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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-24-19 | White Sox v. Red Sox -160 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Lucas Giolito (10-2, 2.74 ERA) has been a bright spot for the White Sox this year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The Red Sox, who just lost two of three to the lowly Jays, counter with southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (8-4. 4.71). Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four lifetime match ups vs. Chicago, while Giolito is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his career vs. the Red Sox. Key Trends: - Chicago is just 6-9 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Boston is 9-4 as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range this year. The verdict: After their shoddy and disinterested performance vs. Toronto over the weekend, I expect the Red Sox to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price with confidence! |
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06-24-19 | Royals v. Indians -147 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. After a slow start to the 2019 campaign, the Tribe is rolling and I expect that momentum to carry over here in the opener of this three-game series. Cleveland is now seven games over .500 after posting a three-game sweep in two of its past three series. Cleveland won’t be taking anything for granted here either after KC posted a three-game sweep back on April 12th-14th. And that’s bade news for struggling Royals’ starter Brad Keller (3-9, 4.45 ERA), who is 0-4 over his past five starts, most recently getting shelled for seven runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the M’s on Wednesday. Cleveland counters with Adam Plutko (3-1, 4.55), who gave up two runs in a no-decision to the Rangers on Wednesday. Key Trends: - Kansas City is just 10-24 as a road dog this season. - The Royals are only 18-36 vs. right-handed starters this year. - Cleveland is 10-5 at home this year as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: I expect the home side to continue its hot run this favorable match up. Lay the price! |
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06-23-19 | Mets v. Cubs -114 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I like the Cubs to respond in the finale. The Mets go with Jacob deGrom (4-6, 3.26 ERA), while the home side counters with Cole Hamels (6-2, 2.85.) deGrom is an unremarkable 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in seven career starts vs. Chicago, but he’s 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts at Wrigley Field. Chicago is still 26-14 at home this season. Hamels gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the White Sox most recently. Key Trends: - New York is just 12-20 (-11.9 units) in its last 32 after scoring nine or more runs. - Chicago is 12-3 (+8.7 units) this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: I expect the hungry home side to come out aggressive and for deGrom’s struggles at Wrigley to continue. Lay the short price! |
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06-23-19 | Astros -117 v. Yankees | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Houston Astros. All good things must come to an end. The Yanks have won eight straight and I think they’ll finally take a step back here vs. the desperate Astros, who enter the finale of this four-game series on the other end of the spectrum after seven straight losses. The home side is complacent and the visitors are definitely hungry. I give a big nod to Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.59 ERA) over JA Happ (7-3, 4.59) as well. Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in last six vs. the Yankees. Happ is 5-2 with a 3.46 ERA in nine career starts vs. Houston. Key Trends: - Houston is 16-6 (+6.7 units) this season vs. southpaws. The verdict: It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Happ or the Yankees right now, I just think that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here vs. Verlander and this desperate Astros team. All things considered, a great price! |
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06-23-19 | Padres -135 v. Pirates | 10-11 | Loss | -135 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. I like the Padres to salvage the finale of this three-game series after dropping the first two. The Friars had won four straight before heading into this series and I think the Pirates have a predictable letdown here. The visitors turn to Joey Lucchesi (6-4, 3.74 ERA) to break the slide and he’ll be opposed by Steven Brault (3-1, 4.40.) Lucchesi enters on top form, having gone at least six innings in five of his past six starts (most recently went seven shutout innings in a 2-0 win over the Brewers.) Lucchesi is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two career outings vs. Pittsburgh. Brault has a 1.25 ERA over his past four starts, but note that he owns a poor 5.68 ERA in four career relief appearances vs. San Diego. Key Trends: - The Padres are still a profitable 16-11 (+6 units) in all “day” games this year. - The Pirates are just 7-11 vs. southpaws this season. The verdict: San Diego comes in focused and hungry. Pittsburgh comes in flat and content. This one has “blowout” written all over it, so lay the price with confidence! |
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06-22-19 | White Sox v. Rangers -183 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Texas Rangers. I think the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price, as I’m expecting a decisive beatdown from start to finish in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Odrisamer Despaigne (0-2, 8.71 ERA), while the Rangers go with Lance Lynn (8-4, 4.16.) Lynn is 6-2 with a 3.17 ERA over his last ten starts, most recently allowing one run with nine K’s and zero walks over seven innings in a win over the Tribe on Monday. Note as well that in seven career outings vs. Chicago he’s 3-1 with a tiny 2.49 ERA. The Rangers will be out to avenge last night’s 5-4, ten inning loss as well. Despaigne most recently allowed seven runs over four innings in a loss to the Yankees. Key Trends: - The White Sox just 4-7 this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range. - The Rangers are 11-5 as a home favorite. The verdict: Look for Lynn to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price with confidence! |
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06-22-19 | Padres -115 v. Pirates | 3-6 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. The Padres have lost four straight in this series after last night’s series opening 2-1 loss. Enough is enough! I like the Friars to finally bounce back here and find a way to get the job done on Saturday afternoon. The Padres turn to Chris Paddack (4-4, 3.15 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Archer (3-6, 5.85). Since coming off the IL in May Archer has gone a terrible 2-4 with a 6.93 ERA over seven starts (note that Archer has been clobbered for 15 homers over his past nine trips to the hill.) Paddack has cooled off considerably since his hot start to the 2019 campaign, but I still give him the nod over his “gas can” counterpart. Key Trends: - Note that SD is 15-9 (+7 units) this season after scoring two runs or less in its previous outing - Pittsburgh is just 8-13 (-2.3 units) after scoring two runs or less. Look for the revenge minded visiting side to get the job done here. The verdict: I look for the revenge minded visiting side to stop the slide in this series; all things considered, this is a great price! |
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06-22-19 | Mets v. Cubs -140 | 10-2 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. The Mets came from behind to steal last night’s game, but I think the home side will bounce back on Saturday afternoon. New York’s Zach Wheeler (5-5, 4.94 ERA) goes up against Chicago’s Jose Quintana (4-6, 3.87). Wheeler enters having lost two straight, most recently getting shelled for five runs over six innings vs. the Braves (note that Wheeler has now allowed 14 runs in that span.) Quintana is 0-5 with a 4.30 ERA since his last victory in early May, but he looked decent in his last outing vs. the high-powered Dodgers, allowing two runs over six innings. Finally note that Wheeler is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four career starts vs. the Cubs, while Quintana is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts vs. the Mets. Key Trends: - New York is just 2-12 (-9 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Chicago is 12-2 (+10 units) this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: I love Quintana to out duel his clearly struggling counterpart here and I look for the Cubs to answer after yesterday’s setback. Lay the price! |
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06-21-19 | Orioles v. Mariners -163 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Seattle Mariners. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Veteran hurler Mike Leake. The M’s veteran is 6-6 with a 4.14 ERA this year, but he enters on top form having posted four straight quality starts, with three victories in that span. Leake is auditioning for a future new team, as he’ll be moved before the trade deadline. Whoever the Orioles start today, Leake is my “key angle” for this particular contest. Key Trends: - Baltimore is just 12-25 on the road. - Seattle is still 86-66 the L2 years in all games as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Look for Leake to continue his progression with another big performance in front of the home town crowd. Lay the short price! |
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06-21-19 | Twins v. Royals +141 | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Kansas City Royals. Yes the Twins have been a big surprise this year, but the Royals won’t be rolling over here after last night’s 4-1 win. I think the home side now carries that momentum/confidence over into this one. The Twins’ Martin Perez (7-3, 4.09 ERA) has had success vs. the Royals in the past, but he enters having gone four straight starts without a victory. The home side counters with Jakob Junis (4-6, 5.33) and he’ll be looking to keep the good times rolling for KC, which enters having won four of its last five, including two in a row over Minnesota, which has lost four of its last five. The verdict: These teams are moving in opposite directions now and I look for those trends to continue on Friday night. Play on the Royals! |
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06-20-19 | Rays v. A's +100 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Oakland A’s. The Rays have lost seven of nine and despite sending Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.37 ERA) to the hill, I believe their slide continues here vs. talented A’s starter Frankie Montas (9-2, 2.85.) Note that Oakland has won six of its last eight. Morton’s 21-game unbeaten streak is now history as well after falling 5-3 to the Angels last Saturday. Montas comes in on top form, having gone 5-0 with a 2.77 ERA over his past eight starts. Key Trends: - Tampa is just 4-6 in its last ten after a loss by eight runs or more. - Oakland is 11-6 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I think Morton takes another step back here; all things considered a great price on the hungry home side! |
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06-20-19 | Twins -170 v. Royals | 1-4 | Loss | -170 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. The Twins’ Jake Odorizzi (10-2, 2.24 ERA) is on fire this year and I think he carries that positive momentum over into this favorable road matchup. Glenn Sparkman (1-3, 4.01) gets the nod for the Royals. The Twins though have won 11 consecutive games started by Odorrizzi and while he’s struggled against the Royals in the past, clearly that was then and this is now. Sparkman is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in five career outings vs. the Twins. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 12-2 this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher. - Kansas City is just 8-16 as a home underdog this season. The verdict: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, I think that this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay the price with confidence! |
