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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-18 | Temple v. Boston College -14.5 | 35-45 | Loss | -112 | 138 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Boston College (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Temple comes in complacent after two straight victories, most recently a 31-17 him evictor over Tulsa last Thursday. BC on the other hand comes in razor focused after suffering its first loss of the year, a 30-13 setback on the road at Purdue. Temple is averaging 28 PPG and it’s allowing 21.5. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead has 364 yards and a TD. BC is averaging 42.8 PPG and it’s allowing 24.8. QB Anthony Brown has 722 yards with ten TD’s and four INT’s. RB AJ Dillon has 491 yards and four TD’s. Note that the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four following a straight up loss, while the Owls are interestingly just 1-5 ATS their last six after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Temple is averaging just 3.7 YPC and only completing 50 percent of its passes. The Owls have committed eight turnovers, while BC has forced nine. This one has “blowout” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 40-15 BC. |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane +13.5 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 122 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tulane (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Everything’s going right for Memphis to open the season, while Tulane is coming off a 49-6 loss to Ohio State in Columbus last week. But I think the 3-0 Tigers do come in complacent here. Note as well that to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Memphis has won 11 straight in the series, including 56-26 last year. The Tigers beat South Alabama last week, but it was in fact far from easy. Giving up 35 point to the Jaguars is not a good thing and the hungry Green Wave are going to have their chances. Most team’s struggle against Ohio State, so I’m not reading too much into last week’s setback. Green Wave QB Jon Banks has 792 yards, five TD’s and just one INT this season. Last year he had 1,800 yards passing with 12 TD’s and five picks. Additionally note that Tulane is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine conference contests and 7-1 ATS in its last eight at home. The Tigers’ weak defensive play comes back to bite them here. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-27 Memphis. |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina +19.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: North Carolina (10* GAME OF WEEK) Outright upset? Of course not. But I absolutely expect the hard-fighting Tar Heels to keep this one a lot closer than what the bookmakers would like us to think. UNC got a much needed 38-35 win over Pitt at home on Saturday, while Miami Florida beat FIU 31-17 at home, the victory much more lop-sided than what the final score would indicate. Miami Florida played its backups for the most part in the second half and FIU scored 14 points in the final ten minutes of the game, long after it was decided. These teams played to a competitive affair last year though, with Miami winning 24-19 at Chapel Hill on October 28th, 2017. I think a similar hard-fought and close battle will occur in 2018 as well. It’s an important game for UNC, which is going to be looking for an upset and to avoid the 1-3 start. Will 3-0 Miami Florida get caught looking past the Tar Heels to the Seminoles at home next week? Very possible of course, as the Hurricanes were already guilty of taking the foot off the gas in their last game after going up big early. Give me the hungry underdog and all those points. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Hurricanes. |
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09-23-18 | Chargers +7 v. Rams | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -115 | 152 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Chargers (10* TRADE-MARK) The Rams have been unbelievable, but the Chargers match up well against their cross town rivals. The Chargers had five sacks against Josh Allen last week. QB Philip Rivers already has 680 yards passing, six TD’s and one INT. Melvin Gordon has looked strong on the ground and he’ll test a Rams’ defense which to this point has given up just 6.5 PPG. But that’s because the Rams beat Arizona 34-0 last week. Clearly the Cardinals have some serious offensive issues. But Rivers and company don’t have that issue at all. Note as well that the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, while the Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. Rivers has the experience to keep this one competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Chargers. |
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers -3 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 149 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8*) The Bengals are primed for a letdown after going 2-0 to start the season, including a satisfying 34-23 home win over division rival Baltimore. Carolina on the other hand is 1-1 and looking to get back into the winners circle after falling 31-24 in Atlanta last week. Andy Dalton has looked great in the early going for the Bengals with a 6:1 TD/INT, but a the Cincy defense did allow 425 yards last week, including 376 through the air. A non conference date on the road just smells like a complete “letdown” spot for Cincinnati in my opinion. The Panthers’ Cam Newton had 335 yards, three TD’s and 42 rushing yards last week. The defense uncharacteristically struggled, but I think it’ll return to form here at home. Note that Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home, while Cincinnati is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five in this series. Despite last week’s result, the Panther still rank seventh in the NFL in pass defense. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Panthers. |
