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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-15-18 | Ball State v. Indiana -14 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 138 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indiana (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Indiana hasn’t started a season 3-0 since 2015, but I think it’s going to accomplish that feat today. It’s the Hoosiers final tune-up before Big Ten play and I look for the home side to make the most of this opportunity. Ball State is 1-1 and most recently fell 24-16 at then No. 8 Notre Dame last week. With that “oh-so-close” opportunity still in their front of their minds, I think the Cardinals come in flat and distracted here: “I am proud of my guys because we prepared all week to make sure that we’d just fight, scratch and claw, and make sure that you just leave everything you’ve got on the field for 60 minutes,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu assessed afterwards. “I know without a doubt after looking at those guys in the locker room and as we left the field that we left everything we had on the field.” There you have it, they left everything they had on that field and still came up short (note that Ball State has lost eight of its last ten non-conference road games.) Indiana is getting unreal play from RB Stevie Scott, who had 204 yards in last week’s rain soaked victory: “You’ve got to believe in them, and you’ve got to let them go,” Hoosiers coach Tom Allen said of Scott . “The bottom line is that you grow up really fast when you’re forced to. He’s our biggest, strongest back … he’s got huge hands. And he’s really strong and I think that helps with ball security. It was a little unnerving because he is a true freshman, he is green, but I think we saw a guy grow up tonight in front of all of us. Really proud of him. And the O-line made it all happen … we ran the ball really good against a good defense.” Note that Ball State is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. I think the stage is set for the Cardinals to take a step back after last week’s disappointing setback, while I do expect the Hoosiers to build off their recent success with a full four quarter effort here. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-15 Indiana. |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis -24 | Top | 22-59 | Win | 100 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Memphis (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Memphis had a 21-9 half-time lead at Navy last week, but it stumbled in the second half and eventually lost 22-21. As difficult as that setback was, I do indeed look for the Tigers to use that disappointment as “fuel” tonight to crush the Panthers hopes. And speaking of getting crushed, after scoring the first 7 points last week at NC State, Georgia State would then give up 41 unanswered points. It’s not going to get any easier for the lowly Panthers this week either, who are a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as an underdog of 21.5 points or more. Look for the home side to take full advantage and lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-15 Memphis. |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +4.5 | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -106 | 95 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wake Forest (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams won big over their first two games. Last year Wake Forest posted a 34-10 road win over the Eagles and I think another victory in front of the home town crowd is in order here as well. BC QB Anthony Brown only played one quarter in his team’s 62-14 win over Holy Cross last week. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards and the defense limited its lowly opponent to under 200 total yards earned. Wake Forest held Towson to just 65 rushing yards in its 51-20 win last week, a victory which saw QB Sam Hartman go for almost 250 passing yards and two TD’s. Note that BC is still just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 as a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Wake Forest is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. Give me the hungry and confident home dog in a very tight battle. T.M. Prediction: Demon Deacons 30-25. |
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09-08-18 | Arkansas v. Colorado State +12 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 142 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado State (10* GAME OF MONTH) Colorado State comes in desperate as it’s already 0-2 with losses to Colorado and Hawaii. Arkansas though comes in contented after opening the season with a win over Eastern Illinois. Razorbacks QB Cole Kelley struggled in his limited time to begin the game and Storey was put in midway through and he’d go 12 of 17 for 261 yards and three TD’s in just two quarters of action. “Storey was the story,” Eastern Illinois head coach Kim Dameron lamented afterwards. “He came in and hit us on the big plays down the field…. I thought just the way he handled the passing game was impressive.” I think Storey will have his hands full though with a hungry Rams team looking for any type of spark to turn things around. Colorado State has had to play from behind in each of its first two games and QB KJ Carta-Samuels so far has a respectable 537 yards, five TD’s and one INT. The defense has been a disaster, but the Rams catch a break facing the run heavy offense of Arkansas this week. With a game at home against North Texas next weekend, it’s not to hard to imagine the Razorbacks in some small way coming in complacent to this one either. I think the desperation in which Colorado State plays with today turns out to be the difference. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 41-35 Razorbacks. |
