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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -6.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 9 m | Show |
New Mexico Bowl 202 UTSA at New Mexico Tough draw in the first bowl game for the Roadrunners. Not only does UTSA have a first year coach in Frank Wilson, but the team is playing on the New Mexico home field. UTSA has had terrible line play all season posting a -21 net sack number in FBS games. In fact, it had just one positive sack game on the season. New Mexico is a team that will run the ball down your throat and gets stronger as the game progresses. On the season the Lobos have a +14 sack margin, which has been even better as of late. In the last seven games New Mexico has dominated in the trenches with a +14 sack margin. Twice this season the Lobos reached double digits in yards per play, 10.0 vs ULM and 13.5 against Wyoming. UTSA is in for a very physical contest. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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12-16-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 125-121 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
506 Atlanta at Toronto Huge revenge game for the Hawks here who were slaughtered 128-84 the last time in this building. While the effort will be there for Atlanta, the talent is lacking. The Hawks have four new started this year and the chemistry just isn’t there yet. The bench is severely lacking and the guard play has been a problem. That means trouble when facing the Raptors who have one of the most talented backcourts in the league. Toronto is also one of the deepest teams in the NBA. So we have the haves and the have nots here with a line that’s cheap considering the matchups. PLAY TORONTO |
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12-15-16 | UCF v. George Washington -3 | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
712 Central Florida at George Washington Golden Knights starting point guard BJ Taylor is out for the game tonight. This will be his third straight missed game. in his absence the team beat Maryland Eastern Shore and lost at home by 9 to Penn. In that game Central Florida only managed 49 points on its home floor. Taylor isn’t the only injury concern as depth in the backcourt is a problem right now. George Washington started the year behind the eight ball without its top player who remains out with an injury. But in the meantime the team is getting better game by game and has enough to beat this shorthanded club at home. PLAY GEORGE WASHINGTON |
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12-14-16 | UC-Irvine v. Nevada -11 | 69-76 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
536 Cal Irvine at Nevada Tough scheduling situation for the Anteaters who face its third tough opponent in a four game stretch. Losses to Arizona by 22 and St Marys by 31 show this team has a long way to go when stepping up in class. Nevada returns home to an undefeated site after knocking off Washington on the road on Sunday. It’s also $2 beer night in Reno which will pack the arena with partying Wolfpack fans. Nice home edge here for the host who has already knocked off the two major conference foes it played. A strong RPI and a solid home court have us laying the chalk. PLAY NEVADA |
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12-14-16 | Pistons v. Mavs +5.5 | 95-85 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
516 Detroit at Dallas The Pistons have been very inconsistent offensively as of late scoring just 79 against the Sixers last time out and 77 vs Charlotte last Wednesday. Tough to lay points on the road when you can’t score the basketball. Detroit also has struggled this season when it was clearly the better team. When installed as the better squad by 6 points or more Detroit is just 1-3 on the season. The current line says the Pistons are 8 1/2 points better on a neutral court. Dallas has held its own against this strength of club and comes into this contest off its best outing of the season. That 20 point victory over the Nuggets will propel the host here as the Mavericks take this to the wire. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-12-16 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
504 Milwaukee at Toronto Third game in four nights for the Bucks who faded late the last two games and lost to Washington and Atlanta. Milwaukee has an extreme disadvantage in the backcourt here as the Bucks guards are just too slow to guard Toronto. As much as we liked Matthew Dellavedova from his time in Cleveland he really struggled when playing Toronto. The Raptors have won 12 of 13 meetings with the Bucks and haven’t played since Friday. Milwaukee has struggled when playing teams of Toronto’s strength while the Raptors have made money against teams of Milwaukee’s ilk. PLAY TORONTO |
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12-11-16 | Chargers +1 v. Panthers | 16-28 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
107 San Diego at Carolina Chargers are +13 explosive plays on the season and +5 over the last month compared to Carolina. The Chargers have played with heart all season with a respectable 2-4 spread mark when losing the turnover battle, Carolina is 1-6 ATS. Carolina went to the Super Bowl last year winning 15 of 16 during the regular season. Now out of the playoffs off an embarrassing 40-7 loss on National Television against Seattle last Sunday. The Panthers laid down in that game and we expect more of the same here. Carolina has played four straight games decided by a field goal before last week. The dam has finally broke. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns +5.5 | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
112 Cincinnati at Cleveland The Bengals have won 12, 10, 11 and 10 games the last four seasons. Right now Cincinnati sits at 4-7-1 on the season. Coming off its best all-around game of the year and with hated rival Pittsburgh on deck, do you really think this team is worried about the winless Browns? Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland by margins of 14, 34 and 21 points the past two seasons. Cleveland is 0-12 and coming off its bye week. You will never find a team more motivated than a winless team off a bye. RGIII is expected to start for the Browns on Sunday, but regardless of the quarterback the team needs to do a better job of keeping the QB upright. The good news is that Cincinnati isn’t overly strong in the trenches and Cleveland has a chance to keep this competitive. The Browns have two covers on the year against Miami and Tennessee, two teams very similar to the Bengals. We expect Cleveland to take this one to the wire! PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-11-16 | Vikings v. Jaguars +3 | 25-16 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
120 Minnesota at Jacksonville The Vikings have lost four straight road games by margins of 3, 6, 10 and 11 points. The team has scored over 20 points just once in the last two months. Jacksonville owns a season long explosive play advantage over Minnesota by 10 and by 4 over the last month. This game features the biggest turnover discrepancy in the entire league. Minnesota is +13 on the year and the Jags are -18. That’s a whopping 31 turnover differential between these two clubs. While interceptions are not a random occurrence, fumbles are. So we should see some regression in those turnover stats. The Jags have played some similar offensive squads this season and held them in check defensively. Denver 20, Houston 24, Kansas City 19, Chicago 16 and Baltimore 19. We look for a low scoring affair with the Jags surprising the Vikings. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-10-16 | Kings v. Jazz -6 | 84-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
518 Sacramento at Utah Kings went down to the wire in a hard fought 103-100 loss last night hosting the Knicks. This is the third game in four days for the Kings, all in different cities. Sacramento has lost four of five recently with the lone win coming against a banged up Dallas squad. Playing the second of a back to back in elevation isn’t a key to success. Utah is well rested having played just once since Wednesday. The team is starting to peak having won 7 of 9 heading into this contest. With the next game scheduled for Wednesday Utah can go all out tonight to gain the victory. PLAY UTAH |
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12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
714 Indiana at Dallas Fifth straight road game for the Pacers who return home tomorrow to host the Blazers. These two went to overtime in the season opener with Indiana winning 130-121. Dallas is playing shorthanded right now with four key pieces remaining on the sideline. That said this team has been competitive all season and we expect the Mavs to battle tonight. Off an embarrassing 31 point loss here to Sacramento on Wednesday you know we will get the best out of the host. The only other blowout loss this season came by 38 at Cleveland and Dallas followed that up with an outright upset win, covering the spread by 15 1/2 points. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-07-16 | Pacers v. Suns +5 | 109-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
718 Indiana at Phoenix Third game in four nights for the Pacers who were run out of the building two nights ago in Oakland. Off a 36 point loss you would expect Indiana to come out fighting, but the team is only 5-5 on the season off a loss in which it failed to cover. Indiana is only 2-7 straight up on the road this year and we don’t trust them here in this price range. Phoenix showed a lot of heart last night coming back against the Jazz. The Suns trailed that game badly in the third quarter and came all the way back to take a late lead. While the team eventually lost, we think that game brings positive momentum. PLAY PHOENIX |
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12-04-16 | Panthers +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -101 | 46 h 44 m | Show |
375 Carolina at Seattle So much of what we have read and heard about this game is playoff revenge for Seattle. The Seahawks are getting healthier and now the players can’t wait to avenge the loss to the Panthers. But keep in mind Carolina was played Seattle better than anyone the past few seasons. Not only did Carolina win at home 31-24 in the playoffs, it won 27-23 in Seattle in the regular season. The teams played each of the three previous seasons with final margins of 4, 5 and 4 points. So just because Seattle has revenge does not mean this team can cover a spread in this range. On the season these two are equal in explosive plays breaking exactly even on the season. Over the last month Carolina has a +3 explosive play advantage. Since its bye week on October 9th Seattle has played seven games. In those games Seattle has scored 145 points and surrendered 133. The Seahawks were + 6 in turnovers in those games and favored in all but two. This team just isn’t as good as previous editions and Seattle continues to be an overrated squad. We went against Seattle last week vs the Bucs, we do the same here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-04-16 | Redskins +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
371 Washington at Arizona It’s not often that you get the clearly better team catching points. But that’s the case here as the betting public has been very slow to react to how poorly this Arizona team has played this year. On the season when looking at explosive plays Washington is +10 while Arizona is +2. Over the last month these teams are exactly equal. Washington is playing its second of three straight road games, and this is a divisional sandwich. The Redskins will also be without key receiver Reed on Sunday. Those are two big negatives, but not enough to keep us off the Skins here. In the last ten games Washington has lost just three games in regulation, twice to first place Dallas by margins of 4 and 5 points, and at first place Detroit by 3. This team is in every game it plays, and is a solid 2-2 ATS when losing the turnover battle. Simply put this team gives it all every week. The same cannot be said about the Cardinals who had much higher expectations coming into the season. Arizona is 0-5 ATS when losing the turnover battle. It’s also 0-4 on the year as an underdog or a favorite of -3 or less. Those stats are a clear indication of a lack of heart. In a game where the likely outcome is the team that wins gets the cover, who do you trust? PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-04-16 | Bills +3 v. Raiders | 24-38 | Loss | -100 | 41 h 24 m | Show | |
