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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-08-16 | Northern Illinois +19.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
321 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan It’s a huge matchup of series history against current form. Northern Illinois has beaten Western Michigan seven straight times with the closest outcome being by 7 points. Western Michigan on the other hand have beaten the likes of Northwestern, Illinois and Central Michigan. PJ Fleck is a highly sought after coach who will likely be offered the Purdue job at years end. But this is not a very good spot for the Broncos. Last weeks blowout of Central Michigan was the legitimizer win for this program. After winning eight games each of the last two years the Broncos are now on the edge of the Top 25, and are talked about being a possible undefeated squad. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves Western Michigan fans, keep in mind you are +9 in turnover margin against FBS competition. In fact, the Broncos haven’t turned the ball over all season. That type of luck isn’t likely to continue as this team, coming into this season, were -4 in turnovers in the first three years of the PJ Fleck era. Northern Illinois is 1-4 on the season but a perfect 1-0 in MAC action. Losses at Wyoming in altitude, along with defeats at South Florida and San Diego State are excusable. Both those teams are Top 30 worthy. This is a veteran team with 58 lettermen returning along with a starting quarterback who transferred in from Western Michigan. That knowledge of the system can only help the Huskies. While Western is the clearly better team in the public eye, Northern Illinois knows how to beat this team. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-08-16 | Purdue +10.5 v. Illinois | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 53 m | Show | |
345 Purdue at Illinois Before the season we lined this game at Illinois by a touchdown, the line is now more than three points higher. Why? Because Purdue can’t hold onto the football. In the three FBS games the Boilermakers are -8 in turnover margin. You would have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a Purdue program with that type of turnover luck. The years prior to and afterward they had a +11 and +12 turnover margin. What we are trying to explain is there is a great deal of luck when predicting turnover margin, and we expect some regression. Purdue has major revenge with the Illini from a 48-14 home loss a year ago. Before you make the case that this team has a lot of revenge situations lately, let me explain. The prior meetings in this series were decided by 11, 4, 3 and 7 points. With Purdue winning 3 of those 4 games and the lone loss coming by four points. Against FBS competition Illinois has scored 23 against North Carolina, 10 against Western Michigan and 16 against Nebraska. That’s just over 16 points per game without playing any elite defenses. Tough to lay double digits in a close series when you can’t put a lot of points on the board. PLAY PURDUE |
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10-08-16 | Texas State +10.5 v. Georgia State | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 42 m | Show | |
363 Texas State at Georgia State The Bobcats have won 2 of the 3 meetings against the Panthers, yet they have been installed as a sizable underdog. This is a team that has already faced the likes of Arkansas and Houston and beat Ohio U on the road. Everett Withers has this team believing in itself and after facing an FCS club last week will be well prepared to avenge that 41-19 home loss a year ago as a favorite. Since becoming at FBS program in 2011 the Panthers have produced a 6-26 straight up record at home. How many games has this team won in this building by double digits? Just twice against South Alabama and Troy, with the largest victory being 14 points. So you are asking a very poor home team with a minimal home field advantage to do something it rarely does, win by margin. Georgia State has played four games this season, scoring 21, 14, 17 and 3 points. That’s an average of just over 11 points per game. Very close to the current line in this contest. Tough to lay doubles when you yourself can’t put points on the board. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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10-08-16 | Maryland v. Penn State +1.5 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 34 m | Show | |
328 Maryland at Penn State The Terrapins are getting a lot of love right now with the line moving them to the favorite in this game. But while we like what DJ Durkin has done with this team, the excitement for this program doesn’t match the talent. The Terrapins have played Howard, Florida International, Central Florida and Purdue. The best of the bunch is a UCF team that also has a new coach and is going through a system change. While Maryland was able to beat the Knights 30-24 it was helped along by a +4 turnover advantage. The other teams have not been impressive in any way this season. Now Maryland is expect to beat Penn State outright in Happy Valley. Penn State is far more tested with games against Pittsburgh, Temple, Michigan and Minnesota. The Nittany Lions won 2 of those 4 contests with only the loss at Michigan being non-competitive. Penn State as a program isn’t where it used to be, but it’s still further along than Maryland. Before the season started we made Penn State a two touchdown favorite here, there has not been a 14 point change between these two programs thus far. PLAY PENN STATE |
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10-07-16 | Boise State v. New Mexico +17 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -104 | 57 h 32 m | Show |
316 Boise State at New Mexico Many will look towards the revenge angle in this one as Boise State was shocked 31-24 last year, losing as a 31 point favorite. But a quick look at history shows that the Broncos have a terrible time against the option. When going against Air Force and New Mexico the past five years Boise State is 6-3 straight up but 0-9 ATS. In fact those spread losses have been by margins of 18, 38, 8, 27, 9, 1.5, 22.5, 3.5 and 18. That’s over 16 points per game against the spread. The Broncos played Utah State last week so it has no extra time to practice for the option. Bob Davie has done a tremendous job here in Albuquerque since taking over the program in 2012. After consecutive single win seasons from 2009 thru 2011 this club has posted win totals of 4, 3, 4 and 7 the past four seasons. That may not sound overly impressive to most, but people in the know are well aware of his coaching ability. An outright upset here would really not be out of the realm of possibility. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17 | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 11 m | Show | |
312 Clemson at Boston College Obvious letdown spot here for the Tigers off that huge victory over Louisville on national television and it doesn’t help that next week they host NC State for homecoming. This Clemson offense isn’t nearly as potent as a year ago and this will be the best defense these Tigers have faced this season. Keep in mind the last three seasons Clemson has won by margins of 17, 4 and 10 points while averaging just 25 points per contest. It’s hard to lay 17 in a game in which you have only been able to score 25. This Clemson team only has 3 more explosive plays than they have allowed on the season. That includes games against Troy, South Carolina State and Georgia Tech. Boston College is not a potent offense but it has averaged just short of 15 ppg the last three meetings. It’s the third straight home game for the Eagles which have a bye on deck. The last time BC has been a double digit home dog was in 2014 against #9 USC, the Eagles won that game outright 37-31. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE |
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10-06-16 | Temple +9.5 v. Memphis | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 6 m | Show | |
305 Temple at Memphis Surprised by the high line here as Temple has been an excellent 10-4 ATS when installed as a road underdog. The Owls have had its way against the Tigers winning by 19 last year in a 21 1/2 point cover. Cashing by 4 1/2 the previous year, and winning by 20 in 2013 in a 28 point cover. Temple is a team that doesn’t make mistakes and has won 13 of its last 19 games straight up. Memphis looked great against the likes of SE Missouri State, Kansas and Bowling Green. But the team stepped up in class against Ole Miss last week and lost by 20. The offensive line continues to struggle as the QB was under pressure all game. Memphis won 10 and 9 games the last two years under Justin Fuente and Paxton Lynch, but despite the early blowouts this team isn’t nearly as good. If the Tigers couldn’t cover against Temple with those two, we can’t see them distancing themselves from the Owls here. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +8.5 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
302 Georgia Southern at Arkansas State Money continues to pour in on Georgia Southern but is that really sharp money? Sure the Eagles have the better record and the stats show them to be the superior team, but take a look at the schedules. Georgia Southern has played Savannah State, South Alabama, Louisiana Monroe and Western Michigan. When stepping up in class to play the Broncos this team lost by 18 and had a -4 turnover disadvantage. Arkansas State on the other hand faced Toledo, Auburn, Utah State and Central Arkansas. The FCS loss to Central Arkansas is a major reason why this line is high, but teams off a loss to a lower division squad are teams we want to back the following game. The Red Wolves have won 7 games or better each of the last five years. In that time frame they have been home dogs just three times. With this being the first conference game for the Red Wolves the team can still reach the goal of winning the Sun Belt Conference. It’s a new season for Arkansas State and a nationally televised game in Jonesboro is just the ticket to get this bad taste out of the players mouths. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -3 | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
