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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Gonzaga | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia (#815) Gonzaga hasn’t seen much ball pressure from opposing defenses this season. They played in the West Coast Conference, not exactly a hotbed of defensive excellence. The vast majority of their non-conference slate came against teams that don’t force turnovers in bunches. So when we look at the Zags struggles against ball pressure teams in recent weeks, it does not bode well for their chances to beat West Virginia by margin on Thursday. Twice in the last month, Gonzaga has faced an opponent that has put pressure on the ball, looking to generate turnovers. The first time it happened, BYU rallied from 14 points down to win by 8 at Gonzaga, covering the spread by 29 points in the process. The second time it happened, against Northwestern last weekend, the Zags nearly blew a 21 point second half lead, completely falling apart on the offensive end of the court. The numbers do not lie. West Virginia ranks #1 in the country in the percentage of opponents’ possessions that end in a turnover and #3 in the county in the percentage of opponents possessions which end with a steal. They aren’t BYU or Northwestern on defense, yet the Cougars and Wildcats lesser defenses gave the Zags fits while forcing turnovers in bunches. If the Zags had 28 turnovers compared to only 19 assists vs. BYU and Northwestern, we can imagine what this offense will look like against the best pressure defense in the country! West Virginia spent a good portion of the season struggling to hit shots on the offensive end of the court. That changed last weekend, giving this team a strong jolt of confidence heading into their matchup with the Zags. Junior point guard Jevon Carter: “All year we've been telling ourselves that we got the best group of guards in the country and we truly believe that. Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey, following the Mountaineers win over the Irish last weekend: “I didn't expect them to shoot it from outside as well. I thought we could play a little more zone and make them make more threes, and they made every big 3-point shot. And Carter is a big-time winner. What a stud guard he is. He's fabulous. He's just a veteran winner in college basketball." Surging with offensive confidence, if the Mountaineers hit shots again this weekend, they’ll be Final Four bound. Meanwhile, Gonzaga continues to be saddled with a ‘pointspread tax’ from the betting marketplace. The Zags spent months as the #1 team in the country AND the #1 pointspread team in the country, a most rare occurrence – the best spread teams don’t tend to be higher profile squads. Now that the markets have finally caught up and made a big enough adjustment, the Zags are facing the other side of that equation. The time to make money betting on Gonzaga was November, December and January. It’s surely worth noting that the Zags five ATS losses in their last eight games were more losses than they had ATS in their first 27 lined contests. Take West Virginia. |
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03-22-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Thunder | 97-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#759) Let me start with an excerpt from my pro-Philly write-up from earlier in the week, when the Sixers covered wire-2-wire in an OT loss at Orlando. Numbers have been slightly adjusted to reflect current realities. “The 76ers continue to be the gift that keeps on giving, the single best pointspread team in the NBA this year. They’ve covered seven in a row overall, including strong road efforts like a SU win at LA against the Lakers, an OT loss at Portland and a two point loss at Golden State against the mighty Warriors. This Rick Carlisle quote is worth noting after the Sixers destroyed Dallas last weekend: “Philadelphia has been one of the most fun teams to watch this year for me. I love the way they move the ball. I love how hard they play." While Philly continues to play hard every night and cover pointspreads better than any other team in the league, OKC is in a major flat spot tonight, primed for a lethargic effort. OKC is coming off an ugly beatdown at home in a statement game against Golden State. After tonight’s game, they get a three day break – their first since the All Star Game – followed by another statement game at Houston in national TV action on Sunday. It would be very hard for this team NOT to look past Philly this evening, bad news for any double digit favorite. Take the 76ers. |
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03-21-17 | Clippers -9 v. Lakers | 133-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Take the LA Clippers (#665) Any team that is interested in playing 48 minutes of solid basketball can beat the Lakers by whatever margin they want to! And make no mistake about it – the Clippers are interested tonight! This has been a remarkably one sided series in recent seasons. The Clips won the first two meetings this year by 16 and 9 points. They swept the season series last year, with winning margins of 10, 22, 12 and 10, on the heels of a 4-0 season sweep in 2014-15 that included a pair of 25+ point blowouts. In the battle for LA, after decades of futility, the Clippers are the dominant team, and they aim to keep it that way! The Clips have played extended stretches of mediocre basketball this season, dealing with extended injury losses to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, their two best players. They went 3-9 ATS through a dozen games after the All Star Break, getting Paul back in the lineup and acclimated with his teammates. That was then. This is now. The Clippers have absolutely dominated their last two opponents, beating the Cavs by 30 and following that up with a win over the Knicks in a game that they led by 25 going into the fourth quarter before Doc Rivers emptied his bench, keeping everybody’s legs fresh for the second of back-2-backs tonight. This is an emerging, value laden team right now, playing with intensity down the stretch. The Lakers are anything but an emerging, value laden team right now; in full-on tank mode. They have one win in their last 14 games dating back to before the All Star Break while losing seven times by a dozen points or more; a team that has all but given up on the defensive end of the court. The numbers don’t lie. Since the All Star Break, LA has allowed a truly woeful 113.8 points per 100 possessions. The worst defensive team of the last decade –the 2009 Sacramento Kings—allowed 111.9. That’s how bad the Lakers are right now. Coming off a pair of relatively competitive losses, look for the Lakers to sink down to their normal level of play against a motivated foe tonight. Take the Clippers. |
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03-21-17 | Bucks +4.5 v. Blazers | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#663) The Bucks have shown real ‘bet-on’ potential in recent weeks; playing their best ball of the season right now! Since a 1-3 stretch immediately following the All Star Break, Milwaukee is 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, including a pair of SU wins as underdogs against the Clippers. They are 2-2 on this current West Coast trip, but they’re coming off an ugly 25 point loss at Golden State over the weekend. Rookie guard Malcolm Brogdon, following that loss to the Warriors: “There are no excuses, but we were fatigued. If your second game of a back-to-back is against one of the very best teams, it's tough. Fatigue plays a factor, but it's not the reason we lost. Guys were just a little bit drained, especially playing a team that moves as much and passes as much (as the Warriors). It was a test.” The Bucks fatigue factor on Saturday was very real, playing their sixth game in nine days and 10th game in 15 days. But now they’ve had two full days to rest up for Portland, and they’re locked in a tight playoff race for the final spots in the Eastern Conference. I love this ‘bet-on’ quote from guard Matthew Dellavedova with two games remaining on this West Coast swing: “We're not aiming for .500 (on the trip). We want to keep getting better." Milwaukee’s superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, is coming off a dismal game against the Warriors, held to only nine points. Meanwhile, Portland’s superstar, Damian Lillard, scored a league high 35 points per game on 55% shooting (59% from three point range) while hitting all 36 of his free throw attempts last week. I’d give Giannis the ‘upside’ edge tonight! Portland is in a ‘fat and happy’ spot, returning home off a 4-1 mark on their five game road trip, including three straight wins to close out the roadie, all as underdogs. But we’re talking about a team who’s defensive deficiencies have been extremely problematic for them in the home favorite’s role; cashing just once in six tries. Even that one cover came with an asterisk – it was against the league worst Nets, and Brooklyn hung 116 on the Blazers, overcome only because Portland hit 16-25 from three point range. I’m not expecting a three point shooting night like that here! Take the Bucks. |
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03-21-17 | Bulls v. Raptors -6.5 | 120-122 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#652) This is very much a statement game for Toronto. The Raptors have lost 11 straight meetings against the Bulls, despite the fact that the Raptors have been the better of these two teams for the vast majority of this losing streak. Toronto head coach Dwane Casey following the Raptors dominating win over the Pacers on Sunday: “From start to finish, I thought it was a solid contribution offensively and defensively. Set the tone defensively from start to finish from the jump ball. That's the way we have to play and continue. Whatever we have to do to get this (monkey) off our back against Chicago, they beat us 11 in a row and that has to stop. Collectively, whatever we have to do defensively and offensively to set the tone, we have to do that." The Raptors have been languishing in the doldrums since winning their first three after the All Star Break, just 5-5 SU with a sub .500 ATS mark. But they’ve played much better on both ends of the court since DeMarre Carroll returned to the lineup last weekend, connecting on a dozen three pointers against Indiana – their first double digit three pointer game in the last seven contests. This team is an undervalued commodity right now, and they’re coming in to this game with a real chip on their collective shoulders. The Bulls are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture right now, and with Dwayne Wade’s season ending injury, Chicago does not have the feel of a team primed for a strong late season run. The Bulls are coming off a solid win against Utah, but this team has consistently been unable to string good performances together, without a single win or even a pointspread cover coming off a victory since February. Take the Raptors. |
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03-20-17 | 76ers +5 v. Magic | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#601) I can do this write-up in a single sentence: The Orlando Magic cannot be favored, especially coming off a rare SU win! The results don’t lie. Orlando had a couple of short winning streaks (two and three games) in November and December. The last time the Magic won back-2-back games came right after Christmas, nearly three full months ago. Orlando off a single win since December 27th? 0-9 SU, with recent losses coming by 40, 28, 27 and 11 points (to the Knicks!) – non-competitive efforts. Coming off a rare win in Phoenix, the Magic are ‘bet-against’ here! Orlando as a favorite has been every bit as bad as Orlando off a win. My numbers show the Magic with the single weakest homecourt edge in the NBA, with just 10 pointspread covers in 34 previous home games. No surprise, then, that Orlando is 3-12 ATS in their 15 tries as chalk this season – they’ve covered only one pointspread ALL YEAR when laying -5 or more like they are tonight. They’ve lost straight up in each of their last four tries when laying -2 or higher and haven’t covered a single pointspread at -2 or higher since that two game winning streak over Christmas. The 76ers continue to be the gift that keeps on giving, the single best pointspread team in the NBA this year. They’ve covered six in a row overall, including strong road efforts like a SU win at LA against the Lakers, an OT loss at Portland and a two point loss at Golden State against the mighty Warriors. This Rick Carlisle quote is worth noting after the Sixers destroyed Dallas over the weekend: “Philadelphia has been one of the most fun teams to watch this year for me. I love the way they move the ball. I love how hard they play." Those are NOT the type of quotes I’ve been reading about the Magic from opposing head coaches……Take the 76ers. |
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03-20-17 | UCF v. Illinois State UNDER 128 | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Illinois State – UCF UNDER (#615-616) If you’ve never heard or seen UCF 7-6, 300 pound low post stud Tacko Fall, tune in to ESPN tonight and Watch this shotblocking behemoth disrupt the Illinois State offense. UCF is the #1 team in the country in defensive field goal percentage allowed and #6 nationally in scoring defense. Fall was the AAC Defensive Player of the Year while setting a school record for blocked shots in a season. Illinois State knows what they’re up against. Head coach Dan Muller: “It's impressive how much he's improved in the last two years. It's not like he's this big guy who can't move. He's a good player. It's hard to simulate in practice.” Redbirds junior forward MiKyle McIntosh: “I've never played against anyone that tall. It's kind of cool. But at the same time you have to come out and play basketball. You can't worry about it. It will affect your shot if you keep worrying he's going to block it or alter it." The only problem with that theory is that Fall is worth worrying about! Illinois State faced an uptempo foe in the first round of the NIT, draining 13 three pointers while hitting 53% overall from the field in a rout over UC Irvine. Expect a very different pace tonight between these two plodding, methodical halfcourt teams. And it’s certainly not like the Redbirds are defensive slouches! Illinois State, like UCF, is a Top 10 team nationally in both field goal percentage defense and scoring defense. Muller’s squad is 9-3 to the Under in their last dozen games. Every one of those contests was totaled in a similar range as tonight’s contest; all between 119.5 and 137.5. First one to 60 wins here, in a game that has ‘defensive struggle’ written all over it! Take the Under. |
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03-19-17 | USC +7.5 v. Baylor | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take USC (#725) In just about every recent season we’ve seen one team ride the wave from a ‘play in’ game victory all the way to the Sweet 16. And USC certainly has that potential here, with the current seven point spread offering us a legitimate bargain to support the Trojans on Sunday in a play worthy of Big Ticket status! Baylor is a classic case of a team that peaked in January. Remember, this team was #1 in the country for a few days after starting 15-0. Obviously, they are not the #1 team in the country, or anything close. And from a value standpoint, the Bears have been a nightmare for their supporters since that hot start, a 40% ATS squad since the calendar turned to 2017. Coming off a game in which they shot 57% from the floor and 90% from the free throw line while finishing +17 on the glass – yet the game was still tied after halftime – I’m expecting the Bears to have a much tougher time here as they step up in class. And for a program with a consistent track record of failure in March under Scott Drew, expect the Bears to have their fair share of struggles in Tulsa on Sunday USC has stepped up in class plenty of late, facing UCLA, Arizona and Oregon twice each down the stretch of their PAC-12 campaign. And this game sets up well for the Trojans. They didn’t burn all their energy in Vegas last weekend, losing to UCLA by a bucket in their second game. They had time to physically recover before their flight to Dayton for the Play in Game. Their win over SMU was another confidence boost for a team with great potential, and now, after the whirlwind of the past week, they get normal prep time without travel to face the Bears. Here’s what SMU’s Tim Jankovich said following the Mustangs loss to the Trojans on Friday, unable to penetrate the USC zone defense: “They've got great size. That's one of the real factors in how good your zone is, and they are very big, very, very big, and they're very athletic. I thought it was the most active they've played it in any of the games that we watched. So give them credit for that." Size is Baylor’s biggest edge, with 6-10 Johnathan Motley and seven footer Jo Lual-Acuil manning the low post and leading to a +8 rebounding margin average for the full season. But with Bennie Boatwright, Chimizie Metu, and Nick Rakocevic all standing at 6-10 or taller, the Trojans can bang with the Bears in the paint; start to finish. USC head coach Andy Enfield is the antithesis of Scott Drew when it come to tournament settings; a coach with a great track record of success, particularly as an underdog. Enfield took Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 – that’s how he got the USC job – with a 6-0 ATS run from the start of the Atlantic Sun tournament until their Big Dance exit, cashing four times as underdogs. Enfield has gone 7-3 ATS in postseason play with USC, including a 5-2 ATS mark as an underdog. In USC’s last two tries as a dog, they covered wire-2-wire, losing by only 2 to UCLA and beating SMU straight up. Both of those teams are better than Baylor…… Big Ticket: Take USC. |
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03-19-17 | Michigan +3 v. Louisville | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#721) To call John Beilein an elite level tournament coach is something of an understatement. Prior to the Wolverines ‘bad beat’ spread loss to Oklahoma State on a buzzer beater three pointer on Friday, Beilein was 19-7 ATS in the Big Dance, including an 11-5 ATS mark at Michigan. And that’s not even counting Michigan’s success in the Big 10 tourney (4-0 SU and ATS this year, 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS since 2013). I want our money ON John Beilein in short turnaround tournament settings, plain and simple. Rick Pitino has ‘elite level coach’ plastered all over him by the national media. Pitino in the postseason? He’s 0-2 ATS this year and just 3-5 ATS in the Big Dance since Louisville cut down the nets against Michigan in the 2013 national title game. That Louisville team was loaded with NBA talent. This year’s team is not – Michigan arguably has the more talented roster here. Louisville does two things very well. They dominate the glass, winning the rebounding battle by margin on a consistent basis. And their pressure defense forces turnovers in bunches, leading to easy fast break buckets. Louisville is likely to win the battle of the boards here – rebounding is not an area of strength for this Michigan squad. But the Wolverines just beat Oklahoma State despite a -18 mark on the boards. They beat Wisconsin despite a -6 and beat Minnesota despite a -16. And that’s just in their last three games! Michigan has been overcoming negative rebounding differentials all year; not a deal breaker when they face a strong rebounding opponent. The Wolverines certainly have the type of guard play I’m looking for when it comes to overcoming the Louisville defensive pressure. Michigan turns the ball over less than nine times per game, with Derrick Walton Jr and Zak Irvin both making excellent decisions with the basketball; an elite guard duo. I’ve yet to see a team all year rattle those veteran guards. When Louisville gets forced into a halfcourt game -- without generating easy transition buckets – they have struggled repeatedly this season. The Cardinals are not a great offensive team, by any stretch of the imagination. They don’t hit free throws – another Michigan area of strength – and their own ball handling is a long way from being elite. Look for Michigan’s remarkable run to last for at least one more game…at least from a pointspread perspective! Take Michigan. |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10 | 73-79 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Gonzaga (#530) We’ve got a clear ‘Bet-on’ vs. a clear ‘bet against’ here, making this double digit pointspread look rather cheap to this bettor. Let’s start with the ‘bet-against’ element of the equation. Northwestern, obviously, has no history of making deep tournament runs – in any tournament. These same kids got bounced out of the Big 10 tourney in their first game in 2015 and 2016, winning only one tourney game in each of the two years before that. Their last trip to the NIT, in 2012, ended following a single, two point win. And yet, here they are this year, coming off a gift victory over Vanderbilt, now playing their fifth game in the last ten days – their most grueling stretch of the season – and stepping way up in class against a team with something to prove. We saw Northwestern in a similar spot last weekend after knocking off Maryland in the Big 10 tourney. Against Wisconsin in their next game, the Wildcats lost contact; a 28 point defeat that was essentially over by halftime. And I sure as hell don’t want the Wildcats 48 hours after their gift win against Vandy, with ‘we’ve accomplished something’ quotes coming from head coach Chris Collins. While Northwestern is fat and happy, Gonzaga is hungry and primed to make a serious statement following their lethargic opening round win over a bottom tier foe. The Zags hit less than 40% from the floor, had more turnovers than assists and made only 8 of 18 free throw attempts vs. South Dakota State. Point guard Nigel Williams Goss: “We were able to grind out a tough game, not a pretty game. It feels good when you win a game when you know you didn't play your best." This is a motivated favorite with an elite level ‘A’ game primed to dismantle the outmanned Wildcats. Take Gonzaga. |
