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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-26-17 | Cardinals +4 v. Falcons | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#263) The defending NFC Champs are laying more than a field goal to Arizona in the Week 3 ‘Regular Season Walkthrough’ matchup tonight. But there’s a world of difference in how these two teams are approaching tonight’s game. Bruce Arians gameplanned for this contest after the Cardinals didn’t do that for their first two preseason games. He’ll be calling plays for the first time this preseason after the Cardinals ran completely ‘vanilla’ schemes in their first two preseason contests. QB Carson Palmer has emphasized the importance of tonight’s game with his teammates, expected to play the entire first half. Arizona’s QB depth behind him is rock solid, with Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton, both of whom have regular season starting experience. The coach-speak and player quotes coming out of Atlanta are very different. The concept? ‘We’ve got a lot of player depth to evaluate’. Atlanta is not going to play their starters as a cohesive unit for multiple series. Head coach Dan Quinn: “Our approach will be more on an individual basis – who we really want to try to feature. Sometimes you see that postgame when you see, boy that guy had a lot of plays in the game, that may have been a player we were really trying to find out about. … There’s a number of guys that we’re really trying to dig in on and find out what they can do. That’s as important to me as what they can’t do, because you have to find out both and what can they do and how can we feature them.” We could get an extended look at Falcons non-prospect Alek Torgersen at QB after halftime. And Quinn has a track record of sitting starters early in Week 3, not stretching them out into the second half. Don’t be shocked here if the Cardinals starters are on the field against the Falcons backups before halftime. And even if the Falcons go into the break with the lead, Arizona’s second half QB rotation is ‘bet-on’ all the way. Live dog here! Take the Cardinals. |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Seahawks | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Kansas City (#257) Pete Carroll is legitimately a ‘bet-on’ coach in August, carrying a 31-14-1 ATS mark in preseason games. That includes a 2-0 mark already this year, beating the Chargers and Vikings by a combined margin of 68-30. So why the heck am I betting against Carroll on Friday Night? Lots of reasons! First, note that when any coach compiles a gaudy preseason track record, the betting markets are forced to adjust. Oddsmakers know full well that $$ would pour in on Seattle at -2.5 or -3, hence the 3.5 for this contest. Quite frankly, my number here is Seattle -1, a clear indicator of the types of adjustments books are forced to make because of the expected Seahawks $$. This line is a good notch or two too high. Secondly, Week 3 is different, the regular season walk-through. Andy Reid has taken this one week very seriously, dating back to his long tenure in Philly, where the Eagles covered Week 3 spreads year after year. The Chiefs won their Week 3 walkthrough 23-7 last year and they beat the Seahawks SU in Week 3 the previous season. Third, Andy Reid has announced that the KC starters will play for three full quarters on Friday Night and the second stringers will close out the game. That means none of the third or fourth string ‘scrubs’ that blew the Week 1 game against San Fran. Don’t be shocked to see KC starters facing off against Seattle backups at some point in this contest, or to see the Chiefs second stringers facing off against Seahawks who won’t make the roster. And fourth, KC is as healthy as they’ve been all August – this is a legit regular season walkthrough. The Chiefs first string offense has been clicking, notching three TD’s and a field goal in their first four drives of preseason. Seattle, on the other hand, just lost starting left tackle George Fant to a season ending injury; not a team that can afford any more hits to their offensive line. Live dog here! Take the Chiefs. |
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08-25-17 | Rockies +108 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#959) The Braves came out of the All Star Break by sweeping Arizona at home. Since that series sweep six weeks ago, Atlanta’s homefield edge has been non-existent. The Braves are just 2-4 on their current homestand, losing series to the sub .500 Reds and the sub .500 Mariners. And they are just 5-12 in their last 17 at brand new Sun Trust Park. Julio Teheran is the poster child for poor results at home. The numbers don’t lie. Teheran beat the Padres in his first home start of the season. Since that time, Teheran is 0-9 with an ERA above 7.00 when pitching in Atlanta; simply unable to put it together on this field. It’s not like the Braves are winning for him anywhere. Atlanta is just 1-6 in Teheran’s last seven trips to the hill. The bullpen behind him ranks #13 out of 15 NL teams in ERA this season, always capable of a late inning meltdown. The Rockies have weathered some tough times in recent weeks, just 5-11 in their last 16 games. But the Rockies got a much needed win in KC last night and I like this team’s mental makeup – there’s money to be made on Colorado in the days and weeks to come, not a team that attracts consistent wiseguy support in the betting markets. Starter Chad Bettis threw seven innings of shutout ball against the Braves two weeks ago; primed for similar success tonight. Wrong team favored here. Take the Rockies. |
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08-23-17 | Twins -1.5 v. White Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota on the RUN LINE (#971) My clients and I have cashed a small handful of Twins bets during their current hot streak, and there’s absolutely no reason to jump off the Minnesota profit train tonight, with a Run Line wager being the preferred method of attack this evening. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting Paul Molitor’s squad. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “The Twins are rolling again and swinging very hot bats. Paul Molitor’s squad has pounded out 47 runs while going 6-1 in their last seven contests; 13-4 in their last 17. Veteran leader Joe Mauer after a win over Arizona this past weekend: “To have a good night against a pitcher of Greinke's caliber is definitely a confidence builder… the guys are playing really well right now." “The White Sox are what they are, a tanking team in the midst of a complete rebuild struggling through the dog days of August. With just three wins in their last eleven games and a 10-27 mark since the All Star Break, we’re not talking about a squad that’s brining their ‘A’ game every night, especially after a grueling scheduling stretch, playing their tenth game in the last nine days.” The Twins have won each of Ervin Santana’s last four starts, with Santana allowing only nine earned runs in the process. His lone previous start here on the South Side this season was a gem, throwing six innings of two hit, shutout ball; part of the Twins 7-3 run in their last ten against Chicago. The Twins bullpen behind him is rested and ready to maintain a late lead off Kyle Gibson’s gem last night. And it’s surely worth noting that each of Minnesota’s last eleven victories has come by a multi-run margin, not a team that consistently burns Run Line bettors. James Shields is a disaster area, notching only two victories in 14 previous starts this season. The White Sox are just 3-8 in his last 11 trips to the hill and current Twins have an .858 OPS against him; not a hurler who is missing many bats at this stage of his career. Behind Shields, the ChiSox bullpen is a shell of what it was before the trading deadline, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans, should we need them. Take the Twins on the Run Line. |
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08-22-17 | Twins -117 v. White Sox | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#923) There’s no comparison between the Twins and the White Sox right now, making this relatively cheap price to support Minnesota tonight a legitimate bargain. The Twins are rolling again and swinging very hot bats. Paul Molitor’s squad has pounded out 47 runs while going 5-1 in their last six contests; 12-4 in their last 16. Veteran leader Joe Mauer after a win over Arizona this past weekend: “To have a good night against a pitcher of Greinke's caliber is definitely a confidence builder… the guys are playing really well right now." The White Sox are what they are, a tanking team in the midst of a complete rebuild struggling through the dog days of August. With just three wins in their last ten games and a 10-26 mark since the All Star Break, we’re not talking about a squad that’s brining their ‘A’ game every night, especially off a grueling doubleheader yesterday. The betting markets don’t like Kyle Gibson much; understandably so. Gibson has been unable to get out of the fifth inning in his last two starts; a long, long way from ‘ace’ level hurling. But Gibson has owned Chicago, holding current White Sox to a .197 batting average and a .554 OPS against him. And with a 1.21 ERA to go along with his 4-0 mark in four games at US Cellular Field, this is one lineup that we can expect Gibson to shut down. Prized prospect Lucas Giolito will make his ChiSox debut tonight, a guy who’s been hyped beyond belief throughout his minor league career. But there’s one problem with this prized prospect—the results haven’t equated with the talent level , even in the minors. He didn’t win a game in four starts with the Nationals last year before Washington gave up on him. And he went 6-10 with a 4.48 ERA in AAA this year, not exactly dominating. Short chalk worth laying here! Take the Twins. |
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08-21-17 | Brewers -117 v. Giants | 0-2 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#955) There’s no comparison between the Brewers and Giants these days. Milwaukee has been an overachiever all season, ranked #3 in MLB in profitability this year. They’re hot right now, winners of six of their last seven overall after taking two out of three in Colorado over the weekend. First baseman Jesus Aguilar, following yesterday’s win: “Starting the road trip with a series win is a boost of energy for the club, and it gives us a lot of confidence.” San Francisco, on the other hand, ranks dead last in MLB profitability this season by a wide margin. They’re coming off back-2-back losses as home favorites against the bottom feeder Phillies, losers of five of their last eight overall. When it comes to overall positive momentum right now, the Brewers have it and the Giants don’t, plain and simple. The betting markets have been fading Zack Davies all year, in large part because he is not a classic power pitcher, striking out fewer than six batters per nine innings on average. But Davies continues to succeed despite his lack of a strikeout pitch. He’s allowed one run or less four times in his last six starts while eating up innings, lasting into the seventh inning five times during that span and finishing the seventh four times! It’s surely worth noting his remarkable road record: 7-0 with a 2.52 ERA this year pitching away from Miller Park. While the markets are not enamored with Davies, there’s a fair bit of love for the Giants Chris Stratton, a first round pick back in 2012. Stratton is coming off his best big league start, dominating Washington last time out. However, he’s yet to put together two strong starts in a row at the big league level – that was his first career ‘quality’ start. And Stratton isn’t in any kind of rhythm – this will be only his third appearance here in August. I’m not expecting another gem tonight! Take the Brewers. |
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08-20-17 | Saints v. Chargers -3 | 13-7 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 4 m | Show | |
Take the Los Angeles Chargers (#430) To say that the Saints don’t care about winning in August is something of an understatement. Sean Payton’s last preseason win in New Orleans came in Week 3 of the 2014 season, 0-10 SU and ATS in August since that victory. Each of the last seven losses has come by six points or more – it’s not like New Orleans has been falling just short. The Saints didn’t do any gameplanning for San Diego, even for their joint practice sessions this week. Drew Brees: “We just kind of show up today for the first time and it’s like, OK, here’s their personnel and here’s the looks that we are getting. This is the stuff they have been working on in training camp that nobody has really seen yet.” And reports out of those practice sessions had New Orleans struggling in every aspect of the game. They had penalties, turnovers, pass protection issues and poor QB play throughout. Drew Brees was outplayed by Philip Rivers, which is no surprise – Rivers and the Chargers first string offense marched the ball down the field and into the end zone in their lone drive against the Seahawks first string defense last week. While the Saints don’t care, the Chargers do! Last week’s 31 point home loss was a downright embarrassment for a team with a first year, first time head coach, relocating to a new stadium in a new city without much of a fan base. Backup QB’s Kellen Clemons and Cardale Jones are both having solid camps, but that duo combined to go 6-19 with two interceptions against the Seahawks reserves last week. The Saints defensive backups are a long, long way from the Seahawks defensive backups. Let’s bet ON the team that actually wants to win! Take the Chargers. |
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08-20-17 | Diamondbacks v. Twins -104 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#928) The D-backs are burning their supporters money these days, and it’s not a short term fluctuation. Arizona went into the All Star Break on a 3-8 slide. They’ve come out of the All Star Break and gone 14-20 in a 34 game span. Their bats have gone cold, producing more than six runs in a game only once all month while being held to three runs or less nine times during that span and scoring only 12 runs on the first four games of this road trip. Arizona’s pitching is faltering as well. Only one of their last five starters has recorded more than one out in the sixth inning, which means the bullpen is wearing down as well. Zack Greinke’s quote following yesterday’s loss doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence: "We haven't been playing that good for more than several weeks…..I feel like it's been a month and a half at least. It's been a while where we've played .500 ball….it would be nice to start doing better." While the D-backs are in an extended slump, the Twins are heating up right now, winners of three straight and ten of their last 13. They beat Zack Greinke last night, a real confidence boost. Veteran leader Joe Mauer: “To have a good night against a pitcher of Greinke's caliber is definitely a confidence builder… the guys are playing really well right now." From a starting pitching standpoint, the D-backs don’t hold an edge here either! Minnesota’s Bartolo Colon is no ace, but he’s thrown well of late – a complete game, followed by seven innings of shutout ball against the Brewers. Last time out, Colon allowed three solo shots and nothing else. His quote: "Obviously those three home runs were fastball. But other than that, my off speed they couldn't hit it tonight." Facing reliever TJ McFarland in a ‘bullpen’ game for Arizona (McFarland hasn’t thrown more than 58 pitches or 3.1 innings in a game this year), this is one of the rare games where Bartolo Colon may actually be the better of the two starting pitchers. Take the Twins. |
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08-19-17 | Marlins +105 v. Mets | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#953) Forget the starting pitching matchup for just one moment. Miami is playing some of their best baseball of the season right now, winning six of their last seven overall, the lone loss coming via a bullpen meltdown against the Giants on Tuesday. Their lineup is clicking, led by Giancarlo Stanton and his home run barrage here in the second half of the season. Miami’s bullpen is in good shape after getting Thursday off. Miami is only two games under .500 right now, the best record the Marlins have enjoyed since the first week of May, feeling the energy and excitement of inching their way back into the Wild Card race. Manager Don Mattingly: “Just try to keep the emphasis on trying to win series. Keep marching down the road. Obviously, we've got to get back to .500 before anything can happen. (Would) be good to be able to get there." Meanwhile, the Mets have lost five in a row, just 6-16 in their last 22 ballgames, a tanking team down the stretch. Following last night’s loss, the Mets sent Curtis Granderson to the Dodgers for ‘a player to be named later’, a true ‘salary dump. Granderson is the fifth veteran to be traded away from the Mets over the past three weeks. Mets Manager Terry Collins: “This is hard for these guys. We came in and we started spring training with tremendous expectations, and they all had them themselves, too. To all of a sudden look around and have new people everywhere, I think it's a little bit of a culture shock for some of our guys." Read between the lines here and it’s clear – even the Mets manager thinks they are a ‘bet-against’ team right now. So now, let’s get back to the starting pitching matchup. For the Mets to be chalk here, they’ve got to have a huge edge, right? Wrong! Mets starter Rafael Montero is only in the big leagues because of the devastating injuries that this pitching staff has suffered all season. Montero hasn’t won a game since June; the Mets are 1-6 in his last seven trips to the hill and he’s got a 5.85 ERA since the All Star Break, not exactly ‘bet-on’ material. Miami’s Vance Worley has led the team to a 4-0 mark in his four starts since being promoted from the bullpen. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, and his advanced metric numbers are mediocre at best – hence the lack of wiseguy support for Miami, leaving us with a classic ‘Wrong Team Favored’ scenario here! Take the Marlins. |
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08-19-17 | Panthers +3.5 v. Titans | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#409) The Titans have no business as favorites of more than a field goal in this ballgame, even without Cam Newton in the lineup for Carolina today. They’re not gameplanning in any real way against the Panthers. Head coach Mike Mularkey, when asked about gameplanning this week after doing none against the Jets: “A little bit more because it's a different front. You've got to have a plan for their defensive scheme. Not like we're going to game-plan like when we get going, no.” The Titans are not built to put up points in bunches once their starters leave the game. Their offensive line depth is clearly limited, as backup QB’s Alex Tanney and Tyler Ferguson combined to take seven sacks against the Jets last week. Matt Cassell is expected to get some playing time today, but I’m not expecting an A level effort from Cassell in his first game appearance since offseason thumb surgery on his throwing hand. Ron Rivera was not amused after the joint practice session with the Titans on Thursday. An offense that had been wowing observers in training camp flat out stunk. Rivera, upping the intensity for his squad: “Today there were some things that were terrible that we looked at and are most certainly going to work on and get corrected,” he said bluntly. “Because we can’t have this. We expect to win football games. We can’t do the things we did today.” And, as we saw very clearly last week in their win over the Texans, Carolina has a ‘bet-on’ QB rotation for August, even without Newton. Once starter Derek Anderson sits, the Joe Webb/Garrett Gilbert combo has proven very effective in August. The Panthers beat the Titans by double digits in their Week 2 preseason matchup last year and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they win this game in SU fashion by a comfortable margin either. Let’s not forget that Carolina hasn’t lost a preseason game by more than a field goal in a non-Week 3 game (regular season walkthroughs) since 2013! Take the Panthers. |
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08-18-17 | Cardinals -120 v. Pirates | 11-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#901) Last week at this time, the Pittsburgh Pirates were making a move in the NL Central race and the Wild Card standings. They had won seven of nine, were back at .500, and were feeling pretty good about their chances of putting together a strong stretch run. That was then. This is now. After facing sub .500 foes in six straight series, the schedule toughened a bit for Clint Hurdle’s squad. They have not responded well, losing five straight games, ice cold heading into Friday Night. First the lineup couldn’t buy a run, held to four runs in the first three games of the skid combined. Then the bullpen fell apart, blowing leads in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings on Wednesday against the Brewers, then wasting a 5-1 lead last night, as four different relievers allowed a combined eight runs! Blown leads and bullpen meltdowns are the last thing a team like Pittsburgh -- with their fragile psyche -- needs right now. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have won nine of their last twelve, surging up in the standings – they trail the Cubs by only 1.5 games entering Friday’s action. The Cards lineup is red hot, off another 11 run outburst last night while averaging 7.5 runs per game during that 12 game span. And starter Carlos Martinez has been rock solid of late, allowing three runs or less five times in six starts since the All Star Break, including throwing seven innings of five hit, two run ball against the same Pirates lineup he’ll face tonight. Cheap price to lay with the better, hotter team! Take the Cardinals. |