In the afternoon starts we have isolated a game in which we feel we have a sizable advantage that hasn't been counted on in the betting line. In fact, we feel we have two teams going in opposite directions. Join us on Sunday as we extend our 23-11 and 93-57 overall winning runs. |
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12-04-16 | Texans +6.5 v. Packers | 13-21 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 14 m | Show | |
355 Houston at Green Bay We haven’t been a fan of the Texans at all this season, but you can’t help but like Houston here. Sure the offense has struggled all season but this defense continues to play outstanding football. Only once all season has this club permitted more than 27 points and it that game the yards per played allowed was just 5.1. Houston has been very unlucky in turnovers this year with a -9 margin right now. Osweiller has been a terrible signing, just like we said before the season started. But this defense is why we like the Texans here. Green Bay just played three straight games on the road and 4 of its last 5 contests. That can take a lot out of a team, especially one playing on a short week. The Packers have one less game to prepare coming off the MNF win over Philadelphia. The lookahead like coming into that game was Green Bay by 4, now because of the win the Packers are laying a much higher number. We weren’t overly impressed by the Packers Monday night, more disappointed in the Eagles who have now lost 4 of 5. Plenty of value here on the Texans as this line is simply too inflated. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 35 m | Show |
333 Penn State & Wisconsin in Indianapolis Much prefer the red hot Nittany Lions here who have produced an outstanding 3.0 explosive plays per game average, as opposed to Wisconsin’s +1.2 per game advantage. Over the last month Penn State has outperformed the Badgers by 14 explosive plays. Penn State struggled in the trenches through the opening month of the season with a negative two sack margin. Since that time Penn State has a + 15 margin in sacks. Better line play is one of the reasons why this team has put up scoring numbers of 45, 39, 45, 41 and 62 points down the stretch. Wisconsin has relied on forcing turnovers the second half of the season, with a +11 margin the past four games. In those four games the yards per play numbers for the Badgers were not overly impressive. Despite playing the likes of Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern, the ypp numbers were 0.7, 0.3, 1.4 and minus 0.3. Penn State is a strong 2-2 ATS on the season when losing the turnover battle. Wisconsin better rely on more than turnovers to win this Big10 Championship. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-03-16 | Georgia State +6 v. Idaho | 12-37 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 40 m | Show | |
321 Georgia State at Idaho The line is dropping as we write this and we agree with the movement. On the course of the season Georgia State is +0.7 explosive plays per game while Idaho is -1.9 per contest. Over the past four games the Panthers have a +7 explosive play edge. Georgia State has an extra week to prepare after a home win over Georgia Southern. In fact, this team hasn’t had to leave Atlanta since October 29th at South Alabama. The Panthers are fresh which isn’t the case very often this time of year. Idaho is off a 38-31 victory over South Alabama. The Vandals are riding a rare three game winning streak. After winning 4, 1, 1, 1 and 2 games the past five seasons, Paul Petrine seems to have Idaho on an uptick. The problem is that the Vandals are 3-7 in yards per play analysis this year, and this team isn’t used to expectations. This is only the 10th game since 2011 the Vandals have been favored against an FBS opponent. We will take the points with the Panthers as this one goes down to the wire. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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12-03-16 | Oklahoma State +11 v. Oklahoma | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
317 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma These two teams are much closer in talent than this current line is showing. On the season the Sooners have a +1.9 explosive play advantage, while the Cowboys sit at +1.5. Over the last four games Oklahoma State has a +6 margin over Oklahoma. Keep in mind that while the Cowboys have two official losses on the season, the defeat against Central Michigan was later ruled an officials mistake. The only other defeat was at Baylor in the first road game of the season . The road team has won outright the last three meetings in this series, and the past two meetings in Norman produced three point overtime finals. Oklahoma is up 7 net turnovers over the last five games which has helped the team go undefeated over that span. But even with that turnover advantage the Sooners are just 3-2 ATS. On the season the Sooners are 2-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while the Cowboys sit at 2-1 on the year. As mentioned earlier this line is inflated and we will gladly take the visitor here with35 point home field revenge from a year ago. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-03-16 | Temple +3 v. Navy | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 33 m | Show |
325 Temple at Navy Tough to go against the red hot Owls here in an underdog role. On the season Temple is +2.5 explosive plays per game while Navy sits at 0.2. Over the last month Temple is +19 explosive plays compared the Navy. Temple has cashed 10 straight games heading into this contest, but the Midshipmen are off offensive performances of 75 and 66 points. Temple has its bye on November 12th, while Navy hasn’t had a break since September 24th. The last four Owl opponents produced 3.7, 3.1, 3.3 and 3.8 yards per play. Navy the past three weeks have 10.5, 8.1 and 7.0 yards per play from the offense. So it’s a red hot offense against a red hot defense, something has to give. While Navy has won 6 of 7 as of late, the yards per play stats show a different story. Since October 1st Navy has lost the ypp battle in 6 of 8 games with the only wins coming against SMU and Memphis. We would much rather trust this Temple team who has won the ypp battle 8 of its last 9 games. Defense wins over offense on Saturday. And the huge Army/Navy matchup is on deck for the Midshipmen. PLAY TEMPLE |
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12-02-16 | Ohio +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
303 Ohio U & Western Michigan in Detroit The Bobcats biggest loss on the season was by a margin of 9 points at Tennessee. This is a team that has been competitive in every game played and we don’t expect anything to be different come Friday. In the last ten games against FBS opposition the Bobcats held every opponent to 28 points or less. Even in games in which Ohio U lost the turnover margin this defense has permitted 27, 10, 27 and 3 points. Ohio U has great line play with a + 21 sack margin on the season. Last weeks game against Toledo was considered the must have game for Western Michigan. While the Broncos won by 20 it lost the yards per play battle 8.4 to 6.1. It was a +3 turnover margin which led to the WM victory. Western has beaten Ohio by margins of 35 and 21 points the past two seasons, so we can see the Broncos having a bit of a letdown here. Between beating Toledo last week and a possible New Years Day bowl, this game against Ohio U is a flat spot for the Broncos. Keep in mind that ESPN came to Kalamazoo the week before against Buffalo and we can see how Western Michigan would overlook the opposition here. The advantages of turnover margin and sack advantage will not be extreme against this Ohio U squad. Look for a much closer game here than projected. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-30-16 | Hawks v. Suns +5.5 | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
518 Atlanta at Phoenix The Hawks have dropped 6 of 7 as of late and have lost three straight on this road trip. Atlanta went all out in a five point loss at Golden State on Monday. This is the third game in four nights and sixth in eight days for Atlanta. Phoenix on the other hand have had the last two days off and have dropped three straight at home. The Suns haven’t played a back to back game since the 19th. With trips to Golden State and Utah on deck this is the game the Suns will go all out. Huge scheduling edge here for Phoenix as a sizable home dog. PLAY PHOENIX |
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11-29-16 | Clippers -12.5 v. Nets | 122-127 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
703 LA Clippers at Brooklyn The Clippers spoke about the lack of intensity last time out in Indiana, the second of back to back losses for Los Angeles. The team scored an embarrassing 70 points against Indiana. There is a huge point guard edge tonight for the Clips as the Nets continue to play without starting PG Jeremy Lin. With the coaching change in Brooklyn the staff wants this team to get out and run, which is great for the team with the better talent, Los Angeles. More possessions means more points which works out well for the favorite. Los Angeles really needs an impressive win before heading to Cleveland on Thursday. It’s blowout time for the Clippers. PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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11-28-16 | 76ers v. Raptors -15 | 95-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
504 Philadelphia at Toronto No Embiid tonight for the Sixers who are playing the second of a back to back and third in four days. Philadelphia went all out yesterday to upset the World Champs and now will be without its best player. Toronto is coming off a successful road trip winning 3 of 5 including back to back wins over Houston and Milwaukee. This game starts a six game homestead and the team is off a home loss last time here to the Warriors. With back to back western conference teams up next the Sixers get the Raptors full attention. PLAY TORONTO |
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11-27-16 | Seahawks v. Bucs +6 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
268 Seattle at Tampa Bay Really tough scheduling spot here for the Seahawks. Off Philadelphia, New England and Buffalo on Monday Night Football. With Carolina on Sunday Night Football, Green Bay, Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football and Arizona on Christmas Eve ahead. This is by far the least important game for Seattle until the final week of the season at San Francisco. The Seahawks are really beat up defensively this week and we can easily see the team using bench players on Sunday. Tampa Bay on the other hand are as healthy as the team has been all season. Tampa Bay is on a 4-2 straight up run with one of the losses coming in overtime to Oakland. Tampa struggled early but this is is underrated right now. Plenty of value on the home dog. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-26-16 | Tennessee -7.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 34-45 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
11-26-16 | Michigan State v. Penn State -12 | Top | 12-45 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
160 Michigan State at Penn State Not buying into the Spartans improvement as this team has lost outright to Maryland and Illinois in the past five games. Michigan State is -11 in sacks on the season while Penn State is up 12 sacks in just the past seven games. We expect the Nittany Lions to dominate the line play on both sides of the ball. And Penn State has extra motivation off losses by margins of 39 and 27 points the last two years. PLAY PENN STATE |
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11-26-16 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -8 | Top | 55-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
