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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
#468 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tampa Bay -11.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Bears. They like to establish the run as their passing attack is remedial at best. Chicago is the only team in the NFL with less than 50% of their yardage coming from the passing game. The problem here is, it’s really tough to run on the Bucs. They are allowing just 54 YPG on 3.4 YPC. It’s gotten to a point where teams don’t even try to run on Tampa as just 27% of opposing plays have been on the ground – least in the NFL. If Chicago can’t run, they are in huge trouble. Their offense has zero chance of keeping up in this game. The Bears rank last in the NFL averaging 4.3 YPP. They are averaging just 16.3 PPG which is 30th in the NFL and they’ve scored only 10 offensive TD’s in 6 games this season. Rookie QB Fields has played been the starter for 4.5 games now (came in at halftime of Cincinnati game) and he’s only completing 53% of his passes for an average of 138 passing yards per game. He’s thrown only 2 TD passes this year and the Bears as a whole have thrown only 3 TD passes which is the fewest in the NFL. They have topped 300 total yards just once in their last 5 games and that was vs a bad Detroit defense. Those offensive numbers won’t get it done here. Tampa will score points. They are averaging 32.5 PPG and at home they are putting up a remarkable 41 PPG this season. They’ve been a double digit favorite their last 2 home games and blasted Atlanta 48-25 and Miami 45-17. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this having played in Philadelphia on Thursday night. This is a revenger as they lost to Chicago last year in the infamous Brady lost track of what down it was game. He takes that stuff to heart and you can bet he wants to blast Chicago here. Double digit favorites in the NFL have been a successful 7-2 ATS this season and as long as this one stays under 14 points we’ll lay it as Chicago’s offense won’t be able to score enough to get this cover. |
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10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 vs UTSA, 7 PM ET - Meep, meep…here come the 7-0 #24 ranked UTSA Roadrunners! This is uncharted territory for UTSA who has never been ranked in the top 25 ever before and the impact in the line is evident. The Roadrunners have played the 96th easiest schedule to date with their best win coming against an average 4-3 Memphis team. Their other five FBS wins have come against teams with a combined 8-23 SU record. LA Tech comes into this huge conference showdown off an embarrassing 3-19 performance versus UTEP and will be primed for a game against a ranked opponent. In their game versus UTEP the Bulldogs had 3 crucial turnovers, 2 failed 4th down conversions and only scored once in five possessions in the red zone. Prior to that game, LA Tech had scored in 15 of 16 RZ trips. The Bulldogs have faced the much tougher schedule to date with 2-point loss to 6-0 SMU, 1-pt loss to SEC Mississippi State and a 7-point loss to 18th ranked NC State. The Bulldogs could very well have won all three of those games. UTSA is 10-2 ATS their last twelve road games BUT they were underdogs in all but one of those and they failed to cover as a road favorite. Since 2019 LA Tech has been a home dog just 4 times and they’ve covered three with an average loss margin of just -0.5PPG. |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State +5.5 over Coastal Carolina, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - CC is undefeated this season but their schedule has been one of the easiest in the country. App State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this year. Coastal’s strength of schedule ranks 159th in the nation when including FCS teams schedules which says a lot since there are only 130 FBS teams. To date they have faced Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, UL Monroe, and Arkansas State. Not one of those teams ranks inside the Sagarin top 100 and their combined record is 11-26. App State is 4-2 on the season but they’ve played 4 teams that are better than any opponent CC has faced (Miami FL, ECU, UL Lafayette, and Marshall). It’s really tough to even strongly consider their offensive stats when the FBS teams they’ve faced currently rank 130th, 129th, 118th, 116th, and 113th in total defense (out of 130). On the other side of the ball the Chanticleer defense has faced only one offense ranked higher than 71st. App State has 2 losses on the season, a 2-point setback at Miami FL where the Canes needed a late FG to get the win and their most recent game @ ULL. That was by far their worst performance of the year getting blown out by a very solid ULL team but committing 4 turnovers leading to 21 points for ULL. App State was also 0 of 11 on third downs. Just a terrible performance by a solid team and we expect them to bounce back and play very well at home. These 2 met last year in Coastal where App was a 3-point dog and lost by 11. They outgained CC by 45 yards in that game. Now they are getting more points at home this year vs a team that hasn’t played anybody. CC has played 2 road games this year and one of those vs Buffalo went to the wire and turned out as a 3-point win for Coastal. This game will be much tougher. CC hasn’t played in almost 2 weeks which isn’t ideal at this time of year. App State has been great at home where they have a 29-3 record their last 32 and all 3 of those losses were by a FG or less. This sets up for an upset on Wednesday night and we like App State + the points. |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +6.5 over Buffalo, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bills are overvalued right now with their string of blowouts + a win over KC last weekend. Let’s remember that, while impressive, their last 4 wins have come vs Miami (with Brissett making first start this year at QB), Washington (with QB Heinicke making 2nd start), Houston (with rookie Mills at QB) and KC (who turned the ball over 4 times in the game to 0 for Buffalo & KC ain’t the KC of last year as they are 3-3 on the season). This is also a terrible spot for the Bills. They focused much of their off-season on beating KC in that game last week after losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year. That was, in essence, their regular season Super Bowl. Now they go on the road in a game the opener was set at -3 and it’s been bet up to nearly a TD. The Tennessee offense is getting healthy again as WR’s Jones is expected back tonight. RB Henry has rushed for nearly 4,800 yards in his last 40 games and they are very dangerous offensively if they can mix up the run and pass. We think they’ll do that tonight vs Bills team that has solid numbers vs the run but they’ve faced 4 rushing attacks ranked 19th or lower this season. This Tennessee coaching staff knows something about beating the Bills. Last year Buffalo strolled into town with an impressive 9-2 record favored by 3 vs this Titans. They left with a 42-16 loss. It was one week after the Bills played KC very similar to this situation. The dog has covered 6 straight in this series and let’s not act as of this Tennessee team is some slouch. They are 3-2 this year so this is a huge game for them and they won the AFC South a season ago. We’re not talking about Jacksonville or the NY Jets here. They are a playoff caliber team getting nearly a TD at home. This one stays close throughout and we’ll take the points. |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - We love the way this one has set up. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, Cleveland, off a loss and back at home. They are 3-2 on the season with down to the wire losses @ KC and @ LA Chargers and this is a huge game for them. The Browns lost 37-32 @ LA last week but outgained the Chargers in overall yardage and on a YPP basis. They were also +117 yards on the ground racking up 230 yards rushing on 6.6 YPC. Their defense underperformed last week but still rank 7th in YPP allowed even with that showing. The D should also be well rested having not been on the field for more than 25 minutes (out of 60 minutes) in any of their last 4 games. Arizona comes in 5-0 and ready to be plucked. Last week they played host to division rival San Francisco and won 17-0 despite being outgained on both a total yard and YPP basis. That was a Niner team with a rookie QB making his first start and SF has many opportunities to win that game. The Cards are off back to back division games so this is a nice letdown spot for them. It’s also a terrible match up for their defense. Cleveland is the best running team in the NFL averaging 187 YPG on 5.4 YPC. Arizona’s defense ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed. Not only that, the Cards give up big plays in the running game allowing an average of 5 carries per game of 10+ yards (last in the NFL) and they are 31st in the NFL on yardage allowed on carries of 10 yards or more. Bad news for them is Cleveland’s running game leads the NFL in yards gained on carries of 10 or more yards. So Cleveland won’t need their passing attack to pick up chunk yardage on Sunday. With the successful running game will come a great play action pass attack which is perfect for Baker Mayfield. If he’s asked to carry a team in the passing game, he can struggle, but if he is just complementary to their running game, he can be very good and so can Cleveland’s offense. Arizona also relies on running the ball but they are facing a MUCH tougher Cleveland defense allowing just 3.4 YPG (3rd in the NFL). It’s supposed to be windy in Cleveland so the Browns dominance in the running game will be even more pronounced. On top of that, Arizona has been hit by Covid this week and one of their top defensive players, DE Chandler Jones, will be out. Who knows if there are more to come? Arizona QB Murray has been limited in practice this week due to a shoulder injury and his top target WR Hopkins may not play on Sunday due to an illness which we might assume is Covid since it has hit the team. Another one of Murray’s top targets, TE Williams is now out for the year after getting injured last Sunday. Despite their records, our power ratings have Cleveland the better team. They are +1.2 YPP differential while the undefeated Cards are +0.7 YPP. Now we’re getting what we feel is the better team, in a much more desperate situation at home coming off a loss. Cleveland is the play here. |
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10-16-21 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska -4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on the Huskers last week and wound up with a push as they lost by 3 to Michigan. Nebraska fumbled in their own territory late in that game setting up the Wolverines for the game winning kick. Nebraska has been tested as much as any team in the country over the past month. They have faced three top 10 teams and stood toe to toe with all of them. They lost at Oklahoma by a TD yet outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis. A week later they traveled to undefeated Michigan State and lost in OT despite outgaining the Spartans by 186 yards! Then last week their close loss to Michigan. Those 3 teams are a combined 18-0 and Nebraska was close to winning each of those games. The only team they’ve faced in the last month that wasn’t in the top 10 was Northwestern and they beat the Wildcats 56-7. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been struggling with lower tier opponents. Their last 4 games they almost lost at home to Miami OH, won @ Colorado, lost at home to Bowling Green, and then beat Purdue but were outgained by 150 yards. The first 3 teams listed rank 104, 105, and 144 in College Football Sagarin ratings. Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota in Minneapolis, just lost at home by 15 points to an Akron team that had a record of 1-26 their last 27 games! The Gophers rely heavily on their ground game and they are now down to their 3rd string RB after losing starter Ibrahim in the season opener and then back up Potts was lost for the season in their most recent game vs Purdue. Their offense has put up an average of just 15 PPG and 270 YPG over their last 2 games. Nebraska’s offense is humming against top notch competition averaging over 500 YPG in their last 6 games. We see no way Minnesota will be able to keep up here. They take a huge step up in competition and if they are struggling to beat middle of the pack MAC teams at home, they’re in trouble here. The Huskers are +1.8 YPP differential on the season while Minnesota is just +0.2 YPP despite the difference in their schedule strength. Nebraska is MUCH better than their record and we see a double digit win on Saturday. Lay the small number with the Huskers. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#475 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +5.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has started the season a perfect 4-0 while San Fran is off back to back home losses vs Green Bay & Seattle. Thus, this line is higher than it should be according to our power ratings. If this was the season opener, we’re looking at right around pick-em for a line and now we get the Niners at +5. Arizona was very fortunate in their only home tilt this year as the Vikings missed a FG at the buzzer that would have given them the win (Zona won 34-33). They struggled to a 31-19 win @ Jacksonville but the Cards were trailing 19-10 late in the 3rd quarter in that game when a pick 6 turned the game around (Jax also had 4 TO’s). After picking up a nice win last week @ LA Rams (Rams were in letdown spot of win over Bucs) the Cardinals stock is a bit high right now. San Fran lost 28-21 at home to Seattle last week but they dominated the stat sheet with a +2.0 YPP differential, +1.1 YPC differential, and 9 more first downs. Starting QB Garoppolo was injured and rookie QB Lance came in an did very well in the 2nd half. While Lance was in the game the 49ers outgained Russell Wilson and the Seahawks 230 to 170 so he played well. It looks like he will most likely start this weekend which will be tough on Arizona with San Francisco bringing an entirely different offensive gameplan to the table that HC Shanahan has been waiting to unleash. The Cardinal defense will be running blind in this one as far as being able to game plan for the SF offense. The last 14 times San Francisco was coming off back to back losses as favorites, they were 11-3 ATS in their next game. This has been an underdog series with the puppy going 5-0-1 ATS the last 6 meetings including 4 outright wins. Last year the Niners were 6 point underdogs @ Arizona with CJ Beathard at QB and won the game! This is a buy low (SF) / sell high (Arizona) spot for us and we like the 49ers to get the cover. |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
#346 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Jose State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Big time red flags over the last month with this SJSU team. Their travel schedule has been brutal and it’s started to show. This will be their 4th road game in their last 5 games. Since September 4th they have played @ USC, @ Hawaii (long travel), @ Western Michigan (long travel), at home last week vs a terrible NM State team and now @ CSU who is coming off a bye week. In their most recent 3 games the Spartans did beat Hawaii 17-13 but they only gained 291 yards on 3.7 YPP vs a Rainbow defense that allows 5.4 YPP on the season (ranked 67th). SJSU then went to Western Michigan and got rolled 23-3 while getting outgained by 228 yards. Last week they played host to New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in college football, and won 37-31 and only outgained the Aggies by 19 yards. That’s an “almost” home loss to a NM State that that is 1-6 this season (only win vs an FCS team) and has won only 5 of their last 26 games. Starting QB Starkel didn’t play in that game and might not here. CSU has shown some solid growth over the last month beating a solid Toledo team on the road 22-6 and they followed that up with a tight 24-14 loss @ #3 Iowa, a game they led at halftime. The Rams outgained Toledo and were out yarded by just 28 total yards vs the Hawkeyes. This team is rested and headed in the right direction. Their opponent SJSU is not. Lay the small number in this one. |
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10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
#307 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +29.5 over Cincinnati, Friday at 7 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off games vs Indiana & Notre Dame and they have UCF on deck. All off-season the talk was if this team can get by IU and the Irish they have a great shot at an undefeated season. Those 2 games were this teams “Super Bowls” so to speak and playing a home game as nearly a 30 point favorite after beating the Irish will be tough. The only other potential roadblock on their way to an undefeated season is probably UCF next week so focusing on Temple won’t be easy. The Owls are better than people might think. Their defense is very solid allowing just 313 YPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they held a potent Memphis offense to just 5.8 YPP and the Tigers had just 385 total yards of offense entering their final offensive possession with 2:30 remaining in the game. Memphis scored with 30 seconds left to cut the Temple lead to 3 points but the Owls held on to win. The Temple offense struggled in mid September but much of that was because their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) was out with an injury. He’s been back for their last 2 games and led the Owls to 72 points while passing for over 600 yards and 2 TD’s. Now we don’t expect him to put up those numbers vs Cincy but he’ll do enough to keep them within this huge number. This isn’t the same Temple team that was routed by Rutgers in the season opener. They are much better and that game was extremely misleading as well with the Owls turning the ball over 6 times in that game. Because of that, we are still getting line value with Temple who is now at full strength. These two AAC rivals last met in 2019 and Cincinnati was a 7.5 point home favorite and beat Temple 15-13. Now they are laying almost 30 points! Temple has covered 5 straight in this series and we think their defense is solid enough to not let the Bearcat offense go wild in this game. Their offense is also underrated and may not need to score many points to keep this within the number. Take the points with Temple. |
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10-07-21 | Rams -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -2 over Seattle, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Rams. They are the better team and coming off a loss last Sunday at home vs Arizona. It wasn’t overly surprising as, despite it being a division game, it was a big time letdown spot for the Rams after beating up on Tampa Bay a week earlier. Despite their 37-20 loss to the Cards, the yardage was about dead even (6.3 YPP to 6.2 YPP) but LA had 2 key turnovers that directly led to 14 points for Arizona. The Rams also missed a FG and were shut out on downs at the Arizona 1-yard line. Seattle is coming off a game they had to win @ San Francisco after losing back to back games vs the Titans & Vikings. Those 2 losses don’t look great for Seattle now as Tennessee just lost to the Jets and Minnesota was ousted at home by Cleveland. The Seahawks did what they needed to do last week picking up a 28-21 win vs the Niners. It wasn’t all that impressive however as they were outgained by a wide margin (6.3 YPP to 4.3 YPP) and SF starting QB Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half due to an injured leg leaving it up to inexperienced rookie Trey Lance. With Lance running the show in the 2nd half the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 230 to 172 but a key fumble from the rookie led to a 14 yard TD drive for the Seahawks which turned out to be the difference in the game. Seattle is also pretty banged up right now with 3 starters on both offense and defense possibly out on Thursday including top WR Metcalfe who has a foot injury. These 2 met 3 times last year (playoffs included) and the Rams won 2 of the 3 games including a 30-20 win @ Seattle in the playoffs and they outgained the Hawks 1,056 to 903. And that was with Jared Goff at QB not Matthew Stafford who is a big upgrade. Seattle used to be a covering machine at home but that hasn’t been the case as of late. They are just 8-10 ATS their last 18 home tilts dating back to the 2018 season. We like the better team, with the better defense, off a loss here. Take the Rams. |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a must win for Seattle who sits at 1-2 after blowing double digit leads in each of the last 2 weeks vs Tennessee & Minnesota. The Seattle offense has been rolling as they are averaging 7.4 YPP which is tops in the NFL this season. San Fran’s offense is heading in the opposite direction. After lighting up a bad Detroit defense for 8 YPP in their opener the Niners have averaged just 4.5 and 4.6 YPP their last 2 games vs Philly & Green Bay. The 49ers have been outgained by 1.5 YPP in each of their last 2 games and they were extremely lucky to win @ Philly and lucky to even have a chance vs Green Bay. The defense has been struggling as well allowing 6.0+ YPP in each of those games as well which isn’t ideal facing a red hot Seahawks offense. They are also really banged up in the defensive backfield as it looks like they will have only 4 healthy corners on the roster. One of those players is coming back from injury (Moseley) and two were not even on the active roster vs Green Bay. We expect Russell Wilson to have a huge day. Wilson has dominated San Francisco since taking over as Seattle’s starting QB in 2012. He is 15-4 SU vs the Niners in his career. The Hawks have also NEVER lost 3 games in a row since Wilson took over. They have lost 2 straight just 8 times in Wilson’s career and they are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS after those losses. The Niners, on the other hand, have been a terrible home favorite with an ATS record of just 5-20-1 ATS in that role since 2014. The better QB in a must win spot getting points is a nice situation. Seattle is the play. |
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10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
#178 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -3.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Okie State has played the MUCH tougher schedule here and they are 4-0 on the season. 3 of their wins have come vs Tulsa (who played Ohio St to the wire on the road), @ Boise State, and last week at home vs KSU. We have been impressed with their progression the last few weeks. Starting QB Sanders missed the first game of the season, struggled a bit vs Tulsa and Boise, but hit his stride last week throwing for 344 yards at home in a 31-20 win over Kansas State. His top WR Martin returned after missing the last 2 games and had 9 catches for 100 yards. The OSU defense has been playing lights out allowing just 2.6 YPC and 4.5 YPP on the season. They have allowed just 123 yards rushing total in their last 2 games vs Boise & KSU (2 YPC). That will be a problem for a Baylor team that prefers to run the ball (41 rushing attempts per game). The Bears are undefeated, however their first 3 wins were vs Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Their win last week vs Iowa State at home was one of the more misleading finals of the season. ISU gained 480 yards on 6.6 YPP in the game. Baylor gained 282 total yards on 5.2 YPP. The Bears offense scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game on 206 total yards. After that, they totaled 66 yards on 30 plays for barely 2 YPP. The Bears didn’t have to show much offensively in their first 3 games vs terrible opponents and they surprises the Cyclones with some new looks, plays, and wrinkles on offense. Once the ISU defense settled in Baylor did almost nothing. Their only points after the first 3 possessions came on a 98 yard kickoff return and a short FG after a long punt return. The favorite has covered 15 of the last 21 meetings and the home team has covered 13 of the last 19. We like OSU at home. |