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08-17-17 | Bucs v. Jaguars | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#405) Three key factors are in play for this game. First and foremost, the Bucs want to get extended playing time from their starters in this ballgame. I’ve heard no similar sentiments expressed from the Jacksonville side. Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter: “We’ll play more, the ones will be closer to a full half. We went a little bit longer with the offense last game, the defense didn’t play much. We’ll take those guys (deeper into the game). I’d like Jameis (Winston), if we have the ball, to get into a two minute situation at the end of the second quarter.” Secondly, the Jags are not comfortable running their new offense just yet. Blake Bortles has struggled in training camp and was a non-factor last week, completing only three passes for 16 yards. Bortles: “It still is our first camp in the system with Coach Nate Hackett and I think guys have done a good job – definitely still a lot to improve on. We’ve shown day-in and day-out how good we can be and then we’ve shown day-in and day-out how stupid some of the stuff we do is.” Jacksonville scored TD’s on a 97-yard pass a 79-yard run and 42-yard pass against the Pats; the type of big play TD’s that don’t come every week. Third, the Bucs are likely to have a significant QB edge after halftime, when pointspread results are most likely to be determined. Third string QB Ryan Griffin is hurt. ‘Never has been & never will be’ undrafted rookie free agent QB Sefo Liufau got second half playing time last week. That means we can expect a heavy dose of Ryan Fitzpatrick against the Bucs backup defenders. Fitzpatrick struggled against the Pats last week, primed for a better effort here; the type of veteran QB we want our money ON in August. Meanwhile, I’m not sold on Jags rookie sixth round pick Brandon Allen lighting up the Tampa defense. Take the Bucs |
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08-17-17 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 9.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Arizona OVER (#967-968) My clients and I cashed a winner with the Astros –Dbacks Over last night, and there’s ample reason to expect another relatively high scoring affair in afternoon action on Thursday. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up. Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect the outcome of last night’s games: “The Astros are the highest scoring, best hitting team in baseball by a fairly wide margin. But for the better part of the last week, those bats have been ice cold. That came to an end on Tuesday, when the Astros pounded out nine runs while every starter in the lineup had at least one hit. On Wednesday, every starting Astro had at least one hit again, and the team pounded out another nine runs!” “Astros manager AJ Hinch: “We've led the league in offense in a lot of different categories, so I think today we looked a little bit more like ourselves." Infielder Alex Bregman: "We know we're a good offense, we just wanted to put together back-to-back-to-back (hits) and we did that. That's one of the things we've done a lot this year. When we put together quality ABs like that we're a tough offense to stop." There’s little reason to expect Houston’s bats to fall silent today against Patrick Corbin and the worn down Arizona bullpen behind him (four runs allowed in three bullpen innings last night). Corbin has a remarkable home/road dichotomy, with a 7-3 record and a 2.87 ERA at Chase Field compared to a 2-8/ 6.79 ERA on the highway. His two previous August road starts were both disasters, allowing 14 runs in just nine innings of work. Current Astros have hit .533 against him in their careers. The D-backs aren’t sitting pretty in the NL Wild Card race because of their elite pitching – it’s been Arizona’s lineup keying their success. That’s bad news for Mike Fiers and his 8.82 ERA in three previous August starts, allowing at least two home runs in all three of those games. Current D-backs have hit .304 with a .948 OPS against Fiers, and the Astros bullpen behind him, like Arizona’s gave up four runs in less than three innings last night. Even home plate ump Paul Nauert has an Over bias, setting the stage for what should be another Slugfest this afternoon. Take the Over. |
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08-16-17 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 9 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Arizona OVER (#927-928) The Astros are the highest scoring, best hitting team in baseball by a fairly wide margin. But for the better part of the last week, those bats have been ice cold. That came to an end last night, when the Astros pounded out nine runs while every starter in the lineup had at least one hit. Astros manager AJ Hinch, following the game: “We've led the league in offense in a lot of different categories, so I think today we looked a little bit more like ourselves." Infielder Alex Bregman, who’s triple blew the game open early: "We know we're a good offense, we just wanted to put together back-to-back-to-back (hits) and we did that. That's one of the things we've done a lot this year. When we put together quality ABs like that we're a tough offense to stop." The D-backs aren’t sitting pretty in the NL Wild Card race because of their elite pitching – it’s been Arizona’s lineup keying their success. And while that lineup has cooled off against some elite pitchers over the past week, its still most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ batting order against the likes of Charlie Morton and the worn down Astros bullpen behind him. Morton has morphed into a power pitcher this year, with a career high strikeout rate and his lowest ground ball rate since 2010. No surprise, then, that Morton has shown signs of wearing down in the summer heat, with mediocre numbers since the All Star Break. The Astros bullpen behind him hasn’t had a day off since last Monday, and the starters have only finished the sixth inning twice during that span. Dbacks starter Taijuan Walker has seen the Astros plenty, dating from his tenure with the Seattle Mariners. Walker allowed eight runs in just six innings of work over two starts on this field last year on the heels of allowing 11 runs over 9.2 innings of work in two starts on this field in 2015. Current Astros have a .931 OPS against him in 102 career at bats, a decent sample size. And the Dbacks bullpen behind him has been a legitimate problem area of late for Arizona despite a strong bullpen effort last night. Expect fireworks in a game where either lineup is capable of flying Over the total all by themselves. Take the Over. |
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08-15-17 | Giants -105 v. Marlins | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#951) Madison Bumgarner is a ‘bet-on’ hurler right now, even more so since the markets have been fading him for his matchup with the Marlins tonight. The results don’t lie. After some initial mediocrity following an extended stint on the DL, Bumgarner has been pitching at an ace level of late. His last three starts – against three potent lineups (Dodgers, Dbacks and Cubs) – have been truly dominant. Bumgarner threw seven full innings in each one of those games, striking out 21 batters while allowing a grand total of three runs in the process. Miami isn’t a ‘long winning streak’ type of team; just playing out the string of yet another sub .500 campaign. Giancarlo Stanton is on fire, and the Marlins have won four straight, matching their longest winning streak of the campaign. But Miami hasn’t been winning against quality lefties all year – only the Braves and Reds have fewer than the Marlins ten wins all year against opposing southpaws. The Marlins average more than a half run less per nine innings vs. lefties, an offensive weakness worth noting. Marlins starter Dan Straily is no Madison Bumgarner, with no business in a near ‘pick ‘em’ price range against the Giants ace. The Marlins are 0-6 in Straily’s six starts since the All Star Break, with five of those losses coming by more than one run. Straily has a 5.17 ERA during that span, while allowing 50 baserunners in just over 31 innings of work. And, following a string of quality starts from the San Fran starting staff, the Giants have a legitimate bullpen rest edge here as well, with all of their key arms fresh to close out the victory. Take the Giants. |
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08-14-17 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – San Diego UNDER (#907-908) It’s not hard to make a case for betting these two anemic lineups Under the total at Petco tonight. San Diego ranks dead last in MLB in runs scored this year. Philadelphia ranks #29 out of 0 teams, the two lowest scoring lineups in baseball. From an OPS standpoint, both squads rank among the bottom five lineups. And it’s not like things have changed in any dramatic way in recent weeks. The Phillies have been held to three runs or less in eight of their last twelve ballgames. They’ve cashed only four Over bets in their last 15 ballgames. The Padres have produced 3, 4, 1, 3 and 2 runs in their last five at Petco, the lowest scoring park in MLB since it’s inception. Padres starter Travis Wood hasn’t wowed anybody since coming over from KC at the trading deadline, but his lone start at Petco was rock solid: six innings of two hit ball against the Pirates. Wood’s fly ball ways work at this spacious ballpark. Phillies starter Jared Eichoff threw five innings of scoreless ball against the Padres last month and he’s in solid current form, allowing only eight earned runs in his last four starts combined. Behind the starters, both squad saved their key bullpen arms yesterday – don’t expect any late inning shenanigans here, in a game that has all the makings of a low scoring affair. Take the Under. |
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08-13-17 | Orioles -108 v. A's | 3-9 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#975) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting the Orioles last night, and I have no hesitation jumping right back on the Baltimore profit train in a pick ‘em price range again on Sunday. Very quietly, waaaay under the radar, the Orioles have gone 10-5 in their last 15 games, now only 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot in the postseason. Their bats have come to life again, pounding out 23 runs in the first three games of this series. They notched 20 hits yesterday and burned up the A’s bullpen in the process, after Sean Manaea lasted only 1/3 of an inning as the starter. Orioles starter Jeremy Hellickson is not well regarded in the ‘advanced metric’ betting community. His 5.23 xFIP isn’t very good, and his 34.8% ground ball rate is problematic. But those season long stats are largely irrelevant now. Hellickson gave this locker room a legitimate boost when he was acquired before the trading deadline; in sharp contrast to teams like Houston, who did not make any major moves. He’s thrown two quality starts in two tries since joining Baltimore, revitalized in the midst of a pennant race. It’s surely worth noting that current A’s have hit just .182 with a .471 OPS against Hellickson in 33 previous at bats against him. It’s also worth noting that the key arms in Baltimore’s bullpen are rested and ready today off yesterday’s blowout victory. Oakland defense ranks among the worst in baseball, and their bullpen continues to struggle, ranked #26 in MLB in ERA. That’s bad news with Kendall Graveman on the hill. Gravemen has a 12.27 ERA since coming off the DL in his two post-All Star Break starts. Current Orioles have lit him up to the tune of a .333 batting average against and a .925 OPS in a decent sample size of 75 previous at bats. For a pick ‘em priced game, this contest sure has the makings of a one sided affair. Take the Orioles. |
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08-13-17 | Lions v. Colts UNDER 36 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Indianapolis UNDER (#279-280) The Lions and Colts played a memorable 39-35 shootout last year in Week 1 of the regular season, with Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck trading touchdowns throughout. Expect this game to be pretty much the exact opposite of last year’s regular season meeting! We’re not going to see Luck today and Stafford is unlikely to play more than one drive. Detroit is expected to give Jake Rudock first half playing time, while rookie Brad Kaaya should get the majority of snaps behind center after halftime. The Lions have suffered cluster injuries at offensive tackle, leaving their passing game very much in question today. Right now, Detroit has only four healthy tackles. They certainly won’t risk starter Greg Robinson on the field for long today. That leaves backup Cyrus Kouandjio, undrafted rookie Storm Norton and recently signed Nick Becton as the only healthy tackles on the roster. It’s surely worth noting that reports out of joint practice sessions this week had the Lions second string OL “struggle(ing) mightily to contain the Colts’ average pass rushers, both in team and individual drills.” I’m not expecting Detroit’s offense to be marching up and down the field today, nor do I expect their red zone execution to produce touchdowns instead of field goals. And it’s also surely worth noting that Indy’s offseason top priority was all about improving their defensive depth – their second and third string defense should be significantly improved compared to what we’ve seen in recent preseasons. Indy isn’t primed to light up the scoreboard either. Scott Tolzien will get the start today. Here’s the quote from Zak Keefer’s report from the Indy Star: “The Colts’ offense struggled to move the ball against the Lions on Thursday and Friday, and Tolzien’s only attempts deep were easily broken up.“ Behind Tolzien is Stephen Morris and Philip Walker. Morris has been bouncing around training camps for the last four years without much success, Walker is a 5-11 undrafted rookie free agent, looking at his first real playing time against an NFL defense today. Expect big plays and long drives to be few and far between in this one! Take the Under.. |
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08-12-17 | Orioles -106 v. A's | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#925) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting Dylan Bundy in his last start, a 6-2 win in LA against the Angels. Numbers have been slightly adjusted to reflect current realities: “Orioles starter Dylan Bundy was in a nasty funk heading into the All Star Break. His velocity was down, his strikeout rate was down and he had a 5.93 ERA in June before getting lit up by the Twins and Rays in his first two starts in July, just before the break. “Manager Buck Showalter decided to give Bundy some extra rest between starts. In his first start with extra rest, he threw six innings of four hit, one run ball against the Rangers. He went with normal rest next time out and got hammered by the Astros, although Baltimore won the game. Showalter gave Bundy extra rest again before his last start and it was another gem: eight innings of three hit, one run ball against KC. No surprise then, that Bundy is on an extra day of rest again tonight.” Bundy is not on extra rest tonight, but the cumulative effect of getting him those extra days off is primed to pay dividends. The Orioles are 4-0 in his starts since the All Star Break, winning those games by a combined score of 34-12, all multi-run victories. He’s only thrown 26.1 innings of work in the last 5+ weeks; quite capable of throwing seven or eight innings; exactly what he’s done in his last two starts. And this ballpark is a good fit for Bundy’s fly balling ways. The last place A’s snapped a three game home skid last night with a come-from-behind win, but this is not a team primed to go on many winning streaks here in the dog days of August. They are just 2-5 in starter Sean Manaea’s last seven starts, and they needed offensive outbursts for both victories, scoring 18 combined runs in the two wins. Manaea has allowed 19 runs including six dingers in his last four trips to the hill. The A’s defense behind him ranks among the worst in baseball, and their bullpen continues to struggle, ranked #26 in MLB in ERA. Take the Orioles. |
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08-12-17 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#276) To say that Dallas head coach Jason Garrett doesn’t care about winning games in the NFL Preseason is something of an understatement. The Cowboys won one preseason game in four tries last year. They went 0-4 SU and ATS in their four preseason games in 2015. They went 0-4 SU in 2014, covering one spread as a six point underdog. In 2013, the Cowboys won the Hall of Fame Game – just like they did last week, then proceeded to lose SU as favorites in Week 1, winning only once in their four ‘regular’ preseason games. Laying points with Dallas in August, regardless of the opposing team’s circumstances, has been a consistent money losing proposition. So what’s different in 2017? NOTHING! Dak Prescott is likely to get a series or two’s worth of action tonight, but he’ll be playing behind a banged up offensive line that is missing three starters from last year’s elite unit. Kellen Moore played the whole first half last week. That means we’re likely to see plenty of undrafted rookie free agent Cooper Rush out of Central Michigan and recently signed Luke McCown, who is less than two weeks into learning the playbook. I do NOT expect this Cowboys offense to march up and down the field. Rams starter Jared Goff has a lot to prove after a dismal rookie season. LA’s backup QB Sean Mannion is a proven preseason performer, ‘bet-on’ all the way in August. Third stringer Dan Orlovsky is a 12 year veteran with a full offseason to learn the playbook; a capable signal caller for the latter stages. The Rams have a first year, first time head coach in his home debut – a long term ‘positive expectation’ subset. And let’s not forget that the +3 captures all the true ‘key’ numbers from preseason where games are routinely decided by one or two points as teams look to avoid overtime Live dog here! Take the Rams. |
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08-11-17 | Pirates +123 v. Blue Jays | 4-2 | Win | 123 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#979) It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Blue Jays off a win. Winning streaks have been few and far between for Toronto of late. In fact, since the All Star Break, with the exception of one four game winning streak (a series sweep against the last place A’s), the Blue Jays are just 1-7 coming off a victory, unable to string wins together on any sort of consistent basis. It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Marcus Stroman off an exhausting 118 pitch effort against the Astros in his last outing. Stroman has two previous starts off 110+ pitch efforts this year. Neither one was pretty, and Stroman was pulled before the start of the sixth inning each time. Prior to this season, Stroman hadn’t thrown more than 110 pitches in a game since his rookie season in 2014. Even that year, he struggled off those extended outings – two of his worst three outings of the entire season came off 110+ pitch count games. Pittsburgh is playing good ball right now, 6-2 in their last eight ballgames. They’ll get the added benefit of the DH tonight, good news for a team who’s lineup is clicking, pounding out five runs or more five times during their current hot streak. Starter Jameson Tallion bounced back with a 6.2 inning, two run effort last time out after a pair of rough outings, and he’ll be facing a lineup that has never seen him before. And if it comes down to a battle of bullpens, there’s no comparison between these two squads. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been rock solid all year long, Toronto still ranks in the bottom quartile in bullpen ERA and that pen isn’t fresh, having thrown more innings than anyone but the Reds and Marlins here in 2017. Live dog here! Take the Pirates.. |
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08-11-17 | Steelers v. Giants -3.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the New York Giants (#268) The preseason hasn’t started yet, but Mike Tomlin is ready for it to be over already. Tomlin couldn’t care less about winning games in August, with his Steelers squad now 4-13 SU over the past four years in preseason action. They have failed to cover the spread in all 13 of those SU losses, including an 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS mark in Week 1 action. All three of Pittsburgh’s preseason losses last year came by double digit margins, as were three of their four preseason losses in 2015 and two out of three preseason losses in ’14 and ’13. We’re talking consistently non-competitive efforts here, not weird circumstances. . Pitts Their only win came in the Week 3 ‘regular season walkthrough’ game. And from all indications, the Steelers are primed for a no-show again on Saturday against the G-men. It’s starts at the QB position where #1 Ben Roethlisberger and #2 Landry Jones won’t play. 3rd stringer Josh Dobbs is expected to start, followed by ‘never has been, never will be’ fourth stringer Bart Houston. Don’t expect the Steelers offense to be marching up and down the field on Saturday Night. Pittsburgh has significant issues on the defensive side of the football as well. They’re extremely thin at cornerback – one area where no NFL team can afford key injuries. The Steelers have already suffered several losses, with the likes of Artie Burns, Cam Sutton and Senquez Golson all sitting. Cory Sensabaugh was working with the first stringers in practice this week – not a good sign – and the likes of rookie Brian Allen and undrafted free agent Mike Hilton are likely to get extended playing time here. The Giants offense didn’t work well last August, and those struggles carried forward into the regular season. Expect this year to be different, with coach Bob McAdoo emphasizing a physical running game for their preseason opener. “Coming out running the football is important to us and it starts with the first time we hit the field together in a team environment….. I think the offensive line is developing confidence in each other, they are coming off the ball. There have been some shots of the offense knocking a hole in the defense [in practice] and that’s encouraging.” Giants starting center Weston Richburg, talking about the gameplan and the continuity up front for the G-men, with all five starters back on the offensive line. “We want to set the tone so we can open up other things. We have lots of weapons that we want to be able to use, and if we get the running game going, that opens that up to be a little dangerous.” The Giants also have an open competition for the #2 QB job, a good thing for a game where Eli Manning won’t see the field. New York has a pair of veteran mobile backups in Geno Smith and Josh Johnson playing with purpose; a strong bet-on’ scenario for August. And while rookie Davis Webb is likely to get some second half playing time – not an optimal scenario for the favorite – I expect the Giants to be fully in control of this game by the time he sees the field. One of these two teams cares about how they play on Friday Night, the other one doesn’t! Big Ticket: Take the Giants |
