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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-02-19 | Mavs +2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 122-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Perfect set-up here. The Mavericks are off an ugly loss by 20 points at Oklahoma City Monday. The Hornets are off a huge win by 25 points versus Orlando Monday. Dallas is a fantastic 36-16 ATS (including 6-1 this season!) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Charlotte is an ugly 4-8 SU (and they're laying points here!) when off a victory by a double digit margin. Also, the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and, long-term the Mavs are 10-3 ATS (and SU!) in games played at Charlotte. The Mavericks were on a 5-0 ATS run before the loss to the Thunder. The Hornets were on a 2-7 ATS run before the win over the Magic. Grab the points here but I don't expect to need them. 10* DALLAS |
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01-02-19 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia +4 | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #794 Wednesday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Mountaineers are without Sagaba Konate. However, the emergence of 6'10 Derek Culver is not being given enough of a look by the betting markets as early support is on the Red Raiders here. The fact is that Culver, due to suspension, got to the floor for the first time two games ago. Tonight's game, being his 3rd game back and also at home in a key match-up, is likely to see him play his best game yet. I love the fact that the Red Raiders are ranked quite high and have an 11-1 record with their only loss to Duke because it is masking the fact that, other than the loss to the Blue Devils, Texas Tech has played a rather weak schedule. The fact is that West Virginia started the season ranked but is now unranked and only 8-4 on the season but they've played a tougher schedule than Texas Tech has. If this game was in Lubbock it would be a different story but I like West Virginia at home here. Both teams are rather inexperienced this season and have had to reload. Of course when both teams are young it helps to be on your home floor. Also West Virginia is 3-2 SU in their last 5 meetings with the Red Raiders and the Mountaineers two defeats EACH came by just ONE point. Certainly, though I expect an outright upset here, having the points on our side could also prove very valuable. WVU has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games but that is a situation that has seen them go 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in recent seasons. The Mountaineers are on a 36-6 SU run in home games. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s while the Mountaineers are 7-2 SU their last 9 games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, the Red Raiders are just 5-15 SU in road games and this is their first true road game of the season. All of the previous Texas Tech games this season have been at home or at a neutral site. They are over-rated in my opinion and I fully expect coach Huggins to have his Mountaineers VERY ready for this Big 12 opener at home! Grab the points. 10* WEST VIRGINIA |
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12-31-18 | Magic +7.5 v. Hornets | Top | 100-125 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #563 Monday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 6:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Magic there are four important things to note here that will render that a mute point. Yesterday's game was a day game so that helps in terms of travel and rest. Flight time from Orlando to Charlotte is less than two hours so there was not significant travel involved. The Magic are much improved on defense this season and are entering this game off back to back wins and looking to close 2018 strong. Orlando has NOT forgotten about one of their most embarrassing losses of the season and that 32 point beatdown happened at HOME early this season which was the most recent time the Magic faced the Hornets. This is Orlando's first opportunity at revenge since that game and they'll make the most of it. The Magic are 6-3 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Orlando is 10-4 ATS in road games. Charlotte is actually 6-11 ATS in games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Hornets enter this game on an overall 4-10 ATS run their last 14 games. Look for the Magic to improve to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and I would not be surprised if their SU winning streak reaches 3 games as they are playing with a lot of confidence right now after home wins versus Toronto and Detroit. Looking for the upset but will gladly grab the big points as added insurance in this one. 10* ORLANDO |
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12-31-18 | Creighton +1.5 v. Providence | Top | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #753 Monday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ Providence Friars @ 4 ET - The betting markets will love Providence in basically a "pick'em" game on their home floor. As per usual I am going contrarian here with Creighton and, as per usual, it is not without plenty of good reasoning. The Bluejays seek revenge for getting knocked out of the Big East tournament in March in overtime! It is time for payback here and this is the game where the Friars loss of 2nd leading scorer AJ Reeves to injury will prove significant. Though it is true Providence has won 3 straight since the foot injury for Reeves, teams need all the firepower they can get when facing a team with the offensive prowess the likes of Creighton. The Bluejays are averaging 85 points per game this season and knocking down 45% of their three-pointers! I also like the fact that, long-term, the Friars are just 37-51 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s and Providence's SU record in those game is an ugly 33-55! Creighton is a long-term 41-21 SU in games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. Though they've struggled away from home in their past two games they did perform very well in late November in a neutral court tournament and they kick things up a notch for the revenge win here as the Bluejays roll to a road rout at Providence on Monday. 10* CREIGHTON |
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12-28-18 | Nets +4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 87-100 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Friday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Common thinking will be to back Charlotte in this chance at revenge for the loss at Brooklyn on Wednesday. As long-time followers know, my way of thinking is anything but common. Known for being contrarian, I am again going to contrary to the masses here and backing the Nets but is certainly not without reason. The Hornets are on a 3-9 ATS run their last dozen games. Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last 10 games. Charlotte actually has a losing SU record this season when playing with revenge and the past two seasons went a combined 34-56 SU when playing with revenge. The fact is that revenge is one of the most over-played angles in sports betting and, in this case, I am going against the grain and backing the Nets on the road. Brooklyn is a red hot team and is on a 29-14 ATS run long-term against Central Division opponents. Charlotte has gone cold and is on a 12-33 ATS run long-term versus Atlantic Division opponents. The Hornets are also just 5-10 ATS when playing against teams with a losing record this season. The Nets are 13-7 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* BROOKLYN |
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12-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +7.5 v. Wright State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Friday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Wright State Raiders @ 7 ET - Though the Flames are allowing more points per game than the Raiders this season that has to with pace rather than defensive efficiency. In fact, Illinois-Chicago is allowing only 44.2% from the field including 35.1% from 3-point land while Wright State is allowing 46.3% from the field including 40.7% from beyond the arc. Additionally, the Raiders Loudon Love is listed as questionable for this game with an ankle injury. Wright State did win both games last season but the average margin was just 5.5 points per game and I feel UIC has closed the gap between these teams heading into this meeting. Also note that the Flames are the higher-scoring team and also the better shooting team from the field. Illinois-Chicago is 10-4 ATS in Friday games, 9-2 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games, and 18-8 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. Wright State is only 2-4 SU this season against teams that average 77 points or more per game and the Flames fall into that category. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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12-26-18 | Nuggets +3 v. Spurs | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - Of course it looks enticing to play the small home favorite in a match-up like this but I am happy to back the road dog here. Both the Nuggets and Spurs are off losses but Denver is off their worst loss of the season and allowed a season-high in points. Note that they lost a key player to ejection midway in the 3rd quarter of that game and the Nuggets just didn't come ready to play that night. They paid for it and got dominated in the paint on both sides of the floor. Denver will undoubtedly be ready to make up for that effort here. The Nuggets entered that loss to the Clippers having won 11 of their last 13 games both SU and ATS! Also, Denver won the last two meetings with the Spurs last season and the prior loss was just a 2-point defeat at San Antonio. In other words, the 3 points could come in handy here but I am certainly making this play expecting an outright road upset. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU this season against teams with a winning record while the Spurs are just 6-8 SU this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Denver is a long-term 21-10 ATS, including 4-0 ATS the past two seasons, when they are off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. The Nuggets have proven, as shown above, to be the better team in games against winning teams this season. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* DENVER |
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12-25-18 | 76ers +4 v. Celtics | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 5:35 ET - The Celtics are off a win versus Charlotte but previously Boston lost three straight! Also this included back to back losses at home in which the Celtics were completely dominated on the boards by both the Suns and the Bucks. With the rejuvenated and revenge-minded Sixers also fully capable of dominating the rebound department, Boston is likely to again be in trouble here. The Sixers have been on a surge ever since the trade for Jimmy Butler. The 76ers enter this game having won 13 of their last 18 games. Philly is a long-term 25-12 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also 7-1 ATS when a divisional game. Also, the Sixers are 6-3 ATS (including 7-2 SU) when playing with revenge this season! This one has the makings of an upset with the strong motivation factor for Philly (0-1 versus Boston this season after being knocked out of playoffs by Celtics last season). With the Celtics recent slump and Boston a long-term 7-13 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more, I am grabbing the points with the underdog Sixers in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-25-18 | Hawaii +5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 3:30 ET in Diamond Head Classic @ Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, HI - The Rams are off a win and tight cover versus Charlotte but that comes as no surprise as the 49ers are struggling this season and averaging 58.5 points per game. Rhode Island is 0-3 ATS in road games this season. Though this is a tourney game, since they're facing the host of the tourney in this one, it is a road game. Hawaii is 6-2 SU in home games this season including 4-2 ATS in lined home games. Also, long-term the Rainbow Warriors are 13-6 ATS as a home underdog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Hawaii has played well on the defensive end in their last 3 games and they've gone 2-1 SU and ATS. Overall, the Rainbow Warriors have won 3 of their last 4 games SU. The 49ers are 2-3 ATS their last 5 as a favorite but one of those ATS wins coming by just half a point. The home dog definitely offering value in this one. Look for an upset but grab the points with the Rainbow Warriors as they defend (literally) their home court on the final day of this Christmas weekend tourney. 10* HAWAII |
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12-22-18 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 101-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors Kyle Lowry is expected to miss this game and Toronto is in a back to back spot after the win versus Cleveland last night. They've gone 2-2 without Lowry in these 4 games he has missed but they lost both road games! Also, the Raptors are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard tonight since it is a back to back spot and he played 37 minutes last night. Surprisingly Toronto has had success in most of the games Leonard has missed this season but that is unlikely to be the case here. The 76ers are playing this game with double revenge as they have lost both games to the Raptors this season. Those losses came north of the border though and now the Sixers finally get their chance at home. Of course Philly is laying a small number here and that is certainly noteworthy as they are 15-3 SU in home games this season. Also, note that Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS (and SU) this season when off a divisional game. Prior to last night's big win over Cleveland, the Raptors were on a 3-8 ATS slide. Look for those struggles for Toronto at the betting window to resume as the 76ers get payback tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-22-18 | Connecticut v. Villanova -6 | Top | 58-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #608 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 12:30 ET - The Wildcats are in a great value spot here. Villanova is off back to back losses and, while the loss to Penn certainly wasn't expected, there was no shame in falling just short against Kansas last Saturday. In fact, the Cats cover against the Jayhawks brought Villanova to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. For Nova, this is their final game of the calendar year as their next game is January 2nd versus DePaul in Big East action. In other words, you can bank on the Wildcats being ready to put forth a huge effort in this game. They are hungry and they don't want to end 2018 having not won a game since the 8th of December! As for Connecticut, they are off back to back wins but those came as a big favorite against both Drexel and Manhattan. The Huskies have played 4 games this season with a line in single digits and they've gone 1-3 SU and ATS in those 4 games. In other words, UConn has struggled in tougher match-ups and note also that the Huskies are 4-9 ATS in neutral court games. The Wildcats are on a 20-8 ATS run (including 3-0 ATS this season) in neutral court games. Grab the value with the rather small favorite in a spot where they are primed to dominate. 10* VILLANOVA |
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12-21-18 | Pistons +4 v. Hornets | Top | 86-98 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Not only has Detroit lost both match-ups with Charlotte this season, the Pistons also lost their final two match-up with the Hornets last season. Suffice to say, incentive is high for the road dog in this one. The Pistons lost at Charlotte by a single point last week Wednesday and it was on a last second shot too so the memory is certainly fresh. Look for Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond to dominate in the paint in this one for a very hungry Detroit team. The Pistons are off an OT win at Minnesota Wednesday and they are 7-2 SU this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Pistons shot the ball very well against the Timberwolves. Detroit is also 8-4 ATS this season in road games! The Hornets are wrapping up a 10-game homestand and are just 8-17 SU their last 25 when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. Also, Charlotte is on a 2-7 ATS run and are off a double digit win over the Cavaliers in their most recent game. That is noteworthy here as the Hornets are just 3-6 SU this season when off a win by 10 or more points. Give me the underdog here as they actually have a great shot at the outright upset per the above and I'll gladly take the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT |
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12-21-18 | Cal-Irvine v. Butler -8 | Top | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #806 Friday 10* Top Play Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Cal-Irvine Anteaters @ 6:30 ET - With Cal-Irvine at 11-2 on the season and having played a strength of schedule very similar to the 8-3 Bulldogs, many will look at the Anteaters as a big dog value play here. However, a couple of key variables are favoring Butler here. UC-Irvine played Wednesday at Eastern Michigan so they are on short rest here. Also, the Bulldogs recently welcomed Duke transfer Jordan Tucker as he just became eligible. Granted he is not playing huge minutes yet but after scoring 10 points and snaring 7 rebounds in just 12 minutes in Tuesday's game, he certainly is a key asset for Butler to now have available. Butler is known for being a very tough team on their home floor. Also, the Anteaters have been held under 40% from the field in 3 of their last 4 road games. To put that in perspective in this match-up, the Bulldogs come into this game red hot with their shooting. Butler has averaged 80 points per game their last 3 games thanks to hot shooting from the field including from beyond the arc. The Anteaters have been strong defensively this season but the Bulldogs are actually 9-2 (SU and ATS) when facing teams that allow an average of 64 points or less. Not only is UC-Irvine on a 14-21 ATS run against teams with a winning record, it is an 11-27 SU run their last 38! Lay the points and expect a home blowout here. 10* BUTLER |
