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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-17 | Diamondbacks +107 v. Brewers | 4-2 | Win | 107 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#907) My clients and I lost playing the Over between Arizona and Milwaukee last night, as the Brewers bats were completely stymied in a 4-0 shutout loss. Now that the once hot Brewers bats have finally cooled off, there’s no comparison between these two teams right now – expect to get it back with a ‘plus price’ return on the D-backs here. Arizona is surging, winners of four straight and nine of their last ten. Starter Zack Godley has thrown three consecutive gems, allowing only 13 hits and five runs while pitching into the seventh inning each time, and he’s been able to keep the ball on the ground, avoiding the gopher ball. Behind him, the D-backs bullpen got a much needed break last night thanks to Robbie Ray’s seven shutout innings. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has lost four straight – their longest losing streak of the season, including the first three on this homestand, scoring only seven runs in the process. Manager Craig Counsell is trying to keep everybody calm, but he knows what’s up: “It's a little bit of adversity. That's all right. It's part of the season.” They just got Ryan Braun back in the lineup, but he re-strained the same hamstring last night, expected to be sidelined again; a big loss for this suddenly struggling lineup. Don’t expect ‘first start off the DL’ Junior Guerra to be a difference maker for the Brewers in this one. Take the Diamondbacks. |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Arizona OVER (#959-960) Forget the pitching matchup for a moment – let’s talk about hitting! The Dbacks rank #3 in MLB in runs scored this season, and the Brewers rank #5 – we’re talking about two very potent offenses. From an OPS standpoint, they are #3 and #4 – both lineups feature plenty of power. And both lineups are in excellent current form. Arizona just pounded out 18 runs in a three game set vs. the White Sox, and they’ve scored five or more in eight of their last nine contests. The Brewers have scored 36 runs in their last five home games, and they’ve produced five runs or more in ten of their last 15 overall. Milwaukee, in particular, has been an Over machine all year, 29-16 to the Over including a 10-4-1 mark to the Over in those last fifteen contests. Arizona is coming off a true ‘bullpen’ game, leaving their pen depleted behind Robbie Ray tonight. The Brewers bash lefties like Ray, ranked #2 in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws. And it’s surely worth noting that while Ray pitched a gem last time out, that was against the light hitting Padres at Petco; basically the antithesis of facing Milwaukee in Milwaukee. It’s also worth noting that was Ray’s highest pitch count of the season. Brewers starter Zack Davies is a threat to get lit up every time he pitches. Davies ERA and his FIP are both more than a full run higher than league average, a big part of the reason why he’s cashed only one Under bet in nine previous starts this season. He’s been MUCH worse pitching at hitter friendly Miller Park (6.93 ERA, .343 batting average against). The Brewers bullpen behind him has 12 losses already, tied for second most in the majors. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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05-25-17 | Rockies -114 v. Phillies | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#951) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Rockies in their blowout win at Philadelphia yesterday. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “The betting markets have had a very hard time pricing Philadelphia correctly. The Phillies looked competitive in April, and were priced accordingly. That was then, this is now. This NL bottom feeder is in the midst of a 4-20 skid in their last 24 games; an easy team to fade in this competitive price range. “While the Phillies are ice cold, the Rockies remain red hot. Colorado has won each of their last seven series, and they have seven series wins and one push (in a two game set) in their eight road series this season, a team worthy of support on the highway.” Here’s the quote from struggling Phillies starter Vince Velasquez, after getting lit up by the light hitting Pirates in his last start: “In the game, it's just a lack of commitment, a lack of concentration, just a lack of everything. Even my golf game is a lack of everything. I don't know. I'm just clueless right now. I'm just running around like a chicken without a head. I don't know what I've got to do, but I just know there's something.” For a guy with a 7.25 home ERA, facing a red hot Rockies lineup will be no easy task. The Phillies have scored a grand total of eight runs in their last five games, ice cold on offense. Rockies starter Tyler Anderson got lit up repeatedly in early season play, but his last three starts have been rock solid – just six runs allowed. Behind him, the Rockies bullpen is in excellent shape after dominating the first two games of this series by a 23-5 final margin. Ride the hot & fade the cold! Take the Rockies. |
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05-24-17 | Rockies -122 v. Phillies | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#901) My clients and I cashed have bet against Jeremy Hellickson twice already this month, notching an Over and a push fading the Phillies supposed ‘ace’. Let me start with a brief excerpt from my last aniti-Hlellickson write-up: “That’s bad news for Jeremy Hellickson, who has been living on borrowed time. Hellickson was more lucky than good in his last outing against Miami, and his fly ball tendencies work against him here. “ ‘Living on borrowed time’ was an appropriate metaphor for Hellickson’s situation at the time. He went 4-0 with a 1.80 in April, but just about every advanced metric stat in existence said to expect a regression. That’s exactly what’s happened. Hellickson has a 5.95 ERA here in May while notching only one quality start in four tries. Behind him, the Phillies bullpen is a problematic unit right now; no surprise for a squad that has allowed eight runs or more four times in the last week. And the betting markets have had a very hard time pricing Philadelphia correctly. The Phillies looked competitive in April, and were priced accordingly. That was then, this is now. This NL bottom feeder is in the midst of a 4-19 skid in their last 23 games; an easy team to fade in this competitive price range. While the Phillies are ice cold, the Rockies remain red hot. Colorado has won each of their last seven series, and they have seven series wins and one push (in a two game set) in their eight road series this season, a team worthy of support on the highway. Starter Tyler Chatwood has pitched better on the road than at Coors Field this year, and he’s throw two gems in his last three trips to the hill. Behind him, the Rockies bullpen is in excellent shape after dominating the first two games of this series by a 16-3 final margin. Take the Rockies. |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 218 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Boston UNDER (#505-506) The NBA Playoffs have been a boon for Over bettors. The Spurs closed out the playoffs on a 12-3 run to the Over. Golden State is on a 9-3 Over run, Cleveland on a 8-3 Over Run and Boston on a 7-3 Over Run. Each of the first three games of this series has landed right around the total, with two Overs cashing by a combined 4.5 points and the lone Under cashing by 2.5. Given these type of results – Overs cashing in bunches, all three games of this series finishing right around the total – there’s no surprise that the betting markets have NOT made any significant adjustments for Game 4 tonight. And yet tonight’s game has a VERY different feel about it than the first three. The Celtics are not the same team without Isaiah Thomas on the floor. Their offense is slower and less efficient – no surprise there, minus an elite offensive point guard. And their defense is noticeably better minus the single worst defensive point guard in the NBA this season, based on the advanced metric stats. That’s a good part of the reason how the Celtics rallied back from a 21 point second half deficit to win Game 3 -- vastly improved defense, keeping the Cavs from driving into the paint. Boston’s improved defense and weaker offense were NOT truly on full display in Game 3 because BOTH teams were raining three’s throughout; combining for a whopping 34 made three pointers. Had they only made 33 of those, Game 3 would have stayed Under the total. Games 1 and 2 had 23 and 27 three point makes; right in the range of what we should expect again tonight. Without BOTH teams draining three pointers in bunches, this game has all the makings of an Under. No surprise here if we see what we saw from Boston in their Game 6 battle at Washington, a game that stayed 35 points Under…. Take the Under. |
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05-23-17 | Blue Jays v. Brewers -104 | 4-3 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#976) We’ve got first place vs. last place tonight. The first place team is at home, with their best pitcher on the hill facing a struggling foe starting a guy they signed off waivers to be a ‘cheap bullpen reinforcement’. And yet this game is priced right around ‘pick ‘em’, offering legitimate value to support the home team tonight. I understand that the Brewers aren’t a sexy team for the betting markets, a squad without the ace level pitchers that the markets seem to love. But Milwaukee is playing excellent baseball of late, 10-3 in their last 13 ballgames despite the fact that they were only favored one time (at -116) during that entire span! Jimmy Nelson, too, is not appreciated by the betting markets. He’s only been favored once all year: -114 at home against the Braves when Atlanta was really struggling. Nelson suffered through some April woes, but here in May, he’s been spectacular: two earned runs allowed in 15.2 innings of work over three starts while striking out 18 batters and holding his opponents to a .193 batting average against. The Brewers bullpen behind him is rested and ready off yesterday’s off day. Toronto lost their series with Atlanta and lost their series at Baltimore over the past week, continuing their season long inability to generate clutch hits or get key outs in high leverage situations. They still haven’t gotten key bats Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson back in the lineup following injuries. Starter Joe Biagini is no ace in the making; a former 26th round draft choice who has lasted 4, 5 and 4 innings of his first three big league starts. And the Jays bullpen has more losses (ten) than saves (nine), setting the stage for some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Take the Brewers. |
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05-22-17 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay – Los Angeles Angels OVER (#911-912) We’ve seen a big run of Overs in MLB in the past week, in large part due to circumstances like we find in Tampa Bay this evening – hot lineups facing off against overworked bullpens. And there’s ample reason to believe that both of these two teams will continue trending Over the total this evening. LA’s lineup has come back to life over the course of the last week. Sunday’s 12 run outburst against the Mets was the fifth time in six games that this squad has produced five runs or more. Angels starter Jake Odorizzi has a truly miserable track record against this lineup; on the wrong end of a 13-5 loss the last time LA came to town. Current Angels are hitting .359 against him with a .946 OPS. Behind Odorizzi, the Rays bullpen was used extensively in their series against the Yankees over the weekend; not a fresh unit tonight. Tampa’s lineup, too, has been really heating up of late, scoring 47 runs in their last seven games; producing five runs or more six times during that span. The Rays have been an Under-the-Radar Over machine of late, 8-1 to the Over in their last nine contests. LA starter JC Ramierz has shown some promise as an emerging young starter, but his track record against Tampa is downright ugly, with a .471 batting average against an a 1.353 OPS. Even in a short sample size, those numbers are problematic. And LA’s bullpen behind Ramirez is a big part of the reason that they’ve been trending Over of late too (4-1 to the Over L5, all four Overs producing 12 combined runs or more). Expect crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the Over. |
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05-21-17 | Marlins v. Dodgers OVER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Miami – LA Dodgers OVER (#953-954) The Dodgers have scored at least six runs in each of their last four games, while pounding out 20 runs in the first three games of this homestand. No surprise, then, that this hot hitting lineup is in the midst of a run of Overs; 6-1 to the Over in their last seven contests.. Don’t expect that offensive barrage to end today against Vance Worley and the overworked Marlins bullpen behind him. Worley is the ultimate ‘tired retread’ for a last place team. The Phillies, Twins, Pirates, Orioles and Nationals have all given up on him over the last five years. He wasn’t good in spring training, nor was he dominant at AAA New Orleans, but Don Mattingly doesn’t have many options with multiple starters on the DL. I’m not expecting his 2017 MLB debut to be particularly successful. Behind Worley, Miami’s weak bullpen is on life support – only one of their last six starters has finished the sixth inning. It’s surely worth noting that the bullpen has combined for a dismal ratio of nine losses to four saves. Miami, too, has been trending Over, despite the fact that their lineup hasn’t been producing on a consistent basis. In fact, Miami has cashed four Over bets in their last six games in which the offense has produced two runs or less, a testament to how weak that pitching staff has been. The Marlins lineup finally got going last night, flying Over the total by themselves. And there’s ample reason to think they’ll be able to hit Brandon McCarthy today. My clients and I cashed an underdog winner betting against McCarthy at San Francisco in his last start – his first back from the DL. He really labored in that game, giving up six runs while throwing a season high 105 pitches. LA used their bullpen extensively last night, setting the stage for some late inning shenanigans on both sides, should we need them. Last, but not least, it’s rarely difficult to make a case for the Over when Paul Nauert is calling balls and strikes. Nauert went 19-11 to the Over and his 62.5% strike percentage in seven previous games behind home plate this season ranks on the low side. Take the Over. |
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05-20-17 | Indians +113 v. Astros | 3-0 | Win | 113 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#917) Over the last three weeks, no team in MLB has been hotter than Houston. The Astros went 11-5 through a 16 game span, then 14-3 over their next 17 games. No team will win more than three out of four games indefinitely, and the correction began last night with a home loss to the Indians. From a value standpoint, the Astros have a huge betting bandwagon; the #2 team in MLB in terms of profitability this year. Cleveland is on the other end of the spectrum, major money losers despite the fact that they are two games Over .500 for the season. Multiple Indians starters continue to carry ‘ace’ level price tags to support them that have left their betting bandwagon rather small at this stage of the campaign. Mike Clevinger is not a starter that carries a value problem for the Indians; a young hurler who struggled repeatedly in an ill-fated starting role with the Tribe last year. Despite a problem with walks, he’s been solid in his two starts this year while allowing only four hits in ten innings of work. His quote inspires some confidence as well: "I still get that same kind of good anxiety before a start, but it's nothing compared to last year, where my legs were shaking and I didn't know how to stop my legs from shaking, and the sweating was uncontrollable and I couldn't even feel my fingers because there was so much sweat. I'm pretty sure that World Series knocked all of that off. I've never heard anything that loud in my life.” Astros starter Mike Fiers has a home run problem. He’s tied with Jered Weaver for the most home runs allowed in MLB this season, allowing a whopping 16 dingers in his seven starts. Fiers has allowed multiple home runs in each of his last six trips to the hill. With a fastball that averages only 89 mph, it’s no surprise that Fiers has some ugly advanced metric stats, like his 8.23 FIP. And the scary thing is that his numbers could be so much worse: he’s got a 95% strand rate and a .229 BABIP against him, both unsustainable numbers. The Indians bats are finally heating up. They’ve pounded out 29 runs in their last five games. Edwin Encarnacion is finally hitting. Jason Kipnis has three dingers in his last five games. Michael Brantley and Francisco Lindor both have hitting streaks going entering tonight’s game. And with Cleveland’s bullpen in excellent shape – still the best bullpen ERA in baseball – the Tribe have a significant edge in the latter stages of this one, primed to cash our ‘plus price’ wager. Take the Indians. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6.5 | 130-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#502) Let me start with three quotes; Jae Crowder, Celtics: “A lot of underdogs in this locker room. A lot of guys who had to prove themselves in this league ... who’ve been through the ropes, who’ve had to prove themselves. It’s in our DNA.” Isaiah Thomas, Celtics: “With a team like that, the defending champs, you can't let them hit first. We'll definitely make sure it's different for Game 2. They were the more energized team. There's a reason for that." Tristan Thompson, Cavs: “You can't stop everything. If it's (Jae) Crowder or (Marcus) Smart with the open 3s, we're going to take our chances with the percentages. The guys we can't leave open are (Avery) Bradley and (Isaiah)Thomas." In 90 games this year, Isaiah Thomas had more shot attempts than points only four times; one of which was Game 1. I’m not expecting a repeat showing. Nor do I expect the Celtics to come out lacking energy, like they did in Game 1 following their exhausting seven game series against the Wizards. I’ll take Brad Stevens ability to make adjustments over Tyronn Lue’s, and I’ll take Boston in a ‘bring everything we’ve got’ spot, with their season on the line tonight. Cleveland dominated Game 1, but we’ve seen this Boston team respond well to adversity before; more than once in these playoffs. Expect a competitive game. Take the Celtics. |
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05-19-17 | Phillies v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Pittsburgh OVER (#953-954) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Jeremy Hellickson on the run line in Chicago earlier this month. Let me start with a brief excerpt from that write-up: “That’s bad news for Jeremy Hellickson, who has been living on borrowed time. Hellickson was more lucky than good in his last outing against Miami, and his fly ball tendencies work against him here. “ ‘Living on borrowed time’ was an appropriate metaphor for Hellickson’s situation at the time. He went 4-0 with a 1.80 in April, but just about every advanced metric stat in existence said to expect a regression. That’s exactly what’s happened. Hellickson has allowed 12 earned runs – including seven dingers – over his last three starts while failing to record a single out in the sixth inning in any of those games. Behind Hellickson, the Phillies bullpen is spent following an ugly week in Texas; a bullpen that has been a big part of the reason why Philadelphia is 7-2 to the Over in their last nine ballgames. That’s bad news against the suddenly resurgent Pirates lineup, averaging just shy of six runs per game over their last six contests, including a ten run outburst last night. But with Trevor Williams on the hill for Pittsburgh, six runs might not be enough for the win tonight! Williams didn’t win a starting job in spring training; and none of his three spot starts over the past two seasons has been pretty; not a guy who has shown any ability to get through a batting order multiple times. The Pirates bullpen, too, is shaky here, both in terms of current rest and current form. On a warm night in Pittsburgh with the wind blowing out to right field, expect both squads to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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05-18-17 | Yankees -110 v. Royals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the New York Yankee (#911) There’s absolutely no comparison between these two teams right now. Forget the pitching matchup for a moment. The Yankees have outscored the Royals 18-8 in the first two games of this series. They’ve won seven of the last nine meetings between these two teams since the start of 2016. The Yankees rank #3 in MLB in profitability this year, the Royals rank #23. The Yankees lineup is tearing the cover off the ball, leading the majors with 17 games this season in which they’ve produced seven runs or more, including the first two game of this series. KC has scored more than seven runs in a game once this season. From a lineup standpoint, this one is clear: Advantage: New York! The only reason why the betting markets have priced this game near pick ‘em is because of a perceived starting pitching edge for KC and because the game is in KC. Well, the Yanks are 8-1 in their last nine on the highway, while KC has won only one of their last six series at home – not much of home field edge considering those numbers. There’s no bullpen edge for KC – the Yanks rank #2 in MLB in bullpen ERA, suffering only three bullpen losses all year. The Royals once mighty pen was decimated with offseason defections, suffering eight losses while ranking #24 in bullpen ERA. The Yanks pen is fresher today as well – that KC bullpen has been taxed of late. From a bullpen standpoint, this one is clear: Advantage: New York! Jordan Montgomery has pitched fairly well against some potent lineups of late, including the Astros, Cubs and Orioles in his last three starts. His flyball ways won’t hurt him at spacious Kaufmann Stadium, especially with the wind blowing in from right field. The Royals have consistently flailed against lefties all year, ranked #28 in batting average (.209) and OPS (.582) in 344 at bats this year against opposing southpaws. Montgomery is no ace in the making, but he’s a perfect fit against this lineup in this ballpark. Advantage: New York! Danny Duffy showed ace level potential as he transitioned into a full time starters role last year, striking out 188 batters in 179 innings of work. On paper, his 2017 season has been just as good, with six quality starts in eight tries. But the Royals aren’t winning for him, just 1-4 in his last five starts. And Duffy’s mainstream stats look comparable to where they were a season ago. But a little digging behind those mainstream numbers leaves this bettor looking to fade Duffy with a ‘Big Ticket’ sized wager. His strikeout rate is way down from last year, with his average velocity down significantly. His walk rate is way up. But Duffy has been lucky, with a home run to fly ball percentage that was 13.0 last year having declined to 3.6 this year. This Yankees lineup is primed to ‘correct’ that ratio in a hurry…….Big Ticket: Take the Yankees. |
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05-17-17 | A's -101 v. Mariners | 0-4 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Oakland (#969) Seattle finally reached .500 last week following a slow start. What did the Mariners do to celebrate that achievement? Exactly what they’ve been doing for years at key moments of the season – falling apart. They promptly got swept in a four game set at Toronto. Then, after winning the series opener against the A’s on Monday, Seattle’s bullpen woes were on full display last night. One day after demoting closer Edwin Diaz, newly installed close Steve Cischek failed miserably in his very first try. It’s surely worth noting that these struggles began immediately after slugging second baseman Robinson Cano started missing time with a sore quad. The Mariners just put him on the DL. Seattle is NOT a ‘bet-on’ team tonight. Oakland had the lead in the seventh inning or later in all three games at Texas over the weekend. Their bullpen blew all three contests, and the A’s couldn’t get a clutch late inning hit to break through. Then last night, a late inning error almost cost them another game, before the A’s finally broke through with a ninth inning explosion. Manager Bob Melvin: “When you go through streaks like this, you have to find some fight. We've been losing games by a defensive play, one pitch, little things during the whole stretch and at some point in time you have to overcome it.” And that’s exactly what they did, generating some positive momentum for the final game of this three game set tonight. In his last three road starts, Jesse Hahn has mowed down the Rangers, Astros and Angels, allowing a grand total of five runs (four earned) and 13 hits in 21 innings of work, showing real ‘bet-on’ potential. I don’t have that same vibe about Mariners retread starter Christian Bergman, who only lasted 66 pitches in his starting debut at Toronto last weekend and was largely ineffective as a spot starter for the Rockies in each of the previous two seasons. Take the A’s. |
