For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-09-18 | Eagles +4 v. Cowboys | 23-29 | Loss | -113 | 121 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky's 9* play on the Philadelphia Eagles. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. Philadelphia fell 27-20 at home to Dallas earlier in the year. Both teams are playing a lot better right now, but this is my “key angle” for this particular contest. Key Trends: - Dallas is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 after allowing less than 150 passing yards in its last game. - Philadelphia is 9-4 ATS in is last 13 after posing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. The verdict: Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 117 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky's 9* play on the Baltimore Ravens. - Motivation levels. After a three-game losing streak, Baltimore has now won three in a row after last weeks’ solid victory in Atlanta. The Ravens only sit a half game back of the Steelers for the division lead. KC sits a game ahead of the Chargers for first place in the AFC West, but a letdown is imminent in my opinion after last week’s 40-33 win over the Raiders. Oakland has virtually no offense and the Raiders almost won that game outright. Now KC faces the No. 1 defense in the league. I think the “hungrier” team keeps it close! Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: - Baltimore is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year as a road underdog of seven points or less. - KC is still just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 25 points or more in five straight games. The verdict: Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Colts v. Texans -4.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 7 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Houston Texans. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Home cooking and recent history. The Texans already beat the Colts 37-34 in OT in Week 4 in Indianapolis and I have a hard time seeing Andrew Luck and company keeping pace today in this hostile venue and after their 6-0 road loss to Jacksonville last week. Note that the Houston offense has scored a combined 63 points over its last two games. Key Trends: - Indianapolis is just 12-17 ATS in its last 29 as an underdog. - The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five in revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. - Houston is already 3-1 ATS vs. the division. The verdict: Lay the points. |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Panthers v. Browns +2 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Cleveland Browns. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Role of spoiler. The Browns have an opportunity to end the Panthers season with a win in front of the home town crowd. With nothing to lose, I think Mayfield and company will at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Carolina is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 off an upset loss as a favorite. - Cleveland is 3-1 ATS already this season as a home dog. - The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a loss by 14 points or more. The verdict: Play on Cleveland. |
|||||||
12-02-18 | Panthers v. Bucs +4 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 144 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bucs. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Momentum. It can be a very real, almost “tangible” factor in sports. And it goes both ways. Carolina comes in with absolutely no momentum whatsoever after three straight losses, including a heart-breaking setback at home to Seattle last weekend. The Bucs won’t be playing in the post-season, but they have an opportunity here to deliver the knock out blow. This is my “key angle” for this selection. Key Trends: - Carolina is just 1-4 ATS on the road. - The Panthers are just 3-4 ATS this year as a favorite. - Tamp Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after having lost six or seven out of its last eight games SU. The verdict: Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-02-18 | Bills +5 v. Dolphins | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 144 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bills. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Over-valued. Is Miami that much better of a team that Buffalo is at this point? Buffalo comes in off a confidence building 24-21 home win over the Jags, while the Fish enter off a terrible 27-24 road loss in Indianapolis. This one has “upset city” written all over it. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog. - Miami is only 3-6 ATS in its last nine after covering the spread in two of three games. - The Dolphins are only 1-4 ATS in their last five following a two game road trip. The verdict: Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-02-18 | Colts v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 144 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - It’s been a horrible year for the Jaguars, a season de-railed by injury and bad luck. Blake Bortles has been benched in favor of Cody Kessler and with nothing to lose, I think the home side keeps this one close until the final moments. The Colts have been playing at a very high level with Luck under center, but this is a spot that they’ve struggled in for bettors. Key Trends: - The Colts are just 3-5 ATS this year vs. the conference. - Indianapolis is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a home win. - The Jaguars are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: Jacksonville fights and takes it down to the wire. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-29-18 | Saints -7 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - New Orleans is the hottest team in the league and a “letdown” at some point is inevitable. Or is it? The Saints have won ten straight and they’ll be looking to keep things rolling at they try to lock down the first round bye in the playoffs. This my “key angle” for this selection. Key Trends: - The Saints are 6-2 ATS as a favorite. - New Orleans is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 after two or more consecutive victories. - Dallas is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 off a division game. The verdict: Lay the points. |
|||||||
11-26-18 | Titans v. Texans -4 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Houston Texans. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Houston has a slim lead in the AFC South after last week’s win in Washington. Tennessee enters off a 38-10 loss in Indianapolis last weekend and another divisional contest on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track in my opinion. Divisional contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. Home field advantage is my “key angle” in this contest. Key Trends: - Tennessee is just 9-14 ATS on the road in its last 23. - Houston is 6-3 ATS in its last nine trying to revenge a loss to an opponent. The verdict: Houston plays with revenge after falling 20-17 in Tennessee back in Week 2. That was then and this is now. Lay the points. |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Dolphins v. Colts -7.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 17 m | Show | |
Ricky's 9* play on the Colts. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - After four straight victories, I have a hard time seeing Andrew Luck and the surging Colts squandering this golden opportunity. Indy is on the way to once again challenging the Pats for the AFC, while Miami continues to struggle. Especially on the road. The Fish welcome back Ryan Tannehill today under center, which believe will in fact be a detriment, not a benefit. Key Trends: - Miami is just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 on the road, including only 1-4 ATS this season. - The Dolphins are a poor 6-9 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. - Indianapolis is already 2-0 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: Lay the points. |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Cardinals v. Chargers -12 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 79 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chargers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Chargers lost to the Broncos at home last week, but the still have an opportunity to take a strangle hold on the Wild card spot with a win today. The Cards are down and out and already planning for next year. I expect a full four quarter effort for the Chargers after last week’s “dud.” Key Trends: - Arizona is just 4-7 ATS in its last 111 non-conference games. - The Cardinals are only 7-12 ATS in their last 19 on the road. - The Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games coming off an ATS loss at home. The verdict: Lay the points. |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Giants v. Eagles -5.5 | 22-25 | Loss | -108 | 76 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Philadelphia Eagles. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Eagles have lost two in a row. The Giants have won two in row. But I’m not about to give up on Philadelphia quite yet. Carson Wentz continues to be productive. I think NY struggles in this difficult road venue. Key Trends: - The Giants are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after two or more wins. - New York is only 4-5 ATS as an underdog this year. - Philadelphia is still 5-1 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive losses. The verdict: Look for the defending champs to risk life and limb and lay the points. |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Browns v. Bengals -3 | 35-20 | Loss | -109 | 76 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bengals. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Browns come in off a win contented. The Bengals though enter off back-to-back losses and for all intents purposes, this has become a “must win” game for Cincinnati to stay in the playoff picture. This is my “key angle” for this game as I believe the Browns suffer a letdown here. Key Trends: - Cleveland is just 6-13 ATS on the road in its last 19. - Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 following two or more SU losses. - The Bengals are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 vs. the division. The verdict: Look for the Bengals to lay the hammer down from start to finish. |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New York Jets. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - It’s hard to imagine Tom Brady and the Patriots “looking past” the Jets today, but that’s exactly what I’m expecting with a game at home against the Vikes up next. This is my “key angle” for this contest. Key Trends: - The Patriots are just 2-3 ATS in their last five following their bye week. - New England is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. - New York is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints -13 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 106 | 78 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Two more wins and the Saints will lock up a first round bye in the playoffs. Key Trends: - The Falcons are just 1-3 ATS on the road. - Atlanta is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive losses. - The Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: Take New Orleans. |
|||||||
11-22-18 | Redskins v. Cowboys -7 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Cowboys play with revenge after falling in Washington earlier in the year. - Redskins starting QB Alex Smith is out with injury. Key Trends: - Washington is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. - Dallas is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. - The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS at home this year. The verdict: Take the Cowboys. |
|||||||