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10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
#106 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa -4.5 over Houston, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason the team that sits with a 1-3 record is favored over the team that has a 3-1 record. Tulsa is at home for this one and they’ve played a very tough schedule to date including games @ Ohio State and @ Oklahoma State. In their 28-23 loss @ Oklahoma State they outgained the Cowboys in that game plus held their own in the trenches limiting them to just 3.3 YPC on the ground. OSU had a 99 yard kickoff return for TD in that game which was the difference. When the Golden Hurricanes traveled to Ohio State they more than held their own vs the Buckeyes rolling up 501 total yards to 508 for the Bucks. That game was tight throughout despite the final margin. Tulsa trailed by just a TD @ Ohio State with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. Last Saturday Tulsa was back at home and topped Arkansas State 41-34. It could have been much worse as they held a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter but ASU scored 13 of the games final 16 points including a 98 yard kickoff return. The stats in the game were extremely lopsided with Tulsa gaining 663 yards to 359 for Arkansas State. Houston steps in with a 3-1 record but they’ve played an easy schedule compared to Tulsa. The Cougs have faced Grambling, Rice, Navy, and Texas Tech thus far. Take out the Grambling game and the 2 wins for Houston vs Rice & Navy were not all that impressive. Those 2 teams are 0-6 SU combined vs FBS teams this season and 5 of those losses were blowouts. The only one that was close was Houston’s 28-20 win over Navy last week. The one decent team the Cougars played, Texas Tech, rolled them by 17 points outgaining Houston by 125 yards. Despite the big difference in opposition this season, Tulsa has gained an average of 6.9 YPP and allowed 5.6 YPP for a differential of +1.3 YPP. Houston’s YPP differential is +0.6 YPP despite their easy slate thus far. These 2 most recently met here in 2019 and Houston topped Tulsa as a 7-point dog despite getting outgained by 150 yards. Some revenge is in order on Friday night. We like this Tulsa team and feel they are undervalued right now. Lay the points here. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
#494 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +2 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is an absolute must win for Minnesota. They have played better than their 0-2 record as they really could easily be 2-0. They lost in OT @ Cincinnati when they fumbled getting into FG range for the winning points. Last week they played @ Arizona and missed what would have been the game winning FG as time expired. Now they get their home opener where they are an impressive 16-4 (80%) their last 20 as a home dog dating back to 2012. The Vikings got their rushing attack rolling last week with 177 yards on 6.6 YPC and they are facing a Seattle team that has allowed 162 YPG this year on the ground (31st). Minny RB Cook was banged up last week but all indications are he will play on Sunday. Seattle has a great home field advantage but laying points on the road had not been a money maker for this team. They are 1-0 this year in that role but just 5-14-2 ATS laying point on the road from 2016 – 2020. Seattle blew a lead at home vs Tennessee at home last week and lost in OT. The were outgained by 135 yards in that game. They’ve been outgained by 90 yards on the season thus far. Last year Minnesota was +6.5 @ Seattle and lost a tight game 27-26 but outgained the Hawks 449 to 314. We love this spot for the Vikings and expect them to win this game outright. We’ll take the points here. |
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09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
#387 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Tigers. They are coming off a HUGE home win over SEC Mississippi State and the week prior to that they beat rival Arkansas State 55-50. Last week’s 31-29 win over MSU was very deceiving. We were on Memphis so we picked up a win but if you would have shown us the final stats before the game was played, we would not have been on the Tigers. Memphis was -14 first downs and -222 yards in that win over Mississippi State. They had a 94-yard punt return and 49-yard fumble return both for TD’s. If they take UTSA lightly after last week’s big win, they will lose here. They may lose even if they play well. UTSA is a very solid, veteran team. They come into this game with a 3-0 record including a win @ Illinois in their other road game this season. Say what you will about the Illini, but in their other 2 home games they beat Nebraska and nearly beat Maryland so that was a very good road win for UTSA who had 497 total yards of offense in that game. Last week they Road Runners topped Middle Tennessee State by 14 points but it should have been much worse as they won the yardage battle by +253. Their senior QB Harris is one of the better “unknown” signal callers in the country, just ask Illinois. We have an edge at that position as the Memphis QB is a freshman that’s played in 3 games in his career. Dating back to last season UTSA has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming in their bowl game 31-24 vs a very good Louisiana team that finished last year 10-1. We’re getting the better team, getting points, in a better situation. Take Texas San Antonio. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia -4 over Wake Forest, Friday at 7 PM ET - We love this spot at home for UVA. They are off an embarrassing 59-39 loss @ North Carolina last Saturday. It was the Cavs first loss of the year. They are taking on a Wake team that is 3-0 but they’ve played all home games and faced a very easy schedule thus far. The Deacs topped an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Old Dominion) to start the season and then thumped a reeling Florida State team last week. While FSU isn’t very good – they lost at home the previous week to Jacksonville State – it was still a big win for WF vs a name program. The Wake defense has put up great numbers this year holding their 3 opponents to a combined 40 points but the offenses they’ve faced have been nothing close to what they’ll see on Saturday. Minus their FCS opponent, they have faced Old Dominion (122nd in total offense) and FSU (68th in total offense). Worse yet, those 2 teams aren’t adept at moving the ball through the air (ODU 118th in passing offense / FSU 84th in passing offense) and now they face a UVA team that leads the nation averaging 488 YPG through the air. The Cavs also rank 3rd in total offense and 11th in YPP offense. Wake’s defense takes a huge step up in competition on Saturday. UVA just saw one of the top offenses in the nation (UNC) last week and didn’t fare well but you can bet they’ll make adjustments this week and this will be a step down in competition for the Cavaliers. This is a game Virginia has been waiting for after losing 40-23 at Wake last year (Wake as a 2-point favorite). The yardage in the game was very close but the Cavs had 3 turnovers (0 for Wake), missed a FG, and were shut out on downs inside the WF 10-yard line. They had their chances to say the least. They haven’t been able to host WF since 2012 so it’s been almost a decade since they’ve had a shot at the Deacs here at home. Virginia has won 18 of their last 20 home games and only 3 of those 18 wins have come by less than a TD. Lay it. |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
#287 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +3.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We have some serious week 1 overreaction taking place here. Prior to last week Arizona was favored by -1.5 in this game and now that they destroyed Tennessee last week and Minnesota lost in OT @ Cincinnati, this line has crossed the key number of 3 and we’re getting the Vikings at +3.5. We’ll take it. Minnesota will bring their “A” game here after losing a tough one last week in OT. The Vikes outgained Cincy in the game and had the ball moving into FG territory in OT when RB Cook fumbled. Cincy then kicked the game winning FG 2 minutes later as time expired. Minny HC Zimmer has been fabulous as an underdog off a SU loss going 21-6-1 ATS their last 28 in that role. Arizona looked great last week vs a Tennessee team we had projected to regress big time this year. The Titans despite finishing with 11 wins in the regular season, had a point differential of just +52 which ranked them 7th in the AFC and 12th in the NFL. Over half of their wins last year (6) were by 3 points or less or in overtime. Tennessee was -13 YPG last season and right around dead even in their yards per play differential (+0.1 YPP differential). They weren’t nearly as good as their record last year and last week they showed that. 3 turnovers by Tennessee led directly to 14 points for Arizona including a 1-yard TD drive by the Cards after a Titan fumble. Arizona QB Murray played the game of his life vs a poor Tennessee defense that finished last year ranked 29th in total defense and 24th in scoring defense. We expect Murray to come back to earth this week vs what we project to be a very solid Minnesota defense. Look for the Vikings to get the running game rolling this week behind Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s rush defense was near the bottom of the NFL last year but Tennessee had to abandoned their running game pretty quickly last week after getting down big early. We like the coaching edge with Zimmer as well in this game as Arizona coach Kingsbury is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since taking over in Arizona. Take the points. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - After finishing with a solid 6-2 record but we felt they were due for a regression this year. The benefitted from a +8 turnover margin last year, they were outgained on the year despite their winning record, beat only 1 team that ended last year with a winning record, and their QB isn’t anywhere near 100%. Michael Penix is just 8 months removed from a 2nd ACL tear on the same knee. Our word from IU is that he is probably only 80% at best. You can see it in his play. His legs were a big part of his success at QB and he isn’t comfortable running yet this season. He’s very uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, which is understandable, but that does not lead to success throwing the ball. He’s barely averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means IU has become a dink and dunk offense. Their running game has been poor averaging 2.5 YPC vs Iowa and 3.6 YPC vs a bad Idaho team. That means in order to beat Cincy, most likely Penix will need a huge game and we just don’t see it. The Bearcats defensive front is every bit as good as Iowa’s who put constant pressure on Penix and held the Hoosiers to just 6 points. They bounced back after that loss and beat Idaho but not nearly as impressive as the score indicated. IU averaged just 4.8 YPP vs the Vandals and had 2 special teams TD’s in the game. Cincy was one of the best teams in the nation last year going 9-1 with their only loss coming by 3-points vs Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They return many key players from a great defense that allowed 16 PPG and just 4.6 YPP. They also bring back one of the better QB’s in the country as Desmond Ridder threw for 2,300 yards, 19 TD’s and rushed for almost 800 more. The Bearcats have won their first two games by a combined score of 91-21. That includes a 49-14 win over Miami Oh in week one and the Redhawks turned around and nearly won at Minnesota the following week showing how impressive that Cincinnati win was. We’re laying points on the road here but Cincinnati is the much better overall team at this time. Once Penix gets back to 100%, the Hoosiers will be much better but he’s nowhere near that right now. Lay it. |
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09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
#474 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Patriots will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL. It’s actually somewhat amazing they finished with a respectable 7-9 record as we’d argue the Covid situation affected this team more than any other. They had more opt outs on the season than every other team and a number of players that remained were hit hard including QB Newton who was never the same after contracted Covid. Newton is now gone and Belichick is going with rookie QB Jones from Alabama as the starter. It he simply manages the game and doesn’t make mistakes this team will be very solid. They spent more in free agency in the off season than any other team and they did so on very solid players as they always do. The New England defense will be one of the best in the NFL and facing a banged up Miami OLine. Fins starting LT Jackson is on the Covid list and may not play leaving a rookie or a lineman they signed 2 weeks ago as the starter. Pats are 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home vs Miami including 21-11 win here last year and outgained the Dolphins by 1.1 YPP in that game. New England was a 6.5 point favorite in that game and now they are laying 3 despite being vastly improved from a year ago. Miami, because they made the playoffs, we feel is a bit overvalued as they were outgained by 0.6 YPP by their opponents. Tua was a disaster last year (44.8 QBR – 26th in the NFL) and in his lone start vs Belichick’s depleted defense he threw for just 145 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 pick. We look for him to struggle again on Sunday. The host has covered 16 of the last 21 in this AFC East rivalry and we have the Patriots winning by more than a FG here. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
#377 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +7 over Michigan, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a pure value play on Washington. This line prior to last week’s games was Michigan -1 or -1.5. Now because Michigan beat Western Michigan handily and Washington was upset by an FCS team, this number moved through -3, -4, and -6 (three key numbers) and onto another key number -7. That’s simply too much of an overreaction after one week. Washington look poor last week no way around that. They turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t create a single turnover. The Huskies tallied just 291 total yards in their 13-7 loss vs Montana. UW had 11 more first downs, won the overall yardage & time of possession battle and the defense held the Grizzlies to 3.4 yards per play. They were flat and turnovers (-3) decided the game. We expect Washington to rally big time this week as they are now backed into a corner so to speak off that loss. The defense has a chance to be elite. Michigan ran the ball at will last week vs a small MAC defensive front but that won’t happen this week. Wolverine starting QB McNamara only completed 9 passes and didn’t have to do much to get this win. He’s still fairly inexperienced and will have to do much more here to get this win vs a big step up in competition. That was made much more difficult with Michigan WR Bell (top offensive player on the team) was injured last week and is now out for the season. The Wolverine defense was OK last week but WMU did get into Michigan territory 6 times and came away with only 14 points. Washington has not been an underdog of 7 or more points since 2016. This team had an energetic week of practice after their upset loss and they will be ready here. This one will be close. Take the points. |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -8 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 4 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -8 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - This spread opened -6.5 over the summer and has pushed through the key number of -7 with no buyback whatsoever. That speaks volumes. Our power rating on this is closer to -10 so we still think there is value with the Bucs. We expect Dallas to start the season slow on both sides of the ball. Offensively QB Prescott will be taking his first live snaps in almost a year as he was injured last October and hasn’t played since. Defensively the Cowboys were poor last year ranking 23rd in both YPG & YPP allowed. Now they are learning a different system under new DC Quinn and it will take them some time to get acclimated. Tampa is the opposite. They return all 22 starters which is extremely rare in the NFL and we look for them to be clicking on all cylinders right away. Last season the Bucs had to find their way so to speak with new QB Brady but they improved greatly as the season went on. Tampa scored 25 or more points in just 6 of their first 12 games and then put up 26+ in their final 8 games averaging 34 PPG during that stretch (including playoffs). WR Mike Evans was recently quoted as saying the TB offense is “miles” ahead of where it was last year at this time. We expect the Bucs defense to be one of the tops in the league again in 2021. They were #1 vs the run last year allowing just 81 YPG. They should be able to take away the Dallas rushing attack with the Cowboys top run blocker and top overall OL Martin out for this one due to Covid. That means Prescott will need a huge game in order for the Boys to stay in this one and we just don’t see that happening. Too much time away from full speed action for him just to turn it on and be at the top of his game. He hasn’t been able to work with his receivers vs real defensive bullets and his top WR Lamb has been out for a few weeks with Covid and just returned. Tampa wins this one by double digits. |
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09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State +17 over Washington State, Saturday at 11 PM ET - We expect USU to be drastically improved this year. This team was a train wreck last year and it was mainly due their leadership at the top. Former HC Gary Andersen was terrible. He quit at Wisconsin to take the Oregon State job. He then quit partway through the season on OSU and ended up back at Utah State where he was before he took the Badger job. USU was a rudderless ship last year and the players tanked the season to say the least. The players were so distraught they opted to not even play their final game of the season. They have since hired former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who was extremely successfully at ASU with a 51-37 record including 6 bowl appearances. He brought a few players with him from Arkie State including his starting QB Bonner who along with last year’s USU starter Peasley gives the Aggies a decent QB room. Word from Logan, Utah is the players love their new coach and have an entirely different attitude entering this season. They are experienced with 19 starters back and Anderson brought in a number of key Power 5 transfers from programs like Michigan, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Kansas who will contribute. This is a play against WSU as well. It’s really tough to lay 17 points with a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last few seasons. The Cougs allowed 38 PPG last season (1-3 overall record) and 32 PPG in 2019. They allowed 450+ YPG in both of those seasons. 2nd year head coach Rolovich came from Hawaii and he likes to run an up tempo offense trying to outscore opponents but last year they averaged just 27 PPG. Utah State should be able to put points on the board in this game and Washington State will have a tough time running away with this. Take the big points with USU. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
#153 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +3.5 over Northwestern, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as a small favorite in this game so we feel the value is on Sparty. They had a rough season last year with a 2-5 record, however it was their first year under new HC Tucker and we expect some solid improvement with a full year in both the offensive and defensive system. They return almost all of their key offensive players including an OLine that has combined to make 147 career starts which is the 4th most nationally. MSU upgrades at QB where they struggled greatly last year by adding Temple transfer Anthony Russo who had over 6,000 yards passing and 44 TD’s in his Temple career. The Spartans running game was poor last year but that should also improve greatly with a steady offensive line and Wake Forest transfer Walker starting at RB. Northwestern lost as much experience as any team in the country. They surprised many by winning the Big 10 West last year but bring back only 8 starters. The Cats lost their starting QB, most of their offensive line, and their top 4 pass catchers. Defensively they lost many of their key contributors including their top corner (to the NFL), top 2 pass rushers, and top 2 LB’s. Hunter Johnson was named the starting QB of the inexperienced offense and that’s not a good thing for NW. He was handed the job in 2019 and proceeded to complete just 46% of his passes, threw just 1 TD, and led an offense that averaged 14 PPG in his 6 starts. Their only win with Johnson at the helm was vs UNLV and he battled again for the job last year and did not play a single down during the season. Now he’s back as the starter. Not good. MSU had a down year in 2020, while NW won the Big 10 West yet in their only meeting a season ago the Spartans topped the Cats 29-20. It wasn’t a fluke as MSU outgained Northwestern by almost 100 yards and dominated in the trenches with 195 yards rushing while holding the Cats to 63. Now we expect a big improvement from Michigan State while Northwestern takes a big step back. No reason to believe MSU won’t win again this year taking that into consideration. NW has very little home field advantage with a 9-9 SU record here the last 3 season (very few fans, small stadium that is often overrun by opposing fans). Take the points with Michigan State |
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09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -18 over South Florida, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like NC State to be a surprise team in the ACC. We rate them as the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Wolfpack are coming off an 8-4 season and 2 of those losses were by 3 points or less. They are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 20 starters returning. Not only that, they have 28 players we’d consider “starters” due to the number of minutes they’ve played even when not starting. Their QB Leary played last year but was banged up for much of the season and he is back healthy. They have a solid and experienced offensive line, they bring back all of their top RB’s and WR’s and their defense returns it’s top 12 tacklers from last year. USF is in rebuilding mode in HC Jeff Scott’s 2nd year. The Bulls were decimated by Covid last year (as many teams were) and finished 1-8 with their only win coming vs the Citadel. 5 of their 8 losses came by at least 20 points. Since the start of the 2019 season this team has won only 5 games and 2 of those 5 wins were vs non FBS opponents (the Citadel & South Carolina St). They have a new starting QB Fortin who threw only 8 passes in last year’s injury riddled season. The offense topped 4.5 yards per play only 3 times in 8 games vs FBS teams last year and breaking in a new QB they will probably struggle early in the year. The Bulls defense was poor last year to say the least allowing 40 PPG on 441 YPG including getting whipped up front giving up 212 YPG rushing. They put zero pressure on the opposing QB netting just 7 sacks the entire season – only Navy & Arizona had fewer. USF has played 3 Power 5 teams the last 2 seasons (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, & Georgia Tech) and they’ve lose those games by an average score of 38-3. This is a bad first match up for this team and we expect a 20+ point win for NC State. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