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05-17-17 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 11.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati - Chicago Cubs OVER (#957-958) The Cubs aren’t involved in many pitcher’s duels these days. Chicago is 20-7 to the Over in their last 27 games, including a 10-1 mark to the Over in their last eleven at Wrigley Field. Only the Brewers, Mets and Rays have cashed more Over tickets than the Cubs here in 2017. Overs begat more Overs in MLB. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Overworked pitching staffs and struggling bullpens stay that way too, until proven otherwise. Make no mistake about it – Chicago’s run of Overs is a streak worth riding! When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, the ball carries like it does in few other ballparks in MLB. And the wind is blowing out tonight, a 20 mph wind blowing out to left field, with gametime temperatures expected near 80 degrees. We saw seven home runs in similar conditions last night and tonight’s game features similar potential. Kyle Hendricks hasn’t won a start at Wrigley yet this season, with an ERA more than a full run higher pitching at home. His FIP is a full run higher than it was last year. Joe Maddon used most of his best bullpen arms behind Hendricks last night. Scott Feldman’s quote about pitching at Wrigley stands out here: “You can't control the wind, unfortunately, or else I'd have it blow in every time. You can't really re-invent yourself just because the wind's blowing a certain way. Just try to make pitches and hope they hit it on the ground and right at somebody." Cinci’s bullpen behind Feldman got lit up last night, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them……Take the OVER. |
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05-16-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +160 | 1-2 | Win | 160 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#910) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Giants as a home underdog against the Dodgers last night. “Make no mistake about it – the Giants are on a legitimate uptick right now, winning four of their last five following a truly disastrous East Coast road trip. Future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy after the Giants victory on Sunday: “More than anything, you look at what happened in Cincinnati (on that road trip). We got pummeled pretty good, to the point where that's embarrassing. We come here, they win the first ballgame so they've won four in a row now and had a lot of success against us. To bounce back and win three games in a row and pitch the way we did and really execute and win the way we did... it was a good bounce-back.” After last night’s blowout win as an underdog against LA, it’s now a 5-1 run for the Giants, their best stretch of the entire season. Bochy, following last night’s victory: “It certainly helps your personality. We're not going to get giddy here. We've dug ourselves a hole, and they realize it. The worm's going to turn, and it has." The Giants have just scored eight runs in back-2-back games, heating up with their bats. Their bullpen is in good shape, with their top three relievers all good to go tonight. And the starting pitching battle in this game does NOT merit a huge favorite’s pricetag for LA. Ty Blach pitched a gem last time out, allowing five hits and two runs in seven full innings against the Giants. LA has struggled against lefties once again this season – just like last year – and they’ve scored only two runs in 16 innings against Blach dating back to his callup last September. That includes a dominating eight inning shutout effort in his lone start against the Dodgers on this field. Current Dodgers have hit .159 with a .355 OPS in 44 career at bats against Blach. Rich Hill is coming off a stint on the DL due to recurring blister problems on his throwing hand; not likely to throw an extended outing here. That’s bad news for LA considering their struggling bullpen, overused in Colorado last weekend. Current Giants have blasted Hill to the tune of a .361 batting average against and an .895 OPS. Put it all together and San Fran has all the makings of a ‘live’ underdog in this one! Take the Giants. |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Golden State – San Antonio UNDER (#719-720) There is one factor that is putting me squarely on the Under for this ballgame, a factor that trumps any other when it comes to the pace of this ballgame. That factor, of course, is Gregg Popovich; the Bill Belichick of the NBA; a coach who creates gameplans that consistently flummox their opponents. So, pretend you’re Gregg Popovich for a moment. You’ve already lost your starting point guard for the rest of the playoffs, with Tony Parker’s injury. And then you lose your best player on BOTH ends of the court, with Kawhi Leonard expected to miss Game 2 tonight. So what do you do against an elite defense like Golden State’s; a defense that held San Antonio to 33 points over the game’s final 21 minutes after Kawhi Leonard got hurt? If I’m Popovich, I’m looking to SLOW the pace as much as possible, shortening the game and eliminating the ridiculous 25 fast break points that San Antonio allowed after halftime of Game 1. The Spurs are as deep as any team in the league – the back end of their bench can contribute on both ends of the floor, unlike so many other teams. Of course, facing the Warriors, it’s not about contributions from the back end of the rotation – it’s about defense and pace. I’m expecting the Spurs to slow this game to a crawl as best they can. I’m not expecting a late game flurry, with 19 points scored in the final 2:25 of Game 1, because tonight’s game has plenty of ‘dribble out’ potential for the final possessions. Twice in three regular season meetings, San Antonio held Golden State to 100 points or less. No surprise here if they do it again tonight in a game that has all the makings of a relatively low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. |
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05-15-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +141 | 4-8 | Win | 141 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#956) To say the betting markets HATE Matt Cain is something of an understatement. How much do they dislike Cain? Well, the only time he’s been favored all year (higher than -110) came at home against the lowly Padres with Jhoulys Chacin on the hill. In his road starts, the markets have been 100% correct in fading the aging Giants hurler – he’s thrown well only once in four tries. But pitching in his comfort zone on a typical cool May evening in San Francisco, Cain offers legitimate ‘bet-on’ potential, especially in this attractive underdog price range. The numbers don’t lie. Matt Cain has a 7.32 ERA on the highway this year, but he’s allowed only two runs in his three starts here at AT&T Park; a ‘bet-on’ hurler in a ballpark where fly balls tend to die on the warning track. That home ERA includes six innings of two hit shutout ball against the same Dodgers lineup he’ll face tonight. And make no mistake about it – the Giants are on a legitimate uptick right now, winning four of their last five following a truly disastrous East Coast road trip. Future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy after the Giants victory on Sunday: “More than anything, you look at what happened in Cincinnati (on that road trip). We got pummeled pretty good, to the point where that's embarrassing. We come here, they win the first ballgame so they've won four in a row now and had a lot of success against us. To bounce back and win three games in a row and pitch the way we did and really execute and win the way we did... it was a good bounce-back.” Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy Is making his first appearance back off the DL following a dislocated left shoulder, not in line for an extended outing tonight. McCarthy’s track record against this Giants lineup is downright ugly. San Fran has collectively hit .357 against him in 112 career at bats, with a .974 OPS. LA’s bullpen behind him got used extensively in Colorado over the weekend, anything BUT fresh here. Put it all together and San Fran has all the makings of a ‘live’ underdog in this one! Take the Giants. |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston – Washington UNDER (#715-716) Let me start with an excerpt from my Under write-up for Game 6, an easy ‘right side’ winner that cashed by more than 30 points: “Two things happened that were ‘different’ in Game 5 between the Wizards and Celtics. First, the Celtics finally figured out their low post defense, repeatedly stuffing John Wall at the rim. Boston blocked a series high eight shots, showing significant improvement in the paint following a series of Brad Stevens adjustments. “Second, the Celtics ran the Wizards out of the gym, after Washington had gotten the job done with their transition in each of their previous two contests; games where the Celtics were held to 89 and 102 points, in sharp contrast to the 123 they hung in Game 5. Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not amused by his team’s defensive showing, as evidenced by this ‘actionable’ quote. “Brooks: “When you give a very good team transition points and breakaway points with nobody guarding you ... it's going to be hard to keep up with them. We had no answers for those guys. We've done a pretty good job on their best player, but not a good enough job on the other guys." So what happened in Game 6? Yes, the shooting percentages were down in a tight defensive struggle. But more than that, the transition buckets simply weren’t there, the pace wasn’t there, and the bevy of ‘free and easy’ buckets weren’t there. I do NOT expect any of that to chance for Game 7, yet the total remains in ‘inflated’ territory based on the full series results thusfar. This is not unusual in the slightest. As a series progresses, teams offer precious few surprises and adjustments to what they’ve already done. That’s at least part of the reason why series tend to get lower scoring, bogging down once we get to Games 6 and 7. In a Game 7 ‘win or go home’ situation where BOTH teams can be expected to get after it defensively, particularly in transition, expect the second consecutive game to stay Under the total by margin; a play worthy of Big Ticket status with this total still sitting above 210 as I write this. Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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05-14-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – Chicago Cubs OVER (#907-908) The Cubs aren’t involved in many pitcher’s duels these days. Chicago is 19-6 to the Over in their last 25 games. Only the Brewers have cashed more Over tickets than the Cubs here in 2017. The Cardinals have been a consistent Over team as well – they’ve cashed only 12 Under bets since opening day. Only the Mets have cashed fewer Unders than St Louis here in 2017. The Cards are 14-3 to the Over in their last 17 ballgames. Overs begat more Overs in MLB. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Overworked pitching staffs and struggling bullpens stay that way too, until proven otherwise. So when two teams meet in the midst of a run of Overs, it’s not just a meaningless trend – it’s a streak worth riding! Jake Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball in 2015, right through the All Star Break last year. But his ERA went up a full run in his 13 post-break starts in 2016, and he notched only one quality start in four postseason tries. After two solid starts to open the season this year, Arrieta has been hit hard in each of his last four trips to the hill. He’s not the same pitcher right now, plain and simple, off back-2-back 220+ inning seasons. Adam Wainwright was a Top 3 finisher in the Cy Young voting on four different occasions between 2009 and 2014. That was then, this is now. Since losing most of the 2015 season due to an Achilles tear, Wainwright, too, hasn’t been the same guy. Wainwright closed out last season with only four quality starts in his final 13 tries. This year, he’s still looking for his first quality start after seven tries. And this quote following his last ugly start against the Marlins, a game where he didn’t throw hit cutter even once: “It was on timeout. When it's done disobeying, it will be out of timeout, just like my children." On a warm afternoon at Busch Stadium with the wind blowing out to left, the Cubs are a threat to go Over this total by themselves. It’s the same story with the Cardinals potent lineup; a lineup that has pounded out five runs or more seven times in their last eight ballgames. Even home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman has a legitimate Over bias with his relatively narrow strike zone! Take the OVER. |
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05-13-17 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#962) on the Run Line (-1.5) To say that the Pirates are falling on hard times is something of an understatement. Pittsburgh won 94 games and made the playoffs in 2013. They won 88 games and made the playoffs in 2014 and followed that up with a 98 win playoff season in 2015. Last year, despite the fact that they were still very much in contention for a Wild Card spot, the Pirates braintrust made the decision to be sellers, not buyers at the trading deadline. The end result? Pittsburgh finished five games under .500 and 25 games out of the NL Central title. Things have gone from bad to worse here in 2017. They lost arguably their best player, CF Sterling Marte, to an 80 game suspension. No one on the team has more than 15 RBI’s, 15 runs scored or six home runs. There’s no speed on the basepaths, with only 15 stolen bases all year. The Pirates are hitting .222 as a team. Only the Royals and Giants have scored fewer runs than the Pirates this year. Without Marte in center, the Pittsburgh defense has taken a huge hit, leaving their very young pitching staff vulnerable. Their bullpen has nearly as many losses (seven) as saves (eight). That bullpen is anything but fresh tonight – three times already in their first five games of this road trip, the Pirates starter hasn’t made it into the sixth inning. Pittsburgh is 0-5 on their current road trip, just 3-12 in their last 15 on the highway. That anemic lineup has produced 4, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 4, 2 and 2 runs in their last ten games, unable to generate offense against ANYBODY. That’s bad news with Trevor Williams on the hill on a night where the roof will be open in Arizona. Here’s the book on Williams, from a minor league prospect report by John Sickels: “Williams features a fastball that tops in the low-90s to mix with a curve, slider, and change-up. He throws strikes and is durable but none of his pitches project as outstanding or overpowering. His best attributes are control and durability, giving him a shot at being a fourth or fifth starter.” We’re not talking ‘potential ace’ here, folks! Williams got absolutely bombed in the first inning of his first start, at LA earlier in the week, where eight of the 17 batters he faced came around to score. Facing a hot Arizona lineup (20 runs scored in their last three games), we can expect continued struggles here, especially with a weak defense and bullpen behind him! This is the wrong lineup and the wrong venue for this very ‘iffy’ young hurler. Arizona isn’t just beating teams when they win – they’re destroying them, with 16 of their last 20 victories coming by multi-run margins. Starter Taijuan Walker threw eight innings of two run ball while striking out 11 in his last home start, and all five of the team’s wins with him on the mound this year have come by multi-run margins. And the D-backs bullpen behind him is rested & ready to slam the door shut behind Walker after throwing only six innings of work in their last three games combined. Big Ticket: Take Arizona on the RUN LINE. |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 217 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Washington UNDER (#711-712) Two things happened that were ‘different’ in Game 5 between the Wizards and Celtics. First, the Celtics finally figured out their low post defense, repeatedly stuffing John Wall at the rim. Boston blocked a series high eight shots, showing significant improvement in the paint following a series of Brad Stevens adjustments. Second, the Celtics ran the Wizards out of the gym, after Washington had gotten the job done with their transition in each of their previous two contests; games where the Celtics were held to 89 and 102 points, in sharp contrast to the 123 they hung in Game 5. Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not amused by his team’s defensive showing, as evidenced by this ‘actionable’ quote. Brooks: “When you give a very good team transition points and breakaway points with nobody guarding you ... it's going to be hard to keep up with them. We had no answers for those guys. We've done a pretty good job on their best player, but not a good enough job on the other guys." Boston has played at a noticeably slower pace on the highway throughout this postseason, cashing four Unders in five road playoff games. That stands in sharp contrast to their 6-0 mark to the Over when playing at home, pushing the pace far more effectively in front of a friendly crowd. As a series progresses, teams offer precious few surprises and adjustments to what they’ve already done. That’s at least part of the reason why series tend to get lower scoring, bogging down once we get to Games 5, 6 and 7. On a night where BOTH teams can be expected to get after it defensively, particularly in transition, expect the lowest scoring game of the series! Take the Under |
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05-12-17 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 9 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Miami OVER (#901-902) The betting markets aren’t going to pay much attention to infield defense. In this particular game, the markets are missing something that legitimately matters! Based on the best defensive advanced metric stats available (PADE – Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency), Miami’s defense has been as good as any in baseball so far this season. But their team has been riddled with injuries over the past week. Infielders Miguel Rojas, Martin Prado and Aeiny Hechavarria have all gone on the DL, leaving Don Mattingly very short on infield options. That’s particularly bad news with Jose Urena on the hill, because Urena pitches to contact, not a strikeout guy. Urena has a terrible track record against Atlanta, with current Braves hitting .417 against him with a 1.157 OPS. Both of his appearances against the Braves last year were downright ugly, including a three inning start on this field back in September. With a very shaky defense behind Urena (and the suspect bullpen), no surprise here if the Braves break out of their hitting funk tonight. Michael Foltynewicz doesn’t have a particularly good track record against the Marlins lineup either, with Miami’s current players hitting .298 against him in their respective careers. Foltynewicz allowed 13 hits and eight runs in just over six innings of work in two starts against the Marlins last year. Hs current form is not pretty, blasted for eleven runs in ten innings of work against the Brewers and Cardinals in his last two trips to the hill. And the Braves bullpen behind him ranks #13 out of 15 NL teams in ERA, more than capable of a late game implosion should we need it! Take the Over. |
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05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | 101-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#519) For a team like the Wizards with a very limited bench, extra rest matters – A LOT. No other team in the NBA had four starters rank among the Top 30 in the league in minutes played during the regular season. No other team has gotten more minutes out of their starters, per game, here in the playoffs. These two teams have played only once since last Thursday, in sharp contrast to the Spurs – Rockets who played three games in that same span. And when those starters are rested and ready like they are tonight, the Wizards have a legitimate edge Make no mistake about it – Washington’s starters have badly outplayed the Celtics starters in this series, as a quick look at the +/- numbers from the first four games will show. Boston has the depth edge, for sure, which mattered a lot in the ‘short turnaround’ Game 1 (Washington played less than 48 hours after beating Atlanta in Game 6) as well as the Game 2 OT thriller on this floor, also played on short rest, when Washington simply ran out of gas down the stretch. But that bench edge doesn’t matter as much when the Wizards are rested – Scott Brooks can keep his key cogs on the court for 40+ minutes tonight if needed. The return of Ian Mahinmi to the Wizards rotation following an extended injury absence didn’t move the needle one iota for the betting markets. But make no mistake about it – Mahinmi is an impact player for the Wizards in this series now that he’s healthy, allowing Marcin Gortat to get his normal rest throughout the game. And with Jason Smith showing no ill effects from his own recent injury concerns, all of a sudden, the Wizards have their full complement of seven footers, primed to dominate the glass like they’ve done in each of the last two games (+14 and +12). Obviously, those extra possessions for Washington mattered in a pair of double digit victories. The homecourt edge in any competitive series declines at this stage – road teams are acclimated to the opposing venue and locked in mentally for a tough series. In a series tied at 2-2, Game 5 is ‘road underdog’ time, as we saw in San Antonio last night. And with John Wall coming off a pair of games in which he was not at his best, hitting just 15-44 from the floor in the Wizards two blowout wins at home, we can expect the Wizards superstar to bring his ‘A’ game here, putting Washington in position to notch the outright upset….or at least come close! Take the Wizards. |
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05-10-17 | Orioles v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore – Washington OVER (#919-920) The Orioles bullpen is a mess. The Nationals bullpen is a mess. Even if BOTH starters shut down these two hot lineups, this game still has the potential to fly Over the total late, just like it did in last night’s thriller when a 1-1 game in the eighth inning ended up cashing Over 8.5 bets! I’m not convinced that either starter is coming through with a shutdown effort today. Stephen Strasburg is in the process of getting Dusty Baker’d, coming off the single highest pitch count game of his CAREER last Friday at Philly. Strasburg did have one start back in 2012 with an equal pitch count. It’s worth noting that despite all of those pitches, he failed to make it out of the sixth inning and had a season high in walks. I am not expecting vintage Strasburg tonight. Behind him, the Nats bullpen now ranks dead last in the NL with a 5.47 ERA after last night’s debacle, and the bullpen is anything BUT fresh here. The Orioles have used up their bullpen too following last night’s extra inning affair. They haven’t had a day off since April, and had a pair of starts in the last week where the bullpen was needed for 7+ innings. Closer Zack Britton is on the DL, leaving the situation more than a bit dicey for Buck Showalter in the latter stages, as we saw again last night. Orioles starter Wade Miley had TWO line drives hit off him in the first inning of his last start, resulting in a very early exit. He’s facing the highest scoring lineup in baseball today, and a team that has hit opposing lefties to the tune of a 1.013 OPS this season, by FAR the most potent lineup in MLB against southpaws. Current Nationals have hit .375 against Miley in a decent sample size of 96 at bats. On a warm spring night in DC, expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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05-09-17 | Angels v. A's -130 | 7-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Oakland (#966) The A’s rallied in the ninth inning to beat K-Rod and the Tigers on Saturday. They rallied in the ninth inning to beat K-Rod and the Tigers again on Sunday. They held LA scoreless for the final ten innings yesterday, ending the game with a walk-off home run in the 11th. And there’s ample reason to think the A’s can continue their winning ways as short favorites against the Angels tonight. A’s infielder Jed Lowrie on Sunday, talking about the impact of back-2-back walkoff wins: “I think momentum absolutely carries over. When you're playing well you show up to the park the next day and there's a different energy in the clubhouse." And I like this quote from A’s manager Bob Melvin as well, talking about how the whole team seems to be coming together right now after a really rough couple of weeks in which the A’s lost ten of twelve and briefly fell into last place: “It just seemed like it was a total team effort. We can't rely on one or two guys. You have to get contributions on all ends of it from us, and we did." And here’s one more quote, from catcher Stephen Vogt following last night’s walk-off: "I think that's something we've been waiting for, some kind of energizing sort of wins. That's going to bring energy to anybody, but us coming off of that long road trip and really turning that series around against Detroit in a big way and carrying this momentum. We've been pitching great, defense has been outstanding, I feel like. Kept us in games. And timely hitting. Obviously, we've gotten some big hits late. That's kind of been our M.O. in the past. It's nice to see this team fighting and everybody pulling for each other. It's a lot of fun now.” LA, on the other hand, has lost two straight and five of their last six. Their best player, Mike Trout, has been sitting with a hamstring injury, potentially headed to the DL. Without him, their lineup defines the word ‘anemic’ , producing only six runs in their last three games combined. Starter Adam Meyer is only here because of a glut of injuries to the starting staff, and his first two starts of 2017 have been downright ugly; bad news for a pitcher with a career 7.32 ERA and 1.85 WHIP while being unable to stay in the big leagues following numerous call-ups from AAA. Ride the hot & fade the cold! Take the A’s. |
