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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-25-19 | Longwood +14.5 v. DePaul | Top | 89-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
609 Longwood at DePauk The Lancers are trying to even up its season record tonight at 17-17 with an upset of DePaul. Longwood lives and dies by the 3 pointer, allowing opponents to take 50.3% of its shots from long range. The Lancers themselves take 50.4% of its shots from beyond the arc. But DePaul isn’t a team that takes a lot of 3 pointers with only 33% of its attempts coming from that area. What we like about the visitor is that it only attempts 16.5% of its shots from midrange. Anytime you have a team that puts up 50% of its shots from deep, you have a team that can pull off a upset. This club is 6-1 ATS catching double digits and 3-4 straight up. We like the Lancers chances here. PLAY LONGWOOD |
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03-24-19 | Buffalo v. Texas Tech -4 | Top | 58-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
870 Buffalo & Texas Tech Playing in the MAC the Bulls don’t get to see this type of defense very often. The Red Raiders only permit 30% of opponent shots at the rim, while forcing the opposition to attempt 30.5% from mid range. This is also a squad that is excellent against the 3 as it holds the opposition to just 29.5% accuracy from downtown. Buffalo allows opponents to take 39.2% of shots at the rim where Texas Tech shoots 67.4%. This matchup favors the Red Raiders and we expected this line to take that in to account, which is hasn’t. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-21-19 | New Mexico State +6.5 v. Auburn | Top | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
781 New Mexico State & Auburn The Aggies are ranked #2 in the country in shooting inside the arc, and are on a 19 game winning streak. This team loves to shoot the 3 and Auburn struggles against outside shooting teams. NM State is 5th in the country in rebounding margin. Very deep team who can afford to get into foul trouble. Auburn is 2-5 against Top 25 teams and only 10-7 away from home. This club is 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, but has a 220th in effective field goal defense. Campus is a whopping 1876 miles from this location. With two teams playing similar styles we much prefer the underdog here in a game that has a decent shot of an outright victory. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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03-15-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -8 | Top | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
814 Iowa & Michigan Not only are the Wolverines off a loss to instate rival Michigan State, the team is in revenge for a 74-59 loss at Iowa. Michigan permits only 29% of opponents attempts to be from beyond the three point line. In addition, Michigan only allows 29.4% accuracy from that range. That’s a big part of this Iowa offense as the Hawkeyes attempt 39.5% shots from that area and connect on 36.3% of long range shots. Michigan forces opponents to shoot midrange on 35.9% of its shots, while Iowa only forces opponents to attempt 20% from that low efficiency area. Iowa permits 39% of opponents shots at the rim, while Michigan shoots a solid 66.1% in that area. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-12-19 | Binghamton +16.5 v. Vermont | Top | 51-84 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
603 Binghamton at Vermont The Bearcats have played much better on the road this season than at home. With a 10-22 record this team will be playing very loose in this one as the season likely ends tonight. The Bearcats are weak against the 3 pointer, allowing 37.7% success this season. But when it comes down to closer shots this team can compete against Vermont enough to make a game of this. The Catamounts are 25-6 and already beat the Bearcats twice this season. In a one bid league all Vermont has to do is win and advance. That gives the underdog a great chance to stay under this number. Playing at home where Vermont has lost only twice all season, we can see the host just going through the motions here and using the bench players extended minutes. Keep in mind Vermont uses an 11 man rotation, so the starters get extended minutes of rest. PLAY BINGHAMTON |
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03-11-19 | San Diego v. St. Mary's -4.5 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
888 San Diego & St Mary’s Fourth game in five days for a Toreros team who has a very short bench. Four players average at least 71% of the team minutes, with three going for 82.1% or higher. There is only eight players in this rotation, so foul trouble is always a concern. San Diego takes far too many shots from midrange at 33.2% of attempts, and far too little around the rim at 26.8% of attempts. This team has already lost to St Mary’s by 17 and 20 points this year. That increases the Gaels win streak in this series to 11 straight victories. This line is too short in our regard as the Gaels need to bounce back strongly here after losing its last regular season game to arch rival Gonzaga. Fresher team gets it done in a big way today. PLAY ST MARY’S |
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03-09-19 | Celtics v. Lakers +6 | Top | 120-107 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Fresh off our NHL Game of the Week as the underdog Winnipeg Jets won 8-1 yesterday. Now on a 10-3 NBA run and tonight we are STEPPING OUT WITH A BEST BET on the hardwood. Join us as we continue to provide profit for our clients. |
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03-06-19 | Cavs +9.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
535 Cleveland at Brooklyn The Cavaliers are a whole different team with Kevin Love healthy and in the lineup. With plenty of rest heading into this game and no contest tomorrow, the Cavs Love affair should provide us with a solid play tonight. Brooklyn leads the season series 2-1 but the last game was a triple overtime thriller. Cleveland is 5-3 straight up as of late with Love sitting the bench in the majority of those losses. Brooklyn is fighting for the playoffs which is one reason why this line is so high. But keep in mind the Nets have dropped 9 of its last 14 games. And the team has been slightly better on the road than at home this year. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-04-19 | Hawks +9 v. Heat | Top | 113-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
503 Atlanta at Miami Third game in four days for the Hawks who beat the Bulls 123-118 yesterday. But keep in mind none of the Hawks players played more than 28 minutes including Trey Young who was kicked out of the contest after only 18 minutes of play. Miami is the team trying to make the playoffs and will be a popular play with the public today. But keep in mind the Heat have lost outright to the Hawks in all three meetings this season. Can’t trust the Heat here who have lost 6 of 8 outright as of late in this building. PLAY ATLANTA |
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03-03-19 | Magic v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
582 Orlando at Cleveland Terrible spot here for the red hot Magic, off wins over Golden State and Indiana, with Philadelphia on deck. Orlando is very young and hasn’t been able to give the same effort on a night to night basis. Just in the last two weeks this team has lost to Chicago and New York. Cleveland on the other hand rested Kevin Love last night and were embarrassed by the Pistons. Love is back on Sunday and the team has played very well since his return to health. Great situational spot for the Cavaliers to take advantage of all the Orlando hype the last three weeks. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-01-19 | Bucks -4 v. Lakers | Top | 131-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
553 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Lakers Bucks are in the middle of playing three games in four days on this five game road trip. That said, the Lakers and LeBron James bring out the best in good teams. And this Milwaukee team is playing better than anyone in the league. This contest should also bring special meaning for the Greek Freak as his team lost to LeBron and his squad in the All-Star game. The Bucks have played slightly better on the road this year, while the Lakers have been very poor at home. The Lakers are 18-12 straight up at home on the season, but just 6-8 since mid-December. Simply cannot trust the host to play enough defense to keep this one close. With a winnable game at Phoenix on deck, followed by city rival Clippers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Lakers go deep in the rotation tonight. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-28-19 | William & Mary -2.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
611 William & Mary at Towson The Tribe is looking to sweep its season series with Towson after winning 71-61 at home at the end of December. Riding a three game winning streak the visitor has played better on the road than at home this season. Towson has done the same as its home court value is one of the lowest in college basketball. The Tigers are just 5-5 straight up in this building. It’s tough to back the Tigers considering this team takes only 29.5% of its shots from long range, while permitting opponents to attempt a whopping 45.9% of shots from beyond the arc. When looking at midrange jumpers Towson takes 38.2% from this poor efficiency area, while the Tribe defense allows 28.9% of shots to be taken from that area. William & Mary prefers to attack the basket with 41.3% of shots to be taken at the rim. With Towson not attacking the basket, and not shooting from the 3 point line, this offense cannot be counted on. PLAY WILLIAM & MARY |
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02-27-19 | Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Virginia | Top | 51-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
787 Georgia Tech at Virginia Yellow Jackets have dropped 8 of 9 recently but this team actually matches up decently well with the Cavaliers. Georgia Tech has played much better on the road this season, as have these Cavaliers. The defensive key for Virginia is to force the opposition to shoot from distance, where the Cavs only allow 26.5% success from 3 point range. But Georgia Tech doesn’t attempt a lot of shots from downtown. Tech would rather compete around the rim with 37.7% of its shots coming from close range. With just four games left in the regular season Virginia just wants to win and advance at this point of the year. The last seven games for this club have been decided by 12 points or less. The Wahoos have bigger fish to fry, while Georgia Tech will be looking to pull off a shocker. We feel the visitor will keep this close throughout. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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02-26-19 | Akron v. Buffalo -14 | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