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08-10-17 | Broncos v. Bears | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#261) What do we look for in August? Well, we want to be betting ON teams with a QB battle. We want to be betting ON first year, first time coaches who actually seem to care about winning preseason games. We want to be betting AGAINST veteran coaches who legitimately don’t care one iota about winning or losing in August. And we want to be betting AGAINST rookie QB’s who are making their first appearance against an NFL defense. All four of those situations are in play tonight as the Broncos travel to Chicago to take on the Bears. Here are the key quotes from first year, first time Broncos head coach Vance Joseph, talking about the QB competition between Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch: “It’s an open competition. The games matter. The games start Thursday. I want to start the games so I can get to the bottom of this. It’s going to be more than most starting quarterbacks would play the first couple of weeks.” Here’s Joseph talking about giving his offensive starters extended playing time for Week 1: “It’s going to be a mix of both. Obviously when the first (string QB) leaves, we’re going to keep some ‘ones’ in just to keep the offense intact so the (second string) guy can play his best.” John Fox doesn’t care about wins in August! The Bears opened preseason 0-3 last year. His starting QB Mike Glennon has been struggling in camp, unable to generate any chemistry with his receiving corps. I don’t trust #2 Mark Sanchez, even in a preseason game. And we can expect plenty of rookie Mitch Trubisky tonight, making his debut against a ‘real ‘ Broncos defense, stop unit that shut out Chicago in a 22-0 win over the Bears in Week 1 of the preseason last year. Throw in an overhauled Bears secondary, primed to get lit up, and a similar final score this year would be no surprise for this bettor! Take the Broncos. |
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08-10-17 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 38 | 9-24 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Green Bay – Philadelphia OVER (#263-264) The Eagles have all the makings of an Over team here in the preseason, worth betting Over the total right here from Week 1. There are two key factors for Philly in play when it comes to totals this August. First, head coach Doug Pederson isn’t keeping his kid gloves on, looking to open up the offense for more downfield throws. And secondly, the Eagles secondary is, to put it politely, a ‘work in progress’ right now, primed to get lit up tonight! Philly defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz told reporters that he was planning to call man-to-man coverage more often tonight than he will in September because he wants to allow his CB’s to square off against the Packers receivers in one on one situations. His quote: “A lot of times you go into preseason games, and you're there to evaluate players. We had a couple times last year where we played man-to-man just about every snap just to see those guys. You call a preseason game a lot different than you call a regular season game because you want to see players compete, see players win." Don’t be shocked in the slightest if the Packers generate more than their fair share of big plays in the passing game, even without Aaron Rodgers on the field. Let’s not forget how a healthy Brett Hundley lit up opposing defenses in the preseason two years ago, and Joe Callahan behind him showed well in August last year. Carson Wentz isn’t going to get many snaps for the Eagles tonight, but with the likes of Nick Foles and Matt McGloin and Nick Foles behind him, the Philadelphia QB rotation is rock solid for August. 4th stringer Dane Evans has the wheels to scramble for first downs should we need one last score in the fourth quarter to send this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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08-10-17 | Indians -1.5 v. Rays | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland on the Run Line (#911) To call Tampa Bay ‘ice cold’ offensively right now would be something of an understatement. The Rays have scored four runs in their last five games COMBINED on their current homestand, shut out three times during that span. Manager Kevin Cash stated the obvious following their blowout loss to the Red Sox yesterday: “At the end of the day, if we aren't going to put runs up, it's going to be tough to win." Don’t expect the Rays lineup to come alive today against Danny Salazar and the rested Indians bullpen behind him (only two innings needed from the bullpen over the past three days). Salazar has owned this lineup, allowing current Rays to hit just .141 against him in their careers. In three starts since the All Star Break, Salazar has thrown three gems, allowing just eight hits and three runs in 20 innings of work. Expect another strong showing here! Salazar’s recent excellence stands in sharp contrast to Rays starter Blake Snell’s struggles. Snell has been such a disappointment this season – still winless after 14 starts – that he was demoted down to AA last week. But with injuries continuing to plague the Rays staff (Alex Cobb going on the DL), Snell got called back up without throwing a pitch in the minors; unable to work on (or work out) his significant command issues. That’s no confidence boost against a team that beat him 6-0 the only previous time that he faced the Tribe. Given the Rays offensive struggles and the Indians bullpen excellence (and rest), I’ve bet this one on the Run Line, offering a nice ‘plus price’ return. Expect a comfortable victory for the road favorite! Take the Indians on the Run Line. |
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08-09-17 | Orioles -127 v. Angels | 1-5 | Loss | -127 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#963) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner with the Orioles on Monday, primed to cash again with Baltimore in afternoon action today. Buck Showalter’s squad is ‘bet-on’ all the way today following yesterday’s 3-2 loss, having won 8 of their last 11 overall, making a strong push towards a Wild Card spot. LA has basically run out of starting pitchers. Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards and Andrew Heaney have been out all year. Matt Shoemaker just had season ending surgery. Even the replacements for the expected starters have gotten hurt, with Alex Meyer joining those on the DL just after the All Star Break. That’s why we’re seeing Mike Scioscia trotting out the likes of Troy Scribner out to the mound today. Scribner isn’t supposed to be pitching in the big leagues yet, but LA has run out of decent options. His first start came against Oakland last week, and it wasn’t pretty: five runs allowed in four innings, more walks than strikeouts. This potent Orioles lineup is primed to light him up today. And the Angels bullpen behind him, like the starting staff, is a shell of what it was projected to be, with three key relievers also out of action here in August. Kevin Gausman’s season long numbers aren’t particularly impressive, but his current form certainly is. He’s allowed one run or less in six of his last eight starts. He got hammered in his first start after the All Star Break, but in his last four outings, Gausman has allowed a grand total of two runs – both on solo shots – while striking out 32 batters and eating up 27.2 innings. He’s an undervalued commodity in the markets due to that poor start to the season, offering legit value as short chalk in a game that has all the makings of a mismatch. Take the Orioles. |
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08-08-17 | Cardinals -117 v. Royals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#929) My clients and I have supported Michael Wacha in several recent starts, and there’s every reason to believe that Wacha remains a ‘bet-on’ pitcher today as the Cardinals continue their series in KC against the Royals. Wacha has found his groove, pitching into the sixth inning in six of his last seven outings. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last ten trips to the hill, with St Louis posting a 7-3 mark in those ballgames. The combination of a steady diet of strikeout and ground ball outs is giving opposing hitters nothing but trouble, and his track record against the KC lineup is rock solid. The Cardinals bats have woken up, pounding out 28 runs during their current three game winning streak. That’s bad news for Jason Vargas, who has cooled off rather dramatically since his red hot start to the campaign. Vargas had a 7.23 ERA in four July starts and got hit hard, lasting only five innings in his first start of August. Current Cardinals have hit .400 against him with a .985 OPS – even in a short sample size, those are ugly numbers. And with KC slumping, now 3-7 since their nine game winning streak was snapped, there’s ample reason to expect the Royals struggles to continue today. Take the Cardinals. |
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08-07-17 | Orioles +113 v. Angels | 6-2 | Win | 113 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#957) Orioles starter Dylan Bundy was in a nasty funk heading into the All Star Break. His velocity was down, his strikeout rate was down and he had a 5.93 ERA in June before getting lit up by the Twins and Rays in his first two starts in July, just before the break. Manager Buck Showalter decided to give Bundy some extra rest between starts. In his first start with extra rest, he threw six innings of four hit, one run ball against the Rangers. He went with normal rest next time out and got hammered by the Astros, although Baltimore won the game. Showalter gave Bundy extra rest again before his last start and it was another gem: eight innings of three hit, one run ball against KC. No surprise then, that Bundy is on an extra day of rest again tonight, a key factor that the betting markets haven’t seemed to pay any attention too in early betting action on Monday. Baltimore is in excellent current form, winning seven of their last nine overall, including a pair of blowouts over the Tigers this past weekend. LA, on the other hand, is coming off a miserable weekend – shut out on Saturday, then victims of an ugly blown save on Sunday when a 10-5 lead in the seventh inning turned into an 11-10 defeat. Key bullpen arms Yusmeiro Petit and Blake Parker as well as closer Bud Norris aren’t likely to see the field tonight. Don’t expect a gem from LA starter JC Ramirez this evening, bad news considering the bullpen issues behind him. Ramirez has thrown 100+ innings in three consecutive starts; clearly problematic for a guy who came into the season without a single start at the big league level; a bullpen guy since he came into the league back in 2013. Baltimore tends to hit hard throwing fastballers like Ramirez pretty well, and that Orioles lineup is clicking right now, pounding out five runs or more six times in their last eight ballgames. Wrong team favored here! Take the Orioles. |
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08-05-17 | Diamondbacks -128 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#963). Sorry, Teddy will not have a detailed write-up for this game. He is at the IFBC conference in Costa Rica. Watch the Livestream at www.ifbc.live. Normal write-ups will resume on Monday, sincere apologies for any inconvenience... |
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08-04-17 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Washingon - Chicago OVER (#901-902). Sorry, Teddy will not have a detailed write-up for this game. He is speaking at the IFBC conference in Costa Rica on Friday. Watch his entire talk (starting at noon Eastern/9 AM Pacific) at www.ifbc.live. Normal write-ups will resume on Monday, sincere apologies for any inconvenience... |
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08-03-17 | Cardinals -121 v. Brewers | 1-2 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#951) Sorry, no detailed write-up for Thursday's early start game. Teddy is about to jump on a plane to Costa Rica for the IFBC Football Betting Conference this weekend. Normal write-ups will resume on Monday, sorry for any inconvenience. |
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08-02-17 | Royals v. Orioles -123 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#918) The Orioles have been a VERY streaky team all year, and they’ve flipped the switch ‘on’, notching four consecutive wins heading into Wednesday’s series finale with the Royals. And, just as importantly, the Baltimore locker room is a very different place now than it was last week; with the Orioles turning out to be buyers, not sellers, at the trading deadline. All of a sudden, this team is only 3.5 games behind KC for the final Wild Card slot, a gap that I expect will decline once again following tonight’s game. Jeremy Hellickson was the big acquisition for Baltimore at the trading deadline, and he’ll be pitching on extra rest in his Orioles debut. “I'm ready to help…. So I got traded and looked at the standings and saw we're only five games back, 5 1/2, whatever. So still two months of baseball to play. I've been part of teams that came back from nine back in a month, so it's definitely doable. It is always fun to come back to and do things people say you can't do. Will be a fun two months." Hellickson is no ace, but he spent the season eating up innings and keeping the last place Phillies in games. He’ll be facing a Kansas City lineup that has suddenly gone cold, scoring only three runs in the first two games of this series. Behind him, the Orioles bullpen is in great shape following back-2-back strong outings from Dylan Bundy and Ubaldo Jimenez over the past two days. It’s surely worth noting that elite closer Zack Britton was NOT dealt at the deadline…. Royals starter Jason Vargas recorded an out past the fifth inning only once in four July starts. His season long stats are impressive, but he’s been regressing, as expected by the advanced metric stats. A 6-0/1.98 ERA in June morphed into a 1-1/7.23 ERA in July. And his 3.00 ERA translates into an xFIP of 4.92 – we can and should expect continued regression from a hurler who has shown real vulnerability to the home run ball of late. KC’s impressive winning streak from last week is already a long way in the rear view mirror now…..Take the Orioles. |
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08-01-17 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Colorado – New York OVER (#961-962) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up recommending a wager against Steven Matz in San Diego in his last outing: Steven Matz is a ‘bet-against’ pitcher right now, plain and simple, nowhere near his ‘A’ game following elbow surgery. The Mets are 2-5 in his last seven trips to the hill. In his last three starts, Matz has lasted a combined 10.1 innings while allowing 23 hits and 15 earned runs. His strikeout rate is way down, his ground ball rate is down and his advanced metrics numbers clearly show that Matz’s 4.67 ERA is no aberration. Mets manager Terry Collins: “He just has to go back to making better pitches. His stuff is fine. He just has to command his fastball a little better. It's been getting too much of the plate." Matz was every bit as bad in San Diego as he’s been everywhere else of late; lasting only three innings while giving up nine hits and six earned runs. His lone previous start against the Rockies this year was as ugly as it gets; unable to record an out in the second inning; a seven run debacle. Current Rockies are hitting .500 against Matz in their careers. The Mets just traded away key bullpen arms behind Matz, sellers at the deadline. Facing a Rockies lineup that has scored 10. 9. 9, 18, 5, 7 and 13 runs in their last seven home games, expect Matz and the bullpen behind him to struggle mightily once again tonight. The Rockies are a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. So are the Mets, the single strongest Over team in baseball this year, 61-31 to the Over. While they dealt away Lucas Duda at the deadline, the Mets kept most of their lineup intact; a lineup that has continued to produce Overs: 8-2 to the Over in their last ten ballgames. They hit struggling Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman hard less than three weeks ago, and Hoffman has been even worse in the two starts since that game, allowing 14 runs over seven innings of work in his last two starts combined. On a warm summer evening in the Mile High air of Denver, this game has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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07-31-17 | Mariners +113 v. Rangers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 113 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle (#911) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner with the Mariners on the Run Line in their 9-1 blowout over the Mets on Sunday. And there’s every reason to think that Seattle will continue their winning ways against Cole Hamels and the Rangers in Arlington this evening. While only two games separate the Rangers and Mariners in the standings, there’s a world of difference in the mentality and approaches between these two teams right now. The Mariners haven’t pulled the plug on their season, still very much in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. They’ve been buyers, picking up David Phelps and Erasmo Ramirez to sure up their pitching staff. They just won series against the Mets and Red Sox, feeling pretty good about themselves while swinging some hot bats. The Rangers, on the other hand, are sellers at the trade deadline, jettisoning veterans and salary at every reasonable opportunity. Jonathan LuCroy got dumped last night, with more trades expected to follow between now and the first pitch tonight. The Rangers just lost back-2-back series at home to the sub .500 Marlins and the sub .500 Orioles, allowing 46 runs in six games in the process. The betting markets don’t like Felix Hernandez anymore; not with his average fastball velocity way down and his age starting to show – hence the underdog price on Seattle tonight. But King Felix has been solid of late, allowing only six runs in three starts since the All Star Break. Hernandez threw 7.1 innings of one run ball against Texas in his lone start against them this year. And Seattle’s bullpen behind him is in good shape tonight off James Paxton’s gem on Sunday. Be sure to click ‘action’ when you make this wager, not ‘listed pitchers’ because there’s a chance that Cole Hamels could get dealt before the deadline (Texas wouldn’t be favored without Hamels on the hill tonight). I’m assuming Hamels is going to pitch, but he’s not in great form, struggling with the gopher ball of late: four dingers allowed in his last two starts. The Mariners hit him hard in his lone previous start against them this year, picking up right where they left off last year. In their two games against Hamels post-All Star Break last year, Seattle bashed Hamels for 13 earned runs in just six innings of work. Behind Hamels, the Rangers bullpen is a gas can right now. Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Mariners. |
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07-30-17 | Mets v. Mariners -1.5 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#980) on the Run Line The Mariners haven’t pulled the plug on their season, still very much in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. They’ve been buyers, picking up David Phelps and Erasmo Ramirez to sure up their pitching staff. And they’ve got their underrated ace on the mound today, a bet-on hurler in every sense of the word. The top three pitchers in FIP this season are Chris Sale, Alex Wood and Corey Kluber, a trio of high priced, well publicized aces. #4 on that list is James Paxton. And in July, Paxton has been the best of the bunch: 5-0 with a 1.62 ERA, allowing only 19 hits and six runs while striking out 38 batters in 33.1 innings of work. In his last two starter, Paxton went seven full innings against the potent Astros and Red Sox lineups, allowing just a single run in the process. It’s surely worth noting that in the 11 times Seattle has won with Paxton on the hill this year, they’re 11-0 on the Run Line, winning every one of those games by multi-run margins. His quote after shutting down the Astros: "I just felt really good.I was throwing the curveball for strikes, moving the fastball around, mixing in some cutters, too, a few changeups. Everything was just feeling really good and Z (catcher Mike Zunino) did a great job of calling the game back there." Unlike Seattle, the Mets have been sellers at the trade deadline, trading away veteran leaders like Lucas Duda in recent days. And trade rumors are swirling around the locker room with Jay Bruce, Addison Reed, Curtis Granderson and Asdrubal Cabrera among many on the block. After a good start to this road trip, the Mets have now lost three of their last four, not a ‘bet-on’ team out West right now. And with starter Seth Lugo boasting an ERA more than a run and a half higher on the highway than he has at home, I’m quite comfortable laying the run and a half with the Mariners this afternoon. Take the Mariners on the Run Line. |