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03-17-17 | Wichita State v. Dayton +6 | 64-58 | Push | 0 | 51 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Dayton (#832) KISS write-up here – I’m keeping this one simple. While the talking heads on TV were ranting and raving about how Wichita State was criminally underseeded (which they are), nobody was saying a word about the Dayton Flyers. First, let me talk about the Shockers for a moment. Yes, Wichita State is a very good team. But this was no banner year for the Missouri Valley Conference, to put it mildly. There’s a reason that Illinois State, who went 17-1 in conference play, didn’t get an at-large bid. Against other Big Dance teams in non-conference play, the Shockers went 0-3 SU and ATS. And it’s surely worth noting the pointspreads in those games – Wichita was FAVORED over Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State, just like they are favored here. There are no pointspread bargains when it comes to Wichita State this year, plain and simple. That’s not the case for Dayton! The Flyers have stepped up in class remarkably well this year, suffering only one pointspread loss as an underdog ALL YEAR. Even that loss comes with an asterisk – it was back before Thanksgiving when they were 2.5 point underdogs against St Mary’s and lost by four. Of the Flyers seven losses this year, six of them came by six points or less; a team that executes their offense extremely well down the stretch of tight games . Against this pointspread, the Flyers would be 29-1-1 ATS this year. Dayton is deep. They’re athletic. They’re well coached. They’re veteran. They value possessions. They play sticky defense. Sounds a lot like Wichita, right? Flyers head coach Archie Miller is a ‘bet-on’ guy in the Big Dance, especially off a bad loss to Syracuse in the first round last year. After back-2-back Sweet 16 runs over the past two years, Gregg Marshall’s squad will be hard pressed to survive and advance at all, let alone winning this one by margin. Take Dayton. |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton | 84-72 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Rhode Island (#843) The Bluejays were a legitimately elite team for the first two months of the season, going 18-1 out of the gate. That stretch included wins over Wisconsin, Ole Miss, NC State (before their collapse), Nebraska (before their collapse), Arizona State, Seton Hall, Providence and Butler among others. At the time, after all of those impressive victories, Creighton was power rated like a juggernaut. Then point guard Mo Watson got hurt (8.5 assists per game, by far the #1 assist man in the nation!) and the Bluejays season went south in a hurry. Creighton went 7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games. And it’s surely worth noting who those five of those six pointspread covers came against: DePaul (twice), St John’s, Georgetown and Xavier right after the Musketeers suffered a massive injury loss themselves – all bad teams. The Blue Jays last win against a top tier foe came back in January, but all of those impressive early season victories are still on their resume and still inflating both their seeding and their power rating for pointspreads. Rhode Island is on the other end of the equation. The Rams did not play their best basketball, struggling SU and ATS early and often in November, December and into January. Key contributors like senior low post stud Hassan Martin, junior point guard Jarvis Garrett missed time, and the team didn’t immediately jell upon either guys’ return to the lineup. That was then. This is now. Unburdened by any inflated pointspreads due to their mediocrity for months, Danny Hurley’s squad finally put it together down the stretch: 8-0 SU 6-2 ATS in their last eight games; 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14. This was a fringe Top 25 squad coming into the season, playing at that level here in March. Creighton is not. In a near pick ‘em priced game, that matters! Take Rhode Island. |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon OVER 151.5 | Top | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 46 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oregon – Iona OVER (#841-842) If you watched the NIT openers on Tuesday, you saw Ole Miss racing up and down the floor against Monmouth, hanging 91 points on the Hawks, shooting 52% from the field in the process; a game that flew Over the total by margin. What does that have to do with Oregon – Iona? Plenty! Iona and Monmouth were among the top few teams in the MAAC again this year. Iona’s defense is very comparable to Monmouth’s – weak. Their only shot blocker, Taylor Bessick, gets off the bench for only 14 minutes per game. They don’t force turnovers with ball pressure, they give up more than their fair share of transition buckets. Head coach Tim Cluess is clue-less in the Big Dance, a the Gaels have yet to cover a pointspread during his tenure thanks to those consistent defensive woes. In their opener last year the Gaels hung 81 on Iowa State…and lost by double digits, failing to cover the spread, in a game that flew over the total by double digits. In their NIT opener in 2015, they allowed 88 to Rhode Island, a game that flew Over the total by double digits. It was the same story in the NIT in 2014 (Louisiana Tech scored 89, the game flew Over by double digits) and the NCAA Tournament in 2013 (95 allowed to Ohio State, game flew Over by double digits). Look for Oregon’s remarkably efficient offense to run circles around the Gaels – the Ducks are a legit threat to hit 90 or higher in this ballgame. Iona has made the postseason every year despite these defensive deficiencies because Cluess sure knows how to coach offense – his teams put the biscuit in the basket, with four double digit scorers again this year (and two more who average just under ten points per game). And when we talk about impact injuries on the defensive end of the court, the Ducks loss of shot blocking center Chris Boucher really stands out. Boucher was not a great offensive player, but he was a low post difference maker on defense. In their first game without him in the lineup, the Ducks flew Over the total by more than 20 points in the PAC-12 championship game. Late season impact injuries on defense create confusion in the betting markets; markets that react more to full season stats than to any guesswork when it comes to how an injury will affect a total. That gives us a strong ‘positive expectation’ opportunity here, worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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03-17-17 | Seton Hall +1 v. Arkansas | 71-77 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#823) Last year in March, Seton Hall went on a remarkable run through the Big East tournament, knocking off eventual national champ Villanova in the title game to earn an automatic bid to the Big Dance. After the adrenaline and excitement from that conference tourney run came to an end, the Pirates looked flat and disjointed in their Big Dance opener in a non-competitive loss to Gonzaga. That was then. This is now. The Pirates didn’t use up all their energy in the Big East tourney this year, losing a tight, two point game to ‘Nova in the second round. And this year, instead of ‘happy to be here’, Kevin Willard’s squad is poised to make a little bit of noise this time around; in sharp contrast to an Arkansas team that missed the Big Dance last year and hasn’t covered a spread in a postseason tourney since 2014! Seton Hall plays sticky defense (top 40 nationally), as we saw in the Big East semi’s, holding mighty ‘Nova to 55 points. They’ve got great veteran leadership at the guard spots with Khadeen Carrington and Madison Jones, to go along with veterans Desi Rodriguez on the wing and Angel Delgado – the nation’s leading rebounder -- in the low post. And this Pirates team is peaking at the right time once again, playing their best basketball of the season here in March; a squad who’s full season stats and power rating number doesn’t tell the true story of where they’re at right now. Take Seton Hall. |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Michigan | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma State (#827) John Beilein is one heck of a tournament coach, as we saw once again in the Big 10 Tourney this year. From a pointspread perspective, Beilein ranks as ‘elite’ here in March. The betting markets certainly recognize that fact, hence the love for the Wolverines in the betting markets this week – the same betting markets that loss their collective asses betting against Michigan in their remarkable run to the Big 10 Tournament title. Well guess what. Brad Underwood is one heck of a tourney coach too! He got this job because of his success in the postseason at Stephen F Austin; dominating West Virginia as a first round underdog last year. And his Cowboys are primed to make some noise with a small upset here in the first round again this year. Michigan rode the magic wave of adrenaline, guile and key miscues (and missed free throws) from their opponents to win that Big 10 Tourney Title; four games in four days following their near-death experience at the Willow Run Airport near Ann Arbor. I expect them to be hard pressed to find that same energy and magic here; a clear ‘bet-against’ team in their opening round game. And Michigan is such a weak defensive team (50% shooting allowed away from home, no shot blocker, no great on-ball defender, no defensive stopper), that a great offensive team like Oklahoma State is primed to exploit them! The Cowboys went 8-3 ATS as an underdog this year, consistently stepping up well against quality foes. It’s their offense that’s the difference maker, bad news for Michigan on the defensive end of the court. The Cowboys rank #1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency; the second best college basketball offense of the last TEN YEARS, with point guard Jawun Evans flashing NBA upside. Here’s the quote from Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard: “Brad has really good players. He has an NBA point guard (Juwan Evans), one of the all-time great Big 12 players in (Phil) Forte, and in my opinion he has the most improved player, not only in Big 12, but in college basketball with (Jeffrey) Carroll. He has young players who really play their roles and play productive minutes.” Following a pair of losses to elite teams to close out the regular season, this is a step DOWN In class for the Cowboys; a game I expect them to win in straight up fashion. The 2.5 points give us a nice little ‘buzzer beater’ cushion should we need it. Take Oklahoma State. |
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03-16-17 | Nevada v. Iowa State OVER 156 | 73-84 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State – Nevada OVER (#729-730) It’s not hard to make a case betting Iowa State Over the total for their Big Dance opener against Nevada. After all, the betting markets haven’t been pricing Cyclones totals correctly for months! Iowa State has cashed nine straight Overs, including a 3-0 mark to the Over in the normally bogged down Big 12 Tournament; pushing the pace at every opportunity. A team that started the season 2-8 to the Under is 16-4 to the Over since. And it’s surely worth noting that all four Unders during that span came against teams looking to slow the Cyclones down into a half court game (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas St and Kansas). Nevada has a couple of things in common with Iowa State. First and foremost, like the Cyclones with four strong scorers averaging at least 12 points a game, four Wolfpack starters average at least 14 points per game. Defenses can’t concentrate on stopping one or two guys for either of these two squads; and both teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard even in a game where a handful of shooters are having an off night. No surprise, then, that Nevada, too, is trending strongly to the Over of late: 3-0 to Over in the Mountain West Tournament in Vegas; 6-1 to the Over in their last seven. The Wolfpack scored at least 79 points in each and every one of those seven contests despite a modest 46% shooting mark during that span – it’s been pace and offensive execution, not just hot shooting. So when Nevada and Iowa State match up in Milwaukee on Friday Night, we can expect a high scoring affair. These are two strong offensive teams playing at the top of their game right now, and the Bradley Center in Milwaukee is an excellent venue for shooters. Throw in a decent chance of late game ‘scramble’ points in this spread range and there’s ample reason to expect a wild, highly entertaining shootout in late action on Thursday. Take the Over. |
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03-16-17 | Vermont v. Purdue -9 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Purdue (#732) The betting markets are not impressed with the Big 10 in general, and there’s certainly no groundswell of support to back a Purdue team that stumbled down the stretch with a pair of losses to Michigan. That leaves the Boilermakers as a seriously undervalued commodity heading into the Big Dance; a team with a ‘Final Four’ type statistical profile. And make no mistake about it – Purdue has something to prove here, right from the opening round. The Boilermakers got knocked off in the first round last year by Arkansas Little Rock in double overtime; a game where Purdue blew a 13 point lead in the final four minutes of regulation, a complete meltdown. The Big 10 regular season champ played at an elite level for extended stretches this season, and they’re coming into the Big Dance with a bit of a chip on their shoulders, primed for an opening round smackdown. It’s surely worth noting how good Purdue has been in this role this year, 12-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or higher. Vermont’s ‘big man’ is 6-8, 215 pounder Payton Hanson. Hanson has absolutely no chance to control the paint against 6-9, 250 Caleb Swanigan, an elite scorer with NBA potential. 7-2, 290 pounder Isaac Haas is an ever tougher matchup for the Catamounts, not to mention 6-8 Vince Edwards. Expect Purdue to control the paint on both ends of the floor, and win the battle of the boards by margin. If the Catamounts choose to sag into the paint to defend the Boilermakers low post studs, it’ll get even worse for the underdog. Purdue connected on more than 40% of their three point tries this year, ranked #4 in the country in three point shooting. Matt Painter’s inside-out offensive gameplan is nightmarish for Vermont to defend These two teams met last year. Vermont hit 48% from the floor and nailed 20 of their 24 free throw attempts, an excellent shooting game against a Big 10 foe. They still lost by 28, completely overwhelmed by the Boilermakers size and athleticism. It’s hard to picture the Catamounts shooting much better than 48% from the floor and 83% from the line in this one. Vermont faced three tourney teams during non-conference play this season. The lost to South Carolina, Providence and Butler by a combined 52 points, losing by at least a dozen in every one of those games. Purdue is better than all three of those squads, primed to win this one by a comfortable, double digit margin. Big Ticket: Take Purdue. |
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03-16-17 | Nets +4 v. Knicks | 121-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#707) I can do this write-up in a single sentence: The Knicks can’t be favored, especially coming off a rare win. New York knocked off Indiana on Tuesday; only the third time all year that they’ve won a game without scoring 100 points. The Knicks haven’t won back-2-back games since before Christmas: 0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS following a single victory. Their best young player, Kristaps Porzingas, is downgraded to doubtful tonight. And this quote from Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the concept of ‘Let’s lay points with the Knicks’: “The playoffs may not be in reach, but this especially could be for other young guys to get some time to show what they really can do. Until you're mathematically done, you're always going for it, but sometimes it's realistic." The Knicks are 3-7 in their last ten tries as favorites….and that’s SU, not ATS! Two of the three SU wins as chalk came in games that they won by five points or less; both one possession games in the final minute. Brooklyn beat their in-city rivals at home last week, and I expect them to do the same at Madison Square Garden tonight. Take the Nets. |
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03-16-17 | Vanderbilt -1.5 v. Northwestern | 66-68 | Loss | -101 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#739) At this time of the year, I’m always interested in supporting teams who’s full season numbers don’t accurately reflect their current realities. These are teams that I consider to be value laden squads. And Vanderbilt is certainly at or near the top of my list of ‘late season morphers’ – teams that are playing at a very different level right now than their full season power rating would indicate. Make no mistake about it – Vanderbilt is one of those teams. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Vandy write-up from the SEC tournament last weekend. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “Flying waaaaaay underneath the radar, Vandy is as hot as any team in college basketball right now: 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine ballgames. The Commodores are playing stifling defense – four of their last six opponents have made 20 shots or less against them in the 40 minutes of regulation basketball. Vandy hits their free throws, better than 77% for the full season, Top 10 in the country. Bryce Drew’s teams have enjoyed tournament success before at Valpo, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Vandy knocks off Florida in SU fashion for the third time this season.” The Commodores did not respond well after their OT win over the Gators, coming up flat the next day against Arkansas. But with 7-1 Luke Kornet eating up rebounds and blocking shots in the low post, Riley LeChance avoiding turnovers like the plague at the point, and Matthew Fisher Davis and Jeff Roberson filling up the bucket, this team has plenty of scoring options. They also have continuity, even in Drew’s first season on the job. Drew’s nine man rotation has COMBINED to miss just two games all year – their lack of injuries has led to a vastly improved oncourt chemistry compared to where they were four months ago! Northwestern finally ended their tournament drought because the Big 10 lacked elite teams this year. But unlike Vandy, the Wildcats are in the ‘happy to be here’ category. And Northwestern’s issues against strong defensive teams and strong rebounding teams are primed to rear their head’s again here. Short chalk worth laying! Take Vanderbilt. |
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03-15-17 | Kings v. Suns -5.5 | 107-101 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Phoenix (#618) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winners here in March supporting the Phoenix Suns. Tonight provides another rock solid opportunity to cash in supporting this under-the-radar late season moneymaker. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Suns write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: ‘I’ve got a big buy’ sign on the Phoenix Suns right now, with the betting markets getting the wrong read on management’s decision to start playing the young guys. Veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight have essentially been benched, creating playing time for the Suns emerging talent. The markets knee jerk reaction: ‘Phoenix is tanking’! ‘But the exact opposite has been true. The Suns have averaged 117 points per game over their last five contests since Earl Watson’s rotation change, hanging at least 100 points in every game while going 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS. ‘The biggest reason for the Suns recent, under-the-radar surge has been their bench play. Rookie Tyler Ulis is getting his first substantial playing time, and he’s been great. Head coach Earl Watson, following the win over Charlotte last week: “Tyler Ulis changed the game.’ And that came BEFORE Ulis hit the game winner against Boston. ‘Second year forward Alan Williams had 41 combined points in the Suns first 44 games this year. Williams now has seven double doubles in his last nine games. This squad is worth paying very close attention to; a team that is waaaaaaay off the radar for the vast majority of bettors.’ We’re catching the Suns off a bad home loss to the Blazers last time out; a ‘bet-on’ spot. Sacramento is in the exact opposite situation. The Kings are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS since dealing away DeMarcus Cousins at the trading deadline. One of those wins came on Monday against Orlando; a contest where the Kings disjointed offense was saved by a bevy of made three pointers. Six different Kings hit at least two three pointers as Sacramento shot 53% from downtown. Despite the fact that it was a night where everything was falling for the Kings shooters, they were still ‘life and death’ to win the game. On a night where those shots aren’t falling, the Kings have routinely been getting crushed. And Sacramento off a win is about as ‘bet-against’ as it gets at the NBA level. Take the Suns. |
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03-15-17 | Akron v. Houston -8 | 78-75 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#630) Akron was the class of the MAC with a 14-4 mark during the regular season, 26-8 overall. But it’s going to be very hard for the Zips to play at their regular season capabilities tonight following a crushing loss to Kent in the MAC Championship Game last weekend, relegating the Zips to the NIT for the second consecutive year. Make no mistake about it – that loss to the Golden Flashes was absolutely devastating for this team, as their head coach will tell you Zips head coach Keith Dambrot: “It’s more emotional preparation than physical preparation at this point. Do we have enough in our tank emotionally coming off two disappointments two years in a row to play a good game in the NIT? That’s probably the toughest challenge I’m going to face as a coach, trying to motivate my guys…… I think we’ll play but it’s not easy, emotionally, on them.” Junior guard Antino Jackson: “You know, it’s kind of emotional. This is the second year in the row this has happened to me, so I’m taking it pretty rough.” To make matters even worse, Coach Dambrot is giving his team excuse after excuse for a no-show tonight. “For the life of me, I don’t think we’ve been treated fairly by the NIT yet. Last year we should have had a home game.” When a coach complains about seeding from last year, it’s NEVER a positive sign for his team’s performance moving forward. Even with three key contributors from the Houston area as a motivator, this is not a spot for Akron to bring anything resembling their ‘A’ game. This is not a true home game for Houston, playing on the Texas Southern University campus due to renovations to Hofheinz Pavilion. But the Cougs are relishing this opportunity, with one positive quote after the next from a squad that got bounced out of the NIT in an opening round road loss last year - -Kelvin Sampson’s squad is coming to play tonight, something I can’t say with confidence about their opponent. Expect a comfortable win for the favorite….Take Houston. |
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03-14-17 | Blazers +4 v. Pelicans | 77-100 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#537) My clients and I have cashed a couple of winners betting against New Orleans since their blockbuster deal at the trading deadline to pick up DeMarcus Cousins. The Pelicans are just 3-6 SU since that trade. One win came against the tanking Lakers, the single worst team in the league right now. A second win came against the Pistons on the second night of back-2-backs off a wild, come-from-behind OT win the previous night. The third win came in OT against a Charlotte team that is a woeful 6-17 SU in their last 23. That win came with Cousins sitting on the bench throughout the Pelicans run in the fourth quarter and overtime, not exactly acclimating well to his new surroundings. The Pelicans have been an easy, consistent fade off a single victory. Since the calendar turned to 2017, New Orleans has won consecutive games only twice, both on road trips and one of which came against the hapless Knicks and Nets. There’s not much of a homecourt edge for New Orleans these days, just 1-4 SU in their last five at home, 5-8 SU in their last 13. And when we’re talking about a team that has a grand total of eight wins and covers as a favorite all year, fading them as chalk following a big steam move driving the line up in early betting action is a no-brainer for this bettor! The Blazers are 5-1 SU in their last six, the lone loss coming on a controversial buzzer beater against the Wizards. They’ve dominated this series to the tune of 7 -2 SU & ATS in the last nine meetings, including a comfortable 15 point victory the last time they met. Big man Josef Nurkic has been an immediate impact player for Portland since they picked him up at the trading deadline, giving the Blazers some much needed low post muscle to bang in the paint with the Pelicans bigs. But more than anything else, it’s quotes like this one from All Star point guard Damian Lillard that stand out in favor of the Blazers tonight. "We're fighting. I think that's what it comes down to. It's not always a perfect game. It's not always a pretty game. But down the stretch, we have a chance in every game. I just like that we're competing, we're playing with a lot of pride, we're playing like we care about where our season goes." Take the Blazers. |