604 Akron at Buffalo The Zips played a competitive game against the Bulls just two weeks ago at home, losing 76-70. But this Zips team has really struggled on the road with a 1-8 straight up mark on the season. The Bulls on the other hand are undefeated at home this year. In breaking down this contest we see than Akron takes 47.7% of its shots from deep, while making only 31.1%. Buffalo defends the three well permitting just 30.6% from long range. Buffalo has a big advantage at the rim taking 43.7% of its shots from that high efficiency area, while Akron permits 41.9% of opponents shots to be taken at close range. With Buffalo going inside and poor shooting Akron heaving threes, this game turns into a blowout rather quickly. PLAY BUFFALO |
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02-25-19 | Blazers v. Cavs +9.5 | Top | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
562 Portland at Cleveland Blazers have won three in a row all by 14 points or more. It is in the midst of a seven game season high road trip. Coming off back to back double digit road wins over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, this team is riding high with Boston and Toronto on deck. If you were looking for a flat spot for the Blazers, this would be it. Don’t look now but the Cavaliers are playing its best ball of the season. Winning three of its last four with the lone loss coming in double overtime. Cleveland has the next two days off before traveling to New York to face the Knicks. This is also the fifth straight game at home for the Cavs who are the far more rested team from a travel aspect. Can’t see the Blazers getting up to play Cleveland here and the return of Love has energized the host. Look for this game to be tightly contested. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-14-19 | Southern Utah +3.5 v. CS Sacramento | Top | 73-84 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
687 Southern Utah at Sacramento State Nice matchup for the Thunderbirds who are riding a three game winning streak and already beat Sacramento State earlier at home. Southern Utah can be beat from long range allowing 36.6% shooting, but the host only takes 27% of its shots from beyond the arc. The Thunderbirds only take 20.6% of its shots from midrange, while tonights opponent takes a whopping 30.9% from that low efficiency area. To make matters worse the Hornets only make 30.6% of the shots from that area. Sac State does take 42.2% of attempts at the rim, but the visitor only permits 55.8% shooting from that range. PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH |
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02-13-19 | Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 106-97 | Win | 102 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
503 Milwaukee at Indiana In-season revenge game for the Bucks who lost to the Pacers by 16 in mid-December. Milwaukee has been golden this year after losing in the previous meeting, as well as coming off a loss in its last game. This is a club that takes losses badly and can’t wait to right the wrong. In its final game before the break we look for the Bucks to end the Pacers six game winning streak. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-12-19 | Duke -8 v. Louisville | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
637 Duke at Louisville With the Blue Devils off the big win at Virginia many will feel that this will be a letdown spot for Coach K’s squad. But the matchup clearly favors the road team. Louisville lives and dies by the three point shot, attempting 43.3% of its shots from long distance. But that plays directly into the Duke defense which only permits 33.8% of attempts from that area and just a 29.5% success rate. Duke takes 43.4% of its shots at the rim, which is much more predictable for success. PLAY DUKE |
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02-11-19 | Bucks -11.5 v. Bulls | Top | 112-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
563 Milwaukee at Chicago Not only have the Bucks been a great team in revenge, this club has bounced back strong off a loss. How bout 13-0 straight up on the season, covering the number by over 14 points per game. Since the start of the season Milwaukee has won those games by margins of 35, 23, 7, 19, 6, 3, 23, 5, 12, 14, 12, 19 and 10 points. This team lost against Orlando Saturday in the second game of a back to back situation. With Indiana and Boston on deck this is a chance for the Bucks to take out some frustrations. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-09-19 | Utah +4 v. UCLA | Top | 93-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
685 Utah at UCLA The Utes have won four of five on the road as of late, with the lone loss coming by just three points at Arizona. UCLA has dropped five of seven overall, and four of seven here at home. Utah takes 45.4% of its shots from downtown, and UCLA allows 41.3% of opponent shots from that area. So the Utes should get plenty of good looks from its favorite spot on the floor. UCLA prefers taking shots at the rim, attempting 44.5% of its shots in that range. But Utah forces opponents out of that area, permitting just 31.9% attempts close to the basket. PLAY UTAH |
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02-09-19 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State | Top | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
658 Wisconsin Milwaukee at Cleveland State Two teams with disappointing seasons playing out the conference string. This is the fifth straight road game for the Panthers, who have dropped five straight away from home. Milwaukee permits a whopping 45.5% of opponents shots to be taken from beyond the arc, while that plays right into the Vikings hands at home. Cleveland State takes 43.9% of its shots from downtown. Milwaukee also takes 29.2% of its shots from midrange, while only forcing the opposition to take 20.5% from that poor shooting area. PLAY CLEVELAND STATE |
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02-05-19 | Michigan State -10 v. Illinois | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
603 Michigan State at Illinois Short and sweet the Spartans have been excellent coming off of a loss. Now 61% ats after a defeat and the same 61% off back to back losses. This team has much more talent than the Illini, and the host's home court value is weak. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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02-04-19 | Hawks v. Wizards -6.5 | Top | 137-129 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
534 Atlanta at Washington Third game in four days for the Hawks who are off five straight games on the west coast. This is a one game stopover before returning to Atlanta for a seven game home stand. This should be a throwaway game for a team just playing out the schedule with no postseason expectations. Washington is rested and at home for the third straight game. This game is sandwiched in between games against the Milwaukee Bucks, so this is the contest the Wizards will be focused on. Great situational play for the host. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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02-02-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 131-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
507 Milwaukee at Washington The Bucks have been outstanding in seeking revenge for an in season loss. Last game out they kept the winners coming with a 105-92 upset of the Raptors. Milwaukee lost to Washington 113-106 on January 11th. WE will back the best team in the east against a disappointing Wizards squad. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-01-19 | Yale +1.5 v. Harvard | Top | 49-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
857 Yale at Harvard Yale has won 11 of 12 as of late with the only loss coming on the road at Duke. The visitor should dominate at the rim shooting 67.7% on 40.2% of the teams shots. Harvard permits 95% shooting on dunks, and Yale averages 10.7% of their shots taken at that spot. Yale defends the 3 very well allowing only 31% shooting from long range, while Harvard takes a whopping 42.6% of its shots from downtown. PLAY YALE |
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01-30-19 | Illinois v. Minnesota -6 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
822 Illinois at Minnesota The Fighting Illini spanked the Gophers at home 95-68 two weeks ago. That’s one of two wins for Illinois in the past nine games. Minnesota is 11-1 straight up at home on the season. The host has a huge edge at the rim, attempting 42.8% of its shots there, while Illinois allows 66.3% from the field in that area. The Gophers force the opposition to shoot 29.8% of its shots in a low efficiency area of the court, and the Illini only shoot 30.5% from the area in front of the arc and outside the paint.Minnesota gains its revenge in a big way here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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01-29-19 | Nevada -9.5 v. UNLV | Top | 87-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
639 Nevada at UNLV The Rebels just aren’t a good basketball team. The only reason it has gotten off to a decent start is because UNLV played the worst teams early in the schedule. This is a team that allows opponents to take 40.3% of its shots at the rim. Nevada shoots 67% at the rim on the season, so the Wolfpack should get any shot near the basket it wants. Nevada permits 41.7% of opponent shots behind the arc, but UNLV isn’t that accurate from long distance. We would much rather have a team that can dominate inside, as opposed to a team that would need a hot game from distance to be competitive. This is also a major revenge game for the Wolfpack who lost to the Rebels in a college football upset this year. PLAY NEVADA |
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01-28-19 | Duke -14 v. Notre Dame | Top | 83-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
851 Duke at Notre Dame Irish have dropped four straight and 6 of 7 as it hosts the most talented team in the country. This is a terrible matchup for Notre Dame who attempts 44.4% of its shots behind the arc. Duke holds the opposition to just 28.9% accuracy from downtown. Duke on the other hand takes 16.6% of its attempts on dunks and 44.3% overall at the rim. Once again, bad matchup for the Irish. PLAY DUKE |
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01-26-19 | Marshall +1 v. Southern Miss | Top | 51-101 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
687 Marshall at Southern Miss The Thundering Herd takes much better percentage shots than its opponent today. 10.9% ducks, 38.9% at the rim and 42.3% from downtown. The Golden Eagles by comparison shoot 36.5% from what I consider the dead zone, long two point tries. That provides a huge efficiency edge for Marshall who is off back to back road losses to Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. Southern Miss only has two wins over the Top 160 rated squads, and its most impressive win came in game two against SMU. PLAY MARSHALL |
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01-25-19 | Buffalo -8 v. Kent State | Top | 88-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