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07-29-17 | Reds v. Marlins -138 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#908) The Cincinnati Reds are a dead nuts ‘bet-against’ team right now, a hopeless squad that has thrown in the towel on the 2017 campaign. Cinci opened the second half with a 2-8 homestand. They’ve gone 0-5 since hitting the highway, losing all five games by multi-run margins. Quotes like this one from manager Bryan Price don’t inspire much confidence from this bettor – his entire focus is on evaluating talent for next year, not winning games this year: “These last 10 weeks are very important because I think we have to have a vision of what our starting rotation is going to look like in 2018, but we have to have that vision in 2017. I think it's going to be very difficult to come in and say, talk about, being really competitive if the vision isn't — if we don't know what 2018 is going to look like, at least from the outset.” The Reds pitching staff is in shambles, bad news against a Marlins team that has found their stroke, pounding out 33 runs while winning each of their last three ballgames. The Reds starters have combined to rank dead last in MLB in innings pitched, ERA and FIP. As a result, their bullpen is completely gassed, throwing gas on fires instead of putting them out. And Price is trying to stretch out his starters, leaving them in games where a strong bullpen would have their collective backs. All of which is bad news with Tim Adleman on the hill tonight. The Reds are 2-7 in Adleman’s last nine starts, and he’s getting worse, not better, with an 0-4 mark and a 6.48 ERA here in July. Behind him, the Cinci bullpen is spent off back-2-back short outings from their starters over the past two nights. Marlins starter Adam Conley will be facing an ice cold Reds lineup, held to just 45 runs during this 2-13 slide since the break. Price: “We don't have anybody who's on fire. We haven't gotten to our power in the second half, which had been our strength in terms of driving the ball for extra-base hits." The Reds average nearly a full run per nine innings lower against opposing southpaws compared to righties. Conley has looked like an ace since coming off the DL, allowing just two runs in 13 innings over a pair of starts. Anything close to that level of performance tonight and we should cash this bet with relative ease. Take the Marlins. |
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07-28-17 | Indians -1.5 v. White Sox | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#975) on the Run Line The White Sox have been playing non-competitive baseball for weeks, a team worth betting against at every reasonable opportunity. Chicago isn’t hitting, producing 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 2, 6, 1 and 0 runs in their last nine games. The White Sox aren’t winning either; in the midst of an ugly, season defining 2-15 skid. They’re worth betting against again tonight. White Sox starter Mike Pelfrey lasted only five innings against the Cubs last night. James Shields lasted only four innings for the ChiSox on Wednesday. Carlos Rodon lasted only four innings on Tuesday. And make no mistake about it -- the White Sox bullpen has been struggling mightily since trading away David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle to the Yankees and Anthony Swarzak to Minnesota. Another key veteran bullpen arm, Dan Jennings, just got traded to Tampa Bay yesterday, leaving that overworked bullpen completely depleted heading into tonight’s game. And that’s bad news with Derek Holland on the mound tonight. Holland is yet another aging veteran just biding his time on a last place team, hanging on by a thread as a big league pitcher. Holland didn’t finish the sixth inning in any of his four previous July starts, with an 8.69 ERA this month. That comes on the heels of his 9.55 ERA in five June starts. Facing a red hot Indians team – seven straight wins, while averaging more than seven runs per game during that span – is not what Derek Holland or the bullpen behind him need right now. Indians starter Danny Salazar came off the DL by throwing seven innings of one hit shutout ball against the Blue Jays; a ‘bet-on’ hurler all the way right now. And unlike the White Sox bullpen, the Indians bullpen is an elite unit, capable of holding a multi-run lead so we can cash our Run Line tickets without a late inning sweat. Take the Indians on the Run Line. |
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07-27-17 | Cubs -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the Chicago Cubs (#915) on the Run Line After a first half in which, quite legitimately, every single Chicago Cubs regular underachieved offensively, Chicago’s bats have come to life since the All Star Break. The numbers don’t lie. The Cubs hit .239 as a team before the break, but they’re hitting .292 since. Chicago’s slugging percentage has gone up from .419 to .527, their collective OPS from .744 to .883. Plain and simple – the full season numbers aren’t reflecting this potent lineup’s current form – red hot. The Cubs have scored five runs or more eight times in 12 games since the All Star Break, while going 10-2 overall, taking over sole possession of first place in the NL Central for the first time since May. This is a a hot team playing arguably their best ball of the season right now. That’s bad news for Mike Pelfrey and the beleaguered White Sox bullpen behind him. James Shields lasted only four innings for the ChiSox on Wednesday, Carlos Rodon lasted only four innings on Tuesday, and the White Sox bullpen has been struggling mightily since trading away David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle to the Yankees and Anthony Swarzak to Minnesota. Another key veteran bullpen arm, Dan Jennings, just got traded to Tampa Bay this morning, leaving that overworked bullpen depleted heading into tonight’s game. Pelfrey is only in the starting rotation because of the White Sox massive rebuild; a veteran arm, nothing more, nothing less. With a 25-57 W/L record since 2011, pitching meaningless innings for a last place team, clearly Pelfrey is a ‘bet-against’ hurler all the way. And he’s getting worse, not better, as the season progresses with a 6.08 ERA here in July. Just as importantly, Pelfrey isn’t eating innings, getting through the sixth only twice in 16 starts this season. Even if the Cubs don’t tee off against Pelfrey (and I think they will), they should have ample opportunity to put up runs in bunches against the White Sox bullpen behind him. Cub starter Jon Lester allowed 16 runs in just 5.2 innings of work in his last two games before the All Star Break, an ugly stretch. But Lester has found his game since, throwing 15 innings over his last two starts while allowing only six hits and three runs, both truly dominating efforts. The bullpen behind him has every key arm rested and ready. The White Sox aren’t hitting, producing 3, 2, 3, 4, 2, 6, 1 and 0 runs in their last eight games. The White Sox aren’t winning either; in the midst of an ugly, season defining 2-14 skid. They’re worth betting against again tonight, in Big Ticket fashion! Big Ticket: Take the Cubs on the Run Line. |
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07-26-17 | Mets v. Padres +101 | 3-6 | Win | 101 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Take San Diego (#960) Steven Matz is a ‘bet-against’ pitcher right now, plain and simple, nowhere near his ‘A’ game following elbow surgery. The Mets are 2-5 in his last seven trips to the hill. In his last three starts, Matz has lasted a combined 10.1 innings while allowing 23 hits and 15 earned runs. His strikeout rate is way down, his ground ball rate is down and his advanced metrics numbers clearly show that Matz’s 4.67 ERA is no aberration. Mets manager Terry Collins:“He just has to go back to making better pitches. His stuff is fine. He just has to command his fastball a little better. It's been getting too much of the plate." Jhouyls Chacin was built for Petco Park, where his fly ball ways don’t hurt him. He’s got a 1.94 ERA in ten starts on this field, compared to 7.35 in ten starts on the highway. But even those numbers are somewhat misleading, because he’s been good everywhere all month, with the Padres going 4-0 in Chacin’s four July starts and Chacin allowing only six runs in those four games combined. Chacin’s single worst start of the season came at Citi Field back in May, and from all indications, he’s itching for the rematch. The Mets are primed to be active sellers over the next week, with trade rumors hanging over key veterans like Lucas Duda, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson, among others. This isn’t a team primed to win three in a row on the highway very often, especially with their bullpen in shambles following a nasty streak of injuries. The home team should be chalk here, but the betting markets have given us a bargain! Take the Padres. |
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07-25-17 | Orioles +114 v. Rays | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#917) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner with the Orioles in their 5-0 shutout victory at Tampa Bay last night. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from what I wrote yesterday. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “To say that Tampa Bay just suffered through a rough weekend would be something of an understatement. They lost their series finale at Oakland in blowout fashion, then returned home to get swept by the Rangers. Tampa held a late lead in all three losses to Texas, suffering a blown save, a bullpen loss and a game losing three run homer following a two out error. Meanwhile, the Orioles just closed out their homestand by winning five out of seven, staying alive in the Wild Card race. Their potent lineup is on fire right now, pounding out 54 runs during that seven game span.” Tampa’s bullpen threw gas on the fire AGAIN last night, entering the game in the 8th inning facing a 1-0 deficit, with four runs crossing home plate in their 1.2 innings of work. And today’s starter, Jacob Faria is coming off his worst (and shortest) start of his young career. It’s surely worth noting that this will be the third time the Orioles have seen Faria since mid-June – he’s not going to fool this hot hitting lineup. The Rays bats have gone cold, held to three runs or less in seven of ten games since the All Star Break. They’ve struggled against opposing southpaws like Wade Miley all year, averaging more than half a run per game less versus lefties compared to righties. Miley threw seven innings of four hit, two run ball against Tampa in his lone previous start against them this year. And the Orioles bullpen behind him is in good shape off Kevin Gausman’s gem last night. Take the Orioles. |
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07-25-17 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Philadelphia OVER (#923-924) The Astros have scored 36 runs on the first four games of their road trip; at least seven in every contest. This isn’t new or different. Houston has outscored the second highest scoring team in baseball by more than 50 runs. They lead MLB in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS, all by wide margins. Only the Mets, A’s and Rays have cashed more Over bets than the Astros this season. And there’s no reason to expect Houston’s hot bats to cool off in Philadelphia tonight. Phillies manager Pete Mackanin doesn’t sound particularly confident that inconsistent starter Nick Pivetta and the worn down bullpen behind him will be able to shut down the Astros any better than last night, when the Astros flew Over the total all by themselves. "This is as good a team as we've seen. They're very aggressive hitters, and you can't make mistakes." Pivetta has allowed 11 home runs in his last six starts, a young pitcher prone to ‘making mistakes’. The Phillies bullpen behind him leads the majors with 25 losses this season (and only 14 saves!). But the Phillies bats have finally shown signs of life since the Break, scoring 49 runs in their last eight games; producing at least five runs seven times during that span. Astros starter Charlie Morton has a bad home/road split (ERA nearly two runs higher on the highway) and a poor track record in Citizens Bank Ballpark. Behind him, the Astros bullpen is spent after Brad Peacock, Lance McCullers and Collin McHugh all failed to finish the fifth inning over the past three days. Even home plate umpire Dan Iassogna is trending Over; 26-13 to the Over since the start of the 2016 campaign in games totaled at 9 or less. Expect fireworks. Take the Over. |
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07-24-17 | Orioles -101 v. Rays | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#963) To say that Tampa Bay just suffered through a rough weekend would be something of an understatement. They lost their series finale at Oakland in blowout fashion, then returned home to get swept by the Rangers. Tampa held a late lead in all three losses to Texas, suffering a blown save, a bullpen loss and a game losing three run homer following a two out error. The bullpen concerns are paramount here, because starter Blake Snell isn’t eating innings. The Rays are 1-5 in his last six starts, the only victory coming via a blown save in the ninth; a game Tampa stole. Only once in Snell’s last ten starts has he recorded an out in the sixth inning, suffering from high pitch counts and far too many walks; a young hurler who, quite frankly, doesn’t trust his stuff. Snell has averaged nearly a walk per INNING since coming off the DL on June 28th, something even the free swinging Orioles should take advantage of. The Orioles just closed out their homestand by winning five out of seven, staying alive in the Wild Card race. Their potent lineup is on fire right now, pounding out 54 runs during that seven game span. Starter Kevin Gausman has endured more than his fair share of ugly outings this year – hence his 6.11 ERA. But Gausman’s xFIP is a full run and a half lower than that, he’s coming off a four hit gem against the Rangers in his last start, and he held Tampa to two hits in seven scoreless innings when he faced them earlier this month. And the Orioles bullpen is in decent shape behind him, with Zack Britton needing only 16 pitches yesterday to notch his first save since coming off the DL. Take the Orioles. |
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07-23-17 | Cardinals +151 v. Cubs | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#913) Let me start with an excerpt from my last write-up supporting Michael Wacha and the Cardinals, from his complete game shutout over the Mets last week: “Michael Wacha has suffered through his own share of injuries in his career, but he's healthy and back on track right now, off three consecutive dominant starts heading into the break: 17.2 innings of work, 3 runs allowed with a 23-4 strikeout to ball ratio. The Cardinals won each of those starts, an emerging streak worth riding.” Wacha was every bit as dominant against the Mets as he had been in each of those previous three outings, allowing only three hits and one walk over nine innings. The Cards are still three games under .500 after Saturday’s one run defeat, but they’re 6-1 in Wacha’s last seven trips to the hill, and he’s got an 0.87 ERA here in July. That’s a dramatic turnaround from their 3-7 mark in his first ten starts, and an ERA over 5.00 in both May and June. As is often the case post-All Star Break, the markets are lagging behind Wacha’s current reality, with those full season numbers clearly affecting this moneyline. The Cubs bats have cooled off after a red hot run after the Break and St Louis has a winning record against opposing southpaws like Jose Quintana. All the pressure is on Quintana tonight, making his first start at Wrigley for the Cubs in front of a national TV audience. Frankly, I’m not convinced it will go well…. Live dog here! Take the Cardinals. |
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07-22-17 | Padres +125 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Take San Diego (#953) The Giants have no business as favorites in this ballgame. Off another frustrating loss last night, San Francisco is now 5-16 in their last 21 games, a nasty little free fall. Manager Bruce Bochy doesn’t see an immediate turnaround on the horizon either, after the Giants blew a pair of four run leads in yesterday’s extra inning defeat. Bochy: “That’s why we are at where we’re at (last place). We can’t put (pitching and hitting) together. That’s what’s hurt us.” Bochy used seven different relievers last night, leaving a depleted bullpen. That’s bad news with Matt Moore on the hill today. The Giants are 5-14 in Moore’s starts this season, a record that hasn’t come by accident. Moore has allowed at least four runs in every home start since the beginning of June, and the Giants are winless in those games. Meanwhile, the Padres lineup is hitting as well as they have at any point this season, pounding out 50 runs in the eight games since the break while scoring five or more six times during that span. Padres starter Luis Perdomo is coming off an awful outing at Coors Field. Expect far better results at pitcher friendly AT & T Park, where Perdomo has been light’s out as a starter, allowing only two earned runs in 12.1 innings over two starts there. He’s been cashing underdog tickets with some consistency of late, including a +210 at Cleveland, a +115 at home against Detroit and a +200 at Chicago since Memorial Day. ‘Live dog' here! Take the Padres. |
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07-21-17 | Pirates v. Rockies -137 | 13-5 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#908). Right now, Jeff Hoffman is a ‘bet-on’ pitcher at Coors Field, and the Rockies are most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ team. Colorado is 7-3 in Hoffman’s last ten starts. He’s throw seven full innings in each of his last two outings at Coors without reaching 95 pitches in either game; throwing very efficiently. The Rockies lineup behind him is on fire, pounding out AT LEAST nine runs in each of their last four ballgames. And there’s little reason for bettors to think that one of the most potent lineups in baseball is going to get shut down by Trevor Williams tonight. Williams certainly isn’t eating up innings, failing to finish the sixth eight times in 13 starts. Like many young pitchers, he’s been much better pitching at home than on the highway, a guy who is not built for success at hitter friendly Coors. Behind Williams, the Pirates bullpen was used extensively in their just concluded four game sweep over the Brewers. And Pittsburgh's lineup continues to struggle, held to five or less in every game since the break while barely averaging three runs per game. The Rockies roster bought into Bud Black from Day 1 this year, making this particular quote stand out to me: “ We got beat pretty soundly in those first two games (after the All Star Break), didn’t pitch well. Our guys came out Sunday morning on a mission. I think that’s been carrying over, I really do.” Cheap price to lay with the superior team and the superior pitcher, both in excellent current form. Take the Rockies. |
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07-20-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | 8-6 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Boston - Toronto UNDER (961-962) The betting markets have knee-jerked to the Over in early betting action on Thursday. After all, it’s a hot, humid day in Boston with a pair of suspect starting pitchers. But this getaway day game most assuredly does NOT have ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Don’t be surprised if Red Sox manager John Farrell rests some key starters today. Boston played a 16 inning marathon on Saturday, a day/night doubleheader on Sunday and a 15 inning marathon on Tuesday. His quote following last night’s win: “Our roster is out of balance with extra pitchers; we’re able to rotate guys through. We’re going to have a little different look tomorrow, just maybe to conserve physically with some guys.” The Red Sox haven’t been hitting since the break, scoring five runs or less in every game. In fact, they’ve been held to three runs or less in six of their last nine, not exactly tearing the cover off the ball with their bats. No surprise, then, that the Red Sox have cashed six straight Unders. They’ve been strongly trending towards the Under at home for months, cashing only five Over tickets in their last 23 home games. Toronto’s key bats are all cold. Josh Donaldson isn’t hitting, Jose Bautista isn’t hitting, Troy Tulowitzki isn’t hitting and the Jays, like the Red Sox, haven’t put together any offensive explosions since the break. Both bullpens are in solid current form as well. This is one time where the optimal strategy is to zig while the markets zag…… Take the Under. |
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07-19-17 | Tigers -106 v. Royals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Detroit (#923) Three years ago, the Kansas City Royals were a World Series team. Two years ago, they won the World Series. Last year, the Royals were in the thick of the playoff race until a September swoon. But here in 2017, Kansas City is a sub .500 squad right now, with the feel of a team headed in the wrong direction over the second half of the campaign. Make no mistake about it — the Royals have played lifeless, lethargic baseball while losing four out of five since the All Star Break, outscored 28-12 in the process. Don’t expect that to change tonight with Jason Hammel on the hill on a hot, humid night in KC. Here’s Hammel’s quote when asking whether he liked pitching in these conditions. “Honestly, no. Growing up in Seattle it was not humid in the summertime. Probably 80 tops, beautiful summers. I’ve always been a sweater. For whatever reason, I just sweat like a pig.” The Royals have lost each of Hammel’s last four starts and he’s been rocked here in July, with a 6.35 ERA this month in three previous starts. For the season, KC is 4-14 with Hammel on the hill. Yet he’s in a pick em price range here, because the betting markets have assumed the Tigers aren’t focused, with veterans like JD Martinez being dealt and the potential for more trades ahead. Yet Detroit has blown out KC in the first two games of this series. And they’ve OWNED Hammel. Current Tigers have an OPS above .900 against him. Detroit knocked Hammel out of the game after 4.1 innings in his lone previous outing against them this year, and he’s got an 8.02 ERA in ten career outings against them. Plus, the Royals bullpen behind him is spent after getting only 7.1 innings from their starters over the past two days. Justin Verlandet, too, is on the trading block. But he’s pitching behind an offense that is crushing the ball right now, scoring 36 runs while winning four straight. And Verlander has owned the Royals: 23-10 against them in his career; 13-6 with a 2.90 ERA here at Kaufmann Stadium, He’s thrown two strong seven inning efforts against KC already this season, and the only reason he’s not 2-0 in those starts is because the Tigers lost 1-0 in one of them. I’m certainly not anticipating that to happen against Hammel tonight! Big Ticket: Take the Tigers.
