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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh needs to win this game and get some extra help to make the playoffs. It's not impossible, just unlikely. The Ravens have already clinched home field advantage and they'll be turning to RG 3 under center. Regardless of all of these facts, I still like the Ravens to find a way to get the job done here and stick it to their division rival. Devlin Hodges had two INT's vs. the Jets last weekend and I think he'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. The Ravens turn to RG 3 and he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder. I expect the veteran to run this offense seamlessly, as he and Lamar Jackson do in fact have very similar play styles. Key Trends: - The Ravens concede just 18.1 PPG, good for third in the league. - Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in its last nine following a SU victory. - Pittsburgh is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a road favorite. The verdict: Clearly I believe the outright win is in the cards, but let's grab the points! |
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12-29-19 | Raiders +3.5 v. Broncos | 15-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Oakland Raiders. The Broncos are out of the playoffs and their only motivation today is to play spoiler vs. the Raiders here, who need to win and get some outside help before they can earn a playoff spot. The Raiders were disastrous last year and not much was expected of them this season either, so I think it is in fact a big testament to Jon Gruden's coaching skills that the team is in the position that it's in at the moment. The Raiders come in with momentum as well after a win over the Chargers last weekend. QB Derek Carr has a decent 20 TD's to just eight INT's. RB Josh Jacobs is a difference maker as well, as he has 1,150 rushing yards and seven TD's this year. Denver's looked a bit better of late, winning three of its last four, but it's clearly too little too late. Last week they got destroyed 23-3 on the road in KC. Key Trends: - Oakland is already 3-1 ATS this year as a road dog of seven points or less. - Denver is a terrible 6-13 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. The verdict: I like Gruden and Carr to continue to surprise people this season witn another victory in this crucial spot (that said, let's grab the points!) |
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12-29-19 | Eagles -4.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Eagles. Despite being down several players today, I like the Eagles to find a way to get the job done here vs. the Giants, who can only help themselves with another loss, as far as bettering their chances in the upcoming draft this summer. Philly can clinch the NFC East with a win today after beating the Cowboys last weekend. Carson Wentz has been better than average with a 26:7 TD:INT. New York has won two in a row, including a 41-35 OT victory vs. the Skins on the road last weekend. But playing the hapless Skins is one thing and facing this playoff hopeful Eagles team is quite another. QB Daniel Jones has a 23:11 TD:INT. Key Trends: - Philadelphia is 3-1 ATS already this season off a division game. - The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven off an upset win as an underdog. - The Giants are only 4-12 ATS in their last 16 as a home dog (which includes going 0-4 ATS this season.) The verdict: I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards; lay the points! |
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles +2 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys come in off a big 44-21 win at home over the Rams last weekend. Previous to that they'd dropped three straight. This isn't a letdown spot for Dallas, as a win today will clinch it the division. I just think it's terrible inconsistency in its play from week to week once again comes back to haunt it here. The Eagles' are 7-7 also and if they want to earn the division crown, they have to win this game today and also next week vs. the Giants. That's obviously a very "doable" task and I think that the home field advantage does matter in this instance. The Eagles pulled away for a crucial 37-27 win over Washington last week and I believe they carry that momenumt over here. Key Trends: - The Cowboys are a poor 2-3 ATS in their last five as a road favorite of three points or less (including 0-1 ATS this year.) - Philadelphia is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of three points or less. The verdict: I like Carson Wentz and the home side to grind out a victory in front of the home town crowd; that said, grab the points! |
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12-22-19 | Jaguars v. Falcons -7 | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams come in off rare victories, but neither will be involved in the post-season. In this meaningless Week 16 contest, I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it's all said and done. The Falcons though have won four of their last six games, while the Jags had lost six in a row before picking up a win over the hapless Raiders last weekend. The Jags needed a miracle to come from behind at 16-3 at halftime. Atlanta QB' Matt Ryan is a difference maker for me, as the veteran has 3,749 passing yards, to go along with 24 TD's and 12 INT's. Key Trends: - Atlanta is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. - Jacksonville is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games (including 0-3 ATS this year.) The verdict: As mentioned above, I like Ryan to easily outduel his rookie counterpart; lay the points! |
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12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans +3 | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 48 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Titans. Here's another one where I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it's all said and done. New Orleans is in the playoffs, but it's still fighting for home field. The Titans though lost to Houston last weekend, meaning that this is a "must win" contest. And I believe that matters today. It sets up as a letdown/trap for the Saints, who saw veteran QB Drew Brees break Peyton Manning's all time TD record in last week's 34-7 blowout victory at home over the Colts. Ryan Tannehill isn't given much credit, but I think the Titans' QB is a difference maker today, so far he has 2,272 yards and a sharp 17:6 TD:INT. Key Trends: - Interestingly, the Saints are just 1-3 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season over the last two years. - The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a home dog (including 1-0 ATS this season.) The verdict: Look for the "hungrier" team to pull it off this afternoon; that said, grab the points! |
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12-22-19 | Steelers v. Jets +3 | 10-16 | Win | 105 | 48 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the New York Jets. Following a pattern here with this all early three-game NFL report, sees the "home field advantage" as a deciding factor in this contest in my opinion. Pittsburgh "has" to win this game if it has any hopes of a playoff spot. Last week the Steelers fell 17-10 to the Bills and another loss here will be the final nail in the coffin to their season. Of course, Devlin Hodges will get the call under center for Pittsburgh today, its third string QB, who looked terrible last week at home vs. the Bills. Sam Darnold has looked decent at times this year and with a game in Buffalo next weekend to finish off the 2019/20 campaign, I believe he'll be given the green light to test this now weary Steelers' defenese, which has had to shoulder the load all year. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games. - New York is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as a home underdog. The verdict: I think this one sets up nicely for the home side; that said, grab the points! |
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12-21-19 | Rams v. 49ers -6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -101 | 80 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS is on the San Francisco 49ers. While the 49ers' surge has slowed down over the last month, I think they bounce back here and destroy this "on again, off again" Rams team. San Francisco will be plenty motivated here after falling at home to the lowly Falcons last weekend. It was a difficult spot though, as they had just come off a massive shootout road win over the the Saints. But I think the home side gets back on track in this favorable spot and lays the hammer down early and often. The Rams were crushed by the Cowboys last weekend and I think they'll have a hard time mustering up much of an attack here either. LA's defense has been stout so far this season, but I believe it takes a step back here vs. Jimmy Garoppolo and company. Key Trends: - LA is only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as an underdog. - The Rams are a poor 2-3 ATS in their last five following a road loss. - San Fran is 5-1 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: I like the focussed 49ers to deal the knock out blow to the Rams frustrating season; lay the points! |
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12-16-19 | Colts +10 v. Saints | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -121 | 37 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* U OF THE U is on the Colts. The Saints have locked up the NFC South, but they're still playing for better positioning. The Colts' red hot start to the season is firmly in the rear view mirror, but they can still make a wild card spot with a victory today. The Saints' defense was exposed early and often by the 49ers last week and I think that Jacoby Brissett and the Colts' offense will have their opportunities today. Clearly the Colts' defense will have its hands full, but I expect the visitors to fight until the final whistle. Key Trends: - Indy is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after allowing 30 or more points in its last game (including 2-0 ATS this year.) - New Orleans is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I do indeed feel that the Colts can keep this one competitive throughout vs. a very shaky Saints' secondary; grab the points! |
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12-15-19 | Bills +1.5 v. Steelers | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 35 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* DESTROYER is on the Bills. These teams play similar styles, but I think that the Bills have a much better QB in place in Josh Allen, over Steelers third-stringer Devlin Hodges. Hodges had 147 yards and a TD last week vs. the Cardinals, but I believe the Steelers' offense will struggle to do anything today vs. a Bills' defense which is conceding only 16.3 PPG. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after posting less than 150 passing yards in its previous game. - Buffalo is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven on the road. - The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road dog. The verdict: Look for Allen to be the key to our victory today; play on the Bills! |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans -3 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -102 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on the Titans. Houston is 8-5. Tennessee is 8-5. Two teams enter, only one will leave with a victory. This is obviously a big game. Momentum is a big part of sports success and right now, the Titans have a ton of it. The Texans on other hand have been floundering of late. Suffice it to say, I expect both these trends to continue over in a big way here. Houston lost 38-24 at home to Denver last weekend, while Tennessee enters having won four in a row behind the resurgent play of QB Ryan Tannehill. Key Trends: - Tennessee is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite. - Houston is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The verdict: I think Tannehill is playing as good or better than Texans' QB DeShaun Watson. However, I like the Titans in every other aspect here and that makes the home side the correct call for sure; lay the short points! |