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12-20-18 | Rockets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #578 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - Huge rest edge for the Heat here as they'll be playing for the first time since Sunday while the Rockets were busy going hard last night to set the NBA record (26) for three pointers last night. Houston now will be on the road and playing for the 3rd tine in 4 days while Miami is playing their 1st game in 4 days. Also, the Heat have revenge here after they got swept by the Rockets last season. Keep in mind Miami did sweep Houston the prior season but now, after the Rockets got their revenge last season, it is the Heat ready to avenge defeat this time around. Also note that Houston is an ugly 2-7 ATS this season when off a non-conference game and also 2-8 ATS when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. As for the Heat, they are a 9-3 ATS in non-conference games this season including a perfect 4-0 ATS against Southwest Division opponents. Also, Miami has held their last two opponents to just 41.5% from the field. Conversely, the Rockets have allowed 53.3% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Look for the Heat to hold the edge defensively tonight and that will be the difference as Houston's shooters cool off on the road. The Rockets, in fact, are just 3-6 SU and ATS in their last 9 road games. More of the same here. 10* MIAMI |
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12-20-18 | Texas Tech +10 v. Duke | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET in New York, NY - The Red Raiders have no chance here! At least that is what the betting markets seem to think and I am happy to fade the masses here. Almighty Duke always gets so much love from bettors but I feel they will fall well short here. Yes the Blue Devils have played the tougher schedule this season and the location of this neutral court game favors Duke but Texas Tech is well-coached and is going to prove to be no push-over. The Red Raiders are playing great defense this season and also are shooting the ball very well on the other end of the court! This line has moved from an opener of 7 all the way up to a 10 and is offering great value on the big dog that, thanks to solid outside shooting, also has a great shot at the backdoor cover here - should that be needed. The Red Raiders are now 15-1 SU in December games the past 3 years. Also, Texas Tech is off to a 10-0 SU start this season that has seen them also go 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Yes, Duke is one of the best teams in the country again, as per usual, but the Red Raiders are playing with a ton of confidence right now and they are a dangerous dog in this spot. The Blue Devils went 1-2 ATS (and SU!) against Big 12 opponents the past two seasons. Duke also is 0-2 ATS this season when playing with one day or less of rest between games and the Red Raiders certainly hold the rest edge here. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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12-16-18 | 76ers -8 v. Cavs | Top | 128-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:35 ET - Situations just don't get much better than this and, yes, I am aware of Jimmy Butler being questionable for this game with a groin injury. The 76ers were a perfect 10-0 at home this season when the Cavaliers visited Philadelphia last month and put an end to that perfection with a dominating road win. The 76ers haven't forgotten that and it is time for payback here. With Philly off rare back to back losses, the hunger factor is even higher for the revenge-minded Sixers here. The last 7 times that the 76ers have been off a loss they've gone 5-2 ATS. Look for a huge road win and cover here. The Cavaliers are off a double digit loss to the Bucks but don't look for a bounce back here! Cleveland is actually an ugly 20-38 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The Sixers are a long-term 31-16 ATS (including 4-1 ATS this season) when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The 76ers are also 32-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-15-18 | Cincinnati v. Mississippi State -3 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #646 Saturday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 8:30 ET - As long-time followers know, I love to go against the grain. That is what my contrarian crusher picks are all about and, in this case, with a line move from -5 to -3 on the Bulldogs, I won't hesitate to step in. Keep in mind, Mississippi State is off an impressive neutral court win over Clemson last week and now they get this game at home against Cincinnati. The Bulldogs have balanced scoring with all 5 scorers averaging in double figures plus they are red hot from three point land. Hot shooting from beyond the arc can sometimes go hold WHEN a team heads on the road or is in an unfamiliar surrounding. As you can see, that should NOT be the case here as this game is at Mississippi State so the Bulldogs should remain RED HOT from outside. Keep in mind this is a revenge game from last season. Though the Bearcats won that game it was at Cincinnati and the Bulldogs were simply done in by poor shooting in the 65-50 loss. Also, gone for Cincy from that team are 3 players who accounted for 49 of the 65 points. All are playing pro ball now with 2 in the NBA and one playing professionally overseas. I also like the coaching edge in the rematch with Ben Howland over Mick Cronin. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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12-13-18 | Morehead State v. Samford -7.5 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Thursday 10* Top Play Samford Bulldogs (-) vs Morehead State Eagles @ 7:30 ET - When I saw this game was coming up I knew I would be involved after what I witnessed Monday with Morehead State. The Eagles were down by 20 at half at Marshall and still down by 21 with under 2 minutes to go. I was holding a Thundering Herd ticket at -13. The game should be over. Inexplicably Morehead State finished the game on an 11-2 run to lose by 12. First off when a team is down that much there is no chance of a comeback and so usually the trailing team wouldn't even get off enough shots to even have a chance to score 11 points! It was one of the most unbelievable losses I have been a part of and I have been wagering for over 25 years now. We'll get payback tonight. In lined games, the Eagles have now been held to 36.2% or less from the field in 4 straight games! They are facing a Samford team that plays much better defense than they do. Morehead State is allowing 46.9% from the field this season while the Bulldogs are allowing just 37.9% from the field this season. The Eagles also do not defend the 3-point shot nearly as well as Samford does. The Bulldogs were done in by injuries last season but are well-coached and have bounced right back early this season. Samford is 8-2 on the season and the only losses were to Ohio State and an OT loss to Belmont whom plays in the same Ohio Valley Conference that Morehead State does. But Belmont won 24 games last season while the Eagles won only 8 games! Morehead State is on an 8-13 ATS run in non-conference games while the Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS this season! 10* SAMFORD |
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12-12-18 | Nets v. 76ers -7 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #538 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers will likely be without Jimmy Butler for this game. As a result, this line has been over-adjusted too low and I am happy to step in and take advantage. Keep in mind the Sixers played nearly the entire game versus Detroit without Bulter (0 points in 10 minutes early before he got hurt) and yet they still rolled the Pistons. Also, in their prior game (also versus Pistons but at Detroit), Joel Embiid was out and Butler took over. Philadelphia has plenty of options on offense because they also have Ben Simmons and then they've seen other role players stepping up and having big games for them. Embiid shook off early rust and had a huge game versus the Pistons and so he'll carry momentum right into this match-up with the Nets. Surprisingly, Brooklyn enters this game off back to back wins but, keep in mind, the Nets had previously lost 12 of their 14 prior games! They're facing a 76ers team that is 14-1 SU at home this season! This is why I have no hesitation in laying the modest number at home here with Philly! The Sixers are 6-3 ATS (and 9-0 SU) in home games with posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Nets are only 2-12 ATS in their last 14 SU losses. In other words, when they lose SU they also have been losing ATS at a high percentage clip. Look for that trend to continue here as Embiid again takes over with Butler sitting out. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-12-18 | Massachusetts v. Temple -8.5 | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #704 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - The set-up here is perfect. The Minutemen are off a tight 1-point outright upset win as a nearly double digit dog at Providence while the Owls are off a 10 point loss to Philly rival Villanova. Temple is absolutely going to bring their "A game" tonight as a result and they also have revenge on their side. When these teams met two years ago UMass got the tight 3-point win at home despite the Owls having a double digit edge in field goal attempts. The point is that Temple just wasn't hitting their shots that night. Now the Owls get a revenge opportunity and it comes on their home floor. Additionally, the Minutemen only have 2 players back that played in that game while the players who logged the majority of the minutes for Temple in that game will be on the floor for this rematch. Massachusetts relies heavily on their 5'11 junior guard Luwane Pipkins and he is a great player. However, the Owls strength is their backcourt play and by containing (or at least limiting) Pipkins in this game, Temple will have a big edge as they are a much more balanced team than the Minutemen are. UMass is prone to turnover issues and the Owls are solid in terms of the turnover to steals ratio. In terms of technical support for this play, the Minutemen are 2-6 ATS this season and continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Massachusetts is also 5-15 ATS in Wednesday games. The Owls are 12-4 ATS in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The key here being that they are much better defensively in comparison with the Minutemen. 10* TEMPLE |
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12-10-18 | Pistons v. 76ers -7 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are rested and ready here. Yes, I am aware of the Joel Embiid situation but he didn't play in the match-up with Detroit on Friday and yet the Sixers still won by a half dozen points and that game was at Detroit. While Philly has been off since Friday, the Pistons are in a tough scheduling spot here as they did battle with the Pelicans yesterday. That loss to New Orleans dropped the Pistons to 0-4 their last 4 games (SU and ATS). Not only does that make this a back to back spot for Detroit, it is also the Pistons 3rd game in the last 4 days. Detroit is 11-22 SU when playing on back to back days and 7 of their last 8 SU losses have also been ATS losses. In other words, when the Pistons do lose they usually don't cover either! As for the Sixers, when they get a SU win they usually do cover as 11 of their last 15 SU win have also been ATS wins. Philadelphia is on a 32-16 ATS run in games with a posted total of 220 or more. Also, the 76ers are on a 64-36 ATS run in home games. They are 13-1 SU in home games this season and are also 23-12 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. All factors considered, including this line being around a 7 as of early game day morning, this is a great value spot on the Sixers as they have big situational edges here. Philly has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 40% from the field! Great defensive numbers while the Pistons have allowed 50% from the field in their last 4 games. All signs point to a home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-10-18 | Morehead State v. Marshall -13 | Top | 64-76 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #880 Monday 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (-) vs Morehead State Eagles @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Thundering Herd are off of an OT loss on Saturday and are on short rest here. However, I would argue that their scheduling situation is much better than that of the Eagles here. Morehead State has not played yet in December and is likely to be rusty. The Eagles also are walking right into a hornets nest tonight. Marshall is seeking revenge for a loss at Morehead State last season. I know the points are fairly big here but the Thundering Herd were 4-0 at home this season before the loss to Toledo Saturday and each of their last 3 home wins have come by a margin of at least 20 points. Both these teams like to play at a fast pace and with "run and gun" being the story here, the team that is NOT rusty and that is also at home and that is also playing with revenge certainly holds a large edge. Keep in mind Marshall was a pleasant surprise last season and even got a big upset win in the Big Dance too last spring. Though the Thundering Herd have underachieved early this season, this is the perfect spot for them to get on track as they take advantage of facing an Ohio Valley Conference foe that had lost 3 straight games (all by 17 or more) before blowing out a very small basketball program - Chillicothe - in their final game of November. Another key to just how much emphasis Marshall is placing on this game is that this is their final home game until mid-January! In other words, the Thundering Herd want to make the most of this opportunity and they won' take their foot off the gas here. The Eagles are 7-13 ATS in non-conference games. The Thundering Herd are 16-6 ATS when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* MARSHALL |
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12-09-18 | Tennessee +4 v. Gonzaga | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #859 Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 3 ET in Jerry Colangelo Classic @ Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, AZ - As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian and it is something that has served me very well through the years. This is another prime example of going against the grain. This line on #1 ranked and undefeated Gonzaga was as low as a -2 and has since been driven up to as high as a -4 in some spots. Of course this comes as no surprise as the betting markets are attracted to spots like this and also the game, though a "neutral site" is being played out west. That makes the Bulldogs the play here the way most people see it. What I see is we're getting some extra value here with an underdog that has the much better defensive stats on the season. Tennessee is the perfect example of what a "dangerous dog" is comprised of as they are allowing just 63.6 points per game on only 35.5% shooting from the field this season even though they've played a schedule that has been nearly equivalent to the strength of schedule Gonzaga has faced early this season. Keep in mind the Bulldogs barely beat Washington in their most recent game and also looked to be in trouble against Creighton (until late 2nd half) in their prior game. That is the same Bluejays team that got manhandled by Nebraska yesterday. The point is that the Bulldogs could be slightly over-rated at this point and I expect an upset here with the Vols so I will gladly grab the available points. Note that the Volunteers are 12-4 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, Gonzaga is a long-term 7-13 ATS versus SEC opponents. 10* TENNESSEE |
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12-08-18 | Creighton +7 v. Nebraska | Top | 75-94 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Saturday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 6 ET - Many will be looking to back the revenge-minded home team that also has the better numbers defensively and is a Top 25 team. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going the other way in this game. The Bluejays have had the Cornhuskers number in recent seasons and Creighton is very comfortable (and used to) playing at Nebraska. That negates a bit of the normal home court edge in a game like this. As a result, there is even more line value here with the under-valued underdog. Creighton is up to a 7 point dog as of early game day morning and this is a team that led Gonzaga pretty late in the game before falling short in last Saturday's action. The Bluejays have played a tougher schedule than Nebraska early this season and though Creighton's numbers on defense do not impress, the Huskers are also having trouble getting stops on defense of late. That said, if this game turns into a shootout it favors the sharp-shooters of Creighton plus it is good to have the points on your side in a rivalry game that could be close late. There is just so much confidence with the Bluejays here because of the way they can score and go on huge scoring runs plus they have the added confidence of having played well at Nebraska. From a technical standpoint, I like the fact that the Jays are 16-6 ATS (and 18-4 SU!) when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Nebraska is just 6-9 SU after a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also, the Cornhuskers are on a 2-8 ATS run when hosting the Bluejays. 10* CREIGHTON |