853 Buffalo at Kent State Bulls coming in off a loss to Northern Illinois 77-75. Both of Buffalo’s losses this season have come on the road. While this team hasn’t looked quite as good since conference season started, there is now value on this clear MAC favorite. This team is fourth in the country in attempted shots from outside the paint and inside the arc, the lowest efficiency area on the court. Kent State is having a terrific season as well, but this is a step up game for the Golden Flashes. Kent’s adjusted defensive efficiency is the key here with a 106.0 as opposed to the Bulls defense of 95.2. Should be a good game to watch, but the Bulls have the much better talent. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-24-19 | Tulsa +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 64-88 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
623 Tulsa at Cincinnati The Golden Hurricane led the Bearcats by 6 points with just 1:16 left in the earlier meeting. Cincinnati stormed back and beat Tulsa 70-65 in overtime. Tulsa averages 40.7% of its shots in the paint vs the Bearcats 31.6%. What we really don’t like is that Cincinnati shoots way too many mid-range shots with 36.8% of its attempts coming outside the rim and inside the arc. Those shots are the lowest efficiency shots. Much prefer the visitor in a revenge setting. PLAY TULSA |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
314 New England at Kansas City This line is telling you that the Patriots are a better team on a neutral field. That just isn’t the case. The Patriots have had so much success in the playoffs because it plays in the weakest division in football over the past decade. The Pats get to beat up on weak teams and build a better record than its playoff foes. Brady and company have been great at Foxboro, but much less impressive on the road. Kansas City has one of the three highest home field advantages in the NFL. We grade the Chiefs at 4 points just for the location. Then adding in the home/road dichotomy of both these teams an Kansas City should be at least a 5 point favorite here. The Pats are older and slower on both sides of the line, it’s time to name a new AFC Champion. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
312 LA Rams at New Orleans Don’t understand why this line is so cheap. New Orleans has one of the top home field advantages in football along with Seattle and Kansas City. We rate the Saints at home to have a 4 point edge. Throw in the fact that the Saints have been undefeated at home in the playoffs with Brees under center. Along with Goff having major home/road splits, and you find value of at least 5 points on the host. It’s even a bit higher when you realize the Rams looked so good last week while the Saints underperformed the line. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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01-16-19 | Bucks -6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 111-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
 527 Milwaukee at Memphis Third game in four days for the Bucks, while Memphis is rested. This is a revenge game for Milwaukee after losing at home to the Grizzlies 116-113 in mid-November. But before you dismiss this as a nothing game for the Bucks, take a look at what Milwaukee has done after losing the previous meeting this year to an opponent. Lost to Boston on the first of November, beat the Celtics by 13 on the road. Lost to Portland November 6th, beat the Blazers by 43 at home two weeks later. Lost to New York the first of December, beat the Knicks by 14 and 16 in a home and home during Christmas time. Lost to Miami December 22nd, beat the Heat by 38 points last night. None of the Bucks starters played more than 27 minutes last night, as 13 players swat least 7 minutes of action. When Memphis beat the Bucks earlier, it was in the midst of a 7-1 Grizzlies winning streak. The current Memphis run is losses in 13 of 16 games. It’s payback time for the visitor. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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01-14-19 | Syracuse v. Duke -17 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
868 Syracuse at Duke The Orangemen have faltered when stepping up in class, playing a very weak overall schedule coming into league play. This is just the third true road game for Syracuse. We rate Duke three points better than any other team as of right now, and we catch them off a tooth and nail last minute come from behind victory over Florida State. That was the wakeup call the Blue Devils needed. The last time this team was in a battle was an 89-87 loss to Gonzaga, which was followed by a 21 point win over Indiana. We look for a big bounce back from the Blue Devils tonight. PLAY DUKE |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 45 m | Show |
302 Indianapolis at Kansas City Third straight must win road game for the Colts, who needed to make the playoffs in the final regular season game at Tennessee. This will be the Colts fourth road game in the last six weeks. Since the Colts first five games in which injuries derailed this club, the team has played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league. That’s dead last in the NFL since week six of the season. In fact, last week the Texans were majorly beat up at the receiver position. A week after playing the Texans without its starting quarterback. So while the numbers say this Indy defense is much improved, keep in mind the weak offenses the Colts have played. Andy Reid has been terrific with an extra week to prepare in his coaching history. Kansas City along with Seattle have the largest home field advantage in the NFL. The Chiefs have been at home all but two games since November 20th. This team has a major deep passing advantage against the Colts secondary. Kelce and Hill will have huge games this weekend as the Colts simply don’t have the team speed defensively in this matchup. Kansas City also has one of the best pass rushes Indy has faced all season. As good as the Colts have protected Luck, the opponents faced have mostly been weak at getting the pressure on the quarterback. Taking into account the home field value of the Chiefs, along with the buy week, this line is saying the Colts are the better team. No way that is the case. Very cheap number especially considering the matchup advantages for the host here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-10-19 | Green Bay v. Detroit +1.5 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
614 Green Bay at Detroit Wrong team favored here as we find a Detroit team that’s in the top 10 in three point attempts, taking on an opponent ranked in the 300s in three point defense. Green Bay has a winning record but have played poorly on the road with just two wins against the 273rd and 295th ranked teams. Detroit should be favored here and the Titans will played the preferred slow tempo. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-08-19 | Akron -1.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
607 Akron at Central Michigan The Zips have been a consistent frontrunner in MAC basketball for years now, making the postseason tournaments on a regular basis. This is the type of team we are looking to back in a near pick ‘em road contest. Central Michigan has an impressive record, but that has come against the 348th toughest schedule in the country. The Chips haven’t shown up very often when stepping up in class, and this will be a very tough spot for the host. With Central having what seems to be an impressive record, we are getting a great deal on the number here. PLAY AKRON |
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01-07-19 | Knicks +11.5 v. Blazers | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
589 New York at Portland Rested Knicks are about to play its opening game of a back to back situation, as the team travels to Oakland to face the Warriors tomorrow. Portland on the other hand is playing its third game in four nights, off a solid win over the red hot Rockets. Great scheduling spot here for the underdog who will go all out tonight, with less of a chance to win tomorrow against Golden State. PLAY NEW YORK |
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01-06-19 | Memphis v. Houston -8 | Top | 77-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
824 Memphis at Houston The Tigers are one of the fastest paced teams in college basketball, which is great when playing at home in front of its home crowd. Pace doesn’t work so well on the road, especially when the more talented team is the host. Memphis has only played one true road game this season. Houston has the defense to dictate the pace and make the Tigers fight for points. PLAY HOUSTON |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 79 h 46 m | Show |
104 Seattle at Dallas The Seahawks run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They have done so against a very weak schedule of run defenses. Dallas has a solid defensive line with two superior linebackers. So what Seattle does best plays into the strength of the Dallas defense. Seattle finished the regular season at -0.3 yards per play which is the worst of all playoff teams, much of that because of how much the Seahawks rely on running the football. Dallas really took off offensively after adding Amari Cooper. The team has used Elliot out of the backfield in passing situations, which it didn’t do enough of early in the season. Really surprised by this line move considering the home/road dichotomy of these two teams. Seattle at home has been outstanding but not nearly as good on the road. After not having much of a home field advantage, Dallas has been very good at home this year. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
232 Minnesota & Georgia Tech in Detroit Michigan From purely a mathematical comparison this line is pretty accurate. But that doesn’t count the situational advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson is leaving the program after his 11th year at Georgia Tech. In those eleven years this team has been bowling eight years, but only once the past three years. It’s important for this program to get back to a bowl, but more important as it will be Johnson’s final game on the sidelines. We saw the emotional edge a final game can make Monday night in Oakland as the Raiders played its best game of the season in its last home game in the city of Oakland. We expect more of the same here as Paul Johnson is one of the most respected coaches in college football. Minnesota was extremely pleased to get PJ Fleck to come to Minneapolis and take over the team last year. But in two years his teams have an 11-13 overall record. That’s worse than the previous five seasons under Jerry Kill and Tracy Claey.While the Golden Gophers have the better special teams, and the motive of finishing with a winning record, the line should still be closer to double digits. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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12-23-18 | Bengals +10 v. Browns | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
