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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-01-19 | Cubs +112 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (10* GAME OF YEAR) St. Louis won the opener 2-1 on Tuesday, before Chicago rebounded with a 2-0 win last night. These NL Central foes are now tied for first in the division. Chicago gets an offensive boost today after acquiring slugger Nick Castellanos from the Tigers. The Cards hand the ball to Jack Flaherty, who is 4-6 with a 4.17 ERA overall this year and who has posted a 1.48 ERA over his past four starts. Flaherty though is a sub-par 1-2 with a 4.90 ERA in seven career games vs. the Cubbies. Chicago starter Jon Lester is 9-6 with a 3.63 ERA this year and just went seven scoreless vs. the Brewers on Saturday. Unlike his counterpart though, Lester has enjoyed success vs. his opponent today, going 8-5 with a 2.99 ERA in 19 career starts vs. the Cardinals. I like Lester in this matchup and I expect Chicago to build off yesterday’s victory. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Cubs GAME OF YEAR |
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08-01-19 | Twins v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins/Marlins under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER). Jordan Yamamoto is 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA and while he’s struggled over his last three starts, I believe he’ll settle down here vs. Michael Pineda and the Twins. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series and I’m expecting a bit of a “duel” in the finale. Pineda comes in on top form having gone 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA over his last eight starts (Pineda is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in one start vs. Miami.) As mentioned above, Yamamoto has struggled over the last month, but note that he’s been at his best in all “night” games this year by going 3-1 with a tiny 2.48 ERA. I think this one sneaks under once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Twins. |
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07-31-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards under (10*) For a number of different reasons I think this one sets up as duel between the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks, who is 7-8 with a 3.26 ERA and the Cards’ Miles Mikolas, who is 7-10 with a 4.19 ERA. St. Louis took the series opener 2-1 last night and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Mikolas comes in off a strong start vs. Pittsburgh, allowing three runs over six innings (Mikolas is also 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in eight career games vs. Chicago.) Hendricks is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 16 career starts vs. St. Louis. This one sets up as a “duel.” T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Cardinals. |
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07-31-19 | Mets v. White Sox +153 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10*) I think that Jacob deGrom and Lucas Giolito are a “wash” here. deGrom is 6-7 with a 2.86 ERA, while Giolito is 11-5 with a 3.52 ERA. Giolito comes in off a horrible outing, but he’s been great overall this year and I think he’ll be able to match deGrom inning for inning. That then swings the pendulum in favor of the underdog in my opinion. This one has all the makings of a classic upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 White Sox. |
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07-30-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) These clubs are both pushing for a playoff spot. Neither starter has been great this year either, as Yu Darvish is just 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA for Chicago, while Adam Wainwright is only 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great as a higher-scoring slug-fest, but the numbers/trends also point that direction as well, as note that Chicago has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 20 as a road dog this season, while St. Louis has seen the total go over in five of its last six after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Cards. |
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07-30-19 | Astros v. Indians +105 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Indians had Monday off and this is the opener of a nine-game home stand. Despite having to face Houston ace Justin Verlander, I believe that Shane Bieber and the surging home side offer great value in this spot. Bieber most recently allowed one hit and struck out ten in a 4-0 shutout over the Jays on Wednesday. Verlander gave up one run over six innings in a 4-2 win over the A’s in his last start. But the Indians are a sharp 26-16 (+5.2 units) this year after a loss and I believe they’re going to find a way to get the job done here as well. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Indians. |
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07-29-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +140 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 140 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Dodgers failed to complete the sweep in Philadelphia and I think they’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. I believe the starters are a “wash;” the visitors go with Kenta Maeda, who is 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA, while the home side goes with Jon Gray, who is 9-7 with a 4.05 ERA. The Rockies are on the cusp of being “sellers” at the trade deadline after going 9-22, but I think they put it together here in this very favorable situational spot. Great value on the hungry home side tonight. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Rockies. |
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07-29-19 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Nationals under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two teams known for their offensive prowess go head to head in this series. Two pitchers who come in red hot also collide though and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Braves’ Dallas Keuchel has had issues with the Nationals in the past, but in his last start he gave up two runs over six innings to go along with 12 strikeouts in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Royals. The Braves lost two key sluggers as well recent in Nick Markakis and Dansby Swanson. Nationals’ starter Patrick Corbin is 8-5 with a 3.25 ERA overall, but he’s 5-1 with a 1.85 ERA in ten games vs. Atlanta lifetime (Corbin also enters off a strong performance, going six scoreless vs. Colorado in front of the home town crowd.) I look for these starter to battle deep and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Nationals. |
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07-28-19 | Yankees +162 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-6 | Win | 162 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* U of U BOB) The Yankees have easily been the best team in the AL this year, but the Red Sox have easily taken the first three games of this four-game series. But I think that New York will bounce back and find a way to get the job done in the finale. Domingo German is 12-2 with a 4.03 ERA for the Yanks this year, while Chris Sale is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA for Boston. Sale’s sure looked a lot better of late after a horrible start to the 2019 campaign. German comes in off his worst start of the season, getting knocked around for eight runs over three innings, he’s been decent throughout his career vs. the Red Sox by posting a 4.10 ERA over three appearances. But this pick is more about New York fighting for respect here after getting man handled so easily over the first three games of this series (note as well that the Yanks are already 5-1 this year when playing with triple revenge vs. an opponent.) This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Yanks. |
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07-27-19 | Rangers +173 v. A's | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10*) Adrian Sampson is horrible. He’s just 6-7 with a 5.19 ERA this year. But so too is Oakland’s Homer Bailey, who is 8-7 with a 5.42 ERA. Besides Oakland comes in sputtering right now having lost three straight. Bailey looked decent in his debut for the A’s, but then he got blasted in an 11-1 loss to the Astros in his next outing. Bailey’s faced the Rangers twice this year (while with the Royals) and he’s been destroyed, posting a 10.13 ERA and losing both contests badly (16-1, 6-2.) Sampson faced the A’s in June and pitched his only complete game of his career in the 3-1 win. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Rangers. |
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07-26-19 | Pirates v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Mets over (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL). Neither of these starters instills much confidence. Zach Wheeler is 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA for the Mets, while rookie Dario Agrazal is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Pirates. Wheeler last pitched on July 7th, allowing six runs over five innings in an 8-3 loss to the Phillies. Pittsburgh will be desperate to break a six-game slide, but Agrazal is likely to have his hands full here, as note that the Pirates have seen the total fly over the number in 25 of 38 this year when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5. Additionally note that the Mets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of 17 this season in the same position. This number is a tad low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Mets. |
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07-26-19 | Rockies +132 v. Reds | Top | 12-2 | Win | 132 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* MONEY-MAKER) I think the Rockies and German Marquez have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one despite facing Reds’ ace Luis Castillo. Marquez is 9-5 with a 4.99 ERA this year, while Castillo is 9-3 with a 2.36 ERA. Colorado won for just the second time in its last 11 outings after winning 8-7 in the ninth inning in Washington on Thursday. Both Marquez and Castillo come off strong outings, so I’m calling the starters a “wash.” Note though that Colorado is interestingly 9-5 (+5.8 units) already this season after playing six or more consecutive road games, while Cincinnati is just 1-6 (-5.3 units) this year off a one run loss vs. a division rival. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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07-25-19 | Twins v. White Sox +135 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10*) Jose Berrios is 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA for the Twins, while Lucas Giolito is 11-4 with a 3.12 ERA for the White Sox. Berrios is 0-1 with a 3.45 ERA over three July starts. Giolito has been a bright spot for the Chi-Sox all season long and he enters off a gem vs. the Rays, allowing one run with nine strikeouts over seven innings in the victory. Note that he pitched five shutout frames vs. Minnesota on June 30th in Chicago already this year and I believe he’ll do it again tonight. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 White Sox. |
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07-25-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yankees/Red Sox under (10*) Masahiro Tanaka is 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA for the Yankees, while Rick Porcello is 8-7 with a 5.61 ERA for the Red Sox. This is the first time the teams have met in Boston this season. These two pitchers met in London in a two-game series and neither made it out of the first inning. Porcello gave up six runs, while Tanaka was also rocked for six as well. Clearly something about the atmosphere/surroundings played a part in each of these normally steady hurlers performance that day. Both sides feature plenty of home run power, but I think the overall situation points to a lower-scoring “duel,” as I look for these hungry hurlers to battle deep into the latter frames as they set out to atone for their earlier disappointing performances. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Yanks. |
