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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-22 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oddsmakers were taking their time in releasing a line for this game due to Butler’s status. He is Miami’s leading scorer, so his availability will certainly change the line by multiple points. However, I am going to find myself on Boston either way in this matchup. The Celtics have covered the spread in five straight games and are on a 10-game home winning streak. They have the best offense in the NBA and Tatum is looking like an MVP favorite right now. Miami does not have enough offensive firepower to keep pace, so I am expecting a similar result to Wednesday night. |
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11-30-22 | Raptors -2.5 v. Pelicans | 108-126 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough spot for the Pelicans. While they are home, where they have only lost three times all year, they face a suddenly healthy and surging Raptors team that has back all of its key players. The big boost is Siakam, who is off the injured list. But also, Scottie Barnes and VanVleet, who have spent time on the shelf, are back in the fold. We haven't seen that much of a fully loaded Raptors team, so look for this unit to do some damage. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been bitten by the injury bug with McCollum out and Ingram questionable. So, while New Orleans is a tough place to play, I like the Raptors to cover here. Take the Raptors. |
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11-30-22 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Duke | 72-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ohio State Buckeyes are the real deal. Their only loss of the season occurred against a ranked San Diego State team. They beat Cincinnati 81-53 and defeated #21 Texas Tech 80-73 on Wednesday. Offensively, the Buckeyes are more efficient than Duke, averaging 115.9 points per 100 possessions, ranking them sixth in DI compared to Duke with 112.3 points. The Buckeyes' defense has also been spectacular. Duke will take a lot of threes, averaging 22.4 three-point attempts per game and the Buckeyes are limiting foes to 26% shooting from deep. Duke has been inconsistent in the offensive end. They only scored 56 points in Sunday's loss and have yet to prove themselves offensively. They are shooting a poor 41.7% and are relying heavily on the defense. |
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11-29-22 | Jackson State v. Miami-OH -4.5 | 78-95 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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11-28-22 | Pittsburgh v. Northwestern -7 | 87-58 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitt may have three straight wins coming in but they are facing a Northwestern team that is battle tested in the early going. The Wildcats have beaten Georgetown on the road and took Auburn to the limit before falling a point short in Cancun. While Northwestern does miss the presence of Pete Nance, the fact remains that they have plenty of returning talent, led by Buie and Audige, to keep the Wildcats in games. The major difference we’ve seen between these teams so far is what we’ve seen on the defensive end of the floor. Pitt, while they have been average, has to contend with a Wildcats team that has stifled opposing teams to the tune of 32.1% shooting from the floor, which is second in the nation. Look for Northwestern’s defense, and home-court advantage, to be the difference in this one. |
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11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -7 | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks have struggled on the road and are having to play in back-to-back nights. They have gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record and are winners of just one of their last six games ATS when playing on zero day’s rest. This does not even include the fact that the Mavericks play in Canada, then have to cross the border to take on Milwaukee. This is not a good scenario at all. The Bucks have been incredible at home this season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record on the road and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee has the benefit of an extra day off and are at home. Should be a big night for the Bucks. |
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11-27-22 | Wizards v. Celtics -7.5 | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston has been a team on fire in the early going this season as the transition from Ime Udoka to Joe Mazzulla behind the bench has been seamless. The Celtics continue to pile up gaudy offensive numbers as the addition of Brogdon brought in another scoring option in the backcourt. Washington has been good on the defensive end of the floor but their offensive struggles are hard to overcome. Ranking second-worst in the league in scoring more than a month into the season is a tough sell, especially when you’re facing the league’s top scoring attack. Playing at home with all the weapons that they boast, you have to give the upper hand to the Celtics in this one. |
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11-27-22 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2.5 | 127-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Knicks here bouncing back from a bad home loss against the Blazers, who played without Damian Lillard. The Knicks committed 35 fouls and that was the difference. The Grizzlies are a very physical team, but the Knicks have the size to match them inside, especially with Mitchell Robinson back. I just think this is a good spot for the Knicks, at home, after a bad loss, playing a Grizzlies team that hit the road after a big win over a divisional rival. The Grizzlies are 7-12 against the spread this season and have lost 4 of their last 6 ATS. Take the Knicks here to cover. |
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11-27-22 | Warriors v. Wolves +2 | 137-114 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden State Warriors have been horrible on the road this season, as they are (1-9). I see their struggles continuing in this one, as they will allow the Timberwolves to score enough points to cover this spread. Golden State is currently allowing the 28th most points per game and they have the 21st-highest adjusted defensive rating in the league. |
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11-27-22 | North Carolina +1.5 v. Alabama | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tar Heels had their five-game winning streak snapped by the Pilots in their last game. They will try to bounce back from the loss with a win over the Crimson Tide, which will give them their sixth win in their last seven games. North Carolina is averaging 79.5 points per game. They scored 65 points in their last game, making 44 percent of their field goals and 16.7 percent of their three-pointers. R.J. Davis led the Tar Heels with 15 points and three rebounds. Armando Bacot finished with 13 points and nine rebounds, while Caleb Love added 12 points and three assists. North Carolina has played well defensively, giving up 70.5 points per game. They gave up 70 points in their last game and will need a similar effort if they want to get the win. |
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11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -7 | 112-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah is playing their third game in four nights here and this marks their 14th road game this season against eight home games. The Jazz have sputtered on the defensive end of the floor lately and missing Conley is a big blow as he is a floor general on both ends. Phoenix has dealt with their share of injuries as well though Paul could be on the comeback trail in the near future. The Suns have the edge of playing at home the last couple of games so there is no travel involved for them leading into this contest. Phoenix has quality depth and they have been stellar at home this season: that’s enough to get by a tired, banged-up Utah squad here as they even the season series. |
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11-26-22 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Old Dominion | 50-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates enter with a far better as they have won 5 games and only dropped one this year. The Monarchs are 3-3 this year and are coming off a close loss to Davidson this week. Eastern Carolina is led by Javon Small, who is scoring over 20 points per game. East Carolina has shown that they score big with four of their fives wins coming by double figures. The Monarchs have lost two of their three losses by single digits. The scoring ability of the Pirates will keep them in this game and show that they can win on the road. |
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11-25-22 | Iowa -7.5 v. Clemson | 74-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawkeyes have some of the best offensive stats in college basketball. While they clearly haven't been playing world-beaters so far, what's even more impressive than their record is their execution. Individual performance may vary game-to-game, but a well-coached team that executes well will always put itself in a position to succeed. It's also a game between a great shooting team versus a squad that sucks at defending the three-point line. Iowa is 4-0 ATS this season and Clemson is 1-4. Bet the trend and take Iowa to cover. |
