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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-07-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -4.5 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
716 St Mary’s & Gonzaga We’ve been waiting for this matchup as the betting public and ourselves are at opposite ends regarding the Gaels. Gonzaga has won 11 of the last 13 meetings and this year the difference in quality of these teams is the largest in quite some time. The Gaels haven’t beaten a team heading to the dance since early December. The two meetings against the Zags resulted in losses by 23 and 10 points. Coming off a complete blowout over BYU this team is clearly overrated here. Lay the number with the Zags who are still looking for a #1 seed. PLAY GONZAGA |
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03-01-17 | Nevada v. San Jose State +7 | Top | 82-67 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
568 Nevada at San Jose State Major sandwich spot here for the Wolf Pack after blowing out in-state rival UNLV with a major game vs Colorado State on deck to end the regular season. Nevada is 12-4 in conference and 23-6 overall but this is likely going to be a one bid conference. Colorado State is 13-4 in the Mountain West and 21-9 overall so that game on Saturday will go a long way for postseason play for both those teams. San Jose State is a solid 7-9 in league action this year and a hell of a lot better team than a year ago. With a 14-13 record and a trip to Wyoming on deck this team will be fighting extremely hard to get a victory, assuring a winning regular season. We look for this game to go down to the wire. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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02-25-17 | Southern Miss v. North Texas -5 | Top | 76-53 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
562 Southern Miss at North Texas The Golden Eagles are not a deep team at all which is why it has played well on long rest and very poorly on short rest. On Thursday this team laid it all on the line at a 15 point underdog at Rice and took the Owls to the wire in a 72-71 loss. Now less than 48 hours later this club is at North Texas in a competitively priced game. Southern Miss is 0-14 straight up this season when facing a team away from home. North Texas is seeking revenge for a 76-65 loss earlier at Southern Miss. While the Mean Green are only 8-19 on the season its effective field goal difference is only -3.0% on the year, compared to the Golden Eagles -7.8%. Cheap line with the host here as North Texas wins by double digits. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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02-25-17 | Texas Tech +7 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 63-80 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
549 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State Nice price here on the road underdog Red Raiders who are stepping down in class after facing Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia and Iowa State. Not to mention seeking revenge for an embarrassing 19 point home loss to these Cowboys. Despite a lowly 5-10 conference record Texas Tech is 17-11 on the season with a 3.2% effective field goal advantage over the opposition. Oklahoma State is 19-9 and 8-7 in Big12 action but owns a lesser 2.0% effective field goal edge on the season. Revenge time for the Red Raiders. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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02-20-17 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia -7 | Top | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
704 Miami Florida at Virginia Miami has won 2 of the last 7 in this series although these teams have split 3-3 ATS in Virginia. Miami is playing pretty good ball right now, especially defensively allowing just 47.1% effective field goals on the season. Virginia has the same conference record of 8-6 as the Hurricanes, but the Cavaliers have dropped three straight heading into this contest. With losses to North Carolina, Duke and Virginia Tech the betting public has soured on the defensive minded Cavs. But keep in mind this team has a 7.9 effective field goal advantage, shooting 54.0 and allowing 46.1. Those numbers cannot be denied. We made this line 11.4 which gives us a huge edge in this one, as we for one haven’t abandoned the Cavaliers. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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02-19-17 | Rider v. Iona -8 | Top | 103-85 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
880 Rider at Iona Iona is 14-3 SU in this seres and 12-6 ATS. Iona is 8-5 ATS as the series host. The Gaels sit at 11-6 in conference and 18-10 overall. Iona has won 8 of 10 but split the last four games heading into this contest. It won 95-76 less than three weeks ago at Rider. Rider is 14-14 overall and 7-10 on the MAAC. The Broncs play solid defense but lack a scoring punch. In the last three weeks not only did it surrender 95 to this Iona team but 107 in a win at Quinnipiac. That’s a sign that this defense is tiring. After losses in 9 of 12 heading into this contest we can’t expect that stop unit to rebound here on the road. PLAY IONA |
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02-18-17 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -9 | Top | 48-72 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
618 Charlotte at Old Dominion Getting this one early as we expect it to move. We made this 15.6 and the opener was 9.0. Huge lay for the host. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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02-17-17 | Princeton v. Yale +3 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
862 Princeton at Yale Princeton has come up short the last five times visiting Yale ATS. The team is sitting at a perfect 8-0 in conference this is not going to be an easy game for the Tigers. Princeton only beat Yale by eight earlier at home. The Bulldogs are a solid 6-2 in conference with the two losses coming at Princeton and last time out here against Harvard. That’s the only home loss this season for Yale. We have the Bulldogs rated as the favorite here and we are catching points. Can’t pass this one up with the quality Bulldogs team. PLAY YALE |
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02-16-17 | Colorado v. Oregon State +10.5 | Top | 60-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
744 Colorado at Oregon State The Buffaloes enter here having won 5 of 6 as of late, but in our opinion the line has been over adjusted. The home win over Oregon is legit, but the other victories came against lesser opposition. Oregon State is winless in conference and 4-22 overall on the season. But this is an opponent the Beavers can handle. It only lost by 7 earlier in Colorado. This time of year the books inflate the numbers against weak opponents which is why we find plenty of value here with the home dog. Just too many points for the Buffs to lay. PLAY OREGON STATE |
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02-15-17 | St. John's v. Butler -10.5 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
564 St Johns at Butler The Johnnies are treading water right now having split each of its last eight games with losses following wins. Last time out St Johns beat Seton Hall at home and have Marquette on the road on deck. Butler had been cruising along with an 18-3 record before dropping 3 of the last 4 contests. Losses to Providence, Creighton and Georgetown sandwiched between a victory over Marquette. We like to back superior teams after hitting a rough spot, especially at home. Throw in the fact that this is a revenge game for the Bulldogs as it lost 76-73 back at the end of December. Butler has lost back to back home games and this line is very cheap in our eyes. We look for a blowout! PLAY BUTLER |
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02-14-17 | Marist v. St. Peter's -12 | Top | 46-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
758 Marist at St Peters The Red Foxes are just 3-12 in the MAAC this season and have lost seven straight heading into this contest. The last time these two met was on January 26th in a 81-65 home loss for Marist. St Peters is a solid 10-6 in league action and have won 8 of 12 heading into this contest. We made the Peacocks a bigger favorite here than the current line and have no problem laying points into a Red Foxes team playing out the string. PLAY ST PETERS |
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02-11-17 | BYU +3.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 68-52 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
887 BYU at San Francisco The Cougars have won eight straight in this series and this is a key game for both squads. BYU beat San Francisco by 10 at home a month ago and the Cougars normally travel well but are just 2-4 SU on the road this season. That said defense travels and BYU allows a solid 46.7 effective field goal percentage. The Dons have run off 7 of 8 straight up heading into this one, losing at ST Mary’s by 20. San Francisco is a good shooting team but have beaten up on the lesser teams in this conference. We make the Cougars a road favorite of 2.4 here, so obviously we feel the wrong team is favored. PLAY BYU |
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02-10-17 | Nuggets +2 v. Knicks | Top | 131-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
855 Denver at New York Well aware that Gallinari is out tonight for the Nuggets, but the line still favors the road team. The current number says the Nuggets are only one point better on a neutral. Denver enters this game having won 9 of 15, while cashing 6 of 7 when installed as the better team. New York on the other hand has won just 6 of 25 games heading into action tonight. The only wins in the last two weeks came against Charlotte and Brooklyn, likely the two worst teams in the NBA over that span. The Knicks are winless on this home stand with San Antonio on deck. The need is there for the host but the ability has left the building. PLAY DENVER |
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02-07-17 | Syracuse v. Clemson -3 | Top | 82-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
738 Syracuse at Clemson The Orangemen are getting a lot of press after beating the likes of Florida State and Virginia in the last ten days. But keep in mind this team is only 1-5 straight up on the road this season with the only win coming against NC State. Syracuse has dropped 3 of the 4 meetings with the Tigers SU & ATS. Clemson is coming in off a total embarrassment at Florida State, losing by a whopping 48 points. You can bet this Clemson team will be primed for retribution here. PLAY CLEMSON |
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02-07-17 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -6.5 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
730 Wake Forest at Notre Dame The Demon Deacons have dropped the last three meetings all by double digits. Wake is just 4-5 SU on the road this year. Off back to back wins over the likes of Boston College and Georgia Tech we don’t believe this team has the ability to step up in class here. Wake allows opponents 51.7 effective field goal which is a problem especially on the road. The Irish shoot 6.2% better than the opposition in effective field goals. Coming in here off four straight losses this is a must win contest for the host. The last two times Notre Dame played on this court resulted in losses. The only two home losses this season. The Irish should give its best effort of the season tonight. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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02-05-17 | Nebraska +6 v. Iowa | Top | 70-81 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
