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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-28-17 | St Bonaventure +3.5 v. Davidson | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Early ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Tuesday 10* Top Play St Bonaventure Bonnies (+) @ Davidson Wildcats @ 7 ET - St Bonaventure is having another strong season in the Atlantic 10 as they gear up for the conference tournament. Speaking of the A-10 Tourney, that was the last time the Bonnies met up with Davidson and it was a tough loss for St Bonaventure in the A-10 quarterfinals as they got into foul trouble and that was a catalyst for blowing a sizable lead in the eventual 4 point loss. Needless to say, this game has been circled on the Bonnies calendars ever since the schedule was released and St Bonaventure wants to build some momentum for the upcoming A-10 Tourney plus they want revenge for what happened in last year's conference tourney. In other words, this is a best of both worlds opportunity for St Bonaventure and they enter this game with confidence off of back to back wins. If you look at the Bonnies results in A-10 action this season they've taken care of business against the teams they're supposed to. The losses that St Bonaventure has in A-10 action came against top tier teams like Dayton, VCU, Richmond, and Rhode Island. Not a single A-10 defeat came against a team that currently has a winning record in conference action. That said, note that Davidson is only 7-9 in Atlantic 10 action and the Wildcats only have 1 win against an A-10 team that currently has a winning record in conference action. That said, should Davidson (only 7-5 at home this season) really be favored here? I don't think so and I feel we're getting exceptional line value given the revenge angle as well. The Bonnies are 4-1 (SU and ATS) as a road dog of 3 points or less and the Wildcats are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. More struggles for the Cats here against a solid foe. 10* ST BONAVENTURE plus the points early Tuesday evening |
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02-27-17 | West Virginia v. Baylor +1 | Top | 62-71 | Win | 102 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #518 Monday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - Big revenge spot for Baylor and a tough scheduling spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are off of a hard fought victory by a single point at TCU. That marked the 3rd straight road game in which West Virginia struggled with their shooting. Over their last 3 road games combined, the Mountaineers have only connected on 39% of their shots from the field. The only other time that West Virginia had a scheduling situation comparable to this one this season was when they had back to back road games at Oklahoma State and Texas Tech right around the New Year. However, they had more time off in between those games and Baylor is much stronger than the Red Raiders. That said, with only one day off between games, the fact that the Mountaineers did lose that game in Lubbock, and the fact that Bears fans will be going crazy for revenge in Waco tonight, this is going to be a tough atmosphere for the Mountaineers to get a win. Yes, I am aware of the ankle injury involving Baylor's point guard, but I am also aware that the Mountaineers destroyed the Bears in Huntington earlier this season when Baylor was undefeated and that burst the Bears bubble and knocked them off their #1 perch. Rest assured, they haven't forgotten this! Baylor has lost 3 straight games against WV since they knocked them out of the Big 12 tourney 2 years ago. However, 2 of those 3 defeats came at West Virginia. The Bears are 8-0 SU in home games with a posted total in the 135 to 139.5 range the past 3 seasons. The Mountaineers are 2-4 SU and ATS in road games with a total in that same range. Overall, West Virginia is only 4-6 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival and the Bears are 15-3 SU at home this season. 10* BAYLOR |
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02-25-17 | UCLA v. Arizona -1 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach CBB Game #670 Saturday 10* Top Play Arizona Wildcats (-) vs UCLA Bruins @ 8:15 ET - Many will be looking at UCLA here because this is a revenge game. However, this is under-estimating the value of the home floor for Arizona. The Wildcats have won 70 of their last 71 home games and there is another big edge here in terms of key personnel. When these teams met earlier this season, it was Allonzo Trier's first action of the season for the Wildcats after sitting out the first two months of the season. He'll be even stronger in this game as he has knocked down 8 of 11 threes in his last two games and averaged 23 points per game in those two games. This is in stark contrast to the UCLA situation. I know that Lonzo Ball was only wearing a walking boot for protective measures after the win at Arizona State. However, Ball definitely tweaked his ankle and is not 100% for this game. Against the Sun Devils he scored just 4 points in 33 minutes of action. That is very concerning for UCLA here as Ball had scored 24 points on 10 of 15 shooting in the first match-up with Arizona a month ago and yet the Bruins still lost the game by double digits! You can see where I am going with this! If Trier is likely to play better and Ball could struggle and plus now this match-up is on the Wildcats home floor, how can the Cats not win again by at least the same margin as they did in the first game? Exactly! My money is on the home team that was as high as a 3 point favorite yesterday and now has come down to a -1. Excellent line value with the small home fave. Even though UCLA is playing this game with home loss revenge, that is a situation that has seen the Bruins go just 1-5 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. Also, in road games with a posted total in the 160s, UCLA is also 1-5 ATS. Look for the Wildcats home dominance to continue in a key game Saturday night. 10* ARIZONA |
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02-25-17 | Hornets v. Kings +3 | Top | 99-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Saturday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 5:05 ET - The Hornets are in a horrible slump and have lost 12 of their last 13 games. The Kings are rejuvenated after the DeMarcus Cousins trade (won by double digits in first game after the All Star Break) and also have won and covered 4 straight home games. Sacramento should hold a big edge on the boards in this game as they have outrebounded 3 of their last 4 opponents by a solid margin while Charlotte has been outrebounded by a ridiculous 15 boards a game in their last 4 games. The Hornets are 0-4 ATS against Pacific Division foes this season and also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record! In other words, Charlotte doesn't take care of business when they should and that is also why they are an ugly 8-17 ATS when playing with revenge this season. The Kings are 15-10 SU and ATS this season when playing against teams with a losing record so they have proven they do take care of business when they should. With that said, there is tremendous line value here with the home dog. 10* SACRAMENTO |
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02-24-17 | Mavs +3 v. Wolves | Top | 84-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #855 Friday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - You have to be careful looking at full season numbers with teams. Dallas was garbage for much of this season but they were ravaged by injuries. They were playing better ball leading into the All Star break. As for Minnesota, they won 8 of their last 11 games in January but February turned into a disaster when they lost Zach LaVine early in the month to a season-ending injury. Losing your starting point guard is always tough and the Timberwolves were 2-6 in February before winning their final game before the All Star break, at Denver. The T-wolves defense has been struggling badly. They've allowed 49.4% from the field in their last 6 games. By comparison, the Mavericks (who won 11 of 16 before dropping their last 2 games before the break) have held 7 of their last 13 opponents to 45.9% or less from the field. With the #8 seed well within reach for both of these teams don't be surprised if there is great intensity for tonight's game and I like the Mavericks (healthier and playing the better overall basketball) to get the W tonight on the road. Dallas has won 8 of its last 9 meetings with Minnesota. Also, the Mavs come into this game on a 6-2 ATS run in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record this season. The Timberwolves are 9-18 ATS as a favorite this season and on an 11-28 ATS run when off of a divisional game. Also, when Minny is off of a win by 10 points or more (beat Denver by 13) they have gone 2-9 ATS this season and an ugly 5-18 ATS (2-21 SU!) the past 3 seasons combined. Road rout looks probable here. 10* DALLAS MAVERICKS |
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02-24-17 | Pennsylvania -5 v. Cornell | Top | 69-66 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #867 Friday 10* Top Play Pennsylvania Quakers (-) @ Cornell Big Red @ 7 ET - Quakers guard Ryan Betley just earned co-Big Five player of the week and co-Ivy League rookie of the week after he poured in a season-high 28 points in a win over Brown last week and also had a solid 12 point performance with three assists in the victory over Yale. The reason I mention him here is because he led Penn with 22 points in their win over Cornell earlier this season. Considering that Betley is only a freshman, he is improving dramatically as he gets more experience. The point is that he will be even tougher for the Big Red to stop the 2nd time around and should help lead the red-hot Quakers to another win. Penn comes into this game having won and covered 4 straight games while Cornell has been at the other end of the spectrum as they have lost 5 of their last 6. The only win the Big Red got during this stretch came against a bad Dartmouth team and the 5 Cornell losses came by an average margin of 11.6 points per defeat. Every single Big Red loss came by at least 7 points and that's why I have no qualms about laying this shorter number with Penn on the road in this one. Pennsylvania is hot and they've also gone 8-4 ATS the past 3 seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. They're both shooting well and defending well and the same can certainly not be said for the Big Red. Also, Cornell is 4-11 ATS the past 3 seasons when playing with road loss revenge and they are also 0-4 SU this season when seeking revenge from a road defeat. This is simply not a very good Big Red team this season and I look for the Quakers to continue their dominance in this series. 10* PENNSYLVANIA |
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02-23-17 | Rockets v. Pelicans +3.5 | Top | 129-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Thursday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - Houston is 40-18 on the season and New Orleans is 23-34 on the season. Something looked "funny" with the opening number on this game, didn't it? Of course now, as expected, the markets have already done some early "pounding" on the Rockets side and have driven this line up. In typical contrarian fashion (hence the title - Contrarian Crusher) I am stepping in on the other side of this one. Of course the big story in New Orleans is the DeMarcus Cousins acquisition. But there is much more than "just that" to like about the Pelicans in this match-up. They went 3-1 on their 4-game road trip right before the All Star break and this is one of just 3 home games they have scheduled in the entire month of February! That said, they certainly want to make it "count" and they did lose their most recent home game. Another key here is that the Pelicans have not lost back to back home games since prior to the mid-way point of December! New Orleans had gone 9-5 in their 14 home games since December 15th but then lost to Utah two weeks ago. That adds "fuel to the fire" for the Pelicans tonight and the Rockets are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Also, New Orleans is seeking revenge for a 22-point beating at Houston when these teams met in December. Prior to that, the last 4 games between these teams had been decided by a total of just 15 points. With Cousins now in the mix, the Pelicans are going to be tough for the Rockets to put away in this one. Look for the outright upset and if New Orleans does fall short it certainly should be by just a single possession. The Pelicans are 27-16 ATS the past 3 seasons against teams that average 106 points or more per game. Everyone will be lining up for the Rockets in this one and, from experience, I know what that usually results in...an upset! 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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02-22-17 | Minnesota v. Maryland -3.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #732 Wednesday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 8:30 ET - Even though this is a revenge game for Minnesota, the Golden Gophers have gone 7-21 ATS in road games the past 3 seasons combined. Also, Minny is off of a fortunate OT win over Michigan Sunday. That victory was at home and even though the Gophers have a pair of road wins during their current 5-game winning streak, those victories came at Illinois and Rutgers! Prior to those two road wins, the Golden Gophers had lost 3 straight games away from home and had suffered 5 straight defeats overall. Now Minnesota has to face an angry Maryland team that will be fired up from the opening tip in this one. The Terrapins actually led the Badgers by 6 in Madison on Sunday but then allowed Wisconsin to go on a huge 2nd half run. This ended up leading to, not only a SU loss, an ATS loss for the Terps. Maryland is 12-3 at home this season and their only two Big Ten home losses came by a total of just 3 points. Maryland and Minnesota both play solid defense but the Terrapins are the better shooting team and the Terps have played a slightly tougher schedule thusfar. Also, Maryland is 10-3 ATS in Big Ten action this season and had covered 9 STRAIGHT games against teams with a winning record before Sunday's shocking loss. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Golden Gophers are 1-5 SU and ATS! Minny is shooting just 40% in road games this season while Maryland has knocked down 44% of it shots at home on the season. Look for the Terrapins, who have lost back to back games only once this entire season, to get right back into the win column here. 10* MARYLAND |
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02-21-17 | Clemson +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - I am calling this one an ESPN Smash Pass since it is on ESPNU Tuesday but it just as easily could have been called a Contrarian Crusher because I certainly am "going against the grain" here. When one looks at this game one can help but notice that Virginia Tech is 18-8 on the season and a respectable 7-7 in ACC action while Clemson is only 4-10 in conference action. Not only that, the Hokies are a fantastic 13-1 in home games and the Tigers are an ugly 3-6 in true road games this season. That said, how in the world did Virginia Tech open up as only a 2 point favorite here? Precisely! Give me Clemson! I love to fade the masses in games like this and I fully expect many will load up on the Hokies given the parameters I just outlined above. Why are the Tigers the play? For one thing Virginia Tech is off of a grueling 94-90 loss at Louisville Saturday where they lost despite shooting 59% from the field and 65% from three point land. To shoot that well and still lose says a lot about the Hokies! Another factor is the absence of Chris Clarke who recently was lost for the season. He led the team in rebounding and steals and was also one of the top players for assists and scoring! Among the starters, Clarke also led the team in FG %. His absence is a big one and Clemson could easily be coming into this game on a 7-1 run. In fact the Tigers are only 3-5 their last 8 games but 3 losses came by just 1 or 2 points and even the loss at Miami Saturday (by 6 points) was not decided until the final minute. Clemson is flying a bit "under the radar" right now as a result and I see them getting revenge for a 1 point home loss to Virginia Tech a month ago. In comparing these two teams the Tigers have played the tougher schedule this season. Additionally, the Hokies are 1-4 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 79 points or more. Virginia Tech is also an ugly 1-3 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 89 or more points this season. The Hokies just won't have enough left in the tank after that loss to the Cardinals and the avenging Tigers are the play here. 10* CLEMSON |
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02-19-17 | Michigan +1.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #861 Sunday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7 ET - Michigan is 3-6 on the road this season while Minnesota is 14-3 at home this season which explains why this is another contrarian play for me. As long-time followers know, I like to go "against the grain" more often than not and this is another one of those ideal situations to do it. Even though Minnesota has won 4 in a row, the wins came against teams that are a combined 18-39 in Big Ten action this season! Prior to that the Golden Gophers had lost 5 straight games. Minny has proven time and time again that they struggle to close out games against quality competition. The Golden Gophers comes into this game as one of the worst shooting teams in the Big Ten while the Wolverines are one of the top shooting teams in the conference. Michigan is off of a big win versus Wisconsin Thursday but I certainly don't expect a letdown here. Keep in mind the Wolverines recently got a win over in-state rival Michigan State and then there was no letdown as they won on the road at Indiana. Also, on deck for Michigan is a road game at Big Ten worst Rutgers so there is certainly no lookahead either. The Wolverines are shooting 48% from the field in Big Ten action and, on the season, Michigan has knocked down 38.4% of their three pointers. Defense has been the weakness of the Wolverines but, in this late season push, they've made a conscious effort to improve on that end of the floor and they've held 2 of their last 4 opponents under 40.5% from the field. Also, they've held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 21.1% or less from the field. Michigan is on a 6-2 ATS run and they've held the upper hand in recent meetings with the Golden Gophers. The Wolverines are 4-2 ATS this season when off of a Big 10 win. Minnesota is still just 16-36 SU in conference games the past 3 seasons combined. Look for their struggles in crunch time to continue again today as they do battle with a team they are knotted up with in the standings. The Golden Gophers have not handled pressure situations well this season. 10* MICHIGAN |
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02-18-17 | Wyoming +8.5 v. Boise State | Top | 87-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) @ Boise State Broncos @ 6 ET - This line has already moved from a +7.5 to a +8.5 and I understand the move as Boise State is off of a loss so many are expecting a bounce back here. However, the Broncos are now taking on a team they already beat this season and that was their 3rd straight victory over Wyoming. Coming off of a disappointing loss to a New Mexico team that is very close to them in the standings AND with a big game on deck at Nevada (another team close to Broncos in standings), Boise State is in a "sandwich spot" here. Off of a big game and with another big game on deck, the Broncos are likely to struggle to put away the Cowboys here. Boise State has been held under 42% from the field in 6 of its last 9 games. Their D has allowed 48% or more in each of their past two games. As for Wyoming, they've held 6 of their last 7 opponents under 42.5% from the field. Also, even on the road, the Cowboys have shot the ball well of late and have averaged 74.4 points per game in MWC road games! Wyoming simply doesn't give up and they'll battle hard here in hopes of getting revenge for a home loss to the Broncos last month. The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Wyoming is also 9-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. The Broncos are 0-3 ATS as a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points this season. Also, Boise State is 0-3 ATS this month and 0-5 ATS the L3 seasons combined when they are at home with a game total posted in a range of 150 o 154.5 points. That's a combined 0-11 ATS mark which I'll gladly test here as the Cowboys will prove to be the hungrier, more focused team in this match-up and they're catching a lot of points here. Only 3 times this entire season have the Cowboys lost a game by more than 10 points. They'll battle hard again here and I expect this one to be decided by only a single possession or two when the final horn has sounded. 10* WYOMING COWBOYS |
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02-16-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Rice -12.5 | Top | 68-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #730 Thursday 10* Top Play Rice Owls (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - This line has been dropping early this morning and it has opened up additional line value on Rice. The reason for the move is because the big points certainly caught the attention of the marketplace considering that UTSA has won 2 of their last 3 games and is on a 3-0-1 ATS run. However, the markets often have a short-term memory and UTSA was on a 4-game homestand that led to that run. This Roadrunners team is still 1-12 SU away from home this season and their 4 CUSA road losses have come by an average margin of 18.5 points per game. Every single CUSA road defeat for UTSA came by at least 15 points and the line on Rice has dropped from up near 15 down to near a 12 and this is simply great line value considering the fact that the Owls are rolling right now! Rice has won and covered 4 straight games and the last 3 have all been on the road! The Owls have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 40% or less from the field and UTSA is not known for shooting the ball well. In fact, the Roadrunners have been held under 40% from the field in 7 of their last 8 games. UTSA has averaged just 59 points per game in those 7 games and they now face an Owls team that has averaged 84 points per game (that does factor in removing OT from the equation) during their 4 game winning streak. The Owls are happy to be back home for a 4-game homestand that follows their perfect 3-game road trip and they only have UTEP on deck. That said, UTSA has their full attention and the Roadrunners just don't have the offensive skills to keep up with an Owls team that is averaging 82 points per game on the season. UTSA is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. Also, this season, the Roadrunners are 3-7 ATS on the road. The Owls are 3-0 SU and ATS when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. Rice also has taken care of business against lesser foes this season as the Owls are 11-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against teams with a losing record! 10* RICE OWLS |