11-22-18 | Bears -4 v. Lions | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 70 h 43 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Bears already beat the Lions easily 34-22 at home. Chicago has won four straight and with a chance to put the Lions out of their misery after their upset win over the Panthers last weekend, I believe the defensive minded visitors drop the hammer on the national stage. Key Trends: - Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a favorite. - The Bears are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 vs. the division (including 3-0 ATS this season.) - Detroit is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight against the division. - The Lions are only 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: Take the Bears. |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Panthers v. Lions +4.5 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Lions. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Carolina is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven dome games. - The Lions are 4-2 ATS in their las six as an underdog. - Detroit is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 dome games. The verdict: The Panthers have everything to play for and feature the far superior offense and dense. The Lions have lost three straight and are struggling mightily on both sides of the ball. But Matt Stafford and company won’t be rolling over today in front of the home town crowd. The Lions will look to play spoiler here. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Falcons | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 52 h 7 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Dallas is still 8-6 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog. - The Cowboys are 5-3 ATS in their last eight following a win vs. a division rival. - Atlanta is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home fav or three points or less. The verdict: It’s a big game for both teams. Expect this one to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Titans +1.5 v. Colts | 10-38 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 7 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Tennessee Titans. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Tennessee is already 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year. - The Titans are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 vs. the division. - The Colts are just 9-10 ATS in their last 19 at home - Indianapolis is only 4-8 ATS in its last 12 against the division. The verdict: The Titans just knocked off the Patriots and I think they continue that surge here. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 83 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Green Bay Packers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Green Bay is interestingly 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games. - Seattle is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 at home. - The Seahawks are only 10-14 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite. The verdict: This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the 49ers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - New York has lost 12 of its last 13 dating back to last year. - San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in its last nine coming off a victory and holding its opponent to three points or less in doing so (won 34-3 over the Raiders last weekend) - The Giants are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following their bye and a three games or more unbeaten streak. The verdict: A week off isn’t going to help Eli Manning and company. Home field is the difference, take San Fran. |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Seahawks v. Rams -9.5 | 31-36 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 20 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Rams: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Seahawks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November. - The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. - The Home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Verdict: Take LAR |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Dolphins +10 v. Packers | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -115 | 132 h 52 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dolphins: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. - The Packers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. - The Packers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in November. Verdict: Take Miami |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +7 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 51 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Browns: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Falcons are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. - The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. - The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Verdict: Take Cleveland |
|||||||
11-08-18 | Panthers +3.5 v. Steelers | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Panthers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November. - The Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. - The Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Verdict: Take Carolina |
|||||||
11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* the Titans: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Monday games. - The Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Monday games. - The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss. Verdict: Take Tennessee |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Packers +6 v. Patriots | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Ricky's 10* the Packers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Patriots Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel are questionable (game time decision). - The Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. - The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Verdict: Take Green Bay |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Steelers +3 v. Ravens | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* the Steelers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. - The Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. - The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Verdict: Take Pittsburgh |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Bucs +6.5 v. Panthers | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bucs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. - The Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. - The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Verdict: Take Tampa |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Lions +5.5 v. Vikings | 9-24 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Lions: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. - The Lions are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games in November. - The Underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings. Verdict: Take Detroit |
|||||||
11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | 3-34 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Raiders: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home. - The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. - The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Verdict: Take Oakland |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | 24-18 | Loss | -115 | 129 h 18 m | Show | |
8* |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs -5.5 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Chiefs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the offense of the home team is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. - The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. - The Chiefs have allowed more than 10 points fewer at home than they have on the road. Verdict: Take KC |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets +3.5 | 37-17 | Loss | -112 | 96 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Jets: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the defense of the home team is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Jets are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October. - The Jets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. - The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Verdict: Take NYJ |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Panthers +5 v. Eagles | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Panthers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the inflated line is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. - The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. - The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Verdict: Take Carolina |
|||||||
10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9 | 30-33 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Packers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games in October. - The 49ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay. - The 49ers are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings. Verdict: Take Green Bay |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 137 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* GOY play on the Chiefs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Chiefs offense is particularly significant. KC is averaging an unbelievable 35 points per game so far. Key Trends: - The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. - The Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win. Verdict: Take KC |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +3.5 | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Cowboys: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Jags offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6. - The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in October. - The Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Verdict: Take Dallas |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Rams -6.5 v. Broncos | 23-20 | Loss | -113 | 87 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Rams: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Rams offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Broncos are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall. - The Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. - The Broncos are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Verdict: Take LAR |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Bucs +3.5 v. Falcons | 29-34 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bucs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Falcons injury woes are particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. - The Falcons are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in October. - The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Verdict: Take TB |
|||||||
10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints -6 | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Saints: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Redskins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. - The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. - The Saints are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Verdict: Take New Orleans |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | 26-14 | Win | 105 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Baltimore: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. - The Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. - The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh. Verdict: Take Baltimore |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Patriots | 7-38 | Loss | -140 | 120 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Miami: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. - The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Verdict: Take Miami. |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Colts v. Eagles -6 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -107 | 123 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Eagles: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. - The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. - The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Verdict: Take Philly |
|||||||
09-20-18 | Jets +3 v. Browns | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 59 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the New York Jets: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Browns are 0-19 straight up in their last 19 overall. - The Browns are 1-37 straight up in their last 38 overall. - The Jets are 5-0 in their last five meetings. Verdict: Take NYJ |
|||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | 17-24 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Seahawks: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the mismatch at quarterback is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Seahawks are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. - The Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in September. - The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Verdict: Take Seattle |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Browns +10 v. Saints | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Browns: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the status of Mark Ingram is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Browns are 2-10 ATS versus teams with a losing record. - The Browns are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. - The Saints are 9-4 ATS versus teams with a losing record. Verdict: Take Cleveland |
|||||||
09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers -7 | 23-24 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Packers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in Green Bay is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Bears are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. - The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 1. - The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Green Bay. Verdict: Take Green Bay |
|||||||
09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals | 24-6 | Loss | -109 | 102 h 38 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Cardinals: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Cardinals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. - The Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. - The Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The verdict: Take Arizona |
