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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 20 m | Show |
Great situational spot for the home team. Bills got embarrassed by the Jets on prime time and the Saints just beat the Bucs straight up. So it’s a natural reaction that the Saints open as -2 favs at Buffalo and the line absolutely makes sense. However, I think this is a great spot to take the Bills in a decent matchup off extra rest vs a dome team in low temps around 30. Sell high spot for the Saints off games vs Hundley, Trubisky and Winston/Fitzpatrick. Tidbit: Drew Brees is 0-6-1 ATS in games with temps lower than 40 degrees. The Saints have the best matchup against teams that struggle to run the ball. They wanna jump out to a lead, milk the clock and give their good pass defense opportunities to make plays. First of all, it’s not easy to take a lead at Buffalo and secondly, the Bills are a run-first team that is able to stun the Saints and their only weakness on the ground. I am expecting a huge game by LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor on the ground. The Bills get two important players back, CB EJ Gaines and TE Charles Clay. Gaines helps tremendously because he is a very underrated corner. Clay helps a lot as a receiving threat underneath because the Bills obviously aren’t stacked at WR, but will see Kelvin Benjamin make his debut. It’s save to assume that the Bills aren’t going to shut the Saints offense down, but I dont expect the Saints to move the ball easily at Buffalo. Sean McDermott spent years in the NFC South and he knows these offenses in and out. They already beat the Bucs and Falcons and were an end zone drop away from beating the Panthers at Carolina. Buffalo Bills +3 |
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11-12-17 | Chargers +4 v. Jaguars | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
The Chargers come off their bye week playing against a hot Jaguars team that has been able to mask their weaknesses. LAC were unlucky at New England – they had two touchdowns come back because of stupid penalties. Those drives returned in zero points. I think this is a talented team that still has some wild card hopes. They get Denzel Perryman back from IR, their starting Mike which is an upgrade. I expect the Chargers to use their bye week to focus on their run defense because that’s pretty much the only weakness that can be fixed quite a bit on the Chargers team. The Jaguars want to pound the ball and mix in some PA, jump a lead and let their defense win the rest of the game. As soon as a team jumps a lead on them, the Jags are in jeopardy because their offense has to function out of structure. They aren’t build to beat teams through the air when the opponent knows what’s coming. Bortles looks solid this season when he doesn’t have pressure. On most of his successful passes he doesn’t need to throw into tight windows or throw someone open. He basically hits open receivers off of play action a lot. Versus the Bengals he wasn’t good but the Jags were successful on early downs so that he didn’t need to force anything. He still had some terrible throws and dropped picks. The Jags are 5-0 when they had a close score long enough or jumped a lead. In their 3 losses, defenses didn’t let them pull away. I think the Chargers defense has enough potential to keep this one close early on, even though we are expecting the Jaguars to be quite successful on the ground and a big advantage is that ex- Jags HC Gus Bradley is their DC. He will put in the extra hours to make his defense shine. LAC has a talented corner group with Hayward and Williams ranking and they are very good against TE's which will contain the Jags secret weapon Mercedes Lewis. On offense the Chargers have a QB who is good for 3 picks twice a season but also one of the best when throwing from condensed pockets and you need that unique attribute when playing vs this Jaguars DL. Gordon could see a couple breakout runs against one of the worst defenses in the league. I believe that the Chargers have the potential and the situation to keep this game close against a team that needs a certain game script to be successful. If the Chargers score the first touchdown, the +4 has a great shot of hitting. San Diego Chargers +4 |
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11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 18 m | Show |
This is probably the best situational spot on the board. The Lions come off a big win at Lambeau and have two divisional games vs the Bears and Vikings on deck. In between they play vs the lowly Browns. Cleveland come off their bye week and get a great price here at +11.5. Winless teams in week 6 or later are 26-8 ATS off their bye week. Teams with 0 or 1 wins are 80-50 ATS. The Vikings game at London was interesting to watch because Hue finally put Kizer in a position to succeed. He responded with some great plays under pressure against a great defense. Hue Jackson constantly asked Kizer to throw aggressively downfield to WR's like Kenny Britt and Ricardo Louis. Getting Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman back could completely alter this offense. The Browns have a good run game and two versatile RB's who weren’t used properly overall until the Vikes game. This week they get Garrett, Peppers and McCourty back. McCourty and Garrett are great additions to this pass defense especially this week. The Lions rank 32nd in rush offense, rushing for just 3.2 yards per carry. They won’t be able to run on the Browns so they gotta need to get their offense going simply via the pass so they will be highly predictable on offense. Their pass offense has been on fire the past three weeks, but given the spot and long third downs, they could be forced into some mistakes which should help the Browns keeping this game close. A good way to attack the Browns is via the TE position as they are maybe the worst at defending TE's, but the Lions don’t have a quality TE. The Lions simply need to rely on the pass and if the Browns can limit their turnovers, they have a good shot at covering double digits here. Update: Lions are likely without their best OL, T.J. Lang who was put into the concussion protocol. Cleveland Browns +11 |
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11-12-17 | Jets v. Bucs +2.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
Put everything you had in mind regarding these two teams aside for a moment. What in the world justifies to make the Jets -2.5/-3 favs on the road? This is public perception vs reality at its finest. The Jets beat the Bills in a great spot at home last week and the media has been all over it. Todd Bowles is getting Coach of the Year praises, OC Morton is talked as a sleeper head coach. This team has exceeded all expectations already, also mine. But it doesn’t justify to make them FG favs on the road. Jets have one single quality win all season, that was last week in a great spot vs a rookie HC on a short week at home. Their four road games? Lost by 9 at BUF, outgained by 194 yards. Lost by 25 at OAK, outgained by 139 yards. Lost by 3 at MIA, outgained by 85 yards. Won by 3 at CLE. The Browns game was an historical win. They got outgained by 205 yards and the Browns turned the ball over 3 times inside the Jets 5 yard line. Jets should have lost by 10+ there. Overall, they are 1-3 on the road but should be 0-4. They got outgained by a total of 623 yards in four road games. They are a bad road team. Now lets talk about the Bucs. Tampa Bay is having a season to forget. Doug Martin was suspended for the first three games, Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David missed a combined 8 games, TJ Ward has been battling injuries, Vernon Hargreaves has regressed, Jameis Winston has a shoulder injury. The thing about Winston has always been the following: He has a great arm and can make outstanding throws, but it’s rare. His accuracy is terrible, especially on deep balls in the Bucs’ vertical passing game. He consistently has mental mistakes, throwing the ball straight into triple coverage. Combined with his injury, his play has been atrocious lately. Did you hear his team speech last week? It was a clowns show. Here comes the (Fitz-)magic: Ryan Fitzpatrick is NOT a downgrade from Winston at this point. He is rather an upgrade because Koetter has to alter the Bucs offensive style as Fitz cannot throw deep. Fitzpatrick throwing to TEs and RBs underneath with DeSean drawing deep coverage is a better idea than a banged up Winston throwing deep. They are missing Mike Evans but I don’t really care. They don’t need him to win this game. Bucs will bring everything on Sunday to support Fitzpatrick vs his former team. |
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
I get the feeling that the Redskins are having one of the most brutal stretches right now. They are decimated with injuries and get to face the Hawks, Vikes off bye and the Saints. Every good passing defense is a tough matchup for the Skins and right now they play with a banged up offensive line and travel across the country to play at Seattle. The Redskins don’t have DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, they don’t have a bye to prepare and they don’t have a magic dual threat QB. They got a mediocre Kirk Cousins behind a banged up offensive line. Trent Williams will be out, Spencer Long and Brandon Scherff didn’t practice. Swing tackle Ty Nsekhe didn’t practice. Jordan Reed is 99% out. Jamison Crowder didn’t practice. Zach Brown didn’t practice. The injury report looks even more concerning than last week for the Skins. We can’t talk about metrics here because of how banged up they are. Redskins offense cannot move the ball at Seattle. It would be completely surprising to me if they scored more than 14-17 offensive points. Seattle is going to win in the trenches easily. Cousins could be picked twice and sacked five times. The Hawks offense is weird. Their play calling is reactive to the opponent and score. If the score is tight and it’s early in the quarter, they are very predictable, trying to run with a non-existing run game. Chasing a score or before half time they go crazy with play action and vertical routes. Getting Duane Brown doesn’t fix their OL or running game but it helps Wilson processing in the pocket because he doesn’t have to account for both tackles getting beaten at the snap. The passing game should improve. The Skins defense isn’t great and they also have some injuries to deal with. The Hawks shouldn’t be forced to chase a score here. They will try to get their run game going or surprise us and put the game on ice as early as possible with a TNF game on deck. I expect them to use Jimmy Graham early and often as the Skins can’t defend TE's at all. All in all they should have enough on offense and defense to beat a mediocre and banged up Skins team by more than a TD at home. Play is on the Hawks. Seeing a 27-14 kind of game. Seattle Seahawks -7 |
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11-05-17 | Cardinals v. 49ers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
I have the home side favoured by my count, yet we are getting a full field goal of dog points. I cannot expect the Cardinals to score many points with Drew Stanton. Stanton has a TD pass in only 5 of 9 career starts and Arians always tried to limit his impact. With a good running game that approach would be clever, but the Cards struggle there too. Peterson had one good game and hasn't shown he can carry the load otherwise. There is no threat going from this offense. The Niners who will be very motivated after their recent trade for a franchise QB (not playing), will have their best chance to win a game this year, however I'll play it safe with the field goal points. 49ers +3 |
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11-05-17 | Bucs v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show |
I view the Saints as -8 favorites here and thanks to some huge sharp action, this line has come down to -6.5 over Thursday. I disagree with that line and don’t see legitimate reasons for such a huge exposure on the Bucs. The Saints have a strong and dominant offense, good pass defense. These are key factors to win a lot of games and to win a lot of games by more than one possession. The Saints offense vs the Bucs defense might be the best matchup on the board this week, equal to Houston vs Indy. By metrics, the pass-heavy Bucs still have one of the better passing offenses in the NFL, but Jameis Winston is not right and they face a really good passing defense. This game is about game script. The Bucs could be successful if they go run-heavy with Doug Martin and the Saints don’t get ahead. But I see this game being played out as the Saints scoring early and then go into their lovely run-mode in the second half to see what Jameis does with a banged up shoulder against their pass defense. If the Saints score early and often against a terrible defense, they cover -6.5 here and that’s what I lean. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 75 h 38 m | Show |
