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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-26-19 | Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169 |
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10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run. |
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10-24-19 | Panthers v. Flames -127 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Calgary Flames over Florida Panthers, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston OVER 65.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #103 |
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10-23-19 | Knicks +10.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points! |
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10-22-19 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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10-20-19 | Ravens +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Seattle comes in with a shaky 5-1 record in our opinion. Four of their five wins have come down to the wire with margins of 1, 1, 2, and 4 points. Their only comfortable win was @ Arizona. All of their 5 wins have come against teams that are currently at or below .500 and again, most were decided in the last few minutes of play. The only team they’ve faced that currently has a winning record, the Saints, beat them here on their home field. Both of these teams come off deceiving results last week. Baltimore beat Cincinnati 23-17 but dominated the game outgaining the Bengals by 250 yards. Seattle was down 20-6 @ Cleveland and had to claw back to pick up a 32-28 win and were aided by 4 Browns turnovers (just 1 for Seattle). The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense averaging 450 YPG and their YPG differential is an impressive +100 (Seattle’s is +40). The Ravens also lead the NFL in rushing at 205 YPG and they are playing into a Seattle defense that allows 4.7 YPC (25th in the NFL). Their balanced attack with QB Jackson mixing in the passing game should keep the Seattle defense that allows 6.0 YPP (25th in the NFL) off balance. Seattle’s once vaunted home field advantage isn’t so great anymore. They are just 9-7 SU their last 16 home games and their ATS mark here is 6-11 their last 17 (0-3 ATS this year). They have not been impressive here this year with a 1-point win over an 0-6 Cincinnati team (Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards), a loss to New Orleans, and a 1-point win over the Rams who misses a FG as time expired which would have won the game. Baltimore, on the other hand, thrives in this role with a 6-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog. We give the Ravens a great shot at the win and if not, we’re guessing it comes to the wire so any points are valuable here. |
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10-19-19 | Colorado v. Washington State -12 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372 |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #312 |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET Green Bay is off a big win @ Dallas but looking at the stats they were quite fortunate. The Cowboys outgained GB by 228 yards and averaged a whopping 8.2 YPP vs the Packer defense. Green Bay’s offense only averaged 5.2 YPP in the game. Dallas had 3 big turnovers which contributed to the Packer win. Green Bay is not quite as good as their 4-1 record might indicates as they are getting outgained by -40 YPG and -0.6 YPP. The defense looked great early but they’ve definitely come back to earth. After completely shutting down a bad Chicago offense in their season opener, the GB defense has allowed an average of 6.2 YPP over their last 4 games. Detroit has a situational advantage here coming off a bye. They have also beaten Green Bay 4 straight times including 2 wins here at Lambeau which gives them confidence coming in. The Lions have played a tough schedule beating the Chargers and Eagles. They blew a big lead @ Arizona to open the season in a game that ended in a tie and their only loss was vs the Chiefs in a game Detroit led with under 1:00 minute remaining. The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last 4 meetings with Green Bay and with the Packer defense not as good as people are making them out to be, Detroit could get there again. All of Detroit’s games this year have been decided by 4 points or less and we see another close one here. Take the points. |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET We love this spot for the Rams. They have had a full 10 days to get ready for this one after their 30-29 road loss @ Seattle last Thursday. It was their 2nd of back to back losses after they lost to Tampa the previous Sunday. Now you have the team that was in last year’s Super Bowl sitting at 3-2 in a must win spot at home. The Niners, on the other hand, come in on a short week after beating Cleveland Monday night. So San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 but they come into this game overvalued in our opinion. The four teams they’ve beaten are all currently under .500 and they have a combined record of just 5-15. Last year when these teams met in LA the Rams were -10.5 favorites and now they are laying only a FG? We realize Niner QB Garoppolo didn’t play in that game and SF looks improved but should this line really be a full 7.5 points off from last season? The value and situation absolutely favor LA here. In the Sean McVay era, the Rams have lost back to back games only twice and the rebounded with win and cover their next game both times. Historically NFL home favorites off Thursday night games (extra prep time) facing teams off Monday night games (short week) have covered 9 of 12 times. San Fran’s defense has looked good this year but let’s keep in mind that all of their opponents have an offense ranked 18th or lower (offensive efficiency via Football Outsiders) and 3 of those teams rank 25th or lower. The QB’s they’ve faced this year are Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston. This week they take a step up facing Jared Goff. Now to the LA defense. After holding their first 3 opponents to 49 total points, the LA defense wasn’t great the last 2 weeks including last week @ Seattle where they allowed 30 points. However, the Seattle offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in efficiency which is far better than any offense SF has faced. They’ve already faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton when he was healthy, and Drew Brees who are all far better than an QB the Niners have faced. We expect the Rams defense, which is very talented to play much better at home after two somewhat embarrassing performances. We also look for the offense to play well vs a 49er defense with solid stats because they’ve played weak offenses. This is a much, much bigger game for the experienced Rams and we like them to win by more than a FG. |
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10-13-19 | Bengals +12 v. Ravens | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +12 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Ravens continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers and the public. This team is simply not very good. Their defense ranks 31st allowing 6.7 YPP and the only team that is worse are the hapless Dolphins. The Ravens wins have come against Miami, Arizona, and Pittsburgh. The Arizona & Pittsburgh wins came down to the wire and last week the game with the Steelers, who were playing their 3rd string QB in the 4th quarter, went to OT. Despite playing an easy schedule, their only double digit win was @ Miami to open the season. The Bengals are 0-5 but they’ve been competitive more often than not with 3 of their 5 losses coming by 4 points or less. They’ve also played much better on the road this year taking Seattle & Buffalo, both better teams than Baltimore, to the wire in 1 and 4 points losses respectively. Cincy was +9 @ Seattle and +6.5 @ Buffalo and now they are getting double digits at division rival Baltimore? The value is absolutely on Cincinnati here. Laying double digits with a poor defense is not a way to get rich quick when wagering on football. Baltimore is already 0-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and just 10-22-1 ATS their last 33 games as a home chalk. Going back to 2010 they are 4-11 ATS as a double digit favorite. Cincinnati has lost by more than 11 points only twice in the last 20 meetings between these two AFC North rivals. The last time a team in this series was favored by double digits was way back in 2001 and the dog has also covered 9 of the last 10. This one should be close. Take the points. |
