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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
644 Oregon & USC The Ducks looked really good when playing the fast tempo of Iowa, but this game should be played at a much slower pace. Oregon has great athletes that can get out and run with the best of them. But that’s not what USC wants to do. You can see the Ducks problems in the previous 72-58 loss to the Trojans. Oregon couldn’t get to the line and shot just 16 of 40 from two point range. USC leads the country in defending around the basket, and rank 7th in both defensive adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Give us the Trojans. PLAY USC |
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03-27-21 | Syracuse v. Houston -6.5 | Top | 46-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
648 Syracuse & Houston It’s been another nice run through the tournament for Jim Boeheim and his boys. But we feel this is where it comes to an end. A major reason is the offensive glass dominance of the Cougars. Syracuse ranks 339th in the nation, allowing 34.0% offensive rebounding to the opposition. Houston is the second best in the country with an offensive rebounding percentage of 39.8. The biggest weakness for Houston is allowing the opposition to get to the line, ranking 332nd in the country. But Syracuse isn’t a team that draws fouls ranking 266th offensively. The Orangemen rank out of the top 100 in both three and two point offensive shooting percentage, while Houston against a lesser schedule is 12th and 4th in those categories. Just a terrible matchup for the Orangemen. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-24-21 | Hornets v. Rockets +3.5 | Top | 122-97 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
572 Charlotte at Houston This seems to be a very good matchup for Houston. The Rockets rank 6th in the league in shots at the rim, and the Hornets are 26th in rim percentage shots allowed, and 25th in rim defense. Charlotte is at its best defensively in mid-range shots. But Houston ranks 30th in the league in mid-range attempts. Houston likes to shoot from distance, and this Charlotte defense gives up a great deal of threes. Ranking 30th in corner threes and 29th overall. The Hornets will be without LaMelo Ball who is out for four weeks after right wrist surgery. They rebounded from the loss to the likely rookie of the year, with a 100-97 victory over San Antonio on Monday. Teams tend to step up after a star player injury the first game, but struggle then after. That’s what we expect here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-21-21 | Texas Tech -1 v. Arkansas | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
805 Texas Tech & Arkansas This should be one of the best games of the season if you love defense. Although the Red Raiders only have an 18-10 record on the season, all the losses were to Top 32 opposition. Every team Texas Tech lost to is still alive in the final 32, except Texas who beat the Red Raiders by a single point. Arkansas has the gaudy 23-6 record, but the advanced stats show this as more of an 19-10 team. Even in the 85-68 win over Colgate, it took an 11 of 31 two point shooting night from the underdog to get the victory. The Red Raiders have a pedigree in the Big Dance, with one of the best coaches in the country. There is a reason they are favored here. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
789 Abilene Christian & Texas Really like this Wildcats team who held their own at Texas Tech and Arkansas. They lead college hoops in forcing turnovers, and rank 11th in defensive efficiency field goal percentage. This is also a club that ranks 21st in the country in offensive field goal percentage. Texas is a very good team but ranks 291st in the country in letting the opposition get to the line. Entering here off five straight victories, we expect the Longhorns to take this opponent for granted. We’ve already seen Texas no show plenty of times this season. PLAY ABILENE CHRISTIAN |
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03-12-21 | Cavs +7 v. Pelicans | Top | 82-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
527 Cleveland at New Orleans The Cavaliers were playing solid ball before the All-Star Break, and could be fully healthy for the first time all season tonight. Larry Nance Jr is back in action after having hand surgery. Also Garland and Love have been updated to questionable. Kevin Love is still a quality player when he is able to stay healthy, and he and Garland both practiced fully yesterday. New Orleans does one thing well, crash the offensive glass. But Cleveland is a team that is built to keep the opposition off the glass, especially if Love gets some minutes tonight. Cleveland is the fresher team and didn’t have anyone participating in the weekend festivities. Great spot for the Cavaliers to take this to the wire. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-10-21 | California v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
636 California & Stanford The Bears have dropped 11 of 12 heading into the conference tournament. They have already lost twice to Stanford 76-70 and 70-55. In looking at the advanced stats those were two games California really wasn’t overly competitive. Stanford has dropped four straight heading into this tourney, with the last game being the worst advanced stats game of the season. An embarrassing 79-42 loss at USC. The Cardinal is facing a team they are extremely confident against, and they take out a can of whoop ass on the Bears tonight. PLAY STANFORD |
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03-10-21 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Penn State | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
639 Nebraska & Penn State The Cornhuskers are 7-19 but our numbers show them with a 9-17 record based on the advanced stats. We backed them last time out against Northwestern and had a nice cover. Are they a good team? No. But it all comes down to value when betting on sports. Penn State is 10-13 and off back to back wins over Minnesota and Maryland. But everyone is beating the Golden Gophers right now, and the Terrapins win wasn’t fully deserved. When looking at the advanced stats and shot selection, Maryland was the much better team. These two have played twice thus far and Penn State has outscored Nebraska 147-145. No way this line should be this high. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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03-09-21 | Iona v. Quinnipiac +6 | Top | 72-48 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
814 Iona & Quinnipiac The Gaels ended the season in fine fashion sweeping Monmouth. They come in to this tourney after posting an 8-5 record on the regular season. The Bobcats beat Iona 74-70 in their only meeting, and we see no reason why they can’t do it again. Despite the 9-12 regular season record, the advanced shooting stats say this is a 13 win team. Quinnipiac deserved a better record based on shot selection for themselves and their opponents. They enter this contest off a 66-64 loss to St Peter’s, a game they outplayed the Peacocks. This line is too high as we have these two much closer in talent. PLAY QUINNIPIAC |
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03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Oakland +1.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
786 Northern Kentucky & Oakland The Norse have been very fortunate to have the 14-10 record they do. When factoring shot selection and advanced stats this team plays more like a 10 or 11 win team. Tuesday Northern Kentucky knocked off Detroit 70-69, but the game could have and probably should have turned out differently. They had a 42.4 offensive rebounding percentage, the fourth best of the season. They held Detroit to a second best 14.3 free throw rate. You have to tip your cap to the Golden Grizzlies who started the year playing Xavier, Toledo, Michigan, Purdue, Oklahoma State and Michigan State. This is not a team that will be intimidated by these surroundings. The advanced stats see this as a 14 win team, not the 11 win club that the current record shows. Oakland has a recent 7-2 record when playing teams ranked 200th and higher. The two losses were in double overtime. We have Northern Kentucky currently ranked 206th. PLAY OAKLAND |
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03-07-21 | Nebraska +7 v. Northwestern | Top | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
737 Nebraska at Northwestern It’s been an ugly season for the Cornhuskers, but they had been playing more competitive at least until Thursday. That’s when they suffered their most embarrassing loss of the season, a 102-64 defeat at Iowa. Northwestern had lost 13 straight games before knocking off Minnesota and Maryland. But the advanced stats show the Wildcats should have lost to Minnesota. Sure the Wildcats have three more wins on the season, but is this line really indicative of the talent on these two teams. We don’t think so, give us the Huskers off an embarrassing loss. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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03-06-21 | Butler v. Creighton -12.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
644 Butler at Creighton Butler survived the earlier home meeting 70-66 in overtime. But were a bit lucky to do so when checking out the advanced stats. Creighton has dropped two straight including a 72-60 loss at Villanova on Wednesday. Looking at the advanced stats in that game we see it was by far the worst performance for the Blue Jays this season. We expect a big rebound from Creighton in this one, as they can’t afford another loss to a middling team. Especially considering their Big Dance seed. PLAY CREIGHTON |
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03-03-21 | Stanford +7.5 v. USC | Top | 42-79 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
699 Stanford at USC The Tree had little problem scoring on this USC defense in the last meeting. Making 20 of 36 from two point range, and 7 of 16 from distance. It was a very poor 15.8 free throw rate that cost Stanford the game. Coming off two straight games against Oregon where the Cardinal really struggled to get to the line, we expect a squad on a mission tonight. USC has lost three of four with the lone win coming at home against Oregon. The Trojans were really pumped for that game because of how hot the Ducks have been this season. Despite back to back losses, we can’t see USC being overly motivated to run the score up here. Not with UCLA, their big rival on deck. This is also senior night and USC has three players to honor. We like to fade teams in this situation, as it takes the players away from their normal routine. PLAY STANFORD |
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03-02-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
