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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-19 | Blazers -3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 132-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
NW Div #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - Great line value here with the Trail Blazers coming off a loss. Yes the Timberwolves recently upset Golden State but that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm for this slumping Minnesota team. Other than that win, the Wolves have won just 1 of their last 8 games and that victory came against lowly Memphis. Now Minnesota is hosting a Trail Blazers team that is angry off a loss and won't lack for focus here. Keep in mind the Blazers lost at Minnesota early this season so they'll be ready to exact road revenge here. Yes, Portland has won their two home match-ups with the Timberwolves this season but now it is time for road payback for that loss in mid-November. As mentioned above, the Blazers enter this game off a loss but, prior to that defeat, they had won 9 of their last 10 games. Yes, Portland is without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic but that is factored into this line. The fact is that the Wolves are without a number of players too as they enter this match-up and this is simply a matter of the much better in a great spot (off a loss) facing a team that has faded down the stretch run. The result is great line value with the short road favorite. Minnesota is 2-5 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. The Blazers are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record and roll again here. Each of the Trail Blazers last 28 wins have come by a margin of 4 or more points! Each of the Wolves last 14 losses have come by a margin of 5 or more points. Lay the short number! 10* PORTLAND |
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04-01-19 | DePaul +1.5 v. South Florida | Top | 61-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
CBI #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #701 Monday 10* Top Play DePaul Blue Demons (+) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - This is the first game of the best out of three CBI Championship Series. Most will look at this game and see the team with the overall better record at home and at roughly a pick'em price and just jump all over the host. Of course that is where contrarian viewpoints become so important. There is a reason this game is priced this way. The Blue Demons play in the Big East. The Bulls play in the American Athletic Conference. As a result of that, as well as the way their non-conference schedules were laid out this season, DePaul has played a tougher strength of schedule than South Florida. Of course that is factored into this line but much of the betting market overlooks that and looks at this one as "easy" to take the Bulls on their home floor. Of course, we all know how that typically plays out when something looks "easy". There is nothing easy in this business and that is why I generally maintain a contrarian viewpoint on games. We have plenty of support for a play on DePaul here. South Florida has won 3 straight games but they previously lost 7 of their last 8. Also, the Bulls have been held to 41% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Blue Demons are loaded with confidence right now on the offensive end as they've been shooting lights out. This is particularly true of late but the hot shooting run generally extends all the way back to mid-February. Just as you've seen with Auburn in the Big Dance, when a team gets hot with their shooting they can make a huge run. That is what the Blue Demons have been doing and it continues here. Yes they've been at home so far and now are on the road for this game but the Blue Demons have scored 73 points or more in 5 straight road games! More of the same expected here! 10* DE PAUL |
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03-31-19 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Duke | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Rematch Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #691 Sunday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - The Spartans seek revenge for last season's regular season loss to the Blue Devils and, of course, there is much more at stake with this match-up than last season's early season match-up. Michigan State has been dominating of late while the Blue Devils have been just getting by for close wins. What really factors into this is the line value as we're getting 2.5 points as of early Sunday morning and taking a look at Duke's last 14 games as a good sample size reveals a lot. The Blue Devils are 11-3 SU in those 14 games but 5 of the 11 wins have come by 2 or less points. So if you had +2.5 going against the Blue Devils you cashed in about half of their SU wins plus got the outright upset 3 times. Duke, plain and simple, is fortunate to be here. They are on a 3-11 ATS run but continue to attract bets because, well, their Duke! Truly they are a public team and everyone wants to be the #1 seed here and lay a short number. I am expecting an upset however and we've got some great technical support for backing Tom Izzo's team here. Michigan State is 9-2 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. The Spartans are also 11-2 ATS when off a game in which they scored 80 points or more. The Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Spartans certainly hold the edge in experience and I look for freshman-laden Duke's luck to run out in this one. 10* MICHIGAN STATEÂ |
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03-30-19 | 76ers -4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 118-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The markets sometimes help create value where it otherwise should not be and that is the beauty of a situation like this. First off this line was first up at an 8.5 but then got taken down because of Joel Embiid possibly missing this game. Now that it is confirmed that he will sit this game out to get extra rest the line has now plummeted to as low as a 4.5 this morning. The funny thing is did anyone pay attention to last night's games? The 76ers were NOT in action and were resting and getting ready for this game. As for the Wolves they were in the middle of a hard-fought overtime win over the World Champion Warriors last night! So now after knocking off the champs and taking OT to do it, the short-handed Timberwolves (a number of players out recently) are supposed to beat a Sixers team that has man-handled them in recent meetings? Yes I know about the "revenge against Jimmy Butler" angle but Philly is the far superior team and in a much better scheduling situation. This game is set up to be a road rout! Prior to beating GS last night, Minnesota had lost 10 of their 14 prior games. The 76ers enter this game having won 7 of their last 9 games. The Sixers are off a big win over Brooklyn and are 11-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. The Timberwolves are on a 15-25 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-29-19 | Auburn +6 v. North Carolina | Top | 97-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
March Madness Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #673 Friday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (+) vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET - Did you notice yesterday that the lines (compared to seeding) were, as you would expect, very small spreads on the 2 vs 3 match-ups and then, as you would expect, bigger spreads on the 1 vs 4 match-up and 1 vs 12 match-up. That said, why is it that today the biggest seed differential (1 vs 5) has the 3rd smallest spread? Both Michigan State (in a 2 vs 3) and Duke (in a 1 vs 4) have bigger spreads than the North Carolina - Auburn match-up? I'll tell you why. It is because the odds makers are very sharp and they know what their doing here. Don't be fooled by the line. I am expecting a Tigers upset but happy to grab all the points I can get should Auburn fall just short. The fact is that the Tigers live and die with the 3-ball but they have been very hot of late and very consistent and I expect that to be a key to the cover here. Note that Auburn has made 35% or better from 3 point land in 7 straight games. Not only is this all part of an 8-game stretch that has seen the Tigers only be dealt 1 ATS loss, it also holds significance when you look at an interesting not about the Tar Heels. Let's look at North Carolina's last 13 games. UNC went 8-5 ATS in those games. What was the key with the 5 ATS losses? The Tar Heels allowed 35% or better from 3 point land in all 5 ATS defeats! In their 8 ATS wins they held their opponent under 35% in all 8 covers! Now they face an Auburn team that has been red hot from beyond the arc (all on neutral floors too!) and I fully expect the Tigers to give UNC hell from beyond the arc in this one. By the way, North Carolina is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games against SEC opponents. The Tigers are a perfect 3-0 SU in neutral court games with a posted total in the 160s. Upset alert but grab the points for added insurance. 10* AUBURN |
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03-28-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - Enough is enough for the Sixers. After knocking off their nemesis (and long-time rival) Boston, they've lost back to back games at Atlanta and Orlando. Now they are back home and in need of a big win and the Nets are going to feel the wrath. Note that Philly is 5-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B SU losses. You read that right. The Sixers have NEVER lost 3 straight game this entire season and I don't expect that to change here either. However, what about the spread (currently 7.5) on this game? The fact is that the Nets are 7-26 ATS in their last 33 losses! In other words, when you're holding a Brooklyn ticket and they lose the game SU, you're only cashing your ticket about 20% of the time! I like the 76ers to roll big at home in this one as they also are playing this game with home loss revenge. That is a situation that has seen them go 37-19 ATS in recent seasons including 6-3 ATS this season. Also, when the Sixers are off a loss by a double digit margin, they've gone 37-18 in recent seasons including a superb 10-3 ATS this season. This one has home blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-26-19 | Creighton +4 v. TCU | Top | 58-71 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #619 Tuesday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - I am happy to challenge TCU here. The Horned Frogs have struggled in the biggest of games this season. TCU went a combined 0-7 against Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Kansas this season. The Horned Frogs enter this game off back to back wins and covers but they entered the NIT Tournament on a 3-11 ATS run. As for the Bluejays, they are peaking at the right time. With each win the confidence grows and Creighton enters this game having won 7 of their last 8 games both SU and ATS. Also, the lone loss during that stretch came by just 2 points and would be an ATS win based on the current number posted on this game. By the way, that number has grown too and I like fading the masses. The earliest number on this game had TCU at "just" a -3 so, of course, everyone jumped on the Horned Frogs at a small number on their home floor and drove the line to as high as a -4.5 in some spots. Creighton has a rest edge here as they have had 3 days off prior to this game while the Horned Frogs will be playing this game with just one day of rest. Note that TCU is a poor 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they've played a game with 1 day or less of rest between games. Give me the points with the rested team rolling with confidence right now. 10* CREIGHTON |
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03-26-19 | Magic +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Many will be looking to fade Orlando here because they are off a big win over the 76ers last night so it looks like the ideal spot to go against a team in a back to back situation. However, remember that we are now at the point in the season where there are very few "tomorrows" left for a team. In other words, the Magic need to win now or their season will be coming to an end. They are in a battle with Miami for the top spot in the Southeast Division and punching their ticket to the post-season. That said, there is absolutely not going to be a letdown here from the Magic in the slightest sense of the word. The time to win is now. I also like the fact that Orlando did have two days off prior to hosting the Sixers last night so they are truly not that fatigued here. Additionally, hosting Philly last night was just the 3rd game for Orlando in the past 8 days! As for Miami, though they have been off two days heading into this one they had played 5 games in 7 days prior to the 2-day break. In fact one could argue that the Magic should have the fresher legs here overall despite being in a back to back. Orlando has played less recently than Miami has. Also, not much distance separates these instate rivals so it truly should not come as a big surprise that the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Heat won and covered their most recent home game but that was preceded by a 4-9 ATS run as a host! Also, the Magic are surging with confidence as they bring a 5-game winning streak into this one. If Orlando falls just short here I like the fact we've got a handful of points to work with as well but I am expecting the outright upset here. The Magic are 16-7 ATS after scoring 115 points or more and also 12-6 ATS this season after a win by a double digit margin. Last night they held Philly without a field goal for a stretch of 12 minutes! Miami is 1-6 SU and ATS in Tuesday games and the Heat are an ugly 5-10 ATS in divisional match-ups this season. 10* ORLANDO |
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03-25-19 | Utah Valley +2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 57-66 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Monday 10* Top Play Utah Valley Wolverines (-) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - The Auburn Tigers are in the Sweet 16 in the Big Dance. What does that have to do with this play? Plenty! The Tigers barely survived their first round game when they beat the New Mexico State Aggies by just a single point. That is the same Aggies team that finished ahead of Utah Valley in the WAC this season. The Wolverines faced New Mexico State twice this season and lost to them by an average margin of just 6 points. Had the Aggies got by Auburn it might be New Mexico State in the Sweet 16 and the point is that Utah Valley - a team many may not follow that closely - is actually a quality basketball program. Look for the Wolverines to upset the Bulls here. South Florida barely survived Stony Brook to get to this point. Prior to that win, the Bulls had lost 7 of their 8 prior games. They've been on a late season fade and Utah Valley's strength of schedule is NOT that much different from USF on the season. That said, the fact that the Wolverines are 24-6 in their last 30 games and the Bulls are 2-7 in their last 9 games means plenty! 10* UTAH VALLEY |
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03-24-19 | Spurs v. Celtics -2 | Top | 115-96 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - While it is true that this is a back to back spot for the Celtics, there are a number of reasons to like Boston plenty in this situation and laying a very short number. The line has dropped from a -3 to a -2 so we're getting some extra value here for sure. Keys to this play include the fact that the Celtics blew a huge late lead in their loss at Charlotte yesterday. As a result, Boston ended up with their 3rd straight SU loss. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS the last 11 times they've entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Boston also has no shortage of motivation here. That's because the Spurs have held the upper hand in recent meetings and that includes the first match-up this season at San Antonio. The Celtics led that game by 6 at the half but then got outscored by 15 points in the 2nd half. It is payback time here. The Spurs are off back to back losses and their recent winning streak that grabbed a lot of attention was filled with home games and a majority of soft opponents. In other words, look for San Antonio to lose their 3rd straight game here as not only are they not at home, they are also certainly not facing a soft opponent. The Spurs have lost 4 of their last 6 road games and the only two wins came at Atlanta and Dallas. Those teams are a combined 37 games under .500 on the season! The Celtics are 98-42 at home including 26-11 this season. With those types of numbers and considering the low spread on this game, I am happy to lay the short number here. 10* BOSTON |
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03-24-19 | Buffalo +4 v. Texas Tech | Top | 58-78 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #869 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 6:10 ET - The Bulls are a #6 seed for a reason. Yes they come from the MAC but no one in the MAC was anywhere close to their level this season. They were the top team in the conference by a huge margin and that truly puts them at a level of being able to compete with any team in the nation in my opinion. Buffalo is deep and loaded with scoring depth and experience. That is the type of team that can challenge a solid defense like the Red Raiders have. That said, and with this line climbing from +3 to a +4, I am happy to grab the underdog value here with Buffalo. Note that the Bulls are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season. Long-term Buffalo also has some impressive technical support here as the Bulls are 10-1 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 points. The Red Raiders are 0-3 ATS (and SU!) in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 points. Certainly I respect the Texas Tech defense but will they have enough offense to keep up with a Bulls team that has a very balanced attack on offense? I don't think so as I know that the Red Raiders have been scoring much better for an extended stretch now but they've also faced some match-ups that were very favorable for them and this one does not fall into that category in my opinion. I am expecting the upset here but will grab the points for added insurance should the Bulls fall just short. 10* BUFFALO |
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03-23-19 | Villanova +3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #837 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 9 ET - Everyone is gunning for the national champions of course and it does make sense that the higher seed in this match-up would be the favorite. However, the result for us simply means exceptional line value. The defending champion Wildcats have been an underdog 5 times this season. The result has been a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in those games with 3 outright upsets. As for Purdue, they are a long-term 6-11 ATS in neutral court games where they are favored in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the most recent seasons in that role have seen the Boilermakers go 0-3 and two of the three losses were outright upsets which is what I am expecting here. Though Nova lost some key players from last season's team, they certainly are not without veteran leadership. Also, the Wildcats Jay Wright is absolutely one of the top coaches in the nation. This is a tough team to beat let alone beat by a couple buckets. Over the past 5 weeks Villanova hasn't been covering many of their games and this has resulted in diminished perception in the marketplace when it comes to the Wildcats. That leads to value in a spot like this because the Cats still have won 6 of their last 7 games SU and seem to be getting hot again at the perfect time. Purdue has not been shooting the ball well of late and they had lost 2 of 3 prior to knocking off an Old Dominion team that simply had a horrific shooting performance in their match-up Thursday. Also, the Boilers are on an 0-4 ATS run the last 4 times they've been a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Their struggles in that role continue here and I expect the upset but am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-23-19 | 76ers -8 v. Hawks | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Hidden Gem - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - I am calling this a hidden gem because the fact it is that on a Saturday when the NCAA Tournament is going in full force there is simply very little attention being paid to the NBA. That works in our favor here as this line should be much higher than an 8. This is a revenge game for Philadelphia as they suffered a home loss at the hands of the Hawks in January. While it is true that the 76ers are off a much needed revenge win over the Celtics, it is also true that they have had two full off days since that game and after facing the Hawks they face another team, Orlando, that also has a losing record on the season. The point is that even if the Sixers start off a bit sluggish in Atlanta their superior talent level is eventually going to lead to a double digit win. Keep in mind the Hawks also, it could be argued, are in a flat spot here. That is because they just rallied for an upset win over the Jazz on Thursday. Prior to that win the Hawks had lost 10 of their last 15 games. The 76ers enter this game having won 6 straight games. Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in games against teams from the Atlantic Division this season. Philly is a long-term 37-18 ATS (including 6-2 ATS this season) when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Sixers are 11-3 ATS when off a divisional game this season. In other words, even though they are off that big win over the Celtics, don't be surprised when the 76'ers eventually roll to a road rout win at Atlanta on Saturday night. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-22-19 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