276 Kansas City at Pittsburgh We like to not only power rate teams based on total game performances, but also first half play which is a truer indication of team strength. In the first half Kansas City is being outscored 37-23 with a +1 turnover advantage. The Chiefs have been outgunned by 2.4, 0.9 and 0.8 yards per play in the first half. This is a squad that overall has lost the sack battle by two in each game, despite the fact that the Chiefs don’t throw the ball downfield. Pittsburgh is off an embarrassing lost to instate rival Philadelphia. The weakness in the Steeler defense is throws of 15 or more yards in the air. Kansas City simply doesn’t throw the ball long as its a dink and dunk passing game. We look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of a strong home field and win this by double digits. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3.5 | 27-7 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
268 Denver at Tampa Bay Now that the line has risen above a field goal its time to step in with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a home underdog. This team is in a must win situation and this contest is much more important to the host. At 1-2 on the season and a trip to Carolina on deck Tampa cannot afford to lose this contest. Turnovers have hurt the Bucs thus far and are a concern here against this aggressive Denver defense, but they have outgunned 2 of 3 opponents in yards per play. Denver is a perfect 3-0 on the season and go on the road for the second straight week. With a nice lead in the division we can see Denver underperforming here. Keep in mind the Broncos are playing a non-conference affair which is the lowest priority games on the NFL schedule. This line is saying that the Broncos are a 6 point better team on a neutral field. That’s a bit much, especially considering the situation for the host. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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10-02-16 | Browns v. Redskins OVER 46 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 24 m | Show | |
253 Cleveland at Washington Nothing wrong with this Browns offense regardless of who is behind center. Against pretty good defenses in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Miami the Browns have produced 5.8, 6.6 and 5.8 yards per play. The problem has been a Browns defense which has yielded 29, 25 and 30 points the first three weeks. Like Cleveland the Washington offense remains fine with 7.0, 6.6 and 5.9 ypp in the first three games. The problems are a sieve of a defense permitting 38, 27 and 27 points. Right now this Cleveland offense is under the radar based on past history and the turnover at quarterback. We use that to our advantage in this likely high scoring affair. PLAY OVER |
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10-02-16 | Titans v. Texans -4 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
264 Tennessee at Houston We’ve waited all week as the public has gotten involved in this one pushing the line way below where it should have been. This game should have been lined around a touchdown but with the news of JJ Watt possibly being lost for the season the line has dropped roughly 3 points. In his prime Watt was worth about 1 1/2 points to the spread. He has been injured all year with a back problem and the analytics show he has been a below average NFL player this season. So we get a 3 point line movement on a team that should be even better just by not having the injured player on the field. Houston is off an embarrassing 27-0 shutout loss on national television last Thursday. The Texans have two full days to prepare and it has owned the Titans as of late. Winning by margins of 28, 14, 24 and 14 points the last two seasons. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS as a divisional road dog under Mike Mularkey. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-01-16 | Oregon v. Washington State +2.5 | Top | 33-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
216 Oregon at Washington State This Oregon program is on the decline under Mark Helfrich. His teams performed well in 2013 and 2014 with the Chip Kelly recruits. But last year the Ducks broke a streak of 7 straight seasons of double digit victories with a 9-4 record including losing its bowl game. The last two weeks the Ducks lost to both Nebraska and Colorado despite winning the turnover battle in each game, which is hard to do. Washington State and Mike Leach has played Oregon tough over the years. The last five games the Cougars have covered by margins of 23 1/2, 16, 15 1/2, 5 1/2 and 20 points. Last year Washington State won in straight up fashion in Eugene. The wrong team is favored here. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |
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10-01-16 | Memphis v. Ole Miss -14.5 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 103 h 50 m | Show |
116 Memphis at Mississippi The Tigers have been impressive thus far with dominate wins over SE M and Bowling Green. But the first win came against an FCS team and the Jayhawks and Falcons are two of the weaker teams in the FBS this season. That said, Mike Norvell has inherited a team that won 9 and 10 games the previous two years with Justin Fuente at the helm and Paxton Lynch behind center. Mississippi has had this game circled after losing at Memphis last year 37-24 as a 10 1/2 point road favorite. While Memphis has played a very weak schedule Ole Miss has taken on the likes of Alabama, Georgia and Florida State. Under Hugh Freeze the Rebels are 14-7-1 when installed as home favorites and the team has a bye week on deck. We look for an inspired effort from the host as the step up in defenses faced for Memphis will be too much to overcome. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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10-01-16 | Akron v. Kent State +7 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
154 Akron at Kent State Tough to lay points on the road in a rivalry game when your defense is allowing 577.7 yards per game the last three contests. Akron hasn’t beaten the Golden Flashes in regulation the past five times here. The only victory was a double overtime 30-27 win here in 2008. In three games against FBS competition the Zips have permitted 45, 38 and 54 points. No way this team should be a touchdown favorite. Due to injuries the Golden Flashes are down to its third string quarterback, but like the Cleveland Browns last week the drop-off is virtually nonexistent. Kent is coming off a physical Alabama game last week but the two previous contests were vs FCS squads. Kent is also playing with shutout revenge for a 20-0 defeat last year at Akron. In two FBS games Kent has played at Penn State and Alabama, the drop-off in defensive faced is huge. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-30-16 | Toledo v. BYU -3.5 | 53-55 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 21 m | Show | |
108 Toledo at BYU We made this line before the season as BYU -7 1/2, and can’t figure out why it’s moved over a field goal. Toledo is a team we really like in the MAC but they have yet to be tested. Wins against Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State isn’t enough to prepare you for BYU off a rare home loss in altitude. The Rockets rarely travel west of the Mississippi and haven’t done well in that regard the past 20 years. BYU has already faced Arizona, Utah, UCLA and West Virginia, they are very well tested. The UCLA game was the only contest played at home this season. With Michigan State on deck the Cougars need a satisfying win and we believe they get it. While Toledo has the speed edge the Cougars have a huge edge in the trenches. PLAY BYU |
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09-28-16 | Mets -114 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
907 New York at Miami Surprised by the low line in this one as Lugo has been excellent for the Mets since his promotion. With New York holding on to a wild card spot and Miami playing out the string we see value in the visitor. Especially when you consider the emotional state of the Marlins. After the terrible tragedy of Jose Fernandez the team rallied around his memory in the first game back to action. Now after its all settled in the team played lackluster yesterday. We expect more of the same on Wednesday. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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09-25-16 | Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
487 Chicago at Dallas The injury to Jay Cutler is a positive as Brian Hoyer is equal or better than the troubled Bears starter. In fact, his teammates have never been a fan of Cutler so we should see an added focus for Hoyer. Dallas has been a very poor team at home posting a 1-8 straight up mark at the Jerry Dome. Underdogs in Cowboys games have been golden the past few seasons as points seem to be at a premium. Dallas is a public team, and after the terrible Monday Night Football performances from the Bears, value is on Chicago. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-25-16 | Browns +10 v. Dolphins | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
469 Cleveland at Miami Nobody wants any part of the Browns right now and there is even talk of Cleveland going winless. But keep in mind the Browns had a better yards per play average in both games against Philadelphia and Baltimore. The drop-off at quarterback from RGIII and McCown to Kessler is out eyes is very minimal. We’ve already seen rookie QBs have success the past couple years, and we see no reason why Kessler can’t keep the Browns competitive. Miami has one of the weakest home field advantages in the NFL, and how many times do you see an 0-2 team laying this type of number? This goes down to the wire. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-25-16 | Vikings +7 v. Panthers | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
476 Minnesota at Carolina Carolina struggled offensively the last two games against Denver, and we rate this Minnesota team just as strongly defensively. Minnesota has been on quite the pointspread run as the winning has continued into the 2016 season. Despite the loss of their top running back who is out a few games at the minimum, we are fine with the other Minnesota runners. Bradford has been solid as a replacement at quarterback and we just don’t see a lot of difference in our power ratings between these two teams. A touchdown is just too much to lay into this Minnesota defense. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State +9 v. Baylor | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 9 m | Show | |