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09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons -3 | 43-37 | Loss | -114 | 149 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Falcons (8*) Division battles are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side (for obvious reasons.) Both teams are 1-1. The Saints lost to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and then had to hold on for dear life in a victory over the Browns in Week 2. The Saints have looked suspect defensively and the offense is also lacking chemistry. The Falcons had their chances in Week 1 to put away the Eagles, but they’d go 0 for 3 in the red zone. Last week Atlanta was 4 for 4 in the red zone in their win over the Panthers. I think that offensive momentum gets carried over here. Note that ATL is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while New Orleans is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the division. Look for the Falcons to step up and defend home turf. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Falcons. |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -4.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 149 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Ravens (8*) Denver is 2-0 on the season, but it hits the road for the first time this year and I think it’ll stumble. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has already been picked off four times over the first two games and that doesn’t bode well facing this Ravens’ defense which was burned by Cincinnati last week. Joe Flacco is past his prime, but I still give the veteran the nod in this matchup. I’m not buying into Denver as its achilles heel has always been its play on the road. Note that Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while Denver is just 1-9 ATS in its last ten on the road. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Ravens. |
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09-22-18 | Eastern Michigan v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -106 | 135 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Diego State (10* TRADE-MARK) SDSU comes in with confidence after it’s win over Arizona State last week. On the other side of the field, EMU comes in deflated after suffering its first loss of the season in a 35-28 MAC Opening setback to Buffalo. The Eagles continue to split time at the QB position between Tyler Wiegers and Mike Glass and the in-decision is clearly starting to bog down the chemistry of the offense. SDSU will look to take advantage, last week it held ASU to just 36 rushing yards on 24 carries. The Aztecs would themselves rush for 311 yards. Note that SDSU is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game. The EMU offense is one-dimensional, which doesn’t bode well facing an Aztecs unit allowing just 46.3 rushing yards per game this season. This one has blowout written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 35-15 SDSU. |
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09-22-18 | Florida International +27 v. Miami-FL | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 128 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Florida International (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) Miami lost to LSU to open the year, but it’s since won back-to-back games. FIU smashed UMass 63-24 last week, as James Morgan had 207 yards and two TD’s. Morgan has a 63 percent pass completion percentage over the first three games. Overall the Panthers had 329 rushing yards in the win over the Minutemen. Miami destroyed Toldeo 49-24 last week. The Hurricanes defense leads the nation in several categories, but I think the unit will be tested by this under the radar Panthers’ offense. Note that FIU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records, while Miami is just 5-8 ATS in the same position. Give me the hungry dog and all those points! T.M. Prediction: 35-21 Miami Florida. |
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09-22-18 | Miami-OH -4.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 127 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Ohio (10* MAC GAME OF YEAR) This is the opener of the MAC campaign for each team. Likely each is happy that Conference action is underway as they come in a combined 1-5 to open the 2018/19 campaign. Miami Ohio opened with a slim loss to Marshall, but since then it’s been shut down offensively, scoring just three points combined against Cincinnati and Minnesota. The good news is though, is that those are two of the toughest defensive units in the entire country and clearly the Green Falcons don’t possess nearly the defensive talent. Miami Ohio has itself been tough defensively though, allowing just 27.3 PPG so far. Bowling Green is a disaster, allowing 46 PPG so far (522.3 YPG conceded) I like the Redhawks’ defense in this matchup and I believe it’ll be the difference maker. Look for Miami Ohio to get back on track offensively as well against BGSU’s atrocious secondary. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Miami Ohio. |
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09-22-18 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina +4 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 124 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: North Carolina (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Pittsburgh got the better of Georgia Tech 24-19 in its most recent action. UNC comes in rested after its game against UCF was put off because of the Hurricane last weekend. Previous to that though the Tar Heels were upset 41-19 by East Carolina. If recent history is any precedence though, then UNC has to be loving its chances today, as note that in last year’s matchup the Tar Heels scored the 34-31 road win. In Week 2 the Panthers fell 51-6 to Penn State, but they clawed back with the victory over the Yellow Jackets last Saturday. Pittsburgh is averaging just 21 PPG so far, while allowing 25.7. North Carolina has averaged 18 points and allowed 32.5. UNC had a big mental letdown against the Pirates, but I think it’ll bounce back here with the extra week off to prepare. The Panthers have been nothing special and I have a hard time seeing them pulling away in this one. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-23 UNC. |