1st Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #813 Friday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 9:50 ET - Having Kaleb Wesson back is a key for the Buckeyes and had he not had foul trouble and been limited to just 16 minutes versus Michigan State who knows how that eventual 7 point loss might have turned out. Keep in mind Wesson missed the final 3 games of the regular season and all 3 of those were losses. Certainly Wesson is an important player for Ohio State and he entered the Spartans game having scored 17 points or more in 3 of his 4 prior games. Also, Wesson had notched 5 steals, 7 assists, and 4 blocks in his 2 prior games. In his 5 prior games he had averaged 9.8 rebounds per game! The Buckeyes are 6-0 all time against the Cyclones and while I certainly respect Iowa State, did they use up all their magic in the feverish run through the Big 12 tourney? The fact is the Cyclones entered the tournament having lost 6 of their 8 prior games. I feel we're getting great line value here with the sizable points being offered to Ohio State. Iowa State is on an 0-4 ATS run in games with a posted total between 132 and 142 points. The Buckeyes physical style could take the Cyclones out of their game and Iowa State certainly is not known for their defense either so if their shots aren't falling on the other end they're in trouble here! We're getting line value here with Ohio State because they have an ugly ATS record on the season including a poor late season run at the betting window. Take advantage of the value with a team that is built well for some tournament upsets! 10* OHIO STATE |
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03-22-19 | Clippers v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games and that included knocking off the Raptors and the Bucks! Now they host a Clippers team playing the first game of an eastern road swing. These road trips tend to be tough on west coast teams. Even if the Clippers find a way to notch a road win here I expect it to come by the slimmest of margins. Certainly with the Cavaliers confidence growing with each late season win they are playing their best basketball of the season and have a chance at the outright upset here. Kevin Love has been cleared to play and that was a key for me in backing the Cavs here. The Clippers are off a win and cover but, prior to that big home win versus the Pacers, the Clips had failed to cover 3 straight games. The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. Los Angeles is 12-21 ATS when the Clippers enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. 10* CLEVELAND |
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03-21-19 | Jazz v. Hawks +8 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #586 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are off back to back losses (SU and ATS). However, Atlanta previously was on an 11-3 ATS run. Also, though the Hawks have lost 3 straight games SU, that included match-ups with the Celtics and Rockets. Of course the Jazz also fall into the "quality team" category but I like the fact that Atlanta is at home and catching Utah in the 2nd game of a back to back. Getting 8 points with the Hawks in a spot like this is a great value. The Jazz are on a 5-game winning streak both SU and ATS but are still just 3-8 ATS when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games. In other words, don't be surprised when their 5-game run comes to an end tonight (at least ATS). Look for the Hawks to improve to 11-6 ATS this season when they enter a game on a losing streak (SU) of 3 or more games. 10* ATLANTA |
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03-21-19 | Florida v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #778 Thursday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs Florida Gators @ 6:50 ET - The Gators are a popular choice for many due to having faced the tougher schedule this season since they come from the SEC. In typical contrarian fashion for me I am backing the Wolf Pack in this spot! The fact is that Nevada is a high-quality team and their weakness (depth/bench) won't be an issue here since they've had plenty of time off leading into this game. In fact, the Wolf Pack are 14-0 SU (11-2-1 ATS) the last 14 times they've entered a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. While Nevada has played an easier schedule than Florida one has to give them credit for their consistency and this Wolf Pack team has veteran players and Big Dance experience. They certainly won't be "star struck" by facing an SEC team on this stage. The Wolf Pack had one inexcusable performance (a loss to New Mexico) this season. Their other losses were to Utah State (28 wins) and San Diego State (21 wins). The Aztecs actually took 2 out of 3 from the Wolf Pack but Nevada's two losses to San Diego State were both by single digits while their win was by 28 points! Similarly, the Wolf Pack lost to the Aggies by just 5 points but their win over them came by 23 points! Nevada averages 80.7 points a game and certainly the Gators are an offensively challenged team. This game may be tight for awhile but eventually the Wolf Pack pull away and, with a small line on this game, that should translate to an easy cover. Florida is 6-18 SU (and 8-16 ATS) the last 24 times they've been an underdog. The Wolf Pack are 11-0 SU (and 8-2-1 ATS) when off a conference loss. 10* NEVADA |
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03-20-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
First Four Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #714 Wednesday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9:10 ET - Long-term the Sun Devils are 5-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in games against teams from the Big East Conference. Also, the Pac-12 certainly was not overly impressive this season. Arizona State finished the season stronger than St John's did as the Sun Devils won 6 of their last 8 games while the Red Storm lost 4 of their last 5 games. However, when it is a "win to get in" situation, things can change in a hurry. In other words, don't be surprised when the Red Storm really raises their level of play on the defensive end in this one. Prior to an ugly loss to Xavier in their final game of February, St John's held their 6 prior opponents to an average of 40% from the field and none of those 6 shot better than 43% from the field. The Sun Devils enter this game having allowed 45% from the field over their last 7 games away from home. Arizona State beat the Red Storm when they most recently met two years ago but St John's had 9 more shots from the field but had a rare poor shooting night while the Sun Devils shot well in that match-up. The recent trending of these two teams as well as the ASU win in their most recent meeting is resulting in too much respect being given to the Sun Devils here. Grab the value with the hungry dog and, keep in mind, you hear a lot about St John's Shamorie Ponds but when Mustapha Herron plays 27 minutes or more (and he is healthier again), the Red Storm have won 4 of their last 6 games. Herron averaged 22 points per game in the 3 most recent of those 4 wins. Look for him to come up big here while Ponds and LJ Figueroa also have big games to lead the way to an "upset" here. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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03-20-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Atlantic Division #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers purposely rested Joel Embiid last night in their win at Charlotte so he would be ready for this huge match-up tonight as the Sixers host the Celtics. The very first number that popped up offshore on this one had Philly -4.5 but the line has dropped down to as low as a -2.5 as of early game day morning. This is offering great line value on a Philadelphia team that has an extreme hunger about them when it comes to knocking off Boston here. Not only are the Celtics long-time rivals, not only did Boston knock the 76ers out of the post-season last spring, the C's also have won all 3 meeting this season! To say that Philadelphia "owes them one" is a colossal understatement. The fact is the Sixers owe them plenty and with Boston off a loss and having lost 7 of their last 13 games, the timing is perfect here. The Celtics games against quality opponents (Denver, Clippers, Golden State, Houston, Portland, Toronto, Milwaukee) have seen them go 1-6 SU since the All-Star break. In other words, with the exception of beating the Warriors, the only wins that Boston has been getting since the All Star break have come against weak foes. Also, the Celtics last 6 losses have come by an average margin of 14 points so the spread should not be an issue here. As for the 76ers, they have won 5 straight games. Also, the Sixers have won 14 of their last 20 home games. When playing with home loss revenge Philly is 37-17 ATS including 6-1 ATS this season. The Celtics have covered just 6 of their last 18 road games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple +3.5 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #672 Tuesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Belmont Bruins @ 9:10 ET - The Bruins have the better record and the betting markets strongly favor them in this match-up. Of course you know what that usually means! The fact is that the first number that popped up off-shore on this game had the line at very nearly a pick'em. Now it has been driven all the way up to a -3.5 on Belmont! This is offering tremendous underdog line value to a Temple team that has a long-time veteran coach (Fran Dunphy) and that has played a much tougher schedule this season than the Bruins. Yes Belmont has a very high-scoring offense but keep in mind the competition that they faced. Also, the Owls are 16-6 ATS their last 22 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game! The Bruins are 3-6 ATS their last 9 tournament games. Specific to the NCAA Tourney Belmont is a long-term 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS). The Bruins are a long-term 1-3 ATS when they are a neutral court favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Temple is on a 7-3 ATS run in games with a posted total in the 150s. Additionally, the Owls went 4-0 SU in games with a posted total in the 150s this season. They will call this one an upset when it goes into the books but truly the earliest of the first numbers posted on this game (right around a pick'em) had it right! Grab the extra value of the points but we should not need them. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-19-19 | 76ers -1 v. Hornets | Top | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have Boston on deck and also will be resting Joel Embiid tonight. As a result, many will be looking the way of the Hornets in this one tonight. However, Charlotte is 0-9 SU in their last 9 games against the Sixers. Also, the Hornets play in the weakest division in the NBA. Even though Charlotte fell short at Miami Saturday, they are still 10-5 against Southeast Division opponents. That means that the Hornets are a horrible 21-33 against the rest of the league! They now host a Sixers team that is 45-25 on the season! Also, Philly is 8-1 SU its last 9 versus teams with a losing record. The Hornets are 3-10 SU their last 13 versus teams with a winning record. Charlotte is also a long-term 14-36 ATS (16-34 SU) against Atlantic Division opponents. The Hornets enter this game on a 4-10 SU run and 3-11 ATS run. Also, even though Philly has the Celtics on deck, they are well aware of the fact that they are in a huge battle with the Indiana and Boston in terms of the 3,4,5 seeding in the Eastern Conference. Dropping to 5th means no home court edge in the opening series. In other words, with just a dozen regular season games left, every W counts. Look for the 76ers to get this W against an out-classed Charlotte team as the Sixers make it 10 in a row over the Hornets. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-18-19 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 114-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - Many believe the Western Conference is better than the Eastern Conference and it has been that way for many consecutive seasons. I feel we're getting great value here with a high-quality Nuggets team as a sizable underdog here. The Celtics are 10-17 ATS against the West this season. Denver enters this game having gone 16-8 SU against the East this season. Also, the Nuggets are 14-8 ATS (15-7 SU) this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive games. Boston is a long-term 11-20 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Celtics are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times they've allowed 115 points or more. Boston got the sweep last season (but only by a combined margin of 7 points) and the Nuggets are looking to return the favor this season after already winning at home by 8 points earlier in the season. Based on the above trends, the situational value here, and the fact the Celtics are a little banged up, don't be surprised if the road dog wins this one outright. Grab the points! 10* DENVER |
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03-17-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - Not only is Philadelphia 10-5 SU their last 15 games, 3 of the 5 losses came by 3 or less points. Of course that means that at +6.5 (the current line on today's game), the 76ers would be on a 13-2 ATS run. Certainly Milwaukee deserves plenty of respect and the Bucks are at home here. However, there isn't nearly enough respect being given to a Sixers team that is viewing this game as a chance to prove themselves against one of the best teams in the league. The Bucks have covered each of their last two home games but prior to that they were on an 0-3 ATS run in home games. Keep in mind, Milwaukee just returned from a 3-game road trip too. Conversely, Philly has won 3 straight games and has been enjoying the comforts of home. The 76ers have revenge from a loss by a double digit margin at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. Philadelphia is a much different team now than they were then when these teams met in late October. Keep in mind the Bucks were only favored by 5 in that game. Now they are favored by 6.5 even though the Sixers now have Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. You can see why the Sixers are offering great value here. Also, Philly is 38-18 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The Sixers are also 57-30 ATS when coming off a non-conference game. The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in a home game with a posted total of 230 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-17-19 | Cincinnati +5.5 v. Houston | Top | 69-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #653 Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Houston Cougars @ 3:15 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on Houston and has been bet up to a -5.5 as of early Sunday morning. Of course the public remembers that Houston has beaten Cincinnati in both meetings this season. However, not only is it tough to win 3 straight over a conference rival in the same season, there is also the matter of the point spread here as well. The Cougars blew the cover against Memphis yesterday and the same thing is absolutely possible here as the Bearcats come into this game rolling with confidence and fully capable of an outright upset. That said, if Cincinnati does fall short of the upset bid I fully expect the defeat to be by a margin of just a single possession. The Bearcats most recent loss was an ugly one versus Houston but 2 of Cincinnati's 3 prior losses came by 3 or less points. The average margin of defeat in the Bearcats 3 prior losses was just 4 points. Cincinnati had 13 more field goal attempts than Houston in the first meeting this season. The Bearcats simply had an awful shooting performance. In the 2nd meeting the Cougars made a ridiculous 12 of 23 three pointers. That resulted in Houston having 18 more points from beyond the arc and that certainly was the key difference in the 16-point victory. The Bearcats have a history of getting to the line much more than the Cougars in their match-ups with an edge of 122 to 69 in free throw attempts in the last 5 meetings. Don't be surprised when the Bearcats gut out an upset win here with the charity stripe also being an edge. 10* CINCINNATI |
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03-16-19 | Suns +2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 138-136 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:05 ET - The Pelicans have a winning record at home this season. The Suns are 6-30 on the road this season. So when this line opened up at nearly a pick'em, it comes as no surprise that everyone jumped all over New Orleans in this game and drove the line to as high as a -3 on the Pelicans. However, do you think the odds makers are fools? They knew what they were doing here! Anthony Davis (rest) and Jrue Holiday (abdominal) are listed as out for this game. Also, the Pelicans have lost 5 straight games overall and also 5 straight home games. The Suns have been playing better of late as they've actually won 5 of their last 9 games overall. Also, Phoenix is on a perfect 4-0 ATS run in road games and 2 of those wins were outright upset wins. Ride the hot team (Phoenix) in this one as they improve to 8-4 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. In the process, the Suns will drop New Orleans to 3-10 SU this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. 10* PHOENIX |
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03-16-19 | Memphis +8.5 v. Houston | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
AAC #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Saturday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 3 ET - I used the Tigers yesterday and they blasted a respectable Central Florida team. The Cougars are also off an impressive win but it came against a Huskies team that had a down season. I like this senior-laden Memphis team to give Houston all they can handle here. That said, we've got great line value with the points being offered. This one opened up at a 7.5 but is up to an 8.5 as of early this morning. The Tigers lost by double digits at Houston earlier this season but they've been playing much better on defense of late compared to how they were playing on that end of the floor in early January when they faced the Cougars. Memphis has held five straight opponents to 39.1% or less from the field. The Tigers held those 5 opponents to an average of 66 points per game and, keep in mind, Memphis is averaging a solid 81 points per game on the other end of the floor. The point is that the Tigers are currently getting the job done on both ends of the floor. Memphis is 7-2 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, the Tigers are 8-4 ATS in Saturday games this season. I look for Houston's record to drop to 3-6 ATS the last 9 times they've played a neutral court game with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. 10* MEMPHIS |