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05-09-17 | Tigers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Arizona OVER (#979-980) It’s not hard to make a case for betting the Over at Chase Field, especially when the roof is open, like it will be tonight when the Dbacks take on the Tigers. Arizona has only cashed five Under bets in their first 17 home games. They’ve scored four runs or more in 13 of those 17 home games, ranked #4 in the NL in runs scored, with all seven of their every day regulars enjoying an on base percentage of .315 or higher. All of this is bad news for Justin Verlander and the Tigers bullpen behind him. Verlander has seen just about every one of his advanced metrics stats decline here in 2017 – his strikeout rate is down, his swinging strike rate is down, his ground ball rate is down and his walk rate is up! The fly ball rate is of particular concern here, facing a potent lineup on a field where fly balls tend to carry with the roof open. In three road starts this season, Verlander has an 8.80 ERA, in sharp contrast to his 0.86 at home in Detroit! Behind Verlander, the Tigers bullpen ranks dead last in the majors in both ERA and FIP, coming off a series in Oakland in which closer Franky Rodriguez blew a pair of save chances. No surprise here if the D-backs approach or exceed this total all by themselves tonight. Robbie Ray’s advanced metric stats are rock solid, with one notable exception – his walk rate. The Tigers have a patient, potent lineup with 115 walks already this year. All of their key hitters were taking excellent at bats in their series at Oakland to open the trip. Since Miguel Cabrera returned to the lineup on May 2nd, the Tigers have scored five runs or more four times in five games; a lineup that’s starting to click. Arizona’s bullpen behind Ray isn’t loaded with aces either, leaving the door open for some late fireworks should we need them! Take the Over. |
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05-08-17 | Angels v. A's -103 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Oakland (#914) The A’s rallied in the ninth inning to beat K-Rod and the Tigers on Saturday. They rallied in the ninth inning to beat K-Rod and the Tigers again yesterday. And there’s ample reason to think the A’s can continue their winning ways in a pick ‘em priced game against the Angels tonight. A’s infielder Jed Lowrie, talking about the impact of back-2-back walkoff wins: “I think momentum absolutely carries over. When you're playing well you show up to the park the next day and there's a different energy in the clubhouse." And I like this quote from A’s manager Bob Melvin as well, talking about how the whole team seems to be coming together right now after a really rough couple of weeks in which the A’s lost ten of twelve and briefly fell into last place: “It just seemed like it was a total team effort. We can't rely on one or two guys. You have to get contributions on all ends of it from us, and we did." The money has poured in on LA in early betting action today because it looks as if Mike Trout is going to suit up for the Angels after missing a couple of games over the weekend with a strained hamstring. Yes, trout is an impact player. No, he’s not worth a 30 cent line move, like the one we’ve seen already today; especially not with tired retread Ricky Nolasco on the hill for LA tonight. Nolasco has been dealing with a sore calf, and he’s notched only two quality starts in six tries this year. The A’s beat him on this field back in April and I expect them to do it again here in May. Take the A’s. |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Golden State – Utah OVER (#701-702) Golden State was held to a playoff low 102 points in Game 3. Their backcourt duo of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson finished with a combined 7-29 shooting effort, missing the shots they normally make. Golden State wasn’t hitting from three point range, hitting just 30% from beyond the arc. This team has averaged more than 114 points per game here in the postseason after leading the NBA with a 116 points per game average during the regular season. Even with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint effectively, the Jazz haven’t shown the ability to shut the Warriors offense down for extended stretches at any point during their regular season meetings or here in the playoffs. Most home teams that are down 3-0 in a series are primed to deliver a flat effort in Game 4. There’s not much motivation to get on a plane and fly back to their opponents home court for what is likely to be a rough and ugly Game 5. That does NOT appear to be the case for Utah. Head coach Quin Snyder: “We can’t get to Game #5 until you play Game #4. It's a chance to break through or the season's over. If we're able to do that, we'll turn our attention to the next game. Until we can do that, there's no sense looking forward. Just stay completely present." But it’s not just the coach who is talking the talk. Jazz All Star Gordon Hayward, following their Game 3 loss: “It's definitely encouraging. From where we were Game 1 to where we are tonight, you can see signs of improvement.” Utah’s best player in this series, Rudy Gobert: “I think we've been getting better every game. It's just those last seven minutes when we let them take over the game. I think we've gotten better and we've got to build around what we've done and keep the same attitude, and keep competing, and just believe in ourselves. I think we'll be fine.” How about Kevin Durant’s quote, from the other sideline: “They don't quit. That's what I love about this team. They have a great coach. They play physical. They don't give up. They've got a great crowd as well so they're going to try to feed off of that. The series is far from over.” From a totals perspective, those quotes tell me to expect Utah to fight tonight, not lay down. And if the Jazz fight, the Over here makes perfect sense. Yes, we’ve got a legitimate opportunity for late game scramble points should we need them. But we’ve also got a pair of teams primed to shoot much better in Game 4 than they did in Game 3 – not just Curry and Thompson either> Let’s not forget that other than Gobert hitting seven of his eight shot attempts from short range on Saturday Night, the entire Jazz team went 23-69 from the floor, hitting only 33%. Slightly better shooting from both teams can be expected here, sending this game up and Over the total. Take the OVER. |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 212.5 | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Houston – San Antonio OVER (#515-516) Here’s the key quote from Rockets win Trevor Ariza: “They played harder than we did in the second half. We can't allow that, especially at home. We've got to do a better job of matching their physicality and playing harder.” Here’s the key stat for San Antonio. The Spurs pushed the tempo after halftime of Game 3, hanging 60 points on Houston after the break after scoring only 43 first half points. They finished the second half with an effective FG percentage of 64%. I’m not convinced that Houston has the defensive answers right now, with only 48 hours between games for Mike D’Antoni to make his limited adjustments. Here’s the key quote from Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich; a coach who knows full well that in both Game 1 and Game 2, the winner hung more than 120 on the loser. “It's a challenge. They've got great shooters, good athletes, good scheme, and just as anyone else would do we're just trying to do our best to get out to those shooters. James does a great job making you think about what you have to do to him, how much you can help off other people. It's enough to drive you crazy but you just do your best. That's why people score." The Spurs are 7-2 to the Over here in the postseason, an under-the-radar angle that has not attracted significant betting attention. The Rockets have just been held under 100 points in two consecutive games, getting little from James Harden in one (3-17 shooting, only 13 points) and little from the supporting cast in the second (the rest of the team shot 18-60 30% from the floor). It’s surely worth noting that Houston hasn’t been held under 107 in any three game stretch all season. With the Rockets in desperation mode, expect a ‘push the pace’ offense for 48 minutes from the home favorite tonight, sending this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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05-07-17 | Tigers v. A's -109 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Oakland (#976) I want my $$ ON Sonny Gray today. Gary was the A’s ace in 2014 and 2015, winning 28 games with an ERA under 3.00. Last year, Gray was brilliant again in April, but he suffered through a multitude of injuries that left him largely ineffective , including a two month late season stint on the DL. Then in spring training he suffered a ‘moderate lat strain’, setting back his recovery process. In Gray’s 2017 debut at Minnesota this past week, his numbers didn’t impress, allowing three home runs in a 9-1 A’s loss. But there was plenty to like out of his debut. A’s catcher Stephen Vogt: “I thought he was outstanding. He made three mistakes and they all got whacked. He did a lot of good things in that first start. He showed a lot of poise. His curveball was as good as I've seen it in a couple years, and obviously the life on the fastball and the velocity was great. Threw some really good changeups as well. He really looked good.” Now THAT’s a ‘Bet-On’ quote from a catcher if I’ve ever heard one, especially considering the markets reluctance to like Sonny Gray these days – although there was some significant wiseguy $4 coming in on Gray in early betting action this morning. And this is an Oakland ‘spot’ as well, with the A’s snapping a nasty 2-10 skid with a come-from-behind walk-off win against Detroit last night, their first walk-off victory of the season. It’s not the first walk-off victory that the Tigers have allowed this year, and it won’t be the last, because Tigers manager Brad Ausmus has a legitimate bullpen problem and it’s not going away. Detroit ranks dead last of the 30 MLB teams in bullpen ERA. Closer Francisco Rodriguez has a 1.85 WHIP and blew the game last night. Even if (and that’s a big ‘if’ considering his recent command problems and high pitch counts) Daniel Norris pitches a gem for Detroit today, the Tigers bullpen is in no shape to hold any late inning leads tonight either! Take the A’s. |
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05-06-17 | Blue Jays +110 v. Rays | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#915) It’s not hard to make a case for betting ON Marco Estrada and the Blue Jays at a plus price in afternoon action on Saturday. Estrada has been an under-the-radar gem for Toronto, with five strong quality starts in six tries this season. Estrada has been nothing short of brilliant in his last four starts, holding four potent offenses (Boston, Baltimore, NY Yankees and St Louis) to a combined total of three runs and 20 hits in 26 innings of work. The last place Blue Jays went 3-1 in those four games, with Estrada cashing twice as a decent sized underdog (+135 and +165). And it’s not hard to make a case for betting against the light hitting Rays, especially following a game where their struggling bullpen got lit up again. Starter Jake Odorizzi missed two weeks with a hamstring issue and struggled with his pitch count upon his return earlier in this week. Odorizzi doesn’t get many ground ball outs, good news for the Blue Jays power bats. His FIP is more than a run and a half higher than his ERA, and his .170 BABIP indicate that he’s been more lucky than good…and he hasn’t been that good, showing extreme vulnerability to the home run ball. The Rays bullpen behind Odorizzi has suffered nine losses and blown eight save chances already. Three different relievers threw gas on the fire last night as the Jays scored seven runs in the seventh and eighth inning to rally for the win. And the Rays defense will take a BIG hit today if two tiem Gold Glov e winning center fielder Kevin Kiermaier can’t play today after getting plunked in the hand with a pitch yesterday. Live dog here! Take the Blue Jays. |
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05-05-17 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Boston OVER (#969-970) Very quietly, waaaaaaay Under the Radar, a Minnesota Twins team that cashed only two Over bets in their first 13 games of the season has morphed into an Over machine. The results don’t lie. Minnesota is 6-0 to the Over in their last six ballgames; every one of them producing ten combined runs or more. And this is an Over streak that really has the potential to be the gift that keeps on giving! The Twins starting pitching is mediocre on a good day, to put it bluntly. As a result, their bullpen is already getting worn down, throwing eleven innings during their just concluded three game set with the A’s. The Twins young lineup is talented and hot, pounding out 5 , 7, 9, 7, 6, 3 and 8 runs in their last seven contests. On a beautiful evening in Minnesota, with gametime temperatures expected in the 70’s, there’s ample reason to expect the Twins lineup to keep hitting. Boston is primed to hit this evening as well. The Red Sox lineup is World Series caliber, and just about all of their big bats are in good current form. That’s bad news for struggling Phil Hughes, who has been lit up three times in his last four starts. Hughes has allowed current Red Sox to hit .356 against him with a .952 OPS. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez is an advanced metrics correction waiting to happen; a hurler with a FIP more than a run and a half higher than his ERA. Current Twins are hitting .317 against him with an .868 OPS, and he failed to make it out of the fifth inning in his lone start at Target Field last year. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen is in no great shape following intense series with the Yankees, Cubs and Orioles back-2-back-2-back, without a single day off in between. Take the Over. |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +4.5 | 115-94 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#736) Here are the two key quotes coming from the Raptors locker room following their Game 2 blowout loss at Cleveland, their fifth consecutive playoff blowout loss to the Cavs at ‘The Q’ over the past two postseasons: Raptors head coach Dwane Casey: "The thing about it is we are in the same place we were last year. Until a team wins on another team's court, it's a series. We go back to Toronto. They have played well, we shake their hand. They shot great and LeBron shot 21 free throws... we shot 19 as a team. They played well but we haven't scratched the surface of where we can go.” Raptors All Star guard DeMar DeRozan, coming off a game in which he finished 2-11 from the floor with only one made free throw, three assists and three rebounds: "It sucks. To lose like we did. To play like I did. It sucks. It's frustrating. Now I just have the added time having to wait till Friday night to redeem myself.” From all indications, the Raptors have not given up. They were in this exact same spot last year and won Games 3 and 4 here in Toronto. Kyle Lowry’s ankle doesn’t appear to be too serious, and the Raptors supporting cast is primed for a step-up game. We saw how this team performed with their backs against the wall vs. Milwaukee in Round 1, notching three straight wins to close out the series. I’m expecting that level of effort and execution again tonight. And with the Cavs taking heavy $$ in early betting action, a competitive loss serves our purposes just fine. The Cavs have played out of their minds on the offensive end of the court in this series. They’re coming off a game in which they shot 55% from two point range and made 18-33 three pointers as well, while LeBron singlehandedly took more free throws than the entire Raptors team. That came on the heels of a 14 three pointer performance in Game 1. Don’t expect ridiculous shooting numbers from the Cavs for the third straight game this evening. And, for all of the Cavs offensive success, this team still isn’t playing championship caliber defense. Their two wins at Indiana in Round 1 were both tight, down-to-the-wire games decided by five points or less. After nine straight double digit blowouts to open up the Round 2 of the Playoffs, this game finally has the feel of a game that’ll come down to the final possession, making the contrarian play of Toronto plus the points a positive expectation wager. Take the Raptors. |
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05-04-17 | Marlins +116 v. Rays | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#925) The Miami Marlins got what they needed in the worst way last night, rallying from behind to beat Tampa 10-6, and snapping a string of six losses in their previous seven ballgames. In the process, they got their long dormant lineup going and they used up several key arms out of the Rays struggling bullpen, setting them up for their second straight underdog victory tonight. Marlins manager Don Mattingly, following the win: “We were able to put a bunch of hits together which was good because they were coming from all different places. I think you become a dangerous club when everybody feels like they don't necessarily have to carry the load, they just have to get their hit and move that line…..I enjoy the National League game; but, in the American League game, there are some advantages, obviously having the extra hitter in the lineup.” And that’s one part of the key here. Miami can hit, despite their recent struggles. Giancarlo Stanton remains among the most dangerous bats in all of baseball. Marcell Ozuna hit his second home run of the month last night, a massive bomb. The Marlins top three in the order combined for six hits and six RBI’s, while the bottom three in the order had eight hits and five runs scored between them. And Miami is primed to score runs in bunches again tonight against Matt Andriese. Andriese is struggling with the gopher ball, allowing at least one home run in each of his five previous starts. His strikeouts are down, his FIP is a full run and a half higher than his ERA, and current Marlins have a combined .318 batting average against him. Behind Andriese, the Rays bullpen got hammered last night and they’ve thrown 11 innings over the past three days, anything BUT fresh here; a bullpen that leads the major leagues with seven blown saves and eight losses! The Rays lineup isn’t primed to trade runs with any potent offense, averaging just three runs per game over their last five contests while ranking below average in MLB this season in both batting average and OPS. Miami has the much deeper bullpen of these two teams. And Marlins starter Dan Straily has legit ‘bet-on’ potential after allowing only seven earned runs in his last four starts combined, while striking out 29 opposing hitters in the process. Home field matters very little in this series, yet the betting markets price it into every game, offering us a ‘plus price’ return on the Marlins tonight. Miami might well be a better team with the DH in play, as evidenced by the Don Mattingly quote above. The road team has won each of the last six meetings between these two squads since last May, five of those wins coming at an underdog ‘plus price’. Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Marlins. |
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05-03-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | 96-121 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#733) Note the fact that the betting markets are not pricing in any ‘zig-zag’ here, with the Spurs -5.5 for Game 2 sitting in the exact same place as the Game 1 line. And note the HUGE move on the adjusted series price, with San Antonio -310 prior to Game 1 turning into Houston -125 as I write this on Wednesday morning. What are the markets telling us? Why did we see so little of an adjustment on the Game 2 line and so big of an adjustment for the series price? That markets are telling us what we already know – the Rockets are very live to win again tonight against a Spurs team that just doesn’t match up well against them. Houston beat OKC in five games, despite the fact that their three point shooting was abysmal, ranked 15 out of 16 playoff teams in three point shooting percentage. But San Antonio – a team that almost always plays with two big men on the floor – couldn’t match up against the Rockets shooters in Game 1, and Houston drained 22 three pointers in a game that was over by halftime. So how does Gregg Popovich counter tonight? Good question! LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Dwayne Dedmon and Pau Gasol are not capable of chasing down deadeye dicks on the perimeter. So when the likes of Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza are matched up against those big bodies, or when the Rockets play pick and roll with impunity, Houston has a big edge. That Ariza/Anderson duo combined for nine three pointers on Monday, more than capable of doing it again tonight. And when Coach Pop tried to play smallball, Clint Capela and Nene ate up the Spurs in the low post. These are systemic problems for Coach Popovich, not something 24 hours of film study is going to solve. We can expect San Antonio to play better tonight – they can hardly play worse. But the Spurs haven’t beaten the Rockets by any more than six points in any of the five previous games between these two teams this season. James Harden didn’t explode in Game 1 either (only 20 points on 13 shot attempts), something he’s more than capable of doing. The line was 33 points off the final score in the opener, and I’m not convinced that Houston is being priced correctly this time around either. Take the Rockets. |
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05-03-17 | Phillies v. Cubs OVER 6.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Chicago Cubs OVER (#957-958) Yes, it’s going to be a cool evening in Chicago. But that’s not enough to keep me off this Over! The last five Phillies games have all produced eight runs or more – no pitcher’s duels with this team right now. In fact, the Phillies have only played one game in their last 14 tries with less than seven runs scored between the two teams. The Cubs, too, aren’t involved in many pitcher’s duels these days. Chicago is 12-2 to the Over in their last 14 games. They haven’t produced less than seven combined runs in their last seven games at Wrigley Field, a streak that dates all the way back to April 15th. The Cubs are a threat to go Over this total by themselves, just like they did last night. Chicago ranks #4 in the NL in runs scored despite the fact that no everyday starter is hitting better than .291, while big bats Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber are both off to ice cold starts. It’s surely worth noting that Schwarber got off the schnied with a three run bomb last night. And the Phillies lineup, too, is above average in the National League; a team that is consistently taking good swings on their current road trip. Jake Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball in 2015, right through the All Star Break last year. But his ERA went up a full run in his 13 post-break starts in 2016, and he notched only one quality start in four postseason tries. After two solid starts to open the season this year, Arrieta has been hit hard in each of his last three trips to the hill. He’s not the same pitcher right now, plain and simple, off back-2-back 220+ inning seasons. Behind him, the Cubs used several key bullpen arms last night, including closer Wade Davis. Phillies starter Jerad Eichoff isn’t getting many ground ball outs these days, bad news against the Cubs fearsome group of power bats Eickhoff has been hit hard in each of his last two road starts and his pitch counts have skyrocketed over his last two starts overall; unable to consistently find the strike zone. The Phillies bullpen got banged around last night, more than capable of a late game meltdown should we need it. Take the Over. |