863 Nebraska at Iowa The Cornhuskers have dropped 6 of 7 as of late which gives us a nice advantage on the road here. Even in losses this team has been very competitive. Nebraska beat Iowa earlier at home 93-90 as a 2 1/2 point favorite. Iowa itself has lost 3 of 5 with the victories coming against an inconsistent Ohio State team and a poor Rutgers squad. Despite the revenge motive we can’t back this Hawkeyes team laying points. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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01-31-17 | Manhattan v. Fairfield -2.5 | Top | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
764 Manhattan at Fairfield The Jaspers have picked up its play in the MAAC since losing at home to Fairfield 97-79 early in the month. But in our opinion this line is very short for the host. Despite dropping 5 of 6 we still have the Stags rated as the better team. Fairfield has also cashed 5 of the last 6 meetings hosting Manhattan. Off a confidence building win over Marist we will back the Stags to sweep the season series. PLAY FAIRFIELD |
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01-30-17 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma +2 | Top | 68-66 | Push | 0 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
526 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma The Cowboys enter this game as the much hotter team, but this club has really struggled in Norman. The Sooners have cashed 7 straight in this building against Oklahoma State and have won the last seven games between them in straight up fashion. The Cowboys enter play off three great defensive wins against Arkansas, TCU and Texas Tech. But keep in mind it had lost six straight heading into that threesome. Oklahoma is down this year which is something you just can’t overlook. By even so this is still a top 60 squad getting points at home against a hated rival. History has shown that the Sooners rise up in this matchup and we agree the host is the side here. Coming off an embarrassing 32 point loss on this court last time out against Florida, we see a big bounce back here. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-27-17 | Wizards +4 v. Hawks | Top | 112-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
863 Washington at Atlanta The Wizards just had a showdown with Boston that mean’t a great deal to this team, but the line adjustment isn’t warranted. That game was three days ago, plenty of time to get ready for a top contender for the playoffs. Washington has cashed 7 straight and is now on a 19-6 spread run. The first two meetings showed by the closing line that Atlanta graded out as 1 and 1 1/2 points better. Since that time it’s clear to us that the Wizards are playing much better ball, yet this line has them in the same price range. Just in the last two weeks the Hawks were in the same price range at home against Chicago and Milwaukee, Washington is playing far better ball than those two. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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01-25-17 | Heat v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
506 Miami at Brooklyn Tough spot for the Heat here after upsetting the best team in the NBA and now facing the worst. A trip to Chicago is on deck against former All-Star Wade. Miami has won exactly once on the road since December 9th, yet it is expected to not only win but cover tonight in Brooklyn. The Heat have only been favored in this range once all season, 7 1/2 points better than Philadelphia in November. Miami actually lost that game straight up 101-94. This is not the kind of role the Heat have had success in. Brooklyn has this game sandwiched between San Antonio and Cleveland. The Nets are 12-8 ATS on the season when playing a team 6-10 points better than it is. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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01-24-17 | Clippers v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
708 LA Clippers at Philadelphia Both teams will be without its best players tonight as Paul and Embiid are on the sidelines. Blake Griffin returns to the lineup for the Clippers which is a major reason why this line has jumped from the overnights. But is having him back with tons of rust a good thing? The Clippers went all out yesterday in an impressive win at Atlanta, now its playing in the second game of a back to back against a younger team with fresh legs. LA also has hated rival Golden State on deck. Before playing the Warriors or Cavaliers this year, (The two teams in the NBA Finals) LA has really struggled. How bout losing outright to Brooklyn as a 10 1/2 point favorite, and losing outright to Indiana as an 11 1/2 point chalk. The Sixers have won 8 of its last 11 games in straight up fashion. When playing a team that is 6-10 points better on a neutral Philadelphia has cashed 13 of 20. The Sixers are a team on the rise and its used to not playing with Embiid this season as the team rests him in back to back games. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic +13.5 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
832 Golden State at Orlando Tough spot for the Warriors in the first of a back to back night, after facing Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Houston. Golden State is just 10-19 ATS on the season when favored over a team that is 11 points or worse power rated. Orlando is a solid 8-4 ATS when playing a team that is 6 or more points better on a neutral. The current line says that the Warriors are 16 points better in this matchup. With Orlando in the middle of a three game home stand we will back the home dog in an early start contest. PLAY ORLANDO |
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01-21-17 | Blazers v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 127-123 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
502 Portland at Boston Blazers in the second game of a back to back after going to the wire at Philadelphia last night. This is the third game in four days and the final game on this four game trip. Portland can look forward to a five game home stand that starts on Wednesday. Boston is off a home loss to the Knicks. The Celtics have been an excellent 16-7 ATS when playing a team 0-5 points weaker than itself. This is the only Boston game in a five day span. PLAY BOSTON |
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01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
308 Green Bay at Dallas The first time these two played all the talk was about the Cowboys running game against the Packers run defense. Dallas won that battle and we expect more of the same here. Dallas has multiple offensive weapons while the Packers will be playing shorthanded at receiver without Jordy Nelson. We trust the Dallas defense over the Packers, and the extra week of rest should be a big advantage for the host. PLAY DALLAS |
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01-14-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7 | Top | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
672 St Marys at Gonzaga This rivalry battle comes down to who can dictate the pace. St Mary wants to slow the ball down ranking 350th in the country in adjusted tempo, while the Zags are more middle of the pack. The home team and or favorite normally dictate pace and the would be Gonzaga on both counts. The Zags have dominated this series with its biggest league rival, and St Mary has played the easier schedule of these two. We will ride the host to win this one by double digits. PLAY GONZAGA |
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01-12-17 | Purdue v. Iowa +5 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
560 Purdue at Iowa The Boilermakers have been the better team as of late and it still struggles with the Hawkeyes, especially on the road. Iowa has been favored just twice in the last ten meetings, yet it has won five of those games outright. At home Iowa has cashed 7 of 8 games including outright underdog wins as 5, 9 and 14 1/2 point underdogs. Purdue has just one outright win in a true road game all season and that was by a single point at Ohio State. Iowa was blown out at Purdue just two weeks ago, we see revenge for the host here. PLAY IOWA |
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01-10-17 | Cavs -2 v. Jazz | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
511 Cleveland at Utah Terrible scheduling spot for the Jazz here who return home from a five game eastern road trip. The Utah offense has really struggled as of late scoring 79, 94 and 93 points. Through December 21st which is the last day we charted this angle, teams off a 5+ game road trip were 7-13 ATS this season. It’s been a consistent winner year in and year out. Utah is also a poor 1-7 ATS on the season when playing a team that is 0-5 points better than them. The current line last the Cavs five points the superior team. Throw in the fact that Cleveland is off back to back games in which it blew sizable leads, and we have a Cavs team with something to prove. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
152 Clemson & Alabama in Tampa We played Clemson in this game last year and walked away with the cash. But we’ve watched every Tigers game this year and this team isn’t as strong as a year ago. The defense remains solid but the offense has been very inconsistent. The line advantage that the Tigers had over Ohio State will not be repeated here as Clemson and Alabama have the two best combined offensive and defensive lines in college football. On the season Clemson is 1-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while Alabama is 4-1 ATS. That’s a sizable edge for the Tide in a game where turnovers will determine the winner. Going in to last week the consensus line on this game was anywhere from 9 to 11. Based on Clemson playing its best game of the season this line has dropped about three points. The line value is on the favorite and we will lay the points with the Tide. PLAY ALABAMA |
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01-08-17 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
539 Ohio State at Minnesota The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series and enter here off back to back 5 and 1 point losses to Illinois and Purdue. With a trip to Wisconsin on deck this is an early season must win spot for the Buckeyes. Minnesota enters with an outstanding 14-2 record on the season, winning 8 of the last 9. After road wins at Purdue and Northwestern this club enters play tonight fat and happy. But keep in mind both of these teams have played better on the road than at home this season, so we feel this line is a bit inflated. Look for this one to come down to the wire. PLAY OHIO STATE |
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01-07-17 | San Diego State v. Boise State -3 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
878 San Diego State at Boise State The Aztecs have owned the Mountain West Conference for years, but Boise has really given them problems as of late. The Broncos have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with defense showing the way in each showdown. When looking at how these teams have done when stepping up this year we find San Diego State 1-2 when facing Top 100 Programs. Losing to Gonzaga badly and Nevada last time out. In fact, if you extend that another ten spots it includes losses to 109 New Mexico and 103 Arizona State. Boise has split top opponents with a win over 28 SMU and a loss at 18 Oregon. Boise has held the Aztecs to 63, 56, 46 and 46 points the last four contests. They get it done again tonight. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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01-05-17 | Murray State +5.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 76-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
