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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-05-17 | Minnesota v. Northwestern -4 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Minnesota came into the season with a ton of question marks as it lost a lot to graduation, rules violations and suspensions but so far, it has answered those questions. The Golden Gophers are off to a 13-2 start and coming off one of their most impressive wins in a while as they won at Purdue on Sunday in overtime. That came after a heartbreaking loss in overtime against Michigan St. prior to that. Those two big games coupled with the fact they have a big revenge game on Sunday against Ohio St. puts them in a very tough spot here. Northwestern is off to an equally solid start as it is 12-3 following a loss at Michigan St. on Friday which snapped a nine-game winning streak. The other two losses came against Notre Dame by four points and Butler by two points, both of which are 13-2, but both of those came away from home. The Wildcats are extremely deep while possessing arguably the top point guard in the conference in Bryant McIntosh and the return of Vic Law, who missed all of last season, has been huge. This is a big bounce back game and if the Wildcats want to make their first ever NCAA Tournament, these are the games that need to be won. 10* (752) Northwestern Wildcats |
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01-05-17 | California v. UCLA -10.5 | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The Bruins are laying a pretty big number here but this is a game they should win going away. UCLA opened the season 13-0 and climbed up to No. 2 in the nation after a big win at Kentucky but suffered a last second loss in Oregon last week. The Bruins bounced back with a 13-point win at Oregon St. two nights later and we can expect the home floor to be rocking tonight. They have failed to cover three straight after a nine-game ATS winning streak and that is adding some value to this number. UCLA will be out to avenge a 12-point loss at California last season as well. The Golden Bears are coming off a similar week last week where they lost at home against Arizona before bouncing back two nights later with a blowout win over Arizona St. they are off to a decent 10-4 start with the other three losses against pretty solid teams but after 14 games, this is their first true road game of the season. They are one of only four teams in the country that have yet to play a true road game. While solid defensively, the offense lacks the big scoring punch and facing one of the best offenses in the nations means they will not have the ability to play catch up. 10* (750) UCLA Bruins |
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01-05-17 | UAB -4.5 v. North Texas | Top | 54-52 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Both UAB and North Texas are winless to open C-USA play but this game means a lot more for the former. The Blazers are off to a 7-7 start after a 17-3 start a season ago and their seven losses have already matched their total defeats from all of last season. After getting upset in the C-USA Tournament and getting relegated to the NIT despite a 26-6 record, UAB planned on making a statement and came in as the favorite to win the conference. There is still plenty of time for that but coming off their worst effort of the season where the Blazers managed just 49 points at Middle Tennessee St. including only 23 points for the starters, they will be out for a big win tonight. North Texas is 0-2 in the conference with both losses coming on the road but there is no big home court edge for the Mean Green. They have defeated no team of significance and while the same can be said for UAB, the talent level disparity between these two teams is significant. The Blazers have not lost back-to-back games this season and are 6-0 following a defeat with those wins coming by an average of 17.3 ppg. 10* (747) UAB Blazers |
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01-04-17 | Virginia Tech v. NC State -1 | Top | 78-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
With a home upset over Duke on Saturday, Virginia Tech improved to 12-1 on the season and moved into the top 25. The Hokies have won eight straight games but now take to the road for the first time in over a month and while they have won their only other road game, the situation is a lot different this time around. This is the first time the Hokies have been ranked in either poll since the polls of Nov. 15, 2010 and this is the first time the Hokies have been 11 games over .500 since the 2010-11 season. NC State lost its ACC opener as it was routed at Miami which snapped a six-game winning streak. The Wolfpack are a perfect 9-0 at home and while this presents the biggest test at home of the young season, they catch the Hokies at the perfect time. After playing the first nine games of the season with at least one scholarship player missing, and sometimes two or three players missing, the Wolfpack have had their full complement of players for the last four games. Going back, they are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up loss. 10* (562) NC State Wolfpack |
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01-04-17 | Iowa State +8.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Iowa St. heads to Waco to try and hand Baylor its first loss of the season and these teams have played some solid games over the years. The Cyclones defeated Texas Tech on Friday to open Big XII action and extended their winning streak to three games. They have three losses on the season, one at rival Iowa which was not a pretty one, but the other two came by a point in overtime against Cincinnati and two points against Gonzaga. Baylor is one of only three remaining undefeated teams in the nation and the wins have been dominant for the most part. Ever since a non-cover in their season opener against Oral Roberts, they have reeled off seven straight covers including a blowout win at Oklahoma in their conference opener. Baylor has some big wins over big name teams this season but the cover streak is catching up as they are laying a bigger than expected number against a quality opponent. Going back, the Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite between 7.0 and 12.5 points while the Cyclones are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog between 7.0 and 12.5 points. 10* (567) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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01-04-17 | Georgetown v. Providence -2.5 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
After solid starts to the season, both Georgetown and Providence are trending in the wrong direction. The Hoyas had won six straight games prior to the Big East season but have dropped their first two games in the conference. They lost bad at Marquette and while they hung with Xavier, they gave it away at the end and that game was at home. Georgetown is 1-1 on the road with the lone win coming at slumping Syracuse. Providence is in a slump as well as it has dropped three straight games following its own six-game winning streak. The Friars three losses all took place on the road however and the last two, at Xavier and at Butler, came against two Big East contenders. Heading back home is just what they need where they are 9-0 on the season and are now laying a short number. The Friars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Hoyas are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (528) Providence Friars |
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01-03-17 | Wisconsin v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Indiana opened Big Ten play with a loss against Nebraska at home which was its first loss at Assembly Hall this season and it snapped a 26-game home winning streak dating back to the start of last season. The Hoosiers then followed that up with a loss against Louisville on Saturday by 15 points in Indianapolis so this sets them up for a big bounce back on Tuesday night and at a short price. Wisconsin won its Big Ten opener against Rutgers which was far from a quality win and now the Badgers hit the road for just the third time this season. They are 1-1 on the highway with a loss at Creighton and a win at Marquette. They have won eight straight games overall but quality wins have been few and far between as the win over the Golden Eagles was the best of the bunch as Oklahoma and Syracuse are having down seasons. Going back, the Hoosiers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS loss and fully expect them to bounce back again here. 10* (740) Indiana Hoosiers |
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01-01-17 | Drake v. Southern Illinois -7.5 | Top | 69-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
We played against Drake on Thursday and it did not pan out as the Bulldog pulled off the upset at home against Loyola-Chicago but we will go against them once again here as they hit the road in a bad situation. They have won two straight games but they are 0-3 on the road and going back, they have lost 26 of their last 27 road games which includes losses in 19 straight true road games. While taking down Wichita St. in the MVC may not happen by any team, Southern Illinois is expected to be a top-tier team in the conference. However, the Salukis lost their conference opener at Bradly on Thursday as road favorites but a return home should turn things around. The value here is based on the season opening conference games as Drake is getting nearly the same amount of points on the road than it was at home against the Ramblers. Going back, the Salukis are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite between 7.0 and 12.5 points while the Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win. 10* (742) Southern Illinois Salukis |
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12-31-16 | Villanova v. Creighton | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
Of the many marquee games on the schedule Saturday, Villanova and Creighton is the headliner and while many will think the home team has the edge, the Wildcats will prove why they are No. 1 in the nation. Villanova is coming off a scare from DePaul on Wednesday but it was pretty clear that the Wildcats were not focused at all and it almost cost them. That will not be the case here against the undefeated Bluejays. Creighton brings in an identical 13-0 record but only has one real quality win which came against Wisconsin in the second game of the season. In a game where the teams match up pretty well, free throws could be all the difference. Both schools are Top 25 nationally at keeping their opponents off the line, but once they get there Villanova has a massive advantage. The Wildcats are hitting 78.2 percent as a team which is good for No. 10 in the nation. Creighton on the other hand, is terrible at drawing fouls (230th) and even worse at making them count as they are shooting just 67.2 percent from the stripe which is No. 240 in the country. 10* (541) Villanova Wildcats |
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12-30-16 | USC +8.5 v. Oregon | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
While we like to fade teams on big winning streaks, fading teams coming off massive wins is a much better strategy and that comes into play on Friday. USC won its 14th straight game to start the season as it defeated Oregon St. on Wednesday to open Pac 12 play. While the Trojans have been winning, they have not been covering as they have dropped five straight games at the betting window. However, they have been favored by at least nine points in all of those games and now they are close to that number in an underdog role. USC has been an underdog only once this season and that resulted in an outright win at Texas A&M. We won with Oregon on Wednesday as it defeated UCLA on a last second three-pointer and because of that, the Ducks go from being a home underdog to a relatively big home favorite over a quality opponent. It is too big of a swing and the celebration that took place after the win over the Bruins shows the Ducks are in a prime letdown spot tonight. The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 while the Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. 10* (751) USC Trojans |
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12-29-16 | Loyola-Chicago -5.5 v. Drake | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Typically, not a proponent for laying points on the road but this is a good situation to do so in the MVC opener for both teams. Loyola has gotten off to a solid 10-3 start after winning just 15 games all of last season. While the Ramblers are just 1-2 on the road, those losses came by just six points combined and they were against two quality opponents in Toledo and NC State. The loss against the Rockets was their last game back on December 20 so they have had eight days to seethe on that defeat. Drake is off to a 2-10 start and this is no fluke as the Bulldogs were picked to finish last in the Missouri Valley Conference. The nonconference schedule was far from difficult but they have still had big troubles with the only two wins coming against non-Division I Simpson College and Mississippi Valley St. which has yet to win a game this season at 0-13. That win over the Delta Devils came in their last game so which it could give them confidence, it more likely will be a false sense of confidence. Drake won only two conference games last season and one came on this floor against Loyola in overtime in the final game of the regular season and the Ramblers have not forgotten. The Bulldogs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of fewer than seven points while the Ramblers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (533) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers |
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12-28-16 | UCLA v. Oregon +3 | Top | 87-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
UCLA remains No. 2 in the nation following a perfect 13-0 start in nonconference action. Now the real season starts and the Bruins will be tested right out of the gate in Pac 12 play. They defeated Kentucky in their lone road game this season so while that was impressive, they will not be sneaking up on Oregon like they did against the Wildcats. Oregon opened the season at just 2-2 but has won nine straight games since then. They hope to get Chris Boucher back tonight to help bolster the defense. Boucher has missed two games due to an ankle injury and will be a game-time decision Wednesday, though his recovery has been trending in a positive direction. Oregon is 6-1 all-time versus ranked foes in Matthew Knight Arena where it has now won 33 consecutive games, the third longest home winning streak in the nation. Going back, the Bruins are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of seven or fewer points while the Ducks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of seven or fewer points. 10* (762) Oregon Ducks |
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12-27-16 | Michigan State +6 v. Minnesota | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Michigan St. opened the season ranked No. 12 in the AP Poll but a brutal schedule has sent the Spartans clear out heading into conference play. They lost to Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor and Duke, all of which have two or fewer losses. Michigan St. also lost to Northeastern at home which is the only really bad blemish on the schedule. Minnesota falls into the category of a team with two or fewer losses however it has played a very soft schedule thus far. The only real quality win came against Arkansas but the records overall are playing a big factor in this line tonight. Michigan St. has held opponents under 40 percent shooting from the field in each of the last five seasons, including finishing second in the nation in field-goal percentage defense in 2012 (.379) and 2016 (.382). The strong defensive effort has carried over to 2016-17, as eight opponents have been held under 40 percent. Depth is also on the side of the Spartans as ten players average more than 10 minutes per game, while nine players have played in all 13 games. Michigan St. has covered five of seven games against teams with a winning record and going back, the Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (521) Michigan St. Spartans |