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03-14-17 | Valparaiso v. Illinois -8.5 | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#552) Illinois fired head coach John Groce over the weekend, after the Illini were bounced from the Big 10 Tournament. But the rest of the Illini coaching staff was retained for the NIT Tournament, and interim head coach Jamall Walker appears to be pushing all the right buttons for a team that played pretty good basketball down the stretch. Walker said not much will change in terms of offense, defense or personnel, coming out of practice that he ‘liked’. Walker: “You only have 48 hours so my job is to basically get them mentally ready to go. This isn’t my team and to be honest it wasn’t John Groce’s team. It’s Tracy Abrams’ team. It’s Malcolm Hill’s team. It’s Maverick Morgan’s team. They will determine what they want to show. I told them that. What do you want to show? We talk about legacy around here. They still have an opportunity to show what they’re about. We use basketball as a platform for that. They have a great opportunity to show what kind of character they have.” Senior Malcolm Hill talked about the Illini loss at Alabama in the first round of the NIT two years ago, when Alabama had just fired head coach Anthony Grant. “The one thing I do remember is that Alabama had just fired their head coach and they were really inspired to play for him. If we take that same mindset, that would be good for us. Alabama played inspired… that’s how we should be.” Valpo’s season essentially ended when their best player – the Horizon League Player of the Year, Alec Peters and his 23 points/10 rebounds per game – suffered a season ending injury in late February. Since the injury, the Crusaders have only one win – all the way back on February 24th. In their only game in the past 17 days, Valpo scored 41 points and lost outright as nine point chalk; not exactly a squad in mid-season form right now. This quote from first year, first time head coach Matt Lottich after their Horizon League tourney early exit is ‘coach-speak’ at it’s finest. Read between the lines here and you can sense Lottich is not the most confident guy heading into this matchup: “We’re going to continue to fight and we’re going to continue to practice…. love this group, I love coaching them. They never make excuses, they continue to push forward. They give me everything they’ve got. That’s all I can ask.” Even if the Crusaders bring it, ‘everything they’ve got’ won’t be enough here. Take Illinois. |
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03-13-17 | Magic +2 v. Kings | 115-120 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#515) Orlando’s full season record is 24-43. Sacramento’s is 25-41. But that’s about where the comparison’s end for these two squads right now. The Kings are what are; a sorry squad loaded with second tier players on their way to another lottery finish. Since dealing DeMarcus Cousins away, Sacramento has one win, beating Denver in the Nuggets first game out of the All Star Break. Since that time, they are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS, playing exactly as you’d expect this team to play – disjointed basketball on both ends of the court. During this entire span, the Kings have only gotten a 20 point game out of a player three times; a squad without a ‘go-to’ scorer during crunch time. Winning games is not exactly a priority in Sacramento these days, bad news for the Kings in a game they’ll need to win in order to cover. Head coach Dave Joerger: ‘These (young) guys are playing.” The Magic got starting center Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup in a loss to the Cavs in their last contest. Prior to Vucevic’s injury, the Magic starting five of Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Terrance Ross, Even Fournier and Elfrid Payton were outscoring opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions since the All Star Break, the best mark in the NBA during that span. No surprise, then, that Orlando has started winning some games, beating Atlanta, Miami and Chicago in SU fashion since the break. They beat Sacramento by eight in the previous meeting this season, and won SU on this floor on each of their last two visits. Wrong team favored here! Take the Magic. |
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03-13-17 | Bucks +4 v. Grizzlies | 93-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#507) Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale made a chance to the Grizzlies rotations last week, taking Tony Allen and JaMychal Green out of the starting lineup, while putting Andrew Harrison and Brandon Wright in. His rationale behind the move? “We’re stale. Right now we’re 14-14 since January 1. It’s my job to shake it up.” Since that switch, the Grizzlies have been home favorites in three straight games. They’ve lost all three of those games in non-competitive fashion, losing by double digit margins each time, a whopping 65.5 points ATS. Fizdale benched Harrison and Wright prior to their last game, inserting Allen and James Ennis into the starting lineup against Atlanta. Again, it failed miserably. Point guard Mike Conley: “We're in our own heads right now. Individually, we are hesitant and we are doubting ourselves.” Memphis has been known for their defensive acumen for the better part of the last decade, a ‘grind it out’ squad if there ever was one. But since the All Star Break, the Grizzlies adjusted defensive efficiency ranks DEAD LAST in the NBA. Their rebounding has fallen to #24. This team has no business as chalk right now, especially to a surging Bucks team. Very quietly, waaaay under the radar, the Bucks are riding a 6-0 SU and ATS run. Milwaukee’s defense has gotten notably better in recent weeks, ranked #7 in the NBA since the break, a hidden benefit of the Jabari Parker injury. And with Kris Middleton rounding into mid-season form after missing the first four months of the season, this is a confident, ‘bet-on’ squad moving forward, in sharp contrast to their opponent tonight. Take the Bucks. |
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03-13-17 | Wizards v. Wolves -1 | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#510) This is the mother of all bad spots for the Washington Wizards; a clear ‘bet-against’ in this pointspread range. This is Washington’s fifth game in seven nights, all on the highway. They’ve won each of the first four games, a highly successful road trip regardless of how this finale plays out. And make no mistake about it – this team is gassed right here. At Sacramento on Friday and then again at Portland on Saturday, the Wizards rallied from 15+ points down to win the games in overtime. Washington gets no extra rest after this game, returning home for a game on Wednesday. They’ve got another long West Coast swing coming up later in the month. And head coach Scott Brooks has to be worried about managing his stars minutes, with both John Wall and Bradley Beal ranked among the top 20 in minutes per game. Minnesota has beaten the Jazz, Warriors and Clippers already here in March, while taking the Spurs to OT in San Antonio; a team that is stepping up in class very well these days. But Minnesota is coming off a disappointing loss at Milwaukee on the second night of back-2-backs on Saturday, negating the momentum from that Warriors upset victory. Karl Anthony Towns, following that defeat: “We got some good looks. I think we did a good job but it comes down to that they made shots. They made more shots than us in the fourth quarter. That's the game of basketball. We have to move on and get ready for Monday." It’s surely worth noting that the T-wolves are 5-0 SU & ATS following a loss over the past five weeks, an emerging trend worth riding here. Take the T-Wolves. |
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03-12-17 | Cavs v. Rockets -6 | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#878) This is not rocket science or brain surgery – it’s simple. The Cavaliers have 21 losses this season. They are 0-21 ATS in defeat – not once all year have they covered a pointspread in a game they didn’t win in SU fashion. As underdogs in any game on any floor, the Cavs are just 2-7 for the season ATS. This is not a game I expect Cleveland to win. Playing on the second night of back-2-backs, the Cavs are just 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS, consistently failing in this role. Tyrone Lue didn’t give his starters much of a break in their win at Orlando last night – Kyrie Irving played 36 minutes, LeBron James was on the floor for 38. The Cavs have four additional games on tap between now and next Sunday. LeBron ranks behind only Toronto’s Kyle Lowry in terms of minutes played per game this season. No surprise here if Coach Lue makes sure his superstars get ample rest here, if they suit up at all. Houston is a legitimate championship contender and this is very much a statement game for the rested, ready home favorite. Expect Houston to push the pace against the tired Cavs, forcing Lue to use his bench early and often. The Rockets have lost SU on this floor as -10 favorites against the Heat, -9 favorites against the Pacers and -8.5 point favorites against the Jazz in recent weeks. But when Houston is facing an opponent that catches their interest – a revenge meeting or a statement game – and they are ‘bet-on’ in every sense of the word. No surprise here if this one turns into a rout! Take the Rockets. |
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03-12-17 | Cincinnati +2 v. SMU | 56-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#891) Mick Cronin has been setting up his rotation for Sunday since the Bearcats blowout win over Tulsa on Friday. Cronin emptied his bench in the second half of that game – nobody on the roster reached 30 minutes of court time. In yesterday’s semi-final matchup, Cronin did it again, with only two starters reaching the 30 minute mark against UConn. It’s surely worth noting that the Bearcats shot only 38% from the floor against the Huskies, yet still won the game by a double digit margin. That stands in sharp contrast with the SMU portion of this equation. Tim Jankovich has a roster built for a deep NCAA tournament run – the Mustangs top six players are extremely talented and remarkably versatile. But in a short turnaround setting like this one, SMU’s complete and utter lack of depth is a real problem. Only those top six players saw the court yesterday and they combined for the 188 of SMU’s 200 minutes in Friday’s huge blown lead game against East Carolina. Adrenaline tends to run out by the finale in these ‘three games in three days’ settings. SMU has shot 55% from the floor and 47% from three point range in their last five games, including 53% shooting overall in this tournament. Now they’re facing a defensive juggernaut. Cinci has allowed only 38% shooting for the season, ranked #6 in the country in defensive efficiency. Don’t expect those SMU shots to fall at anywhere near the same rate today….. Take Cinci. |
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03-11-17 | Suns +6 v. Mavs | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Phoenix (#717) I’ve got a big buy’ sign on the Phoenix Suns right now, with the betting markets getting the wrong read on management’s decision to start playing the young guys. Veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight have essentially been benched, creating playing time for the Suns emerging talent. The markets knee jerk reaction: ‘Phoenix is tanking’! But the exact opposite has been true. The Suns have averaged 117 points per game over their last five contests since Earl Watson’s rotation change, hanging at least 109 points in every game while going 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS; the lone pointspread defeat coming in a game where Phoenix was favored. . The biggest reason for the Suns recent, under-the-radar surge has been their bench play. Rookie Tyler Ulis is getting his first substantial playing time, and he’s been great: averaging 10.8 points and 5.8 assists during this five game run. Head coach Earl Watson, following the win over Charlotte last week: “Tyler Ulis changed the game.’ And that came BEFORE Ulis hit the game winner against Boston. Second year forward Alan Williams had 41 combined points in the Suns first 44 games this year. Williams now has six double doubles in his last seven games. Rookie reserve Derrick Jones Jr is heating up as well. This squad is worth paying very close attention to; a team that is waaaaaaay off the radar for the vast majority of bettors. We’re catching the Suns off a dismal showing at home against the Lakers to close out their homestand; a legit motivator here. Devin Booker: “I think the Lakers felt like they had something to prove after the last time we played. They came out and showed that. We didn't have any fight tonight. It's really disappointing. We've beaten top teams, competed with thee top teams in the league. Every team's talented, but they (the Lakers) are one of the losing teams like us and we should have just come out here and competed hard." Watson: “(The Lakers) did a good job of just being the toughest team on the court from beginning to end.” I’m not expecting back-2-back no-shows for this team! The Suns gave the Mavs fits in both previous meetings, winning straight up in Dallas and hanging tough for the full 48 minutes in a five point loss down in Mexico City. They’re catching the Mavs ‘fat and happy’ off a 4-0 start to this homestand, with an East Coast swing that starts with tough games at Toronto and Washington as a lookahead distraction tonight. Live dog here! Take the Suns. |
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03-11-17 | Colorado State v. Nevada -5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#748) I’m keeping this one short & sweet. Nevada has been the class of this conference from Day 1 this year. They just beat the Rams by 13 on their home floor last weekend despite Colorado State hitting ten three pointers and 82% from the free throw line. The Wolfpack controlled the paint in that contest. And their quartet of double digit scorers – Marcus Marshall, Cam Oliver, Jordan Caroline and DJ Fenner – combined to get one good look after the next, with three of the four producing 18 points or more. Colorado State can’t match Nevada’s firepower. Four of their five starters played at least 34 minutes yesterday. Their best player, Gian Clavell, played all 40 minutes. Big man Emmanuel Omogbo was in for 36. This is not a team loaded with quality depth behind their top two players, and in a third game in three days situation, I don’t trust the Rams stars to bring their A’ game here. Bet the class…..Take Nevada. |
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03-11-17 | Vanderbilt -3.5 v. Arkansas | 62-76 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#739) My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner supporting the Commodores yesterday in their OT victory against Florida. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “ “Flying waaaaaay underneath the radar, Vandy is as hot as any team in college basketball right now: 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last eight ballgames. The Commodores are playing stifling defense – four of their last five opponents have made 20 shots or less against them in the 40 minutes of regulation basketball. Vandy hits their free throws, better than 77% for the full season, Top 10 in the country. Bryce Drew’s teams have enjoyed tournament success before at Valpo, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Vandy knocks off Florida in SU fashion for the third time this season.” Vandy also beat Arkansas pretty soundly, at Arkansas, less than a month ago. The Razorbacks had no answers for the Commodores size in the paint (Vandy won the rebounding battle by 13) and couldn’t hit a deep shot against Vandy’s defensive pressure on the perimeter. Arkansas won yesterday by a point against Ole Miss thanks to 87% free throw shooting and only ten turnovers. I’m not expecting a repeat in either category today! Take Vandy. |
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03-10-17 | Raptors +2.5 v. Hawks | 99-105 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#507) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Raptors on Wednesday in their outright upset victory at New Orleans. And I firmly expect Toronto to be in position to pull off another outright upset at Atlanta tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Raptors write-up: “After getting beaten by the Bucks in their last game on Saturday, the Raptors flew to Miami, as a team, for a break from their normal routines. Head coach Dwane Casey gave his team a break for R&R, then got them back on the practice floor to work on fundamentals. Casey: “A lot of training and practice. I think you have a captive audience. For me, that is not a vacation, and I let the players know that. We probably got a longer practice than they would have let us have in Toronto. We got a lot of stuff done." A March refresher isn’t a bad thing for any team during the long slog of the season’s stretch run, and the Raptors were clearly the fresher team down the stretch of the fourth quarter against the Pelicans. And considering the success the Raptors have already had against the Hawks this season – hanging 121 and 128 on Atlanta in the first two meetings – we can expect another strong showing down the stretch tonight. Atlanta is in pointspread free-fall, just 1-7 ATS since the All Star Break. Home court edge? Not so much, just 2-10 ATS in their last dozen here in Atlanta. The Hawks snapped a three game skid with a win over the lowly Nets in their last outing, taking the pressure off, but their defensive weaknesses were on full display once again, a team allowing 110 points per game on 48% shooting over their last five contests. Wrong team favored here! Take the Raptors. |
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03-10-17 | Vanderbilt +7 v. Florida | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#557) Florida has one fatal flaw that has hurt them repeatedly this season – their lack of a ‘go-to’ guy for crunch time scoring. When the Gators were winning national championships, they had NBA talent all over this roster: like Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer. Billy Donovan recruited well throughout his tenure here: Bradley Beal, David Lee, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Chandler Parsons, Matt Bonner, Marrese Speights, Jason Williams and Nick Calathes, just to name some. This Florida team doesn’t have anybody who will be playing in the NBA next year. Devin Robinson might make it to the D-League; KeVaughn Allen isn’t even being talked about any more, and that’s about it for top line talent. The Gators don’t beat themselves, but despite their lofty record, Florida is a long way from ‘elite status, as clearly shown by their 0-fer the season ATS mark as an underdog. Vanderbilt didn’t beat Florida twice during the regular season by accident, winning outright as 3.5 and 11.5 point underdogs in the two meetings. That’s been the case repeatedly of late – Vandy is 6-1 ATS against Florida in the last seven meetings – underdogs in every one of those pointspread covers -- and haven’t lost by more than three points to the Gators since 2013. Flying waaaaaay underneath the radar, Vandy is as hot as any team in college basketball right now: 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in their last seven ballgames. The Commodores are playing stifling defense – three of their last five opponents have made 18 shots or less against them in 40 minutes of basketball. They hit their free throws, better than 77% for the full season, Top 10 in the country. Bryce Drew’s teams have enjoyed tournament success before at Valpo, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Vandy knocks off Florida in SU fashion for the third time this season. Take Vandy. |
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03-10-17 | TCU v. Iowa State -4.5 | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#574) Make no mistake about it – TCU got the win of their season yesterday; not a team primed for back-2-back upsets in Big 12 tourney action. The Horned Frogs knocked off the #1 team in the country yesterday, beating Kansas, on the heels of a big win over Oklahoma in their opener. Their point guard, Alex Robinson, and wing/top rebounder Kenrich Williams have combined to play 144 out of a possible 160 minutes over the past two days; not a ‘fresh’ team today And this quote from senior guard Brandon Parrish tells us all we need to know about the impact of yesterday’s victory: “This is the win of my career, right here, to be completely honest. A lot of times people would tell us that we were never good enough, we would never be able to get it done.” It’s going to be extremely difficult for this squad to come back to earth after yesterday’s emotional high. Iowa State seniors Monte Morris, Matt Thomas and Naz Mitrou-Long hare a truly remarkable track record in this Big 12 tourney. They won it as freshmen. They won it as sophomores. They covered the spread in defeat as underdogs in their lone tourney game last year and they beat Oklahoma State yesterday in their tourney opener. Add it up and we’re talking about a group of seniors who are 7-1 SU, 7-0-1 ATS in this tournament, a streak worth riding again tonight. The Cyclones beat the Horned Frogs by 13 when they met last month, despite a 52% shooting effort from TCU. Don’t expect Jamie Dixon’s squad to approach those lofty shooting numbers here on their third game in three days. Take Iowa State. |
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03-09-17 | San Diego State v. Boise State +1.5 | 87-68 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Boise (#790) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) San Diego State carries a huge reputation here in Las Vegas; the class of the Mountain West Conference for the better part of the last decade. Even in a down season for the program, the betting markets don’t take the Aztecs lightly. That’s why they were double digit favorites yesterday against UNLV, a game where San Diego State needed a furious second half rally to send the game into overtime before a 12-0 run to open the extra session. And that’s why Steve Fisher’s squad is chalk again here, despite the fact that they are the weaker of these two teams right now. San Diego State has a grand total of eight pointspread covers in their 27 lined games this year. Their last pointspread cover came at home, more than a month ago. Prior to yesterday’s win over the Rebels, the Aztecs hadn’t won a game on the highway in more than a month. A San Diego State fan base that normally travels well to Vegas is a good notch or two light this year. The Aztecs shot 33% from the floor and committed 16 turnovers yesterday, surviving and advancing thanks to UNLV’s own ineptitude plus a strong 21-26 effort from the charity stripe. That strong free throw shooting is an outlier for a team that has shot less than 70% from the line this year. And Boise isn’t a team loaded with bricklayers like UNLV – they hung 78 on the Aztecs on 45% shooting in their lone regular season matchup, a double digit Broncos win. The Aztecs are going to need to hit shots tonight, a consistent problem for them all year. Boise hung tough at Oregon on November 28th, losing by only five points as a 17.5 point underdog. That set the tone for the season for a squad that was a consistent money winner away from home, including SU road wins at Loyola Marymount, Utah State, right here at the Thomas & Mack against UNLV, Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force. And, quite frankly, Boise is the better of these two teams; a veteran squad worthy of support in their Mountain West Tourney opener. Take Boise. |