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07-24-19 | Royals v. Braves UNDER 10 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Braves under (10* TRADE-MARK) Two red hot hurlers collide in this interleague contest and I believe that runs will be at a premium. The Royals’ Brad Keller is 6-9 with a 4.18 ERA, while the Braves’ Julio Teheran is 5-6 with a 3.61 ERA overall this year. Keller though is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA with 16 K’s over 20 innings of work this month, while Teheran has posted a tiny 1.53 ERA in June spanning 17 2/3’s innings of work. I think the writing is on the wall and a classic “duel” is in the cards. Considering the recent form of these starters, I think this number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Braves. |
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07-24-19 | Indians v. Blue Jays +118 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* BANKROL BUILDER) Marcus Stroman is 6-10 with a 3.06 ERA for Toronto and he could be throwing for the Jays for the very last time tonight. Stroman is one of the big names rumored to be shipped out by the trade deadline, so clearly the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be lacking for motivation today. Toronto looks to build off its 2-1, ten-inning victory last night vs. Shane Bieber, who is 9-3 with a 3.69 ERA. Note that Stroman is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in seven appearances vs. Cleveland, while Bieber is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two career appearances vs. Toronto. I like Stroman at home though in what I believe to be a very sharp “spot bet.” Play on Toronto. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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07-23-19 | Padres v. Mets +115 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10*) I’m making a play both on the “under” and on the home side in this game. I simply feel that the veteran Jason Vargas is going to match Padres rookie Chris Paddack inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I definitely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Paddack blanked the Mets over eight innings on May 6th. Vargas comes in off a win over the Twins, allowing three runs over six innings. Note though that San Diego is just 7-12 vs. southpaws this season, while New York is 9-5 in its last 14 at home when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Mets. |
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07-23-19 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres/Mets under (10*) I’m making a play both on the “under” and on the home side in this game. I simply feel that the veteran Jason Vargas is going to match Padres rookie Chris Paddack inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I definitely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Paddack blanked the Mets over eight innings on May 6th. Vargas comes in off a win over the Twins, allowing three runs over six innings. Note though that San Diego has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 18 vs. left-handed starters, while New York has seen the total dip under in seven of 11 as a home underdog. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Mets. |
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07-22-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/D-Backs under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Aaron Brooks is just 2-3 with a 4.69 ERA and while he’s been “hit or miss” in a starters role for the lowly Orioles, this play is almost entirely based upon Arizona starter Robbie Ray, who is 8-6 with a 3.92 ERA this year and who is rumored to be on the trading block. Ray will want to be at his best for any possible suitors, which includes the Yankees. Ray comes in on top form, having won three straight trips to the hill, allowing a combined six runs over 19 innings with eight walks and 23 K’s in that span. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 14 this year after allowing one run or less, while Arizona has seen the total go under in ten of its last 14 at home when the total is set between 9 and 9.5. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 D-Backs. |
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07-22-19 | A's +203 v. Astros | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oakland A’s (10* GAME OF WEEK) Homer Bailey is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA for the A’s after dominating the Mariners in his first start for his new club, holding Seattle to two runs while striking out six over six innings on Wednesday. Bailey is 8-6 with a 4.69 ERA overall this year and he’s also enjoyed plenty of success vs. Houston throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA in eight career starts vs. it. The Astros’ Gerrit Cole is 10-5 with a 3.12 ERA this year and he’s also enjoyed plenty of success vs. Oakland, however I think that Bailey can match him inning for inning tonight. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry dog, which won’t be lacking for motivation sitting 6.5 games back of their host. Play on Oakland. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 A’s. |
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07-20-19 | Nationals +150 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 150 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10* CASH MACHINE) Mike Soroka is 10-1 with a 2.24 ERA. Clearly the Braves rookie has been exceptional this year, but Anibal Sanchez and the hungry Nationals won’t be going down without a fight today. Sanchez is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts already vs. the Braves and he hasn’t lost to them since 2012. Washington is also 10-6 (+6.5 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while Atlanta is just 14-15 in its last 29 off a one run win off a division rival. As mentioned off the top, I think the hungry visiting side offers great value in this spot. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals. |
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07-19-19 | Rangers +199 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* TRADE-MARK) I think that Justin Verlander and the Astros are over-priced in this one. Verlander is putting together another great season, but I think that his counterpart Mike Minor will match him inning for inning. The Rangers won’t be lacking for motivation either after losing four straight. Look for Minor to go deep and for the hungry dog to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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07-17-19 | Padres v. Marlins +133 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (10* TRADE-MARK) The Marlins pulled off the 12-7 win last night and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here vs. the suddenly struggling Padres, who enter having lost four in a row. Chris Paddack is 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA this year, while Trevor Richards is 3-10 with a 4.18 ERA. I think these starters are a “wash,” but I’ll point out that San Diego is 6-9 (-8.5 units) as a favorite of -150 or higher, while Miami is interestingly 7-4 (+4.8 units) this year vs. the NL West. Great value on the home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Marlins. |
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07-15-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +150 | Top | 16-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Clayton Kershw is 7-2 with a 3.09 ERA for the Dodgers and he was just in the All Star Game. He has plenty of success vs. the Phillies as well. Philadelphia starter Zach Eflin is 7-8 with a 3.78 ERA and he’s struggled throughout his career vs. the Dodgers. LA is the league’s best team, but it comes in “dog tired” after a 12 innings victory at Boston last night. I think the hungry Phillies take advantage. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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07-14-19 | Astros v. Rangers +202 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* CASH MACHINE) Justin Verlander is obviously one of the best pitchers on the planet, but I still think he’s over-priced on the road in this one. Verlander comes in struggling as he’s allowed at least one home run in each of his previous five starts, posting a poor 1-2, 4.91 ERA in the process. The home side goes with Ariel Jurado, who is 5-4 with a 4.23 ERA and who is 1-0 with 0.93 ERA over three career appearances vs. the Astros. I like Texas to take command with a big victory at home. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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07-13-19 | Astros v. Rangers +120 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* TRADE-MARK) The Rangers go for the sweep of the Astros tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley, who is 7-4 with a 3.28 ERA this season (note that Houston is just 5-4 in his last nine starts.) Miley is a poor 3-5 with a 5.56 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Rangers. Texas’ starter Mike Minor is 8-4 with a 2.54 ERA this year and 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA over his last six starts (note that Minor is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two outings vs. Houston this season.) I like Minor to easily out duel Miley and I look for the home side to take full advantage. Great price on this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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07-12-19 | Rays v. Orioles +144 | Top | 16-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) The Rays were a big surprise over the first two months of the season, but Tampa Bay scuffled down the stretch of the first half and I believe that trend carries over here vs. a Baltimore team which turned things around considerably before the Mid-Summer Classic. Yonny Chirinos is 7-4 with a 3.15 ERA for the Rays so far this season, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The Rays are just 17-19 in their last 36 and injuries to the bullpen have been a big reason why. The home side goes with Dylan Bundy, who is 4-10 with a 4.65 ERA and who enters off a gem, holding Toronto to one run off three hits over seven innings in the victory. The Rays are only 18-19 (-5.7 units) this year with a money line in the -100 to -150 range this season and I believe they’re ripe for the picking in their first game back from the break. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Orioles. |
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07-11-19 | Astros v. Rangers +105 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 105 | 32 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Houston leads the AL West, but it hands the ball to Framber Valdez to open this series and he’s just 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA in the big leagues this year. Note that Valdez has been at his worst on the road as well, going 1-3 with a ballooned 5.09 ERA (also terrible in all “night” games, going 2-3 with a 6.38 ERA). Rangers’ starter Lance Lynn is 11-4 with a 3.91 ERA overall this year and he’s 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Houston. I’m banking on Lynn taking advantage of this opportunity. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Rangers. |
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07-06-19 | Phillies v. Mets -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* TRADE-MARK) It’s Jake Arrieta of the Phillies vs. Noah Syndergaard of the Mets. Arrieta is 8-6 with a 4.43 ERA this season, while Syndergaard is 5-4 with a 4.56. Philadelphia posted the 7-2 victory last night (I had the Phillies in that one) and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here as well. New York is struggling, having gone just 13-23 since last May. Philadelphia only has nine wins out of its last 24 games, but note that five of those victories have comes against these very Metropolitans. New York now the punching bag of the NL (along with the Marlins) and I expect Philadelphia to continue that trend. Arrieta comes in with momentum after back-to-back victories, while Syndergaard makes his second trip to the hill after a stint on the IL, most recently allowing three runs over five innings vs. Atlanta. I think New York has already “packed it in.” T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Phillies WARNING: WRONG SIDE CHOSEN. This is a play on the Phillies. Sorry for the confusion, over the course of a year, sometimes I make a mistake entering picks. |