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03-15-19 | Kings v. 76ers -9 | Top | 114-123 | Push | 0 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have revenge from a loss at Sacramento earlier this season and, keep in mind, the Kings did sweep Philly last season. It is definitely payback time here and the Sixers are catching Sacramento at the right time to exact revenge. The Kings are off a hard-fought loss at Boston last night. Note that the Kings are an ugly 2-8 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the Sixers SU and ATS loss at Sacramento early last month certainly appears to be an aberration. The 76ers are a fantastic 7-1 SU and ATS in their other 8 games against Pacific Division opponents this season. Philly's Ben Simmons has been upgraded to probable for this game as well and a double digit victory is in the forecast here. The Sixers playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Kings are in a back to back. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-15-19 | Auburn -8 v. South Carolina | Top | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
SEC #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #817 Friday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs South Carolina Gameocks @ 3:30 ET - The Tigers lost their match-up at South Carolina in the regular season. In that match-up the Gamecocks Chris Silva had a season high 32 points and made 11 of 12 from the field. The rest of the team made only 19 of 52 attempts from the field. Also, the fact that game was at home also makes a difference. Though Silva had a big game in his road finale too, his 8 prior games away from home saw him average only 10.1 points per game. As you can see he is much more likely to be closer to 10 points in this game than the 32 he scored in the first meeting. Yes, the Gamecocks ended up being the higher seed in the SEC Tourney but the Tigers are the ranked team and for good reason. I look for them to blast South Carolina in the rematch. The Gamecocks have been held to 40% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have shot over 45.2% in 4 of their last 5 games. Look for Auburn to have their physicality on the increase throughout this tourney and they showed that in their win over Missouri yesterday. The Tigers know they need that again here against Silva and Company and I expect it to be on full display as they get payback big here! The Gamecocks have a strong ATS streak against the Tigers but it ends here. Auburn is the much better team this season and the first game was truly an aberration. The Tigers are on an 11-6 ATS run when playing with road loss revenge. South Carolina is 14-25 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. That is a long-term trend but the point is that oftentimes it proves better for momentum if you keep playing and sometimes rest leads to rust. The fact that Auburn was in action yesterday arguably could end up giving them the edge in this rematch with the rusty Gamecocks. 10* AUBURN |
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03-11-19 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -9.5 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #870 Monday 10* Top Play Central Michigan Chippewas (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 7 ET - Central Michigan just played at Western Michigan Friday. Though the game was decided by a 7 point margin, the Chippewas led the game by 15 points at the half. Keep in mind, this followed a 21 point beating that the Chips put on the Broncos when they hosted them in early February. Now, in conference tournament action, the Chippewas again are the host and another beating is likely here. Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Chips are 11-4 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. This line dropped from an early opener of 11 down to a 9.5 as of overnight heading into Monday. Western Michigan, versus teams that average 77 points or more, has gone 2-8 ATS this season. The Broncos are a long-term 7-14 ATS in first round tournament games. Western Michigan also is a poor 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played in the month of March. All signs point to a home blowout here. I normally don't lay big points but the edges here are too strong. Keep in mind the Chippewas won the turnover battle 20-8 when these teams met here last month! 10* CENTRAL MICHIGANÂ |
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03-10-19 | Pacers v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 3:35 ET - It looks like Joel Embiid will be back for this game. Even though the Sixers got blown out by the Rockets in their most recent game they truly were done in by poor shooting. If they had just shot "normal" Philly would have won the game outright. Instead it was a blowout loss but that helps with the line value here actually. The 76ers are a very manageable favorite against a Pacers team that they blew out by 24 in the most recent meetings at Indiana. The Pacers are on a poor 3-11 ATS run in their last 14 road games. The Sixers are very hungry for a win here and will be rejuvenated by the expected return of Embiid and the fact this game is at home. Philly is off back to back losses and they are a perfect 4-0 SU when off B2B straight-up losses this season. Indeed, the 76ers have not lost 3 straight games this entire season and I don't expect that to change here. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen them go 2-5 ATS this season. The Sixers are 36-18 ATS (including 9-3 ATS this season) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, Philly is 74-46 ATS long-term in home games. Look for a blowout by the host in this one with a winning margin by double digits expected. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-09-19 | Michigan +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #649 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Michigan State Wolverines @ 8 ET - Both teams have some injury situations but here is the key with that. The lone guy on the report for Michigan is Charles Matthews. Yes he is a starter and a solid player but he struggled and went 1 for 8 from the field with, overall, a very ugly stat line on the game, when these teams met two weeks ago in Ann Arbor. That was his 2nd straight poor game and now, without him, Michigan has won back to back games and played very well. In the loss to the Spartans two weeks ago the Wolverines actually had 10 more field goal attempts than Michigan State but were done in by some sub-par shooting and Matthews was a key contributor to that. With the Spartans currently without Joshua Langford for the season plus Nick Ward (hand) and Kyle Ahrens (back) also having issues, I would argue that the Wolverines injury situation is currently much better than that of the Spartans. At the same time, the fact this game is at Michigan State means we get additional line value as we can grab Michigan as a significant dog here. I'll gladly challenge the Spartans to win this game by more than a single possession (current line 3.5) as the fact is I expect the Wolverines to get their revenge. Michigan had won 3 straight in this series prior to the loss two weeks ago. Michigan State is on a 6-14 ATS run in Saturday games. The Spartans are on a 4-8 ATS run in March games. Michigan is on a 17-2 SU run in March games. The Wolverines also are on a sparking 14-6 ATS run as an underdog! 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-08-19 | Minnesota v. Maryland -7 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #854 Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7 ET - With the Terrapins off back to back losses and the Golden Gophers off back to back wins, the set up here is perfect. We're getting value with a number kept lower than it should be considering this is a situation where Minnesota should get blown out on the road at Maryland. The Terrapins are 6-2 ATS this season when off a SU loss. Also, Maryland has not lost 3 straight games all season. Keep in mind, the Terrapins last two games were at Penn State and then hosting Michigan. Certainly those are not easy match-ups. Also, Maryland is now hosting a Minnesota team that, prior to winning their most recent road game, had lost 6 in a row away from home. The average margin of defeat in those road losses for the Golden Gophers was 11 points! Minnesota is a long-term 18-33 ATS as road dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. In games with posted total ranging from 131 to 139.5 points, the Terrapins are on a sparkling 9-1 ATS run. The host in this one is the much better shooting team and also the better team defensively. Factoring all that in there is great value being offered here with this very manageable line. 10* MARYLAND |
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03-07-19 | Temple +1.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Thursday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 7 ET - While it is true that the Owls have a huge game on deck, they are also well aware of the fact that the game versus Central Florida will become much less important if they don't take care of business at Connecticut. The Huskies certainly have not been the same team since Jalen Adams got hurt. UConn is coming off a win versus South Florida Sunday but that victory was preceded by 6 straight losses. Dating all the back to December 22nd, the Huskies have managed back to back wins only ONCE! You can see that, after the win over the Bulls, the odds favor a loss here versus the Owls. As for Temple, they are off a non-covering win versus Tulane. What is noteworthy about the Owls season is they have had only one standalone victory this entire season. In other words, when they get a W it is normally the beginning of a nice streak for Temple and they are hell-bent on closing the season with 3 straight victories. Before even worrying about the Saturday match-up with UCF, the Owls know they need this one. All signs point to them getting it. The Owls are 4-0 SU and ATS this season as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Huskies are 1-3 SU this season when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. Connecticut is also 6-12 SU (and 5-13 ATS) when in that situation the last few seasons. UConn has been held to 63 points or less in 5 straight games and also managed only 63 in the first match-up with Temple this season. The Owls have scored 70 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-06-19 | 76ers -5 v. Bulls | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Both teams in a back to back spot here. This line opened up at a -6 and dropped to a -5 on Philly. Although the Bulls have won some games recently those victories have almost all come over poor teams with losing records. One exception was the Celtics but Boston was in a funk at the time. The fact is that Chicago is an ugly 4-24 SU this season in games against teams with a winning record. The 76ers are a solid 17-6 SU this season in games against teams with a losing record. You can see why the likelihood is high that the Sixers get the win. That said, the pointspread dropping to a -5 offers significant value here. 38 of the Bulls 46 losses this season have come by a margin of at least 5 points. Philadelphia has had a lot of rest prior to this back to back situation so that sets them up well. Yesterday's win over Orlando was just the 3rd game for the 76ers in the past 8 days. The Bulls, conversely, will be playing for the 4th time in 6 days. Chicago is 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU!) in their last 20 home games that had a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are on a 23-12 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-06-19 | LSU +1.5 v. Florida | Top | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Wednesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Florida Gators @ 7 ET - This is a triple revenge spot for the Tigers. Not only did they lost to the Gators in their meetings each of the last two seasons, LSU also lost this season's first match-up (in OT) versus Florida two weeks ago. The fact is that the Tigers are a perfect 8-0 on the road in SEC action this season and have been playing extremely well overall with only two losses in their 19 games dating back to mid-December. The Tigers have one of the best point guards in the nation and behind him is a freshmen who played very well during his recent two game absence. The depth of LSU at the point is a key to why this offense functions as well as it does. While the Gators are averaging only 68.3 points per game on the season, the Tigers have averaged 81.8 points per game this season. The Gators are off a home loss to Georgia. Of course that should mean a bounce back is expected here. However, Florida has been on a money-burning stretch for an extended stretch now as they've failed to cover 9 of their last 12 games. LSU is on a 4-1 SU and ATS run as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Gators are 3-11 ATS in home games this season. Florida motivated here by hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid this season but Tigers highly motivated by revenge as well as being in the driver's seat for finishing at the top of the SEC standings for the regular season. 10* LSU |
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03-04-19 | Texas v. Texas Tech -8 | Top | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #868 Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ 9 ET - The Longhorns are still without the suspended Kerwin Roach. Though they won Saturday versus Iowa State, they lost their two prior games without him. I know this spread may seem "big" but it is not without support. The Longhorns and Red Raiders have a huge rivalry and the Horns had dominated Texas Tech in games played in Austin prior to the Red Raiders road win earlier this season. How does that relate to this game? The fact is that Texas Tech won't hesitate if given the chance to blowout the Longhorns in Lubbock. I feel this one is set up perfect for that to happen as the Horns do battle without their leading scorer. Texas has scored very well in their last two games but I consider that an aberration as they shot the ball ridiculously well. Prior those two games the Horns had averaged just 66.7 points in their 3 prior games and now they face the top defense in the Big 12. Texas Tech enters this game having won 7 in a row and 6 of those wins came by at least a dozen points! Though the Red Raiders most recent home win came by just 4 points, their 4 most recent home wins prior to that each came by 19 points or more! The Longhorns are 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS their last 13 games with one day of rest or less between games. The Red Raiders, same parameters, are 8-4 SU and ATS their last dozen and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season! Additionally, Texas Tech is 7-0 SU (and 5-1-1 ATS) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points in recent seasons. Red Raiders are highly motivated for #1 spot in Big 12 and put a beating on the short-handed Horns here. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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03-04-19 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Nuggets and that includes covering both match-ups this season. Those games took place in late December. The Spurs were favored by 4 when they hosted the Nuggets the day after Christmas. Now, the first lines that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon had Denver as a 2 point favorite. Of course the markets are jumping all over the perceived "mistake" and have now moved the line to San Antonio being the favorite. I understand the perception but that doesn't mean I agree with it! The Nuggets are only a game over .500 in road games this season while the Spurs are 24-7 on their home floor this season. But I am here to tell you that the Nuggets are the much better overall team in comparison with this season's version of the Spurs. Yes San Antonio is off back to back wins but they previously lost 7 of their 8 prior games. I know those games were on the road but the Spurs also got blown out by double digits by the Nets and Knicks! Catching one of the best teams in the league now off back to back losses and we're not even having to lay any points (thanks to being on the road and thanks to the market action), the Nuggets are the play here. They led the Spurs by double digits at half when these teams most recently met but had a rare bad game in terms of turnovers and allowed San Antonio to close that gap in the 2nd half and lose by just 3 points. That result also now giving us some line value here as the Nuggets have substantial edges all over the floor in this match-up. The last 6 times the Nuggets have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games SU, they've gone 5-1 SU and I expect another win here in that situation. The Spurs, prior to back to back covers against the Pistons and Thunder, had gone 1-10 ATS in their 11 previous games! By the way, San Antonio was outshot by a combined 16 shots from the field in the games against Detroit and OKC. That catches up with the Spurs in this one and the Nuggets pull away as this game gets into the latter stages. 10* DENVERÂ |
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03-02-19 | Warriors v. 76ers +5 | Top | 120-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on the Warriors and quickly jumped up to a -5 as the markets are loving backing Golden State here since they have revenge from earlier this season. Also, with Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic out for the Sixers that has captured attention as well. What is getting overlooked however is that the Warriors are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and Klay Thompson is dealing with a sore knee. They may rest him here. Additionally, the Sixers are at home and playing for just the 2nd time in 5 nights. This is part of a stretch where Philadelphia plays only 3 games in 8 days as they have two more days off after this game. From a scheduling standpoint this situation is a great one for Philly and you know that the Wells Fargo Center will be rocking with the defending NBA champs in town. The Sixers are hungry to prove they are a legitimate threat for the NBA title. Even without Embiid, this team is highly talented with Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. The betting public loves the Warriors but Golden State is on a 2-10 ATS skid. The Sixers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against Pacific Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games overall and one of those two losses came by just points. We're catching 5 here and the home dog Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset as the Warriors have lost 4 of their last 6 SU. One of those two Golden State SU wins came by just two points. Grab the generous points being offered here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-02-19 | North Carolina -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #665Â Saturday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (-) @ Clemson Tigers @ 6 ET - Clemson is at home here and they've gone 12-3 at home this season while North Carolina is 10-3 away from home on the season. Of course that is what is keeping this line lower than it should be. I expect the Tar Heels to blast the Tigers here. There are a number of key factors that support that theory. One of which is that UNC lost here by 4 last season. Clemson hit 15 of 30 threes in that game. That had a lot to do with it and the Tar Heels had won 10 straight over the Tigers before that game. In other words, this is a big-time payback spot. In games against the ACC teams that currently have 20 wins, North Carolina lost to Virginia but beat Duke, Virginia Tech, NC State (twice), and Florida State. Now lets talk about how Clemson has done in facing top tier teams. The Tigers did beat Virginia Tech but they have lost to Florida State (twice), Duke, Virginia, and NC State. You can easily see that when it comes time to step in big games this season the Tar Heels have risen to the occasion while the Tigers have faltered. Look for that to be the case again Saturday. UNC still has a shot to finish at the top of the ACC if they win out and, if you were worried about motivation here, the fact the Tar Heels lost here last season dismisses that notion. As for Clemson they are surely motivated too but they have proven time and time again this season they can not beat the top tier teams in the ACC. In fact, I should have mentioned the other two 18-win teams - Syracuse and Louisville. Clemson lost to both of them as well. So the over-rated Tigers are 1-7 against top ACC competition. The Tar Heels beat Syracuse and went 1-1 against Louisville. So the deserved #5 team in the nation is a combined 7-2 against top ACC competition. Considering these factors, plus revenge, plus a short number to lay here, and we've got tremendous value here with the road favorite. Clemson is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season. The Tar Heels are 9-2 SU and ATS in road games this season. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-01-19 | Blazers +5 v. Raptors | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Friday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are off wins over the Celtics. Even though the Raptors have an extra day of rest here in comparison with the Blazers, the fact is that the win over Boston was a much bigger victory for Toronto than Portland. Of course that is because the Celtics are divisional rivals of the Raptors. Note that the first 12 times this season that Toronto has been off a divisional game, they've covered their next game just 3 times. That is a poor 25% ATS rate for the Raptors when off a divisional game this season and, again, that win over Boston wasn't just "any" divisional game! Some will be looking to Toronto to get revenge here too because they lost the first game at Portland this season. However, that game against Boston meant a helluva lot more to the Raptors than this game does. Also, Toronto swept the Trail Blazers last season so it is Portland that is now looking to return the favor this season. The Blazers enter this game red hot as they are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run. As for the Raptors, they had failed to cover 5 straight games before the big win over the Celtics. Look for Toronto to drop to 4-9 ATS in Friday games this season while the Blazers add to an impressive record in March games that is 25-6 SU and ATS the past two seasons! Also, the Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS (and 8-0 SU!) against Atlantic Division opponents. 10* PORTLAND |
