For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-24-17 | Jazz +4.5 v. Clippers | 84-102 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Take the Utah Jazz (#711) The concept here is simple. The Clippers didn’t face anybody playing ‘A’ level defense in the preseason, because nobody plays ‘A’ level defense in the preseason. In their first two regular season games, the Clippers faced the Suns and Lakers, arguably the two worst defensive teams in the NBA. Tonight, LA is laying points to a team that, without a shadow of a doubt, plays elite level defense on a nightly basis. I expect that to be a real problem for LA…… To make matters worse for the Clippers, they’re playing without their expected starting point guard, European sensation Milos Teodosic. And they’ve struggled to match up with the Jazz repeatedly, as clearly evidenced by their first round playoff loss to them last spring; a series where Utah won three times on LA’s home floor including Games 5 and 7. Look for the Jazz interior duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to have their hands full against Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors this evening, leaving the Clips without a legitimate matchup edge anywhere on the floor. That’s bad news for any favorite…..Take the Jazz |
|||||||
10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -167 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#902) There’s no reason to overthink this one. The Dodgers went 23-4 in Clayton Kershaw’s starts in the regular season and they’ve gone 3-0 in the playoffs for their ace. Last year, LA went 17-4 in Kershaw’s 21 regular season starts and 4-1 in his postseason outings. And LA closed out 2015 with an 8-2 mark in Kershaw’s final ten starts (including the playoffs). Add it all up and we’re talking about a team that has gone 55-11 in their ace’s last 66 starts, including an 8-2 mark in the postseason. Yet the price is very reasonable to support Kershaw this evening. And It’s surely worth noting how dominant the Dodgers bullpen has been, entering the World Series with an MLB record 23 consecutive scoreless innings in the postseason. Dallas Keuchel has a career home/road dichotomy that hasn’t gone away, even as he’s developed into an elite ace. For his career, Keuchel has a losing record on the highway, with an ERA more than a run and a half higher than it’s been at home. Those numbers stayed consistent this season: 2.26 at home; 3.53 on the road. Keuchel was dominant in both home playoff starts, but he failed to make it out of the 5th inning of his lone road start at Yankee Stadium, leaving the game with a 4-0 deficit. I trust LA’s lineup more. I trust Clayton Kershaw on regular rest. I like this Kershaw quote, talking about the heat: “Yeah, it is going to be hot. But, no, I don't think it's going to change anything. I think by 5 o'clock, the sun will be down…..I'm from Texas. It's going to be hot for everybody. We're all used to it.'' And I trust the Dodgers bullpen to close the game out. Reasonable price to lay, given the circumstances….. Take the Dodgers. |
|||||||
10-23-17 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Washington UNDER (#513-514) The Nuggets rank #29 in the NBA in possessions per game on offense, playing at a snail’s pace through their first two games, just 0.1 possessions/game higher than the #30 ranked pace squad, Sacramento. Washington has played faster, but they’re not a true uptempo team either, ranked outside the Top 10 in pace ratings. And yet this total is sitting above 222 as I write this on Monday morning, a good notch or two too high! The Nuggets haven’t reached 100 points yet, in large part, because their VERY young point guards are struggling. The Jamal Murray/Emmauel Mudiay combo – a combined 41 years of age – hasn’t been pretty to watch, averaging just 14 points and five assists per game. That duo isn’t likely to have an easy time against All Star John Wall tonight. But Denver ranks #7 in defensive efficiency, with the likes of Paul Millsap, Kenneth Faried and Mason Plumlee all bringing it on the defensive end of the court. Head coach Mike Malone is not a guy who will tolerate consistent defensive breakdowns. The Wizards cashed Over tickets in their first two games, hence this high total. But as we saw repeatedly last year, the Wiz are far more efficient offensively at home than they are on the highway. Head coach Scott Brooks called out his squad for some poor defensive habits after the game; always a good thing for Under bettors next time out. And new starter Kelly Oubre is having an immediate impact on the defensive end of the floor, a strong wing defender. We saw a 92-85 game between these two teams last year, and both teams shot over 41% from the floor – it wasn’t a brickfest. Tonight’s game might be! Take the Under. |
|||||||
10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles OVER 49 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Philadelphia OVER (#477-478) The Eagles offense is a completely different animal compared to last year. When Carson Wentz was a rookie QB, he didn’t show much comfort level throwing downfield to his receiving corps. That’s most assuredly not the case in 2017. The Eagles have scored at least 26 points in five of their first six games. Wentz has improved from a 6.2 yards per pass attempt average last year to a 7.7 yards/attempt average this year, a dramatic improvement. It’s not just Wentz. Unlike last year, the Eagles have had standout left tackle Lane Johnson healthy for most of the season, and he’s expected to play again tonight. Free agent addition RB LaGarrette Blount ranks behind only Kareem Hunt on a yards per carry basis for backs with 65+ carries this season. WR Nelson Agholor has surpassed the TD total from his first two seasons COMBINED through the Eagles first five games, and Agholor’s yards per catch has improved from 10.1 last year to 16.1 this season, stretching opposing defenses from the slot. Throw TE Zack Ertz, having a pro bowl caliber season, and WR’s Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith into the mix and this offense is flat out dynamic, loaded with playmakers at multiple positions. The betting markets haven’t necessarily accepted this just yet. Meanwhile, the Redskins have cluster injury problems in their secondary. Impact rookie pass rusher Jonathan Allen just went on IR, devastating their pass rush. CB Josh Norman: “(Jonathan Allen is) a big loss. I’m not gonna be up here and fake it and say it’s not. It’s a big loss for us because he’s one of our driving forces in the middle. He creates havoc in the middle when he’s on the field.” But Norman won’t have to worry about covering the Eagles receivers without a pass rush – he’s been downgraded to OUT this evening, while his cornerback counterpart on the other side, Bashaud Breeland, is questionable at best. Safeties Stefan McClure, Deshazor Everett and Su’a Crvens are already on IR. This defense is primed to get picked apart all night. But the Redskins offense is no joke either! RB Rob Kelley is expected back on the field tonight, an upgrade for their running game. Chris Thompson has been a difference maker catching passes out of the backfield, while Vernon Davis is still tough to guard over the middle and the likes of Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder give Kirk Cousins every bit as much offensive weaponry to rely on as Carson Wentz has. The Eagles, too, have a bevy of banged up defensive players. Washington, too, has been putting up points in bunches on a consistent basis, hanging 26+ three times in the last four weeks. The ‘Skins have been a very consistent Over team throughout the Jay Gruden era, 19-6 to the Over in their last 25 regular season ballgames. This series has consistently gone Over the total as well, with five Over cashes in the last seven meetings, with the losing team reaching 20 in all six of those contests. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Broncos +2 v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#473) My clients and I have already cashed one Big Ticket winner betting against the Chargers at the StubHub Center in LA. It was a sin of omission not to have more than one winning bet so far against a team with legitimately no home field advantage whatsoever. This week, they’re facing a superior opponent, fully motivated off an embarrassing loss last week; an opponent they’ve already been dominated by once this season. And LA is the favorite here, laying points! I’m not buying it! Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. The numbers show that very clearly through the first six weeks of the season, with a 3:3 TD-INT ratio in three games at home, compared to a 7:2 ratio in three games on the highway. No surprise, then, that the Chargers have yet to win a game or cover a pointspread in their new home. Yet the markets continue to factor in a home field edge for LA. Expect the Broncos to have as many fans (or more) at StubHub as the Chargers do; exactly what we saw in LA’s home losses to the Eagles, Chiefs and Dolphins. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. They’ve lost both previous tries as favorites this season SU and (of course) ATS. The Chargers were largely non-competitive for three quarters of the first meeting between these two squads. Trailing 24-7 in the fourth quarter, LA took advantage of a pair of Broncos turnovers in Denver territory as well as a missed Denver field goal to make the final score (24-21) look closer than the game actually was. Now the Chargers are returning home, fat and happy, off back-2-back tough road wins. Of course, the two wins came against the hapless Giants (0-5 at the time) and the hapless Raiders (major disappointment, injured QB and a four game losing streak). The markets, doing what they do, are convinced that LA is primed to make a run here, but I’m not buying that argument one iota. LA didn’t beat the Giants and Raiders as much as those two sorry teams beat themselves. And they’ll be facing a Broncos squad primed to make a statement off their dismal ‘no-show’ at home against the Giants last week. The Broncos defense was flat last week in a game where they had precious little film to prepare for what they were going to see against the Giants new look offense. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row, especially off a loss and facing a divisional foe. For the season, the Broncos have held foes to 3.0 yards per carry, the #1 ranked run defense in the NFL. The Chargers rank #31 in that category, opponents averaging a full 5.0 yards per carry differential. Denver has a big defensive edge against the pass too, ranked #6 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed compared to the Chargers #16 rank. Plain and simple: Denver is the better of these two teams, and I expect them to show it! Wrong team favored. Big Ticket: Take the Broncos. |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Cardinals v. Rams -3 | 0-33 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#468) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner with LA last week in their double digit win at Jacksonville. While the pointspread this week isn’t as user friendly – I can’t go back to the well with LA for another Big Ticket Report -- I have absolutely no hesitation supporting the Rams with a standard sized wager in London against the Cardinals. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game. That defense played their best two games of the season over the past two weeks; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. “The Rams turned the ball over five times against Seattle two weeks ago, their first ‘turnover plague’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad, and they fixed it last week, even facing the top notch Jags stop unit. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 185 pass attempts for the season, while only taking nine sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football.” The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Cardinals offense; more than a half yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco, at Dallas and at Jacksonville. And LA took this trip last year, a fact that matters considering the trip to London is a brand new thing for the Cardinals. It’s worth noting that Arizona had to fly from the West Coast while the Rams flew out straight from Jacksonville. Arizona has played decently at home this year. Away from home, they’ve been a complete disaster, losing 35-23 at Detroit, barely escaping with a three point OT win as TD favorites at Indy, and blasted 34-7 at Philly. This isn’t a new issue. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, ‘Zona is a woeful 2-6 ATS as an underdog away from home. Both covers came in late December against teams playing for nothing. And there’s no comparison between the Rams solid stop unit and the injury riddled Bucs unit that Carson Palmer and Adrian Peterson shredded last week. Chalk worth laying! Take the Rams. |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Ravens v. Vikings -5.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the Minnesota Vikings (#458) Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. After a win against the struggling Raiders, it was more of the same for the Baltimore offense last week; held to ten points and less than 300 total yards in their OT loss at home to the Bears last week. Don’t be fooled for a moment about the final score of that game. The Ravens got a kick return TD and a punt return TD – otherwise the Bears would have blown them out. And I’m not anticipating two more special teams TD’s this week! The Ravens offense is clearly broken. From a yards per play standpoint, they rank #30 out of 32 NFL teams. Joe Flacco’s QB rating is 66.1 right now. His previous CAREER low was 80.3 as a rookie in 2008. They aren’t likely to have TE Maxx Williams (ankle) or deep threat WR Breshad Perriman (concussion) available, both downgraded to doubtful. TE Ben Watson has a bum knee, WR Mike Wallace has a bad back and WR Jeremy Maclin hurt his shoulder. Facing a staunch Vikings defense – a stop unit that has held all four home opponents under 20 points – we cannot expect the Ravens to suddenly come alive with TD’s in bunches. Baltimore’s defense is quickly becoming every bit as injury riddled and problematic as their offense. Run stuffing DL Brandon Williams has a foot injury, and the Bears ran for 231 yards against them last week, the third time in four games that Baltimore has given up 165+ on the ground. Cornerbacks Jimmy Smith, Jaylen Hill and safety Ladarius Webb are all questionable or doubtful, none of them healthy. Linebacker Tim Williams won’t play. This is truly a nightmarish injury situation, leaving Baltimore as a clear ‘bet-against’ team; far weaker than their 3-3 record would indicate. Minnesota is not! They’ve enjoyed a STRONG homefield edge in their new digs, winning three of their first four home games by double digit margins. In fact, Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in their first twelve regular season games at US Bank Stadium; an emerging trend worth riding especially when facing a clear ‘bet-against’ foe. Take the Vikings. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Yankees v. Astros -127 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Take the Houston Astros (#918) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet on a very busy sports Saturday. Starting pitching matchups don’t factor much into my Game 7 opinions in MLB Playoff action. Instead, I want my money on the better team, plain and simple, especially when the superior squad has positive momentum. Houston is the better of these two teams – ten wins better in the regular season -- particularly when it comes to their ability to hit quality pitching. New York has been held to one run or less four times in their six road playoff games. Houston has scored 27 runs in five home playoffs games; pounding out seven or more on three separate occasions. I trust the Astros to come through with a clutch hit more than the Yankees this evening. And yesterday’s bounceback effort from Justin Verlander really matters in a matchup of two relatively young squads. Houston has faced the abyss – dealing with their Game 4 meltdown and a 3-2 series deficit – and they’ve proven they can respond in positive fashion. The Bronx Bombers rallied back from 2-0 down against the Tribe, but their miracle postseason run ends tonight. Take the Astros. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 52 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#402) Football games are won and lost in the trenches. The astute handicapper will always assess the matchups on the offensive and defensive lines before placing a wager. Those matchups for this game are so one-sided, and the pointspread is so short that the Irish are a clear choice to this bettor, worthy of Big Ticket status. When these two teams met at the end of the season last year, Notre Dame was an injury riddled mess at the tail end of a dismal 4-8 campaign. USC rolled to an 18 point victory as 17.5 point favorites. That was then, this is now. In 2017, it’s USC dealing with a significant injury bugaboo right now – their defensive line is in absolute shambles. Brandon Pili, a true frosh from Alaska, is the only healthy, active regular at defensive tackle. Starter Josh Fatu is in concussion protocol. Five star recruit Kenny Bigelow quit the team. Frosh Marlon Tuipulotu just underwent season ending surgery. Junior Malik Dorton is still dealing with a knee injury he suffered last month. And let’s not forget that starting LB Porter Gustin is out with a broken toe and torn bicep, while starting defensive end Rasheem Green isn’t practicing with an ankle sprain. A cluster injury problem like that would be bad against any foe. Against Notre Dame in South Bend, it’s a freakin’ disaster! The Fighting Irish are LOADED on the offensive line. Senior left tackle Mike McClinchey and junior left guard Quenton Nelson both have ‘first round of the NFL draft’ potential for next spring. All five starters on that line could play on Sundays. Notre Dame ranks #5 in the nation in rushing yards and #2 in the nation in yards per carry. Josh Adams is averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per rush; Dexter Williams is at 10.7 and Deon McIntosh is at 5.8 ypc. Dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush is expected back in the lineup this week, although backup Ian Book played well in his staid in their last game at North Carolina. All five Notre Dame wins this year have come by 20 points or more. Their only loss – by a single point to Georgia – looks better now, with the Bulldogs a Top 5 squad that won all of THEIR other games by 20 points or more. They’ll be facing a Trojans squad in pointspread freefall, overvalued from Day 1 this year to the tune of a 1-6 ATS mark. Notre Dame’s defense has forced multiple turnovers in each of their last five games while their low risk offense has only turned the ball over seven times all season. USC’s offense has committed at least two turnovers in every game, unable to take care of the football. That’s a HUGE problem in a game where the Irish are primed to push USC around at the line of scrimmage and put themselves back in the college football playoff picture. VERY cheap price to lay given the circumstances! Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech -20.5 | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#360) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against North Carolina last week. Let me start this write-up with an extended excerpt from what I wrote last week, all of which is still pertinent to for their trip to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech on Saturday. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “North Carolina is as strong a ‘bet-against’ team as you can find in college football this year. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels anyway after they sent their QB Mitch Trubisky to the NFL after his junior season, along with the likes of Elijah Hood and Ryan Switzer – impact offensive playmakers. A home loss to Cal in Week 1 showed that very clearly. And that was BEFORE the injury bug really started to strike. “Nine guys who have started a game for the Tar Heels this year are now out for the season, and that doesn’t include a whole host of shorter term injuries and another whole host of guys who got hurt in camp, before the season even started. With a pair of ineffective QB’s throwing to a receiving corps that has lost their top five guys to injury, playing behind a weak offensive line and without any semblance of a running game to help them, the Tar Heels offense is stuck in the mud; producing only 48 points in their last four ballgames combined. “North Carolina’s defense is every bit as injury riddled, if not more. And unlike the offense, that defense was short on talent to begin with! The Tar Heels lost their one true leader on defense; the guy who called the plays in the huddle in Andre Smith. He’s out for the year. Senior strong safety Donnie Miles, the team’s career leader in starts, is hurt as well, as is senior DL Tyler Powell, sophomore safety DJ Ford and several others. The only team that North Carolina has been able to stop all year was Old Dominion…” While the Tar Heels are collapsing, the Hokies are in a great spot. They’re fresh, rested and ready off a bye week, looking to open up the offense for young QB Josh Jackson (13 TD passes, 66% completions and 55 rushing attempts already). This defense dominated the Tar Heels last year in a 34-3 win at Chapel Hill, and that was when North Carolina’s offense was elite. Legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster sounds pretty confident that the backdoor won’t be open here: “We’re not anywhere close, in my opinion, to where we can be and the kids see that and are working that way. That’s still exciting, that we can continue to grow and develop as a unit and as a team.” Hokies head coach Justin Fuente has been an excellent bully; 5-1 ATS as home chalk against FBS foes here in Blacksburg. This one gets ugly for the road dog! Take Virginia Tech. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#392) My clients and I cashed a winning bet with the Texas Longhorns last week. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from what I wrote last week. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Here in Austin, with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. Last week, they covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. And when you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last dozen tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-2. That’s Straight Up! They’re 13-0 ATS, the only SU losses coming away from home against teams with Top 5 talent: Oklahoma and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is ‘bet-on’ all the way right now. He threw for 278 yards and ran for 110 vs. the Sooners last week. Herman: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” The Texas defense hasn’t allowed anybody to score more than 27 against them in regulation since their opener against Maryland. They’ve already seen Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, battle tested against elite QB’s and strong passing games. This is, by far, the best defense Oklahoma State has seen since TCU, and we certainly remember how that Cowboys offense got shut down at home by the Horned Frogs….. Take Texas |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri OVER 63 | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 45 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Missouri – Idaho Over (#373-374) When Barry Odom arrived in Columbia, he promised to make the Missouri offense as fast paced as any offense in college football, the ultimate uptempo squad. As with many new, uptempo offenses, the Tigers struggled when stepping up in class, against the better defenses of the SEC. But when Missouri got to face a lesser foe with a slower defense, it got ugly for that opponent. Missouri hung 61 on eastern Michigan, 79 on Delaware State and 45 on Middle Tennessee. All three of those games flew Over the total by more than two touchdowns – even the one where their defense pitched a rare shutout! Fast forward to 2017. Missouri’s offense looked great in their opener against Missouri State; a game where the Tigers scored 72 points and generated more than 800 yards of total offense. But it was culture shock for Drew Lock and the Tigers when they stepped up in class, shut down completely by the likes of South Carolina and Purdue in September. Both of those games stayed Under the total by 4 TD’s or more. The betting markets did what betting markets do – they adjusted Missouri down, way down, from a totals perspective after their offense managed only 14 points for a third straight week, whipped by Auburn. In each of their last two games, Missouri was totaled in the 50’s. Kentucky has a better defense this year than in any recent season. Georgia’s defense is as good as any in the country this side of Alabama and Clemson. Yet Missouri moved the football effectively against both of those squads, scoring 34 and 28 points. No surprise, then, that both games FLEW Over the total by more than two touchdowns. Drew Lock has figured it out at the QB position and Missouri’s offense is really starting to click for the first time in the Barry Odom era. Idaho’s defense presents a major step down in class, compared to what they’ve been facing. And the Vandals own offense, led by senior QB Matt Linehan – a four year starter – is capable of putting TD’s on the board against a dismal Tigers stop unit that has allowed every single opponent they’ve faced this season to get into the 30’s. Expect a shootout! Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-20-17 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | 132-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Take the Phoenix Suns (#720) Pardon my language, but if you missed the Lakers play last night, you missed a real shit-show. Luke Walton didn’t have his team ready coming out of training camp, and it’s a very flawed team to begin with. Last year’s Lakers squad was the single worst defensive team of the DECADE on a points per 100 possessions basis, yet somehow they managed to get worse defensively in the offseason. Lonzo Ball has no chance of staying in front of the Suns; one of three defensively soft, very young ‘one and dones’ from college in the Lakers starting lineup. Let new starting center Brook Lopez tell you about how young LA really is right now: “It’s weird being one of the older guys on the team. That turnaround happened so quickly. A year or two ago I was playing with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce and all of a sudden the next few years I’m playing with 19-, 20-year-old kids. It just flopped so fast.” It wasn’t just bad defense that plagued the Lakers in their opener last night – their bad offense was on full display as well, most notably the 19 turnovers. With a rebuilt roster and a rookie point guard, playing on the second night of back-2-backs, on the road, I’m not expecting any sort of immediate turnaround from LA. The Suns were thoroughly humiliated on opening night, trailing by 25 at halftime on their way to a 48 point home loss to the Blazers. Head coach Earl Watson was “embarrassed”. His quote: “Portland came in here and basically kicked our butts as bad as they could.” Wing Devin Booker following the game: “It's going to be hard for me to sleep tonight.” The Lakers provide Phoenix with the ideal opponent to bounce back STRONG! Take Phoenix. |
