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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Over NIU/UAB (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Despite these being two extremely defensive minded clubs, I’m expecting more of a wide open offensive affair. NIU averaged only 20.7 PPG, while allowing 21.8. UAB averaged 29.7 and only allowed 17.9. But with a couple of week’s off to prepare and game-plan, I think this one will sneak above the number once it’s all said and done. And the O/U trends support that theory, as note that NIU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog, while UAB has seen the total soar over in all four games it played in this year when the total was set between 42.5 and 49 points. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 UAB. |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: ASU/Fresno State under (10*) Arizona State finished 7-5, while Fresno State was 11-2. Note that the Sun Devils will be without the services of their top receiver N’Keal Harry as he skips the bowl to prepare for the draft. This is a major blow for Manny Wilkins and company. Fresno State earned this spot by posting a 19-16 OT win over Boise State and I’m expecting a similar dominant defensive performance here as well. ASU has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 off a win vs. a conference rival, while Fresno State has seen the total go under in its last three games off an upset win as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Fresno State. |
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12-15-18 | North Texas v. Utah State -7.5 | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 68 h 4 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Utah State (8*) Both teams had pretty good seasons, but I have a hard time seeing North Texas matching pace with the high-flying Aggies. North Texas was 9-3 this year, while Utah State was 10-2. The Mean Green averaged 36.4 PPG and it allowed 21.8. Utah State though averaged 47.2 PPG and it allowed only 23. The Aggies are elite on both sides of the ball and they’re also a perfect 4-0 ATS this year in non-conference games. Look for the high-powered Utah State offense to be the difference in this one. T.M. Prediction: 45-21 Aggies. |
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12-15-18 | Tulane v. UL-Lafayette +3.5 | 41-24 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 34 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Louisiana Lafayette (8*) Tulane features the slightly better defense, but the Green Wave were horrible offensively and I think they’ll have a hard time matching pace with the Ragin Cajuns. Tulane averages 25.7 PPG. The Green Wave also struggled defensively against the pass, allowing 265.2 YPG. The Cajuns feature a more explosive offense and they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games, while Tulane is only 1-4 ATS in its last five on field turf. Grab the points, but don’t be shocked by an outright upset! T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Louisiana Lafayette. |
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12-08-18 | Navy +7 v. Army | Top | 10-17 | Push | 0 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Navy (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Army went into this game last year with an identical 9-2 record and after winning 14-13, it finished at 10-2. Now the Knights have a chance to do that again. Navy is only 3-9 and it’s going to suffer its first losing season since 2002. Clearly the Midshipmen aren’t happy: “It has obviously been disappointing,” lamented senior linebacker Hudson Sullivan recently. “It’s not the kind of season that any of us even remotely imagined we would have had,” continued Sullivan, who will be playing in his fourth Army-Navy game (the last two of which his team has lost.) “When the season started we were looking forward to having a winning season, beating Army, playing for the conference championship and going to a bowl game. That didn’t happen. So as big as winning the Army-Navy game usually is, it would mean more this year…. We’re going into the game to play as hard as we can and to beat Army and put a black mark on their season. As seniors, it would be a great way to end our career.” All of the pressure is now on the Knights, who are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 20-17 Army. |
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12-01-18 | Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 61 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Over Northwestern/Ohio State (8*) Ohio State will need to win this game handily and get some outside help if it has any hopes of earning a Playoff spot. Northwestern won’t be rolling over here as the Wildcats will be looking to pull off an epic upset. I’m expecting each side to really push the pace whenever possible and as such, from a situational stand point this one definitely sets up as a “shootout.” However also note that NW has seen the total go over in six of its last nine following a home win. T.M. Prediction: 47-21 Buckeyes. |
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12-01-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State OVER 52 | 19-16 | Loss | -125 | 35 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Over Fresno State/Boise State (8*) These teams met in the final last year as well and Boise State won 17-14. Boise State beat Fresno State here at Albertsons Stadium earlier in the season 24-17 as well. It’s a double revenge scenario for Fresno State, but whether or not the Bulldogs can avenge those two setbacks is yet to be seen. However, instead of a defensive affair I’m expecting much more of a wide open affair this time around. The Bulldogs average 36.3 PPG, and the Broncos average 37. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Broncos. |
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12-01-18 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh +28 | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh (8*) Clemson is scoring 45.7 PPG and outscoring its opposition by 31.7 PPG this year. But the Tigers are starting to show signs of wearing down. Two of Clemson’s last three games by been decided by 21 points or less and last week vs. South Carolina the Tigers would go on to give up 510 yards through the air. The Panthers’ steady play on the defensive side is the difference here and keeps them competitive late. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Clemson. |
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12-01-18 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 64.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 126 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Under Georgia/Alabama (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). It’s a rematch of last year’s Championship Final. Georgia plays with revenge and the winner of this gets a ticket to the Playoff Tournament. Both teams features top notch offenses and elite defensive units. Alabama though ranks third in the nation in allowing just 13.8 PPG, while Georgia ranks 10th in scoring defense with 17.2 PPG. Note that Georgia has seen the total go under in three of its last four after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games, while Alabama has seen the total go under in seven of its last nine after two straight victories by 28 or more points. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 31-21 Tide. |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 30-29 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). Buffalo went 10-2 this year, including 7-1 in MAC actin, while the Huskies went 7-5 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Bulls after Northern Illinois won this game last year 14-13. Buffalo is rolling, having scored at least 30 points in all but three games this year. Overall Buffalo is averaging 35.2 PPG and allowing 24.2. NIU is averaging only 19.9 PPG and it’s allowing 20.9. The Huskies are over matched in all three phases and I’m expecting a blowout. Note as well that NIU is just 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games, while the Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. teams with winning records and 8-1 ATS in their last nine against the conference. NIU has lost two straight, managing just 28 points in those setback. I’m banking on the Bulls dominating from start to finish. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-21 Buffalo. |
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11-24-18 | Utah State +3 v. Boise State | 24-33 | Loss | -109 | 146 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Utah State (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) Utah State has won ten straight and after a near catastrophe against lowly Colorado State, I believe the Aggies come in focused on the task at hand and continue their red hot offensive campaign. Utah State plays with revenge and note that it’s been “lights out” in this spot for bettors all season by going 2-0 ATS as an underdog, 6-2 ATS after two or more SU wins and 3-1 ATS in its last four at home. Boise State on the other hand is still only 5-12 ATS in its last 17 at home and just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with winning records. T.M. Prediction: 37-29 Utah State. |
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11-24-18 | Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -5.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 140 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Florida (8* MONEY-MAKER) Pitt comes in off a very satisfying 34-13 road win over Wake Forest last Saturday and I believe it’ll have a predictable letdown here. With that win the Panthers won the Coastal Division title. Miami enters off a 38-14 blowout win over Virginia Tech, but the Hurricanes won’t be “looking past” their opponent today after the Panthers scored the upset 24-14 win last year. Pitt comes in averaging 30.3 PPG and allowing 28.1. Miami became eligible last weekend, but clearly the team will look to keep the foot on the gas in the final regular season home game. The Hurricanes average 31.5 PPG and they allow only 19.5. Note that Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 following a SU win, while Pittsburgh is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five after a SU win of more than 20 points. T.M. Prediction: 28-19 Miami. |
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11-24-18 | Wake Forest v. Duke UNDER 58.5 | Top | 59-7 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wake/Duke under (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I’m expecting a hard-fought, lower-scoring under between the set two heated ACC rivals. Wake Forest enters off a 34-13 home loss to Pittsburgh, while the Blue Devils come in off a 35-6 loss to Clemson on the road. Wake Forest averages 30.1 PPG and it allows 35.6. The Demon Deacons desperately need a win to become eligible. Duke is averaging 29.0 PPG and it’s allowing only 24.5. Note that the “under” is 6-1 the last seven in this series when the home team is a favorite between -7.5 and -12.5 points. T.M. Prediction: 30-21 Blue Devils. |
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11-24-18 | Georgia Tech v. Georgia -17 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 136 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Georgia (10* TRADE-MARK) The Yellow Jackets are off a tough 30-27 OT win over Virginia at home and I think they’ll suffer a letdown here. Georgia rolled to an easy 66-27 home win over UMass and I predict a similarly destruction here as well. Note that Georgia smashed GT 38-7 in this game last year. GT averages 36.9 PPG and it allows 27.5. At 10-1, the Bulldogs are back in the SEC title game, but they have one more opportunity for a “tune up” and I expect them to make the most of it. Georgia enters averaging 39.5 PPG and allowing only 16.8. Note as well that GT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. T.M. Prediction: 45-15 Bulldogs. |