|||||||
09-09-18 | Bills +8.5 v. Ravens | 3-47 | Loss | -130 | 98 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bills: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The last four head to head meetings were all decided by less than seven points. - The Bills are 3-1 ATS in their last four versus Baltimore. - The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in September. Verdict: Take Buffalo |
|||||||
09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -100 | 98 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Giants: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in New York is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. - The Under is 9-3 in Giants last 12 home games. - The Jaguars are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games in September. Verdict: Take NYG |
|||||||
02-04-18 | Eagles +5 v. Patriots | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 266 h 38 m | Show |
Super Bowl experience goes a long way and one could easily say the Patriots may win this game solely on that aspect, but at the same time the inexperience factor may actually help the Eagles to not overthink and to stick with what got them here in the first place. Nick Foles is competent enough at the QB position to not lose this game for the Eagles and therefore I see this playing out as a competitive game across offense, defense and special teams. I don't foresee either team running away with it because the Eagles have a very stout D which should keep them in the game regardless if the offense struggles, meanwhile the Patriots offense has the ability to keep them in the game if their defense struggles. Despite the obvious experience at the head coaching position with Bill Belichick, Eagles HC Doug Pederson is a real up and comer and very sharp in his own right. I expect both coaches to devise excellent game plans and adjust as necessary after half time. The Eagles will likely double Gronk and play man-to-man at every other position. I don't think they will blitz all that much, because D Lineman Cox is essentially a double man rush by himself and as long as the press man-to-man coverage + double team on Gronk it would only leave an open receiver somewhere. The Patriots coaching staff is smart enough to know this Eagles game plan may present itself and therefore I would expect them to practice and game plan against this themselves. Overall, I see this be a very competitive game and likely a field goal win on either side. Philadelphia Eagles +5 |
|||||||
01-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
This matchup is very interesting to me. First of all, let’s talk about the perception: The Eagles used their home field advantage, windy conditions and defense to beat an inefficient Falcons team 15-10 at home last week. Nick Foles didn’t get punished for bad throws and their defense did their job against laughable play-calling by Steve Sarkisian. I expected a close game and it was a solid win by the Eagles. But the perception on the Falcons was way too high which makes that win better than it was. Their run game got hyped, but it was basically just one solid drive. Overall, the Igglez had 3.0 yards per carry against a bad run defense. Nick Foles is a significant downgrade from Carson Wentz and the truth lies in the numbers over his sample size starting with the Giants game, the first game he was the starter. With Nick Foles, the Eagles offense produced 5.35 net yards per pass attempt which would rank 28th in the league, right ahead of the Colts, Browns, Packers and Ravens. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced 3.5 yards per carry which would rank 30th in the league, right ahead of the Lions and Cardinals. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced a 3rd down conversion rate of 30.2% which would rank 32nd in the league. Considering all that, they played vs the Giants, Raiders, Cowboys (3 drives) and the Falcons. The Vikings defense is way ahead of that bunch. The Vikings won against the Saints by a miracle. The truth is, the Vikings started off 17-0 and led the game for the first 57 minutes. One of the best offenses in the league took care of short fields and Drew Brees delivered some awesome throws against a tiring defense who lost their starting free safety. For the Saints getting a lead at any point during that game was almost a bigger miracle than the Diggs-touchdown at the end. The Vikes flat out dominated one of the best teams of 2017 for the major part of the game. The Vikings are the better team, period. The Eagles have been staying at home for a month now and I read a lot about how good their defense has been in their last four home games: 3 pts vs Bears, 10 pts vs Raiders, 6 pts vs Cowboys & 10 pts vs Falcons. The best offense of those four teams were the Falcons and they don’t really come close to the Vikings offense. Vikings OC Pat Shumur has implemented an efficient offense featuring two awesome WR's with great play-calling that just needs to be executed properly. Case Keenum does just that. This Vikings team presents a matchup the Eagles haven’t faced in weeks. The Eagles have a great offensive line, without a doubt. But it’s a different matchup than last week as the Vikings defense is a complete unit, provides great front four pressure, can stop the run and cover guys in space. The only weak spot on the Eagles line is LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai. He is going to line up against stud Everson Griffen and that’s a terrible matchup as Griffen is going to slide past Vaitai by speed and bull rushes. Vaitai just cannot handle him. That puts Nick Foles under consistent pressure from his blind side or forces Doug Pederson to double Griffen with a 6th OL, TE or RB. However he plays Griffen, it’s going to disrupt the Eagles’ gameplan a bit. Eagles are normally quite successful, but if they can’t run the ball efficiently on the Vikings front seven as I expect, Nick Foles is gonna be in a lot of long third down situations and that isn’t a good idea. The Vikings defense ranks 1st in third down conversion rate as they allow only 25% of third downs to be successful. On the flip side, the Vikings offense doesn’t have an easy matchup either. The Eagles have one of the best 4-3 defensive line in the league and they are going to win their fair share of matchups in the trenches against a Vikings offensive line that has been playing solid, but gave up a lot of pressures. Vikings will struggle to run and the Eagles will be able to move Keenum off his spot, but I give the Vikings a much better edge than the Eagles offense on the other side. Reason 1) Case Keenum’s 55.7% completion percentage under pressure has been the league’s best and his 10.7 sack conversion rate was the 2nd-best. Not only did Pat Shumur a good job with excellent scheming, Keenum also spent 2000+ plays in the virtual reality room, getting adjusted to every kind of situation / blitz / pressure and playing through all the plays again. Reports say that it helped him a lot. 2) The Vikings have maybe the best WR tandem in the league and they have a solid matchup against the Eagles CB's group. Shumur will put Keenum in pass-first situations and use the phenomenal quick route running of Diggs and the great ability to adjust at the catch point by Thielen to provide Keenum with a lot of quick options and also just 'throw it up' options. The Eagles defense will absolutely get their stops and they are also good to pick Case Keenum off, but the passing efficiency and the great opening drive scripts by Shumur might just be too overwhelming for them. The stadium is going to go nuts and the Philly crowd will bring the hammer with all the shepard masks. However, the weather conditions aren’t an advantage for the Eagles this time as weather reports call for 40°F and almost no winds. That favours the Vikings passing offense again. Nick Foles will struggle more than Case Keenum, the Vikings defense will create more stops and possibilities for turnovers. The Vikings offense should be able to score in the 20's and should stand much tougher with a lead than they did last week against the Saints. Vikings win this one and I am expecting a 24-13 kind of score. Minnesota Vikings -3 |
|||||||
01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 95 h 37 m | Show |
I think Vikes are the slightly better overall team with a brutal defense and a good offensive system. Saints D has obviously been regressing quite a bit with those injuries and depth. Bucs and Panthers moved the ball pretty well on them through the air, but the Vikings have a better offense than both of them currently. Vikes got decent OL play, an average rushing attack (has regressed without Cook), but a very efficient passing attack. The X-factor obviously is Case Keenum, but Pat Shumur had two weeks to prepare his team with concepts to attack the Saints. Keenum is always good for an interception and that risk is higher than for Brees, but this offense is so well-designed and Diggs / Thielen are phenomenal pass-catchers who make adjustments to the ball, that Keenums mistakes are rarely punished. The Saints could and likely will sell out way more against the run to make Keenum beat them. Panthers were able to stop the run vs Saints and NO had their worst rushing output this year, but Panthers didn’t have the secondary to compete with the Saints. Vikings can stop the run and have the secondary. They have enough speed on their front seven to contain Kamara in space and their 3rd down / red zone defense is elite. I trust Mike Zimmer that he put together a lot of disguised coverages to rob the Saints of certain strengths on certain plays to make Brees uncomfortable. Vikes have not allowed more than 19 points all season long and that 19 was against the Saints. They won’t be able to shut down that offense, but I think the ceiling for the Saints is around 20 points in this one. Mike Zimmer with the Vikes is 30-4 SU and 31-2-1 ATS when his team scores 21+ points. Minny have one of the greatest home fields in the league, it’s gonna be very loud which might cause some flags. The Vikes have the defense to slow down a good offense and they have the offense to put up points. I lean the home side here at something like a 24-20 / 27-21 or even 28-17 game. Minnesota Vikings -4 |
|||||||
01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 11 m | Show |
What’s going on with the Jaguars offense? Not that they ever were a unit to be afraid of with Blake Bottles at QB, but they had a very decent stretch where his weaknesses have been masked. During the last couple games, they showed complete regression, even worse than everything I could have expected. This is a top-5 offense vs the No. 1 defense so this matchup should be exciting. The Steelers will show the same gameplan on defense than the Bills: completely sell out vs the run and make Bortles beat them. From weeks 1-12, PIT D ranked 4th in yards per drive. Without Ryan Shazier who left early game 13, the Steelers rank just 29th and played offenses like BAL, CLE, HOU, (NE), CIN. That’s a huge loss and should actually do the Jags a favor. The Steelers had big issues in the first Jaguars game with poor play-calling. Overall, Haley looked lost a lot of times during the year that made the Steelers offense inefficient. The Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, so the battle in the trenches is gonna be highly interesting. The Jaguars should still find ways to force a lot of three and outs, because their personnel allows them to attack opponents in various ways. This game is going to be cold (°17 F) and likely ugly because both offenses want to avoid the opposing passing defense. If the Jaguars plays on an average level, I really like the touchdown + hook spread. Hackett might try a few long bombs (also off PA) at the very beginning to test the Steelers defense and keep them honest. Jaguars might be able to keep it close with their defense and they could have a decent shot if they can exploit the Shazier-less defense. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 |
|||||||
01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 45 m | Show |
