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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-15 | Massachusetts +3 v. UCF | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Central Florida is coming off a blowout win on Saturday against Illinois-Chicago to get to .500 for the first time this season while improving to a perfect 5-0 ATS on the season. UCF had fewer turnovers than their opponent for the first time this season, forcing the Flames to give up the ball 16 times throughout the game. The Knights have a big revenge game on deck against Florida Atlantic where it lost by 13 points just about a year ago to the day. Massachusetts is coming off its second loss of the season and both defeats have come against quality opposition in Mississippi and Creighton. The Minutemen have an exceptional backcourt as they have three perimeter players averaging 17 or more ppg. That will severely hurt the Knights which are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game. Additionally, the Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (513) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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12-08-15 | Princeton v. St. Joe's -3.5 | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Princeton is coming off its first loss of the season as it got thumped by 14 points at Stony Brook, clearly a very bad loss against an inferior opponent. The Tigers have yet to play anyone worthwhile and while St. Joe's is no elite power team, it represents their toughest test to date. The Hawks come in at 5-2 and they have defeated the teams they should beat while losing to Villanova and Florida. Two key things St. Joe's is doing well over last year's 13-18 team is it is converting free throws at a higher rate and limiting turnovers. The Hawks have converted over 70 percent from the line in five of seven games and they are ranked 17th in the nation and third in the A-10 in assist/turnover ratio with 1.39. The Hawks have covered six straight home games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 while going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Ivy League. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. 10* (520) St. Joseph's Hawks |
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12-05-15 | Illinois-Chicago +14 v. UCF | Top | 58-88 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Here we have the perfect contrast between two teams that is inflating the line to a drastic measure. Central Florida, despite a 2-3 record, has yet to lose against the number as it is a perfect 4-0 ATS. The three straight up losses have been very tight so the record could be better. On the other side, Illinois-Chicago has just one win in five tries and it is 0-4 ATS in its four lined games. The Flames are coming off a poor season and arte now with a new coach and not much is expected this season. However, this line is certainly in their favor and we can go back to last season as an example. Illinois-Chicago was a favored by 1.5 points last season at home and now the line has shifted 15.5 points since then and there is no way these two teams have gone that much apart from each other. Going back, the Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home while the Knights are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (777) Illinois-Chicago Flames |
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12-05-15 | Southern Illinois v. North Texas +7 | Top | 95-63 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Southern Illinois is off to a surprising 7-1 start but the schedule has been pretty tame and in its favor. The Salukis have played only one true road game and that was against lower level Sam Houston St. of the Southland Conference and it took overtime to win. There was a lot of turnover for Southern Illinois from last season so they have to be happy with the start but laying a big number on the road is overaggressive. North Texas is no elite team and it has yet to cover a game this season but those situations were all different. Two road games against Northern Iowa and Utah were blowouts against power teams and in three home games, they were favored in all and two resulted in losses by a bucket. Now the Mean Green are a big home underdog and we will grab the generous number. Going back, the Salukis are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games while the Mean Green are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (782) North Texas Mean Green |
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12-02-15 | VCU v. Middle Tennessee +5 | Top | 62-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee St. had an unusually tough season a year ago but the Blue Raiders had lost four starters from a team that went 24-9. Now they are much more experienced as they bring back five of their top six scorers with all six of those players having started at least nine games. The Blue Raiders are off to a 4-1 start which is already a third of their entire win total from last season and the best part is that they have yet to play a game on their home floor. Fresh off the Great Alaska Shootout title, Middle Tennessee St. has been one of the best home teams in the country over the last four years and hold a 57-8 record in the Murphy Center. VCU has won two straight games since a pair of losses against Wisconsin and Duke by a combined nine points, both of which came on a neutral floor at MSG. The Rams are now playing their first true road game of the season and it is a totally different experience for new head coach Will Wade who took over for Shaka Smart. The team is solid but a lot of key players departed when Smart took off which makes the first road game not ideal. 10* (544) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders |
