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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-23 | Missouri State v. St. Mary's -12.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s -12.5 over Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - St Mary’s has been a completely different team at home compared to on the road. We were on the Gaels last Saturday when they beat UNLV by 2 points on a neutral court in Phoenix but failed to cover the 6 point spread. Since that game they have played 2 home games winning by a combined score of 163-90 vs two solid opponents, Middle Tennessee State and Northern Kentucky. STM did have a rare home loss back in November vs Weber State in a game they blew a 16 point second half lead. They are 6-0 in their other 6 home games winning all by at least 13 points. The Gaels have won 5 straight games including a very impressive win @ Colorado State who is currently ranked 30th in the nation per KenPom. In their one home game vs a similar rated opponent, STM beat a very good Davidson team by 34 points as an 11 point favorite (Davidson is ranked 115th and tonight’s opponent Missouri State is ranked 116th). This is a fantastic defensive team ranking 12th nationally in efficiency allowing only 0.92 PPP and they are allowing only 53 PPG at home. The Gaels have struggled away from home offensively but when playing in University Credit Union Pavilion, where they’ve won 40 of their last 43 games, they are averaging nearly 80 PPG this season. Missouri State topped Lindenwood by 22 points at home on Tuesday (we were on Mizzou St) and now make the long trip to the west coast. The Bears have played 4 road games this season and lost all 4 averaging only 64 PPG (in regulation) in those losses. Now facing the best defense they’ve seen this year, we don’t expect much offensively from MSU. The Bears have faced only one top 100 team this season and lost that game by 17 points vs Drake. St Mary’s will be the best team Missouri State has faced this season and we look for an easy win for the home team. |
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12-23-23 | Grizzlies -117 v. Hawks | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on Memphis Grizzlies Pick'em -115 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - The Grizzlies are significantly better with Ja Morant on the floor as evidenced by their two wins with him back in the lineup. Today they face a Hawks team off a game last night in Miami. Atlanta is 5-13 SU their last 18 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -2.7PPG. Going back to the start of last season the Grizzlies have an average point differential of +5.1PPG when holding a rest advantage over their opponents and a 16-12 record. Atlanta took a hit when they lost up-and-coming Jalen Johnson and have just 3 wins in their last ten games. This is the Hawks 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days so fatigue will be a factor. Memphis has two quality wins over the Pelicans and Pacers in their last two games and there is a reason they are favored in this game. |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 37.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 37.5 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 PM ET - Both teams are fighting for their Wildcard Playoff lives which is going to lead to plenty of points in this storied rivalry. We are seeing an uptick of scoring in the NFL overall and more importantly in games like this one with playoff implications. These same teams squared off on Nov 26th in Cincy which resulted in a 16-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh should have scored more than the 16-points as they amassed over 420 total yards on 6.2YPP. The Steelers settled for three field goals of 41 or less yards and the Bengals kicked a 47-yarder. Missed opportunities by both teams was the story of this game as the Steelers fumbled at the Bengals 15-yard line, Cincy threw an INT at the Steelers 18. It was the Bengals QB Browning’s first start and he didn’t play well with 227-passing yards and that INT. He’s obviously been much better in his last three games going 79/103 for 953 total yards with 5 TD’s to 2 INT’s. The Steelers will start Mason Rudolph at QB who has NFL starting experience and shouldn’t be a drop off from either Pickett or Trubisky. He’ll face a Bengals defense that is one of the worst units in the league. Cincy gives up 22.2PPG, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush on the season. In their last two road games they’ve allowed over 30+ points in each. This isn’t the Steel Curtain the Bengals will face on Saturday either. Pittsburgh is 20th or worse in: yards allowed per game, yards per play, rushing yards and passing yards. In their last three games the Steelers have allowed 21 or more points to the Cardinal, Patriots and Colts. The Bengals average 5.5YPP offensively and score 21.9PPG despite injuries/lost games with QB Burrows. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have totaled 43 or more points. Bet the Over here. |