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11-23-18 | Washington +3.5 v. Washington State | 28-15 | Win | 100 | 121 h 46 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington (8* BLOWOUT) I think many will be riding red hot Washington State in this one. But I think the pressure is on the home side here and I look for veteran Huskies’ QB Jake Browning to pull off the minor upset. But Browning beating WSU is no upset, as he’s already done it three times over his career, outscoring the Cougars 131-41 in the process. Washington State is rolling behind the Nation’s No. 1 offense, but the Huskies aren’t that far behind. Washington also has the upper hand defensively. Additionally note that the Huskies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road conference games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +5.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Huskies. |
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11-23-18 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia UNDER 85 | 59-56 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oklahoma/WVU under (8* SUPER TOTAL) These high-scoring and hungry sides can score a lot of points, with this total still staying below this sky-high total and that’s exactly what I expect to see happen. Oklahoma will be playing in the Big 12 game whether it wins or loses this game. The Sooners will want to win this one outright though to keep its playoff hopes alive. WVU needs to win this game outright and have Texas lose for its opportunity to play the Sooners next weekend. Clearly the last thing the Mountaineers can do is turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Sooners. It’s great from a situational stand point, but also note that WVU has in fact seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records. T.M. Prediction: 41-37 Sooners. |
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11-23-18 | Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: South Florida (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Outright upset? I’m not saying that. But the desperate Bulls will be out to play spoiler today at home and while USF may come up short, I definitely expect this one to be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. UCF won and covered against the Bearcats last weekend. The Bulls had a 17-0 lead at half time, but Temple scored 27 unanswered points in the second to steal the game. After four straight losses and with nothing to lose on seniors night though, I believe USF can put the pressure on the Knights today. Note that UCF is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with winning records, while USF is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. T.M. Prediction: 40-30 UCF. |
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11-23-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State +13.5 | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 112 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Kent State (8* MONEY-MAKER) EMU enters off a 27-7 home win over Akron in its latest action, while Kent Stat looks to bounce back off a 56-34 loss to Toledo at home last Thursday. The Eagles secured a bowl spot with the win over Akron prior to their “bye week.” Can anyone say natural letdown spot? Note that the Eagles have scored 27 or fewer points in three straight games. The Golden Flashes have struggled on both sides of the ball this year, but they won’t going down with a fight today. Note that Kent is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while EMU is just 11-24 ATS in its last 35 following a SU victory. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 EMU. |
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11-23-18 | Texas v. Kansas +16 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Kansas (10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR) This is a big game for the Longhorns, because if they win this one they’ll earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship game next week to face Oklahoma. I’m not calling for an outright, but the stage is set for Kansas to keep this one competitive and try to score the outright upset as spoiler. Texas’ QB Sam Ehlinger was injured last week and he’s listed as probable for this one. Ehlinger is likely going to play, but one has to wonder about his overall health for sure? Kansas lost 55-40 last week vs. Oklahoma and I think it can carry that offensive momentum over here. Note that Texas is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Kansas is 6-4 ATS this season as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 28-21 Texas. |
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11-22-18 | Colorado State +14.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 92 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado State (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Neither team can become bowl eligible with a victory today and with that sad fact weight heavily on the minds of the once mighty Falcons, I believe the Colorado State Rams can keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Colorado State is averaging 23.2 PPG on offense, while allowing 450 yards on defense. The Falcons had a 14 point fourth quarter lead against Wyoming last week and they’d go on to lose 35-27, putting an end to any hopes of a bowl berth once and for all. And after that tragic setback, I expect a very predictable letdown here. Note that Colorado State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games following a four games or more losing streak. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Falcons. |
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11-20-18 | Ball State +17 v. Miami-OH | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (10* MONEY-MAKER) Miami Ohio has won two in a row and with one more victory it will become “eligible,” but Ball State won’t be rolling over here as it tries to play spoiler. The Cardinals actually come in with momentum as well after breaking a three-game slide with a win over WMU last Tuesday. BSU QB Drew Pitt had 258 yards and three TD’s last week. The Redhawks prevailed last week over NIU, but it wasn’t pretty with the offense posting just 201 total yards. The pressure is on the Redhawks and note that they’re just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite. T.M. Prediction: 30-24 Miami Ohio. |
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11-17-18 | Arizona State v. Oregon -4 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -108 | 148 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oregon (10* TRADE-MARK) ASU is already heading to a bowl game and with a win today it’ll be the representative for the South Division in the Pac 12 Championship game. The Ducks though are 6-4 and with a couple more victories under their belt, they’d drastically improve their chances for a better bowl game. ASU has sen decent on the year, but note that it’s just 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS in the last five following a SU loss. Home field is the difference here, lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-20 Oregon. |
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11-17-18 | Indiana v. Michigan -27.5 | 20-31 | Loss | -108 | 141 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Michigan (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) No upsets here. I think Michigan keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. Indiana comes in off a 34-32 home win, while Michigan routed Rutgers 42-7. The Hoosiers are averaging 30 PPG and allowing 33. The Wolverines are averaging 37.2 PPG and they’re allowing only 12.9. Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last four at home and interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting more than 450 or more yards in its previous contest, while Indiana is a poor 0-5 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. The Hoosiers are allowing 38.8 PPG over their last five and I think the unit struggles again today against the Wolverines high-powered unit. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 44-10 Michigan. |
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11-17-18 | Liberty v. Auburn -28.5 | 0-53 | Win | 100 | 141 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Auburn (8* MONEY-MAKER) This is the first season in the FBS for the Liberty Flames and while they covered in a 45-24 loss to Virginia last Saturday, I think they’ll stumble here and lose horrible to Auburn, who looks to get back on track after a 27-10 road loss to No. 5 Georgia. Liberty is averaging 35.4 PPG and it’s allowing 39 per contest. QB Stephen Calvert has 2,677 passing yards and an 18/14 TD:INT. Auburn is averaging 26.5 PPG and it’s allowing just 18.3. QB Jarrett Stidham has 2,116 passing yards and a 10/4 TD:INT. Note that Auburn is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 50-12 Auburn. |
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11-17-18 | Iowa -15.5 v. Illinois | 63-0 | Win | 100 | 141 h 48 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Iowa (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Iowa came up short in a 14-10 home loss to Northwestern last week and I think it’ll take out its frustrations on the Illini, who enter off a horrible 54-35 road loss to Nebraska. Iowa destroyed Illinois 45-16 last year. Iowa enters averaging 28.5 PPG and it’s allowing 18.1. QB Nate Stanley had at least 250 passing yards six times this year with an 18/8 TD:INT. After three straight losses, I believe Stanley and company come up big today. The Illini have given up over 40 points in three of their last four games. Illinois averages 29.6 points and it’s allowing 38.6. Note that Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite and 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more SU losses, while Illinois is a horrible 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. T.M. Prediction: 40-20 Iowa. |
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11-17-18 | Northwestern v. Minnesota OVER 47 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Over Northwestern/Minnesota (10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE YEAR) Northwestern enters ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll after posting a spot in the Big Ten Championship last week. Meanwhile Minnesota comes in at 5-5 after a big win over Purdue at home last week, keeping its bow hopes alive. The Golden Gophers can’t leave anything to chance to become eligible, so with the home side pushing the pace, I’m absolutely expecting this one to soar over sooner, than later. Northwestern is averaging 23.6 PPG and it’s allowing 23. Minnesota is averaging 29.1 PPG and it’s allowing 29.6. While not normally a high-scoring team, note that Northwestern has in fact seen the total so over the number in ten of its last 14 on the road, while Minnesota has seen the total go over in five of its last seven against the conference. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Minnesota. |
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11-16-18 | Memphis -8 v. SMU | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 122 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Memphis (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Memphis smashed SMU 66-45 at home last year and I think we’re going to see a similar beatdown here as well. The Tigers can score with the best of them, averaging 531.9 YPG, the issue has been on defense, where it’s giving up 231.6 YPG through the air. That’s a concern facing SMU and QB Ben Hicks, who has 16 TD’s and four INT’s, but the Mustangs are also terrible defensively. Note that Memphis is already 5-3 ATS as a favorite this year and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season off a win against a conference rival, while SMU is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two or more SU wins. T.M. Prediction: 45-20 Memphis. |