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12-12-19 | Jets +16.5 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -125 | 86 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the New York Jets. I'll be the first to tell you that LaMar Jackson is deserving of the MVP award this year. The dynamic QB continues to set the league on fire and now his team is starting to play better on the defensive side of the ball as well. But the Jets have won four of five after last week's 21-20 win over Miami. In that contest, RB Le'Veon Bell did not play, but he's ready to go tonight. New York' QB Sam Darnold has looked brilliant one week and pretty ordinary the next, but the pivot is playing his best of the season right now, going for nine major scores and just two picks over his last five games. The Jets have to run the table to earn a wild card spot, so tonight's contest is "do or die" for New York. Key Trends: - The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eightafter two or more consecutive losses vs. the spread. - The Ravens are only 8-15 ATS in their last 23 at home (including just 2-4 ATS this season.) The verdict: I believe the "hungrier" team throws a big scare into the entitled home side; grab the points! |
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12-09-19 | Giants +10.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* WINNER is on the New York Giants. Can the Giants win this one outright? Anything's possible of course, but I don't think it's likely. That said, with extended time off and with one last chance to prove himself, I think that Giants' veteran QB Eli Manning has an effecient enough game to keep his team in this one late. Manning has a lot to play for here, not only pride but with a chance to put the final nail in the coffin of the Eagles' playoff hopes. Manning has 566 passing yards, two TD's and two INT's this year in his limited time. Philly doesn't allow many rushing yards (91), but keep your eyes on RB Saquon Barkley all the same, as he has 544 rushing yards and two TD's this year. Philly has Washington on the road next weekend, followed by a home game vs. Dallas and then on the road vs. these very Giants to finish it off. Can Carson Wentz and the home side stay focussed on the task at hand? Key Trends: - New York is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 as a road dog. - The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. - The Eagles are 0-3 ATS in their last three as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Bengals' QB Andy Dalton responded with a big game in his first game back after being benched and I think that Manning has the same effort here; that said, grab the points! |
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12-08-19 | Chiefs v. Patriots -2.5 | 23-16 | Loss | -135 | 102 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Patriots. KC beat Oakland 40-9 last week, but I think the Chiefs will have their hands full with a Patriots team coming off a listless 28-22 setback to the Texans. The annual parade of Tom Brady nay-sayers is out in full force now that the Pats' offense has been pretty lacklustre over the last month or so. Both teams are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, but I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor today. Key Trends: - KC is only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with winning records (including only 2-3 ATS this season.) - NE is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of seven points or less. The verdict: This is a spot in which Brady and New England have dominated in over the years and with their backs against the wall, I look for them to deliver in front of the home town crowd; lay the short points! |
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12-08-19 | Broncos v. Texans -9 | 38-24 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Houston Texans. Houston is 8-4 and still looking for more as it tries to lock down a playoff spot. Denver is coming off a 23-20 win over the hapless Chargers, but at 4-8 it literally has less than a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans are firing on all cylinders in winning four of their last five. QB DeShaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins are both ranked in the Top 5 in their respective positions. The defense catches a break here as well facing a Denver unit which has struggled with offensive consistency all year. Key Trends: - Denver is just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 on the road. - The Broncos are only 7-9 ATS in their last 16 vs. teams with winning reocrds. The verdict: With tough upcoming games to end the year, this is a contest which the Texans can ill afford to look past. Lay the points, expect a rout! |
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12-08-19 | Bengals +10 v. Browns | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Bengals. The Bengals would love nothing more than to play spoiler on the Browns here, as another loss will essentially be the nail in the coffin as far as their playoff hopes are concerned. Cleveland is 5-7 and Cincinnati is 1-11. The Bengals destroyed the Jets 22-6 last week for their first win of the year and after that impressive performance on both sides of the ball, I look for them to carry that momentum over here. Last week the Browns lost 20-13 to the Steelers and I think they struggle once again with consistency on both sides of the ball. Key Trends: - The Bengals are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 as a road dog (including 4-1 ATS this season.) - The Browns are only 9-11 ATS in their last 20 at home (including only 2-3 ATS this year.) The verdict: I like Bengals' veteran QB Andy Dalton to severely outplay Browns' QB Baker Mayfield and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming down to the wire; grab the points! |
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12-08-19 | 49ers v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 48-46 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the New Orleans Saints. The 49ers are now 10-2 after falling 20-17 to Baltimore last week. San Francisco faces a 10-2 Saints team which enters off a big 26-18 victory over Atlanta. In the early going all the talk has been about the 49ers' defensive play, which has been pretty good for the most part this season. But note that the Saints are actually fourth in the league in sacks with 40 so far this year. New Orleans has also scored at least 26 points in ts last three games, with QB Drew Brees throwing for 726 yards and seven TD's in that span. Key Trends: - The 49ers are only 1-4 ATS in their last five off a road cover where it lost SU as an underdog. - The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a road victory (including 3-1 ATS this year.) The verdict: I think San Francisco stumbles in this difficult road venue; lay the short points! |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Chicago Bears. This line has fluctuated from 2.5 to 3 throughout the week. I have 2.5. I think the Bears will win this one outright, but I'm going to grab the points in what should be a competitive battle until the end. Dallas got throughouly beatdown by the Bills at home on Thanksgiving. The offense wasn't horrible, as Prescott had 355 passing yars, but I believe the pivot takes a step back on the short week and at chilly Soldier Field. Chicago on the other hand won 24-20 over Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, coming from behind to win. QB Mitchell Trubisky finally showed some signs of life and I don't think there's any reason he won't carry that momentum over here. Key Trends: - The Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. the NFC North. - Dallas is only 3-4 ATS in its last seven after a loss by ten points or more. - Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home underdog. The verdict: The Bears HAVE to win this one to keep pace in their division, while Dallas enters with a one game lead in the NFC East. I like Trubisky to outplay Prescott, but that said, let's grab the points! |
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12-02-19 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* BLOOD-BATH is on the Vikings. I think "revenge" works as an angle here as Minnesota has lost five straight in this series. The Vikes have had a week off to prepare for this one though. With the Lions, Chargers, Packers and Bears stil to go, this is clearly a game that the Vikes can't let slip away. Seattle allows 282 passing yards per game and Vikes' QB Kirk Cousins has been "lights out" this year, with 21 TD's and three INT's to go along with 2,756 passing yards. The Vikes allow 268 passing yards and only 94.2 rushing. I think Wilson is going to have a difficult time moving the ball effeciently today vs. this top ranked defensive unit. Key Trends: - The Vikes are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 after losing a contest ATS (including 3-1 ATS this year.) - The Hawks are only 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite (including just 1-4 ATS this season.) The verdict: In a contest which I see coming "down to the wire," let's grab the points! |
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12-01-19 | Patriots v. Texans +3.5 | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 32 h 11 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Houston Texans. The Patriots are 10-1, but they've faced some pathetic competition this year. Pats' QB Tom Brady is only averaging 5.6 YPA over his last four games. Houston comes in off a win over the Colts and is in dire need of another victory here to keep pace for the Wild Card. Also note that it's been reported that several NE defensive players have the flu this week. Key Trends: - Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four off a no ATS cover where it happen to also win SU as the favorite. - NE is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home no cover where it won SU as the favorite. The verdict: I think Brady finally gets exposed here and while I wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, in the end I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-01-19 | 49ers v. Ravens -5.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Baltimore Ravens. The 49ers have struggled this year vs. mobile QB's, including in the slim win over the Cardinals earlier in the year. The 49ers defense has been great, but note that San Fran has actually conceded at least 25 points in three of its past four games. Jimmy Garropolo has looked brilliant at times this year, but also very pedestrian in others. The Ravens' defense looked shaky to begin the season, but the unit has quietly been dominating over the last month, making DeShaun Watson, Tom Brady and Jared Goff all look very ordinary. And what more can be said about Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson which hasn't already been said by a million talking heads out there? Jackson continues to put up huge numbers and I think he'll continue that torrid pace in this important home game. Key Trends: - Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five following a SU win. - 49ers are interestingly just 1-4 ATS in their last five off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The verdict: I think this West Coast team stumbles in this difficult East coast venue; lay the points! |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts | 31-17 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans destroyed the hapless Jaguars 42-20 last week, but I think they'll take a step back here in this difficult road venue vs. a Colts team on the rebound after a 20-17 setback to the Texans last Thursday. With extra time off to prepare, I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor today. Indianpolis won 19-17 in Tennessee earlier in the year and note that the Titans are just 1-10 in their last 11 in this building overall. Key Trends: - Tennessee is just 9-13 ATS In its last 22 on the road (including only 2-3 ATS this year.) - The Titans are a poor 3-5 ATS in their last eight after a victory by 14 points or more (including 0-2 ATS this season.) - Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less (including 3-0 ATS this year.) The verdict: Look for the Colts' defense to step up here and take Titans' backup QB Ryan Tannehill down a notch after last week's big performance; lay the short points! |
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12-01-19 | Eagles v. Dolphins +11 | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Miami Dolphins. The Eagles are on the ropes after their 19-7 loss to the Seahawks last weekend. With a chance to finish off their opponents playoff chances, I think the Dolphins use that as motivation today to keep this contest closer than what this spread would suggest. Eagles' QB Carson Wentz doesn't have a lot to work with this season, so his team's offense issues aren't entirely his fault. Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has 1,901 passing yards with ten TD's and ten INT's and I think he'll be able to match Wentz's performance today no problem. If not surpass it. Key Trends: - The Eagles are a terrible 7-11 ATS in their last 18 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including just 1-2 ATS this season.) - The Dolphins are a perfect 2-0 ATS in their last two as a home dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: The Eagles have admittedly gotten more out of this line-up in the last two year's than I could have expected, but I think it finally completely unravels this weekend in Mimai (that said, grab the points!) |