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06-20-19 | Reds v. Brewers -135 | 7-1 | Loss | -135 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. I played on the Reds yesterday in their upset win at home over the Astros. I also played against Milwaukee in its upset loss to the Padres. I believe the Reds though, who have now won four straight, will take a step back here vs. this suddenly desperate Brewers team which has lost three straight and four of its last five. Tanner Roark (4-6, 3.63 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he’s 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA over his past three outings. The hungry home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (0-1, 10.29), who makes his third start of the year. These pitchers are a “wash,” but I feel the difference comes in the number/trends as well. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is still just 7-15 this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Milwaukee is still 13-7 at home this year as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I think the “hungry” home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. Lay it! |
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06-20-19 | Angels -150 v. Blue Jays | 5-7 | Loss | -150 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. With a chance to sweep this four-game series, I look for the streaking Angels to lay the hammer down here. The visitors go with Jose Suarez (2-1, 4.50 ERA), while the home side goes with Clayton Richard (0-3, 7.52). Mike Trout had two home runs in yesterday’s 11-6 victory and he now has 11 over his last 19 games (Trout has a career .631 slugging average at the Rogers Centre.) The verdict: I think Suarez, who earned a win on the road in Tampa last time out, is the correct call in this matchup. Richard has been a complete “gas can,” which clearly doesn’t bode well facing the red hot Trout and company. I’m banking on another blowout, lay the price with confidence! |
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06-19-19 | Giants +213 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Francisco Giants. I had a play on the Dodgers on the “run line” last night, but I think the Giants and Drew Pomeranz offer great value at this price to steal this one. Pomeranz (2-6, 6.43 ERA) faced the Dodgers on June 7th and he went five scoreless, holding them to just three hits. San Francisco went on to win that game 2-1. He’ll be opposed by LA’s Rich Hill (4-1, 2.60) who gave up three runs off seven hits in a 5-3 win over the Cubs last Friday. Key Trends: - LA may have a whopping 16.5 game lead over San Francisco in the NL West standings, but note that the Dodgers are just 6-5 in this season series thus far. The verdict: I think Pomeranz continues his steady overall progression with another strong performance vs. LA; play on the Giants! |
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06-19-19 | Rays -119 v. Yankees | 1-12 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. I think Blake Snell (4-5, 3.70 ERA) will help the Rays avoid the three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees. New York won the first game 3-0, and then Tuesday’s contest 6-3. Tampa won’t be lacking for motivation here as it’s lost six of its last eight. Snell is just 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA over his past seven starts, but note that he’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of those outings. New York goes with CC Sabathia (3-4, 4.42) who is 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA since his last victory in mid May. Key Trends: - Tampa is 14-7 as a -125 or higher road favorite this season already. - The Yanks are a sub-par 7-9 (-6.4 units) vs. southpaws this year. The verdict: Look for the hungry Rays to jump on Sabathia early and expect Snell to go deep. Lay the short price! |
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06-18-19 | Mets -114 v. Braves | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. Two pitchers who won’t be lacking for motivation collide in this one Tuesday night. Jacob deGrom (3-6, 3.38 ERA) gets the nod for the Mets and he’ll be opposed by the Braves’ Julio Teheran (5-4, 2.92). deGrom has a 2.29 ERA over his last three starts and over 116 career innings vs. the Braves he has a minuscule 1.86 ERA. Teheran has had success vs. the Mets in the past and he’s in fine form currently, but the numbers point to a letdown here for the surging home side. Key Trends: - The Mets are 11-4 (+6.6 units) already this year after having lost five or six of their last seven games. - The Braves are 5-8 in their last 13 off a win by eight runs or more vs. a division rival. The verdict: I think the “hungrier” team rallies behind its ace. Great value on deGrom and the Mets on Tuesday night! |
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06-17-19 | Astros v. Reds -114 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Cincinnati Reds. This is an interesting interleague series and an interesting head-to-head matchup on the mound in the opener. The Astros’ Wade Miley (6-3, 3.14 ERA) will be opposed by the Reds’ Luis Castillo (6-1, 2.20). Houston has been getting production at the plate of late despite key injuries to its line-up. Miley has been “on point” of late as well, most recently going six scoreless vs. the Orioles on Monday. The Reds won’t be lacking for motivation here after losing six of their last nine. Cincinnati though has hope with Castillo on the hill; he most recently allowed one run over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Indians. The verdict: I’m throwing the trends out the window on this play. I think Miley is going to struggle in this NL format and I believe Castillo takes advantage of this Astros line-up that’s over-achieving at the plate. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Reds! |
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06-16-19 | Cubs +188 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Cubs. Clearly that’s not many negative things you can say about Hyun Jin Ryu. Ryu (9-1, 1.60 ERA) has arguably been the best pitcher in the World over the last year and a half. I simply think that Jose Quintana (4-6, 3.89) is going to be able to match patch for him inning for inning. And in my opinion, that swings the value in favor of the hungry underdog, which I expect to build off last night’s come from behind victory. The verdict: All good things must come to an end. I think that the Cubs offer great value to steal this Sunday nighter. Play on Chicago! |
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06-16-19 | Brewers -133 v. Giants | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Giants have won four straight and they’re 5-2 on their current home stand following last night’s come from behind 8-7 win in which they uncharacteristically belted out 15 hits. Can anyone say letdown spot? I think the Giants do indeed come back down to Earth here facing the Brewers’ Chase Anderson (3-1, 3.80 ERA). Note that Anderson is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts at San Francisco as well. The home side counters with Jeff Samardizja (3-5, 3.72) who is just 1-4 over his last five starts. Note that The Shark is only 3-6 with a 4.58 ERA in 26 career appearances vs. Milwaukee. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is still 16-8 (+7.6 units) this year in all day games. - San Francisco is just 11-18 (-5.4 units) this season in all day contests. The verdict: I like the hard-hitting Brewers to bounce back and I expect the Giants to suffer a predictable letdown. Lay the price! |
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06-16-19 | Padres v. Rockies -135 | 14-13 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. This is the finale of a four-game series. Both teams go with rookie pitchers tonight. The home side goes with Peter Lambert (2-0, 1.50 ERA), while the visitors go with Nick Margevicius (2-6, 5.02). Colorado bounced back from a 16-12 loss on Friday, for a convincing 14-8 win yesterday and I believe this is a matchup which favors the home side. Lambert has looked sharp in a starters role, facing the Cubs twice and holding them to one run over seven innings in the first matchup and then one run over five frames on Tuesday. Key Trends: - San Diego is still just 6-13 (-3.7 units) this season as an underdog on the +125 to +175 range. - The Rockies are 19-7 (+10.1 units) this year as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: I think Margevicius struggles in this difficult road venue. All things considered, a great price on the home side. Lay the short price! |
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06-16-19 | Cardinals -113 v. Mets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis has taken two of three, but the Mets bounce back in yesterday’s 8-7 win. I like St. Louis to bounce back in the finale though and secure the series. The visitors go with Dakota Hudson (5-3, 3.47 ERA), while the home side counters with Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.68). Both pitchers have been sharp of late, but note that the over-achieving Vargas is just 1-2 with a 4.99 ERA in six career appearances vs. St. Louis, while Hudson won his lone start vs. the Mets on April 21st, allowing three runs over six innings. Key Trends: - St. Louis is a fantastic 8-2 (+5.8 units) still this season on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - The Mets are just 10-13 (-4.2 units) in all “day” games this year. The verdict: I think Vargas takes a step back against an opponent he’s had plenty of difficulties with in the past. Lay the short price! |
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06-16-19 | Pirates v. Marlins +100 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Marlins. After breaking their seven-game losing streak with an 11-0 win on Friday, the Pirates predictably came back down to Earth on Saturday and fell 4-3. I think the Marlins now find a way to get the job done in the series finale. Chris Archer (3-6, 5.73 ERA) gets the nod for the Bucs, while the Fish hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara (3-6, 3.67). Archer has been terrible on the road, going 0-3 with an 8.71 ERA in four starts. Alcantara is 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts and 2-4 with a 3.25 ERA in seven starts at home. The verdict: Archer’s been terrible on the road and it’s hard to imagine him suddenly “flipping a switch” here. Alcantara on the other hand has pitched much better than what his win/loss record would indicate. All things considered, I believe this is fantastic line value on the superior pitcher. Play on the Fish! |
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06-15-19 | Phillies +105 v. Braves | Top | 6-5 | Win | 105 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Great spot bet. Great value. All on Philadelphia, as Atlanta is making Sean Newcomb (1-0, 2.59 ERA) make his first start since April 13th. This is a major factor working in favor of Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.58) who is 8-3 with a 2.05 ERA in 13 career starts vs. Atlanta. Key Trends: - The Phillies are 9-1 (+7.5 units) this year after allowing nine or more runs. - The Braves are just 5-7 (-3.7 units) this season after allowing eight or more runs. The verdict: In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Phillies! |