214 Mississippi State at Mississippi This line has really surprised us. We have a bigger disparity between our line and the current line on this game than any other this weekend. On the season Ole Miss has a 1.9 explosive play advantage between these two, and over the last month its a +23 advantage for the Rebels. Ole Miss has won 3 of the last 4 with the lone loss coming in overtime in 2013. The Bulldogs over the past seven games have given up an average of 39.7 points per game. Mississippi has played the toughest schedule in the country this year. Games against Florida State, Alabama, Georgia, Memphis, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. You can understand how this team has underperformed on the scoreboard. But after an embarrassing loss last week at Vanderbilt you can be sure Hugh Freeze will have his team fired up for this one. Now 13-8 ATS here off a straight up loss in his tenure at Ole Miss, Freeze and company win this by double digits. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-26-16 | Kentucky +26 v. Louisville | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
175 Kentucky at Louisville Huge one way rivalry here for the Wildcats who are really playing well as of late. Covering 6 of 7 heading into this contest with the one pointspread defeat coming by 1/2 a point to Georgia. The Cardinals have won five straight in this series but we don’t expect the same type of emotion from Louisville. This team now not only is out of the final four discussion, but the conference championship is now an afterthought after getting blown out at Houston. Over the past seven games Louisville is -19 in sacks. Not the type of number we want when backing a favorite of this magnitude. Don’t laugh but we expect this one to come down to the wire. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-25-16 | Arizona State v. Arizona +3 | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show | |
142 Arizona State at Arizona Wrong team favored here in our eyes as the Sun Devils have taken a major tumble. The line play which was so good earlier in the season has really fallen off. The last two weeks Arizona State lost the sack battle by a combined 16 sacks! That’s almost unheard of. Granted Utah and Arizona are far better defensively than the Wildcats, but that’s even more of a concern as a road favorite. Over the last months the Wildcats own a +4 explosive play advantage over the Sun Devils, and the season totals are much the same. It’s not often you will find a road favorite that has lost five straight games. In fact, Arizona State has dropped eight straight in the yards per play category. Arizona has dropped 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series, and the Wildcats are having a poor season. But that can all turn around by beating Arizona State here and keeping them from becoming bowl eligible. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-25-16 | Texas Tech +5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 54-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
139 Texas Tech at Baylor The Red Raiders enter this game of an absolutely embarrassing loss at Iowa State. That broke a four game winning streak in the series, and marked the lowest offensive output in any game since 2011. All the quotes out of Lubbock suggest the team is excited to put that game behind them, and beat the hell out of the downtrodden Bears who crushed them last year 63-35. Baylor is simply put a dumpster fire right now with all the off-field issues taking over this program. Baylor has dropped four straight games and the offense is nowhere near as potent as in prior seasons. Over the last month Texas Tech has a +4 explode play advantage over the Bears and we actually have Texas Tech rated as the favorite here. Can’t understand the line move for a team that has not won the penalty advantage in any game, and is -6 in sacks the last month. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-25-16 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -7 | Top | 35-55 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
118 Toledo at Western Michigan Now that we’ve had some line movement towards the dog we will step in and lay the points with the Broncos. Toledo has been impressive on the road this year but other than the trip to BYU the opponents have been less than stellar. The coaching edge also favors the host here as Jason Candle is in his first year while PJ Fleck will be highly sought after following this season. This is also the ninth straight game for the visitor while Western had a bye just two weeks ago. In looking at explosive plays Western Michigan has been dominant. Up 2.7 per game as opposed to Toledo’s 0.4. Over the last month the Broncos have a +12 advantage over the Rockets. Western Michigan hasn’t lost the turnover battle in any game this year and have won the yards per play battle in 10 straight games. The Broncos are the clear class of this league and it will show on the field on Friday. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-25-16 | TCU v. Texas -3 | Top | 31-9 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
128 TCU at Texas The Horned Frogs were highly thought of in the betting marketplace before the season. But I, along with many others were simply wrong about TCU. The defense has been pretty good but this offense has only surpassed last years average points of 42.1 just twice all season. While Gary Patterson has been magical off a bye posting a 24-12-1 ATS mark in his career. In two games after byes this season TCU lost by margins of 24 and 25 points. Losing ATS by a combined 49 1/2 points. This will be an extremely emotional game for the host. Charlie Strong is coaching his last game in Austin after losing outright at Kansas last week. While his won/loss record here has been a disappointment, he is beloved by his players. There is no doubt in my mind that the Longhorn players will leave everything on the field in this game. These type of contests don’t come up very often. But in retrospect the club with the added emotion has great success. PLAY TEXAS |
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11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions -2.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
108 Minnesota at Detroit The Vikings are 6-4 ATS on the season which is good, but this team has yet to lose a turnover battle in any game. With that type of turnover luck you would assume a much better spread mark than what the Vikings have achieved. The Minnesota offense has been the problem, especially in the first half of games. The Vikings have lost the first half yards per play battle in five straight games by margins of 0.7, 0.4, 1.5, 5.2 and 0.4. The offensive line problems have also come into play lately with a -11 margin in those five games since the bye week. Detroit counters with a 5-4-1 spread record with a +2 turnover advantage on the season. The Lions defense is peaking allowing 19, 16, 20 and 17 points the past four games. Detroit owns a +8 explosive play advantage in this matchup as well. The home teams in these early week games have an advantage, and Detroit by the numbers is the slightly better team. Therefore laying less than a touchdown here to a team that needs turnovers to compete is the way to go. PLAY DETROIT |
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11-23-16 | Thunder +2.5 v. Kings | 101-116 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
723 Oklahoma City at Sacramento The scheduling spot favors the Kings here but we would rather side with the Thunder who we feel should be favored. Oklahoma City fought hard last night in LA but came up short because of a Lakers buzzer beating shot. While the Thunder played last night the Kings have been resting after a Sunday victory over Toronto. Sacramento changed the starting lineup in that one and had success. Using a smaller group to start the game. Cohesiveness is extremely important in a game with five players knowing each others abilities. While it worked against the Raptors, the Thunder will not be surprised. Let’s back Oklahoma City here after that poor result last night in Los Angeles. PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY |
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11-22-16 | Ball State v. Miami (OH) -7 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
104 Ball State at Miami Ohio Last game of the season for the Cardinals who are not eligible to go bowling. The team is -1.8 explosive plays a game as the offense has struggled to throw the ball downfield. Defensively Ball State has allowed every FBS opponent 21 points or more this season. Turnovers have been a problem with a -10 margin on the season. Nothing that we have read points to any special meaning for the Cardinals here. Miami Ohio lost the first six games of the season but are now undefeated with Gus Ragland behind center. Last year and this year combined Ragland has a 15 to 0 touchdown to interception ratio. The defense has been solid all year but now the offense is playing with confidence. The last four games the Redhawks have produced 35, 37, 28 and 40 points. Miami can win the MAC East with a victory here and a loss by Ohio U tonight against a banged up Akron team. Regardless of what happens in Athens, this Miami team is on the rise. Lay the cheap number with the Redhawks. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-21-16 | Texans +6 v. Raiders | 20-27 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
475 Houston & Oakland in Mexico City While Oakland is coming off a bye we’re not sure thats a positive for the Raiders. The team is riding a three game winning streak and feeling good about itself. The local fans are patting the team on the back and the playoffs are in range for the first time in years. Upon closer inspection we find that the Raiders are 1-8 on the season in yards per play. The team has been very fortunate in turnovers, which is a major reason for its success. This is also the largest spread of the season in Raiders games, as every other contest Oakland was either favored by 4 or less or an underdog. Houston had a bye just two weeks ago before beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville, so the rest factor is nonexistent. The Texans have already played the likes of New England, Minnesota and Denver away from home, so its battle tested. While Oakland has been fortunate with turnovers the Texas have not, at -5 on the season. The Texans are 3-4-2 on the year when breaking down yards per play. With the 14 turnover advantage for the Raiders here we expect that number to normalize. Houston does have a +6 explosive play advantage over Oakland which helps if the Texans fall behind. We feel this line is 2 1/2 to 3 points too high, and the location would hinder the team coming off a bye and feeling fat and sassy. PLAY HOUSTON |
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11-20-16 | Titans +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 58 m | Show |
451 Tennessee at Indianapolis The Colts have beaten the Titans ten straight times heading into this contest including a 34-26 win in Tennessee back in October. But we expect that dominance to come to an end on Sunday. Indy should come out of the bye fat and happy after pounding the Packers on the road. But this team has only won twice all season in yards per play as the 4-5 record is a bit misleading. The major problem for the Colts is poor line play. When looking at team sacks Indy is -16 on the season, including -11 the past six games. If you can’t control the lines you better have the ability to create explosive plays. But that’s another sore spot for the Colts as Indy is -16 in explosive plays on the season. Tennessee on the other hand is +15 on the year, a whopping 31 explosive play advantage over Indy. While Tennessee is 5-5 on the year, it is 6-3-1 in yards per play. So while the Colts are not as good as its record the Titans are actually better. Getting the points with the better team here is just too good to pass up as we expect Tennessee to win going away. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-20-16 | Bears +7.5 v. Giants | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 46 h 51 m | Show |
457 Chicago at New York Giants In a battle of two mistake prone quarterbacks we will gladly take the inflated number with the Bears. Chicago has a -5 deficit in turnovers on the season but the Giants at -8 are even worse. The Bears are 4-4-1 in yards per play, it’s been the turnovers which have killed this team all year. Now facing another turnover machine in Eli Manning the Bears have a real shot at the outright win here. New York is 5-3-1 in yards per play but are at a -10 disadvantage in explosive plays vs Chicago. Playing on a short week after a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati, we can see the Giants coming into this contest overconfident. After facing Los Angeles in London and beating divisional rival Philadelphia, followed by the MNF contest, it’s easy to see NY struggling for motivation here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-19-16 | Air Force v. San Jose State +10.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show |