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3.5 | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. I said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think that the Bengals are going to go winless this year. 0-11 Cincinnati has a great opportunity to finally get off the schneid at home though vs. the inconsistent 4-7 Jets. New York comes in off a satisfying 34-3 win over the Raiders. The Bengals lost 16-10 to the Steelers last time out. Andy Dalton finally returns under center for the Bengals and I think he'll be the difference maker here. Key Trends: - The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite (including 0-2 ATS this year.) - New York is only 7-13 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 2-3 ATS this season.) - The Bengals are still 17-10 ATS in their last 27 as an underdog. The verdict: All good things must come to an end. And in this case, I believe the Bengals' horrible losing streak does in fact end today. That said though, let's grab the points! |
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12-01-19 | Browns -1 v. Steelers | 13-20 | Loss | -119 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Cleveland Browns. It's a big game for these two division rivals, as the winner will continue its quest for a playoff wild card, while the other's season will essentially come to an end (barring a run of a lifetime, combined with many other external factors working in its favor). The Browns beat the Steelers at home two weeks ago and they won last week as well. With a victory today the Browns will have an identical record with Pittsburgh. The Browns' defensive play of late is the difference maker for me, as over the last three games they've allowed 15.7 PPG. And that's bad news for Steelers' rookie QB Devlin Hodges, who I think is being thrown to the wolves in this fierce rivarly. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is interestingly just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 after playing a game on the road (including just 1-2 ATS this year.) - The Browns are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 vs. divisional opponents, including 2-0 ATS this season. The verdict: Cleveland is finally starting to play up to its potential and I look for it to hammer the Steelers here on their home turf; lay the short points! |
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11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* START-UP is on the Lions. Whether it's Jeff Driskel or David Blough under center for Detroit today, I think the home side takes the inconsistent Bears down to the wire (at the very least.) Does Mitchell Trubisky have the advantage at the QB position today over his counterparts? While Chicago did beat Detroit earlier in the year, it's gone 2-5 since, due in large part to an offense which averages just 17.1 PPG. Statistically these defenses are similar in many categories as well. Key Trends: - Chicago is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year. - The Bears are only 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite of seven points or less. - Detroit is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by six points or less. The verdict: I think home field does matter in this one; grab the points! |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* ROUT is on the 49ers. San Fran is 9-1 and Green Bay is 8-2. Green Bay beat the Panthers two weeks ago, but I think it'll struggle here after its bye week. San Francisco's road ahead becomes very difficult, making this a very important home game. Key Trends: - The Packers are a poor 6-13 ATS in their last 19 after a SU win. - The 49ers are 3-0 ATS this year in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3. The verdict: As stated above, I think the time off will in fact hurt the Pack here, while I expect the home side to return to form; lay the points! |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Titans. The Jags come in off a loss to Indianapolis, while the Titans come in off their bye week. Jacksonville welcomed back QB Nick Foles last week, but the offense only put up 13 points. Tennessee on the other hand scored a huge win over the Chiefs before its bye week and it's still now very much back in the playoff hunt with QB Ryan Tannehill under center. Key Trends: - Jacksonville is 0-3 ATS in its last three off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. - Tennessee is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a win by three points or less. The verdict: The Jags are in trouble as they continue to make changes at QB. Tennessee has had a week off to game plan and I expect it to execute; lay the points! |
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11-24-19 | Broncos v. Bills -3.5 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Bills. I like the Bills to lay the hammer down here. New England has a tough game at home vs. the Cowboys and if it does happen to falter, then Buffalo has a golden opportunity this weekend to make up some ground. Buffalo's schedule ahead is a difficult one as well, so this is a contest in which it simply can't "look ahead" in. Buffalo posted 424 yards of offense vs. the Dolphins last weekend. Denver came close to defeating the Vikings last weekend, but an epic second half collapse has the team still reeling from it on Sunday in my opinion. Rookie Brandon Allen will get the call under center for the Broncos and while he looked decent last week vs. the Vikes, I think he'll struggle in this difficult road venue and vs. this tough Buffalo defense. Key Trends: - The Broncos are only 2-8 ATS in their last ten off a non-conference game (including 0-2 ATS this season.) - The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as a favorite. The verdict: Buffalo's defense is ranked third in the league and I expect it to play a pivotal role in a lop-sided home destruction; lay the points! |
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11-24-19 | Giants v. Bears -6 | 14-19 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Chicago Bears. The Giants are coming out of their bye week and I think they'll struggle to get much production here vs. this hungry home side. Chicago comes in off a loss on the road to the Rams and essentially needs to win this game or its playoff hopes are done. New York QB Daniel Jones has shown some flashes of brilliance, but he's been poor for the most part, posting eight INT's and fumbling it 13 times already. Jones is getting little help in the run game either, as Saquon Barkley has only 402 rushing yards and two TD's in seven games. Yes Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky has taken a step back this year, but he has a big opportunity this weekend to turn things around. While the offense has been more "miss" than "hit" this year, the defense remains a strong point, conceding only 17.4 PPG. Key Trends: - Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record. - The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. - New York is a pathetic 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing 30 or more points in its previous outing. The verdict: The turnover prone Jones is in for another rude awakening at chilly Soldier Field this afternoon; lay the points! |
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11-24-19 | Panthers +11 v. Saints | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Carolina Panthers. This is essentially a do or die game for the Panthers as they try to keep pace with the 8-2 Saints. New Orleans comes in off a 34-17 victory over the Bucs. Carolina' QB Kyle Allen had four INT's in a loss to the Falcons last weekend. Allen though will be given the green light here vs. a banged up Saints' secondary which is conceding 250 yards per game through the air. The Saints have a great pass rush and the Panthers have been susceptible in allowing sacks, but Carolina can keep opponents honest with RB Christian McCaffrey. Key Trends: - The Panthers are 2-0 ATS in their last two off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. - Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog. - New Orleans is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I'm banking on a competitive war until the final moments; grab the points! |
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11-17-19 | Bears +6.5 v. Rams | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Bills/Dolphins. Miami has won two in a row and it'll now look to build and to try and give the Bills a second straight loss in a row. For Buffalo, it's blazing start to the season is going to be in the rear view mirror if it can't start putting some production on the board. When these teams met earlier in the year though, it was Buffalo that laid the hammer down in the 31-21 victory and I believe a similar final combined score is on deck here as well. Key Trends: - The Bills have seen the total go over the number in six of their last eight after a loss by six points or less. - The Fish have seen the total soar over in nine of their last 12 as a home dog. The verdict: Buffalo's pissed about its last second loss in Cleveland last weekend and knows it has to get out and push the pace here. The Dolphins are riding high after a two-game win streak and Ryan Fitzpatrick and company won't be backing down either. This one could go OVER by half time! Chicago Bears +6 1/2 @ LA Rams 8:20 EST RICKY'S 10* SUNDAY NIGHT ATS 'BLOOD-BATH!' |
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11-14-19 | Steelers +3 v. Browns | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes the Browns REALLY need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt. But guess what? The Steelers REALLY need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt as well. Both "Faker" Mayfield of the Browns and Mason Rudolph of the Steelers have been pretty bad this year, so I'm classifying these pivots as a "wash" today. But Pittsburgh's defense has been tremendous during its four game win streak and I believe it'll be the difference maker tonight as well. Ever since the Steelers acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick, the defense has been "lights out" and I expect that trend to continue here. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, including 3-1 ATS this year. - Cleveland is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite including only 1-3 ATS this season. The verdict: As stated throughout my analysis, I believe Pittsburgh's defense will step up and win the game here; grab the points! |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Seattle Seahawks. So far everything has gone perfectly for the 49ers, in that almost every bounce and every close call has gone their way during their perfect 8-0 start. But they certainly didn't look like "World beaters" in their 28-25 win over Arizona last weekend. Seattle hasn't been perfect, but it's been damn close this year. And to me, it only appears as if Russell Wilson and company are only getting better. On both sides of the ball. San Francisco is starting to show signs of fatigue and teams appear to be "figuring them out." And now they face Wilson, who has 22 TD's and only one INT. Key Trends: - Seattle is 4-0 ATS in its last four road game vs. teams with winning SU home records. - San Francisco is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite, including a money-burning 3-3 ATS this season. The verdict: I think the Hawks' veteran experience in this contest could in fact help in posting an outright upset. That said, let's grab the points in what appears to be a very highly competitive matchup! |