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05-02-17 | Phillies v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 105 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the Chicago Cubs (#908) -1.5 on the RUN LINE This is a ‘Grade A’ spot for the home favorite; a matchup that has all the makings of a major blowout from start to finish. Let’s start with this premise: the Cubs can hit. Chicago ranks #4 in the NL in runs scored despite the fact that no everyday starter is hitting better than .283, while big bats Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber are both off to ice cold starts. Joe Maddon’s squad has produced four runs or more nine times in their last dozen games. Nine of their 13 wins so far this season have come by multi-run margins, and this team is poised to tee off against second tier pitching. That’s bad news for Jeremy Hellickson, who has been living on borrowed time. Hellickson was more lucky than good in his last outing against Miami, and his fly ball tendencies work heavily against him here at Wrigley with the wind blowing out to right field. Cubs manager Joe Maddon know Hellickson as well as anybody, his former manager in Tampa – expect Chicago to come with a strong offensive gameplan here against a hurler that doesn’t have a strikeout pitch. Behind Hellickson, the Phillies bullpen is anything BUT fresh, playing for the seventh straight day with each of their last two starters failing to last past the fifth inning. The Phillies have yet to win back-2-back road games this season, and they’re coming off a big blowout at Wrigley last night, snapping a three game skid with a ten run outburst. Don’t expect Philadelphia to tee off on Jon Lester today. Lester’s home/road dichotomy is truly significant – he’s built for Wrigley Field. Last year, Lester had a 1.74 ERA at Wrigley compared to 3.17 on the highway. This year, in two previous home starts, he’s allowed a grand total of one run, but he’s got a 6.06 ERA on the highway after getting shelled at Pittsburgh in his last outing. Behind Lester, the Cubs key bullpen arms are rested and ready following yesterday’s blowout loss. And Chicago’s bullpen is as good as it gets, leading the NL in ERA and batting average against without throwing a ton of April innings. The Cubs aren’t going to have many extended losing streak this year. They’ve lost two straight and four of their last five overall—it’s circle the wagons time for a team that’s only two games out of LAST place in the NL Central. Expect the class difference between these two squads to show early and often tonight! Take the Cubs on the Run Line. |
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05-01-17 | Pirates v. Reds +103 | 3-4 | Win | 103 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#954) I want a nasty young lefty off his worst outing at the big league level! Amir Garrett was not sharp in Milwaukee last time out, and the Reds bullpen had been used up in the two previous games, so Garrett was forced to ‘take one for the team’, allowing nine earned runs in 3.1 innings. Garrett’s postgame quote: “I just wasn't myself today. Everything I threw they were able to hit, they were able to capitalize on my missed pitches, which I had a lot of today. There's going to be days like this. It's how you bounce back. I am definitely going to bounce back from this." Garrett dominated this Pirates lineup in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, throwing six innings of scoreless baseball before allowing a two run dinger that ended his night in the seventh. He struck out 12 Orioles in a dominating seven inning performance in his lone previous start here at the Great American Ballpark. And he’ll be facing a relatively weak Pirates lineup that doesn’t hit lefties particularly well; a Pirates team that has been held to three runs or less 13 times in their first 24 games. The Reds lineup has been clicking; ranked #4 in the NL in OPS this season. Cinci has OWNED Gerrit Cole, who is 0-6 with a 5.44 ERA in 43 innings against them over the past three seasons. Current Reds have hit .303 against him. The Pirates bullpen behind him has been mediocre at best, suffering five late inning losses already this season. Live dog here! Take the Reds. |
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05-01-17 | Raptors +7 v. Cavs | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#723) The Cavaliers played Toronto four times in the regular season. They didn’t win any of those games by more than four points. Three of the games came down to the final possession, the fourth was a Raptors blowout in a game where the Cavs were sitting starters. Cleveland played four games in the first round of the playoffs against a Pacers team with some serious fundamental flaws. The Cavs shot well in the series, particularly in the two home games, when they shot 54% and 55% from the floor while making 24 combined three pointers. Despite that hot shooting, the Cavs didn’t win a game by more than six points in the series, while going 0-2 ATS as home favorites. Their combined margin of victory in an NBA Playoff four game series sweep (just 16 points) was the SMALLEST margin in the history of four game NBA Playoff sweeps. Here’s another one. The Cavs have played nine games against opposing playoff teams at home since the All Star Break. They went 0-8-1 ATS in those ballgames, consistently unable to beat the better teams they face by margin. The Raptors are no upstarts. They faced the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, a series that was tied 2-2 before Toronto finally ran out of gas. And the Raptors reacted strongly and positively to adversity in the first round, rallying back from a 2-1 series deficit with three consecutive wins and covers against the Bucks. The key to that series turnaround was a truly elite defensive effort, something the Raptors are more than capable of doing in this series as well. After picking up Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker at the trading deadline, the Raptors had the fourth ranked defense in the NBA since the All Star Break; a defense worth betting on here. The Cavs ranked #29 in the NBA defensively after the All Star Break. They ranked #13 out of 16 NBA Playoff teams in points allowed per 100 possessions in the first round against Indiana. Kyrie Irving has little chance to stay in front of Kyle Lowry, while DeMar DeRozan has legitimate matchup edges against both JR Smith and Kyle Korver, leaving Cavs coach Tyronn Lue precious few options defensively. The Cavs just aren’t winning by margin right now…… Take the Raptors. |
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04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | 111-123 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#735) The Wizards played a legitimate playoff caliber opponent in the first round. Washington was tested by Atlanta, forced to make adjustments. Their three point shots didn’t fall at all for the first five games of the series. But the Wizards come out of that series with a boatload of confidence, having overcome adversity in a very real way. Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Otto Porter and Bojan Bodganovic all hit multiple three pointers in their Game 6 rout at Atlanta, the type of confidence boosting road win that this team desperately needed. Boston went 0-2 against the Bulls when the Bulls were a playoff team. Then Rajon Rondo got hurt, leaving Chicago without anything resembling a legitimate NBA point guard. Boston won and covered the next four games against a team that wasn’t elite to begin with; a squad that morphed into a much weaker squad once they had to go with the likes of Isaiah Canaan and Jerian Grant at the point. In other words, Washington is here because they earned it; Boston is here because their opponent suffered a key injury and wasn’t the same team thereafter. Boston isn’t going to have anything resembling a point guard edge facing John Wall in this series. Given Isaiah Thomas’s defensive weaknesses, you can make a strong case for Wall as the best point guard in the Eastern Conference this year. And the Celtics aren’t going to have anything resembling a front court edge either. At times, the Wizards struggled against Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap in the Hawks series. I’m not expecting similar problems against the Celtics small ball lineup. Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller and (potentially) Amir Johnson do not present that same challenge. Look for the Wizards to give the Celtics everything they can handle in Game 1, with a solid shot at the outright upset. We’ve already seen sharp $$ show for the Wizards, and I agree 100% with that assessment. Take the Wizards. |
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04-29-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Arizona – Colorado OVER (#959-960) The betting markets have gone nuts betting this game Under the total in early action on Saturday, driving a total that opened at 9.5 down as low as 8.5 in most locations as I do this write-up. Clearly, I disagree with the ‘sharp’ money in this one. The Chase Field roof was closed last night. It is expected to be open tonight. There’s a HUGE difference in how the ball carries between when the roof is open (it carries) and when the roof is closed (those home run balls tend to die at the warning track). In the six games that the roof has been open on this homestand, Arizona has scored 13, 11, 7, 9, 5 and 6 runs while going 5-1 to the Over. That is most assuredly an under-the-radar angle worth backing again here! The Rockies lineup is pounding out runs in bunches too. Yes, they were held to three runs (roof closed) last night, but prior to that, Colorado had pounded out 6, 12, 8, 8, 12, 4 and 5 runs in their previous seven contests, going 6-1 to the Over during that span. Zack Greinke still carries an ‘ace’ level pricetag, and he’s coming off back-2-back gems. Of course, both of those gems came against the light hitting Padres, and Greinke is 4-1 to the Over in his five starts this season. Greinke has struggled against this Colorado lineup, with key bats Charlie Blackmun, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, Mark Reynolds and Trevor Story all enjoyed sustained success against him. Behind Greinke, Arizona’s bullpen has been mediocre at best, more than capable of a late game implosion. The Rockies bullpen got destroyed earlier in the week in their series against the Giants, a suspect unit tonight. That’s bad news with Tyler Anderson on the hill. Anderson has shown extreme vulnerability to the big inning; allowing at least four runs and at least one homer in each of his five previous starts (4-1 to the Over). Current D-backs have hit .500 against him with a 1.283 OPS (short sample size, but still….). Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the OVER. |
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04-28-17 | Phillies +169 v. Dodgers | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#911) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Phillies yesterday in their 3-2 win over Miami. In this ‘big dog’ price range, the Phillies are a clear ‘bet-on’ squad tonight as well. Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up from yesterday, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The betting markets have been underpricing the Phillies all season long. With an 11-9 record, Philadelphia is something of a surprise team thusfar. What’s even more surprising is that the Phillies haven’t been priced higher than -117 in any game this year; even during their current six game winning streak. And there’s little reason to think that the markets have caught up with the Phillies improved play today! “This six game winning streak for Philadelphia is a big deal for a team that has been a bottom feeder: 71 wins last year, 63 in 2015, and zero seasons above .500 since they last won the NL East in 2011. Phillies infielder Maikel Franco, talking about Philly’s recent surge: "We feel really good. Everybody is playing with confidence, and we're playing the game the right way right now." First baseman Brock Stassi: “The way we're playing right now, we're not afraid of anybody. We've faced some good pitching already. The Mets and the Nationals have great pitching staffs. Even the Marlins, too. It goes to show we grind out at-bats." The Dodgers are in letdown mode, coming off an intense series in San Francisco against their arch-rivals that featured back-2-back extra inning games to close out the three game set, burning their bullpen in the process. LA starter Kenta Maeda has been absolutely hammered in all four starts this season, unable to keep the ball on the ground while showing extreme vulnerability to the gopher ball. Even after his start was pushed back so he could work on his mechanics, I don’t trust Maeda to throw at an ace level tonight. Live dog here! Take the Phillies. |
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04-28-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -2.5 | 115-99 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#512) The Raptors closed out the Bucks and the Spurs closed out the Grizzlies last night, each team winning Game 6 on the road. That does NOT mean we’re not going to see any Game 7’s in the first round this year! And this series has been ‘Ground Zero’ for home court edge here in the playoffs, with the home team winning each of the first five games in this series while going 4-1 ATS. We saw a complete reversal in Game 5 from what we saw in Games 3 and 4 at Atlanta in numerous categories. The Hawks bench was the superior unit in both previous home games in this series. In Game 5, Atlanta’s bench was a collective no-show; outscored 26-19. The Hawks nailed 21 three pointers in their two home wins in the series. In Game 5, everyone NOT named Dennis Schroeder combined to make only 4-25 from beyond the arc. The Hawks didn’t pound the ball into the paint in Game 5, taking only 21 free throws after combining for 55 attempts in the two home games. Perhaps the most important point of all is that the Hawks did NOT have their ‘A’ game in Game 5, yet they still covered the spread nearly wire-2-wire, just as they did in Games 3 and 4. For the first time all series, Mike Budenholzer made defensive adjustments that worked to slow down John Wall, held to his lowest point total of the series. And Bradley Beal’s shooting struggles have continued, an ice cold 24% from three point range in this series after hitting 40% of those shots during the regular season. Atlanta has had the dominant frontcourt in this series, with Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard eating up Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat for extended stretches. That becomes even more of a problem tonight, because the Wizards top two big men off the bench are both hurt. Ian Mahinmi has been unable to play yet in this series and Jason Smith is dealing with a calf injury he suffered on Wednesday. That takes a pair of veteran seven footers out of the equation, leaving the door wide open for a Hawks win and cover. Take the Hawks. |
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04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 190 | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Memphis – San Antonio UNDER (#505-506) Game 6 tonight is a potential closeout game between two defensive minded ballclubs; squads that create their identity on the defensive end of the court. We’ve seen plenty of sluggish, low scoring affairs between these two squads this season. When they played in February, these two squads combined for 163 total points. When they played in April, the game stayed Under by 11.5 points…even AFTER five extra minutes for overtime. And Game 2 of this series was another true grinder; another game that stayed Under the total by a double digit margin, with plenty of room to spare. It’s not like we haven’t seen plenty of low scoring games between the Spurs and the Grizzlies…. But we’ve seen three consecutive ‘shootouts’ in this series, with Games 3, 4 and 5 all flying Over the total. Game 5 earlier in the week was the highest scoring game of the bunch; a 116-103 shootout. Neither coach was particularly amused with their team defense. These two quotes are my primary rationale for this Under bet tonight: Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale, following Game 5: “We did not play defense at all. The Spurs did what the Spurs do. Every mistake, they capitalized on, and it ended in a 3 every time." Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, following Game 5: “I wouldn't say we stopped anybody. But you know we made shots, and that's what we didn't do last game." Both teams shot over 50% from the floor on Tuesday Night. There were more made shots in the game than rebounds, by a double digit margin! That’s not what we can expect in a potential series clincher tonight – expect a VERY different offensive flow in Game 6. Take the Under. |
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04-27-17 | Marlins v. Phillies -105 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#952) The betting markets have been underpricing the Phillies all season long. With a 10-9 record, Philadelphia is something of a surprise team thusfar. What’s even more surprising is that the Phillies haven’t been priced higher than -117 in any game this year. During the Phillies current five game winning streak, they’ve been in this same ‘near pick ‘em’ price range in each of their last four contests. And there’s little reason to think that the markets have caught up with the Phillies improved play today! This five game winning streak for Philadelphia is a big deal for a team that has been a bottom feeder: 71 wins last year, 63 in 2015, and zero seasons above .500 since they last won the NL East in 2011. Phillies infielder Maikel Franco, talking about Philly’s recent surge: "We feel really good. Everybody is playing with confidence, and we're playing the game the right way right now." Phillies starter Jeremy Hellickson dominated Miami last year, going 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA in six starts against them. Hellickson has picked up right where he left off – he’s only walked three batters all season and has allowed two runs or less in all four of his previous starts, with the Phillies winning all four of those games! The Phillies bullpen behind him is in good shape after a pair of off days earlier in the week. The Phillies are a hot team right now, worth riding in early start action on Thursday. Take the Phillies. |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 212.5 | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Atlanta OVER (#709-710) Each of the last three games in this series has been a legitimate sweat for total bettors. All three games were lined in this same range, right around 211.5 or 212. The three games finished with 210, 212 and 214 points scored – nary a ‘right side’ to be had with the totals. So what makes tonight’s game different? Two things! But first, let me state that the pace in this series has been frenetic throughout, something I don’t expect to change as the Wizards return home where they have pushed tempo effectively all year. What’s different? The Wizards ranked among the top quartile of NBA teams in terms of three point shooting percentage during the regular season. Here in the playoffs, they rank #15 of the 16 postseason teams in three point shooting percentage, hitting under 30% from downtown. On a team where John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morriss, Otto Porter Jr and Bojan Boddanovic all shot well from three point range during the regular season, there’s ample reason to expect some of those shots to fall here in Game 5. The second factor is how chippy this series has gotten, with a fair bit of bad blood between these two teams already. That sets the stage for a foul fest, especially in the aftermath of a very physical Game 4 after the two teams combined to hit only 37 and 36 free throws in the two games in Atlanta (compared to 57 made free throws in Game 2 and 48 in Game 1). Neither team has shut down their opponent in any game of this series yet, with the loser cracking 100 in three of the four games (and 98 in the fourth) while the winner has been at 109 or higher every time. We saw 212 points in Game 4, despite re the fact that neither squad hit 45% from the floor, the lack of free throw attempts and Washington’s poor three point shooting. All three of those stats (shooting percentage, three point shooting percentage and free throws) are primed for an uptick tonight! Take the Over. |
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04-25-17 | Grizzlies +10 v. Spurs | 103-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#703) Kawhi Leonard has legitimately been unstoppable in this series. Without injured defensive stopper Tony Allen available for Memphis, Leonard has torched the Grizzlies to the tune of 130 points in 147 floor minutes, hitting 58% from the field while going a ridiculous 40-40 from the free throw line. The Spurs finished the season with the second best record in the NBA, while Memphis slumped badly down the stretch: 9-15 SU after the All Star Break. And yet here the series is, tied at 2-2. What gives? Simple – the Spurs have a pair of real matchup problems in this series, matchup problems that aren’t going to disappear overnight. It starts at point guard where Mike Conley is running circles around Tony Parker and Patty Mills. In Game 3, the Spurs won the battle of the boards by nine, hit 47% of their shots including 10-24 from three point range, and they still lost by double digits. In Game 4, Tony Parker somehow finished with a +5 in his 37 floor minutes, with his 22 points matching his season high. Again, the Spurs still didn’t win the game, despite one of their weakest links bringing his ‘A’ game. Meanwhile, Conley has been the second best player in this series, behind Kawhi, and he’s absolutely controlled the flow in the last two games, with the Grizzlies finding (and knocking down) some open looks. Point guard is not the only matchup problem here for the Spurs – they also have no answer for Grizzlies All Star center Marc Gasol, who hit the game winner in Game 4 and has been a dominant low post force throughout this series. Facing a Spurs team that is not built for covering big pointspreads – San Antonio went 2-9 ATS after March 1st laying -8 or higher -- expect the Conley-Gasol combo to keep the Grizzlies competitive throughout. Game 4 went to OT, their final regular season meeting went to OT, and tonight’s game has all the makings of another relatively tight affair. Take the Grizzlies. |
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04-25-17 | Thunder v. Rockets -7.5 | 99-105 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#706) My clients and I cashed a lucky winner with the Rockets in Game 3. We cashed another winner with Houston’s outright upset at OKC in Game 4. And there’s absolutely no reason to jump off the Rockets profit train tonight as they look to close out the Thunder right here in Game 5. As we saw in Game 1, when things go south for the Thunder, this team tends to get annihilated. That’s how 20 of their 35 regular season losses came by double digit margins. That’s how they lost Game 1 by 31 points. Yet the markets see a series that has been extremely competitive. Each of the last three games has been decided by four points or less AND three of the four regular season meetings were decided by three points or less. ‘Competitive series’, say the markets: ‘It’s gonna be tight.’ I couldn’t disagree more. OKC has had the halftime lead in all four games of this series, yet they are one game from elimination. They had Game 2 won and let it get away. They could have won Game 4, but let that one get away too. In the two games at OKC, the Thunder were outscored by a net margin of two points despite outshooting the Rockets 52.4% to 44.6%, including a 45.7% to 30% edge from the three point line. Frankly, how much better can OKC be asked to shoot! James Harden knows what is at stake for the home favorite looking to close out the series and embark on a deep playoff run: “We got to get off to a good start. The whole series, our second halves have been pretty good, especially defensively. We got to get off to a really good start, offensively, get a good rhythm and carry that for four quarters. Just come out with some urgency. We're at home and it's a close-out game. If that's not enough, I don't know what to tell." Expect the appropriate level of focus from Houston tonight, and don’t be shocked if they land a knockout blow relatively early against an OKC squad that might have a bit of a glass chin tonight if they fall behind. Take the Rockets. |
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04-25-17 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – Chicago Cubs OVER (#953-954) Not to get all Biblical on you, but the fact remains: MLB Overs begat more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Weak starting pitching leads to overworked bullpens which leads to more late game bullpen implosions. MLB totals are one of the rare areas in sports where yesterday’s results have a legitimate impact on today’s outcome. Which brings us to the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs opened the season sluggishly on offense, with the cold weather at Wrigley. They’re not cold any more, pounding out 56 runs over the last seven games while going 7-0 to the Over during that span. They had 17 hits and took nine walks last night, showing patience, poise and power! Chicago is a legit threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves again tonight! Gerritt Cole’s only start against the Cubs on this field last year wasn’t pretty: six runs allowed in 4.2 innings of work. Cole hasn’t been eating up innings; yet to record a single out in the 7th this season. And he’s been struggling with the gopher ball, including two more home runs allowed in his last start, bad news against those potent Cubs bats. Behind Cole, the Pirates bullpen is a mess after three of their last four starters failed to finish the fifth inning. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks basically came out of nowhere to throw 190 regular season innings with a 2.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP last year. He followed that up with five postseason starts as well, a career high (by far) in innings pitched. No surprise, then, that we’ve already seen a major decline. Hendricks fastball velocity is down, opposing hitters are smacking his sinker (a pitch they couldn’t hit last year), and Hendricks next quality start will be his first of the young campaign. With a 4.40 career ERA and a .300 batting average against at PNC Park, facing a Pirates lineup that saw him ten days ago, look for Hendricks’ mediocrity to continue here. The Cubs bullpen behind him has four blown saves and four losses already – the door should be open for a late rally here, should we need one. Take the Over. |