119 Cincinnati at Cleveland The Browns love has gotten completely out of hand. Yes they are playing better, but this line is ridiculous. Cleveland has gone from the hunted to the hunter, and it’s a role this team hasn’t had in years. Cincinnati has dominated this series, and you know the line has been a main source of motivation. Cleveland is better, but this line is completely out of whack. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
124 Baltimore at LA Chargers Third road game in four weeks for the Ravens, and its fifth game in a different city in five weeks. Baltimore has just come off the poor defenses of the Bucs, Chiefs, Falcons, Raiders and Bengals. Five of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now it must travel three time zones to face a Chargers defense with a healthy Joey Bosa. Since the quarterback move the Ravens have had success running the football and playing quality defense, but it will not be able to have that same ground game against Los Angeles. Because of its success on the ground the passing game has been overlooked. That likely won’t be the case here as Baltimore will have to put the ball in the air, and Jackson hasn’t shown that ability at this stage in his young career. We all know the Chargers have very little in home field value, but even if this team is awarded just one point at home, the line would say these teams are equal. And if you’ve watched these two you would know that’s just not right. The Chargers have been home four of the last six weeks and have extra time to prepare off that Kansas City victory. The Ravens offense hasn’t been tested, it will be here. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-22-18 | Wake Forest v. Memphis -3 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -114 | 43 h 51 m | Show |
222 Wake Forest & Memphis in Birmingham Deacons heading to a bowl for the third year in a row after not bowling for four years. Entering the postseason at 6-6 is an advantage for Wake, as the team can produce a winning season with a victory. That said, we were a bit disappointed in this team on the year as it just didn’t produce when stepping up in class. Other than the nationally televised shocker against NC State, this team really hasn’t beaten a quality team this season. Sure the team ended the regular season with a blowout victory over Duke, but the Blue Devils were simply not the same team in the second half of the season. Memphis has lost three bowl games in the past three seasons. It’s much more important for Mike Norvell’s crew to taste postseason victory. This is also one of the Top 10 rushing teams in the country, and that’s a big advantage in bowl season. While passing teams don’t have that week to week consistency, running teams don’t have those timing issues. We look for a high scoring game with the Tigers reaching the end zone on a consistent basis. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -3 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
215 Marshall & South Florida in Tampa The Thundering Herd are 6-0 SU & ATS since Doc Holliday took over the program nine years ago. This is one team you can always count on to give its best during the bowl season. Last time out Marshall lost at Virginia Tech in a throw away game, vs an opponent who needed the win to go bowling. Now off a loss we are getting a motivated team that won’t take USF lightly as the Bulls will be playing at home. Unlike the last three seasons USF doesn’t get to leave home for a bowl. That has to be a disappointment for these players. So how inspired will they be after finishing the season with five straight losses. After 10 and 11 win seasons previous to this year we can’t see any motivation from the host. The Better team is favored but the line should be even higher. PLAY MARSHALL |
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12-19-18 | Ohio -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 55 h 13 m | Show |
213 Ohio U & San Diego State in Frisco Texas The Bobcats were a bit of an underachiever during the regular season, as this team was expected to run away with the MAC East division. But in retrospect the Bobcats only conference losses were to Miami Ohio on the road by 2, and at Northern Illinois by 3. Ohio was a combined -3 in turnovers in those games. Frank Solich has one of the most senior laden teams in the country, and after coming up short in league play you know this class wants to go out with a bang in this bowl game. San Diego State also underperformed this season, ending the regular part of the schedule losing 4 of 5 games with the only victory being an 8 point win at New Mexico. In the last eight seasons Rocky Long’s teams are just 4-4 straight up in bowl action. San Diego State was favored in 6 of those 8 bowl games. He treats these games as more of a preseason game for the following season, as opposed to just about every other coach. We expect more of the same here after losing at Hawaii outright as an 18 point favorite to end the regular season. PLAY OHIO U |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
332 New Orleans at Carolina Just as you would expect, NFL defenses are starting to have success against the high powered offenses of the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. It’s only a matter of time until sharp minds make enough adjustments to give their own teams a chance at success. Look at how well the Ravens are doing as of late with the old school method of running the football and playing great defense. New Orleans is a terrific team, but this line is simply too high. Not only is it on the road against a divisional opponent, but it’s in front of a Monday Night Football crowd. Added to this situation is that this is the Panthers Super Bowl. A loss here and Carolina is done for the season. Live home dog on Monday night as we expect Carolina to play its best game of the season. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-15-18 | Tulane -3 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 191 h 52 m | Show |
203 Tulane & Louisiana at Orlando Louisiana lost its conference championship to Appalachian State, and failed to make its preferred bowl in New Orleans. Louisiana had made that bowl game its own with it becoming a goal before the season. Now it must travel to Orlando, which isn’t a bad second choice. That said, the team wasn’t overly excited about it early on, which may give us a nice edge here. Keep in mind the Rain’ Cajuns have been bowling five of the last seven years. Tulane is a 6-6 team that hasn’t been to a bowl since 2013. This is a team that wants to end the season with a win and finish with a winning record. Teams entering bowls at 6-6 have been a very nice point spread play. In that last bowl game the Green Wave lost to this Louisiana team 24-21, so there is some revenge in mind. PLAY TULANE |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
301 Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Finally, finally get a quality game on the Thursday card. We’ve talked all season about home non-divisional teams having a huge advantage, but the media just looks at the overall numbers. The vast majority of home success comes from the two opponents not knowing each other well. That’s not the case with divisional rivals who play each other twice a year. While Andy Reid is clearly the better coach, having this game on Thursday actually hurts the Chiefs, as it cuts down on his ability to put in a full game plan. There is also the situation of Kansas City going to overtime Sunday, and playing on a short week. Without getting into specifics, it’s a really poor point spread proposition. We saw last week how a team without a passing game can beat these Chiefs, the Chargers have the ability to beat you through the air and on the ground. And we all know Los Angeles has the clearly better defense. Let’s get this one out now as we expect this line to move come game day. PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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12-09-18 | Colts +5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 3 m | Show |
107 Indianapolis at Houston While you rarely find point spread value on a team in a must win situation, the Colts have plenty of value here. While Houston stands at 9-3 on the season with a comfortable three game divisional lead, the Colts are 6-6 and sit right out of the wildcard playoff spot. The last time these two met the Colts had this game sandwiched between the champion Eagles and the former champion Patriots. That matchup with Houston was won by the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis. But the Colts are playing much better ball since, and while the Texans have run off eight straight victories, the wins have not been impressive. The Texans so far this season have played just two teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended right now. The Patriots opening week and the Cowboys in game five. In fact, as of right now the Texans don’t play another team that is currently in the playoffs the rest of the year. The Colts are just as good as this Houston team but Indy hasn’t had the same type of luck. We prefer Frank Reich to Bill O’Brien anytime, and the Texans come into this game fat and happy. Great time to grab the Colts. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-02-18 | Vikings v. Patriots -5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
376 Minnesota at New England The Vikings are coming off its two most important games of the season against Chicago and Green Bay, with a Monday Night Football contest at Seattle on deck. This non-conference affair is the least important game on the remaining schedule. Rhodes was injured last time out and he’s the glue of this defense, he says he is going to play but the doctors aren’t in agreement. Even if he goes he will not be the same player as we have come to expect. New England is by far the best December team in the league. Year in and year out this team gets better as the season goes along. There is also a major positive trend of New England laying less than a touchdown at home. The Pats came off a bye last week to face the Jets, and have lowly Miami on deck. This is a great spot for the host. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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12-02-18 | Browns +6 v. Texans | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
359 Cleveland at Houston Obviously the Browns have been a much better team after making the coaching changes. So you can dismiss most of the year to date stats. This is a team that has stockpiled high draft picks and is an up and coming team. Houston on the other hand is playing on a short week after a statement win over Tennessee on Monday Night Football. Not to mention the winning streak the Texans are on. With Indianapolis, the Jets on Sunday Night Football, and visiting the Super Bowl Champion Eagles on deck, this is a major flat spot in the schedule for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-26-18 | Wolves v. Cavs +6 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