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11-24-22 | Connecticut -3 v. Oregon | 83-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Huskies have won five straight games. They played well offensively in those games, scoring more than 87 points per game while making over 51 percent of their shots. They do a good job finding the open man and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They have also done a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Ducks a lot of easy scoring opportunities. |
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11-23-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Butler | 71-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Volunteers are a tough team and they have been sound defensively in the early going. Tennessee will shoot the ball better than we’ve seen so far and it’s tough to have faith in Butler given the fact that they struggled mightily against Penn State. The Volunteers make life extremely difficult for the Bulldogs and that gets them to the semifinals. |
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11-23-22 | Wolves v. Pacers +2 | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Timberwolves have the 16th-highest adjusted defensive rating, as they will struggle to consistently slow down the Pacers. Indiana is the better offensive team in this matchup, and they have shown that they will continue to contest shots inside the paint. They are holding their opponents to the seventh-lowest field goal shooting percentage, as they don't give up many easy looks around the basket. They will make consistent stops and keep the Timberwolves from scoring enough points to cover. |
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11-23-22 | 76ers +5.5 v. Hornets | 101-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I understand that Philly is without the majority of their superstars, but I still see them being a better team than the Hornets. Charlotte has had a horrible start to the year and if Lamelo Ball can't get back on the court, then I don't see this season turning around. Ball is listed as questionable for this game, but I'm not worried about him if he returns. The Hornets will be extra cautious with him, as the other Charlotte players will have to continue to carry the load. |
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11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns -10 | 105-115 | Push | 0 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phoenix has dominated Los Angeles of late, going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven encounters. Also, each of the Suns’ last six victories over the Lakers has come by ten or more points. The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their previous ten contests versus the Western Conference, while the Lakers haven’t covered in five consecutive outings on the road. |
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11-22-22 | Nets -7.5 v. 76ers | 106-115 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sixers are dealing with a ton of injuries and they are only scoring the 28th most points per game. They will continue to struggle in this one and the Nets will be able to keep this game close. Philadelphia won't play well without their stars, as the 76ers will continue to slide in the wrong direction. |
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11-22-22 | Bowling Green +16.5 v. Notre Dame | 66-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame has been favored by double-digits in each game this season but it has yet to cover a spread, all while facing the 312th strongest schedule according to KenPom. The Irish should also win this game outright, but it will be important to Bowling Green what the final score is in this game. For Notre Dame, this is just another game, but playing the Fighting Irish will motivate the Falcons. Bowling Green likes to get up and down the court quickly, rating 55th in adjusted tempo, while Notre Dame is 333rd. With the fast-paced style of play, the Falcons should be able to limit the effectiveness of Irish big man Nate Laszewski at times. Take Bowling Green to cover. |
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11-21-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans -9.5 | 83-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is virtually unbackable away from home right now. The Warriors had lost all straight of their road games prior to Sunday’s win, but it took a ridiculous performance from Thompson and Curry to get the job done against a bad team. They are now having to play on the back-end of a back-to-back against a New Orleans squad that is expected to have its best player back on the court. This is not a good scheduling spot for Golden State, while New Orleans is rested and motivated coming into this matchup. The Pelicans are also the more balanced team, as they are good on both ends of the court. |
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11-21-22 | Louisville v. Arkansas -15 | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units The Cardinals were favored to win their first three games, but they lost all three games by one point. Their offense has been their biggest problem so far, with the team scoring less than 70 points per game while making less than 45 percent of their shots. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Razorbacks and they’re very careless with the ball, which will be a problem against the Razorbacks, who are averaging more than 12 steals per game. They are facing a defense that held its first three opponents under 60 points and will have a hard time scoring against them, so go with Arkansas to cover the spread. |
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11-20-22 | Warriors v. Rockets +10.5 | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  The Warriors have not shown proper respect to weaker opponents, resulting in losses to the Hornets, Pistons, Magic, and Kings outright as a road favorite. It's hard to love the Rockets, but this will be a game in which their young players will give their best effort. Golden State should win its first road game of the year this season, but they cannot be trusted to cover as a double-digit road favorite. |
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11-20-22 | Hornets v. Wizards -5.5 | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These are two teams heading in opposite directions right now. The Hornets are playing terrible basketball, losers of 1o of their last 11 games, and their defense has been a problem. Also, it seems as if LaMelo Ball is banged up again and is questionable for Sunday's game. The Wizards quietly have a pretty balanced solid team that has the ability to hurt you inside and outside, and has improved their defensive capabilities, ranking 8th in the league in points allowed. Plus, the Hornets are 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning straight up record. |
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11-19-22 | Magic v. Pacers -6 | 113-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic are dealing with injuries as scoring leader Paolo Banchero is likely out again with an ankle injury. Gary Harris made his season debut but likely won’t play big minutes in the second game of a back-to-back. The Pacers have fared well when playing their second game in as many nights, going 2-0 and covered in each win. Furthermore, the Magic continue to stumble, winning just four out of their last ten games. The Pacers have been stellar, logging a victory in seven out of their last nine clashes after beating Houston by eight points on Friday. The Pacers have been as reliable as it gets in the NBA, miraculously covering the spread in nine consecutive games. |
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11-18-22 | Bucks +1.5 v. 76ers | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks won their first matchup with the Sixers this season, a two-point win in Philadelphia in October. The Sixers had Harden in that matchup while the Bucks played without Middleton and Connaughton. They should have Connaughton back for this matchup even while Middleton remains out. Lopez size and length can give Embiid problems and that showed through in the first matchup as Embiid was held to just 15 points. The Sixers have been off since Sunday so expect them to be rusty to start in this one. With Antetokoumpo back to full strength, he provides additional support in the paint against Embiid. And, not that many teams do, but the Sixers don't have anyone that can match up effectively with the Greek Freak. |
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11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's -9.5 | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I see St. John's being the better team on both ends of the court. They are currently scoring the 23rd most points per game and they have the 14th-highest team shooting percentage in the country. Nebraska won't be able to consistently stop them, as they will slowly pull away. Nebraska has had a great start to the season, but they aren't as talented as this St. John's team. |
