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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-11-23 | Missouri v. Alabama -9.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
03-10-23 | Cavs +2.5 v. Heat | 115-119 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Cavaliers on the road, as they just took down this same Heat team on Wednesday night and they are the better offensive team in this matchup. They will find different ways to score, as they have the ninth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they have the sixth-highest team shooting percentage. They will efficiently score against this Heat defense and slowly pull away throughout this game. Miami will have a difficult time keeping up with the Cavs, as they have continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, they only have the 26th-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are averaging the least amount of points per game. The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the NBA and they will be ready for this game on the road. They will clamp down on the Heat and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. The Cavaliers are currently holding their opponents to the least amount of points per game and they have the lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will dominate on both ends of the court and cover the spread in this game. |
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03-10-23 | Nets +4.5 v. Wolves | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though they'll be playing for the second-straight night, the Nets were able to rest their starters on Thursday, which will serve them well in covering the spread and springing the upset in this one. They have the wing talent to make a difference in this one and while the frontcourt has been a disadvantage to them on most nights, this is a matchup where that can be minimized. For the Timberwolves, a lack of solid home-court advantage has been a challenge for them to overcome as well. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days of rest. |
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03-10-23 | Blazers +8.5 v. 76ers | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The history book shows Portland 21-12 SU and 18-13-2 ATS in this series when Philly sports a .426 or greater win percentage, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season loss. Meanwhile, the Sixers enter off a same season revenge contest of their own with the Timberwolves toting a 4-12 ATS ledger as home chalk after meetings with Minnesota while having a same-season double revenger on deck with Washington. Connect the dots and put the Trail Blazers on your playlist tonight. |
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03-10-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 85-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The teams split two meetings this season with each team winning at home. Miami walloped Duke at home in their previous contest, prevailing by 22 points. Duke has won seven straight games as they have turned things around after a slow start on the offensive end of the floor. The Blue Devils are going to be tested defensively by an explosive Miami offensive unit. Miami does have plenty of experience to build around and they are facing a Duke team that is rather lacking in that department. The Blue Devils have played well of late but Miami has the ability to outgun teams almost at will. Give the Hurricanes the slight advantage as they punch their ticket to the title game. |
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03-09-23 | Nets v. Bucks -12 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have some of the best depth in the NBA and even with their injuries, adding that depth to their homecourt advantage, will be too much for the Nets to overcome. Brooklyn continues their road trip and with fatigue setting in, they don't have the legs to keep up with the Bucks in this one. The biggest difference between these two sides is their rebounding ability and with the Bucks having that advantage on the glass on both ends, their ability to dominate in second-chance scoring will push them forward toward covering the spread in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played off of one day of rest, while they are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. |
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03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Dubs have won five out of the last six games against the Grizzlies overall, but they are 5-0 at home during that stretch. On the road, Memphis has beaten the Warriors in four of the last games straight up, and the Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in the last six games against the Warriors at FedEx Forum. I understand Morant will not be playing, but Memphis is 4-1 straight up in home games without him this season. Both of these teams have been so drastically different at home vs on the road this season. I have to take the home dog here. |
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03-09-23 | Arkansas v. Auburn +3 | 76-73 | Push | 0 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams come into this matchup after poor finishes to the season. Auburn won the regular season battle comfortably, dominating the glass and winning the battle of points off of turnovers. Auburn should once again dominate the glass and get frequent second-chance opportunities against the Razorbacks. Auburn is 20-5 on the season as a favorite while Arkansas has yet to win a game this season as an underdog. The Tigers certainly want to improve their NCAA Tournament position and will do so in this game thanks to their defense and rebounding. |
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03-09-23 | Wake Forest v. Miami-FL -6 | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After staging a spirited comeback attempt against the New Jersey Devils on Sunday, the Arizona Coyotes hope to carry that vibe into today's home game against the St. Louis Blues. The Coyotes rallied from a 4-2 deficit to tie the game and force overtime with the Devils at Mullett Arena. The Blues are 1-5-2 in their last eight. These teams split their first two games this season. The Coyotes won 5-0 at home on Jan. 26 on Karel Vejmelka's 33-save shutout. Consider that the Blues are 8-21 in their last 29 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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03-07-23 | Warriors v. Thunder +4.5 | 128-137 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s getting nitty-gritty time for the Thunder who find themselves 1.5 games back of the 10th and final playoff seed in the Western Conference at press time. The good news is they will carry a double revenge chip on their shoulders into this contest from a pair of setbacks they suffered at the hands of the Warriors in January and February earlier this year. And they’ll do so on a home court where they stood 18-12 SUATS this season at press time. Better yet, the big boom is 4-1-1 ATS this season when seeking same season revenge from a 20-plus point same-season defeat while the Dubs are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS away on Tuesdays. With Goldie arriving off a revenge tussle with the Lakers, there's only one way to look here. |
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03-07-23 | Bucks -7 v. Magic | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee finally lost a game over the weekend, but the Bucks immediately got back on track. They also held a big lead in their loss to the 76ers, so they could easily be riding an 18-game winning streak right now. I am not ready to fade them at this point, as they have covered the spread at an 8-2-2 clip in their last 12 games. They have also covered in four of their last five games against Orlando, cruising to a 22-point win as 8-point favorites when these teams met last week. I don’t see any reason why the Magic will be better prepared to cover the spread this time around, especially with Milwaukee facing a tight battle for the No. 1 seed. |
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03-07-23 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame has struggled all season long and they have dropped five straight meetings with Virginia Tech entering this contest. None of that instills confidence in their chances here. For that matter, their short rotation is problematic against a Hokies team that has pretty decent depth to work with and who are a good scoring unit. Should Starling miss this game as he has the last three, Notre Dame’s already thin group takes another hit and that makes for too deep a hole for them to dig out of here. The Fighting Irish aren’t good enough defensively to overcome missing one of their better offensive players. Virginia Tech brings the curtain down on the Brey era by prevailing here to advance to the second round. |
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03-06-23 | San Francisco v. Gonzaga -14 | 73-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Consider that the Dons are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win, 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. While the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. |
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03-06-23 | Raptors v. Nuggets -6 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver is on fire, winning 11 of their last 14 contests, but they are not just winning games – they are dominating them. The last three opponents have been defeated by at least 10 points and they have won each of their last six games at home by at least nine points. The Nuggets are now 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Toronto has lost two of their last three games on the road and it took overtime to win in Washington. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road when facing a team with a winning percentage of greater than 60% at home. Denver is tough to beat already, posting the top shooting percentage in the NBA while Toronto is one of the worst teams in terms of shutting opponents down. Not a good match-up for the Raptors at all. |
