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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -104 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
102 Cincinnati at Cleveland Mixed thoughts surrounding the debut of Joe Burrow. He only had a passer rating of 54 and the offensive line continued to have problems. He didn’t have a single August practice that had his full slate of receivers healthy. Those timing issues are especially needed when traveling on a short week where there is no time to work out the problems. The Browns played the Ravens much closer than the final score, but mistakes plagued the team all afternoon. Cleveland lost the yardage battle 377-306, but really struggled in key downs going 3 of 15 on third and fourth, while the Ravens went 6 of 11. The Browns also lost the turnover battle 3 to 1. So while the Bengals looked competitive in the opener, the Browns were much better than the final score. This Cleveland team is loaded, and with a chip on its shoulder we expect the best of the Browns here. Year after year the home team in these Thursday games have dominated. With what happed last week we really like Cleveland here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 143 h 45 m | Show |
464 Philadelphia at Washington Can’t trust the Eagles in the road favorite role. Week one divisional dogs are on a 21-5-1 run, and teams not making the playoffs the previous season have been golden when up against a playoff participant. Washington has quality players, it’s been the organization that has been the drawback. With the promise to change the name we feel the management is now starting to join the 21st century. The Eagles have major injuries coming into this game with Jeffrey, Wentz, Reagor and Sanders being banged up. The defense has many question marks as well with Avery, Maddox, Effs, Hargrave and Barnett not being 100%. Touch to lay this type of number on the road to a team very familiar. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-13-20 | Colts -8 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 27 m | Show |
467 Indianapolis at Jacksonville This Colts team is simply loaded. It’s likely the best offensive line in the NFL. Rivers has never had protection like he will have this season. This is going to be an explosive offense and the defense is likely top ten as well. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league, and has already made moves to get its franchise quarterback of the future. The Jags normally have very little home advantage, so that likely won’t change much if not at all this season. Getting this one out now as we expect this line to rise. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -22.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show |
396 Syracuse at North Carolina Don’t think much of this Syracuse team who has won five or less games 5 of the last 6 years. After a breakout 2018 in which the Orangemen won ten games, the team dropped to a 5-7 record last year. The players sat out practices because of the COVID, and really look like a team just going through the motions right now. This was an experienced team a year ago, no so in 2020. They hired a new defensive coordinator who is installing a 3-3-5 defense. Tough to make those type of changes and have to face an NFL caliber quarterback right out of the gate. North Carolina is a team on the rise under second year coach Mack Brown. I had originally hated the signing as I felt the game had passed him by. I’m big enough to admit my mistakes, and that was a big one. As the Tar Heels went from winning two games in 2018 to seven last year. QB Sam Howell was dominant last year and really put his name out there for those looking from the next level. North Carolina finished the year scoring 41 and 56 points, we expect a huge offensive season from this team. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
747 Denver and Utah The Jazz have been a major surprise thus far especially considering the lack of depth. But it’s one thing to be an underdog. It’s something totally different to be the team with the 2-1 series lead and now be a solid favorite. Last meeting the series was tied and Utah went off as a single digit favorite. Now Denver has its back to the wall and is getting more points? Just can’t see how anything but that single game outcome has moved this line two full points. Look for the Nuggets best effort tonight. PLAY DENVER |
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03-06-20 | Boise State +9 v. San Diego State | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
883 Boise State & San Diego State in Vegas The Aztecs are 18 of 43 from deep in the two meetings with the Broncos. This against a Boise State defense that ranks 18th in the country defending the perimeter. While the two losses were by 18 and 17 points, the Broncos are closer in talent than what those scores represented. Boise is 11th in the nation in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. That’s big against this San Diego State team. The Broncos have struggled defending down low for most of the year, yet held UNLV to 9 of 30 shooting last night from 2 point range. The Aztecs have clearly struggled on the offensive glass the last two months, so it’s likely one an done offensively. Unless this team remains hot from the outside we can’t see how this game isn’t close. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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02-28-20 | Cavs +12.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
533 Cleveland at New Orleans Cavaliers are having success since changing coaches as the team is learning to play for each other. It’s a squad playing with confidence right now that wasn’t happening earlier in the season. The Pelicans aren’t used to being a sizable favorite, as this is just the second time all season New Orleans has laid double digits. This is an LA Lakers sandwich for the team that lost Davis before the season. Have to feel this will be a letdown spot for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-26-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +8 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
502 Philadelphia at Cleveland The Sixers are treading water right now with a 13-12 record as of late. This is a club that has been great at home but struggles on the road. Philadelphia is just 2-12 straight up as of late on the road. The two victories were at New York by 3 and Brooklyn by 6. Philadelphia is in the midst of playing 10 straight games in different cities. Not playing back to back at home until mid-March. Cleveland has won 3 of its last 4 contests with the only loss coming at Miami, in the second game of a back to back situation. The way the Cavs are built right now it has one of the deepest and talented front courts in the league. A great matchup here against Embiid, with Simmons still on the sideline. Gotta fade the Sixers here as this team struggles mightily on the road. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
873 Louisville at Florida State The Cardinals are looking to avenge a 78-65 home loss earlier in the season. That was the only home loss this year. In that game the Seminoles dominated in the paint shooting 21-35 from 2 point range, while the Cardinals shot 16 of 43. That’s very unusual for this club that actually ranks 29th in defending inside the perimeter. Florida State hasn’t lost here all season, but we rate Louisville as the better team. We will take the points here with the avenging Cardinals. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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02-22-20 | Cal-Riverside v. Cal Poly +3.5 | Top | 61-49 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
786 Cal Riverside at Cal Poly The Highlanders haven’t won a road game since January 9th. This team has lost five straight games and 8 of 10 overall. During this five game run the offense has produced a high of 59 points in regulation. The last time these two met the Highlanders won 97-64, giving the Mustangs their worst loss of the season. I’m sure this team has this game circled, especially with three likely losses to end the season. Simply don’t trust Cal Riverside to lay points on the road. PLAY CAL POLY |
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02-19-20 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Alabama | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
803 Texas A&M at Alabama Too many points to give this Aggies team who are 3-3 SU on the road this season. A&M has no 3 point game whatsoever ranking 351st in the nation. But 3 point defense is a strength for the Tide, which will likely be wasted in this matchup. The visitor ranks 29th in defensive turnover rate and is a solid offensive rebounding squad. It does defend well from long distance. Alabama just got revenge on LSU on Saturday and have tough games at Mississippi and Mississippi State on deck. Before that 88-82 victory over the Tigers, the team played back to back overtime games against Auburn and Georgia. And played a one point game against Tennessee and a four point contest with Arkansas. So this is clearly a flat spot on the schedule for the host. PLAY TEXAS A&M |
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02-07-20 | Blazers v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
526 Portland at Utah The Blazers are playing great ball right now winning 5 of 6 including a 124-107 home win over these Jazz. But Portland is playing its second game of a back to back and third game in four days. To make matters worse they played the first game in altitude at Denver, flew home to host the Spurs, and now play unrested in altitude again. The Blazers are just 2-6 ATS playing in Utah. Unlike the Blazers the Jazz are really struggling right now having lost five straight games, including two straight on this normally strong home court. Utah is well rested having played just once in the past five days. The Jazz are the better team desperate for a win while Portland is in a terrible scheduling situation. There is a reason why this line seems high, because it should be even higher. PLAY UTAH |
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02-06-20 | 76ers v. Bucks -9 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