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10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128 |
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10-09-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:37 PM ET |
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10-08-19 | Jets v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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10-07-19 | Browns +5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
ASA play on: Cleveland Browns +5 over San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20PM ET - When we compare the key stats between these two teams we see some clear advantages on paper for San Francisco but we never just look at the numbers. We dig deeper. The Niners have one of the best rush defenses statistically in the NFL allowing just 3.4 yards per rush which ranks them 3rd. But they’ve played the Bengals (30th), Steelers (27th) and Bucs (24th) who are three of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL when it comes to yards per rush attempt. San Francisco will be tested here by a Browns offense that is 9th in RYPA at 4.9. That’s a big key for Cleveland as a strong running game takes pressure off QB Mayfield and opens up the play action pass. Sticking to that theme, the 49ers defense is ranked as one of the best in the NFL, but again, that’s a byproduct of the poor offenses they’ve faced. The Browns on the other hand are starting to look like a team that was hyped to be a contender in the AFC this season. Cleveland has the 8th most efficient defense in the NFL and have faced two of the best offenses already in Baltimore and the L.A. Rams. Jimmy G and the 49ers are 3-0 on the season but the three wins have come against teams with a combined 3-12 SU record. San Francisco is off a bye but that hasn’t helped them in the past as they are on an 0-6 ATS streak in that scheduling situation. The Niners are 7-17 ATS their last 24 home games and the last time they covered as a home favorite was 2014 with Jim Harbaugh as the coach. In fact, the 49ers are 1-12-1 ATS as a home favorite their last fourteen. Cleveland on the other hand excels as an underdog with a 9-5 ATS record dating back to the start of last season. SF has benefited with 2.3 takeaways per game, but they’ve also turned in over 2.7 times per game which is worst in the NFL. Don’t trust a favorite that doesn’t take care of the football. PLAY ON BROWNS! |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +7 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET This line looks fishy to us. The 0-4 Denver Broncos only getting 6.5 points? Shouldn’t this be 7 or higher? A few spots have +7 by the majority are at +6.5. The Chargers were favored by 7 and 7.5 in the two meetings last year. Looks like the oddsmakers are betting people to take the Chargers in this one. We actually like this Denver team. They are much better than their 0-4 record. They’ve lost 2 games on FG’s as time expired to Chicago and Jacksonville. They lost by 11 @ Green Bay in a game that should have been much closer as the yardage was dead even and the Packers scored on a 37 yard TD drive and 5 yard TD drive following Denver turnovers. We’re not sold quite yet on the Chargers. They are very close to being 1-3 with their only win coming vs the hapless Dolphins. Their other win was at home in OT vs the Colts in a game where Indy kicker Adam Vinitieri missed 2 FG’s and an XP. If not for that, the Colts win that game. Even last week vs Miami, it was a 20-10 game entering the fourth quarter and they outgained the Fins by just 157 yards and they were +1.0 yard per play. While that may look impressive, every other team that has played Miami has outgained them by at least 195 yards and were at least +2.8 YPP. LA also has very little home field advantage and we wouldn’t be surprised to see just as many Bronco fans in the seats on Sunday. The Chargers are 0-2 ATS at home this year and just 6-15 ATS their last 21 when playing host. This is a division game so while Denver is 0-4, they’ve been very competitive and we expect them to go all out here. The underdog is 12-4-2 ATS the last 16 meetings in this AFC West rivalry and we’ll call for another underdog cover. |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers -3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a tough spot for the Jags as this will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks including last week’s come from behind win @ Denver. Last week Jacksonville fell behind 17-3 @ Denver and had to battle their way back to get the last second win with a FG as time expired. The fact is, the Broncos ran 22 fewer offensive plays in that game and it still took a late FG to win the game for the Jaguars. Denver outgained Jacksonville on a YPP basis 6.9 to 6.0 but the Bronco defense allowed RB Leonard Fournette to run wild racking up 225 yards on the ground. Fournette had not topped 70 yards rushing in any game leading up to that performance so we see that as an outlier. Everyone is talking about the impact that QB Minshew has had on the Jags but how about Carolina QB Allen getting some notice? He gives the Panthers a much better chance to win compared to a banged up Cam Newton who couldn’t throw the ball down the field at all. Allen is now 2-0 as a starter and has thrown for almost 500 yards and 4 TD’s with no interceptions. His QBR is 65.8 which currently would rank him 6th in the NFL if he had enough snaps under his belt. For comparison’s sake, Minshew’s QBR is 47.0 which is 18th in the NFL and while we feel he is a very solid rookie, the hype has become a little much. Minshew also tweaked his knee late in last week’s game and is not 100% and was held out of practice until midweek. His counterpart Allen is not just another guy thrown in under center, he was a 5* QB recruit that actually beat out Heisman winner and Arizona QB Kyler Murray at Texas A&M prompting Murray to transfer to Oklahoma. He’s definitely not just another guy. Another aspect of Carolina’s team that gets overlooked is their defense which is really good. The Panthers currently rank 4th in the NFL in total defense allowing only 287 YPG and 2nd in YPP defense allowing just 4.3. Since losing 30-27 to the Rams in the season opener, Carolina has not allowed more than 20 points. They are very close to being 4-0 rather than 2-2 with close losses to the Rams & an emerging Tampa team. We would argue that if Allen had been under center since day one, this team might be 4-0. Add in the strong ATS stat that has Jacksonville just 4-20 ATS their last 24 games vs NFC team and this one looks solid. Just a very good situation to grab a surging Carolina team at home in this one. |