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03-06-23 | BYU v. St. Mary's -7 | 69-76 | Push | 0 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Gaels will win straight-up and cover as spread favorites, forcing BYU into enough turnovers to separate on the scoreboard. Saint Mary's slow-tempo approach (359th in pace of play) will put pressure on the Cougars to maximize their offensive opportunities, which will be problematic for a team that averages over 14 turnovers per game, one of the highest turnover ratios in the NCAA. The Cougars will not be able to rely on offensive rebounds, either, as Saint Mary's boasts a +7.1 rebounding margin. I bet the Gaels will win with an efficient shooting performance (52.8 eFG%, 37.2 3PT%) and stout defense (5th in defensive efficiency). |
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03-06-23 | Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland has been one of the league’s best home teams this season, going 27-7 in its 34 outings. The Cavaliers have also covered the spread at a 21-11-2 clip in those games, so they have been an excellent betting option at home. This is another profitable spot to back them, as Boston is on the second leg of a back-to-back and is going to lack energy against the top defense in the NBA. Cleveland is also coming off a strong performance against Detroit and will be motivated to get revenge for its loss to Boston last week. The Celtics are also dealing with several key injuries, giving me another reason to back Cleveland today. |
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03-06-23 | Northern Kentucky +3.5 v. Youngstown State | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Norse are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning record, 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games. While the Penguins are 2-8 in their last 10 neutral site games. |
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03-05-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Celtics | 131-129 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York has already beaten Boston during their eight-game winning streak, winning 109-94 on February 27. That was the second straight time that they had beaten the Celtics, earning an overtime victory in Boston on January 26. While the Celtics may be higher up in the standings, New York is not the least bit intimidated by them and has been playing better basketball than Boston over the last 10 days. Right now, it is the way that New York is defeating opponents that is quite impressive. During the winning streak, they have beaten five of the eight opponents by at least 15 points, with Boston being one of those victories. The Celtics suddenly find themselves battling through a lot of close contests and look like they will be clipped in this game. |
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03-05-23 | Pacers v. Bulls -5.5 | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The good news for the Windy City crew is its 8-2 ATS record in this series when seeking same season double revenge exact, including 4-0 ATS at home as well as 5-0 ATS with revenge from a most recent loss of 10 or fewer points. The recent swoon by the Bulls (2-7 SUATS previous nine games entering March) helps to make the price right today, and with it we’ll be there. Remember, the Pacers took a 5-17 SU and 9-13 ATS ledger into the month of March itself, so the Naptown arsonists arrive with a combustible warning of their own. Finally, consider that Indiana is 11-25-1 ATS away versus foes seeking same-season double revenge, including 0-4 ATS the last four games. |
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03-05-23 | South Florida +7 v. Wichita State | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units South Florida will cover the spread on Sunday, playing a more complete game than it did in the first meeting with Wichita State. The Bulls are coming off a rousing Senior Night victory and the Shockers are hoping to rebound from deflating second-half letdown at the hands of number-one Houston. WSU shot over 60 percent in that game and still lost, turning the ball over 18 times. It won't have similar efficiency from the field against the Bulls and could struggle in the rebounding department if Tchewa is available to suit up. |
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03-05-23 | SMU v. Cincinnati -11 | 74-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. While the Bearcats are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. |
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03-04-23 | Connecticut v. Villanova +3 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NCAAB Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Cats are playing their best ball of the season at the right time. Even so, 16-14 Villanova will likely need to win out thru the Big East tourney in order to capture an invite into the NCAA Tournament for the 17th time in the last 18 Dances. Meanwhile, UConn took the opposite approach to the season, opening the campaign on a 14-0 winning run before going just 9-7 heading into March. Still, with 23 wins at press time, the Huskies all but have their NCAA tourney ticket punched. A trip to the archives tells us Villanova is 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in this series, as well as 9-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in Last Home Games. Then there’s the program’s intimidating history: winning the Big East regular season championship 7 of the last 9 years, and the Big East conference tournament 5 of the last 8 years. Yes, they miss Jay Wright, but these are still the players he recruited and they won’t back down now. With a 10-3 SU effort at home this season and revenge for a 74-66 loss to UConn in late December, we seal the deal for Villanova with the fact that UConn is 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS against foes playing their final home game of the season, including 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS when the Huskies sport a .586 or greater win percentage. |
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03-04-23 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech -6 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas Tech has been streaky this season as they started the year 10-2, dropped eight in a row, then won six of eight before losing their last two games. The Red Raiders aren’t quite as stingy defensively as they’ve been in recent seasons but they are at home here. Texas Tech is 11-5 at home while Oklahoma State has posted just a 4-7 mark as the visiting team on the year. The Cowboys have slumped of late with five straight losses and they have only two road wins in conference play. Oklahoma State doesn’t have great offensive firepower and that proves to be their undoing as the Red Raiders earn a home win to close the regular season on a positive note. |
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03-04-23 | Kentucky +5 v. Arkansas | 88-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Arkansas is coming off back-to-back losses to ranked opponents, while Kentucky took a tough 68-66 defeat against Vanderbilt on Wednesday. After their regular-season finale, the Southeastern Conference tournament awaits, and both teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Calipari kept praising his players for the fight they showed against the Commodores. The Wildcats (20-10, 11-6 SEC) trailed by 11 in the second half and rallied to take a two-point lead with 1:10 left on a jumper by Oscar Tshiebwe'. Vanderbilt's Jordan Wright scored the next two baskets, and the Wildcats' Antonio Reeves missed a 3-point attempt at the buzzer. Consider that the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. |
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03-04-23 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -4.5 | Top | 81-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
NCAAB Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Huggins led the Wildcats in 2006 and 2007, and he’s currently 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with same-season revenge of 4 or more points at WVU against KSU (Wildcats beat West Virginia on New Year’s Eve, 82-76). It’s been an inconsistent season for WVU, though expectations were low after only 1 starter returned from the previous campaign’s 16-17 squad. But even though the Hillbillies have won just twice in their last six games, those two wins came in their last three outings. Owners of a 17-13 record at press time, the Huggies are sitting firmly on the NCAA bubble and needs this like kielbasa needs sauerkraut. Not so for the Wildcats, who are sitting pretty after knocking off Oklahoma to improve to 23-7 with 11 wins in Big 12 play. This is not a good role for the visitors, though, as they’re 0-3 SUATS against foes in Last Home Games playing with same-season revenge of 6 or fewer points. The Manhattan Cats are also just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS away in Big 12 Last Road Games in regular season finales. Finally, Huggy’s team is 12-4 SU in WVU Coliseum this season, which fits right in with the fact that WVU head coach Bob Huggins is 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS in Last Home Games when playing with three or more days of rest, including 7-0 SUATS with West Virginia |
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03-04-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -6.5 | 78-84 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Ohio State Buckeyes recently had a nine-game losing streak which they finally ended last week. It’s been a disastrous season for a squad that has plenty of skill. They have not been a reliable team, covering in only two of their last ten bouts. The Michigan State Spartans have only lost two Big Ten home games all season. The Buckeyes' defense has been the culprit in many losses. They are squandering 102.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 113th while the Spartans are only allowing 96.3 points per 100. MSU has averaged a remarkable 88 points in their last three games. The Spartans completely dominated the Buckeyes last month on the road, winning by 20 points. |
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03-02-23 | Washington State v. Washington +2 | 93-84 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are playing pretty well and neither is an offensive juggernaut. Washington has covered four straight in this series. Washington State barely won the first game at home as Brooks shot just 4-of-16 from the field. The Huskies shoot it much better at home, where they make 44.3% of their shots and allow just 40.5% from the field. On the other hand, Washington State is shooting under 40% (38.6%) from the field on the road. Take the points. |
