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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-22-18 | Colorado State +14.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 92 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado State (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Neither team can become bowl eligible with a victory today and with that sad fact weight heavily on the minds of the once mighty Falcons, I believe the Colorado State Rams can keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Colorado State is averaging 23.2 PPG on offense, while allowing 450 yards on defense. The Falcons had a 14 point fourth quarter lead against Wyoming last week and they’d go on to lose 35-27, putting an end to any hopes of a bowl berth once and for all. And after that tragic setback, I expect a very predictable letdown here. Note that Colorado State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games following a four games or more losing streak. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Falcons. |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Lions (10* MONEY-MAKER) Clearly the Bears have been better than advertised this year. Chicago held on for a 25-20 home win over the Vikes on Sunday, its fourth straight win. Can anyone say letdown spot? The Lions have nothing to lose here and they enter off a confidence building 20-19 home win over Carolina. That was a quality victory on both ends of the field against a desperate team and I think the Lions will carry that momentum over here and take advantage of the short week home field nationally televised contest. Note as well that Detroit is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to under 20 points and playing on a short week. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 24-23 Detroit. |
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11-20-18 | Ball State +17 v. Miami-OH | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (10* MONEY-MAKER) Miami Ohio has won two in a row and with one more victory it will become “eligible,” but Ball State won’t be rolling over here as it tries to play spoiler. The Cardinals actually come in with momentum as well after breaking a three-game slide with a win over WMU last Tuesday. BSU QB Drew Pitt had 258 yards and three TD’s last week. The Redhawks prevailed last week over NIU, but it wasn’t pretty with the offense posting just 201 total yards. The pressure is on the Redhawks and note that they’re just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite. T.M. Prediction: 30-24 Miami Ohio. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Chiefs (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) I think these teams are very evenly matched. Clearly they are across the board. This one is going to come down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last in my estimation and as such, I’m going to grab the points. KC has proven it can go toe-to-toe with the elite in the league and on the National Stage, despite a loss in New England last month. The Rams on the other hand struggled to contain the explosive Saints, and the Chiefs are perhaps an even more dynamic offense than New Orleans. Additionally note that KC is already 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year, while LA is just 4-5 ATS as a favorite. T.M. Prediction: 33-30 Chiefs. |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -116 | 167 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The Vikes got back on track before their bye-week with a big win over the Lions, while Chicago enters off a win over Detroit just last week. Divisional battles are always the most important, but with a week off to prepare, I think Minnesota is the correct call here. Mitch Trubisky of the Bears is having a fine season, but he’s had difficulties with the “better” defensive clubs in the league. While the Vikes’ have struggled on the defensive side of the ball compared to last year, the unit has made big strides over the last week. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as an underdog, while Chicago is 0-2 ATS in its last two off a win against a conference rival and just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of three points or less. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Vikes. |
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11-18-18 | Panthers -3.5 v. Lions | 19-20 | Loss | -105 | 160 h 39 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Carolina is coming off a humbling loss in Pittsburgh last week, but overall Cam Newton and the Panthers have solid this year. Carolina’s defense has looked poor of late, but the unit catches a big break facing the Lions, who are averaging just 22 PPG. Detroit has nothing to play for, in fact “tanking” right now will only help its draft positioning. Note that Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Panthers. |
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11-18-18 | Texans v. Redskins +3 | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 160 h 38 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Redskins (8* MONEY-MAKER) It’s an important game for both teams, who are on the fringe of the playoff picture with less than half the season remaining. These teams are in fact very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by Las Vegas. So where’s the advantage? Note that Houston is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight after two or more SU wins and still only 9-12 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Washington is already 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year and 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning records. T.M. Prediction: 23-21 Skins. |
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11-17-18 | Arizona State v. Oregon -4 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -108 | 148 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oregon (10* TRADE-MARK) ASU is already heading to a bowl game and with a win today it’ll be the representative for the South Division in the Pac 12 Championship game. The Ducks though are 6-4 and with a couple more victories under their belt, they’d drastically improve their chances for a better bowl game. ASU has sen decent on the year, but note that it’s just 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS in the last five following a SU loss. Home field is the difference here, lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-20 Oregon. |
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11-17-18 | Indiana v. Michigan -27.5 | 20-31 | Loss | -108 | 141 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Michigan (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) No upsets here. I think Michigan keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. Indiana comes in off a 34-32 home win, while Michigan routed Rutgers 42-7. The Hoosiers are averaging 30 PPG and allowing 33. The Wolverines are averaging 37.2 PPG and they’re allowing only 12.9. Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last four at home and interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting more than 450 or more yards in its previous contest, while Indiana is a poor 0-5 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. The Hoosiers are allowing 38.8 PPG over their last five and I think the unit struggles again today against the Wolverines high-powered unit. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 44-10 Michigan. |
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11-17-18 | Liberty v. Auburn -28.5 | 0-53 | Win | 100 | 141 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Auburn (8* MONEY-MAKER) This is the first season in the FBS for the Liberty Flames and while they covered in a 45-24 loss to Virginia last Saturday, I think they’ll stumble here and lose horrible to Auburn, who looks to get back on track after a 27-10 road loss to No. 5 Georgia. Liberty is averaging 35.4 PPG and it’s allowing 39 per contest. QB Stephen Calvert has 2,677 passing yards and an 18/14 TD:INT. Auburn is averaging 26.5 PPG and it’s allowing just 18.3. QB Jarrett Stidham has 2,116 passing yards and a 10/4 TD:INT. Note that Auburn is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 50-12 Auburn. |
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11-17-18 | Iowa -15.5 v. Illinois | 63-0 | Win | 100 | 141 h 48 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Iowa (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Iowa came up short in a 14-10 home loss to Northwestern last week and I think it’ll take out its frustrations on the Illini, who enter off a horrible 54-35 road loss to Nebraska. Iowa destroyed Illinois 45-16 last year. Iowa enters averaging 28.5 PPG and it’s allowing 18.1. QB Nate Stanley had at least 250 passing yards six times this year with an 18/8 TD:INT. After three straight losses, I believe Stanley and company come up big today. The Illini have given up over 40 points in three of their last four games. Illinois averages 29.6 points and it’s allowing 38.6. Note that Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite and 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more SU losses, while Illinois is a horrible 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. T.M. Prediction: 40-20 Iowa. |
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11-16-18 | Memphis -8 v. SMU | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 122 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Memphis (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Memphis smashed SMU 66-45 at home last year and I think we’re going to see a similar beatdown here as well. The Tigers can score with the best of them, averaging 531.9 YPG, the issue has been on defense, where it’s giving up 231.6 YPG through the air. That’s a concern facing SMU and QB Ben Hicks, who has 16 TD’s and four INT’s, but the Mustangs are also terrible defensively. Note that Memphis is already 5-3 ATS as a favorite this year and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season off a win against a conference rival, while SMU is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two or more SU wins. T.M. Prediction: 45-20 Memphis. |
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11-15-18 | Tulane v. Houston -10 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 97 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston (10* MONEY-MAKER) Tulane started the year by going 2-5, but it’s since won three in a row. Even if the Wave lose this one though, they still have one last shot at home against lowly Navy to become eligible. The Green Wave enter off a satisfying 24-18 home win over ECU. The unfortunate part was that they’d allow 450 yards to the Pirates, while also allowing ECU to convert on 21 third downs. The Wave are scoring 26.2 PPG and they’re allowing 25.8. Houston is allowing 34.4 PPG, but the offense is scoring 47.8 PPG. I have a hard time seeing Tulane keeping pace with the Cougars on the road. Note as well that Houston is already 2-0 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. T.M. Prediction: 41-27 Houston. |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo v. Ohio +1.5 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ohio (10* GAME OF WEEK) I think Buffalo stumbles here after five straight victories. Ohio though will be the “hungrier” team at home and after its three-game unbeaten streak was snapped to Miami Ohio this past weekend. Buffalo’s never been 9-1 before. Ohio will be looking to play spoiler today as Buffalo will win the MAC East Championship for a second straight year with a win today. There’s no way the Bobcats want the Bulls to celebrate that feat on their home field. Note as well that Ohios is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records. T.M. Prediction: 35-30 Ohio. |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Western Michigan (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) WMU will be eager to get back on track here after a horrible 59-14 home loss to Ohio, while Ball State enters off a 45-13 loss to Toledo. The Broncos have to be feeling confident here though as they hammered the Cardinals 55-3 last year. WMU lost QB Jon Wassink to injury and since then its struggled. But with a couple of games to adjust, I think the Broncos are still the much better overall team here. Note as well that Ball State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while the road team is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 in this series. Ball State is also without its starting QB Riley Neal. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 WMU. |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +4 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 152 h 31 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Browns (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) This one has “nail biter” written all over it. The Falcons started 1-4, but they’ve since clawed their way back to a respectable 4-4 record. Atlanta has had to lean on QB Matt Ryan with significant injury to the run game, but one has to wonder how long the veteran pivot can maintain this high level of play? This is a difficult road venue and while the Browns’ defense has admittedly been terrible, Baker Mayfield and the home side clearly won’t be going down without a fight this season. Cleveland never expected to make the playoffs this year, but it did want to win a certain amount of games and while there’s been a big improvement over last year’s winless club, clearly no one in the “Dawg Pound” is very satisfied. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but this one goes down to the wire. T.M. Prediction: 26-25 Falcons. |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Colts | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 151 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) It’s been a dismal stretch for Blake Bortles and the Jags, who have had to deal with injuries to the run game early, a factor which completely threw the offense out of sync from the get go. The Jags remain competitive because of their elite defense, and I think that’ll again be the case here in this crucial divisional contest. It’s do or die essentially for each team’s season this week and as such, I believe this one will in fact be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Note as well that Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a divisional road dog in the 3.5 to 6.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 24-23 Jacksonville. |
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11-11-18 | Lions v. Bears -6.5 | Top | 22-34 | Win | 100 | 151 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Bears (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the Lions’ offensive line is going to struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue. The Bears have been improving on both sides of the ball almost every week it seems and I think that trend carries over here against this suspect Lions team. Detroit has major issues on both sides of the ball and I think Chicago can smell the blood in the water. Note that Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following a loss from a division rival and only 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Chicago. |
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11-10-18 | LSU -14 v. Arkansas | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LSU (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) Analysis posted at least 8 hours before game time. T.M. Prediction: (FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY) |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -109 | 142 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Florida (10* ACC SIDE OF THE YEAR) Miami comes in desperate after three straight losses, most recently an upset to Duke. Georgia Tech on the other hand comes in complacent after winning four of its last five. The Hurricanes fast start is a thing of the past and QB issues has been the main problem. Malik Rosier and N’Kosi Perry will both be utilized today as they try to get things turned around. Georgia Tech has gotten improved play of late, but I’ll point out that it’s still just 1-3 ATS at home this year and only 3-4 ATS as a favorite. T.M. Prediction: 30-24 Miami. |
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11-10-18 | Liberty +24 v. Virginia | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 138 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Liberty (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Virginia broke a three-game win streak with a loss to Pittsburgh and I think it’ll get caught a little flat-footed here as well. I’m of course not calling for an outright upset, I think Liberty, who is at No. 24 ranked Auburn next week, will keep this one interesting deep into the second half. The Flames are averaging 36.9 PPG and they’re allowing 38.3. The Cavs are averaging only 26.6 PPG and they’re allowing 19.2. Note though that Virginia is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after posting less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game, while Liberty is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Cavaliers. |
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11-10-18 | Maryland +3 v. Indiana | 32-34 | Win | 100 | 135 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Maryland (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Maryland can punch its ticket to eligibility with a win today against 4-5 Indiana. The Terps will be hungry to get back into the winners circle after last week’s 24-3 home loss to MSU. A date against the lowly Hoosiers, who come in having lost four straight and who haven’t played since a 38-31 loss to Minnesota on October 26th, offer the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The Terps average 221.8 rushing yards per game and 125 passing yards, while on defense they are allowing 164.8 rushing and 175 passing yards. Indiana is allowing 399.6 YPG overall and 237.6 through the air. Note that the Hoosiers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss, while Maryland is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. T.M. Prediction: 28-27 Marland. |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Fresno State (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Fresno State is 8-1 overall and it can ill afford to take the foot off the gas at this point. Not with the hopes of reaching the MWC title game. The Bulldogs have a slim one-game lead over the Aztecs in the West Division race and they survived a potential trap game last week with a resounding 48-3 destruction of UNLV on the road. Boise State sits a game back of Utah State for the Mountain Division. The Broncos have won four straight and look poised for a letdown here facing the step up in competition. Most recently the Broncos beat BYU 21-16. Note that Boise State is in fact just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 at home though and just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 20 points in its last game, while Fresno State is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 on the road. T.M. Prediction: 34-20 Fresno State. |
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11-08-18 | Panthers +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (10* MONEY-MAKER) These two teams are “firing on all cylinders” to use a big sports cliche. It would be easy to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win straight up. All in all, the oddsmakers pretty much think this is an even match with this spread. However, I think Cam Newton’s offense will keep his team competitive late. I believe these teams are a “wash” across the board, but note that Carolina is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a divisional contest and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Carolina. |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest +16 v. NC State | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 94 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wake Forest (10* TRADE-MARK) I don’t see much a drop off between Wake Forest No. 1 Sam Hartman and his back-up. It’s next man up in the College Football World and Wake Forest comes in desperate for a victory to become eligible. The Wolfpack had lost two in a row before last weekend’s victory, so a return to complacency could indeed be in order here. Note as well that NC State is a poor 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range and already 0-2 ATS this season off a win against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 37-33 NC State. |
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11-07-18 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -2.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Northern Illinois (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Both teams are already bowl eligible, meaning that home field advantage can’t be overlooked here in my opinion. Toledo got its sixth win last week against Ball State 45-13, while the Huskies beat Akron 36-26. Toledo is averaging 41.2 PPG and allowing 30.8, while NIU is averaging 19.2 PPG and allowing 21.7. Note though that Toledo is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 when playing against teams with winning records, while NIU is still 7-2 ATS in its last nine against the conference. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 NIU. |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys -4 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dallas Cowboys (10* MONEY-MAKER) Both teams come out of their respective bye weeks. I think the extra time off will benefit the home side more in this one. Note that Dallas obtained WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders last week. Dallas is in a “must win” mode as it sits two games behind the Red Skins. The Titans came up short in a 20-19 setback to the Chargers in their final game before their bye. After starting the season 3-1, the Titans come in having lost three in a row. Note that Tennessee is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range and only 8-13 ATS in its last 21 on the road overall, while Dallas is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 25-15 Cowboys. |
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11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks | 25-17 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Seahawks (8* MONEY-MAKER) These teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers. I think the Chargers though struggle in the non-conference format and off their bye week. The Hawks have been rolling and I don’t foresee a letdown at this point. Russell Wilson is firing on all cylinders and there’s no reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here as well. Additionally note that the Chargers are 4-6 ATS in their last ten non-conference games and already 0-2 ATS this season. T.M. Prediction: 30-18 Hawks. |
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11-04-18 | Texans +3 v. Broncos | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 142 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Texans (10* TRADE-MARK) Houston comes in rested after its bye and on a win streak. The Broncos enter off a loss and I think they’re ripe for the picking here. Denver won’t have an answer for DeShaun Watson, who I expect to have a big game here against this suspect Broncos’ secondary. Additionally note that Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive wins, while Denver is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home fav or three points or less. T.M. Prediction: 26-20 Houston. |
