week. This week it's the Patriots who take the fall. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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11-21-10 | Buffalo Bills +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 49-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
Buffalo at Cincinnati
How is it possible to have the most improved team in the league over the past four games with nobody knowing it? But that's exactly what the Buffalo Bills have done after starting the season 0-5 while being outscored by a combined 74 points. The last four games Buffalo lost by 3 at Baltimore, lost by 3 in overtime at Kansas City, lost by 3 in Toronto against Chicago and beat Detroit at home by 2. Now they are catching six points at Cincinnati? This is a team starting to believe in themselves that are still considered the dregs of the league. Buffalo is the kind of under the radar bargain you rarely find in the NFL. They are 3-1 ATS in road games this year and 3-0-1 ATS the last four times they have taken the field. Cincinnati entered the season as the defending AFC North Champions. They are currently 2-7 having lost six straight games. Two weeks ago they openly talked about beating the Steelers in a must win situation. They lost at home to Pittsburgh 27-21. Last week they had a negative five turnover game against the Colts but to their credit they refused to give up sneaking in with a one point spread cover. But now at 2-7 and way out of the playoff race do you really think this cast of characters will self motivate themselves to play well against what they consider a bad football team? After all Cincinnati is just 1-8 ATS as a home favorite the past three seasons. After facing Buffalo the Bengals take on the Jets, Saints, Steelers, Browns, Chargers and Ravens to end the season. Since this is the Holiday Season you can put a fork in them, their season is over. And if we know that you know this cast of characters has already planned their off-season vacations. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-20-10 | Tennessee -9 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 48 h 0 m | Show |
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
These two clubs are going in opposite directions. The Volunteers have cashed three straight games including impressive wins over Memphis 50-14 and Mississippi 51-14. Derek Dooley in his first season in Knoxville is turning this program around and he will take great pride in pounding in-state rival Vanderbilt. The Vols have won 11 of the last 12 meetings including a 15 point victory a year ago at home. The last time Tennessee visited Vandy they won by a 10 point margin in 2008. As long as the Volunteers don't turn the ball over they are an excellent pointspread proposition. They are just 1-3 ATS when having a turnover deficit. A telling stat happened three weeks ago when Tennessee gave South Carolina all they could handle in a 38-24 loss. Despite a negative three turnover disadvantage the Volunteers covered the spread by 3 1/2 points. That type of TO deficit very rarely results in a pointspread cover unless the betting public is dead wrong with their evaluation of a team, and that has proven out the last two weeks with spread covers of 16 and 35 points. Vanderbilt is having a season they would like to forget. Right before the year started long time coach Bobby Johnson abruptly quit the program. That left the team with many question marks and after a 2-8 start to the season not many of those questions have been answered. Vanderbilt has one of the weakest offenses in the nation having been shutout in the first half an amazing three times. The Commodores have dropped five straight games ATS but they end the season with a winnable game next week when the host the equally woeful Wake Forest Demon Deacons. I spoke earlier in reference to turnover margins. Vandy has lost that TO margin five times this year in turn losing to the spread each time by a combined 83 points. Vandy knows a win over Tennessee could make their season but the Commodores just don't have the horses to pull it off. Tennessee has shown no reason to pull of the reigns against other competition and to beat their in-state rival by a margin would be a recruiting statement for Dooley in his first year at UT> PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-20-10 | Arkansas -3 v. Mississippi State | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
Arkansas at Mississippi State
We knew coming into the season that Arkansas would be dynamic offensively and it has surely proven out. The last five weeks they have scored 43, 38, 49, 41 and 58 points. But the defense has been a major surprise as they have held all but one opponent to 24 points or less. That includes Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M and South Carolina. The Razorbacks have gone on the road and posted a 3-1 straight up record with the lone loss coming at Auburn. In fact, their only losses came against Alabama, the defending national champion, and Auburn who is currently slated to play in the BCS title game. Arkansas has beaten Mississippi State 8 of the last 9 meetings including a 42-21 home win last year. We were on the Bulldogs last week against Alabama with poor results. The situation screamed for a play on Mississippi State off a bye with Alabama's national title hopes ruined. But the Tide dominated play and came away with a 30-10 victory that was more lopsided than the final score. The simple truth is that the Bulldogs just don't have the offensive firepower to compete with very good offenses. This is a team that scored 14 against Auburn, 7 against LSU, 10 against Florida and 10 last week against Alabama. Other than Auburn, this Arkansas offense is vastly superior to the those other teams. Mississippi State is 5-5 ATS on the season despite a plus 7 turnover margin. They have yet to cover this year without a turnover advantage going 0-4 ATS losing to the spread by a combined margin of 34 1/2 points. Mississippi State just doesn't have an offense able to trade points with Arkansas and the Razorback defense has held far more dynamic scoring teams in check. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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11-20-10 | Eastern Michigan +7 v. Buffalo | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 56 m | Show |
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo
The Eagles are a team nobody gives any credit to because of a 1-21 straight up record as of late. But this team is improving every week under second year coach Ron English. Eastern Michigan has posted a 4-6 spread record on the year despite losing the turnover battle eight times. They have played the likes of Ohio State, Ohio U, Vanderbilt, and Virginia, all teams that should and did manhandle the Eagles at the point of attack. This team easily stayed under the number last week at Western Michigan and now they take a huge step down in class to face an equally skilled Buffalo team. The Eagles played very competitive ball against the likes of Miami Ohio, a 7 point road loss, Ball State, an overtime road win and last week at Western Michigan. Because of their blowout losses when they were outclassed, especially offensively, this team is thought to be weaker than they truly are. Eastern is 3-3 ATS on the road this season and a perfect 3-0 ATS away in conference. The games at Ohio State, Vanderbilt and Virginia were basically paycheck games for this program. Buffalo enters play at 2-8 on the season. The two wins came over Bowling Green and FCS entrant Rhode Island. The Bulls lost at home to Miami Ohio by 12, the same team Eastern beat on the road, and lost at home to Ball State by 17, the same team the Eagles only lost by 7 to on the road. Buffalo played the last two weeks in front of a national audience against Ohio U and Ball State and next week they appear on TV again as they go to Akron. So this could be considered a sandwich situation for the Bulls. Buffalo is on a 1-5 ATS run in the role of home favorite with outright losses in four of those games. The Bulls have score 3, 17, 9, 0 and 14 points the last five weeks. They are averaging just 11.8 points per game in league play. So I ask you, how can a team scoring less than two touchdowns a game be expected to cover a touchdown spread? We call for the outright upset as Eastern Michigan is simply the better team in this matchup. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-14-10 | St Louis Rams +6 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
St Louis at San Francisco
Once again we find ourselves backing a very underrated Rams squad which is now 6-2 ATS on the season. While they have yet to win on the road this year they have covered 2 of 3 including close losses to the Raiders by 2 and the Bucs by a single point. This sizable underdog has been excellent defensively all season allowing 18 points or less in 7 of their 8 games. That's extremely significant here as the Niners have struggled to put points on the board all year. Both teams are listed as off byes but the clear advantage goes to St Louis who has been home the last two weeks while San Francisco had to travel to and from London. To show how this 49er offense has struggled all you need to see is the last three games. Sure they put up 17 points against the Raiders, 20 against Carolina and 24 vs the Broncos, but they had a plus two turnover advantage in each of those games. When most NFL clubs average that type of output the Niners needed a big turnover edge to get it. That becomes more of a problem against a Rams team that has a +3 turnover ratio on the season. San Francisco is averaging just 7.0 points in the first half this year while the Rams allow just 8.1. In order to take St Louis out of a game you need to get a lead and force a suspect passing game into action. That just hasn't been the case this season for San Francisco who's biggest halftime lead this year has been four points. This one goes down to the wire in a defensive struggle. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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11-14-10 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -7 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