#300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +7 over Nebraska, Saturday, August 28th at 12:00 PM ET - There is always a lot of optimism in Huskerland entering every season, however the results have not matched the “fan” expectations. This team is favored by a full TD, on the road in their Big 10 opener yet they are just 9-17 SU overall in conference play under head coach Scott Frost. They have won just 4 conference games by more than 7 points in the last 3 years. We believe they are overvalued entering the season (as per usual) and their opponent in game 1 we feel is a bit undervalued right now. The Illini had a rough 2-6 season last year but they were decimated at QB pushing all the way down to their 4th stringer due to injury/illness. This year they expect senior Brandon Peters, former Michigan starter, to have a big season and we agree. He’s operating behind a very solid, veteran offensive line that could turn out to be one of the better units in the conference. The defense returns 16 of their top 18 tacklers and new head coach Bret Bielema knows defense and likes what he sees on that side of the ball. Up front they should be vastly improved defensively with their entire DLine coming back, all upperclassmen, and a few key LB’s back in the line up that were injured last season. They should be able to limit a Nebraska running game that relies too heavily on QB Martinez (leading rusher last year). The Huskers don’t have a single RB returning that rushed from more than 75 yards the entire 2020 season. That means Nebraska may have to have a big day through the air to win this one and we simply don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez who finished 12th in the Big 10 averaging only 150 YPG passing last year. Despite their struggles last season, the Illini were able to waltz into Lincoln and whip the Huskers 41-23 on nearly 500 yards of total offense. The year before Nebraska went to Illinois and barely escaped with a 42-38 win. We expect Illinois to have a solid shot at winning this game at home and getting a TD is generous. Bielema and his new staff have pretty much given the fans and media no access to practices so Nebraska will be guessing a bit when it comes to what Illinois will be doing on both sides of the ball here. Take the points. |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore +2.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - The Ravens should have a huge advantage on the ground in this game. They are the #1 rush offense in the NFL (191 YPG) and they’ve been on fire as of late averaging 262 YPG rushing over their last 6 games including topping 230 yards rushing in 5 of those games. That success should continue facing a Buffalo defense that allows 4.7 YPG (27th in the NFL) and gave up 163 yards on 5.4 YPC last week vs Indy. The Bills found a way to win that game but they were outgained on the ground and through the air in that one. Buffalo is a poor running team already and lost their top RB Moss to an injury last week. Baltimore has a fairly large edge overall defensively ranking in the top 10 in many key categories. They have the highest blitz rate in the NFL and we think Buffalo QB Allen will make some mistakes because of that pressure. Last week the Ravens held the Titans (6th ranked offense in the NFL) to just 209 total yards. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a great road playoff coach has he now owns the all time record for wins on the road in the post season with 8. He has a road warrior type team as the Ravens are 15-3 SU their last 18 road games and 13-4 ATS their last 17 road playoff games. Not only that, Baltimore QB Jackson has started 39 games in his career and only lost 3 of those by more than 6 points so when they do lose, it’s close. Baltimore led the NFL in point differential for the 2nd straight year and we feel they are undervalued. With very little to no home field advantage and the way the Ravens perform on the road, we’ll take the points here. |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -111 | 74 h 3 m | Show |
#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -5.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers are a perennial playoff team having made the post-season in 8 of Mike Tomlin’s 14 years as head coach. They know what the playoffs are all about. That gives them a big advantage here over a Cleveland team that is in the post-season for the first time in 18 years. The playoffs are a different animal. That’s why inexperienced QB’s tend to struggle at this time of year. In fact, QB’s making their first playoff appearance (Mayfield) are 14-36 ATS. It’s just really tough to prepare for something you don’t know or you’ve never been a part of. These two met last week in Cleveland and the Browns were in a must win and still barely won the game 24-22. That was with Pittsburgh sitting QB Roethlisberger and a number of other starters including most of their key defensive players. Pittsburgh STILL outgained Cleveland for the game and on a YPP basis with Mason Rudolph at QB. Their other meeting this year when both teams were at full strength, the Steelers won 38-7. Not only is Cleveland new to this experience, they’ve been dealing with plenty of distractions this week. Their facilities have been closed all week due to Covid. They’ve been preparing for this game virtually. On top of that their head coach Stefanski, who’s led their resurgent offense, won’t be at this game due to Covid. A number of players are potentially out as well for the same reason. A less than ideal situation leading into a playoff game to say least. Cleveland’s offense doesn’t match up well in this game. The Steelers have the #1 defense in the league when it comes to pressuring the QB. Mayfield stinks when under pressure (43% completion rate). Pitt sacked him 8 times in the 2 meeting and in the game @ Pittsburgh they held Mayfield to his lowest QBR of the season. The Browns are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential on the season and they have lost 17 straight here in Pittsburgh. We’ll lay it and say the Steelers win by double digits. |
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01-03-21 | Raiders v. Broncos +3 | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Raiders should be flat as a pancake here having been eliminated from the playoffs in excruciating fashion last weekend. They opted not to score a TD (took a knee at the 1 yard line) in order to run clock and kick what looked like the game winning FG vs Miami with just 18 seconds remaining. The Fins however moved the ball into FG range in one play (Fitzpatrick long pass + personal foul penalty) and kicked a FG to win as time expired. Devasting loss for Vegas and now they head on the road in a meaningless game. Denver has a poor home record (2-5 SU) but they’ve played a brutally tough home slate (KC, Buffalo, New Orleans, Miami, Tampa Bay, Tennessee). Their most recent game they were creamed by Buffalo who is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. We expect them to play well here to atone for that poor performance. We were very impressed with the way the Broncos bounced back last week after that loss giving the Chargers all they could handle on the road. Denver lost 19-16 but outgained LA by 80 yards, had 7 more first downs, and topped them on the ground 133 to 89. If not for a number of dropped passes, including a few big plays and one that would have been a TD, the Broncos would have won the game. They are still playing hard and competing which is a good sign here as we don’t expect Vegas to do the same. The Raiders beat up on Denver earlier this year 37-12 but the score was a bit deceiving as the yardage was near even but the Broncs had 5 turnovers. Vegas is in a freefall. They were right square in the middle of playoff contention in mid November but have now lost 5 of their last 6 and been outgained and outrushed in 5 of those 6. Their offensive line is really banged up (starting all pro OT Brown is out) and RB Jacobs is hurting as well (only 13 carries vs Miami). Denver has a big edge defensively ranking 14th DVOA on Football Outsiders with Vegas ranking 28th. The leaky Raider defense has given up an average of 34 PPG over their last 6. Denver was +6 at home vs Buffalo, +7 vs KC, +3.5 vs Tennessee, +6 vs Tampa, and +4 vs Miami, all playoff teams. Now they are in the same range (+3 but dropping to +2.5) vs a non-playoff Raider team that very well might have packed it in for the season. Take Denver here. |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
#496 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Big 12 has shown themselves very well thus far with Oklahoma rolling over Florida, Oklahoma State topping Miami, and Texas crushing Colorado (WVU won as well). The Pac 12 has had just one game and that was the blowout we just mentioned. The Buffs were a near perfect 4-1 in Pac 12 play this year and they took on a depleted Texas team, with a number of starters opted out, in the Alamo Bowl and lost 55-23. Iowa State played those teams (Texas & Oklahoma) to the wire this year beating OU by 7 and Texas by 3 in the regular season and then losing to OU by 6 in the Big 12 Championship game. Their only other Big 12 loss this season was by a FG to Oklahoma State. Thus, there 2 conference losses came against bowl teams who both won their bowl games (OU in blowout fashion) by a combined 9 points (they did lose to another bowl team UL Lafayette in the season opener way back in early Sept). Their 8 Big 12 wins came by an average of +18.3 PPG. They are rolling on both sides of the ball right now. On offense the Cyclones have put up at least 435 yards of total offense in 5 of their last 6 games. They actually outgained Oklahoma in their Conference Championship loss but had 3 turnovers. They have also averaged 37 PPG during that stretch. On defense they’ve held their last 6 opponents to an average of just 17.6 PPG. While ISU was obviously disappointed to lose in the Big 12 Championship game, we’re hearing they are thrilled to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, which is the most prestigious bowl this program has ever played in. Oregon was supposed to be the top team in the weak Pac 12 this year but that wasn’t the case. They did beat USC in the Pac 12 Championship game but the Ducks weren’t even supposed to be in that game. They backed in when Washington, the Pac 12 North Champs, weren’t able to field enough players due to a covid outbreak. Even though they beat the Trojans to win the conference, Oregon was outgained by 115 yards in that game and scored their first 2 TD’s on drives of 9 and 32 yards following USC turnovers. Two of their other three wins were vs teams that finished the season below .500. Their 2 losses were vs Oregon State (finished with a 2-5 record) and California (finished with a 1-4 record). Oregon played a weak schedule and their season stats weren’t overly impressive with a +20 YPG differential. Compare that to Iowa State, who played a much tougher schedule, and had a YPG differential of +97. ISU is better in the trenches running the ball for 192 YPG while allowing only 105 on the ground. The Cyclones are also better at the key position on the field, quarterback. ISU QB Purdy is finishing up his 3rd year as the starter and has thrown for nearly 9,000 yards and 61 TD’s. Oregon starter Shough is fairly inexperienced as this is his first year as a starter and he’s not a great passer. We also like the coaching match up here as ISU’s Campbell is FAR superior to the Ducks Cristobal. We like Iowa State to win this game by double digits. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -9 over Ball State, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - This SJSU team has flown under the radar the entire season. They are a perfect 7-0 and are seeking their first undefeated season since 1939. Just two seasons ago this team was 1-11. They are HIGHLY motivated to close out with an undefeated season and we expect to see the Spartans at their best on Thursday. If they are at their best, this team is much better than Ball State. All 7 of SJSU’s wins this year have come by double digits including a 14 point win over a very good Boise State team in the MWC Championship game. The Spartans outgained the Broncos by 240 yards in that game! For the season they outgained their opponents by more than 100 YPG and by a full 2 yards per play (6.9 YPP offense & 4.9 YPP defense) in the much tougher MWC (compared to the MAC). QB Starkel, who played at both Arkansas & Texas A&M, was a grad transfer who led this offense with over 300 YPG passing. The Spartans have one of the most potent passing attacks in the country which is bad news for a Ball State defense that allowed 296 YPG through the air (119th nationally). The 2 best pass offenses the Cardinals faced this season were Western Michigan & Toledo and those 2 teams put up 275 yards passing & 2 TD’s and 407 yards passing & 3 TD’s in those 2 games respectively. Ball State, on the other hand, relies heavily on their running game (45 carries per game but only 3.9 YPC) and they are facing an SJSU defense that gives up only 3.3 YPC. The 2 best rushing attacks they faced this season were Air Force (2nd nationally) & San Diego State (32nd nationally). They held the Falcons to 206 yards rushing (100 yards below their average) and the Aztecs to 101 yards rushing (99 yards below their average). Ball State ranks 53rd nationally running the ball and they’ll be without, by far, their best RB here (Caleb Huntley) who opted out after rushing for just under 3,000 yards in his career. This Spartan defense did not allow more than 24 points in a game this season and we like them to really slow down this Ball State attack. The Cards already won their “Super Bowl” so to speak by beating Buffalo in the MAC Championship game despite getting outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.5 YPP. Ball State was outgained 6.1 YPP to 5.8 YPP on the season despite playing an easier schedule than San Jose who was +2.0 YPP as we mentioned above. The MAC has been historically bad in bowl games with an 18-35-2 ATS record their last 55 as bowl underdogs. Ball State is also historically bad in bowl games going 0-7 SU lifetime with 5 of those 7 losses coming by at least 9 points. This game is being played out west in Arizona which is a definite positive for San Jose State. The Cardinal players are just happy to get away from the cold and snow in this vacation type game. We’ll lay the points with San Jose State as we expect the Spartans to roll in this game. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-55 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
#297 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado +8.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - We know Colorado is thrilled to be in the Alamo Bowl. We’re not so sure Texas can say the same. Once again the Longhorns had much higher aspirations and fell short of their goals with a 6-3 record. They blew out a poor KSU team to end the season and might be taking this one lightly or have little interest at all. The Horns have had a number of opt outs for this game including top WR Eagles, starting LT Cosmi, starting C Kerstetter, starting DE Ossai, starting DT Graham, and starting safeties Sterns & Brown. That doesn’t sound like a team that cares all that much about this game. There is still talk about whether HC Herman is the right man for the program after underachieving during his tenure and he now has former players chiming in on his lack of coaching acumen. Just not a great overall situation to close out the season for Texas. The Buffs were a surprise this year under new head coach Dorrell. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and by all indications the players love their new head coach. They won 2 games outright as an underdog and Dorrell has been fantastic as an underdog covering 12 of his last 13 when getting points dating back to his HC days at UCLA. Their only loss this season was vs Utah in their season finale, a game Colorado actually led 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. They outgained and outrushed 4 of their 5 opponents this season. Their offense should thrive here vs a Texas defense that allowed 410 YPG and is without many of their top players as mentioned above. Even in their blowout win over KSU to close out the season, the Horns gave up 448 total yards to a Wildcat offense that ranks 106th in total offense. We’re confident that CU will stay in this game throughout and we’re getting more than a TD as a cushion. Take the points. |
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12-27-20 | Rams +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#475 ASA PLAY ON 10* LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking for good teams coming off bad losses and we couldn’t ask for a better spot than taking the Rams a week after losing to the Jets as a 17 point favorite. Over the last decade, there have been 10 teams that were favored by -13 or more, were above .500 at the time, and lost. Those teams bounced back to cover at an 80% rate the following week (8 of 10 covered). The Rams match up very well with the Seahawks beating them 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss during that stretch coming by 1 point. Seattle already has a spot in the playoffs locked up while the Rams do not. The winner of this game has the inside track to the NFC West title and we’ll take the team that’s better on both sides of the ball. LA has a huge edge defensively as they rate as the top defense in the NFL (total defense & YPP defense) and also rank as the #4 DVOA defense on Football Outsiders. Seattle ranks 25th in total defense and 20th in DVOA defense. There has been some chatter about Seattle’s defense improving over the last month which it has if you look at straight numbers. However, their last 4 opponents have been Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Redskins and all 4 of those teams rank 22nd or lower in total offense with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 31st, and 32nd. The fact is Seattle struggled in 3 of those 4 games vs inferior opponents going to the wire in their tight wins over the Eagles and Redskins and in their home loss to the Giants. Their games vs the Giants and Redskins came vs back up QB’s McCoy and Haskins as well. The Rams & Seahawks have played nearly identical schedules being the same division and LA is +97 YPG on the season while Seattle is -6 YPG. LA has been an underdog 3 times and won 2 of those games outright with their lone loss in that spot coming by 3 points @ Buffalo. In their last 3 road games the Rams have outgained the Cardinals by 231 yards, outgained Tampa by 162 yards, and outgained Miami by 326 yards. We’ll take the better team in a must win spot here. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -3.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Conference USA has proven to be a dud on the bowls thus far. They are currently 0-4 getting outscored by a whopping 85 points in those 4 games. When the Sun Belt has faced off vs CUSA in the bowl games thus far, the Belt is 2-0 with Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3 & App State beating North Texas 56-28. That’s relevant because we have Georgia State (from the Sun Belt) facing Western Kentucky (from CUSA) in this game. Western Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in college football ranking 120th in total offense, 111th in passing offense, 99th in rushing offense, and 115th in scoring. There’s been some chatter about their offense coming to life in easy wins over Charlotte & FIU, who have a 2-9 combined record, but what looks like a scoring outburst from the Hilltoppers wasn’t so much as they scored 4 defensive TD’s in those 2 games combined. The fact is, this team has scored a grand total of 19 offensive TD’s in 11 games this year. That’s it. They are facing a Georgia State team that averaged 33 PPG on the season and WKY’s highest offensive output the entire season was just 24 points (minus defensive TD’s). While Western Kentucky’s defense has solid numbers on the year, this is a bad match up for them. The strength of their defense is on the back end as they defend the pass very well. Their rush defense allows 166 YPG and they are facing a GSU offense that loves to run (43 carries per game for 190 yards). The Georgia State defensive numbers aren’t great but they really played well down the stretch allowing just 18 PPG over their last 3 games which included match ups with App State (GSU lost 17-13) and Georgia Southern (State won 30-24) who both won their bowl games already in blowout fashion. State is solid vs the run which matches up well with a WKY that likes to run (but isn’t great at it averaging 3.9 YPC) but it not a good passing team. Georgia State has already proven to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt taking App State & Louisiana, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league, to the wire in tight losses and beating Georgia Southern. The only team they weren’t competitive with was Coastal Carolina who is ranked 12th in the country with an 11-0 record. As we mentioned the Sun Belt has walloped CUSA in their 2 meetings thus far and we have no reason to believe Georgia State can’t cover this small number on Saturday. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -6 over Louisiana Tech, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET - We can take quite a bit from Monday’s bowl match up between App State & North Texas and apply it to this game. App State dominated that game rushing for over 500 yards in a 56-28 win. What does that have to do with this game? Well Georgia Southern plays in Sun Belt along with App State and La Tech plays in CUSA along with North Texas. Southern faced App State on the road in the final game of the regular season and gave them all they could handle. They actually led in the 4th quarter and were outgained by only 32 yards. La Tech played North Texas on December 3rd and while they won by 11 points, the Bulldogs were outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis. That’s the same UNT team that App State outgained 11.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP on Monday. UNT ran 95 offensive snaps to just 56 for App State and STILL lost by 4 TD’s. Ga Southern runs a unique triple option scheme on offense that is tough to prepare for. The Eagles rank 7th nationally in rushing at 262 YPG. La Tech is not a strong run defense ranking 88th so GSU should control the line of scrimmage here. The Eagles starting QB Werts was out the last 2 games, including their down to the wire loss @ App State, but has been practicing a most likely will play here. Even if not, the starter will be senior Moseley who has plenty of experience in this offense. Speaking of offense, La Tech is a wreck on that side of the ball. They rank 113th nationally in total offense and they will be without their starting QB Anthony here who was lost to a season ending injury in their regular season finale. His back up Allen only attempted 97 passes this season and this team can’t run the ball (97 YPG rushing) which will put more pressure on the QB to make plays. Tech has a 5-4 record on the season but they were outgained on a YPP basis in every game this year (minus Houston Baptist). They average only 4.1 YPP in their 8 games vs FBS opponents and will struggle to keep up here. Georgia Southern wins the trenches on both sides of the ball here and a team that can do that normally comes out on top. Lay it with Georgia Southern. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -21 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* App State -21 over North Texas, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - App State is the FAR superior team here and they are motivated. This is a senior laden squad that is looking for their 5th straight bowl win. The seniors have addressed the team wanting to make sure they go 4-0 in their careers in bowl games. Football Outsiders has App State is ranked as 28th best team and UNT 122nd (out of 130). Our numbers concur with that. App State is by far the best team North Texas has played this season. SMU is next best ranked 44th and they beat UNT by 30. The Mean Green also lost to the 95th ranked team (UTSA) by 32 and the 116th ranked team (Charlotte) by 28. North Texas had one of the better offenses in the country this year, however they played a horrible slate of defenses. App State will be by far the best defense they’ve faced this year. They will also be short handed as their #1 offensive weapon, WR Darden who accounted for nearly half of their receiving yards this season and scored 19 TD’s, tops in the nation. They will also be minus one of their 2 QB’s which is significant as they’ve rotated throughout the year and their missing QB, Aune, is their best passer. UNT horrible defensively especially vs the run (243 rushing YPG allowed) and App St a very good running team (243 rushing YPG). They give up 41 PPG on the season. They have allowed at least 40 points vs 6 of their 8 FBS opponents this season. They won’t stop App State in this game. With their offense not a full strength and facing the best defense they’ve seen, we don’t expect UNT to put up a ton of points here. While App State is going for their 6th straight bowl win, the Mean Green are 1-5 their last 6 bowl appearances and their most recent post-season appearance was a 52-13 loss in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl. This one has blowout potential. |