702 Minnesota at Cleveland Third game in four days for the Timberwolves who are off back to back wins over Chicago and Brooklyn. After this contest the schedule toughens up with San Antonio, Boston and Houston, three really talented teams who have underperformed thus far. Minnesota is riding high after getting rid of its malcontent player, but we feel its a short success streak. Cleveland’s young players are starting to believe in themselves. Collin Sexton has been terrific since being inserted in the starting lineup, and looks like a value bet to win rookie of the year. Ever since LeBron James came to town this team has renewed confidence. Wins over two good teams in Philadelphia and Houston has this team playing much better than early in the year. We look for the outright upset here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-24-18 | Utah State v. Boise State -3 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
182 Utah State at Boise State The Aggies have gotten a lot of well deserved publicity this season by blowing out lesser opponents. But in looking back at the schedule this club has only played two decent opponents, Michigan State and BYU. Each of those games were played while fully rested. The Spartans in the opening game and BYU off a bye. Coming off games against Colorado State, San Jose State, Hawaii and New Mexico, this team isn’t prepared to step up to this level. Boise State has won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Boise State faced Troy, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Nevada, BYU and Fresno State this season. This club has been tested much more than the Aggies. We back the home favorite here. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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11-23-18 | Virginia -4 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 34 m | Show |
139 Virginia at Virginia Tech Talk about a one-sided rivalry. The Hokies have won 14 straight games in this series. But this year the Cavaliers are the much better team and the line shows it. While Virginia lost in overtime last week to Georgia Tech, the Cavaliers had a 55.7% to 31.7% successful play advantage. The Hokies have lost four straight games, failing to cover the number by a combined 75 1/2 points. The defense has allowed 38, 52, 31 and 49 points in those games. We want no part of the host here as Virginia finally gets that monkey off its back. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
101 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan We’ve been dead on with the Huskies this season, including fading them last Wednesday hosting Miami Ohio. This by far has been our most profitable handicap this season in the MAC. Despite having one less day to prepare we will jump back on the Huskies here, who look to improve on an 8-1 SU mark in this series. Even though Northern Illinois lost to Miami last week 13-7, the team once again shut down the opposition defensively. Miami only managed 23.1% successful offensive plays. On the conference season opponents are only averaging 31.2% successful offensive plays against this defense. Western has faded badly since a 51-24 home loss to Toledo. This team is 0-3 SU & ATS as of late with a negative turnover margin of 6 during those games. The Broncos have failed to cover a game this season when losing the turnover battle, 0-6. Look for the better team to bounce back here with a solid victory. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -120 | 153 h 33 m | Show |
457 Minnesota at Chicago Must win game for the Vikings who trail the Bears in the standings. Minnesota has won the last three meetings in this series by 44 total points. Coming off a bye week with Chicago, Green Bay and New England on deck, this is a do or die game for the visitor. Minnesota is 13-7 ATS as a road dog under Zimmer. After facing the Lions, Bills and Jets, this is a major step up game for the host. The Bears also have a short week on deck as it travels to Detroit to face Lions revenge on Thanksgiving. Better team off a bye catching points. Count us in. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
470 Oakland at Arizona Wanted to wait on late information for this one, so we missed out on the better numbers. Nonetheless we feel like there is still plenty of value. We’ve all heard of the tension in Oakland with the players infighting and disagreeing with management. Well in addition the Raiders took two days off of practice because of the air conditions in the Oakland area. Instead of taking the team to a place with better air conditions, they did not practice. That tells be all I need to know about this organization. Arizona has faced the toughest slate of pass rushers this season, now take on a team that simply cannot sack the quarterback. Let’s get this one in now because we expect this line to continue to rise. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-17-18 | UAB +15.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 20-41 | Loss | -109 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
385 UAB at Texas A&M Blazers enter this game on an eight game winning streak with a rare chance to play at an SEC school. As opposed to the vast majority of teams in Conference USA, UAB has a defense that can compete against elite offenses. A&M has LSU on deck and have lost six straight to the Aggies since joining the SEC. You know that game is high on the priority list for Jimbo Fisher and his first year team. After breaking a two game losing streak with a 38-24 win over Mississippi last week, we can see UAB giving the Aggies all they can handle here. PLAY UAB |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
308 Green Bay at Seattle Short and sweet on this one because it fits one of our strongest situational angles. If you’ve been following us all season, you know how much we like to back home teams when playing a non-divisional opponent. With the short week the home team has a sizable advantage against a team that loses a day of practice because of travel. The spot is even better if the road team has to travel two times zones to play. That trend is now 1-12-1 ATS against the road team, the Green Bay Packers. Seattle has had a great record in prime time affairs under Pete Carroll. Expect this crowd to really get the home team pumped up tonight. PLAY SEATTLE |
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11-15-18 | Tulane v. Houston -10 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
312 Tulane at Houston The Green Wave haven’t had a game all season in which it reached league average offensive success. In fact the last five games Tulane has 31.0%, 35.6%, 35.0%, 33.0% and 25.0% offensive success rates. It’s tough to come back if you fall behind, especially against a Houston team on a mission. Not only have the Cougars lost its last two games, but it lost at Tulane last year as a 9 1/2 point road dog. The Cougars have scored 31 points or more in every FBS game this season, can’t see Tulane putting enough points on the board to keep this one close. PLAY HOUSTON |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
305 Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois Major motivational edges in this one as the Redhawks need to finish the season with wins here and at home vs Ball State next week to become bowl eligible. Miami’s offense has been as consistent as anyone in this conference, scoring 30 points or more in every league game. This team is also very strong in the trenches which is a key against Northern Illinois. We’ve been big fans of the Huskies this year and have cashed some quality bets with them. But after Western Michigan took the loss yesterday, the Huskies motivation this week is tempered. Rival Western Michigan is up on deck, followed by the Mid-American Conference Championship the following week. Just can’t see Rod Carey’s team playing with the type of emotion needed to cover this number. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-11-18 | Redskins v. Bucs -3 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
258 Washington at Tampa Bay This line has already moved three points and for good reason. At least three of the Redskins best offensive linemen are out for this game, with a possible fourth seeing very little action. This is a team that has played the easiest pass defenses in the league, and yet has still had problems moving the football. Now with a one-dimensional offense we don’t expect this Redskins offenses to have much success. Tampa Bay has one of the most productive offenses in the league. They will put up at least 27 points here when breaking down the side and total projections. We see no way this Redskins team can match them in scoring. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-10-18 | Wisconsin +9 v. Penn State | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
179 Wisconsin at Penn State Looks like a down season for both these programs. But we happen to like the Badgers catching all these points. Despite the 31-17 win over Rutgers, Wisconsin crushed the Scarlet Knights in offense success rate 62.5% to 25.0%. So we once again look to back a team that is low in the betting markets. Penn State has struggled this season when playing quality opposition. Had to go to overtime hosting Appalachian State, lost to Ohio State at home producing just 30.3% offense success rate. Lost to Michigan State at home, scoring just 17 points. Struggled to beat Iowa at home 30-24, and were blown out last week at Michigan 42-7. No way this team deserves to be this size favorite. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21 v. Syracuse | Top | 23-54 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 24 m | Show |
111 Louisville at Syracuse Talk about an overreaction! Sure Louisville gave up 77 points last week to one of the top two teams in the nation. Yes, the team allowed 56 and 38 the previous two games. But when comparing season long power ratings, season long play success percentages, and last three games play success percentages, we can only see this line topping out at -16. Keep in mind the Cardinals are the only team in the country to play Alabama and Clemson, and the average line in those games was 31 1/2. Two weeks ago Louisville was a 3 point home favorite to Wake Forest, last week Syracuse was a 7 point road favorite at the Demon Deacons. That would make the Orangemen 10 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field. Add the 3 points for home field advantage and you have a -13 line. Nowhere near where this number is currently. The last four years Syracuse has lost to Louisville by margins of 46, 34, 24 and 22 points. Throw in the fact that Syracuse has the opportunity to knock off undefeated Notre Dame in the Bronx next week, and we are all in with the ugly dog on Friday night. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-05-18 | Raptors -2 v. Jazz | Top | 124-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
513 Toronto at Utah While the Raptors are playing the second game of a back to back here, Utah is playing its third in four days and its fourth in six. We already know the Jazz best scorer Donovan Mitchell will be out, and it’s likely Leonard will be out for the Raptors. But as of now he hasn’t been ruled out completely. Toronto is playing terrific ball right now while the host is really struggling. With or without Leonard we will back the Raptors here, as Utah is really having defensive problems this season. PLAY TORONTO |