349 Oklahoma State at Baylor The Cowboys have been tested with back to back games against Central Michigan and Pittsburgh. This is a team that is on a 6-3 run as road dogs and well remembers last years meeting hosting the Bears. Oklahoma State was ranked #4 in the country and were knocked off by Baylor 45-35 at home. That led to a three game losing streak to end the season after such a promising start. This game has been circled by the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has won six straight outright on the road including wins at Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. Unlike the Cowboys Baylor has cruised this season against some of the worst teams in college football. Wins over Northwestern State, SMU and Rice doesn’t prepare you for Big 12 play. While the Baylor defense has been fine the offense produced just 5.2 yards per play against SMU and 6.6 vs Rice. The big play ability in past seasons doesn’t seem to be there this season in Waco. Too many points to give a Cowboys team that has revenge on its mind. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-24-16 | Florida +6.5 v. Tennessee | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 4 m | Show | |
383 Florida at Tennessee It’s not often that a team has lost 11 straight in a series is installed as a touchdown favorite. Especially since the Volunteers have majorly underperformed this year while this weeks opposition has been outstanding. In three games this season Tennessee has lost the yards per play battle 4.4 to 4.3 against Appalachian State, and 5.3 to 4.9 against Virginia Tech. Last week the team did outperform Ohio 5.9 to 4.2 but only won by 9 as a 27 1/2 point favorite. While this is the first road game of the season for Florida, last year under Jim McElwain the Gators went 3-1 SU on the road with the only loss being by 7 at #6 LSU. Florida is down to its second string QB this week but Appleby had plenty of experience at Purdue before transferring. The best unit on the field is the Florida defense which is already +15 sacks on the season. A major advantage this week against a Tennessee offensive line which has struggled. We look for the Gators to extend this winning streak to 12 with an outright win in Knoxville. PLAY FLORIDA |
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09-24-16 | Miami (OH) +17 v. Cincinnati | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 19 m | Show |
375 Miami Ohio at Cincinnati Terrible scheduling situation for the host who played Houston on National Television last week and have major revenge against South Florida on deck. USF led Cincy 51-3 at halftime in what would become an embarrassing 65-27 loss. The Bearcats have dominated this one way rivalry series winning ten straight. We can’t see them getting up to play this lesser MAC team. Miami on the other hand is much improved this year and has already faced the likes of Iowa and Western Kentucky, two spread covering contests. While conference action starts next week as the Redhawks host Ohio, this game has more meaning to the players. A win over their close rival would build major confidence heading into MAC action. Under Chuck Martin Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog and they have enough talent to take this one to the wire. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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09-24-16 | Iowa -12.5 v. Rutgers | 14-7 | Loss | -106 | 70 h 59 m | Show | |
325 Iowa at Rutgers The Hawkeyes lost as a two touchdown favorite last week to an excellent FCS team in North Dakota State. But we expect a big bounce back here from Kirk Ferentz and his crew. Iowa is 24–13-1 ATS off a straight up loss the past nine years. The Hawkeyes have also been a terrific road favorite cashing ten straight in that role. Iowa has been an outstanding 12-3 straight up on the road the past 3+ years and Rutgers doesn’t have much of a home field advantage. Iowa is a physical team that can dominate this thin Rutgers squad as the game goes on. Rutgers has played two FBS teams thus far losing the yards per play stat by 2.9 to Washington and by 0.2 to New Mexico at home last week. A Lobos team who prefers to run the football as opposed to beating you through the air. The Scarlet Knights are on a 1-7 straight up run in conference play with the lone victory coming against Indiana by 3 points. With only Northwestern on deck there is absolutely no lookahead for the Hawkeyes who have beaten the Wildcats by 30 and 41 points the past two years. PLAY IOWA |
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09-23-16 | USC v. Utah -3 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 58 m | Show | |
310 USC at Utah The Trojans continue to struggle against physical teams as they have now lost eight straight games to Stanford. Utah and Stanford are the two most physical teams in the conference and USC must play them back to back on a short week. The Trojans haven’t been a good road underdog over the years posting a 3-7 spread mark the last five years. USC has failed to cover in Utah since the Utes joined the PAC 12. QB Sam Darnold is making his first start for the Trojans, he is the more mobile signal caller which is needed against this relentless pass rush of Utah. In two FBS games the Utes have a +9 margin in sacks as this team was all over the offenses of BYU and San Jose State. Holding those teams to just 18 points per game. This contest has special meaning for the Utes as these two squared off last year with Utah ranked #3 at the time. That loss at USC set the tone for a total collapse by this squad as Utah dropped 3 of 6 to end the regular season. We know Kyle Whittingham will remind his team of that situation. Big coaching edge here for Utah as the Utes gain revenge against a struggling Trojan squad. PLAY UTAH |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -120 | 81 h 4 m | Show |
290 Philadelphia at ChicagoFirst road start for rookie Carson Wentz who was fortunate to play the weak Cleveland defense opening week. We have the Eagles as one of the four worst teams in the NFL and it will be proven out on Monday Night.The Bears were right in that game last week until late, and we feel this team is being underrated. Already off a loss and with this being a very winnable game we will back the host here. Chicago is a much better team and the current line is very short.PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams +6.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 53 h 50 m | Show | |
280 Seattle at Los AngelesWith Wilson injuring his ankle last week we have a nice overlay here on the home dog. The Seattle offensive line is really struggling right now and its major success has been the mobility of the QB. Without him at full health this offense isn’t nearly where it was last year.First regular season home game for the Rams who are off an embarrassing performance Monday Night. Coach Fisher and his team matches up very well with the Seahawks winning 3 of the last 4 meetings. This line is too high to not take the home dog.PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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09-18-16 | Ravens v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
268 Baltimore at Cleveland Major overreaction here as the Browns likely will be a better offense with McCown behind center. This team has the receivers to stretch the field and keep this team competitive. We simply can’t trust Joe Flacco in the role of sizable road favorite here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-17-16 | Texas State +31 v. Arkansas | 3-42 | Loss | -106 | 72 h 17 m | Show | |
161 Texas State at Arkansas The Bobcats of Texas State really impressed us opening week as we had them plus the points vs Ohio U. This team showed a fight we had not seen out of the Bobcats in previous seasons. Everett Withers has a solid background of coaching success in the FCS, FBS and the NFL. He has brought a new energy to this program and we expect his former success to translate well here. Off an upset victory and a bye week these kids are excited to continue this renewed season. Arkansas is off the overtime win at TCU with Texas A&M revenge on deck next week in the Jerry Dome. The Razorbacks have dropped four straight to the Aggies so you know that game has been circled. But while Arkansas is 2-0 on the season the stats tell a different story. The Razorbacks were outgained in yards per play against Louisiana Tech 5.1 to 4.1 and against vs TCU 6.2 to 5.5. While its true the Razorbacks like to run the football, those numbers are still alarming. Especially for a favorite in this point range in a clear sandwich spot on the Razorback schedule. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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09-17-16 | Navy -5.5 v. Tulane | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
199 Navy at Tulane Last week QB Worth got his first start after Tago Smith was lost to injury in the opener against Fordham. Worth moved the club pretty well in his first action and should continue to improve with more time on the field. The Midshipmen have been very good on the road with six straight seasons of positive ATS marks. Navy beat Tulane last year 31-14 as a 23 1/2 point favorite. Tulane has gotten off to a great start with Willie Fritz with wins over Wake Forest and Southern. But keep in mind weather was a factor against the Demon Deacons and Southern is an FCS entrant. This is still a program that entered the year off 9 losing seasons the past 10, with a combined 34-88 record. Fritz has changed the offense to a spread option here after coming over from Georgia Southern, but these players weren’t recruited for this type of offense. Considering that Navy is years ahead of Tulane in running this offense you have to expect the Midshipmen to have a sizable advantage. PLAY NAVY |
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09-17-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Charlotte +3 | 37-19 | Loss | -104 | 72 h 19 m | Show | |
112 Eastern Michigan at Charlotte The Eagles are 8-60 over the last decade plus when playing on the road. Currently winning just one of the last 21 contests away from Ypsilanti. The last four seasons the Eagles have posted a combined 7-41 overall record heading into 2016. Suspended QB Brogan Roback is coming back this week which is a major reason why money has come in on Eastern Michigan. The same starting QB who led them to a 1-11 record last year. Against Missouri the Eagles were outgunned 8.3 to 5.0 yards per play. We are not buying in on any improvements in this program. Charlotte was blown out by Louisville opening night in front of the entire nation. The 49ers then took care of FCS entrant Elon. But this is an improved team under Brad Lambert in his fourth year here. It’s already on a similar level as this Eagles team. We would much rather trust the fired up home team to get the job done here. Wrong team favored. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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09-17-16 | South Florida v. Syracuse +14.5 | 45-20 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 33 m | Show | |