I know Steelers -2.5 looks super square here, but the line is more than fair. When seeing a square road fav line I always ask if I would take the team at that price at home, switching points for Home for Away. Steelers would be -8.5/-9 at home and that’s still a reasonable line. Big Ben seems to be back. He threw some nice passes into tight windows against Cincy and didn’t hesitate at any throw. His deep pass is still an issue but with Bell being back to his form that’s not a big deal. The Steelers are at the top of my Power Rating, offense is loaded and defense is playing really good. Steelers top all the efficiency metrics. This is a boys vs men kind of game to me. After media doubted the Steelers, this is another huge statement game for them saying “We are here” on prime time. From a matchup standpoint, I don't see how the Lions prevail here other than by turnovers or weird flags. The Lions offense is non-existent. They rank 30th in yards per play at 4.6. The only offenses worse are Miami and Baltimore. Lions can’t run the ball and can’t consistently move the ball from the pocket. Stafford is at his best when the play breaks down, but that’s not sustainable. This isn’t enough to beat the Steelers. The Lions need to rely on the pass (probably without Golden Tate) against a good passing defense with a strong pass rush that ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. Against other top-10 defenses in sack rate, Minnesota and Carolina, the Lions struggled to move the ball through the air. LT Greg Robinson is bad but he might not play so expect his replacement to be even worse against young freak TJ Watt. Don't be fooled by the Lions coming off a bye, they are the clear worse team in this matchup. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 |
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10-29-17 | Chargers +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 67 h 0 m | Show |
The Chargers overcame early season struggles and are finally playing up to their potential. Lynn finally involves Henry at 80%+ snaps and the offense got more effective. Hightower being out is a huge blow for an already bad Pats defense. They can’t cover TE's and that’s where Henry is the key for the Chargers this week as they should be successful through the air and put up points. Chargers D is playing conservative and disciplined, playing a lot of zone behind a strong pass rush by their D-line and they defend TE's very well. I expect the Pats to go run heavy here because they like to attack weaknesses and they want to keep their D sidelined. However, I think the Chargers are able to pull the upset in this one as the Pats have too many issues on their D and the Chargers D has been capable of keeping games close. The highest scoring amount they gave up was 26 to Philly. Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 |
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10-29-17 | Falcons -4.5 v. Jets | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 67 h 57 m | Show |
As bad as the Falcons offense looked the last two weeks, it’s hard to believe they put up another shit show this week. Sarkisian got officially counted on, he has to change something, otherwise he will be sacked next Monday. Atlanta comes off an embarrassing prime time loss in a game everyone expected them to play like real men to get Super Bowl revenge. They failed. This is a perfect spot to put all their frustrations on the lowly Jets who have been overperforming when it comes to their record. The Jets have played an easy schedule in terms of efficiency metrics and teams being in bad spots: survived the 0-7 Browns in a magic game, blew a lead to the Jags off London to barely win in OT, blew a 14pt lead to NE (would have been a quality win though) and blew a 14pt lead to the Fins. This team has benefited from an easy schedule and I expect them to regress in terms of scores. They have a shot at losing all their remaining games from now on. In terms of metrics they rank bottom-10 across the board despite their schedule. Their defense isn't much better, all above middle of the pack averages. This is a team waiting to get beaten by the better teams in the league. Remember what a solid Raiders offense did to them. If the Falcons jump a lead which has much better chances than Jets jumping a lead, the running game gets negated to some margin in the second half which leads to McCown spreading the ball and that smells some turnovers. If Sarkisian gets his head straight, Falcons should win a 31-17 kind of game at New York. Atlanta Falcons -4.5 |
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10-29-17 | Bears +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
I know that it looks intriguing to go with the hot Saints in their Superdome against a team that won by defensive scores recently. However, this isn’t a good matchup for the Saints. Whereas their pass defense has been playing on an extremely high level since week 2, their big and probably only weakness is defending the run and the pass to RBs. And that’s where the Bears present the perfect matchup. Chicago wants to run the ball (2nd-highest percentage in the league) with slow pace, no matter if they are playing with a lead or trailing. The Saints run D ranks 30th in yards per carry. The Saints also have allowed the 5th-most receptions to RB's. This is a great matchup for the Bears who are going to attack the ground and the short field with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen all game long. They are going to slow the game down and keep themselves in winnable situations all the way. They don’t play to get blown out. On defense, they rarely get beaten by big plays. They play the pass very well and force the opponent to beat them on the ground or by short passes. This all sums up to a low scoring game which plays to the Bears strengths on running the football. Chicago Bears +9.5 |
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10-29-17 | Vikings -9.5 v. Browns | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
The Vikings look to win their fourth straight game and put a strangle hold on the NFC North when they face the winless Browns on Sunday at London’s Twickenham Stadium. The Minnesota Vikings have found a way to win despite who plays QB, meanwhile the Cleveland Browns continue to flip flop at the helm and can't find any consistency behind center. The Vikings’ defense has been terrific, holding four straight opponents under 275 total yards to rank fourth in the league in total defense. Minnesota gave up a season-low 208 yards in a 24-16 win over Baltimore last week. Now they get a shot at rookie Deshone Kizer who gets another starting chance after getting pulled and then finding himself in hot water over the late night video which surfaced last week. The Vikings also get WR Diggs back this week which should actually help their run game, forcing the Browns secondary to play soft coverage. To make matters worse for the Browns, they lose both Myles Garrett to concussion protocol and All-Pro OL Joe Thomas who's been a rock for them for years now. Browns are 7-25-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall and Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf. Note not win/loss, against the spread. Hard to imagine, but true. Minnesota Vikings -9.5 |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
This is a phenomenal buy low spot to take the Ravens. Baltimore is the home side with a strong defense on a short week against a team that is getting overpriced. The Fins have more wins than I thought they would have, but each one occured by one possession. They are a bottom three team on average by all significant metrics. They are a 2-4 team by metrics but they somehow sneaked to 4-2. Now they travel to Baltimore on a short week with a QB change. I am low on Matt Moore and there is a reason Adam Gase went with Cutler out of retirement instead of Moore. Moore consistently tries to throw games away. Last season he got away with fluky wins before exploding vs Steelers in the playoffs. The Ravens defense is really good. Their pass defense ranks 5th in DVOA and their run defense is expected to improve because their best run defender Brandon Williams was out for 4 games. At their home turf, they are going to make the job of Matt Moore and a harmless Dolphins offense who got some injuries very hard and should create turnovers. The Dolphins run offense is averaging 3.3 YPC, good for 30th in the league and 0.8 YPC below average. I don’t see how they do anything tonight. On the flip side, the Ravens offense has knowingly struggele. However, the Ravens have a better offensive matchup than the Dolphins vice versa. The Ravens offense also faced one of the toughest schedules this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw the Ravens scoring in the 24-27 range along with a defensive score. That should be enough to cover because the defense will take care of the rest. I like the Ravens to cover -3 here vs the Dolphins. Baltimore Ravens -3 |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 124 h 57 m | Show |
Super Bowl revenge! This isn’t the same Pats team most are used to seeing, especially on defense. The regression is obvious for the Falcons offense (int's & tipped int's) this year but they are still very efficient. They ran very well vs the Pats in the SB and this time they get an even worse Pats defense. Falcons should run all day and the Pats don’t have the CB's to match up well with Julio, Sanu and Gabriel. They are also giving up the 2nd most receptions and most yards to RB's, which is certainly a bad matchup vs Atlanta due to their two header monster backfield in Freeman and Coleman. The Falcons can use their full arsenal of weapons and should move the ball all day long. If they get a key stop more on offense, this 3.5 line should hit. Atlanta Falcons +3.5 |
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10-22-17 | Cowboys v. 49ers +6 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
I think this line is too high for the Cowboys even though I think they will look better during the next few weeks. CJ Beathard definitely looks quite a bit better than Brian Hoyer. His peak plays were good last week. Cowboys defense gives up tons of points, that’s why their overall scoring differential is just +1 on the season so far. Niners finally return home after a tough road stretch and even though Dallas comes off their bye, I don’t see this line to be justified. Niners didn’t get blown out since Week 1 and always hung tough. Kyle Shanahan keeps pressing the gas pedal until the last minute and even though they don’t have a competitive roster yet, they always provide you with backdoor chances. Home game, nothing to lose, new QB, one of the better run defenses who get Foster back – I really like the six points here. San Francisco 49ers +6 |
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10-22-17 | Saints -4 v. Packers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 159 h 29 m | Show |
On top of Rogers going down, the Packers O-Line is in serious question entering this matchup. Regardless if David Bakthiari and Brian Bulaga play, they've had no reps with new QB Brett Hundley this week so they won't be familiar with his pocket presence/movement and it should allow for a field day for the Saints DT's - defensive end Cameron Jordan has registered five sacks already on the year. I expect Hundley and the Packers to attempt to counter this by trying to get rid of the ball very quickly and the Saints D-Coordinator well aware of this and play press coverage everywhere. Besides quick throws expect to see a lot of runs and screens, I don't expect Hundley to open up the offense in his first career start. The one thing he can do is scramble, so the Saints should be actively ready to play contain. On the other side of the ball, things are really coming together for the Saints. They've rattled off three straight wins after an 0-2 start and quarterback Drew Brees sees things falling into place. "I think we've gotten better every week in certain ways," Brees told reporters. "Obviously, we have some momentum. We like the direction that we are going. We understand the things that have happened these last three weeks that've allowed us to win.". One of these things being the running game certainly. Look for Ingram and Kamara to continue their excellent play as of late and to get big chunks of yardage on Sunday against a defense which has struggled against the run allowing 119.8 yards per game (24th in NFL). New Orleans Saints -4 |
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10-22-17 | Panthers v. Bears +3 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 110 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
THe Panthers are in a slightly better situation because they come off a Thursday game and Bears come off a tough overtime game at Baltimore. Some key injuries to monitor as Luke Kuechly is still in the concussion protocol and I doubt he plays, and Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t practiced. It really surprises me that the Panthers are one of the biggest public plays this week as I believe the Bears are a tough underrated team to beat at their home turf. The Bears are 3-0 ATS at home. They played a tough schedule and got blown out twice when Mike Glennon and company destroyed themselves with company. With Trubisky and Kyle Long back healthy, they ground and pound and play it save. Bears have a good front seven, a strong running game and a solid young QB. Panthers struggle to run the ball whole season and even if Ryan Kalil is back, I am having a hard time seeing them running efficiently on that Bears front seven. A field goal at home should provide a lot of opportunity for the cover. Chicago Bears +3 |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 Full analysis coming soon. |