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12-23-23 | Georgia State v. Utah State -120 | Top | 45-22 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Pick -120 over Georgia State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This Georgia State team had much higher aspirations this seasons as they expected to contend and possibly win the Sun Belt Conference. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Panthers fell off a cliff and lost 5 straight to end the season and they are now sitting in a lower tier bowl they didn’t anticipate being in. They were outgained in each of their last 5 games by a total of nearly 900 yards and it looks like this team has packed it in. Now they travel west to Boise and where the windchill is expected to be in the 20’s at game time. Not ideal for a warm weather team. GSU lost a ton of production to the transfer portal as well with their top RB (over 1,300 yards) and top WR (over 800 yards) already out the door. Utah State has the advantage of playing on the blue field in Boise every other season as both are members of the Mountain West Conference. This line is a bit light in our opinion (we have USU as a 3 point chalk) which might be due to the fact that the Aggies top 2 QB’s are injured and won’t play in this game. However, their starter in this game will be senior Levi Williams who is very experienced and set to be a Navy SEAL when this game comes to an end. Williams led USU to a win in their regular season finale vs New Mexico, scoring 5 TD’s (2 passing and 3 rushing) in a game they had to win to become bowl eligible. Prior to coming to Utah State, Williams was the starting QB at Wyoming where he was 2-0 in bowl games including playing at this venue (Idaho Potato Bowl) 2 years ago accounting for 5 TD’s and 327 yards of total offense in that win. He should be more than comfortable in this spot. These 2 teams played a very similar strength of schedule this season (79th and 84th SOS per Sagarin) yet Utah State had much better numbers with a YPG differential of +30 (GSU was -58 YPG) and a YPP differential of +0.7 (GSU was -0.9). After winning their previous 2 bowl games, Utah State was embarrassed in their bowl game last year losing 38-10 vs Memphis and they’ve put a heavy emphasis on winning this one. We like Utah State here. |
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12-22-23 | Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 7:40 PM ET - We are grabbing the value with the Nets here at home plus the points. These two teams recently met in Denver where the Nuggets were favored by -9-points. That means this line should be Denver minus 1 or 2 points. The Nets were in the middle of a tough road stretch and were playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude. They shot horribly at 41% overall and made just 8 of 30 3-point attempts. The Nuggets were just favored by this same spread in Toronto who we grade slightly worse than Brooklyn. The Nuggets road numbers aren’t great at 7-8 SU with an average point differential of minus -0.4PPG. Brooklyn is 8-5 SU at home with the 12th best average margin of victory at +6.8PPG. We like the Nets to get a bit of revenge here from that recent loss in Denver. Grab the points. |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida -4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
#219 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Florida -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams are 6-6 on the season but we feel this UCF team is undervalued and better than their record. Half of their losses this season came with starting QB Plumlee out with an injury. They were just 1-3 SU when Plumlee was sidelined and the only win during that stretch was vs an FCS team. The Knights outgained their opponents by +100 YPG on the season and even vs bowl teams they were +31 YPG. That was mainly in a very tough Big 12 Conference. Georgia Tech played in the weaker ACC and was outgained on the season. UCF had the stronger strength of schedule and had the much better key numbers overall with a +85 point differential (GT was +8), a +100 YPG differential (GT was -10) and a +1.3 YPP differential (GT was dead even). And those numbers included the games that Plumlee was on the shelf or we’d be looking at an even more lopsided situation in the stats. We’re also getting a massive strength vs weakness situation in this game in favor of the Golden Knights. They run the ball for an average of 233 YPG (4th in the nation) on 5.7 YPC (5th in the nation). Plumlee being healthy at QB is a huge part of that success. They are facing a Tech defense that allows 225 YPG rushing (131st out of 133 teams) on 5.4 YPG (130th). This game is also being played in Tampa, Florida which obviously benefits UCF. The opt outs and portals are fairly minimal on each side however 2 of the bigger transfers are on the Georgia Tech defense with their top CB and top DE out. We like UCF to win this one by at least a TD. |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over New Orleans Saints, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 7-7 records but we feel the Saints are overvalued at this point in the season. They are coming of 2 straight wins which were impressive on the scoreboard, however those wins were vs Carolina and NY Giants. Their win over the Panthers was very deceiving as New Orleans was outgained in that game (at home) by 100 yards but had a defensive TD. On top of that they had 2 TD drives of 44 yards or less after Carolina turnovers. Last Sunday’s win over NYG was a bit more impressive however they caught the G-Men on a short week after beating GB on Monday night. The Saints wins this year have come vs Carolina (twice), New England, NY Giants, Chicago (with backup QB), Tennessee and Indy. The Colts are the only team in that group currently with a winning record. The Rams are surging winning 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in OT. They’ve also covered 4 straight. Speaking of covering, Rams HC McVay has been great late in the season with an ATSU record of 17-4-1 his last 22 December games including 10-1-1 ATS at home in December. The LA offense has been clicking on all cylinders as of late averaging 33 PPG, 425 YPG and more than 6.0 YPP over their last 4 games. Not only that, 2 of those games came vs Cleveland and Baltimore, who rank 1st and 2nd in the NFL in total defense. The New Orleans defense looked good at home the past 2 weeks vs terrible offenses (NYG & Carolina) but prior to that they had allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their previous 6 games. Prior to their 2 wins the last 2 weeks vs poor competition, the Saints had lost 5 of their previous 7 games with all of those losses coming by at least 5 points. New Orleans is just 6-14-1 ATS their last 21 games following a win and we like the Rams to win this one by a TD or more. Lay it. |
