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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-03-22 | Will Zalatoris -120 v. Adam Scott | 68-68 | Push | 0 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour continues this week by moving to the Bays Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a Par-72 event consisting of 7466 yards. The 120 professional golfers will have to manage very thick and tall rough. The putting surface consists of fast Bermuda greens. Distance off the tee helps — but ball-striking and safely getting on the green has been critical in past success with so many approach shots of more than 200 yards likely this week. This tournament has been rated as one of the top ten hardest on the PGA Tour for three straight seasons. Interestingly, there have been only three American winners of this tournament since its inception, although Tiger Woods bears responsibility for his lack of sharing the wealth. |
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03-03-22 | Max Homa v. Keith Mitchell -118 | 1-0 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour continues this week by moving to the Bays Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a Par-72 event consisting of 7466 yards. The 120 professional golfers will have to manage very thick and tall rough. The putting surface consists of fast Bermuda greens. Distance off the tee helps — but ball-striking and safely getting on the green has been critical in past success with so many approach shots of more than 200 yards likely this week. This tournament has been rated as one of the top ten hardest on the PGA Tour for three straight seasons. Interestingly, there have been only three American winners of this tournament since its inception, although Tiger Woods bears responsibility for his lack of sharing the wealth. |
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02-24-22 | Keith Mitchell -135 v. Rickie Fowler | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
The California swing of the PGA Tour concluded with the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles last week — the tour now moves to Florida to begin its trek up the state and to Augusta National for the Masters next month. The Florida swing begins in Palm Beach Gardens at the Champion Course at PGA National Resort and Spa. This Par-70 golf course was the third hardest non-major on the tour last season. Eleven of the last 15 winners at this tournament failed to register a double-digit score under par when raising the championship trophy. Consisting of only 7125 yards, the challenge for the pros this week is the array of various hazards. Fifteen of the holes have water in play. There are 67 sand traps. And the wind is always an issue coming off the Atlantic Ocean — winds of 30 miles per hour are expected on Thursday with little let-up possible through the weekend. The putting surface is Bermuda grass. Previous success on this course has been a valuable component to the profile of the Sunday winner: eight of the last 11 champions had previously finished in 13th place or better at this tournament. |
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02-24-22 | J.J. Spaun v. Christiaan Bezuidenhout -144 | 71-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
The California swing of the PGA Tour concluded with the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles last week — the tour now moves to Florida to begin its trek up the state and to Augusta National for the Masters next month. The Florida swing begins in Palm Beach Gardens at the Champion Course at PGA National Resort and Spa. This Par-70 golf course was the third hardest non-major on the tour last season. Eleven of the last 15 winners at this tournament failed to register a double-digit score under par when raising the championship trophy. Consisting of only 7125 yards, the challenge for the pros this week is the array of various hazards. Fifteen of the holes have water in play. There are 67 sand traps. And the wind is always an issue coming off the Atlantic Ocean — winds of 30 miles per hour are expected on Thursday with little let-up possible through the weekend. The putting surface is Bermuda grass. Previous success on this course has been a valuable component to the profile of the Sunday winner: eight of the last 11 champions had previously finished in 13th place or better at this tournament. |
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02-24-22 | Billy Horschel -127 v. Shane Lowry | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
The California swing of the PGA Tour concluded with the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles last week — the tour now moves to Florida to begin its trek up the state and to Augusta National for the Masters next month. The Florida swing begins in Palm Beach Gardens at the Champion Course at PGA National Resort and Spa. This Par-70 golf course was the third hardest non-major on the tour last season. Eleven of the last 15 winners at this tournament failed to register a double-digit score under par when raising the championship trophy. Consisting of only 7125 yards, the challenge for the pros this week is the array of various hazards. Fifteen of the holes have water in play. There are 67 sand traps. And the wind is always an issue coming off the Atlantic Ocean — winds of 30 miles per hour are expected on Thursday with little let-up possible through the weekend. The putting surface is Bermuda grass. Previous success on this course has been a valuable component to the profile of the Sunday winner: eight of the last 11 champions had previously finished in 13th place or better at this tournament. |
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02-17-22 | Dustin Johnson +100 v. Rory McIlroy | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
The top-11 golfers in the world headline the 120 professionals that will compete in the PGA Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week. This tournament was top-five on the tour last year for being the toughest in the following categories: Fairways Hit, Greens-In-Regulation, and Proximity to the Green. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7322 yards. Two Par-5s are on the course that are both manageable — but it will be the long Par-4s that really challenge this week. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass registering 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens measure over 6500 square feet with intricate complexes that reward past experience. |
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02-17-22 | Viktor Hovland -110 v. Will Zalatoris | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
The top-11 golfers in the world headline the 120 professionals that will compete in the PGA Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week. This tournament was top-five on the tour last year for being the toughest in the following categories: Fairways Hit, Greens-In-Regulation, and Proximity to the Green. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7322 yards. Two Par-5s are on the course that are both manageable — but it will be the long Par-4s that really challenge this week. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass registering 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens measure over 6500 square feet with intricate complexes that reward past experience. |
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02-17-22 | Bubba Watson -118 v. Max Homa | 0-1 | Loss | -118 | 0 h 11 m | Show | |
\The top-11 golfers in the world headline the 120 professionals that will compete in the PGA Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week. This tournament was top-five on the tour last year for being the toughest in the following categories: Fairways Hit, Greens-In-Regulation, and Proximity to the Green. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7322 yards. Two Par-5s are on the course that are both manageable — but it will be the long Par-4s that really challenge this week. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass registering 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens measure over 6500 square feet with intricate complexes that reward past experience. |
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02-10-22 | Hideki Matsuyama -115 v. Scottie Scheffler | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. 17 of the top-30 players in the world will take part in this event featuring 132 entrants. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards with three Par-5 holes. The Bermuda greens include a Bentgrass blend that measures 12 feet on the stimpmeter for a putting surface considered fast and firm. This tournament sticks out for its reputation for raucous crowds. |
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02-10-22 | Patrick Cantlay v. Viktor Hovland +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 0 h 20 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. 17 of the top-30 players in the world will take part in this event featuring 132 entrants. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards with three Par-5 holes. The Bermuda greens include a Bentgrass blend that measures 12 feet on the stimpmeter for a putting surface considered fast and firm. This tournament sticks out for its reputation for raucous crowds. |
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02-10-22 | Bubba Watson +100 v. Brooks Koepka | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 0 h 22 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. 17 of the top-30 players in the world will take part in this event featuring 132 entrants. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards with three Par-5 holes. The Bermuda greens include a Bentgrass blend that measures 12 feet on the stimpmeter for a putting surface considered fast and firm. This tournament sticks out for its reputation for raucous crowds. |
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02-03-22 | Justin Rose -115 v. Mackenzie Hughes | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
The California swing of the PGA Tour moves to Pebble Beach this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs are back competing this week after not taking part in last year’s event because of COVID restrictions. 156 entrants will rotate playing at three courses through Saturday: the Par-72 Pebble Beach Golf Links; the Par-72 Spyglass Hill Golf Course; the Par-71 Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. The top sixty players make the cut for the final round on Sunday back at the Pebble Beach course. The last five winning scores have ranged from -17 under par to -19 under par. All three courses feature Poa Annua greens. All three courses are short given PGA standards. The Pebble Beach Golf Links consists of 6972 yards. |
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02-03-22 | Minwoo Lee v. Matthew Jones -115 | 69-76 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
The California swing of the PGA Tour moves to Pebble Beach this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs are back competing this week after not taking part in last year’s event because of COVID restrictions. 156 entrants will rotate playing at three courses through Saturday: the Par-72 Pebble Beach Golf Links; the Par-72 Spyglass Hill Golf Course; the Par-71 Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. The top sixty players make the cut for the final round on Sunday back at the Pebble Beach course. The last five winning scores have ranged from -17 under par to -19 under par. All three courses feature Poa Annua greens. All three courses are short given PGA standards. The Pebble Beach Golf Links consists of 6972 yards. |
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02-03-22 | Jordan Spieth +106 v. Jason Day | 1-0 | Win | 106 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
The California swing of the PGA Tour moves to Pebble Beach this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs are back competing this week after not taking part in last year’s event because of COVID restrictions. 156 entrants will rotate playing at three courses through Saturday: the Par-72 Pebble Beach Golf Links; the Par-72 Spyglass Hill Golf Course; the Par-71 Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. The top sixty players make the cut for the final round on Sunday back at the Pebble Beach course. The last five winning scores have ranged from -17 under par to -19 under par. All three courses feature Poa Annua greens. All three courses are short given PGA standards. The Pebble Beach Golf Links consists of 6972 yards. |
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01-26-22 | Tony Finau v. Xander Schauffele -120 | 67-68 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance. This regular stop on the tour did double duty last year with the South Course hosting the US Open. At 7765 yards, the South Course is the longest on the tour. It features poa annua grass on the putting surface. The North Course is less of a challenge with it being just 7258 yards with bent grass on the greens. The professionals will play both courses before the field is cut on Friday. This event is starting a day earlier than the traditional Thursday Round Ones in order to accommodate a prime-time finish on the east coast on Saturday while avoiding the television behemoth that is the NFL Conference Championship Games on Sunday. |
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01-26-22 | Matthew Wolff +110 v. Maverick McNealy | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 0 h 26 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance. This regular stop on the tour did double duty last year with the South Course hosting the US Open. At 7765 yards, the South Course is the longest on the tour. It features poa annua grass on the putting surface. The North Course is less of a challenge with it being just 7258 yards with bent grass on the greens. The professionals will play both courses before the field is cut on Friday. This event is starting a day earlier than the traditional Thursday Round Ones in order to accommodate a prime-time finish on the east coast on Saturday while avoiding the television behemoth that is the NFL Conference Championship Games on Sunday. |