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02-16-17 | Wizards v. Pacers +2.5 | Top | 111-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Thursday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - Most likely, no one will want Indiana here. The Pacers are in a back to back while the Wizards have had two days off heading into this one. Indiana is on a 5-game losing streak while Washington has been one of the hottest teams in the league for many weeks now. Of course you know what usually happens when everyone is going one way...it usually doesn't pan out too well. In typical contrarian fashion I am going with the Pacers here. However, it is certainly not without reason. For one thing, the Pacers got very bad shooting nights from George and Teague last night at Cleveland. Even with that, Indiana was in that game for 3 quarters before having a horrible 4th quarter. Also, the hunger of the Pacers is a key here as the last thing they want to do is go into the All Star break having lost 6 straight! Conversely, though they would say otherwise, the Wizards can't help but already be looking ahead to the break. They are very comfortable with where they're at now and likely are already "halfway in" to All Star break mode coming into this one because this will be just the 2nd game for Washington in 6 days. In fact it was last Friday that the Wizards knocked off the Pacers in Washington. Look for some revenge to be served in Indiana tonight. The Pacers will prove to be the hungrier team tonight and, keep in mind, they are 20-9 at home this season while the Wizards are 9-14 on the road this season. 10* INDIANA PACERS |
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02-15-17 | St. John's +10.5 v. Butler | Top | 86-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #563 Wednesday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 8:30 ET - This is a big revenge game for Butler but not only have they lost 3 of their last 4 (both SU and ATS), the Bulldogs simply are not a powerhouse. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that this was a team that was 18-3 on the season before this tough stretch creeped up on them, but just look at their point differentials. Butler's last 7 wins have come by an average margin of just 5.9 points per game. Only 3 of the Bulldogs 15 wins (dates all the way back to Thanksgiving) have come by a margin of more than 10 points. That said, the Red Storm are a formidable opponent that is continuing to get stronger as this season has gone on as they do rely on some key freshmen scoring power. LoVett and Ponds are both freshman and are the leading scorers for St John's and combine to average 35 points per game! As you would expect, these young stars have grown their game as the season has gone on and this makes the Red Storm and even more "upset ready" team than they were earlier in the season. St John's comes into this game having covered 5 straight games. They have 4 SU wins in their last 7 games and this is even though tonight's game will mark their 7th straight game as a dog. With each win, the confidence of this young team is growing and head coach Chris Mullins has this team buying into playing better team defense. Their last 3 games have included a pair where the Red Storm allowed 40% or less from the field even though those match-ups were against the solid offenses of Seton Hall and Marquette. Butler has been held to 41.1% or less from the field in 4 of their last 6 games and that included a home game versus Creighton and the Bluejays are not nearly the same without their star point guard. That said, the Bulldogs will be battling hard just to win this game let alone cover the inflated spread. Butler is 0-3 ATS against teams with a losing record this season while the Red Storm are a solid 11-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. 10* ST JOHN'S RED STORM |
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02-15-17 | Bucks v. Nets +5.5 | Top | 129-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Wednesday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:35 ET - Classic case of an ugly dog here. Yes, the Nets have a long losing streak going, both overall and at home, but Brooklyn should take care of business here. 11 of the 13 losses in their current losing streak have come by single digits. The Nets have been on the cusp of getting over the hump and, going "all out" in their final game before the All Star break is a given here. Brooklyn wants to put an end to the "nonsense" and they are catching the right team at the right time to do it! The Bucks come into this game off of a divisional win over Detroit. Surprisingly, Milwaukee held the Pistons to only 89 points but that was the first time since January 2nd that the Bucks have held a team under 100 points. Also, you have to go all the way back to December 16th to find a game where Milwaukee gave up less than 94 points. As you can see, Monday's win over Detroit was a rare gem for the Bucks and this is a team that is 1-10 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. Also, Milwaukee is an ugly 4-8 SU (and 3-9 ATS!) in road games where the posted total is 210 points or more. The Nets are undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the NBA and I won't try to convince you otherwise. But the fact remains that Brooklyn has been going very hard for weeks now and just hasn't been able to get into the win column. After so many close calls, they catch a Bucks team that is overconfident off of back to back divisional wins (big win at Indiana before knocking off Detroit) and that sets this up as a "dangerous game" for Milwaukee. The Bucks had lost 7 straight road games before notching wins at Phoenix and Indiana. Look for the upset here with a gritty, determined effort from the home dog here but grab the available points. 10* BROOKLYN NETS |
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02-14-17 | Tennessee +14 v. Kentucky | Top | 58-83 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #729 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - This is a big revenge game for the Wildcats but they are over-priced here. This is especially true when you consider how Kentucky has been playing and the fact that Tennessee has won 2 of the last 3 meetings and none of the 3 games were decided by more than 10 points. Kentucky is only 3-3 in their last 6 games and none of the 3 Wildcat wins were by more than 9 points. Kentucky has had trouble with holding big leads and, that said, even if the Cats are fortunate enough to get up big in this game they are unlikely to be able to maintain the lead. The Volunteers have also had trouble with holding big leads in recent games but of course they are a double digit dog here so that is less of a concern as is simply being competitive. That said, after Tennessee blew a big lead and lost to Georgia by a single point Saturday, there is no doubt about the hunger they will bring to this game. A key for the Vols in terms of the big points here is the fact that they have not lost a game by more than 13 points this entire season! Head coach Rick Barnes is really getting the best out of his players and this is not a team that is going to lay down for anyone. In other words, look for the Vols to be fighting hard throughout this game no matter what the score is. That certainly makes for a dangerous double digit dog. The Volunteers had covered 5 of their last 6 before the loss to the Bulldogs. The Wildcats, even with a rare cover in their win at Alabama Saturday, are on an ugly 2-8 ATS run. Even though Kentucky is playing this game with road loss revenge for the loss at Tennessee last month, the fact is that the Wildcats are 0-4 ATS this season when looking to avenge a road defeat. The Vols are a solid 8-3 ATS as an underdog this season and I look for another solid cover here. 10* Top Play TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS |
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02-13-17 | West Virginia +5 v. Kansas | Top | 80-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #539 Monday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (+) @ Kansas Jayhawks @ 9 ET - First lines that came out on this game yesterday had it at a -2.5 and sure enough the markets got "baited" and jumped all over the revenge-seeking Jayhawks at home and drove the line all the way up to a -5. I'll gladly take advantage of the value on the other side. Even though Kansas is at home and playing with revenge they certainly have some "issues" right now. First off the Jayhawks just aren't playing all that well as, even though they are 4-2 in their last 6 games, the 4 wins have come by an average margin of only 3.75 points while the losses included a 16-point blowout defeat at West Virginia. Perhaps the even bigger issue for Kansas here is the fact that, even though each team is in the same scheduling situation (one day of rest) the short amount of time off is likely to be more impacting to the Jayhawks. Their star player, Frank Mason is dealing with an illness and that was evident on Saturday as he struggled in the game and eventually fouled out. Against the relentless pressure defense of the Mountaineers, Kansas will find knocking off West Virginia much tougher than the Red Raiders. The Jayhawks only beat Texas Tech by a single point and have now failed to cover 12 of their last 17. Kansas has a great SU record at home but note that they are just 2-8 ATS at home this season! The Mountaineers only have 5 losses on the season and 4 of the 5 came by 4 points or less. This is likely to be war because even though the Jayhawks have revenge, the Mountaineers also are sick of looking up in the standings at Kansas and West Virginia also was knocked out of the Big 12 conference tourney by the Jayhawks last spring. Look for the Mountaineers pressure defense and the fact that Mason is not 100% to be the two key factors for a potential upset here. If West Virginia does fall short of the upset, I expect it to only be by a single bucket. A lot of points expected here and the Mountaineers are an incredible 27-12 ATS long-term in games with a posted total in the 150s. 10* Top Play WEST VIRGINIA |
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02-13-17 | Pistons +3 v. Bucks | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Many will likely be looking to Milwaukee today after the Pistons rallied late and got the upset win at Toronto yesterday. However, this is not a "normal" in-season situation here. The All Star break begins later this week and so players aren't "holding anything back" and, right now, Detroit has been playing much better ball than Milwaukee. Not only that, the Pistons suffered one of their worst home defeats of the season in late December when the Bucks defeated them by 25 points. The Pistons haven't forgotten that game as, of course, Milwaukee is a division rival. Now Detroit gets their shot at revenge and, even though it is a back to back, only one guy played more than 32 minutes for the Pistons yesterday. Also, Milwaukee is off of a big upset win too as they won at Indiana on Saturday. One of the key differences though is the Bucks recent wins have been "fortunate" ones where they simply shot the ball extremely well. Milwaukee's win over the Pacers saw them knock down 54.8% of their three pointers and that was just the 3rd win for the Bucks in their last 15 games. Conversely, Detroit was held to 43% from the field and 26% from three point land and yet still won at Toronto yesterday. The Pistons are winning the "hustle points" and are playing much better team basketball than the Bucks right now. Detroit is on a 6-2 ATS run and are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Conversely, Milwaukee is an ugly 1-5 ATS and SU in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. This is a classic case of "hot versus not" and "hungry versus complacent" and, even though it is a back to back for Detroit, they did play early yesterday and each of these teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Advantage to the road dog Pistons and I expect them to get their revenge here against the struggling Bucks. Talking about the "stronger level of play" angle above. The Bucks have been outshot by 40 shots over their last 8 games. The Pistons have outshot their opponents by 44 shots in their last 4 games. The road team is clearly getting more scoring opportunities while also allowing less. More of the same here. 10* DETROIT PISTONS |
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02-12-17 | Pelicans v. Kings -3 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #838 Sunday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings (-) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:05 ET - The Pelicans have the full attention of the Kings because New Orleans has given them trouble in recent meetings. Sacramento finally ended a Pelicans "run" in this series with a home win over New Orleans in their most recent meeting in November. The Kings won that game by 8 and, with this being Sacramento's last home game until after the All Star break, I fully expect huge effort from them here. Though both teams have played rather well their last couple games, I like the fact that the Kings have averaged 10 more field goal attempts per game than their opponent in their last 2 games. The Pelicans have been at the other end of the spectrum on that stat as they have given up an average of 9 more field goal attempts per game than what they've taken. Of course limiting the number of opportunities for your opponent while also maximizing your own is a key to success and the Kings come in strong and have won 3 of their last 4 games. Not only does Sacramento have the back to back wins, they also have had a win over Golden State in this four game stretch. The Pelicans, prior to their road win at Minnesota, had lost 5 straight road games. Overall, New Orleans had failed to cover 4 straight games before the win over the Timberwolves. Sacramento is 20-8 ATS long-term in their home games against New Orleans and the Kings have shot at least 47.5% from the field in 7 of their last 9 games. The Pelicans, before erupting at Minnesota, had been held under 46% from the field in 5 of their last 6 games. 10* Top Play SACRAMENTO KINGS minus the short number Sunday night |
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02-12-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -10 | Top | 66-59 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #856 Sunday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Northwestern Wildcats @ 6:30 ET - At first glance this line may appear a little high considering the fact that the Badgers have not been shooting well recently, the Wildcats are 18-6 on the season, and Wisconsin is laying double digits here. However, there are some key factors that are pointing to an absolute rout here. First off, Northwestern's leading scorer Scottie Lindsey is out for this game (mononucleosis) and this will be the 3rd straight game he's missed. Not only did the Wildcats lose their first two games without him, the results weren't even closed. They lost by 21 at Purdue as a 9.5 point dog and they lost to Illinois by 7 as a 6 point favorite. More struggles for the Cats can be expected today as the Badgers are happy to finally be back home. This is just their 2nd home game since January 24th so, over a span of 3 weeks Wisconsin has been away from home for nearly every game. They'll be fired up to make the most of this game at home and, keep in mind, much of their recent shooting woes can be attributed to being away from Madison. At home this season the Badgers are averaging 79 points per game this season and shooting 48% from the field including 38% from beyond the arc! Â Northwestern has struggled on both ends of the floor in these last two games without Lindsey and a trip to Madison isn't going to help matters for the Wildcats. The Badgers are 7-3 ATS at home this season and the Wildcats run at the betting windows is likely over. They were on a 15-3 ATS run before Lindsey went down. Look for them to now drop to 0-3 ATS without him. 10* WISCONSIN BADGERS minus the points Sunday evening |
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02-11-17 | Bucks +7 v. Pacers | Top | 116-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian pick all the way. The fact is that the Bucks have been struggling badly and Jabari Parker was just lost for the season and, even though Khris Middleton finally played in last night's game, he did not travel with the team to Indiana. All that said, this line opened up at "only" a 6 and that is a strange line considering the Pacers have the much better record and also are at home. Considering the home/road dichotomy of the way these two teams play home versus away you can see why the betting markets already pushed this to the 7 in early action. Nothing is ever as "easy" as it seems and my expectation is that this game tonight is absolutely going to turn into a divisional dogfight. Milwaukee simply got done in last night by the Lakers hitting a ridiculous 15 of 30 three pointers. The Bucks got down early and then rallied late but they'll be ready to bounce back after being outscored by 21 points from three point land (Lakers hit 7 more threes than Milwaukee) last night. Even though this is a back to back for the Bucks, it is also a back to back for the Pacers and they are the ones laying 7 points here even though they are 3-7 SU (and 2-8 ATS) this season in the 2nd game of a back to back! Even though this is part of 3 games in 4 days for the Bucks they previously had 3 full off days. As for the Pacers, they are playing their 6th game in 9 nights. Look for the Pacers to be a little weary in this one and they're missing Thaddeus Young (wrist) and have been playing a little soft in the middle. The Bucks are 6-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season and they'll push Indiana to the limit in this one. The Pacers are only 2-2 in the last 4 meetings between these clubs and the two Indiana victories each came by only 5 points. 10* Top Play MILWAUKEE BUCKS plus the points Saturday evening |
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02-11-17 | Green Bay v. Wright State -3 | Top | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #634 Saturday 10* Top Play Wright State Raiders (-) vs Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 7 ET - Wright State is at home where they are 10-3 on the season and they are hosting a Wisconsin-Green Bay team that is only 6-8 away from home this season. The Raiders come into this game off having shot the ball very well in 6 of their last 7 games. Wright State averaged 84.5 points per game in those 6 games and they now face a Phoenix team that rallied for a road cover at Northern Kentucky Thursday. The fact that UWGB got in the backdoor for the cover there is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. Don't be surprised if 3 point shooting plays a role in this one. UWGB has only made 30% of their threes on the road this season while Wright State shoots a hot 40% at home from beyond the arc. The biggest key of all to this play is the revenge factor. Not only did the Raiders lose at Green Bay in January, they also were knocked out of the Horizon League tourney by the Phoenix last March. UWGB shot surprisingly well from three point land in their home win over the Raiders in January and in the Horizon League tourney last March. However, in their last two visits to Wright State UWGB has been held to 25% or less from three point land in each game. Green Bay lost their most recent visit to Wright State and the Raiders have payback on their minds in a big way here. The Raiders are 7-3 SU and ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s this season. They are also 2-0 SU this season when playing with road loss revenge. UWGB has suffered the SU loss in 21 of their last 32 games as an underdog. That said, and with this spread only around a 3, I like the odds of the Raiders getting a solid, revenging home cover in this one. 10* Top Play WRIGHT STATE minus the short number Saturday evening |
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02-11-17 | Louisiana Tech -7.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
CUSA Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #585 Saturday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 4 ET - This one is set up perfectly. This is a huge revenge game for the Bulldogs as they suffered a rare home loss to UTSA last month. In that game they blew a huge lead. Louisiana Tech also comes into this one off of a game where they blew a big lead in a tight one-point win at UTEP Thursday. The Roadrunners are at the other end of the spectrum as they rallied from a 2nd half deficit to get a 6-point win versus Southern Mississippi Thursday. The Golden Eagles are one of the worst teams in CUSA but, the point is, even they "had them on the ropes" before ultimately falling short on Thursday. The other point is that there is some extra line value here as a result of those recent games. The fact is that, even on the road, the Bulldogs could have easily been installed as a double digit favorite and yet the line opened up at 8.5 and then dropped to 7.5 which is something I'll gladly take advantage of here. Louisiana Tech is fired up and they are hungry for revenge and the Bulldogs defense will bring it's "A game" for this one. That's bad news for a Roadrunners team that generally does not execute well on offense and that was evident again Thursday in UTSA's ugly tight win over Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech is 11-1 SU (and 4-2 ATS) in their games against teams with a losing record and each of their 4 prior wins over UTSA had come by a double digit margin. The Bulldogs are knocking down 46.7% of their field goal attempts this season. UTSA is shooting only 38.2% and averaging just 63 points per game in conference action. The Roadrunners have been held to 39.3% or less from the field in 6 of their last 7 games. Though they got a tight, low-scoring win Thursday, they are 2-11 SU and 2-8 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. That includes 0-4 ATS this season and this one turns into a road rout for the revenge-minded Bulldogs. 10* Top Play LOUISIANA TECH minus the points Saturday afternoon |
