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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-02-17 | Hornets v. Thunder -4.5 | 113-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Charlotte won the first meeting with OKC this season, notching a 123-112 decision in Charlotte on Jan. 4. The victory came despite Hornet PG Kemba Walker making just 5 of 13 shots and being outscored by Thunder counterpart Russell Westbrook 33-20 (Westbrook added 15 rebounds and 8 assists). Charlotte G Nicolas Batum (28 pts.) and C Frank Kaminsky (17 pts., 6 rebs. off the bench) helped turn the tide that night. This game is in OKC, however, where the Thunder are 21-9 as a favorite and where they have won and covered 8 straight against the Hornets. |
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04-02-17 | Celtics -6.5 v. Knicks | 110-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston likely to remember the last meeting between these two, as New York went into the TD Garden and scored a convincing 117-106 victory behind Knick G Derrick Rose (30 points). The part the Celtics might remember most clearly is the music blasting from the N.Y. locker room after that game. HC Brad Stevens won’t let Boston forget that or the pathetic job the Celtics did on the boards that night, allowing the Knicks to build a 57-33 rebounding edge. The Celtics are 23-15 vs. the points on the road and fighting for the best record in the Eastern Conference. |
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04-01-17 | Suns v. Blazers -11 | 117-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Suns waived the white flag in early March and shut down some of their veteran assets, Portland has marched into the final playoff spot by winning 11 of 14 games last month. That surge corresponds roughly with the acquisition of C Jusuf Nurkic from Denver. The 7-0, 280 Nurkic has given the Blazers a different look inside, scoring 14 ppg and grabbing 10 rpg in his 18 games with Portland. Phoenix has been content to lose, build up more lottery balls, and let young G Devin Booker see just how much he can score when given the green light (the answer is 70 pts. on 40 shots vs. Boston 8 days ago). |
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04-01-17 | Oregon +5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 105 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The normal North Carolina size edge, which Williams has exploited all season for a nation’s-best +13 rebound margin, and resultant dominance on the offensive glass, might come harder this weekend for the Heels. That’s because, against the Ducks, Williams is likely reluctant to go with his normal bigs of 6-10 Kennedy Meeks and 6-9 Isaiah Hicks at the same time, as the defensive match ups caused by Oregon’s lineup figure to force Roy’s hand. That’s because Williams could get away with committing Hicks or Meeks to Oregon’s mobile 6-9 pivot Jordan Bell, but neither would be a good fit against the Ducks’ 6-7 wing Dillon Brooks, their most likely other defensive assignment. Expect, then, to see Williams use a lot more of F Luke Maye, which might not be an altogether bad thing after Maye excelled (16.5 ppg) in last weekend’s regionals at Memphis, including hitting the game-winning jump shot in the last second vs. Kentucky. But Maye’s presence will likely be at the expense of either Meeks or Hicks (and also perhaps of 6-10 frosh Tony Bradley, who has played key minutes for UNC in the Dance), which would correspondingly limit some of the trademark dominance the Heels have displayed on the boards all season...especially on the offensive glass. There is also going to be plenty of pressure on Heel PG Joel Berry to hit some outside shots (especially with 6-8 wing Justin Jackson misfiring repeatedly beyond the arc last weekend, when he hit just 3 of 13 triples in Memphis) and to limit his TOs, both of which have been recurring issues in the Dance. |
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04-01-17 | Kings +12 v. Wolves | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sacramento hasn’t won many games since trading DeMarcus Cousins, but the Kings have been competitive lately, logging a 6-4-2 spread mark in their last 12 through their March 26 miracle rally to beat the Clippers. The Kings remarkably erased an 18-point, 4th-Q lead vs. L.A. Sunday. Teams leading by 18 in the final Q this season were 359-0 prior to Sacto’s victory. Meanwhile, Minnesota is proving to be one of the bigger busts in the league. After being touted as a breakthrough team with the young Timberwolf talent being combined with vet HC Tom Thibodeau, Minny was the darling of the preseason prognosticators. It hasn’t worked out that way. Twolves are struggling with a 3-7 SU and spread run in their last 10. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina +6.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 102 h 10 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units While South Carolina's joyride might be coming to an end vs. tall, deep, and experienced Gonzaga, the point spread of 6½ seems enticing enough to shade the dog. The Zags have four DD scorers, with their top seven players logging 17 or more minutes per game. Rotating seven-footers Przemek Karnowski (12.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Zach Collins (9.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg) represent inside size rarely encountered TY by USC. But Gonzaga really only pulled away from upstart Xavier in the Elite Eight when the Zags finally started hitting their treys (12 of 24 vs. the Musketeers), and Chris Mack’s Big East overachievers ran out of gas. Hitting from distance is hard to do vs. the in-your-face (but rarely fouling) Gamecock defense, as USC’s foes have found out. Opposing coaches have been praising the Cocks for how well they “close out.” One of the more impressive occurrences in the tourney has been the development and confidence shown by the South Carolina attack, which suffered through some erratic stretches in the regular season. |
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04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago hasn’t given up on nabbing the final playoff spot in the East, as a 5-1 SU and spread surge through March 29th brought the Bulls to within a half-game of Miami for the 8th spot as of Monday. Atlanta has had injury problems, with PF Paul Millsap (18 ppg, 7.7 rpg; knee), G Kent Bazemore, and defensive specialist F Thabo Sefolosha (groin) down for periods. However, all 3 of those starters might be ready to go for this game. Favor Hawk side that is 9-1 SU in last 10 vs. Chicago. |
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03-31-17 | Rockets +9.5 v. Warriors | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston just hosted Golden State on Tuesday, and the Rockets are coming off a game last night in Portland. That scheduling hasn’t bothered Houston, however, as they’ve covered 10 of 14 this season playing without rest. The Warriors have certainly perked up since the middle of March, winning 9 straight with 7 covers in their last 9 of those victories. The Warriors have been doing it with defense, holding their last 6 foes to just 93 ppg. After Warrior games averaged 223 ppg before the All-Star break, HC Steve Kerr’s team has slowed the pace, with scoring down to 209 ppg total. That downshift has resulted in a 15-1 “under” run for Golden State games from Feb. 25-March 27. Warriors feeling heat from the Spurs, but Houston’s 9-1 mark as a road dog this season is impressive, and the now-injured F Kevin Durant led G.S. with 39 & 32 pts. in first two meetings with the Rockets. |
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03-31-17 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | 100-95 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The home team has won and covered both meetings this season, and OKC is 7-1 SU and vs. the points hosting the Spurs the last 4+ regular seasons at the Chesapeake Energy Arena. To be clear, the Thunder had Kevin Durant for most of those successes, and San Antonio has managed to win a few playoff games at this site the last few seasons. The Spurs have played well on the road this season (28-9 SU), but OKC is 27-10 SU at home (25-12 vs. the points), and the Thunder catch the Spurs coming off significant home games facing Cleveland and Golden State earlier this week. |
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03-31-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day These two played for the first time this season just 12 days ago at the Air Canada Centre, and Toronto cruised to a 25-point victory fueled by a 51-33 rebounding advantage and a 44%-26% edge in three-point shooting. The Raptors have won 9 of the last 10 at home against Indiana, covering 7 of those meetings, and are 5-1 SU overall in their last 6 games. Indiana was in a 3-way logjam for the 5-thru-7 spots in the Eastern playoff pecking order on Monday, so with Toronto in a fight with Washington for the 3-4 slots, this is a potential first-round playoff match up for both. Raptor G DeMar DeRozan has regained his shooting stroke, and F Serge Ibaka starting to fit in nicely with his new team. |
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03-30-17 | Clippers -11 v. Suns | 124-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers haven’t had much trouble vs. the Suns this season, winning and covering all three handily, including 10-point win in the desert in most-recent meeting on Feb. 1. Clips scoring almost 117 ppg in those wins. So even with L.A.’s recurring (and puzzling) bouts of indifference, we are hard-pressed to recommend a Suns team that has appeared to be in dump mode ever since Gs Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight went down with injuries earlier in March. L.A.’s inconsistencies (such as the blown lead on Sunday vs. Sacto) more than a bit troubling, but Clips have something to play for (4th seed in West) and Phoenix doesn’t. Series trends and margins in Clipper wins (last eight by nine or more) suggest this is one spot we can trust Doc Rivers’ bunch. |
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03-30-17 | Cavs v. Bulls +6 | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago has curiously dominated Cleveland this season, winning and covering all three meetings. And LeBron only missed one of those three losses (out for most-recent setback on Feb. 25 due to illness). D-Wade, however, now out for Bulls after scoring almost 20 ppg in first three clashes. It might be time for the Cavs to be really concerned about their defense, which has allowed four of their last five opponents to shoot better than 50 percent and ranks 29th since the All-Star break. Cavs were destroyed in the paint (70-30) in March 22 loss in Denver and couldn’t slow down John Wall in last Saturday’s loss to Washington, but they’ve also forced just 10 turnovers per 100 possessions (the lowest rate in the league) since the break. Suddenly, it’s no sure thing the Cavs can flip the switch. |