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07-18-17 | Rays -106 v. A's | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#973) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting Tampa Bay last night. The numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: "The Rays are coming off a winning series in Anaheim, now trailing Boston by only two games in the AL East. That’s a far cry from the Oakland A’s, who have been a steady fixture in last place in the AL West for the last two months, despite a series sweep over the Indians this past weekend. The last time Oakland had a home sweep, they followed it up by getting swept in a four game set at home in their next series; not the type of squad primed to deliver extended runs of winning baseball over the back half of the campaign." "Oakland GM Billy Beane has announced that the team is in full rebuild mode. He just traded two key relievers for future prospects, leaving manager Bob Melvin to say this about his bullpen moving forward: "We'll figure it out on the fly a little bit.” In a pick ‘em price range, the choice here is clear.” The betting markets don’t like Rays starter Blake Snell one bit. Snell was solid as a rookie last year, but he was sent down to Triple A for six weeks following a rough start to the campaign and he’s still winless in his 10 starts this season; walking far too many batters. But last time out, Snell threw five innings of shutout ball against the Cubs. His quote: “I definitely feel like I’m headed in the right direction…..I’ve got to attack the strike zone if I want to be here.” Facing an A’s squad that hasn’t hit lefties all year (.222 batting average, nearly a full run per nine innings less than vs righties), Snell offers legit ‘bet-on’ potential here. A’s starter Chris Smith does not, a 36 year old rookie who is only here because the A’s have run out of options. Given Oakland’s bullpen concerns behind him, Smith and the A’s have no business in a pick ‘em price range here. Take the Rays. |
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07-18-17 | Cardinals -115 v. Mets | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#953) While only three games separate the Mets and the Cardinals in the Wild Card standings, there’s a world of difference in the approach these two teams are taking for the stretch run of the MLB campaign. The injury riddled Mets have sent six different starting pitchers to the DL this year. The end result of all those pitching injuries is that we get to bet against a starter like Rafael Montero this evening. Montero was the eighth or ninth ranked starter for the Mets in training camp, and he’s spent most of the season working out of the bullpen. Montero doesn’t eat up innings, and he’s notched only one win as a starter all year, facing the hapless Giants when they were ice cold. The Mets bullpen behind him isn’t rested and ready after their starters over the past two days combined to last only 6.1 innings of work. Plain and simple — the Mets do not feel like a contender, 10.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and 14 games back of the Nationals in the NL East. St Louis enters Tuesday only 5.5 games back in the NL Central and 7.5 back of the Wild Card spot; a squad that isn’t looking to be sellers at the deadline. Starter Michael Wacha has suffered through his own share of injuries in his career, but he’s healthy and back on track right now, off three consecutive dominant starts heading into the break: 17.2 innings of work, 3 runs allowed with a 23-4 strikeout to ball ratio. The Cardinals won each of those starts, an emerging streak worth riding tonight at Citi Field. Take the Cardinals. |
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07-17-17 | Rays -101 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#923) Last year, Jake Odorizzi had a rough first half, winning only three of his 19 starts with an ERA of 4.47. After the All Star Game, he went 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA, including a truly dominant eight start run immediately following the break, allowing a combined total of 12 earned runs in those eight games. Odorizzi’s quote heading into his first post-break start against the A’s in Oakland tonight is meaningful, especially off a particularly dismal showing in his last outing before the break, lit up by the Red Sox. "I just need a restart. Get some time away and get back to throwing the ball in the second half like I did last year. I'm kind of in a familiar spot. I was able to rebound last year, and I need to do the same thing.” The Rays are coming off a winning series in Anaheim, now trailing Boston by only three games in the AL East. That’s a far cry from the Oakland A’s, who have been a steady fixture in last place in the AL West for the last two months, despite a series sweep over the Indians this past weekend. The last time Oakland had a home sweep, they followed it up by getting swept in a four game set at home in their next series; not the type of squad primed to deliver extended runs of winning baseball over the back half of the campaign. A’s rookie starter Daniel Gossett has been struggling mightily with the gopher ball, allowing eight dingers in his first 30.1 MLB innings of work. Oakland GM Billy Beane has announced that the team is in full rebuild mode. He just traded two key relievers for future prospects, leaving manager Bob Melvin to say this about his bullpen moving forward: "We'll figure it out on the fly a little bit.” In a pick ‘em price range, the choice here is clear. Take the Rays. |
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07-16-17 | Mariners -112 v. White Sox | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#969). To say that Derek Holland has been struggling of late is something of an understatement. The White Sox are 1-7 in his last eight starts, losing six times by multiple runs during that span. After two solid months to open the season, Holland has fallen apart, with a 9.55 ERA in June and an 11.57 ERA here in his first two July starts. From all indications, Holland’s viability as a major league starter is limited at best; not a guy primed for improvement coming out of the All Star Break. The White Sox aren’t primed for improvement either. They went into the break on a 1-4 skid, culminating in a 10-0 loss in Colorado last Sunday. They’ve come out of the break with back-to-back home losses to Seattle to open the series; notching only five runs and 13 hits in the two games combined. Now sitting in last place in the AL Central, Chicago has all the makings of a solid ‘bet-against’ team moving forward. The Mariners, on the other hand, despite numerous early season struggles, are only three games out of a Wild Card spot right now after winning the first two games of this series; 4-1 in their last five overall. Impressive rookie Andrew Moore has thrown three consecutive quality starts to open his big league career, walking only two batters in 21 innings of work. Ride the hot & fade the cold. Take the Mariners. |
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07-14-17 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -101 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#960) Sorry, no detailed write-up for today’s game — Teddy is in transit this morning. Full write-ups will resume, as normal, on Sunday. |
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07-09-17 | Red Sox -105 v. Rays | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#915) (Abbreviated write-up for this early start game). The Rays stole a win yesterday against the Red Sox, escaping a bases loaded jam in the ninth following a dominant showing from Alex Cobb to escape with the one run victory. Don’t expect another shutdown effort today from Chris Archer. Archer’s track record against Boston is downright ugly. He’s won only twice in 13 previous decisions against the Red Sox, with an ERA well over 5.00, including a 1-8 mark here at the Trop in Tampa — a field where the Red Sox enjoy significant crowd support on a daily basis. Meanwhile, David Price has owned his former squad. He’s thrown eight scoreless innings in each of his last two tries against the Rays. Boston has won four of his last five trips to the hill, primed to close out the first half with another victory against a Rays squad that isn’t hitting the ball as they head into the All Star Break. Take the Red Sox. |
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07-08-17 | Orioles v. Twins -120 | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#966). |
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07-07-17 | Pirates +128 v. Cubs | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#901) Last year at this time, the Cubs were sitting at 20 games over .500, on their way to a World Series title. That was then, this is now, but the betting markets continue to lag behind. This year, the Cubs are languishing right around the .500 mark. And when we look at the market response to Chicago’s mediocrity, it’s easy to see why the Cubs remain ‘fade’ material as they slump towards the All Star Break. The results don’t lie. Betting $100 on the Cubs in every game has resulted in a loss of just shy of 20 units since opening day. And yet here is Chicago as home chalk yet again, off an 11-2 blowout loss to the Brewers yesterday despite the return of Kyle Schwarber (and his .168 batting average) to the lineup. And a truly mediocre hurler like Eddie Butler is not primed to turn things around for the Cubs in early start action on Friday. Meanwhile, the Pirates are on a bit of an uptick, winners of three straight. They’ve won all three previous meetings with the Cubs at Wrigley this year. Starter Trevor Williams has allowed more than three runs only once all season, and the bullpen behind him is in good shape off back-2-back quality starts. ‘Live dog’ here! Take the Pirates. |
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07-06-17 | Brewers +154 v. Cubs | 11-2 | Win | 154 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#973) Last year at this time, the Cubs were sitting at 20 games over .500, while the Brewers were ten games under .500. That was then, this is now, but the betting markets continue to lag behind. This year, Milwaukee is a first place squad, seven games over .500 while the Cubs are languishing right at the .500 mark, 3.5 games back. And when we look at the market response to these two teams, the dichotomy between Chicago and Milwaukee couldn’t be more apparent. The results don’t lie. Betting $100 per game on Milwaukee this season has netted more than 12.5 units of profit Betting $100 on the Cubs in every game has resulted in a loss of more than 18 units. And yet here is Chicago as home chalk yet again, getting bet up in early action thanks to the return of Kyle Schwarber (and his .171 batting average) to the lineup. Zack Davies is no ace, and the advanced metrics do not favor him at all, yet the Brew-Crew have been winning behind him all year. Milwaukee is 11-3 in his last 14 starts including a remarkable 8-1 run in his last nine tries when priced as an underdog. Off three consecutive strong showings from their starters, the Brewers bullpen is in excellent shape tonight as well, rested and ready to close out the game given the opportunity to do so. The Cubs are just 1-5 in Mike Montgomery’s six starts, and he has not fared well against Milwaukee, allowing five runs in eight innings over four relief appearances earlier in the season. And the Cubs have been unable to string wins together, 0-6 in their last six tries following a single victory, like the one they had yesterday against Tampa. ‘Live’ Dog here! Take the Brewers. |
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07-05-17 | Red Sox -103 v. Rangers | 2-8 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#915) Let me start with an excerpt from my pro- Red Sox write-up from Monday, when Boston won the first game of this three game set in Texas. Numbers have been updated to reflect current realities: “The Red Sox are as hot as any team in baseball right now, off a dominating three game sweep in Toronto (outscoring the Blue Jays 29-6) as part of an 8-1 run in their last nine games. The Rangers, on the other hand, are an exhausted team, playing for the 20th consecutive day, in the midst of a dismal 1-6 skid as a sub .500 squad, 17 games out of first place and trailing seven teams in the Wild Card chase…. The Rangers bullpen is one key here in this price range; a struggling unit that needs a day off in the worst way. No Texas lead in this ballgame will be safe….if they get a lead at all!” With Boston tearing the cover off the ball with their bats (18 runs scored in the first two games of this series, six runs or more in six straight games), the Rangers bullpen woes should be on full display tonight. Starter Andrew Cashner is in lousy current form and he’s not healthy, dealing with a forearm injury from a line drive in his last start. “The bone kind of was hurting the last few days. I threw a bullpen (session) in Chicago, and it's been getting better each day. It's still a little tight…. It was very scary." A healthy Cashner got lit up for five runs in five innings at Fenway in an 11-6 loss earlier in the season. Each of the Red Sox last four starters has lasted at least six full innings, leaving their bullpen relatively fresh for a series finale in Arlington. And crafty veteran Doug Fister, back from injury, is primed to keep the floodgates from opening early. His quote is nothing but positive: “I'm feeling really good about things. I really feel good about the action on the pitches and the control of things.” Take the Red Sox. |
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07-04-17 | Angels +109 v. Twins | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Take the LA Angels (#963) The Twins aren’t expected to have leadoff sparkplug Brian Dozier in the lineup today (second on the team in home runs, RBI’s, hits and total bases), dealing with tightness in his lower back. That’s bad news on a day where they’re likely to have to score runs in bunches to notch a victory against the Angels. The Twins have been serious moneymakers on the highway all year, but they remain eight games under .500 at home. Starter Kyle Gibson has a grand total of ONE quality start in seven tries at Target Field this season, with an ERA above 7.00 on this field. Gibson isn’t eating innings at all these days, bad news considering the worn out, struggling Minnesota bullpen behind him. An overachieving squad through the first half of the campaign is just trying to hang on till the All Star Break; a bet-against team on the 4th of July. When Mike Trout got hurt on May 28th, the betting markets immediately ruled out the Angels chances for success. Yet despite the loss of their best player, LA has played .500 baseball in his absence, 17-17. 13 of their last 14 wins have come at an underdog price – that .500 record has offered savvy bettors a nice opportunity to profit from this overlooked squad; a team that won series at Yankees Stadium and Fenway Park on their last road trip. LA starter JC Ramirez has rock solid advanced metric numbers and one of the fastest fastballs in MLB. But Ramirez has been inconsistent, alternating good starts with bad ones over the past month. Ramirez has been at his best on the highway, 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA away from home; worthy of support today in this underdog price range. Take the Angels. |
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07-03-17 | Red Sox -114 v. Rangers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#911) The Red Sox are as hot as any team in baseball right now, coming off a dominating three game sweep in Toronto (outscoring the Blue Jays 29-6) as part of a 6-1 run in their last seven games. The Rangers, on the other hand, are an exhausted team, playing for the 18th consecutive day, returning home off a dismal 1-4 mark to close out their road trip as a sub .500 squad, 15.5 games out of first place and trailing seven teams in the Wild Card chase. Clearly, this is a spot that favors the road team. The matchups favor the road team as well. While Rick Porcello’s mainstream numbers have dropped off significantly this year – he went 22-4 last year with a 3.15 ERA and won the Cy Young Award, compared to a 4-10/5.06 this year – his advanced metric numbers clearly show he’s pitching just as well as he was in 2016. Porcello’s strikeout rate is the same as it was last year and his swinging strike percentage is even higher. But last year, Porcello had a career best BABIP – lucky when it came to good results on balls in play. This year, his BABIP is a career worst. The numbers clearly show he’s not pitching much differently, but the luck factor in the field behind him has not worked in his favor. Porcello seems concerned enough, but not too concerned to overadjust his mechanics. Here’s his quote following a loss to Minnesota in his last outing: "Six innings, four runs. It's not like they're beating the cover off the ball. It's just a couple things here and there that I got to clean up. I'm not making excuses for myself. I definitely hold myself accountable for the loss tonight. But in the grand scheme of things, got to keep building off of what I'm doing and what we're doing." The Rangers Martin Perez isn’t primed to eat innings tonight in his first start back off the DL. Perez is certainly no ace, allowing opponents to hit .315 off him this year while allowing more than a baserunner and a half per inning. The Rangers bullpen behind him is the key here in this price range; a struggling unit that needs a day off in the worst way. No Texas lead in this ballgame will be safe….if they get a lead at all! Take the Red Sox. |
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07-02-17 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 9.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
Take New York - Philadelphia OVER (#951-952). Sorry, no detailed write-up for this early start game today. |
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07-01-17 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – San Francisco OVER (#901-902) Here’s the quote from Giants manager Bruce Bochy following last night’s 13 run outburst, the Giants fourth consecutive victory: "I think we'll get more consistent and start scoring more runs. It's hard to imagine we would stay in the rut that we were in offensively. Now, this is a small sample here, but it shows you what happens when you get timely hits. You have a much better chance of winning the ballgame. We're getting a ton of them right now. It's getting contagious." Last night’s Slugfest continued a recent trend for the Giants, who have pounded out 31 runs in their last four ballgames. And there’s little reason to expect the offensive onslaught to slow down against Chad Kuhl and the exhausted Pirates bullpen behind him. Kuhl hasn’t notched a single quality start since mid-April, unable to last past the fifth inning due to consistently high pitch counts. Five different relievers got used last night following Gerritt Cole’s rough outing, leaving the pen vulnerable this afternoon as well; bad news on a warm day in Pittsburgh (temps in the mid 80’s), with the wind blowing out to right field. Matt Moore’s days of being an effective big league pitcher are a long way in the rear view mirror now. He had an 8.88 ERA in June while allowing more than two baserunners per inning. And when Moore’s been away from pitcher friendly AT & T Park, he’s been downright awful, with a .353 batting average against and ab 8.39 ERA in nine road starts. San Fran’s bullpen behind him has been nothing short of awful, and the Pirates bats have finally woken up, scoring four or more in six of their last seven contests. Expect fireworks! Take the OVER. |
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06-30-17 | Rays -119 v. Orioles | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#965) It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Chris Tillman and the Orioles bullpen behind him right now. Tillman missed the first five weeks of the season with a shoulder problem. He won his first start off the DL in early May. He hasn’t won since, allowing 44 runs in 39 innings over his last nine starts; giving up AT LEAST five runs in each of his last six trips to the hill. Tillman couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning against the Rays in Tampa last weekend, and I’m not expecting today’s showing to be any better in a ‘short turnaround, second look’ situation. Behind Tillman, the Orioles bullpen was a disaster area in June minus closer Zack Britton, ranking near the bottom in MLB of nearly every meaningful statistical category. And it’s not like Baltimore is swinging a bunch of hot bats with Chris Davis on the DL, held to five runs in their just concluded three game set at Toronto. The Rays pounded out 23 runs in their three game set against Baltimore last weekend, now only four games out in the AL East. Slugger Evan Longoria: “I think everybody in here believes we have a chance. This is a competitive team that has a chance to play in the postseason and has a chance to go very far.” Rookie starter Jake Faria has been nothing but stellar in his first four big league starts, with a 29-5 K/BB ratio and a 2.10 ERA, notching three wins and a no decision including impressive road victories at Detroit and at Toronto. Short chalk worth laying! Take the Rays. |