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02-10-17 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 131-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #855 Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - Denver is 9-17 SU on the road this season and yet the Knicks are a very small home favorite here. Looks easy to play New York, right? Exactly! That is why I am on the Nuggets here in typical contrarian fashion. The key here is that the Knicks are just a huge mess right now. The Charles Oakley situation (in the stands) just adds even more fuel to the fire and the fact is that the Knicks truly would be better off on the road right now than playing again at home where turmoil has gripped this team. New York comes into this one having lost 3 straight games and they are now 6-19 dating back to Christmas Day! Even though the Nuggets are off of a loss they had previously won 9 of their last 14 games and gone 10-4 ATS at the betting window during this solid stretch. Though their road record looks poor they have been playing quite well on the road. The trouble has been that recent games have included a pair of trips to San Antonio and a trip to Atlanta. Only 3-5 SU in their last 8 games played away from Denver but note that the 3 of the 5 losses came by 6 points or less and the Nuggets will take advantage of facing a struggling Knicks team in this one. Denver has won each of its last 3 meetings with the Knicks and that includes their last visit to New York. Also, the Nuggets are 7-3 SU and ATS (including 3-1 SU and ATS this season) when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. The Knicks are 3-0 to the over in their L3 games because their defense has given up 117 points per game! We're not playing the over here as you can but the significance in that is that New York is 5-12 SU and ATS the L3 seasons when they enter a game on an "over streak" of 3 games or more. The lackluster play on that end of the floor will again cause the demise of the Knicks tonight and I expect the road dog to get the upset win. 10* DENVER NUGGETS plus the points Friday |
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02-09-17 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska +8.5 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #746 Thursday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 9 ET - Looking at the rest of their regular season schedule, this is clearly the Cornhuskers "game of the year" and they've been known to rise up against quality competition. With this line moving all the way up to an 8.5 as of mid-morning on gameday we are capturing excellent line value here with a dangerous home dog. Nebraska is 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been a dog of 7 points or more. The last 5 times they were a dog of 7 points or more they have recorded the outright win 3 times! The Cornhuskers remaining home games don't include a single Big Ten team that currently has a wining record in conference action. In other words, this is indeed "the game" for Nebraska and they could be catching Wisconsin at the ideal time for an upset. The Badgers are off of a big home win versus Indiana and they have a tough home game with Northwestern on deck. This one game road "trip" is truly a dangerous spot in their schedule and the Badgers last 3 games featured two teams (Indiana and Illinois) certainly not known for their defense and another team (Rutgers) that is just a bad basketball team. With that said, the fact that Wiscy was held under 40.8% from the field in all 3 games and also shot horribly from three point land during this three-game stretch is a legitimate cause for concern. The way I see it, Wiscy is going to have to scratch and claw for a hard-fought victory here and they may not even escape with that. In a situation that has "upset" written all over it (keep in mind Huskers already upset Purdue, Maryland, and upset Hoosiers at Indiana) there is tremendous line value with the big points here. Look for the Cornhuskers to improve to 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they've been a dog of 7 points or more. 10* NEBRASKA plus the points Thursday night |
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02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs +3.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #708 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:35 ET - The Jazz are off of a huge win last night at New Orleans. That makes this a tough back to back spot for Utah and the Jazz are on a 1-6 ATS run in the 2nd night of back to backs. They face a Dallas team that has been playing much better of late and was off last night. The scheduling and situational edge is big here for the Mavericks who are on an 11-3 ATS run. The Mavs are playing this game with home loss revenge and Dallas has gone a fantastic 8-2 ATS when playing with home loss revenge this season. Look for the Mavericks to tighten things up defensively after allowing 114 to the Trail Blazers in a one point loss Tuesday. The Mavs are 12-6 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. After this game against a Western Conference foe, the Mavericks won't face another team from their conference for two weeks. Couple that with the home loss revenge factor as well as the back to back spot for Utah and you have the perfect situational advantages that dictate playing on the Mavericks in this one. They are off of back to back losses and haven't lost three straight since early January. Look for the Mavs to get back on track with a W here. 10* DALLAS MAVERICKS plus the points Thursday night |
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02-08-17 | Iowa v. Minnesota -6.5 | Top | 89-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #562 Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Golden Gophers (-) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 9 ET - Good spot for Minnesota here. The Golden Gophers have gone through a tough stretch but 4 of their 6 games were on the road. They did get back on track with a solid road win at Illinois Saturday and that was a big confidence booster for Minnesota. They had suffered a number of tight recent losses with their last 4 defeats coming by an average of 4 points per game. Now they are off of a win, back at home, and hosting an Iowa team that just isn't what it use to be and yet the Golden Gophers are currently looking up in the standings at the Hawkeyes. Minnesota's defense got back on track against the Illini and they'll be fired up about turning up the pressure on their home court to make up for a tight loss to Maryland in their most recent home game. Keep in mind the Golden Gophers two most recent home games were against a ranked Terrapins team and a ranked Wisconsin team. Prior to losing those 2 home games Minnesota was 12-1 at home with their only loss coming in overtime versus Michigan State. The Gophers will now take advantage of facing a lesser foe (in comparison with Badgers and Terps) and I look for them to get a big home win here. Iowa is off of a home win against Nebraska but the Hawkeyes are 2-7 away from home this season. Though they did win their most recent road game that was against a bad Rutgers team. The Hawkeyes lost each of their four prior road games in Big Ten action and the defeats came by an average margin of 18 points per loss! Before the win over a bad Scarlet Knights team, Iowa was winless both SU and ATS in true road games this season! The Golden Gophers last 8 wins have featured 7 victories by 7 points or more and this one is well within being a manageable number to lay with the hungry home team seeking revenge for a tight road loss at Iowa last season. 10* MINNESOTA |
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02-08-17 | Raptors v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #518 Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This is the classic case of the ugly home dog. Few will want Minnesota here as they recently lost PG Zach LaVine to season-ending injury and the Timberwolves come into this game having lost 4 straight. However, Minny is fired up for responding here after their defense let them down in their most recent game, a tight home loss to a red hot Miami team. The T-wolves caught an earful from their head coach about playing well on BOTH ends of the floor just one and Minnesota will be ready to go here. Keep in mind, the Timberwolves had held 3 of their 4 prior opponents under 45% from the field. Even though Toronto enters this game off of back to back wins, they faced a Clippers team struggling without Chris Paul and they faced the Nets (one of the worst teams in the league). Prior to those wins the Raptors had lost 8 of its last 10 and they're still trying to "work out the kinks" as they welcome back players who had missed some time due to injury. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and Toronto is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and each game has been in a different city. Against teams with a losing record the Raptors have failed to cover 4 of its last 6. The Timberwolves, seeking revenge for a loss at Toronto in December, are 7-4 SU and ATS in home games with a posted total of 210 or more. Also, when Minny enters a game off of 3 or more consecutive losses, they are 7-2 ATS this season. Being a contrarian generally pays off well and I love fading the line move in this particular situation that favors the home dog! 10* MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES |
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02-07-17 | Western Michigan -2 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 72-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks @ 7 ET - I lost with the Broncos on Friday and had my eyes on this match-up as the perfect spot to get some payback with Western Michigan. Keep in mind the Broncos played very well at Central Michigan Friday but then gave up a huge game-ending run to the Chippewas and lost the game by 4 as a 3.5 point dog. This was certainly a tough beat for the Broncos (and for me) but they've now had 3 full days since then to get fired up for a shot at redemption. Keep in mind this is a Western Michigan team that is still winless (0-9 SU) on the road this season! That said, one need not be concerned that there is anything wrong with this line. The Broncos are favored for a number of reasons. They are fired up after the way they lost at Central Michigan. They are ready to exact revenge against a Miami-Ohio team that beat them last year at Western Michigan in an ugly 45-44 game. The Broncos did defeat the Redhawks by a double digit margin in their most recent visit here. Miami-Ohio has faced a weaker schedule in comparison with the Broncos and yet the Redhawks are on an ugly 1-8 SU run. In home games the Redhawks have been held under 38% in each of their past two games and they averaged just 59.5 points in those two games and these were at home! The Broncos come in having shot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 road games. Western Michigan's last two road games this season are at Toledo and Northern Illinois and, though they certainly are not looking ahead you can bet they are fully aware that this game at Miami-Ohio represents their best shot at notching a road victory. No team wants to go 0-fer on the road for an entire season and the Broncos last 5 road losses have seen 4 come by a margin of 7 points or less. As they proved at Central Michigan, Western Michigan is on the cusp of getting that elusive road win and this is the perfect spot to do just that. I'll gladly lay the small number with a hungry road team that is ready to blast a struggling opponent. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN minus the short number early Tuesday evening |
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02-05-17 | Colorado +6.5 v. California | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Sunday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ California Golden Bears @ 4:30 ET - There is a lot of value with the points here. Colorado is off of 3 straight wins. After a 10-3 start to the season the Buffaloes then lost 7 straight but they've responded by rattling off 3 wins. It was evident the Buffs might be about to turn the corner as 4 of their past 6 defeats had come by 3 points or less. Of course what that means is that the Buffaloes, if priced at the point spread range they are in today, would be 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Ultra competitive Colorado has indeed turned the corner and they now take on a Cal team that, although winning, continues to be gauged incorrectly by the markets. California has won 6 of its last 7 games but they enter this Sunday match-up on a 1-5 ATS run. The Golden Bears were held to 40.3% in their tight non-covering win over Utah on Thursday. That marked the 7th time in their last 11 games that Cal was held under 40.4% from the field. Not surprisingly they've gone 4-7 ATS during this stretch and they now take on a Colorado team that is averaging 78 points per game (and shooting 45.8% in conference action). Compare this to California who is averaging just 69 points (and shooting 42.5% in PAC-12 action). The Golden Bears are just 5-12 ATS as a favorite this season. Also, over the past 3 seasons combined, Cal is 15-24 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s. The Bears will struggle to create much separation on the scoreboard in this one as Colorado is a dangerous dog. The Buffaloes have a 25-11 SU record the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Buffs roll into Cal with plenty of confidence and this one should go down to the wire with an outright win for the underdog (surging with confidence) certainly not out of the question. 10* Top Play COLORADO BUFFALOES plus the points Sunday afternoon |
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02-05-17 | Blazers +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #855 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:05 ET - This series has been dominated by the home team in recent match-ups but there are number of indicators pointing to an upset in this one. Portland comes into this one having gone 4-2 SU and ATS in their last 6 games. One key for the Trail Blazers, in comparison with the Thunder, has been turnovers. In their last 5 games, the Blazers have turned the ball over only 9.6 times per game. Conversely, Oklahoma City has turned the ball over an average of 16.2 times per game in their last 6 games. Â In 2 of their last 3 games the Thunder have turned it over 20 times. OKC enters this game having gone 1-3 SU and ATS in their last 4 games. The Thunder have been held to 38% or less from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. The Trail Blazers have been consistently at the other end of the spectrum of late. Portland is averaging 47% from the field over their last 6 games and has not been held below 45% in any of those games. This is also a tough scheduling spot for the Thunder as it's the 4th game of a stretch of 5 games in 7 days which is never easy on a team. As for the Blazers, this is one of only two games they have in the first 6 days of this month. Oklahoma City was a small home dog versus Memphis and the Thunder are an ugly 7-11 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Trail Blazers have excelled in divisional games with a 27-11 SU mark the past 3 seasons combined and they are 4-2 ATS in divisional games this season. 10* PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS plus the points Sunday |
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02-04-17 | St. John's +18 v. Villanova | Top | 79-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #675 Saturday - 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) @ Villanova @ 8 ET - The Red Storm are much improved this season and yet they are still flying under the radar which is why we're able to get exceptional line value in a spot like this. Villanova has failed to cover 4 straight games and has appeared shaky of late with an upset loss at Marquette, a fortunate win versus Virginia, and then having to rally to hold off Providence. The Wildcats just aren't "in the zone" like the way earlier this season in terms of playing their best basketball. With that said, this is a tough spot for the Cats to be expected to cover a large spread because St John's is playing their best basketball of the season and the confidence is enough to make them a legitimate threat to hang around in this game. While the Red Storm have been much better offensively than in year's past the key indicator that makes St John's dangerous here is a "buy in" into playing better on defense. After a win at Providence that was a shootout and then a tight home loss to Xavier, the Red Storm finally realized they must play better defense if they want to win the big games and they looked sharp in their win over Marquette as they held the dangerous shooting of the Golden Eagles to just 37.1% from the field. The Red Storm have now covered three straight games and with St John's on ATS winning streak and the Wildcats slumping at the betting window, this is the perfect spot to grab the value with the big dog before the betting markets catch up. Keep in mind, Villanova is 1-4 ATS in recent seasons (and 20-40 ATS long-term) when they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 games or more. The point is that the Wildcats are well-known for being a streaky team and they just are not playing "crisp" basketball right now like they were at times earlier in the season. As for the Red Storm, they are 9-5 ATS against teams with a winning record and they are 3-1 ATS (and SU!) when playing with home loss revenge this season. Now I certainly don't foresee them getting the outright upset here but I do expect the surging Red Storm to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 10* Top Play ST JOHN'S plus the big points Saturday evening. |
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02-04-17 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - This is one of my typical contrarian plays as certainly the line had to look a little "funny" to most when the hot Wizards opened up as only an 8 point choice even though they are at home against a slumping Pelicans team. Of course, whenever line look a little "off" it merits additional investigation and, in this case, I certainly like what I found. The Wizards are off of their non-covering win over the Lakers and have a huge game on deck with the Cavaliers. This is clearly a tough scheduling spot for Washington. Look for the Wizards to look right past a 19-31 New Orleans team that they've dominated in recent meetings. That makes the Pelicans a very dangerous dog in this spot. New Orleans is off of an ugly effort at Detroit and that was their 3rd straight SU loss. However, the Pelicans had gone 11-6 ATS prior to that non-cover against the Pistons and, after losing by 20, I look for N.O. to come out with plenty of fire in this one. New Orleans is 15-9 ATS in non-conference games this season and has played a tougher overall schedule than Washington this season. Look for the old West vs East disparity to play a factor in this one as well as, generally, the Western Conference teams face tougher competition than the East. The Wizards get caught looking ahead to the Cavs. 10* NEW ORLEANS plus the big points Saturday evening |
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02-03-17 | Pacers -7 v. Nets | Top | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #855 Friday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions so the only concern in laying the points would have to be motivation. But you can also "check the box" on that factor as well - for multiple reasons - and that is why I am laying the points with the Pacers in this one. Even though Indiana has a home game with Detroit on deck there is no way they'll look past the Nets here. That's because the Pacers have lost their last two visits to Brooklyn including their lone match-up there this season. That was Indiana's road opener and started a stretch of 5 straight road losses to begin the season. The other key factor is that the Pacers have been getting tremendous production of late from Paul George but he was held to a season-low 8 points at Orlando Wednesday and Indiana still won the game by double digits. That tells us two things as it relates to tonight's game: the Pacers supporting cast is fully capable of stepping up on an off night for George AND look for one of the NBA's best players to absolutely "go off" tonight with a huge game against one of the worst teams in the league. The Nets come into this game having gone 1-18 SU in their last 19 games. Brooklyn is also 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games. This is in stark contrast to a Pacers club that has won 11 of its last 15 games SU and has gone 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games. When Indiana enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more they've gone 3-1 ATS this season. When Brooklyn enters a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, they've gone 6-16 ATS this season. The Pacers have beaten the Nets by a combined 33 points in their last two home meetings but they've lost their last two road meetings by a combined 19 points and it is time for some road revenge here. 10* INDIANA PACERS minus the points |
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02-02-17 | Lakers +11 v. Wizards | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Lakers (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards have won 15 straight home games which is the longest current home winning streak in the NBA. The Lakers have won only 5 road games this season which is fewer than any other team in the Western Conference. The combination of these two factors is likely going to have many jumping all over Washington in this one but this situation favors Los Angeles and I'll gladly grab the big points here. While the Lakers will be playing just their 2nd game in the past 7 days, the Wizards will be playing their 4th game in 7 days. Also it is easy for Washington to overlook a 17-34 team like the Lakers. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slow start for the Wizards in this one and though they should pull out the win in the end it is likely going to be by single digits as the Lakers are going to given them a tough game. Los Angeles welcomed back D'Angelo Russell in their most recent game and got the win over Denver Tuesday. Also, the Lakers could have Julius Randle back tonight. Whether Randle is back or not, I like the fact that LA has some momentum coming in off of their win over the Nuggets and I also like the fact that 4 of the Lakers last 5 defeats have come by 8 points or less. The Lakers last road trip started horribly with a bad loss at Dallas but that is the only game in their last 7 games that has resulted in a loss by more than 8 points. Lakers are playing better and are fully focused as they want to get this 5-game road trip started on the right foot. The fresher legs will prove to help as well as they had 4 days off before that victory over Denver. It is going to be difficult for a superior Eastern Conference foe to maintain their intensity against a Pacific Division opponent. In fact, the Lakers have gone 5-2 ATS this season (and 17-9 ATS the past 3 seasons) in games against Southeast Division foes. They "sneak up" on the Wizards here and end their 10-0 ATS run! 10* LOS ANGELES LAKERS |
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02-01-17 | Pacers -2.5 v. Magic | Top | 98-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers are a much better home team than road team. There is no doubt about that. However, Indiana has won 10 of its last 14 games overall, including 3 in a row, and Paul George has been red hot and certainly seems to be rounding into top form again. The Pacers have won 3 of their last 5 road games and Orlando is only 8-15 at home this season. Even though the Magic just recently got Evan Fournier back, he'll take some time to round back into top form and the backcourt depth has been hurt with the absence of CJ Wilcox and Jodie Meeks. Indiana is 8-1 (SU and ATS!) in its last 9 meetings with the Magic and this is an Orlando team that enters this game having lost 13 of its last 17 games. All 13 losses for the Magic during this rough stretch have come by at least 6 points so the small point spread here certainly should not prove to be an obstacle. The Magic are 7-15-1 ATS in home games this season and have field to cover 2 of 7 as a home dog of 3 points or less. The Pacers are on a 4-1 ATS run when off of a game where they allowed 104 points or less. Orlando has been held to 98 points or less in regulation in 10 of its last 14 games. This is in stark contrast to a high-powered Indiana offense that has scored at least 100 points in 17 of its last 20 games. Lay the small number with the small road fave in this one. 10* INDIANA PACERS |