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10-06-19 | Patriots -15 v. Redskins | Top | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -15 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Horrible match up for the Skins. It looks like Washington head coach Jay Gruden will be starting rookie Dwayne Haskins at QB or veteran Colt McCoy which is not ideal vs the Patriots top notch defense. Haskins came in last week vs a bad Giant defense and threw 3 interceptions in their 24-3 loss and they were outgained by over 200 yards. McCoy hasn’t taken a snap this season and has had very little practice time with his receivers due to his recovery from last year’s broken leg. If this offense with Haskins at the helm could only score 3 points vs a Giant defense that had allowed at least 28 points in every other game, what are they going to do against a New England defense that has allowed one TD the ENTIRE season. While this line is obviously high, it’s nothing new to the Patriots who have now been favored by more than 14 points three times this season. They controlled the other two games they were tabbed big favorites vs Miami & NY Jets outscoring them by a combined 73-14 and we’d put Washington in that terrible team category at the moment. There are also rumblings of Gruden being fired as early as next week so there are plenty of distractions to go along with this 0-4 team. Expect New England to play very well as they are coming off a poor outing. They did beat Buffalo 16-10 but they were outgained drastically by the Bills and Tom Brady had his worst QB rating in 13 years in that game. The Redskin defense had allowed 30 or more points in every game until the Giants scored 24 last week. The Patriots coming off a poor offensive showing should have a field day against this defense on Sunday. They shouldn’t have to score much to get this cover either. We don’t anticipate Washington doing much of anything offensively so New England scoring 24 or more will probably get this done. Lay it with the Patriots. Our MATH MODEL projects a Patriot 35-10 win giving us an easy cover. |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356 |
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10-04-19 | New Mexico v. San Jose State OVER 66.5 | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New Mexico Lobos at San Jose State Spartans, Friday at 10 PM ET: Game #309 |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195 |
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09-27-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105 |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET This is simply a huge game for the Eagles. They are currently 1-2 on the season and can’t afford to drop to 1-3 and still feel they have a decent shot at the playoffs with Dallas currently rolling through the NFC East. Their 2 losses came by 4 points @ Atlanta and 3-points vs Detroit so they are fairly close to being 2-1 or even 3-0. On their final possession last week they had the ball in Detroit territory but were unable to get into FG position for the tie. At Atlanta they had the ball inside the Falcon 20-yard line in their final possession but came up short on 4th down. They’ve definitely had their chances. If tonight’s game goes as we expect, it will be another very close game and we’re getting a full +4 to +4.5 points which would have covered or at worst pushed Philly’s first 2 losses. Green Bay is 3-0 but they have been outgained in every game and they are getting outgained by an average of 42 YPG. They have been the beneficiary of a +6 turnover ratio after just 3 games (1st in the NFL). While their defense is vastly improved it’s not like we are talking about a top 5 defense right now. As good as they’ve been, they are still ranked only 13th in total defense. It’s the turnovers they’ve created that are the difference so far this year and we feel that simply doesn’t continue (+2 turnovers per game). The offensive numbers have been poor. They are 3-0 despite scoring only 19 PPG (23rd in the NFL). They are ranked 28th in total offense and 28th in yards per play. The most concerning offensive stat in our opinion is their 3rd down conversion rate is just 25% ahead of only Miami & NY Jets. That ends offensive possessions early and is obviously a drive killer. Philly, on the other hand, is at 56% rate on 3rd down which 2nd in the NFL only behind Dallas. Right now we feel the Eagles are undervalued and Green Bay is overvalued right now. Take the points with Philadelphia. |
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09-22-19 | Giants v. Bucs UNDER 48 | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 48 Points - NY Giants @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The unit that has flown under the radar in the NFL more than any other this season is probably the Tampa defense. Last year they were just terrible. They ranked near the bottom of the NFL in most key stats including scoring defense where they allowed 29 PPG (31st in the NFL). That has changed dramatically this year under new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles (Jets head coach last year). While they are allowing a full TD less than last year (22.5 PPG) thus far, the defense is actually outplaying those numbers. They have actually allowed ONE touchdown this season in 2 games. That’s it. San Fran’s offense looks very good after putting up 41 points last week on 550+ yards of offense last week @ Cincinnati. A week earlier the Niners scored 31 on this Tampa team although the defense did its part holding them to just 17 (two pick 6’s for San Fran in the game). Now they face a NYG offense that has scored 17 & 14 points their first two games. We realize that Giants are changing QB’s to Daniel Jones but we also expect them to ease him in and keep the game plan fairly simple especially with all of their injuries at WR. We don’t expect Jones to light it up in his first career start. The Tampa offense has been nothing to write home about scoring 17 & 20 points in their two games. While the NYG has struggled in the secondary, we’re not sure Jameis Winston is the QB to take full advantage of that. With the Bucs favored by 6 here the oddsmakers are expecting a final score of 27-21. We’d be extremely shocked if the Giants get to 20+ points and we anticipate Tampa in the mid 20’s. Take the UNDER here. |
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09-22-19 | Broncos +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Denver +8.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis (pick-em) over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line opened with Indy -3 which is where we thought it should be. The public remains enamored with Atlanta as they get bet hard on a regular basis. That has dropped this line down to -1 and now we’ll jump on the Colts. We were on Atlanta last week as a home dog which was an entirely different situation at home off a loss @ Minnesota. The Falcons picked up that home win over the Eagles and now they go on the road vs an AFC team playing their home opener. While bettors still love the Falcons, the fact it since their Super Bowl appearance in 2016, the Bird have a SU record of just 18-16. Indy comes in 1-1 having taken a very good Charger team to OT in the opener (loss) and then upsetting Tennessee on the road last Sunday. While this team lost Andrew Luck at QB, his replacement Jacoby Brissett is more than capable especially with a very good running game and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Brissett is completing 69% of his passes with 5 TD’s and just 1 interception on the season. That Indy running game is averaging 185 YPG (2nd in the NFL) and they are facing a Falcon defense that was gashed for 172 yards in their only road game @ Minnesota. The knew they could control the game on the ground (Minny won 28-12) so much so that they only attempted 10 passes the entire game. The Falcons are 1-8 ATS their last 9 as road underdogs and with the Colts now just having to win at home, we’ll grab them. |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349 |
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09-21-19 | Michigan v. Wisconsin UNDER 45 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER: Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #344 |