The Bengal players talked openly about the importance of winning last Mondays game against the Steelers. After coming up short in that key divisional showdown Cincinnati is now 2-6 on the season and 1-2 in a division with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. After a 10-6 season the players know this year is shot. Cincinnati has had a long history of tanking and the players on this team have a high percentage of lack of effort guys. Now on a short week they are expected to break their five game losing streak with a trip to face the defending AFC Champs. On the road the Bengals own a single victory, at Carolina the likely worst team in the NFL. They lost at New England by 14, at Cleveland by 3 and at Atlanta by 7, and those games were played when Cincinnati was still in contention. With a winnable game hosting Buffalo next week followed by a nationally televised Thanksgiving contest at the NY Jets, what game do you think the Bengals will mail in? Indianapolis is a perfect 2-0 ATS off outright losses this year covering by a combined 23 points. Both those games came right here at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indy is a perfect 3-0 ATS here this year outscoring the opposition 87-40. All three teams they faced, the Giants, Chiefs and Texans are all better than the Bengals. With New England and San Diego on deck it's time for Manning and company to once again build up team confidence with a blowout home win. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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11-14-10 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
Minnesota at Chicago
The Vikings have been a money burner all season long with a 2-6 spread record. The two covers were by a single point hosting Detroit and by 1 1/2 points hosting Dallas. The last time we looked neither of those clubs were in the playoff hunt, and neither are the Vikings. Sure the experts will say that if they win the next two weeks against Chicago and Green Bay they will be right in the think of the playoff chase. But why all of a sudden should this tiger change its spots. It's very clear that the team and the coaching staff are on totally different pages. The quarterback wants the headlines while the best offensive player is left out in the cold at running back. Minnesota is averaging just 8.0 points in the first half this season. With all that talent on the offensive side of the ball that's all they can produce? Minnesota hasn't surpassed 24 points in regulation at any time this season. Last week a terrible road team in the Arizona Cardinals shut them down completely for 3 of 4 quarters. The Vikings have dropped 4 of the last 5 meetings at Soldier Field with the lone victory coming by 3 points. The Bears came out of their bye week with the same defensive intensity they have shown all season. Not a single team has scored more than 23 points against this defense with 6 of 8 teams being held to 19 points or less. While the Viking defense has underperformed this season the Bear defense has been stellar. That's especially impressive when you consider the bad field position they have been put in all season long because of the lack of protection from the offensive line. The Bears aren't world beaters by any means offensively but they can more than hold their own here. The linesmaker is trying to tell us that the 3-5 Vikings are 4 points better than the 5-3 Bears on a neutral field. While Chicago isn't likely deserving of their record, they are equally as poor as the Vikings, with a much better defense. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-13-10 | Mississippi State Bulldogs +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
Mississippi State at Alabama
Great spot here for the 7-2 Bulldogs with an extra week of preparation. Mississippi was uncompetitive with Alabama the last two seasons but this Bulldogs squad is the best seen in years in Starkville. The only two losses on the season for Miss State was against Auburn and LSU, two of the top teams in the country. The Auburn loss was by just 3 points as they gave the undefeated Tigers all they could handle. The Bulldogs defense has been stout all season holding every opponent to less than 30 points. The high octane offenses of Auburn and Houston could only combine for 41 points. What kind of motivation can this Alabama team have after losing their second game of the season last week at LSU. That loss knocks them out of any chance to defend their national title and they don't have a meaningful game until November 26th when they take on Auburn. After beating Mississippi State by a combined margin of 53 points the last two seasons what is the motivation for Alabama? Under Nick Saban the Tide is now 1-7 ATS off a straight up loss including coming up short by 7 points earlier this season against Mississippi. An outright underdog win would not surprise us here. PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-13-10 | Texas A&M Aggies v. Baylor +3 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
Texas A&M at Baylor
Huge letdown spot for the Aggies after pulling the upset last week over Oklahoma. They had lost 10 of the last 11 meetings in the series and the win is sure to leave this team underprepared. After all they beat these same Baylor Bears last year 38-3, and with a home game with Nebraska on deck our money is on the Aggies coming up short here. Texas A&M has lost outright in 11 of their last 16 true road games. The last time they played at Baylor the Bears came away with a 20 point victory. With Nebraska on deck along with ending the regular season at Texas, this game is the least important contest on the Texas A&M schedule. Baylor knows letdowns very well after knocking off Texas two weeks ago they laid an egg last week at Oklahoma State. The Bears had dropped 12 straight games to the Longhorns and they were still celebrating that rare victory heading into Stillwater. But now after giving up a whopping 55 points we expect the Bears to be in an angry mood. In last years game they were held to a season low 3 points by the Aggies after scoring 41 points the prior year. Baylor is undefeated on the season here at Floyd Casey Stadium and we expect a big bounce back performance. PLAY BAYLOR |