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04-24-17 | Blue Jays +122 v. Angels | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#917) The Angels went 74-88 last year, staying Under their season win total while costing their backers plenty; among the bottom quartile of MLB teams in profitability. We’re 20 games into the 2017 season, and the LA Angels are again ranked among the bottom quartile of MLB teams in profitability. I’m not expecting an immediate turnaround starting tonight. The Angels have a pitching problem tonight. Journeyman starter Jesse Chavez was supposed to start on Saturday, but he was forced into the bullpen for the Angels 13 inning loss to the Blue Jays on Friday Night, throwing 25 pitches and allowing three runs; taking the loss. Chavez has a terrible track record against Toronto: 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA, and the Jays know his tendencies well – he pitched 39 games in relief for the Blue Jays last year. LA’s pitching problem tonight doesn’t end with Chavez. Their bullpen has been absolutely destroyed in the first three games of this series. Toronto rallied from behind to beat the Angels bullpen in 13 innings on Friday, scored three more late runs against LA on Saturday and hung six more runs in the eighth and ninth inning on Sunday for another come-from-behind victory. This pen isn’t fresh, they’re not healthy and they’re not very good right now, primed for another late inning meltdown should we need it! LA isn’t hitting lefties like Toronto’s Francisco Liriano, with a dismal .611 OPS in early season play against opposing southpaws. Frankly, LA isn’t hitting anybody right now, held to three runs or less nine times in their last dozen games while going 2-10 during that span. Liriano is coming off back-2-back dominant outings against the potent Red Sox and Orioles lineups, striking out 16 batters while allowing only two runs and 12 baserunners. The Jays pen behind him is perfectly fresh after Marcus Stroman’s complete game yesterday. Wrong team favored here….Take the Blue Jays. |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Washington (#519) I want the Wizards off a bad loss, like the one they suffered in Game 3 on Saturday. The Wiz weren’t ready from the get-go, trailing by 18 points after the first quarter and never cutting the lead to single digits thereafter. Let’s not forget that Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last six tries off a double digit defeat. Nor should we forget that the Wizards are 5-1 SU against the Hawks since last November, consistently taking care of business against Mike Budenholzer’s squad. The Wizards haven’t even played a good game yet in this series. John Wall has been the best player on the floor for either squad. But the Wizards supporting cast – most notably Otto Porter, Bradley Beal and Markieff Morris – are a combined 48-124 shooting in the series, under 39%. Their bench has been every bit as cold, a combined 27-70 (38%) from the floor. And the three point shooting has been even worse, with Porter, Beal, Morris and the bench combining to hit only 17-72 (23%) from downtown. Washington is a very good offensive team, and they’ve hung 109+ in two of the first three games despite that woeful shooting. Markieff Morris, following the Game 3 loss: “We’re missing wide open shots. We must have had, like, 30 of them in the first half alone. It seemed like our legs were heavy or something. It was one of those days. We’ll bounce back. I’m not taking nothing away from them, but we’re better than that.” John Wall agreed: “We had a lot of great looks, a lot of missed shot. We have to be better.” Here’s Wizards head coach Scott Brooks, talking about Bradley Beal: “You know what? I like his looks. I’ve been saying it for the last couple of games. I like his shots. He’s just going to have to keep shooting them. We’re going to have to keep getting him open looks like we have. Every player will go through a stretch of games, a few games, where you’re not going to shoot the ball well. He’ll bounce back.” The Wizards were -13 in Porter’s 24 minutes on Saturday, -17 in Morris’s 29 minutes and -22 in Gortat’s 29 minutes while all there members of the Hawks starting frontcourt were at +22 or higher; basically the exact opposite of what we saw in the first two games of this series. Conceptually, the Wiz are primed to shoot better tonight and the Hawks frontcourt is not primed to dominate at the same level. My pre-series opinion that the Wizards were the better of these two teams hasn’t changed one bit, and this is a ‘Grade A’ spot for the road underdog. Big Ticket: Take the Wizards. |
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04-23-17 | Rockets +1 v. Thunder | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#511) My clients and I cashed a winning bet with the Rockets plus the points on Friday Night. OKC hit 55% from the field in that game and 47% from three point range. Russell Westbrook had another triple double and FOUR of his teammates reached double digits in the scoring column including a ‘where the heck did that come from’ game from Taj Gibson, with his single highest scoring output since joining the team at the trading deadline. OKC avoided turnovers, too, with only 11 for the entire game. All five of their bench players scored at least five points, getting solid production from a very suspect unit. In essence, the Thunder played about as well as they could play, and they still barely won the game, escaping with a two point victory. Houston did not play anything resembling their ‘A’ game, finishing with a woeful 10 assists on 38 made buckets while shooting only 28% from three point range. They still lost by only two, covering the spread in the process. And now we’ve got the Rockets focused and hungry coming off a defeat; a mature enough team to recognize the ‘must win’ nature of this contest to keep them fresh for a deep postseason run. No brainer here – better team, off a loss, catching points. Take the Rockets. |
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04-23-17 | Giants v. Rockies +102 | 0-8 | Win | 102 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#958) There’s no comparison between these two teams right now, regardless of preseason expectations. Yes, the Giants came into April viewed as a potential World Series contender, while the Rockies were hoping to end a near-endless stream of sub-.500 campaigns that dates back to 2011. Those expectations are one of two reason that Colorado isn’t a clear favorite today in a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions right now. Make no mistake about it – the Giants are a mess right now. They’re 3-8 on the highway as part of their 6-12 overall record. Their lineup is ice cold, held to three runs or less five times in their last six games. Nobody on the team has ten RBI’s yet. They just lost their ace, Madison Bumgarner, to a long term injury, a real gut-punch for this squad. And their bullpen is every bit as spotty as last year’s pen; a big part of the reason this team is just 1-6 in one run games. Colorado is 7-0 in one run games, in large part due to an underrated and underappreciated bullpen , a bullpen that leads the NL with a 2.85 ERA in 60 innings of work and leads the majors with ten saves already. This lineup is as potent as it gets, and, quite frankly, Bud Black has this team believing in a way they haven’t ‘believed’ in any recent season. The other reason the Rockies aren’t chalk here is because of a perceived starting pitching edge for San Fran. Yes, Jeff Samardjiza has pitched well at Coors Field in his career, but Kyle Freeland is a ‘bet-on’ hurler today against a Giants lineup that hasn’t seen him before. Freeland wasn’t pleased with his last start: "In that last start, I think I was trying to put every single pitch into a soup can and just like hit a spot perfectly. That kind of worked against me at times, because (there were) a lot of deep counts, a lot of long at-bats, four walks." His quote for today: “(I need to get back) to filling up the zone and attacking hitters.” Right now, that’s a ‘bet-on’ strategy against the slumping Giants lineup. Take the Rockies. |
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04-22-17 | Cardinals v. Brewers +100 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#908) Forget what these two teams were ‘supposed’ to be when it came to preseason expectations, with St Louis lined 15 wins higher than Milwaukee in the season win totals marketplace. Right now, the Brewers are CLEARLY the better of these two teams. Only the Padres have a worse run differential than the Cardinals in the NL right now. The Cards rank 13th out of 15 NL teams in runs scored, batting average and on –base percentage. They rank #14th in OPS and slugging percentage; a team struggling to plate runners on a nightly basis. That’s bad news against Chase Anderson who has been nothing short of outstanding, allowing only three earned runs on 13 hits in his first three starts of the season. Anderson was pretty darn good down the stretch last year too: 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 14 starts after the All Star Break, including a 5.2 inning three hit shutout performance against these same Cardinals. Behind him, manager Craig Counsell saved their key bullpen arms for tonight’s game after falling behind early yesterday. Lance Lynn has not been the same pitcher since missing a full year for elbow surgery, with his velocity at a career low, his strikeouts at a career low and his swinging strike percentage is at a career low. Facing a hot Brewers lineup that ranks #2 in MLB in runs scored and OPS this season, Lynn is primed for a rough outing. And unlike Milwaukee, St Louis used their best arms out of the bullpen last night, setting the stage for a potential late rally if the Brewers don’t bomb Lynn early. Take the Brewers. |
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04-22-17 | Wizards v. Hawks OVER 210 | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Washington OVER (#503-504) Here’s the key quote, from Hawks All Star forward Paul Millsap: “It’s simple. Our small ball is better than theirs. We think we play small ball better than anybody in the league. That is one of our better lineups. We can push the tempo. Get up and down the court.” And Millsap is right. The Hawks ARE at their best when pushing the pace with their ‘small-ball’ lineup. And Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer made a key rotation adjustment in Game 2, sitting Dwight Howard throughout the fourth quarter. Budenholzer: “It spreads the court more. It gets more ball-handlers, more guys who can get to the paint.” When your paint protecting, shot blocking big man is sitting on the sidelines, it’s generally good news for Over bettors. So, we’ve got a Wizards team that plays their best basketball when pushing the pace – John Wall is as quick as any point guard in the NBA right now. Washington has hung 112, 104, 114 and 109 on Atlanta in the four meetings played in 2017. We’ve got a Hawks team that is looking to do the exact same thing. We’re coming off a game in which both teams were ice cold from three point range, a combined 11-42. And yet the markets have adjusted this total downwards from Game 2’s number. Put it all together and the Over in Game 3 is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Over. |
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04-21-17 | Blue Jays +131 v. Angels | 8-7 | Win | 131 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#975) No team in baseball has gotten off to a more disappointing start than the Toronto Blue Jays, sitting at 3-12 as they open their series with the Angels. The betting markets are absolutely crashing on this team right now, to the tune of installing LA as a mid-range favorite despite the Angels own significant struggles. Let me start with the pro-Toronto piece of the equation. First, the single best thing that could happen for the Blue Jays happened – they left town following a truly miserable homestand; a much needed change of scenery. Secondly, while I don’t want Mat Latos long term or in hitter friendly venues, this is the right lineup on the appropriate field for us to back him. Yes, Latos is only here because of injuries to the Blue Jays starting rotation. And yes, after a few good starts last year, Latos got roughed up pretty good; ending the season in the Nationals bullpen. But Latos faced LA once last year, throwing six innings of two hit shutout ball against them. And he was positively brilliant in April, allowing only two runs in his first four starts before things went south. The markets hate this guy with a passion – hence the big plus price -- but he’s ‘bet-on’ all the way in this one! The Angles have no business as chalk here. LA is slumping too, just 1-8 in their last nine ballgames. Their lineup is truly ice cold, producing a grand total of ten runs in their last seven ballgames, half of which came in a single contest. Starter Alex Meyer is no ace in the making, repeatedly failing to live up to his first round draft status. The rebuilding Twins gave up on him last year and the Blue Jays have seen him before, giving them a legitimate edge in a game where Toronto is the underdog. Take the Blue Jays. |
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04-21-17 | Rockets +2.5 v. Thunder | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#717) Let me start by drawing an analogy to the Pacers – Cavs series. Indiana was in position to win Game 1, but they didn’t hit the potential game winner. They roared back from an 18 point deficit in Game 2, but again, couldn’t make the key plays down the stretch to emerge victorious. After the game, Paul George called out his teammates. So when push came to shove in Game 3 and Cleveland went on their big run, the Pacers had neither the confidence nor the level of execution to stem the tide. What does this have to do with OKC? Simple – Russell Westbrook’s ‘ugliest fourth quarter of all time’ in which he ball hogged to a truly ridiculous extent while costing his team the game has the potential to have some real lingering effects. That’s particularly bad news considering that Houston is the better of these two teams, and they’re coming off a game in which they didn’t hit shots….. Here’s the quote from OKC center Steven Adams, who took a grand total of three shots in the Game 2 loss: “We just weren't taking the greatest of shots, and they really capitalized on that. It was a combination of things and our mental stamina needs to be a little better.'' The Rockets were -15 with Westbrook off the court in the six and half minutes that he sat in Game 2. With him on the court, they blew a double digit lead and stunk down the stretch. That’s not an easy dilemma for Billy Donovan to solve. The Rockets were able to win Game 2 despite a mediocre shooting night. James Harden: “It wasn't pretty. We didn't make a lot of shots. We gave them the early lead and we had to fight our way back and we did. We didn't give up. We continued to fight and grind and figure out a way to win." Houston has the better team, the significantly better bench and a legit chemistry edge. If the Thunder find a way to steal this one, I’m not expecting it to come by any sort of margin. Take the Rockets. |
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04-20-17 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Padres | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#907) Padres manager Andy Green knows what’s coming tonight for his starter, Clayton Richard. "Out of any team in baseball he is going to face this year this is probably his toughest matchup. They have guys that will handle left-handed sink. So he has a tough test in front of him. They do have guys that will look over his pitch. He had a tough time with them last year." It’s not like Richard is pitching particularly well against anybody right now, lit up by the Braves and Giants for nine runs in 12 innings over his last two starts while allowing four home runs in the process. The Padres lineup behind him isn’t hitting, held to two runs or less five times in their last six games. The Padres won 1-0 last night, but they’ve been a terrible team to back off a win, notching back-2-back victories only one all season. The Dbacks have been the single most profitable MLB team for their backers in early season play; an undervalued commodity from Day 1 this season. They scored 11 runs on this field in the series opener; a potent lineup in solid current form. The Padres rank #14 out of 15 NL teams in batting average against lefties, hitting just .190 against southpaws like Patrick Corbin. And if this game comes down to a battle of bullpens, the Padres bullpen ERA is more than a full run higher than that of the Dbacks, giving us a solid chance to cash this one late if the Dbacks don’t blow this one open early. Take the Diamondbacks. |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196.5 | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Toronto – Milwaukee UNDER (#711-712) The Bucks and Raptors have played four times since the calendar turned to 2017. Three of the four games stayed Under the total, producing 195 points or less. The only Over cash – in Game 2 of this series – came, in large part, due to uncharacteristically good three point shooting. Milwaukee and Toronto combined to hit 25-52 from three point range in that contest, both squads exceeding their season long three point shooting percentage by double digit margins. That allowed an Over cash despite a relatively slow pace, just like Game 1. Toronto’s gameplan on the highway has been very consistent down the stretch. Dwane Casey wants to avoid turnovers like the plague, and play a half-court game on both ends of the floor. The Raptors were a Top 5 defensive team in the NBA after the All Star Break, and they are a team that doesn’t look to push the pace on offense, very comfortable in their halfcourt sets. No surprise, then, that the Raptors are 16-5 to the Under in their last 21 on the highway. The Raptors hung 106 on Milwaukee when these teams met on Tuesday, and Jason Kidd was not amused, stressing defense to his team in practice and in his media sessions. It’s surely worth noting that the Bucks are 16-4-1 to the Under in their last 21 tries after their opponent hung 100+ against them. And with Toronto finding an effective way to defense Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 2, don’t expect the Bucks offense to be particularly ‘free flowing’ tonight, helping this Game 3 stay Under the total with room to spare. Take the Under. |
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04-19-17 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 212 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Washington - Atlanta UNDER (#701-702) The betting markets have adjusted the Game 2 total higher after Game 1 was played at a torrid pace, leading to a combined 221 points and an Over cash for bettors. I’m not convinced that the adjustment upwards is the appropriate move here! Atlanta has spent the last two days in practice working on transition defense, looking to take the Wizards away from their fast break points. Guard Tim Hardaway Jr: “Transition. Same since Day 1. If we do not get back, it is going to be hard for us to win games.” Head coach Mike Budenholzer: “The thing that stood out the most was was we thought was most important coming into the series which is transition defense. We’ve got to to be better. It’s got to be the priority and the emphasis.” With the Hawks making a concerted effort to slow Game 2 down, it’s worth looking back at the regular season meetings. These two teams played opening night — way too long ago to worry about. But the other three regular season meetings all stayed Under the total by double digit margins, a clear indicator that the Hawks ‘slow it down’ strategy is not some pipe dream. Game 1 was a foul fest as well, with the two teams combining to hit 48 of 56 free throw attempts. Paul Millsap: “We were playing basketball, they were playing MMA’. Considering that the Hawks ranked #28 in free throw shooting this year and that the Wizards ranked #23 in free throws attempted, I’m not expecting another 48 points to be scored with the shot clock off tonight. Take the UNDER. |
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04-18-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -7 | 111-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#528) I’m not a huge proponent of the ‘zig-zag’ theory for NBA Playoff betting; a theory that has been widely proven to be no better than a 50:50 proposition over the past decade. That being said, this is a ‘worthy’ zig-zag spot for a Celtics team that has responded well to adversity all season long AND a Bulls team that has not responded well to favorable situations like this one. The results don’t lie. Brad Stevens squad has been nothing short of awful in the ‘big favorite’ role; a woeful 1-13 ATS when laying -8 or higher. But the Celtics have been just fine in this mid-range favorite’s role, 29-20 ATS when laying -7.5 or less. They’re 21-9 SU off a loss, 18-12 ATS, money winners in that role as well. And let’s be real about what happened in Game 1 of this series. Boston didn’t play well; Chicago played great, especially their superstar Jimmy Butler who was virtually unstoppable down the stretch. The Celtics didn’t earn the #1 seed in the East by accident. They won their two regular season home games against the Bulls by a combined 29 point margin, 2-0 ATS. Chicago’s +17 rebounding edge in Game 1 isn’t likely to be repeated either – Boston won the battle of the boards by +11 in their final regular season meeting. The Bulls have responded well to adversity and poorly to success all season long. Let’s not forget how the Bulls lost to the Knicks and the Nets over the final ten days of the regular season while they were scrapping for this playoff spot, losing each of those games immediately following an impressive victory. And the Bulls spotty bench play - a consistent problem this year – isn’t likely to get the same level of production out of the likes of Bobby Portis, Paul Zipser, Jerian Grant and Cristiano Felicio that they did in Game 1. Celtics bounce back strong here! Take the Celtics. |
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04-18-17 | Tigers +107 v. Rays | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#917) Detroit was lined about five wins higher than Tampa Bay in the season win totals betting markets. The Tigers are in much better current form than Tampa after taking two out of three from the Indians in Cleveland over the weekend, one of the Top 5 MLB teams in profitability already. Tampa is limping home without a day off following a 1-6 road trip. The Tigers certainly have the more potent of these two lineups, ranked #2 in the AL in OPS already. Starter Michael Fulmer held the Rays to one run and five hits in 14 innings of dominant work against them last year. And while the Tigers bullpen is always suspect, the Rays bullpen has already blown three save chances and taken four losses! Live dog here! Take the Tigers. |
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04-17-17 | Indians v. Twins +135 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#964) It’s going to be very difficult to make money betting ON the Cleveland Indians this year. The betting markets aren’t offering any bargains on the Tribe, to put it mildly. Their starting pitching lights up all the advanced metrics ‘bet-on’ checklists. Both their lineup and their bullpen are better than last year’s squad that came within a game of winning a World Series title. And that’s why the Indians are going to be chalk in nearly every game. That would be fine if the Indians were clicking on all cylinders, but they’re not. Since Cleveland’s 3-0 start, they’ve gone 2-7 in their last nine games, favored in every one of those contests. In fact, Cleveland has lost as -220, -150, -200, -230 and -175 favorites…all in the last eight days! Their lineup has been spotty, held to two runs or less in five of their last eight games. Their bullpen has been spotty as well. And starters like Danny Salazar today just haven’t been able to live up to their ‘advanced metric induced’ pricetags. Salazar’s advance metric stats are off the charts. He’s thrown 20 strikeouts in just 11.1 innings of work this year and he keeps the ball on the ground; the exact combo that the betting markets fall in love with. But the Iay prices to support Salazar are, quite simply, out of control. And his track record against the Twins is awful. Current Twins have hit .311 against him with a whopping .383 on base percentage, .621 slugging percentage and 1.004 OPS. In three starts against this squad last year, Salazar lasted a COMBINED 10.2 innings without sniffing a victory. Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson is the antithesis of Salazar, a guy who the advanced metrics (and hence the betting markets) do not support. Six of the eight runs scored against him in his first two starts came on three home run balls. Gibson: “I've given up six of the runs on three swings, and I should be a pitcher that stays away from the long ball. I never should give up three home runs in the first two starts; I need to keep the ball in the ballpark.” The Twins bullpen behind him is rested, with all their key arms available today after working only two innings over the past two games, primed to close out this game effectively in the latter stages. Live dog here! Take the Twins. |
