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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-19-19 | Reds +142 v. Padres | Top | 3-2 | Win | 142 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* MONEY-MAKER) I had a play on the Reds in their upset win over the Padres last night and I think they offer great value to do it again here. The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani, who is 0-1 with a 7.43 ERA so far. DeSclafani most recently gave up four runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Cards. Last year he had a respectable 4.18 ERA on the road. Fortunately for DeSclafani, he won’t have to pitch very well to produce his best effort of the season. He also benefits facing the Friars’ Matt Strahm (0-2, 4.26) who comes in off a decent effort vs. the D-Backs, allowing no runs over five innings of work. Strahm lost his first two starts and the book is still out at this point as far as I’m concerned. I give the small nod to DeSclafani here and I like the Reds to build off their win from last night. Overall great value vs. a Padres team which has likely been performing over its head to open the season. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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04-18-19 | Reds +127 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 127 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* TRADE-MARK) Reds’ veteran and new-comer Tanner Roark (0-0, 4.30 ERA) comes in off his best outing so far for the Reds, holding the Cards to one run off six hits with a walk and five K’s over 5 1/3’s innings of work. The home side counters with rookie Chris Paddack (0-0, 1.29) who so far has looked exemplary, but whose sample size is clearly too small to make any definite conclusions. I will point out though that Roark has a long history of success vs. the Friars, going 3-1 with a very respectable 2.90 ERA and 0.742 WHIP and .162 opponents’ batting average. Cincinnati has lost five straight, but I think it punches one into the win column here in this favorable matchup. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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04-17-19 | Red Sox +106 v. Yankees | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Yanks scored the 8-0 win in the first game of this mini two-game series between these AL East foes, but I think the scuffling Red Sox will bounce back here and find a way to deliver the goods tonight. Boston’s 6-12 start is its worst since 1996. But I think this is a great spot to bounce back in. The Yankees are still majority banged up and I think that’s a factor here. The home side goes with JA Happ, who is 0-2 with an 8.76 ERA, most recently allowing six runs off nine hits over four innings to the light-hitting White Sox on Friday. Boston turns to Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 8.40), who also comes in struggling, most recently giving up five runs to the Jays on Thursday. Both pitchers have had success vs. their respective opponent today, so that area is a “wash.” Note though that Boston is 34-28 (+17.3 units) the last two seasons as a road dog of +100 or higher. Additionally note that New York is a poor 1-3 (-5.7 units) already this year after a win by four runs of more. I’m banking on Boston bouncing back. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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04-16-19 | Indians -101 v. Mariners | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BLACK-LABEL) The Tribe welcomed back Jason Kipnis and he made a big impact in last night’s 6-4 win. Cleveland won’t be lacking for motivation here after its poor start. The Mariners though look poised to go on a run of mediocrity after their hot start. The home side goes with Shane Bieber, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Bieber is now 8-0 with a 3.25 ERA over his entire career on the road after a 4-0 win over the Tigers on Thursday. The home side goes with Mike Leake, who is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA. Leake gave up three home runs in a no-decision vs. the Royals on Thursday. I like the hungry visiting side to find a way to get the job done here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tribe. |
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04-15-19 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mets/Phillies over (10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK) Two of the best in the league go head-to-head on the hill tonight, but I still think this total will sneak over this tiny number. The Phillies Aaron Nola is 1-0 with a 6.46 ERA, while the Mets’ Noah Syndergaar is 1-1 with a 4.74 ERA. The Phillies come in off a 3-1 win in Miami, but they’ll be eager to get their bats going after a lacklustre showing in their last series: "I think hitting is one of those things that can be a little bit hit and miss," Phillies manager Gabe Kapler told reporters in Miami. "Sometimes, you have to give credit to the opposition for pitching well. I think that we have the ability to score lots of runs in consecutive games. And I think that's going to happen for us." The Mets come in off consecutive losses in Atlanta and they’ll also be out to get back into the winners circle. With both of these studs not at their “elite best” to open the season, everything points to this total soaring over the number sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Phillies. |