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03-01-19 | Rhode Island v. Dayton -7 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Dayton Flyers vs Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - The earliest number on this game was a -9 yesterday. As of this morning the line is down to a -7 on Dayton. I understand what the markets are looking at here. This is a revenge spot for the Rams considering the Flyers routed them on their home floor 3 weeks ago. However, the thought that Rhode Island automatically bounces back and gets the cover here is not that well-founded. The fact is last season the Rams beat the Flyers by double digits in both games! In other words, how these games play out has a lot to do with the talent of each team each season and, this year, it is the Flyers turn to get the sweep! They lost by 25 at Rhode Island last season and also were beaten by the Rams by 14 in Dayton. Again, the same season revenge is over-played. If anything, it is the Flyers (the far superior team this season) that really has revenge here as they remember what happened on their home floor last season. Another key to the value here is Dayton is off a game against one of the Atlantic Ten's worst teams and has another weak foe on deck. In other words, the Flyers are fully focused on the Rams here. Dayton has been shooting the ball extremely well and that includes from beyond the arc particularly when on their home floor. Rhode Island is off a rare win where they shot the ball well but they faced a bad George Washington team. Prior to that victory, the Rams were held to 37.5% or less from the field in 5 straight games! RI went 0-5 SU and ATS in those games. Rhode Island is 2-9 SU and ATS in their 11 lined road games this season. The Flyers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their 8 line games against teams with a losing record this season. Home blowout on tap in this one! 10* DAYTON |
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02-28-19 | 76ers +8 v. Thunder | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - With big men Joel Embiid and Boban  Marjanovic sidelined for this one, there has been a huge jump in the line. The very first number that was posted offshore yesterday was a 5 and now this line is up to an 8. Keep in mind, the Sixers still have ton of talent on the floor with Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. Also, Jonah Bolden and Mike Scott are capable of putting up some solid numbers with both Embiid and Marjanovic expected to be out for this game. We're getting a ton of value here with the big points being offered. The Thunder stole one from the Sixers last month in Philly and the 76ers haven't forgotten that game. The fact is that Oklahoma City has had the Sixers number in recent years but of course this season is the best 76ers team they've faced in a long time. Again, even with Embiid and Marjanovic out, I don't see this being an easy win at all for the Thunder. Philly is hell-bent on getting revenge here and Oklahoma City is on an 0-4 ATS skid as the only SU win they have during this stretch came by a single point. For those of you that like statistical odds too, the fact is that there is an interesting pattern with Philly this season. They have 39 wins on the season and, amazingly, they have had only 3 standalone wins. What I mean by that is when the Sixers are off a win that followed a loss they almost always follow it with another win. They have 14 streaks of 2 or more wins. They have had only 3 occurrences where they produced just a single win and all those were in calendar year 2018. In other words, don't be surprised if Philadelphia shocks and gets the outright upset win here but, of course, I am grabbing the points with the 76ers as added insurance! The Sixers are 36-17 ATS including 5-1 ATS (and SU!) this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Thunder are 1-9 ATS (and 3-7 SU!) when off a division game. Could be a shocker in OKC tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-28-19 | Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 65-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #667 Thursday 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - They were ahead by 17 points with under 3:10 to play. They were ahead by 8 points with under 1:20 to play. They were ahead by 6 points with under 45 seconds to play. They were ahead by 4 points with under 35 seconds to play. They ended up losing the game by a single point. Of course I am talking about the Monarchs first match-up with the Roadrunners which also took place at UTSA and was played in late January. That makes this a major revenge spot for Old Dominion as that game was truly one of the most insane finishes of the entire college basketball season and the Monarchs were on the wrong end of it. Because this game is again at San Antonio we're getting line value here as we don't even have to lay any points to have Old Dominion with big-time revenge on their side. Why are they again meeting in San Antonio? It is because Conference USA made a decision to go to a bonus play-in system this season which then sets the seeding for the upcoming conference tourney. There are 3 groups of seeds and Old Dominion and UTSA are in the group that is seeded 1 through 5. That means Monarchs and Roadrunners can each finish as high as #1 or as low as #5 in the seeding for the upcoming tourney. Old Dominion already won their first game Saturday. For UTSA, this is their first game of the play-in schedule. Not only do the Monarchs badly want revenge here, they also are going for the #1 seed in the tourney. Old Dominion has proven themselves as the top team in CUSA this season and they will show that on the floor in San Antonio tonight. The Monarchs have won 11 of their last 12 games and the lone loss was the ridiculous 1-point defeat at UTSA. The Roardrunners are just 5-5 their last 10 games and that includes that miracle win over Old Dominion. I am well aware of the fact that UTSA is on a 10-game winning streak on their home floor. But that is all the more incentive for the better team in this match-up as they get payback in a major way tonight. Also, the Roadrunners will be very rusty here as they have not played since the 16th - a span of nearly two weeks! 10* OLD DOMINION |
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02-27-19 | Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (-) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 7 ET - This is a great value situation because everyone is a little down on the Vols right now while the Rebels have been getting a little extra attention thanks to some recent winning. Here is the key with those Ole Miss wins however. The Rebels have won 5 of their last 6 games but 2 of the wins came against Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-13 in SEC action! The most impressive win would be over Auburn (7-7 in SEC) but the other two of the five wins came against A & M (5-10) and Missouri (3-12). In other words, Ole Miss has been helped by their schedule of late. As for the Volunteers, they have faced a tough schedule and the blowout loss at Kentucky recently is still fresh in the minds of the betting public. Also, Tennessee is off a very tight OT loss at LSU in their most recent games. So while it is true that the Vols have lost 2 of their last 3 games it is also true that those defeats came against a pair of teams that are EACH 13-2 in SEC action! Prior to the SU and ATS loss at LSU, Tennessee had been a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 or more games. They get back on track in a big way here against an Ole Miss team that is over-valued right now. The Rebels have been a hot ATS team this season but they are on a long-term 8-14 ATS run in February games and the fade is on here! The Volunteers have won and covered 3 straight against Mississippi and get the job done again here in a road rout. 10* TENNESSEE |
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02-26-19 | Toledo +1 v. Ball State | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (+) @ Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - The Rockets have only lost 2 home games all season. Why am I mentioning home games when they are on the road here? I mention it because one of the two home losses Toledo had was to the best team in the MAC, Buffalo. However, the other home floor defeat was at the hands of these Cardinals. In other words, it is payback time. Actually that payback has been a long time coming too! Ball State has beaten the Rockets five straight times. Some will look at this line and say it is easy just to take the Cardinals on their home floor to get the win. As you know, nothing is ever that easy and I love the value here we're getting with revenge-minded Toledo. Keep in mind, Ball State has been struggling for an extended stretch. The Cardinals have lost 9 of their last 13 games SU and 10 of their last 13 ATS. Ball State has been held under 40% from the field in 3 straight games and has shot 19% from 3-point land in their last 3 games as well. In other words, the Cardinals are slumping badly. The Rockets are offering significant value here because they are on an 0-3 ATS run at the betting window and that has the betting markets holding a negative opinion of them at the moment. Keep in mind this is a Toledo team that has already surpassed the 20 win mark this season. Additionally, since early January back to back losses to Ball State and Buffalo, the Rockets have won 9 of their past 12 games! Toledo is 4-2 SU and ATS in their last 6 road games. When off a SU win versus a conference foe this season, the Rockets have gone 6-2 SU and ATS. The Cardinals are 2-8 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 or less points. That includes Ball State going 0-3 ATS and SU this season in this situation. More of the same here. 10* TOLEDO |
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02-25-19 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -12.5 | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #862 Monday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7 ET - I successfully played against the Noles on Saturday with North Carolina and the Tar Heels delivered the beating I expected. Now it is the Seminoles turn, however, to be on the right side of a thrashing. To many bettors this line will look to big but Florida State should win this game by 20. Certainly FSU is fired up and they have but one loss on their home floor this season while Notre Dame has managed only 2 road wins this season. You can see who is very likely to win this game but, now, what about the all-important cover? As long-time followers know I rarely lay big points. When I do it has to be a situation where my team is not going to take their foot off the gas. That is the case here. Florida State didn't just lose on Saturday, they got embarrassed. Back home now with a quick turnaround chance to redeem themselves and with the eyes of the College Basketball World on them, the Seminoles are going to put on a show in this one! They are highly talented, so much moreso than the Irish, and had won 8 in a row SU (7-1 ATS) prior to the loss to UNC. As for Notre Dame, they are on a 3-11 SU run and 4-11 ATS run. 3 of their last 6 losses have come by 15 points or more. The Seminoles last 3 wins all came by 13 points or more. The average margin of those victories was 19 points. This line was as high as 13.5 and has dropped to a 12.5 in early market activity. I like the value here in a game I expect FSU to win by 20. The Fighting Irish are 3-9 ATS last 12 times they were off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less. The Seminoles are a long-term 9-4 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. 10* FLORIDA STATE |
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02-24-19 | Spurs -8.5 v. Knicks | Top | 118-130 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Sunday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are the worst team in the NBA. Yes, this is a significant number of points to lay on the road, especially with a team that has been struggling ATS. However, the Spurs did play quite well at Toronto Friday and that is why they got the cover and very nearly got the outright win. Keep in mind that was with LaMarcus Aldridge scoring only 6 points and certainly he was not himself in that game. Aldridge has been upgraded to probable for this game. Considering he is highly likely to play much better and considering the Spurs are hungry for a win and facing an awful Knicks team, you can see why I am expecting a road win by a double digit margin in this one. The Spurs are on an 18-9 ATS run in Sunday games including 4-2 ATS this season. San Antonio is on an 18-8 ATS run against Atlantic Division foes including 5-1 ATS this season. Even though the Knicks are off a double digit loss and would love to bounce back here, note that New York is 9-19 ATS this season when they are off a game which they lost by a margin of 10 points or more. Note also that this will be New York's 29th home game this season. So far the Knicks have only 9 ATS covers this season on their home floor! The Spurs are hungry and they know they need this game tonight as tomorrow's game at Brooklyn is a much tougher match-up than this one. Coach Gregg Popovich has the troops ready for this one. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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02-23-19 | Delaware v. Drexel -3 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
PA Insider GOW - Rickenbach CBB Game #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (-) vs Delaware Blue Hens @ 5 ET - One of the Blue Hens best players is guard Kevin Anderson. Keep in mind he was a Rookie of the Year for the Colonial Athletic Association. Anderson, a sophomore, has missed the past two games with a knee injury. He is listed as questionable here but even if Anderson does play how effective would he be? Keep in mind he has a history of knee problems as he missed all but 11 games of his rookie season because of a knee injury. Delaware certainly wants to be careful with him and his absence or ineffectiveness really hurts the Blue Hens. They have been without him the past two games and they had to go to double OT to beat a bad Towson team and then they followed that up by losing to James Madison. The Blue Hens beat the Dragons earlier this season at Delaware but only by a single point and Anderson had 16 points in that one point win. Without Anderson, or with him limited, the Blue Hens certainly could be in trouble with the rematch being at Drexel. The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in this series. Granted there have been some tight wins in that run but the Dragons are favored by just 3 points here. That certainly bears mentioning as 9 of Delaware's 12 losses this season have come by 6 or more points this season. As for Drexel wins, only 1 of the 12 has come by a margin of less than 4 points. Look for the Blue Hens to drop to 2-7 ATS this season in Saturday games. The Dragons are 8-1 SU and ATS as a favorite this season! 10* DREXEL |
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02-22-19 | Columbia v. Pennsylvania -7.5 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Friday 10* Top Play Penn Quakers (-) vs Columbia Lions @ 8 ET - The Quakers are still in the hunt for finishing in the top 4 of the Ivy League and qualifying for their post-season tourney. The Lions are the worst team in the conference by far. With Penn also entering this game off a tough OT loss to Harvard last week, the set up is perfect here for a home blowout win. Admittedly the Quakers have underachieved in Ivy League action thus far but they entered last weekend having had just one home game in league action thus far. Penn's schedule has been tough to say the least. They nearly pulled off the much-needed 2-0 sweep last weekend but back to back OT games (they beat Dartmouth in OT Friday) proved to be too much as you would expect. The Crimson are a tough team to face in a spot like that. Penn was 6-2 at home prior to losing to Harvard and now will take advantage of a facing a Columbia team that is just 1-8 in road games this season. I am well aware of the fact that the points seem high here but we've now seen this line drop from a 9 to a 7.5 and we're being offered great value here as the Quakers are ready for the much needed big blowout win that can keep their season alive. Keep in mind, Penn gets Cornell (5-3 in league action) tomorrow! I am well aware of the fact that both these teams are known for playing in tight games but I am calling for a win by double digits here as the Lions have shot poorly in back to back games and those were both at home! As for the Quakers, they had shot very well in 3 of their 4 games prior to the tough back to back OT situation. The hot shooting resumes tonight for the home team. 10* PENN |