414 Air Force at San Jose State Very tough scheduling situation for the Falcons here who are playing its third road game in the last four weeks. With a Friday showdown with Boise State on deck. Air Force has underperformed the last couple months having lost ATS in 5 of 6 contests. The lone spread victory was against Army in winning the Commander in Chief Trophy. Air Force beat San Jose State by 21 last year so there is little motivation here. San Jose State has performed better over the last month in explosive plays, despite facing the tougher of the two schedules. Over the last three games the Spartans played Boise State and San Diego State, the two top teams in the Mountain West Conference. San Jose also is coming off a needed bye after falling to the Boise State team 45-31 in a game it won the yards per play stat. San Jose State really struggled out of the gate but this team is starting to find itself, and best of all its doing so under the publics eye. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +2.5 | Top | 56-28 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |
342 Oklahoma at West Virginia As well as the Sooners are playing winning seven straight games heading into this week, the list of teams it has beaten all have major flaws. The best two teams on the conference schedule are West Virginia and Oklahoma State, which is the same two teams it ends the season against. A telling sign when handicapping football is how teams do when losing the turnover battle. Oklahoma is 2-4 when that happens, which is about what you would expect. West Virginia on the other hand is 3-1 when losing the turnover battle. The only team better is the consensus best team in the nation, Alabama who is a perfect 4-0. Backing these type of teams gives you a full game of intensity, something the Sooners have lacked all season. The Mountaineers are on an 11-1 straight up run at home, yet have been installed as the underdog here. While Oklahoma is up 2.4 explosive plays per game to West Virginia and its 2.0, the Mountaineers have been better over the last month. We think the wrong team is favored here. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-19-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Charlotte +4.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
344 Middle Tennessee State at Charlotte Huge drop-off for the Blue Raiders at quarterback with Brent Stockstill on the sidelines. Since John Urzua has taken over the yards per attempt have dropped from 7.7 to 6.0 and he’s already thrown more interceptions in 81 attempts to Stockstill 363. The yards per game has dropped nearly 150 per game. Over the last month the explosive plays have been almost exactly the same as that of the 49ers. Charlotte has been an improving team despite the loss last week against Rice. It was the first time Charlotte had been installed as a favorite and it couldn’t handle the pressure. With this being the final home game for the 49ers we feel the team has turned the corner and is capable of pulling off another upset. Over the last five games this team has led at the half, and in the game it trailed the 49ers won 27-24. Middle Tennessee State had scored 42, 51 and 43 points before the QB change, 17 and 25 since. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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11-19-16 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State +3 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
404 Georgia Southern at Georgia State Wrong team favored in this one as Georgia State is on the upswing and its going unnoticed. The Panthers have dropped four straight on the scoreboard but when you look closer this team has been just a play or two from victories. Last week it lost to ULM despite having an 8.3 to 5.4 yards per play advantage. In fact, despite a 1-8 overall record the Panthers have held a ypp advantage in four of the last five games. Over the last month they are right there with this opponent in explosive plays. Georgia Southern enters this one having lost six of its last 7 contests. The only victory came by 3 at New Mexico State in a game it lost the yards per play stat. In looking back at how these teams did this season in the betting markets we see that Southern is at 2-7 while State is 5-4. That tells us that the Eagles simply do not deserve to be favored here. After back to back nine win seasons the betting public still considers this team as a powerhouse, it’s obviously no longer true. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma State +4.5 v. TCU | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
407 Oklahoma State at TCU The Cowboys have won 3 of the 4 meetings since the Horned Frogs entered the Big12 Conference. Oklahoma State has won six straight games entering this showdown Knocking off the likes of West Virginia and Texas Tech, two teams the Horned Frogs have lost to in the last three weeks. When looking at explosive plays over the last month and the full season Oklahoma State is superior. When losing the turnover battle the Cowboys are an excellent 2-1 ATS while the Frogs are 0-2 ATS, a telling stat that we like to use when judging team character. TCU is getting a lot of value out of two things. One is the record of Gary Patterson off a bye, which is now 24-13-1. But that wasn’t the expected positive a few weeks ago off a bye before playing West Virginia, a 34-10 loss. The other supposed advantage was a 62-22 win over Baylor before the bye. But as we have seen this Bears team is a complete disaster right now with all the legal battles and players jumping ship. We actually have the Cowboys graded out as a 3 point favorite here, and the 7 point differential in our eyes is a gift. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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11-18-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati +7.5 | 34-7 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
316 Memphis at Cincinnati Just can’t trust this Memphis defense as a sizable road favorite here. Three of the last four games the Tigers permitted 49, 59 and 42 points. Memphis is very weak on the lines with a -9 sack margin on the season. In fact, only twice all year have the Tigers won the sack battle. Cincinnati has been a big underachiever this year but this is the spot to back the Bearcats. This team has double revenge against Memphis and the Tigers have a more important game on deck against Houston to end the season. Memphis has lost to the Cougars the past three seasons. We only made this line 4, so plenty of value on the home dog here in its home finale. Cincinnati is 29-8 straight up in Nippert Stadium the past six seasons. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-17-16 | Arkansas State +8 v. Troy | 35-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
313 Arkansas State at Troy Since the first bye of the season the Red Wolves have been on a run, winning five straight games and cashing each ticket. They catch Troy off that huge win over Appalachian State , who is sure to have some type of a letdown here. Now that Troy entered the poll at 25 after that win, we can see a team that’s not used to that type of success being a bit full of themselves here. On the season and covering the past month Arkansas State has a slight edge in explosive plays, which makes them a dangerous underdog tonight. We made this line a good four points shorter and the sharp money early in the week agreed. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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11-17-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Panthers | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
309 New Orleans at Carolina Major concerns here for a Panthers team who is off a devastating loss to the Chiefs. After blowing a 17-0 lead its hard to imagine that there is much left in the tank for this team who went 15-1 last season and played in the Super Bowl. The Panthers have been turnover prone and Cam Newton has really struggled under pressure all season. The team lately has really struggled with penalties having 18 more than the opposition the past four games. That stat is a sign the concentration level has faded for this club with higher expectations. The Saints found its own way to lose a game in the final seconds last week against the Broncos. But the main reason was a -2 turnover differential. The Saints had five sacks more than the Broncos which doesn’t fare well for the Panthers squad having troubles protecting the quarterback. While the defense is always a concern the Saints offense has been extremely potent this season. Even in the Carolina 15-1 season from a year ago the Saints were very competitive losing by only 3 and 5 points. We look for New Orleans to get over that hump here. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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11-16-16 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
307 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan With news of the quarterback change a Northern Illinois the line has dropped three points during the week. That’s way too much of an adjustment in our eyes as the change is at most a single point. Keep in mind that the Huskies lost its true starter early in the season and these two signal callers were rated equal at that point. Another reason for the Eastern Michigan love is that the Eagles are now bowl eligible while the Huskies won’t be bowling for the first time in nine years. We actually find that to be a detriment to Eastern Michigan who have had extra time to celebrate. With all the boosters and fans giving them praise all week we can see a team that’s not used to success coming out flat tonight. Northern on the other hand have beaten the Eagles 14 of 15 games, including the last four by a combined margin of 120 points, 30 points per contest. Despite the late loss last week to Toledo this team has outscored the opposition 113-58 the past three games. Rod Carey will not let this team get down on itself and the talent level isn’t a huge drop-off from last year. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-15-16 | Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 55 | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
302 Kent State at Bowling Green While the Mid-American Conference is thought of as a high scoring league we often find value on the under when these teams play in the national spotlight. Face it, the general sports bettor wants scoring and lots of it, which is why this MACtion games have been so successful for ESPN. Last week these two combined for 66 and 58 points so the first reaction would be for another high scoring MAC contest. But we only made this line 47.1 which gives us a full touchdown advantage on the under in this contest. Kent State is a very good defensive team in this conference, and the Falcons have gotten better on that side of the ball as the season has unfolded. Look for a lower scoring contest here. PLAY UNDER |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys +3 v. Steelers | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
271 Dallas at Pittsburgh This is a classic case of perception winning out over reality. Just lay out the season long statistics of these two teams and take away the team names, then tell me who should be favored here. One team has won 7 straight games, winning 6 of those in yards per play. That club has only lost the turnover battle once all year and is +6 in sacks on the season. That team has produced a league high +21 explosive play margin. Team two sits at 4-4 on the year and enters on a three game losing streak. That team is 2-4-1 in yards per play this season and is -2 in turnover margin. The team is also a balanced 0 in explosive plays, allowing the same amount as it obtained itself. By now you recognize that the team with the far better production is the road underdog Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers simply are not playing well enough to trust here against what could be the NFC Super Bowl representative. Losses to Miami and Baltimore as of late cannot be excused. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-13-16 | Vikings v. Redskins -1 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