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12-05-18 | 76ers +6 v. Raptors | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers head to Toronto in much different shape than when they traveled north of the border earlier this season. Philly now has Jimmy Butler and they also are carrying the confidence of a 3-game homestand sweep that saw them hold opponents under 99 points in all 3 games. The Sixers view this as a huge game to prove they can compete among the best in the east as most everyone has already anointed the Raptors as the highly likely Eastern Conference representative for the NBA Finals this season. Of course the Bucks and Sixers (and Celtics too once they get back on track) have a little something to say about that! Toronto's defense has struggled at times in 3 of their last 4 games. The Sixers have gotten back to playing the "right way" on the defensive end and, with Butler joining Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, this team is going to be a much tougher match-up than what Kawhi Leonard and company dealt with in late October! Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS (and 5-1 SU!) when playing with revenge this season. The 76ers are also a long-term 23-11 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Toronto is a long-term 8-18 ATS in home games with posted total of 220 points or more. Also, the Raptors are only 5-8 ATS in all home games this season. Don't be surprised if the Sixers get the upset here but I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-05-18 | Ohio State -5 v. Illinois | Top | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #529 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Illinois Illini @ United Center in Chicago, IL @ 7 ET - The last time the Buckeyes faced the Illini away from Columbus they lost by 5. It is payback time here and the set-up is perfect. Ohio State is off a Big Ten home opener win and doesn't play again, after this game, until the 15th. That game will be against Bucknell. In other words, without a shadow of a doubt the Buckeyes are fully focused on this game and they are also catching a struggling Illinois team. The Illini have lost 6 of their last 7 games. The only 2 SU wins that Illinois has this season is when they were a double digit favorite. The problem with Illinois, just like last season, is defense. The Illini have allowed 7 straight opponents to make at least 46% of their shots from the field and, during this stretch they have allowed an average of better than 50% from the field for the opposition. The Buckeyes have been a pleasant surprise early this season and have been strong on both ends of the floor. They are playing well together as a cohesive group while Illinois has had issues with consistency which is not surprising given how many key players they lost from last season's team. I am aware of the injury involving Buckeyes freshman guard Luther Muhammad but Ohio State played very well without him versus Minnesota and have solid depth in their backcourt. The Buckeyes are 5-1 SU (and 4-2 ATS) against teams that allow 77 points or more per game. The Illiini are 5-11 SU (and 4-12 ATS) in neutral court games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. The Buckeyes are allowing just 60 points per game this season while Illinois is allowing 77 points per game! 10* OHIO STATE |
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12-04-18 | Northeastern v. Syracuse -10 | Top | 49-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #720 Tuesday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (-) vs Northeastern Huskies @ 6:45 ET - The Orange are off a rather unimpressive effort versus Cornell. Yes they beat the Big Red but they certainly didn't dominate and their next game is going to be a Big East foe as they face Georgetown Saturday. Though that is still not a conference game for the Orange, the point is that Syracuse knows they need to clean things up sooner rather than later. Hosting Northeastern on Tuesday should provide the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Huskies are without three key players from last season and all are guards. Northeastern has been without Shawn Occeus (Colonial Defensive POY last season), Max Boursiquot (started all but 1 game last season), and Vasa Pusica. The latter of those 3 players is the Huskies best player by far and he has been out since Northeastern's big win over Alabama. The short-handed Huskies just won't have enough to get by the deeper and much more talented Orange. Syracuse also will be in "response mode" on the defensive end as they've been a little lackluster in that aspect of their game recently and head coach Jim Boeheim is demanding a strong effort in this game. As injury-riddled as Northeastern is, they still have some solid outside shooters and the Orange must contest those shots. Look for them to do just that and to dominate this game. Look for the Orange to improve to 3-0 ATS when they are a favorite in a range of 10 to 19 points this season. The Huskies drop to 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they've been a dog. 10* SYRACUSE |
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12-04-18 | Magic +2.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Heat were favored by 2.5 AT Orlando in their season opener and lost. That makes this a revenge game for Miami and some may be surprised to see they are again favored by 2.5 even though this game is on their home floor. However, the key is that Goran Dragic is still out for the Heat. Even though he practiced with the team Monday he has already been ruled out for Tuesday and will be missing his 8th straight game. Why is this significant? He is certainly one of Miami's best players and, in fact, led the Heat with 26 points in the first game with the Magic and that was a 3 point loss! Note that the Magic enter this game having gone 8-2-1 ATS this season on the road. As for Miami, they are a horrible 1-6 ATS in divisional games this season. Overall, Orlando is on a 10-1-1 ATS run their last dozen games and they've been off for 3 days entering this match-up. The Heat are off back to back upset wins but Miami has shot just 41% from the field in those two games. The Magic have shot 50% their last two games and will be ready for another divisional battle here. 10* ORLANDO |
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12-03-18 | Iowa v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #516 Monday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 6:30 ET - The Spartans have opened up as a double digit favorite even though the Hawkeyes are very close to them in the rankings. Must be a mistake, right? Of course it is not a mistake but bettors will be attracted to Iowa as a result. Don't be fooled here as Michigan State should win this game in an absolute annihilation. The Spartans have played a tougher schedule than Iowa and also are the much deeper and much more veteran team. The Hawkeyes also were hoping for key contributions in the front-court this season from Jack Nunge and Cordell Pemsl. Both guys are out for the season. Granted they were not their stars but Iowa could ill afford to lose depth. Keep in mind this is the Hawkeyes first true road game of the season and they are 4-17 SU and 4-15 ATS in road games the past two seasons. The Spartans are a dominating 15-1 SU (and 12-4 ATS) in their last 16 home games versus Iowa. Also, Michigan State has already had wake-up calls with a loss at Louisville and a tight win at Rutgers. Remember the Spartans did lose their season opener (by just 5 points against powerful Kansas). In other words, this is a team that has already been battle tested and has proven worthy of respect. In this game, their Big Ten home opener, look for the Spartans to put one foot on the throats of the Hawkeyes and they won't take their other foot off the gas either! In other words, they dominate this one and win by 15 to 20 points. Michigan State is the much better team in terms of shooting and defense plus they've played the tougher schedule as noted above. Look for the Spartans to improve to 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) on the season when favored. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-01-18 | Cincinnati v. UNLV +6.5 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game # 580 Saturday 10* Top Play UNLV Rebels (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 6 ET - It wasn't that long ago that Bearcats head coach Mick Cronin supposedly had accepted the UNLV job and yet, when he did not, speculation ran rampant that he merely used the Rebels to gain leverage with his contract situation at Cincinnati. Note that Cronin did get a 2-year extension with the Bearcats after the UNLV "debacle". Suffice to say, emotions will be running high for this one as UNLV now hosts Cronin's Bearcats Saturday afternoon at 3 PM local time here in Vegas. Rebels head coach Marvin Menzies has done a great job rebuilding the UNLV basketball program. Even though they lost some key players from last year's team, they had a great recruiting class and have plenty of talent this season. With the young Rebels able to play host in this one, I see them holding the edge over a Cincinnati team playing its first true road game of the season. Note that the Bearcats have covered 4 straight games but they were favored my more than a dozen points in 3 of the 4 games. The Rebels are off a loss but previously had won 4 straight games and I look for them to bounce back strong here. Grab the big points here. 10* UNLV |
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11-30-18 | Jazz +2 v. Hornets | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Jazz got Donovan Mitchell back in their most recent game as he saw his first significant action in the past 4 games. Utah could also have newly acquired Kyle Korver on the floor for this game too. Of course he is going to be a big boost to the 3-point shooting woes the Jazz have experience. The Hornets are off back to back wins for the 4th time this season. That holds significance here as Charlotte has yet to win 3 straight games so far this season. I don't expect that to change here. Look for the Jazz to improve to 5-2 SU and ATS when coming off a non-conference game this season. The Hornets are 13-23 SU and ATS when off a divisional game. This game also involves the East vs West theory which is one that, in recent seasons, favors the West as they've been the stronger conference for many consecutive seasons now. Look for Charlotte to drop to 0-3 SU this season in games against non-conference foes. The Jazz are 13-7 SU their last 20 against Southeast Division opponents and also 40-22 SU when off a win by a double digit margin. Look for another road rout for the Jazz here. 10* UTAH |
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11-30-18 | Mississippi State -3.5 v. Dayton | Top | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Friday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) @ Dayton Flyers @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Flyers as they lost at Mississippi State last season. However, though that was only a 2-point loss for Dayton, the Flyers were actually down by 15 points at the half. The Bulldogs let them back in the game in the second half but I expect this year's match-up to play out much differently. Mississippi State is loaded with returning talent and veteran leadership while Dayton lost some key pieces compared to the team they were two seasons ago. That said, I have no hesitation in laying the short number on the road in this one. The Bulldogs are the better team, the bigger team, and the more veteran team. Also, Mississippi State is a fantastic 32-15 ATS when they enter a game having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. Additionally, the Bulldogs are on a 4-0 ATS run in Friday games. The Flyers are on a 3-7 ATS run when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. Look for Dayton to show some "rust" here as they have not played in a week and I expect the Flyers to drop to 3-6 ATS the last 9 times they've been a home dog in a range of 3.5 of 6 points. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-29-18 | Warriors +9.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - It is the wounded dog that bites the hardest! In other words, just because Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are likely out for this game it does not mean the Warriors are going to be a push-over for the Raptors. Golden State has been getting the job done even without these guys and I like the fact that the Warriors have held their last 3 opponents to a combined 42.9% from the field. The Raptors burned me at Memphis Tuesday as they rallied from a 17 point deficit and they got the win and cover at the Grizzlies despite Toronto attempting just 69 shots from the field. The fact is that the Raptors have allowed 10 field goal attempts more than they've taken in their last 3 games combined. Were it not for a ridiculous 61% shooting percentage from the field at Memphis Tuesday, the Raptors never would have won that game and they're certainly not repeating that effort against the Warriors tonight. Golden State will be "dialed in" on defense tonight because, even with missing a few guys, the last thing they want to do is get blown out in a possible NBA finals preview. The Warriors will bring their "A game" for this one. When GS is on an over streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 14-6 ATS in recent seasons including a perfect 3-0 ATS this season! Toronto is 0-3 ATS this season in home games against Western Conference opponents. More of the same here. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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11-28-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans -6 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #716 Wednesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - The Wizards have shot a ridiculously high percentage from the field in their last two games. One of those was against the Pelicans. However, both of those games were in Washington and I don't expect the Wizards to stay hot now that they are on the road for this one. The Wizards are just 2-7 SU on the road this season while New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season. Now, of course, we need more than just a SU win to get the cash here. However, note that Washington is 0-7 ATS when they lose on the road. In other words, when the Wizards lose, they don't cover either when away from home! As for the Pelicans, the average margin of their 8 home wins this season is 11 points and I expect another double digit win as they are in full-on revenge mode for this one. The Pelicans have been swept in each of the past two seasons by the Wizards and they want to avoid that same fate this season by coming up with a huge win here. I expect them to do just that! Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more this season. Look for the Pelicans to improve to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in home games with a posted total of 230 points or more this season. Payback revenge game on tap here and the half-dozen points means a very manageable line for what should be a home blowout. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-28-18 | Syracuse +5.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #737 Wednesday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:15 ET - Coming into the season I had Syracuse ranked much higher than Ohio State. So far this season the Orange have underachieved while the Buckeyes overachieved. The result is that Ohio State is ranked and Syracuse unranked heading into this match-up. Keep in mind, the Orange just got back senior guard Frank Howard and he had 5 assists in 19 minutes in his first game back. Syracuse, with Howard back, is a much different team. The Orange have plenty of talent and plenty of veteran leadership to beat a team like the Buckeyes on Ohio State's home floor. That said, the fact that we're getting about a half-dozen points here too make this one a "must play" in my book. Syracuse is well-rested here and they've gone 6-2 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Buckeyes are 8-14 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s and Ohio State is an ugly 11-18 ATS their last 29 non-conference games. Big time line value with the underdog Orange in this one. 10* SYRACUSE |
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11-27-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 85-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #510 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9:05 ET - While the Lakers are off a loss and looking to bounce back here, they are still without guard Rajon Rondo. Playing without your starting point guard is never fun but this is particularly true when you are on the road at Denver! Not only is Denver a tough place to play, the Nuggets have revenge on their minds here and they are likely to have guard Gary Harris back in the lineup for this one. Even if they don't, other stepped up in his absence Saturday as the Nuggets upset the Thunder at Oklahoma City. Denver is back on track with 3 straight wins and they are hungry for revenge here against LeBron James and company! The home team is 7-1 SU (and ATS!) in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Also, the Nuggets are 4-0 SU and ATS this season when they enter a game on an "under" streak of 3 or more games. The fact is that Denver has been playing very well on the defensive end and that is noteworthy here as the Lakers are having issues with turnovers in recent games. The Lakers are just 5-9 ATS their last 14 games and this is not the time or place for them to turn things around! 10* DENVER |
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11-27-18 | Virginia Tech v. Penn State +2.5 | Top | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #518 Tuesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The public will be backing the ranked road team in this one. However, the home dog should prove to be the correct side. The Hokies are still without guard Chris Clarke and Virginia Tech is facing an angry Penn State team here. The Nittany Lions are off a low-scoring loss to Bradley where they shot horribly and, as a result, they can't wait to get back on the floor. Keep in mind, Penn State won 26 games last season and they are being undervalued here in this spot. The Nittany Lions are 13-7 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, PSU is 5-1 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. In road games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points, the Hokies are a long-term 9-20 SU and that includes 2-4 SU in recent seasons. The home team has won 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams and I look for that trend to continue here as Virginia Tech has enjoyed particular success with 3-pointers (41.4% this season) but they're facing a Nittany Lions perimeter defense that has surrendered just 22.9% from beyond the arc this season! 10* PENN STATE |