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09-22-18 | Boston College v. Purdue +7 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 124 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Purdue (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Boston College is undefeated. Purdue is winless. While those facts may remain the same at the end of this one, I think it’s going to be a tight battle. Note that the Boilermakers have lost their first three games by a combined eight points. These teams are actually evenly matched, with competent direction under center, but from a trend based stand point, there’s no doubt that this one favors the Boilermakers, as Purdue is 6-2 ATS in its last eight non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. I think desperation leads Purdue to another tight cover (if not a win!). Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-30 Purdue. |
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -4 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: USC (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) A great overall “situational” pick. Washington State comes in unbeaten and complacent, most recently thrashing Eastern Washington 59-24 at home on Saturday. USC on the other hand will be desperate here after losing its second straight, most recently a 37-14 drubbing at Texas Saturday. Now throw in the fact that the Cougars took the lone match-up in the series last year 30-27, and this one has all the makings of a big time home side blowout in my opinion. Washington State’s early season offensive and defensive numbers are tremendous, but let’s take them with a “grain of salt” at this point. The Cougars face their stiffest test of the season today and in my estimation, they’re primed for a classic “letdown” here. It’s “all hands on deck” for USC though. Note that Washington State is in fact just 2-3 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range as well. Lay the points and expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Trojans. |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -103 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Jets (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT!) Why not the Jets on Thursday night? Of course the Browns are “hungry” for a win, but New York is equally as so. Cleveland had two legitimate chances for a victory to open the season and it’s come up short each time. The Jets looked great in Week 1, before then stumbling in Week 2, but defensively New York has been “lights out” so far, allowing just 18.5 PPG. New York isn’t going to allow Tyrod Taylor a lot space to throw the ball around today, so with each team putting an added emphasis on trying to establish the run while on offense, I’m expecting a tight battle until the final moments (basically whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I expect to win.) In a situation like that, give me the points! T.M. Prediction: Jets 23-20. |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -6.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 84 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Temple (10* GAME OF MONTH) Tulsa lost 29-20 at home to Arkansas State on Saturday, while Temple shook off an 0-2 start with a big 35-14 road win at Maryland to end its non-conference schedule last weekend. I think the Owls are going to build off that impressive victory in front of the home town crowd and to open AAC action. And if recent history is any precedence, then Temple has to be loving it chances today as the Owls wiped the floor with the Golden Hurricane in last year’s match-up, 43-22. Tulsa is averaging 26.3 points and it’s allowing 28. Last week the Golden Hurricane turned it over three times, including a pick six INT. Last week Temple had a decisive 429-195 yardage edge over Maryland. The Owls are averaging 27 PPG, but allowing only 23. That’s 58th in the nation. Temple is also 8-2 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Tulsa is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after allowing 200 or more yards rushing in its previous game. Temple held the Terps to just 63 passing yards last week and I look for the defense to build off that impressive performance. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 37-21 Owls. |
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09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 151 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dallas Cowboys (10* GAME OF MONTH) Both teams come in off duds. It’s just as difficult to write a convincing argument for the Giants as it is for the Cowboys. Both teams have major QB issues, as Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott threw for 17 yards in last week’s 16-8 loss to Carolina. That was a difficult match-up, but I think the Cowboys will have much more opportunity offensively today against the Giants’ suspect defense. New York QB’ Eli Manning had 223 yards passing, no TD’s and an INT. RB Saquon Barkley was a bright spot for New York, but I still think the Cowboys have the big advantage in that department with Ezekiel Elliot. Dallas is still 13-10 ATS in its last 23 as a fav, while NY is still only 11-12 ATS in its last 23 as a dog. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 24-16 Cowboys. |
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09-16-18 | Colts +5.5 v. Redskins | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 144 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indianapolis Colts (8*) Andrew Luck and the Colts looked good for one half last week, before then falling apart in the third quarter and eventually getting blown out 34-23 at home to the Bengals. But Luck finished with 319 passing yards and two TD’s. With that rust shaken off, I think Indy can give Washington a run for its money today. The Colts looked decent defensively too last week. The Redskins hammered the Cardinals 24-6, holding them to just 213 total yards. I think Washington comes in over confident. New QB Alex Smith looked sharp, but I still think the book is out on the veteran and I expect him to be under a lot of pressure today. The outright win? It’s not out of the question, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Colts. |