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01-26-22 | Dustin Johnson +100 v. Sam Burns | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance. This regular stop on the tour did double duty last year with the South Course hosting the US Open. At 7765 yards, the South Course is the longest on the tour. It features poa annua grass on the putting surface. The North Course is less of a challenge with it being just 7258 yards with bent grass on the greens. The professionals will play both courses before the field is cut on Friday. This event is starting a day earlier than the traditional Thursday Round Ones in order to accommodate a prime-time finish on the east coast on Saturday while avoiding the television behemoth that is the NFL Conference Championship Games on Sunday. |
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01-20-22 | Sungjae Im -128 v. Abraham Ancer | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves from Hawai’i to California for The American Express in La Quinta, California. The competition will take place on three golf courses for the first three days at the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the LA Quinta Country Club. After three first three rounds where the 156 professionals played each course, the cut will take for Sunday for the top 65 golfers (plus ties) with the final round taking place at the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course. Winning scores have been in the -20s for 14 straight years at this tournament. |
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01-20-22 | Matthew Wolff -130 v. Gary Woodland | 78-72 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves from Hawai’i to California for The American Express in La Quinta, California. The competition will take place on three golf courses for the first three days at the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the LA Quinta Country Club. After three first three rounds where the 156 professionals played each course, the cut will take for Sunday for the top 65 golfers (plus ties) with the final round taking place at the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course. Winning scores have been in the -20s for 14 straight years at this tournament. |
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01-20-22 | Justin Rose -124 v. Rickie Fowler | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves from Hawai’i to California for The American Express in La Quinta, California. The competition will take place on three golf courses for the first three days at the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the LA Quinta Country Club. After three first three rounds where the 156 professionals played each course, the cut will take for Sunday for the top 65 golfers (plus ties) with the final round taking place at the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course. Winning scores have been in the -20s for 14 straight years at this tournament. |
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01-13-22 | Marc Leishman -108 v. Kevin Na | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 0 h 6 m | Show | |
The first full PGA event in 2022 is the PGA Sony Open at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawai’i this week. The tournament will have 144 golfers competing at this Par-70 course. The distance is 7044 yards with the rough 33% higher than in past years. Some of the metrics I will be privileging for this event includes: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better. Seven of the last eight winners of this tournament competing at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawai’i the previous week. |
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01-13-22 | Corey Conners -114 v. Talor Gooch | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 0 h 11 m | Show | |
The first full PGA event in 2022 is the PGA Sony Open at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawai’i this week. The tournament will have 144 golfers competing at this Par-70 course. The distance is 7044 yards with the rough 33% higher than in past years. Some of the metrics I will be privileging for this event includes: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better. Seven of the last eight winners of this tournament competing at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawai’i the previous week. |
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07-28-21 | Rory McIlroy v. Hideki Matsuyama +101 | 0-0 | Push | 0 | 0 h 13 m | Show | |
The Olympic Men’s Golf event takes place at the east course of the Kasumigaseki Country Club. This is a standard four-day event consisting of 72 rounds of golf. The course is a par-71 consisting of 7447 yards. Bentgrass is the putting surface on two-tiered greens. Tim Fazio redesigned the course in 2016. Most of the 60 golfers competing at this event are unfamiliar with the course. Ball-striking (as always) appears to be a critical component to success. I will be looking for skill-sets that will likely translate for a golfer despite the unfamiliar environment. |
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07-15-21 | Tyrrell Hatton -144 v. Tommy Fleetwood | 0-1 | Loss | -144 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
After six major championships, the British Open will finally be played again for the first time since July of 2019 after last year’s event was canceled because of the pandemic. Royal St. George golf course at Sandwich, Kent, in England hosts this year’s event for the 15th time in the history of the Open Championship. Successful golfers will need to deploy every club in their bag for this Par-70 course consisting of 7189 yards. Humps and bumps are littered in the fairways protected by pot bunkers. The professionals will then have to manage undulating putting surfaces when they hit the green. Winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour that will gust up to 25 MPH add to the challenge. Big hitters will not be rewarded this week at this links course on the ocean. Course management, ball-striking, and handling adversity are the attributes that typically define success here and at Open Championships. |
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07-15-21 | Louis Oosthuizen -135 v. Tommy Fleetwood | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
After six major championships, the British Open will finally be played again for the first time since July of 2019 after last year’s event was canceled because of the pandemic. Royal St. George golf course at Sandwich, Kent, in England hosts this year’s event for the 15th time in the history of the Open Championship. Successful golfers will need to deploy every club in their bag for this Par-70 course consisting of 7189 yards. Humps and bumps are littered in the fairways protected by pot bunkers. The professionals will then have to manage undulating putting surfaces when they hit the green. Winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour that will gust up to 25 MPH add to the challenge. Big hitters will not be rewarded this week at this links course on the ocean. Course management, ball-striking, and handling adversity are the attributes that typically define success here and at Open Championships. |
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07-15-21 | Brooks Koepka -130 v. Daniel Berger | 69-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
After six major championships, the British Open will finally be played again for the first time since July of 2019 after last year’s event was canceled because of the pandemic. Royal St. George golf course at Sandwich, Kent, in England hosts this year’s event for the 15th time in the history of the Open Championship. Successful golfers will need to deploy every club in their bag for this Par-70 course consisting of 7189 yards. Humps and bumps are littered in the fairways protected by pot bunkers. The professionals will then have to manage undulating putting surfaces when they hit the green. Winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour that will gust up to 25 MPH add to the challenge. Big hitters will not be rewarded this week at this links course on the ocean. Course management, ball-striking, and handling adversity are the attributes that typically define success here and at Open Championships. |
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06-17-21 | Cameron Smith v. Louis Oosthuizen -120 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
The 121st US Open takes place at the Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. This was the site for the 2008 US Open that Tiger Woods won in a playoff on a bum leg. Torrey Pines is an annual spot on the PGA Tour with the Farmers Insurance Open in January. That tournament uses both the North and South courses in the first two days before going to the more difficult South course over the weekend. Course history on the South course is helpful — but the USGA has “US Open-ized” the course for this tournament so taking into account the past history at US Opens (with heavy rough, super-fast greens, etc.) is important. This is a Par-71 tournament with a long 7685 yards on the course. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass. |
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06-17-21 | Rory McIlroy -125 v. Jordan Spieth | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
The 121st US Open takes place at the Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. This was the site for the 2008 US Open that Tiger Woods won in a playoff on a bum leg. Torrey Pines is an annual spot on the PGA Tour with the Farmers Insurance Open in January. That tournament uses both the North and South courses in the first two days before going to the more difficult South course over the weekend. Course history on the South course is helpful — but the USGA has “US Open-ized” the course for this tournament so taking into account the past history at US Opens (with heavy rough, super-fast greens, etc.) is important. This is a Par-71 tournament with a long 7685 yards on the course. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass. |
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06-17-21 | Brooks Koepka +1.5 v. Bryson DeChambeau | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 0 h 9 m | Show | |
The 121st US Open takes place at the Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. This was the site for the 2008 US Open that Tiger Woods won in a playoff on a bum leg. Torrey Pines is annual spot on the PGA Tour with the Farmers Insurance Open in January. That tournament uses both the North and South courses in the first two days before going to the more difficult South course over the weekend. Course history on the South course is helpful — but the USGA has “US Open-ized” the course for this tournament so taking into account past history at US Open (with heavy rough, super-fast greens, etc.) is important. This is a Par-71 tournament with a long 7685 yards on the course. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass. |
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05-13-21 | Scottie Scheffler +1.5 v. Jordan Spieth | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
The PGA annual AT&T Bryon Nelson tournament moves to a new course this year with the TPC Craig Ranch in the northern suburbs of Dallas hosting the event. This will be the third new venue in the last four incarnations of this tournament after last year’s event was canceled due to the COVID pandemic. TPC Craig Ranch has hosted many second-tier professional events but this will be its first foray hosting a PGA event of this magnitude. This is a long course consisting of 7468 yards. With wide fairways, there is an expectation that this could be a birdie-fest this week. Wind can be a factor for tournaments in Texas. With a lack of course history to assess past metrics that defined success, I will be relying on some reliable fallbacks. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green are both reliable in assessing form from iron play. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee measures the driver while taking distance and accuracy into account. Birdies-or-Better Percentage helps to identify what golfers will thrive in good scoring conditions. With four Par-3 holes over 200 yards, Par-3 Scoring: 200 Yards or more will be an illuminating metric. And with the Bentgrass putting surface, Shots-Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) will be helpful. |
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05-13-21 | Sam Burns v. Ryan Palmer +0.5 | 65-67 | Loss | -140 | 0 h 8 m | Show | |
The PGA annual AT&T Bryon Nelson tournament moves to a new course this year with the TPC Craig Ranch in the northern suburbs of Dallas hosting the event. This will be the third new venue in the last four incarnations of this tournament after last year’s event was canceled due to the COVID pandemic. TPC Craig Ranch has hosted many second-tier professional events but this will be its first foray hosting a PGA event of this magnitude. This is a long course consisting of 7468 yards. With wide fairways, there is an expectation that this could be a birdie-fest this week. Wind can be a factor for tournaments in Texas. With a lack of course history to assess past metrics that defined success, I will be relying on some reliable fallbacks. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green are both reliable in assessing form from iron play. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee measures the driver while taking distance and accuracy into account. Birdies-or-Better Percentage helps to identify what golfers will thrive in good scoring conditions. With four Par-3 holes over 200 yards, Par-3 Scoring: 200 Yards or more will be an illuminating metric. And with the Bentgrass putting surface, Shots-Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) will be helpful. |
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05-13-21 | Cameron Champ v. Marc Leishman -115 | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 0 h 10 m | Show | |
The PGA annual AT&T Bryon Nelson tournament moves to a new course this year with the TPC Craig Ranch in the northern suburbs of Dallas hosting the event. This will be the third new venue in the last four incarnations of this tournament after last year’s event was canceled due to the COVID pandemic. TPC Craig Ranch has hosted many second-tier professional events but this will be its first foray hosting a PGA event of this magnitude. This is a long course consisting of 7468 yards. With wide fairways, there is an expectation that this could be a birdie-fest this week. Wind can be a factor for tournaments in Texas. With a lack of course history to assess past metrics that defined success, I will be relying on some reliable fallbacks. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green are both reliable in assessing form from iron play. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee measures the driver while taking distance and accuracy into account. Birdies-or-Better Percentage helps to identify what golfers will thrive in good scoring conditions. With four Par-3 holes over 200 yards, Par-3 Scoring: 200 Yards or more will be an illuminating metric. And with the Bentgrass putting surface, Shots-Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) will be helpful. |