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09-17-19 | Phillies v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Atlanta +2 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET Hard to say teams are in must win mode in the 2nd week of the season, however we can put the Falcons in that category. After losing @ Minnesota to start the season (not surprising) they host the Eagles on Sunday night. After this game the Falcons are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games so this game becomes extremely important. In their loss in Minneapolis, the Birds are +9 first downs & +75 yards. However, they turned the ball over 3 times and had a punt blocked as well. All four of those miscues led to Minnesota TD’s which accounted to ALL 28 of their points. Here they face a Philadelphia team that got down 17-0 at home – 20-7 at half – vs a Washington team that was a 10 point dog in the game. They came back to win 32-27 but weren’t overly impressive in their opener. The Philly defense allowed Case Keenum and the Skins to throw for 380 yards and 3 TD’s. Now they face a much more potent Atlanta passing game, especially at home where QB Matt Ryan had a 118 passer rating last year compared to 99 on the road. These two met in last year’s season opener in Philadelphia. The Eagles scored a late TD with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pull off the 18-12 come from behind win despite getting outgained by the Falcons. Matt Ryan is 10-1 ATS in home openers and he gets another win here. Take the points with Atlanta. |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 53.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -104 | 42 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 53.5 Points - Kansas City @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Oakland defense had no answers for the KC offense last year allowing 75 points in their 2 meetings. KC QB Mahomes torched the Raiders for nearly 600 yards passing and 6 TD’s in the 2 games. The Chiefs played in Jacksonville last week and that total opened 52.5 which was only a point or so lower than this one despite the fact the Jags have a MUCH better defense when compared to Oakland’s stop unit. Even though KC was facing a very good defense last week, they still put up 40 points on almost 500 yards. They averaged over 8 YPP in the game. However, the much maligned KC defense also gave up over 8 YPP to a Jacksonville offense that played much of the game without starting QB Nick Foles who was injured. The Raider offense looked very solid last week putting up 24 points and averaged over 6.0 YPP on a solid Denver defense. Their defense held Denver’s offense to only 16 points but that was misleading as the Broncos also averaged over 6.0 YPP in the game. We see shootout here with neither defense slowing down the opposing offense. |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night @ New England and we have a feeling they bounce back and play very well on Sunday in their home opener. Roethlisberger has been unbeatable (8-0 ATS) when coming off a loss of 20 or more points in his career. We suspect he’ll have a big day vs a Seattle defense that allowed Bengal QB Andy Dalton to shred them for a career high 418 yards last Sunday. Seattle picked up the win in that game 21-20 but they were lucky to do so getting outgained by nearly 200 yards. In the game the Bengals averaged 6.1 yards per play to just 4.8 for Seattle. The offensive line looked shaky at best paving the way for only 72 rushing yards while Russell Wilson was only able to pass for 160 yards. Looks like the Steeler defense will be a reprieve this week after facing Tom Brady and the precise New England offense last week. We’ll give the Pittsburgh defense a break last week as they did look terrible but much of that we feel was the New England offense. This is still a defense that finished 6th in total defense and YPP defense last year. They’ll look much better this week and have a chip on their shoulder based on last week’s poor performance. Seattle’s ATS numbers as an underdog are solid, however they have been terrible in their road openers going 2-12 SU / 1-12-1 ATS since 2005. On the other side, when the Steelers are coming off a loss and favored by 3 or more points, they are 18-5 ATS since 2010. This one sets up nicely for Pittsburgh and we’ll lay the points. |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191 |
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09-14-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana OVER 59 | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 43 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER – Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #109 |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 78 h 9 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +7.5 over New Orleans, Monday at 7:10 PM ET Houston is too good to be getting a full TD in this game. We’re talking about a playoff team from a year ago (11-5 record) that upgraded their weak spot (offensive line) by adding LT Laremy Tunsil, one of the best in the game. They are facing a New Orleans team that might be a bit overhyped entering the season. The Saints are also a notoriously slow starting team going 0-10 ATS and 1-9 SU in their first 2 games of the season (over the last 5 years). They are also 0-5 ATS since 2015 as home favorites in September. Last year if you remember, in the opener the Saints were favored by 10 at home vs a bad Tampa team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. The Bucs won the game 48-40. In their 2nd game, also at home, they barely held on to beat Cleveland by 3 points. Now we have one of the better teams in the AFC getting a full TD? We’ll take that. Houston has a solid defense and with Deshaun Watson at QB, they can definitely score enough points to keep up with the Saints if needed. It’s also been a very solid investment to take Monday Night underdogs during the first week of the season as they are 25-15 ATS since the late 80’s. We think Houston gives the Saints all they can handle on Monday and an outright win wouldn’t be a surprise. Houston and the points here. |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +6 over New England, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Pats are notorious for their slow starts as they tend extend their preseason into the first few games of the regular season so to speak. Head coach Belichick adjusts and tweaks early in the season until he finds the line ups he feels are most effective. Last year the Patriots lost to Jacksonville & Detroit early in the season, two teams that ended the year with losing records. A year earlier New England lost to both Carolina & KC, both games at home, early in the season. They were favored in all of those games and were -7 or more in 3 of the 4. Brady may take some time to adjust without top target Gronkowski in the line up and their offensive line could be a problem this year. Starting LT Trent Brown left in the off-season and he is being replaced Isaiah Wynn who hasn’t played a snap yet in the NFL. They are also starting a guard who is a career back up. Pats will be good but it may take some time this year. We are much higher on Pittsburgh than many. We feel this will be an addition by subtraction situation with RB Bell & WR Brown, two problems in the locker room, now gone. We’re hearing the chemistry for the Steelers is MUCH better right now than it was at any point last year. Roethlisberger is back and he has plenty of weapons offensively. We have the Steeler defense pegged as one of the best in the NFL this year (finished 6th in the NFL last year in YPG & YPP allowed). Roethlisberger has been historically very good as an underdog with a 34-18-3 ATS lifetime record. Even more impressive he has a winning outright record 30-25 SU in those games as an underdog! We realize that New England has done very well vs Pittsburgh, however we think this is a different circumstance. Take Pitt + the points. |