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11-14-22 | Butler v. Penn State -5.5 | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though the Bulldogs played well defensively in their first game, they were facing an overmatched team and will have a hard time slowing down the hot-shooting Nittany Lions. The Bulldogs also played well offensively in their first game, but they didn’t shoot the ball well, especially from three-point range where they made less than 20 percent of their shots. They also struggled from the free throw line, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. They rebounded the ball well and will get extra scoring opportunities that will help them keep the score close. They were very careless with the ball and they’re facing a defense that has done a good job forcing turnovers, which will lead to easy scoring opportunities for them. With the Nittany Lions holding their first two opponents under 70 points per game, the Bulldogs will have a hard time keeping up, so go with Penn State to cover the spread. |
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11-13-22 | Wolves v. Cavs -5 | 129-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers look to pull out of their funk against an opponent experiencing a more pronounced dip. Minnesota's losing streak equals Cleveland at three games, but the Timberwolves have dropped six of their last seven with Friday's 114-103 defeat against Memphis. Each of the last three Minnesota losses have been by double-digit-point margins, and none of the six in this slide have been any closer than nine points. A 46-33 Grizzlies rebounding advantage turned into a 32-9 edge in second-chance points Friday. Minnesota also yielded a 62-46 disparity for points in the paint. |
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11-13-22 | Thunder +5.5 v. Knicks | 145-135 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City is coming off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season, as eight players scored in double figures in its blowout win over Toronto. The Thunder are going to bring that confidence into this game, and they have already put together a four-game winning streak once this year. They also have one of the most dynamic point guards in the NBA leading the way, so they have multiple ways to win games. New York has not met Vegas expectations so far, covering the spread just twice in its last nine games. The Knicks are also 1-6 in their last seven home games against Oklahoma City. |
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11-12-22 | Rockets +10.5 v. Pelicans | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite their record, the Rockets have played extremely hard for Silas both last year and to start this season. That is indicated in key statistical areas like rebounding and personal fouls, due to their aggression. Houston is 7-5 ATS this season despite sitting at just 2-10. They will be tested here by another young, aggressive team in the Pelicans. The Pelicans have shown their youth this season through their inconsistency. While they sit at 6-6 overall, they are just 5-7 ATS. After starting the season with two double-digit wins, the Pelicans have only one win by over 10 points since that time. The Rockets, meanwhile, have only lost three of their ten losses by more than 10 points. |
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11-12-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. 76ers | 109-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Atlanta is off to its best start (8-4) since the 2016-17 season, Philadelphia sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 5-7 record. The underachieving Sixers were hoping to build on Monday's encouraging 100-88 win over the Phoenix Suns, but instead turned in a dismal effort versus Atlanta. Philadelphia shot 38.6 percent from the field in the loss, including 6 of 30 (20 percent) from 3-point range. The Sixers have struggled to find a rhythm without star James Harden, who missed the last three games and will be out for approximately one month with a right foot tendon strain. |
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11-11-22 | Cavs +2.5 v. Warriors | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is having trouble slowing anyone down on the defensive end, which does not bode well against a Cleveland offense that is in the top 10 in the NBA. The Cavaliers have completely changed their trajectory as a franchise by adding Mitchell, and they have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games. Golden State has been vastly overvalued, covering once in its last six games. I want no part of the Warriors right now, while Cleveland is an undervalued team that I am happy to back. |
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11-11-22 | Michigan State v. Gonzaga -11 | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Zags have the advantage of more continuity than the Spartans in this early-season matchup between two of college basketball's top programs. The Spartans will have difficulty containing the Zags highly potent offense even in this game playing in the unusual confines of the USS Abraham Lincoln. The first half against North Florida gave a good indication of how dangerous Gonzaga's offense can be, as the Bulldogs shot 67% from the field overall. Overall, the Zags had 66 points in the paint and Timme should dominate the interior in this matchup as well. Typically, MSU gradually gets better as the year goes along. This is a tough matchup for them in the early going. |
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11-09-22 | Pelicans v. Bulls +2 | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls are 5-3 with LaVine in the lineup and 4-1 at home with him available. The Pelicans played like a team that just wants to head home in their last game and will have to find a way to ratchet up their intensity in this game as well. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are just 4-6 ATS this year thus far while the Bulls are a more formidable 7-4-1 ATS this season. |
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11-09-22 | Nuggets v. Pacers +5.5 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Denver Nuggets have been mediocre on the road this season where they are only 2-3. The Pacers have been outstanding on their home court where they are 3-0 in their last three clashes including wins against good foes in the Heat and Pelicans within the last week. |
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11-09-22 | Mavs v. Magic +7.5 | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units  Mavericks have not been good against the spread this season. They are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games overall, with the 1 being the push versus Orlando. Orlando, meanwhile, has been excellent against the spread, especially at home, where they are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 home games. They have played opponents tough, but they just haven't been able to convert them to Ws. Also, the Mavericks are 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 meetings in Orlando. |
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11-08-22 | Rider +13.5 v. Providence | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Handicapping a game early in the season is a completely different process than later in the season. Returning experience is much more important in November, as cohesiveness is a huge part of a basketball game. Rider has plenty of that coming into the year, as four of its five starters are back from last year’s team. The Broncs were on fire down the stretch, making a run to the MAAC Tournament semifinals for the first time in a decade. They covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games, including seven of their final nine road games. Providence is replacing all five of its starters from last year, so Rider is the obvious choice as a large underdog. |
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11-07-22 | Nuggets -7.5 v. Spurs | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units The Nuggets have looked strong in their last couple of outings and very good so far this season. I expect them to extend their win streak to three and their series against the Spurs to 2-0. In their matchup on Saturday, the Nuggets were sinking a lot of their shots and giving themselves more scoring opportunities by dominating the boards. I expect the Nuggets to do the same on the road Monday. Hyland had a strong outing coming off the bench, scoring 24 points on the night with 17 points and five 2-pointers coming in the second half to help lift the lead for Denver. Jokic has always been a solid player for the Nuggets and has shown his dominance all over the court showing his ability to pull down boards while attacking the basket and shooting points. Based on the last outing and the dominant defensive and offensive outings, take the Nuggets. |