506 Philadelphia at Milwaukee The Sixers will be shorthanded tonight as the trade assets will be out of the lineup. In the only other meeting this season Philadelphia pounded the Bucks 121-109 on Christmas Day. Milwaukee was a virtual no show in that nationally televised game. So we expect the Bucks to have this game circled. This is the only game in a three game span for the host, while Philadelphia hosts Memphis tomorrow. If the Sixers fall behind early with this limited bench, look for Philadelphia to raise the white flag late. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-04-20 | Xavier v. DePaul -1 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
632 Xavier at DePaul The Musketeers had been cruising to an 11-2 record before Big East play. Now with the tougher schedule Xavier has dropped 5 of its last 7. The Saturday win at Seton Hall was just the second straight up road win of the season. While Xavier’s defense has traveled well this team ranks 289th in the nation in three point accuracy. That and a 319th ranked free throw percentage will likely come in to play here. Very similar to Xavier, DePaul feasted on non-conference competition, but sits at 1-8 in Big East play. But only two of those defeats came by double digits. This is a team on a four game losing streak that has road trips to Georgetown and Creighton on deck. This is a must win game for the host, and we expect its best effort of the conference season. PLAY DEPAUL |
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02-03-20 | North Carolina +9.5 v. Florida State | Top | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
861 North Carolina at Florida State Now that the Tar Heels are getting healthy we want to look to back North Carolina in these type of situations. While the Tar Heels have gotten better, the wins haven’t come around. Two overtime losses and a one point loss to Boston College last time out keep this team out of the press. But that gives us plenty of value here against a #5 rated team we have ranked 20th. While Florida State is 9-3 SU against top 100 opposition, wins have come by margins of 3, 3, 4 and 1 point. This is a team that is getting favorable bounces going 7-2 in close games. The Tar Heels have the talent to take this to the wire. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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02-01-20 | Wolves v. Clippers -9 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
516 Minnesota at LA Clippers The Timberwolves are on a ten game losing streak with 5 of the last 6 losses coming at home. This is a team that started the season well but has had separate 10 and 11 game losing streaks since December. Minnesota is 1-15 SU on the season vs top 10 opponents. The Clippers are coming off an embarrassing showing in a 21 point home loss to the Kings. After the game the players were very testy with the media, so we would expect a solid showing. LA is also 22-7 ATS off a SU loss. Lay it! PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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01-29-20 | Baylor -3.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 67-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
847 Baylor at Iowa State Surprised this number is available considering how dominant the Bears have been on the road. Undefeated on true road courts this season, and no lookahead with TCU at home on Saturday. Baylor beat Iowa State at home 68-55 just two weeks ago. The Bears rank 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Baylor is dominant on the offensive boards at 5th in the country. Iowa State has already lost three times at home this season, including a defeat to Florida A&M. This squad has also lost 6 of 8 overall with the wins coming against the Oklahoma schools. While the offense is 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency, the defense ranks 140th. The Cyclones are 291st keeping the opposition off the offensive glass. That is the telling stat here as the Bears should dominate down low offensively. This is a cheap number. PLAY BAYLOR |
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01-24-20 | St. Peter's v. Rider -6 | Top | 66-70 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
862 St Peters at Rider The Peacocks have dropped 3 of 4 as of late but blew out Quinnipiac on the road last Saturday. Now 3-6 SU on the road this season. Saint Peter’s is an excellent offensive rebounding team ranking 8th in the country. But very weak offensively at 331st in effective field goal percentage, and bad holding onto the ball at 348th. The Broncs of Rider have lost 6 of 8 and sit at 3-4 in conference. This looks like a must win game for the host. Rider is 4-1 SU at home this year with the lone loss being the last time it played at Alumni Gymnasium. While St Peter’s is great in offensive rebounding, that plays directly into what Rider does best, hit the glass. The Broncs are 60th in offensive rebounding, and 8th in the country keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass. Rider is also extremely good getting to the line and keeping opponents from getting to the strike. We look for Rider to take advantage of a solid home court here and get back in the win column. PLAY RIDER |
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01-22-20 | Georgetown v. Xavier -4 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
782 Georgetown at Xavier Hoyas have dropped 4 of 6 lately, along with three straight on the road. Georgetown ranks 288th defending the three, which is always a concern on the road. At 1-4 in conference and off three straight losses, you know you will get a full effort from the host. Really like this defense which ranks 38th defending the three, and 68th against 2 point attempts. We expect this Xavier defense to clamp down and get this team back in the win column. PLAY XAVIER |
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01-20-20 | Lakers -2 v. Celtics | Top | 107-139 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
519 LA Lakers at Boston Lakers enter play having won 10 of 11. Only loss was a one point defeat at the hands of the Magic. LA is rested having only played once the past four days. The Celtics have not only lost 6 of 8, but have held the majority lead in 3 of those contests. On the season Boston has lead for the majority of games 25 times, so you can tell this team is struggling right now. PLAY LA LAKERS |
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01-20-20 | Bulls v. Bucks -14.5 | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
510 Chicago at Milwaukee The Bulls have lost all three meetings with the Bucks this season. And it makes all the sense in the world. Chicago is a young team that finds was to lose, while the Bucks find ways to win. We like the talent on this Chicago roster, but until it plays much more consistently it’s hard to back. Milwaukee has not only won its last six games, but have held an average of a double digit lead in five straight. And still the coaching staff complained about its lack of discipline in giving away big leads. That won’t be the case here, especially with the next three days off. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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01-18-20 | Utah +7 v. Arizona State | Top | 64-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
807 Utah at Arizona The Utes have lost 4 of its last 5 games. But those contests were against San Diego State, Oregon, Colorado and Arizona, all top 20 programs. Now the Utes step down in class to take on an Arizona State team we rank 94th in the nation. Utah is 36th in the country in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 4th in defensive free throw rating. This is a quality team despite the overall record. Arizona State has yet to beat a team in the top 55, so we can’t see this team pulling away from Utah. Especially considering its the 297th shooting 3 point percentage unit. PLAY UTAH |
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01-18-20 | Indiana v. Nebraska +6.5 | Top | 82-74 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 1 m | Show |
770 Indiana at Nebraska The Hoosiers have dropped 3 of its last 5 and sit at 3-3 in league play. Indiana is also winless on the road this season dropping all three contests. This club is 307th in the country in 3 point shooting, which makes it tough to lay a number with on the road. Nebraska is 7th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, so the Hoosiers will not get many easy baskets. At 2-4 in conference this is a must win game for the Huskers with trips to Wisconsin and Rutgers on deck. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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01-18-20 | Nebraska-Omaha -4.5 v. Denver | Top | 76-91 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
677 Nebraska Omaha at Denver Omaha is a team that lives and dies by the perimeter. Ranking 68th in 3 point shooting and 301st in defending the three. This club is 3-1 in conference play with the lone loss coming last time out at South Dakota, a 91-81 defeat. While many will look at the 1-8 SU record on the road. A closer look sees that this team has been extremely tested playing at Wichita State, Dayton, St Mary’s and Arizona. Denver at 4-15 is a bad basketball team. Especially on the offensive end of the court. Ranking 339th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 350th in offensive rebounding percentage. This is a get right game for the visitor. PLAY NEBRASKA OMAHA |
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01-18-20 | Detroit v. Green Bay -6 | Top | 80-83 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
620 Detroit at Green Bay The Titans have just one road victory on the season. That win came on Thursday as Detroit beat Milwaukee 90-84. This is a club that ranks badly in just about every individual category. Including 312th in defensive adjusted efficiency and 320th in offensive effective field goal percentage. Green Bay doesn’t turn the ball over, ranking 13th in the nation. It’s also a very good shooting team at 46th in 3 point accuracy. We look for the Phoenix to use their solid free throw shooting to extend a second half lead. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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01-17-20 | Furman -3 v. Wofford | Top | 52-66 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
859 Furman at Wofford Big fan of this Furman offense which ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage. It’s also a team that forces turnovers but doesn’t turn the ball over themselves. This club dominates in the paint ranking 5th in the nation in 2 point shooting percentage. Wofford has a solid home court advantage, but ranks 300th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Going up against this Furman offense won’t be easy. The host also struggles to get to the line ranking 318th, so late game foul shots may not be there in a close game. PLAY FURMAN |