610 Wake Forest at Pittsburgh Wake has dropped 13 of 16 in conference action this season. One of the three victories came against this Pittsburgh squad. In that game the Demon Deacons shot 15 of 32 from distance, and had a 59.8 effective field goal percentage. Pittsburgh has dropped eight of nine, including five straight. But every one of those five losses were by seven points or less. With a trip to Clemson to end the regular season, the Panthers need this victory to gain double digit victories. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-01-21 | Oklahoma +1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
845 Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Quick home and home revenge game for the Sooners, who just lost at home to the Cowboys 94-90 in overtime. It’s just the second home loss of the season for the Sooners. In that game Oklahoma was held to a season low offensive rebounding percentage. State has now won four straight games heading into this rematch. But the advanced stats say this team was fortunate to win the last two contests, both overtime victories. We love Lon Kruger as a coach and expect his team to have an additional spark here. The Sooners have dropped two straight and have Texas on deck. This is a must win for the visitor. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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02-27-21 | Furman -1.5 v. Wofford | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
735 Furman at Wofford The Paladins have won four straight and haven’t played a bad game since the 81-71 loss to Winthrop in mid-December. But there is one game i’m sure they have circled, tonight’s matchup with Wofford. You see the Terriers are the only team to beat Furman in Timmons Arena this year. In that game the Paladins had a season low free throw rate as the team just didn’t push the action. Wofford is coming off its best game of the season blowing out Western Carolina 80-56. You couldn’t ask for a better spot for the visitor. PLAY FURMAN |
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02-26-21 | Southern Utah v. Northern Arizona +8 | Top | 92-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
836 Southern Utah at Northern Arizona The Thunderbirds just beat the Lumberjacks 85-80 on Wednesday. Having now won six straight and 16 of 19 on the season, what is their motivation to run up a score here? Especially with a pretty good Portland State two game trip on deck. This is the final regular season game for the Lumberjacks. We don’t have to worry about any senior night distractions, as this team doesn’t have anyone graduating. Off three straight losses, including two uncompetitive games, you have to think you get a full effort from the host here. Much better spot play for the Lumberjacks. PLAY NORTHERN ARIZONA |
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02-24-21 | McNeese State +4 v. Southeastern Louisiana | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
307323 McNeese State at SE Louisiana The Cowboys matchup very well with Southeastern Louisiana. In fact, in the earlier meeting they had the best PPP of the conference season. Unfortunately they lost 92-88 in what was a very even game. The Cowboys have played their best ball of the season as of late despite a 2-4 record. This team has been right there in every game except the 64-56 loss to Lamar. This is an undervalued team right now. The Lions of Southeastern Louisiana have had more success lately in the win/loss column. But when looking at the advanced stats they have been extremely inconsistent. The recent wins have been legit, but the losses were much worse than the final scores. For example last Saturday in an 86-84 overtime loss to Nichols State, the Lions were completely outplayed and should have lost by double digits in regulation. The host has been rather lucky as of late while the visitor has been better than the final scores indicate. We will gladly take the points with the Cowboys. PLAY MCNEESE STATE |
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02-18-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Murray State -16 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
754 Eastern Illinois at Murray State The Panthers of Eastern Illinois have had a disappointing season. They rank 303rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 290th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They don’t get to the line ranking 331st in free throw rate, and when they get there they shoot 66.0% 295th in the country. But somehow they found a way to beat Murray State 74-68 back in early January. The Racers have won 8 of 11 games since that loss, as Murray State has turned around its season. With only SIU Edwardsville on deck after beating them by 29 on Monday, you know the Panthers have their full attention. This one should get ugly in a hurry. PLAY MURRAY STATE |
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02-17-21 | Western Carolina +8 v. Chattanooga | Top | 81-89 | Push | 0 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
681 Western Carolina at Chattanooga The Catamounts have really struggled in Southern Conference play. Posting a 2-10 record and losing to the Mocs 74-67 just two weeks ago. But despite the record Western has been very competitive this season, at least until Saturday when Furman took them to the woodshed in a 88-70 loss. They were actually fortunate in that contest, as the advanced numbers show it was the worst performance of the season for the Catamounts. What Mark Prosser’s team has done this season is bounce back from a bad performance. Chattanooga comes into this contest fat and happy. On a five game winning streak, including victories over East Tennessee State twice. Now they face the lowly Catamounts before taking on a home revenge contest against UNC Greensboro. Quite the sandwich game here for the host. Give us the points with the Catamounts to take this to the wire. PLAY WESTERN CAROLINA |
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02-14-21 | South Dakota State -3 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 95-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
821 South Dakota State at Oral Roberts The Jackrabbits had a litter of mistakes yesterday in a 103-86 loss to Oral Roberts. The defense which had been only slightly below average simply didn’t give any effort. The 103 points allowed was a season high, besting the previous high of 84 in a win over Bradley. The 125.2 defensive PPP was also a season high, and they permitted 16 of 30 from downtown. This was also the lowest ranked team the Jackrabbits have lost to this season. Oral Roberts has a good offense, but this defense is ranked 306th in Adjusted Efficiency. This club simply does not have the defensive prowess to hold down the Jackrabbits in back to back games. South Dakota State has followed losses this season with wins by margins of 24, 3, 43 and 11 points. That includes a good Utah State team, and Big 12 participant Iowa State. PLAY SOUTH DAKOTA STATE |
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02-13-21 | UCLA v. Washington +9.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
744 UCLA at Washington Bruins have dropped three of four with the offense really struggling as of late. They did beat Washington in Mid-January 81-76 but only shot 20 of 50 from two point range. UCLA was just blown away at USC 66-48, then dropped a 81-73 decision to Washington State. A team the Bruins beat by 30 points just four weeks prior. No way we want to lay points with this squad at the moment. Washington is a bad basketball team but have been a competitive 3-5 SU at home. The offense has improved greatly as of late with five of nine games producing 59.6 or better EFG%. They can compete with this fading Bruins team. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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02-12-21 | Manhattan +5.5 v. Iona | Top | 67-85 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
845 Manhattan at Iona The Jaspers have dropped four straight, but were the better team last time out in a 71-69 overtime loss to Monmouth. Only one of the last seven losses was by more than 5 points, with three games going to overtime. This is a much better team that its record. The Gaels have won three straight, but have been nothing special other than ranking 44th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Manhattan is actually pretty good as well ranking 89th in that category. Plenty of value here on an underdog that is quietly staying under the radar. PLAY MANHATTAN |
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02-11-21 | Utah -5 v. California | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
713 Utah at California The Utes were a team that suffered some bad luck losses early on. But have now won 4 of 6 as of late. One of those defeats came while hosting Cal in a 72-63 defeat. Since that time they outplayed Washington in a 83-79 loss, and beat Colorado and Arizona. Cal is only 5-5 straight up in this building, with four of those five victories coming against 180th and higher ranked opponents. On the season against Top 120 opposition the Bears are 2-14 SU. Look for that to continue on Thursday. PLAY UTAH |
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02-10-21 | Bradley -1.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 76-52 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
671 Bradley at Valparaiso We backed Valpo on Sunday as a sizable underdog against Drake. Not only did they cover wire to wire they actually ended the undefeated season for the Bulldogs. But this is another day, as we look to fade the fat and happy club off a nationally recognized upset win. While the Braves are 1-7 SU on the road this year, they have played much better than their record. A one point loss at Xavier, a one point loss at Missouri and a double overtime loss to these Crusaders. In that earlier meeting Valparaiso had a 53.5 free throw rate, which is the worst defensive FTR of the season for Bradley. The Braves on the other hand had a 21.8 FTR in that meeting. Bradley has lost 7 of 8 games recently, but our advanced stats show they should have split those eight games. We are catching an underrated team, with revenge, against a Valpo squad off its biggest win in recent memory. PLAY BRADLEY |
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02-08-21 | Oklahoma State +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
863 Oklahoma State at Kansas Cowboys off by far its worst offensive PPP of the season at 0.83. Made just 19 of 55 two pointers, keep in mind this is a Top 100 team from that range. Kansas has lost 5 of 7 as of late. Only wins were against TCU and Kansas State. Jayhawks are 4-7 vs Top 50 opposition, 4 of those wins were by 4 points or less. This line is simply too high to back the host. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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02-07-21 | Towson +4 v. College of Charleston | Top | 53-66 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
