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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-25-16 | Vikings v. Panthers -7 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We swallowed the point last week with the Panthers over the 49ers and it turned out pretty well for us with Carolina winning 46-27 as a 13-point chalk. The Panthers dominated that game with +10 first downs, 430 yards of total O and a +12 minute time of possession edge. Now the Panthers should be focused on a Minnesota team that is 2-0 and the defending NFC North Champs. But we're not sold on the Vikings and have found some holes or chinks in their armor. They stand 2-0 with wins over the Tennessee Titans who had just 3 wins last year and a Green Bay team that is just 6-8 SU their last 14 games dating back to last season. In two games this year the Vikings have less than 100 total yards of rushing and are now without RB Adrian Peterson for the year. Minnesota was outgained in the opener by the Titans and barely outgained the Packers last week in their grand opening of their new stadium. Carolina has one of the best offenses in the NFL and have way too many great statistical rankings to list here (OK, we'll give a few: #2 in 3rd down conversions, 1st scoring 33PPG, 5th points per play, 3rd yards per game at 431). While the Vikings are one dimensional offensively right now and over-rated defensively based on the fact they've benefitted from 6 turnovers in the first two games of the season. In terms of 'O' the Vikes are 28th worst in yards per game at 292, 26th in yards per play, last in rushing and 17th in scoring offense at 21PPG. Carolina has won 14 straight home games and are 11-5 their last 16 as a home chalk. Lay the points with the Panthers. |
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09-24-16 | Washington -12 v. Arizona | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -112 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington (-) over Arizona, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET We’ll gladly fade the rookie QB Carson Wentz making the first road start of his career AND on Monday Night! Wentz looked solid last week in the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field. And let’s not forget they were facing the hapless Cleveland Browns who some experts predict will be the worst NFL team in years. We were actually on Cleveland last week and if they can’t show up and play well (they didn’t) against an average team with a rookie QB, we agree the Browns are now officially in big trouble. Back to this game…Chicago battled Houston, a playoff team from last year, fairly well last week on the road. The Bears led entering the 4th quarter before falling 23-14. That loss makes this a huge home game for them especially with another road game on deck @ Dallas next week. Despite the loss last week, head coach John Fox has proven he can turn teams around quickly and we expect Chicago to be much improved. Fox took over Carolina in 2002 and went 7-9 his first year followed up by 11-5 in year 2. He then took over Denver in 2011 and went just 8-8 but followed that up with a 13-3 mark in his second season. It’s now his 2nd season in Chicago. Versus a rookie coach and rookie QB we look for Fox and the Bears to pick up a must win at home on Monday night. Lay it. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 94 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -13 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re not into laying huge numbers in the NFL very often, however if there was ever a spot to do it, this is it and we will. The Panthers obviously have Super Bowl aspirations and with their opening week loss @ Denver, they can’t afford to lose this one. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this game as well having played on their opener on Thursday. San Fran, on the other hand, had to play on Monday night and looked very good in their 28-0 win. Now on a short week they have to travel to the east coast to face one of the top teams in the NFL. We saw a similar situation last year when the Niners opened on Monday night with a home win over Minnesota and then had to travel to Pittsburgh in week 2. The result of that game? Steelers 43, Niners 18. The San Francisco defense looked good shutting down the Rams horrendous offense. It will be a different story this week facing a Carolina offense that led the league in scoring last year at 31 PPG. Offensively, the Niners have one of the weakest passing attacks in the NFL behind QB Gabbert. They must run the ball well to be successful. They did just that vs the Rams but now face a rested and angry Carolina defense that didn’t play well in week 1 with Denver running the ball very well. That’s the same Panther defense that allowed only 86 YPG rushing last year (4th in the NFL) so you can bet they’ll be ready here. If SF gets down big, which we predict they will, they have very little “come back” ability. This game has 28-7 or 35-10 written all over it. Carolina in a blowout. |
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09-18-16 | Saints +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +4.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re surprised to see the Giants as such a hefty favorite here. We were on the GMen last week vs the Cowboys and got a push, however we weren’t fairly underwhelmed with their performance. They were playing a Dallas team starting a rookie QB and needed a late TD (6:00 minutes remaining) to get a 1-point win. On top of that the Giants had fewer first downs and less yardage. Not very impressive. Now off an important division win we can see this one as not being quite as important as it is to the Saints. That’s because New Orleans lost at home 35-34 to the Raiders who scored late and went for 2 to get the win. The Saints blew a 14 point 3rd quarter lead but had more first downs and outgained Oakland. Drew Brees was fantastic throwing for 423 yards and 4 TD’s. We expect him to have a huge day against a New York defense that allowed rookie Dak Prescott to throw for 227 yards last week. This one is probably going to be a shootout with the total set a 53. Even if New Orleans gets behind, they are not out of this one with their potent offense. Their “back door ability” if they do get behind has to be taken into account as well. The Giants haven’t had a great home field advantage as they’ve won only 4 of their last 13 games here. We look for this one to go to the wire and we’ll grab the generous points. |
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09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Rotation #174 - 10* TOP Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET: Oklahoma State certainly struggled last week hosting Central Michigan and, as a 20 point favorite, that certainly should not have happened. However, even with a game not played well, the Cowboys still should have won the game by a 27-24 count. Oklahoma State had the ball and was running the clock out when an intentional grounding penalty on fourth down resulted and the referees ended up making a mistake as they allowed the Chippewas to have down (ball was around midfield) even though the clock was at zero. By rule, the game truly should have already been over. However, the fact is that a mistake was made and, Central Michigan ended up with an unbelievable win when they completed a hail mary pass that was short of the end zone but then was lateraled for the game-winning touchdown. The Cowboys know they gave a poor effort last week but they also know they didn't deserve to lose the game. Coach Mike Gundy is in his 12th year with Oklahoma State and, as such, he is veteran presence for a team that also came into this season with plenty of returning talent. OSU returned 16 starters from last year and also returned a total of 38 players that were on the two-deep bowl roster. This type of experienced team is going to come out fighting hard this week after what happened last week. It is a mature group both physically and mentally and the Cowboys won 10 games last year and are catching Pittsburgh at the perfect time too. The Panthers are off of an in-state rivalry win over Penn State and now are traveling to face a talented Big 12 team. Pitt hasn't had to travel to face a Big 12 school in over 10 years and this is truly a tough travel spot considering the Panthers have their ACC opener on deck. While it is true that Oklahoma State also has their conference opener on deck, the Cowboys scheduling spot is much easier as they are playing their 3rd straight home game to open up the season. The Cowboys have a bit of an "us against the world" attitude this week and they have resolved to put last week's loss behind them by coming out with an "A game" effort that should leave no doubt on the scoreboard. Even with last week's loss, Oklahoma State is on a 27-14 ATS run as a home favorite against FBS schools. The Panthers season opener this year was against an FCS school so Pittsburgh is getting their first truly tough test on the road this week. The Panthers relied heavily on their ground game to get past Penn State last week but Oklahoma State is allowing only 2.1 yards per carry so far this season. In terms of the aerial attacks of these two teams there truly is no comparison as the Cowboys were 7th in the nation last year with 353 passing yards per game while Pitt was 99th with only 190.6 yards per game through the air. The Panthers will want to control the trenches and get their ground game going but the Cowboys have been strong against the run as noted above and also are going to be extremely physical in this game at the line of scrimmage because this team is extremely fired up after taking the ultimate unthinkable loss last week. Pitt is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Look for home domination in Stillwater, OK Saturday afternoon. |
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09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets -1 over Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS Both teams are 0-1 so the desperation will be alive for each. With that being said, if both bring their “A” games, the Jets are simply the better team. The Bills offense looked horrendous against a decent but not great Baltimore defense. Buffalo had only 160 total yards on just 3.3 yards per play. They crossed midfield only TWICE the enter game. Now they face a Jets defense that ranked 5th in the NFL last season and looked very solid against a potent Bengal offense last week. Meanwhile the Jets offense looked solid scoring 22 points on 5.2 YPP vs a very good Cincy defense. The Bengals kicked a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining to pick up the 23-22 win. The flyboys scored on 3 of their 5 first half possessions and had a 22 yard FG blocked on one of this first half drives. The Jets will have a little extra motivation here as well as they lost both meetings last year by the same exact 22-17 score. A closer look reveals that New York actually outplayed Buffalo and turnovers were the difference (as they are in most NFL games). In the two games combined, the Jets had 30 first downs (to 31 for Buffalo), 618 yards (to 575 for Buffalo), 5.4 yards per play (to 4.2 YPPG for Buffalo), and a whopping 7 turnovers for the Jets (just 1 for Buffalo). Even with that turnover disparity, the Jets had the ball deep in Buffalo territory late the game with a chance to win. In BOTH games. Where the line sits we basically have to pick the winner and we think that will be the better team – J-E-T-S! |
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09-12-16 | Steelers -3 v. Redskins | Top | 38-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Washington, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET The Redskins won the terrible NFC East by default last year despite getting outgained by an average of 28 YPG which ranked them 23rd in the NFL in that category. The NFC Least was terrible in 2015 with the 3 other teams (Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles) combining for a 17-31 record. Somebody had to win it, right? That was the Skins who had, by far, the worst point differential of all the NFL playoff teams at +9 for the entire season. There were 13 teams that had better point differentials than Washington and 22 teams that had better YPG differential. They didn’t beat a winning team all last season. While this was a playoff team last year by definition, they really weren’t good enough to be in the post-season and that was proven when wildcard team GB went into Washington and smoked the Skins 35-18 to quickly knock them out. The Steelers are the MUCH better team here. They were +45 YPG better than Washington offensively last year, +95 better in overall point differential and gave up 17 fewer YPG. Pitt is far superior at QB with Roethlisberger vs Cousins and they also have the top WR in the NFL in Antonio Brown. While RB Bell is out in this game, his back up DeAngelo Williams rushed for almost 1,000 yards last year so very little drop off there. While Washington really didn’t deserve their post-season berth last year, the Steelers beat Cincy on the road and then outplayed eventual Super Bowl Champion Denver on the road in a 23-16 loss outgaining the Broncs by 72 yards. Pitt put up almost 400 yards on a Bronco defense that allowed just 283 on the season. Now this potent Steeler offense faces a Washington D that finished 28th in YPG allowed last year. We’ll gladly lay the 3 points in this spot and take Pittsburgh. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England +6.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We realize Brady will be in street clothes watching this one and because of that this spread is set too high. Give Belichick nearly a full TD and ample time to prepare and we have a very dangerous dog here. Belichick took over as the Pats head coach in 2000 and New England has been an underdog 67 times in that span. They are 44-22-1 ATS in those games. If they are getting 6 points or more (they are currently +6) his Patriot team is 12-4 ATS (75%) with 7 of those being outright wins. You can bet Belichick will have a great game plan going into this one. Brady’s replacement, Jimmy Garappolo, looked solid in the pre-season and as long as he doesn’t make huge mistakes, New England has a chance to win this one outright. He has the top TE combo in the NFL as targets with Marcellus Bennett teaming up with Gronk (he is ? here) this year. Arizona looked absolutely terrible in the pre-season and the scary part is, even in game 3 when the starters played extensively, they were whipped by Houston and the starters only put up 10 points in the first half. QB Carson Palmer threw 2 picks and didn’t look good. The starting defense gave up 31 points in the first half of that game @ Houston. Arizona is the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year but we think they might be a bit over valued entering the season. Laying nearly a TD to New England is too high. The Pats will keep this close |
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09-10-16 | California v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 0 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Game #392 - 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (-) vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET: After opening up at an 8 this line was down to a 7 by Thursday afternoon. The situation here is truly ideal for a San Diego State blowout and that is what makes the drop to a 7 add even more value in this spot. The fact is that the betting markets have had trouble with the Aztecs in the past and we feel this line is also well off the mark. San Diego State was "only" 7-6 ATS last season but 5 of those ATS wins beat the spread by at least 20 points. This looks like another spot where the Aztecs are very undervalued. Adding even more to this selection is the fact that California is still an over-valued team. They are off of a bye week because they were a week ahead of most everyone else with their late August game against Hawaii "down under" in Australia. That game is helping to give us value here because the Golden Bears did win that game by a big margin but it hides the fact that Cal defense did give up nearly 500 yards in that game. That was against the same Hawaii team that then went to Michigan and got rolled 63 to 6. The point is that the Cal early season win masked some major concerns with this team. The Golden Bears (with star QB Jared Goff now in the NFL with the Rams) are a team that is likely to struggle against a top rate defense like San Diego State has. With Rocky Long at the helm, the Aztecs are extremely well coached. San Diego State allowed only 287.3 yards per game last season which ranked them 5th in the nation. Many look at this game as a scheduling edge for Cal since they are coming off of a bye week. However, traveling to Australia to play inferior competition and then immediately having a two week break while trying to stay game ready isn't exactly an ideal situation. The Aztecs are truly in the ideal situation here as they have been home the entire time, hosted an outclassed New Hampshire team last week (31-0 win) so they were able to "work the rust off" after the off-season, and now they get a shot at revenge. Last year the Aztecs and coach Long were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 2 of their season when they lost 35 to 7 at Cal. Now San Diego State gets an opportunity for revenge at home and the Aztecs loss to Cal last year was their worst loss since all the way back in September of 2013 when they lost big at Ohio State. There is no doubt that coach Long will have his troops ready for this one and we expect running back Donnel Pumphrey to run wild in this one as he faces a Cal defense that was ripped for 248 yards (6.5 yards per carry) by the Rainbow Warriors. Cal ranked 109th on defense last year allowing 453.7 yards per game and that weakness is still here plus the offense only returned 3 starters from last season. Look for the home team to make it 8 in a row in this series on the West Coast. We'll lay the points with San Diego State in late night action Saturday. |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 106 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DENVER BRONCOS: It's the Super Bowl rematch as the Panthers and Broncos square off Thursday night in Denver. Let's first talk about the last meeting and the importance it has on this game and how it will impact the outcome. In the Super Bowl the Broncos defense was absolutely dominating and they essentially won the game themselves. On the other side of the football Denver had less than 200 yards of total offense, just 11 first downs but still won the game by 14-points. Why? Because the defense sacked Newton six times, forced 4 turnovers, 1 for a TD and 1 that directly led to a touchdown. Yes, the Denver D lost a few key players but our NFL insiders tells us they won't miss a beat, still have the best D-line and secondary in the NFL. Some experts feel this Denver defense might be one of the best overall units they've seen in years. In other words we don't expect a change on that side of the football for Denver so what about the offense? Former Broncos QB Peyton Manning was just 13 of 23 (56.6 percent) for 141 yards in the Super Bowl. He threw no touchdowns and one interception for a 56.6 passer rating, which ranks as the fourth-worst in Super Bowl history for winning quarterbacks. We're pretty confident young QB Trevor Siemian, who has had a great training camp, can manage this offense with the returning talent on the roster. Not to mention the Panthers start two rookie CB's which has only happened one other time since 1991. The Panthers were one of the league's best offenses statistically last year with QB Newton, RB Stewart and TE Olson but let's not forget they played the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL last season. Denver has 18 of the 22 overall starters from last year's team, are playing at home and getting points. In direct comparison, the Panthers were -4.5-point favorites last year on a neutral field and are now laying nearly the same number in Denver? Denver is 16-3 SU their last nineteen at home and have been a home dog of 3-point or less just three times in that span (3-0 SU/ATS). Carolina is 0-4 ATS their last four road games and while this is a revenge game the value clearly lies with Denver. Take the home team! |