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09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills +8.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -130 | 144 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo Bills (8*) Both teams looked pretty terrible in Week 1. LA lost 38-28 at home to the Chiefs, while Buffalo was demolished 47-3 by Baltimore. Note that this is a revenge game for Buffalo after it fell 54-24 to the Chargers on the road last year. LA looked especially horrible on the defensive side of the ball last week. QB Philip Rivers looked decent, but the defensive unit would allow four passing TD’s. Buffalo has already made a switch at QB from Nathan Peterman to Josh Allen. The Bills defense allowed 369 yards last week, but I expect some improvement in front of the home town crowd on Sunday. LA’s achilles heel has been its play on the road the last few seasons, while the strength of Buffalo has been its performance in all home contests. I look for these strong trends to continue. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 21-20 Chargers. |
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09-16-18 | Vikings +1.5 v. Packers | 29-29 | Win | 100 | 144 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (8*) Aaron Rogers will most likely play in this one for Green Bay, but whether he does or he doesn’t I think the visitors will find a way to get the job done in the end. Minnesota posted a 24-16 home win over San Francisco last week, while the Packers came from behind to knock off the Bears 24-23. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Vikes have to be loving their chances today as note they won both games in the series last year, including a 16-0 victory at Lambeau late in the season. Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins had 244 yards and two TD’s, and while Rogers is clearly the better pivot in this match-up overall, the Packers’ QB is not going to be at 100% health today. And that’s bad news for a Green Bay team which is just 1-5 ATS in its last in its last six at home. Minnesota’s depth on both sides of the ball wears down Green Bay. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Vikings. |
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09-15-18 | Washington -5.5 v. Utah | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 148 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington (8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) It’s an inter division clash in the Pac-12 conference and I think the No. 10 Huskies come to play tonight. Washington is so far 1-1, losing its opener at then No. 9 Auburn, before then demolishing North Dakota State 45-3 last weekend. QB Jake Browning had 313 yards and two TD’s in the win and in all the Huskies posted 632 total yards of offense. Utah is 2-0 after getting the better of NIU 17-6 last Saturday. WR Britain Covey had eight catches for 129 yards. The Utes’ defense looked strong, holding Northern Illinois to 228 total yards. The offense though has been lack-lustre and to add insult to injury, leading rusher Zack Moss left last week’s game with injury himself. Also note that while Utah QB Tyler Huntley was 20 of 31 for 286 yards last week, he was also sacked six times. The Utes have lost five straight games to ranked opponents since 2015 and they’re also only 3-11 in their last 14 games against Top 10 rivals since 2014. Additionally note that Washington is a superb 18-4 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. I like the visitors to win decisively. T.M. Prediction: 30-17 Huskies. |
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09-15-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo -3 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 144 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo (10* TRADE-MARK) This is the opener of MAC play for both teams and I think home field will prove critical for the Bulls tonight. EMU comes in off an upset 20-19 win on the road in Purdue last week. Can anyone say “letdown” spot?! Buffalo will look to take advantage and move to 3-0 after defeating Temple on the road last week. EMU converted just 3 of 13 third downs last week and rushed for just 69 yards. The Eagles have also given up a lot of yards in the early going (431 YPG average conceded.) Buffalo’s offense comes in firing on all cylinders and the defense has given up an average of just 315 yards per game so far. Note that the Bulls are 3-0 ATS in their last three after two or more consecutive victories as well. I think Buffalo’s run game will prove to be too much for EMU to handle. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Buffalo. |
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09-15-18 | UTEP v. Tennessee -29 | 0-24 | Loss | -106 | 138 h 46 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Tennessee has won 26 non-conference home games against unranked opponents and all signs point to that trend continuing. Tennessee will be looking to fine tune a few things before the start of league play. And what better team to destroy than lowly UTEP? The Miners have the longest active losing streak among FBS Schools, having dropped 14 in a row, most recently a dismal 52-24 setback at UNLV last Saturday. Overall UTEP allowed four TD plays of 20 or more yards and 414 rushing yards overall. UTEP QB Kai Locksley has so far been a disappointment with just 177 passing yards between the two games. The Vols will look to take advantage of a UTEP side which has lost ten consecutive road games by a combined 390-141. Tennessee is 1-1, losing 40-14 to WVU, before then bouncing back with a 59-3 destruction of East Tennessee State last weekend. Tennessee still has a lot to prove it would seem at this point before SEC play begins: “I thought we did eliminate some of our errors from the previous week, offensively,” Vols’ coach Jeremy Pruitt said earlier in the week. “We didn’t turn the ball over which was a plus, and we scored in the red area. Defensively, we minimized the big plays and got off the field on third downs. We created a score on defense and special teams, so that is always good. We had another turnover to set up an offensive touchdown.” QB Jarrett Guarantano has 326 yards over the first two games. Now throw in the fact that UTEP is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss of more than 20 points, and I think this spread could in fact be a lot larger. Great value on what will prove to be a big time blowout. T.M. Prediction: 40-7 Vols. |