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11-04-18 | Lions v. Vikings -4.5 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 139 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) Both teams have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. That’s more surprising coming from the Vikes considering they led the league in most defensive categories last year. The Lions have gotten inconsistent play out of QB Matt Stafford though, while the Vikes have gotten very consistent play from Kirk Cousins. I think Cousins will be a difference maker in this one. Note that the Lions are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Minnesota is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as a fav in the same points range. T.M. Prediction: 31-20 Vikes. |
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11-04-18 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 139 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Carolina comes in off a convincing victory at home and while the Bucs come in off a victory as well, I think the under-manned visitors are going to have their hands full with the Panthers’ Cam Newton, who has returned to form over the last month. Home field advantage can not be overlooked as a deciding factor either in my opinion. Additionally note that Tampa is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 34-20 Panthers. |
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11-03-18 | Duke +8 v. Miami-FL | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 120 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Duke (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Duke comes in off a 54-45 road loss to Pitt, while Miami dropped its second in a row in a 27-14 setback to BC last Friday night. Note that this is a revenge scenario for the Blue Devils, who have lost four straight in the series, including a 31-6 setback on the road last September 29th. Duke is averaging 31.4 PPG and it’s allowing only 23.5. Miami is averaging 34.5 PPG and it’s allowing only 19.2. The Hurricanes though have regressed on both sides of the ball over the last two games and I think the Blue Devils will have their opportunities. Note as well that Duke is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog, while Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 27-23 Miami Florida. |
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11-03-18 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina +14.5 | 23-7 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 20 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Coastal Carolina (8* MONEY-MAKER) App State had won five in a row and made it into the AP Top 25 before then predictably stumbling at Georgia Southern last week. Coastal Carolina won’t be going down without a fight and it comes in with momentum with victories over UMass and Georgia State. The Mountaineers looked terrible on both sides of the ball in last week’s 34-14 setback. Also note that starting QB Zac Thomas left early in the first quarter with a concussion. Coastal Carolina’ QB Fred Payton and company have scored at least 20 points n each of their last seven contests after a 37-34 win over Georgia State last week and he’ll clearly be given the green light to fire down field again today as well. Note that App State is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 against the conference, while the Chanticleers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 35-27 App State. |
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11-03-18 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech +2.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -105 | 117 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Virginia Tech (10* ACC GAME OF MONTH) The Eagles are 6-2 and 3-1 in the ACC and they sit just 1.5 games behind No. 2 Clemson in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. BC hosts Clemson next weekend and I think it gets caught looking ahead. And while the Eagles have been fantastic at home, they’ve lost their last two away from friendly confines. An upset 27-14 win over Miami on October 26th has BC primed for a predictable letdown. VT is 4-3 overall and 3-1 in the Coastal division, one of three one loss teams with Virginia and Pittsburgh. Note as well that BC is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU victories, while VT is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 VT. |
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11-03-18 | Michigan State v. Maryland +2.5 | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 22 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Maryland (9* MONEY-MAKER) Maryland is 5-3 and searching a small upset here to punch its way into eligibility. After falling to Michigan, MSU bounced back with a 23-13 home win over Purdue, which was still in shock ater knocking off Ohio State on the road. QB Rocky Lombardi had 318 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. The defense looked sharp in holding Purdue to 339 yards overall, but I think it’ll struggle to contain a Terps offense which has been sharp at home, knocking off Minnesota (42-13), Illinois (63-33) and Rutgers (34-7). Last week the Terps posted 712 yards overall and 431 rushing yards against the Illini, with QB Kasim Hill going for 265 yards and three TD’s. Note that MSU is just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite, while Maryland is already 3-1 ATS at home this year. T.M. Prediction: 26-21 Maryland. |
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11-03-18 | Memphis v. East Carolina +13 | Top | 59-41 | Loss | -108 | 113 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: East Carolina (10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR) The Tigers come in reeling after consecutive losses, including giving up 65 points in a loss to Missouri last Saturday. The Tigers’ defense has been exposed and I think the hungry Pirates can keep it interesting. ECU enters off a 37-10 loss to the UCF. Memphis lost to the Golden Knights as well. Last week Memphis’ QB Brady White had just 208 yards on 15 of 37 passing with two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game has been strong, but ECU won’t be going down without a fight today. ECU started Holton Ahlers last week and he had 406 yards passing, one TD and an INT. He also rushed for 69 yards. Ahlers been given the keys to the ship and he’s going to have his opportunities today against the terrible Tigers’ defense. Note as well that Mempis is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 on the road (including 0-3 ATS this season), while ECU is already 3-1 ATS this year as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. T.M. Prediction: 35-31 Memphis. |
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11-02-18 | Colorado v. Arizona -4 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona (8*) Colorado comes in off a disheartening 41-34 OT loss to Oregon State at home and I believe it’ll stumble here in this difficult venue as well. Arizona is now trending in the opposite direction though, off a big 44-15 win at home over No. 19 Oregon last weekend. Colorado is averaging 32 PPG and allowing 23.9. Arizona is averaging 26.3 PPG and allowing 26.4. Note as well that the Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight at home, while the Buffaloes are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine after posting more than 280 yards in their previous outing. T.M. Prediction: 35-21 Wildcats. |
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11-02-18 | Western Kentucky +14 v. Middle Tennessee State | 10-29 | Loss | -115 | 121 h 48 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: WKU (8*) WKU has been a disaster so far this year, its lone win coming against Ball State. MTSU has won two in a row, but I think the home side is going to get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. WKU is averaging only 19.8 PPG, but the defense has been decent in conceding 30. MTSU QB Brent Stockstill looked decent last week, but note that the Blue Raiders are still 0-4 ATS in their last four after two or more consecutive SU victories. No outright victory here, but a very solid back door cover. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-24 Blue Raiders. |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 120 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh (8*) The Cavs have won three straight and while they may ultimately win their fourth in a row, I don’t expect the Panthers to go down without a fight. Pitt comes in off a big 54-45 win over Duke last weekend as V’Lique Carter would explode for 137 yards and two TD’s: “He’s a player on offense right now,” head coach Pat Narduzzi assured. “That’s where he’ll stay right now…. “He’s fast. Obviously he’ll get a few more carries [against Virginia].” The Cavs suffocating defense has led the charge during the recent surge, but I think they’ll have their hands full today with this dynamic Panthers’ offense which comes in on top form. Not as well that Pittsburgh is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while UVA is still just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 26-23 Virginia |
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10-31-18 | Ball State +14 v. Toledo | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Toledo had lost two in a row before a big upset win over WMU last Thursday. Ball State has plenty of issues and it enters off a back-to-back wins over EMU and Ohio. Ball State in fact lost 52-14 to the Bobcats last week. Starting QB Riley Neal was injured early though and backup Drew Plitt struggled in his time. However, with a week off to prepare, Plitt will have his opportunities against this “on again, off again” Toledo defense in my opinion. Note that Toledo starting QB Mitch Guadagni suffered an injury in last week’s rout of WMU as well. That means that Eli Peters is now the starting QB and he’s had mixed results. Note as well that Ball State is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range, while Toledo is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 6-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 35-28 Toledo. |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | Top | 42-51 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo (10* MONEY-MAKER) Miami Ohio enters off a tough 31-30 double OT setback to Army, while the Bulls posted a convincing 31-17 road victory over Toledo. Note that this is a revenge game for Buffalo after it fell 24-14 on the road in this series last year. Miami is averaging 26.2 PPG and allowing 24.9. The Bulls are averaging 32.9 PPG and allowing only 21.1. The Redhawks have been playing better defensively of late, but I think they’ll take a step back in this difficult road venue. Note as well that Miami Ohio is just 1-2 ATS in its last three off its bye week, while Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points, this one has “rout” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 30-21 Buffalo. |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings -1 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -120 | 168 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR). Both teams are surging and each comes in off a victory. The Saints though won on the road last week and asking New Orleans to do it again this weekend in this difficult venue is going to be too much for even Drew Brees in my opinion. The Saints have been tough against the run, but poor against the pass, which doesn’t bode well facing the ever improving Kirk Cousins and company. Note as well that the Vikes are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 at home. T.M. Prediction: 33-27 Vikes. |
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10-28-18 | Packers +10.5 v. Rams | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 164 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Green Bay Packers (9* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Rams are unbeaten and clearly they’re the better overall team across the board, but I still think that Aaron Rodgers and the under-manned Green Bay Packers will give the home side everything it can handle tonight. It’s hard to imagine anyone “looking past” a match-up against Rodgers, but with a game at surging New Orleans next weekend, it’s definitely not too hard to envision that happening to the Rams in some small way as well. Additionally note that LA is a poor 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Green Bay is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two after playing on MNF. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 LA. |
