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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-30-16 | UC-Irvine +3.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 58-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Top Play Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #577 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Cal-Irvine Anteaters (+) @ Santa Clara Broncos @ 10 ET - This line has moved from as low as a 1 on Santa Clara all the way up to where even a few postings at 4 were popping up. In any event, this line move has opened up some great line value on UC-Irvine. The Anteaters are looking to move to 4-0 in this series and the Broncos are over-valued. Even though both teams are 3-4 on the season, Cal-Irvine has played the tougher overall schedule. Also, even though Anteaters are without star guard Luke Nelson, others have certainly picked up the slack in his absence. The injury to KJ Feagin of the Broncos might be the bigger story here anyway. He was a key for the Broncos coming into the season as the top point guard and off of a surprisingly strong freshman campaign. Though new coach Herb Sendek has an impressive resume and will do a great job at Santa Clara, it always takes time to get the right pieces in place and, right now, he's just trying to manage some improvement on a team that lost 20 games last season. UC-Irvine went 28-10 last season and, though they lost a lot of key contributors from last season's team, they did return a number of key reserves plus they are getting a boost with the newcomers that coach Russell Turner brought in. The big edge the Anteaters have here is in the paint and the Broncos are known for their struggles with interior defense and rebounding in recent years. That weakness will again be a glaring one in tonight's game as I expect Santa Clara to drop their 4th straight in this series. The Anteaters are 19-8 ATS in road games with a posted total in a range of 120 to 129.5 points. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS (and SU!) as a home fave of 3 points or less and that is where this line has settled out. 10* Top Play CAL-IRVINE |
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11-28-16 | Jazz v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
THE Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #510 Monday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:05 ET - This line has gone from a pick'em to a -2.5 with Utah and that is adding to the value here with home dog Minnesota. The Timberwolves will be ultra hungry tonight as they are off of a loss at Golden State Saturday and also have triple revenge against the division rival Jazz as they lost each of the final 3 meetings last season. Minny is happy to be back home where they have been a much tougher team. Though the T-wolves are only 3-4 at home, all 3 wins came by at least a 24 point margin while 3 of their 4 home losses came by 7 points or less. Minnesota appears to be catching Utah at the right time to exact revenge. The Jazz are off of back to back win and covers but this has happened 3 times already this season and, every single time, Utah has lost their next game and failed to cover (an 0-3 SU and ATS mark this season in this situation). As you would expect with a young team, the Timberwolves tend to perform better when they are at home with the support of the home fans. As for the Jazz, they are playing with two days of rest here but sometimes rest can lead to rust and, in fact, Utah has failed to cover 20 of the last 32 times they have entered a game with 2 days of rest between games. The home team has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams and those 3 home wins each came by at least 13 points. Look for "home cooking" to once again be the key in this one and I'll gladly fade the early line move here. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES |
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11-27-16 | San Jose State v. Washington State -8.5 | Top | 88-76 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #726 Sunday - 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) vs San Jose State Spartans - Both of these clubs are projected to finish at the bottom of their respective conferences but that's where the key difference is in this match-up. Washington State plays in the tough PAC-12 while San Jose State is at the bottom of the Mountain West. The Cougars have a distinct size edge in this match-up and the last time these teams met, two years ago, Washington State rolled by 29 points. This one is unlikely to be quite that easy but I certainly expect the Cougars to get this by double digits and the line has dropped from a 10.5 to an 8.5 which is offering us even more line value with the big home fave here. Washington State will be fired up off of a loss as they had held 3 of their first 4 opponents to 39% or less from the field. Also, the Cougars have shot the ball very well on the other end of the floor with a 49.2% mark so far this season. The Spartans on the other hand have been held under 44% from the field in each of their last three games while allowing at least 50% from the field in 3 straight games. This is a mismatch and, though the Cougars may again struggle in PAC12 games this season, this is another non-conference match-up where they can absolutely dominate. The Cougars are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and now this number has dropped even lower offering more value! San Jose State is on a 7-13 ATS run in non-conference games. 10* WASHINGTON STATE minus the big points Sunday evening |
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11-26-16 | Spurs v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Saturday - 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back for both teams, the Wizards actually had 3 full off days before knocking off Orlando yesterday. For the Spurs, it's been quite a different story as this will be their 4th game in 6 days. Look for fatigue to be a factor in this one. Also, even though the Spurs are on a winning streak, they had covered only 4 of their 11 November games prior to yesterday's win at cover at Boston. San Antonio had to rally back from an early deficit to get the 6-point road win over the Celtics and it will be interesting to see how much they have left in the tank after that "big push" yesterday to get the road win. The Spurs have lost SU and ATS in each of their past two visits to D.C. Also, the Wizards have gone 4-1 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and now this line has crept up even higher which is giving even more line value to the home team in this one. Washington has won 3 of its past 4 games and the Wizards last 6 losses have been by an average of just 7 points. They're in this one all the way and the points should be enough to get the all-important cover. 10* Top Play WASHINGTON WIZARDS plus the points early Saturday evening |
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11-26-16 | Texas-Arlington +2.5 v. Fordham | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Top Play Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Saturday - 10* Top Play UT-Arlington Mavericks (+) @ Fordham Rams @ 5 ET - This line has moved from UT-Arlington being the 2.5 point favorite to Fordham now being the 2.5 point choice. Of course this 5 point move has opened up phenomenal value on the Mavericks. UT-Arlington does not have the record that the Rams have so far on this young season but the Mavs have played the tougher schedule. Even though Fordham is from the Atlantic Ten and UT-Arlington is from the SunBelt, the Rams are expected to finish near the bottom of the A-10 as they lost their top two scorers from last season while the Mavericks are the clear choice for the #1 spot in the SBC as virtually everyone is back (including all 5 starters and key reserves) from last season's team. The Mavericks are on a 14-6 ATS run in non-conference game and are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they have been a road dog of 3 points or less. Fordham is on a 19-36 ATS run in November games. 10* Top Play UT-Arlington plus the points on Saturday in very early evening action |
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11-25-16 | Southern Illinois +16 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