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12-23-16 | Georgia v. Oakland +1 | Top | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Even though we have a power conference against a non-power conference, the wrong team is favored in this one. Georgia is off to an 8-3 start and has won three straight games heading into its final nonconference game of the season. The Bulldogs are a very solid team and have split their two road games, a 10-point loss at Clemson and a 17-point win over rival Georgia Tech in their last game. That last win was not overly impressive as the Yellow Jackets are a team in complete rebuilding mode. Oakland got off to a very impressive 9-1 start but has dropped its last two games, an upset loss against Northeastern on Tuesday and then a loss at Michigan St. the next night in a rare back-to-back scheduling occurrence. The Golden Grizzlies are one of the top teams out of the Horizon League and have a chance to pick up a quality win before starting conference action next week. Oakland is on a three-game ATS slide which is helping with the value and going back, the Golden Grizzlies are 26-9-1 ATS in their last 36 games against teams with a winning straight up record. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. 10* (742) Oakland Golden Grizzlies |
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12-22-16 | LSU v. Wake Forest -8.5 | Top | 76-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Despite the loss of four of their top six scorers from last season including Ben Simmons and Keith Hornsby, the Tigers are off to a better start through 10 games this year than last year. LSU has won four straight games but all of those were at home where it is a perfect 7-0. The Tigers have hit the road only three times and those came in a three-day stretch in Nassau in the Battle 4 Atlantis last month where they went 1-2. Tonight makes it the first true road game of the season and they were not very good in this spot last season as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Wake Forest is 8-3 and it is a very respectable 8-3 as the Demon Deacons have done a lot of travelling thus far. They have played four true road games and three neutral court games including games against Villanova and Xavier. The last game was a roadie at Xavier and Wake Forest played very well in a four-point loss as it kept it close thanks to a big edge on the boards. The Demon Deacons have followed up their previous two losses with wins and covers while LSU is just 1-4-1 ATS following a win. 10* (532) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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12-21-16 | Western Michigan +30 v. UCLA | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
We played against UCLA on Saturday and while the Bruins ended up covering that game, Ohio St. was in it for the majority of the game until the very end. That made it nine straight covers for UCLA which is pretty much an unheard of run in college hoops but the line tonight is showing that the linesmakers have overadjusted. This is the final nonconference game of the season for the Bruins and while they are off for a week after this, the Pac 12 opener against Oregon has to have some of their attention. Western Michigan is off to a tough 3-7 start but it has played a tough schedule to this point. The Broncos have not lost a game by more than what they are getting tonight and this includes games against Villanova, UNC-Wilmington, Oakland, Boise St. and Washington, all of which have winning records. The last game came against the Huskies which resulted in a six-point loss on Sunday but the fact Western Michigan stayed out west is a big factor here as the travel aspect can be disregarded here. Pulling off the upset is not going to happen but staying within this inflated number will as the Broncos are already 2-0 ATS this season as double-digit underdogs. 10* (749) Western Michigan Broncos |
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12-20-16 | Northeastern v. Oakland -8 | Top | 61-59 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Northeastern is coming off a very impressive win as it upset Michigan St. on Sunday by eight points as a 10-point underdog. The short turnaround is not in the Huskies favor however as they stay in Michigan to face a very strong Oakland team. The win moved Northeastern to 6-5 on the season and while those five losses have come by just 17 points combined, they came against some suspect opposition. A loss to Harvard can be overlooked but defeats against Stony Brook, Cornell, LIU-Brooklyn and Boston University cannot. Those teams are a combined 18-25. Oakland meanwhile is off to a 9-1 start with its lone loss coming against a very solid Nevada team by just four points in Alaska as the Wolf Pack made six more three-pointers than the Golden Grizzlies. They will not be overlooking Northeastern here after its big win despite having their own game against Michigan St. on deck tomorrow night. The Golden Grizzlies have led by at least 13 points in every game this season and have only surrendered one second half lead. Oakland has only seen two second half deficits and have led for 190 of 200 minutes in the final 20 minutes. Going back, the Golden Grizzlies are 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (526) Oakland Golden Grizzlies |
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12-19-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Syracuse -12 | Top | 57-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
It has been a rough stretch for Syracuse which has gone 2-4 over its last six games after a 4-0 start. The latest setback came against rival Georgetown on Saturday and the difference came down to free throws as the Hoyas made eight more free throws than the Orange. Should Syracuse had won that game, the spread in this game might be a little higher but it would be a no play based on the possible letdown. Instead, the Orange will be out to make up for that and in a big way after suffering their first home loss of the season. Additionally, the Orange lost just their third nonconference home game over the last nine years and are now 78-3 in their last 81 nonconference home games. Eastern Michigan lost at Vermont on Saturday by eight points which was its second loss this season where no line was posted and those games should not be lost. That snapped a four-game winning streak and while they are 6-4, three of those victories came against non-division I teams. This is a good matchup for Syracuse to get its struggling offense in gear as Eastern Michigan likes to push the pace and that can lead to some easy transition baskets for the Orange. 10* (712) Syracuse Orange |
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12-18-16 | Georgia State v. Old Dominion -6 | Top | 46-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
Old Dominion is 5-4 but has played better than that record shows. The Monarchs lost in overtime against Louisville and then followed that up with a six-point loss the next day in a clear letdown spot. They are coming off a tough three-point loss against 8-3 VCU, their second straight loss so they will be out to rebound this afternoon. It has been a tough schedule thus far as not only has Old Dominion played some stiff competition but there has been a lot travel involved. This is the first time this season where the Monarchs have gotten to play back-to-back home games and this is just the fourth home game of the season. Going back, they are 34-5 in their last 39 games played at the Ted Constant Convocation Center. The Panthers enter the game with a 6-3 overall record, are 6-0 at home/on neutral hardwood, but 0-3 on the road. Losses against Auburn and Purdue were expected but Georgia St. has a winnable game at Mississippi St. but lost by 22 points. The Panthers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning straight up record while also going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of fewer than seven points. Meanwhile the Monarchs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS and 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (518) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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12-17-16 | Ohio State +9 v. UCLA | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
UCLA was expected to contend with Oregon and Arizona in the Pac 12 but not many saw what a terrific start it has begun. The Bruins are 11-0 and a win over Kentucky vaulted them to No. 2 in the country. There was no letdown from that though as they destroyed Michigan and UC-Santa Barbara as the offense hit triple-digits both times. Now they will be facing a very tough defense and will be putting their eight-game ATS winning streak on the line. Ohio St. shook off an embarrassing loss at home to Florida Atlantic with a win over Connecticut while its only other loss came at the hands of 8-1 Virginia on the road by just a bucket making that defeat to the Owls a real head scratcher. The Buckeyes returned all five starters and their top six scorers from last season and they currently have six players averaging at least 9.2 ppg. If this game was at Pauley Pavilion, it may be a different story but catching the Bruins in Las Vegas is a great opportunity to pull off a major upset. We will grab the generous points based on the UCLA spread run nonetheless. 10* (783) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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12-17-16 | Arkansas v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
Texas has had a roller coaster start to the season, similar to last season before it rallied late to make the NCAA Tournament. A return trip is expected however it already has four losses and cannot ill afford any more before conference action starts later this month. All four losses have come against teams that are 7-3 or better so at least there have been no non-quality defeats and a win here adds a solid quality win to the record. The Razorbacks are off to an 8-1 start but the schedule has been pretty tame thus far. Arkansas has traveled outside of Bud Walton Arena only once this season and that resulted in a 14-point loss in Minnesota and while this is a neutral court game, the Razorbacks are tough to be trusted laying points away from home. Many feel Texas is an overrated team but they play hard every game and give 110% percent to head coach Shaka Smart and the outright win is far from out of the question here. 10* (770) Texas Longhorns |
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12-17-16 | Texas Tech v. Richmond +4.5 | Top | 79-72 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
After suffering a pair of losses, Richmond bounce back with a win over Maryland-Baltimore County last Saturday and while that is far from a statement win, it was a much needed victory. That moved the Spiders back over .500 on the season and this would provide a must needed out of conference quality win. Texas Tech is 9-1 with the lone loss coming against Auburn in the first round of the Cancun Challenge. The Red Raiders have won six straight games since then but it is important to note that this is the first true road game for them this season and once it gets this late, it is a great angle to back. Richmond has lost two home games this season, one against a solid Old Dominion team and the other against Wake Forest which has turned into a pretty big rivalry. These teams met at Texas Tech last season and the Red Raiders prevailed by 15 points, setting up a big revenge situation in the rematch. 10* (722) Richmond Spiders |
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12-15-16 | Coastal Carolina +11.5 v. Auburn | Top | 72-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
On paper, Auburn looks to be the dominant team in this matchup based on the fact it comes from the SEC while Coastal Carolina is playing its first season in the Sun Belt Conference. This is not the case however as the Tigers are coming off a brutal loss against Boston College at MSG on Monday and will be shorthanded tonight. Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl has suspended sophomores Bryce Brown and Horace Spencer who were arrested for misdemeanor marijuana possession. Both were starters which averaged over 20 minutes per game and while their scoring averages are nothing great, it is the other things that will be missed. Brown is the best defender for the Tigers while Spencer is considered the best rebounder on the team. The Chanticleers, who currently rank 11th in the country and first in the Sun Belt Conference in rebounds (43.8) will present challenges similar to what the Tigers have already faced this year. Coastal Carolina is 5-6 overall and while it is 0-3 on the road, it has performed better of late with two straight covers as a double-digit underdog. The Tigers will have only six players available tonight that are averaging more than 10 minutes per game which is far from ideal. Coastal Carolina falls into a solid situation where we play on road teams in a game involving two up-tempo teams averaging 60 or more shots per game after two straight games allowing 37 percent shooting or less. This situation is 75-39 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (719) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers |
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12-14-16 | St. Louis v. Southern Illinois -11 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The St. Louis basketball program has slipped tremendously over the last couple years as it has gone from 27 wins in 2014 to just 11 wins in each of the last two seasons. It is expected to be another rough year and a 3-6 start to the season is looking like that will happen again. to the Billikens credit, they have lost to some very good teams but they have not been competitive for the most part as three losses have come by 30, 31 and 30 points. The problem now is the system as it does not fit with the players. Travis Ford is in his first season at St. Louis and he preached playing up-tempo but St. Louis has topped 60 points only once in its last five games and is shooting 38.2 percent on the season. A 45-43 win over 3-6 Chicago St. in its last game is nothing to get excited about. Southern Illinois should be pretty focused tonight following a pair of losses over the last week against Louisville and Sam Houston St. The Salukis are 5-5 but they are better than the record shows and this is the first lined game of the season against a team with a losing record. The Salukis are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while St. Louis is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 road games after playing a game as a road underdog while going 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (528) Southern Illinois Salukis |
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12-13-16 | Monmouth +3 v. Memphis | Top | 82-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This line jumps out as being a short price for Memphis and the public agrees as the Tigers are the biggest basketball consensus of the night. Well, it is short for a reason. Memphis is 7-2 to open the season including a 6-0 record at home and while it has a pair of decent wins over Iowa and UAB, this is the biggest home test of the season. While it is not a complete rebuilding project for Tubby Smith, who is in his first season with the Tigers, this could be a tough transitional period. Memphis has a dynamic player in Dedric Lawson who leads the team in scoring at 20.7 ppg, but there is not much after him. They have only seven players that are averaging double-digits in minutes played. Monmouth got snubbed last season for a spot in the NCAA Tournament and the mission this season is to not let that happen again. The Hawks won the MAAC regular season championship and had numerous quality non-conference wins but their 28-8 record was not good enough. They opened the season with losses against South Carolina and Syracuse but have won eight straight games since then and this is a big game because while quality wins are big for the future, avoiding non-quality losses are just as important. Monmouth has nine players averaging at least 10 minutes per game so this is a very deep and talented team. The Hawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog or pick while Memphis is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games coming off a home win over the last 2 seasons. 10* (721) Monmouth Hawks |