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10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders +1 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -115 | 164 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oakland Raiders (10* GAME OF MONTH) Jon Gruden signed a 10-year $100 million contract. Dominating in his very first year is not a priority. That said, a 1-5 start is obviously not what he hand in mind either. Oakland still possesses plenty of talent on both sides of the ball though and coming out of their bye, I believe the Raiders take advantage of a Colts team which looks poised for a bit letdown here after last week’s victory. Andrew Luck has looked good so far this year, but so too has Derek Carr for the Raiders. Note as well that the Colts are still a terrible 11-17 ATS in their last 28 against conference opponents and only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3. Expect Gruden to punch another one into the win column this afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 29-25 Oakland. |
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10-28-18 | Browns +7.5 v. Steelers | 18-33 | Loss | -105 | 161 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Browns (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) These teams played to a 21-21 tie in Week 1 in Cleveland. Clearly we’re not going to see another “tie” game, however a “battle till the end” is fully anticipated. The Steelers have made big strides since Week 1, but Cleveland’s strength in special teams and on defense keep this one competitive late in my opinion. Baker Mayfield will be given the green light to make some plays today and I think he’ll have opportunity as well against a Steelers unit which has looked shaky at times this season. Further note that the Browns are already 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while the Steelers are just 1-3 ATS as the favorite. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Steelers. |
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10-28-18 | Jets v. Bears -5.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 161 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Bears (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Jets are injured. RB Bilal Powell was lost for the season in last week’s blowout setback for New York. The Bears are in desperate need of a victory, but the remain competitive on both sides of the ball. A big blowout victory is just what the doctor ordered to get their season back on track and the lowly Jets are the perfect opponent to do that against. Jets’ QB Sam Darnold struggled last week and I think he’ll have difficulties in this hostile road venue this afternoon as well. Additionally note that the Jets are only 4-6 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. T.M. Prediction: 30-17 Chicago. |
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10-27-18 | Hawaii +23.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 20-50 | Loss | -106 | 147 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hawaii (10* TRADE-MARK) Hawaii enters off a 40-22 loss to Nevada, while Fresno State comes in off a 38-7 road victory over New Mexico. Fresno State posted the 31-21 road win in Hawaii last year and I predict a similar point discrepancy here as well once it’s all said and done. So far Hawaii is averaging 34.9 PPG and allowing 32.9. Fresno State is averaging 38 PPG and allowing only 12.6. But note that the Bulldogs are just 1-2 ATS in their last three as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range, while Hawaii is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the same points range. No outright, but expect a tight battle. Play on Hawaii. T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Fresno State. |
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10-27-18 | NC State v. Syracuse -1 | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 144 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Syracuse (8* MONEY-MAKER!) NC State comes in off a deflating 41-7 loss to Clemson, while Syracuse comes in off a confidence-building 40-37 double OT victory over UNC. Syracuse plays with revenge here as well after NC State posted a 33-25 home win in the series last year. Overall NC State is averaging 28.7 PPG and allowing 20.8. The Orange have scored at least 30 points in six of their seven games and they’re allowing an average of 26.9 PPG. Note as well that Syracuse is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival, while NC State is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 following a conference game, including 0-2 ATS this season. T.M. Prediction: 37-30 Orange. |
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10-27-18 | Duke -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | 45-54 | Loss | -106 | 140 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Duke (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) With a win Duke will become bowl eligible. The Panthers present the perfect opponent to try and attain that as they’re just 3-4, most recently coming off a loss to Notre Dame. Duke only managed 58 rushing yards in last week’s loss, but that was against Virginia, one of the best defenses in the nation. The Panthers are struggling across the board as well, especially offensively, last in yard per attempt in the country at just 5.9. QB Kenny Pickett has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game this year either. Note as well that Duke is already 3-0 ATS on the road this year, while Pittsburgh is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 at home. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Blue Devils. |
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10-27-18 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +6 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 137 h 59 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Northwestern (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Wisconsin comes in off a blowout win over Illinois and I think it’ll be caught a little flat-footed against a Northwestern team desperate for a victory. The Badgers average 33 PPG, but QB Alex Hornibrook looked pretty average in last week’s win, finishing 13 of 22 for 188 yards, three TD’s, but also two INT’s. Northwestern is averaging just 24.3 PPG, but it’s also allowing only 24.6 PPG. RB Isaiah owed had 108 yards and two TD’s in last week’s 18-16 win over Rutgers. Note though that Wisconsin is already 0-2 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival, while Northwestern is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU victories. T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Badgers. |
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10-27-18 | Wake Forest +1.5 v. Louisville | Top | 56-35 | Win | 100 | 137 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wake Forest (10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR) The Demon Deacons are hungry to get back on track here after losing four of their last five, while Louisville enters on a four-game slide as well after falling to BC this past weekend. Wake Forest is averaging 30.1 PPG and it’s allowing 37.0. Louisville is averaging just 20.4 PPG while allowing 33.4. Two bottom feeders, but Wake has the much more coherent offense at this point. Also note that the Cardinals are a terrible 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games, while Wake Forest is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight against teams with a losing record. T.M. Prediction: 37-30 Wake Forest. |
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10-26-18 | Wyoming +2.5 v. Colorado State | 34-21 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Wyoming (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) It’s a big game for both teams despite overall disappointing campaigns for each to this point. But each stands with five total wins, meaning that one more and it’ll become “eligible.” In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever school has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. Wyoming’s offense has been horrible this year, but the Cowboys have been stout defensively. Last week Wyoming QB Sean Chamber was decent, running for 100 yards on 19 attempts. Colorado State has given up 37.8 PPG this season and the offense is completely one-dimensional as well. I have a hard time seeing the Rams mustering much of an offensive attack tonight. I think Wyoming wins outright. T.M. Prediction: 26-21 Wyoming. |
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +4 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston College (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Hurricanes come in flustered after their stunning loss to Virginia and I think the hungry Eagles will make the most of this opportunity. Last week Miami Florida fell flat in a 16-13 road loss to the Cavaliers, while BC smashed Louisville 38-20. Miami is making a permanent shift at QB now after last week’s disaster, as N’Kosi Perry is gone and senior Malik Rosier is back running the show. Probably a good move overall, but the uncertainty at this point of the season at the most important position isn’t a good thing. Miami’s vaunted defense is going to have its hands full today as well trying to slow down Eagles’ RB Ben Glines, who had 219 rushing yards and two TD’s last weekend. Note that the Hurricanes are just 7-12 ATS in their last 19 following a conference contest, while BC is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in the same position. I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Miami Florida. |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins +7 v. Texans | Top | 23-42 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Dolphins (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) These teams are moving in opposite directions. Miami has lost three straight, most recently a 32-21 home loss to Detroit, while Houston has won four straight, most recently a 20-7 road victory over Jacksonville. The good news for the Dolphins though is that there still in the mix sitting at 4-3 and I believe that they’ll give the over-confident Texans everything they can handle this evening. Ryan Tannehill is out for the Fish, but Brock Osweiler now has plenty of experience, and I don’t personally see much of a difference between the two pivots anyways. The Texans may have won four straight, but their offense continues to underwhelm. Note that Houston is already 0-2 ATS this year as a 3.5 to 9.5 points favorite and only 1-5 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 23-20 Dolphins. |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State -7.5 v. Georgia Southern | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 23 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Appalachian State (8*) Both teams have been hot, but I think the combination of App State’s offense and defense will be just too much for the Eagles to handle tonight. App State has scored at least 35 points in every game prior to its win this last weekend over the Ragin Cajun, while also holding four straight opponents previous to Arkansas State to just single digits in scoring. Georgia Southern is fifth in the country in rushing with 276.6 per contest, but overall the offense is averaging a woeful 352.4 YPG. That’s not going to cut it against the high-flying Mountaineers this weekend. Note that the Eagles are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with winning road records, while App State is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road. T.M. Prediction: 35-23 Mountaineers. |