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12-01-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Nebraska +6.5 | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
After a great 2013-14 season where it finished fourth in the Big Ten and went to the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska had a miserable season last year where they won just 13 games overall including only five within the conference. With some key pieces now gone, some may think there is a complete rebuild in Lincoln but some of those departed pieces should actually make this a better team going forward. Nebraska is off to a 5-2 start with losses at No. 8 Villanova and against No. 17 Cincinnati on a neutral floor so at least the losses were quality. The Huskers are 4-0 at home and even more importantly, they had a long time to gel over the summer as they went on a trip to Spain where they went 4-0 and were granted numerous extra practices. Miami jumped from unranked into the top 15 following blowout wins over Mississippi St., Utah and Butler but then followed that up with a home loss against Northeastern this past Friday. This is the Hurricanes first true road game of the season and Pinnacle Bank Arena is a very underrated home court advantage as the Huskers are 29-7 here the last two plus season including a 16-2 record against non-conference opponents. Going back, the Huskers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after playing a game as an underdog while going 7-0 in its last seven home games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. 10* (750) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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11-30-15 | LSU -5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
LSU is 3-2 after losses last week by one point to Marquette and in overtime to NC State in neutral court games in Brooklyn. Expectations are high for the Tigers with five star freshman Ben Simmons already off to a fantastic start while another freshman, Antonio Blakeney, is the leading scorer at 16.6 ppg. The big issue for LKSU is that it is living and dying by the three-pointer and that is going to change tonight based on the gameplan head coach Johnny Jones wants to incorporate. The Tigers need more penetration for easier shots which would also get them to the free throw line more. College of Charleston is also 3-2 and while a one-point loss at Davidson was a quality one, a home loss against Coastal Carolina was not. The Cougars were one of the lowest scoring teams in the country last season and while their average is up, they have scored just 61 and 57 points the last two games. After finishing 9-24 last season, they are predicted t once again finish last in the CAA as this team is extremely young. College of Charleston is 9-22 in its last 31 games against winning teams and 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games at home. LSU meanwhile is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against winning teams while going 19-7-2 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. 10* (521) LSU Tigers |
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11-29-15 | Boise State v. Arizona -4 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Arizona lost in a stunner against Providence in the second round of the Wooden Classic following an overtime win over Santa Clara in the first round and it gets a rare opportunity to beat up on a non-conference opponent for a second time early on in the season. The Wildcats hosted Boise St. 10 days ago and defeated the Broncos by 12 points and while that game was at home, the circumstances here call for Arizona to win big again. Boise St. is off to a 3-3 start following a win over Cal-Irvine and a 10-point loss to Michigan St. in the first two rounds. They have a very strong home floor where they are 2-0 but are just 1-3 outside of Taco Bell Arena and their leader, Anthony Drmic, was held to just nine points in the first meeting against Arizona. The defense has been pretty bad for the Wildcats and the day off Saturday should have this team energized for a big effort. The line is on our side here thanks to conflicting runs where Boise St. is 4-0 ATS in its last four games while Arizona is 0-4 ATS in its last four games. That also leads to a great college hoops situation where we play on favorites after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games going up against an opponent after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. This situation is 83-40 ATS (67.5 percent) since 1997 including 22-6 ATS (78.6 percent) the last three seasons. 10* (742) Arizona Wildcats |
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11-28-15 | St. Louis +15.5 v. Louisville | Top | 57-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
One look at this line and you would think that Louisville comes in as the more experienced team while St. Louis is the green team. It is just the opposite actually and we are catching a very big line here and one in which name is playing a big role. Louisville is off to a 4-0 start with all four games being blowout victories but even though the Cardinals are listed on the bottom, this is a neutral court game in Brooklyn. They bring back just 17 percent of their scoring from last year and only two players have been on the team for more than one season. Meanwhile, St. Louis is also 4-0 and despite an 11-21 record including a 3-15 record in the A-10, things are looking up as the Billikens have four starters back and were able to use a summer trip to get in a lot of extra work. They fall into a sensational situation as we play on teams coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season. This situation is 32-7 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (541) St. Louis Billikens |