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10-15-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
L.A. Chargers +3.5 Full analysis coming soon |
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10-15-17 | Rams +1 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
Subscriber pick. |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 121 h 20 m | Show |
New Orleans Saints -4.5 Full analysis coming soon |
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10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
I like the Browns again this week. I still don’t know how they lost last week – it was an historical game in terms of losing while completely out gaining the opponent. This line is wrong again in my point of view, as crazy as it sounds. From last year’s great defensive unit, the Texans are without Bouye, Demps, Cushing, Wilfork, Kevin Johnson, Simon, Mercilus and (Watt). They couldn’t stop the pass this season and now they are down another two key players to their front seven. The Browns’ best unit is their offensive line and when Clowney plays against Joe Thomas, I don’t know how this front seven is gonna create consistent pressure or stop the run consistently. I think Kevin Hogan would play with more confidence than Kizer this week but the Browns should absolutely move the ball in this one. Browns must have started giving Hue Jackson the count after last week and this week we should expect more conservative play-calling inside the red zone to get points on the board. I think this game is decided in the fourth quarter and the Texans shouldn’t lay double digits to anyone this week. Cleveland Browns +10 |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
Update: Brady was officially removed from the injury report on Friday. The Jets might be one of the worst 3-2 teams in recent history. They played maybe the easiest defensive stretch possible (MIA, JAX, CLE) and benefited from either great spots or a complete red zone collapse from CLE. Browns could have led 20-0 at halftime. The Jets are the first team since 1994 to rush for fewer than 35 yards and to pass for fewer than 180 yards in a game against the Browns. Note that Powell and Forte appear to be out, leaving Elijah McGuire to handle the load. I expect the Patriots to continue to work out their defensive woes in this one and score at a healthy amount of points. New England Patriots -9 |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Short week off blowout win for the Eagles. They have been looking really good, but they also have wins over 0-5 NYG, 1-4 LAC, 2-2 WSH and 2-3 ARI. I am seeing a letdown. Their best offensive lineman Lane Johnson is in the concussion protocol and we can’t expect him to start. That’s a terrible blow to what seems to be the best OL in the league right now. The offensive efficiency vastly decreased with his absence in 2016. The only thing that kills Wentz this year is pressure and the Panthers should provide that. Backup Vaitai will have a hard time against Addison and Johnson. Panthers defense has one of the best LB corps in the league and they defend TE's very well – Zach Ertz is is by far the favorite target of Wentz and leads all receivers far ahead with 32 receptions. Wentz is 33/61 when targeting Jeffery and Smith. If you take away Ertz and provide pressure, I wouldn’t be afraid about that matchup for Carolina. On the flip side, the Eagles defense hasn’t been playing to what our expectations were. They rank 25th in NYPPA (6.8) and the Panthers passing offense ranks 9th at 6.9 NYPPA and is the best they face year to date. Cam Newton finally looked like his former self the last two games and that offense should be a threat to the Eagles. Carolina Panthers -3 |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Finally Mitch Trubisky gets the start. Better accuracy, better pocket presence, better legs than Glennon. And Vikes don’t really have tape on Trubisky. This is a great spot for the Bears at home on MNF. Rumors are that players also asked for a QB change – that’s huge. The team will bring everything on MNF. Bears have a good front seven and I don’t expect the Vikes to get anything done on the ground with a banged up Murray and McKinnon. Cook is just such a huge loss. Keenum had a great game against a decimated TB defense, but now comes back to reality without a run game. Bears will get this thing done in a great spot with a strong run game and a better QB who will get some first downs with his legs. Chicago Bears +4 |
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10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -2 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
I love the Cowboys here despite Green Bay coming off rest. GB are overvalued in this one after home wins vs 1 - 3 teams. Packers are a mediocre road side, just 15-15 straight up against the spread on the road since 2014 and they struggle against good offenses because their defense still isn’t where it should be in order to be dominant. Cowboys are off a backdoor loss and on revenge after losing to GB in the playoffs. Cowboys are also getting healthier on defense (Irving back from susp, more CB depth) while the Packers are still banged up. They don’t have a running back tomorrow, Davante Adams is banged up, both starting tackles were only limited and so on. I think the Cowboys come out extremely focused in this one and use their offense to control the clock and I expect Zeke to have a big game. Dallas Cowboys -2 |
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10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7.5 | 30-9 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
The Jaguars play their third consecutive road game including a London trip, coming off overtime to play against one of the best home teams in the league. The Jaguars can’t stop the run to save their lives which will make Bell look like his 2016 version. Steelers D is riding Top 5 in metrics,because they played against bad passing offenses, but they get another bad passing offense this week. This game is screaming blowout to me. The only thing that’s concerning is Big Ben's inaccuracy or missing wide out receivers (Brown!). Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 |
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10-08-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Bengals | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
The Bengals had a very easy game last week and as you saw with the Ravens last week, coming off blowouts doesn't usually bode well (let down spot). The Bills have a positive turnover margin, whereas the Bengals give up the ball. The Bills match up well with the Bengals because they got a superior matchup in the trenches defensively. Bills are playing great on D overall. McDermott gets everything out of the 4-3. Its tough to see the Bengals moving the ball efficiently against the Bills. They played a banged up Packers D scoring only 17 offensively and beat a bad Browns defense missing their best players. The Bills are a different animal. Note that the Bills offense gets Cordy Glenn back and Tyrod Taylor and crew should be able to muster up enough points to find a cover in this one. Buffalo Bills +3.5 |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
The Jets look good, the Browns look bad – everyone is grabbing the Jets as a “no-brainer”. Before the season started I had this line at Browns -5.5 and I don't think a lot has changed. The Jets won against the Dolphins who are a bad team who were in a terrible travelling spot. Then they got the Jags without rest off their London trip and almost blew that game. It’s interesting how the perception on the Jets has since adjusted. This is a true road game off a long overtime win and the Browns stay at home. This is the Browns Super Bowl because they know if they can win one game this year it’s this one. Myles Garrett will line up this week, Danny Shelton their best lineman comes back and Jamie Collins also likely comes back. Collins often plays the strong side and in blitz packages. That’s three important players on D coming back that will make the Jets OL look bad. The Jets offense is plain bad and they almost gave the game away last Sunday. They are going to make mistakes and the Browns simply want this one more. Cleveland Browns +1 |
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10-08-17 | Cardinals v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
The Cardinals come off a long divisional overtime game to play an early eastern game against a legit team. The Eagles are a top-10 offense by metrics and haven't faced any bad defenses as of yet which should really help them against a stellar Cards D. Play calling was decent vs LA, many play actions and a good mix of run/pass. Smallwood is out today, so look for Blount and Clement to control the ball. Arizona has a decent D by metrics, but they played SF, IND and DET – their numbers are inflated. I am not sold as a top-10 unit yet. Cards OL is one of the worst in the league and will be overmatched by Philly front seven. Cards will struggle moving the ball and their only hope is to create turnovers. I like Philly in this one. Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
The Matthew Stafford bailout streak ends today. Vikes had 3 fumbles off which Lions scored 11 of 14 points and Stafford had 4 dropped interceptions during the game. In terms of metrics, the Lions offense is easy bottom 10 material. Lions have a turnover ratio of +9 thus far which would be +36 over a season. They can’t sustain that. This has to be the week when the Lions luck goes outta the window. Panthers off huge win and back to back road games, but Lions off huge divisional win. Panthers likely getting Kalil and Samuel back which would be huge. It seems that Newtons injury isn’t an issue anymore, because they finally used Newtons legs again on QB draws and power runs etc. That threat combined with McCaffrey is the reason I was so high on that offense. Panthers should win this one if they don’t fumble the ball away three times, but I'll take the generous field goal cover. Carolina Panthers +3 |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show |
Last game out, the Bucs moved the ball pretty well against a good defense (Giants) without turnover help. Folk missed 7 points (2 field goals, 1 extra point) and the Bucs had a TD reversed and settle only for a field goal from the 1 yard line (also a missed 2pt conversion). So on a different day they score 36 plus points on the Giants defense. Tampa's personnel presents a major mismatch for NE because they can’t cover Evans/Jackson, Brate/Howard and their front seven is too slow and too non disruptive to stop Doug Martin. New England defense ranks 32nd in tight end yards and 31st in receptions. Pats gave up 26+ at home vs offenses with much less talent than Tampa Bay. Pats look like a no-brainer because they are off a loss, but the line is simply too high. There are many chances for a home cover even though their injury report on defense (Kwon Alexander especially) is concerning. Tampa Bay +6 |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
The Kansas City Chiefs are rolling right now and the last place Kirk Cousins would probably like to play on the road in primetime would be in Arrowhead Stadium. The Washington Redskins have a lot of potential against bad defenses (Rams, Raiders), but they are going to struggle against good defenses. Andy Reid has had one extra day to prepare (Redskins coming off MNF) and despite how good the Redskins looked against the Raiders win Week 3, expect a complete turn around tonight in terms of quality of play. Justin Houston and the Chiefs defense will bait Cousins into making mistakes and the Chiefs weapons (Smith, Hunt, Kelce, Hill) will make enough plays to put up points and cover (if the defense doesn't themselves). The last unbeaten team in the league looks to stay that way with another national tv game rout. Kansas City Chiefs -7 |
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10-01-17 | Jaguars v. Jets +3.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 88 h 23 m | Show | |