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11-23-18 | Northern Iowa v. Old Dominion -7 | Top | 65-72 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (-) vs Northern Iowa Panthers @ 7 ET - Had my eyes on this match-up all along as these teams were in a tournament in the Virgin Islands and did end up meeting already this season in that tourney. Old Dominion lost that game by a single point to Northern Iowa even though the Monarchs had a dozen more shot attempts from the field than the Panthers in that one. The point is that it was simply an "off" shooting night for Old Dominion but now they get a chance at revenge and the opportunity comes on their home floor where the Monarchs are fully capable of a dominating effort. Yes, Old Dominion lost some talent from last season's very successful team but they've "reloaded" well and Northern Iowa lost much more and certainly has been in a bit of a stagnant cycle in recent seasons. Note also that the Panthers are 9-21 ATS as an underdog, 5-18 ATS in road games, 3-12 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 120s, and 5-18 ATS when off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less! Long-term the Monarchs are 45-9 SU as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Couple that with Northern Iowa's poor ATS record as an underdog (plus the strong situational edge here) and you can see why a big home win (and cover!) is in the forecast for this one! 10* OLD DOMINION |
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11-21-18 | Pelicans +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Wednesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers will be the popular choice here as they are yet to lose a game at home this season. However, the Pelicans are 4-0 SU in games against Eastern Conference foes this season and that includes 3-0 SU versus Atlantic Division opponents. Those wins including a double digit victory for New Orleans at Toronto last week. The Pelicans have been red hot with their shooting and the 76ers certainly haven't been known for their defense this season. The Sixers added Jimmy Butler in the huge deal with Minnesota but the Markelle Fultz saga continues and J.J. Redick is listed as questionable for tonight's game. Philly is 1-6 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more in their prior game. The Pelicans are 4-1 SU (and ATS) when off a win by a double digit margin this season. Rolling with momentum after knocking off the Spurs Monday, the Pelicans get the job done again on the road at Philly Wednesday. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-21-18 | CS-Fullerton +4.5 v. Hofstra | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cal State Fullerton Titans (+) @ Hofstra Pride @ 7 ET - Though the Titans are all the way on the East Coast for this game they were already out east for a tournament in Myrtle Beach, SC that wrapped up over the weekend. That said, this is not too bad of a travel situation for Cal State Fullerton. I like the fact that the Titans have veteran leadership, strong guard play and are the better team defensively in comparison with Hofstra. The Pride have allowed 47.8% shooting in their games this season while the Titans have allowed only 36.1% from the field! Cal State Fullerton took Arizona State to double OT in their first game this season and also is battle-tested after games against Wake Forest and Central Florida in the just-completed Myrtle Beach tourney. The Pride have been a covering machine this season (4-0 ATS thus far) but I have not been impressed with their play on the defensive end thus far and that will prove to be their undoing here. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Pride are on a 16-27 ATS run. Hofstra also is on an ugly 4-12 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. I am expecting an upset here but will gladly grab the points. 10* CAL STATE FULLERTON |
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11-20-18 | Bradley +3 v. SMU | Top | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #757 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bradley Braves (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 6 ET in the Cancun Challenge - Riviera Division at Hard Rock Arena @ Riviera Maya Cancun - The Braves finally turned the corner last season in their multi-season rebuild. Now they return most of their key talent from last year and it has already been a 3-1 start to this season. Look for Bradley to stay hot here as SMU is dealing with some injury issues and the Mustangs just haven't looked as strong early this season as the Braves have. SMU is allowing 44.4% from the field this season and 39.2% from three point land. Bradley is allowing just 41.4% from the field and only 30.9% from three point land. In a neutral court game with a posted total between 130 and 134.5 points, the Braves are 7-3 ATS. The Mustangs are 19-36 ATS in neutral court games. SMU is also a long-term 28-40 ATS in November games. The early line move has been toward the Mustangs here and I am going contrarian and grabbing the value on the other side with the mid-major school, the Braves. 10* BRADLEY |
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11-16-18 | Jazz v. 76ers -3 | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - Both teams are looking to bounce back but the Jazz are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Utah is off an unbelievable 118-68 loss at Dallas. Though they are hungry to get back on track after that, the Jazz now visit Philly where the 76ers are also in bounce back mode. Philadelphia just dropped Jimmy Butler's debut game at Orlando Wednesday despite having a double digit lead heading into the 4th quarter! Now Butler makes his home debut for the Sixers. Not only is Philly 7-0 SU at home this season, they're going to take advantage of a Jazz team that has struggled to score on the road in 3 straight games! In Utah's last 3 road games they are averaging just 84 points per game and they've been held to 37% shooting from the field. The 76ers are averaging 118 points per game at home this season! In other words, there is a significant home/road dichotomy factor in looking at these two teams. Though the Jazz will be looking to get back on track they are actually 12-20 ATS when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Philly is a long-term 40-22 ATS in non-conference games and the Sixers are a long-term 60-33 ATS in home games! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-16-18 | St. John's v. Rutgers +3 | Top | 84-65 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #730 Friday 10* Top Play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+) vs St John's Red Storm @ 7 ET - The Red Storm are getting a lot of love from the betting markets early this morning and that doesn't come as a big surprise considering they've enjoyed long-term success against the Scarlet Knights and that includes games at Rutgers. Of course this little push by the markets has resulted in even more line value here with the home dog Scarlet Knights. The key here is that Rutgers has started the season really hot with their shooting and they get this game at home. St John's and the Scarlet Knights have played roughly equal teams so far in terms of strength of schedule so certainly one should not discount what Rutgers has done early this season. They are off to a red hot start with their shooting including from three point land. The Scarlet Knights also have a big edge in terms of size in this match-up. Rebounding deficits have been a recurring them for the Red Storm in recent seasons and that is likely to continue to be an issue in this match-up. Plus the aggressive Knights (added some talented scorers coming into this season) can attack the rim easier when there are not big guys down there. The size issue for St John's has been exasperated even more because they were counting on 6'9 250 Sedee Keita for key minutes in the rotation but he is now out with a knee injury. The Red Storm are 10-25 ATS in Friday games long-term and are 7-12 ATS in recent seasons when off a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1 ATS when off a game where they scored 80 points or more plus they are 10-2 ATS in non-conference games. I like the hot home team with the bigger bodies and with the extra line value. 10* RUTGERS |
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11-14-18 | 76ers -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Jimmy Butler's first game with the 76ers. The fact it is on the road is even better as it is keeping this line at a reasonable number. I look for Philly to win this game in blowout fashion. The Sixers now have a "Big 3" with Butler joining Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. This team is poised to be a force in the East to be reckoned with and Butler is likely to "go off" tonight and have a massive performance as he is thrilled to finally be out of Minnesota. The Magic should provide the perfect "punching bag" as Orlando. Entering Wednesday, the Magic are just 5-8 SU in their last 13 games. Orlando has just 3 ATS wins in its last 10 games. The Magic are 11-23 ATS when off a divisional game. Orlando is also a horrible 32-56 ATS in home games including 2-6 ATS this season. The 76ers are 25-13 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog and also 28-13 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Offensively the Sixers are averaging nearly 10 points more per game than Orlando. Defensively Philly is allowing just 43% from the field while the Magic are allowing 46% from the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-14-18 | Michigan +7.5 v. Villanova | Top | 73-46 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 6:30 ET - This a rematch of last year's national championship game. The Wildcats defeated the Wolverines handily by 17 points. However, just how solid was that victory really? Certainly some credit is owed to the Villanova defense for it but the fact that Michigan only made 3 of 23 three pointers certainly had something to do with it too. The Wildcats outscored the Wolverines by 21 points from 3-point land as the Cats made 10 three points in the game! The point is that the game could have gone either way were it not for the disparity from beyond the arc. Now, this season, each of the teams are a little younger and less experienced but one could argue that Villanova lost more from their roster than did Michigan. I have plenty of respect for coach Jay Wright and his Wildcats but the Wolverines are led by a great coach of their own in John Beilein. Michigan, and Beilein, have had their sites set on this rematch. So much so in fact that they were down big at the half against Holy Cross in their most recent game. Of course the Wolverines responded and blew out the Crusaders in the second half but, the point is, this game has been circled in red ever since the schedules come out. Perhaps the Wolverines do fall short here but, if they do I expect the loss to be by only a bucket or two. Great value with the big dog here and Michigan is 12-6 ATS their last 18 as an underdog. I'll grab the generous points being offered. 10* MICHIGAN |
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11-13-18 | Hornets v. Cavs +7 | Top | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Tuesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Of course the Cavs 1-11 SU record on the season makes them look very uninviting to the betting markets. The result is line value in a situation like this because they have been a different team since the coaching change. The Cavaliers last 3 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of only 4 points. Cleveland has been playing better on the defensive end and has allowed an average of just 99 points per game in their last 3 losses. The Hornets are in a tough scheduling spot as they are off a big win at Detroit and have a big revenge game with the 76ers on deck. Charlotte just recently lost to Philly by a single point and can't help but be anticipating the big match-up with newly acquired Jimmy Butler and the Sixers. The Hornets are also having to deal with a revenge-minded Cavs team here. Cleveland trailed Charlotte by just 7 points at the half in their meeting earlier this month but then got blown out by 32 by the time the final horn sounded. Time for some payback here and the Cavaliers improve to 3-0 ATS this season when playing with revenge. 10* CLEVELAND |
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11-09-18 | Indiana State v. Green Bay | Top | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Friday 10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores (pick'em) @ Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 4:30 ET - UWGB is attracting some betting attention here because they are off a blowout win in their season opener while the Sycamores are off a blowout loss in their season opener. However, there is much more than meets the eye at first glance in terms of this match-up. First off, the Phoenix took advantage of playing a Division III school as they crushed Wisconsin-Lutheran to open up the season. Secondly, Indiana State played a Ball State team that is expected to be on of the top teams in the MAC. The Sycamores, even though they were on the road for that game too, were tied at the half with the Cardinals and also were down by just 7 at about the mid-way point of the 2nd half. After a disappointing effort on defense in the 2nd half of that game, the Sycamores are hell-bent on rectifying the situation here. Also, Indiana State was at a size disadvantage at Ball State but now it is the Sycamores whom will have the size edge in this match-up with UWGB. Also, this is game is an early start Friday due to a conflict with the Volleyball schedule for the Phoenix and so the game goes at 3:30 ET. A day game on campus isn't going to help the atmosphere here for UWGB either. With the Sycamores not playing again until the 14th, they are highly motivated to atone for their poor 2nd half performance at Ball State. The Phoenix are 2-6 ATS in Friday games and I look for the Sycamores to improve to 3-0 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s in recent seasons. 10* INDIANA STATE |
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11-07-18 | 76ers +2.5 v. Pacers | Top | 100-94 | Win | 102 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Wednesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off an embarrassing loss at Brooklyn where Philly turned the ball over 27 times compared to just 9 for the Nets! Philadelphia has had two days off since then and can't wait to get back on the floor and atone for that performance. As for the Pacers, though they've been winning more regularly than the Sixers have of late, they are having shooting issues. Indiana has struggled at the free throw line this season and they've also made just 42% of their shots from the field in their last 3 home games! The Pacers are 0-3-1 ATS this season when off a home game. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. The 76ers are a long-term 49-26 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Philadelphia is 3-1 SU when off a loss this season. The public and betting markets are likely to back the Pacers here since the Sixers still have not won a road game this season. I am fading the masses, as per usual, because Philly got demolished by the Nets in their most recent game. As a result, they are incredibly focused for this game and the finally get a road win on the board. Now, though I do expect an outright upset, I am grabbing the available points here as the Pacers are only 3-2 SU in their last 5 games and 2 of those SU wins came by 2 points or less. In other words, getting 2.5 points or more here could prove to be very valuable. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-30-18 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 112-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Kawhi Leonard sat for the Raptors last night (just for rest) but that is no excuse for getting blown out at Milwaukee as the Bucks were without their star player as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo did end up going in concussion protocol. Also, the Sixers Joel Embiid did play in Philly's first back to back this season and I expect he will do so again here after Philadelphia blew out the Hawks in the 2nd half last night and they were able to rest starters in the 4th quarter. Embiid clearly was "saving up" for this game as he had his lowest point total and rebound total of the season in last night's game. Milwaukee, Toronto, Detroit, and Boston are the top 4 teams in the NBA East right now based on records. Why do I bring that up? Because the Sixers have already lost to Boston, Detroit (in OT thriller), and the Bucks. Philadelphia has this game at Toronto circled in blood as a result! The 76ers know they need to prove they can be a quality team in the East as so far they have looked like the weakest of all the aforementioned teams and Philly is supposed to be a legit contender in the East this season. With Ben Simmons playing very well, Markelle Fultz off a strong game, and Embiid having (in my opinion) saved up for this one, I am expecting a Sixers upset tonight but certainly like the value with the points. By the way, Raptors only had 2 players score 11 points or more last night while the 76ers had 6 players score at least 11 points last night. Balanced scoring certainly is an important factor and Philly was all over the boards last night too. They are hungry and in need of a statement win. The Raptors are on an 8-18 ATS run in Tuesday games while the Sixers are on a 13-7 ATS run in Tuesday games. Also, the 76'ers are 46-24 ATS their last 70 games versus teams that score an average of 106 points or more per game. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-24-18 | Jazz +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 100-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - This play is contrarian from the standpoint that, on the surface, it looks real easy to take the Rockets at home off a loss and lay a very small number in doing so. However, the problem with Houston right now is they have a cluster of injuries impacting them and also Chris Paul is suspended for one more game and not returning until Friday's match-up with the Clippers. Also, the Rockets are catching the Jazz at the wrong time. Not only does Utah have playoff revenge from last season, the Jazz also enter this game off back to back losses and very fired up for this game. They blew their recent game against the defending champion Warriors and then, after that debacle in the Warriors game, they clearly looked right past Memphis as they were looking ahead to this opportunity for post-season revenge. Now the day has arrived and it is time to "put up or shut up" and I expect the Jazz to "put up" here! Utah has stayed mostly static with their roster and that particularly helps them in a situation like this where the Rockets are having to mix and match pieces. Also note that the Jazz have only failed to cover 24 of their last 67 games when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game. As for Houston, they are on a 10-18 ATS run when playing with 2 days of rest between games. 10* UTAH |