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06-29-17 | Braves +102 v. Padres | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#909) The Atlanta Braves have moved into the Top 10 teams in MLB in profitability this season. They’re profitable overall for the year despite an 11-20 start that included three losing streaks of five games or more. And they’ve done it despite the absence of their best hitter, Freddie Freeman, out since mid-May with a wrist injury. Manager Brian Snitker: “It's been very encouraging. Things have settled in, and we have played pretty good baseball." Yet the betting markets continue to sleep on the Braves; a team that doesn’t boast the ‘sexy’ starting pitchers with the better advanced metric stats, the type of pitchers that the markets routinely support. Atlanta has won each of their last four series despite being priced as underdogs or in a pick ‘em range in every game during that entire span except one. It’s surely worth noting that with the series on the line, the Braves notched series finale wins at Washington, against Miami and against San Francisco; all while going 8-3 in their last eleven ballgames. Jamie Garcia is no ace – hence the near pick ‘em price range to support Atlanta as I write this. But Garcia threw a quality start against the Padres in his lone previous outing against them this year. He mowed down the Padres in his only appearance against them last year too, with current Padres hitting just .189 against him with an OPS of .522 – not exactly stellar numbers. Coming off a pair of rough outings, this is an optimal bounceback spot for this wily veteran, facing a team that has struggled mightily against southpaws all year, just 7-14 in games against lefties while averaging only 2.5 runs per game. San Diego is what they’ve been in recent seasons – bottom feeders, with a roster filled with holes, a suspect starting staff and a bullpen that has taken 17 losses while ranking #12 in the NL in ERA. It’s surely worth noting that the Padres haven’t won back-2-back series since April. And rookie hurler Dinelson Lamet has struggled mightily with the gopher ball, allowing eight home runs in his first 30 innings of big league baseball. No edge whatsoever for the home team in this one! Big Ticket: Take the Braves. |
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06-28-17 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -131 | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#960) This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. Arizona has been arguably the biggest surprise in baseball this season, and they’re showing no signs of cooling off. The D-backs rank #1 in profitability through the first half of the season for two reasons. First, both their lineup and their bullpen have been more effective than they’re priced to be. Secondly, Arizona is not loaded with high priced aces, meaning bettors don’t have to lay much of a price to support them (and don’t take a beating when they lose). The D-backs are 30-10 at home, tied with the LA Dodgers for the best home winning percentage in all of MLB. They’ve gone 7-1 in starter Zack Godley’s last eight trips to the hill after losing his season debut back in April. Godley’s advanced metric numbers don’t impress the broader marketplace, but he’s coming off seven innings of four hit ball at Colorado and held the Brewers to two hits in six innings in his last home start. The bullpen behind him is in decent shape this evening and it’s a pen in excellent current form. Adam Wainwright has been lit up for 18 runs in 5.1 innings of work in his last two road starts. Wainwright was hit hard on his last visit to Chase Field and his strikeout pitch has virtually disappeared, bad news for a guy who ranked among the elite starters in MLB for the first half of this decade. The Cardinals bullpen behind him blew another multi-run lead last night, a real spirit killer for a squad that has dropped nine of their last 14, just 14-26 in their last 40. Ride the hot & fade the cold! Take the Diamondbacks. |
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06-27-17 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 10 | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Texas OVER (#919-920) Make no mistake about it—these are two hot hitting lineups right now. The Indians rallied back from a seven run deficit last night, pounding out 15 runs on 19 hits and seven walks. They’ve scored five runs or more ten times in their last 13 games. Rangers manager Jeff Bannister: “That's a group of hitters that are swinging the bat very well now. They are very aggressive." The Rangers lineup is every bit as hot, if not hotter. Texas has pounded out 36 runs in their last five games, while scoring five or more in nine of their last eleven overall. Bottom line: either lineup is capable of approaching or exceeding the total all by themselves…just like they did last night. Neither starter can be trusted here, and both bullpens behind the starters are completely spent. The Rangers have used every key arm out of their pen while blowing big leads over the past two days, following short starts from Cole Hamels and Nick Martinez. The Indians couldn’t get Carlos Carrasco out of the fourth inning last night, and we’ve seen their once elite bullpen have some hiccups of late – even Andrew Miller has allowed a run or more in three of his last six appearances. All of which makes this a problematic matchup for both starters tonight. Mike Clevinger is no ace in the making, and he doesn’t eat up innings, needing 100 pitches to survive five frames against Baltimore last time out. He’s recorded an out in the sixth inning only once in his last five trips to the hill. Tyson Ross has made three big league starts over the past two seasons and two of them have been downright ugly, unable to get into the fourth inning without getting bombed. Even home plate umpire Chris Segal has a bit of an Over bias; 41-26 to the over calling balls and strikes over the past four seasons including a 67% Over rate here in 2017. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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06-26-17 | Yankees -1.5 v. White Sox | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Take the New York Yankees on the RUN LINE (#961) Neither the Yankees nor the White Sox have played good ball of late. But there’s hope for the Yanks, a first place team that showed all kinds of fight yesterday after falling behind 6-0 early. There’s not much hope for ChiSox right now, a last place team that just allowed another last place team (Oakland) to notch their first road sweep of the season in a lifeless effort on Sunday. Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has drawn some comparison to Andy Pettitte; an intriguing young lefty without the stellar advanced metric stats that create high pricetags to support. Montgomery isn’t eating up innings, but he’s keeping the Yankees in every game, allowing only ten earned runs in his last six starts combined. Behind him, the Yankees bullpen remains an elite unit. Facing an ice cold White Sox lineup (five runs in three games over the weekend), look for Chicago’s offensive futility to continue tonight, even with the wind blowing out to left field. That wind will certainly help the Yankees big power bats against ChiSox starter David Holmberg. Don’t be fooled by Holmberg’s 2.84 ERA – his xFIP is sitting at 5.06. And without the ability to strike out hitters or induce ground balls consistently, Holmberg is a bad fit against the Bronx Bombers lineup. Holmberg came out of the bullpen for the first time in a month on Friday, and he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in any of his five previous starts this season – I’m not expecting a shutdown effort here. Behind him, the overachieving White Sox bullpen has come back to earth of late and they’re certainly not fresh off that rough weekend series with the A’s. Expect the Yankees to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight, winning this game by margin. Take the Yankees on the Run Line. |
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06-25-17 | A's -134 v. White Sox | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Take OAK (#923) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-22-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
7* Take under ARI/COL Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-21-17 | Cardinals -123 v. Phillies | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
10* Take STL (#905) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-20-17 | Reds v. Rays OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Take CIN Over 9 (#979) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-19-17 | Nationals -109 v. Marlins | 7-8 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Washington -109 (#901) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-17-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -120 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
I will be travelling out of Vegas on Sunday, June 11th through Saturday, June 24th. I will still be posting daily plays during this time, but I will NOT be doing my normal detailed write-ups until I return to Vegas on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding and support! Teddy |
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06-16-17 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -151 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -151 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
7* Take Toronto Blue Jays (#960) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians UNDER 8 | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland- LAD UNDER (#979-980) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-13-17 | A's v. Marlins OVER 9 | 1-8 | Push | 0 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Oakland -Miami OVER (#921-922). Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 58 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Golden State (#710) The Cavs and the Warriors have now played eleven games in the NBA Finals over the past two seasons. The straight up winner has gone 11-0 ATS in those games. Nine of the eleven games have been decided by 11 points or more. The optimal betting strategy, therefore, has been relatively simple: pick the SU winner and expect the ATS results to follow accordingly. I do not expect that to change in Game 5. Everything broke right for the Cavs in Game 4. They came out of the gate clicking on all cylinders, hanging 49 points on the Warriors in the first quarter. Kyrie Irving hit seven three pointers. Kevin Love hit six. JR Smith hit five. LeBron hit three trifectas as part of his triple double. Deron Williams, Iman Shumpert and Kyle Korver all hit three’s coming off the bench. If the Cavs shoot like that in Game 5, we’re not going to win this bet. But one game after connecting on 24 three pointers in an NBA Finals game, I expect the Cavs to be hard pressed to find a similar shooting touch, especially with an extra day between Games 4 & 5, allowing Steve Kerr to make the appropriate defensive adjustments. The Warriors still haven’t played a true ‘A’ level game here in the Finals. They missed layups in bunches in Game 1, committed 20 turnovers in Game 2 and trailed for most of the second half in Game 3. They were never even in Game 4. This is one of the elite teams in NBA history, in serious playoff revenge, with the memory of last year’s collapse still in the background. They’re coming off their single worst game of the playoffs, returning to their dominant homecourt; a floor where they have won six of seven playoff games by double digit margins. Steph Curry was a non-factor in Game 4, scoring only 13 points on four made shots. “Just one of those games. Not going to overreact to one. Obviously I can play better and want to play better and will play better." I concur. Expect the confetti to fall from the rafters as the Warriors win their second title – by margin – on Monday Night. Take the Warriors. |
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06-12-17 | Rangers v. Astros -111 | 6-1 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#960). Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-10-17 | White Sox v. Indians -1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#972) on the Run Line (-1.5) My clients and I cashed a winner with the Indians on the Run Line last night. Much of the rationale behind that wager is still very much in play today. Let me start with an extended excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers adjusted slightly to reflect current realities. “To say that the Chicago White Sox are playing lousy baseball right now is something of an understatement. The closed out their last homestand with back-2-back losses to the Red Sox by a combined 17-8 margin. On their current road trip, they’ve gone 1-6, outscored 51-23 in the process. Chicago probably overachieved early, with a very suspect lineup, a weak back of the rotation and a bullpen that has notched an AL low nine saves for the season. Chicago is a ‘bet-against’ team right now, plain and simple. “The Indians rank #26 out of 30 MLB teams in profitability this year, down more than 12.5 units despite a record that’s above .500. But make no mistake about it – the Indians are primed to make a BIG run between now and the All Star Break. I like this spot for the Tribe tonight – they had a day off on Thursday following an ugly 1-4 road trip, including back to back ugly wipeouts in Colorado in their last two contests. Returning home to face a weak division rival is EXACTLY what Cleveland needs right now.” There’s urgency in Cleveland right now following their sluggish start. Here are two quotes following last night’s game that stand out to this bettor. Manager Terry Francona: “Normally a team steps up and separates from the pack. We need for that to be us. At some point, we need to pick up the pace." Pitcher Corey Kluber: “It's no secret we haven't played the way we want to. Maybe we can use tonight as the starting point for us playing better. It's not a bad thing to be reminded that when we play the right way, we get rewarded." Indians starter Josh Tomlin is coming off two of his best starts of the season in his last two outings, throwing 16.1 innings of four run ball. Tomlin has been eating up innings, lasting at least seven innings four times in his last six trips to the hill. Behind him, the Indians bullpen is as good as any in baseball. Meanwhile, White Sox have David Holmberg on the hill; a guy who hasn’t made it past the fourth inning of either previous start this season. Expect another blowout! Take the Indians on the Run Line. |
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06-09-17 | Warriors -6 v. Cavs | 116-137 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Golden State (#707) The Cavs fought the good fight in Game 3, and led by six with three minutes remaining before Golden State closed out the game on an 11-0 run to get the win and cover. Kevin Durant’s pull up three pointer with 45 seconds left was a real ‘groin kick’ for a Cavs team that thought they had played well enough to win and get back into the series. Now it’s a 3-0 deficit, a deficit that no team in NBA history has ever overcome. And the Cavs know it. These are not ‘bet-on’ quotes from the Cavs by any stretch of the imagination. LeBron, following the Game 3 loss: ““Obviously, it’s physically and emotionally draining because I give everything to the game and want to put myself and my teammates in a position to be successful. I lay it all on the floor, and I did that tonight, gave everything that I had, both mentally and physically.” Here’s one from Kyrie Irving: “It hurts. Came came down to the stretch, and they made some big time plays. KD comes down, hits a big three, puts them up one. … I’m human, as well as my teammates, and to lay it all on the line like that, you want to come out on the winning side.” And one more from LeBron, talking about facing the NBA’s best team: “I think it's just part of my calling to just go against teams in the midst of a dynasty. This has been the best team in our league the last three years. They won a championship, and last year it was the greatest regular-season team we had played, probably one of the best postseason teams that everybody's ever seen as well, but we were just able to overcome that. And they're playing like one of the best teams once again." I think the Cavs are going to have a hard time mustering the same level of energy tonight that they’ve had in each of the last two games, given Wednesday’s gut punch and the short turnaround time between Games 3 & 4. I’m confident that at some point in this game, the Warriors are going to go on one of their patented big runs, and I’m not convinced in the slightest that the Cavs will find the mettle to dig deep and fight back in a hopeless situation. The Warriors still haven’t played a true ‘A’ level game here in the Finals. They missed layups in bunches in Game 1, committed 20 turnovers in Game 2 and trailed for most of the second half in Game 3. Steve Kerr: “(Game 3) wasn’t our smartest game that we have played all year…” But make no mistake about it, we’re witnessing history, one of the truly elite NBA teams of all time, in a closeout spot after blowing a 3-1 Finals lead to this same team last year. I’m not expecting the Warriors to step off the gas, even for a moment, just as they did in Game 4 blowout wins at Portland (128-103), at Utah (121-95) and at San Antonio (129-115) in the first three rounds of the postseason. A historical 16-0 playoff run means something to this team, and I expect them to close the series out with room to spare tonight. Take the Warriors. |
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06-09-17 | White Sox v. Indians -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#914) on the Run Line (-1.5) To say that the Chicago White Sox are playing lousy baseball right now is something of an understatement. The closed out their last homestand with back-2-back losses to the Red Sox by a combined 17-8 margin. On their current road trip, they’ve gone 1-5 against a pair of .500 level squads, outscored 44-20 in the process. Chicago probably overachieved early, with a very suspect lineup, a weak back of the rotation and a bullpen that has notched an AL low nine saves for the season. Chicago is a ‘bet-against’ team right now, plain and simple. Chicago starter Miguel Gonzalez has allowed five runs or more four times in his last five starts. He’s been particularly ineffective on the highway, 1-5 with a 5.74 ERA and a .316 batting average against. Current Indians are hitting .300 with a .962 OPS in 120 career at bats against Gonzalez. In his lone previous start against them this year, Gonzalez threw 101 pitches before getting pulled in the fifth inning, another ineffective effort. The Indians rank #28 out of 30 MLB teams in profitability this year, down more than 13.5 units despite a record that’s above .500. But make no mistake about it – the Indians are primed to make a BIG run between now and the All Star Break. I like this spot for the Tribe tonight – they had a day off yesterday following an ugly 1-4 road trip, including back to back ugly wipeouts in Colorado in their last two contests. Returning home to face a weak division rival is EXACTLY what Cleveland needs right now. And with Corey Kluber on the hill, I have no hesitation betting the Tribe on the Run Line, instead of laying -250 or higher. All seven Chicago losses during their current skid have come by multi-run margins, as have seven of the last eight Indians victories. Kluber came off the DL in his last start and threw six innings of scoreless, two hit, ten strikeout ball, vintage Kluber! In his lone previous start against the White Sox this year, Kluber threw a complete game three hit shutout. He faced them twice last year, allowing a grand total of two earned runs in the two games. Behind him, the Indians have one of MLB’s elite bullpens, fully rested and ready. Expect a blowout! Take the Indians on the Run Line. |
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06-08-17 | Twins v. Mariners -120 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle (#972) The betting markets have given us a remarkably cheap price to support the better, hotter team at home. It’s easy to understand why the markets have been fading Seattle in early betting action. Slugger Nelson Cruz is expected to sit tonight, and Jean Segura just went on the DL, leaving the Mariners without their two best bats tonight. And the betting markets certainly aren’t fans of Mariners starter Christian Bergman; a ‘fringe’ big league starter with some ugly long term numbers. Most of these factors that the betting markets are adjusting for are essentially non-factors for the purpose of tonight’s game. Seattle rallied back from a 5-2 deficit last night against the shoddy Twins bullpen despite not having Cruz or Segura in the lineup, even on a night where Robinson Cano went 0-4. A lineup that has pounded out 54 runs while going 6-1 on their current homestand isn’t likely to get cooled off by the struggling Kyle Gibson and the Twins ‘gas can’ bullpen behind him. Then there’s the Bergman factor. He crashed and burned in Colorado, unable to succeed in three seasons with the Rockies despite being given numerous opportunities. The Rockies finally gave up on him and he landed a minor league deal with the Mariners; not a pitcher who the markets respect one iota. Bergman’s full season numbers are mediocre at best, with a 4.36 ERA and an xFIP that’s more than a full run higher than that. Don’t be fooled by those aggregate stats! Bergman ‘took one for the team’ in DC against the Nationals, allowing ten earned runs in four innings on a day where their bullpen was completely spent. But in his four other starts this season, Bergman has allowed a grand total of five runs. That includes seven innings of shutout baseball against the Red Sox at Fenway as well as DOMINANT home efforts against the Rays and A’s in his last two starts on this field. Bergman sure sounds confident heading into tonight’s game. Here’s his quote talking about his edge against teams that haven’t seen him before: “I think that gives me an advantage. These days with all the (scouting) things, there's a little less than before. It's no secret anymore. You can watch on video, but until you see it live, it's a little different." And here’s Bergman’s quote, talking about how he loves pitching in the cooler climate of Seattle (gametime temperatures in the 50’s tonight): “This is a great place. I love the cold weather.” I’ll give the Twins credit for their hot start, but this is not a Minnesota squad primed to win road games at a 68% clip for the season the way they’ve done over the first two months of the campaign. As referenced above, their bullpen has been as bad as any in baseball over the last couple of weeks; particularly bad news with Kyle Gibson on the hill. Gibson has yet to finish the sixth inning in any of his nine previous starts this season. He doesn’t have a strikeout pitch and he has a propensity for allowing home runs; a bad combination. Big Mariners bats Robison Cano and Kyle Seager have both hit him well in previous outings against Gibson. No surprise here if the Mariners run away with this one, handing the Twins their first road sweep on the season. Big Ticket: Take the Mariners. |