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11-28-15 | UCF v. Miami (OH) -2 | Top | 63-64 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
At 3-3, Miami looks to get back over .500 since starting the season 2-1 and it is in good position to do so. The RedHawks have gotten off to an inconsistent start which is a surprise considering the experience of this team that includes eight seniors. There is plenty of depth as they have nine players averaging at least 13 minutes and there is plenty of balance with seven of the top eight scorers from last season back once again. UCF is off to a 1-2 start and while it looked strong in a five-point loss at Davidson, a home loss against Cal Irvine was not a good one and then it took the Knights a big second half against UNC-Greensboro to pull away. Still, they are 3-0 ATS and that is keeping this number within reach along with the fact that Miami has yet to cover a game when favored. The RedHawks fall into a favorable spot where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 63 and 67 ppg going up against teams allowing between 67 and 74 ppg, after a combined score of 110 points or less. This situation is 56-24 ATS (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (522) Miami-Ohio RedHawks |
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11-27-15 | USC v. Xavier -1.5 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Give credit to USC as it is off to a 5-0 start for the first time since beginning the 2000-01 campaign 8-0. The Trojans upset Wichita St. on Thursday but the Shockers are overvalued this season as they already have a loss to Tulsa as well. USC was expected to be much improved but now comes another big teat. Xavier is also 5-0 and excluding the one true road game where it was an underdog, and won outright, the Musketeers have been favored by double-digits in all of their other games. They are loaded again this year with a very deep and experience roster and we definitely saw that yesterday. Xavier has covered five of its last six games against winning teams and the fact that USC has covered all five games is giving us excellent value with this low number. 10* (742) Xavier Musketeers |
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11-26-15 | Evansville +2.5 v. Providence | Top | 64-74 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Providence on paper should be a much bigger favorite in the eyes of many based on the name factor but in reality, I question if the Friars should even be the favorites. They have one of the best point guards in the nation in Kris Dunn but the cupboard is kind of bare after that. The loss of LaDontae Henton is huge and only one other starter is back besides Dunn, forward Ben Bentil. Evansville has not lost since the semis of the MVC Tournament last season as an invite to the CIT catapulted into a championship of any kind for the first time in program history. The Purple Aces have now won eight straight games and they have eyes on a bigger prize this season. They have all five starters back from last season and eight of their top nine scorers return from that 24-12 team. This includes the all-conference inside-outside duo of Egidijus Mockevicius and D.J. Balentine. This is the biggest test of the season but one it should pass with no issues. Evansville has a solid situation here as well as we play on teams that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, with three or more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (523) Evansville Purple Aces |
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11-25-15 | Michigan +3 v. Connecticut | Top | 60-74 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Last season was a rare downer for Michigan as it went just 16-16 overall following a run of very successful seasons. Injuries played a big role in the struggles but now at full strength, the Wolverines have the potential for another big run. Michigan is loaded as it brings back 92.5 percent of its scoring, 90 percent of its rebounding and 96.3 percent of its assists which includes all five starters coming back. They are coming off an embarrassing home loss against Xavier as they were crushed on the boards which makes this a great bounceback spot. Connecticut is off to a 3-0 start but has defeated no one along the way but is favored here because of the Michigan loss and the fact that is ranked 18th in the country. The Huskies bring back a solid roster as well but the loss of Ryan Boatright is a huge one. The Wolverines are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home and they bounce back again here. 10* (755) Michigan Wolverines |
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11-24-15 | Murray State v. Pepperdine -2.5 | Top | 59-55 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