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03-30-17 | Lakers v. Wolves -10.5 | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let’s see if Minny is up for a payback after blowing a late lead at Staples Center last Friday. Not only did Jordan Clarkson score a career-high 35 points for Lake Show in that one, but he and D’Angelo Russell had a positive plus-minus (plus-6) together for just the second time in their last 27 games. Such embarrassment should spark an answer from the T-wolves, even though they had lost six in a row amid growing defensive concerns into Tuesday at Indiana. But this looks like a proper spot for Tom Thibodeau’s troops to take out some frustration, which Minny did the last time LA visited Target Center (125-99 T-wolves blowout back on Nov. 13). Last six Lake Show road losses by a staggering 25 ppg! |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech +3.5 v. TCU | 56-88 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The No. 7 team in the Big 12 meets the No. 11 team in the ACC for the 2017 NIT title! Edges appear small in a game that figures to feature improving 6-11 TCU C Vladimir Brodziansky (13.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg) vs. 6-10 Ga. Tech C Ben Lammers (14.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg). Brodziansky is more likely to step outside and face the basket, trying to draw out the postoriented Lammers. GT could perhaps gain an advantage with versatile 6-5 frosh Josh Okogie, who hits 75% of his FTs as part of his 16.1 ppg (prior to the semis). Meanwhile, Horned Frog contributors G Alex Robinson (11.4 ppg) and F Kenrich Williams (10.9 ppg) can be liabilities at the FT line (63% and 57%, respectively) in the late going. So TCU could end up being quite dependent upon 6-5 freshman Desmond Bane (5 of 11 triples first three rounds) and 6-6 sr. Brandon Parrish (7 of 15 treys) to connect from downtown under title-game pressure. |
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03-29-17 | Furman +3 v. St. Peter's | 51-77 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Truth be told, I was wishing these two didn’t draw one another in the semifinal, such is my respect for each. Especially the host Peacocks, who provided several point spread wins down the stretch thanks to their stingy defense, ranking sixth nationally in scoring allowance (just 61.1 ppg). But Saint Peter’s is often challenged offensively, usually forced to dump the ball on the blocks to rugged 6-8, 251-lb. PF Quadir Welton (top scorer at only 12 ppg) when needing a bucket, with the attack threatening to bog down completely if 6-2 George Washington transfer G Nick Griffin (43% triples) can’t find his stroke beyond the arc. Battle-tested Furman, whose 14-4 SU mark tied for first in the combative SoCon, has more offensive options, including the premier scorer in this matchup, 6-2 jr. G Devin Sibley (17.6 ppg; 52.4% FGs over the past 14 games), who gives the Paladins an edge when these teams need to find a go to scorer in the late going. |
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03-29-17 | Coastal Carolina v. Wyoming -7.5 | 57-81 | Win | 100 | 31 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Like the Chants, the Cowboys were unblemished vs. the spread in the earlier rounds of the CBI at home, winning and covering vs. Eastern Washington, UMKC, and dangerous Utah Valley at the Arena-Auditorium, where Wyo has now won and covered 6 of its last 7 stretching back to Mountain West regular season action. The Cowboys have to be somewhat encouraged by their 81 points in Game One without much help from their high scorer, slithery 6-7 wing Justin James (16 ppg), normally a 47% FG shooter (46% treys), who was only 5-for-17 from the floor (just 1 of 7 triples) at Conway. At some point in this series, the Cowboys’ lengthy perimeter (including 6-7 James, 6-8 Hayden Dalton, and 6-5 Jason McManamen) figures to cause matchup problems for the smaller Coastal back court. Worst yet, the Chants are expected to be shorthanded, as sr. G Shivaughn Wiggins (10.3 ppg) missed Game One of the Finals with a knee problem, while spindly 6-5 sr. Colton Ray-St. Cyr (14 points; 4 of 5 treys in the opener) is done for the tourney with a knee injury of his own. Expect the Cowboy comeback to begin tonight in Laramie as Wyo evens the series. |
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03-29-17 | Heat -3 v. Knicks | 105-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have had worse records in recent years, but that is faint praise for the continued dysfunctions this season. New York still doesn’t have a win streak longer than one game in calendar 2017, and now Joakim Noah’s 20-game suspension only adds to the woes in the first year of a four-year, $72 million contract that was looking ill-advised (to put it mildly) well before the suspension. Miami getting a real gift in its quest to make the playoffs with back-to-back games vs. Knicks. Would dismiss NY’s long-ago win at AA Arena on Dec. 6, back when Knicks were actually trying and before Heat took flight in mid-January. Though Miami had lost 3 of 4 entering the week, shooting only 30% from beyond arc, while Goran Dragic has shot 34 percent overall (with almost as many turnovers as assists) in that stretch. Heat made up for the bad shooting with 25 second-chance points in recent win over Phoenix, but needs to start making shots (and get Dion Waiters back to active duty) as Miami tries to hold onto the eighth and last playoff seed in the East. |
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03-29-17 | Hornets v. Raptors -6 | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sandwiched around a couple of narrow Toronto wins this season over Charlotte was a startling 35-point Hornets blowout back on Jan. 20. Raptors have since avenged that loss and entered the week on a 5-game SU win streak (4-1 vs. line), all minus G Kyle Lowry, who remains sidelined with a bad wrist, as Dwane Casey’s bunch not giving up in quest for something better than a 4 seed in the East playoffs. The recent 5- game Toronto uptick featured its best stretch of defense (93.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) of the season. Though the rotation is much different (no Lowry, new faces, young guys getting time) than it has been previously, they’re still much better when they go to their bench. With the improved defense, depth and versatility, a healthy return by Lowry for the playoffs would make the Raps a team to watch in the postseason. |
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03-29-17 | Hawks v. 76ers +1.5 | 99-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has had no trouble with Philly this season, winning and covering handily (closest margin 17) in three earlier romps. Those, however, were all with PF Paul Millsap available, and since he’s out until the weekend at the earliest, must note Hawks were 0-8 SU in his absence, scoring 17 ppg fewer without him, into last night vs. the Suns. Atlanta (which also lost 7 in a row into last night vs. Phoenix) could see its depth further compromised with Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore also hurting. If Philly is to avenge the earlier results, it is catching the Hawks at the right time. Sixers, at 17-5 vs. points last 22 into last night vs. Nets, s0 there is a technical case to be made for Sixers. |
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03-28-17 | TCU v. UCF +2.5 | 68-53 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units TCU has made a dramatic turnaround under first-year HC and alum Jamie Dixon, who led Pittsburgh to the Big Dance in 11 of his 13 seasons in the Steel City. Horned Frogs’ 6-11 Slovakian C Vladimir Brodziansky (13.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg) has developed into one of the top big men in the Big 12, while 6-1 jr. Alex Robinson (Texas A&M transfer) and 6-7 jr. F Kenrich Williams (he had the school’s first triple-double vs. Richmond!) provide steady scoring support. Additionally, 6-5 frosh G Desmon Bane (6.8 ppg) has been blossoming in the NIT, generating 13 points off the bench in each of the victories over Iowa & the Spiders. By the same token, UCF’s first-year mentor Johnny Dawkins has done a marvelous job in his debut in Orlando, leading the hard-nosed Knights to 24 victories after they won a total of only 37 games over the previous three campaigns. As the Stanford head honcho, Dawkins—who has gotten the Knights (with only seven scholarship players due to injuries/defections) to quickly buy into his philosophy of toughness and discipline—led the Cardinal to two NIT championships (2013 & 2015). I feel this should be a pick ’em game in the Big Apple, so I am suggesting “taking” with defensively-stifling, strong-boarding and surging UCF (allowing 67.2 ppg; a nation-leading 36.2% FGs; +8.8 rebounding margin, 6th nationally), which is 9-1 in its last 10 outings. |
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03-28-17 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After being outgunned by Houston in a wild 2-OT shootout at Oakland on Dec. 1, Golden State returned the favor on Jan. 20 at Toyota Center when rolling by 17, as Kevin Durant scored 32 and James Harden was “held” to 17 points. K-D, of course, is out at least another week (or perhaps longer according to the latest reports from HC Steve Kerr) as he nurses his bad knee, but his unavailability has prompted one of the top “totals” streaks in the NBA this season, as the Warriors are “under” 15-1 their last 16, roughly coinciding with Durant’s absence. Golden State, which slumped a few weeks ago in its early stages minus Durant, now enters Toyota Center on a 7-game SU win streak. |
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03-28-17 | Wolves v. Pacers -4.5 | 115-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana has yet to lock down a spot in the East playoffs, but did at least enter the week in a postseason position. Now the Pacers are gifted a reeling Minnesota side that enters Bankers Life Field house on a 6-game SU and spread skid. What has gone wrong for the T-wolves, whose current losing streak is also the longest in the career of HC Tom Thibodeau? Blame a tough March schedule and a sagging defense that has allowed opponents to score 120 points per 100 possessions in the slump. Can Indiana take advantage? The Pacers had better, because their next five games are against teams currently with winning records, and Indiana is only 11-18 SU vs. those sorts this term. Nate McMillan also has bench issues at the moment with Al Jefferson and Rodney Stuckey both hurting. But Jeff Teague (20.8 ppg on 53% FGs the last four) is providing consistent production, Myles Turner had a couple of big games over the weekend, and their starting lineup has been solid (plus-9.7 points per 100 possessions) over the last 10 games. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield +2.5 v. Georgia Tech | 61-76 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First, some recognition is due to Bakersfield, this year’s regular-season champion of the WAC and last year’s winner of the WAC tourney. Three times a national champ at the Division II level in the 90s, the Roadrunners (as a 15-point dog) hung tough in earning a cover in last year’s NCAA tourney, falling 82-68 vs. eventual Final Four team Oklahoma in CSUB’s first try in the Big Dance. And the Roadrunners have been undaunted in winning three straight as a visitor (at Cal, Colorado State, UTArlington) to reach the Garden. Something good is happening with the team put together by Rod Barnes, a former HC at Ole Miss and Georgia State. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech found itself on the outside looking in when this year’s NCAA teams were called on Selection Sunday, watching all nine teams ahead of the Yellow Jackets in the ACC standings get the call to the Big Dance. While CSUB has been traveling for the entire NIT tournament, higher-seeded Tech was gifted with a pair of home games (Indiana, Belmont) before winning at Ole Miss in the quarterfinals to reach New York. The Yellow Jackets are only 3-11 in all games away from home this season despite the emergence of 6-5 blue-chipper Josh Okogie (16.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to go with well-seasoned, NBA bound 6-10 jr. C Ben Lammers (14.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg). |