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12-21-23 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 115-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - The Clippers trade for Harden seems to be working out as they’ve won 9 games in a row, including a road win last night in Dallas. L.A. is now playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back in OKC. The Thunder have been off since the 18th and they’ve won 6 of their last eight games. The Thunder are coming off two straight impressive wins in Denver and at home against Memphis by 19-points. Oklahoma City is winning at home by an average of +7.3PPG which is the 10th best number in the NBA. When playing without rest the Clippers are 7-12 SU since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG. The Clippers typically beat teams by shooting a high percentage but that will be tough to do tonight against an OKC team that is 2nd in opponents FG% overall and 9th in defending the 3-point line. The Thunder also shoot it just as well as the Clippers from beyond the arc (4th) and overall (4th). The scheduling clearly favors the Thunder at home. |
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12-21-23 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. Washington is coming off a 3-2 win in the shootout last night and the back to back is going to stress the goalie situation for the Capitals. The Blue Jackets are a high-scoring team and the Capitals defense and netminding will be pushed to the limit here. Columbus has seen 7 straight games total at least 7 goals. The Blue Jackets have become a more wide-open free-flowing team and the goal-scoring has picked up as a result. Columbus has played .500 hockey for many weeks now and won 7 of 14 games and averaged scoring 4 goals per game in those 14 games. The issue for the Blue Jackets is that the goal-tending work has really tailed off of late. Columbus has allowed at least 3 goals in 7 of last 8 games. The Capitals also have a goal-tending concern here as their option would be Kuemper playing a 2nd straight game in a B2B which would not be good. The Caps other option (and the expected option) is that Lindgen will get the start tonight. He has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of his last 8 games. In those 6 games, Lindgren allowed an average of 3.5 goals. The goals should be flying here as the Caps are facing a high-scoring Jackets team that is surging right now but, at the same time, Washington's confidence is surging with B2B wins and victories in 4 of last 6 games. Based on the above, we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals in this one given the above and this would translate to at least a 4-3 final. Over is our play here |
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12-21-23 | Jacksonville State v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2.5 | Top | 90-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Little Rock -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Thursday at 3 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot for UALR. They are playing their 3rd straight home game and haven’t been on the road since December 7th. After a rough 1-5 start, Little Rock has turned the corner winning 5 of their last 7 games and 5 of their last 6 at home. They are catching Jacksonville State in a tough spot. The Gamecocks play @ Wisconsin last Thursday, then traveled to Texas on Monday to face Tarleton State, and now a few days later they are on the road in Arkansas to play an afternoon game. JSU is coming off an upset win @ Tarleton State on Monday winning by 3 as a 4.5 point dog. They trailed for most of the game in that win (down 12 with 9:00 minutes remaining) and took their first lead of the 2nd half with barely over 2:00 minutes remaining. They still were down with under 40 seconds left before pulling out the win. Now traveling again after that come from behind win could be tough for JSU today. UALR has played well at home with a 6-2 SU & ATS mark so far this season. They are averaging 82 PPG at home with a +7 PPG point differential. They are hitting 49% of their shots at home this season and nearly 40% of their triples. They will be facing a fatigued JSU offense that simply isn’t a very good shooting team that ranks 266th in eFG% and makes less than 30% of their 3’s. We’ll lay the small number with the home team on Thursday afternoon. |
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12-20-23 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -2.5 over Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This isn’t a true home game for UNC but it’s being played in Charlotte so the crowd will be heavily in favor of the Heels. They are sort of in must win mode coming off back to back losses vs UConn and Kentucky, both on neutral courts. Those aren’t the only 2 high level teams UNC has played this year as their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the country per KenPom. They have solid wins vs Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Sooners are undefeated but they’ve played an ultra easy slate ranking 336th in SOS. They have played 7 home games and just 3 neutral site games. This will be the closest thing to a true road game Oklahoma has played this season. Half of their opponents this season currently rank 295th or lower while North Carolina hasn’t played a single team ranked that low and more than half of their games (6) have come vs teams inside the top 100. The Sooners have very good overall defensive numbers, however we need to account for their weak schedule when sifting through that. They have faced only 3 offenses currently ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency and the average offensive efficiency of the 10 teams they’ve faced is 202nd. Now they take on a Tar Heel team that ranks 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and is averaging 85 PPG on the season. Offensively, Oklahoma has put up some big numbers at home this year (vs mainly poor competition) but in their 3 games away from home (all neutral court) they’ve been held below their PPP season average. That was vs 3 defensive teams (Iowa, Arkansas, and USC) who’s defensive efficiency numbers are not as good as this UNC team. We feel this is just a really good spot for Carolina needing a win after a few losses vs a team that has padded their early season record vs a poor SOS. Lay the small number. |