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06-14-19 | Brewers -140 v. Giants | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Brewers. Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 7.16 ERA) comes in off an admittedly great start, going five scoreless in a victory over the Dodgers (going head-to-head with Kershaw!) But Pomeranz owns a terrible 8.00 ERA in two career starts vs. the Brewers. Zack Davies (7-0, 2.41) comes in off a no-decision, but he owns a sharp 1.64 ERA vs. the Giants over two career starts. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is 17-9 vs. teams with losing records this year. - San Francisco is only 9-14 as a home dog this season. The verdict: The Brewers lead the NL in dingers, while the Giants are dead last in that category. All things considered, I feel that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the Brewers! |
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06-14-19 | Blue Jays +229 v. Astros | 2-15 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 44 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. I think the home side is over-priced here considering the injury list to its sluggers (Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Aledmys Diaz, George Springer and Max Stassi all out for the Astros.) The home side goes with Gerrit Cole (5-5, 3.72 ERA) who has been sharp overall this year, but who I believe is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The visitors counter with Aaron Sanchez (3-7, 4.25), who is 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA in five appearances vs. Houston. The verdict: Toronto rookie right-fielder Cavan Biggio recorded his first career multi home run game Thursday in his team’s 12-3 win at Baltimore and I believe he and his team carry that momentum over here vs. his father’s former club. Upset in the making here! |
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06-14-19 | Pirates v. Marlins -113 | 11-0 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Marlins. This is the opener of a three-game set between cellar dwellers. The Marlins broke a six-game slide with a win over St. Louis last time out. Pittsburgh enters having lost seven straight (overall the Pirates are just 6-18 in their last 24.) The visitors hand the ball to Steven Brault (2-1, 5.05 ERA) who has looked decent of late by posting a 1.72 ERA over his last three starts. The home side counters with Trevor Richards (3-6, 3.31) who is 3-1 with a 1.74 ERA over his last five starts and who owns a solid 3.17 ERA in 20 career starts at home. Key Trends: - Pirates are 0-7 in their last seven on the road. - The Fish are 5-2 in their last seven home games vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: The Marlins are also 4-1 in Richards’ last five starts. All things considered, I believe this is great line value on the home side! |
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06-12-19 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -139 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -139 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. This is the rubber match of a three-game set and I think the home side will build off yesterday’s 7-4 victory. Scott Kingery had two home runs yesterday for Philadelphia and he’s now hitting .324 on the season with ten doubles, one triple, seven homers and 18 RBI’s. The home side hands the ball to Zach Eflin (6-5, 2.88 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Reds last Friday. In two career starts vs. the D-Backs, Eflin owns a respectable 3.86 ERA. The D-Backs had won five in a row before yesterday’s setback and I thick they’re primed for another letdown here as well. The visitors go with Merrill Kelly (6-6, 4.12) who has looked decent of late, but who I think is simply in the wrong lace at the wrong time here. Key Trends: - Arizona is just 14-18 (-2.7 units) this year following a loss. - Philadelphia is 23-11 as a favorite at home. - The Phillies are 20-15 in their last 35 following a victory. The verdict: I like Eflin to continue his strong run at home and to help his team score the series victory. Lay the short price! |
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06-11-19 | Padres -145 v. Giants | 5-6 | Loss | -145 | 32 h 44 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Padres. Chris Paddack (4-4, 2.97 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and while he hasn’t been at his best over his last two starts, I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Tyler Beede (0-2, 8.15) is coming off a decent outing, giving up one run over six innings in a 3-1 win over the Fish on May 30th, but I still think he’s in over his head here. Key Trends: - San Diego is 9-6 (+3 units) already this year after two or more consecutive losses. - San Francisco is only 11-20 at home. - The Giants are a poor 19-25 vs. right-handed starters. The verdict: Expect Paddack to go deep and for the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night! |
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06-11-19 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +102 | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. Toronto has lost 14 of its last 17 and it’s hitting just .161 with RISP over its last 112 at bats. Toronto hands the ball to Trent Thorton (1-4, 4.73 ERA), who will be opposed by Baltimore’s John Means (5-4, 2.67.) Means has been “on fire” for a while now and I expect him to carry that momentum over here in this favorable spot (note that Means is 4-3 with a 2.77 ERA over his last nine starts.) Key Trends: - Toronto is a terrible 6-12 vs. the division. - The Blue Jays are only 11-20 on the road. - The Orioles are 44-30 (+7.1 unit) in their last 77 home games with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Considering the form of these starters and line-ups, I think that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Orioles! |
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06-09-19 | Diamondbacks -142 v. Blue Jays | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Toronto won two of three over the Yanks earlier in the week, but it’s dropped the first two games of this interleague contest and I think that the D-Backs lay the hammer down in the finale as well. Arizona has won 8-2 and 6-0 so far and I predict another lop-sided destruction here as well. Robbie Ray (4-3, 3.62 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Clayton Richard (0-1, 3.55.) Ray has lost two straight, despite allowing only three runs over seven innings to the Dodgers on Monday. Ray is also 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last five road starts. Richard faced Arizona three times last year and he’d go 0-1 with a 6.60 ERA. Key Trends: - Arizona is already 11-7 (+4 units) this year after a win by four runs or more. - Toronto is a terrible 1-5 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range already this season. The verdict: I think Ray has a big advantage in this match-up and I like the D-Backs to carry over their recent momentum at the plate in this favorable matchup. Lay the short price! |
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06-08-19 | Nationals -144 v. Padres | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Max Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA) is 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA in ten starts vs. the Friars. Eric Lauer (5-4, 4.18) is faced the Nats twice (both no decisions) and has posted a tiny 2.31 ERA. But after dropping the first two games of this series, I think Washington responds finally in this important contest. And the numbers/trends support that! Key Trends: - Washington is 49-31 (+9 units) after two or more consecutive losses. - San Diego is still 47-84 (-15.5 units) the L2 years as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Lauer’s been great of late, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Lay the reasonable mid-sized price! |
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06-08-19 | Cardinals +100 v. Cubs | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals. The Cards came into this series sitting 2.5 games back of the Cubs. The Cards lost yesterday’s opener 3-1, but I think they’ll bounce back on Saturday night. The home side goes with the volatile Jon Lester (4-4, 3.32 ERA), while the visitors go with Jack Flaherty (4-3, 3.76.) Flaherty may be only 1-2 in six games vs. the Cubs, but he sports a very respectable 3.70 ERA in those contests. Yes Lester is 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA in 18 career starts vs. St. Louis, but I think he’ll have a hard time following in Cole Hamel’s footsteps. Key Trends: - St. Louis is still 6-1 (+5. units) this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - The Cardinals are already 5-1 (+4.1 units) this year after scoring four runs or less in three straight games (and 40-15 in the same position over the L2 years.) - Chicago is a money-burning 11-11 (-2.2 units) this season vs. the division. The verdict: I think the revenge minded Cardinals bounce back in this important game! |
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06-08-19 | Dodgers -200 v. Giants | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the LA Dodgers. The Giants won 2-1 as a massive underdog last night, but I think LA bounces back in this favorable pitching match-up on Saturday night. The home side goes with Jeff Samardzija (3-4, 3.61 ERA) who had a decent start to open June after a terrible May. The Shark has a 1-4, 3.59 ERA lifetime record vs. the Dodgers over nine appearances. Rich Hill (2-1, 2.25) gets the nod for the visitors and he enters off a gem, limiting the Phillies to no runs over seven innings with nine K’s on Sunday (note that Hill is 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA in 14 career starts against San Francisco as well.) Key Trends: - LA is 13-7 (+2.2 units) this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - San Francisco is just 7-12 (-2.9 units) this year as a home underdog. - The Giants are a poor 7-12 vs. southpaws this season. The verdict: Look for Hill to easily out duel the volatile Samardzija and lay the price with confidence! |
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06-07-19 | Rockies +178 v. Mets | 5-1 | Win | 178 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on on the Colorado Rockies. I’ve made a play on the Mets in each of their last two games (both wins,) but I think the home side takes a step back here despite sending its ace to the hill. Jacob deGrom (3-5, 3.49 ERA) goes for the home side, while the visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (4-4, 5.33.) Note though that New York is just 9-16 this year vs. clubs with winning records. Colorado comes in on top form. The Rockies opened the year by going 3-12, but Colorado has since gone 29-17, including 13-11 vs. clubs with a record of .500 or better. Key Trends: - Colorado is 15-11 (+17.6 units) in its last 26 as a road underdog in the +175 to +250 range. - New York is 13-16 (-5.6 units) this season following a victory. The verdict: Both teams enter of victories. Each starter has enjoyed success vs. their opponent today, but I think the above trends swing the value in favor of the surging visiting side. Play on the Rockies! |
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06-06-19 | Orioles v. Rangers -160 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Texas Rangers. These teams have split the first two games of this three game set, but I think the home side is worth the price of admission in the finale. Texas carries its momentum over from last night’s 2-1, 12-inning victory. Texas has now won six of its last eight. The home side goes with Arial Jurado (2-2, 2.43 ERA) who has performed well of late and who won his only start vs. the O’s, giving up two runs over five frames. The visitors go with David Hess (1-7, 7.36) who got shelled for seven runs over four innings in his last start vs. the toothless Giants. Key Trends: - Baltimore is just 4-18 vs. teams with winning records. - Texas is now 9-3 (+5.2 units) this season as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: I like Jurado to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price! |
