QUARTERBACK YARDS PROPS HANDICAPPING
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For most quarterbacks, 26 passing touchdowns in a season isn’t so bad. Patrick Mahomes isn’t any other quarterback and for him, 26 TDs represented just over half his total the year prior.
But a poor statistical season for the 2018 MVP eventually led to a Super Bowl Championship. Mahomes enters 2020 with the highest TD total on the board by far.
Patrick Mahomes NFL Passing Touchdown Odds
Even if Mahomes stayed completely healthy last season, he wouldn’t have exceeded the total DraftKings’ Sportsbook has set for him this season.
He played in 14 games and threw 26 touchdowns the season after throwing 50 in his first year as a starter. Now the question is where does he stabilize?
I don’t think many people have much of a doubt it will be better than his 2019 numbers. This guy is the elite quarterback in the NFL, with plenty of talent around him and now the confidence of being a Super Bowl winner.
It’s a high total but not one he will fail to reach in 2020. There’s just too much talent on the offensive side of the ball for the defending champs.
Prediction: Over 34.5
Drew Lock NFL Passing Touchdown Odds
Lock went 4-1 in five starts after he was thrust into duty as a rookie last season. He only threw for about 200 yards per game but did convert seven TDs.
He’s also got an immensely talented go-to wide receiver in Courtland Sutton, a first round rookie Jerry Jeudy and a first round tight end from a year ago, Noah Fant, who flashed some impressive playmaking ability last season.
But Lock is posted on this board like he’s an established NFL starter. We don’t even know if he can hold an NFL job for a full season. Those high on Lock should go ahead and take a low total because Sutton is that good. I’m going the other way.
A lot can change in a short amount of time and there’s still so much time between now and just the start of the season. This is a bet on Lock missing at least a few starts this season, if not many more.
Prediction: Under 21.5
Ben Roethlisberger NFL Passing Touchdown Odds
Obviously, 2019 was a lost season for Roethlisberger, who had a career-high 5129 yards and 34 TDs in 2018. He had successful elbow surgery, however, and looks to return to previous form in 2020.
I like his chances. He has a proven commodity in Juju Smith-Schuster on the outside and two young up-and-comers alongside with James Washington (a second round pick in 2018) and Diontae Johnson (a third round pick in 2019).
Pittsburgh also added Eric Ebron, who caught 13 touchdowns with Indianapolis two seasons ago, to play alongside Vance McDonald. Three speedy wide receivers and two capable tight ends are part of are recipe for another 30-touchdown season and a Comeback Player of the Year Award in 2020.
Prediction: Over 26.5
Jimmy Garoppolo NFL Passing Touchdown Odds
Jimmy Garoppolo threw 27 touchdowns in his first full season as a starter last year. Very little went wrong for the 49ers throughout the season.
It’s expected San Francisco will breeze again this season, though rarely do things work that way in the world of the NFL.
What I’m concerned about here is Jimmy G’s lack of dependable receivers. George Kittle is tremendous and will be the undisputed go-to guy but after that there are some question marks.
Deebo Samuel looked great as a rookie but he had Emmanuel Sanders on the other side. Now, he is expected to be that number one guy on the outside by himself in just his second season. That’s a lot of pressure for him.
Even more, the Niners don’t have much help to give him or much depth if Samuel doesn’t prove up to the task.
If Garoppolo was barely over 26.5 last season, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he slips a little bit in what could prove a less than perfect 2020, if the unpredictability of the NFL has anything to say.
Prediction: Under 26.5
Full List Of 2020 Regular Season Total Passing Touchdowns Odds:
- Aaron Rodgers 26.5
- Baker Mayfield 24.5
- Ben Roethlisberger 26.5
- Carson Wentz 27.5
- Dak Prescott 27.5
- Daniel Jones 25.5
- Derek Carr 19.5
- Deshaun Watson 27.5
- Drew Brees 29.5
- Drew Lock 21.5
- Jared Goff 23.5
- Jimmy Garoppolo 26.5
- Joe Burrow 21.5
- Josh Allen 21.5
- Kirk Cousins 24.5
- Kyler Murray 25.5
- Lamar Jackson 26.5
- Matt Ryan 27.5
- Matt Stafford 26.5
- Patrick Mahomes 34.5
- Russell Wilson 30.5
- Ryan Tannehill 22.5
- Sam Darnold 22.5
- Teddy Bridgewater 18.5
- Click here to read PART 1 of our 2020 NFL Passing Touchdown Total Player Props blog posts.
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