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02-01-17 | Penn State v. Indiana -6 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #526 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Hoosiers (-) vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 6:30 ET - The Hoosiers are without James Blackmon Jr. and he is their leading scorer. However, after back to back road losses (including one without Blackmon at Northwestern Saturday), Indiana will respond at home. Certainly it helps the Hoosiers that they are back home but what also helps is that they played a game without him at Northwestern Saturday. Indiana played respectable defense in that game but they shot very poorly. The Hoosiers will get back on track at home as they still have a number of solid players that can "fill it up" as guys like Robert Johnson, Thomas Bryant, Josh Newkirk, and Juwan Morgan are all capable of getting double digits in points. Also, freshman Devonte Green is likely to shoot much better at home after the guard had a tough road game against the Wildcats in his first game with extended minutes due to the Blackmon injury. Penn State is off of a home win versus Illinois but they lost their past two road games by a combined 52 points! Before a rare strong shooting night versus the Illini, the Nittany Lions had been held under 38.9% in four straight games! Look for the Lions shooting struggles to resume on the road tonight. The Hoosiers, off of back to back losses, will bring the intensity on defense for this one and this is an Indiana team that has averaged 87.3 points per game at home this season. Even without Blackmon, the Hoosiers will be able to score plenty and knock off a Penn State team that does not travel well. Even though the Nittany Lions are playing this game with home loss revenge from a month ago, PSU is an ugly 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played with home loss revenge! That includes 0-2 SU and ATS so far this season. Indiana is on a 44-6 SU run in home games and they've gone 8-4 ATS in home games this season. Of course we're getting supreme line value here on the Hoosiers because of the Blackmon injury. A line that first opened up at 9 is all the way down to a 6 and I'll gladly fade the move and grab the great line value with the home fave that is ready to step up tonight. Lay it! 10* INDIANA HOOSIERS |
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01-31-17 | Miami (OH) v. Bowling Green -5 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Early Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #726 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons (-) vs Miami-Ohio Redhawks @ 7 ET - Ugly records here overall for both teams but that doesn't diminish the importance of this game to either school as this is a big rivalry match-up. From a situational perspective, this one sets up perfectly for the Falcons. Bowling Green is off of an embarrassing home loss but the key was that 4 players were suspended before that game. Two were starters including the Falcons leading scorer. How diminished was the BG roster? They actually suited up two football players just so that they could have 9 players available and one of those was a walk-on. The point is that the 96-72 home loss was not a surprise given the circumstances but the key is how that impacts this game. It probably kept this line a little lower than it should be and I expect Bowling Green to come out with a ton of fire and emotion after what happened Saturday. The Falcons are hosting a Redhawks team that is 0-8 on the road this season. Also, Miami-Ohio comes into this game having lost 6 of its last 7 overall. 6 of their 8 road losses this season have come by 7 points or more! The Falcons have won 7 of their last 10 home games and 5 of the last 6 home wins have come by double digit margins and none of the 6 victories came by less than 5 points. Look for the Redhawks to drop to 7-12 ATS when they are off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less while the Falcons improve to 4-0 ATS when this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 83 points or more. 10* BOWLING GREEN |
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01-29-17 | South Florida +24.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 53-94 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #869 Sunday 10* Top Play South Florida Bulls (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 4 ET - The Bulls definitely fit the bill as an "ugly dog" as they are still winless in conference action while Cincinnati is undefeated in American Athletic Conference action. However, the set-up here is perfect for a South Florida team (playing a little better since coach change) to keep this one well within the inflated spread range. For the Bulls, this is an opportunity to go hard against a ranked conference foe. For the Bearcats, they just want to win and move on. The Cats are off of a huge win over Xavier in their city rivalry game that just took place Thursday. Not only was that a big win for the Bearcats, Cincinnati has a road game up next with Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane only have 2 losses in conference action and will present a formidable challenge for the Cats. With that said, this is a true "sandwich spot" as Cincy is off of a tight, emotional win over a city rival and has a big road conference game on deck. Even if the Bearcats do get up big in this game there is simply no reason to "pour it on" and I see this game being decided by no more than 18 points. Cincy blew out the Bulls in their most recent match-up but the two prior games were Bearcats wins by an average margin of just 4 points a game. South Florida is on a 12-4 ATS run as a road dog of 12.5 points or more. The Bulls have shot the ball a little better and averaged 63 points per game in their last 6 games and if they hit that average the Bearcats would have to get to nearly 90 points to cover in this one. That has only happened once in Cincinnati's last 8 games. Grab the big points in this one. 10* SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS |
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01-29-17 | Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #850 Sunday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 1 ET - The Cavaliers are known for their defense but they've actually allowed opponents to connect in the mid-forties from the field over their last 8 games - basically since conference action got underway. The Wildcats aren't quite as heralded for their defense but yet, prior to the upset loss at Marquette, they had allowed only about 40% from the field over their last 10 games. Villanova is fired up to respond after a very rare poor shooting night resulted in a loss to the Golden Eagles. The Wildcats shot a ridiculous 17.6% from three point land. The Cavaliers, again even though known for defending well, had struggled against the three ball in their last 6 games prior to a dominating win at Notre Dame. With the Cavs off of that big win and the Cats off of an upset loss, this one sets up nice. We get some extra line value as a result of those most recent games and, keep in mind, the Wildcats are at home and are seeking revenge for a loss at Virginia last season. The Cats show the ball very well in five straight games before the loss in Milwaukee and they'll get right back on track here. Nova is 6-0 SU (and 5-1 ATS) when off of a loss to a conference foe. Also, the Cavs are 10-30 SU (and 15-25 ATS) as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Cavaliers are also on a long-term 7-17 ATS run against Big East opponents. Payback is on order here and I look for the Wildcats to get it as this team is strong off of a loss! 10* VILLANOVAÂ |
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01-28-17 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
THE Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are in a back to back. The Celtics won in a blowout and the Bucks lost in a blowout. That will likely have many backing Milwaukee since they are at home for this one. However, neither team had to go extended minutes on any of their players last night and the Celtics are the better team and playing the much better basketball. More on that shortly. First off, lets also note the following stats in the 2nd day of back to backs: The Bucks are 2-7 ATS this season and 17-33 SU the past 3 seasons combined! The Celtics are a phenomenal 7-3 SU this season and 31-15 ATS the past 3 seasons combined! You can see that back to back spots have clearly favored Boston over Milwaukee. Also, the Bucks come into this game slumping and their defense has been atrocious of late. This has played a large role in Milwaukee going 1-7 (both SU and ATS) in their last 8 games. As for the Celtics, they are expected to have Al Horford back for this game and certainly they've adjusted well since Avery Bradley got hurt. Long-term the Celtics are on a 15-6 SU run and, on the road, Boston has gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. This line has been flip-flopping this morning but, no matter what, it is still noteworthy that in road games where the Celtics line is between a pick'em and -3 Boston has gone 7-0 SU and ATS this season! The Bucks are a horrible 1-9 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Celtics have averaged just 12.7 turnovers per game in their last 7 games. The Bucks have turned the ball over 19 times in each of their last 3 games. Boston has held 10 of its last 12 opponents to 47.1% or less from the field. Milwaukee has allowed 3 of its last 4 foes to knock down better than 50.5% of their shots from the field. This one has the makings of a road rout. 10* BOSTON |
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01-28-17 | Kansas +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
THE GAME KU/UK - Rickenbach CBB Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 6:15 ET - With all the distractions going on the best possible thing for the Jayhawks is to simply "play basketball" and that is why I love Kansas in this spot. With the suspension of Carlton Bragg and then the investigation into a dorm incident (unrelated to the Bragg suspension) there has been a lot of "noise" around the KU basketball program right now. Of course coach Bill Self just wants to get his team back on the floor and "see how they respond" Saturday but I have very little doubt about how they'll respond. The Jayhawks are off of an embarrassing loss by a double digit margin at West Virginia Tuesday and they're fired up and ready to go for this opportunity to atone for that loss on the biggest possible stage. This shot at the Wildcats truly could not have come at a better time for a Jayhawk program that needs to make some positive headlines after all that has transpired just recently. Keep in mind Kansas had won 18 in a row before the loss to the Mountaineers and the Jayhawks have knocked down 40% or better from beyond the arc in 6 of their last 7 games. The Wildcats have been held to 26.3% or worse from 3-point land in three of their last six games. Kentucky's defense, including perimeter D, has truly struggled over these 6 games as well. The Jayhawks have played a slightly tougher schedule this season and I like the fact that KU is undervalued by the betting markets right now because of what just happened at Huntington and the fact that Kansas is only 6-12 ATS on the season. The Jayhawks are 9-0 SU when off of a loss to a conference rival and also 9-0 SU (and 7-2 ATS) when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Kentucky may eke out a win here but, this one should go to the wire and be decided only by a possession (or two at the most) and that means value with the big points. Look for the Wildcats to drop to 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as their slump continues. 10* KANSAS JAYHAWKS |
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01-27-17 | Nets +15 v. Cavs | Top | 116-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #857 Friday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers are struggling and, as a result, many will likely be looking to back them here after a home loss. However, there are a number of issues with that. Historically, playing teams off of an overtime loss is often a dicey play as OT losses are toughest on a team's psyche and, the fact is the Cavs were already fragile before losing at home to the Kings on Wednesday. Another factor going against Cleveland here is simply the large spread. The Cavaliers are not only trying to get back on track here but they're being asked to cover a 15 point spread. This seems to be far too much considering Brooklyn has been playing a little bit better. The Nets actually led the Heat by 18 points in what was an eventual 3 point loss at Miami Wednesday. That means that 3 of Brooklyn's last 4 losses were decided by an average of 6.7 points per game. By the way, the one win in their there was a Nets "explosion" on offense as they erupted for 143 points at New Orleans last Friday. Certainly the Brooklyn D is not a strength but their offense has averaged 110.6 points per game in their last 7 games and it is that type of offensive production that makes a team dangerous in terms of a backdoor cover as well. The point is that even if the Cavs are fortunate enough to get up by 20 points in this game, when they start emptying the bench and looking ahead to a weekend showdown with OKC, the Nets can very easily get this one back to a 10 or 12 point game. The fact is I feel this one will be decided by single digits as the Cavs are just looking to get back into the win column after losing 3 straight and 6 of their last 8. Cleveland's ATS numbers are even worse as they've covered only 3 times in their last 15 games - a 20% ATS clip! Other than a blowout loss versus San Antonio (one of the hottest teams in the league) the Nets have looked much better over the past week and a half and everyone gets up for facing the Cavs. In other words, look for another strong effort from the hungry road dog in this one as Cleveland's issues continue. The Cavaliers are an ugly 6-14 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record this season. The Nets are 8-4 ATS when playing with home loss revenge and they lost to the Cavs by 8 points in Brooklyn three weeks ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 8 point loss for the Nets here and that means plenty of line value with the big points here. 10* BROOKLYN NETS |
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01-27-17 | Dartmouth v. Columbia -7.5 | Top | 54-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #874 Friday 10* Top Play Columbia Lions (-) vs Dartmouth Big Green @ 7 ET - Columbia entered Saturday's match-up versus the Big Red having won 3 straight games and covered 3 straight games. This included Friday's outright upset win at Cornell. After three straight victories, the Lions did not get the job done on their home floor Saturday and that sets this one up perfectly. Columbia is at home, off of a home loss, they are well rested, and they are facing a bad Dartmouth team. Coming into the season the Big Green knew that their biggest need was a playmaking guard. That hasn't materialized for coach David McLaughlin as his team has 15 turnovers compared to just 11 assists per game and their leading assist man is only averaged 2 assists per game. Columbia, though they lost a lot of talent from last season's team, are in a much better spot for success this season. Their new coach, Jim Engles, was an assistant with the Lions from 2003 to 2008 and then went on to have a successful run as a head coach at NJIT. He's now back with Columbia but, thanks to his familiarity with the program, there wasn't much of a transition period. As a result, the Lions may surprise some teams in conference action this season and certainly they should have no trouble with a Big Green team they annihilated by an average of 18 points per game in last season's two meetings. In lined games this season, Dartmouth is 0-7 SU (and only 1-6 ATS). As a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points in recent seasons, the Big Green have gone 0-5 SU (and 1-4 ATS). The Lions have a long-term mark of 23-6 SU (and 18-11 ATS) in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Columbia is at home and the Lions defend better, shoot better, have more playmaking ability, take better care of the basketball, and are motivated off of a loss that snapped a 3-game winning streak. Look for a blowout home win here. 10* COLUMBIA LIONS |
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01-26-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Marshall -14 | Top | 71-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #724 Thursday - 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET - The Thundering Herd have been getting off to slow starts in their games and so they aim to come out strong from the opening tip in the middle game of a 3-game homestand. Marshall also has revenge against UTSA as the Roadrunners handed the Thundering Herd a loss in Huntington in their only trip here. I see this spot as a great spot for Marshall to not only get revenge but to get it in blowout fashion. They are motivated to start out strong, as noted above, and their #1 C-USA ranked offense is simply going to be too much for the Runners to keep up with. Marshall is averaging 92 points per home game while UTSA is averaging only 61 points per road game this season. As you can see that is a 31-point differential but, what is keeping this line in check is the fact that the Roadrunners have some solid defensive numbers on the season. However, that has been helped by facing a weak schedule thus far (including the C-USA opponents that UTSA has faced). In other words, the Runners defense, although improved, is simply over-rated right now and their offense is too anemic to keep up with the high-powered Herd in this one. The Roadrunners are 2-10 SU (and 2-7 ATS) when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Also, the Runners are 2-8 SU (and 2-5 ATS) in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. The Thundering Herd are on a long-term 24-9 ATS run as a favorite and Marshall is on a long-term 26-12 ATS run when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Look for the Thundering Herd to stay hot and add to their fantastic mark of 10-0 SU (and 7-0 ATS) in home games this season! 10* MARSHALL |
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01-25-17 | 76ers +11 v. Bucks | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks will be a popular play here since they are at home, seeking revenge, and catching the Sixers in a back to back. However, the 76'ers are on the top of roll right now that, no matter the situation, they are going to be a tough out for anyone. Philadelphia has now won 9 of its last 12 games and they've gone 10-2 ATS during this stretch. Also, Philly has covered 3 of its last 4 match-ups with the Bucks including winning in Milwaukee earlier this month. Though Joel Embiid is expected to miss again tonight, the Sixers got huge frontcourt production from Noel and Holmes last night and Okafor may be available tonight. Even though this a back to back spot for the Sixers they did have have a pair of off days prior to this and they have a non-conference game on deck. Even though the Sixers are off of a big upset win last night (over the Clippers) they have gone 9-5 ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, the 76'ers are 12-6 ATS this season when playing against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS against Central Division opponents this season and Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Bucks also are a long-term 19-37 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Milwaukee is only 8-15 ATS this season against teams with a losing record and, off of a big win over Houston and with a tough match-up at Toronto on deck, the Bucks may struggle to fully focus on the Sixers in this one. Milwaukee was 2-8 ATS before their win and cover over the Rockets and this pointspread tonight is heavily inflated considering the way the 76'ers are playing right now. Also, only one player logged more than 29 minutes for Philly in last night's win over the Clippers. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-23-17 | Spurs v. Nets +12.5 | Top | 112-86 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Monday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - The Nets are hell-bent on turning things around and I like what I have been seeing from them. Brooklyn is coming off of a pair of road games where they won big at New Orleans (143-114) and then showed a lot of heart in their next game even though it was a back to back situation. After the big win over the Pelicans, the Nets visited Charlotte the next night and they got down huge early (not surprising given the rare road win the night before) but they battled all the way back to eventually take a lead in the 4th quarter. Granted the lead was brief but the resilience and mettle that Brooklyn showed in that game was something to take note of. I expect another huge effort from the Nets here and they are a big home dog to the Spurs so it is a perfect spot to take Brooklyn. While the Nets will be fully focused on this "opportunity" against one of the best teams in the NBA, it is a tough situational spot for the Spurs. They are off of their big OT win at Cleveland Saturday night and Kawhi Leonard logged a career-high 46 minutes in that game. In terms of team depth San Antonio is still without Pau Gasol and Tony Parker. The poor scheduling spot for the Spurs is because, not only did they beat the Cavs in OT Saturday, they have a trip to Toronto on deck to face the Raptors tomorrow. These are the types of games where coach Gregg Popovich will alter his playing rotations and minutes to make sure the Spurs have a lot left in the tank for the tough match-up with Toronto that is immediately on deck. San Antonio is likely to win this but only by single digits. 10* BROOKLYN |