801 Towson at College of Charleston The Towson Tigers just lost to this team 90-88 in double overtime yesterday. Now seek to even the score at TD Arena. Towson is a team that is terrific on the offensive glass, ranking 14th in the nation in that regard. But the Cougars held their own in that category yesterday. Charleston isn’t anything special on this court with a 5-5 straight up mark. Two of those contests went to overtime. Look for Towson to even up the score here as they have shown a propensity to play better in these back to back contests. PLAY TOWSON |
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02-06-21 | Grambling State +6.5 v. Southern | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
307029 Grambling at Southern The Tigers have won 4 of 6 and two straight heading into this Southern rematch. The Jaguars won earlier on the road 61-55. That game was decided from long distance as Grambling shot just 3 of 17 while Southern cashed in on 8 of 18. Those numbers aren’t even close to how these two have performed from 3 point range on the season. Southern enters this contest off just its second road victory of the year, a 76-59 win at Alcorn State. The Jaguars held the Braves to a season low PPP of 76.4. Alcorn made just 1 of 13 from distance in that contest. Look for a bit of revenge here from Grambling who really should have had better success in the previous meeting. PLAY GRAMBLING |
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02-06-21 | Nicholls State +2.5 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
307031 Nicholls State at Sam Houston State The Colonels are running hot as of late winning eight straight games. Its last loss coming to this same Sam Houston State team. In that meeting the Bearkats hit 12 of 24 from distance, tying the worst 3 point defensive game of the season for Nicholls State. Sam Houston also enters this contest with a hot hand, with 10 of 11 victories. The lone loss was last time out at Stephen F Austin. While the Bearkats are playing on an undefeated home court, the price is a bit high playing into a hot avenging underdog. Should be a great competitive game but the Colonels get the victory. PLAY NICHOLLS STATE |
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02-06-21 | Charlotte -4.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 60-73 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
703 Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State These two played a really good game yesterday with the Blue Raiders coming out on top 66-65. That broke a three game winning streak for the 49ers. But upon closer inspection did the winning team deserve it? Charlotte simply wasn’t aggressive, with just a 16.7% in free throw rate. That is by far the worst performance of the season in that regard. It also didn’t help to shoot 3 of 12 from distance. Charlotte is by far the better team and we really don’t like the way Middle Tennessee State performs. Love to get the better squad off an embarrassing loss, especially in revenge. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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02-05-21 | Louisiana-Monroe +9 v. Texas-Arlington | Top | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
857 UL Monroe at UT Arlington 4-13 Monroe rides an eight game losing streak into this matchup with Arlington. They already dropped two home meetings 77-64 and 75-74. But we really liked the way the defense played in that last meeting, holding the Mavericks to 3 of 18 from downtown and 12 of 34 from two point range. That was the best defensive ppp of the season for the Warhawks. Arlington could be a bit fat and happy here after winning two of three lately, along with that earlier sweep. They are only 2-3 straight up at the College Park Center this year vs division one competition. Just too many points to lay for a team ranked 309th in offensive effective field goal percentage. PLAY UL MONROE |
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02-05-21 | Akron v. Kent State -2 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
872 Akron at Kent State We faded the Zips on Tuesday with success against Toledo. We do so again here with its cross town rival Kent State. The last time these two tangled was New Years Day when the Zips pulled out a 66-62 home victory. But a closer look at the stats show Akron held the Golden Flashes to 5 of 23 from downtown. The Zips had its second lowest offensive ppp in that contest and still won the game. That likely won’t hold up in the rematch on Friday. Kent has been riding hot as of late winning 7 of 8. The only loss coming at Toledo by two points. The only losses in regulation for Kent State this season have come against Toledo twice and these Zips. Look for Kent State to even this series with a solid victory. PLAY KENT STATE |
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02-03-21 | Seton Hall v. Providence | Top | 60-43 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
681 Seton Hall at Providence The Pirates are riding a season long three game losing streak heading into Providence. It’s also a team looking to avenge an earlier 80-77 overtime defeat. In that game the Friars shot 9 of 18 from deep, that was the second best shooting from downtown on the season. That from a team who ranks 213th in the country from 3 point range. Providence has seven victories on the season vs Top 100 competition. Three of those wins came in overtime. According to the Shot Quality website the Friars have 9 wins but only deserve 7.5 based on their shot selection. Seton Hall actually is a bit underrated, having won 9 but deserve 9.3 victories. With the Pirates desperate for a win we look for Seton Hall to have success on Wednesday. PLAY SETON HALL |
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02-02-21 | Morgan State v. Coppin State +3 | Top | 95-82 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
307306 Morgan State at Coppin State This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two as the Bears have taken 3 of 4 including a 79-76 win on Saturday. It’s also the second of four straight on the road for Morgan State. Coppin State played a much tougher non-conference schedule, with games against Duke, Georgetown and Virginia Tech. Since getting into league action the Eagles have won 5 of 7, the two losses coming against the Bears. We expect Juan Dixon and company to take out some frustration on Tuesday. PLAY COPPIN STATE |
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02-02-21 | Eastern Kentucky v. Jacksonville State -1.5 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
634 Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State The Colonels knocked off Jacksonville State in early January 69-66 in Overtime. Both teams were horrendous from distance combining for 9 of 54. Now on an 11-1 run heading into the rematch, the visitor looks to be a bit fat and happy. The Gamecocks are coming in off an embarrassing 85-66 home loss to Morehead State. That makes two straight defeats at the Pete Mathews Coliseum, after Belmont beat them 98-91 a little over two weeks ago. Those are the only two home losses on the season. With lowly Tennessee Martin on deck, we see the Gamecocks strutting after this one. PLAY JACKSONVILLE STATE |
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01-31-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 60-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
838 UNLV at Nevada The Rebels have played much better ball as of late winning 5 of 6 heading into this in-state rivalry. But keep in mind 4 of the 5 wins were against St Katherine, Benedictine Mesa and New Mexico twice. The only good team they have beaten all year was a 59-56 win over Utah State, who beat them by 9 in the quick rematch. The Rebels have won just one game on the road all year, at a very weak Kansas State. Nevada is off back to back losses at Wyoming, a tough home court. The only other defeats on the season were to San Francisco, Grand Canyon and San Diego State twice. This is a team that gets to the foul line extremely well and when its there it converts. UNLV on the other hand ranks 342nd in offensive free throw rate. Look for the host to take advantage of its longest home stand of the season, and get a solid victory against the Rebels. PLAY NEVADA |
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01-29-21 | Cavs -1 v. Knicks | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
573 Cleveland at New York Third meeting between these two this year with each team grabbing a victory. In the first meeting the Knicks shot lights out from distance in a 95-86 victory. What made that so surprising was that the vast majority of those threes were defended very well. In the second meeting New York wasn’t nearly as lucky and Cleveland won 106-103. Now almost fully healthy we look for Cleveland to once again get the better of the Knicks. New York returns home for the first time after playing four games on the west coast in six days. We all know how hard it is the first time back in town from a family situation. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive turnover percentage which can really be a problem against the 1st ranked turnover defense of the Cavaliers. Cleveland’s offensive success is predicated on turnovers as this team also has great success with deflections. The guard combo for the visitor has great speed which leads to easy baskets for the Cavs. We expect that to happen often here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-27-21 | Thunder v. Suns -7 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
552 Oklahoma City at Phoenix Thunder are playing its third game in for days all in different cities. They just broke a three game losing streak in Portland last night. This is the final game of a five game trip, and may be satisfied after that victory last night. Phoenix hasn’t played the past three days, so this is a team in much better position to play wire to wire. Especially when you consider this is their fifth game in the last 18 days. Coming off back to back overtime losses hosting Denver, the Suns have much more motivation for a victory tonight. The Thunder are dead last in offensive rebound rate, which should be a major deal against a Suns team that clears the boards defensively in the Top 10. PLAY PHOENIX |
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01-26-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