262 Minnesota at Washington The Vikings are not a team that is built to come back from deficits. The last three weeks Minnesota has scored 3 points by the half in each game. That was against Philadelphia, Chicago and Detroit. The offense produced a season high of 5.3 yards per play earlier this year against the Giants, which tells you how much this team struggles. If it wasn’t for a +12 turnover margin we would be talking about this team as one of the dregs of the league. In explosive plays Washington owns a +15 advantage over these Vikings. The offense has produced 16 points or more in every game, along with a season low of 5.0 yards per play. That would tie the second best game the Vikings have had offensively. Washington is the better all-around team and the line play for the Redskins is far superior overall to Minnesota, who are -11 sacks the past three games. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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11-12-16 | Appalachian State +1 v. Troy | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 22 m | Show |
159 Appalachian State at Troy The Mountaineers have won both meetings with the Trojans by margins of 3 and 39 points the last two years. The 44-41 triple overtime game from a year ago was with the Mountaineers as a 24 point favorite. That game was sandwiched between two Thursday games with contenders Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. You can bet coach Satterfield will remind his team of that situation from a year ago. With only ULM and New Mexico State remaining on the schedule Appalachian State can focus fully on Troy here. Troy has put together a really good season, but this team hasn’t played a good team since the September 10th meeting at Clemson. The Trojans have been a 9 point or larger favorite in each of the last five games. App State has the much more explosive team despite playing a slightly tougher schedule. This team knows how to win on the road and we expect a solid victory over the Trojans. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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11-12-16 | Illinois +26.5 v. Wisconsin | 3-48 | Loss | -106 | 44 h 21 m | Show | |
163 Illinois at Wisconsin The Fighting Illini have been at its best away from home this season. Despite a 1-2 road mark this team had a 6.1 to 5.9 yards per play advantage at Nebraska and crushed Rutgers 24-7. Coming off a confidence building win over Michigan State we like the Illini to keep this one close. This is definitely a soft spot in the Wisconsin schedule. The last six games the Badgers have played Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. Two of those games had to be decided in overtime. After winning three straight games by margins of 14, 6 and 8 points, we can really see this Badger team going through the motions here. Especially when you consider the Badgers have beaten Illinois five straight seasons. From a mathematical standpoint catching upwards of 27 points in a game totaled at 39 is an easy take. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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11-12-16 | SMU +7 v. East Carolina | 55-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 14 m | Show | |
133 SMU at East Carolina Chad Morris really laid into his team after that 51-7 blowout loss at home vs Memphis last week, and the players got the message. After winning just 3 games combined the past two seasons, the players were feeling high and mighty after back to back wins over Tulane and Houston. That reality lesson should make this Mustang a fired up squad come Saturday. SMU has performed well on the road with outright wins at Tulane and North Texas, along with taking Tulsa to overtime. East Carolina beat NC State was back on September 10th but have lost 6 of 7 since. The offense has struggled in the red zone and the defense has been shredded on a regular basis. Line play has been a major factor with the Pirates sitting at a -20 on the season in sacks. SMU on the other hand is +6 on the season. That line play gives us a huge edge here as we expect the Mustangs to avenge back to back losses to the Pirates. PLAY SMU |
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11-12-16 | Kentucky +14 v. Tennessee | Top | 36-49 | Win | 100 | 41 h 42 m | Show |
165 Kentucky at Tennessee Not buying into the line movement here as Kentucky has been every bit as good as Tennessee the last month. The Wildcats have a sizable explosive play advantage on the season of 1.4 per game over the Volunteers. In matching up similar opponents and using 3.5 as home field advantage we see Kentucky fares very closely to Tennessee. The Wildcats were -34.5 against Florida while Tennessee was +6.5. That was the clear outlier when looking at these games. Against South Carolina it was +3.5 for the Wildcats and +0.5 for Tennessee. Against Alabama it was -24.5 for KY and -42.5 for TN. Versus Georgia it was -6.5 for the Wildcats and +6.5 for the Volunteers. With Tennessee expected to be the SEC East Champions coming into the season, we can fade this team down the stretch. Off three straight losses there is no way Tennessee deserves this much credit in the betting marketplace. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-12-16 | Baylor v. Oklahoma UNDER 79 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
200 Baylor at Oklahoma This Baylor offense is not even close to previous versions, scoring just 22 last week against a questionable TCU stop unit. The only times it reached 40 points was against SMU, Iowa State and Kansas. Only once in those three games did the Bears surpass 5.7 yards per play. Oklahoma has held 6 of 9 opponents to less than 5.3 yards per play. This defense has really tightened up since Texas Tech put up 59 points against them. With a very high total in an early start game we look for this contest to be lower scoring than projected. PLAY UNDER |
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11-11-16 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 47.5 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
117 Boston College at Florida State The better team usually dictates the pace and it’s clear who is considered the superior team here. While Boston College was excellent defensively the last two seasons the same cannot be said this year, especially when playing solid offensive teams. The Eagles permitted 49 to Virginia Tech, 56 to Clemson and 52 to Louisville. Tough to play under this number when facing another team who has had defensive problems all season. Florida State has held just one opponent under 19 points this year and that was Wake Forest in a 17-6 victory. This team has permitted 34, 63, 35, 37, 19, 37 and 20 points in every other game. We all know the Seminoles can put up points in a hurry, and we expect this to be a higher scoring game. In looking at explosive plays the Eagles produce 8.0 per contest while the Seminoles sit at 12.9 per game. That average of 10.45 is a full 2 explosive plays higher than any other game lined in the 40’s this week. That gives us a tremendous advantage against this current line. PLAY OVER |
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11-10-16 | UL-Lafayette +8 v. Georgia Southern | 33-26 | Win | 100 | 49 h 43 m | Show | |
113 UL Lafayette at Georgia Southern While the Ragin’ Cajuns haven’t overwhelmed this season the defense has been impressive. The last six FBS opponents have produced 23, 3, 24, 37 in double overtime, 41 in four overtimes and 23 points. On the road UL Lafayette lost by two in four overtimes at Tulane, lost by six in two overtimes at New Mexico State and beat Texas State by 24. This is just the fourth game in six weeks for the Ragin’ Cajuns who have had a nice rest with two bye weeks. Georgia Southern on the other hand is playing for the sixth straight week after facing a physical Mississippi team a week ago. At home against FBS competition the Eagles struggled against ULM in a 23-21 win and lost to Appalachian State by 24 points. In yards per play this club has been outgunned in seven straight contests. Not the type of team we want laying close to double digits. Give us the Ragin’ Cajuns on Thursday to take this one to the wire. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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11-09-16 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois +7 | 31-24 | Push | 0 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
106 Toledo and Northern Illinois at Chicago The numbers point to Toledo being the favorite here but take a look at the discrepancy between the schedules of these two teams. By far Toledo’s toughest opponent was a 55-53 loss at BYU. Other than that game the next toughest opponent for the Rockets was likely Ohio U, a 31-26 home loss. Northern Illinois on the other hand lost at Wyoming in overtime, were blown out at South Florida, lost at home to San Diego State and lost by 15 at undefeated Western Michigan. Three of those four games were played in the first three contests of the season, right after star QB Drew Hare was lost for the season. This is a totally different Huskies team that the one who was finding its way early on. Northern Illinois has won six straight against the Rockets, including outright underdog wins as a 7 and 8 1/2 point dog. While this is technically a neutral game the Huskies will have the crowd advantage. It also has an extra day to prepare after playing last Tuesday. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-08-16 | Eastern Michigan +1 v. Ball State | Top | 48-41 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
101 Eastern Michigan at Ball State The Eagles have dropped five straight in this series, but keep in mind this team posted a 13-47 overall record during that time. This Chris Creighton squad is far superior to any of those teams. In fact, a win here and the Eagles will become bowl eligible. After back to back losses to Western Michigan and an improving Miami Ohio, a victory here is paramount before heading into the bye week. Ball State has dropped 4 of 5 overall with the lone victory coming at Buffalo in a non-covering affair. The running game for the Cardinals is quality but this Eastern Michigan run defense is much tougher than in past years. We can see the Eagles putting a lot of pressure on the Ball State signal caller, making the offense one dimensional. Eastern has the much more explosive team averaging +1.1 explosive plays per game while Ball State sits at a -1.6. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-06-16 | Jets v. Dolphins -3.5 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 89 h 57 m | Show | |
460 NY Jets at Miami Fourth road game in five weeks for the Jets who have scored 17 points or less in 4 of 8 games this season. In first half play NY is 2-6 in yards per play which means most of any offense success has been with the team behind late. The last six games the Jets have trailed by the half. Miami has improved with the football as of late producing 6.8 and 7.0 yards per play the past two games. That was against the Pittsburgh and Buffalo defenses. Coming off a bye we like rookie coaches to put in new plays to stump the opposition. That’s the case here as Miami has extra time to prepare. We look for the Dolphins to take care of business here as this team has a huge scheduling advantage. The Dolphins haven’t left home since way back on September 29th at Cincinnati. Much easier than 4 of 5 weeks traveling for the Jets. PLAY MIAMI |
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11-05-16 | Nebraska +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-62 | Loss | -104 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
415 Nebraska at Ohio State Only one team all season has scored more than 22 points in regulation against the Huskers. That was Oregon way back in week three who tallied 32. The last five games Nebraska has permitted 17, 14, 22, 16 and 13 points in regulation. Tough not to like a sizable underdog with a defense like that. Ohio State is really struggling offensively. Without JT Barrett being 100% it takes away the ability for the QB to run from the pocket. The last four games Ohio State has produced 5.9, 5.0, 5.6 and 5.4 yards per play. These two clubs faced two good conference opponents this year, Northwestern and Wisconsin. In regulation Ohio State outscored those two by 4 total points, Nebraska outscored the same two teams in regulation by 11 points. So why are the Buckeyes such a prohibitive favorite? Public perception. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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11-05-16 | East Carolina +8.5 v. Tulsa | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 18 m | Show | |