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06-06-19 | Marlins +175 v. Brewers | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Marlins. Miami is rolling and I look for it to continue that momentum this afternoon. The Fish aim for the three game sweep today after yesterday’s 8-3 victory. The Marlins are 13-5 over their last 18. Miami is red hot at the plate, outscoring the Brewers 24-3 over the first two games. I find no reason for that trend not to continue today. The visitors go with Caleb Smith (3-3, 3.10 ERA), who already has 80 K’s over 61 frames of work this year. The home side goes with Freddy Peralta (2-2, 5.68), who’s last three appearances have been in relief. Key Trends: - Miami is now 9-8 (+9.7 units) this season as an underdog in the +175 to +200 range. - Milwaukee is now just 3-5 in its last eight vs. southpaws. The verdict: I think Smith will out duel Peralta, who was called into action in an over night change for Brandon Woodruff and I expect the Marlins hot play at the plate to carry over as well. Great value on Miami! |
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06-06-19 | Reds v. Cardinals -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Last night’s home starter Dakota Hudson will make this Thursday afternoon start. Hudson (4-3, 3.94 ERA) went 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA in six starts in May. Note that over Hudson’s last three outings he’s pitched at least six frames and given up two runs or fewer. Anthony DeSclafani (2-3, 4.97) was scheduled to start last night as well for the Reds, but he’ll also get pushed over. Note that he was a poor 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in the month of May. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 5-11 (-4.3 units) this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - The Cardinals are 11-3 (+6.8 units) this year with a home money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Recent form displayed by these starters makes the Cardinals well worth the price of admission this afternoon! |
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06-06-19 | Giants v. Mets -140 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. I had a play on the Mets last night and I think they’ll lay the hammer down here as well. New York will try to win this series by handing the ball to Zack Wheeler (5-3, 4.68 ERA), while the visitors go with Shaun Anderson. Jason Vargas worked a complete game in last night’s 7-0 victory, giving the Mets’ bullpen a much-needed break. This is an important angle working in favor of the home side this afternoon. Key Trends: - San Francisco is now just 9-13 as a road underdog. - New York is now 6-3 as a home favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I like Wheeler to take a page out of Vargas’s book and as mentioned off the top, the Mets bullpen comes in fresh here. Lay the price! |
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06-05-19 | Giants v. Mets -126 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the New York Mets. I had a play on the Mets yesterday and while that pick came up short, I think the home side bounces back on Wednesday. After three-straight victories I believe the Giants have a predictable letdown here. The visitors go with Tyler Beede (0-1, 7.82 ERA), while the home side goes with Jason Vargas (1-3, 4.46.) This is Beede’s seventh major league appearance and fifth start. Vargas though comes in under the radar in my opinion. Note that he most recently allowed one run over seven innings in an unfortunate 2-0 loss to the Dodgers (and also note that he’s 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA in five career starts vs. San Francisco.) Key Trends: - San Francisco is still just 4-9 (-4.1 units) as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - New York is 15-9 at home this year. - The Mets are already 9-3 this season after having lost five or six of their last seven games. The verdict: I think Vargas is the correct call in this matchup. Lay the short price! |
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06-04-19 | Marlins v. Brewers -168 | 16-0 | Loss | -168 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Fish have been playing better of late, but I think they’ll come up short here in this clear mismatch on the mound. Marlins’ starter Pablo Lopez (3-5, 4.99 ERA) is the biggest Jekyll and Hyde hurler in the game, posting a 1.84 ERA in five starts at home, compared to an atrocious 8.26 ERA in six road starts. Milwaukee counters with Chase Anderson (3-0, 3.31 ERA) who is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts vs. Miami. Key Trends: - Miami is just 10-17 vs. teams with winning records. - Milwaukee is already 3-0 this year as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: Based upon Lopez’s horrible road record, I think Anderson could/should in fact be a much bigger/larger fav in this particular matchup. Lay it! |
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06-04-19 | Giants v. Mets -133 | 9-3 | Loss | -133 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. The Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (3-5, 4.01 ERA) goes up against the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard (3-4, 4.90) in this one. Both teams have been terrible so far this season. But after earning just their second series win in their last nine tries on Sunday by beating Baltimore, I think the Giants have a predictable letdown here. I think the starters are a “wash,” but the difference is in the numbers/trends. Key Trends: - As note that San Francisco is just 10-21 (-9.1 units) as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range. - The Giants are just 7-16 (-8.4 units) this year after a victory. - New York is 5-2 as a home favorite in the -100 to -150 range. - The Mets are 4-1 in their last five when playing with a day off. The verdict: I think the hungry home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the short price! |
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06-04-19 | Twins v. Indians -128 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. The Twins are 40-18 on the year and at some point, they’re going to come crashing back down to Earth. I think that slide begins tonight. The hosts won’t be lacking for motivation either after dropping ten of their past 14. The visitors go with Devin Smeltzer (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who gave up three hits while striking out seven without walking a batter over six scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Brewers in his MLB debut last Tuesday. Like the Twins, I think there’s only one way Smeltzer’s performance can go after that gem. The Tribe go with Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.67) who is 2-0 over his last three starts and who owns a 1-0, 4.58 ERA record in four career appearances vs. the Twins. Key Trends: - Minnesota 51-57 the L2 years after playing four or more straight road contests. - Cleveland is already 9-5 (+4.3 units) after having lost three of its last four games this season. The verdict: I like Bieber to bounce back at home and I look for Smeltzer to take a big step back. Lay this very reasonable price! |
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06-04-19 | Rays v. Tigers +230 | 6-9 | Win | 230 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Detroit Tigers. The Rays are over-priced here in my opinion. Yes Blake Snell (3-4, 3.06 ERA) is better than Ryan Carpenter (0-2, 7.58), but Tampa enters having lost three straight. Snell has an 0-1 record in two career starts vs. the Tigers. Carpenter comes in off his best start since being called up from Triple-A, allowing two runs over six innings vs. the Orioles. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay is 40-44 (-7.4 units) the L2 years after a loss by two runs or less. - The Tigers are already 5-3 (+4.1 units) this season after playing six or more consecutive road games. The verdict: After playing nine straight on the road, I think the hungry Tigers off great value to steal Game 1 of this series from the over-priced visiting side. Play on Detroit! |
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06-04-19 | Braves -151 v. Pirates | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. Pittsburgh just played 27 games in 27 days. It then had Monday off. Now the Braves come to town and I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. The Braves’ Max Fried (7-3, 3.19 ERA) will be opposed by the Pirates’ Steven Brault (2-1, 5.87.) Brault’s been decent in a starters role early (1-0, 5.54), but over 19 career trips to the hill in the big leagues he’s gone a pedestrian 3-4 with an elevated 4.87 ERA. He comes off a decent outing vs. the Reds, but I think he’s in over his head here. Fried’s three start win streak came to an end after allowing four runs over six innings vs. the Nationals, but I think he settles down here again in this favorable position. Key Trends: - Atlanta is already 4-0 as a road favorite of -125 or higher this season. - The Braves are 10-5 (+4.1 units) vs. southpaws this year. - Pittsburgh is just 4-8 as a home underdog. The verdict: I think Brault struggles vs. this hard-hitting Braves’ line-up. At the same time, there’s no reason not to think that Fried can’t get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price! |
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06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres -170 | 9-3 | Loss | -170 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Padres. Tyler Richards (2-5, 3.82 ERA) and Matt Strahm (2-4, 3.21) are a “wash” here in my opinion. Miami’s been playing a lot better of late, but I think the Padres salvage the finale and take this three-game series vs. their lowly visitor. San Diego needs a win to prevent from falling below .500 at home and I expect it to make the most of this favorable match-up. Key Trends: - Miami is still only 9-19 as a +150 or higher underdog this year. - San Diego is 12-7 in its last 19 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. The verdict: Everything points to a lop-sided destruction in this one. Lay the price with confidence! |
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06-02-19 | Nationals -124 v. Reds | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. The visitors go with Max Scherzer (2-5, 3.26 ERA). The Nationals come in with plenty of momentum after winning six of their last eight, including yesterday’s 5-2 win. Note that Washington is 9-1 in its last ten at Great American Ball Park. Scherzer has been the victim of some back luck this year, but I still think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his counterpart (note that Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati.) The Reds go with Sonny Gray (2-4, 3.54) who has been sharp of late, but who owns a rather pedestrian 4.50 ERA in four career starts vs. the Nats. Key Trends: - Washington is 7-2 in its last nine road games following a win by two runs or more. - Cincinnati is just 3-6 (-2.4 units) this season as a home underdog. The verdict: Look for Scherzer to finally get the support he’s been lacking and expect the Nationals to keep the foot on the gas. At least for one more game! |
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06-01-19 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Jacob deGrom (3-5, 3.71 ERA) faces off against Zack Greinke (6-2, 2.78) on Saturday night and I think the home side is the correct call in this matchup. Greinke enters on fire, having posted a 2.14 ERA in the month of may, not giving up more than three earned runs in any of his past 11 outings. Note that deGrom owns a 5.33 ERA in five outing with Wilson Ramos working as catcher as well this season. Key Trends: - The Mets are just 6-8 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this season. - Arizona is already 9-5 (+4.7 units) this season after having lost four or five of its last six games. The verdict: Arizona comes in desperate to break a five-game slide after New York scored two runs in the eighth inning in Friday’s 5-4 series opening victory. I expect Greinke to outlast deGrom and I look for the D-Backs to finally “get off the schneid.” Lay the short price! |