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03-02-23 | Stanford v. Oregon State +5.5 | 83-60 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two Pac-12 bottom feeders meet up Thursday night when Stanford battles Oregon State at Corvallis, Ore. The Cardinal (12-17, 6-12 Pac-12) are in 10th place in the 12-team conference while the Beavers (10-19, 4-14) are 11th. Stanford is hoping to build momentum after Sunday's solid 81-69 home victory over Washington. The victory was just the second in the past seven games for the Cardinal. |
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03-02-23 | Pacers -6 v. Spurs | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s very challenging to know what a win is going to do mentally and emotionally for a San Antonio team that had lost 16 straight games. I am not ready to take the leap on the Spurs just yet, though, and the betting market doesn’t appear to be either. This spread quickly moved one point towards Indiana after the opener was released, as the Spurs have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 16 games. They have also failed to cover in six straight home games against Indiana. The Pacers have also started to round into playoff form, covering the number in four of their last five contests. |
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03-02-23 | Raptors v. Wizards +2 | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be a pretty good game as Porzinigis is expected to return for this one. That helps even out the length advantage that Toronto normally has. Toronto is just 11-19 on the road and while Poetl was a nice pickup, Washington faced him on Jan. 30 when Porzingis put up 17 points, nine rebounds and seven assists with five blocks in a 127-106 win over the Spurs. Toronto is not the Spurs, but here we are, with the playoffs coming up and they are still under .500. They should have done more at the trade deadline because the chemistry is obviously not working. Neither is their defensive effort. |
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03-02-23 | Michigan +5 v. Illinois | 87-91 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units' Juan Howard’s Wolverine hoopsters are in need of every win they can muster if they wish to impress the selection committee. Fortunately for Howard, his team has responded with a 5-2 SUATS February compared to a middling 3-3 SUATS effort from the Illini. The Wolverines are 6-1-1 ATS with revenge in this series (Illini took them down twice last season) when Illinois enters with a sub. 700 win percentage, and the WOM reminds us the Wolves are 8-4 ATS as a dog during the regular season following a LHG, including 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS when facing sub .750 foes. As if that’s not enough to contend with, Illinois is staring down a double revenge affair of its own on tap with highly-ranked Purdue. Remember, Michigan was a preseason Top 20 pick in the polls, so the talent is still there. |
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02-27-23 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +1.5 | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bears had dropped two straight games to Kansas and Kansas State prior to a same-season revenger against Texas at Waco over the weekend, and they’re just 4-20 SU and 8-16 ATS after the Longhorns, including 3-14 ATS when coming off a loss (check Saturday result). That doesn’t bode well considering the Pokes are 6-0-1 ATS in this series with same-season revenge from a loss of 7 or more points when Baylor takes the floor with a greater than .666 win percentage. Oklahoma State also performs well in Last Home Games, going 21-7 SU and 18-10 ATS the last this role, including 3-0 SUATS with same-season revenge of 15-plus points. Home teams in the Big 12 have fl exed their muscles this campaign, going 123-28 SU overall and 50-25 SU in conference clashes. Those stats look especially good when the visiting Bears bring a woeful 5-22 ATS record when coming off a home game and facing foes in LHGs. |
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02-27-23 | Magic +4 v. Pelicans | 101-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando pulled off a 13-point victory a month ago and now heads to New Orleans looking to try to sweep the season series. Prior to that victory, the road team had won the previous four games and the road team is 7-3 straight up in the last 10. Another thing you should like is that the Magic are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in New Orleans. While the Pelicans may win this game, 5.0 points may be a little too much for them in this contest. They have dropped three in a row and four of the last five. This team has only beaten two of their last four opponents by more than five points, so take the Magic and the points. |
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02-27-23 | Celtics v. Knicks +3 | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Red-hot Atlantic Division rivals collide when the Boston Celtics come to the Mecca of basketball to face the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Boston is on a three-game run with just a single loss in its previous eight games (7-1 ATS) while New York rides a five-game winning streak and has also only tasted defeat once in its past eight outings (6-1-1 ATS). Julius Randle has been at his best of late and while the Celtics have the NBA's best record, they'll be without Jaylen Brown. As a result, they'll be playing much smaller, leaving ample opportunity for Randle to shine down low. |
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02-27-23 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Charlotte Hornets, as they have won four games in a row and they are the better defensive team in this matchup. The Pistons are also one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, as they continue to slide in the wrong direction. They are scoring the 27th most points per game and they are allowing the second-most points. They will continue to struggle on both ends of the court, as Charlotte will slowly pulls away. The Hornets are also scoring 112.6 points per game and they looked great against the Heat the last time they were on the floor. They will find consistent open shots throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. They will also sprint the ball up and down the court, as they will have plenty of scoring opportunities to cover this spread. Detroit only has the 28th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing their opponents to shoot 49% from the floor. They aren't applying enough pressure, as the Hornets will make them pay. Charlotte is playing solid basketball right now. |
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02-26-23 | Rockets v. Blazers -9.5 | 114-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’m not going to overthink this matchup. The Trail Blazers will get both Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant back, so I’m expecting Portland to beat Houston with ease. The Blazers have covered the spread in each of their previous two meetings with the Rockets, winning by 12 and 14 points. Damian Lillard will dominate the Rockets’ defense. He’s been unstoppable all season, tallying 31.4 points and 7.3 assists per game. Lillard has scored 38 or more points in seven of his previous 11 appearances. |
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02-26-23 | UCLA -6.5 v. Colorado | 60-56 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UCLA has not only won seven in a row but is 4-2-1 ATS in that span. Colorado is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Bruins beat a double-digit spread against the Buffaloes last time despite trailing for over half the game. Their defense absolutely shut down an inefficient Colorado offense and should be able to do it again. I wouldn't worry about UCLA playing on the road either, as they're 8-2 in away games this season and 6-3-1 ATS. I'm riding a team that's hot and has an elite defense against a team that's cold and has a lackluster offense. Take UCLA to cover. |
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02-26-23 | Missouri State v. Indiana State -7.5 | 66-62 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Currently in a three-way tie for 3rd place in the MVC, the 5-returning starter Sycamores have been on a scorching 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS skein with the only loss coming by a single point at Belmont, 89-88. We expect them to return to their winning ways here, especially since they were nipped by Missouri State, 64-62, in Springfi eld in mid-January. In the 11 games since beating the Sycamores, the Bears are a money-burning 2-8-1 ATS. Yes, they arrive off a off same season revenge victory over Murray State, but they’re just 1-3 ATS after running with the Racers. The final coffin nail for Missouri State is its 0-5 ATS failure in the last five games when coming off a win. Additionally, Indiana State is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in Last Home Games of the season, including 4-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge. |
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02-26-23 | Northwestern v. Maryland -6.5 | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 1 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Maryland is unbeaten in its nine conference home games this season, making the Terrapins a team that I am thrilled to back on Sunday afternoon, especially given the circumstances. Northwestern is coming off its most disappointing loss of the season, blowing a 16-point lead in the second half of its game against Illinois. The Wildcats have only won three of the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these teams, and they have a major emotional hurdle to overcome in this contest. Maryland has covered in eight of its last 11 games and should fare well against a Northwestern offense that has a tendency to go cold. |