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11-04-18 | Packers +5 v. Patriots | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
11-03-18 | Georgia v. Kentucky +10 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 28 m | Show |
330 Georgia at Kentucky There two teams have played virtually identical schedules which means the advanced stats really come into play here. The Bulldogs offense has been good this year with a 50.9% success rate, but the defense has been roughly FBS average at 41.5%. The team has been fortunate in turnovers at +5 on the season, while the play in the trenches has been average at best. Kentucky has a 39.6% offensive success rate with is slightly below the FBS average, but the defense has an outstanding 35.4% success rate. On the season the Wildcats are even in turnovers, but have had terrific sack numbers in the trenches. The Wildcats only loss came in overtime to a very good Texas A&M squad, while Georgia’s only loss came at LSU. We have this game much closer to a pick ‘em than the current line, which puts us squarely on the defensive dog in this key showdown. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-03-18 | Kansas State v. TCU -8 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
400 Kansas State at TCU It’s been a tough season in Manhattan, as the once dominant Bill Snyder hasn’t been able to get this team to play with heart. Other than the 31-12 win over Oklahoma State at home, the Wildcats haven’t been the fighting underdogs of yesteryear. The defense is allowing 54.7% successful offensive plays which isn’t what this team is used to. The Horned Frogs are looking for some payback as the last time Kansas State visited Fort Worth the Wildcats came away with a 30-6 victory. TCU has dropped three straight heading into this contest, and are off an embarrassing loss to Kansas. But the advanced numbers show TCU lost the turnover battle by two and outperformed the Jayhawks in successful plays 53% to 33%. Only Oklahoma has surpassed 47% success against this TCU defense. With an elite coach in Gary Patterson we see a major bounce back here. PLAY TCU |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
254 Cleveland at Pittsburgh Only once all season have the Browns scored more than 23 points in regulation, and that was against the defensive inept Raiders. That is especially hard to comprehend with a season turnover margin of +10. In the earlier meeting, a 21-21 tie, the Browns were +5 in turnovers. To not win a game with a plus five turnover margin is historic. Pittsburgh has produced an offensive success percentage of 42% or higher in every game this season, the Browns did it once all year. The Steelers have a +13 sack margin on the season. The Browns have permitted 15 sacks in the past three games. Look for the Steelers to control the trenches and win this one going away. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State -8 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 49 m | Show |
109 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern Much prefer the Mountaineers who have proven themselves on the road with a 3-0 spread mark. That includes an overtime loss at Penn State in the season opener. Last Saturday this team sleepwalked through a ten point home victory over Louisiana. App State has lost the turnover battle twice this year and covered both games by 17 1/2 and 19 1/2 points. The last three seasons the Mountaineers have won this battle by 21, 24 and 18 points. Georgia Southern has won the turnover battle in every game this season, with much of that success coming from a game plan of running the ball down the throats of the opposition. Which makes the Eagles a strong favorite against bad defenses like Massachusetts, South Alabama and New Mexico State. But when playing average or better stop units this team has scored 7, 28 and 15 points. In the last three meetings in this series the Eagles have produced 6, 10 and 13 points. That simply won’t get it done in this contest. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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10-25-18 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -5.5 | Top | 51-24 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 52 m | Show |
106 Toledo at Western Michigan This is not your typical Toledo football team. Late money came in on the Rockets again last week and it failed to cash once more. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS against FBS competition this season. Toledo is one of the least efficient teams in the country. Offensively just 38.7% of plays grade successful, while 47.1% of defensive plays are successful. That is a very wide negative margin for a team playing in a very weak conference. What’s even more alarming is that this team has only played on the road twice all season. The Rockets continue to be beaten at the line of scrimmage, which should be a major concern this week against Western Michigan. The Broncos despite a 2-5 ATS mark in FBS games, is a team peaking at the right time. Five straight wins for the Broncos and the defense is getting better each and every week. As opposed to the Rockets, this team has played five times on the road, with the only loss coming at Michigan. This line is very cheap as our numbers have the host a double digit favorite. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
470 New Orleans at Baltimore The Saints have faced a very weak schedule of passing defenses this season. The Ravens excel in stopping passing offenses. On the other hand Baltimore is much more pass oriented this season and the Saints are very weak against the pass. Overall no opponent has had a better than 48% success rate offensively against this Baltimore defense. With the Ravens playing its only home game is a five week span, we will lay the small number with the host. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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10-20-18 | USC +7 v. Utah | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
405 USC at Utah Really liking the improvement for the Trojans who have won three straight, with the only losses on the season at Stanford and Texas. Really impressed by this defense who is holding the opposition to just 33.0% successful plays. USC has been outstanding defensively in early down success rate, allowing only 60.2% of first downs on first or second down plays. The Trojans have lost the turnover battle three times yet covered twice, which is a sign of an underrated squad. Utah just demolished Arizona in front of a nationally televised audience last Friday. The week before that the Utes won outright at Stanford. So in stock market parlance Utah is a buying high product at this moment. The Utes defense is better than the FBS average, but the offense is about equal to an average squad. This line should be closer to 3 as opposed to the current number. Plenty of value on the visitor. PLAY USC |
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10-20-18 | Cincinnati v. Temple -3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 119 h 27 m | Show |
314 Cincinnati at Temple Bearcats off a bye, but that may put a damper on a team who had won five straight FBS games out of the shoot. While the offense has been pedestrian the defense has been outstanding allowing just 31.7% of plays to be successful. Cincinnati has lost the last three meetings in this series, allowing 34 points or more in every game. Temple has played a six point tougher FBS schedule this season. Even with the tougher competition the Owls advanced stats are just as good as the Bearcats. The offense is slightly better and the defense only permits 33.7% successful plays. What really has our attention is how well Temple does when losing the turnover battle. We all know how hard it is to cover a spread when losing the turnover edge, but the Owls have covered 3 of the 4 games it has done that this season. The last 3+ seasons Temple is 17-6 straight up at Lincoln Financial Field. This number is expected to rise so let’s grab this one now. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-17-18 | Brewers +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
911 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Miley & Kershaw Back to back games after a late night in Los Angeles from these teams yesterday. While the Dodgers clearly have the starting pitching edge, we like the situation for the Brewers. Nobody other than the two starters pitching in relief threw more than 20 pitches yesterday. So that means the excellent Brewers bullpen will all be available on Wednesday. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, the closer Kenley Jansen had to throw two innings and 34 pitches last night. The Dodgers hitters have really struggled to score in this series, and too many of the hitters have been all or nothing. That may work in Colorado in the summer, but in Los Angeles in the fall you have to be able to put the ball in play. Let’s take the 1 1/2 runs in this suspected low scoring affair. PLAY MILWAUKEE RUN LINE |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 31 h 21 m | Show |
276 Kansas City at New England The Chiefs are the toast of the town as the young quarterback is being talked about already as a Hall of Fame QB. This despite playing only five games thus far. When handicapping sports it’s very much like the stock market. Buy low and sell high. Obviously the Chiefs are a sell high candidate. As good as this offense has been with a 51.6% successful play rate, the defense is permitting 50.8% successful plays. New England has a comparable offense now that more players are healthy. The Pats are successful on 50.2% of offensive plays, while the defense has been a respectable 43.0%. This is also the third straight home game for the Pats, while KC has played in a different city every single week this season. I have a few handicapping friends who are huge Patriots fans. None of them think the Pats should be a play this week, but they too a man said every time they bet against the Patriots they lose. If die hard fans of the Pats don’t want them, it’s a team we want to be on. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 3 m | Show |
261 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Biggest game of the season for the Steelers here, as a 2-2-1 start has put Pittsburgh in peril of losing the division. It’s also important to state that one of the tie breakers is record in conference games. With a loss here the Steelers will fall to 0-3-1 vs the AFC while the Bengals will be a perfect 5-0. By strict advanced stats alone Pittsburgh should be a slight favorite in this game, but with the importance of this contest for the visitor, the Steelers are the play. The last four seasons the Steelers have won 13, 11, 10 and 11 games. Many have talked about the changing of the guard in the division, but the Steelers are king until the Ravens or Bengals knock them from its perch. Keep in mind Pittsburgh has won 8 of the last 9 games in this series. While the Bengals offense has been very good with a 51.2% successful play rate, the defense has equally been as bad with a 51.0% number. The Bengals at 4-1 on the season are not in a desperate situation here. While the Steelers have a bye week on deck. This is an all in game for the visitor. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-13-18 | Ohio v. Northern Illinois -4 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 41 h 27 m | Show |