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09-15-18 | Ball State v. Indiana -14 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 138 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indiana (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Indiana hasn’t started a season 3-0 since 2015, but I think it’s going to accomplish that feat today. It’s the Hoosiers final tune-up before Big Ten play and I look for the home side to make the most of this opportunity. Ball State is 1-1 and most recently fell 24-16 at then No. 8 Notre Dame last week. With that “oh-so-close” opportunity still in their front of their minds, I think the Cardinals come in flat and distracted here: “I am proud of my guys because we prepared all week to make sure that we’d just fight, scratch and claw, and make sure that you just leave everything you’ve got on the field for 60 minutes,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu assessed afterwards. “I know without a doubt after looking at those guys in the locker room and as we left the field that we left everything we had on the field.” There you have it, they left everything they had on that field and still came up short (note that Ball State has lost eight of its last ten non-conference road games.) Indiana is getting unreal play from RB Stevie Scott, who had 204 yards in last week’s rain soaked victory: “You’ve got to believe in them, and you’ve got to let them go,” Hoosiers coach Tom Allen said of Scott . “The bottom line is that you grow up really fast when you’re forced to. He’s our biggest, strongest back … he’s got huge hands. And he’s really strong and I think that helps with ball security. It was a little unnerving because he is a true freshman, he is green, but I think we saw a guy grow up tonight in front of all of us. Really proud of him. And the O-line made it all happen … we ran the ball really good against a good defense.” Note that Ball State is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. I think the stage is set for the Cardinals to take a step back after last week’s disappointing setback, while I do expect the Hoosiers to build off their recent success with a full four quarter effort here. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-15 Indiana. |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis -24 | Top | 22-59 | Win | 100 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Memphis (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Memphis had a 21-9 half-time lead at Navy last week, but it stumbled in the second half and eventually lost 22-21. As difficult as that setback was, I do indeed look for the Tigers to use that disappointment as “fuel” tonight to crush the Panthers hopes. And speaking of getting crushed, after scoring the first 7 points last week at NC State, Georgia State would then give up 41 unanswered points. It’s not going to get any easier for the lowly Panthers this week either, who are a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as an underdog of 21.5 points or more. Look for the home side to take full advantage and lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-15 Memphis. |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Bengals (10* GAME OF WEEK). It’s safe to say that there’s no love loss between these division rivals. Andy Dalton and the Bengals have struggled against the Ravens defense over the years, but after the way Cincinnati closed out the Colts in the second half on the road last week, I absolutely expect the home side to defend its turf. Baltimore looked fantastic against the toothless Bills, but I believe that sets it up for a classic “letdown” as the team comes in over confident. I don’t think actually resting its starters (the Ravens rested most of their offensive/defensive starters in the third quarter after the game was out of reach last weekend) is a benefit for Baltimore at this time of year. The starters don’t need rest, they need playing time. And that’s exactly what Dalton needed, as after a sub-par first half, he and his offense were firing on all cylinders in the second. I think Flacco and the Ravens are the ones to take a step back on the short week on the road. Play on Cincinnati. T.M. Prediction: Bengals 24-20. |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +4.5 | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -106 | 95 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wake Forest (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams won big over their first two games. Last year Wake Forest posted a 34-10 road win over the Eagles and I think another victory in front of the home town crowd is in order here as well. BC QB Anthony Brown only played one quarter in his team’s 62-14 win over Holy Cross last week. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards and the defense limited its lowly opponent to under 200 total yards earned. Wake Forest held Towson to just 65 rushing yards in its 51-20 win last week, a victory which saw QB Sam Hartman go for almost 250 passing yards and two TD’s. Note that BC is still just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 as a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Wake Forest is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. Give me the hungry and confident home dog in a very tight battle. T.M. Prediction: Demon Deacons 30-25. |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +4.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Prediction: Oakland Raiders (10* TRADE-MARK). Clearly the Raiders have a few question marks heading into the season. But, so to do the Rams. LA had the highest scoring offense a year ago and while the core group of players returns again this season, note that the entire starting group saw almost no time whatsoever over the four exhibition games. LA has an awesome looking defense on paper as well, but it’s a unit which also features a number of new faces. David Carr is back under center for Oakland and he gives his team much more than just a punchers chance today. Jordy Nelson will be one of his new main weapons to utilize. The pressure is on Jon Gruden and I think the home side responds in this situation. Grab the points. T.M. Final Score: Raiders 33-20. |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Broncos | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 70 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (9* TRADE-MARK) Clearly