Some people say it’s tough to beat a team three times a year. That situation occurred six times and the teams who won both previous matchups went 4-2. The Saints have dominated the Panthers twice this year for obvious reasons: they are much better in the single most important category: passing efficiency. Saints are 2nd in QBPR diff, Panthers are a horrendous 24th. The Panthers are an 8.5ish win team by Pythagorean. During their last six games they went 4-2, but in 3 of those 4 losses they were out gained in passing efficiency. They caught the Vikes in their 3rd straight road game and should have lost vs NYJ & TB. This matchup has the biggest discrepancy on my board. The Panthers will most likely get RG Trai Turner back which is huge for the offense, but they don’t have a decent passing attack. Over the second half of the season they have been leaning on the run game (Newton leads his team in rushing yards) and Christian McCaffrey in the short passing game. I don’t see how they stay within 7 in this matchup. Devin Funchess has emerged as their best WR, but he will be locked down by Marshon Lattimore. With Byrd going to IR, Newton doesn’t have options to throw to. The Saints can focus on Newton & Christian McCaffrey to force throws to Olsen or any WR. While the Panthers defense is decent, they seem not to figure out a plan to stop this Saints offense. To be competitive in this game they have to stop the Saints, but it’s a lot to ask for because that offense is so diverse: dominant run game, one of the most explosive RB in the passing game, Tedd Ginn to stretch the field and Michael Thomas who catches everything. It’s really tough to contain that offense who have scored 19+ every time this year. The Panthers need to create key turnovers and key stops to stay in this game, but I highly doubt it. Sean Payton will have his offense ready in the dome. As soon as the Panthers are behind they get forced to throw more often and that’s where Cam Newton will be limited with that kind of supporting cast he has. An efficient run game isn’t enough in the playoff. Saints should control the passing game on both sides of the ball and come up with a win of more than a touchdown here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
|||||||
01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 5 m | Show |
The Jaguars were as a surprising team as the Rams. The defense has been playing historically well, especially their pass defense. Their run defense started as the worst early in the season, but got a significant boost when they traded for Marcell Dareus. Their pass defense is amazing – brutal front-four pressure combined with good coverage on the back end by Ramsey & Bouye and a linebacking corp that can cover a lot of ground. This is a textbook pass defense. Their offense is build to pound Fournette with a solid offensive line that had some injury issues during the season but is back healthy now. The pass offense has shown some flashes here and there with great route combinations, Allen Hurns and those speedy undrafted WR's. The Jaguars had some heavy regression the last two weeks (on the road though!) on either side of the ball, getting shredded by Jimmy and Shanahan and throwing lots of picks because they were forced the throw. The Jags want to play with a lead to make the life for Bortles as easy as possible. Fortunately, they can make his life very easy this week because they play against the Bills. The Bills don’t belong into the playoffs, period. They are a truly a 6-10 team. They have the highest difference in the league between pythagorean wins and actual wins. Obviously the one Peterman half was awful, but their D got shredded that game and Taylor took care of not losing so high. During the first half of the season they created a lot of key turnovers which led to wins over bad teams (Raiders, Bucs, Broncos) and they have that one underrated QB who consistently makes the best out of that bad offense. For raw stats guys: Taylor has 14 TD & 4 INT on the year. Sean McDermott lets his defense play very reactive with a zone-heavy scheme. That works well against not-so-good offenses, but they got killed by NO, LAC, NE (2x). Also the Bucs and Jets (2nd game) had a good one against that defense. Even though they are solid against the pass, they cannot defend the run to save their lives. This is a terrible matchup for them against a Jaguars offense that has a run-first approach, has a healthy offensive line and has Fournette back after sitting out a few games. Here is the game script: The Bills defense will struggle against the Jags’ run offense and as the game goes on, they will have to stack the box to not let the Jags run away with the lead and the clock. The Jaguars will jump a lead via defense, field position and their run game. As underrated as Taylor is, he cannot carry that offense against good defenses, because he doesn’t have any decent WR's (Kelvin Benjamin isn’t one), has a bad pass protection and the run game is bad because McCoy gets older, the offensive line is decimated and they don’t have an efficient Mike Gillislee in the rotation. The Jaguars can play the box with a high emphasis, because the Bills’ passing game will be non-efficient. It’s a complete mismatch for them. WR's and TE's will be locked down, McCoy is banged up and the Jaguars can even put a spy on Taylor because they don’t have to shade coverage to known QB-WR connections. I expect the Jaguars to completely shut down the Bills on offense and use short fields and Fournette to score a couple times in the first half and make Bortles comfortable and put him into some read-option and play action kind of plays that could lead to big gains. Jaguars are a top-5 playoff team by efficiency metrics and even Bortles cannot punish them this time. They are at home, first playoff game in years and they have the superior matchup against a team that should rather be 6-10 than 9-7. JAX have dominated bad teams this season and I expect them to do the same against the Bills. Jaguars will dominate this game from start to finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come close to a shutout. Jacksonville Jaguars -8 |
|||||||
01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -6 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 36 m | Show |
The turnaround of the Los Angeles Rams has been fascinating. The offensive line is not elite, but they are good enough to execute Sean McVay's offense. McVay has made Todd Gurley the focus point of his offense (2100 scrimmage yards, 4.7 YPC, 60+ rec, 12.3 YPR, 19 total TD's) and has installed a scheme in which WR1 Sammy Watkins takes away the opponent’s best CB with coverage shades and allows guys like Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee and Todd Gurley to thrive by attacking certain coverage schemes with route combinations that are also relatively easy to read for Jared Goff. Goff hasn’t turned into an elite QB, but much more towards an average QB who executes a great scheme with great personnel (see Case Keenum in Minnesota). The most underrated aspect of McVay's work is that he understood that Tavon Austin is a bad WR with bad hands. Austin went from 107 targets & 44 punt returns in 2016 to 10 and 17 in 2017. McVay uses Pharoh Cooper as a punt returner and Austin as a runner (55 carries / 4.5 YPC) and more importantly as a threat to the run on end arounds. As soon as Austin fakes an end around, the opposing defense has to account for it, which opens up a little bit more space for runs and play-fakes. He took away every responsibility of Austin to catch passes. This offense is tough to defend for any defense. As a defense you need to provide Jared Goff with brutal front-four pressure and your front seven needs to be good against the run and quick in space. The Seahawks in week 5, the Redskins (highest pressure rate in the league; were healthy in week 2), the Vikings and the Jaguars were able to play like that and they had quite that success, turning into four losses for the Rams. The defense started very slow this year, adjusting to DC Wade Philips’ 3-4 formation and with Aaron Donald not practicing with the team until week 2, but they have been improving throughout the year I don’t think the Falcons are a true playoff team. They have a lot of close wins, could have / should have lost vs Bears, Hawks, Saints first game, Lions. They are the only team in the NFL this year that got a win when throwing 3 picks, and even better, they won two of them. Matt Ryan is having a crazy regression year, the offensive line isn’t as good as last year, other WR's other than Julio are regressing because they aren’t schemed open as they were under Shanny. The defense plays highly conservatively, trying to keep the offense in front of them. Each unit has some quality pieces, but as a whole they don’t really play highly efficient. Their defense has a bad matchup against one of the best offenses in the league. The Rams offensive line is going to win in the trenches and dictate the matchup for the better part of the game, which is very important for Jared Goff. McVay can make Gurley his focus point to get the defense account for him. This will open up the whole playbook and I expect the Rams to show us their arsenal. If the Falcons need to play Gurley, it will open up space and matchups for the TE's and WR's if Sammy Watkins draws coverage from Desmond Trufant. I expect the Rams to attack that defense on all levels of the field and move the ball downfield. If they don’t screw up red zone opportunities, it should be an easy day for the offense. The Falcons should make their priority attacking the ground game, but that can only work in a low scoring affair in which Atlanta controls the clock. Because I expect the Rams to score a lot, the Falcons might be forced to throw the ball too early. However, I expect Wade Philips and a well-rested top-5 Rams defense to come up with a good game plan to contain a Falcons offense that has been struggling in key situations throughout the season. Aaron Donald is going to line up against the Falcons guards who are absolutely the weak spots on that offensive line and he is going to wreck havoc. Rams have a superior offensive matchup and should have enough defensive quality and brain to match up well here. Rams roll, expecting something like a 34-21 kind of game. Los Angeles Rams -6 |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show | |
The Falcons got short in the first matchup. They outgained the Panthers in significant key metrics, but just came up short. They were up 10-0, but guided the Panthers the way with costly turnovers that led to short fields. The Panthers were outplayed in the passing game by the Jets, Vikings, Saints and Bucs but got punished only once. I usually like to bet teams in rematches who should have won the first time because it tells you they have a decent matchup and correct some of their mistakes in the rematch. Another point is that the Panthers can still play for the 2nd seed, but the Vikings play in the early slate. So if the Vikings win, the Panthers would need Saints or Rams to lose to jump a seed. I don’t know if they are going to bring all the intensity and don’t pull out starters late if they know they cannot get a bye. With a huge lack at WR now, the Falcons have a solid matchup with their corners, and should be able to focus on Newton & CMC runs. Falcons at home should win by a TD. Atlanta Falcons -3.5 |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
Seahawks found life last week and I don’t see them dropping this one. They are the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs right now. Seattle has had major injuries mid-way through the season and struggled mightily because of it, but similar to the Patriots early in the season, very good coaching is able to find ways to mask those injuries after a couple of games - as long as they have a well implemented system in place. The Seahawks still have the 2nd best defense heading into the NFC postseason in my opinion. No reason to wait for the possibility of them getting in to make some money off them, as they should be able to slaughter Arizona here. The Cardinals will have a very hard time scoring in this matchup. Seattle rolls. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 13 m | Show |
The Dolphins are a completely different animal at home where they are 4-2 SU (without London) and 5-1 ATS, beating opponents by 5 PPG. At home, they rank top-15 or even better in yards per pass diff and QBPR diff, just for instance. Adam Gase publicly called out his players, saying they are playing for their jobs the last two weeks. He also publicly said that he let owner Stephen Ross down. The reason is that they signed retired Jay Cutler to play QB, but that’s a different story. The Fins have a shot to play for their jobs and bring Stephen Ross a little smile by spoiling the Bills’ playoff hopes. Buffalo is also a different animal on the road where they are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, losing by a whopping 8.9 PPG. I think the Dolphins will get it done, but I'll take the field goal insurance. Miami Dolphins +3 |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Saints -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
Saints are the toughest matchup the Bucs have faced in weeks and the Saints are playing for home field advantage in the wild card round. Bucs are without OJ Howard, refuse to involve Cameron Brate somehow and are likely without Desean Jackson again. That leaves Mike Evans against Marshon Lattimore and the latter dominated that matchup in the first game so much so that Evans got ejected for throwing a punch. Saints should roll here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 90 h 60 m | Show |