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11-07-22 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bulls | 97-111 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Toronto plays at a slow, but efficient pace, Chicago tends to play a bit faster. Therefore, it will be interesting to see who controls the tempo of the game. I believe Toronto can cover the spread at the least, and Toronto is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 6-1 in their last seven. Meanwhile, Chicago is 2-6 ATS playing on zero days of rest and 3-8 ATS in their previous eleven contests while playing at home. |
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11-07-22 | George Mason v. Auburn -9.5 | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units George Mason is undoubtedly improved from last year and has upset some high-quality teams in the past but not teams that play at this fast of a pace. This game will be a true test of English's self-professed commitment to utilize his bench to save his starters. Auburn has more depth, much more size and has already shown that they will once again be among the country's top teams in forcing turnovers after giving even teams with pro players fits. Auburn, under Pearl, isn't in a position to rebuild but simply retool. George Mason will be a better team later in the season but it will take them time to get the new pieces to earn English's trust. This one should be a one-sided Auburn affair. |
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11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers have won three straight games by eight or fewer points, outlasting the lowly Houston Rockets twice in the process. Hereof, I’m expecting to see another close battle when the Jazz come to town. Utah just found a way to drop 130 points on the Lakers, and the Jazz should have enough firepower to deal with the Clippers’ D. I’ve mentioned Utah’s selfless approach, so give me the visitors and points. Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and 7-3 ATS in its last ten encounters with the Western Conference. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their previous eight contests overall, though they’ve covered in five straight home games against the Jazz. |
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11-05-22 | Rockets v. Wolves -7.5 | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Minnesota has high expectations this season and need a win. After losing three straight games, I expect the Timberwolves to see red and be ready to dominant the young Rockets. The Timberwolves will be playing for the second night in a row, but they did not have to worry about travel. Houston is 0-6 straight up on the road this season with five of the losses coming by at least eight points or more. I have to back Minnesota here against a Houston team that still has a lot to learn about road life in the NBA, and how to win. |
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11-04-22 | Raptors +3.5 v. Mavs | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors have covered the spread in five of their last six games, including four of their last five road games. They have also won nine of their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents. Doncic is going to put up big numbers, but Toronto’s balance and defense will be too much to handle in the end. |
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11-02-22 | Pelicans -3 v. Lakers | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Anthony Davis sits out Wednesday’s game, the Pelicans will dominate in the paint. New Orleans ranks seventh in the league in offensive rebounds (12.5 per 100 possessions) and third in assists (27.8), so I’m expecting the Pelicans to control the game and cover a 3.5-point spread. Without Davis, the Lakers’ frontcourt is thin and will struggle to contain Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas. If Davis suits up, we should see a tight battle for all 48 minutes. Last season, the Pels went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Lakers. New Orleans is 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this time around, and the Pelicans have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their previous six showings as favorites away from home. |
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10-31-22 | Rockets +9.5 v. Clippers | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Houston Rockets vs LA Clippers. The NBA pick for this game is the LA Clippers. The Rockets struggled to start the season 1-5 but are 4-2 ATS. Expect the trend to spill over in this contest as they fall to the Clippers but will cover the nut in the process. LA has failed to cover the number in each of its last four. LA has a strong defense which is sixth in points allowed, but the Clippers are next to last or 29th in scoring at 102.6 points per game. |
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10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | 118-111 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units 76ers haven't been as impressive to start this season. They are now (3-4), as they have continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the 19th-highest adjusted defensive rating in the NBA. They are also allowing their opponents to shoot 46.4% from the floor, which is the 14th-highest percentage allowed. The Wizards are currently shooting better than anyone in the league, as they have the highest shooting percentage from the floor. |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons +7.5 | 114-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a good scheduling spot for Detroit, as it has had several days off and is playing at home. Golden State is on the backend of a road back-to-back, making this a difficult situation for the Warriors to put together a complete performance. Some of their stars are starting to age, which makes the second game of a back-to-back even tougher. They have not been good enough defensively to be worth wagering on as a large favorite in this spot. |
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10-26-22 | Magic v. Cavs -8.5 | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando is trying to cobble together a team that is playing a lot of young guys in an effort to find a cohesive group to build around going forward but it’s safe to say that they aren’t expecting to contend. Cleveland has that young nucleus and made the big move to acquire Mitchell from Utah before the season started to give them a premiere scoring option in crunch time. The Cavaliers have a good group of pieces around him and will only get better once Garland is back to full speed after his eye injury. Cleveland has won two straight and seeing how Orlando has yet to get in the win column this season, you have to fade them accordingly. |
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10-21-22 | Suns -5 v. Blazers | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won six of their last seven contests against the Trail Blazers and are 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 meetings with Portland. The Trail Blazers have only covered twice in their last nine showings at Moda Center. |
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10-21-22 | Raptors +2.5 v. Nets | 105-109 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This contest will be interesting as the Nets looked lackadaisical for long stretches of the game against the Pelicans. Sure, New Orleans got a boost from the return of Zion Williamson but the fact remains that the Nets were hammered right out of the gate. Toronto had their struggles against a Cleveland squad that added Donovan Mitchell in an offseason trade but came up with the clutch plays down the stretch to earn the victory. The Nets still have Durant and Irving to lead the way though their showing against the Pelicans is cause for concern. Given what we saw from Brooklyn on both ends of the floor, it’s tough to like them here, even at home. Take the points and the Raptors here as they claw out a win on the road. |