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07-03-19 | Cardinals v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/M’s under (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) Adam Wainwright is 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA this year for the Cards, while Mike Leake is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA vs. the Mariners. Seattle came from behind to win 5-4 last night, but I think runs will be at a premium in this one. The loss dropped the Cards to 41-42 on the season, while the victory snapped a four-game slide for the M’s. Wainwright is 0-2 over his last three trips to the mound, despite not giving up more than three runs in any outing (note that Wainwright is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in two lifetime starts vs. Seattle.) Leake’s four-game win streak was snapped last time out vs. Milwaukee, allowing four runs over six innings. I’ll point out thought that the last placed Mariners have seen the total go under the number in ten of their last 13 home games after scoring five or more runs in a victory in their previous contest. I definitely feel that tonight’s contest sets up as a “duel,” rather than a high-scoring “slug-fest.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. |
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07-02-19 | Brewers -103 v. Reds | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the visitors offer great value to pull off the slight upset on the road Tuesday night. Milwaukee won 8-6 last night and it’s back on track for sure now after winning seven of its last ten. Chase Anderson is so far 4-2 with a 4.42 ERA for Milwaukee and he enters on top form, having won three straight starts (Anderson is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Cincinnati.) Tanner Roark is 5-6 with a 3.36 ERA for Cincinnati and while he’s enjoyed success vs. Milwaukee in the past, I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Note that Milwaukee is 22-13 (+7 units) this season vs. the division now, while the Reds are only 15-25 this season when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. Expect that hard-hitting Brewers to build off yesterday’s offensive explosion. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Brewers. |
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07-01-19 | Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Jays UNDER (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Glen Sparkman is 2-3 with a 4.07 ERA this season for the Royals, while Clayton Richard is 0-4 with a 6.89 ERA for Toronto. The Royals exploded for a 7-6 victory last night, but I think it’ll be a much lower-scoring affair in the finale on Canada Day this afternoon. Sparkman has faced the Jays once and he’d give up two runs over four innings and his team won 6-2 last season. Richard has struggled somewhat of late, but note that he owns a 3.91 ERA in eight career games vs. KC. Note that KC has already seen the total go under the number in all four games it’s played in this year following a one run victory, while Toronto has seen the total dip under in 11 of 15 as a home favorite in the -110 to -150 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Jays. |
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06-29-19 | Mariners +255 v. Astros | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) The Astros won the opener of this three-game set 2-1 in ten innings last night, but I like the visitors to bounce back in Game 2. Justin Verlander is 10-3 with a 2.67 ERA for the Astros, while Yusei Kikuchi is 4-5 with a 5.11 ERA for the Mariners. Verlander has had plenty of success vs. Seattle in the past, but I still think he’s over-priced here considering the recent “on again, off again” form of his team. Kikuchi comes in with momentum after winning his last start, conceding three runs and posting three K’s over six innings vs. the Orioles. I like Seattle to bounce back after last night’s near victory. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 M’s. |
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06-28-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +175 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 175 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockies (10* CA$H BOMB) The Dodgers rallied late in last night’s game, but I think the home side will bounce back here, despite having to face LA’s ace Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu’s 1.27 ERA leads the league, but Coors Field is the “great equalizer” when it comes to pitching. Certainly the home side will be motivated here. Antonio Senzatela gets the nod for the home side and he’s 6-5 with a 4.91 ERA this year. Senzatela is 1-0 with a 4.73 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Dodgers, while Ryu is a poor 4-6 with a 4.61 ERA vs. the Rockies, including a disastrous 1-3 with a 7.56 ERA in four starts at Coors. The writing is on the wall and a big upset is in the cards on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Rockies. |
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06-27-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +162 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* TRADE-MARK) It’s difficult to say anything negative about the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler, who is 8-1 with a 2.96 ERA so far this season, so I won’t bother. The Rockies have lost 11 straight in this series dating back to last season and I think that string of futility finally comes to an end here. Rockies’ rookie starter Peter Lambert, who is 2-0 with a 5.85 ERA, has looked sharp in three of his four starts this season. Note as well that the Rockies are 15-8 (+9.2 units) already this season after three consecutive games vs. a division rival. I expect Colorado to finally get off the schneid in this series. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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06-25-19 | Reds +136 v. Angels | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Reds (10* TRADE-MARK) The Reds look to break a two-game slide by handing the ball to Tyler Mahle in the opener of this interleague series. Mahle, who is 2-7 with a 4.17 ERA so far, enters off a great outing vs. the hard-hitting Astros, allowing two runs off four hits over seven innings. The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Heaney, who is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA. Heaney’s gone at least six innings just once this year and he most recently was rocked for five runs over three innings vs. the Jays on Wednesday. The Reds are 7-4 this season when playing with a day off, while the Angels are just 4-5 this season in the same position. Great value on what I feel to be the superior pitcher in this matchup. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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06-25-19 | Pirates v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Astros under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) The Astros finally broke their seven game slide with a win in New York on Sunday. The home side looks to carry that momentum over in the opener of this interleague series by handing the ball to Gerrit Cole, who is 6-5 with a 3.54 ERA so far this season. Cole is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA over his past four starts and he clearly won’t be lacking for motivation facing his former team for the first time. The visitors go with Trevor Williams, who is 2-1 with a 4.12 ERA. Williams struggled in his first start back from injury vs. the Tigers, but he’ll come in confident knowing that he’s a sharp 5-1 with a 3.09 ERA in 11 interleague starts. Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 after allowing ten runs or more in its previous contest, while Houston has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven as a home favorite in the -175 to -250 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Astros. |
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06-24-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* GAME OF WEEK) Ex team-mates collide in the opener of this series. The Dodgers just swept the Rockies at home, all three games decided in the late innings by home runs off the bats of rookie sluggers. Arizona broke a six-game slide with a 4-3 win over the Giants on Sunday. The Diamondbacks clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here. LA is 29 games over .500. Would anyone fault the Dodgers for taking the foot off the gas here? Zack Greinke has struggled in the past vs. the Dodgers, but he’s 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA overall this season. LA’s Clayton Kershaw is 7-1 with a 2.85 ERA. With Greinke enjoying the home field advantage, I classify these starters as a “wash” tonight. The difference comes in Arizona’s desperation levels. I’m banking on it mattering in the opener of this series. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 D-Backs. |
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06-24-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Jays/Yanks under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Yanks eight-game win streak came to an abrupt halt vs. the Astros yesterday and I think the offense falters here as well in the opener of this three-game series vs. the Jays. Toronto is already looking ahead to next season, but it comes in off back-to-back wins in Boston. The Yankees go with CC Sabathia, who earned his 250th career win last time out, giving up one run over six innings vs. the Rays on Wednesday. Overall Sabathia is 18-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 35 career starts vs. the Jays. Aaron Sanchez has struggled for the Jays this year, but note that he’s 2-4 with a 3.24 ERA in 15 appearances vs. New York. Toronto’s seen the total go under in seven of its last nine after back-to-back road victories, while NY has seen the total dip under in 14 of 23 already this season as a home fav of -150 or higher. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Yanks. |
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06-23-19 | Blue Jays +159 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-1 | Win | 159 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Jays came from behind to steal last night’s contest 8-7. I think the visitors (at this price) offer great value to do it again on Sunday. Marcus Stroman gets the nod for the Jays and he’s so far 4-9 with a 3.23 ERA. He’ll be opposed by struggling Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, who is 5-6 with a 4.31 ERA. Stroman gave up three runs over seven innings in a 3-1 loss to the Angels most recently, but he does already have a win over the Red Sox this year, giving up on run over six frames (note that he’s also 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA lifetime vs. Boston.) Porcello comes in off his best start of the year, going seven scoreless vs. the Twins on Monday. Porcello has admittedly looked a lot better since a poor start to the 2019 campaign, but note that he’s still just 10-11 with a ballooned 5.39 ERA in 26 career games vs. the Jays. I like the hungry visiting side to steal this game and series. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Blue Jays. |