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04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 209.5 | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Indiana OVER (#517-518) The Cavaliers defensive deficiencies have been a major story throughout the second half of the regular season, when Cleveland ranked #29 in points allowed per 100 possessions after the All Star Break, one tenth of one percent better than the #30 ranked, lottery bound LA Lakers. Indiana almost stole Game 1, in large part, due to those Cavs defensive weaknesses. Indiana had open looks throughout, consistently breaking down that suspect Cleveland defense. But the Cavs scored at a 119 points per 100 possessions rate, a rate that could have been a good notch or two higher had Cleveland not missed 13 of their 27 free throw attempts. Noe of this is likely to change in any significant way for Game 2. Cleveland has no switch they can flip to turn a bad defensive team in recent months into an elite, championship caliber defense in the 48 hours since Saturday’s opener. The Pacers really don’t have many answers for the Cavaliers offensive versatility – other than Myles Turner, the Indiana roster combined for two steals and no blocks in Game 1. And Cleveland wasn’t even hot from three point range on Saturday; a team with eight legitimate threats to get hot from downtown and light up the scoreboard in a hurry. Here’s the kicker, turning an initial ‘lean’ towards the Over into an actual wager for Game 2. Tyrone Lue, following the Game 1 victory: “We didn’t push the ball in the fourth quarter. We got stops and we just walked the ball up the floor and that put us in one-on-one situations. We took some bad shots. We didn’t keep playing with the same intensity, the same pace offensively once we did get stops.” Expect the Cavs to push the pace throughout tonight, sending Game 2 Over the total, just like Game 1. Take the Over. |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -103 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Toronto (#504) I don’t put too much emphasis on regular season games, but this season series is worth noting. The Raptors played the Bucks three times with a healthy Kyle Lowry. They went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in those games, including a pair of comfortable wins in Toronto by 22 and 16 points. I don’t put too much emphasis on what happened last year, but the Raptors playoff run is worth noting. Toronto lost Game 1 at home in the first round as seven point favorites against Indiana. Then lost Game 1 at home in the second round as four point favorites against Miami. Toronto went on to win both of those series in seven games, but they had little left in the tank for their Eastern Conference Finals matchup against the Cavs. I’m expecting a particularly focused effort from the home favorite in Game 1 this time around. And when Toronto comes with a focused effort, this team is borderline elite. Make no mistake about it — this year’s Raptors team is a good notch or two better than last year’s squad. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both enter the playoffs with far less wear and tear on their bodies than they had a season ago; a notable difference from last year. The toughness and veteran playoff savvy of Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker cannot be overestimated in comparison to last year’s squad, a team that came up just two wins short of their first-ever trip to the NBA Finals. Let’s be real about this - Toronto is consistently overlooked by the mainstream US audience. They’re not on TV —ever. The Bucks have the young superstar with the cool nickname — Greek Freak — while the Raptors continue to suffer from at least a modest branding problem. That creates a notch or two’s worth of extra value when this team is good, like they’ve been in recent seasons — it really does. The results don’t lie. The Raptors were a Top 5 ATS team this year and they were a Top 5 ATS team last year.Milwaukee has one unsolvable matchup problem against Toronto; a problem that isn’t going to go away. The Bucks are not bulky and physical in the paint. They are a miserable rebounding team — only the Mavericks had a lower rebound rate on misses than Milwaukee this year. Since picking up Tucker and Ibaka at the trading deadline, the Raptors have been a Top 5 team in rebounding margin. That means extra possessions for a focused home favorite. Big Ticket: Take the Raptors. |
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04-14-17 | Angels v. Royals -126 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Kansas City (#924). Sincere apologies; no write-up for this play today. |
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04-13-17 | Brewers v. Reds +103 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#956) One of my favorite things about betting MLB in April is that the betting markets consistently refuse to accept what they’ve seen in early season play. The Cincinnati Reds are a classic example. No, Cinci isn’t going to win the World Series this year, a team that was lined in the range of 69.5 or 70 wins heading into the campaign. But the Reds are in tremendous current form , a streak worth riding not one worth fading. The results don’t lie. Cinci is 7-2 on the campaign. They just swept Pittsburgh, in Pittsburgh, allowing only five runs in the three game series while pounding out 22 runs of their own. While Arizona and Washington have gotten all the headlines for their hot offensive starts, this Reds lineup is every bit as hot, #2 in the NL in OPS and #3 in runs scored per game. Cinci is a ’bet-on’ team right now, plain and simple, but the betting markets haven’t gotten there yet…. The markets almost always prefer the young hurler over the ‘tired re-tread’ veteran. Jimmy Nelson has ‘top of the rotation’ potential for Milwaukee, and he’s coming off a six inning, four hit, one run gem against the Cubs. But we’re talking about a guy with a HUGE home/road dichotomy. Last year’s splits: 3.40 ERA at home, 6.00 on the road. Over the past three years, the splits are nearly as dramatic; not a pitcher worth trusting away from home. Nelson has struggled repeatedly against his divisional rivals, with a particularly ugly stat line at the Great American Ballpark: a 7.20 ERA, a .320 batting average against and a whopping 48 baserunners allowed in just 25 innings of work over five starts here since 2014. Current Reds including Adam Duvall, Billy Hamilton and Joey Votto all have excellent track records against Nelson. The bullpen behind Nelson has taken three losses already in the first ten days of the season. Cinci’s bullpen ranks #1 in the NL in ERA thusfar while holding foes to a .151 batting average against; a ‘bet-on’ unit right now. The markets despise Bronson Arroyo; understandably – he’s 40 years old and he’s coming off elbow and shoulder surgeries that kept him out of action in both 2015 and 2016. Arroyo struggled in his debut at St Louis, but his postgame quote gave me enough confidence to back Cinci here at this attractive underdog price. Arroyo: “It felt like I hadn't really left the mound….. It was a battle. It was a grind, man. I didn't get deep enough in the ballgame to really make a difference. But I felt OK." Take the Reds. |
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04-12-17 | Padres v. Rockies -1.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#902) on the Run Line (-1.5) Rockies lefty starter Kyle Freeland is a ‘bet-on’ hurler right now, severely undervalued in the betting markets. Freeland is no stranger to pitching in altitude, despite the fact that this will be only his second career start at the big league level. Freeland was born in Denver and grew up there as a dominant high school hurler. He was the Rockies #1 pick (#8 overall) in 2014, a top tier prospect. Coming off a strong spring, pitching in a friendly environment against a team that struggles against southpaws, I’m expecting Freeland’s second start to be every bit as good as his first; a six inning, four hit gem against the Dodgers. Behind him, the Rockies revamped bullpen has been nothing short of outstanding thusfar. The Rockies lineup is as potent as it gets, loaded with big power bats like Nolan Arenadao, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmun, Gerardo Parra and Mark Reynolds. This is a problematic matchup for Padres rookie starter Zach Lee. The worst team in the majors (San Diego) just sent two starters to the DL, forcing them to call up Lee from AAA to make only his second career start at Coors Field against an extremely potent lineup. His team (at the time, the Dodgers) lost 15-2 in his lone previous career start, allowing eleven hits and seven runs in 4.2 innings of work at pitcher friendly Citi Field against the Mets. I’m not convinced that this start will go any better. San Diego ranks #13 in the NL in OPS and #15 (dead last) in on base percentage, not exactly tearing the cover off the ball in early season play. Four of their five their losses have come by multi-run margins; not a team that’s digging deep to rally back from behind. The Padres bullpen behind Lee took the loss last night, now ranked #21 in MLB in bullpen ERA. If Colorado doesn’t extend their lead early, they should have ample chances to do so in the latter stages of this contest! Take the Rockies on the Run Line. |
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04-11-17 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Take the LA Angels – Texas OVER (#969-970) I want my money ON the Angels lineup and AGAINST Tyler Skaggs. That sets us up for an Over wager in Anaheim this evening. The Angels lineup has come out of the gate clicking on all cylinders. They lead the AL in runs scored, batting average, on base percentage and OPS, a far cry from the lineup that ranked below the league average in every one of those categories last year. Rangers starter Cole Hamels: “I know Anaheim has tremendous hitters and they're a lot better lineup than they had last year. You look at the strength that their lineup possesses and how they're going to attack them. I need to establish getting quick outs.” Easier said than done! The Rangers bullpen behind Hamels has been a gas can thusfar, allowing 17 runs in just 21 innings of work. Tyler Skaggs was a top prospect when he was drafted, but Tommy John surgery cost him the 2015 campaign and he wasn’t the same pitcher upon his return last year; struggling with both walks and home runs allowed. Those same struggles were on display in his 2017 debut against Oakland – nine fly ball outs compared to only two on the ground, while allowing one home run and three walks. The Rangers are hitting out of the gate, pounding out 19 runs in their three game set over the A’s last weekend and producing five runs or more in four of their first six contests. LA’s bullpen behind Skaggs is more than a little bit dicey. Put it all together and we can expect plenty of crooked numbers on the scoreboard in Anaheim this evening. Take the Over. |
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04-11-17 | Padres v. Rockies -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#960) on the Run Line (-1.5) The Padres beat the Rockies 5-3 yesterday, using up all of their key bullpen arms in the process. When a team with a weak bullpen uses up that pen the day before Jered Weaver makes a start at Coors Field, it’s a clear problem! Weaver is the ultimate tired re-tread, the type of guy who is only going to find a spot in the starting rotation for a true rebuilding bottom feeder. Weaver lasted only 82 pitches in his season debut against the Dodgers last week, never exceeding 86 mph on the radar gun. He allowed a pair of home runs at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium in that debut, fairly typical for a guy who doesn’t induce many ground ball outs. This is his first ever start at hitter friendly Coors, where fly ballers come to die. I’m not expecting it to go well. And with the bullpen behind him looking like a gas can waiting for a flame, the potent Rockies lineup should have ample chances to tee off against the Padres. San Diego ranks #12 in the NL in OPS and #14 in on base percentage, not exactly tearing the cover off the ball in early season play. All four of their losses have come by multi-run margins; not a team that’s digging deep to rally back from behind. Rockies rookie starter Antonio Senzatela has wowed scouts since his arrival from Venezuela. Manager Bud Black: “I like the fastball, like the fastball command. I like the delivery that he repeats. This guy pitches with a fierceness. He has a heartbeat that I think can sustain trouble." Senzatela only walked three batters in 27+ spring training innings. He held Milwaukee to two hits in five scoreless innings against them in his 2016 debut last week. And the Rockies bullpen behind him has been a pleasant early season surprise, capable of maintaining a lead without any obvious risk of late inning shenanigans. Take the Rockies on the Run Line. |
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04-10-17 | Spurs -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NBA Game of the Month: Take San Antonio (#713) Gregg Popovich, following the Spurs home loss to the Clippers on Saturday: “Our execution at both games, defensively and offensively, was very poor. Nobody's going to rest. Everybody's going to play….There's no back-to-backs. There's no bad travel or anything like that, so it's time for rhythm and that sort of thing. Hopefully we'll play better next week. They were more aggressive than we were. They wanted the game more. We were aggressive, got into them and showed the physicality and communication necessary to win against a good team for about six minutes of the third quarter, and that was that. We didn't have enough physical toughness to compete with them." That, folks, is a Hall of Fame head coach calling out his team two games before the playoffs start, on the heels of a home loss to the Lakers earlier in the week. And when Pops calls his team out in a spot like this, I’m all ears, a coach with a proven track record of getting his players to respond appropriately to his message. Expect a focused, concerted effort from the road favorite this evening. The Blazers just concluded a frenetic, furious run to the postseason, clinching the #8 seed with Denver’s loss last night. The Blazers are 16-5 SU since March 1st and 9-1 ATS in their last ten games overall, including a 7-0 SU and ATS run here in Portland. But after clinching last night, expect head coach Terry Stotts to manage his minutes very carefully tonight, most notably in regards to backcourt mates Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, both of whom rank in the Top 16 in minutes played per game this season. And make no mistake about it – the Blazers are NOT the same team without injured center Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup. Nurkic had an instant impact when he arrived from Denver at the trading deadline – just when Portland started to make their run. Since he got hurt, the Blazers have lost the rebounding battle in five straight games. They were bailed out by a 59 point effort by Lillard against Utah over the weekend, on a night where his teammates combined to produce only 42 points between them. Don’t expect another Lillard bailout tonight in a game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Spurs. |
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04-10-17 | Astros +120 v. Mariners | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#917) My clients and I cashed a (very lucky) winning bet against the Mariners yesterday. And there’s ample reason to continue fading this slumping Seattle squad in afternoon action today as they take on the Astros in their 2017 home debut. Let’s not sugarcoat what happened in Seattle this week. The Mariners spent a small fortune upgrading their roster in an effort to be legitimate contenders in the AL West this season. But they’ve came out of the gate struggling mightily, in every way. Even after a nine run explosion in a losing effort yesterday, the Mariners rank dead last in the AL in batting average, on base percentage, OPS and slugging percentage. Their bullpen allowed seven runs in the ninth yesterday, using up all their key arms in the process. That pen has suffered three losses already, with a 7.33 ERA and an AL worst .315 batting average against. Mariners starter James Paxton faced Houston three times last year. He lost both starts at home to the Astros, finishing the season with a 5.82 ERA against them. After allowing only two hits against this lineup in Houston last week, I’m expecting the Astros to hit him much harder in a short turnaround second look situation. This Astros lineup is built to smack around quality lefties! Houston’s pitching has rock solid from Day 1 this year, and starter Charlie Morton is something of an undervalued commodity. Morton drew nothing but positive reviews in spring training, and he shut down Seattle at home last week. Expect more of the same here in a classic early season ‘Wrong Team Favored’ spot against a Mariners squad still shell shocked off yesterday’s blown game! Take the Astros. |
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04-09-17 | Cavs -2 v. Hawks | 125-126 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#503) The Cavs weren’t just beaten by the Hawks in the first half of this ‘home and home’ on Friday Night – they were flat out embarrassed at home. Atlanta sat many of their key guys, including Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap, Dennis Schroeder and Kent Bazemore. They still won by 14 as 15.5 point underdogs, controlling the flow throughout. Lebron following the loss: "The energy level was just real bad… You expect for us to want to get better and we were doing that and we took a couple steps back tonight.” Cavs head coach Tyrone Lue: “Obviously a bad performance. To beat Boston and have the game that we had and to come back and not validate it against a team that didn't even play their guys. I didn't think we respected them tonight. I thought we thought we'd just mess around with the game until it was time to knuckle down…..Trying to hold onto that No. 1 seed and getting rest and you come out and have a performance like this, it's not good." Expect a different energy level from the Cavs today – period. And in those few regular season games where we can expect Cleveland to show up with max intensity, the Cavs are as ‘bet-on’ as it gets….as we saw in Boston last week. The Hawks are 2-10 ATS at home since the All Star Break including five outright losses as chalk. Even the two SU and ATS wins during this entire span come with asterisks. They beat the Raptors by six as three point chalk on a night where Toronto had just lost point guard Kyle Lowry and shot an ugly 4-25 from three point range. Had the Raptors hit 20% from beyond the arc in that game, the Hawks would be 0-fer ATS at home for the last eight weeks. And they beat the Celtics despite allowing 116 points, one of only two games all season they’ve allowed more than 110 in regulation in a winning effort. Coming off back-2-back statement game wins, Atlanta is NOT a team I trust to hang tough with a focused Cavs squad today! Take the Cavs. |
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04-09-17 | Mariners v. Angels -114 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Take the LA Angels (#978) Let’s not sugarcoat what’s happening in Seattle this week. The Mariners spent a small fortune upgrading their roster in an effort to be legitimate contenders in the AL West this season. But they’ve come out of the gate struggling mightily, losing three out of four at Houston earlier in the week, then dropping the first two games here in LA. The problem? Simple – this squad can’t hit a lick right now. The stats do not lie. Seattle ranks dead last in the major leagues in runs per game. They rank dead last in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. And it’s not like they’ve been facing one ace after the next – the Mariners haven’t been able to hit the likes of Ricky Nolasco and Jesse Chavez in the first two games of this series. That’s bad news against Matt Shoemaker today. In his season debut against the A’s in his first big league start following a line drive off his skull that ended his season early last year, Shoemaker wasn’t dominant, needing 99 pitches to last through five innings while giving up a pair of home runs. Angels manager Mike Scioscia: “'Shoe' struggled, a lot of pitches to get through five innings. He had a lot of traffic on the bases. He got some big outs when he needed it. The walks were uncharacteristic and he gave a lot of counts away. He'll be better next time." I concur! The Angels bats are in fine current form, pounding out five runs or more in four of their last five contests. Their bullpen has been stellar thusfar: 3 wins, 2 saves and 25 strikeouts in just 19.2 innings of work, with a .203 batting average against. Meanwhile, Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma is just 1-3 with a 3.92 ERA at Angels Stadium over the last three seasons while notching only one win in five starts against LA last year….when Seattle was clearly the better of the two teams. That may not be the case here in 2017, making this a cheap price to lay against a struggling Mariners squad. Take the Angels. |
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04-08-17 | Heat +5.5 v. Wizards | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#707) The Heat have fought tooth and nail in nearly every game for the better part of the last three months, while going 27-11 SU following their 11-30 start. Yet Eric Spoelstra’s squad is still on the outside, looking in, at the #8 seed in the East. Miami covered the spread in a two point loss at Toronto last night, despite Hassan Whiteside dealing with foul trouble. Miami point guard Goran Dragic, following the defeat: “You can see that this team has a lot of grit. Even when we are own big we still fight to the end. We came back, we tied the game and they got that big 3 by Ibaka. Unfortunately, we couldn't defend well, especially in the end, but I am proud of my guys' heart, that they didn't give up.” The Heat have been nothing short of outstanding in this role. They’re 12-2 ATS on the second night of back-2-backs. And, incredibly, the Heat are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 tries as underdogs since their last ATS loss in this role – an eight point loss at Milwaukee as 7.5 point underdogs back on January 13th. Both of those are ongoing, under-the-radar angles that are NOT appropriately reflected in the betting markets. To call the Washington Wizards a tired team right now would not be an overstatement. In 25 games since the All Star Break, the Wizards have changed courts 21 times. Their longest homestand has been two games long, and they made two extended West Coast trips in March while playing 13 of their last 18 on the highway. Head coach Scott Brooks has a problem moving forward and he knows it – his veterans have played too many minutes. John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter all rank among the Top 17 players in the NBA in minutes played this year, with Marcin Gortat checking in at #30 on that chart. To put those numbers in perspective, no other team has three players in the Top 20 or four players in the Top 30 of minutes played. Right now, rest is more important than wins for this squad, plain and simple. The Wizards and their backers enjoyed one of the best pointspread hot streaks in the NBA this season, going 22-6 ATS from the second week of December through early February, an extended run of excellence. But the markets caught up and the Wizards level of play has decline – they’re 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games, with two of those covers coming against bottom feeders (Nets -11, Lakers -9). In other words, the Wiz have NOT been covering pointspreads against competitive opponents in recent weeks, bad news for Wizards backers laying the chalk tonight. Take the Heat. |
