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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-15-19 | White Sox v. Angels -148 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 32 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the LA Angels. No need to overthink this one as I look for the home side to take advantage of what I believe to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors see Reynaldo Lopez (7-9, 5.16 ERA) toe the slab and he enters off a rare decent outing, giving up three runs over five innings in a win over the Phillies. Lopez has been more “miss” than “hit” this year though and note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 5.31 ERA on the road this season. Andrew Heaney (1-3, 4.89) looked sharp in his return from the IL last Saturday, giving up one run off three hits with four K’s over four innings in what turned out to be no-decision vs. the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday. Key Trends: - Chicago is just 3-7 in its last ten American League night road games as an underdog in the +135 to +165 range. - LA is 7-2 in its last nine home games by Heaney in which he’s a favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: I believe Lopez takes a giant step back in this difficult road venue; lay the price! |
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08-14-19 | Reds v. Nationals -140 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Washington Nationals. Trevor Bauer (10-8, 3.74 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors. Bauer had a great debut for his new team, but note that he still owns a sub-pr 4.80 ERA in all “night” games this year. Stephen Strasburg (14-5, 3.72) gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Friday and he comes into the final month of the regular season sporting a whopping 181/38 K/W over 152.1 frames of work. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 19-29 as a road dog this year. - Washington is 26-16 as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: I think Bauer has his hands full vs. the surging Nationals team which has won six of eight; lay the price! |
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08-14-19 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Rockies | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Robbie Ray (10-7, 3.99 ERA) has for the most part been as solid as Arizona could have possibly asked for this year and I think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his erratic counterpart Kyle Freeland (3-10, 7.06). Freeland has looked a bit better of late, but he’s still only 3-3 with a ballooned 5.40 ERA in ten career outings vs. the Diamondbacks. Freeland has allowed a whopping 22 home runs this year and the D-Backs already have seven dingers over the first two games of this series. Ray is 5-5 with a 5.21 ERA lifetime vs. Colorado, but he’s coming off a a gem vs. the Dodgers on Friday, allowing two runs over six innings while striking out seven. Key Trends: - Arizona is a sharp 12-6 (+5.2 units) on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - Colorado is just 5-11 (-4.4 units) this season as a home underdog. The verdict: Look for Ray to easily out duel Freeland and for Arizona’s red hot bats to continue the onslaught; lay the price! |
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08-13-19 | Pirates v. Angels -160 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -160 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Angels. I had a free play on the Angels last night and they unfortunately came up short, falling late to the Pirates, who finally broke an eight-game losing streak. LA had won two in a row in Boston before returning home and looked flat from the start last night. But with a night to re-focus and with what I believe to be the clearly superior starter on the mound for it this evening, I look for LA to respond on Tuesday. The Pirates see Trevor Williams (4-5, 5.06 ERA) toe the slab for Pittsburgh. Williams most recently got blasted for six runs off eight hits in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. Griffin Canning (4-6, 4.76) gets the nod for the home side and he’s returning from a short stint on the IL. Previous to that Canning threw six scoreless innings in a victory. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 2-6 in its last eight road games following a road victory. - LA is still 7-3 in its last ten interleague home games as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: Look for Canning to deliver vs. the volatile Williams; lay the price with confidence! |
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08-13-19 | Cardinals -175 v. Royals | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 7* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. I think that Jack Flaherty (5-7, 3.72 ERA) and the National League Cardinals offer great value here to smash Glenn Sparkman (3-7, 5.71) and the American League Royals. The Royals return home from a 3-6 road trip, while the Cardinals are in the thick of a wildcard race. Flaherty enters on top form, while only 1-1 over his last six trips to the hill, he’s posted a minuscule 0.94 ERA in that span (he’s faced the Royals once and dominated in that matchup as well, giving up two runs over seven innings in 2018.) Sparkman comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having posted four straight poor outings, allowing 22 runs over his last 19 2/3’s frames of work. Key Trends: - St. Louis is 10-6 this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher. - Kansas City is just 14-24 as a home underdog. The verdict: It’s important to note that KC has a total of just 48 home runs over 58 games at home so far this year, 28th out of 30 teams. Look for Flaherty to easily out duel his volatile counterpart; lay the price! |
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08-13-19 | Mets v. Braves -114 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. It’s a big game for both teams and clearly the oddsmakers think these starting pitchers are very evenly matched. And in my opinion, that makes the home field advantage a very real advantage for Max Fried (13-4, 4.11 ERA) over his counterpart Zach Wheeler (9-6, 4.20). Wheeler enters off a gem vs. the Marlins on Tuesday and he comes in on a 15-innings scoreless streak (he’s a pedestrian 4-4 with a 4.89 ERA on the road this year.) Fried comes in off a strong outing as well, striking out ten and allowing three runs off six hits and a walk over six innings in what turned out to be a victory over the hard-hitting Twins on Wednesday. Fried has won four straight and struck out 25 over his last 21.2 innings of work. Key Trends: - New York is just 8-20 (-10.6 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Atlanta is 16-9 (+5.2 units) at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: As good as Wheeler has been of late, I given Fried the big nod on the bump because of home field in this spot; lay the short price! |
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08-12-19 | Red Sox v. Indians +100 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cleveland Indians. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. The Red Sox see Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 4.17 ERA) toe the slab for the visitors, while the home side counters with Zach Plesac (6-3, 3.13). Boston is now 7.5 games back in the Wild card race and Cleveland has a big opportunity to drive some final nails in the coffin for the defending champs. Plesac made his debut in Boston this year and he’d give up one run over six innings in the victory. Plesac comes in off a gem as well, going six shutout frames vs. the Rangers. Rodriguez has been a bright spot for Boston this year, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Key Trends: - The Red Sox are just 11-20 (-10.1 units) this season when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. - The Indians are 24-12 (+7.8 units) this year vs. southpaws. The verdict: Boston has lost 11 of its last 14, while Cleveland has won nine of its last 12. Expect these trends to continue on Monday night; play on the Indians! |
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08-11-19 | Indians v. Twins -150 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -150 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CA$H-BOMB on the Minnesota Twins. The Twins moved a game ahead of the Indians with yesterdays’ victory and I believe the home side carries that momentum over here. Minnesota has to be feeling confident as well by sending ace Jose Berrios (10-6, 3.24 ERA) to the hill, as he’s 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA over ten career starts vs. Cleveland. The visitors counter with Aaron Civale (1-1, 0.75) who has given up only one run over 12 innings spanning two major league starts. Clearly though Civale faces his stiffest test of his young career tonight. Key Trends: - Cleveland is just 11-13 in its last 24 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Minnesota is 56-33 vs. right-handed starters this year. The verdict: I think Civale takes a step back finally in this difficult matchup; lay the price! |
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08-09-19 | Braves -135 v. Marlins | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Braves. Caleb Smith (7-5, 3.35 ERA) has been a bright spot on the Marlins all year. He’s been better at home than on the road as well and he enters off an unfortunate loss for the Rays, giving up three runs over five innings. Julio Teheran (6-7, 3.46 ERA) comes in off a similar performance and overall it’s been a resurgent season for the veteran. Teheran has been better at home than on the road as well, but I still believe the Braves hold significant advantages in every other department. Key Trends: - ATL is 16-10 vs. southpaws this year. - Miami is 30-53 vs. right-handed starters this season. The verdict: Unfortunately for Smith, he plays on the Marlins. I like Teheran to take advantage of this anemic Miami line-up for at ATL to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night; lay the price! |
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08-07-19 | Padres -145 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and in my opinion, the visitors definitely have the upper-hand in this one. The Padres see Joey Lucchesi (7-6, 4.23 ERA) toe the slab and he most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over six innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Dodgers on Thursday. Despite the shaky start, Lucchesi enters with an elite 111/38 K/W thus far. The home side goes with the volatile Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 5.49) who was rocked for six runs off nine hits and striking out one over four innings in a loss to the Astros on Friday. Key Trends: - San Diego is 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. - The Mariners are only 2-5 in their last seven home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. The verdict: I love Lucchesi in this matchup and I believe he could/should in fact be a much larger fav. Lay the price with confidence! |
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08-07-19 | A's v. Cubs -142 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. These are two playoff hopeful clubs and in my opinion, home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Volatile Homer Bailey (9-7, 5.20 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors and he comes in off back-to-back decent starts, but if the veteran has one area in which he’s struggled in this year, it’s unquestionably been his play on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 7.47 ERA. Jose Quintana (9-7, 4.40) comes in off a strong start as well, holding the Brewers to two runs with five K’s and no walks over six innings. Key Trends: - Oakland is just 2-7 in its last nine interleague day games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. - Chicago is 10-6 in its last 16 interleague home games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. The verdict: Over his last five starts Quintana is 4-0 and I expect him to once again take advantage of the “Friendly Confines.” Lay the price! |