353 East Carolina at Tulsa The Pirates have defeated the Golden Hurricane six straight meetings, yet the early money has been all over the host. Last week East Carolina finally had success in the red zone which has been a problem in the early going. This club was moving the ball well between the 20’s but finally found the end zone with regularity against a good defensive team in Connecticut. Tulsa under Philip Montgomery averaged 37.2 ppg a year ago, and 59 and 50 the past two games this season. So there is little problems offensively. The problem is a defense that has permitted 27 points or more in the past six games. That includes 41 to Fresno State, 40 to SMU and 27 to a limited Tulane squad. On the season Tulsa has a -0.6 explosive plays per game average. This despite playing a five point easier schedule than the Pirates, who are exactly even in explosive plays this season. Too many points to lay with this weak defense. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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11-05-16 | Maryland +31 v. Michigan | 3-59 | Loss | -109 | 74 h 56 m | Show | |
347 Maryland at Michigan No need to rush out for this one as its very likely the line will continue to rise with the Wolverines. Maryland has been a different team this year with Perry Hills behind center. He was injured in the first half against Penn State and the drop-off was immediate. Now that he’s back at QB Maryland has a chance to make a game of it. The Terrapins put up 28 against Michigan State and 36 last week against Indiana. Michigan is the superior team but this line is inflated. Just last week the Wolverines struggled to put away the Spartans, giving 24 1/2 points. We have Michigan State 3 points better than Maryland, so the correct line should be 27 1/2 at the most. If you discount the games Hills didn’t play the Terrapins would likely be a 24 point underdog. That gives us plenty of line value on the underdog. With Maryland playing with shutout revenge for a 28-0 loss a year ago, we back the road underdog. PLAY MARYLAND |
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11-05-16 | Charlotte +20 v. Southern Miss | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 38 m | Show |
357 Charlotte at Southern Miss Charlotte was a team getting a lot of press in the offseason with 16 returning starters. After facing Louisville, Eastern Michigan and Temple that hype dissipated. But looking back we see that all three of those teams are much improved, which gives us value on the 49ers now. The last three games Charlotte has outscored the opposition 81 to 74 despite playing two of those games on the road. The 49ers also have a slightly better explosive plays per game average than does the Golden Eagles, despite playing a little tougher schedule. Charlotte is off a bye after winning at Marshall by 3, while Southern Miss just beat the Thundering Herd at home by 10. There is no way the Golden Eagles deserve to be favorites of this magnitude. The Golden Eagles own just one FBS victory by more than this spread, and that was over UTEP, in a game it only had a 0.9 yards per play advantage. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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11-05-16 | Fresno State +15.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
371 Fresno State at Colorado State Don’t look now but the Bulldogs have become major money makers after the firing of head coach Tim DeRuyter. Four straight covers by a combined total of 16 1/2 points. After blowing a huge lead and losing in overtime to Tulsa, followed by a 25 point loss at UNLV, this team was left for dead. Not anymore as this club is playing with new enthusiasm. Colorado State has three FBS wins on the season, against UTSA, Utah State and UNLV. In two of those three games the Rams lost the yards per play category. In all three of those games Colorado State won the turnover battle. This is the first time all season this club has been a double digit favorite. The last time in that role was against these very same Bulldogs last year, and the Rams only won that game 34-31. We look for more of the same here. PLAY FRESNO STATE |
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11-03-16 | UCLA +12 v. Colorado | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
315 UCLA at Colorado The Bruins have beaten the Buffaloes all five times since Colorado joined the PAC12. In every meeting UCLS has been a double digit favorite. Just last year Colorado was getting 23 points in Los Angeles. Now the Buffalos have been installed as a double digit favorite Thursday at home. While there is a drop-off at quarterback without Rosen, this line is saying its an eight point line adjustment. With last week off for the Bruins, the team can make the needed adjustments at quarterback. Just three weeks ago the Buffaloes gave Arizona State 11 1/2 points here. We have UCLA a full 10 points better with a healthy Rosen. Once again the line here has been overblown. Too many points to not back the Bruins here off its worst defensive effort of the year. PLAY UCLA |
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11-01-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
718 Golden State at Portland Playoff revenge for the Blazers here after the Warriors knocked them out of contention last season. The Blazers are a team we are looking to back early on as just about all the key pieces return from last years club. Teams with cohesiveness have a big edge early in the season. Golden State on the other hand made some major changes to its personnel this season, which is why the club has been an early money burner. We back the home dog here in what amounts to a statement game. PLAY PORTLAND |
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11-01-16 | Bowling Green +17 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
301 Bowling Green at Northern Illinois What a difference a year makes with these two schools. The last three seasons these programs played for the MAC Championship. Now neither will be making the big game. Mike Jinks took over for Dino Babers this season and the club was overwhelmed from the start, much like what happened to Northern Illinois this season. But both clubs have settled down now that conference action is underway. Just three weeks ago Bowling Green traveled to Ohio U and were installed as a 12 point underdog, in a 30-24 Bobcats win. Now the line is 5 points higher against a Huskies team that we have power rated as equal to Ohio U. That gives us plenty of value with the Falcons on Tuesday. Bowling Green still turns the ball over way too often, but the offense is starting to click. Bowling Green has produced 24 points or more in its last four games, against some of the better defenses in the MAC no less. Last time out Northern Illinois crushed Buffalo 44-7. But the offensively challenged Bulls lost the turnover battle by 4 in the first half in that game. The Bulls never had a chance to compete. Northern is the better team but this line is outrageous. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-30-16 | Patriots v. Bills +6 | 41-25 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
260 New England at Buffalo If you follow public betting patterns it’s clear that the Patriots will be a major play for most people on Sunday. Currently 92% of the money and 85% of the bets are on the Patriots. Yet the line has barely moved. That means the books are confident that Buffalo is a team it wants to back here, and we always like to be on the side of the bookmakers. In fact the sharpest books are sitting with the best line for Patriot backers, while you can get 6 and 6 1/2 at the so called square books in Vegas. It’s tough going against the Pats especially in a revenge situation, but this line is simply too high. It’s basically stating that on a neutral field New England is 9 points better than the Bills. Buffalo has outscored the opposition the past five games 149-81. This team is also 9-2 in the home dog role. We expect this one to come down to the last possession. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-29-16 | Tulsa v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 59-30 | Loss | -106 | 56 h 32 m | Show |
162 Tulsa at Memphis The Golden Hurricane has lost to Memphis by 24 and 20 points the past two seasons. The only FBS victories this season for Tulsa have come against San Jose State, Fresno State, SMU and Tulane. The middle two games coming in overtime. Memphis has suffered just two losses on the year, at Mississippi and at Navy. Two teams much better than Tulsa. The Tigers have a +1.5 explosive plays per game more than the Golden Hurricane while playing almost identical strength of schedules. Look for another double digit victory for Memphis. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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10-29-16 | Boise State -13.5 v. Wyoming | 28-30 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 6 m | Show | |
187 Boise State at Wyoming The last six years Boise has beaten the Cowboys by margins of 20, 49, 41, 31, 22 and 45 points. The Broncos have two extra days to prepare after outlasting BYU last Thursday. Boise has played a 2 point tougher schedule and still has a 4.7 explosive plays per game edge over Wyoming. The Cowboys are starting to get a lot of press as of late, but the wins over Northern Illinois, Colorado State, Air Force and Nevada all have one thing in common. Every one of those clubs are having a down year. We see no reason why the Broncos cannot continue the dominance in this series. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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10-29-16 | Arizona State v. Oregon -8 | Top | 35-54 | Win | 100 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
202 Arizona State at Oregon The Sun Devils have dropped 3 of 4 as of late with the offense averaging just 22.8 points per game. The quarterback position has been hampered with injuries and the starting center is out for this game. In three road games this season Arizona State is 0-3 ATS with spread losses of 12 1/2, 12 and 17 1/2 points. Oregon looked good coming out of the bye giving California all it could handle in a double overtime loss. On the season the Ducks have played a 5 point tougher schedule and still owns a 2.4 explosive play per game average over the Sun Devils. With the Ducks being winless on the season ATS there is tons of value on this Oregon squad. PLAY OREGON |
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10-29-16 | Northwestern +27 v. Ohio State | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show | |
169 Northwestern at Ohio State The Wildcats are 21-9 ATS in the role of road underdogs, including three straight outright victories over Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State. The only losses on the season have come against Western Michigan and Nebraska, two undefeated teams by a combined margin of 12 points. Many will look to back the Buckeyes and Urban Meyer off a loss. But this Ohio State offense just can’t be trusted in this price range. The last three games the Buckeyes have averaged 5.0, 5.6 and 5.4 yards per play. That’s far from an elite offense. Ohio State and Meyer are an extremely good team but this isn’t the elite squad the talking heads would have you believe. Ohio State is on a 4-7 run as home favorites, and this is a very lofty spread. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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10-29-16 | Army v. Wake Forest -5.5 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
132 Army at Wake Forest The Black Knights gained a lot of attention in knocking off Temple 28-13 as a 13 1/2 point underdog to start the season. But since then Army is 2-3 vs FBS competition with the only wins coming against Rice & UTEP. In fact, This team has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire FBS. How about facing North Texas, Duke, Buffalo, UTEP and Rice the past five FBS games. This team has dropped three straight ATS by a combined margin of 53 points. Army is an overrated squad right now in the betting markets. Wake Forest has beaten Army each of the last four seasons and has already faced an option team in Tulane in the season opener. The Demon Deacons are off a bye and have cashed 4 of 5 games heading into this clash. The last two games Wake held Florida State and Syracuse to a combined 26 points. This line is cheap based on the perceived improvement from Army. Keep in mind there is a huge strength of schedule edge here for the host as Wake Forest has played a 14 point tougher schedule than the Black Knights. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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10-29-16 | Maryland v. Indiana -5 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show | |