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03-09-17 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -2.5 | 114-98 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#706) When a coach starts complaining about his team’s schedule, it’s ‘fade’ time. We’ve seen it on several occasions already this season, including Billy Donovan in Oklahoma City and Mike D’Antoni in Houston before the All Star Break as well as Steve Kerr’s Golden State team over the past few weeks. And now Doc Rivers has fallen into that same trap. LA is 3-5 SU since the All Star Break, showing no dramatic improvement even with their two superstars (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) back on the floor together. This is their third set of back-2-backs since the All Star break. They played at Chicago and Milwaukee last weekend, flew home to LA for one game against Boston, then flew back East for this set of back-2-backs. Rivers: “I would have loved to have just gone straight to Minnesota from Chicago. That would have made a lot of sense." LA had zero energy on either end of the court in Minnesota last night, and I’m not convinced tonight is going to be much better. It’s a very different story for Memphis; losers of three straight and five of their last seven. They bottomed out on Monday with a home loss as double digit chalk against the worst team in the league, Brooklyn, a game that Coach Fizdale called their ‘lowest point of the season’. “We're stale. Right now we're 14-14 since January 1. It's my job to shake it up.” They’ve had two days off since that loss to Brooklyn, rested and ready to bring their ‘A’ game in a clear bounceback spot tonight. Star point guard Mike Conley: “We're frustrated. We understand what we're trying to build towards and that's what's frustrating. If we didn't care about what was going on, if we didn't care about winning a championship, if we didn't think we're capable, then morale would be fine. We've got a lot of competitors in here.” Bet on spot vs. bet-against spot, plain and simple. Take the Grizzlies. |
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03-09-17 | Texas +11.5 v. West Virginia | 53-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#755) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) Four key factors in play for me on this one. First, I want my money on Shaka Smart in tournament settings. He got this job because of his remarkable tournament success at VCU, both in the A-10 tourney’s and, of course in the Big Dance. We saw Texas rally back from a double digit deficit in conference tourney action last night, exerting their will as underdogs against Texas Tech. That’s on Smart, a ‘bet-on’ coach as a double digit underdog in this setting. Secondly, there aren’t many coaches I’d prefer to have my money on against a pressing defense than Shaka Smart. Smart has utilized many of the same defensive mechanisms as his counterpart on the West Virginia sidelines, Bob Huggins. His team faces those presses in practice every day. Even without an ‘A’ level point guard on the roster, the Longhorns has the passing acumen to survive the Mountaineers defensive onslaught. Third, West Virginia isn’t built to win by big margins in halfcourt games. The Mountaineers are at their best when they are pressing, forcing turnovers in bunches, and getting easy fast break buckets. Put this team in a ‘grind it out’ setting where they have to execute their halfcourt offense and all of a sudden, this double digit pointspread looks rather large. Lastly, for much of their Big 12 campaign, Texas lacked quality depth, a staple of what Shaka Smart needs to run his gameplan effectively. But even without Tevin Mack available, Smart has gotten quality minutes out of his developing bench of late – only two starters reached the 30 minute mark yesterday. The Longhorns improved depth gives me the confidence that they can hang tough here for the full 40 minutes. Take Texas. |
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03-09-17 | Indiana v. Iowa +2 | 95-73 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#724) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) No Big 10 team was hotter down the stretch than underrated and underappreciated Iowa. The Hawkeyes came on like a freight train in recent weeks, riding a 4-0 SU and ATS run into the tourney. That included outright upset wins at Wisconsin and at Maryland, as well as an OT win over the same Indiana team they’ll face today. In that meeting against the Hoosiers, Iowa was able to penetrate the paint again and again, resulting in a whopping 47-19 edge at the free throw line. And there’s little reason to think that Tom Crean’s underachieving squad will be able to shut down senior leader Peter Jok and his young but talented teammates. Indiana has won a grand total of three games away from home all year. One of them came back on opening night in November against Kansas, a win that essentially left them overrated since. The other two wins away from home? By 3 at Penn State and by 4 at Ohio State, two teams that have had a REALLY hard time closing teams out all year. This is NOT a team to be trusted laying points; 0-fer the season as short favorites (-4.5 or less) and 33% ATS when laying 15 or less. Take Iowa. |
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03-09-17 | Duke v. Louisville -1.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Louisville (#714) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) I’ll keep this short and sweet. Duke has no depth, especially with Grayson Allen a complete non-factor since his injury in late February (a total of five made shots in the Blue Devils last five games; more fouls than points, rebounds and assists combined in 12 minutes yesterday). Clemson gave them a battle to the final minute yesterday; a game in which Duke’s starters combined for 178 of the 200 minutes of court time, while the bench produced a grand total of two points, three rebounds and an assist. Coach K has bigger fish to fry than the ACC Tournament. A weekend practicing back home, trying to get Allen healthy again is not a bad thing for this team, as opposed to going all out in what will be a BRUTAL run to the finals in this loaded tourney. I do not expect a ‘balls to the wall’ effort from the Blue Devils today. Louisville comes into the game with an inherent advantage, just like they had in the first meeting (a comfortable nine point win). Louisville’s constant pressure on defense wears opponents down, even if they don’t force turnovers in bunches. Duke has no depth and played a tight game yesterday. Expect Louisville’s presses to have the desired effect here – Duke will not be ‘fresh’ for the second half of this one! And make no mistake about it – this game, and this tournament, means more to Louisville than perhaps any other team in the conference. Rick Pitino is a conference tourney guy: 12-2 SU & ATS since 2012. He owns 11 conference tournament championships in four different leagues over the past 2 ½ decades. Louisville was ineligible last year and they got bounced from their opener in their first ever ACC tourney in 2015. This team has a statement to make this weekend, and I expect it to start right here! Big Ticket: Take Louisville. |
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03-08-17 | Celtics +8.5 v. Warriors | 99-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#521) I understand that Boston has had a rough week. They were flat for extended stretches at Phoenix over the weekend, only to rally back and blow the ‘W’ in the final minute. They followed that up with an ugly second half against the Clippers the following night. All Star point guard Isaiah Thomas was not pleased with Brad Stevens rotations during the Clippers loss, with Thomas on the bench as LA went on a huge 21-6 run that turned the game in the third quarter. Al Horford missed both of those losses with an elbow injury. Horford is expected back on the floor tonight, upgraded to ‘probable’. Boston has shown repeatedly that they are not a ‘losing streak’ type of team, suffering only three three game skids all year, one of which came back in early November. And it’s surely worth noting that they lost by only seven at San Antonio in the third game of the second of those skids, close enough to cover the spread in defeat. And the Celtics take these matchup with Golden State very seriously. Boston gave the Warriors everything Golden State could handle in both meetings last year, losing at home in double OT in the first meeting, then handing the Warriors one of only two home losses they suffered all year in the rematch. Golden State got their ‘revenge’ with a 16 point win at Boston earlier this season, thanks to a 31-9 run-out in the third quarter, a game where Boston was dealing with multiple key injuries. That’s certainly not the case tonight! The Warriors have been an overvalued commodity in a big way in recent weeks, just 1-6 ATS since the All Star Break. They weren’t able to extend margins in relatively tight wins over the Knicks (by 7) and Hawks (by 8) to close out their extended East Coast road trip. And this single home game before another set of back-2-backs on the road against the T-Wolves and Spurs this weekend is a ‘major distraction’ spot; a game that Steve Kerr was worried about even before that last road trip began. ‘Live dog’ here! Take the Celtics. |
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03-08-17 | Raptors +3.5 v. Pelicans | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#511) This is a classic ‘Bet-on’ vs. ‘Bet-against’ here, with the ‘Bet-Against’ team laying points and taking early money on Wednesday. New Orleans has no business laying points to any playoff contender. The Pelicans are just 2-5 since picking up DeMarcus Cousins at the trading deadline. Neither win was particularly impressive. They beat the tanking Lakers and knocked off the Pistons on the second night of back-2-backs off a wild, come-from-behind OT win the previous night. Things aren’t working for New Orleans offensively right now, held under 90 points in regulation three times in their last six games. Point guard Jrue Holiday looks completely lost, benched for the entirety of the fourth quarter in a loss at Utah in their last game. And he’s not the only one struggling to acclimate to the presence of two elite big men on the floor at the same time – the Pelicans lack quality, shot making wings after dealing away their top perimeter threats in the Cousins deal. After getting beaten by the Bucks in their last game on Saturday, the Raptors flew to Miami, as a team, for a break from their normal routines. Head coach Dwane Casey gave his team a break for R&R, then got them back on the practice floor to work on fundamentals. Casey: “A lot of training and practice. I think you have a captive audience. For me, that is not a vacation, and I let the players know that. We probably got a longer practice than they would have let us have in Toronto. We got a lot of stuff done." Toronto beat New Orleans when these two teams met earlier in the season, and they’ve dominated on this floor: 12-2 SU on their last 14 trips to the Big Easy, including four of their last five. Look for the rested, ready Raptors to bring their ‘A’ game here against an opponent that doesn’t have a strong ‘A’ game right now. Take the Raptors. |
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03-08-17 | Penn State -1 v. Nebraska | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Penn State (#561) My clients and I have been betting against Nebraska consistently in recent weeks, a team that has been power rated in the wrong range for the better part of the last two months. The betting markets got the wrong idea about this team in January when they opened Big 10 play with road wins at Indiana and Maryland, followed by a home victory over Iowa. Since that time, the Huskers are 3-12 SU. They’ve lost four straight games by 15 points or more, non-competitive in defeat. Their only victory away from home since New Year’s Day was a minor miracle at Ohio State, stealing a one point win in a game they trailed by five with 30 seconds to play. Last time out, on senior night, at home against Michigan this past weekend, the Huskers were complete no-shows, falling behind by double digits early and never showing the pride, energy and determination to make a run at any point in that game. Tim Miles is clearly on the hot seat and his team has stopped buying into his message. Nebraska’s collapse has been most obvious on the defensive end of the court. In recent weeks, the Huskers have allowed 93 to Michigan, 88 to Minnesota, 88 to Michigan State, 81 to Iowa and 80 to Purdue, not exactly ‘shut down’ defense. Their last five opponents have combined to shoot 51% from the floor and 41% from three point range against them in one ‘no-show’ after the next. I’m not worried one iota about some positive Huskers quotes coming into the Big 10 Tourney. The same players have been delivering the same type of quotes throughout this dismal run. And the Huskers opponent, Penn State, has been feisty as hell in this tournament throughout the Patrick Chambers era, including a 4-0 ATS mark in this tourney over the past two seasons. That’s an ATS run worth riding again today in a game where Nebraska will be hard pressed to compete for 40 minutes. Big Ticket: Take Penn State. |
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03-08-17 | Stanford v. Arizona State +4.5 | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#554) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) Stanford can’t be laying points away from home. The Cardinal went 1-8 SU on the highway in PAC-12 action following an 0-2 road mark in non-conference play. Their only two pointspread covers came in defeat came as +13 and +21 underdogs. And their only road win came at hapless Oregon State (1-17 in conference) all the way back in mid-January. The Cardinal enter PAC-12 Tournament play in the midst of a three game skid; struggling on both ends of the court. They lost both regular season meetings against the Sun Devils, struggling with turnovers on offense and an inability to keep the Sun Devils contained on the perimeter without fouling on defense. The Cardinal got bounced in the opening round here in Vegas last year and went 0-2 ATS in the PAC-12 tourney the year before; their lone win coming by a single bucket; unable to build any margin. Look for Bobby Hurley’s ‘bombs away’ offense to give the Cardinal fits once again this afternoon in a game the Sun Devils are live to win. Take Arizona State. |
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03-08-17 | San Jose State +4.5 v. Utah State | 64-90 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take San Jose St (#547) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) This has been the worst season for Utah State in decades, a program in clear decline since legendary head coach Stew Morrill headed into retirement. They just lost on this floor to UNLV last week, a hard thing to do considering the Rebels comparable decline. San Jose, on the other hand, won here at the Thomas & Mack in Vegas against the Rebels, and won another road game away from home down the stretch at New Mexico. When these teams met in San Jose last month, Utah State shot 55% from the floor and hit 19 of their 20 free throw attempts. They won the game by six points. I do NOT expect the Aggies to approach those elite shooting percentages again here, in a game that has legitimate ‘upset alert’ potential. And it’s surely worth noting that Utah State has a grand total of three pointspread covers all year when laying -3 or higher, not exactly a track record of success in this role. Take San Jose St |
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03-07-17 | Lakers v. Mavs -9.5 | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#704) The Lakers lost by 49 on their last visit to Dallas, and there’s little reason to think that the Lakers are going to give the Mavs a competitive game tonight. It’s not like the previous two meetings this year were competitive either—Dallas won both of those games, at the Staples Center in LA, by a dozen points each time. From all indications, LA is in full-on tank mode again. They’ve lost seven straight games; non-competitive in most of them, with losses by 20 to the Celtics, 17 to the Thunder, 36 to the Suns and 21 to the Spurs during that span. It’s surely worth noting what happened down the stretch of their last game, an eight point home loss to New Orleans. The game was tied at 97 with less than two minutes to play. The Lakers didn’t score again, losing by eight (despite several missed Pelicans free throws) and failing to cover the spread, showing plenty of ‘quit’ in that final sequence. Dirk Nowtizki is live to score his 30,000th NBA point tonight – it’s going to be a raucous crowd in Dallas this evening. And the Mavs have shown plenty of ‘blowout’ mentality at home in recent weeks, beating the Thunder by 15 last time out on the heels of a 13 point win over New Orleans, a 32 point win over Orlando and an 18 point win over Philly since the beginning of February. Dallas hasn’t been installed as the favorite on a regular basis this season – they’ve only gone off as the chalk 11 times in 62 games. The Mavs have dominated in this role from a SU and pointspread perspective, 10-1 ATS when laying points. That’s an under-the-radar angle worth riding again tonight. Take the Mavericks. |
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03-06-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee +1 v. Illinois-Chicago | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin – Milwaukee (#537) My clients and I have been riding Wisconsin – Milwaukee in this tournament, cashing an Under in the Panthers first Horizon Conference Tourney game, then cashing with the Panthers as 8.5 point underdogs in their outright upset victory over Valpo the following night. Fresh off a day off yesterday, the Panthers are primed to cash another outright underdog bet for us tonight. Let me start with an extended excerpt from my last pro- Wisconsin –Milwaukee write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: ‘Wisconsin – Milwaukee has ‘Cinderella’ written all over them, worthy of support in Horizon League Tourney action tonight. The Panthers were supposed to be bad, with preseason projections putting them at the very bottom of the Horizon League. Those projections lived up to reality – Milwaukee finished last, with a 4-14 conference mark. ‘But a funny thing happened down the stretch for LaVall Jordan’s squad. Instead of getting blown out, they hung tough, again and again, away from home against the best teams in the conference. They took Oakland to OT before falling short, hung within six at Valpo, Northern Kentucky and Green Bay, took Youngstown St to OT and, after their upset over the Crusaders, notched three SU victories here in Detroit. ‘Senior guard Cody Wichmann: “Coach put it up on the board (Sunday), we’ve played with every team in this conference. So that … gives us hope, too…Basically, anything can happen is what it comes down to. Freshman year we had the same thing. We were picked not to finish anywhere near the top and we ran the table.” ‘Sophomore guard Brock Stull: “It makes it so the young guys have some sort of faith, trust the process. We know we have played with every single team in this conference. Tournament time is a different ballgame. Anything can happen and I think teams are going to be afraid to play us.” ‘Oakland U head coach Greg Kampe: “They took us to overtime at our place and they’re a 10 seed and we’re a 1, think about that.” ‘ Illinois –Chicago played their most recent matchup with the Panthers back in February at their preferred pace, hanging 85 points in regulation and another 20 in overtime in a bitterly contested 105-100 Flames victory. But right now, the Panthers aren’t letting anybody run and gun against them, slowing down Detroit and Valpo to a crawl in their first two wins of this tourney That’s a problematic pace for a UIC team that has struggled down the stretch, notching only one win since the weekend after Valentine’s Day! Take Wisconsin – Milwaukee. |
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03-06-17 | Pacers +3.5 v. Hornets | 88-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#513) Charlotte isn’t very good, and they’re in a classic ‘letdown’ spot tonight, returning home off a successful end to their road trip – three wins in their final five games. Of course, the Hornets didn’t beat a team with a winning record on that road trip. Their last victory against an opponent with a winning record? How about back on January 20th. Before that, it was January 4th, then December 17th, then November 28th. In other words, the Hornets don’t beat teams with winning records very often; only beating bottom feeders these days. Charlotte isn’t beating anybody but the weakest of the weak at home. They are just 2-6 SU dating back to late January on this floor. Both of those wins came against the worst team in the NBA, Brooklyn. And even in those games, Charlotte didn’t win by enough of a margin to cover the pointspread. My numbers show Charlotte entering tonight’s game with a 1-8-1 ATS mark in their last ten tries as favorites, the lone cover coming against hapless Sacramento. The injury bug has been biting Charlotte all year and they suffered another key one this past week, with Frank Kaminsky hurting his shoulder. ‘Frank the Tank’ had been on a tear, playing the best ball of his NBA career before getting hurt. His absence will be felt here in a tough matchup for the Hornets against Indiana’s emerging young big Myles Turner. The Pacers are in excellent shape for a ‘second night of back-to-backs’ situation – Paul George was their only guy playing more than 32 minutes yesterday, and nine guys saw double digit minutes. This quote tells us all we need to know about the Pacers team chemistry right now; a team that has faced the abyss with a nasty pre-All Star Break slump, and come out of it unscathed, currently the #6 seed in the East. Glenn Robinson III: “We're just sticking together. We know we need these wins. We've got a tough schedule coming up, we're on the road a lot. We just want to play for each other, play hard, and leave it all on the court." That should be enough against a Charlotte team that has no business laying points to any decent foe. Take the Pacers. |