797 Murray State at Jacksonville State The Racers have won 19 out of 20 meetings in this series with the lone loss coming by a single point. While Murray State has struggled on the road our power ratings and overall rankings have the Racers as the better team. Jacksonville State has played an amazingly daunting schedule with this being its second true home game of the season. So while this will be an inspired home fanbase, you have to keep in mind the Gamecocks have played just one more game in this building than tonights opponent. We will take the points here and let history be our guide with the better team. PLAY MURRAY STATE |
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01-03-17 | Jazz v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
704 Utah at Boston Jazz are on a nice current run winning four straight games. The problem has been the opponents have been the weakest teams in the league. Brooklyn, Phoenix, Philadelphia and the Lakers. The Jazz played last night in Brooklyn and are unrested, while Boston has had the last three days off. Utah is just 1-5 ATS on the season when playing a team 0-5 points better than them on a neutral court. Boston is playing well as the team starts to get healthy. Winning 7 of 9 with the losses to Oklahoma and Cleveland. The Celtics are 12-5 ATS on the year playing teams they are 0-5 points better. Look for the rested Celts to prevail. PLAY BOSTON |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +8 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
280 USC & Penn State Both teams finished the regular season as two of the hottest teams in the nation. Both as we often see that hot streak no longer exists this far between games. It happens all the time in the NFL with a bye week, so you can imagine what happens in a January Bowl Game. USC played Stanford, Utah, Colorado and Washington this year. None of those teams in the PAC12 covered the number in its bowl game. We have these two clubs rated about as close as two bowl teams could be, with Southern Cal gaining a small home edge because of the location. In the key numbers we use we have the following: In season long explosive plays Penn State has the edge 3.0 per game to 1.6. In the last four regular season games Penn State is also ahead 17-5. When comparing the teams spread records when losing the turnover battle USC is 3-2 and Penn State is 2-2. When losing the sack battle Penn State is 0-1 ATS and USC comes in at 1-2. So as you can see these two clubs are almost identical in our power ratings. With the Nittany Lions knowing it can finish the season ranked #3 with the losses of Washington, Michigan and Ohio State. We will take the generous points with Penn State. PLAY PENN STATE |
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01-01-17 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
320 Cleveland at Pittsburgh The Browns celebrated as if it won the Super Bowl last week when it upset the Chargers at home. That marked the first win of the season for Cleveland and got the huge monkey of its back. Because of that relieved pressure we can’t see this team looking forward to taking on the physical Steelers with vacation time on deck. Pittsburgh is resting many key starters but the winning philosophy will not change for the host. Pittsburgh is a winning organization from ownership on down, while the Browns are the complete opposite. This line moved 12 points from the lookahead because of the Steelers clinching playoff position. That’s simply too much of a move with the Pittsburgh backups being just as good as these Browns starters. Cheap line for the Steelers here who enter the playoffs with a double digit victory. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
265 Florida State & Michigan at Miami We had Florida State ranked second in the country in our preseason power ratings. We were asking too much from this team with a freshman starter. After being blown out by upstart Louisville the Seminoles were put on the back burner by many. But as the season transpired the Seminoles started to get noticed again in the betting markets, finishing the regular season cashing 4 of 5. Michigan has a solid defense but played one of the weakest offense opponent slates in the country. This will be the best offensive unit the Wolverines have faced all year. And we worry about this Michigan offense who put up big numbers against weak opposition. The best defenses it faced were Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State. In those three games the Wolverines tallied 54 points and that included two overtimes against Ohio State. This one comes down to the wire and we will side with the better skill players of Florida State. PLAY FLORIDA STATE |
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12-30-16 | TCU -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
257 TCU & Georgia in Memphis Much prefer the Horned Frogs here who are 30-21-2 ATS when Gary Patterson has extra time to prepare. This is a team that took a great deal of money in the Game of the Year lines down at the Golden Nugget Sportsbook. It was the most bet on team by the wise guys with a maximum bet of $1,000. Unfortunately this team underperformed all season with a 3-8 ATS mark against FBS opposition. The other two teams with three or less covers were Baylor and Southern Miss, both spread covering teams in the bowl season. With time to reflect on this disappointing season we expect the Horned Frogs to come to play on Friday. Georgia can’t be too excited for this bowl draw after back to back ten win seasons. Kirby Smart has a quality defense in his first season in Athens, but the offense is lacking. There than Alabama the rest of the SEC was really down this year. We’ve already seen Mississippi State struggle with a middling MAC team, and Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and South Carolina lose outright. The line moved towards the Horned Frogs late, and we agree with the move. PLAY TCU |
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12-29-16 | South Florida v. South Carolina +10.5 | Top | 46-39 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
252 South Florida & South Carolina at Birmingham Willie Taggart is off to Oregon with his top assistants, Charlie Strong will not be involved in this game. Therefore you have a sizable favorite here with an inexperienced coaching staff. South Carolina is a sizable SEC underdog, something rarely seen. It also owns the far better defensive unit. We like the job Will Muschamp has done here and this bowl game is a nice reward for a team expected to finish in last place in its division. Take the generous points with the Gamecocks. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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12-28-16 | Pacers v. Wizards -5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
702 Indiana at Washington Pacers just beat the Wizards 107-105 just over a week ago in Indiana. Since that time it has dropped three straight to New York, Boston and Chicago. Overall 6 of the last 7 games the Pacers failed to cover. Washington is playing much better ball as of late winning 7 of 10 and cashing 8 of those contests. In the midst of a three game home stand we will back the Wizards here to get quick revenge. Washington has posted a 7-2 ATS mark when playing similar power rating opponents. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota +10 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
240 Washington State & Minnesota This line has risen based on the suspension of 10 Golden Gophers, two of them starters. Our line with the full lineups would have been Washington State -4. Therefore we are getting six extra points for a team playing with purpose. We always like to play on teams with suspensions as it galvanizes the squad. We will take the generous points here with a quality defensive unit. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-24-16 | Chargers -4 v. Browns | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
117 San Diego at Cleveland Once again the wise guys have shown up to back the Browns. How’s that worked out for them this season? I admit that I had backed Cleveland on occasion and I still have the betting tickets to prove it. But now that the line has dropped this week we can come in on the Chargers. We are well aware that its a poor spot for San Diego, traveling across the country to play an early game. But the Browns have not shown up against teams in bad spots all season. Nobody wants to be known as the team that lost to the Browns, so we feel the Chargers will be well prepared. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
222 Eastern Michigan & Old Dominion at Nassau Not surprised by Old Dominion money coming in as of late as we made this line 5 points higher than the opener. Eastern Michigan won 7 total games the past four seasons, and have really improved this year under Chris Creighton. While web really like this team and have made quality money on them this season, Old Dominion has major edges. The Monarchs take care of the ball much better, only losing the turnover battle once all season. Old Dominion also only lost the sack battle once, all the way back on September 17th against NC State. We prefer the favorite here in what should be a double digit straight up victory. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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12-21-16 | Kings v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 94-93 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
714 Sacramento at Utah Both teams are on the second of a back to back situation. Thus far this season with no rest Utah is 1-5 SU while Sacramento is 1-5. Its also an advantage for the host as Sacramento isn’t as used to playing in altitude. While the Kings outlasted the Blazers last night the Jazz were embarrassed in a 30 point loss at Oakland. We look for Utah to bounce back big time tonight. PLAY UTAH |
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12-19-16 | Belmont -8 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | Top | 62-56 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
743 Belmont at Wisconsin Milwaukee After the Bruins game Saturday was postponed against Green Bay, Belmont has extra rest coming off that 13 point loss to Middle Tennessee State. The Bruins are well tested on the road having already played Vanderbilt, Florida and Rhode Island away from home. Despite the tough schedule Belmont has impressed us with its overall defense, something you want out of a road favorite. Tough start to the year for the Panthers who only own four victories against the Milwaukee School of Engineering, UC Irvine, Jacksonville and Montana State. We have serious concerns about the Milwaukee defense which allows an opponent effective field goal percentage of 57.2. With no shot blocker down low Belmont should have its way in the paint. PLAY BELMONT |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