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09-04-16 | Notre Dame v. Texas +4.5 | Top | 47-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Tonight we play on Texas plus the points over Notre Dame. Last year when these same two teams met the Irish were 8.5-point chalks at home and they destroyed the Longhorns 38-3 in racking up 527 total yards of offense while allowing just 163. That was last year in South Bend and the circumstances are much different this year with the game in Texas AND with the Longhorns returning 79% of their offense and defense from last year’s squad. Texas is loaded with talent and are expected to be much better this season in coach Charlie Strong’s third season. Our predictors expect them to be at least 3-points per game better offensively and the same defensively. This is the best O line in the Charlie Strong era, and it should be able to wear down a smallish (and lacking depth) d-front of the Irish as the game goes on. Strong realized he need to improve his offense so he brought in assistant coach Sterlin Gilbert and he’s been tasked with installing the same offense that has powered Baylor to two Big 12 titles in three years. You can expect success on the ground here with the power run game as tailbacks D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren run behind a solid O-line which should put the Longhorns in plenty of 3rd and short and take pressure off freshman QB Buechele. Yes, Notre Dame has talent offensively, especially at QB with Zaire and Kizer, along with RB’s Folston and Adams, but they lack playmakers at the wideout positions and there is some chemistry issues with the rotating QB’s. Texas is at home playing with revenge in their season opener and getting value here as they should be a slight favorite according to our early season power ratings. Grab the points with Texas. |
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09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 19 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Game #183 - 10* TOP Clemson Tigers -7 @ Auburn Tigers @ 9 ET: Clemson was perfect last season until coming up just short against Alabama in the Championship Game. Although they lost 7 starters from last year's defense, this was similar to the situation going into the prior season as well - Clemson last 8 starters on defense heading into 2015. Of course 2015 was still a huge success and similar results should be expected in 2016. The defensive system continues to thrive at Clemson and the offense returns 8 starters including star QB Deshaun Watson. Under coach Dabo Swinney Clemson has gone 3-0 ATS in their 3 meetings with Auburn. Though Auburn is an SEC team they only went 2-6 both SU and ATS in conference action last season. Auburn will be trying to stop a Clemson offense that ranked among the top teams in the nation last year and Watson is such a huge threat both through the air and on the ground. The Auburn defense overall was ranked 13th in the SEC and now has its 3rd defensive coordinator in the last three years. Additionally, there is concern at the linebacker position as Auburn plays a 4-3 defense and lost all 3 of their starting linebackers from last season's team. We just don't see the Auburn defense (ranked 71st in the nation for yardage allowed) as being able to slow down Clemson much at all. The dynamic offensive attack of Clemson will prove to be too much here and Auburn doesn't have the offense to keep up. Auburn only has 6 returning starters on offense and the team was ranked 94th in the nation in yards per game on that side of the ball. We expect an early season road rout here and we're laying the points with Clemson Saturday night. |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 118 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +6 over Carolina, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET We have to take the line value with Denver here. Now that this team has pushed up to –5.5 or -6 in favor of the Panthers, we’ll jump on the Broncos. To put this line in perspective, we’ll adjust the line as if Carolina was the home team. With the line where it is set now, that would mean Carolina would be -10 at home vs Denver which is off. When comparing this to their most recent 5 home games, you’ll see what we mean. In those home games the Panthers were favored by 3 vs Arizona, 2.5 vs Seattle, 8.5 vs Atlanta, 10 vs Tampa, and 7 vs Washington. That puts this current line in perspective and tells us where the value is. Denver has been an underdog 5 times this year covering all 5 and winning 4 of those games outright over New England (twice), KC, and Green Bay. As we all know they have the #1 defense in the NFL and completely shut down the Patriots and Tom Brady last week. That’s not easy to do. Teams with the better overall defense have won 40 of the 49 Super Bowls and that sits squarely in Denver’s corner here. With 2 weeks to prepare we’re positive the Denver defense will have a great game plan to slow down Carolina. The Panthers have obviously been very good in their first 2 playoff games both at home. Now that they have to leave the confines of their home stadium and travel west. They played a very weak slate away from home this year beating only one team that finished the season with a winning record. Peyton Manning is obviously on his last leg for Denver but he’s played OK since he came back into the lineup. He has gone 3 straight games without turning the ball over which is key here vs a Carolina team that is +20 in turnover margin (+6 turnovers more than the 2nd best margin). Manning has been in this spot numerous times and has the savvy to manage this game and get a win. He knows his role now. Denver will play great defense and make this a “slow” paced, field position type game. Carolina is definitely the “public” side here as their offense has been red hot. The problem is that has made the Panthers an overvalued side here as we mentioned earlier. That doesn’t bode well as teams that score 40+ points in the playoffs (Carolina did last week) are just 5-23 ATS their next game! The dog is also 6-1 ATS the last 8 Super Bowls – last year was a pick-em game so it’s not included. We think Denver’s defense keeps this close and getting nearly a TD is the way to go. |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -103 | 48 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Denver, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET These two met right here in Denver in late November with New England as a slight 2.5 point favorite. The Pats led the game 21-7 with under 13:00 minutes remaining but the Broncs put on a furious rally and won 30-24 in OT. Brock Osweiler was the Denver QB in that one and they relied heavily on the ground game with 29 combined carries for Anderson and Hillman for 172 yards. You can bet New England and Bill Belichick will shore up their run defense here and force a less than stellar Peyton Manning to beat them. We don’t think he can do it as his skills and arm strength have diminished considerably. In fact, in last Sunday’s 23-16 win over an injury riddled Pittsburgh team, Manning’s QB Rating was just 35.9 which was his 2nd worst rating in any of his playoff games over the last decade. The Broncos struggled to beat a Pittsburgh team with a QB that couldn’t throw down field due to an injured shoulder (Roethlisberger) and a team without their top WR or RB. Even with that, Denver was trailing with 3:00 minutes remaining when they scored their go ahead TD. Despite the shoulder injury, Roethlisberger was able to put up 339 yards through the air and a 53.2 QB Rating. Needless to say, we expect Brady to have a big day on Sunday. Pittsburgh dominated the all telling yards per play stats averaging 6.7 per snap compared to just 4.6 for Denver. The Broncs had only TWO drives the entire game of 40 or more yards against an “OK” but not great Pittsburgh defense. We feel the Broncos were a bit lucky to come out of last week with a win despite facing a beat up team playing their 4th consecutive week on the road. New England led 21-6 in the 3rd and held on to top a red hot KC team 27-20. That was despite New England running 27 FEWER offensive plays! The Pats, unlike Denver, dominated the yards per play stat with 6.1 yards per snap compared to 4.6 for KC. New England has the coaching edge and a huge advantage at the most important position on the field, QB. We don’t think Denver can do enough offensively to win this game. Take the PATRIOTS. |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers -1 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 66 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -1 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET They had plenty of doubters, but the fact is Carolina was the best team in the NFL pretty much all season long. Getting them at home and rested at this number is a gift. Let’s not forget that the Panthers already faced off against Seattle this year and that was on the road in what many consider to be the toughest venue in the NFL. Carolina won that game 27-23 outgaining the Hawks 383 to 334. Seattle’s used up their “rabbit’s foot” last week when they won at Minnesota 10-9 as the Vikes missed a chip shot field goal to win. Minny dominated the first 3 quarters leading 9-0 heading into the 4th and Seattle had just 162 total yards at that point. While Carolina is rested and ready, Seattle is traveling for the 3rd straight week as they closed out the regular season @ Arizona. Hard to believe a team that went 15-1 is undervalued but that is the case here. The Panthers were 8-0 at winning by an average margin of 16 PPG and they are currently laying under a FG here. Seattle’s “luck” runs out on Sunday. |
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01-16-16 | Packers v. Cardinals -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -100 | 99 h 38 m | Show |
We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast Dec 20th in Oakland then came home, went to Arizona the following week, then home to face Minnesota. And last week they went to the East coast to face Washington and now travel back to Arizona on short week having to play on Saturday. Green Bay beat Washington handily last week but we're not buying them. The Skins were over-rated and won a bad NFC East division yet they still managed to outgain the Packers despite getting beat 18-35. The Packers offense has been OK, but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona averages nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. In the recent meeting the Cards absolutely destroyed the Packers 38-8. When you factor in sacks (Arizona had 9 for minus 78 yards) the Packers and Aaron Rodgers had 77 net yards passing! Arizona racked up over 380 yards of total offense and outgained the Pack by 200 yards. After jumping up 17-0 the Cards were able to play conservative too and save 60-70% of their playbook for this rematch. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career there is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 4-14 SU their last 18 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they won by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big. |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs +5 v. Patriots | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -108 | 93 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City +5 over New England, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET New England was headed in the wrong direction at the end of the season. They had two very meaningful games to close out the year and they couldn’t win either. The Pats simply needed to win one of their final two games and they would have clinched home field throughout the playoffs. On Dec 27th the Pats lost to the Jets 26-20 and were outgained by 144 yards. Even more disturbing they then lost to Miami 20-10 and outgained by a whopping 242 yards in a game they needed to win. That was against a Miami team that had lost 5 of their previous 6 games with their only win (before New England) coming by 2-points vs a decimated Baltimore team. The big problem for them offensively is they can’t run the ball. Since losing RB Blount 3 games ago, they’ve tried to piece together a backfield by signing a slow and aging Steven Jackson to go with their current roster of James White & Brandon Bolden. In their final 3 games New England rushed for a total of 226 yards on 75 carries or just 3 YPC. Don’t expect that to change against a KC defense allowing just 99 YPG on the season. That will allow a very good KC pass rush (3 sacks per game) to tee off on an immobile and banged up (ankle) Tom Brady. Not only that, the Chief defense leads the NFL in opposing QB pass completion percentage allowing just 56%. The KC offense will be conservative and try and limit mistakes (turnovers). They will do enough to stay in this game the whole way. They have all the confidence in the world that they can win this game entering on an 11 game winning streak. Tom Brady is just 11-15 ATS in the playoffs as the Pats usually come in a bit over valued. That is the case here and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs win this game outright. We’ll take the points as for a nice cushion. |
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01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +3 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET These two teams met a few weeks ago with the Steelers prevailing 33-20 in Cincinnati. The Bengals actually outgained the Steelers in that game but lost their starting QB Andy Dalton on the opening drive of the game. Backup AJ McCarron played OK in relief and is a serviceable 2nd string NFL QB. The Bengals are arguably the most talented team in the playoffs and have an edge defensively here. Cincinnati is 2nd in the league in points allowed per game at 17.4PPG, 1st in opponents points per play (.270), 10th in yards per play allowed and 2nd in opponents TD’s allowed per game (1.8). The Bengals ‘weakness’ on defense is stopping the run, but as of this writing the Steelers will have a hard time exploiting that as RB DeAngelo Williams is in a walking boot (listed as doubtful). Williams had 76 yards and 2 TD’s versus the Bengals in the most recent meeting. The Bengals should exploit a Steelers secondary that is 30th in the NFL in passing yard allowed per game, giving up more than 270YPG. Early in the season when these two teams met in Pittsburgh the line was a pick’em. Then most recently in Cincy the Bengals were minus 1-point and now they are getting a full field goal at home. Home teams in the Wildcard rounds are on a 65-35 SU run and we feel the Bengals get a home win here. |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +3 over Kansas City, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET The Chiefs come in on a well-publicized 10 game winning streak. However, they have been far from dominant during this run outgaining those 10 opponents by an average of just 11 YPG. Turnovers have been the key as they are +16 during that 10 game run and that can’t be counted on to continue game after game. Especially vs the Texans who’ve protected the ball very well with just 10 turnovers total in their last 11 games. Let’s also not forget that while that 10 game run is impressive, they beat only 2 teams during that stretch that ended the year with above .500 records and there needs to be an “asterisk” placed by both of those games. They topped Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger out and beat Denver in the game that Peyton Manning went out and was replaced by Osweiler and didn’t come back until last week. These two met here in the season opener and KC was a 1-point favorite. The Chiefs won 27-20 but were outgained by almost 70 yards but +2 in turnovers. Down the stretch run KC was favored by 3 @ Oakland and by 3 @ SD, two non-playoff teams. Now they are laying the same or even a bit more in some places which gives us value on the host. Since 2003 NFL playoff dogs are 71-58 ATS and that trend continues in this game. |
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01-02-16 | Penn State +6 v. Georgia | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State +6 over Georgia, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - ASA's 2016 BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR The UGA team has to be in disarray for this bowl game. They lost their head coach Mark Richt to Miami and he’s already taken a number of assistants, including both the offensive AND defensive coordinator, and they will not be coaching in this game. Many of the coaches that are prepping the Dogs for this game don’t have jobs moving forward so we can imagine that’s been quite a distraction as well. Kirby Smart (former Bama assistant) will take over after this game and he hasn’t retained any of the current UGA assistants as of yet. On top of all of that, the fact is that UGA simply wasn’t all that great this year. They were outscored by an average of 9 PPG and outgained by nearly 70 YPG vs the other bowl teams they faced this season. Their offense has struggled much of the season and especially down the stretch as they scored 20 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games. They are very one-dimensional with little passing game (178 YPG ranking 106th nationally). Their QB Greyson Lambert has been average at best all season and actually was unable to win the job @ Virginia which is why he transferred over the summer. That will be a problem against a very aggressive PSU defense that ranks 16th nationally in defensive efficiency. PSU’s offense hasn’t been great but they do have an NFL caliber QB in Hackenberg. PSU, unlike Georgia, is thrilled to be playing a top notch opponent and they are extra motivated after a poor performance @ Michigan State to end the season. Their coaching staff is much more stable at this point which is very important heading into bowl season. Getting nearly a full TD is a great spot here as we feel PSU has a great shot to win this game outright. |
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01-01-16 | Notre Dame +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 28-44 | Loss | -130 | 38 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +7 over Ohio State, Friday at 1:00 PM ET We think the Irish come with much more enthusiasm and “want to” in this game. The Buckeyes had one goal after winning the National Championship a year ago and that was to repeat this season. They failed to do so and not getting to the “Final 4” is a huge disappointment. While the making it to the Fiesta Bowl would be a huge accomplishment for most teams, we expect OSU to be flat here. They have a number of players with one foot out the door to the NFL and not getting a chance to accomplish their season long goal will have them disinterested. Their opponent is no slouch. In fact, we think these two teams compare very favorably and for OSU to be nearly a TD favorite is off in our opinion. Notre Dame comes in with just 2 losses and they really could have and should have won both of those games. If so, we’re talking about an undefeated Irish team and a potential National Championship. Their losses were by 2-points @ Clemson and by 2-points @ Stanford. The Irish outgained Clemson by nearly 150 yards but 4 turnovers did them in and gave the Tigers a tight win. The golden domers also outgained Stanford on the road by 111 yards but a 50+ yard field goal as time ran out giving the Cardinal a tight win. They are tough to defend averaging more than 200 YPG both rushing and passing. They stepped up vs top competition going 5-1 ATS vs bowl teams and +72 YPG in those games. The Bucks underachieved all season coming off last year’s fantastic late season run and we see no reason Notre Dame doesn’t hang in this one all the way and have a shot to win outright. |