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10-25-18 | Toledo +5 v. Western Michigan | 51-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toledo (8*) Toledo looks to get back on track after a 31-17 home loss to Buffalo, while WMU enters off a 35-10 road win over CMU in its previous action. The Rockets are averaging 39.3 PPG and they’re allowing 34.3. QB Eli ethers has a 6/2 TD:INT, while Michell Guadagni has an 11/3 TD:INT. WMU is averaging 36.4 PPG and it’s allowing 28.4. QB Jon Wassink has been decent with a 16/6 TD:INT. I’ll point out though that the Broncos are just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 off a win against a conference rival and only 7-8 ATS In their last 15 at home. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 37-31 Rockets. |
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10-25-18 | Ball State +11 v. Ohio | 14-52 | Loss | -123 | 97 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (8*) Ball State is 2-2 after losing to EMU 42-20 most recently, while Ohio is 2-1 in the MAC after destroying Bowling Green 49-14 in its most recent action. The Cardinals are averaging 25 PPG and they’re ranked 82nd in the country on the defensive side. Ball State QB Riley Neal has 1,841 passing yards and a decent 10:4 TD/INT. Ohio is averaging 36.3 PPG and it’s allowing 31. QB Nathan Rourke had four TD passes against the lowly Green Falcons last week, but note that Ohio is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the same range. I’m expecting a much tighter battle than what this spread would suggest, so grab the points! T.M. Prediction: 34-30 Ohio. |
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10-23-18 | Troy v. South Alabama +11 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -100 | 50 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: South Alabama (10* MONEY-MAKER) Troy has been pretty good, it’s averaging 33.7 PPG and it’s allowing only 24.6. Conversely South Alabama is averaging 25.7 PPG and allowing 39.3. But the Trojans’ offense has suffered a major blow as starting QB Kaleb Barker has been lost for the season to injury. The Trojans come in off a surprising 22-16 road loss to Liberty in which backup QB Sawyer Smith had 135 passing yards with one TD and one INT. Jaguars’ QB Evan Orth has 1,366 passing yards an a decent 7:3 TD/INT. Note as well that Troy is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after scoring 17 points or less in its previous contest. No outright, but closer than expected. T.M. Prediction: 30-24 Troy. |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys v. Redskins | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 127 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Redskins (9* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Both teams come in a 3-3, but I think the Redskins are going to find a way to get the job done at home today. Dallas enters off a 40-7 win over Jacksonville at home, as RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards and a TD, while Dak Prescott had 183 passing yards and two TD’s. The defense looked good against an impotent Jags’ attack, but I think the unit will have its hands full today in this difficult road venue. Washington’ QB Alex Smith had 163 yards and two TD’s with no INT’s in last weeks’ 23-17 win over a difficult Carolina team. Note that Dallas is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while Washington is already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Washington. |
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10-21-18 | Patriots -3 v. Bears | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New England Patriots (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Patriots come in off a huge victory over the Chiefs on Sunday night and I think Tom Brady and company will carry that momentum over here. The Bears on the other hand come in off a terrible home loss to a Miami team which was led by Brock Osweiler. And that doesn’t bode well facing Brady, who had 340 yards and a TD in last week’s shootout win over KC. Pats’ rookie RB Sony Michel had a huge game as well, finishing with 106 yards and two TD’s. With Julian Edelman back in the line-up, the Patriots’ offense is finally rounding into form. The Pats looked terrible defensively last week, but facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is one thing and facing Mitch Trubisky and the Bears is obviously quite another. Note that Chicago is just 1-3-1 ATS in it last five after allowing 150 rushing yards in its previous game, while New England is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss. T.M. Prediction: 30-20 Patriots. |
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10-21-18 | Browns +3.5 v. Bucs | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 123 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Browns (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) I think the Bucs will be a popular pick here with many, but I don’t think that the defensive coordinator change for Tampa is going to change too much on that side of the ball in such a short time. And that leaves the door open for Baker Mayfield and company, who will clearly be given the green light to air it out early and often. The Browns are once again going through a transition on the offensive side of the ball, but the defense and special teams remains decent and I think they’ll help keep the hungry visiting side in this game late. Remember, a week before last week’s 34-29 loss to Atlanta, the Bucs allowed six passing TD’s to the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky. Note that Cleveland is already 2-0 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa Bay is only 8-10 ATS in its last 18 at home. T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Cleveland. |
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10-20-18 | Central Florida v. East Carolina +21 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -108 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: East Carolina (10* GAME OF MONTH) UCF is 5-0, most recently holding on for a tight 31-30 win over Memphis. ECU is just 1-3 in its last four after having its ass handed to it by Houston last weekend. The Pirates are desperate and I don’t think they’ll go down this weekend without a fight. I’m not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a a much tighter battle than what this large spread would suggest. The Knights are scoring a lot of points, but I think they get caught “looking past” their opponent tonight. Note that ECU starts a new QB in Holton Ahlers, who led ECU to a pair of fourth-quarter TD’s, finishing 137 yards, one TD and no INT. Note that ECU is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while UCF is already 0-2 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 40-25 UCF. |
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10-20-18 | Penn State -14 v. Indiana | 33-28 | Loss | -109 | 124 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Penn State (8*) Penn State will be eager to get back on track here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 21-17 setback to Michigan State on Saturday. Indiana also dropped its second straight in a 42-16 setback at home to Iowa. Penn State comes in averaging 44.2 PPG and allowing only 21. QB Trace McSorley has a sharp 11:2 TD/INT. Indiana averages only 26.1 PPG and it allows 28.1. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. The Hoosiers allowed Iowa QB Nathan Stanley to throw for 320 yards and six TD’s. Note that Indiana is 0-7 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss and 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 40 points. T.M. Prediction: 40-21 Nittany Lions. |
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10-20-18 | Houston -12.5 v. Navy | 49-36 | Win | 100 | 124 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Houston (8*) Houston comes in on top form, having won three straight, most recently a convincing 42-20 win over ECU on the road last Saturday. Navy on the other hand has zero momentum, it dropped its third in a row in a 24-17 home loss to Temple last weekend. Houston is averaging 48.7 PPG (ranked 3rd) and allowing only 28. QB D’Eriq King has 1,571 passing yards to go along with 20 TD’s, three INT’s and 225 rushing yards and eight more TD’s on the ground. The Mids are averaging only 28 PPG and they’re allowing 31.8. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Note as well that Navy is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after posting more than 170 passing yards in its previous game, while Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a losing home record. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 41-20 Houston. |
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10-20-18 | UL-Lafayette +24 v. Appalachian State | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 124 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Lafayette (8*) The Ragin’ Cajuns broke a three-game slide with a win over New Mexico State and they’re going to have their hands full here with an App State team which hasn’t lost since an Opening Day setback to Penn State. The Mountaineers are averaging 48.8 PPG, but I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent today. Lafayette’ QB Andre Nunez finished with 315 passing yards and five TD’s last week and I think the senior QB carries that momentum over here. Note though that Lafayette is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 on the road and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records, while App State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. T.M. Prediction: 40-30 App State. |
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10-20-18 | North Carolina v. Syracuse -10.5 | Top | 37-40 | Loss | -102 | 121 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Syracuse (10* BLOWOUT GAME OF YEAR) The Tar Heels come in off a 22-19 loss to Virginia Tech, while Syracuse comes in focused and rested off its bye week. Previous to that the Orange fell 44-37 in OT at Pittsburgh. UNC though is averaging only 20.6 PPG, while allowing 33.8. QB Nathan Elliot has underwhelmed with 920 yards passing and a poor 4:4 TD/INT. The Orange average 43 PPG and they allow only 25.2. QB Eric Dungey has 1,208 yards with ten TD’s and four INT’s. Note that Syracuse is 3-0-1 ATS In its last four games on field turf, while the Tar Heels are just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position. T.M. Prediction: 45-25 Orange. |
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10-19-18 | Colorado State v. Boise State -23 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 124 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boise State (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Colorado State comes in off a 20-17 home win over New Mexico, while Boise State posted a 31-27 road victory over Nevada. The Rams are averaging only 24.6 PPG still, while allowing 35.1. Their passing game is ranked 20th in the country, but the run game has been anemic. Boise State is averaging 36.2 PPG and it’s allowing only 21.8. QB Brett Rypien had 299 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s victory. Note that Colorado State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six though after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Boise State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. T.M. Prediction: 50-13 Boise State. |