BLACK FRIDAY Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Friday - 10* Top Play Southern Illinois Salukis (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 8 ET - Minnesota is off to a 5-0 start this season and I like the direction the Golden Gophers are headed. I already used them once this season (as a Free Pick) and cashed in easily. However, Minnesota seems to have an over-inflated pointspread here. This is not a good situational spot for them. The Golden Gophers are off of a hard-fought win over an SEC foe (Arkansas) and they have a tough ACC foe (Florida State) on deck followed by another SEC foe (Vanderbilt). With that said, the Salukis are not exactly commanding a lot of Minnesota's attention and I like what Southern Illinois is doing early this season. They did lose some key talent from last year's team but Rodriguez, Fletcher, and Vincent are all returning players and they have combined to give the Salukis solid backcourt play. The frontcourt was a big concern outside of the 6'7 senior forward O'Brien. However, not only is O'Brien off to a big start both with scoring and rebounding, the addition of junior college transfer Thik Bol has proven to be a huge addition to the frontcourt. Though he is "only" 6'8 he is a proven shot-blocking machine (102 blocks last year and averaged 4.9 blocks per game the prior season) and Bol has come in and averaged 9 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game so far this season. This means the Salukis are a little more "complete" than expected early this season and couple that with the fact that they have shot the ball very well (51.2%) early this season and I expect Southern Illinois to stay within single digits of Minnesota throughout this game. In games with a posted total in the 150 to 159.5 range, the Salukis are on a long-term 5-1 ATS run. The Golden Gophers are only 17-30 SU (and 19-28 ATS) in their last 47 games against teams with a winning record. Yes, the Big Ten is tougher than the Missouri Valley Conference but this line is simply "too much" as Barry Hinson is the reigning MVC Coach of the Year last year and has his team ready to compete and make up for a loss to Arkansas on the 14th that was the Salukis only ugly loss so far this season. They know this is a "big game" opportunity for them while the Golden Gophers simply aren't highly motivated here. That keeps this one much closer than many are expecting and yes I know Minny has been playing solid defense early this season but I expect them to be flat here. 10* Top Play SOUTHERN ILLINOIS Friday evening |
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11-23-16 | Old Dominion +16 v. Louisville | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #759 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) vs Louisville Cardinals @ in Battle 4 Atlantis @ Imperial Arena in Nassau, Bahamas @ 9:30 ET - Louisville is a top ten team in the nation and the Cardinals have absolutely dominated their first three games of the season. That really helps us here in terms of line value because this is not a good spot for the Cardinals to run up a big score. The Monarchs like to play a methodical style on offense and they rely on their "length" on defense and they also crash the boards well. As you can see from the low total posted on this game, not a lot of points are expected in this one and I look for Old Dominion to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. The Monarchs did suffer a pair of key losses (Trey Freeman and Aaron Bacote) from last season's team but they've got some solid newcomers in the mix for this season and have good size in both the frontcourt and backcourt. Keep in mind this was a 25-win team last season and Jeff Jones is a veteran coach (entered this season 427-326 in 24 years!) and he is now 72-39 at Old Dominion as he works into his 4th season there. Louisville, of course, is well-coached under Rick Pitino. However, this will be the first game they get forced into really having to score significant points in the half-court game because Old Dominion certainly is not going to let them run wild in transition. This is a key because the Cardinals lost their top three scorers from last season's team. The Cards are 0-4 ATS L4 against Conference USA opponents while the Monarchs are 3-0 ATS L3 as a neutral court dog of 12.5 to 15 points. That's a combined 7-0 ATS mark that favored Old Dominion based on the opening number on this game. Now that the spread has moved even higher, there is even more value with a team that truly is a "dangerous dog" in a situation like this. One final note on this, both teams have had significant time off since their most recent game but that favors the underdog as, if shots aren't falling due to the layoff and each team has some rust, it also helps to keep this game closer than the inflated number. 10* OLD DOMINION |
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11-18-16 | Suns +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday - 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Suns have lost three straight games and allowed 120 points or more in all three defeats. The Phoenix players, of course, are well aware of this and fully focused on bouncing back on Friday and they are in the right place at the right time. The Suns have actually won 8 of their last 11 visits to Indiana and they catch the Pacers off of a huge win over the defending NBA champion Cavaliers. The Pacers caught a break as LeBron James sat out the game for Cleveland for rest. Speaking of breaks, the Indiana strength of schedule has not been as strong as what the Suns have faced so far this season and that also is leading to line value in this spot for Phoenix. The Suns have shot at least 49.4% from the field in 3 straight road games. The Pacers had shot only 41.7% from the field in their 3 games prior to a strong effort against the Cavaliers. After that big win, look for Indiana to fall flat here in what is anticipated to be a high scoring game. Note that the Pacers are 0-7 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 or more. The Suns are 4-1 ATS this season after a loss by 10 points or more in their prior game. The road team responds in this one and catches the home team in a flat spot. 10* PHOENIX SUNS Friday |
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11-17-16 | Temple +4 v. Massachusetts | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Top Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #715 Thursday - 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - These are former Atlantic Ten rivals and though the players have changed the coaches can certainly remember the last time they met. Fran Dunphy is now in his 11th season as head coach at Temple and Derek Kellogg is entering his 9th season at Massachusetts. The Owls lost to the Minutemen in an A-10 Quarterfinals game in March of 2013 the last time these two coaches squared off. It is time for a little payback for Dunphy and his team comes in "fighting mad" off of their loss to New Hampshire on Monday. Certainly UMass comes into this game hungry as well since they are off of a loss to Ole Miss. However, as is typically the case with Massachusetts, they are all about the offense and still not getting the job done on the defensive end. The Owls allowed only 67.6 points per game last season and was good enough for 4th in the AAC last season. UMass allowed 75.8 points per game last season and that ranked them very near rock bottom in the Atlantic 10. This season the Minutemen have already allowed 83 points per game whereas the Owls got involved in a wild first game that did go to OT but in their 2nd game they held a good New Hampshire team (one of the best in America East) to only 57 points. Though 1-1 on the season (with one good offensive showing and one good defensive showing), Temple is expected to put it all together in this revenge spot. The Owls defense and their size advantage in the frontcourt (with more depth too) to be the difference maker in this one. After a game where Temple has allowed 60 points or less they've gone 21-6 straight-up and, after a game where they've scored 60 points or less, the Owls have gone 13-4 straight-up. That's a combined 34-10 angle in play here as they are actually getting a few points in this match-up since it's at UMass. The Minutemen are 6-12 SU (and 5-10 ATS) when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and, once again, their defense does them in at home tonight. 10* TEMPLE Thursday |
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11-16-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - Tough spot for the Cavaliers after surviving a "war" with the Raptors last night and hanging on for the four point win. Cleveland, now in a back to back situation, has to face a tough Pacers team that has always given them trouble in Indiana. Yes, the Pacers have an ugly ATS mark early this season but a lot of that has to do with Indy being 0-5 ATS on the road. At home, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 5-1 on the young season. They're catching Cleveland at a great time as the Cavaliers big three played some significant minutes last night with LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love all logging at least 34 minutes in yesterday's non-covering win over the Raptors. Cleveland not only made nearly 40% of their three pointers last night, the Cavs also made 31 of 50 (62%) of their shots from inside the arc. Even with all the hot shooting Cleveland barely got by the Raptors and that says a lot right here. Now, on the road and in a back to back spot, the hot shooting is unlikely to continue and the Cavs will be in a battle just to try and win (let alone cover!) this tough road match-up. The Pacers have covered each of the last four meetings between these teams in Indiana. Overall, Indy is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Cavs. The Cavaliers are on a 7-16 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Pacers are on a 22-12 ATS run in divisional games and will build off a confidence building effort against Orlando Monday where they held the Magic to just 69 points! It's always big to be welcoming the defending NBA champs to town and the Pacers want this game badly and are catching their division rivals at the perfect time - a tough scheduling spot for Cleveland. 10* Top Play INDIANA PACERS Wednesday |
