Free NFL Pick: Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds
Looking for Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Packers taking on the Buccaneers on 10/4 at Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa Bay. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Packers Buccaneers matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(1-2) Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)
Date: Oct 04, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, FL
NFL Moneyline Odds: Packers -195 | Buccaneers +162 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Packers -4 | Buccaneers +4
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 39.5
Here’s why I’m backing a Green Bay ATS bet below in my Packers Buccaneers free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Gameday
Green Bay heads to Raymond James Stadium for a Week 4 matchup with Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon. Matt LaFleur’s Packers are 1-2, while Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers are still searching for their first win at 0-3.
Neither team has much reason to feel good about Week 3.
Green Bay was hammered 35-14 by Atlanta at Lambeau Field, with the Falcons scoring 27 consecutive points after the Packers grabbed an early lead. Tampa Bay lost 23-16 to Minnesota and suffered an even bigger blow when Baker Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand late in the game.
Both teams need a response, but Tampa Bay now has to find one with a rookie QB making his first start.
That rookie is Jalon Daniels, who will replace Mayfield on Sunday. The undrafted former Kansas QB won the backup job during the preseason and now gets his first NFL start with Tampa Bay already staring at an 0-3 hole.
Green Bay has had extra time to stew over the Atlanta loss after playing last Thursday.
The Buccaneers don’t get that luxury. They’re asking a rookie QB to help stop a three-game skid while Green Bay has had more than a week to prepare for him.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds & Last 5
The opening odds make Green Bay the road favorite. The Packers are -196 on the moneyline, Tampa Bay is +164, and Green Bay is laying 4 points.
The opening total is 39.5.
Green Bay’s season has bounced around considerably through three games. The Packers lost 39-22 to Minnesota, responded with a 20-17 win over the Jets and then got handled 35-14 by Atlanta.
Tampa Bay has been close without getting the result it wants.
The Buccaneers opened with a 33-27 loss at Cincinnati before falling 23-19 to Cleveland. Minnesota then beat Tampa Bay 23-16 last Sunday, dropping the Bucs to 0-3 for the first time since 2014.
Recent history does favor Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers have won three of the last four meetings dating back to 2020 and have scored more than 30 points in each of those victories. Green Bay still owns the all-time series 33-23-1.
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Buccaneers Stats From Last Week
Tampa Bay’s offense didn’t give the home crowd much to celebrate against Minnesota.
The Buccaneers finished with 243 total yards and managed only 57 on the ground. They scored one TD, settled for three FG’s and repeatedly struggled to finish possessions despite getting opportunities from their defense.
Mayfield completed 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards with one TD and one interception.
He was also under constant pressure. Minnesota sacked him six times and registered 12 QB hits, continuing an ugly early-season problem for Tampa Bay’s offensive line.
The Buccaneers have now allowed 13 sacks through three games, the most in the NFL.
That becomes a much bigger concern with Daniels taking over. The rookie brings mobility to the position and ran for more than 1,400 yards during his college career at Kansas, but his only regular-season NFL action came on Tampa Bay’s final possession against Minnesota.
Tampa Bay’s defense gave the offense plenty of chances last week.
The Bucs allowed only 230 total yards and 78 on the ground. Minnesota managed just nine first downs, but an 86-yard punt-return TD and Tampa Bay’s inability to turn field position into TD’s helped decide the game.
Packers Stats From Last Week
Green Bay’s night against Atlanta got ugly in a hurry.
The Packers finished with 328 total yards while allowing 498. Atlanta controlled the football for more than 37 minutes, converted 60 percent of its third downs and rushed for 242 yards.
Jordan Love still threw for 312 yards and 2 TD’s.
Christian Watson caught seven passes for 96 yards and a TD, while Matthew Golden finished with five catches for 100 yards and another score. The passing game produced some numbers, but Green Bay spent too much of the night trying to dig out of a hole.
The ground game gave Love almost no help.