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04-13-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Red Sox under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) After last night’s 6-4 Boston win, I’m expecting more of a “duel” on Saturday afternoon. The Red Sox’ starting pitchers have gotten out to a terrible start, but I think it’s clearly much too early to be panicking quite yet. The home side goes with Rick Porcello (0-2, 13.50 ERA), who won’t have to try too hard to produce his best effort, as so far he’s been a train-wreck early. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner (2-1, 5.28), who is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA this month. Boston manager Cora on Porcello: "I can go to bed and tomorrow wake up and say, 'Yeah, we've got Rick Porcello on the mound,'" Cora said. "We expect him to go deep in the game." I think these two hungry/crafty vets do indeed battle into the latter frames. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Red Sox. |
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04-12-19 | Astros v. Mariners +121 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) Both teams come in on top form. The Mariners return home after a 6-1 road trip, eager to maintain their focus in their first game back from an extended trip. The Astros come in having won six straight, including a recent sweep of the Yankees. Seattle though has homered in all 15 games so far this year and no other club has scored six or more runs in 13 of its first 15 games. The M’s go with Wade LeBlanc, who is 2-0 with a 4.76 ERA, while the Astros hand the ball to Wade Miley, who enters 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA. I think the day off doesn’t do any favors for Houston and I expect it to struggle in this difficult road park. Great value on the hottest team in baseball! T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Mariners. |
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04-11-19 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -119 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indians/Tigers over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) I had a play on the Tigers in their upset win over the Indians yesterday. Both teams will be hungry for a victory here. Detroit has won six of its last seven, but after posting ten hits vs. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer, who had allowed only one hit over his first two trips to the hill. These are two competent starters (Indians go with Shane Bieber and the Tigers hand the ball to Spencer Turnbull), who have gotten out to good starts to the 2019 campaign, but I believe the overall situation points to more of a slug-fest in the rubber-match this afternoon. Cleveland’s seen the total go over in five of its last seven “day” games, while Detroit has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Tribe. |
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04-09-19 | Brewers -117 v. Angels | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -117 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10*) I think the Brewers offer great value to bounce back in the second game of this three-game interleague series after falling 5-2 yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Freddy Peralta, who is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA. Most recently he went eight shutout vs. the Reds, striking out 11 and walking none. The home side counters with the volatile Matt Harvey, who is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. Harvey gave up eight runs off ten hits over four innings in a loss to Texas on Thursday. I think we’re getting great value on the hard-hitting visiting side in this match-up. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. |
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04-09-19 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rangers/Diamondbacks under (10*) Two veteran starters collide in this interleague matchup and while each has struggled to open the 2019 campaign, I’m expecting each to battle deep into this one, ultimately helping in contributing to this one falling below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Mike Minor is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA to open for the Rangers, while Arizona veteran Zack Greinke is 1-1 with a 9.31 ERA. Clearly neither can be happy, but I think it’s much too early to push the panic button yet for either starter. Note as well that Texas has seen the total go under the number in three of four on the road already this year, while Arizona has seen the total dip under in 41 of its last 71 as home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 D-Backs. |
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04-08-19 | Yankees +142 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* TRADE-MARK) Clearly it wouldn’t be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these talented sides to win here. The Yankees’ are dealing with injuries, but after a slow start the Yanks are “firing on all cylinders” after sweeping the Orioles in Baltimore. I think that New York carries that offensive momentum over here. Masahiro Tanaka is already 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA, while Justin Verlander is 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA. I’m calling the pitchers a “wash.” Note though that New York is interestingly 2-0 in its last two after scoring 15 or more runs in its previous outing, while Houston is still only 1-3 vs. the AL East this year. Great value on the hot hitting visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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04-07-19 | A's +143 v. Astros | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: A’s (10* TRADE-MARK) The Astros have taken the first two games of this series, but I think that Mike Fiers and the visitors offer great value here. Fiers is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA to open the season and while Brad Peacock shone in his first outing for the Astros, giving up one run over 6 2/3’s inning in a 2-1 win over the Rangers on April 1st, I think he’ll have his hands full with an A’s team which is still 3-0 (+3 units) in all “day” games this year and 40-35 (+9.8 units) in its last 75 after having lost three of its last four. Great value on the hungry visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Oakland. |