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02-25-23 | Spurs v. Jazz -9.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs’ losing streak will eventually come to an end, but with all the injury problems among Gregg Popovich’s team, I can’t back San Antonio in a tough road matchup against Utah. The Jazz are struggling to defend at a high level, but they should be scoring at will against this Spurs team. San Antonio is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games overall. The Spurs beat the Jazz 126-122 in December, and Utah will be highly motivated to get revenge. Lauri Markkanen is poised for another strong performance, and the Jazz should make a lot of threes in this matchup. Utah is fifth in the league in triples made per 100 possessions (14.0).  |
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02-25-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Philly is 24-6 SU and 22-10 ATS at home this season, and ranks No. 3 overall in the league in Team Scoring Defense. On the fl ip side, Boston’s Achilles Heel is its 28th ranked effort in Team Rebounds this season. In addition, the shamrocks were riding a 0-5 SUATS skein here in this series until the aforementioned win they scored late in the campaign last season. With the Celts coming off a same season revenge win at Indiana on Thursday, and staring dead ahead to same-season revenge rematches with the Knicks and the Cavs, we need to consider that the Sixers are 12-0 SUATS at home this season when seeking same-season loss revenge. |
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02-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue -7.5 | 79-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana has dropped its last 2 games on the road against Northwestern (64-62, Feb. 15) and Michigan State (80-65, Tuesday), and the Hoosiers are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) across the past 3 games overall. It seems like forever since the Hoosiers picked up a 79-74 win over the rival Boilermakers, but it was just on Feb. 4. Purdue snapped a 2-game mini skid with an emphatic 82-55 win over disappointing Ohio State Sunday. While the Boilermakers have dropped 3 in a row on the road, they love a little home cooking, going 15-1 at home. |
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02-25-23 | Boise State v. San Jose State +3.5 | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boise State is currently breathing down the neck of MWC leader San Diego State, just one game back at press time. Then there’s the ugly fact that it’s been almost a month since BSU cashed a ticket, going 6-1 SU but only 1-6 ATS. Conference road favorites on a 5-game ATS losing skid like Boise are just 7-13 ATS against winning opposition, including 3-10 SUATS when favored by 4 or fewer points. And not only are the Spartans 3-0 ATS the last three games in this series, and 3-0 SUATS at home when coming off a previous home loss, they’ve logged a competitive 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS home record at The Event Center this season. With the Broncos taking the court off a same-season revenge win against New Mexico and sporting just a 3-7 ATS effort against avenging foes in post-Lobo competitions, west coast Sparty gets the call. |
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02-25-23 | Arkansas v. Alabama -8 | 83-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the South Carolina game was nearly a disaster, being back home should bring Bama back to their usual dominance. At home, they are significantly better on both ends of the floor than their season averages, and their numbers this season are already elite. Along with that, they're 9-4-0 ATS at home while Arkansas is 2-6-0 ATS on the road. These teams play the same brand of basketball, Alabama just does everything better. The first game proved that, and now that this one is in Tuscaloosa, Alabama should roll into another resounding victory. Take the Crimson Tide to cover the spread against the Razorbacks again. |
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02-25-23 | Missouri v. Georgia +3.5 | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
CBB Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units The Dawgs are 3-0 ATS home as a dog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in this series, 3-0 SUATS as a conference home dog when coming off a loss of 30-plus points, and 5-1 ATS as conference home dogs over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Missouri stands just 2-4 SUATS in games after battling MSU and the Tigers have struggled to cash tickets of late, going just 1-5 ATS in their six most recent outings. In this battle of cats and dogs, we’ll back the Dawgs with added support coming knowing that playing on any college hoops home dog with a winning record coming off consecutive losses of 28 or more points is 7-1 ATS since 1990. |
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02-25-23 | Michigan State v. Iowa -5.5 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units I am not overly concerned about Iowa’s recent losses on the road, as the Hawkeyes have been much better at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They rely almost entirely on their offense to win games, making them a team to back at home and fade on the road. In fact, they have won seven straight home games coming into this contest, and they should be in somewhat of a desperation mode to get back on track with NCAA Tournament seeding. Michigan State has only covered the spread once in the last five meetings between these teams and its dependence on 3-point shots makes is going to cost the Spartans on Saturday. |
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02-24-23 | Hornets v. Wolves -6.5 | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wolves are a sharp 3-1 SUATS at home in games when coming off three-plus days of rest, while the Stingers are just 2-12 SU and 5-9 ATS in non-division games when coming off a win. However, Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last five games this season when coming off one loss |
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02-24-23 | Heat +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 99-128 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The majority of games on tonight’s NBA game are laced with teams each playing with 8 days of rest on this post All-Star Friday. And 8 is a magic number for Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra who brings a career log of 7-1 ATS when his troops are playing with eight or more days of rest during the regular season (read: post All-Star game), including 6-0 ATS when facing .400 or greater opponents. Foremost on their minds tonight, though, will be exacting revenge from a 123-115 loss here three weeks ago. And with it the stars should be lined in their favor. On the other side of the court Milwaukee is 1-6 ATS in this series when operating on three or more days of rest. Finally, Miami is 10-1 ATS when seeking revenge from a same season defeat of fewer than 20 points when coming off a double-digit defeat and facing a foe that is coming off a double-digit win. |
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02-24-23 | Xavier v. Seton Hall +1.5 | 82-60 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Xavier was one of just three teams with a chance to catch conference-leading Marquette before the league tournament. However, with a 20-win season in check (see Saturday result vs DePaul) and coming off a tussle at home against Villanova, this looks to be a natural let down spot for the X-Men. That notion is supported by the Musketeers’ 4-9 ATS effort versus .600 or fewer opponents this season, including 0-5 ATS the last five. The revenge angle is more than a notion, however, as the Pirates lost at the Cintas Center back in December, 73-70, and just so happen to own a 4-0 SUATS mark with revenge in this series of late. Most importantly for the kids in the Hall are squarely on the ever-shifting NCAA bubble. But we’ve got no time for bubble talk, not when we can tell you the Pirates own a rock-solid 20-10 ATS ledger as dogs versus .750 or greater foes. Grab the points. |
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02-23-23 | UCLA -7 v. Utah | 78-71 | Push | 0 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bruins took the first matchup between these two teams by 19 points while holding the Utes to just 49 points overall. UCLA has won seven of the last ten meetings between the two schools. They have the best road mark in the Pac-12 at 7-2 and are 22-2 this season as a favorite. UCLA is 5-3-1 ATS on the road this year as well. They have won six straight against Utah and are 4-2 ATS in that time. Additionally, Utah is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games. |
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02-23-23 | Celtics -8 v. Pacers | 142-138 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics fell to Indiana back in December by seven points at the TD Garden in the only matchup between these two teams. Since then, however, the Celtics' defense has improved significantly, and they are as healthy as they've been all season heading out of the All-Star break. Indiana's poor perimeter defense will not play well to a Celtics team that is sixth in the NBA in 3pt shooting. The Celtics also have a significant advantage on the wings with the Pacers not having the types of defenders to match up with Brown or Tatum. The Celtics will also enjoy a rare, significant advantage on the glass against a Pacers team that is ranked just 21st in the NBA in total rebounding. Look for Boston's defense to stifle the Pacers and the team's perimeter shooting to bury Indiana. |
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02-22-23 | New Mexico v. Boise State -6 | 77-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Mexico went on a 0-4 SUATS losing skid when the Valentine month rolled around and took a 0-3 ATS record against avenging foes this season into San Jose State at press time. No such misery has befallen the Broncos, currently one loss back of San Diego State for the top spot in the MWC. Boise State has a huge advantage in momentum, winning 10 of its last 12 contests before hosting UNLV on Sunday. And guess what? One of those two defeats came in an 81-79 close-call OT loss to the Lobos in Albuquerque a month ago. Big Blue is 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS versus .600 or greater foes this season, including 2-0 SUATS when playing the revenge card. Best of all, the Broncos have dictated the point spread outcomes in this series of late, going 8-1 ATS. Simply put, we’re seeing signs of the Lobos packing their bags early this season. |