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08-07-19 | Rangers v. Indians -188 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. There was an over night pitching change in this one. I liked the Indians before, and I still like the Tribe despite the change. This is the first game of the double-header, with Ariel Jurado (6-6, 4.29 ERA) toeing the slab for the visitors and Zach Plesac (6-3, 3.41) countering for the Indians. Jurado is a terrible 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA over his last four starts. Plesac on the other hand is 4-1 with a 3.51 ERA at home this year. Key Trends: - Texas is just 5-12 this season as a road dog in the +150 to +200 range. - Cleveland is 14-7 at home as a favorite in the same price range. The verdict: This one sets up perfectly for the hard-hitting home side, who I believe will take full advantage of the over night switch; lay the price! |
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08-06-19 | Braves v. Twins -143 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -143 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Twins. I think this one favors the home side in this interleague matchup. The Braves see the volatile Mike Foltynewicz (2-5, 6.37 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios (10-5, 2.80). Foltnewicz was sent to the minors back in June and he’s back in the big leagues after a respectable stint. Still, Foltynewicz is being thrown to the wolves here in this tough matchup in my opinion (note the ATL has now lost three of its last four games.) Berrios comes in with confidence after back-to-back victories, most recently striking out a season-high 11 batters in a victory over Miami on Wednesday (seven shutout frames.) Key Trends: - Atlanta is just 5-12 (-5.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Minnesota is 20-9 at home as a favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the reasonable mid-sized price! |
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08-05-19 | Brewers -135 v. Pirates | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers’ Jordan Lyles (6-7, 5.15 ERA) has a big opportunity to get back on track against his former team here and to help Milwaukee’s chances at one of the Wild Cards. Lyles though comes in off a gem vs. the surging A’s on Wednesday, holding them to one run off three hits with two walks while striking out four over five innings. Now with an opportunity to get immediate revenge on the team that traded him, I look for the veteran to deliver the goods here. Dario Agrazal most recently allowed three runs off six hits in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday for Pittsburgh and he’s now posted back-to-back poor outings. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine National League road games as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range. - Pittsburgh is 4-6 in its last ten National League home games as an underdog in the -110 to -130 range. The verdict: I like Lyles and the playoff hungry Brewers to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short price! |
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08-04-19 | Cardinals v. A's -124 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Oakland A’s. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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08-03-19 | Cardinals v. A's -130 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Oakland A’s. Adam Wainwright (7-7, 4.47 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the A’s turn to Tanner Roark (6-7, 4.24). Wainwright enters off a decent outing vs. the Cubs on Tuesday, but while he’s 5-2 with a 2.26 ERA at home, note that Wainwright is just 2-5 with a ballooned 7.16 ERA on the road this season. Roark make his first start for his new team; so far he owns a respectable 3.99 ERA in all “home” situations this year. Key Trends: - St. Louis is only 2-6 in its last eight afternoon National League road games as an underdog in the +115 to +135 range. - The A’s are now 7-1 in their last eight home day games as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range. The verdict: Look for Roark to deliver the goods in his first start for his new team and for Wainwright’s road struggles to continue; great price on the A’s! |
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08-03-19 | Reds v. Braves -118 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. I think Trevor Bauer (9-8, 3.79 ERA) will struggle in his first start for his new team in this NL format. The Braves’ Dallas Keuchel (3-4, 3.86) will look to take advantage. Bauer is only 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in four starts since the break (and in his last trip to the hill he was crushed for eight runs over 4 1/3’s innings vs. the soft-hitting Royals.) Keuchel has a 3.52 ERA in six starts in July. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 17-28 (-4.8 units) this year as a road dog of +100 or higher. - Atlanta is 21-9 (+7.1 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Keuchel at this price and considering Bauer’s recent form is a “steal” in my opinion; lay the price! |
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08-03-19 | Mariners v. Astros -180 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Houston Astros. I like Aaron Sanchez (3-14, 6.07 ERA) to match his counterpart Marco Gonzales (12-8, 4.21) inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the hard-hitting home side is the correct call in this particular matchup. Sanchez is without question in a “funk” as he’s winless over his last 17 starts (0-13), but he’ll take confidence in the fact that he’s 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA in six appearances vs. Seattle. Gonzales has been sharp overall of late, but note that he’s 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA in five career appearances vs. Houston (that includes going 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA in two starts this year.) Key Trends: - Seattle is a terrible 5-17 (-8.1 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or higher. - Houston is 23-7 (+12.5 units) this season vs. southpaws. The verdict: As stated off the top, I think it’ll be a war of attrition on the hill tonight, which I then believe definitely swings the favor to the home side; lay the price! |
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08-03-19 | Mets -120 v. Pirates | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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08-03-19 | Brewers v. Cubs -140 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. Chicago pulled away for an easy victory yesterday afternoon and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. The home side goes with Cole Hamels (6-3, 2.98 ERA) who has missed the last five weeks because of an oblique issue. Hamels comes in focused and refreshed for the final push of the season and he’s already dominated the Brewers twice this year, giving up two runs in 14-8 victory on April 6th, before then giving up one run over seven innings on May 11th. Milwaukee sees Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.48) take the hill and he had his last start pushed back after exiting his start vs. the Cubs on July 26th with a shoulder issue. Gonzalez has enjoyed success vs. the Cubs throughout his career, but i think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Key Trends: - As note that Milwaukee is now 11-16 (-3 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Chicago is an amazing 21-7 (+12.4 units) at home this season with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: “Home field” is a very real deciding factor for Hamels here; lay the price! |
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08-01-19 | Twins -151 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -151 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has won the first two games of this series and I believe the Twins will keep the foot on the gas here as well. This is based primarily on the fact that Twins’ starter Michael Pineda (7-5, 4.30 ERA) is finally rounding into form, going 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA. Conversely his counter Jordan Yamomoto (4-2, 3.64) has regressed after a hot start, posting a poor 9.00 ERA over his past three trips to the mound. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 16-4 (+10.9 units) this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - Miami is just 7-21 (-10.6 units) this season at home with a money line in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the Twins! |
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07-31-19 | Twins -174 v. Marlins | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. No upsets here as I expect the hard-hitting Twins and Jose Berrios (9-5, 2.94 ERA) to easily get the better of the lowly Marlins and Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 4.18). Alcantara is just 1-4 with a 4.75 ERA over his last eight starts, but he owns a deplorable 6.35 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 8-3 in its last 11 interleague night games as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. - Miami only 7-13 in its last 20 home interleague contests as an underdog in the +150 to +200 range. The verdict: Note as well that the Marlins are expected to be without slugging first baseman Garrett Cooper (11 homer runs, .294 batting average and 38 RBIs) with a hamstring injury. This one has “blowout” written all over it; play on the Twins! |
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07-31-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +125 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Colorado Rockies. Hyun Jin Ryu (11-2, 1.74 ERA) has been unbelievable overall this year, but I think he’ll struggle at Coors Field, the ballpark which definitely “evens the field” (note that Ryu is just 4-7 with a 5.34 ERA in 12 match ups lifetime vs. the Rockies as well.) German Marquez (10-5, 4.88) gets the nod for the home side and he comes in on top form, having gone back-to-back seven-inning efforts. The verdict: Marquez has to be feeling confident here as well as note that he’s 2-1 with a sharp 2.89 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Dodgers. Ryu can’t be feeling as good though, as note that he’s 1-4 with a 9.15 ERA in five starts at Coors. This one wreaks of “upset.” Play on the Rockies! |
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07-31-19 | Diamondbacks v. Yankees -131 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Yankees. Zach Greinke (10-4, 2.87 ERA) is enjoying a strong season for the D-Backs. But after losing 4-2 in yesterday’s series opener, I think that Mashario Tanaka (7-6, 4.79) will bounce back after a scuffling stretch personally, while also helping his team bounce back from yesterday’s setback. Key Trends: - Arizona is just 37-39 vs. right-handed starters this year - The D-Backs are a money-burning 67-67 the L2 years in all “day” games. - New York is 26-15 in all day games this season. - The Yanks are 52-24 vs. right-handed starters this season. The verdict: I think the “big bats” of New York “wake up” here and I expect Tanaka to match Greinke’s effort. In a scenario like that, I definitely think that the value lies with home side in this one! |
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07-31-19 | Pirates v. Reds -212 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cincinnati Reds. No upsets here, as I think that Louis Castillo (9-4, 2.71 ERA) will bounce back from a horrible start (rare) and get the better of his overachieving rookie counterpart Dario Agrazal (2-1, 3.24). The Pirates broke a seven game slide with a wild 11-4 win last night, a victory which featured a benches clearing brawl. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Pittsburgh after that emotional win. Castillo was blasted for six runs over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Friday, but he’s a sharp 5-3 with a 2.28 ERA at home this season (and a red hot 8-1 with a 2.45 ERA in all “night” games.) Agrazal comes in off his worst start of his pro career, getting rocked for five rusn over five innings in 6-3 loss to the Mets on Friday. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 2-6 in its last eight road games after scoring ten or more runs in its previous contest. - The Reds are 7-2 in their last nine day home games after allowing ten or more runs in their previous contest. The verdict: After his last sub-par outing, I think that Castillo comes in “focused on the task at hand.” Lay the price with confidence! |