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10-23-18 | 76ers -1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 132-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Detroit is 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS on the season. They've squeaked by Brooklyn and Chicago. Neither the Nets or Bulls are expected to post much of a threat in terms of NBA supremacy this season! The point is that the Pistons are now finally facing a strong team and Philly has some confidence back after back to back wins have followed an opening game disaster versus the Celtics. Yes, the 76ers have also faced a weak schedule since that game one loss but the fact that they've at least, unlike the Pistons, faced one quality opponent, is reason enough to believe that they've got a better shot at getting into the win column in this one. The Pistons have yet to truly be battle tested. Even though Simmons (back) is an issue for the Sixers, they played most of the last game without him which allowed for a good "test run" and they'll be even better prepared tonight after JJ Redick went off in his absence and had a huge game. Keep in mind too that Detroit big man Andre Drummond is dealing with the flu which certainly won't help the Pistons as they try to contain Joel Embiid inside! Philly won all 4 meetings last season and each win came by at least 5 points. The 76ers are on a 21-9 ATS run when playing with 2 days of rest between games and this is their first such opportunity this season. The Sixers will make the most of it! The Pistons have a divisional game on deck (Cavs) and also are off a divisional win (Bulls) and Detroit is 11-20 ATS their last 31 when off a divisional game. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-21-18 | Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 133-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 6:05 ET - The Cavaliers burned me on Friday night but I'll get it back here. I had the Timberwolves (-8 or -8.5) and they blew a 21-point lead and won the game by only 8 for a loss or push for my clients. Now we get a chance to fade a line move here as everyone is piling on Cleveland for their home opener. This is not a very good Cavs team. Now I am certainly not saying that the Hawks are anything special either but they are now getting a lot more points than they should be considering they are 0-2 SU just like the Cavaliers are so they will be every bit as hungry. Keep in mind they have a history of playing very well here too as they've covered each of their last 8 trips to Cleveland. Coming into this season, Atlanta's projected win total was very close to that of the Cavaliers and there is just not a huge difference right now between these two teams. I also like the fact that the Cavs have covered (to the closing line) each of their first two games but each by just half a point. Their luck runs out here as they will be doing good just to win this game let alone cover the inflated spread. The Cavaliers are on a 61-84 ATS run as a favorite. Cleveland is also 39-58 ATS in home games. Also, when off a non-conference games, the Cavs are an ugly 25-42 ATS. 10* ATLANTA |
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10-19-18 | Cavs v. Wolves -8 | Top | 123-131 | Push | 0 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #710 Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Both the Cavs and Wolves were outscored at the 3-point line in their season opening losses. The difference tonight in terms of whom bounces back in Game Two of the new season has a lot to do with the home floor. The Cavaliers are unlikely to fix their outside shooting woes here. Their problems were evident in a bit of a disjointed game at Toronto where they found themselves down 20 points. As for Minnesota's game at San Antonio, they got very little from Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler didn't contribute a lot until he was involved with all of the Timberwolves last 14 points. So if Towns doesn't foul out, Butler carries over momentum from his late game play at SA, and the Wolves also don't get outscored by 15 points from beyond the arc then what happens? I'll tell you what happens. This game should turn into an absolute home blowout. We're getting extra line value here because the Cavs snuck in the back door for a late cover or push while the Wolves just missed covering their first game. Now this line is down from where it should be. Keep in mind the Wolves crushed the Cavs here by 28 points last year and Cleveland comes into this season projected to finish the year 20 games under .500 (sans LeBron James) while the Timberwolves are projected to be a winning team in the tougher Western Conference (per win totals from odds makers before the season). The Wolves are 9-4 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Cavs are 11-33 ATS when off a loss by a double digit margin! Blowout time here. 10* MINNESOTA |
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10-18-18 | Bulls v. 76ers -11 | Top | 108-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers go from playing the best team in the Eastern Conference to now facing one of the worst. Philly also goes from playing on the road in a tough venue in Boston to playing at home for their own rowdy fans. Especially with this game being their home opener, this game has blowout written all over it after the 76ers had such a tough game from the 2nd quarter on in their opening night loss Tuesday. Philadelphia is 27-15 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, the 76ers are a long-term 56-30 ATS in home games. The Bulls are on a 28-57 SU run in road games and when the Sixers win as a favorite they normally cover. The 76ers are on a 47-19 SU run as a favorite and they've gotten the cash in 38 of those 47 wins. With advantages all over the floor (especially with Bulls missing Lauri Markkanen) this one turns into a home blowout. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-16-18 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Celtics won 7 of 9 meetings with the Sixers last year. Boston has also won 9 straight home games against Philly. Yet the line on this season opening game opened up at just a 5. You know where I am going here as this is a perfect example of what my contrarian picks are all about. While Boston at home looks enticing it should prove out that Philly was the right side in this one! Keep in mind, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward are back for Boston but are returning from injuries. Also, the 76ers Markelle Fultz worked hard on his shot in the off-season. He adds value to a team loaded with talent including Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and JJ Redick. Look for the highly motivated Sixers to prove to be the much hungrier team in this one and they are making some changes on defense in this one that should help them be stronger in the paint against the Celtics. Only time will tell but I feel an upset looms tonight and, keep in mind, the last 4 meetings between these teams featured a 76ers win and 3 Sixers losses but all of those Philly defeats came by a margin of 5 or less points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - In Cavaliers games the home team has covered 8 of the last 11. Also, Cleveland is off of 3 straight losses but hasn't lost 4 straight games since a losing streak in early to mid-January. So you have to go back nearly 5 months to find the last time the Cavs have lost 4 in a row. I don't expect that to happen here either but am happy to grab the value with the points should Cleveland fall just short here. The Cavaliers, since the calendar turned from April to May, have shot much better when on their home floor EXCEPT for Game 3. Entering that Game 3, Cleveland had shot at least 47% from the field in all 5 games and the Cavs had averaged 113.8 points per game in their 5 prior home games. The Warriors have averaged only 102.5 points per game in their last 4 road games. Golden State is on a 15-27 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are 10-23 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 37-14 SU when at home this season and also they've gone 5-3 SU in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. Even though the Cavaliers are down 3-0 in this series, the Game 1 loss was in OT and the Game 3 defeat was a tie game very late. That said, the available points here in a game that the Cavaliers will be desperate for - at home and looking to avoid an embarrassing sweep - I like the value of LeBron James and Company as a home dog. 10* CLEVELAND |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - In Cavaliers games the home team has covered 8 of the last 10. Also, Cleveland is off of back to back losses but hasn't lost 3 straight games since a losing streak in early to mid-January. So you have to go back nearly 5 months to find the last time the Cavs have lost 3 in a row. I don't expect that to happen here either but am happy to grab the value with the points should Cleveland fall just short here. The Cavaliers, since the calendar turned from April to May, have shot much better when on their home floor. Cleveland has shot at least 47% from the field in all 5 games and the Cavs have averaged 113.8 points per game in their last 5 home games. The Warriors have averaged only 100 points per game in their last 3 road games and were held to 45.9% or less in 6 of their last 10 road games before a strong shooting effort to close out the Rockets at Houston in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State is on a 14-27 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are 9-23 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 37-13 SU when at home this season and also they've gone 5-2 in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. With 2 days of rest between games and coming back home and having been so close to the upset win in Game 1, look for a huge effort from the Cavaliers at home in this one as they get back into the series with a great performance. 10* CLEVELAND |
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05-31-18 | Cavs +13 v. Warriors | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Of course this game is televised on ABC so that is where the play title comes from but truly the hope is that this cover is indeed as "Easy as ABC" tonight. The fact is that the Warriors barely got by a Rockets team sans Chris Paul in the final two games of the series and that also short horrific from three point land. Of course Houston relies heavily on the 3-ball so the nearly unbelievably poor shooting from downtown was ultimately the nail in the coffin for the Rockets. Now, after winning by only 9 at Houston in Game 7 despite the Rockets being without Paul and unable to "throw the ball in the ocean" (their shooting was so OFF!), the Warriors are as high as a 13 point favorite against a Cavaliers team that is starting to believe they can pull off the unthinkable. Keep in mind, Boston is VERY well-coached and yet the Cavaliers still managed to get past the Celtics in Boston in Game 7 with a valiant effort by LeBron James and Company. The Warriors, in the Rockets series, certainly haven't looked as invincible as they have in the past and the Cavs are well aware of the fact that they are being given absolutely "no chance" in this series. Highly motivated and well rested, LeBron and his eager teammates are absolutely going to hang around in this game one and put up a big challenge to the Warriors. Simply put, I just don't see this game being decided by more than single digits. Cavs are 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and the Warriors are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season. 10* Top Play CLEVELAND |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - I will not be surprised if Chris Paul plays tonight and if he is also very effective. However, even if he doesn't, one should not forget that the Rockets (sans Paul) led the Warriors by double digits at the half on Saturday and that game was at Golden State. Yes they got blown out in the second half but Houston certainly garnered some confidence from that first half performance and now they get Game 7 at home. The Rockets are 41-9 SU at home this season and 21-6 SU when playing with revenge and 15-3 SU when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. The Houston offense has certainly struggled for long stretches on the road in these playoffs but the Rockets have averaged 112 points per game in their last 7 home games and I expect a huge performance tonight. The Warriors are a long-term 6-10 SU when tied in a playoff series and that includes 2-3 SU and ATS the last 3 seasons combined. In other words they are far from "automatic" in a spot like this and the fact is that these points are very generous. The Warriors have covered only 22 of their last 60 versus teams with a winning record! Golden State is 9-16 (36%) ATS their last 25 road games. I am expecting the upset here but am grabbing the points because if the Rockets do fall short it is likely to be by just a bucket or two. They are not going down without a fight here whether Paul plays or not. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - Well aware of the fact that the Celtics are 10-0 at home in the post-season. Also well aware of the fact that the Cavaliers are without Kevin Love for this game. However, after he went out in Game 6 (head injury), the Cavs were "off and running" thanks in large part to LeBron James. The fact is I simply can not play against him in a Game 7. While it is true that one man does not make a team, he is also a leader for this Cavaliers team and the fact is that his team has a 5-0 record in his last 5 Game 7's. The last loss was all the way back in 2008 and, ironically, that defeat came at the hands of the Celtics. However, this is LeBron's 15th season and that game was 10 years ago! James has matured, of course, a ton since then and I look for his team record in Game 7 match-ups to make it 6 in a row on Sunday night! I know venue has had a lot do with it but lets also not forget that the Celtics have lost 3 of the last 4 games in this series. It is hard to believe that with coaching adjustments at half-time (Brad Stevens is a fantastic coach) and with Love being out of the game, the Celtics still couldn't close this out in Game 6. Boston has had so many chances to really truly take a stranglehold on this series (after being up 2-0) and they just never did it. Now they pay the ultimate price for that in my opinion. It is VERY rare for a 7-game series to go 7 games and have the home team win every single game and I look for this one to avoid that rare exception in the record books too. Remember James and Company won Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2016 at Golden State! I am calling for the upset but will grab the points being offered! 10* CLEVELAND |
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05-25-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - The way I see it the Cavs had their chance in this series and blew it in Game 5. Cleveland had all the momentum after winning big in Games 3 and 4 at home but then went and laid an egg on the road Wednesday. Knowing that Game 7 would also be on the road and that Boston is a perfect 10-0 at home in the post-season, this is in the back of the minds of the Cavaliers whether they admit to it or not. The fact is that the Celtics now have the Cavs on the ropes and if Cleveland does somehow pull this one out I expect it to be a very tight win. Keep in mind, prior to the blowout wins in Games 3 and 4 of this series and finishing off the Raptors in Game 4 in a rout, the Cavaliers 6 prior home wins had all come by a margin of 6 points or less! In fact they are known this season for just squeaking by in games. That is why the Cavaliers are 23-49 ATS as a favorite this season and 16-33 ATS in home games! Boston is 23-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The last 5 times the Cavs were off of a double digit loss they've actually gone only 3-2 SU. In other words, even bouncing back for a SU win here is not a given and also 2 of those 3 SU wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 7 points off of a double digit loss would have resulted in a 1-4 ATS record for the Cavs since April 1st. I am grabbing the big dog value with the Celtics in this one as finally we see a road team cover in this series! 10* BOSTON |
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05-23-18 | Cavs +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics didn't just lose Game 3 in Cleveland, they got crushed. Boston followed that up with a better effort in Game 4 but they still were down by double digits nearly the entire game. The points is that the Cavaliers didn't just beat them, they destroyed them. As much as I respect the coaching of Brad Stevens, the head man for Boston can only do so much and the veteran edge the Cavs roster has is paying dividends as this series has gone on. The fact that the Cavaliers didn't just win but won huge in Cleveland means they now have all the momentum plus a ton of confidence as this series goes back to Boston for Game 5. Keep in mind, Boston has gone 9-0 on their home floor in the post-season but this game is priced this way for a reason and it is certainly no mistake. Look for the Cavs to get the upset win Wednesday and take a stranglehold on this series. LeBron James is back in the zone and what people don't realize is their hot shooting has been there since before this series started. It is not as if the Cavs are just getting "lucky" with their shots. They've been on fire dating back to the Raptors series. Yes they had one very poor shooting effort (Game 1 of this series) but in their other 6 games the past 3 weeks they've hit a combined 52.2% from the field. That is NOT one game, that is a combined average for SIX games! That is HOT shooting that Boston only wishes they could achieve. The Celtics have been held under 44.8% in 5 of their last 6 games. Big difference here and the Cavs have the best player on the floor, the momentum, the experience edge, and the confidence factor. The Cavaliers are a long-term 17-6 SU their last 23 games versus the Celtics and that includes 8-4 SU and ATS their last 12 in Boston. Yes, the Celtics took it to them in Game 1 here but the Cavs were up 7 points at the half in Game 2 on this floor. With the way the tide has turned in this series, look for LeBron and Company to again jump on the Celtics early with a big first half in Boston and, this time, they hang on for the win over a dejected Celtics team that is now (though they wouldn't admit it) doubting themselves. 10* CLEVELAND |