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02-22-23 | South Florida v. UCF -8.5 | 82-75 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fortunately for UCF fans, the series host is on a money-making 14-3 ATS run. That sets the table for big-time revenge, as the Bulls tripped up the Knights, 85-72, as 4.5-point home dogs a month ago. In addition to being 26-1-1 ATS in outright conference wins when seeking revenge, the formerly golden Knights stand 3-0 SUATS in this series when seeking same-season loss revenge. Considering South Florida is 1-10 SU versus .570 or great foes this season – with the lone win versus UCF – Finally, USF is 0-18 ATS in its last 18 outright conference losses versus avenging foes. |
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02-22-23 | Bradley -8 v. Valparaiso | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I can't find a reason not to bet on Bradley in this one. They're better than Valpo on a per-possession basis in nearly every statistic. They've won eight straight and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. They won four of those six games by double digits. Meanwhile, Valpo is 1-3-0 ATS in their last four. The Beacons' only edge in the first game was with fouls. They committed 10 fewer than Valpo did and finished with 17 more free throw attempts. Despite that, Valpo never had a lead in the game and trailed by as much as 33. That game was never close, and this game shouldn't be either. |
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02-20-23 | Louisville +19 v. Duke | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals rode the moment of the 10-year anniversary of a championship team and a packed house on Saturday to pull off their biggest upset of the season. Looking a little deeper, however, the Cardinals have played significantly better over the latter part of this season. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. They are also a respectable 4-4 ATS on the road this season. Meanwhile, Duke comes in just 6-7 ATS at home this season despite being 13-0. Additionally, the Blue Devils are 3-10 in their last 13 games ATS. Duke will win this game but the Cardinals will continue their recent momentum and cover this line. |
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02-20-23 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -5 | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I do not trust Oklahoma State’s offense to come up with enough buckets to keep pace with West Virginia on Monday night. I am also extremely concerned about the defensive effort that they showed on Saturday, as they have been one of the top defensive teams in college basketball this season. This is a rough spot to try to turn things around, as West Virginia is in a revenge spot at home and tends to play better at its home arena due to the offensive-minded nature of its lineup. Oklahoma State’s bad offense tends to be the deciding factor away from home, as it is 4-12 in its last 16 road games. |
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02-19-23 | Maryland v. Nebraska +5.5 | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Huskers will win straight-up at home vs. Maryland. They'll have another hot shooting night, especially from three, which will be tough for the Terps (335th in 3PT%) to duplicate. When Maryland gets on a roll, it reminds us why the Big Ten was siked to add the program to its collection of hoops powerhouses. It's too soon, though, to expect Maryland to rise to the top of the conference under a new head coach. Winning six of seven is great for the direction of the program, but UM's luck will run out on the road against a Nebraska team that's better than it has played this season. |
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02-19-23 | Memphis +14 v. Houston | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The fact is the Tigers were whipped by the Cougars, 71-53, in the finals of the AAC title game last season – causing today’s ‘Revenge’ domino to set things in motion. First, Memphis is 12-3 ATS in this series, including 5-0 ATS when seeking revenge, and 6-0 ATS when coming off a win. Next, the guys from Graceland are 8-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS when seeking LTKO (League Tourney Knock Out) revenge, including 5-0 ATS when coming off a win. And like OJ’s hand struggling to fi t in the famous glove, Houston can offer up only a 1-5 ATS failure at home versus LTKO seeking foes in its defense, including 0-4 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. Look, the Cougars have made all their money on the road this season, going 7-1 ATS as a visitor as opposed to just 8-8 ATS as a host, including a gaudy 0-7 ATS against .430 or greater opposition. |
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02-19-23 | Ohio State v. Purdue -11 | 55-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ohio State continues to be an unbackable team right now, as it is winless straight up and against the spread in seven straight games. The Buckeyes are running into a Purdue team that is returning home angry after suffering its first losing streak of the campaign. The Boilermakers have won four of their last five games against Ohio State and are riding a five-game home winning streak. They already went on the road and beat the Buckeyes once this season, as the Buckeyes do not have enough length to deal with Edey. I expect Purdue to get back on track with an emphatic win against a disastrous Ohio State squad. |
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02-18-23 | Colorado +13 v. Arizona | Top | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
CBB Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Arizona bested the Buffs, 82-72, in the semifinals of the P-12 tourney last season – as they bring a sterling 16-2 ATS ledger into this affair when they sport a sub .570 win percentage on the season. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are coming off a decisive 88-62 revenge win over Utah on Thursday with archrival ASU up next, and Zona is just 6-16 ATS at home before facing the Sun Devils. Consider that Colorado is 9-1 ATS when seeking revenge from a conference tourney loss the previous season, including 7-0 ATS when the Buffaloes sport a sub .769 win percentage, as well as 6-0 ATS when facing .700 or greater opponents. |
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02-18-23 | Georgia v. Alabama -18.5 | 59-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dawgs are just 1-7 SU away under first-year coach Mike White, including 0-4 SUATS the last four by an average losing margin of more than 22 PPG. Uh oh. Then there’s how Bama responded after a previous loss to Oklahoma, absolutely destroying a decent Vanderbilt squad in a 101-44 rout. The fact of the matter is Alabama is loaded, currently the No. 3 team in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage – the stat every college head coach would give his eye teeth for – and will be looking to get even for losing to Georgia in Athens last year as 14.5-point chalk. The Bulldogs enter off a revenge win over LSU, going 0-3 SUATS after taking on the Tigers by an average losing score of 96-69. We don’t want any of that and neither should you, especially when the Crimson Tide stands 3-0 SUATS at home off a SU favorite loss with a win percentage of .830 or greater, by an average wipeout of 91-58. |
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02-18-23 | Pittsburgh +5.5 v. Virginia Tech | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Virginia Tech is another team that started the season strong only to see things come apart as the calendar flipped to 2023. The Hokies have gone just 4-10 in their last 14 games after opening the year 11-1, putting their chances at earning an at-large bid in March Madness in serious jeopardy. Pitt has defied expectations all season long, which is how they find themselves holding a share of the ACC lead this late in the season. The Panthers have played solid team basketball and they are above average on both ends of the floor. Pitt has an array of offensive weapons to rely on and a deep rotation. The Panthers aren’t intimidated playing in Blacksburg after already winning in Chapel Hill and battling Duke to the wire at Cameron Indoor. In addition, they are 7-2 as the visiting team straight up and 9-0 ATS this season. Pitt makes it seven straight wins as they earn a tough road win here. |
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02-18-23 | Old Dominion +4 v. Appalachian State | 74-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Appalachian State’s basketball team has finally found some traction, winning two of its last three to improve to 8-7 in conference play. That’s good enough for a tie with ODU in the league race, as the Monarchs dropped a 76-67 decision at James Madison on Thursday to slip to 8-7. Old Dominion also suffered a 14-point home loss to these Mountaineers a month ago, and we love winning teams taking points in payback roles, especially those who are 11-1 SUATS in games when coming off a loss, including 9-1 SUATS this season. Even better, the hill-dwellers are just 6-13 ATS as home chalk against avenging foes under head coach Dustin Kerns, including 1-8 ATS in games in which the Apps own a sub .570 win percentage. ASU is also coming off a revenge victory on Thursday against Texas State, and the Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS the last six at home after facing the Bobcats. |
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02-17-23 | New Mexico v. San Jose State -1 | 96-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's a tight spread, so I'm taking San José State to win and cover. For starters, a home team hasn't lost in this series since February 2018. Second, New Mexico is in a tailspin right now, as their four-game losing streak has been a product of shoddy defense. Since beating San José State, New Mexico is allowing 81.3 points per game and is 1-6-0 ATS. In their last seven, the Spartans are 5-2-0 ATS, with all five wins ATS coming by at least 10.5 points. New Mexico's defense can't stop anyone right now, and on the road against a team playing well, that should cost them dearly. I like San José State in this one. |