150 South Florida at Syracuse Don’t read too much into that South Florida blowout of Northern Illinois last week. The Huskies were coming off an overtime contest in the altitude of Wyoming and then had to travel down to the heat and humidity of Tampa. In addition the Huskies lost its starting quarterback to injury in that contest. USF beat Syracuse at home last year by 21 points and have a huge instate game against Florida State on deck. Last Friday Syracuse hosted Louisville on prime time television. While the final verdict got out of hand we like the job Dino Babers is doing here. The line on that game jumped to Louisville -17 which is in the same ballpark as this contest with South Florida. But while the Bulls are a very good team there is no way this squad is in the same category as Florida State, Louisville and Clemson. With the major lookahead for South Florida the Orangemen will take this one to the wire. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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09-17-16 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +11.5 | 48-43 | Win | 100 | 68 h 21 m | Show | |
194 Alabama at Mississippi The Crimson Tide’s stock couldn’t be higher going in to this double revenge situation at Mississippi. As in the stock market you want to buy low and sell high and we are looking to sell on this Alabama team. Don’t take this the wrong way, this is an excellent team but this line is way out of whack based on recent meetings. Alabama gave 6 1/2 to Ole Miss last year at home while laying just 4 1/2 two years ago on this field. Alabama lost those games outright by a combined 23 points against the spread. Mississippi was just catching 4 1/2 on a neutral field against Florida State. A team we rank right behind Alabama in our power ratings. So if that opening game would have been played at home the Rebels would have been getting roughly 1 point against Florida State. Simply put there is no way in hell that the Crimson Tide is 10 points better than Florida State. This line is completely out of whack and we will side with an excellent Huge Freeze in a home underdog role. 5-2 ATS in that situation at Mississippi. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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09-17-16 | Akron +17.5 v. Marshall | Top | 65-38 | Win | 100 | 66 h 23 m | Show |
165 Akron at Marshall Classic overreaction here as the Zips were heavily bet last week only to be blown out at Wisconsin. The line went from +25 to +21 1/2 at close and the Zips were never in the game. But Terry Bowden and the Zips are always a dangerous road dog and because of last week this line is highly inflated. Akron has won 6 of its last 7 games dating back to last year. Bowden always brings in high quality transfers, so despite bringing back only 7 starters this year the team has talent. As opposed to the Zips, Marshall has played just one game this year, a blowout of Morgan State. The team has back to back huge recruiting rivalry games on deck against Louisville and Pittsburgh. Because of last week’s results this line is at least 4 points higher than it should be, the lookahead for the Thundering Herd adds to our advantage. PLAY AKRON |
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09-15-16 | Houston v. Cincinnati +7 | Top | 40-16 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 54 m | Show |
104 Houston at Cincinnati The Cougars shocked Oklahoma in the opener 33-23 and made a major jump up in the standings. Last week without injured QB Greg Ward the team beat Lamar in a non-covering victory. While we agree this is talented team, there is no way this team should be a touchdown favorite here. First off in the win vs Oklahoma the Sooners won the yards per play battle 6.0 to 5.0. This is a team traveling on a short week to play on ESPN against a divisional rival. The last three years Houston won at home by 3, lost at Cincinnati by 7 and lost at home to Cincinnati by 7. The Cougars were a combined 29-11 the last three years but just 1-2 vs the Bearcats. Cincinnati dominated a Big 10 team on the road last week winning by 18 over Purdue. In the last decade this team is 8-2 ATS as a home dog, winning outright the past two occurrences. This is the biggest game of the season for the host. The fans will be primed and we expect this game to come down to the wire. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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09-11-16 | Lions v. Colts OVER 50 | 39-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
475 Detroit at Indianapolis Jim Bob Cooter. Not only do we love saying his name the Lions offense took off once he was able to take control after the bye week last season. The Lions averaged 26.1 ppg with Cooter and company calling the plays. With the loss of Calvin Johnson this offense is being dismissed. We feel there will be more value by spreading the ball around. The offensive line looks better but the defense still has concerns. Indy struggled in the preseason and everyone is worried about an offense that looks to be declining. We don’t buy it as the preseason has very little in common with the regular season. While the team did drop from 28.6 ppg to 20.8 keep in mind Luck only played in seven games. With both teams being domed squads and this being a non-conference affair, we look for a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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09-11-16 | Bears +6 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
467 Chicago at Houston We love to go against public perception in the opening week and in this contest we attack it on two fronts. First off we have heard nothing but poor reviews for this Bears team this season. Keep in mind the Bears offense faced the 2nd toughest ranking of defenses last year. The team has finished 28th and 27th in the league in games lost to injury the past two seasons. Those negative expectations help us here as the pointspread doesn’t relate to the true levels of these programs. Houston made a terrible money call in signing the questionable Brock Osweiler to a $72 million deal. He struggles passing the ball long and is exactly the same type of quarterback the Texans have had the past few seasons. Spending all that money on a mediocre QB leaves the rest of the team without depth. Houston had positive ratios in turnovers and sacks last year. But keep in mind that the first two seasons in Houston Bill O’Brien’s teams went just 9-7 and 9-7. This despite playing in the weakest division in the league. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
463 San Diego at Kansas City While we are well aware that the Chargers scored 3, 3 and 7 the last three meetings with the Chiefs, this team is coming in severely underrated this season. The last two years the Chargers ranked 31st and 27th in games lost to injury. The team was just 3-9 in one score games. San Diego finished negatively in turnover margin and sack margin. All this adds up to a solid regression candidate in San Diego. Covering the last decade as a divisional road underdog the Chargers are 10-2-1 against the spread. This is by far the best role for the Chargers. Kansas City rarely throws the ball downfield, ranking last in the NFL a year ago in throwing the ball 15 yards or greater. That really hurts this team in stretching the field. As opposed to the Chargers, Kansas City finished with positive numbers in turnovers and sacks. It was also 5-3 in one score games. We will take the points in this divisional battle. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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09-10-16 | Virginia +24.5 v. Oregon | 26-44 | Win | 100 | 82 h 44 m | Show | |
361 Virginia at Oregon Don’t give up on the Cavaliers after just one game. The Richmond Spiders are a very good FCS program. It was the first game in the Bronco Mendenhall tenure and the future continues to look bright. Mendenhall raved about the new QB who put up excellent stats. A big problem for the Cavaliers was lost fumbles including two by Taquan Mizzell who went through the entire training camp without taking hits. The coach admitted that the lack of pad on pad work contributed to the fumbles. He also pointed out that he would be simplifying the defense this week as he gave his young team too much to worry about in the opener. Keep in mind that Mendenhall has always been an excellent underdog from his days at BYU. His teams performed very well on the road and especially good stepping up in class vs non-conference opposition. He will have his team especially ready here after the general public has lost interest. We expect the Ducks to continue to step back this season. The team only won 9 games a year ago after seven straight years of double digit victories. The Oregon fan base is feeling the same as the team didn’t sell out last weeks contest breaking a long sellout record. While the offense should be potent again the defense allowed 37.5 ppg a year ago. Virginia can move the football against this squad as we expect both teams to exchange scores. Too many points to lay with a program on the decline. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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09-10-16 | Akron +24 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-54 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
329 Akron at Wisconsin You couldn’t ask for a better spot for Akron to take on the Badgers. Not only was Wisconsin looking to avenge a season opening loss to LSU from two years ago. But the game was a historic contest played in Lambeau Field. Even before the game was actual played you could see the excitement in the faces of the Wisconsin players who would step on this historic field to play a football game. After pulling the upset the players celebrated as if winning the national championship. Now with Akron and Georgia State on deck before the Big 10 season gets underway, do we really expect the Badgers to show the same type of emotion? Akron was the top MAC school last year against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry on the season. Even when stepping up in class against Oklahoma the team managed just 3.0 ypc, Pittsburgh was more of the same at 2.8 ypc. Terry Bowden always brings in a lot of transfers which is why this team is always so goo on the lines. We expect the Zips to give the Badgers all it cab handle on Saturday. PLAY AKRON |