Don't get confused about the Jags just yet. Yes they surprised the Ravens last week, but everything came together – great situation, great defense, perfect passing plays at the right time (no pressure to pass the ball) against a team that wasn’t ready to play. It was exactly the type of game the Jaguars so desperately want to play – run first offense that wins games on the back of their defense. Perfect setup. But at the end, the Jaguars could have won by more points, because Bortles still left some plays on the table. This week they play in a bad situation. They just travelled to London, beat the Jaguars 44-7, are hyping their QB and the “best secondary in the league”, travel back to Florida and then travel to New York on the weekend to play against a team that matches up decently with them. The Jets’ only strength going into the season was their run defense which was top-3 last year. Stopping the run though is almost completely useless if you cannot defend the pass. When the Jets faced the Raiders, it didn’t make any difference that they were quite successful against Marshawn Lynch, because the Raiders passing offense completely over-matched the Jets pass defense. The Jets were even successful defending the run against the Bills, but Tyrod Taylor is still a decent QB who executed some plays to push his team to 21 points. The Jets played against two run-first offenses who have weaknesses in the passing game (BUF, MIA) and held them to 21 and 6 points. The Miami Offense is exactly the kind of offense the Jaguars have: run-first, power run, mediocre offensive line, bad QB. The Jets are going to make the Jaguars one-dimensional and then we are going to see the typical Blake Bortles when he cannot play with a lead and he starts slinging the ball right into defenders. Josh McCown isn’t going to be successful against the Jaguars passing defense. The only success the Jets offense is going to have is on the ground and it helps that Bilal Powell may start if Forte is injured, because Powell is the more efficient runner. The Jaguars maybe have the best passing defense at this point, but they got terrified on the ground. Even the Texans had a very high success rate, but they weren’t patient enough and started forcing passes in the first half. The Jets are going to pound the ball and use a lot of screens. This is simply a field position game to force Bortles into lots of throws and poor decisions. New York Jets +3.5 |
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10-01-17 | Lions v. Vikings -1.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -118 | 65 h 8 m | Show |
It's easy to think the Lions is the pick here today, but if you read between the lines you'll see that's not the case. Last week, the Lions achieved something not many teams have achieved before. They didn’t commit a turnover, had a +3 turnover advantage and scored 26 points. Since 1989, teams in that situation are 569-12 straight up. The Lions became the 12th team to lose a game like that. Furthermore, since 2011, teams with a turnover margin of +3 and a return touchdown margin of +1 are 124-4 SU. Lions became the 4th team to do that. That game showed how overrated the Lions are. They scored 9 offensive points against the Cardinals through 3 quarters before David Johnson got hurt and the Cards exploded. They survived New York with 122 passing yards on 21 passes against a team that missed its best cornerback. And... they couldn’t even score 20 offensive points at home against the Falcons. Matt Ryan threw 3 picks and the Falcons still dropped 30 points on the Lions. The Vikings have a little revenge here after going 0-2 against the Lions in dramatic fashion in 2016. The offense is completely revamped and even though Case Keenum had an easy game last week against a decimated defense, the overall quality of the offense is really improved; the interior as a whole is playing at a high level. Dalvin Cook is a complete beast and Diggs/Thielen are probably a top-5 duo in the league. They can attack every coverage, are great route runners and have good hands. I expect the Lions defense to get exposed again this week and Keenum only has to execute and feed Dalvin Cook a lot because the Lions are poor at defending the run and bad at getting tackles and angles on the second level. Cook should have a great game. Add a possible defensive score and this should be an easy cover. Minnesota Vikings -1.5 |
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10-01-17 | Titans -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-57 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
If this is the team that everyone thinks is going to make big strides this year, they need to win games like this and take a hold on the AFC South. The Titans can't afford any steps backwards after showing their cards last week versus the Seahawks. Expect a huge effort today from their entire team, losing won't be an option like it has been in the past. Texans defense has quite a bit in injury troubles and on tape they struggle to defend the run and the pass. Titans should just run over them with their two-headed monster in Henry & Murray and they also have a favourable QB matchup if the game gets tight. Note: the favorite when these teams go head-to-head is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Tennessee Titans -2.5 |
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10-01-17 | Saints -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
Coming off games against the 0-3 L.A. Chargers and the last place in the Power Rankings N.Y. Jets, the Dolphins defense rank dead-last in passer rating and dead-last in completion percentage. Now they play against an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. Drew Brees has been playing sensational during the first three weeks despite being 1-2. The offense gets Willie Snead back from suspension this week which should help stretch the field. This offense is loaded – Ted Ginn’s speed opens up a lot of seems for Thomas, Fleener and Snead. The only thing that is still holding back the Saints offense a bit is 32-year-old Adrian Peterson. Saints should move on from him and make Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram the focus point. However, I don’t see how the Dolphins prevent the Saints from scoring a ton in this game. I don’t see many punts from the Saints. The Saints flew directly to London from Carolina on Sunday. They have a full week at London to get adjusted to the time change and the new environment. The Dolphins stayed in Miami and flew out Thursday after the practice. In a week in that Miami needs to make dramatic changes, the Saints are in the much better situation when they can get adjusted to the time change. I think this is a big advantage for them. New Orleans Saints -3 |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | 14-35 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
Packers tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakthiari are doubtful, Jason Spriggs and Kyle Murphy are on IR, as well Cobb is questionable. Tonight we are going to see undrafted free agents, practice squad players or inexperienced guards playing tackle vs. Leonard Floyd, Pernell McPhee and Willie Young. Bears defense held Davonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell and Jaquizz Rodgers to 4.1 YPC or less, so I wouldn't be excited about the Packers' running game tonight. The Bears go into this game full of confidence after last week's win and I expect them to know Green Bay will be keying in on the run, therefore seeing Glennon taking a number of shots downfield. I feel over a touchdown is simply too much value to pass on. Chicago Bears +7.5 |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
The Cowboys didn't like how things played out last game against the Denver Broncos and Zeke even said he didn't give a full effort. Additionally the Broncos have a major home field advantage as you could see yesterday against the Bills. On the flip side the Cardinals come off an overtime win against the Colts and if you watched that game at all last week you know they should be 0-2. As often happens in the NFL, it's the team looking to rebound who often comes through in the end and not the team looking to build on success. This past weekend was a prime example of that as nearly every underdog covered the spread. While yes the Cowboys are the favourite, I don't think the line is big enough giving the circumstance of this game and the fact that they will be all hands on deck go for this tilt. Meanwhile the Cardinals now have a shared backfield and a spotty WR roster (John Brown out, J.J. Nelson comes in with limited practice all week). Look for Elliott to have a monster game behind their huge O-Line and for Carson Palmer to continue to look uncomfortable in the pocket. Dallas Cowboys -2.5 |
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09-24-17 | Raiders -3 v. Redskins | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -115 | 81 h 59 m | Show |
The Raiders are a west coast team that plays in the pacific time zone and the Redskins play in the eastern time zone. When the game starts, the body clock of the Redskins players is at 8.30 PM EST, the body clock of the Raiders is at 5.30 PM EST. As the game moves on, the bodies of the Redskins calm down towards sleeping time, whereas the Raiders are still fresh. That has a high impact on the game. Going back to 1994, pacific time teams playing eastern time teams on the road on SNF or MNF: 21-5 ATS, outscoring the home teams 14.7 – 9.9 in the second half. Going back to 1989, road teams score 10.0 points per average in the second half and get outscored by 0.7 points by the home side. In the body clock games, pacific teams score 4.7 points more and outscore the home teams by 5.5 points more than in standard road games. Not only do the Raiders have a biological advantage, they also have an offense that can outscore the Redskins easily. The Redskins defense doesn’t have the firepower to compete with the Raiders, period. I would be shocked if the Raiders stay below 24 in this one, I am rather looking at 28-35 points. It will depend on whether the Redskins are able to outscore the Raiders at home and I doubt it. Jordan Reed got injured, didn’t practice on Wednesday and word is that he doesn’t look healthy. That’s a huge downgrade for the Redskins offense because Reed is Cousins’ go-to guy. Reed saw 14 targets in two games and caught 6/6 passes against the Rams. Over the last two seasons, the Redskins are 3-5 SU and scored 20 or less points in half those games when Jordan Reed didn’t play. Terrelle Pryor has had dropping issues so far, Josh Doctson is still on a snap count. Raiders CB Sean Smith had an off-season in 2016 off his new contract but he played much better against the Titans and rookie Gareon Conley played well against the Jets. If the Raiders are able to lock down the WR's and Reed doesn’t play, it’s gonna be a long day for Cousins. I think the Raiders will have their tough stretch during the second half of the season against strong defenses, but for now we just gotta ride them against mediocre defenses. Oakland Raiders -3 |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
I still don’t know how the Chargers lost last week because they played great on offense and played good on defense. The Chiefs have produced offensive metrics over the first two weeks that aren’t sustainable. They will regress over the next couple of weeks and this time they have to travel to Los Angeles and the Chargers are in allin mode facing a 0-3 and a realistic end to their season. They will bring it this week. The Eagles had a lot of chances to win against KC, but Wentz’s accuracy and Pedersons play-calling held them back. The Chargers will have a lot of success offensively and will use the loss of Eric Berry. Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry should have a really good game. Eagles targeted Ertz 10 times last week and we could see 10-15 targets for Gates and Henry, but with better accuracy from a better QB. After two wins with sensational metrics, the Chiefs should come down to earth here. I don’t like that Jason Verrett is still not practicing, but the Chiefs don’t have the type of route runners that can expose not having Berry on board. Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 |
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09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3 | 16-26 | Win | 110 | 109 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a great situational spot to take the Bills. The Broncos are super high-flying emotionally after that astonishing blowout win at home against the Cowboys. As we found out last week, the Broncos not only have one of the best home field advantages in general, they also are 31-3 at home now during the first two weeks since 1989. They are 136-65 starting in week 3. Now travelling to Buffalo to play on the road with a game against the 2-0 Raiders on deck is a completely different and tough spot. With Trevor Siemian at QB – even though the passing game is improved – the Broncos haven’t been road warriors in 2016. They went 3-4 and one win at New Orleans was off a last-second FG block return touchdown. Every team has its off-games and I expect the Broncos to have an off-game at Buffalo. The perception is that the Broncos are now unbeatable and the Bills are a team that wants to tank. Before the season started most of the people had the Broncos as an 8-8/9-7 team and the Bills around 5-11/6-10. Now because of two games and two trades, the perception changed drastically. With the Bills we don’t really need to care about the passing matchup, because the Bills don’t have the receivers to win one on one matchups against the Broncos so they aren’t going to target them often. The Bills must get their run game going like last year and simply overwhelm and outwear that Denver defense and rely on Tyrod Taylor's feet. When they go run-heavy and mix in some designed runs for Taylor and create field position on defense like I expect them to, they have a very good shot to win this game. Buffalo Bills +3 |