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03-27-17 | Thunder -1 v. Mavs | 92-91 | Push | 0 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams split first two meetings along home court lines. Not long ago, Dallas did get Ok City by 15 at AA Center on March 5 when Russell Westbrook was “held” to 29 & 6. Which was a nice accomplishment by Mavs after Westbrook lit them up for 45 in Thunder’s 11-point win and cover at the Peake on Jan. 26. Ok City had won and covered five straight before running headfirst into Warriors on March 20, and Westbrook’s recent brilliance has put the West fifth seed in play for Ok City. After a six-game stretch in which he averaged 44.0 points but only 8 assists as the Thunder lost 4 of 6, jeopardizing his chances of finishing the season with a triple-double average, Westbrook tallied 26.6 ppg, 10.8 rpg and 14.4 apg during the five game winning streak. That sort of production can reverse this season’s series home trends. |
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03-27-17 | Cavs v. Spurs -5 | 74-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two played a classic double-OT game at the “Q” on Jan. 21 when the Spurs survived by 3. Kawhi Leonard was the star that night with 41 points, one of his staggering 25 games of 30+ points thru March 20. Even with Kevin Love back in the fold, not sure about backing Cavs in revenge role, considering they had covered just 4 of last 13 thru March 20 and are just 2-8 as road dog this term. It won’t matter in this game, but Cavs fans in Charlotte, Chicago, Boston, Atlanta and Miami all need to be aware that the games their favorite team is playing in those cities are part of four remaining back-to-backs for the champs (though maybe that Boston game will mean something in regard to the No. 1 seed in the East), and that several starters are likely to rest those nights, as was case March 18 vs. Clippers. |
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03-27-17 | Magic v. Raptors -9 | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Double-revenge game for Toronto, which is chasing Boston for the Atlantic Division title and still hasn’t salted away the homecourt edge in the first round of the playoffs. The Raptors have played much-improved defense since the All-Star break, holding foes to 97.6 ppg in the 13 games since, compared with 104.3 ppg prior to that. Conversely, Orlando is playing it fast and loose, losing 5 of its last 6 through March 21 against the points while yielding 115 ppg. The Magic, who have no incentive to win games, might not have C Nikola Vucevic due to ankle and Achilles problems, and he’s been their leading scorer vs. the Raptors |
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03-26-17 | Blazers -6.5 v. Lakers | 97-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After years of taking their lumps against the Lakers, Portland has completely turned the tables on the once-great L.A. franchise and has won 11 straight in the series (9-2 vs. the points). The young Laker backcourt has been hurt by Blazer Gs C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, who combined for 47 ppg in the first 3 meetings this season. McCollum shot 55% in those games, leading Portland to a 50.4% mark as a team. Los Angeles is yielding 118 ppg and 50% in its last 10 games. |
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03-26-17 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Nuggets | 115-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Much has changed since Denver won at New Orleans way back in October, when the Nuggets scored a 107-102 upset despite a 50-point game by Pelican PF Anthony Davis. Since then the leading scorer for the Nuggets that night, Jusuf Nurkic, was traded to Portland, and the Pels have acquired DeMarcus Cousins. New Orleans PG Jrue Holiday missed that game as well, and he’s been on form lately, helping guide New Orleans to a 6-4 SU and 7-2-1 spread mark in the last 10 games prior to hosting Memphis Tuesday. Nuggets just 5-5 SU and vs. the points in their last 10 at the Pepsi Center through March 21. |
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03-26-17 | Heat v. Celtics -5 | 108-112 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Celtics are making the most of a critical late-season homestand and look to stay perfect in the stretch when they host the Miami Heat today. The Celtics weathered the storm of a 70-point performance by Phoenix Suns star Devin Booker in a 130-120 win Friday night, improving to 3-0 on their season-high six-game homestand. The streak has Boston one-half game behind first-place Cleveland in the Eastern Conference entering Saturday, but coach Brad Stevens wants a complete effort from his team after watching Booker make things interesting in the second half. |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky +2.5 v. North Carolina | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In this clash pitting two high-octane attacks, I have more faith that defensively-superior Kentucky (42.4% FGs allowed; 5.3 bpg) will come up with more critical stops in crunch time than offense-minded UNC, which allowed a different SEC foe, Arkansas, to find plenty of open looks until clamping down in the final 3 minutes in the Round of 32. The Wildcats’ budding 6-10 frosh C “Bam” Adebayo & battle-tested 6-9 sr. F Derek Willis can hold their own in the paint area with UNC’s more celebrated frontliners. So, look for UK to notch its 15th straight victory in Memphis, where mastermind John Calipari served as the Memphis head honcho for nine years before taking over in Lexington in 2009. When these two teams met in Las Vegas back on Dec. 17, the Cats’ Malik Monk had 47 and UK won. Monk has slowed a bit, but the Wildcats are much improved overall. |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3 | 77-70 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the rubber match between these SEC rivals, who split a pair of games this season, with the home side winning each. While SC was noted for its snarling defense for much of the season, its games have become faster-paced as the campaign has progressed, which did not help SC much in its 81-66 loss at Gainesville on Feb. 21. Which proved Florida can shift gears as needed, especially when soph G KeVaughn Allen (13.4 ppg, but 26 in that 15-point win) has located his shooting radar. Speaking of radar, the Gators didn’t even register on it from 3-point land in the first meeting at Columbia back on Jan 18, missing all 17 (!) triple attempts, but still losing by only 4. With the Gators maintaining their defensive intensity into late March, they have a Final Four look about them. |
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03-26-17 | Nets +7 v. Hawks | 107-92 | Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has been a money-burner at Philips Arena since mid-November, logging an 8-21 spread mark in its last 29 at home. One of those non-covers was a 110-105 victory over Brooklyn a few weeks ago (March 8), when Net backup G Sean Kilpatrick came off the bench with 27 points. Kilpatrick might be down with a hanstring injury, but PG Jeremy Lin should be available (he said his ankle twist wasn’t serious). Hawks can’t count on PG Dennis Schroder scoring 31 points as he did to lead all scorers in first goaround. Note Atlanta’s 19-28 mark as chalk this season through March 21. |
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03-25-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -6.5 | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland won 8 of its last 10 through Monday to climb into the playoff conversation, just 1 game behind Denver for the final spot in the West. The Trail Blazers took the first meeting 95-89 behind an explosive 43-point game from G C.J. McCollum, winning in Minnesota without the services of star PG Damian Lillard. Lillard has since returned and is scoring 31 ppg and shooting 49% since the All-Star break. Minny is coming off a game last night in Los Angeles against the Lakers, and Timberwolves are just 2-19 SU and 6-14-1 vs. the spread at Portland the last few seasons. |
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03-25-17 | Oregon +7.5 v. Kansas | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The key matchup in this Elite Eight battle will likely be Oregon HC Dana Altman sticking his 6-7 ace Dillon Brooks on Bill Self’s versatile 6-8 frosh phenom Josh Jackson; Brooks gives the Ducks the sort of unique component to neutralize Jackson that most Kansas foes have not owned. Depth issues could arise for the Jayhawks in a short turnaround vs. a high-quality foe. And the KU defense will be stretched against the various inside and outside Oregon weaponry, which has continued to operate at a high level even minus key 6-10 F Chris Boucher. |
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03-25-17 | Raptors +2 v. Mavs | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Toronto Raptors are doing just fine without star point guard Kyle Lowry, and they may be able to climb the standings in the Eastern Conference for his probable return in the playoffs. They will aim for their fifth straight win and potentially seize third place in the East when they visit the Dallas Mavericks today. Behind another monster effort from DeMar DeRozan - who has reached the 40-point mark in back-to-back games - Toronto rallied from 15 points down to grab a 101-84 win at Miami on Thursday. The triumph gave the Raptors a 10-5 record since Lowry was sidelined with a wrist injury at the All-Star break. |
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03-25-17 | Knicks v. Spurs -15.5 | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Antonio Spurs still have a chance to catch the Golden State Warriors for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference but time is running out. The Spurs have little margin for error over the final 11 regular-season games and look to post their fourth consecutive victory when they host the New York Knicks today. San Antonio recorded a 97-90 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday and coach Gregg Popovich was pleased with the 23-point performance by power forward LaMarcus Aldridge. The Knicks have dropped four straight games and nine of 11 after falling 110-95 to the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier +8 v. Gonzaga | 59-83 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Xavier comes into his one after stuffing Arizona following minor upsets of Maryland and Florida State to get to this West final vs. Gonzaga. The “Muskies” have stayed hot, and just might very well give the Bulldogs a run for their money in the fight to reach the Final Four. Basketball fans were well aware that the X-Men “knew how to play” before their late-season slump brought about by the loss of PG Edmond Sumner followed a little later by the ankle injury that bothered 6-6 wing Trevon Bluiett. Please note that under Mark Few, with all of his tourney teams the last 17 years, the Zags have never made it to the Final Four. Xavier has just enough quickness outside and bangers inside to give Gonzaga a battle. |
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03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After L.A. took the first two meetings by handy margins, Utah turned the tables on the Clippers. The Jazz were leading the Northwest Division by 2½ games at the beginning of the last week, but hard-charging OKC is going to the whip in the stretch and putting pressure on them. The Jazz have PG George Hill, F Gordon Hayward and C Rudy Gobert all on the same page, but they might miss PF Derrick Favors matching up against Clip counterpart Blake Griffin. Also must note Utah’s 3-12 mark this season as a road dog. |