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06-08-17 | Red Sox +108 v. Yankees | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#965) Teddy is heating up RIGHT NOW, riding a 67% All Sports Run over the past four days He’s locked & loaded with his Big Ticket MLB Game of the Week for Thursday! Don't miss out! David Price spent the first two months of the season on the DL following an elbow strain in spring training. His first start back in the big leagues was a little bit rusty, lasting only five innings against the White Sox. Last time out, Price threw a seven inning gem against the Orioles, allowing just three hits in the process. All the postgame quotes following that contest scream ‘bet-on’ for David Price moving forward. Price: "I felt good. Just trying to make better pitches. I don't want to be out there throwing 100 pitches or 90 pitches through five innings. I was back to being efficient, getting a lot of early outs and not giving up a whole lot of runs." Red Sox manager John Farrell: “He was outstanding. He was in complete control, and he got into a great rhythm.” Orioles manager Buck Showalter, after his team got dominated: “He’s one of those guys who’s adding pitches as he goes on in his career. He’s one of the best.” Michael Pineda has a value problem. His advanced metric stats are elite, ranked #7 among all MLB pitchers with an xFIP of 3.17 over the past three seasons. But his actual ERA is 4.47 during that span, largely due to one significant weakness – his propensity to allow home runs. Fly balls against Pineda have flown out of the park, leading to this ugly stat: of the 95 pitchers who have worked at least 300 innings since the start of 2015, Pineda ranks dead last in his rate of home runs allowed to fly balls allowed. The Yankees lineup is averaging more than a full run per game less against opposing lefties compared to righties. And if the Yankees can’t get to Price, they’ll have a hard time getting their lineup going against the Red Sox bullpen, anchored by a rested, ready and truly elite Craig Kimbrel, who has a ridiculous ratio of 53 strikeouts compared to eight hits allowed in 26.2 innings of work this season. Live dog here! Take the Red Sox. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 226.5 | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Golden State OVER (#705-706) I’m going to start this write-up with an extended excerpt from my Game 2 write-up supporting the Over, a ‘rocking chair’ winner on Sunday Night: “The pace was there for a high scoring affair in Game 1 of this series, but the offensive execution was not. Cavs not named ‘LeBron’ or ‘Kyrie’ combined to make a grand total of 11 shots in 48 minutes, as Cleveland shot under 35% from the floor for the game. Golden State took 106 shot attempts, but didn’t get to the free throw line or connect on a high percentage of three pointers while shooting only 42.5% for the game. The entire fourth quarter was, it the immortal words of legendary broadcaster Marv Albert, ‘garbage time’ where the pace slowed to a crawl as the Warriors lead ballooned, the end result being a game that stayed more than 20 points under the total. “Don’t expect ‘more of the same’ in Game 2. The Cavs certainly aren’t looking to slow things down, despite the Game 1 blowout loss. Kevin Love: “We naturally felt like we could have played better, taken the game to them a little bit more and also played with better pace. There were also times where we could have been smarter and made better decisions as far as fouling in the open court when they had an advantage.” “This isn’t two years ago, when Cleveland had no weapons following the Kyrie Irving injury, forcing a ‘slow it down’ pace in the Finals. It’s not last year either, when the Warriors superstars were all banged up and the Cavs were more comfortable playing grinders. This year’s Cleveland squad is predicated on offense, with LeBron and Kyrie penetrating to score or dish to open three point shooters over and over again.” Now, here’s the ‘pace’ quote from LeBron following their Game 2 loss at Golden State, a game in which the Warriors scored the most points in an NBA Finals Game since the showtime Lakers hung 141 o the Celtics in 1987. “That’s not our game. We don’t play slow-down basketball. We play at our pace, and we play our game. We’ve got to this point playing our way. We’ve won a lot of games playing the way we play. So, we’re not going to change.” Here’s the ‘pace’ quote from Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue, heading into Game 3. “I think taking good shots when we're playing with pace and not turning the basketball over, letting them get out in transition. So, that's our game. We're not going to change our game because of who we're playing. And I'm confident that we can play that way, and we did it last year. A lot of people said we couldn't. But that's our game. That's who we are. And we're not going to change just pause we're playing Golden State." Cleveland’s defense has been problematic all year, and that hasn’t changed against the offensively elite Warriors. They’ve allowed 118.98 points per 100 possessions in the first two games of this series. And the matchups that the Warriors have been able to exploit aren’t going to change. Lue has talked about going even smaller and quicker against the Warriors, talking about sitting center Tristan Thompson for extended stretches tonight: “It's not anything Tristan isn't doing. I just think that against this team you have to score the basketball." With JR Smith coming off two ‘no-show’ games, Deron Williams failing to make a shot in nine attempts in the finals thusfar and Channing Frye poised to get additional minutes, the Cavs role players are primed for a step up effort offensively here. And with the pace of this series averaging 11 more possessions than last year’s Finals matchup, tonight’s game has all the makings of another high scoring affair. Take the OVER. |
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06-07-17 | Cardinals -129 v. Reds | 4-6 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#903) I want a ‘character’ team like the St Louis Cardinals coming off a truly ugly beatdown; arguably the low point of their season. And I have no hesitation betting against the Reds following a record setting night; especially with Bronson Arroyo on the hill. Arroyo is a nice story, returning to the big leagues at age 40 following a two year absence. But frankly, Arroyo is not a pitcher to trust against this Cardinals lineup. In two starts against the Cards this season, Arroyo got bombed both times, allowing ten earned runs while failing to reach the fifth inning either time. His 6.24 ERA is backed by the advanced metric numbers – we’re talking about a guy with a FIP of 7.03 and a woeful 30% ground ball rate in a park that can be a house of horrors for hurlers who can’t generate ground ball outs. Scooter Gennett had a night for the ages on Tuesday, bashing four homers and driving in ten runs. Gennett has one extra base hit in 23 career at bats against Cards starter Lance Lynn, just one of many current Reds who have struggled against him. Lynn mowed down the Reds in his lone outing against them here in 2017, throwing six innings of one run ball. He’s pitched well at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, with a 3.32 ERA there dating back to the start of the 2014 campaign. The Cardinals are 0-5 on this road trip, 5-15 in their last 20 games, and below .500 after the first week of June for the first time in a decade. This is not a bottom feeder team, primed for extended skids, and this is an optimal bounce back spot. Manager Mike Matheny: “I think we're all tired of making excuses. We've just got to change what's going on, and we will.” Take the Cardinals. |
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06-06-17 | Phillies -101 v. Braves | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#953) The Phillies were as bad as any team in baseball throughout the month of May; a truly ugly stretch where they went 5-26 over a 31 game span. No team is going to be that bad all year, and the Phillies bats have suddenly found their stroke, pounding out 25 runs during their current three game winning streak. Philadelphia manager Pete Mackanin offers us this ‘bet-on’ quote: "We've swung the bats well for three games now. Hitting is contagious.” To put those 25 runs in the last three games in perspective, prior to this hot streak, the Phillies had put up 25 runs in their previous 13 games combined! All of a sudden, this bottom feeder has some legitimate momentum; a ‘bet-on’ squad in Atlanta tonight. While the Phillies are heating up right now, the Braves have gone cold, just 4-8 in their last dozen ballgames. There aren’t many teams with less of a homefield edge than Atlanta has at new Sun Trust Park. The Braves have the worst home ERA of any team in baseball. And, since their 4-0 weep against the hapless Padres at home to open the new park (and the new season), the Braves have won a grand total of SIX home games in the last eight weeks. They had the worst home record in the NL last year and they’re on pace do it again! Jamie Garcia is coming off three consecutive gems, shutting down the Angels, Giants and Nationals. Of course, the Braves went 1-2 I those three ‘gem’ starts, and Garcia is primed for regression, with a FIP and xFIP both more than a full run higher than his ERA. The Phillies have hit lefties fairly well this year and they’ve seen Garcia once already this year – he’s no mystery to them. Behind Garcia, Atlanta’s bullpen is a mess tonight after three consecutive short stints from Bartolo Colon, Julio Teheran and RA Dickey over the past three days. Aaron Nola was the Phillies first round pick in 2014 and he shot up through the minors as the team’s top pitching prospect. While he’s been inconsistent at the big league level, he’s done one thing very well – shut down the Braves. In five previous starts against Atlanta over the past two seasons, Nola is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA. The only guy who has hit him well – Freddie Freeman – is languishing on the DL. Other current Braves have just 9 hits in 49 at bats against him. Coming off a rough showing against the Marlines in his last outing, Nola is primed for a dominant bounceback effort here! Take the Phillies. |
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06-05-17 | Giants v. Brewers +111 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#906) When a starting pitching staff gets on a roll, the collective success of the unit bolsters the entire pitching staff. Starters egg each other on and pick each other up during a run like this, and the bullpen stays fresh, primed to protect late game leads in a way that they couldn’t if the starters weren’t excelling night after night. That’s exactly what’s going on in Milwaukee right now, where the Brewers starters have combined to go 5-1 in their last ten games with an ERA of 1.32 during that span. Manager Craig Counsell: “They are all in a very good place right now. It's a good feeling when we send a guy out there that's on top of his game. I feel these guys are on top of their game, and we're getting to see quality outings for sure." Junior Guerra is no ace, and his advanced metric numbers are mediocre at best --the betting markets don’t like him very much. The markets didn’t care for Guerra very much last year as a 31 year old rookie, yet the Brewers went 14-5 in his 19 starts, pretty darn impressive for a hurler with a team that finished 16 games under .500. This year, Guerra spent most of April and May on the DL. He returned to the rotation in late May, throwing well against the potent D-Backs lineup and following that up with six innings of shutout ball against the Mets; cashing as a +180 underdog. Even with Hunter Pence back for San Francisco, the slumping Giants (three runs or less in four of their last six) aren’t poised to hit Guerra hard and the bullpen behind him is rested and ready. The Giants bullpen behind Jeff Samardzija is anything BUT rested and ready following a rough Sunday in Philadelphia. San Fran certainly hasn’t been winning for Samardzija, just 4-7 in his eleven previous starts this season. The Giants – losers of nine of their last twelve overall -- just lost a series in Philadelphia to the last place Phillies, not exactly a squad clicking on all cylinders right now. Wrong team favored here! Take the Brewers. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Golden State OVER (#703-704) The pace was there for a high scoring affair in Game 1 of this series, but the offensive execution was not. Cavs not named ‘LeBron’ or ‘Kyrie’ combined to make a grand total of 11 shots in 48 minutes, as Cleveland shot under 35% from the floor for the game. Golden State took 106 shot attempts, but didn’t get to the free throw line or connect on a high percentage of three pointers while shooting only 42.5% for the game. The entire fourth quarter was, it the immortal words of legendary broadcaster Marv Albert, ‘garbage time’ where the pace slowed to a crawl as the Warriors lead ballooned, the end result being a game that stayed more than 20 points under the total. Don’t expect ‘more of the same’ in Game 2. We can expect this game to be more physical. 47 fouls got called in Game 1, leading to a combined 31 made free throws. This game should have ample point scoring opportunities with the shot clock off, as the refs try to keep things from getting too contentious! Klay Thompson: “I think the Cavs on Sunday will make a plan to not let [Durant] get so many easy buckets around the rim. I expect the Cavs to play a more physical game on Sunday to combat that.” Free throw attempts correlate STRONGLY with NBA totals – more attempts = higher scoring games. The Cavs certainly aren’t looking to slow things down, despite the Game 1 blowout loss. Kevin Love: “We naturally felt like we could have played better, taken the game to them a little bit more and also played with better pace. There were also times where we could have been smarter and made better decisions as far as fouling in the open court when they had an advantage.” This isn’t two years ago, when Cleveland had no weapons following the Kyrie Irving injury, forcing a ‘slow it down’ pace in the Finals. It’s not last year either, when the Warriors superstars were all banged up and the Cavs were more comfortable playing grinders. This year’s Cleveland squad is predicated on offense, with LeBron and Kyrie penetrating to score or dish to open three point shooters over and over again. The Cavs have averaged 118.3 points per 100 possessions here in the playoffs, #1 in the NBA. Golden State ranks #2 at 115.4 pp/100. This should be no surprise – both teams ranked in the Top 3 in offensive efficiency during the regular season as well. With the refs primed to blow some whistles, both teams looking to push the tempo and both squads extremely capable of lighting up the scoreboard, look for a Game 2 shootout that flies OVER the total. Take the Over. |
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06-04-17 | Twins -111 v. Angels | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#975) Jose Berrios led the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2015; a true ‘can’t miss’ type of prospect. Last year, he dominated at AAA but struggled mightily in his transition to the majors; only notching an 8.2% swinging strike rate while nibbling around the corners instead of challenging hitters with his best stuff. The end result was downright ugly: 14 starts, an 8.02 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP, with the Twins going 3-11 in those games. Berrios stuff wasn’t the problem. His ability to harness his nasty stuff effectively was. Well, that was last year. Berrios opened this season dominating AAA hitters again in April to the tune of a 1.13 ERA. His control problem appeared solved, walking only eight batters in 39.2 innings. And his pitch counts were way down, lasting six innings or more in every start but one. Then Berrios got called up to face four pretty potent lineups in his first four big league starts in 2017: the Indians, Rockies, Orioles and Astros. He’s allowed a grand total of eight runs in those four starts while lasting into the seventh inning three times and into the eighth twice. Minnesota manager Paul Molitor: “You've got to be excited about what we saw out of Jose. He knows he had to fight to get back up here, and he attacked their hitters and limited the damage." Last year, there was plenty of hype surrounding Berrios as he reached the big leagues, a highly touted prospect for years as he worked his way up through the Twins system. But bettors got burned repeatedly supporting him. The end result? There’s nowhere near the level of hype surrounding Minnesota’s potential ace here in 2017, which offers us a relatively cheap price to get involved supporting Berrios today. And with his newfound ability to last deeper into games, I worry much less about the state of the Minnesota bullpen than I do for other starters. The Angels lineup has been rather anemic since Mike Trout got hurt, but they’re coming off a seven run outburst in a winning effort last night, thanks to three big home runs, including a grand slam from Albert Pujols for his 600th career homer. I’m not expecting that type of offensive surge against Berrios today; nor should we expect a shutdown effort from Angels starter Ricky Nolasco. LA is 0-6 in Nolasco’s last six trips to the hill, and he’s been lit up for eleven earned runs in just 8.2 innings of work in his last two starts. Take the Twins. |
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06-03-17 | Rockies v. Padres -101 | 10-1 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Take San Diego (#910) The Padres are playing their best baseball of the year right now, winners of five straight games. Their lineup is clicking, pounding out five runs or more four times during this winning streak. Their bullpen has been effective of late – no opponent has scored more than five runs against San Diego in their last nine games. And today’s starter, Jhoulys Chacin, is ‘bet-on’ all the way when he pitches at Petco. Chacin has one of the sharper home/road dichotomies that you’ll ever see. In seven road starts, Chacin has a 10.27 ERA, allowing a whopping 35 earned runs in 30.2 innings of work. But within the pitcher friendly confines of Petco Field, Chacin has been nearly unhittable: four starts (27 innings of work) while allowing only two runs and 12 hits. The Padres are ten games Under .500 overall but they’ve been a money winning 5-5 in Chacin’s last ten trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Colorado is playing their WORST baseball of the season right now, losers of four of their last five and six of their last nine overall. Their bullpen has come back to earth following a red hot start to the season and their starting pitching has faltered as well. Tyler Chatwood has allowed five runs or more four times in his last seven trips to the hill, and he’s 0-2 against San Diego already this year, allowing nine earned runs (including four homers) in just 10.2 innings of work. Ride the hot & fade the cold! Take the Padres. |