142 Maryland at Indiana This is just the second Big 10 road game of the season for the Terrapins. The first being a 38-14 loss at Penn State. Last year the only road conference win for Maryland was the season finale at Rutgers. Indiana has taken a great deal of money in the betting marketplace the last couple weeks in losses to Northwestern and Nebraska. The line movements were incorrect then, but in our opinion now is the time to back the host. Indiana has played a 6 point tougher schedule than Maryland and is sitting at a bargain price. The Hoosiers won at Maryland last year and we expect a double digit victory here. PLAY INDIANA |
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10-29-16 | Duke v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 14 m | Show | |
176 Duke at Georgia Tech Duke has won the last two meetings against the Yellow Jackets, but dropped ten straight before that. Duke is 2-4 SU on the season against FBS competition and have lost the yards per play battle in every single contest. That includes games against the likes of Virginia and Army. Many will talk about the effort against Louisville last time out for the Blue Devils. A 24-14 loss. But keep in mind the Cardinals outgunned Duke 7.7 to 4.0 in yards per play. Georgia Tech has a 3.3 explosive play per game advantage over Duke, and that is despite playing a tougher schedule. We get to take advantage of a weak team here, and the line is very cheap. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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10-28-16 | Indians +185 v. Cubs | Top | 1-0 | Win | 185 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
901 Cleveland at Chicago While we love Kyle Hendricks and the job he has done all season, the betting value is all on the Indians. Josh Tomlin is unflappable and pitching in this environment will not affect him. He’s very similar to Corey Kluber in that he has excellent control and rarely walks a batter. With the Cubs being a very patient team they will have their hands full with Tomlin and the rested Cleveland bullpen. Too much value not to take the Tribe. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-28-16 | Navy v. South Florida -6.5 | 45-52 | Win | 100 | 54 h 53 m | Show | |
114 Navy at South Florida The Midshipmen have been a bit lucky scheduling wise as of late. After upsetting Houston the game at East Carolina was cancelled because of the hurricane flooding. That avoided a letdown situation. The team took advantage of the extra week off by beating Memphis on Saturday. Now with a possible lookahead to Notre Dame next week we have Navy taking to the road to face South Florida. Not only are the Bulls coming off an embarrassing 16 point loss at Temple, this team is playing with revenge for a 29-17 loss last year at Navy. Willie Taggart was stressing physicality in practice this week and we expect a supreme effort from the host. Quinton Flowers left the Temple game because of injury but he’s 100% this week according to the coaching staff. With a bye on deck for the host this game is a must win for USF. The Bulls have a 1.6 explosive plays per game advantage here despite having played a 2 1/2 point tougher schedule. This line is very cheap. PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA |
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10-27-16 | Akron v. Buffalo +17.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 32 h 46 m | Show | |
106 Akron at Buffalo Strong spot play here for the Bulls who are off a road trip to Northern Illinois and play on the road again next week at Ohio. The Buffalo offense has picked up the pace a bit as of late producing 229 and 199 offensive first half yards the past two games. The problem was a -4 turnover disadvantage in the first half last week against Northern Illinois. This Buffalo offense isn’t built to come from behind so the second half showing last week was a forgone conclusion. Akron on the other hand win play three games in a 12 day span. It beat Ball State on the road last week in a furious second half comeback. Next Wednesday the Zips host MAC powerhouse Toledo. In the meantime Akron heads to the road to play the lowly Bulls. This is easily the least important game for the Zips, but the most important in this three game stretch for the Bulls. Finally we have the advantage of line value. Last week Akron was a 3 1/2 point underdog at Ball State. Basically meaning the two teams are rated the same if you use a 3 point home field advantage. Just two weeks ago Buffalo was an 11 point home dog to Ball State, now the line as we write this is at 17 1/2. So in just a week or so Akron is being rated 6 1/2 points higher than Ball State. Woodson is back at QB for the Zips but the weather should play to the Bulls. The game is supposed to be played in the rain with winds from 10-20 mph. That should slow down the passing attack of Akron, leading to Buffalo making this a game. By the way, the Bulls have beaten Akron four straight times in UB Stadium. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-23-16 | Raiders v. Jaguars -115 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
464 Oakland at Jacksonville Raiders enter this game at 4-2 on the season but have lost the cards per play battle in every single contest. The reason for the Oakland success has been a plus 5 turnover margin. While this team is a perfect 3-0 on the road, all victories came by a single point. This has been a very fortunate team in which we can take advantage. The Jags are 2-3 on the season but have won the yards per play battle in four of those five games. While the Raiders are +5 in TO’s the Jaguars are -5. That pretty much is the differential in records between these two. Jacksonville was right in there against Green Bay and Baltimore, with a very little amount of luck this team could be 4-1. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-23-16 | Colts v. Titans -3 | 34-26 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 49 m | Show | |
466 Indianapolis at Tennessee Second of back to back road games for the Colts, coming off a no rest week against Chicago after playing in London. It’s the first time a team elected to play the game after traveling overseas and it could play a major factor here. Indy simply isn’t nearly as good as it has been since Andrew Luck took over. While it sits at 3-3 on the season, none of the wins came by more than six points. In fact, using yards per play Indianapolis has only won that battle once all season. Both meetings with the Titans last year were close, with Indy winning by margins of 2 and 3 points. The Titans get over the hump here. At 3-3 on the season this team has a real chance at reaching the playoffs for the first time in a long while. in yards per play Tennessee is 4-1-1 on the season. While the Colts have been traveling extensively, the Titans are home for the second of three straight games. Great spot for the host as Tennessee keeps the momentum going. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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10-22-16 | Wyoming v. Nevada +4.5 | 42-34 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 18 m | Show | |
374 Wyoming at Nevada This game all comes down to buying low and selling high. Wyoming which has a huge home/road dichotomy, is off a satisfying home underdog win over Air Force followed by a bye. After beating Colorado State and Air Force you know this team is riding high and mighty with the week off. Nevada on the other hand has dropped 3 of 4 including a loss last week at lowly San Jose State. In that game the Wolf Pack held a 4.6 to 3.9 yards per play edge but were -2 in turnovers. Now with its own bye on deck it’s extremely important for Brian Polian and his crew to turn this season around. Before the season this line would have been around Nevada -12. So you can see how much perception of these two programs have changed. We look for the host to right the ship here and gain the outright victory. PLAY NEVADA |
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10-22-16 | Georgia Southern v. New Mexico State +14 | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 77 h 21 m | Show |
396 Georgia Southern at New Mexico State The Eagles are 2-3 SU vs FBS competition on the season and 1-4 ATS. It has been out gained in yards per play in 4 of 5 games. Yet for some reason Georgia Southern has been installed as a double digit road favorite. It’s also the fourth straight road game for the Eagles and third straight since its bye week. The Eagles also have to play on Thursday hosting Appalachian State in a revenge matchup. Needless to say this is a terrible spot for the visitor. New Mexico State is just 2-4 SU vs FBS competition but did beat another ground oriented attack in in-state rival New Mexico. Coming off an embarrassing 55-23 loss at Idaho after a bye, you can be assured Doug Martin and his crew will be fired up for this home battle. The Aggies are undefeated in Aggie Memorial Stadium this year and have double revenge against this opponent. When looking at explosive plays the Aggies are +0.5 per game while the Eagles are -2.0 on the season. Georgia Southern just doesn’t have the breakout backs it has had in prior seasons. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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10-22-16 | UTEP +9.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 70 h 30 m | Show | |
383 UTEP at UTSA The Miners went into the bye week having lost five straight games to the likes of Texas, Army and Louisiana Tech. UTEP is 5-2 ATS as of late coming off a bye and we expect Sean Kugler to have his teams full attention here. Especially considering that it has double revenge against this UTSA squad. The Roadrunners have taken a lot of money lately as Frank Wilson and his crew look to be on the upswing. But keep in mind despite victories the last two weeks the wins came against Southern Miss and Rice, two of the most disappointing teams in college football. UTSA still has problems protecting the quarterback and putting pressure on opposing signal callers. The Roadrunners are now -17 in sacks against FBS competition this season. This team doesn’t have the line play to lay this type of number. PLAY UTEP |
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10-22-16 | Old Dominion +13.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 24-59 | Loss | -106 | 69 h 23 m | Show |
385 Old Dominion at Western Kentucky We’ve been very impressed by the job Bobby Wilder has done with the Monarchs. Three straight victories with the only FBS losses coming at Appalachian State at North Carolina State. With an extra week to prepare we look for Old Dominion to avenge two straight losses to the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the number in five straight games but it’s gone unnoticed because of a 3-3 straight up record. But this team could come in here a bit suggest after going to the wire against Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Vanderbilt and Miami Ohio. All games decided by seven points or less including two contests involving a total of three overtimes. Now it’s homecoming week with the team knowing it has dispatched the Monarchs by 17 and 15 points the previous two years. When looking at explosive plays the visitor has the edge at +1.2 per game as opposed to a -0.5 for the host. This one is decided very late. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-22-16 | Purdue +24 v. Nebraska | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