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12-20-20 | Patriots +1.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
#353 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England +1.5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Pats are off a 24-3 loss @ LA Rams and they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game as that was on a Thursday. Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare his defense and you’re usually going to get a great scheme and effort. Give him extra time to prepare facing a rookie QB and then watch out. In his New England career, Belichick has faced 30 rookie QB’s. His record in those games is 25-5 SU. The last 11 times he’s faced a rookie QB for the very first time, he’s 11-0 SU in those games. This will be the first time he faces Miami QB Tagovailoa. Two weeks ago New England was in a similar spot as a small road dog vs everyone’s rookie of the year QB Herbert for the Chargers. What happened in that game? Patriots won 45-0 holding Herbert to 0 TD’s and under a 50% completion rate with 2 picks. Miami is coming off what looks like a close battle with KC last week as they lost 33-27 picking up the tight cover as 7-point underdogs. The truth is, they were down 30-10 entering the 4th quarter and they were outgained 7.3 YPP to 4.8 YPP. The 2 games prior to last week the Fins played the Jets & Bengals, the 2 worst teams in the NFL (Miami won both). Since Tagovailoa took over, the Dolphins are 4-2 in his starts but they’ve been lucky to get to that mark as they’ve been dominated statistically. In fact, if we throw out their game vs the Bengals (he didn’t start or play vs the Jets), in the other 5 games Miami has been outgained by 766 total yards. We expect the NE defense to have lots of success here. Offensively they should move the ball as well. This is a bad match up for the Miami defense. Their weakness is definitely stopping the run as they rank 21st in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 26th in YPC allowed. Facing a New England offense that runs the ball more than any other team with Newton at QB and ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing is not ideal for the Fins. They’ve faced only two other top 10 rushing team this year in the Cardinals & Rams. Arizona rushed for 178 yards on nearly 5 YPC and the Rams put up 131 yards rushing on 4.5 YPC. Lastly, road underdogs of 6 points or less this season in games expected to be low scoring (total set at 45 or less) are 15-1 ATS. We like New England to win this game. |
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12-19-20 | Panthers +8 v. Packers | Top | 16-24 | Push | 0 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina +8 over Green Bay, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET The Panthers are much better than their 4-9 record. For the season they are just -9 YPG and they actually outgain their opponents on a YPP basis (+0.1). Those are normally the numbers of a .500 type team. They have played a number of close games with 7 of their 9 losses coming by one score (8 points) which would get them a cover here at +8.5 or +9. The Panthers are cashing at a 70% rate as a dog this season (7-3 ATS) and we think they’ll keep this one within a TD. They get top WR Moore back in the line up and we love taking NFL dogs that can score points and Carolina can do that. They are averaging 26 PPG when Bridgewater starts at QB and they should be able to put up points vs this Green Bay defense that is OK, but not great by any means. The Packers have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games and the only offense that didn’t put up points over the last month vs this defense was Philly who has been a wreck on that side of the ball. Green Bay clinched the NFC North last week with a win over Detroit so while they are still fighting for the #1 seed, we wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t at the top of their game here. Bridgewater is an amazing 18-2 ATS as an underdog in non-division games and we like him to get another cover on Saturday night. Since their road opener @ Tampa, the Panthers have covered 5 straight road games including a 3 point loss @ New Orleans and a 2-point loss @ KC, two of the top teams in the NFL. This one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points. |
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12-19-20 | Illinois v. Penn State -15 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
#214 ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -15 over Illinois, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET Two teams definitely headed in opposite directions here. PSU has saved their season after starting 0-5 they have now rebounded to win 3 straight. Word out of Happy Valley is they are now having fun and excited to be playing and you can see it in their performance. Illinois, on the other hand, just got trounced by their in-state rival Northwestern and fired their coach this week. Now they have to go on the road and try to muster up the energy to play in a meaningless game with a lame duck interim coach. This is a very tough spot for the Illini. The Illinois defense is bad ranking dead last in the Big 10 in total defense, 13th in rush defense, and their pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 70% of their passes, the worst in the league. Last Saturday they allowed Northwestern to roll up 411 yards rushing. The Cats aren’t a great running team as they were averaging only 3.1 YPC entering last week. PSU’s offense has come alive during their 3 game winning streak averaging 30 PPG over those 3 and now they face the worst defense they’ve seen this year. The Nittany Lions are much better than their record. They were a top 10 team to start the season. They’ve outgained every team this year with the exception of Ohio State & Iowa. This team is 3-5 but they rank 2nd in the Big 10 in total offense and 4th in total defense. They can be vulnerable at times defending the pass, however Illinois is the worst passing team in the conference both on a YPG basis (180 YPG) and on a completion percentage basis (just 48%). On top of that, their best WR opted out this week and won’t play in this game. The records here are similar but there is really a pretty wide gap between these two. ON the season PSU has a +76 YPG differential and Illinois is -91 YPG. Just comparing these two alone, PSU is +51 YPG on offense and +116 YPG defensively. If Illinois gets down in this game, which we feel they will, we have a feeling this could get ugly. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon +3.5 v. USC | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon +3.5 over USC, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a classic underrated vs overrated spot in our opinion. Entering the season our research told us that Oregon was the best team in the Pac 12. We weren’t the only ones who shared that opinion as many other handicappers we respect felt the same way. Oregon lost 2 games along the way to their current 3-2 record. Both games were tight losses by 4 & 3 points and the Ducks had the ball late in the 4th quarter in each with a chance to win. What would this line be if Oregon had one both of those game which they certainly could have? In their most recent 21-17 loss @ Cal, the Ducks outgained the Bears by nearly 100 yards and had the ball in Cal territory in 3 of their last 4 possessions with a shot to win. Those possessions ended in 2 fumbles and a shut out on downs at the Bear 18 yard line. Speaking of fumbles, that has been a problem for the Ducks as they are -11 on the season, in just 5 games yet the STILL have a winning record. The Trojans are the exact opposite for us. They are very solid, but not as good as their 5-0 record. They’ve had to make 3 fourth quarter comebacks to get to their 5 wins. Last week vs arch rival UCLA, they trailed by 18 points made another late comeback scoring a TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game to win by 5. As long as Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch, we think USC’s luck runs out here. In fact, of the Ducks can keep this TO margin even, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. For the season the 3-2 Ducks are +47 YPG and +1.6 YPP. USC, vs a very similar schedule with 2 common opponents, is +35 YPG and only +0.1 YPP. Speaking of those common opponents this is where we see the value in this line with Oregon as a dog. They both played UCLA with Oregon favored by 18.5 in that game at home and USC favored by 3 at home. They both played Washington State with Oregon favored by 10.5 on the road and USC favored by 11 at home. Should Oregon actually be favored in this game. We wouldn’t disagree if that was the case. Take Oregon to win the Pac 12 Championship on Friday Night. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Las Vegas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Vegas is absolutely heading in the wrong direction. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and their last 3 games have been downright atrocious. Three weeks ago they traveled to Atlanta to play a Falcons team that was 4-7 at the time. The Raiders were dominated 43-6. A week after that they trailed the winless Jets with just seconds remaining but connected on a hail mary to win by 3. The LV defense allowed a terrible Jet offense to average 6.3 YPP in that game. That’s a NY offense that ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.7 YPP on the season. Last week in a must win game at home, the Raiders were again dominated losing 44-27 to the Colts. The defense was again shredded for 7.7 YPP. Now that already poor defense will be without 4 starters on Thursday night. The Chargers have a poor record but at least they’ve been competitive which is more than we can say as of late for the Raiders. With the exception of their no show a few weeks ago vs New England, seven of their eight other losses have come by one score (8 points or less). They have some momentum coming off a home win vs the Falcons, the same team that walloped the Raiders 43-6 a few weeks ago as we mentioned above. Being in the same division these two have played a very similar schedule. Vs the schedule, the Chargers are +46 YPG on the season while Las Vegas is -15 YPG. In the first meeting in November, Las Vegas won 31-26 however they were -10 first downs and -120 total yards. LA looks like they’ll be the much healthier team here as WR’s Allen & Williams along with RB Ekeler all practiced this week despite being listed as questionable. The dog is 17-6 ATS in this AFC West rivalry and there is no way we’re laying points with the Raiders the way they are playing right now. Chargers are the side. |
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12-13-20 | Packers -8 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
#151 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -8 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not sure how Detroit stops the Packers in this game. Their defense ranks dead last in DVOA (Football Outsiders), 31st in scoring allowing 30 PPG, and 28th in YPP allowed. Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL (29th in yards per pass attempt allowed) and they put no pressure on the QB (27th in sack percentage). That’s a terrible recipe vs Aaron Rodgers and this red hot offense. The Packers have scored 31, 41, and 30 points their last 3 games vs solid defenses (Indy, Chicago, and Philly). What will they do this Sunday when they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL? If the first meeting is any indication, it will be ugly. The Packers put up 42 points in that game on nearly 500 total yards. Detroit’s defense has given up 71 points in just the last 2 weeks including 30 points to Chicago. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell led the Lions to a win last week at Chicago, but let’s face it there was some serious luck involved. They were down 30-20 with less than 3:00 minutes remaining in the game and Chicago had the ball and a 10 point lead. The conditions for offense in the dome will be perfect and Green Bay is averaging 37 PPG this season in the dome and many of those games are facing defenses a lot better than this Detroit team (New Orleans & Indy). GB is going to score a vast majority of their possessions and the Detroit offense is going to have to keep up. Matthew Stafford still has a bad throwing hand, his top RB Swift is most likely out again, and his top WR Golladay remains out. Detroit has a grand total of 1 home win this season and that was a 3 point win vs Washington on a last second field goal in a game the Lions were outgained by nearly 100 yards. Rodgers owns the NFC North with a 45-26 ATS record in his career. A win here locks up the division and we like the Packers to roll here. |
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12-12-20 | Stanford v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
#124 ASA CFB TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Stanford, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This is simply a terrible situation for Stanford. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and they haven’t even been home period since last Tuesday, Dec 1st. Santa Clara county announced that contact sports would be put on hold starting November 30th and lasting until at least December 21st. Because of that, the only way Stanford can play or practice was to leave the area. Last Tuesday they made their way to Seattle, stayed in a hotel, practiced where they could and then played Washington on Saturday. The Cardinal were able to pull together and pick up a huge upset beating the Huskies 31-26 as a 13 point underdog. That was just a week after they beat arch rival Cal 24-23. So now Stanford is off back to back huge wins and on the road again vs a team they probably will have trouble getting excited about, Oregon State. On top of that, Stanford traveled straight from Seattle to Corvallis, has been living in a hotel again this week preparing for this game and they are now a road favorite. Not ideal to say the least. OSU is underrated in our opinion. Two weeks ago they upset Oregon here 41-38 putting up 260 yards on the ground. Top RB Jefferson 226 yards. A week earlier they beat Cal here at home with Jefferson rushing for 196 yards vs a very good Golden Bear defense. After their big win over the Ducks, OSU traveled to Utah short handed missing a number of players due to covid including RB Jefferson. Starting QB Gebbia who was injured vs Oregon and is out for the season. Despite being shorthanded, they played a solid Utah team to the wire losing 30-24. Back up QB Nolan got his feet wet last week and played pretty well @ Utah throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 36. The Beavers get RB Jefferson back here along with some other key players who were out last week. They should be able to run the ball very well on this Stanford defense that ranks 100th nationally stopping the run. Bad spot for Stanford vs a undervalued OSU team. Take the points. |
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12-07-20 | Bills +2 v. 49ers | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +2 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco has had plenty of distractions leading up to this game as they’ve had to move their entire operation to Phoenix where they will play the remainder of their “home” games. Making it worse, the Niners have already been on the road 4 of their last 5 games. This will be the 5th weekend they’ve been away from home since October 25th. We also like the line value here. Our power ratings have Arizona a few spots ahead of SF and Buffalo was +3 here vs the Cards just a few weeks ago. Now they are +2 vs SF on this neutral site. In that game vs the Cardinals on November 15th the Bills led 23-9 midway through the 3rd quarter. That was the infamous hail mary game as Arizona QB Murray threw a 43 yard TD pass to WR Hopkins with 2 second remaining in the game to pull out a miracle 32-30 come from behind win. Buffalo had this solid Arizona team beat on their home field. SF’s defense has some solid numbers this year but they have struggled with mobile QB’s which Buffalo’s Josh Allen definitely is. When facing Arizona (Kyler Murray), Seattle (Russell Wilson), New Orleans (Taysom Hill) and New England (Cam Newton) the Niners are just 1-3 with their only win coming vs the Patriots. San Fran is getting some extra love after pulling the upset vs the Rams in their most recent game. Let’s not forget prior to that upset, they had lost 3 in a row all by double digits. QB Mullens is not a bet on signal caller in our opinion as he is just 5-9 in his 14 NFL career starts. Seems like everyone is on the Niners here as we’ve flopped favorite as Buffalo opened as a 2.5 point favorite. We’ll gladly take the value and go against everybody here. |
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12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -3 over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We love this spot for Indy. They are off a blowout home loss to Tennessee last week. The defense, which was short handed last Sunday, allowed Tennessee 6.6 YPP which is their worst performance of the season. Even with that, this Colt defense ranks 7th in the NFL in YPP allowed. They were without their top DL Buckner and their top DE Autry who lead the team in sacks. Both are back for this game and we expect an angry Indy defense that plays very well. Offensively they were also without their top RB Taylor last week and he is back on Sunday. Houston, on the other hand, has lost a number of key players this week. Their top WR Fuller and top DB Roby have both been suspended for using PED’s. The loss of Fuller is huge for this offense as he had become QB Watson’s favorite target with 22 catches for almost 400 yards over the last 4 games. They are now really thin at WR after cutting Kenny Stills last week and losing Randall Cobb to injury. That’s a big problem for a team that can’t run the ball (31st in the NFL averaging only 83 YPG on the ground). On the other side of the ball the Texans rank 30th in total defense and 30th in YPP defense. So that can’t run the ball, their defense has been poor, and they are now very inexperienced at WR. Not a winning combination. The Texans have won 3 of their last 4 but they’ve been outgained in each of those games. They have 4 wins this year vs Jacksonville (twice), Detroit, and New England who are all below .500 and have a combined record of 10-23. Indy is now sitting at 7-4 and 1-game behind Tennessee so a must win here. Indy’s offense has scored 30+ in 4 of their last 6 games and should put up plenty of points vs a bad Houston defense. The Colts are the better team and they are 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 trips to Houston. Lay the FG here. |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -12.5 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -12.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Wisconsin -11 and that was before IU knew their starting QB Penix was out for the season. Once that was announced this line jumped to -14 and we don’t think it’s enough. Penix is worth much more than 3 points to this team. He was a huge reason their offense was able to top 30 points in 4 of their first 6 games. He led the Big 10 in passing yards and has accounted for 16 of IU’s 24 TD’s this season. The best 2 teams IU played this season were PSU which they beat on OT 36-35 despite getting outgained by almost 300 yards. Then their game @ OSU was on the way to being a blowout with the Buckeyes up 35-7 when Penix went wild and threw for almost 500 yards and 5 TD’s to bring the Hoosiers back in that game. Without Penix, we have no doubt they lose vs PSU (who now has only 1 win on the season) and they get destroyed by OSU. What makes him even more important to this offense is the fact that Indiana can’t run the ball. They put up good numbers on the ground last week vs Maryland, who ranks 116th in rush defense, but prior to that they were averaging 73 YPG on the ground. That puts huge pressure on the QB to make plays and Penix was up to the task. Now they start Jack Tuttle who has 16 career pass attempts. On top of that they face a Wisconsin defense that is outstanding. The Badgers rank #1 nationally in total defense, #3 in rush defense, and #3 in pass defense. IU will not be able to run the ball in this game. Tuttle will have to have the game of his life to keep the Hoosiers in this one. We don’t see that happening. Wisconsin is fresh for this one. They had last week’s game vs Minnesota cancelled. HC Chryst mentioned his team was able to heal up with the week off after their loss @ Northwestern. In that game Wisconsin lost 17-7 but their were +5 first downs, +103 total yards, +112 rushing yards, and +15 minute time of possession. Problem is they had 5 turnovers which is unlike a Wisconsin team. They also played that game with both starting WR’s out and they were down to playing a freshman and 2 senior walk ons. Because of that, QB Mertz was out of synch with his receivers from the beginning and tried to force a few things which led to turnovers. The Badger defense held Northwestern to just 3.4 YPP in that loss and the Cats rushed the ball 23 times for 24 yards. Again, IU will not have success on the ground in this game. With the Badgers coming off a disappointing loss, with extra time to prepare, getting healthy (WR Davis is the only question mark on offense), and facing a team with an inexperienced QB we love this situation. On top of that, while the Badgers are rested and healthy, this will be Indiana’s 7th straight week without a break. We don’t think Wisconsin will have to score much to cover this number. With the total set at 45.5, the projected score is right around 30-16. We think the Badger offense gets rolling here and scores at least that while we would not be at all surprised if Indiana scores less than 14 points. Wisconsin has won 10 straight in this series and we think they take another here by more than 2 TD’s. |