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03-06-17 | Bucks v. 76ers OVER 212 | 112-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Philadelphia OVER (#505-506) The 76ers defense has declined markedly since dealing Nerlens Noel at the trading deadline and benching Joel Embiid with his latest injury related setback. Without a low post defensive stopper, teams are driving into the paint without repercussion against Philly, getting off one good look after the next The results don’t lie. The 76ers have allowed 136, 102, 125, 119, 110 and 112 in six games since the All Star Break while allowing 49% shooting from the floor during that span. A team that ranked in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency for a good portion of the season is in the midst of a free fall now. The Bucks defense isn’t any better, ranked behind Philly for the full season while allowing 50% shooting from the floor in their last five ballgames. But their revamped offense is sizzling, averaging 108 points per game over the past month. And from all indications, we should expect this offense to continue pushing the pace and putting up points in bunches. Milwaukee center Spencer Hawes, coming off a 16 point effort off the bench against Toronto: “I think we were just playing the right way. Everybody was moving the ball. We were playing defense, first of all, and pushing the ball in transition. Everyone was touching it. ... It was just clicking." Bucks head coach Jason Kidd, talking about sitting his bigs and playing uptempo: “Today's game, it's not played like it was in the '80s. You don't have two bigs. Going forward, there's going to be a lot of small ball being played.You put your best five out there. Cleveland puts their best five out there and there's no one probably taller than 6-9." Small ball correlates with fast paced play and Over cashes, plain and simple. When Jason Kidd and Brett Brown have matched up, there’s been one consistent result: Overs! These two teams flew Over the total in the first two meetings this year by double digit margins, now 6-1 to the Over in the last seven matchups. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the OVER. |
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03-05-17 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 138 | 93-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska – Michigan OVER (#849-850) Michigan is most assuredly not playing elite level defense down the stretch of their Big 10 campaign. The stats show it very clearly. The Wolverines rank #12 out of 14 Big 10 teams in defensive efficiency. They rank #327 in the country defending the three point line. They don’t force many turnovers either, leading to consistently poor defensive showings. In their last two games, Northwestern and Purdue lit up the Wolverines defense, combining to shoot better than 50% from the floor against them. And without a bigtime low post shot blocker, Nebraska’s offensive gameplan is primed to generate high percentage looks in the paint, just like they did in the first meeting in Ann Arbor, when they shot 56% from the floor and hung 85 points on the scoreboard. Facing a Michigan defense that has allowed a whopping 50.5% shooting from the floor against them on the highway for the full season, we can expect the Huskers to do their fair share of damage on the scoreboard tonight. Of course Michigan didn’t lose that first meeting – they hung 92 on the Cornhuskers behind 54% shooting. That game was the rule, not the exception for Michigan’s offense, ranked #1 in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency by a wide margin; right between Duke and Kansas in the national rankings (#11). And there’s little reason to expect Michigan’s offense to get shut down here – Nebraska hasn’t been getting stops against anybody of late. In recent weeks, the Huskers have allowed 8 8 to Minnesota, 88 to Michigan State, 81 to Iowa and 80 to Purdue, not exactly ‘shut down’ defense. In a series where the first meeting went Over the total by 43.5 points in regulation, I have little hesitation expecting another relatively high scoring affair in the rematch. Take the Over. |
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03-05-17 | Celtics v. Suns +7 | 106-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Phoenix (#828) I’ve got a big buy’ sign on the Phoenix Suns right now, with the betting markets getting the wrong read on management’s decision to start playing the young guys. Veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight have essentially been benched, creating playing time for the Suns emerging talent. The markets knee jerk reaction: ‘Phoenix is tanking’! But the exact opposite has been true. The Suns have hung 118 and 120 on OKC and Charlotte in their last two games, pulling a pair of outright upsets at home. In fact, they are 4-1 SU & ATS in their last five at home, the lone loss coming by a single bucket against New Orleans. The biggest reason for the Suns recent, under-the-radar surge has been their bench play. Rookie Tyler Ulis is getting his first substantial playing time, and he’s been great: 22 points and 15 assists in 44 minutes over the last two games. Head coach Earl Watson, following the win over Charlotte last week: “Tyler Ulis changed the game.’ Second year forward Alan Williams had 41 combined points in the Suns first 44 games this year. Williams has three double doubles in his last five games, scoring at least 11 points in every one of those contests. Rookie reserve Derrick Jones Jr is heating up as well. No surprise, then, that the Suns bench has outscored the Hornets and Thunder benches 108-45 in the last two games; an emerging trend worth paying very close attention to, from a team that is waaaaaaay off the radar for the vast majority of bettors. This is the epitome of a ‘fat and happy’ spot for the Celtics. Boston is coming off a huge national TV win against the defending champion Cavaliers and a blowout victory at the Staples Center against their historical rival, the Lakers. Up next? Back-to-back showdowns with Western Conference elites – the Clippers and Warriors. Can you say ‘flat spot’? Take the Suns. |
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03-04-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee +9 v. Valparaiso | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin – Milwaukee (#671) Wisconsin – Milwaukee has ‘Cinderella’ written all over them, worthy of support in Horizon League Tourney action tonight. The Panthers were supposed to be bad, with preseason projections putting them at the very bottom of the Horizon League. Those projections lived up to reality – Milwaukee finished last, with a 4-14 conference mark. But a funny thing happened down the stretch for LaVall Jordan’s squad. Instead of getting blown out, they hung tough, again and again, away from home against the best teams in the conference. They took Oakland to OT before falling short, hung within six at Valpo, Northern Kentucky and Green Bay, took Youngstown St to OT and, after yesterday’s win over the Titans, notched two SU victories here in Detroit. Senior guard Cody Wichmann: “Coach put it up on the board (Sunday), we’ve played with every team in this conference. So that … gives us hope, too…Basically, anything can happen is what it comes down to. Freshman year we had the same thing. We were picked not to finish anywhere near the top and we ran the table.” Sophomore guard Brock Stull: “It makes it so the young guys have some sort of faith, trust the process. We know we have played with every single team in this conference. Tournament time is a different ballgame. Anything can happen and I think teams are going to be afraid to play us.” Oakland U head coach Greg Kampe: “They took us to overtime at our place and they’re a 10 seed and we’re a 1, think about that.” Valpo got bounced out of the tourney in their opening game last year, losing SU as nine point favorites to a Green Bay team that already had a pair of wins under their belts on the Joe Louis Arena floor. That isn’t new or different – the last double digit win that the Crusaders have notched on a neutral floor in conference tourney action came back when Butler was still in this league back in 2012. Expect a tight game throughout, and be sure to take at least a taste of the big plus price on the moneyline here.. Take Wisconsin Milwaukee |
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03-04-17 | UNLV v. Fresno State -12 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Fresno State (#616) My clients and I cashed a pair of ‘right side’ winners supporting Fresno State in their last two games, outright upset wins at Boise and San Diego State. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Bulldogs write-up. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “Fresno won nine straight games down the stretch last year (8-1 ATS) capturing the Mountain West Tournament title at the end of that streak; a streak that began in mid-February, as Rodney Terry’s team played their best basketball at this stage of the campaign. And, fresh off four consecutive and covers, the Bulldogs appear to be peaking at the right time again this year. “Coach Terry, talking about their success running their halfcourt offense in a win over New Mexico last week: “It definitely gives you some confidence to be able to do that… we’re just getting to a point right now where we’re able to play through some guys, and when you’re able to get older and get some experience, you’re able to do that and control that a lot more, say, ‘Hey, this is what we want on this possession and let’s execute right now.’ ” “Senior forward Paul Watson: “Each possession, you have to value the ball. That’s something we haven’t done as well as we did last year, but it’s definitely something we’re working on. You have to get a shot up every possession. You can’t afford to turn it over. You have to get a good look and give yourself a chance.” Fresno has shown the ability to win by margin consistently at home, beating Wyoming, Boise, Colorado State, San Jose, Air Force and New Mexico all by nine points or more. On Senior Day, we can expect another inspired performance, especially against a Rebels team that has ‘no-show’ written all over them! This has been a disastrous season for UNLV; arguably the worst season in the history of this once proud program. But the Rebels snapped a nine game losing streak with a win over Utah State at home on Senior Night earlier in the week; taking the pressure off in one of the only 40 minute games they’ve played all year. Forward Christian Jones: “(The victory) means a lot, especially for the seniors. This whole team was stressing we need to get this win for the seniors, and that’s what we did. We played for that whole 40 minutes instead of just one half.” But UNLV hasn’t even managed to play one half of good basketball in any recent road game, losing by 23, 27 and 13 in their three February road tilts, losing ATS by a combined 34.5 points. Their last game against a ‘good’ team – Nevada – was a 94-58 blowout loss. The Bulldogs beat a much better UNLV team than this one three times last year. I’m not expecting this game to be competitive in any way by the time the second half rolls around. Take Fresno St |
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03-04-17 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +2 | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State (#610) This is the ultimate ‘no-show’ game for Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming off an exhilarating, come from behind win against Oklahoma on Senior Night. They have already clinched their 13th consecutive Big 12 regular season title and the #1 seed in next week’s Big 12 Tournament. And Bill Self’s key cogs are all worn down. Over the last five games, out of a possible 205 court minutes (counting OT against West Virginia), Frank Mason has played 199, DeVonte Graham has played 193 and Josh Jackson has played 171 minutes. For a team with legitimate Big 12 tourney and national title aspirations, this game is as meaningless as it gets. I’m not expecting Bill Self to chase hard if (when!) the Jayhawks fall behind – he’s got to manage his stars minutes today! Oklahoma State has been a truly remarkable story this college basketball season. First year head coach Brad Underwood watched his team go 0-6 to open Big 12 play, suffering one excruciating loss after the next. That included a tight loss to full strength Kansas, a two point game with 4:00 to play before Kansas pulled away late. Instead of wilting, Oklahoma State has put together a remarkable turnaround: 10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS since, as hot as any team in the conference heading into their own Senior Night. Coach Underwood: “We’re a good basketball team and have we peaked? Not yet. We have a chance to be an exceptional basketball team and we’re showing that.” It’s not just Underwood talking about his team as a squad with elite potential at this stage of the campaign. Here’s a quote from Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard following the Cowboys 17 point win against the Red Raiders in their last home game: “Brad has really good players. He has an NBA point guard (Juwan Evans), one of the all-time great Big 12 players in (Phil) Forte, and in my opinion he has the most improved player, not only in Big 12, but in college basketball with (Jeffrey) Carroll. He has young players who really play their roles and play productive minutes.” From an offensive standpoint, Oklahoma State is no ‘unranked’ team. In fact, the Cowboys rank #1 in the country, ahead of even mighty UCLA, with a 125.1 adjusted offensive efficiency; the second best college basketball offense of the last TEN YEARS! In a pointspread range where the SU win equates to an ATS cover, the undervalued Cowboys are worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager today. Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State. |
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03-03-17 | Knicks v. 76ers +1.5 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#824) My clients and I have truly enjoyed the Philadelphia 76ers in recent months, particularly right here at home. All the Sixers do is cover pointspreads, the single best ATS team in the NBA this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS as favorites. In their other 57 games, they’re 37-20 ATS, cashing at a 65% clip for the entire season; a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting markets. At home, Philly has been even better. Waaaaaaay under the radar, the 76ers are now 9-3 SU, 12-0 ATS in their home games since the calendar turned to 2017; the only losses coming in spread covering fashion by five against Houston and by eight against San Antonio. The Knicks are not the Rockets or the Spurs. Both meetings between these two teams this year have been decided in the final seconds by a single point. New York is coming off a rare win. The last time they won back-2-back games? How about before Christmas; 0-9 SU and just 2-7 ATS following a single victory. This is most assuredly not a team to trust as road chalk, a ‘false favorite’ tonight. While New York has proven repeatedly that they are not worthy of support following a win, the 76ers have shown that they are an excellent bet off a bad loss, like their ‘no-show’ in Miami on Wednesday, a 27 point defeat. Head coach Brett Brown: “That's not who we are. I give Miami credit. They exposed us individually, our ability to guard them. That type of result has not been us." Philly off a double digit loss this season? How about 13-7 ATS; moneymakers in this role. Take the 76ers. |
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03-03-17 | Raptors v. Wizards -5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#822) In all four games that Raptors starting point guard Kyle Lowry has missed since his injury, Toronto has trailed by double digit margins. They were able to rally back in the fourth quarter to notch tight wins against the likes of the Knicks and Blazers, going 3-1 SU without Lowry in the lineup. But Washington isn’t the Knicks or the Blazers when it comes to defensive acumen, to put it mildly. And Washington has something to prove against a team that swept the season series last year and won by ten on their first visit to the Verizon Center this season! When Washington beat Toronto on the front end of this home & home series, they led by as many as 24 points, cruising to victory. Don’t be fooled by the nine point final margin – the Wiz were up 17 with less than two minutes to play before a late Raptors flurry. Most importantly, Wizards point guard John Wall had more assists (13) than the entire Raptors team (11). Ball movement has been a real problem for the Raptors since Lowry got hurt – nothing but one-on-one basketball offensively. For a team integrating new parts, like Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker, the lack of continuity at point guard is clearly problematic. The Cory Joseph/Delon Wright combo couldn’t handle John Wall at home on Wednesday, and I don’t expect them to handle Wall in DC tonight either, where the Wizards have been extreme moneymakers. The results don’t lie. Washington at home has been one of the best bets in basketball for months. They’re 19-2 SU in their last 21 at home since early December, while going 16-5 ATS on this floor during that span, a streak worth riding again tonight. Take the Wizards |
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03-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit UNDER 147 | 85-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Wisconsin Milwaukee UNDER (#871-872) Detroit wants to run and gun, exactly what they were able to do on the road at Wisconsin-Milwaukee last week. The Titans played the game at their pace, and won outright as 3 point underdogs, 81-74. The first meeting between these two teams was played at Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s pace, right here in Detroit. The game was tied at 61-61 at the end of regulation, staying Under the closing total of 150 even after overtime. So what should we expect from the third meeting? Wisc- Milwaukee head coach LaVall Jordan tell you himself: “They didn’t see the best version of us this past Friday, and so we get a chance to redeem ourselves from that…. Guarding them without fouling is a big deal, and us trying to control the pace. I thought we did a better job in Game 1 than we did in Game 2. They play up and down, they score a lot of points and then they try to make you play faster than you normally play. In Game 2, they did that. We have to respond better.” Neither team shoots particularly well, from the floor or from the free throw line. For this game to get Over the total, it’s going to take a fast pace, something the Panthers are clearly focused on preventing. That makes this game worthy of an Under wager in afternoon action on Friday. Take the Under. |
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03-02-17 | Manhattan v. Rider -5.5 | Top | 68-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Rider (#770) The Broncs struggled against the Jaspers in the first meeting between these two teams back in January. Rider shot poorly and clanked a bunch of free throws, just 17-29 from the charity stripe, while Manhattan hit 28-35 (80%) from the free throw line in a three point home victory. The rematch less than two weeks ago was a tale of two halves. Manhattan scored 53 points before halftime, taking a nine point lead into the break. Finally, in the second half, Rider figured out how to solve Steve Masiello’s pressing defense and they blew the Jaspers off the court in a 49-29 second half rout. I have full confidence that Rider’s second half success from the last meeting will carry over tonight – they know how to beat this team now! And let’s be honest – this season has been a disaster for Manhattan. A loss here and this 10-21 team can call it a season. It’s surely worth noting that the Jaspers have lost each of their last five away from home by double digit margins, including a 23 point loss right here in Albany against Siena in February. Masiello: “We’re not built to, and nor will I ever build to say ‘let’s get 92 and let them get 90’. It’s just not who I am philosophically. There’s nothing wrong with that, I just don’t know how to play that way. When you don’t get stops, I don’t care how many scoring options you have; in our system, it’s not going to equate to success. It’s about getting stops.” The problem, of course, is that they haven’t gotten stops, ranked #9 in the MACC in defensive efficiency during league play. They’ve allowed 78+ in eight of their nine road losses in conference, and have allowed 51% shooting over their last five games. Rider averaged 98 points per game while going 3-0 SU and ATS down the stretch. This is a senior laden squad -- four senior starters, all of whom average in double digits in the scoring column -- with a legit shot to make a run in this tourney, and they know it. Head coach Kevin Baggett: “Our guys are excited. We have some momentum, but we’ve had momentum going into the tournament before and lost. We’ll focus on the one game, Manhattan, and making sure that we’re ready to go and knowing exactly what we need to do to win the game.” Senior Jimmy Taylor, the team’s leading scorer, on how they beat up on Manhattan in the second half of the last meeting: “Tell everyone to stay aggressive, stay confident in their shots, we are capable of scoring and if the shots aren’t falling, keep shooting. Go inside to our big men, if their shots are falling, then it opens up guys on the perimeter from 3 and, if those fall, it opens up more, we just feed off of each other.” Expect more of the same tonight in a game with legit ‘blowout’ potential. Big Ticket: Take Rider. |
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03-02-17 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -7.5 | 73-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#740) Big man Reggie Lynch is a real problem for Nebraska’s struggling offense. Lynch averages 3.4 blocks per game, but he’s been even better than that lately, coming off an 11 block, 0 foul effort against Penn State last weekend. Nebraska isn’t loaded with strong perimeter shooters – their offensive gameplan relies on the ability to drive the ball to the basket. An interior force like Lynch is a huge obstacle to the Cornhuskers offensive success. Nebraska head coach Tim Miles: “We have to understand what it’s like to go against a shot-blocker. Certain guys do that better than others, but they’re clear on what’s expected.” It’s certainly not like Nebraska has been playing good basketball of late. Miles is clearly on the hot seat for a team that is 3-10 SU in their last 13 games. They’ve been bombed repeatedly on the highway, losing by 16 at Michigan State, by 11 at Iowa and by 12 at Northwestern in recent road tilts; 0-3 ATS. They’re coming off a confidence sapping blowout loss at home to Illinois this past weekend; a team with a ‘glass chin’ right now, unable to respond well to adversity. Minnesota spent a good portion of the season struggling to cover numbers as a favorite. That has changed in recent weeks, a team that is most assuredly gelling at the right time. They’ve won seven straight heading into tonight, with five of those victories coming by nine points or more, in large part due to their dominance on the glass and their strong interior defense. And with Minnesota closing out games well at the free throw line (75% over the last five games), this price range is very reasonable to support the better team at home against a reeling foe. Take Minnesota. |
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03-01-17 | Rockets +2 v. Clippers | 122-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#519) Count me in as a Houston Rockets believer! The addition of Louis Williams at the trading deadline has legitimately moved the needle for a squad that wasn’t short of bench depth and scoring to begin with. In three games since joining the team, Williams has been a sparkplug off the bench, and the Rockets reserves have combined to score only three fewer points than the Rockets starters. That’s a clear indicator of quality depth. But Houston is coming off a particularly cold shooting effort against the Pacers. They were up 18-2 right out of the gate, then went completely flat. Lou Williams: "It was pretty ugly. I think early on we made some shots, got a big lead and probably felt like the game was coming to us too easy and we kind of got lax. They picked up their intensity and I don't think we matched it after that." Houston finished the game shooting just 36% from the floor, and the starters went 3-27 from three point range, a rare off night for an historically elite perimeter shooting squad. Despite those offensive woes, the Rockets STILL ended up with 108 points on the scoreboard, a clear indicator of their offensive prowess. And this is a ‘bet-on’ team off a loss –period; 16-2 SU following their 18 previous defeats this season. The Clippers are 0-2 ATS since Chris Paul returned to the lineup, no surprise for this bettor. Doc Rivers is already making excuses for what might not be a seamless transition back to full health for LA. “Now we've got to get our timing and our rhythm back, because haven't played with this group and that may take a little bit…. To me, once we had all the injuries and dropped games, to me it’s all about just being right for the playoffs and being healthy and having good rhythm….. March is brutal when you look at our schedule. It is brutal. But it is what it is.” Take the Rockets. |