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10-21-22 | Pistons v. Knicks -7 | 106-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks lost their opener, but there is a lot to like there. They came back, on the road, and sent it to overtime against a good team. Now, they play their home opener and I would be shocked if they did not win it in front of a pumped up home crowd at Madison Square Garden. Detroit is going to be a team to be reckoned with, this season, with loads of top young talent. But this scene at MSG will be a lot to handle for a young team not used to winning on the road. Barrett was awful in game 1 and I expect a bounce back, and look for Brunson to put on a show in his home opener in front of the new fans. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Warriors | 88-107 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have been "Road Warriors" in the postseason. Boston is 8-2 away from home, including three wins at Miami in the Eastern Conference finals and a Game 6 victory at defending-champion Milwaukee that kept the Celtics alive in the conference semifinals. The trend continued with the stellar fourth-quarter rally. While Jaylen Brown (24 points) and Derrick White (21 points, five 3-pointers) combined with Horford for 71 points, star Jayson Tatum was just 3-of-17 shooting for 12 points. He did deliver 13 assists, the most in his career. |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Warriors | 96-110 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At home, the Warriors have been unbeatable during the playoffs. They won three home games in a row by an average of 13.3 points over the Denver Nuggets in Round 1 and crushed the Grizzlies 142-112 in San Francisco in Game 3 of this series as the visitors watched Morant go down with a knee injury. But Memphis, as it has done all season, has responded well to seeing its star in street clothes on the sidelines. The Grizzlies were without Morant for 25 games in the regular season, winning 20 of them. And in Game 4 they led for almost 46 of the 48 minutes despite shooting poorly (41.7 percent overall, 25.7 percent on 3-pointers) but the Warriors escaped with a 101-98 decision. Then in Game 5, the Grizzlies' shots fell at a rate of 47.5 percent, including 43.9 percent on 3-point shots, and they buried the Warriors early. Memphis led by 10 after the first, 27 after the second, and 52 points after the third quarter. The lead topped out at 55. Consider that the Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Monday's game on the defending NBA champions' home floor is now essentially a must-win for the Celtics, who will host Game 5 on Wednesday night. While no loss is easy to swallow, especially in the playoffs, Boston mounted a late-game surge that could give it some momentum heading into Game 4. After trailing by 13 with 9:48 left to play in the fourth quarter, the Celtics stormed all the way back and eventually went ahead 100-99 after a pair of free throws from Jaylen Brown. Following buckets from Antetokounmpo and Holiday that put the Bucks up by three, Boston's Marcus Smart sank the first of two free throws before intentionally missing the second. Robert Williams and Al Horford each missed put back layups. Consider that the Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings including 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston can now take its first advantage of the series and will have the chance to do so with its best defender returning to the lineup. Marcus Smart, the NBA Defensive Player of the Year, is expected to be back for Game 3. Smart was out Tuesday with a thigh contusion after finishing with 10 points and six assists in a 101-89 Game 1 loss. Derrick White started for Smart in Game 2 but was held scoreless through 28 minutes. Despite the 6-foot-4 guard's scoring woes, the Celtics were 22 points better than the Bucks when White was on the floor. While Boston is looking to ride its momentum, the Bucks are looking to find the cracks in a defense that held them to their season low in points during Game 2. Milwaukee shot just 16.7 percent from 3-point range (3 of 18) and committed 16 turnovers, which translated to 24 Boston points. Giannis Antetokounmpo got off to a slow start with just five points on 2-of-12 shooting in the first half. Antetokounmpo said that the level of physicality the Celtics have brought in the series is something he is used to, but it has made it harder to distribute. |
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04-26-22 | Pelicans +7 v. Suns | 97-112 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After securing the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, the Phoenix Suns are headed home in an unexpected situation with the No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans in their first-round playoff series: tied 2-2 entering Game 5. The best-of-seven series has turned into a best-of-three series starting tonight in Phoenix. The Pelicans tied the series with a 118-103 home victory against the Suns on Sunday night. New Orleans held star guard Chris Paul to four points on 2-of-8 shooting. He had 11 assists, but didn't attempt a free throw. Paul was without his backcourt mate, All-Star Devin Booker, who strained his right hamstring in Game 2 and averaged 26.8 points per game on the regular season. He is not expected to return this series. Additionally, consider that the Pelicans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games. |
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04-23-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Nets | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Every time Brooklyn Nets star Kevin Durant changed direction on the court on Wednesday, he encountered a Boston Celtics defender closely monitoring his every move. It resulted in Durant missing all 10 of his field-goal attempts in the second half of Game 2, while Boston built a 2-0 series lead following a 114-107 victory. The Celtics look to produce a similar defensive showing tonight when the first-round series reconvenes for Game 3 at Brooklyn. The Celtics won the series opener 115-114 on Jayson Tatum's buzzer-beater, held Durant to 9-of-24 shooting in that one and forced him into six turnovers. On Wednesday, Boston erased a 17-point deficit and held Durant to 4-of-17 shooting with another six turnovers. In both games, the Celtics were able to harass Durant into a bad half. In Game 1, they held him to 2 of 12 in the first half, while on Wednesday, Durant was 0 of 10 after halftime and wound up with his fourth-lowest field goal percentage (23.5) in his 153 postseason games. Consider that the Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. |
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04-19-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After a dominant Game 1 performance, the Eastern Conference's top-seeded Miami Heat will look to maintain their home-court advantage and take a 2-0 lead today in their first-round playoff series against the visiting Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta earned its way into the playoffs despite finishing the regular season ninth in the East, winning play-in games against Charlotte and Cleveland. The Hawks could not parlay that momentum into a Game 1 upset, however, with the Heat winning a never-in-doubt 115-91 decision on Sunday. Miami led almost the entire way and grew its advantage to as many as 32 points behind a game-high 27 points from Duncan Robinson, who hit 8 of 9 attempts from 3-point range off the bench. The Heat finished the regular season with the NBA's fourth-best scoring defense at 105.6 points allowed per game. On Sunday, Miami held Atlanta to 38.7 percent shooting and forced 18 turnovers. |
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04-16-22 | Nuggets +6.5 v. Warriors | 107-123 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Third-seeded Golden State (53-29) could be in trouble against the sixth-seeded Nuggets (48-34), who won three of the four regular-season meetings. Denver features four-time All-Star Nikola Jokic, who has an excellent chance to repeat as league MVP after becoming the first player in NBA history to top 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds and 500 assists in a single season. Jokic averaged 27.1 points, 13.8 rebounds and 7.9 assists this season despite not having star guard Jamal Murray (ACL) for all of the season and Michael Porter Jr. (back) for most of it. Consider that the Warriors are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite. |
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04-15-22 | Hawks v. Cavs +2.5 | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If this game were in Atlanta or even the Orlando bubble, I'd take the Hawks without a doubt. However, they were 16-25 on the road and haven't beaten a Top 10 team in either conference on the road since Jan. 23 (0-9). I'd still probably like Atlanta tonight ... but the Cavs are simply a MUCH better team, especially defensively, with Jarrett Allen and all signs point to the All-Star center returning from injury. (Note: I would take Hawks ML if for some reason Allen doesn't play.) Bogdan Bogdanovic (left ankle sprain) will be a game-time decision for the Hawks. I'm sure he plays but if even limited a little that's another edge for Cleveland, which has covered seven of its past nine as a home dog. Atlanta is 6-15 ATS in its past 21 away. |
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04-10-22 | Thunder +11.5 v. Clippers | 88-138 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The teams have split their first two meetings, with the Clippers winning 99-94 on Nov. 1 in Los Angeles and the Thunder winning 104-103 on Dec. 18 in Oklahoma City. No one has benefitted from the Thunder's late-season roster makeover as much as Jaylen Hoard, who was signed to a 10-day contract at the start of the month and has started four of Oklahoma City's five games since. In his first 33 NBA games over the last three seasons before this most recent stretch, Hoard averaged 4.7 points and 1.9 rebounds. But after spending the majority of the season with the Oklahoma City's G League team, Hoard has averaged 17.8 points and 13.4 rebounds since joining the Thunder. Consider that the Thunder are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up loss and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. |