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09-08-19 | Colts +7 v. Chargers | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET We think the betting market has overreacted to the loss of Andrew Luck for the Colts. This line was at Chargers -3 and now has jumped to -6.5 and some at -7. That’s move is too much in our opinion. While Andrew Luck was very important to this team, the Colts are solid across the board. They were in the top 10 in many defensive categories last year including scoring, total yards, yards per play, and yards per rush. On offense Jacoby Brissett is a more than capable back up and we actually consider him a middle of the pack starter in the NFL. He’s not great, but he’s not bad either. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that is definitely one of the best in the NFL. They were ranked the 4th best rush blocking unit and 2nd best at pass blocking in the entire NFL last year by Football Outsiders. All 5 starters are back up front so they will be very good again. The LA Chargers are without their top RB Melvin Gordon and their home field advantage is very minimal at their make shift soccer stadium in LA which holds 27,000. In fact, for many of their home games there are just as many opposing fans as Charger fans. They were just 2-6 at home ATS last year. Our word is the Colt players really like Brissett. The locker room is very tight and we feel they will play on Sunday to show everyone this team was and is more than just Andrew Luck. Expect an inspired effort from a very solid Colts team as they give the Chargers all they can handle on Sunday. Take the points. |
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09-08-19 | Bills +3 v. Jets | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line says that the Bills & Jets are rated basically the same and on a neutral field we’d have a pick-em game. We disagree. We have Buffalo rated as the stronger team and we’ll take the points here. We’re getting a strong defensive divisional underdog which always makes us sit up and take notice. Buffalo’s defense was outstanding last year. They finished 2nd in the NFL in total defense behind Baltimore only. They also finished 3rd in YPP defense and #1 in the NFL in pass defense. The Bills split with the Jets last year but a closer look reveals they dominated despite the 1-1 record. Buffalo won at NY 41-10 as an underdog last year and lost a tight game at home 27-23. In those two games combined, the Bills had 820 total yards to just 447 for the Jets. Their defense held NY to 3.6 & 4.7 yards per play. Expect them to stifle the Jets offense again on Sunday. Many discount the preseason but we do make note that Buffalo was 4-0 and looked very good. They have very solid continuity with the entire coaching staff back this year. The Jets, on the other hand, have a new head coach Adam Gase and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. While we expect New York to be improved, there will be a transition period with Gase in charge. There are a few technical points that back the Bills here as well. First, the underdog has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 meetings OUTRIGHT. Second, NFL division underdogs in week 1 of the season are a money making 17-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Our numbers have Buffalo’s chance of winning outright at more than 50%. We definitely have to take the points with the Bills. |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331 |
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09-07-19 | Cincinnati v. Ohio State OVER 53.5 | Top | 0-42 | Loss | -108 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #321 |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears UNDER 47 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
ASA BET ON: UNDER 47 Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears, Thurs 8:20PM ET - Several key indicators suggest Under here and our computer analytics predict just 43 total points being scored between these two rivals. The Packers have a new offensive system in place with new head coach Matt LaFleur calling the plays. QB Aaron Rodgers and a few other offensive starters saw limited or no preseason action so an adjustment period will take place. Several other questions remain surrounding the offense and this might be the worst place to play with an unfamiliar system. The Bears defense was one of, if not the best in the NFL last season. There are too many top rankings to list so we'll highlight a few key numbers: 1st in defensive efficiency, 1st in pass efficiency and 2nd in rushing defense efficiency. The Bears allowed just 17.6PPG last season, including holding the Packers to just 17-points on this field in mid-December. The Packers defense will be improved and should be up for the task of stopping a Bears offense that was ranked 20th or worse in offensive efficiency. Chicago's 25.6PPG scored last season is somewhat misleading as the defense score six TD's and gave them a short field to work with on many occasions. The Bears averaged just 16.5PPG in 2017 so we see their season numbers dipping back to the median or 23PPG which was the league average last season. It all adds up to a lower scoring game in the opener Thursday night. |
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08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203 |
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08-30-19 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Washington Nationals (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-25-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-24-19 | Texans v. Cowboys | Top | 0-34 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#271 ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston Texans (pick-em) over Dallas Cowboys, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET We have been thoroughly unimpressed with Dallas this pre-season. They are without 2 of their top offensive weapons (RB Elliot and WR Cooper) and they have scored just 23 total points in 2 games this preseason. The Boys were beaten by San Francisco in their opener and then struggled to top the LA Rams last week, a team that is playing NONE of their key players this preseason. Dallas was outgained in both of those games. While the 3rd preseason game is normally a dress rehearsal so to speak for the regular season, the Cowboys will be without 5 players who were All Pros last season. Head coach Jason Garrett also showed last year that he doesn’t necessarily view this game as one to get his starters ready for the regular season as he sat many of his key players in their 27-3 loss to Arizona in week 3 of the preseason. Garrett has also proven he has very little interest in the preseason with a 13-22 lifetime record including just 6-16 since 2014. Unlike Dallas, we have been impressed with Houston. Their offense is clicking scoring 56 points in their 2 games topping 400 yards in both. Dallas has yet to get to 300 yards in either of their 2 games. It looks like Houston will take this game much more seriously and we expect their regulars to get solid time in this game. That includes QB Deshaun Watson who has only thrown 7 passes this preseason. Head coach Bill O’Brien wants to get him ready for the opener in a few weeks. The Texans also have a strong rotation behind Watson as Joe Webb has already thrown for almost 500 yards in the first 2 preseason games. Unlike Garrett, Houston head man O’Brien seems to put more emphasis on the preseason as he has a 13-8 record. The Texans are viewed as the little guy in this state behind the Cowboys giving their players and coaches a little extra motivation even if it is just the preseason. The Texans will want to win this game. We’ll side with Houston on Saturday night. |