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07-30-19 | Twins -153 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Minnesota Twins. I think that Jake Odorizzi (11-5, 3.84 ERA) is going to easily get the better of his younger counterpart Zac Gallen (1-2, 2.76) tonight. Odorrizzi is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in five career starts vs. the Marlins, including 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA at Marlins Park. Gallen has made six major league starts and while he enters off a decent showing vs. the White Sox, clearly the sample size is just too small and I believe he’s definitely in over his head in this particular matchup. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games as a favorite in the -140 to -160 range. - Miami is still only 3-8 in its last 11 night home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. The verdict: I like Odorizzi to bounce back after a poor start vs. the Yanks and to continue his strong trend of domination vs. the Marlins; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-28-19 | Diamondbacks -155 v. Marlins | 1-5 | Loss | -155 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Miami scored a 3-2 upset in ten innings on Friday, but Arizona rolled to a 9-2 victory on Saturday. No upsets here in my opinion though on Sunday either as I look for Robbie Ray (9-6, 3.95 ERA) of the D-Backs to easily get the better of his volatile counterpart Elieser Hernandez (1-4, 5.24). Ray has produced four quality starts in a row, going 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in the process. Overall Ray is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA lifetime in Miami. Hernandez on the other hand is 0-1 with an atrocious 9.39 ERA in six relief outings this year and 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA in five starts. Key Trends: - Arizona is a perfect 4-0 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Miami is a terrible 6-19 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: I’m banking on Ray continuing his hot form as he continues to be the subject of trade rumors; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-28-19 | Pirates v. Mets -129 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. Ultimately I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors go with the volatile Chris Archer (3-7, 5.40 ERA), while the home side counters with Jason Vargas (5-5, 3.96). New York has won three straight overall and it’s hungry for the series sweep here. The Pirates on the other hand are clearly moving in the opposite direction now having gone just 2-13 since the break. Vargas comes in off a gem as well, holding the Friars scoreless over six frames. Archer comes in off a terrible performance, allowing four runs over six innings in a loss to St. Louis. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is a brutal 10-15 as a road underdog in the +100 to +150 range this year. - The Mets are 10-5 in their last 15 as a home favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: New York hasn’t thrown in the towel yet; lay this reasonable price with confidence! |
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07-28-19 | Rockies v. Reds -158 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cincinnati Reds. Alex Wood (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his season debut for Cincinnati and I think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his volatile counterpart Peter Lambert (2-2, 5.93). Wood went 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four rehab assignments and he was 9-7 with a 3.68 ERA for the Dodgers last year. Lambert is 0-2 over his last six trips to the hill, giving up three runs over five innings in a loss at Washington most recently. Key Trends: - Colorado is just 23-31 on the road this year. - Cincinnati is 5-2 as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range this season. The verdict: Wood couldn’t have asked for a better first matchup; expect the veteran to make the most of it and lay this price with confidence! |
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07-28-19 | Braves v. Phillies -140 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. No need to overthink this one. After dropping the first two games of this series, I think the Phillies bounce back in the finale with their ace on the mound (I had a play on Atlanta last night.) Kevin Gausman (3-5, 5.71 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the Phillies go with Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.64). Gausman returned from injury and looked decent in his first start back vs. the Nationals, but note that he’s 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in three career starts vs. Philadelphia. Nola on the other hand is 9-3 with a 2.26 ERA in 15 career match ups vs. ATL. Overall Nola is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in July and I think he’ll be the difference maker in this crucial game for the home side. Key Trends: - Atlanta is just 5-10 (-3.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is 22-13 (+6.3 units) this season in all “day” games. The verdict: Considering the gravity of this game for Philadelphia, I think we’re getting an unbelievable price on Nola in this match-up; lay it! |
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07-27-19 | Indians -192 v. Royals | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. I think that Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.61 ERA) and the hard-hitting Tribe are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The home side counters with the volatile Glenn Sparkman (3-6, 4.67). In four July starts Clevinger is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA, walking five and striking out 34. Sparkman’s been much better at home than on the road throughout his career, but he’s a poor 0-1 with a ballooned 5.51 ERA in three career starts vs. the Tribe. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 14-4 this year as a favorite of -200 or higher. - KC is just 13-23 as a home dog this season. The verdict: Note as well that Clevinger is 7-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 11 career appearances vs. the Royals. Lay the price and expect a blowout! |
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07-27-19 | Braves -126 v. Phillies | Top | 15-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Atlanta Braves. I like the Braves to build off their beatdown victory in last night’s series opener. The visitors see Max Fried (10-4, 4.08 ERA) toe the slab, while Zach Eflin (7-10, 4.25) gets the nod for the home side. Fried makes his first start since the 15th when he exited a game vs. the Brewers with a blister issue (before that he held Milwaukee to three hits over five scoreless frames.) In seven career appearances vs. the Phillies Fried is 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA. Eflin has been a complete “gas can” over the last month or so and I have a hard time seeing the struggling starter just “flipping a switch” here (he’s gone 1-3 with a ballooned 9.38 ERA over his last five starts.) Key Trends: - Atlanta is 9-1 (+7.8 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Philadelphia is just 11-15 (-6.5 units) this season vs. southpaws. The verdict: I believe Eflin gets chased early; all things considered, a great price! |
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07-26-19 | Giants v. Padres -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres. No upsets here as I look for the scuffling home side to lay everything on the line tonight as it desperately tries to get back into the Wildcard race. Jeff Samrdzija (7-8, 4.08 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the Padres counter with Joey Lucchesi (7-5, 4.27.) The Padres won’t be lacking for motivation here either after the Giants swept them from July 1-3, outscoring them 30-11 in the process. Key Trends: - San Francisco is still only 11-14 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - San Diego is still 17-10 (+8.4 units) in its last 27 after scoring two runs or less. The verdict: Look for the hungry home side to deliver the goods in this big time revenge scenario; lay the price! |
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07-26-19 | Twins -147 v. White Sox | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. I like the Twins to build off their win yesterday. Minnesota hands the ball to Michael Pineda (6-5, 4.41 ERA), while the home side counters with Dylan Cease (1-2, 6.19). Pineda has given up one earned run in each of his past three trips to the hill, going 2-1 with 20 K’s and just two walks. Cease gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Rays on Sunday, which was his third start since being recalled. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 14-6 this season as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - Chicago is just 3-6 in its last nine vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: Keep your eyes on Twins’ slugger Nelson Cruz, who hit three home runs in yesterday’s 10-3 series opening victory (he has eight dingers in his last nine games.) Chicago has lost 11 of its last 14 and I expect its struggles to continue here; lay the price! |
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07-26-19 | Diamondbacks -162 v. Marlins | 2-3 | Loss | -162 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. No upsets here as I think that Arizona ace Zack Greinke (10-4, 2.93 ERA) will easily get the better of his volatile counterpart Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 4.25) of the Marlins. Arizona is stuck right around the .500 mark and there’s no better time than right now to make its move for one of the Wild Cards. Alcantara has lost three straight, allowing a combined ten runs over his last 11 innings of work. Greinke on the other hand is 7-0 with a 3.19 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. Miami, including 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two starts vs. it last year. Greinke comes in off a strong performance, holding the Brewers to two runs over seven innings. Key Trends: - Arizona is a perfect 4-0 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - Miami is a terrible 8-23 as a home dog of +125 or higher. The verdict: The stage is set for an epic destruction in my opinion and this line could/should in fact be much larger; lay it! |
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07-25-19 | Rangers v. A's -177 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -177 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Oakland A’s. I don’t normally attach a 10* rating to a pick with a line of this size, but in this case I absolutely believe that the talent mismatch on the mound justifies the wager. Ariel Jurado (5-6, 4.92) toes the slab for the visitors and he enters off an outing to forget, getting rocked for five runs off eight hits with a walk over five innings in a loss to the Astros. Note that Jurado has been particularly ineffective in all “night” games by going just 3-3 with a ballooned 5.77 ERA. Brett Anderson (9-5, 3.82) gets the nod for the home side and he’s been at his best in all “night” contests this year, going 7-2 with a 2.69 ERA. Key Trends: - Texas is just 3-8 in its last 11 American League night road games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range. - Oakland is 9-4 in its last 13 home games as a favorite in the -165 to -185 range. The verdict: I believe Jurado’s issues continue in this difficult road venue; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-25-19 | Indians -144 v. Royals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* CA$H-BOMB on Cleveland Indians. No need to overthink this one. I absolutely feel that Adam Plutko (3-2, 4.81 ERA) and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this particular contest. Plutko comes in off a loss despite allowing just one run off two hits while striking out four over seven innings in a setback to these very Royals on Saturday. The home side counters with the erratic Mike Montgomery (1-3, 6.83) who was shelled for five runs off six hits while striking out one over two innings in a loss to these very Indians last Friday. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 7-2 in Plutko’s last nine American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. - The Royals are just 2-5 in their last seven home games as an underdog in the +135 to +165 range. The verdict: I’m expecting Montgomery to get the hook early and I look for Plutko to build off his last strong effort vs. KC last week; lay the price! |