305 Tampa Bay at Dallas Can’t buck the red hot Bucs here catching a full touchdown. Five straight wins allowing a total of 64 total points., that includes likely playoff foes Kansas City and Seattle. Tampa Bay was won the turnover battle in 8 of 9 games and has held its own in the trenches. Dallas continues to play excellent defense but the offensive side of the ball has struggled as of late. Just 24 total points the last two weeks when facing improving defenses. In a low scoring contest the points are at a premium. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette +4.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
New Orleans Bowl 212 Southern Miss & UL Lafayette in New Orleans The Golden Eagles won 4 total games from 2012-2014, but bounced back with a solid 9-5 record last year. So the team entered the 2016 season with high hopes. After beating Kentucky on the road in the season opener things looked great for first year coach Jay Hopson. But the only FBS victories since then came against UTEP, Rice, Marshall and Louisiana Tech. Three very bad teams an a Bulldogs team that was looking past Southern Miss to the CUSA Championship the following week against Western Kentucky. QB Nick Mullens is reportedly healthy, which is a positive. But that’s the only thing going in the Golden Eagles favor here. The team has struggled along the lines the latter part of the year, and is a negative 15 turnovers on the season. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played in the New Orleans Bowl in 4 of the last 5 seasons. ULL is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in those games. While this isn’t a true home game for Lafayette it’s a game the team shoots for every season. One major reason we like the Ragin’ Cajuns chances here are how these two teams perform when losing the turnover battle. When you are able to cover a game despite losing the turnover battle it tells us the true heart of a team. ULL was a perfect 4-0 ATS in that department this season, the best in the FBS, just ahead of Alabama at 4-1. Southern Miss on the other hand was 0-7 ATS when losing the turnover battle. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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12-17-16 | Houston v. San Diego State +4 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Las Vegas Bowl 204 Houston & San Diego State in Las Vegas Houston will be without coach Tom Herman as he has moved on to Texas. The offensive coordinator has been named new head coach, so the team does know who it will be playing for next season. While the move is a positive for the players, we can’t help but see this bowl as a disappointment for the team. This was a club expecting to play in a much more prestigious bowl, and we expect the players to treat this as more of a vacation spot than a proving ground. Houston has been very inconsistent all season in turnovers and along the lines. The +10 sack margin against Louisville was unbelievable, but other than that game the Cougars were -6 on the season in sacks. In 4 of the last 5 games of the season this team averaged less than 4.7 yards per play. San Diego State is very familiar with this location playing in Vegas every other year. The game will take precedence over the festivities for the Aztecs. San Diego State rarely turns the ball over and is formidable along the lines. Donnel Pumphrey is going for the all-time rushing record so the offensive line will be extra motivated. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -6.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 9 m | Show |
New Mexico Bowl 202 UTSA at New Mexico Tough draw in the first bowl game for the Roadrunners. Not only does UTSA have a first year coach in Frank Wilson, but the team is playing on the New Mexico home field. UTSA has had terrible line play all season posting a -21 net sack number in FBS games. In fact, it had just one positive sack game on the season. New Mexico is a team that will run the ball down your throat and gets stronger as the game progresses. On the season the Lobos have a +14 sack margin, which has been even better as of late. In the last seven games New Mexico has dominated in the trenches with a +14 sack margin. Twice this season the Lobos reached double digits in yards per play, 10.0 vs ULM and 13.5 against Wyoming. UTSA is in for a very physical contest. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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12-16-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 125-121 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
506 Atlanta at Toronto Huge revenge game for the Hawks here who were slaughtered 128-84 the last time in this building. While the effort will be there for Atlanta, the talent is lacking. The Hawks have four new started this year and the chemistry just isn’t there yet. The bench is severely lacking and the guard play has been a problem. That means trouble when facing the Raptors who have one of the most talented backcourts in the league. Toronto is also one of the deepest teams in the NBA. So we have the haves and the have nots here with a line that’s cheap considering the matchups. PLAY TORONTO |
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12-12-16 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
504 Milwaukee at Toronto Third game in four nights for the Bucks who faded late the last two games and lost to Washington and Atlanta. Milwaukee has an extreme disadvantage in the backcourt here as the Bucks guards are just too slow to guard Toronto. As much as we liked Matthew Dellavedova from his time in Cleveland he really struggled when playing Toronto. The Raptors have won 12 of 13 meetings with the Bucks and haven’t played since Friday. Milwaukee has struggled when playing teams of Toronto’s strength while the Raptors have made money against teams of Milwaukee’s ilk. PLAY TORONTO |
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12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
714 Indiana at Dallas Fifth straight road game for the Pacers who return home tomorrow to host the Blazers. These two went to overtime in the season opener with Indiana winning 130-121. Dallas is playing shorthanded right now with four key pieces remaining on the sideline. That said this team has been competitive all season and we expect the Mavs to battle tonight. Off an embarrassing 31 point loss here to Sacramento on Wednesday you know we will get the best out of the host. The only other blowout loss this season came by 38 at Cleveland and Dallas followed that up with an outright upset win, covering the spread by 15 1/2 points. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-04-16 | Panthers +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -101 | 46 h 44 m | Show |
375 Carolina at Seattle So much of what we have read and heard about this game is playoff revenge for Seattle. The Seahawks are getting healthier and now the players can’t wait to avenge the loss to the Panthers. But keep in mind Carolina was played Seattle better than anyone the past few seasons. Not only did Carolina win at home 31-24 in the playoffs, it won 27-23 in Seattle in the regular season. The teams played each of the three previous seasons with final margins of 4, 5 and 4 points. So just because Seattle has revenge does not mean this team can cover a spread in this range. On the season these two are equal in explosive plays breaking exactly even on the season. Over the last month Carolina has a +3 explosive play advantage. Since its bye week on October 9th Seattle has played seven games. In those games Seattle has scored 145 points and surrendered 133. The Seahawks were + 6 in turnovers in those games and favored in all but two. This team just isn’t as good as previous editions and Seattle continues to be an overrated squad. We went against Seattle last week vs the Bucs, we do the same here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-04-16 | Redskins +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
371 Washington at Arizona It’s not often that you get the clearly better team catching points. But that’s the case here as the betting public has been very slow to react to how poorly this Arizona team has played this year. On the season when looking at explosive plays Washington is +10 while Arizona is +2. Over the last month these teams are exactly equal. Washington is playing its second of three straight road games, and this is a divisional sandwich. The Redskins will also be without key receiver Reed on Sunday. Those are two big negatives, but not enough to keep us off the Skins here. In the last ten games Washington has lost just three games in regulation, twice to first place Dallas by margins of 4 and 5 points, and at first place Detroit by 3. This team is in every game it plays, and is a solid 2-2 ATS when losing the turnover battle. Simply put this team gives it all every week. The same cannot be said about the Cardinals who had much higher expectations coming into the season. Arizona is 0-5 ATS when losing the turnover battle. It’s also 0-4 on the year as an underdog or a favorite of -3 or less. Those stats are a clear indication of a lack of heart. In a game where the likely outcome is the team that wins gets the cover, who do you trust? PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 35 m | Show |
333 Penn State & Wisconsin in Indianapolis Much prefer the red hot Nittany Lions here who have produced an outstanding 3.0 explosive plays per game average, as opposed to Wisconsin’s +1.2 per game advantage. Over the last month Penn State has outperformed the Badgers by 14 explosive plays. Penn State struggled in the trenches through the opening month of the season with a negative two sack margin. Since that time Penn State has a + 15 margin in sacks. Better line play is one of the reasons why this team has put up scoring numbers of 45, 39, 45, 41 and 62 points down the stretch. Wisconsin has relied on forcing turnovers the second half of the season, with a +11 margin the past four games. In those four games the yards per play numbers for the Badgers were not overly impressive. Despite playing the likes of Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern, the ypp numbers were 0.7, 0.3, 1.4 and minus 0.3. Penn State is a strong 2-2 ATS on the season when losing the turnover battle. Wisconsin better rely on more than turnovers to win this Big10 Championship. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-03-16 | Oklahoma State +11 v. Oklahoma | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
317 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma These two teams are much closer in talent than this current line is showing. On the season the Sooners have a +1.9 explosive play advantage, while the Cowboys sit at +1.5. Over the last four games Oklahoma State has a +6 margin over Oklahoma. Keep in mind that while the Cowboys have two official losses on the season, the defeat against Central Michigan was later ruled an officials mistake. The only other defeat was at Baylor in the first road game of the season . The road team has won outright the last three meetings in this series, and the past two meetings in Norman produced three point overtime finals. Oklahoma is up 7 net turnovers over the last five games which has helped the team go undefeated over that span. But even with that turnover advantage the Sooners are just 3-2 ATS. On the season the Sooners are 2-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while the Cowboys sit at 2-1 on the year. As mentioned earlier this line is inflated and we will gladly take the visitor here with35 point home field revenge from a year ago. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-03-16 | Temple +3 v. Navy | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 33 m | Show |