**6:00 PM ET start** Murray St. will be a pretty popular pick here based on name. The Racers have been the best team in the OVC for years and are coming a season where they went 18-0 in the conference, part of a solid 29-6 season. They are expected to win the conference again because of the overall weakness of it but the same type of domination likely will not happen. Murray St. is breaking in another head coach after Steve Prohm left to take the job at Iowa St. and more importantly, the Racers lost four starters. This included Cameron Payne who was a first round NBA draft pick as well as two other double-digit scorers. Pepperdine easily defeated a very good Duquesne team on Monday to move to 2-2 on the season. The losses have come against UCLA and Fresno St., two conference contenders and they are far from bad losses. People may be surprised that the Waves are favored here but this is a team that is trending the right way as they have increased their win total in each of the last four years, culminating with an 18-14 record last season including a 10-8 mark in the WCC. Pepperdine is predicted to finish third in the conference this season behind Gonzaga and BYU so things are going very good in Malibu. The Waves have all five starters back and are very balanced as evidenced by all five starters scoring in double-figures yesterday. 10* (526) Pepperdine Waves |
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11-23-15 | St. John's v. Vanderbilt -16 | Top | 55-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
**2:30 PM ET Start** The Maui Invitational gets elite programs every year and the 2015 edition is no different. Two years ago when the teams were announced, it looked even more stacked with a St. John's team that was finally heading in the right direction and was ready to be significant again. Sadly, the Red Storm are trending in the wrong direction once again. St. John's comes in with a 3-0 record but records are deceiving as those three wins came against some very poor teams and now they take a big step up in competition. New head coach Chris Mullin was a great hire but with just three players are back from last year, none of which are starters and averaged a combined 4.0 ppg, he has a long road ahead of him. Vanderbilt is also 3-0 but much more experienced and one of the best shooting teams in the nation. The Commodores are not sneaking up on anyone as they come in ranked No. 17 in the nation and while this line seems big, the gap in talent is huge. We play against underdogs in a game involving two teams who had winning percentages between .600 and .800 from last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (744) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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11-22-15 | George Mason +19 v. Virginia | Top | 66-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
After getting stunned against George Washington, Virginia has bounced back nicely here in Charleston with a pair of blowout victories against Bradley and Long Beach St. The Cavaliers will be going for the Charleston Classic championship tonight but they are laying a huge number against a team that has already picked up two upset wins. George Mason opened the season with a home loss against Colgate and then a loss at Mercer but somehow regrouped and defeated Mississippi and Oklahoma St. in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Patriots are coming off a miserable season a year ago where they went 9-22 which led to the firing of head coach Paul Hewitt and the hiring of Dave Paulsen who comes over from Bucknell where he had a lot of success. This is an experienced team that features five players that started a combined 149 games. Buying into the new system was necessary and it looks as though that is already taking shape. George Mason has a great situation in its favor as we play on neutral court teams as an underdog after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, George Mason is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games away from home after playing a game as an underdog while the Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. 10* (539) George Mason Patriots |
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11-21-15 | New Mexico +6.5 v. USC | Top | 82-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
We won with USC opening night as the Trojans dominated San Diego in a 38-point victory. They had a great matchup there and while they followed that up with a victory in their next game against Monmouth, it was much less impressive as the defense allowed double the points, going from 45 to 90. USC remains home again but gets its biggest test of the season with New Mexico coming to town and the home court edge is insignificant with under 6,000 fans showing up for those first two games combined. The Lobos are off to a 3-0 start and while this is also the biggest test, they already have a road win to their credit against rival New Mexico St. They struggled last season, going just 15-16 but they lost a lot from the previous season and injuries also did not help as 52 games were lost between five players. They were offensively challenged but those issues are in the past now as they are ranked eighth in the nation in shooting percentage at 54.7 percent. New Mexico has always been relevant but the problems last season have them under the radar going into this year and while USC is not an elite program, this would be a big win going forward. The Trojans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games while the Lobos are 41-19-1 ATS in their last 61 games following a win of more than 20 points. 10* (735) New Mexico Lobos |