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03-01-17 | Michigan State v. Illinois -2 | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#560) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner supporting the Illini in their blowout win at Nebraska on Sunday. Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up for that game, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “Illini head coach Jim Groce has been pounding a ‘Climb the Ladder’ mantra as Illinois has bounced back from a terrible start to the Big 10 campaign, a ‘one game at a time’ mentality to get back into ‘Bubble’ consideration. “We can’t control a month from now. We can’t rewind and change the result of a game. We can’t do that. What we can do is learn from every circumstance and work to get better every day. That’s really all we’re talking about right now.” And the team has bought into that mentality, winning three straight – all as underdogs -- and four of their last five. Point guard Te’Jon Lucas: “If we hear somebody talking about, we tell them we’ve got to focus on the next game. That’s what dictates the future. Of course you’ve got the future and know about the tournament and stuff, but you’ve got to win the next game to get there. You’ve got to focus on winning games and playing to the best of our ability.” More Groce: “We've continued to find a formula that would give us a chance to win basketball games and compete, and it has here for a couple weeks. It's not automatic. You have to choose mentally and physically to continue to play the way we've played. Hopefully the success here recently will convince them more mentally and physically to continue to play the way we have." Make no mistake about it. While the Spartans full season defensive numbers are superior to Illinois, the Illini defense is playing at a VERY high level right now. Over the last six games, the Illini have held opponents under 40% shooting. Michigan State, on the road, for the season? How about 47% shooting allowed! The Spartans have only two road wins all season, one of which came by a single point in overtime, the other at struggling Nebraska; not a team that has put it together away from home at any point this year. They’ve lost by 17 and 29 in their last two road games, both non-competitive losses, and I’m not expecting a major turnaround tonight against the streaking, undervalued Illini. Take Illinois. |
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03-01-17 | Mavs +6.5 v. Hawks | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#507) Mike Budenholzer’s track record in games like this one is not very good, nor have the Hawks been covering spreads as short favorites. In fact, Atlanta is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 tries as single digit home chalk, repeatedly failing in this role. My clients and I cashed an easy winner against the Hawks as home favorites against Miami last week in an 18 point loss. And there’s ample reason to think that this chemistry challenged squad is poised to struggle as home chalk again tonight! Since their last winning streak ended in the second week of January, the Hawks have been downright awful off a single victory, unable to carry any momentum forward. They’re just 3-8 SU in their last eleven tries, including four SU losses as home favorites. And the quotes coming out of Atlanta’s locker room are dicey at best. There’s an awkward disconnect between management and point guard Dennis Schroeder, who was suspended for a game last week. Dwight Howard, too, seems to be having issues with staff and teammates Meanwhile, Dallas is most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ team right now, surging towards the #8 seed in the West. The addition of talented big man Nerlens Noel from Philly truly energized this squad following the All Star Break; with Dallas beating up on Orlando and Miami in their two games since the break; both wire-2-wire winners. Yogi Ferrell has provided a major spark as the point guard position as well -- I don’t expect this team to miss Deron Williams one iota. Live dog here! Take the Mavericks. |
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02-28-17 | Fresno State +5 v. Boise State | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Fresno St (#753) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Fresno State last week in their outright upset win as eight point underdogs at San Diego State. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “Fresno won nine straight games down the stretch last year (8-1 ATS) capturing the Mountain West Tournament title at the end of that streak; a streak that began in mid-February, as Rodney Terry’s team played their best basketball at this stage of the campaign. And, fresh off back-2-back-2-back wins and covers, the Bulldogs appear to be peaking at the right time again this year. “Coach Terry, talking about their success running their halfcourt offense in a win over New Mexico last week: “It definitely gives you some confidence to be able to do that… we’re just getting to a point right now where we’re able to play through some guys, and when you’re able to get older and get some experience, you’re able to do that and control that a lot more, say, ‘Hey, this is what we want on this possession and let’s execute right now.’ ” “Senior forward Paul Watson: “Each possession, you have to value the ball. That’s something we haven’t done as well as we did last year, but it’s definitely something we’re working on. You have to get a shot up every possession. You can’t afford to turn it over. You have to get a good look and give yourself a chance.” While Fresno offers real ‘bet-on’ potential right now, Boise has most assuredly been an overvalued commodity in recent weeks. The Broncos are on an 0-6 ATS slide, burning their backers repeatedly. In recent tries as home chalk, Boise couldn’t pull away from Utah State or Air Force or Wyoming or San Jose St. And ‘Senior Night’ in Boise isn’t a difference maker for a team with only three seniors, none of whom average more than nine points per game. Ride the hot, fade the cold. Take Fresno St |
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02-28-17 | Warriors v. Wizards +6.5 | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#702) My clients and I cashed a winning wager against Golden State last night. The Warriors never led by the 14 point margin they were being asked by the betting markets to win by; unable to pull away from feisty Philadelphia. That matters tonight, especially when we consider this Steve Kerr quote about Golden State’s frenzied East Coast road swing: “Here you go, Golden State, here’s your marquee game against the Spurs on a Saturday night on ABC and it’ll be your eighth game in 12 days with 10,000 miles. Like, it’s insane. So I’ve gotta be very, very careful about our players’ welfare and make sure they’re fresh and not too fatigued. Because we know that can lead to injury.” Instead of emptying his bench last night, keeping the Warriors veteran legs fresh, Coach Kerr was forced to play his starters for extended minutes. Draymond Green, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson all played 35+ minutes, with Kevin Durant just short of that number. Given the mediocrity of the Warriors bench play of late, and their 1-5 ATS mark on the second night of road back-2-backs this year, I can understand Kerr’s concerns. And with two more sets of back-2-backs in a ten game stretch with court changes for each contest, keeping his team fresh is FAR more important than earning a victory this evening – they’re going to be the #1 overall seed in the playoffs, win or lose this evening. Washington went into the All Star Break on a 15-2 SU roll, and both losses came in games where the Wizards had the lead with one second left. They came out of the break sluggish, with a loss at Philly. Then they got out-physical-ed in a bad home loss to Utah on Sunday. This is a ‘circle the wagons’ spot for a team that has done little but win games and cover pointspreads for the better part of the last two months. It’s surely worth noting that prior to the loss to the Jazz, Washington hadn’t lost by more than six points at home since December 6th against Orlando, a lifetime ago for this team. I’ not expecting Washington to suddenly start getting crushed repeatedly in what has been a VERY strong home court for months! Take the Wizards. |
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02-27-17 | Oklahoma +14.5 v. Kansas | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma (#529) It’s senior night in Lawrence, which means one thing: the betting markets are going to inflate the home court edge for Kansas this evening. That leaves a Kansas team that has truly been a miserable favorite all year in a pointspread range they are not likely to cover; an over-valued commodity this evening. The results don’t lie. Kansas is a 25% ATS proposition at home this year, cashing only three winning bets on this floor all season! They’re 3-8 ATS when laying -12 or higher, not a team that builds and maintains big margins very easily. It’s not like the Jayhawks have dominated this series either. Their last win against Oklahoma by enough of a margin to cover tonight’s pointspread came back in 2012; Lon Kruger’s first season on the job And while the market’s are knee-jerking towards the Jayhawks with ‘senior night for Frank Mason and company on their minds, it’s worth noting several key factors here. First, Kansas is adjusting their starting lineup to reflect senior night. Tyler Self, the coach’s son with 19 minutes of playing time all year, will get the start tonight. Secondly, and just as importantly, Bill Self has one goal tonight – win the game, and let Frank Mason and Landon Lucas get the standing ovations coming off the court that they deserve. The end game here in the final few minutes is far more about standing ovations than maintaining big margins. There’s ample respect between Lon Kruger and Bill Self, and this is no ‘run up the score’ spot. Frankly, Oklahoma might well be able to give them a competitive game throughout, playing their best basketball of the year right now. The Sooners have been great in this role all year, a perfect 5-0 ATS as double digit underdogs. They’ve covered the spread in four straight games, including tight, competitive contests on the road at Baylor (six point loss) and at Oklahoma State (four point loss). A similar margin tonight would be no surprise for this bettor! Take Oklahoma. |
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02-27-17 | Heat -1 v. Mavs | 89-96 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#511) My clients and I have cashed a handful of bets supporting the Miami Heat of late. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Miami write-up: “The betting markets have had a legitimately tough time pricing the Miami Heat correctly since the calendar turned to 2017. The Heat spent the first two months of the season as injury riddled bottom feeders, ranked among the bottom five teams in the NBA in my power ratings (and most others). “But instead of tanking, Miami got hot and stayed hot, putting together a 14-2 SU and ATS run in the month before the All Star Break. These type of results give oddsmakers fits. Should Miami be priced as a lottery team? A heavyweight? A fringe playoff contender? The markets don’t seem to know how high they should adjust their power rating for Miami.” The Heat have looked even better now than they did before heading into the break, notching back-2-back blowouts over the Pacers and Hawks, both playoff caliber teams. Miami just got back both Josh Richardson and Okaro White, giving Erik Spoelstra (my CLEAR choice for NBA Coach of the Year) a deeper rotation to work with. Led by Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic, this team should be priced like an elite squad, not a mediocre one. To put this pointspread in perspective, the Mavs were TWO point home dogs against struggling New Orleans on Saturday. My power ratings have the Heat priced five points higher than New Orleans as of today, yet the Heat are only one point chalk in Dallas as I write this on Monday morning. Dallas will be better with Nerlens Noel patrolling the low post, but they’re still a very mediocre team dealing with a change at point guard (former starter Deron Williams has been cut). It’s not like the Mavs have a dominant home court edge: they’re 15-14 SU on this floor this year. Expect that record to drop to .500 at the conclusion of tonight’s game! Take the Heat. |
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02-27-17 | Warriors v. 76ers +14 | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#506) All the Sixers do is cover pointspreads, the single best ATS team in the NBA this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS as favorites. In their other 55 games, they’re 36-19 ATS, cashing at a 65% clip for the entire season; a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting markets. That hasn’t changed in recent weeks, despite Philly attracting some media attention because they’ve finally stopped losing every game in SU fashion, like they did in each of the last three seasons. And when you talk about undervalued home courts, Philly stands out like a sore thumb. A home court that was essentially worthless for the past three years is producing dividends now. The results don’t lie. Waaaaaaay under the radar, the 76ers are now 9-2 SU, 11-0 ATS in their home games since the calendar turned to 2017; the only losses coming in spread covering fashion by five against Houston and by eight against San Antonio. Philly has only lost four home games by double digit margins all year, three of which came in the first month of the season, when they were still awful. This is a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word. The Warriors don’t take Philadelphia very seriously – they’ve got bigger fish to fry. The Warriors won by 12 at home as 21.5 point favorites in the most recent meeting between the two teams. The Warriors last two trips to Philly have been tight, competitive games, with Golden State winning by three and five points as 16.5 and 15.5 point favorites. I’m not expecting the Warriors ‘A’ game tonight, especially with a much tougher test at Washington on tap for the second night of back-2-backs tomorrow. And this Steve Kerr quote is worth noting as the Warriors head east for this road trip: “Here you go, Golden State, here’s your marquee game against the Spurs on a Saturday night on ABC and it’ll be your eighth game in 12 days with 10,000 miles. Like, it’s insane. So I’ve gotta be very, very careful about our players’ welfare and make sure they’re fresh and not too fatigued. Because we know that can lead to injury.” Expect his concerns about freshness to be a different maker ATS tonight. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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02-26-17 | Illinois +4 v. Nebraska | 73-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#845) Nebraska can’t be laying points to anyone expect true bottom feeders right now, while the Illini are on an upward surge, finally breaking through on the road. Put those two factors together and the Huskers are an easy fade as favorites tonight in a game they’ll be hard pressed to win, let alone winning by any sort of margin! Illini head coach Jim Groce has been pounding a ‘Climb the Ladder’ mantra as Illinois has bounced back from a terrible start to the Big 10 campaign, a ‘one game at a time’ mentality to get back into ‘Bubble’ consideration. “We can’t control a month from now. We can’t rewind and change the result of a game. We can’t do that. What we can do is learn from every circumstance and work to get better every day. That’s really all we’re talking about right now.” And the team has bought into that mentality, winning three of their last four including their first two quality road wins of the season, at Northwestern and Iowa – two teams that are much better than Nebraska right now. Point guard Te’Jon Lucas: “If we hear somebody talking about, we tell them we’ve got to focus on the next game. That’s what dictates the future. Of course you’ve got the future and know about the tournament and stuff, but you’ve got to win the next game to get there. You’ve got to focus on winning games and playing to the best of our ability.” While the young Illini have finally learned how to win in SU fashion on the highway, the Huskers are falling apart. Head coach Tim Miles is clearly on the hot seat for a team that is 3-9 SU in their last dozen games. It’s surely worth noting that two of the three wins came by 3 points and 1 point, not enough to cover the -4 they’re being asked to lay today. And this is not a particularly strong homecourt these days either – they’ve lost in Lincoln to Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwestern and Wisconsin in Big 10 play. ‘Live dog’ here! Take Illinois. |
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02-26-17 | Pelicans v. Thunder -6.5 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma City (#814) New Orleans may end up being a force to be reckoned with in a month or two. But tonight’s game against Oklahoma City is fraught with problems, leaving Alvin Gentry’s squad as a ‘bet-against’ squad as they try to work DeMarcus Cousins into the flow. Cousins quote speaks volumes. “I think it's a great opportunity. I think we both can learn from one another. Our games compliment one another. Being together, I think, is going to make our jobs a lot easier. I'm excited for the opportunity. I think we can wreak havoc on this league. Will it happen overnight? Probably not. But the potential is scary.” Note his words: ‘Will it happen overnight? Probably not!” Alvin Gentry concurs: "It's just a matter of putting it all together and, obviously, there's a chemistry thing. But I don't see that as a problem at all I think their (Davis' and Cousins') games are very complementary and it gives us an opportunity. Also, one of the areas we've struggled in is the rebounding part of it, especially giving up offensive rebounds. I think….we can put a really big team out there on the floor.” In the two games with Boogie and Brow on the court, New Orleans has been outrebounded ( a net -1), by two teams that are ranked #12 and #30 in rebounding differential this year – the ‘dominating the glass’ portion of the equation isn’t working yet. Neither is the ‘ball handling’ piece of the equation – the Pelicans have 20+ turnovers in their last two games, exactly what we would expect from a team that just went through a complete makeover in the past week. Alvin Gentry: “ We are not going to be able to go anywhere until we solve the turnover thing. The turnovers were bad decisions. It doesn't have anything to do with us not coming together. A lot of them were unforced." OKC ranks #3 in the NBA in turnover differential, and they rank #2 in the NBA in rebounding differential – strong in the areas where New Orleans is weak right now. The return of Enes Kanter following an extended injury absence was a huge boost for their frontcourt in their win over the Lakers in the first game back from the All Star Break. Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson just got their first practice in with the team, a notch or two more acclimated then they were. Facing a struggling New Orleans team on the second night of back-2-backs, expect OKC to run this team out of the gym! Take the Thunder. |
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02-25-17 | 76ers +5.5 v. Knicks | 109-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#505) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: The Knicks have no business as -5.5 point favorites. The Knicks have a grand total of ONE pointspread cover all year when laying more than 4.5 points, and that came back on November 9th against the worst team in the league (Brooklyn). The last time the Knicks won a game by more than five points at home came back on January 12th against the Bulls; when Chicago was in complete disarray. They are 2-7 SU at home since that win, losing SU to the likes of Phoenix, Denver and the LA Lakers during that span. The Knicks lost to Philly in SU fashion as favorites in the first meeting between these two teams this year. They went into the All Star Break with a double digit loss and came out with another double digit loss. And there’s certainly not much positive chemistry floating around this locker room right now. Derrick Rose, following their loss to open the second half: "It's a different offense. As a point guard, you're always in the corner and just got to play off reads and play that way. It's new for everybody here. I get all my points off random baskets. Unless you see it go to the post, all the other stuff is just random basketball." Carmelo Anthony: “I think they were kind of planning on the trade deadline whether they were trying to make moves. I think that was one plan. Now they've got to get back to the drawing board and come up with another plan about the future of this team." Plain and simple – these are not the kinds of quotes I’m looking for out of my veteran leaders on a struggling team. All the Sixers do is cover pointspreads, the single best ATS team in the NBA this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS as favorites and just 1-3 ATS as huge underdogs of +14 or higher. In every other game, they’re 34-16 ATS, cashing at a 68% clip for the entire season in pointspread ranges like this one. Throw in a 4-0 ATS mark in their last four tries on the second night of back-2-backs and the case for the Sixers is perfectly clear. Take the 76ers. |
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02-25-17 | Purdue v. Michigan OVER 140 | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Purdue OVER (#629-630) The Wolverines are a dead nuts Over team when stepping up in class, against strong offensive foes. Why? Because Michigan’s offense is pretty darn efficient, but their defense is spotty at best! When the Wolverines faced the Boilermakers earlier this season, Purdue’s inside/outside balance gave the Wolverines fits as Purdue shot 53% from the floor in a 17 point win. The UCLA game stands out as well; another game against a strong offensive foe in which the Wolverines defense was hopeless, right from the opening tip; a game where the Bruins scored 102 points, flying Over the total by 40. The stats show it very clearly. The Wolverines rank #12 out of 14 Big 10 teams in defensive efficiency. They rank #327 in the country defending the three point line. They don’t force many turnovers either, leading to consistently poor defensive showings against the elite offensive teams. Purdue ranks among the Top 20 teams in the country in offensive efficiency, and I expect Purdue to approach or exceed their point total from the first meeting. Michigan struggled offensively at Purdue: only seven made free throws, less than 38% shooting overall and just 24% shooting from three point range. But the Wolverines still had a strong assist-to-turnover ratio in that game, and the Wolverines offense is a completely different animal in Ann Arbor, where they have scored 76 points per game on 49% shooting for the full season. They’ve hung 90 on Indiana and 86 on Michigan State in recent games at Crisler Arena; primed for another offensive outburst here. Take the OVER. |