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07-24-19 | Angels v. Dodgers -180 | 3-2 | Loss | -180 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Dodgers. No need to overthink this one, as I believe the massive talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jaime Barria (3-3, 7.36 ERA), while the home side counters with Ross Stripling (4-3, 3.64). Barria most recently was shelled for ten runs off nine hits with four walks over three innings in a 10-0 loss to the Mariners. Stripling is just 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in five starts since re-joining the rotation in late June, but note that he’s been at his best at home by going 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA thus far. Key Trends: - The Angels are just 12-17 as a road dog this year. - The Dodgers are 36-10 as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: All things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger; play on the Dodgers! |
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07-24-19 | Marlins v. White Sox +105 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago White Sox. Miami evened this series with a 5-1 win on Tuesday, but I think that the home side will bounce back in the finale. The Marlins go with rookie right-hander Zac Gallen (0-2, 3.63 ERA), while the Chi-Sox see Reynaldo Lopez (5-8, 5.76 ERA) toe the slab. Gallen’s been decent, but the sample size is still too small in my opinion (note that this will be Gallen’s first interleague start of his career.) Lopez has “turned the corner” in the second half with back-to-back quality starts since the break, including a 9-2 win over Tampa Bay, allowing two runs over seven innings. Key Trends: - Miami is still only 5-10 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this year. - Chicago is 14-5 (+7.8 units) this season as a home favorite. The verdict: I believe Lopez continues his progression and as mentioned off the top, I’m expecting Gallen to take a step back in this interleague road contest; play on the Sox! |
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07-24-19 | Royals v. Braves -192 | 2-0 | Loss | -192 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. I have no problems laying this larger price on Julio Teheran (5-6, 3.61 ERA) and the hard-hitting home side. The Royals counter with Brad Keller (6-9, 4.18). The Braves definitely won’t be taking anything for granted here either after they let the Royals win the series opener 5-4 on Tuesay, with KC rallying with three runs in the eighth. Keller comes in off a decent out, but note that he’s just 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in vs. the NL. Teheran enters on top form though, having walked only three batters in 17 2/3’s innings while posting a 1.53 ERA this month. Key Trends: - The Royals are just 2-7 in their last nine after a one run victory. - Atlanta is 8-3 in its last 11 interleague home games after allowing five or more runs in a loss in its previous outing. The verdict: I like Teheran to carry over his recent momentum and for the Braves for respond after last night’s “brain fart.” Lay the price with confidence! |
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07-24-19 | Padres v. Mets -148 | 7-2 | Loss | -148 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. The Mets will look to take advantage of this clear mismatch on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Dinelson Lamet (0-2, 5.14 ERA), while the home side counters with the steady Noah Syndergaard (7-4, 4.36). Lamet has struck out 19 over his first three starts back from Tommy John surgery, but he’s also walked six in 14 innings. Key Trends: - San Diego is a poor 20-32 this season vs. teams with losing records. - New York is still 10-4 in its last 14 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Both teams are now essentially out of the playoff race, but I like Syndergaard to buckle down at home here and to get the better of his erratic counterpart; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-24-19 | Rangers -118 v. Mariners | 3-5 | Loss | -118 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Texas Rangers. I think Mike Minor (8-5, 2.86 ERA) and the Rangers will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night vs. Mike Leake (8-8, 4.27) and the Mariners. Both pitchers have been decent this year and each is rumoured to be on the move by the trade deadline. Minor’s already defeated Leake and the M’s twice this season though, while Leake is just 1-3 with a 4.90 ERA in eight lifetime starts vs. the Rangers. Key Trends: - Texas is a perfect 6-0 this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - Seattle is just 5-9 this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Both teams are out of the playoff picture, but Minor is the “correct” call in this matchup in my opinion; lay the short price! |
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07-24-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -131 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. John Means (8-5, 2.95 ERA) has been a bright spot for Baltimore this year. However, I think the rookie will predictably struggle in this difficult interleague road venue. Taylor Clarke (2-3, 6.50) who looked a bit shaky in his first start back from the IL on Friday vs. the Brewers, allowing four runs over four innings. Clarke though has a big opportunity to get back on track here facing the inept Orioles and I believe the rookie will make the most of it. Key Trends: - Note that Baltimore is just 19-43 vs. right-handed starters this year. - Note that Arizona is 12-4 in inter-league contests this year. The verdict: I think that Means takes a major step back here vs. the desperate D-Backs; lay the short price! |
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07-23-19 | Phillies -150 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as I believe the talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying this road price. Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.77 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors, while the home side goes with Matt Boyd (6-8, 4.13). Nola comes in off an outing to forget against the Dodgers, but he’s 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two career starts vs. Detroit. The Phillies continue to fight for a playoff spot as they come in having won five of their last eight. Boyd has allowed between three and five earned runs in his last eight starts and his ERA has gone from 2.85 to 4.13 in the process. Key Trends: - Philadelphia is 12-6 this year as a road favorite in the -100 to -150 range. - Detroit is just 1-14 this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Boyd’s likely on his way out of Detroit after this game and I think his “head” won’t be “in the game” tonight. And that definitely leaves the door open for Nola, who is out to atone for his latest poor effort. All things considered, a very fair price; lay it! |
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07-22-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -220 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. I think that Robbie Ray (8-6, 3.92 ERA) and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot, with the “toothless” Orioles countering with the erratic Aaron Brooks (2-3, 4.69). Ray enters on top form, having won three straight, conceding a combined six runs over 19 innings of work (eight walks and 23 K’s in that span.) Brooks has been used primarily as an “opener” and I think he’ll be on a “short leash” in this difficult National League format/venue tonight as well. Key Trends: - The Orioles are a poor 13-25 this year as a road dog of +150 or higher. - The D-Backs are 11-4 (+8.2 units) in interleague games this year. The verdict: Ray is reportedly on the trading block, so look for the veteran to keep his focus on the field of play tonight; lay the price! |
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07-22-19 | Indians -160 v. Blue Jays | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland’s been the hottest team in the entire league since early June and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here in this favorable matchup. Toronto returns home dejected after going 4-6 on a road trip, including losing 4-3 in ten innings to the Tigers yesterday afternoon. The visitors see Mike Clevinger (3-2, 3.57 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Ryan Borucki (making his season debut.) Clevinger enters off his best start of the year, giving up on run over six innings while also striking out 12 in a win over the Tigers on Wednesday. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 21-10 (+8 units) this year vs. southpaws. - Toronto is just 22-42 (-19.2 units) vs. right-handed starters. The verdict: Clevinger is also 2-0 with a minuscule 1.06 ERA over his last three starts overall and 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA in four career appearances vs. Toronto. Borucki was 4-6 with a 3.87 ERA in 17 starts last year as a rookie. This one has “blowout” written all over it; lay it! |
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07-21-19 | White Sox v. Rays -235 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. No upsets here today as I expect Rays ace Blake Snell (5-7, 4.55 ERA) to get the better of his younger counterpart today. Tampa lost 2-1 in 11 innings yesterday, but I expect the home side to respond here. Snell had a 9.64 ERA in June, but so far in July he’s allowed two earned runs over ten innings, both starts coming against the high-powered Yankees. The White Sox go with Dylan Cease (1-1, 5.73), who makes his third major league starts of his career, most recently getting rocked for six runs over six innings in a loss to the Royals. Key Trends: - Chicago is a terrible 16-28 (-8.1 units) this season in all “day” games. - Tampa is 18-9 this season as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: After yesterday’s loss, look for Tampa to take advantage of this favorable matchup; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-20-19 | Padres v. Cubs -128 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. The Padres have lost six of their last seven and I believe the slide continues on Saturday afternoon. The Cubs are now trending in the other direction, having gone 6-1 since the Mid-Summer Classic. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi (7-4, 3.92 ERA), while the home side sees Jose Quintana (7-7, 4.21) toe the rubber. Lucchesi has made one start vs. the Cubs, giving up three runs off seven hits over five innings. Quintana is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two lifetime starts vs. the Friars. Key Trends: - San Diego is just 7-10 vs. southpaws this season. - Chicago has struggled vs. lefties as well this year (just 7-10), but it’s a sharp 20-6 (+11 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: San Diego has committed nine errors over its last five games and I believe its slide back into mediocrity continues in the sweltering afternoon Chicago heat; lay the short price! |
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07-19-19 | A's v. Twins -128 | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. I think that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors go with Chris Bassitt (6-4, 3.98 ERA) who comes in off a gem, going six scoreless vs. the White Sox on Saturday. For the most part Bassitt’s been as solid as Oakland could have possibly asked for this season, but note that if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 2-2 with a subpar 4.73 ERA. Odorizzi (11-4, 3.06) enters off a gem vs. the Indians on Saturday, giving up one run over six innings in the eventual victory. Key Trends: - Oakland is just 2-7 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +115 to +150 range. - Minnesota is 8-3 in its last 11 as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range. The verdict: Note that Odorizzi has been at his best at home as well this year, going 6-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Lay the price and expect a rout! |
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07-19-19 | Blue Jays -145 v. Tigers | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. Two teams which won’t be in the playoffs collide on Friday night, but I think that Marcus Stroman and the Jays are worth the price of admission. Stroman (5-10, 3.25 ERA) enters off a strong start, giving up three runs while striking out seven over six innings vs. the Yankees on Sunday (note that Stroman’s been at his best on the road this year as well with a 2.94 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.) Detroit sees Jordan Zimmermann (0-6, 7.01) toe the slab and he most recently was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over four innings vs. the Royals on Sunday. Over his last two starts Zimmermann has allowed 14 earned runs spanning 7.1 innings of work. Key Trends: - Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine American League road games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. - Detroit is just 2-6 in its last eight home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. The verdict: Stroman is still being shopped around and I expect him to keep his level of performance high; lay the price! |