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05-06-21 | Gary Woodland v. Corey Conners -165 | 67-69 | Loss | -165 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
The Wells Fargo Championship takes place at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is a long course consisting of 7554 yards with a par of 71. The greens consist of Bermuda grass. The last two champions have finished in the top two in Shots-Gained: Putting and Putting Average — so those are metrics I will be privileging this week. I will also be valuing Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and Proximity from 200 yards or more away from the tee. |
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05-06-21 | Patrick Reed +0.5 v. Rory McIlroy | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
The Wells Fargo Championship takes place at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is a long course consisting of 7554 yards with a par of 71. The greens consist of Bermuda grass. The last two champions have finished in the top two in Shots-Gained: Putting and Putting Average — so those are metrics I will be privileging this week. I will also be valuing Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and Proximity from 200 yards or more away from the tee. |
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05-06-21 | Bryson DeChambeau -120 v. Rory McIlroy | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
The Wells Fargo Championship takes place at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is a long course consisting of 7554 yards with a par of 71. The greens consist of Bermuda grass. The last two champions have finished in the top two in Shots-Gained: Putting and Putting Average — so those are metrics I will be privileging this week. I will also be valuing Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and Proximity from 200 yards or more away from the tee. |
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04-29-21 | Justin Rose -160 v. Danny Willett | 74-71 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
Strokes play returns to the PGA Tour this week after the Zurich Classic matchplay event last week in New Orleans. The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Tampa Bay presents one of the most challenging stops on the tour each year. This is a Par-71 course with five Par-3s consisting of 7340 yards. Success at this tournament typically relies on the golfer’s second shot. Distance off the drive is not a skill that is usually rewarded. The pros face three-inch rough, 74 bunkers, and water that impacts half the course if they miss the fairway. The narrow Bermuda greens approach 12-feet on the stimptmeter. Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green has been a reliable metric to determine success. The last three winners here have finished 1st, 6th, and 5th for the week in this metric. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green is also vital, the last three winners have finished 7th, 7th, and 2nd. Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage is also important: the last three winners have finished 2nd, 14th, and 1st. Furthermore, I will be looking closely at Bogey Avoidance given the likely lower scores this week. This tournament was canceled because of the COVID shutdown last year so course history begins in 2019. |
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04-29-21 | Paul Casey +100 v. Patrick Reed | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Strokes play returns to the PGA Tour this week after the Zurich Classic matchplay event last week in New Orleans. The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Tampa Bay presents one of the most challenging stops on the tour each year. This is a Par-71 course with five Par-3s consisting of 7340 yards. Success at this tournament typically relies on the golfer’s second shot. Distance off the drive is not a skill that is usually rewarded. The pros face three-inch rough, 74 bunkers, and water that impacts half the course if they miss the fairway. The narrow Bermuda greens approach 12-feet on the stimptmeter. Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green has been a reliable metric to determine success. The last three winners here have finished 1st, 6th, and 5th for the week in this metric. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green is also vital, the last three winners have finished 7th, 7th, and 2nd. Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage is also important: the last three winners have finished 2nd, 14th, and 1st. Furthermore, I will be looking closely at Bogey Avoidance given the likely lower scores this week. This tournament was canceled because of the COVID shutdown last year so course history begins in 2019. |
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04-29-21 | Corey Conners -160 v. Bubba Watson | 70-70 | Push | 0 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Strokes play returns to the PGA Tour this week after the Zurich Classic matchplay event last week in New Orleans. The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Tampa Bay presents one of the most challenging stops on the tour each year. This is a Par-71 course with five Par-3s consisting of 7340 yards. Success at this tournament typically relies on the golfer’s second shot. Distance off the drive is not a skill that is usually rewarded. The pros face three-inch rough, 74 bunkers, and water that impacts half the course if they miss the fairway. The narrow Bermuda greens approach 12-feet on the stimptmeter. Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green has been a reliable metric to determine success. The last three winners here have finished 1st, 6th, and 5th for the week in this metric. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green is also vital, the last three winners have finished 7th, 7th, and 2nd. Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage is also important: the last three winners have finished 2nd, 14th, and 1st. Furthermore, I will be looking closely at Bogey Avoidance given the likely lower scores this week. This tournament was canceled because of the COVID shutdown last year so course history begins in 2019. |
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04-15-21 | Collin Morikawa v. Patrick Cantlay -105 | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
The RBC Heritage Open takes place at Harbour Town Golf Links at Hilton Head Island in South Carolina. This is a Par-17 course consisting of a short 7121 yards. The rough is short — the first tier outside the fairway will be less than an inch. The fairways are narrow. Water is in play on all 18 holes — and the wind is usually a factor. The greens are the second smallest on the tour (to Pebble Beach) with an average of 3700 square feet consisting of Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be considering when handicapping this event include Par-4 Scoring (the last four winners here finished first or second in Par-4 Scoring for the week), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shots-Gained: Total at Pete Dye-designed courses, Shots-Gained: Short Game Approach plus Putting, and Greens-In-Regulation. |
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04-15-21 | Webb Simpson -133 v. Collin Morikawa | 0-1 | Loss | -133 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
The RBC Heritage Open takes place at Harbour Town Golf Links at Hilton Head Island in South Carolina. This is a Par-17 course consisting of a short 7121 yards. The rough is short — the first tier outside the fairway will be less than an inch. The fairways are narrow. Water is in play on all 18 holes — and the wind is usually a factor. The greens are the second smallest on the tour (to Pebble Beach) with an average of 3700 square feet consisting of Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be considering when handicapping this event include Par-4 Scoring (the last four winners here finished first or second in Par-4 Scoring for the week), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shots-Gained: Total at Pete Dye-designed courses, Shots-Gained: Short Game Approach plus Putting, and Greens-In-Regulation. |
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04-15-21 | Paul Casey -112 v. Cameron Smith | 0-1 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
The RBC Heritage Open takes place at Harbour Town Golf Links at Hilton Head Island in South Carolina. This is a Par-17 course consisting of a short 7121 yards. The rough is short — the first tier outside the fairway will be less than an inch. The fairways are narrow. Water is in play on all 18 holes — and the wind is usually a factor. The greens are the second smallest on the tour (to Pebble Beach) with an average of 3700 square feet consisting of Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be considering when handicapping this event include Par-4 Scoring (the last four winners here finished first or second in Par-4 Scoring for the week), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shots-Gained: Total at Pete Dye-designed courses, Shots-Gained: Short Game Approach plus Putting, and Greens-In-Regulation. |
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04-08-21 | Justin Thomas -120 v. Bryson DeChambeau | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
The Masters at Augusta National takes place once again on its traditional April weekend just five months after the 2020 incarnation was delayed until November due to COVID 19. This event will have 88 competitors. Augusta National is a Par 72 course consisting of 7475 yards. Dustin Johnson broke the course record by two strokes with his 20 under in November. Historically, the powers-that-be make the course more difficult on the heels of low scores in the previous event. The Bobby Jones-designed track is considered the biggest test for a golfer’s second shot. The greens are very fast consisting of A-1 Penn Bentgrass with an average of 6500 square feet. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping the field this week include Greens-In-Regulation (the last two winners led the field in GIR), Par-4 Scoring (the last three winners finished in the Top-Seven including two of them leading the field), Bogey-Avoidance (the last three winners were Top-14), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green (critical to set up makable puts on the fast greens), and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green (always important in measuring ball-striking). |
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04-08-21 | Patrick Cantlay -133 v. Tony Finau | 0-1 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
The Masters at Augusta National takes place once again on its traditional April weekend just five months after the 2020 incarnation was delayed until November due to COVID 19. This event will have 88 competitors. Augusta National is a Par 72 course consisting of 7475 yards. Dustin Johnson broke the course record by two strokes with his 20 under in November. Historically, the powers-that-be make the course more difficult on the heels of low scores in the previous event. The Bobby Jones-designed track is considered the biggest test for a golfer’s second shot. The greens are very fast consisting of A-1 Penn Bentgrass with an average of 6500 square feet. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping the field this week include Greens-In-Regulation (the last two winners led the field in GIR), Par-4 Scoring (the last three winners finished in the Top-Seven including two of them leading the field), Bogey-Avoidance (the last three winners were Top-14), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green (critical to set up makable puts on the fast greens), and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green (always important in measuring ball-striking). |
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04-08-21 | Viktor Hovland v. Patrick Reed -110 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
The Masters at Augusta National takes place once again on its traditional April weekend just five months after the 2020 incarnation was delayed until November due to COVID 19. This event will have 88 competitors. Augusta National is a Par 72 course consisting of 7475 yards. Dustin Johnson broke the course record by two strokes with his 20 under in November. Historically, the powers-that-be make the course more difficult on the heels of low scores in the previous event. The Bobby Jones-designed track is considered the biggest test for a golfer’s second shot. The greens are very fast consisting of A-1 Penn Bentgrass with an average of 6500 square feet. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping the field this week include Greens-In-Regulation (the last two winners led the field in GIR), Par-4 Scoring (the last three winners finished in the Top-Seven including two of them leading the field), Bogey-Avoidance (the last three winners were Top-14), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green (critical to set up makable puts on the fast greens), and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green (always important in measuring ball-striking). |
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04-01-21 | Phil Mickelson v. Matt Kuchar -150 | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
The Valero Texas Open takes place at TPC San Antonio. This event was canceled last year because of COVID. In 2019, the Oaks Course consisted of 7455 yards — another 59 yards have been added this year for this Par 72 tournament. Pat Dye and Greg Norman designed the course with Sergio Garcia providing input along the way — so it is fitting that this a track that challenges ball-strikers. Wind can often play a role in challenging the professionals. The greens are Bermuda grass. The metrics I have privileged in handicapping this tournament given past results include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, Par-3 Scoring, and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. |