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01-01-16 | Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 41 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -8 over Northwestern, Friday at 12:00 Noon ET We feel this Vol team is much better than their 8-4 record. All 4 of their losses were to bowl teams and all were down to the wire, one score games. Two of those losses came to “Final 4” teams Oklahoma & Alabama. The Vols played Bama closer than anyone this season (sans Bama’s loss to Ole Miss) and actually led on the road with under 3:00 minutes remaining. Bama won the game with a late score 19-14. UT also led Oklahoma 17-0 before losing by a TD in overtime. Pretty impressive losses to say the least. Their other two setbacks were to Arkansas by 4 and to Florida by 1. This team was very close to having a great, great season. This is a young team that will absolutely show up at their best here gaining momentum for the 2016 season. Don’t forget that UT has not been to a New Year’s Day bowl game since 2007 so this is a big deal for them. Northwestern is an unimpressive 10-2 in our opinion. They did knock off Stanford in the 1st game of the year but the Cardinal were a much better team later in the season and we have no doubt if they faced off again NW would lose big. In their two “step up” games this year vs Michigan & Iowa, this Wildcat team lost by a combined score of 78-10. Their other decent win was 13-7 vs Wisconsin, a game the Badgers had won but a crazy call to overturn a UW TD late was the decider. The Cats are simply too one-dimensional offensively to win a game against a very good team like this. They can’t pass the ball and rely almost exclusively on the run. NW ranks 120th in passing YPG (138) and 117th in completion percentage (49%). Tennessee is much more diverse rushing for 224 YPG and passing for 200. They also have a mobile QB that NW’s defense did not see much of this year. Tommy Armstrong @ Nebraska was probably the only similar QB they faced in the Big Ten but he isn’t nearly as good as UT’s Dobbs. Tennessee played a Big Ten team (Iowa) in last year’s Tax Slayer Bowl and rolled up a big 17 point win. We look for a similar outcome this year vs Northwestern. |
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12-31-15 | Michigan State v. Alabama -10 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Alabama -10 over Michigan State, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - ASA's 2015 BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR We felt that MSU was a bit over rated all season long. Their stats simply don’t match up with their overall record. This is a team that averaged 5.7 YPP offensively and allowed 5.5 YPP defensively. That simply doesn’t add up to a team that should be in College Football’s “Final 4”. Their two biggest regular season wins were over Michigan & Ohio State. Keep in mind that Sparty had some serious luck on their sides in those games as they NEVER LED in either game until the final play of the game (blocked punt for TD vs Michigan & FG at buzzer vs Ohio State). Their other big win was a 16-13 triumph over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game. They had a number of tight wins vs bad competition as well beating Purdue by 3, Rutgers by 7, Air Force by 14 (game was closer than that) and a loss @ Nebraska. Just nothing overly impressive from MSU this year in our opinion. Bama on the other hand, played a whopping 11 bowl teams and lost just once to Ole Miss and the Tide had 5 turnovers in that game. So they were 10-1 vs bowl teams with all but one of those wins coming by double digits. They outgained those 11 opponents by an average of 150 YPG. Bama has some extra incentive here as well after losing in last year’s semi-final to another Big Ten team, Ohio State. Don’t think Saban hasn’t used that as motivation leading into this game. Alabama is the much better team in our mind and they roll in this one. |
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12-30-15 | Louisville v. Texas A&M +5 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M +5 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET This is a big time value play here as we feel the huge line move was an over-reaction. The Aggies were once favored by 3 in this game and this game has now moved to Louisville -4.5 so more than a full TD move on this game. The obvious reason is due to the QB situation at A&M where both their #1 and #2 QB’s have decided to transfer. While Kyler Murray and Kyle Allen were both highly touted QB’s coming out of HS, both were young and inconsistent so it’s not as if Texas A&M lost 2 of the top QB’s in the nation. The new QB will be JC transfer Hubenak who threw for 4,000 yards last in JC in only 8 games! He’s attempted 27 passes this season and has now had nearly a full month to prepare with the starters. We expect him to play well as head coach Kevin Sumlin has a way with first time QB’s playing well in their first games under center. Louisville does not deserve to be a 4.5 point favorite here. This is a team that was 7-5 on the year and beat only one bowl team (NC State). The Cards struggled to beat WF, BC, Virginia & Kentucky (tied entering the 4th quarter) all non-bowl teams. The only SEC team they played this year was a “down” Auburn team and the Cards lost that one by double digits. Speaking of QB play, Louisville struggles big time at that position with Jackson completing just 55% of his passes this year with only 10 TD’s and 8 interceptions. Despite the QB “upheaval” the Aggies have had, Louisville will not have an advantage at that position. A&M head man Sumlin has performed well in the post-season with a 3-0 bowl record with the Aggies. He’ll have them rallied and ready here and the better team is getting points. Take A&M. |
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12-30-15 | NC State v. Mississippi State -6.5 | Top | 28-51 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -6.5 over NC State, Wednesday at 3:30 PM ET We like looking for good teams in bowl games if they are coming off a loss in their regular season finale AND lost in their bowl game last year. That provides some extra incentive to get it done in their bowl game. MSU fits the bill here as they lost in their season finale to rival Ole Miss & lost in last year’s Orange Bowl to Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs were outgained by 77 yards in their season ending 11-point loss to Ole Miss but prior to that they had outgained 6 straight opponents. MSU QB Dak Prescott will be the best player in this game and the Bulldogs want to send him out with a win in the final game of his career. NC State is 7-5 but they’ve beaten nobody and we mean nobody. They have ZERO wins over a team that ended the season with a winning record. Their two best wins when it comes to opposing team’s records would be over South Alabama (who ended the year 5-7) and Old Dominion (who ended the year 5-7). The Wolfpack played 5 teams this year that ended up in bowl games and they went 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games with their losses coming by 17, 15, 15, 11, and 7 points. Mississippi State outscored the bowl teams they played 27-26 and outgained them by an average of 1 YPG. That may not seem like much but again compared to NC State that looks great as they Wolfpack were outscored 36-23 and outgained by 124 YPG in their bowl team match ups. MSU is the much better team and motivated. We like them to win going away. |
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12-29-15 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 27-56 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +7.5 over LSU - Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET We can’t imagine the Tigers are all that thrilled to be playing in the Texas Bowl. Let’s not forget that in early November this team was undefeated getting set to play Bama and there was plenty of talk about this LSU team getting into College Football’s “Final 4”. They hadn’t beaten anyone that was all that great in their 7-0 run to start the year and this team was exposed down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games. All 3 losses came in blowout fashion vs the likes of Bama by 14, Arkansas by 17 and Ole Miss by 21. They did close out the season with a 19-7 win over a “dysfunctional” Texas A&M team at the time that has since learned both of their top 2 QB’s are transferring. This bowl is a letdown for this team and they have historically struggled failing to cover 4 straight bowl games. Texas Tech is thrilled to be here and they can score on anyone. They finished 3rd nationally averaging 45.5 PPG. They should be able to score again here vs an LSU defense that was definitely down compared to recent editions allowing 24 PPG (36th nationally) with 3 of their last 4 opponents reaching at least 30 points. The Raider defense is not good but they are facing a fairly one-dimensional LSU offense that failed to top 19 points in any of their final 4 contests. LSU will score here don’t get us wrong but we think Tech scores right with them. A few breaks and we have no doubt Texas Tech can win this game. These two had one common opponent this season and that was Arkansas. Texas Tech beat the Razors on the road by 11 and LSU lost to Arkansas at home by 17. That obviously doesn’t always equate but with a very potent offense, and an excited team getting a full TD we’ll take it. Texas Tech is the play. |
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12-28-15 | Bengals v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Bengals clinched the AFC North with Pittsburgh’s loss on Sunday to a bit of a letdown might be in order here. It’s also their 2nd straight week having to travel west after beating SF on the road 24-14 last week. It’s not an ideal spot for the Bengals. In that game last week in San Fran the Bengals were actually outgained by what many consider the worst team in the NFL but benefitted from 4 Niner turnovers and 11 SF penalties. It was QB AJ McCarron’s first NFL start and he was OK at best throwing for 192 yards against the NFL’s 27th ranked overall defense. Now he faces the NFL’s top defense in the 2nd start of his career and he’ll have to play a whole lot better than he did last week to give Cincinnati a chance here. We’re getting some value here at home with Denver. They are off 2 straight losses and really need a win here. Both losses were of the “deceiving” nature. Two weeks ago they lost here to Oakland 17-15 despite outgaining the Raiders by almost 200 yards. Last week they had Pittsburgh on the ropes at home leading 27-10 before a furious Steeler comeback netted them a 7 point win. Two very disappointing losses should have this team very focused in front of a national audience on Monday. This becomes a HUGE game for Denver as a loss here opens the door for KC to possibly win the division. In this situation, we’re definitely willing to lay a small number with the home team that has won 30 of their last 36 games here. Take Denver! |
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12-27-15 | Giants +7 v. Vikings | Top | 17-49 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET After back-to-back losses Minnesota bounced back with a convincing win over the Bears and a strong game from Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikings have not officially clinched a playoff spot but they are in a great position as they simply need a win earlier in the day by either Carolina or Seattle (both big favorites) and Minny will be headed to the post-season. That may cause a bit of a "letdown" here knowing they are in. The bigger game is next week in Green Bay which will most likely be for the NFC North Title. While the Giants were officially eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, this line has been adjusted WAY too much in our opinion. The Giants have been competitive in all but one of their 8 losses including last week's 3 point loss to the undefeated Panthers. In fact, 7 of NY's 8 losses have come by 6 points or less. This number is now set too high with a over valued Minnesota team who is just 9 points better than the Giants in point differential. Take the points. |
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12-27-15 | Packers v. Cardinals -5.5 | Top | 8-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Both need to win for playoff positioning so that's a wash. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast last week against the Raiders and now having to travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. Green Bay won by 10 last week over Oakland but they did get outgained in the game by 80+ total yards. The Packers offense is pretty good but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona average nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. The Cards have a new found weapon in running back David Johnson who has rushed for over 378 yards in the past three games and has 12 TD's on the season. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career their is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 3-13 SU their last 16 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they win by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big. |
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12-27-15 | Bears v. Bucs -3 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We don’t see the Bears showing up for this one. They are officially out of the playoff race and they didn’t show up to play last week vs division rival Vikings – a 21-point loss. Now on the road again in a meaningless game we think the Bears are probably done here. Tampa is off a loss @ St. Louis but they easily won the battle of the stats outgaining the Rams by nearly 200 yards! Tampa continues to play hard as they have now outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. We realize the Bucs are out of the playoff mix as well but with a young team and young QB, they are building for next year. The Bucs have exceeded expectations this year while Chicago was anticipating a run at the playoffs and fell far short. Tampa has outgained their opponents by an average of 35 YPG and probably should have a better mark than 6-8. The weather also calls for 85 degrees and humid in Tampa which definitely favors the team that is used to those conditions. Look for Chicago to wear down in the 2nd half as Tampa pulls away. |
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12-26-15 | Indiana -3.5 v. Duke | Top | 41-44 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Indiana (-3.5) over Duke, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET
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12-24-15 | Chargers v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
#102 Oakland Raiders (-5.5) over San Diego Chargers - Thursday, 7:25PM CT - We are going to play on the Oakland Raiders minus the points over the visiting San Diego Chargers. As happens so often late in the season a bad team like San Diego gets a much needed win (last week over Miami) and then take the following week off in preparation for the off-season. We think that's the case this week as a bad San Diego team, that has scored just 3 points offensively in three of their last five games, and coming off a home game which might be their last in San Diego, doesn't show up. Oakland on the other hand outgained Green Bay at home last week but still lost by 10-points. San Diego is beat up on the O-line, at the receiver position and running back offensively. Oakland rates a solid edge in the running game as the Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 120.6 yards per game. Oakland also has the pass defense that can contain what the Chargers do best offensively and that's throwing the football. Oakland is 10th in opponents yards per pass (6.6) and 16th in opponents completion percentage defense. Earlier this year when these two teams met the Raiders beat the Chargers 37-29 but that final is misleading as the Bolts scored a meaningless TD with 6 seconds left in the game. San Diego is just 1-5 SU on the road this season with that win coming at Jacksonville but their other losses have all come by an average of 8PPG. Oakland has lost three straight at home but they came against Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota who are all VASTLY better than the Chargers. The Raiders will give their home fans a big win here over a Chargers team that will be more interested in Christmas and the off-season. Lay the points. |
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12-23-15 | Georgia Southern v. Bowling Green -7 | Top | 58-27 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Bowling Green -7 over Georgia Southern, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET Many times during the bowl season we like to go against teams that have abruptly lost their coach to a higher level job. That isn’t an automatic go against but it is something we look strongly at. No advantage here when it comes to that aspect as BOTH head coaches have already moved on. BG head man Dino Babers took the Syracuse job and GS head coach Willie Fitz has moved on to Tulane. Both teams have already hired new head coaches from outside the program and the assistants that will be moving on are taking care of the bowl prep. Thus, no real advantage there. So all thing being equal on the coaching front, we have to side with BG as we feel they are the much better and more veteran team. The Falcons have been to 4 straight bowl games and they have 20+ seniors and a coaching staff (albeit assitants) that have been through this. Georgia Southern is playing in their first ever bowl game and they are stocked with young players (nearly 50 total freshmen/redshirt freshmen)! The Sun Belt has shown to be a fairly weak conference thus far in bowl season. The conference champion, Arkansas State, was whipped by La Tech. Georgia State, who beat this Georgia Southern team 34-7 to close out the year, was beaten by a 5-7 San Jose State team. App State held on for dear life to beat an Ohio team (31-29) that Bowling Green beat 62-24. GS runs the ball almost exclusively. They finished dead last in passing putting up just 62 YPG. We’ll take the much more diverse and explosive offense in this one as BG averages 376 YPG passing and 185 YPG rushing. GS hasn’t seen an offense this good all season in the Sun Belt. They avoided conference champ Arkie State this year which would have been a similar but not nearly as good offense. BG just took teams to the woodshed all season long as 8 of their 10 wins were by at least 14 points. Another beating here as we like Bowling Green big. |