621 Oklahoma at Texas Sooners have won three straight games but now step up in class to play three straight Top 20 squads. Oklahoma ranks 4th in the nation in opponent free throw rate, which is very important when playing on opposing courts. Evan Miya currently has Texas the 312th ranked home court in college basketball. So there will be no intimidation factor for the Longhorns. According to shotquality.com Oklahoma is in the 99th percentile in adjusted offensive SQ rank, and in the 96th percentile in the same defensive ranking. That means the Sooners take high quality shots and limit high scoring chances for the opposition. Texas sits at 93 and 92 in those categories. Texas is 11-2 on the season but have been very lucky with their scoring chances. ShotQuality states that the Longhorns should only be 8.7 and 4.3 in win/loss record. We will fade the overrated Longhorns here on a weak home court. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-24-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-141 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
571 Cleveland at Boston The Cavaliers continue to be overlooked just because of the name on the front of the jersey. This team is a money maker and are now almost fully healthy with Dellavedova and Love remaining out. The trade with the Nets made this one of the deeper teams in the league. This club leads the NBA in defensive turnover percentage and tipped passes. That’s a concern against a Boston team ranking 20th in offensive turnover percentage. The entire team has been buying in defensively, and now the starting backcourt is fully healthy. Jason Tatum remains doubtful for the Celtics as well. We feel the visitor wins this outright. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-23-21 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +2.5 | Top | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
744 Pittsburgh at Wake Forest The Panthers are riding high, winning 8 of 9 and 4 of 5 in conference. Off two wins over Syracuse and beating Duke. After four Top 70 opponents, and six Top 70 opponents on deck, we can see the Panthers overlooking the Demon Deacons here. Wake has lost six straight games, all against top competition. The Panthers at #70 in our ratings are actually the worst team Wake has faced this entire month. After facing the cream of the crop in the ACC, Wake Forest is extremely underrated. Wake is weak defending inside but Pitt is just average from that range. We smell upset. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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01-22-21 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State +4 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
836 Georgia State at Appalachian State The Panthers have gotten off to a nice 8-2 start on the season, 2-1 in the Sun Belt Conference. Coming off a rarity, three straight games against Coastal Carolina. After winning the last two, we can see this team having a bit of a letdown here. Georgia State is a team that forces defensive turnovers and gets to the foul line. But this team ranks 329th in free throw shooting at 61.9%. Always tough laying points with a bad free throw shooting team, especially on the road. App State ranks 2nd in the nation in opponent free throw rate, as they simply do not give away free points at the line. They also take decent care of the ball, so turnovers shouldn’t be a concern. The Mountaineers are 7-2 straight up at Holmes Center this year, with one of those losses coming in overtime. This should be a good matchup for the home underdog. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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01-20-21 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
712 Northwestern at Wisconsin After starting the conference season with a 3-0 mark, the opposition has made the needed adjustments to Chris Collins’ scheme. The Wildcats have dropped five straight losing by margins of 23, 10, 25, 19 and 15 points. Now they must travel to what evanmiya.com considers the strongest home court in the country. Wisconsin has had plenty of time to prepare after bouncing back from that terrible performance at Michigan. It won 60-54 at Rutgers, a tough place to play. Wisconsin shot 6 of 25 from distance against the Scarlet Knights, the worst long distance shooting of the season. We expect the Badgers to run the Wildcats out of the building. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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01-17-21 | Tarleton St v. Weber State -12 | Top | 79-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
842 Tarleton State at Weber State This is a huge situational advantage for the host. The visitor is one of the worst programs in Division 1 hoops. It has yet to beat a team on its Divion 1 schedule. They are playing the third road game in three days, and only use a seven man rotation. Weber State has 13 days off because of Covid, and played yesterday in a game it won by 80 points. The bench played extended minutes in that contest. So we have a very rested team that got the rust off yesterday against Yellowstone Christian. Well rested in altitude is the situation today. A huge edge for the host. PLAY WEBER STATE |
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01-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
816 Western Kentucky at Marshall Quick home and home for these two after the Hilltoppers won on Friday 81-73. We expect some regression from the foul line for the visitor who ranks 6th in the country in free throw shooting percentage. That’s a far cry from the 252nd ranked 3 point percentage, and 157th ranked 2 point offensive percentage. Marshall isn’t very good at getting to the line, but the previous matchup was by far the worst in that regard all season. Just a 7.0 free throw rate compared to a season rank of 25.9. We also see that the Thundering Herd allowed a season high 43.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Marshall has lost on this court just once all season, in overtime to a Top 70 Toledo team. Look for Dan D’Antoni to have his team playing with much more energy here than on Friday. PLAY MARSHALL |
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01-15-21 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -5 | Top | 76-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
852 Bowling Green at Buffalo The Falcons took the previous meeting at home 86-78, getting to the free throw line on a regular basis. That’s not a regular occurance for this team and we expect somewhat of a reversal here. Buffalo struggled offensively early on, but have been much better the past four games. The Bulls have won 4 of 5 as of late with the lone loss in overtime at Syracuse. Like the revenge angle here for a team on the rise. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-14-21 | Ducks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -132 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
71 Anaheim at Las Vegas The Ducks don’t have a great deal of offense, but their youth is very exciting. This is a team that will get better as the year goes on, and will always play full out. Vegas is expected to contend out west, but we do have some worries early on with our home town team. This was by far the strongest home arena in the NHL in the past. The lack of fans along with the league’s Covid rules will lessen that advantage more than any other team. Vegas is always a destination for visiting teams, but these players won’t be going out partying like in the past. The Golden Knights also will be without two major pieces of the puzzle this season because of cap issues. While Petrangelo is a great signing, not sure this team is better without Schmitty and Patches. PLAY ANAHEIM +1 1/2 |
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01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
718 Stanford at Utah The Cardinal have reeled off 7 of 8 wins as of late, but were only 1-1 against top 100 opposition. The victory by just three points at home against Arizona. This team ranks 286th in the nation in 3 point percentage. The past five games Stanford has gone 18 of 77 23% from long range. That tells us that if the Cardinal fall behind here it will be very difficult to come back. Utah is just 4-5 on the season but are a much better team than the record suggests. According to the Bart Torvic site, the Utes should have won six of those contests. Off four straight losses this is a must win for the host. We’ve been looking to back the underrated Utes and the time is right. PLAY UTAH |
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01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -2 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
550 Oklahoma City at New York The Thunder enter play with a 3-4 mark, but have been very fortunate to have that number of wins. They are 3rd in the NBA in wins over expectation, as their numbers show it should have only 1.9 victories. This is a team that ranks 30th in points per possession, and 30th in offensive rebounding percentage. New York ranks 3rd defensively in points per possession, and 2nd in effective field goal percentage. Austin Rivers ranks in the 100th percentile in points per shot attempt, while Julius Randle is in the 98th percentile in bigs with a 30.2% assist rate. Can’t see the Thunder having any success offensively here as the Knicks continue to be underrated in the betting markets. PLAY NEW YORK |
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01-07-21 | UNLV v. Colorado State -9 | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
740 UNLV at Colorado State Rebels enter this contest at 1-4 on the season and they haven’t played since December 5th because of Covid. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 291st in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 331st in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.2% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 49.5 effective field goal percentage. Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 4-0 in this building. The wins here have been by margins of 12, 39, 22 and 22 points. Since it’s a back to back situation with the Rebels, the altitude should be more pronounced in the first game. The Rams run defensive circles around the Rebels, the line here is high for a reason. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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01-06-21 | Virginia Tech +5 v. Louisville | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
673 Virginia Tech at Louisville Hokies first road game of the season could be a concern here. That said, we’ve been very impressed by VT thus far this season. Coming in with an 8-1 mark with wins over Villanova and Clemson. Louisville is still without two of its best players, and we still aren’t sold on the Cards offense. This team has won 7 of 8, but were very fortunate to beat Kentucky and Seton Hall. Keep in mind opponents are only shooting 61% from the free throw line, which obviously isn’t sustainable. Give us the points in what should be a very tight contest. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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01-04-21 | Cavs +5.5 v. Magic | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