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11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* U OF THE U is on the Tennessee Titans. It's do or die essentially for the Titans this week as they look to move back to .500. Titans' backup QB Ryan Tannehill is 2-1 in his three starts with a 99.7 passer rating. Patrick Mahomes could get the start for the Chiefs here. Then again, maybe he won't and backup Matt Moore will get the nod. Moore is 1-1 with a 100.9 passer rating so far in filling in for the injured Mahomes. The uncertainty surrounding the pivot position, whether Mahomes does in fact get the call here, isn't doing the visiting side any favors in my opinion. KC is dealing with significant injuries to its defense as well, with CB Kendall Fuller and DE's Frank Clark and Alex Okafor all listed as questionable. Key Trends: - The Titans are 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. - KC is a poor 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU victory. The verdict: I like Ryan Tannehill at home to give the Chiefs everything they can handle. The public and the books are sleeping on Tannehill and how good he's playing right now; grab the points! |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Oakland Raiders. The Chargers and Raiders are both desperately in need of a victory here. LA has won back-to-back games over the Bears and Packers, while Oakland is coming off a pivotal win over the Lions, keeping them in second place in the division. Oakland's defense and especially its secondary has been suspect this year, but Derek Carr and the offense has been much better than expected. TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs have both been great and I think LA's defense is going to struggle here to contain them. Green Bay's offense looked horrible last week, but it did in Week 1 as well vs. the impotent Bears. I'm not convinced that LA's defensive numbers over the last two games are completely indicative of how the unit will perform moving forward. And on the short week, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side. Key Trends: - LA is 0-4 ATS in its last four off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. - Oakland is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three a home dog of three points or less. The verdict: I think the Raiders' defense does just enough and I look for Carr to continue to progress with the dynamic young pieces around him; play on Oakland! |
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11-03-19 | Patriots -3 v. Ravens | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 49 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG TIGER is on the New England Patriots. If Tom Brady can put together a perfect season and then win the Super Bowl, do you think he'd retire? It would be the perfect ending to a legendary career. New England is well on its way to doing that this season and backed by the league's No. 1 defense, which is putting up historic numbers, I think the Patriots come in and take care of business on the national stage. Brady has a solid offensive unit around, but his O-line has been exceptional. The Ravens enter hungry for a victory, but they're off their bye-week, so I expect the home side to be a bit "flat" to open this one. Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson has already struggled vs. some of the elite defenses he's seen and I expect that trend to continue here. Key Trends: - New England is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 after allowing 14 points or less in its last outing. - Baltimore is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten after a win by ten or more points. The verdict: I don't even expect this one to be close at all, as I think Jackson and company stumble against the No. 1 defense in the league; lay the short points! |
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11-03-19 | Jets -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* TOILET BOWL is on the New York Jets. Miami only averages 11 PPG, while New York averages 11.1. The Dolphins though have the worst defense in the league, allowing an average of 34 PPG. Miami got out to a decent start vs. the Steelers last weekend, but then it got blown out in the end. Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick committed four fumbles last weekend. Key Trends: - New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. - Miami is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 after a loss by ten points or more. The verdict: Jets' QB Sam Darnold won AFC player of the week in New York's only victory this year and now facing the leagues worst defensive unit, I believe he'll be the difference maker in the end; lay the short points! |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers -14 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Dolphins are 0-6 and they have nothing to play for. They almost won last week vs. the Bills, but after that setback and once again making a switch at QB to Ryan Fitzpatrick again, I simply can't see the visiting side putting up any sort of fight whatsoever this evening. The Steelers are coming off their bye-week, which couldn't have come at a more opportune time for QB Mason Rudolph, who was dealing with concussion like symptoms. Look for the home side to lean heavily on dynamic RB James Conner again as the offense looks to limit mistakes and control the game. Key Trends: - Miami is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 as a road dog. - Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in its last four MNF games. The verdict: I look for the above scenario to play out this evening; lay the points! |
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10-27-19 | Panthers +6 v. 49ers | Top | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is 4-2 and it's coming out of its bye week hungry for a victory and to give the 6-0 49ers their first loss of the season. Carolina has won four straight with rookie pivot Kyle Allen under center. San Francisco has averaged 172 yards per game in the early going and its defense has been tremendous. Carolina averages 27 PPG and it concedes 22. San Fran averages 26 PPG and it allows only ten. Key Trends: - Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog (including 2-0 ATS this season.) - San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite, including a money-burning 2-2 ATS this year. The verdict: Yes the 49ers sport better seasonal averages, but Carolina's early numbers are skewed with Newton having played the first two games. Carolina comes in rested and red hot and while I wouldn't be surprised by an outright victory, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can! |
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10-27-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Lions | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 119 h 14 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG TIGER is on the New York Giants. The Lions "hot start" is firmly in the rear view mirror. At 2-5, the Giants are also looking at another miserable season, but that doesn't mean that they won't be fighting tooth and nail here. New York QB Daniel Jones has something to prove this week. Last weekend Giants' RB Saquon Barkley had 72 yards and a TD. The Lions' though looked terrible in their 42-30 loss to the Vikes this past Sunday. Matt Stafford has been decent for Detroit, but he's not going to have top RB Kerryon Johnson to help him. Key Trends: - New York is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog of 7 points or less. - The Giants are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three off an upset loss as a favorite. - Detroit is a terrible 4-7 ATS in their last 11 off a division game. The verdict: In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab up the points! |
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10-27-19 | Chargers +4.5 v. Bears | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 119 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* TOP DOG is on the LA Chargers. The Chargers had three chances to punch it in from the 1 yard line last week to win vs. the Titans, but Melvin Gordon and Philip Rivers were unable to get the job done. The Chargers' season literally hangs in the balance in this one after starting 2-5. The Bears have been all over the map from week to week with their consistency, and they enter this one at 3-3. For the most part I'm basing this selection on the starting QB's. Mitchell Trubisky has taken a major step back this year. That's due to a number of different reasons, but regardless I absolutely like Rivers to come in focussed and to deliver the goods. Key Trends: - Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 on the road. - Bears are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following a SU home loss. The verdict: This is a contest which I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last; grab the points! |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -125 | 119 h 13 m | Show |
My 8* SMASH-JOB is on the Buffalo Bills. The Bills offense has been "good enough" this year, but their defense has been exceptional. Overall Buffalo averages only 20.2 PPG, but it concedes just 15.2. Buffalo' QB Josh Allen had two TD's vs. the Dolphins last weekend. The Eagles are down and out in my opinion after their 37-10 loss to the Cowboys. They aren't coming to a friendly place to face a team that's going to "look past" them either. After years of missing the playoffs, the Bills are on a mission this season. Besides, Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has looked horrible this year and he continues to suffer from a poor running game and weak offensive line. Key Trends: - Buffalo has scored 121 points so far this year and it's allowed an AFC low 91 against. - The Eagles are a poor 1-4 ATS this year following an ATS loss. The verdict: I think the home side can smell the blood in the water and I look for it to deliver the knock out blow to Philadelphia's season this weekend; lay the short points! |
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10-21-19 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 59 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the New England Patriots. I don't think the Patriots "look past" the Jets on Monday Night Football. In fact, I think Tom Brady and company are planning something big this evening. As good as Brady is though right now, note that it's been his defense which has gotten the job done this season, allowing only 234.7 YPG total. Key Trends: - The Jets offensive line has conceded 25 sacks so far this year. - The Patriots are avearging four sacks per game. The verdict: New York is a better football team with Sam Darnold under center as evidenced by last week's upset win over the inconsistent Cowboys. However, Darnold faces what is shaping up to be one of the best defenses in the history of the NFL; expect a lop-sided destruction and lay the points with confidence! |
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10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3.5 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Chicago Bears. All good things have to come to an end eventually. The Saints are 5-1, but I think they're going to take a step back here in this tough venue. It's difficult to win and cover on the road in the NFL and after last week's 13-6 victory at Jacksonville, I believe the Saints will in fact finally have their letdown here. Chicago had won three straight before a 24-21 loss to the Raiders in London two weeks ago. But with a week off to prepare and focus, I look for the home side to take advantage. Key Trends: - Chicago has one of the best defenses in the league, allowing 83 rushing yards and 229.2 passing yards with 17 sacks and four INT's this year. The verdict: Teddy Bridgewater has filled in admirably for Drew Brees to this point, but after he falters this weekend, look for New Orleans to use the setback as the stage to re-introduce their super start veteran pivot; this one has ATS blowout written all over it! |
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10-20-19 | Texans +1 v. Colts | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Texans. Houston comes in on top form, off back to back big wins and I look for it to steam roll the Colts here, who enter off their bye-week. Houston smoked the Falcons in Week 5 by posting 53 points and then it beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Colts beat the Chiefs as well, but then they went into their bye week. I think that rest is going to least to rust for the 3-2 Colts. Key Trends: - The Texans are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 as a road underdog. - The Colts are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after covering the spread in three out of their last four. The verdict: I like DeShaun Watson to continue his incredible play and for Houston to take advantage of this "flat" Colts side; grab the short points! |