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11-20-15 | Penn State v. Duquesne -2 | Top | 52-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Duquesne is off to a 2-0 start with blowout wins over Seton Hill and New Orleans and while those were not big tests, the sizable victories are important. The Dukes had a rough season a year ago as they were 12-19 overall and as inexperienced as they were then, they are very experienced now. Four starters are back including three seniors, two of which have played in every game throughout their careers. This is the fourth season for head coach Jim Ferry and he believes that Duquesne is ready to take the next step. At this early juncture in the season, the Dukes are one of the fastest 75 teams in Division I, measured by possessions per game, while the Nittany Lions are one of the most plodding, rated as the 11th slowest. Penn St. is also 2-0 but has been nearly as dominant, granted against slightly better opposition. Still, this is a team in transition. The Nittany Lions lost All-Big Ten guard D.J. Newbill, lost another starter and then lost a potential starter that decided to transfer. Duquesne lost by just two points at Penn St. last season and that loss has lingered and will certainly have them motivated tonight. The better, more experienced team is laying just a bucket and we will be all over it. 10* (530) Duquesne Dukes |
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11-19-15 | Iowa -1.5 v. Marquette | Top | 89-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Oakland came through last night as the experience factor paid off and we go a similar route tonight. Iowa is coming off a 22-12 season that was filled with many feats that had not happened in a while as the Hawkeyes went 12-6 in the Big Ten, their best conference record in nearly a decade, and they had their longest conference winning streak in nearly two decades. Iowa went 7-3 on the road last season so coming in here is not an issue, especially with four starters back from last season's successful team. It was a tough year for Marquette as it went 13-19 overall in the first season for head coach Steve Wojciechowski. Lack of experience was a big issue as many players were lost from the previous season but going forward, there is not a whole lot of it again this season. There is not one scholarship senior on the roster so it should take some time for this team to come together. The Golden Eagles lost to Belmont to pen the season, albeit a very good Bruins team, but nearly losing to Indiana-Purdue on their home floor should never take place. Iowa faces its toughest team to date but the fact that it has blown out its opponent in the first two games shows it is in better shape. The Hawkeyes have a solid experience situation as we play on teams coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (723) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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11-18-15 | Eastern Michigan v. Oakland -8 | Top | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a game where expereience and team chemistry comes into play. Eastern Michigan is coming off a win in its season opener but that was against Vermont and it took a big second half to get it done after the Eagles trailed at halftime. This is the first test for Eastern Michigan in what is expected to be trying season, at least early on. The Eagles lost four starters from last season which was the second straight that registered 20 or more wins, the first time in two decades that has happened. While the one starter back is Raven Lee, who led the MAC in scoring last season with 16.7 ppg, he will not be suited up tonight as he has been suspended six games for a violation of team rules. Oakland is playing its first game of the season tonight which is definitely an advantage as the Eagles have nothing to look at. The Golden Grizzlies took a team trip to Spain in August where they went 3-0 but more importantly, got a chance to get early work in and bond. Oakland has five of their top seven scorers back this season and should greatly improve upon their 16-17 record from a season ago. They opened 0-4 and one of those losses came in Ypsilanti, with Eastern Michigan rolling by 12 points so Oakland should be extra fired up for its first game of the season. A great situation arises as we play on favorites with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season. This situation is 168-94 ATS (64.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (530) Oakland Golden Grizzlies |
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11-17-15 | Colorado v. Auburn -1.5 | Top | 91-84 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
**3:00 PM ET start** Auburn made a very surprising run in the SEC Tournament last season until fatigue finally caught up to the Tigers as they were eliminated by Kentucky. It was a solid end to Bruce Pearl's fist season at Auburn and he is expecting this year to be much better. He truly thinks he has an NCAA Tournament bound team and while that may be pushing it, this will be an improved team despite losing three starters. Auburn brought in the No. 28 recruiting class in the nation and that did not even include transfer T.J. Dunans, who was the top ranked JUCO prospect in the nation. After three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, Colorado slipped mightily last season, finishing with just 16 victory and an early exit in the CBI Tournament. Injuries hurt the Buffaloes and there is plenty to replace this season on offense and the defense was very poor. Colorado lost its opening game against Iowa St., which took place in South Dakota, and now hits the road for its first true road game against a very motivated team. A year ago to the day, Auburn went to Boulder and got crushed by 31 points so the Tigers will be out to avenge that loss today. 10* (722) Auburn Tigers |
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11-14-15 | Fordham v. Texas-Arlington -1.5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