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09-24-17 | Browns v. Colts +2 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in a professional football game. Let that sink for a while. The last time the Browns were road favorites was in week 7 of 2014 at Jacksonville (-2.5). I like what the Browns are doing offensively, but with Myles Garrett on a snap count at the most and Jamie Collins sidelined with a concussion, this defense has really nothing to compete. The Browns couldn’t get any pressure on Ben or Flacco during the first two games and I highly doubt that they are going to get consistent pressure on Brissett. There is no one on the Browns defense you have to account for or to work out a special gameplan for. Colts should move the ball and get some scores in this one. And for those who watch the Cardinals/Colts matchup last week, I swear Gore was running like he was 25 years old in his prime. The key matchup in this game belongs to the Colts secondary. Malik Hooker gives this secondary something special as he already presented his great ball-hawking skills last Sunday with his first career interception. He can cover a lot of ground which makes the work of other defensive backs a lot easier. CB Rashaan Melvin played really solid thus far and the Colts probably get stud CB Vontae Davis back this week. Davis has been limited since last Friday and the chances are good that he lines up this week. That’s a tremendous boost for the Colts, especially matchup-wise. The Browns lost their best WR Corey Coleman due to a broken hand. Coleman is an accuracy-eraser who gives Kizer a larger margin for error. As explained before week one, Kizers biggest problem is his accuracy which has a high variance. Sammy Coates is still injured and unlikely to play. That leaves the Browns with Kenny Britt, Kasen Williams, Rashard Higgins and Ricardo Louis against an improving secondary. During the first two games Kizer showed off some great plays but also showed off some glaring mistakes when his receivers are covered. He tends to run into sacks and forces throws instead of throwing it away. Indianapolis Colts +2 |
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09-24-17 | Saints v. Panthers -5 | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
I normally like siding with 0-2 teams due to the desperation they play with in Week 3 knowing the season could be over early if they don't get the win, that being said I simply can't do it with New Orleans on the road in Carolina. As great as Drew Brees has been playing over the first two weeks, he can’t carry that team alone. I see a lot of forced throws under pressure this one and for the Panthers elite linebacking core to pick a couple off. It also doesn't help that both of the Saints starting defensive tackles are injured. It’s a tough road game at Carolina and Cam Newton is getting better. He still had some very weird throws but played better than against SF. If he makes the next step, the Panthers should put up a decent amount of points on the Saints college defense and I see their defense playing well against the Saints. Yes Greg Olsen is out, but they have a veteran replacement in Ed Dickinson. Panthers should roll this one home. Carolina Panthers -5 |
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09-24-17 | Texans v. Patriots -13 | Top | 33-36 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 32 m | Show |
Deshaun Watson is not an NFL QB (yet). We saw it in the preseason, we saw it against Jacksonville and we saw it at Cincinnati. He has bad accuracy, a weak arm, throws with low velocity, completely panics and abandons his footwork when under pressure. The Patriots are going to have a good game plan against him because they already watched him in joint practices in August. Rookie QBs are 0-8 at New England in the Belichick era, throwing 5 INT to 16 INT. They are going to contain him in the pocket and have a spy because they can aggressively cover every receiver not named DeAndre Hopkins. They will do the same as they did against PIT in the playoffs. Double-team Hopkins and make Watson beat them on other receivers. Bill O’Brien once again showed that he is a terrible play caller and completely non-creative when it comes to offensive scheming. Hopkins had every snap on the same side of the field and almost always ran the same routes. Belichick is goint to bait Watson to throw to Hopkins and block all the running lanes he can possibly get. I would be completely surprised if the Texans scored a touchdown this week. On the other side, the Texans don’t have enough quality on defense at this point. They lost Kevin Johnson (4-6 weeks), Johnathan Joseph is hurt, Brian Cushing is suspended and they don’t have a quality SS that can match up with Gronkowski (I predict that he plays). This is still a good defense, but they don’t have the tools to match up with the versatility of the Patriots offense. New England -13 |
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09-24-17 | Falcons -3 v. Lions | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 90 h 30 m | Show |
Despite being 2-0, the Lions have played two really bad offenses - both with terrible offensive lines. The Giants now stayed below 20 points in their last eight consecutive games. The Cardinals offense is a complete mess – no WRs, no RBs, bad pass protection. I still think the Lions defense isn’t any good and they will get torched by a good offense. They will face a good offense this week. The Falcons should have no trouble moving the ball at Detroit this week. Against the Cardinals, the Lions were held to 9 offensive points through three quarters. Against the Giants, they scored 17 offensive points and Stafford was held to a career low 122 total passing yards and 5 NYPPA. It was enough to win the game, because Stafford made great drive extending plays on his feet by running for first downs or by throwing on the move outside the pocket and that’s where the Giants defense failed – you gotta keep him in the pocket and let him react to pressure, because that’s when he starts making mistakes. In the second half, Stafford had 3 passing attempts. They know the Giants couldn’t score and they just ran the ball. The Falcons are probably going to score early and often so the Lions offense will be forced to something they don’t really want to: abandon their offensive style and play catch-up with a good offense. Falcons should be able to jump a good lead in this one and run out the clock in the second half by forcing Stafford to step up and make consistent throws out of the pocket and stop throwing simple screens. I think the matchup for the Falcons offense is much better than the one for the Lions. Atlanta Falcons -3 |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
A division game giving us 6 points to work with is too much to pass up on, despite how the Giants have looked thus far. Now 0-2 on the year, the Giants will go all in at Philadelphia. If they go 0-3, their season is over. News just came in that Janoris Jenkins will play which is a huge boost for this Giants D. He should be tasked with covering Alshon Jeffrey who's coming off a seven-catch, 92 yards performance against the Chiefs. Also just in... all three starting Eagles CB's which were questionable have been ruled out! Those players are: Rodney McLeod, Jaylen Watkins and Corey Graham. I think the Eagles played quite solid at Kansas City, but they have two problems: Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz. Pederson has very weird play-calling. They were very successful on the ground but Pederson somehow went pass-heavy. Wentz can’t throw a deep ball to save his life. He is now 3/13 on deep balls (20+ yards) which includes the lucky Ertz catch at KC and he is 15/31 when targeting Torrey Smith and Alshon Jeffery. The Eagles might win solely with their defense, because Odell won’t be 100% and that Eagles front seven is an easy matchup for the Giants’ offensive line. However, Wentz should struggle against that Giants defense and we have a 6 point cushion to work with. New York Giants +6 |
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 43 h 20 m | Show |
This is a great spot for the Jaguars. They come off an embarrassing divisional home loss and now will bring everything to the table to beat the Ravens. The Ravens come into this game with a suspect 2-0 record with wins over the Bengals and Browns - two teams who probably won't make the playoffs. And thus I think the Ravens are overvalued in this spot. The Jaguars once again saw that they can’t give the game into the hands of Blake Bortles and they are going to ground and pound again from the beginning. The Ravens are without their very best run defender Brandon Williams who didn’t make the trip, as well as their best lineman, Marshal Yanda, who made six consecutive pro bowls, for the season. The Ravens also have a huge game against the Steelers. The Jaguars defense is really awesome, don’t let the last game fool you. Until deep in the third quarter, they held the Titans and their great o-line to just field goals and a lot of three & outs until they got worn out and Derrick Henry just overrun them plus short field position. You can be sure that this Jaguars defense will completely shut down the overrated Ravens offense. I won’t bet on Blake Bortles often, but when I do, it’s against a bad offense where he doesn’t have to play catch-up. Jacksonville Jaguars +4 |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
As much as I like the direction the Los Angeles Rams are going, I'm not sold on 2nd year QB Jared Goff to get the job done on the road in a primetime game and win by 4 points or more. The chemistry between a new receiving core isn't there yet, so in the event they get down early it will be up to Goff to spread the field and I think the 49ers D is capable enough to make stops or even score a few INT's. They held the Seahawks to 12 points at home last week including a single late 4th quarter touchdown. The Panthers also had difficulty scoring on them in Week 1 with all their weapons go. I also don't like the fact that star lineman Aaron Donald is still getting in game shape after holding out the entire offseason and preseason. Lastly the Niners really want to get this win at home to show their California native team who runs the show in-state, but even if they lose by a couple we still cover. Finally, as much as people hate on Brian Hoyer, he is a veteran QB and you'll see a nice connection between him and Pierre Garcon all game. San Franciso 49ers +3 |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 123 h 19 m | Show |
The Giants were almost shut out on prime time whereas the Lions dropped 35 points on the Cardinals as underdogs. The Lions earned that win, but they were playing a Cardinals team at home that played extremely bad. Clients will recall that was my 'Game of the Year' in fact, but I'm not one to dwell on the past and keep firing away at the same time, rather we learn from it and move on. What is important to take away is that the Lions didn't beat a great team in Week 1. The Cards offensive line didn’t look improved and their receivers once again were a complete no show. On top of that, Carson Palmer had a bad game with some terrible throws. On top of that, they lost their most valuable offensive player in the third quarter when David Johnson went down during a fumble. At that point, the Cards were actually leading the Lions 17-9 – with a Stafford pick-six. Palmer added a pick-six himself later. Kudos to the Lions, but it wasn’t that they controlled that game from start to finish. New York played without their best offensive player and the offensive line got completely manhandled by the Cowboys front seven. With Odell on the field, you have a guy who cannot only beat every CB, he also is a great deep threat. You put your best CB on him but you cannot have Odell in single man coverage on one side of the field. You always have to shade a safety over the top. That puts Brandon Marshall into a much better matchup on the CB2 and opens up space underneath for Shepard, Engram and Vereen. On Monday we will get a completely different matchup, because the Lions line backing corps isn’t as smart as Sean Lee and Jaylen Smith and they are going to have a significantly worse wide receiver matchup than against the Cards. Slay will likely be put on Odell with safety help and Brandon Marshall likely gets Nevin Lawson who is 5’9″. Marshall is 6’5″. This is unfair. Marshall is gonna burn him in man coverage and I expect a very good stat line from Brandon Marshall. Vice versa, Odell should absolutely get the better of Lawson. Overall the Giants are going to have a much much better matchup offensively this week. The Giants still have an elite defense despite what you saw Week 1. They held one of the best offenses to 19 offensive points (2016 avg: 26.7), 1 TD & 4 FGs on 9 drives. Now they get the Lions offense at home. With Matthew Stafford, the Lions are 2-23 SU on the road against teams that finish the season with a winning record. Since 2015, the Lions had 9 road games in open stadiums. They scored 28, 16, 10, 18, 24, 27, 14, 6, 6 points. That’s 16.4 PPG and they went 2-7 in those games. The Lions are going to have a hard time moving the ball on this Giants defense as they had last December when they scored 6 points at New York. They won’t win the battle in the trenches and Stafford's accuracy has never been good enough to hit receivers intermediate or deep in tight coverages. This offense will see a lot of 3 & outs and will have a very hard time in the red zone. I think the line is a complete overreaction at this point and that the Lions is the clear public play. New York Giants -3 (comfortable up to -4.5) |