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09-08-18 | Ball State +33.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 138 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (10* TRADE-MARK) Notre Dame comes in off a win and cover over Michigan at home last week and I think it’ll suffer enough of a mental letdown here to let lowly Ball State sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the massive spread that it’s been afforded. Ball State was 2-10 last year, mostly due to injury to key players. The Cards were handed a “cream puff” in their opener and they smashed FCS school Central Connecticut State 42-6. Riley Neal and James Gilbert only played three combined games last year, but they’d go on to lead an offense which posted 652 total yards. Neal was 23 of 30 for 258 yards and three TD’s. “We’ve been waiting for this,” Cardinals coach Mike Neu assessed afterwards. “The credit has to go to the offensive line because they give the running back the holes to do what they do. It was good to see 34 (Gilbert) back out there. He’s a warrior. I thought Riley was in control. He made some big throws and checks at the line of scrimmage. I thought he did a good job out there, it was great to have number 15 back out there.” Clearly the Ball State defense, which gave up over 40 PPG last year, will have a much more difficult time today, but regardless it was a huge step in the right direction for the unit. The Irish knocked off the Wolverines 24-17, as the defense would go on to force two turnovers while also limiting Michigan to just 58 rushing yards. QB Brandon Wimbush was just 12 of 22 though for 170 yards, one TD and one INT. I think Notre Dame gets caught looking ahead to its interesting home match-up with Vanderbilt next week. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 40-25 Irish. |
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09-08-18 | North Carolina -14.5 v. East Carolina | 19-41 | Loss | -112 | 138 h 56 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: North Carolina (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) UNC fell to Cal this past weekend, while East Carolina was embarrassed by FCS school North Carolina AT&T. The Tar Heels clearly have issues, but not nearly as many as the Pirates. UNC came out on the short end of a lower-scoring 24-17 setback to California on Friday, QB Nathan Elliot had only 137 yards through the air: “Turnovers and penalties, that’s the game right there,” Tar Heels’ head coach Larry Fedora lamented. “Self-inflicted wounds is what those are…. Whether you get pressure or not you have to make the right decision. If you turn it over like we did you’re going to have a hard time winning the game.” The Pirates looked even more pathetic though and against the lowliest of opponents, falling 28-23 to North Carolina AT&T. “We put the ball on the ground way too many times since I’ve been here,” said ECU head coach Scottie Montgomery afterwards (note the Pirates turned the ball over on three occasions while forcing no turnovers.) “We just can’t have that happen. And all that goes directly to me. There’s no way that I can point the finger at any of these kids. They prepared harder than any group I’ve ever been around and did exactly what we asked them to do.” Note that East Carolina is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten at home, while UNC is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road. Losing to Cal is one thing, but losing to an FCS school is quite another. Lay the points and expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 40-17 Tar Heels. |
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09-08-18 | Western Michigan v. Michigan -26.5 | 3-49 | Win | 100 | 135 h 33 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Michigan (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) WMU opened with a 55-42 home loss to Syracuse last Friday and it now it travels to the Big House to face the No. 14 Michigan Wolverines on Saturday afternoon, a team which comes in off a disappointing 24-17 setback to No. 12 Notre Dame last weekend. The Broncos looked decent offensively last week, but downright terrible on the defensive side of the ball. QB Jon Wassink was a bright spot in the setback to the Orange, going for 379 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s though. Shea Patterson was 20 of 30 for 227 yards, an INT and a fumble in his Wolverines debut. Dylan McCaffrey was four of six for 22 yards. Karan Higdon was a bright spot on the ground with 72 yards. While they fell flat in Week 1, I think the Wolverines will get it together in Week 2. Note that Michigan is 4-1 ATS in tis last five home games against teams with a losing road record, while the Broncos are just 1-4 ATS In their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. I think Patterson settles down and the Wolverines defense does the rest. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-10 Wolverines. |
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09-08-18 | Eastern Michigan +15 v. Purdue | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 134 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Eastern Michigan (8* BLOWOUT) The EMU Eagles come in off a confidence building 51-17 victory over lowly Monmouth last Friday, while Purdue comes in stunned after it’s 31-27 home opening loss to Northwestern. Clearly the Boilermakers will be eager to get into the winners circle, but the Eagles won’t be going down without a fight. I’m not calling for the upset, but I do think Purdue comes in still collectively hung up over its season opening loss. And with upcoming home games against Missouri and Boston College, it’s not to hard to imagine the home side in some small way also getting caught “looking ahead” to those much more important/difficult contests. Last week EMU QB Tyler Wiegers was 18 of 21 for 238 yards and two TD’s. Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar was 18 of 30 for 196 yards, one TD and three INT’s last week, while David Blough was 12 of 16 for 74 yards. I understand that beating Monmouth is one thing, while beating a pissed off Purdue team at home is quite another. But as I mentioned above, I’m not calling for an outright upset. I do definitely think though that the stage is set for a competitive battle. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Boilermarkers. |
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