325 Temple at Navy Tough to go against the red hot Owls here in an underdog role. On the season Temple is +2.5 explosive plays per game while Navy sits at 0.2. Over the last month Temple is +19 explosive plays compared the Navy. Temple has cashed 10 straight games heading into this contest, but the Midshipmen are off offensive performances of 75 and 66 points. Temple has its bye on November 12th, while Navy hasn’t had a break since September 24th. The last four Owl opponents produced 3.7, 3.1, 3.3 and 3.8 yards per play. Navy the past three weeks have 10.5, 8.1 and 7.0 yards per play from the offense. So it’s a red hot offense against a red hot defense, something has to give. While Navy has won 6 of 7 as of late, the yards per play stats show a different story. Since October 1st Navy has lost the ypp battle in 6 of 8 games with the only wins coming against SMU and Memphis. We would much rather trust this Temple team who has won the ypp battle 8 of its last 9 games. Defense wins over offense on Saturday. And the huge Army/Navy matchup is on deck for the Midshipmen. PLAY TEMPLE |
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12-02-16 | Ohio +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
303 Ohio U & Western Michigan in Detroit The Bobcats biggest loss on the season was by a margin of 9 points at Tennessee. This is a team that has been competitive in every game played and we don’t expect anything to be different come Friday. In the last ten games against FBS opposition the Bobcats held every opponent to 28 points or less. Even in games in which Ohio U lost the turnover margin this defense has permitted 27, 10, 27 and 3 points. Ohio U has great line play with a + 21 sack margin on the season. Last weeks game against Toledo was considered the must have game for Western Michigan. While the Broncos won by 20 it lost the yards per play battle 8.4 to 6.1. It was a +3 turnover margin which led to the WM victory. Western has beaten Ohio by margins of 35 and 21 points the past two seasons, so we can see the Broncos having a bit of a letdown here. Between beating Toledo last week and a possible New Years Day bowl, this game against Ohio U is a flat spot for the Broncos. Keep in mind that ESPN came to Kalamazoo the week before against Buffalo and we can see how Western Michigan would overlook the opposition here. The advantages of turnover margin and sack advantage will not be extreme against this Ohio U squad. Look for a much closer game here than projected. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-27-16 | Seahawks v. Bucs +6 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
268 Seattle at Tampa Bay Really tough scheduling spot here for the Seahawks. Off Philadelphia, New England and Buffalo on Monday Night Football. With Carolina on Sunday Night Football, Green Bay, Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football and Arizona on Christmas Eve ahead. This is by far the least important game for Seattle until the final week of the season at San Francisco. The Seahawks are really beat up defensively this week and we can easily see the team using bench players on Sunday. Tampa Bay on the other hand are as healthy as the team has been all season. Tampa Bay is on a 4-2 straight up run with one of the losses coming in overtime to Oakland. Tampa struggled early but this is is underrated right now. Plenty of value on the home dog. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-26-16 | Tennessee -7.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 34-45 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
11-26-16 | Michigan State v. Penn State -12 | Top | 12-45 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
160 Michigan State at Penn State Not buying into the Spartans improvement as this team has lost outright to Maryland and Illinois in the past five games. Michigan State is -11 in sacks on the season while Penn State is up 12 sacks in just the past seven games. We expect the Nittany Lions to dominate the line play on both sides of the ball. And Penn State has extra motivation off losses by margins of 39 and 27 points the last two years. PLAY PENN STATE |
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11-26-16 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -8 | Top | 55-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
214 Mississippi State at Mississippi This line has really surprised us. We have a bigger disparity between our line and the current line on this game than any other this weekend. On the season Ole Miss has a 1.9 explosive play advantage between these two, and over the last month its a +23 advantage for the Rebels. Ole Miss has won 3 of the last 4 with the lone loss coming in overtime in 2013. The Bulldogs over the past seven games have given up an average of 39.7 points per game. Mississippi has played the toughest schedule in the country this year. Games against Florida State, Alabama, Georgia, Memphis, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. You can understand how this team has underperformed on the scoreboard. But after an embarrassing loss last week at Vanderbilt you can be sure Hugh Freeze will have his team fired up for this one. Now 13-8 ATS here off a straight up loss in his tenure at Ole Miss, Freeze and company win this by double digits. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-25-16 | Texas Tech +5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 54-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
139 Texas Tech at Baylor The Red Raiders enter this game of an absolutely embarrassing loss at Iowa State. That broke a four game winning streak in the series, and marked the lowest offensive output in any game since 2011. All the quotes out of Lubbock suggest the team is excited to put that game behind them, and beat the hell out of the downtrodden Bears who crushed them last year 63-35. Baylor is simply put a dumpster fire right now with all the off-field issues taking over this program. Baylor has dropped four straight games and the offense is nowhere near as potent as in prior seasons. Over the last month Texas Tech has a +4 explode play advantage over the Bears and we actually have Texas Tech rated as the favorite here. Can’t understand the line move for a team that has not won the penalty advantage in any game, and is -6 in sacks the last month. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-25-16 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -7 | Top | 35-55 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
118 Toledo at Western Michigan Now that we’ve had some line movement towards the dog we will step in and lay the points with the Broncos. Toledo has been impressive on the road this year but other than the trip to BYU the opponents have been less than stellar. The coaching edge also favors the host here as Jason Candle is in his first year while PJ Fleck will be highly sought after following this season. This is also the ninth straight game for the visitor while Western had a bye just two weeks ago. In looking at explosive plays Western Michigan has been dominant. Up 2.7 per game as opposed to Toledo’s 0.4. Over the last month the Broncos have a +12 advantage over the Rockets. Western Michigan hasn’t lost the turnover battle in any game this year and have won the yards per play battle in 10 straight games. The Broncos are the clear class of this league and it will show on the field on Friday. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-25-16 | TCU v. Texas -3 | Top | 31-9 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
128 TCU at Texas The Horned Frogs were highly thought of in the betting marketplace before the season. But I, along with many others were simply wrong about TCU. The defense has been pretty good but this offense has only surpassed last years average points of 42.1 just twice all season. While Gary Patterson has been magical off a bye posting a 24-12-1 ATS mark in his career. In two games after byes this season TCU lost by margins of 24 and 25 points. Losing ATS by a combined 49 1/2 points. This will be an extremely emotional game for the host. Charlie Strong is coaching his last game in Austin after losing outright at Kansas last week. While his won/loss record here has been a disappointment, he is beloved by his players. There is no doubt in my mind that the Longhorn players will leave everything on the field in this game. These type of contests don’t come up very often. But in retrospect the club with the added emotion has great success. PLAY TEXAS |
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11-22-16 | Ball State v. Miami (OH) -7 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
104 Ball State at Miami Ohio Last game of the season for the Cardinals who are not eligible to go bowling. The team is -1.8 explosive plays a game as the offense has struggled to throw the ball downfield. Defensively Ball State has allowed every FBS opponent 21 points or more this season. Turnovers have been a problem with a -10 margin on the season. Nothing that we have read points to any special meaning for the Cardinals here. Miami Ohio lost the first six games of the season but are now undefeated with Gus Ragland behind center. Last year and this year combined Ragland has a 15 to 0 touchdown to interception ratio. The defense has been solid all year but now the offense is playing with confidence. The last four games the Redhawks have produced 35, 37, 28 and 40 points. Miami can win the MAC East with a victory here and a loss by Ohio U tonight against a banged up Akron team. Regardless of what happens in Athens, this Miami team is on the rise. Lay the cheap number with the Redhawks. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-20-16 | Titans +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 58 m | Show |
451 Tennessee at Indianapolis The Colts have beaten the Titans ten straight times heading into this contest including a 34-26 win in Tennessee back in October. But we expect that dominance to come to an end on Sunday. Indy should come out of the bye fat and happy after pounding the Packers on the road. But this team has only won twice all season in yards per play as the 4-5 record is a bit misleading. The major problem for the Colts is poor line play. When looking at team sacks Indy is -16 on the season, including -11 the past six games. If you can’t control the lines you better have the ability to create explosive plays. But that’s another sore spot for the Colts as Indy is -16 in explosive plays on the season. Tennessee on the other hand is +15 on the year, a whopping 31 explosive play advantage over Indy. While Tennessee is 5-5 on the year, it is 6-3-1 in yards per play. So while the Colts are not as good as its record the Titans are actually better. Getting the points with the better team here is just too good to pass up as we expect Tennessee to win going away. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-20-16 | Bears +7.5 v. Giants | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 46 h 51 m | Show |
457 Chicago at New York Giants In a battle of two mistake prone quarterbacks we will gladly take the inflated number with the Bears. Chicago has a -5 deficit in turnovers on the season but the Giants at -8 are even worse. The Bears are 4-4-1 in yards per play, it’s been the turnovers which have killed this team all year. Now facing another turnover machine in Eli Manning the Bears have a real shot at the outright win here. New York is 5-3-1 in yards per play but are at a -10 disadvantage in explosive plays vs Chicago. Playing on a short week after a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati, we can see the Giants coming into this contest overconfident. After facing Los Angeles in London and beating divisional rival Philadelphia, followed by the MNF contest, it’s easy to see NY struggling for motivation here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-19-16 | Air Force v. San Jose State +10.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show |