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04-01-21 | Cameron Tringale v. Ryan Palmer +106 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The Valero Texas Open takes place at TPC San Antonio. This event was canceled last year because of COVID. In 2019, the Oaks Course consisted of 7455 yards — another 59 yards have been added this year for this Par 72 tournament. Pat Dye and Greg Norman designed the course with Sergio Garcia providing input along the way — so it is fitting that this a track that challenges ball-strikers. Wind can often play a role in challenging the professionals. The greens are Bermuda grass. The metrics I have privileged in handicapping this tournament given past results include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, Par-3 Scoring, and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. |
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04-01-21 | Corey Conners -105 v. Abraham Ancer | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
The Valero Texas Open takes place at TPC San Antonio. This event was canceled last year because of COVID. In 2019, the Oaks Course consisted of 7455 yards — another 59 yards have been added this year for this Par 72 tournament. Pat Dye and Greg Norman designed the course with Sergio Garcia providing input along the way — so it is fitting that this a track that challenges ball-strikers. Wind can often play a role in challenging the professionals. The greens are Bermuda grass. The metrics I have privileged in handicapping this tournament given past results include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, Par-3 Scoring, and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. |
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02-25-21 | Collin Morikawa v. Webb Simpson -115 | 70-66 | Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show | |
Most of the top professionals are participating in the World Golf Championships event this week in Bradenton, Florida. Mexico City has been the site of this tournament over the last few years but it will take place in a likely one-off at the Concession Golf Course. WGC tournaments are no-cut events. Most of the pros will not be very familiar with this course — the highest-profile event it has recently hosted was the NCAA Championship in 2015 that Bryson DeChambeau won. This course consists of 74774 yards with water impacting more than half the holes. Three of the four Par-5s have 577, 590, and 609 yards. The construction of the fairways is forgiving off the tee but the undulated greens will put a premium on second shots. Bermuda greens are the putting surface on the relatively small greens. Jack Nicklaus designed the course — he typically prioritizes iron play for success on his layouts. The metrics I will be privileging include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and (as always) Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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02-25-21 | Jon Rahm v. Justin Thomas +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 104 | 1 h 47 m | Show | |
Most of the top professionals are participating in the World Golf Championships event this week in Bradenton, Florida. Mexico City has been the site of this tournament over the last few years but it will take place in a likely one-off at the Concession Golf Course. WGC tournaments are no-cut events. Most of the pros will not be very familiar with this course — the highest-profile event it has recently hosted was the NCAA Championship in 2015 that Bryson DeChambeau won. This course consists of 74774 yards with water impacting more than half the holes. Three of the four Par-5s have 577, 590, and 609 yards. The construction of the fairways is forgiving off the tee but the undulated greens will put a premium on second shots. Bermuda greens are the putting surface on the relatively small greens. Jack Nicklaus designed the course — he typically prioritizes iron play for success on his layouts. The metrics I will be privileging include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and (as always) Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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02-25-21 | Jon Rahm v. Rory McIlroy +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 47 m | Show | |
Most of the top professionals are participating in the World Golf Championships event this week in Bradenton, Florida. Mexico City has been the site of this tournament over the last few years but it will take place in a likely one-off at the Concession Golf Course. WGC tournaments are no-cut events. Most of the pros will not be very familiar with this course — the highest-profile event it has recently hosted was the NCAA Championship in 2015 that Bryson DeChambeau won. This course consists of 74774 yards with water impacting more than half the holes. Three of the four Par-5s have 577, 590, and 609 yards. The construction of the fairways is forgiving off the tee but the undulated greens will put a premium on second shots. Bermuda greens are the putting surface on the relatively small greens. Jack Nicklaus designed the course — he typically prioritizes iron play for success on his layouts. The metrics I will be privileging include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and (as always) Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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02-18-21 | Carlos Ortiz -115 v. Russell Henley | 75-69 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
The Genesis Invitational at Pacific Palisades in California is the next stop on the PGA Tour. The Riveria Country Club is the site for this event for 120 professionals this week. This is considered one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. The 7340 yardage course is a Par-71. Six of the par-4s are 458 or more yards off-the-tee. Eight of the holes see bogeys or worse at least 20% of the time. Success at this event requires the golfers to be skilled with all 14 of their clubs. The putting surface Poa Annua greens registering 12.5 feet or more on the stimptmeter. The metrics I will be privileging to handicap this event include Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee since driving distance is a plus but the pros will want to avoid the thick rough featured at the Riv. I will also look to Bogey-Avoidance as well as the always important Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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02-18-21 | Justin Thomas -115 v. Rory McIlroy | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
The Genesis Invitational at Pacific Palisades in California is the next stop on the PGA Tour. The Riveria Country Club is the site for this event for 120 professionals this week. This is considered one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. The 7340 yardage course is a Par-71. Six of the par-4s are 458 or more yards off-the-tee. Eight of the holes see bogeys or worse at least 20% of the time. Success at this event requires the golfers to be skilled with all 14 of their clubs. The putting surface Poa Annua greens registering 12.5 feet or more on the stimptmeter. The metrics I will be privileging to handicap this event include Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee since driving distance is a plus but the pros will want to avoid the thick rough featured at the Riv. I will also look to Bogey-Avoidance as well as the always important Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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02-18-21 | Xander Schauffele -110 v. Rory McIlroy | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
The Genesis Invitational at Pacific Palisades in California is the next stop on the PGA Tour. The Riveria Country Club is the site for this event for 120 professionals this week. This is considered one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. The 7340 yardage course is a Par-71. Six of the par-4s are 458 or more yards off-the-tee. Eight of the holes see bogeys or worse at least 20% of the time. Success at this event requires the golfers to be skilled with all 14 of their clubs. The putting surface Poa Annua greens registering 12.5 feet or more on the stimptmeter. The metrics I will be privileging to handicap this event include Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee since driving distance is a plus but the pros will want to avoid the thick rough featured at the Riv. I will also look to Bogey-Avoidance as well as the always important Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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02-11-21 | Kevin Streelman -110 v. Si Woo Kim | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Monterey Peninsula Country Club at Pebble Beach, California with the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs will not be competing this week given COVID protocols which changes the format this year. Usually, this event involves three separate courses for the first three days before the cut with the final round being played at the Pebble Beach Golf Links course. The Monterey Course will not be used this year — so the professionals will play the first two days at the Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses with the cut after 36 holes before concluding the weekend at Pebble Beach. This is the shortest course on the tour with Pebble Beach consisting of 7051 yards and Spyglass ten yards shorter. The greens are also the smallest on the tour. Wind is an issue with the location being on the Pacific Ocean. The putting surface is Poa grass. The metrics I am privileging this week in handicapping this event include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, and (as always), Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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02-11-21 | Paul Casey -135 v. Max Homa | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Monterey Peninsula Country Club at Pebble Beach, California with the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs will not be competing this week given COVID protocols which changes the format this year. Usually, this event involves three separate courses for the first three days before the cut with the final round being played at the Pebble Beach Golf Links course. The Monterey Course will not be used this year — so the professionals will play the first two days at the Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses with the cut after 36 holes before concluding the weekend at Pebble Beach. This is the shortest course on the tour with Pebble Beach consisting of 7051 yards and Spyglass ten yards shorter. The greens are also the smallest on the tour. Wind is an issue with the location being on the Pacific Ocean. The putting surface is Poa grass. The metrics I am privileging this week in handicapping this event include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, and (as always), Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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02-11-21 | Matthew Jones -130 v. Alexander Noren | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Monterey Peninsula Country Club at Pebble Beach, California with the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs will not be competing this week given COVID protocols which changes the format this year. Usually, this event involves three separate courses for the first three days before the cut with the final round being played at the Pebble Beach Golf Links course. The Monterey Course will not be used this year — so the professionals will play the first two days at the Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses with the cut after 36 holes before concluding the weekend at Pebble Beach. This is the shortest course on the tour with Pebble Beach consisting of 7051 yards and Spyglass ten yards shorter. The greens are also the smallest on the tour. Wind is an issue with the location being on the Pacific Ocean. The putting surface is Poa grass. The metrics I am privileging this week in handicapping this event include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, and (as always), Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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02-04-21 | Harris English v. Webb Simpson -120 | 72-73 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour continues with the trip to Phoenix in the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. This is typically a rowdy event with 170,000 spectators making this considered to be the “People’s Open”. However, COVID restrictions will keep this year’s attendance at 5000. This is a par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards. The professionals will contend with 67 bunkers with water playing a role in two of the holes. 132 pros will compete this week. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Greens-In-Regulation. |
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02-04-21 | Bubba Watson -135 v. Jason Day | 71-71 | Push | 0 | 0 h 9 m | Show | |
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour continues with the trip to Phoenix in the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. This is typically a rowdy event with 170,000 spectators making this considered to be the “People’s Open”. However, COVID restrictions will keep this year’s attendance at 5000. This is a par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards. The professionals will contend with 67 bunkers with water playing a role in two of the holes. 132 pros will compete this week. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Greens-In-Regulation. |
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02-04-21 | Sungjae Im v. Ryan Palmer +1.5 | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 0 h 8 m | Show | |
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour continues with the trip to Phoenix in the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. This is typically a rowdy event with 170,000 spectators making this considered to be the “People’s Open”. However, COVID restrictions will keep this year’s attendance at 5000. This is a par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards. The professionals will contend with 67 bunkers with water playing a role in two of the holes. 132 pros will compete this week. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Greens-In-Regulation. |
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01-28-21 | Bubba Watson -165 v. James Hahn | 70-70 | Push | 0 | 0 h 18 m | Show | |