|||||||
10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#304) Houston laid an egg at Tulsa last Saturday, losing 45-17 as two TD favorites. Memphis had a +4 turnover margin, and needed every one of those turnovers to win in their three point victory, failing to cover as 3.5 point chalk. But with Memphis sitting at 6-0 SU right now and the Cougars coming off an ass kicking, there’s no surprise that the markets have been moving in favor of the Tigers since the opener. That money is moving in the wrong direction if you take these quotes in mind, taken from the local papers in Houston and Memphis this week. Every quote – literally, every one I found – points towards the Cougars as short home chalk. Houston senior defensive end Nick Thurman: “As soon as we got back home (late Saturday night) we had to bury it and move on. Our whole focus is on Memphis. There's nothing we can do about that. There's now a sense of urgency around here.” Houston junior cornerback Isaiah Johnson: “There's been a lot of talk about how we used to do it in the past. But that's not important right now. It's about the 2017 Cougars. Not the 2015 team. Not the 2016 team. It's about this year. What do we want to leave as our legacy? We still have that chip on our shoulder that we lost a game we weren't suppose to lose. That loss only made us stronger. It also brought us together." Houston senior safety Terrell Williams: "Our season's far from over.” Memphis head coach Jay Norvell knows the dangers of this spot, one week after the Tigers woke up to find themselves in the Top 25 for the first time since 2015. He certainly doesn’t like the scheduling spot off the intense win over Navy: “I'd like to say that when the schedule came out I didn't notice, but I noticed. I noticed how these two games backed up to each other. It's a short week and we know we have to adapt some things to how we prepare, but we've got to go get it." Two weeks ago, Memphis got torched for more than 300 passing yards against UConn. Last week, they were gashed on the ground, but turnovers saved them against Navy. Houston’s not a team that has been plagued with turnovers repeatedly this season, and they’re in revenge for a four point loss at Memphis last year. Look for the Cougs to get that revenge tonight! Take Houston. |
|||||||
10-18-17 | Dodgers +102 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#967) Let me start with a brief excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting the Dodgers in their comfortable Game 3 win at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Dodgers have no business as underdogs tonight facing off against the ice cold Cubs lineup. Last year, on their way to the World Series title, the Cubs got key, clutch hits throughout their playoff run. That hasn’t happened yet in this series, with Chicago notching just 15 hits in the first three games of the series, hitting .160 as a team. In fact, the Cubs have just 20 baserunners for the series, compared to their 32 strikeouts. And these current struggles come on the heels of an NLDS in which the Cubs were held to three runs or less in four of the five games.” “Let’s not forget about this bullpen mismatch either. Given the continued struggles for the Cubs bullpen, a tight game late works much better for the LA side of the equation than the Chicago side of the equation. LA hasn’t lost yet in the postseason, a perfect 6-0 here in the playoffs; an emerging trend worth backing again tonight.” Not much has changed between Game 3 and Game 4 except that the Cubs have a weaker starting pitcher tonight and their hope for yet another series comeback has essentially been squashed, facing a 3-0 series deficit against the best team in baseball. This Dodgers squad is locked in at the plate, dominant out of the bullpen and fully cognizant of the fact that they need to stick a stake in the Cubs heart tonight. Dave Roberts is making every right move, something that Joe Maddon isn’t doing this year. And the starting pitching matchup – like the bullpen matchup and the lineup matchup – works in the Dodgers favor. I know that Alex Wood hasn’t pitched since September. I also know that Wood went 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA this season, the best #4 starter in baseball. LA’s bullpen behind him can carry the load if he falters. That’s not the case for the struggling Cubs pen behind the ineffective Jake Arrieta. Arrieta has only made four starts since the beginning of September and none of them have been pretty. He needed 90 pitches to labor through four innings in the NLDS against the Nationals, walking five batters in a game where he was VERY lucky that the wind was blowing in. The wind is blowing OUT to left center tonight! Expect the Cubs season to end tonight. Take the Dodgers. |
|||||||
10-18-17 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 197.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Dallas – Atlanta OVER (#713-714) Expect a very different pace of play from the previously stodgy Dallas Mavericks this year. From Day 1, Dallas is looking to take advantage of the quickness and speed of rookie point guard Dennis Smith. Owner Marc Cuban, talking about his newest potential star: “Dennis is fast. I mean he’s easily the fastest guy on the team and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the fastest end line to end line in the NBA…..watching him get a rebound and go coast-to-coast, fans are going to be fired up.” Smith: "In this league, I've got to attack first and then make my reads from there. It's tough for defenders to stay in front of me. If I can beat my man and make the defense collapse, I'm smart enough to make the right read out of that." Head coach Rick Carlisle: “We want to push it every single time, even if there's a score. The quicker you get it over half-court, the greater chance you have to make an early vertical attack on the basket.” It takes time for the markets to adjust to teams that radically change their pace of play in the offseason. And with the Hawks defensive rotations in disarray throughout the preseason, we can expect an uptempo affair that flies Over the total with room to spare. Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-18-17 | Hornets v. Pistons -3 | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#708) The Pistons open their new home court tonight with a roster that looks very similar to last year’s. Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris, Jon Leuer, Stanley Johnson and Ish Smith all return with a comfort level in Stan Van Gundy’s systems. The Pistons new pieces, most notably the ultra-intense Avery Bradley and his backup Langston Galloway, appear to fit right in to what Van Gundy is preaching. And it’s certainly worth noting that despite last year’s disappointing campaign, Van Gundy had them ready out of training camp – the Pistons won each of their first five home games by double digit margins. Charlotte, too, was a disappointment last year. Unlike Detroit, head coach Steve Clifford is dealing with a lot of moving parts right now. The Hornets remade their frontcourt in the offseason with the addition of Dwight Howard, a disappointment everywhere he’s been in recent seasons. Their top two wings are both out, with Nicholas Batum injured and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist away from the team dealing with a personal matter. Clifford’s quote is ‘bet-against’ all the way: "We're playing without two starters for this first stretch. We don't have the depth, nor are we as strong to start the games as we will be a month from now. That's always a factor. But it also gives us a chance for these other guys to grow here early in the year." I don’t want ‘growing’ teams at +3 on opening night against a home favorite primed to make a statement at Little Caesars Arena tonight. Take the Pistons. |
|||||||
10-17-17 | Dodgers +105 v. Cubs | 6-1 | Win | 105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#963) The Dodgers have no business as underdogs tonight with Yu Darvish on the mound facing off against the ice cold Cubs lineup. Last year, on their way to the World Series title, the Cubs got key, clutch hits throughout their playoff run. That hasn’t happened yet in this series, with Chicago notching just seven hits in the first two games of the series, hitting .117 as a team. And these current struggles come on the heels of an NLDS in which the Cubs were held to three runs or less in four of the five games. Meanwhile, Yu Darvish has essentially been unhittable down the stretch. In his last four starts, Darvish has an 0.74 ERA, striking out 28 batters while allowing only 11 hits and walks combined. Current Cubs have hit just .195 against Darvish in their careers. And the Dodgers fully rested bullpen behind him is ‘bet-on’ all the way, retiring 15 consecutive batters to close out Game 1 and 12 of 13 batters to close out Game 2. I understand that Kyle Hendricks was dominant in his Game 1 win against the Nats in the Chicago’s first round playoff series, although he did get roughed up in his second start of that series. And I understand that Hendricks was the starter who closed out the Dodgers last year, a dominant 7.1 inning 2 hit, 0 run effort. But this Dodgers lineup is as potent as any in baseball, and Hendricks is no threat to pitch a complete game shutout – he lasted past the seventh only once all year. Let’s not forget about this bullpen mismatch either. Given the continued struggles for the Cubs bullpen, a tight game late works much better for the LA side of the equation than the Chicago side of the equation. LA hasn’t lost yet in the postseason, a perfect 5-0 here in the playoffs; an emerging trend worth backing tonight. Take the Dodgers. |
|||||||
10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#276) To say this is a ‘circled’ game for the Tennessee Titans is something of an understatement. The Titans have lost 11 consecutive games to the Colts, with Indy and Houston dominating the division and Tennessee ranked nearer to Jacksonville in the AFC South, relegated to ‘bottom feeder’ status. All four losses to Indy over the past two seasons have been hotly contested games, decided by a TD or less. And the Titans are coming off poorly played back-2-back losses. First, they got Deshaun Watson’d in Houston, then they followed that up with a dismal offensive showing with Matt Cassel behind center at Miami last Sunday. In 50 dropbacks over six quarters on the highway over the past two weeks, Cassel netted only 132 passing yards (counting the eight sacks he took). Normal starting QB Marcus Mariota is expected back in the starting lineup tonight. So we’ve got a Titans team with an axe to grind against a divisional rival that has owned them in every reason season. And we’ve got a Titans team with a chip on their collective shoulders, looking to wipe away the stink of their subpar showings over the past two weeks. They’ve got the optimal setting to do that – at home, in front of a raucous Monday Night Football crowd. And there’s no question about which of these two squads has the superior team in 2017. Over the course of their last four games, the Titans have faced three elite defenses – the Jaguars, Seahawks and Texans, all ‘top quartile’ units. Now they’ll take a big step down in class against the suspect Colts stop unit, a defense that allowed 46 points in each of their first two road games; ugly losses to the Rams (by 37) and the Seahawks (by 28). It’s surely worth noting that Tennessee beat that same Seattle team rather comfortably here at Nissan Stadium. We all know that Andrew Luck is still hurt, but Jacoby Brissett has filled his big shoes admirably, guiding Indy to a 2-2 record in his four starts. But Brissett is likely to be running for his life tonight, thanks to cluster injuries on the Colts offensive line. With their top three guards all injured, the Colts are expected to start undrafted second year OL Jeremy Vujovich and undrafted rookie Kyle Kalis at the guard spots this evening. That’s bad news against this defensive front! It’s surely worth noting how well the Titans defense played last week despite Cassel’s ineptitude, holding the Dolphins to 12 first downs and 178 yards, giving up just 3.0 yards per play. No surprise here if Dick LeBeau’s stop unit is a very tough nut for the Indy offense to crack this evening, while the Colts defense does not compare favorably to any of the stop units that Tennessee has seen over the past month. Indy has allowed a full 6.0 yards per play this season; tied for 31st in the NFL. Find a -7 (be smart, lay a little extra juice to get the key number, there are plenty of -7’s at -115 or -120 out there as I type this), and expect the Titans exorcize their Colts demons. Take the Titans. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Rams +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Rams (#265) Jacksonville is 3-2 right now and feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout win in Pittsburgh last week. Of course, that win was as easy as it gets for the Jags, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing his career high in interceptions – Blake Bortles attempted a grand total of one pass after halftime of that contest. The previous week, the Jags were outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets two weeks ago, even if you take the Jets two long 70+ yard TD runs out of the mix. This Jags team is capable of winning some games by relying on their playmaking defense coupled with Leonard Fournette’s ability to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. But if Bortles is asked to do anything other than ‘game manage’, he’s a complete disaster, getting worse, not better. It’s not like the Jaguars have enjoyed any sort of reasonable home field advantage in Jacksonville. They lost their only previous home game by three touchdowns to Tennessee. Last year, they lost six times in seven tries here in Jacksonville. My numbers show them with an 9-28 SU mark on this field dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign, a consistent track record of failure. And it’s surely worth noting that in games where the favorite was -2 or higher, the underdog has gone 4-0 ATS in Jaguars games this year; not a team to lay points with! There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game, bad news for a QB like Bortles who makes mistakes under duress. That defense played their best game of the season last week against Seattle; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. The Rams turned the ball over five times last week, their first ‘turnover plagued’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 164 pass attempts for the season, while only taking six sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football. The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Jaguars offense; a full yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco. We’ve seen them win SU on the road at Dallas. While LA is flying East, this is not an early start game. And the Jags homefield edge is as small as any in the NFL. The Rams full season defensive numbers are lying and their offense is the vastly superior unit. Big Ticket: Take the Rams. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins OVER 46.5 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco – Washington OVER (#263-264) Forget any stats that you’ve seen about the San Francisco 49ers defense, at least for this week. Spots don’t get much worse than this one for San Fran. Two weeks ago, San Fran led at Arizona in the closing minutes, but ended up losing in overtime. The defense was on the field for more than 80 snaps and 37 minutes. Last week, the 49ers travelled again, flying east to take on the Colts. Again, the game went into OT. Again, the 49ers defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes and 70 snaps. Now, this exhausted and banged up stop unit has to do it again – a third straight road game, heading back East once again, with an early start kickoff. San Fran gave up 41 on a Thursday Night against the Rams the last time they were tired out, and the Redskins offense is primed to explode coming out of their bye week behind an offensive line that’s as healthy as it’s been since Week 1. With playmaking WR Josh Doctson expected to suit up, a Redskins offense that’s in the top quartile of the NFL – averaging a full six yards per play – is capable of lighting up the scoreboard with big plays here. The season long stats for this San Fran offense stink – that’s why this total is as low as it is. In three of their first four games, the 49ers didn’t score an offensive touchdown. But in two games where the 49ers were able to run the football, they scored a combined 62 points, and Brian Hoyer was able to make some big plays downfield against defenses crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. It’s worth noting that the Redskins won’t have shutdown CB Josh Norman in the lineup this week. And frankly, I’m not sold on the Redskins run defense, especially against a 49ers offense that is likely to play their fair share of uptempo, no huddle football. Expect some fireworks here! Take the Over. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Bears +6.5 v. Ravens | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#261) The numbers don’t lie. In their last 14 tries as favorites of more than a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens are 3-11 ATS. All three of the covers came against the same team – the Cleveland Browns, the absolute worst team in football in recent seasons. Continuing a long term trend under John Harbaugh, the underdog in Ravens games has been profitable to bet blindly once again this year. Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. That’s the real Ravens; not a team with any business in this pointspread range right now. I know they blew out Oakland last week, in large part due to the Raiders own incompetence. Make no mistake about it -- that victory did not make me think that the Ravens have suddenly solved their myriad of problems; a team that has been outgained by 0.6 yards per play this season. The Bears aren’t a pretty team to watch and they’re certainly not a ‘sexy’ squad with a 1-4 record and a short week to prepare off a Monday Night loss. But the effort has been there for Chicago every week, especially on the defensive side of the football. They’re getting key LB Danny Treviathan back in the lineup after his league mandated suspension. And the Bears season long offensive stats are flat out lying now that Mike Glennon has mercifully been benched for a playmaking Mitch Trubisky. Too many points! Take the Bears. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | New Mexico +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New Mexico (#215) The betting markets have no idea how to price Fresno State right now, offering savvy bettors a prime opportunity to cash in on Saturday Night! Fresno presents quite the conundrum for ‘power rating’ based bettors – the wiseguys. The Fresno program fell hard and fast once Derek Carr graduated and moved on to the Oakland Raiders. 11-2 in 2013 with Carr, the Bulldogs went 6-8 in 2014, 3-9 in 2015 and 1-11 last year. The talent level and depth were way down – waaaaaaay down – from where it had been just a few years earlier. Enter Jeff Tedford. The former Cal head coach has a ‘QB guru’ reputation, and the state of the program right now is significantly better than it was last year at this time. And, after ugly ‘step-up’ losses to Alabama and Washington, the Bulldogs responded with back-2-back double digit wins, beating Nevada and San Jose State by double digit margins. But before we get too carried away with the Bulldogs improvement, let’s not forget how far this program had fallen – all the way to the bottom of a ‘not that good’ Mountain West Conference. Nor should we forget who Fresno has beaten this season – the two worst teams in the Mountain West and FCS Incarnate Word. Clearly, the markets are struggling to price this squad correctly, as evidenced by the fact that Fresno is chalk on Saturday Night against a team they should be underdogs against! Fresno’s offense is ‘serviceable’, not explosive. QB Marcus McMaryion doesn’t have a big arm, and his top two receivers – KeeSean Johnson and Da’Mari Scott – average only about 11 yards per reception between them. The team has a grand total of one rushing attempt for longer than 19 yards all season. Fresno is certainly capable of beating the Mountain West bottom feeders this year, but New Mexico is a legitimate step-up for this squad, and the Lobos unique style is primed to give Fresno trouble. When Bob Davie arrived in Albuquerque, he installed a fairly unique option style offense. Now, six years into the system, the Lobos are running it extremely well. In their last game, facing an Air Force team that sees the option every day in practice, the Lobos rolled for 56 points while averaging better than 10 yards per SNAP. Why? Because Davie runs an option with speed on the perimeter—one missed assignment or one bad tackle and someone is off to the races. Lobos QB Lamar Jordan is a playmaker, averaging more than ten yards per pass attempt. SEVEN different backs have a carry of 25 yards or longer. WR’s Chris Davis and Jay Griffin along with TE Delane Hart-Johnson all have big play ability as well. This is a ‘quick strike TD’ team, the type of squad that can suck the life out of an opposing stadium in a hurry with a big play or two. And they’ve certainly shown the ability to win games away from home. New Mexico’s seniors have won in SU fashion on the highway at New Mexico State, UTSA, UNLV, Wyoming, Boise, Hawaii, Utah State and Tulsa. Fresno is not primed to slow down New Mexico’s option. These teams haven’t met since 2014. Tedford didn’t see options at Cal, or in more recent stints with the Tampa Bay Bucs and in the CFL. Defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer came over from the CFL, another guy who is not familiar with or adept at shutting down the option. Tedford cleaned house when he got here – there’s not a single coach on the staff who was here last year, leaving the Bulldogs defense unlikely to get many stops in this one. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take New Mexico. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Purdue v. Wisconsin OVER 50 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Purdue – Wisconsin OVER (#113-114) My clients and I cashed a winner supporting Wisconsin as road chalk against Nebraska last week. This week, however, my attention has turned towards the total; a number that is a good notch or two too low. So, let me start this write-up with an excerpt from last week’s write-up, explaining why the Badgers offense remains an underrated unit at this stage of the campaign, despite another 38 point outburst last week. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “The Badgers have dominated every foe they’ve faced this year. They beat Utah State 59-10, a win that looks even better now than it did at the time. Wisconsin knocked off Florida Atlantic 31-14, and followed that up with a 40-6 win on the road at BYU. Then the Badgers dominated Northwestern for three quarters but fell asleep with a 3 TD lead in the fourth. Seven of their last eight regular season wins have come by 2 TD’s or more; a team that is lighting up the scoreboard. And make no mistake about it – the 2017 Badgers are loaded with veteran talent. Returning QB starter Alex Hornibrook has completed 64% of his throws while averaging just shy of 9.5 yards per pass ATTEMPT! RB Jonathan Taylor is the latest Wisconsin back with NFL upside, averaging 7.9 yards per carry with nine TD’s.” Wisconsin has scored 31+ in every ballgame this year, while averaging more than 40 points per game, and I expect a similar offensive output this week. Paul Chryst got this job because of his offensive acumen – when he was the offensive coordinator here, the Badgers routinely averaged 40 points per game for the full season. The Badgers hung 49 on Purdue last year and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they push around the Boilermakers in the trenches once again this season, leading to some quick strike, big play scores as the defense starts to wear down later in the contest. But there’s ample reason to think that Purdue will be able to put their fair share of points on the scoreboard too. Jeff Brohm got this job because of HIS offensive acumen as an assistant at Louisville and head coach at Western Kentucky. And the Boilermakers have shown immediate and dramatic offensive improvement in Brohm’s first year on the job, hanging 28+ four times in five games, despite David Blough and Elijah Sindelar splitting snaps at QB. Ten different receivers have caught a pass of 20 yards or longer this year, with Brohm’s offense already giving opposing defenses trouble. Expect a handful of quick strike TD’s in this one! Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Oklahoma v. Texas +9 | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#182) There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! Here in Austin, with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel in their lone try as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. And when you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last dozen tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-1. That’s Straight Up! They’re 12-0 ATS, the lone SU loss coming in that aforementioned game earlier this year on the road at USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time! Oklahoma, on the other hand, is NOT worth betting on every single time they’re chalk. Head coach Lincoln Riley lucked into this job after Bob Stoops surprisingly resigned over the summer. And, quite frankly, Riley has struggled – he’s no Tom Herman when it comes to motivating players or ‘X’s and O’s’. This defense just got shredded by the likes of Baylor and Iowa State (with a third string QB), allowing 79 combined points while forcing only one turnover. This is not a good sign moving forward for a ‘D’ that frankly wasn’t very good last year. Oklahoma’s offense is explosive, but the Iowa State coaching staff just gave every other coaching staff in the Big 12 a blueprint on how to beat them. The Cyclones rushed only three while dropping eight back into coverage, frustrating Baker Mayfield repeatedly. Don’t be shocked if the Longhorns take a page from that playbook this week in a game that has all the makings of a tight, competitive contest. Take Texas. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Virginia -3.5 v. North Carolina | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Virginia (#133) North Carolina is as strong a ‘bet-against’ team as you can find in college football this year. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels anyway after they sent their QB Mitch Trubisky to the NFL after his junior season, along with the likes of Elijah Hood and Ryan Switzer – impact offensive playmakers. A home loss to Cal in Week 1 showed that very clearly. And that was BEFORE the injury bug really started to strike. 9 guys who have started a game for the Tar Heels this year are now out for the season, and that doesn’t include a whole host of shorter term injuries and another whole host of guys who got hurt in camp, before the season even started. With a redshirt frosh QB throwing to a receiving corps that has lost their top four guys to injury, playing behind an ineffective offensive line and without any semblance of a running game to help them, the Tar Heels offense is stuck in the mud; producing only 34 points in their last three ballgames. North Carolina’s defense is every bit as injury riddled, if not more. And unlike the offense, that defense was short on talent to begin with! The Tar Heels lost their one true leader on defense; the guy who called the plays in the huddle in Andre Smith. He’s out for the year. Senior strong safety Donnie Miles, the team’s career leader in starts, is hurt as well, as is senior DL Tyler Powell, sophomore safety DJ Ford and several others. The only team that North Carolina has been able to stop all year was Old Dominion… While the Tar Heels are collapsing, the Cavaliers are in a great spot in Bronco Mendenhall’s second season on the job. They’re coming off impressive back-2-back wins, beating Boise on the blue turf in Boise, then knocking off the same Duke team that beat North Carolina by double digits. Senior QB Kurt Benkert has been brilliant since a bad game against Indiana back in Week 2, throwing for 900 yards and 9 TD’s in his last three ballgames. And the vastly improved Cavs defense has held four of their five foes this year to 23 points or less, more than capable of getting a late stop should we need one to preserve the victory. Two teams headed in opposite directions here! Take Virginia. |