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04-08-17 | Yankees v. Orioles -105 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#922) The betting markets are not enamored with the Baltimore Orioles. The markets react strongly to elite starting pitching; that isn’t the Orioles area of strength. That’s a big part of the reason why Baltimore ranked #2 in the majors in profitability last year. They were a .500 team in 2015, yet they still finished in the top half of MLB in profits. In 2014, the Orioles were the single most profitable team to support. In 2013, they ranked #12. They were #2 in 2012. Heck even as a 69-93 team in 2011, the Orioles weren’t an ROI disaster, down less than five units. Aand since the end of that season, Baltimore has CONSISTENTLY been the single most undervalued team in all of baseball. That hasn’t changed in 2017. The betting marketplace is even MORE tilted towards those supposedly elite starting pitchers; a marketplace that is absolutely dominated by advanced metrics – numbers that don’t show the Orioles pitchers in a particularly good light. Hence the pick ‘em price range today for a matchup against the Yankees, a team with only one victory on the season, coming off a game in which they blew a 5-1 lead. The Yankees bats aren’t hitting, averaging only 3.5 runs per game while scoring five or less in every contest. I don’t expect that to change here. Baltimore’s Kevin Gausman has owned this lineup. Current Yankees have a woeful .558 OPS against him, with only two RBI’s in 155 career at bats. In six starts against the Yankees last year – 41 innings of work – Gausman allowed a grand total of five runs. Baltimore’s bullpen behind him has yet to allow a single run this season. The betting markets LOVE them some Masahiro Tanaka. $$ poured in on Tanaka in his opening day start at Tampa, but he allowed three runs in the first, two more in the second and two more in the third before getting pulled. Baltimore’s big power bats have feasted on Tanaka, going yard six times against him in just 91 combined at bats. And the Yankees pen behind him isn’t rested after blowing the game last night. Take the Orioles. |
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04-07-17 | Kings +2 v. Lakers | 94-98 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento (#517) Let’s make this very clear: the Lakers have no interest in winning this game, yet they are the favorite tonight against Sacramento. Don’t be fooled for a minute by LA’s current two game winning streak. LA took advantage of a slumping, tired Grizzlies squad, despite allowing poor shooting Memphis to hit 50% from the floor against them. And LA’s win on Wednesday over the Spurs should come with about eight asterisks! Let’s make this very clear: Greg Popovich isn’t allowed to say that he ‘threw’ an NBA game, but that’s exactly what he did against the Lakers on Wednesday. Pops emptied his bench, and kept it that way – Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge all played 16 minutes or less, and the Spurs didn’t put up anything resembling a fight. Was Luke Walton trying to win the game? Read between the lines of this quote, talking about how he blew off practice the day before the game, giving his team a break: “ It was good to break things up and get out of the routine a little bit. You always take that into consideration. But there’s (a few) games left and player development is the most important thing for us. Doing things like that is great for the guys. We’re going to have plenty of practice time this summer together.” LA hasn’t won three straight games since the first week of November. They’re 3-7 ATS as favorites this year, including a loss to the Kings on this floor the last time these two teams met. LA will lose their #1 draft pick to Philly unless it’s a top three pick. Losing legitimately matters here! Walton knows it. He tried to lose to San Antonio, benching his starters throughout the fourth quarter, with little used Metta World Peace, Tyler Ennis, Tarik Black and Thomas Robinson getting the crunch time minutes. That’s not a rotation worth laying points with! Sacramento is playing out the string as well, but the Kings haven’t quit. They’re not benching all their key players in the fourth quarter to try and lose; coming off back-2-back solid victories against Minnesota and Dallas. The likes of Buddy Hield, Ben McLemore, Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein are all building blocks for the future, taking advantage of their extra playing time in recent weeks. Wrong team favored her! Take the Kings. |
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04-07-17 | Dodgers v. Rockies +131 | 1-2 | Win | 131 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#956) The Dodgers went 69-47 against right handed pitchers last year. They were two games UNDER .500 against opposing southpaws. The Dodgers went 3-0 to open the season against three Padres right handers, pounding out 27 runs on 28 hits. But they are 0-1 against southpaws, held without an extra base hit in a shutout loss, with a .570 OPS and a .190 batting average in 42 at bats against opposing lefties. Rockies lefty starter Kyle Freeland is no stranger to pitching in altitude, despite the fact that this will be his first career start at the big league level. Freeland was born in Denver and grew up there as a dominant high school hurler. He was the Rockies #1 pick (#8 overall) in 2014, a top tier prospect. Coming off a strong spring, pitching in a friendly environment against a team that struggles against southpaws, I’m expecting Freeland’s debut to be rock solid. Behind him, the Rockies revamped bullpen has been nothing short of outstanding thusfar, with a 1.88 ERA in 19 strikeouts in 14.1 innings of work in their just concluded four game set at Milwaukee. The Rockies lineup is as potent as it gets, loaded with big power bats like Nolan Arenadao, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmun, Gerardo Parra and Mark Reynolds. This is a problematic matchup for Hyun Jin Ryu, making only his second start since 2014 following a devastating shoulder injury. Reports out of spring training had his fastball clocked in at less than 90 mph, a legit velocity problem, and his track record against the Rockies lineup – when he was an ace level hurler in 2013 and 2014 – isn’t very good. The betting markets have gone berserk in early betting action on Friday, steaming the Dodgers from +100 at the opener to as high as -145 as I write this before the first pitch. That’s too much steam for this matchup, giving us ample value to support the Rockies as home underdogs in a game I expect them to win. Take the Rockies. |
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04-06-17 | Celtics -1.5 v. Hawks | 116-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#709) Not many playoff teams have played worse basketball than the Atlanta Hawks in recent weeks, and no playoff team has played worse basketball at home than the Hawks since the All Star Break. The results do not lie. Atlanta has lost nine of their last eleven overall, including an ugly loss at lowly Brooklyn in their last outing; their second loss to the Nets in a ten day span. And the Hawks are a truly woeful 1-10 ATS at home since the All Star Break including five outright losses as chalk. Even the one SU and ATS win during this entire span comes with an asterisk – they beat the Raptors by six as three point chalk on a night where Toronto had just lost point guard Kyle Lowry and shot an ugly 4-25 from three point range. Had the Raptors hit 20% from beyond the arc in that game, the Hawks would be 0-fer ATS at home for the last eight weeks. This is NOT a team I trust to hang tough with quality competition right now. The Celtics have been outstanding ATS all year in three roles. They’ve been an excellent pointspread team on the highway (23-15-1 ATS). They’ve been an solid, winning team on the second night of back-2-backs (10-6 SU). And they’ve been an excellent pointspread team off a loss (20-8 SU, 17-11 ATS). They’re in all three of those roles tonight. And I want Boston off a ‘statement’ game loss like the one they suffered against Cleveland last night; a no-show form the get-go in arguably their biggest game of the season. Character teams like the Celtics tend to be fairly strong ‘bet-on’ squads following a dismal effort like the one we saw last night. Brad Stevens, following that loss: “You name it, they were better in every category and made it really tough on us. They played with more purpose, more pace. Again, you name it, they won it. I thought we were missing, too. We got some reasonable looks when we were playing inside-out." Expect a strong bounceback here! Take the Celtics. |
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04-06-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Chicago – St Louis OVER (#925-926) (Abbreviated write-up for this early start game) Simple concept here. We’ve got two right handed ‘fly ball’ pitchers facing off against two lineups loaded with potent left handed bats. We’ve got a strong, steady wind in the 20 mph range blowing out to right field. We’ve got a very reasonable total of 7.5 to work with on what looks like a fine afternoon for baseball. Last, but not least, home plate umpire Quinn Wolcott has a narrow strike zone. He’s been calling balls and strikes at the big league level since 2013, and he’s yet to have a season in which he’s called more Unders than Overs. Take the Over. |
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04-05-17 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Rockets | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#507) The Nuggets and Rockets have played twice since the All Star Break. Houston won both games, but both outcomes were in doubt right through the final minute of play, with the Rockets winning by a combined total of five points. They’re laying in the -8.5/-9 range as I do this write-up on Wednesday morning, the wrong ‘price range’ for this matchup. Houston is the ultimate ‘nothing to play for down the stretch’ playoff squad, locked into the #3 seed in the West. Head coach Mike D’Antoni sat James Harden and Trevor Ariza on Sunday despite the Rockets having lost three straight at the time. Sam Dekker and Ryan Anderson are both out this evening. Houston is talking the talk about playing hard and winning games down the stretch, but they just had two days completely off, without practice or film study, and I’m not expecting their ‘A’ game tonight. Eric Gordon’s quote stands out too: “We've got to focus in on having everyone healthy before the postseason starts.” Denver’s got seven players into the double digit scoring column with a momentum boosting win at New Orleans last night, now only half a game behind the Blazers for the final playoff spot in the West. They’ve gotten Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler back in the lineup while winning tough games against fellow playoff contenders Miami and New Orleans already on this road trip. Head Coach Mike Malone: “A lot of people keep counting us out. We lose three in a row and a lot of people kind of give up. Everyone in that locker room is remaining positive and optimistic, and we’re going to play this thing out.” Take the Nuggets |
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04-05-17 | Pirates +170 v. Red Sox | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#979) This is the wrong price range for this matchup, plan and simple. Yes, underdogs have been bankroll burners over the first few days of the season, with dogs of +100 or higher just 1-12 over the last two days. That won’t continue indefinitely, and the Pirates have all the makings of a rock solid ‘live underdog’ at Fenway this evening. I have no hesitation betting against Chris Sale in his Fenway debut. Sale is an ace, for sure, but he’s not a great fit for Fenway, with a modest 4.12 ERA in three previous career starts on this field. I worry about Sale being jacked up too much today as well. Manager John Farrell: "From the first phone call with Chris when we acquired him, the way he spoke about the opportunity here, I know (Wednesday) is a day that he's certainly looking forward to.” Pirates starter Jameson Taillon is an ace in the making: a potential Sale without the price tag attached to him! The former #2 overall pick back in 2010, Taillon has dealt with more than his fair share of injuries, but he’s the epitome of an ‘upside’ hurler in early season play. And with slugger Andrew McCutcheon coming off an 0-fer opening day, including a bases loaded strikeout with the game on the line in the seventh, no surprise here if the Pirates bats come alive here, both against Sale and the still somewhat suspect BoSox bullpen behind him. Take the Pirates. |
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04-04-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers – San Diego OVER (#907-908) The Padres gave up 14 runs on opening day. With the worst starting staff in the majors, we can expect San Diego to endure more than their fair share of ugly defeats this year. San Diego’s bullpen is every bit as problematic as their starting staff; a unit that allowed five earned runs in 4.2 innings of work yesterday, with four different relievers getting used up. Today’s matchup isn’t any better for the Padres pitching staff with that same ‘gas can’ bullpen coming behind Clayton Richard this time around. Here’s what Padres manager Andy Green had to say about Richard facing the Dodgers lineup: “He’s a guy who relies heavily on the sinker and you know this is a team (LA) that honestly handles sinkers well, so he's got a challenge in front of him…..” It’s a challenge that I don’t expect Richard to pass. It’s going to be very expensive to bet against the Padres this year. Clayton Kershaw was -360 on opening day; Kenta Maeda is in the -225 range as I do my write-up. But there’s no extra juice to lay betting these Padres games Over the total; my preferred method of fading San Diego right now. Let’s not forget that for as bad as the Padres pitching staff is, this team has a good handful of solid bats. It’s important to note that the Padres didn’t quit in the latter stages yesterday, taking good at bats right through the ninth inning against the modestly suspect Dodgers bullpen. No surprise here if we get to eight runs rather early in this one, and even if we don’t, the stage is set for some late inning shenanigans to help push this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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04-04-17 | Hornets +4 v. Wizards | 111-118 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Charlotte (#707) To call the Washington Wizards an exhausted team right now would not be an overstatement. In 23 games since the All Star Break, the Wizards have changed courts 19 times. Their longest homestand has been two games long, and they made two extended West Coast trips in March while playing 12 of their last 16 on the highway. They closed out their latest West Coast trip with their third consecutive loss, blasted at Golden State on Sunday. Washington has absolutely nothing to play for down the stretch. The Wizards are locked into a Top 4 seed in the East – they’ll have homecourt edge in the first round even if they lose their last five games Head coach Scott Brooks has a problem moving forward and he knows it – his veterans have played too many minutes. John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter all rank among the Top 17 players in the NBA in minutes played this year, with Marcin Gortat checking in at #30 on that chart. To put those numbers in perspective, no other team has three players in the Top 20 or four players in the Top 30 of minutes played. Right now, rest is more important than wins for this squad, plain and simple. The Wizards and their backers enjoyed one of the best pointspread hot streaks in the NBA this season, going 22-6 ATS from the second week of December through early February, an extended run of excellence. But the markets caught up and the Wizards level of play has decline – they’re 3-9 ATS in their last dozen games, with two of those covers coming against bottom feeders (Nets -11, Lakers -9). In other words, the Wiz have NOT been covering pointspreads against competitive opponents. Charlotte is on the other end of the ‘momentum’ spectrum; 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine ballgames including SU road wins at Oklahoma City, Toronto and Orlando. Unlike the Wizards with nothing meaningful to play for, the Hornets are fighting tooth and nail for one of the last playoff spots in the East, and they’ve still got work to do. With their bench playing at the highest level they’ve played at all year and Kemba Walker demonstrating plenty of ‘refuse to lose’ mentality, the Hornets are live to win this game in SU fashion, with the points providing us a nice, generous little cushion if they fall just short Take the Hornets. |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina -1 v. Gonzaga | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina (#601) The game comes down to two key concepts for me. First, no mid-major team has won a national title in the modern era of college basketball. Here in the 21st century, we’ve seen Butler reach this game twice. Memphis got here as well. But the mid-majors haven’t been able to seal the deal and come home with the trophy. I do not view Gonzaga as the exception to that rule. Secondly, North Carolina really didn’t play a good game on Saturday Night. Other than Kennedy Meeks, the Tar Heels combined to shoot 14-55 from the floor, just 25% shooting. Point guard Joel Berry hit his first shot of the game, then missed 13 of 14 the rest of the way while finishing with only two assists. Isaiah Hicks hit only one of his 12 shot attempts. For a team that shot 45% for the season, I’m not expecting another game where very few of their open looks fall. Contrast that with the Zags who still didn’t cover the pointspread in their win over South Carolina despite huge offensive games from just about every key player. Jordan Matthews was raining three’s; Przemek Karnowski and Zack Collins combined for a dozen makes in the low post and Nigel Williams Goss played his best game of the tournament. The Zags just played their best game, and they’ve not been on this stage before. The Tar Heels are coming off a ‘very lucky to survive’ game, primed to make a statement after getting all the way back to the national title game that they lost last year. In this pointspread range, where a SU win should equate to the pointspread cover, the Tar Heels are the only way I can look. Take North Carolina |
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04-03-17 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8 | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Seattle OVER (#963-964) King Felix faced the Astros twice last year. Neither game was pretty – he allowed 19 hits and 14 runs in just ten combined innings of work. Hernandez made one start against the Astros in 2015. It was the worst start of his career: eight runs allowed in 1/3 of an inning. For a guy who has seen his velocity drop significantly over the last few years, this former ace has a big name, but he’s an easy fade against the potent Astros lineup that is more than capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves. Dallas Keuchel won the AL Cy Young Award following the 2015 season. Don’t expect him to win another one anytime soon, a guy who overachieved dramatically to earn that award! Keuchel regressed mightily last year, finishing with a 0.5 WAR following a 7.2 WAR in 2015. Current Mariners have hit him well, with a .293 average and seven dingers in 147 at bats against him. These are two downright scary lineups right now, after an offseason filled with activity for both squads. And, as we saw very clearly on Sunday, MLB bullpens aren’t primed to come in on opening day and shut quality opposing lineups down. We’ve got legit ‘Slugfest’ potential early here, and even if that doesn’t come through, we’ve got a solid shot to get some late inning shenanigans in this one, sending it Over the posted total. Take the Over. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Gonzaga (#812) Looking back at my Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook from back in October (a ‘must read’ for serious college hoops bettors), most of the Final Four is no surprise. North Carolina, Oregon and Gonzaga all ranked among the Top 14 teams in the country heading into the campaign, and they’ve all (obviously) lived up to their potential. South Carolina, on the other hand, was picked as the #9 team in the SEC; a conference with only one team in their Preseason Top 25. Yes, the Gamecocks played better than expected during the regular season, but they still lost ten games and were a long, long way from being anywhere near ‘elite’; particularly on the offensive end of the floor. So how have the Gamecocks managed to win four tough games over the past two weekend, including impressive upsets over Duke, Baylor and Florida? Simple – hot shooting! A team that barely averaged 70 points per game in their first 32 contests has averaged 82 ppg in the Big Dance while shooting 48% from the floor. Sindarius Thornwell has been on fire, scoring 24+ in all four tourney games, but it’s been the inconsistent supporting cast that has been the difference maker, with at least four players reaching the double digit scoring column in every tourney game. I don’t believe that the Gamecocks balanced scoring and hot shooting continues here. This matchup does not favor their offensive chances of success. Gonzaga is still standing only because of their defensive acumen -- West Virginia would have beaten them without some terrific Zags defense. Mark Few’s squad is the #1 ‘adjusted defensive efficiency’ team in the country. They’ve held opponents to under 35% shooting in this tournament, not atypical of what they’ve done all year. Few: “This is the best defensive team I’ve coached in my 18 years at Gonzaga.” When an elite defense meets up with a suspect offense, we can expect problems for that suspect offense. As a team, the Gamecocks have precious little experience in big games and big venues like this one. Sophomore guard PJ Dozier, talking about playing in front of 75,000 fans in Glendale: “I can't even imagine it. I have no idea what to expect.” Gonzaga, on the other hand, has all kinds of big game experience, both this year and in recent seasons. They beat Florida and Iowa State in the HP Fieldhouse in Kissimmee, Florida. They beat Arizona at the Staples Center in LA and knocked off Tennessee in Knoxville. I trust this squad to execute their gameplan in this type of environment far more than I trust the Gamecocks to do likewise. Gonzaga has faced several really tough defenses in this tourney – they’re battle tested now, not going to be overwhelmed by the Gamecocks defensive pressure. The Zags are far more efficient in their half court sets offensively than their opponent – when South Carolina isn’t generating turnovers in bunches, they’re not scoring points in bunches. And, crucial in this pointspread range, the Zags hit their free throws (despite some struggles last weekend) at a 72% clip, capable of extending this lead in the final minute should we need it. Big Ticket: Take Gonzaga. |
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03-31-17 | Nuggets +2 v. Hornets | 114-122 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#501) Let me start with an excerpt from my last write-up betting against the Hornets; a winning bet from earlier in the week when they lost at home to Milwaukee by double digits, a game they were down 20 at home before halftime. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “Charlotte was a playoff team last year, finishing with 48 wins and the #6 seed. The markets still remember and respect that team, in some ways overshadowing the 34-41 squad from this year in the betting world. The Hornets did their best to blow a 25 point second half lead against a Suns team playing on the second night of back-2-backs in their last game, on the heels of a defensive no-show against the Cavs in their previous contest. Charlotte is not primed to make a ‘statement’ type late season run.” But the Hornets are coming off a hot shooting road victory as underdogs in Toronto on Wednesday. Worrisome? Not really, if we believe this quote from Raptors head coach Dwane Casey: “We had a couple of breakdowns in coverage, mistakes we usually don't make. (The Hornets) made every shot and you have to shake their hands in that situation.” I’m not expecting Charlotte to ‘make every shot’ down the stretch again tonight. The Nuggets have lost back-2-back games, dropping them to the #9 seed in an 8 berth playoff race. But all the quotes coming out of this locker room scream ‘bet-on’, especially when we consider that Denver hasn’t lost three straight games since the first week of January; 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 tries off a defeat. Nuggets guard Gary Harris: "(The playoffs are) definitely still attainable… who says (the Trail Blazers) can't drop a few games? They've got a tough schedule just like us. Anything can happen. We just have to keep fighting to the end." Nuggets head coach Mike Malone: “I've been in the league a long time, and you expect the unexpected. If we stop believing and letting go of the rope, it could get ugly. I didn't get that sense (Thursday). Our guys are disappointed that we had a bad home loss against New Orleans and a tough loss against a Portland team that is playing very well. We have an opportunity to get back on track." Expect them to ‘get back on track’ tonight in Charlotte! Take the Nuggets. |