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12-23-15 | Boise State v. Northern Illinois +9.5 | Top | 55-7 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois +9 over Boise State, Wednesday at 430 PM ET NIU gets a big boost here with starting QB Graham returning to the line up. He was injured in the season finale vs Ohio and then was unable to play on the MAC Championship game, a 34-14 loss to Bowling Green. Graham started to take 1st team snaps in practice this week and we fully expect him to be under center when this game starts. Boise is a bit overrated in our minds. The Broncos were favored in every game this year yet still had 4 losses. Three of those losses came in their final six games – lost by 26 vs Utah State, lost by 7 vs Air Force, and lost by 7 vs New Mexico. This seems like a lot of points to be giving one of the more storied non Power 5 programs in a game where we feel the teams are quite close. NIU has 65 wins since 2010 topped only by Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State over that time period. Two of the Huskies losses this year came to close out the season with injuries at QB. Two others were tight games on the road against Power 5 teams Ohio State (lost by 7) and Boston College (lost by 3). NIU is 3-1 ATS as a dog this year and an impressive 25-9 ATS their last 34 in that role! The Huskies have lost 3 straight bowl games and they are sick of hearing about it. Expect a hungry and solid Northern Illinois team to keep this game close. |
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12-20-15 | Bengals -5 v. 49ers | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE YEAR This line is set too low. No need to over react with Bengal QB Andy Dalton out here. Let’s not forget that his replacement AJ McCarron actually had decent numbers last week if you minus his 2 picks (22 for 32 for 280 yards and 2 TD’s). Let’s also not forget that McCarron will have the entire week to prepare with the starters AND it’s not as if he needs to light it up as the QB on the other side is Blaine Gabbert who has a lifetime record of 7-25 as a starter. Even if we call it “even” at the QB spot, the Bengals are superior almost everywhere else. This is a 10-3 team, off a loss, that is still fighting for their division title playing one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Bengals have the most efficient offense in the NFL and the 8th most efficient defense. The Niners are 30th and 31st in those categories. Sure San Fran is a respectable 3-3 at home but since catching Minnesota off guard here to start the year, their other home wins have come by 1 point over Atlanta (who has lost 6 straight games) and by 5 over Baltimore (who has a 4-9 record). This is a huge game for the superior team and the line is more than manageable. Take Cincinnati. |
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12-20-15 | Bears +5.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +5.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH We’ve felt all season that Minnesota was playing above their heads and they weren’t as good as their record might indicate. After starting the year winning 7 of their first 9 games, they are now proving us correct losing 3 of their last 4 games. Despite their 8-5 record, the Vikes are getting outgained by 25 yards per game. The Bears have lost 2 straight but as usual, both went down to the wire. In fact, Chicago has been right there in the vast majority of their games and could have a much better record. In fact, since their poor 0-3 start to the season, the Bears most recent 5 losses have all come by 3 or fewer points or in overtime. Despite their losing record, Chicago is outgaining their opponents by 30 YPG. These two met earlier this year and the Bears blew a TD lead with under 2:00 minutes left in a 23-20 loss. The Bears are just 1-6 at home but have a winning 4-2 mark on the road with wins over Green Bay & KC. These two NFC North rivals have had each of their last 5 meetings decided by 8 points or less. Another close game here and we’ll grab the points. |
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12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants +4 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a MUCH bigger game for the host Giants. They are tied atop the NFC East with Washington & Philly and simply can’t afford a slip up. Carolina has already clinched the AFC South and a bye and they will almost assuredly be the top seed in the NFC. There has been talk about head coach Ron Rivera giving some of his key players a break down the stretch to get them ready for the playoffs. Rivera’s team is a bit banged up including QB Newton, RB Stewart (out), TE Olsen, and LB Kuechly all nursing injuries. Watch for him to be very careful with this team moving forward. The Panthers are coming off an easy home win over a struggling Atlanta team but in their previous road tilt they were taken to the wire in New Orleans. The G-Men are 3-3 at home but their losses have all come by 4 points or less including a 1-point loss to New England and an OT loss to the Jets. The Giants have played nearly everyone close as 6 of their 7 wins have come by 6 points or fewer. We’ve got a feeling this one could be an upset. Take the points. |
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12-19-15 | Arizona v. New Mexico +10 | Top | 45-37 | Win | 100 | 235 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Mexico +10 over Arizona, Saturday, December 19th at 2:00 PM ET - NEW MEXICO BOWL New Mexico is thrilled to be playing in the post-season for the first time since 2007. Not only that, they get to play a home game! This is a Lobo team that was flying completely under the radar with a 7-5 record. They were under rated as well as proven by their spreads and results late in the season. The Lobos won 3 of their last 4 games outright as DOUBLE DIGIT underdogs. They topped Air Force in the season finale 47-35 as an 11-point dog. That’s the same Air Force team that won the Mountain West Mountain Division and played in the conference championship game. Their other two wins down the stretch were over Boise State by 7 as a 31-point dog and Utah State by 1 as a 20.5 point dog. New Mexico is one of the top rushing offenses in the nation averaging just under 250 YPG rushing on 47 carries. They should have success against an Arizona defense allowing 188 YPG on the ground this season. It’s also a “funky” offense to prepare for and one that Arizona doesn’t see during the regular season. We’re not so sure the Wildcat players will be interested in preparing for this offense as they were expecting MUCH bigger things this season but instead get a lower tier bowl bid with a 6-6 record. Zona QB Solomon is questionable with a concussion and if he can’t go we like this one even better. Either way we like New Mexico getting the hefty points here. |
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12-17-15 | Bucs +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay +2.5 over St. Louis - Thursday at 8:30 PM ET This is a bad match up for the Rams in our opinion. The St Louis offense stinks right now. They rank 31st in the NFL in total yards and they can’t pass the ball (dead last in the NFL) because of their QB situation. Case Keenum gets his 3rd start of the season tonight and in his other 2 starts STL has done nothing through the air (136 yards & 124 yards passing). The problem is, Tampa has a very good run defense (allowing 94 YPG) so we don’t see the Rams doing much offensively tonight. Really tough to lay points with an offense that averages only 16 PPG and team that has been outgained 5 straight weeks. The Rams have scored just 6 offensive TD’s in their last 5 games. The Bucs have been a surprise this year. They are still alive for an NFC playoff berth so this is a big game for them. Tampa has outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are off a home loss to New Orleans so we look for them to be extra hungry here. After a rough start to the season rookie QB Jameis Winston has played very well with 12 TD’s and just 4 picks over his last 9 games. The 6-7 Bucs have actually played better than that record indicates outgaining opponents 6.0 YPP to just 5.3 YPP. Tampa is 3-3 on the year away from home with wins over the Eagles, Saints, and Falcons. The better team is the dog here and we like Tampa. |
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12-14-15 | Giants +1 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +1 over Miami, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants still have much more to play for as a win tonight keeps them in a tie for 1st place in the NFC East. The Fins are way out of the playoff race. New York has lost 3 straight but they’ve been right there in every game. Those losses include a 1-point setback to New England, a 6-point loss @ Washington, and an OT loss to the Jets. The Giants led both the Pats & Jets with under 2:00 remaining in the game. Miami had a couple of high effort games immediately after the firing of head coach Philbin but they have tanked it since. After beating Tennessee & Houston after the firing of Philbin, the Fins have since gone 2-4. Their two wins were “lucky” in our opinion as they beat the Eagles by 1-point but got outgained by 150 yards and beat Baltimore (without Flacco) by 2-points but were outgained again by 150 yards. All 4 of their losses during this stretch have come by double digits. NYG are the better team with much more to play for. Take Eli Manning and company tonight. |
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12-13-15 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Houston, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET After winning their first 10 games of the season the Pats have now lost back to back games for just the 3rd time since the start of the 2010 season. New England has not lost 3 games in a row since 2002. They are now 31-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss. The odds are with us that they’ll get it done here. Last week’s loss to Philly can be tossed aside. New England jumped out to a 14-0 lead but had one of the “unluckiest” games we’ve seen. They outgained the Eagles by 180 yards but Philly scored on a 99-yard interception return, an 83-yard punt return, and an fumble returned for a TD. The Eagle offense actually only scored 14 points and had just 248 total yards in their 35-27 win. Houston had somewhat of a resurgence over the past month and a half but most of their wins came against lower tier teams. Heading into their game last Sunday @ Buffalo, the Texans had won 5 of 6 with their wins coming over Jacksonville, Tennessee, New Orleans, NY Jets, and Cincinnati (the only top tier team). Last week the Texans came back down to earth in their 30-21 loss @ Buffalo. Houston is decent, but New England and Tom Brady will be out for blood after losing 2 in a row and at this low number we have to take the Pats. |
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12-13-15 | Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 96 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oakland +8 over Denver, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Denver offense looked terrible last week against one of the worst defenses in the league (San Diego). The Broncos offense tallied just 293 yards and only scored 10 points (they have a defensive TD) against a Charger defense that has allowed 27 PPG and 370 YPG this season. The Broncos were able to still pick up the 17-3 win against a San Diego offense that can’t run the ball at all and has been held to 3 points in 2 of their last 3 games. Much has been made of QB Brock Osweiler and his 3-0 record but the fact is those wins were by 2 points vs Chicago, in OT vs a very depleted New England team that has now lost 2 straight games, and last week vs a Charger team heading south in a hurry. We still feel Denver is over valued and this is a nice spot to go against them with huge games vs Pittsburgh & Cincinnati on deck. The Raiders have had a rough go over the last month losing 4 of their last 5 games but they have been “right there” in most of them. They lost by 3 @ Pittsburgh, by 5 @ a now hot Detroit, and despite losing by 14 last week to the sizzling Chiefs, they actually outgained KC by 130 yards and they were +12 first downs. Oakland has been waiting for this game after losing 16-10 at home earlier in the year despite Denver not scoring a single offensive TD. The Raiders showed some life offensively last week and we think they do enough to keep this game close. Too many points here and we grab Oakland. |
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12-13-15 | Steelers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR We view this 7-5 Steeler team as one of the best in the NFL right now. They might be playing as well as anyone right now. They are off a game last Sunday in which they crushed Indianapolis 45-10 outgaining the Colts by almost 300 yards! A week earlier this Pitt team completely outplayed Seattle on the road outgaining them by over 100 yards but lost a close game due to a -4 turnover margin. With QB Ben Roethlisberger now back in the line up and healthy, Pittsburgh has outgained each of their last 5 opponents by a combined total of 718 yards. The offense is clicking as they are averaging 36 PPG over their last 4. In those four games the Steeler offense has put up 597, 538, 522, and 459 yards. Cincy is 10-2 but they are not playing their best football right now and we feel Pittsburgh is the better team at this point in the season. The Bengals are 3-2 their last 5 games but their wins in that stretch have come against Cleveland (twice) & St. Louis. Their losses were at home to Houston and @ Arizona. These two teams met back on November 1st and Pittsburgh knows they gave one away in that game. The Steelers lost 10-6 but outgained Cincinnati 356 to 296. The Black & Gold were leading that game with under 3:00 minutes remaining but gave up a TD & FG in the final minutes. If it weren’t for 3 Roethlisberger interceptions ALL in his own territory and leading to 10 of Cincy’s 16 points, we have no doubt the Steelers win that game. To say the Steelers have had success playing @ Cincinnati would be an understatement. Since 1991, the Men of Steel have won 20 of their 25 games @ Cincinnati. That includes an easy 42-21 whipping of the Bengals last year as a 3-point dog. This is a MONSTER game for Pittsburgh. Sitting at 7-5 they need this game to keep their playoff hopes moving forward. The Bengals are sitting in a much better spot and this is not a must win for them. Pittsburgh is the better team right and now and we’re getting points. We’ll take them. |
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12-13-15 | Bills -1 v. Eagles | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 93 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -1 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Heading into last week it looked to most like the Eagles had quit. There were rumblings of a divided locker room and players not agreeing with Chip Kelly, thus quitting on their coach. They had lost 3 straight games and it wasn’t pretty. They lost at home to a bad Miami team and then were crushed in back to back games vs Tampa & Detroit. Did any of that change last week with their 35-27 win over New England? We don’t think so. Let’s face it, the Eagles had luck on their side last week. Despite the win, they were outgained by 180 yards but were able to score TD’s on an 83-yard punt return, a 99-yard interception return, AND a blocked punt return. The Philly offense only accounted for 248 total yards and 2 TD’s. They were also -12 first downs and minus nearly 10 minutes in time of possession. A very, very deceiving win. This team still isn’t very good and they don’t believe in their coach. They are facing a Buffalo team that is playing very well right now. The Bills knocked off a red hot Houston team last week and they have won 3 of their last 5. Their 2 losses during that stretch came on the road @ New England by 7 and @ red hot KC by 8. Those games both went to the wire and were undecided late. Buffalo is 3-3 on the road this year and still playing hard as they try to make the playoffs with a current 6-6 record. Philly has almost no home field advantage. They are just 2-3 SU here this year and 21-26 SU their last 47 home games. Their spread record during that stint is only 18-29 ATS. Despite their “lucky” win last week, this Eagle team is heading in the wrong direction getting outgained by 520 yards over their last 3 games. Take Buffalo here. |
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12-13-15 | Redskins v. Bears -3 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -125 | 93 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Bears are off a home OT loss last Sunday to San Francisco. Despite the loss, Chicago was +7 in first downs, +73 yards, and +13:00 minutes in time of possession. They also had 1 turnover (0 turnovers for the Niners) but it was a costly one as it was a Cutler interception returned for a TD. The Bears missed 2 FG’s and were in San Francisco territory on 8 of their 13 offensive drives. Conversely, the Niners only crossed midfield 3 times before their 71-yard TD pass on their first offensive play in overtime. Chicago should have won that game easily and we expect a huge effort on Sunday as they are now in desperation mode with a record of 5-7. Washington is working on a short week after losing to arch rival Dallas on Monday night. It will be a tough turnaround for the Skins after a huge division game. Not only that, Washington thought they had pushed the game into overtime scoring they tying TD with 44 seconds remaining only to watch the Cowboys quickly get into FG range and hit a 54 yarder to win 19-16. The Redskins have actually been fairly solid at home but they flat out stink on the road. They are 0-5 away from home losing by an average margin of -15 PPG. The Bears have the better offensive AND defensive numbers on the season. Chicago is +9 YPG on the year while Washington is -30 YPG on the season. We like the Bears to bounce back after a game they should never have lost and pick up a home win on Sunday. |
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12-06-15 | Colts v. Steelers -9 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -9 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Colts have been outgained in 9 of their last 10 including last week’s win at home vs Tampa. Hasselbeck is 3-0 beating Tampa, Jacksonville, and Houston but Indy was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined margin of -132 yards. Their luck runs out here against a very good Pittsburgh game. The Steelers, who in our opinion are one of the best teams in the NFL, are in must win mode with a 6-5 record. They outplayed Seattle on the road last week in a 39-32 loss outgained the Hawks by over 100 yards. 4 interceptions were the difference in that game. Roethlisberger has been cleared to play after a concussion last week and we look for Pittsburgh to put up big numbers again offensively. They have outgained each of their last 4 opponents by a combined 420 yards. On the season Pittsburgh is +0.7 YPP while Indy is -0.7 YPP. Last year the Steeler walloped a good Indy team 51-34 putting up almost 700 total yards. That was WITH Andrew Luck at QB. Pittsburgh is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner making them very dangerous. Steelers win by at least 2 TD’s on Sunday. |