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04-10-22 | Spurs +9.5 v. Mavs | 120-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs played without four starters -- Dejounte Murray (upper respiratory illness), Devin Vassell (left heel soreness), Keldon Johnson (right knee soreness) and Jakob Poeltl (lower back soreness). San Antonio still found a way to cut a 17-point Golden State third-quarter lead to two points in the final seconds before succumbing. San Antonio has shown that it can compete with any team, even with a sometimes rag-tag lineup. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will use the final game to keep his players sharp. Consider that the Spurs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. |
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04-10-22 | Kings v. Suns -14.5 | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns (64-17), who have clinched the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs, will be playing for the last time before hosting the eighth seed following the play-in tournament. Meanwhile, the Kings (29-52) will be wrapping up their season on the second night of a back-to-back on the road. They dropped a 117-98 decision to the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. Phoenix enters the finale having already won two more games than any previous team in franchise history. The 1992-93 and 2004-05 Suns shared the old mark with 62-20 seasons. With the exception of backup guard Cameron Payne (knee), the Suns enter the finale in great health, which Chris Paul said is crucial going forward. Consider that the Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. |
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04-10-22 | Heat v. Magic +10.5 | 111-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando (21-60) finishes at the bottom of the East, although the Magic showed improvement late in the campaign under first-year head coach Jamahl Mosley. Orlando is 8-13 since the All-Star break. The majority of NBA teams dealt with injuries and COVID-19 issues this season, but the Magic were hit particularly hard. On Dec. 17, Miami won 115-105 in Orlando as the Magic signed four players to 10-day contracts that day after losing five players to health and safety protocols. Overall, the Magic had 25 different starting lineups in 81 games. The most promising group -- big men Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba, guard Cole Anthony and rookies Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs -- made 34 starts with Orlando going 13-21 (.382) in those games. Consider that the Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings. |
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04-10-22 | Pistons v. 76ers -12 | 106-118 | Push | 0 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When the Philadelphia 76ers host the Detroit Pistons in the regular-season finale for both today, it will be a contest between one team with incentive to win, and another with a slight incentive to lose. The 76ers enter with a chance to improve their playoff seeding in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia enters at 50-31, tied with Boston for the third-best record in the East, but Boston holds the tiebreaker for the No. 3 seed owing to a better record within the Atlantic Division. But while Boston has to play its regular-season finale at Memphis, the second-best team in the Western Conference, Philadelphia gets to host Detroit (23-58), the second-worst team in the East. Opportunity could definitely be knocking for the 76ers to move up into the No. 3 spot in the East playoffs, which would mean a first-round matchup against slumping Chicago instead of red-hot Toronto. |
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04-09-22 | Warriors v. Spurs +6.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs head back to San Antonio for their final home game of the season after a 127-121 loss at Minnesota on Thursday that snapped their five-game road winning streak. Despite the loss, San Antonio (34-46) is still in the running for the ninth spot and a home game in the play-in tourney, but the Spurs will have to win their final two games and have New Orleans lose both of its final two. The Spurs own the tiebreaker with the Pelicans via a 3-1 edge in head-to-head play. Consider that the Warriors are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. |
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04-09-22 | Pacers +14.5 v. 76ers | 120-133 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In Tuesday's matchup with the Sixers, Malcolm Brogdon sat (rest) and Goga Bitadze was sidelined with a foot injury. Chris Duarte last played on March 15, shut down for the season due to a toe injury. Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, additions in a February trade from the Sacramento Kings for Domantas Sabonis, have emerged as two of Indiana's primary offensive weapons at 17.4 and 18.3 points, respectively, per game. Haliburton scored 21 and Hield had 25 points in Tuesday's loss to the Sixers. Consider that the Pacers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. |
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04-08-22 | Hawks v. Heat +1.5 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Miami Heat can clinch the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference on tonight when they host the Atlanta Hawks. Miami (52-28) enters its 2021-22 regular-season home finale fresh off its highest-scoring performance of the season in a 144-115 rout of the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday. Highlighting the blowout win -- the Heat's fifth straight victory -- was Tyler Herro scoring a career-high 35 points off the bench. Herro paced four Miami scorers who had at least 21 points, a quartet that also comprised Jimmy Butler with 27, Bam Adebayo with 22 and Duncan Robinson with 21 off the bench (all on 3-pointers). In addition, the Hawks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. |
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04-08-22 | Cavs v. Nets -7 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets entered Thursday with a 1 1/2-game lead over the Hornets, who hosted the Orlando Magic - the same team that beat the Cavaliers on Tuesday as Cleveland continued to falter without Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley. The Cavaliers are 6-10 since Allen fractured his finger in a 104-96 win over the Toronto Raptors on March 6. Mobley has missed the past five games with an ankle injury, and Cleveland's only win during that stretch was Saturday's 119-101 victory at New York. The Cavs lost 120-115 in Orlando on Tuesday when they allowed 16 3-pointers and the Magic to shoot 50.5 percent from the field. Consider that the Cavaliers are 19-51-2 ATS in their last 72 games following a ATS loss. |
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04-08-22 | Knicks +1.5 v. Wizards | 114-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington moved to as many as seven games over .500 (at 10-3 on Nov. 15) before enduring a gradual descent. The Wizards have won back-to-back games just three times since Jan. 1 and fell under the break-even mark for good with a 116-87 loss to the Boston Celtics on Jan. 23. The loss Wednesday to the Hawks -- who are in ninth place in the Eastern Conference -- was the 24th in the past 36 games for the Wizards, who are using the final week of the season to experiment with a tall lineup. Consider that the Knicks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. |
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04-05-22 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies are on an insane heater right now. They have won seven straight, going 6-1 ATS during that stretch. They rested just about all of their key players in their last game against the Suns, and still won by eight points. Meanwhile, the Jazz have lost six of their last seven games and went 0-7 ATS during that stretch. I like the Grizzlies to keep this close, if not win outright. |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke -4 | 81-77 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Duke and Carolina take the court in the Superdome tonight following the first national semifinal between Villanova and Kansas. This is the first time the rivals have met in the Final Four. It's the 258th game between the college basketball behemoths. Krzyzewski has five national titles on his resume. To get a sixth, the Blue Devils need to solve what ailed them in the 13-point home loss on March 5. However, consider that the Tar Heels are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games as an underdog. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas -4 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Wildcats will be missing a key component when the squads battle on Saturday in New Orleans for a spot in the national championship game. Villanova standout Justin Moore tore his right Achilles in the final minute of the Wildcats' 50-44 win over Houston in the Elite Eight on March 26. Moore underwent surgery, and the Wildcats are dissecting how to best fill his minutes and responsibilities. Backup Caleb Daniels is expected to slide into the starting lineup for the second-seeded Wildcats (30-7). Kansas has received stunningly good play in the NCAA Tournament from Remy Martin. Not once did Martin reach the 20-point mark in the regular season, but he has done so twice during March Madness and was named Most Outstanding Player of the Midwest Region after Kansas routed Miami 76-50 in the Elite Eight. Consider that the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. |