Cousins is playing for a new contract and Gruden wants to end the season on a positive note after all the injuries. Giants went from a true playoff contender to a 2-13 team. However, the Giants come off a shutout loss on the road to play their last home game in front of their home fans. Will they show up? What happens to Eli Manning? Is it his last game and the team gets motivated to play for him? The Redskins defense is day and night in home/road. They give up the fewest yards per pass at home but the 3rd highest yards per pass on the road. Allowing the 2nd lowest QBPR at home, the 9th-highest on the road. I think there is a chance the Giants win straight up, but with more than a field goal insurance this is the safer play. New York Giants +3.5 |
|||||||
12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +10 | 34-6 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 58 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Houston Texans +10 |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 54 m | Show |
Zeke is back. The Cowboys offense will be back. The Seahawks defense won’t be back. Not only is the Hawks defense playing like a bottom-10 unit right now with all the injuries, they also seem to have some locker room issues and some clueless coaches. Earl Thomas publicly called out Bobby Wagner for playing limited through injury and Wagner responded harsh on Twitter. Pete Carroll didn’t have an excuse or explanation for not pulling Wilson out of the game. He looked clueless. It looks like he doesn’t have the fire right now and is a little bit disengaged. Now they travel to Dallas to play a Cowboys team that just got its sh*t together with Sean Lee back and is licking its chops with Zeke coming back. Zeke completely alters the offense and I think the Cowboys have a superior matchup for the Seahawks this week. Wagner needed to leave the game last week after not being able to run sideline to sideline so I can’t expect him to be ready to go this week. Bobby Wagner injured or not playing is a terrible loss, especially against a diverse offense as the Cowboys will be with Zeke back. The Hawks defense won’t be able to close out the space and they don’t have the corners to cover Dez Bryant in the red zone. The Boys will play away from Earl Thomas and try to exploit all the matchups in the short passing game and Dez in isolation. Seahawks won’t have any answers for that offense and I doubt they can play catch-up with that offensive line (DAL defense ranks 2nd in pressure rate) and without a running game. Wilson had one magic game and that’s about it. The Boys offense can impose its will and kill the clock in the second half to avoid any kind of Wilson magic. Seeing some kind of Boys win in the range of 31-17. Dallas Cowboys -4.5 |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | Top | 33-44 | Loss | -102 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
Jimmy Garoppolo this, Jimmy Garoppolo that. All I am hearing about the Niners is how Jimmy G is the savior of the Niners. Let’s sum up the last three weeks: Niners played the Bears, Texans and Titans. The best defense of the bunch is Chicago and that isn't saying much. The Niners barely won and scored five field goals for 15 points. The other two games were against the 18th and 22nd ranked defenses. Neither of these defenses were able to exploit the Niners’ weaknesses – their OL and WRs. Also neither of these offenses was able to score enough. Thanks Tennessee HC Mike Mularkey, the Niners had a chance to beat the Titans on Sunday. Kudos to Jimmy & Kyle Shanahan – they did a great job winning all three games and making the Niners offense look alive again. What you don’t see in the stats is Garoppolos passion for throwing passes straight to defenders. There were like 8 passes that could have been intercepted over the last two weeks but defenders just didn’t make a play – regression incoming. This week there is a completely different animal coming to town. The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking like the most complete AFC team right now. The defense has been playing in its own league and is putting up better passing efficiency than the 2013 Seahawks. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Niners have +1.0 net yards per play which ranks 6th. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Jaguars have +1.7 net yards per play which ranks 2nd. It took me a few weeks to get away from the “As long as Blake Bortles is the QB, that team is going nowhere” thinking. That offense looks as solid as it gets and they are very well coached. Last Sunday they were without their three best WR's and best RB and they steamrolled the Texans. OC Nathaniel Hackett is doing an awesome job, making Blake Bortles look comfortable. Over the course of the season, this offense ranks exactly average. Since week 7, Bortles has 12 passing TD's, 2 rushing TD's and 3 INT's. The most surprising aspect is how the offensive line has been performing. They rank 5th in adjusted sack rate, Bortles has a of time in the pocket. You already saw that in week 1 against a healthy Texans defense, Bortles was able to drink a beer in the pocket. During the season, Brandon Linder, Jeremy Parnell and Patrick Omameh all got injured and were missing time at some point. Now they are back in full strength and provide Bortles with a lot of clean pockets throwing to speedy WR's like Westbrook, Cole and Mickens running crossing patterns on great route combinations across the field. On these patterns, Bortles rarely has to throw with anticipation, he just needs his WR's to clear zones or run a yard away from their defenders to hit them in stride. He also has been throwing a few dots over the last few games. With the offense moving towards an average unit and Bortles looking good in a great system, this team is getting very scary, because they will get Fournette and Allen Robinson back at some point. The 49ers are no matchup for the Jaguars. We can argue the cross-country trip, but the Jaguars were resting starters in the fourth quarter last week and still play for a first round bye since the Steelers lost Antonio Brown and Ben is a bit limping. Jags hold the tiebreaker over PIT. As much as Shanahan will try to scheme guys open and put Garoppolo into a lot of quick release passes, it won’t be enough to move the ball on an historically great defense. That offensive line is going to get eaten alive and the Jaguars don’t need to respect the run or the pass either way. Sacksonville will be ready to roll throughout that game. On offense, the Jaguars will do enough again against the No. 29 ranked defense in weighed DVOA. This is men vs boys, Jaguars take this one home by 10+. |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Lions -5 v. Bengals | 17-26 | Loss | -104 | 111 h 26 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Detroit Lions -5 |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Bills v. Patriots -11.5 | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 111 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New England Patriots -11.5 |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Browns +6.5 v. Bears | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Cleveland Browns +6.5 |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -10 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Kansas City Chiefs |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Falcons v. Saints -5.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 112 h 31 m | Show |
I am regretting taking the Falcons on MNF. I really thought they are good enough to beat a Buccaneers team that is without several defensive key players comfortably, but they once again showed that they don’t have it this year. They were even out gained on a per-play base, by the Bucs! The Saints committed an unusual 3 turnovers against the Jets last Sunday (two in the red zone) and got a touchdown called back, but they out gained them pretty comfortably. Two weeks ago we took the Saints at Atlanta and we got victimized by a variance game. The Saints lost Alvin Kamara early on which completely altered their game and the Falcons survived with the help of the refs after throwing 3 INT's. The Saints out gained them by 0.6 yards per play. I have no doubt that they would have won the game without the injuries. They wanted to win the game at the end and threw a game-deciding pick instead of going to overtime. This time the Saints will nearly be in full strength, with a full week to prepare, in their personal early Super Bowl. There is such a big discrepancy in efficiency for the Falcons, I don’t see how they overcome that another time to keep this one close. They aren’t a playoff team in terms of efficiency. Atlanta is still bad against passes to RB and that’s where the Saints are going to hammer them all game long as they were supposed to do two weeks ago. On the very first drive, Kamara caught two passes for 29 yards before getting shredded to a concussion. Expect the full Kamara dose this week in a game that shouldn’t bounce the Falcons’ way as it did two weeks ago. New Orleans Saints -5.5 |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Rams -6.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 29 m | Show |
This one looks like a no-brainer, but I believe it is just one. There are light years between these two teams: offense, defense, special teams, coaching. Sean McVay is an awesome coach and already miles ahead of Mike Mularkey. The Rams already played two early east coast games this year and came out as winners. McVay will have his team ready to compete, so I am not expecting a letdown spot by any means. The only key for the Titans is playing Mularkey ball with Derrick Henry vs a questionable run D, but just as long as the Rams don’t pull away on the scoreboard. Mularkey still loves using Murray as his primary back even though Henry runs much more efficient. Against a bad Titans pass defense, I truly expect the Rams to pull away on the scoreboard via the pass and avoid a lot of runs against a good run D (McVay is smart) and then it doesn’t help the Titans to face a top-5 pass D with Wade Philips coaching vs. Mike Mularkey & Torry Robiskie. It also doesn’t help that Mariota is seriously injured and is considering ankle surgery in the off-season. The Titans have played a bottom-3 schedule on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency and they played the easiest W/L-schedule. They have been trending downwards since week 3 and are only still in the playoffs because they barely beat teams like Browns, Colts and Texans without Watson. They played against two top-10 offenses, Steelers and Texans with Watson, and they conceded 40 and 50 defensive points. I expect Mularkey to lose the coaching battle easily and the Rams to put up 30+ points here to make another statement into the direction of the 3rd seed. Los Angeles Rams -6.5 |
|||||||
12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
A lot of injuries on the Atlanta defensive side (Gerald McCoy, Lavante David, +many others), combined with a true must win for Atlanta considering they have two tough games remaining (NO and CAR) and need to win two of the remaining three to make the playoffs. Despite the Falcons not looking like a Super Bowl contender this season, they are coming off 10 days rest I expect them to come out firing tonight. People are jumping on the touchdown dogs at home, but the real value 'aka the Sharp Side' lies in the visiting team. Atlanta Falcons -6.5 |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New England Patriots -2.5 |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
*Barking Dog* Russell Wilson’s performance against the Eagles was a fluke. His mechanics are still bad, maybe he is secretly injured. He needs a whole lot of strength to loft balls deep instead of flipping it as he did his entire career. Turns out into bad accuracy with high variation. This time is the Rams’ best chance to beat the Seahawks as their defense is falling apart. No Chancellor, Sherman, Avril and now they lost Wagner and Wright last Sunday. Wagner was already banged up and this week he is going to be a game time decision but I highly doubt he is going to play. Wagner is the play-caller and probably the best LB in the league this year. Anticipation against run & play-action and zone discipline take a huge hit without him and that’s really bad against the Rams as Sean McVays offense is based on heavy play fakes to open up receivers in space and attack soft spots in certain zone concepts. With a thin defensive line, it’s gonna be real tough to generate consistent stops against the Rams that way. You can expect the Seahawks defense to offer certain space to Gurley & TEs underneath and without Sherman they don’t have the corners to match up with Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods who is likely returning this week. I expect the Rams to be able to score in the 20's this week and be very well prepared in a revenge game. The first time these two met in week 5, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 375 – 241 total yards and by an astonishing 1.6 yards per play. The key difference was that the Seahawks defense was healthy that time and held the Rams to 0/4 in the red zone. One red zone attempt was completely fluky because Gurley scored a touchdown and dropped the ball away for a touchdown. They also had a missed FG. So a score of 17-16 Rams would have mirrored the 60 minutes much better than 10-16. The Rams defense with getting Trumaine Johnson back should have enough power to overwhelm the Seahawks and they always had their number during the last couple seasons. Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (play down to -2.5 if necessary) |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Ravens -7 v. Browns | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 53 m | Show | |