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11-15-18 | Tulane v. Houston -10 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 97 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston (10* MONEY-MAKER) Tulane started the year by going 2-5, but it’s since won three in a row. Even if the Wave lose this one though, they still have one last shot at home against lowly Navy to become eligible. The Green Wave enter off a satisfying 24-18 home win over ECU. The unfortunate part was that they’d allow 450 yards to the Pirates, while also allowing ECU to convert on 21 third downs. The Wave are scoring 26.2 PPG and they’re allowing 25.8. Houston is allowing 34.4 PPG, but the offense is scoring 47.8 PPG. I have a hard time seeing Tulane keeping pace with the Cougars on the road. Note as well that Houston is already 2-0 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. T.M. Prediction: 41-27 Houston. |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo v. Ohio +1.5 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ohio (10* GAME OF WEEK) I think Buffalo stumbles here after five straight victories. Ohio though will be the “hungrier” team at home and after its three-game unbeaten streak was snapped to Miami Ohio this past weekend. Buffalo’s never been 9-1 before. Ohio will be looking to play spoiler today as Buffalo will win the MAC East Championship for a second straight year with a win today. There’s no way the Bobcats want the Bulls to celebrate that feat on their home field. Note as well that Ohios is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records. T.M. Prediction: 35-30 Ohio. |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Western Michigan (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) WMU will be eager to get back on track here after a horrible 59-14 home loss to Ohio, while Ball State enters off a 45-13 loss to Toledo. The Broncos have to be feeling confident here though as they hammered the Cardinals 55-3 last year. WMU lost QB Jon Wassink to injury and since then its struggled. But with a couple of games to adjust, I think the Broncos are still the much better overall team here. Note as well that Ball State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while the road team is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 in this series. Ball State is also without its starting QB Riley Neal. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 WMU. |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College UNDER 57 | Top | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clemson/BC under (10* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR) Clemson’s undefeated and if it wants to stay that way, it’ll want to control the tempo of this one and dictate what will happen against the surging Eagles. The Tigers most recently smashed Louisville 77-16 at home, while BC will look to avoid a letdown here after its 31-21 road upset victory over VT. Clemson is averaging 47.8 PPG and it’s allowing only 13.3. BC is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s allowing 24.1. I’ll point out though that Clemson has seen the total go “under” in 16 of its last 28 after two or more SU wins, while BC has seen the total go under in both games it’s played in this season as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 45-10 Clemson. |
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11-10-18 | LSU -14 v. Arkansas | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LSU (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) Analysis posted at least 8 hours before game time. T.M. Prediction: (FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY) |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -109 | 142 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Florida (10* ACC SIDE OF THE YEAR) Miami comes in desperate after three straight losses, most recently an upset to Duke. Georgia Tech on the other hand comes in complacent after winning four of its last five. The Hurricanes fast start is a thing of the past and QB issues has been the main problem. Malik Rosier and N’Kosi Perry will both be utilized today as they try to get things turned around. Georgia Tech has gotten improved play of late, but I’ll point out that it’s still just 1-3 ATS at home this year and only 3-4 ATS as a favorite. T.M. Prediction: 30-24 Miami. |
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11-10-18 | Liberty +24 v. Virginia | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 138 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Liberty (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Virginia broke a three-game win streak with a loss to Pittsburgh and I think it’ll get caught a little flat-footed here as well. I’m of course not calling for an outright upset, I think Liberty, who is at No. 24 ranked Auburn next week, will keep this one interesting deep into the second half. The Flames are averaging 36.9 PPG and they’re allowing 38.3. The Cavs are averaging only 26.6 PPG and they’re allowing 19.2. Note though that Virginia is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after posting less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game, while Liberty is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Cavaliers. |
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11-10-18 | Maryland +3 v. Indiana | 32-34 | Win | 100 | 135 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Maryland (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Maryland can punch its ticket to eligibility with a win today against 4-5 Indiana. The Terps will be hungry to get back into the winners circle after last week’s 24-3 home loss to MSU. A date against the lowly Hoosiers, who come in having lost four straight and who haven’t played since a 38-31 loss to Minnesota on October 26th, offer the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The Terps average 221.8 rushing yards per game and 125 passing yards, while on defense they are allowing 164.8 rushing and 175 passing yards. Indiana is allowing 399.6 YPG overall and 237.6 through the air. Note that the Hoosiers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss, while Maryland is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. T.M. Prediction: 28-27 Marland. |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Fresno State (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Fresno State is 8-1 overall and it can ill afford to take the foot off the gas at this point. Not with the hopes of reaching the MWC title game. The Bulldogs have a slim one-game lead over the Aztecs in the West Division race and they survived a potential trap game last week with a resounding 48-3 destruction of UNLV on the road. Boise State sits a game back of Utah State for the Mountain Division. The Broncos have won four straight and look poised for a letdown here facing the step up in competition. Most recently the Broncos beat BYU 21-16. Note that Boise State is in fact just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 at home though and just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 20 points in its last game, while Fresno State is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 on the road. T.M. Prediction: 34-20 Fresno State. |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest +16 v. NC State | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 94 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wake Forest (10* TRADE-MARK) I don’t see much a drop off between Wake Forest No. 1 Sam Hartman and his back-up. It’s next man up in the College Football World and Wake Forest comes in desperate for a victory to become eligible. The Wolfpack had lost two in a row before last weekend’s victory, so a return to complacency could indeed be in order here. Note as well that NC State is a poor 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range and already 0-2 ATS this season off a win against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 37-33 NC State. |
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11-07-18 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -2.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Northern Illinois (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Both teams are already bowl eligible, meaning that home field advantage can’t be overlooked here in my opinion. Toledo got its sixth win last week against Ball State 45-13, while the Huskies beat Akron 36-26. Toledo is averaging 41.2 PPG and allowing 30.8, while NIU is averaging 19.2 PPG and allowing 21.7. Note though that Toledo is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 when playing against teams with winning records, while NIU is still 7-2 ATS in its last nine against the conference. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 NIU. |
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11-06-18 | Kent State v. Buffalo UNDER 41 | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Under Kent/Buffalo (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Last year Buffalo beat Kent State 27-13 on the road. I’m expecting an even lower-scoring win for the Bulls this season. Kent is averaging only 24.3 PPG and it’s allowing 34.2. QB Woody Barrett had two TD passes last week, but he’s been consistently inconsistent all year and I think he’ll predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. The Bulls are averaging 34.9 PPG and allowing only 23.4. While they gave up 41 points to Miami Ohio last weekend, I think they’ll play much better defensively this week as they look to control the tempo of this one from the outset. Note that Kent’s already seen the total go under in all three games it’s played in this season as well as an underdog in the 10.5 to 22 points range. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 27-10 Buffalo. |
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11-03-18 | Duke +8 v. Miami-FL | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 120 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Duke (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Duke comes in off a 54-45 road loss to Pitt, while Miami dropped its second in a row in a 27-14 setback to BC last Friday night. Note that this is a revenge scenario for the Blue Devils, who have lost four straight in the series, including a 31-6 setback on the road last September 29th. Duke is averaging 31.4 PPG and it’s allowing only 23.5. Miami is averaging 34.5 PPG and it’s allowing only 19.2. The Hurricanes though have regressed on both sides of the ball over the last two games and I think the Blue Devils will have their opportunities. Note as well that Duke is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog, while Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 27-23 Miami Florida. |
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11-03-18 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina +14.5 | 23-7 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 20 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Coastal Carolina (8* MONEY-MAKER) App State had won five in a row and made it into the AP Top 25 before then predictably stumbling at Georgia Southern last week. Coastal Carolina won’t be going down without a fight and it comes in with momentum with victories over UMass and Georgia State. The Mountaineers looked terrible on both sides of the ball in last week’s 34-14 setback. Also note that starting QB Zac Thomas left early in the first quarter with a concussion. Coastal Carolina’ QB Fred Payton and company have scored at least 20 points n each of their last seven contests after a 37-34 win over Georgia State last week and he’ll clearly be given the green light to fire down field again today as well. Note that App State is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 against the conference, while the Chanticleers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 35-27 App State. |
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11-03-18 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech +2.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -105 | 117 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Virginia Tech (10* ACC GAME OF MONTH) The Eagles are 6-2 and 3-1 in the ACC and they sit just 1.5 games behind No. 2 Clemson in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. BC hosts Clemson next weekend and I think it gets caught looking ahead. And while the Eagles have been fantastic at home, they’ve lost their last two away from friendly confines. An upset 27-14 win over Miami on October 26th has BC primed for a predictable letdown. VT is 4-3 overall and 3-1 in the Coastal division, one of three one loss teams with Virginia and Pittsburgh. Note as well that BC is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU victories, while VT is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 VT. |