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09-10-16 | Central Michigan +21 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 113 h 32 m | Show |
327 Central Michigan at Oklahoma State The Chippewas are going to make us money this year and our first chance to cash is on Saturday. The John Bonamego era started last year with a 7-6 mark and he brings back 16 returning starters after just 9 a season ago. While this isn’t the best team in the MAC it’s the most balanced as the Chips are solid on both sides of the ball and has a possible NFL QB in Cooper Rush behind center. This team is 6-1 as a road dog the last two years and covered by 12 1/2 points last year hosting these Cowboys in the opener. The 24 points Oklahoma scored in last years meeting was just a point more than the 23 it scored against Oklahoma last year, a season low for the Cowboys. Oklahoma State crushed SE Louisiana last week but turnovers were the key. The Cowboys average starting field position was its 46 yard line. Oklahoma State has lost 3 of its last 4 games played including the Sugar Bowl loss to Mississippi. This team doesn’t deserve to be a 3 touchdown favorite here against a solid Central Michigan squad. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN  |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68 | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
303 Louisville at Syracuse Last year the Cardinals allowed 28.8 ppg when playing away from home. Offensively the Cards are explosive with Lamar Jackson behind center. A dual threat QB with loads of talent. Before Dino Babers and his high octane offense moved to Syracuse, he was the head man at Bowling Green. He runs a fast paced offense with as many plays as possible. The faster the better. Before he came to BG the Falcons games averaged 53.7 ppg. In his two years at BG the Falcons games averaged 63.5 and 71.1. He wants to play the same way with the Orangemen. Last year Bowling Green at home had final scores of 72, 86, 69, 100 and 85. We expect this to be a fast paced shootout. PLAY OVER |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
452 Carolina at Denver While the Panthers are still a terrific team the offensive damage they did was against the weakest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL. This team has some concerns after losing Josh Norman in the offseason. This was a team that was 7-1 in one score games last year, we anticipate some regression. The Panthers were also +20 in turnover margin, another regression probability. The team struggled against this defense a year ago and we look for more of the same. Everyone is talking about the big drop-off at quarterback for the Broncos. But last year the team ranked 25th in the NFL in passing efficiency and were unable to throw the ball downfield. As opposed to the Panthers Denver lost the turnover battle by 4 last season. We think the Broncos can surprise this year and we take the points opening night. PLAY DENVER |
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09-05-16 | Rangers -120 v. Mariners | 6-14 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
975 Texas at Seattle The Rangers have owned the Mariners this year and you could see by the looks of the Seattle players in the last series that they are defeated. Camels is in the prime of his career while King Felix has started to slide. He no longer is a power pitcher and he must get by with his years of guile. We have a confident bunch here on a mission with the better starter on the mound. No need to complicate the situation past that. PLAY TEXAS |
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09-03-16 | Texas State +21 v. Ohio | 56-54 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
173 Texas State at Ohio U The Bobcats are guaranteed to win this one, and lose also as both teams come into this encounter with the same nickname. That’s just about all that will be in common here as Texas State has a new coaching staff with Everett Withers taking over. The team only has 10 returning starters but that may not be a bad thing considering the 3-9 record from a year ago. The offense is expected to be varied in a high tempo set. Ohio doesn’t really have anything to go on regarding this Texas State offense, which is a good thing. Ohio was very lucky to go 8-5 a year ago and enter this season a bit overrated in our numbers. This is a team that has only beaten two quality teams combined the past two seasons, Marshall and Northern Illinois. The Bobcats from Ohio are a middling MAC squad that shouldn’t lay this type of number to any FBS squad. Last year this team was even on yards per pass on the season while being beaten on yards per rush 5.0 to 4.3. That doesn’t add up to an 8-5 team or a squad deserving of laying three touchdowns. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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09-03-16 | Hawaii +40 v. Michigan | 3-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
155 Hawaii at Michigan So much has been made of the Hawaii travel schedule going from Australia to Hawaii and then to Michigan. The truth of the matter is the Warriors are well used to long travel trips as they average 8 to 9 hours in flight weekly. In fact, all the talk of the negative travel situation gives us added value. When it comes down to the game, Hawaii has a solid edge as it has a game under its belt, while Michigan still isn’t announcing its starting quarterback. Harbaugh has already said up to 13 freshmen may see the field this year, with this being a great chance to add to its experienced depth. Hawaii DC Kevin Lempa was on the same staff at Boston College as Michigan DC Don Brown. Therefore the Warriors will we well aware of the defense it will face. The Wolverines hype adds to this huge number as we will back Hawaii in a game in which we have a full five points of value. PLAY HAWAII |
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09-03-16 | Boise State v. UL-Lafayette +20 | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
204 Boise State at UL Lafayette The Broncos enter this team with high hopes in the third year with Bryan Harsin in charge. While the team does have 13 returning starters a full 50% of this roster has never taken a snap for the Broncos. The team is talented but depth could be a big problem as the season unfolds. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ are coming in off a poor season, winning just 4 games after four straight 9-4 campaigns. The ULL defense was the problem last year allowing the most points in nearly a decade. But this is a team who is 21-7 straight up at home in the Mark Hudspeth era. The heat and humidity is going to play a huge factor in this game as well as the early start time. Boise State is used to playing at night in cooler weather, that’s the exact opposite of what they will see here. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ have the personnel to trade scores with the Broncos. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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09-02-16 | Army v. Temple -14.5 | 28-13 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
148 Army at Temple Not buying the line move here as we are not as impressed with Army coming into the season as others are. Keep in mind this team was 2-10 last year in the second season of the Jeff Monken era. The two victories came against Bucknell and Eastern Michigan, one of the five worst FBS squads year in and year out. Army just doesn’t have an offense than can move the ball in this matchup. Just 244 yards per game and 22.1 ppg last year for the Black Knights who played a very easy schedule. Temple has gone from 2 wins to 6 and 10 in the three years with Matt Rhule at the helm. This team enters the season off back to back losses to Houston in the AAC Title and Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. You can bet this squad is chomping at the bit to get that taste out of their mouths. Temple has beaten Army six straight times by 21 ppg on average. Covering the past three meetings by 19, 34 1/2 and 15 points. This line is cheap. PLAY TEMPLE |
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09-01-16 | Oregon State +13 v. Minnesota | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
143 Oregon State at Minnesota Gary Anderson is heading into his second season in Corvallis. He managed a 2-10 record the opening season with only 9 returning starters. This year he is up to 13 returners. The offense dropped off 6.7 ppg from the previous season while the defense regressed 5.4 ppg. We look for supreme regression in those numbers this season. Anderson was 2-0 vs Minnesota as coach of Wisconsin, so he knows this program well. Minnesota is getting quite a bit of hype coming off a 6-7 season. But keep in mind the Golden Gophers won only three games at TCF Bank Stadium a year ago. Beating a poor Illinois team by 9, and two MAC teams in Kent State and Ohio by 3 point margins. We like the Gophers this year but this price range is currently our of its league. PLAY OREGON STATE |
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09-01-16 | South Carolina +4.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
141 South Carolina at Vanderbilt Because of off field concerns Steve Spurrier lost interest in the game the last few years on his tenure. In comes a hungry Will Muschamp to pick up the pieces and bring this program back to previous levels. After seven straight winning seasons the Gamecocks managed a 3-9 record a year ago. We expect a rebound season from South Carolina despite only 9 returning starters.To go from beating Vanderbilt 7 straight games by double figures to now being a dog is just a huge overreaction in our eyes. Vanderbilt has won just 7 total games in the last two years under Derek Mason. The team is 4-7 straight up at home vs FBS programs, with two of those victories coming against Old Dominion and Massachusetts. Under Mason the Commodores have averaged 15.2 and 17.2 points. Hard to lay over a field goal with teams that can’t score. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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08-31-16 | Diamondbacks +160 v. Giants | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