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04-06-19 | Yankees v. Orioles +166 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (10* TRADE-MARK). I think JA Happ and the Yanks are over-priced once again here. New York is dealing with several key injuries to sluggers and starters and I don’t think that Happ has that big of an advantage over his counterpart Dylan Bundy either. New York has 11 players on the IL, but it still managed the 8-4 win in the series opener. Happ though, who is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA, looks ripe for the picking in my opinion. Happ would give up four runs off five hits win one walk over four innings in a loss to these very Orioles on Sunday and it’s not going to get any easier in my opinion in this difficult road venue. Bundy, who is 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA, most recently gave up three runs off two hits with five walks over 3.2 innings to the Yanks last weekend. I like Bundy to match Happ inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Orioles. |
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04-05-19 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks +118 | Top | 8-15 | Win | 118 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10*) Both of these starting pitchers were rocked in their respective season debuts. Each of these teams has gotten out to a poor overall start as well to the 2019 campaign. Suffice it to say, I can’t understate how important I think that the home field advantage will be in this one. Rick Porcello (0-1, 13.50 ERA) goes against the Diamondbacks’ Zack Godley (0-1, 11.81). But despite Arizona’s record, it’s been hitting the ball well, .280 collectively with 14 home runs and 22 doubles in seven games. Boston’s issues are coming both on the mound and at the plate this year and I think it’s not going to get any easier for it here. Great overall value on the home side in this one. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 D-Backs. |
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04-03-19 | Cardinals -103 v. Pirates | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (10* TRADE-MARK) The Cards stole Game 1 of this series 6-5 in 11 innings in Monday and after a day off, I look for the visitors to build off that win. "The offense scratched and clawed," Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said. "I mean, what do you say about that kind of game? It's crazy. That's what this team does. It speaks to the competitiveness of this team and the desire of this team. This is a good team with a lot of character and a lot of fight to it." Cards’ starter Miles Mikolas (0-1, 9.00 ERA) and Pirates’ starter Jameson Taillon (0-1, 6.00), would clearly love ‘do overs’ after their first game of the year. Mikolas though is 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Pirates. Taillon is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA in eight starts vs. St. Louis. I like Mikolas to bounce back here; great value. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. |
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04-02-19 | Rockies +131 v. Rays | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* BLACK-LABEL) The only loss the Rays have suffered this year was when ace Blake Snell took the mound. Snell was rocked for five earned runs off six hits with two walks over six innings vs. the Astros. The Rockies’ Kyle Freeland looked great in his first start though, giving up two hits and one earned run over seven innings of work. After yesterday’s 7-1 setback, I like the hard-hitting visiting side to respond. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Rockies. |
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04-01-19 | Orioles +150 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-5 | Win | 150 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles (10* TRADE-MARK) I think that the home side is getting far too much respect here. The Orioles come in brimming with confidence after taking two of three in New York. The Jays went 2-2 in their opening series vs. the Tigers. Baltimore turns to David Hess, while Toronto goes with Sean Reid-Foley. Foley is being forced into a starters role due to an injury to Clayton Richards. Over seven starts last year Reid-Foley was 2-4 with a 5.13 ERA. Hess on the other faced the Jays three times last year and went 1-1 with a minuscule 0.95 ERA. Great price on the “better” team here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Orioles. |
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03-31-19 | Giants +143 v. Padres | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Giants (10* SUPER SIDE) 23 year old Chris Paddack will make his major league debut today for the Padres. Paddack returns from Tommy John Surgery and he’d post a sharp 3-1, 1.76 ERA and 24 K’s vs. three walks over 15 1/3’s innings of work. Great numbers, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie. Giants’ starter Jeff Samardija’s best days are far behind him, but I think the veteran will have more than enough in the tank in his first start of the year. The Shark was just 1-5 with a 6.25 ERA for San Francisco last year, hampered by injury for most of it (note that he is 8-3 with a 3.64 ERA in 17 games vs. the Friars as well.) I think this is great line value for sure. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 San Fran. |