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12-05-15 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Iowa | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -3.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET MSU comes into this game with one loss vs undefeated Iowa yet Sparty is the favorite. MSU had a “weird” year as far as the spread goes. They were overvalued early in the season as they didn’t cover a single game in their first 6 starts losing those games by -46.5 points to the number (an average of 7.7 PPG behind the spread). However, since that terrible spread run, MSU has covered 5 of 6 down the stretch capturing those games by a whopping +70 points above the number (an average of 11.6 PPG above the spread). We could now make a case that they are actually undervalued based on those numbers. The only game they didn’t cover in the last 6 was @ Nebraska where they lost by 1 point as a 3.5 point favorite. The Spartans actually led that game by 12 points with under 2:00 remaining and the Huskers pulled off the miracle, and controversial, comeback. If not for that, we’re staring at two undefeated Big Ten teams facing off for all the marbles. While Michigan State struggled at times against lower tier Big Ten teams (Purdue, Rutgers, etc…) they stepped up big in their big games beating both Michigan & Ohio State on the road. While their Michigan win was considered quite lucky with a blocked punt return as time expired, they dominated the game statistically. In fact, if you look at those two big wins from a statistical standpoint, there is no doubt who the best team was. In those two games (Michigan & Ohio State) combined, MSU was +22 first downs & +318 total yards. And let’s not forget they played @ OSU with their back up QB. Starting QB Cook is back at full strength and ready to go after a very good performance at home vs Penn State last week. Iowa closed out their undefeated regular season by holding on for a 28-20 win over Nebraska. The Hawks were outgained in that game 433 to 250 and the Huskers took 39 more offensive snaps! So how did Iowa pull it off? They can thank Nebraska QB Armstrong who made a number of poor decisions on his way to throwing 4 interceptions. The Hawkeyes squeaked by in 3 of their final 4 wins holding off Indiana, Minnesota, & Nebraska in tight games. Iowa isn’t really great at anything in particular ranking 2nd in the Big Ten in scoring offense, 4th in scoring defense, 5th in total offense, and 5th in total defense. The Hawkeyes had only one really big win over a solid team and that was a 30 point thrashing of Northwestern. Their other wins against solid teams came by 3 at home vs Pitt, by 4 @ Wisconsin. These two played 4 common opponents this season (Purdue, Maryland, Nebraska, & Indiana). MSU’s combined stats vs those foes were +45 points, +221 total yards, & -10 points to the spread. Iowa’s combined stats in those games were +52 points, -99 total yards, & +2.5 points to the spread. Iowa skirted through an easy Big Ten schedule to get to this point. MSU, on the other hand, beat all of the Big Ten’s best (Michigan & OSU) to get here. Sparty is the better team and they show it on Saturday. |
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11-29-15 | Steelers +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-39 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH The Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger healthy are definitely the better team here in our opinion. Seattle just isn’t the Seattle of last year. A team that was seemed invincible at home already has 2 losses here and their home wins have come against Chicago (without Cutler), Detroit by 3, and San Fran. Pittsburgh is better than their 6-4 record as 2 of their 4 losses have come with Roethlisberger out. The two losses with him in the line up were tight games vs two of the NFL’s best (New England & Cincy). When Big Ben is in the line up, the Steelers have outgained every opponent this season. They’ve also had 2 weeks to prepare for this one giving them a huge advantage. The Seahawks have beaten up on the weaklings of the NFL and struggled with the good teams. They are 5-5 and have yet to beat a team with a current record above .500. The Seattle defense, which was impenetrable last year, has already allowed 27 or more points 5 times this season. Seattle beat SF last week and they are 0-6 ATS their last 6 following an outright win. Pitt thrives as a dog with a 32-19-3 ATS mark since 2004. We like the Steelers on Sunday. |
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11-29-15 | Bills v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -5.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFL HOME CHALK GAME OF THE MONTH The Bills are in a tough scheduling situation here coming off a HUGE Monday night affair against the Patriots and now travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team playing extremely well right now. The Chiefs really struggled defensively to start the season but in their last six games they've allowed just 18, 16, 13, 10, 13 and 3 points or just 12.1PPG. In their last three games the Chiefs have allowed the second fewest yards defensively in the entire NFL They've also found their rhythm offensively by scoring 23, 45, 29 and 33 points their last four games and they outgained all four of those foes. Buffalo has now been outgained their last two games and they could struggle offensively here as starting QB Tyrod Taylor is out which means EJ Manuel will be the starter. Manuel is 2-2 SU this season in his starts with 3 TD's and 3 INT's. Lifetime he's 9-10 as a starter, 4-6 on the road. Kansas City is better in terms of yards per play offense and defense and they've won their last two games at home by 35 and 10 points respectively. Kansas City is a wallet stuffing 8-3 ATS their last eleven home games and we expect them to win this home game by more than a TD. |
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11-28-15 | Arizona State v. California -3.5 | Top | 46-48 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* California -3.5 over Arizona State, Saturday at 10 PM ET Cal has a lot to play for on Senior Day. A win pushes them to 7-5 and their first winning season since 2011. They are bowl eligible but obviously can move up the pecking order with a win on Saturday. The Bears are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming at the hands of USC 27-21. They catch ASU coming off their huge rivalry win over Arizona, a game which made the Devils bowl eligible. We expect a letdown here from the Devils and that won’t get it done as they are already a poor road team at 1-3 on the season. Cal actually is off a 35-22 loss @ Stanford but the Bears, with the exception of the final score, played very well. The Bears outgained what many consider to be the best team in the Pac 12 by 140 yards. Cal has the much better QB in Jared Goff and ASU’s top offensive weapon, RB Richard is most likely out here with an ankle problem. Cal is the better team in our opinion and should be the more motivated one as well. |
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11-28-15 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State +1 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State +1 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - ASA's RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR The host of the annual Egg Bowl has won 10 of the last 11 meetings and we think MSU (the home team) gets the win again this season. Ole Miss is just 2-2 on the road this year and they’ve been outgained in three of their four games away from home. They lost @ Florida & Memphis by double digits. Their road wins came at a struggling Auburn by 8 and 43-37 @ Bama early in the season when the Tide outgained Ole Miss but had a whopping 5 turnovers. This is a tough match up for the Rebel defense facing a red hot MSU QB Dak Prescott who has over 1,100 yards passing in his last 3 games. The Ole Miss defense has allowed over 1,000 yards passing in their last 3 games and those were against fairly pedestrian passing attacks (LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn). The Bulldogs have hit their stride winning 4 of their last 5 games with the only loss coming to Alabama. Ole Miss has been outgained at home each of the last two weeks beating LSU and losing to Arkansas. State has won 7 of the last 8 meetings here in Starkville and there is really no reason the Rebs should be favored here. We’ll take the value with Mississippi State at home. |
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11-27-15 | Oregon State v. Oregon -35 | Top | 42-52 | Loss | -106 | 47 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon -35 over Oregon State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK This is a total mismatch. OSU is struggling, they can’t stop the run, and they are really banged up and simply ready to end the season. Oregon is hitting their stride. After struggling early in the year with QB Adams injured, they have kicked it into high gear with Adams now at 100%. The last 3 weeks the Ducks have crushed Cal outgaining them by 345 yards, beat Stanford on the road and then crushed USC last week. OSU is clearly running out of gas. They are 2-9 on the season and nothing on the horizon except ending a disappointing year on Saturday. In their last 3 games they’ve lost to UCLA 41-0, lost to Cal 54-24, and lost to Washington 52-7. It could have been much worse as UCLA led 41-0 with 6:00 minutes still remaining in the THIRD QUARTER! Last week Washington led 52-0 with 5:00 minutes still remaining in the THIRD QUARTER! In those three games they allowed almost 2,000 total yards and a whopping 862 yards on the ground. The Beaver offense has been terrible this year and held to 13 points or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. That will be a big problem here trying to keep up with an Oregon offense that is clicking averaging 286 YPG rushing and 250 YPG passing. The Beavs, as bad as they are, continue to be over rated by the oddsmakers. They have lost 7 of their last 8 games to the spread and many have not even been close. In those 8 games, they’ve underperformed the number (figuring game with spread involved) by a crazy -108 points. That’s losing to the spread by an average of almost 2 TD’s per game. The Ducks can name this score. Lay it. |
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11-27-15 | Iowa v. Nebraska +2 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +2 over Iowa, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH This line is very telling. Iowa is undefeated and ranked in the top 5 yet only favored by 1 point @ a 5-6 Nebraska team? We think the Huskers pull the upset here. Nebraska is coming off a bye and they have to win this game to qualify for a bowl game. That is BIG here in Nebraska where bowl games are an annual right of passage. This program has only missed the post-season twice since 1969 and you can bet coach Mike Riley has brought that up over their 2 weeks preparing for this game. Despite their 5-6 record, the Huskers are a solid football team. 5 of those losses came in the final few seconds and by a total of 13 points. They are the only team to beat Michigan State this year. NU is outgaining their opponents by +30 YPG and by +0.4 YPP. They are definitely better than their record. Iowa has been skating by for 3 weeks now. They have already won the Big Ten West and they are locked into the Conference Championship Game next week. The pressure of their undefeated season is mounting. They struggled to get by Indiana on the road three weeks ago, beat Minnesota 40-35 two weeks ago, and then beat a bad Purdue team last week but were outgained in the game. Iowa thrives on running the ball and that’s Nebraska’s strength (109 YPG allowed on just 3.6 YPC). The Husker defense has struggled against the pass, but Iowa is not a prolific passing team. Everything points to an upset here and we’ll call for Nebraska to win this one outright at home. |
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11-26-15 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +9 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH The Bears are playing their best football of the year right now and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they pull this upset. Chicago is 4-3 their last 7 games, however they are “this close” to being 7-0 as all three losses were down to the wire with losing margins of 2, 3, and 3 points. Last week they took Denver to the wire in a 17-15 loss. The Packers are getting too much credit here in our opinion. Let’s not forget that before last week’s win @ Minnesota, the Pack lost 3 in a row including here at Lambeau to a 1-7 (at the time) Detroit team. Now they are laying almost double digits to an improving Chicago team? We don’t think so. The Packers are not as good as their 7-3 record might indicate. They were outgained last week @ Minnesota and have been out yarded in 5 of their last 6 games. In fact, for the season Green Bay is -27 YPG and -0.3 YPP which aren’t the normal numbers for a team that has won 70% of their games so far this season. Chicago has better overall YPG numbers on both sides of the ball as they are +12 YPG on the season. These two met earlier in the year and Chicago outgained the Packers, had more first downs, and a better time of possession in a 31-23 loss. After their rough start, the Bears have been competitive for 7 straight weeks and we see no reason that changes vs on over valued Packer team. |
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11-24-15 | Bowling Green v. Ball State +23.5 | Top | 48-10 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ball State +23 over Bowling Green, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET BG is already locked into the MAC Championship game next week so how much motivation will they have for this final road game? Probably not a whole lot. Their goal is to win and get to the championship game without any big injuries. They don’t need to win this game by 30 points. While Ball State has fallen short of expectations this year, they have been competitive at home and we think they bring their best for their home & season finale tonight. The two top tier MAC teams they’ve played here at home are Central Michigan (lost by 2) and Toledo (lost by 14). For comparison’s sake, Toledo is definitely on par with Bowling Green and actually beat the Falcons on the road last week 44-28. That’s what makes this line so interesting. Toledo was -5.5 here @ Ball State and now the Cards are getting a full 23 points from a comparable team in Bowling Green! Another example, Northern Illinois is the top team in the other half of the MAC and will meet BG in the Championship game if they are able to beat Ohio at home tonight. Yet NIU was favored by just 10.5 AT HOME vs Ball State a few weeks ago. The situation and value is definitely with Ball State and we’ll grab it. |
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11-23-15 | Bills +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BILLS - Tonight we play on the Buffalo Bills plus the points over the host New England Patriots. These two teams met earlier this year with the Pats winning in Buffalo by 8 points. Even though the Patriots have had dominating results this year (+14.9 point differential is best in NFL) we can't ignore the points in this matchup. Of the Patriots 9 wins this season 5 have been by 8-points or less and their 4 blowout wins have come against Jacksonville, Dallas (without Romo), Miami and Washington who have a combined record of 15-25 SU. New England put up nearly 470 yards of passing offense in the first meeting but that was with RB Dion Lewis and WR Julian Edelman who are both out here with injuries. Yes, Tom Brady will move on and still be great but he'll miss Edelman who was first on the Pats roster in targets at 88, 2nd in receiving yards and 2nd in TD receptions. The Bill are finally healthy on offense after QB Taylor, RB's McCoy and Williams and WR Watkins all missed time with injuries and they put up 55 combined points the past two weeks. Even though we feel Rex Ryan is over-rated as a head coach, he does know how to prepare for the Patriots. Earlier this season when the Bills lost by 8 it was a 5-point game with just over a minute to play. Including his time with the Jets, Rex Ryan and the Patriots games have been decided by 8 points or less in 6 of the last 7 meeting, 3-points or less in 5 of those. Grab the points here in what shapes up to be a close game. |
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11-22-15 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 33-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +3 over KC, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET We like the Bolts getting points here. KC is coming off a HUGE win @ Denver and now they head west again for the 2nd consecutive week. San Diego is off a bye week where they were able to regroup and get ready for this one. The Chargers are much better than their 2-7 record and should be very hungry off a bye. San Diego is outgaining their opponents by 50 YPG. They have outgained 7 of their 9 opponents this season. Offensively the Chargers are 4th in the NFL in total offense (413 YPG), 6th in YPP (5.9), and QB Rivers is 8th in the NFL in QBR. Those numbers do not add up to a team with just 2 wins at this point of the season. Five of their seven losses have come by 8 points or less with four of those coming by 5 points or less. They’ve been right there in nearly every game and we think coming off the bye week they get in the win column on Sunday. This line has now been adjusted too far in our opinion as San Diego is a home dog for the first time this year while KC is a road favorite for the first time. Take the points. |
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11-22-15 | Broncos -1 v. Bears | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -1 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Osweiler being inserted as the starting QB is actually a positive development in our opinion. He can’t be any worse than Manning was. Peyton’s QBR is 31st in the NFL and he has thrown 17 picks compared to just 9 TD’s. We think Osweiler will give the Broncos a better chance on offense. Defensively Denver is fantastic. They are #1 in the NFL in YPG allowed and YPP allowed. Not only that, they are coming off a “poor” performance allowing the Chiefs to score 29 points but still held KC to just barely over 300 total yards. Expect a solid performance here from the Denver defense. Chicago is now the flavor of the week after beating San Diego & St Louis on back to back weekends. Chicago’s 4 wins have come against KC, Oakland, St. Louis, and San Diego, all teams that currently have losing records. Three of those four wins came by 1, 2, and 3 points. They really shouldn’t be laying points to the 7-2 Broncos in our opinion. Denver has HUGE edges defensively allowing 4.3 YPP (to 5.8 for Chicago), 3.5 YPR (to 4.6 for Bears), and 5.3 yards per pass attempt (to 6.7 for Chicago). Bears are just 5-17 ATS their last 22 home games and we’ll gladly take the points here. |
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11-21-15 | Tennessee v. Missouri +7 | Top | 19-8 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri +7 over Tennessee, Saturday at 6:15 PM CT - ASA's CFB HOME DOG GAME OF THE MONTH We like Mizzou at home plus the points over the visiting Tennessee Volunteers. Emotionally the Tigers have an edge here as they are playing their final home game under coach Gary Pinkel who announced his retirement after being diagnosed with lymphoma. With a win the Tigers become Bowl eligible and this senior class will play with high energy here to get it done. Missouri has struggled offensively this season but they looked like they found their rhythm last week against a solid BYU defense when they put up 434 yards of total offense and dominated the time of possession 39 minutes to 21 for the Cougars. Defense is another story though as Mizzou is one of the best defensive units in all of college football. The Tigers give up just 16PPG (6th), 308YPG (10th), 2.9 yards per rush allowed and 4.2 yards per play (7th). Tennessee's vaunted offense with QB Dobbs and RB Hurd will struggle to move the ball against this Tiger defense. Tennessee secured their Bowl game with a win last week and they have their big rival Vanderbilt up next. The Vols are in an unfamiliar role here as a road favorite as they are just 2-3 ATS since 2011. |