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02-21-19 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - The fact that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid for this one is keeping this line to a very manageable number considering Philly is on their home floor and the Heat have been struggling. The 76ers, even without Embiid, are still the much more talented team here. Philadelphia has Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, and JJ Redick. Additionally, the Sixers new reserve big man Boban Marjanovic will step up with Embiid being out. Philly is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've hosted Miami. Of course the Heat have revenge here as they were ousted from the playoffs by the Sixers last spring but, keep in mind, they had that revenge on their mind earlier this season too when they hosted the 76ers and yet they still lost by double digits at Miami! The Heat enter this game having lost 6 of their past 8 games. The Sixers are off a win and have won 14 of 21 in the New Year. Philly did lose their most recent home game but had won 9 of 12 prior on their home floor. 8 of the 76ers last 9 wins have come by 7 or more points and I see every reason to expect another win by at least that margin tonight! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-17-19 | Villanova v. St. John's +4 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #828 Sunday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) vs Villanova Wildcats @ 5 ET - Great line value here as a line that opened up as low as a -1.5 on Villanova is all the way up to as a high as a -4 on the Wildcats as of early Sunday morning. This is great home dog line value being offered to the Red Storm. While it is true that St John's lost the first meeting this season (at Villanova), the Red Storm actually had a double digit lead in the 2nd half of that game! Also, though the Wildcats are off an 18-point win versus Providence that game was much closer than that for much of the contest. In their prior game, Nova had to rally to still lose by a point at Marquette. The point is that the Cats continue to be a covering machine but they've truly been quite fortunate in recent contests and here is where that luck runs out. I actually expect an outright upset here for the Red Storm but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered as added insurance. Note that St John's Shamorie Ponds has had great success against the Wildcats in his career and also is known for huge performances in big games. Additionally, he is coming off a rare poor game and the fact that the Red Storm still won that game (versus Butler) says a lot. The fact is that St John's is very talented (much more than just Ponds) and they also play physical basketball and the Wildcats have been having trouble on the boards for long stretches in recent games. This one will be a fierce battle and I see the Red Storm taking advantage of this marquee opportunity on their home floor against a ranked rival. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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02-15-19 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Toledo | Top | 88-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #877 Friday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) @ Toledo Rockets @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Rockets and, of course, they are happy to have the rematch at home. However, coming into this season Toledo was projected by most to be only about the 3rd best team in the MAC West. As for the MAC East, Buffalo was expected to be the top team there and they have met those expectations. The point is that the Bulls are doing what was expected of them while the Rockets have overachieved a bit. Overall on the season Buffalo has played a slightly tougher schedule too. These key factors, in my opinion, are combining to give us some solid line value here with the Bulls as a very short road favorite in this one. Sure the Rockets want revenge badly here but, keep in mind, this game is ultra-important to Buffalo too! It is not just about the Bulls being a Top 25 team and wanting to remain in the rankings, it is also the fact that Buffalo is currently battling with Bowling Green for the top spot in the East Division of the MAC. The Rockets have been helped by the fact that they play in the West which is the weaker division of the MAC this season. Also, note that the Bulls are a long-term 23-8 ATS in road games in which their line ranges from pick'em to a -3. As for Toledo, they could be a little rusty here with some extra time off leading into this game and the Rockets have covered just 3 of their last 9 games when they enter a match-up with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Bulls are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams and they make it 4 in a row here. 10* BUFFALO |
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02-13-19 | Pistons +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game in his CAREER went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in Boston's upset win over the 76ers. The Celtics won at Philly by 3 points yesterday and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and Boston loses the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of highly unlikely shooting result leading to an emotional upset win for the Celtics, this is pure and simple a flat spot for Boston. Of course that is why odds maker opened this line up with the Celtics favored by less than a half dozen points even though they are on their home floor. Keep in mind Kyrie Irving has been out for Boston and I would be very surprised to see him return tonight considering this is the Celtics final game before the All Star break. The smart thing to do is to let him continue to rest his knee and have continued rest then through the break. Boston had failed to cover 3 straight games before the unlikely upset win last night. Conversely, the Pistons enter this game having won (and covered) 4 straight games. Detroit also has covered its last two games against the Celtics and has the size in the paint to give Boston some trouble. This is especially true when the Pistons have a significant rest edge like they do here. The Celtics are 3-5 SU (and 2-6 ATS!) this season in the 2nd game of a back to back. Detroit is playing with a lot of confidence right now and has done well all season when in a situation like this. That is, the Pistons are 8-5 ATS (and 10-3 SU!) when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more! This one has upset written all over it and I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT |
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02-13-19 | Providence v. Villanova -11 | Top | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #782 Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - I got burned going against the Friars on Saturday with the Red Storm. No one expected that St John's would be without Mustapha Heron in that game but it made me feel like a fool when he was listed as the key player in my write-up and then 30 minutes before the game it was announced he wouldn't play. How important was he? Heron came back last night and scored 28 points in the OT win for the Red Storm over Butler. The point is that Providence, though they still deserve credit of course for the Saturday win, were very fortunate that Heron didn't play as it resulted in St John's being completely out of rhythm in that game. Now the Friars, after being in the right place at the right time, are in a complete 180 situation and are in the wrong place at the wrong time! Villanova is at home and coming off a one point loss at Marquette on Saturday. SU losses have been rare for the Wildcats this season and they are known for responding after a defeat. Nova is 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they were off a SU loss. This spread is double digits but it is justified. The Cats led the Friars by 18 points at halftime at Providence early last month. The Friars, at home, were able to claw back into the game in the 2nd half. However, on the road, that will not happen and this is particularly true when you consider the angry mindset of the Wildcats team they are facing here. Providence is 8-10 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. Villanova is 14-6 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Wildcats turn this into a home blowout. 10* VILLANOVA |
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02-12-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -6 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are a much different team than the ones that the Celtics have dominated in recent meetings. Not only did Boston knock Philly out of the playoffs in 5 games in May, the Celtics also have won each of the first two meetings this season. However, not only were those games at Boston and this one is in Philadelphia, the Sixers also are now stacked. Not only do they now have a "Big Four" with Embiid, Simmons, Butler and Harris, the 76ers also still have JJ Redick and the sharp-shooter is currently red hot from beyond the arc. They are loaded with weapons while the Celtics are actually down a key one today as Kyrie Irving (knee) has been downgraded to out for this game! Boston is 9-17 ATS this season in road games and also just 3-6 ATS as an underdog this season. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. In other words, the Celtics have not covered a single game this season that they've lost SU as an underdog. That said, note that Philly is quite likely to get the SU win here. The 76ers are 23-6 SU at home this season. In other words, the odds are heavily stacked in our favor here for a Sixers win and cover. In terms of technical support for the 76ers, Philly is 35-13 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - when the Sixers are facing them in the 2nd half of the season. Overall the 76ers are a fantastic 72-43 ATS long-term in home games. The Celtics have been slumping and are on a 5-11 ATS run and Boston is in the wrong place at the wrong time. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-12-19 | St Bonaventure v. St. Joe's -1 | Top | 76-51 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs St Bonaventure Bonnies @ 6:30 ET - This line was as high as a -3 on St Joseph's early on when lines first came out yesterday afternoon. It has since dropped to very nearly a pick'em and this is offering superb line value on the home team. This is a big-time revenge game and I look for the Hawks to get home revenge in this one just like they did when they blasted the Billikens on Friday. Earlier this season St Joseph's had lost at St Louis and shot just 29.5% from the field in the embarrassing loss. The Hawks got payback in Philly Friday. Similar situation here. St Joseph's lost badly at St Bonaventure and shot 29.1% in the defeat and now it is payback time in Philly as they host the Bonnies. Though the Hawks are short-handed, including being without Lamarr Kimble, that problem is mitigated by the fact that St Joseph's enters this game with 3 days off and they have 2 days off after this. In other words, it is no problem to fully utilize all hands on deck fully in this one and that worked just fine when they blasted St Louis by 30 on Friday. The Hawks are catching the Bonnies at the right time as St Bonaventure has been held to below 30% from the field (including horrific 3-point shooting performances) in each of their last two games. Off back to back losses, St Bonaventure has scored an average of just 53 points per game in their last two games. The Bonnies are just 4-9 SU on the road this season while the Hawks are a solid 9-3 SU at home this season. St Bonaventure is just 2-4 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they were held to just 60 points or less. The Hawks are a perfect 3-0 SU this season in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5 points. 10* ST JOSEPH'S |
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02-08-19 | Nuggets v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are looking to respond off back to back losses. Also, both the Nuggets and 76ers have fared well against the opposing conference this season. However, there are two key factors that strongly favor the Sixers here. First off, the huge trade with the Clippers that included Tobias Harris is going to lead to a ton of positive energy for Philly in this one. Secondly, that energy level is going to be boosted even higher here because this game is at Philadelphia with the home court edge being a huge factor in this one. The Nuggets are on an ugly 3-12 ATS run in home games! Conversely, the 76ers are a long-term 70-43 ATS in home games. Also, Philly has not lost 3 straight games this season. In other words, you can fully expect the bounce back here with a home victory. However, what about the all important cover? Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season when off a divisional game and they are fired up after the ugly loss to the Raptors. Also, the Sixers are 9-1 SU (and 8-2 ATS!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin! Long-term the 76ers are 35-17 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points! The Nuggets, of course, are also looking to bounce back here but they are an ugly 2-6 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Denver is an ugly 3-8 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. While all 3 Sixers acquisitions from the Clippers are listed as probable for tonight, the Nuggets Gary Harris has been ruled out for this game and Paul Millsap is questionable with his ankle injury still a factor. The Sixers have held 9 of their last 11 opponents to 47% or less from the field. Denver has allowed their last 4 opponents to average 51.4% from the field! Look for the Nuggets to drop to 3-9 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Home blowout here for Sixers rejuvenated with the Harris acquisition. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-07-19 | Clippers +6 v. Pacers | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - This is one of my typical contrarian plays. The first line that popped up on this game was a -4 early this morning. Keep in mind this is after the public just watched the Pacers destroy the Lakers at home on Tuesday and hand LeBron James the worst loss of his career. Now Indiana is at home again and they're facing the "other" LA team that just traded away Tobias Harris (plus two other role players) to the 76'ers. So, of course, the betting masses are jumping all over the Pacers here and the line got driven up to a -6. I have said this many times before and will say it again here...actually, I will say two things. First off, anything can happen in any game but the key in this business is to always try and have the odds in your favor. That said, my second comment/question as I have stated before is - do you really think the odds makers are stupid? The point being that they are well aware of the impact of the trade. They certainly know Indiana is the home team in this game. Yet they set the line at a 4 with good reason. The betting markets jump all over it and now I am happy to fade the masses and grab the Clippers here. Watch LA "rally the troops" tonight while the Pacers get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves after the blowout of LeBron and Company on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Indiana is playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights. Also, prior to the win over the Lakers, the Pacers were on a 1-5 ATS run. Indiana is also 4-9 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more. Long-term, the Pacers are an ugly 1-5 ATS (and SU!) when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. In other words, don't be surprised if the Clips pull off the upset tonight. I am grabbing the "insurance" with having the points however and am happy to have a half dozen points on my side. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games, on a 16-8 ATS run in February games, and are 20-11 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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02-06-19 | VCU -6.5 v. George Washington | Top | 60-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Virginia Commonwealth Rams @ George Washington Colonials @ 7 ET - This line opened up at nearly double digits but, as of early game day morning, it has dropped to as low as a 6.5 in some big books. This is a great value add for us as we can get a Rams team that I do expect to win by double digits and yet we're laying only about a half-dozen points. Yes, Virginia Commonwealth is on the road here but that is actually part of the key to this play. What that does is keep the line manageable. Had the Rams been at home they would have opened up at around 15 points for sure. The other key about being on the road is that is often how revenge can best be served! VCU is absolutely out for revenge on this very court where they got thoroughly embarrassed last season by a final score of 80 to 56. For this season's rematch, Virginia Commonwealth enters with a solid 15-6 season while George Washington in currently struggling through an ugly 7-14 campaign. The Colonials are off a home win but that came against a bad Fordham team that is just 1-6 on the road this season. Prior to that win, George Washington had lost 5 of their 6 prior games and the average margin of defeat was 9.6 points in those 5 losses. The Rams are surging on an 8-2 SU run and the only two losses were at Rhode Island and Davidson. Those teams are a combined 17-2 SU at home this season! By comparison, the Colonials are 5-7 SU at home this season. By the way, the VCU wins in their 8-2 stretch their last 10 games have come by an average margin of 13 points per victory! The Rams are 20-9 ATSÂ in a road game where the total is 130 to 134.5 points. George Washington is 7-14 ATS when off a win in conference action! 10* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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02-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #554 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This is a great spot for the Sixers from a situational standpoint. Philly is off a loss and they have had two days off since that defeat and they have two days off after this game hosting the Raptors. In other words the 76ers are all in on this game and they're hosting a Toronto team that is expected to be short-handed with Kyle Lowry listed as doubtful (back). The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. 4 of those 5 wins have come by a double digit margin and, in fact, the average margin of victory has been 15 points in those 5 wins. Philadelphia got upset as a favorite at Sacramento Saturday but they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've been off a SU loss. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are 27-16 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The 76ers are also 33-12 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are a facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is looking to close the gap with Toronto in the Atlantic Division standings and I expect them to get the job done in a big way with strong situational edges here. Of course Lowry being likely to miss this game makes the spot an even stronger one as you know the former Villanova star would love to be playing in Philly tonight but is unlikely the Raptors are going to risk a lot with Lowry so close to the All Star break. Play PHILADELPHIA |
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02-05-19 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -15.5 | Top | 48-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #618 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I rarely lay big points and for me to do so requires exactly the ideal situation. This particular case is the text book example of a perfect time to lay big points with a favorite that is set up perfectly to absolutely crush their opponent by 20+ points. The very first number that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon was 18 and it is down to a 15.5 as of early this morning. Both teams are off wins but while Kentucky had a "growth game" for its, as usual, young roster by rallying for a win; the Gamecocks were off a wire to wire win but that was thanks to hitting an insanely high percentage of their three pointers. That won't happen again here. The Wildcats have been patiently waiting for this opportunity. Last season the Cats led the Gamecocks by 14 in the 2nd half and then they watched Chris Silva take over for South Carolina and lead them to the huge comeback win. It is payback time here and that is a key when laying big points. The point is that the Wildcats, even with a big lead, will not take their foot off the gas in this one and it is set up to be a home blowout. Kentucky's frontcourt will be a key in stopping Silva. Note that PJ Washington is now a sophomore and another big forward, senior Reid Travis was NOT with the Wildcats last season (he played his first four with Stanford). Travis has been a key player for Kentucky this season and will help Washington in slowing down Silva. As for the outside game of the Gamecocks, their three-point shooting will cool off quickly at Kentucky as the Wildcats have turned up the heat on defense (including perimeter defense) and that has played a key role in their 8 games winning streak. The Cats have covered 6 in a row too! Also, in the last 7 games of this 8-game winning streak they only had 1 poor game defensively. In the other 6 they allowed an average of only 53 points per game! Keep in mind, Kentucky is averaging 80 points per game at home this season. So if the Wildcats hold South Carolina to 53 and they hit their usual scoring average they win this 80-53. I honestly would not be surprised to see that and I do see this win coming by 20 points or more! 10* KENTUCKY |
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02-04-19 | Hawks +6 v. Wizards | Top | 137-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #533 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - When you look at Monday's full NBA card you see the following teams favored: Spurs, Rockets, Pacers, Bucks, Nuggets, and Wizards. What sticks out when you look at the list? There is only one team with a losing record that is in that list and it is the team I am fading right here. Now I know the Hawks, of course, are not a great team. However, they are catching about a half-dozen points here against a Wizards team that is only 4-5 SU in their last 9 games and two of those wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 6 points with Washington would result in a 2-7 ATS record their last 9 games. The Hawks are seeking revenge for a double digit loss when these teams most recently met, also in DC, in early January. Atlanta is wrapping up a 7-game road trip and, although they are still not home, the Hawks are happy to be back east again. Atlanta is 3-3 so far on this trip and is hell-bent on finishing with a winning road trip. They are going hard for the 4th win here and I expect them to be the more motivated team here. Interestingly, the Wizards have a game on deck at Milwaukee and that is the same Bucks team that they just got throttled by at home by a double digit margin Saturday. Could the Wizards overlook the Hawks? With Atlanta having a 17-35 record you better believe it! Look for the Hawks to improve to 8-4 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. Washington is off an ugly loss to Milwaukee but is 2-8 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 10* ATLANTA |