329 Purdue at Nebraska Nice spot here for the Boilermakers who relieved head coach Darrell Hazell of his duties after a 49-35 loss to Iowa last week. Hazel took over for Danny Hope before the 2013 season. In Hopes tenure the Boilermakers won 5, 4, 7 and 6 games. Under Hazell the team won 1, 3, 2 and have struggled against this season. But all is not lost in West Lafayette as this team has the talent to be competitive in this league. Especially in this spot against a Nebraska team that it has covered against the last two meetings. While the Cornhuskers are surely looking to avenge a 55-47 loss at Purdue last year, the scheduling spot is extremely rough. After a nip and tuck victory at Indiana a week ago the team has Wisconsin and Ohio State road games on deck. The Huskers have home loss revenge against the Badgers and Ohio State is the best team on its schedule. While the Huskers are undefeated straight up on the season, it’s just 4-2 in yards per play on the year. The Huskers have also gotten off to slow starts this season with its biggest halftime lead being 10 points hosting Wyoming. If the same thing happens here we can see the Purdue players gaining confidence which is what you can’t have with a favorite in this price range. PLAY PURDUE |
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10-22-16 | Ohio v. Kent State +3.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 43 m | Show |
362 Ohio at Kent State The Bobcats are 3-3 SU on the season against FBS competition with a turnover margin advantage of plus 9. As we know turnovers for the most part are random and therefore the Bobcats have been very fortunate. In fact, last week was the first time Ohio U lost the turnover battle and in turn lost the game outright to Eastern Michigan. This team is rated higher by the gambling community than anyone who has watched this team play. Kent State is 1-4 SU on the season but has covered 3 of 5 games against the FBS. The offense obviously struggled against Penn State and Alabama but has averaged over 28 ppg against league opponents. That’s far better than the 9.1 ppg the Golden Flashes averaged a year ago. Speaking of a year ago, Kent State is looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout at the hands of this Bobcat team in Athens. With this being just the second home game against FBS opposition we can see the team fired up to exact some revenge. PLAY KENT STATE |
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10-22-16 | Central Florida v. Connecticut +3.5 | 24-16 | Loss | -103 | 63 h 53 m | Show | |
360 Central Florida at Connecticut The Knights sure have been taking a lot of money lately. While we love the job Scott Frost has done in Orlando, we still feel too much credit is being given to this young team. Last week we went against them with Temple and were fortunate to cover, but we still have the Huskies favored here. Connecticut has beaten the Knights by 27 and 8 points the past two seasons, covering the spread by a combined 47 points. While the Knights are far better than a year ago, this was a 9-4 team in 2014. Simply put there hasn’t been nearly enough improvement in this Knights team to close the huge gap between these two the last couple meetings. Connecticut isn’t pretty as the offense is pedestrian, but this defense has been solid. Just 2-4 on the season vs FBS competition this team remains under the radar. The Huskies are 6-3 SU at home the past two years with the loses coming to Navy, South Florida and a Syracuse team that just upset Virginia Tech. The Knights aren’t in that category as of yet. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-16-16 | Rams v. Lions -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 51 h 35 m | Show |
264 Los Angeles at Detroit The Rams and Giants travel to London next week. Teams that have that trip on deck have been a terrible pointspread proposition. In fact, Los Angeles in taking off from Detroit instead of returning back home. Football teams are a regimented group. Doing things exactly the same every day of the week during the season. A travel situation like this is sure to mess up your weekly flow of energy. The Rams haven’t spent two weeks at home the entire season up to this point and won’t until back to back home games hosting San Francisco and Arizona to end the regular season. The Rams have lost the yards per play stat in every game played this season. Unlike the visitor the Lions are home for the second of three straight weeks. Detroit is 8–3-2 ATS under Jim Caldwell as a home favorite. The Rams will get the full attention on the Lions here in a great scheduling spot for the host. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-15-16 | Temple +4 v. Central Florida | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 52 h 58 m | Show |
123 Connecticut at South Florida The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-15-16 | Connecticut +20 v. South Florida | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
123 Connecticut at South Florida The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-15-16 | Ball State v. Buffalo +10.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 6 m | Show |
122 Ball State at Buffalo The Cardinals are 2-3 straight up against FBS competition and haven’t been favored by double digits in ten games. The last time the Cardinals were such a big favorite it lost outright to Georgia State, failing to cover the spread by 25 points. When we break down explosive plays we find the host having the better numbers than this high priced road favorite. Buffalo is 1-3 vs FBS competition and are off back to back blowouts to Kent State and Boston College. But this line movement is too extreme as Kent State was favored by just 3 points last week. We only rate Ball State three points better than the Golden Flashes. So we are getting an additional four points here with a fired up home dog looking to make amends. An outright upset wouldn’t surprise. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-15-16 | North Carolina +7 v. Miami (Fla) | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
139 North Carolina at Miami Florida Last week the Tar Heels played in a quagmire with Hurricane Matthew blowing into town. For a team that passes as much as North Carolina the hurricane made them quite one dimensional. Now we see an overreaction in the line as the betting public has written off this club. The same team who won outright at Florida State just two weeks ago. The same Florida State team who just beat this Miami squad in Miami. The Hurricanes finally played a decent team last week and lost at home. Before that Miami had faced Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State and Georgia Tech. North Carolina has faced the likes of Georgia, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. Mark Richt is doing a fine job in Coral Gables but this team isn’t yet to the level to lay a touchdown against a team of North Carolina’s stature. This one goes down to the wire. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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10-15-16 | Eastern Michigan +7 v. Ohio | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ohio U Been very impressed with the job Craig Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan this season. Since 2009 this team had been 15-69 and the laughingstock of the MAC. But this year his Eagles have been very competitive with a 3-2 SU record against FBS competition. What’s been especially good is that transpired despite a -4 turnover disadvantage. The last four games when looking at yards per play the Eagles have held their own. +1.9 ypp against Charlotte, +1.5 vs Wyoming, +1.2 against Bowling Green and were only outgunned by 20 point favorite Toledo by 0.2 yards per play. Ohio U is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS vs FBS opposition. But keep in mind that this team has a turnover advantage of +10 and a sack advantage of +17 on the year. Teams that dominate those two stats should be much more successful. Coming off unimpressive victories over Miami Ohio and Bowling Green, we can clearly see the sell sign on the Bobcats. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-15-16 | Vanderbilt +14 v. Georgia | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
179 Vanderbilt at Georgia Second straight road game for the Commodores who are off a 20-13 loss at Kentucky. But teams who fail to cover in the first game of a back to back are an excellent play the following week. We saw this earlier in the season as the Commodores won outright at Western Kentucky after failing at Georgia Tech. That makes Vandy 5-0 ATS in that situation the last five years. Despite dropping game at Kentucky and Florida the past two weeks the Commodores beat both teams in yards per play. Georgia enters this game 3-2 SU against FBS members. Beating North Carolina by 9, Missouri by a single point and South Carolina by 14 when running back the onside kick at games end last week. We just haven’t seen enough out of this Georgia team to lay this type of number. Our explosive play chart rates Vandy much higher than the Bulldogs. Tough to lay this big of number without long touchdowns. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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10-14-16 | Mississippi State +7 v. BYU | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 36 h 33 m | Show | |
111 Mississippi State at BYU The Bulldogs are off a complete embarrassment last week at the hands of Auburn. That came after a bye week which really makes it bad for coach Dan Mullen. So we expect a major rebound from a team that won 9 and 10 games the previous two years. The last three seasons State is 10-4 ATS off a straight up loss. BYU on the other hand played five straight nail biter games decided by a field goal or less, and are off a 31-14 upset victory at Michigan State. With a Thursday night game against rival Boise State on deck, we can see the Cougars not being 100% focused here. PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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10-09-16 | Patriots v. Browns +10.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 17 m | Show | |
456 New England at Cleveland The day has finally arrived when Tom Brady returns to the field and leads the Patriots to the Super Bowl. While that does have a nice ring to it, chances are he will be a bit rusty coming out of the gate. He hasn’t been able to attend team functions during this suspension, so no doubt he will be a bit behind where he normally would be. And that will be especially true in the first half on Sunday. Cleveland has played much better than its record especially in the first half where the Browns have actually outscored the opposition. Cleveland has the ground game to shorten this contest which makes the QB edge for New England slightly less than normal. This is just the second home game of the season for Cleveland and we expect the Browns to be a feisty bunch on Sunday. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
462 Philadelphia at Detroit The Eagles had the legitimizer game right before the week off as they crushed the Steelers 34-3. You know this team is living high on the hog the past two weeks savoring its success. But turnovers have been a big part of that 3-0 record with a +6 turnover margin. Now the team takes to the road to play a Detroit team coming off three straight losses. The Lions are 11-6 straight up at home as of late with just three of those losses coming by more than a field goal. While Philly is fat and happy this is a must win situation for the host. We expect the Lions to get it done as the Eagles come in overrated. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-08-16 | Washington v. Oregon +9 | Top | 70-21 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 33 m | Show |
386 Washington at Oregon Coming into this season we were already aware of how good this Washington team would be, along with the expected drop-off of the Ducks. Yet all three of our power ratings made Oregon a 1 1/2 point favorite in this game. So what has happened this season to make this game 11 points higher? Virtually nothing other than a nationally televised blowout win over Stanford. A Cardinal team that had just beaten USC and UCLA the previous two weeks before taking on the Huskies on a short week. We take nothing away from this Washington team but keep in mind it had to go to overtime to beat Arizona the prior week. Oregon enters this game on a three game losing streak, dropping contests to Nebraska, Colorado and Washington State, three bowl worthy opponents. Over the last 10+ years the Ducks are 61-10 straight up in Autzen Stadium. Oregon enters this contest knowing it has beaten the Huskies 12 straight games, yet is installed as a sizable home underdog. This team has been a home dog just twice in this last decade plus. Winning both games outright and covering the spread by a whopping combined margin of 74 1/2 points! PLAY OREGON |
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