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11-21-15 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -5 | Top | 51-50 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Arkansas -5 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - ASA's SEC GAME OF THE YEAR The Razors have really turned their season around after a poor start. They’ve now won 5 of their last 6 games both SU & ATS with their only outright loss @ Alabama 27-14. They are off back to back road wins vs two of the SEC’s best teams (Ole Miss & LSU). Mississippi State is in a terrible spot here. The Bulldogs are off their much anticipated home game with Alabama. There was a lot of hype entering the game and MSU was trounced 31-6 leaving them deflated. They have a game next week vs in-state arch rival Vandy so this will be a tough game for them both emotionally and physically after playing Bama last week. The Dogs look like they might be wearing down up front defensively as they’ve allowed Mizzou (215 yards rushing) and Bama (263 yards rushing) to roll up big numbers on the ground the last two weeks. That’s a bad sign when facing an Arkansas offense that will absolutely take advantage of that. The Razors have topped 200 yards rushing in 6 of their last 8 games. Arkansas is just happy to be home as they are playing just their 3rd true home game since mid September. They have huge momentum coming into this game after ripping the LSU defense for an impressive 7.9 YPP last week. This number is too small as we expect Arkansas to roll at home. |
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11-21-15 | USC v. Oregon -4 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon -4 over USC, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK We love the value with Oregon at home minus the points over the visiting Trojans. Oregon lost a couple games earlier this season and fell out of favor with the public and the oddsmakers and now we get them at a bargain price here. When the Ducks have a healthy starting QB Adams in the backfield they are extremely dangerous and he takes this team to another dimension. After a hand injury he struggled to find his throwing touch but now that he can grip the football again the Ducks offense has put up 61, 44 and 38 points the past three weeks and the 38 came in a win over Stanford last week who is ranked 28th in Total defense (USC 50th). Oregon has a huge rushing advantage here as they average nearly 300YPG on the ground which is the 5th highest number in all of college football we love strong running teams as low favorites or underdogs. Oregon falls into several different rushing angles that have produced over 68% wins dating back to the late 1980's. Since 2008 the Ducks have been single digit home favorites and they are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS. They are 45-6 SU at home as a chalk since 2008 and with this line so low we like our odds of winning and covering. |
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11-19-15 | Titans v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
PLAY ON: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS In breaking down this game we find the Jags rate slightly higher in terms of offensive efficiency rankings while the Titans are barely better than the Jaguars in defensive efficiency statistics. But Jacksonville has been able to score points while Tennessee hasn't. The Titans have scored 13 or less points in 5 of their last six games and the one game they did top 13-points it was against the Saints who don't stop anyone (defensive coach Ryan fired this week). Last week the Titans managed just 242 total yards of offense and 11 first downs against the Panthers. Jacksonville has put up 20+ points in 5 straight games with QB Bortles leading the way. Bortles has 19 TD passes this year which is the 7th best number in the league. The Jags are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games against a team with a sub .500 record while the Titans have just 2 spread wins in their last 16 games versus losing teams. Jacksonville won't need to score many points to cover this spread as the Titans offense is really struggling to put up points. Lay it. |
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11-18-15 | Central Michigan -10 v. Kent State | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan -10 over Kent State - Wednesday at 8:00 PM on ESPN2 CMU still has a lot to play for as they come in at 5-5 and most likely have to win here and at home vs Eastern Michigan to get to a bowl game. Our opinion is Central Michigan is better than their .500 record might indicate. Their 5 losses came against very good competition. The Chippewas losses came at the hands of Oklahoma State by 13 (OSU still undefeated), Syracuse by 3 in OT (CMU outgained the Orange by almost 200 yds), Michigan State by 20 (game was much closer than score & CMU actually outgained MSU), Toledo by 5 points (one of top teams in MAC), and Western Michigan by 2 (one of top teams in MAC). Kent has officially been eliminated from Bowl consideration with their 27-0 loss @ Ohio a week ago. Kent has been outscored 93-17 in their last 3 games (all losses) and outgained by a combined 737 yards in those games. The Flashes are decent on defense but they can’t score. They have scored a TOTAL of 59 points in MAC play (9.8 PPG). They have been outscored by almost 100 points in MAC play this year. The Flashes average almost 10 points less than the next worst scoring team in the conference and they average nearly 100 yards less than the next worst total offense in the league. CMU averages 30 PPG in MAC play and almost 400 YPG. The Chippewas are the much better team and they have an offense that can put points on the board. Kent won’t be able to keep up. Lay it. |
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11-14-15 | Washington State +10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington State +10 over UCLA, Saturday at 10:45 PM ET - ASA's POWER 5 DOG OF THE MONTH Washington State continues to fly under the radar despite playing very good football. The Cougs are 4-2 in Pac 12 play and they are only a few plays away from being 6-0. Their losses came at the hands of Stanford 30-28 and WSU dominated that game outgained the Cardinal by 130 yards. Their other loss was a 6-point setback at Cal, a game the Bears scored on a 45 yards fumble return & put up a TD with 40 seconds remaining to win. UCLA is off a 41-0 shutout vs by far the worst team in the Pac 12 Oregon State. The Bruins have been far from a dominant home team this season. They beat BYU by 1-point here, lost by 15 to Arizona State, and beat a poor Colorado team by just 4. We have these teams rated almost dead even on a neutral field. If you look at the yardage and scoring margins, you’d have a hard time saying one is better than the other. Yet we’re getting double digits with a WSU team that has already beaten Oregon & Arizona on the road in league play. WSU coach Mike Leach is 11-3 ATS as a Pac 12 road dog and we think he gets another ATS win here. Take the generous points as this one should be close. |
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11-14-15 | Temple v. South Florida +3 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Florida +3 over Temple, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - ASA's AAC GAME OF THE WEEK We’ve kept a close eye on the Owls all season long. They are a very solid team, but not a dominant 8-1 type team. This is a team that has one loss yet outgains their opponents by just 26 yards per game. This will be Temple’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they have a massive game on deck at home vs Memphis. If you simply look at the score, you’d think the Owls dominated @ SMU last week winning 60-40. The fact is, SMU had the ball with under 3:00 minutes remaining down just 45-40. A crazy string of events to close out that game made it look much worse that it was. USF is an under valued team in our opinion. They are currently 5-4 and this is a HUGE home game for the Bulls. A win gets them bowl eligible which is very important as they play a very good Cincinnati team and @ UCF to close out the season. The Bulls have been playing very good football as of late. They have won 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss coming by 12 points @ Navy, a team that crushed an undefeated Memphis last week. In that stretch the Bulls have beaten Syracuse (by 21), UConn (on the road) and ECU (on the road). Temple could be a bit “spent” both emotionally and physically after playing Notre Dame two weeks ago and now being on the road for the 2nd straight week (long travel from Philly to Texas last week & Philly to Florida this week). We smell an upset and we’ll take the points. |
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11-14-15 | Washington v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Arizona State -2.5 over Washington, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - ASA's PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR Washington is a young team coming off two huge home games. They beat Arizona and then lost to Utah last week. The Huskies have a freshman QB Browning and we think ASU’s defense will keep him confused and off his spot on Saturday. The Devils are a heavy blitzing team that likes to keep the opposing QB guessing. Sometimes that can come back to bite them if facing veteran QB’s but we think it’s a huge advantage against inexperienced signal callers. ASU puts tons of pressure on the QB as they are 3rd nationally in sacks per game and 14th in sack percentage. ASU is 4-5 and this is a very important home game for them if they want to reach a bowl game. Their most recent home game was a tough multiple OT loss to Oregon 61-55. It was a controversial ending and a game that ASU outgained the Ducks by 240 yards but lost. The Devils were favored by 2.5 in that game and now are laying only 3 vs Washington. Arizona State has beaten Washington 9 straight times and they are much better than their record. The value is with ASU here and we’ll lay it. |
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11-10-15 | Kent State +7 v. Ohio | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Kent +7 over Ohio, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET on ESPNU Ohio is really banged up right now. Their starting QB Vick is questionable with an ongoing ankle problem. Two starting LB’s are questionable, 3 DB’s are out, their starting center might not play, and we could go on. This team started the year 5-1 but since their “plague” of injuries they’ve lost 3 straight and none were close losing by margins of 38, 35, and 24 points. The Bobcat defense has been hit the hardest. After allowing 94 points over their first 6 games of the season, they have allowed a whopping 152 over their last 3! Kent isn’t great by any means but they are on par with this current Ohio squad. Getting a full TD is too much. Kent is much better defensively allowing just 4.6 YPPG compared to 6.0 YPP for Ohio. This is a big rivalry game and Kent ALWAYS comes to play for this one. In fact, their defense has not allowed Ohio to top 17 points since the 2008 season, a span of 7 games. Last year, in a tight game throughout, Ohio kicked a FG as time expired to beat Kent 17-14. That simply adds more fuel to Kent’s fire for this one. The experts are expecting a low scoring game (45 is the total) which makes it tougher to cover by a larger margin. We think this one plays out very similar to last year’s game and we’ll take the points. |
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11-09-15 | Bears +5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +5 over San Diego, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Not sure San Diego should be this type of favorite tonight. Our line on this was -3 so the value is with Chicago crossing over key numbers 3 & 4. The Chargers are 2-6 on the year and their two wins have come against Detroit by 5 & Cleveland by 3, both at home. Close games against bad teams. The Bolts will be without QB Rivers top target tonight as WR Keenan Allen is out. SD’s offense is solid but they are held back by their lack of a running game. Rookie Melvin Gordon hasn’t been given many opportunities carrying the ball only 12 or 13 times per game usually. They average only 86 YPG rushing and their offensive line is in shambles. Rivers is pretty much what they have offensively. Chicago’s pass defense ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing only 214 YPG so they match up pretty well. The Chargers defense stinks. They allow 6.3 YPP on the year which is only ahead of New Orleans. A team with a defense that bad can’t be trusted laying points above those key numbers tonight. Chicago is playing better going 2-2 their last 4 games with both losses coming by just a field goal. We look for this game to be a field goal type game either way giving us value at +4.5 or +5. Take Chicago. |
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11-08-15 | Raiders v. Steelers -4.5 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4.5 over Oakland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Many are now firmly on the Raider bandwagon and while we definitely think they are improved, this is a bad spot for them. The Raiders have won 2 straight but let’s look at each situation. Two weeks ago they beat a reeling San Diego team (2-6 record) with a banged up offensive line and the Chargers were off a long trip to Green Bay the week before. Last week they played host to the NY Jets and the flyboys QB Fitzpatrick only played a few plays before leaving with a thumb injury. That left Geno Smith at the helm in the 34-20 Jet loss. While Oakland may have won that game anyway, they have caught some breaks the last few weeks. The fact it they have been outgained in every game but 2 this year and they are -20 YPG on the season. Now they travel to Pittsburgh where they are just 1-15 their last 16 trips to the eastern time zone. The Steelers are off a loss 16-10 to the Bengals so this is a big game for them as they sit at 4-4. QB Roethlisberger is back for the 2nd straight game so he should be comfortable this week. The Steelers did lose RB Bell, however his replacement Williams has had a very solid season. Pittsburgh was a Playoff/Super Bowl type team entering the season but sit at .500 due to the absence of Roethlisberger. Oakland has come out of nowhere and not might even be a bit over valued. We like Pittsburgh with this low number at home. |
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11-08-15 | Titans +8 v. Saints | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +8 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Not sure the Saints with their terrible defense should be favored by this number over anyone. The Saints rank 31st in YPG allowed and dead last (32nd) in YPP allowed. Now what makes the big points intriguing here is that the underdog has a very good defense. Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL in total defense allowing just 316 YPG. The Titans are allowing a full TD less per game than New Orleans (22 PPG to 29 PPG). The Titans should get a jump start with a new coach as well. We like looking at “interim” coaches after a mid-season coach firing as teams tend to rally. Whisenhunt was fired after last week’s loss @ Houston and his replacement, Mularkey has head coaching experience with Buffalo. This is a very similar situation to Miami a few weeks ago when Philbin was fired and the team played a great few games after that. Tennessee QB Mariota is back and the Titans catch the Saints off a huge OT win over NY Giants (52-49). We like Tennessee to give New Orleans a run on Sunday. Take the points. |
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11-07-15 | Hawaii v. UNLV -9.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNLV -9.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - ASA's MWC GAME OF THE YEAR Look for Hawaii to be completely out of gas here. This is their 5th trip to the states in the last 7 weeks. They have not had a bye and spent more time away from home than they have at home. They are off a 58-7 loss at home to Air Force and head coach Norm Chow was fired last week. The UNLV players have been waiting for this one after a crazy loss last year @ Hawaii. The Rebs scored a TD with 15 seconds left in that game to take a 35-31 lead. In their celebration UNLV was flagged for not one, but two 15-yards penalties giving Hawaii great field position after the kickoff. UH threw a TD pass as time ran out to win. The Rainbows have been shelled on the road this year going 0-5 losing by a combined score of 132-47. UNLV has improved greatly this year. They have won only 2 games, however have been close a number of times. They were off a bye last week and facing top tier opponent Boise State. While the final score was a large margin, UNLV played well the Rebs were within 7 points entering the 4th quarter. This is just their 2nd game after the bye so the will be well rested unlike a physically whipped Hawaii team that is allowing 258 YPG rushing. This one turns into a laugher. |
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11-07-15 | Cincinnati +9 v. Houston | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +9 over Houston, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET It's common sense when looking at teams statistics you consider who teams have faced before passing final judgment. The Bearcats and Cougars are similar in terms of offensive statistics (yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play all nearly equal) but Houston rates the edges defensively in rushing and yards per play with passing stats very close. BUT the Cougars have faced a really weak schedule (85th) compared to Houston's (70th). Houston's defense is over-rated as they've faced Central Florida, Tulane and Vanderbilt their past three games and all three rank 107th or worse in total offense. With the return of QB Gunner Kiel the Bearcats offense has hit its stride the past few games. Over the last two games, he’s completed 41-of-50 for 646 yards, seven touchdowns and no picks. Cincinnati is averaging almost 39 points per game, while ranking 4th in the league in rushing and No. 1 in passing. A big concern for Houston is their offensive line and can they protect QB Ward? The Cougars started three rookie linemen last week, including true freshman Will Noble at center. It showed, with the team averaging just 2.9 yards per rush. These two teams are very similar but we like the fact the Bearcats have played a tougher schedule and have an offense capable of trading points with the Cougs. Close game - grab the points. |
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11-07-15 | Florida State +11 v. Clemson | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida State +11 over Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's ACC GAME OF THE MONTH This number is much too high in our opinion. FSU is an immensely talented team and this is their game of the year. To give you some perspective, these two teams have played 25 times since 1980 and Clemson has been favored TWICE and neither of those were close to this number. Last year FSU was a 10.5 point favorite so this line has swung a full 22 points based on where this spread currently stands (FSU +12). Another way to put this spread into perspective is taking a look back just a few weeks ago when Clemson was favored at home by 7 points vs Georgia Tech. The Noles have one loss on the season but that was a freak blocked kick return at the end of their game @ Georgia Tech. Otherwise we’d have two undefeated teams facing off here. Clemson also just had some extra pressure heaped on their shoulders being ranked #1 in the first playoff poll which came out earlier this week. They are now the targeted team and FSU has the talent to pull this upset. Clemson has skated through a rather easy schedule with the only real formidable “top 20” type team being Notre Dame. They beat the Irish by 2 points here at home but were outgained by 140 yards and by nearly a full 2 YPP. Clemson was favored by 3 in that game and now they are laying 4 times that number to a Florida State team that is every bit as talented as the Irish. FSU actually rested their top RB Cook last week (who is a bit banged up) to make sure he was ready here. Starting QB Golson also sat but should be ready here. You can bet FSU will be ultra motivated as a double digit underdog. This one stays close throughout and we wouldn’t be at all shocked for the Seminoles pull the upset. Take the points. |