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12-12-16 | South Carolina v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
South Carolina is off to an 8-0 start and is currently ranked No 19 in latest AP Poll and this is looking a lot like last season. The Gamecocks started last season 15-0 including a 13-0 sweep in non-conference action but they really did not play anyone too strong and it showed once the SEC season started as they struggled to stay consistence. They have a pair of solid wins this season over Michigan and Syracuse but here comes the toughest test to date in my opinion. They will have to do it without leading scorer Sindarius Thornwell who has been suspended. Seton Hall is 7-2 following a 25-9 record last season that included a Big East Tournament Championship. The Pirates are coming off a tournament win in Hawaii and while this is not a true home game, it will feel like it being so close to their campus in New Jersey. They have a quality win at Iowa and while a loss to Stanford was bad, a five-point loss to Florida in the same tournament was not a bad one. Seton Hall has had to replace Isaiah Whitehead but four other starters returned as well as some strong incoming talent including four-start recruit Myles Powell, one of four players averaging double-digit scoring. Seton Hall is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 60 points or less and have a good matchup here to go along with a good line on top of it. 10* (520) Seton Hall Pirates |
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12-11-16 | Nevada v. Washington -4.5 | Top | 87-85 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Nevada is off to a solid 7-2 start and following a loss to Iona in the finals of the Great Alaska Shootout, the Wolf Pack have responded with a pair of double-digit wins over Bradley and Pacific. They have taken care of business at home in a big way with four blowout wins but hitting the road for a second straight game could be an issue considering they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog. They are without Elijah Foster however, who is third on the team in scoring and second in rebounding as he has been suspended for the last five games and remains out. Washington returns to Seattle for its first home game since November 22 and this is the perfect time. The Huskies have lost three straight games and none have been close as they dropped back-to-back games against TCU by 13 and 15 points and most recent, lost at Gonzaga by 27 points. Those losses should put a spark into Washington as it looks to get back over .500 on the season prior to its week off for finals. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of less than seven points and will pull away in this one. 10* (730) Washington Huskies |
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12-10-16 | Colorado v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
BYU opened the season 4-0 before hitting a speedbump toward the end of November. The Cougars lost against a very strong Valparaiso team in Las Vegas and then followed that up with a head scratcher. BYU had a bad home loss against Utah Valley where the Wolverines nailed 18 three-pointers so some bad luck can be put into that defeat. The Cougars are coming off a much needed win over Weber St. on Wednesday to gain some momentum heading into this game. They lost by nine points in Colorado last season so they will be out for some payback tonight before taking a week off. Colorado is coming off an upset win over Xavier on Wednesday and now hits the road for just the second time this season. The Buffaloes defeated Portland in their first road game but that is quality win and they now face a huge test. They own one of the best home court advantages in the nation but they have been a very average road team and going back, they are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games as underdogs between 3.5 and 6 points. Meanwhile, BYU is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games coming off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. 10* (584) BYU Cougars |
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12-10-16 | Arizona State v. San Diego State -8.5 | Top | 74-63 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Obviously, we are big fans of playing on elite teams coming off losses and San Diego St. fits the bill on Saturday. The Aztecs opened the season 4-1 with the lone loss coming at Gonzaga but has since dropped their last two games, a loss at Loyola-Chicago and a loss at Grand Canyon. Those are two horrific losses and after missing the NCAA Tournament last season, they can ill afford another bad loss which would be the case here. San Diego St. was 28-10 including 16-2 in the MWC last season which shows there is little room for error as it was the first time in six years that the regular season champion failed to make the Big Dance. Arizona St. finished 5-13 in the Pac 12 last season and projections are again saying that the Sun Devils will finish near the bottom of the conference once again. They are off to a 5-4 start which does not seem that bad however, there is not a significant win on the slate so far. Additionally, three losses have come by 19, 46 and 34 points and those were on neutral floors. This is the first true road game of the season for Arizona St. and that is not good for a team that has gone 6-19 on the highway the last two years. The Sun Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a loss by 15 or more points. 10* (568) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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12-10-16 | Connecticut v. Ohio State -9 | Top | 60-64 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Ohio St. is likely not a Big Ten contender this season as some sources say and coming off a home loss to Florida Atlantic in its last game will cement that. However, this is a team that cannot be counted out and this is an ideal situation to back the Buckeyes. They are coming off a 21-14 season where they made it to the NIT but they are one of the most experienced teams in the nation which makes that loss against the Owls even more surprising. They have their top six scorers back from last season with five of those being upperclassmen. There may have been a lookahead to this game from Tuesday as Ohio St. is out to revenge a 20-point loss to the Huskies from last season. Connecticut was ranked No .18 in the Preseason AP Poll but an opening loss to Wagner followed by a loss against Northeastern knocked it out pretty quickly. The only win in the Maui Invitational came against Chaminade and while the Huskies are coming off a win over Syracuse, it was ugly as they shot just 31 percent from the floor and 56.5 percent from the stripe. The Huskies are now entering a bad spot with finals week coming up as well. Ohio St. is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games following a loss. 10* (564) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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12-10-16 | Utah v. Xavier -12 | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
We played on this Xavier team Wednesday as it was coming off a blowout loss in Baylor but the Musketeers failed to bounce back as they lost at Colorado by a bucket. Now, coming off two straight losses and heading back home, this is a statement game for them as they cannot afford a loss to anon-quality opponent and a blowout win is needed. Utah may not be considered non-quality to some but the Utes can be placed in that category this season. The Utes lost a ton of talent and have had to basically rebuild their roster which puts them in a tough spot here. They are off to a 6-1 start but their biggest win was against either UC-Riverside or Montana St. and if that is a question, it shows how soft of a slate it has been. Out of 350 Division I teams, Utah has played a schedule ranked No. 344 and has yet to leave its own gym on top of it. Do not let the big number be a scare here as this one has the potential to get out of control quickly. Xavier is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 home games against teams outrebounding opponents by seven or more rpg and we already know that that Utah number is skewed. 10* (560) Xavier Musketeers |
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12-08-16 | Vanderbilt v. Middle Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 48-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee St. made a name for itself last season when it upset Michigan St. in the NCAA Tournament and it will make another run this season. The Blue Raiders are riding a six-game winning streak and are led by Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams who leads the team with 19.7 ppg, one of three players averaging at least 14 ppg. At 8-1, the Blue Raiders have risen to sixth in the NCAA RPI ratings and have been one of the best home teams in the country in recent years, holding a 70-12 record in the Murphy Center since 2011-12. Vanderbilt bounced back from a loss against Minnesota with a 27-point win over High Point to improve to 5-4 on the season. It has definitely been an uneven start for the Commodores under first year head coach Bryce Drew which were picked to finish middle of the pack in the SEC. The team that was picked ahead of Vanderbilt, Mississippi, fell to Middle Tennessee St. last month on its home floor so a middle of the road SEC team is no issue for the Blue Raiders. The Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog while the Blue Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of less than seven points. 10* (518) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders |
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12-07-16 | Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -7.5 | Top | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Long Beach St. opened the season with a win over CS-Los Angeles and has now gone on to lose nine straight games. While that may seem to be an issue in backing the 49ers, the fact of the matter is that all of those games were away from The Pyramid and includes games against Wichita St., North Carolina, Louisville, UCLA and Kansas. They have been off for three days which is significant after traveling over 15,000 miles over the last three weeks. Pepperdine has been struggling as well as it has dropped three straight games following a 4-1 start to the season. The Wave have defeated no one of significance however so its 4-4 record is worse than it looks. This is the first true road game of the season for Pepperdine as well and it will take to the road for the first time without Stacy Davis and Jett Raines, who combined for 2,786 career points. Long Beach St. has underachieved of late but is picked to win the Big West Conference and with a game at Texas on deck, it needs this one in a big way and a blowout will only help matters. 10* (760) Long Beach St. 49ers |
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12-07-16 | Xavier -2.5 v. Colorado | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Playing on elite teams coming off big losses are always a great angle and it fits here for Xavier. The Mustangs moved to as high as No. 7 in the AP Poll but then traveled to Baylor and were annihilated by 15 points despite leading by three at the half. They shot a mere 23 percent in the second half and were on the wrong end of a 19-2 run. Xavier is expected to give Villanova a run once again with four of its top six scorers back and this is a hungry team after an earlier than expected ending to last season in the NCAA Tournament. A big road win will help and Colorado can fit the bill. The Buffaloes are expected to be solid once again but the start this season has been average despite what looks like a solid 6-2 record. They have not beaten anyone, and that includes Texas, while they lost at home against Colorado St. which is a middle of the road team in the MWC. Playing in the Coors Events Center is never easy but Xavier has what it takes to win away from home (13 last season) and we are getting a good line on top of it. 10* (747) Xavier Musketeers |
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12-07-16 | TCU v. SMU -3.5 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
SMU started the season 3-0 including an impressive win over Pittsburgh prior to getting hammered against Michigan the next day at MSG. The Mustangs have been up and down since then with a pair of losses against USC and Boise St., two solid teams, but they bring in a two-game winning streak into tonight. SMU missed the NCAA Tournament last season because of violations and then head coach Larry Brown resigned but this team is in great shape to make another run as Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye has been everything as advertised. We are catching a small line here because TCU is off to an 8-0 start behind first year head coach Jamie Dixon. A pair of wins over Washington and a win over UNLV look good on paper and in name but those programs are in down years. The win at UNLV was the lone true road game of the season and TCU won that game thanks to being given 18 more free throw attempts as it was outshot from the floor as well as from long range. 10* (740) SMU Mustangs |
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12-06-16 | St Bonaventure v. Hofstra +5 | Top | 81-75 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
St. Bonaventure and Hofstra both come in riding four-game winning streaks and we are getting significant value with the home team. The Bonnies are coming off a sensational 22-9 season but were snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee despite sharing the A-10 regular season championship and the disappointment showed in an opening round loss in the NIT. They only lost two starters but they were two big ones in Marcus Posley and Dion Wright which averaged a combined 36.3 ppg. Now St. Bonaventure hits the road for the first time this season and is listed as a surprising favorite. Hofstra has won three games away from home during this current winning streak and tonight marks only the second home game of the season. The Pride have a great inside-outside duo in center Rokas Gustys who is averaging 14.3 rpg, which is tops in the country, and freshman guard Eli Pemberton who leads the team in scoring at 15.3 ppg. Gustys is expected to contend for CAA Player of the Year while Pemberton will likely be top newcomer in the conference. Hofstra has a legitimate shot at this one outright but we will gladly grab the points. 10* (514) Hofstra Pride |
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12-03-16 | Auburn v. UAB -4 | Top | 74-70 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Auburn is a middle of the pack team in the SEC that is off to a solid 5-1 start because the schedule has been pretty light. The only true test came against Purdue in the Cancun Challenge which resulted in a 25-point loss and now the Tigers travel to UAB for their first true road game of the season. They have been a horrible road team over the last few years as they have not won more than two road games since 2008-2009 and have gone 12-64 on the highway since then. UAB is off to an average 4-3 start but has played a difficult schedule thus far with tough games against Kansas, St. Marys and George Washington. The Blazers won their last game and while it was only against Alabama A&M, the 30-point win was needed for confidence sake. UAB will be out for revenge here as it lost in Auburn last season by a point, losing in the final second by an Auburn three-pointer. Look for the Blazers to pull away for the comfortable win. 10* (800) UAB Blazers |