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11-03-18 | Michigan State v. Maryland +2.5 | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 22 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Maryland (9* MONEY-MAKER) Maryland is 5-3 and searching a small upset here to punch its way into eligibility. After falling to Michigan, MSU bounced back with a 23-13 home win over Purdue, which was still in shock ater knocking off Ohio State on the road. QB Rocky Lombardi had 318 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. The defense looked sharp in holding Purdue to 339 yards overall, but I think it’ll struggle to contain a Terps offense which has been sharp at home, knocking off Minnesota (42-13), Illinois (63-33) and Rutgers (34-7). Last week the Terps posted 712 yards overall and 431 rushing yards against the Illini, with QB Kasim Hill going for 265 yards and three TD’s. Note that MSU is just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite, while Maryland is already 3-1 ATS at home this year. T.M. Prediction: 26-21 Maryland. |
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11-03-18 | Memphis v. East Carolina +13 | Top | 59-41 | Loss | -108 | 113 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: East Carolina (10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR) The Tigers come in reeling after consecutive losses, including giving up 65 points in a loss to Missouri last Saturday. The Tigers’ defense has been exposed and I think the hungry Pirates can keep it interesting. ECU enters off a 37-10 loss to the UCF. Memphis lost to the Golden Knights as well. Last week Memphis’ QB Brady White had just 208 yards on 15 of 37 passing with two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game has been strong, but ECU won’t be going down without a fight today. ECU started Holton Ahlers last week and he had 406 yards passing, one TD and an INT. He also rushed for 69 yards. Ahlers been given the keys to the ship and he’s going to have his opportunities today against the terrible Tigers’ defense. Note as well that Mempis is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 on the road (including 0-3 ATS this season), while ECU is already 3-1 ATS this year as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. T.M. Prediction: 35-31 Memphis. |
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11-02-18 | Colorado v. Arizona -4 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona (8*) Colorado comes in off a disheartening 41-34 OT loss to Oregon State at home and I believe it’ll stumble here in this difficult venue as well. Arizona is now trending in the opposite direction though, off a big 44-15 win at home over No. 19 Oregon last weekend. Colorado is averaging 32 PPG and allowing 23.9. Arizona is averaging 26.3 PPG and allowing 26.4. Note as well that the Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight at home, while the Buffaloes are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine after posting more than 280 yards in their previous outing. T.M. Prediction: 35-21 Wildcats. |
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11-02-18 | Western Kentucky +14 v. Middle Tennessee State | 10-29 | Loss | -115 | 121 h 48 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: WKU (8*) WKU has been a disaster so far this year, its lone win coming against Ball State. MTSU has won two in a row, but I think the home side is going to get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. WKU is averaging only 19.8 PPG, but the defense has been decent in conceding 30. MTSU QB Brent Stockstill looked decent last week, but note that the Blue Raiders are still 0-4 ATS in their last four after two or more consecutive SU victories. No outright victory here, but a very solid back door cover. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-24 Blue Raiders. |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 120 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh (8*) The Cavs have won three straight and while they may ultimately win their fourth in a row, I don’t expect the Panthers to go down without a fight. Pitt comes in off a big 54-45 win over Duke last weekend as V’Lique Carter would explode for 137 yards and two TD’s: “He’s a player on offense right now,” head coach Pat Narduzzi assured. “That’s where he’ll stay right now…. “He’s fast. Obviously he’ll get a few more carries [against Virginia].” The Cavs suffocating defense has led the charge during the recent surge, but I think they’ll have their hands full today with this dynamic Panthers’ offense which comes in on top form. Not as well that Pittsburgh is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while UVA is still just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 26-23 Virginia |
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11-01-18 | Ohio v. Western Michigan OVER 65 | Top | 59-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ohio/WMU over (10* MAC O/U BEST OF THE BEST) This is a big game for both teams. Ohio comes in on fire on both ends of the field and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. WMU is though is averaging 35 PPG, while allowing 30.9. Ohio’s last two victories have come by a combined 73 points. Overall the Bobcats are averaging 38.3 PPG and allowing 28.9. Note that WMU has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 15 at home and in three of its last four following a loss. T.M. Prediction: 37-34 Ohio. |
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10-31-18 | Ball State +14 v. Toledo | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Toledo had lost two in a row before a big upset win over WMU last Thursday. Ball State has plenty of issues and it enters off a back-to-back wins over EMU and Ohio. Ball State in fact lost 52-14 to the Bobcats last week. Starting QB Riley Neal was injured early though and backup Drew Plitt struggled in his time. However, with a week off to prepare, Plitt will have his opportunities against this “on again, off again” Toledo defense in my opinion. Note that Toledo starting QB Mitch Guadagni suffered an injury in last week’s rout of WMU as well. That means that Eli Peters is now the starting QB and he’s had mixed results. Note as well that Ball State is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range, while Toledo is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 6-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 35-28 Toledo. |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | Top | 42-51 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo (10* MONEY-MAKER) Miami Ohio enters off a tough 31-30 double OT setback to Army, while the Bulls posted a convincing 31-17 road victory over Toledo. Note that this is a revenge game for Buffalo after it fell 24-14 on the road in this series last year. Miami is averaging 26.2 PPG and allowing 24.9. The Bulls are averaging 32.9 PPG and allowing only 21.1. The Redhawks have been playing better defensively of late, but I think they’ll take a step back in this difficult road venue. Note as well that Miami Ohio is just 1-2 ATS in its last three off its bye week, while Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points, this one has “rout” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 30-21 Buffalo. |
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10-27-18 | Hawaii +23.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 20-50 | Loss | -106 | 147 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hawaii (10* TRADE-MARK) Hawaii enters off a 40-22 loss to Nevada, while Fresno State comes in off a 38-7 road victory over New Mexico. Fresno State posted the 31-21 road win in Hawaii last year and I predict a similar point discrepancy here as well once it’s all said and done. So far Hawaii is averaging 34.9 PPG and allowing 32.9. Fresno State is averaging 38 PPG and allowing only 12.6. But note that the Bulldogs are just 1-2 ATS in their last three as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range, while Hawaii is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the same points range. No outright, but expect a tight battle. Play on Hawaii. T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Fresno State. |
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10-27-18 | NC State v. Syracuse -1 | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 144 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Syracuse (8* MONEY-MAKER!) NC State comes in off a deflating 41-7 loss to Clemson, while Syracuse comes in off a confidence-building 40-37 double OT victory over UNC. Syracuse plays with revenge here as well after NC State posted a 33-25 home win in the series last year. Overall NC State is averaging 28.7 PPG and allowing 20.8. The Orange have scored at least 30 points in six of their seven games and they’re allowing an average of 26.9 PPG. Note as well that Syracuse is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival, while NC State is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 following a conference game, including 0-2 ATS this season. T.M. Prediction: 37-30 Orange. |
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10-27-18 | Duke -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | 45-54 | Loss | -106 | 140 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Duke (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) With a win Duke will become bowl eligible. The Panthers present the perfect opponent to try and attain that as they’re just 3-4, most recently coming off a loss to Notre Dame. Duke only managed 58 rushing yards in last week’s loss, but that was against Virginia, one of the best defenses in the nation. The Panthers are struggling across the board as well, especially offensively, last in yard per attempt in the country at just 5.9. QB Kenny Pickett has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game this year either. Note as well that Duke is already 3-0 ATS on the road this year, while Pittsburgh is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 at home. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Blue Devils. |
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10-27-18 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +6 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 137 h 59 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Northwestern (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Wisconsin comes in off a blowout win over Illinois and I think it’ll be caught a little flat-footed against a Northwestern team desperate for a victory. The Badgers average 33 PPG, but QB Alex Hornibrook looked pretty average in last week’s win, finishing 13 of 22 for 188 yards, three TD’s, but also two INT’s. Northwestern is averaging just 24.3 PPG, but it’s also allowing only 24.6 PPG. RB Isaiah owed had 108 yards and two TD’s in last week’s 18-16 win over Rutgers. Note though that Wisconsin is already 0-2 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival, while Northwestern is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU victories. T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Badgers. |
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10-27-18 | Wake Forest +1.5 v. Louisville | Top | 56-35 | Win | 100 | 137 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wake Forest (10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR) The Demon Deacons are hungry to get back on track here after losing four of their last five, while Louisville enters on a four-game slide as well after falling to BC this past weekend. Wake Forest is averaging 30.1 PPG and it’s allowing 37.0. Louisville is averaging just 20.4 PPG while allowing 33.4. Two bottom feeders, but Wake has the much more coherent offense at this point. Also note that the Cardinals are a terrible 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games, while Wake Forest is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight against teams with a losing record. T.M. Prediction: 37-30 Wake Forest. |
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10-26-18 | Wyoming +2.5 v. Colorado State | 34-21 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Wyoming (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) It’s a big game for both teams despite overall disappointing campaigns for each to this point. But each stands with five total wins, meaning that one more and it’ll become “eligible.” In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever school has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. Wyoming’s offense has been horrible this year, but the Cowboys have been stout defensively. Last week Wyoming QB Sean Chamber was decent, running for 100 yards on 19 attempts. Colorado State has given up 37.8 PPG this season and the offense is completely one-dimensional as well. I have a hard time seeing the Rams mustering much of an offensive attack tonight. I think Wyoming wins outright. T.M. Prediction: 26-21 Wyoming. |