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10-20-19 | Dolphins v. Bills -16.5 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Buffalo Bills. I think the 4-1 Bills lay the hammer down from start to finish on the 0-5 Dolphins. The Fish have been blown out big time in four of their five games and in my opinion, everything points to another blowout here as well. The Bills are coming out of their bye week and they are expecting RB Devin Singletary to return to the line-up. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 15 points or less in its previous game. - The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four following their bye-week. - The Dolphins are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 on the road. The verdict: Miami is looking to tank every game at this point as it tries to earn the top draft picks; this one has ATS blowout written all over it! |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | 20-7 | Loss | -106 | 122 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* DELIGHT is on the LA Rams. I have been surprised by the 49ers, but I'm still not convinced by Jimmy Garopolo and company. Yes the Rams have suffered a Super Bowl letdown this year and yes they'll be without RB Todd Gurley, but LA's offense still ranks in the top 10 right now. With Jared Goff leading the show at home, I believe a beatdown is in the cards here. San Francisco comes in complacent and flat in my opinion after its great start and on the short week after the MNF victory over the Browns. Key Trends: - San Francisco is still only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. the division. - LA is 3-1 ATS vs. the conference this year. - The Rams are 3-1 ATS as a favorite this season. The verdict: Look for San Fran to finally have a letdown here; lay the short points! |
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10-13-19 | Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 119 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* CROWD PLEASER is on the Bengals. The Bengals are 0-5 and their season is over. But the team will still try to win games and build momentum as it looks to re-build and look-ahead to next year. They'll want to play spoiler here for a Ravens team which is 3-2, but which has also shown great inconsistency from week to week so far this year as well. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range (including 1-0 ATS this season.) - The Bengals are still 8-5 ATS in their last 13 vs. the division. - The Ravens are a poor 6-10 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game on the road. The verdict: I like this under the radar underdog to push its host to the limit; grab the points! |
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10-13-19 | Texans +5 v. Chiefs | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the Houston Texans. Houston is 3-2 and KC is 4-1. The Chiefs are a "Joe Public" team with Patrick Mahomes under center, but I think that Houston and DeShaun Watson can keep pace down the stretch. The outright isn't out of the question, but this is a contest which I envision being decided late. Don't think Houston can keep pace with the Chiefs high-flying offense? Better think again after the Texans posted the resounding 53-32 win over the Falcons last weekend. The Chiefs on the other hand come in off their first loss of the season, inexplicably falling to the Colts at home. Key Trends: - Houston is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road dog (including 2-0 this year.) - Kansas City is a terrible 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset loss as a favorite. The verdict: I think the stage is set for another outright upset. That said, let's grab up all these points! |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 32-28 | Loss | -101 | 119 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns. For this pick I'm looking at it from an overall situational stand point and in my opinion, this one simply means "more" to the home side. The Browns are off a terrible showing on Monday Night Football vs. the 49ers and they'll be looking to move back to .500 with a small upset at home here. The Hawks on the other hand have to travel across country for an early afternoon non-conference contest, after their thrilling win at home over division rival LA. I'm not convinced that Seattle really does have the "better" team on paper. The Browns issues mostly revolve around themselves shooting themselves in the foot. I expect a much better effort at home from Cleveland and I do indeed feel this also sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Key Trends: - Seattle is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two more consecutive victories. - Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 14 points or less in its previous game. The verdict: I expect Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb to deliver the goods on their home field; grab the point/s! |
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10-06-19 | Colts +12 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts had a letdown last week, falling at home to the lowly Raiders. Indianapolis and Jacoby Brissett though have been solid and competitive this season, after not many gave them hope after starting QB Andrew Luck retired at the start of the campaign. Clearly Indianapolis got caught “looking ahead” to this difficult matchup. Kansas City is 4-0, but it had to come from behind on the road to beat the Lions 34-30 last weekend. Patrick Mahomes is willing his team to victory, but the Chiefs’ defense has been terrible overall. I think Brissett and the Colts can keep this one competitive down the stretch. Key Trends: - The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. - The Chiefs are interestingly only 2-7 ATS in their last nine at home vs. Indianapolis. The verdict: The Colts upset the Titans 19-17 in Nashville in Week 2, so the team knows how to compete on the road. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Panthers | 27-34 | Loss | -106 | 116 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both divisional foes enter at 2-2. The Panthers got an effective outing out of backup QB Kyle Allen in their upset win over the Texans, while Gardner Minshew has led his team to back-to-back victories for the Jags. Minshew though has been impressive and I think he has a significant advantage of his counterpart today. Note that Minshew has seven TD’s and just one INT. The Jags also got a huge game from RB Leonard Fournette, who had 225 yards. Key Trends: - The Jags only allow 99.5 YPG rushing, which doesn’t bode well for Panthers’ RB Christian McCaffery (and in turn, will make this Panthers offense extremely one-dimensional for its rookie QB.) - Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road dog. The verdict: While the outright win is obviously possible, let’s grab the points! |
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10-06-19 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 24-31 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Tampa Bay Bucs. This is a big game. For the Bucs more than the Saints in my opinion. Tampa is now 2-2 after it demolished the Rams 55-40 last weekend. Tampa got four turnovers, including three INT’s and it only allowed 28 rushing yards. That doesn’t bode well for a Saints team which is down to is second string QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater is a game manager, but he lacks the talent of Drew Brees obviously. The Saints only average 102 YPG on the ground, which is ranked 19th. I think the Bucs are going to make New Orleans’ normally versatile offense, very one-dimensional this afternoon. Key Trends: - The Saints are just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home home. - The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Jameis Winston and company beat the Saints on the road last year and while I do feel they have a legitimate shot at repeating that feat this weekend as well, I will in the end recommend that you grab as many points as you can; play on the Bucs! |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes Cincinnati has ALMOST won in both Seattle and Buffalo this year, but the team still comes to town 0-3. The Steelers are 0-3 as well and they’re dealing with significant injury, as QB Ben Roethlisberger The Steelers are down to backup Mason Rudolph, who I think will benefit greatly from playing at home this week. Andy Dalton has been the lone bright spot on the Bengals’ offense, as his line continues to be a weak point. The Bengals have also been poor in the secondary. The Steelers strength is on the defensive side and I think the unit is a difference maker in tonight’s contest. I’m also calling for a big day from RB James Conner, who to this point has been pretty quiet for Pittsburgh. The verdict: Throwing out the ATS stats for this one, and concentrating on the situation. I have a hard time seeing this Bengals offense mustering much of an attack in this hostile environment and I look for Conner to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short points! |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +5 | 27-10 | Loss | -102 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. This is “situational” play for me. Seattle is the “better” team on paper, but divisional contests are always the most difficult (especially on the road.) The Hawks also have a short week with a Thursday night game vs. the division leading Rams coming up. Seattle also comes in off its first loss of the year, getting hammered at home by a Drew Brees-less Saints team (note that the Hawks two other victories have come against current 0-3 teams.) The Cards are 0-2-1, but their season lies in the balance here. A victory today gets them right back into the mix. Key Trends: - Cards are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 after posting less than 250 total yards in their last game. - The Seahawks are interestingly just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven after posting more than 250 passing yards in their previous games. The verdict: I think the home side has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright; that said, let’s grab the points! |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants -2.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New York Giants. The Redskins are terrible. That’s mainly due to some key injuries, but I think they’ve already thrown in the towel after starting 0-3. The Giants though are 1-2 after they made a switch to rookie QB Daniel Jones last week vs. the Bucs. Jones looked great by going 23 of 36 for 336 yards and two TD’s, along with four rushes for 28 yards and another pair of TD’s. The Redskins were just manhandled on both sides of the ball by the Bears and I think they’re in for another long afternoon vs. this tough road division rival/venue. Key Trends: - Washington is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five games on field turf. - New York is a solid 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. a club with a losing record. The verdict: I think Jones is a difference maker and I believe the rookie makes the most of this golden opportunity; lay the short points! |
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09-29-19 | Patriots -7 v. Bills | 16-10 | Loss | -100 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New England Patriots. The Bills are 3-0. The Patriots are 3-0. I think that’s where the similarities end between the two teams. The Pats rolled to a 30-14 home win over the Jets last time out, while the Bills had to come from behind to knock off the Bengals 21-17. Both teams have been “lights out” defensively early, but New England leads the league by conceding just 199 yards per game. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home. - The Bills are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. clubs with winning SU road records. - New England is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Buffalo’s offense is still a work in progress, which doesn’t bode well facing this unbelievable New England defense. I’m banking on a blowout, lay the points with confidence! |