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07-18-19 | A's v. Twins -135 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. The A’s Mike Fiers is 9-3 with a 3.61 ERA and he’s been a big reason why his team is doing so well right now. The Twins’ Kyle Gibson is 8-4 with a 4.03 ERA and he’s been a crucial part of his team’s success over the first half. In this particular matchup, i don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Gibson gave up three runs over four innings in a no-decision in his last start vs. the Tribe. Overall though Gibson has been at his best at home this year by going 5-1 with a 3.69 ERA. Fiers went seven scoreless in a victory over the White Sox in his last start. Note that if Fiers has had one clear weakness this year, it’s been his play on the road where he’s a sub-par 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA. Key Trends: - Oakland is just 4-6 in its last ten American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +115 to +135 range. - Minnesota is 7-2 in Gibson’s last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. The verdict: Look for Minnesota to ride Gibson to a solid win and lay this very reasonable price! |
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07-18-19 | Rays v. Yankees -114 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Yankees. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.35 ERA), while the home side counters with JA Happ (7-5, 4.93). Morton gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Orioles in his last start. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Morton, as he’s been superb this year. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. Happ took a loss in Toronto in his last start despite allowing just two runs with five K’s over six innings on Saturday. Key Trends: - Tampa is just 2-7 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +135 range. - New York is 17-10 in its last 27 American League home night games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -120 range. The verdict: Note that Happ has posted a tiny 1.93 ERA vs. the Rays over the last two seasons. Look for Happ to continue his dominance in this series and for the hard-hitting home side to take advantage; lay the price! |
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07-18-19 | Tigers v. Indians -200 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. No upsets here as I expect the hard-hitting home side to take advantage of the toothless visiting side. The visitors go with Matt Boyd (6-7, 3.95 ERA), while the Indians counter with Trevor Bauer (8-7, 3.65). Boyd comes in off a strong outing vs. the Royals on Saturday, allowing four runs over seven innings, but the hard-throwing right-hander still took the loss. Note that Boyd’s been much better at home (3.36 ERA) than on the road (4.83). Bauer took a loss in his last start as well despite striking out 11 and giving up three runs over six innings vs. the Twins on Saturday. Note that Bauer has been at his best at home with a 3-2, 3.16 ERA thus far. Key Trends: - Detroit is just 2-8 in its last eight road games as an underdog in the +175 to +250 range. - Cleveland is 9-3 in its last 12 American League night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -250 range. The verdict: I think Bauer is well worth the price of admission in this match-up; lay it! |
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07-17-19 | Giants v. Rockies -170 | 11-8 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. I think the Rockies at this price at home with the superior starter on the hill are well worth the admission. The visitors turn to Shaun Anderson (3-2, 4.48 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Note that Anderson has a 4.81 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Jon Gray (9-6, 3.83) who gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Friday. Overall Gray has a 121:42 K:BB and he’s been at his best at home, going 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA. Key Trends: - The Giants are just 8-12 in their last 20 road games as an underdog in the +150 to +165 range. - The Rockies 7-2 in their last nine games at home with Gray on the mound and with a money line in the -165 to -185 range. The verdict: Look for Anderson to take a step back in this difficult road venue and for the veteran Gray to continue his consistent run at Coors this year; lay the short price! |
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07-17-19 | Reds v. Cubs -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I think the home side will find a way to get the job done in this one once it’s all said and done. The visitors turn to Sonny Gray (5-5, 3.42 ERA), who gave up one run off five hits and three walks in a no-decision to the Rockies on Friday. Gray has been decent overall, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play in all “day” games this year, going just 1-4 with a 4.55 ERA in such instances. Yu Darvish (2-4, 4.72) comes in off his best start in over a calendar year, going six shutout innings, allowing two hits, one walk and eight K’s in an unfortunate no-decision to the Pirates in his last outing. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 4-7 in its last 11 National League “day” games as an underdog in the +125 to +150 range. - The Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -145 range. The verdict: I like Darvish to continue his recent progression and I expect Gray to take a step back in this “day” game; lay the short price! |
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07-16-19 | Mariners +160 v. A's | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 20 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Seattle Mariners. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog in this one. Oakland looks poised for a classic letdown after sweeping the White Sox over the weekend. The Mariners’ Marco Gonzales (10-7, 4.24 ERA) is 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts vs. the A’s this year and he’s 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA in seven career appearances vs. them. Overall Gonzales is 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA over his last six starts as well. A’s starter Daniel Mengden (4-1, 4.73 ERA) is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA in six career appearances vs. the M’s. Key Trends: - Seattle is already 3-1 (+2.4 units) this year after being swept on the road in a three game series by a division rival. - Oakland is a poor 9-14 (-6.7 units) this season after a win by two runs or less. The verdict: I think Gonzales has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one considering his recent form. Play on Seattle! |
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07-15-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -127 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Both Joe Musgrove (6-7, 4.15 ERA) of the Pirates and Miles Mikolas (5-9, 4.53) of the Cardinals have enjoyed incredible success in their careers, but so far 2019 has not been one of those campaigns for either beleaguer hurler. These starters are a “wash” today. Neither has any momentum. The Pirates have no momentum either after getting swept in Chicago over the weekend. I think the difference comes in the stats/numbers/trends. Key Trends: - As note that Pittsburgh is just 18-27 as a road dog this year. - Also note that St. Louis is 14-7 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I like St. Louis to take advantage of home field; lay the short price! |
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07-15-19 | Reds v. Cubs -120 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I played on the Cubs in their three-game series sweep of the Pirates in every contest and I believe that the home side keeps the good times rolling here. Cincinnati goes with ace Luis Castillo (8-3, 2.29 ERA), while the visitors counter with Kyle Hendricks (7-7, 3.49). Hendricks is 6-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Reds. Castillo is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA in eight career starts vs. Chicago. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is a poor 10-20 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Chicago is a great 18-5 (+10.4 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Additionally note that Hendricks is a “lights out” 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three meetings vs. the Reds. Chicago won’t be taking anything for granted here after losing six of nine in the season series to this point. All things considered, a great price on a hot team; lay it! |
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07-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -184 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Boston Red Sox. This is a big game and a big series for Boston, which plays its next 21 games vs. AL East foes. The home side sends Rick Porcello (6-7, 5.33 ERA) to toe the slab, while the visitors go with Trent Thornton (3-6, 4.85). Both starters have struggled against their respective opponent, so I’m calling them a “wash.” The difference comes in the numbers/stats/trends. Key Trends: - As note that Toronto is just 6-18 (-6.7 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or more. - Additionally note that Boston is 31-15 vs. clubs with losing records this season. The verdict: Toronto’s offense has been terrible of late, as it was held to two runs or fewer for the fifth tim in its last six games in yesterday’s 4-2 loss in New York. Look for the Red Sox to get their big home stand started off on the “right foot!” |
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07-15-19 | Tigers v. Indians -161 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland has won seven of its last ten and I look for it to keep the good times rolling here vs. the lowly Tigers. Detroit hands the ball to Daniel Norris (2-8, 4.96 ERA) who gave up six runs to the Tribe back on June 23rd and who owns a 4.37 ERA vs. them in nine career appearances. Norris most recently was rocked for six runs vs. the White Sox on July 3rd to fall to 0-6 during a brutal ten-start winless streak. The home side counters with Adam Plutko (3-1, 4.95) who enters off a poor start vs. the Orioles, allowing five runs over five innings, but who is a sharp 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA in five career appearances vs. Detroit. Key Trends: - Detroit is just 12-33 (-15.2 units) this year in all “night” games. - Cleveland is 16-8 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season. The verdict: Look for Plutko to easily get the better of his volatile counterpart as Cleveland continues its torrid streak at home; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | Mariners v. Angels -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. The visitors hand the ball to shaky Yusei Kikuchi (4-6, 4.94 ERA) who got off to decent start in the Majors, but who has since regressed significantly. Kikuchi has been destroyed by the Angels this year as well, going 1-2 with a 12.34 ERA. The home side counters with Jose Suarez (2-1, 5.40) who is getting a shot in the rotation out of necessity because of Tyler Skaggs death (Suarez faced the M’s on june 2nd and gave up three runs over six innings in a victory, before then losing his second start vs. them, allowing two runs over five innings.) Key Trends: - Seattle is a terrible 14-25 (-5.2 units) this year as a road underdog. - LA is a fantastic 21-12 (+6.3 units) this season vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: I like Suarez to get the better of his “gas can” counterpart; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | White Sox v. A's -207 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Oakland Athletics. The A’s have rolled to victories in the first two games of this series and I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas in the finale as well. The visitors hand the ball to Reynaldo Lopez (4-8, 6.34 ERA), while the home side counters with Brett Anderson (9-5, 3.86). Lopez has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, while Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the A’s. Key Trends: - Chicago is a a terrible 16-25 (-5.1 units) this season in all “day” games. - Oakland is 19-19 (+4.3 units) as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: Lay the price and expect Anderson to deliver the goods with ease! |