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04-01-22 | Raptors v. Magic +11.5 | 102-89 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This feels a bit like a trap game for Toronto, which comes off a four-game homestand that featured three games against playoff teams. It's a weird one-game road trip to Orlando and then back to Toronto for four games, including a potential playoff preview vs. Miami on Sunday. It wouldn't stun me if the Raptors rested a starter tonight, either. I'm not expecting the Magic to win or anything, but they should be able to stay within 10. Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its past six vs. teams with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in its past eight as a dog. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's +8.5 v. North Carolina | 49-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units After Holloway guided tiny Saint Peter's to a championship in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, he became a shooting star in the coaching ranks as the 15th-seeded Peacocks felled Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue in the NCAA Tournament. He is widely expected to be offered the vacant coaching job at his alma mater, Seton Hall, but will not address what he calls "rumors." Saint Peter's defeated Purdue 67-64 Friday in the Sweet 16, using its signature relentless defense to bottle up NBA prospect Jaden Ivey, who finished with just nine points on 4-of-12 shooting with six turnovers. Purdue was rated the most efficient offense in the country by KenPom.com entering the game. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Kansas (31-6) hounded fourth-seeded Providence into 33.8 percent shooting en route to Friday's 66-61 semifinal victory, including a 4-for-23 effort from 3-point range. Although the Jayhawks shot just 39.3 percent from the floor, they prevailed behind disciplined defense and were plus-five in the rebounding column. Offensively, resurgent point guard Remy Martin had a game-high 23 points to lead the Jayhawks in scoring for the third time in as many NCAA Tournament games while Jalen Wilson contributed 16 points and 11 rebounds. Ochai Agbaji, a Naismith Player of the Year finalist, had five points on 2-for-8 shooting, by far his lowest output of the tournament, but Jayhawks coach Bill Self indicated the team isn't panicking. Agbaji had four blocks, four boards and two steals while helping to steady the defense. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Arkansas has won 18 of its last 21 games and has been successful by pushing the pace, helping seven of its last nine get Over the total. The Razorbacks covered the spread in 21 games and also went Over the total in 21 games this season. They also have covered their last five games as an underdog. Duke likes to play fast as well and has gone Over the number in eight of its last nine. I’m betting that this will be the last game of Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski's amazing career, but I don't like the price on the Arkansas money line so I just took the points with the Razorbacks (+4). In addition playing on any NCAA tournament team in the Elite 8 round if they upset a #1 seed as an underdog in the Sweet 16 round is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1996. |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina +2.5 v. UCLA | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Tar Heels broke out and won their final five regular-season games, including their long-discussed upset of Duke in Mike Krzyzewski's last home game before retirement. Still, perhaps because ACC basketball had a down year by its standards, North Carolina flew under the radar and entered the NCAA Tournament as an No. 8 seed. First-year Carolina coach Hubert Davis has a theory. North Carolina owns a 10-3 all-time record against UCLA, including the past five meetings. |
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03-25-22 | Providence v. Kansas -7.5 | 61-66 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating; 5 Units Kansas (30-6) gets fourth-seeded Providence (27-5), which has won 16 games by single digits, including 11 by five or fewer points. Kansas ultimately pulled away from ninth-seeded Creighton, 79-72, to reach the 32nd Sweet 16 in program history. Credit the latest resurgent performance by point guard Remy Martin. A transfer from Arizona State, Martin worked through knee soreness and inconsistency during the regular season before sparkling down the stretch. He scored 20 points against Creighton after a 15-point effort in the Jayhawks' tournament-opening rout of Texas Southern, the first two times Martin led the team in scoring this season. |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's +12.5 v. Purdue | 67-64 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units No matter where you are on the court, beware: KC Ndefo is coming to block your shot. The Saint Peter's forward tallied six blocks in the No. 15 seed's second-round NCAA Tournament win over Murray State. The highlight came in the second half, when he chased down Trae Hannibal and swatted away his fast-break dunk attempt. Ndefo embodies the defensive intensity Saint Peter's (21-11) has used to pull off two stunners and advance in the East Region to the Sweet 16, where they'll play No. 3 seed Purdue Friday in Philadelphia, Pa. |
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03-24-22 | Houston +1.5 v. Arizona | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Cougars (31-5), perhaps still a little peeved about being given just a 5 seed by the NCAA selection committee, look to take their next step to a repeat spot in the Final Four. Houston did almost everything correctly Sunday in a 68-53 win over fourth-seeded Illinois as Taze Moore scored 21, Jamal Shead 18, and Kyler Edwards 15 points. Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson was so pumped up after the win that he pulled off his shirt during the team's locker room celebration. Houston has won five straight games and 11 of its past 12, advancing to the Sweet 16 for the third straight season. Arizona is making its first Sweet 16 appearance in six years. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke +1.5 | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units After allowing an average of 57.5 points in its two NCAA wins, Texas Tech will need another stellar showing against Duke, which defeated Cal State Fullerton and Michigan State to reach this stage. Freshman star Paolo Banchero had 19 points and seven rebounds in the win over Michigan State. Mark Williams added 15 points, eight rebounds and five blocked shots. illiams, who has 104 blocks on the season, is the first player in Duke history to have five rejections in back-to-back NCAA tourney games. He also had five against Cal State Fullerton. The Blue Devils average 80.3 points per game on the season. Duke won the lone previous meeting, 69-58 on Dec. 20, 2018, at New York's Madison Square Garden. |
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03-24-22 | Pacers +11.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana lost in the final seconds at home on Wednesday vs. Sacramento, which crushed me betting-wise, and would have no shot normally in Memphis ... but the Grizzlies are semi-punting with Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke all taking a seat in the second of a B2B for the Grizz as well. Probably a trap game anyways for Memphis off the big win over Brooklyn. The Pacers will have Malcolm Brogdon tonight after he sat Wednesday. UPDATE: Indiana is now sitting guys left and right so I'd just steer clear of this game completely at this point. |
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03-24-22 | Wizards +9 v. Bucks | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wizards stink, but we'll take nearly two TDs with the Bucks ruling out both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. Sounds like a punt game for Milwaukee -- which probably still wins by about 10. This spread will drop. |
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03-24-22 | Michigan +5.5 v. Villanova | 55-63 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Michigan was in dire straits toward the end of the Big Ten campaign, losing four of its final eight regular-season games and then bowing out to Indiana in the first round of the conference tournament. The Wolverines also had a stretch of games that were affected by COVID-19, played multiple games without Dickinson, and were without suspended coach Juwan Howard for five contests. But when it has counted the most, Michigan has come together. |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Top-seeded Gonzaga was tested more than expected in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament while reaching the Sweet 16 for the seventh straight time. Now the Bulldogs will attempt to play two strong halves when they face fourth-seeded Arkansas on Thursday night in the West Regional semifinals at San Francisco. The Razorbacks (27-8) will run a slew of athletic players against the Bulldogs (28-3) as they attempt to reach the Elite Eight for the second straight season. Arkansas lost to eventual national champion Baylor last season. |