575 Cleveland at Orlando The Magic really want to run this year, but they haven’t done it with a whole lot of success thus far. Orlando will have troubles tonight against a Cavs team that has had success in the open court as well as in the half court game. We really expect the big men for Cleveland to have a big night as the Orlando front court players are weak defensively, especially the All-Star center who is more worried about offense. Cleveland is the more rounded team here and we expect this club to win at least one of these two games outright. The points are a nice bonus. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-04-21 | Southern Illinois +10.5 v. Drake | Top | 55-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
867 Southern Illinois at Drake Heading into this season Southern Illinois was expected to finish 4th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake was expected to be a 7th place team. Now after ten or so games being played Drake is a double digit home favorite against the Salukis. Sure the Bulldogs pulled away late for an 18 point victory yesterday, but this was a close game for the majority of the contest. In fact, that win yesterday was the first Division 1 victory for the Bulldogs over a team with a current winning record. And it isn’t even close as many of the Drake victims have been horrible. Drake is undefeated on the season against the spread. Many people have used Drake as their own personal ATM. But the betting lines tend to catch up, and this line based on talent is simply insane. PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS |
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01-03-21 | Jets +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 23 m | Show |
115 NY Jets at New England Now that tanking for Trevor is over in New York, the Jets have played really good ball the last two weeks. It also helps that New York just played a Browns team without its top four receivers. Because the New England passing game downfield has been non-existent this season. The Patriots have a short week of preparation, from playing Monday night. This is also a quick revenge game for the Jets who should have beaten the Pats on national television just a few weeks ago. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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01-02-21 | Stanford v. Oregon -5.5 | Top | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Undefeated in the New Year after sweeping the Friday board. Now on a 26-17 overall run. We set our sights out west for this Strong Selection in College Basketball. One club on this PAC 12 card has a major mismatch advantage we feel isn't being fully appreciated in these betting markets. We set our sights on taking full advantage of that weakness. |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +7 v. Georgia | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
327 Cincinnati & Georgia Plenty of reasons to back the Bearcats here. This is an undefeated team with a chance to play a top team from the SEC. Cincinnati feels they were slighted by the selection committee and have something to prove. Georgia on the other hand did not have dreams before the season to be playing in this game. Their expectations were much higher. Throw in the fact that many of the top players for the Bulldogs are sitting out in preparation for the draft. And we have a team likely not fully focused on the contest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-31-20 | Michigan -1 v. Maryland | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
737 Michigan at Maryland The undefeated Wolverines have already beaten three top 100 squads by margins of 22, 4 and 20 points. This club ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 33rd in the defensive equivalent. Michigan has dominated in the paint ranking 9th offensively and 2nd defensively. Michigan hasn’t played in six days, while Maryland is playing its fourth game in ten days. Maryland is 1-3 vs top 100 opponents, and the only win was last time out in a road upset of Wisconsin. While the offense for the Terrapins ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency, the Maryland defense isn’t high quality. In a pick and win situation the Wolverines have been by far the more consistent squad. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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12-29-20 | Knicks v. Cavs -3 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
560 New York at Cleveland Coming into the season both these teams were rated almost exactly the same. The Knicks enter play at 1-2 while the surprising Cavaliers are undefeated at 3-0. We’ve watched all three Cleveland games, and this team is much better than the preseason expectations. The Cavs lead the league in spread difference at +16.7, and are 2nd in the NBA in defense. Cleveland now has two really good big men that have kept the opposition out of the paint. The offense is being led by two of the best young players at the guard spot in Garland and Sexton. Neither were very good defensively last year, but with the new style of play they have picked up the defense very well. In our opinion Garland was so bad last year he could be a nice comeback player of the year candidate. Kevin Love is out from 3-4 weeks, which actually helps the youngsters keep the ball moving. Cleveland has been excellent on assisted baskets in this young season. Number is cheap once again, as the Cavaliers are much improved. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-28-20 | Missouri State +3.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
833 Missouri State at Northern Iowa Quick rematch after the Bears pounded Northern Iowa yesterday 79-59. The big differential that will be talked about is the perimeter shooting. The visitor shot 11 of 25 from 3, while the host was 4 of 20 from long distance. But keep in mind, the Panthers rank 250th in the country defending the 3 pointer. The only team they kept in check from distance was St Ambrose, a 2 for 25 from long distance, also the only win on the season for Northern Iowa. That 8% from distance really brings down these terrible defensive numbers. Missouri State has played much better ball in the early going. Despite the quick revenge situation, the Bears are the better team catching points. PLAY MISSOURI STATE |
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12-27-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
530 Philadelphia at Cleveland Second game of a back to back for Joel Embiid after playing over 30 minutes last night at New York. Teams get up to play in Madison Square Garden, and a likely letdown here traveling to Cleveland is likely. The Cavs on the other hand have played very well to open the season. The offense is flowing better than anyone projected, and the defense is much better with the additions up front. This is a team with confidence right now, and the line is simply too high to not back the surprising Cavs at home. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans -7.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
464 Cincinnati at Houston The Bengals just played their Super Bowl on Monday night with a third string quarterback against their hated rival. Keep in mind even in that game how bad this offense has been. Now it’s taking on a Houston scoring unit that has moved the ball well all season. While Monday was the big game for the Bengals, this game means more for the disappointing Texans who actually entered the season with high expectations. Houston lets out some frustrations here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
283 Liberty & Coastal Carolina in Orlando Short and sweet. Our numbers have this as a four point advantage with the favorite. A one point loss cost Liberty its own undefeated season. And because of the national press Coastal has gotten, this line is inflated. Liberty has the ability to run the football extremely well and keep the opposition at bay. This game goes down to the final possession. PLAY LIBERTY |
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12-23-20 | Hornets -2 v. Cavs | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
551 Charlotte at Cleveland The Cavaliers will have a tough time scoring tonight without Kevin Love and its key sixth man. Colin Sexton is coming off an ankle injury in the final preseason game, so he likely won’t be 100%. Charlotte addition Gordon Hayward is expected to play after coming back from a broken finger. The addition of LaMelo Ball should make this team a step better than a season ago. With little to no home court advantage we prefer the team on the rise. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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12-22-20 | North Carolina -1 v. NC State | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
673 North Carolina at NC State The Tar Heels have played very well in this series as the coaching edge has definitely been with North Carolina. We backed the Tar Heels earlier in the week with success, and we feel the inside area will be dominated by the visitor. Keep in mind the Tar Heels rank 5th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This team is also 20th in defensive adjusted efficiency. The Wolfpack doesn’t have very good guard play, and they are a bit beat up heading into what should be a physical contest. State has benefited from an easy slate, playing only one team ranking in the top 200. That was against St Louis, and the Wolfpack lost that game by 11. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
367 San Francisco at Dallas Late smart money has been backing the Niners this morning. We agree with the line move, good time to bet against a Cowboys team just playing out the season. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6 | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
232 Oklahoma & Iowa State in Arlington Since Matt Campbell has come to Ames the Cyclones have fared well against the Sooners. Earlier this year Iowa State won 37-30, as a 7.5 point underdog. Last year as a 14.5 point underdog they lost by a single point. In 2018 Iowa State was an 18.5 point underdog and only lost by 10. In 2017 the Cyclones upset the Sooners 38-31 as a whopping 31 point underdog. In 2016 Iowa State lost by 10 while getting 20.5 points. That’s a perfect 5-0 ATS covering by 85 combined points. When looking at Phil Steele’s average game grades the Sooners should only be a 2.7 point favorite. Under Matt Campbell the Cyclones are 18-8 ATS as an underdog. Give us the better coached team catching points in a series they have dominated ATS. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