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01-16-20 | Southern Illinois +10 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 48-64 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
637 Southern Illinois at Loyola Chicago The visitor has really struggled on the road this season, but that said this line is extremely high. Coming off a blowout loss at Bradley, we find great value on the underdog here. At 7-2 SU at home and coming off a 34 point domination of Evansville, this line is extremely inflated. Value play on the dog here. PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS |
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01-15-20 | Pistons v. Celtics -10 | Top | 116-103 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
504 Detroit at Boston Want no part of the Pistons right now who have dropped 12 of 15 ATS as of late. The team has only held the majority lead against the weaklings of Washington, Golden State and Cleveland. Boston has righted the ship with back to back solid wins, and have a trip to Milwaukee on deck. That may normally mean a lookahead, but we like this deep Boston squad. PLAY BOSTON |
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01-14-20 | DePaul +9.5 v. Villanova | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
633 DePaul at Villanova The Blue Demons have started conference play 0-3. But have solid wins over Iowa, Minnesota and Texas Tech on the season. Defense travels and this Dave Leitao team is highly ranked in that regard. Villanove is 12-3 and looks solid once again, but this club doesn’t win by margins. Overall 4 of the last 5 wins have come by margins of 5, 6, 1 and 8 points. DePaul has the ability to slow down this Wildcat offense. PLAY DEPAUL |
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01-12-20 | Arizona v. Oregon State +4.5 | Top | 65-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
848 Arizona at Oregon State The Wildcats started the year impressively with 9 straight victories, including wins over Illinois and New Mexico State. But Arizona has struggled as of late dropping 4 of its last 6 games. They are just 2-4 against top 100 opposition. This club is also winless on the road after dropping an overtime decision at Oregon on Thursday. Oregon State has one home loss this season, last time out against Arizona State. With a 1-2 conference record and a trip to Washington on deck, this is a must have game for the host. The Beavers are a terrific offensive team that ranks 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. We look for the host to pull the upset. PLAY OREGON STATE |
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01-11-20 | Kansas State +5 v. Texas | Top | 50-64 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
761 Kansas State at Texas This Kansas State defense travels. Ranking 40th in adjusted Efficiency, and 15th in defensive turnover percentage. This is a winless team in conference action. We just can’t trust Texas in the roll of a favorite. Especially in late game situations. The Longhorns are 314th in the country in free throw shooting, and 342nd drawing fouls. Texas is 1-4 straight up against top 100 opposition. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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01-11-20 | Chicago State v. UT-Rio Grande Valley -19 | Top | 63-87 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
784 Chicago State at UT Rio Grande Valley When you are a child your parents always tell you, if you can’t say something good about someone, don’t say anything. Well, Chicago state is 48th in the country in getting to the line and 71st in free throw percentage. So there you go. Grand Valley is 5-10 on the season and are a large favorite here. But this club has played nine teams rated in the top 200 in the country. The host has only lost once on this floor all season. While the records are somewhat similar, the talent advantage is sizable. PLAY UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY |
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01-11-20 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia -4.5 | Top | 54-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
744 Texas Tech at West Virginia The Red Raiders have just two wins all season against top 100 opposition. They are also winless on the road this year as this is only the second true road game of the season for Texas Tech. West Virginia is undefeated at home with every game being decided by 5 points or more. This is also the first home game for the Mountaineers on four weeks, so we should get a really fired up crowd. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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01-11-20 | Oakland -3 v. Cleveland State | Top | 68-55 | Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show |
659 Oakland at Cleveland State Oakland has dropped 7 of 8 but really step down in class against the Vikings. It beat a similar Detroit team by 9 in late December. Cleveland State is 3-1 in conference but have feasted on the other bottom tier teams in the league. Cleveland State is just 4-3 at home and ranks in the 330th range in all offensive categories. PLAY OAKLAND |
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01-11-20 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia State -12 | Top | 62-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
640 UL Monroe at Georgia State Monroe has been terrible on the road with an 0-6 mark. The closest contest was a six point loss at Texas A&M. This squad struggles turning the ball over ranking 311th in the country. ULM is a good shooting team fro the perimeter but that’s something that hasn’t helped them on the road. Georgia State is not only great from 3 point range at 12th in the nation, but are 24th in defending from the perimeter. On an undefeated home court we look for a blowout. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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01-11-20 | DePaul v. St. John's -3 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
604 DePaul at St Johns DePaul has the better record, but the host is the better team. The Blue Demons feasted on questionable competition in the non-conference season. Mike Anderson’s squad specializes in taking care of the ball. Ranking 27th in not turning the ball over, and 22nd in forcing turnovers. This is also a team in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Starting the conference season at 0-3 this becomes a very important game for the host. Let’s lay the small number with St Johns. PLAY ST JOHNS |
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01-10-20 | Wright State -10 v. IUPU-Indianapolis | Top | 84-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
833 Wright State at IUPUI Wright State takes good care of the ball and is a solid offensive rebounding team. This club is unedited in true road games this season. The host has really struggled this year when stepping up in class. Against top 11 opposition this team has lost to Butler by 33, Bradley by 34, Loyola Chicago by 23 and Ball State by 48. PLAY WRIGHT STATE |
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01-07-20 | Baylor v. Texas Tech -3 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
654 Baylor at Texas Tech The Bears are 11-1 on the season and have run off 10 straight winners. But it’s time to really see what Baylor is made of with back to back games against Texas Tech and Kansas. This is also the first true road game of the season for the Bears. The Red Raiders dropped three in a row earlier, with two coming in overtime. But this club gets better as the season goes on and we love the Texas Tech coaching staff. After already playing three top 30 teams, we expect the Red Raiders to be primed. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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01-06-20 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 64-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
854 UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina Simply can’t trust Monroe to score enough away from home. On the season this team has produced 57, 59, 45 and 36 points away from home. Too many turnovers and a poor offensive efficiency has led to this 6-7 overall record. Coastal ranks 10th in the country in 3 point percentage and is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Let’s lay it with the host. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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01-04-20 | Pacers -7 v. Hawks | Top | 111-116 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
509 Indiana at Atlanta Pacers have dropped 3 of 4 as of late but trips to Atlanta and Charlotte should get this team right. Indiana is rested while Atlanta played yesterday in Boston. The Hawks have only covered once in a back to back situation this year, with more results ending in blowouts. With Collins expected out of the lineup for Atlanta tonight, we will back the Pacers to get back on track. PLAY INDIANA |
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12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show |
118 Pittsburgh at Baltimore If these two teams were both playing its starters we would have made the Ravens likely a nine point favorite. But yet because of the must win factor the Steelers are a two point favorite. That’s a conservative 11 point swing because the Ravens are resting some starters. That’s a huge overreaction. Pittsburgh is playing with a third string quarterback that has really struggled as of late. Baltimore on the other hand has a backup veteran behind center, in an offense that should let him play to his best abilities. This is a heated rivalry and you know the Ravens players would love to knock the Steelers out of an playoff possibilities. It’s also a huge coaching mismatch in favor of the home underdog. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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12-23-19 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 145-115 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
514 San Antonio at Memphis Wrong team favored in our opinion as the Spurs have struggled on the road all season. Both teams are playing its third game in four days. Memphis already won in San Antonio earlier in the season. Grizzlies have finished with the average lead in 5 of 7 games overall. Memphis is playing the much better ball. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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12-21-19 | Hawks v. Nets -7 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