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02-25-17 | Baylor v. Iowa State -2 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#582) My clients and I have cashed three winning bets supporting Iowa State here in February, and there’s little reason to think that the betting markets have caught up with the streaking Cyclones! Here are some recent quotes, telling the story of Iowa State’s recent surge: 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six ballgames, the lone loss coming on the road in Austin by a single bucket. Head coach Steve Prohm: “I think we have tough kids, that helps. You stay focused on the present, then you have a chance to continue to get better.” Senior guard Naz Mitrou-Long: “It definitely feels awesome to be playing our best basketball of the season (down the stretch)….We just want to go 1-0. That’s been our motto the whole year. Win the day. It’s an awesome position to be in, but we’re not done.” Point guard Monte Morris: “We’re still waiting for that night when everybody is on fire. I feel like it’s coming soon. It’s the best time to play basketball, going into March. I’m glad we’re peaking right now as opposed to early December.” And the Cyclones will have particular focus for this game, facing a Baylor team that has beaten them five straight times since the start of the 2014-2015 season. All five of those Bears victories came by nine points or less – competitive games – including a one point loss, a two point loss and an OT loss for the Cyclones. At home, this veteran, senior laden squad is primed for some payback! Baylor has been a consistent moneyloser, just 5-10 ATS since their 13-0 start earned them a #1 overall ranking and left them completely overvalued to the talent level on hand. Baylor’s only SU wins in February have come against Big 12 bottom feeders: Oklahoma & TCU, with the lone exception of a 54% shooting effort in a three point win at Oklahoma State. I’m not expecting the Bears to approach 54% shooting this afternoon…. Take Iowa State. |
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02-24-17 | Heat +4 v. Hawks | 108-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#847) The betting markets have had a legitimately tough time pricing the Miami Heat correctly since the calendar turned to 2017. The Heat spent the first two months of the season as injury riddled bottom feeders, ranked among the bottom five teams in the NBA in my power ratings (and most others). But instead of tanking, Miami got hot and stayed hot, putting together a 14-2 SU and ATS run in the month before the All Star Break. These type of results give oddsmakers fits. Should Miami be priced as a lottery team? A heavyweight? A fringe playoff contender? The markets don’t seem to know how high they should adjust their power rating for Miami. The Heat have legit potential to be better today than they were before heading into the break. Miami is expected to get back both Josh Richardson and Okaro White, giving Erik Spoelstra (my CLEAR choice for NBA Coach of the Year) a deeper rotation to work with. Led by Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic, the Heat blew out the Hawks 116-93 when they met earlier this month. And I’m not convinced that the Hawks are going to perform 27 points better this time around! Atlanta came out of the All Star Break flat last year, losing SU as -10 home favorites. The year before, Atlanta came out of the break and lost by 25 at home, as favorites. Mike Budenholzer’s track record in games like this one is not very good, nor have the Hawks been covering spreads as short favorites, just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 tries as single digit home chalk. Live dog here – be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline for this one! Take the Heat. |
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02-24-17 | Lakers +10.5 v. Thunder | 93-110 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take the LA Lakers (#851) Expect the Lakers to show up in a big way tonight! LA was playing pretty good basketball for a few weeks prior to the All Star Break, riding an 8-2 ATS run, including outright upset wins against the Pacers, Knicks, Nuggets and Bucks. But LA lost a one point heartbreaker to Sacramento, then were complete no-shows on the second night of back-2-backs in Phoenix just prior to the break. First, the Phoenix game was an aberration. LA had one other clear ‘no-show’ game in 2017, losing at Dallas 122-73 in late January. They really stepped it up in their next game, nearly pulling the outright upset in Portland, the start of a 5-0 run. Luke Walton was not amused following that no-show in Dallas and coaxed a strong effort out of his squad next time out. Here’s Walton’s quote following the loss at Phoenix prior to the break: “We're going to lose games and I'm OK with that and I know that. But when we give in like that and don't play with a certain competitive level, that's not right for anybody that's involved.” Then there’s the Magic Johnson factor. Owner Jeanie Buss cleaned house in the front office over the break, bringing in Magic Johnson as team president and former player agent Rob Pelinka as GM. I expect this to have at least a short term impact as he looks to reshape the roster. Magic was at practice yesterday- guys know he’s around. LA’s not going to ‘lay down’ here – they’re coming to play. And when the Lakers come to play, they can hang with OKC. In fact, the Lakers beat the Thunder in SU fashion the last time these two teams met, back in November. OKC as a double digit favorite this year? How about zero pointspread covers in that role! The Thunder just remade their roster following a big trade deadline deal in Chicago – we can expect some on court chemistry issues if Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott suit up. If they don’t, they’ll be playing short-handed; not what I’m looking for out of my double digit favorite. Expect a competitive contest. Take the Lakers. |
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02-23-17 | Hornets +4.5 v. Pistons | 108-114 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Charlotte (#503) Charlotte endured a truly brutal stretch of games prior to the All Star Break, suffering through a nasty 1-11 skid. Six of those losses came by five points or less, competitive contests where the Hornets just couldn’t hit a key shot or get a key stop during crunch time of the fourth quarter. Head coach Steve Clifford hasn’t thrown in the towel following that skid. Charlotte trails Detroit by only 2.5 games for the #8 seed in the East. Clifford: “We have a good group. The work (ethic) has not been a problem. We've just been inconsistent. Frankly, we just haven't made the progress that I thought we would by now. But we have time. Twenty-six games, that's a third of the season. Our guys, I don't think they'll go away. They want to win." Let’s not forget that a .500 level Hornets team last year went 21-8 following the break. The Pistons put all of their key players on the trading block prior to the deadline, including Andre Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson, three key starters. That’s never a good thing for locker room chemistry. And Stan Van Gundy has not been a maestro at guiding Detroit to ATS success with extra time to prepare. Detroit lost by double digits as two point dogs against the Wizards in their first game after the break last year. This isn’t new or different for Detroit under Van Gundy. With three days or more of rest between games, the Pistons are 0-fer the 2016-17 season SU and ATS, a role they struggled repeatedly in last year as well. In the two meetings between these two teams since the beginning of December, Charlotte won by 10 and lost by 1, covering the spread both times. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the Hornets. |
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02-22-17 | Fresno State +8.5 v. San Diego State | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Fresno State (#755) All four meetings between these two schools over the past two years have been EXTREMELY tight. San Diego State won by 3 and by 6 in overtime. Fresno State won by 5 and by 1. And there’s little reason to think that tonight’s game will be dramatically different from those recent meetings. It’s late February. San Diego State has a grand total of THREE pointspread covers at home for the entire season! Attendance is down at Viejas Arena – after 80 consecutive regular season sellouts, the Aztecs haven’t filled the building in their last four tries; not even against rival UNLV this past weekend. Even the students didn’t collect their full allotment of tickets for the game against the Rebels. One of the toughest homecourts in college basketball in recent seasons just isn’t so tough in 2017. San Diego State also has a real problem with blowing leads. They’ve done it in each of their last two games, letting double digit leads in the second half shrink into ‘stress level’ territory; not atypical for a team that just doesn’t have a go-to’ scorer to stem opposing runs. No surprise, then, that the Aztecs are just 2-7 ATS when laying -7.5 or higher this year, a bad pointspread role for Steve Fisher’s squad. Fresno won nine straight games down the stretch last year (8-1 ATS) capturing the Mountain West Tournament title at the end of that streak; a streak that began in mid-February, as Rodney Terry’s team played their best basketball at this stage of the campaign. And, fresh off back-2-back wins, the Bulldogs appear to be peaking at the right time again this year. Coach Terry, talking about their success running their halfcourt offense in a win over New Mexico this past weekend: “It definitely gives you some confidence to be able to do that… we’re just getting to a point right now where we’re able to play through some guys, and when you’re able to get older and get some experience, you’re able to do that and control that a lot more, say, ‘Hey, this is what we want on this possession and let’s execute right now.’ ” Senior forward Paul Watson: “Each possession, you have to value the ball. That’s something we haven’t done as well as we did last year, but it’s definitely something we’re working on. You have to get a shot up every possession. You can’t afford to turn it over. You have to get a good look and give yourself a chance.” Expect the Bulldogs to ‘give themselves a chance’ to win this one in SU fashion! Take Fresno. |
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02-22-17 | Oklahoma State +4 v. Kansas State | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma State (#735) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Kansas State as favorites in their last home game, a straight up loss to Iowa State. And there’s ample reason to think that Bruce Weber’s squad will be hard pressed to notch the SU win tonight, let alone pulling away to win this game by margin. The Wildcats are in a world of hurt right now, losers of five of their last seven. The two victories came by a combined five points, neither by enough of a margin to cover this pointspread. As a ‘bubble’ team, the betting markets are factoring ‘must win’ into this equation, even though the Wildcats have lost four of their last five at home while failing repeatedly in other recent ‘must win’ spots. Let’s not forget about the struggles for Bruce Weber’s squad laying points, just 2-6 ATS as single digit favorites this season. Bruce Weber’s players have a ‘we’re not playing well at home’ mentality right now, never a good thing for any home favorite. Guard Wesley Iwundu: “I think we carry a different mentality when we play on the road than we do at home. I think we’re too comfortable at home and it shows in the beginning of games.” Guard Barry Brown: “Maybe it’s just the fact that we don’t feel like people expect us to win on the road so we have a little more fire under us. We shouldn’t have as many losses as we do at home, especially in a row. It’s really bad right now.” Oklahoma State’s loss to Kansas State at home was their low point of the season, as they fell to 0-6 in Big 12 play. It marked a turning point for first year head coach Brad Underwood. Since that defeat, the Cowboys are 8-1 SU, the lone loss coming by only three points to Baylor. That includes SU and ATS road wins at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU during that span! Underwood, talking about the turnaround: “It’s a multitude of things. Implementing a new style or a new system was part of it. It’s a culture change. It was up to me as we got into league play, I had to figure a few things out in terms of what was working and what was not working and what we could do. We made some subtle changes defensively and those have helped. We’ve been a good offensive team throughout so we’ve been able to tweak some things there and continue to be efficient on that end of the court…. The one thing I’m really proud of is it speaks volumes to the character in our locker room. The changes helped, but it’s really a tribute to the players and the locker room and their accountability to each other has been instrumental.” Ride the hot, fade the cold! Take Oklahoma State. |
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02-22-17 | Duke -3 v. Syracuse | 75-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#723) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Syracuse at home last week against Louisville. We cashed another winning bet against the Orange when they faced Georgia Tech on the road this past Saturday. And there’s no reason to think that Jim Boeheim’s squad is suddenly about to turn things around as they face off against mighty Duke at home tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last anti-Orange write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “Syracuse has no depth whatsoever. Tyler Lydon has played every minute of Syracuse's last ninegames, including all 45 minutes of both overtime games the Orange have played during this span. Andrew White has also played every minute of every one of those games. John Gillon has averaged 40 minutes per game over the last six games for the Orange. I'm not convinced this team will have much spring in their step come crunch time here.” Syracuse has another problem besides depth for this matchup. Boeheim’s zone isn’t working against opposing three point shooters, in part because of those tired legs from key starters. In ACC play, the Orange have allowed opponents to hit better than 40% from beyond the arc. That’s an emerging defensive weakness that the sharp shooting Blue Devils, best in the ACC at draining three pointers (better than 40% in conference play) are primed to exploit. The Blue Devils won by eight points on their last visit to the Carrier Dome. They’ve been winning tough games in hostile environments all season, including SU road wins at Virginia, Notre Dame and Wake Forest, in their last three tries. And Duke’s ability to convert at the free throw line (83% in their last five games!) gives them a legitimate opportunity to extend this lead late, should we need it. Take Duke. |
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02-21-17 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Georgia Tech (#540) Georgia Tech has been mispriced since Day 1 this year, and they’re still mispriced here in late February, with the betting markets simply unwilling to regard the Yellow Jackets as a quality squad. It’s easy to understand why – Josh Pastner’s squad wasn’t supposed to be any good this year, ranked ahead of only 9-19 Boston College in the preseason projections. This team was a 3.5 point home underdog to Ohio U from the MAC back in November, a clear illustrator of how far off the markets have been. The Ramblin’ Wreck are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 lined games. They’ve’ pulled off outright upsets at home against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame already in ACC play. They haven’t lost a home game since January 7th against mighty Louisville. The Yellow Jackets defensive numbers on this floor have truly been impressive, holding foes to 36% shooting for the SEASON. And let’s not forget how easily they beat the Wolfpack in the first meeting, back when NC State still cared; covering the spread wire-to-wire in a double digit road victory. Yellow Jackets guard Justin Moore: “Coach (Josh Pastner) always tells us each game is big, but I think these next couple games, the home stretch, is very key for us.” Guard Corey Heyward: “I think it’ll be intense….. we get our energy from our fans, so it’ll be fun.” A month ago, NC State appeared to be in pretty good shape. They were at 14-7 overall following an impressive 84-82 road win at Duke behind a 32 point outburst from Dennis Smith. Then the bottom dropped out. It’s been seven consecutive losses for the Wolfpack. Head coach Mark Gottfried has already been fired, but he’s in the awkward position of being a lame duck for the final few weeks of the season. We saw how NC State responded to the news of Gottfried’s impending departure – a no show, at home against Notre Dame. Don’t be fooled by the final score of that game – the Wolfpack were down by 13 at halftime and by 23 midway through the second half before Notre Dame backed off and started burning clock, leading to ‘only’ a nine point home loss. It’s surely worth noting that NC State shot 50% from the floor in that game yet they still lost and failed to cover. It’s hard to project the Wolfpack approaching or exceeding that type of shooting percentage tonight. The betting markets are fixating on the bad ‘spot’ for Georgia Tech, in a short turnaround situation off the big Sunday Night win over Syracuse. They’re not fixating on the bad spot for NC State, a dead team, playing out the string, who has been blitzed by 30, 24 and 25 points in their last three road tilts, all non-competitive efforts. Even Gottfried has given up on the regular season: “I told them in the locker room. I saw a team in there that can do some damage in Brooklyn, in the tournament, if we just keep our spirit alive. So that’s where I am.” A team with a lame duck coach who is 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games and already thinking about the ACC Tournament is NOT a bet-on squad, yet that’s exactly what the markets did this morning. Georgia Tech opened at -5.5, was bet down to -4.5 overnight and then to -3 this morning. That added value turns a good play into a Big Ticket worthy wager; a game I expect the home favorite to win rather comfortably. Big Ticket: Take Georgia Tech. |
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02-20-17 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Texas Tech | 82-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#715) Already here in February, my clients and I have cashed winning bets supporting Iowa State as a road dog at Kansas (rewarded with the Cyclones outright upset victory as 10.5 point underdogs) and at Kansas State (rewarded with another outright upset victory just last week). This isn’t new or different for Steve Prohm’s squad. They’ve pulled outright road upsets at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and lost by only two points in tight defeats at Baylor and Texas; consistent moneymakers on the highway. It’s surely worth noting that Iowa State gave the #1 team in the country, undefeated Gonzaga, their toughest test of the season in neutral site non-conference tournament action, losing by a single bucket to the Zags at the Advocare Invitational over Thanksgiving. Catching +2.5 or higher this season, Iowa State is 6-1 ATS, the lone loss coming by less than a bucket at home against the mighty Jayhawks. Plain and simple – this is Iowa State’s best role, catching points away from home. Head coach Steve Prohm: “I think we have tough kids, that helps playing well on the road. We’re defending better on the road, that helps, too, and we’ve shot it well…. We’re trying to beat Texas Tech on Monday night, that’d be one win for us and that’s it. You do that and stay focused on the present, then you have a chance to continue to get better.” Senior guard Naz Mitrou-Long, following their home win over TCU on Saturday: “It definitely feels awesome to be playing our best basketball of the season (down the stretch). It was a collective group effort. Now we have to go to Lubbock and get a huge road win….We just want to go 1-0. That’s been our motto the whole year. Win the day. It’s an awesome position to be in, but we’re not done.” Point guard Monte Morris: “We’re still waiting for that night when everybody is on fire. I feel like it’s coming soon. It’s the best time to play basketball, going into March. I’m glad we’re peaking right now as opposed to early December.” Texas Tech is coming off a brutal scheduling cycle that leaves them short on both energy and confidence in this quick turnaround spot. The Red Raiders are coming off a crushing double OT loss at West Virginia on the heels of one point losses to Kansas and TCU the previous week; the type of late season defeats that can really deflate a team’s psyche in the dog days before conference tournaments start in March. And the short turnaround certainly won’t help Chris Beard’s squad tonight. Key rotation cogs Keenan Evans, Zack Smith and Niem Stevenson all were on the floor for more than 40 minutes in that double OT defeat on Saturday. Expect tired legs and a bruised psyche to be highly problematic for the Red Raiders down the stretch here! Take Iowa State |
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02-19-17 | Syracuse v. Georgia Tech +2.5 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Georgia Tech (#870) The latest Joe Lunardi projections have Syracuse among the last four teams in and Georgia Tech among the last four teams out. The Orange have an RPI just two spots lower than the Yellow Jackets. While there’s no such thing as a ‘Big Dance Elimination Game’ prior to the start of the tournament, the loser of this game will likely be sweating out Selection Sunday far more than the winner. The atmosphere at McCarnish Pavilion will be special on Sunday. The Yellow Jackets haven’t been to the Big Dance since 2010. There’s a rare sellout this evening; only the third sellout of the season, with fans planning a ‘whiteout’. Guard Justin Moore: “Coach (Josh Pastner) always tells us each game is big, but I think these next couple games, the home stretch, is very key for us.” Guard Corey Heyward: “I think it’ll be intense…..sellout (crowd) — we get our energy from our fans, so it’ll be fun.” It’s not like Syracuse has been going on the road and hammering teams all year. The Orange have a grand total of two road victories in eight tries. One came by a single point, the other came in overtime. Defensively, this team has consistently struggled executing Jim Boeheim’s matchup zone defense; allowing 51% shooting for the season on the highway. Syracuse has no depth whatsoever. Tyler Lydon has played every minute of Syracuse’s last seven games, including all 45 minutes of both overtime games the Orange have played during this span. Andrew White has also played every minute of every one of those games. John Gillon has averaged more than 40 minutes per game over the last six games for the Orange. I’m not convinced this team will have much spring in their step come crunch time here. Georgia Tech gave Syracuse fits last year (a three point spread covering loss at Syracuse), and the year before (a one point, spread covering home loss); a perfect 3-0 ATS against the Orange since they became conference rivals. The Yellow Jackets defensive numbers on this floor have truly been impressive, holding foes to 36% shooting for the SEASON. Josh Pastner’s squad has pulled off outright upsets at home against North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame already in ACC play. Another outright upset here would be no surprise to this bettor! Take Georgia Tech. |