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +4 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston College (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Hurricanes come in flustered after their stunning loss to Virginia and I think the hungry Eagles will make the most of this opportunity. Last week Miami Florida fell flat in a 16-13 road loss to the Cavaliers, while BC smashed Louisville 38-20. Miami is making a permanent shift at QB now after last week’s disaster, as N’Kosi Perry is gone and senior Malik Rosier is back running the show. Probably a good move overall, but the uncertainty at this point of the season at the most important position isn’t a good thing. Miami’s vaunted defense is going to have its hands full today as well trying to slow down Eagles’ RB Ben Glines, who had 219 rushing yards and two TD’s last weekend. Note that the Hurricanes are just 7-12 ATS in their last 19 following a conference contest, while BC is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in the same position. I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Miami Florida. |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State -7.5 v. Georgia Southern | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 23 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Appalachian State (8*) Both teams have been hot, but I think the combination of App State’s offense and defense will be just too much for the Eagles to handle tonight. App State has scored at least 35 points in every game prior to its win this last weekend over the Ragin Cajun, while also holding four straight opponents previous to Arkansas State to just single digits in scoring. Georgia Southern is fifth in the country in rushing with 276.6 per contest, but overall the offense is averaging a woeful 352.4 YPG. That’s not going to cut it against the high-flying Mountaineers this weekend. Note that the Eagles are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with winning road records, while App State is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road. T.M. Prediction: 35-23 Mountaineers. |
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10-25-18 | Toledo +5 v. Western Michigan | 51-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toledo (8*) Toledo looks to get back on track after a 31-17 home loss to Buffalo, while WMU enters off a 35-10 road win over CMU in its previous action. The Rockets are averaging 39.3 PPG and they’re allowing 34.3. QB Eli ethers has a 6/2 TD:INT, while Michell Guadagni has an 11/3 TD:INT. WMU is averaging 36.4 PPG and it’s allowing 28.4. QB Jon Wassink has been decent with a 16/6 TD:INT. I’ll point out though that the Broncos are just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 off a win against a conference rival and only 7-8 ATS In their last 15 at home. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 37-31 Rockets. |
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10-25-18 | Ball State +11 v. Ohio | 14-52 | Loss | -123 | 97 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (8*) Ball State is 2-2 after losing to EMU 42-20 most recently, while Ohio is 2-1 in the MAC after destroying Bowling Green 49-14 in its most recent action. The Cardinals are averaging 25 PPG and they’re ranked 82nd in the country on the defensive side. Ball State QB Riley Neal has 1,841 passing yards and a decent 10:4 TD/INT. Ohio is averaging 36.3 PPG and it’s allowing 31. QB Nathan Rourke had four TD passes against the lowly Green Falcons last week, but note that Ohio is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the same range. I’m expecting a much tighter battle than what this spread would suggest, so grab the points! T.M. Prediction: 34-30 Ohio. |
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10-23-18 | Troy v. South Alabama +11 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -100 | 50 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: South Alabama (10* MONEY-MAKER) Troy has been pretty good, it’s averaging 33.7 PPG and it’s allowing only 24.6. Conversely South Alabama is averaging 25.7 PPG and allowing 39.3. But the Trojans’ offense has suffered a major blow as starting QB Kaleb Barker has been lost for the season to injury. The Trojans come in off a surprising 22-16 road loss to Liberty in which backup QB Sawyer Smith had 135 passing yards with one TD and one INT. Jaguars’ QB Evan Orth has 1,366 passing yards an a decent 7:3 TD/INT. Note as well that Troy is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after scoring 17 points or less in its previous contest. No outright, but closer than expected. T.M. Prediction: 30-24 Troy. |
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10-20-18 | Central Florida v. East Carolina +21 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -108 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: East Carolina (10* GAME OF MONTH) UCF is 5-0, most recently holding on for a tight 31-30 win over Memphis. ECU is just 1-3 in its last four after having its ass handed to it by Houston last weekend. The Pirates are desperate and I don’t think they’ll go down this weekend without a fight. I’m not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a a much tighter battle than what this large spread would suggest. The Knights are scoring a lot of points, but I think they get caught “looking past” their opponent tonight. Note that ECU starts a new QB in Holton Ahlers, who led ECU to a pair of fourth-quarter TD’s, finishing 137 yards, one TD and no INT. Note that ECU is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while UCF is already 0-2 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 40-25 UCF. |
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10-20-18 | Penn State -14 v. Indiana | 33-28 | Loss | -109 | 124 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Penn State (8*) Penn State will be eager to get back on track here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 21-17 setback to Michigan State on Saturday. Indiana also dropped its second straight in a 42-16 setback at home to Iowa. Penn State comes in averaging 44.2 PPG and allowing only 21. QB Trace McSorley has a sharp 11:2 TD/INT. Indiana averages only 26.1 PPG and it allows 28.1. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. The Hoosiers allowed Iowa QB Nathan Stanley to throw for 320 yards and six TD’s. Note that Indiana is 0-7 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss and 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 40 points. T.M. Prediction: 40-21 Nittany Lions. |
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10-20-18 | Houston -12.5 v. Navy | 49-36 | Win | 100 | 124 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Houston (8*) Houston comes in on top form, having won three straight, most recently a convincing 42-20 win over ECU on the road last Saturday. Navy on the other hand has zero momentum, it dropped its third in a row in a 24-17 home loss to Temple last weekend. Houston is averaging 48.7 PPG (ranked 3rd) and allowing only 28. QB D’Eriq King has 1,571 passing yards to go along with 20 TD’s, three INT’s and 225 rushing yards and eight more TD’s on the ground. The Mids are averaging only 28 PPG and they’re allowing 31.8. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Note as well that Navy is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after posting more than 170 passing yards in its previous game, while Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a losing home record. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 41-20 Houston. |
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10-20-18 | UL-Lafayette +24 v. Appalachian State | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 124 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Lafayette (8*) The Ragin’ Cajuns broke a three-game slide with a win over New Mexico State and they’re going to have their hands full here with an App State team which hasn’t lost since an Opening Day setback to Penn State. The Mountaineers are averaging 48.8 PPG, but I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent today. Lafayette’ QB Andre Nunez finished with 315 passing yards and five TD’s last week and I think the senior QB carries that momentum over here. Note though that Lafayette is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 on the road and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records, while App State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. T.M. Prediction: 40-30 App State. |
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10-20-18 | North Carolina v. Syracuse -10.5 | Top | 37-40 | Loss | -102 | 121 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Syracuse (10* BLOWOUT GAME OF YEAR) The Tar Heels come in off a 22-19 loss to Virginia Tech, while Syracuse comes in focused and rested off its bye week. Previous to that the Orange fell 44-37 in OT at Pittsburgh. UNC though is averaging only 20.6 PPG, while allowing 33.8. QB Nathan Elliot has underwhelmed with 920 yards passing and a poor 4:4 TD/INT. The Orange average 43 PPG and they allow only 25.2. QB Eric Dungey has 1,208 yards with ten TD’s and four INT’s. Note that Syracuse is 3-0-1 ATS In its last four games on field turf, while the Tar Heels are just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position. T.M. Prediction: 45-25 Orange. |
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10-19-18 | Colorado State v. Boise State -23 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 124 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boise State (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Colorado State comes in off a 20-17 home win over New Mexico, while Boise State posted a 31-27 road victory over Nevada. The Rams are averaging only 24.6 PPG still, while allowing 35.1. Their passing game is ranked 20th in the country, but the run game has been anemic. Boise State is averaging 36.2 PPG and it’s allowing only 21.8. QB Brett Rypien had 299 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s victory. Note that Colorado State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six though after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Boise State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. T.M. Prediction: 50-13 Boise State. |
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10-18-18 | Stanford v. Arizona State +3 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 3 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona State (10* GAME OF WEEK) Stanford’s lost two straight. RB Bryce love is expected back in the line-up after missing the last two games, but one has to wonder how the Cardinal’ star RB’s form is at the moment? Note that Stanford has already been held to 21 points or fewer on three occasions already this year. ASU also enters off its bye, timely as QB Manny Wilkins suffered a minor injury in the 28-21 loss to Colorado: “I got a little rest; I was really eager (to be back),” Wilkins assured. “When you don’t play for a week, and I’m in my senior season…. I got here [Sunday] morning and I was smiling. It was like I had a mini-offseason. I’m ready to get back in here and finish this thing off with my guys.” Note that ASU is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 7-3 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records, while Stanford is interestingly 0-3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 ASU. |
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10-13-18 | Wyoming +19.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wyoming (10* MWC GAME OF YEAR) Wyoming comes in focused and hungry here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 17-13 road setback to a much improved Hawaii team last weekend. Fresno State comes in complacent after its third straight win, most recently edging Nevada 21-3 on the road last Saturday. Last year’s match-up was battle as well, with the Bulldogs holding on for the 13-7 win. These teams are completely mismatched on paper, but note that Wyoming is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. I look for the Bulldogs to go up early and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Fresno State. |