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11-05-15 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10 | Top | 40-27 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -10 over Arkansas State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET App State is the best team in the Sun Belt conference. Easily the best in our opinion. They came into this season with high expectations off of a 7-5 season in 2014. They returned more starters than any other team in college football (20) and that experience has paid off this season. They Mountaineers are 7-1 on the year and a perfect 4-0 in the Sun Belt. Their only loss was to the #1 team in the most recent playoff rankings, Clemson. Even in that game if it weren’t for a pile of turnovers (4) they were fairly competitive getting outgained by just 94 yards. App State ranks #1 in the Sun Belt in almost every key category (scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, total defense, point differential, YPP differential). Arkansas State is also 4-0 in the conference but they are nowhere near as good as they have been in past years. Comparing their key numbers to Appalachian State you’ll quickly see, there is no comparison. App State has a point differential of +185 this year, Arkansas State is +33. App State is +176 YPG and +2.1 YPP on the season. Arkie State is +6 YPG and +0.0 YPP on the season. We could go on but you get the point. The Mountaineers have already played what we feel is the 2nd best Sun Belt team, Georgia Southern and beat them by 18 points. Ark State has played a much easier Sun Belt slate beating Georgia St, UL Lafayette, South Alabama, and Idaho. App State went to Arkansas St last year and won 37-32 and they are MUCH better this year while the Red Wolves are not as good. This game will go a long ways in deciding who wins the Sun Belt Title. We side with the better team at home. |
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11-05-15 | Ball State +15 v. Western Michigan | Top | 7-54 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ball State +15 over Western Michigan, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET – Western Michigan comes in with a 4-0 MAC record however they have played a ridiculously easy schedule to date. Their last 3 MAC games have come against Eastern Michigan, Miami OH, and Ohio who have a combined 2-13 conference record. Ball State, on the other hand, has 3 MAC losses but they have come at the hands of the 3 of the top 4 teams in the league (Toledo, Northern Illinois, & Central Michigan). Two of those three final scores landed under this number of (+14.5) and the only one that did not was their game at NIU where they lost by 18 and that was an 11-point game in the 4th quarter. Also, in that game @ NIU, the Cards were +10.5 and now they are getting +14.5 in this game vs a team that we have rated lower than the Huskies. Good value here. Ball State has played a very tough schedule, not only the top 3 in the MAC, but also Texas A&M and Northwestern in the pre-season so their 3-6 record is understandable. WMU has HUGE games on deck with Toledo & Northern Illinois coming up next so a look ahead is probably in order here. Last year Western Mich won by 4 in this game and most have been close. Since 2001, a span of 14 meetings, Western Michigan has beaten Ball State by more than 2 TD’s just ONCE. Take the points here. |
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11-04-15 | Ohio v. Bowling Green -19.5 | Top | 24-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Bowling Green (-) over Ohio, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN2 If we’re going to lay hefty points in any game, we like to side with teams that consistently put up big numbers against teams that struggle to score. That’s exactly what we have here. BG is averaging just under 50 PPG in conference play while Ohio is putting up 19.8. The Bobcats have been held to 17 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 games. In league play (comparing similar opponents) the Falcons are rolling up just under 600 YPG which is a full +250 yards more than Ohio. BG is also better defensively by 17 YPG (in MAC games). In league play Bowling Green has a whopping +32 PPG point differential while Ohio is -7.0. For comparison’s sake these teams have played 2 common opponents (Buffalo & Akron). Bowling Green beat Buffalo by 6 points and Akron by 49 points. Ohio lost to Buffalo by 24 points and beat Akron by 2 points. The Eagles are peaking right now winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 107-10! Ohio is heading in the opposite direction losing each of their last two games by a combined score of 31-88. We’ll lay the points on Wednesday night. |
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11-03-15 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Toledo | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois +8 over Toledo, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN2 We have these teams rated fairly evenly with a slight edge to Toledo. Not more than a full TD edge so the value is with NIU here. A quick look at the records might think you should take a strong look at a 7-0 Toledo over a 5-3 Husky team. However, NIU has played a tougher schedule. Their losses came @ Ohio State by 7, @ Boston College by 4, and @ Central Michigan by 10. However that was a BRUTAL stretch of games as all 3 losses came in 3 weeks with 3 consecutive road games. By the time they got to CMU on week 3, they were out of gas. Since that loss NIU has destroyed 3 straight teams by margins of 18, 33, and 28 points. The Huskies rushed for 273, 311, and 322 yards in those 3 games. These teams have played 2 common opponents (Ball State & EMU) and the results were fairly similar with Toledo outgaining those two by a combined 335 yards and NIU outgaining them by a combined 348 yards. For the season Northern Illinois is +1.1 YPP differential while Toledo is +1.2. The Huskies have won 5 straight in this series and we don’t see a full TD+ separating these two. Take the points. |
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11-01-15 | Packers -2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 10-29 | Loss | -119 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -2.5 over Denver, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this over rated Denver team and this is it. The Broncs, despite being 6-0, are just 8th in the NFL in point differential at +37. They’ve had a number of close games that could have gone either way. In fact, they’ve won only 1 game this year by more than a TD. We faded this team a few weeks ago @ Oakland (+4.5) but the Broncos got a little “lucky” again and won 16-10 without scoring an offensive TD. Speaking of offensive TD’s, Denver has scored just 9 of them this year in 6 games. Football outsiders has Denver ranked as THE LEAST efficient offense in the NFL. They are currently last in the NFL averaging only 5 YPP and Peyton Manning currently has the lowest QBR of any starting quarterback. That won’t get any better on Sunday as they face one of the better defenses in the NFL. Green Bay actually leads the NFL allowing only 16.8 PPG and they are rated the 7th most efficient defense. That tells us one thing. Denver’s defense is going to have to play the game of their life to win this one. Green Bay’s offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm is light years better than Denver’s offense. The Bronco defense has been really good this year but let’s look at the QB’s they’ve faces this year – Flacco, Alex Smith, Stafford, Bridgewater, Carr, and McCown. Hardly any Aaron Rodgers/Tom Brady types in there. These defenses are pretty close but we give Denver a slight edge. Offensively Green Bay has a huge edge. The Packers are 9-0 ATS off a bye under McCarthy and with this small number, we like Green Bay on Sunday night. |
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11-01-15 | Lions v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - London England KC is better than their 2-5 record in our opinion. Their losses have come at the hands of Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati (all undefeated) Minnesota, and Chicago. Their lone “bad” loss in that group was vs Chicago, a game the Chiefs led throughout but allowed the Bears to kick a buzzer beating FG. We think the get a “boost” heading to London this week off a home win over Pittsburgh last Sunday. Detroit is 1-6 and unlike KC, they look like a 1-6 team. They are 31st in the NFL in point differential at -61. Only SF is worse. They are ranked 25th in the NFL in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are 29th in scoring offense (19 PPG), dead last in rushing offense, and last in opposing QBR defense. This team just isn’t good. Now they are coming off a division home loss to Minnesota (19-28) and now win only 1 win we don’t look for them to put up much of an effort traveling to London. At this small number, we like KC on Sunday. |
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10-31-15 | Notre Dame -10.5 v. Temple | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame -10.5 over Temple, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET on ABC Temple is undefeated but they have done that against the 102nd most difficult schedule. Despite playing an ultra easy slate, the Owls have actually been outgained in 3 of their 7 games and are only +39 YPG on the season. The best teams they’ve beaten are Penn State (season opener and vs a vastly over rated team) and Cincinnati (Bearcats had 5 turnovers and outgained Temple by 260 yards). Much has been made of how “good” Temple’s defense is, however they’ve face mainly very weak offenses including UCF, Tulane, Penn State, and Charlotte. They are not as good as they numbers appear. Notre Dame has had two weeks to get ready for this which is a big advantage. The Irish have also played the MUCH tougher schedule (6th ranked SOS) having already faced Texas, Clemson, USC, Georgia Tech & Virginia. Even though they have played a much tougher slate, they have much better numbers than Temple outgaining their opponents by 130 YPG. Their lone loss came at the hands of #3 Clemson on the road by a score of 24-22. The Irish actually dominated the stats at Clemson outgaining the Tigers 437-296. Turnovers for ND were the difference in that game. These two have played on common opponent on back to back weeks. Temple beat UMass 25-23 and outgained the Minutemen by 20 yards. A week later, Notre Dame beat UMass 62-27 outgaining them by 230 yards. The Irish are battling for a spot in college football’s “Final 4” and if they win out, they’ll have a great chance to get there. They will be more than ready here off a bye, in front of a nationally televised audience, vs an undefeated opponent. On top of that, don’t expect a huge home field advantage for Temple as much of the crowd will be ND fans. Temple gets exposed here. |
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10-31-15 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati -27 | Top | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -27 over UCF, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET Here we have a team that can’t score against a team that puts up big numbers. That gives you blowout potential with Cincinnati. The Bearcats are MUCH better than their 4-3 record. Their losses have come at the hands of Temple (7-0), Memphis (7-0), and BYU (6-2). The only team that really outplayed the Bearcats was BYU. Despite their losses to Temple & Memphis, they outgained those two teams by 261 yards and 182 yards respectively. Cincy ranks 8th nationally averaging a whopping 542 YPG. They are facing a UCF team that ranks 127th (out of 128) in that category putting up only 256 YPG. UCF is 0-8 on the year and they have topped 16 points only ONCE all season long. Now they have the added distraction of their coach George O’Leary quitting (retired) after last week’s 59-10 loss to Houston. The Bearcats rolled up 612 total yards last week on a decent UConn defense. Now they are facing a UCF defense that is really wearing down because of the offensive ineptness. In their last 4 games UCF’s defense has allowed 49, 40, 30, and 59 points. Cincy names the score here as Central Florida simply can’t stop them and can’t keep up offensively. |
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10-31-15 | Ole Miss -7 v. Auburn | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -7 over Auburn, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET One loss Ole'Miss controls their own destiny in the SEC West as they own the tie breaker over Alabama because they beat them head to head but they basically need to win out. Auburn on the other hand is struggling through a disappointing season and are in a bad spot here coming off a brutal 4 OT loss to Arkansas last week. Ole'Miss was favored by 6.5 points at 6-1 Florida and favored by 10-points over 7-0 Memphis and even though they lost both those games that tells us what kind of value we are getting here laying a TD at 4-3 Auburn. The Rebels are averaging 515 total yards of offense per game while giving up just 338 for a +176 yards differential per game. They have a positive point differential of 21.2PPG. Auburn on the other hand is only averaging 363 yards per game while giving up 431 for a negative differential of -67YPG. They also have a negative point differential of -1.3PPG. Mississippi's statistics come from playing the 8th best schedule to date in college football while the Tigers come against the 27th toughest. Auburn's decline is evidenced by their 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with winning records. Ole'Miss has a 6-2 record. Easy call...Rebels big! |
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10-30-15 | Louisiana Tech v. Rice +11.5 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Rice +11.5 over La Tech, Friday at 8:00 PM ET We expect a letdown here from La Tech. They’ve had a number of “big” games this year and they are off games @ Mississippi State and home vs MTSU which as a HUGE game for them in the conference race. It is also La Tech’s 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Rice will be ready. They’ve been waiting for this game. These two met last year with the CUSA West title on the line. La Tech was a 7.5 home favorite and they ripped Rice 76-31. It was a 28-24 game in the 3rd quarter when things snowballed, Rice committed 4 turnovers, LT scored 2 defensive TD’s and the game got out of hand. The Owls are a significant home dog that runs the ball very well (195 YPG). We like those situations. Not only that, the weather isn’t expected to be great with windy & rainy conditions. That favors a solid running Rice team over a La Tech teams that throws for over 300 YPG. Just a few weeks ago Rice played host to Western Kentucky and the Owls were +7. We have WKU rated 16 spots higher than La Tech right now yet we’re getting double digits with Rice here in a bad spot for LT. The home team has the advantage on a short week and we like Rice here. A home team that can score points (Rice averages 30 PPG) is a nice take as a double digit dog. |
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10-29-15 | Dolphins v. Patriots -8 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 48 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Miami, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's NFL THURSDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH Miami is hot we get it. We’ve been on them the last two weeks and cashed in nicely with both. However, let’s not forget those two games were against Tennessee & Houston who have a combined 3-10 record. Sure Miami’s defense has looked much better the last two weeks but they’ve faced two of the least efficient offenses in the NFL (Houston 25th & Tennessee 27th). Two teams with questions at QB with the Titans starting a rookie (Mariota) and the Texans starting the equivalent of a back up (Hoyer). Now they face the most efficient offense in the NFL with Tom Brady at the helm. Brady and the Pats will be ready for this division battle and they get to show their worth as the “only game in town” on National TV. Brady loves the spotlight and he will perform well. The Pats are a remarkable 27-7-1 ATS at home when favored by less than 10 points. Against Miami, 9 of New England’s last 10 wins here in Foxboro have come by double digits. The Patriots are also 18-7 ATS their last 25 in this series. They are simply a dominating home team winning 54 of their last 61 games here. 12 of their last 14 wins here have come by at least a TD. We have one of the top NFL coaches of all time Bill Belichick takes on interim Dan Campbell and while the “rah-rah” approach worked for the Fins against poor competition, it won’t here. Lay the number with New England on Thursday. |
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10-29-15 | Texas State v. Georgia Southern -20.5 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -20.5 over Texas State, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU The situation definitely favors Georgia Southern in this game. They are at home with extra time to prepare. The Eagles played last Thursday @ App State, the best team in the Sun Belt, and lost. It was Southern’s first Sun Belt loss since joining the conference at the beginning of last year so they will be extra motivated here. Texas State, unlike Ga Southern, has to travel on a short week. TSU beat South Alabama at home on Saturday but they were outgained in the game. The Bobcats arrived in Statesboro around 10 PM last night after a short week of practice. You couldn’t ask for a bigger mismatch as far as the rushing attack goes. GSU is #1 in the nation in rushing averaging 370 YPG on the ground and 6.8 YPC. Texas State can’t stop anybody on the ground. If you take out their game against FCS Prairie View A&M, the Bobcats are allowing 297 YPG rushing and 6.1 YPC. That ranks them 127th nationally out of 128. So here we have the top rushing team in the country against the 2nd worst rush defense on a short week. Despite those terrible numbers defensively for TSU, they have faced only ONE team ranked inside the top 30 in rushing. Georgia Southern is the much better team here and they can showcase their university at home on national TV. They almost never get that opportunity and we look for them to roll here. |
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10-25-15 | Houston Texans v. Miami Dolphins -4 | Top | 26-44 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami -4 over Houston, Sunday a 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE YEAR We jumped on the Fins last week banking on them being “revitalized” with the coaching change and we were correct. They dominated the Titans 38-10 outgaining Tennessee by 135 yards and by a full 2 YPP. QB Tannehill looked better than he has all season completing 22 of 29 for 266 yards. The defense looked light years better with 6 sacks vs Tennessee after having just 1 in their first 4 games. The Fins were a 8-8 team last year and played very well in the pre-season when their starters were in the game. Everything we’ve heard is the players love interim coach Campbell so we expect the good play and emotion to continue this week. After losing 4 of their first 5 games, Houston picked up a win last week @ Jacksonville. The final was a bit deceiving though as the Texans were actually outgained by the Jags but benefitted from a pick 6 and 3 Jax turnovers (0 for Houston). Houston is just 6-16 SU their last 22 road games and this is their 3rd time away from home the last 4 weeks. At this small number and re-energized team, we like Miami. |