I think you should also “sprinkle a little” on the money line here, as I believe Seattle offers great value in an upset role on the road against the “rudder-less” Broncos. Seattle has 20 new faces on the field of play today, but Russell Wilson is back under center. He has Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett to throw too and the Broncos simply don’t have an answer for these guys. The addition of RB Rashad Penny and speedster wideout Jaron Brown make the ‘Hawks a difficult match-up for any team still. The Seattle defense still has some of its veteran core, but it’s admittedly a bit of a work in progress. However the Seahawks catch a break here facing Case Keenum and the Broncos offense, which was a disaster last year. Keenum has some weapons (Emmanuel Sanders, Deymarius Thomas), but the unit is going to lack chemistry out of the gate. Note that the Broncos are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, while the Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six on the road. Grab the points. T.M. Final Score: 25-20 Seahawks. |
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09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -118 | 70 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Prediction: Cardinals (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Both teams come in with big expectations. Washington is starting Adrian Peterson as its main RB. The offense also features new QB Alex Smith, who took only a few snaps with the first team in the preseason. Chemistry is going to be an issue early for Washington in my opinion. The Cards welcome back David Johnson, who was hurt on the first play of the game in the first game of the year last season and lost for the entirety of the campaign. In 2017 he rushed for 1,239 yards and caught 80 passes for 879 more yards: “Yeah, he’s pretty impressive,” Cards’ quarterback Sam Bradford said of Johnson. “Watching him run routes, I think he might be one of our best route runners, regardless of position. He’s just so smooth. He is so versatile as a running back, that’s there so much–almost anything–you can do with him. We just have to find ways to give him opportunities.” Note that the Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 1 contests and 2-5 ATS their last seven on the road, while Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six at home. I think the combination of Bradford and Johnson will prove to be too much for this suspect Redskins defense. I’m expecting a decisive home side victory in this one. T.M. Final Score: 30-21 Cardinals. |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +4.5 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Prediction: Cleveland Browns (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Steelers are most likely the better team here, but the off-field drama surrounding Le’Veon Bell makes Cleveland the sharp move here in my opinion. The Browns went 3-1 in the preseason, getting solid play from both QB’s in starter Tyrod Taylor and rookie back-up Baker Mayfield. Ben Roethlisberger is back and so too is Antonio Brown for the Steelers, but the off field drama surrounding Bell has been significant and I think it throws a “monkey-wrench” into the Steelers chemistry on Opening night. The Browns have many new faces on both sides of the ball and while early chemistry will surely be an issue as well, Cleveland looked sharp in all three phases during the pre-season and there’s no reason not to think that the team can’t carry that consistency over here as well. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points in the end. T.M. Final Score: 25-23 Pittsburgh. |
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09-08-18 | Arkansas v. Colorado State +12 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 142 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado State (10* GAME OF MONTH) Colorado State comes in desperate as it’s already 0-2 with losses to Colorado and Hawaii. Arkansas though comes in contented after opening the season with a win over Eastern Illinois. Razorbacks QB Cole Kelley struggled in his limited time to begin the game and Storey was put in midway through and he’d go 12 of 17 for 261 yards and three TD’s in just two quarters of action. “Storey was the story,” Eastern Illinois head coach Kim Dameron lamented afterwards. “He came in and hit us on the big plays down the field…. I thought just the way he handled the passing game was impressive.” I think Storey will have his hands full though with a hungry Rams team looking for any type of spark to turn things around. Colorado State has had to play from behind in each of its first two games and QB KJ Carta-Samuels so far has a respectable 537 yards, five TD’s and one INT. The defense has been a disaster, but the Rams catch a break facing the run heavy offense of Arkansas this week. With a game at home against North Texas next weekend, it’s not to hard to imagine the Razorbacks in some small way coming in complacent to this one either. I think the desperation in which Colorado State plays with today turns out to be the difference. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 41-35 Razorbacks. |
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09-08-18 | Ball State +33.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 138 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (10* TRADE-MARK) Notre Dame comes in off a win and cover over Michigan at home last week and I think it’ll suffer enough of a mental letdown here to let lowly Ball State sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the massive spread that it’s been afforded. Ball State was 2-10 last year, mostly due to injury to key players. The Cards were handed a “cream puff” in their opener and they smashed FCS school Central Connecticut State 42-6. Riley Neal and James Gilbert only played three combined games last year, but they’d go on to lead an offense which posted 652 total yards. Neal was 23 of 30 for 258 yards and three TD’s. “We’ve been waiting for this,” Cardinals coach Mike Neu assessed afterwards. “The credit has to go to the offensive line because they give the running back the holes to do what they do. It was good to see 34 (Gilbert) back out there. He’s a warrior. I thought Riley was in control. He made some big throws and checks at the line of scrimmage. I thought he did a good job out there, it was great to have number 15 back out there.” Clearly the Ball State defense, which gave up over 40 PPG last year, will have a much more difficult time today, but regardless it was a huge step in the right direction for the unit. The Irish knocked off the Wolverines 24-17, as the defense would go on to force two turnovers while also limiting Michigan to just 58 rushing yards. QB Brandon Wimbush was just 12 of 22 though for 170 yards, one TD and one INT. I think Notre Dame gets caught looking ahead to its interesting home match-up with Vanderbilt next week. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 40-25 Irish. |