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour returns to Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. The South Course will host the US Open later in the summer so the professionals will be using this test to prepare for that major championship. The 156 entrants will rotate between the North and South courses for the first two days with the South Course serving as the weekend track after the cut. The North Course plays about 2.5 strokes easier with it being 450 yards shorter with Bentgrass greens. The South Course is a beast at 7465 yards with Poa Annua greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey-Avoidance, Driving Distance. Course history is also something I will be privileging. With the high cliffs, the gull winds, and the Poa Annua greens, there are plenty of distractions with this unique set-up that unravels the pros. |
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01-28-21 | Brooks Koepka v. Harris English -150 | 1-0 | Loss | -150 | 0 h 6 m | Show | |
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour returns to Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. The South Course will host the US Open later in the summer so the professionals will be using this test to prepare for that major championship. The 156 entrants will rotate between the North and South courses for the first two days with the South Course serving as the weekend track after the cut. The North Course plays about 2.5 strokes easier with it being 450 yards shorter with Bentgrass greens. The South Course is a beast at 7465 yards with Poa Annua greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey-Avoidance, Driving Distance. Course history is also something I will be privileging. With the high cliffs, the gull winds, and the Poa Annua greens, there are plenty of distractions with this unique set-up that unravels the pros. |
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01-21-21 | Patrick Reed -180 v. Gary Woodland | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
The American Express PGA event takes place at La Quinta, California. The former Bob Hope tournament is traditionally a pro-am event but will be altering its format because of COVID protocols. Rather than playing on three different courses for the first three rounds, the field will play the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus course the first two days before those that make the cut will play the weekend at the Stadium course. This event is relatively easy based on tour standards to accommodate the amateurs. The average winning score since 2011 is 24.5 under par. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping this tournament based on history here include Par-5 Scoring; Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better (Bermuda greens); Shots-Gained: Birdies or Better. |
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01-21-21 | Sungjae Im -180 v. Russell Knox | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
The American Express PGA event takes place at La Quinta, California. The former Bob Hope tournament is traditionally a pro-am event but will be altering its format because of COVID protocols. Rather than playing on three different courses for the first three rounds, the field will play the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus course the first two days before those that make the cut will play the weekend at the Stadium course. This event is relatively easy based on tour standards to accommodate the amateurs. The average winning score since 2011 is 24.5 under par. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping this tournament based on history here include Par-5 Scoring; Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better (Bermuda greens); Shots-Gained: Birdies or Better. |
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01-21-21 | Kevin Na -175 v. Andrew Landry | 75-70 | Loss | -175 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
The American Express PGA event takes place at La Quinta, California. The former Bob Hope tournament is traditionally a pro-am event but will be altering its format because of COVID protocols. Rather than playing on three different courses for the first three rounds, the field will play the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus course the first two days before those that make the cut will play the weekend at the Stadium course. This event is relatively easy based on tour standards to accommodate the amateurs. The average winning score since 2011 is 24.5 under par. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping this tournament based on history here include Par-5 Scoring; Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better (Bermuda greens); Shots-Gained: Birdies or Better. |
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01-14-21 | Collin Morikawa +110 v. Daniel Berger | 0-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
The PGA Sony Open takes place at the Waialae Country Club in Hawai’i. This is a short 7044-yard course with a par of 70. This is the first full event of 2020 with 144 players competing. As opposed to last week’s event at the Sentry Tournament with its wide-open fairways, this golf course features narrow fairways protected by trees. Bermuda grass is the putting surface. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping this event include Rounds in the 60s, Shots-Gained: Putting, and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Seven of the last nine winners of this tournament competed in Hawai’i the previous week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. |
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01-14-21 | Adam Scott v. Ryan Palmer -110 | 0-0 | Push | 0 | 0 h 16 m | Show | |
The PGA Sony Open takes place at the Waialae Country Club in Hawai’i. This is a short 7044-yard course with a par of 70. This is the first full event of 2020 with 144 players competing. As opposed to last week’s event at the Sentry Tournament with its wide-open fairways, this golf course features narrow fairways protected by trees. Bermuda grass is the putting surface. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping this event include Rounds in the 60s, Shots-Gained: Putting, and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Seven of the last nine winners of this tournament competed in Hawai’i the previous week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. |
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01-14-21 | Sungjae Im -110 v. Hideki Matsuyama | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 0 h 18 m | Show | |
The PGA Sony Open takes place at the Waialae Country Club in Hawai’i. This is a short 7044-yard course with a par of 70. This is the first full event of 2020 with 144 players competing. As opposed to last week’s event at the Sentry Tournament with its wide-open fairways, this golf course features narrow fairways protected by trees. Bermuda grass is the putting surface. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping this event include Rounds in the 60s, Shots-Gained: Putting, and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Seven of the last nine winners of this tournament competed in Hawai’i the previous week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. |
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01-07-21 | Patrick Reed -155 v. Scottie Scheffler | 0-1 | Loss | -155 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
The PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions is the first event in 2021 on the tour. The entry requirements loosened for this event given COVID prompting the cancellation of many of last year’s tournaments. Not only are past winners invited for this event in Kapalua, Hawai’i but so too are the top-30 players in last year’s final FedEx rankings. 42 golfers will compete in this event loaded with the best players in the world (with the notable exception of Rory McIlroy). With some of the widest fairways on the tour, the Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course offers a birdie-fest to the professionals. The elevation changes to this course will also reward the bigger hitters. Wind is expected this week ranging from 8 to16 MPH. The putting surface is velcro Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be privileging in handicapping the golfers include: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Strokes-Gained: Par-5s; Proximity 100-125 yards; Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green (always). |
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01-07-21 | Webb Simpson -125 v. Sungjae Im | 70-67 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
The PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions is the first event in 2021 on the tour. The entry requirements loosened for this event given COVID prompting the cancellation of many of last year’s tournaments. Not only are past winners invited for this event in Kapalua, Hawai’i but so too are the top-30 players in last year’s final FedEx rankings. 42 golfers will compete in this event loaded with the best players in the world (with the notable exception of Rory McIlroy). With some of the widest fairways on the tour, the Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course offers a birdie-fest to the professionals. The elevation changes to this course will also reward the bigger hitters. Wind is expected this week ranging from 8 to16 MPH. The putting surface is velcro Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be privileging in handicapping the golfers include: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Strokes-Gained: Par-5s; Proximity 100-125 yards; Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green (always). |
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01-07-21 | Brendon Todd v. Bryson DeChambeau -200 | 68-69 | Loss | -200 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
The PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions is the first event in 2021 on the tour. The entry requirements loosened for this event given COVID prompting the cancellation of many of last year’s tournaments. Not only are past winners invited for this event in Kapalua, Hawai’i but so too are the top-30 players in last year’s final FedEx rankings. 42 golfers will compete in this event loaded with the best players in the world (with the notable exception of Rory McIlroy). With some of the widest fairways on the tour, the Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course offers a birdie-fest to the professionals. The elevation changes to this course will also reward the bigger hitters. Wind is expected this week ranging from 8 to16 MPH. The putting surface is velcro Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be privileging in handicapping the golfers include: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Strokes-Gained: Par-5s; Proximity 100-125 yards; Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green (always). |
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11-19-20 | Jason Kokrak v. Webb Simpson -170 | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
The RSM Classic takes place at the Sea Island Resort in Georgia. This event will take place on two courses for the first two days. The Plantation course is consists of 7062 yards with a par of 72. The Seaside course — which will also serve as the weekend course — is a par 70 course consisting of 7005. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping the professionals are the following: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shot-Gained: Putting on Bermuda Greens; Shots-Gained: Par 4 (400-450 yards) — eight holes on this course of this length. |
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11-19-20 | Joaquin Niemann v. Sebastian Munoz -120 | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
The RSM Classic takes place at the Sea Island Resort in Georgia. This event will take place on two courses for the first two days. The Plantation course is consists of 7062 yards with a par of 72. The Seaside course — which will also serve as the weekend course — is a par 70 course consisting of 7005. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping the professionals are the following: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shot-Gained: Putting on Bermuda Greens; Shots-Gained: Par 4 (400-450 yards) — eight holes on this course of this length. |
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11-19-20 | Russell Henley -106 v. Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 0 h 22 m | Show | |
The RSM Classic takes place at the Sea Island Resort in Georgia. This event will take place on two courses for the first two days. The Plantation course is consists of 7062 yards with a par of 72. The Seaside course — which will also serve as the weekend course — is a par 70 course consisting of 7005. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping the professionals are the following: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shot-Gained: Putting on Bermuda Greens; Shots-Gained: Par 4 (400-450 yards) — eight holes on this course of this length. |
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11-12-20 | Patrick Cantlay v. Dustin Johnson -140 | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
The 84th Masters takes place for the first time in November this year given the cancellation of this event in April due to COVID. The weather this weekend will be similar to early April in Augusta — but rain and potential thunderstorms are possible for at least Thursday. The Augusta National Golf Course is a par-72 event consisting of 7475 yards. The putting surface is Penn bentgrass. The event this year will have 29 golfers. No patrons will be allowed inside due to COVID restrictions. While distance off the tee box helps, Augusta National is still considered to be a critical test for second shots. |
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11-12-20 | Brooks Koepka +100 v. Patrick Cantlay | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
The 84th Masters takes place for the first time in November this year given the cancellation of this event in April due to COVID. The weather this weekend will be similar to early April in Augusta — but rain and potential thunderstorms are possible for at least Thursday. The Augusta National Golf Course is a par-72 event consisting of 7475 yards. The putting surface is Penn bentgrass. The event this year will have 29 golfers. No patrons will be allowed inside due to COVID restrictions. While distance off the tee box helps, Augusta National is still considered to be a critical test for second shots.