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12-01-16 | Fairfield v. Rider -3 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Rider is one of nine teams in the country that has yet to play a home game so tonight marks the first time the Broncs take the floor at Alumni Gymnasium. They are off to a 3-2 start which is pretty solid considering they started the season with five road games. Rider has five players averaging 9.8 ppg or more and it is the frontcourt that has been the strength, led by seniors Kahlil Thomas, Xavier Lundy and Norville Carey. They have won the battle of the boards in all five games this season. The Broncs have failed to cover both lined games this season which is giving them value in the short price at home. Fairfield is 4-1 including a 2-1 record on the road. The signature win was a victory at Wagner, which beat Connecticut earlier in the season but Rider also defeated Wagner on the road this past Saturday. This is the conference opener for both teams and with Rider coming off their first 20-loss season which included a 0-5 start in the MAAC, the Broncs will be highly motivated for a better start and the home opener takes care of that. 10* (726) Rider Broncs |
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11-30-16 | Northern Illinois v. Indiana State -4.5 | Top | 52-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is the second meeting this season between Northern Illinois and Indiana St. and the latter will be out for some payback. Two free throws from Laytwan Porter with 4.3 seconds remaining helped lift the Huskies to an 80-78 overtime victory over Indiana St. in the season opener for both sides. Northern Illinois had a great season a year ago based on what was expected but was just 3-10 on the road and they are already 0-1 on the highway this season. Indiana St. comes into tonight with a 2-4 overall record, with its four setbacks coming by a total of 10 points. This past weekend at the Advocare Invitational in Orlando, Fla., the Sycamores fell to Iowa St. by two, Stanford by three and Quinnipiac by three. This is just their second home game and going back, the Sycamores have won 53 of their last 71 home games making this a very potent home court advantage. Additionally, Indiana St. is 34-14 ATS in its last 58 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* (548) Indiana St. Sycamores |
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11-30-16 | Middle Tennessee +6.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The rebuilding season in Mississippi continues and while its 5-1 record looks good, it does not have much to it. Four of the wins came against Tennessee-Martin, UMass, Oral Roberts and Montana by a combined 17 points, only one by more than seven points and that went to overtime. The Rebels are doing well on offense after having to replace reigning SEC leading scorer Stefan Moody but are struggling on defense. Middle Tennessee St. made a name for itself last season when it upset Michigan St. in the NCAA Tournament and it will make another run this season. The Blue Raiders are riding a four-game winning streak and are led by Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams who leads the team with 21.6 ppg. While this is the first true road game for the Blue Raiders, they are getting a very healthy number here in a game they feasibly can win outright. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite while Middle Tennessee St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams averaging 84 or more ppg. 10* (553) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders |
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11-30-16 | Ohio v. Marshall -1.5 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Ohio is off to a 4-0 start including a win in its only game on the road. The Bobcats are picked to contend in the MAC once again following an 11-7 conference record last season, good for second in the MAC East. The one road win came at Georgia Tech which may look good on paper but the Yellow Jackets are in a down year. Marshall is 4-1 on the season and will look to rebound from a 41-point shellacking at Ohio St. five days ago. The Thundering Herd were a big surprise last season as they finished second in C-USA with a 13-5 record and are a potent bunch once again. They were the third highest scoring team in the nation and while they lost James Kelly, four starters are back including point guard Jon Elmore who leads the team in scoring at 20.2 ppg and the point guard position is huge in the Dan D'Antoni fast paced offense. Marshall will look to snap a four-game losing streak in this heated rivalry with this being meeting No. 102. 10* (538) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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11-29-16 | Georgia Tech v. Penn State -7.5 | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
The ACC/Big Ten Challenge started last night and continues through Wednesday. Georgia Tech is off to a 4-1 start with the four wins coming against no one impressive. The Yellow Jackets lone loss came against Ohio at home and tonight is the first road game of the season for them. Georgia Tech returns seven lettermen from the 21-15 team, but it lost its top four scorers and lost upwards of 85 percent of its production from a lot of the major statistical categories. Expectations are very low and Georgia Tech has been picked to finish last, or near last, in the ACC. Penn St. is a young team as well with no seniors but it still brings back three starters and brought in one of the best recruiting classes in program history. Two of the top three scorers for the Nittany Lions are freshmen and overall they have four players averaging double-digits. Overall, they are 4-3 and after a loss in their season opener, the other two losses have come against No. 4 Duke and No. 21 Cincinnati. It is rare to see Penn St. a decent-sized favorite but it has had success in the past going 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite between 6.5 and 9 points. 10* (724) Penn St. Nittany Lions |
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11-26-16 | Central Michigan v. Green Bay -5.5 | Top | 89-77 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
This is a classic case of experience versus inexperience with the latter taking a trip to a very tough environment. Central Michigan is off to a 4-2 start but do not let that record fool you any as two of those win came against non-Division I teams. The Chippewas are coming off a decent 17-16 season a year ago but they do not have much back as they have only six scholarship players returning. Guard Marcus Keene leads the team in scoring at 29.3 ppg which is also tops in the nation but after that, there is not much. Green Bay is 3-2 and will be playing just its second home game of the season. Since 2011-12, the Resch Center has been one of the toughest places for the opposition as the Phoenix are 63-13 here. They bring back seven seniors from the team that went 23-13last season and will be making another run at the Horizon League title. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging 76 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 74 and 76 ppg, after scoring 95 points or more. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (528) Green Bay Phoenix |
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11-24-16 | Illinois +8.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 57-89 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Illinois coming off a nightmare season where it posted its worst record since 1999 as injuries took its toll before and throughout the season. Now healthy, the Illini can put a bounce back season together and get back to the NCAA Tournament after missing it for three straight years. The return of point guard Tracy Abrams is pivotal after he missed the last two years with injuries and he is one of six players scoring in double-figures, led by Big Ten Player of the Year candidate Malcolm Hill with 20.6 ppg. Illinois is 4-1 and coming off a loss to an extremely solid Winthrop team in overtime. West Virginia is off to a 3-0 start but it is hard to say how this team is overall based on the fact none of their games had lines showing the easiness of the slate. The Mountaineers are expected to give Kansas a run in the Big 12 and are currently ranked No. 19 in the nation but inexperience down low is an issue and will be early on in the season so Illinois will not be at a disadvantage here like it could be against other teams that are big. Illinois is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after scoring 75 points or more two straight games while the Mountaineers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. 10* (513) Illinois Fighting Illini |
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11-24-16 | BYU v. Valparaiso +8.5 | Top | 89-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
After winning 28 and 30 games the last two season, Valparaiso is expected to flirt with those numbers once again as it brings back the majority of its team from last season. The Crusaders will have the best player on the floor with Alec Peters who is already averaging 25.4 ppg and 8.8 rpg through five games. They took care of Alabama in the first round of the MGM Grand Main Event and are now catching a very favorable number against BYU. The Cougars rolled over St. Louis in the first round game to improve to 4-0 but this will easily be the biggest test of the young season. They lost two key players from last season, Big West Conference Player of the Year Kyle Collinsworth and leading scorer Chase Fisher and while still very talented, it is hard to gauge how good this team actually is. These teams met last season in the NIT Semifinals at MSG and Valparaiso won by a bucket. On that neutral floor, the Crusaders were favored by 2.5 points and now we are seeing a double-digit line shift despite both teams being relatively equal to the teams from last season. 10* (790) Valparaiso Crusaders |
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11-22-16 | Yale v. Pittsburgh -10.5 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Yale had an epic season a year ago as it won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record and then defeated Baylor in the NCAA Tournament before losing to Duke in the second round. The Bulldogs will be hard-pressed to come close to matching the effort from last season as they lost two-time Ivy League Player of the Year Justin Sears and forward Brandon Sherrod who averaged 12.7 ppg. Yale had been counting on Makai Mason, the leading scorer from last year, to lead the team but he is lost for the season with a foot injury while top incoming freshman Jordan Bruner is out until early December. Pittsburgh is coming off a solid win over Marquette at MSG on Friday to move to 3-1 on the season. The Panthers have a new head coach as Jamie Dixon left for TCU and Kevin Stallings from Vanderbilt steps in. Pittsburgh is a middle of the pack team in the rugged ACC but this is a very solid group that has six of its top seven scorers back from last season as they only lost James Robinson and his 10.2 ppg. Yale wax hammered in Virginia by 24 points and while Pittsburgh is not as good as the Cavaliers, they will be able to pull away for a blowout here. 10* (516) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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11-20-16 | Clemson -2 v. Oklahoma | Top | 64-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Clemson broke in the newly renovated Littlejohn Coliseum with a convincing win over Georgia and has held its own so far in Puerto Rico. The Tigers defeated a very good Davidson team before losing to No. 11 Xavier on Friday by just six points. Clemson had a surprisingly good season last year despite playing its home games a half-hour away from campus as it finished 17-14 overall including 10-8 in the ACC. The Tigers are pretty loaded this season as they return three starters including First Team All-ACC forward Jaron Blossomgame and they have six players averaging double-figures in scoring. Oklahoma suffered its first loss of the season in overtime against Northern Iowa and after a magical run last season, it is rebuilding time in Norman. The loss of Buddy Hield cannot be overstated but the Sooners also lost two other seniors that averaged double-digits in scoring so a ton needs to be replaced. In a down year in the Big 12, Oklahoma is still picked to finish only sixth. Even as good as they were, the Sooners are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (533) Clemson Tigers |
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11-19-16 | Cincinnati v. Rhode Island +1.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
The Rams are off to a 3-0 start this season and while those victories have come against some weak opposition, this is a very strong team. They are currently ranked No. 21 in the nation following a 17-15 season that was not as good as expected. A big reason for that was Rhode Island lost E.C. Matthews early in the year and then other injuries took place throughout the season. The Rams have nearly everyone back and have four players averaging double-digits in scoring led by Matthews and his 20 ppg. While this is not a home game, the Rams will have plenty of fans here in Connecticut. Cincinnati has rolled in its first two games against lesser opposition and faces a big test here. The Rams defeated Brown by just seven points in the last game and that will be big motivator here. After the Brown game, head coach Dan Hurley, clearly not pleased, left all of his players in the locker room instead of bringing two with him when he met the media. He called the defensive play of his guards "pathetic." That will certainly fire up the players for this contest and a chance to play Duke on Sunday. 10* (740) Rhode Island Rams |
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11-18-16 | Ohio -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 67-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Georgia Tech is off to a 2-0 start with a pair of wins over Tennessee Tech and Southern but do not let those fool you. This is not a good team. Georgia Tech returns seven lettermen from the 21-15 team, but it lost its top four scorers and lost upwards of 85 percent of its production from a lot of the major statistical categories. Expectations are very low and Georgia Tech has been picked to finish last, or near last, in the ACC. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets will be without senior point guard Josh Heath. He is suspended for the first four games of the regular season and can return Nov. 26 against Tulane. Ohio is also 2-0 as it also defeated Southern while beating a very solid Sam Houston St. team by 21 points. The Bobcats are coming off a 23-12 season and are expected to have an even better season this year. They have the reigning MAC Player of the Year in Antonio Campbell as well as a great point guard in Jaaron Simmons as well as two other returning starters. This team is loaded and the line shift in this game is warranted. 10* (529) Ohio Bobcats |
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11-17-16 | Connecticut -7 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a huge game for Connecticut. The Huskies are off to a 0-2 start after suffering embarrassing home losses against Wagner and Northeastern and the season could get out of control very shortly. Following the game tonight, Connecticut heads to Hawaii for the Maui Invitational where it faces Oklahoma St. in the first round. The remaining teams include North Carolina, Oregon, Georgetown, Tennessee and Wisconsin so it will be a true test and going in there 0-3 could very well mean coming out 1-5 at best. The Huskies need to build confidence heading into next week. Loyola Marymount is a program on the rise but it is not on the same level as Connecticut despite the poor start for the Huskies. The Lions are 1-1, winning a glorified exhibition against Vanguard and then getting thumped at Nevada by 15 points. Hosting Connecticut is a big deal so the Lions will no doubt be fired up for this one but they are catching the Huskies at the wrong time. A fast start is important for Connecticut as it has led only for five minutes and five seconds this season and twice trailed by double digits in the first half. Going back, Loyola-Marymount is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after one or more consecutive losses. 10* (735) Connecticut Huskies |
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11-16-16 | San Francisco v. UC-Santa Barbara -8 | Top | 75-63 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