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02-17-23 | Dayton -6.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 65-49 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flyers have won four of their last five games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they shoot the ball well, making 47 percent of their shots. They rebound the ball well and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Ramblers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Ramblers aren’t very good defensively and they don’t play much better at home, giving up more than 71 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Flyers in this game. The Ramblers have lost four of their last six games and five of their last seven home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 72 points per game. They’ve struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Flyers and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Flyers, who averaged more than six steals per game in their last three games. The Flyers have played well defensively and they’re just as good on the road, holding opponents under 65 points per game, and will keep Loyola-Chicago’s offense in check. Go with Dayton to cover the spread. |
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02-17-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -17 | 54-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I think I would be backing Kent State in this matchup regardless of the way these teams played earlier this week, but those outcomes only make me feel even better about the Golden Flashes in this contest. They are coming off one of the best offensive showings of the season, while Eastern Michigan looked lifeless in its blowout loss. The Eagles are one of the worst defensive teams in college basketball, so I am not worried about Kent State’s offense scoring enough points to cover this number. The Golden Flashes have one of the longest active home winning streaks in college basketball (19) and are 15-1 in their last 16 home games against Eastern Michigan. |
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02-15-23 | Knicks +3.5 v. Hawks | 122-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have had this game circled ever since taking it on the chops in a 15-point loss to the Hawks earlier this season. With both teams in a virtual tie for the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, this contest is paramount for New York as far as tiebreakers go concerning playoff positioning. With it, the Knickerbockers bring a studly 24-14 SU and 28-10 ATS road record into the fray since March of last season. They are also 19-11-1 ATS of late in this series, while the Hawks tend to fl y low in games against foes seeking same-season revenge of more than 10 points, going 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS this campaign. The numbers all point to the points, and we’ll take whatever the books are offering up tonight. |
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02-15-23 | Pistons +12.5 v. Celtics | 109-127 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I will be picking the Detroit Pistons on the road and I am going to take the points. The Boston Celtics could be without Jayson Tatum in this game and Brown and Smart are already listed as out. I just don't believe the Celtics are healthy enough to cover this spread. If they had their original starting five playing, I would hammer them. But, that isn't the case. Detroit also battled with the Raptors in their last game, as they came up just short. They will come into this game motivated and do everything they can to keep this game within the spread. These two teams also played a week back, as the Celtics won 111-99. They covered the spread, but it was extremely close. Now, they don't have three of their best players on the floor, as this will hurt Boston in this game. If Tatum ends up playing, I like the Celtics. But, he is currently listed as doubtful, so I am going to ride with the Detroit Pistons. They will show up on the road and keep this game within the spread. |
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02-15-23 | Spurs v. Hornets -4.5 | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s tough to back the Spurs even though their losing streak will eventually come to an end. The Hornets just broke out of their slump and should win this game, too. With healthy LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward in the lineup, the Hornets have an excellent chance of exploiting the Spurs’ horrible defense. San Antonio is dead last in the league in opposing 3-point percentage (39.4%) and 29th in opposing 2-point percentage (57.2%). The Hornets are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven outings, but they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their previous four encounters with San Antonio. On the other side, the Spurs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. |
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02-15-23 | Alabama +3.5 v. Tennessee | 59-68 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Alabama Crimson Tide have climbed to #1 in the AP Top 25 and remain undefeated in SEC play. The Tennessee Volunteers are stumbling, losing three out of their last four games and the previous two losses were especially weak, losing to Vanderbilt and Missouri. Alabama is the superior team in the offensive end. They are averaging 117.4 points per 100 possessions, marking them 13th in all of DI while Tennessee is posting 112.3 points per 100. The Crimson Tide has an elite defense similar to the Volunteers, but recently it has been the Crimson Tide defense that has looked better. Tennessee allowed Vanderbilt to shoot 40% from deep two games ago and Missouri was able to sink 52% of their field goals against the Vols on Saturday. |
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02-14-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -8.5 | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors have been awful on the road this season and they are logging their second game of a back-to-back, not to mention their third game in four nights, in this one. Meanwhile, LA has been off since Friday, giving them three days of rest and a prime opportunity to get their trade acquisitions familiarized with the system. Hyland, Plumlee and Gordon are plugging in, adding some depth at key positions in an effort to bolster the second unit for LA. The Clippers are rested and you never know what Steve Kerr will do in relation to resting guys in a back-to-back situation. With Leonard likely to be on the floor for LA, give the edge to the hosts in this contest. |
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02-14-23 | Wyoming v. New Mexico -10 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Mexico pulled off a one-point victory the last time these teams met as Mashburn had 20 points. Wyoming matched New Mexico in almost every area during that game, but the Lobos hit one more free throw than the Cowboys, making that the margin of victory. Wyoming has been in a terrible funk, dropping 14 of 16 games since winning two in a row (December 6-10). They have lost each of their last three games by at least 10 points and have lost seven in a row by at least eight. |
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02-14-23 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +2.5 | 87-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Oklahoma State (16-9, 7-5 Big 12) gets a second chance at beating No. 5 Kansas (20-5, 8-4) on Tuesday night in Stillwater, Okla., after letting a 15-point halftime road lead get away on Dec. 31 and succumbing 69-67 to the then-No. 4 Jayhawks. A chance to force overtime came up short in the final seconds when Kansas' Kevin McCullar Jr. blocked a shot by Oklahoma State's Bryce Thompson. Speaking after Oklahoma State's 64-56 upset win at No. 11 Iowa State on Saturday, Cowboys guard Caleb Asberry reflected on the loss to Kansas. "We lost that game, a close one. We're ready to get that one back, too. Now we're in good contention to win this whole thing," Asberry said. Consider that the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. |
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02-14-23 | Creighton v. Providence +1.5 | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Revenge will be on the minds of the Friars in this matchup as well as a chance to climb into the thick of the Big East regular season title race. In the first matchup, Providence shot just above 30% in the first half and fell behind by 14 points before rallying in the second half and falling short. At home this season, Providence is a perfect 13-0 on the season while Creighton is a game under .500 on the road. Providence will come into this game looking to bounce back from a poor shooting performance against St. John's on the road. In the Friars' last three home wins, they have held the opposition to 64 points or younger in each of the outings. Providence will dominate the glass and slow down the red hot Bluejays. |
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02-13-23 | West Virginia +7 v. Baylor | 67-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bet on West Virginia to cover the spread Monday at Baylor. The Mountaineers, 20th overall in KenPom's rating database, are 18th in offensive efficiency and 40th in defensive efficiency this season. They're a solid team fighting to make the NCAA Tournament against a Baylor squad that's been tested a lot recently. The Bears will be in another closer game than they hoped to be in on Monday. With consecutive games against Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas looming, it's hard to blame Baylor for overlooking West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight-up loss and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these programs. Bet on WVU to at least cover in this Big 12 clash. |
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02-13-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Bulls | 100-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At first glance Chicago finds itself in the middle of a live division avenger sandwich, coming off a same season revenge contest with Cleveland with the same on deck against Indiana. That’s never good news when you’re hosting an avenging mad-as-hell non-division foe. Enter the sizzling hot Disney dolls who, after opening the season 5-19, were 18-14 SU and 23-9 ATS at press time. Finally, Chicago is 3-12 ATS at home in the middle of a division sandwich against non-division foes seeking same-season revenge or 6 or more points, including 1-10 ATS from game 32 out. |