|||||||
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#104) There’s a lot to like about the Carolina Panthers right now. A team that went 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) and went to the Super Bowl two years ago is showing signs that they are capable of putting another strong run together here in 2017. It starts with a stop unit in excellent in early season form, holding foes to 4.8 yards per play, the #4 defense in the NFL right now. The Panthers offense came out of the gate looking very sluggish. Cam Newton missed the entire offseason, recovering from surgery, and he looked rusty and out of sync for the first three weeks of the campaign. Those early season stats are significantly impacting this pointspread, even though they are effectively meaningless now. Cam Newton found his stride against New England two weeks ago, finishing with the seventh highest single game QB rating of his career. He did it again last week in Detroit, finishing with his fourth best QB rating of his career. When a former MVP level QB goes 48-62 for 771 yards and 6 TD’s in two games; we can reasonably assume that he’s a ‘bet-on’ guy moving forward. Panthers LB Thomas Davis: “We had a lot of people who were counting him out at the beginning of the season – really because we kind of limited some of the things he was capable of doing. But now you see him going out and running the ball again. His arm strength is back. And he’s putting the ball on the money.” Yes, the Eagles have won three straight since their loss to KC, but those three wins have come against the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals; three teams that all have significant offensive issues. It’s surely worth noting that those squads are a combined 2-11 SU, 2-10-1 ATS in all games not against one another; both wins coming against fellow bottom feeders Indy and San Fran. And make no mistake about it – Philadelphia’s defense is not built to handle high octane passing attacks without their top cover corner Ronald Darby, who is out indefinitely. To make matters worse, their top interior defensive lineman, Fletcher Cox, is very questionable with a strained calf. The team went 1-9 SU without left tackle Lane Johnson in the lineup last year while going 6-0 with him healthy. Johnson will be out this week, dealing with a concussion. The Eagles defense has been ‘cramming’ for their test on Thursday, a short week with travel for a squad dealing with the injury bug. Safety Malcolm Jenkins: “Last year we played the Giants on Thursday night. That's a divisional opponent. You've got years of notes on them. But this is an opponent that is doing so much offensively that you're not necessarily familiar with what you've got to prepare for and cram for. It makes it tough. We definitely have our hands full over the next couple days.” Defensive end Chris Long: “With a tough team like Carolina and the multitude of looks they give you in the run game and the different ways they can beat you, it's a challenge." I don’t expect Philly to be up for that challenge….. Take the Panthers. |
|||||||
10-12-17 | Cubs -105 v. Nationals | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Take the Chicago Cubs (#959) I have no hesitation supporting Kyle Hendricks and the Chicago Cubs in a pick ‘em price range against the Nationals in Game 5 tonight. We’ve seen this show before. Chicago was down 2-1 in LA against the Dodgers last year before they rallied back to win the next three. We saw the Cubs facing elimination against the Indians, facing a 3-1 series deficit before they won the final three games of the World Series, with the final two wins coming on the Indians home field. Meanwhile, the Nationals got eliminated in Game 5 at home last year to the LA Dodgers, going 0-2 in potential closeout contests. They lost both home games while failing to get out of the NLDS in their previous playoff appearance in 2014 and lost a pair of home playoff games (including Game 5) in the first round against St Louis prior to that. Obviously, this year’s teams are different from those from recent seasons. Dusty Baker and Joe Maddon, however, are not. In an elimination game, with every managerial decision magnified, Maddon’s edge over Baker is a significant one. The markets have made a big move towards the Nats today, offering us a chance to back the superior, more confident team in a pick ‘em price range. I understand the move stems from the fact that Baker is likely to use Matt Scherzer out of the bullpen if necessary today. But I also understand that Scherzer coming out of the bullpen on short rest is not the same as Scherzer, rested and ready as the starter. The Nationals were significant money losers at home during the regular season and they’re lucky not to be 0-2 on this field here in the playoffs. That’s a trend worth riding again here…. Take the Cubs. |
|||||||
10-09-17 | Dodgers -110 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Dodgers (#907) My clients and I bet against Zack Greinke last week, at home, in the Diamondbacks ‘play-in’ game against Colorado Yes, Arizona won the game, but it certainly wasn’t because Greinke pitched well! And both Greinke and the D-backs are prime ‘fade’ material once again tonight! Greinke ran out of gas down the stretch, hit hard in each of his final two regular season starts, unable to last past the fourth inning against KC and Miami in those last two outings. Then, against the Rockies, pitching with a 6-0 lead, Greinke again couldn’t get the job done, knocked out of the box after allowing four runs in the fourth. Zack Greinke is coming with an ‘ace’ level reputation right now – hence the cheap price to support the Dodgers tonight – but he’s not pitching at that level (or with that level of confidence) at this late stage of the campaign. Arizona did just about everything right on the offensive side in LA over the weekend. The Dbacks smashed six home runs and went Over their team total in both contests. It didn’t matter; not the way LA is hitting right now. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, talking about their offensive approach right now: “We'll homer when a pitcher makes a mistake. But to spoil pitches and to grind, that's when I think we're at our best. It's that team offense concept. We've got a lot of good players and a lot of good depth. There are so many guys in our lineup that can hurt you. Pass it to the next guy. Have that good at-bat. We can stress the pitcher early, get the pitch count up, get into the 'pen. Putting the ball in play, not punching, taking the walk. We've done that the first two games and we put some runs on the board.” And that, folks, is the optimal strategy for beating Greinke! Greinke’s quote: “They wait for a pitch to hit and that's an ideal way of hitting. If you get it, you hit it as hard as you can. If it's not a pitch to hit, they take it. I mean, it's pretty simple, but it's harder to do than it sounds like." It’s surely worth noting that Greinke was 13-1 at home this year, but the ‘1’ was a loss to these same Dodgers. Behind Greinke, Arizona’s bullpen has been hit hard over the last week, and closer Fernando Rodney cannot be trusted in big game situations against elite lineups. Yu Darvish is ‘bet-on’ all the way, coming off three dominant outings to close out the regular season, allowing just nine hits and one earned run in 19.1 innings of work. The bullpen behind him finished with the best ERA in the National League. And the urgency to close out the series tonight is there, a team still looking to wipe away the stink from their ugly September. Put it all together and this near pick ‘em price range looks a good notch or two (or three!) too cheap! Big Ticket: Take the Dodgers. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -100 | 105 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#474) The Houston Texans looked awful offensively in Week 1 with Tom Savage starting at quarterback. They looked every bit as bad in Week 2, travelling to Cincinnati with rookie QB Deshaun Watson promoted to make his first career start on the road on a short week (Thursday Night Game). The stats from those two games make up half the statistical database for the Texans this season, yet they are completely meaningless when we look forward, not backwards. In two games with normal prep time for their rookie QB, the Houston Texans have covered the spread by 10.5 points at New England and by 38.5 points against Tennessee last week. Both the Patriots and Titans are power rated as playoff teams, not weaklings. In my humble opinion, the betting markets are not valuing Houston correctly at this stage of the campaign; a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word! My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting the Texans last week, as easy as it gets. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up for that game, with numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities: “What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. “I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 7.8 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, made an immediate impact in his first game of the season on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins last week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now.” But the markets continue to show love for Kansas City, currently power rated as the #1 team in the NFL just about everywhere. I understand the Chiefs have looked really good thusfar. But I also understand that the Chiefs aren’t going 16-0 this year; they’re coming off a huge last minute win (and an extremely fortuitous pointspread cover) on Monday Night against the Redskins; and they’re travelling on a short week to face a defense that completely shut them down last year, holding KC to four field goals. Wrong team favored here; and Houston offers legit Big Ticket value on a weekly basis right now...at least until this national TV game. Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -1.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#472) If you didn’t watch the game last Thursday Night and simply looked at the final score, you might think that Green Bay’s early season issues have been fixed. But if you watched the game, you saw what I saw – the Bears completely melting down, handing the Packers cheap TD after cheap TD. When the carnage ended, Chicago had more first downs than Green Bay, more rushing yards AND more passing yards – with Mike Glennon at QB vs. Aaron Rodgers, yet the Packers had an easy 3 TD victory. Of course, the Bears -4 turnover margin was the key factor in the game…. And bettors just saw the Dallas Cowboys get whipped on their home field by the LA Rams. The Rams are getting plenty of respect here in Vegas, but that level of respect hasn’t seeped out into the broader betting community just yet. So, for many people, it looks like the Cowboys second bad loss in three weeks after they got hammered in Denver. All of this has resulted in a short pointspread here, with Cowboys backers asked to lay less than a field goal, at home, in a ‘playoff revenge’ situation. There’s ample reason to expect a Cowboys victory, by margin. Let me start with the anti-Packers piece of the equation. Green Bay has a cluster injury problem on their offensive line. They beat the Bears last week using four guards and a center, including Lucas Patrick, an undrafted rookie out of Duke. This is a problem against the fierce Cowboys pass rush, with DeMarcus Lawrence leading the NFL in sacks. Green Bay doesn’t have a single rush of longer than 13 yards in their first four games, and starting RB Ty Montgomery – the speedster – isn’t expected to suit up this week. The Packers have undergone a youth infusion in their secondary and, quite frankly, their linebacking corps isn’t very good. These are BIG problems going against a hungry, motivated Cowboys squad coming off a loss. Dez Bryant burned the Packers for 132 receiving yards and two TD’s in the playoff loss last January and he’s coming off his first really good game of the new campaign. Zeke Elliott primed for success here against a Packers stop unit not built to stop balanced attacks and power running games. Dak Prescott showed great leadership following the Cowboys first loss, rallying them from behind at Arizona the following week; a ‘bet-on’ QB in this spot. And Green Bay is an overvalued commodity right now, worth fading in this price range without hesitation. Take the Cowboys. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -8 | 30-9 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#458). NOTE: ERROR Correction! This play was originally entered wrong. The correct play is on the STEELERS! Here’s the premise. Pittsburgh came into the season power rated as one of the top Super Bowl contenders; right there with the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, Cowboys and Seahawks. That power rating was probably a bit lofty for the first few weeks – the Steelers offensive starters spent virtually no time on the field together in preseason, with multiple key veterans nursing injuries. That lack of on-field time together hurt Pittsburgh badly in Week 1; a sluggish showing at Cleveland. They faced the Vikings elite defense next, but still won by 17 on this field – their only previous home game in 2017. Then Pittsburgh went to play at Chicago against the Bears stodgy defense and struggled. Last week, against the Ravens quality defense, the offense finally showed signs of breaking out of their funk. Le’Veon Bell got untracked, rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Big Ben spread the ball around – five different receivers caught at least three passes. And Pittsburgh won comfortably, despite not putting up gaudy offensive numbers. As a bettor, my goal is to be proactive, not reactive. There’s nothing systemically wrong with the Steelers offense, despite their disappointing production. Let’s not forget how little time they spent together in training camp. Nor should we forget that Pittsburgh has faced good defenses three weeks in a row. And perhaps most importantly, this is a home field that really matters for the Steelers offense! Dating to the start of the 2014 campaign (no need to go back further, these numbers have been consistent for many years), Ben Roethlisberger has an 85.3 QB rating on the highway, but a 109.5 QB rating at home. He’s averaged more than a yard per pass better at home, and the TD-INT ratios are staggering: 62-20 here at Heinz Field vs. 24-23 on the highway. The Steelers have scored 24+ in 13 of their last 14 on this field. The markets have devalued them at least somewhat because of their sluggish start. After a series of mediocre offensive showings, this team is primed to go for the kill this week! Jacksonville was outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets last week, even if you take the Jets two long TD runs out of the mix. And make no mistake about it – Blake Bortles is getting worse, not better. With the game on the line against the Jets last week, Bortles misfired on pass after pass. He’s lost confidence in himself and his teammates have followed suit. When the Jags can run the football and rely on their defense, they’re certainly capable of playing competitively. But the Steelers defense has been downright nasty all year, a vastly underrated unit that has held foes to just 4.2 yards per play; best in the NFL. And asking Bortles to be decent in a ‘likely to be playing from behind on the road against a tricky, blitzing defense’ situation is not something I’m willing to do. Put it all together and this is a rock solid ‘buy low’ opportunity here for an elite team primed for a breakout game on their home field. Take the Steelers. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Wisconsin -10.5 v. Nebraska | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin (#403) The Badgers have dominated every foe they’ve faced this year. They beat Utah State 59-10, a win that looks even better now than it did at the time. Wisconsin knocked off Florida Atlantic 31-14, and followed that up with a 40-6 win on the road at BYU. Last week, the Badgers dominated Northwestern for three quarters but fell asleep with a 3 TD lead in the fourth quarter, allowing the Wildcats to make a late spread covering run. Lesson learned for Paul Chryst’s squad – I’m not expecting the Badgers to fall asleep with a big lead again this week. That being said, I DO expect the Badgers to build another big lead. Seven of their last eight regular season wins have come by 2 TD’s or more, and the Badgers are 6-1 ATS as road chalk in the Paul Chryst era. And make no mistake about it – the 2017 Badgers are loaded with veteran talent. Prior to the fourth quarter last week, this defense had held all four opponents to 14 points or less. Returning QB starter Alex Hornibrook has completed 67% of his throws while averaging just shy of ten yards per pass ATTEMPT! RB Jonathan Taylor is the latest Wisconsin back with NFL upside, averaging 7.2 yards per carry with seven TD’s. After facing the Big 10’s two weakest offenses (Rutgers and Illinois) in the last two weeks, the Cornhuskers defense is primed to fare quite so well as they step up in class. Let’s not forget how bad this defense looked against the likes of Oregon and Arkansas State – two decent offenses -- earlier in the season. No surprise here if Wisconsin puts 5 TD’s or more on the scoreboard Saturday Night. Nebraska’s offense is NOT primed to trade points with anyone this year, not with Tulane transfer Tanner Lee at quarterback. Lee has completed under 55% of his throws, averaging just 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Even worse, he leads all of college football with nine interceptions already. The Huskers aren’t recruiting top line skill position talent in the Mike Riley era, not an offense loaded with playmakers. So when the Badgers take a lead here, the Huskers will be hard pressed to play from behind, the far more likely of these two squads to make a handful of ugly, game changing mistakes. There’s a class difference between these two programs these days, a difference that’s not fully reflected in this pointspread. Take Wisconsin. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Michigan State v. Michigan OVER 40 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan – Michigan State OVER (#349-350) The first two matchups between Jim Harbaugh and Mark Dantonio have flown OVER the total with room to spare, with the losing team getting to 23 points in both meetings. Like this game, those contests were totaled in the 40’s. Michigan’s defense is strong, but it’s not as dominant as the D that allowed just 14 points per game last year and 16 points per game in 2015 – not with only one starter back on that side of the football. Michigan State has a solid defense, but not elite; a long, long way down from the vintage Dantonio defenses from 2012 and 2013, both of which allowed 16 points per game or less. Sparty allowed 27 points per game last year and the only strong offense they’ve faced this year – Notre Dame – hung 38 on them. Then there’s the Wolverines QB change, with John O’Korn taking over for the injured Wilton Speight as the starter. Speight is a dink and dunker, generally settling for the high percentage throw. O’Korn takes shots downfield, regularly. He’ll throw more interceptions than Speight, but he’ll also give his playmakers a chance to get the ball in space more than Speight does. Compared to Speight, O’Korn is a dead nuts Over quarterback! O’Korn was brilliant in relief of Speight on the road at Purdue, and he’s had the full bye week to get his timing down with the other offensive starters. No shock here if the Wolverines approach or exceed this total all by themselves against a Spartans defense that flat out isn’t as talented as they were a few years back, playing in their first road game of the season. These quotes tell the story of a team very comfortable with the change at quarterback. Coach Harbaugh: "John's done a fantastic job, I think, ever since he got here. In every role he's been in, he's acquitted himself very well. Including coming off the bench leading our team to a victory. I think that speaks volumes." Michigan Senior Left Tackle Mason Cole: "Things are fine. With John moving into quarterback, it's effortless. We knew the talent John had and we knew he'd get the job done if he had to go in. And he has." The Spartans offense reeks of an Over in this matchup as well. Michigan State can’t run the football; not a dominant, physical team in the trenches this season. That leaves Sparty one choice here – they’ve got to throw the football, exactly what Over bettors covet. QB Brian Lewerke has been rock solid in early season play with an 8-2 TD-INT ratio and nearly 1000 passing yards. The markets have given us one of the lowest totals on the college football betting board to work with here, and the change from Speight to O’Korn completely changes the dynamics and the expected gameflow. Flat out – this is a mispriced total, worthy of a ‘step-up’ wager. Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | SMU +7 v. Houston | 22-35 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
Take SMU (#399) When Chad Morris got the SMU job, I expected success, much like June Jones had success here (for a while) before Morris arrived. Dabo Swinney is getting all the love, but Morris was every bit the architect of that Clemson ascendency over the past half-decade as Swinney was; the guy who designed the offense, called the plays and recruited the likes of Tajh Boyd and Deshaun Watson. He’s a VERY bright offensive football coach. SMU was a disaster when he arrived – June Jones did not leave the cupboard full. The Mustangs went just 2-10 in his first year on the job. Last year, SMU showed signs; improving by three wins while covering the pointspread at a 67% clip for the season. This year, SMU has clearly taken the next step in their progression as evidenced by their perfect 5-0 ATS mark, including a surprisingly competitive game on the road at TCU. It’s surely worth noting how they hung 36 points on that Horned Frogs defense – big plays galore, as five different receivers caught a pass of 20+ yards. SMU is more than capable of doing the same thing here against a Cougars squad that hasn’t regained their mojo following the departures of all-everything QB Greg Ward and head coach Tom Herman. Mustangs QB Ben Hicks has a 14-3 TD-INT ratio. Their top three backs combine for well over 5.5 yards per carry. And with Trey Quinn, James Proche and Courtland Sutton catching passes downfield; we can expect a handful of big play TD’s from the Mustangs in this one. Let’s not forget how SMU hung 38 on this team in an outright upset victory last year -- one big play after the next. Houston’s offense has no such explosiveness. The Cougs have been held to 24 points or less against every opponent not named ‘Rice’ this season; unable to sustain long TD drives or generate many big play, quick strike TD’s. First year, first time head coach Major Applewhite hired the youngest offensive coordinator in college football, and that lack of experience is showing. The Cougs have done the QB shuffle, benching Kyle Allen for Kyle Postma. The running game has been sluggish; the passing game has lacked a downfield element, with their top two WR’s averaging just 12.1 and 9.4 yards per reception. It’s surely worth noting that Houston’s best defensive player -- disruptive tackle Ed Oliver -- is dealing with a knee injury, very questionable for Saturday. And it’s also worth noting that SMU covered the spread by 44 points when these teams met last year. I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they win this game in outright fashion again! Take SMU. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU OVER 66 | 24-31 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia – TCU OVER (#387-388) West Virginia is not likely to stop TCU’s offense very often. The Mountaineers have shown real defensive vulnerability in early season play, allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry so far this season, despite the fact that they’ve played Kansas, Delaware State and East Carolina in their last three ballgames. The Kansas game is particularly troubling, as the hapless Jayhawks went for 34 points and 567 yards vs. Dana Holgorsen’s stop unit, with 397 rushing yards in that contest. The Horned Frogs offense is no joke. TCU has hung 44+ in all three games not against an SEC defense. Senior QB Kenny Hill – a guy with enough talent to earn starts at Texas A&M when he was a freshman – has shown dramatic improvement from last year. His completion percentage is up from 61% to 73%; his yards per pass up from 7.3 last year to 8.2 this season. TCU’s veteran offensive line is blowing holes open for their running backs Darius Anderson and Kyle Hicks (back from injury this week). This is a dynamic, balanced attack; the best offense that the Mountaineers have seen all season. And TCU isn’t likely to step off the gas pedal in this one, not in a legitimate ‘revenge’ game for an ugly 24 point loss in Morgantown last October. But West Virginia isn’t going to go down quietly! The Mountaineers, like TCU, are coming off a bye, and Holgorsen’s offensive track record with extra time to prepare is nothing short of outstanding. Florida transfer Will Grier has lived up to his hype, throwing for 9.5 yards per pass attempt with 13 TD’s already! RB’s Justin Crawford and Kennedy McKoy have averaged better than seven yards per carry between them. TCU has shown vulnerability to big play passing attacks as we saw against SMU. No surprise here if both of these offenses march up and down the field in a game that has all the makings of a true touchdown-fest, flying Over the total. Take the OVER. |
|||||||