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06-22-19 | Braves +121 v. Nationals | Top | 13-9 | Win | 121 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves (10* BEST OF BEST) I had a play on Atlanta last night and it unfortunately came up short after the Nationals rallied for a late 4-3 victory. Washington’s won five straight, but I think it’ll come up short here vs. the hungry and revenge minded Braves. Anibal Sanchez is 3-6 with a 3.84 ERA overall for Washington and while he’s been great since returning from a short stint on the IL, he’s struggled vs. the Braves throughout his career, going just 6-11 with a 4.91 ERA in 19 starts against them. Atlanta hands the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (2-5, 5.53) and he was 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA in five starts vs. Washington last season. Note as well that Foltynewicz has quietly been returning to form after a terrible start, entering this one off his best performance of the year by giving up one run over six frames vs. the Phillies. I think both Washington and Sanchez take a step back here and I look for the focused and hungry Foltynewicz and visiting side to step up and take advantage. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Braves. |
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06-22-19 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Astros/Yankees under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Yankees have won seven straight, while Houston has dropped six in a row. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but for this particular selection I’m focusing entirely on the starting pitchers. The home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka, who is 5-5 with a 3.23 ERA and who comes in off a commanding performance vs. the Rays on Monday, going the distance and allowing just two hits. Tanaka comes in on top form off back-to-back victories. The Astros are only hitting .189 collectively during their slide and they counter with Wade Miley, who is 6-4 with a 3.52 ERA, most recently allowing three runs over five innings in a loss to the Reds. Note that Houston has seen the total go under in 14 of 19 vs. AL East opponents this season, while NY has seen the total dip below the number in eight of 12 this season as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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06-21-19 | Blue Jays +300 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* TRADE-MARK). I like the Jays to steal Game 1 of this series vs. the over-priced the Red Sox. Toronto comes in off a hard-fought 7-5, 10-inning victory over the Angels and I expect it to carry that momentum over here. The visitors go with Trent Thornton, who is 2-5 with a 4.36 ERA, while the home side goes with Chris Sale, who is 3-7 with a 3.49 ERA. The Red Sox had Thursday off and I don’t think it’s going to help after they went 18-15 over a 34-day stretch, including a satisfying 9-4 win over the Twins on Wednesday. Toronto got good news yesterday in the closer Ken Giles is back, and he pitched a perfect ninth on Thursday with two K’s. The stage is set for the big upset on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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06-20-19 | Giants +183 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Fran Giants (10* MONEY-MAKER). The over night pitching change from Buehler to Urias favors Madison Bumgarner and the hungry visiting side in my opinion. Bumgarner is 3-6 with a 3.87 ERA, while Urias is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Bumgarner is making his final start at Dodger Stadium as a member of the Giants, who makes one last tune-up performance before being moved by the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July (Bumgarner is 15-13 lifetime vs. the Dodgers with a 2.52 ERA.) After becoming the first team to 50 wins this year after yesterday’s victory, I think the stage is set for a classic letdown here from the home side. Great value on the revenge minded visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Giants. |
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06-19-19 | Mets +141 v. Braves | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* BLOOD BATH) The Mets smashed the Braves last night and I expect the “hungrier” team to lay the hammer down again tonight. New York goes with Steven Matz, who is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA, while the home side goes with Max Fried, who is 7-3 with a 4.11 ERA. It’s a good spot bet I think as well, as this the final of a ten game home stand for ATL, before it hits the road for ten straight. A classic “letdown/look-ahead” spot. Note as well that Fried has been terrible over his last three starts, posting a deplorable 7.98 ERA. Matz is 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Braves and while he’s been hit or miss this year overall, I still think he and the hungry visitors offer fantastic value in this position. Play on New York. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Mets. |
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06-18-19 | Indians v. Rangers +113 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rangers (10* TRADE-MARK). I think the hard-hitting home-side offers great value in the slight upset role at home. Texas has been a “different” team at home this year and I look for it to move to seven games over .500 for the first time this season after tonight (Texas is 25-12 at home after last night’s 7-2 win.) The home side hands the ball to Adrian Sampson, who is 5-3 with a 4.21 ERA and who had his five start win streak snapped last time out by allowing six runs to the Red Sox. Sampson though is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA at home this year. The visitors go with rookie right-hander Zach Plesac, who is 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA, who most recently allowed three homers and four runs total over five innings in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Rangers. |
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06-17-19 | Mets +141 v. Braves | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* GAME OF WEEK) Yes the Braves are hot and yes rookie Mike Soroka, who is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA, have both been better than expected this season. But after winning nine of its last ten, including a 15-1 win over Philadelphia yesterday, I think ATL takes a step back here vs. the Mets, who are just 5-5 in their last ten, falling 4-3 to the Cards on Sunday. Note as well that Soroka is starting to show signs of regression, entering this one off his worst start of his career, allowing five runs off five hits over five innings to the Pirates. Wheeler comes in off his worst start of his career as well, giving up nine runs over five innings to the Yanks. Note though that it was the first time since early April that he’s failed to complete six innings (additionally note that Wheeler is 6-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Braves.) The stage is set for the upset as I look for the hungry Mets to get the job done. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mets. |
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06-15-19 | Cubs +164 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 164 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (10* TRADE-MARK). Yu Darvish is 2-3 with a 4.98 ERA and he’s played just 22 games total for the Cubs. He’ll be trying to take down his former team today and start his climb back to respectability once again. Clearly Walker Buehler, who is 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA, comes in with the better numbers, but I think that after losing 7-3 in the opener and 5-3 yesterday, that the home side has a letdown here. It’s interesting to note as well that Buehler has faced the Cubs twice and gone 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA vs. them. I don’t expect Darvish to go the distance, but I think he does enough. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Cubs. |
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06-14-19 | Brewers v. Giants +133 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 133 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Fran Giants (10* MONEY-MAKER). Zach Davies is 7-0 with a 2.41 ERA, while Drew Pomeranz is 1-6 with a 7.16 ERA. Milwaukee leads the NL in home runs. The Giants have struggled with offensive consistency all year. Clearly at first glance this one favors Milwaukee, but Pomeranz comes in off a “gem” (went five scoreless vs. the Dodgers in a head to head matchup against Clayton Kershaw), and I think he offers great value to carry that momentum over here. Davies actually enters off one of his shortest outings of the season, earning a no-decision after conceding seven hits and three runs over five innings vs. the Pirates on Saturday. I think the Brewers come in complacent and I like the hungry home side to steal Game 1. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants. |
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06-12-19 | Brewers +134 v. Astros | Top | 6-3 | Win | 134 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* TRADE-MARK). Milwaukee looks to bounce back after yesterday’s 10-8 defeat. Houston goes with Justin Verlander, who is 9-2 with a 2.31 ERA, while the visitors go with Brandon Woodruff, who is 8-1 with a 3.87 ERA. I think these starters are a “wash,” but I’ll point out that Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine after allowing ten or more runs in its previous contest, while Houston is just 3-8 in its last 11 home games after scoring ten or more runs. Great value on the hard-hitting visitors. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. |
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06-11-19 | Mariners v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Under Mariners/Twins (9* BLACK-LABEL) I think this number is a little high despite these being the top two teams as far as “home runs” are concerned. The home side hands the ball to Martin Perez, who is 7-2 with a 3.72 ERA and who is a sharp 8-5 with a 3.26 ERA in 22 career appearances and 20 starts vs. the Mariners. The visitors counter with Mike Leake, who is 5-6 with a 4.30 ERA. Leake enters off one of the best starts of his career, off a complete-game 14-1 win over the Astros, allowing six hits and two walks while striking out five. Note that Leake is 2-0 with a 4.32 ERA in four career starts vs. Minnesota. Additionally note that Seattle has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 off a win of six runs or more over a division rival, while Minnesota has seen the total go under in 17 of 27 at home so far this season. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Twins. |
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06-11-19 | Nationals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 101 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nats/Sox over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) The Nationals won 12-1 in the series opener last night and while I’m not expecting such a lop-sided margin of victory here, I do think that these teams will combine to put the same or even more runs on the board. Patrick Corbin gets the call for the Nats and he’s 5-4 with a 3.59 ERA. But Corbin has been terrible of late, giving up eight runs over two innings to the Reds, before then allowing five runs over five innings to the Padres on Thursday. The White Sox will be eager to get some production tonight after yesterday’s humbling defeat. Chicago goes with the erratic Manny Banuelos (3-4, 7.36 ERA) who actually earned a victory in his last start, giving up three runs over five innings vs. the Indians. Despite that though I’ll point out that the White Sox have seen the total go over the number in all three games so far this year in which they’re a +175 or higher underdog. Also note that Washington has seen the total go over in all three games so far this year after allowing three runs or less in two straight games. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Nationals. |
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06-10-19 | Rangers +207 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 207 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* MONEY-MAKER) Boston is seven games back of AL East leading New York. The home side goes with Chris Sale, who is 2-7 with a 3.84 ERA, while the visitors go girth Mike Minor, who is 5-4 with a 2.55 ERA. Sale comes in off a gem vs. the light-hitting Royals, but I think he’ll have his hands full here with Minor and the hard-hitting Rangers. Minor has a tiny 2.08 ERA over his past eight starts and he struck out seven over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Note that Boston went 5 for 36 with runners in scoring position at Tampa over the weekend and I think it’s going to struggle again vs. Minor. Great value on the under-rated underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. |
