QUARTERBACK YARDS PROPS HANDICAPPING
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Last season, Lamar Jackson led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns, in addition to all he did on the ground.
But the unanimous MVP is closer to the middle of the pack than the top of DraftKings’ list of 2020 passing touchdown totals.
Currently, 24 quarterbacks are listed as betting options.
Lamar Jackson NFL Passing Touchdown Odds
So let’s start with Jackson, whose 2020 total is nearly ten full touchdowns fewer than what he threw for in his first season as the full-time starter in 2019.
The notion that Jackson will regress in 2020 is plain to see. Defenses will scheme him like they did not in 2019 and he will be challenged to stay healthy again, as he did last season.
But if there’s anything the opposing defenses will try to take away, it will be his legs. You just can’t have him running wild and, despite his numbers a year ago, his arm is still his weakness.
That means he will have plenty of opportunities to throw over the top and down on goal line. Jackson developed good rapports with both Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews, two young receivers who will be back in 2020. There’s only one way to bet this one.
Prediction: Over 26.5
Deshaun Watson NFL Passing Touchdown Odds
Watson has thrown 26 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons now but he will have to get to 28 to eclipse his 2020 total.
Last season, he missed a game and also ran for a career-high seven touchdowns, all of which were in the red zone and a majority were right on the doorstep.
That may not be a one-off. Watson is comfortable running it in from inside the 10-yard line and he may do it just as often, or perhaps more, in 2020.
Between his legs robbing his arm of some scores, the departure of DeAndre Hopkins, and all the sacks he takes playing behind a weak Houston offensive line, Watson will finish under his 2020 total.
Prediction: Under 27.5
Ben Roethlisberger NFL Passing Touchdown Odds
Obviously, 2019 was a lost season for Roethlisberger, who had a career-high 5129 yards and 34 TDs in 2018. He had successful elbow surgery, however, and looks to return to previous form in 2020.
I like his chances. He has a proven commodity in Juju Smith-Schuster on the outside and two young up-and-comers alongside with James Washington (a second round pick in 2018) and Diontae Johnson (a third round pick in 2019).
Pittsburgh also added Eric Ebron, who caught 13 touchdowns with Indianapolis two seasons ago, to play alongside Vance McDonald. Three speedy wide receivers and two capable tight ends are part of are recipe for another 30-touchdown season and a Comeback Player of the Year Award in 2020.
Prediction: Over 26.5
Jared Goff NFL Passing Touchdown Odds
Goff threw 60 touchdowns in 2017 and 2018, combined. Last season, he took a step back and threw just 22 touchdowns to a career-high 16 interceptions.
The Rams did not have a steady run game; nor did Goff’s compliment of receivers stay healthy. As a result, it was hard for the offense to ever get on track completely.
It still showed flashes of its dynamic ability and Head Coach Sean McVay will have the chance plan afresh for 2020. That should be all Goff needs to get back on track here.
Some are bearish on Goff, despite his two excellent seasons prior to last year. That sentiment has his total as a bargain buy. He will throw it a ton and Los Angeles will score points. That’s good enough for me.
Prediction: Over 24.5
Full List Of 2020 Regular Season Total Passing Touchdowns Odds:
- Aaron Rodgers 26.5
- Baker Mayfield 24.5
- Ben Roethlisberger 26.5
- Carson Wentz 27.5
- Dak Prescott 27.5
- Daniel Jones 25.5
- Derek Carr 19.5
- Deshaun Watson 27.5
- Drew Brees 29.5
- Drew Lock 21.5
- Jared Goff 23.5
- Jimmy Garoppolo 26.5
- Joe Burrow 21.5
- Josh Allen 21.5
- Kirk Cousins 24.5
- Kyler Murray 25.5
- Lamar Jackson 26.5
- Matt Ryan 27.5
- Matt Stafford 26.5
- Patrick Mahomes 34.5
- Russell Wilson 30.5
- Ryan Tannehill 22.5
- Sam Darnold 22.5
- Teddy Bridgewater 18.5
- Click here to read PART 2 of our 2020 NFL Passing Touchdown Total Player Props blog posts.
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