562 Atlanta at Brooklyn The Hawks played a tough game against the Jazz on Thursday in a 111-106 loss. But that has been the exception for Atlanta as of late as this team simply doesn’t have the talent to compete on an everyday basis in this league. The Nets dominated the Spurs for three quarters on Thursday, only to fall apart late. The average lead in that game was Brooklyn by 3.7 points. With a day off and not another game until next Thursday we expect the Nets to take out some frustrations tonight. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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12-20-19 | Wizards v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
544 Washington at Toronto Surprised by the low line here as we have Toronto rated much higher than the Wizards. While Washington has played well on the road, Toronto has dominated at home. The rest in this game is equal, so that isn’t a factor. This line suggests on a neutral court Toronto would be only a 2 1/2 point favorite. That’s simply not correct. We lay the bargain price in this one as we have the Raptors winning by 10. PLAY TORONTO |
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12-14-19 | Nets +7.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
551 Brooklyn at Toronto The Nets are playing terrific ball right now, even better than the 8-3 record as of late. This is a team that has held the lead in the majority of 10 of those 11 games. The Nets are also well rested having played just once in the past five days. The Raptors are off that big showdown with the Clippers and Leonard. It’s also rested having the last two days off. But Toronto has dropped 4 of 5 as of late as the team is now starting to play towards its talent level. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors -1 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
504 Houston at Toronto Very happy to lay this small number at home with the Raptors. Houston has already lost on the road to Brooklyn, Miami, Denver and the Clippers. The only quality road win was at Minnesota. Coming off an overtime loss at San Antonio, this team hasn’t proven itself away from home this season. Toronto is 8-2 ATS at home, off an overtime home loss to Miami last time out. Prior to that defeat the Raptors had won seven straight games. This is a cheap number to lay for Toronto. PLAY TORONTO |
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3 | Top | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
466 NY Jets at Cincinnati From a game grade standpoint the Bengals should be very slight favorites here. The Jets are feeling fat and happy with a three game winning streak and a blowout of the Oakland Raiders. But with winless Cincinnati and the Dolphins on deck, excuse us if we don’t trust New York here. Cincinnati has been competitive the past two weeks with losses by 6 and 7 points. With the remaining schedule the best chance for a win after today will be at Miami in week 16. Cincinnati is 0-6 on the season in games decided by one possession. These teams are much closer in talent than the records suggest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-30-19 | Ohio State -8 v. Michigan | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
367 Ohio State at Michigan Surprised by the money coming in on the host. Just a week ago the look ahead number in this contest was 13 1/2. Ohio State beat Penn State by 11 points and 190 yards despite a -2 turnover disadvantage. Now the line is about five points shorter. Neither team will have much success running the football, as both allow less than 3 yards per carry. Which brings us to the passing game where the Buckeyes have a huge edge. Fields has a 33 to 1 td to int ratio and a 190.3 passer rating. Patterson is 21 to 5 with a 149.6 passer rating. From an average game score rating Ohio State is 123.8 and Michigan is 106.4. Only once all season have the Wolverines reached the average Buckeye game score, and that was in the 45-14 victory over Notre Dame. In order to be competitive here the Wolverines would likely have to play its best game of the season, against a program that has dominated them. We don’t see that happening as we expect Ohio State to win going away. PLAY OHIO STATE |
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11-29-19 | Wizards +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
579 Washington at LA Lakers The high scoring Wizards look to add to its success on the road trip after outscoring the Suns on Wednesday. While the record isn’t overly impressive, the Wizards have won 3 of 5 overall heading into this contest. The Lakers are coming in off an emotional come from behind win in New Orleans. It was a positive homecoming for Anthony Davis. Now the team has a fun get out and run game with the Wizards before hosting the red hot Mavericks on Sunday. This is a major sandwich spot for the host with Dallas, Denver and Utah up next. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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11-29-19 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 45 m | Show |
321 Texas Tech at Texas Final game of the season for the Red Raiders who won’t be going bowling. Despite losing five of its six games down the stretch, Texas Tech has scored the same amount of points as it allowed. The losses came by margins of 3, 2, 3, 10 and 3 points. The Red Raiders on the season are 0-4 in one score games. This is a one-sided rivalry and Texas Tech will treat this like its bowl game. The Longhorns have already qualified for a bowl with six wins. But this has to be looked at as a disappointing season in Austin. A win over Texas Tech won’t change that. Hard to see this team getting up for this contest after being non-competitive last week against Baylor. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 37 m | Show |
272 Green Bay at San Francisco This number is really cheap based on the season to date outputs of both these squads. Looking at average game scores the Packers are 84.4 while the 49ers are 88.4. That would make San Francisco a significant favorite on a neutral. Add in home field advantage and we clearly see this line should be much closer to a 6. This is the third road game in four contests for the Packers, but Green Bay was off a bye week. San Francisco on the other hand will be at home for the third straight week. The next two games for the Niners are really tough with road games at Baltimore and New Orleans. While this is not a must win game for the host, it’s about as important as a game could be considering the remainder of the San Francisco schedule. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-23-19 | Spurs v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
556 San Antonio at New York The Spurs have dropped eight straight games and have the Lakers on deck. Naturally this is the game San Antonio needs to have. But this isn’t your typical Spurs squad we are so used to seeing under Pops. The defense simply isn’t there right now, as every opponent the Spurs have played this season has reached triple figures. The Knicks have held the lead the majority of the game only five times this season, but it’s happened in each of the last four games. This is a team that is getting better and better each time out, but is staying under the national radar. Wrong team favored based on the way these teams are playing right now. PLAY NEW YORK |
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | Top | 39-14 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 47 m | Show |
122 Michigan at Indiana The Wolverines have finally put it all together and are playing like many thought this team would before the season. Winning 6 of 7 including a blow out victory over Notre Dame. But this is a terrible sandwich spot after knocking off Michigan State and having Ohio State on deck. Michigan has owned Indiana in football for decades, as this sets up as a huge letdown situation. Indiana hasn’t beaten Michigan, but the last four years have been very competitive. The Hoosiers have cashed each of those games by a combined 38 1/2 points. This is the best Indiana football team in a really long time. It’s the first team that is going to finish with a winning record since 2007. The Hoosiers are undefeated at home with the only losses on the road at Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State. This one goes down to the wire. PLAY INDIANA |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 32 m | Show |
470 New England at Philadelphia Many will want to back the Patriots off a loss followed by a bye week. Belichick has been solid off losses in his career, but this isn’t the same New England team that we have seen in the past. Besides the last three seasons the Pats are 0-3 ATS off the bye week, including a 1-2 SU record. The Pats have a solid lead in the division and play the next two games against non-conference foes. Those are the lowest priority games on the schedule. The Pats are permitting 4.7 ypc on the season, against a schedule that is extremely weak. Only Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Baltimore have winning records. New England is +17 turnovers on the year, the major reason why this team has a gaudy record. Philadelphia is getting healthier, and with the divisional race with the Cowboys, this game is much more important for the host. The Eagles should be able to run all over this Pats defense. And coming off a bye we know Philadelphia has had this game circled. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-16-19 | Texas v. Iowa State -6.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -112 | 125 h 4 m | Show |
378 Texas at Iowa State Triple revenge game for the Cyclones who took Oklahoma to the wire last week in a confidence building loss. With only Kansas on deck we look for this Iowa State team to win going away. This club has produced game scores of 100 or higher in 7 of its last 8 games. Much more impressive than its 5-4 record on the season. After three of four weeks on the road it will be nice to get back home here. As opposed to Iowa State, Texas has produced a game score of 100+ just once the past six games. That was last week hosting Kansas State. With a 6-3 record many would assume this line to be too high, but we firmly disagree. Texas has not been impressive this season as we expected, but have been very fortunate to fall on the right side of coin flip games. The Longhorns are 3-0 in games decided by six points or less. Iowa State on the other hand is 1-3 in games of six points or less. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-15-19 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +8 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