903 Arizona at San Francisco Shelby Miller returns to the club after having a terrible season before being sent down. He’s a much better pitcher than he has shown this year and we expect a rebound. It’s even better from a betting standpoint as most of the general public has written him off. But this handicap is more of a play against Matt Moore who threw a career high 133 pitches trying to throw a no-hitter last time out. He really labored hard the last couple innings of that start and it’s sure to affect him here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-30-16 | Padres v. Braves -153 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
956 San Diego at Atlanta Huge starting pitching edge here for the Braves as Julio Teheran runs circles around Edwin Jackson. Jackson did pitch well in his first few returning starts but has been pummeled since. The Braves have the far superior defense, one of the biggest advantages you will ever find. San Diego is extremely poor offensively when taking to the road. A huge dichotomy with the way San Diego hits at home. Atlanta also hits righties much better than the Padres. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-29-16 | Marlins v. Mets +143 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 143 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
904 Miami at NY Mets Jose Fernandez pitches lights out at home as he is nearly unbeatable, but the same cannot be said when he travels. For some reason he’s just not the same pitcher. Good but not nearly as great. The Marlins also don’t hit nearly as well away from home. Rafael Montego was the prized pitching prospect just a couple years ago. He had a taste of the majors but never showed his potential. Now getting a spot start as an afterthought we see extreme value on this young righty. The Mets own the better bullpen, stronger defense and hit well at home. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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08-28-16 | Reds +104 v. Diamondbacks | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
961 Cincinnati at Arizona On a nice little run here after cashing 8 of 9, let’s keep things going with the underrated Cincinnati Reds. While we never like to bet on a hurler named Homer we will make an exception on Sunday. Since coming off the DL Bailey has been better than expected, and his teammates are knocking the cover off the ball. Cincinnati owns the better relief pitching which has been a main reason this Reds squad has gone under the radar. Archie Bradley was highly thought of in the minors but he’s yet to put it all together at the major league level. Money is coming in on the visitor and we firmly agree with this line move. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-27-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers -117 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
904 Chicago at Los Angeles Very cheap price here on the Dodgers at home with a rejuvenated Julio Urias. The youngster struggled out of the gate when first brought up to the Big Show, but has settled down nicely since. He’s been more consistent as of late and he’s really coming into his own. After blowing a late lead yesterday we are very confident of a rebound tonight from the Dodgers. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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08-26-16 | Pirates -122 v. Brewers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
957 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee It’s well publicized that the Pirates have struggled over the years in Milwaukee. But we are willing to buck history with the better team here. The Pirates have a slight edge among starters but have huge advantages offensively. Pittsburgh also hits righties very well on the road, while the Brewers have struggled here against right handed starters. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-25-16 | Braves +160 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 160 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
905 Atlanta at Arizona Matt Wisler returns to the starters role here on Thursday to take on the always inconsistent Diamondbacks. While Arizona does have a bit of an edge between starters, the rest of the intangibles are virtually even. Atlanta is playing much better ball than earlier in the season and the line on this game is much higher than we anticipated. Dogs in this range have been good to us as of late and witnessed by the Orioles yesterday. Let’s take the shot with the dog here who has plenty of bite. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-24-16 | Orioles +154 v. Nationals | 10-8 | Win | 154 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
973 Baltimore at Washington Nice value here on the Orioles who hit righties very well. This is a rival series that means more to the Orioles who lost fans when Washington was given a new franchise. We will gladly take an American League team in this price range in an interleague contest. The teams are matched up pretty evenly and yet the price is a real bargain for the visitor. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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08-23-16 | Phillies +155 v. White Sox | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
929 Philadelphia at Chicago Jake Thompson is another in a long line of talented starters making his way up to the majors this year with the Phillies. While his counterparts have gotten plenty of accolades at this level it wouldn’t surprise to see Thompson being the ace for years to come. Carlos Rodon was considered a stud before joining the big league club, but it hasn’t been easy going for the lefty. While he has shown glimpses Rodon hasn’t put it all together as of yet. We will back the visitor here as we rate these to clubs similar and the tariff is quite high on the host. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-22-16 | Indians -160 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
961 Cleveland at Oakland Carlos Carrasco really showed us something last time out as it was clear he didn’t really have his stuff. But yet he continued to fight throughout the game and give his team a chance for victory. That’s exactly what Carrasco and Kluber bring to this Indians team. The Indians own a huge defensive edge in this game, one of the largest of the season. While many will point to a large starting edge for the Tribe, it’s the bullpen which we feel is just as big of an advantage. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-21-16 | Nationals v. Braves +171 | 6-7 | Win | 171 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
Computer problems on Sunday so no analysis given, sorry. 906 Washington at Atlanta PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-19-16 | Blue Jays v. Indians -121 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
922 Toronto at Cleveland The Indians rake against lefties and here they take on Francisco Liriano having a terrible year and switching leagues. The Indians have been very dangerous at home all season and are a confident bunch in this building. Off a solid come from behind win last night over the White Sox we look for the Tribe to ride that wave again tonight. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-18-16 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
959 Arizona at San Diego Archie Bradley was highly thought of in the minors but in a small sample size in the show he has really struggled. Paul Clemens is a journeyman who wouldn’t even be on the staff if the Padres didn’t clear house at the trade deadline. Neither bullpen rates very highly and we expect both to be used tonight. The Padres return from a long road trip ending in Tampa Bay, and the bullpen has gotten used quite a lot. While San Diego hasn’t hit a lick on the road they have played well offensively at home, averaging 6.5 runs per game this month. PLAY OVER |
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08-15-16 | Marlins v. Reds +118 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
902 Miami at Cincinnati The loss of Stanton for the remainder of the season is a huge blow to this Marlins club that had a real chance of a strong run towards the playoffs. While the team is used to him and his injury past the rest of the roster lacks that powerful threat. David Phelps gets the spot start here we we can’t expect more than five innings here, that puts the pressure on a bullpen that has logged a great amount of innings as of late. Finnegan is a much better pitcher now than early in the season. He should fare well against a Miami team that struggles to hit on the road. Cincy has been a real money maker as of late, no reason why that can’t continue. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-13-16 | Rays +158 v. Yankees | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
913 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees After all the excitement with yesterdays final game for Alex Rodriguez, we don’t expect the home crowd to be quite as electric here. While Tanaka is an excellent starter his strikeout numbers are nowhere near where they were before his injury. The bullpen is also way down after letting the 8th and 9th inning lockdown relievers go. Tampa has the better defense and Matt Andriese is a solid starter. Tampa has hit righties well and we expect this game to go to the more complete Rays. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-12-16 | Mariners +116 v. A's | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
08-10-16 | Padres v. Pirates -157 | 4-0 | Loss | -157 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
956 San Diego at Pittsburgh Huge edges here for the homesteading Pirates. Pittsburgh hits righties much better than do the Padres. The Pirates are a terrific hitting team at home while the Padres struggle scoring on the road. Pittsburgh owns the better defense and the much better bullpen. So it all comes down to the starters. While Ryan Vogelsong isn’t a starter we will back often in the favorite role, we do so here with a play against Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a retread who has never came close to living up to his potential. He has bounced around the league for a decade and continues to be released. Because of a couple of decent starters with the Padres we get tremendous advantage going against him today. We don’t normally lay these type of numbers but we simply cannot pass on the value. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-09-16 | Tigers +101 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