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10-13-18 | Baylor +17 v. Texas | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 141 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baylor (8*) I think Texas takes a step back here and comes in a bit flat after five straight wins. The Longhorns most recently needed a last second nail-bitter to beat Oklahoma this past weekend. Baylor most recently got the better of K-State 37-34 this past weekend: “I told our guys at halftime that we statistically dominated,” Bears’ head coach Matt Rhule assessed afterwards. “We just weren’t able to put all the points on the board that we probably would like to. But I thought our guys didn’t panic. We found a way to fight down the stretch and found a way to win in the fourth quarter.” “We were pretty bad offensively a lot of the game,” Brewer admitted. “We were by no means perfect. But when it mattered the most we battled it out. Good teams do that–find a way. And we found a way in the end. The more you can get used to that and build your confidence up late in the game in the fourth quarter, I think it’s really important for the team.” As mentioned off the top, after their massive 48-45 win over Oklahoma, I think Texas takes a predictable step back here (note that the Longhorns are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven after two or more consecutive SU wins and just 1-3 ATS in their last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.) T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Horns. |
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10-13-18 | Temple v. Navy +4.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -106 | 141 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Navy (8*) Temple comes in a tiny bit complacent here after starting league play 2-0, most recently demolishing ECU 49-6 this past weekend. It’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Mids though after they were smashed 35-7 at Air Force last weekend. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for Navy after the Owls upset the Midshipmen 34-26 as a 6.5 point favorite last year. Tample’s weakness on defense is against the run as well, allowing 165.7 YPG, which clearly doesn’t bode well facing Navy’s option attack. Navy head coach Ken Niumatololo believes his team will be better on both sides of the ball this week: “I thought we were playing well on defense, but we just got worn down because we couldn’t get anything going offensively,” Niumatalolo said about last week’s loss. “Defensively, our guys just ran out of gas because they were out on the field so much. We’re not going to put that game on the defense. We have to play better on offense.” The Owl have been an ATS covering machine the last two seasons, but the chance for a “letdown” here remains. Also note that Navy is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home and 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Navy. |
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10-13-18 | Washington v. Oregon +3.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 141 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oregon (8*) Washington comes to town off a much tougher than expected 31-24 road win over UCLA last weekend and now the Huskies are being asked to cover another spread as the favorite on the road this Saturday. The Ducks will look to take advantage and to build off their 42-24 road win over Cal two weeks ago. Note as well that this is a “revenge” game after the Huskies demolished Oregon 38-3 last year. Washington’s offense isn’t as explosive this season as it was last, ranked 45th in the country with an average of 442.7 YPG. The Huskies’ defense took a step back as well a last week, allowing 422 total yards to a week Bruins team. Note as well that Washington is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five following its bye week. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Ducks. |
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10-13-18 | Iowa v. Indiana +6 | Top | 42-16 | Loss | -106 | 138 h 8 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indiana (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Iowa comes in complacent here in my opinion after its first conference win of the year lats week against Minnesota. Indiana has struggled to open conference play though and it’ll be eager to atone itself after getting killed by Ohio State last weekend. The Hawkeyes enter off the 48-31 upset win over Minnesota. Note though that Iowa has now allowed 59 points over its last two games. Indiana opened the season 3-0, but it’s since gone 1-2 in Conference action, with its lone victory coming over Rutgers. However, the Hoosiers are still very much in contention for a bowl spot and I expect the home side to leave everything on the field of play this afternoon. One player to keep your eyes one for the Buckeyes is RB Stevie Scott, who leads the team with 528 yards and five TD’s on the ground. Additionally note that Iowa is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Indiana is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against teams with winning records. T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Hoosiers. |
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10-12-18 | Air Force +9 v. San Diego State | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 124 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Air Force (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Outright upset? The books certainly don’t want us to think that. However, I do indeed think you should “sprinkle a little” on the money line here as well as I look for the hungry Air Force Falcons to keep this one competitive against the complacent Aztecs. Air Force broke a three-game slide with an impressive 35-7 destruction of Navy at home last Saturday, while SDSU won its fourth straight in a 19-13 upset victory over Boise State on the blue turf of Boise Stadium last weekend. Can anyone say “letdown/trap” game?! Note as well that to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as note that SDSu has won seven straight in the series, including a 28-24 victory on the road last September 23rd. Air Force is averaging 31.4 PPG and it’s allowing 22. SDSU is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 19.8. Additionally note that the Aztecs are 0-2 ATS in their last two as a home fav in the 10.5 to 14 points range. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Aztecs. |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU -8.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: TCU (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) TCU smashed Texas Tech 27-3 last year and I believe the Horned Frogs will have their way with the Red Raiders this season as well. Texas Tech comes to town dejected off a 42-34 home loss to WVU, while TCU comes in confident after it’s tougher than expected 17-14 home win over Iowa State in its latest action two weeks ago. Off its bye and with the extra time off to prepare, I’m absolutely expecting a lop-sided destruction once it’s all said and done. TT also enters off its bye week after getting destroyed by the Mountaineers, allowing 489 yards of offense, including 370 through the air. Overall the Red Raiders allow 31 PPG while averaging 48.4 PPG. The Horned Frogs though are giving up just 20.8 PPG, while averaging 31.6. QB Shawn Robinson had 182 yards and two TD’s in the win over Iowa State two weeks ago. Note as well that TCU is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 following its bye week, while Texas Tech is interestingly just 1-5 ATS in its last six games on grass. T.M. Prediction: 40-23 Horned Frogs. |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +7 | Top | 35-9 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arkansas State (10* MONEY-MAKER). Appalachian State is putting up some ridiculous numbers on both sides of the ball right now, but I think it’ll have its hands full tonight against this hungry Red Wolves team, which I do indeed believe has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. The Mountaineers are averaging 51.8 PPG and allowing only 17. Last week App State hammered South Alabama 52-7. The competition level has definitely skewed the Mountaineers numbers and I think some major “correction” is in store here. And that’s because the Red Wolves are allowing a decent 29.2 PPG on average. Arkansas State comes in off a tough 28-21 loss to Georgia Southern. QB Justice Hansen is a difference maker for sure though in my opinion, as he come sin sporting an elite 11/2 TD:INT. Note as well that App State is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after accumulating more than 450 total yards of offense in its previous game, while the Red Wolves are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five against schools with winning records. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 31-27 App State. |
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10-06-18 | California +1.5 v. Arizona | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: California (10* TRADE-MARK) Arizona’ QB Khalil Tate was a dual threat QB last year and he pretty much dominated, but this season he’s been turned into a pocket passer and to this point, he’s struggled under the new system. So far he’s passed for under 250 yards in three of his first five games and he’s not rushed for over 38 yards in any of his starts this year, one season after posting 1,411 yards on the ground. The Golden Bears will look to take advantage and to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the year in a 42-24 home setback to No. 19 Oregon. Cal averages 28.5 PPG and it allows 25. Arizona is averaging 31.6 PPG and allowing 28.4. Note as well that the Wildcats are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous contest, while the Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams with losing records. I think Tate continues to struggle against Cal’s above average defense. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Cal. |
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10-06-18 | Auburn v. Mississippi State +3.5 | Top | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 147 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mississippi State (10* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR). Auburn enters off a 24-13 win over Southern Miss last week, while Mississippi State will be desperate to get back to its winning ways after a tight 13-6 loss to Florida in its last outing. Note that this is a big time revenge game as well for the home side after it was embarrassed 49-10 in this matchup on the road last year. Auburn got the win last time out, but QB Jarrett Stidham completed just 57 percent of his passes. So far he has a 5/2 TD:INT. Overall the Tigers are averaging 32.6 points and allowing 12.6. Mississippi State is averaging 32.6 PPG and it’s allowing 13.4. QB Nick Fitzgerald had just 98 passing yards last week against a tough Florida defense. Overall he has 640 passing yards and a 4:2 TD/INT. Note though that Mississippi State is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 at home against teams with winning road records, while Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory. In a game that I expect to come down to the wire, I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Mississippi State. |
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10-06-18 | Arizona State +3 v. Colorado | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 143 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona State (8* SIT. BLOWOUT) Colorado hasn’t started 5-0 in 20 years and I think that trend continues here. The Buffaloes come in off a 38-16 win over UCLA. ASU is 3-2 after destroying Oregon State 42-24 at home last Saturday. RB Eno Benjamin finished with a school-record 312 rushing yards in that one and I have a hard time seeing Colorado slowing down the dynamic back here either. “It was a great feeling,” Benjamin assessed afterwards. “Honestly we had a game plan and we knew we were going to run the ball on them. We went through practice and we executed. If you saw the way we practiced this week you would have known it was going to happen and it’s just a testament to our offensive line.” ASU’s achilles heel has been its play on the road, but I think that trend finally comes to an end here. Colorado finally broke into the AP Top 25 after scoring at least 33 points in all four victories, while limiting opponents to just 195.8 passing yards. The Sun Devils catch a break as their offense is so run oriented. Note as well that ASU is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records, while Colorado is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records. I think the Buffs have a letdown finally. T.M. Prediction: 35-30 Sun Devils. |