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03-30-19 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yanks under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) This is James Paxton’s regular season debut for the Yanks. This is the third game between these teams to open the 2019 campaign. Orioles’ starter Nate Karns who returns to a starters roll after battling injury over the last year and a half. Note that Karns is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in five starts spanning 27 frames of work vs. New York. Paxton was 11-6 in 28 starts last year with a 3.76 ERA. The flame-thrower struck out 208 batters in 160 1/3 innings and he won his lone start vs. Baltimore in 2018, limiting it to two earned runs while striking out ten over seven innings of work. I think the stage is set for a classic “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Yanks. |
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03-29-19 | Giants v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Giants/Padres over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) The Padres came out on top of a lower-scoring 2-0 win over San Francisco last night, but I expect a much more wide-open, high-scoring “slug-fest” this time around. The Giants’ Derek Holland was 7-9 with a 3.57 ERA last year and the southpaw has not won more than seven games since 2013. Holland faced the Friars five times last year and he went a poor 1-1 with a 5.47 ERA. He went against the Padres Joey Lucchesi once time last season and gave up four runs off five hits over five innings, with San Diego ultimately prevailing 5-4 in that one. Lucchesi was 8-9 with a 4.08 ERA overall last season. Note though that the “over” is 5 and 1 in Lucchesi’s last six home starts. Also note that San Francisco has seen the total go over in five of its last seven vs. southpaws. This number is a little low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Padres. |
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03-28-19 | Diamondbacks +145 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-12 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 13 m | Show |
: T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* GAME OF MONTH) Two teams which will almost assuredly be “duking it out” for supremacy in the National League at the end of the season, collide on Opening Night in Chavez Ravine. The Diamondbacks’ Zack Greinke returns to his old stomping grounds and I believe the veteran offers great value here to pull off the upset. Greinke had a disappointing 4.37 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his first year with the Diamondbacks, but since then he’s posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the last two years. Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the nod here for the home side because ace Clayton Kershaw is on the shelf for a couple more weeks. Ryu had a decent spring and is coming off a career campaign in 2018 (7-3, 1.97), but I still think he’s getting far too much respect on Opening night. I’ll grab the hungry visiting side and Greinke to open the 2019 season! T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Diamondbacks. |
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03-21-19 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mariners/A’s over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Seattle won the first game of the 2019 season by a score of 9-7. Fan favorite Ichiro Suzuki saw limited time for the M’s in front of his home country crowd. Seattle got three hits from Tim Beckham and he also scored three times. Jay Bruce also had a nice debut for the M’s, singling for MLB’s first hit of the year, while Edwin Encarnacion scored twice. But Domingo Santa had a grand slam for Seattle which turned out to be the difference. Several Oakland batters had big nights as well, including Khris Davis, Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty. I expect these offenses to once again “go yard” against Mariners rookie Yusei Kikuchi, who makes his MLB debut here in front of his home country fans, while the A’s send Marco Estrada to counter, the 35 year old veteran finished with a 5.64 ERA and 7-14 record last season. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 A’s. |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox +145 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* TRADE-MARK) With a chance to take a “choke hold” on this series, I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox to find a way to get the job done in Game 3. Boston’s Porcello has appeared in 10.2 innings so far in the playoffs and he’s given up five runs. The Dodgers’ Buehler has been shelled for ten runs over 16 innings in the post-season thus far. Note that LA is 0-5 in its last five following a day off, while Boston is 5-0 in its last five playoff road games and 7-1 in Porcello’s last eight starts. The Red Sox are hammering out 6.18 RPG in the playoffs. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Red Sox. |