130 Boise State at Wyoming The Broncos have dominated this series winning 13 of 14 meetings. But last years game went to overtime, and this line is simply too high. Tough to back a road favorite who is being outgained 4.6 yards per carry to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. Despite the 4-1 record Boise State has given up seven first downs more than they have obtained. This is a big play offense that is taking on a stop unit that allows just 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Wyoming the past four games have permitted just 92, 158, 255 and 110 yards through the air. This is also just the second home game of the season for the Cowboys. The last five seasons Wyoming is 21-6 straight up at War Memorial Stadium. A win here extends the Cowboys non-losing seasons streak to five years, that’s important in these trying times. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-12-20 | Michigan State v. Penn State -14.5 | Top | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 117 h 45 m | Show |
392 Michigan State at Penn State The Spartan running attack has been pathetic all season averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. Only once has this team broken the 4 ypc barrier, and that was 4.1 ypc against Northwestern. The passing game was adequate the first two games but since then this team has thrown for 180, 167, 131 and 227 yards. In those last four games the Spartans have totaled 48 total points, just 12 per game. Now it takes on a rejuvenated Penn State squad. The Nittany Lions lost the turnover battle in each of its first five games. Tough to win and cover when you can’t hold on to the football. But the last two games turnovers were even and Penn State won both contests by a combined score of 50-24. On the season the Nittany Lions have a whopping +87 first down advantage when compared to the Spartans. This team made every mistake imaginable early, but the talent is now shining through. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-10-20 | UMKC +18 v. Minnesota | Top | 61-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
855 UMKC at Minnesota Kansas City enters play at 2-2 on the season and this is a major step up in class for the Roos. But this team is well rested having not played since November 30th, and is very slow paced. Ranking 309th in adjusted tempo, which is big when taking on a team as a double digit underdog. Minnesota enters with a perfect 5-0 record, but other than the 30 point opening night win over Green Bay, this team hasn’t looked overly impressive. The last three games were home wins over Boston College in overtime, a nine point victory over North Dakota, and a three point win hosting Loyola Marymount. This is a huge sandwich game after the overtime win over BC on Tuesday, and a huge conference matchup with Illinois next Tuesday. This really could be the toughest scheduling spot of the season for the Golden Gophers. PLAY UMKC |
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12-09-20 | Southern Utah -3.5 v. Utah Valley | Top | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
637 Southern Utah at Utah Valley The Thunderbirds are flying high off back to back wins over a good Montana squad. Todd Simon and Southern Utah are off back to back 17 win seasons, and look improved again with a 3-1 start to the season. This despite allowing 43.5% shooting from beyond the arc. This is a veteran team with nine upperclassmen. Utah Valley is projected to be slightly higher in the standings than Chicago State. That should tell you all you need to know about the Wolverines. This club returns zero starters from a team that won just 11 games a season ago. They only have one senior on the roster, as this is obviously a young group. They were able to beat two non-division one programs, but lost to BYU by 22. With a 2-1 record this will be the last time we see the Wolverines over .500 this season. They rank 330th in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting just 37.2% from 2 point range. Clear class difference here. PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH |
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12-09-20 | Eastern Illinois -3.5 v. Evansville | Top | 65-68 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
623 Eastern Illinois at Evansville The Panthers started the year with losses to big boys Wisconsin, Marquette and Dayton, but won the last two when stepping down in class. Eastern won 17 games a year ago under Jay Spoonhour, and the schedule gets easier from here on out. The Panthers have an amazing seven seniors on the roster, with just two underclassmen. Evansville was winless in the Missouri Valley Conference last year, and brings back four starters. Is that good or bad? So far, bad would be your answer, as the club has dropped three straight to start the season. Coming off a heartbreaking double overtime loss to Tennessee Martin, we simply can’t see this club fully focused here. The goal from Todd Lickliter was to improve the defense, but the club currently ranks 273rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give us the more talented senior laden Panthers. PLAY EASTERN ILLINOIS |
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12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
LA Rams at Arizona The Rams have dominated this series, as Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals. Wins by 33, 16, 22, 27 and 7 points. The key to the Rams offensive success is keeping Goff clean, and the Cardinals don’t put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Even less because of the Cardinals defensive injury situation. Add in the fact that Murray’s go to receiver Larry Fitzgerald is out, and we see a cheap number for Los Angeles. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-05-20 | Rider v. Syracuse -22.5 | Top | 52-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
656 Rider at Syracuse The Broncs won 18 games last year but have been devastated by graduation and transfers. In fact, the team will have all five new starters today in its first game of the season. Coach Kevin Baggett came out this week and said his team just isn’t ready to compete. Syracuse beat us earlier in the week and we were very impressed. This is a team that is known for its defense and should have little problem facing a team coming out of Covid. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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12-03-20 | Air Force -11 v. Utah State | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
325 Air Force at Utah State Huge edge for the Falcons here if you look at game grades. The lowest score of the season was 83.5 at San Jose State, while Utah State is averaging 70.1 on the season. So if Air Force matches its worst game, this line would make sense. Fortunately we expect a much better outcome for the Falcons here. Obviously Air Force wants to run the football, with a 5.8 ypc on the season. Utah State allows 5.1 ypc on the year. The Aggies have really struggled getting off the field, allowing 64 more first downs than they create. That’s not what you want to see when facing a team that runs the ball down your throat. Look for this game to be competitive early, but for the visitor to wear out the Aggies as the game progresses. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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12-03-20 | Connecticut -1 v. USC | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
751 Connecticut & USC Major step up game for the Huskies who have faced just Central Connecticut and Hartford. That said, we really feel the elite Husky guards should dominate this contest. UConn enters this game ranked 14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. USC is big underneath which is the strength of the team, but UConn has enough height to keep the Trojans off the boards. USC is coming off a blowout victory over BYU, an impressive win. But the Cougars simply don’t have the athleticism that the Huskies have. Off a 3-0 start and the hype from the BYU victory, USC comes into this contest a bit overrated. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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11-29-20 | Houston Baptist v. Arizona State -34.5 | Top | 77-100 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
307102 Houston Baptist at Arizona State The Huskies went 4-25 last year and 0-9 when not playing a league participant. They are expected to once again bring up the rear of the Southland Conference. This is a team that lacks talent and depth, two traits that don’t work against this fast paced and talented Sun Devils squad. Arizona State is taking a huge step down in class after facing Rhode Island and Villanova. Off a loss in which it scored just 74 points, we can see this team continuing to score at win regardless of the lead. Lay it in a clear talent and depth mismatch. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
474 LA Rams at Tampa Bay This is a tough matchup for the Rams defense. While the numbers say this stop unit is elite, we look a bit deeper. The Rams haven’t played an offense with this many different weapons. Tampa Bay uses offensive schemes that the Rams struggle with. Offensively we all know how Goff struggles under pressure and on the road. Tampa Bay does a great job of getting pressure. Better than just about anyone on the Rams schedule. While we know the strength of this defense in rushing the QB from the inside, which is a problem for Brady. We have much more concerns about Goff and the LA offense. In what could turn into a lower scoring game, we back the MNF favorite. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns -2 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 162 h 49 m | Show |
452 Philadelphia at Cleveland Very surprised by the current line on this game as the Eagles continue to underperform. The only Philadelphia wins this season have come against a banged up 49ers team, the NY Giants and Dallas. Against the AFC Central the Eagles tied the Bengals and lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Carson Wentz has struggled in the passing game all year, and Cleveland has limited 3 of the last 4 opponents to 153, 148 and 101 yards through the air. Cleveland has the much better run game and they take much better care of the football. The Browns loses this year have come against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Oakland. Three of the top teams in the NFL. Against the NFC East they have won by 14 over Washington and 11 over Dallas. The Eagles simply don’t have the talent this year to compete on the road against a healthy Browns squad. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-18-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +7 | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