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Tremendous value here as everyone expects the Cavaliers to bounce back since they are at home and they have dug an 0-2 hole in this series. There are many problems with that theory however. First off, this is LeBron James weakest supporting cast in his tenure with the Cavs. Secondly, the Cavaliers best shot for a blowout home win would be to get hot from the outside and start draining shot after shot. The long layoff in this series won't help in that regard. These teams haven't played since Tuesday and Boston is 5-1 SU and ATS this season when playing with 3 or more days of rest this season while Cleveland is 0-4 SU and ATS with those same parameters this season! The issue for the Cavs is that generally when they are shooting cold (and certainly the Celtics are tough defensively) they stay cold. The Cavaliers this season are an ugly 1-6 ATS when they enter a game having been held under 100 points in each of their 2 prior games. In other words, don't look for the Cavs to start suddenly draining all kinds of shots in this game. In fact, with their loss in Game 2 (scored 94) after scoring just 83 in Game 1, Cleveland is now 4-17 ATS this season when off of a game where they were held under 100 points! Should the Cavs find a way to get a home win and crawl back into this series don't be surprised if it is a non-covering win. Cleveland is only 8-6 SU in their last 14 games and 6 of those 8 wins have come by a margin of 4 points or less! Look for the Cavaliers to drop to 0-5 ATS on the season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest. 10* BOSTON |
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05-09-18 | 76ers +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - Most all of you have likely heard the expression "let sleeping dogs lie". It is an old saying that essentially means this:Â avoid interfering in a situation that is currently causing no problems but might do so as a result of such interference. Here is the problem with the Celtics and what they did in Game 4 at Philly. Certainly entering the game the 76ers were dogs and Boston would have been better off not doing anything to provoke them. Instead the game became quite "testy" and at one point Philly native Marcus Morris (Celtics player) flashed a 3-0 signal with his hands to remind the Sixers what the series score was. Needless to say that is like twisting a stick into the belly of a sleeping dog. Philly head coach Brett Brown made a great move by starting TJ McConnell in Game 4 and he had a career game for the 76ers as it paid off huge for Philly. Lets not forget the Celtics are extremely well coached but still would be a much better team if they had Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward on the floor. The more talented team in this series (with those two guys missing for Boston) is Philadelphia. They are plenty alive and awake now and remember they lost Game 3 in OT and also the Game 2 loss at Boston was a narrow one. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA but the Sixers are well aware that they just need one win here to send this series back to Philly with a chance to tie it up. They are rejuvenated and ironically one of the few times in the NHL in which a team won a series after being down 3-0 was when the Philadelphia (Flyers) rallied against the Boston (Bruins) in 2010. Boston had the home ice edge there just like the Celtics do in this series. This Sixers team is absolutely rejuvenated and revitalized after the Game 4 win and they carry extra motivation after some of what went on in Game 4 on the court. I also like the fact that at one point the line on this game was 76ers -1.5 but the markets are loving the Celtics here and now it is Boston that is much as a -1.5 point favorite as of early game day morning. I love fading line moves like this and look for Boston to drop to 5-8 SU the last 13 times they've been leading in a playoff series as the Sixers improve to 24-11 SU the last 35 times they were off of a win by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Most will be looking for the Cavaliers, up 3-0 in this series, to close it out on their home floor Monday. However, even if Cleveland does that, it would not be too surprising if the Cavs fall short of the cover. After all, with Game 3's non-covering win, the Cavaliers are now 20-49 ATS as a favorite this season and also 13-33 ATS in home games! The loss for the Raptors marked the first time this season that they've lost 3 straight games. That is certainly noteworthy as Toronto is 5-2 ATS in recent seasons when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, the Raptors are 5-0 ATS (100% PERFECT) this season when they are an underdog of 4 or more points. As of very early game day morning, Toronto is catching a half-dozen points here and this is offering great value with the hungry underdog. The Raptors, with their cover Saturday, are now 6-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games. I expect Toronto to gut out a win and stay alive in this series. However, if they do fall short, look for it to be by 4 points or less. 6 of Cleveland's 7 playoff wins in this post-season have come by 4 points or less. 10* TORONTO |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - This line doesn't make sense which is precisely why I am backing the dog here. The Cavs just finished up winning both games at Toronto including demolishing the Raptors in convincing fashion in Game 2 and yet now they are at home and opened up as only a 3.5 point favorite. Of course markets jumped all over that and have driven the line all the way up to as high as a 5 as of early game day morning. Going contrarian as per usual I am on the other side of this move. The Cavaliers only turned the ball over a total of 8 times in the first two games. This is ridiculous and will change. The Cavs averaged 14 turnovers per game in their prior 8 games before averaging just 4 turnovers per game their last 2. As for the Raptors they had forced an average of 13 turnovers per game in their 4 games previous to allowing an average of only 4 in the last two games versus the Cavs. Also, Cleveland is not going to shoot 59.5% from the field again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2. It didn't matter what they were throwing up Thursday night it was going in. That is helping to lead to value here for the hungry Raptors. Toronto is 14-4 SU off of an upset loss as a favorite this season and they also are 16-5 SU after allowing 115 points or more. The Cavaliers are just 20-47 ATS as a favorite and only 13-31 ATS in home games this season. Cleveland also is 2-10 ATS in Saturday games this season. More of the same here. 10* TORONTO |
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05-04-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +4.5 | Top | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #516 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 10:35 ET - 3-point shooting comes and goes. The Rockets were the hot team in Game 1 and the Jazz were the hot team in Game 2 from beyond the arc. However, lets talk about what is going on inside the arc so far in this series. Houston has made 48 of 108 shots from 2-point land for a 44% shooting percentage while Utah has made a ridiculous 59 of 105 shots from inside the arc for a stellar 56% shooting percentage. You can tell who is getting the higher percentage shots / better looks at the basket so far in this series. Also, the Jazz have a shot 59.6% from the free throw line so far in this series. That is unusual and certainly won't continue based on their full season mark of 77.9% from the charity stripe. The Rockets defense has been subpar and they are 3-7 ATS this season when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive overs. The point is that when Houston is not playing good defense and games are flying over the total, they generally don't cover spreads either! Also, the Rockets are a long-term 6-11 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series. Utah is 3-1 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series and they'll ride the momentum of the big Game 2 win plus returning to their home floor tonight. Note that the Jazz are 16-6 SU after scoring 115 points or more in a game this season and also 19-5 SU in their last 24 games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* UTAH |
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05-03-18 | 76ers -4 v. Celtics | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics won Game 1 and that is perfect for setting up insane value here. Don't be surprised if that is the only game that Boston wins in this series. The scene will shift to Philly for Games 3 and 4 after tonight's game and I just don't see the Celtics winning again here. Did the 76ers perhaps come in overconfident Monday? One thing is for certainly Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown will have his team ready to go here and Boston is NOT going to make 17 of 36 three pointers again! Keep in mind, the Celtics outscored the Sixers by 36 points from three point land! If the teams were just "even" from beyond the arc, Philadelphia wins Game 1 by a 20 point margin! The 76ers dominated the boards in Game 1 and also did a better job of getting to the free throw line as they had very nearly twice as many attempts as Boston. Additionally, from inside the arc, Philly made 30 shots while the Celtics made only 24. There is an old saying about "live by the three die by the three" and the fact is that Boston only won Game 1 because of 3-point shooting and that is certainly not expected to continue here. In their 5 prior games, the Celtics were held to 34.6% or less in all 5 games! Boston is also banged up and the Sixers certainly hold the "health edge" here. When playing with 2 days of rest between games the 76ers went 12-4 ATS this season while the Celtics went 6-8 SU. Look for Boston to drop to 3-7 SU the last 10 times they have held a lead in a playoff series. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - There are some statistical outliers from Game 1 of this series that make this a fantastic spot to grab the big dog. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 1 by only 14 points even though the Rockets hit a ridiculous 17 of 32 from three point land and Utah made only 13 of 22 free throws! Yes, Houston is known for their 3-point shooting but they hit only 36.2% on the season. The Jazz actually hit 36.5% of their threes on the season! As for that unusual free throw shooting, Utah made 77% of their shots from the charity stripe on the season. The point is that, given normal shooting of free throws and three pointers, the JAZZ would have WON Game 1 by 8 points! That's right, Utah would have made 1 more three and 4 more free throws while the Rockets would have made 5 less threes. The result is a 22 point swing from a 14 point win for Houston to a win for Utah by a margin of 8 points. The beauty here is we don't need the Jazz to win, we just need them to cover and, as you can see, Game 1 had some crazy shooting results and yet the Rockets still barely covered! I am all over the value with big dog Utah in Game 2. The Jazz are 18-5 SU their last 23 game against team that average 106 points or more per game and they are also 10-6 SU/ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Rockets are 5-10 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Certainly the extra time off sometimes effects the shooting stroke of Houston's outside shooters. 10* UTAHÂ |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Steph Curry is expected back for tonight's game. Of course this has resulted in a jump in this line. However, will he be 100%? Will he be ready to step right in without disrupting the current flow of the Warriors? The fact is that he has hardly played in the past two months. Will there be an adjustment phase for both Curry and for Golden State in terms of working him back into the mix? I absolutely believe so and there is excellent value with a hungry Pelicans team off of an embarrassing loss in Game 1 and catching huge points in Game 2. Keep in mind Golden State was just "making everything" in the first half of that Game 1 victory and that got New Orleans into a big hole early. That will not be the case tonight and you're going to see the Pelicans playing with plenty of resolve and determination after the embarrassment of Game 1's result. Keep in mind, New Orleans entered this series on a 9-0 SU and ATS run their last 9 games. The Pelicans have averaged 116.5 points per game their last 10 games. New Orleans is 7-4 ATS (and 8-3 SU) when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, the Pelicans are 28-16 ATS in road games this season. The Warriors are only 6-9 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Golden State is on an 8-20 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they are over-priced here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-29-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The Jazz are without point guard Ricky Rubio and the line has really jumped on this game as a result. Utah is approaching being a dog by a dozen points here. Keep in mind, they lost Rubio to a strained hamstring very early in their series clinching win over Oklahoma City Friday. In other words, they played just fine without him. Sure Rubio contributes in a lot of ways but it certainly hadn't been his shooting in the Thunder series. He was in an awful slump and the time out with the hamstring injury may not be such a bad thing for Rubio (to get back on track) or for the Jazz as they'll compensate well for his absence here. Utah has multiple ways to modify their lineup sans Rubio and they'll be just fine here so I am glad to contrarian and grab the extra value here as everyone jumps on the Rockets at home. Houston struggled to find their rhythm on offense for long stretches in their series with the Timberwolves. They did not shoot the ball particularly well until the Game 5 victory. Now the Rockets will have to contend with a much tougher defense than what Minnesota presented. The Jazz use their defense to take down better offensive teams. That is why Utah is on an 18-4 SU run (16-6 ATS) versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Rockets are just 4-8 ATS their last 12 games. Also, when Houston enters a game on a totals streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 2-6 ATS this season. Look for the Jazz defense to be the difference maker here. 10* UTAH |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Stephen Curry is likely coming back for the Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. That has caused this line to jump up to a 9 as of early game day morning. The fact is that he is unlikely to be 100% right out of the gate and his shooting is also unlikely to be as sharp as usually. Keep in mind, Curry has hardly seen any game action since very early March. Golden State is hosting a red hot Pelicans team that also has added confidence from winning on this very floor in early April. That victory is part of the red hot 9-0 SU/ATS run that the Pelicans are bringing into this game. It is no fluke either as New Orleans is 9-3 SU/ATS their last 12 road games! When a team is that hot and winning like that away from home, they are a force to be reckoned with and I like the added line value here of this one now approaching double digits! The Pelicans are 13-7 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Warriors are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 home games and that long-term stretch dates all the way back to the All Star break. The Pelicans are shooting 52.8% from the field in their last 7 games. Golden State has been held under 44.7% from the field in 2 straight and 3 of their last 6 games. The Pelicans are geared up for the upset here and if they do fall short I expect the generous points offered here to prove to be more than enough. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - This line was as high as a -5.5 and is now down to a 4.5 (with reduced juice too) as of early game day morning. I like the value we're seeing here with the Bucks on their home floor considering they had 89 shots from the field (compared to just 69 for the Celtics) in the 5-point loss at Boston on Tuesday. Prior to that game Milwaukee was hitting over 52% in this series so the likelihood of a bounce back (particularly since they are back home) is quite high. The Bucks are 33-17 SU as a favorite this season and I like them to cover the small number in the process of another SU win here. At home, Milwaukee will be the better shooting team tonight and the Celtics may struggle a bit as they feel the pressure of trying to close it out and avoid a winner takes all Game 7. Keep in mind there is some history with this as Boston is only 3-5 SU when leading in a playoff series in recent seasons. They've haven't played well in this situation but they truly have been getting a number of fortunate covers. This is why the Celtics have such a strong ATS record and are becoming a public favorite...they've been getting the cash. But tonight the public will be burned on this one because the Bucks roll at home. Remember 87 to 69 field goal attempts in Game 5 on the road at Boston. You know what is coming tonight from the hungry Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets will be in bounce back mod here after getting destroyed in Game 3. Keep in mind, even though Houston won Game 1 it was far too close of a call and they responded in Game 2 and won by a margin of 20 points. The Rockets are 18-3 SU (15-6 ATS) versus Northwest Division opposition this season. Houston is also 17-6 SU when playing with revenge this season. That said, I also like my chances of a SU win equating to an ATS win as 11 of the Timberwolves last 13 losses have come by 8 or more points. Minnesota is also an ugly 18-34 ATS (including 9-16 ATS this season) when off of a game where they scored 115 or more points. Minnesota is also just 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they were off of a game where they shot 40% or better from three point land. The Wolves 15 of 27 shooting performance from beyond the arc certainly had a lot to do with their Game 3 win but they are not known as a 3 point shooting team and averaged only 8 per game so far this season. In other words, that 1-7 ATS stat makes perfect sense because Minny usually comes right back down to earth after a rare standout shooting performance like that. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-18-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - Paul George hit 8 of 11 three pointers in Game 1 for the Thunder. Many of those were contested. Sometimes guys go off in a game and that is what happened Sunday. Even with that ridiculous shooting performance by George in Game 1, Oklahoma City still only won the game by single digits. Look for this one to be either a Jazz upset or a loss by a single possession because Utah is going to shoot better than they did from three point land in Game 1. Odds favor that as well as the fact that George is certainly unlikely to again hit 73% of his threes. Coming into this series I felt the Jazz offer great value and I still feel that way despite the ATS loss in Game 1. Utah has allowed 99 points or less in 16 of their last 21 games. The Thunder have allowed an average of 109 points per game in their last 9 games. Despite the Sunday result, the Jazz are still 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Oklahoma City is still just 6-11 SU (and 3-14 ATS!) in games against divisional opponents this season. 10* UTAH |