*Fave of the Week* The Cleveland Browns spend the practice weeks inventing new ways to blow covers. They had their personal Super Bowl last week, their best chance to win a game. They were up 21-7 and managed to lose 21-27 despite outgaining the Packers by 1.5 yards per play. Now they get to play a Ravens team desperate for a win off a close prime time loss vs their rivals. Big Ben & Antonio Brown had a good matchup against Baltimore last week in their first game without Jimmy Smith. And it looks like they went off on the Ravens D, but the score looks much worse than it actually was. They had so many yards and points because they ran 85 plays with 66 passes. These high-paced games are rare and occur a handful of times per season. Defenses get worn out in the fourth quarter – same here as the Ravens gave up 19 points then. The Steelers did nothing really special from an efficiency standpoint, they just chased the game in a successful way through the best WR in the league. That’s an achievement without a doubt, but it shouldn’t let the Ravens defense look awful. The Browns don’t have a Ben-Brown matchup to exploit the Ravens’ secondary, even though Josh Gordon is a great addition to that offense. I am expecting the same kind of game we saw in the first matchup with the Ravens defense shutting down the Browns and the offense doing just enough to make the effort of the defense and special teams count. Ravens by 10+. Baltimore Ravens -7 |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Bengals v. Vikings -11.5 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Minnesota Vikings -11.5 |
|||||||
12-17-17 | Packers +3 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Green Bay Packers +3 |
|||||||
12-16-17 | Chargers -1 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 43 m | Show |
If you had asked me before the season who is the better team in this one, I would have said Chargers. Ask me now and I scream Chargers! LAC is playing lights out right now, on offense and on defense. Their only weakness is red zone efficiency as they converted only 4 red zone trips out of 15 into touchdowns during the last three games. 26.6% would rank dead-last in the league over the course of a season. However, this number should regress to the mean (league average is 54%) sooner than later, for instance against the Chiefs’ 20th ranked red zone defense (56%). That’s the scary part – the Chargers were highly underachieving in that area of the field. But the interesting part is that they consistently put themselves into a position to score even a FG while their defense shuts opponents down. Since the Eagles game they have allowed an average of 13.9 defensive PPG. Despite all the early season struggles, their offense is really flying under the radar. Anthony Lynn has established a great scheme that creates open routes, quick options for Rivers and a lot of big play opportunities. In the first game between these two, the Chargers lost 10-24 in embarrassing fashion. They were 0-3 in turnovers and the Chiefs scored 17 points off three interceptions. It was a stretch when the Chiefs were red-hot and the Chargers were ice-cold. It was also the time when they haven’t figured out their offense yet, Keenan Allen was still rusty and Hunter Henry wasn’t involved in the offense. Now the situation is reversed – the Chargers are red-hot and playing like a true Super Bowl contender whereas the Chiefs lost 6 of their last 8 with two wins against the Broncos and the fraud team from Oakland. The Chargers are light years ahead of those two. Los Angeles is going to Arrowhead and should dominate this Chiefs squad from start to finish. Chiefs are sure to have some success via Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt on the ground, but I expect their WRs to be non-existent and the Chargers defend passes to RBs very well. Chiefs will struggle in the most important area – passing offense. Even if the Chiefs make it into the red zone, they have been struggling mightily in that area of the field and the Chargers defense ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency (38%) right after the Jaguars. The Chargers offense should move the ball pretty efficiently here as the Chiefs have a bad defense with a bad pass rush and a horrible track record vs WR1's. Keenan Allen is red-hot and should kill that secondary even with Marcus Peters back. Chargers win this one and put themselves into the AFC West lead. Los Angeles Chargers -1 |
|||||||
12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +12 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
The Patriots will be hard pressed to find enough motivation to cover the spread on Monday night. With a league leading and potential 1st round bye matchup looming against the Steleers next week, Gronk sidelined with a suspension and a heavy travel schedule as of late, the Patriots ability to win by nearly two touchdowns on the road in a primetime game would be very surprising. The Dolphins are certainly not a great team by any means, however bad/average teams perform much better in their own stadium and they are seeking that quality win in 2017 - something which they've yet to achieve. They lost in London to NO 20-0, they lost on primetime to BAL 40-0, they lost on primetime to CAR 45-21 and they lost earlier this year to the Pats 35-17. We all know how good the Patriots can be, however with the loss of Gronkowski, the offense won't come so easily especially in the red zone. The last time Gronk missed a game, the Pats scored 19 points on the road including 1 touchdown and 4 field goals to the Bucs. When the Pats beat Miami two weeks ago, he went off for 82 yards and 2 TD's. Additionally, the Pats travel schedule has taken them from Boston to Denver, then to Mexico, back to Boston, then to Buffalo, now to Miami. The Dolphins have been home for 3 of the last 4 weeks and will definitely be the more rested and healthier team. The Pats will have difficulty keeping the peddle down for an entire 60 minutes of football in this one. They always beat Miami and just beat them by 18 two weeks ago, they aren't healthy, they've had a ton of travel, and they're playing for home field advantage in the playoffs in 7 days from now. For the Dolphins this is a huge motivation game being a division rival, a primetime game and being at home. Miami Dolphins +12 |
|||||||
12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +6 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 17 m | Show |
*Syndicate Steam* Finally the Giants got rid of HC Ben McAdoo. He did a great job from 2014-2015 as the OC, but since he has been the HC the offense has arguably been bottom three material. This season he lost everyone on the roster. The “team plays hard after the HC got fired” angle is one of my favourite. I truly expect the Giants to come out firing on both sides to destroy all playoffs hopes the Cowboys still have. I like Steve Spagnuolo as a DC and I believe he hasn’t had any discrepancies with the team – he will get them ready to roll. OC Mike Sullivan will try to get creative – it may not be enough to light up a bad Cowboys defense with Sean Lee back, but it should be enough to cover this game. The Cowboys destroyed the Redskins in prime time – atleast that’s what the final result says. But the truth is, the Redskins actually outgained them while losing by 24. More total yards, more yards per play, held Dak to 11/22 for 96 net yards passing, but they had 4 turnovers and the Cowboys had zero. Even the 4.3 YPC by the Cowboys weren’t anything special, but the Redskins weren’t able to generate key stops on the short fields they provided. We should have the same opinion on the Cowboys offense we had pre TNF – they aren’t good at all. The Giants’ defensive line around JPP, Vernon and Snacks is still able to win in the trenches and Spagnuolo always seems to be in Dak’s mind. In their three games with Dak against this Giants defense with Spag as the DC, the Cowboys haven’t topped 20 points. They scored 20, 10 and 19. If the Giants don’t lose the turnover battle by -4 as the Skins did I don’t see how the Cowboys get into the 20's here. If they don’t get into the 20's, the spread of +3.5 to +6 should be money. New York Giants +6 (this line is sure to move, play down to +3.5 if necessary) |
|||||||
12-07-17 | Saints +2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
The key to this game is a 21-year old CB who plays for the New Orleans Saints – Marshon Lattimore. If Lattimore plays this week (currently Questionable), he will shadow Julio which makes the job of Matt Ryan almost as uncomfortable as it was against the Vikes. The Saints defense in general isn’t as stout as the Vikings and the Falcons will be efficient on the ground, but taking away Julio allows the Saints defense to shift their attention to the other guys and to stack the box even more. Last Sunday, the Falcons were held to 9 points and 1/10 on third down. For the first seven weeks, the Falcons offense wasn’t efficient by any means. Steve Sarkisian basically didn’t know how to get that offense going. He didn’t involve Julio Jones enough. From week 8 to 12, this offense played differently. Sarkisian involved Julio a lot more on first down and deep passes which completely altered the offense. Per Warren Sharp, Julio was targeted 44% on first down and 66% deep (from 30%) between week 8 and 12. The offense was moving the ball much more efficiently and had a much easier job on third down when they got to it. All other WRs benefited from that. During that span, they faced NYJ, CAR, DAL, SEA & TB. NONE of these teams had a quality CB1 that was able to match up with Julio. Last Sunday, “Rhodes closed” was shadowing him and his stat line was 2-24-0 on 6 targets. This led to a worse first down efficiency than usual and the Falcons’ average distance to go on third down was 8.4 yards. It’s tough to move the sticks that way. Falcons should be able to put up points, but the Saints defense will generate some key stops. That brings us to the Falcons defense that looked to have a good day against the Vikings offense. Atlanta has a bottom-3 run defense but somehow managed to hold the Vikes to 3.4 yards per carry. However, the Saints and their two-headed monster Kamara/Ingram (fingers crossed Ingram can play as he is still Questionable) are still a different category and should move the ball all day on the Falcons front seven and their secondary doesn’t have enough firepower to consistently match up with all the Saints WRs without much help from the front four against a good NO pass protection. It should be noted that LG Andrus Peat is out for the Saints, however this was expected and backup Senio Kelemete will fill in. Kelemete is a 27 year old vet at 6'3" 300lbs, so I don't expect a huge drop in performance at LG. Also, LT Terron Armstead should be back. I love the Saints here with Lattimore playing and the Saints should get more key stops on defense which could lead to a 27-21 kind of win, but taking any kind of points here is a bonus. New Orleans Saints +2.5 (buy up to +3 if -115 or less) |
|||||||
12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This game presents itself as a great revenge opportunity for the Bengals and I expect them to take full advantage. Cincinnati looks to salvage their season (5W-6L; currently 3rd in AFCN) after winning two straight games and getting a dvision home primetime game against their rival Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have won 5 straight games over the Bengals and have won all games in Cincy dating back to 2013. The Steelers, winners of 6 straight games coming into tonight's matchup, come in to this game a little banged up with Antonio Brown being a game time decision. If he can't go that would be huge for the Bengals, however they'll still need to keep their eye on Martavis Bryant and the rest of the WR's who would fill in for AB. I expect a motivated performance on defense this evening by the Bengals after losing 29-14 in Pittsburgh earlier this year. Look for Atkins to provide a lot of pressure on an aging Roethisberger who doesn't seem to avoid back field tackles like he once did. Coming off a +100 yard performance on the ground, look for Joe Mixon to establish the run in order to set up a Dalton/Green combination down field. The Bengals may eventually shoot themselves in the foot like they've done a lot this year already, however we are getting substantial points at home for an important division game under the national spotlight and the line value is simply too much. They may lose in the end, but I expect them to compete and make it a close game. Cincinnati Bengals +6 (play down to +4.5) |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Seattle Seahawks +6 |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New Orleans Saints -5 |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Vikings +3 v. Falcons | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