312 Toledo at Eastern Michigan The Eagles have played Toledo virtually equal the past three seasons, despite playing two of those games on the road. In 2017 as a 13.5 point underdog Eastern lost by only five points. In 2018 Eastern won outright 28-26 as a 1.5 point underdog. Last year at Toledo the game went to overtime in a 37-34 loss as a 3.5 point underdog. In fact, the Eagles have covered each of the past four years. This despite the Rockets winning nine more games than the Eagles overall during that timeframe. Â Eastern Michigan is a tremendous underdog under Chris Creighton. Posting a 24-4-1 record when catching points the last 4+ seasons. With the Eagles coming in 0-2, we look for this to be a circled game for the host. The Rockets are only 3-9 straight up on the road as of late, including a last second loss at Western Michigan a week ago. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -13.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
179 Nevada & New Mexico in Las Vegas This game has been moved to Las Vegas because of the high cover counts in New Mexico. The Wolf Pack have looked impressive out of the gate with Impressive wins over Wyoming, UNLV and Utah State. They outgained the opposition in those contests by a total of 616 yards. The passing game has produced 420, 350 and 421 yards. Over the past five seasons Nevada has faced New Mexico three times. Covering by margins of 7 1/2, 6 and 13 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack just played in this building two weeks ago, which should be a sizable advantage. Head Coach Jay Norvell is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite. New Mexico has posted a combined record of 8-30 straight up the past three plus seasons. With this game being moved, this will be the third of five straight games away from Albuquerque. The Lobos pass defense has been horrendous thus far, allowing 891 passing yards in two games. The opposition is completing 73.1% of its passes. With Nevada QB Carson Strong coming in with a 9 to 0 TD to INT ratio, as well as an outstanding 171.7 quarterback rating. This looks like a long night for this Lobos stop unit. PLAY NEVADA |
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11-14-20 | Louisville +3 v. Virginia | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -107 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
225 Louisville at Virginia This is the rescheduled game from a week ago which was postponed because of covid. Two weeks ago the Cardinals had nine players sit out the Virginia Tech game because of the virus, but the entire team has tested negative heading into this week. The Cardinals fought hard in a 42-35 loss to the Hokies, and are really looking forward to getting back on the field. Louisville has won f of the last 5 meetings in this series, including an outright underdog victory a year ago. Despite the 2-5 record coming into this game, having an extra week to prepare should really help Scott Satterfield in his second season. There is only one team in this matchup with big play ability, and that’s the Cardinals. In seven games the offense has produced 45 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing just 31. Virginia on the other hand in six games have produced just 19 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing a whopping 44. While Louisville enters this contest off a loss, the Cavaliers pulled a major upset of North Carolina last time out. That despite allowing 443 yards through the air to the Tar Heels. In the Virginia victories this season the Cavaliers have a +5 turnover advantage. Without the turnover edge this team has yet to taste victory. With Louisville dominating recent play, off a loss, and having a huge explosive play advantage, we will back the visitor. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 136 h 50 m | Show |
142 TCU at West Virginia The Horned Frogs need to run the football to be effective. They are averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The passing game has struggled all year including managing just 73 yards last week hosting Texas Tech. Unfortunately they are going up against a West Virginia defense allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are even better against the pass, holding every team to 230 yards or less. Including 6 of 7 opponents to less than 190 yards. West Virginia is undefeated at home this season. They have covered by margins of 16 1/2, 23 1/2, 6 and 17 1/2 the last four years against TCU. The Mountaineers have the more complete offense and the better defense. This is always a tough place to play, especially for TCU who have been outscored the last two visits here by a combined score of 81-20. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-14-20 | Indiana v. Michigan State +7 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -104 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
164 Indiana at Michigan State The Hoosiers are now highly ranked after its blowout victory over Michigan. Now a perfect 3-0 on the young season. But when breaking down the Indiana games we see that they are being outgained per play 5.28 yards to 4.71 yards. The three teams they have beaten are a combined 2-4 straight up when not facing Indiana. When looking at turnover rates we see Indiana at +6 while Michigan State is -7. Regressing works in the favor of the home dog here. Both teams played Rutgers and Michigan. Indiana won both games with a combined yardage advantage of 199. Michigan State split with a yardage advantage of 90. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 games between these two clubs. Indiana also has a major lookahead with a trip to Ohio State on deck. We are not buying into the Hoosier hype. Take the points with the Spartans. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia +7 v. Texas | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 137 h 25 m | Show |
377 West Virginia at Texas The Mountaineers have won 3 of the last 5 meetings including two straight in Texas, both in the underdog role. Coming into this contest 0-2 on the road this season, makes sure Neal Brown and the coaching staff will have this team ready. QB Jarret Doege has an impressive 11 to 3 TD to INT ratio, and the running game has been solid. Defensively West Virginia is allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, and have 9 interceptions to 7 touchdowns allowed. Texas beat Oklahoma State a week ago, but only had a 3% chance of victory at the end of the game. In other words they were very lucky. Getting outgained 530 to 287 in yardage. The Longhorns took advantage of a +4 turnover edge. Texas has only produced one passing game of over 290 yards on the season, that was the opener against UTEP. Without having success through the air we see no way this host gets past this number. Keep in mind Texas is 6-11 ATS as a home favorite under Tom Herman. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-04-20 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -22 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
292 Bowling Green at Toledo How bad has it been for the Falcons to keep a talented quarterback? James Morgan transferred to FIU, Jarret Doege is now the starter at West Virginia, and last years QB Grant Loy is sitting the bench for Auburn. Junior Matt McDonald will be the signal caller this year after throwing eight passes the last two seasons at Boston College. The two deep chart features nine true freshmen and seven redshirt freshmen. Bowling Green had three victories a year ago. Beating FCS entrant Morgan State, Winless Akron, and a 20-7 upset win over these Rockets. Last year was the first time in over a decade the Rockets didn’t have a winning record. Toledo started the year losing to a solid Kentucky team, then reeled off four straight victories before the BG upset loss. That game completely turned around the Toledo season, so we know Jason Candle has circled this game for the hosts. The Rockets return 14 starters and have a much more veteran team than the Falcons. This should get ugly. PLAY TOLEDO |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-6 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 19 m | Show |
260 Las Vegas at Cleveland The key to slowing down this Browns offense is to put pressure on Baker Mayfield. Cleveland has beaten every team not excelling in defensive sacks per pass attempt. The two Cleveland losses were to the Steelers and Ravens. That's the 1st and 4th ranked in that defensive category. The Raiders rank 25th in the league. When facing teams not ranked in the top four, Cleveland has scored 35, 34, 49, 32 and 37 points. Lay the number with the Browns in what looks to be a big offensive game for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-31-20 | Charlotte +10 v. Duke | Top | 19-53 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
125 Charlotte at Duke Big game for Will Healy and the 49ers who get the rare opportunity of taking on in-state rival Duke. QB Chris Reynolds had an excellent QB rating a year ago at 153.6, and he’s picked right back up this year. Duke has shot themselves in the foot all season when it comes to turnovers. Losing 10 of 13 fumbles and throwing 12 interceptions to only 6 touchdowns. The team passer rating is only 106.68 on the year. Chase Brice, the Clemson transfer has been a major disappointment. Charlotte takes care of the football with only three turnovers on the season. Can’t see the Blue Devils getting right against this well coached veteran Charlotte team. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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10-31-20 | Rice +1.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
155 Rice at Southern Miss Rice showed a great deal of heart in losing to Middle Tennessee State in overtime a week ago. It was the first game action of the season for the Owls, who started slowly as expected. But after adjusting to the game speed it was clear Rice was the better team. Now after the quadruple doink field goal miss, we expect the Owls to bounce back big time on Saturday. Southern Miss is down to its third head coach this season. As Scotty Walden took a step down in our opinion to take the Austin Peay job. If your interim coach would bale in the middle of a season, what does that tell you about this job. Enough said, go Owls! PLAY RICE |
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10-25-20 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
461 Carolina at New Orleans Who has the better offense in this game? If you said the Saints you may want to step back and look at the numbers. New Orleans ranks 14th in passing yards per play and 22nd in rushing yards per play. And it gets even worse for the Saints as they are missing key members of this offense this week. Carolina by the way comes in at 8th and 19th respectively. With the Panthers defense ranking 2nd in passing yards per play allowed at 5.94, we have a clear play on the touchdown underdog. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-24-20 | Cincinnati +2.5 v. SMU | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