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11-29-20 | Saints -6 v. Broncos | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -6 over Denver, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Looking at this number we can compare it to the Miami/Denver game last week and we see the value with the Saints. Last week a pretender the Miami Dolphins were just favored in Denver by 4 and now the Saints who might be the 2nd best team in the NFL are only -6.5. Last week we felt the Broncos would be able to run on a Dolphins defense that is not good against the rush and they did it with 189yds. But Denver won't run here against the #1 ranked rushing D in the NFL allowing just 74RYPG and that puts the pressure on QB Drew Lock - who 2 weeks ago threw 4 INTS. On the season Lock has 7 TD’s and 11 INT’s. New Orleans defense has 11 INT's this season tied for 4th most and could feast on Lock and the Broncos offense. In fact, the Saints produced 8 sacks last week vs. Atlanta and are 4th in the NFL at 3.2 sacks per game. Just how dominant was the Saints defense last week against the Falcons? New Orleans just held Atlanta to 14 first downs and 52 rushing yards. Saints QB Taysum Hill answered a lot of questions last week with his performance by going 18/23 passing with 233 yards NO INT’s. He’s also a duel threat under center with 51 yards rushing and 2 TD’s. Consider this, last week the Saints averaged 6.8 Yards Per Play a FULL YARD more than their season average with Drew Brees. The Saints also average 10 Yards per pass attempt against the Falcons which is significantly better than their season average of 7.4YPPA. Denver leans on a defense that is 9th in overall defensive efficiency but that typical advantage gets nullified here against a Saints offense that is clicking. The Saints have averaged 30PPG on: Tampa (2nd DEFF), San Francisco (10th DEFF) and Chicago (4th DEFF). Just looking at raw data, New Orleans has a huge advantage offensively with the 5th most efficient offense compared to Denver who is last. New Orleans has the 3rd best Margin of Victory this season at +7.3PPG / Denver loss margin -6.1PPG 28th in NFL. We like the Saints laying under a TD here. |
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11-28-20 | Rutgers v. Purdue -11 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
#194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Rutgers, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We love this situation for the Boilers. They have lost 2 straight vs Northwestern & Minnesota so this is a very important home game for them. Last week’s loss @ Minnesota was the infamous invisible offensive pass interference game. Purdue scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining that seemingly gave them the win. However, a terrible offensive pass interference was called taking away the TD and Purdue threw an interception on the next play in their 34-31 loss. That game was on Friday which gave them an extra day to get ready for this must win game. The Boilermakers outgained Minnesota by 100 yards in the game & had 8 more first downs in the loss. We really liked what we saw from QB Plummer as he threw for 367 yards and 3 TD’s. He was replacing O’Connell who was the starter (out with injury) however we don’t consider Plummer a back up. He started 7 games a year ago and was in a neck & neck battle with O’Connell for this year’s starting job. We expect another big game from him vs a leaky Rutgers pass defense that ranks 95th nationally allowing 265 YPG through the air. Another huge addition for Purdue last week was WR Moore who was back in the line up for the first time this year. He is their best offensive weapon and accounted for 136 total yards last week. Purdue’s offense will put plenty of points on the board here vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed 37 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Rutgers had a crushing home defeat last week. They faced a Michigan team that obviously is not nearly as good as they’ve been in the past, but they still have the name recognition so it was a huge game for Rutgers. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, then went down 35-27 late in the game, had to score a TD + 2 point conversion with under 1:00 minute remaining to send the game to OT. On top of that, the Scarlet Knights then missed a FG in OT that would have given them the win and they wound up losing in 3 OT’s. Now they have to go on the road and we just don’t see them playing well here after last week’s situation. Plus, while they are improved, they still only have 1 win vs Michigan State (Sparty turned the ball over 7 times in that game) and they’ve been outgained in every game. Even with their improvement, this Rutgers team ranks 91st nationally in total offense and 92nd in total defense. This is a bad match up for them vs a Purdue team that is now at full strength on offense and is flying under the radar right now. Rutgers has been a terrible road team with a 2-19 SU record their last 21 away from home and 17 of those losses have come by double digits. We also like the line value here. We have Purdue as 14 point favorite in our power ratings. Last week Michigan was favored by this same number (-11) @ Rutgers and Purdue is better than Michigan this yet only laying -11 here. Take the Boilermakers as this game has blowout potential. |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State Cyclones (+) over Texas Longhorns, Friday at 12:00 PM ET - Texas has covered 4 straight games in this series and the Longhorns are at home here and very little separates these teams in the rankings and yet the line is a pick'em! This is even though the last time these teams met in Austin (just two years ago), UT won the game by two touchdowns and won the yardage battle by nearly 200 yards. That was then, this is now, and the Cyclones are positioned well here. Iowa State has won 6 of their last 7 games and the only loss in that stretch was a tight 24-21 defeat. The Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas team playing for the first time in 3 weeks. A scheduled bye week for the Longhorns was followed by a postponement last week as UT's game versus Kansas was pushed back to the end of the season. A break is good but not when it is too much of a break. Remember that the Longhorns also did not have a game in mid-October either. That means this game, near the very end of November, was preceded by just 3 games for UT since the 11th of October! The Longhorns were a favorite in this game when the line first popped up and though the line is moving toward a pick'em, it is worth mentioning that the Horns have a strong tendency to not perform as well at home under coach Herman. In fact, the Longhorns have covered only 3 of their last 13 as a home favorite! Iowa State has plenty of confidence entering this game as they have exploded for an average of 45 points per game during their current 3-game winning streak. QB Brock Purdy and the Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas pass defense allowing over 300 passing yards per game in its last 4 games. Though the Horns run defense has been solid, Iowa State running back Breece Hall is leading the nation in rushing with nearly 1,200 yards on the ground plus he has run for 15 touchdowns already this season. Hall is a big reason the Cyclones offensive attack is so balanced and they will give the UT defense trouble in this one. As for the Iowa State defense, they have held their last 5 opponents to an average of only 297 yards per game. Texas has been the SU winner in 7 of the last 8 meetings in Austin but there is a reason the line on this game is set the way it is. Though Iowa State did win against the Longhorns last season, they certainly have been reminded of how their last visit to Austin played out. Per our computer math model, all signs point to the Cyclones getting some payback here for an ugly performance in their most recent visit to UT. This one is set up for a big road win and Iowa State is the play here. |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars +10.5 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +10.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Talk about a ho-hum type game for the Steelers. They are coming off a division game vs the Bengals and they have a huge rematch on deck vs Baltimore. Not only do they play their arch rival Ravens next, it’s on Thanksgiving Day just 4 days away. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Pittsburgh was flat as a pancake in this game. Pittsburgh has a history of playing to the level of their competition. This year alone they went to the wire with the Broncos, Cowboys, and Texans. Just a few weeks ago they went to Dallas as a big favorite, got outgained, and never led until 2:00 minutes to go in the game (Pitt win 24-19). Speaking of playing to the level of competition, the Steelers are now 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been favored by 10 or more. Dating back to 1980, they are just 25-40 ATS as a double digit favorite (38%). Pitt is really struggling to run the ball as of late which we like to see if fading a big favorite. Over their last 3 games they’ve run for 48, 46, and 44 yards. That’s it. And 2 of those games came against Dallas & Cincinnati who rank 31st and 27th respectively defending the run. Despite their record Jacksonville is showing some fight. Last week they’ve gave a very good Green Bay team all they could handle at Lambeau in a 24-20 loss. The Jags, unlike the Steelers, have started to run the ball very well outrushing each of their last 3 opponents. During that stretch they rushed for 140, 115, and 109 yards vs Chargers, Texans, and Packers. New starting QB Luton has looked solid in his 2 starts taking both Houston and GB to the wire in tight losses (473 yards passing). Defensively they’ve also improved as of late. After allowing 30 or more points in 6 straight games, they’ve held Houston and Green Bay, 2 of the top 10 offenses on a YPP basis, to 27 & 24 points. Jacksonville is still putting forth solid effort. Pittsburgh is in a tough spot playing their fourth road game in five weeks. We like the Jags to hang around in this game and cover the big number. |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force -7 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Air Force Falcons (-) over New Mexico Lobos, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This line opened up at double digits and, as of Thursday afternoon, is down to a -7 on the Falcons. We like the line value here with a move that we fully understand here but absolutely disagree with. Part of the reason for the move is Rocky Long is the defensive coordinator for New Mexico and he has, in his pedigree, a history of stopping option teams. However, he doesn't have the personnel this season to do it. Three of the key components to properly stopping an option attack are game-planning, talent, and execution. Long can game-plan all he wants but he still has to have the proper personnel and disciplined players to go out and execute and this is a bad Lobos defense. So far this season they have not given up much on the ground but that's simply because teams know they can throw all over them. In other words it does not necessarily mean that New Mexico is built to stop the run, it just means that when a team is allowing 410.3 passing yards per game why not throw against them? That is the type of defense we're talking about here...a very bad one! The Lobos have lost all 3 of their games this season and each of the last two seasons they were beaten badly in their match-ups with Air Force. The Falcons won those games by an average margin of 20 points per game. Also, AF averaged 345.5 yards per game on the ground and 236 yards through the air. The Falcons enter this game off back to back losses but had over 400 yards rushing in their most recent game and that was against a tough Boise State team! Now Air Force enters well-rested as they have had some covid issues result in postponements in recent weeks. They will be ready to go here and just like in their season opener against Navy (we had the Falcons in that blowout win of 40-7) when everyone doubts Air Force they seem to be at their best. Look for them to take advantage of a Lobos offense likely to again be without QB Tevaka Tuioti (doubtful - concussion) and that means we likely again see Trae Hall under center. Hall has a 0-2 TD-INT ratio this season and has been sacked 4 times in just about 40 dropbacks to pass plus he has not had success running the ball. He also completes only about 50% of his passes. On the other side of the ball, again Long just doesn't have the guys to be a successful defense. This team lost nearly every starter from last year's defense and they are especially thin up front. New Mexico has been playing their games in, and practicing in, Vegas due to covid issues in New Mexico. Air Force has been at home and hungry to get back on the field after the Falcons lost at home against Boise State 3 weeks ago. The Falcons have extra rest while the Lobos are playing a 4th straight week and the AF ground game will eventually wear them down. The Falcons roll in this one. This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the points with Air Force. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -3 over Arizona - Value is on Seattle here. They are favored by 3 in this game which is the same number they were favored @ Arizona just a few weeks ago. Zona won that game 37-34 in OT but Seattle outgained the Cards and led by 10 with just 3:00 minutes remaining. Seahawks have lost 2 in a row which is why this number is low. Those losses were @ Buffalo (Seattle had 4 turnovers) and @ LA Rams who were coming off a bye. They are still undefeated at home this year. Arizona hasn’t been on the road since October 19th. They are coming off a 3 game home stand where all 3 went to the wire (Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo). Last week they pulled a miracle win over the Bills on a hail mary as time expired. Arizona is just 2-2 on the road despite playing one of the easier road slates in the NFL (Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, and Niners) who combined for a 9-29 overall record. Arizona’s defensive line is banged up with only 3 healthy players and Seattle gets RB Hyde back from injury here. The Seahawks rushed for 200 yards in the first meeting and they should have success on the ground here which opens things up for QB Wilson. Speaking of Wilson, he has NEVER lost 3 games in a row since coming to Seattle. We don’t think he will here. If he can limit turnovers tonight (Seattle had 3 in the first meeting) we like the home team to cover. |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +1.5 | Top | 52-44 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #314 |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - This line opened with the Bears favored by -1.5 and has swung a full 4 points to Minnesota -3.5. Too much in our opinion and the Vikings don’t justify laying more than 3 in this game. Sure the Vikes are 2-0 since their bye week beating Green Bay and Detroit, but they were +6 @ GB and just -3 at home vs Detroit. Now they are laying more than that @ Chicago? Bad line. Minnesota was able to run the ball at will vs those 2 defenses which rank 23rd and 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed. Now they face a top 10 rush defense with Chicago allowing just 4.1 YPC. Last week the Bears faced a Tennessee offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing and held them to just 92 yards on the ground on 3.0 YPC. Derrick Henry had just 68 yards on 21 attempts. The Bears lost that game but actually outplayed the Titans on the road with a +11 first down edge and +147 total yardage edge. If Chicago can slow down Dalvin Cook that places the pressure on QB Cousins to win the game. We know how that goes as he is known for not stepping up in big moments and is 0-9 SU on Monday night football. The Vikings offense has looked good but they’ve played mainly average to poor defenses. In fact, 7 of their 8 opponents rank 19th or lower in YPP defense this season. The one top 10 defense they played this year was Indy and the Vikings scored only 11 points in that game. Chicago will be the best defense they’ve faced since that game which was back on September 20th. The Bears offense looked much better last week putting up 375 yards on Tennessee. Tonight they face a Minnesota defense that ranks a few spots below Tennessee when it comes to YPP defense (25th overall) and we expect Chicago to do enough on offense to have a great shot to win this game outright. The Bears are 4-0 SU vs the Vikings since Matt Nagy took over as HC and we give them a great shot at making that 5-0 tonight. If not, we expect a very close game and getting over a FG at home with the much better defense is our pick. Take the Bears. |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-32 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Buffalo picked up a huge home win last week over Seattle 44-34. However, the yardage was about dead even for the game but Seattle had 4 TO’s and Buffalo scored points after each one of those turnovers. Prior to last week, the Buffalo offense had not been playing well at all. In their previous 4 games they had scored 16, 17, 18 and 24 points. Their offense looked much better last week but they were playing the last ranked defense in the NFL (Seattle) along with the 4 TO’s which put the offense in a number of good field position situations. The Buffalo defense continued to struggle giving up 6.7 YPP. This defense is not even close to the same level as last year’s that allowed a full 1.0 YPP less. Big win and now on the road will be tough for Buffalo who hasn’t played on the road since beating the hapless Jets 18-10 on October 25. Arizona is playing their third straight home game and coming off a loss. They should have some extra motivation off that loss and the fact that they play 3 of their next 4 on the road. This is a big game for Arizona. Last week they lost 34-31 vs Miami despite outgaining the Fins by 130 yards and +1.3 YPP. The Cards come into this one ranking #1 in the NFL in total offense and #2 in rushing. That’s going to be a problem for a Buffalo defense that has struggled to stop the run this year allowing 125 YPG. Despite their records (Arizona is 5-3 / Buffalo is 7-2) the Cards own the better point differential (+54 to +9) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). Arizona QB Murray has a big day vs the Buffalo defense and the Cards get the home cover. |
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11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#192 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON San Diego State Aztecs (-) over Hawaii Warriors, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - Situations don't get much better than this. The Aztecs just lost at home by a double digit margin even though they were a double digit favorite versus San Jose State! Undoubtedly, there will be extra focus from San Diego State this week at home after what happened right here last week. Not only that, after beating the Warriors 6 straight times both SU and ATS in MWC action, Hawaii has beaten the Aztecs each of the past two seasons including once as a huge underdog. So this is a double revenge spot for San Diego State and they are catching the Warriors at the perfect time to exact that revenge. Hawaii is off of a home win over New Mexico but they allowed 33 points to the Lobos and NM is not only one of the worst teams in the MAC but one of the worst in the nation for FBS programs! The Warriors now are on the road again - for the 3rd time in 4 weeks! - while the Aztecs are back home for a 2nd straight week. The scheduling edge and situational edge here both are huge factors. Additionally, Hawaii has allowed an average of 32 points per game their past two games and allowed 31.9 points per game last season. San Diego State allowed only 12.7 points per game last season and, before getting upset by the Spartans and allowing 28 points last week, the Aztecs allowed 7 points or less in EACH of their first two games. Huge defensive edge to the home team in this one including allowing just 233 yards per game this season while the Warriors are allowing 433 yards per game! The Aztecs also are outgaining Hawaii on the offensive side (452 to 429) and, per our computer math model, San Diego State pulls away as this one goes on. This one has all the right ingredients for a blowout home win and we're laying the points with San Diego State |
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11-13-20 | Iowa -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 7:00 PM ET Iowa picked up their first win of the season last Saturday but they are much better than a 1-2 team. They’ve actually outgained all 3 of their opponents and they are +1.1 YPP differential on the season which is very solid. They’ve led all 3 games in the 4th quarter as well. The Hawks finally put it all together last week in a dominating 49-7 win over Michigan State. The defense, which has played very well this season, held MSU to just 10 first downs and only 59 yards rushing (Iowa had 226 yards on the ground). That defense is getting 2 key players back this week including starting LB Campbell who will now split time at the position helping their depth. Minnesota’s defense played much better last week but we’re not falling for it. The first 2 games they were terrible allowing 94 points on more than 9.0 YPP. So why did they look so much better last week? They played an Illinois team that has had a number of key players out with Covid and their QB position is in disarray as they were down to their 4th string QB Taylor who only completed 6 passes the entire game. This defense still stinks and even with last week’s performance they are allowing 8.2 YPP which is the worst in college football. They have the same 1-2 record as Iowa but the Gophers YPP differential is -2.0 which is a full 3 yard difference PER PLAY when compared to Iowa’s YPP differential numbers which we discussed earlier. The Gophers leaned heavy on their running game last week with 325 yards vs a terrible Illinois defense but they won’t get that luxury this week facing a Hawkeye defense that is allowing just 2.6 YPC this season. On the flip side, Iowa ran the ball very well last week and should continue vs a Minnesota defense that allows 7.3 YPC. This should keep the Iowa offense very balanced in this game which is bad news for an already terrible Gopher defense. On the other side this will be the best defense that Minnesota has faced this season. They’ve faced 2 terrible stop units (Maryland & Illinois) and a Michigan defense that has proven to be not so good thus far. The defensive difference in this game is enormous so we’re siding with Iowa to win and cover on the road. |