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06-01-19 | Tigers +201 v. Braves | 5-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers lost the services of slugger Miguel Cabrera in yesterday’s 8-2 victory at Atlanta, but I think the visitors still offer great value to pull off the upset here vs. what I feel to be an overpriced Mike Soroka and Braves team on Saturday afternoon. The Tigers have won three straight. Detroit hands the ball to Daniel Norris (2-3, 4.18 ERA) who has thrown better than that his win/loss record would indicate, as he’s given up two earned runs in three of his last four outings. Soroka (5-1, 1.07) hasn’t given up more than one earned run in eight starts this year. He’s been unbelievable, but I think these numbers are unsustainable and I believe that regression is imminent. Key Trends: - Detroit is 7-5 (+7 units) in its last 12 as road dog in the +150 to +200 range. - The Braves are a poor 4-5 (-4.3 units) as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: I think Soroka finally suffers a letdown here and I expect the hungry Norris to take advantage. Play on the Tigers! |
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06-01-19 | Royals v. Rangers -157 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Texas Rangers. Lance Lynn (6-4, 4.66 ERA) has looked much better over the last month and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here vs. Homer Bailey and the Royals on Saturday afternoon. Bailey (4-5, 5.79) opposed Lynn last month and was rocked for six runs off eight hits and four walks over four innings of work. Lynn would give up one run off six hits with one walk over seven innings in the 16-1 victory. Key Trends: - Kansas City is 7-16 (-5.9 units) as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - Texas is 17-9 (+13.1 units) at home. The verdict: In this mismatch of epic proportions, I look for the Lynn and the Rangers to bounce back from yesterday’s upset loss and wrap up another series victory. Lay the price! |
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05-31-19 | Marlins v. Padres -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres. This is a big game and series for the Padres tonight with ten straight in front of the home town crowd. Miami is just 8-17 on the road this year. The Fish hand the ball to Caleb Smith (3-2, 3.05 ERA), while the home side counters with Joey Lucchesi (3-3, 4.25). Over his last three starts Lucchesi has posted a 2.84 ERA and tiny 0.684 WHIP. Smith has enjoyed success against the Friars in the past, but that was then and this is now. I think the Padres make the most of this favorable matchup. Key Trends: - Miami is just 10-24 this season following a loss. - San Diego is 13-6 (+7.8 units) this season after scoring two runs or less in its previous contest. The verdict: I think Miami’s inconsistencies on the road continues vs. the focused/determined Padres. Lay the price! |
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05-31-19 | Indians v. White Sox +156 | 1-6 | Win | 156 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the White Sox. There’s no taking the foot off the gas for the White Sox, who sit one game behind the Tribe for second place in the standings. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trent to continue here. Chicago has won six of its last 11, while the Indians have lost eight of 12. Also note that Indians’ starting pitcher Trevor Bauer is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA over his last five starts. White Sox’ starter Dylan Covey is 1-3 with a 4.24 ERA lifetime vs. Cleveland. Key Trends: - Note though that the Indians are just 6-7 (-4.2 units) already this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - The White Sox are already 5-3 (+3.6 units) after scoring eight or more runs this season. The verdict: I like the surging home side to continue its progression and take advantage of the scuffling Bauer. Play on the White Sox! |
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05-31-19 | Nationals v. Reds +117 | 3-9 | Win | 117 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Reds. Washington goes with Patrick Corbin (5-2, 2.85 ERA) to open this series. The Nationals have won five of six and have found their stroke at the plate, but I think they’re over-valued in this spot and I think that regression is ultimately imminent. Note that Corbin is 2-3 with a pedestrian 3.94 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Reds (he gave up a season-high six runs off eight hits over six innings in his most recent start vs. them back on May 30th, 2018.) The Reds go with Tyler Mahle (1-5, 4.15) who comes in off an outing to forget vs. the Cubs on Saturday (allowing three home runs.) Mahle’s had his difficulties vs. the Nationals as well, facing them once and giving up six runs over two innings. Key Trends: - Note though that Washington is just is still just 2-5 (-3.6 units) this year with a road money line in the -100 to -150 range. - Additionally note that Cincinnati is 5-1 (+5 units) this year when playing with a day off. The verdict: Both teams have been hitting the ball well, but the numbers and situation favor the under dog home side in my opinion. Play on the Reds! |
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05-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -145 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Colorado Rockies. Kyle Freeland (2-6, 6.71 ERA) has struggled for the Rockies this season, but Colorado has already taken the first three games of this series and I believe they carry over that momentum here. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to rookie right-hander Taylor Clarke (1-0), who I believe will be in over his head here in this difficult road ballpark. Note that Arizona is just 6 of 28 with runners in scoring position over the first three games of this series. Key Trends: - Arizona is just 4-7 (-2.8 units) this year in revenging a one run loss to an opponent. - Colorado is already 8-2 (+5 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I like the Rockies to keep the good times rolling in this favorable matchup. All things considered, a very fair price. Lay it! |
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05-30-19 | Cardinals +108 v. Phillies | 5-3 | Win | 108 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards come in desperate to salvage the finale of this three-game series. St. Louis was 19-10 over March and April, but it’s only 7-18 in May. The Cards’ Dakota Hudson (3-3, 4.22 ERA) comes in off a career-high seven innings tossed in a win over the surging Braves on Saturday. Overall he’d allow five hits and two runs. Hudson now has four quality starts in May and a 3.07 ERA over his last five games. Jerad Eickhoff (2-2, 3.86) posted a tiny 1.50 ERA over his first five starts, but he’s since posted a 9.75 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. The stage is set for the slight upset. Key Trends: - St. Louis is 12-8 in its last 20 when revenging for or more straight losses vs. an opponent. - The Phillies are a poor 7-9 (-3.3 units) already this season after two or more consecutive victories. The verdict: I like Hudson to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the desperate Cardinals! |
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05-29-19 | Cardinals v. Phillies -173 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Will Aaron Nola “look past” the Cardinals tonight? Bryce Harper had two doubles and two RBI’s in yesterday’s 4-3 series opening victory and I think Nola and the home side carry that momentum over here. Nola (5-0, 4.53 ERA), posted a terrible 6.84 ERA over his first five starts, but has since posted a 2.76 ERA over his last six trips to the hill. After the slow start to the 2019 campaign, clearly Nola can’t “look past” anyone at this point. Note that Nola is 3-2 with a 2.59 ERA in five lifetime meetings vs. the Cards. His counterpart his 22-year old Genesis Cabrera, who makes his major league debut tonight (was 2-3 with a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Memphis.) Key Trends: The Cards are just 4-10 this year as a road dog. - The Phillies are 18-9 as a home favorite. The verdict: All things considered, this line could/should be much larger in my professional opinion. I’m laying the price! |
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05-29-19 | Giants -114 v. Marlins | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Francisco Giants. After falling 11-3 in yesterday’s series opener, I like Madison Bumgarner (3-4, 4.10 ERA) and the visiting Giants to bounce back on Wednesday. Bumgarner is likely finally on the trading block and he’ll be out to audition today for clubs who are in the running at the midway point. Bumgarner most recently gave up two runs over six innings vs. the Braves on Thursday, generating a season-high 17 swinging strikes. The home side counters with Pablo Lopez (3-5, 5.40) who has pitched better at home than on the road, but who I think is still over-matched here. Key Trends: - San Francisco is already a perfect 3-0 (+3.4 units) this season after having lost six or seven of its last eight games. - Miami is just 9-21 (-10.2 units) as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range this year. The verdict: I think Bumgarner gets the better of Lopez. Lay the short price! |
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05-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds -150 | 7-2 | Loss | -150 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cincinnati Reds. The Pirates are going with Steven Brault out of the bullpen to start this one today because of necessity. Brault (1-1, 7.11 ERA) will have to face the red hot Reds’ slugger Derek Dietrich, who has four home runs over his last two games. The Reds won 11-6 yesterday and I believe they carry that momentum over here. Cincinnati hands the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 4.99), who comes in off an outing to forget, allowing four runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Cubs. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 42-64 (-12.6 units) the L2 years as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Cincinnati is 8-4 (+2.2 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Admittedly DeSclafani has struggled at times this year and while Brault has enjoyed success vs. the Reds in the past, this is a “different” Cincinnati team and I think he’ll struggle in this difficult situation. This one has blowout written all over it my opinion, lay the price with confidence! |
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05-28-19 | Cubs +122 v. Astros | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Cubs. I had a play on the Cubs yesterday and while that one came up short, I think that the visitors offer great value to bounce back here vs. the depleted Astros, who will once again be without the services of sluggers Jose Altuve, George Springer and Aledmys Diaz. Houston goes with a rookie right-hander as well in Corbin Martin (1-1, 4.97 ERA), who most recently allowed four runs off six hits over 3 1/3’s innings in a 4-0 loss to the White Sox. The Cubs counter with Jon Lester (3-3, 2.68) who has struggled over his last two starts, but who is 1-0 with a 4.10 ERA in two career starts vs. the Astros. Key Trends: - Chicago is 29-19 L2 years in interleague contests. - The Cubs are 24-12 in their last 36 vs. right-handed starters. The verdict: I think Lester settles down and takes advantage of this spot and I look for the “hungrier” visiting side to step up and avenge yesterday’s setback. Play on the Cubs! |