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03-30-17 | Nets +6.5 v. Pistons | 89-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#701) I can do this write-up in a single sentence: ‘The Detroit Pistons cannot be laying points.’ Period. Three weeks ago, the Pistons were primed to make their second straight playoff appearance, ending a long string of lottery appearances. Since then, the bottom has dropped out, with eight losses in their last nine games. That stretch includes SU losses as favorites against the Knicks, Magic, Bulls, Raptors and these same Nets that they’ll face tonight. The Pistons last second loss to Miami on Tuesday was the final nail in their coffin, a truly demoralizing defeat for a squad that isn’t handling adversity well these days. So, while the mainstream power rating numbers say that the Pistons MUST be favored this evening, Detroit is a clear fade as a team being asked to win by margin this evening. The Nets have beaten the Pistons in both previous meetings this year and there’s no reason to think they can’t pull off the season sweep tonight! Brooklyn has played their best ball of the year in recent weeks: 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 ballgames. With Jeremy Lin healthy and starting at the point guard position again, the Nets are competitive, not hopeless. And this is a clear ‘step up’ spot for the road underdog, coming off a bad loss at home to Philly earlier in the week. Lin’s quote, following the defeat: “I just felt like we relaxed a little bit after we won three of four, and it's a valuable lesson for us to be able to learn that this league is tough on any given night. I'll be the first person to say that I didn't play nearly close to what I'm capable of, so I have to live with that and just get better for the next one." Expect them to actually be ‘better for the next one’ tonight! Take the Nets. |
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03-29-17 | Heat -3 v. Knicks | Top | 105-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#507) It’s not hard to make a case for betting ON the Miami Heat. After all, Miami is 25-8 SU in their last 33 games, the single best ‘turnaround’ story in the NBA this season, fighting hard for the final playoff spot in the East. Head coach Eric Spoelstra: "Our guys want this so bad. They really care about each other. They've developed such a strong bond. Guys really love each other. They want to play well for each other. It's bigger than just themselves….We feel like there's something special with this group, but nothing's guaranteed. We believe in that energy and that karma. We believe that because we went through so many frustrating games at the end that it developed some toughness.” The Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last eleven tries on the second night of back-2-backs, a testament to this team’s intestinal fortitude. They’re 5-0 ATS on their last five visits to Madison Square Garden, owning this sorry Knicks squad. And the Heat are 5-0 ATS following at pointspread loss, like the one they suffered in Detroit last night; most assuredly a team worth betting ON in a spot like they’re in tonight. It’s not hard to make a case for betting AGAINST the New York Knicks, especially in a game where they’ll need to win – or come pretty darn close – in order to cash the bet. New York beat Detroit on Monday on a rare hot shooting night, hitting 54% from the floor. ‘Melo, following the win: “It was kind of a ‘must win’ for team morale.” Their last set of back-2-back wins came before Christmas, just 12-33 overall and 6-14 at home since that time. Following their last victory, New York lost by double digits as home favorites against Brooklyn. And coming off a ‘must win for team morale’ I have a hard time believing they can match that intensity tonight. The kicker here – what makes this play worthy of Big Ticket status – is the betting market reaction to the announcement that the Knicks would play both Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony tonight, signifying that they supposedly aren’t tanking. But they are tanking! Head coach Jeff Hornacek: “When you're not in the playoffs, everyone looks at the best draft pick you can get. It's hard.” Expect it to be VERY hard for the Knicks to remain competitive in this one for four full quarters. Big Ticket: Take the Heat. |
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03-28-17 | Bucks +4 v. Hornets | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#763) Since Jabari Parker got hurt and Kris Middleton got healthy, the Bucks have turned their season around in a big way, going 11-3 SU in their last 14 ballgames. Parker’s defense was problematic; while Middleton’s offensive playmaking is a difference maker. That’s how the Bucks have notched SU wins on the highway at Sacramento, Portland, the Clippers and the Lakers on their last road trip. Even before this last road trip, the Bucks were consistently winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway, including SU victories at Phoenix, Indiana, Brooklyn and Philly, as well as a tight, spread covering defeat at Cleveland since the beginning of February. Add it all up and we’re talking about one of the better under-the-radar NBA trends: 8-2-1 ATS in their eleven road games during that span. But the Bucks are coming off an ugly home loss to the Bulls, torched by Chicago’s 51% shooting in a 15 point defeat. Rookie of the Year candidate Malcolm Brogdon knows what’s at stake here: “We put ourselves in a great spot the last couple weeks. We want to stay in this spot and possibly put ourselves in a better position, so we've got to finish out strong." With a 5-1 SU mark in their last six tries off a loss, the Bucks are ‘live dogs’ here! Charlotte was a playoff team last year, finishing with 48 wins and the #6 seed. The markets still remember and respect that team, in some ways overshadowing the 33-40 squad from this year in the betting world. The Hornets did their best to blow a 25 point second half lead against a Suns team playing on the second night of back-2-backs in their last game, on the heels of a defensive no-show against the Cavs in their previous contest. My power rating number has this game priced right around pick ‘em, offering us legitimate value with wiseguy steam showing for Charlotte in early betting action today. Take the Bucks. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Georgia Tech -2 | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Georgia Tech (#778) To put this pointspread in it’s proper perspective, note the relative strengths of schedule for these two teams this year. If you average every opponent that Cal State Bakersfield played and compared them with every opponent that Georgia Tech played, the Yellow Jackets average opponent was more than 9 points per game better than the average Roadrunners opponent. Georgia Tech played 15 games against opponents who reached the NCAA Tournament. Cal State Bakersfield? They lost to SMU and Arizona in non-conference play, and lost two out of three meetings with WAC auto-bid winner New Mexico State. Georgia Tech is more battle tested, plain and simple. Cal State Bakersfield put on an impressive run to get here, winning SU as underdogs at Cal, Colorado State and UT Arlington, all pretty good teams playing at home. How did the Roadrunners do it? Simple – they got hot shooting the three ball, hitting 50% of their three point attempts; making ten per game. For a team that averaged six made three pointers on 33% three point shooting through their first 31 games, savvy bettors should NOT expect this hot shooting streak to continue indefinitely. And, after jumping out to big halftime leads in all three NIT games to get here, the Roadrunners are not a team I trust to hang tough in a tight, competitive contest throughout. Georgia Tech’s defense is no joke. The only teams in the country to rank higher than Josh Pastner’s squad in defensive efficiency were all elite NCAA Tourney teams: Gonzaga, Virginia, West Virginia, Florida and South Carolina. That’s bad news for a Bakersfield team that still only ranks #244 in the country in offensive efficiency even after their three hot shooting wins to get here. Take Georgia Tech. |
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03-27-17 | Grizzlies -6 v. Kings | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#741) Sacramento did something pretty unusual on Sunday, to put it mildly. Trailing by 18 points at home against the Clippers with just five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, the Kings put together a 22-3 run to close out the game, stealing a one point victory. To put that comeback in perspective, NBA teams up by 18+ with 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter were 6746-1 SU over the last 20 years, prior to yesterday’s game. Now the Kings have to do it again. This team is 3-12 SU in their last 15 ballgames since dealing away the face of the franchise, DeMarcus Cousins. Guard Darren Collison: “People don't understand how hard it is to be in our shoes and come to work every day with the circumstances we have dealt with.” And it’s surely worth noting that Sacramento hasn’t covered a pointspread on the second night of back-2-backs since before the Cousins deal, 0-4 ATS in their last four tries. This is a bottom feeder team coming off a miracle win playing on the second of back-2-backs, an easy fade in this situation. Memphis has lost all three games on their current road trip – it’s ‘circle the wagons’ time for David Fizdale’s squad. Of course, there’s no shame in losing at San Antonio or at Golden State; both competitive games in their last two contests. And those losses should have the desired effect here – big time intensity against a team that can’t handle it. Each of the Grizzlies last 13 wins – dating back to January -- has come by seven points or more. When this team wins, they win by margin, and this is a game they should win with relative ease. Take the Grizzlies. |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina OVER 159 | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 25 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina – Kentucky OVER (#723-724) Here’s the quote from Wildcats head coach John Calipari, prior to the UCLA game: “We’ve got really fast players, and so you try to play to your strengths. But a lot of people have slowed us down. They’ve not let us play fast. Early in the year, we were playing way faster than we are now. Some of that is because of how people are playing us. I’m not sure UCLA will try to slow you down. Let’s go. Let’s play to 120. I don’t think either one of us are going to change how we play. It’s too late in the season.” The game against the Bruins was the single highest totaled game of the entire NCAA Tournament, and despite reaching 161 points, it stayed Under the closing total. Now, in another rematch from a VERY high scoring game earlier in the season is totaled low enough to expect Calipari’s ‘look for a very fast pace’ quote to cash an Over bet for us on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams really was a track meet; a 103-100 Kentucky victory in regulation! Neither team generated turnovers with their defensive pressure; both squads had open looks throughout and they knocked them down. Still, the game wasn’t a foul fest ( a combined 34 made free throws) and it still flew Over the total by 32 points; a game that closed with a total of 171. This total is a dozen points lower, with a different level of pressure compared to that early December matchup. Frankly, the 12 point differential between the total in the first meeting and this one is waaaay to much of an adjustment to make. North Carolina point guard Joel Berry looked back at 100% after an injury last weekend, hanging 26 of the Tar Heels 92 points on Butler Friday Night; by far the most points Butler had allowed all year – including overtime games! Roy Williams squad has been trending Over of late, cashing three Overs in their last four postseason games; all totaled in the 150’s. The Tar Heels are the best team in the country on the offensive glass, leading to easy putbacks without burning much clock. And defensive rebounding is not a major area of strength for Calipari’s squad. Expect a frenetic pace, excellent offensive efficiency and enough easy looks to send this game Over the total with room to spare. Take the Over. |
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03-26-17 | Thunder +7 v. Rockets | 125-137 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma City (#707) This is not a ‘lay the points’ series, to put it mildly. The three previous meetings this year have been decided by 2, 3 and 2 points. All four meetings last year were decided by eight points or less. Either team favored by -2 or higher in this series hasn’t cashed a winning bet since the 2013-14 campaign. Then we have the MVP award situation, with James Harden and Russell Westbrook as the top two candidates. It’s not hard to picture these two superstars trading buckets back and forth in the fourth quarter; a classic late season duel in which laying points with the favorite is NOT the way to go. Oklahoma City is as fresh as they’ve been since the All Star Break. They’ve been off since Wednesday, playing only their seventh game in 15 days. The Rockets had to rally from behind to knock off New Orleans on Friday night, and they lost key contributor Ryan Anderson to an ankle injury in the process, out for the indefinite future. The loss of Anderson is a HUGE deal in this ballgame, because the Thunder are the best rebounding team in the NBA when it comes to snaring the highest percentage of available missed shots. With Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Domantas Sabonis all manning the low post, along with the best rebounding guard in the NBA (Westbrook), this is one game where the absence of Anderson really matters! Houston has been struggling in this pointspread range since the All Star Break. The Rockets failed to cover -8 against the Nuggets, -7 against the Cavs, -8.5 against the Jazz and -9.5 against the Pacers on this floor in recent weeks. They’re 0-4 ATS following their last four victories, coming off that win over the Pelicans. Facing an OKC team that has been consistently undervalued in recent weeks (6-1 SU & ATS L7 games), I have no hesitation taking the points with the Thunder this afternoon. Take the Thunder |
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03-25-17 | Raptors +2 v. Mavs | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#507) The Mavericks have alternated wins and losses over their past six games, with all three defeats during that span coming in blowout fashion, including a 22 point loss against these same Raptors in Toronto. Even after the hard fought two point win over the Clippers on Thursday, the Mavs are still 3.5 games behind Denver and two games behind Portland for the #8 seed in the West; facing an uphill battle to reach the postseason. Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle knows that even an #8 seed isn’t going to accomplish anything other than getting his team the opportunity to get swept by the Warriors in the first round. That’s why he’s adjusted his rotations in recent games, looking to get his youngsters some playing time. Seth Curry is being given an opportunity to succeed at the point guard position instead of Yogi Ferrell, who has been in that role for the last few months. Nerlens Noel moved into the starting lineup on Thursday as well. Carlisle’s quote doesn’t sound like the quote from a coach who’s team is favored against a playoff bound foe tonight: "We're going to give this (new lineup) a look. I don't know how many games it's going to be. It may be the rest of the year, it may not. It may be a couple -- we'll see. There's a certain aptitude and understanding of the game that goes with being a point guard. He's (Curry) demonstrated those abilities on a lot of occasions, but until we put the ball in his hands and really take a look at it, we're not going to know for sure. Now is the time to do it." Toronto rallied from 15 points down to beat the Heat on Thursday; their fourth straight victory. Head coach Dwane Casey liked his team’s mentality in that come-from-behind win: “It talks about toughness, heart. Our give-a-crap level is pretty high, and it's one of those things where when you count us out, we find a way. My thing is just find five men who are going to play hard.” Wrong team favored here! Take the Raptors. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 146 | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Xavier – Gonzaga UNDER (#513-514) Gonzaga’s offense hasn’t worked in the Big Dance. Point guard Nigel Williams-Goss – the WCC Player of the Year during the regular season -- is mired in a nasty slump. He’s shot a woeful 12-42 in the tournament so far, with nearly as many turnovers (nine) as assists (ten). When your point guard is struggling at this time of the season, it’s a real bugaboo to overcome. No surprise, then, that the Zags have been held in the 60’s twice in three tournament games, staying Under the total with plenty of room to spare both times. In fact, Gonzaga has been trending Under all month, 6-2 to the Under in their last eight games overall. It’s surely worth noting that both Over cashes came in games totaled below 140. Xavier can be expected to play zone defense for extended stretches this evening, forcing the Zags to hit perimeter jumpers from the soft spots in the zone. But with a struggling point guard, facing much tougher defensive competition than they saw in the WCC this year, the Zags shots just aren’t falling right now; averaging less than five made three pointers per game over their last five contests. But the Zags have been able to win their first three games of this tournament to survive to the Elite Eight because their defense is truly elite, ranked #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and #1 in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Musketeers have shot ‘lights out’ in this tourney; hitting 50% or better in all three games, despite the season ending injury to their own point guard, Edmond Summer, in the heart of Big East Conference play. I do NOT expect Xavier to approach or exceed 50% shooting again on Saturday facing this defense. Xavier has cashed only one Over ticket in seven games since March 1st. These two teams have met twice this decade, with the two games finishing with 137 and 118 points, despite late scramble points in both contests, cashing Under tickets each time. This ain’t no shootout…… Take the Under. |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida -2 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Florida (#872) Wisconsin can’t play any better than they did last weekend in Buffalo. They averaged a ridiculous 1.31 points per possession while knocking off Virginia Tech, then followed that up with a 53% shooting effort to beat the defending champs, Villanova. Given the success of the Badgers in recent tournaments (their four seniors – Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes, Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown – are a combined 13-3 in NCAA Tournament games), it’s easy to understand why the markets are affording this team so much respect. But the Badgers do not match up well against Florida, and they’ll be hard pressed to come close to matching last weekend’s stellar efforts. Wisconsin doesn’t hit free throws (64% for the season, just 26-41 in the first two games of the Big Dance). They’ve been outrebounded consistently down the stretch, losing the battle of the boards in five of their last nine games. And the Badgers lack the athletic playmakers that Florida has an ample supply of; the type of playmakers that have given Wisconsin trouble in the majority of their eight previous losses this season. Florida hits their free throws at a 71% clip for the season. They’re a dominant rebounding team as well, winning the battle of the boards in each of their last five contests. Every Gators loss this season came against a quality foe – three times to Vanderbilt, then Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida State, Duke and Gonzaga, arguably all better teams than the one they’ll face on Friday. It’s surely worth noting that Florida didn’t lose contact in any of those defeats, each and every one of them coming by ten points or less. Wisconsin lives and dies by the three point shot and Ethan Happ’s ability to create good looks in the low post. But the Gators are elite defenders on the perimeter, ranked among the Top 10 teams in the country, allowing only 30% shooting from beyond the arc for the season. And Happ won’t have an easy time of it against shot blocker extraordinaire Kevarrius Hayes. In fact, Florida ranks among the nation’s leaders on defense in shooting percentage allowed, blocked shots and turnovers forced; arguably the best defensive team still standing in the tourney. Gators junior wing Devin Robinson is skyrocketing up NBA draft boards. Shooting guard KeVuaghn Allen is primed for a much better weekend this week after a woeful 3-21 shooting effort last weekend. Senior point guard Kasey Hill can hang tough with Koenig. The Gators have more depth than the Badgers – no Florida starter averages more than 28 minutes per game, with a rotation that still goes nine deep even after the injury loss of big man John Egbunu. This is a VERY cheap price to lay with the superior team, making this game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take Florida. |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Baylor | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 55 h 12 m | Show | |
Take South Carolina (#873) My clients and I cashed a (lucky) winning bet against Baylor over the weekend. This time around, the anti-Baylor fade shouldn’t need a last second putback to cover the number! Let me start with my anti-Baylor analysis from the USC game. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities. “Baylor is a classic case of a team that peaked in January. Remember, this team was #1 in the country for a few days after starting 15-0. Obviously, they are not the #1 team in the country, or anything close. And from a value standpoint, the Bears have been a nightmare for their supporters since that hot start, below 40% ATS since the calendar turned to 2017.” Baylor is coming off a weekend of near peak offensive performance. They shot 54% from the floor, hit 30 of 34 attempts from the free throw line and finished +28 on the glass. Yet despite those dominant stats, the Bears could have easily gone 0-2 ATS were it not for a late 11-4 run in the final 2 ½ minutes against New Mexico State. I expect the Bears to be hard pressed to match those offensive accomplishments here; bad news for a program with a consistent track record of postseason failure under head coach Scott Drew. You could make a legitimate argument that South Carolina was the single best team in the NCAA Tournament last weekend. The Gamecocks have played elite level defense all year under Frank Martin, but other than Sindarius Thornwell, their offense spent the season stuck in the mud. But there was nothing fraudulent about their impressive victories over Marquette and Duke last weekend, getting four players into the double digit scoring column in the opener, then five players to double digits in the upset over Duke. This Gamecocks team is an undervalued commodity right now following a late season slump in SEC play, but they’re every bit as good as the favorite in this game. Take South Carolina. |
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03-24-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Magic | 87-115 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#857) This bet comes down to a single question: Have the Pistons thrown in the towel? Based on everything I’ve read, the answer is ‘No’. Yes, Stan Van Gundy’s squad has suffered through a really rough stretch of games over the past couple of weeks. Two weeks ago, after rallying from 15 points down to beat the defending champion Cavaliers and knocking off the Knicks in their next game, Detroit was in position to sneak into the playoffs. But they’ve lost five of six since that time, including a 32 point loss in the rematch against Cleveland and a particularly ugly 22 point loss at Chicago on Wednesday. Van Gundy: “I think it’s pretty clear from these six games, I’m not finding the answers and not doing a very good job. It starts with me. I’m the person in charge. I selected everybody in that locker room. I’m the one that wanted them in there. I decide who plays. I put lineups out there. I decide on defensive coverages. I call plays. It’s all on me. I’m not running from that. Right now, we’ve gotta find a way to get it back……It’s like we took that one hit (against the Cavs) and have not recovered at all. We haven’t played a good game since then. This is six bad games in a row. It’s mind-boggling to me that six games ago we were playing OK and at .500, and now not even competitive.” The Pistons still have plenty to play for, sitting only one game out of the #8 seed in the East with ten games remaining. Van Gundy moved Ish Smith back into the starting point guard role last time out; not a bad decision in this bettor’s opinion. And Detroit is facing a team tonight that they have dominated, winning every matchup with the Magic in Orlando both SU and ATS over the past two years, part of a 7-1 SU & ATS run against them. The Magic blew yet another game in the fourth quarter, losing to Charlotte on Wednesday. The loss was very typical of their season; a squad that just can’t get a key stop or a key bucket on anything resembling a consistent basis during crunch time of tight games. That’s a big part of the reason why the Magic have the single weakest homecourt edge in the NBA, with just 10 pointspread covers in 36 previous home games. Head coach Frank Vogel said his team was ‘hurting’ following that fourth quarter collapse against the Pelicans, not a likely candidate to bounce back strong against a Pistons squad primed to play with focus tonight. Take the Pistons. |
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