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10-18-18 | Stanford v. Arizona State +3 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 3 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona State (10* GAME OF WEEK) Stanford’s lost two straight. RB Bryce love is expected back in the line-up after missing the last two games, but one has to wonder how the Cardinal’ star RB’s form is at the moment? Note that Stanford has already been held to 21 points or fewer on three occasions already this year. ASU also enters off its bye, timely as QB Manny Wilkins suffered a minor injury in the 28-21 loss to Colorado: “I got a little rest; I was really eager (to be back),” Wilkins assured. “When you don’t play for a week, and I’m in my senior season…. I got here [Sunday] morning and I was smiling. It was like I had a mini-offseason. I’m ready to get back in here and finish this thing off with my guys.” Note that ASU is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 7-3 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records, while Stanford is interestingly 0-3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 ASU. |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 156 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Chiefs (10* TRADE-MARK) I’m banking on Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs offense to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I don’t think that Tom Brady and the Pats will be able to match pace. KC enters off a convincing 30-14 win over Jacksonville. The Pats started off 1-2, but they come in off back-to-back victories, including a 38-24 win over the Colts most recently. With a chance to grab top spot in the AFC with a win tonight, I think the visitors will push the home side to the brink. The numbers support us as well, as note that IC is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 30-25 KC. |
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10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans +2.5 | 21-0 | Loss | -100 | 152 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee Titans (9* BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams come in off losses. Baltimore fell 12-9 in OT on the road in Cleveland and I think it struggles again away from friendly confines. The Titans return home off a 13-12 road loss in Buffalo. A little home cooking is what the doctor ordered to get back on track though, as Tennessee took this matchup here last November, 23-20. The Ravens numbers are skewed a bit because of a couple of big games to open the year, but they’ve been consistently sliding backwards since. Tennessee is struggling to put points on the board, but it’s defense has been excellent thus far, conceding just 17.2 PPG. I think Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota and the offense response finally in this crucial game. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Titans. |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 152 h 46 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Denver Broncos (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) LA went on the road and beat the Seahawks 33-31 last weekend. It was a tougher than expected battle and LA enters this non-conference road game with a perfect record thus far. Denver on the other hand returns to Mile High off a humbling 34-16 setback on the road to the Jets. I think this one sets up great for the home side from a situational stand point. It’s difficult to win on the road in the NFL, let alone cover a spread. LA ran out of gas last week and I expect it to have its hands full today with a Denver team that will be out to push the pace and atone for last week’s pathetic effort. Note that Denver is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 30 or more points in its previous contest, while LA is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Rams. |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals +10.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 149 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Cardinals (10* DOG OF THE YEAR) Arizona comes in confident after its 28-18 road win over San Francisco last weekend. The Vikes have been “hit or miss” this year and I believe they’re poised for a letdown after last week’s difficult 23-21 victory over the Eagles. The Cards offense has been terrible this year (last in many statistical offensive categories), but the unit took a big step in the right direction last week. The Arizona defense though has been solid, last week holding the 49ers to 18 points and the Seahawks to just 20 the week before that. So that doesn’t bode well for Minnesota, which is averaging only 22.6 PPG. The defense is a shell of its former self as well, allowing 26.2 PPG this year. I think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. T.M. Prediction: 21-17 Vikes. |
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10-13-18 | Wyoming +19.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wyoming (10* MWC GAME OF YEAR) Wyoming comes in focused and hungry here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 17-13 road setback to a much improved Hawaii team last weekend. Fresno State comes in complacent after its third straight win, most recently edging Nevada 21-3 on the road last Saturday. Last year’s match-up was battle as well, with the Bulldogs holding on for the 13-7 win. These teams are completely mismatched on paper, but note that Wyoming is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. I look for the Bulldogs to go up early and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Fresno State. |
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10-13-18 | Baylor +17 v. Texas | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 141 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baylor (8*) I think Texas takes a step back here and comes in a bit flat after five straight wins. The Longhorns most recently needed a last second nail-bitter to beat Oklahoma this past weekend. Baylor most recently got the better of K-State 37-34 this past weekend: “I told our guys at halftime that we statistically dominated,” Bears’ head coach Matt Rhule assessed afterwards. “We just weren’t able to put all the points on the board that we probably would like to. But I thought our guys didn’t panic. We found a way to fight down the stretch and found a way to win in the fourth quarter.” “We were pretty bad offensively a lot of the game,” Brewer admitted. “We were by no means perfect. But when it mattered the most we battled it out. Good teams do that–find a way. And we found a way in the end. The more you can get used to that and build your confidence up late in the game in the fourth quarter, I think it’s really important for the team.” As mentioned off the top, after their massive 48-45 win over Oklahoma, I think Texas takes a predictable step back here (note that the Longhorns are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven after two or more consecutive SU wins and just 1-3 ATS in their last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.) T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Horns. |
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10-13-18 | Temple v. Navy +4.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -106 | 141 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Navy (8*) Temple comes in a tiny bit complacent here after starting league play 2-0, most recently demolishing ECU 49-6 this past weekend. It’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Mids though after they were smashed 35-7 at Air Force last weekend. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for Navy after the Owls upset the Midshipmen 34-26 as a 6.5 point favorite last year. Tample’s weakness on defense is against the run as well, allowing 165.7 YPG, which clearly doesn’t bode well facing Navy’s option attack. Navy head coach Ken Niumatololo believes his team will be better on both sides of the ball this week: “I thought we were playing well on defense, but we just got worn down because we couldn’t get anything going offensively,” Niumatalolo said about last week’s loss. “Defensively, our guys just ran out of gas because they were out on the field so much. We’re not going to put that game on the defense. We have to play better on offense.” The Owl have been an ATS covering machine the last two seasons, but the chance for a “letdown” here remains. Also note that Navy is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home and 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Navy. |
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10-13-18 | Washington v. Oregon +3.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 141 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oregon (8*) Washington comes to town off a much tougher than expected 31-24 road win over UCLA last weekend and now the Huskies are being asked to cover another spread as the favorite on the road this Saturday. The Ducks will look to take advantage and to build off their 42-24 road win over Cal two weeks ago. Note as well that this is a “revenge” game after the Huskies demolished Oregon 38-3 last year. Washington’s offense isn’t as explosive this season as it was last, ranked 45th in the country with an average of 442.7 YPG. The Huskies’ defense took a step back as well a last week, allowing 422 total yards to a week Bruins team. Note as well that Washington is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five following its bye week. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Ducks. |
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10-13-18 | Iowa v. Indiana +6 | Top | 42-16 | Loss | -106 | 138 h 8 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indiana (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Iowa comes in complacent here in my opinion after its first conference win of the year lats week against Minnesota. Indiana has struggled to open conference play though and it’ll be eager to atone itself after getting killed by Ohio State last weekend. The Hawkeyes enter off the 48-31 upset win over Minnesota. Note though that Iowa has now allowed 59 points over its last two games. Indiana opened the season 3-0, but it’s since gone 1-2 in Conference action, with its lone victory coming over Rutgers. However, the Hoosiers are still very much in contention for a bowl spot and I expect the home side to leave everything on the field of play this afternoon. One player to keep your eyes one for the Buckeyes is RB Stevie Scott, who leads the team with 528 yards and five TD’s on the ground. Additionally note that Iowa is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Indiana is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against teams with winning records. T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Hoosiers. |
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10-12-18 | Air Force +9 v. San Diego State | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 124 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Air Force (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Outright upset? The books certainly don’t want us to think that. However, I do indeed think you should “sprinkle a little” on the money line here as well as I look for the hungry Air Force Falcons to keep this one competitive against the complacent Aztecs. Air Force broke a three-game slide with an impressive 35-7 destruction of Navy at home last Saturday, while SDSU won its fourth straight in a 19-13 upset victory over Boise State on the blue turf of Boise Stadium last weekend. Can anyone say “letdown/trap” game?! Note as well that to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as note that SDSu has won seven straight in the series, including a 28-24 victory on the road last September 23rd. Air Force is averaging 31.4 PPG and it’s allowing 22. SDSU is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 19.8. Additionally note that the Aztecs are 0-2 ATS in their last two as a home fav in the 10.5 to 14 points range. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Aztecs. |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Eagles (10* TV GAME OF THE YEAR) I think the Giants are going to be a popular pick with many. But I’m going the other way as I expect the defending champs to dig deep and to find a way to get the job done here on the short week. Philadelphia will be turning to Carson Wentz in this one after RB Jay Ajayi went down with injury last week. Despite being just 2-3 overall, Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on the combination of Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor, who have 649 yards and two TD’s between them. Overall the defense remains the strength of the Eagles right now, the unit currently allowing 20.8 PPG. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, because at 1-4, the Giants are basically out of playoff contention already anyways. Eli Manning has been decent for New York with 1,381 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard have 766 receiving yards combined along with three TD’s. Overall New York is allowing 23.8 PPG. But note that the Giants are still just 3-7 ATS in their last ten at home, while the Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 played in New York. I think Philly’s tough defensive plays propels the visitors to a solid victory on Thursday night. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Eagles. |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU -8.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: TCU (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) TCU smashed Texas Tech 27-3 last year and I believe the Horned Frogs will have their way with the Red Raiders this season as well. Texas Tech comes to town dejected off a 42-34 home loss to WVU, while TCU comes in confident after it’s tougher than expected 17-14 home win over Iowa State in its latest action two weeks ago. Off its bye and with the extra time off to prepare, I’m absolutely expecting a lop-sided destruction once it’s all said and done. TT also enters off its bye week after getting destroyed by the Mountaineers, allowing 489 yards of offense, including 370 through the air. Overall the Red Raiders allow 31 PPG while averaging 48.4 PPG. The Horned Frogs though are giving up just 20.8 PPG, while averaging 31.6. QB Shawn Robinson had 182 yards and two TD’s in the win over Iowa State two weeks ago. Note as well that TCU is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 following its bye week, while Texas Tech is interestingly just 1-5 ATS in its last six games on grass. T.M. Prediction: 40-23 Horned Frogs. |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +7 | Top | 35-9 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arkansas State (10* MONEY-MAKER). Appalachian State is putting up some ridiculous numbers on both sides of the ball right now, but I think it’ll have its hands full tonight against this hungry Red Wolves team, which I do indeed believe has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. The Mountaineers are averaging 51.8 PPG and allowing only 17. Last week App State hammered South Alabama 52-7. The competition level has definitely skewed the Mountaineers numbers and I think some major “correction” is in store here. And that’s because the Red Wolves are allowing a decent 29.2 PPG on average. Arkansas State comes in off a tough 28-21 loss to Georgia Southern. QB Justice Hansen is a difference maker for sure though in my opinion, as he come sin sporting an elite 11/2 TD:INT. Note as well that App State is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after accumulating more than 450 total yards of offense in its previous game, while the Red Wolves are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five against schools with winning records. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 31-27 App State. |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 142 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Seahawks (10* TRADE-MARK) The Seahawks are essentially playing for their playoff lives this week. LA has so far been the “cream of the crop” in the NFL this year, but I think it’ll stumble just enough for Seattle to at least come through with the solid cover. LA is averaging 35 PPG and it’s allowing only 16.8. Seattle is averaging 21.2 PPG and it’s allowing only 20.2. The Seahawks have won two straight and they enjoy a significant home field advantage. Note as well that that the underdog is 11-5 ATS the last 16 in this series. While Seattle’s defense is not what it once was, it’s still allowing just 204.2 passing yards per game. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Rams. |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 138 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Browns (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) It’s a mid-season AFC North showdown on Sunday. Baltimore is 3-1 after beating Pittsburgh on Sunday, while Cleveland comes in hungry and pissed off after it’s 45-42 OT loss at Oakland. Everything’s been going right for Joe Flacco and the Ravens to this point, but I think the visitors come in a tiny bit complacent here. No such luxury for the Browns though. Cleveland’s offense has already made big strides with Baker Mayfield and RB Nick Chubb, who had 105 yards and two TD’s in last week’s loss to Oakland. The Ravens are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against teams with losing records. Grab the points and expect a war! T.M. Prediction: 24-23 Browns. |
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10-07-18 | Titans -3 v. Bills | 12-13 | Loss | -125 | 138 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee Titans (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I’m expecting a complete blowout here. The Titans railed for a 26-23 OT win over Philadelphia last week, while Buffalo enters off a 22-0 road loss to Green Bay. The Titans average just 18.8 PPG, but they allow only 18.2. Last week Marcus Mariota had his best game of the season, finishing with 344 passing yards with two TD’s and an INT. There’s no reason to to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here in my opinion. The Bills on the other hand are averaging just 12.5 PPG, while allowing 26.5. Rookie QB Josh Allen has a weak 2:4 TD/INT. Note as well that Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Tennessee is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven after posing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. There’s everything to like about Tennessee right now and there’s absolutely nothing to like about Buffalo. I’m laying the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Titans. |
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10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers -7 | 31-33 | Loss | -100 | 138 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) New York’s offense and defense has been terrible so far, which doesn’t bode well facing this Carolina team coming out of its bye week on the road. A big bonus for Carolina today is the return of WR Chris Samuel, who missed the first three games with a heart issue, but who led the preseason with ten catches for 180 yards. The Giants gave up three TD drives of 74 yards or longer in a 33-18 home loss to the Saints on Sunday. New York has posted just five sacks total through five games and it’s held its opposition on third down just 50 percent of the time. Cam Newton and the Panthers are averaging just 203.7 YPG passing, but with a week off to prepare and facing the suspect Giants’ secondary, I look the talented pivot to have a big game in front of the home town crowd. Note that the Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four following their bye week, while the Giants are just 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with an above .500 home record. I’m expecting a blowout. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Panthers. |
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10-06-18 | California +1.5 v. Arizona | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: California (10* TRADE-MARK) Arizona’ QB Khalil Tate was a dual threat QB last year and he pretty much dominated, but this season he’s been turned into a pocket passer and to this point, he’s struggled under the new system. So far he’s passed for under 250 yards in three of his first five games and he’s not rushed for over 38 yards in any of his starts this year, one season after posting 1,411 yards on the ground. The Golden Bears will look to take advantage and to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the year in a 42-24 home setback to No. 19 Oregon. Cal averages 28.5 PPG and it allows 25. Arizona is averaging 31.6 PPG and allowing 28.4. Note as well that the Wildcats are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous contest, while the Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams with losing records. I think Tate continues to struggle against Cal’s above average defense. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Cal. |
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10-06-18 | Auburn v. Mississippi State +3.5 | Top | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 147 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mississippi State (10* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR). Auburn enters off a 24-13 win over Southern Miss last week, while Mississippi State will be desperate to get back to its winning ways after a tight 13-6 loss to Florida in its last outing. Note that this is a big time revenge game as well for the home side after it was embarrassed 49-10 in this matchup on the road last year. Auburn got the win last time out, but QB Jarrett Stidham completed just 57 percent of his passes. So far he has a 5/2 TD:INT. Overall the Tigers are averaging 32.6 points and allowing 12.6. Mississippi State is averaging 32.6 PPG and it’s allowing 13.4. QB Nick Fitzgerald had just 98 passing yards last week against a tough Florida defense. Overall he has 640 passing yards and a 4:2 TD/INT. Note though that Mississippi State is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 at home against teams with winning road records, while Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory. In a game that I expect to come down to the wire, I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Mississippi State. |
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10-06-18 | Arizona State +3 v. Colorado | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 143 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona State (8* SIT. BLOWOUT) Colorado hasn’t started 5-0 in 20 years and I think that trend continues here. The Buffaloes come in off a 38-16 win over UCLA. ASU is 3-2 after destroying Oregon State 42-24 at home last Saturday. RB Eno Benjamin finished with a school-record 312 rushing yards in that one and I have a hard time seeing Colorado slowing down the dynamic back here either. “It was a great feeling,” Benjamin assessed afterwards. “Honestly we had a game plan and we knew we were going to run the ball on them. We went through practice and we executed. If you saw the way we practiced this week you would have known it was going to happen and it’s just a testament to our offensive line.” ASU’s achilles heel has been its play on the road, but I think that trend finally comes to an end here. Colorado finally broke into the AP Top 25 after scoring at least 33 points in all four victories, while limiting opponents to just 195.8 passing yards. The Sun Devils catch a break as their offense is so run oriented. Note as well that ASU is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records, while Colorado is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records. I think the Buffs have a letdown finally. T.M. Prediction: 35-30 Sun Devils. |
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10-06-18 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State +5 | 24-16 | Loss | -120 | 142 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (8* BLOWOUT) I think NIU comes in a tiny bit complacent here after it’s 2-0 start in the West Division of the MAC. The Huskies enter off an exhausting 26-23 Triple OT win over EMU and I look for Ball State, who ended a three-game skid by downing Kent State last week. NIU holds teams to just 348.6 YPG so far, but its offense ranks near the bottom of the nation in most statistical categories. Ball State lost to heavyweights Notre Dame and Indiana and while it lost to WKU at home, the Cardinals finally bounced back with a big 52-24 win over Kent State last week, the offense rolling up 606 yards. NIU may have won nine straight in this series, but I think it finally comes up short here. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Ball State. |