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09-17-17 | 49ers v. Seahawks -13.5 | Top | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 41 m | Show |
Cam Newton played bad last Sunday at San Francisco and it was still enough for the Panthers to beat the Niners 23-3. The Niners have some young talent on their defense and a promising head coach, but they are still a bad Football team. Brian Hoyer simply can't be trusted as a starter in this league, especially on the road facing one the toughest defenses in the league. The Niners defense was solid against the run in Week 1, but losing Rueben Foster was huge. The front seven took a step back after his absence and the pass defense is still nowhere to be found. The Seahawks lost 6-17 at Green Bay, but despite losing the game, the Seahawks defense showed promise. The Seahawks went into Lambeau Field and held the Packers offense with the best QB in the NFL to just 17 points; 7 of which were scored on a start from the SEA 6 yard line and another 7 on a blown defensive formation. All that considering that the Seahawks lost cornerback Jeremy Lane during the first quarter from getting kicked out of the game. Aaron Rodgers played 72 times at Lambeau Field. In just 8 games he was held to 20 or less points. That alone should tell you how great that performance was. This week, the Seahawks will get the lowly Niners at home and the crowd will be rocking. The Hawks came into Lambeau with high expectations. They wanted to make a statement and get revenge from that devastating 7-38 loss in 2016. They lost. Now they are going to take all their motivation and frustration to put a legit beatdown on their division rival. This is one of the worst offenses taking on the best defense in the NFL at Century Link stadium off a loss. The defensive line will be all over that Niners offensive line and Brian Hoyer. Cliff Avril hurt his shoulder against the Packers, so we might see more DE rotations and more snaps for Frank Clark. This might be one of the worst matchups for any offense this year. The Seahawks also have a history of dominating bad QB's at home. We cannot get a better spot to grab the Seahawks below two touchdowns. Note: the Seahawks are 10-1 SU / 8-2-1 ATS at home off a loss, outscoring their opponents by 15 ppg. Seahawks -13.5 (comfortable up to -14) |
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09-17-17 | Cowboys v. Broncos +3 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
On Monday Night Football last week you saw the incredible home field advantage the Broncos have. Amazingly the Broncos are 30-3 SU at home during the first two weeks since 1989. The average score has been 28.1 – 18.7, so they are outscoring opponents by 9.4 PPG at home during the first two weeks of the season. If there are bad spots on the Cowboys schedule, it’s definitely this one at Denver. I think Dak Prescott is going to be a very good QB for the next decade, but in his second season, he is going to have some regression games where he throws 1-2 picks and is forced to make mistakes. This game might be one. The biggest advantage the Cowboys have on paper is their run game against a Denver run defense that was particularly bad last season. Without TJ Ward, I didn’t expect them to improve on that but his replacement young Justin Simmons looks to be the real deal. He was all over the field on Monday, making open-field tackles, making tackles in the box and blitzing Philip Rivers on the play that led to his interception. Overall, the run defense played much better than I expected them to do. If the Broncos can sustain that level even against better running teams, they are going to have an awesome defense once again this year. They got three great corners who can play man against any team in the league. I don’t think we are going to see great third down success from the Cowboys in this one. Last season, the Boys started with five fairly easy road games in terms of opposing defenses, winning all 5. Then they had their issues against the Vikings and Giants, scoring 17 and 7. I think this is another really tough game for the Cowboys offense and I doubt we are going to see more than 20 points from them. I don’t think they are going to attack the Broncos through the air, they should try to ground and pound which keeps the clock ticking. This is another argument for a rather low scoring affair in which would favour the Broncos. I don’t think the Cowboys go to Mile High and just do business. It’s going to be a very tough game against a great defense and a loud crowd that might disrupt a few of Prescott's great audibles at the line of scrimmage. I think Trevor Siemian and that offense tanked some confidence against the Chargers and they are ready for this game. Denver Broncos +3 |
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09-17-17 | Browns +9 v. Ravens | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -125 | 119 h 19 m | Show |
The Browns lost at home to the Steelers in a game they absolutely could have won. The Steelers got 7 points from a blocked punt return TD. I don’t think that Kizer had a good game running into 3-4 sacks by himself and leaving two touchdowns on the table by missing open receivers. He was sacked 7 times and the Browns still had a shot to win that game. Simultaneously, the Ravens shut out a really bad Bengals team on the road. While the 20-0 result reads very well, we have to account for how they won that game - DEFENSE. The Ravens offense looks abysmal. Flacco didn't look like a veteran one bit and he couldn’t really move the ball on a bad defense. The Ravens scored 7 points off a Dalton pick starting at the Cincinnati 2 yard line. Flacco went 9 for 17, throwing for 121 yards. 48 of his 121 yards came from Maclin's untouched touchdown alone where he threw it short and Maclin could literally walk into the end zone. The Ravens lost Danny Woodhead for a few weeks, a good receiving back who just collected 11 yards per catch on 3/3 targets. The Baltimore Ravens offense will have a tough time scoring many points on any defense this year, also on the Browns. Their ceiling is always going to be in the 10-24 offensive points range. Flacco is mistake-prone and is always good for 1-2 interceptions. And that’s where I believe this spread is too high. The Ravens defense is stout, but I doubt that this unit alone will be enough to win this game by 9+ points against a decent offense. At 9 points we have a lot of options, especially late in the game, when we always have the chance of a backdoor cover with these Browns. Hue Jackson already showed that he is going to be aggressive this year by going for it twice on fourth down. The Browns converted both. This line has tremendous value as soon as the Ravens don’t pull away by more than two possessions. Scores throughout the game of 10-3, 14-10, 21-13 will always keep us in the game if the Ravens grab leads. If the Browns score first, we have a 12 or 16 point advantage against a bad offense. I expect this game to be close throughout 60 minutes, a classic wire-to-wire matchup. 9 points against a bad offense with a decent offense and an aggressive coach is great value. Note: Teams playing the week before a game in London are 10-22-2 ATS (31.2%) lifetime. Ravens travel to London next week. Cleveland Browns +9 (good down to +7.5) |
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09-11-17 | Saints v. Vikings -3 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
Minnesota Vikings -3 (buy the hook if your line is -3.5) Full analysis coming soon |
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09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 708 h 9 m | Show | |
The Giants will be coming to Jerry World Sunday Night Football to face the Cowboys with or without several stars in the mix. Giants superstar receiver Odell Beckham Jr. suffered a scary knee/ankle injury in preseason and hasn't practised since, however signs are pointing to him playing despite listed as Questionable; as is fellow starter wideout Brandon Marshall with a shoulder injury. Ezekiell Elliot faces league suspension and it's still unknown if he'll play - obviously a huge x-factor. We do know the Cowboys will be without both starting DE's which is huge for the Giants sluggish O-Line. While the Giants run game and o-line still look suspect after some really bad preseason games, I really like their defense this year and I think that be the difference maker for them in Week 1. New York Giants +4.5 |
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09-10-17 | Panthers -5.5 v. 49ers | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 170 h 26 m | Show | |
The Panthers are expected to make some noise this year and with that in mind losing on opening week to what is believed to be a bottom feeder team this year is not an option. The 49ers are in rebuild mode with a bright future, but I don't expect them to turn it around in Week 1 of the new era. In the mean time they will manage with Hoyer at the helm, veteran receiver Pierre Garcon out wide, and Carlos Hyde at running back; yet they aren't going to blow anyone away. Expect their defense to excel more than anything with additions of Reuben Foster and Soloman Thomas, but overall they will have a lot of work to do. The Panthers have some weapons in newly drafted Christian McCaffrey, wideout Kelvin Benjamin, tight end Greg Olsen, and of course for MVP Cam Newton who's said to have a lot of pep in his step throughout preseason. The defense is solid with Kuechly and Davis at linebacker and Johnson at line. Both corner backs have a full season of work under their belt and should be much improved this season. Playing on the road is never easy, but I'm going to side with the team who has a returning Quarterback, Head Coach, Tight End, and Receivers versus a team who's full of new faces. Especially in Week 1. Carolina Panthers -5.5 |
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09-10-17 | Steelers -8 v. Browns | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 167 h 6 m | Show | |
The Pittsburgh Steelers open up the 2017/18 campaign on the road against divisional opponent the Cleveland Browns. Ben Roethlisberger and crew will look to make another run for a championship this season with all weapons go. Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Eli Rogers makeup a mean receiving core and we may even see a little of 2nd round draft pick JuJu Smith-Schuster. With respect to the running game, Le'veon Bell is arguably the best running back in the league. The defense is rounding into shape with new additions Watt and Dupree along side with Shazier. The Steelers officially sit at #5 in the NFL Power Rankings. Meanwhile the Browns are coming off a 1-15 season and still don't have a reliable QB to go with. They drafted nicely, but it will take time for this ship to right itself. The Browns officially sit at #30 in the NFL Power Rankings. Pittsburgh Steelers -8 (play up to -9.5) |
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09-10-17 | Falcons -7 v. Bears | 23-17 | Loss | -100 | 167 h 5 m | Show | |
With the Chicago in rebuild mode from the top down and Atlanta coming off a brutal SuperBowl loss which they've surely been thinking about all summer, expect this one to get away from the hometown Bears quickly. This is what you call the opposite of a SuperBowl hangover. All of the Falcons frustrations after last years' big game has been bottled up since February and it's about to unload on what is expected to be a bottom feeder team in the 2017/18 NFL season - the Chicago Bears. All of Atlanta's weapons are back and healthy. The two headed monster that is Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman is a lot for any team to handle. Their rapidly improving TE Austin Cooper has a really high ceiling, some say as much as former all-pro Falcon Tony Gonzalez. Julio Jones needs no introduction. And at QB Matty Ice only seeks another Super Bowl run. So the only question left being is 7 points too much to lay on the road in Week 1, I think not. Atlanta Falcons -7 (safe up to -9.5) |
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09-10-17 | Cardinals +2.5 v. Lions | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -120 | 812 h 60 m | Show |