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09-29-19 | Chargers v. Dolphins +16.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* play on the Miami Dolphins. Josh Rosen doesn’t have much to work with as the QB for the Miami Dolphins this year, but he’s not going to down without a fight this afternoon. Rosen and the Dolphins have absolutely nothing to lose. Miami is already looking ahead to next season after a rash of injuries de-railed its season. But more than anything I think the Chargers are vastly over-rated here. LA clearly has the better team on paper, but so far it’s been terrible to start the season with back-to-back losses. RB Melvin Gordon doesn’t come back to next week and I think LA’s struggling offense continues to sputter vs. this hungry home side. Key Trends: - LA is interestingly just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - Miami is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. the AFC West (does this stat really matter? It certainly doesn’t hurt the Dolphins, that’s for sure!) The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab the points and expect a closer than predicted battle! |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +4.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH is on the Washington Redskins. So far the Bears’ offense has looked terrible. The defense has been decent, but the level of competition to this point is suspect in my opinion. Washington comes in at 0-2 and desperate for a victory. The Redskins have been horrible defensively, but the offense has in fact been above average (24.0 PPG, ranked 10th). With their season on the line, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Chicago is 7-9 ATS on the road in its last 16. - The Bears are only 1-2 ATS in their last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: Washington QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky has been bad overall this season, throwing for just 120 yards last week. I’m banking on the “hungrier” team getting the job done tonight; grab the points! |
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09-22-19 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Baltimore Ravens. I think Baltimore is the better all around team. KC has an amazing offense and it has the advantage of playing at home, but I’m unconvinced of the Chiefs’ defense still. Both teams have played sub-par competition so far to get to 2-0, but the Ravens clearly have the offensive fire-power to “hang” with any team in the league. Combined with what I believe to be a superior defensive unit and special teams, I do indeed think we’re getting a gift with the ample points here. Key Trends: - Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. - KC is interestingly just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The verdict: Of course I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can; play on the Ravens! |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Raiders got smoked by the Chiefs at home last week. Oakland hits the road for the first time this year. I think the Raiders get caught looking ahead to the next daunting few weeks, which sees them play only one home game in that span, and that’s when they’re in London, England. Oakland suffered a big blow to its secondary when Johnathan Abram went out in Week 1 vs. Denver. Last week the Raiders’ secondary looked weak against Patrick Mahomes and I think it’ll struggle here too in this difficult road venue. Minnesota looked great in Week 1, but poor in Week 2 at Lambeau. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Kirk Cousins and company though in my opinion. Dalvin Cook makes Minnesota’s offense dangerous, as he already has 265 total rushing yards. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. - Oakland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on the road. The verdict: The Vikes are holding opponents to 7-23 on third downs so far and they’re allowing 108.5 rushing YPG. Minnesota also has six sacks for 50 yards. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders slowing down, or scoring against the Vikings today; lay the points! |
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09-22-19 | Dolphins +23 v. Cowboys | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Miami Dolphins Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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09-22-19 | Bengals +7 v. Bills | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. I’m basing this pick primarily on the “situation.” Cincinnati is still without main WR AJ Green and the Bengals come to Buffalo desperate sitting at 0-2. The Bills enter content after their surprising 2-0 start and while Josh Allen has looked sharp so far for Buffalo, I’m unconvinced still to this point. Last week the Bengals ran into a red hot 49ers team, but they looked pretty good in their 21-20 loss in Seattle in Week 1. I expect another hard-fought battle in Buffalo vs. the over-achieving Bills. Key Trends: - The Bengals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog. - The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a win by 14 points or more. The verdict: With their season on the line, I think the Bengals will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab the points! |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -123 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Titans. After Nick Foles went down with injury, the Jaguars hopes of a playoff berth went down the toilet too. Now 0-2 to open the year and down to backup Gardner Minshew under center, I believe that the Titans bounce back from their inexplicable 19-17 loss to the Colts last weekend. Back-to-back losses to divisional opponents, especially one which has so many injuries to key players (CB AJ Bouye, WR Marqise Lee, DE Yannick Ngakoue and LT Cam Robinson.) The Titans annihilated the Browns in Week 1 and I believe we’ll see a return to form here. Key Trends: - Tennessee is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss. - The Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after one or more straight losses. - The Jags are a poor 7-8 ATS in their last 15 at home. - Jacksonville is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest. The verdict: I think the Titans are the better team in all three phases and I don’t see them looking past this opponent after last week’s “brain fart.” Lay the short points! |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans -3 | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Titans. The Titans dismantled the Browns in Week 1 and I think they’re going to control this game vs. their division rival at home as well in Week 2. Indianapolis plays its second straight game away from home after losing a heart breaker to the Chargers in OT in LA in Week 1. The Colts put everything they had on the line in that one to try and pull off the upset, but it still wasn’t enough. With that heartbreaker still on the front of their minds, I think the visitors get steamrolled today by this confident Titans side. Key Trends: Yes the Colts offensive line was impressive in Week 1, but Tennessee’s offensive line was also dominant last week. In every single category I’m giving Tennessee the advantage today, especially with Marcus Mariota under center. Finally note that the Titans defeated the Colts twice in 2018 when Jacoby Brissett was the starting QB and note that they’ve won 16 of their last 20 games in Nashville overall; lay the points! |
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09-15-19 | Chargers -3 v. Lions | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Chargers. LA definitely won’t be taking anything for granted here after nearly losing to the Colts in Week 1, managing the 30-24 OT victory after getting outscored 18-7 in the second half. The Lions though looked even worse by blowing an 18-point lead to the Cardinals and then leaving Arizona with a tie after neither side could score in OT. Key Trends: - LA is 6-1 SU in its last seven vs. the NFC (also 5-2 ATS in those games.) - The Chargers were 7-1 SU on the road last year. - The Lions are only 6-11 in their last 17 as a home underdog. The verdict: Philip Rivers had 333 yards and three TD’s for the Chargers last week and after the way that rookie QB Kyler Murray dismantled the Lions’ defense last week, I think the veteran “has himself a day” here as well; lay the short points! |
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09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -109 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Giants. Buffalo came from behind to beat the Jets 17-16 on the road last weekend. The Bills final stats looked sharp, but for much of that game Buffalo struggled. New York started decently in Dallas last weekend, but then it also fell apart down the stretch, falling 35-17 once it was all said and done. Buffalo’s defense stepped up big against the Jets, but I have a hard time seeing lightning striking twice for the offensively challenged Bills. Eli Manning and the Giants are essentially in a “must win” scenario early, as second straight loss to open the year will undoubtedly have all of his naysayers calling for his termination immediately. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog. - New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: The Giants looked poor against the pass with Dak Prescott, but the young secondary catches a break this week facing Josh Allen and the offensively challenged Bills; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +17 | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Dolphins. New England roared out to an easy victory over Pittsburgh in its opener and now its set to welcome dynamic receiver Antonio Brown into the mix. The Dolphins were steamrolled 52-10 by the Ravens in their opener and afterwards several players requested trades. Clearly on paper this is a major mismatch, but I expect this in fact to work in our favor here. The Patriots will rest starting players after they have a comfortable lead and the home side WILL NOT be lacking for motivation after getting crushed in Week 1. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side (ATS clearly!) Key Trends: - The Pats are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven played in Miami. - The home side is 14-3 ATS the last 17 in this series. The verdict: I think the Pats take the foot off the gas in the second half and the hungry Fish sneak in comfortably through the back door down the stretch; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Cowboys v. Redskins +5.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Redskins. Dallas managed a 35-17 win in its opener vs. the Giants, while the Redskins are looking to bounce back after they fell 32-27 at Philadelphia. Washington had a 20-7 lead at one point in that one, before then falling apart. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the home side, as an 0-2 hole to start the year, combined with a second straight loss to a divisional foe will clearly be too much for the Skins to overcome. Dallas gave up 151 rushing hards to Saquon Barkley last week, so Washington RB Adrian Peterson will be seeing plenty of action. Key Trends: - Dallas is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a division game. - Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game. The verdict: With the season on the line, look for the home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire! |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -100 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Seahawks are 1-0. The Steelers are 0-1. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Steelers, especially after losing to the Patriots in Week 1 and the way in which the Ravens crushed the Fish last weekend. The pressure is on Pittsburgh to step up and deliver in this favorable home situation. The Hawks may have won last week, but it was far from convincing by outlasting Cincinnati 21-20. Key Trends: - Andy Dalton had 415 yards passing and two TD’s for the Bengals vs. the Hawks last weekend. Clearly Big Ben is licking his chops to get a shot at this suspect secondary. The verdict: I think that the Steelers lay it all on the line this weekend and I expect the Hawks to throw in the white flag early; lay the points! |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -104 | 81 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Carolina Panthers. Bruce Arians is a good NFL head coach, but the Bucs are a bad team. TB QB Jameis Winston had 194 passing yards last week in his team’s 31-17 home loss to San Francisco, but he also had three INT’s, two of which were returned for a TD. The Bucs looked “OK” defensively, but it’s hard to truly judge facing San Francisco. The Panthers lost 30-27 to the Rams on Sunday, starting slowly and never able to recover. RB Christian McCaffrey had himself a day though, finishing with 128 rushing yards and two TD’s (also led the team with ten receptions.) Key Trends: - Tamp Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing at least 30 points in its previous game. The verdict: The short week always favors the home side and I definitely expect that to be the case on Thursday night. I don’t think Tampa’s offensive issues are going to suddenly fix themselves in such a short time and I do believe that the Panthers will play much better defensively this week. Lay the points with confidence! |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 245 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Houston Texans. Every team in the National Football League has “big” expectations heading into a new campaign, and these two clubs are no different. Houston finished with an 11-5 record a year ago, while the Saints lost a heart-breaker to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game under a controversial call. Note though that last year Mark Ingram had the second most rushing yards in the league for the Saints and he’s now gone to Baltimore. I think this effects the offense for the home side early this year. Key Trends: - New Orleans has dropped every season opener since 2014. - The Saints have lost their first home game in each of their last four seasons. The verdict: Both teams have new faces on both sides of the ball, but the situation and numbers point to a competitive battle in my opinion; grab the points! |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +7 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -137 | 222 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Year after year these two teams are always in the playoffs and making a serious run at the championship. New England more so than Pittsburgh of late. New England made a big acquisition in Antonio Brown on Saturday, but I think that’s going to be more of a distraction. The Super Bowl Champ has done well ATS in its first game back the following year, but I believe that trend finally comes to an end vs. this hungry visiting side. Pittsburgh hates AB and it hates New England. I think the “hungrier, hate filled” side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog (and 5-0 ATS its last five as a road dog). - New England is only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: I think Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. That said, grab as many points as you can! |