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03-23-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +5.5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hawks are just 4-9 vs. the points this season when unrested and a rather shocking 12-22 vs. the number in the next game after a SU victory. Detroit 12-6-1 vs. the points in the last 19 games at Little Caesars Arena and the Pistons have been playing a bit better defense than the Hawks over the past 15 games during which period Dwane Casey’s Mo-Town side is 13-1-1 against the point spread. |
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03-23-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Middle Tennessee -5 | 96-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Blue Raiders are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite, 23-6-2 ATS in their last 31 games overall, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win, and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win. |
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03-20-22 | TCU +9.5 v. Arizona | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lloyd also knew before Friday that despite losses in 7 of 11 entering the Dance, TCU could rise to the occasion, having knocked off both Kansas and Texas Tech late in the season, and that Jamie Dixon's troops will crash the offensive glass after ranking ninth in offensive rebounds, and controlling the boards overall by a 39-26 count against the Hall. While this is recently uncharted territory for the Frogs, who haven't reached the second round since 1987 in Jim Killlingsworth's final year before retiring, they have covered 12 of their last 16 as a dog, and can likely stay within earshot as long as they produce an effort something like Friday when hitting better than 50% from the floor, and G Mike Miles looking in charge of proceedings with 21 points, This might not be easy for the Cats! |
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03-20-22 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units While consensus opinion seems to be that the Canes are in trouble against Auburn, we remind again how the ACC has proven Joe Lunardi and many in the pundit class very wrong by flourishing thus far in the Dance (6-1 SU after North Carolina’s win over Baylor on Sunday), and there is still evidence that the Tigers peaked in late January when briefly moving to the top of the polls, with several flat efforts since and unable to shut the door on A-Sun Jax State until the final minutes on Friday. While they ooh and ahh on Sports Center about frosh star Jabari Smith’s slam-dunk in the final minutes (plus his 20 points vs. the Gamecocks), keep in mind that Auburn is still just 6-4 SU across its last ten games, and not just failing to cover several of those but losing outright. |
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03-20-22 | Troy State v. Abilene Christian -4.5 | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating:Â 2 Units Consider that the Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. While the Wildcats are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. |
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03-20-22 | Pelicans v. Hawks -3.5 | 117-112 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is 7-1 SU and against the points last 8 against New Orleans after taking a 102-99 SU win at the Smoothie King Arena on Oct. 27, although failed to cover that one as 5-point favorites. Consider that the Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. While the Hawks are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games. |
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03-20-22 | Iowa State v. Wisconsin -4 | 54-49 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units As the Big Ten’s answer to Providence, the Badgers excelled in the close call, now 16-3 SU in games decided by seven points or fewer after finally subduing a scrappy Colgate on Friday, and star G Johnny Davis apparently beyond his late-season ankle injury with 25 points. This is not your typical Wisconsin, however, as Greg Gard has dialed up the pace to take advantage of his flamethrowers like Davis (19.8 ppg), G Brad Davison (14.1 ppg), and 6-9 Tyler Wahl (11.5 ppg), and the Badgers do not boast of great depth, which might be one of the reasons they have lacked the KO power of the past. Oddsmakers, however, are not asking Wiscy to clear much of a hurdle here, and the Cyclones have hardly looked like Gonzaga in recent weeks as the offense continues to lurch. Davis likely proves the difference as he often has this season as the Badgers eventually gain control. Note the last nine ISU losses have featured margins all greater than the mostly 5-point spreads we are seeing for this one in Milwaukee. |
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03-20-22 | Houston v. Illinois +4 | 68-53 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Illinois gets another life and now it's Houston that has to deal with NBA-bound 7-1 Kofi Cockburn, who commands a lot of attention on the blocks and the sort of beastly presence that the Cougs rarely had to deal with this season in the American. Kelvin Sampson overcame pre-New Year's injuries to key Gs Marcus Sasser (who was the leading scorer at 19 ppg when going down) & Tramon Mark with a lineup that still retained plenty of balance and featured Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards (14 ppg) as a new go-to threat. The Illini, however, can accelerate tempo with Gs Alphonso Plummer (14.8 p[pg; his triples ignited what was a stagnant offense on Friday vs. the Mocs) & Trent Frazier (12 ppg), while livewire Andre Curbelo provides the spark. And while the Illini haven't covered a lot of games lately (2-7 last nine vs. spread), they haven't been a dog in over a month, either, and only lost 2 of those 9 outright. |
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03-20-22 | NC-Wilmington v. VMI +2 | 93-78 | Loss | -111 | 1 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. While the Keydets are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games overall, 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, and 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. |
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03-19-22 | Northern Iowa +6 v. BYU | 71-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Once again the Panthers’ big three of Gs A.J. Green (21 points) & Trae Berhow (18 points) plus F Noah Carter (19 points0 led a three-pronged attack vs. the Billikens, with Green continuing a sensational late-season run by scoring 20 or more points in seven of the past nine UNI games. UNI has also covered 7 of its last 9 as a dog, and prior to the win over the Beach, BYU had dropped 5 of its previous 6 vs. the line at the Marriott Center. And, as noted earlier, the Cougs are well off of their offensive numbers from recent years. |
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03-19-22 | Rice v. Ohio -5.5 | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Owls are 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog, and 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. While the Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. |
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03-19-22 | St. Mary's +3 v. UCLA | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Gaels were a lot more impressive in their first round victory over Indiana than UCLA was in their come from behind win over Akron. The Gaels were just one of three teams to beat the #1 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs this season. The Gaels are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. St. Mary's shot over 51 percent from the field and over 47 percent from three-point range in their first round win. The Bruins scored just 57 point on 35.2 percent shooting against Akron. They will need to be a lot better if they want to survive the next round. |
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03-19-22 | Richmond +3 v. Providence | 51-79 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Despite Providence's gaudy record, the quality of the Friars' Big East regular-season title has been questioned for good reason. The Friars had three games canceled because of a COVID pause in January and won the title despite playing three fewer conference games than a Villanova team that swept them during the regular season. All three of those un played games would have been against NCAA Tournament teams. Then again, one could say the Friars again are fortunate to avoid a potentially tougher opponent after Richmond led for the last 14 minutes in its 67-63 upset Thursday of fifth-seeded Iowa (26-10), which won the Big Ten tournament on Sunday. Richmond earned its way into the NCAA Tournament by winning the Atlantic-10 tournament and an automatic bid before capturing its first NCAA victory since the 2010-11 team beat Vanderbilt and Morehead State to reach the Sweet 16. |
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