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11-13-10 | BYU Cougars v. Colorado State Rams +7 | Top | 49-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
BYU at Colorado State
The Cougars are getting way too much respect for winning their last two games against Wyoming and UNLV. After all they really struggled to beat an offensively weak Cowboys squad at home and UNLV is one of the worst teams in the FBS. Despite the 55 points the Cougars laid on the Rebels last week this team still has trouble scoring. They haven't produced more than 25 points against any other opponent. On the road this year BYU is winless, losing by margins of 21, 24, 15 and 28 points. Steve Fairchild has done a wonderful job at Colorado State this year considering all the season ending injuries this team suffered before even suiting up for a game. To be at 3-7 at this point of the season is a credit to his coaching and the heart of his players. Despite playing a schedule that includes Nevada, TCU, Air Force and Utah the Rams have been very competitive. And they are only getting better having cashed 6 of their last 7 games. These two teams are much closer to even than the linesmaker and the general public believes. We expect this one to come down to the wire with the Rams walking off the field victorious. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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11-11-10 | East Carolina +2 v. UAB | Top | 54-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show |
East Carolina at UAB
It seems that most of the betting world has lost faith in the Pirates off back to back losses to Central Florida and Navy. That suits us just fine as we now get the better team as the underdog off an embarrassing loss. Two weeks ago the Pirates had a huge game at UCF and fell flat against the defensive tough Knights 49-35. Last week they suffered a big letdown and were pummeled by Navy 76-35. They simply had no time or interest in preparing for the option in the middle of conference action and it really showed. Now after allowing a whopping 76 points the betting nation has turned a blind eye to the Pirates. (Maybe that's why Pirates wear an eye patch). East Carolina has beaten UAB the last three years and there is plenty of value backing a winning team after a truly embarrassing performance. UAB on the other hand while off a 14 point loss to Marshall are being overvalued in the betting marketplace. After an outright overtime win at Southern Miss the bettors overreacted making the Blazers a double digit favorite last week. But in reality this is a team that has really struggled at home. In addition to losing against the spread by 24 1/2 points here last week the Blazers only beat Troy at home by a point and lost outright at Legion Field to Florida Atlantic as a 12 1/2 point favorite. Look for East Carolina to return to form with a solid road victory. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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11-07-10 | New England Patriots v. Cleveland Browns +5.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
New England at Cleveland
This is an extreme flat spot for the Patriots. Before the bye they played three straight games against division rivals New York, Buffalo and Miami. The later on Monday Night Football. Coming out of the bye they faced two of their biggest AFC rivals in Baltimore and San Diego. Last week they hosted a very good Minnesota team and ex-Patriot Randy Moss. The next two weeks New England faces off with Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football and their huge rival Indianapolis. In the meantime they face the downtrodden Cleveland Browns and ex-Patriot assistant Eric Mangini. While this game has reduced meaning for the visitor it's a huge game for the host. Cleveland is just 2-5 on the year and has extra time to prepare after a confidence building 30-17 road win at New Orleans. Cleveland has yet to allow more than 20 points to any opponent here in Cleveland and the Patriot offense has taken a major step back since the trade of Moss. Welker still makes the catches but his yards per reception are really down. Mangini has had this game circled and the bye week means he can add additional plays in order to match wits with the New England coaching staff. This is a huge game for the host and we expect the Browns to win this one outright. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-07-10 | Chicago Bears v. Buffalo Bills OVER 41 | Top | 22-19 | Push | 0 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
Buffalo at Chicago