162 Ohio U at Northern Illinois Rough spot for the Bobcats here after a 27-26 comeback victory at Kent State last week. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Ohio U. This squad has had a tough time on the defensive end this year, despite playing an overall weak slate of offenses. Northern Illinois is back home after three straight road games. The last two being road wins at Eastern Michigan and Ball State. While the offense has been sporadic, the defense has been excellent. On the season the Huskies are allowing just 35.4% of opponent offensive plays to be graded successfully. This team has also done a fine job defending early down success rate. Let’s back the Huskies who have played much better in conference action. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-07-18 | Raiders +6 v. Chargers | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 138 h 59 m | Show |
467 Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers While many will feel the Raiders were lucky last week when the refs did not award the Browns the football on a clear fumble recovery. Keep in mind Oakland had a bad break happen to them when Marshawn Lynch broke a tackle and looked like a possible touchdown run, only to see the refs blew the whistle for progress being impeded. The Raiders receivers dropped many passes that should have been caught. In fact, Oakland had a 47% successful plays offense, compared to 41% for the Browns. On the season the Raiders are successful on a whopping 53.8% of offensive plays. The Chargers survived against a 49ers team playing without it’s clearly best quarterback. Still San Francisco had a slightly better early down success rate, as well as a 47% to 46% offensive play success rate. That’s not the type of numbers you would expect from a ten point favorite playing at home. The Chargers defense is allowing 53.3% successful plays defensively on the season, that’s close to Tampa Bay territory. In a high scoring game we will back the better defense catching points. PLAY OAKLAND |
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10-07-18 | Dolphins v. Bengals -5.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
466 Miami at Cincinnati The Dolphins were exposed by the Patriots on Sunday, and we expect more hard times for the team down south. Despite a 3-1 record Miami has been outscored on the season. The Dolphins have yet to lose the turnover battle. But the telling stat comes from success rates. Miami’s offense produces just 38.5% success, while allowing 47.8%. Last week Miami had just two explosive plays while permitting ten. We want no part of the Dolphins in this price range. Cincinnati has played 3 of 4 games on the road, and have still outscored the opposition by 13 points. The Bengals have yet to lose the sack battle, and have produced a 53.0% offensive success rate. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-06-18 | Nebraska +19 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show |
409 Nebraska at Wyoming Sports betting is much like playing the stock market, buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high. Here we have one team that is definitely a buy low candidate, while the other team is about to be exposed. Nebraska is 0-4 SU & ATS on the season and have lost the turnover battle in every FBS game. But the advanced stats show some real positives. First off despite trailing most of the games Nebraska actually has a 12 to 11 sack advantage. The Huskers also own a much higher early down success rate than the opposition, 77.8% to 64.5%. While the offense has been pedestrian with a 36.7% offense play success number, the defense has been excellent allowing just 40.1% successful plays. Keep in mind the teams Nebraska have played are a combined 12-5 straight up on the season. Wisconsin is off a bye, but have the big showdown at Michigan next week. It’s quite possible Paul Chryst spent some time the last two weeks preparing for the Wolverines. The Wisconsin offense has been good as always with a 54.6% offensive play success rate, but despite playing very weak scoring units the Badgers are allowing 41.1% of plays to be successful. The Badgers are 1-3 ATS on the season despite a +4 turnover margin. As for the area in which Wisconsin is normally dominant, the Badgers have only gotten 3 sacks on the season while allowing 7 to the opposition. This line has been bet down from the opener and still remains way too high. One of our two power ratings says this should be an 8 point game. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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10-06-18 | UAB +10 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
379 UAB at Louisiana Tech The Blazers came into the season as a team the wise guys were looking to make some money on. But despite a 2-1 spread mark against FBS competition, the hype has somehow quieted. But we aren’t in that majority as we still believe this Blazers team is underrated. The early season 47-24 loss at Coastal Carolina looked bad on the scoreboard, but the advanced stats show a different story. UAB bettered the opposition in early down success rate and were even in play success percentage. UAB has dominated in the trenches this season with a 13-3 sack advantage. Louisiana Tech just knocked off league favorite North Texas, after playing state big brother very well the week before. This is a major letdown situation for the host. Keep in mind despite the 29-27 win at North Texas, the advanced stats showed a different story. In play success rate the Bulldogs lost 47.2% to 39.4%, and won because of a +2 turnover margin. This game should go down to the wire. PLAY UAB |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas +7.5 | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 118 h 46 m | Show |
398 Oklahoma & Texas in Dallas The Red River Rivalry resumes with the undefeated Sooners as the favorite. But we are starting to have real doubts about the validity of this team being national championship contenders. While the offense has been as good if not better than expected, let’s take a look at this stop unit. Oklahoma did well in the opening two games against Florida Atlantic and UCLA. But the last three games Oklahoma has permitted 43.1%, 50.6% and 50.0% successful plays to Iowa State, Army and Baylor. They were an average favorite by just over 23 points in those contests. Texas lost the opener at Maryland but has run off four straight victories since then. Defensively the Longhorns have permitted just 21, 14, 16 and 14 points during that streak. No team has sniffed 40% success offensively in those contests. That included blowout wins over USC and TCU. The last four meetings have resulted in seven point or less margins for the winner. Let’s back the much better defense in the underdog role. PLAY TEXAS |
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10-06-18 | Missouri +1 v. South Carolina | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 42 m | Show |
335 Missouri at South Carolina Nice spot to back the road Tigers here after suffering its first loss of the season, followed by a bye week. It’s the prime combination for coach Barry Odom to have his teams focus. Especially after losing to the Gamecocks each of the last two years. The Tigers lost by 14 to Georgia but had a better offensive play success rate, 49.4% to 42.9%. This is a team that hasn’t been stopped offensively by any opponent this season. While Missouri was resting, South Carolina is off back to back road games at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Against Kentucky the offense only produced 10 points with a lowly 34.8% offensive success rate. That simply won’t get it done against this high scoring Tigers squad. PLAY MISSOURI |
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10-06-18 | Northwestern +11 v. Michigan State | Top | 29-19 | Win | 100 | 70 h 36 m | Show |
373 Northwestern at Michigan State This is too many points to lay in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Last years contest went to triple overtime before the Wildcats prevailed 39-31. Pat Fitzgerald has been simply amazing in Evanston when installed as a road underdog. With the outright win at Purdue earlier the Wildcats are 24-9 ATS catching points on the road the last 10+ seasons. Michigan State was highly thought of coming into the season, but we never really bought into it. And it’s proven out on the field as Michigan State simply hasn’t dominated against weaker opposition. Despite playing Utah State, Arizona State, Indiana and Central Michigan, the Spartans are only up 117-88. That’s as a combined 62 1/2 combined point favorite. The only somewhat dominant performance was last week against a lower division MAC team, and the Spartans failed to cover by 17 points. With a major trip to Penn State on deck we can’t see the Spartans running away with this one. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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09-29-18 | Kent State +7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -106 | 97 h 23 m | Show |
117 Kent State at Ball State Yes it’s the third straight road game for Kent State, but it’s also the first conference game of the season. The Golden Flashes have been at its best as a road dog with a 13-8 spread mark. Which is pretty impressive considering Kent has a 25-51 straight up record in that time frame. Kent State is already 2-0 ATS when losing the turnover battle, which tells us this team is vastly underrated. Ball State remains winless against FBS competition. A good amount of this line is based on the Cardinals good showing at Notre Dame. But keep in mind that was a major flat spot for the Irish after knocking off Michigan with an SEC opponent on deck. Getting this line in this price range is a bargain. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas +21.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 51 m | Show |
211 Arkansas at Texas A&M We’ve been anti Arkansas and pro Texas A&M all season, and yet we can’t get anywhere near this high a number for this contest. Sports betting is a pendulum where there is a right number for every game. And this one tells us it’s time to back the ugly dog. There was no excuse to lose to a bad Colorado State team, but the Razorbacks had the higher early down success rate in that game 83-71%, as well as the better successful play rate 46.7-41.1%. While losing to North Texas and Auburn is nothing to be ashamed about as those two teams have been bet on squads. A combined -7 turnover margin kept the Razorbacks from cashing in those contests. These teams have met in each of the last nine seasons with the highest spread being 14 points. A&M enters this contest in a tough scheduling spot. Off Alabama and with Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn to come. All very good teams that A&M will have problems with. This is the only game Texas A&M will play all season on artificial turf, as it’s a neutral site game in Arlington. Just too many points to lay here for the Aggies. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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09-28-18 | UCLA +11.5 v. Colorado | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 47 m | Show |