Green Bay rushed for only 17 yards against Atlanta. Through three games, the Packers are averaging fewer than 50 rushing yards per game, leaving the offense heavily dependent on Love and the passing game.
Green Bay can survive being pass-heavy, but asking Love to carry the whole offense every Sunday is pushing it.
The defense wasn’t much better against Atlanta.
Bijan Robinson rushed for 194 yards and Drake London had 194 receiving yards. Green Bay enters Week 4 allowing more than 30 points per game, so the defense has plenty to clean up even with a rookie QB waiting on the other side.
Packers vs. Buccaneers QB Matchup
Jalon Daniels will make his first NFL start for Tampa Bay.
The undrafted rookie out of Kansas replaces Mayfield, who is expected to miss at least three games with his dislocated right thumb. Daniels won Tampa Bay’s primary backup job during the preseason after throwing for 239 yards and a TD.
His first regular-season snaps came late against Minnesota.
Daniels ran for nine yards before throwing two incompletions and an interception on a desperation Hail Mary. Sunday is an entirely different assignment, with Tampa Bay getting a full week to build the offense around what its rookie can handle.
Jordan Love gives Green Bay considerably more certainty at the position.
Love has thrown for 844 yards with 6 TD’s and 2 interceptions through three games. He completed 28 of 53 passes for 312 yards and 2 TD’s against Atlanta, although his interception ended Green Bay’s final possession.
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Christian Watson has emerged as Love’s biggest early-season weapon.
Watson leads Green Bay with 17 catches for 284 yards and 4 TD’s. Matthew Golden is coming off his first 100-yard game, giving Love another option against a Tampa Bay defense that has played better than its 0-3 record might suggest.
Daniels does bring a different problem because of his legs.
He finished his Kansas career with 1,445 rushing yards and 23 rushing TD’s. Green Bay can’t treat him like a stationary rookie in the pocket, and Tampa Bay will likely look for ways to simplify his reads and let him create when plays break down.
Keeping those plays alive is the challenge.
Tampa Bay has had trouble protecting its QB through three weeks. Now that responsibility gets even more important with a rookie taking his first NFL start.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers bottom line: Green Bay has problems of its own to fix, but Tampa Bay asking a rookie QB to solve an 0-3 start changes the complexion of this matchup.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Football Betting Trends
- Green Bay has gone 4-0 on the over/under in their last four regular season games following a win.
- The Packers have a 4-1 over/under record as favorites in their last five regular season games.
- Green Bay is 6-3 on the over/under in their last nine regular season away games.
- Also, Tampa Bay is 3-0 on the over/under in their last three regular season games after a win.
- Additionally, the Buccaneers have a 5-3 over/under record in their last eight regular season home games.
- Tampa Bay has struggled with a 1-7 against the spread record in their last eight regular season home games.
Packers Buccaneers Free Pick: Packers -4
Here is my Packers Buccaneers free pick: I’m laying it with Green Bay -4. The Packers were awful against Atlanta last week. No sugarcoating that mess, but Tampa Bay is 0-3 and now hands the offense to an undrafted rookie making his first NFL start.
That’s a tough spot for Jalon Daniels. Tampa hasn’t protected the QB particularly well, and Green Bay has had a few extra days to sit around and get irritated about being embarrassed at Lambeau.
First NFL start against an angry Packers team? Have fun with that, kid.
Green Bay doesn’t need Jordan Love playing Superman here. Give him a little help on the ground, get Tampa chasing points and make Daniels start throwing because he has to instead of because Todd Bowles wants him to. That’s when I want my money on the veteran QB and the favorite.
Four points isn’t enough to scare me away. Tampa can hang around for a while, but sooner or later Daniels has to answer Love. I’m betting he can’t. Give me Packers -4.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers on X
What a moment for Ted Hurst III 🙌
🔜 #GBvsTB Oct. 4 @ 1 p.m. ET on FOX pic.twitter.com/sgi0MlbYpZ
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) October 1, 2026
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