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09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers -6.5 | 24-30 | Loss | -109 | 218 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Chargers. If Andrew Luck was playing in this game, I’d still recommend a play on the Chargers. Granted, Jacoby Brissett is a worthy backup, but he’s being thrust into the spot-light here in short order and I believe he’s going to predictably struggle here in this difficult road venue. LA is without RB Melvin Gordon, but Philip Rivers returns, along with a strong stable of receivers and an improved defense. I think this is going to be a slaughter from start to finish. Key Trends: - Indianapolis is only 10-13 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. - LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: No Luck = no luck. Lay the points, expect more than a River, this one has complete WASHOUT written all over it! |
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09-08-19 | Redskins +10 v. Eagles | 27-32 | Win | 100 | 215 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Washington Redskins. It’s an important divisional matchup on Sunday. Last year Washington was 5-2 after the first seven games, but then it would finish 7-9. Philadelphia beat Chicago in the Wild Card Round last season, before then falling 20-14 to the Saints int he Divisional Round. Philadelphia is going to be leaning heavily on Carson Wentz to open the year, as it completely overdid its RB roster, bringing in Jordan Howard, before then also grabbing Miles Sanders. The strength of Philadelphia early I think will be its defense. Washington has plenty of question marks, but it has the talent to keep up to the one dimensional home side in my opinion. Key Trends: - Washington is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. - Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I think Washington pulls out every play in the playbook to try and pull of the upset in Week 1. That said, grab the points! |
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09-08-19 | Bills +3 v. Jets | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 215 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo benefits from early regional contests, with back-to-back contests vs. state rivals Jets and then the Giants. The Bills have plenty of weapons on the offensive end, including Devin Singletary and Frank Gore. QB Josh Allen looked comfortable in camp and he has two deadly weapons in John Brown and Cole Beasley. Le’Veon Bell was New York’s big offseason signing, but the offense is still very one-dimensional in my opinion. Sam Darnold looked great at times last year and pretty pedestrian in others. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 3-2 SU in its last five games played in New York. - Note that head-to-head the underdog is 7-1 ATS the last eight in this series as well. The verdict: The QB’s are a “wash” in my opinion; grab the points! |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Green Bay clearly has the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers, but the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky isn’t that far behind. Rodgers has a new coach in Matt LaFleur and many new faces on the offensive side of the ball as well. The Packers can’t possibly be any worse on the defensive side of the ball after conceding 28 PPG last year, but the unit will have some chemistry issues as well in my opinion to open things up. And that leaves the door open for Chicago on Opening night. The Bears’ defense was tops in the NFL last year, allowing only 17.7 PPG and the entire unit is back and ready to prove that it wasn’t a fluke. The verdict: I love Rodgers and I think he’s going to put up big numbers this year. But Also think that Matt Nagy and the Bears have this game circled on their calendar since the end of last season; lay the points! |
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01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 147 h 50 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New England Patriots. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Experience and recent history. So far he Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been “phased” by anything this year. The young gunslinger fired 50 TD strikes this season. The Pats’ beat the Chiefs 43-40 at home and I think an upset is in the makings here as well. The experience that New England brings to the table in this situation, combined with the fact they’ve already proven it can beat the Chiefs are my “key angles” to this contest. Key Trends: - The Patriots are still 16-8 ATS their last 24 on the road. - New England is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. - The Chiefs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a very close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less. The verdict: I’m banking on Tom Brady advancing to another Super Bowl! |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -7.5 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history and scheduling. The Saints demolished the Eagles 48-7 in Week 11. The Eagles have been “on fire” since then, but I think they finally run out of gas here, only advancing to the divisional round because of a missed FG. Key Trends: - The Eagles are just 6-7 ATS in their last 12 as a road dog. - Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS in its last three “dome” games. - The Saints are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three following their “bye.” The verdict: Expect New Orleans to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points! |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -109 | 144 h 2 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chargers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots and that includes 0-2 in the playoffs (2008 and 2009). Rivers comes to Foxborough with his last, but best chance to finally avenge those setbacks. LA has a dominant run game and it’s defense looked sharp in last week’s big win over the Ravens. Key Trends: - LA is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year. - The Chargers are 8-1 ATS on the road this season. - New England is already 0-3 ATS thi shear after two straight wins by ten points or more. The verdict: Revenge is a dish best served cold. Grab the points, expect a battle to the end! |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -121 | 127 h 23 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Hot at the right time. Dallas enters the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. The Cowboys avoided a dangerous team last week in the Hawks and Russell Wilson, who put up his best numbers of his career. Dallas is on fire on both sides of the ball and I think it has a legitimate shot at stealing this one outright. Key Trends: - Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - The Cowboys are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more consecutive wins. - LA is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: As stated above, I think the outright is possible, but in the end I’ll grab the ample points! |
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01-12-19 | Colts +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -104 | 124 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Chiefs’ terrible defense. KC looked poor down the stretch, but it did break a two game slide with a win over the Raiders in Week 17 to earn the bye. KC is the highest scoring team in the league, but the Colts’ Andrew Luck is on fire right now and I don’t foresee him having any issues matching pace with the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes this afternoon. The difference is on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts have looked considerably better on that side of the ball all year, and especially of late. The Colts allow 21.5 on the year, while the Chiefs allow 26.3. Key Trends: - The Colts are a perfect 2-0 ATS this year off a road win vs. a division rival. - The Chiefs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following a week off. - KC is a poor 1-2 ATS in its last three off a home blowout win of 21 points or more. The verdict: An outright victory is obviously not out of the cards, but in the end I’m grabbing what I believe to be a healthy amount of points! |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -5.5 | 16-15 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky's 9* play on the Chicago Bears. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Dominant numbers on both sides of the ball and home field advantage. These are my two “key angles” for this game. The Bears were among the best on both sides of the ball this year. The Eagles come in on a big run, but it was Chicago which helped Philadelphia even make the postseason with its dominant performance over the Vikings in its season finale. Nick Foles’ magic runs out here as I expect the above factors to be too much for the defending champs to overcome this time. Key Trends: - Philadelphia is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog. - The Eagles are already 1-3 ATS this year off a win vs. a division rival. - The Bears are 9-3 ATS as a favorite this year. - Chicago is 4-1 ATS off a division game this season. The verdict: Lay the points, expect a blowout! |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 22-24 | Win | 101 | 129 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Seahawks. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. Lots has changed for both teams since Seattle beat the Cowboys at home 24-13 back on September 23rd and while Dallas has gotten significantly better on both sides of the ball since that setback, so too have the Seahawks. Seattle QB Russell Wilson had a superb season and he’s backed by one of the league’s No. 1 rushing units. Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliot finished with almost 1,500 yards rushing, but I think Wilson has the major advantage under center vs. Cowboys’ pivot Dak Prescott. I think this is a bad matchup for Dallas and the loss earlier in the year proves that. Key Trends: - Seattle is 3-1 ATS as a road dog this year. - The Hawks are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the NFC East. - Dallas is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 off a division game. The verdict: Wilson is the correct call. Grab the points. |
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01-05-19 | Colts +2.5 v. Texans | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 125 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky's 9* play on the Indianapolis Colts. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Andrew Luck. He’s not a “key angle” so much for me on this pick, but more of an “X-factor.” Luck started the season under a new offense, but after picking up what Reich was putting down, he helped the Colts win seven of their last eight games. As good as the Texans were this year and despite the home field advantage, I think Luck gets the nod over Houston’s DeShaun Watson. Key Trends: - The Colts are a perfect 4-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records this year. - Indianapolis is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after playing its previous game on the road. - The Texans are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: This one screams upset, but I’ll still grab the points. |