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11-15-16 | Kansas +2.5 v. Duke | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #743 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) vs Duke Blue Devils in New York, NY @ 9:30 ET - The Jayhawks lost in OT on Friday in Hawaii as four players fouled out and they didn't play "Kansas D" in that game either. The Jayhawks allowed Indiana to connect on 48.4% of their three pointers and ended up losing the game by 4 points in the extra session. Kansas is going to respond in a HUGE way Tuesday night as coach Bill Self's Jayhawks had not lost a season opener in his 14 years with the team! They are fired up and ready to go here and what better opportunity for response than facing the #1 team in the nation? As usual, Duke is stacked this season but they faced a pair of weak foes to begin their season and now they will get truly tested tonight. The Blue Devils will be playing their 3rd game in 5 nights and they're facing a Jayhawks team that went 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) the past two seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Long-term Kansas has a record of 66-13 SU (and 48-24, 67% ATS!) when off of a game where they gave up 80 points or more. Keep in mind that as "stacked" as Duke is, the Blue Devils are without three highly-touted newcomers for tonight's game. Missing Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, and Marques Bolden was not a problem against the likes of Marist and Grand Canyon but the Jayhawks are an elite team. 10* Top Play KANSAS Tuesday |
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11-15-16 | Raptors +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Monday - 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers continue to be over-valued. Since a blowout win over the Knicks in their season opener, Cleveland has covered only once in their last eight games. They're facing a Raptors team with revenge on its mind as Toronto lost a tight one to the Cavs early this season plus got knocked out of last year's post-season by the eventual NBA champions. The Raptors loss to the Cavaliers was one of just two losses Toronto has on the season and it's no coincidence that those two games are the only two games in which the Raptors have shot under 44% from the field. Amazingly, the Cavaliers have been at the other end of the spectrum as they have been held under 42.5% from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. The Cavs have shot well from three point range and that is what has saved them. In their win at Toronto earlier this season the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors by 24 points from beyond the arc and yet they only won the game by 3 points. Toronto will get some payback tonight and, while the Cavaliers are playing for the 4th time in 6 nights, the Raptors have had two days off heading into this game. Toronto is 3-0 SU and ATS in road games this season while the Cavaliers are on an 0-5 ATS run in home games. Also, the Raptors are 4-0 ATS in games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game this season. That means we have combined systems of 12-0 ATS that are in favor of the road dog in this one. I'll take that any day of the week! 10* Top Play TORONTO RAPTORS Tuesday |
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11-13-16 | Nuggets +7 v. Blazers | Top | 105-112 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Nuggets, it also is a revenge spot for Denver and I expect a huge effort from them here. The Nuggets lost at home to the Trail Blazers by a bucket on October 29th and that ruined Denver's home opener. Now it is time for payback in this spot and I'll gladly take advantage of a line that opened up as low as a 4 but is now all the way up to a 7 on gameday morning. Portland is 6-4 on the season but they're average margin of victory in the 6 wins is only 5.3 points per game and only twice out of all ten games this season have the Blazers won by more than 6 points. The Nuggets are a big value in this price range because in their 9 games this season they only have 3 losses by more than 3 points. In other words, as you can see from the above, the likelihood is that Denver is "in this one" all the way especially given the revenge angle here too. The Nuggets have been strong on the road this season with a 5-1 ATS mark while Portland has struggled in games projected to be high scoring as they are 1-5 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 or greater. Overall, the Trail Blazers are only 1-4 ATS in home games. Even though this is a back to back for the Nuggets they have two straight off days coming up after tonight's game so they will definitely leave it all on the floor tonight as they go for revenge. Blazers playing for 4th time in 6 nights so they are not exactly at their freshest either. 10* DENVER NUGGETS Sunday |
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11-11-16 | Indiana v. Kansas -6 | Top | 103-99 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
ESPN Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #776 Friday - 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (-) vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 9:30 PM ET in Armed Forces Classic @ Joint Base in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii - The Hoosiers are ranked far too high in my opinion. Yes the Hoosiers are a very talented group but they didn't have a lot of time to jell together in the offseason and to try to create team chemistry as a group. Also, not having lone senior Collin Hartman for this game against Kansas certainly hurts IU. Including him with four key losses (Biefeldt, Ferrell, Williams, Zeisloft) from last season's team means the Hoosiers will be without 50.3 points and 18.8 rebounds per game for this season opener. Yes, there is a lot of talent that will be on the floor tonight for the Hoosiers but they're facing a stacked Kansas team that absolutely could win it all this season and, keep in mind, the Hoosiers allowed an average of 71.7 points per game last season with a positive point differential of only 5.7 points per game. The Jayhawks allowed only 67.6 points per game and they had a positive point differential of 13.7 points per game. Even though the Jayhawks lost a pair of top starters in Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden, Kansas returns three starters plus a pair of McDonalds All-Americans. One of those is Josh Jackson who, along with returnees Frank Mason and Devonte Graham gives the Jayhawks arguably the top trio of players in the nation once Jackson goes through the early season adjustment that is normal for a freshman at the collegiate level. Also, with 7 footer Udoka Azubuike joining 6'10 returnee Landen Lucas, Kansas should continue to dominate the boards (3rd in Big 12 for rebounding margin last year). The Jayhawks ranked in the top 5 in the nation last season for shooting percentage from the field overall and from 3-point land. Kansas has won the Big 12 regular-season championship 12 straight times and veteran coach Bill Self enters his 14th season with the Jayhawks. Svi Mykhailiuk could be a pleasant surprise as he is now in his 3rd season and could providing significantly bigger scoring off of the bench. Having Mason and Graham (strong defenders) back also helps in terms of the team defense and Kansas has a great shot at winning it all this season. Certainly I look for them to get their season off to a strong start as I feel Indiana is without question a Top 40 team but definitely not a Top 10 team. The Hoosiers are over-valued here until all their newcomers perhaps jell later in the season. Indiana is only 4-6 SU and ATS in tournament games. The Jayhawks are a stellar 15-3 SU (and 13-5 ATS!) in tournament games the past two seasons. Lay it! 10* KANSAS Friday |
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11-09-16 | Bulls +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Bulls have revenge on their minds here. They lost all 4 meetings with the Hawks last season. Chicago has lost each of it's last 3 visits to Atlanta and 6 of the last 7 meetings overall. How do they rectify the situation? The Bulls catching the Hawks at the right time is a big help and that is exactly what has happened here. Chicago is catching Atlanta off of a big revenging win at Cleveland last night. Not only is this a back to back spot for the Hawks but they also had to battle all night to get past the Cavaliers last night. That sets this situation up beautifully for a Bulls upset today as the Hawks will have trouble dealing with another quality opponent in the 2nd night of a back to back and with travel involved as the Hawks had to get back to Atlanta after last night's game. The Hawks held the Cavs Irving and Smith to a combined 13 of 40 from the field and Atlanta simply won't have much left in the tank after last night's solid defensive effort. From a situational standpoint, it just doesn't get much better than this. Grab the points. 10* CHICAGO Wednesday |