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11-12-20 | Tommy Fleetwood v. Bubba Watson -125 | 71-74 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The 84th Masters takes place for the first time in November this year given the cancellation of this event in April due to COVID. The weather this weekend will be similar to early April in Augusta — but rain and potential thunderstorms are possible for at least Thursday. The Augusta National Golf Course is a par-72 event consisting of 7475 yards. The putting surface is Penn bentgrass. The event this year will have 29 golfers. No patrons will be allowed inside due to COVID restrictions. While distance off the tee box helps, Augusta National is still considered to be a critical test for second shots. |
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09-17-20 | Billy Horschel v. Xander Schauffele -175 | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
The US Open takes place at the Winged Foot Country Club in Mamaroneck, New York. Winged Foot hosted the 2006 US Open where both Colin Montgomerie and Phil Mickelson blew up with a pair of double bogeys to hand the championship to Geoff Ogilvy. He won with a score of five-over-par which was the last time the winner of one of the four major tournaments finished above par. That event also saw the professionals average just 1.8 birdies per round which is the lowest number at a major in the last fourteen years. Bogey-Avoidance will be one of the key metrics to consider when handicapping this event. Scrambling is also important — Oglivy along with the top-three runner-ups all excelled in this metric in 2006 here. Ogilvy was just 119th in the field that week in Driving Accuracy so that is not a metric that I will be privileging. Length off the tee will be helpful with this course consisting of 7469 yards which will make it the 5th longest US Open in its history. This Par-70 tournament will require the professionals to use all fourteen of their clubs. Narrow fairways are a defining feature of Winged Foot. The rough will be a big challenge as per normal at US Opens as well. Golfers missing the fairway will immediately be confronted with rough that will likely be three to four inches thick. And without a crowd forming a gallery around each hole, the pros will not be bailed out by matted-down grass from sitting fans. Seven of the Par-4 holes are 467 yards or longer. Three of the Par-3s are at least 210 yards. The conventional wisdom is that ball-striking will be critical this week — so assessing metrics like Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green will be important. Yet with the fairways so narrow, banking on golfers always finding the short grass may be Fool’s Gold. There may be value in considering the bigger hitters since if everyone is going to be in the rough, at least being closer to the green will be of benefit. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee will be a metric I consider. Putting will also play a critical role this week. The greens will consist of a Poa Annua/Bentgrass blend at an 80/20% ratio. The stimpmeter reads at 13 feet so these will be fast greens. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +1400 to win the US Open at Bovada. Schauffele finished in second place at the Tour Championship two weeks ago while beating the field with the low-score through 72 holes (but losing to Dustin Johnson due to the six-stroke lead to start the event given the FedEx point standing difference). Schauffele won the Tour Championship in 2017 and he finished a solid 10th place at the PGA Championship earlier this year. Schauffele has the skills to excel at Winged Foot. He was 8th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee for 2019-20 while ranking 4th in that metric over his last twenty-four rounds. He was 4th in Bogey Avoidance last season while leading the field in that category over his last twenty-four rounds. Schauffele was also 7th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 3rd in Shots-Gained: Total. Important for this week, Schauffele was also 2nd on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Scrambling. He also ranks 8th in the field this week in putting performance on Poa Annua over the last two seasons. Schauffele has a record of consistent excellence at US Opens where he has finished T-5, T-6, and T-3 over the last three years. In his last twelve major championships, Schauffele has eight top-20 finishes and six top-ten results. Schauffele is linked with Billy Horschel for Round One betting propositions for Thursday. Horschel finished tied for 13th at the Memorial Tournament but he was just tied for 33rd at the BMW Championship in the other most difficult course since the restart. He comes off a 30th place finish at the Tour Championship two weeks ago. He was just 66th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last season — but it is his 114th ranking in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green that is particularly troublesome for him given the rough he will face this week. Take Schauffele (7628) in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One versus Horschel (7627). Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
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09-17-20 | Phil Mickelson v. Jon Rahm -225 | 79-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
The US Open takes place at the Winged Foot Country Club in Mamaroneck, New York. Winged Foot hosted the 2006 US Open where both Colin Montgomerie and Phil Mickelson blew up with a pair of double bogeys to hand the championship to Geoff Ogilvy. He won with a score of five-over-par which was the last time the winner of one of the four major tournaments finished above par. That event also saw the professionals average just 1.8 birdies per round which is the lowest number at a major in the last fourteen years. Bogey-Avoidance will be one of the key metrics to consider when handicapping this event. Scrambling is also important — Oglivy along with the top-three runner-ups all excelled in this metric in 2006 here. Ogilvy was just 119th in the field that week in Driving Accuracy so that is not a metric that I will be privileging. Length off the tee will be helpful with this course consisting of 7469 yards which will make it the 5th longest US Open in its history. This Par-70 tournament will require the professionals to use all fourteen of their clubs. Narrow fairways are a defining feature of Winged Foot. The rough will be a big challenge as per normal at US Opens as well. Golfers missing the fairway will immediately be confronted with rough that will likely be three to four inches thick. And without a crowd forming a gallery around each hole, the pros will not be bailed out by matted-down grass from sitting fans. Seven of the Par-4 holes are 467 yards or longer. Three of the Par-3s are at least 210 yards. The conventional wisdom is that ball-striking will be critical this week — so assessing metrics like Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green will be important. Yet with the fairways so narrow, banking on golfers always finding the short grass may be Fool’s Gold. There may be value in considering the bigger hitters since if everyone is going to be in the rough, at least being closer to the green will be of benefit. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee will be a metric I consider. Putting will also play a critical role this week. The greens will consist of a Poa Annua/Bentgrass blend at an 80/20% ratio. The stimpmeter reads at 13 feet so these will be fast greens. |
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09-17-20 | Tommy Fleetwood -130 v. Abraham Ancer | 74-71 | Loss | -130 | 1 h 0 m | Show | |
The US Open takes place at the Winged Foot Country Club in Mamaroneck, New York. Winged Foot hosted the 2006 US Open where both Colin Montgomerie and Phil Mickelson blew up with a pair of double bogeys to hand the championship to Geoff Ogilvy. He won with a score of five-over-par which was the last time the winner of one of the four major tournaments finished above par. That event also saw the professionals average just 1.8 birdies per round which is the lowest number at a major in the last fourteen years. Bogey-Avoidance will be one of the key metrics to consider when handicapping this event. Scrambling is also important — Oglivy along with the top-three runner-ups all excelled in this metric in 2006 here. Ogilvy was just 119th in the field that week in Driving Accuracy so that is not a metric that I will be privileging. Length off the tee will be helpful with this course consisting of 7469 yards which will make it the 5th longest US Open in its history. This Par-70 tournament will require the professionals to use all fourteen of their clubs. Narrow fairways are a defining feature of Winged Foot. The rough will be a big challenge as per normal at US Opens as well. Golfers missing the fairway will immediately be confronted with rough that will likely be three to four inches thick. And without a crowd forming a gallery around each hole, the pros will not be bailed out by matted-down grass from sitting fans. Seven of the Par-4 holes are 467 yards or longer. Three of the Par-3s are at least 210 yards. The conventional wisdom is that ball-striking will be critical this week — so assessing metrics like Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green will be important. Yet with the fairways so narrow, banking on golfers always finding the short grass may be Fool’s Gold. There may be value in considering the bigger hitters since if everyone is going to be in the rough, at least being closer to the green will be of benefit. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee will be a metric I consider. Putting will also play a critical role this week. The greens will consist of a Poa Annua/Bentgrass blend at an 80/20% ratio. The stimpmeter reads at 13 feet so these will be fast greens. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +3300 to win the US Open according to Bovada. Fleetwood would usually have shorter odds for this tournament but he was not in top form this summer with his best result on the PGA Tour being his tie for 29th place at the PGA Championship. But the encouraging aspect to Fleetwood’s game is that he comes off a tie for 3rd place at the Portugal Master’s last week which he attended to work on getting back his strong ball-striking fundamentals. Mission accomplished as his Tee-to-Green irons were outstanding last week in an event that culminated with him shooting seven-under par in the final round. Fleetwood was in contention at the PGA Championship before a disappointing Sunday effort. But he has the top-end skills to win this event. He made the cut at all twelve of the major championships he has competed at since the US Open in 2017 where he finished in 4th place. He also finished in 2nd place at the 2018 US Open. Fleetwood is linked with Abraham Ancer for Round One betting propositions this week. Ancer comes off a tie for 18th place at the Tour Championship but he does tend to struggle at the most challenging tournaments. He was tied for 58th place at The Memorial and tied for 33rd place at the BMW Championship. Ancer is solid in most aspects of his game — but he does not excel at one particular skill set. He ranked just 42nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2019-20. More worrisome this week, he ranked only 45th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green which could be trouble if and when he gets into the rough. Take Fleetwood (7523) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Ancer (7524). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
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09-04-20 | Daniel Berger -160 v. Harris English | 0-1 | Loss | -160 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour Championship takes place at the East Lake Country Club on the east side of Atlanta. This is a Donald Ross-designed course consisting of 7346 yards for a Par-70 setup. The putting surface is Bermuda grass which will register a fast thirteen feet on the stimpmeter. The format is unique this week with PGA wanting to ensure that the winner of this event also is awarded the FedEx championship for the season — so starting scores are staggered to account for the current standings. Dustin Johnson tees off today with the assigned score of 10-under par with Jon Rahm behind him with the assigned score of 8-under par. The remaining twenty-eight golfers competing this week are assigned descending scores based on their FedEx points. There should be distinct betting options available that distinguishes between “winning the tournament” and winning the 72-stroke play “without the starting score.” I will specify which bets I like with each of the three golfers profiled in this Report. East Lake plays short — so big hitters off the tee are not at an advantage. Instead, ball-striking will be critical this week — and I will be privileging those metrics in handicapping this event. |
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09-04-20 | Webb Simpson -185 v. Rory McIlroy | 0-1 | Loss | -185 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour Championship takes place at the East Lake Country Club on the east side of Atlanta. This is a Donald Ross-designed course consisting of 7346 yards for a Par-70 setup. The putting surface is Bermuda grass which will register a fast thirteen feet on the stimpmeter. The format is unique this week with PGA wanting to ensure that the winner of this event also is awarded the FedEx championship for the season — so starting scores are staggered to account for the current standings. Dustin Johnson tees off today with the assigned score of 10-under par with Jon Rahm behind him with the assigned score of 8-under par. The remaining twenty-eight golfers competing this week are assigned descending scores based on their FedEx points. There should be distinct betting options available that distinguishes between “winning the tournament” and winning the 72-stroke play “without the starting score.” I will specify which bets I like with each of the three golfers profiled in this Report. East Lake plays short — so big hitters off the tee are not at an advantage. Instead, ball-striking will be critical this week — and I will be privileging those metrics in handicapping this event. |