524 Utah at Memphis The Jazz have struggled on the road thus far with a 1-4 ATS mark. Off four straight victories the team may enter here a bit satisfied with its recent performance. The Grizzlies host the Jazz for the first of a four game home stand. After wins at San Antonio and Charlotte this team should have solid momentum for this home battle. Our numbers show this line to be too high. We step in and take the host. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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11-14-19 | Nets +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
511 Brooklyn at Denver Nets are well rested having not played a back to back since November 1st and 2nd. This is the 4th of 5 on this road trip, but it should be well acclimated to the atmosphere after playing at Utah on Tuesday. While the Nuggets are 7-3 on the season, they have been quite fortunate. We have them at a deserved 5-5 as they have only had an average lead this season of 0.15 points per game. That despite being favored in all ten games this season. The Nuggets are the most overrated team in the league based on how it has played this season. We take advantage of that tonight with an inflated line. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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11-14-19 | Heat v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
502 Miami at Cleveland We've been impressed by the start the Miami Heat have gotten off to. This team looks like a legit contender for a mid-tier playoff position. That said, this line is simply too high based on the way these two teams have been playing. Cleveland is 4-6 on the season which is enough of a surprise, but the team is actually better than that. On the year the Cavaliers have held a lead for more time than the opposition. That despite playing 6 of 10 games on the road, and being an underdog in all 10 games! This line is all based on reputation and preseason expectations. We expect the Cavs to win this outright. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-13-19 | 76ers v. Magic -1 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
578 Philadelphia at Orlando Despite a 7-3 record the 76ers are not playing up to its talent level. Our numbers show the team has been very fortunate and should have a 5-5 record. This team is only 1.7 points per game better than the schedule of teams it has faced. Now in the second game of a back to back and third in four days, their best players will likely be sitting. As opposed to the visitor the Magic are playing better than its record. Orlando is 3-7 on the year but our numbers show this team is only 0.5 points worse than the schedule it has played. And that schedule has featured Toronto, Milwaukee, Denver, Dallas and Indiana. With two days off since the last time the Magic took the court, Orlando has a huge scheduling advantage tonight. PLAY ORLANDO |
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11-11-19 | Raptors v. Clippers -10.5 | Top | 88-98 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
560 Toronto at LA Clippers Short handed Raptors pulled off an impressive upset of the Lakers last night. But in doing so VanFleet played 38 minutes and Siakam 42. Now playing back to back against a Clippers team that has had the past three days off. LA doesn’t play again until Wednesday, so there will be no load limits for the Clippers star. The number is high for a reason, but not high enough as we expect the Raptors to fade in the second half. PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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11-10-19 | Hornets v. 76ers -13.5 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
538 Charlotte at Philadelphia The Hornets have been very fortunate with a 4-5 record. Our numbers show it deserves a 2-7 mark. The only two games it should have won were against the Bulls and Kings, two teams who started the year poorly. This is the only road game in a five game stretch for the Hornets. The 76ers return home from a bad 1-3 road trip, with three straight losses entering this contest. Philadelphia doesn’t play again until Tuesday against the lowly Cavaliers. We expect the host to take out some frustrations here on the unrested Hornets. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-10-19 | Bills +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 31 m | Show |
253 Buffalo at Cleveland The Buffalo Bills have played one game away from home in the past seven weeks, a road game at Tennessee. The Bills have lowly Miami on deck, a team coming off its first and possibly only win of the season. Most teams rise up after a week of off field controversy, but not the Browns. This team is so dysfunctional it has raised the stakes to a whole new level. We want no part of this club right now, and are surprised the team has been made the favorite here. To make matters worse the Browns have a short week ahead before clashing with hated rival Pittsburgh on Thursday. Wrong team favored in this one. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-09-19 | San Jose State +8 v. Hawaii | Top | 40-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
199 San Jose State at Hawaii The Spartan passing game has produced 400 or more yards in 3 of its last 5 games. Only the defense of San Diego State held the Spartans to less than 310 yards during this streak. Hawaii hasn’t faced many good passing attacks this season. And the Warriors have had a very hard time with turnovers, with a -12 margin on the year. San Diego State is at +12 on the season, and once again likely to win the turnover battle here. Give us a team likely to win turnovers, that is a live dog in the passing game, and we are catching more than a touchdown. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-09-19 | Warriors +12 v. Thunder | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
527 Golden State at Oklahoma City Nobody is going to want anything to do with these short handed Warriors after an overtime loss. But that gives us plenty of value here. Golden State played ten players yesterday, all early double digit minutes. And for the third time in four games the Warriors held the lead for a majority of the game. This is a team that is much better than the record shows, and we can take advantage of that with increased lines. Oklahoma City doesn’t run like they used to, which keep scoring down and gives underdogs a better chance to stay in the game. Coming off its worst defensive performance of the season, we expect the pace to be slower than normal. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
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11-02-19 | Buffalo v. Eastern Michigan -1 | Top | 43-14 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 20 m | Show |
336 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan The Bulls have struggled on the road this year with the only victory coming at Akron 21-0, what could be the worst team in the FBS. The last two games Buffalo has a +7 turnover margin but only outgained the opposition by a combined 89 yards. So while the final scores looked impressive, a great deal of luck was included. Buffalo is now 6-18-1 as a conference road underdog the last decade plus. Eastern Michigan has only played at home three times this season. This is the only home game for the Eagles in a four week span. Keep in mind the last time on this field the Eagles beat Western Michigan, the clear best team in the conference 34-27, outgaining the Broncos by 188 total yards. Chris Creighton is 22-15-2 ATS off a loss in his six years in Ypsilanti. We look for a solid victory for the host on Saturday. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-30-19 | Knicks v. Magic -9 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
540 New York at Orlando Simply put the New York Knicks are terrible, and any time we can bet against them at a reasonable number we will. Coming off a undeserved home victory over Chicago seems like as good a time as any. While the score shows a 105-98 win, the average lead in the game was 8.9 points. By the Bulls! Chicago dominated that game and yet found a way to lose. On the season New York is 3-1 ATS despite very rarely holding a lead. Orlando is coming off losses to Atlanta and Toronto, two teams playing much better than expected. The Magic are well rested having only played three games this season and no back to backs. With Milwaukee and Denver on the horizon this is a must win game for the host. We expect a terrific effort from the Magic as they win this one handily. PLAY ORLANDO |
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10-29-19 | Hawks +8 v. Heat | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
533 Atlanta at Miami While the Hawks are playing in the second game of a back to back, Miami is playing its third game in four days. It’s also the first game with Jimmy Butler a key offseason signing. Since Butler didn’t play in the first three games we can look for rust to be a factor after coming back from the birth of a child. Atlanta was good to us yesterday and continues to be underrated in the betting marketplace. This young team is playing with great confidence now, showing yesterday it could play head up with the elite in the east. Despite that loss Atlanta led the majority of the game. No way the line should be this high with the way the Hawks are playing right now. PLAY ATLANTA |
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10-28-19 | Nuggets v. Kings +6 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
530 Denver at Sacramento Everybody and their brother likes this Denver Nuggets team coming into the season. It’s an extremely talented team that many feel will represent the Western Conference in this years championship. But despite a 2-0 start to the season the Nuggets haven’t been overly impressive. Having to go to overtime against Phoenix at home last time out as an example. We see it all the time. A team is highly publicized in the off season and believes all the hype. Hey how bout those Cleveland Browns! Now sitting at 2-0 with an improved Dallas on deck tomorrow, what kind of effort will we see out of the Nuggets tonight. The Kings on the other hand are 0-3 on the young season, losing all three games by double digits. The last being a 113-81 road loss at Utah. Nobody wants these Kings tonight, which means the value is there on the host. This team is not nearly as bad as it has shown so far, and this is the only game in a three day stretch. With the Clippers twice, Boston and Milwaukee on deck, this is an all in game for the host. PLAY SACRAMENTO |