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10-06-18 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State +5 | 24-16 | Loss | -120 | 142 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (8* BLOWOUT) I think NIU comes in a tiny bit complacent here after it’s 2-0 start in the West Division of the MAC. The Huskies enter off an exhausting 26-23 Triple OT win over EMU and I look for Ball State, who ended a three-game skid by downing Kent State last week. NIU holds teams to just 348.6 YPG so far, but its offense ranks near the bottom of the nation in most statistical categories. Ball State lost to heavyweights Notre Dame and Indiana and while it lost to WKU at home, the Cardinals finally bounced back with a big 52-24 win over Kent State last week, the offense rolling up 606 yards. NIU may have won nine straight in this series, but I think it finally comes up short here. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Ball State. |
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10-06-18 | East Carolina +13 v. Temple | 6-49 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: East Carolina (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) East Carolina enters off a confidence building 37-35 win over ODU. The ECU Pirates are averaging 293.2 YPG passing, good for 24th nationally. ECU QB Reid Herring already has 1,161 yards. Temple is getting treaty play from RB Ryquell Armstead, but overall the offense has stalled, averaging just 357.4 YPG. Note that ECU is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. Temple has issues on both sides of the ball. Expect a competitive battle here. T.M. Prediction: 26-25 Temple. |
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10-05-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Marshall -7.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Marshall (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Middle Tennessee State was destroyed by Georgia and then it bounced back last week with a come-from-behind win over FAU for the 25-24 victory. MTSU’s numbers are likely better than what they’d indicate considering the competition (averages 25 PPG and allows 36.2) I still think the Blue Raiders are in over their heads here. Marshall is averaging only 26.8 PPG this year, but it’s allowing just 24.5. Most of the damage is done through the air by QB Isaiah Green with an average of 277 YPC. Additionally note that MTSU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a win against a conference rival. I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout! T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Herd. |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa +15.5 v. Houston | Top | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 100 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tulsa (10* GAME OF WEEK). Tulsa comes in off a 31-17 loss to a pretty good Temple team on the road. Am I predicting an outright upset here? Of course not. I do think that the Golden Hurricane though can catch the high-powered Cougars “looking past” to its more difficult upcoming road games at ECU, Navy and then at home against UCF. It’s not going to get any easier unfortunately for Tulsa though, with a game at home against 4-0 USF next weekend. I think Tulsa though comes in focused as its offense takes advantage of this suspect Houston secondary. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 40-30 Houston. |
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09-29-18 | USC -3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 148 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: USC (10* PAC-12 GAME OF YEAR) Arizona comes in off off back-to-back wins, most recently a 35-14 victory over Oregon State last Saturday. USC is 2-2, but it looked pretty good in its 39-36 win over Washington State last week. QB JT Daniels had 241 passing yards and three TD’s: “This week in practice you could feel the chemistry coming,” Trojans’ coach Clay Helton assessed afterwards. “I told Tyler (Vaughns) that their chemistry was that far away. You could feel it practice and I was hoping it was going to show up in the game. Both JT and the wide receivers did a tremendous job with our PO game.” USC has won nine straight games against the division and it’s also won five straight over the Wildcats. Arizona’ QB Khalil Tate has completed just 54.3 percent of his passes (he does have 1,039 yards, eight TD’s and two INT’s.) Tate had 1,411 rushing yards last year, but he has just 32 this season. The Wildcats are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 as an underdog, while USC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards. T.M. Prediction: 33-25 Trojans. |
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09-29-18 | Virginia Tech +4.5 v. Duke | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Virginia Tech (8* BLOWOUT) Virginia Tech is out to atone for a 49-35 upset at the hands of lowly ODU last Saturday. Duke is the prime opponent to get back on track against as I think the Blue Devils comes in complacent after their 55-13 home destruction of North Carolina Central. The Hokie have won two straight in the series, including a 24-3 victory last year. Despite last week’s “brain fart,” note that Virginia Tech is averaging 40.3 PPG and allowing 23. Duke is averaging 37.5 PPG and it’s allowing 15.2. Those numbers are skewed though because of the level of competition, so I’m not reading too much into them quite yet. In fact note that the Blue Devils are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss, while VT is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing 40 or more points in its previous contest. Duke’s down to its backup QB and I think it’ll have a hard time producing much offense against this focused Hokies’ defense. Play on VT. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Hokies. |
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09-29-18 | Northern Illinois +3 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 144 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Northern Illinois (10* TRADE-MARK) Both teams have struggled to open the year. These schools are evenly matched, a sentiment shared by oddsmakers. EMU has lost two straight to Buffalo and San Diego State, while the Huskies are just 1-3, most recently falling to Florida State 37-19: “We’re obviously disappointed with the outcome of the game,” NIU head coach Rod Carey assessed. “We got it to the fourth quarter and I think we had our opportunities at the end with a missed field goal and a missed two-point conversion. We were in a fight, we kept on swinging, but we didn’t land enough punches. You can’t fault our effort.” NIU QB Marcus Childers had 215 yards passing and an 11-yard TD run in the fourth quarter. The Huskies looked good defensively as well, forcing four turnovers, led by ten tackles from Lance Deveaux. EMU lost 23-20 to SDSU last weekend. The Eagles though are having issues at QB right now. Last week Tyler Wiegers was pulled for junior Mike Glass early in the game and he’d go 9 of 16 for 53 yards with one TD and one INT. There were many positives for NIU in its loss to the Seminoles last week and I look for it to build off that against an EMU team searching for an identity on offense. T.M. Prediction: 25-21 Huskies. |
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09-29-18 | Army +6 v. Buffalo | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 138 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Army (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Note that when these teams played last year, it was the Black Knights which pulled off the 21-17 victory. Army comes in off a hard-fought 28-21 road loss to Oklahoma, while Buffalo looks poised for a letdown here in m opinion after its 42-13 road victory over Rutgers. Last week Army’s option posted 339 yards on 78 carries. The Knights’ defense looked sharp as well, allowing just 335 yards to the Sooners. Army had a whopping 44:41 to 15:19 possession edge, but it wasn’t quite enough. It’ll be more than enough against the Bulls though in my opinion. Buffalo is so far averaging 40.2 PPG and allowing 20. However, those numbers are skewed considering the level of competition its played. Army presents a much more difficult challenge and I think the Bulls get caught “off guard” here. Note that Amy is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Buffalo. |
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09-29-18 | Temple v. Boston College -14.5 | 35-45 | Loss | -112 | 138 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Boston College (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Temple comes in complacent after two straight victories, most recently a 31-17 him evictor over Tulsa last Thursday. BC on the other hand comes in razor focused after suffering its first loss of the year, a 30-13 setback on the road at Purdue. Temple is averaging 28 PPG and it’s allowing 21.5. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead has 364 yards and a TD. BC is averaging 42.8 PPG and it’s allowing 24.8. QB Anthony Brown has 722 yards with ten TD’s and four INT’s. RB AJ Dillon has 491 yards and four TD’s. Note that the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four following a straight up loss, while the Owls are interestingly just 1-5 ATS their last six after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Temple is averaging just 3.7 YPC and only completing 50 percent of its passes. The Owls have committed eight turnovers, while BC has forced nine. This one has “blowout” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 40-15 BC. |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane +13.5 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 122 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tulane (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Everything’s going right for Memphis to open the season, while Tulane is coming off a 49-6 loss to Ohio State in Columbus last week. But I think the 3-0 Tigers do come in complacent here. Note as well that to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Memphis has won 11 straight in the series, including 56-26 last year. The Tigers beat South Alabama last week, but it was in fact far from easy. Giving up 35 point to the Jaguars is not a good thing and the hungry Green Wave are going to have their chances. Most team’s struggle against Ohio State, so I’m not reading too much into last week’s setback. Green Wave QB Jon Banks has 792 yards, five TD’s and just one INT this season. Last year he had 1,800 yards passing with 12 TD’s and five picks. Additionally note that Tulane is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine conference contests and 7-1 ATS in its last eight at home. The Tigers’ weak defensive play comes back to bite them here. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-27 Memphis. |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina +19.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: North Carolina (10* GAME OF WEEK) Outright upset? Of course not. But I absolutely expect the hard-fighting Tar Heels to keep this one a lot closer than what the bookmakers would like us to think. UNC got a much needed 38-35 win over Pitt at home on Saturday, while Miami Florida beat FIU 31-17 at home, the victory much more lop-sided than what the final score would indicate. Miami Florida played its backups for the most part in the second half and FIU scored 14 points in the final ten minutes of the game, long after it was decided. These teams played to a competitive affair last year though, with Miami winning 24-19 at Chapel Hill on October 28th, 2017. I think a similar hard-fought and close battle will occur in 2018 as well. It’s an important game for UNC, which is going to be looking for an upset and to avoid the 1-3 start. Will 3-0 Miami Florida get caught looking past the Tar Heels to the Seminoles at home next week? Very possible of course, as the Hurricanes were already guilty of taking the foot off the gas in their last game after going up big early. Give me the hungry underdog and all those points. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Hurricanes. |