UC Santa Barbara lost its season opener by 14 points to Omaha which may seem like a horrible loss but in reality, the Mavericks are a solid team out of the Summit League and following that win, they played USC and Kansas St. very tough in a pair of losses. Back to the Gauchos which are expected to contend in the Big West this season and will be in full bounce back mode tonight. They have three starters back led by a strong backcourt and the addition of Jalen Canty will help the undersized roster right away. The Gauchos will struggle against big teams but San Francisco poses no threat down low. The Dons are coming off an unimpressive win at home against Illinois-Chicago by just a bucket and this team is in for a long season. They lost two starters to graduation and when head coach Rex Walters was fired, they lost two more starters who opted to transfer out. Now they hit the road for the first time and in a very bad spot. The Gauchos fall into a solid situation as we play on favorites with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season. This situation is 153-96 ATS (61.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (534) UC Santa Barbara Gauchos |
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11-15-16 | Maryland v. Georgetown -5.5 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
On paper based on last year, the fact that Georgetown is favored here may be shocking and that is a significant reason that Maryland is a huge public consensus tonight. The Hoyas were one of the most disappointing teams in the country last season as they lost some games to teams they never should be losing to enroute to a 15-18 season, the first losing record ever under head coach John Thompson III. Georgetown will bounce back this season and the first game was a good start as it rolled over USC Upstate. While that may seem unimpressive, remember Georgetown lost its first game last season against Radford. Graduate transfer Rodney Prior led the Hoyas with 32 points and he is a big piece of the resurgence after leading Robert Morris in scoring and rebounding last season. The Hoyas also have four starts back. That is the complete opposite of Maryland which lost four starters and while the lone returnee is a great one in Melo Trimble, it is going to take some time for this team to come together. That was proven in the Terrapins opener, a narrow six-point win over American (The Eagles lost by 23 at Texas A&M last night). Look for a signature Hoyas win tonight. 10* (716) Georgetown Hoyas |
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11-14-16 | Georgia State v. Auburn -7 | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Auburn closed last season with a four-game losing streak which closed a bad second half of the season where the Tigers went just 2-11 over their last 13 games. A lot of this was due to the unexpected injury to their point guard and then a suspension to their leading scorer. There is a solid foundation in place and expectations are pretty high in Auburn thanks to blue chip recruit Mustapha Heron. This is the third year here for head coach Bruce Pearl and this is usually the pivotal one as every player on the team is his recruit. Georgia St. is a team in transition after losing some very key components from last season. The Panthers were solid on defense but were unable to score consistently and while that has been addressed heading into this season, it will take some time for this team to jell as the roster is young in some spots and transfer heavy in others. They are coming off a blowout win in their opener but that came against Thomas University, a team from the NAIA. The Panthers have failed to cover their last six games against the SEC. 10* (544) Auburn Tigers |
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11-14-16 | Northeastern v. Connecticut -13 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Connecticut entered the season ranked No. 18 but dropped its opening game against Wagner on Friday which snapped a 27-0 home opening winning streak on campus. It was a horrible loss for the Huskies but it does give us an edge here as you can guarantee they will put up their best effort tonight in trying to bounce back. Expectations coming into the season were very high, even higher than the preseason ranking based on some solid returning talent as well as one of the top freshman classes in the country. Northeastern is coming off a win in its season opener against Boston University but it was not overly impressive but at least it was a win, something that Connecticut cannot say. The Huskies are coming off an average season, one that was supposed to be much better as they had two of the best players in the conference in Quincy Ford and David Walker but they have now departed to this is a team in transition mode. Northeastern heads to Connecticut at the wrong time which results in a blowout loss tonight. 10* (520) Connecticut Huskies |
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11-13-16 | Long Beach State +10.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 55-92 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Wichita St. has been a mid-major power for years and while the Shockers are picked to win the Missouri Valley Conference once again, some of that has to do with the rest of the conference team being down rather. The Shockers lost Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet to graduation and the NBA and those are two tough losses top make up. Overall, three starters have to be replaced and no returning players scored in double-figures last season so there is plenty of work to be done. The Shockers defeated South Carolina St. by 46 points so that victory is inflating this line. Long Beach St. is the pick to win the Big West Conference and it is also coming off a big Friday win by 36 points over CS-Los Angeles. The 49ers have a veteran backcourt, always important in games like this in a very tough environment, and one key ingredient is Evan Payne who transferred in from Loyola-Marymount. He led the team with 15 points on Friday in just 21 minutes after averaging 18 ppg with the Lions two years ago. This has the makings of an early season classic battle and we will gladly grab the double-digits. 10* (727) Long Beach St. 49ers |
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11-11-16 | Tennessee Tech +8.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 55-70 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Georgia Tech enters the season with a new coach and plenty of questions. Josh Pastner takes over the program after Brian Gregory was fired and he inherits a team without much firepower. Georgia Tech returns seven lettermen from the 21-15 team, but it lost its top four scorers and lost upwards of 85 percent of its production from a lot of the major statistical categories. Expectations are very low and Georgia Tech has been picked to finish last, or near last, in the ACC. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets will be without senior point guard Josh Heath. He is suspended for the first four games of the regular season and can return Nov. 26 against Tulane. Tennessee Tech lost its top two scorers but this could very be the deepest team head coach Steve Payne has had in his five years with the Golden Eagles. They reached their first postseason since the 2012 CIT and this season, Tennessee Tech is picked to finish second in its division of the Ohio Valley Conference. It is loaded with JUCO talent coming along with impact players coming back led by preseason all-OVC Serbian combo guard Aleksa Jugovic. After watching Georgia Tech struggle with Shorter in its lone exhibition game, this one is certainly no gimmie. 10* (811) Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles |
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11-11-16 | Evansville v. Louisville -21 | Top | 47-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Evansville posted a 25-9 record last season, the best record for the program in 27 years, but a heartbreaking loss in the MVC Tournament against Northern Iowa ended its season earlier than expected. The Purple Aces were passed over by the NCAA Tournament and the NIT and decided not to play in any other postseason tournament. Now the rebuilding process begins. They lost guard D.J. Balentine who led the conference in scoring three straight seasons and center Egidijus Mockevicuis who led the conference in rebounding three straight seasons. Also gone are three-year starter Adam Wing, MVC Sixth Man of the Year Mislav Brzoja and projected starter Blake Simmons who is out for the season after a summer injury. Louisville had a potential Elite Eight team last season before the university's administration sacrificed the season because of the Andre McGee allegations. This team is a potential top ten team once again and they will be out for blood early on. Louisville is built to run, create turnovers and score and Evansville does not have the bodies to keep up here. 10* (718) Louisville Cardinals |
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11-11-16 | Louisiana Tech +9.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech went 23-10 last season and finished in a tie for third in Conference-USA and the Bulldogs will once again contend for the conference title. They lost three starters from last season but they are still experienced and very deep so they will be able to run and defend without a problem. The Bulldogs recently scrimmaged a Power Five team, according to head coach Eric Konkol, who said he was pleased with the performance. Freshman guards Jalen Harris and DaQuan Bracey, who are expected to see significant playing time, will be key in replacing Alex Hamilton, the 2015-16 C-USA Player of the Year. South Carolina tied a school record for wins last season with 25 but failed to make the NCAA Tournament and made an early exit in the NIT. The Gamecocks have a solid backcourt but they lost their entire frontcourt and enter the season with seven new scholarship players including five freshmen so it will take a while for this team to get going. Overall, South Carolina only has ten scholarship players and they lost 36.9 points of their scoring production in the offseason to graduation and transfer. 10* (733) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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04-04-16 | Villanova +3 v. North Carolina | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
If you though Saturday night was boring, well it was as the 61-point scoring differential was the largest combined margin of victory in Final Four history. Both teams have been playing at a high level the entire tournament as the North Carolina non-cover against Florida Gulf Coast in the opening round is the only game the two teams have not covered. For the first time since 2008, the No. 1 team in Ken Pomeroy's ratings will play the No. 2 team in Ken Pomeroy's ratings for the national title and that is significant since it shows how close these two teams are which gives the underdog the value. The Wildcats may be the better team anyway based on what they have done and what they are doing now. They are 48-for-98 (48.9 percent) from long range in the tournament which would make them the best three-point shooting team in the country albeit from a slam sample size. Villanova is already No. 2 in the nation in two-point field goal percentage (57.3 percent) and free throw percentage (78.2 percent) so all around, they are the team to beat in my opinion. Even more impressive, Villanova has had a much tougher road to get here as it has faced the highest possible seed in every round with the exception of the last round and Oklahoma was no slouch. North Carolina has not faced the seed it should be facing as each game going forward came against a higher than expected seed. While both teams are rolling and covering, the Wildcats are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games against teams with a winning straight up record which is an impressive run going back. 10* (601) Villanova Wildcats |
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04-02-16 | Syracuse +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 66-83 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
Syracuse is certainly the surprise to be here in the Final Four and not many will be giving the Orange a shot in this one and the line is definitely saying that. North Carolina took both regular season meetings and that will be a big factor in the backing of the Tar Heels but beating the same team three times in the same season is not easy and looking at those first two meetings may not tell the whole story. The Orange led the first game by six points with 8:30 remaining before North Carolina unleashed on a huge run as it was able to create easy baskets and in the second meeting, the Orange had the ball down by three points in the final 10 seconds, but Michael Gbinije missed a layup. If there is one thing Syracuse proved effective at in its two regular season losses to North Carolina is that it was able to contain Marcus Paige. In the first meeting, he scored three points on 1-of-8 shooting and in the second meeting, Paige was 2-of-10 from the floor with six points. Overall, he was just 3-13 from long range and while some can be blamed on just cold shooting, the zone defense had a lot to do with that. The Syracuse defense has been the main reason it is in this position as it has allowed 55.8 ppg on 36.4 percent shooting and while keeping the Tar Heels to those averages likely will not happen, keeping them well below their own averages should keep them within the number. 10* (813) Syracuse Orange |
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04-02-16 | Villanova -2 v. Oklahoma | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
While there is no need for motivation this time of year, you can imagine that Villanova might have a little extra spark which could get them out early. Way back in early December, the Sooners defeated the Wildcats by 23 points in Hawaii as they were atrocious from behind the arc, shooting just 4-32 (12.5 percent) and surely Villanova has not forgotten that matchup. Plus, there are plenty of differences since then anyhow. The Wildcats have become deadly efficient in the tournament, shooting over 46 percent from long range through four games and over 55 percent from the field. For comparison, the Sooners are shooting 44 percent from behind the arc, but a much less 48.5 percent from the field. Oklahoma has the best player on the court in Buddy Hield and while he has plenty of parts around him, Villanova arguably has the most talent top to bottom which makes the Wildcats a tough out because of their balance. There have been a ton of upsets in the NCAA Tournament but Villanova has not been fortunate to face one of those as it has faced the highest possible seed in every round from No. 15 to No. 7 to No. 3 to No. 1. The defense has led the way as they have not allowed more than 70 points in any postseason game and the defense has led the way most of the season. Going back, the Wildcats are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Sooners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (811) Villanova Wildcats |
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04-01-16 | Morehead State +4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The championship of the CBI Tournament has gone to a final game in the best of three series as Morehead St. and Nevada each won on their home floor in the first two games. The Wolf Pack have the advantage of playing the decisive game on their home floor and following a nine-point win here on Wednesday, they are again favored by the same amount. With this being the third game in five days between the two teams, I expect a very close game on Friday because of the familiarity. Nevada has covered every game thus far in the tournament and that is a huge reason the public is again all over the Wolf Pack but we are going contrarian in this one. This should be an ugly final game which favors the underdog with points being a premium. This is because Nevada ranks fourth in the nation, allowing just 99.5 points per 100 possessions, while Morehead State ranks sixth with 102.4 points per 100 possessions. With a championship on the line, expect both teams to play it a little more vanilla and while Nevada has been dominant on its home floor, the Eagles can no doubt win this game outright. Going back, the Eagles are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. 10* (521) Morehead St. Eagles |