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02-04-19 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 72-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 7 ET - The line was as high as a -6 and has dropped to 3.5 as of early Monday morning. This line move is opening up great value on the home favorite here. I understand the move as the Hokies are off a dominating win over NC State Saturday while the Cardinals are off an ugly loss versus North Carolina the same day and so many bettors are playing the zig-zag theory here. Additionally, Virginia Tech will be without guard Justin Robinson again as he his out indefinitely with a foot injury. However, Robinson didn't play Saturday either and that was a 47-24 win at NC State! As for Louisville, they were at home on Saturday versus North Carolina but still had an ugly game and got dominated on the glass. Adding to the value with the Hokies here is the fact that they were swept by the Cardinals in last season's meetings and Louisville has won 5 straight over Virginia Tech! Coach Buzz Williams and his players are out for revenge (big-time!) on Monday night and being on their home floor certainly will help. The Hokies are 11-0 SU at Cassel Coliseum this season and they are beginning a three-game homestand with this revenge opportunity tonight. The Cardinals are just 4-4 SU this season in their games played away from Louisville. Only one of the Hokies 18 wins this season has come by less than 6 points and in fact, 15 of the 18 victories have come by a double digit margin. Look for another home blowout here. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
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02-02-19 | Alabama v. Auburn -9 | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #746 Saturday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 8 ET - The Tigers have had to wait a long time for this rematch and I fully expect a home blowout here. Last March, in the SEC Tournament, Auburn led Alabama by double digits at the half. By virtue of a great shooting performance for the Crimson Tide and a horrible shooting performance for the Tigers, Alabama had a huge 2nd half and won the game by 18 points! It was a beatdown (outscored by 28 in the 2nd half) that Auburn most certainly has not forgotten and it is payback time here. The Tigers are the better team this season, they are at home, and they are playing with big-time revenge. That is why I am willing to lay a big number here as I feel strongly that Auburn will get a double digit lead here and then, because of what happened in March, the Tigers absolutely will keep their foot on the gas! The Crimson Tide are off a big win but that was at home against Mississippi State. Prior to knocking off the Bulldogs, Alabama had lost 4 of 6. The Tigers are a huge 10-1 this season and the lone loss was to Kentucky! The 10 home wins for Auburn have been games decided by a victory margin of 30.2 points! You read that right...THIRTY point margin of victory on average! Another home blowout expected here as the Tigers get revenge in a big way! 10* AUBURN |
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02-01-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Friday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets had a 6-8 January but 10 of their 14 games were on the road! Charlotte is a different team when they are at home. They've won 3 straight home games and the average victory margin in those games was 16 points. Also, the Hornets run at home goes further back than that. They're 7-1 in all home games since mid-December and the 7 wins all came by 9 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.6 per win! While Charlotte, despite a sub-.500 record, is battling for the top spot in the Southeast Division, the Grizzlies are 12 games below .500 and in the basement of the Southwest Division. Memphis also had let it be know that they were willing to take offers on a Conley/Gasol package but they were trying to unload Parsons contract as part of the deal. In any event, the point is that the Grizzlies are in disarray right now while the Hornets are batting hard for the division lead as we head closer to the All-Star break. Memphis has lost 16 of their last 18 games! The Grizzlies are 0-8 in their last 8 road games and they lost those games by an average margin of 13.8 points per defeat! The Hornets are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the very first line that popped up on this game yesterday was 6.5 but it has dropped to 4.5 and I am grabbing the great value with the small home favorite. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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01-31-19 | Mavs +2 v. Pistons | Top | 89-93 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for the Mavericks, there are a couple of key factors as to why there is plenty of value here. First off, Dallas blew out the Knicks so easily last night that no one played more than 29 minutes. Secondly, that game was preceded by 2 off days. Also, up next for the Mavericks is a stretch that sees them with just 1 game in the first 5 days of February. In other words, Dallas will go all out here and they are a hot 5-0 ATS their last 5 games. Additionally, the Mavericks are actually on a 3-1 ATS run the last 4 times they've played the 2nd game of a back to back and that stretch included games at Portland, at Oklahoma City, at Philadelphia, and versus the Clippers. All 4 of those teams are much tougher opponents than this stumbling and bumbling dysfunctional Pistons squad. Detroit enter this game on a 5-12 SU run. Lets also not forget about the East/West factor. In non-conference games the Pistons are 7-10 SU this season. As for the Mavericks, with last night's blowout win, they are now 13-5 ATS in non-conference games. Also, Dennis Smith Jr had a triple double last night and the Mavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the 4 games since he returned to the lineup as he is a key running mate with Luke Doncic and this is a dangerous Dallas team when they are on the floor together. Of course the Pistons would like to get revenge for last week's loss at Dallas but the Mavericks are fighting even harder than Detroit has been when it comes to staying alive in their respective conference playoff races. The Pistons are 4-9 SU when off a double digit loss. The Mavs are 26-13 ATS against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. 10* DALLAS |
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01-30-19 | Marquette v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #784 Wednesday 10* Top Play Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 6:30 ET - To the casual observer this line will look "off" but it is truly anything but. The betting markets may be a little confused as to how a Top Ten Marquette team that has won 7 straight games can be in the range of a 3-point dog against a Butler team that has lost 6 of its last 9 games. After all, take a look at the records too: Golden Eagles (18-3, 7-1 Big East) and the Bulldogs (12-9, 3-5 Big East). Wow, the odds makers made a big mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about that. Many will be lining up on Marquette here but sharps will be on Butler as this game has home rout written all over it. The Golden Eagles are off an improbable win at Xavier as they were down by double digits to the Musketeers in the 2nd half. How did they do it? Ridiculous 3-point shooting which won't be repeated here. Marquette made 56% of their three pointers Saturday and that was in a road game folks. The Golden Eagles previously had one other insane road performance when they knocked down 57.1% of their threes at Creighton in a game they still only won by 2 points. Other than that, Marquette has been held to 28% from beyond the arc in their other 3 true road games (at Georgetown, St. Johns, and Indiana). The Bulldogs are a tough team to face at Butler and they're knocking down 40% of their threes in home games this season. They have played at Creighton and have faced Villanova and St John's in their last 3 games. Battle tested and ready for a statement win tonight, the Bulldogs did beat the Red Storm by 9 and that is the same team that crushed these Golden Eagles by 20 before they began their 7 game winning streak which has not included facing Villanova. The point is that the Golden Eagles are a little over-rated right now and the odds makers and sharp bettors know this but the betting masses are still overly high on Marquette right now. Creates an interesting match-up tonight and I also like the fact that Butler is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when they're at home off back to back ATS losses. Marquette is 17-27 ATS (including 2-4 ATS this season) when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games against the Golden Eagles and they get the cash again on Wednesday evening. 10* BUTLER |
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01-28-19 | Duke v. Notre Dame +14.5 | Top | 83-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - With the Blue Devils off that suffocating effort on defense in their win over the Yellow Jackets Saturday, and the Fighting Irish off a blowout home loss versus Virginia the same day, everyone is lining up on Duke here (line has gone from -13 to -14.5 as of early Monday AM). The Blue Devils did get guard Tre Jones back from injury and that helped them run their full court press against Georgia Tech. However, even though Notre Dame lost senior guard Rex Pflueger to injury earlier this season and have turned to freshman Prentiss Hubb at the point, they still have done a great job of not turning the ball over. To that point, Duke is turning the ball over 13 times per game this season while Notre Dame is averaging only 10 turnovers per game. I like having the big points here with an Irish team that is off a blowout home loss and now facing a Duke team that has been struggling badly with its outside shooting for a few weeks now. From beyond the arc, the Blue Devils have been shooting a very poor percentage. That makes it tough to create a big winning margin in games and it comes as no surprise that Duke is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. By the way, in games in which Tre Jones has played it is an 0-3 ATS run for the Blue Devils! Also, Duke is 0-2 ATS the past two seasons in road games where they are favored in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. When playing with one day or less of rest between games this season the Blue Devils are 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) this season while the Fighting Irish are 2-0 SU. I expect Duke to win this game but by single digits as the Irish give a huge effort after the embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers Saturday. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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01-26-19 | 76ers v. Nuggets -9 | Top | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 9:05 ET - It is evident the Sixers are treating this as a "throw away" game. Joel Embiid is being given the night off even though Philadelphia has had two days off leading into this game and also has two days off coming up after this game. Jimmy Butler is dealing with a wrist injury that is likely to keep him out of this game. Also, Wilson Chandler is out with a hamstring injury. Of course he would have loved to go against his former team but that is not going to happen. As for his former team, the Nuggets, they are in a back to back spot here BUT it was a home game for Denver last night versus Phoenix and they rolled to an easy win. That 132 to 95 victory was so easy in fact that the Nuggets were able to rest a ton throughout the game. Speaking of fresh legs for tonight, Nikola Jokic did not play last night due to suspension. He is back tonight and will be particularly tough for the Sixers to handle without Embiid on the floor. This really sets up as an all-out rout in which the Nuggets can name the final margin and certainly I expect that margin to be at least a dozen! As I noted above, Philly is essentially conceding this game. Also, the Nuggets got swept by the 76ers last season so they'll keep their foot on the gas in this one. Denver is 17-8 ATS in home games this season. Philadelphia is 9-17 ATS this season after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. They were very fortunate to beat the Spurs Wednesday and now they get blasted here. 10* DENVER |
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01-26-19 | Kansas +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-71 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #705 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 6 ET - I am always happy to back high-quality teams when they are undervalued because the betting markets have turned against them. Keep in mind the betting markets tend to have a short-term memory. That said, there is an anti-Kansas mindset right now because the Jayhawks have covered just 1 of 7 games since the calendar turned the page to 2019. However, Kansas is still a team that is 16-3 SU this season and two of those losses game by 4 points or less! Also, the Jayhawks have played a slightly tougher schedule than Kentucky. But right now it is the Wildcats that are getting the love from bettors not only because of an 8-4 ATS run but 3 straight covers. Again, the short-term memory! Now there is no disputing that Kentucky is a great team but lets not just hand this game to the Wildcats! Kansas has won the turnover battle by a combined 35-23 in their last two meetings. That has helped lead to the Jayhawks having 22 more shot attempts from the field in the last two games (both Kansas wins) in the last two meetings between these highly regarded basketball powerhouses. Kentucky is on a 9-15 ATS run in January games and they are over-priced here, in my opinion, because the Cats are on an ATS run while Kansas is on an overall ATS slide. The fact is, of course, the Jayhawks are highly talented and very well-coached. Of course they can rise up for a game like this and if they do fall short I expect it to only be by a bucket or two. Upset is very possible here! Kansas has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. That is the first time that has happened this season. It happened 3 times in the past two seasons and, every single time, the Jayhawks won and covered their very next game. Look for that to be the result this time as well. 10* KANSAS |
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01-23-19 | Spurs v. 76ers -4 | Top | 120-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #548 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers got blasted at San Antonio on December 17th when the Spurs caught Philly in the 2nd night of a back to back and, of course, away from home. This situation is much different now with the 76ers at home and having not had any back to backs recently plus not having any games on deck again until Saturday when a Western road swing begins. Philadelphia, in fact, will not be at home again for nearly two weeks to tonight they certainly want to "make this one count" and I foresee them getting payback at home. Finally Joel Embiid is not even listed on the injury report plus Jimmy Butler (wrist) was at practice yesterday. Ben Simmons (illness) was not but I don't see him missing this game with two full off days on deck after this. Look for the training staff to have Simmons ready to go here and it should be "all hands on deck" for Philly. Note that 76ers head coach Brett Brown and assistant coach Monty Williams both worked for the Spurs prior to coming to Philadelphia. Brown logged 11 seasons as an assistant coach under Popovich from 2002 to 2013. Williams not only played for the Spurs from 1996 to 1998, he also later served as vice president of basketball operations from 2016 to 2018 in San Antonio. The point is that there is plenty of incentive here for both the players and coaches to respond after that embarrassing loss in mid-December in SA. The Spurs enter this game on a 2-5 SU (and ATS) run. The Sixers are 28-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The 76ers also are 31-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-23-19 | Tennessee -8.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 88-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #803 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers @ Vanderbilt Commodores @ 7 ET - Tennessee opened up favored by about a dozen points here. The line has dropped all the way down to as low as an 8.5 this morning as Vanderbilt is getting plenty of attention here as a home dog against their biggest rival and a foe that is currently the #1 team in the country! I also understand that the Commodores have defeated the Volunteers the last two times they have faced them in Nashville. Additionally, I am aware of the fact that the last time Tennessee rose to a #1 ranking their next game was at Vanderbilt and they lost! This was in 2018 but the Commodores were a #18 ranked team that season. This team is much weaker this season especially because their offense is having all sorts of issues without point guard Darius Garland (out for the season). Vandy is not shooting well at all and they are a young team that makes many mistakes. Conversely, Tennessee was on fire from the field before not shooting well in their tight win over the Crimson Tide Saturday. However, the Vols blew a 15 points lead against Alabama in that game so it is not as if it was a tight game all the way. Plus you saw that the Tide are a solid team after they thrashed a ranked Ole Miss team last night. After already having had their "scare" against the Crimson Tide and also being plenty wary of the Commodores, I look for the Volunteers to roll on the road in this one. The Vols are the much more experienced team and they are the much better team offensively. Vandy simply won't be able to keep up here. In terms of technical support, the Volunteers are 18-9 ATS in road games including a perfect 3-0 this season. Vanderbilt is 3-7 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record and also a long-term 2-7 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. 10* TENNESSEE |