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08-23-19 | Bills v. Lions +1.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFLX PLAY ON Detroit +1.5 over Buffalo, Friday at 8 PM ET Lots of people jumping on 2-0 Buffalo over 0-2 Detroit here. In fact, as of this writing well over 70% of the wagers have come in on Buffalo. We’ll go contrarian here and take Detroit to win their first pre-season game. The Lions are 0-2 but faced 2 of the better teams in the NFL in New England and Houston. Their defense has allowed 61 points in those 2 games, however both of their opponents were top 12 in scoring offense last year. Now they face a Buffalo offense that averaged only 16.8 PPG last year ranking them 30th in the NFL. After struggling the first 2 games we look for Detroit’s defense to play much better at home on Friday. Offensively the Lions looked MUCH better last week. They threw up a stinker in week 1 scoring only 3 points vs the Patriots. Last week @ Houston, the Lions put up 23 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play which was better than the 5.7 YPP put up by the Texans. Back up QB David Fales played very well going 12 of 19 for 226 yards and 2 TD’s. This week we expect starting QB Matthew Stafford to get his first action of the pre-season. While head coach Matt Patricia has not stated that Stafford will play, we can take a look at last year when Patricia had him playing into the 3rd quarter in Detroit’s pre-season week 3 win over Tampa Bay. While most NFL head coaches treat this as a trial run for the regular season, Patricia goes even further as the week leading up to this game is laid out exactly as it would be for a regular season games. That includes film study of upcoming opponent. Buffalo is 2-0 but they have yet to face a starting QB as Indy was without Luck and last week Carolina was without Cam Newton. The Bills are on the road for the 2nd straight week and we have a feeling this has now become a very big game for Patricia and the Lions after starting 0-2. This line opened with Detroit -2.5 which is where our projected line was as well but it now has moved to +1 because most are on Buffalo as we stated above. We like the value and the situation here. Take Detroit. |
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08-17-19 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET |
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08-15-19 | Cubs v. Phillies +137 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 137 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies (+) over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-11-19 | Phillies +101 v. Giants | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-10-19 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET |
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08-09-19 | Vikings v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 34-25 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings, Friday 8PM ET – The handle on this game is certainly backing the Vikings as more tickets and money have flowed in on Minnesota. But we are contrarian here and will side with the home team Saints. In our opinion the biggest factor that favors the Saints is the quarterback rotation as former Vike Teddy Bridgewater will play a large portion of this game and then be followed by Taysom Hill. Bridgewater is a former starter and pro bowl players and should have plenty of success against the Vikings #2’s. Hill has some great preseason statistics and we won’t see a drastic drop-off when he enters the game. The same can’t be said for the Vikings who lack QB depth at this time and will give Sean Mannion, Kyle Sloter and Jake Browning the opportunity to win the back up job. The Viking struggled with their O-line a year ago and have made some changes up front which will take time to mesh as a unit. Minnesota was 18th in offensive efficiency a year ago and won’t be ready until the opener. The same can’t be said about the Saints offense that is deep and coming off a season where they ranked 4th overall in OEFF. Overall the Vikings were a better defensive unit than the Saints a year ago, but the separation isn’t drastic as Minnesota ranked 4th in DEFF, the Saints were 11th. Minnesota has some solid exhibition records under Zimmer but the offensive edge for the Saints later in this game is too much to overlook. Fade the public and bet New Orleans. |
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08-08-19 | Broncos v. Seahawks UNDER 36 | Top | 14-22 | Push | 0 | 32 h 21 m | Show |
ASA play UNDER 36 Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks, Thursday 10:00 PM ET – The Broncos have a game under their belt as they faced the Falcons in the Hall of Fame game. Denver managed just 188 total yards of offense on 57 plays for a 3.29 yards per play average. It’s only preseason but when you consider the Falcons had the 27th ranked YPPL defense a year ago in the regular season, allowing 6.0YPPL, it’s not a great sign for Denver. The Broncos have a new offensive coordinator in his first year as an OC so there is going to be a slow learning curve for the players and coaches. We don’t expect the Broncos to jeopardize starting QB Flacco more than a series if at all this week which means the QB rotation will be Drew Lock, Kevin Hogan and Brett Rypien who combined for 17 of 29 passing and just 93 yards last week. Denver is a run first offense so don’t expect to see a wide-open approach to this meaningless preseason game. The Broncos averaged 17 yards per point last year which ranked them 27th in the NFL last season. Seattle took a step back defensively last season (14th in defensive efficiency) which was an aberration as this unit has ranked in the top 10 in D.E.F.F. in six of the last eight seasons. In summary, the Broncos will have a hard time moving the football here and scoring points. So that leaves us with the Seahawks putting up points against Denver. The Broncos defense did not play well last week against the Falcons and we expect a drastic improvement from that game to this one. New head coach Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL and is the guy that orchestrated the Bears incredible defense last season. He inherits a Denver defense that was 5th best in the league last year by our metrics. The Broncos defense faced seven offenses that ranked 9th or better in the NFL last season, including the Chiefs (twice) who were #1, Rams once #2 and the Chargers (twice) who were 3rd. Seattle is playing their opening preseason game and will have most of their regulars on the bench here including Russell Wilson who makes this offense go. As of this writing QB Geno Smith is the #2 guy behind Wilson but he sat out practice this week with a minor knee injury. That means former Broncos QB Paxton Lynch could play 3 quarters Thursday, which is great for the Under bettors. Under Pete Carroll, in games #1 and #2 of the exhibition season, the Seahawks have stayed Under the total in 7 of ten the past five years. Volume of money, bets and line movements have us on the Under 36 here. |
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08-03-19 | White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -128 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET |
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07-31-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals +103 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: St Louis Cardinals over Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET |
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07-25-19 | Indians v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET |
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07-21-19 | White Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 1:10 PM ET |
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07-18-19 | Astros v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET |
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07-14-19 | White Sox v. A's OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET |
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07-07-19 | A's v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET |