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03-26-16 | Oklahoma v. Oregon -1 | Top | 80-68 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The Pac 12 has gotten a bad rap in the NCAA Tournament thus far and justifiably so as five teams lost in the first round and Utah was sent packing in the second round. Oregon though has been the exception and has been living up to its No. 1 seed following a 14-point romp over Duke on Thursday. The Ducks won the Pac 12 with a 14-4 record, then won the Pac 12 Tournament, including an 88-57 rout of Utah in the title game. Oklahoma is the more popular team simply because people have seen them more and because it has one of the best players in the country in Buddy Hield. We won with the Sooners Thursday against Texas A&M but the challenge will be a lot more difficult here. The Ducks were not great against the three-ball in conference play, but through three games in the tournament, Oregon hasn't let an opponent shoot better than 31 percent from long range. While Oregon is not familiar to many, the Ducks played the nation's second-toughest schedule, according to ESPN, and led the nation with 22 wins against teams in the top 100 of the ESPN RPI index. The Ducks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Sooners are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (524) Oregon Ducks |
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03-25-16 | Wisconsin v. Notre Dame -1 | Top | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
Notre Dame took care of Michigan in the first round on Friday and then escaped Stephen F. Austin on Sunday thanks to a late comeback and the game winning shot with under two seconds remaining. The Irish made the run last year into the Elite Eight and narrowly lost to Kentucky by a bucket and while this team is not considered as strong, they have an excellent matchup here to get back to the Elite Eight for a second straight season. Head coach Mike Brey has a lot to do with the success of these overachievers as it is no accident they are one of the most efficient teams in the country year in and year out. Wisconsin is coming off a very impressive win over Xavier to advance to the Sweet 16 but it was a game that could go either way. The Badgers won it on a 22-foot shot as time expired which capped a nine-point comeback with 6:19 remaining. Prior to that, they won an ugly game against Pittsburgh and that game shows the value here as Notre Dame is favored by the same amount the Panthers were and the Irish are ranked 19 spots higher in the RPI. Wisconsin is shooting just 42.6 percent on the season including 39 percent their last five games so the Irish have a huge edge in that department. Wisconsin will hang around for a while but the Irish will be able to comfortably pull away and head back to another Elite Eight. 10* (872) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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03-25-16 | Iowa State v. Virginia -5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 30 h 60 m | Show |
The ACC has been the talk of the tournament as the conference placed six teams into the Sweet 16 and Virginia is near the top of the list. The Cavaliers are the top seed in the Midwest Region and caught pretty big breaks with Michigan St. and Utah, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds respectively, losing last week. They do match up on Friday with the team they were supposed to face and they have some pretty significant advantages. Virginia is one of the most complete teams in the country on both ends of the floor and they simply wear the opposition down. Iowa St. is solid but it did not close the season very well and caught a huge break when Purdie blew a huge lead against Arkansas-Little Rock and lost giving the Cyclones an easy second round matchup. The Cyclones are ranked No. 23 in the RPI and No. 16 in the Pomeroy rankings, but they are only 2-8 against the RPI top 25 and 3-8 against the top 27 teams in the Pomeroy rankings. They are not a good rebounding team as they are ranked No. 121 in adjusted defensive rebounding and they do not force turnovers as they are ranked No. 161 in adjusted turnover rate. Virginia is much better in both categories and they are very important categories. The Cyclones are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win while the Cavaliers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (874) Virginia Cavaliers |
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03-24-16 | Maryland +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 63-79 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Maryland has been the more inconsistent of these two teams of late as it is just 5-5 over its last 10 games but three of those losses came by five points or less, another came at Indiana in its last home game of the season and the other was a home game against Wisconsin where they just did not show up. Maryland shot 1-for-18 on three-pointers which is an NCAA tournament record for futility by a winning team but still beat Hawaii 73-60 on Sunday on the strength of a defense-induced 19-2 run. Kansas has won 16 straight games which is a big reason that this is the biggest line of all the Sweet 16 games. The Jayhawks are the overall No. 1 seed for a reason but this is a tough matchup for them as they do not have edges up top or down low like they have had many times this season. The Terrapins are extremely talented and for much of the season, they dealt with the pressure of fulfilling high expectations. Now playing the role of underdog, that pressure is off and when they compete at a high level, they are one of the best teams in the country. That makes this number very appealing considering it is very strong when betting an underdog that has every chance to win outright. 10* (811) Maryland Terrapins |
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03-24-16 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma -2.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Texas A&M is very fortunate to even be here as it rallied from a 12-point deficit with 44 seconds remaining to force overtime and then won in double-overtime. The Aggies suffered through a four-game losing skid to open February but have won 10 of their last 11 games but only seven of those wins came against teams that are in the round of 64. That is not taking away for what they have done this season but playing in the weak SEC has had a lot to do with that. While that latest comeback is all the talk, getting down by 12 points against a much weaker team should be the bigger concern. The Sooners nearly blew a big lead against VCU but held on for a four-point victory to reach the Sweet 16 for a second straight season. While Oklahoma is all about Buddy Hield, the Sooners are more balanced than people may think. Hield, Ryan Spangler, Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard have started 102 consecutive games together. All four averaged double digit points this season and all have scored at least 1,000 career points. The fact that Oklahoma has failed to cover seven straight games is giving us a very good number. The Sooners have been overvalued on many occasions this season but this is not one of those. 10* (818) Oklahoma Sooners |
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03-23-16 | Florida v. George Washington -1.5 | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Florida has been the surprise of the NIT thus far as the Gators came in as a No. 2 seed but were forced to hit the road because the O'Connell Center is undergoing renovations. They easily defeated North Florida last Tuesday and then travelled to Ohio St. on Sunday and defeated the Buckeyes by eight points. Now they have to hit the road again with their overall 6-8 record on the highway into a very tough environment for their sixth consecutive game away from home. George Washington easily defeated No. 1 seed Monmouth on Monday and because of the Florida situation, it will be back in Washington for its final home game of the season so the environment will be a big advantage. On the line Wednesday will be the 23-game home winning streak against non-conference competition. The Colonials were a perfect 8-0 at home in non-conference play this year, plus the First Round NIT win over Hofstra. The last loss came at the hands of Kansas St. on Dec. 8, 2012. Despite the win Sunday, the Gators are 9-24-2 ATS in their last 35 games following a straight up win while going 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning straight up record. George Washington has won 18 of 22 games as a favorite this season. 10* (776) George Washington Colonials |
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03-22-16 | St. Mary's +4.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 44-60 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
A pair of regular season conference champions square off tonight as St. Mary's heads to Valparaiso with the winner heading to New York for the NIT Semifinals. The Gaels struggled to put away New Mexico St. in their first round game as the disappointment of not getting into the NCAA Tournament may have been lingering. They bounced back with an easy win over Georgia and now hit the road where they have been very solid this season with a 7-3 record. Valparaiso has cruised to wins in both of its games but now faces one of its tougher tests of the season. The Crusaders have lost only once at home this season but this marks the best team to come and visit the Athletics-Recreation Center. St. Mary's finished the regular season with a 6-2 record against teams ranked among the top 100 in the NCAA RPI while Valparaiso went just 3-3 against similar teams. Going back, the Gaels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile the Crusaders are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win while going 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (659) St. Mary's Gaels |
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03-21-16 | Washington v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
San Diego St. easily defeated IPFW in the first round of the NIT after getting snubbed by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Often times, you see teams come out flat in the NIT after feeling the disappointment of getting left out of the big tournament but that is not the case for the Aztecs which are out to prove how good they are. A big win against a major-conference team would be more proof the Aztecs deserved a spot in the NCAA tournament. Should South Carolina win tonight, this would make it the final home game of the season for San Diego St .as it would have to travel to the higher seeded Gamecocks. The Huskies survived Long Beach St. at home as they won by five points after trailing by 10 points early in the second half. Washington has dropped five straight games on the road and overall it is 3-6 on the highway. Those three wins came against non-postseason teams by just 10 points combined and one of those came in overtime at Washington St. which finished 1-17 in the Pac 12. This will be the biggest test of the year for the Huskies offense, because the Aztecs play defense better than anyone in the Pac 12 and better than most in the nation as they lead the country in effective defensive field goal percentage and are second in adjusted defensive efficiency. 10* (624) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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03-20-16 | Northern Iowa +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Northern Iowa takes on its second consecutive team from Texas after an incredible victory on Friday against the Longhorns. Many will be against the Panthers here based on a letdown but this is a very solid team that is peaking at the right time. Northern Iowa was picked to finish second in the Missouri Valley Conference behind Wichita St. but a 1-6 slump in the early part of the conference season doomed that. The Panthers did not quit however as they went 12-1 over their final 13 games including a pair of wins over the Shockers and the lone defeat coming by just three points on the road. The Aggies ran away from Green Bay in their opener as they went over 90 points for the first time since early January. The challenge gets tougher here though as the Panthers are much better defensively than the Phoenix and they have allowed just 58 ppg on 38.7 percent shooting over their last five games. Additionally, Northern Iowa is shooting 75.4 percent from the charity stripe which is 17th in the country. 10* (719) Northern Iowa Panthers |
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03-20-16 | Iowa +7 v. Villanova | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
Iowa survived a scare from Temple in the first round as the Hawkeyes needed overtime to advance. This line opened at 5 but it has risen as the public is not backing Iowa considering they have gone 1-8 ATS over their last nine games but they definitely present a challenge to Villanova because of the offense. Villanova took some time to take out UNC-Asheville but eventually pulled away for a 30-point win on Friday. The Wildcats are 25-1 this season when holding opponents under 70 points but Iowa averages 77.9 ppg and the Wildcats tournament struggles are pretty known as they are 0-6 in their last six tournament games against teams not seeded 15th or 16th. Beyond its three-point shooting prowess, Iowa prides itself on avoiding turnovers as the Hawkeyes are eight in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. Going back, the Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win and on the season, Iowa is 3-0 ATS ion this price range as an underdog. 10* (713) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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03-19-16 | Providence +10 v. North Carolina | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
North Carolina is one of two teams, with Kansas being the other, that has the most public backing to win the national championship and while the Tar Heels are a clear favorite, they should be in for a test here. They came out flat against Florida Gulf Coast but used an early second half run to pull away to survive the scare. North Carolina is just 5-5 this season against the top 50 from the ESPN Power Index and while Providence has only two wins against the same teams, it is an extremely dangerous team that is getting a huge number. The Friars are fortunate to be here for sure coming off a last second win over USC but when they play to their potential, they can beat anyone. The offense is led by Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil and the duo can create some problems for a Tar Heels defense that has struggled at times, case in point on Thursday when they allowed the Eagles to shoot 60 percent from the floor in the first half. 10* (525) Providence Friars |
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03-19-16 | Gonzaga v. Utah +1 | Top | 82-59 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is another example of the wrong team being favored because of the name. Gonzaga snuck into the NCAA Tournament because of the win in the WCC Tournament as it was a bubble team prior to that which its No. 11 seed attests to. The Bulldogs took care of Seton Hall in their first game which was a surprise based on how much they won by but when the Pirates best player goes 4-24 from the floor including 0-10 from long range, that will happen. Utah is one of just two of the seven Pac 12 teams left in the tournament and this line may have something to do with the perception of the conference being overrated. The Utes are extremely tough though and have one of the best players in the country in Jakob Poeltl who is a very difficult matchup down low. They won 19 games against the top 100 this season which is close to the most in the country while Gonzaga has just five against similar opposition. 10* (534) Utah Utes |
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03-19-16 | Wichita State v. Miami (Fla) +2.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