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06-08-19 | Nationals v. Padres +135 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres (10* TRADE-MARK). The Padres have taken the first two games of this four-game set and I believe they offer great value to keep the ball rolling here. Max Scherzer is 3-5 with a 3.06 ERA and he’s done extremely well vs. the Padres though out his career. Eric Lauer is 5-4 with a 4.18 ERA and over his only two starts vs. the Nationals he’s posted a 2.43 ERA. Lauer though enters on fire, having allowed just five runs and thee walks with 17 strikeouts over his last 24 innings spanning his last four trips to the hill. Note as well that Washington’s a pathetic 3-7 (-4.9 units) on the road with a money line of -100 to -150, while SD is 9-6 (+3.9 units) after two or more consecutive wins. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Padres. |
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06-08-19 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Indians under (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL) CC Sabathia gets the nod for the Yanks and he’s so far 3-2 with a 3.61 ERA. Sabathia is expected to retire at the end of the season, but he’s after his 250th victory tonight. Sabathia is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Indians. Sabathia will look to help his team bounce back from yesterday’s 5-2 setback. The home side goes with Adam Plutko, who is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA and who has been called up from Triple-A Columbus to make this start. Note though that New York has seen the total dip under in three of four already this year after having lost four of its last five games while the Indians have seen the total go under in four of five this season as a home dog. New York’s blistering start to the year despite a rash of injuries appears to now definitely be heading in the opposite direction. Until those big bats do finally return, I expect that trend to continue at the plate for the Yanks. This total is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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06-06-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +177 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST). Toronto’s endured a terrible start to the 2019 campaign. The Yankees are enjoying one of the best runs in recent memory to open a season, doing it all with most of their big sluggers sidelined with injury. The tables are turning now that June has hit though, as Toronto puts the foot on the gas here as it looks to sweep this three game series from the overachieving and overpriced Yanks. Edwin Jackson is 0-3 with a 13.22 ERA this season, but he should settle down here in my opinion. JA Happ is 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA for New York, but I think his former team rolls to another hot performance at the plate tonight. I like Toronto to carry over its recent momentum. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Jays. |
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06-06-19 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Reds/Cards under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Last night’s game was postponed and the two starters which were supposed to go in that one, will now get the call here. I’m basing this pick primarily on the form of Cardinals’ starter Dakota Hudson, who comes in on the top of his game. Hudson is 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA overall and he went 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA in six starts in may. The Reds won Tuesday’s series opener 4-1 and they’ll go with Anthony DeSclafani, who is just 2-3 with a 4.97 ERA this year, but who is 6-2 with a 3.45 ERA litetime vs. St. Louis. Cincinnati has seen the total go under in 13 of 22 this year as a road dog, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in nine of 15 vs. clubs with losing records this season. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. |
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06-05-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dodgers/Diamondbacks over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) LA has taken the first two games of this series. The Diamondbacks have been stifled early by LA’s dominant pitching and it won’t get too much easier facing Kenta Maeda, who is 7-2 with a 3.61 ERA. He’s won four straight starts, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here facing this desperate Arizona team. Note as well that Maeda is just 5-5 with a 4.75 ERA in 16 appearances vs. Arizona lifetime, which includes an atrocious 7.31 ERA over 28 1/3’s innings at Chase Field. The D-Backs trot out rookie right-hander Jon Duplantier, who is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA. He made his debut on Friday and gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Friday. Clearly the book is still out on Duplantier at this point and shutting down anemic New York is one thing, but slowing down this offensive juggernaut in LA is definitely another. LA has seen the total go over in 11 of 17 already this year as a road favorite, while Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 16 of 27 vs. the division this season. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Dodgers. |
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06-04-19 | Reds v. Cardinals +115 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cardinals (10* MONEY-MAKER) St. Louis has won four in a row and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas and pull off the slight upset in the opener of this three-game set. Cincinnati enters have lost two straight. The visitors hand the ball to ace Luis Castillo, who is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and who hasn’t lost since April 3rd. Castillo though has been extremely shaky of late and I think his early season gains are unsustainable, as note the he enters off back-to-back poor outings, most recently allowing three runs over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday (he’s 1-3 with a 3.67 ERA in six career starts vs. St. Louis.) The home side goes with Genesis Cabrera, who is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA, giving up five runs off five hits over four innings in his MLB debut vs. the Phillies on Wednesday (also struck out five.) I think Cabrera can match Castillo’s current form and in a situation like that, I think the value swings to the undervalued underdog. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Cards. |
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06-03-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* GAME OF WEEK) Walker Buehler is 5-1 with a 4.03 ERA and he comes in off a decent start, but I think he’ll take a step back here in the opener of this three game set and in this difficult road venue. The home side goes with Robbie Ray, who is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA this season, but who has enjoyed tremendous success vs. the Dodgers throughout his career, going 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 16 outings vs. LA, striking out a whopping 130 over 95 2/3’s innings of work. Buehler on the other hand has a 4.90 ERA in three career starts vs. Arizona, spanning 15 1/3’s frames of work (gave up five runs over three innings on March 31st.) After winning five straight, I think the Dodgers comes out flat in this opener. Great value on Ray and the hungry home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rays. |
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06-02-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees +112 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the Yanks offer great value to sweep the Red Sox here as the underdog. Note that Red Sox’ starter David Price was 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA in four starts vs. New York in 2018. Gary Sanchez hit a two-run homer in yesterday’s 5-3 win and he’s 7 for 14 with six homers and 12 RBI’s lifetime vs. Price. The Red Sox are just 2-6 in their last eight and they were only 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position Saturday. Yanks’ starter CC Sabathia is 18-13 with a 4.14 ERA in 42 career outings vs. the Red Sox, including going 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA over his last eight starts vs. Boston. I like New York to keep the good times rolling with another solid victory to cap off Sunday night baseball. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks |
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06-01-19 | Blue Jays +135 v. Rockies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (10* TRADE-MARK). I like the Jays to bounce back after yesterday’s 13-6 defeat. Colorado has won seven of eight during its current home stand, with four of those victories coming on its last at-bat. The home side goes with Jon Gray, who posted a sub-par 5.65 ERA in May. Toronto ace Marcus Stroman is just 3-6, but he owns a sharp 2.74 ERA over 12 starts. Stroman enters on top form having having given up just one earned run in each of three straight strong outings. Note as well that Toronto is already a perfect 4-0 (+5.5 units) this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent which scored ten or more runs in. Great value on the hotter pitcher. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Jays. |
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05-31-19 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Rangers under (10*) A couple of respectable pitchers collide in this one on Friday night and I think they’ll battle each other deep into the latter frames. KC came out on top in yesterday’s 4-2 win and I believe we’ll see a similar lower-scoring “duel” here as well. Texas turns to Ariel Jurado, who is 1-2 with a 2.28 ERA, giving up two runs over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Angels in his last start. The visitors hand the ball to the resurgent Danny Duffy, who is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA. Duffy’s three-start win streak came to an end in his last trip to the hill, as he’d give up four runs (only one earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Yanks on Sunday (Duffy is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Rangers as well.) I expect these “studs” to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. |
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05-31-19 | Red Sox +109 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10*) Chris Sale got destroyed by the Yanks in April. Sale got out to an uncharacteristically slow start this year, but since the loss to New York he’s resembled his normal dominating self, posting a 2.44 ERA in seven starts since. Sale’s had tremendous success vs. New York throughout his career, including at Yankee stadium here he owns a very respectable 2.36 ERA in nine career appearances. Yanks’ starter JA Happ is 8-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 22 regular season appearances vs. the Red Sox, but he’s been consistently inconsistent all season and I think he’ll struggle against the suddenly resurgent Sale. This is a huge series. For Boston. Who could fault the Yanks for taking the foot off the gas, they’ve been the hottest team in baseball and doing it all without their major power hitters. Boston’s been playing a lot better as well though and I think they’re the correct call in this match-up on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Red Sox. |