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03-24-17 | Wolves -6.5 v. Lakers | 119-130 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams aren’t that far apart in the standings, but they are miles apart in terms of talent on hand. Since the All-Star break, Minnesota C Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 29 ppg and 14 rpg, F Andrew Wiggins 22 ppg, and PG Ricky Rubio 16 ppg and 11 apg. Rubio has suddenly found his shooting touch, clicking on 48% of his attempts in his last 10 games through Monday night’s action. Minny likely to be on a 4-game losing streak after absorbing double-digit losses against Boston, Miami and New Orleans before hosting San Antonio Tuesday. The Lakers have lost 8 straight at Staples Center, covering only as larger home dogs. Hungry Timberwolves will add to that misery. |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin +2 v. Florida | Top | 83-84 | Win | 100 | 52 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Wisconsin is aiming for its third Final Four berth in the last four seasons. The Badgers became the only team in the nation to advance to four straight Sweet 16s when they upset No. 1 overall seed Villanova in the Round of 32 last weekend thanks to continued terrific play from Bronson Koenig. The Badgers have two key seniors with multiple Final Four experience in Koenig, who has drained 11 3-pointers en route to 45 points through two games of this event, and Nigel Hayes, who is averaging 17.5 points and nine boards through two NCAA contests. Ethan Happ, who notched at least 10 points and eight rebounds in five straight games, is another cause for concern for the Gators. |
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03-24-17 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bulls | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia had covered 16 of its last 19 after getting the money at Orlando Monday, as Sixer PF Dario Saric has made a convincing case for being selected rookie of the year. Saric has averaged 20 pts. and 8 boards since the All-Star break, and Philly C Jahlil Okafor could be available after resting his sore knee for a few games. Chicago is just 22-31 as home chalk the last two seasons, while the Sixers are 10-4 this year as single-digit road dogs. The Bulls held sway in first two meetings this season, winning and covering at home and on the road, but G Dwyane Wade has since been declared out for the season, and he played an important role in earlier series victories (20 ppg, 57% vs. the Sixers). Sixers have lost 12 straight to the Bulls, but had covered 8 of last 9 road games this season prior to kicking off this road trip in Orlando Monday night. |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor -3.5 | 70-50 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units This marks the fourth time in 14 seasons under Scott Drew that the Bears made it to the Sweet 16 and they've advanced to the Elite Eight twice with wins over Saint Mary's in 2010 and Xavier in 2012 while losing to No. 2 seed Wisconsin in 2014. Motley, a 6-10 junior forward who has played himself into NBA lottery consideration, leads the team in scoring (17.3) and led the Big 12 in rebounding (9.9), and had 19 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks in the Bears' 82-78 second-round victory over USC. Junior point guard Manu Lecomte (12.3) is the only other player averaging in double figures but 7-0 junior forward Jo Lual-Acuil Jr., who averages 9.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks, and junior guard Al Freeman, who had 21 points in the team's 91-73 first-round victory over New Mexico State, have also been impact performers. Baylor is 9-1 against SEC teams since the 2012-13 season, including two wins over South Carolina. |
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03-24-17 | Butler +7.5 v. North Carolina | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Have the utmost respect for talent-rich UNC and likeable, 14-year mentor Roy Williams, who’s making his 18th trip to the Sweet 16, dating back to his time at Kansas. But it is somewhat troubling that the board-crashing, unselfish Tar Heels (who lead the nation in rebounding margin; 2nd in apg)—spearheaded up front by 6-10 sr. C Kennedy Meeks and versatile 6-8 jr. Justin Jackson—nearly blew a DD lead in their harrowing 72-65 victory over Arkansas in the second round, needing a 12-0 run over the final 3 minutes to knock off the Razorbacks. While we expect UNC’s key G Joel Berry II (ankle injury; 3 of 21 from the field in the Dance) to be more effective with extra time to heal, still recommend grabbing 7½ pts. (line at TGS presstime) with tough-minded Butler, back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2011. There will be no “intimidation factor” vs. the undaunted, smartly-coached Bulldogs, who defeated loaded, Sweet 16 team Arizona in the Las Vegas Invitational in late November, as well as prevailing twice vs. LY’s national champ Villanova, plus another Sweet 16 squad (Xavier) in the reg.-season, before losing to the Musketeers in the Big East tourney. Moreover, UNC won’t easily unleash its devastating transition game vs. methodical, tempo-controlling, mistake-minimizing Butler, owning a solid 3.2 TO margin (21st nationally). Don’t see the bruising Tar Heels, who thrive on the offensive glass, getting a plethora of second-chance opportunities vs. the Bulldogs’ industrious inside duo of 6-8 jr. F Tyler Wideman & 6-7 jr. F Andrew Chrabascz, who’ve faced a string of high-quality bigs in the Big East. In addition, the Butler attack has displayed more punch after savvy 3rd-year HC Chris Holtmann decided to bring top scorer 6-7 jr. Kelan Martin (16.1 ppg) and Kamar Baldwin (10.1 ppg) off the bench. Fundamentally, look for 6-3 jr. Bulldog defensive stopper G Kethan Savage, who stifled Middle Tennessee star G Giddy Potts (0 for 8 from the field) in the Round of 32, to be a virtual savage vs. UNC’s go-to G Joel Berry II. And envision an inspired effort from the Bulldogs’ integral 6-2 sr. G Avery Woodson, who played two years at Memphis before transferring to Indianapolis. The resolute, deep Bulldogs are 6-1-1 their last 8 as an underdog, and they have endured only one DD loss all season. |
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03-23-17 | Xavier +7.5 v. Arizona | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Musketeers struggled initially after point guard Edmond Sumner tore an ACL on Jan. 30, but junior guard Trevon Bluiett sparked the team’s postseason surge by averaging 25 points on 51.7 percent shooting in the NCAA Tournament. After knocking off two higher seeds in the first two rounds, Xavier aims for another upset in today’s Sweet 16 as the 11th-seeded Musketeers face No. 2 Arizona in an NCAA Tournament West Region matchup in San Jose, Calif. Xavier is back in the regional semifinals for the second time in three years following victories over Maryland and Florida State. |
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03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas -5 | 66-98 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For those who were thinking the Big Ten might not have a team escape the sub-regionals (and count me among the doubters), Purdue is one of three league reps still alive into the Sweet 16. In the Boilermakers’ case, erasing the bad taste left over from last year’s stunning first-round exit, courtesy of Little Rock. More recently, there’s also some redemption for the Boilers’ early exit at the Big Ten Tourney, which might have temporarily gotten the masses off Purdue’s scent last week in Milwaukee, where the Riveters eased past Vermont and then outscored one of the nation’s hottest teams (Iowa State) to survive and advance. But the ride likely ends today at the Sprint Center, where Kansas will have a near-home court edge. Though the KC venue did not help the Jayhawks in the recent Big 12 Tourney, when they were KO’d in their first game by upset minded TCU. Bill Self’s bunch, however, had a legit excuse vs. the Horned Frogs, as 6-8 star frosh Josh Jackson (16.6 ppg) was out due to suspension. Jackson was back in action at the sub-regionals in Tulsa, looking as good as ever, especially when scoring 23 in KU’s 90-70 second-round romp past capable Michigan State. |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Top-seeded Gonzaga looks for its third trip to the Elite Eight when it faces pressure-based West Virginia in today's NCAA Tournament West Region Sweet 16 contest at San Jose, Calif. Ball-handling will be of utmost importance for the Bulldogs when they face the fourth-seeded Mountaineers, who are the national leaders in turnovers forced at 20.1 per game. West Virginia's relentless approach is known as "Press Virginia" and the squad said it feels overlooked despite the school reaching the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in 10 seasons under coach Bob Huggins |
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03-23-17 | Michigan v. Oregon +1.5 | Top | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Tyler Dorsey continued his recent tear as he poured in 27 points, including the go-ahead 3-pointer with 38.4 seconds remaining, in the comeback win against Rhode Island. Brooks scored 19 points and pulled down seven rebounds to become the Ducks' all-time leader in NCAA Tournament scoring with 123 points as he passed Joseph Young (105) and Elgin Cook (117). Jordan Bell secured a game-high 12 rebounds as the Ducks erased an 11-point deficit in the second half and matched a program record for most wins in a season. |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units None of the current UCLA players likely remember when the Bruins knocked off the top-seeded Bearcats in double-overtime to reach the Sweet Sixteen in 2002, but the Bruins probably learned a lot about it during their off day. Like that day when Dan Gadzuric dominated the middle, Jason Kapono was sharp from outside and freshman point guard Cedric Bozeman ran the offense smoothly and efficiently, UCLA will need 6-10 freshman T.J. Leaf to be the best post player on both teams, Bryce Alford to shoot a high percentage from outside and Ball to distribute the ball well. A player the Bearcats may have trouble matching against is 7-foot forward Thomas Welch, who should find room to implement his dangerous mid-range game. |
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03-19-17 | South Carolina v. Duke -7.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Gamecocks were somewhat of an afterthought after losing five of their last seven leading up to the event, but they used a dominant second half to rout Marquette 93-73 on Friday for their first NCAA Tournament win since 1973. They also figure to have something of a home-court advantage playing at Bon Secours Wellness Arena, although the Blue Devils say they relish the thought of a hostile environment.Duke's Mike Krzyzewski has made an NCAA-record 23 trips to the Sweet 16 as a coach. The Blue Devils rank third in 3-point defense, holding opponents to 29.2 percent |
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03-19-17 | USC +7 v. Baylor | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Trojans have been the feel-good story of the tournament so far, coming back from 17 down to defeat Providence, 75-71, in a First Four game on Wednesday night and then rallying from a 12-point second half deficit to edge sixth-seeded SMU, 66-65, on Friday afternoon. It was the 13th time that USC had a double-digit comeback win this season, the most such victories in Division I. USC's 26 wins are a school record, surpassing the previous mark of 25 set in 2007. |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island +5.5 v. Oregon | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Oregon dominated the paint against the smaller Gaels but faces a tougher test against Rhode Island, which led from start to finish in Friday’s 84-72 upset of No. 6 seed Creighton. Freshman guard Jeff Dowtin scored a career-high 23 points against Creighton and senior forward Kuran Iverson added 17 as the Rams recorded their ninth straight victory and first in the NCAA Tournament since 1998. Forward Hassan Martin registered a double-double and helped limit Creighton big man Justin Patton to eight points on 3-of-12 shooting. Junior guard E.C. Matthews averages 14.9 points to lead the Rams, who finished tied for third in the Atlantic 10 Conference regular season but earned an automatic bid after winning three games in three days in Pittsburgh. |