(923) Detroit at (924) Seattle Play: Detroit Tigers Significant starting pitcher edge for the Tigers here, as LeBlanc is clearly the weakest link in the Mariners rotation. Detroit is the better hitting team, especially on the road. The Tigers have a massive edge as they absolutely kill left handed starters. Seattle has the better bullpen but that’s not enough to even this contest up. PLAY DETROIT TIGERS |
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08-08-16 | Braves +145 v. Brewers | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
953 Atlanta at Milwaukee Whalen struggled out of the gate in his first start but settled down as the game went on. He’s a talented starter that the Braves feel will be in intricate part of its future. Milwaukee can’t be trusted as a favorite of this magnitude and the Braves are hitting the ball really well with the addition of Kemp from the Padres. Milwaukee struggles against righties which gives us an additional edge with the dog. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-07-16 | Angels v. Mariners -121 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
924 LA Angels at Seattle Cheap price here for the homesteading Mariners. There is a slight edge on the mound with the starters and LA hits lefties well, but it’s not enough of an edge to look that way. Seattle hits much better at home and this bullpen totally dominates the Angels. Seattle based on recent roster moves is setting up this bullpen to be elite. Mariners are the better team and we get them here at a very cheap price. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-05-16 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -131 | 9-0 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
930 Boston at Los Angeles Cheap number for the Dodgers playing at home. LA hits far better in this park than Boston does on the road, and without the DH that means no Big Papi for the visitor. Despite the season Steven Wright is having we prefer Kasmir on the hill. The bullpen edge for the Dodgers is huge and LA plays the better defense. Boston coming off an extra inning game and traveling sure doesn’t help their cause. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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08-04-16 | Rangers +124 v. Orioles | 5-3 | Win | 124 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas at Baltimore AJ Griffin is an underpriced commodity based on his injury history, missing 2014 and 2015. Did you know his career record is 25-12? He doesn’t blow you away with amazing strikeout numbers, he’s just a solid MLB pitcher, and that’s not sexy Wade Miley is making his first start since being traded to the Orioles. He is 1-6 in his last 7 games started and pitching in this building isn’t as easy as pitching in the AL West. His ERA has gotten higher each of the last three seasons while his K/9 ratio has dropped. Texas as a team is hitting .306 against him this year and .302 last year. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-03-16 | White Sox v. Tigers -120 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
920 Chicago at Detroit Strength on strength here as the Tigers pound left handed starters and Cris Sale is an elite starting pitcher. Sale hasn’t been nearly as dominant as he was out of the gate, yet he’s still being priced too high in our opinion. Michael Fulmer has been everything as advertised and more for Detroit. He has become the most consistent and best starter on the staff. The Tigers edges offensively put this game on our card as we expect the dominant pitcher to be wearing a Tiger’s uniform on Wednesday. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-02-16 | Nationals -148 v. Diamondbacks | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
961 Washington at Arizona It was batting practice for the Nationals yesterday, and we like that situation. The Arizona bullpen is poor and there was a lot of pitches thrown by that bullpen last night. That puts a great deal of pressure on Robbie Ray. Washington is 66-26 as a favorite after having 12 or more hits, and they love hitting lefties. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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07-30-16 | Phillies v. Braves -126 | 9-5 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
904 Philadelphia at Atlanta Decent pitching edge here for the Braves as we prefer Teheran over Hellickson. Philadelphia is a poor hitting team on the road and it struggles against righties. Hellickson is on the trade block right now so it’s possible the Philadelphia management will extend his time on the mound even if he’s not pitching well. PLAY ATLANTA |
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07-29-16 | Astros -130 v. Tigers | 6-14 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
971 Houston at Detroit The Astros have improved all season as the young studs are finally playing up to expectations. The addition of Bergman brings added excitement in the Astros clubhouse and this team is playing very confidently at this time of the season. McHugh is a big starting advantage over Boyd and the Astros have the much better bullpen. Houston hits well against lefties and should knock the young southpaw around. PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-27-16 | Tigers +103 v. Red Sox | 4-3 | Win | 103 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
959 Detroit at Boston Huge pitching edge here for the Tigers as Michael Fulmer has not only been outstanding, but consistent as well. The same cannot be said of his mound counterpart Eduardo Rodriquez. When ER was brought up last season he was terrific, but as the season unfolded and again this year he has struggled. Lefties have a solid edge the first time around the league but when teams get film on him he needs to make adjustments, Eduardo has yet to make those adjustments. The Tigers knock lefties around really well and the Boston bullpen has been a disappointment because of overuse. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-26-16 | Rockies +175 v. Orioles | 6-3 | Win | 175 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
919 Colorado at Baltimore When taking a sizable underdog you go into the game knowing you are at a disadvantage. But the disadvantage in this game simply does not add up to this humongous line. The pitching matchup when counting in the relievers is at best a wash. That puts all the emphasis on the Orioles offense against the Rockies hitters. While Baltimore is better there is no way the advantage is as high as the betting markets. We are getting a major advantage in the line and that’s how a pro grinds out advantages. PLAY COLORADO |
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07-25-16 | A's +121 v. Rangers | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
961 Oakland at Texas Sizable starting pitching edge for the A’s here as Perez in this price range is a go against starter. While Texas owns the relief pitching edge its certainly not enough to make up for the starting pitching disadvantage. Oakland hits lefties well while Texas is basically average teeing off against right handed starters. Nice value here on the underdog. PLAY OAKLAND |
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07-22-16 | Diamondbacks +110 v. Reds | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
905 Arizona at Cincinnati Another chance to go against the Reds in the role of a favorite. Arizona has the edge from a starter perspective and the D’Backs are virtually even in all other handicapping numbers.SportsDataBase.com shows us that Cincinnati is 81-141 with a negative ROI of 17.4% when playing a team with a better record. That ROI jumps to 32.6% if the Reds are playing at home.PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-20-16 | Orioles v. Yankees -158 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
922 Baltimore at NY Yankees The Yanks were good to us last night and we really like the situation they are in again on Wednesday. Huge pitching advantage for the Yankees not only in the starter but also in the bullpen. New York also has the much better defensive play, with the O’s having the slightly better lefty/righty bats in this contest. Pineda’s numbers are not a reflection of the way he has pitched this year. Bad luck has been a major problem as his high BABIP is simply non-sustainable. According to SportsDataBase.com the Orioles are8-31 with a negative 55.7% ROI as a road dog off a road game when playing a team with a worse record. Now 4-14 in that role this season. Baltimore is also 28-64 for a negative 31.9% ROI off a road game in which it lost by 5 or more runs. We simply do not trust Gallardo here and the front end of this Baltimore bullpen. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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07-19-16 | Orioles v. Yankees -108 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
964 Baltimore at NY Yankees Solid starting pitcher edge for the host as Eovaldi is a much better pitcher than his traditional numbers show. The bullpen is a huge edge, especially if this game becomes a high scoring affair. New York has the far better defensive numbers, but Baltimore is the better hitting team. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Orioles are 8-30 as a road dog after a road game when playing a team with a worse record. That’s a whopping 54.5% ROI going against the Birds. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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07-18-16 | Rays +134 v. Rockies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
921 Tampa Bay at Colorado Contrarian play at its finest here as nobody wants any part of Drew Smyly pitching in altitude. But a closer look at his advanced stats show he has pitched much better than his numbers. A poor BABIP and an extremely high HR to FB rate have been the culprits. The Rays have performed much better against lefties this year posting an 11-11 record, as opposed to a horrendous mark against righties. Anderson has been good for the Rockies but Smyly is the better pitcher. With defensive and relief pitching edges we back the Rays here. Especially when you consider Tampa Bay has hit much better on the road. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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07-17-16 | Orioles -109 v. Rays | 2-5 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