10-05-17 | Red Sox v. Astros -117 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#936) I understand how good Chris Sale was this year, and so do the betting markets. Sale was priced at -150 or higher in 30 or his 32 starts. He was in a near pick’ em price range only twice. And this will be the first time Sale has been an underdog all season….deservedly so! In Sale’s first 24 starts this season, he went 14-4 with a 2.51 ERA. Over the final quartile of the campaign, in his last eight starts, Sale went 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA, allowing home runs in bunches. This isn’t new or different from a veteran hurler with a long track record of wearing down late in the season, with a September/October lifetime ERA more than a full run higher than his numbers in May, June or July. Sale was hit hard five times in those last eight trips to the hill, and he’s facing an Astros lineup that mashes lefties, #2 in OPS against southpaws this season. That lineup was on fire for an extended stretch of September, and it was good enough to carry the Astros to three wins in four games against the Red Sox at Fenway last weekend. Justin Verlander is a proven postseason performer, with 16 career playoff starts and a 3.39 ERA to show for it. And Verlander has been nothing short of brilliant down the stretch: a 1.95 ERA in 15 starts since the All Star Break and a 1.06 ERA in his five starts with the Astros. It’s surely worth noting that the Astros are 5-0 in those starts. And it’s also worth noting that Verlander has faced Boston twice already this year, allowing just three earned runs in 12 innings of work. This is a cheap price to lay, even with Chris Sale on the hill for Boston. Take the Astros. |
|||||||
10-04-17 | Rockies +164 v. Diamondbacks | 8-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#933) My clients and I cashed in backing Jon Gray in his last start in Arizona against the D-backs in September. We cashed in the previous night as well, betting AGAINST Zack Greinke at home, despite his gaudy home record. And there’s ample reason to believe that the Rockies are ‘live’ underdogs again tonight with Gray matched up against Greinke this evening. Zack Greinke ran out of gas down the stretch, hit hard in each of his final two starts before getting shut down. His track record against Colorado is mediocre, with Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story and Jonathan Lucroy all enjoying success against Greinke. Arizona’s biggest bat, MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt comes into the postseason in the midst of an 0-17 slump while still dealing with the aftereffects of late season elbow trouble. And if you trust Fernando Rodney to close out a playoff game without trouble…well, let’s just say that you’re more confident in the Arizona bullpen than I am. Jon Gray was as good as any starter in MLB down the stretch. Over his last five starts, Gray went 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA, striking out 33 batters while allowing only 28 hits and walks combined. Gray has allowed three runs or less in 13 consecutive outings since allowing four runs in his first start back from the All Star Break. Gray’s advanced metrics show that he’s a legitimately undervalued commodity; an emerging young ace primed to shine on the national stage tonight. Take the Rockies. |
|||||||
10-01-17 | 49ers +7 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#273) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: ‘Arizona has no business laying a TD to anybody right now’. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up recommending a bet against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football against Dallas, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “I can understand the wiseguy rationale supporting Arizona here, but I don’t agree with it one iota. Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 104.6 in 2015. Last year, it declined to 87.2. Through three games here in 2017, Palmer has a QB rating of 76.1, despite facing the Lions and Colts, who finished ranked #32 and #28 against the pass last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics, and a Cowboys team minus three starters in the secondary. “Palmer’s struggles are likely to continue; an aging QB at the tail end of his career. Star RB David Johnson is out, and the team averaged only 3.3 yards per carry without him against Indy and only 2.3 yards per rush against Dallas; getting very little from the running game. The Cards offensive line is banged up, with DJ Humprhies and Alex Boone out while Mike Iupati is questionable to suit up. Their receiving corps is a mess, with John Brown likely to miss, Jermaine Gresham and JJ Nelson very questionable and Jaron Brown not 100% either, dealing with a knee injury.” The 49ers won two games last year. Yet a better Arizona team than this one never sniffed a pointspread cover as home favorites against San Fran, winning 23-20. That’s fairly typical for Arizona, now sitting at 6-12 ATS at home since the start of the 2015 campaign; in large part due to a defense that is struggling to get stops. This team can’t be laying TD’s right now, plain and simple. The 49ers offense showed real signs of life last week against the Rams; the first time this season they’ve shown any comfort level with Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes. Their defense fared well twice in three games, the lone exception coming on a very short week. This time around, the Niners have the long week with extra prep time (having played Thursday Night), while the Cardinals are off a short week, having played on Monday Night. That prep edge matters in spread ranges like this one! Take the 49ers. |
|||||||
10-01-17 | Giants v. Bucs OVER 44 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 95 h 39 m | Show | |
Take New York Giants – Tampa Bay OVER (#269-270) Case Keenum has been a mid-level NFL backup QB for the last five years. In 27 NFL games at QB, with more than 800 career passing attempts, Keenum went into the game against the Bucs last week with a career QB rating just below 80. Facing Tampa’s banged up defense, Keenum looked like a pro bowler: 369 passing yards on 11.1 per attempts, 3 TD’s without an INT and a QB rating of 142.1 for the game. That, folks, is Tampa Bay’s defense right now. I’m expecting Eli Manning to have a banner afternoon. The Bucs stop unit could be confused with a MASH unit this week. DT Chris Baker is dealing with a nasty bout of the flu. CB Brent Grimes has a bad shoulder, although he’s back at practice. LB Kwon Alexander is out with a hamstring injury. DT Gerald McCoy has a bum ankle. DE Noah Spence is playing with a dislocated shoulder. LB Lavonte David turned his ankle last week, unlikely to suit up on Sunday. DE Jacquies Smith has been out since preseason. Safety TJ Ward is dealing with an injured hip. Defensive coordinator Mike Smith: “Unfortunately, we’ve got some guys that are down, but nobody is going to feel sorry for us -- that’s for sure.” Gerald McCoy knows what’s coming on Sunday against the Giants offense, which broke out of their doldrums with a 24 point fourth quarter at Philly last week: "They change the tempo up. We recognize that, not only because of what they did to Philly but because of what Minnesota did to us. If you notice, a lot of the plays they got were from catching us off guard, coming up to the line and making plays. With a tempo like that, we have to be ready for a lot of short passes, the ball getting out quick. If you notice, they gave up eight sacks the first two weeks and none last week due to how fast the ball was getting out. We've gotta be ready." The Giants defense was completely gassed by the fourth quarter at Philly last week; only the field for nearly 80 snaps in the heat. This stop unit is not fresh – the G-Men have been losing the time of possession battle on a weekly basis – and they’ll be tested by the explosive Bucs offense in the heat and humidity of late afternoon in Tampa Bay. Look for the football to be flying around and both defenses to struggle in what has all the makings of a high octane shootout. Take the Over. |
|||||||
10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons -7.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#268) This game has all the makings of a mismatch for one reason and one reason only. The Falcons offense is elite. The Bills offense is bottom tier. It’s hard for this bettor to picture the Bills defense shutting Atlanta down, and it’s just as hard for me to picture the Bills offense trading points with the Falcons for four full quarters. The results don’t lie. At home, the Falcons have scored 34, 44, 36, 38, 41, 28, 39, 33, 30 and 48 points in their last ten games at Mercedes Benz Stadium, playoffs included. They hung 30 on the road last week in Detroit, despite a three interception showing from Matt Ryan (two of the INT’s bounced off his receivers hands, including one in the red zone that took a scoring opportunity away). It’s surely worth noting that the Falcons SU win with a -3 turnover margin was only the 4th time a team has accomplished that since 2011, with -3 turnover teams now 4-124 SU during that span. Coming off a turnover filled effort like that, returning home to a field where their offensive comfort level is second to none, we can expect another 30+ point performance from Matt Ryan and company here – it’s what they do. So can the Bills hope to trade points with Atlanta? I seriously doubt it! Buffalo hung 26 points against Denver last week, but there was no explosiveness in this offense – they averaged only 4.3 yards per play. Through three games, they’re averaging only 4.6 yards per play, and they were held to a single field goal in their lone road game this season. Tyrod Taylor has shown precious little chemistry with his rebuilt receiving corps – he’s only completed 17 passes to his WR’s in three games! Shady McCoy isn’t even averaging three yards per carry. Bottom line: one team can be expected to score TD’s, the other one cannot. And with Buffalo a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ off their upset win against the Broncos while Atlanta was not amused by their turnover filled near upset at Detroit, the spot reeks of a blowout for the home favorite on Sunday. Take the Falcons. |
|||||||
10-01-17 | Titans v. Texans +1.5 | Top | 14-57 | Win | 100 | 92 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#260) What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 8.3 yards per carry on 15 rushing attempts through 2 ½ games. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, is back at practice and could suit up on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins this week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England last Sunday is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now. Tennessee has one defensive weakness, but it’s a doozy. The Titans are not defending downfield throws very well at all. We saw this defense get picked apart by David Carr and the Raiders in their opener. We saw them get picked apart again last week, as Russell Wilson – with a bottom tier offensive line protecting him and a receiving corps that hadn’t done diddly squat in the first two games – looked like a pro bowler, throwing for 373 yards and four TD’s without an interception while taking only one sack. It’s surely worth noting that this defense has created only three turnovers in three games. No surprise here if the Texans offense lights up the scoreboard again this week. Marcus Mariota has only faced Romeo Crennel’s defense once before and it wasn’t pretty. Crennel’s schemes gave Mariota fits, as he finished just 13-29 without a TD; one of his five worst games as a pro based on QBR ratings. The Titans offense is a notch or two overrated this week after piling it on against a gassed Seahawks defense in the heat last week, putting up stats that were ‘weather and situational’ related more than any other factor. And it’s surely worth noting the Titans propensity for settling for field goals, with only a 40% TD conversion rate in the red zone. That’s not what I’m looking for out of my road favorites. Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
|||||||
09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV OVER 65 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take UNLV – San Jose State OVER (#173-174) San Jose’s defense is as bad as it gets at the FBS level. Over the last three weeks, the Spartans have given up 56, 54 and 61 points. The defense was just on the field for more than 100 snaps against Utah State; nearly 40 minutes of possession time for the Aggies. Utah ran 85 plays against them the previous week, Texas more than 90 the week before, and both teams had the Spartans defense on the field for 35+ minutes. This will be San Jose’s sixth straight game, without a bye. They’re the only team in the COUNTRY to play each of the first six weeks of the season, including multiple games against physical, Power 5 Conference foes (I didn’t even mention USF). A defense that lacked size, speed, experience and talent coming into the season is now a true bottom tier unit. UNLV’s offensive strength is their passing game – Armani Rogers can chuck the football around and the Rebels have playmakers on the outside, most notably Devonte Boyd. Head coach Tony Sanchez has shown a penchant for going for the jugular when given the opportunity, and the Rebels have lost back-2-back heartbreakers against the Spartans in the last two seasons. I expect UNLV to take no prisoners on the offensive end this week. They could approach this total all by themselves. But UNLV’s defense is not pretty to watch; a bottom tier unit. San Jose’s new head coach, Brent Brennan, comes from the Art Briles coaching tree at Baylor – they’re playing with pace; uptempo football. That failed miserably against the likes of Utah, USF and Texas. Against a defense like UNLV’s – a major step down in class, even compared to the Utah State D they saw last week – look for the Spartans to get their fair share, helping this game fly Over the total. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
|||||||
09-30-17 | Ole Miss +28 v. Alabama | 3-66 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Mississippi (#197) I understand that Alabama looked like the greatest team in college football history last week in their dominating 59-0 victory at Vanderbilt. I understand that if things go wrong for Ole Miss here, the Tide could have this spread covered by halftime. But this pointspread is waaaaaaay out of whack with recent series history. It’s out of whack with the Rebels overall talent level. It’s out of whack with Mississippi’s results in recent seasons, a squad with only one loss by more than four touchdowns since 2014 – last year’s season finale when Mississippi State ran it up on the Rebels at the tail end of a disastrous season. This pointspread is the definition of ‘value’ and I have little hesitation recommending a wager on Ole Miss at this number. Last year’s game was 48-43. The year before, it was 43-37. The year before that, it was 23-17. Before that, 25-0. Before that, 33-14. On the field, we haven’t seen a four TD separation at any point. While Ole Miss isn’t in great shape with Matt Luke taking over the program following the Hugh Freeze scandal, the Rebels are in a solid situational spot coming off a bye week. They’re also transitioning roles, after being favored in each of their first three games. Their loss at Cal was in a tough spot, late at night, and the Bears have certainly shown well for themselves. Yet the markets viewed that loss as a ‘crash’ for Ole Miss, which, along with Alabama’s blowout last week, is why this line is as high as it is. Which is too high! Shea Patterson was the #2 QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, and the skill position talent surrounding him is eye popping. This team can spread the field and chuck the football around – exactly the type of offense that Alabama has struggled to defend in recent seasons. We saw the likes of Colorado State come into Tuscaloosa and hang 23 points on the Tide, gaining close to 400 yards of offense in the process. ‘Bama is already 0-2 ATS in this spread range at home; an emerging streak worth riding here. Take Ole Miss. |
|||||||
09-30-17 | Baylor v. Kansas State -16.5 | 20-33 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Kansas State (#140) Here’s what Bill Snyder has done off a bye week over the last five years. Last year, the Wildcats beat Florida Atlantic 63-7 as 24 point chalk, and beat Baylor 42-21 as 2.5 point underdogs. In 2015, Kansas State covered as a dog at Oklahoma State and at Baylor off a bye. In 2014, another 2-0 ATS mark, including an outright upset over Oklahoma. 2013? You guessed it, 2-0 ATS, including a 35-12 win over West Virginia as 13 point favorites. Plain and simple: that’s 10-0 ATS in ten tries off a regular season bye over the last five years. Yep, Bill Snyder is ‘bet-on’ all the way in this role, especially with the Wildcats going into the bye off a bad loss at Vandy. Snyder tends to be a good bully, and Baylor is a team that is apt for bullying! Baylor was a program that was flirting with Top 5 status in the Art Briles era; huge moneymakers for their supporters in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 as the program was ascending. Then the Briles era ended under a string of ugly allegations, a bunch of guys transferred out of town and the Bears started losing. They closed out 2016 on an 0-6 skid, and they’ve opened up 2017 by going 0-4 SU and ATS, including SU losses to Liberty and Texas San Antonio. First year head coach Matt Rhule is trying to implement a culture change, so when he talks about getting out physical-ed in the trenches by the likes of the UTSA Roadrunners, it stands out to this bettor! And when a program goes from Top 5 to bottom feeder in a very short span, the markets struggle to keep up with the decline. Last week, Baylor made a bunch of big plays and looked competitive against mighty Oklahoma. For the second straight week, the Bears caught two TD passes of 70+ yards, making a struggling offense look better than it really is. Bill Snyder is not going to get caught with his pants down defensively and give up a bunch of deep balls, and that’s Baylor’s primary way of scoring right now! QB Zack Smith was awful in his first road start, completing only 12 of 34 passes at Duke. And Baylor just lost their best receiver after Chris Pratt suffered a season ending knee injury; an impact injury – he had five TD catches and a 25.1 ypc average through their first four games. Expect it to get ugly for the still overvalued road dog here. Take Kansas State. |
|||||||
09-30-17 | Rice v. Pittsburgh -20 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 67 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#116) Know this: Rice stinks. Any decent Power 5 Conference school that comes in with something to prove against the Owls is likely to have their way with them. David Bailiff has fought the good fight, but in his 11th year on the job, coming off a 3-9 season with another one right here on the horizon, the Owls are fodder for a team like Pitt on Saturday – slower, smaller and more concerned about their home game against Army next week then they are about this trip to Pittsburgh. The only game this year in which the Owls have scored more than seven points came against UTEP; a squad that just might be the single worst team out of 130 FBS squads. Bailiff doesn’t sound like he’s reeking with confidence following Rice’s latest loss, at home against Florida International: “We had execution errors up front. We had execution errors with the running backs; and receivers who were supposed to run a route 10 but instead ran it 12 yards. Last week everybody took turns making a mistake. This play it might be the center, the next it was the tackle, the next play it was a route. It can’t be jazz; everybody has to be in symphony.” Pitt has suffered three straight losses, but there’s no shame in any of them. Penn State and Oklahoma State are both legit Top 10 squads and Georgia Tech is a win or two away from being in the Top 25 themselves. But the Panthers aren’t focused on how good their opponents were. They’re focused on bringing their ‘A’ game here, in a major ‘step down in class’ game. Here’s a great quote Junior Offensive Tackle Brian O’Neill: “I haven't seen the GPS numbers of the monitors (that measure players' activity levels), but we were going in practice. There's definitely a fire lit in all of us. It's unfortunate it took a couple games to figure that out, but I think we're heading in the right direction, had a fresh start, clean slate (Tuesday) and really got after it.” More O’Neill, after watching tape of Pitt from last year: “We had a little bit more of an attitude then, a nasty streak. We were a little hungrier. Just something that jumps out on tape. Obviously, X's and O's are a little different, but you want to play with a little edge. Not that we lost it, but we focused on it a little more. Who cares if we had success before? You have to take it right now.” Watch for the Panthers to take some shots downfield this week, whether it’s Max Browne or Ben DiNucci at QB, and watch for them to bully Rice at the line of scrimmage. Expect a blowout. Take Pitt |
|||||||
09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State +6.5 | 17-7 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#104) Texas isn’t ready to lay a number like this on the highway, and Iowa State is coming to play. The Longhorns are dealing with injury issues along their offensive front, with a trio of linemen and a pair of tight ends not expected to play here. Head coach Tom Herman, talking about the impact of the injured upperclassmen: “We’ve got to figure out ways to do things that they’re able to do and not ask them to do too much because they’re not Connor Williams and they’re not Andrew Beck, not right now.” As a result of the injury barrage, the Longhorns are expected to start six freshmen or sophomores – not a ‘let’s lay a TD with ‘em on the road at night in Ames’ type of squad. And oh, by the way, Herman hasn’t even settled on a QB yet, with Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger both in the mix. Iowa State was a ‘hard luck’ team in Matt Campbell’s first season on the job, losing four games by a TD or less. They showed us this year that they might be a hard luck team again, blowing a late lead to Iowa and losing by a FG in OT. A hard luck loss should be fine in this pointspread range –but the quotes coming out of Ames after three straight games where the offense scored 40+ indicate that the Cyclones seem to think they can win. QB Jacob Park: “We’ve got some good leaders on the line, and one of the best (offensive) line coaches in the country. I really proud of those guys — and I’m happy to have them in front of me.” Coach Campbell, talking about showcasing his program on ESPN: “The country gets to see what we all know. The country gets an inward look at what Iowa State is about.” Iowa State got healthier on the bye week. Star safety Kamari Cotton-Moya should be back from an elbow injury. Starting cornerback D’Andre Payne has returned to practice following a hamstring injury. And and defensive tackle Jamahl Johnson could suit up as well. Campbell on Johnson: “He’s a guy we’re really counting on and was playing at a really high rate for us.” And it’s surely worth noting that the Longhorns don’t have a road win by more than a single score on their resume since 2014. You might want to take a taste of the moneyline here….. Take Iowa State. |
|||||||
09-27-17 | Cubs -106 v. Cardinals | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Take the Chicago Cubs (#911) Here’s the quote from Cubs manager Joe Maddon following Chicago’s blowout win in St Louis on Monday: “We're definitely arriving at the same mental level we've had the last two seasons. The guys have been there, done that. They know what it's about.” That’s a pretty strong ‘bet-on’ quote, in this bettor’s opinion. The Cubs trailed by four runs after the second inning last night following a rough outing from Jake Arrieta, and were down by five heading into the eighth. They rallied back, cutting the lead to one, with the tying and go-ahead runs on base before a Javier Baez strikeout ended their night. Maddon, after the game, once again told us that he’s got a ‘bet-on’ team right now: “I loved the comeback. I loved the energy. We continued to battle all the way through ... there were a lot of positives." Chicago’s lineup is clicking on all cylinders right now, bad news for Cardinals starter Michael Wacha. Chicago has pounded out 93 runs during an 11-3 hot streak over the past two weeks, averaging more than 6.5 runs per game during that span. Wacha has a terrible track record against Chicago, with current Cubs hitting .317 against him with a .991 OPS in a decent sample size of 139 at bats. Wacha has been hit hard in all three previous starts against Chicago this year, with a 7.88 ERA, and the Cards went 0-3 in those ballgames. John Lackey loves pitching in St Louis: 13-4 with a 2.10 ERA in 25 career starts at Busch Stadium. Current Cardinals are hitting just .221 against him with a .597 OPS. The Cubs are 3-0 in his starts against St Louis this year. And there’s no comparison between the two bullpens behind the starters tonight, with Chicago having a clear edge. Throw in the fact that Cards catcher Yadier Molina is expected to sit tonight and the case for Chicago in this pick ‘em price range is perfectly clear. Take the Cubs. |
|||||||
09-26-17 | Mariners v. A's +119 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Oakland (#978) Seattle was a Wild Card contender for most of the season. Oakland was not. That’s about the only reason I can see why the markets have tilted towards the Mariners as road chalk this evening. Given the current form of the two starters and the current form of the two lineups, Seattle has no business being favored in this ballgame. The betting markets went nuts for James Paxton in June, when he finally started living up to his enormous potential, putting together an impressive streak. At one point, Paxton had eight straight quality starts, striking out 62 batters in 52 innings while allowing only 33 hits during that entire span. Seattle went 7-1 in that eight start stretch and Paxton took wiseguy money in every one of those games. That was then; this is now. Paxton went on the DL in mid-August and hasn’t looked right in two starts since his return, lasting a COMBINED total of five innings in those two games. Seattle’s bullpen behind him leads the majors in blown saves. The Mariners are slumping down the stretch, just 2-8 in their last ten ballgames, even after a win last night. Their lineup is cold, held to two runs or less in half of their last ten games. This is not a ‘bet-on’ team or a ‘bet-on’ hurler by any stretch of the imagination. The A’s are a last place squad, true. But Oakland, very quietly, waaaaaaaay under-the-radar, is 14-4 in their last 18 ballgames. Their lineup has been clicking, their bullpen outstanding. And tonight’s starter, nasty young lefty Daniel Mengden, has pitched like an ace since his September callup: three starts, three wins for Oakland; while allowing only three runs and 14 hits in 22 innings of work. Momentum and matchups both work for the ‘live’ home dog here! Take the A’s. |
|||||||