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10-28-19 | 76ers v. Hawks +5 | Top | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
516 Philadelphia at Atlanta Joel Embid is listed as questionable tonight, but this analysis expects him to play. While Embid has a sizable advantage down low over the Hawks, we like the way this young team has started the season. Atlanta has the youngest starting five in the league including two rookies who have gotten off to impressive starts. This is a matchup of the only two undefeated teams in the league and the home crowd will be pumped. Trey Young has been outstanding thus far and the line provides us value on the host. We look for a high scoring contest with Atlanta pulling off the shocker. PLAY ATLANTA |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills -2 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 13 m | Show |
262 Philadelphia at Buffalo The Eagles only wins have come against 1 win Washington, 1 win NY Jets and the Packers in a game it lost the yardage battle by 155. This team simply cannot protect the quarterback as Wentz just doesn’t have time to look downfield. That makes it easy on this Buffalo defense who can flood the box. Buffalo’s only loss on the season was to undefeated New England in a game it outgained the Pats by 151 yards. That looks really impressive now based on what the Pats have done this season. If Philadelphia can’t be competitive last week against Dallas, how can we expect this offense to move the ball on Buffalo. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
208 Notre Dame at Michigan Notre Dame at Michigan From a game score perspective the Irish are 4 points better than Michigan, but that includes the first three games of the season for the Wolverines. Since that time Michigan is 3 points better than the Irish as this team has stayed under the national radar. After starting the year poorly it looks as if most bettors have ignored the Michigan improvement. Brian Kelly is 8-4 ATS off a bye, so the Irish should be fully prepared here. But based on the Irish success we feel Notre Dame is getting too much credit in the betting markets. This is the only home game in a month span for the Wolverines, and its a rare night game. That in itself should ensure a crazy packed atmosphere for the host. Keep in mind Michigan is 28-4 SU under Harbaugh at home. With the line movement towards the visitor, we have great value on the Wolverines. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
473 Philadelphia at Dallas Second of three straight road games for the Eagles off a loss at Minnesota. While Philadelphia slowly gets healthy the Cowboys are suffering several key injuries including two offensive linemen and its best receiver. Without a healthy Amari Cooper this passing game has been a disaster. Dallas started the season on fire as the new offensive coordinator looked like a huge upgrade. But this imaginative offense early on has become increasingly stagnant. What looked like impressive wins over the Giants, Redskins and Miami, now look much worse as those teams are among the worst in the league. The Cowboys are 18-30 ATS as a home favorite under Jason Garrett. The Eagles have a huge coaching edge here and are playing with triple revenge in this contest. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -102 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
452 Arizona at New York Giants The Cardinals offense still hasn’t performed as expected by the new coaching staff. Despite getting a returning player in the defensive backfield we just don’t believe in this Arizona stop unit. New York has extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday. With several key players returning for the Giants this line surprises us. We were expecting something a couple points higher. Maybe playing Cincinnati and Atlanta, as opposed to Minnesota and New England has the betting markets fooled. We will take advantage of that and back the better team at home with extra rest. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts -1 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
454 Houston at Indianapolis The Texans sure have a lot of new backers after edging the Chiefs last week. But we are not one of them. This is still a team that struggles to protect the quarterback. And Frank Reich and company have really been able to get to DeShaun Watson. This is the second straight road game for Houston, who have just one winning road season under Bill O’Brien. The Colts are on a bye week after beating the Chiefs themselves in a more impressive game just two weeks ago. Indy is 7-3 SU at home under Reich and matches up well with the Texans. Indy is 3-1 the past two seasons against Houston despite only having a combined 11-17 record against the rest of the league. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 54 m | Show |
390 Baylor at Oklahoma State We really liked the Baylor Bears coming into the season and they sure haven’t disappointed with a perfect 6-0 record. But the Bears are now playing for the fifth straight week, with four of those contests being decided by one score. The Bears have been on the right side of the coin flip games, which can’t go on forever. The last three weeks Baylor has beaten Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech by a combined 106 yards. It was a +4 turnover margin that turned those games toward the Bears. From a game score level the Cowboys are 1.2 points better than the Bears. We also show that Oklahoma State has played the much tougher schedule, a full six points per game tougher. The host is also coming off a bye which gives them a full week head start on preparations. This line has risen by a point at this writing, and it’s still showing plenty of value. As much as we like Baylor, the Bears will suffer its first loss of the season Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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10-19-19 | Duke v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 125 h 51 m | Show |
318 Duke at Virginia We went against the Wahoos last week with success as Virginia came up short against Miami Florida on Friday. But now we look to back Virginia with an extra day of prep. The Cavaliers have beaten Duke each of the last four seasons by margins of 14, 7, 14 and 8 points. And Virginia’s best defensive player was declared out for the season on a special teams play last week. That should be a rallying point for the host, as teams really come together the following game after losing a leader. These two teams have played exactly equal schedules based on our numbers. Yet Duke is only outgaining the opposition by 0.14 yards per play, while Virginia is up 0.72 yards per play. The current numbers assumes these two clubs are equal, but our numbers show Virginia to be the correct side. On a two game losing streak we expect Virginia to turn its season around here, as it continues to dominate the Blue Devils. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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10-19-19 | Central Michigan v. Bowling Green +12 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 36 m | Show |
336 Central Michigan at Bowling Green Going off of game scores we can see the reason why the Chippewas as a double digit favorite here. Central is averaging a game score of 82.6 while the Falcons are at 67.0. But a closer look at the schedules played shows that Bowling Green has faced six point tougher FBS opponents. Despite a 52-0 loss at Notre Dame there were some signs of improvement. Last week the team had its best week of practice on the season, and it manifested itself on the field with an impressive 20-7 win over Toledo. We watched that game and the dominance was real, as we recommended a second half play on Bowling Green for our Twitter followers. It cashed easily, and we feel we have a nice edge on the market again here. A major key in sports betting success is staying ahead of the betting public when it comes to changes on the field. Bowling Green has been bad for so long nobody wants to back them. That is why we can find added value in catching the improvement at the early stages. This will be the eighth straight week Central Michigan has had a game, with Buffalo and Northern Illinois on deck. Bowling Green is much fresher after having a bye before the Notre Dame contest. The biggest jump for a team is after a bye week with a first year coach. This team has looked totally different since putting in more plays in that bye week. The team is extremely excited after that Toledo victory last week, and we expect the new and improved Falcons to surprise once again this week. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
266 San Francisco at LA Rams All credit given to the Niners for beating the teams in front of them. But they have yet to face a quality quarterback. Tampa, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all have problems behind center. And while we feel Jared Goff is a bit overrated, his home/road dichotomy can’t be forgotten. He has been much better in his career playing at home. The Niners are 4-0 and a win here really puts them in the drivers seat in this division. So this becomes a must win game for the Rams. Los Angeles also has the advantage on ten days to prepare, while the Niners had to play Monday night. There has been a major overreaction regarding these teams based on its nationally televised games last week. We take advantage with a short number here. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 101 h 5 m | Show |