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12-30-18 | Raiders +14.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -130 | 78 h 33 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Oakland Raiders. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. Oakland lost 40-33 at home to KC earlier in the month and I expect it to put up a similar fight here. The Raiders come in off a commanding win over the Broncos, while the Chiefs enter having lost two straight. Key Trends: - The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home. - The Raiders are a perfect 2-0 ATS their last two off an ouse win by ten points or more as an underdog. The verdict: The Chiefs lock up the division with a win today, but their continued lack of defense keeps this one closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. |
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12-30-18 | Jets v. Patriots -13.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the New England Patriots. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Motivation levels. The Patriots need a win here to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. The Jets have nothing to play for here at 4-11 and they come in having lost four in a row. Key Trends: - New England is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. teams with losing records. - The Patriots are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 following a SU win. - The Jets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: The home team is also 6-1-1 ATS the last eight in this series. The Patriots will want to send a message in their final “tune-up” before the “real” thing. Sorry Jets fans. Lay the points. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 35 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Raiders. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Final game for Raiders in Oakland Coliseum? If it is, David Carr and his patchwork team will want to make it a good one. The City of Oakland has filed a lawsuit against the team, which is expected to leave to Las Vegas in 2020: “Just raging in the Black Hole,” Raiders’ coach Jon Gruden said reminisced recently about his favorite Coliseum memories. “Rocking and raging down there after the Steeler game [last week], after a lot of wins over the years. Seeing a lot of the old highlights of great Raider teams, I get excited. I get emotional about it, and hopefully we get it all resolved so we can continue to play there. It’s a real football stadium,” he added. “It’s dirt, grass, it’s got tradition. It’s where some of the best games in the history of football have been played. I mean, there are a lot of things that have happened in that stadium and, uh, next question. I don’t want to start crying about a stadium.” Key Trends: - Denver is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year. - The Broncos are just 1-2 ATS in their last three MNF games. - Oakland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: Grab the points and expect a nail-biter. |
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12-23-18 | Steelers v. Saints -5.5 | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky's 9* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Place the final nail in the coffin. The Steelers broke a three-game slide with a win over the Patriots at home last weekend, but New Orleans can solidify its spot atop the NFC with a win here, but also put the final nail in the coffin for the Steelers season. After last week’s tougher than excepted 12-9 win in Carolina, I look for Brees to lay the hammer down early and often. Key Trends: - The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after posting more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. - New Orleans is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 following a SU win. - Pittsburgh is interestingly a poor 2-5 ATS in its last seven after posting more than 350 yards in its previous game. The verdict: This one has blow-out written all over it. Lay the points. |
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12-23-18 | Rams v. Cardinals +15 | 31-9 | Loss | -125 | 95 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Cardinals. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. Spoiler. Arizona plays with revenge after a 34-0 road loss in Week 2 to the Rams. The Cards will also be trying to delay the Rams NFC bye berth another week. These are my “key angles” to this contest. Key Trends: - LA is only 3-4 ATS on the road this year. - The Rams are a poor 5-7 ATS as a favorite this season. - Arizona is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game. The verdict: The Rams are running out of gas and I simply can’t see them covering this huge number on the road vs. a hungry home side with a few different motivational factors working in its favor. Grab the points. |
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 92 h 35 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Can Clinch. Dallas had a chance to clinch the NFC East last weekend, but its momentum was derailed in a shutout loss to the Colts. The Cowboys can still claim that title with a win here today though and facing the Bucs who enter off consecutive setbacks to the Saints and Ravens. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following a loss. - Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. - The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. the NFC. The verdict: A great situational play. Lay the points. |
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12-23-18 | Bills +14 v. Patriots | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Buffalo Bills. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The role of spoiler. Buffalo won’t be making another appearance in the playoffs this season, but it’ll try to delay the Patriots winning the AFC East for at least another week. Never before in the last decade has Tom Brady and company looked more susceptible at this time of year. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a win by three points or less. - New England is still only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: The stage is set for a closer than expected battle, so grab the points! |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the LA Chargers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Bigger aspirations and home field advantage. The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot, but they’re still neck and neck with the Chiefs for the best overall record. With a chance to end the Ravens playoff hopes, look for LA to pull away down the stretch in friendly confines. Key Trends: - Baltimore is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of 3.5 to seven points. - The Ravens just 2-4 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. - LA is already 3-1 ATS this season off a division game. - The Chargers are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: As good as the Ravens are defensively, I can’t see them keeping pace with Rivers and company. Lay the points. |
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12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Motivation levels. The Saints are 11-2 and control their own fate at this point. If they win out, they’ll earn top spot in the NFC due to the tie-breaker owned vs. the Rams. While Carolina still has a mathematical shot at a wild card berth, the Panthers have zero momentum whatsoever after suffering a fourth straight loss by one possession in last week’s 26-20 setback to the lowly Browns. Key Trends: - New Orleans is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. - The Saints are 6-1 ATS on the road this year. - Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. division opponents. The verdict: Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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12-16-18 | Eagles +11 v. Rams | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 99 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky's 9* play on the Eagles. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Desperation. The Eagles came up short last week in their setback to the Cowboys and they’re down to Nick Foles under center, but they won’t be going down without a fight. They aren’t yet mathematically eliminated from contention and until they officially are, I’m expecting the defending champs to play with heart. Key Trends: - The Eagles are still 4-2 ATS in their last six on the road. - The Rams are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after being held to six points or less in their previous contest (lost to the Bears in Chicago last weekend.) The verdict: I think this’ll be a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. |
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12-16-18 | Packers v. Bears -5.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Bears. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. Green Bay won the first meeting of the year 24-23. This is my “key angle” for this play. Key Trends: - Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS on the road. - The Packers are already 0-4 ATS this season after winning and covering in their previous game. - The Bears are already 4-0 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The verdict: Lay the points, expect a rout. |
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12-15-18 | Browns +3 v. Broncos | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 75 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Cleveland Browns. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Role of spoiler. Cleveland is gunning for as many victories as possible after its winless campaign a year ago and it won’t be holding anything back today. If the Browns do win, they’ll be putting the final nail in the coffin to the Broncos’ season. This is my “key angle” to this game. Key Trends: - Cleveland is already 7-4 ATS this year as an underdog. - The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five after playing a home game. - The Broncos are only 5-7 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite. - Denver is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 following a road loss. The verdict: Grab the points and expect a competitive fight until the end. |
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12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -126 | 53 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chiefs. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. The Chiefs have already beaten the Chargers 38-28 on the road back in Week 1. I think this is a tough match-up for LA and I think it’ll struggle again in this unfriendly stadium. Key Trends: - LA is just 2-4 ATS in its last six in revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. - Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. - The Chiefs are still 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. the division. The verdict: Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers is just 5-7 in his career at Arrowhead Stadium, including four straight losses there. With a win KC wraps up the AFC West title and with so much on the line, I expect it to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. |
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12-09-18 | Rams v. Bears +3 | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 124 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Chicago Bears. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Home cooking. It’s difficult to say anything negative about the Rams obviously, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that home field advantage will be big in this match-up. The Rams posted a 30-16 road win in Detroit last week. It’s difficult to win on the road in the NFL, let alone on back-to-back weeks. The Bears are more motivated, looking to hang onto their division lead and to bounce back after last week’s 30-27 OT loss to the Giants. Key Trends: - LA is already 1-3 ATS this season as a road favorite of seven points or less. - The Rams are already just 1-3 ATS this year after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. - The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a home underdog. The verdict: Don’t be afraid to sprinkle a little on the money line as well. Grab the points. |
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