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09-08-18 | North Carolina -14.5 v. East Carolina | 19-41 | Loss | -112 | 138 h 56 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: North Carolina (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) UNC fell to Cal this past weekend, while East Carolina was embarrassed by FCS school North Carolina AT&T. The Tar Heels clearly have issues, but not nearly as many as the Pirates. UNC came out on the short end of a lower-scoring 24-17 setback to California on Friday, QB Nathan Elliot had only 137 yards through the air: “Turnovers and penalties, that’s the game right there,” Tar Heels’ head coach Larry Fedora lamented. “Self-inflicted wounds is what those are…. Whether you get pressure or not you have to make the right decision. If you turn it over like we did you’re going to have a hard time winning the game.” The Pirates looked even more pathetic though and against the lowliest of opponents, falling 28-23 to North Carolina AT&T. “We put the ball on the ground way too many times since I’ve been here,” said ECU head coach Scottie Montgomery afterwards (note the Pirates turned the ball over on three occasions while forcing no turnovers.) “We just can’t have that happen. And all that goes directly to me. There’s no way that I can point the finger at any of these kids. They prepared harder than any group I’ve ever been around and did exactly what we asked them to do.” Note that East Carolina is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten at home, while UNC is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road. Losing to Cal is one thing, but losing to an FCS school is quite another. Lay the points and expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 40-17 Tar Heels. |
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09-08-18 | Western Michigan v. Michigan -26.5 | 3-49 | Win | 100 | 135 h 33 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Michigan (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) WMU opened with a 55-42 home loss to Syracuse last Friday and it now it travels to the Big House to face the No. 14 Michigan Wolverines on Saturday afternoon, a team which comes in off a disappointing 24-17 setback to No. 12 Notre Dame last weekend. The Broncos looked decent offensively last week, but downright terrible on the defensive side of the ball. QB Jon Wassink was a bright spot in the setback to the Orange, going for 379 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s though. Shea Patterson was 20 of 30 for 227 yards, an INT and a fumble in his Wolverines debut. Dylan McCaffrey was four of six for 22 yards. Karan Higdon was a bright spot on the ground with 72 yards. While they fell flat in Week 1, I think the Wolverines will get it together in Week 2. Note that Michigan is 4-1 ATS in tis last five home games against teams with a losing road record, while the Broncos are just 1-4 ATS In their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. I think Patterson settles down and the Wolverines defense does the rest. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-10 Wolverines. |
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09-08-18 | Eastern Michigan +15 v. Purdue | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 134 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Eastern Michigan (8* BLOWOUT) The EMU Eagles come in off a confidence building 51-17 victory over lowly Monmouth last Friday, while Purdue comes in stunned after it’s 31-27 home opening loss to Northwestern. Clearly the Boilermakers will be eager to get into the winners circle, but the Eagles won’t be going down without a fight. I’m not calling for the upset, but I do think Purdue comes in still collectively hung up over its season opening loss. And with upcoming home games against Missouri and Boston College, it’s not to hard to imagine the home side in some small way also getting caught “looking ahead” to those much more important/difficult contests. Last week EMU QB Tyler Wiegers was 18 of 21 for 238 yards and two TD’s. Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar was 18 of 30 for 196 yards, one TD and three INT’s last week, while David Blough was 12 of 16 for 74 yards. I understand that beating Monmouth is one thing, while beating a pissed off Purdue team at home is quite another. But as I mentioned above, I’m not calling for an outright upset. I do definitely think though that the stage is set for a competitive battle. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Boilermarkers. |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -7 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Florida State (10* GAME OF WEEK) FSU was 7-6 last year, while Virginia Tech went 9-4. VT averaged 28.2 PPG in 2017 and the unit should be decent again this season with the return of QB Josh Jackson, who had 2,991 passing yards and a 20/9 TD:INT ratio last year. The biggest difference though is on the defensive side this season. Last year the Hokies allowed just 14.8 PPG, but that unit now features many new faces in 2018/19. FSU QB Deondre Francois is ready to step up and take advantage. While Francois missed most of last season to injury, he had a 20/7 TD:INT ratio in 2016. The Seminoles had a strong defense as well last year which allowed only 21.2 PPG and it should only be better this season with most of the key/skill players returning. I think FSU wears down the new look VT defense. Lay the points, play on the Seminoles. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Seminoles. |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LSU (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Miami comes in ranked No. 8, while LSU is No. 25. The Tigers won’t be going down without a fight today in this neutral site game and while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, the prudent move is the points in my opinion as I’m expecting a “nail-biter” until the end. Miami was 10-3 last year, while LSU was 9-4. Miami returns’ starting QB Malik Rosier, who had 3,120 yards passing and 468 yards rushing. Overall the Hurricanes averaged 29.1 points and allowed 21. LSU averaged 27.2 points and it allowed just 18.9. The offense has to replace QB Danny Etling, so expect to see a fight between Myles Brennan and Joe Burrow. But the LSU defense returns its core and I ultimately think the unit is going to keep it in this game late. Grab the points and then grab some popcorn! T.M. Prediction: 25-20 LSU. |