College hoops teams are granted the rights to take an overseas exhibition trip once every four years and it can be a huge advantage for some teams, especially those that do not have a big returning nucleus. That is the case for UT-Arlington which lost its top four scorers from last season but headed out to the Bahamas in August for some early work and went 4-0 in four exhibition games, winning those by an average of 39 ppg. It should be noted that the best Mavericks team of late, the 2011-12 Southland Conference Championship team, also went out on a summer international trip. It has been a rough stretch for Fordham which went 44-106 over the last five seasons that led to the firing of head coach Tom Pecora. If that wasn't bad enough, Eric Paschall, the 2014-15 A-10 Rookie of the Year transferred out to Villanova after that so there is not a whole lot for new head coach to Jeff Neubauer to work with. The Rams have been notoriously horrible on the road, going just 6-60 over that aforementioned five-year stretch and the fact they are getting just under a bucket here means an outright loss likely means a non-cover as well. 10* (528) UT-Arlington Mavericks |
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11-13-15 | San Diego v. USC -11.5 | Top | 45-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
It was another tough season for USC last year as the Trojans went just 12-20 including 3-15 in the Pac 12 but they should have the biggest turnaround of any team in a the very competitive conference. Injuries derailed USC last season but now the team is healthy and it brings back its entire nine-man rotation while bringing in highly touted big men Chimezie Metu and Bennie Boatwright. Even though they were beat up last year, nine of USC's 20 losses last season were either by five points or less or in overtime. San Diego is coming off a decent 15-16 season but this team is basically starting from scratch. New head coach Lamont Smith returns to him alma mater with very little as he inherits just two returning starters, neither of which were very productive. Jito Kok and Duda Sanadze averaged just 5.1 ppg and 6.6 ppg respectively so there is very little returning scoring. Gone are Johnny Dee (2,046 points) and Christopher Anderson (757 assists) which finished their four year careers as San Diego's all time leaders in career points and assists respectively. This season's USC roster will feature players with 209 starts compared to just 52 last season and this experience will carry the Trojans to a big season opening win tonight. 10* (756) USC Trojans |
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04-06-15 | Wisconsin v. Duke | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
This wasn't the expected National Championship matchup but when two No. 1 seeds, square off, you know they certainly belong here. Wisconsin ended Kentucky's undefeated season with a seven-point victory which came after Duke easily took care of Michigan St. after a slow start. There's just one thing Michigan St. couldn't provide which is a realistic sense of what Duke can expect on Monday night. Granted, these teams met earlier in the season but that was four months ago and we can chalk that one up as an aberration. In the first meeting, Duke put up 80 points in a 10-point win in Madison during the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The Badgers haven't allowed 80 points to anyone else this season and they haven't allowed another team to shoot 65 percent from the field including 71 percent in the second half which Duke accomplished. How good has Wisconsin been since then? The Badgers have lost only once with Frank Kaminsky in the lineup (he missed the Rutgers game because of a concussion) and that loss at Maryland was easily their worst offensive performance of the season. In that first meeting, Jahlil Okafor had only 13 points and six rebounds which says something about the Badgers interior, but Duke had three players in double figures, including since-dismissed Rasheed Sulaimon. And that is a big loss here. Look for the Badgers to get their revenge and win their first National Championship since 1941. 10* (601) Wisconsin Badgers |
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04-04-15 | Wisconsin v. Kentucky -5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
Notre Dame cashed for us Saturday against Kentucky and nearly pulled off the upset but I believe that only helps Kentucky going forward. The Wildcats survived the scare by playing a pretty average game even though they shot 53.2 percent from the floor but managed just 47 shots including only eight from long range. Wisconsin will want to slow things down as well but Kentucky's length and athleticism could present problems for the Badgers. These teams met in the National Semifinals last season and Aaron Harrison drained a game-winning three-pointer with five seconds remaining so Wisconsin wants payback but this time of year, we can throw revenge right out the door as it means little. Kentucky has plenty of motivation and while the Badgers are a better team than last year, the Wildcats are much better than last year's version which is stating the obvious with their 38-0 record. Wisconsin has been an underdog only once all season which happened to be its last game against Arizona so while it is now seeing its biggest number of the season, it will prove to not be enough. I'm all about rooting for the upset but I don't see it happening as the Wildcats should run away with this one. 10* (822) Kentucky Wildcats |
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03-31-15 | N.J.I.T. v. Northern Arizona -4.5 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