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03-19-17 | Kings +13.5 v. Spurs | 102-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Antonio hasn’t lost to Sacto in a few years, but isn’t exactly running roughshod over the Kings this season, either, as Spurs have failed to cover any of the first three meetings. That includes March 8 at Verizon Center after departure of Boogie Cousins, when Coach Pop’s bunch had to rally from 37-15 after 1st Q (largest 1st-Q deficit in S.A. history!) and down 28 in 2nd Q before finally collaring Sacto in late going. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge were rested that night, but Aldridge’s absence will now continue indefinitely as he undergoes a battery of tests for heart arrhythmia that could keep him out an extended period. Not greatly interested in laying another inflated price with Spurs, who had dropped six straight vs. line before being gifted with a shorthanded Golden State team on March 11. Though S.A. was effectively tied with Warriors for top playoff seed entering the week, Spurs have been winning a lot of close games lately. Not too keen to lay this sort of price. |
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03-19-17 | Arkansas v. North Carolina -10 | 65-72 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units North Carolina has unfinished business in the NCAA Tournament, but the next step for the top-seeded Tar Heels is Sunday's encounter with eighth-seeded Arkansas in Greenville, S.C. The Razorbacks advanced to the second round in the South Region with a close win over Seton Hall, while the Tar Heels cruised in their tournament opener. Justin Jackson was the story for North Carolina on Friday, posting 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting (5-of-8 from the arc) in a much-needed performance for the ACC Player of the Year. The junior had shot 7-of-31 from the arc during a four-game shooting slump and also pulled down seven rebounds in the Round of 64 - his highest total in two months. This is the sixth meeting in the NCAA Tournament between the teams. Both of the Razorbacks' last two NCAA Tournament exits came at the hands of the Tar Heels (2008, 2015). |
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03-19-17 | Blazers v. Heat -5.5 | 115-104 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami’s surge is almost becoming ‘72 Dolphins like, as Heat now 21-5 SU and 22-4 vs. line in last 26 thru March 14. Last Sunday’s close loss (but cover) at Indiana was the first time in that 26-game span that the SU and spread winners were different in a Miami game. Speaking of different, it is not the same Heat as the floundering version that lost by 7 at Portland way back on December 3, though remember that underrated Miami defense kept Damian Lillard & C.J. McCollum mostly in check that night, limiting them to combined 13 for 37 from floor. Both teams in pitched battles to squeeze into the back end of their respective conference playoff slots, though tech case more persuasive against Blazers, just 7-15 as road dog into March 14 at New Orleans |
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03-19-17 | Suns v. Pistons -10.5 | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just in the nick of time, Detroit looks to be developing a beachhead in East playoff chase, winning and covering 4 of last 5 through March 11 win over Knicks to hold the seventh slot in the traffic jam into this week for the final conference postseason invitations. Stan Van Gundy’s experiment with Tobias Harris as the sixth man also seems to have ended after Harris scored 23 points in the first half alone of that recent win over New York. Don’t want to completely dismiss improving Phoenix, whose 5-1 spread uptick was finally slowed in March 12 loss vs. desperate Portland. But also like long range revenge angle, as Pistons not likely to shoot a sickly 36% from the floor as was the case in their 7-point loss in the desert way back on November 7. |
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03-19-17 | Wichita State +5 v. Kentucky | Top | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units In addition to owning far and away the Missouri Valley Conference's top scoring offense (81.5 points), the Shockers boast the conference's top marks in field-goal percentage defense (37.6 - fourth in the nation), 3-point percentage defense (30.9 - 17th) and rebounding margin (plus-9.2 - third). Leading scorers Markis McDuffie (11.7 points) and freshman guard Landry Shamet (11.2) shot a combined 4-of-17 against Dayton but received plenty of help from Zach Brown (12 points, 3-of-3 from beyond the arc) and Rashard Kelly (eight, career-high 11 rebounds). Shamet has connected on a 3-pointer in 24 consecutive games and made a freshman school-record 70 on the season, while Conner Frankamp has recorded at least one in 21 straight contests and leads the team with 71. A victory on Sunday by Wichita State, which is tied with Drake at 1,202 wins, will make it the winningest program in MVC history. |
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03-19-17 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | 99-105 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly still covering numbers (three straight after win over Lakers on March 12, improving spread mark to 12-3 last 15 prior to last Tuesday at Golden State), which Sixers have done on all three occasions this season vs. Boston, despite losing all of those SU vs. Celtics. That includes most-recent meeting on Feb. 15 at TD Garden, when Philly used 22 points from improving 6-10 Euro rookie import Dario Saric to stay within earshot. Still, Sixer technical case not airtight despite 23-8 home dog mark, as Boston a solid 23-13 vs. line on road into March 17 at Brooklyn, and Celtics still very much in a scrap with the East elite for the top four conference playoff seeds, all still up in the air into mid-March. |
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03-18-17 | Bucks v. Warriors -10.5 | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State had lost 5 of its last 7 SU prior to starting this 3-game homestand vs. Philly and Orlando. That tailspin, which not coincidentally corresponds almost directly to the injury to allstar F Kevin Durant, has the Warriors in danger of losing the top seed in the West. Golden State needed every one of Durant’s 33 points to hold on for a 124-121 victory at Milwaukee on Nov. 19. Golden State was 1-9 vs. the number last 10 through March 13. Still, would rather lay reasonable number than count on Buck side that’s 8-14 as a road dog. |
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03-18-17 | Iowa State v. Purdue +1 | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units A contrast in styles figures to make for an intriguing second-round NCAA Tournament Midwest Region matchup tonight when Iowa State takes on Purdue in Milwaukee. The fifth-seeded Cyclones feature a high-scoring four-guard attack while the fourth-seeded Boilermakers boast one of the nation’s most-imposing front lines, led by national player of the year-candidate Caleb Swanigan. The 6-9, 250-pound Swanigan totaled 16 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and a trio of blocked shots in Thursday’s 80-70 first-round win over Vermont while fellow forward Vince Edwards added a game-high 21 points - with 15 coming in the second half. Swanigan, Edwards and a 7-2 Isaac Haas combined for 25 of Purdue’s 38 rebounds as the Boilermakers finished a plus-10 on the glass and overwhelmed the Catamounts in the paint. |
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03-18-17 | Jazz v. Bulls +6 | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah F Gordon Hayward had an unusually poor shooting night (3 of 15) and was held to just 8 pts. back on Nov. 17 when these two first met this season. Look for the Jazz to turn the tables on Chicago this time around. Utah is 8-4 SU in its last 12 road games, and the Jazz have regained the services of PG George Hill after a brief absence. Chicago played in Washington last night, and the Bulls are just 1-4 this season vs. the number at home in 2nd of back-to-back games. |
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03-18-17 | Virginia +2 v. Florida | Top | 39-65 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units Florida and Virginia meet Saturday in the second round of the NCAA Tournament’s East Region in Orlando, Fla. in a matchup of two power-five conference teams are excellent defensively. Both squads will look for better performances after the fourth-seeded Gators shook off a sluggish first half to pull away from East Tennessee State and the fifth-seeded Cavaliers actually relied on their offense to hold off UNC-Wilmington. Virginia, which leads the nation in scoring defense, shot 51 percent and received a career-high 23 points off the bench from Marial Shayok in the five-point victory. Florida, which came into the tournament averaging 9.5 turnovers (third in the nation), committed eight in the first half. |
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03-18-17 | Cavs +3.5 v. Clippers | 78-108 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland will well remember Clippers sailing to a 113-94 victory at Quicken Loans Arena back on Dec. 1. LeBron James made just 5 of 14 shots and only 6 of 11 FTs, while the Clipper Bench out scored the Cav reserves 46-28. Cleveland is feeling heat from Boston and Washington in the East, and it’s imperative that the Cavs have a successful road trip. This 4-game swing starts with a victory over Los Angeles. |
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03-18-17 | St. Mary's v. Arizona -4 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units Arizona forward Lauri Markkanen had 20 points and six rebounds in Thursday’s 100-82 win over No. 15 seed North Dakota as the Wildcats dominated the paint and shot 58 percent from the field. The 7-foot freshman averaged 20 points to lead Arizona to the Pac-12 tournament title but faces a tough matchup Saturday against Saint Mary’s 6-11 center Jock Landale, who averages 16.2 points along with 9.2 rebounds and recorded his 16th double-double of the season in the win over VCU. Landale will need to avoid foul trouble against a formidable Arizona frontline that includes 7-foot center Dusan Ristic, who had 12 points on 5-of-10 shooting against North Dakota. Arizona averages 76.9 points |
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03-18-17 | Middle Tennessee +2.5 v. Butler | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units A decade ago, Butler began establishing itself as one of the gold standards for mid-major basketball programs. Relative unknown Middle Tennessee, a 12th seed which is coming off a first-round upset in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season, will be looking to take another step toward that end when the Blue Raiders tangle with the fourth-seeded Bulldogs in the second round of the South Region today in Milwaukee. Middle Tennessee, which led by as many as 17 in Thursday’s 81-72 triumph over fifth-seeded Minnesota, beat Michigan State in the first round last season as a No. 15 seed before falling to Syracuse. The Blue Raiders, who have already set a school record for wins (31), have won 20 of their last 21 games and have wins this season over SEC schools Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. |