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11-08-16 | Wolves -4 v. Nets | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Top Blowout Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Both of these teams have injury issues at the point guard spot but it is a much worse situation for the Nets in comparison with the Timberwolves. Already without star PG Jeremy Lin, the Nets are likely to be without Greivis Vazquez (back-up PG) tonight as well. Minnesota at least has 2nd year man Tyus Jones to man the point along with rookie Kris Dunn. Though Randy Foye is expected to finally play his first game of the new season tonight, the Brooklyn shooting guard is unlikely to be in top rhythm in his very first game back. That said, Minny can focus on double-teaming Brooks Lopez down low and this effectively shuts down the Nets offense. Brooklyn has been held to 95 points or less in 2 of their last 3 games. The T-wolves, with Karl-Anthony Towns, will have the best player on the floor tonight and he and his Minnesota teammates are hungry to get back into the win column after back to back losses. On deck for the T-wolves is another non-conference match-up while the Nets have a big game on deck with the cross-town division rival Knicks. Brooklyn has the much better ATS mark in comparison with the Timberwolves early this season but that is helping to give line value to a Minny team that won both meetings with the Nets by a double digit margin last season. Teams can grow complacent when on a long homestand and Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS (and 2-18 SU!) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Timberwolves are 24-13 ATS in their last 37 meetings with the Nets and they add another W to that tonight as they bounce back after back to back losses. 10* MINNESOTA |
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06-19-16 | Cavs +5 v. Warriors | Top | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +5 @ Golden State @ 8 ET - The pressure has now all been shifted to the Warriors. After being down 3 games to 1 in this series, the Cavaliers have battled back to knot the series up at 3 and force a Game 7. It would be a monumental failure for Golden State to lose this series on their home floor after being up 3 game to 1. The problem this is creating for the Warriors is the last thing that a team needs is pressure when they already were not shooting the ball well. Believe it or not Golden State has now been held to 42.1% or less from the field in 4 straight games! Conversely, Cleveland is feeling the positive energy of having given themselves a chance in an "anything can happen" Game 7 and the Cavs are riding a wave of emotions that has seen them shoot the ball very well the last 4 games in this series. The Cavaliers have shot at least 46.9% from the field in 4 straight games including an incredible 51.9% or better in 3 of those 4 games. The absence of big man Andrew Bogut in the middle will continue to be an impact for the Warriors interior defense here in Game 7 as well. The fact we are getting 5 points with the team that has won three of the last four games in this series by a double digit margin is a tremendous value given the situational momentum and pressure factors here as well. Look for the Cavaliers to get the upset win here but if they do fall short I expect it to be an epic finish decided by just one possession as the Cavs get the cash either way to finish 9-4 ATS this season in games where they are an underdog! *10* CLEVELAND |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers -2 vs Golden State @ 9 PM ET - With this line now settling in at a -2 as of Wednesday evening, it is "go time" for me with the Cavaliers. Even though Draymond Green is expected back for the Warriors, the absence of Andrew Bogut is likely to prove to be more impacting than many expect. Even though Bogut hasn't played a lot of minutes in these finals, he has played key minutes where he has a been a force in the paint on the defensive end and he's also been big with some key boards underneath as well. Another key is that Green certainly has been known to get himself into foul trouble and now Bogut is not available to help balance that. The biggest key of all for this game is LeBron James and Company being fired up (which they are!) about the opportunity to have this Game 6 at home and to be able to force an "anything can happen" Game 7. The Cavaliers also want to atone for a poor game in Game 4 on their home floor after they were so dominant for the home fans in their big Game 3 win in Cleveland. Even though Golden State got that win in Game 4 in Cleveland it is important to note that the Warriors have shot 42.1% or worse from the field in THREE STRAIGHT games now. The only reason they won Game 4 was because of some hot three point shooting. That is unlikely to be repeated here as the Warriors have been held to 33.3% or less from beyond the arc in 3 of the last 4 games. James and the Cavs are so hungry I just don't see them being denied for a 2nd time on their home floor in this series. Keep in mind, the Cavs had won 8 straight playoff home games in this post-season before that Game 4 loss. They respond tonight by NOT disappointing the home fans in the proverbial must win situation. *10* CLEVELAND |
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06-13-16 | Cavs +6 v. Warriors | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +6 @ Golden State @ 9 ET - Not only is Draymond Green expected to be out (suspension) for the Warriors but the Cavs LeBron James is fired up. Those two factors, in my opinion, are not properly factored into this line and there is tremendous line value with the Cavaliers as a sizable dog in a "win or go home" game. Certainly Cleveland disappointed in Game 4 but they will make up for it in Game 5. The Cavs are 16-6 straight-up this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Warriors are only 8-8 ATS the past three seasons when off of an upset win as an underdog. The point is that the situational factors here favor the Cavaliers. Certainly Golden State is hoping to avoid a trip back to Cleveland but I see the hungriest Cavs team you've ever seen taking the floor tonight and I fully expect the outright win as they dominate the boards and get back to shutting down Stephen Curry like they were doing earlier in this series. The Warriors star had a breakout game in Game 4 but we've seen shooting slumps throughout this series for Curry and his teammates. That resumes tonight and Golden State will be in a dogfight tonight just to win this game...let alone get the cover. Grab the value with the points! *10* CLEVELAND |
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06-10-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (-) vs Golden State @ 9 ET - The "knee-jerk reaction" here would be to back the Warriors as they may be expected to bounce back off of an embarrassing loss. However, the reality is that Golden State simply has not played that well on the road in this post-season. With their ugly loss at Cleveland on Wednesday, the Warriors have now lost 5 of their 8 post-season road games. Additionally, they really didn't play that well in 2 of the 3 road wins they did get. Their 7 point wins at Portland (on May 9th, should have blasted them) and at Oklahoma City (on May 28th, were down most of game) truly did not indicate any type of road dominance. The most dominating road win that Golden State has had in this post-season was when they blew out the Rockets in Houston on April 24th and that dominance was put on display in the second half AFTER Stephen Curry got hurt just before half-time. The fact is that Curry is not playing that well in this series and the Warriors are likely to be in trouble again in Game 4 as the Cavaliers are now 8-0 at home in the post-season with an average margin of victory of 22 points per win. The Cavs are simply a different team at home and the hunger of LeBron James and Company was on full display in Game 3 and I expect to see a repeat of the aggressive style in Game 4. Certainly this game is likely to be much closer than the Game 3 win but, that said, there is still great value only having to lay a very small number here with the Cavs. Look for the Cavaliers to continue dominating the glass and look for the Warriors shooting struggles away from home (under 41.5% from the field in 3 straight games) to continue Friday. *10* CLEVELAND |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +7 @ Golden State @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors won Game 1 of the Finals Thursday by 15 points so I have a quick question for you. How big was Golden State's lead when only a minute and a half was left in the 3rd quarter? It's a trick question of course! The Warriors weren't even winning the game at that point. Cleveland led the game with 13.5 minutes to go. The fact is that credit certainly should go to the Warriors for the way they pulled away but the Cavaliers have now shaken off any remaining rust from the layoff after knocking off the Raptors and the Cavs will be ready in Game 2. I don't expect Cleveland to again shoot 38% from the field and certainly their rebounding edge is worth mentioning as I expect that to continue. The Cavaliers are the hungrier team but turned the ball over too much in Game One and certainly faded down the stretch which is certainly atypical of a team led by LeBron James. The Cavs will respond as they've done many times before in situations like this. Since the last time they faced Golden State in regular season action (January 18th) the Cavaliers had been held to 40% or less from the field only 7 times. Cleveland won their next game 6 of the 7 times. Of course we don't have to get a SU win here to get the cash but that factor has me raising this selection to a top play as the value is certainly there with the points. In Game One the Cavs were only getting 5.5 or 6 points but now, as of Friday night at least, the Cavs are getting 6.5 or 7 points. It's a lot of value for the betting markets to be giving to a hungry dog that "hung with" the Warriors for 3 full quarters before falling apart in the 4th quarter Thursday. I don't see a repeat of the collapse in Game Two and it would not surprise me to see the Cavs when this outright as Kyrie Irving responds off of a tough game. Grab the significant points here. *10* CLEVELAND +7 |