09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#489) Wiseguys enjoyed a HUGE weekend in the NFL, while recreational bettors got burned repeatedly, with one ‘public’ side after the next going down in flames on Sunday. Expect that to change on Monday Night, with the sharp $$ pushing the line down to Dallas -2.5 at many books as I write this. The wiseguys are betting Arizona for two reasons tonight. First, they like the spot for the Cardinals. Arizona is returning home for the first time after playing on the road in Weeks 3 & 4 of the preseason, then again in the first two weeks of the regular season. Secondly, the sharps are clearly concerned with the injuries to the Cowboys secondary with both Nolan Carroll and Chidobe Awuzie ruled out this evening. I can understand the wiseguy rationale here, but I don’t agree with it one iota. Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 104.6 in 2015. Last year, it declined to 87.2. Through two games here in 2017, Palmer has a QB rating of 65.5, despite facing the Lions and Colts, who finished ranked #32 and #28 against the pass last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics. Palmer’s struggles are likely to continue this evening, an aging QB at the tail end of his career. Star RB David Johnson is out, and the team averaged only 3.3 yards per carry without him in Indy last week, getting very little from the running game. The Cards offensive line is banged up, with DJ Humprhies expected to miss and Mike Iupati questionable to suit up. Their receiving corps is a mess, with John Brown expected to miss, Jermaine Gresham and JJ Nelson very questionable and Jaron Brown not 100% either, dealing with a knee injury. For what it’s worth, it sure looks as if Larry Fitzgerald has finally lost a step. Even with the Cowboys dinged up secondary, Arizona’s offense is not primed to march up and down the field. The Cowboys were road darlings last year, opening up the season with a 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS mark on the highway, including SU wins in Pittsburgh and Green Bay. This team can handle the intensity of playing in Arizona on a Monday Night. They’re coming off the first true blowout loss of the Dak Prescott/Zeke Elliott era, and based on everything I’ve read, this is a hungry, angry team with something to prove to a national TV audience tonight. Prescott: “I think we just didn’t play our game and we didn’t execute the way that we should or we normally do….I know I’ll get better from it, I know this team will get better from it and it’ll be a learning experience.” Expect the Cowboys to show that they’ve learned their lesson with a road win tonight. Take the Cowboys. |
|||||||
09-24-17 | Bengals +9 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#485) The Packers offense didn’t really work in Week 1 against Seattle. They were shut out in the first half, and one of their two second half TD’s came on a six yard ‘drive’ following a fumble. The Packers offense didn’t really work in Week 2 against Atlanta either. In a ‘shootout’ type of game, the Packers were still sitting on 10 in the fourth quarter, and by then it was garbage time of a blowout loss. Aaron Rodgers has a QBR of just 54.7 through two games, worst of his career if extrapolated to the full season. RB Ty Montgomery, despite his blazing speed, is averaging 3.1 yards per carry with a long rush of eight yards on his 29 attempts. Top WR Jordy Nelson is banged up already, dealing with a quad injury. WR Randall Cobb is banged up too, with a bum shoulder. But perhaps most important injuries of all are on the offensive line, where Jahri Evans and Jason Spriggs are the latest to go down, on the heels of injuries to both starting tackles – Brian Bulaga and David Bahktiari. Yes, that’s three starters and the top backup tackle all dealing with injuries for Green Bay this week. On Monday morning, the headlines will talk about Aaron Rodgers, but the reality is that his OL and his receiving corps is a litany of walking wounded. This is NOT a team primed to win games by big margins right now. Say what you want about the Bengals offense (I’ll say plenty in a moment), but the Bengals defense continues to be an elite unit. Cinci has a red zone touchdown percentage of zero and their offense has turned the ball over an NFL high six times; yet the D has hung tough despite some very adverse circumstances. This is not a defense primed to allow TD’s in bunches against an opponent with significant offensive line issues. And Cinci’s offense has wildly underachieved early. A ‘near player mutiny’ sent former coordinator Ken Zampese to the ranks of the unemployed, replaced by veteran coach Bill Lazor. They’ve had extra time to get ready for Green Bay and install Lazor’s tweaks, off since last Friday. It’s not like the Bengals don’t have offensive talent, and even in the midst of their 2016 debacle, Cinci didn’t suffer any of their last five losses by more than a touchdown. Expect Cinci to hang tough for the full sixty minutes. Take the Bengals. |
|||||||
09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 45.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Kansas City – LA Chargers OVER (#483-484) We tend to think of the Kansas City offense as a sluggish one; what it’s been for the majority of the time that Andy Reid and Alex Smith have spent together as a coach/quarterback duo. But that public perception is flat out wrong, as clearly evidenced by KC’s explosive production against the Patriots in their Week 1 road win, followed up by their explosive second half against the Eagles last week. KC hung 42 points and 537 yards on the Pats in Foxboro, with both Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt showing all kinds of big play, quick strike potential. And after their strong second half against the Eagles last week, KC has now produced 27 points or more in six of their last eight regular season games; an under-rated offense in the markets right now. And it’s surely worth noting that the Chiefs have converted 83% of their red zone tries into touchdowns this season (#2 in the NFL), not settling for field goal tries. But KC is not the same defensive squad without pro bowl safety Eric Berry, arguably the top safety in the NFL. We saw Philadelphia move the ball up and down the field against KC last week, to the tune of 27 first downs and more than 400 yards of offense, including a 6.3 yards per carry average. This is likely to continue to be a problem moving forward. Philip Rivers has opened the season on fire, completing more than 73% of his passes. The Chargers wide receiver depth is impressive now that Keenan Allen is fully recovered from his torn ACL. RB Melvin Gordon has found the end zone in back-2-back weeks. LA is 0-2 because their kicker has missed game tying and game winning field goals in the first two weeks of the season, not because their offense isn’t working. And like KC, the Chargers are scoring TD’s when they get in the red zone, ranked #3 in the NFL with an 80% TD conversion rate. Both teams know that they have to design gameplans to put up TD’s in bunches here. Last year’s meetings were both wild shootouts with 37-27 and 33-27 final scores. The markets reluctance to accept Andy Reid’s Chiefs as an ‘Over’ team has given us plenty of value here; an Over worthy of Big Ticket status! Expect touchdowns in bunches! Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
|||||||
09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 117 h 21 m | Show | |
Take the New York Giants (#479) Let me start with an excerpt from my Monday Night Football write-up supporting the Detroit Lions over the Giants. “These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either.” Yet I’m taking the points with the Giants in this one, after fading them on Monday Night, another game where their offense didn’t work. What gives? First, this pointspread was sitting at +3.5 prior to Monday Night. Now it’s +6. That’s a pretty big reaction, in my opinion, despite the fact that the Giants are poised to get better, not worse. Obviously, with their receiving corps all banged up during preseason, unable to get on the field together with Eli Manning, the passing game was rusty on Monday Night. OBJ was a non-factor in that game, Brandon Marshall dropped a potential TD pass late and Sterling Shepard didn’t create much separation. Savvy bettors know not to expect what they just saw to happen the exact same way again the following week. Unlike the vast majority of the struggling offenses on the list above, there’s legitimate hope for the Giants. I expect this offense to be improved in the short term. The Eagles are at their weakest defensively in the secondary, a stop unit that is clearly vulnerable to big plays. Three different Redskins receivers caught passes of 28 yards or longer in their opener. There was more of the same last week, allowing a pair of 35+ yard passes and a 50+ yard TD run. Eagles starting cornerback Ronald Darby will be out for at least a month and safeties Jaylen Watkins and Rodney McLeod are dealing with hamstring injuries. Yes, Philly has a solid pass rush, but this is not an elite defense right now, plain and simple. Both games between these two teams last year were decided by exactly five points, the same margin of victory for their season finale in 2015. I went back over the series history from the last decade, and Philly hasn’t been favored by this many points even once! The Giants entered the season with a higher win total and a higher power rating number here in Vegas. Bottom line: expect a competitive game, start to finish, and a better showing from the Giants offense. Take the Giants. |
|||||||
09-23-17 | Washington v. Colorado +11.5 | 37-10 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#354) Mike McIntyre has been a pretty darn good pointspread proposition as the Colorado Buffaloes head coach. He’s 6-3 ATS as a home dog since 2014 and 11-5 ATS in all roles in Boulder; consistently offering value for Buffs backers at the betting window. In contrast, Chris Peterson’s team has been hyped like crazy in Vegas. Since their 4-1 ATS start to the season in 2016, Washington has been a consistent money LOSER, unable to cover inflated margins; just 3-7 ATS against FBS competition. Washington has been a big favorite against FBS competition twice this season – Rutgers and Fresno – failing to cover the spread in either contest. The Huskies haven’t stepped up in class yet this season, 4 TD+ favorites in every game thusfar. The last time we saw them step up in class, they got blown out in the BCS Semi-Finals last January. QB Jake Browning puts up HUGE numbers against weak competition. Against the only four quality defenses he faced last year – Bama, Stanford, Colorado and USC – Jake Browning completed less than half of his passes while averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. I’m not saying that Washington isn’t a good team. I am saying that Washington is an over-rated commodity in the betting markets; not a team that I trust to win by big margins against quality foes on the highway. The Buffs have proven quite adept at stepping up in class in the McIntyre era. Last year, they covered at Michigan, pulled outright upsets against Oregon and Stanford and hung within four at USC. They might be every bit as good this year. Colorado is loaded with skill position weapons, with the deepest and most talented receiving corps in the PAC-12. RB Philip Lindsay is averaging 5.3 yards per carry running behind a loaded, experienced offensive line. And sophomore QB Steven Montez has looked rock solid; a young QB with legit ‘bet-on’ potential. The Buffs are a live dog here against a Huskies team that hasn’t been tested yet, still living on their laurels from last year. Take Colorado. |
|||||||
09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa +13 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 33 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#318) Iowa pulls an upset – or comes pretty darn close -- in a game like this one almost every year. They beat Michigan outright as three TD underdogs on this field last year. In 2015, they knocked off Wisconsin as dogs, and nearly pulled the upset in a wire-2-wire spread cover as dogs against Michigan State. In 2014, the Hawkeyes beat Pitt as a dog, and lost by only two to Wisconsin at +8. In 2013, the Hawkeyes hung around against Ohio State as 19 points dogs, upset Nebraska and covered wire-2-wire as dogs against LSU. In 2012, they won outright as dogs against Michigan State and nearly upset Nebraska as two TD dogs. I could go back further – Kirk Ferentz has been there for 19 years now – but you get my point. Iowa is consistently a tough out in games like this one. The markets have officially fallen in love with Penn State, and it’s easy to understand why. The Nittany Lions have been a pointspread covering machine: 3-0 SU and ATS this season (2-0-1 for some) on the heels of their 10-0 ATS mark to close out the 2016 campaign (9-0-1 for some). When a team covers the spread for 13 consecutive games, bettors notice. Markets notice. Bookies get tired of getting burned by the same team week after week. And that’s how you end up with a pointspread like this one, completely out of whack with historical norms – the Nittany Lions were underdogs the last time they played on this field. Penn State stepped up in class on the highway a handful of times in 2015 and 2016. They lost 38-10 at Ohio State in 2015, followed by a 23-21 loss at Northwestern and a 55-16 loss to Michigan State. Last year, the Nittany Lions faced Michigan in Ann Arbor and lost 49-10. They also lost in SU fashion on the highway at Pitt, 42-39. Their road wins in 2016? Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers; all bottom feeders. In short, Penn State has absolutely no track record of winning on the road against quality competition by double digit margins. Iowa is not loaded with skill position talent, but the Hawkeyes are certainly capable of banging in the trenches with the Nittany Lions – they’re not going to get pushed around on either side of the line of scrimmage. The markets have shown little respect for Iowa all season, and last week’s sluggish effort against North Texas didn’t exactly impress bettors. And last year’s loss at Penn State – a 41-14 shellacking – also has the markets devaluing Iowa. But this pointspread range has brought the Penn State love and Iowa antipathy a good notch or two too far. There’s simply too much value on this ‘live’ home dog to ignore, especially for a contest lined in the low 50’s! Take Iowa. |
|||||||
09-23-17 | Auburn -17.5 v. Missouri | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#373) This could be a one sentence write-up. ‘You can stick a fork in them, because Missouri is done’. It’s not even October yet, yet the Tigers have given up on their coach and their season. There’s no sugarcoating what has happened so far. Reports out of Columbia indicate a team in complete disarray. The Tigers spent all offseason practicing their offense at a breakneck pace. Now that the season has started, this ‘uptempo’ attack ranks #114 in the country; running only 61 plays per game. Why? Because their defense is so bad, the Tigers can’t even get their offense onto the field. And when Drew Lock and company get their chance to shine, the results have been ugly. Forget the opener against Missouri State; a game where Missou was a five TD favorite (they didn’t cover). In two games against ‘real’ teams – South Carolina and Purdue – Lock and the Tigers offense have been held to a grand total of 16 points. Lock completed less than half his passes in both of those contests, throwing for under 400 yards combined, despite the fact that Missouri was trailing start to finish in those games. Missouri had a legitimate chance to step up last week against a suspect Purdue squad that has been a Big 10 bottom feeder for the last decade. Instead, they were non-competitive – at home, as favorites – in a game that was over well before halftime. Missouri has already fired their defensive coordinator; arguably the worst Power 5 conference defense in the country. Their offense isn’t working, despite returning ten starters on that side of the ball. It’s pretty clear that head coach Barry Odom is in over his head; a first time head coach for the program he starred at in the 90’s. Missouri cannot be expected to play competitive football moving forward. Auburn struggled against Clemson’s elite defensive front two weeks ago; unable to move the football. Last week, against lowly Mercer, the Tigers committed five turnovers, including three inside Mercer’s 30 yard line, taking away potential scores; a clear ‘flat’ effort following their defeat against Clemson. I’m not expecting such lethargy this week for their SEC opener against a team they are primed to annihilate. Gus Malzahn isn’t known for taking his foot off the gas pedal, especially considering the Tigers offensive woes in early season play. Five of Auburn’s eight wins last year came by 24 points or more, and they’re coming into this game with a chip on their collective shoulders and something to prove. No surprise here if this spread, much like last week’s Missouri game against Purdue, is covered by halftime. Take Auburn. |
|||||||
09-23-17 | Syracuse v. LSU OVER 56 | 26-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse – LSU OVER (#367-368) Dino Babers plays one way and one way only – fast! The Orange rank in the top ten in the country in offensive plays run per game so far this season, and they’re just getting started; now in the second year of Babers system. Returning QB starter Eric Dungey was nothing short of brilliant last week, making plays with his feet and his arm and hanging 41 points on Central Michigan before the fourth quarter even started. Obviously, there’s no comparison between Central Michigan’s defense in the CarrierDome and LSU’s defense in Baton Rouge – this is a big step up in class for the Orange. But Babers has made it clear – his squad is going to continue to push the tempo at every opportunity. And LSU’s defense has one major weakness this week; a weakness that isn’t getting noticed in the betting marketplace……yet. By the end of last Saturday’s beatdown by Mississippi State, LSU’s defensive line was running on fumes. With injuries and suspensions, Defensive Coordinator Dave Aranda doesn’t have much to work with this week. Ed Alexander won’t play. Neither will Frank Herron or Andre Anthony. Neil Farrell, a frosh forced into the starting lineup, will miss the first half after getting called for targeting last week. Defensive end Rashard Lawrence is back at practice, but he’s only expected to see ‘some snaps’ this week. Edge rusher Sci Martni has yet to dress for a game this season. And I would be remiss if I failed to mention the injury that senior safety Ed Paris suffered in practice this week – he’ll be replaced by a true frosh in the starting lineup. This is NOT a defensive line poised to control the line of scrimmage, bad news against an Orange offense poised to play with pace all night long. Last season, LSU offensive coordinator Matt Canada was at Pittsburgh. Pitt faced Syracuse in November in arguably the wildest game of the year. The Panthers won 76-61 behind 393 rushing yards, and their nine pass completions netted a whopping 251 yards as the Orange sold out to stop the run. Canada spent the offseason talking about ‘opening up’ the LSU offense, but we’ve seen no evidence of that thusfar – hence the low total here. But this is the ideal game for Canada to put his uptempo, big play concepts into play, with Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss and Alabama looming on their schedule. If they do, LSU has the potential to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Even if they don’t and just run the ball up the gut 50 times, the Orange defense can’t handle this level of speed and talent. And don’t worry one bit about Tigers RB Derrius Guice sitting out this week. His backups, Darrel Williams and Nick Brossette, are both enjoying a higher yards per carry average than Guice so far this season, a team with ample running back depth. Take the Over. |
|||||||
09-23-17 | Duke v. North Carolina +2.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 49 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take North Carolina (#312) There seems to be a fair bit of anti-Tar Heels vitriol in this pointspread, because, quite frankly, Duke has no business as road favorites in this ballgame. Based on the early market moves, I’m not convinced the Blue Devils will be favored at all by kickoff – this is one that you want to bet sooner, rather than later. I understand that Larry Fedora’s squad looked very rough for the first few weeks of the campaign, and there’s no surprise why. The Tar Heels sent their QB to the first round of the NFL draft, lost their top four running backs to graduation and sent WR Ryan Switzer to the NFL in the fourth round. That’s a LOT of talent for a program like North Carolina to replace in one offseason. No surprise, then, that the Tar Heels couldn’t trade points with Cal and Louisville in their first two games of the season. But Larry Fedora is a bright offensive mind, and there’s no question that the Tar Heels found some offensive mojo last week, on the road at Old Dominion, hanging 53 on the Monarchs. Frosh Chazz Surratt, a Top 20 QB recruit coming out of high school, has taken over at quarterback, without an interception in his first 66 collegiate pass attempts. RB’s Jordan Brown and Michael Carter – also, both Top 40 recruits nationally – are both averaging nearly 5 ½ yards per carry. Seven different receivers have averaged at least two catches per game, a deep receiving corps. Their offensive line is loaded and even kicker Freeman Jones is one of the best at his positon in the country. Fedora has recruited well here – the cupboard is most assuredly not bare for the Tar Heels offense, despite their 1-2 record. Duke is not built to stop potent offenses. Lowly Baylor couldn’t move the ball against the likes of Texas –San Antonio at home two weeks ago. Last week, the Bears connected for a pair of 70+ yard touchdown catches against Duke’s defense. The only reason the Blue Devils won by 14 was due to a pick six, something we don’t see many of from the Duke defense and their relatively limited athleticism. The Tar Heels hung 66 on Duke when the Blue Devils last visited Chapel Hill, but the Blue Devils stole a one point win at home last year, rallying from two TD’s down and holding North Carolina off the scoreboard in the fourth quarter. Fedora following that loss: “Every time we would make a play, we would shoot ourselves in the foot on the next one or something would happen.” Make no mistake about it – this is absolutely a ‘circled’ game on the Tar Heels schedule this year, a major ‘step-up’ spot. Duke has more freshmen and sophomores starting on defense (five) than seniors (three). They’ve yet to face a potent offense clicking on all cylinders – Northwestern was all banged up on offense in their loss to Duke. The Blue Devils are leaving home for the first time all season, stepping up in class and laying points against an underrated foe. That’s a ‘bet-against’ trifecta for me! Big Ticket: Take North Carolina.! |
|||||||
09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona OVER 55 | 30-24 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Arizona OVER (#307-308) If Rich Rod had his way, every Arizona game would fly Over the total. His Arizona Wildcats got an easy blowout win last week; working out their offensive kinks in a 63-16 win over UTEP; a game that cemented Brandon Dawkins as the starting QB moving forward. Dawkins threw for three touchdowns and ran for three more, flashing signs of his potential as a Top 40 QB recruit coming out of high school. After struggling offensively in their first ‘step up in defensive class’ game against Houston the previous week; ‘Zona is primed to move the football up and down the field this week, something they’ve had success doing against Kyle Whittingham’s defenses. Whittingham knows what’s coming: “They run the zone read as well as anyone in the country. They have a quarterback that is an exceptional runner. That is exactly what they look for in their quarterback, the ability to be a dual threat. We have struggled with them.” Arizona is going to push the pace at every opportunity, looking to wear the Utah defense down. The Utes haven’t been tested in that regard at all this year, facing three very weak offenses, none of whom run uptempo, in their first three ballgames. But the Utes are primed to move the football up and down the field against the Wildcats! QB Tyler Hundley is coming off a four TD effort last week, completing better than 70% of his passes for the season. And with new coordinator Troy Taylor throwing the football more than his predecessor, the Utes have strong Over potential here in 2017. Rich Rod and Kyle Whittingham have met five times over the last five years. Those final scores? 36-23, 37-30, 42-10, 35-24 and 34-24. We’re not seeing many defensive struggles, and there’s no reason to expect a defensive struggle this time around either. Take the Over. |
|||||||
09-21-17 | Rams -2 v. 49ers | 41-39 | Push | 0 | 53 h 46 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#301) Let me start with an excerpt from my Monday Night Football write-up supporting the Lions over the Giants. “These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either.” And that’s the crux of this bet. I circled this quote in preseason, from 12 year veteran left tackle Joe Staley, talking about the complexity of the 49ers new offense, and the team’s struggles to learn it: “I think one of the things that even I wasn’t expecting was how detailed you have to be in everything as far as the run game. Aiming points. Everyone’s got to be on the same page — running backs, linemen, receivers, everybody, for it to work.” The 49ers entered the season without a QB who threw a pass or a WR who caught a pass on the roster from last year. They’ve yet to reach the end zone. And the 49ers certainly aren’t a team with a significant home field edge these days, just 2-7 ATS at Levi Stadium since the start of the 2016 campaign. This offense isn’t working and San Fran is not a team likely to be marching up and down the field consistently anytime soon. The Rams just got run over by the Redskins, but there were many positive signs in that defeat. Todd Gurley, following the late loss: “Last year, it would have been a lot different. It would have been 27-3, instead of us, as an offense, being able to put points on the board and being able to keep our defense in it. It’s a start.” The Rams have stalwart defensive tackle Aaron Donald back on the field after his long holdout. And unlike the Niners, LA’s offense is working. Jared Goff had a 63.6 QB rating last year while averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt. This year it’s a 103.2 QB rating and 9.8 yards per pass attempt; a HUGE difference (and a big confidence boost) for a young quarterback. The Rams got swept by San Francisco last year, the 49ers only two wins of the season. Expect LA to get a little payback on Thursday Night in a pointspread range that ensures a victory by a field goal will cash our winning bet. Take the Rams. |
|||||||
09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 24-10 | Win | 105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#289) These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either. The defense that shut down the G-men got torched for six touchdowns yesterday. New York has a mediocre QB in Eli Manning, an offensive line that ranks among the weaker ones in the NFL and a very banged up receiving corps, whether OBJ plays or not. And oh, by the way, this offense has gotten statistically weaker every year since Bob McAdoo arrived as the offensive coordinator; even more so since he became the head coach. All the Lions do is play close games – nine of their sixteen games last year were decided LESS than a touchdown. Matthew Stafford led the NFL in fourth quarter comebacks last year and he engineered another one in Week 1 – the Lions have shown ample character responding from adversity. Jim Caldwell’s squad won SU as road underdogs at Indy, Minnesota and New Orleans last year, and they just might have the most electrifying player on the field in rookie WR Kenny Golladay, who has been turning heads since Day 1 of training camp. Find a +3.5 and grab it! Take the Lions |