Don't read too much into the Bill's defensive effort last week in a 13-10 overtime defeat at Kansas City. They still surrendered 205 yards in the first half which was more than their season to date average. That's from a team that had allowed a whopping 36.6 ppg their last five outings. Offensively the Bills have already faced some terrific defensive squads which have really held down their production. After facing the likes of Miami, Green Bay, New England, the Jets, Baltimore and Kansas City, the Bills won't be intimidated by the Bear's stop unit. Chicago hasn't been able to protect the quarterback all season and yet they have averaged 18.0 ppg on the year. Now facing a very bad Buffalo defense off an extra week to prepare, we see this as an offensive breakout game for Chicago. All but one opponent has reached at least 14 points against the Bears, with the lone team under that number being the completely offensive incompetent Carolina Panthers. The line has raised slightly from the 40 opener but it's still a heck of a bargain at this price. PLAY OVER |
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11-06-10 | Washington Huskies +36.5 v. Oregon Ducks | Top | 16-53 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
Washington at Oregon
This is a terrific scheduling spot for the Huskies who are off an embarrassing 41-0 home shutout loss to Stanford. Underdogs of 20 or more off a home shutout loss at 14-8 64% ATS the following game. With a bye week on deck the Huskies are focused on one thing this week at practice, shock the country against the number one squad in the land. From an emotional standpoint this is also a big week for the players to prove that they are not just a one man team. Star QB Jake Locker will not play this week and when a big time player misses a game the rest of the team rallies behind him. While Washington has a statement to make, this week this could be a major flat spot in the schedule for the Ducks. After playing on National TV two weeks ago against UCLA, Oregon took on USC last week in their own statement game. With California and their big home field advantage on deck the Ducks could be looking past the lowly Huskies. After all they beat Washington by margins of 24, 34, 21, 20, 24 and 25 points the last six years. We already saw this out of Oregon earlier when they let Washington State hang in the game with a 43-23 win while laying a whopping 36 1/2 points. After being firmly entrenched at #1in the polls and the BCS standings we look for a subpar performance from the Ducks. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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11-06-10 | Illinois Fighting Illini +3 v. Michigan Wolverines | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Illinois at Michigan
The Fighting Illini crushed the Wolverines each of the last two seasons by margins of 38-13 and 45-20. Their only losses have been to Missouri, Ohio State and Michigan State, three of the top ranked teams in the country. The last three games against mid to lower echelon Big 10 opponents resulted in wins by margins of 34, 30 and 20 points. So I ask you, how in the hell are the Illini an underdog here? The last five seasons Illinois is 9-2 as a conference road dog. They are 15-7 ATS catching points in Big 10 action. With Minnesota, Northwestern and Fresno State remaining on the schedule, the Illini can set themselves up with a terrific bowl game by beating the Wolverines here. Defensively Illinois has held every opponent to 26 points or less this season. That includes the likes of the afore mentioned Missouri, Michigan State and Ohio State. They held those clubs to the second lowest point totals of the season fort hose offensive powerhouses. Here is a listing of the teams Michigan has defeated this year: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Massachusetts, Bowling Green and Indiana. Against FBS competition those teams have combined for a grand total of 12 wins, with just 5 of those wins coming against BCS automatic qualifying conferences. In Big 10 action Michigan has beaten only Indiana. They have failed to cover all four games with the losses coming by 17, 10 and 10 points. So once again I ask you, why are the Wolverines favored here? I rest my case until the proceedings become evident on Saturday. Court dismissed. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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11-05-10 | Western Mich +3.5 v. Central Mich | Top | 22-26 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
Western Michigan at Central Michigan
The Broncos of Western have played well on the road in MAC play with straight up wins at Ball State and Akron by a combined score of 101-26. This is the fourth road game in the last five weeks for the Broncos but we're a bit surprised they are an underdog by more than a field goal here. After all they played the Chippewas tough the last three seasons losing by 11 points or less each meeting. And that came against a much superior Central squad who had been dominant behind the quarterbacking of Dan LeFevour. LeFevour was an NFL type quarterback that rarely was given his due. The Chippewas were 38-17 in his four years in the program which is really saying something considering he was forced into action as a true freshmen in Central's opening game against Boston College in 2006. He took over for the injured starter and never let up on his way to a record setting career. But without the star QB the Chippewas are averaging just 20.8 ppg against FBS competition including 7 of 8 games of 25 points or less. Last year Central Michigan averaged 33.9 ppg on the season. The last five games they haven't surpassed 21 points at any time. The defense on the other hand is wilting under the weight of this offense. After allowing 0, 13 and 14 points to start the season the Chips have permitted an average of 30.5 ppg the last six games. After going bowling each of the last four years under the direction of LeFevour Central is now eliminated from playing in the postseason for the first time since 2005. With just two wins over FCS entrant Hampton and perennial doormat Eastern Michigan this team just doesn't deserve to be favored here. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-04-10 | Buffalo Bulls +16 v. Ohio Bobcats | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