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07-04-19 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET |
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06-29-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET |
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06-25-19 | Pirates v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET |
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06-22-19 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET |
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06-19-19 | Angels v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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06-15-19 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 8-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Under 211.5 Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors Thursday 8PM ET – Way too many unknowns from a psychological aspect to wager on a Side of this contest but the Under still offers value. The scenario surrounding KD has the Warriors organization, and the entire NBA in flux right now, and we’re not sure of the impact it has on the current Warrior players. On the other side we have a Raptors team that has never “gotten over the hump” in a game of this magnitude and even though Kawhi is clearly the best player on the planet, he still needs support from his teammates. Three of the five games in this series has gone Over the total but one game finished with 213 total points and the two most recent game finished with just 197 total points and 211. In Game 4 of this series we saw the combined total field goals attempts dip to just for just 164 and both shot under 45% as a team. The average FG attempts this season in the NBA was 178 and teams averaged 45.9% shooting so both numbers were significantly lower than ‘average’. In Game 5 the two teams combined for 167 field goal attempts and 74 of those were 3-pointers, which is 10 more than league average. Golden State knocked down 20 of 42 3-pointers or 47.6% which is ridiculous (made 45 total in the previous 4 games) while Toronto was just 8 of 32 from downtown. Golden State won’t make as many tonight and even if Toronto makes a few more it won’t equate to enough points to go Over the number. The Raptors defense has been the big difference in this series as they’ve held the Warriors to just 44%, which is significantly less than their season average of 48.8%. Golden State averaged 117PPG on the year but are scoring just 105PPG in the Finals. Toronto had two great shooting performances in this series, but the magnitude of this game will cause some tightness in the younger roster of the Raptors as they face a monumental opportunity to close out the Champs this evening. We predict another slower paced game by both teams and tremendous defensive intensity in this elimination game. Bet UNDER! |
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06-10-19 | Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 215 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
ASA play on: Under 215 Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors, Monday 8PM ET – Every logical approach to this game screams betting the Warriors and the statistical support is off the charts BUT my eyes are telling me the Raptors are just playing better right now and it’s not as close as the number suggest. So, we’re staying away from a side wager on this game and will bet Under the total. Three of the four games in this series has gone Over the total but one game finished with 213 total points which would win here, and the most recent game finished with just 197 total points. Tonight’s contest has all the makings of another game with less than 200 total points. The last time out these two teams combined for just 164 total field goal attempts and both shot under 45% as a team. The average FG attempts this season in the NBA was 178 and teams averaged 45.9% shooting. The Raptors defense has been the big difference in this series as they’ve held the Warriors to just 44.2%, which is significantly less than their season average of 48.8%. Golden State averaged 117PPG on the year but are scoring just 104.7PPG in the Finals. Toronto had two great shooting performances in this series, but the magnitude of this game will cause some tightness in the younger roster of the Raptors as they face a monumental opportunity to close out the Champs this evening. The return of KD is also significant for the Warriors defensively as they can defend the arc better which has been an Achilles heel for them this series. We predict another slower paced game by both teams and tremendous defensive intensity in this elimination game. Bet UNDER! |
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06-10-19 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-6 | Push | 0 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET |
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06-09-19 | Bruins +108 v. Blues | Top | 5-1 | Win | 108 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins over St Louis Blues, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight. |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points! |
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06-04-19 | Rockies v. Cubs OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North. |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1. |
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05-29-19 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 14-9 | Win | 101 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7. |
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05-24-19 | Rays -129 v. Indians | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Indians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin. |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -3 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win! |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game. |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -125 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 3 Saturday – Fatigue was clearly a factor in Game 1 of this series as the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver with four games played in the higher altitude. In Game 2 they had a little more rest and were off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so the effort and attitude was drastically better. Portland led by 15 at halftime and had a legitimate chance to steal a road win Golden State before falling short late. Based on the money and tickets being bet on this game its clear the public is backing Golden State as a dog in Game 3 but we won’t fall for the trap. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-11 SU record, 14-4 their last eighteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. Back at home expect another improvement in Game 3. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. The Warriors had some very good road differentials and efficiency numbers but that was with KD and now they are just 4-6 ATS their last ten on the road. Portland is going to win this home game. |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 – The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds. The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits. |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout. |
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05-16-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits. |
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05-15-19 | Sharks +128 v. Blues | Top | 5-4 | Win | 128 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON San Jose Sharks over St Louis Blues, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET |
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