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11-12-20 | Colts +2 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +2 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Colts coming off a loss with Tennessee coming off a win. We also like the fact that Indy outplayed the Ravens last week on the stat sheet while the Titans actually were outplayed by the Bears. Indy went from a 4-point dog at last week’s open vs Baltimore to a 1-point favorite near game time. They outgained the Ravens by a full +1.0 YPP in the game but had 2 turnovers which led directly to 14 of Baltimore’s 24 points. The biggest play of the game came late in the first quarter with Indianapolis already up 7-0 moving inside Baltimore’s 40 yard line looking to go up 2 scores. The Colts fumbled and it was returned 65 yards for the Ravens first TD to tie the game at 7-7. A potential 14-point turnaround on that play alone. Tennessee was favored by 6.5 at home vs Chicago and picked up a 24-17 win. The Bears outgained Tennessee by +1.0 YPP in the game despite the loss. The Tennessee defense, which ranks 25th in total defense allowed the below average Bears to roll up 375 yards. That’s a Chicago offense that had topped 280 yards only once in their previous 5 games. And the Titans weren’t playing particularly well entering the game having lost to the Steelers & Bengals in their previous 2 games. Tennessee could be sitting on a 3 game losing streak but got a little lucky last week. The Colts are 3-1 on the road this year and they own the #1 ranked total defense in the NFL. So we have a motivated team, getting points, with the much better defense. The Colts have also owned this AFC South series covering 13 of the last 17 meetings. Indy is the play on Thursday night. |
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11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois +8 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Northern Illinois Huskies (+) over Central Michigan Chippewas, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Central Michigan is off a tight win at home but they were helped by a pair of Ohio University turnovers. Also, the Bobcats simply aren't on the level with the Buffalo team that Northern Illinois had to face last week. In fact, heading into the season many had Buffalo pegged as the best team in the MAC this season. That said, even though the Huskies lost ugly on the scoreboard against the Bulls there are a couple of important factors to note. One is that it was a big-time revenge game for Buffalo. Another is that Northern Illinois was done in by turnovers in that game as too many fumbles were the difference in that one. In fact the Huskies actually outgained the Bulls and had 26 first downs compared to just 14 for Buffalo. Now Northern Illinois is in the 2nd of back to back home games and will certainly take better care of the ball in this one. Central Michigan is being over-valued as this line opened up at a 6 but has moved up past the -7 mark as of Tuesday evening. The Chippewas are getting too much respect here. Even if QB David Moore returned from his suspension for this one it would be his first live game action in a full year. If Central Michigan is again without Moore, most likely, it will be a redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson making his first ever road start at QB. This will be much tougher on Richardson in comparison with playing at home last week. The Huskies also have revenge on their minds here as they got blasted at Central Michigan last season. The last time the Chippewas visited Northern Illinois the Chips lost by a 24-16 margin. Per our computer math model this game has high probability that it will be a game decided by a single possession which means great value with the Huskies available in the +7.5 range for this one. This one has potential for a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Northern Illinois |
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11-07-20 | Oklahoma State -12 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
#375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State. |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +13 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel the Giants are in a great situational spot here with 10 days to rest & prepare off their Thursday night game. Tampa made the long trip to Las Vegas last Sunday and they are on the road again this week. Great value as well on the home team here as this spread opened Bucs -8.5 or -9, which is where we have it power rated, and it’s been pushed all the way to -13 as Tampa is now officially a public team. This number is more than double Tampa’s highest road number this year – they were favored by 6 @ Denver, at team we have rated very closely to the Giants. While NY has a poor overall record, they’ve been competitive for the most part. All but 1 of their games has been decided by 10 points or less with 4 of those games being decided by 4 points or less. The Giants have been able to hang in most of their games due to a solid yet underrated defense. They rank in the top 13 in the NFL in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed. They’ve given up 26 points or less in 5 of their games and when your getting nearly 2 TD’s that significant. Offensively they’ve started to come around after not topping 16 in any of their first 4 games the Giants have put up 34, 20, and 21 points their last 3. Tampa has a HUGE game with AFC South rival New Orleans next Sunday and we expect the Giants to give them a good run in this one. Take the points. |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago +4.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not huge proponents of Chicago this year as their offense has struggled, but this line in flat out wrong in our opinion. The Bears are getting almost a TD (5 points as of this writing) vs a team we feel is drastically overvalued. For comparison’s sake, the Saints were favored by 3 @ Detroit and by 4 @ Las Vegas in their 2 road games this year. They lost by 10 @ Vegas and had to hold on late to beat the Lions 35-29. Now they are laying more than that to a Bears team that is 5-2? The Saints simply aren’t that great this year. They have 4 wins and 3 of those have come by 6 points or less. Last week they held on at home to beat the Panthers 27-24 but Carolina outgained them on a YPP basis. New Orleans ran 24 more offensive plays in that game and were only able to win by 3 game home vs Carolina. The same Panther team the Bears beat on the road by 7 a week earlier. Prior to their Carolina win, the Saints had to come from 17 points down at home to nip the Chargers in OT. Bears might be without WR Robinson in this game (questionable) however New Orleans will be without their top 3 WR’s here as Thomas, Sanders, and Callaway have all been ruled out. The Saints haven’t been on the road since October 4th and they have played a single game outdoors this season. New Orleans is an indoor, fast track team. On Sunday they are going to get 25 MPH winds and temps in the 30’s (windchill in the 20’s) at Soldier Field facing one of the top defenses in the NFL. We get it, Chicago looked bad on Monday night and their offense has struggled. However, this is simply too much value on the home team to pass up in this spot. Chicago bounces back after a poor performance, their offense looks better, and their defense continues their stellar play on Sunday. This one goes to the wire and we grab the points with Chicago. |
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10-31-20 | Ole Miss -17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 54-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185 |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -6 over the Chicago Bears, Monday 8:25 PM ET - Let’s compare how these two teams currently sit in their scheduling situation. The 5-1 Bears are off a misleading win in Carolina, while the 4-2 Rams are off a Divisional loss to the 49ers. Chicago didn’t play great in Carolina with QB Nick Foles throwing for under 200 yards and the offense gaining less than 260 on the day. The Bears were outgained in the game 4.9 yards per play to 4.1YPPL but Carolina had 3 turnovers. Chicago’s offense has been brutal this year ranking 28th in yards per play offense and 27th in scoring. Against the good defenses they’ve faced (Indy, TBay and Carolina) they have averaged less than 270-total yards of offense. The Bears will face a great Rams defense tonight that is 4th in yards per game allowed and 5th in scoring D allowing just 19PPG. Los Angeles lost in San Francisco last week which doesn’t look as bad as it was now that the 49ers are getting healthy and destroyed New England on the road yesterday. The Rams are 11-4 SU their last fifteen when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of 7.6PPG which clearly gets us a cover here. Yes, these defenses are near even but the Rams have the 10th best offense in yards gained per game and have won 39 of their last 58 at home since 2017. Their average margin of victory in those games is +6PPG. Bears QB Nick Foles is best when he’s comfortable in the pocket and not pressured but that won’t be the case tonight against this Rams defense led by DE Aaron Donald. As long as this line is under a TD we will side with the Rams. |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
#467 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Seattle -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Arizona looks like they are rolling going 2-1 on their 3 game road trip. Not so fast. Their wins on that road trip were the winless Jets and struggling Cowboys (without Prescott at QB). Minus their win over San Francisco in the season opener where they were outgained 6.0 to 5.2 YPP, Arizona’s win shave come against teams with a combined record of 3-15 with Washington being their other win besides the two mentioned above. While the Cards on a short week after winning @ Dallas on Monday, they get to face a rested 5-0 (4-1 ATS) Seattle team coming off a bye week. This will be Seattle’s 3rd road game of the season and their first 2 were 8 & 27 point wins. That puts Seattle at 2-0 ATS on the road this year and 13-3-2 ATS their last 18 games away from home. QB Russell Wilson is 72-54-7 ATS in his career in the regular season. Road team 9-1-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Seattle has owned the Cards on the road where they are 6-0-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) their last 7 trips here including a 27-10 here last season. The Seahawks average margin of victory over that 7 game span was +14 points. We’ll take the better team in the better situation here. Lay it with Seattle. |
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10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
#318 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh +10 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In our opinion, Notre Dame is vastly overvalued at this point of the season due to their perfect 4-0 record. However, they haven’t beaten a single team that currently has a winning record and the combined record of the 4 teams they’ve played is 5-16. Last week they played host to Louisville, who in our power ratings is the best team the Irish have faced, and ND escaped with a 12-7 win. The Irish were held to just 4.9 YPP vs a Louisville team that ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (out of 77). The Notre Dame offense struggled with the Cards last week and now face, by far, the best defense they’ve seen this year as Pitt ranks 7th nationally in total defense. On top of that, ND relies heavily on their running game averaging 45 carries per game (12th most in the country) and Pitt’s defense ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing only 61 YPG. The Panthers are much better than their 3-3 record. They’ve lost 3 straight games by a combined 14 points. Last week they played @ Miami and lost 31-19 but the yardage was close (Pitt outgained by 30 yards) and the defense played very well holding a potent Cane offense to just 331 total yards. Miami did score 31 points but 3 of their TD drives started on Pittsburgh’s half of the field due to turnovers and the Panthers getting shut out on downs. They might be without starting QB Pickett again this week (although he has not been ruled out) but his backup Yellen got his feet wet last week throwing for 277 yards vs Miami. We have Pitt rated about dead even with Louisville so this will be the best team the Irish have played (along with the Cards) AND their first road game of the season. These two programs have faced off 12 times since 2002 with the margin of victory being 8 or less in 10 of those games. Pitt will give Notre Dame all they can handle here and we grab the generous points siding with the home dog. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia -4.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Watching the Eagles their last 2 games, it looks to us like Philly is starting to round into form despite their 1-4-1 record. The last 2 Sundays they’ve stood toe to toe with 2 of the best teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh & Baltimore. They outgained the Steelers on a yards per play basis and trailed by just 2 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining (lost 38-29). Last week they came from behind and had a chance to tie Baltimore with under 2:00 minutes remaining but the Eagles 2-point conversion was not successful and they lost 30-28. They also outgained the Ravens on a YPP basis in that game. This offense has turned the corner scoring 28 & 29 points vs 2 of the top defenses in the NFL the last 2 weeks. The defense already ranks in the top 10 in YPP allowed and we have a feeling this team is close to turning the corner. The Giants won last week vs Washington to pick up their first win of the season, but they didn’t look great doing it. Washington actually had nearly 100 more total yards, more first downs, and a time of possession edge in the game. NY’s offense has been flat out bad all season, with the exception of their game @ Dallas and we all know how bad the Cowboy defense is right now. If you throw that game out the window, the Giants have scored a grand total of 7 TD’s in their other 5 games. That’s it. The defense is very solid but when you have an offense that only scores 13 PPG (again, minus the Cowboy game) that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. With the way Philly has put points on the board the last few weeks, we think they’ll have success here. We can’t say the same for the NYG offense. Philly was laying almost double digits here vs New York last year (-9.5) and now were getting them at just -4.5. Lay it was we expect the Eagles to win by at least a TD. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +1.5 over Arizona, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This is an overreaction to the Dak Prescott injury along with the Cowboy struggles to date. The Cardinals should not be favored in this match up. First of all, it Arizona’s 3rd straight road game so a tough spot for them. The were smoked at Carolina two weeks ago and then beat the terrible Jets in New York last week. They’ve also lost to the Lions this year which gave Detroit their only win of the season. This is not a team that should be laying points on the road unless they are playing the Jets. Dallas lost Prescott in the 2nd half last week and veteran Andy Dalton, possibly the best back up on the league, came in and led the Cowboys to 13 points in his 5 possessions as they rallied to top the Giants. Dalton is simply not a huge drop off from Prescott. They guy has almost 32,000 passing yards and over 200 TD’s in his career. He is not a full 4 points drop off from Dak as this line was Dallas -3 leading into last week and now they are underdogs. We anticipate the Cowboys rally behind Dalton and play well in their first full game without Dak at QB. Two of Arizona’s wins came over Washington and the Jets who are 1-9 combined. Their other win was in the season opener over the Niners in a game that looked like a great win but in hindsight with San Fran’s struggles it wasn’t look all that impressive. The Boys have just a 2-3 record but their 3 losses have come at the hands of Seattle, LA Rams, and Cleveland who have a combined 13-2 record. Cowboys may get some key players back defensively including their starting MLB Vander Esch. Offensively they rank #1 in the NFL in YPG and 3rd in YPP and we expect them to continue to roll with Dalton at QB. We’ll take advantage of this bad line and take Dallas at home. |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #170 |
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10-12-20 | Chargers +8 v. Saints | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Chargers +8 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re still not sold on this Saints team being one of the best in the NFL. Especially with their current injury concerns at WR, DB, and on the offensive line. Their wins have come against Tampa, where they were outgained but benefitted from 3 Buc turnovers including a pick 6, and Detroit. Their game last week @ Detroit they fell down 14-0, came back to take a lead and barely held on 35-29. Offensively the Saints were only able to put up 5.7 YPP last week vs a Detroit defense that has allowed 6.2 YPP this season. We think, because they have a 1-3 record, the Chargers are a bit undervalued right now. They’ve lost 3 straight games that have gone to the wire. They played KC as tough as anyone over the last year as they led the entire game but lost in OT. Last week they led Tampa on the road 24-7 but Brady pulled his comeback magic and rallied the Bucs for a win. Starting QB Herbert has been very impressive to date with a completion rate of 72% while averaging over 300 YPG passing. The Bolts have held leads in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 4 games this year and their defense has been solid holding 3 of their 4 opponents to 23 points or less including limiting KC to 20 points in regulation. This is a tough team to pull away from and we expect a tight game. The Chargers are a money making 12-4-3 ATS their last 19 non-division road games under head coach Anthony Lynn. The Saints have covered just 4 of their last 14 games as a home favorite. Undervalued vs Overvalued here. Take the points. |
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10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Auburn -13.5 over Arkansas, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Well Arkansas finally did it. They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog. A couple of quick points about that game. First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point! Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet. The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275. The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers. The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead. Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line. The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury. Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened. Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team. That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week. They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset. Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers. After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases. We got outcoached.” We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week. You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible. We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned. He’ll be motivated as well. This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week. Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later. In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday. The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense. Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6. If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year. We love the value here as well. We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5. We could argue it should be even higher. These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road. Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field. The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH. We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Atlanta Falcons +7 over Green Bay Packers, Monday 8:50PM ET We understand you are going to have a hard time betting against the 3-0 Packers and betting on 0-3 Atlanta but that’s why they make pointspreads. The Packers have played nearly flawless offense in their start to the season which cannot last forever based on the Law of Averages. Atlanta has blown two 15+ point leads in their last two games (in the 4th quarter) and lost both games to fall to 0-3. Are the Packers and Falcons as good/bad as their records? No, we do not think so. If we turned back the clock and it was week 1 this line might be Packers favored by 4-points at best, so value clearly lies with Atlanta. The Packers were 7-point favorites at home against the Lions who are not as good as this Falcons team. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been incredible, but the Falcons O is not far behind. The Packers average 460YPG, Atlanta 419YPG, Green Bay 40.7PP and Atlanta 30PPG. Atlanta has allowed 36PPG (most coming late in games) which is 31st in the NFL but the Packers are not much better allowing 28.3PPG and 6.6 yards per play which is 31st in the league. Atlanta has veteran-laden team with a particularly good road record and 5 straight covers away from home. The Falcons are 8-9 ATS their last seventeen as a dog but their loss margin is just minus -3.4PPG. Conversely, the Packers are 13-10 their last twenty-three as a favorite with a win margin of +4.6PPG. Those two differentials are obviously enough for an Atlanta Falcons cover. Grab the points. |
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10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
#260 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas -4.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a huge game for the Cowboys. They cannot afford to drop to 1-3. They’ve faced a fairly tough slate having to go on the road to LA Rams and Seattle while facing Atlanta at home whose much better than their 0-3 record. Last week they led Seattle on the road 31-30 with under 2:00 remaining when Russell Wilson pulled more of his magic to pick up a win. Dallas outgained Seattle by over 100 yards in that game and averaged 6.5 YPP in the process. A week prior they outgained the potent Atlanta offense by nearly 200 yards despite having to come from behind to win that one. The Boys have a +0.8 YPP differential which is not indicative of a team that currently has a losing record. Meanwhile Cleveland is off 2 home wins and could step into this one a bit fat and happy as we like to say. However, those wins came at the hands of 2 of the worst teams in the NFL, Cincinnati and Washington and neither were all that easy. They held on to beat Cincinnati 35-30 and last week vs Washington they Browns trailed entering the 4th quarter before scoring 3 straight TD’s to pull away. Cleveland is now 0-7 both SU & ATS their last 7 road games losing by an average of 18 PPG. Going back even further, since November of 2014 the Browns are just 5-39 SU on the road and 17-27 ATS in those games. This is a much bigger game for Dallas and we’ll lay the points. |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