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02-13-23 | Jazz v. Pacers +1.5 | 123-117 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The early betting action has been on Indiana, which is a movement that I agree with. The Pacers might be struggling right now, but they have only had Haliburton back for a few games. He completely changes the outlook of this team, which has created value on Indiana against a bad Utah team. The Jazz have not been good on the defensive end of the court, and they are facing a strong offense on Monday. They have only covered the spread once in their last five games, and they are 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games against Indiana. |
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02-12-23 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 62-41 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Ohio State has put in a dreadful 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS effort versus Big Ten foes. Yes, the Buckeyes ran out to a solid 10-3 start this campaign, but OSU enters Value City Arena today with a confusion-inducing 1-9 SUATS record in its last ten contests. As a result, Holtmann’s heroes are looking down with only one team – Minnesota – left between them and the bottom of the Big Ten cellar. Here comes more trouble, as the Spartans are 6-1 SUATS away in this series when looking to exact revenge from a loss the previous season, as well as 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS when seeking anytime revenge and playing on four or more days of rest, including 7-1 SUATS versus sub .740 foes. And with the Buckeyes losing four of their previous five home games, we expect to see a fully energized Izzo today. Finally, playing on Michigan State and head coach Tom Izzo with 3 or more days of rest from Game 20 out if they are seeking same-season revenge against a .700 or fewer conference opponent is 20-4 ATS since 1998. |
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02-12-23 | Temple +9 v. Memphis | 77-86 | Push | 0 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Temple Owls are excelling in conference play where they are 8-4. Temple is one of the better road squads, winning four of their last five AAC road games including the upset win against Houston. The only AAC road loss was a narrow one-point decision. The Memphis Tigers continue to have larger spreads but have only covered in one of their last four home games. The Owls' defense will keep them in this game. They are only conceding 100.5 points per 100 possessions compared to 97.4 per 100 by the Tigers. The Tigers are squandering too many points recently, surrendering at least 80 points in three of their last four games. |
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02-11-23 | BYU +13 v. Gonzaga | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The boys from Provo darn near beat the Zags in their last meeting, falling by just a single point, 75-74, and that sets the table for this payback. BYU is 3-0 ATS when seeking same season revenge from a 1-point conference loss, and head coach Mark Pope owns a glittering 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS record when coming off a loss of more than 10 points (BYU was toppled, 92-80, at Pepperdine on Thursday as -7.5 chalk). The ATS pickings are a bit more slim for the Zags, who are a shocking 3-14 ATS as a favorite after having been a favorite the previous game, including 1-9 ATS when favored by a dozen or fewer points. They’re also just 7-13 ATS when coming off a SUATS win and facing a conference foe seeking same-season revenge. Yes, Gonzaga has already won 20 games this season, but a lackluster 9-15 point spread effort means Few and company are not to be trusted. Finally consider that the Zags are 0-6 ATS this season when coming off a SUATS win of 6 or more points. |
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02-11-23 | Texas A&M v. LSU +7 | 74-62 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units LSU, at 12-12 are still very much alive for a postseason tourney bid, and they’ve had good fortune in games where they own a .500 mark, going 7-2 SU and 5-2 ATS. Plus, there’s the small matter of revenge from Texas A&M’s 69-56 curtailing of the Tigers when they met just over a month ago in College Station. LSU is also catching the Aggies at just the right time in their schedule, with A&M just completing a season sweep over Auburn and owning a weak 2-4 SUATS record after facing Aubbie when taking on .600 or fewer foes during the regular season. Feeling better now? We also can’t ignore the possibility that the Aggies could be looking dead ahead to a same-season revenge affair with Arkansas, and they’re just 1-5 ATS as chalk before Hogs hookups. Enough with this bug business! Join us as LSU begins its road back from infamy tonight. |
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02-11-23 | Detroit -12 v. Green Bay | 76-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Titans are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record, and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. While the Phoenix are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. |
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02-11-23 | 76ers v. Nets +1.5 | 101-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Before putting Brooklyn on your fade list remember, they are still the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race and they’ve performed admirably in conference play this season, winning 23 of 34 games outright, while going 7-4 ATS as underdogs. Complicating matters for the invading Sixers’ team is their skinny 2-9 SUATS mark in games without rest after facing the Knicks in games in which Philly was looking to avenge a same-season loss. With another same-season revenger on tap at home against the Rockets for the Sixers, we’re first in line here with Brooklyn looking to brush aside its spring-cleaning image today. Finally the Sixers are 23-36 SU and 21-38 ATS in the middle of a same-season revenge sandwich when facing foes with same-season revenge, including 0-8 ATS the last eight games. |
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02-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -6 | 64-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma State took the first meeting between these teams by only two points, but nailed nine three-point shots compared to only two made threes by the Cyclones. Iowa State is a different animal offensively at home, and I see things going their way in this revenge game on their home floor. The Cyclones average 75.6 ppg at home this season, which are 10 points more per game than what they have put up on the road, but Oklahoma State is averaging 67.7 ppg on the road, which are three points less per game in their home production. Iowa State is also knocking down 7.5 threes per game at home, compared to 6.7 threes per road game for Oklahoma State. The favorite has covered the number in nine of the last 12 games played in this rivalry, and I see Iowa State out shooting Oklahoma State in this, and winning by at least seven. |
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02-11-23 | Duke v. Virginia -6 | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Given the stakes and pressure, I like the Cavaliers here. Virginia has the experience advantage, and this will be a difficult matchup for the young Blue Devils, who have five freshmen in their eight-man rotation. Duke is only 1-7 against the spread in their last eight road games and just 1-9 against the spread when facing a winning team. Virginia is 4-1-1 in their previous six games against winning teams and has covered in four straight home games. |
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02-11-23 | Kansas v. Oklahoma +3.5 | 78-55 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma stands 6-2 SUATS at home with same-season revenge in this series, including 6-0 ATS when not laying points, plus the Sooners are 7-1 ATS overall the last eight games when they enter with a dead even .500 win percentage. More bad news for Kansas after their 8-point win over Texas on Monday, as the ‘Hawks are a mediocre 6-12 ATS post-Longhorns when favored against avenging foes, including 0-5 ATS during the regular season when coming off a SUATS win. It’s also a fact that KU doesn’t automatically cash a ticket with every SU win, as they’re just 9-9 ATS this season in games they win on the scoreboard. Tack on Moser’s 10-4 SUATS success at home when his troops are coming off three losses, including 6-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points, and we see Oklahoma assuming the role of ‘windshield’ here today. |
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02-10-23 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When it comes to a ‘game set-up’ they don’t get much better than tonight’s clash between the Grizzlies and the Timberwolves. For openers, Memphis returns home with a case of double same-season loss revenge on its mind, while catching the Wolves off a same season revenger with yet another one on deck. The Grizzlies are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS at home with a win percentage of .589 or better when seeking same-season double revenge, while the Timberwolves enter the den with a 9-19 SUATS record in this series, including 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS away. |
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02-10-23 | Hornets v. Celtics -10 | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even with a slightly depleted roster, including the loss of all-star Brown, the Celtics have a deeper and more talented team than the Hornets. Charlotte has struggled offensively this season and have lost five straight games, allowing an average of nearly 119 points per game. Boston will likely have both Williams and Horford back which will give the team a decided advantage on the glass against a Hornets team that just dealt away their leading rebounder. The Celtics are 3-0 against Charlotte this season and have defeated the Hornets by an average of 21 points per game. Look for that to continue in this spot. |