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09-04-20 | Brendon Todd +135 v. Sungjae Im | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 50 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour Championship takes place at the East Lake Country Club on the east side of Atlanta. This is a Donald Ross-designed course consisting of 7346 yards for a Par-70 setup. The putting surface is Bermuda grass which will register a fast thirteen feet on the stimpmeter. The format is unique this week with PGA wanting to ensure that the winner of this event also is awarded the FedEx championship for the season — so starting scores are staggered to account for the current standings. Dustin Johnson tees off today with the assigned score of 10-under par with Jon Rahm behind him with the assigned score of 8-under par. The remaining twenty-eight golfers competing this week are assigned descending scores based on their FedEx points. There should be distinct betting options available that distinguishes between “winning the tournament” and winning the 72-stroke play “without the starting score.” I will specify which bets I like with each of the three golfers profiled in this Report. East Lake plays short — so big hitters off the tee are not at an advantage. Instead, ball-striking will be critical this week — and I will be privileging those metrics in handicapping this event. |
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08-27-20 | Collin Morikawa -130 v. Jason Day | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
The second leg of the FedEx playoffs moves to the Olympic Field Country Club outside Chicago for the PGA BMW Championship. This is a big course consisting of 7366 yards. This Par-70 course features a Par-5 hole of 606 yards. The professionals will get plenty of use out of their drivers along with their long and midrange irons. The putting surface is Bent Poa grass. Most of the players this week will not have much experience at this course with the last professional event taking place here seventeen years ago for a US Open. There also was a US Amateur that took place here in 2015 that a handful of the pros competed at. Some of the metrics I will be privileging this week include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Bogey Avoidance, Greens-In-Regulation, and, as always, Shot-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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08-27-20 | Harris English -120 v. Tyrrell Hatton | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
The second leg of the FedEx playoffs moves to the Olympic Field Country Club outside Chicago for the PGA BMW Championship. This is a big course consisting of 7366 yards. This Par-70 course features a Par-5 hole of 606 yards. The professionals will get plenty of use out of their drivers along with their long and midrange irons. The putting surface is Bent Poa grass. Most of the players this week will not have much experience at this course with the last professional event taking place here seventeen years ago for a US Open. There also was a US Amateur that took place here in 2015 that a handful of the pros competed at. Some of the metrics I will be privileging this week include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Bogey Avoidance, Greens-In-Regulation, and, as always, Shot-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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08-27-20 | Jon Rahm v. Bryson DeChambeau +130 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
The second leg of the FedEx playoffs moves to the Olympic Field Country Club outside Chicago for the PGA BMW Championship. This is a big course consisting of 7366 yards. This Par-70 course features a Par-5 hole of 606 yards. The professionals will get plenty of use out of their drivers along with their long and midrange irons. The putting surface is Bent Poa grass. Most of the players this week will not have much experience at this course with the last professional event taking place here seventeen years ago for a US Open. There also was a US Amateur that took place here in 2015 that a handful of the pros competed at. Some of the metrics I will be privileging this week include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Bogey Avoidance, Greens-In-Regulation, and, as always, Shot-Gained: Tee-to-Green. |
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08-20-20 | Justin Thomas -113 v. Jon Rahm | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 1 h 52 m | Show | |
The first leg of the three-event PGA FedEx Playoffs takes place this week with the PGA The Northern Trust at the TPC Boston in Northern, Massachusetts. The Northern Trust rotates its location for the FedEx Playoffs — the event was last played here in 2018 as the Dell Technologies Championship. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7342 yards. Over the last eight tournaments here, the winning score has ranged from 15 under par to 22 under par. The last three winners here were Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy who are all big hitters. The fairways are wide with two reachable Par-5 holes so it is not a surprise that the pros who are long off the tee have success here. The greens are Bentgrass that usually measure over 12 feet on the stimptmeter so they are considered fast. Shots-Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Percentage, Ball Striking, Greens-in-Regulation, Proximity from 175 yards out, and Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee has been metrics that help define who excels at this tournament. Our Best Bet to win this event is on Justin Thomas who is listed at +1400 at Bovada. Thomas is ranked 2nd in the world while entering this event as the points leader in the FedEx standings. He has won three times this season with his most recent victory being three weeks ago at World Golf Championships at the FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He should be feisty this week after a disappointing tie for 37th place two weeks ago at the PGA Championship. Thomas’ game is a great fit for TPC Boston. Not only does he lead the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green but he also leads in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and Par-5 Birdies or Better. Additionally, Thomas is 3rd on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage overall and 7th in Proximity to the Hole from 75 to 150 yards out. Thomas also thrives when putting on Bentgrass as he ranks 2nd on this putting surface of the field since 2018 and he is also ranked 2nd this week when putting on fast greens. Thomas won this event in 2017 at TPC Boston which eventually led to him winning the Tour Championship that season. He claims to love this course. And he will have something to prove this year after failing to win the Tour Championship last year after leading the field in the points standings as well to begin the event. Thomas is linked with Jon Rahm in head-to-head propositions for the tournament. Rahm moved to number one in the world after winning The Memorial tournament last month — but I worry about his ability to close out on Sundays in major events like this despite that victory. He was just in 52nd place the next week at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude before a tie for 13th place at the PGA Championship. He trails Thomas in some of the key metrics: he is 7th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and just 53rd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He is also only 33rd in Greens-in-Regulation and 13th in Birdies or Better Percentage. Rahm was tied for 4th place here in his debut in 2017 but he will be at an experience disadvantage at this course when compared to Thomas. Take Thomas (7061) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Rahm (7062) for the tournament. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
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08-20-20 | Xander Schauffele v. Collin Morikawa +115 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 0 h 28 m | Show | |
The first leg of the three-event PGA FedEx Playoffs takes place this week with the PGA The Northern Trust at the TPC Boston in Northern, Massachusetts. The Northern Trust rotates its location for the FedEx Playoffs — the event was last played here in 2018 as the Dell Technologies Championship. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7342 yards. Over the last eight tournaments here, the winning score has ranged from 15 under par to 22 under par. The last three winners here were Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy who are all big hitters. The fairways are wide with two reachable Par-5 holes so it is not a surprise that the pros who are long off the tee have success here. The greens are Bentgrass that usually measure over 12 feet on the stimptmeter so they are considered fast. Shots-Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Percentage, Ball Striking, Greens-in-Regulation, Proximity from 175 yards out, and Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee has been metrics that help define who excels at this tournament. |
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08-20-20 | Billy Horschel -160 v. Joaquin Niemann | 73-68 | Loss | -160 | 0 h 6 m | Show | |
The first leg of the three-event PGA FedEx Playoffs takes place this week with the PGA The Northern Trust at the TPC Boston in Northern, Massachusetts. The Northern Trust rotates its location for the FedEx Playoffs — the event was last played here in 2018 as the Dell Technologies Championship. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7342 yards. Over the last eight tournaments here, the winning score has ranged from 15 under par to 22 under par. The last three winners here were Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy who are all big hitters. The fairways are wide with two reachable Par-5 holes so it is not a surprise that the pros who are long off the tee have success here. The greens are Bentgrass that usually measure over 12 feet on the stimptmeter so they are considered fast. Shots-Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Percentage, Ball Striking, Greens-in-Regulation, Proximity from 175 yards out, and Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee has been metrics that help define who excels at this tournament. |
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08-13-20 | Paul Casey -115 v. Patrick Reed | 67-65 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves from last week’s first major of the year with the PGA CThe PGA Tour moves from last week’s first major of the year with the PGA Championship in San Francisco to the Wyndham Championship at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Donald Ross-designed course consisting of just 7127 yards. This is a Par-70 event with 52 bunkers and five water hazards protecting the greens. Big hitters will not have an advantage this week — Henrik Stenson won this tournament in 2017 without getting out his driver. This was graded as the 12th easiest course to score on last year with it seeing the 8th most Eagles and the 4th most Birdies. J.T. Poston won the tournament last year while leading the field in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. The two previous winners here in the top-three in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — so that will be a metric I will be privileging this week. Driving Accuracy Off-the-Tee is another metric that helps to gauge success on this course. The putting surface is Bermuda grass. |
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08-13-20 | Andrew Landry v. Corey Conners -110 | 66-69 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves from last week’s first major of the year with the PGA Championship in San Francisco to the Wyndham Championship at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Donald Ross-designed course consisting of just 7127 yards. This is a Par-70 event with 52 bunkers and five water hazards protecting the greens. Big hitters will not have an advantage this week — Henrik Stenson won this tournament in 2017 without getting out his driver. This was graded as the 12th easiest course to score on last year with it seeing the 8th most Eagles and the 4th most Birdies. J.T. Poston won the tournament last year while leading the field in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. The two previous winners here in the top-three in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — so that will be a metric I will be privileging this week. Driving Accuracy Off-the-Tee is another metric that helps to gauge success on this course. The putting surface is Bermuda grass. |
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08-13-20 | Webb Simpson -144 v. Brendon Todd | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves from last week’s first major of the year with the PGA CThe PGA Tour moves from last week’s first major of the year with the PGA Championship in San Francisco to the Wyndham Championship at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Donald Ross-designed course consisting of just 7127 yards. This is a Par-70 event with 52 bunkers and five water hazards protecting the greens. Big hitters will not have an advantage this week — Henrik Stenson won this tournament in 2017 without getting out his driver. This was graded as the 12th easiest course to score on last year with it seeing the 8th most Eagles and the 4th most Birdies. J.T. Poston won the tournament last year while leading the field in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. The two previous winners here in the top-three in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — so that will be a metric I will be privileging this week. Driving Accuracy Off-the-Tee is another metric that helps to gauge success on this course. The putting surface is Bermuda grass. |
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08-06-20 | Ian Poulter v. Webb Simpson -170 | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
The first major championship for 2020 takes place this week with the PGA Championship at TPC Harding in San Francisco. This will be an unfamiliar course for many of the competitors this week. The President’s Cup took place here in 2009 before a WGC Match Play event in 2015. TPC Harding is located about a mile off from the Pacific Ocean so the wind blowing off the water will produce fairly chilly temperatures in the 50s and 60s. The thick sea-level air will take 10 to 15 yards off the ball movement in the air. This is a Par-70 course consisting of 7234 yards with two Par-5s and seven Par-4s of at least 460 yards. Narrow fairways will challenge the professionals coming off the tee with the golfers limited to just 22 yards of the small grass as compared to the typical 30 or so yards of fairway width. The rough starts at 3.5 inches this week with Cypress trees also protecting the fairway and punishing wayward drives. Bentgrass putting surfaces on greens will average 7000 square feet in size with the stimpmeter measuring a pretty brisk 12.5 feet. Driving Distance, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Shots-Gained: Approach will be three of the metrics I will be privileging in handicapping the golfers who should perform well on this course. Fairways Hit, Scrambling, and Bogey Avoidance are three other metrics I will be looking at closely with the expectation that scoring will be difficult this week. |