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12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets -3 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:10 PM ET - We have admittedly been slow to get on the Rockets bandwagon but will side with them tonight at home against the Hawks. If you haven’t been paying attention, the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home and the only loss came back in the first week of the season to Golden State. They have beaten some of the best teams in the league at home including: the Kings (twice) Lakers, Pelicans, Nuggets (twice) and Thunder. Houston’s average Margin of Victory at home is 4th best in the NBA at +12.8PPG. The Hawks have OK road numbers with an average MOV of +0.5PPG and a 6-6 SU record but most recently they’ve struggled with a 2-6 SU record in their last eight road contests. Their last four road wins have come against teams with losing records with 2 of those coming at the Spurs and at Washington, two of the worst teams in the league. Houston is coming off a 3-game road stint with a win in Memphis and two tightly contested losses in Milwaukee and Cleveland. Atlanta has been a fade team all season long with a 6-20 ATS record while the Rockets are 16-7-1 ATS. We expect that trend to continue tonight and will back Houston. |
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12-20-23 | Nuggets -4 v. Raptors | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - Toronto used to have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Raptors are 8-7 SU with an average point differential of +1.4PPG. In their last five games at home, they have a pair of unimpressive wins against poor teams such as Charlotte and Atlanta and losses to good teams Miami and New York. Toronto is just 3-4 SU at home against teams with a current winning record. Denver is not a deep team but their starting five is as good as anyone in the NBA. They recently went through a stretch of games without PG Murray but he’s back now and the Nuggets have won 4 of their last five games. Denver has played the 8th toughest schedule yet still has an average point differential of +4.8PPG which is 7th highest in the league. Toronto has faced a much weaker schedule, and their net point differential is -1.7PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency, but the Nuggets hold a big advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency, averaging 1.185PPP compared to the Raptors 1.133PPP. At this price we will back the World Champs minus the points. |
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12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 235 Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The O/U number on this game has ticked up slightly from the opener and we like the added value with an Under wager on this marquee NBA game tonight. Scoring is up as a whole in the NBA with games averaging roughly 230 total points per contest. To get to that lofty total you need several factors including pace of play, a poor defense or great offense. In this match up we have the Warriors who rank 13th in pace of play at 99.7 possessions per game, Boston ranks 23rd. The Celtics are 7th in offensive efficiency but the Warriors rank 15th in OEFF. Defensively the Celtics are 4th in defensive efficiency and allow 109PPG. Golden State is 17th in DEFF and give up 115PPG. When playing away from home the Celtics tend to play slower and score less at 111.2PPG which is significantly lower than the 123.6PPG they score at home. Golden State also plays at a slower tempo at home compared to when they play on the road and also score and allow less at home. In the two meetings last season these teams combined for 230 and 222 (in regulation) when they faced each other, and they have stayed Under the total in 7 of the last ten meetings overall. The bet here is UNDER! |
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12-19-23 | Lindenwood v. Missouri State -17.5 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#630 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -17.5 over Lindenwood, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for Mizzou State as they enter this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games so should be fully focused on rolling over this bad Lindenwood team. The Bears most recent game was a 1 point loss @ Tulsa, a game they led by 10 with 5:00 minutes remaining. All 4 of MSU’s losses this year have come on the road (7-4 overall record) and their home winning margin is +13.5 PPG. Three of their four home opponents were ranked inside the top 200 while Lindenwood is currently ranked 333rd (out of 362). Lindenwood is also in a tough spot coming off a rare road win @ IUPUI who is ranked 359th or the 4th worst team in the country. The Lions were 0-4 on the road coming into that game vs a terrible IUPUI team and they lost those 4 games by an average margin of -28 PPG. Lindenwood has now won only 3 of their last 21 road games dating back to the start of last year and 13 of those losses have come by double digits. They are bad on both ends of the court ranking 343rd in offensive efficiency and 285th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are a poor offensive team that averages only 60 PPG on the road this season and they rank outside the top 300 in FG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Missouri State defense that has been outstanding 14th in the nation in eFG% defense and top 35 in both 2 point FG and 3 point FG percentage defense. On offense the Bears are averaging 85 PPG at home and hitting nearly 49% of their shots. Now facing a Lindenwood defense that allows over 80 PPG on the road. This one should be a blowout. |