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05-28-19 | Royals +140 v. White Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Kansas City Royals. I’m calling for the upset here. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito (6-1, 2.77 ERA) is in arguably his best form ever as a pro. It’s hard to find too many faults with Giolito right now obviously, but the spot light is now on the hard-throwing southpaw. Brad Keller (3-5, 4.43) comes in under the radar, most recently allowing two runs over seven innings in an 8-2 win over the Cardinals in his last start for the Royals. Note as well that Keller is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six career starts vs. the White Sox. Giolito has fantastic numbers vs. the Royals as well (but who doesn’t!), but I think regression is imminent. The verdict: As far as underdog plays on the board Tuesday, I think this one offers the best overall value, with Keller being a clear “X-factor.” Play on the hungry Royals! |
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05-27-19 | Pirates +143 v. Reds | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. After winning two of three at Chicago over the weekend, I think the Reds take a step-back in this double-header Monday. Sonny Gray (1-4, 3.78 ERA) gets the call for the home side and he’s 0-3 with a 5.19 ERA lifetime vs. Pittsburgh. Mitch Keller makes his major league debut here after going 5-0 with a 3.45 ERA in Triple-A Indianapolis, striking out 56 batters over 47 innings of work. The Pirates won’t be lacking focus after losing five of their last six. Key Trends: - The Pirates are 7-2 in their last nine road games following a three games or more losing streak. - Cincinnati is just 2-6 in its last eight home games following a win by five or more runs. The verdict: I think Keller and the hungry visiting side are the correct call in Game 2! |
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05-27-19 | Indians v. Red Sox -177 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Neither of these starters instills much confidence. The Indians go with Jefry Rodriguez (1-4, 4.08 ERA), while the home side goes with Rick Porcello (3-4, 4.45). I had a play on Boston in its victory in Houston last night and I think it carries that momentum over here vs. a struggling Indians team which has lost six of seven, scoring more than three runs in just one of those contests. Key Trends: - Cleveland is just 2-5 in its last seven as a road dog of +150 or higher. - Boston is 13-8 as a home favorite this year. The verdict: I like Porcello to settle down at home. Lay the price with confidence! |
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05-27-19 | Cubs +165 v. Astros | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I had a play on the Red Sox in the finale of their three-game set vs. the Astros last night (after taking Houston in the second game of that series.) The Astros are banged up, as Aledmys Diaz, George Springer, Jose Altuve and Max Stassi are all on the IL. I think the door is wide open for the hungry Cubs and crafty veteran hurler Cole Hamels (4-0, 3.38 ERA), who is 8-6 with a 3.99 ERA in 20 career starts vs. Houston. Key Trends: - Chicago is 15-8 in May. - The Cubs are 29-18 L2 years in all interleague contests. The verdict: Houston’s Gerritt Cole has historically had a lot of success vs. Chicago, but note that he’s coming off back to back crummy outings. This is a great situational play on the hungry visiting side. Cubs win, cubs win, cubs win! |
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05-26-19 | Red Sox +178 v. Astros | 4-1 | Win | 178 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. I had a play on Houston yesterday, part of my winning five-game MLB report. But I think that Astros ace Justin Verlander (8-1, 2.24 ERA) finally has a letdown here. He struck out a season high 12 batters last time out. Verlander is 5-5 with a 2.89 ERA over 18 career starts vs. Boston. The visitors go with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3, 5.43 ERA) who is 0-3 with a 9.9 ERA over three career starts vs. Houston, but note that prior to losing at Toronto on May 21st, the Red Sox had won each of his previous seven starts. It’s been unfortunate timing for Rodriguez in his earlier match ups vs. Houston, but the trends today support a bounce back finally. Key Trends: - As note that Boston is already 9-0 (+9.0 units) this season alone with double revenge and two straight losses vs. an opponent. - It’s also interesting to note that Houston is just 1-3 (-6 units) in its last four after scoring four runs or less in four straight games. The verdict: I think the situation sets up great for an upset. Play on Boston! |
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05-25-19 | Red Sox v. Astros -128 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Houston Astros. Houston held on for a 4-3 win last night and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Astros go with Brad Peacock (5-3, 3.59 ERA), who posted a third straight victory on Monday by going five scoreless vs. the White Sox, giving up two hits and recording nine K’s (note that Peacock definitely comes in on top form, posting a minuscule 0.53 ERA and 24 K’s compared to only five walks over his past three starts.) The Red Sox go with David Price (2-2, 3.29) who has been a bright spot on the pitching staff this year. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Price, I just think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Key Trends: - Boston is just 3-6 (-3.5 units) this season when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. - Houston is 14-5 (+6.4 units) as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range this year. The verdict: Peacock is arguably the best pitcher in all of MLB right now and at this price at home, I think he’s the correct call in this matchup. Lay the short price! |
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05-25-19 | Mariners +120 v. A's | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners welcome back slugger Kyle Seager to the line-up and I think they’ll find a way to pull off the minor upset on Saturday night. The M’s come in focused after losing four straight. The A’s come in complacent after winning seven straight. Seager though will help an infield that’s made a league worst 57 errors, as he’s already a two-time gold glove winner. The M’s go with Yusei Kikuchi (3-1, 3.43 ERA), while the home side goes with Mike Fiers (3-3, 5.05). Note that Kikuchi is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts vs. Oakland, while Fiers is a terrible 2-2 with a 6.36 ERA in ten starts vs. Seattle. Key Trends: - Seattle is still 8-4 (+4.4 units) in its last 12 off two straight road losses vs. a division rival. - Oakland is only 2-5 (-3.8 units) in its last seven after six or more straight victories. The verdict: I like Kikuchi to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the Mariners! |
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05-25-19 | Reds v. Cubs -155 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cubs. After last night’s crushing ninth inning loss, I think the home side bounces back here. The Reds hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (1-5, 3.51 ERA) and clearly he’s thrown a lot better than what his win/loss record would indicate. Note though that Mahle was just 7-9 with a 4.98 ERA last year, including just 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA on the road. Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.06) gets the call for the Cubs and he’ll be looking to get back on track after allowing five runs over four innings vs. the Cards on Saturday. Darvish has traded good starts with horrible ones this year. Key Trends: - The Reds are just 4-10 (-4.8 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - The Cubs are still 9-2 (+6 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I think Mahle finally takes a step back and I like the veteran Darvish to get back on track in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price with confidence! |
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05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals -147 | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Let’s call these two struggling “gas cans” a wash on the mound tonight. The Braves go with the struggling Mike Foltynewicz (0-3, 6.91 ERA), while the home side goes with the struggling Miles Mikolas (4-4, 4.88). Both have been terrible all year and each comes in off a crummy outing. But after dropping two of three in Atlanta just last week, I think the home side comes in focused and delivers in the revenge scenario. Key Trends: - Atlanta is just 2-7 (-4.2 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - St. Louis is 9-2 (+6.3 units) this year at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I think “revenge” works in this one. Look for Mikolas to get the better of his counterpart at home and lay what I think to be a very reasonable mid-sized price with confidence! |
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05-24-19 | Marlins v. Nationals -139 | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. I think the Marlins will stumble here after winning six straight. Washington won’t be lacking for motivation clearly after losing five straight, including allowing the Mets to rally in the eighth inning last night to complete a four-game sweep with the 6-4 victory. The Marlins go with Pablo Lopez (3-6, 5.06 ERA), who comes in off a decent start but who is 0-1 with a ballooned 7.59 ERA in two career starts vs. the Nationals. Washington goes with Kyle McGowin (0-0, 6.00) who has pitched 10 2/3’s innings over six major league games, posting a 5.91 ERA and striking out 11 batters. Key Trends: - Miami is still just 7-14 as a road underdog this year. - Washington is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in its last four off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: I think the Marlins are playing over their heads right now and I’m not going to read too much into the Nationals’ current slump. Look for these trends to start going the other way effective immediately. Lay the price! |
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05-22-19 | Yankees v. Orioles +197 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles Yes the Yanks won 11-4 yesterday, but I still think that veteran pitcher CC Sabathia is overpriced in this particular matchup. Baltimore has lost nine straight at home in this series, so it won’t be lacking for motivation. Dan Straily (1-3, 8.51 ERA) has clearly been a disappointment, but he too won’t be lacking for motivation. Ultimately I believe that Sabathia’s numbers are unsustainable over the long-term and I expect regression sooner, rather than later. And that leaves the door open for the hungry dog in this matchup. Key Trends: - New York is already only 4-5 (-1.4 units) this year after three or more straight victories. - Baltimore is already 3-0 (+5.2 units) this season off a loss by six runs or more to a division rival. The verdict: I’m expecting the Yanks to have a letdown here. Play on the O’s! |
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05-22-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. The Padres look to sweep this series from the Diamondbacks, who continue to struggle with offensive consistency. Eric Lauer (2-4, 5.24 ERA) goes for San Diego, while Merrill Kelly (4-4, 4.21) gets the nod for the visitors. Lauer is 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona. He’s struggled twice against them this season, but he enters off his best start of the year by allowing two runs over six innings vs. the Pirates on Thursday. Kelly has also struggled in two starts vs. the Padres with a 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Key Trends: - Arizona is just 2-5 (-2.7 units) this year already off a one run loss vs. a division rival. - San Diego is still 4-0 this season after scoring four runs or less in six straight games. The verdict: I like San Diego to keep the momentum rolling here and give the slight nod to Lauer on the bump. Lay the short price! |