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03-18-17 | Xavier v. Florida State -7 | Top | 91-66 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units The Seminoles need to cut down on the 16 turnovers they committed against Florida Gulf Coast, but their offensive potential was on full display. Star guard Dwayne Bacon (17.1 points) scored 25 points against the Eagles while freshman forward Jonathan Isaac (12.1, 7.7 rebounds) recorded 17, 10 rebounds, five assists, three blocks and two steals. The Seminoles also blocked nine shots and got double-digit scoring from point guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes (10.4 points, 4.9 assists) and wing Terance Mann (8.6, 4.7 rebounds), but they will face a tougher defensive opponent in the Musketeers. With a win, the Seminoles would tie the school record for wins set in 1971-72, when they advanced to the NCAA Tournament championship game. |
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03-18-17 | Wisconsin v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Villanova opened its title defense with a 20-point win against Mount St. Mary's in which the team overcame a dreadful start, missing its first eight shots and not taking a lead until 2:33 remained in the first half. The Wildcats likely can't afford another slow start against a Badgers team that topped Virginia Tech on Thursday behind Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes, two seniors with a pair of Final Fours on their resume. |
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03-17-17 | Rockets v. Pelicans +5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston faced the “twin towers” version of New Orleans on Feb. 23 and wasn’t impressed. The Rockets scored a 129-99 blowout victory in C DeMarcus Cousins’ debut with the Pelicans. N.O. has begun to adjust to the changes since then, however, as the Pels had a 4-1-1 spread record in their last 6 through. Cousins and F Anthony Davis have combined for 46 ppg and 23 rpg in their last 5 through March 13, and PG Jrue Holiday has dished 8 apg in that span (a bit above his seasonal avg.). The addition of NBA vet G Jordan Crawford on a 10-day deal appears a coup for the Pelicans, as he scored 16 ppg and shot 56% on his threes in his first 3 games. |
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03-17-17 | Raptors v. Pistons -4 | 87-75 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit has been making the most of home court the last six weeks, covering 10 of 12 at the Palace prior to hosting Utah Wednesday. Pistons have held foes to 99 ppg at home, and top scorer F Tobias Harris didn’t appear to be hampered by a sore knee in scoring a season-high 28 pts. vs. New York Saturday. Toronto has hit a bit of a swoon, dropping 3 of 4 SU and vs. the points prior to hosting Dallas Monday, as absence of G Kyle Lowry might’ve begun to take a toll. Raptor star DeMar DeRozan has been held to 20 ppg and 40.7% in his last 5 games, and F DeMarre Carroll missed action recently with a sore ankle. |
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03-17-17 | Wichita State -5.5 v. Dayton | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have a healthy respect for tough-minded, astutely-coached Dayton (7), boasting a topflight senior backcourt duo in 6-2 Scoochie Smith (13.5 ppg, 4.4 apg) and 6-5 Charles Cooke (16.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.0 apg). But, while the Flyers were 3-0-1 as an underdog this year, I still prefer to lay a fair price with Missouri Valley juggernaut Wichita State, which made it to the Final Four in 2013 under mastermind Gregg Marshall. The strong boarding Shockers (5th nationally in rebounding margin), spearheaded by remarkably-poised frosh PG Landry Shamet (11.3 ppg, 3.3 apg) and hard working 6-8 soph F Markis McDuffie (11.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg), are riding a 15-game win skein, admittedly in a down year for the MVC. But proven motivator Marshall who defeated Arizona’s Sean Miller, the brother of UD head honcho Archie Miller in LY’s opening round (after Wichita beat Vandy in a play-in)—will use his team’s perceived low seeding as extra-incentive in Indianapolis. The Flyers are not exactly entering the Big Dance exuding confidence, having been knocked off as a No. 1 seed in the first round of the A-10 tourney by Davidson. Undeterred from laying around 3 hoops, since the d-e-e-e-p Shockers have won by more than 6 points in 29 of their 30 victories TY! |
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03-17-17 | Bulls v. Wizards -7 | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago took first meeting vs. Washington, but that was back on Nov. 12, before Washington put things together and went 34-8 from Dec. 8 through March 12. The Wizards won the next two against the Bulls, although Chicago covered at the Verizon Center on Jan. 10. Washington has cooled off at home in the last month, covering only 3 of last 9 as host prior to facing Dallas Wednesday after ripping to a 14-1 spread mark in previous 15. Still, the Bulls had dropped 5 in a row SU and against the point spread through Sunday, scoring just 90 ppg and shooting 40.7%. Trust Wizard team that’s caught Boston and is breathing down Cleveland’s neck for the top spot in the East a bit more at this stage. |
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03-17-17 | Mavs v. 76ers +5.5 | 74-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Return to action of C Jahlil Okafor and sizzling shooting of rookie PF Dario Saric sparked three straight covers for Philly, including a SU road win at the Lakers through. The Sixers have had a few days off since visiting Golden State on Tuesday. This will be Dallas’ first game as a road favorite this season; so must give considerable weight to Philly’s remarkable 23-8 home dog mark. |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island +1 v. Creighton | 84-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It took a while for Rhody (11) to hit stride. But the Rams enter the Dance as one of the nation’s hottest teams after storming thru the A-10 Tourney to avoid sweating out an at-large bid, extending their late-season surge to eight victories in a row...all in must-win mode. Which didn’t surprise a lot of regional observers, who are quick to remind that the Rams were picked in the Top 25 in some preseason polls. With at least three players (F Hassan Martin, G Jared Terrell, and F Kuran Iverson) who are going to be paid to play in the near future, Rhody is not to be overlooked. We can, however, do just that with a Creighton (6) side that has been floundering ever since key PG Mo Watson, Jr., the nation’s leading assist man (8.5 pg) midway thru the season, went down with a knee injury in mid-January. Since then, the Bluejays are 7-8 SU, using a committee approach at the point, including frosh Davion Mintz, keeping the offense functional at times, but nowhere near as efficient as it was when Watson was controlling traffic (Creighton was 18-1 SU when Watson went down). Over the past six weeks, the Rams have appeared to be the better team, and they can continue their recent momentum into the second round. |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon -14.5 | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There could have been worse opening-round matchups for Oregon (2) than go-go Iona (14), once again sporting an 80 ppg offense that only knows how to play at fast speed. Though the Gaels go uptempo a bit differently these days, with their first option being 6-8 PF Jordan Washington (17.9 ppg) on the blocks before a squadron of bombardiers, led by Fordham transfer G Jon Severe, lets fly from long range, where the Gaels hit at a 40% clip. Even though Dana Altman prefers a more moderate tempo and execution in halfcourt sets for this Duck edition, small-ball teams such as Iona that also don’t feature much defense (the Gaels rank 272nd in points allowed) can play right into Oregon’s wheelhouse, allowing the various Webfoot weapons such as 6-7 wing Dillon Brooks (16 ppg) to become quickly involved offensively. And when the traffic lanes open up, 6-2 Ducks’ frosh facilitator Payton Pritchard can gladly provide service to a variety of options. We’ll eventually see how UO is impacted by the loss of key 6-10 F Chris Boucher (out with a knee injury), but his absence shouldn’t hurt much vs. this smaller Metro-Atlantic rep. |
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03-17-17 | Seton Hall +1 v. Arkansas | 71-77 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arkansas (8) excited to be back in the Big Dance after its 16-16 season of 2015-16. And while the offensive-minded Razorbacks got on a hot streak down the stretch prior to their 82-67 blowout loss to Kentucky in the SEC title game, believe U of A makes an early exit in Greenville. Have faith that tough-minded, defensive-oriented Seton Hall (9), ranking 38th nationally in defensive efficiency, is primed to advance after its 66-52 setback to Gonzaga in the first round last season. The percolating Pirates nearly upset mighty Villanova in their spread-covering 55-53 loss to the Wildcats in the semifinals of the Big East tourney over the weekend. The Hall is benefiting from strong bench play provided by blossoming 6-2 frosh G Myles Powell (10.5 ppg). And the Pirates own the game’s most versatile performer in 6-4 jr. G Khadeem Carrington (17.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.3 apg), who works well in tandem with industrious 6-2 sr. G Madison Jones (5.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.3 apg). Plus, SH’s double-double machine, 6-10 jr. Angel Delgado (15.7 ppg, 13.1 rpg to lead the country) figures to overshadow the Razorbacks’ somewhaterratic 6-10 jr. F Moses Kingsley (12.0 ppg, 7.8), who was M.I.A. in the SEC title game. |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Michigan | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm testing a couple theories...and gulping as I do it...such is my respect for Michigan (7) and shrewd HC John Beilein, one of my favorites and one with plenty of successes and spread covers in post seasons past. But I wonder how much energy Michigan had to use in winning four games in as many days at last week’s Big Ten Tourney in Washington after the Wolverines’ plane skidded off the runway as the team initially prepared to leave for D.C. Meanwhile, OSU (10), with its at-large bid secured, was not too bothered by an early exit, courtesy Iowa State, in the Big 12 Tourney, allowing the Cowboys some extra rest after a recent 10-1 SU surge that put Oklahoma State in position to earn a call from the Selection Committee. That OSU also made its move in the rugged Big 12 (tougher, we believe, than this year’s Big Ten), winning five times on the road in that treacherous loop, and that first-year HC Brad Underwood is already a proven March commodity by virtue of his magic woven last year at SF Austin, gives the Cowboys plenty of their own credentials. Fundamentals don’t appear to provide an edge either way, with both teams generating most of their offense from the backcourt (the Derrick Walton, Jr.-Jawun Evans matchup should be a doozy). I will side with a few factors I believe favor dangerous OSU in what might be one of the better games of the opening round. |
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03-16-17 | Magic +14 v. Warriors | 92-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kevin Durant was still in the frame for the Warriors when they won by 20 at Amway Center on Jan. 22. Though the game wasn’t quite as easy as the scoreline looked, as Orlando was ahead until early in the 3rd Q when Golden State went on a 42-19 run to seal the outcome. Those sorts of spurts aren’t happening lately, however, for the Durant-less Warriors, who had covered just one of their last ten into Tuesday’s game vs. Philly, with the resultant offensive dropoff resulting in 8-1 “under” mark last seven thru March 13. Orlando not helpless and has covered 7 of 9 as a road dog of more than 9 points. This game could get very interesting in the Magic's, especially since the price floated into the teens. |