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01-22-17 | Arizona State +8.5 v. USC | Top | 79-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona State Sun Devils (+) @ USC Trojans @ 8:30 ET - While this looks like a bounce back spot for Southern Cal, keep in mind two key factors. One is that USC has now lost 4 of 6 games after starting the season 14-0. In other words, reality is setting in that the Trojans were a little over-hyped. The second factor is that Southern Cal has a huge game on deck as they are hosting UCLA on Wednesday. That makes this spot a lookahead spot for USC. Though the Trojans played very well in non-conference action, the concern from them in Pac-12 action is they've been held under 42.2% in 6 of their 7 games. In 5 of those 6 the percentage was under 39.5%. Their home loss to Arizona Thursday was the 4th time in their last 7 games that they've been held under 37.4% from the field. USC is known for their defense but, in Pac-12 action, looking at their last 6 games they've allowed 45.5% or better in 4 of the 6 games. The Sun Devils have a dangerous offense that, prior to their Thursday loss at UCLA, had shot at least 45.7% from the field in 6 of their last 7 games. Arizona State is going to challenge USC here because this is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions when it comes to scoring capabilities. The Sun Devils are averaging 80 points per game in conference games while the Trojans are averaging 68 points per game in Pac-12 action. Again, USC does have the better defense but the ASU offense is going to test them early and often and the Trojans will be in a dogfight just to try to win this game let alone cover the big spread. The Sun Devils are a long-term 26-13 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. The Trojans are on an overall 2-9 ATS run their last 11 games. 10* ARIZONA STATE |
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01-22-17 | Suns +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Shotgun Shellacking - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 6:05 ET - Many are likely to back the Raptors here as they look for the bounce back from Toronto after back to back ugly losses at Philly and Charlotte. However, the Raptors actually don't have a good history in spots like this. In fact, when off of a game where they scored 85 points or less, Toronto has gone 1-9 ATS the past 3 seasons. Also, the Raptors are hosting a Suns team that has been tough on them in recent meetings. Phoenix has won 3 of the last 5 meetings and they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in those games. The last 3 games have all been decided by 8 points or less. That said, there is significant line value with the large spread posted on this game. The Suns will be fired up for this game as they enter off of a double digit loss at Cleveland. Prior to that loss to the Cavs, Phoenix was on a 7-2 ATS run and had been playing some of their best basketball of the season with a 3-3 SU run where all 3 losses came by 5 points or less. The point is that the Suns have been playing ultra-competitive basketball and I don't foresee them getting blown out here. Phoenix is actually a solid 10-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Raptors are only 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games and only had 2 SU wins by more than 10 points during this stretch. In other words, laying points in the price range they are in today would have had Toronto on a 2-12 ATS run. Look for this game to be much closer than most are expecting. 10* PHOENIX |
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01-21-17 | Spurs v. Cavs -2 | Top | 118-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
National TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET Saturday - The Cavaliers have won 2 of their last 3 games but those wins came against weak competition - the Suns and the Kings. The only game that really mattered to Cleveland was their game at Golden State and they got blown out in that game. The Cavaliers shot just 35% in that game while the Warriors knocked down 50.5% of their shots. On deck after this game for the Cavs is trio of three straight weak foes. The point is that Cleveland is absolutely going to go "all out" in this game against the Spurs after getting thoroughly embarrassed by Golden State earlier this week. The Cavs need an opponent against whom they can get a "statement win" and into Cleveland comes the 33-9 Spurs. The Cavaliers covered both meetings with San Antonio last season and the Spurs are without big man Pau Gasol (hand injury). Tony Parker is also dealing with an ankle injury. This game means A LOT to Cleveland given the recent circumstances and they were able to "rest up" in their blowout win over the Suns Thursday. The Cavs have gone 9-4 ATS when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Spurs are off of a "miracle cover" against the short-handed Nuggets Thursday as the way the last few minutes played out was rather "miraculous" for Spurs backers. Now they face a tough test on the road and San Antonio had failed to cover 3 of their last 4 before sneaking out a cover versus Denver. This game means more to the Cavs who are out to redeem themselves against a Western Conference power after the embarrassment at Golden State. 10* CLEVELAND |
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01-21-17 | Wyoming +8 v. New Mexico | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #659 Saturday - 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) @ New Mexico Lobos @ 8 ET - The road team has gotten the cash in 6 of the Lobos last 7 games so certainly home court has meant very little. New Mexico is off of back to back road wins but they shot the ball extremely well in those games (including from three point land) and they can't maintain that type of clip long-term. The Lobos now face a team that plays much better defense than they do. The Cowboys are allowing just 39.5% from the field and 29.8% from beyond the arc while New Mexico is allowing 43.5% and 38.2%, respectively. Wyoming also heads into this game with confidence off of a big road win and their match-ups with the Lobos have been tight as the Cowboys are known for giving them tough games. Overall, the last 3 match-ups between these teams have been decided by a TOTAL of only 6 points so that's an average of just 2 points per game and yet this line currently sits at an 8. Also, New Mexico is only 1-5 ATS at home this season and also only 1-5 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s. Conversely, the Cowboys have thrived in games projected to be high-scoring as they are 6-3 ATS this season in games where the posted total is in the 150s. Wyoming is also 6-3 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Cowboys have been better on the boards this season than the Lobos with a 39-34 edge in rebounding. Look for another close game between these rivals and that means excellent line value with the big points. 10* WYOMING plus the big points Saturday evening |
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01-20-17 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Akron | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
CBS Sports Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #885 Friday 10* Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Akron Zips @ 6:30 ET - Akron has a long home winning streak going with 26 straight wins at Rhodes Arena. Not surprisingly, after opening up at a -5, this line has jumped up to a -6 on the Zips and certainly could move higher. This is offering tremendous line value to a revenge-seeking Eastern Michigan team. The Eagles were knocked out of the MAC Tourney by Akron last spring and the perfect revenge would be to put an end to the Zips 26-game home winning streak. This is a veteran Eastern Michigan team that also has a solid backcourt. With strong guard play and, the fact that the Eagles play better defense than the Zips, an upset here would certainly not be a complete surprise. Eastern Michigan is holding opponents to 40.9% from the field and 32.8% from three point land. Akron has allowed 44.0% and 35.6%, respectively, in those same categories. The Eagles are averaging 82 points per game compared to 79 points per game for the Zips. Talk around Akron is already about where the Zips would fit into the Big Dance seedings, etc. I am not saying it is too early for that but I am saying that Eastern Michigan is likely to prove to be the hungrier team here after being knocked out of the conference tourney in March by these Zips. Also, Akron comes into this one a little over-confident because of their lengthy home winning streak. Note that the Zips are an ugly 2-6 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Eastern Michigan is on a solid 5-2 ATS run when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, the Eagles are a perfect 4-0 (SU and ATS) in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game this season. I am looking for an upset but certainly grabbing all the points I can get here. 10* Top Play EASTERN MICHIGAN plus the points very early Friday evening |
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01-19-17 | Nuggets +12.5 v. Spurs | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET Thursday - Good spot for an upset here and the fact is that if the Nuggets do fall short of the big upset win, they should keep this one to single digits. Denver is seeking revenge for one of their most embarrassing home losses of the season as they got drilled 127-99 in Colorado exactly two weeks ago. In that game, San Antonio had their best shooting night of the season with 56.7% from the field including 50% (12 of 24) from three point land. The Spurs are just 2-2 in their last 4 games and their most recent win came by just 8 points as they were definitely challenged by Minnesota Tuesday. San Antonio has now failed to cover 3 of its last 4 games and they have a huge game on deck as Saturday they are in Cleveland for their first shot of the season at the World Champion Cavaliers. It will be hard for the Spurs, as disciplined as they are, to be able to avoid at least peeking ahead to the Cavs. The Nuggets will be the hungrier and more focused team tonight and Denver didn't have power forward Kenneth Faried in the meeting two weeks ago. He's scored 15 points or more in 3 straight games and the Nuggets have won and covered all 3 games. Denver is full of confidence coming into this game having knocked down 57% of their shots in their last 3 games. The Nuggets also have dominated the glass over their last four games. Denver is 8-4 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. The Nuggets are also 8-4 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Ride the revenging dog in this one as they will surprise the Spurs with how far they've come in the 2 weeks since these teams last met. 10* DENVER plus the big points Thursday |
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01-19-17 | Maryland +2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #715 Thursday - 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - The very first lines to come out on this game had the Terps as a 1.5 point favorite. From that point forward the line has now moved a full 4 points as the Terrapins are now a 2.5 point underdog in this match-up. I love to fade moves like this where the game swings strongly and I see great line value here with a solid 16-2 Maryland team. The only two losses the Terps have this season came against Pittsburgh and a 2-point defeat versus Nebraska. The point is that at +2.5 in all game this season the Terrapins would have a 16-1 ATS record. Couple that with the fact that the Hawkeyes are being a bit over-rated here, and you have fantastic line value. Iowa has managed to 'rise up' on a couple of occasions and get big home wins over Iowa State and Purdue. However, this Hawkeyes team is, overall, certainly not at the level of prior Iowa teams. The Hawkeyes are coming off of an 89-54 demolishing defeat at Northwestern. Though many will look for the bounce back here, the fact is that it was the 5th time in the last 6 games that Iowa has allowed 78 points or more! This is in stark contrast with a Maryland team that has only allowed more than 75 points a single time in 18 games this season! The Terrapins are allowing just 65 points per game this season while the Hawkeyes are giving up 78 points per game this season. Maryland is a perfect 6-0 away from home this season. The Terrapins are also a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in their games as an underdog this season. The Hawkeyes are 3-9 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and Iowa is also an ugly 1-5 ATS when off of a game where they scored 60 points or less. I'll gladly challenge this over-rated team to try and bounce back here because they've proven unable to do just that time and time again in recent seasons as you can see from those ATS numbers. 10* MARYLAND plus the points Thursday |
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01-18-17 | Grizzlies +3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET Wednesday - The Wizards have won 12 straight home games and yet they're only laying 3 points in this one in Washington. It is "interesting" to say the least and I am calling for the upset here. The Wizards were simply on fire with their shooting from the opening tip in their big MLK day victory over Portland. Washington knocked down a ridiculous 9 of 13 three pointers to begin the game. The Wizards have been hot from three point land but they now face a Memphis team that is known for its defense and is coming off of a loss. The Grizzlies will be hungry here after catching an earful from their head coach due to poor defense both in the 2nd and 4th quarters of their most recent game - a home loss to Chicago. Prior to that defeat, Memphis had won 3 of their last 4 games and that included road wins at Houston and Golden State! If the Grizzlies can get road wins against the Rockets and Warriors, they certainly can knock off the Wizards. In fact, Washington is 1-5 ATS (and 0-6 SU!) in their games against Southwest Division opponents this season. Memphis is allowing only 99 points per game this season while the Wizards are allowing 106 points per game. The Grizzlies are holding opponents to 43.5% from the field while Washington is allowing 46.5% from the field. The Grizz have gone 39-25 (SU and ATS) when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. 10* MEMPHIS |
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01-17-17 | Raptors -11 v. Nets | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 Tuesday - Normally the only concern in a game like this is that Toronto would not be motivated and may overlook Brooklyn. However, that is unlikely to happen for two reasons. For one thing, tomorrow's Raptors opponent is the 76'ers so certainly there is no concern about Toronto looking ahead to a match-up with another team near the bottom of their division. Secondly, the Raptors lost their most recent road game and, in fact, have lost 4 of their last 5 road games. This ensures the proper focus from Toronto here and this is a Raptors team that is a perfect 8-0 in divisional games this season and has produced a 7-1 ATS mark in those games. Toronto is an overall 19-7 in their last 26 games and their average margin of victory in those 19 wins is 16 points! The Raptors are well known for their blowout wins and I just don't see the Nets being able to hang around in this one. Recently Brooklyn has had some winnable home games against teams like the Sixers and Pelicans and yet they've still ended up getting crushed in those games. They are struggling from three point land, their defense has been pathetic, and they have also been losing the battle of the boards. This will continue to be an issue tonight as they are clearly out-classed in this match-up and the Raptors have added focus on the road due to recent losses away from home. Toronto is 11-3 ATS when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Raptors also are 4-2 ATS when on the road and favored in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. The Nets are 0-7 in divisional games this season and have covered only 2 of those games. After being obliterated by Houston in their most recent game, note that Brooklyn is 3-11 ATS when off of a non-conference game. 10* TORONTO |
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01-17-17 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -8.5 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Early ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #726 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - Oftentimes in rivalry games I like to side with the dogs but this one sets up much differently than most and, as a result, I expect the favorite to win this one in an absolute blowout. The I-75 rivalry in Northeast Ohio between Toledo and Bowling Green resumes tonight and both the Rockets and Falcons are off of back to back losses. However, that is where the similarities between these teams end! The Falcons were at home for both of their games and yet they got completely obliterated by a combined 45 points in those games. The Bowling Green coach is trying to blame it on poor defense because they emphasized offense too much but the fact is their offense only averaged 52.5 points per game so I think he's a little out of touch with his own team here. The problem for BG is they are 1-6 on the road this season and now take on a Toledo team that is 7-1 at home on the season and whose back to back losses entering this match-up both came on the road. Unlike the Falcons, the Rockets did score well in their two defeats (81 points per game!) but they were done in by some hot shooting from their opponents. Look for Toledo (averaging 82.6 points per game on the season) to bounce back in a big way here at home. It is much easier to play at home coming off B2B road losses than to be on the road after B2B home losses. The place will be rocking in Toledo tonight and the Rockets haven't lost here against Bowling Green in 5 years! The Falcons are 9-19 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when, past the midway point of the season, they are facing a team with a winning record. The Rockets are 21-5 SU and 12-9 ATS against teams with a losing record the past 3 seasons combined and everyone is talking about how important this home game is in this rivalry series. 10* Top Play TOLEDO |
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01-16-17 | Providence +6.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 74-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Primetime TV Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #543 Monday - 10* Top Play Providence Friars (+) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ 9 ET - Georgetown has won two straight games but it certainly is nothing to be too excited about as Hoyas fans know all too well. These two wins came against St John's (one of the worst teams in their conference) and then against UConn (a non-conference win). Georgetown was not impressive in their win by a slim margin over the Huskies and now they certainly face a much tougher challenge today and yet many have backed the Hoyas here. The line jumped from an opener of -5 up to a -6.5 and I'll gladly grab the added value here on the underdog in a game where I don't even expect I'll need the points. Keep in mind, Georgetown is only 1-4 in Big East action this season and Providence has won 5 straight games in this series. The Friars recorded the 2-0 sweep each of the past two seasons over the Hoyas and then already beat them in Providence early this month to get this year's season series started off on the right foot. The Friars are 8-4 ATS against teams with a winning record this season while Georgetown is the polar opposite at 4-8 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Hoyas are 0-3 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s this season and also are 0-4 ATS when playing with road loss revenge. With their poor performance at the betting window against winning teams, I don't see any reason for things to change here as the Friars come into this one fired up about losing their last road game by a single point. That hunger will show on the floor here as they seek  back to back wins in Big East action which they know is critical to moving back up the standings. 10* PROVIDENCE |
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01-16-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 91-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
TNT Top Game - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET Monday - Revenge spots don't get much better than this. Not only did the Cavs when 3 straight to rally back from a 3-1 series deficit and take the NBA Championship from the Warriors last June, they then snuck out a 1-point win on Christmas Day about 3 weeks ago in Cleveland. Now the Cavaliers are in Golden State to face a fired up Warriors team that his its sight set on big-time revenge on their home court. Even though the Cavs are off of a win at Sacramento, they came into that game having lost 3 of their last 5 games. The only two wins for Cleveland in that stretch came against Brooklyn (worst team in NBA) and Phoenix (least wins in the Western Conference). That said, the Cavaliers aren't exactly playing impressive ball of late and, in fact, enter tonight's game on a 2-8 ATS run. Off of that win over the Kings, note that Cleveland is an ugly 3-9 ATS this season when off of a non-conference game. The Warriors are 34-6 on the season and 11 of their last 12 wins have come by 8 points or more. Golden State is also 32-17 ATS their last 49 games when playing with revenge. The Warriors also are a stellar 16-7 ATS in home games where they are favored in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Indeed, the "price is right" here with the home fave and I'll gladly lay the points Monday evening. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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01-14-17 | Baylor +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
#1 Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 4:30 ET - The Bears got thoroughly embarrassed in their ugly loss at West Virginia Tuesday. After allowing 63 points or less in 14 of their 15 games on the way to a 15-0 start this season, the Bears allowed 89 to the Mountaineers. We don't have to tell you that Baylor may be in "response mode" here as the ATS stats back that fact up. The past two seasons the Bears have gone 7-0 SU and 6-0 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more! Baylor has won three straight games against the Wildcats and their last loss came by just 2 points at Kansas State. That said, with the line move here to a +2.5, we are getting even more line value with the Bears in this one. Baylor has played a tougher schedule than the Wildcats so far this season and, when Kansas State has stepped up (in terms of level of competition) they have failed this season. All the Cats straight-up wins have come in either non-lined games or games where their line was at least -6. The Wildcats have been a dog OR fave of 3 points or less 3 times and they went 0-3 SU in those games. Here Kansas State is catching Baylor at quite possibly the worst time as you know the Bears are going to bring their "A game" after what just happened in Morgantown earlier this week. The past two seasons Kansas State went 3-8 ATS when facing a team with a winning record in a game that was past the midway point (15 game mark) of the season. The Cats get exposed again here. 10* BAYLOR |