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05-30-19 | Mets +216 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mets (10* TRADE-MARK) The Dodgers came from behind to knock off the Mets 9-8 last night, but I think the visitors will rally to salvage the finale of this three game set. The Dodgers scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth to seal the win. It’s impossible to point to any faults for Dodgers’ starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 5-0 with a 1.22 ERA at Dodger stadium. He’s also done very well against the Mets throughout his career. The visitors go with Jason Vargas, who is 1-2 with a 5.22 ERA. The veteran though looked sharp in his last star, allowing one run over five innings in a win over the Tigers on Saturday. Note that the Mets have won three of his last five trips to the hill and he owns a sharp 2.74 ERA over his last five starts. My play is on Vargas. I think the veteran can match pace with the over-achieving Ryu and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Mets. |
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05-30-19 | Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 10 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/Phillies under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series. Yesterday Philadelphia homered four times in its 11-4 win. I think the finale of this three-game set though sets up as a much more of a “duel.” The home side goes with Jerad Eickhoff, who is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA, but who comes in focused after three straight ugly starts. Note though that Eickhoff has made two career appearances vs. the Cards and has gone 1-1, which includes a 5-0 win on May 8th when he gave up just three hits over eight shutout frames. The Cards are now 7-18 in the month of May. The visitors counter with Dakota Hudson to stop the bleeding, he’s so far 3-3 with a 4.22 ERA. He got crushed by the Phillies on May 7th, but in his last start he went a career-high 6 1/3’s innings in a 6-3 victory over the Braves, giving up five hits and two runs. Note that Hudson comes in on top form, having posted four straight quality starts with a 3.07 ERA over his last five games. These are two hungry starters and I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. |
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05-29-19 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Astros under (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). The Astros won their second straight in this series in yesterday’s 9-6 interleague victory. One day earlier Houston had to hold on for the 6-5 win. While the first two games of this series have flown well above the posted number, I think the conditions are now right for more of a “duel” in the finale. The home side hands the ball to Wade Miley, who is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA and who looked sharp in his last outing, allowing one run while posting eight K’s in a win over the Red Sox. Also note that Miley has in fact won four straight and he’s unbeaten at home this year. He’s also 6-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Cubs, which includes going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 2018 while he was with the Brewers. The visitors try to salvage the finale by turning to Kyle Hendricks, who is 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over six innings with nine K’s in a no-decision to the Reds. While only 3-8 in 18 careers starts vs. the American League in his career, Hendricks does own a respectable 3.41 ERA over that span. I look for these surging veteran starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Astros. |
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05-28-19 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Jays/Rays over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) The Rays won yesterday’s three-game series opener 8-3 and I expect a similar final combined score here as well once it’s all said and done. Tampa Bay slugger Austin Meadows had three RBI’s and a home run yesterday. Toronto won’t be rolling over though here after it lost two of three at home to the Rays in April. In fact the Rays are 16-7 vs. the Jays the last two years, including 8-2 at home over that span. Toronto goes with Clayton Richard, who is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA so far, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek, who is 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA. The book is still out on each of these starters though with such a small sample size so far. I think the stage is set for another high-scoring affair as I expect each of these starters to get the hook early. Note that Toronto has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine after a loss by five runs or more as well. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Rays. |
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05-27-19 | Indians +167 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-12 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Boston rallied to salvage the finale of its three-game series in Houston last night, but I think it’ll stumble here in the Opener of this three game set vs. the Indians. Cleveland comes in focused as it desperately tries to avoid falling below .500 for the first time since April 3rd. The Tribe have lost six of their last seven. "Quitting is not an option," Cleveland manager Terry Francona said last night. "You have to keep playing. ... Nobody likes to lose. Guys don't like making outs, guys don't like giving up hits, but you have to play through that. I think that kind of can define who you are at the end of the season is how you fight through frustration." Let’s call Indians’ starter Jefry Rodriguez, who is 1-4 with a 4.08 ERA and Red Sox’ starter Rick Pocello, who is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA, a “wash.” here. Boston’s been terribly inconsistent and I think that trend continues here. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the hungry visiting side tonight. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Tribe. |
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05-26-19 | Braves +132 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 132 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* MONEY-MAKER) These teams have split the first two games of this three game series. Julio Teheran though, who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA for the Braves this season, has been unbelievable in the month of May and I believe he offers great value to continue that progression. Joe Flaherty, who is 4-3 with a 4.19 ERA gets the call for the home side. Teheran though is 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA over four starts this month (having not given up more than a single run or three hits in any of those appearances.) Teheran also owns a sharp 2.77 ERA in seven lifetime match ups vs. the Cards. Flaherty is 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA this month. I like the Braves wily veteran to continue his recent strong form. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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05-25-19 | Dodgers v. Pirates +144 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the Pirates offer great value to bounce back here after last night’s 10-2 defeat. Pittsburgh won’t be lacking for motivation here as it’s lost 15 of the last 17 in this series. The home side comes in motivated and hands the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA. LA hands the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 6-1 with a 1.52 ERA. Ryu has been exceptional, but I think his early season numbers are unsustainable. Musgrove has been quietly dominating as well, coming in having won two straight. I think Musgrove and the home side step up and end the Dodgers and Ryu’s current streaks; play on the home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Pirates. |
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05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Cardinals under (10* SUPER TOTAL) These two starting pitchers dominated last year, but each has so far struggled in 2019. They won’t be lacking for motivation here and I believe this determination from each will help in pushing this total under the number once its all said and done. Braves’ starter Mike Foltynewicz is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA, while Cards’ starter Miles Mikolas is 4-4 with a 4.88 ERA. The Braves come in tired as well after last night’s 5-4, 13 inning victory at San Francisco. Foltynewicz won’t be lacking for focus here though after the Cards crushed him for eight runs over 4 2/3’s innings just last week. In his last start he gave up two runs over six innings vs. the Brewers. Mikolas can empathize, as he gave up seven runs over 1 1/3’s innings to Texas in his last start. Note that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 already this year after two or more consecutive victories, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in four of five already this season after scoring ten or more runs in its previous outing. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. |
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05-23-19 | White Sox +180 v. Astros | Top | 4-0 | Win | 180 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) After dropping the first two games of this four game series, the White Sox bounced back with a convincing win on Wednesday. Now with its ace Lucas Giolito coming to the mound, I look for Chicago to build off that win. Giolito is 5-1 with a 3.35 ERA and he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA over his last three starts. He’s been crushed by the Astros in the past, but that was then and this is now. I think Giolito has a big advantage over his rookie counterpart Corbin Martin, who is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Martin’s been strong over his first two outings, but clearly regression is imminent at some point and in my opinion, that’s going to happen sooner, rather than later. I expect Giolito to continue his progression and I look for Martin to take a big step back. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Sox. |
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05-23-19 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nats/Mets under (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) A couple of competent hurlers square off in this afternoon National League contest and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Mets have won the first three games of this series, including last night’s 6-1 victory (all six runs engineered in the eighth inning.) While both teams have struggled with offensive consistency, this pick is based primarily on the starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, who is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA and who so far has been best in all “day” games this year, going 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA. His counterpart Steven Matz, who is 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA, returned from the DL to give up two runs over four innings in a 2-0 loss to Miami last weekend (he owns a 3.60 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Nats.) The stage is set for a “duel.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Nationals. |
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05-22-19 | Braves v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Giants over (10* TOTAL U of U) Max Fried is 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA for the Braves and Jeff Samardzija is 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA for the Giants. These starters have each gotten out to a decent start to the 2019 campaign, but I think each takes a step back here and gets the hook early. San Francisco completed a dramatic bottom of the night come from behind win last night and I expect that momentum to get carried over here. Note that Fried’s career ERA vs. the Giants is 4.50 with no decisions. Samardzija is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA vs. the Braves lifetime. Note though that ATL has seen the total go over in nine of 12 already this year after having lost two of its last three games, while San Francisco has seen the total fly over in five of its last six after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Giants. |