Last year around this time the Cardinals were thinking Super Bowl and bettors were all high and mighty on them going the distance. They ended up falling flat even missing the playoffs. It was a monumental disappointment for players and coaches - a feeling they don't want to experience again. A new year and a new outlook, the Cardinals won't be coming into this season thinking they are entitled like they did last year. Ricky feels bad for their opponents as I can see the Cardinals playing every game with a chip on their shoulder. In fact Ricky believes it started in Week 16 of last season when they beat Seattle in Seattle 34-31 and then in Week 17 when they demolished the L.A. Rams in Los Angeles 44-6. Now in Week 1 of the 2017/18 NFL season they visit the Lions in Detroit and are getting points. This is not the team you want coming into your house Week 1, nor do you want to be favoured against them which is only fuelling their motivation even more. Look for David Johnson to keep the linebackers inside the box and then for the play-action to really open up the secondary with one or two long bombs to John Brown. On the defensive side of the ball, CB Peterson will lock down Marvin Jones Jr. and Safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Tyvon Branch will provide over the top help on Golden Tate. I can also see Chandler Jones making it hard for Detroit RB's to get to the outside and linebacker Karlos Dansby being a force in the middle forcing Stafford into some long 3rd downs which will be prime INT situations for the Cards. Shop around and get the best line you can, I was able to get Cardinals +2.5 but anything up until -3 I would be comfortable with. Good luck! |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
10* play on PIT |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 66 h 57 m | Show |
10* play on Texans Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Houston. Here are 5 reasons why: Quarterback: Derek Carr is not playing for Oakland Defense: Houston is the number 1 ranked defense in the league Home Record: Houston is 7-1 at home Home Defense: Houston has held their last 4 opponents to 21 points or less at home Recent Scoring: The Raiders have been held to 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games |
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01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 57 m | Show |
10* play on Eagles. Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Philadelphia. Here are 4 reasons why: Home Record: The Eagles are 5-2 at home. Home Defense: The Eagles have held 3 of their last 5 opponents to 19 points or less at home. Road Scoring: The Cowboys have scored 24 points total in their last 2 road games. Scoring Defense: Dallas is ranked 4th giving up 18.6 points a game |
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12-25-16 | Broncos v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 10-33 | Win | 100 | 128 h 3 m | Show |
10* play on Chiefs Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Kansas City. Here are 5 reasons why: |
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12-24-16 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* play on Bucs Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Tampa Bay. Here are 5 reasons why: Tampa Bay Defense: The Bucs have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 21 points or less. Recent Performance: The Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 games. Road Performance: The Bucs have won 4 of their last 5 road games Scoring: The Colts have been held to 23 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Scoring Defense: The Saints give up 28 points a game which ranks them 30th |
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12-24-16 | Colts +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Indianapolis. Here are 4 reasons why: Road Performance: The Colt's have won their last 4 road games. Recent Meetings: The Colts have won the last 4 meetings between these teams Recent Games: The raiders have been held below 20 points in their last 2 games. Defense: The Raiders are ranked 25th against the pass and 29th in total defense |
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12-24-16 | Titans -4.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 39 m | Show |
Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Tennessee. Here are 5 reasons why: Recent Games: The Titans have won 3 straight games and have held those opponents to 21 points or less scoring. Offense: The Titans have the 3rd best running game in the league and are ranked 8th in total offense. Streaks: The Jaguars have lost 9 straight games. Quarterback: Bortles has thrown for less than 200 yards in 3 of his last 4 games and is 2nd in the league with 16 interceptions Scoring: The Jaguars haven't scored more than 21 points in 7 straight games |
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12-24-16 | Vikings v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 25-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* play on Packers Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Green Bay. Here are 5 reasons why: Recent Games: The Packers have won 4 straight games. Scoring Defense: The Packers have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 13 points or less. Scoring Offense: The Vikings have been held to 20 points or less in 7 of their last 9 games. Road Performance: The Vikings have lost 4 of their last 5 road games. Offense: The Viking's offense is ranked 31st in total offense and dead last in rushing |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 153 h 3 m | Show |
10* play on Bucs Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Tampa Bay. Here are 5 reasons why: Tampa Defense: The Bucs have held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 21 points or less scoring. Road Performance: The Bucs have won 4 straight road games and 5 of 6 overall ATS: The Bucs have covered the spread in 5 straight games and in 7 of 9 overall Recent Scoring: The Cowboys have been held to 24 points total in their last 2 games. Margin of Victory: The Cowboys have won by 5 points or less in 3 of their last 4 wins |
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12-18-16 | Packers v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 146 h 34 m | Show |
10* play on Bears Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Chicago. Here are 4 reasons why: Road Performance: The Packers lost 3 of their last 4 road games and gave up at least 30 points in each loss. Home Defense: The Bears held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 17 points or less in Chicago Overall Defense: The Bears are ranked 6th against the pass and 7th in total defense. Opponent Scoring: The Bears give up just 22.3 points a game. |
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12-12-16 | Ravens +8 v. Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 189 h 59 m | Show |
10* play on Ravens Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Baltimore. Here are 4 reasons why: Raven Defense: The Ravens are ranked 2nd in points allowed (17.3 points a game) Margin of Defeat: Four of the 5 losses by the Ravens were by 8 points or less. Recent Meetings: The Ravens have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 meetings. Run Defense: The Ravens are the best in the league at stopping the run |
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12-11-16 | Texans v. Colts -6.5 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* play on COLTS. Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Indianapolis Colts. Here are 3 reasons why: Colts' Last Game: Indianapolis is coming off a season-best 41-10 beatdown of the New York Jets on Monday. The Colts are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Road Woes: The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Indianapolis. Brock Osweiler: The Houston QB ranks just 31st in the NFL among 32 qualified quarterbacks with a 74.2 rating. |
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12-08-16 | Raiders +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 22 m | Show |
10* play on Raiders Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Oakland. Here are 5 reasons why: Oakland Recent Scoring: The Raiders have scored at least 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Road Performance: The Raiders are undefeated on the road. Quarterback: raider QB Derek Carr is ranked 4th in the league with over 3300 yards and 24 TD passes. Chiefs Defense: KC is ranked 29th in total defense in the league. Recent Wins: The Chiefs have won their last 3 games by 3 points or less |
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 142 h 55 m | Show |
10* play on Seattle Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Seattle. Here are 5 reasons why: Road games: Carolina has lost 3 of their last 4 road games. Home games: Seattle has won all 5 of their home games. Recent Scoring: Carolina has been held to 23 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. ATS: Seattle has covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 games. Performance: Seattle has a 6-2-1 record in their last 9 games |
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12-04-16 | Giants v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 139 h 4 m | Show |
10* play on PIT Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Pittsburgh. Here are 5 reasons why: Recent Opponents: The Giants have 4 of their last 5 wins against teams with a combined 9-35-1 record. Scoring: The Giants have scored more than 21 points in a game just 4 times all year Recent Wins: Pittsburgh has won 2 straight games outscoring their opponents 52-16 Home Scoring: The Steelers have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their 5 home games Road Scoring: The Giants have been held to 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 road games.
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12-04-16 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 135 h 28 m | Show |
10* play on Ravens Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Baltimore. Here are 4 reasons why: Recent Meetings: The Ravens have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams. Miami Defense: Miami has given up at least 23 points in 5 of their last 7 games. Raven Defense: The Ravens are ranked 2nd in total yards on defense and 4th giving up 18.3 points a game. Miami Run Defense: Miami is ranked 30th against the run giving up 132 yards a game |
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12-04-16 | Texans v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 135 h 27 m | Show |
10* play on Packers Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Green Bay. Here are 4 reasons why: Road Performance: Houston has lost 3 of 4 games on the road by at least 7 points in each. Houston Offense: Houston has been held to 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. Packer Offense: The Packers are ranked 13th in total offense and average over 26 points a game. Ranking Offense: Houston is ranked 31st in passing offense and 29th in scoring with 17.6 points a game. |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -105 | 135 h 26 m | Show |
10* play on ATL Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Atlanta. Here are 4 reasons why: Atlanta Scoring: The Falcons lead the league in scoring with over 32 points a game. Home Scoring: The Falcons have scored at least 30 points in 4 of their 5 home games. Kansas City Scoring: The Chiefs reached 30 points in just 3 games all year. Recent Scoring: The Chiefs have been held to 20 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys -3 v. Vikings | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -135 | 71 h 1 m | Show |
10* play on Cowboys Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Dallas. Here are 4 reasons why: Viking Offense: The Vikings rank dead last in total offense and rushing. Dallas Offense: The Cowboys lead the league in rushing and average over 28 points a game scoring. Recent Play: Dallas has won 10 straight games and the Vikings have lost 5 of their last 6. Dallas Defense: Dallas has held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 23 points or less. |
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11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders -4 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 5 m | Show |
10* play on Raiders Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Oakland. Here are 4 reasons why: Offense: The Raiders are ranked 6th in the league in total offense and 5th in scoring Recent Scoring: The Panthers have been held to 23 points or less in their last 3 games. Home Scoring:the Raiders have scored at least 27 points in 3 of their last 4 home games Recent Defense: The Raiders have held their last 4 opponents to 24 points or less |
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11-24-16 | Redskins +9 v. Cowboys | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
10* play on Redskins Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Washington. Here are 4 reasons why: Recent Scoring: The Redskins have scored at least 27 points in 3 of their last 4 games Streaks:The Redskins have won 6 of their last 8 games Quarterback: Kirk Cousins is ranked third in the NFL in passing with over 300 yards a game. Offense: The Redskins are the 3rd ranked offense in the league averaging over 25 points a game |
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11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 158 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Oakland. Here are 5 reasons why: Oakland Wins:The Raiders have scored an average of 31 points in their last 5 wins. Performance: The Raiders have won 6 of their last 7 games. Road Scoring: Houston has averaged 11.5 points a game scoring on the road. Offense: Houston is ranked 29th in scoring (17.9 points a game). Oakland is ranked 5th in scoring (27.2 points a game). Defense: Oakland has held their last 3 opponents to 24 points or less.