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10-16-18 | Red Sox +126 v. Astros | Top | 8-2 | Win | 126 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* GAME OF WEEK) Based entirely upon the starting pitching. The Red Sox Nate Eovaldi gave up one run over seven innings in his playoff debut last week and he’s had plenty of success against the Astros throughout his career, posting a 3.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The Astros’ Dallas Keuchel comes in off a decent season and he’s enjoyed plenty of success in the playoffs, but note that he’s had a hell of a time whenever he’s faced the Red Sox, giving up 20 runs off 28 hits over just 19.2 innings of work. I’m look for Eovaldi to get the better of Keuchel. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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10-13-18 | Astros +111 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 111 | 59 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Astros (10* GAME OF WEEK) Justin Verlander and Chris Sale. Clearly it’s not very difficult to make a convincing argument for either of these elite hurlers. Take a look at these line-ups as well, they’re pretty evenly matched, with a lot of power and talent from top to bottom. So if either of these starters and either of these line-ups can beat the other “on any given Sunday,” where’s the advantage here? It’s two fold. I do indeed believe that the experience that Verlander brings to the table in this pressure packed situation plays into it (along with the experience the Astros have as a team), as well as noting that Houston is 58-24 (+25.8 units) on the road this season and 29-16 (+1.5 units) already after three or more consecutive victories. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Astros. |
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10-08-18 | Red Sox +160 v. Yankees | Top | 16-1 | Win | 160 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* GAME OF WEEK) These teams are evenly matched. While Luis Severino owns the advantage on the mound, I don’t think it’s by as much as the bookmakers would like us to believe. The Red Sox’ Eovaldi was 6-7 with a 3.71 ERA this year. He was supposed to be used out of the bullpen, but he’s bumped up to make this start. He posted a steady 1.14 WHIP with 97 strikeouts over 109 innings. Severino had an unreal first half and a terrible second half for the Yanks. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the hard-throwing right-hander, I simply feel he’s over-priced here. As note that the Sox are 7-2 in their last nine American League night road games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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10-07-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +165 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 165 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* TRADE-MARK) No sweep LA fans. After getting shutout in LA over the first two games (6-0, 3-0), I definitely look for the Braves to “get off the schneid” in front of the home town crowd. The Dodgers’ send Walker Buehler to the hill and he’s had a remarkable rookie season. He went 6.2 shutout innings in Game 163 in his team’s 4-2 win over the Rockies. The Braves turn to Sean Newcomb, who had a strong first half and sub-par second. With the shift in venue though, I think LA comes in complacent and takes the foot off the gas. The Braves’ bats have been quiet so far, but that ends tonight. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Braves. |
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10-04-18 | Braves +160 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* GAME OF MONTH) The Braves go with the red hot Mike Foltynewicz, who posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in the regular season. He’s had difficulties with the Dodgers in the past, but that was then and this is now. Note that the Braves are averaging 4.69 RPG, which ranks ninth overall. The pitching staff posted a 3.75 ERA, ranked seventh. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu instead of ace Clayton Kershaw. He posted a 1.97 ERA and 1.01 WHOP over 15 starts this year. He’s had a lot of success against the Braves in the past, but once again, that was then and this is now. LA averaged 4.93 RPG, ranked fifth and the pitching staff posted a 3.38 ERA, ranked second. I ultimately think that the Dodgers get caught wondering why they didn’t put Kershaw in to start this one and I like Foltynewicz to continue his recent surge. Great value. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. |
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10-01-18 | Rockies +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* BLACK-LABEL) Two really great pitchers here. But in a “one and done” format, anything can happen. And in a situation like that, with German Marquez as hot as he is right now, I think the value swings to the underdog here. Walker Buehler has been amazing as well and he’s had plenty of success against the Rockies already this season and throughout his career (so too has Marquez against the Dodgers, both this year and lifetime.) With these starters a “wash” then, I think the Rockies in fact have the advantage at the plate (note as well the Colorado is 7-2 in its last nine National League day road games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range.) LA is overpriced, play on the hungry underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rockies. |
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09-28-18 | Tigers +194 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* TRADE-MARK) Are the Brewers better at the plate than the Tigers? Absolutely. Is Zach Davies worthy of having a line of this size against Jordan Zimmermann? I say unequivocally, NO! Davies is supremely over-valued here in my opinion. Zimmermann is 7-8 with a 4.31 ERA and he comes in off a decent outing against the Royals. Note that he comes in sporting a respectable 3.99 ERA on the road. Davies is 2-7 with a 4.65 ERA and he’s split his time between the major and minors all year, while also spending a stint on the DL. Note that he’s 1-5 with a 6.35 ERA in all “night” games as well. Great value, play on Detroit. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tigers. |