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09-01-18 | Bowling Green v. Oregon -32 | Top | 24-58 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oregon (10* TRADE-MARK) Bowling Green went 2-10 last season, and while some returning starters should see that record go up this tar, it’s still going to be an uphill battle for the Falcons. Jarret Doege only played half the season for Bowling Green and he had 1,381 yards, 12 TD’s and three INT’s. Doege is going to be given the green light today to throw to Scott Miller, who had 63 catches for 722 yards last year. Bowling Green was weak defensively though and it’s a major question mark for the team this season as well. The Ducks are led by QB Justin Hebert, who had almost 2,000 yards passing last year in eight games. In fact, in the seven regular season games that Hebert played in, Oregon was 6-1 and averaged 52.1 points, compared to going just 1-4 and averaging a paltry 15 without him under center. The Ducks were tough defensively last season and they should be again this year as well. Note that Oregon is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home as a favorite, while Bowling Green is 0-9 ATS in its last nine non-conference contests. I look for Hebert and the Ducks to roll this score up. Lay the points. T.M. Predicted Score: 60-15 Oregon. |
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09-01-18 | UMass v. Boston College -17.5 | 21-55 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Boston College (9* SUPER-PLAY) I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Note that the last time these met back in 2016 BC won 26-7. Massachusetts played last week and hammered Duquesne 63-15, but I think it’s going to stumble here with the step up in competition. The Minutemen were just 4-8 last year, so they got a “cream puff” on Opening weekend. QB Andrew Ford was 13 of 19 for 186 yards and two TD’s, while Bilal Ally had 109 yards on the group and a TD. The defense looked good, but obviously the unit faces a much stiffer test this week. Overall UMass averaged 30.6 PPG last year and it allowed 31.8. BC went 7-6 last season. The Eagles averaged 25.7 PPG and they allowed 22.8, which was ranked 37th in the nation. Ten starters return on offense for BC and the defense is also expected to be a strength this year as well. Sure UMass looked great last week against an FCS team, but seriously, who cares. While the UMass offense looked pretty good last season, the Eagles’ defense is elite and I think it’ll be the difference maker in the end. Lay the points. T.M. Predicted Score: 50-15 Boston College. |
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09-01-18 | Houston v. Rice +26.5 | 45-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Rice (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This is a quick trip for Houston to take on the Rice Owls on Saturday. The Cougars finished with a 7-5 record last year (and then lost to Fresno State in the Hawaii Bowl 33-27). Rice was just 1-11 last season, which led to a coaching change. Now, I’m not predicting an outright upset here or anything, but I certainly believe this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Note as well that the “revenge” factor does come into play as Houston has won four straight in the series, including 38-3 in the most recent back on September 16th, 2017. Houston averaged 28.2 PPG game last year and it allowed 23.8. D’Eriq King is the man under center and he finished with 1,260 yards, seven TD’s and two INT’s last season. Rice averaged only 16.2 PPG and it allowed 35.8. QB Jackson Tyner had 600 yards, two TD’s and 44 rushing yards and another rushing TD as well. The Owls aren’t going to win this game, they’re just going to be desperately trying not to get blown out. Houston has a few question on the defensive side of the ball coming into the season and because of that, I think this game’ll be a little closer than this spread would indicate. Great value, play on Rice. T.M. Predicted Score: 35-20 Houston. |
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09-01-18 | Oregon State +39 v. Ohio State | 31-77 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oregon State (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT). Oregon State was just 1-11 last year, while Ohio State went 12-2. This is a match-up of David vs. Goliath and while I’m not going to predict Goliath coming through with a TKO here, I do expect the lowly Beavers to do just enough to cover with this sizeable spread. Oregon State averaged 20.7 PPG and allowed 43. The worst in the entire FBS. Jake Luton had 853 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s before going down with injury, but he’s back and ready to go in 2018/19. Several starters return in key positions on both sides of the ball, so some small amount of progression seems imminent to me. Last year Ohio State averaged 41.1 PPG and allowed just 19. QB Dwayne Haskins led the team to a win over Michigan last year and he’s been named the starter this season. He has a wealth of talent surrounding him, but there’s no question that the pressure is on Haskins’ young shoulders now. I think Ohio State comes out a little flat footed and gets caught looking past. No upset, but closer than expected. Grab the points. T.M. Predicted Score: 40-24 Ohio State. |
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