|||||||
09-18-17 | Twins +142 v. Yankees | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#961) No team in MLB has been better in the road underdog role than the Minnesota Twins this year. The Twins are ranked #2 in road profitability overall; only half a unit behind the ‘often road chalk’ Nationals. Starter Erwin Santana has been a huge part of that success, 9-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 14 previous road tilts. The Twins are 7-2 in his nine starts since the beginning of August, with Santana coming off a STRONG six inning, three hit shutout effort in his last outing; a ‘bet-on’ hurler in this big dog price range. And he’s the type of savvy veteran hurler I have no issues supporting at Yankee Stadium in the midst of a pennant race. Yankees hurler Jamie Garcia hasn’t finished the sixth inning in any of his six starts since joining the team. His 24-17 strikeout to walk ratio with this Yanks isn’t exactly ‘bet-on’ either; a veteran hurler who doesn’t seem to have much left in the tank these days. It’s surely worth noting that the Yankees have at least one set of back-2-back losses on every homestand since the beginning of August, and they’re coming off a bad loss to the previously slumping Orioles yesterday. ‘Live dog’ here! Take the Twins. |
|||||||
09-17-17 | Dolphins +4 v. Chargers | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#277) My initial thought on the ‘hurricane impeded’ teams in both the NFL and college was to fade them at every reasonable opportunity. And, at first glance, the Miami Dolphins certainly had the look of a team who would be negatively impacted by the weather event in South Florida, much like the Houston Texans were negatively influenced by Hurricane Harvey in their opener last week. But the knee jerk reaction – ‘fade this team’ – didn’t hold water once I started doing some digging on this game. In fact, the opposite was true – Miami is a ‘bet-on’ squad this week, plain and simple. The Dolphins coaching staff had their act together. The team charter left for LA last Friday, with players AND THEIR FAMILIES invited to leave town. They’ve been practicing at the Cowboys facility in Oxnard ever since, focused on only one thing – beating the LA Chargers. The Chargers are on a short week, and their entire focus was on beating Denver on Monday Night. In terms of ‘preparation for the opponent at hand’, Adam Gase and his staff have a significant edge. That’s not the only edge for Miami in this contest. The Chargers defense was on the field for 68 snaps against Denver, in altitude. Now they’ve got a short week to get ready for the type of speedy playmakers they didn’t see in Denver on Monday Night, and a QB protected by a much stronger offensive line than the one they saw against the Broncos. Make no mistake about it – Miami has weapons to stretch the field with Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Julius Thomas and DeVante Parker. They’ve got offensive balance, with Jay Ajayi running behind that rock solid offensive line. And while Jay Cutler gives some bettors recurring nightmares, the bottom line is that Cutler knows this system well from his time under Gase in Chicago, primed to succeed in his Dolphins debut. Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. And when you talk about a home field edge – well, the Chargers don’t have one in a venue that is just as new to them as it is to Miami. And let’s be real – the city of LA is not excited about hosting a team from San Diego. StubHub Center seats only 27,000, yet this game is not sold out – not even close. The Rams – a team with a legit LA fan base – are kicking off across town 20 minutes later. So, let me recap. The Dolphins are power rated in the same range as the Chargers – no talent edge for the home team. Miami has a strong situational edge, the focus edge, the rest and practice edge PLUS the Chargers have no real home field edge. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. I expect the outright upset, but a close loss will serve our purposes just fine in this pointspread range! Big Ticket: Take the Dolphins. |
|||||||
09-17-17 | Vikings +6 v. Steelers | 9-26 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#273) Minnesota’s win against the Saints on Monday Night wasn’t fraudulent in the slightest. There were three key factors in play, all of which should still be in play as they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. First, Sam Bradford finally had a full, healthy offseason in the same offensive system. Bradford was under duress throughout his tenure in St Louis, playing behind a dismal offensive line and a handful of new coordinators. He struggled to pick up the offense when he was traded to Philly, then struggled to learn Chip Kelly’s complex scheme. Last year, he was traded in training camp to Minnesota. So this is really the first time in his career that Sam Bradford spent the entire offseason with the same team working on the same offense he ran last year. Guess what – it showed! Bradford was the ultimate dink and dunker last year, but he was firing away downfield on Monday Night, hitting WR’s Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs 16 times for 250 yards! Second, Sam Bradford has at least a serviceable offensive line to throw behind. The Vikings OL last year was an injury riddled disaster area. They spent big $$ in free agency and significant draft capital to shore up the unit and their running game. That improvement was on full display in Week 1, and it was no mirage. Bradford’s quote: “When I’ve got time to sit back there and evaluate things, I’ve got all the confidence in the world that our receivers on the outside are going to win.” Third, the Vikings defense was elite last year before finally wearing down late, capable of winning games by themselves, despite a very mediocre offense. That defense sure looks elite once again, holding the Saints out of the end zone until garbage time, with five pro bowlers on that side of the football. Let’s not forget how much success Mike Zimmer’s defense has had against Ben Roethlisberger over the years. During Zimmer’s tenure as the Bengals defensive coordinator, Big Ben had a QB rating of only 81.6 in ten games against Cinci –mediocre, not elite. The Steelers, on paper, still have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. That was not on display in Cleveland last week, a game where the Steelers had a grand total of two scoring drives, while gaining less than 300 yards of total offense. Mike Tomlin didn’t get his regulars much playing time in August, and it showed. Stepping up in class against an elite defense here won’t help Pittsburgh win this one by margin….if they win the game at all. Take the Vikings. |
|||||||
09-17-17 | Browns +9 v. Ravens | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#263) So let me get this straight. Joe Flacco missed all of preseason; one of many injured veterans for the Ravens in August. Baltimore lost nearly a dozen guys to IR in training camp, losing key bodies on both sides of the football. Flacco was VERY rusty last week, completing only nine passes. The Ravens, as a team, had only one explosive play on offense for the entire game – one of Jeremy Maclin’s two catches. They ran for only 3.7 yards per carry. And John Harbaugh’s squad produced a grand total of one touchdown on a drive longer than two yards for the entire game. And now this team is taking $$, laying more than a TD to the Browns? I’m not buying it! Yes, Baltimore’s defense generated pressure against a very suspect Cinci offensive line. And yes, that defense forced four turnovers against a QB with a long track record of failing miserably under pressure. But they were underdogs last week; transitoning to favorites this Sunday. And that makes a BIG difference, when it comes to the Baltimore Ravens. The numbers don’t lie. In their last dozen tries as favorites of more than a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens are 2-10 ATS. Six of their eight wins last year came by a TD or less. NONE of their wins in 2015 came by more than a TD. Flacco is light years away from being 100%, still dealing with a herniated disk in his back. The Ravens do not have an elite offensive line and their skill position talent base is as weak as it gets among potential playoff contenders. Yet the betting markets are looking at Baltimore’s defense and thinking it can cover pointspreads by themselves, the way the Ravens were capable of covering spreads with their D for much of the Ray Lewis era. After all, they pitched a shutout last week, and now get to face a rookie QB making his road debut. I’m not buying that argument one iota. The Ravens rebuilt their ‘D’ this past offseason – this isn’t a tried and tested unit. They just faced a team with major offensive line concerns, now facing a squad with a top tier OL. And, oh, by the way, Baltimore has to win this game by more than a TD to cover the spread, something they’ve repeatedly struggled to do. Count me in as a Cleveland Browns believer. They were every bit as good as Pittsburgh last week, losing the game only because of a blocked punt TD; not something I would expect to see again in Week 2. DeShone Kizer came from a bigtime college program at Notre Dame, and showed great poise in Week 1, despite taking numerous hits. WR Corey Coleman showed playmaking ability, something the Browns didn’t have last year. The OL wasn’t great in the opener, but it’s a ‘Night and Day’ stronger unit than last year. The Browns defense was great against Pittsburgh, stepping down in class here. This is, quite simply, too many points for a Ravens team that doesn’t win many games by margin to lay. And Cleveland was so bad last year that there is clearly residual value to support them in early season action here in 2017. Expect a competitive contest. Take the Browns. |
|||||||
09-16-17 | Ole Miss v. California +4 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show | |
Take California (#208) In many recent seasons, the Ole Miss Rebels have been competing for SEC West titles. They beat Alabama in 2014 AND 2015, while blowing out the likes of Georgia, Tennessee, Boise and Texas A&M, finishing near the top of the SEC standings both times. That was then, this is now. Ole Miss fell to 5-7 last year, missing a bowl. They were blown out as ‘more than a TD’ favorites by the likes of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to close out the campaign, with a bowl bid on the line, not showing any resolve or chemistry as a squad. Then head coach Hugh Freeze got caught up in an embarrassing scandal, fired late in the offseason. He was replaced by co-offensive coordinator and Rebels alumnus Matt Luke (a big reason why Luke got the interim job over other potential candidates). What have we seen in the first two weeks of the Matt Luke era? Enough red flags to make Cal a clear choice for me on Saturday Night! Let’s start with the fact that they were outrushed at home by Tennessee Martin last week by a 219-54 margin. Yes, that’s a non- D-1 school outrushing Ole Miss by a 4:1 margin on their home field! It was a similar story against South Alabama in their opener – the Jaguars had more first downs than the Rebels, and outrushed Ole Miss 4.6 to 3.5 yards per carry. That’s a middling Sun Belt school pushing around the Ole Miss defensive front on their home field! It’s also a one dimensional offense – pass only – that is much easier for opposing coordinators to defend. Things get much tougher for the Rebels this week as they fly cross country to take on resurgent Cal in a game that won’t end until well after midnight for the Rebels player’s body clocks. Cal’s defense has had some early season struggles with big plays, but their offense has been nothing short of dynamic. Here’s the key quote: “It’s hard to find a common thread on the explosive plays. I don’t think it was, ‘Hey, they’re better than us.’ I think they are correctable issues. They’re not consistently getting beat by guys who are faster and more athletic.” Cal won eight games in 2015 and beat the likes of Texas, Utah, Oregon and UCLA last year; not the PAC-12 bottom feeder that some have them pegged as. QB Ross Bowers and WR’s Demetris Robinson – the #2 WR recruit in the country when he signed at Berkeley -- and Vic Wharton already have a nice chemistry together in their first year under Justin Wilcox. This game has ‘down to the last possession’ written all over it, making Ole Miss a clear ‘fade’ as road chalk on Saturday Night. Take Cal. |
|||||||
09-16-17 | Troy -7 v. New Mexico State | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Troy (#197) The Trojans beat New Mexico State 41-24 in 2014. They won here in Las Cruces 52-7 in 2015. They beat the Aggies 52-6 back at home last year. So what’s so different in 2017 that will allow the Aggies to hang within a TD of the Trojans? NOTHING! Sure, New Mexico State is 2-0 ATS while Troy is 0-2 ATS, but that’s why this pointspread is so short for a team that was a three TD favorite in a game they won by 46 points last year. The Trojans brought back just about everyone on offense. It starts with senior QB Brandon Silvers, who threw for 23 TD’s while completing 64% of his passes last year. Silvers has a trio of returning senior starters at wide receiver; a group with special chemistry – this team returns 98.7% of last year’s offensive production, tops in the country. It’s surely worth noting that Silvers has picked apart the slower Aggies defense in both previous starts against them, to the tune of 7 TD’s without an interception. New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE victory against their biggest rival, New Mexico, barely hanging on after blowing nearly all of a 30-5 fourth quarter lead. Following their three wins last year, the Aggies lost each of their next games by 20+ points, unable to maintain their intensity. And we’re certainly not talking about a program that gets many wins; 11-39 in five seasons under Doug Martin. The Aggies lack defensive speed, ranked among the bottom ten pass defenses in college football in each of the last two seasons. And their offense isn’t good enough to trade points with the likes of Troy, not even close. The Lobos spent all kinds of time in the offseason and through the first two weeks of the campaign working on slowing down the New Mexico option attack. It worked – they won, for the second straight season. But now they face the antithesis of that attack the following week, without extra prep time – Troy is going to spread the field and air It out, then pound the ball up the gut with their 240 pound bowling bowl of a running back. That’s particularly bad news for an Aggies defense that will be missing their best player in the secondary, senior safety Jaden Wright, an All-Conference second teamer last year. Don’t expect many stops from the Aggies defense this year either, in a game that has real ‘blowout’ potential. Take Troy. |
|||||||
09-16-17 | Notre Dame v. Boston College UNDER 51 | 49-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame – Boston College UNDER (#115-116) Boston College has faced Notre Dame seven times in the last decade. Here are the final scores from those games, starting with last year’s matchup: 19-16. 21-6. 16-14. 31-13. 20-16. 17-0. And 27-14. You’re not seeing any shootouts, nary a one. The Under has cashed in each and every one of those meetings. And there’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different on Saturday. BC’s offense is broken. Steve Addazio’s squad averaged only 17 points per game in 2015 and 20 ppg last year. In two games this season, the Eagles managed to get to 23 against a MAC school in their opener, then were held to 10 last week at home against Wake Forest. They’ve got a frosh QB in Anthony Brown, who threw three picks last week – don’t expect the Eagles to suddenly air it out on Saturday, especially considering their offensive line woes, a very banged up unit. BC does one thing well – they play defense –and that won’t change against the Irish. Notre Dame faced a ‘real’ defense at home last week and were shut down in a 20-19 loss. First year starting QB Brandon Wimbush threw 40 passes and had 16 runs/sacks. The Irish gained a grand total of 211 yards on those 56 plays, not exactly marching up and down the field. This will be the first road start for Wimbush and I’m not expecting the Irish to suddenly air it out either. Expect yet another tight, defensive struggle in a series that’s been full of them! Take the Under. |
|||||||
09-16-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas A&M OVER 61.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M – Louisiana- Lafayette OVER (#159-160) Louisiana- Lafayette has a pretty clear track record when stepping up in class under Mark Hudspeth, now in his seventh year on the job. In 2012, they went to Oklahoma State and lost 65-24. In 2013, they went to Kansas State and lost 48-27. In 2014, a visit to Ole Miss resulted in a 56-15 defeat. In 2015, they opened at Kentucky and lost 40-33. Last year they allowed 45 at Boise and 35 at Georgia, while the offense reached double digits both times. The Rajin’ Cajun defense lacks the speed, size and overall talent to slow down high octane attacks on the road against Power 5 Conference squads. To make matters worse for La-La in this game, they’re facing a Texas A&M squad with something to prove on Saturday and a head coach on the hot seat, looking to run up scores in front of the home faithful while he has the chance. The Aggies blew a 34 point second half lead at UCLA in their opener, then looked as flat as a pancake last week against Nicholls State. This is clearly their ‘step-up’ game with their SEC opener on deck against Arkansas. Kevin Sumlin and his staff are primed to call an aggressive gameplan against the Rajin’ Cajuns because Sumlin is most assuredly worried about his defense: “Their scheme gets the ball down the field. They'll make us defend the whole field. Mark Hudspeth is aggressive when it comes to all three phases of the game. Everyone will need to be on their toes, and it will be a good challenge this weekend." Meanwhile, Hudspeth knows that his team has to trade points to be competitive in this one. Here’s his quote following La-La’s 66-42 loss at Tulsa last Saturday; a game that flew Over the total by nearly seven touchdowns: “We tried to stay with them, foot-to-foot in a track meet and for about three quarters we did. But we've got to go back to the drawing board defensively.” Going back to the drawing board defensively against this high octane offense is a recipe for trouble! Expect a wild shootout, start to finish! Big Ticket: Take the Over! |
|||||||
09-15-17 | White Sox +103 v. Tigers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Take the Chicago White Sox (#919) To call the Detroit Tigers a ‘dead’ team right now would not be any sort of overstatement. A team that started the season with World Series dreams is now a bottom feeder, just playing out the string. The Tigers have watched Justin Verlander shine with the Astros and JD Martinez shine with the D-backs, just two of the many talented veterans they have traded away over the past two months. Detroit lost at home by ten runs to these same White Sox last night; outscored 48-16 during their current six game skid, now 2-12 here in September. This team cannot be the betting favorite over anyone right now, period! The White Sox have been a dead team for the better part of the last two months as well. But the bevy of September callups has given this team a real boost, no surprise given the depth and strength of their farm system. All of a sudden, this ‘dead’ team has won five of their last six, outscoring foes 57-19 during that span – four of the wins came by seven runs or more. Chicago just won a road series at playoff contending Kansas City, primed to keep rolling against Anibal Sanchez and his 9.24 ERA since the All Star Break. Take the White Sox |
|||||||
09-14-17 | Braves +162 v. Nationals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#955) The Nationals clinched the NL East title with a win on Sunday as well as a Miami Marlins loss. Despite the Dodgers slide, Washington isn’t going to catch up to LA to earn home field advantage in the playoffs. They’ve got a 20 game lead in the division. This is recess time for the Nats, and they’ve certainly played like it over the past two nights, losing the first two games of this series by a combined 16-2 margin, despite the fact that they were -170 and -310 chalk in those two ballgames! The Nats had a losing record down the stretch last year, and they lost half a dozen September games at -150 or higher. They had a losing record down the stretch in 2015, suffering seven losses as favorites over the final 2 ½ weeks of the campaign. So what should we expect that’s different under Dusty Baker this year? Absolutely nothing! Washington is LA right now, a team with gaudy full season stats and records, but not a squad primed to play at that same level here in September; an easy squad to fade in this price range. The Braves haven’t quit, winners of three straight and just a game and a half out of second place right now! Their lineup is clicking, off back-2-back eight run outbursts. Starter Mike Foltynewicz has allowed only six runs in his last three starts combined, despite facing the Cubs and Rockies potent lineups during that span. And it’s surely worth noting that Foltynewicz threw a gem in his last start on this field back in July; on the right side of a 5-2 Atlanta victory. Live dog here! Take the Braves. |
|||||||
09-13-17 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – Cincinnati OVER (#909-910) Last year at this time, St Louis starter Jack Flaherty was pitching in single A ball. He threw 134 innings for the season. He started this year in AA ball, now up to 158 innings and counting. His first two big league starts both came against light hitting lineups – San Diego and San Francisco – and neither was pretty. Flaherty allowed eight hits and five runs in four innings against the Giants, then struggled with his control, issuing four walks in five innings against San Fran last week. Flaherty is not a likely candidate to throw a seven or eight inning gem here. Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle is an intriguing prospect, but Cinci has been babying him, for good reason. Despite the fact that the Reds pitching staff spent the second consecutive season dealing with a barrage of injuries, Mahle wasn’t the first starting pitcher called up. Or the second, third, fourth or fifth, for that matter. Mahle, too, has faced nothing but cold, anemic lineups at the big league level – the Pirates twice and the Mets. In two of those three starts, he struggled with walks, just like Flaherty has done; never a good sign. Mahle, like Flaherty, is not primed to dominate tonight. Both bullpens have been worn down of late. Four of Cinci’s last five starters haven’t made it into the sixth inning, while the Cardinals starting staff has been struggling to eat up innings as well. Both lineups are in solid current form. St Louis has scored 28 runs in the first four games of their homestand; Cinci has hung 14 over the past two games. Even home plate ump Sean Barber is trending Over when calling balls and strikes, with a relatively narrow strike zone. Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the OVER. |
|||||||
09-12-17 | Rockies +117 v. Diamondbacks | 4-2 | Win | 117 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#961) My clients and I cashed a ‘big dog’ bet on the Rockies last night, and we have every reason to think that Colorado is worthy of a wager once again this evening as they continue their series against the Diamondbacks. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “Arizona was as hot as any team in baseball – even the Cleveland Indians – when they won 13 straight games, including two sweeps of the Dodgers and one over the Rockies in Colorado. All streaks eventually come to an end, which happened to Arizona this past weekend when they lost two out of three to San Diego. But the markets don’t immediately react; still buoyed by the recent betting attention that squad has gotten, despite the fact that they’re not red hot anymore. “Colorado, on the other hand, is red hot. The Rockies went through a nasty skid; 8-17 over a 25 game span through most of August and into September, resulting in a major betting market adjustment. That was then, this is now! The Rockies have come out of their skid clicking on all cylinders; coming off a four game sweep in LA, now with seven wins in their last eight overall. Bud Black’s lineup is hot, pounding out 33 runs on their current five game winning streak.” Rockies infielder DJ LeMahieu, following last night’s win:"I think these last couple of wins have been really good for us. We kind of got it handed to us for a week or two but battled back and have won some really close games on the road. We just need to keep it going." D-backs starter Taijuan Walker has been on a tear, coming off four consecutive strong showings. But Walker has lacked consistency throughout his big league career, and his track record against Colorado isn’t particularly good, with current Rockies owning a .280 batting average and .840 OPS against him in more than 100 career at bats. Meanwhile, Colorado starter Jon Gray is ‘bet-on’ all the way right now, having allowed three runs or less in every start since his first one after the All Star Break. Live dog here! Take the Rockies. |
|||||||
09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 42 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Denver – LA Chargers OVER (#481-482) After a Week 1 featuring one Under after the next (10-2 to the Under on Sunday), it’s no surprise that we’ve seen a steady flow of Under $$ again tonight as the Broncos and Chargers battle in Denver. But there’s ample reason to think that both defenses aren’t going to be quite as good as advertised, while both squads have plenty of big play potential on offense. Put those factors together with the total plummeting downwards in early betting action and the case for betting AGAINST the line move becomes perfectly clear. Two years ago, the Broncos defense was good enough to win a Super Bowl despite bottom tier QB play from Peyton Manning in his final season. Last year, the Broncos pass defense ranked #1 in the NFL by a huge margin, effectively shutting down every strong attack they faced. But Denver’s defense isn’t even close to being the same unit this year. Coordinator Wade Phillips is gone. Pro bowl safety TJ Ward was cut in a cost cutting move last week. Denver has cluster injuries on the defensive line – they won’t be able to rotate guys in and out of the game this evening. We can and should expect a fairly significant drop-off from the Broncos defense in 2017, starting right here. The betting markets have been enamored with LA’s defensive personnel, despite the fact that the Chargers, too, have already lost key guys to injuries (LB Denzel Perryman stands out). This is not a defense that has been effective in any recent season, yet some lofty preseason rankings (one publication even called their DL the #1 unit in the NFL) has the markets frothing about their defensive potential. I’m not buying that the Chargers defense has turned into an elite unit between the end of last season and the start of this season. Both teams are loaded with big play weapons, capable of scoring quick strike TD’s. LA has Melvin Gordon, Tyrell Williams, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, among others, with strong veteran Philip Rivers chucking the football around. Denver Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy was the Chargers head coach last year – he knows their weaknesses as well as anybody in the NFL. And the Broncos, still have the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and CJ Anderson for Trevor Siemian to find. Expect enough big plays to send this game up and over the total, after the market overreaction to the all the Unders played yesterday. Take the OVER. |