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04-17-18 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - Certainly I won't hesitate to come right back with the Bucks for Game 2 of this series after a true brutally bad beat on Milwaukee in Game 1. Undoubtedly the Bucks were the right side in Game 1 as we all saw. The game only went to OT because of a miracle long 3-pointer for the Bucks with a tenth of a second left on the clock. Of course everyone with a Bucks ticket had at least 3.5, many had 4, and some even had 4.5 to the plus side with Milwaukee. The fact that the Bucks outscored the Celtics by a dozen points in the final 3 quarters of that game says a lot about the adjustments there were able to make. I also like the fact that they barely lost Game 1 despite 10 more fouls than Boston and despite the fact that the Celtics shot above their season averages from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Boston also had the added benefit of nobody totaling more than 4 fouls. The Bucks had two starters foul out and another starter ended up with 5 fouls. Those things effect players mentally. Look for staying out of foul trouble in Game 2 to result in an even better effort from the Bucks and, keep in mind, they pushed the Celtics to the brink in Game 1. If Boston had Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving on the floor this would be a different story but, without Irving particularly (I know Hayward was lost immediately this season), the fact is that the Celtics were very fortunate to win Game 1. They won't be so fortunate tonight against the hungry and determined Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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04-16-18 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - While both teams shot exceptionally well from 3-point land in Game 1, that certainly is unlikely to continue in Game 2. So lets take a closer look at the stats that do matter. The Sixers had 17 more field goal attempts in the game. Why? Because they won the rebounding battle by 10 caroms, had 5 more steals which helped lead to a turnover edge of 7, and had 10 more points in the paint. The point is that Philadelphia did the things that win playoff basketball games and I don't see any reason for that not to continue in Game 2. The 76ers had 5 guys score at least 17 points, the Heat only had one big scorer as Olynyk had 26 points. Keep in mind, it also certainly doesn't hurt that Philly has won 17 straight games. Their confidence is sky high and this is huge for a young team. Also, about that "young" team, 4 of the Sixers 7 players who logged the most minutes in Game 1 are 30 or older. That's right, the majority of the core playing rotation in that first game was comprised of guys who are at least 30 and the 76ers top two scorers in the game, Belinelli and Redick are 32 and 33, respectively. This team is a little more balanced with veteran leadership than what casual followers realize. That said, I'll gladly take the Sixers again at home in Game 2 as they are laying a small number despite the fact they are on their own court and going for 18 wins in a row. I'll take it! Lay the points with the red hot Sixers! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-15-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:35 ET - A line that had been as low as a -3 on the Thunder is now all the way up to as high as a 4.5 in some spots as of Sunday morning. I like the value with the underdog Jazz. Oklahoma City was only 16-26 ATS in the regular season in games against teams with a winning record. Utah finished up the regular season on a 13-7 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Thunder also were a horrific 2-14 ATS in games against divisional opponents this season. While Oklahoma City has the more prolific offensive production, I love defensive-minded dogs and certainly the Jazz are the better team on that end of the floor. Oftentimes good defense trumps offensive powerhouses and, that is especially true in crunch time like the playoffs or latter stages of the regular season. Sure enough, Utah is 14-2 SU (and 13-3 ATS) in their last 16 games against teams that average 106 or more points per game. The Jazz are 18-7 ATS in Sunday games including 6-1 ATS this season. Before a loss in their regular season finale, the Jazz were on a 17-3 SU run and the 3 losses were by 3, 4, and 5 points. Hence the value with the points in a game today where the road dog certainly has a great shot at the outright upset. The Thunder have covered just ONCE in their last SEVEN home games! 10* UTAH JAZZ |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 10:35 ET - The Pelicans are rolling into the post-season with 5 straight wins both SU and ATS. New Orleans has averaged 121.2 points per game during this 5-game winning streak. The Pelicans also have been dialing up some defense as they've allowed 103 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The Trail Blazers have been at the other end of the spectrum with a 1-4 SU run their last 5 games. Portland is only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games versus the Pelicans and one of those 2 wins came by just 4 points. The Blazers also are just 5-10 SU in their last 15 playoff games. New Orleans is simply "feeling it" right now and playing with a ton of confidence and shooting the ball very well. There are only 4 teams in the NBA that had more road wins than the Pelicans (24) this season. Those are the Warriors, Rockets, Celtics, and Raptors. Needless to say that is pretty elite company and the point is that this team can travel and win and I like getting the points here in Game 1 as they ride their momentum right into this post-season match-up. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-10-18 | 76ers -9.5 v. Hawks | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are wrapping up their season here and would love to finish up with a home win. However, Atlanta has the worst record in the Eastern Conference. Yes they are off of back to back wins but they are 0-3 ATS this season when off of back to back wins. Also, they now face a very "interested" opponent compared to the last two they faced. The Sixers would like to get the 3 seed in the East and they are in the drivers seat for that but they must keep winning. They need a win at Atlanta tonight and then home against the Bucks tomorrow night. In other words, they are very focused and on a mission and they also are encouraged by the fact that Joel Embiid very well could be back in time for the post-season. More good news for an already thriving franchise. Another key variable to this game, because depth is also important in late season games, is that the Sixers have two players in their rotation now that were dumped by the Hawks during this season. Don't be surprised if they come up with some big plays in this game tonight. The 76ers have won 14 straight and they've covered 10 of their last 12. The Sixers are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games versus opponents that averaged 106 or more points per game. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and their hot shooting the last two games is an aberration that won't continue and has provided some extra value here. Sixers in a road rout! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-09-18 | Thunder v. Heat +4 | Top | 115-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #708 Monday 10* NBA Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:35 ET - The Thunder still need to win to clinch a spot in the post-season. The Heat are already in. However, Miami doesn't want to go into the post-season playing bad basketball and they enter this game off of a 24 point loss at New York as a sizable road favorite! Note that Miami is 27-12 ATS (including 8-3 ATS this season) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Their SU record in those 11 games this season is 10-1. As for the Thunder, they enter this game off of an upset win at Houston. Prior to upsetting the Rockets, Oklahoma City had lost 4 of their 5 prior games. Also, OKC is an ugly 2-6 SU (and 1-7 ATS) this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. With this line climbing all the way to a -4 on the Thunder (after opening up at a pick'em) I love the value here with the home dog. The Heat are not going to lay down at home in this one. They don't want to be playing poorly heading into the playoffs and they will respond after the abysmal performance at New York. 10* MIAMI HEAT |
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04-08-18 | Pistons -5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 117-130 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 3:35 ET - The Pistons can still finish with a .500 mark this season if they win out and they're really not showing any signs of quitting on the season even though they've been eliminated from post-season contention. As for Grizzlies, the story is much different. Memphis has won only 3 games since late January! With that said, the odds of a Detroit win here are pretty high! As for the cover, note that only 5 of the Grizzlies last 25 losses have come by less than 6 points! The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games and are a much healthier team than the Grizzlies whom are missing a number of players and now just trying to wrap up on a disastrous season and look forward to next season. Look for Pistons to improve to 20-10 their last 30 non-conference games while Memphis drops to 3-27 SU (and 9-21 ATS) their last 30 games against Eastern Conference foes. 10* DETROIT |
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04-06-18 | Cavs v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have won 12 games in a row. They also have covered 10 in a row. The Cavaliers are in a back to back situation and had to use a lot of energy to come up with the late win versus the Wizards last night. This game has become even more important because of the battle for the #3 seed. If the Sixers win out (3 more games after this) they get the #3 seed. The key with the #3 seed is that the 2nd round match-up (should that team advance) would face the winner of the #2/#7 series rather than a #4 seed facing the winner of the #1/#8 series. Why is that so important? Because the #1 seed is Toronto (whom everyone wants to avoid) while the #2 seed, Boston, is further weakened by the loss of Kyrie Irving for the season. Philadelphia has proven extremely tough to beat at home as they've won 20 of 21 games played on their home floor since the calendar turned to 2018. The big difference between these teams is the 76ers play much better defense than the Cavaliers. With Cleveland also having tired legs in the 2nd game of a back to back, look for Philly to prevail here. The Cavs are 8-14 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 or more this season and also a long-term 11-18 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Keep in mind, not only did the Sixers win on the Cavs floor recently, Philly was blasted by 22 at home by LeBron and Company much earlier this season. Time for payback here. The 76'ers are 25-7 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 or more. Look for the Sixers overall 10-0 ATS streak to make it 11 in a row with another win and cover here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-04-18 | Heat -8 v. Hawks | Top | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks gave a valiant effort last night at Miami and very nearly got the upset win that would have prevented their division rivals from clinching a playoff spot. That said, it may seem like after losing by just a single possession on the road last night that Atlanta would definitely be the play now as a sizable dog at home. However, the Hawks not only gave a huge effort last night, they did it short-handed. Atlanta is not going to have much left in the tank tonight after, for the most part, playing a 6-man rotation yesterday. The Hawks had 6 guys who each played at least 33 minutes. Miami made full utilization of 9 guys last night as all 9 who played logged at least 20 minutes. Atlanta is simply a wounded team right now and the Heat will take advantage tonight. Miami still is seeking to improve their playoff seeding as right now they could finish as high as 6th or as low as 8th so they certainly won't lay down tonight. Look for the Heat to take advantage of tired Hawks as Atlanta plays their 3rd game in 4 nights while Miami had two days off before yesterday's win. The Heat non-covering win last night was just their 5th ATS loss in 15 divisional games this season! The Hawks are 1-12 SU (and 2-11 ATS) when they enter a game on a steak of 3 or more consecutive unders. 10* MIAMI |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 36 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Monday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 9:20 ET - After both favorites covered in the Final Four, don't be surprised if there is a lot of support for the underdog in this one. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the favorite here. Lets not forget Michigan's path to get here. They beat low seeded teams (Montana and Loyola), only beat Houston because the Cougars couldn't make free throws late, did blowout Texas A & M but barely got by a Florida State team that (for this season at least) has a photo of its likeness next to the word inconsistent in the dictionary. In all seriousness though, the Wolverines have not been nearly as impressive as the Wildcats have. I have said it before and I'll say it again, Villanova is a team on a mission ever since, after winning it all in 2016, they were bounced early from the tourney by Wisconsin last year. The Wildcats haven't been just beating teams, they've been dominating them. How many people felt good about Michigan winning the game yesterday (against an 11 seed!) when they were down 7 at the half? Or still down 5 past the midway point of the 2nd half? Give the Wolverines credit for the comeback win (and a cover that did burn me as I had the Ramblers) but Villanova is not Loyola and this one will likely be close for awhile (Michigan is strong defensively) but the Wildcats will ultimately pull away in convincing fashion. Villanova has not only won 10 straight games, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. Also, the Wildcats last 9 wins have all come by double digit margins. Look for this to be another one. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
THE College Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #814 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 8:45 ET - Kansas just beat Duke in overtime. That was a huge win and it took OT to get it. Now, of course, the Jayhawks have had ample time to hit reset and get ready for Villanova but the Wildcats have been the much more impressive team. Keep in mind Kansas has allowed about 44% from the field in their last 3 games. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have allowed 61 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and Villanova has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 37% from the field. The Wildcats defense is simply fantastic and, on offense they have 6 key cogs in the rotation that all handle the ball very well and can score well which creates a match-up nightmare for the opposition. Having already faced the two toughest defenses (including uniqueness of Mountaineers) of the Big 12 (Texas Tech and West Virginia), Villanova is more than ready to take on the Jayhawks. Jay Wright is a helluva strong coach and this team has been on a mission ever since winning it all in 2016 but then getting bounced early by Wisconsin in last year's Big Dance. Villanova will not be denied and we're getting great line value here with the low number on this one. The Wildcats are a long-term 39-2 SU when they enter off of a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. They are locked in on D right now and most all of their wins have come by at least a half dozen points this season. In other words, you can be very comfortable laying this! All 7 of the Jayhawks losses this season came by at least 5 points. 10* VILLANOVAÂ |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Saturday 10* Top Play Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 6:05 ET - The other match-up in the Final Four has a #1 seed matched up with another #1 seed and the line is the same as this line. Do you see my point? Here we have a #3 seed Michigan facing a #11 seed Loyola and we have the exact same line. So this is basically an invitation from the betting markets to take the much higher seed and lay a very small line. I am not buying it! The fact is that the odds makers (always very sharp and on top of their game) realize that this Loyola team is damn good and playing their best, most cohesive basketball of the season right now. The fact is that the odds makers had to put the line like this because they know they're going to have to keep the Michigan line low to balance the sharp money that will come in on the Ramblers. They fact is that Loyola has proven they can play with some top quality teams and if Michigan does defeat them I expect it to be by a single possession. Loyala has simply gone toe to toe with everyone they've faced. Michigan's record looks great but they haven't shot well in 2 of their last 3 games and also haven't shot well from beyond the arc in 3 of their 4 NCAA Tourney games. The Ramblers make a high percentage because they take quality shots and create good looks and high percentage chances. Loyola faced a tougher road to get this point and they've truly proven themselves. Michigan beat Houston by a single point and only because the Cougars didn't make free throws. The Wolverines beat the Aggies because of torrid hot shooting. But in their other game they faced Montana (much lower competition) and Florida State (a fragile, inconsistent team all season). This Ramblers team is anything but fragile or inconsistent! I'll gladly take the points and an outright upset will not surprise me in the least. 10* LOYOLA-CHICAGO |