'Top Underdog of Week 13' The Minnesota Vikings are still not getting enough credit in my opinion. +3 at Atlanta means they would be even on a neutral field – disagree! The Vikings are the better team, playing better Football on both sides of the ball and all that against a stronger schedule. Purple Pain ranks 1st in my efficiency ranking and played the 4th-toughest efficiency schedule. I am missing quality wins from the Falcons this season. They had a quality win against the Packers who lost both their starting tackles in that game when I remember right. They lost vs the Bills, Dolphins and got killed by the Pats. They won a stinker against the Jets, so they aren’t far away from going 0-4 against the AFC East. They were dominant against the Cowboys without Zeke, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee. They won at Seattle by gaining less than 200 pass yards and less than 100 rush yards. Less than 5% of the teams since 1989 scored 30+ points in that scenario – the Falcons are one of them. They played a Bucs team that lost 3 offensive linemen along with their two best (Dotson & Marpet) and SS TJ Ward during the game, that was without their best cornerback (Hargreaves) and their best defensive end (Ayers). You cannot decide who you play, but you can decide how you play them and I am really missing quality wins from the Falcons. Games in which they really dominated a good opponent from start to finish. So now they are -3 favs against the Vikings? I expected that line to be around pk. The Falcons have a bad matchup against the top-teams in the NFC simply because of their defense. For the past two weeks I have been wondering they the good per-play efficiency of the Falcons doesn’t pass the eye test. They play a very conservative defense without a lot of blitzes. They want to limit big plays and keep the game in front of them. They limit big plays but they don’t efficiently shutting down opposing offenses. Last week the Bucs offense lost three starting linemen and still moved the ball on them. They turned the ball over in the Falcons red zone on 4th & 1 by throwing deep so they had a shot at scoring more than 20. That Vikings offensive line is gonna impose its will on them all game long. They are going to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant is in the concussion protocol and didn’t practice on Wednesday. If he is absent, Brian Poole and Robert Alford will play outside against arguably the best WR tandem in the NFL – Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. When Thielen plays in the slot, it’s Brian Poole or rookie safety Demontae Kazee on him – disaster. The Vikings should have no trouble posting 30+ points against the Falcons and make a huge statement. The Falcons offense is a bit overrated in my opinion and they are going to have problems moving the ball on one of the best defenses. With Matt Ryans interception-regression year I wouldn’t be surprised by 2 interceptions even though Case Keenum is also always good for one. Vikings should get a road win at Atlanta against a team that is overrated IMO and isn’t expected to compete with the NFC juggernauts. Vikings +3 |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 101 h 32 m | Show |
'Top Fave of Week 13' I keep saying this: the Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. The loss to the Vikes should have been a blowout, but they were gifted the TD drive right before halftime and got another TD when Stafford threw it up into double coverage. Vikes missed four points by kicking. A score of 34-17ish would have been closer to reality. Now they travel to Baltimore to play the No.1 ranked defense on the road in an open stadium. The Ravens defense also ranks 4th in scoring and 3rd in yards per play. This is going to be one heck of an away game for the Lions. It also doesn’t help that Stafford has a bad ankle when playing against that Ravens front seven. He said he should be good to go, but his ankle got rolled just 10 days ago and he desperately needs fluidity in his legs because he isn’t a really good pocket passer and needs his legs to create big plays out of structure. The Lions can’t run the ball (bottom-3 run offense), but play against a top-10 run defense. The Ravens will absolutely shut down the run game and find strategies to make Stafford uncomfortable and create short fields for the Ravens run game and their offensive MVP Justin Tucker. Another game with a +1 or higher turnover advantage for the Ravens wouldn’t surprise me at all. Seeing a 23-16 kind of game in favour of Baltimore. Ravens -2.5 (-3 fine too) |
|||||||
12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 66 h 33 m | Show |
The Jets moved the ball pretty well against a top-10 defense last week (Panthers) and had some bad luck. Austin Seferian-Jenkins dropped the easiest TD he will catch in his entire career and another great TD grab was ruled incomplete which was weird. Both touchdown opportunities resulted in field goals. The Panthers had a fumble return touchdown and a special teams touchdown. The Jets actually outgained them by almost 100 total yards and 1.3 yards per play. Usually I think twice about taking a team late in the season that doesn’t play for the playoffs but this Jets team is a little bit different. Atleast that is what I read between the lines when listening to interviews. They are very young across the team and they are highly motivated. Todd Bowles gets them to play with passion. Before the season started, everyone (including myself) said they would be playing for the 1st overall pick and when you see them play, especially the defense, it seems they play with a chip on their shoulder. It isn’t enough to beat the better and way more experienced teams but they can play a lot of games close which they absolutely did. I don’t consider the Chiefs a good team right now and they come into this game in a downward spiral. I wasn’t high on them going into the season but they proved me wrong. Over the last few weeks they have finally been playing to how I expected them to play: bad defense, weak WR corps and a QB who produces great conservative stats but can’t rip coverages apart and prefers the screen pass everytime. The Chiefs surprised opposing defenses with their creative concepts early in the season. Defenses caught up and copied the Steelers gameplan – play zone, limit YAC and let Smith make reads from the pocket. Since the Raiders game on TNF, the Chiefs have scored an average of 14.5 offensive PPG in regulation and that includes the weird touchdown at the end of the first half at Dallas. Their defense didn’t look bad the last couple games because they played DEN, NYG and BUF. The current Jets offense is better than those three. Never expected I would say this but the Jets offense has a good matchup this week. The Jets will go run-first against the worst run defense in the league. I expect Forte and Powell to go off here because the Jets are one of the few teams that possess a reliable and respected deep threat – Robby Anderson is having a Pro Bowl season. He has a TD in each of the last five games. He is a great vertical receiver that can make adjustments at the catch point to catch tight window or off-target throws. The Chiefs have to account for that all the time on shot plays while also needing to send extra help into the box to boost a bad run defense. This is a simple numbers game and the Jets offense has a big advantage. The Chiefs have to rely on McCown mistakes here otherwise they are going to struggle to stop the Jets throughout major parts of the game. The Chiefs on offense don’t seem to do anything against a hard playing defense with two top-5 DROY candidates at FS and SS who are going to limit the Chiefs’ run and screen game. Jets should win this game and I will gladly take a +3. New York Jets +3.5 (+3 is fine) |
|||||||
11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens -7.5 | 16-23 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
The Ravens host the Texans on Monday Night Football and I expect a complete performance by the home team. The Ravens have a very clean bill of health coming into MNF Week 12, with likely only one starting scratch (Guard Eluemunor). All the other starters including Mosley, Suggs, Jimmy Smith and both starting Tackles look ready to go. With their starting unit in tack, this should lead to excellent execution on both sides of the ball. Already a very low penalized team in the NFL (6th least in 2017), look for the Ravens to be the ones applying all the pressure in what is sure to be a hostile environment. Knowing the Texans have really only Hopkins and Miller as offensive threats, the game plan will be to double Hopkins with Smith and Carr or Humphrey; and the run defense will then allow to get pressure in the backfield. They already rank 2nd in pass defense with 185.2 yards allowed per game and they have a league leading 16 interceptions. On offense don't sleep on Woodhead/Collins or Maclin/Wallace. Harbaugh will find a way to use his weapons against a very banged up Texans D. The Texans are up their with some of the most penalized teams (23rd of 32 teams, 32nd being the worst). What hurts them even more is the amount of injuries they have on both sides of the ball, which should lead to even more penalties. Will Fuller out leaves them without a true deep threat and as mentioned earlier, Hopkins is going to have a very difficult night with the double team. Savage finally picked up a win last week, but playing in Baltimore on MNF is a completely different beast. No Watt, no Mercilius, no Cushing, no Foreman, and even Clowney is coming in with a nagging ankle injury. Note: The Ravens haven't hosted a MNF game since 2012, so you know the crowd and players will be amped up. Also this is an official blackout game, not media, but team colours and fans - another huge motivation factor. I don't like the Texans (Savage) chances coming back from any kind of deficit. Once the Ravens get out to a lead I expect the Texans to have to abandon their game strategy and be forced to air it out against essentially the best pass D in the league. The Ravens should handle the Texans by at least 10. Ravens -7.5 |
|||||||
11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 54 m | Show |
The Rams are in a crazy bounce back spot – they come off one of the toughest games possible, a road game at Minnesota. They were supposed to lose. The perception of them shouldn’t change off that 7-24 loss – they were simply outplayed in terms of matchups. They were able to hang tough until the 2nd half, had a fumble at the goal line and at the end their defense just got worn out, because the Vikes ran 73 offensive plays which is way above average. The Rams played three times against top-10 defenses (JAX, SEA, MIN) and scored 16, 10 & 7 offensive points. All three of those teams were able to create a disrupting pass rush to make Jared Goff feel uncomfortable in the pocket. The Vikings also completely shut down the run game after the first Rams drive, which put Goff into a lot of long passing situations. Everson Griffen didn’t register a sack against Andrew Whitworth, but he was able to push the pocket very often, which also led to a sack by Danielle Hunter. Goff still isn’t the greatest passer – he needs confidence in his pocket and open receivers. When a defense is able to condense the pocket and close a lot of space (as Vikes did with their athletic LBs), he is forced to fit balls into tight windows and that’s something he struggles with. The Saints come off a crazy comeback-win on overtime and the media is praising them just as they already won the Super Bowl. After Jay Gruden gave the ball back with some terrible decisions, Drew Brees threw a pick on the final drive but it came back because of a flag – the Saints shouldn’t have won that game. New Orleans are on a 8-0 win streak, but their schedule during that stretch becomes more and more weaker. Their defense looked awesome, but they faced a lot of the weaker offenses in the league. Now dealing with injuries, this is the perfect letdown spot for them. Over their last 5 games, they had games vs the Packers, Bears, Bucs, Bills and Redskins. 3 of their last 4 were at home. The Redskins were the best offense they faced since week 2 and Washington moved the ball at will on them, especially after Marshon Lattimore went down. It’s not sure whether Lattimore will play this week. Not being able to play a snap with that bad ankle sounds pessimistic. Lattimore really has been the key to that defense, because he can shut down the outside WR and the defense can shade their remaining coverage over to the middle which closes more space for other receivers. But even with Lattimore, the Saints don’t have a good matchup against the Rams – if Watskins is covered, the Rams have enough playmakers to create matchup problems for the rest of the Saints defense. Another big advantage for the Rams will be the ability to run efficiently on the Saints run defense that ranks bottom-5. The Saints lost DE Alex Okafor which can be described as a big loss. He has been a force against the run, producing 10 TFL and the third-highest run stop percentage in the NFL. He also added 4.5 sacks. His backup – rookie Trey Hendrickson – has seen the field mostly as a pass rusher and needs to refine his game. He will be a major downgrade from Okafor and won’t be a threat to Andrew Whitworth. Taking away a good run defender from a bad run D isn’t a good idea. So Goff can simply ignore the left side of the pass rush and focus on hitting receivers in space on shorter downs than last week, because the Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground. I am expecting a big game by the offense and a good-enough game from the defense to seal a home win in a very good spot. Rams -2.5 |