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06-02-16 | Cavs +6 v. Warriors | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +6 @ Golden State @ 9:05 ET Thursday - The Warriors snuck by the Thunder but it wasn't pretty. This is not the same Golden State that simply steamrolled opposition during the majority of the regular season. The Warriors have been tested both mentally and physically by having to come back from a 3-1 series deficit to knock off the Thunder. Certainly Golden State deserves credit for that but now they face a Cavaliers team that is healthier than ever with the Big Three of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love. Last year was so frustrating for Cleveland...thinking of what might have been. Now they finally get a chance (healthy!) to redeem themselves and they have a huge edge of being able to sit back and watch the Warriors having to throw everything they had at Oklahoma City just to get to this point while the Cavs were resting up and game planning for this opportunity. As result of this, I fully expect the Cavaliers to jump on the Warriors and hit them hard early in Game One. We get line value because of the Cavs being on the road and Golden State's home court edge certainly is not as dominant as it had looked. The Warriors at home had a few miracle covers, got upset by the Thunder in one game, and even barely got by the Blazers in GS when they closed out that series. Conversely, the Cavaliers are definitely playing their best basketball of the season. The Cavs are 12-2 SU in these playoffs and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 postseason games. LeBron and Company have been waiting for this opportunity for so long and don't forget that last season Kyrie Irving was only able to play in one game in these finals and Kevin Love missed all 6 games. LeBron James felt he had a lot on his shoulders in this series last year (to say the least) but now has his full supporting cast. The results should be a fantastic rematch and I expect the Cavs to "steal" game one but certainly am grabbing the points which offer exceptional value and that makes this one a Top Play for me. *10* Cleveland |
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05-30-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 @ Golden State @ 9 ET - There is no denying that the Thunder lost a heart-breaker in Game 6 on Saturday. They looked like the right side to have, no question about it, for all but the last few minutes of the game. If there is one team that has already shown multiple times this post-season that they could bounce back from a bad game without question, it is Oklahoma City. It would not surprise me to see the Thunder win this game outright at Golden State. The Warriors no longer have the same invincibility they had on their home floor before the post-season got underway. Additionally, the 7 point margin of victory for the Warriors in Game 6 helps lead to line value here because a turnover-plagued final few minutes of the game is what resulted in the Thunder giving that game away. It had no business being a 7 point final in favor of Golden State. The result of that though is additional line value here for Oklahoma City. Certainly it is highly unlikely that the Thunder are again going to get outscored 63 to 9 from three point land! That 54 point margin of difference from beyond the arc certainly played a large role in the outcome of the game as the Warriors made 21 of 44 three pointers while the Thunder made only 3 of 23. Oklahoma City has the resolve and the right match-up edges to beat the Warriors at Golden State. Even if they do fall short the last two OKC losses in this series have come by just single digits. Everyone has seen, throughout this postseason, that the Thunder are loaded with grit and determination. They now have lost back to back games to the Warriors and this is noteworthy because Oklahoma City has not lost three straight games in nearly SEVEN months! All the way back in early November is the only time this entire season that OKC has lost three straight games. If they do lose this one straight-up, I look for the Thunder to still get the cash but I absolutely expect them to play their toughest, strongest, grittiest game of the post-season and I look for them to dominate the boards and for the shooting stats from three point land to play out much differently in this one. Keep in mind, the Warriors had been held to 32% from beyond the arc in the past three games combined before the insane shooting night in Game 6. The Thunder are fired up after what happened on their home floor and they'll be regrouped and ready to win for the 6th time in 9 road games this postseason and, keep in mind, that's an impressive road stat when you consider that Golden State and San Antonio (OKC's prior series) were the two best home teams in the regular season! *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder -2 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -103 | 38 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -2 vs Golden State @ 9:05 ET Saturday - Amazingly the Thunder have not lost back to back games since early April. Oklahoma City put up a good fight at Golden State in Game 5 Thursday night but they fell just short. Now we catch the Thunder off of a loss which is a situation that has seen them go 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS dating back to early April. Oklahoma City won those 6 games by an incredible average margin of 24 points per victory! Included in this perfect run is a 28 point victory over Golden State in Game 3 of this series after dropping Game 2 on the road. I don't expect this game to necessarily be decided by such a blowout margin but I certainly like having Oklahoma City on their home floor laying only a bucket in a spot where they've dominated for many weeks. The Thunder have won 12 of their last 14 home games and the Warriors, once consider invincible, have lost 4 of their 6 road playoff games. Curry, Thompson, and Green combined to make only 5 of 19 three pointers in Game 5 and though that still managed to "cut it" on their home floor, that won't get the job done on the road in Game 6. The bad news for Warriors fans is that the Golden State shooting is unlikely to improve on the road. The Thunder play in a raucous arena where they control the tempo and their defensive stops really get the arena rocking. Oklahoma City has held Golden State to only 30% from three point land in the two games in OKC in this series so far. The Thunder had a huge rebounding edge in each of the two games played at Oklahoma City and Durant, Westbrook, and Roberson all had double digits in boards in Game 4 here. The Thunder have proven all along that they have the talent level and moxie to match up with the Warriors and OKC big man Adams, along with the defensive presence of Ibaka, continue to show the "grit" of the Thunder. With the hunger that all these players, led especially by Durant and Westbrook, have shown throughout these playoffs, I do not see these guys being denied on their home floor. Therefore, the short number here is truly a fantastic value and I look for the Thunder to advance to the NBA Finals as they once again "step up" on their home floor off of a loss. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-23-16 | Cavs -5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 @ Toronto @ 8:35 ET - After going 10-0 to open up the playoffs, the Cavaliers finally lost one on Saturday at Toronto. Of the Cavs most recent 9 wins, only 2 came by a single digit margin. With Cleveland 15-5 SU off of an upset loss as a favorite and 6-2 SU this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more, the Cavaliers can be expected to bounce back here. Certainly Toronto deserves credit for their fantastic performance in Game Three but you can bet (literally!) that the Cavaliers will make the appropriate adjustments. You can also bet that Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving aren't going to combine to again go 4 for 28 from the field like they did on Saturday! The Cavs still lead this series 2 games to 1 and the Cavaliers are 14-2 SU (and 10-6 ATS) the past three seasons combined when they are leading in a playoff series. The Cavs will make some changes to counter the production of the Raptors Bismack Biyombo who had a huge game on the board and on defense in Game 3. Toronto is 5-9 ATS this season (and 14-24 ATS the past three seasons) when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, this is still a Raptors teams that has gone 8-19 ATS in all playoff games the past three seasons combined. If this game was in Cleveland the Cavs would be favored by at least double what the spread is for this one. Take advantage of the line value of the Cavaliers being on the road in a bounce back spot. It is payback time for LeBron James and company Monday. *10* CLEVELAND |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 78 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +3 vs Golden State @ 8 ET Sunday - The long layoff between games two and three of this series is a huge benefit for the Thunder. The best thing for the Warriors after they blew out Oklahoma City in Game Two on Wednesday would have been to walk right back onto the court Friday and pick up right where they left off. Instead, based on a scheduling quirk, not only is the West off on Friday when you would have expected them to play next, they don't even play Saturday either. This a huge edge for the Thunder who have plenty of time to regroup and prepare to get back on track after Game Two got away from them. Oklahoma City was actually tied with the Warriors with about a minute and a half to go in the second quarter Wednesday when Golden State suddenly erupted. That big push right before half that opened up a solid Warriors lead of 7 points at the half changed the momentum of the game and the mindset of the Thunder who had battled so hard to stay with Golden State all the way in the first 23 minutes of the game just like they did in all 48 on Monday when they got that upset win over the Warriors. The Thunder now have had a full chance to regroup and are still happy they got the split in Golden State. Also, an angry Russell Westbrook (rough game two for him) is a focused Russell Westbrook and that means his "A game" will be brought to Game 3 on Sunday. Just like he did against the Spurs, Westbrook is capable of elevating his level of play and very nearly practically willing his team to victory. When the Warriors got blasted at San Antonio in the second round, they responded by winning the next game and gutting out the victory even though the game was at San Antonio. Now, they are in a "bounce back" mode again and they get this game on their home floor where the Thunder have won 10 of their last 12 games and the 2 losses came by a total of only 5 points. In the playoffs Golden State is only 2-2 on the road and they faced a Houston team wrought with team chemistry issues and a Trail Blazers team that only advanced because the Clippers lost both their star players (Paul and Griffin). The point is that the Warriors haven't exactly been "road warriors" in these playoffs and now they face a team with a ton of talent, a rebounding machine, and that plays with tons of heart and intensity especially when on their home floor. Look for the Thunder to even this up on Sunday night. Huge edge with the extra prep time for coach Billy Donovan and Company to regroup for this one. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-16-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 @ Golden State @ 9:05 ET - The Thunder continue to get very little credit for having dispatched of the Spurs. Remember that everyone was saying they couldn't wait to see San Antonio match-up with Golden State in the Western Conference Finals. The clamoring about the Spurs/Warriors impending series came even larger when SA annihilated OKC by 32 points in Game 1 of their 2nd round series. Of course now that the Thunder went on to win 4 of the last 5 games including each of the next two match-ups in San Antonio, everyone is just saying that the Spurs were old, coach Popovich has lost his abilities, etc. The point I am making is many just don't realize how good this OKC team is. The Thunder dominate the boards because they have big men like Adams and Kanter and Ibaka is a continued force defensively and on the glass. These are the guys you hear less about because, of course, Durant and Westbrook are the stars that get all the hype. The fact is that the Thunder are well coached (give Donovan some credit!) and are built well to give the Warriors some trouble in this series. The fact that one of Golden State's big men, Bogut, is likely to play tonight but is still trying to work his way back from an injury and Curry still may not be 100% combines to give even more value to the underdog Thunder here. The Warriors are certainly a phenomenal team but let's not forget that their first round opponent was a dysfunctional Rockets team filled with internal conflict and their 2nd round opponent was lucky to even be there. Why was Portland lucky? Because the injuries to the Clippers Griffin and Paul prevented what would have been a dandy of a 2nd round showdown between the Clips and the Warriors. The point is that Golden State hasn't really been tested yet but they're about to get tested fully by a full-tilt Thunder attack that has no fear of anyone. They are playing like a team that is possessed as they attack the boards and rotate well on defense, etc. I like hungry dogs and teams that feel like they are being given no respect. Everyone is already talking about how the NBA Finals will play out featuring the Cavs versus Warriors! The Thunder have heard and have plenty of motivation here...not that a shot at the NBA Finals isn't already motivation enough. An outright upset in Game One is what I expect but of course I am grabbing the available points. This is the game the Thunder could catch the Warriors a little overconfident. It is a fantastic situational play and that's why it gets my highest rating! *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat +4.5 @ Toronto @ 3:35 ET - This series has been so tight with many close games that, first off, there is simply inherent value in having the points in this match-up. However, there is certainly some other strong reasoning for grabbing Miami in this one. Toronto simply relies too heavily on their backcourt and the overall poor shooting from their star guards has certainly hurt the Raptors throughout this series. Toronto's reliance on their backcourt has become an even bigger issue with the injury to big man Jonas Valanciunas as his absence means even more of the scoring load falls on the Raptors guards. Toronto has a history that does not bode well for a huge Game 7 match-up like this whereas the Heat have proven time and time again that they are resilient with Dwyane Wade leading the way. Miami has won 3 straight series where the Heat were down 3-2 in each series. This is part of a long-term run for Miami that has seen them go 7-1 in elimination games. Simply put, the Heat have shown they can be at their best when they are feeling the "heat". This is certainly not the case for the Raptors who, with Friday's loss, are now 2-6 all-time in games where they have a chance to eliminate their opponent. Overall, Toronto is 6-17 ATS in all playoff games the past three seasons. Conversely, the Heat are now on a long-term 36-20 run in second round playoff games. Miami is also 11-2 SU in Sunday games this season while Toronto is 5-10 ATS. If the Raptors eke out the win here it is likely to be by a single possession or on a last second shot. But, truly, there is every reason to believe the Heat win this game outright and certainly the line value (in this fiercely contested series) is with having the handful of points. *10* MIAMI |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat -4 vs Toronto @ 8:05 ET - The Heat came back from 20 points down against the Raptors in Game 5 and that was on the road. Miami cut the Toronto lead from 20 all the way down to just 1 in the fourth quarter. That says a lot about this Heat team even though they ultimately fell short of the cover against the Raptors on Wednesday. Look for Miami to bounce back tonight on their home floor. Dwayne Wade was drafted all the way back in 2003 and only two times since then has an Eastern foe ever managed to win two games in Miami in a series. The Raptors already stole one in this series and I don't see them winning another one here. Toronto is an ugly 1-4 all-time in their series closeout opportunities away from home. The Heat are 7-1 the last 8 times they faced elimination and that includes already going 2-0 in that situation this season as they rallied from a 3-2 deficit to knock off the Hornets in round one of this post-season. The Raptors finally got big games from their key scorers in Game 5 but, overall, Toronto's highly regarded back-court has shot poorly in this series, and I look for the subpar shooting to resume now that the Raptors are back on the road for Game 6. Toronto is 0-6 all-time when leading in a playoff series including 1-5 ATS. Conversely, the Heat are on a long-term 27-18 SU and ATS run when trailing in a playoff series. The Heat have been playing excellent defense in this post-season and the small number on this game makes the home team well worth the investment as their 4 home wins in this post-season have come by an average margin of 21 points per game. *10* MIAMI |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +2 vs San Antonio @ 8:35 ET - All the talk in San Antonio was about how the Spurs would match up with the Warriors in the next series. Maybe the talk should have focused on how much Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker have aged! Of course the Spurs have new younger talent like LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard but there is only so much those guys can do. What the Spurs have quickly found out is that the overall talent and athleticism of the Thunder - including stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook - could prove to be too much. Having to head for Oklahoma City in Game 6 and facing elimination, some may expect the Spurs to rally the troops but, after blowing a 13 point lead in Game 5 on their home floor, it is evident who wants this series more. That said, I don't see the Thunder blowing the opportunity to close this series out on their home floor. History is certainly not on the Spurs side here because coach Gregg Popovich has a 2-10 record...you read that write...just 2 wins in 12 chances when on the road in the playoffs and facing elimination. Many of those came by double digits and nearly all of them came by at least 7 points. That said, to be getting OKC as a home dog here means even more value because many times the Spurs have fallen well short in a spot like this. Aldridge started this series in fantastic fashion but has now struggled for three straight games. Danny Green had a big game 5 but it would be tough to duplicate that shooting effort on the road. He only made 30% of his threes on the road in the regular season and big scoring efforts from him have been infrequent this season. The Spurs have covered only 5 of their last 14 road games and 2 of those covers came against Memphis and 1 against Minnesota. San Antonio just hasn't been up to par against the better teams in the league and the Thunder certainly are roaring like a freight train right now and I don't see the Spurs being able to successfully stop them in Oklahoma City given the hunger this team has put on full display in coming back from a 2-1 series deficit. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-11-16 | Blazers +13 v. Warriors | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers +13 @ Golden State @ 10:35 ET - The Trail Blazers have had the lead at half in each of the last 3 games and the average margin was 10 points in favor of Portland! Give the Warriors credit for coming back to win 2 of those 3 games. However, all 4 games in this series have been decided by 12 points or less and one of those two aforementioned wins came in OT as Stephen Curry put on a ridiculous performance in the extra stanza. Arguably one of the greatest OT performances of all time. Curry though is actually part of the key as to why I like this play so much. I don't see Portland going away without a fight in this series. The Trail Blazers have shown plenty of heart and grit and while they are certainly disappointed about the Game 4 loss in OT they also are professional players that know their season is over if they do not win tonight. That said, I look for the Blazers to give another huge effort tonight and even if Golden State still manages to get a big lead and is up by say 15 points as we get into the latter stages of this game, do you really think Curry is going to be on the floor? Of course not! The Warriors need to protect their star players (in particularly that star) and that means if they are up big late in this game they definitely need to be sitting guys. They will start looking ahead at facing either OKC or SA in the Western Conference finals and Golden State will certainly be more concerned with staying healthy for that match-up rather than worrying about whether or not they win this game by 15 points or just 10 points or even high single digits for the final margin. The point is that all of the above is IF the Warriors are up huge. I honestly would not be surprised, based on how Game 4 played out WITH Curry on the floor, if the Blazers are in this game all the way. This is their season on the line and they dominated the glass in Monday's game but just got a little sloppy with too many turnovers in the game. Even with that it was still a game decided in OT. Portland is 9-4 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Certainly Golden State has been a "covering machine" while the Trail Blazers have not but the Warriors certainly were fortunate in their Game 4 cover and that is helping to result in an inflated line here for Game 5. I'll gladly step in and take advantage of the big number as per the reasoning above. *10* PORTLAND |
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05-10-16 | Thunder +7 v. Spurs | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +7 @ San Antonio @ 8:00 ET - The Spurs are 43-2 SU at home and most of you have probably heard or are not surprised to hear that record as San Antonio's home dominance was well-documented this season. However, many of you might be surprised to know that the Spurs are only 6-10 ATS in their last 16 home games. Two of those ATS covers came at the expense of the Grizzlies in the first round. Memphis had a roster that was so depleted they honestly might have lost a series against the NCAA Champion Villanova Wildcats, let alone having to play the Spurs. By the way, the Spurs last 5 games against good teams (Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Toronto) saw San Antonio go just 1-4 ATS with 2 of the 4 losses being outright losses. I am not necessarily saying the Thunder win this game outright but it truly would not be a complete surprise. The original Big 3 of the Spurs: Parker, Ginobili, and especially Duncan are all showing their age. That said, are Leonard and Aldridge enough to get past Westbrook and Durant of the Thunder. I think this is going to be an epic battle the rest of the way and, in a game five that should be very tight, grabbing the big points is the way to go. Keep in mind, ever since that crazy first game where OKC got a wake-up call, the last 3 games have featured 2 Thunder wins and 1 Thunder loss by just four points. That game was decided on a late offensive rebound of a missed free throw for San Antonio. Had OKC grabbed that board, the Thunder would have had the ball with a chance to win or tie the game at the end of regulation. The whole point is that not a lot of margin separates these teams but the whole world is likely to be lining up on San Antonio in this one. True to form, I like to be a contrarian and it has served me well through the years. I'll grab the generous points as the Thunder know that, to advance, they still have to win a game in San Antonio. In other words, no let up here, no loss of emotional edge. The Thunder come out just as focused as the Spurs in this one. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-09-16 | Raptors v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs Toronto @ 8 ET - All the games in this series have been tight but this looks like the game where all that changes. The injury issue with Jonas Valanciunas of the Raptors is a big deal. Yes, I am well aware of the Hassan Whiteside injury for the Heat and the fact that Chris Bosh has been a long-term absence for Miami. However, Valanciunas is truly a key, integral part of the Toronto interior and his production is going to be difficult to replace if he's unable to play for any significant amount of time (and he's out for this series). Couple that with the fact that the Heat are looking to bounce back off of a rare home loss and you have the makings of a home rout in this Game 4 match-up that is absolutely key for Miami to win to get back into this series. Keep in mind that the Raptors were up by 13 points very early in the 3rd quarter when Valanciunas got hurt. That means the Heat essentially won the 2nd half (nearly all of that half) of the game by 9 points as they went on to lose the game by 4 points. The significance in that is that, at home and seeking revenge and facing the Raptors without Valanciunas (out for the series) perhaps the Heat win this one by 9 points in each half and get an 18 point win! Honestly that result would not surprise as, even though Whiteside is an important piece to the Heat, Valanciunas is even more important to the Raptors. Toronto's win at Miami Saturday resulted in their 1st ATS cover in their last 7 games. The Heat had covered 10 of their last 15 games before the game three defeat. The Raptors are 5-15 ATS in all playoff games the last three seasons and 0-3 ATS when leading in a playoff series. Toronto is also 14-23 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Heat went 11-6 ATS this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite and are also 11-5 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. *10* MIAMI |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 vs San Antonio @ 8:00 ET - The Spurs snuck out the Game 3 win but I don't see the Thunder losing two straight on their home floor. Westbrook had an awful shooting night Friday and I don't foresee that being repeated here. Straight up trends can be discussed here because this line is right around the pick'em range and the Thunder have gone 11-2 this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, when trailing in a playoff series the Thunder have gone 6-2 the past three seasons. One of the few roles that the Spurs have struggled in is that of the road favorite. They were somewhat fortunate to get the cover in Game 3 as Leonard got a huge offensive rebound for them off of a free throw miss. Otherwise the game likely would have ended with the Spurs losing on a last second three pointer or winning by no more than 2 points and many (including myself) had the +2.5 in that game with OKC. In this game 4 match-up the line is SA by 1.5 or 1 as of early gameday morning. Note that San Antonio was 7-13 SU and ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less before notching that Game 3 win as a small road fave. So they bucked a 65% play against situation in Game 3 but the Spurs are unlikely to win again in a similar situation considering the Thunder have more than just home revenge on their minds. OKC knows that if they lose tonight the series is essentially over because winning 3 straight (including 2 more times in SA) is highly unlikely. That means tonight is the true definition of a must win. Now I don't just blindly play "must win" situations and certainly have played against them often in the past but, in this case, knowing the Thunder lost the turnover battle and rebounding battle in Game 3 plus shot poorly and yet still only lost the game by 4 points...I am backing the home team tonight. Westbrook has made just 26 of 75 shots in this series. That's not going to continue at home in Game 4. He had a huge statement game at home in Game 5 against Dallas and that finished the Mavericks off. That was a big game and he'll step up again here and help lead the way to another critical home win as the Thunder get back into this series by evening it up tonight. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-06-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 vs San Antonio @ 9:35 ET - In typical "zig zag" fashion, this line opened up with Oklahoma City favored by a point and a half and the Thunder are now as high as a two and a half point dog in this one. Of course everyone saw the Spurs fall just short at home on Monday and so the whole world couldn't believe the odds makers had the "gall" to favor the Thunder in Game 3. As a result, tons of support flooded in on the Spurs as there is no way the Spurs could lose back to back games, right? In my humble opinion, you better believe they could. San Antonio had a great regular season particularly at home and they play great "system" basketball. However, the Spurs Big 3 of Ginobili, Parker, and Duncan certainly isn't what it once was. As a result, guys like Kahwi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge fill the most important roles now. However, is this really going to be enough to carry the Spurs through this series when guys like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are so determined for the Thunder. Oklahoma City is a confident group on their home floor and has had great success in recent home meetings against the Spurs. In fact, OKC is 6-2 SU and ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Spurs in Oklahoma City. As a road favorite of 3 points or less the past three seasons the Spurs are 7-13 SU and ATS! In road games this season with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 San Antonio has gone 3-8 ATS this season. The Thunder are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less the past three seasons. They are playing with the mentality of an "underdog edginess" against the Spurs while San Antonio has been calling for Golden State ever since they swept an injury-ravaged Memphis team and then dominated the Thunder in the first game of this series. What Game Two did, with the tight Thunder win, was totally change the emotions and motivation of this series and I'll gladly fade the line move in this one because, ladies and gentlemen, we have a series on our hands here. This is going to be an all out war and the Spurs lost their moxie with the Game Two loss. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-03-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat +4.5 @ Toronto @ 8:05 ET - On the one hand, the Raptors could be a little more relaxed now that they finally got out of the first round. On the other hand, this could be a big letdown spot for Toronto as they had so much emotion for their huge Game 7 with Indiana where the Raptors finally got over the frustration of recent playoff failures. I foresee the latter. While Toronto exhales a sigh of relief of finally getting a big Game 7 home win, the Heat will come into this game with their typical workmanlike mentality. Comparing the teams, Miami has been playing the much better defense and the Heat used this defense to create some blowout wins as their average margin of victory against Charlotte was 20 points! As for the Raptors, they barely snuck by Indiana. The 3 losses for Toronto came by an average margin of 15 points per game and 3 of the 4 wins came by only a single digit margin and that included the last two victories coming by 5 points or less. The Raptors concerns include the poor shooting of Kyle Lowry as his elbow injury is more of an issue then was previously expected. Also, Toronto is 0-3 in their last 3 Game One home games. Though the Raptors have won 5 of the last 6 regular season meetings with Miami, playoff basketball is a different "animal" and the Heat held Charlotte to 43% or less from the field in all 7 games. The Raptors allowed the Pacers to hit 45% or better from the field in each of the final four games in the series. That has a lot to do with Toronto's 0-4 ATS run and I expect a 5th straight loss for the Raptors at the betting window tonight. *10* MIAMI |
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05-02-16 | Thunder +8 v. Spurs | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +8 @ San Antonio @ 9:35 ET - After getting completely steamrolled by the Spurs in Game One, I expect a huge response from the Thunder in Game Two. San Antonio simply could not miss on Saturday as the Spurs were simply on fire from the floor. The game was decided by halftime and the Thunder are fully prepared to respond in Game Two. You can bet (literally) that the Spurs won't again shoot 61% from the floor and 60% from three point land. It was simply "one of those nights" and, not to take anything away from the Spurs, the Thunder are not that "bad" of a team. In fact, when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more, Oklahoma City has gone 4-1 SU this season. After allowing 105 points or more this season, the Thunder have gone 25-10 SU. Now, I am certainly not saying that I expect the Thunder to win this game outright as, let's not forget, the Spurs have gone an insane 43-1 at home this season. But, what I am saying is that I expect this game to be decided by no more than a couple buckets. It wasn't like the Thunder had a problem with rebounding or turning the ball over too much in Game One. Again, it was just "one of those nights" and Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka and company will be ready to respond big tonight. Getting off to a great start and keeping the wild San Antonio crowd from getting so raucous early will key what I expect to be a tight, back and forth game tonight. Coach Donovan is a great coach and he will make adjustments for Game Two. When leading in a playoff series the Spurs have gone 10-8 SU and 9-9 ATS the past three seasons combined. When trailing in a playoff series the Thunder have gone 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS the past three seasons. The Spurs are expected to ultimately prevail in this series but it's far from over yet and the Thunder should give one of their best efforts of the entire season tonight after the ridiculous way Game One played out. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-01-16 | Pacers +5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Indiana Pacers +6 @ Toronto @ 8:05 ET - Forget pointspreads for a minute...let's just talk about some straight-up numbers in this one. The Pacers have won 2 of the last 3 games. They won 2 of the 3 games in Indiana and one could also argue that they should have won 2 of the 3 games in Toronto. Remember the Pacers blew Game 5 here in Toronto as they had a big double digit lead going to the 4th quarter. Indiana showed their resolve and bounced back by getting the home win in Game 6 so that they could force this Game 7. The value that gives us here is that the Pacers have the momentum in the series, they have the confidence of knowing they can win at Toronto (won one here but should have won two), and they've got the psychological factor working in their favor too as the Raptors have such a negative stigma about failing in the playoffs including in Game Sevens on their home floor. Now, all of the above said, this should be simply a fantastic game where it would not surprise if Indiana is the team that ends up advancing. That said, in a series where home court has really proven to not be that big of a deal, if you're going to give me the team with the momentum, the better frame of mind (postseason failures in Toronto's mind), and you're going to give me a half dozen points too...I am going to jump all over that anytime! That is why this is a top play as I look for Paul George to come up huge once again for the Pacers. Indiana is now 8-5 ATS in first round playoff games while the Raptors are 4-12 ATS in first round playoff games the past three seasons. Toronto will be feeling the pressure just win this game...let alone get the cover. I look for a Pacers upset but will grab all the available points in this one. *10* INDIANAÂ |
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