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07-14-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -165 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I’ve played on the Cubs in each of the last two games and I believe they’re going to produce the series sweep this afternoon. The home side has to be feeling confident it can keep the good times rolling by handing the ball to Jose Quintana (6-7, 4.19 ERA) who won his final two games before the break (Quintana has dominated the Pirates throughout his career as well, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA with 46 K’s and six walks spanning 42 frames opposed). The now struggling visiting side counters with Trevor Williams (3-2, 4.54) who is 3-4 with a 4.25 ERA in nine games vs. Chicago with 19 walks and 30 K’s over 42 1/3’s innings of work. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 9-16 this season as a +150 or higher underdog. - Chicago is 16-5 this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I think that Quintana could/should easily be a much bigger favorite in this spot; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | Mets -170 v. Marlins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. It’s a big game for the Mets, as they look to start the second half off with a road series win, which will be their first in three months. New York has to be feeling confident as well in handing the ball to Jacob deGrom (4-7, 3.27 ERA) who has posted a tiny 2.68 ERA over his last seven starts (61 K’s and seven walks.) The home side counters with Sandy Alcantara (4-8, 3.82) who has been hit or miss this year and who I think is in the wrong place at the wrong time today. Key Trends: - New York is 24-15 in its last 39 as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - Miami is just 5-17 as a home dog in the +125 to +200 range this year. The verdict: I like the All Star deGrom to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -114 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia battles back here in my opinion to avoid the series sweep. Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.67 ERA) gets the call for the home side, while the Nationals counter with Anibal Sanchez (5-6, 3.66). Neither starter has been particularly impressive this season and each has struggled against his respective opponent today. In my opinion the starters a “wash” and the difference comes in the numbers/trends/stats and on the home side’s desperation levels. Key Trends: - Washington is still just 23-24 (-5.4 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. - Philadelphia is 27-15 as a home favorite still this year. The verdict: After winning 12 of their last 14 and the first two of this series, I think the Nationals finally have a letdown here and I look for the desperate Phillies to take advantage. Play on Philadelphia! |
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07-13-19 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -114 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals. I think we’re getting a great price on the superior starter in this one. The Cards will be hungry to bounce back after last night’s 4-2 series opening loss. Arizona’s Merrill Kelly (7-8, 4.03 ERA) has been “hit or miss” this year and while he’s been decent of late, I think he’s in the “wrong place” at the “wrong time” tonight. The home side counters with Dakota Hudson (7-4, 3.51) who has made eight straight quality starts. Key Trends: - Arizona is already just 2-4 this year after four or more consecutive victories. - St. Louis is already 6-3 this season after three or more consecutive losses. The verdict: After four straight wins, I think that the D-Backs finally have a letdown here. And after three straight losses, I expect the Cardinals to lay everything on the line and play with a sense of desperation. Lay the short price! |
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07-13-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -171 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Cubs. I had a play on the Cubs last night and I think they’ll carry over their momentum from the victory here in what sets up to be another favorable matchup for them on the mound. The visitors go with Jordan Lyles (5-5, 4.36 ERA), while the home side counters with Jon Lester (8-6, 3.72). Lester is 9-6 with a 3.12 ERA in 19 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Lester is also 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA at home this year. Lyles is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. Chicago. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 9-16 as a +150 or higher dog this season. - Chicago is 26-13 as a home favorite this year. The verdict: I expect Lester to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-12-19 | Braves -114 v. Padres | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. I think this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 3.60 ERA), while the home side goes with Dinelson Lamet (0-1, 5.40.) The Padres closed the first half with three straight road wins vs. the Dodgers and I think that a classic “letdown” to open the second is imminent. Keuchel has looked decent since coming to Atlanta, allowing 11 runs over 25 innings with 12 K’s (note that Keuchel is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA with seven K’s over 14 innings vs. the Friars.) Lamet is making his second start back after having Tommy John surgery last year. Key Trends: - Atlanta is 15-6 (+8.1 units) this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher. - San Diego is just 7-8 this season vs. southpaws. The verdict: Note that the Padres are only 23-24 at Petco this year as well. Look for Keuchel to easily get the better of his still untested counterpart and lay this price with confidence! |
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07-12-19 | Twins v. Indians -115 | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland comes in as the “hungrier” team, as it still sits behind Minnesota in the standings. But the Tribe won 21 of their last 29 to close the first half and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson (8-4, 4.09 ERA), while the home side counters with Mike Clevinger (2-2, 4.44). Gibson is 3-9 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 18 starts vs. Cleveland, while Clevinger is 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in ten starts vs. Minnesota. Key Trends: - Minnesota is just 2-5 (-2.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Cleveland is 18-12 (+6.1 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: I think the Twins take a step back in the second half and I expect the Indians to carry over their recent momentum. All things considered, a very fair price on the home side; lay it! |
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07-12-19 | Rays v. Orioles +144 | 16-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Orioles. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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07-12-19 | Nationals -123 v. Phillies | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. I think we’re getting great value on the superior pitcher. The Nationals hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (10-4, 3.64 ERA), while the home side counters with Nick Pivetta (4-3, 5.84). Washington comes in as the hottest team in the league, having gone 28-11 since May 24th. The Phillies closed the first half by going just 14-21. Strasburg is 12-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 25 career starts vs. Philadelphia, while Pivetta is 0-2 with a 7.33 ERA over his last four outings overall and 1-6 with a 10.80 ERA in nine career appearances vs. Washington. Key Trends: - Washington is 20-10 (+4.3 units) already this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Philadelphia is just 3-11 (-6.5 units) already this season as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Starsburg at this price and in this match-up is a “steal” in my opinion. Play on the Nationals! |
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07-12-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -150 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. Both the Pirates’ Chris Archer (3-6, 5.49 ERA) and the Cubs’ Yu Darvish (2-4, 5.01) have been terrible this season. Each has struggled against their respective opponents as well. It was only three years ago that each of these guys was an All Star as well. Regardless, for this contest I’m calling these “gas cans” a “wash.” The difference comes in the stats/numbers/trends. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is a horrible 65-100 (-8.7 units) the L2 years as a road dog. - Chicago is 15-5 (+7.4 units) already this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. The verdict: I think the Cubs send an early message to the rest of the division with a big night at the plate to open the second half. Lay the price! |
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07-07-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -152 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -152 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Dodgers. I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Lucchesi (6-4, 3.91 ERA), while the Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling (3-2, 3.45.) After consecutive defeats to the Friars, I expect the Dodgers to lay everything on the line here as they look to close the first half on a winning note. Note that in 13 appearances vs. the Padres, Stripling owns a tiny 2.61 ERA. Lucchesi on the other hand is 0-3 with a ballooned 7.64 ERA in four lifetime starts vs. the Dodgers. Key Trends: - San Diego is still just 18-21 (-5.1 units) this year vs. the division. - LA is still 10-3 (+6 units) this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: I look for Stripling to come in focused on the task at hand; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-07-19 | Phillies -102 v. Mets | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. This should be a highly entertaining finale between two teams hungry for a win. However, I think that Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola (7-2, 3.89 ERA) offers great value at this price. The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (6-5, 4.42). Wheeler gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Yanks in his last outing, while Nola went eight scoreless vs. the Braves in a 2-0 victory on Tuesday. Key Trends: - Philadelphia is 20-9 (+14.1 units) in its last 29 off a one run loss vs. a division rival. - New York is just 4-9 (-5.6 units) this season following a one run victory. The verdict: Look for Nola to build off his latest gem and look for Philadelphia to bounce back after last night’s 6-5 setback! |
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07-06-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Dodgers. Chris Paddack (5-4, 3.05 ERA) has been great for San Diego and while the Padres rallied to even this four-game series at 1-1 last night, I think the rookie hurler struggles on the road vs. this difficult opponent (note that Paddack faced the Dodgers back on May 14th and he was shelled for six runs over four innings). LA sees Kenta Maeda (7-4, 3.78) toe the slab tonight; Maeda is 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 15 appearances vs. the Friars. Key Trends: - San Diego is already a terrible 7-9 (-4 units) this year after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. - LA is a terrific 10-2 (+7.6 units) this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: I think Paddack struggles in the bright lights of Chavez Ravine; lay the price! |
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07-06-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -106 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Fran Giants. I like the home side to bounce back here after last night’s 9-4 series opening setback. The Giants turn to Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 4.02 ERA) who comes in on top form, off back-to-back victories over Colorado an Arizona, the veteran has conceded just three runs off seven hits over his last 13 innings, while also striking out 20. The visitors go with Miles Mikolas (5-8, 4.34) who has looked much better of late after a shaky start to the campaign, but who I believe is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Key Trends: - St. Louis is just 8-17 (-7.4 units) as a road underdog of +100 or higher. - San Francisco is 9-5 in its last 14 as a favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: I think Bumgarner continues his torrid stretch to end the first half; lay the short price! |