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10-06-18 | East Carolina +13 v. Temple | 6-49 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: East Carolina (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) East Carolina enters off a confidence building 37-35 win over ODU. The ECU Pirates are averaging 293.2 YPG passing, good for 24th nationally. ECU QB Reid Herring already has 1,161 yards. Temple is getting treaty play from RB Ryquell Armstead, but overall the offense has stalled, averaging just 357.4 YPG. Note that ECU is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. Temple has issues on both sides of the ball. Expect a competitive battle here. T.M. Prediction: 26-25 Temple. |
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10-05-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Marshall -7.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Marshall (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Middle Tennessee State was destroyed by Georgia and then it bounced back last week with a come-from-behind win over FAU for the 25-24 victory. MTSU’s numbers are likely better than what they’d indicate considering the competition (averages 25 PPG and allows 36.2) I still think the Blue Raiders are in over their heads here. Marshall is averaging only 26.8 PPG this year, but it’s allowing just 24.5. Most of the damage is done through the air by QB Isaiah Green with an average of 277 YPC. Additionally note that MTSU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a win against a conference rival. I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout! T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Herd. |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa +15.5 v. Houston | Top | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 100 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tulsa (10* GAME OF WEEK). Tulsa comes in off a 31-17 loss to a pretty good Temple team on the road. Am I predicting an outright upset here? Of course not. I do think that the Golden Hurricane though can catch the high-powered Cougars “looking past” to its more difficult upcoming road games at ECU, Navy and then at home against UCF. It’s not going to get any easier unfortunately for Tulsa though, with a game at home against 4-0 USF next weekend. I think Tulsa though comes in focused as its offense takes advantage of this suspect Houston secondary. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 40-30 Houston. |
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09-30-18 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 163 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Seahawks (10* NFC WEST “GOY.”) Arizona is winless and the Hawks can put the Cards out of their misery today. While Seattle is a shell of its former self, I still believe that Russell Westbrook will be the difference maker here for the visiting side. The Hawks enter off a confidence building 13 points victory over Dallas last weekend. RB Chris Carson had 102 rushing yards with a TD. The defense also stepped up big, as Earl Thomas had two INT’s. Wilson continues to put up elite numbers, with 716 yards and a 7:3 TD/INT. Arizona enters off a deflating 16-14 home loss to the Bears. Rookie QB Josh Rosen will make his first NFL start here. The offense ranks dead last in many categories, as WR Larry Fitzgerald has just 113 yards on 12 catches with no TD’s (no WR has a TD yet in fact for the Cards.) Note that Arizona is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Seattle is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven in this series as the road team. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 23-17 Hawks. |
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09-30-18 | Texans +2.5 v. Colts | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 160 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Houston Texans (8*) Both teams can’t be happy. Especially Houston though, which is 0-3. Indianapolis comes in off a disappointing 20-16 loss in Philadelphia last week. Houston though is on the cusp of breaking out and despite their season already lost with the terrible start, note that Houston has been averaging 396.3 YPG, but that’s translated into only 19.7 PPG average. Overall the Texans are allowing 24.7. DeAndre Hopkins has been a bright spot with 274 receiving yards in three games. The Colts are averaging 20 PPG and allowing 21. Andrew Luck has a pedestrian 5:3 TD/INT. Indy’s main RB Marlon Mack hasn’t played yet this year and he’s questionable for this one as well. Note that the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the AFC South, while Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against a team with a losing home record. I like DeShaun Watson to guide Houston over Luck and the Colts questionable secondary. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Houston. |
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09-30-18 | Bengals +5.5 v. Falcons | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 160 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Bengals (8*) Atlanta looks ripe for the picking in my opinion. The Falcons opened with a loss to the Eagles, followed by a win over Carolina, which was then followed by a crushing OT loss to division rival New Orleans last week. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Cincinnati is 2-1 despite losing at Carolina last week and while I think it could win this one outright, I’ll grab the points in the end. New Orleans is banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Note that ATL is 0-5 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 250 passing yards, while Cincinnati is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 against teams with losing records. The Falcons’ are also dealing with an injury to No. 1 RB Devonta Freeman. This one has “upset” written all over it. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Bengals. |
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09-30-18 | Jets +10 v. Jaguars | 12-31 | Loss | -130 | 160 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Jets (8*) New York struggled last week, but I think it’ll have enough in the tank to keep this one close down the stretch against the struggling Jaguars’ offense. New York enters off a 21-17 loss at Cleveland, a game which it was in control of for most of. QB Sam Darnold has 701 passing yards, three TDs’ and five INT’s. Overall though the Jets are averaging 25.7 PPG and allowing 19.3. Jacksonville is averaging 19.0 PPG and allowing 14.7. Last week Blake Bortles had 155 yards and overall the offense produced just 12 first downs in the 9-6 loss to Tennessee. Note that RB’s TJ Yeldon and Leonard Fournette are both listed as questionable still. I smell an upset. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 21-18 Jags. |
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09-29-18 | USC -3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 148 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: USC (10* PAC-12 GAME OF YEAR) Arizona comes in off off back-to-back wins, most recently a 35-14 victory over Oregon State last Saturday. USC is 2-2, but it looked pretty good in its 39-36 win over Washington State last week. QB JT Daniels had 241 passing yards and three TD’s: “This week in practice you could feel the chemistry coming,” Trojans’ coach Clay Helton assessed afterwards. “I told Tyler (Vaughns) that their chemistry was that far away. You could feel it practice and I was hoping it was going to show up in the game. Both JT and the wide receivers did a tremendous job with our PO game.” USC has won nine straight games against the division and it’s also won five straight over the Wildcats. Arizona’ QB Khalil Tate has completed just 54.3 percent of his passes (he does have 1,039 yards, eight TD’s and two INT’s.) Tate had 1,411 rushing yards last year, but he has just 32 this season. The Wildcats are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 as an underdog, while USC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards. T.M. Prediction: 33-25 Trojans. |
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09-29-18 | Virginia Tech +4.5 v. Duke | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Virginia Tech (8* BLOWOUT) Virginia Tech is out to atone for a 49-35 upset at the hands of lowly ODU last Saturday. Duke is the prime opponent to get back on track against as I think the Blue Devils comes in complacent after their 55-13 home destruction of North Carolina Central. The Hokie have won two straight in the series, including a 24-3 victory last year. Despite last week’s “brain fart,” note that Virginia Tech is averaging 40.3 PPG and allowing 23. Duke is averaging 37.5 PPG and it’s allowing 15.2. Those numbers are skewed though because of the level of competition, so I’m not reading too much into them quite yet. In fact note that the Blue Devils are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss, while VT is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing 40 or more points in its previous contest. Duke’s down to its backup QB and I think it’ll have a hard time producing much offense against this focused Hokies’ defense. Play on VT. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Hokies. |
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09-29-18 | Northern Illinois +3 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 144 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Northern Illinois (10* TRADE-MARK) Both teams have struggled to open the year. These schools are evenly matched, a sentiment shared by oddsmakers. EMU has lost two straight to Buffalo and San Diego State, while the Huskies are just 1-3, most recently falling to Florida State 37-19: “We’re obviously disappointed with the outcome of the game,” NIU head coach Rod Carey assessed. “We got it to the fourth quarter and I think we had our opportunities at the end with a missed field goal and a missed two-point conversion. We were in a fight, we kept on swinging, but we didn’t land enough punches. You can’t fault our effort.” NIU QB Marcus Childers had 215 yards passing and an 11-yard TD run in the fourth quarter. The Huskies looked good defensively as well, forcing four turnovers, led by ten tackles from Lance Deveaux. EMU lost 23-20 to SDSU last weekend. The Eagles though are having issues at QB right now. Last week Tyler Wiegers was pulled for junior Mike Glass early in the game and he’d go 9 of 16 for 53 yards with one TD and one INT. There were many positives for NIU in its loss to the Seminoles last week and I look for it to build off that against an EMU team searching for an identity on offense. T.M. Prediction: 25-21 Huskies. |
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09-29-18 | Army +6 v. Buffalo | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 138 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Army (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Note that when these teams played last year, it was the Black Knights which pulled off the 21-17 victory. Army comes in off a hard-fought 28-21 road loss to Oklahoma, while Buffalo looks poised for a letdown here in m opinion after its 42-13 road victory over Rutgers. Last week Army’s option posted 339 yards on 78 carries. The Knights’ defense looked sharp as well, allowing just 335 yards to the Sooners. Army had a whopping 44:41 to 15:19 possession edge, but it wasn’t quite enough. It’ll be more than enough against the Bulls though in my opinion. Buffalo is so far averaging 40.2 PPG and allowing 20. However, those numbers are skewed considering the level of competition its played. Army presents a much more difficult challenge and I think the Bulls get caught “off guard” here. Note that Amy is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Buffalo. |
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