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09-27-18 | Pirates +150 v. Cubs | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* GAME OF YEAR) I’m expecting the Pirates’ Trevor Williams to out-duel his veteran counterpart tonight. Williams is 14-9 with a 3.04 ERA and he comes in off back-to-back strong performances against the dangerous Brewers. He’s now allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of this last 12 outings. He’s also 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA on the road and 9-5 with a 2.95 ERA in all “night” games. Lester is 17-6 with a 3.43 ERA, including 6-4 with a 3.96 ERA at home. Note though that the Cubs are just 2-7 in their last nine National League evening home contests in which they’re a favorite in the -135 to -165 range. I like Williams to continue his hot play and get the better of Lester. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Pirates. |
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09-26-18 | Brewers +102 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 102 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* TRADE-MARK) I think Chacin and the Brewers can get the job done here on on the road on Wednesday night. Chacin is 14-8 with a 3.61 ERA and he’s consistently been at his on the road all season, coming into this one sporting the strong 9-3, 3.29 ERA record to this point. The Cards’ Gant is 7-6 with a 3.53 ERA and he for the most part has been sharp all year. Gant though comes in with the rather pedestrian 5-5, 4.01 ERA record at home. I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is a sharp 7-2 in its last nine National League road night games as an underdog in the +100 to +125 range. Pull the trigger on the under-valued underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. |
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09-25-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +181 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 181 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the big home dog. The Dodgers’ Walker Buehler is 7-5 with a 2.74 ERA and overall he’s been fantastic. I simply feel that he’s over-priced in this difficult road venue. The Diamondbacks’ Matt Koch comes in with a serviceable 5-5, 4.26 ERA record. The third-year pro has admittedly been hit or miss this year, but he’s consistently been at his best at home with a sharp 2.92 ERA. These line-ups are not evenly matched, as Arizona enjoys the advantage at home. I smell an upset. Great value, play on the Diamondbacks. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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09-24-18 | Phillies +125 v. Rockies | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* GAME OF WEEK) I think Eflin and the Phillies can get the job done at Coors Field on Monday night. Eflin is 11-7 with a 4.09 ERA and he finally got back on track after a rough stretch with a decent effort against the Marlins last time out. Eflin’s been better at home than on the road, but he’s been consistent in all “night” contests with a 9-6, 3.96 ERA. The Rockies’ Anderson is just 6-9 with a 4.76 ERA and he’s struggled in the thin air of Colorado, going just 2-6 with a 4.92 ERA at home so far. I like Eflin to build off his last start. Great value, play on Philadelphia. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Phillies. |
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09-23-18 | Brewers v. Pirates +112 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
NO ACTION PITCHING CHNAGE |
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09-22-18 | Mariners +104 v. Rangers | Top | 13-0 | Win | 104 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) I like the M’s to bounce back after yesterday’s 8-3 setback. Marco Gonzalez has been decent all year, he’s 12-9 with a 4.28 ERA and he most recently went five innings in a no-decision to LA on Sunday, allowing three runs off six hits and striking out six (owns a 3.31 ERA in all “night” games.) The Rangers’ Minor is 12-7 with a 4.14 ERA and the seven year veteran continues to pitch consistently almost every time he takes the mound. These are two pretty good starters going head to head here and I believe they’re a “wash” for the most part. The difference? Seattle is 27-23 against left-handed starters this season, while Texas is just 20-30 against southpaws. Look for Seattle to bounce back on Saturday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 M’s. |
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09-21-18 | Rockies +115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 115 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) German Marquez has been on fire over the last month and he’s been fantastic on the road overall this year. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on a play of this magnitude. Marquez, who is 12-10 with a 3.96 ERA, comes in off back-to-back dominating outings and note that he’s 7-4 with a 2.74 ERA on the road. The Diamondbacks’ Godley is 14-10 with a 4.79 ERA. After a shaky start he’s been much better over the second half, but he still owns a pedestrian 4.50 ERA in all “night” games. Godley’s been hit or miss this year, while Marquez is clearly getting stronger as the season comes to a close. I look for that trend to continue here. Great value, play on Colorado. NOTE: Greinke snow in for the D-Backs. THIS PLAY IS STILL VALID. Greinke’s 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA and he’s been better at home than on the road, but I don’t think the last minute date changing is helping the veteran out too much at this point of the season. The advantage is still to Marquez. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rockies. |