206 Wyoming at San Diego State The Cowboys have been very fortunate this year starting with its opening game victory hosting Missouri. Keep in mind Wyoming was +3 in turnovers and lost the yardage battle by 148 against the Tigers. In five games this season Wyoming has yet to lose the turnover battle and sits at a +8 on the season in that regard. The Cowboys have a season long first down deficit of 39 on the year. Which is amazing for a team with a 4-1 record. What all these numbers tell us is that this team could be the most lucky squad in the nation. San Diego State also sits at 4-1 on the year and by our numbers have played a one point easier schedule than Wyoming. The Aztecs have been just as fortunate with turnovers as the Cowboys, with a +9 advantage on the season. But unlike its opponent San Diego State has a +25 first down advantage, and have out gained all but one opponent. Losing the yardage by 3 to Utah State. Btw, Wyoming has lost the yardage battle in 4 of its 5 games. Our game grades show San Diego State to be over a touchdown better in this contest, and that number is on a neutral field. Wyoming’s strength is running the football at 5.64 yards per carry, but the Aztecs are a stout defense allowing only 1.79 ypc on the season. That will put the emphasis on Sean Chambers to throw the football, which isn’t a good thing if you are from Laramie. He is completing a terrible 38.6% of his throws and his QB rating is a minuscule 99.87. San Diego State has picked off twice as many balls as it has allowed touchdowns, 6 to 3. We expect a double digit win for the host here. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
204 Penn State at Iowa Penn State has played 4 of 5 games at home and It’s toughest opponent thus far has been Pitt. A game in which the Nittany Lions really struggled. We love the defense Penn State has shown, but feel the offense took advantage of bad defenses. This will be by far the toughest defense the Nittany Lions have faced this year. This is a rare night game at Kinnick Stadium. And off a game it should have won we like the situation for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has allowed 44 combined points in five FBS games, that less than 9 points per contest. Yet they are a home underdog in what is expected to be a low scoring game. They have a +54 first down advantage on the season, which is amazing. Sure Iowa doesn’t have offensive explosiveness, but the ability to move the chains keeps opposing offenses off the field. We think Penn State is a bit overrated right now, and the betting markets are down on Iowa after the Michigan loss. PLAY IOWA |
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10-12-19 | Old Dominion v. Marshall -14 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 131 h 36 m | Show |
144 Old Dominion at Marshall The Monarchs cost us the last two weeks and we have learned our lesson. The competitive games against Virginia Tech, Virginia and East Carolina, don’t look nearly as good in retrospect. Old Dominion continues to struggle to run the football, and the pass defense is permitting a 140 passer rating. The +3 turnover margin is masking the problems of a 1 to 6 offensive TD to INT ratio. This team has lost to Marshall by 20 points or more in 4 of the last 5 seasons. The Thundering Herd is coming off an embarrassing 24-13 loss to Middle Tennessee State. Marshall outgained the Blue Hens by 177 yards but lost the turnover battle by 4. Losses to Boise State and Cincinnati can be forgiven, but the way this team looked last week is problematic. The Marshall defensive weakness is against the pass, but the Monarchs don’t have a quality passing attack. Marshall won a combined 17 games the past two seasons and returned 14 starters from a year ago. We expect this to be a breakout game for the host. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-10-19 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State +3.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
106 Louisiana Monroe at Texas State The Warhawks enter this contest after falling at home to Memphis, while Texas State had a bye after two straight victories. Against FBS competition the visitor has played a 2 point tougher schedule. ULM has played twice on the road, a 45-44 loss at Florida State and a 72-20 defeat at Iowa State. What looked like an impressive result against the Seminoles, looks a bit different now. Florida State has been a major disappointment, and the +2 turnover margin and negative 82 yard deficit is more telling. ULM is 6-17 straight up on the road under Matt Viator. Jake Spavital is in his first season in San Marcos. After losing to Texas A&M, Wyoming and SMU, he talked about the team starting a new season. Those clubs are currently a combined 13-3. Since that point the Bobcats pounded a pretty good FCS squad in Nicholls State, and beat a 3-2 Georgia State team that upset Tennessee. With the extra week to prepare and our numbers showing the host as a slight favorite, we will gladly take the points with an underrated Bobcats squad. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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10-08-19 | Astros v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 135 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
910 Houston at Tampa Bay Verlander and Castillo RUN LINE PLAY The Rays are going to make it a bullpen day and we like the thinking. Houston has pounded lefties this season, while having a comparable record vs righties as the Rays. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough will likely only get two innings, which is much better than the four to five innings he would normally work filling in for an opener in the regular season. That leaves Poche and McKay as the only other lefties in the bullpen. Houston is 70-45 vs righties while the Rays are 65-43. Houston is 47-35 on the road while Tampa is 49-33 at home. The Stros are 22-8 over the past month while the Rays are 20-10. All the numbers are comparable except that Houston sends Justin Verlander and a likely Cy Young to the mound. Verlander has 32 starts this year, all on four days or more rest. He just threw 100 pitches on October 4th. So now on three days rest the Astros are bringing him back early for the first time all season. This line is being based on him pitching his usual length, but it would not surprise us at all if he is on some type of a pitch count. With that knowledge this line is extremely high. The Astros deserve to be favored, but there is plenty of value on the home dog here. Instead of calling for the outright Rays victory, we will take the generous 1 1/2 runs in a game with a 7 1/2 run total. PLAY TAMPA BAY +1 1/2 RUN LINE |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
391 Michigan State at Ohio State In the last six years Michigan State has been an underdog to the Buckeyes five times. The Spartans won 2 of those 5 games in straight up fashion, as 5 and 14 point dogs. In another game it lost 17-16 while catching 21 1/2 points. Under Mark Dantonio the Spartans are 15-9 ATS as a road underdog. The last time his team was here it was pummeled 48-3, so you know this game has been circled. The Michigan State defense has held the opposition to 1.86 yards per carry. Which is extremely important as Ohio State is averaging 6.10 yards per rush. If the Spartans can slow down this Buckeye running game, Ohio State won’t be nearly as successful through the air. While the Michigan State offense hasn’t looked good overall this season, the team has only turned the ball over four times. The passing game has a 10 to 1 TD to INT ratio, which is also a key in this contest. The Buckeyes have looked terrific this year, but have feasted on poor defenses. That won’t be the case on Saturday. Ohio State is at its peak right now, and we step in with a ton of value on this defensive dog. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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10-05-19 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +3 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 50 m | Show |
384 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Don’t understand why the Hilltoppers are favored here. All of our numbers show the wrong team is the chalk. When looking at FBS opponents only the Monarchs have played a slightly tougher schedule. Despite that fact Old Dominion has been outgained by 23 yards per game, while Western is being outplayed by 25 yards per contest. On the season vs FBS competition Western Kentucky is even in turnovers, but have lost the first down battle by a combined 10. Old Dominion is +1 in turnovers and is +4 in first downs. The Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS as a road favorite under Tyson Helton. We are currently on a 15-1 College Football run with our only loss coming on these Monarchs last week against East Carolina. We return to the scene of the crime, as an overreaction has been made in the Western Kentucky victory over UAB. A team that lost the yardage battle by 76 but took advantage of a +3 turnover margin. Wrong team favored here. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-05-19 | Ohio v. Buffalo +3.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
372 Ohio U at Buffalo This line is built on preseason expectations much more than on the field results. While the Bobcats do have an extra week to prepare, we are not sure the extra time will change the team woes. These two teams have rotated victories since 2010. Last year Ohio pounded the Bulls 52-17. So based on history it’s the Buffalo year for a victory. Ohio has played a two point tougher FBS schedule thus far, but the numbers clearly point to the wrong team being favored here. Our numbers show Buffalo to have a three point higher game score on the season. A key to this game will be the Buffalo running game, combined with the lack of passing success for the Bobcats. Buffalo is out gaining it’s opponents on the ground 4.7 ypc to 2.8 ypc. While Ohio u is allowing 5.5 yards per carry themselves. The Bulls have struggled against the pass allowing a 156 passer rating and 12 touchdowns. But we have series concerns that Ohio can take advantage. The Bobcats only have a 130 passer rating with a 6 to 4 TD to INT ratio. According to recent history Buffalo gets the victory here, and the season stats back it up. PLAY BUFFALO |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
275 Dallas at New Orleans The Cowboys protect the quarterback better than any team in the league, allowing just 2% sacks per pass attempt. Much of that is because the Cowboys rank 4th in the league in yards per play rushing the football. This team leads the league in 3rd down percentage at 58% success. The Saints are in the lower half of the league offensively, at 21st in yards per game. They also score just 24 points per contest, with most of the success coming under Drew Brees. The Saints are 30th in defensive yards per play and 29th in passing yards allowed per game. This Saints defense will be in for a long day. PLAY DALLAS |
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09-29-19 | Redskins +3 v. Giants | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