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05-22-19 | Reds -117 v. Brewers | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* BEST OF BEST) I think Luis Castillo and the Reds build off yesterday’s 3-0 victory and find a way to earn the sweep of this two game set. Let’s call these starters a “wash.” Luis Castillo and Zack Davies have two of the best records in the league and it’s difficult to find any faults in either at the moment. The Reds’ though have momentum and they get set to welcome back slugger Yasiel Puig. Note as well that the Reds are already 3-1 this year as a road favorite, while the Brewers are only 2-4 as a home dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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05-21-19 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nationals/Mets over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) It’s the Nationals’ Erick Fedde (0-0, 3.38 ERA) vs. the Mets Zack Wheeler (3-3, 4.85). New York ended a miserable five-game losing streak with a 5-3 win in last night’s four-game series opener and clearly it’ll be looking to keep the foot on the gas here as well. The Nationals can empathize though as they continue to struggle with game to game consistency as well. It’s interesting to note that the Nats have lost 13 games by two runs or fewer and two more in extra innings. These are two clubs with big expectations but which are both scuffling at the plate. I think that ends tonight. Last Thursday these exact starters faced each other and Wheeler gave up six runs over six innings in Washington’s eventual 7-6 win. All signs point to a similar final combine score in my opinion this time around as well. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Mets. |
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05-20-19 | Mariners +135 v. Rangers | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* GAME OF WEEK) Mike Leake (3-4, 4.00 ERA) gets the call for the Mariners, while Texas hands the ball to Mike Minor (4-3, 2.61). Seattle beat Minnesota 7-4 to salvage the final game of a four-game set. Seattle clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here after scuffling over the last three weeks. Texas on the other hand has reversed its fortunes of late, most recently mounting a furious 5-4 comeback win over the Cardinals. But I think the Rangers will have their hands full with Leake, who comes off his best start of the year, giving up three runs over seven innings to beat the A’s. Minor comes in off a win over the Royals, allowing one run over five innings. Note though that Minor is 2-3 with a 4.51 ERA in six starts vs. the M’s, while Leake is 1-2 with a 3.14 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Rangers. Additionally note that Seattle is still 14-8 (+7.2 units) this year following a win and 12-3 (+9.4 units) vs. clubs with losing records, while Texas is just 1-3 this season after a one run victory and only 8-10 vs. teams with losing overall records. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Mariners. |
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05-19-19 | Giants +156 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 156 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Fran Giants (10* TRADE-MARK) This series is tied at one-game apiece. Drew Pomeranz is only 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA this year, but he returns from the DL to make his first start since early May. His counterpart is Robbie Ray, who is 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA and who has looked sharp of late, but who I think is over-priced here. Note that San Francisco is 5-1 in its last six following a victory, while Arizona is only 11-12 at home this year. I look for the Giants to build off yesterday’s win and I expect Ray to finally take a step back after his blistering start. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants. |
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05-18-19 | Orioles +141 v. Indians | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles (10* TRADE-MARK) Baltimore comes in off a 5-1 victory last night and I think it offers great value to steal this one as well. The home side hands the ball to Adam Plutko on Saturday and he’ll be making his season debut here. Last year he was an unimpressive 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA and 60 K’s for the Tribe. Baltimore will look to take advantage and to build off yesterday’s production, posting a season-high seven extra-base hits in the win. The visitors counter with the red hot John Means, who is 5-3 with a 2.33 ERA and who has won four of his past five outings and given up one earned run or fewer in each of the four victories. All things considered, i think this is the very definition of “great line value.” T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Orioles. |
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05-16-19 | A's v. Tigers +115 | Top | 17-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE) Oakland comes in having lost three straight and i think that string of futility carries over here. Note that the A’s are only 5-15 on the road this year. The visitors go with Chris Bassitt on the hill this afternoon and he’s 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA. Bassitt most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a loss to the Reds. He’s a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.96 ERA in four career starts vs. the Tigers. Detroit has lost three straight as well, so it won’t be lacking for motivation either. The home side counters with Spencer Turnbull, who is 2-2 with a 2.42 ERA. The good news for Detroit though is that it’s won Turnbull’s last four starts. Note that Oakland is just 2-7 (-6.6 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is between -100 to -150, while Detroit is a solid 13-8 (+8.3 units) in all “day” games this year. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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05-15-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/Braves under (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Two competent starting pitchers collide in the second game of this three game National League series and in my opinion, everything points to classic “duel” after St. Louis’ 14-3 win in yesterday’s opener. The Cards hand the ball to Michael Wacha (3-0, 5.35 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs over six innings in a win over the Pirates. The home side counters with Mike Soroka (3-1, 1.21) is the first others since 1913 to allow one run or fewer as a starter in eight of his first ten career games. Note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go under in 18 of its last 28 after having lost six or seven of its last eight games, while Atlanta has seen the total go under in 47 of its last 77 at home when the total is either 9 or 9.5. Expect these “studs” to battle into the latter frames and look for this one to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. |
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05-14-19 | Cubs v. Reds +125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* TRADE-MARK). Both teams come in relatively hot, as Chicago hasn’t lost a series since losing the first three, while Cincinnati is 17-15 following a terrible 1-8 start. The home side has to be feeling confident here though in handing the ball to Tanner Roark, who is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA, most recently shutting out the A’s on three hits over six innings. Note that over his last 13 innings of work Roark has conceded just seven hits and two runs. Note that Chicago right fielder Jason Heyward is 0 for 20 vs. Roark and only 4 for 39 over his past ten games. Roark is 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA lifetime vs. the Cubs. The visitors go with Kyle Hendricks, who is 2-4 with a 3.19 ERA. Hendricks comes in off back-to-back decent outings and while he’s had success against the Reds in the past, note that Chicago is still only 5-11 (-11.8 units) in its last 16 after allowing one run or less in two straight games. And finally note that the Reds have done well in this spot for bettors by going 14-11 (+4.9 units) in all “night” games. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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05-11-19 | Nationals +123 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 123 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10*) It hasn’t been Max Scherzer’s best year for the Nationals, but I still think he offers great value to help the Nats bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-0 defeat. Scherzer is 1-4 with a 3.78 ERA, but he enters off a dominant start vs. the Brewers on Monday, allowing two runs off six hits with 10 K’s over six frames in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. He also generated 18 swinging strikes. Scherzer comes in on top form. Walker Buehler is 4-0 with a 4.95 ERA, most recently giving up three runs off five hits in a 5-3 win over the Braves on Monday. I’ll pint out though that LA is a money-burning 18-21 (-11.2 units) in its last 39 with a home money line in the -105 to -150 range. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Nationals. |
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05-10-19 | Yankees +126 v. Rays | Top | 4-3 | Win | 126 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* MONEY-MAKER) Each team sends its ace to the hill. This is a battle of division and AL leaders and I think the visitors offer great value to pull off the upset in Game 1. The Yanks hand the ball to Domingo German, while the home side goes with Tyler Glasnow. German (6-1, 2.35 ERA) enters on top form having won three straight, most recently going seven innings vs. the Twins on Sunday, giving up one run in the 4-1 victory. Glasnow (6-0, 1.47) gave up three hits over seven scoreless vs. the toothless Orioles on Friday. Despite injuries to sluggers Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, the Yanks have gone 16-6. I think Glasnow’s early remarkable numbers are unsustainable and while regression is also imminent in German’s future, I believe the Rays’ hurler has farther to fall. I’m banking on the hungry visiting side stealing Game 1. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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05-09-19 | Braves v. Diamondbacks +107 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 107 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks (10* TRADE-MARK) I had a play on the Diamondbacks in their 3-2, 13 inning win over the Rays yesterday. I like Arizona to build off that win, facing a Braves team which is struggling at the plate. For arguments sakes, let’s call these starers a “wash.” Mike Soroka and Luke Weaver faced off in Atlanta at the start of the year and Arizona won 5-1. Both were great in that game and each has been strong since. The Braves though enter after getting swept in LA and I think they’ll have a hard time producing much offense here either. Arizona on the other hand is already 13-7 (+7.3 units) this year when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. Great value on the hot home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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05-08-19 | Diamondbacks +137 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 137 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* BEST OF BEST) The Diamondbacks have cooled off dramatically now that Interleague play has started. Tampa has taken the first two games of this series, but I think the hungry visiting side will bounce back and take the finale this afternoon. It won’t be easy facing Charlie Morton, who is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA this season. He’s also 5-1 with a 3.68 ERA in nine career starts vs. the D-Backs. The visiting side hands the ball to Robbie Ray, who is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA. Tampa is surging right now at 11 games over .500, but note that it’s still a poor 1-3 (-2.8 units) this season at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. Additionally note that Arizona is still 8-3 (+7 units) this year as a road dog of +100 to +150. I think Tampa finally has a letdown here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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05-07-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins/Jays under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Twins’ Jose Berrios is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, while the Jays Aaron Sanchez has also gotten out to a great start by going 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA. Minnesota won 8-0 in the series opener last night and overall Minnesota has won eight of its last 11. Toronto continues to struggle with consistency at the plate and I think it’ll have a difficult time here facing Berrios as well. Toronto’s lone bright spot on the mound this year continues to be Sanchez and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continues his progress as well. This one has “duel” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Twins. |