347 Cincinnati at SMU Big three weeks for the Bearcats who play the Mustangs, Memphis and Houston. Luke Fickell has done a terrific job here off back to back 11 win seasons. This defense allowed 20.6 points per game a year ago and brought back nine starters. After three games Cincinnati has intercepted 7 passes while allowing exactly zero passing touchdowns. SMU and former Texas standout Shane Buechele lead a strong passing game for the Mustangs. But this team hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near as good as the Bearcats. Cincinnati is currently ranked in the Top 10. In Sonny Dykes career his teams are 0-7 SU vs Top 10 and 4-17 SU vs Top 25 opposition. We will back the Bearcats here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-24-20 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 3 m | Show |
339 Rutgers at Michigan State What does it say about this Michigan State program that it replaced a legend in Mark Dantonio, with Mel Tucker who went 5-7 in his only head coaching job a year ago at Colorado. The same 5-7 record the Buffaloes had in each of the two prior seasons. The Spartans averaged only 22 points per game in 2019, and still haven’t announced who the starting quarterback is. Defensively Michigan State only brings back three starters, so questions abound all over this roster. Greg Schiano is back in his familiar territory of New Brunswick. He started here in 2001 and left after the 2011 season. He has a winning record with the Knights, 68-67 in his previous tenure. That’s enough to celebrate his return to New Jersey. The Scarlet Knights added some big transfers including QN Noah Vedral from Nebraska. Overall 16 starters return to what looks to be a far more physical squad. Rutgers is also looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout in its final home game of 2019. Money has come in on Rutgers since the opener, and that’s smart money. Nobody but pros would step in to back a 3-21 football team the past two seasons. We agree with the move as Schiano has proven himself to be a quality college football head coach, something this state hasn’t seen since he left close to a decade ago. PLAY RUTGERS |
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10-18-20 | Rams -3 v. 49ers | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 2 m | Show |
273 Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco The Rams rank 1st in the NFL in average yards per pass attempt at 8.68, the 49ers 23rd at 6.68. That means every time one of these quarterbacks go back for a pass the Rams have a 2 yard advantage offensively. The Rams also lead the NFL allowing just 5.56 ypp, while the Niners sit 13th at 6.74. So the passing advantage is huge for the visitor. LA also is 2nd in defensive sacks per attempt. The 49ers are getting healthier but the Rams are still better in the trenches. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-18-20 | Falcons v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 40-23 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
256 Atlanta at Minnesota The Texans had success last week after firing it's head coach in the middle of the season. But that's a rarity when it comes to covering the spread. Atlanta cleaned house after losing on Sunday, but this team has more problems than the head coach and GM. The Falcons defense continues to struggle against teams it should be able to beat. Blowing leads has been the norm, and this club is now 0-5 on the season. With a veteran team we can only see things getting worse. Minnesota has played better as of late and they almost pulled off the upset at Seattle on Sunday. This team continues to play with heart, something we just haven't seen from the Falcons. Grab this play now before the line rises. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-18-20 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 37 m | Show |
257 Houston at Tennessee Despite the current records we feel the Texans to have the better roster. And now without a Head Coach/GM that held them back, there is plenty of value on the visitor. The Texans rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per play, Tennessee 14th. Houston also runs the ball better than the Titans, 4.15 ypr to 3.87. Defensively Tennessee does have a slight edge defending the pass, 15th to 17th. But once again Houston’s defense against the run is better, 25th to 32nd and dead last for Tennessee. The Titans allow 5.49 yards per rush, which is higher than the LA Rams allow per pass! With home field advantage being lower than ever, we will back the better team catching points. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-17-20 | Marshall v. Louisiana Tech +13.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
162 Marshall at Louisiana Tech We’ve been a big believer in the Thundering Herd this year, as Doc Holliday continues to be one of the best coaches in the college ranks. That said, this team is really being priced high here against a quality Bulldogs squad. Over the last decade the Herd is only 11-19-2 ATS as a road favorite, and haven’t posted a winning mark in that regard since 2015. Tech is coming in off a ten win season in 2019, and Skip Holtz has a history of rewarding backers in the underdog role. The Bulldogs struggled against UTEP last week, but this Miners team is much better than any other squad Dana Dimel has coached in El Paso. Since 2014 Louisiana Tech is 28-8 straight up at home. Throw in the fact that this team was embarrassed by Marshall last year 31-10, and we have a terrific revenge situation. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
475 Minnesota at Seattle The Vikings defense has been a sieve this year, but the Seahawks have been just as bad. Minnesota ranks 31st in defensive passing yards per play, but they have stopped the run at the tenth best rate in the league. Seattle also excels in stopping the run, but ranks 28th defending the pass. The Seahawks are first in offensive passing yards per play, and 11th in rushing yards per play. Minnesota has been even more balanced offensively at 5th and 3rd respectively. Other than New Orleans the Seahawks suffer the loss of home field advantage more than any other team without all fans. Throw in the fact that Seattle tends to play to the competition, and we find value on the Vikings catching this key number. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars +3 v. Bengals | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -100 | 144 h 49 m | Show |
257 Jacksonville at Cincinnati Money is coming in on the host here so we should be able to get a better number later in the week. Cincinnati has been a team that finds a way to cover as an underdog, with 3-0 or 2-0-1 ATS on the season. But now the Bengals are being installed as a favorite, and we want nothing to do with this club laying points. The public perception is that this club is a hard trying team with a future star at quarterback. And that’s true, but this offensive line is currently terrible. With 32 teams in the league the Bengals rank 31st in rushing yards per play and 31st in passing yards per play. Cincinnati is 29th in sacks per pass attempt. While we love the future of Burrow, he just doesn’t have enough protection to lift up this ailing offense. Nobody expected anything from this Jacksonville team coming into the season. But this is a team that has outgained the opposition each of the last two weeks, and the opening week win over Indianapolis is looking even more impressive now. With extra time to prepare after losing to the Dolphins last Thursday, we will look for a big bounce back from the visitor. The Jags are 7th in rushing yards per play while the Bengals defense ranks 26th in stepping the run. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -103 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
465 Houston at Pittsburgh Texans enter this contest after playing the toughest schedule in the history of the NFL the past two weeks. Kansas City and Baltimore are at least 3 points better than any other team in the league. Despite being outscored 67 to 36 in those contests, there are some positives for Houston. The Texans lost the turnover battles in both games, -3 on the season. That is likely to regress when facing lower rated opposition. When looking at the all important yards per play category, Houston is holding its own. Baltimore beat Houston 6.7 YPP to 5.7 YPP. But the Texans beat the Chiefs 6.7 YPP to 5.6 YPP. Teams that start the season 0-2 lose favor in the minds of the bettors, we take advantage of that here. As opposed to the schedule Houston played, Pittsburgh faced two of the worst teams in the league, the Giants and Broncos. Despite having the better talent the Steelers struggled to put away the opposition, barely beating the Broncos with a back up quarterback last week. With home field advantage being worth less than ever, the Texans are a live dog here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-20-20 | Vikings v. Colts -3 | Top | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 144 h 47 m | Show |
274 Minnesota at Indianapolis Heading into the opening week this is one game we had circled and we bet the lookahead line. Despite the Colts losing to the lowly Jags we like this game even better now. We graded the Colts five points higher than the Vikings comming into the season, and that may be a bit conservative. The Colts simply dominated Jacksonville Sunday in just about every category you look at, except turnovers. Indy was -2 in the turnover department despite winning yardage by 204. Keep in mind the Colts never punted in the entire game. Minnesota lost by nine points at home to a team expected to regress badly this year. The Vikings lost the yardage battle by 140. We know this line is going to rise and getting it on the right side of three is a bonus. Wouldn't surprise if we saw the same type of line movement which led to our early release last week. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
07 Wake Forest at North Carolina State Wake fared about as well as expected by facing Clemson out of the gate. This is a team really dropping down in opposition, with a game already under its belt. The Demon Deacons are running one of the fastest offenses in college football. We expect this team to have a great deal of success against a team not used to that type of pace. NC State has been dealing with Covid 19, so its been tough getting players on the field together. In what we expect to be a high scoring game we will back the visitor. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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