255 Washington at NY Giants Washington has had a hard time running the football, but should find great success in the passing game. They rank 9th in the league in passing yards per game. The return game also is in the top 10 of the league. The defensive weakness is in 3rd down defense, but the Giants are without its best player at RB and is starting a rookie QB with just one game under his belt. The Giants lead the league in rushing yards per play, but that won’t be the strength without its star. This team ranks 31st defensively in stopping the run, and dead last in passing yards allowed per game. We see the Skins have a great deal of success through the air. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-28-19 | Colorado State +24.5 v. Utah State | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
193 Colorado State at Utah State The last three seasons the Rams have outscored the Aggies by a 15 point combined margin. This despite being a combined 26 point underdog. In FBS contests this year Colorado State is averaging 57 more offensive yards than Utah State. Defensively Utah State is 35 yards better. So the numbers are very close between the two. So it must be strength of schedule that is the big difference. Not so, as the Rams played Colorado on a neutral, at Arkansas and hosted Toledo. The Aggies played at Wake Forest and San Diego State. Our power ratings show that Utah State played a 2 point tougher FBS schedule. Not nearly enough evidence to have the Aggies in this price range. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 137 h 1 m | Show |
166 Kansas State at Oklahoma State The Wildcats are coming in off a bye after upsetting Mississippi State on the road. But while K State got the victory, it was out-gained by 83 yards. The Wildcats live and die off the running game, but this will be the best rush defense they have faced. As for stopping the run this team has permitted 4.74 yards per carry, against a weak overall slate. Oklahoma State has run the ball effectively this season. In three FBS games the Cowboys have produced 5.94 ypc. All three of those games were on the road. Oklahoma State is much better tested and has double revenge for losses by 19 and 5 points the past two seasons. This team is 9-2 ATS off a straight up loss the last three seasons. We look for a Cowboy rebound on Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-22-19 | Giants +6 v. Bucs | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show |
477 NY Giants at Tampa Bay Despite having Eli Manning behind center, the Giants have been very efficient offensively this season. But now the Giants have the ability to stretch the field with the quarterback change. There has been a divide between the players and management regarding who lined up behind center. Now that the change has been made, we look for this to be a rallying point game for the Giants players. The Bucs are a team we can make money on this season, but not as a sizable home favorite. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 7 m | Show |
466 Baltimore at Kansas City As much as we like this Baltimore Ravens team, this squad is taking a huge step up in competition this week. After facing Miami and Arizona, (the two lowest season win teams coming into the season), they now face the most successful offense in the league. We all know that offense is much more sticky than defense from season to season, and week to week. So we know the Chiefs will get plenty of points here. But we’re not so sure that Baltimore can match them. The alignments Andy Reid uses should work very well against this Ravens defense. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida v. Pittsburgh +12 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
320 Central Florida at Pittsburgh The Knights had their major show me game last week while hosting Stanford. While the team won by 18, we weren’t overly impressed. Stanford hasn’t looked good in any game this year, and the long trip to Florida certainly wasn’t the best of spots for the Cardinal. That game was sandwiched by two conference games with USC and Oregon. Pitt has played a much improved Virginia, the MAC favorite Ohio U and a very good Penn State squad. In those games the Panthers have outgained the opposition by a combined 229 yards. With just Delaware on deck we can see the host taking this one to the wire. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
349 Washington at BYU This is the first road game of the season for the Huskies, who are 17-9 straight up away under Chris Peterson. Washington pounded the Cougars 35-7 a year ago, and the talent levels haven’t changed much.  The records show that BYU is 2-1 on the season. But this team has been outgained and out first downed each and every week. The Cougars are being outgained on the ground by 1.16 yards per carry. Last week was the first time in four seasons under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered as a home dog. Now 1-4-1 catching points at home. We simply don’t trust the Cougars to keep this close. Washington has the much better athletes and a superior coaching staff. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-21-19 | UL-Monroe v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 20-72 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
312 Louisiana Monroe at Iowa State Many will point to how well the Warhawks played at Florida State last week. But the Seminoles have struggled mightily this season. Despite the 45-44 loss, ULM lost yardage by 82 and had a +2 turnover margin. Since 2015 when playing at a power five program the Warhawks have lost by 49, 38, 32, 28, 51, 42, 34 and 37 points. That was until last weeks contest at Florida State. On the other hand Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17, despite losing the turnover battle by 2. The Cyclones outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 total yards. After back to back tight contests, we expect the Cyclones to take out some frustrations here. Iowa State is allowing just 2.15 yards per carry. This defense will force ULM into many third and long situations. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -8 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
310 Air Force at Boise State Some money has come in on the Falcons, but we are not in agreement. Maybe it was a head fake trying to get this down to seven, but regardless we like the home favorite here. Second straight road game for Air Force who just knocked off Colorado on the road. While the Falcons got the victory, the game grade points out that they were fortunate with the win. Colorado is +7 on the season in turnovers, so we don’t rate the Buffaloes nearly as high as others. Air Force currently ranks 13th in the country in rushing at 6.04 yards per carry. But that was against two poor rush defenses. Boise State is permitting 3.54 yards per carry which ranks 50th. But they faced Florida State who averages 3.86 ypc, and Marshall who averages 5.99 yards per carry. Which illustrates just how good this Broncos rush defense has been. Unlike non conference opponents that face the option rarely, Boise State faces the Falcons every season. The last two years Boise has won by margins of 10 and 25 points. We expect another double digit home victory on Friday. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-07-19 | Stanford +3 v. USC | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
385 Stanford at USC Both teams will be without its starting quarterback this week, as both suffered injuries in last weeks games. While the drop-off is much more devastating for the Trojans. New Stanford starter Davis Mills was a highly recruited player, while USC’s signal caller was a 3* recruit who was fourth on the depth chart just a month ago. Stanford has won outright 4 of the last 6 meetings in this building, and the Cardinal have a huge coaching advantage. Stanford is 10-6-1 ATS as an underdog under David Shaw and 31-14 straight up on the road. USC is now 3-10 ATS as a home favorite the past 2+ years under Clay Helton. PLAY STANFORD |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
209 Louisiana Tech at Texas Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. His teams are on a 16-9 spread run against non-conference opponents. With Grambling State on deck you know his team will be all in to knock off a major conference heavyweight. For some reason Texas has gotten a great deal of hype in the offseason. For the life of us we can’t understand why. In the past five seasons the Longhorns have only had 13 players drafted, including two last year. Under Tom Herman Texas is 1-6 ATS as a double digit favorite. Herman’s role is that of an underdog. Last year they had nine of its 14 games decided by seven points or less. Texas is 3-7 as a home favorite under Herman and the team has a huge game hosting LSU on deck. This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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08-23-19 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
918 Detroit at Minnesota VerHagen & Berrios The Twins are 18-10 vs the Tigers the past two seasons. Drew VerHagan has gotten three starts for Detroit with game scores of 54, 31 and 24. Those starts came against the White Sox, Angels and Mariners. Now he steps up in class to face the Twins. Jose Berrios has an average game score of 55 his last five against the Tigers. Detroit is 21-44 on the road and 28-70 vs righties. Let’s take advantage of the pitching mismatch. PLAY MINNESOTA RUN LINE -1.5 |
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06-10-19 | Warriors v. Raptors +1 | Top | 106-105 | Push | 0 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
530 Golden State at Toronto The much better team in this series has been the Toronto Raptors. If you were to take the names off the front of the jerseys the Raptors would be a clear betting favorite. If it wasn’t for one half of a basketball game Toronto would already be champions. Toronto was favored by 2 1/2 to 3 points before the news broke that Kevin Durant would try to play tonight. I’m now seeing a three to four point line move, for a player who hasn’t stepped on the court in weeks. He’s an excellent player when fully healthy, but that’s not what we will be getting tonight. Besides, if you are Durant, a free agent after these playoffs, do you really want to risk the chance of getting further injured right before a huge payday? The Warriors have played without him for weeks, and now they must adjust to him back in the lineup. If this was a regular season game the wise guys would be looking to fad the Warriors here. We look to do the same even if it is the playoffs. PLAY TORONTO |
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