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07-06-19 | Marlins v. Braves -184 | 5-4 | Loss | -184 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. Miami has lost five straight coming into this final series before the All Star break. Braves’ starter Max Fried, who is 9-3 with a 4.04 ERA gets the nod for the home side. Fried has actually struggled vs. the Marlins over three career starts, posting a 5.14 ERA, but Miami has struggled at the plate of late, as evidenced by last night’s 1-0 setback. Key Trends: - Atlanta is 9-1 vs. Miami this year. - The Fish have scored more than two runs in only three of the ten in the series this year. The verdict: Miami starter Caleb Smith hasn’t pitched since June 6th because of a hip issue. Lay the price and expect Fried to get back on track! |
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07-06-19 | Yankees v. Rays -138 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. Enough is enough! After six straight losses in this series, I like the Rays to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. So far New York is 9-2 in this season series after last night’s 8-4 win. In fact New York has taken the first two games of this series by the identical score: "There's a lot of baseball left," TB manager Kevin Cash assessed after last night’s setback. "We just got to play better against this team. You take out what we've done against the Yankees, I think we're all really thrilled, but you can't do that. We'd certainly like to feel better about ourselves going into the break." Rays’ starter Blake Snell has performed poorly over the first half of the season, but he comes in off his best start of the season, giving up two runs over six innings in a 6-2 win over the Rangers on Sunday. Yanks starter CC Sabathia throws for the first time since June 24th. Key Trends: - New York is a poor 2-5 (-2.4 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - The Rays are still 21-16 this season following a loss. The verdict: I think Snell closes the first half with a gem and I expect the desperate home side to provide their ace with just enough support. Lay the short price! |
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07-05-19 | A's -120 v. Mariners | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Oakland A’s. I think the A’s Brett Anderson (8-5, 3.92 ERA) is the correct call in this matchup vs. the Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 5.12). Oakland has won 12 of its last 16 to move into second place, which it capped off with a 7-2 win over the Twins on Thursday (I unfortunately had the Twins in that one, and while I’m never one to “flip flop” from one team to the next, baseball is the one sport in which each contest has to be looked at individually, because of the starting pitching. And that’s definitely the case here.) Seattle on the other hand has lost six of its last seven. Key Trends: - Anderson went eight scoreless in a 4-0 win over the Angels in his last start and he’s 9-5 with a 2.34 ERA in 21 career appearances vs. the M’s. - Kikuchi has faced Oakland four times and he’s 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in those outings. The verdict: All things considered, I think that this line could/should in fact be much larger. Play on Oakland! |
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07-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates +100 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Inept offense. The Brewers have a slim lead in the division, but they’ve sure been struggling down the stretch; note that the offense has been shutout in back-to-back games and I don’t think things get any easier facing the Pirates’ Steven Brault, who is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA since joining the rotation permanently in late May. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is just 19-24 (-5.6 units) on the road this year. - Pittsburgh is 2-0 (+3.1 units) this year following a loss by eight runs or more to a division rival (just fell 11-3 to the Cubs.) The verdict: Brewers’ starter Zach Davies has had success vs. Pittsburgh in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Play on the home side! |
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07-04-19 | Twins -131 v. A's | 2-7 | Loss | -131 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. Jose Berrios (8-4, 2.89 ERA) hasn’t been at his best over his last couple starts, but he just found out that he’ll be replacing teammate Jake Odorrizi in the upcoming All Star Game this weekend. With a chance to erase his scuffling stretch with one last winning effort before the break, I expect Berrios to make the most of this favorable match. And that’s because his counterpart is confirmed “gas can” Tanner Anderson (0-3, 7.13) who has been crushed for ten runs off 15 hits over his last six innings of work. Key Trends: - Minnesota is a red hot 11-3 (+6.6 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Oakland is a terrible 1-4 (-2.4 units) this season as a home underdog of +125 or higher. The verdict: Look for Berrios to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart; lay it! |
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07-04-19 | Brewers -125 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (10-2, 3.79 ERA), while the Reds go with Luis Castillo (7-3, 2.47). The Brewers lost 3-0 yesterday and they’ve now lost ten of their last 16, just 4.5 games ahead of the last-place Reds. Castillo is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Brewers. Woodruff though enters on top form as he posted his second straight win on Saturday by allowing one run off six hits spanning eight frames of work in a victory over the Pirates. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is still 21-10 (+10.4 units) this year in all day games. - Cincinnati is just 12-24 (-11.8 units) this season in all day games. The verdict: The Brewers only have a 4.5 game lead over the last placed Reds and after yesterday’s humbling defeat, I expect them to come in focused on the task at hand vs. the struggling Castillo. Lay the short price! |
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07-03-19 | Giants v. Padres -137 | 7-5 | Loss | -137 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. I had a big play on the Padres last night and I’m stunned at how poorly Matt Strahm performed. With revenge fresh on their minds though, I expect the Padres to bounce back here. San Diego is now one game under .500 with four games to go before the All Star break. San Diego has to play its next four vs. the Dodgers as well, putting added emphasis onto tonight’s contest. The Friars should be pumped up as well after back-to-back humbling defeats to the Giants (13-2, 10-4. Can anyone say “letdown spot” for San Fran?!) SD goes with Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.66 ERA), while the Giants go with Shaun Anderson (3-2, 3.86). Quantrill has made ten major league appearances and has a 1.36 WHIP and a .268 opponents batting average, allowing 19 runs with 12 walks and 32 K’s over 36 2/3’s innings of work. Anderson has been sharp in his limited time, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Key Trends: - San Francisco is a terrible 1-5 (-3 units) already this season after having won four of its last five games. - San Diego is 13-8 (+3.9 units) this year after having lost three of its last four games. The verdict: I think San Fran’s letdown is imminent; lay the short price! |
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07-03-19 | Indians -154 v. Royals | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians -157 8:15 EST Mike Clevinger (1-2, 5.89 ERA) has been injured most of the season and he returned just last week and gave up the most runs in his career (seven earned runs over just 1 2/3’s innings vs. the Orioles.) Despite that though, I think he’ll bounce back here with a much better effort and at the very least, match Danny Duffy (3-4, 4.43) inning for inning. Cleveland won 9-5 last night and it’s now 18-9 since June. Also note that Clevinger is 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA lifetime vs. KC. Duffy is a downright terrible 2-10 with a 5.68 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. the Tribe. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine road games after scoring nine or more runs in its previous contest. - Kansas City is a brutal 15-31 (-7.2 units) vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, lay the price on the hot hitting road team! |
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07-02-19 | Giants v. Padres -151 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -151 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres The Giants scored the upset in last night’s opener, but I expect the home side to respond in a big way on Tuesday. The Padres go with Matt Strahm (3-6, 4.94 ERA), while the visitors go with Tyler Beede (1-3, 6.45). Strahm struggled mightily in four June starts before hitting the DL for 11 days. Previous to his injury Strahm had posted a 3.21 ERA at the end of May. His first start back from injury was decent, allowing four runs over seven innings vs. the Orioles: "The three starts (before Baltimore) wasn't me out there," Strahm said. "I felt good. I was attacking the zone and eliminated the walks." Strahm’s faced the Giants twice and given up three runs and two walks with 12 K’s spanning eight innings of work. Beede has allowed a whopping 42 hits and 28 walks in just 37 2/3’s frames of work this year. Yes Strahm has issues, but nothing like Beede’s problems. Key Trends: - San Francisco is just 9-17 this year vs. southpaws. - San Diego is 13-8 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: The Padres come in hungry after getting spanked last night and they couldn’t have asked for a more favorable matchup. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, so lay this mid sized price with confidence! |
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06-30-19 | Pirates v. Brewers -152 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. I had a play on the Brewers and yesterday and they prevailed 3-1. I expect a more lop-sided victory here today though. The home side hands the ball to Zach Davies (7-2, 3.34 ERA), while the visitors counter with Steven Brault (3-1, 4.50). Davies is just 2-2 with a 6.20 ERA in June, but I like the veteran to settle down here in this favorable spot. Brault is 2-0 since joining the rotation, but I think he’ll take a step back here in this difficult road venue. Key Trends: - Note that despite his recent “up-tick” in play, Brault is still only 1-2 with a 4.25 ERA in six starts vs. the Brewers. The verdict: The Pirates had won seven of eight before yesterday’s loss and I think this sets up as a prime “letdown” spot. Milwaukee won’t be taking anything for granted here, and neither will Davies. I like the home side and Davies to build off yesterday’s victory. Lay it! |
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06-29-19 | Cardinals v. Padres -110 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. A couple of hot rookies square off in this one, making home field the deciding factor in this one in my opinion. Dakota Hudson (6-3, 3.36 ERA) of the Cards goes up against Chris Paddack (4-4, 3.18) of the Padres. Key Trends: - The biggest stat/trend tonight is that Paddack has faced the Cardinals already once this year, holding them to one unearned run on one hit and four walks with four K’s over four innings. Hudson has never faced the Friars. The verdict: I like Paddack at home and think we’re getting an unbelievable price on him tonight. Lay it! |