Buffalo at Ohio U
The Bulls have not had a good season under first year coach Jeff Quinn but they have traditionally been a solid road underdog. While 1-3 in that role this season the Bulls are 18-8 catching points the past few seasons. Off two games where the offense produced a grand total of 9 combined points nobody and their brother want anything to do with Buffalo. That's exactly the best time to back a team, off recent poor performances when the line is inflated. While the stats say this game won't be competitive you just have to dig deeper in order to pull out the pointspread winner. Buffalo has played by far the tougher of the two schedules having faced the likes of Baylor, Central Florida, Connecticut, Northern Illinois and Temple. Ohio U on the other hand played Ohio State and ........nobody. The next two best teams they played were Toledo and Marshall, and by the way they lost both of those games in straight up fashion. We went against Ohio U last week and had an easy time of it as they trailed Louisiana Lafayette at home at the half and managed just a 7 point victory in a game in which they were favored by 17 points. Not only is this an overlay based on strength of schedule but Ohio goes to Temple next Tuesday to take on the Owls for the MAC East Division title. By playing two games in a six day span which contest do you feel Frank Solich and company will have circled? While Ohio has a huge game on deck this is the biggest game on the schedule for Buffalo who rarely have their program featured on the national level. The last three seasons the Bulls have outscored the Bobcats by a combined count of 87-56. While it's pretty clear Ohio U is the better team this season there is no way they will be the more focused team here. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-01-10 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts -5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Houston at Indianapolis
Revenge time for the Colts who lost opening week at home to the Texans. That win broke a long losing streak in this series for Houston. The Texans enter play at 4-2 on the season and have permitted 24 or more points to every opponent. That includes stagnant offenses like Washington, the Giants and Dallas. Houston has lost the last five visits to this building by an average of 13 points per game. They start out behind the eight ball each and every game this year being outscored on average 15-3-7.8 in the first half. Look for the Colts to take advantage early and take a sizable lead into the break. Like Houston, Indy is 4-2 on the season but they can't afford to lose the divisional tie breaker to the Texans. With Tennessee having a big year this is a must win game for the host. The Colts are outscoring the opposition in the first half by an average score of 14.0-6.7. With Houston allowing 209.8 yards in the opening half Manning and company will really carve up this defense from the start. The Colts are averaging 203.7 yards in the opening half. Obviously we like the Colts in the game but the stronger play may be Indy in the first half. We've had great success playing first half bets this season and it's very likely to carry over for the full game. Play Indy for the game and if you want the extra action the first half play also. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-31-10 | Green Bay Packers +6.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Green Bay at New York Jets
Despite a 4-3 record and numerous injuries the Packers continue to be an undervalued squad. Going into the season Green Bay was expected to challenge for the NFC title and the defense has actually played better than expected. The Packers haven't lost by more than this spread in 11 of 13 road games with just one loss coming by more than a touchdown. Green Bay is on a 23-11-1 run catching points on the road as this team is always a dangerous underdog. While this game is sandwiched between Sunday Night Football affairs against the Vikings and Cowboys, Green Bay can't afford a letdown. The bye week for New York couldn't have come at a worse time as they were really on a roll winning five straight games. That disruption could really hurt a team that has to come out of the bye a bit full of themselves. Everyone is telling them that they are the team to beat and it can't help but hurt your motivation. With Green Bay, Detroit and Cleveland on deck the Jets may be in cruise control here. Keep in mind that despite winning a combined 18 games the last two seasons the Jets were only 9-7 straight up at home. This is too many points for New York to lay off a bye week. The Packers keep this close and give themselves a chance for the outright victory. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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