414 Air Force at San Jose State Very tough scheduling situation for the Falcons here who are playing its third road game in the last four weeks. With a Friday showdown with Boise State on deck. Air Force has underperformed the last couple months having lost ATS in 5 of 6 contests. The lone spread victory was against Army in winning the Commander in Chief Trophy. Air Force beat San Jose State by 21 last year so there is little motivation here. San Jose State has performed better over the last month in explosive plays, despite facing the tougher of the two schedules. Over the last three games the Spartans played Boise State and San Diego State, the two top teams in the Mountain West Conference. San Jose also is coming off a needed bye after falling to the Boise State team 45-31 in a game it won the yards per play stat. San Jose State really struggled out of the gate but this team is starting to find itself, and best of all its doing so under the publics eye. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +2.5 | Top | 56-28 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |
342 Oklahoma at West Virginia As well as the Sooners are playing winning seven straight games heading into this week, the list of teams it has beaten all have major flaws. The best two teams on the conference schedule are West Virginia and Oklahoma State, which is the same two teams it ends the season against. A telling sign when handicapping football is how teams do when losing the turnover battle. Oklahoma is 2-4 when that happens, which is about what you would expect. West Virginia on the other hand is 3-1 when losing the turnover battle. The only team better is the consensus best team in the nation, Alabama who is a perfect 4-0. Backing these type of teams gives you a full game of intensity, something the Sooners have lacked all season. The Mountaineers are on an 11-1 straight up run at home, yet have been installed as the underdog here. While Oklahoma is up 2.4 explosive plays per game to West Virginia and its 2.0, the Mountaineers have been better over the last month. We think the wrong team is favored here. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-16-16 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
307 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan With news of the quarterback change a Northern Illinois the line has dropped three points during the week. That’s way too much of an adjustment in our eyes as the change is at most a single point. Keep in mind that the Huskies lost its true starter early in the season and these two signal callers were rated equal at that point. Another reason for the Eastern Michigan love is that the Eagles are now bowl eligible while the Huskies won’t be bowling for the first time in nine years. We actually find that to be a detriment to Eastern Michigan who have had extra time to celebrate. With all the boosters and fans giving them praise all week we can see a team that’s not used to success coming out flat tonight. Northern on the other hand have beaten the Eagles 14 of 15 games, including the last four by a combined margin of 120 points, 30 points per contest. Despite the late loss last week to Toledo this team has outscored the opposition 113-58 the past three games. Rod Carey will not let this team get down on itself and the talent level isn’t a huge drop-off from last year. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys +3 v. Steelers | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
271 Dallas at Pittsburgh This is a classic case of perception winning out over reality. Just lay out the season long statistics of these two teams and take away the team names, then tell me who should be favored here. One team has won 7 straight games, winning 6 of those in yards per play. That club has only lost the turnover battle once all year and is +6 in sacks on the season. That team has produced a league high +21 explosive play margin. Team two sits at 4-4 on the year and enters on a three game losing streak. That team is 2-4-1 in yards per play this season and is -2 in turnover margin. The team is also a balanced 0 in explosive plays, allowing the same amount as it obtained itself. By now you recognize that the team with the far better production is the road underdog Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers simply are not playing well enough to trust here against what could be the NFC Super Bowl representative. Losses to Miami and Baltimore as of late cannot be excused. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-13-16 | Vikings v. Redskins -1 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
262 Minnesota at Washington The Vikings are not a team that is built to come back from deficits. The last three weeks Minnesota has scored 3 points by the half in each game. That was against Philadelphia, Chicago and Detroit. The offense produced a season high of 5.3 yards per play earlier this year against the Giants, which tells you how much this team struggles. If it wasn’t for a +12 turnover margin we would be talking about this team as one of the dregs of the league. In explosive plays Washington owns a +15 advantage over these Vikings. The offense has produced 16 points or more in every game, along with a season low of 5.0 yards per play. That would tie the second best game the Vikings have had offensively. Washington is the better all-around team and the line play for the Redskins is far superior overall to Minnesota, who are -11 sacks the past three games. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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11-12-16 | Appalachian State +1 v. Troy | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 22 m | Show |
159 Appalachian State at Troy The Mountaineers have won both meetings with the Trojans by margins of 3 and 39 points the last two years. The 44-41 triple overtime game from a year ago was with the Mountaineers as a 24 point favorite. That game was sandwiched between two Thursday games with contenders Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. You can bet coach Satterfield will remind his team of that situation from a year ago. With only ULM and New Mexico State remaining on the schedule Appalachian State can focus fully on Troy here. Troy has put together a really good season, but this team hasn’t played a good team since the September 10th meeting at Clemson. The Trojans have been a 9 point or larger favorite in each of the last five games. App State has the much more explosive team despite playing a slightly tougher schedule. This team knows how to win on the road and we expect a solid victory over the Trojans. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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11-12-16 | Kentucky +14 v. Tennessee | Top | 36-49 | Win | 100 | 41 h 42 m | Show |
165 Kentucky at Tennessee Not buying into the line movement here as Kentucky has been every bit as good as Tennessee the last month. The Wildcats have a sizable explosive play advantage on the season of 1.4 per game over the Volunteers. In matching up similar opponents and using 3.5 as home field advantage we see Kentucky fares very closely to Tennessee. The Wildcats were -34.5 against Florida while Tennessee was +6.5. That was the clear outlier when looking at these games. Against South Carolina it was +3.5 for the Wildcats and +0.5 for Tennessee. Against Alabama it was -24.5 for KY and -42.5 for TN. Versus Georgia it was -6.5 for the Wildcats and +6.5 for the Volunteers. With Tennessee expected to be the SEC East Champions coming into the season, we can fade this team down the stretch. Off three straight losses there is no way Tennessee deserves this much credit in the betting marketplace. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-08-16 | Eastern Michigan +1 v. Ball State | Top | 48-41 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
101 Eastern Michigan at Ball State The Eagles have dropped five straight in this series, but keep in mind this team posted a 13-47 overall record during that time. This Chris Creighton squad is far superior to any of those teams. In fact, a win here and the Eagles will become bowl eligible. After back to back losses to Western Michigan and an improving Miami Ohio, a victory here is paramount before heading into the bye week. Ball State has dropped 4 of 5 overall with the lone victory coming at Buffalo in a non-covering affair. The running game for the Cardinals is quality but this Eastern Michigan run defense is much tougher than in past years. We can see the Eagles putting a lot of pressure on the Ball State signal caller, making the offense one dimensional. Eastern has the much more explosive team averaging +1.1 explosive plays per game while Ball State sits at a -1.6. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-05-16 | Nebraska +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-62 | Loss | -104 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
415 Nebraska at Ohio State Only one team all season has scored more than 22 points in regulation against the Huskers. That was Oregon way back in week three who tallied 32. The last five games Nebraska has permitted 17, 14, 22, 16 and 13 points in regulation. Tough not to like a sizable underdog with a defense like that. Ohio State is really struggling offensively. Without JT Barrett being 100% it takes away the ability for the QB to run from the pocket. The last four games Ohio State has produced 5.9, 5.0, 5.6 and 5.4 yards per play. These two clubs faced two good conference opponents this year, Northwestern and Wisconsin. In regulation Ohio State outscored those two by 4 total points, Nebraska outscored the same two teams in regulation by 11 points. So why are the Buckeyes such a prohibitive favorite? Public perception. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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11-05-16 | Charlotte +20 v. Southern Miss | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 38 m | Show |
357 Charlotte at Southern Miss Charlotte was a team getting a lot of press in the offseason with 16 returning starters. After facing Louisville, Eastern Michigan and Temple that hype dissipated. But looking back we see that all three of those teams are much improved, which gives us value on the 49ers now. The last three games Charlotte has outscored the opposition 81 to 74 despite playing two of those games on the road. The 49ers also have a slightly better explosive plays per game average than does the Golden Eagles, despite playing a little tougher schedule. Charlotte is off a bye after winning at Marshall by 3, while Southern Miss just beat the Thundering Herd at home by 10. There is no way the Golden Eagles deserve to be favorites of this magnitude. The Golden Eagles own just one FBS victory by more than this spread, and that was over UTEP, in a game it only had a 0.9 yards per play advantage. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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11-05-16 | Fresno State +15.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