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05-22-19 | Royals v. Cardinals -177 | 8-2 | Loss | -177 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Overnight pitching change. The over night change because of yesterday’s cancellation favors the home side here. Both teams are struggling with offensive consistency, but I think Michael Wacha (3-1, 4.93 ERA) has a sizeable advantage over his counterpart Brad Keller (2-5, 4.66) this afternoon. Key Trends: - Kansas City is a poor 5-14 as a road dog this year - The Royals are 16-27 the L2 years in all interleague contests. - St. Louis is still 8-5 this season vs. clubs with losing records. The verdict: The Royals have to deal with the interleague rules, and with shifting things around after yesterday’s cancellation. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the home side and Wacha and it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Lay it! |
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05-21-19 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +130 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 130 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Marcus Stroman. He’s my “key angle” for this game. In a rebuilding season, Stroman has been a bright spot early on. Of yesterday’s 12-2 loss, I think Stroman offers great value to help his team bounce back here facing Eduardo Rodriguez. Stroman is 1-6 with a 2.95 ERA, while Rodriguez is 4-2 with a 4.89 ERA. Note as well that slugger Vlad Guerrero Jr. had a day off on Monday, but is expected back here. Key Trends: - Boston is is 10-11 (-6.1 units) this year as a road favorite. - Toronto is a money-making 7-6 (+3.5 units) vs. southpaws this season. The verdict: Great value on the hungry home dog! |
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05-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -138 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres The desperate home side has lost six of its last seven. Thankfully its ace Chris Paddack comes to the mound. It won’t be easy facing the hard-hitting visiting side and Luke Weaver, but I believe the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is an important series as well as San Diego hits the road for series in Toronto and at the Yankees. Paddack is 3-2 with a 1.99 ERA, while Weaver is 3-2 with a 3.16. San Diego is already 4-3 vs. the D-Backs this year and I look for them to extend that streak. Key Trends: - Arizona is just 9-11 (-3.7 units) this year already after two or more consecutive home games. - San Diego is 6-4 (+1.7 units) this season after a loss by two runs or less. The verdict: Lay the price on the hungry home side and expect a break out performance! |
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05-19-19 | Astros v. Red Sox -142 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Chris Sale (1-5, 4.24 ERA) has returned to form of late for Boston and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Sale is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts in May with 41 strikeouts and only one walk over his last 21 innings of work. Note that he’s 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. Houston. His counterpart Wade Miley (4-2, 3.51) is just 2-2 with a ballooned 7.13 ERA in four career starts vs. Boston. Key Trends: - Houston is just 2-5 (-8.2 units) this year after five or more consecutive road games. - Boston is 6-1 (+4.3 units) this season as a home favorite between -150 and -200. The verdict: I like Sale to easily get the better of his counterpart. Great price on the home side here! |
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05-19-19 | Brewers v. Braves +118 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BEWARE OF DOG on the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta has won four straight and I expect it to carry that momentum over here and to give Mike Foltynewicz (0-3, 8.02 ERA) his first win of the year. Brandon Woodruff (0-3, 8.02) gets the nod for the Brewers. Foltynewicz is 2-2 with a very respectable 2.90 ERA in five starts vs. the Brewers. Woodruff has never faced the Braves and while he’s personally in better current form than Foltynewicz, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is is only 11-13 on the road. - The Brewers are just 2-7 (-5.8 units) with double revenge in two straight losses vs. an opponent. The verdict: I think the momentum in which the Braves have created is real and I expect it to carry over here. Play on Atlanta! |
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05-19-19 | Mets -210 v. Marlins | 0-3 | Loss | -210 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the New York Mets. I think Noah Syndergaard (3-3, 4.74 ERA) and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this one. Syndgaard comes in off a strong outing as well, beating Washington by allowing only two runs over eight innings. Note that he’s also 6-0 with a 1.64 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Fish. His counterpart Sandy Alcantara (1-4, 5.11) is 0-1 with a 6.34 ERA vs. the Mets this season. Key Trends: - The Mets 4-0 (+4.2 units) already this year in revenging a shut out loss vs. an opponent. - The Marlins are just 2-5 in their last seven after shutting out a division rival. The verdict: This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the price with confidence! |
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05-18-19 | Cubs v. Nationals -142 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. I like the home side to bounce back here after yesterday’s 14-6 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (3-1, 1.16 ERA), while the home side counters with Stephen Strasburg (3-3, 3.63). Lester hasn’t given up a single run in his last three starts, which is clearly unbelievably impressive. However, I think it’s a run which is clearly unsustainable. Strasburg has quietly been dominating for a while now as well, going 2-2 with a 2.36 ERA with 47 K’s over his last 34 1/3’s innings of work. Key Trends: - The Cubs are just 3-6 this year as a road dog still. - Washington is 26-18 in its last 44 after allowing eight or more runs in its previous contest. The verdict: I think the hungry home side is the correct call here. Lester takes a step back and Strasburg continues to progress. All things considered, a great price. Lay it! |
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05-18-19 | Mets -122 v. Marlins | 0-2 | Loss | -122 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. After falling 8-6 in yesterday’s series opener, I like the Mets to bounce back here on Saturday. Miami looks poised for an immediate letdown after breaking its seven game slide. I give a big nod to Mets’ starter Steven Matz (3-2, 3.86 ERA) over his counterpart Pablo Lopez (2-5, 5.93). Lopez faced the Mets on May 10th and was shelled for ten runs and a career-high ten hits over three innings. Key Trends: - The Mets are already 2-0 this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. - The Marlins are only 2-7 vs. southpaws this year. The verdict: I think we’re getting fantastic value on Matz in this matchup. Lay the short price! |
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05-18-19 | Rockies v. Phillies -163 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Antonio Senzatela has been far better on the road than at home this year (big surprise considering his home field is Coors!), but I still think that Aaron Nola is the “correct call” in this matchup. Nola got out to a terrible start to 2019, but he’s been “lights out” since by giving up just six runs over his last 21 1/3’s innings of work (Nola is also 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three career starts vs. Colorado, while Senzatela is a pedestrian 0-1 with a 5.01 ERA in his lone start vs. Philadelphia. Key Trends: - Colorado is just 2-5 (-3 units) this year already following a one run loss. - The Rockies are only 4-9 (-5.1 units) after two or more straight losses. - The Phillies are 9-4 this season as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: Look for Nola to continue his progression in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price! |
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05-16-19 | Twins v. Mariners +108 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Seattle Mariners. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Fatigue. I think it’s a factor here for the Twins after their 8-7 extra innings win over the Angels yesterday. The Mariners had the day off after sweeping a two-game set from the A’s. Michael Pineda and Erik Swanson has both struggled this year, so I’ll call that department “even” tonight. The difference is in team conditioning and in the numbers. Key Trends: - Minnesota is just 3-7 in its last ten following a road game in which it scored eight or more runs in, while also winning the contest. - Seattle is 5-1 (+5.2 units) this season off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners! |
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05-15-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Dodgers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Kenta Maeda. He’s 4-2 with a 4.03 ERA this year and he’s gotten significantly better as the season has worn on. So far he has a sharp 34:18 K:BB over his last 38.2 innings of work and note that he’s 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA at home thus far. Key Trends: - San Diego is still just 11-12 vs. the division this year. - The Dodgers are 18-6 as a home favorite. The verdict: Look for LA and Maeda to take this one decisively and lay the price with confidence! |
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05-15-19 | Rockies v. Red Sox -140 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Eduardo Rodriguez. The Boston starter has been on fire of late. While just 4-2 with a 4.53 ERA overall, Rodriguez has gone 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA over his last six starts. All Boston victories. Key Trends: - Colorado is just 3-7 this season as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - The Rockies are only 1-4 this year after a win by two runs or less (won 5-4 in extras last night). - The Red Sox are 93-54 (+26.9 units) the L2 years following a loss. The verdict: I like Rodriguez to carry over his recent form here and I think that Marquez and the Rockies take a step back here after last night’s extra innings win. Lay the reasonable mid sized price! |
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05-15-19 | Mets v. Nationals -160 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Patrick Corbin. No big surprise to learn that my “key angle” for this contest comes on Nats’ starter Patrick Corbin (3-1, 3.20 ERA) so far this year, including 2-1 in all “night” contests. Key Trends: - The Mets are just 8-11 (-4.5 units) this season after a win. - The Nationals are 3-5 (-4.9 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175. The verdict: I think Corbin is the correct call here over his younger counterpart (Font). Lay the price with confidence! |
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05-14-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -140 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 29 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Pirates’ Joe Musgrove (1-4, 4.20 ERA) squares off against the Diamondbacks Luke Weaver (3-1, 2.98) in this one. Weaver is coming off back-to-back seven inning performances and in three career starts vs. Pittsburgh he’s 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA. Musgrove has been shelled for 14 runs over his last 5 2/3’s innings of work. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 3-5 (-1.3 units) as a road dog in the +105 to +150 range. - Arizona is 15-10 in all night games. The verdict: Momentum. The D-Backs come in with a lot of it after five straight victories. I think that Weaver is well worth the price of admission in this one! |