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01-21-19 | Rockets v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #524 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off a tough last-second loss to the Thunder on Saturday. Conversely, the Rockets are off an OT win and that was preceded by an OT loss. Look for Philly to take advantage of a Houston team that may not have a lot left in the tank after their big OT win over the Lakers Saturday. Additionally, the Sixers have been playing much better defense of late in comparison with the Rockets. Philadelphia has allowed just 41.5% from the field in their last 4 games. Houston has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to defensive play in their last 3 games. The Rockets have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field! Also, Houston is still without Chris Paul and Clint Capela. As of early this morning Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable for the Sixers but it is with right wrist soreness and I expect he'll be upgraded to probable after this morning's shootaround. Also, 76ers big man Joel Embiid is probable with his continuing back issues. On that note, it has helped Philly that they haven't had any back to back situations recently and won't have one again until mid-February. The healthier team, the more rested team, the home team, and looking for revenge for losing last year's contest here versus the Rockets by a single point...all signs point to Philly getting a solid home win in this one. Houston is 1-6 ATS after a game in which they scored 130 points or more this season. The 76ers are 27-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season and also 30-9 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. All Sixers in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-19-19 | Thunder v. 76ers -2 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:35 ET - The Sixers Joel Embiid is again on the injury report here as he continues to deal with a sore back. However, he got better in the 2nd half of Philadelphia's dominating win at Indiana on Thursday. The fact is I really don't see Embiid missing much time again until back to back type situations crop up again for Philly and that is not until mid-February. He should be ready to go here and, either way, I like the small number we're getting on the 76ers in this one as they are on their floor and hosting a Thunder team that is stuck in a slump. Oklahoma City has lost 5 of its last 6 games. Conversely, Philadelphia has won 7 of its last 9 games. Also, the Sixers defense has kicked into high gear in its last 3 games. As for OKC, their defense has been atrocious over their last 4 games. Additionally, the Thunder are a long-term 3-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. This season Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS after a loss by a double digit margin. The Sixers are a long-term 69-40 ATS in home games. Additionally, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game, Philly is 27-10 ATS. When past the midway point of a season and facing a team that scores 106 points or more per game, the 76ers are 30-8 ATS. Look for a home rout in this day game Saturday. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-18-19 | Heat +2 v. Pistons | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Friday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Heat just got blasted by 38 points on Tuesday at Milwaukee. The Pistons are off a dramatic overtime win versus the Magic on Wednesday. Set ups simply don't get much better than this. Miami is angry and ready to bounce back and all the stuff you're reading about guys saying stuff complaining about playing time will be turned into positive aggressive energy in this game. When you get embarrassed like the Heat players did on Tuesday against the Bucks, you respond! Also, the Pistons are only 2 games over .500 at home this season. It is not a huge edge for Detroit to be at home. Additionally, the Heat have been a better team on the road than at home this season and do have a winning record away from Miami. The Pistons were 3-10 SU in their 13 games prior to the OT win over the Magic. The Heat were 10-4 SU in their 14 games prior to getting blasted by the Bucks. Also, Miami is 6-1 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season and also a superb 14-6 ATS as an underdog this season. The Pistons are 14-24 ATS (including 5-8 ATS this season) when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these teams and that streak adds another W on Friday! 10* MIAMIÂ |
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01-18-19 | Maryland +3 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #851 Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6:30 ET - This is a match-up of two teams going opposite directions and that means it is not going to be easy for the Buckeyes to turn things around. The Terrapins have been down big early in games and still found a way to win. Maryland has also had huge leads in games and then blown it in the 2nd half and still found a way to win. That is how a young team builds character and this Terps team is proving they are the real deal. They are 15-3 on the season and the 3 losses ALL came by 5 points or less. In other words there is no way to look at this match-up other than the fact that Maryland will, worst case scenario, be a threat to cover in the final minutes. However, I foresee them actually winning this game outright rather handily. The Buckeyes are struggling to find the right floor combinations with their players and the result has been ugly and confidence is now shaken after 3 straight losses. Granted Ohio State faced some tough competition but Maryland has also played just as tough of a schedule this season. Additionally, the "kicker" for me with this play is that the Terrapins got blasted by 22 points in last season's meeting. How did that happen? The Buckeyes outscored the Terps by 27 points from three point land because they made a ridiculous 58.6% of their three pointers. Of course had that not happened Ohio State loses the game by 5 points. You can see where I am going with this and the point is the Buckeyes are so discombobulated right now they truly are not functioning well enough to have some huge shooting game here. They are a mess. Ohio State is on an 0-3 SU run and 0-4 ATS run. Maryland has won 6 straight games SU. The Terrapins are set to improve to 5-0 ATS in road games this season while the Buckeyes shooting woes are unlikely to improve after a long layoff. From a technical standpoint that factor is also supported by this: Ohio State is 0-6 ATS when they enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The road dog is barking loudly in this one and Coach Mark Turgeon gets revenge after his Terps were embarrassed here in Columbus by the Buckeyes and Coach Chris Holtmann in his first year with Ohio State last season. Payback time and the set up and current momentum of these teams make it an ideal situation. 10* MARYLAND |
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01-17-19 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +2.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #634 Thursday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 8 ET - When the betting masses have the opportunity to take one of the top ranked teams in the nation at nearly a pick'em price against an unranked foe, they tend to jump all over it. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side in a situation like this and taking advantage of the extra value offered by the line move in a spot like this. One of the big keys here is that Michigan State is still without guard Joshua Langord and another key player, guard Kyle Ahrens may be out again for this game or, at the very least, limited. That said the Cornhuskers are likely to hold a key edge in the backcourt in this match-up as they have big guards and have a size edge over the Spartans. This is especially true given the current injury situation in the Michigan State backcourt. In terms of some technical value here: the Spartans, versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games, have gone 5-8 ATS the past two seasons. The Huskers, versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games, have gone 8-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons. The Cornhuskers have won 20 straight games at home and Michigan State is facing the tough task of trying to win back to back road games and are now facing the stingiest D (60.8 ppg) in the Big Ten other than Michigan. Look for the home dog to get the upset in this one. 10* NEBRASKA |
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01-17-19 | 76ers +3 v. Pacers | Top | 120-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
TNT Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Early movement was on Indiana here as the Pacers (15-5 SU in home games) opened up as only a 2.5 points favorite over a 76ers team that is 10-12 SU in road games this season. It's easy, right folks? Ladies and gentlemen, it is never easy in this business and this is precisely the type of situation I look for. Looks like easy money on the small home favorite an you know what usually happens when something looks easy in this business! The fact is that the 76ers are playing with a ton of confidence right now and are also seeking revenge for a home loss versus the Pacers last month. That game in fact marked the 3rd straight time in this series that the road team has won and covered. Look for that streak to make it 4-0 here! The Sixers are an incredible 29-8 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is also 33-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Pacers are just 2-5 ATS their last 7 games. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-16-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Wednesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Now that we are past the midway point of the season teams are certainly already beginning to look at the playoff picture. That said, both these teams are just outside the top 8 in the Eastern Conference and this game carries plenty of extra meaning as a result. This situation favors the Magic. We're able to get a handful of points with Orlando and they were at home and have had two days off and are playing with plenty of confidence after beating the Rockets and Celtics in their last two games. Conversely, the Pistons are playing their first game back East after a long road trip out west and Detroit has had only one day off between games. From a technical standpoint, note that the Pistons are a poor 4-9 SU and ATS when off a non-conference game. The Magic are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The road dog stays hot in this one and, should they fall short, look for it to be by just a bucket. 10* ORLANDO |
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01-15-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6 | Top | 107-149 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers Jimmy Butler is facing his former team and Philly will take advantage of a Timberwolves team that is hurting. Minnesota will be, at the very least, hobbled in this one but could also be short-handed. The problem is a cluster injury situation as both injuries are at the point guard position. Starting PG Jeff Teague and veteran PG Derrick Rose are both listed as questionable for this game with ankle injuries. Keep in mind that the Wolves are an ugly 6-15 SU on the road this season while Philadelphia is a stellar 18-4 SU in home game this season. That said, a Sixers home victory is quite likely but what about the all-important spread factor? It should get there for us! 16 of Minny's last 20 losses have come by a margin of at least a half dozen points! Also, note that Minnesota is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. The 76ers are off a tight win at New York but are 8-2 SU and ATS when off a divisional game this season. Also, the Sixers are a long-term 22-11 SU (and 21-12 ATS) in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Look for a home blowout here! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-15-19 | Seton Hall +2 v. Providence | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - This line opened up at a pick'em and it is also a revenge game for the Friars. That said, it comes as no surprise that bettors jumped on Providence at home and the line is now up to a -2 on the Friars. I am happy to grab the extra value with another contrarian play. The key here is that Providence has had trouble with their shooting and that is why they sorely miss freshman phenom (and 2nd leading scorer) AJ Reeves. The Friars have now lost 3 straight games and are coming off a heart-breaking double-OT loss at Georgetown. Of course those types of defeats are very tough to bounce back from. Also, Providence is starting to develop a "losers mentality" as that is what happens when you lose 3 straight tight games in conference action and you're missing one of your best players. Seton Hall will pounce on this and be very aggressive and take advantage tonight. Keep in mind, the Pirates have thrived in situations like this. Seton Hall is a perfect 6-0 ATS in games with a line ranging from pick'em to +3 and all 6 wins were outright upsets! As for the Friars, they've gone 4-8 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. That includes Providence going 1-3 ATS this season when in that situation. The teams are roughly equivalent on the defensive end but the Pirates hold the edge on the offensive end as the Friars continue to struggle with consistency on the offensive end as they continue to adjust to life without Reeves. He will be back but not yet! Seton Hall is off a loss and they haven't lost back to back games since mid-November. By the way, the Pirates last 4 losses have come by average margin of just 3 points. The points could come in handy here but I fully expect an outright win as the Pirates bounce back off a defeat. 10* SETON HALL |
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01-14-19 | Celtics -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 102-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics have a big game at home with Toronto on deck for Wednesday. However, there is no way they're looking past this game. That's because this is the finale of a 3-game road trip that has seen Boston go winless so far. The Celtics are hungry for a win and the Nets should provide the perfect punching bag for Boston to take out their frustrations after back to back losses at Miami and Orlando. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Nets enter this game having won 4 of their last 6 games. However, Brooklyn is 6-12 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Also, the Nets are just 4-7 ATS this season when off a road loss and they just got smashed at Toronto Friday. Also, Brooklyn has a long history of struggles versus the Celtics and the Nets are on a long losing streak versus Boston. If Kyrie Irving (questionable) does not play tonight, Terry Dozier will get the start and he has played better as a starter compared to when coming off the bench. Either way the Celtics are a much more stacked team in comparison with the Nets. Brooklyn has lost 13 of 19 games this season when facing a team with a winning record. Celtics respond big off back to back losses here. 10* BOSTON |
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01-14-19 | Nebraska +3 v. Indiana | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Monday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 6:30 ET - The very first lines that popped up on this game offshore Sunday afternoon had Hoosiers -1 and, not surprisingly, the betting masses jumped on Indiana at home and this line is now up to as high as a -3 as of early Monday morning. Of course I am contrarian and grabbing the road dog here. This game was priced this way originally with good reason as the Cornhuskers are the better team. I am well aware of the fact that the Hoosiers have been strong at home and the Huskers have had some struggles on the road. However, this is not going to go on forever and Nebraska is going to make a statement in this game. The Cornhuskers have beaten the Hoosiers in each of the last two meetings. Also, Nebraska is 15-8 ATSÂ as a road underdog or pick in recent seasons. The Huskers did win at Oklahoma State and Clemson and lost by just 2 points at Maryland. Indiana has been strong at home this season but, keep in mind, the Hoosiers won by just 2 points versus Northwestern and only 1 point versus Louisville. Indiana is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games but 4 of those 7 wins have come by 3 or less points. Again, there is value with having the dog here in an game in which Nebraska (preseason projections just behind Michigan State and Michigan in the Big Ten) has a great shot at the upset. The Hoosiers are just 4-8 ATS in recent seasons in games versus good defensive teams (allowing 64 points or less per game). 10* NEBRASKA |
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01-13-19 | Michigan State v. Penn State +8.5 | Top | 71-56 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #836 Sunday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 4:30 ET - The Nittany Lions are a much better team than their record shows. That said, there is great home dog value here with Penn State. After getting blown out by Wisconsin, PSU responded with a strong effort at Nebraska. Keep in mind, the Lions have been very competitive in nearly all their defeats this season except for the Badgers game. That said, though the Spartans have continue to play great even with Joshua Langford out, this is going to be a hard-fought game Sunday. The Nittany Lions are desperate for a Big Ten win and the home crowd will be ready for hosting one of the top teams in the nation. Will be a great atmosphere for Penn State to excel and they are well-coached under Patrick Chambers. Also note that Langord's back-up, junior Kyle Ahrens, is also dealing with an injury right now. The Spartans have been great at the betting window this season but went just 6-12 ATS in road games the prior two seasons and they are over-priced here. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games in a season. Technical and situational value here with the home dog. 10* PENN STATE |
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01-12-19 | Pistons v. Clippers -7 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 3:35 ET - The Clippers are off a blowout loss at Denver but previously were on an 8-2 ATS run. Now facing the slumping Pistons at home should allow the Clippers to get right back on track. Detroit did win at Los Angeles last season so the Clips also have some extra motivation but truly they don't even need that extra incentive considering they are off the bad loss to the Nuggets. The Pistons enter this game on a 2-9 SU and ATS run and they've allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field. In fact the composite of those three games was a field goal allowance rate of 54% for Detroit. Of course that kind of defense is not going to get the job done and that is particularly true when the opponent (in this case the Clippers) has held their last two opponents at home to 40% or less from the floor. Detroit is 2-9 ATS when off a non-conference game. Los Angeles is a superb 17-6 ATS this season as a favorite. Also, the Clippers are 11-3 ATS this season in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Clips take advantage of facing a struggling foe and this is something they've been doing all season long. LA is 12-3 SU (and 11-4 ATS) this season in games against teams with a losing record. Another home rout is in the offing here. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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01-12-19 | Drexel +4 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 83-97 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #649 Saturday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (+) @ NC-Wilmington Seahawks @ 2 ET - This line is going to look a little "off" to those that don't follow college hoops very closely. I say that because the Seahawks have hammered the Dragons by a double digit margin in each of the last two meetings at NC-Wilmington. That said, many may feel it is a mistake that the Seahawks are priced so low here on their home floor but there is much more than meets the eye here. First off Drexel has enough size and bulk in the middle to help counter the Seahawks top weapon Davontae Cacock. Additionally, the Dragons just welcomed back point guard Kurk Lee. He was one of their top players last season and in addition to returning starters Alihan Demir and senior guard Troy Harper, Drexel has seen others step up while Lee has been out. Trevor John, Camren Wynter, and James Butler are combining to contribute 33 points per game. That said, Lee and Demir and Harper are all guys that can contribute 15 points a night. The Dragons are still flying "under the radar" right now but are truly the better team in this match-up as the Seahawks have been "on the fade" this season. In terms of technical support, the Dragons are 6-2 ATS in games with a posted total in the 160s. Also, Drexel has gone 3-1 SU and ATS this season in games against teams with a losing record. NC-Wilmington is 2-5 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 160s. Also, the Seahawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams that allow 77 points or more per game. In a game projected to be a shootout, you can see why the situation favors the road dog. 10* DREXEL |