371 Fresno State at Colorado State Don’t look now but the Bulldogs have become major money makers after the firing of head coach Tim DeRuyter. Four straight covers by a combined total of 16 1/2 points. After blowing a huge lead and losing in overtime to Tulsa, followed by a 25 point loss at UNLV, this team was left for dead. Not anymore as this club is playing with new enthusiasm. Colorado State has three FBS wins on the season, against UTSA, Utah State and UNLV. In two of those three games the Rams lost the yards per play category. In all three of those games Colorado State won the turnover battle. This is the first time all season this club has been a double digit favorite. The last time in that role was against these very same Bulldogs last year, and the Rams only won that game 34-31. We look for more of the same here. PLAY FRESNO STATE |
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11-03-16 | UCLA +12 v. Colorado | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
315 UCLA at Colorado The Bruins have beaten the Buffaloes all five times since Colorado joined the PAC12. In every meeting UCLS has been a double digit favorite. Just last year Colorado was getting 23 points in Los Angeles. Now the Buffalos have been installed as a double digit favorite Thursday at home. While there is a drop-off at quarterback without Rosen, this line is saying its an eight point line adjustment. With last week off for the Bruins, the team can make the needed adjustments at quarterback. Just three weeks ago the Buffaloes gave Arizona State 11 1/2 points here. We have UCLA a full 10 points better with a healthy Rosen. Once again the line here has been overblown. Too many points to not back the Bruins here off its worst defensive effort of the year. PLAY UCLA |
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11-01-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
718 Golden State at Portland Playoff revenge for the Blazers here after the Warriors knocked them out of contention last season. The Blazers are a team we are looking to back early on as just about all the key pieces return from last years club. Teams with cohesiveness have a big edge early in the season. Golden State on the other hand made some major changes to its personnel this season, which is why the club has been an early money burner. We back the home dog here in what amounts to a statement game. PLAY PORTLAND |
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11-01-16 | Bowling Green +17 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
301 Bowling Green at Northern Illinois What a difference a year makes with these two schools. The last three seasons these programs played for the MAC Championship. Now neither will be making the big game. Mike Jinks took over for Dino Babers this season and the club was overwhelmed from the start, much like what happened to Northern Illinois this season. But both clubs have settled down now that conference action is underway. Just three weeks ago Bowling Green traveled to Ohio U and were installed as a 12 point underdog, in a 30-24 Bobcats win. Now the line is 5 points higher against a Huskies team that we have power rated as equal to Ohio U. That gives us plenty of value with the Falcons on Tuesday. Bowling Green still turns the ball over way too often, but the offense is starting to click. Bowling Green has produced 24 points or more in its last four games, against some of the better defenses in the MAC no less. Last time out Northern Illinois crushed Buffalo 44-7. But the offensively challenged Bulls lost the turnover battle by 4 in the first half in that game. The Bulls never had a chance to compete. Northern is the better team but this line is outrageous. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-29-16 | Tulsa v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 59-30 | Loss | -106 | 56 h 32 m | Show |
162 Tulsa at Memphis The Golden Hurricane has lost to Memphis by 24 and 20 points the past two seasons. The only FBS victories this season for Tulsa have come against San Jose State, Fresno State, SMU and Tulane. The middle two games coming in overtime. Memphis has suffered just two losses on the year, at Mississippi and at Navy. Two teams much better than Tulsa. The Tigers have a +1.5 explosive plays per game more than the Golden Hurricane while playing almost identical strength of schedules. Look for another double digit victory for Memphis. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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10-29-16 | Arizona State v. Oregon -8 | Top | 35-54 | Win | 100 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
202 Arizona State at Oregon The Sun Devils have dropped 3 of 4 as of late with the offense averaging just 22.8 points per game. The quarterback position has been hampered with injuries and the starting center is out for this game. In three road games this season Arizona State is 0-3 ATS with spread losses of 12 1/2, 12 and 17 1/2 points. Oregon looked good coming out of the bye giving California all it could handle in a double overtime loss. On the season the Ducks have played a 5 point tougher schedule and still owns a 2.4 explosive play per game average over the Sun Devils. With the Ducks being winless on the season ATS there is tons of value on this Oregon squad. PLAY OREGON |
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10-29-16 | Army v. Wake Forest -5.5 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
132 Army at Wake Forest The Black Knights gained a lot of attention in knocking off Temple 28-13 as a 13 1/2 point underdog to start the season. But since then Army is 2-3 vs FBS competition with the only wins coming against Rice & UTEP. In fact, This team has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire FBS. How about facing North Texas, Duke, Buffalo, UTEP and Rice the past five FBS games. This team has dropped three straight ATS by a combined margin of 53 points. Army is an overrated squad right now in the betting markets. Wake Forest has beaten Army each of the last four seasons and has already faced an option team in Tulane in the season opener. The Demon Deacons are off a bye and have cashed 4 of 5 games heading into this clash. The last two games Wake held Florida State and Syracuse to a combined 26 points. This line is cheap based on the perceived improvement from Army. Keep in mind there is a huge strength of schedule edge here for the host as Wake Forest has played a 14 point tougher schedule than the Black Knights. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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10-22-16 | Georgia Southern v. New Mexico State +14 | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 77 h 21 m | Show |
396 Georgia Southern at New Mexico State The Eagles are 2-3 SU vs FBS competition on the season and 1-4 ATS. It has been out gained in yards per play in 4 of 5 games. Yet for some reason Georgia Southern has been installed as a double digit road favorite. It’s also the fourth straight road game for the Eagles and third straight since its bye week. The Eagles also have to play on Thursday hosting Appalachian State in a revenge matchup. Needless to say this is a terrible spot for the visitor. New Mexico State is just 2-4 SU vs FBS competition but did beat another ground oriented attack in in-state rival New Mexico. Coming off an embarrassing 55-23 loss at Idaho after a bye, you can be assured Doug Martin and his crew will be fired up for this home battle. The Aggies are undefeated in Aggie Memorial Stadium this year and have double revenge against this opponent. When looking at explosive plays the Aggies are +0.5 per game while the Eagles are -2.0 on the season. Georgia Southern just doesn’t have the breakout backs it has had in prior seasons. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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10-22-16 | Old Dominion +13.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 24-59 | Loss | -106 | 69 h 23 m | Show |
385 Old Dominion at Western Kentucky We’ve been very impressed by the job Bobby Wilder has done with the Monarchs. Three straight victories with the only FBS losses coming at Appalachian State at North Carolina State. With an extra week to prepare we look for Old Dominion to avenge two straight losses to the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the number in five straight games but it’s gone unnoticed because of a 3-3 straight up record. But this team could come in here a bit suggest after going to the wire against Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Vanderbilt and Miami Ohio. All games decided by seven points or less including two contests involving a total of three overtimes. Now it’s homecoming week with the team knowing it has dispatched the Monarchs by 17 and 15 points the previous two years. When looking at explosive plays the visitor has the edge at +1.2 per game as opposed to a -0.5 for the host. This one is decided very late. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-22-16 | Ohio v. Kent State +3.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 43 m | Show |
362 Ohio at Kent State The Bobcats are 3-3 SU on the season against FBS competition with a turnover margin advantage of plus 9. As we know turnovers for the most part are random and therefore the Bobcats have been very fortunate. In fact, last week was the first time Ohio U lost the turnover battle and in turn lost the game outright to Eastern Michigan. This team is rated higher by the gambling community than anyone who has watched this team play. Kent State is 1-4 SU on the season but has covered 3 of 5 games against the FBS. The offense obviously struggled against Penn State and Alabama but has averaged over 28 ppg against league opponents. That’s far better than the 9.1 ppg the Golden Flashes averaged a year ago. Speaking of a year ago, Kent State is looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout at the hands of this Bobcat team in Athens. With this being just the second home game against FBS opposition we can see the team fired up to exact some revenge. PLAY KENT STATE |
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10-16-16 | Rams v. Lions -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 51 h 35 m | Show |
264 Los Angeles at Detroit The Rams and Giants travel to London next week. Teams that have that trip on deck have been a terrible pointspread proposition. In fact, Los Angeles in taking off from Detroit instead of returning back home. Football teams are a regimented group. Doing things exactly the same every day of the week during the season. A travel situation like this is sure to mess up your weekly flow of energy. The Rams haven’t spent two weeks at home the entire season up to this point and won’t until back to back home games hosting San Francisco and Arizona to end the regular season. The Rams have lost the yards per play stat in every game played this season. Unlike the visitor the Lions are home for the second of three straight weeks. Detroit is 8–3-2 ATS under Jim Caldwell as a home favorite. The Rams will get the full attention on the Lions here in a great scheduling spot for the host. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-15-16 | Temple +4 v. Central Florida | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 52 h 58 m | Show |
123 Connecticut at South Florida The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-15-16 | Connecticut +20 v. South Florida | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
123 Connecticut at South Florida The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-15-16 | Ball State v. Buffalo +10.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 6 m | Show |