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05-13-19 | A's v. Mariners -122 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Seattle Mariners. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Mike Fiers. Fiers (3-3, 5.48 ERA) comes in off his second career no-hitter in a 2-0 win over the Reds on Tuesday. Despite the great effort, Fiers still owns the poor overall 5.48 ERA and I think he suffers a predictable letdown here. His counterpart Yusei Kikuchi (2-1, 3.54) most recently allowed one run off three hits with ten K’s and one walk in a no-decision to the Tribe on Friday. Key Trends: - Oakland is just 5-13 on the road. - Seattle is 11-3 (+8.3 units) vs. clubs with losing records this year. The verdict: A great spot bet in my opinion, as I think Fiers definitely suffers a letdown after his no-hitter last time out. Lay the short price! |
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05-13-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -150 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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05-13-19 | Angels v. Twins -146 | 5-4 | Loss | -146 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Jose Berrios. He should definitely be a bigger favorite in this matchup in my opinion. Both teams come in off losses, but Berrios (6-1, 2.53 ERA) has arguably been the hottest pitcher so far in 2019. He faces Tyler Skaggs (3-3, 4.70) who was just rocked for eight runs over 4 2/3’s innings vs. the Tigers on Wednesday. Key Trends: - LA is just 8-12 on the road this year. - Minnesota is 13-7 at home. - The Twins are 11-3 (+8.8 units) this year following a loss. The verdict: I like Berrios to continue his red hot start. Great value, lay the price with confidence! |
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05-11-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers -133 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -133 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Dodgers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Inept offense. Max Scherzer (1-4, 3.78 ERA) has looked a lot better of late, but the Nationals continue to struggle at the plate, as evidenced by yesterday’s 5-0 setback. The Dodgers’ Walker Buehler (4-0, 4.95) comes in off a strong outing vs. the Braves on Monday, allowing three runs with eight K’s over seven innings. Key Trends: - Washington is just 6-14 (-12.6 units) in all “night” games this year. - LA is 9-4 (+3 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I like Buehler to match Scherzer. Lay the short price with confidence on the hot hitting home side! |
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05-11-19 | Reds v. Giants +116 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the San Francisco Giants. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Reds’ starter Anthony DeSclafani’s issues with the Giants. He owns a lifetime 6.08 ERA vs. the Giants and I think he’ll struggle here as well. San Fran starter Jeff Samardzija is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA and after yesterday’s 7-0 loss in the series opener, I think he and the home side offer terrific value to bounce back on Saturday. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 7-14 on the road this year. - The Reds are only 13-18 vs. right-handed starters this year. - San Fran is a money-making 11-9 (+4.5 units) this season in all “night” games. The verdict: I think the shape money is on Samardzija. Play on the Giants! |
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05-10-19 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -140 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Braves’ suspect bullpen. When the D-Backs swept a three-game series in Atlanta at the start of the year, they’d slug out 11 runs off 14 hits with ten walks over ten innings off Braves’ relievers. And it was the same thing in last night’s opener, as Arizona would rally in the tenth to earn a walk-off victory. Key Trends: - Atlanta is just 4-8 as a road dog this year. - Arizona is already 3-1 this season as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Greinke also gets the big nod on the mound over Teheran. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much higher. Great value on the home side, lay it! |
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05-10-19 | Padres v. Rockies -145 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Rockies’ starter German Marquez. He’s given up just three runs in two starts vs. the Padres at Coors Field. Key Trends: - San Diego is just 45-80 (-14.5 units) as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - The Friars are already only 2-4 (-2.6 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. - Colorado is already 5-1 this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Look for Colorado to build off last night’s high-scoring victory and lay the price with confidence! |
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05-10-19 | Marlins v. Mets -165 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Mets’ starter Zack Wheeler. MLB handicapping for the most part comes down to the starting pitching, so it doesn’t come as a big surprise to learn that today’s “key angle” is Mets’ starter Zack Wheeler. Both teams have been struggling of late (the Marlins much more so than the Mets) and each of these starters has also struggled to open the 2019 campaign. Wheeler though is 5-2 with a 1.89 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Fish. Key Trends: - Miami is just 4-12 as a road dog this year. - New York is 6-1 in its last seven after a loss by two runs or less. The verdict: The Mets are only 4.5 games behind the Phillies and face a very favorable stretch over the next two weeks. Look for the home side to get things rolling on Friday night and lay the price with confidence! |
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05-09-19 | Giants v. Rockies -151 | Top | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Colorado Rockies. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Giants’ starter Derek Holland. He’s a terrible 1-3 with a 6.18 ERA in five career games vs. Colorado. Kyle Freeland is 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in nine starts lifetime vs. San Francisco. Both of these starters have struggled to open 2019, but I think that Holland’s in over his head once again in this difficult road ballpark. Freeland on the other hand has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around and I think that starts tonight. Key Trends: - San Francisco is just 4-7 (-2.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Colorado is already 3-1 (+1.5 units) this season as a -150 fav or higher. The verdict: A fair price considering all of the above information. Lay the price with confidence! |
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05-08-19 | Reds v. A's -118 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the A’s. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Reds’ starter Sonny Gray. He’s 0-4 with a 3.89 ERA and the only time he faced his former team he’d get destroyed, allowing five runs and nine hits over five innings while he was with the Yanks. I think he gets another rude welcoming in his first return to Oakland. The A’s Brett Anderson is 4-2 with a 3.89 ERA thus far. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 15-26 the L2 years in all interleague contests. - Oakland is 11-6 at home so far this year. The verdict: Look for Anderson and the A’s to get the better of Gray tonight. Lay the price! |
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05-08-19 | Phillies v. Cardinals -136 | 5-0 | Loss | -136 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Cards starter Joe Flaherty. After yesterday’s 11-1 loss, I think the home side bounces back with Flaherty on the mound. Flaherty (3-2, 4.17 ERA) is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA vs. the Phillies. Phillies’ starter Jerad Eickhoff (1-1, 2.05), is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA vs. the Cards. Key Trends: - Philadelphia is still just 1-6 (-4.3 units) as a road underdog this year. - St. Louis is already 8-2 (+5.3 units) this season at home with a money line between -100 and -150. The verdict: I think Flaherty at home at this price is definitely the correct call. Lay the short price! |
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05-07-19 | Marlins v. Cubs -192 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Chicago Cubs. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Momentum. Chicago had won six straight until yesterday’s series opening loss to the Marlins. The Fish had lost three straight previous to yesterday’s victory. The Marlins have been anemic at the plate this year, especially on the road, so I’m not going to read too much into one decent outing. Caleb Smith and Jon Lester are evenly matched on the mound tonight, but Chicago has been solid at home all year and I look for it bounce back after yesterday’s loss. Key Trends: - Miami is still just 4-9 as a road underdog this year. - Chicago is 8-4 asa home favorite. - The Cubs are 93-60 (+12.2 units) the L2 years following a loss. The verdict: Look for the home side to avenge yesterday’s setback and lay the price! |
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05-06-19 | Mariners v. Yankees -142 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the New York Yankees. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - CC Sabathia. For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching, so it comes as little surprise to learn that today’s “key angle” is Yanks’ starter Sabathia, who is 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA so far this season and who is 14-6 with a 2.60 ERA in 29 starts vs. Seattle. His counterpart Felix Hernandez is just 1-2 with a 4.31 ERA this season. Key Trends: - Seattle is just 2-12 (-9.8 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. - New York is 49-23 (+13.3 units) the L2 years as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range (including 4-1 this season!) The verdict: Sabathia at this price at home is definitely the correct move in my opinion. Lay the price! |
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05-05-19 | Twins v. Yankees -139 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the New York Yankees. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - History of futility. The Twins rebounded from Friday’s 6-3 loss to win 7-3 yesterday. But wins have been few and far between for Minnesota in the new Yankee Stadium, as it’s still just 10-26 there. Ex Yankee Michael Pineda starts for the Twins and he’s coming off three straight poor outings, most recently allowing five runs in five innings in an 11-0 loss to Houston (has given up 15 runs over his last three outings overall.) Domingo German is so far 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA. Key Trends: - Minnesota is just 2-4 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - New York is 6-1 this season as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the short price! |
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05-04-19 | Astros -130 v. Angels | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Houston Astros. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Astros’ closer Roberto Osuna Jr. This game is being played in Monterrey Mexico, which is only a 12 hour drive from where Osuna grew up in Los Mochis. The Angels are only the home team on paper. Osuna is 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA with seven saves in 13 games and over 13 1/3’s innings he’s allowed just three hits with no walks and 11 K’s. Key Trends: - Houston is 4-0 this year already when playing with a day off. - LA is just 1-3 this season already when playing with a day off. The verdict: The difference isn’t with the starting pitchers, it’s in the intangibles and numbers. Great value, lay the short price! |
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