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05-07-19 | White Sox +145 v. Indians | Top | 2-0 | Win | 145 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* BEST OF BEST). The White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the hill and he’s so far 2-1 with a 5.32 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs with two walks with seven K’s in a no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Thursday. Giolito has had issues with the Tribe in the past, but I think he’ll make the most of this situation, as Cleveland is forced to call up Jefry Rodriguez from Triple-A Columbus to make this start. He’s 0-1 with a 2.13 ERA, but there’s no doubt this is a difficult assignment on short notice. Chicago took Game 1 of this series 9-1 yesterday and I think the hungry Sox, with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, offer brat value to do it again on Tuesday. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 White Sox. |
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05-06-19 | Mets v. Padres +110 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres (10* TRADE-MARK) I think these pitchers are a “wash.” Jacob DeGrom is 2-3 with a 3.83 ERA for the Mets, while Chris Paddack is 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA. Paddack has been dominant, especially at home. I think the late West Coast game is detrimental to the visitors here. Also note that the Mets are just 8-12 vs. teams with winning records, while SD is 7-4 this year after having lost two of its lats three games. Great value on Paddack. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Padres. |
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05-03-19 | Nationals +153 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10* ULTIMATE OF ULTIMATE) The Nationals face Bryce Harper for the first time since he left and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson, who is 2-0 with a 5.82 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff, who is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA. Note though that Harper is 5 for 20 in his career vs. Hellickson. Also note that Hellickson is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in four career games vs. Washington. Eickhoff is 1-1 with a 2.88 ERA four lifetime starts vs. the Nationals, but note that Philadelphia is still a poor 7-9 (-5.2 units) this year following a victory. The stage is set for the upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals. |
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05-01-19 | Cardinals +153 v. Nationals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 153 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (10* GAME OF MONTH) Washington ace Max Scherzer is 1-3 with a 4.12 ERA. In nine career starts vs. the Cardinals he’s 2-4 with a 2.84 ERA. His counterpart is Miles Mikolas, who has also gotten out to a slow start by going 2-2 with a 5.29 ERA. He’s just 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA in two starts vs. the Nats. St. Louis though comes in with momentum after yesterday’s 3-2 series opening victory and I think the hungry visiting side will keep the momentum rolling. In fact the Cards have won ten of their last 12 games, while the Nationals have dropped eight of their last 11. I think Scherzer’s decline is right in front of us. Let’s take advantage. Play on the visitors. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cards. |
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04-29-19 | Dodgers v. Giants +130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 130 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Giants (10* GAME OF WEEK) I think the Dodgers stumble here in the opening game of this three game set and after coming from behind to knock off the Rockies 7-6 on Sunday. The Giants on the other hand have been outscored 24-12 by then Yankees in losing three straight at home over the weekend and clearly they’ll be out to atone for that mess. The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda, who is 4-3 with a 4.58 ERA in 11 career appearances vs. the Giants. Note though that he’s 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in six appearances in San Francisco. He’ll be opposed by the red hot Jeff Samardzija, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his five starts. Over eight career appearances vs. the Dodgers he owns a respectable 3.99 ERA as well. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. |
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04-28-19 | Indians +112 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BLACK-LABEL) The Astros won 4-3 yesterday, but I like the Tribe to respond in the finale of this three game set. The home side hands the ball to Wade Miley, who is 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA. Miley most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Twins. A date vs. the Indians is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA in six career starts vs. them. The visitors counter with Carlos Carrasco, who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA thus far. Carrasco left his last start after four scoreless innings vs. the Fish because of a knee issue, but he’s been given the green light to go here today. Note that Carrasco has now not given up a run in his last 11 innings of work. Also note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA with nine walks and 55 K’s in seven starts vs. Houston. Look for Carrasco to continue his dominance in this series. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cleveland. |
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04-27-19 | Rockies +112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 112 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockies (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Braves’ Mike Foltynewicz is coming off a career campaign, but this will be his first start of the season after starting on the IL. He faces a difficult opponent and counterpart as well in Jon Gray. Note that in eight career stars vs. the Rockies Foltynewicz is 0-4 with a 4.100 ERA, giving up 20 runs off 34 hits over 35 frames opposed. And that’s bad news overall for a Braves team which has lost three of its last four. Gray is 2-1 this year, given yup only two runs over 19 2/3’s innings of work. Note that in five career outings vs. the Braves Gray is 3-0 with a tiny 1.64 ERA with 38 K’s over 33 innings of work. Great value on the visitors here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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04-26-19 | Yankees v. Giants +104 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (10* TOP SIDE) This is a good pitching matchup, but I think the home side will find a way to deliver the goods vs. the still banged up Yankees. For arguments sakes, lets call the pitchers a “wash.” John Paxton is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA for the Yanks, while Madison Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA for San Francisco. The late night West coast game favors the Giants at home anyways, but the National League format won’t be doing Paxton any favors tonight either. New York is just 36-46 (-11.2 units) on the road when the money line is between +125 and -125, while the Giants are 4-1 in their last five after two or more straight victories. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Giants. |
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04-26-19 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 103 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Dodgers over (9* TOP TOTAL) Both teams have been scuffling behind struggling offenses. I think that changes tonight. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs over 5 2/3’s innings while throwing a season-high 92 pitches vs. the Brewers on Saturday. The two runs he allowed were both solo home runs, so Ryu was likely a bit “lucky” in that one. I think the veterans early numbers are unsustainable and a correction is about to happen here. The visitors counter with Chris Archer, who is 1-1 with a 2.74 ERA and he returns from a five game suspension after throwing behind a batter. Despite their recent drop off at the plate, the Dodgers still lead the NL in runs scored with 146. Look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Dodgers. |
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04-25-19 | Tigers +176 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I think the Tigers offer great value to bounce back after yesterday’s 11-4 loss vs. what I feel to be the over-priced Red Sox. Detroit took both games in a double-header the day prior. The home side hands the ball to the volatile Rick Porcello, who is 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA. He’ll square off against Jordan Zimmermann, who is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA. I’m not reading too much into Boston’s offensive explosion yesterday, as this is a team which has struggled mightily with consistency at the plate all season. Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera is on a ten-game hitting streak. Boston is over priced, considering the form of Porcello right now. Play on the Tigers. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Tigers. |
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04-24-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Pirates over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Pirates have lost three straight for the first time this year. Arizona won Game 1 by a score of 12-4, before then taking Tuesday’s contest 2-1. I think we’ll see a much higher-scoring contest in the finale though. The visitors hand the ball to Merrill Kelly (1-2, 4.37 ERA) who is making his fifth major league start. He’ll be opposed by Jordan Lyles, who is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA. Kelly most recently had 109 pitches over just three innings of work vs. the Cubs last Friday, giving up three runs off six hits while walking seven. Lyles has only allowed one earned run over 17 innings of work, but I think his early unreal numbers are unsustainable. In 19 career games vs. the Diamondbacks, including nine starts, note that Lyles is a poor 2-6 with a 7.23 ERA. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Pirates. |
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04-21-19 | Braves +110 v. Indians | Top | 11-5 | Win | 110 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Indians won Game 1 of yesterday’s double header 8-4 and the Braves then rallied for an 8-7 win in the second. Both of these starters have been great so far and it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either Max Fried (2-0, 0.92 ERA) or Shane Bieber (2-0, 1.71) to come out on top tonight. I think the difference are in the numbers today though, as note that ATL is a perfect 4-0 (+4.4 units) already this year after scoring eight or more runs, while Cleveland is still only 19-23 (-19.5 units) the last two season in inter-league contests. Good value on the Braves and Fried here. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. |
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