While the NIT takes center stage tonight, we are going with a play out west from the College Insider Tournament Semifinals. New Jersey Tech heads to Northern Arizona with the winner advancing to the championship game on Thursday. The Highlanders made headlines this season when they went to Michigan and pulled off the upset as a 23.5-point underdog but now looking back and how the Wolverines had a very off year, it was not as great as it seemed. It was still a big win for sure showing how they can win on the road but they also have some bad road losses to teams such as UMASS-Lowell, Holy Cross, LIU-Brooklyn and Dartmouth. Speaking of the road, New Jersey Tech must be wondering what it's like seeing that is has not played a road game since January 25th, a span of 10 straight games. Now it has to make its furthest trip of the season. Northern Arizona had a solid season in the Big Sky, finishing tied for third and it was an overtime game away from going to the conference tournament finals. The Lumberjacks are coming off a big home overtime win over Kent St. to get here which came after two road wins. They are 12-2 at home including wins in seven straight games. New Jersey Tech has covered six straight but the last three were at home and the first three were by getting 20 or more points. Northern Arizona is 13-4-2 ATS this season against opponents coming off a win. 10* (776) Northern Arizona Lumberjacks |
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03-29-15 | Gonzaga +3 v. Duke | Top | 52-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
While Saturday saw both No. 1 seeds advance into the Final Four, Sunday we will not see a top seed get it. The first game does not have a No. 1 seed and Duke, which is the last of three top seeds in the Elite 8, showed signs of definitely being beatable against Utah even though it was able to pull away and win comfortably. The Blue Devils were fortunate that the Utes were ice cold from long range as they went just 4-16 from behind the arc and on top of that, they outscored Utah 20-11 from the free throw line. Additionally, they were outrebounded 17-7 on the offensive glass and while all of this went their way Friday, it will not go their way tonight. Gonzaga has been a powerhouse in the WCC for years as it has steamrolled its opponents but has not ever made a Final Four. The Bulldogs came onto the scene in 1999 and made it to the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed. Despite making the tournament every year since then including being seeded fourth or better five times prior to this year, they have never gotten past this round. This season, they have lost only twice which came by three points each against BYU and Arizona yet Gonzaga was not given a No. 1 seed and the Bulldogs are out to prove that was a mistake. The best shooting team in the country final gets to cut down the nets. 10* (721) Gonzaga Bulldogs |
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03-29-15 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Louisville | Top | 76-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
This is as old school as it gets where many predicted Villanova and Virginia to be playing here but instead we have two of the best coaches squaring off for a berth to the Final Four. Michigan St. got past the two top seeds on its end of the brackets as it took out No. 2 seed Virginia last weekend and No. 3 seed Oklahoma on Friday. And it did so in two different ways as the Spartans were able to grind it out against the Cavaliers and then go fast against the Sooners and both ways worked which makes it tough for Louisville, even with Rick Pitino, to try and gameplan. On the other side, Louisville snuck by UC Irvine, defeated an overrated Northern Iowa team and had the fortunes to get to meet No. 8 seed NC State in the Sweet 16. Don't get me wrong, this is a quality team with a quality coach and we won with the Cardinals Friday but the run ends today. The best way to beat Louisville is to play strong defense as the Cardinals are not good on offense and do not have one player that can take over and shoulder the scoring responsibility if need be. The Spartans have held opponents to a 39.4 percent shooting this season including 33.1 percent in three tournament games. Michigan St. is 24-4 when giving up less than 70 points and Louisville hasn't scored 70 or more points in consecutive games since January. 10* (719) Michigan St. Spartans |
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03-28-15 | Notre Dame +11.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
After two subpar efforts to open the NCAA Tournament, we finally saw the Notre Dame team that we were expected to see as it opened up strong against Wichita St., withstood a Shockers rally and then pulled away late. This obviously will be a bigger test for Notre Dame which is making its first Elite 8 appearance since 1979 and while destiny is said to be on the other side, it is more so on the Irish sidelines. We made a poor call on West Virginia Thursday as it got destroyed by Kentucky as the Wildcats came out with some additional motivation after West Virginia freshman guard Daxter Miles Jr. guaranteed a win for the Mountaineers and they paid the price as the Wildcats intended on running up the score which they certainly did. They doubled them up but they will have some more difficulties against the efficient Irish. Beyond having one of the most efficient offenses in the country, three-point shooters and underrated toughness, the Fighting Irish believe and confidence goes a long way in playing a team as tough as Kentucky. Going 4-1 against Duke and North Carolina this season has them well equipped for the big stage. The key for Notre Dame is to keep it close early which many terms have not been able to do against Kentucky but the Irish actually have the team to do that. Kentucky's biggest test of the season happens now. 10* (511) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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03-28-15 | Arizona v. Wisconsin +1.5 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The favorites were the story on Friday as they won and covered all four games but I think that changes Saturday with this first game. Arizona will have the advantage of playing closer to home with this game taking place in Anaheim as well as the revenge factor after losing to the Badgers in overtime in the Elite Eight almost a year ago to the day. Both teams have gotten better since that battle 364 days ago and the Badgers are getting a little more respect this time around as they are getting a bucket less but I think it is still too much. The inside battle will play a big role in this outcome and if the Wildcats cannot contain Frank Kaminsky like they failed to do last season, they will be sent packing and Sean Miller will be denied his first ever Final Four. The inside is what has helped the Wildcats a lot this season with a lot of that coming from fouls and free throw attempts as they lead the nation with 944 attempts. Wisconsin is disciplined enough to keep that in control as its 12.1 fouls per game is the lowest in the country while allowing just 7.6 ppg from the stripe. While the oddsmakers expect a close one, after a poor performance against a fast paced team on Thursday, expect Wisconsin to pull away against a team it matches up much better against. 10* (514) Wisconsin Badgers |
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03-27-15 | Michigan State -1.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 62-58 | Win | 100 | 79 h 21 m | Show |
We are often being told how coaching plays such a big role in the NCAA Tournament and you can point to the Michigan St. sidelines for proof. A No. 7 seed, Michigan St. was not expected to do much but many thought it was underseeded after taking out Ohio St. and Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament before taking Wisconsin to overtime. And we are seeing that after an impressive win over Virginia. This is not even close to one of the top talented teams Michigan St. has brought to the Sweet 16 to what it makes for up in talent is hard work, preparation and execution. We played against Oklahoma on Sunday and were a bucket away from cashing but six games in 10 days caught up to the upstart Flyers as they blew a nine-point second half lead and now Oklahoma is back in the Sweet 16. This is a very experienced team that brought back four starters and they are one of only six teams to have the same five players start every game, very impressive. Head coach Lon Kruger is the first coach ever to take four different teams to a Sweet 16 which may sound impressive, but that is meaningless as Izzo could probably take twice as many if given the opportunity to move around. Michigan St. is favored for a reason here. 10* (879) Michigan St. Spartans |
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03-27-15 | NC State v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
In order beat No. 1 seed Villanova, NC State was going to have to either play a near perfect game or have the Wildcats put up one of their worst efforts. The latter came through as Villanova could not make anything, shooting just 31.1 percent from the floor including going 9-28 from long range and it still only lost by three points. The Wolfpack's defense is not that good as the Wildcats picked the wrong time to have one of their worst offensive games of the season. NC State has already defeated Louisville once this season and that came on the road by nine points as a double-digit dog. I don't see it happening again. After struggling against UC Irvine in the opener, the Cardinals easily took care of Northern Iowa from the start and they will get their chance at revenge. Even though Chris Jones, who is no longer on the team, scored nearly a third of Louisville's points, the Cardinals in a better place now without him and taking nothing away from NC State coach Mark Gottfried but having Rick Pitino on the other side is huge as he is one of the best postseason coaches around. Now, the Cardinals find themselves in the Sweet 16 for a program-record fourth straight year and we can't count them out for a third trip to the Final Four since 2012. 10* (878) Louisville Cardinals |
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03-27-15 | UCLA v. Gonzaga -8.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 76 h 20 m | Show |
If there is one team in this tournament that should be playing with a chip on its shoulder, it is Gonzaga. The Bulldogs came onto the scene in 1999 and made it to the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed. Despite making the tournament every year since then including being seeded fourth or better five times prior to this year, the Bulldogs have never gotten back to the Elite Eight. This season, they have lost only twice which came by three points each against BYU and Arizona yet Gonzaga was not given a No. 1 seed and the Bulldogs are out to prove that was a mistake. UCLA has made an improbable run to the Sweet 16 considering many thought the Bruins shouldn't even be here. They were fortunate to beat SMU and avoided a letdown against UAB which could not avoid its own letdown after defeating Iowa St. While the Bruins may or may not deserve to be here, the fact of the matter is that they are outclassed in this matchup. These teams played at UCLA back on December 13th and Gonzaga had no issues with the Bruins, winning by 13 points in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. Sure, UCLA will want revenge but it doesn't have the talent to do it. 10* (882) Gonzaga Bulldogs |
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