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03-30-18 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 126-125 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Nuggets still fighting hard for a playoff spot. I know Denver enters off of back to back losses but they faced two of the hottest teams in the East - Philly and Toronto. Prior to those defeats the Nuggets had won back to back games and they enter this one on a 3-1 ATS run. Denver also has a rest edge here as they've been off since Tuesday while the Thunder are playing the 2nd game of a back to back as they will be coming into this one off of a game at San Antonio Thursday night. Oklahoma City is playing this game with revenge but they are 9-22 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Also, OKC is an ugly 2-13 ATS in divisional games this season. The Nuggets are 8-4 in divisional games this season. Combined edges of 43-15 (74%) favoring the road dog in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago +9 v. Northern Colorado | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Friday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Northern Colorado Bears @ 7 ET - The Bears are at home for this one but they are still over-priced in my opinion. Many will look at Illinois-Chicago's travel situation and Northern Colorado's hot ATS streak and they'll be all over the Bears here. I am going contrarian and grabbing the points with the hungry road dog in this Championship Game. The Flames have played a tougher schedule on the season and Illinois-Chicago has defended very well this season. UIC also have shut down the 3-ball very well in their last two games and this is what Northern Colorado has been relying on to achieve their blowout wins. The Bears aren't going to hit 17 of 30 threes in this one like they did against Sam Houston State Wednesday. Also, Northern Colorado has allowed 79.5 points per game their last 4 games. Teams can get spoiled when winning with offense. Subconsciously there is a tendency to let up on defense when things are going so well on the offensive end. This will prove to be the undoing of the Bears because they now face a Flames team that has allowed 61 points or less (and 33.3% or less from the field) in 2 of their last 3 games. From a technical aspect, I like the fact that UIC is 20-8 ATS in recent seasons (including 7-2 ATS and SU) this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for the Flames defense to be the difference here. As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, Northern Colorado is on an 11-16 ATS run including 2-4 ATS in recent seasons. The Bears are over-priced here. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Liberty | Top | 67-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Liberty Flames @ 7 ET - Even though UIC is without leading scorer Dikembe Dixson, they've been without him for both games of this tournament already and are adjusting just fine by going guard-heavier with their lineup. The fact is that Dixson wasn't a high percentage shooter and Illinois-Chicago has clearly picked up the slack. Yes, Liberty is home for this game but I feel they are getting far too much respect here. The line has gone from Liberty -5 to as high as a -6.5 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that UIC played a tougher schedule than Liberty and Illinois-Chicago is also a solid team defensively just like Liberty is. In fact, UIC is allowing only 32.8% from three point land while Liberty has allowed 36.6% from beyond the arc this season. With that said, I feel we're getting excellent line value here with the big points. UIC is a long-term 46-26 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games and that includes 5-1 ATS (and SU) this season. Liberty is a long-term 3-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They're now going from facing a Central Michigan defense that played very little defense to facing a UIC team that is absolutely going to challenge their shots here. That said, Liberty is facing a much tougher test here and is over-priced. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-27-18 | Spurs v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #762 Tuesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are off of 3 straight losses and that is certainly worthy of note here as Washington has not lost 4 straight games this entire season! The Wizards are a long-term 9-3 SU (and 10-2 ATS) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Washington also is playing this game with quadruple revenge as they've lost 4 straight versus the Spurs. This includes a loss last week at San Antonio where the Wizards gave up a big 3rd quarter run. Washington is 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and I expect them to get revenge here. The Spurs are 14-23 SU on the road this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 away from San Antonio. 10* WASHINGTON |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #777 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Utah Utes @ 7 ET - This line, as of early gameday morning, has the Hilltoppers as a very small favorite. As a result, you can play the money line in the -120 range on this one and that is what I am recommending here. The Utes are the bigger name school and will attract some attention here as a small dog as a result. However, this Hilltoppers team is extremely talented and playing extremely well. As a result, we're getting fantastic line value in this one with the ability to just take Western Kentucky to win. The Hilltoppers have been ultra impressive on both ends of the floor. They are off of a 92-84 win at Oklahoma State and are 12-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They've shot the ball very well in the NIT and have averaged 83.3 points on 54% shooting from the field. Also, Western Kentucky has allowed 38.9% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Utah is on a long-term 4-8 ATS run in tournament semi-final games and, in recent seasons the Utes have compiled a 6-10 ATS run in games played on a neutral court. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #742 Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco Dons (-) vs North Texas Mean Green @ 10 ET - Both teams faced a relatively easy path to reach this Championship Series of the CBI. However, don't be fooled by all the big points that North Texas has been putting up. They're facing a much tougher defensive test here. San Francisco played the tougher strength of schedule as their conference includes quality teams like San Diego and BYU and very strong teams like St Mary's and Gonzaga. I feel these tests during the season will help the Dons in terms of being ready to take down the Mean Green here. At home, San Francisco went 15-6 SU this season and that makes me very comfortable laying the short number here with the Dons. The Mean Green went just 6-11 SU in games away from home this season. 11 of their 17 losses this season came by 5 points or more. Also, long-term North Texas is 8-33 SU in road games and an incredibly poor 9-40 SU versus teams with a winning record. Look for the Dons to defend home court in Game 1 of this best of 3 series. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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03-25-18 | Blazers +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - Portland is off of rare back to back losses at home. The Trail Blazers had been one of the hottest teams in the league and I look for them to bounce right back here. Portland is a PERFECT 5-0 SU their L5 games away from home. Overall, in their last 18 games, the Trail Blazers have lost ATS only 3 times! In their match-ups with the Thunder this season they are a PERFECT 3-0 SU and ATS. Oklahoma City enters this game quite hot also but if you look closely at what they've done, the Thunder just don't win against playoff level teams very often at all. A big part of the reason they've been on a hot streak is because of facing a weak schedule. Most all of their wins have come against teams that wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today. In fact, the Thunder are just 4-8 SU their last 12 games against teams that are currently in a playoff position or just one game out (Denver). The point is that Oklahoma City has struggled when facing better teams and they're certainly facing one of those today. It is also noteworthy that the Thunder are just 9-21 ATS when playing with revenge this season and also an ugly 2-12 ATS in divisional games. Look for the Blazers to win outright for the 6th time in their last 6 road games and for the 4th time in their last 4 meetings with OKC. Grab the points but you shouldn't need them. 10* PORTLANDÂ |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #872 Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:25 ET - The Wildcats beat Alabama by 23 points despite hitting only 39.7% from the field. That certainly says a lot about just how good this Villanova team is. The Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and also 8-2 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games the past 3 tourneys combined. West Virginia has won and covered both their games so far in the tourney but they faced an Ohio Valley team and a Conference USA team. This is certainly a much stiffer challenge here and, keep in mind, the Mountaineers were only 9-9 SU their last 18 games prior to the Big Dance. As for Nova, they faced an SEC team Sunday and that is at least a tougher challenge than what West Virginia has faced so far. Also, the Mountaineers are 5-10 SU their last 15 as an underdog and 30 of the Wildcats 32 wins this season have come by a margin of 7 points or more. As you can, odds truly favoring a win for Nova by 7 or more and that gets us the cash here! We'll take it! 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #818 Thursday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:35 ET - The Aggies played the perfect game versus North Carolina and now the public is so enamored with Texas A & M that the line on Michigan in this game is being driven down from as high as a -4 to where it is now seems headed for a -2. Sure the Aggies looked great but everything was falling in for them and coming up roses while the Tar Heels couldn't buy a bucket. It was just one of those nights but now everyone over-reacts and you know where the value is now. Keep in mind, the Aggies beat a Providence team in round one that is certainly a good team but not great. Now A & M faces a Michigan team that has won 11 straight games and has allowed less than 35% from the field so far in this tourney. The Wolverines had a very tough shooting effort in their tight win over Houston in the 2nd round but Michigan had previously shot 44% or better in 8 straight games! Keep in mind, the Aggies (prior to getting hot in the first two games of this tourney) were held under 39.4% from the field in 3 straight games. I am not sold on this Aggies team but the world is and that has created value that is truly off the charts here with a Wolverines team that was seeded #3 with good reason! Big value here. 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-22-18 | 76ers -7.5 v. Magic | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are in a back to back spot here but they got up huge last night versus Memphis and were able to rest up for tonight's game at Orlando. Also, the Sixers first two back to backs this season have seen them win both and average 115 points per game. The Magic just don't have the offense to keep up here. Orlando has lost 7 of their last 8 games. The Magic were held to 88 points or less in 5 of those 7 defeats. To put that in proper perspective, Philly has been held to 88 points or less just once this entire season. In fact, the 76ers have scored 98 points or more in 12 straight games. That's why odds are high that another Philly victory by a double digit margin is on tap here. The Sixers have won both meetings with the Magic this season by double digits and the average margin of those games was 15 points. Another rout here. Orlando 4-10 SU and ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 10-4 SU and ATS versus Southeast Division opponents this season. Philly is 16-10 SU and 17-9 ATS this season when off of a non-conference game. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-21-18 | Nuggets -9 v. Bulls | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #761 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday this line was as high as double digits but as of early this morning it has settled in at -9 in most spots. Of course the majority are looking at this game and find it hard to justify laying this big of a spread on the road but, trust me, the odds makers knew what they were doing setting this line this high. This one has road rout written all over it. Denver is fighting for their playoff lives but off of back to back losses and that is why they will take out their frustration on a Bulls team that has nothing to play for at this point in the season. Also, helping our cause here is the fact that Chicago is quite banged up right now. Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS their last 5 meetings with the Bulls but only won by a single point in their non-covering win over the Bulls at home earlier this season. Chicago shot unusually well in that game and that won't happen again here. The Bulls have been held 45.1% or less from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. After the epic multiple-overtime loss at Miami Monday, Denver is fired up about responding huge here at Chicago. The Nuggets are a long-term 20-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. The Bulls have lost 10 of their last 14 games and the Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 wins. In other words, odds favor a big win and cover for the road fave in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-21-18 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #765 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 8 ET - Even though the Cowboys had a shot at the cover versus Stanford Wednesday, they certainly were fortunate to even have that end-game opportunity as they were unimpressive again. For the 4th straight game Oklahoma State was held under 41% from the field. I look for the cold shooting to catch up with them here because Western Kentucky comes into this game red hot. The Hilltoppers have shot better than 53.5% in each of their two games in this tournament and it is not like they played push-overs. Western Kentucky faced Boston College and USC. Also, prior to allowing 46.8% from the field against the Trojans, the Hilltoppers had held each of their 3 prior opponents to 38.5% or less from the field. Western Kentucky allowed just 59.3 points per game in those 3 contests. The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and also are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, Oklahoma State has gone 0-3 ATS this season when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKYÂ |
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03-20-18 | Penn State +2.5 v. Marquette | Top | 85-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #665 Tuesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) @ Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - Yes Marquette has home court edge but there is a reason they opened at nearly a pick'em in this game. Now that the line is all the way up to a 2.5 as of early gameday morning it is "go time" with this one. The big edge the Nittany Lions have here is on the defensive end. Additionally, Penn State is loaded with confidence because they've notched a number of significant victories away from home this season. PSU just got a big win at Notre Dame here in the NIT and, previous to this, the Nittany Lions defeated Ohio State 3 times this season (including on a neutral floor and in Columbus) and they also lost at Purdue by just 3 points! Penn State has proven multiple times that they can raise their level away from home against top quality competition. The Golden Eagles shoot the 3-ball well but so too do the Nittany Lions. The key is on the defensive end where Penn State has allowed less than 30.9% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 6 games. By comparison, Marquette has given up 35% or more from three point land in 8 of their last 11 games! On the season the Golden Eagles are allowing a dozen points more per game than PSU is. The Nittany Lions are 10-4 ATS in tournament games and 7-2 ATS their last 9 games versus teams that averaged 77 points or more per game. Marquette is 6-12 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more in their prior game. 10* PENN STATE |
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