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06-29-19 | Pirates v. Brewers -190 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. I had a play on the Brewers last night and they’d unfortunately come up short. I think the home side bounces bak here though in this favorable matchup on the mound. Brandon Woodruff (9-2, 4.01 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and his team has won 13 of the last 16 games that he’s appeared in. Woodruff is 6-1 in the past two months alone and he’s also hitting .324 at the plate in 37 at bats. Jordan Lyles (5-3, 3.64) gets the call for Milwaukee; he was 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA over his first nine starts this season. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is still just 2-5 (-2 units) this year off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. - Milwaukee is 25-7 (+17.8 units) in its last 32 off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. The verdict: After winning seven of their past eight, all signs finally point to a letdown here in my opinion for the overachieving visiting side. And after losing eight of their last 11, I look for the Brewers to rally behind Woodruff for the victory on Saturday night; lay the price! |
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06-28-19 | Pirates v. Brewers -145 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers won’t be taking the Pirates for granted here. Milwaukee is 43-38 and second place in the division, but Pittsburgh is 38-41 in fourth, just five games back. Milwaukee is also just 5-10 since sweeping the Pirates here three weeks ago. Pittsburgh’s 8-7 since then, including a highly satisfying 10-0 victory at Houston just last night. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Pirates send Chris Archer (3-6, 5.56 ERA) to the hill, while the home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (3-8, 5.88). These starters are a “wash,” but the difference comes in the stats/trends. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is still just 15-25 vs. teams with winning records this year. - Milwaukee is still 20-12 vs. the division. The verdict: It’s a classic “letdown” spot for Pittsburgh after its lop-sided win last night and I expect the Brewers to make the most of it. Lay the price! |
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06-28-19 | Indians v. Orioles +160 | 0-13 | Win | 160 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. The Indians’ go with Mike Clevinger (1-1, 2.70 ERA) tonight and he returns from the IL after missing a start with a sprained ankle, after just coming back from a back issue which had him benched for more than two months. The home side goes with John Means (6-4, 2.67) who also missed his last turn in the rotation as a cautionary measure because of a tender shoulder. Key Trend: - Cleveland is just 6-7 (-4 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I think the door is open for the hungry home side to steal the opener of this four game series as Clevinger’s injury issues are a major concern. I like Means to take advantage of this situation. A great spot bet on Baltimore Friday night! |
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06-27-19 | A's v. Angels -152 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. Both teams come in hot after sweeping two game interleague series from their respective opponents. Tanner Anderson (0-2, 4.20 ERA) though is in over his head here in my opinion in this difficult road venue. Anderson gave up three runs over four innings in a 5-3 loss to the Rays on Friday, while Angels’ starter Griffin Canning (2-4, 3.88) will face the A’s for a third time this month. He’s had one good start and one poor one vs. them so far, but I think the rookie takes advantage of familiar surroundings tonight. Key Trends: - Oakland is already just 9-12 (-4.6 units) after a win by two runs or less. - LA is 9-5 as a -150 favorite or higher this season. The verdict: Expect Canning to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on LA! |
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06-27-19 | Dodgers -172 v. Rockies | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 31 h 60 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Dodgers. Despite Coors Field being the great equalizer for pitchers, I still think that the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying this larger price on the road favorite. The visitors go with Walker Buehler (8-1, 2.96 ERA), while the home side counters with Peter Lambert (2-0, 5.85). Buehler has dominated this matchup throughout his career, going 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 appearances vs. the Rockies. Lambert allowed three runs over five innings vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. Key Trends: - LA is 18-5 (+7.6 units) as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range this season. - Colorado is 4-10 (-4.9 units) in its last 14 as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: I like Buehler to continue his domination in this favorable matchup; lay the price! |
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06-27-19 | Mets v. Phillies -148 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. I had a play on the Phillies last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. The Mets hand the ball to Zach Wheeler (6-5, 4.69 ERA), while the home side counters with Aaron Nola (6-2, 4.55). Philadelphia now has a chance to sweep this four game series after erasing a 4-0 deficit to win late last night. Nola has been hit or miss this year, but he comes in with momentum and confidence as well after posting ten K’s and giving up two runs over eight innings in an unfortunate 2-1 loss to the Fish last time out. Wheeler comes in off a decent outing as well vs. the Cubs, allowing one run over seven innings, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Key Trends: - New York is now just 2-14 (-11 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is now 18-8 (+6.8 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I like Nola over Wheeler here; all things considered a very fair price on a very hot home team. Lay it! |
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06-26-19 | Mets v. Phillies -129 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia has won the first two games of this four game series and with a chance to clinch it tonight, I look for the hungry home side to deliver a third straight victory. Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.54 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and while he was rocked by the Nationals’ in his last start, he’s still 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts since rejoining the rotation. The Phillies have hit eight home runs over the last two games, which doesn’t bode well for Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.75) and the Mets’ bullpen, which has posted an atrocious 7.44 ERA in the month of June. Vargas comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing four runs over four innings. Key Trends: - New York is now a terrible 2-13 (-10 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is now 17-8 this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to carry over on Wednesday night; lay the price! |
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06-25-19 | Reds v. Angels -145 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 11 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. The Reds enter this two-game interleague series having lost two straight, while the Angels return home off a 6-5 road trip. LA hands the ball to Andrew Heaney (0-1, 5.68 ERA), who missed the first two months of the year. The struggling visitors go with Tyler Mahle (2-7, 4.17) who has been hit or miss this season, especially on the road where he’s 0-6 with a 5.01 ERA. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is interestingly just 1-5 (-4.3 units) this season after two consecutive losses by two runs or less to a division rival. - LA is 9-5 as a -150 favorite or higher this season. The verdict: No real advantage on the mound, but the Angels’ benefit from the home field; lay the price with confidence! |
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06-25-19 | Rays v. Twins -104 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. The Rays Blake Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) won the Cy Young award last year, but he’s been terrible this season. The home side hands the ball to Kyle Gibson (7-4, 4.18). Both teams had Monday off and each enters hungry for victories after scuffling stretches. Both starters were hit hard in their last outings and each has struggled against their respective opponent in the past. The difference comes in the numbers/trends today. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay is just 14-16 (-4.7 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. - Minnesota is 29-17 (+11.1 units) in night games this year. - The Twins are 11-7 (+3.1 units) vs. southpaws this season. The verdict: Snell’s been a disaster this season. I absolutely believe that Gibson at home is the correct call in this matchup. All things considered, this is a great price! |
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06-25-19 | Royals v. Indians -205 | 8-6 | Loss | -205 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. After a rain delay last night the Indians bounced back to take the series opener with the lowly Royals and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in this favorable matchup on the mound. I had a play on the Tribe in that one, part of my 6-1 Monday card. Cleveland has gone 15-6 in June thus far and it hands the ball to Shane Bieber (6-3, 3.86 ERA), who gave up two runs with eight K’s over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Rangers on Thursday. The visitors go with Glenn Sparkman (2-3, 3.62) who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the Twins on Thursday. Key Trends: - Note though that the Royals are a terrible 6-13 this season as a road dog of +150 or higher. - Additionally note that Cleveland is 8-2 this year as a favorite of -200 or higher. The verdict: Sparkman’s been decent, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time vs. the surging Indians. Lay the price! |
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06-25-19 | Mets v. Phillies -148 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies blew out the Mets yesterday and I like the home side to duplicate the effort with another blowout performance here as well. Philadelphia won’t be taking anything for granted here after having previously lost seven in a row. The home side goes with Jake Arrieta (6-6, 4.12 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits over six innings vs. the Nationals on Wednesday. The visitors counter with Will Lockett, who was called up from Triple A to replace the injured Noah Syndergaard (Lockett gave up five runs off six hits over two innings in a loss to the Cubs.) Key Trends: - New York now just 2-12 (-9 units) this season as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is now 16-8 (+4.8 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I like Arrieta to easily out duel his over-matched counterpart and I look for the Phillies to build off yesterday’s break out performance at the plate. Lay the price! |
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06-24-19 | Rockies -130 v. Giants | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Jon Gray (7-5, 4.18 ERA) gets the call for the Rockies and he’ll have a big opportunity to pad his win/loss record here vs. Giants’ volatile starter Drew Pomeranz (2-7, 7.09). Pomeranz has allowed four or more runs in five of his last ten starts, including seven in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. Colorado has struggled vs. Pomeranz in the past, but that was then and this is now. Colorado comes in focused on the task at hand after getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend. Key Trends: - Colorado is 15-5 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - San Fran is just 4-6 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: I like Gray to easily out duel the “gas can” Pomeranz. Lay the short price! |
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06-24-19 | Braves v. Cubs -115 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are the “hungrier” team here after dropping eight of their last 13. Atlanta comes in complacent after winning 13 of its last 16, including overcoming a four-run deficit to win 4-3 in ten-innings vs. the Nationals on Sunday. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Julio Teheran (5-5, 3.40 ERA) and Jon Lester (6-5, 4.13) are a “wash,” I simply feel that this sets up as a letdown spot for the Braves, while the Cubs clearly can’t take anything for granted after their scuffling stretch. Key Trends: - Atlanta is just 7-9 this year as a road underdog. - Chicago is 23-12 as a home favorite this season. The verdict: All things considered a great price on the hungry home side. Lay it! |
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