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09-20-18 | White Sox +174 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 174 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* TRADE-MARK) I think it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog. This pick is based primarily on the fact that Indians’ pitcher Josh Tomlin (1-5, 6.49 ERA) who remains in the starting rotation out of necessity, has been nothing special whatsoever this year. He’ll be moved back to the bullpen once the playoffs start and note that he’s a poor 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA at home this season. White Sox’ starter James Shields (7-16, 4.53) has been more miss than hit this year, but he comes in off consecutive strong outings and I think he offers great value to carry that momentum over here. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 White Sox. |
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09-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies +115 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 115 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I like Zach Eflin to find a way to get the job done at home here. The Mets’ Syndergaard is 12-3 with a 3.26 ERA and he most recently went seven scoreless against the Red Sox on Friday. Syndergaard though has been trading good starts with bad since early August and I absolutely expect that trend to carry over here. Eflin is 10-7 with a 4.26 ERA and after a stretch of futility throughout August, he’d finally bounce back with a decent effort against the Marlins in his latest start. Eflin will now look to close out strong and he’ll be confident in this spot for sure, as note that he’s 7-3 with a 3.28 ERA at home. Give me the hungry home underdog in this one. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. |
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09-18-18 | Mets +170 v. Phillies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Looks like a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry underdog pitcher. The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz, who is 5-11 with a 4.18 ERA. He’s enjoyed a much more consistent second half performance and he comes in on top form, having thrown two straight gems. The Phillies’ Aaron Nola is 16-5 with a 2.42 ERA. He’s been trading good starts with bad of late and most recently he comes in off a shaky outing against the Nationals last Wednesday. Nola’s been great obviously and he has the tools in place to cap off his best season ever, but I still think he’s over priced here. Note as well that the Phillies are just 2-6 in their last eight home games as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. Great value on the visitors in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Mets. |
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09-17-18 | Mets +104 v. Phillies | Top | 9-4 | Win | 104 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* GAME OF WEEK) Zach Wheeler has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball over the last two months. Wheeler is 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA and he owns a sharp 1.13 WHIP along with 175 strikeouts over his 167.1 innings. He most recently shutout the Fish over eight innings on Wednesday. He’ll face the Phillies’ Arrieta, who is 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA, but who has struggled some over the second half. Note that Philadelphia is just 2-7 in its last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -105 to -125 range. Look for the red hot Wheeler to continue his incredible form. Play on the Mets. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Mets. |
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09-15-18 | Pirates +145 v. Brewers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 145 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* TRADE MARK) I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the under-valued underdog visiting side. The Pirates’ Nova is 8-9 with a 4.17 ERA and he returns to the rotation after a short stint on the DL. While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that the Pirates have in fact excelled in this spot by going 7-1 in their last eight National League road night games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. Nova catches a break as well facing the Brewers’ Davies, who is 2-5 with a 4.75 ERA and who has split time between the minors and major all season. Home field has been anything but an advantage for Davies, who is just 1-3 with a 4.92 ERA in Milwaukee. Look for the opportunistic Pirates to come out on top of this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Bucs. |
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09-13-18 | Mariners -101 v. Angels | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) I like the crafty Mike Leake and the opportunistic Mariners to find a way to get the job done in this one. Leake is 9-9 with a 4.11 ERA and he comes in off consecutive strong outings. Leake’s been far from perfect, but he’s been better than serviceable. His numbers are respectable, with the 4.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 109:33 K/BB over 171 innings. The Angels’ Shoemaker is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA and he most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings in a win over the punch-less White Sox on Saturday. Since returning from the DL Shoemaker has looked decent, but note that he’s yet to pitch into the sixth inning. Clearly Shoemaker faces a stiff test here. I like Leake to push his counterpart and deliver the goods. Great value on the Mariners. NOTE: There’s been a late pitching change for the Angels, as Shoemaker will start tomorrow and Odrisamer Despaigne is in. This play is still valid. Despaigne is 2-2 with a 6.40 ERA and he’s been used mostly in relief. Note that he’s 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in all “night” games. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mariners. |
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