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02-18-17 | USC +10 v. UCLA | 70-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Take USC (#657) USC beat UCLA in all three meetings last year, and none of them were particularly close. The Trojans beat the Bruins by 19 here at the Galen Center, by 14 at Pauley Pavilion and by 24 in the PAC-12 Tournament at the MGM Grand in Vegas. The first meeting between these two teams this year wasn’t much closer. USC led by double digits at halftime and rolled to victory as seven point underdogs. That’s four meetings over the last two years, all four of which were covered by USC by more than ten points. But the betting markets do what betting markets do; using long term power rating numbers to set pointspreads; hence the Trojans being installed as double digit underdogs again tonight. And, quite frankly, other than your standard ‘revenge’ motif, there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Bruins match up any better with the Trojans this time around compared to any recent meeting. Let’s not forget that UCLA shot 48% in the first meeting compared to 40% shooting from USC, yet the Bruins still lost by margin. It’s also worth noting that the Trojans didn’t have big man Bennie Boatwright for that game; averaging more than 15 points per game since his return from injury and coming off a three block effort against Oregon. UCLA has one fatal flaw when it comes to pointspreads in this range – the Bruins don’t play shutdown defense; unable to consistently get stops against solid offensive foes like the Trojans. Steve Alford’s squad has failed to cover 19 of their last 26 against PAC-12 competition, including non-covers as double digit favorites against Oregon State, Washington State, Stanford and Cal in recent weeks. Take USC. |
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02-18-17 | SMU -3 v. Houston | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Take SMU (#611) SMU is ranked #23 in the coaches poll, and they are only short road favorites at Houston today. Both the pointspread and the ranking show a clear disrespect for a team that is arguably the most undervalued commodity in the country right now! Sure, SMU was not clicking on all cylinders in November, with Tim Jankovich taking over for Hall of Fame head coach Larry Brown. They lost early season games to Boise, USC and Michigan; none of which were pretty. The markets knee-jerked (as they do), thinking ‘SMU is down this year’. The markets were wrong and ten weeks later, they STILL haven’t adjusted enough! SMU is 19-1 SU in their last 20 ballgames, the lone loss coming by a single bucket at 22-3 Cincinnati, another under-rated team. They’ve been a pointspread machine, cashing 13 winning bets in their last 16 lined contests, and they were -16 or higher in all three games that they didn’t cover. SMU annihilated Houston in the first meeting, an 85-64 blowout that was ugly for the Cougars from the opening tip. And yet they’re still only short road chalk here! Houston is hot: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five games. But all five of those games came against the weak sisters of the AAC; all sub .500 squads in conference play. The Cougars have tried to step up in class three times in conference, against SMU, Cinci and Memphis. They lost all three of those games SU and ATS. If you’re looking for a ‘signature’ win from Kelvin Sampson’s team this year, you won’t find one. Houston can beat the weak, but they cannot hang tough with the strong. SMU isn’t just strong; they’re VERY strong and remain undervalued. And after getting upset on this floor last year, the Mustangs won’t take their in-state rivals lightly here! Take SMU. |
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02-18-17 | Michigan State v. Purdue -9.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Purdue (#572) There’s a class difference between these two squads that is not fully reflected in this pointspread, offering legitimate value on the Boilermakers side in this relatively cheap price range. But more than any other factor, this bet is about Purdue NOT being ranked among the Top 16 teams by the NCAA Selection Committee earlier in the week, a real motivator for a team with something to prove on Saturday in front of a national TV audience! There was nothing fraudulent about Purdue’s eleven point win in East Lansing last month. The Boilermakers were bigger and more physical in the paint, dominating the glass behind a huge effort from Caleb Swanigan ; an elite big man that Sparty just can’t match up with. Young Michigan State got rattled and fell apart – and that was at home, with ample crowd support – despite a huge 33 point effort from Miles Bridges. And it’s certainly not going to get any easier for Tom Izzo’s squad today! Michigan State has been burning money on the highway all year. They lost by 29 at Michigan in their last road tilt, on the heels of losses & non-covers at Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State (in Philly) in Big 10 action. Meanwhile, Purdue has been a serious moneymaker as home favorites (9-3 ATS), while going 11-2 ATS as bigger favorites of -7.5 or higher, simply dominating lesser competition. This year, right now, Michigan State can only be described as ‘lesser competition’. Take Purdue. |
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02-17-17 | Fairfield -1 v. Quinnipiac | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Fairfield (#871) The road team has won every meeting between these two schools dating back to 2014, including a two point Quinnipiac victory in the first meeting this year, less than two weeks ago. That’s the only loss the Stags have suffered in their last six contests overall; a stretch that included a 20 point blowout win in their lone road tilt. Fairfield has won away from home at Manhattan, Boston College, Rider, Wagner and Dartmouth; a veteran squad worthy of support when playing in hostile environments. The Bobcats win at Fairfield was as frustrating as it gets for the Stags. Fairfield led by 11 with seven minutes left before a 19-6 game ending run by Quinnipiac. Bobcats head coach Tom Moore, after the game: “I thought Fairfield was on fumes (exhausted) and..… I just think we were really locked in defensively down the stretch. They scored a few times, but our poise and our composure on offense. … (freshman guard) Peter Kiss took over the last four minutes of the game.” Fairfield head coach Sydney Johnson, following the loss: “I thought we had very poor shot selection, very poor. And then, instead of relying on our defense to close out the game, we were hoping to get it back offensively. I was very disappointed in our shot selection, but we have to learn from it….This is the same team that’s been brilliant defensively these last three games. We had some good moments tonight. This has always been an intense, rivalry game. There was great emotion, but we have to know that we didn’t do our best those last six, seven minutes ….They gutted out the win. We could have done better, to be honest. Credit to Quinnipiac but we have to play better defense and take better shots.” Quinnipiac had a listed attendance of 575 fans in their last home game, a 76-45 loss to St Peter’s; not exactly a particularly hostile home court. Siena beat them here by margin, as did Drexel, Monmouth, Columbia and Vermont. The Bobcats have notched only two wins in their last seven games, a team just biding their time until the MAAC tourney rolls around in two weeks. Facing a particularly focused Stags squad, I’m not expecting the Bobcats to notch the season sweep against a superior team. Take Fairfield. |
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02-16-17 | Arizona State +2 v. Washington | 83-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#753) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winning bets playing AGAINST the Washington Huskies in PAC-12 action. Tonight’s game against Arizona State provides another prime opportunity to fade Lorenzo Romar’s struggling squad. The Huskies are what they are: a one-and-done NBA training ground. They lost DeJounte Murray and Marquese Chriss to the NBA after their freshmen seasons last year, both unexpected departures. And this year’s phenom, Markelle Fultz is certainly worth the hype, with legit #1 overall pick potential. But Fultz is hurt; a huge absence – he’s the only player in the country averaging at least 20 points, six rebounds and six assists per game. Fultz has been back at practice this week, but it doesn’t look as if he’s going to suit up tonight. Head coach Lorenzo Romar: “Each day is different with it. If he continues to make progress we’re probably more optimistic than pessimistic. He’s been running around, shooting, ball-handling a little bit.” Fultz is officially a ‘gametime decision’ here, but the betting markets don’t expect him to play and even if he does, I’m not convinced he’ll be anywhere near 100%. The Huskies – losers of seven straight, and just 7-7 SU at home this year including losses as favorites against Yale, Nevada and Washington State, among others – are worth fading whether Fultz suits up here or not. Arizona State has been an undervalued commodity of late, 5-2 ATS in their last seven ballgames. They’ve been excellent road dogs in PAC-12 play, winning SU and ATS at Stanford and Oregon State while hanging tough in some very hostile environments – losing by only 1 at Oregon and by only 3 at USC, covering the spread by a combined 22 points in those games. Bobby Hurley’s squad is a deadly perimeter shooting team, bad news against the Huskies porous three point defense; allowing 40% from beyond the arc for the SEASON! The Sun Devils hit their free throws (something the Huskies consistently struggle with). Arizona State won on this floor two years ago, took the Huskies to OT here last year and beat Washington by 11 as -4 favorites in the first meeting this year. Wrong team favored…..Take Arizona State. |
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02-16-17 | Celtics v. Bulls OVER 213 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Chicago OVER (#703-704) The Bulls snapped a three game skid with an impressive win over Toronto on Tuesday. Head Coach Fred Hoiberg made it very clear after the game why they won – pushing the pace, turning turnovers into fast break buckets. Ask coach Fred Hoiberg for the key to the Bulls’ victory Tuesday against the Raptors, and he’ll quickly point to their pace of play. Hoiberg highlighted the 20 fast-break points that Chicago got against Toronto. “I think our team is at our best when we can go down and get a quick strike before the defense gets set. You look at the really good elite shooters, and they get a lot of shots in transition. Transition basketball simply provides a greater variety of scoring options.” Center Robin Lopez, talking about pushing the pace: “I think we’re worlds different. That makes everybody a threat on the floor to score.” Several of Chicago’s slower moving players are hurt, most notably Dwayne Wade, not expected to suit up this evening. The absence of backup forward Paul Zipser has led to some tweaking of the reserve units. Doug McDermott, Cristiano Felicio and Denzel Valentine were particularly effective pushing the pace against the Raptors, likely to see floor time together here, too. The Celtics aren’t shy about running up and down the floor, even on the second night of back-2-backs. And when Boston plays a decent or good team on the road, watch out for fireworks. The Celtics are 10-1-1 to the Over in their last dozen road games when facing an opponent with a winning home record. A Celtics team with 21 Over cashes in their last 29 games is worth riding Over here on the night before the All Star Break…. a night where defensive energy and execution are often optional. Take the Over. |
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02-15-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#509) My clients and I have been making money with the 76ers for the better part of the last two months. Tonight’s game in Boston stands out as a prime opportunity to catch this undervalued squad in a particularly strong situational spot, worthy of Big Ticket status. Philly has given Boston trouble in both previous meetings this season. In December, the Celtics were -10, but never enjoyed any separation, beating the Sixers by just a single point. It was a similar story in January. Boston was laying -11 in a game they struggled to win by four, needing a big second half rally to do it. The 76ers covered the spread wire-2-wire in both contests. So what’s different about tonight’s game, Boston is in a worse spot! The Celtics are coming home off a successful road trip, winning at Portland, Utah and Dallas to close it out. They’ve got a TV game in Chicago against the Bulls tomorrow, before everybody bolts for the All Star Break. In between, in this major flat spot, they’ll face a team they’ve beaten in every single meeting since 2012. I am NOT expecting the Celtics ‘A’ game here, particularly bad news for a team that has gone 0-8 ATS when laying -8 or higher this year. Big home chalk off a great road trip is NOT the Celtics role! On the other hand, this IS Philly’s role. The Sixers are 0-3 ATS as favorites this year. They are 1-3 ATS as big underdogs of +14 or more, tough road games against elite teams. In Philly’s other 49 games, where they are not favored and not huge underdogs, the 76ers are 32-17 ATS. Yes, they’ve covered the spread nearly two thirds of the time in those games; a consistently undervalued commodity. The betting markets continue to obsess about Joel Embiid’s status (he’s out again tonight). Earlier in the season, the Sixers couldn’t win without Embiid. That was then, this is now. The Sixers just beat the Heat, Hornets and Magic without their center, winning each of those games as an underdog. Philly should have both Jahlil Okafor (probable) and Nerlens Noel to man the low post tonight. 2014 lottery pick Darko Saric is on fire right now, while point guard TJ McConnell is arguably the single most undervalued player in the league. Just like the first two meetings, we can expect another tight contest tonight. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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02-15-17 | Mavs +5 v. Pistons | 91-98 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#505) The Pistons have been feasting on the weak. They rallied from 16 down in the fourth quarter to beat the slumping Raptors (4-11 SU L15) in their last victory. Prior to that, Detroit’s recent wins have come against the Lakers, 76ers, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Since Christmas, they’ve lost at home to the likes of Sacramento and Milwaukee, and failed to cover as favorites in one point wins against the Wizards and Hornets. Detroit slumped into the All Star Break last year, worn down by Stan Van Gundy’s relentless preaching. They lost their last three heading into the break, including the finale as five point home favorites against Denver; a double digit defeat. It was a similar story in 2015 – a blowout loss at home just prior to the break on the heels of a bad loss as a favorite in their home game prior. This is NOT a team to trust with vacation starting right after the final buzzer. This has not been a good series for the home team, with the road squad winning outright in each of the last six meetings between these squads. The Mavericks have won SU on every visit to the Palace of Auburn Hills dating back to 2012. Unlike Detroit, Dallas has a rock solid pre- All Star Break history under Rick Carlisle, and they’ve played their best basketball of the season in recent weeks. The results don’t lie. Dallas has won outright at Portland, San Antonio, Chicago and Phoenix in recent weeks; part of an under-the-radar 13-4 ATS run. They’ve coming off a loss to Boston; a game where point guard Deron Williams got ejected and was missed, while the Celtics played great. Dallas is 6-0 ATS off their last six losses, an emerging trend worth riding again here. Take the Mavericks. |
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02-15-17 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Kansas State | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#549) My clients and I bet on Iowa State as a road dog at Kansas less than two weeks ago, rewarded with the Cyclones outright upset victory as 10.5 point underdogs. This isn’t new or different for Steve Prohm’s squad. They’ve pulled outright road upsets at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and lost by only two points in tight defeats at Baylor and Texas; consistent moneymakers on the highway. It’s surely worth noting that Iowa State gave the #1 team in the country, undefeated Gonzaga, their toughest test of the season in neutral site non-conference tournament action, losing by a single bucket to the Zags at the Advocare Invitational over Thanksgiving. Catching +3 or higher this season, Iowa State is 100% ATS, a perfect 5-0 in this role. Kansas State’s lone win in their last six tries against the Cyclones came by a single point; consistently struggling against their high octane foe. And the Wildcats are in a world of hurt right now, losers of five of their last six, the lone victory coming by a single bucket. As a ‘bubble’ team, the betting markets are factoring ‘must win’ into this equation, even though the Wildcats have lost three of their last four at home while failing repeatedly in other recent ‘must win’ spots. Let’s not forget about the struggles for Bruce Weber’s squad laying points, just 1-5 ATS as single digit favorites this season. Even if the Wildcats win this one – and that’s a big ‘if’ – I’m not expecting any sort of margin whatsoever. Take Iowa State. |
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02-14-17 | Boise State +2.5 v. New Mexico | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Boise State (#753) Boise is the best team in the Mountain West right now, standing alone in first place. And the Broncos have got a real chip on their collective shoulders as they travel to the Pit in Albuquerque tonight. Boise led by 15 on this floor late in the second half on their visit to the Pit last year before New Mexico closed out the game on a 19-2 run to win by a bucket. And the Lobos pulled off the upset at Taco Bell Arena in Boise last month behind a red hot shooting effort: 50% from the floor and from three point range; 21-22 from the line. But without the injured Tim Williams, who led the Lobos in scoring that night (he’s their second leading scorer overall), the Lobos offensive production has taken a real hit and their defense has declined as well. Attendance is down at the Pit again this year, and New Mexico has shown real vulnerability at home. They’ve lost to sub .500 squads like San Jose and UNLV on this floor in recent weeks; notching just two pointspread covers in ten tries on this floor this year. Meanwhile, the veteran Broncos have been taking care of business on the highway, winning SU and ATS at Utah State, UNLV, San Jose, Wyoming and Colorado State already in conference play. This is a team we can trust to hang tough in hostile environments. Boise State senior Nick Duncan: “It’s one of my favorite places to play. I believe my first start was there and I was pretty nervous, but it’s a great place to play and a great environment. There’s nothing better than going down there and getting a road win at The Pit. We’re just going to have to play team basketball and hopefully get that ‘W’…..We just have to take the same mentality we have the last six road games. … We have our goal of winning the Mountain West and we know we can do it.” I concur. Take Boise State. |
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02-13-17 | Warriors v. Nuggets +12 | 110-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#518) Even the mighty Warriors aren’t impervious to truly bad spots, like the one they’re in tonight. The Warriors are coming off a huge statement game national TV win in Kevin Durant’s return to Oklahoma City. That came on the heels of their statement game ‘double revenge’ win at Memphis. This is the final game of their road trip, and they’ve got another revenge spot on tap for their finale before the All Star Break, after losing at Sacramento earlier this month. Playing in altitude, against a team they beat by 24 on their last visit to the Pepsi Center, this is not a spot where we can expect maximum intensity for the double digit road favorite. Golden State doesn’t have many matchup problems, but their bevy of low post injuries leave them in a tough spot, matchup-wise, tonight. They won’t have center Zaza Pachulia or big man David West, both out with injuries. Expect veteran backup JaVale McGee to have his hands full defending emerging Denver big man Nikola Jokic, averaging 23 points 10 rebounds and 5 assists per game since the calendar turned to 2017, with the five highest scoring games of his career all coming in the last month. Power forward Darrel Arthur: "He's a tough guard. I don't know how anybody can guard him. He makes the offense 10 times better when he's out on the court. He makes everyone better -- and he's still getting better.” The Warriors have been burning money as double digit road chalk, just 2-7 ATS in their last nine tries in this role. The two ‘W’s came against the two worst teams in the league, Brooklyn and Orlando. Meanwhile the Nuggets have been consistent moneymakers on this floor of late; 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven tries at the Pepsi Center. Golden State shot 53% from the floor the last time these two teams met, back in January. Despite those impressive shooting numbers, the Nuggets covered the spread wire-2-wire in an eight point loss. A similar result tonight would be no surprise for this bettor…but its surely worth noting that the Warriors last two SU losses both came against sub .500 opposition. Take the Nuggets.
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02-13-17 | Louisville -3 v. Syracuse | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Louisville (#527) Fatigue matters at this stage of the college basketball season. Teams power ratings aren’t variating wildly by mid-February – the advanced metric numbers are what they are. Bettors aren’t going to find many games where the pointspread is far off from where the season long power ratings say they should be. The edges bettors can find at this time of the year in college hoops have a lot to do with the ‘freshness’ factor. And there’s a huge mismatch in that regard for tonight’s short turnaround game between Syracuse and Louisville, with both teams having played on Saturday. Syracuse has no depth whatsoever. Tyler Lydon has played every minute of Syracuse’s last six games, including all 45 minutes in the overtime win at NC State., Andrew White has also played every minute of every one of those games. John Gillon has averaged more than 39 minutes per game over the last five games for the Orange. Jim Boeheim’s squad looked totally gassed in the second half of their loss at Pitt on Saturday. A short turnaround against a team that will press for 40 minutes is a nightmare matchup for the Orange here. Louisville is in a MUCH better situation when it comes to fatigue for this short turnaround game. Point guard Quentin Snyder got back on the floor on Saturday against Miami following a four week absence, working the rust out. Mangok Mathiang and Deng Adel were both suspended vs. Virginia last Monday and came off the bench against Miami; both relatively fresh here. So, while the power rating number says this line is where it should be, from a situational standpoint the road favorite Cardinals have the clear edge. Take Louisville. |
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