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03-16-17 | Weber State v. CS-Fullerton +1 | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these sides were close to Big Dance bids, CSF losing a bitter OT battle in the Big West semis when a last-second UC Davis trey attempt missed the mark so badly that it bounced awkwardly into the unsuspecting hands of an Aggie (who barely beat the buzzer on a game-winning lay-in), and Weber State blowing an 11-point lead in the late going of the Big Sky finale and losing in OT vs. North Dakota. The Titans, however, get home edge in the “Riley Wallace Classic” of the CIT. And homecourt meant something down the stretch, as Fullerton has won six straight at Titan Gym, all part of a nice late-season turnaround in which Dedrqiue Taylor’s team won 9 and covered 10 of its last 12 games. CSF also might get back the services of key frosh F Jackson Rowe (10 ppg; foot), in whose absence the Titans still managed to stay afloat the last couple of weeks. The Wildcats lean heavily on sr. G Jeremy Senglin (21 ppg), but the Weber offense bogs down when Senglin goes cold. The deep Titan backcourt, led by sr. Tre Coggins (18 ppg), will relish the chance to out-duel Senglin. |
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03-16-17 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Wisconsin | 74-84 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Conference comparisons are often a tricky gauge in the Dance. But if assuming that the ACC was a couple of notches above this season’s Big Ten (and I do), it makes the case for VPI (9) a bit more convincing against Wisconsin (8). While the Badgers have plenty of experience on their roster from recent deep runs in the Dance, they also didn’t face often face as much quickness as Buzz Williams can put on the floor with his Hokies. And while VPI lost 6 of 10 in one particularly difficult January-February stretch, the Badgers also slumped in February (once losing five of six), and didn’t have an ACC slate to blame, before finally steadying late. The Hokies will come at Wiscy from lots of different angles, as their two best players (G Seth Allen, the ACC Sixth Man of the Year, and F Zach LeDay) come off of the bench, while VPI ranks among the nation’s leaders in points per possession and effective FG %, not to mention its 41% accuracy on 3-balls ranking 10th nationally. The Hokies also enter the Dance on a 9-1 spread uptick, are 10-4 as a dog this season, and were good enough to go into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan...the same Wolverine team that just whipped the Badgers to win the Big Ten Tourney |
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03-16-17 | Florida Gulf Coast +12 v. Florida State | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A little state pride is at stake as Florida State (3) from Tallahassee in the north of returns to the NCAA field for the first time since 2012, while Florida Gulf Coast (14) from Fort Myers in the southwest is making its third appearance in the last five years. It should be noted that the Eagles (who still brand their program as “Dunk City”), have advanced in each of their two previous appearances, beating Georgetown and San Diego State in 2013 under Andy Enfield, then demolishing Fairleigh Dickinson 96-65 in a First Four game LY under long-time Kansas asst. Joe Dooley before falling 83-67 to eventual finalist North Carolina. So FGCU can play more than just a little bit. The issue in this matchup for the Eagles is what the do with the Seminoles’ superior size, as FSU starts 6-10 freshman Jonathan Issac and 7-1 sr. Michael Ojo, and can bring 7-4 soph project Christ Koumadje off the bench. Not to mention freshman star Dwayne Bacon (16.9 ppg), who plays bigger than his 6-7. But the athletic Eagles, with their four DD scorers and 10-man rotation (three 6-8 or better) are used to facing bigger teams. FGCU played at Florida, Baylor, and Michigan State early in the season, losing by 21, 9 and 1, respectively. And “Dunk City” reached its stride near Christmas, winning 19 of its last 21 games, including three double-digit victories to capture the Atlantic Sun tournament. FGCU (35%) might not hit its triples as often as in the past, but the Eagles (26-7 SU) can dunk, with an overall margin of victory of 10.6 ppg. Enough to look for FGCU to play the pest role once more time. |
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03-16-17 | Jazz +7 v. Cavs | 83-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland not a reliable proposition in recent weeks, as Cavs had lost SU in five and dropped six vs. line in nine-game stretch into rematch with Detroit on Tuesday. The hoped-for reinforcement on defense that Andrew Bogut was supposed to provide went up in smoke when the big Aussie broke his leg in his first minute of action in Cleveland on March 6 vs. the Heat. Now LeBron & friends hit a hot Utah side that has won 7 of 10, and they also topped Cavs by 8 in Salt Lake City on Jan. 10 when Jazz held Cleveland to mere 36% from floor, and Gordon Hayward scored 28. |
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03-16-17 | Thunder v. Raptors -2.5 | 123-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite good home results lately, Russell Westbrook’s one-man show is suddenly not enough for Thunder to win on the road. Ok City couldn’t beat Portland on March 7 despite 58 points from Westbrook, and had lost 7 straight on the road prior to visiting Brooklyn Tuesday. And Westbrook’s 36 were not nearly enough to overcome Toronto at the Peake back on November 9, when the Raptors won by 10 behind DeMar DeRozan’s 37. Toronto still minus G Kyle Lowry (wrist), but DeRozan is doing everything he can to try to haul the Raps out of a potential second-round encounter with defending champ Cleveland. DeMar is scoring 27 ppg since the All-Star break sans Lowry. |
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03-16-17 | St. Peter's +1 v. Albany NY | 59-55 | Win | 100 | 50 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Saint Peter’s has had almost two weeks to stew about its exit (as the second seed) in the Metro-Atlantic Tourney vs. Iona, Albany might still be thinking about one that got away in last Saturday’s A-East finale vs. favored Vermont, with the Great Danes blowing a double-digit lead in an eventual 56-53 loss. Remember, the Peacocks were the talk of their league late in the season, covering ten times in one 11-game stretch and winning their last four SU as a visitor, paced by a nasty “D” that ranked among the nation’s leaders in scoring defense (61.1 ppg, ranking 12th) and allowing only 41.1% from the floor, with punishing 6-8 sr. PF Quadir Welton (12.1 ppg) proving a viable offensive force on the blocks. |
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03-16-17 | Middle Tennessee -1 v. Minnesota | 81-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kudos to 4th-year HC Richard Pitino of Minnesota (5) for leading his resurgent Gophers back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2013 (Tubby Smith’s final season in Minneapolis) after going a miserable 8-23 last season. But UM suffered a serious hit when team captain sr. G Akeem Springs (9.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg) was recently lost for the season with an Achilles injury. So, will side with veteran MTS (12), which endured only one blemish in C-USA play and is considered a superior overall squad than the one that stunned Michigan State in the Round of 64 last year. The Blue Raiders have been strengthened by the addition of 6-8 sr. Arkansas transfer, F JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 54.1% FGs), who along with frontline mate 6-8 Reggie Upshaw (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 52.5% FGs) stand a good chance of getting UM’s foul-prone 6-10 jr. C Reggie Lynch (3.5 bpg) in early “whistle trouble.” Plus, burly 6-2, 220-lb. jr. MTS G Giddy Potts (15.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg) will more than neutralize the Gophers’ go-to G Nate Mason (15.5 ppg, 5.1 apg). Undervalued Blue Raiders climb to 23-10-1 vs. the line TY! |
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03-15-17 | Texas-Arlington +5.5 v. BYU | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Veteran, athletic UT Arlington, which had its eye on a Big Dance invitation, was unexpectedly knocked out of the Sun Belt tourney semifinals by underdog Texas State. But will still lend support to the hard-to-beat Mavericks, who posted a 4-1 spread mark as a visiting underdog TY, including upset wins at Texas and Saint Mary’s in the preconference. BYU’s main frontline weapon, 6-10 F Eric Mika, won’t easily “get off” vs. UTA’s aggressive 6-8 sr. F Jorge Bilbao. And the Cougs will have difficulty coping with the Mavs’ dynamic 6-7 jr. Kevin Hervey (17.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg), who wants redemption for his subpar effort vs. the Bobcats, when he hit only 4 of 12 from the field and had 3 TOs. Defensively-vulnerable BYU (73.3 ppg) has registered a poor 0-4-1 spread mark its last 5 in Provo |
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03-15-17 | Bucks +8 v. Clippers | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks are teetering on the edge of the top eight in the Eastern Conference and can't afford to go on a losing streak. The Los Angeles Clippers, who host the Bucks today, are more secure in the top eight of the West but are fighting for homecourt advantage in the first round and won’t make things easy on Milwaukee. The Bucks won six straight to get back into the top eight and move to the verge of a .500 record before falling off in a 113-93 loss at the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday in the opener of a six-game road trip. Milwaukee snapped a three-game losing streak in the series with a 112-101 home win on March 3. |
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03-15-17 | Kings v. Suns -5.5 | 107-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maybe Sacto wouldn’t have blown a 28-point lead on March 8 vs. Spurs had Boogie Cousins still been in the fold. Then again, imagine how all sharp objects would have to have been removed from the locker room had Cousins been around for that collapse. With Boogie in tow and scoring 24, Kings won by 19 in the desert on opening night, though Suns returned favor on Feb. 3 at Golden 1 Center behind Devin Booker’s 33 points. Thru March 12, Sacto still hadn’t won SU since its first game without Cousins out of the All-Star break, while Phoenix now competing briskly, covering 5 of last 7. Yet another ex-Kentucky G, Tyler Ulis, is now making big contributions for Phoenix, hitting the game-winner in recent upset of Celtics. |
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03-15-17 | USC -2.5 v. Providence | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Interesting that these two get matched up early again as they did in a first round clash last year, when Southern Cal (11) blew a late lead and Providence (11) stole a 70-69 decision in Raleigh. While the Trojans look to have been the last team to make the field of 68, they have the capacity to win a few games in the Dance, and the revenge angle intrigues. Especially since this Friar edition, though rallying admirably down the stretch to make the field, lacks the firepower of LY’s version that featured the potent combo of G Kris Dunn (now NBA T-wolves) and F Ben Bentil. Curiously, SC lost more games after the return from injury of versatile 6-10 weapon Bennie Boatwright (14.6 ppg), but Andy Enfield’s bunch can force tempo and has the ability to rain 3s, especially Gs Elijah Stewart and Jordan McLaughlin (both near 40% triples). The battle at the point between McLaughlin and Providence counterpart Kyron Cartwright will be key, but if a similar SC almost beat a more star-studded Friars last season, the Trojans can get over the hump this time. |