#123 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma -7 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We are well aware that recent meetings between these teams have been close games. However, this line was in the double digit range and has dropped to a -7 and we feel we have exceptional line value here with Oklahoma primed for a blowout win. Last season's match-up between these teams was decided by a single point but the Sooners led that game 42-21 late and they won't make the same mistake this season. Yes, the Sooners are off an upset loss to Kansas State but OU had a 4-0 turnover deficit in the game. The Sooners actually had 28 first downs compared to only 10 for the Wildcats and yet they lost the game outright. This is helping to give us great line value this week with Oklahoma. The Sooners piled up 517 yards of offense in that game and now take on an Iowa State team that just allowed 499 yards at TCU last week. The Cyclones tight win over the Horned Frogs had a lot to do with a 2-1 turnover edge and the Frogs had 10 penalties compared to just 3 for Iowa State. The Cyclones also lost their season opener to UL Lafayette by 17 points. In that game they barely eclipsed the 300 yard mark in terms of total offense. The fact is that highly regarded Cyclones QB Brock Purdy hasn't been overly impressive so far this season as his completion percentage is down from the 2 prior seasons and he has thrown for an average of just 178 yards per game. Keep in mind last season Purdy threw for nearly 4,000 yards. The Cyclones simply won't be able to score enough here to keep up with an angry Sooners team that has a dangerous offensive attack and won't be able to be stopped in this one. Lay it! This will be a road rout for Oklahoma |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
#485 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’ve seen some solid line value with these week 3 games and this one is no exception. Our power rating have Dallas as a 3-point dog here so we’re getting at least a few extra points. The look ahead line on this game was Seattle -3 and -3.5 last week. Everyone watched Seattle beat New England on Sunday Night (barely) while Dallas was struggling at home vs Atlanta and came out with a miraculous win. That’s why 70% of the tickets have come in on Seattle here. The Seahawks are 2-0 but were outgained in both games including getting outyarded 506 to 383 in their season opening win @ Atlanta. The Falcons made a number of mistakes to allow Seattle to win that game and Russell Wilson was almost perfect with just 4 incomplete passes. Last week they held New England just short of the goal line as time expired to pick up a 35-30 win. Now Seattle is a bit overvalued. Dallas has played 2 down to the wire games losing @ LA Rams by 3 and winning last week by 1. We expect another very close game here and getting the Cowboys above +4 is great value. The Boys still have one of the top offenses in the NFL with weapons all over the field. After leading the NFL in YPP last year, they are currently 5th this season at 6.3 YPP. They will be able to move the ball and put points on the board here vs a Seattle defense that has allowed 6.7 YPP in their first 2 games, 3rd worst in the league. Despite their 1-point cover last week in a game they nearly lost, the Seahawks have not been a great home favorite as of late. Last season they were just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite losing 3 of those games outright. Dallas wea favored in their first 2 games but has been a very successful 7-2 ATS as a dog dating back to October of 2018. This one should be close so we grab the points. |
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09-26-20 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 | Top | 31-27 | Push | 0 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
#406 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON South Carolina +4 over Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of high expectations placed on them coming into the season. The Volunteers, including their 1-point win in the Gator Bowl over Indiana, have won 6 straight games and are ranked 16th in the nation entering this contest. That 6-game winning streak started with a big home win over South Carolina last season. However, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp entered that contest having beaten Tennessee 7 straight times and that sets up this home dog revenge situation perfectly for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is flying under the radar a bit early this season because they are known for solid, physical defensive play but Muschamp's teams also are known for struggling to put many points on the board. That should change this season. We like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo (former head coach at Colorado State) has former Rams QB Collin Hill to work with. He is a graduate transfer and won the starting job from Ryan Hilinski. Of course Hill knows Bobo's offense well and that will allow the Gamecocks revamped offense to hit the ground running with Bobo's play-calling and Hill's leadership as a veteran with experience in this offense. Hill's college career started in 2016 at Colorado State so he has a lot of experience under his belt! Last year's match-up between these teams saw the Gamecocks lead 21-17 at the half but they were on the road at Tennessee and playing with an anemic offense and watched the Volunteers outscore them 24-0 the rest of the way. This match-up will play out much differently. Of course the ranked (and hyped) Vols are attracting attention from the marketplace but they also have had issues leading up to this game because of covid-19 cases. This has resulted in Tennessee not being able to have consistently scheduled practices. Now they go on the road playing right into the teeth of revenge and there is a very positive atmosphere right now in South Carolina as the team seems rejuvenated with the change at offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks also have stability on the other side of the ball with Travaris Robinson continuing as the defensive coordinator - a role he was hired for in December 2015 - and he has plenty of experience working with Muschamp. Upset alert in this one! We like South Carolina plus the points here. |
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09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +5.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Giants actually looked OK on Monday night. Their offense didn’t do much (lost 26-16) but that was expected vs a Pittsburgh team that just might have the best defense in the NFL. We had the UNDER in that game and cashed but here we like the Giants to play Chicago tight and possibly pull the upset. QB Jones played fairly well against a great defense minus his 2 interceptions (279 yards & 2 TDs). They had no running game but that should improve here vs a Chicago defense that allowed Detroit to run for 138 yards last week. RB Barkley will have a much easier time this week after his 15 carry, 6 yard performance last week. The Bears came from 23-6 down in the 4th quarter @ Detroit last week so they pulled off a huge division comeback win. The Chicago offense looked shaky at best with Trubisky at the helm for much of the game. He did lead them to the 4th quarter comeback but we cannot trust him as a significant favorite. The Giants defense actually impressed us last week holding what should be a very solid Pitt offense (with Roethlisberger back) to 349 yards on 5.5 YPP. They should improve on that this week vs a pedestrian Chicago offense. When these two met here in Chicago last year, the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win after trailing at halftime. We expect the Giants to be improved this year while Chicago we’re not so sure. The Bears have covered only ONCE in their last 7 games as a favorite (can’t trust Trubisky in this role) and NY is 10-2 their last 12 as a road dog. Giants have a decent shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points. |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt. |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Rams +2.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET LA was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago and dropped back to 9-7 last year. A regression was expected so that wasn’t a big surprise. This is still a very well coached, solid team that we like as a dog here at home in their first game at the brand new SoFi Stadium. They actually may catch a break with no fans in the stadium as Cowboys fans travel as well as any and this very well could have been a home game like atmosphere for Dallas. The Cowboys are expected to be one of the top teams in the NFC but aren’t they always? The fact is, Dallas is almost always overvalued entering the season and we feel they are here laying a full FG on the road vs a playoff caliber team in the Rams. Dallas beat the have nots last year but they were just 1-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs. One of the few decent teams they did beat last year was this Rams squad. IT was an embarrassing 44-21 loss for LA at Dallas and we expect they will have a chip on their shoulder here after that setback. The Rams were favored in that game @ Dallas and now they are getting a full FG at home just one year later. In week 1, games that have a total of 50 or higher (this one does) the underdog is 13-2 ATS. This system did lose on Thursday night with KC covering but we don’t see that happening here. The majority of wagers have come in on Dallas (60%) which is not a surprise at all, yet only 35% of the money is on the Boys. We like this situation and we’ll take the Rams +3. |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
#403 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Coastal Carolina +7 over Kansas, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Coastal went into Kansas last year and upset the Jayhawks 12-7 as a TD underdog. While some may think KU will have extra motivation here after that loss, they are simply not good enough to be laying a full TD in this or really any game. Last year was no fluke. The Chanticleers played KU toe to toe and actually had more first downs, more total yardage, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession edge. They return 14 starters this year including many key players and we expect them to be better this season than they were last. Their record last year was just 5-7, however they lost 4 of those 7 games by 7 points or less so they could have easily had a better season. They ran the ball very well last year (35th nationally) and return 4 starters on the OLine along with top RB Marable who ran for 148 yards vs Kansas and over 1,000 on the season. We expect more of the same this year vs a Jayhawk defense that ranked 124th vs the run last year allowing 225 YPG. Kansas lost their QB, 3 starting offensive lineman, their 3 top defensive lineman and their best cover corner and 2 starting safeties. Their defense last year gave up at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games and now with a number of new faces it’s tough to see a drastic improvement if any. The offense may take some time to gel as well as the QB’s vying for the starting job have attempted a grand total of 19 passes combined in their careers. Lastly, and something we see as a big but overlooked situation is the fact that CC was able to get in ALL 15 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a KU team that has won just 6 of their last 59 games SU (vs FBS opponents) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than a TD. No thanks. We like Coastal Carolina here. |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army West Point Black Knights (-) over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET: Game #242 |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-) over South Alabama Jaguars, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #236 |
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02-02-20 | 49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON San Francisco +1.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET We had this game power rated at dead even on a neutral field so we’re getting some line value with San Fran in our opinion. The Niners finished with the better record (15-3 while KC was 14-4) despite facing the tougher schedule. The NFC West with the Rams & Seahawks (playoff team and playoff caliber team) was much tougher than the AFC West who had every team finish under .500 except the Chiefs. Down the stretch the 49ers faced a brutal schedule which included Green Bay (twice), LA Rams, Baltimore, New Orleans, Seattle (twice), and Minnesota all in their last 10 games (including playoffs). The only 2 non playoff caliber teams they played over their last 10 games were Arizona and Atlanta (who was actually playing very well at the end of the season). KC, on the other hand, faced off against the Chargers (twice), Denver, Oakland, Chicago, and New England over their final 6 regular season games – only one playoff caliber team. Despite the tougher schedule San Francisco had the better stats - +11 ppg, +96 ypg and +1.3 ypp this season while the Chiefs were +10 ppg, +32 ypg and +0.9 ypp. San Francisco had a point differential of +169 while KC was +143. Kansas City took on 8 playoff teams this year going 5-3 SU & ATS and outgaining those playoff opponents by an average of 31.0 yards per game. San Francisco went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS against their playoff opponents outgaining those teams by an average of 37.4 yards per game. Slight edge to Frisco. We think SF has an edge at many of the positions with QB being one of the few exceptions. Although it’s not as big of a gap there as some may expect. Let’s not forget that Niner QB Garoppolo is an amazing 23-5 SU as an NFL starter! The experts at Pro Football Focus recently ranked the players in the Super Bowl and 18 of the top 26 were 49ers. We agree with that. They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in total defense compared to 17th for Chiefs) which has been a successful formula in the past with 44 of the 53 Super Bowl winners entered the game with the higher ranked defense. They also have a much better ground game (2nd rated compared to 22nd for KC) so we will say with solid confidence that SF will outrush KC here facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th allowing 124 YPG on the ground. If that’s the case, teams that have the higher rushing total in the Super Bowl are 40-12 SU in the Super Bowl. We think SF will control the ground game, eating clock and keeping KC’s dangerous offense on the sidelines. We like the better defense and better running game getting points on Sunday. Take San Francisco. |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas City -7 over Tennessee, Sunday at 3 PM ET The Titans are obviously on a great roll winning back to back road playoff games as an underdog. However, now they are in a very tough situation playing their 4th consecutive road game vs a team that is even hotter than they are as the Chiefs have won and covered 7 straight games. It’s very rare to see a team playing their 4th straight road game spanning into the playoffs. In fact, out database, which goes back to 1980, reveals it has happened just 4 times and those road teams are 0-4 SU & ATS in that fourth game. They’ve also had the equivalent of 3 straight road playoff games entering this one as their final regular season game @ Houston was a must win or the Titans would not be in the playoffs. That takes a toll physically and mentally and that’s why the fourth game has come up all zeros in the past. KC on the other hand had a week off heading into last week’s 51-31 win over Houston and will be playing again at home. Just a huge situational edge for KC. In their two wins thus far, the Titans were outgained in both (by a combined 265 yards) and QB Tannehill has thrown for only 71 & 83 yards. As good as RB Henry has been, we believe Tennessee will need to do much more offensively in order to keep up with the Chiefs. Last week the Titan defense faced a whopping 92 offensive snaps which is the equivalent of about a game and a half so that added to their tough road situation should have this defense tired by the 2nd half. Baltimore had plenty of chances offensively as the Ravens were shut out on downs FOUR times inside Tennessee territory including 3 times inside the 21 yard line. The Ravens only punted ONCE the entire game. The Titans were very fortunate in our view. KC’s last loss was back in November and it was vs this Tennessee team. The Titans won that game 35-32 but the Chiefs dominated the stat sheet rolling up 530 yards to only 370 for Tennessee. The Titans scored on a long fumble return and put up the game winning TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game. KC also missed 2 FG’s in the 4th quarter and held a 9 point lead in that game with around 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. KC QB Mahomes put up 446 yards passing and 3 TD’s in that game and we expect another huge effort here. Despite this number sitting at 7, we still feel the value is with KC. Speaking of that first meeting, KC was favored by 5 @ Tennessee (late November) and now laying just 7 at home. Last week Tennessee was +10 @ Baltimore so we would expect it to be about the same here, especially with the Titans travel situation being on the road for basically a full month now. While Tennessee is getting most of the accolades for how they have been playing down the stretch and in the playoffs, let’s remember that KC has won 7 straight by an average of 17 PPG. They also just beat the team that WON the AFC South (same division as Tennessee) by 20 points. We think the Titans run ends here and KC wins by double digits. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Clemson (+) over LSU, Monday at 8 PM ET - After watching what happened during semi final weekend, we knew we’d get some value on Clemson in the Championship game. We just didn’t think it would be this much value. Clemson was favored by -2 with the line rising to -3 versus an Ohio State team that many felt was the best team in the country for the entire season, better than LSU. Now that same Clemson team is getting anywhere from 5 to 6 points versus LSU just a few weeks later? This is an absolute buy low (Clemson), sell high (LSU), spot for us. Most bettors are greatly affected by what they see most recently. They watched LSU roll over an Oklahoma team that in hindsight really had no right being in that game. They also watched Clemson get behind a great Ohio State team and battle their way back to a close win. So based on that LSU is going to crush Clemson right? A massive 80% of wagers have come in on LSU because of that recency bias. We love taking the contrarian viewpoint to go against the public here. Let’s first remember that Clemson’s opponent (Ohio State) was light years better than LSU’s opponent (Oklahoma). We liked the Sooners getting 2 TD’s in that game, however in hindsight they had a number of close games (5 Big 12 wins by 7 points or less) in a conference that simply turned out to be not very good. The Big12 won a grand total of ONE bowl game with 5 losses. A very impressive win for the Tigers but we’re pretty certain Clemson or Ohio State would have done the same thing if facing Oklahoma. We were impressed with Clemson’s resolve getting down 16-0 against the Buckeyes and rallying to win with a late TD drive. We’ve heard the narrative that OSU outplayed Clemson in the game and deserved to win. We disagree. While OSU did outgain the Tigers by 99 yards they also ran 23 more offensive snaps and still lost. On a yards per play basis Clemson outgained Ohio State 6.7 YPP to 6.0 YPP. As we stated a few weeks ago, the Clemson players and coaches are very familiar with this situation. This will be the 4th time in the last 5 years they’ve been in the National Championship game – winning 2 of those. This is eerily similar to last year’s National Championship when Alabama was a 6-point favorite and came in with an unbeatable offense averaging 48 PPG (same as LSU this year) and very few gave Clemson a chance. Of course the Tigers went on to roast the Crimson Tide 44-16 outgaining Bama 7.5 YPP to 6.0 YPP. LSU QB Joe Burrow is obviously outstanding. But let’s not forget Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is now 25-0 as a starter, has a National Championship under his belt, and is considered a generational talent that will almost positively be the #1 pick in the NFL draft when eligible. The underdog in the National Championship is now 6-0 ATS the last 6 years and 14-7 ATS the last 21 seasons. The oddsmakers sent out lines about a month ago on potential National Championship match ups and in this one they had Clemson as a 3-point favorite. Now they are getting nearly a full TD based almost solely on the results from their semi final games. Remember, the oddsmakers felt Clemson was 2 to 3 points better than OSU and they were correct with Clemson winning by 6. So if OSU would have won their game vs Clemson, based on the number versus the Tigers they would be between a 7 to 9 point dog against LSU. I’m sure you see our point that LSU is now overvalued. Are they a TD better than the two other teams in the country considered in the top 3? No way. We anticipate this game being very close. Getting points is a bonus and gives us the opportunity to win even if Clemson loses the game. We don’t think they will. We’ll call for Clemson to win their 3rd National Championship on 4 years. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET With all of their injuries in the offensive backfield, the Seahawks have become a one trick pony. With zero semblance of a running game, they will have to rely almost solely on the passing game and Russell Wilson. While Wilson has had a fantastic season, his running game with RB Carson, Penny, and Prosise (all out) they did next to nothing on the ground the last week with just 19 yards rushing from their RB’s. They caught a break last week with Eagle QB Wentz going out with a concussion in the 1st quarter leaving Philly to rely on backup QB McCown who had thrown 5 passes the entire season. Even with that the Eagles offense was able to push the ball inside the Seattle 25 yard line on all 5 second half possessions but were unable to finish drives with McCown at the helm. This is also a terrible spot for Seattle as two weeks ago they were in a playoff type game vs SF that came down to the final play, last week they traveled to the east coast and held on with Philly threatening late, and now they are on the road again. They are also banged up on the offensive line with a number of starters sitting out practices this week. Defensively the Seahawks rank in the bottom third of the NFL in most key categories and if you thrown out their game last week vs an Eagles offense that was very limited, they have allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Green Bay was able to rest last week and most of their players are at 100%. They are much more balanced offensively with QB Rodgers and RB Jones able to mix it up. Green Bay’s defense has also really stepped it up down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to 20 points or less. Wilson and Rogers have faced off 8 times in their careers with the home team winning all 8 games. Also NFL home teams in the Divisional round (home & rest) have proven to have a huge advantage with a 25-7 SU record over the last 8 seasons. We like GB to win this game by a TD or more. |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -102 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #280 |