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09-22-18 | Eastern Michigan v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -106 | 135 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Diego State (10* TRADE-MARK) SDSU comes in with confidence after it’s win over Arizona State last week. On the other side of the field, EMU comes in deflated after suffering its first loss of the season in a 35-28 MAC Opening setback to Buffalo. The Eagles continue to split time at the QB position between Tyler Wiegers and Mike Glass and the in-decision is clearly starting to bog down the chemistry of the offense. SDSU will look to take advantage, last week it held ASU to just 36 rushing yards on 24 carries. The Aztecs would themselves rush for 311 yards. Note that SDSU is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game. The EMU offense is one-dimensional, which doesn’t bode well facing an Aztecs unit allowing just 46.3 rushing yards per game this season. This one has blowout written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 35-15 SDSU. |
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09-22-18 | Florida International +27 v. Miami-FL | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 128 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Florida International (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) Miami lost to LSU to open the year, but it’s since won back-to-back games. FIU smashed UMass 63-24 last week, as James Morgan had 207 yards and two TD’s. Morgan has a 63 percent pass completion percentage over the first three games. Overall the Panthers had 329 rushing yards in the win over the Minutemen. Miami destroyed Toldeo 49-24 last week. The Hurricanes defense leads the nation in several categories, but I think the unit will be tested by this under the radar Panthers’ offense. Note that FIU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records, while Miami is just 5-8 ATS in the same position. Give me the hungry dog and all those points! T.M. Prediction: 35-21 Miami Florida. |
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09-22-18 | Miami-OH -4.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 127 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Ohio (10* MAC GAME OF YEAR) This is the opener of the MAC campaign for each team. Likely each is happy that Conference action is underway as they come in a combined 1-5 to open the 2018/19 campaign. Miami Ohio opened with a slim loss to Marshall, but since then it’s been shut down offensively, scoring just three points combined against Cincinnati and Minnesota. The good news is though, is that those are two of the toughest defensive units in the entire country and clearly the Green Falcons don’t possess nearly the defensive talent. Miami Ohio has itself been tough defensively though, allowing just 27.3 PPG so far. Bowling Green is a disaster, allowing 46 PPG so far (522.3 YPG conceded) I like the Redhawks’ defense in this matchup and I believe it’ll be the difference maker. Look for Miami Ohio to get back on track offensively as well against BGSU’s atrocious secondary. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Miami Ohio. |
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09-22-18 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina +4 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 124 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: North Carolina (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Pittsburgh got the better of Georgia Tech 24-19 in its most recent action. UNC comes in rested after its game against UCF was put off because of the Hurricane last weekend. Previous to that though the Tar Heels were upset 41-19 by East Carolina. If recent history is any precedence though, then UNC has to be loving its chances today, as note that in last year’s matchup the Tar Heels scored the 34-31 road win. In Week 2 the Panthers fell 51-6 to Penn State, but they clawed back with the victory over the Yellow Jackets last Saturday. Pittsburgh is averaging just 21 PPG so far, while allowing 25.7. North Carolina has averaged 18 points and allowed 32.5. UNC had a big mental letdown against the Pirates, but I think it’ll bounce back here with the extra week off to prepare. The Panthers have been nothing special and I have a hard time seeing them pulling away in this one. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-23 UNC. |
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09-22-18 | Boston College v. Purdue +7 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 124 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Purdue (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Boston College is undefeated. Purdue is winless. While those facts may remain the same at the end of this one, I think it’s going to be a tight battle. Note that the Boilermakers have lost their first three games by a combined eight points. These teams are actually evenly matched, with competent direction under center, but from a trend based stand point, there’s no doubt that this one favors the Boilermakers, as Purdue is 6-2 ATS in its last eight non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. I think desperation leads Purdue to another tight cover (if not a win!). Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-30 Purdue. |
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -4 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: USC (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) A great overall “situational” pick. Washington State comes in unbeaten and complacent, most recently thrashing Eastern Washington 59-24 at home on Saturday. USC on the other hand will be desperate here after losing its second straight, most recently a 37-14 drubbing at Texas Saturday. Now throw in the fact that the Cougars took the lone match-up in the series last year 30-27, and this one has all the makings of a big time home side blowout in my opinion. Washington State’s early season offensive and defensive numbers are tremendous, but let’s take them with a “grain of salt” at this point. The Cougars face their stiffest test of the season today and in my estimation, they’re primed for a classic “letdown” here. It’s “all hands on deck” for USC though. Note that Washington State is in fact just 2-3 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range as well. Lay the points and expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Trojans. |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -6.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 84 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Temple (10* GAME OF MONTH) Tulsa lost 29-20 at home to Arkansas State on Saturday, while Temple shook off an 0-2 start with a big 35-14 road win at Maryland to end its non-conference schedule last weekend. I think the Owls are going to build off that impressive victory in front of the home town crowd and to open AAC action. And if recent history is any precedence, then Temple has to be loving it chances today as the Owls wiped the floor with the Golden Hurricane in last year’s match-up, 43-22. Tulsa is averaging 26.3 points and it’s allowing 28. Last week the Golden Hurricane turned it over three times, including a pick six INT. Last week Temple had a decisive 429-195 yardage edge over Maryland. The Owls are averaging 27 PPG, but allowing only 23. That’s 58th in the nation. Temple is also 8-2 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Tulsa is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after allowing 200 or more yards rushing in its previous game. Temple held the Terps to just 63 passing yards last week and I look for the defense to build off that impressive performance. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 37-21 Owls. |
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09-15-18 | Washington -5.5 v. Utah | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 148 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington (8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) It’s an inter division clash in the Pac-12 conference and I think the No. 10 Huskies come to play tonight. Washington is so far 1-1, losing its opener at then No. 9 Auburn, before then demolishing North Dakota State 45-3 last weekend. QB Jake Browning had 313 yards and two TD’s in the win and in all the Huskies posted 632 total yards of offense. Utah is 2-0 after getting the better of NIU 17-6 last Saturday. WR Britain Covey had eight catches for 129 yards. The Utes’ defense looked strong, holding Northern Illinois to 228 total yards. The offense though has been lack-lustre and to add insult to injury, leading rusher Zack Moss left last week’s game with injury himself. Also note that while Utah QB Tyler Huntley was 20 of 31 for 286 yards last week, he was also sacked six times. The Utes have lost five straight games to ranked opponents since 2015 and they’re also only 3-11 in their last 14 games against Top 10 rivals since 2014. Additionally note that Washington is a superb 18-4 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. I like the visitors to win decisively. T.M. Prediction: 30-17 Huskies. |
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09-15-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo -3 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 144 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo (10* TRADE-MARK) This is the opener of MAC play for both teams and I think home field will prove critical for the Bulls tonight. EMU comes in off an upset 20-19 win on the road in Purdue last week. Can anyone say “letdown” spot?! Buffalo will look to take advantage and move to 3-0 after defeating Temple on the road last week. EMU converted just 3 of 13 third downs last week and rushed for just 69 yards. The Eagles have also given up a lot of yards in the early going (431 YPG average conceded.) Buffalo’s offense comes in firing on all cylinders and the defense has given up an average of just 315 yards per game so far. Note that the Bulls are 3-0 ATS in their last three after two or more consecutive victories as well. I think Buffalo’s run game will prove to be too much for EMU to handle. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Buffalo. |
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09-15-18 | UTEP v. Tennessee -29 | 0-24 | Loss | -106 | 138 h 46 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Tennessee has won 26 non-conference home games against unranked opponents and all signs point to that trend continuing. Tennessee will be looking to fine tune a few things before the start of league play. And what better team to destroy than lowly UTEP? The Miners have the longest active losing streak among FBS Schools, having dropped 14 in a row, most recently a dismal 52-24 setback at UNLV last Saturday. Overall UTEP allowed four TD plays of 20 or more yards and 414 rushing yards overall. UTEP QB Kai Locksley has so far been a disappointment with just 177 passing yards between the two games. The Vols will look to take advantage of a UTEP side which has lost ten consecutive road games by a combined 390-141. Tennessee is 1-1, losing 40-14 to WVU, before then bouncing back with a 59-3 destruction of East Tennessee State last weekend. Tennessee still has a lot to prove it would seem at this point before SEC play begins: “I thought we did eliminate some of our errors from the previous week, offensively,” Vols’ coach Jeremy Pruitt said earlier in the week. “We didn’t turn the ball over which was a plus, and we scored in the red area. Defensively, we minimized the big plays and got off the field on third downs. We created a score on defense and special teams, so that is always good. We had another turnover to set up an offensive touchdown.” QB Jarrett Guarantano has 326 yards over the first two games. Now throw in the fact that UTEP is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss of more than 20 points, and I think this spread could in fact be a lot larger. Great value on what will prove to be a big time blowout. T.M. Prediction: 40-7 Vols. |
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