|||||||
09-11-17 | Rockies +180 v. Diamondbacks | 5-4 | Win | 180 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#903) Arizona was as hot as any team in baseball – even the Cleveland Indians – when they won 13 straight games, including two sweeps of the Dodgers and one over the Dbacks in Colorado. All streaks eventually come to an end, which happened to Arizona this past weekend when they lost two out of three to San Diego. But the markets don’t immediately react; still buoyed by the recent betting attention that squad has gotten. That explains why Arizona is 2:1 chalk tonight, despite the fact that they’re not red hot anymore. Colorado, on the other hand, is red hot. The Rockies went through a nasty skid; 8-17 over a 25 game span through most of August and into September, resulting in a major betting market adjustment. That was then, this is now! The Rockies have come out of their skid clicking on all cylinders; coming off a four game sweep in LA, now with six wins in their last seven overall. Bud Black’s bullpen is rested and ready, and his lineup is hot, pounding out 28 runs in their dominant, confidence inducing sweep against the Dodgers. Yes, this game has a starting pitching mismatch, with Zack Greinke going for Arizona against Kyle Freeland for Colorado. But Arizona averages a run less per nine innings against opposing southpaws compared to righties and Freeland threw a six inning, one run gem in his lone previous start on this field this year. Meanwhile, the Rockies have hit six homers against Greinke in the three games he’s started against them this season, and they just destroyed one Dodgers ace after the next this past weekend. Live dog here! Take the Rockies. |
|||||||
09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams -3.5 | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#472) The Colts aren’t just weak without Andrew Luck behind center. My numbers show Indy as the #31 team in the NFL with Scott Tolzien as their starting quarterback, like he will be here in Week 1. Tolzien might have been the weakest backup in the NFL. Now he’s the weakest starter. He started one game for the Colts last year. They lost that game 28-7; Tolzien had more interceptions than touchdowns. Tolzien also had a couple of starts with Green Bay back in 2013. The Packers lost both games that he started and finished by double digit margins as well. But it’s not just the Scott Tolzien factor. Indy’s offensive line allowed 44 sacks last year; bottom five in the NFL. That offensive line has not been upgraded in the offseason. Neither has their depleted receiving corps. And defensively, this squad has gone through a complete offseason rebuild, with as many as seven new starters expected on the field in LA on Sunday. Long term, that’s probably a good thing for a D that tied for dead last in the NFL on a yards per play basis last year. Short term, we’re talking about a completely rebuilt stop unit that will inevitably lack chemistry. Their pass rush ranks among the weakest in the NFL and their rebuilt secondary is a major question mark with a pair of rookies penciled in as starters, now that pro bowl CB Vontae Davis has been ruled out for the opener. This is not a team primed to win many games right now, arguably my #1 ‘bet-against’ team in the NFL heading into the regular season. The Rams went 3-1 in September last year before the injury bug started to bite and the bottom fell out. No surprise here if LA starts strong again in the Sean McVay era as well. The Rams have strong defensive personnel and coordinator Wade Phillips is known for quick turnarounds at previous stops. Their offensive line was upgraded in the offseason as well, giving Jared Goff a fighting chance to develop into the elite QB that the Rams thought he would be when they took him #1 overall. Bottom line: this is a cheap price to lay to bet against the Colts! Take the Rams. |
|||||||
09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans +1 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -115 | 458 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tennessee (#464) I could literally write a book about why Tennessee is such a great bet in a pick ‘em price range in Week 1 at home against the Raiders. But I’m going to abbreviate and keep this one short. There are two basic components: #1: Tennessee is really good. The Titans went 8-4 down the stretch last year; including wins over playoff bound foes like Green Bay, Houston and Kansas City. Their home field was particularly strong, winning and covering each of their last four. This year’s Titans squad is primed to be even better than last year’s team. A defense that forced only 18 takeaways in 16 games last season brought in ‘instant impact’ playmaker Logan Ryan to shore up their secondary. And the Corey Davis/Taywan Taylor duo taken in the draft have upgraded Marcus Mariota’s weaponry. Throw in an elite offensive line and a strong tier of running backs, and the Titans are primed to build off last year’s success, starting right here in Week 1. The Titans lost at home to Minnesota in Week 1 last year and they followed that up with a Week 3 home loss to the Raiders thanks to a +2 turnover margin and a late defensive stand. Tennessee ended up missing the playoffs due to tiebreakers because of those two losses. There’s a legitimate sense of urgency for the Titans to come out of the gate with a win this time around, good news for us in this pick ‘em price range. And #2, there are ample reasons to expect the Raiders to come out sluggish in Week 1. Obviously, an early start game back East requires a ratchet to the system – all four of their preseason games were played at night out West. Oakland committed only 14 giveaways last year, a number primed to rise significantly. And the Raiders 6-0 SU mark in games decided by less than a TD is also primed for regression. Perhaps most importantly, the Raiders don’t match up well with Tennessee. Oakland’s biggest weakness heading into the season is their front seven on defense, very questionable against the run. This defense ranked next to last in the NFL, allowing six yards per play last year. Their pass rush couldn’t reach the QB, ranked dead last in sacks, and their run defense was bottom quartile in yards per rush allowed. Neither area was properly addressed in the offseason, and both their lack of pass rush and their struggles defending the run are likely to be problematic here. Oakland pulled off a bunch of last minute comebacks last year; very difficult to repeat when it comes to a Week 1 matchup against a talented and motivated foe. Big Ticket: Take the Tennessee Titans. |
|||||||
09-10-17 | Eagles v. Redskins | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#459) Last year, Washington was the better of these two teams. This year, the pendulum has clearly shifted – the Redskins are the likely last place squad in the NFC East, while the Eagles are an ascending team on the rise. That makes this near pick ‘em price range for the Week 1 matchup a clear choice for this bettor – the Eagles are worthy of support in a game I expect them to win. The Redskins have all kinds of issues on offense. Statistically, Kirk Cousins has been a Top 10 QB in each of the last two seasons, but he lost his top two receivers in the offseason; Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. I’m not convinced that Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson can fill those big shoes. This team averaged 6.4 yards per play on offense last year, #2 in the NFL. They were also #2 in yards per pass attempt and in the top quartile at yards per rush. Yet despite those impressive offensive numbers, the Skins still weren’t a playoff team. And the only way those offensive numbers are trending in 2017 is down! Defensively, this squad has major problems. They were bottom quartile of the NFL in yards per play allowed last year, struggling all season to generate a pass rush and to stop the run. The defensive line has been completely rebuilt, with three new starters in 2017. And it’s not like the Redskins enjoy any sort of tremendous home field edge; a team that has only enjoyed one winning season on this field since 2012. The Eagles made a handful of ‘win now’ moves in August, most notably acquiring starting cornerback Ronald Darby from Buffalo. After getting swept by the Redskins in each of the last two seasons, this game truly is circled on Philly’s schedule – they’re clearly the superior team heading into the campaign; worthy of a wager in a pointspread range where a SU win equates with an ATS victory. Take the Eagles. |
|||||||
09-09-17 | UTSA v. Baylor -17 | 17-10 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Baylor (#352) Any college football coach will tell you that the single biggest ‘improvement’ week of the entire season is between Week 1 and Week 2 of the season. These teams don’t play preseason games, and there’s often a ‘getting the rust out’ element in Week 1. Especially when a team plays poorly in their debut, there’s all kinds of film study, so guys can learn from their mistakes. When a team loses outright as 34 point favorites, like Baylor did on opening day, two things are inevitable consequences. First, the markets will devalue a team like Baylor, with a first year head coach trying to stabilize a formerly elite program that has now lost seven consecutive regular season games. And secondly, that team gets a real wakeup call. Squads like Baylor tend to bounce back STRONG the following week, especially against lesser competition like the UTSA Roadrunners. Matt Rhule certainly expects a strong bounceback this week. “You learn more from a loss.” QB Anu Solomon was just fine in his Bears debut, a guy with 27 collegiate starts at Arizona under his belt. His receivers had the dropsies last week; not likely to be a long term problem for this talented corps of wideouts. And, perhaps most importantly, Baylor will get some much needed help for their secondary as injured starters Davion Hall and Jameson Houston – their two best defenders against the pass – are both expected to return to the lineup after missing last week’s game. So we’ve got a motivated and talented favorite playing with a real chip on their shoulders this week; a clear bet-on situation. Baylor has been dismissed in the betting markets enough to offer tremendous value in this pointspread range. And their opponent, Texas- San Antonio, lacks the type of explosive, skill position talent to put the Bears back on their heels. The last time the Roadrunners were in a situation like this one, they lost 69-14 at Oklahoma State in 2015. And the fact that UTSA’s game against Houston last week was cancelled due to Hurricane Harvey is particularly problematic – the favorite here has already worked the rust out, but the underdog hasn’t. Expect a blowout. Take Baylor. |
|||||||
09-09-17 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 72 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Missouri – South Carolina OVER (#373-374) I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Missouri games can’t be totaled in the low 70’s – period. The markets are still being influenced by the injury plagued back half of the season last year, when the Tigers failed to reach 30 points four times in their last five games of the campaign. That was then. This is now. Missouri had 815 total yards of offense in their opener against Missouri State, averaging an NCAA best 10.7 yards per snap. They did not push the pace in that contest, because they didn’t need to push the pace against the likes of Missouri State. The markets have reacted to Missouri not pushing the pace in the opener, because that’s what markets do, especially early in the season, when meaningful stats are hard to come by. That’s why we’re looking at a total in the low 70’s instead of one in the 80’s – where every single Missouri game needs to be totaled for 2017. Missouri improved from 13 points and 281 yards per game in 2015 to 31 points and 501 yards per game last year; a massive improvement in Barry Odom’s first year on the job. This year, the Tigers return all five starting offensive linemen from last year, QB Drew Lock who threw for 521 yards and seven TD’s last week, and a bevy of skill position talent surrounding Lock. Facing a South Carolina defense with a rebuilt front seven that allowed more than 500 yards last week, I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Missouri hangs 40+ against the Gamecocks this week. But for all of the offensive improvements for the Tigers, their defense is still most assuredly a bottom tier unit. Against Missouri State last week – a team that finished dead last in the Missouri Valley Conference in total offense and points scored last year – Missouri allowed 43 points and 492 yards, missing tackles again and again. South Carolina retuned ten starters on offense from last year themselves, with their best offensive line in the last decade. Returning QB Jake Bentley threw for three TD’s last week against a much better defense than this one….. Last year’s meeting was on pace to be a real shootout; 21-21 following the first drive of the third quarter. But in the second half, three long drives ended with missed field goals and two more ended with interceptions in the opponent’s territory. Both offenses are well ahead of where they were last year in terms of execution and efficiency and the pace here should be frenetic! Big Ticket: Take the OVER! |
|||||||
09-09-17 | Auburn +6 v. Clemson | 6-14 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#377) When Cam Newton was the QB at Auburn for a single season, the Tigers went 14-0 and won the national championship. Newton, obviously, was an elite QB talent, who brought his NFL team (Carolina) to the Super Bowl. In 2013, Auburn reached the national title game again, losing (but covering the spread in a three point loss) to Florida State with Nick Marshall as their starting QB. Marshall was no NFL prospect, but the rest of the roster was good enough to carry this team all the way through their brutal SEC slate into a championship tilt under Gus Malzahn. Since Marshall graduated, Auburn’s QB play has been nothing short of abysmal. Sean White and Jeremy Johnson were just awful, forcing Malzahn to dial his offense waaaaaaay back. That’s a big part of the reason why Auburn went just 7-6 and 8-5 in the last two years. Despite truly bottom tier QB play, the Tigers didn’t crash and burn, like South Carolina last year. No, there was enough talent on this roster to beat the likes of LSU, Ole Miss, Louisville and Texas A&M, among others, during that span. Auburn still has front line talent all over the field, particularly on the defensive side of the football where, quite literally, every single starter has an NFL upside. It’s a similar story with their skill position talent on offense – lots of guys who are going to be playing on Sundays in a year or two. The Tigers offensive line returns 106 career starts, an elite unit. Even against a team like Clemson, Auburn has the talent to match up. In fact, Auburn matched up pretty darn well with Clemson last year when they met on opening day. Auburn held Clemson to a season low in both points and yards, despite facing an elite talent like Deshaun Watson. And this year, Auburn’s got a quarterback! I know that Jarrett Stidham wasn’t flawless in his debut last week vs. Georgia Southern. But make no mistake about it – Malzahn didn’t open up the playbook last week AND Stidham got the rust out after sitting all of last year. This is the best QB they’ve had since Cam Newton and I expect that to show on Saturday Night. Clemson is most assuredly still elite. But the defending national champs went 7-1 in games decided by a TD or less last year, despite the presence of Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, Wayne Gallman, Cordrea Tankersley, Carlos Watkins and Jordan Leggett, all of whom play for pay on Sundays now. Clemson will be hard pressed to win nearly every close game again this year, and it’s surely worth noting that despite national championship level talent, Clemson has not produced a profit as a home favorite in either of the last two seasons. Handicapping 101 says to beware of a team that looked too good against lesser competition on national TV the previous week. Clemson destroyed Kent – a true bottom feeder – and looked good doing it. I’m not convinced that new starting QB Kelly Bryant is going to have anywhere near the same level of success this week against a different class of defense. Take the points here, but be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline – Auburn is live to win this one in SU fashion. Take Auburn. |
|||||||
09-09-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Rutgers -5 | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Rutgers (#312) Rutgers was as weak as any Power 5 conference school in the country last year – including hopeless Kansas, Purdue, Virginia or Illinois. A team that had been to four bowls in the previous five seasons dropped to 2-10 in Chris Ash’s first year on the job. The record doesn’t even tell the full story. Rutgers lost games 58-0, 78-0, 49-0 and 39-0 in 2016, completely non-competitive for extended stretches of the season. A drop-off like that requires a MAJOR power ratings adjustment, and by the end of the season the Scarlet Knights were power rated in the betting markets like a Kansas or an Illinois; true bottom feeders. But this program isn’t hopeless, by any stretch of the imagination. Last year’s debacle was all about a new coach trying to install new schemes with a roster that was riddled with injuries from top to bottom. From an opening power rating standpoint, the markets adjusted Rutgers up a notch or two in the offseason, but not much more than that. And even after the Scarlet Knights were competitive in defeat as four touchdown home underdogs to Top 10 Washington, the markets still haven’t made any significant adjustment for a team that is at least two touchdowns better right now than they were last November. All the quotes coming out of New Brunswick this week have been positive, a team focused on snapping a losing streak that dates back to beating New Mexico last September….which was the last time the Scarlet Knights were favored. It’s surely worth noting that Rutgers has actually been pretty good as chalk, winning four out of five in that role over the past two seasons, despite their struggles in Big 10 play. Offensive coordinator Jerry Kill was extremely conservative last week against Washington’s playmaking defense. The Eastern Michigan defense they’ll face this week is of a slightly different caliber. And the quotes coming from the offense were very positive, especially concerning the offensive line. Senior running back Robert Martin: “The offensive line played real good. They pass blocked real good. They were just hungry. All camp our coaches were pushing them, saying we're a line of scrimmage team, it starts up front. They bought in this whole camp. They continue to get better and you saw that.” Offensive line coach AJ Blazek: “The better they get, the more confident our quarterbacks get and it makes it a lot easier to stand in there and throw it around." Rutgers hasn’t won a game since last September, and this is a legitimate step down in class for a program that is HUNGRY for victory. For Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, it’s a relatively meaningless non-conference tilt for a squad with absolutely no track record of beating Power 5 conference schools on any field. Let’s not forget what happened to the Eagles last year, following a surprisingly comfortable Week 1 home win (just like they enjoyed against Charlotte last week). Chris Creighton’s squad went to miserable Missouri (4-8 last year) and lost by 40……. Take Rutgers. |
|||||||
09-08-17 | Twins -112 v. Royals | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#973) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting Minnesota yesterday, BEFORE they rallied in the ninth inning against struggling KC closer Kelvin Herrera last night. ‘There’s positive momentum in Minnesota again after the Twins snapped a three game skid with a win in Tampa Bay yesterday. Infielder Eduardo Escobar following yesterday’s win: "We leave here with a positive mind. The offense struggled in the first two games here and we didn't hit well. Knowing that we won and the offense woke up again, I think, gives us momentum to go to Kansas City."’ The Twins have been major moneymakers on the highway all season long, ranked behind only elites Houston and Washington in road profitability. Erwin Santana has been a major reason why; 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA in 13 previous road starts; worthy of support in this near pick ‘em price range today. Meanwhile, KC starter Ian Kennedy has an ERA of 6.00 in four previous starts against the Twins this year, and an 0-7 record with a 6.71 ERA pitching at Kaufmann Stadium this year. Given the KC bullpen concerns, I have no hesitation riding Minnesota to victory once again on Friday Night. Take the Twins. |
|||||||
09-07-17 | Twins -109 v. Royals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#915) It’s been a crazy week for KC emergency fill-in starter Sam Gaviglio. He was in Vegas with the Mariners AAA affiliate for a weekend series with the Las Vegas 51’s when he was suddenly picked up off the waiver wire by the Royals, brought up to the big leagues and told to prepare for a start against the Twins today. Gaviglio is no ace in the making. The 27 year old made 11 starts in Seattle earlier this season before getting sent back down to the minors. One of those starts came against the Twins lineup he’ll see again today. He allowed three home runs in 5.1 innings of work in that contest. KC manager Ned Yost isn’t looking for miracles: "We liked his ability to throw strikes. He's a ground-ball guy who works down in the zone…..If he can get us through the fifth and into the sixth, it would be a great job." That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. There’s positive momentum in Minnesota again after the Twins snapped a three game skid with a win in Tampa Bay yesterday. Infielder Eduardo Escobar following yesterday’s win: "We leave here with a positive mind. The offense struggled in the first two games here and we didn't hit well. Knowing that we won and the offense woke up again, I think, gives us momentum to go to Kansas City." The Twins have been major moneymakers on the highway all season long, ranked behind only elites Houston and Washington in road profitability. Starter Kyle Gibson certainly falls into that grouping as well, with an ERA more than a full run lower on the highway than it’s been at home. The Twins have won all three of his previous starts against the Royals this season; primed to do it again tonight! Take the Twins. |
|||||||
09-06-17 | Angels v. A's OVER 9.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Take the LA Angels – Oakland OVER (#967-968) The Angels lineup is on fire right now, pounding out 8, 10, 9, 7, 6, 11 and 8 runs in their last seven ballgames, showing much more ‘big inning’ capability since acquiring Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips last week. And the A’s lineup has shown plenty of explosiveness as well, pounding out 16 runs in the first two games of this series, producing six runs or more in eight of their last 13 contests while going 8-2 to the Over in their last ten. Clearly, these are two lineups hitting the ball very well right now. Neither starter is trustworthy today. Tyler Skaggs has been lit up for 16 runs in just 12.1 innings of work over his last three starts, clearly still not right following a three month stint on the DL. The A’s have hit him hard in both previous outings against Skaggs this year. Oakland’s Sean Manaea allowed six runs in 3.1 innings of work in his last start against LA. He didn’t make it out for the third inning in his first start against LA this year. Neither hurler is a likely candidate for an ace level showing today. While the heat wave in the Bay Area over the weekend has cooled off somewhat, it’s still warm today, with a steady wind blowing out to right field – excellent hitter conditions. And, key to this total, both bullpens are completely spent! The Angels have seen six of their last seven starters fail to finish the fourth inning. The A’s only got one starter out of the fifth during that same seven game span. That leaves ample opportunity for some late inning shenanigans in this one, in a game that has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
|||||||
09-05-17 | Diamondbacks +115 v. Dodgers | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#911) My clients and I cashed a $2 underdog winner betting against the Dodgers on Sunday, and there’s absolutely no reason to think that LA is going to snap their skid tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last anti-Dodgers write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The betting markets don’t seem to be adjusting enough to factor in the Dodgers mentality here in September. And with LA suffering through their first slump since April, it’s not hard to make a case for betting AGAINST Dave Roberts squad. “Multiple reports out of LA have the Dodgers far more concerned with getting their guys healthy for the postseason than in setting any kind of wins record. This is a brutal scheduling stretch – 17 games in 16 days, starting with Saturday’s doubleheader. Roberts is insistent that he’s going to get his young guys ample playing time in an effort to determine who can help in the postseason. Everybody is on a pitch count; anybody with a bruise will be sitting out. Roberts has made it very clear – the next couple of weeks are for getting everybody healthy and assessing the postseason roster, the final two weeks are for getting them ‘sharp’.” No surprise, then, that the Dodgers have lost nine of their last ten despite being favored in every contest. They’ve been held to two runs or less six times during that span. And it certainly won’t get any easier for this slumping lineup tonight against Zack Greinke, who mowed down this lineup in Arizona last week, his second consecutive quality start against LA since the All Star Break. Arizona is the hottest team in baseball, winners of twelve straight. JD Martinez off his four home run performance last night: “I think everyone is on a positive vibe right now. Everyone feels good. Everyone is excited to come to the ballpark….I think Archie (Bradley) said it best today, he comes in and said he walks by the training room and guys are getting exercise and getting work in and you walk by the weight room and it's packed. Everyone's getting work in. You come in the clubhouse and no one is in here. It shows the vibe and what everyone is thinking about right now. Everyone wants to do well, and everyone wants to run away with this thing." Arizona blasted Hyun-Jin Ryu in Arizona last week, his single worst outing of the season. No surprise if the D-backs do it again tonight in a classic ‘ride the hot & fade the cold’ setting. Take the Diamondbacks. |
|||||||