107 UCLA at Colorado Both teams enter this Friday contest off byes last week. UCLA still has not tasted victory with losses to Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Fresno State. There is a very real possibility that all three of those teams will be bowling this December. While the UCLA offense is a concern the defense has impressed us. Looking beyond the final scores we see that the Bruins are holding the opposition to just 60% on early down success rate. Just 6 out of ten first downs have been attained on first and second down. That indicates that the defense is much better than what the scoreboard has shown. Despite playing three good football teams, the opposition has only been successful on 45.2% of offensive plays. While that’s higher than league average, it’s much more in line with the early down success rate than the scoreboard. As opposed to the Bruins, Colorado has had an easy schedule of FBS competition. Playing just Colorado State and Nebraska, two teams really struggling out of the gate. Colorado is +2 in turnover advantage, and have lost the sack battle 7 to 5. This is a team that has looked good against inferior competition. The last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4, 10, 4 and 3 points in double overtime. We look for this to be another tight contest. PLAY UCLA |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 67 h 41 m | Show |
102 Minnesota at LA Rams Did the Vikings just sleepwalk through that Buffalo game last week or is there really a problem? Did they look past the Bills in order to prepare for this game? The answer is very likely to both. Through three games the Vikings are a slightly better than average team by play success rates. The team has also allowed a higher early down success rate than their own. The Vikings have allowed six more explosive plays than it produced itself. Those are pretty pedestrian numbers, especially considering that there is a good chance none of the three teams it played will make the postseason. The Rams have been otherworldly which is why we like them so much in this Thursday night affair. Not only do the Rams not have to travel, this is the third straight home game. Minnesota on the other hand has to travel two time zones on a short week. Los Angeles has been dominant no matter how you slice it. While the offense is getting all the credit, the defense has been outstanding. How about allowing 36 total points and an average of just 40.7% successful plays. This is the same system that provided us with the Browns winner last Thursday. Hopefully it won’t need such a comeback. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
484 Chicago at Arizona The betting markets are now showing Chicago getting a whopping 74% of the bets despite this line being bet down. A team off the rare opportunity to win on Monday Night Football, traveling cross country to be a sizable road favorite. Needless to say this team right now is fat and happy. Keep in mind the Bears have been a road favorite just once in the past 4+ seasons. Just three weeks ago the Cardinals were a 2 point home favorite over Washington. That would mean Chicago is laying more than a touchdown more than the Redskins, a team I have equal power rating wise. Teams that have shut down offensively for two straight weeks have been terrific the following game. While Arizona has struggled thus far, this is a great spot for an offensive turnaround. Keep in mind the Bears are just 2-15 straight up on the road the past 2+ seasons. Don’t get caught in this trap. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
473 Oakland at Miami Because of the early season scheduling we are getting the better team here catching the key number of 3. The Raiders are 0-2 but faced the Rams and Broncos, while the 2-0 Dolphins faced the Titans and Jets. Oakland has a -2 turnover disadvantage, while Miami is +2. The Raiders had 50 and 60% successful offensive plays the first two weeks, while allowing just 52 and 45%. Tennessee on the other hand had 57% and 35% successful offensively, but allowed 40 and 52% defensively. So Oakland had the better success numbers despite playing the tougher slate. The Raiders also are in more of a need situation as it likely can’t fall to 0-3 and make the playoffs. The 2-0 Dolphins on the other hand travel to face New England next week in what could be its most important game of the season. Keep in mind under Adam Tase the Dolphins are only 1-3-2 ATS as a home favorite, as Miami consistently underperforms in the home favorite role, just 12-29-2 since 2008. PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-22-18 | Eastern Michigan v. San Diego State -11.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
412 Eastern Michigan at San Diego State Long travel scenario for the Eagles who haven’t played in the Pacific Time Zone in at least 20 years. The Eagles have 10 time revenge against Northern Illinois on deck, so we don’t know how much preparation this Chris Creighton team has put into this game. Since it’s the third straight road game this club may use this week as a mini vacation in beautiful California. The Aztecs defense has performed well against Stanford and Arizona State out of the PAC 12. Hosting the Cardinal to only 30.6% successful plays and the Sun Devils to just 41.4%. The offense is right around league average despite being underdogs in both those games. With a bye on deck before a big showdown with Boise State, this is a great spot play on the host. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
383 Louisiana Tech at LSU Rare chance for the Bulldogs to play big brother in the state of Louisiana. The last time these two met was in 2009, a 14 1/2 point cover for La Tech. The Bulldogs are off a bye while the Tigers pulled the road upset over rival Auburn. Skip Holtz is a solid 6-2 ATS as a 20 point or more underdog at Louisiana Tech. He’s also 10-3 ATS as a road underdog of any number the past 4+ seasons. His team is also 6-4 ATS vs Power Five Conferences since taking over the Bulldogs in 2013. LSU beat both Miami Florida and Auburn, but had a +4 turnover advantage in those two games. This is obviously a sandwich game for LSU with Mississippi on deck after playing Auburn. The Tigers are now 0-4 ATS as a 20+ favorite in the last year plus under Ed Orgeron. Great spot here to fade the public favorite. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
377 UNLV at Arkansas State Is this the year UNLV finally returns a winning record? It’s first since 2013 and only winning mark in the last decade. We believe it’s a strong possibility as the defense looks much improved. Offensively the offense produced 71.8% successful plays against UTEP, the worst program in the FBS. But it’s still impressive against anyone. Under Tony Sanchez the one positive role has been as road dog with a 12-4 spread mark including the cover earlier at USC. Arkansas State returns home after playing at Alabama and Tulsa. Even with a +2 turnover margin in those games the Red Wolves were outscored 77-36. When measuring successful play percentages this team has produced 32.3% while allowing 56.8%. Obviously Arkansas State wasn’t expected to compete with Alabama, but it took a +2 turnover margin to win at Tulsa. Not sure this Sun Belt squad is good enough to beat what we consider to be at least an average Mountain West Conference team by a margin. PLAY UNLV |
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09-22-18 | Charlotte +7.5 v. UMass | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
315 Charlotte at Massachusetts After a 1-11 season a year ago we like what Brad Lambert and his squad have done this season in Charlotte. In its short history in the FBS this program has won just one less game on the road than at Jerry Richardson Stadium. So we get the team in the preferred road underdog role against a team without much of a home field advantage. Massachusetts hasn’t won more than two home games in any season since 2010. Under Mark Whipple the Minutemen have been favorites just 11 times in four plus seasons. UMass returns home off a very rare three game road trip, losing at Boston College, Georgia Southern and FIU. Defensively this is one of if not the worst defense in the nation. The opposition has produced 63.6, 55.4 and 69.1% successful plays against the Minutemen. While Charlotte doesn’t have an explosive offense, they can move the ball at will against this squad. Tough to lay over a touchdown when you can’t stop anyone. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 | Top | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
344 Notre Dame at Wake Forest What has happened to this Irish offense? Last year it averaged 34.2 points per game. This season it has scored 24, 24 and 22 points. More telling is the lack of success in offensive plays. Just 33.3, 41.7 and 44.6% of plays have been successful. Tough to lay points in the road favorite role with an offense that is struggling. Wake Forest has faced two FBS squads and put up better success percentage numbers than both Tulane and Boston College. Keep in mind the Demon Deacons are at a -3 turnover disadvantage in those games. Under Dave Clawson Wake has been a very good home underdog and this is the third straight home game for the Deacs. No way the Irish remain in the Top 10 after this week. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-16-18 | Lions +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
281 Detroit at San Francisco Short week for the Lions after being embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football. The Jets picked up on signals from Matthew Stafford and knew what plays were being called. Now with time to correct that the Lions are priced as a bargain. San Francisco suffered many injuries last week at Minnesota. That is much more worrisome than what happened for the Lions. With two teams rated virtually equal coming in to the season, this line should be closer to the home field value of 2 1/2. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-16-18 | Panthers +6 v. Falcons | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
263 Carolina at Atlanta The Panther defense was superb in shutting down the Cowboys last week. Holding Dallas to a mere 33% successful offensive plays, and winning the sack battle 6-3. The Panthers have been a terrific road underdog with a 20-8 spread mark the past 6+ years. Atlanta took a great deal of money before the season opener, but neither team had much offensive success, especially in the red zone which has been a constant problem for the Falcons. Atlanta produced just 35% successful plays offensively, and lost despite a turnover advantage. Under Dan Quinn the Falcons are 8-13 ATS as a home favorite, and this line is simply too high. PLAY CAROLINA |
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