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10-24-15 | Toledo -14 v. UMass | Top | 51-35 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Toledo -14 over UMass, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - MAC Game of the Month This game has all the makings of a blowout. UMass is coming off a loss last week to Kent 10-15 as a 7-point favorite and now face a Toledo team that beat Kent the week before 38-7 as a -15.5 point chalk. Toledo outgained Kent by 261 total yards and 2.5 yards per play. UMass was outgained by 70 yards in their loss to Kent and were negative in yards per play at -1.2 for the game. Massachusetts offensive strength is throwing the football but they'll struggle here against a Toledo defense that is 29th versus the pass allowing just 5.31 yards per pass. On the flip side the Minutemen will have trouble stopping a balanced Rockets attack that can throw and run. Toledo is 39th in passing yards per play at 7.04 (33rd) and 37th in rushing yards per play at 5.41. The Rockets rushing offense has a decisive advantage over a UMass rush defense that allows 5.45 yards per carry and is 102nd in the nation. Opponents are averaging 490 yards per game (113th) against UMass this season and 38PPG. The Rockets have outscored their last four opponents by 118 total points and outgained them by 864 total yards. Massachusetts doesn't really have a home field advantage playing at the Gillette Stadium so we don't have a problem laying double digit points with the road team. |
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10-24-15 | Tulane v. Navy -24 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Navy -24 over Tulane, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's American Athletic Conference Game of the Year First of all Tulane can’t score so laying a big number against them isn’t as risky as it would against some other teams. The Green Wave offense is bad as they average only 257 YPG ranking them 127th nationally out of 128. They have played 6 games this year and been held to 10 or fewer points in 4 of them. Defensively, if you take out their game vs Maine (FCS opponent) Tulane has allowed 37, 65, 31, 49, and 42 points. They can’t run the ball at all (98 YPG on 2.9 YPC) which means they better be able to throw it to score. After missing last week, starting QB Lee (concussion) will most likely return here, but it won’t matter, the Wave are in trouble. Last week they were trounced at home 42-7 by Houston while Navy took the week off. It’s a tough transition from preparing for Houston’s offense (shotgun – Ohio State offense) to Navy’s option in one short week. The Tulane defense did face a similar option offense once this year @ Georgia Tech. That didn’t go so well at Tech won that game 65-10 rolling up 440 yards rushing. Navy is third nationally in rushing at 335 YPG and they will do serious damage here just as Ga Tech did. Midshipmen QB Reynolds will start here after injuring his leg @ Notre Dame two weeks ago. The two weeks off really helped and Reynolds practiced full go this week. Navy has handled some solid teams here at home including beating a solid ECU team by 24 and a good Air Force team by 22 in a rivalry game. Tulane has played 2 road games this year (@ Georgia Tech & @ Temple) and lost those by a combined score of 114-20! Navy wears Tulane down and literally runs away with this one. |
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10-24-15 | Auburn v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 46-54 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Arkansas -6.5 over Auburn, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - SEC Game of the Month
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10-22-15 | California +4 v. UCLA | Top | 24-40 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* California +4 over UCLA, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN We’re taking the better team getting points in this one. Cal is often overlooked but his is a very good team. The Bears are 5-1 on the season and their only loss game at the hands of undefeated at top 5 team Utah. The Bears lost that one 30-24 despite committing SIX turnovers. They outgained the Utes in the game and probably should be sitting at 6-0 right now. UCLA is reeling right now. They’ve lost 2 straight and neither were close. They were whipped by 21 points last week vs Stanford and lost by 15 points at home a week earlier vs Arizona State. The Bruins really could have lost 3 of their last at their home tilt with BYU on Sept 19th went to the wire with UCLA winning 24-23. Their defense has been atrocious in Pac 12 play allowing 124 points and over 1300 yards in three games. They allowed 50+ points in 2 of their 3 conference games. That will be a problem tonight facing a top notch offense and QB. Jared Goff is ranked as the #1 QB on NFL draft boards and he has led Cal to average 34 PPG on 490 YPG. He should have a field day against his struggling UCLA defense. We have a big edge at QB with Goff facing UCLA true frosh Rosen, who has come back down to earth a bit after a red hot start vs weaker competition. The Cal upperclassmen will have a little extra motivation tonight after they lost at home to UCLA 36-34 a year ago, losing the lead with just over 3:00 remaining in the game. Take the points here as we feel Cal wins this game outright. |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 7-27 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
PLAY ON: NY GIANTS - We're not jumping on the Eagles bandwagon because of their win last week against the 2-4 Saints, who oh-by-the-way have the worst defense in the NFL. This week the Eagles face a far superior defensive team so we're predicting we'll see an Eagles offense that more resembles the unit we saw the first few weeks of the season over the one we saw against New Orleans. Prior to their game against the Saints the Eagles offense was averaging just 294 yards per game which was 30th in the NFL. We can also make a point that the 3-2 Giants could be 5-0 right now. In fact, there's a legitimate argument to be made that the Giants have quietly been one of the best teams in football this season. They're 7th in points per game, 7th in offensive efficiency, 8th in yards per play, 2nd in run defense allowing just 80.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards allowed per rush and 8th turnover differential. The Eagles 26th ranked pass defense will be exploited here by the Giants passing offense that is 8th in NFL in yards per game. Running back DeMarco Murray has been a bust for the Eagles averaging just 2.7 yards per carry and we don't see Philly running the ball here against a Giants D that is allowing a league-best 3.5 yards per carry. Teams that allow 90 or less rushing yards per game and an underdog have been very good ATS this season and the road team has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings in this series. We feel the better team is getting points here and will play on New York. |
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10-18-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. San Francisco 49ers +2 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +2 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL HOME DOG OF THE MONTH Both teams come into this game with 1-4 records but we give SF the edge at home. The Niners had a few “ugly” losses @ Pitt (with Roelisberger healthy) and @ Arizona, two of the better teams in the league. At home they’ve played well beating Minnesota handily and giving Green Bay a decent game holding the vaunted Packer offense to just 17 points and 362 total yards. Last week they had a good NYG team beat on the road until Eli Manning threw a TD 20 seconds remaining in the game. At home they’ve only allowed 20 points in 2 games this season. We like Baltimore coming into the season but they are obviously vastly over rated. They have yet to cover the spread and they have already lost to Oakland and Cleveland. Last week’s demoralizing home loss could take the wind out of their sails here. That was a must win game against a bad team and they couldn’t get it done at home. Now the Ravens travel to the west coast for the 3rd time already this season! Take the points and we’ll call for the Niners to win outright. |
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10-17-15 | Purdue +24 v. Wisconsin | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue +24 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 Noon ET - ASA's BIG TEN POWERHOUSE PLAY Another bad line in the Big Ten. Purdue was just @ Michigan State two weeks ago and +22 and now they are getting +24 @ Wisconsin, a team that isn’t as good as MSU. They nearly won that game at MSU losing by just a FG and the Boilers had the ball late with a chance to win. The Boilers are a team that is much better than their record in our opinion. They’ve had a number of close calls (MSU, Bowling Green, Marshall) against solid teams. Last week’s 41-13 loss vs Minnesota was a bit deceiving. It was a 10-6 game in the 2nd half. The Gophs had a pick 6 and while 400 total yards of offense was good for Minnesota, that normally doesn’t equate to 41 points. The Badgers offense is very pedestrian this year. They are laying 24 points in this game and have only topped 30 points once all season. They scored 28 vs Hawaii and 28 vs Troy. In last week’s win over Nebraska it took UW a last second FG to get to 23 points. That was against a very poor Husker defense. Expect a letdown here as that was a huge 23-21 must win game for Wisconsin last Saturday. The Badger running game has been average this year as their starting RB Clement is out, their 2nd stringer Taiwan Deal is most likely out (injured last week) as well. They will be using a walk on (Ogunbuwale) and a true frosh (Ingold) who was a linebacker to start the season. Badgers will also probably be without starting center Voltz who was injured last week. UW will not run away with this game. They just want to get out with a win and we don’t see a 24 points win. Badgers win but no cover here. |
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10-17-15 | Iowa v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +2.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 12 PM ET - ASA's BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR Absolutely a wrong line here. NW should be favored in this game. Iowa is 6-0 but none of their wins have been overly impressive. Their win @ Iowa State was expected as the Cyclones are a lower tier Big 12 team. Their home win over Pitt (middle of the pack ACC team) came on a 57 yard FG at the buzzer. Their 10-6 win @ Wisconsin was very deceiving as the Badgers were +100 in total yardage and turned the ball over 4 times including fumbling at the 1-yard line going in for the winning score. Northwestern has already beaten two teams that are better than Iowa (Stanford & Duke). Sure they had a terrible game last week at Michigan but the Wolves returned the opening kickoff for a TD and had a pick 6. Not to mention the Michigan defense has been ridiculously good pitching 3 straight shut outs. If anything, that embarrassing loss brings out the best in NW this week. They also lost @ Iowa last year 48-7 in what head coach Fitzgerald admitted it was their low point of the season. He also admitted this week that last year’s loss + the fact that Iowa sits in 1st place in the Big Ten West + last week’s performance all bring an extra level of motivating for this week. Iowa is banged up coming out of their home win vs Illinois last week. Both starting offensive tackles are injured and not on the depth chart for this weeks game. On top of that, the Hawks #1 defensive lineman Drew Ott was injured last week and is out for the year. We’re getting one of the top defenses in the country at home as a dog here. The NW defensive line is an absolute strength and they are facing a depleted Iowa OL. No way the Cats should be getting points in this game. Just for comparison, two weeks ago Iowa at +7 @ Wisconsin a team we rate very close to Northwestern. In our opinion, this line will move back to even or even flop favorites by the weekend. Play it now. |
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10-16-15 | Houston -19.5 v. Tulane | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -19.5 over Tulane, Friday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU We see no way that Tulane can keep up in this game. The Green Wave struggle offensive ranking 125th nationally (out of 128) putting up only 256 YPG. Their rushing attack is almost non-existent averaging only 68 YPG. That means the only way they can score is through the air. That puts a lot of pressure on the QB. Problem is, their starting QB Lee is out in this game. That means back up Devin Powell will have a lot thrown on his shoulders tonight and he has only attempted 8 passes this year. Tulane has already been blown out 3 times this year losing by 30 to Duke, 55 to Ga Tech, and 39 to Temple. Now they face an undefeated Houston team who’s offense is among the best in the nation. Under new head coach Tom Herman (former OC at Ohio St) the Cougs are averaging 46 PPG on 574 YPG. Houston has a legit shot at running the table and they’ll want to impress in their few nationally televised games and this is one of them. Houston scores at will and Tulane, who has been held to 10 points or less 3 times this year, simply doesn’t have the personnel to stay in this game. Lay it. |
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10-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4.5 over San Diego, Monday at 8:25 PM ET We like the situation here with Pittsburgh and a strong rushing attack, off a loss, playing a weak rush defense and off a win. The Steelers and QB Michael Vick benefit from a couple extra days of prep time for this one after losing last Thursday night to the Ravens when the couldn't hold on to a 13-point lead in the 4th. Remember, Vick joined this Steelers late so the extra reps were critical this week with the offense. But for Pittsburgh to win they'll run the football (10th at 4.3 yards per carry) with Bell and Williams against a Charger rush defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. San Diego gives up 126 rush yards per game which is 28th in the NFL and 4.9 yards per carry which is 30th. We're not impressed with San Diego's 2-2 record as they beat two bad teams in the Lions and Browns, both at home by 5 and 3-points respectively. The Chargers are banged up along the offensive line and have really struggled running the football this season. They've had success throwing it but you can bet the Steelers will have a blitz heavy package in place tonight to take advantage of the Chargers weak O-line. Pittsburgh has covered 6 of their last seven when coming off a loss. They are also 4-0 their last four road games. The Chargers are just 1-6 ATS their last seven at home. 1-6 ATS when coming off a win. Pittsburgh is the play here. |
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10-11-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +3 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH We want to play on a strong rush defense here against one that doesn't stop the run well. The Jags allow just 83 rushing yards per game this season which is 4th best in the NFL. The Bucs on the other hand give up 136.8RYPG on the season which is 30th in the NFL. The angle that applies here is this: Currently the top 7 rushing defensive yards per game leaders, stand 12-5 vs. the number when getting points this season. The Jags will get the ground game going which takes pressure of Bortles and the rest of their offense. The Bucs are HORRIBLE at home having lost 11 straight on their home field and posting just 15 spread wins their last 53 at home. Jacksonville better is nearly every statistical category and the 'buy' in this situation. Outright win here by Jacksonville. |
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10-11-15 | New Orleans Saints +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -135 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +6 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC GAME OF THE WEEK Is this a play on the Saints or a play against the Eagles? Take your pick! Should the Eagles be favored over anyone in the NFL right now with how they've played? Philly outgained the Falcons by just 4-yards in the season opener but have since been outgained by 133, 92 and 97 yards in their last three games. They are 29th in the NFL in total yardage differential getting outgained by an average of 80YPG. On the flip side the 1-3 Saints are 17th in the NFL in yardage differential so about average and have outgained foes 6YPG. The Saints looked much better offensively last week in their 26-20 win in Dallas with Bree's going 33 of 41 for 359 yards and 2 TD's without a pick. Sam Bradford and the Eagles offense under Kelly has been awful. Bradford is 19th in the NFL in passing yards per game and 25th in QBR. Philly was supposed to be dominate on that side of the football but they currently rank 29th in the league in total yards per game (Saints 7th). Defensively the Eagles hold a very slight edge in terms of yards allowed per game allowing 373.5YPG but the Saints are just below them at 381.5YPG allowed. Saints have covered 5 of their last 7 away from home while the Eagles have just 11 spread wins their last 37 at home. How fast will the Philly faithful turn on the Eagles if they fall behind here. Take the points with the better team. |
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10-10-15 | Miami (Fla) +9 v. Florida State | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 54 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami FL +9 over Florida State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET on ABC - ASA's ACC GAME OF THE YEAR FSU has dominated this series as of late winning 5 straight. That actually might take some of the “luster” off this game for the Noles while Miami definitely has this tabbed as their most important game of the season. Also, despite their recent success here, we think the Noles are a step down from previous editions. Since rolling over matched opponents Texas State & South Florida to open the season FSU has not looked like world beaters the last two weeks against lower tier ACC teams. Two weeks ago they got by BC 14-0 and only outgained the Eagles by 22 yards and FSU was +2 turnovers in that game which helped them pick up a win. Last week they struggled mightily with Wake Forest despite their 24-16 win. Wake had more first downs (13) and more yardage in that game and that was coming off a bye. The Noles again were afforded a +2 turnover margin vs Wake which again helped them get a win. As you can see, FSU has played a number of “weak” offenses with only one of their opponents ranking higher than 107th nationally in scoring offense (Texas State ranks 64th). Now they face a Miami offense that puts up 488 YPG ranking them 15th in the nation. Miami is also off their first loss of the season last Thursday @ Cincinnati. Off that loss + extra time to prepare we think the Canes bring their A game here. Miami almost got off the schneid last year as they led FSU 23-7 before the Noles came back and picked them off for a 30-26 win. Miami outgained FSU in that game and they have been waiting for this one ever since. On offense Florida State will most likely be without their top offensive weapon, RB Cook who has nearly 600 yards rushing this year. This has been a closely contested series with the underdog covering 8 of the last 10 and 11 of last 14 have been decided by less than 10 points. We think this one goes to the wire and Miami covers. |
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