122 Ball State at Buffalo The Cardinals are 2-3 straight up against FBS competition and haven’t been favored by double digits in ten games. The last time the Cardinals were such a big favorite it lost outright to Georgia State, failing to cover the spread by 25 points. When we break down explosive plays we find the host having the better numbers than this high priced road favorite. Buffalo is 1-3 vs FBS competition and are off back to back blowouts to Kent State and Boston College. But this line movement is too extreme as Kent State was favored by just 3 points last week. We only rate Ball State three points better than the Golden Flashes. So we are getting an additional four points here with a fired up home dog looking to make amends. An outright upset wouldn’t surprise. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-15-16 | Eastern Michigan +7 v. Ohio | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ohio U Been very impressed with the job Craig Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan this season. Since 2009 this team had been 15-69 and the laughingstock of the MAC. But this year his Eagles have been very competitive with a 3-2 SU record against FBS competition. What’s been especially good is that transpired despite a -4 turnover disadvantage. The last four games when looking at yards per play the Eagles have held their own. +1.9 ypp against Charlotte, +1.5 vs Wyoming, +1.2 against Bowling Green and were only outgunned by 20 point favorite Toledo by 0.2 yards per play. Ohio U is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS vs FBS opposition. But keep in mind that this team has a turnover advantage of +10 and a sack advantage of +17 on the year. Teams that dominate those two stats should be much more successful. Coming off unimpressive victories over Miami Ohio and Bowling Green, we can clearly see the sell sign on the Bobcats. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-15-16 | Vanderbilt +14 v. Georgia | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
179 Vanderbilt at Georgia Second straight road game for the Commodores who are off a 20-13 loss at Kentucky. But teams who fail to cover in the first game of a back to back are an excellent play the following week. We saw this earlier in the season as the Commodores won outright at Western Kentucky after failing at Georgia Tech. That makes Vandy 5-0 ATS in that situation the last five years. Despite dropping game at Kentucky and Florida the past two weeks the Commodores beat both teams in yards per play. Georgia enters this game 3-2 SU against FBS members. Beating North Carolina by 9, Missouri by a single point and South Carolina by 14 when running back the onside kick at games end last week. We just haven’t seen enough out of this Georgia team to lay this type of number. Our explosive play chart rates Vandy much higher than the Bulldogs. Tough to lay this big of number without long touchdowns. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
462 Philadelphia at Detroit The Eagles had the legitimizer game right before the week off as they crushed the Steelers 34-3. You know this team is living high on the hog the past two weeks savoring its success. But turnovers have been a big part of that 3-0 record with a +6 turnover margin. Now the team takes to the road to play a Detroit team coming off three straight losses. The Lions are 11-6 straight up at home as of late with just three of those losses coming by more than a field goal. While Philly is fat and happy this is a must win situation for the host. We expect the Lions to get it done as the Eagles come in overrated. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-08-16 | Washington v. Oregon +9 | Top | 70-21 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 33 m | Show |
386 Washington at Oregon Coming into this season we were already aware of how good this Washington team would be, along with the expected drop-off of the Ducks. Yet all three of our power ratings made Oregon a 1 1/2 point favorite in this game. So what has happened this season to make this game 11 points higher? Virtually nothing other than a nationally televised blowout win over Stanford. A Cardinal team that had just beaten USC and UCLA the previous two weeks before taking on the Huskies on a short week. We take nothing away from this Washington team but keep in mind it had to go to overtime to beat Arizona the prior week. Oregon enters this game on a three game losing streak, dropping contests to Nebraska, Colorado and Washington State, three bowl worthy opponents. Over the last 10+ years the Ducks are 61-10 straight up in Autzen Stadium. Oregon enters this contest knowing it has beaten the Huskies 12 straight games, yet is installed as a sizable home underdog. This team has been a home dog just twice in this last decade plus. Winning both games outright and covering the spread by a whopping combined margin of 74 1/2 points! PLAY OREGON |
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10-08-16 | Northern Illinois +19.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
321 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan It’s a huge matchup of series history against current form. Northern Illinois has beaten Western Michigan seven straight times with the closest outcome being by 7 points. Western Michigan on the other hand have beaten the likes of Northwestern, Illinois and Central Michigan. PJ Fleck is a highly sought after coach who will likely be offered the Purdue job at years end. But this is not a very good spot for the Broncos. Last weeks blowout of Central Michigan was the legitimizer win for this program. After winning eight games each of the last two years the Broncos are now on the edge of the Top 25, and are talked about being a possible undefeated squad. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves Western Michigan fans, keep in mind you are +9 in turnover margin against FBS competition. In fact, the Broncos haven’t turned the ball over all season. That type of luck isn’t likely to continue as this team, coming into this season, were -4 in turnovers in the first three years of the PJ Fleck era. Northern Illinois is 1-4 on the season but a perfect 1-0 in MAC action. Losses at Wyoming in altitude, along with defeats at South Florida and San Diego State are excusable. Both those teams are Top 30 worthy. This is a veteran team with 58 lettermen returning along with a starting quarterback who transferred in from Western Michigan. That knowledge of the system can only help the Huskies. While Western is the clearly better team in the public eye, Northern Illinois knows how to beat this team. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-07-16 | Boise State v. New Mexico +17 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -104 | 57 h 32 m | Show |
316 Boise State at New Mexico Many will look towards the revenge angle in this one as Boise State was shocked 31-24 last year, losing as a 31 point favorite. But a quick look at history shows that the Broncos have a terrible time against the option. When going against Air Force and New Mexico the past five years Boise State is 6-3 straight up but 0-9 ATS. In fact those spread losses have been by margins of 18, 38, 8, 27, 9, 1.5, 22.5, 3.5 and 18. That’s over 16 points per game against the spread. The Broncos played Utah State last week so it has no extra time to practice for the option. Bob Davie has done a tremendous job here in Albuquerque since taking over the program in 2012. After consecutive single win seasons from 2009 thru 2011 this club has posted win totals of 4, 3, 4 and 7 the past four seasons. That may not sound overly impressive to most, but people in the know are well aware of his coaching ability. An outright upset here would really not be out of the realm of possibility. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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10-02-16 | Titans v. Texans -4 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
264 Tennessee at Houston We’ve waited all week as the public has gotten involved in this one pushing the line way below where it should have been. This game should have been lined around a touchdown but with the news of JJ Watt possibly being lost for the season the line has dropped roughly 3 points. In his prime Watt was worth about 1 1/2 points to the spread. He has been injured all year with a back problem and the analytics show he has been a below average NFL player this season. So we get a 3 point line movement on a team that should be even better just by not having the injured player on the field. Houston is off an embarrassing 27-0 shutout loss on national television last Thursday. The Texans have two full days to prepare and it has owned the Titans as of late. Winning by margins of 28, 14, 24 and 14 points the last two seasons. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS as a divisional road dog under Mike Mularkey. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-01-16 | Oregon v. Washington State +2.5 | Top | 33-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
216 Oregon at Washington State This Oregon program is on the decline under Mark Helfrich. His teams performed well in 2013 and 2014 with the Chip Kelly recruits. But last year the Ducks broke a streak of 7 straight seasons of double digit victories with a 9-4 record including losing its bowl game. The last two weeks the Ducks lost to both Nebraska and Colorado despite winning the turnover battle in each game, which is hard to do. Washington State and Mike Leach has played Oregon tough over the years. The last five games the Cougars have covered by margins of 23 1/2, 16, 15 1/2, 5 1/2 and 20 points. Last year Washington State won in straight up fashion in Eugene. The wrong team is favored here. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |
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10-01-16 | Memphis v. Ole Miss -14.5 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 103 h 50 m | Show |
116 Memphis at Mississippi The Tigers have been impressive thus far with dominate wins over SE M and Bowling Green. But the first win came against an FCS team and the Jayhawks and Falcons are two of the weaker teams in the FBS this season. That said, Mike Norvell has inherited a team that won 9 and 10 games the previous two years with Justin Fuente at the helm and Paxton Lynch behind center. Mississippi has had this game circled after losing at Memphis last year 37-24 as a 10 1/2 point road favorite. While Memphis has played a very weak schedule Ole Miss has taken on the likes of Alabama, Georgia and Florida State. Under Hugh Freeze the Rebels are 14-7-1 when installed as home favorites and the team has a bye week on deck. We look for an inspired effort from the host as the step up in defenses faced for Memphis will be too much to overcome. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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10-01-16 | Akron v. Kent State +7 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
154 Akron at Kent State Tough to lay points on the road in a rivalry game when your defense is allowing 577.7 yards per game the last three contests. Akron hasn’t beaten the Golden Flashes in regulation the past five times here. The only victory was a double overtime 30-27 win here in 2008. In three games against FBS competition the Zips have permitted 45, 38 and 54 points. No way this team should be a touchdown favorite. Due to injuries the Golden Flashes are down to its third string quarterback, but like the Cleveland Browns last week the drop-off is virtually nonexistent. Kent is coming off a physical Alabama game last week but the two previous contests were vs FCS squads. Kent is also playing with shutout revenge for a 20-0 defeat last year at Akron. In two FBS games Kent has played at Penn State and Alabama, the drop-off in defensive faced is huge. PLAY KENT STATE |
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