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06-02-17 | Indians -107 v. Royals | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#973) Many of the better teams in MLB this season have developed a betting bandwagon. Houston has enjoyed tremendous support from bettors, as had Colorado, Arizona and the New York Yankees. But even at four games Over .500 right now, the Indians rank #25 out of 30 MLB in profitability this season, in large part because several of their starting pitchers carry a huge pricetag in the markets—every time one of those high priced starters go down, Indians bettors lose multiple units. Josh Tomlin is not one of those high priced starters, a guy with mediocre (at best) advanced metric stats – he doesn’t strike out many batters and he’s been vulnerable to home runs. But Tomlin has also thrown three absolute gems in his last five trips to the hill, including a pair of shutdown efforts against these same Royals: 16 innings of work, 1 run and only nine hits allowed. Behind Tomlin is an Indians lineup that is finally heating up; pounding out 33 runs in their last five games as the Tribe have gone 4-1. And Cleveland’s bullpen remains #1 in MLB in ERA, consistently shutting teams down late It’s been a disappointing season from the get-go for the Royals, and things haven’t changed much as the calendar turns to June. They just lost another series at home, this time to Detroit; a KC team that has notched only two winning series at Kaufmann Stadium all year! Jason Vargas’s unsustainably hot start hasn’t lasted, as expected, roughed up for 11 earned runs in just 1.2 innings of work over his last three starts. And the Royals bullpen behind him has eight blown saves and ten losses already; a far cry from the elite pens we’ve seen in KC in recent seasons. Take the Indians. |
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06-02-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Baltimore OVER (#967-968) It’s going to be a warm June night in Baltimore, setting the stage for a high scoring affair on a night where the ball should carry in this hitter friendly venue. The ball was certainly carrying last night as the two teams combined for five home runs in a game that snuck Over the total late thanks to a Red Sox rally against the Orioles bullpen. Baltimore’s lineup has finally woken up, pounding out 17 runs in their last two ballgames. That’s bad news for Rick Porcello; who has a lousy track record against this Orioles lineup. In his lone warm weather start on this field last year, Porcello got lit up in a 12-7 Slugfest, arguably the single worst showing of his Cy Young season. the likes of Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith and Manny Machado all have strong track records against Porcello. The Red Sox haven’t had a day off in their last ten and three of their last four starters didn’t get out of the sixth inning, leaving their bullpen somewhat ‘less than fresh’ this evening. The Red Sox lineup is clicking right now, pounding out 26 runs on the first four games of their road trip. They’ve gone Over the total by themselves four times in the last week and a half. Baltimore spot starter Alex Asher isn’t going to eat up innings and he’s coming off a truly ugly effort in his first start of the season, unable to get out of the third inning. Current Red Sox are hitting .308 against him with a .936 OPS, and they’ve already seen him once this year. And it’s surely worth noting that home plate ump Laz Diaz is 74-52 to the Over when calling balls and strikes over the past five seasons. Take the Over. |
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06-01-17 | Twins v. Angels -114 | 4-2 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Take the LA Angels (#914) As soon as Mike Trout got hurt, the betting markets made a HUGE adjustment on the pricetag for the LA Angels moving forward. In each of the three games since Trout got hurt LA has been priced near pick ‘em at home against a slumping, sub .500 Braves team that is dealing with the absence of their best hitter as well. When the markets zig, savvy bettors often zag, and there’s legitimate value to support LA in this deflated moneyline range. No surprise that LA has won their last two games without Trout, a streak I expect will continue this evening. The betting markets aren’t quite sure what to do with LA’s Alex Meyer; a 6-9 lefty with real promise…but not a ton of quality results…yet. Meyer has struggled to eat up innings and he missed his last turn in the rotation due to a minor back issue – it’s not hard to understand why the markets are reluctant to back him. But Meyer’s last two starts have been his best two starts, including a dominating three hit effort against the potent Tigers lineup. Minnesota is coming off a truly dismal homestand, losing five out of six to the Astros and Rays. Most importantly for the purposes of this matchup, the Twins bullpen can only be described as a disaster area right now, even after the team made a series of transactions last night, shuttling relievers between the big leagues and their AAA affiliate. Twins starter Adalberto Meija isn’t primed to eat up innings here. The rookie has reached the sixth inning only once in five starts. He failed to make it out of the third inning in his lone previous road start. Behind Meija is the real problem area. The Twins bullpen just allowed 28 runs in 7 innings over three games against the Astros, with basically every reliever they have getting bombed. A tight game late is not likely to work in the Twins favor this evening…… Take the Angels. |
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06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#701) Here’s what Cleveland has done with extra time to prepare this year, off three or more days of rest: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS. That includes double digit wins over Toronto and at Boston earlier in the playoffs. This is NOT a team that I worry about ‘rhythm’ in this type of situation, because their track record clearly shows a layoff is not an issue for the Cavs offensively – they’ve scored 116+ in their last three tries in this role. Here’s what Cleveland has done on the road in the postseason. They closed out last year with SU and ATS wins as an underdog in Games 5 and 7 at Golden State. This year, they are 7-0 SU, 7-0 ATS on the highway in the postseason, not a team that we worry about, ‘execution-wise’ in hostile environments. Golden State didn’t sniff a cover in Game 1 at home against Portland. They didn’t cover in Game 1 at home against Utah. They nearly lost SU at home in Game 1 to San Antonio, despite the Kawhi Leonard injury, lucky to win the game and never in position to cover the pointspread. It’s surely worth noting that a team who is 12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS in the postseason has seen all four of those ATS losses come in the ‘home favorite’ role. Yes ,the Warriors had the better stats in the regular season, particularly on the defensive end of the court. But the regular season ended six weeks ago. Here in the postseason, the Cavs rank #3 among the 16 playoff teams in field goal percentage allowed and #2 in points per shot attempt allowed, just slightly behind the Warriors. And considering how easy Golden State has had it this postseason – they faced the Spurs without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard, faced the Jazz without starting point guard George Hill and the Blazers without their lone big man Jusef Nurkic (until it was too late) – I’m taking their defensive numbers with a grain of salt against an offense of this caliber. Yes, the Warriors are elite. So are the defending champs! And this is a series in which I’m looking to take points, not lay them. Following a legitimately boring first three rounds of the postseason, look for Game 1 of the Finals to be an instant classic that comes right down to the final minute from a SU perspective. That makes taking the points with the Cavs a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Cavs. |
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05-31-17 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Chicago White Sox OVER (#971-972) The Red Sox lineup is finally heating up. Their 13 run outburst last night was the fourth time in nine games that Boston has gone Over the total by themselves; averaging more than seven runs per game during that span, despite the absence of big bat Dustin Pedrioia. The White Sox are hitting too. After an extended slump, the White Sox have pounded out 19 runs over the last three games on this homestand. They’re coming off a 14 hit effort last night, a lineup that’s seeing the ball clearly right now. Red Sox manager John Farrell talked about how Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago played ‘extremely small’ last night due to the warm weather and the wind blowing out. The wind won’t be as strong tonight but it’s still going to be a warm evening on the South Side. More Farrell, following last night’s game: “I think we've played two games over 60 degrees at home. I'm not going to pin it all on the weather, but I would hope as we get into some more consistent warmer weather, we're going to see more impact on the baseball (offensively). Hopefully tonight was an example of it." The White Sox bullpen is a legitimate disaster area tonight after Jose Quintana lasted only 2.2 innings last night on the heels of David Holmberg’s four inning showing on Monday. One of the most effective bullpen’s in the majors is primed for some regression here; bad news with Mike Pelfrey on the hill. Pelfrey’s junkballing ways aren’t likely to shut down the Red Sox lineup, and he doesn’t eat up innings (only one six inning start all year), leaving the door open for some bullpen shenanigans late. The White Sox rank #1 in the majors with an OPS of .829 against opposing lefties (as well as leading MLB in hits and runs), a team worthy of support against southpaw starters. Drew Pomeranz, like Pelfrey, has been unable to eat innings, lasting into the fifth only once in his last four trips to the hill. This ain’t no pitcher’s duel! Take the Over. |
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05-30-17 | Rays v. Rangers OVER 10 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay – Texas OVER (#917-918) So far this season, Global Life Park in Arlington has been below average in ESPN’s ‘Park Factor’; favoring pitchers in early season play. That’s not going to last as the weather heats up – this ballpark was the 6th friendliest for hitters last year, ranked #5 in 2015 and #7 in 2014. And we saw real signs of that last night, with these two teams combining to score 18 runs on 26 hits (11 for extra bases) while burning through nine different relief pitchers. Expect more of the same tonight! The Rangers just got slugger Adrian Beltre off the DL yesterday, plugged immediately back into the cleanup spot. The end result? An eight run outburst, their highest scoring game in the last ten days; in a game that flew Over the total with ample room to spare. The Rangers lineup was pretty darn potent on their last homestand as well, scoring 8, 9, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5 and 4 runs while closing out the homestand with four Overs in their final five games. Betting the Rangers over the total at home sure looks like a money winning strategy right now to this bettor! Tampa’s scoring gets deflated at home – the Trop has ranked as a ‘below MLB average’ hitters venue in each of the last three seasons; a field that hasn’t seen an above average hitters ranking since 2006! No surprise, then, that the Rays bats have produced runs in bunches AWAY from home of late, after closing out their last homestand by scoring only 13 runs in their final five games. The Rays proceeded to score 16 runs in three games at Minnesota, then ten in the series opener here last night, on the heels of a 6-0 run to the Over on their previous road trip, pounding out 39 runs in the process. Betting the Rays Over the total on the highway is a positive expectation strategy right now. Rays starter Matt Andriese is a fly ball pitcher coming off a 112 pitch effort in his last start. Current Rangers have hit .302 against him and in three previous career starts against Texas, Andriese has a 6.28 ERA. Rangers starter Nick Martinez has only one quality start in his last five tries while striking out only 13 batters during that entire span. Both bullpens got used extensively last night, leaving the door wide open for another late inning outburst this evening. And home plate ump Jerry Meals is an Over machine; 76-51 to Over when calling balls and strikes since the start of the 2013 campaign. Take the Over. |
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05-29-17 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 2-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Cincinnati – Toronto OVER (#977-978) I don’t trust Reds starter Lisalverto Bonilla to get many outs today. Bonilla certainly isn’t manager Bryan Price’s first choice to start a game, but with starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Homer Bailey and Amir Garrett all on the DL, it’s not like the Reds have a ton of good options for tonight’s game. Bonilla has bounced around numerous organizations since 2009. He got a couple of starts with the Rangers in 2014, and he’s had three here in Toronto this year; not the type of prospect who wows the scouts and gets chance after chance at the big league level. Bonilla’s biggest problems have been the gopher ball and control issues, a bad combination facing the suddenly resurgent Blue Jays lineup. Behind Bonilla, the Reds bullpen is wearing down from overuse, just like last year – they’ve thrown more innings than any bullpen in baseball. Only one of Cinci’s last five starters has gotten a single out past the fifth inning. Even though that pen has been decent of late, it’s by no means a trustworthy unit. Toronto’s Marcus Stroman has been very hittable of late, perhaps showing some aftereffects from his extensive participation in the World Baseball Classic before spring training. He hasn’t gotten into the seventh inning in any of his last five starts, and the better hitting teams are finding his pitches quite hittable. Behind Stroman, the Jays pen, too, has been overworked, ranked #1 in the AL in innings pitched. Both lineups are a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Toronto just got big bats Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back off stints on the DL; primed for an offensive outburst today. Cincinnati’s hot hitting lineup has scored five runs or more nine times in their last dozen games while going 8-4 to the Over during that span. This game has a real ‘runs in bunches’ feel to it, primed to fly Over the total with room to spare. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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05-28-17 | Mets v. Pirates -109 | 7-2 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#914) The Mets aren’t exactly playing winning baseball these days, 4-11 in their last 15 days. Their lineup has cooled off, with key bats Yoenis Cespedes and David Wright still languishing on the DL. And the Mets bullpen has been a disaster area since closer Jeurys Familia went on the DL, one off the MLB lead with 12 bullpen losses with a 4.94 ERA that ranks #14 out of 15 NL teams. All of this is particularly bad news with Matt Harvey on the hill tonight. Harvey was a true ace who captured the betting public’s imagination during his remarkable run from 2012 to 2015, despite missing the entire 2014 campaign. But Harvey’s past reputation and his current results are worlds apart; offering bettors legitimate value betting against him tonight. The Mets are 1-6 in Harvey’s last seven starts, favored in five of the six losses – Harvey still carries an inflated pricetag to support! His 5.36 ERA is by far, the worst of his career, and his 6.05 FIP is more than 2 ½ runs higher than it was last year. Harvey’s strikeout rate is way down, his swinging strike percentage is way down, his walks are way up and his home runs allowed per fly ball rate is way up as well. Harvey doesn’t eat up innings at this stage, getting only two outs after the fifth inning in his last five starts combined. That leaves the door wide open for yet another New York bullpen meltdown should we need it. It’s taken some time for Tyler Glasnow to get settled in at the major league level. But a talented young hurler who has been ranked among the Top 50 prospects in the minors and a Top 3 prospect in Pittsburgh for every season between 2013 and 2016 has been showing real signs of progress, allowing only two earned runs in each of his last two starts. The Pirates have been winning behind him, 5-3 in his last eight starts, and the value is clearly there in the marketplace – four of those five wins came at an underdog price. And with the Pirates finally hitting -- pounding out 32 runs in their last five games – they’re worthy of support tonight! Take the Pirates. |
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05-27-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers -110 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#958) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner with the Dodgers last night, and I have no hesitation getting right back to the betting window supporting LA in a pick ‘em price range against the Cubs tonight. All of a sudden, the Dodgers are back on Chicago’s radar…and in their collective heads. Here’s the quote from Jake Arrieta following last night’s loss: “They've got a good team. They've got a good team pretty much every year…. Their bullpen has been tremendous. They've added some pieces, they've got a couple of young guys in the lineup and they're a good club year in and year out. They're a little bit better all around. They're a team we're going to have to compete against.” Coming off series against the Giants, Brewers and Reds, this is a legit step up in class for the road team, a team that has been feasting on the weak all year. I have no issues whatsoever supporting Brandon McCarthy in a pick em price range against John Lackey. With the exception of one gem at Colorado earlier this month, Lackey has been very hittable, with a 4.93 FIP that nearly mirrors his 4.82 ERA. Gopher balls have been a consistent problem for him, allowing multiple home runs in half of his starts. Meanwhile, the Cubs lineup has cooled off, producing only 18 runs in their last five ballgames, in sharp contrast to a Dodgers lineup that has pounded out six runs or more six times in their last nine contests. Brandon McCarthy threw four straight gems to open the season before a short stint on the DL. And, after getting roughed up in that first start back off the DL, McCarthy threw another gem last time out, worthy of support tonight! Take the Dodgers. |
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05-27-17 | Mariners v. Red Sox -1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 145 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Take the Boston Red Sox (#978) on the Run Line (-1.5) Seattle stinks right now, an easy team to fade with a ‘plus price’ return on the Run Line. The results don’t lie. The Mariners are 1-6 over the past week, held to a single run or less in all six losses, ice cold offensively. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight tries on the highway, unable to win games against quality foes back East. But more than any other factor, this Run Line bet against the Mariners is based on all of the injuries that their pitching staff has suffered. Seattle is trotting Rob Whalen out to the mound today because, quite simply, they have run out of options. Whalen started five games with Atlanta last year and they weren’t pretty, finishing with a 6.57 ERA in just 24.2 innings of work. This year, at AAA Tacoma, Whalen was winless in four tries before his callup, with an ERA above 4.00. Why Whalen today? Simple! Seattle’s starting pitching staff is all on the DL. Whalen will be the 12th different starter that the Mariners have been forced to use already – he’s not their first, second, third or even fourth choice for a mid-season callup. Manager Scott Servais: "We're not looking for him to throw seven shutout innings. I'll take it ... but keep us in the ballgame. Do what he does.” That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement, and the Mariners bullpen behind him is dicey on a good day, setting the stage for some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Boston’s rookie lefty Brian Johnson doesn’t look like a potential ace either, but Seattle isn’t hitting lefties at all this year. They’ve got a .213 batting average against southpaws while averaging more than a run and a half less per nine innings against opposing lefties. Boston has won five in a row, finally hitting, and their bullpen is in good shape tonight following a series of quality starts on this homestand. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line. |
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05-26-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers -130 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#912) Jake Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball in 2015, right through the All Star Break last year. But his ERA went up a full run in his 13 post-break starts in 2016, and he notched only one quality start in four postseason tries. After two solid starts to open the season this year, Arrieta has notched only two quality starts in his last seven tries. He’s not the same pitcher right now, plain and simple, off back-2-back 220+ inning seasons – his velocity is down, his ground ball rate is down and his home run rate has nearly QUADRUPLED since his Cy Young campaign two years ago. How good is Dodgers starter Alex Wood? Well, if you look at the advanced metric stats this season, he’s been better than Clayton Kershaw! Wood’s 1.88 ERA is backed up by a 2.39 xFIP, nothing fraudulent there. His strikeout rate is 10.9 K’s per nine innings, elite numbers, ranked in the Top 10 pitchers in baseball. And his 67.6% of ground balls ranks #1 in MLB – it’s not going to be easy for those Cubs power bats to get the ball in the air tonight. Expect a Chicago squad that has been feasting on the weak at home over the past week to struggle on the road against class tonight. Take the Dodgers. |
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