It is not too common to see a No. 11 seed be favored in its first two games (not counting the play in game where it was also favored) of the NCAA Tournament but that is the case for Wichita St. The Shockers closed as a one-point favorite against Arizona and have opened as a bucket favorite against Miami and that seems to be an overadjusted line. This is a very solid team that was underseeded and Wichita St. looked every bit as a team that can make a long run into the tournament but it gets a much tougher matchup here. Miami had to shake off a pesky Buffalo team as it won by seven points it won by seven points as a 14-point favorite. The Hurricanes are a tough matchup for most teams and are the sleeping giants when they play to their potential. Line value plays a big role this time of year and clearly, the wrong team is getting the points. 10* (522) Miami Hurricanes |
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03-18-16 | Northern Iowa +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Northern Iowa was picked to finish second in the Missouri Valley Conference behind Wichita St. but a 1-6 surge in the early part of the conference season doomed that. The Panthers did not quit however as they went 12-1 over their final 13 games including a pair of wins over the Shockers and the lone defeat coming by just three points on the road. The Panthers used to be a powerhouse in this conference and after a couple of off years, they seem to be back and are peaking at the right time. Shaka Smart did a great job at Texas this season and he brings in a lot of tournament experience. The Longhorns struggled shooting the ball this season as they hit just 43.2 percent for the season including only 40.4 percent over their last five games. They are also very average at the free throw line while that is a place that Northern Iowa excels. Texas will have Cameron Ridley for this game after he saw two minutes of action against Baylor in the Big XII Tournament. His minutes will go up after he missed two months of action but how effective he will be is definitely a question. The Panthers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (831) Northern Iowa Panthers |
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03-18-16 | Stephen F Austin +8 v. West Virginia | Top | 70-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
There is obviously a big difference between the Big XII Conference and the Southland Conference as far as talent goes but when a team cruises through the regular season with an 18-0 record and wins its two tournament games by 58 points combined, that gap is narrowed. That was the case for Stephen F. Austin as it is now 59-1 over the last three seasons in the Southland Conference and is making its third straight NCAA Tournament experience. The Lumberjacks defeated VCU in the first round two years ago and lost by just seven points against Utah last season. They pressure the ball very well as they force 17.5 turnovers per game and have a very similar style to that of West Virginia. The Mountaineers are very similar in that they also force a lot of turnovers to create easy baskets but facing a team like their own is not a good matchup in the first round. This is very similar to that VCU game with both having similar styles and the Lumberjacks winning outright as six-point underdogs. Stephen F. Austin shoots the ball well, has a 1.50 assist/turnover ratio and has a big edge at the free throw line. 10* (821) Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks |
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03-18-16 | Pittsburgh +2 v. Wisconsin | Top | 43-47 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Wisconsin made a huge run to get into the NCAA Tournament as it won 11 of 12 games following a 1-4 start in the Big Ten. The Badgers were pretty much left for dead after a rough overall start and the retiring of head coach Bo Ryan but they stayed on course with a huge turnaround. A one-point home victory over Michigan St. was the turning point and while there were some other solid wins, most of the victories over the surge were against the bottom teams in the Big Ten. A loss to Nebraska in their first Big Ten Tournament game put them in question even more. Pittsburgh did not finish the season nearly as strong and got its way into the NCAA Tournament thanks to a one-point win over Syracuse in the ACC Tournament and it was a bad shot by Orange away from playing in the NIT. But even though the Panthers will not go very far, they have a matchup edge that cannot be ignored. Pittsburgh's excellence in crashing the offensive glass is a huge advantage and it has dominated teams that have trouble on the boards and Wisconsin fits that profile. The Panthers remain one of the best in the country, collecting 37.4 percent of their own misses. Additionally, Pittsburgh has been a little more predictable and did not suffer as many bad losses as the Badgers did. 10* (835) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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03-18-16 | Temple +7.5 v. Iowa | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Temple had an exceptional season as it won the outright AAC regular season title but did not make much noise in the conference tournament as it was ousted by eventual champion Connecticut. Still, the Owls are a dangerous team that are guard heavy and take great care of the ball as they are ranked second in the country in turnover rate. They are an average shooting team but that can be negated by the fact they get to take more shots because of the limited number of turnovers. They own seven wins against top 100 teams. Iowa was atop the Big Ten at one point with a 10-1 record but limped in with a 2-5 finish and then lost in its first tournament game against Illinois. The Hawkeyes are a very streaky shooting team and that is not good against a solid Temple defense that has held opponents to just 41.2 percent over its last five games and 41.7 percent on the season. This is by far the biggest spread of all of the 7/10 matchups and it does not have a lot of basis in it being that way. The Owls are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (819) Temple Owls |
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03-18-16 | VCU v. Oregon State +4 | Top | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Oregon St. was a surprise to some to make the NCAA Tournament as it was right on the bubble but it is ranked No. 29 in the ESPN Power Index thanks to 12 wins against top 100 teams. The Beavers finished 9-9 in the Pac 12 during the regular season and after easily defeating Arizona St. in the tournament, they lost to California which was a very close game until the end. Those nine wins were the most since 1992-93 so it shows what a special season it was. A lot of this is due to senior Gary Payton Jr. who made first team All-Pac 12 and has won back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards. VCU finished in a three-way tie for first place in the Atlantic Ten but was unable to win the conference tournament as it fell to St. Joes by 13 points in the championship game. The Rams used to be known for their tenacious pressing defense which is not the same anymore. Many will argue that the Beavers are overseeded here as a No. 7 but that is right in line with that power index referenced earlier. That brings in the question of the pointspread where the Rams are the only No. 10 seed that is favored showing significant value for the Beavers. 10* (828) Oregon St. Beavers |
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03-17-16 | Providence -1.5 v. USC | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 27 m | Show |
This is the fourth and final matchup on Thursday coming from Raleigh with Providence and USC meeting for the first time since 1972. Both teams started the season red hot but cooled off once their respective conference seasons began but it is Providence that comes in as the hotter of the two teams. The Friars had won four straight games prior to being ousted in the Big East Tournament by Villanova by eight points in a game that was close until the final few minutes. Providence has point guard Kris Dunn, a probable NBA lottery pick, who averages 16.0 ppg and 6.4 apg and forward Ben Bentil, who averages 21.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg. The Trojans went just 3-7 over their last 10 games which included a loss to Utah in the Pac 12 Tournament. USC was awesome at home this season with a 16-2 record but it struggled on the highway, going just 5-10 in away and neutral court games. One key factor that the Friars possess if this is a close game is the fact they are the much better free throw shooting team and especially of late as they have a 75 percent to 64 percent edge over the last five games. Additionally, Providence is 8-3 ATS away from home against winning teams while USC is just 3-9 ATS in the same situation. 10* (727) Providence Friars |
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03-17-16 | Fresno State +8.5 v. Utah | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 36 m | Show |
Fresno St. and Utah will face each other in the Midwest Region in the first night game from the Pepsi Center in Denver. The Bulldogs enter this game as one of the hottest teams in the country as they have won nine straight games including three games in three days to capture the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Even as hot as they are, they needed the title to get into the Big Dance and the win over the Aztecs was impressive. They held San Diego St. to only 42 percent shooting, they pulled out 11 steals, and senior guard and conference player of the year Marvelle Harris scored a team-high 18 points. Fresno St. ranks among the best in the nation in steals. Utah is a solid sleeper to make a Final Four run and the Utes had won nine straight games before getting blown out by Oregon in the Pac 12 championship. Utah does a lot of things right and it possesses one of the best big men in the country in Jakob Poeltl. The Utes committed 20 turnovers against Oregon in that championship game and that plays right into the hands of the Bulldogs and this line makes it even more inviting for the red hot Bulldogs. 10* (745) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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03-17-16 | Iona +8 v. Iowa State | Top | 81-94 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
Iona and Iowa St. meet in the first game from Denver on Thursday and I feel this one has upset potential. The Gaels are a perennial strong team from the MAAC and while they were not the best this season, they were close. They finished one game behind Monmouth but they defeated the Hawks in the MAAC Championship to grab the automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Iona comes in riding an eight-game winning streak and while it comes from the much weaker conference, it has the game and the right matchup to stay within reach here. Iowa St. opened the season 9-0 but struggled after that by going just 12-11 after that including a pair of losses heading into the tournament. Granted, the Cyclones come out of the rugged Big XII Conference and they lost a lot of tight games but because of their pace, they will be in for a fight here. Iona is No. 31 on KenPom.com in ppg (79.6), 60th in adjusted offense (110.4) and 44th in adjusted tempo (72.4) while Iowa St. is 15th, 3rd and 54th in those categories. The bench is a factor also as drawing a game at high altitude against a running team might not be the ideal situation for a short-benched Iowa St. team. 10* (743) Iona Gaels |
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03-17-16 | Connecticut v. Colorado +3.5 | Top | 74-67 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 46 m | Show |
Connecticut and Colorado face off in the South Region in the first game from Des Moines on Thursday. The Huskies made a big run in the AAC Tournament as they won three games in three days to capture the title. It almost never happened however as Connecticut needed a half-court shot into what eventually was a four-overtime win over Cincinnati. That victory kept the Huskies out of the NIT as they were clearly a bubble team and while they bring in momentum, they have a very tough matchup here. Colorado lost to Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament quarters and while it is 3-2 over its last five games, it includes a big win over Arizona and close two-point loss at Utah. The Buffaloes covered all five of those games and despite the higher seed here, they are getting a very attractive number. The Buffaloes are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and that is a huge advantage in this one because Connecticut does not rebound the ball well, ranking 152nd in the nation. The Pac 12 got seven teams into the NCAA Tournament and while some of those will be fades, Colorado comes from the much stronger conference and that will show here. 10* (736) Colorado Buffaloes |
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03-17-16 | NC-Wilmington +11 v. Duke | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 45 h 43 m | Show |
The first day of the NCAA Tournament starts off with UNC-Wilmington taking on Duke in the West Region from Providence. The Seahawks won both the CAA regular season and conference tournament and come in as a dangerous No. 13 seed. They possess a guard-heavy lineup that likes to push the pace and has the firepower to keep up with Duke on the offensive end. While they have not been to the tournament since 2006, they are coached by former Louisville assistant Kevin Keatts so he has the knowledge of playing on the big stage. It has been a down year for the defending national champion Blue Devils and while another big run is not out of the question, they are far from dangerous and have struggled in these spots in recent years as they lost to Mercer in 2014 and Lehigh in 2012. Duke has made the NCAA tournament 32 times but this is just the fourth time the Blue Devils have been lower than a No. 3 seed under head coach Mike Krzyzewski. The loss of Amile Jefferson early in the season was a big blow for Duke down low so we will again see it push the pace but that is not an advantage in this matchup. 10* (723) UNC-Wilmington Seahawks |
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03-16-16 | Tulsa +4 v. Michigan | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
Tulsa was a surprise entrant into the NCAA Tournament by many and the public does not like this team in the First Four matchup on Wednesday as Michigan is the biggest consensus on the board in all NCAA Tournament games. While there may have been other teams that deserved consideration over Tulsa, this is a very solid team that will be out to prove the naysayers wrong. The Golden Hurricane are ranked No. 1 in the nation in experience, according to kenpom.com, as seven of their top nine players in their rotation are seniors. They have exceptional guard play even though they do not shoot the long ball very well but that has been a problem for Michigan of late as well. The Wolverines are pretty fortunate to be here as well and no one is really taking that into consideration. They needed a run in the Big Ten Tournament and got it thanks to an overtime win over Northwestern and a last second win over Indiana. A loss in either of those would have likely sent Michigan to the NIT but now everyone is already penciling the Wolverines into the matchup with Notre Dame on Friday. The Golden Hurricane are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (621) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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03-15-16 | Vanderbilt v. Wichita State -3 | Top | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Two underachieving teams square off Tuesday in one of the First Four games as Vanderbilt and Wichita St. meet with the winner to face Arizona on Thursday. While both underachieved, they were for different reasons. The Shockers were hit hard by injuries early in the season as they opened just 5-5 after being ranked in the preseason top ten. They are healthy once again and have gone 19-3 over their last 22 games and only an overtime loss in the MVC Semifinals prevented this game from happening. Still, the experience will play a big part as will excellent guard play. Vanderbilt was expected to contend for the SEC title and while it showed signs of being a powerful team, it was too consistent overall. The Commodores have a great frontcourt but they rely on the three-pointer too much and against a very strong Shockers perimeter defense, that will pose to be a problem. The Shockers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss while the Commodores are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (546) Wichita St. Shockers |