|||||||
11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 65 h 12 m | Show | |
*Subscriber only pick* The fact that this division is so close now tells me the Panthers are not going to lay an egg here. They simply have to win this game and if they do, it shouldn’t be close. That being said, this play is more a fade of the Jets than a play on Carolina. The Jets offense is just bad despite playing the 32nd-ranked schedule. They beat the Jags with two big runs when their run defense was the worst in the league in the pre-Dareus era. They beat the Browns in maybe the flukiest win of the season. They didn’t cross 20 points in regulation in either game. It would surprise me if the Jets offense is going to do anything in this game. I think a turnover-fest is much more likely than them scoring close to 20 points. The Panthers just have to take care of business. They haven’t been a good offense year to date, but I am expecting them to find their groove coming out of a bye and Funchess has proven that he's capable of filling the Kelvin Benjamin void and should be able to continue that here on Sunday. I think they have enough potential to score in the 20s this week and might even cross 30 if the Jets produce some costly turnovers. I am seeing a 31-14 kind of game in favour of Carolina. Carolina Panthers -5 |
|||||||
11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 85 h 26 m | Show |
The Detroit Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. They won another game in which they were outgained in total yards and yards per play, but they got a defensive touchdown off a fumbled snap. They now lead the league with five defensive touchdowns. On their game-winning drive against the Bears, Matt Stafford threw a pick that was dropped and later Matt Prater hit a 52yd field goal. Then Mitch Trubisky converted a long 4th down with his legs before Connor Barth missed the game-tying field goal. The way this Lions team keeps winning games isn’t sustainable. In the first game against the Vikes, they benefited from 3 fumbles and the Dalvin Cook injury. They won the last three games against the Vikings in fluky fashion and I believe they cannot do it a fourth time. The Vikings are so much better than the Lions. They had to switch QBs, play with a backup QB, lost their RB threat (still the most rush yards on the team) and still went 8-2 on a solid schedule. Without Bradford getting injured, they might be 9-1 or even 10-0 to this point. They don’t get outgained by worse competition, they just easily beat them. IMO, the Vikes are one of the best overall teams in the NFL at this point. Before the season started, Matt Stafford was 5-46 SU against teams who finished the season with a winning record. If you think the Panthers, Vikes, Saints and Steelers finish with a winning record, he is now 6-49 SU and 6-50 considering the Falcons a winning team. I disagreed with the line opening at pickem and immediately took the Vikes. The line got bet up very quickly and is now much closer to where it should be. It wouldn’t surprise me if this line reached -3 come Thursday before we will see some buyback on the Lions. I think the Vikings will put a beating on the Lions this time and make a strong case for one of the two top-seeds in the NFC. Minnesota Vikings PK'em |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Eagles -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show |
Last year the Eagles got slowed down by the bye week, but the Cowboys are in trouble and everyone should focus on their injury report. Without Sean Lee, this defense gets shredded and gives up more than 5 YPC. Without Tyron Smith, Prescott faces pressure all game long. Without Zeke, the offense misses an important element. If the Eagles play up to their strengths, they should roll the Cowboys. Eagles -4 |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Bengals +2.5 v. Broncos | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Bengals +2.5 |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
Not only do I believe that the Pats are 6.5 points better than the Raiders, I also believe they show them what a real playoff team is. The Raiders come off their bye, but they stay at Oakland all week to prepare for the game. The Pats played in Denver in high elevation and they stay the week in Colorado Springs (6,000 ft) in the Air Force facility to prepare for the game in Mexico (7,200 ft). That’s very smart by Bill Belichick and a major advantage for New England. The Raiders prepare for the game at 43 ft elevation. The slow Pats defense held 6 of 9 teams to 20 points or less and the other three teams (KC, HOU, CAR) have QBs who can create plays with their legs and play in offenses that can create in space. The Raiders are a more static offense with a QB who doesn’t want to hold the ball. Belichick will have his defense ready – we might see a lot of three-men rushes. Raiders defense is no matchup for the Patriots and their No. 1 ranked offense. Pats should roll a minor opponent on a neutral field with good preparation. Pats -6.5 it is. Patriots -6.5 |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 56 m | Show |
Despite the Rams 7-2 record, I am skeptical regarding the rest of the season. The Rams played a soft schedule thus far. Here are their wins: blowout vs Colts with Scott Tolzien, close shootout win vs Niners, close shootout win vs Cowboys, “quality win” vs Jaguars with two special teams scores, blowout vs Cards, blowout vs the Giants who quit, blowout vs a decimated Texans team with Tom Savage. Their two losses are against a healthy Redskins team and the Hawks. If we consider the Texans a bottom-10 team without Watson, the Rams have 5 wins vs bottom-10 teams and 2 wins vs Dallas and Jaguars (14 points by special teams). They were actually outgained by total yards and yards per play in both games. That isn’t too impressive, is it? Now they go to the Bank, one of the toughest places to play in the NFL right now. The Vikings defense is impressive and is something the Rams haven’t faced this year besides Seattle and Jacksonville. In those games, the Rams scored 10 and 13 offensive points. If you count the fumble touchback by Gurley, they scored 17 and 13 vs two top-10 defenses. Purple Pain has held every team at 19 points or below at home this year and they would be unbeaten if they didn’t fumble the ball away 3 times vs Detroit in the game Dalvin Cook got hurt. This is a complete challenge for the Rams and I expect them to struggle the same way they struggled against the Hawks and Jaguars. If you watch the Rams offense, one thing gets obvious: Jared Goff almost never needs to throw into tight windows/coverage as his receivers are just schemed wide-open and he has a lot of time in the pocket. Whitworth is going to play against the candidate for DPOY, Everson Griffen. Griffen won’t win a lot of matchups, but he will send more pressure from Goffs blind side than the QB is used to get in other games. On the other side, Danielle Hunter has an intriguing matchup against Rob Havenstein who still struggles a bit in pass protection. The run defense of Minnesota is really good as well as their red zone defense. Jared Goff will be forced to make much more difficult throws than usual. A great matchup for the Rams is Robert Woods vs Trae Waynes, but Goff still needs to throw with anticipation under pressure to exploit that certain matchup consistently and I don’t think he is able to do that. I am seeing an equal offensive output as they had vs Seattle and Jacksonville. Vikings should just score enough on offense to win that game on the back of their defense. Vikings -2 |
|||||||
11-19-17 | Ravens -2 v. Packers | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
This is a must-win game for the Ravens. They are 4-5 and one win away from the AFC wild card (Bills). Steelers, Patriots and Chiefs are too far away, Jaguars and Titans hold the tiebreaker against the Ravens. If they want to play in January, they gotta focus on the last wild card. They know that the Bills have a ceiling of 8-8/9-7 with games vs LAC, IND & MIA (2x) left. They simply have to win this game to put themselves into a good position for the wild card race. The Packers come off a surprising divisional win, whereas the Ravens are off their bye and have one day extra rest before the next game at Houston on Monday. John Harbaugh is one of the better post-bye coaches in the league, going 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS and winning by 8.9 PPG off a bye since being the HC in Baltimore. The final score in the Packers/Bears game last Sunday is a little bit misleading. The Bears missed Danny Trevathan badly against the run, they had bad tackling and produced stupid flags in the secondary which guided some big plays for GB and on top of that, they had a sure touchdown that Benny Cunningham fumbled into the end zone for a touchback. John Fox challenged the play and the touchback was the result. Without a challenge, they would have had the ball at the goal line. The Ravens live and die with their defense, but that should be enough to win here. The Ravens defense is stout on a very easy schedule. They have the ability to make below average offenses look bad. Their revamped secondary with Tony Jefferson, a healthy Jimmy Smith, rookie Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr has been playing very well. And Jimmy Smith just got much healthier during the bye, he missed lots of snaps over the last few games. NT Brandon Williams is arguably their most important player, but he was injured from weeks 3-6. This is a horrible matchup for a Packers offense that is bottom-10 material with Brett Hundley and just lost their leading RB Aaron Jones for 3-6 weeks and Ty Montgomery is banged up with a ribs injury. Even Hundley has a bad harmstring. Green Bay will struggle to run efficiently which sets up difficult passing situations for Hundley all game long. The Ravens secondary can just sit back and win their matchups against an average receiving corps. Mike McCarthy has shown us in 3 games that he can’t work out a game plan that maximizes the potential of his offense and surprises opposing defenses. He is completely dependent on Aaron Rodgers. I am seeing bad production and 2-3 turnovers by the Pack offense. This is a dream matchup for Baltimore. Yes the Ravens offense has struggled, however they are getting healthier and don’t face a good defense at Lambeau. Danny Woodhead comes back who is a nice addition in the short passing game, just for instance. Ravens have a lot of passes for negative yardage where Woodhead will help. Another key is that there are around 20 miles of winds expected on Sunday, so the game is going to be run-heavy and that’s where you love having the Ravens defense on your ticket. If their defense plays like they are supposed to do, the offense is going to have an easy job. The Ravens cannot afford to lose this game and I don’t believe they will. Ravens -2 |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
The Falcons are due. The only thing that’s holding them back is regression from last season as they are just unlucky (the Julio TD drop last week?). They are putting up top-6 metrics on offense and are due for a big win. They come off a divisional loss in their third straight road game at Carolina to play a Cowboys team that has the Eagles on deck and is without Ezekiel Elliott. I reduce 2 points for the Cowboys without Elliott and it could be even more because he is so valuable in my opinion. The Cowboys defense looked great vs the Chiefs, but the Chiefs played fluky on offense, Alex Smith is reverting to the conservative guy who doesn’t climb the pocket. Falcons should move the ball at will here, especially on the ground and I don’t think the Boys have enough firepower without Zeke to match that. Atlanta Falcons -3 |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Steelers -10 v. Colts | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 23 m | Show |
There's not a lot to dive into with this matchup, for me this one is a no-brainer. This is a men vs boys kind of game and I expect the Steelers to trash the Colts. Indy is like Arizona, they won close vs bad teams and got blown out by the better teams. Without Hooker and Davis, this secondary will get torched and they also can’t stop the run or challenge that OL in the trenches. It also doesn’t help them that the Steelers play very good on D and also are bringing back Martavis Bryant. This is blowout city to me, 38-13 kind of game. Pittsburgh Steelers -10 |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.