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01-11-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #545 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks are a red hot 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and they're certainly not going to slow down here. Being on the road is helping Milwaukee to stay focused and up next is a game at Atlanta so certainly there is no lookahead here. The Bucks also have extra motivation because the Wizards won the most recent meeting and that game was on Milwaukee's home floor. In fact, road dominance has been the theme in recent meetings between these foes as the away team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS and I'll gladly take advantage of the extra line value here since the typical "home factor" is factored into this line even though there has been no home court edge in recent meetings between these teams. The Wizards are off a ridiculously strong shooting performance against the Sixers in their most recent game. Off that huge upset win they'll fall flat here and the Bucks have too much talent and will pull away big as this game goes on and win it by double digits. Milwaukee is 6-2 SU and ATS in Friday night games this season. Washington is 0-9 SU (and 1-8 ATS) in Friday night games this season. Also, the Wizards are 1-5 SU and ATS this season against Central Division opponents. Last but not least, Washington is a poor 1-4 ATS this season when off an upset win as an underdog. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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01-11-19 | Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #804 Northern Kentucky Norse (-) vs Wright State Raiders @ 7 ET - This is the only home game for the Norse between December 30th and January 24th. There is no doubt that Northern Kentucky wants to take advantage of this opportunity and who better to welcome to town than Wright State. The Norse have big-time revenge on their minds here as they won the regular season title in the Horizon League last season but they lost both games against the Raiders. They want payback here and I like the added line value here with this line dropping as of early game day morning. We can lay a rather small number to have the better defense and the home team in this match-up. Northern Kentucky has held opponents to 39.6% from the field this season while Wright State has allowed 46.3% from the field so far this season. Keep in mind, this is even with playing very similar early season schedules. Also, from 3-point land the Norse are allowing just 28.7% while the Raiders are allowing 39.5% from beyond the arc! Wright State is 1-5 SU (and 2-4 ATS) in road games this season. The Norse are 30-4 SU (and 23-11 ATS) in games the past 2+ seasons against teams with a losing record. 10* NORTHERN KENTUCKY |
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01-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa +6 | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Thursday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Home court means a lot in this match-up. More on that in a moment but first off the motivation factor. Two years ago the Golden Hurricane got crushed by the Bearcats in the AAC Tourney by a score of 80-61. As a result, the rematch last season at Cincinnati was a revenge game for Tulsa and the Golden Hurricane did play very well in that game and actually led at the half. However, the Bearcats ultimately prevailed by an 8 point margin but that was thanks to an absolutely insane shooting performance from 3-point land. Cincy made 15 of 22 (68.3%) three-pointers! Of course that is not happening again this season and this time the teams are meeting at Tulsa. I like the fact that the Golden Hurricane returned some key cogs from last season's team plus are getting some key contributions from unexpected sources so far this season. They have looked stronger than expected early this season and the Golden Hurricane are 9-0 SU in home games! The Bearcats are 0-3 ATS in true road games this season and 2 of of those were outright losses. I am expecting another one here but am grabbing the points with Tulsa as added insurance. Long-term Cincinnati is on a 1-4 ATS run in road games with a total in a range between 130 and 134.5 points. The Golden Hurricane are 3-1 ATS as home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points and all 3 wins were outright upsets! This will be a hard-fought battle where having the points is truly invaluable. The Golden Hurricane want this game badly and have the talent to get it on their home floor. If they fall short, I expect it to be by the slimmest of the margins and that means we still cash our ticket! 10* TULSA |
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01-09-19 | Houston v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #788 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 7 ET - As long-time followers know I love to go contrarian and if you looked up contrarian in a sports betting dictionary that included an example, this game would be the perfect example. The Cougars are 15-0 this season and ranked. So the odds makers opened this game at very nearly a "pick'em" even though Houston still has not lost a game this season. Now, do you really think the odds makers are stupid? Of course they are not! They know, just as well as sharps like me know, this is a great spot for the Cougars to lose their first game. So while the masses are likely to back Houston as "they can't lose...they're undefeated, etc" the sharp money (including mine) is on the Owls. Why Temple? First off a road trip to Philly is NOT easy for Houston but certainly they made it look easy last year when EVERYTHING went their way and NOTHING went Temple's way in a blowout win by 21 points in February. The Owls haven't forgotten that home beatdown. Additionally, though Temple is "only" 11-3 this season while Houston is a sparkling 15-0, the Owls have played a much tougher early season schedule. That pays off BIG in this game and the home court helps key the win! The Cougars are 2-0 SU in road games this season but went just 12-10 SU away from home the past two seasons. The Owls are a solid 21-11 SU in lined home games the past 2+ seasons and that includes 5-0 SU this season. Give me a highly motivated home dog that is eager to give a conference foe the first blemish on their record this season. 10* TEMPLE |
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01-08-19 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Last night the Nuggets saw the Rockets hit a ridiculously high percentage of their 3-points as Houston went 22 of 47 from downtown while Denver only made 7 of 29 from beyond the arc. That said, the team with the best record in the Western Conference went down in flames despite outrebounding the Rockets by double digits and despite having 17 more field goal attempts in the game. When you get outscored by 45 from three point land it is hard to win. Suffice to say that is not happening again tonight and I fully expect the Nuggets to bounce right back. The Nuggets were 16-4 SU in their 20 games prior to last night's loss by a dozen points. Denver now visits a Miami team that is only 3-3 SU their last 6 games and has covered only 2 of the 6 games. The Heat play in the weaker Eastern Conference and the particularly weak Southeast Division. Miami is 0-4 SU and ATS in Tuesday games this season. The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in Tuesday games this season and tonight they will improve to 5-2 SU and ATS in games against Southeast Division opponents. 10* DENVER |
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01-08-19 | St. John's v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #626 Tuesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs St John's Red Storm @ 7 ET - The Red Storm are off to a great start this season and are ranked. However, they are now in the wrong place at the wrong time. Keep in mind, St John's (14-1) has played a much weaker schedule than Villanova (11-4) so far this season. Also, the Wildcats (accustomed to being the top team in the Big East) are now unranked while the Red Storm are ranked! Give credit to St John's for their strong start to this season for sure. However, Villanova not only is more battle-tested (long-term and this season due to tougher schedule), the Wildcats also have big-time revenge here. Last season in February Villanova lost at home to St John's as a 16 point home favorite. Suffice to say payback is on their minds here. The Red Storm simply had a great shooting night and also caught the Cats in a situation where they were back on the heels. Tuesday you can back on Nova being the team that is putting their opponent back on their heels! The Red Storm have gone just 14-23 ATS (including 2-5 ATS this season) in games with a posted total in the 140s and they simply won't be able to keep up with the revenge-minded Wildcats in this one. Villanova improves to 8-4 SU and ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Wildcats are a long-term 35-8 SU and 29-14 ATS in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. 10* VILLANOVA |
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01-07-19 | Spurs -3 v. Pistons | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Monday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are surging and have won 4 straight games and 12 of their last 15. In terms of their ATS run it is even better as San Antonio is 13-2 ATS their last 15 games. The Pistons are certainly going the opposite direction as they are 4-13 SU since December 2nd. Also, Detroit enters this game on a 2-7 ATS run. That said, the Pistons aren't just losing they're also failing to cover and there is no questioning the Spurs motivation here. They were held to just 79 points in a loss at Detroit last season. As for the Pistons, they've been having trouble with slow starts in games but then fixed that by surging ahead early and leading Utah by 18 points in their most recent game. However, thanks to turnovers and overall poor play (a recurring them for Detroit), they blew the lead and lost to the Jazz. The fact is that the Pistons are a fragile team right now and facing a Spurs team that is firing on all cylinders certainly isn't going to help matters. Take advantage of the small line here and the lay the short number with SA on the road in this one. San Antonio is 4-1 SU and ATS this season after playing each of their 3 prior games at home. Look for the Spurs to improve to 10-5 ATS this season when off a win by a double digit margin. The Pistons drop to 2-7 ATS on the season when off a non-conference game as Detroit's 10-20 SU run in January games adds another loss to the ledger. Spurs get payback for ugly loss here last year. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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01-06-19 | Pacers +3 v. Raptors | Top | 105-121 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Sunday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - This is a tough scheduling spot for the Raptors. They are off a revenge win at Milwaukee last night and now had to travel back home to face a revenge-minded Pacers team. Not only is Indiana the more rested team, they've won 6 straight games since a 3-point loss at Toronto on December 19th. The Pacers have now lost 4 straight to the Raptors so they are amped up about this revenge opportunity Sunday. Overall it is a 13-2 SU run for Indiana and their two losses came by a total of just 4 points! Great value with the road dog in this spot. Toronto is just 3-7 ATS against Central Division teams this season and 1-4 ATS in Sunday games. Indiana is 6-2 SU and ATS against Atlantic Division teams. Also, the Pacers are a fantastic 23-9 SU and 24-8 ATS in Sunday games. Here they catch the Raptors still celebrating that huge win over the Bucks last night. 10* INDIANA |
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01-06-19 | Memphis +9 v. Houston | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #823 Sunday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) @ Houston Cougars @ 6 ET - Long-time followers know I love seeking spots like this. The Cougars are a ranked team and undefeated while the Tigers are only 9-5 on the season and on the road here catching only single digits. Many will back an undefeated team in a spot like this but there are important keys as to why the Tigers are going to be a "tough out" for the Cougars. First off, Memphis has played a tougher schedule than Houston this season. Also, a key to winning on the road when the conference schedule rolls around is having a veteran team and being battle tested. The Tigers fit the bill in both regards. They returned their top four scorers from last season and all are now seniors. Additionally there is tremendous positive energy with this program as they brought in former NBA star Penny Hardaway at head coach and brought in a new influx of playing talent this season that already has led to some key contributions from new sources for Memphis. The Tigers losses this season have included LSU, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. That is not exactly a slate of cupcakes and those experiences will serve the Tigers well in their first key conference battle of the new season. Note that Memphis is already 6-3 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Cougars do play great defense but the Tigers have the veteran skilled players to break down a defense like this. In fact, Memphis is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Houston and the lone loss came by just a single point. The Cougars are NOT shooting the ball well at ll this season and it will tough for them to build a significant margin here against a senior-laded Tigers team viewing this game as one of their BIGGEST of the season. 10* MEMPHIS |
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01-05-19 | Raptors +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The Raptors embarrassed the hell out of me at San Antonio on Thursday but sometimes in this business one can be dead wrong and that was the case with me when Toronto faced the Spurs. However, the Raptors look like a live dog in this spot. Yes I am aware of the continuing Kyle Lowry injury situation. However, the Raptors have now lost 3 straight against the Bucks, including both meetings this season, and it is absolutely payback time here. Milwaukee is in a back to back spot here and has gone 2-4 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Bucks are a poor 1-5 ATS (and SU!) the last 6 times they were off a game in which they scored 130 or more points. The Raptors are 4-1 SU this season in Saturday games. Toronto is 3-1 SU when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Raptors are 6-3 SU when playing with revenge this season but that includes not faring well against the Bucks this season. In other words, payback time here in a big way and I like having the points in a game the Raptors are bound and determined to win and do have a rest edge. 10* TORONTO |
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01-05-19 | Kansas State +12 v. Texas Tech | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #645 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) @ Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Wildcats, already without Dean Wade, have another senior (Kamau Stokes) listed as doubtful for this game. However, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Red Raiders and a huge situational edge for Kansas State. While the Wildcats are off an embarrassing loss at Texas, the Red Raiders enter this game off a hard-fought road win at West Virginia. Also, Texas Tech has a huge game with Oklahoma on deck. In other words this is truly a sandwich game and flat spot for the Red Raiders. Additionally, the Wildcats have revenge on their mind as they were blown out by Texas Tech in both games last season. I like the talent on this Kansas State team and, right now, the Red Raiders continue to be over-valued. As a result, we can get a dozen points with the Wildcats in a game that is projected to be very low-scoring (posted total opened up in the 115 range!). With points at a premium in this one and the hungry and motivated defense ready to turn up the heat on defense, this game will be much closer than many are expecting. By the way, Texas Tech is on a 6-12 ATS run in January games. The Wildcats are a long-term 4-1 ATS in games with a posted total of 119.5 points or less. Give me the big dog in this one. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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01-04-19 | Wizards +7 v. Heat | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Friday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - We're getting to the point in the season where you're going to see trends start to reverse. The NBA season is almost at it's mid-point and this is the time of the season where it is a good idea to take a look at teams that have under-achieved at the betting window but that are playing better of late. I especially like to look for those teams when they're facing a team that has over-achieved at the betting window and also when I can have my team as a sizable underdog. That is the case here because, as of 7:30 AM ET, the Wizards are available as high as a +7 in some big shops. Washington is a poor 13-25 ATS on the season but enters this game off back to back wins and covers and there is a different feeling in the Wizards locker room as they head into this match-up against a divisional foe. The Heat are on a ridiculous 15-4 ATS run which you know can't continue. Miami is just not that strong of a team and the absence of Goran Dragic is going to catch up with them. The Heat are 2-2 SU their last 4 games and I expect another SU loss here but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered. The Wizards are 5-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season while Miami is a poor 2-7 SU and ATS in divisional games on the season. Washington is already adjusting to life without John Wall plus remember they've only had Trevor Ariza for the past 8 games and he has already had games with highs of 24 in points, 9 in assists, and 8 in rebounds. He is a key contributor that will be a difference maker tonight. The Wizards are playing scrappy and hungry basketball right now and that is the kind of dog (with plenty of fight) you want on your side. 10* WASHINGTON |
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01-03-19 | Raptors +2 v. Spurs | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - I don't foresee Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors being denied here. Yes the Spurs are off a big win over another Atlantic Division opponent, the Celtics, but they hit 14 of 26 three-pointers in that game. That was the difference in the contest and, of course, the odds are very strong that such an insane shooting performance will not be repeated here! Leonard wants this game badly and his teammates know it as this will be his only game in San Antonio this season. He wants to show Coach Gregg Popovich and the Spurs that they made a big mistake in the way they handled him last season. Now it is payback time for Leonard. Note that the Raptors are a respectable 11-7 SU in games against teams with a winning record while San Antonio is only 9-9 SU in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, when off an upset win as an underdog, the Spurs are just 10-11 SU and ATS. Toronto, though off a win, is not happy with their defensive performance in that game and they've gone 6-2 SU this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Also, the Raptors are 14-4 SU when off a game in which they've scored 115 points or more this season. Additionally, Toronto is 21-7 SU this season when facing a team that is allowing 106 points or more per game on the season. The Raptors lost their most recent road game by 29 points. After getting thoroughly embarrassed in Orlando, they've had this road game circled blood red and it is payback time for Leonard and Company! 10* TORONTO |
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01-03-19 | NC State v. Miami-FL +3.5 | Top | 87-82 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes (+) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 7 ET - The Wolfpack are a ranked team that is 12-1 on the season and, as such, they are very popular in the betting markets as they opened up as a very small favorite here. In typical contrarian fashion I'll take advantage of the line value on the other side as there has already been a move toward NC State early this morning and it has led to solid home dog value with Miami. The lone loss that the Wolfpack has this season was in their only true road game. 10 of their 13 games have been at home and two were neutral site games. The only road game was against the Badgers in Madison, WI. Not only did NC State lead that game by 7 at the half, there will still up by 8 with about 7 minutes to go! From that point on Wisconsin outscored them by a dozen points and the Wolfpack fell short. Don't be surprised if tonight plays out in similar fashion. NC State has a 10 man rotation but half of those players are freshmen and sophomores. Miami has a 7-man rotation with truly just 6 key players (at least until Hernandez is eligible to return). This is a detriment when they are on short rest BUT this is NOT a short rest situation. The Hurricanes have fresh legs and they also have won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Wolfpack are a long-term 6-14 SU in road games and also have lost 6 of their last 9 visits to Miami. The Canes are a long-term 31-6 SU in home games. NC State is overvalued here because they've been strong SU and ATS this season. The Hurricanes at home are not getting enough respect in this one. I expect an outright upset but am happy to grab the points being offered as extra "insurance" in this one. 10* MIAMI |
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