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03-15-16 | Florida v. North Florida +7.5 | Top | 97-68 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Florida hits the road to take the short trip to Jacksonville in the first round of the NIT and it clearly has the biggest disadvantage of all of the better seeded teams of this tournament. The Gators are a No. 2 seed in the tournament while the Ospreys are a No. 7 seed. However, the Ospreys will host the game because the O'Connell Center is undergoing renovations. Florida went 4-8 on the road this season but they come in as a big road favorite mainly because it is from a power conference playing against a lower-tiered conference but the SEC was not good once again this season. North Florida won the Atlantic Sun Conference regular season title but lost in the conference championship to Florida Gulf Coast to get relegated to the NIT. This is a big game for the Ospreys as they get a rare home game against a power conference and we have seen many times in the NIT how energized their environments can be. Florida head coach Mike White said Monday it's unclear whether center John Egbunu will even travel with the Gators as he has an injured ligament in his thumb. 10* (558) North Florida Ospreys |
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03-13-16 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M +3.5 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
While the blowout victory may actually take some people off of Texas A&M today, that win was huge for the Aggies in this tournament round. It got ugly early which allowed only four players to log more than 20 minutes on the floor and with this being the third game in three days, that is a big edge. Kentucky trailed early and often and eventually took its lead over Georgia midway past the second half while pulling away late for the cover. The Wildcats have now covered four straight games which is one fewer than Texas A&M and despite the poll rankings and power rankings, they come in as a bigger than expected favorite simply because it is Kentucky. This is the second largest amount of points that the Aggies have gotten all season as their previous biggest pointspread was getting 4.5 points against Gonzaga in a game they won. They were arguably the best team in the conference from start to finish and that will show here. Texas A&M is 11-2 this season following a victory while going 5-0 ATS in its last five games against winning teams. 10* (884) Texas A&M Aggies |
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03-12-16 | Seton Hall +7 v. Villanova | Top | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Villanova survived a temporary scare from Providence yesterday and it was fortunate that Ben Bentil was not even a factor as he fouled out midway through the second half and scored just three points which came after a 38-point effort against Butler the previous day. The Wildcats secured a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament win or lose here and while winning the Big East Tournament championship is still the goal, winning by this much is a stretch. They are clearly the best team in the conference but Seton Hall is playing some of the best basketball in the Big East right now. The Pirates have won 11 of their last 13 games following a tough two-game stretch where they dropped back-to-back games against Villanova and Xavier. While they lost both meetings this season against the Wildcats, both were more competitive than expected which we should see again today. The Pirates are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. 10* (743) Seton Hall Pirates |
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03-12-16 | Connecticut v. Temple +2.5 | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Connecticut survived an epic four-overtime game yesterday against Cincinnati that included a half-court buzzer-beater and those extra minutes will be a factor. The Huskies needed that game badly as they were on the outside looking in for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament but they are now one of the last four teams in so while a win here cements the berth, a loss is not going to kill them. Temple had a much easier game Friday as it took out South Florida by 17 points to make it four straight wins. Aside from a 19-point loss at Tulsa, the Owls have been exceptional by going 144 over their last 18 games with two of the other losses coming by five combined points and the other coming against Villanova. The defeated Connecticut in both of the regular season meetings and while beating a team three times is difficult, the matchup is in their favor as is the situation of the games that took place yesterday. Connecticut is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against winning teams while Temple 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against teams above .500. 10* (740) Temple Owls |
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03-12-16 | LSU +7 v. Texas A&M | Top | 38-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
We won with LSU yesterday as it pulled away from Tennessee in a game that was close throughout and as mentioned, the road to the NCAA Tournament is still not horrible. The Tigers have to win out and his is a very winnable game despite what the line may be suggesting. Texas A&M also won a game that was tight as the Aggies took advantage of Florida that was ice cold from long range, going just 3-19 from beyond the arc. They have now won seven straight games which is a big part in the size of this number. LSU and Texas A&M split their regular season series with both teams winning on their home floor but looking at those lines shows the value that the Tigers are getting here. While LSU is known for having one of the best players in the nation in Ben Simmons, the balance on this team is huge and it showed yesterday with all five starters scoring in double figures. Expect a closer than anticipated game today. 10* (725) LSU Tigers |
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03-11-16 | Memphis v. Tulsa -4 | Top | 89-67 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Many teams are still fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives and one of those is Tulsa. Despite a 12-6 record and a tie for third place in the AAC, the Golden Hurricane are on the outside looking in. A lack of quality wins may be to blame but they have victories over Wichita St., Connecticut, SMU, Cincinnati and Temple so there are plenty of good victories. The issue is not bad losses either as five of those defeats came against the five teams at the top of the conference with the sixth loss coming on the road against Memphis setting up a big payback spot to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Memphis has once again disappointed as the elite days are a thing of the past. The Tigers finished 8-10 in the AAC and has some very bad losses along the way. This will be the second straight season missing the NCAA Tournament and while Memphis is coming off a win last time out, it was against lowly East Carolina and the Tigers are 4-11 ATS this season following a victory. 10* (544) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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03-11-16 | Providence +9 v. Villanova | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Villanova took the Big East Conference regular season championship by two games and is in line for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament which it will probably get win or lose this tournament. The Wildcats easily took care of Georgetown yesterday for their fourth straight victory but the Hoyas have been playing horrible and now they catch a team that could be peaking at the right time. Additionally, they are favored by only 2.5 fewer points here and that line adjustment does not make sense. Providence defeated a very solid Butler team Thursday without much of a problem which was also its fourth straight win following a tough 1-5 stretch. The Friars are a tough matchup this time of year with a strong high/low game and should again give Villanova fits. The teams split the season series and if not for Providence not being able to find the hoop in the first half of the second matchup, a sweep could have been in order. Providence is 7-3 ATS this season away from home against winning teams while the Wildcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win. 10* (565) Providence Friars |
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03-11-16 | Tennessee v. LSU -4.5 | Top | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
LSU is not getting into the NCAA Tournament unless it wins the SEC Tournament and things got a little easier for the Tigers for that to happen. It looked as though they were going to have a tough matchup with Vanderbilt but the Commodores lost to Tennessee yesterday and possibly played themselves out of the big dance. Now, LSU gets to play Tennessee and a win here gets it a step closer to what would not be an unconceivable run. The Volunteers have won their first two games here after an awful ending to the regular season where they dropped four straight and six of seven. While they shot pretty poor yesterday, they committed only six turnovers and a repeat of that is not going to happen. The Tigers closed the regular season with a brutal loss at Kentucky but have new life and going back, the Tigers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a straight up loss while the Volunteers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win. 10* (548) LSU Tigers |
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03-11-16 | Richmond v. Dayton -4.5 | Top | 54-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
Dayton has the best RPI in the Atlantic Ten Conference but now is the time that it needs to step up its games. The Flyers have not been playing very well as they are 3-3 over their last six games with two wins coming in overtime and the other coming by just a single point. That victory happened to come against Richmond but it was on the road and this is a great position for Dayton as it is 10-3 on the highway this season. The Spiders are well down in the conference RPI following an unimpressive win over Fordham on Thursday. That snapped a two-game slide but they are still just 2-5 over their last seven games but are still getting a relatively small number here. A big reason for this is due to the fact Dayton has not covered a game since February 6th, going 0-7-1 ATS over that stretch and this is a streak we love going against. Despite not cashing tickets of late, Dayton is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a favorite in this price range and expect that to continue Friday. 10* (530) Dayton Flyers |
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03-11-16 | Michigan +7 v. Indiana | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
Michigan picked up a big win over Northwestern yesterday in overtime in what was a must win situation for the Wolverines. While many think they are now in the NCAA Tournament, I think they are still in need of one more victory to be assured of an at-large berth. This is a great opportunity for a quality victory over an overrated team. Typically, the regular season winner of the Big Ten is up for No. 1 seed discussions but that is not the case here. Indiana pull off a surprise with the regular season championship but right now it is being projected as a No. 3 seed and a reason for that is due to a soft schedule. The Hoosiers played the second easiest Big Ten schedule behind Illinois and the feeling is they are overpriced here. Plus, you take the Hoosiers way from their home court where they went 17-0, they become a much less dominating team. Additionally, the Hoosiers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. 10* (521) Michigan Wolverines |
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03-10-16 | Creighton v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
Seton Hall is playing some of the best basketball in the Big East Conference as it has won nine of its last 11 games with both losses coming against Butler. Of the Pirates other conference losses, two came against Villanova, another came against Xavier while the last came against Creighton at home by 15 points in its biggest conference loss of the entire season. Seton Hall came out of nowhere this year and after the meltdown at the end of last year, not much was expected of the Pirates this season but they have definitely been a surprise. They own the third best RPI in the conference and can enhance their NCAA Tournament seeding with a big tournament run. Creighton meanwhile had a good season after a disaster from a season ago where it went just 4-14 in the conference. The Bluejays improved by five games but that is still not enough for a legitimate shot at a tournament bid. They would have to win this tournament and that will not be happening. Creighton is just 3-9 against the top 50 and while a win over Seton Hall was one of those, that was a fluke as the Pirates were just 15-28 from the free throw line. 10* (732) Seton Hall Pirates |
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03-10-16 | Alabama +3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
Alabama had snuck into the NCAA Tournament conversation with wins in six of its last eight games while going on a 7-3 run following a 1-5 start in the SEC. Two of the recent three losses have come on the road at South Carolina and Kentucky so those are considered quality losses but a defeat at home against Mississippi St. really hurt the Tide. That was a bad spot however as Alabama was coming off a pair of road upsets at Florida and LSU and a home upset over Texas A&M. A loss to Arkansas dropped the Tide back out of the at-large conversation so now they need a huge run in the SEC Tournament. Mississippi was never in the conversation despite a winning conference record because of a poor RPI that was not helped by playing the easiest schedule in the conference. Both teams were great at home and average on the road and we are getting value with the Tide because of five straight cover losses. Despite that, the Tide are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss while going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (753) Alabama Crimson Tide |
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03-10-16 | Georgia Tech +10 v. Virginia | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Georgia Tech survived round two of the ACC Tournament as it erased an 18-point second half deficit to force overtime and eventually take out Clemson. The Yellow Jackets could be in for a letdown as is often typical but I do not think it happens here as they are a very tough out and could make some noise the next couple days if they catch some breaks. Georgia Tech is not an easy team to take out in tournament play as it possesses both inside and outside strength on both ends of the floor and getting a line this big is just icing on the cake. Virginia has been playing exceptional right now as it has won 11 of its last 13 games with the two losses coming on the road by a combined four points. The Cavaliers are in line for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and they are certainly deserving of it but this is not a great matchup. They are at a big disadvantage on the boards and that was evident in the first meeting this season at Georgia Tech as they were outboarded by 13 in their upset loss. While Virginia has been on a roll, the Yellow Jackets have won six of their last seven games with the lone loss coming at Louisville by only three points. 10* (721) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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