ASA’s 10* play on: OVER 220.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors, Game 1 Tuesday 9PM ET – The injuries to the Warriors has a dramatic impact on this line and what we expect Golden State’s game plan to be going into this series. As we saw in the clinching win over the Rockets, the Warriors reverted back to the “Klay and Steph” show which saw them play fast and attempt a ton of 3’s. Golden State chucked 38 three pointers in the game which was four more than their league average of 34. The Warriors were the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA this season, averaged 1.160 points per possession and 117.7PPG. This Golden State team was not as good defensively as past editions as they finished the season ranked 13th in defensive efficiency. Portland is coming off a touch series with a slower paced Nuggets team (4th slowest in paced during the regular season) and will enjoy a faster paced tempo here. Portland was the 3rd most efficient offensive in the NBA during the regular season averaging 1.146 points per possession and 114.7PPG. The Blazers defense ranked outside the top half of the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.105PPP. Neither team does well defending the 3-pointer (13th and 15th) and both shoot it well (8th and 3rd). During the regular season the oddsmakers posted totals of 218.5 (Nov 23rd), 227, 226 and most recently 235 on Feb 13th. In other words, the most recent meeting between these two teams had a total of 235 and now we have a number of 220.5, which oh-by-the-way, is less than the league average of total points scored per game during the regular season. It all adds up to a higher scoring game. BET OVER! |
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05-12-19 | Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog. |
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05-12-19 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series. |
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05-08-19 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 220 | Top | 91-116 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
ASA play on: OVER 220.5 Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – The Bucks had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series and only managed 90 points. Then in Games 2 and 3 they put up 123 points, then followed up with 113 in Game 4. Based on the pace of play numbers from Game 4 the total points scored should have been much higher than the 214 that was put up. Boston and Milwaukee combined for 190 field goal attempts (league average 178 this season) but both had a terrible night from beyond the arc (Under 23% each) so the game finished with a relatively low total. Milwaukee is going to score in this game as they have at home in the post season. In four home contests the Bucks have put up 120 or more points in 3 of four games. Milwaukee wants to play fast as evidenced by their 104 possessions per game at home this season which is tops in the NBA. That faster pace has led to the Bucks being the highest scoring team in the league at home with a 119.9PPG average. Boston wasn’t particularly fast paced on the road this season, but they were 15th (average) in points scored on the road at 110.7PPG. The Over has cashed 17 of the last 24 meetings and we expect that trend to continue here. |
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05-07-19 | Blazers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here! |
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05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today! |
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05-05-19 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox,Sunday at 2:10 PM ET |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 102 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game. |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA play on: Boston Celtics -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 3) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe had huge Game 2’s after struggling under the weight of the pressure in Game 1. Middleton made seven 3-pointers and totaled 28 points while Bledsoe chipped in with 21 points. Boston’s All-Star guard Kyrie Irving had a horrible shooting night in Game 2 with just nine points on 4 of 18 shooting. So, we are betting the numbers flip again in Game 3 on Boston’s home floor with the C’s off a BAD loss. The added pressure of being on the road in this opener will again get to the Bucks role players and the hot shooting they enjoyed in Game 2 won’t be the same here. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-2 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last seven clashes with the Bucks on this floor. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 3. |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 217 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
ASA play on: OVER 217 Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers, Game 3 Thursday 8PM ET – We are now getting 6 full points of value on this Over/Under compared to the first game of this series which opened at 223. In the first two games of this series these two teams combined for just 203 and 183 total points which has forced the oddmakers hand tonight. The pace of play and field goal attempts have been very low in the first two games but now that the venue has changed, we expect the 76ers to dictate the pace of play and force Toronto into a faster game. Philly was the 8th fastest paced team in the league at home this year at 101.6 possessions per game. When playing at home this season the 76ers games averaged 229 total points per contest. Toronto shot 47% on the road this season and averaged 113.2PPG while giving up 108.2PPG for an average of 221PPG. In the two regular season meetings on this court these two combined for 226 and 227 total points and the Over has cashed 7 of the last nine meetings in Philadelphia. The Sixers set the tempo tonight the Raptors are forced to play with them. BET OVER! |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 220 | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
ASA play on: UNDER 220 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – First off, the oddsmaker have adjusted this number up compared to Game 1 so we’ve picked up a few points of value. When we break down Game 1 we see a couple glaring reasons to bet Under in Game 2. The two teams combined to attempt just 160 field goals in the game which is drastically lower than the league average of 178, which typically produces 222 total points per game. Based on the law of averages and statistical analysis it’s logical to assume that 18 less field goal attempts per game is going to produce a total far less than the 2.5-points difference of tonight’s total compared to league average (222 vs 219.5). So why did Game #1 go so far Over the total? Both teams shot remarkably well with the Blazers making 51.9% of their FG attempts and 41.4% of their 3-point attempts. Those numbers are much higher than their season average of 46.7% and 36.2%. Denver also had a very good shooting night by making 50.6% of their attempts from the field and 41.4% from beyond the arc. Again, both numbers are quite a bit higher than their season average of 46.6% and 35.2%. Denver home games this season averaged 217 total points per game while Portland’s road contests averaged 222. The major factor in this Under wager is the pace of play as the Blazers were the 19th slowest in the NBA on the road this season at 99.4 possessions per game. Denver is literally one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA at home (27th) at just 97.3 possessions per game. With both teams preferring to play slower, and both shooting a more normal percentage, it will translate to an easy Under. Based on our highly successful Math Model we project 211 total points being scored tonight. |
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05-01-19 | Islanders +118 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON New York Islanders over Carolina Hurricanes, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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