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08-06-20 | Rickie Fowler v. Bryson DeChambeau -135 | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
The first major championship for 2020 takes place this week with the PGA Championship at TPC Harding in San Francisco. This will be an unfamiliar course for many of the competitors this week. The President’s Cup took place here in 2009 before a WGC Match Play event in 2015. TPC Harding is located about a mile off from the Pacific Ocean so the wind blowing off the water will produce fairly chilly temperatures in the 50s and 60s. The thick sea-level air will take 10 to 15 yards off the ball movement in the air. This is a Par-70 course consisting of 7234 yards with two Par-5s and seven Par-4s of at least 460 yards. Narrow fairways will challenge the professionals coming off the tee with the golfers limited to just 22 yards of the small grass as compared to the typical 30 or so yards of fairway width. The rough starts at 3.5 inches this week with Cypress trees also protecting the fairway and punishing wayward drives. Bentgrass putting surfaces on greens will average 7000 square feet in size with the stimpmeter measuring a pretty brisk 12.5 feet. Driving Distance, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Shots-Gained: Approach will be three of the metrics I will be privileging in handicapping the golfers who should perform well on this course. Fairways Hit, Scrambling, and Bogey Avoidance are three other metrics I will be looking at closely with the expectation that scoring will be difficult this week. |
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08-06-20 | Tyrrell Hatton -135 v. Jordan Spieth | 0-1 | Loss | -135 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
The first major championship for 2020 takes place this week with the PGA Championship at TPC Harding in San Francisco. This will be an unfamiliar course for many of the competitors this week. The President’s Cup took place here in 2009 before a WGC Match Play event in 2015. TPC Harding is located about a mile off from the Pacific Ocean so the wind blowing off the water will produce fairly chilly temperatures in the 50s and 60s. The thick sea-level air will take 10 to 15 yards off the ball movement in the air. This is a Par-70 course consisting of 7234 yards with two Par-5s and seven Par-4s of at least 460 yards. Narrow fairways will challenge the professionals coming off the tee with the golfers limited to just 22 yards of the small grass as compared to the typical 30 or so yards of fairway width. The rough starts at 3.5 inches this week with Cypress trees also protecting the fairway and punishing wayward drives. Bentgrass putting surfaces on greens will average 7000 square feet in size with the stimpmeter measuring a pretty brisk 12.5 feet. Driving Distance, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Shots-Gained: Approach will be three of the metrics I will be privileging in handicapping the golfers who should perform well on this course. Fairways Hit, Scrambling, and Bogey Avoidance are three other metrics I will be looking at closely with the expectation that scoring will be difficult this week. |
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07-30-20 | Tyrrell Hatton -135 v. Dustin Johnson | 72-69 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
The World Golf Championships returns to TPC Southland in Memphis, Tennessee for the second-straight year with this site being the location for the FedEx St. Jude Invitational for three decades. For the WGC partnership, this tournament usually was the week before the US Open — the change of date to accommodate the World Golf Championship has seen a substantial bump in the quality of players taking part in the event. The course is a Par-70 consisting of 7277 yards. Seven of the twelve Par-4s are a long 450 to 500 yards. Water protects almost half the holes. The greens are relatively small consisting of bermudagrass. Bad weather is on the horizon for Memphis for the next four days with high winds expected throughout the weekend. Brooks Koepka won this event last year — the last two winners here ended the season ranked in the top-eleven in Driving Distance. The last four winners at TPC Southland have also finished in the top-five in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — so that is a metric I will be privileging when handicapping the field. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Birdies Percentage, Adjusted Scoring, and Total Driving are a few more metrics that have pointed to success at this tournament. |
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07-30-20 | Bryson DeChambeau -157 v. Rickie Fowler | 67-64 | Loss | -157 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
The World Golf Championships returns to TPC Southland in Memphis, Tennessee for the second-straight year with this site being the location for the FedEx St. Jude Invitational for three decades. For the WGC partnership, this tournament usually was the week before the US Open — the change of date to accommodate the World Golf Championship has seen a substantial bump in the quality of players taking part in the event. The course is a Par-70 consisting of 7277 yards. Seven of the twelve Par-4s are a long 450 to 500 yards. Water protects almost half the holes. The greens are relatively small consisting of bermudagrass. Bad weather is on the horizon for Memphis for the next four days with high winds expected throughout the weekend. Brooks Koepka won this event last year — the last two winners here ended the season ranked in the top-eleven in Driving Distance. The last four winners at TPC Southland have also finished in the top-five in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — so that is a metric I will be privileging when handicapping the field. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Birdies Percentage, Adjusted Scoring, and Total Driving are a few more metrics that have pointed to success at this tournament. |
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07-30-20 | Tommy Fleetwood -155 v. Dustin Johnson | 0-1 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
The World Golf Championships returns to TPC Southland in Memphis, Tennessee for the second-straight year with this site being the location for the FedEx St. Jude Invitational for three decades. For the WGC partnership, this tournament usually was the week before the US Open — the change of date to accommodate the World Golf Championship has seen a substantial bump in the quality of players taking part in the event. The course is a Par-70 consisting of 7277 yards. Seven of the twelve Par-4s are a long 450 to 500 yards. Water protects almost half the holes. The greens are relatively small consisting of bermudagrass. Bad weather is on the horizon for Memphis for the next four days with high winds expected throughout the weekend. Brooks Koepka won this event last year — the last two winners here ended the season ranked in the top-eleven in Driving Distance. The last four winners at TPC Southland have also finished in the top-five in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — so that is a metric I will be privileging when handicapping the field. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Birdies Percentage, Adjusted Scoring, and Total Driving are a few more metrics that have pointed to success at this tournament. |
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07-23-20 | Jhonattan Vegas -125 v. Charley Hoffman | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
The 3M Open is in its second year of existence at the TPC Twin Cities after rookie Matthew Wolff won this event last year with his 21-under par. This is a Par-71 course that is 7431 yards that have been enhanced and modified by Tom Lehman. This tournament played as the fourteenth easiest relative to par while seeing the most birdies on last year’s tour and the 7th most eagles. The average score last year was 69.455 with the 36-hole cut line taking place at -3 under par. To make this course a bit more challenging, Lehman and his team cut the fairways in on five of the holes while making some adjustments on shortening a few hole lengths and thinking with the bunkers. The 156 professionals registered for this event will content with three-inch rough, 72 bunkers, and 27 water hazards. Bentgrass greens averaging 6500 square feet in size will be what the putting surfaces have to offer with a brisk 13-foot stimpmeter reading (with 12-foot being average speed and 14-foot stimpmeter being Augusta National comparable). It is informative to analyze Wolff’s winning profile from last year. Wolff was 5th that week in Driving Distance while also ranking tied for 31st in Fairways Hit. Wolff was also 6th in Greens-In-Regulation and led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Wolff was also 3rd in Par-Breakers and tied for 25th in Bogey Avoidance. Looking deeper at last year’s numbers, a few other deeper metrics appear a good harbinger for success at this course. At first glance, this would seem to be a course that rewards big hitters given the hefty distance of over 7400 yards. The top-seven pros in Driving Distance last year ended up in the top-fifteen. But going deeper, the players that measured well in Total Driving and Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee tended to score better — with the logic being that the most important factor off the tee is avoiding the water or sand while getting good heft behind the ball. Putting: Birdies or Better was also a metric that helps separate the golfers with the better scores last year. |
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07-23-20 | Lucas Glover -133 v. Troy Merritt | 73-73 | Push | 0 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
The 3M Open is in its second year of existence at the TPC Twin Cities after rookie Matthew Wolff won this event last year with his 21-under par. This is a Par-71 course that is 7431 yards that have been enhanced and modified by Tom Lehman. This tournament played as the fourteenth easiest relative to par while seeing the most birdies on last year’s tour and the 7th most eagles. The average score last year was 69.455 with the 36-hole cut line taking place at -3 under par. To make this course a bit more challenging, Lehman and his team cut the fairways in on five of the holes while making some adjustments on shortening a few hole lengths and thinking with the bunkers. The 156 professionals registered for this event will content with three-inch rough, 72 bunkers, and 27 water hazards. Bentgrass greens averaging 6500 square feet in size will be what the putting surfaces have to offer with a brisk 13-foot stimpmeter reading (with 12-foot being average speed and 14-foot stimpmeter being Augusta National comparable). It is informative to analyze Wolff’s winning profile from last year. Wolff was 5th that week in Driving Distance while also ranking tied for 31st in Fairways Hit. Wolff was also 6th in Greens-In-Regulation and led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Wolff was also 3rd in Par-Breakers and tied for 25th in Bogey Avoidance. Looking deeper at last year’s numbers, a few other deeper metrics appear a good harbinger for success at this course. At first glance, this would seem to be a course that rewards big hitters given the hefty distance of over 7400 yards. The top-seven pros in Driving Distance last year ended up in the top-fifteen. But going deeper, the players that measured well in Total Driving and Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee tended to score better — with the logic being that the most important factor off the tee is avoiding the water or sand while getting good heft behind the ball. Putting: Birdies or Better was also a metric that helps separate the golfers with the better scores last year. |
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07-23-20 | Matthew Wolff v. Paul Casey -160 | 1-0 | Loss | -160 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
The 3M Open is in its second year of existence at the TPC Twin Cities after rookie Matthew Wolff won this event last year with his 21-under par. This is a Par-71 course that is 7431 yards that have been enhanced and modified by Tom Lehman. This tournament played as the fourteenth easiest relative to par while seeing the most birdies on last year’s tour and the 7th most eagles. The average score last year was 69.455 with the 36-hole cut line taking place at -3 under par. To make this course a bit more challenging, Lehman and his team cut the fairways in on five of the holes while making some adjustments on shortening a few hole lengths and thinking with the bunkers. The 156 professionals registered for this event will content with three-inch rough, 72 bunkers, and 27 water hazards. Bentgrass greens averaging 6500 square feet in size will be what the putting surfaces have to offer with a brisk 13-foot stimpmeter reading (with 12-foot being average speed and 14-foot stimpmeter being Augusta National comparable). It is informative to analyze Wolff’s winning profile from last year. Wolff was 5th that week in Driving Distance while also ranking tied for 31st in Fairways Hit. Wolff was also 6th in Greens-In-Regulation and led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Wolff was also 3rd in Par-Breakers and tied for 25th in Bogey Avoidance. Looking deeper at last year’s numbers, a few other deeper metrics appear a good harbinger for success at this course. At first glance, this would seem to be a course that rewards big hitters given the hefty distance of over 7400 yards. The top-seven pros in Driving Distance last year ended up in the top-fifteen. But going deeper, the players that measured well in Total Driving and Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee tended to score better — with the logic being that the most important factor off the tee is avoiding the water or sand while getting good heft behind the ball. Putting: Birdies or Better was also a metric that helps separate the golfers with the better scores last year. |
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