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01-05-20 | Vikings +9 v. Saints | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +9 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line is way too high in our opinion. It should be under 7 according to our power ratings. To give you an idea of what we are talking about, this is the 5th highest spread of the SEASON for New Orleans. The only teams they faced in which they were laying more than 8 points were Carolina (twice), Atlanta, and Arizona, all teams with losing records. For comparison’s sake, just a few weeks ago the Saints were favored by 8 here vs Indianapolis who finished with a 7-9 record. On the other side, this is by far the largest underdog role Minnesota has faced this year. They were +2.5 @ Seattle (a playoff team) in December and +3 @ Green Bay who is the #2 seed in the NFC. Recent results have pushed this number too high. Minnesota closed out the season with 2 losses as they played their worst game of the season @ home vs Green Bay and then lost to Chicago but sat their starters as they were already locked into their playoff position. New Orleans closed out the season with 3 easy wins but 2 were vs teams who had nothing to play for including Carolina last week who had completely packed it in and had already started interviewing coaches after firing Ron Rivera. Their lone semi impressive win over that 3 game stretch was beating Tennessee. However even in that game the Titans jumped out to a 14 point lead but turned the ball over 4 times allowing the Saints to come back and win that one (Saints were outgained). That win over the Titans was their only win by more than 7 points vs a team that ended the season with a winning record. The Vikings have played very tight even in their losses with the exception of their game vs Green Bay a few weeks ago. If you throw that game out, Minnesota’s losses have come by an average of 5 PPG. Despite New Orleans winning 13 games and Minnesota 10, these two are almost dead even in point differential on the season (Saints +117 & Vikings +104) and Minnesota actually has outgained their opponents by +0.6 YPP compared to New Orleans +0.5 YPP. We anticipate a close game here and getting more than a TD is a gift in our opinion. Take Minnesota on Sunday. |
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01-04-20 | Bills +3 v. Texans | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET Despite winning the weak AFC South, we feel Houston is the worst team in the AFC playoffs. Football Outsiders Efficiency rating agrees with us as they have the Texans rated 19th overall in the NFL which is the lowest rating of any team in the playoffs, not just the AFC. They have been outgained on the season, outscored on the season, and their defense is the worst unit in the playoffs. Speaking of defense, we get a huge edge on that side of the ball with the Bills who rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing just 298 yards which is nearly a full 100 yards less than a Houston defense that ranks 28th in total defense. The Buffalo defense allowed more than 21 points only 3 times the entire season and they gave up 17 or less in 10 of their 16 games. We anticipate the Texans struggling on offense here. They faced only 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 10 at Football Outsiders and scored 7 vs Baltimore, 23 vs Tampa (16 points from the offense), and 28 vs New England. Their 28 points vs the Patriots was a bit of an aberration as Houston was actually held to just 276 total yards. Many may look at the Bills offense and see them having problems here as they average just 19 PPG. On top of that over their last 4 they have not topped 17 points. However, over their last 4 games they have faced 4 defenses ranked inside the top 7 in the NFL, thus the struggles as of late. When facing a defense ranked 20th or lower (Houston ranks 28th) Buffalo averaged 25 PPG. They run the ball very well (8th in the NFL at 128 YPG) and they are facing a Houston defense that allows 4.8 YPC (27th in the NFL). On a yards per play basis, the Houston defense ranks dead last in the NFL (tied with Cincinnati) allowing 6.1 YPP. These two met here last year in the regular season and the Texans prevailed 20-13. The game was tied at 13-13 with under 2:00 minutes remaining and Buffalo had the ball. A pick 6 from the Texan defense with 1:28 remaining gave Houston the point margin. The Bills are much better than a year ago and we think they go in and win this game. Small underdogs of 1 to 3 points in the Wildcard round are a money making 35-20 ATS since 1978 (64%). Take the points here. |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (-) over Boston College, Thursday at 3 PM ET - We really like this situation for a solid Cincy team. The Bearcats have just 3 losses on the season with one coming vs Ohio State and they lost their final 2 games of the season both at Memphis on back to back weekends. Those are far from terrible losses as those 2 teams combined for a 25-1 regular season record. OSU is obviously one of the top few teams in the nation and Memphis, who had 1 loss on the season, gave a very good Penn State team all they could handle in their bowl game. Both of their final 2 losses @ Memphis were games that went to the wire and the yardage was almost dead even in both. One of those losses Cincinnati was forced to use freshman QB Bryant because starting QB Ridder was injured. Speaking of Ridder, his shoulder was not 100% down the stretch and the Bearcat passing game was not great because of that. However, with the extended time off our word is that Ridder is back to 100% which will make this offense much more dynamic. For comparison’s sake, if we throw out the OSU game in which Cincy was shutout, they averaged 37 PPG when Ridder was healthy. Over the final 4 games when his shoulder was not right, they put up only 21 PPG. We expect them to have a very good day offensively vs a BC defense that ranks 125th nationally in total defense allowing 481 YPG. The BC offense relies very heavily on the run. After starting QB Brown went out with a season ending injury in mid October, the Eagles have averaged only 131 YPG passing. They were successful running the ball this year (267 YPG) the problem is, RB Dillon was the main reason for that as he rushed for 1900 yards and 15 TD’s. He is not playing in this game as he prepares for the NFL draft which subtracts easily their top offensive weapon. BC is also in transition as head coach Adazzio has already been fired, offensive coordinator Bajakian has moved onto Northwestern, and WR coach Gunnell is coaching the team as they wait for Ohio State DC Hafley to take over after this game. Cincy is excited to be playing a Power 5 opponent, they have the MUCH better defense, and no turmoil with their coaches. Lay the TD here with Cincinnati. |
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12-31-19 | Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
#255 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida State (+) over Arizona State, Tuesday at 2 PM ET - ASU will be playing this game without their 2 top offensive weapons as RB Benjamin (1,100 yards rushing and 10 TD’s) and WR Aiyuk (1,200 yards receiving and 8 TD’s) are both sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Their backup RB’s have COMBINED for only 85 yards on the ground this season. For a team that ranks 89th in total offense and 94th in scoring offense, they can ill afford to lose their top 2 playmakers. Many may expect that FSU might be distracted with their coaching situation but we argue that ASU is the team that will be at a bigger disadvantage in that regard. FSU fired Willie Taggart but the interim coach Odell Haggins has been on the Seminole staff since 1994 and coached their final 3 regular season games this year. He also led them to a bowl win in 2017 in a similar situation. The players really like Haggins and he’ll be on new head coach Mike Norvell’s staff next year. ASU, on the other hand, will be playing this game without their offensive coordinator (who was fired at the end of the regular season) AND their defensive coordinator left 10 days ago to take the head coaching job at New Mexico. FSU will also be without their top RB Akers, however they are more experienced behind him with his back up Laborn with 300 yards rushing and 4 TD’s on the season. FSU QB Blackmon has thrown for nearly 5,000 career yards and 40 TD’s should find plenty of openings vs an ASU pass defense that ranks 114th in pass defense. Blackmon will also have his full complement of weapons, including top WR Terry who has 1,800 yards receiving and 16 TD’s over the last 2 seasons. Arizona State has been a money burner in the favorite role going 0-8 ATS their last 8 in that role. This year alone they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite losing half of those games outright. FSU is happy to be back in a bowl after missing the post-season last year for the first time since 1981. We expect them to play well here and we feel an upset brewing. |
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12-30-19 | Illinois v. California -6 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
#250 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON California (-) over Illinois, Monday at 4:00 PM ET - We obviously following Illinois very closely being in Big 10 country. While they step into this game with a 6-6 record, this is NOT a .500 type team. They were extremely fortunate to get wins in a number of games this year. They beat Wisconsin, but were drastically outgained and caught the Badgers coming off Iowa with OSU next. Even with that Wisconsin led basically the entire game and made a number of key mistakes in the final 6:00 minutes to lose that one. Versus Michigan State they trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter and had everything possible go their way in that 3 point win despite getting outgained by more than 100 yards. The Illini were rolled 29-10 in their season finale vs a Northwestern team that hadn’t won a conference game entering that contest. In conference play, this Illinois team was outgained by nearly 400 yards vs Nebraska, by nearly 300 vs a poor Northwestern offense, by 239 vs Minnesota, by 233 vs Michigan, and by more than 100 vs Wisconsin and Michigan State. You get the point. For the conference season the Illini averaged 290 YPG while giving up 440 YPG. In non-conference play they lost at home to Eastern Michigan, struggled to beat a terrible UConn team that finished the year 2-10, and topped Akron who might be the worst team in all of college football. While we feel Illinois is drastically overvalued, this Cal team is undervalued in our opinion. A glance at the full season offensive stats doesn’t tell the entire story. Sure the Bears struggled offensively, however, when QB Chase Garbers started and played the entire game (he was injured for about half the season) this California team was a perfect 6-0. With Garbers at QB, the Bears started the season 4-0. He was injured in the 5th game vs Arizona State with the score tied 7-7 and they went on to lose that game. They were 1-5 SU without him under center (including the ASU loss) and Garbers came back to start the final 2 games which were wins @ Stanford and @ UCLA putting up over 400 total yards in each of those games. They averaged 25 PPG with Garbers under center and 15 PPG when he was unable to play. This Cal defense is good enough to hold Illinois in check. As much heat as Cal’s offense received this year for being lethargic, they averaged more YPG than the Illinois offense did this year. The Illini struggle to move the ball through the air averaging just 177 YPG (110th nationally) and the will have problems getting their running game going vs a Cal defense that ranks 26th vs the rush. Cal’s defense played very well against some potent offenses this year holding Oregon to 17 points, Washington St to 20 points, UCLA to 18 points and Ole Miss to 20 points. We have advantages on offense and defense in this game and its being played in San Francisco which is only 14 miles from the Cal campus giving them the location edge as well. We have a feeling the Illinois, playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2014, might just be happy to have gotten to this point. Cal, on the other hand, is very focused on winning this one after losing in OT vs TCU in their bowl game last year. The Bears win and cover this one. |
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12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Seattle +3.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET This line is a big time overreaction to what happened last week. Our power ratings have this line at dead even yet we’re getting more than a FG with Seattle at home. The Seahawks lost last week at home vs Arizona (we were on the Cards) in a game that really wasn’t that important for Seattle. Even with a win over Arizona last week, this game vs San Fran would have been for all the marbles in the NFC West. These two met on November 11th with the Niners going off as a 6 point favorite in that game and Seattle winning 27-24 in OT. Now the Niners are laying more than a FG on the road? We understand Seattle’s cluster injuries at the RB spot but bringing in Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, 2 players who know the system and the plays, we’re guessing their running game will be fine on Sunday. Not to mention they will be facing a SF defense that has been trending downward for over a month now allowing 46, 29, and 31 points the last 3 weeks alone. Seattle had some key defensive players sitting out last week with injuries but it looks like many will return this week including DE Clowney and LB Griffin. This is the first time Seattle has been a home dog this year. For comparison’s sake the Seahawks were -5 here vs New Orleans and -3 vs Baltimore. That puts this number into perspective. The Seahawks have been a huge money maker as a home underdog going 13-2 ATS in that role since 2011. They’ve also owned this NFC West series winning 13 of the last 15 games vs the 49ers (12-3 ATS) with SF’s only wins during that stretch coming by 2 points and 3 points in OT. We’ll take the points. |
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12-29-19 | Eagles v. Giants +4 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +4 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Many will be jumping on Philly here because they have to win to clinch the NFC East title. Please keep in mind that many teams that have to win, don’t win. We give the Giants a good shot at the upset here. The Eagles beat Dallas last week but let’s face it, they were not playing well coming into that game. In their previous 3 games before facing off with Dallas, they lost to Miami, beat this NYG team in OT, and scored with under 30 seconds left to beat Washington. Not overly impressive. As we mentioned these two met a few weeks ago in what was a very important game for the Eagles and the Giants led 17-3 at half but lost in OT. That was with immobile Eli Manning at QB for NY and now with Jones back at QB we feel the Giants have a better chance in this one. Jones returned last week from injury and threw for 352 yards and 5 TD’s while also giving them a running threat from that position. He’ll also get help from now healthy RB Barkley who had 189 rushing yards and 90 receiving yards last week. The Giants offense has now put up 400+ and 500+ yards in each of their last two games, both wins. NY has been competitive with 5 of their last 7 losses coming by a TD or less and they have some momentum coming into their home finale off back to back wins. Philly 1-2 ATS this year as a road favorite and we’re not sure we can even count cover @ Washington as it took 2 TD’s in final 30 seconds (defensive TD included) to get that lucky cover. How much does Philly have left in the tank after 3 straight down to the wire division games including a must win last week vs Dallas? NY will come to play here as they’d like nothing more than to knock Philly from the NFC East top spot. Close game and we’ll take the points |
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12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +3 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Browns have obviously been a huge disappointment this season. We could see them mailing it in this week in their season finale @ Cincy. They had a big game last week at home vs Baltimore, their last hurrah so to speak, and lost 31-15. With a team that lacks character like Cleveland and with nothing to play for, we anticipate a poor effort here. On the other side, while the Bengals have only 1 win on the season, they’ve been much better since inserting Andy Dalton back at QB a month ago. Unlike Cleveland, the Bengals are also showing some fight as witnessed in last week’s game @ Miami where they trailed 35-12 in the fourth quarter and battled back to send the game into OT where they lost by a FG. In their home finale, we have no doubt this team wants to up their 1 win and go out on a positive note. They’ve also already locked up the #1 pick in next year’s draft so no taking for Cincy here. These two just met in Cleveland 3 weeks ago and the Browns won that game 27-19. It was a misleading final however as Cincinnati outgained the Browns by 120 yards but gave up a 61-yard pick 6 which turned out to be the difference. The Bengals were +10 in first downs in that first meeting and controlled the ground game in that loss with 179 yards rushing. They tallied 451 total yards and after last week’s performance they have topped 400 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. The Browns have also been a money burner as a road favorite at 1-3 ATS & SU this year and 1-5-1 ATS in that role since 2012. We like Cincinnati to win this game so we’ll take the points. |
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma +14 v. LSU | Top | 28-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
#241 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma (+) over LSU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This Oklahoma team and their head coach Lincoln Riley understand what this College Football playoff appearance is all about. That’s because they were here last year in a very similar situation. The Sooners, the #4 seed a year ago, came in as 13.5 points underdogs vs Alabama who was the # 1 seed. OU lost that game by 11 points but picked up the cover. They did get down by 21 points at one point, however when an offense like OU’s is getting 2 TD’s, they are never out of it and they proved that last year. They put up nearly 7.0 YPP on one of the best defenses in the country last year in this game. Now they face a potent LSU offense, however the Tiger defense is not nearly the caliber of last year’s Alabama defense. We see a similar type game this year. The Sooner defense is underrated this year. Last year they entered this game allowing a ridiculous 454 YPG. This season they are giving up just 331 YPG, a full 120+ yards better than last year, and they’ve allowed an average of just 278 YPG over their final 4 games of the season. On the year the OU defense is allowing almost 100 YPG less than their opponents are averaging. While we don’t expect them to shut down a potent LSU offense, we also don’t think the Tigers will be able to move the ball at will as many believe. Offensively the Sooners have scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year and they’ve topped 40 in 8 of their 12 games this year. Sooner QB Jalen Hurts has tremendous experience playing in college football’s version of the Final 4 as this will be his 4th straight year playing in the college football playoff (played with Alabama the previous 3 seasons). LSU’s coaches and players have not played in playoff which we feel gives a bit of an edge to OU in the experience aspect. The Tigers are very good but we don’t think they should be a full 2 TD favorite in a game of this magnitude. They did beat UGA by 27 in the SEC Championship game, however vs the other top tier SEC teams LSU was not dominant beating Bama by 5, Auburn by 3, and Florida by 14 with the last 2 games mentioned coming at home. Oklahoma’s offense is definitely good enough to keep up in this game and we expect them stay within this lofty number. |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -11 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Eastern Michigan Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #225 |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -4 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PMET The Packers have been treading on thin ice for quite some time and now and we think it catches up with them here. They are 11-3 on the season but they have been outgained by their opponents 371 YPG to 336 YPG. They rank 21st in the NFL in total offense and 23rd in total defense. Those simply aren’t the numbers of an 11 win team. Last week a struggling Bears offense outgained Green Bay by 123 yards but the Packers pulled out an 8 point win. That was the 7th time this season GB has been outgained yet still won the game. Aaron Rodgers is barely completing 50% of his passes over the last 3 weeks and Green Bay has been held to 24 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. It’s really tough to keep winning when you’re getting consistently outplayed on the stat sheet. Especially on the road vs a solid team. Minnesota is 6-0 at home with all but one win coming by at least 10 points. Their average margin of victory here in Minneapolis is 13.5 points. In the first meeting the Vikes rolled up 421 yards and held GB to just 335 but the Packers squeaked out a 21-16 win. Minny QB Cousins, while most wouldn’t expect it, is having a better year the Rodgers. He’s completing 70% of his passes (63% for Rogers), with 3,481 yards (Rodgers slightly less at 3,463), 25 TD’s (24 for Rodgers) and a rating of 111.1 (Rodgers is at 100.4). If the Vikings lose here they give Green Bay the NFC North title. A win by Minnesota extends us to next week to determine who wins the division. The fact is the Vikes are better on offense (ranked 9th to 21st for GB), better on defense (14th to 23rd), and the better scoring team (7th to 14th for the Packers). They are also a terrific home team winning 16 of their last 19 home games with 15 of those 16 wins coming by at least a TD. Under Zimmer the Vikings are 28-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or less. This has been a tough place for Green Bay to play as their last win in Minnesota was back in 2015. Lay it with the Vikings here. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Central Florida Knights, Monday at 2:30 PM ET: Game #211 |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona +9.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Seahawks continue to win but also continue to play close games with 10 of their 11 wins coming by 8 points or less. Their miniscule +26 point differential means they have an average winning margin of +2 PPG. Seattle’s injuries are also mounting and we think this will be a very tough game for Seattle. Starting DE Clowney and starting safety Diggs are both doubtful. Starting DT Woods has also just been suspended for 4 games for violating the league’s PED policy. The Seahawk defense ranks 27th overall and 30th in pass defense and we have no doubt that Arizona will be able to score points and keep up in this one. The Cards picked up some confidence last week putting up 38 points vs Cleveland in a win with QB Murray hitting 9 different receivers for receptions. Seattle won the first meeting but the stats were almost identical with each team running 55 offensive snaps and the Seahawks outgaining the Cards by just 19 yards. Arizona is now 4-1-1 ATS this year as a road dog while Seattle is just 4-2 SU at home this year with their wins coming by 1, 1, 6 in OT, and 7 points. Their once vaunted home field advantage has dissipated as the Seahawks are just 10-11-1 ATS their last 22 home tilts. Seattle has a massive game with San Francisco so while a win is needed, a look ahead is not out of the question. This NFC West division game stays close |
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12-21-19 | Florida International +1.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida International Panthers (+) over Arkansas State Red Wolves, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET: Game #213 |
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