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03-15-17 | Fresno State +10.5 v. TCU | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units TCU’s first-year HC Jamie Dixon deserves props for quickly turning around the Horned Frog program. And while TCU represents the superior conference in this pairing, believe the oddsmakers are failing to give sufficient respect to balanced (4 starters who are DD scorers), road-proven Fresno State, which recorded a notable 8-2 underdog mark TY as a visitor (pulled off upsets at Nevada, San Diego State & Boise State) along with a 6-1 spread record in the preconference, including a near upset at Marquette in early December. The Bulldogs’ well-organized attack, led by hard-to-guard 6-6 G Jaren Hopkins (Colorado transfer), should get plenty of open looks vs. an inviting Horned Frog defense permitting 44.5% from the field (209th nationally). Somewhat overvalued TCU was a weak 5-12 its last 17 vs. the spread. |
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03-15-17 | Green Bay v. UMKC | 82-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s a “Packers vs. Chiefs” rematch, not of Super Bowl I, but rather the Nov. 20 battle at the Bowling Green Tourney. Now, the venue shifts to the historic KC Municipal Auditorium (the home of several memorable Final Fours in its heyday), where host UMKC hops in, looking to atone for that earlier 95-77 loss, when Green Bay hit 53% from the floor and had five DD scorers, led by sr. G Charles Cooper, who had 17. Although they didn’t finish their season on an uptick, the go-go Fighting Phoenix still appear to have too much firepower for the Roos, who have been fighting with one hand (or one leg, given they’re the Kangaroos) tied behind them ever since LY’s leading scorer, G Martez Harrison (17 ppg), left the team earlier in the season. |
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03-15-17 | Wolves v. Celtics -6 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves haven't beaten the Celtics in Boston in their last 10 tries and the hosts should be well-rested after an easy 100-80 victory over Chicago on Sunday. Isaiah Thomas needed only 24 minutes to score a game-high 22 points as Boston successfully started a closing stretch in which it plays 11 of its final 16 games at home. |
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03-15-17 | Pelicans v. Heat -6 | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Though we suspect improved efforts might be forthcoming from New Orleans, second nights of back-to-backs have not been the time to support the Pels (who hosted Blazers last night), just 4-8 vs. line in that role, and 2-6 on road. Plus the aforementioned adjustment phase is still ongoing, with Boogie Cousins fitting into a new team. In truth, however, I don’t need to knock New Orleans to make a case for Miami, which has continued its hot streak well beyond the All-Star break and has catapulted Erik Spoelstra into Coach of the Year discussions. Heat on 21-5 SU and 22-4 spread runs ; interestingly, the four losses are vs. Magic (twice!), Sixers, Mavs and Pacers, with plenty of playoff teams falling victim. |
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03-15-17 | Akron +8 v. Houston | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, Akron naturally is “bummed” it’s not going dancing following its 70-65 upset loss to Kent State in the MAC tourney title game. But the Zips’ savvy 13th-year HC Keith Dambrot will have his squad ready to bring its “A” game, as he did in a similar situation a year ago. In 2016, Akron suffered a taut 64-61 loss to Buffalo in the conference championship, but then gave favored Ohio State a tough tussle in Columbus in a 72-63 OT defeat in the first round of the NIT. The Zips own the No. 1 big man on this floor in 6-10, 295- lb. sr. C Isaiah Johnson, who was selected the MAC Player of the Year. The G-oriented Cougs, featuring 6-2 Rob Gray, Jr. (20.3 ppg), tailed off down the stretch, going just 1-5 their last 6 vs. the spread. U of A capable of quickly narrowing a deficit, canning 10.2 triples pg (7th nationally) at 37.4%. |
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03-15-17 | Belmont +7 v. Georgia | 78-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Uptempo, good-shooting Belmont (77.4 ppg; 47.3% from the field; drills10 triples pg), under the guidance of 18th-year HC Rick Byrd, should be fully re-charged after playing its last game back on March 3. So points worth considering with the experienced Bruins, who won 18 of their last 20 games. Belmont, which hung tough at Rhode Island and was fairly combative at Vandy and vs. Florida (game played in Tampa) this year, should keep it close in Athens, where Georgia is a “costly” 2-9 as chalk in 2016-17. The Dawgs’ primary big, 6-8 jr. F Yante Maten, will have no picnic down low vs. the Bruins’ tough defender, 6-8 F Amanze Egekeze (11.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg). Meanwhile, Belmont’s electric 6-7 sr. F Evan Bradds (20.6 ppg; 63% FGs; 61 assists) can score in a variety of ways or pass out of a double-team. Take. |
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03-14-17 | Kansas State v. Wake Forest +2 | 95-88 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First meeting. KSU (11) owns more Big Dance experience, having gone to the NCAA tourney in 3 of the past 5 campaigns. However, prefer rapidly-maturing, high-octane Wake Forest (11), averaging 82.7 ppg under third-year HC Danny Manning, who’s quite familiar with the Wildcats, having been a star at rival Kansas during his illustrious college career. KSU’s 3-G attack will have trouble coping with the Deacons’ budding NBA prospect, 6-10 soph John Collins (19.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.6 bpg), while K-State’s smallish 6-0 soph G Kamau Stokes will be hard-pressed to bother WF’s rangy, 6-3 soph backcourt duo of Keyshawn Woods (12.8 ppg, 3.5 apg) and/or Byrant Crawford (15.8 ppg, 5.4 apg, 1.9 spg). Manning’s crew, representing the nation’s premier hoop league, learned how to “finish” down the stretch, as evidenced by its impressive 88-81 home upset over L’Ville and an 89-84 roadwin at Virginia Tech in early March. Plus, the resilient Deacons are a solid 8-2 vs. the spread following a SU loss this term. |
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03-14-17 | Indiana v. Georgia Tech +3 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units According to my rankings, this clash figures as a pick ‘em game. So I recommend grabbing 3 points or so with hard-nosed, defensively-fierce GT (yielding 66.8 ppg; 39.8% from the field; 15th nationally), which went 9-5 vs the spread at home. Weak-traveling Indiana, which was only 2-8 SU as a visitor TY (0-4 as traveling chalk!), yielded a whopping 79 ppg away from Bloomington. The fast-paced Hoosiers will be discouraged to consistently drive in the lane vs. the Yellow Jackets’ shotswatting fiend, 6-10 jr. C Ben Lammers (14.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg), who ranks third nationally in bpg (3.25). IU continues to miss the services of injured 6-8 soph forward OG Anunoby, while GT’s highly-decorated 6-4 frosh G Josh Okogie (15.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) is eager to out-duel Hoosier star G James Blackmon Jr. |
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03-14-17 | College of Charleston v. Colorado State -4.5 | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While both sorrowful squads lost in their conference title games, it might a be more difficult for Charleston to rebound while making its longest road trip of the season, to Fort Collins. The soft-boarding Cougars (-1.2 rebound margin) will get precious few second chance opportunities vs. CSU’s springy 6-8 sr. F Emmanuel Omogbo, who was tied for 7th nationally with 20 double-doubles. The depth-shy Rams own the No. 1 “money” performer in this one in dazzling 6-4 sr. G Gian Clavell (20.3 ppg), who should boost his profitable squad to a noteworthy 19-10 pointspread mark after this anticipated victory. The defensively-improved Rams can afford to collapse in the paint area, since Charleston connects on only 6.1 triples pg (291st nationally) at just 33.0% (271st). |
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03-14-17 | Oakland +11 v. Clemson | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No question, Clemson was a “tough out” in the talent-rich ACC in 2016-17. Still, however, reluctant to lay DDs to dangerous, high-octane Horizon League rep Oakland (79.4 ppg), which is well-equipped to (College Forecast Continued on next page) trade most of the way. The Golden Grizzlies showed virtually no drop-off away from home (80 ppg at home, 75 away; yielded 71 ppg both home & away), going 9-2 SU as a visitor. Moreover, Oakland’s super-steady 6-7 jr. F Jalen Hayes (16.2 ppg, 8.9 rpg) can go toe- to-toe with the Tigers’ primary weapon, 6-7 sr. F Jaron Blossomgame. Plus, CU won’t easily find a groove on the attack end vs. the aggressive Grizzlies, who rank in the top 20 nationally in both blocks (5.2 pg) and steals (8.1 pg). |
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03-14-17 | Pacers -3 v. Knicks | 81-87 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have beaten the Pacers in 2 of 3 this season, but New York has not been able to put together a meaningful win streak since Thanksgiving time. Or make that any win streak, as the Knicks haven’t won two in a row SU since just before Christmas! Indeed, only the Nets and Lakers have had worse SU marks since Xmas. So not much of a stretch to prefer Indiana, especially since Paul George has recently busted out of his mini slump and the Pacers have regained some traction with recent wins over the Rockets, Hawks, and Pistons to solidify their spot in the East playoff queue. |
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03-14-17 | Ole Miss v. Monmouth -1.5 | 91-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In what shapes up as a wide-open, fastpaced affair, I prefer to lay a small number with high-powered MAAC rep Monmouth (81.2 ppg), which has compiled an impressive 55-14 SU mark over the last 1+seasons, including upsets over UCLA, Notre Dame, Southern Cal (in 2015-16) and Memphis, plus a near-miss in its 70-69 OT loss at South Carolina this season. The Hawks’ 6-10 sr. C Chris Brady (9.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg; 57 blocks) can provide some resistence for Ole Miss’s main frontliner 6-9 sr. F Sebastian Saiz, while lethal Monmouth Gs 5-8 sr. Justin Robinson, even without injured backcourt mate Micah Seaborn, will do plenty of business vs. a permissive Rebel defense, permitting 77 ppg away. Ole Miss’ sole marquee triumph as a visitor came in its 81-74 upset at Vandy in early February |
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03-14-17 | Valparaiso v. Illinois -8.5 | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Though Illinois just fired 5th-year HC John Groce (asst. Jamall Walker is the interim HC), I still prefer to lay single digits vs. shorthanded Valpo, missing injured 6-9 NBA prospect Alec Peters (23 ppg; 8th nationally). Illini 6-6 sr. G Malcolm Hill (16.8 ppg, 3.0 apg) will be eager to atone for a season-worst 1 of 8 from the field in his team’s unsightly 75-55 setback vs. Michigan in the 1st round of the Big Ten tourney. Prior to the aforementioned dismissal of its HC, Illinois had played a bit better down the stretch, covering its final two home games in victories over Northwestern & Michigan State. Note that Illini sr. G Tracy Abrams had his best scoring performance (23, on 9 of 12 from the field vs. the Wolverines) since Dec. 10. |
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