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02-10-23 | Xavier -6.5 v. Butler | 67-69 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Musketeers, who have won 14 of their last 16 games, stand 13-3 ATS away in this series, including 3-0 ATS with revenge. That’s because Butler made the mistake of knocking Xavier out in the donkey round, 89-82, of last year’s Big East tourney, and the Bulldogs are just 2-5 ATS at home against LTKO opponents. Their 3-40-1 ATS mark in SU conference home losses seals the deal. The Musketeers will skewer these guys. |
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02-09-23 | Bucks -8 v. Lakers | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’ve already said this before Milwaukee’s comfortable victory at Portland – I’m not going to stand in front of the red-hot Bucks. Milwaukee’s defense has been outstanding over the last few weeks, Giannis Antetokounmpo has dominated his opponents, while Khris Middleton is slowly but surely building up his form following an injury. Antetokounmpo has averaged 37.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 5.4 assists during the Bucks’ winning streak. The Lakers hope Anthony Davis will be able to slow Giannis down, but I’m still relying on Milwaukee’s defense to make the difference. The Bucks have allowed 110 or fewer points in four of their last seven outings, whereas the Lakers have yielded 121 or more in five of their previous six games overall. Los Angeles outlasted Milwaukee 133-129 in their first meeting of the season, but it was way back on December 2. |
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02-09-23 | Nuggets -6 v. Magic | 104-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver presents a nightmarish matchup for most teams but definitely the Orlando Magic. Orlando is banged up down low and now goes against the best big man in the NBA and one that can beat you inside and outside. While Orlando has defended the 3-ball well this season, they haven't run into a big that can pass as deftly as Jokic can out of the post. Jokic's passing is the primary reason Denver is ranked first in the NBA in 3pt shooting; he demands double teams and Denver spaces the floor well. The Nuggets had a hiccup against Minnesota two games ago but that won't happen against this Orlando team that lacks the fire power to run away from the Nuggets. Denver will run through Jokic and get open looks and take the fight out of the Magic in this one. |
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02-09-23 | Iowa v. Purdue -8 | 73-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Purdue is the type of team that I want to back at home, as it features a pair of freshman guards as two of its key players. The Boilermakers are generally going to play better in a comfortable environment. They put together one of their worst halves of the season in the first half at Indiana on Saturday, but they gave themselves some momentum coming into this matchup with a strong second half. Iowa has struggled away from home due to its reliance on its offense as well, going 1-4 in its last five road games. The Hawkeyes have only recorded one win in their last 12 games at Purdue, and they are going to struggle against the motivated Boilermakers. |
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02-08-23 | San Diego State v. Utah State -1.5 | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Aztecs have gone 10-2 in their last 12. However, USU looks to have an easier bout on the weekend’s undercard, taking on cellar-dweller Colorado State. The Aztecs face a much sterner test as Boise State comes to town in a race for the MWC lead. Utah State has fashioned a nice 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS record at home this season, and the series host is riding a 6-0 ATS skein. The Aggies lost to SDSU by 10 points at home earlier this season and the Aztecs are guilty of a poor 4-19 SU and 7-15-1 ATS effort versus foes with same-season revenge. Bear in mind that San Diego State’s scrap with Boise last Friday was a triple-revenge game for the Aztecs, so they may not have much left in the tank tonight. Aggies throw another wrench in the race. |
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02-08-23 | St. Joe's +3 v. Loyola-Chicago | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Statistically, this is a fairly evenly matched game, although St. Joe’s seems like the team that is a little better offensively. The clubs are allowing about the same number of points per game, so the question becomes whether Loyola-Chicago has enough of an advantage by playing this contest at home. The Ramblers have won their last two games at home, but that came after three straight home losses and they are 2-8 in the conference while the Hawks are 5-6. When these clubs met earlier this season, St. Joseph’s absolutely blew out Loyola-Chicago, winning by 31. That was just three weeks ago, and not a lot has changed for either team since then. No one should expect a 31-point victory here for the Hawks, but do not be surprised if they win by at least 15. |
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02-08-23 | Wisconsin v. Penn State -4.5 | 79-74 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Penn State is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record and Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. The Badgers are also 1-9 ATS in their last ten games following an ATS loss and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. These teams are in a similar position right now in terms of NCAA tourney seeding, as both are currently among the "Next Four Out" in ESPN's Bracketology prediction. That said, I view the Lions and Badgers as teams on different trajectories. |
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02-08-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -4 | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia 76ers are only 2-2 in their last four games after losing games to the Magic and Knicks within the last week. The Boston Celtics will be ready for this game as they look to build on their first-place lead against a 76ers squad that is only three games behind them. Boston has won three out of their last four games. 76ers are giving up an increase in points. They have squandered 119 or more points in five out of their last seven clashes. This is key as Boston is second in the NBA in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 115.3 points per 100 possessions compared to 113.8 per 100 by Philly. Boston won the first meeting by nine points and I expect another convincing win. Also, Joel Embiid is questionable with a foot injury. |
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02-08-23 | Pacers +7 v. Heat | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither team has been a good betting option over the past few weeks, but I feel much better about Indiana being undervalued coming into this game. The Pacers finally have a chance to be competitive again after getting their best player back on the court. He scored a career-high 43 points against Miami in December, and he has had time to rest coming into this matchup. The Pacers have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games in Miami, and the Heat are dealing with multiple key injuries right now. I expect this game to be a toss-up down the stretch, which provides plenty of value on Indiana as a 7-point underdog. |
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02-08-23 | Spurs +11 v. Raptors | Top | 98-112 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Greg Popovich takes on a Toronto team that handed him the WORST LOSS of his career in a 143-100 ass whooping in San Antonio on November 2 earlier this season. If that’s not enough of a hair-raising beat down, then it doesn’t exist in Pops’ world. Making matters even worse for the Raptors is that they enter this game off a double-revenge affair of their own at Memphis with another payback on deck here against Utah on Friday. With the Spurs 11-9 SU and 12-8 ATS overall in this series, including 4-1 ATS when Toronto is coming off two days of rest. Finally playing on San Antonio head coach Greg Popovich from Game 55 out when he is seeking revenge from a same-season loss of more than 25 points when the Spurs own a sub .690 win percentage 11-0 since 1998. |
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02-08-23 | Creighton v. Seton Hall +3.5 | Top | 75-62 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Pirates have gone 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS, and should add to those figures with a game against pitiful DePaul last weekend. In yet another case of biting the hand that feeds us, we’ll fade Creighton off what we think will be a big win over Villanova. Yes, we know we talked up the Bluejays last Saturday but one of the deciding factors was the game location: Creighton is a great home team but a lousy road team. Not to mention the Jays are just 14-22-1 ATS against foes seeking same-season revenge from a loss of 20-plus points, including 3-8 ATS versus .550 or greater foes. Meanwhile, the Pirates can boast a 5-0 SUATS record at home this season with a sub .700 win percentage. Finally consider that Seton Hall is 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in this series when the Blue Jays fly in with a sub .700 record, including 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS when the Hall boasts a winning record. |
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02-07-23 | TCU v. Kansas State -4 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units I have to look at Kansas State in this spot. The Wildcats are undefeated this season when listed as favorites and will be highly motivated to get revenge for that 14-point defeat at TCU in January. Also, the Wildcats want to avoid a three-game losing streak, so I’m backing them to beat TCU by four or more points. Both teams defend the 3-point line very well, and the Wildcats are a more dangerous 3-point shooting team than the Horned Frogs. This could be a decisive factor, as K-State plays at home, and TCU has gone 1-3 SU and ATS in its previous four showings on the road. The Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played on Tuesday. |
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