09-04-17 | Angels v. A's OVER 9.5 | 11-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Oakland – LA Angels OVER (#971-972) Parker Bridwell faced the A’s in his last start and it wasn’t pretty. Bridwell got roughed up early and often, allowing seven earned runs before getting pulled without getting an out in the fourth inning. Chris Smith faced the Angels in his last start as well. That outing wasn’t particularly pretty either – Smith, too, allowed seven runs without getting out of the fourth inning. In this short turnaround rematch, I’m not expecting either starter to be capable of mowing down opposing hitters. Both opposing lineups have an OPS of better than 1.000 against the starters they’ll face today. The Angels lineup, in particular, is on fire right now, pounding out 8, 10, 9, 7 and 6 runs in their last five games, showing much more ‘big inning’ capability since acquiring Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips last week. And the A’s have shown plenty of explosiveness as well, pounding out six runs or more in six of their last eleven contests while cashing six Overs in their last eight ballgames. There’s been a heat wave in the Bay Area, and it’s still very warm today, with a steady wind blowing out to right field – excellent hitter conditions. And, key to this total, both bullpens are completely spent! The Angels have seen four of their last five starters fail to finish the fourth inning. The A’s only got one starter out of the fifth during that same five game span. That leaves ample opportunity for some late inning shenanigans in this one, in a game that has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
|||||||
09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA OVER 56.5 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 43 m | Show | |
Take UCLA – Texas A&M OVER (#211-212) We’ve got two QB’s worth betting on in this ballgame and a couple of defenses with some major question marks in the equation. Last year, Bruins QB Josh Rosen got battered by Texas A&M’s defensive front, with #1 overall draft choice Myles Garrett and his counterpart on the other side Daeshon Hall (3rd round pick for Carolina) harassing him to the tune of five sacks and three interceptions. UCLA kept settling for short field goals, unable to reach the end zone until the fourth quarter. But when all was said and done, the two teams combined for 55 points, more than 50 first downs and more than 900 yards of total offense. This year, the two offenses are a good notch or two better than last years. Rosen was hurt last year, eventually sitting out the back half of the season. Now he’s fully healthy and loaded with skill position weapons surrounding him – Jim Mora has recruited well in LA. Rosen has #1 overall draft choice upside, and UCLA’s statistical profile from last year gives plenty of weight to the Bruins late season failures without him, held to 14 points or less in three of their last four games. And from all indications, Rosen is looking quite comfortable running new coordinator Jedd Fisch’s offense 9at Michigan L2 years). Meanwhile, for the Aggies, Garrett and Hall have departed, leaving that formerly elite pass rush down a good notch or two (or three) heading into 2017. Kevin Sumlin got this job because of his remarkable success creating and running the Houston Cougars offense, an offense that averaged a truly remarkable 49 points and 599 yards per game in his final year on the job. And the Aggies have averaged at least 35 points per game in four of Sumlin’s five years on the job here in College Station. Redshirt frosh QB Nick Starkel beat out some quality competition to win the starting job. Sumlin’s had success with redshirt frosh QB’s before (some kid named Johnny Manziel stands out in that regard). Starkel has a solid OL to work behind and plenty of skill position talent as well, most notably WR/ kick returner extraordinaire Christian Kirk. Expect no shortage of big plays in this game, a shootout primed to fly Over the total. Take the Over. |
|||||||
09-03-17 | Dodgers v. Padres +205 | 4-6 | Win | 205 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Take San Diego (#912) The betting markets don’t seem to be adjusting enough to factor in the Dodgers mentality here in September. And with LA suffering through their first slump since April, it’s not hard to make a case for betting AGAINST Dave Roberts squad in this inflated price range on Sunday. Multiple reports out of LA have the Dodgers far more concerned with getting their guys healthy for the postseason than in setting any kind of wins record. This is a brutal scheduling stretch – 17 games in 16 days, starting with yesterday’s doubleheader. Roberts is insistent that he’s going to get his young guys ample playing time in an effort to determine who can help in the postseason. Everybody is on a pitch count; anybody with a bruise will be sitting out. Roberts has made it very clear – the next couple of weeks are for getting everybody healthy and assessing the postseason roster, the final two weeks are for getting them ‘sharp’. No surprise, then, that the Dodgers have lost seven of their last eight despite being favored in every contest. They’ve been held to two runs or less five times during that span, and lost three times as favorites of near -200 or higher. I understand Alex Wood is having a remarkable season. I also understand that Wood just spent ten days on the DL and won’t be eating up innings here. San Diego has some rare positive momentum, winners of four of their last five on this homestand following yesterday’s sweep and 13 of their last 20 at Petco. The Padres bats are heating up, pounding out five runs or more in all of their wins on the current homestand. Starter Jhoulys Chacin has been dynamite in San Diego all year: 7-3 with a .185 ERA and a 180 batting average against. In three starts against the Dodgers since an ugly outing to open the season, Chacin has allowed a grand total of two runs. Live dog here! Take the Padres. |
|||||||
09-02-17 | Troy v. Boise State OVER 63 | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Boise – Troy OVER (#207-208) For the better part of a decade, Boise State had a truly elite home field advantage on the blue turf. All that has changed since Chris Peterson left town for Washington; leaving Bryan Harsin in charge of the program. Harsin has guided the Broncos to a 2-10 ATS mark as home chalk over the past two seasons; a pointspread disaster area. Boise’s recent ATS failures are not because the offense has fallen off, averaging 39 points per game in 2015 and 34 ppg last year. But the Broncos defense has declined fairly dramatically in recent years. The Broncos allowed 4.3 yards per carry last season, their worst in the last decade (and I didn’t go back and look any futher). And the defense allowed opposing QB’s to complete more than 60% of their passes against them in 2016, while notching only 29 sacks. Only once during this past decade did Boise have fewer sacks or allow opposing QB’s to complete a higher percentage of passes than they did last year. They’ll start three true sophomores in the secondary on Saturday; all first time starters. All of which is problematic for Boise State’s defense in their opener against Troy. The Broncos defense doesn’t look any better this year than it did last year – Harsin simply isn’t bringing in the same level of recruits that Peterson did during his tenure in Boise. And that’s bad news against Troy senior QB Brandon Silvers, who threw for 23 TD’s while completing 64% of his passes last year. Silvers has a trio of returning senior starters at wide receiver; a group with special chemistry – this team returns 98.7% of last year’s offensive production, tops in the country. This team is more than capable of trading touchdowns for extended stretches of this ballgame. But Troy’s defense is even weaker than Boise’s. The Trojans graduated five of their top seven tacklers, including a pair of solid linemen and five of their top six LB’s. That’s bad news against returning QB Brett Rypien, back for his third season as the starter for the Broncos, and the solid bevy of skill position talent surrounding him. Look for these two ‘bet-on’ QB’s to trade touchdowns throughout, sending this game Over the total with room to spare. Take the Over. |
|||||||
09-02-17 | Wyoming +11.5 v. Iowa | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#155) Iowa has been burning their backers money in roles like this one for years; a team with a track record of ATS failure in Week 1 under Kirk Ferentz. The results don’t lie. My numbers show Iowa on a 2-10 ATS run as Week 1 chalk. They failed to cover against Miami-O in this role last year and lost outright to Northern Illinois in their previous try against an FBS foe. And given the limitations of the Hawkeyes offense this year, I’m not convinced in the slightest that the Hawkeyes are capable of covering double digits against Wyoming in early start action on Saturday. The Hawkeyes are not a team that is poised to build big margins and hold them. My numbers show Iowa at 10-20 ATS as home favorites over the past five seasons. They’ve been moneymakers as underdogs and moneymakers as road chalk, but asking this team wo win by double digits at Kinnick Stadium has been an exercise in futility. Don’t expect that to change Week 1, especially given the Hawkeyes weak corps of skill position talent. Make no mistake about it: Iowa is weak in the ‘skill position talent’ category; a team that lacks explosive playmakers. Sophomore QB Nathan Stanley won the job in camp and Hawkeyes new, first time offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz (Kirk’s son) has installed a run heavy offense. Expect a heavy dose of ‘ground and pound’ for the Hawkeyes in this one; not a gameplan to build big margins and hold them. The Hawkeyes also have a legitimate problem on the defensive side of the football. They lost a pair of starters in the secondary to graduation, and lost their best returnee, Brandon Snyder, to a torn ACL in the spring. His replacement, Manny Rugamba, has been suspended for the opener. Leading pass rusher Jaleel Johnson is playing for the Minnesota Vikings this year, leaving the Hawkeyes lacking the defensive playmakers to slow down Josh Allen and the explosive Wyoming passing game. Allen is likely to be a first round draft choice next year, something I don’t write very often when it comes to Wyoming quarterbacks. Iowa CB Josh Jackson knows what he’s up against: “He does things a lot of quarterbacks can’t do. On tape, you see him make plays all over the field. He has an accurate arm and a strong arm. They aren’t afraid to throw deep. He’s impressive.’’ Allen, talking about his improved decision making from last year: “There were times last season when I threw into triple coverage or threw the ball across my body when there was no need to. I’m working to make better decisions and become better that way.” Wyoming has the superior playmaking talent here, which means the backdoor is wide open…. assuming the Cowboys don’t already have the lead when the fourth quarter begins. Live dog here! Take Wyoming. |
|||||||
09-01-17 | Boston College -3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 23-20 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Boston College (#149) Steve Addazio has taken BC to bowl games in three of his four season on the job with the Eagles in large part because Boston College has been remarkably adept at winning games like this one, where they step down in class. Last year is a prime example. The Eagles showed no ability to step up in class whatsoever in 2016. This was not a particularly dynamic offense, by any stretch of the imagination, averaging just 20 points per game for the season. But when you take a closer look, inside the numbers, you’ll find that BC got clobbered by the elites, losing by a combined margin of 202-24 against the likes of Clemson, Florida State, Louisville and Virginia Tech – the four best teams they faced. BC can’t handle elite talent in the trenches, nor do they have the defensive speed to hang tough with elite skill position players. But when BC was laying points against weaker foes in 2016, they did just fine. The Eagles laid 16.5 to UMass and won by 19. They laid 34 to Wagner and won by 32. They laid 18 to Buffalo and won by 32. And they laid 8 to UConn, winning that game by 30. Taking big points with BC in 2016 was a disaster, but laying points with the Eagles was a profitable endeavor. So what’s different for 2017? Northern Illinois is weaker, for one! The Huskies have been on a downward slide in the MAC pecking order, with their win total declining from 12 to 11 to 8 to 5 in Rod Carey’s first four years on the job. Now the Huskies are tasked with replacing their top playmaker on offense, Kenny Golladay, who has turned heads throughout the preseason for the Detroit Lions, as well as their starting QB. Without a single senior on the offensive line, the Huskies will be hard pressed to hang tough with the Eagles in the trenches. And a Huskies defense that allowed more than 200 yards per game on the ground last year isn’t primed to bully the Eagles in the trenches on defense either. Look for BC to wear this team down and take control of the game by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. Take Boston College. |
|||||||
08-31-17 | UL-Monroe v. Memphis -25.5 | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#138) Rule #1 for Week 1 of the college football season? KISS: Keep it simple, stupid! And this game falls right into that category, clear as day. Louisiana – Monroe was a true bottom feeder in Matt Viator’s first season on the job in 2016. They did win four games – three against fellow bottom feeding Sun Belt squads, one against a 1-AA squad – but were completely non-competitive when stepping out of conference. They lost 59-17 at Oklahoma, 58-7 at Auburn and even 59-17 against New Mexico. And there’s no reason to expect anything different as the War Hawks step up in class again here, for their season opener. Coach Viator knows what’s coming for his undersized and relatively slow defense on Thursday Night: “You know looking at it is preparing for the no-huddle [offense]. We do some of it in practice. But, you're trying to coach and teach and sometimes I never really know if we're quite ready for that, to be honest. And, that concerns me." Viator has another major stumbling block here – nobody won the QB derby in camp. “Caleb Evans will start the game at quarterback Thursday night against Memphis. Garrett Smith will come in quick..." That duo did not exactly set the world on fire last year and the fact that neither guy played well enough to win the job in camp is certainly an issue moving forward. With both guys splitting reps with the first team in practice, neither guy has been able to develop the necessary chemistry with his receiving corps to even think about trading points with a team like Memphis. Make no mistake about it – Memphis is loaded with the type of skill position talent that UL Monroe can’t cover. Twice in the last three years, the Tigers have opened the season with 63 point outputs. With QB Riley Ferguson returning for his senior year, 103 career starts returning on the offensive line and a bevy of skill position weapons to work with, the Tigers have a solid shot to have this spread covered by halftime. Expect a blowout! Take Memphis. |
|||||||
08-31-17 | Titans +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tennessee (#125) The coaches quotes tell us all we need to know for this ‘meaningless’ preseason finale. Titans head coach Mike Mularkey was not amused with Tennessee’s poor showing last week at home against the Bears. His quotes speak volumes about the intensity level we can expect from the road underdog tonight: “I think they’re frustrated. At least, I got that impression in the locker room afterward. We made too many mistakes, again, the Bears didn’t. We didn’t play well enough. They did. And in this league you can’t afford to do what we did against a good team that’s playing well.” Mularkey, talking about the Titans gameplan for tonight: “Everybody will play this game…..I don't know what the difference between the fourth game and the third game is. There's always that concern. You want to go in healthy to that opener, and right now we're pretty healthy. I have a veteran staff, I trust their opinions……Right now, this is what we did last year. We got some work done." It’s surely worth noting that last year the Titans won their Week 4 preseason game by double digits as underdogs on the road against a playoff team….. And the Titans are also taking the short turnaround between Sunday’s game and this road tilt very seriously as well. Linebacker Derrick Morgan: “It’s really a dress rehearsal for our Sunday game and our Thursday game, because it’s the same type of schedule, so it’s good for our guys to kind of get in that game week mentality with the season less than two weeks away, so we’re ready for that.” Contrast what Mularkey is talking about with this ‘laid back’ quote from Chiefs head coach Andy Reid: “We’ll go ahead and let Patrick start this week. Most likely, the twos will be taking that group along with him and then Tyler (Bray) will also play. I can’t tell you exactly how long I’m going to go with those guys and Joel (Stave) will get into the game also at the quarterback spot. And everybody else kind of follows that as we go.” Reid certainly doesn’t have a ‘bet-on’ track record for games like this one. The points here are a gift! Big Ticket: Take the Titans |
|||||||
08-31-17 | Rams v. Packers -3.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Green Bay (#102) Here’s the quote from Rams first year, first time head coach Sean McVay, when asked why Jared Goff isn’t going to play at Green Bay this week: “We’ve made the decision that we were going to get a chance to evaluate the guys that we’re not projecting as starters and get them an opportunity to compete against Green Bay. That will offer an opportunity as well for our starters to kind of start getting in the mindset of preparing for that Indianapolis game.” That’s most assuredly a ‘bet-against’ quote, if I’ve ever seen one. Whenever a coach talks about evaluating depth, and pointing towards a game the following week, it’s a major red flag. Backup Sean Mannion threw 29 passes in relief of Goff last week – the Rams coaching staff has already seen what he can do. LA has ‘no-show’ written all over them this week. The Packers won’t be playing starters either, but both QB’s on the field on Thursday have an excellent track record here in August. Best of all, the two QB’s are locked in a real battle for the third string job – this is meaningful football for both of them. Both Taysom Hill and Joe Callahan have shown tremendous playmaking ability – Hill showing his dual threat capability and Callahan his improvisational skills. Two bet-on QB’s who can create are worth laying points with against a team primed for a no-show on Thursday Night. Take the Packers. |
|||||||
08-30-17 | Mets v. Reds -131 | 2-0 | Loss | -131 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#908) The Mets are pretty hopeless these days, just 10-23 in their last 33 ballgames, 4-12 in their las 16. They traded away most of the healthy productive veterans that they had at the trading deadline. And with the likes of Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto and David Wright still languishing on the DL, this is not a particularly potent lineup these days, to put it mildly. Jose Reyes played left field for the first time in his career last night, misplaying a fly ball that resulted in a Billy Hamilton double last night. Expect manager Terry Collins to continue playing around with his lineup this evening. The Mets pitching staff is in even worse shape. Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Matz and Zack Wheeler are all on the DL, which has led to Rafael Montero being a starter. Montero isn’t 2-9 by accident. The Mets needed him to come out of the bullpen on Sunday, taking away his normal rest and rhythm. And it’s surely worth noting that Montero got only one out in the four batters he faced in that game. Behind him, the Mets bullpen is in tatters after allowing another seven runs last night – none of their last four starters has made it through the fifth inning. Cinci came into this series with a real chip on their collective shoulders, having lost a whopping 14 consecutive games against the Mets dating back to 2014 including eight straight at home. That streak ended with a resounding ‘thud’ last night, and there’s little reason to think that the Mets will start a new streak today. Cinci’s Homer Bailey was pulled after allowing only one hit in three innings against the Cubs in his last start, dealing with a shoulder issue. He’s had two extra days off prior to this start, and he sounds ready, talking about the final month of the season: “I want to finish this thing up right.“ Bailey has had six truly awful starts this year, allowing six runs or more in all of those games – hence his truly ugly 7.99 ERA. But he’s also been light’s out more often than not, allowing two runs or less in six of his last nine trips to the hill. With extra rest, facing a weak lineup, I’m expecting the ‘good’ Bailey tonight. Take the Reds. |
|||||||
08-29-17 | Cardinals -124 v. Brewers | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#957) The Brewers haven’t won a season series against St Louis since 2011. I don’t expect that to change here in 2017. The Cardinals enter this series 2.5 games back of Milwaukee in the Wild Card race, despite suffering through a rough week last week when their bats went cold, losing six out of eight. But they sure seem focused for this one after a much needed off day on Monday. Cardinals manager Mike Matheny: “We have to continue to push and think this is the most important game of the year. We can't be more urgent than that. If you're playing this one like it is the game, the one that's deciding for our club, and if you truly go about it with your preparation, your concentration and your intensity, there's not another level." The Brewers are a tad bit ‘fat & happy’ coming off a series win against the Dodgers and a successful West Coast road trip. But they’re not hitting right now either, held to 3, 3, 1, 2, 4 and 0 runs in their last six ballgames. That’s bad news against St Louis phenom Luke Weaver, coming off his most dominant big league start yet: seven innings of shutout ball with 10 strikeouts and only four baserunners allowed. Weaver has mowed down the Brewers twice already in his young career: two quality starts, 16 K’s vs. only three runs allowed. Current Brewers have hit just .163 against him with a .518 OPS. Matt Garza doesn’t have that same kind of track record against the Cardinals, although he did shut them down earlier this month. Garza’s previous start against St Louis wasn’t pretty; the Brewers aren’t winning behind him (2-5 in his starts since the All Star Break) and Garza isn’t eating up innings, failing to make it out of the sixth in each of those seven previous post-break starts. The wiseguys have been pounding St Louis in early betting action for good reason! Take the Cardinals. |
|||||||
08-28-17 | Red Sox +108 v. Blue Jays | 6-5 | Win | 108 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#913) The money has been flowing on Toronto in early betting action for Monday, turning the Blue Jays from underdogs into favorites. At a ‘plus price’ return, the Red Sox are a clear choice for this bettor tonight! The Red Sox have owned the Blue Jays all season, including a 5-1 mark against Toronto right here at the Rogers Centre. Starter Drew Pomeranz has been a big part of the equation, allowing only one earned run in 12.1 innings of work against Toronto while beating them in both previous starts. Current Blue Jays have hit just .179 with an OPS of just .546 against Pomeranz in their careers. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen is in decent shape following extended outings from Doug Fister and Eduardo Rodriguez over the past two days. The last place Blue Jays aren’t making any late season surge, just 2-7 in their last nine ballgames. Their bullpen is shattered, a team that has allowed six runs or more seven times during that nine game slump. Their lineup is cold, held to two runs or less three times in their last four ballgames. And starter Marcus Stroman has allowed 16 hits and nine runs in just 11.1 innings of work against the Red Sox this season. Stroman has been pitching at full intensity since the World Baseball Classic back in early March; showing signs of wearing down over the hot summer months. Wrong team favored here! Take the Red Sox. |
|||||||
08-27-17 | 49ers v. Vikings UNDER 41.5 | 31-32 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – San Francisco UNDER (#281-282) The Vikings first string offense hasn’t worked at all in the preseason. With Sam Bradford behind center, Minnesota has generated a grand total of one field goal in six possessions, picking up right where they left off last year. Minnesota’s rebuilt offensive line is struggling to open up holes in the running game, and Bradford isn’t exactly lighting up opposing defenders downfield. Behind Bradford, with Case Keenum safe as the #2 QB, we could see some Mitch Leidner at QB, a non-drafted rookie who was just signed off the waiver wire following Taylor Heinicke’s injury last week. The Vikings offense is not primed to put up points in bunches once again here, already 2-0 to the Under in preseason. The 49ers offense is a ‘work in progress’ to put it mildly. They generated a grand total of 12 first downs and seven offensive points last week, blasted at home by Denver. And this quote from veteran left tackle Joe Staley doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence in Kyle Shanahan’s brand new offense moving forwards: “I think one of the things that even I wasn’t expecting was how detailed you have to be in everything as far as the run game. Aiming points. Everyone’s got to be on the same page — running backs, linemen, receivers, everybody, for it to work.” And it’s surely worth noting that the 49ers QB play has not been pretty thusfar, not likely to get much better against a top tier Vikings defense. Take the Under. |
|||||||
08-26-17 | Rice v. Stanford OVER 51 | 7-62 | Win | 100 | 59 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Stanford – Rice OVER (#297-298) Rice doesn’t get many stops against teams like Stanford, even thousands of miles from home in Australia. The Owls certainly couldn’t stop Stanford when they faced ‘em last year, allowing a whopping 373 rushing yards in a 41-17 victory; one of eight games in which the Owls allowed 38 or more points. Rice’s defense hasn’t gotten noticeably bigger or faster in the offseason. Stanford has nine of their top ten offensive linemen back. Don’t expect many Cardinal punts in this one. When a team like Rice gets to play their opener on ESPN against a Top 15 foe, one thing is certain – they’re not going to quit. If Rice is down 42-3 heading into the fourth quarter, you’d better believe that offense is going to hit the field on their next drive looking for a touchdown; not running out the clock. Head coac David Bailiff is starting a frosh QB with some talent in Todd Glaesmann, whose brother is in the Chicago Cubs system ; a solid athlete. The Owls, too, return a loaded offensive line with 92 previous career starts. And they’ve got a couple of legit playmakers in Kylan Granson and Aaron Cephus, both healthy and primed to make something happen on opening night. Take the Over. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.