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11-20-16 | Eagles v. Seahawks -6 | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 129 h 27 m | Show | |
Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Seattle. Here are 5 reasons why: Home And Away: The Eagles have lost 4 straight road games and the Seahawks are 4-0 at home. Road Scoring: The Eagles have scored 23 points or less in their last 4 road games. Defense: The Seahawks are ranked 8th in total defense and 2nd in points allowed (17.6 points a game). Road Defense: The Eagles have given up at least 27 points in each of their last 3 road games. Home Scoring: The Seahawks averaged over 31 points a game scoring in their last 3 home games. |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars v. Lions -6.5 | Top | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 126 h 5 m | Show |
10* play on DET. Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Detroit. Here are 5 reasons why: Recent Games: The Lions have won 4 of their last 5 games with the only loss on the road. The Jaguars have lost 4 straight games. Scoring: The Jaguars have scored 22 points or less in their last 5 games. Both of their wins were by 4 points total. Road Results: The Jaguars have lost 3 of their 4 road games by an average of 14.3 points in each loss. Home Games: The Lions have won 3 straight home games and scored an average of 25 points in each game. Defense: The Lions have held their last 3 opponents to 20 points or less scoring |
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11-20-16 | Bucs +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 126 h 3 m | Show |
10* play on BUCS. Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Tampa Bay. Here are 4 reasons why: Recent Meetings: The Bucs have won the last 4 meetings between these teams. Offense: The Bucs have averaged 30.5 points scoring in their last 4 games. Home Wins: The Chiefs have won by an average of 5.7 points in 3 of their 4 home wins. Recent Wins: The Chiefs have won by 6 points or less in 3 of their last 4 wins. |
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11-14-16 | Bengals +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 135 h 60 m | Show |
10* play on Cincinnati Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Cincinnati. Here are 4 reasons why: Giants Offense: Giants are dead last in running the ball (68 yards a game) and 25th in passing and scoring (20 points a game). Bengals Offense: The Bengals are ranked 4th in passing and 7th in rushing (120 yards a game). Recent Games: The Bengals have scored 58 points total in their last 2 games. Bengal Losses: Two of the Bengal losses were against new England and Dallas on the road who are a combined 14-2 |
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11-13-16 | 49ers v. Cardinals -13 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 107 h 57 m | Show |
10* play on Arizona Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Arizona. Here are 4 reasons why: SF Defense: SF is ranked 28th in total defense and are dead last in points allowed (32.5 points a game) Arizona Defense: Arizona is ranked 4th in points allowed ( 17.5 points a game) and 2nd in yards allowed (297 yards a game). Running Game: Arizona is ranked 13th running the ball while SF is dead last stopping the run giving up 50 more yards a game than the next worse team. (193 yards a game) Arizona Wins: Arizona has won their last 3 games by double digits |
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11-06-16 | Lions +7 v. Vikings | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 138 h 59 m | Show |
10* play on Lions Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Detroit. Here are 4 reasons why: Margin Of Defeat:The Lions have lost all 4 of their games by an average of 4.5 points. Recent Games: Minnesota has lost 2 straight games scoring just 10 points in each game. Scoring: Minnesota is ranked 23rd averaging 19.9 points a game. Offense: Minnesota is one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL being ranked 31st in total offense and in the bottom 5 in passing and rushing |
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10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 159 h 48 m | Show |
10* play on Dallas Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Dallas. Here are 5 reasons why: Recent games: The Eagles have been held to 23 points or less the last 3 games. Winning Margin: Dallas has won by double digits in 3 of their last 4 games. Dallas Offense: Dallas leads the league in rushing and is ranked 7th in scoring Dallas Defense: Dallas has held their last 4 opponents to 17 points or less. Eagle Scoring: The Eagles have been held to 23 points or less in their last 3 games and have lost 2 of their last 3 games. |
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10-30-16 | Packers v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 32-33 | Loss | -126 | 155 h 47 m | Show |
10* play on ATL Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Atlanta. Here are 4 reasons why: Packer Scoring: Green Bay has been held to 26 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers is ranked 22nd in passing yards and Matt Ryan is ranked 1st. Offense: Atlanta is ranked 1st in total offense and Green Bay is ranked 28th. Atlanta Scoring: Atlanta leads the league in scoring and is the only team that averages over 30 points a game. |
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10-30-16 | Raiders +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-24 | Win | 101 | 151 h 24 m | Show |
10* Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Oakland. Here are 4 reasons why: Oakland Offense: Oakland has scored at least 28 points in 5 of their 7 games and are ranked 9th in total offense. Tampa Bay Offense: The Bucs are ranked 25th in total offense and 20th in scoring Home Record; The Bucs are 0-2 at home and have given up 64 points in the 2 games. Turnover Ratio: The Bucs are tied at 23rd in the give away take away TO ratio |
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10-30-16 | Jets -2.5 v. Browns | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 151 h 21 m | Show |
10* play on Jets Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on the New York Jets. Here are 5 reasons why: Losing Streak: The Browns have lost all 7 games this year and 10 straight dating back to last season. Quarterbacks:Cleveland has had to use 5 different QB's so far because of injury and poor performance. Defense: Cleveland is ranked 31st in total defense and 30th in points allowed. Rush Defense: Cleveland depends on their running game and the Jets are ranked 4th in stopping the run. Margin of Defeat: The Browns have lost by double digits in 3 of their last 4 games |
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10-23-16 | Patriots v. Steelers +7.5 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -120 | 136 h 28 m | Show |
10* play on Steelers Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Pittsburgh. Here are 4 reasons why: Injuries: The Patriots have 5 defensive players questionable for the game including 3 linebackers. Home Record: Pittsburgh is 3-0 at home this year and have won 7 straight games there. Margin of Victory: All of the Pittsburgh wins at home have been by double digits. Defense: Pittsburgh has held all 3 opponents to 16 points or less at home winning all 3 games. |
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10-23-16 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | 25-28 | Loss | -114 | 147 h 18 m | Show | |
10* play on Bills Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Buffalo. Here are 4 reasons why: Recent Meetings: Buffalo has won 4 of the last 5 games they have played and all 4 wins were by double digits. Running Game: The Bills have the league's 2nd leading rusher and are the league's best rushing team. Miami is 31st in the NFL stopping the run. Buffalo Defense: The Bills have won 4 straight games while their opponents averaged just 13.3 points in the 4 games with no team scoring 20 points. Miami On The Road: The Dolphins have lost all 3 of their road games averaging less than 14 points a game. |
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10-23-16 | Browns v. Bengals -9.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 147 h 24 m | Show |
10* play on Bengals Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on the Bengals. Here are 5 reasons why: Recent Meetings: Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland by at least 21 points in their last 4 wins against the Browns. Defense: Cleveland has given up at least 28 points in 5 of their 6 games and are ranked 29th in total defense in the NFL. Offense: Cincinnati is ranked 11th in total offense and 5th in passing. Scoring: Cleveland has been held to 20 points or less in 4 of 6 games. Recent Play: Cleveland has lost by double digits in 2 of their last 3 games |
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10-23-16 | Raiders +1.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 147 h 22 m | Show |
10* play on Raiders Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Oakland. Here are 4 reasons why: Home And Away: The Raiders are 3-0 on the road and the Jaguars are 0-2 at home. Raider Offense: QB Carr is ranked 5th in the league with 12 TD's and just 3 picks while the team is ranked 7th in total offense. Scoring: The Jaguars are ranked 21st in scoring (20.2) and in 3 of their 5 games scored 17 points or less. The Raiders are 11th in scoring (25.3) while they have scored at least 28 points in 4 of their 6 games. Margin of Victory: Thge Jaguars' 2 wins have been by a total of 4 points. |
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10-16-16 | Colts +3.5 v. Texans | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 134 h 39 m | Show |
Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on Indianapolis. Here are 4 reasons why: : Quarterback: Houston QB Osweiler is ranked 17th in passing and has thrown more interceptions(7) than TD's(6). The Colt's QB Luck is ranked 5th in passing with over 1,450 yards, 10 TD's and only 3 picks. Scoring: Houston is ranked dead last in the NFL in scoring averaging 16.4 points a game. The Colts average 27.4 points a game and are ranked 7th in scoring. Last Week: Houston was thumped 31-13 last week with just 214 total yards in offense. The Colts won their game 29-23 and Luck threw for 322 yards and 2 TD's. Injuries: Star DE J.J. Watt is out for the season and he is the Texan's best defensive player. |
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10-16-16 | Jaguars +3 v. Bears | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 126 h 22 m | Show |
Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on the Jaguars. Here are 5 reasons why: Chicago Scoring: The Bears are ranked 30th in the NFL in scoring averaging just 17 points a game. Point Differential: The Bears have lost 4 of 5 games by an average of 11 points, and their only win was a 3 point victory over Detroit. Jaguar Losses: Two of the 3 games the Jaguars lost were by 6 points total. ATS: Chicago has failed to cover the spread in 4 of their 5 games while the Jaguars have covered the spread in their last 2 games. Injuries: QB Jay Cutler is questionable for the game and the Bears have lost 3 of 4 games without him this year. |
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10-16-16 | Bengals +9 v. Patriots | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 14 m | Show |
Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on the Bengals. Here are 4 reasons why: Point Spread: The Bengals have covered the spread 4 of the last 5 games they have been an underdog. Bengal Offense: Cincinnati is ranked 9th in total offense averaging 366 yards a game and are 5th in passing with 282 yards a game. Patriot Pass Defense: New England gives up 259 yards through the air per game Scoring Totals: The Bengals give up and average of 22 points a game while the Patriots score an average of 23 points a game.. |
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10-16-16 | Eagles v. Redskins +3 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 126 h 13 m | Show |
Ricky Tran is recommending a 10* play (2% of bankroll) on the Washington. Here are 4 reasons why: Redskins defense: Washington has won 3 straight games and their defense has given up just 9 points on 3 field goals in all 3 games combined in the second half - a total of 6 quarters. Eagles Competition: Philadelphia has 2 of their 3 wins vs Cleveland and Chicago and they have a combined 1-9 record. Recent meetings: Washington won both meeting last year and the last 3 meetings overall. Reality Check: Considering the Lions were 23rd in the NFL in pass defense, they held QB Wentz to 238 yards in the air and 1 pick. Is he for real?
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10-09-16 | Giants v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 162 h 39 m | Show |
10* play on Packers |
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