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01-13-17 | Hornets v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET Friday - The Sixers are "feeling it" right now with wins in 4 of their last 5 games and, on Friday, they are hosting a Hornets team that has lost 5 of its last 6 games! The 76'ers enter this game on an overall 5-0 ATS run and Charlotte is just 1-7 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. In a road game where the posted total is in a range of 205 to 209.5 points, the Hornets have gone 6-14 SU and 6-13-1 ATS the past 3 seasons combined. Even though Philadelphia is off of an outright win as a dog (beat Knicks and New York was the small fave), don't look for Philly to fall flat here. In fact, the 76'ers are 6-3 ATS when coming off of an upset win as an underdog this season. The Sixers, off of many consecutive rough seasons, still "have a ways to go" of course but, with each win, their confidence is growing. Also, Philly is playing this game with revenge on their minds as they lost at Charlotte earlier this season and the 76'ers are hungry to get some payback as the Hornets have won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these teams. At home and playing loose and confident, the Sixers are going to be tough for the slumping Hornets to get past. 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA plus the points early Friday evening |
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01-12-17 | SMU +6 v. Cincinnati | Top | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach CBB Game #553 Thursday 10* Top Play SMU Mustangs (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 9 ET - Great line value here with the underdog. The Mustangs have revenge from losing to the Bearcats when these teams last met in March. Both teams have been strong early this season but SMU is 6-2 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record while Cincinnati has gone only 3-4 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Bearcats have an ugly long-term mark of 10-22 ATS! The last 4 games between these teams have been decided by an average of 5.8 points per game. This game is projected to be a hard-fought low-scoring battle and Cincy is an ugly 18-29 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 120s. The Mustangs are a solid 30-18 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 120s. Overall, in all games with a total posted between 120 and 129.5 points the last 3 seasons, SMU has gone an incredible 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS! The Bearcats are ranked and they are at home so they are they popular choice here but the Mustangs have a great shot at the upset here and I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered. SMU has won 10 straight games and allowed only 54.8 points per game in those 10 games. 10* SMU |
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01-12-17 | Pelicans v. Nets +5 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:35 ET Thursday - Pelicans star center Anthony Davis hurt his hip late in the win at New York Monday. Even if he plays tonight (didn't do much at all in practice yesterday), Davis is not likely to be as effective as he has been. Also, his history against the Nets is not that impressive anyway with only 18 points per game in his 6 games. While New Orleans has a definite health concern here, Brooklyn is expected to get healthier as Trevor Booker (the Nets leading rebounder) is expected back tonight. The Nets have been a disappointment this season but this is a good spot for them to get back on track with the Pelicans off of a big road win and with Davis now hurting. The Pelicans had lost 3 straight prior to that win and that was just their 5th win in 18 road games this season! Even though New Orleans comes into this game off of two days rest, they are only 2-6 SU in that situation this season. The Nets had won 3 of 4 home games (with the lone loss to Golden State) in a stretch from December 7th to the 26th. Since then they have lost 4 straight at home but the losses included defeats against Utah, Atlanta, and Cleveland. Here they are facing a much less formidable foe and they were 7-8 at home this season before losing 4 straight. With road wins few and far between for the Pelicans and with the Nets ultra hungry to get back into the win column, this is the perfect spot to back the home dog getting generous points. 10* BROOKLYN |
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01-11-17 | LSU +10.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 62-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #751 Wednesday - 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 8:30 PM ET - Not only is this a revenge game for LSU, it certainly is anything but "normal" revenge. The Tigers lost to Texas A & M in the SEC Tourney by a final score of 71 to 38 last spring. The Aggies, in that game, held LSU to a season-low in points and also  a season-low in field goals made (13). Not only that but it also marked the fewest points scored by a team in any major conference for the entire season. You can bet that LSU got caught looking ahead to this revenge game in their poor effort at home against Mississippi State Saturday. The Tigers are only 9-5 this season but they will bring a much stronger effort on defense here after what happened against the Bulldogs Saturday and also after the way they played against the Aggies in the SEC Tourney. Keep in mind that the Tigers did beat A & M when they faced them at LSU last season and now it's time for a little "road payback". Of course a big key here is that the Aggies certainly aren't the level of team they were last season. Texas A & M is winless so far in the SEC and all 3 losses have come by double digits. Now they're being asked to win by double digits against a hungry, revenge-minded underdog and I just don't see that happening here. The Aggies are only 2-6 SU (and 1-6 ATS) in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Tigers are 12-4 SU (and 10-5 ATS) the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a loss in SEC action. LSU is also 4-1 SU and ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Look for the Tigers to get back on track in a big way here and, if they do fall short, it will be single digits. They are highly motivated for this one. 10* Top Play LSU |
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01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7.5 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET Tuesday - With the Hawks having won six straight and the Nets having lost six straight, this is definitely a contrarian choice. Of course we are already getting extra line value here as a result. Atlanta was a low as a 6-point favorite and the line is already up to a 7.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The Nets are coached by Kenny Atkinson and he was an assistant with the Hawks for 4 seasons before coming to Brooklyn this season. As a result, he certainly knows a thing or two about the Xs and Os that Atlanta will employ in this match-up. This game means a lot more to the Nets than the Hawks. It is difficult for Atlanta not to look past the 8-28 Nets as they have a much bigger game (home versus Boston) on deck. That said, the Nets are likely to step up and surprise some people in this one! Brooklyn has been playing better on the defensive end as they have held their opponents to 41.5% field goal shooting in their last 3 home games. Opponents did include Utah and Cleveland! Even though Atlanta has won 6 straight, 4 of the 6 wins have come by 7 points or less. The Hawks have stayed under the total in 3 straight games and, when that has been the case this season, they have gone 2-5 ATS (and 1-6 SU) in their next game! In other words don't be surprised if the Nets gets the upset. However, I am certainly grabbing the points. The Nets are 3-1 ATS this season as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. 10* Top Play BROOKLYN |
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01-07-17 | St. John's +14 v. Xavier | Top | 82-97 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #763 Saturday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) @ Xavier Musketeers @ 2:30 ET - The Red Storm are coming off of an awful season and, as a result, we're still getting line value with them early this season. They've added some size and length inside which certainly has improved the interior defense. In fact, on the season, the Johnnies are allowing the same field goal percentage (42%) as the Musketeers so this shows how far they've come. Xavier lost some of their "length" from last year's team and this has impacted their defense. Don't get me wrong, the Musketeers are certainly still the superior team in comparison with St John's but, what we're seeing here is that the gap between these teams has truly narrowed. That said, the Red Storm also have toughened up thanks to some tough early season road games and tournament battles with teams like Michigan State and Virginia Commonwealth. The Red Storm already have an impressive win over Syracuse and upset win over Butler on their resume this season. The fact that St John's just lost their most recent game (hosting Creighton) by 13 points is helping lead to additional line value here. Even as bad as the Johnnies were last year they lost their two games with Xavier by 8 points or less. The prior year St John's actually won both games with the Musketeers. They are undervalued here and Xavier is on a 1-5 ATS run as a home fave in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. The Red Storm have gone 4-0 ATS on the road this season and are a long term 16-6 ATS in road games where the total is between 145 and 149.5 points. More of the same Saturday. 10* ST JOHN'S plus the big points |
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01-05-17 | Texas-San Antonio -2 v. Southern Miss | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
CUSA Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #741 Thursday - 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ 8 ET - Most will look at this game and just say it's plain ugly and want to stay away. However, I see great opportunity here with a low number on an improving team that is building up in confidence under a new coach with a new system. Steven Henson, a Lon Kruger protege, has done a great job already with the Roadrunners and his team is now going to be playing their 15th game of the season and they are at the point where they have bought into his systems and defense has improved as a result. UTSA has won 3 straight games and 4 of its last 5. Winning, especially notching victory in their conference opener against UTEP, has done wonders for the confidence of this Roadrunners team and they are ready to go and get an elusive road win. I am well aware of the fact that UTSA hasn't won on the road yet this season but they are facing a Southern Mississippi program that is still trying to find its footing after the scandal that has left them on probation until 2020. This team has only won 3 games this season and those were all non-lined games (which shows you how weak the opposition was). The Golden Eagles are 0-9 SU in lined games this season and here we have a very small line on this game so the SU winner is likely to get the cash and I look for UTSA to get the big road win they are so hungry for. Coach Henson has won this team over and they head to Hattiesburg, Miss. with plenty of confidence in tow. The Runners have held their last 3 opponents to 38.4% from the field and just 63.3 points per game. The Golden Eagles have averaged just 56.6 points per game in their last 12 games and they come into this game having lost 9 straight. UTSA's Gino Littles has combined with Giovanni De Nicolao to give the Roadrunners a solid 1-2 punch at point guard because both players have proved very capable of running the offense with precision. I am well aware of the fact that the Runners 2nd leading scorer, Nick Billingsley, did not make this road trip (academics) but senior guard JR Harris is about to return from a leg injury. Harris could be back as soon as tonight and just the fact that UTSA's leading returning scorer from last year is almost back and the team has won three straight has got the Roadrunners believing they can go and take down this road win. The Golden Eagles were projected by most to finish dead last in CUSA this season and Southern Miss is certainly the perfect spot for the Runners to notch that highly sought-after road win. Look for the Eagles to drop to 0-4 SU and ATS in home lined games this season. 10* UTSA Roadrunners Thursday |
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01-05-17 | Jazz v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET Thursday - With both teams off of losses, this may not seem like such a strong situation (on the surface!) for Toronto. However, when you dig a little deeper there is plenty of reason to be very "bullish" on the Raptors for Thursday night! Utah is off of a loss where they allowed 55.4% shooting from the field and 115 points. This season, when the Jazz are off of a loss where they allowed 111 points or more, they've actually gone 0-3 ATS in their next game. When Utah has allowed an opponent to shoot over 51.1% from the field, the Jazz have also gone 0-3 ATS in their next game. Also, Utah is 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season and that includes 0-3 ATS this season as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Raptors are fully focused on this home game after struggling on their recent road trip. Toronto has another road game coming up before finally settling in for a 4-game homestand so they want to make the most of this game versus the Jazz. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed their opponent to connect at a rate of 51.1% or better from the field. After getting thoroughly embarrassed by the hot shooting of the Spurs in San Antonio Tuesday, the Raptors are going to "bring it" on Thursday night. The Raptors are still 8-4 ATS this season against teams with a winning record while the Jazz are only 6-9 ATS this season. Toronto has won 7 of its last 9 home games. The Jazz had a 4-game losing streak before losing at Boston Tuesday but note that the wins came against Brookyn, Phoenix, Philadelphia, and the Lakers. Those are 4 of the worst teams in the league. Even if George Hill is back for the Jazz tonight, they are running into an angry Raptors team here that will take advantage of their home court edge to get back on track. 10* TORONTO Thursday evening |
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01-03-17 | Arkansas v. Tennessee -1.5 | Top | 82-78 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
SEC Rivalry Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #720 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (-) vs Arkansas Razorbacks @ 6:30 ET - As I wrote in my write-up last Thursday when I rode the Vols to victory over the Aggies, head coach Rick Barnes is in his 2nd season at Tennessee but, though the Volunteers are certainly still rebuilding, they did notch a few victories over SEC rivals like Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt last season. Though not a traditional SEC rival like those, Arkansas has been in the SEC long enough to get under the skin of Tennessee fans and this is especially true considering that the Razorbacks have won 4 straight meetings with the Volunteers. Those wins included knocking the Vols out of the SEC Tourney 2 years ago. As for coach Barnes experience against the Hogs, he is certainly not happy about dropping both match-ups with them last season. That said, the Razorbacks absolutely have the full attention of coach Barnes. Keep in mind, this is their SEC home opener and after an embarrassing loss to open up the season (against Chattanooga), coach Barnes has the Vols settled in. They have gone 8-4 since then and the only 4 losses were to teams ranked in the top 20 in the nation. While the Vols have been battle-tested this season, Arkansas only has one win against a major conference foe and most of their early season wins have come against weak competition. In their first SEC game of the season Arkansas already found out just how tough it's going to be as they step up in competition and Florida handled them rather easily and Arky was home for that game! Now they're on the road and facing a hungry team that is looking for revenge and that has been playing well. The "cherry on top" here is that Arkansas has a game at highly ranked Kentucky on deck and just lost to a ranked Florida team that also knocked the Razorbacks out of the SEC Tourney last spring. That said, this could easily be an emotional letdown game for Arky and the Vols will gladly take advantage. The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for plenty of points here as the Vols pull away and win this in a blowout. 10* TENNESSEE |
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01-02-17 | UL-Lafayette -1.5 v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 69-52 | Win | 100 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conf Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #533 Monday - 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) @ Arkansas Little Rock Trojans @ 9 ET Monday - The set-up here is fantastic. The Ragin Cajuns are highly motivated as they have revenge from the Trojans knocking them out of Sun Belt Conference tourney spring. Also, UL-Lafayette comes into this game off of a tight 3-point loss at Arkansas State but previously had won 10 of their last 11 games. They now visit Little Rock looking for revenge and they catch the Trojans off of an OT win @ UL-Monroe. That was the same Warhawks team that Arkansas-Little Rock had beaten last spring in the SBC tourney to make it to the Big Dance. Make no mistake that was an intense hard-fought win for the Trojans Saturday and now they won't be able to match the intensity of the hungry, revenge-minded Ragin Cajuns Monday night. Louisiana is 3-0 ATS as a favorite this season while the Trojans are a long-term 1-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. Both teams lost some key personnel from last year's squads but the Ragin' Cajuns are a pleasant surprise so far this season and they are fired up for this revenge game. The set up is perfect. I'll take it! 10* UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns |
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12-31-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -2.5 | Top | 116-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator Top - Rickenbach NBA 10* Chicago Bulls (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - Both teams were in action yesterday but this back to back spot is offering multiple edges for the Bulls. For one thing, Chicago's game started 4 hours earlier than the Bucks game yesterday. Also, the Bulls are now back home where they've won 10 of 16 games this season while Milwaukee is still on the road where they've lost 9 of 14 this season. The Bulls also have revenge on their minds here and it is "significant" revenge. What I mean by that is that Chicago was thoroughly embarrassed by the Bucks in a home and home set two weeks ago. Not only did the Bulls lose by double digits at Milwaukee but they then lost the rematch in Chicago by an embarrassing score of 95-69. The Bulls attempted 10 more shots from the field than did the Bucks in that game but Chicago "couldn't hit the broad side of a barn" in that game as they shot a ridiculous 30.4% from the field. You can bet (literally!) that the Bulls will respond in a big way Saturday. Chicago is 3-0 ATS this season (and 12-5 ATS the past 3 seasons) when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less! The Bucks are 1-5 (SU and ATS) when playing the 2nd game of a back to back this season. Also, the past three seasons combined, Milwaukee is just 16-31 SU when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. That said, laying the small number with the revenge-minded Bulls is absolutely the way to go here. 10* CHICAGO |
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12-31-16 | Temple +1 v. UCF | Top | 53-77 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Philly's Finest Top - Rickenbach CBB Game #575 Saturday - 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Central Florida Knights @ 4 ET - Central Florida is currently playing with only six scholarship players because they have a number of transfers having to sit out and then they're also dealing with a couple of key injuries. The Knights are currently without Chance McSpadden and leading scorer BJ Taylor. While UCF is off of a win in their AAC opener, they had the benefit of facing a Tulane team that is now 3-10 on the season and easily the worst team in the conference. Temple is 0-1 in conference action after their loss to open up the AAC schedule so they'll be fired up to get back on track here. They shot horribly in that game but, keep in mind, they played Cincinnati and the Bearcats are one of the top teams in the conference. Overall, the Knights have the better record so far this season but the Owls have played the tougher schedule. Also, Temple has gone 4-0 the last 2 seasons against Central Florida. When off of a game where they scored 60 points or less, the Owls have gone 14-5 SU the past three seasons. This line is right around a pick'em so that trend certainly fits here and Temple is fired up after the ugly loss at Cincinnati. This game is expected to be a grind it out, low-scoring affair and UCF is only 2-5 SU in games with a posted total in the 120s while Temple has gone 18-8 SU the past three seasons in such games. Also, in home games with a total in the 120s, Central Florida is 0-3 ATS the past 3 seasons. More of the same here and the hungry Owls get the W over the short-handed Knights. 10* TEMPLE |
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12-30-16 | Nets +8.5 v. Wizards | Top | 95-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
The Game of the Month - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET Friday - The Wizards Bradley Beal injured his ankle in Washington's most recent game and he's listed as doubtful for tonight's game. The Wizards also are in a "flat spot" here as they are off of a back to back wins and have a tough team (Houston) on deck and could easily overlook the Nets here. That is particularly true because Washington has won each of the past 4 meetings between these teams. A flat Wizards team could be upset here as Brooklyn very nearly upset Chicago in their most recent game and the Nets did upset Charlotte in their prior game. Since Christmas, Brooklyn has come out with extra energy and motivation and they're surely going to again be highly motivated here after they "let one slip away" in their two point loss to the Bulls Wednesday plus the Nets have the revenge angle in their favor here. That is significant here because Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Wizards, as a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, are on a 7-11 ATS run. 10* BROOKLYN |