967 Baltimore at Tampa Bay Uber prospect Dylan Bundy makes the start today for the O’s. Bundy was highly thought of in baseball circles before Tommy John surgery. He’s been pitching out of the Oriole bullpen as he’s looking to get back to where he was in his minor league career. Bundy has been pitching well in relief, and while he will be on a pitch count here we like him enough to back him on Sunday. The Orioles tee off on righties and Baltimore continues to surprise in the standings. Tampa Bay has been a disappointment and now there is talk of the team being sellers at the trade deadline.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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07-16-16 | Brewers -101 v. Reds | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
905 Milwaukee at CincinnatiWe came up a run short yesterday with our play on the Brewers, but we are back on Milwaukee today. The visitor owns the much better starter and the Reds really struggle against right handed starters. The bullpens and the defense gives us a slight edge and we still have these historical edges. The Reds are 80-140 playing a team with a better record, and 20-45 in that situation at home. Let’s back the Brewers to even up the series.PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-15-16 | Brewers +138 v. Reds | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
955 Milwaukee at CincinnatiCan’t understand the early money coming in on the Reds here. Cincinnati has proven themselves not to be favored over virtually anyone. The Reds are a poor hitting team against righties and the starting pitcher matchup is equally week from both sides.According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com Cincinnati is 79-140 when playing a team with a better record. That’s an 18.2% ROI. They are also 19-45 at home when playing a team with a better record, a whopping 35.9% ROI. Simply put the Reds should in no way be a favorite of this magnitude here, even against Matt Garza.PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-10-16 | Yankees v. Indians -131 | 11-7 | Loss | -131 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
918 New York at Cleveland The 11 inning victory yesterday for the Yankees is costly when looking at the available relief pitchers for today. Betances threw 21 pitches, Miller 35 and Chapman 32. Those were season highs for your 8th and 9th inning relievers. With a weak long and middle relief corps for New York, Tanaka will have to go very deep here for this not to hurt the visitor. Carrasco rates slightly better from the starter standpoint and other than Allen and Hunter the rest of the Tribe bullpen is available. Better bats and a big home field advantage help the Tribe this afternoon. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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07-09-16 | Braves +168 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
979 Atlanta at Chicago The Braves shocked the Sox yesterday as they pounded Chris Sale. We expect that positive momentum to continue on Saturday. Chicago used four pitchers out of the pen and threw 72 pitches in doing so. While the starter edge favors the Sox, the team as a whole has been in a severe down spin. The Braves are 9-6 this year off a game in which its bullpen has allowed multiple runs. Bad teams off a win are 73-75 this year with an ROI of 10.4%. We will take advantage of an inflated line here and back the dog. PLAY ATLANTA |
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07-08-16 | Mariners -106 v. Royals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
927 Seattle at Kansas City Short and sweet. We have a sizable starting pitching edge to go along with the better offense. The defensive and relief pitching angles are virtually even, and the Mariners hit much better against righties than do the Royals. We will back the team who blew a ninth inning lead last night. PLAY SEATTLE |
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07-05-16 | Angels v. Rays -145 | 13-5 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
970 Los Angeles at Tampa Bay Sizable pitching edge for the host as we simply can’t trust Tim Lincecum on the hill. While the Angels own the better bullpen all other advantages are with the host. A significant edge is defensively and with an offense that performs much better in this building. Tampa has also fared better against righties while the Angel offense is less than average on the road. According to SportsDataBase.com the Angels are 19-46 -35.0% ROI as a dog off a road game in which the bullpen allowed multiple runs. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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07-04-16 | A's v. Twins -118 | 3-1 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
922 Oakland at Minnesota Based on the year Nolasco is having this is a huge pitching edge for the Twins. Minnesota owns the much better defense and the other overall stats are a wash. According to SportsDataBase.com the A’s are 19-45 with a -34.2% ROI as a dog when facing an opposing starter with an ERA of over 4.0. The Twins on the other hand are 25-11 as a favorite off a home comeback win. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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07-03-16 | Pirates +140 v. A's | 6-3 | Win | 140 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
977 Pittsburgh at Oakland The Pirates were good to us last night as they outlasted the A’s. We’re going right back with the Bucs here as we feel this starting pitcher matchup is much closer than what it looks like on the surface. Pittsburgh rakes against righties and the A’s have a lineup which has struggled at times with left handers. Too much of a gap between these two in this line as we feel the Pirates have plenty of value tonight. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-02-16 | Pirates +140 v. A's | 4-2 | Win | 140 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
927 Pittsburgh at Oakland Major go against spot here for the A’s who have Rich Hill returning from the DL. The Pirates pound lefties and the price is inflated by throwing an unknown starter. This game is one of those system plays that take advantage of a named pitcher who will be very careful on the mound today. The better hitting Pirates at a nice underdog price is the play today. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-01-16 | Orioles -102 v. Mariners | 2-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
973 Baltimore at Seattle |
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06-30-16 | Cubs -124 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
905 Chicago at New YorkNice time to go against the fading Mets after the Nationals took it to them in a key divisional battle. According to SportsDataBase.com Chicago has been outstanding after winning and never trailing posting a 79-47 record with an 11.5% ROI. This team is also 35-14 with a 17.6% ROI as a favorite after the bullpen went at least an inning without allowing a run. The Chicago bullpen has the edge here and it’s set up perfectly for this series. The starting pitching edge is slight for the host but all other intangibles point toward the Cubs.PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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06-28-16 | Dodgers -131 v. Brewers | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
905 Los Angeles at MilwaukeeThe Dodgers bullpen went 4 innings of shutout ball yesterday which portends well for the visitor tonight. Urias has been outstanding as of late after getting hit hard early on in his first few tastes of the majors. LA is 37-13 as a favorite after allowing 6 hits or less according to SportsDataBase.com. The Dodgers own every edge in this contest with the exception of possibly late inning relief as Jansen had to throw 23 pitches yesterday. Nice price for a team with solid edges all around.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-27-16 | Cardinals v. Royals -115 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
968 St Louis at Kansas City The Cardinals are very good against lefties but Danny Duffy is finally living up to his high praise when coming up in the system. The ratings we use have him clearly the better pitcher here as Wainwright has been slow to come back to his previous form after TJ surgery.According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Royals are 22-11 off a home game i which they permitted 6 or fewer hits. Also, 32-13 off a home game in which they scored 5 or more runs. With Alex Gordon back in the lineup this KC offense is much more dangerous. With the bullpen in good shape after a nice start yesterday we will back the Royals here in this inter league rivalry contest.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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06-26-16 | Mets -140 v. Braves | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
907 NY Mets at Atlanta Amazingly the Braves are just 13-33 after playing in extra innings. That points to a weakened bullpen. It also means the starter the following day has to go deep in the game. With Norris on the hill that’s a major advantage for the Mets. According to SportsDataBase.com New York is 46-17 as a favorite after a game as a road favorite in which it won and never trailed. That points to the strength on this Mets bullpen. New York has advantages across the board in this contest and the line is priced very fairly. Let’s look for Bartolo Colon to provide the betting value we often see with him on the mound.PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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06-25-16 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +113 | 10-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
968 Toronto at Chicago Wrong team favored here in our opinion as Gonzalez is a major upgrade on Dickey when in comes to putting runners on base. The major edge is in bases on balls as Dickey and his knuckleball produce a great deal of walks. With virtually every other category being even the Sox should have been installed as the slight favorite here. In what we consider a pick em game we will gladly take the plus money with the host.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-24-16 | Indians -107 v. Tigers | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
919 Cleveland at Detroit There was a long time when the Tribe couldn’t get over the hill against the Tigers. But that dominance is no longer in play as Cleveland is no longer intimidated by the Motor City.Cleveland owns the clear pitching edge here and the Tigers are coming off an extra inning game in which it used four pitchers for five innings. The defense is also an edge for the visitor and the price is right. It’s not often you get Danny Salazar in this price range.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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