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12-28-16 | Iowa +13.5 v. Purdue | Top | 67-89 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #755 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 8:30 ET - Many of you will recall that I used Iowa against Iowa State about 3 weeks ago in a game where nobody wanted the Hawkeyes as certainly it was the Cyclones that "made sense" in that match-up. The same key aspect in that game applies in this one as well. Even though Iowa is likely to have a "down year" and not be the team they've been in recent seasons, this is still an in-state rivalry game and there is no doubt that the Hawkeyes are going to bring their "A game" in this one. Iowa certainly has been playing solid defense of late and that has helped lead the way to a 5-game winning streak and 4-0-1 ATS run. The Hawkeyes have held 4 of their last 5 opponents (including Iowa State!) under 36% from the field. While I do expect Purdue to get revenge here (they lost both match-ups last season), I do not expect the Boilermakers to win by a sizable margin. With this line having jumped from 11.5 to 13.5 this morning, it has made this situation even stronger in favor of the big road dog. Purdue's only challenging games this season (where they weren't a double digit fave or it was not a non-lined game) have seen the Boilermakers go just 1-2 with a 5-point win over Notre Dame and losses to Louisville and Villanova. Now, of course, I am not saying that the Hawkeyes are on par with those teams but the point is that this is a quality Big Ten basketball program that is going to bring a huge effort and that will very likely lead to this one playing out to a similar margin (5 points) seen in the Fighting Irish game. By the way, the Boilermakers did allow at least 48% from the field in all 3 of those games. The Hawkeyes have really stepped up their defensive efforts recently (spurred on by the win over Cyclones) and I look for that trend to continue here. Purdue has a long-term 4-8 ATS mark in games with a posted total in the 150 to 159.5 range. The Hawkeyes enter on a 4-0-1 ATS run and stay hot at the cashiers window tonight! 10* IOWA |
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12-28-16 | Nets +9 v. Bulls | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET Wednesday - Both teams are off of wins but look for the Nets to be the more motivated team here. After all, the Bulls beat a division rival (Indiana) and will be facing the Pacers again on Friday. That said, it is difficult for Chicago to get excited about this game. As for Brooklyn, you better believe they'll be ready. They were thoroughly embarrassed by 30 points AT HOME on Halloween night. When a team takes a beating like that in front of their home fans they don't forget about it. That was a "special" home loss to say the least but the Nets numbers are good even in "non-special" situations. Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge! As for the Bulls, they finally stepped up on defense (against Indiana) Monday and got the win. However, Chicago is 1-2 ATS (and 0-3 SU!) this season when off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less. The Bulls are also known for "playing down" to the level of their competition and have gone 41-58 ATS their last 99 games against teams with a losing record. The Nets want this game. The Bulls are already looking ahead to another match-up with Indiana. Grab the generous points with the hungry big dog here. 10* BROOKLYN |
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12-25-16 | San Francisco +5 v. San Diego State | Top | 48-62 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Tourney Top Play - Rickenbach CBB 10* Top Play San Francisco Dons (+) vs San Diego State Aztecs in Diamond Head Classic @ Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, HI @ 8 ET Sunday - The Dons have certainly exceed expectations early this season and the way they've won their two games in this Diamond Head Classic certainly says a lot about this team. They beat Utah with a strong offensive performance (shot 52.5% and won 89-86) and then beat Illinois State with a huge effort on defense (held Redbirds to 30.3% and won 66-58). San Francisco is now 10-2 on the season and their two losses have come by 6 points or less. That said, getting 5 points with the Dons in the Diamond Head Classic Championship Game is the way to go here. San Francisco has played a similar strength of schedule to that of San Diego State and they are only 7-4 on the season. The Aztecs faced weaker competition in this tourney however as they were a 20 point favorite in one game and also were favored in the other. The Dons were a sizable dog in both of their games in this tournament. The Aztecs were on a 1-5 ATS run before their win Friday and the losses of Winston Shepard and Skylar Spencer have been tougher to overcome than most expected. The Aztecs are on a 2-11 ATS run in December games the past three seasons and the Dons are on a 6-1 ATS run in neutral court games the past three seasons. Give me the points with the highly motivated underdog (lost 2 prior meetings with Aztecs) that is surging with confidence right now. 10* SAN FRANCISCOÂ |
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12-25-16 | Bulls +9 v. Spurs | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Christmas Day Top Side - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 5:05 ET - The Spurs have revenge here as they lost at Chicago earlier this month. However, this is a tough spot for San Antonio as they just got back from a West Coast road trip and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Additionally, by virtue of being at home on Christmas Day they have a few more distractions with all the Christmas festivities taking place at this time of year and having had the ability to be home with their families by virtue of being a host on Christmas Day. The last three games between these teams have been decided by an average of 5 points per game with no game decided by more than 8 points. This spread is inflated because the Bulls have struggled recently but I expect them to step up here off of the disappointing loss at Charlotte Friday. Last year on Christmas Day 4 of the 5 dogs got the cash and the lone fave that covered barely got the cash. It is difficult for teams to blow each other out in the difficult setting that is a Christmas Day game. That said, the value is with the underdog again in this one. This will be the Spurs 4th straight Christmas Day game and they've lost each of the prior three while the Bulls have won on Christmas Day each of the last three years. 10* CHICAGO BULLS |
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12-23-16 | Wizards v. Bucks -3 | Top | 96-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game #712 Friday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - This is a perfect set-up. The Bucks have revenge here for a December 10th loss at Washington. The Wizards ended that game on a ridiculous 11-0 run and Milwaukee certainly hasn't forgotten about it. The Bucks are entering this game on a 2-game losing streak but the losses came against Cleveland and Milwaukee played the Cavaliers very tough in both of those games. This is the front end of a home and home between these teams so the Bucks are now fully focused on the Wizards and they catch them off of a big road win at Chicago. That sets this one up nicely and the home team has won each of the past four meetings between these clubs by 5 points or more. Even though Washington has fared surprisingly well this season (3-0 ATS) when off of an upset win as an underdog that is traditionally the type of victory that leaves a team flat in the next game. The Wizards entered this season having gone 9-17 ATS the past two seasons when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Bucks will be the hungrier and more motivated team as they seek revenge tonight. Milwaukee is 11-4 SU and ATS in home games with a posted total of 210 points or more and the odds makers are calling for another high-scoring one here as you can see. I'll gladly lay the small number with the Bucks who have also gone 3-1 SU and ATS this season as home fave of 3 points or less. 10* Top Play MILWAUKEE |
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12-23-16 | Georgia v. Oakland +2 | Top | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #742 Friday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oakland Grizzlies (+) vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Nice situational aspects to this one. Oakland is off of a tough loss to in-state rival Michigan State. The Bulldogs are off of an easy win over in-state rival Georgia Tech. Georgia has had to travel. Oakland has stayed in their home state. The situational advantage is clearly in favor of the Grizzlies here and they also have revenge for a tight loss to Georgia in last year's meeting which also took place in December. The past three seasons combined the Bulldogs are an ugly 5-13 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Long-term that run is an ugly 48-77 ATS with those same parameters so, as you can see, it's no fluke. As for Oakland, the Grizzlies have gone 22-8 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are an underdog. In their games against teams with a winning record, Oakland has gone 27-13 ATS. The Grizzlies have shot surprisingly poor in back to back games that occurred on back to back days. Now, after a day of rest, Oakland will be ready with fresh legs and I look for their hot shooting (in the high 40's with FG % their first 10 games this year) to resume tonight at home. Note that the Bulldogs have been held to 64 points or less in 3 of their 4 games played away from Georgia this season. More of the same here. 10* Top Play OAKLAND |
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12-22-16 | LSU +10 v. Wake Forest | Top | 76-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
CBB Game #531 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 9 ET - This line has gone from 8 to now double digits and the situation is offering exceptional value on the big dog. LSU only lost by 6 points to Wake Forest last season and yes this game is now on the road rather than at home but the fact is that the Tigers were outscored by 18 points on 3 pointers and that was the difference in the game. The Demon Deacons knocked down 8 threes in last season's match-up while LSU was held to an uncharacteristic 2 of 14 performance from three point land. Both teams come into this season's match-up with 8 wins but the Demon Deacons are off of a disheartening loss to Xavier in a game Wake Forest badly wanted. The fact is that Wake Forest is still a young team and that shows a lot of promise for the future but they still have struggled this season in games where they've had a chance to make a statement. They got the cover at Xavier but they lost the other two games both SU and ATS in which they've been dogs this season. Now, of course I realize Wake Forest is not a dog here but the point I am making is that they truly don't have a "signature win" yet this season as they also lost to Villanova and Northwestern. Now certainly LSU has had it's share of issues, including last year's frustrating finish but the fact is this is still a solid SEC program and I am going to challenge Wake Forest to not only win this game but to blow out the Tigers. I just don't see that happening. The Demon Deacons haven't proven capable of dismantling an opponent on the level of LSU yet this season and the Tigers have some added confidence from an 8-2 start this season and I expect them to stay within single digits all the way in this one. Overall, LSU has shot the ball just as well as Wake Forest this season and their defense has been even slightly better than that of the Demon Deacons. LSU is on a long-term run of 19-11 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and now this line has even moved up into double digits! A lot of points expected here and Wake Forest is 9-16 ATS (and 7-18 SU) in games with a posted total in the 150s. The Tigers are in this one all the way. 10* LSU TIGERS |
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12-22-16 | Magic +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 95-106 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - NBA Game #501 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks were down 8 to the Pacers at home on Tuesday and then finished the game on an insane 27-12 run to sneak out a 7 point win as, coincidentally, a 5.5 point favorite at home. New York is in the same point spread range for this one on Thursday and I see value in fading them after their miracle cover over Indiana Tuesday. The Knicks had lost 3 straight prior to that win. Also prior to that victory, 6 of New York's last 10 wins had been decided by 4 points or less. The point is that even when the Knicks do win it is often by the slimmest of margins and they're going to have their hands full with Orlando here. The Magic have won 2 of their last 3 meetings with the Knicks and that includes a visit to New York. However, Orlando enters this game with revenge on their mind after losing their most recent visit to New York - in February. The Magic are off of a confidence-boosting win at Miami Tuesday and that outright upset win brought them to 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games away from home as they truly have been road warriors over the past 5 weeks! The Knicks are on a long-term 13-28 SU run against teams from the Southeast Division and they'll have trouble just winning - let alone covering - in this battle with a motivated underdog. New York is in a bit of a sandwich spot here as they are off of the big comeback win over Indiana and then have a big division rivalry game with Boston on deck for Christmas Day. Great spot for the dangerous dog and I'll take it. 10* Top Play ORLANDO MAGIC |
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12-21-16 | Rockets -6 v. Suns | Top | 125-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Game #711 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - The Rockets are off of a brutally bad beat last night at home against the rival Spurs. Houston led the game by 13 points with under 5 minutes to go and yet still lost the game. Amazingly San Antonio hit 12 of 23 three pointers while Houston hit an insanely bad 6 of 38 three pointers last night. Needless to say the Rockets are ticked off about the loss last night as they know they let one get away that they should have easily won despite the statistical anomaly on three point shooting. Houston is facing the right team to get back on track as the Suns are only 8-20 on the season. Also, only 4 of the 20 losses that Phoenix has had this season have come by less than 6 points. Blowout defeats are normal for the Suns and they're hosting a Rockets team that is 11-3 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Houston is also 11-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, even though this is a back to back spot for Houston, the Rockets have gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The Suns have covered just 3 of their last 12 games! Also, the road teams has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams so home court has meant very little. That said, this is also a revenge game for the Rockets as they lost at home to the Suns in April in their most recent meeting. 10* Top Play HOUSTON |
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12-21-16 | Oakland v. Michigan State -6 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
CBB Game #728 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Oakland (Mich) Grizzlies @ 7 ET - The Grizzlies are 9-2 on the season and the Spartans are only 7-5. However, Michigan State has played a very tough early season schedule while Oakland has played a very weak early season schedule. That is skewing the market in this one and it has led to exceptional value with the Big Ten team who is far too proud to not bring a huge effort tonight against this Horizon League team. This is an in-state match-up and the Spartans have won all 13 meetings the past 20 years. That said, we're getting exceptional line value here with this one dropping all the way down to a -6 on Michigan State. Take a look at the last two meetings as an example of the disparity between these teams in terms of talent level and how that translates to how the games play out on the floor. In last season's meeting the Grizzlies actually led by 13 at the half. However, the Spartans then outscored them by 19 points the rest of the way. In the prior season's meeting Michigan State was up by 13 points at half and then outscored them by another 13 in the 2nd half in the 26 point win. The fact is that, even if one perceives this to be a "down season" for the Spartans, they have dominated the Grizzlies in the past and they don't have to be truly "dominant" for us to get the cash in this one. That has me raising this one to Top Play level. The Spartans are 4-2 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Michigan State will be ready to respond off of a loss to Northeastern Sunday and they have the rest edge over Oakland here as the Grizzlies just did battle with Northeastern yesterday! Plus the Grizzlies have another game on deck before Christmas (versus Georgia Friday) while this is the Spartans only chance (before the Christmas break) to respond off of a disappointing loss. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-20-16 | Creighton -8 v. Arizona State | Top | 96-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
TV Top Play - CBB Game #541 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Creighton Blue Jays (-) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9 ET - Laying 8 on the road against a Pac-12 team with a good reputation may seem a little "scary" on the surface but this is the perfect spot for the Blue Jays. They just survived a scare at home (against Oral Roberts) and snuck out a 1-point victory. Creighton doesn't play again until after Christmas and you can be sure that they learned the lesson in their tight win over Oral Roberts and now will be be prepared to blowout the Sun Devils in this one. Arizona State beat the Blue Jays at Creighton by a bucket last December so this is a revenge game for the road fave here. Creighton is the better team on defense and an inconsistent Sun Devils team went from bad to worse as their starting small forward recently left the team. The Blue Jays only scored 66 points against Oral Roberts Saturday and the only other two times they have been held under 80 points this season they responded with big wins in their next game and scored over 100 points in each contest. This included a big win over another Pac-12 team, Washington State, and that certainly is an indication of what to expect for Creighton tonight at Arizona State. The Blue Jays have covered 5 of 7 this season against teams with a winning record. The Sun Devils have gone an ugly 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. Revenge is on order tonight at Arizona State as the dangerous Blue Jays offense (53.8% from the field, 89.3 points per game, 44.4% from beyond the arc) responds off of a rare, poor performance. 10* Top Play CREIGHTON |
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12-20-16 | Spurs v. Rockets +1 | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout Smash - NBA Game #516 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are off of a huge win over the Pelicans on Sunday on a night in which Tim Duncan's jersey was retired. San Antonio now travels the short distance to face Houston and I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to get past a Rockets team that has its sight set on revenge. The Rockets lost to San Antonio in early November and that was the 4th time in 5 games that the Spurs have defeated Houston. The Rockets will have something to say about that tonight as they come into this game having won 10 straight games and they are fired up about the fact that they haven't defeated the Spurs in Houston since Christmas of last year. The Rockets have played a tougher schedule than San Antonio so far this season and Houston is 9-2 ATS (and 10-1 SU) when playing with revenge this season. Also, the Rockets are 13-1 SU (and 12-2 ATS) when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. I am aware of the Clint Capela injury for Houston but they are so highly motivated for this game and so well-rested (2 days off between games) that they'll make up for the absence of this gritty "hustle" player. The Spurs have covered 4 straight games but they've faced some weak opposition during this stretch and, prior to that, San Antonio had failed to cover 9 of its 13 prior games. The value here is with the home team as the line has now moved the other way to increase the value on a team that has revenge and a 10-game winning streak and home court all on their side! 10* Top Play HOUSTON |
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12-17-16 | Pacers v. Pistons -3.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Never Lost Top Play - NBA Game #704 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons lost at Washington last night but the Wizards simply shot lights out as they hit a ridiculous 57% of their shots including 48% (12 of 25) from beyond the arc. Detroit, even though this is a back to back, is happy to be back home tonight. On the season they are 5-0, 100% ATS was a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Pistons will have extra fire and motivation for this game because they did lose their last home game (by 18 points) to the lowly Sixers so Detroit will bring a huge effort for the home fans tonight. The Pistons are hosting a Pacers team that is only 3-10 ATS on the road this season. The home team has taken each of the last three meetings between these teams and the average margin of victory in the last four meetings has been 13.5 points. I am very comfortable laying the small number with the home team in this one! 10* Top Play DETROIT PISTONS Saturday |
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12-17-16 | Rice +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Month - CBB Game #747 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7 ET - There is no doubt about it that even though these teams are both 8-2 on the season, the Panthers have played the much tougher schedule. However, with winning comes a lot of confidence and the Owls are filled with confidence right now. Keep in mind, this is a Rice team that returned their top five scorers from last season's team plus they brought back Marcus Jackson who had missed all of last season. So, essentially, the Owls brought back 6 top scorers as in the 2014-15 season, Jackson had averaged 14.5 points per game. Even though the Panthers have a decided edge in the frontcourt in this match-up, the weakness of Pittsburgh is that they do have some vulnerability to athletic backcourts and the Owls are certainly 'stacked' in that department! Not only is Rice full of confidence with an 8-2 record, note that their two losses came by a TOTAL of just three points! The Panthers are coming off of a full week off as they have not played since last Saturday when they defeated Penn State. That makes this a tough spot for Pittsburgh because it is tough to just hit the court and be firing on all cylinders after a long layoff and so being asked to win by 10 points or more here is asking a lot! 5 of the Panthers 8 wins this season have come by 8 points or less. They're not known for blowing teams out and lost key personnel from last season's team. Pittsburgh is actually on an ugly 12-23 ATS run in home games and poor 14-30 ATS run as a favorite. The Owls are a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and head coach Mike Rhoades is in his 3rd season now and this team is starting to put it together as many teams often do when in the 3rd campaign of a coaching transition. 10* RICE OWLS plus the points Saturday evening |
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12-16-16 | South Dakota +4 v. Portland | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
Dam City Classic - CBB Game #525 Friday - 10* Top Play South Dakota Coyotes (+) vs Portland Pilots @ Moda Center in Portland, OR @ 8:30 ET - The Pilots returned much of their playing rotation from last season's team but they have a rookie head coach in former NBA player Terry Porter. The Coyotes lost all 5 starters from last year but are a bit of a "hidden gem" as coach Craig Smith (in his 6th season) brought in 3 Division 1 transfers prior to this season. That is a big edge for South Dakota as they brought in Matt Mooney (from Air Force), Carlton Hurst (from Colorado State), and Trey Dickerson (from Iowa). Keep in mind those guys are from much bigger programs than the Summit League that the Coyotes play in and even bigger schools than the West Coast Conference where Portland resides. That said, I am not surprised that South Dakota is already 7-2 ATS this season and I would also not be surprised to see them upset Portland in this game. Even though this game is being played in Portland it is not the Pilots home venue. That said, don't expect the Pilots offense to necessarily light it up here from downtown and they do rely heavily on their three point shooting. The Coyotes thrive in games projected to be higher scoring. In games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range, South Dakota has gone 12-5 ATS the past three seasons while the Pilots have a 4-12 SU record in games with a posted total in that same range over the same time period. Also, both of these teams come in with extra rest and the Coyotes are 4-1 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest. The Pilots are on a 6-12 ATS run when playing with 7 or more days of rest. Also, when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more, Portland has gone 0-2 ATS this season and an ugly 4-13 ATS the past three seasons combined. The Pilots are off of a big win but previously had lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Coyotes come into this game having covered three straight games. Look for them to make it 4 straight as they are playing very well (and with confidence) under coach Smith who just celebrated his birthday with the team and now this will be the proverbial "icing on the cake" here. 10* SOUTH DAKOTA Friday night |
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12-16-16 | Lakers v. 76ers -1 | Top | 100-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Blowout Rout - NBA Game #516 Friday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 ET - The Lakers have lost (and failed to cover!) all 8 of their games so far this month. There is no reason for that to change here. Yes, it is "only" the Sixers Friday night so, on the surface, it looks like this would be an ideal spot for the Lakers to snap their streak. However, the Sixers were playing quite well until coming up just short of the cover Wednesday. Admittedly, the 76'ers didn't deserve to cover that game as their defense allowed the Raptors to hit 47.1% from the field. However, prior to that ATS loss, the Sixers had covered 3 straight games and held all 4 opponents under 39.4% from the field. Unlike Philadelphia, Los Angeles has not been playing good defense. Prior to holding Brooklyn to 38.4% from the field on Wednesday, the Lakers had allowed their last 7 opponents to average a combined 50% from the field. It is no wonder that LA has been struggling badly and the home team did win both match-ups between these teams last year and the Sixers are hungry. Philly had enjoyed back to back road wins before the home loss to Toronto so they look to make up for that defeat Friday night. Philadelphia is 9-5 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. Also, the Sixers have gone 6-3 ATS against teams with a losing record this season. The Lakers have played 4 games against Atlantic Division opponents this season and they have not gotten the cash in a single game. Look for that trend to continue tonight. The Lakers are playing their 4th game in 6 nights while the Sixers are playing just their 3rd game in 8 nights. The fresh legs get the cash on their home floor tonight. 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA 76'ers Friday night |
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12-13-16 | Wolves v. Bulls -7 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN Best Bet 10* - NBA Game #706 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Bulls have had two full off days leading into this game so they are rested and ready physically. They lost both match-ups with the Timberwolves last season so they certainly are ready psychologically as well. The motivation is there, the fresh legs are there, and Minnesota is struggling badly. Not only are the T-wolves just 6-18 on the season, they have lost 8 of their last 9 games heading into this one. Also, Minnesota is on a 6-31 SU (11-26 ATS) run in December games. They're facing a Bulls team that is off of back to back wins but just had their first non-covering win of the season. Chicago's first 12 wins this season all were covers as well but they were a big home favorite versus Miami on Saturday and fell short of the cover. The Bulls are 22-8 SU (and 19-11 ATS) the past 3 seasons when they are playing with 2 days of rest between games. They have won and covered in this situation both times this year (2-0 SU and ATS) and Minnesota has gone 0-3 (SU and ATS) in road games with a posted total between 205 and 209.5 points this season. So here were are testing a combined 5-0, 100% ATS spot this season and certainly the situational factors are there for a Bulls blowout win. 10* Top Play CHICAGO BULLS Monday evening |
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12-13-16 | Temple +16.5 v. Villanova | Top | 57-78 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
PA Insider 10* - CBB Game #713 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - This is one of those Big Five games in Philly and this one is being played on the Main Line as Villanova does battle with Temple. With those not from the area or not familiar with the "Big Five" series it certainly is a big deal in the Philadelphia area. This is why, even though Villanova is currently ranked #1 in the nation and also are the reigning NCAA Champs, I have no qualms about backing the Owls in this spot. Temple won't be intimidated all in this big game and the points are simply too much here as I expect the Owls to be able to stay within single digits throughout this game. They recently welcomed back senior guard Josh Brown and he's gradually been increasing his minutes (and his overall production) in each of the four games since returning from the injury to his left Achilles. In his absence, Shizz Alston has done a great job with the ball handling and that has made the rotation even deeper in the backcourt. Daniel Dingle is a solid swingman who is a great defender and then big man Obi Enechionyia is having a huge season with big scoring (including knocking down big threes) and his rebounding and shot blocking. The point is that, while Temple is certainly not on the same level as Villanova (of course!), they definitely are a well-rounded team with good inside-out balance and they are very well coached under Fran Dunphy who is in the 28th year of his career. The Owls play solid defense and they also (just like Villanova) are knocking down 39% of their threes so far this season. The 3-ball also helps big dogs to "hang around" in a game and I like the balanced attack of Temple to make them a dangerous dog in this one. The Owls are already 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season and they've gone 9-2 ATS the last 3 seasons combined in their games against teams that are averaging 77 points or more per game. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite of 14 points or more. 10* Top Play TEMPLE OWLS Tuesday evening |
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12-12-16 | South Carolina v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - CBB Game #520 Monday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 9 ET - The Gamecocks rallied, as teams often do, in their first game without star player, forward Sindarius Thornwell, who is current suspended. South Carolina "rallied the troops" and everyone was anxious to "pick up the slack" and the Gamecocks won 70-54 in their first game without him. That brings South Carolina to a perfect 8-0 on the season. However, that win came against Florida International and it was over a week ago. Not only could there be some "rust" here for the Gamecocks, they also are facing a much tougher foe in what will be just their 2nd game without Thornwell. Seton Hall is a solid 7-2 on the season and the Pirates brought most everybody back from the team that knocked off Villanova in the Big East tourney last spring. The point is that this is a solid Big East team that also, unlike South Carolina, has all hands on deck! Seton Hall will be playing their 4th game so far this month so, unlike the Gamecocks, there will be no rust for the Pirates. Seton Hall wrapped up a Hawaii trip on Wednesday so they've had ample time to come back and adjust their body clocks as they've had the ideal amount of rest leading into this game. Enough time off to be rested but not so much that they're not game-ready! The Pirates are amped up about an opportunity to knock off a ranked, undefeated foe. They'll be the hungrier team tonight in a game where South Carolina will really miss Thornwell. The Gamecocks have a long-term mark of 5-14 ATS when playing with 7 or more days of rest. The Pirates are 13-3 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. 10* Top Play SETON HALL PIRATES Monday night |
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12-12-16 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - NBA Game #504 Monday - 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors have been a "covering machine" this season and, at some point, there is sure to be a correction. However, this is not likely to be that point. Toronto has had two full off days leading into this one and they have the "lowly" Sixers on deck. The Raptors are 4-1 SU and ATS when playing with two days of rest this season. The Bucks situation is quite different as they are off of a loss at Washington that was a hard fought defeat and Milwaukee will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Also, on deck for the Bucks is a home and home set with the Bulls and Chicago is a key division rival of Milwaukee. The Bucks are 25-65 SU in their last 90 games against teams with a winning record and this line has crept down to a 7.5 and, of course, the lower it gets the more likely any SU win will also be an ATS win. Many of the Raptors recent wins have been blowout wins so I am very comfortable stepping in at this level. Toronto's last 8 wins have come by an average margin of victory of 20 points per game! Most of the Bucks losses this season have been close but the rested Raptors have the fresh legs in this one and 8 of the Raptors 9 home wins this season have come by at least 9 points. Lay it! 10* Top Play TORONTO RAPTORS early Monday evening |
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12-10-16 | Connecticut v. Ohio State -9 | Top | 60-64 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Top Play Smash - CBB Game #564 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6 ET - Big revenge game for OSU as they got embarrassed in a 20-point loss to Connecticut last season. The Huskies simply shot "lights out" in that game and that was the difference as the Buckeyes only made 35.7% of their shots and UConn topped 60% which, of course, is very unusual. The set up for this game Saturday is perfect because there is much more to it than just the revenge angle. The Buckeyes are off of an embarrassing home loss to Florida Atlantic. Ohio State lost that game by a bucket and they were a 20-point favorite in the game! The Buckeyes were clearly looking ahead to this game. As for the Huskies, they are off of a huge upset win over Syracuse. That makes Connecticut ripe for a letdown here and that was the 2nd straight game that the Huskies have shot poorly and have been held under 53 points. Both of these clubs are solid defensively but Ohio State is the much better team on offense with better shooters and better overall point production. In road games with a posted total of 130 to 134.5 points, the Huskies have gone 5-18 ATS. With the low total posted on this game you can see that the odds maker are expecting a bit of a grudge match here and Connecticut simply won't be able to keep up with Ohio State on the score board. The Buckeyes are 7-1 SU (and 46-7 SU long-term) in home games with a posted total in a range of 130 to 134.5 points and OSU is fired up for revenge here. That said, I am forecasting not only the SU win but a big, dominating revenge win by double digits. 10* Top Play OHIO STATE BUCKEYES for a Smash of the spread in this one early Saturday evening |
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12-09-16 | Magic +7 v. Hornets | Top | 88-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Southeast Divisional Game of the Month - NBA Game #701 Friday - 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Magic are off of one of the worst performances as they lost by 30 points at Boston. That is the kind of performance that absolutely fires up a team for their next game and, keep in mind, Orlando had been playing very competitive basketball prior to the beatdown at the hands of the Celtics. The Magic had won and covered 4 of their 5 prior games. Also, looking further back, Orlando had gone 6-5 in their 11 prior games and the average margin of defeat in the 5 losses was just 4.2 points. The fact is that Orlando had been in every game their past 11 and I fully expect them to be in this one too after the embarrassing blowout loss at Boston. Note that Orlando is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season in road games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points. Also, the Magic failed to cover in their last visit to Charlotte but, prior to that, Orlando had covered each of their prior visits. This has been a road-dominated series at the betting window with the road team getting the cash 6 of the last 8 games. The Hornets are off of a double digit win but they pulled away late for the 10 point victory and the final score certainly is deceiving in terms of how the game truly played out. Charlotte is now off of back to back wins and covers but previously had covered only 2 of their 9 prior games. The Hornets only sank 34% of their shots against Detroit Wednesday. As a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, Charlotte has gone just 5-8 ATS and they've also covered just 3 of 8 games against teams with a losing record this season. 10* Top Play ORLANDO MAGIC plus the points Friday |
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12-08-16 | Spurs v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
RARE TNT Top - NBA Game #512 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - The Spurs still get a ton of respect from the odds makers and the betting markets and are certainly still one of the top teams in the NBA. However, this team is clearly not the same team since Tim Duncan retired and Manu Ginoboli and Tony Parker arent' getting any younger. Also, coach Gregg Popovich has lost a little bit of his "fire" since Duncan retired and the result is that the Spurs just aren't dominating the way they use to. In fact their having to scratch and claw their way to many of their wins and now they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. The home team has swept the season series between the Bulls and Spurs each of the last two years and Chicago comes into this game fired up off of 3 straight SU and ATS losses. This was preceded by an 8-2 ATS run for the Bulls. For the Spurs, they are off of a rare big win (by 14 at Minnesota) Tuesday as they had previously gone just 3-8 ATS in their 11 prior games. With San Antonio off of a big double digit win and Chicago off of three straight losses, look for the Bulls to be the hungrier team here. Chicago has gone 9-4 SU (and 10-3 ATS) the last 3 seasons when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. 10* Top Play CHICAGO BULLS plus the points Thursday night |
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12-07-16 | Nuggets -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 111-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation - NBA Game #705 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Nets have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The key thing about Brooklyn is they often don't just lose, they get annihilated. 7 of the Nets 10 losses have come by a margin of at least 17 points which is actually quite incredible when you think about it. They're just not even in a lot of their games. All 10 of the losses during this 1-10 stretch have come by at least 5 points which is what makes Denver even a more attractive play here since they are a short favorite of less than 5 points at the time of this posting. The Nuggets have done well as travelers for their backers as Denver is 8-2 ATS away from home this season! Also, the Nuggets have fared particularly well in games that are projected to be high-scoring as they are 4-0 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 210 or more. This total is well above that as the Nets are one of the worst defensive clubs in the league. Denver is also a perfect 4-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Nuggets results of late don't look that great but keep in mind that was against some tough opponents. They have taken care of business against weaker foes like recent road games at Philadelphia and Phoenix. The last key here to this pick is that the Nets have swept the home and home season series from the Nuggets each of the past two seasons and last year's two Brooklyn wins each came by only a single point. Teams don't forget tight losses like that and that ensures proper focus from the road fave here and a big revenge win can be expected. 10* Top Play DENVER NUGGETS minus the short number Wednesday evening |
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12-06-16 | Old Dominion +10.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 39-51 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Contrarian Top Play - CBB Game #527 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - Old Dominion is known for playing solid defense and crashing the boards. Those two variables tend to make the Monarchs a dangerous dog and, in this case, Old Dominion is the benefactor of too many points. The Rams are off of a loss at Providence Saturday and that is inflating this line as Rhode Island is in a bounce back spot here. The problem with the "bounce back" angle on the Rams here is the fact that the Friars are a huge rival of theirs and to again lose (and it was a tight loss) to their in-state rival is a bitter pill to swallow. Rhode Island will be doing good just to muster enough energy just to win this game, let alone cover it, after they truly "gave it their all" Saturday at Providence. Keep in mind the Rams are on a 1-5 ATS run as they've only gone 3-3 SU in their last 6 games and, by the way, Rhode Island did not have a single win by more than 9 points in this stretch and the average margin of those 6 games was just 6 points. Old Dominion is allowing only 58.6 points per game this season and their two losses were to LSU and Louisville. Both defeats came by only 6 points and they were a huge dog against the Cardinals. The Monarchs won't be intimidated here - just like they weren't against Louisville) and Rhode Island is not only off of the tough loss to the Friars, they also have a solid 7-1 Houston team on deck. This is a definite flat spot in the schedule for the Rams. Yes, I know Old Dominion beat Rhode Island last year so there is a revenge factor here for the Rams but, trust me, Saturday's game meant a ton to Rhode Island and they are a deflated team which makes it difficult to cover a big spread. Even if the Rams win here it will likely be a tight win. Look for Rhode Island to drop to 4-10 ATS in Tuesday games while the Monarchs improve to a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog. 10* Top Play OLD DOMINION MONARCHS plus the big points Tuesday. |
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12-03-16 | Bulls -3 v. Mavs | Top | 82-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Saturday - 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:35 ET - This line went all the way from an opener of -7 down to as low as a -3 and this is offering tremendous line value on the Bulls. Yes I know Chicago is off of a big win at Cleveland and this is a back to back spot. However, they did lose BOTH games with the Mavericks last season so a little payback is on order tonight. Even though Wade is out for the Bulls, the Mavs are still without Nowitzki. Also, we're still talking about a Dallas team that is only 3-15 on the season and only 1 of their 18 games has been decided by less than 5 points! In other words, the odds are certainly in our favor that the Bulls not only win this game but also win it by 5 points or more. Chicago is currently on a red hot 8-2 ATS run and they've covered 2 of 3 this season when off of an upset win as an underdog while Dallas is 2-5 ATS when off of a loss by double digits. In other words, a Mavericks bounce back here is unlikely and that is why I expect the Bulls to get their revenge even though they are off of the big win over the Cavs. 10* Top Play CHICAGO BULLS |
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12-03-16 | Akron +14.5 v. Creighton | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Top Ten Top Play - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Saturday - 10* Top Play Akron Zips (+) @ Creighton Blue Jays @ 8 ET - The Blue Jays are off to such a fantastic start (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, 46.5% 3-pointers) that the odds makers have had to over-adjust. The result is fantastic line value in this spot. Akron certainly has played a weaker schedule than has Creighton. However, the Zips were one of the top teams in the MAC last season and they will be again this season. We are getting extra line value here because, even though Akron is 6-1 SU on the season they are only 1-3 ATS. The fact is that the Zips match up very well with the Blue Jays and that means this game is likely to play out much closer than many are expecting. Akron, like Creighton, loves the 3-ball. The Zips, like the Blue Jays have great size in the paint. Also, both teams have deep rotations. The result will be a very evenly matched contest and the kicker is that Creighton has a big game with in-state rival Nebraska on deck while Akron has an unexciting match-up with Coppin State up next. The result will be the Zips definitely "leaving it all on the floor" tonight and they're excited about this opportunity against a Top Ten and I expect them to make the most of it. Creighton snuck out a cover over Buffalo Tuesday but they face a much tougher MAC team in this match-up and the Blue Jays are simply over-priced here. 10* Top Play AKRON ZIPS |
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