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12-18-23 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 247 | Top | 131-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 247 Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings, 8:15 PM ET - The Wizards are in a tough spot here having played last night in Phoenix. Tonight’s game will also be their 3rd game in four days. Washington is a team that really struggles on the defensive end of the court and we know that ‘s where most of your energy should be spent. The Wiz are last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and 126.3PPG. They have allowed 130+ in 6 of their last ten games, 140 or more twice. Washington wants to play fast with the 2nd highest possession rate in the NBA. The Kings are going to score in this game and could easily get to that 130 number. Sacramento is 11th in pace and 14th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are averaging the 9th most points per game at 116.3PPG and are coming off a pair of games scoring 128 and 125. It’s a big number, but we like this game to reach 250+ total points. |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 45 Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - The injury/illness status of Eagles QB Hurts is the big news here as he is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. The Seahawks have their own QB injury to worry about as Geno Smith has a pulled groin and may not play tonight either. That means it could be a showdown between backups Marcus Mariota for Philly and Drew Lock for the Seahawks. We are still betting Over the total with the reserve QB’s. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive numbers when it comes to DVOA ratings. Defensively both are in the bottom third of the NFL with the Eagles ranking 22nd while the Seahawks are 24th. Offensively though both ae in the top half of the league with Seattle 12th and Philly 8th. In their last three games the Eagles defense has been exposed allowing 33+ points in three straight and 4 of their last six games. Seattle hasn’t been any better, allowing 28, 41 and 31-points in their last three games. Both teams give up 5.7 yards per play (24th) and over 350YPG. Seattle allows 24.5PPG which ranks 25th in the NFL while the Eagles allow 24.7PPG (28th). We are expecting both teams to get into the mid-20’s here. Bet Over! |
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12-18-23 | Jacksonville State v. Tarleton St UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
#881/882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Tarleton State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Defense is definitely the strength of these 2 teams. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense allowing right around 62 PPG. Offensively both of these teams struggle to make shots ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. JSU has played only 4 teams this year that have a defensive efficiency rank inside the top 200. They have not topped 60 points in any of those games and they averaged just 56 PPG. Tarleton State hasn’t played a defense with a pulse since November and in their 5 games vs defenses ranked inside the top 200 in efficiency they are averaging 65 PPG. We expect very few possessions this game as both are slow paced (313th and 322nd in possession per game). Both are very deliberate on offense especially with each averaging 19 seconds per possession which ranks them 335th in the nation. Three point shots will be kept at a minimum in this one as neither relies heavily on the deep ball. JSU averages 16 three point attempts per game and TSU averages 15 ranking them 335th and 344th respectively. When the do take a shot from beyond the arc, they are hitting just 30% (both teams) which is not good. Lastly, neither team gets to the FT line very often so we should be getting very few points with the clock stopped. Defenses and slow pace rule here so we grab the Under. |
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12-18-23 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -3 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 56 m | Show |
#202 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion -3 over Western Kentucky, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - This WKY beat only 1 bowl team all season long (South Florida) and now they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal including nearly their entire starting offensive line opting to move on. There is now talk that starting QB Reed may also sit this game out but nothing definitive on that yet. If it happens this line will go up so play it now at -2.5 (line as of Friday). Even when they had their entire team in tact, the Hilltoppers were 1-7 SU vs bowl teams, were outscored by an average of 12 PPG in those games and outgained by nearly 130 YPG. With all the turnover we’re not sure this team is all that excited to be here. ODU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be in this bowl game and fought like crazy to get here. They played a solid schedule with 10 bowl teams and they won 4 of those games. In their home finale, a game they needed for bowl eligibility, the Monarchs trailed Georgia State 19-0 at half and fought back for a 25-24 win. They’ve only been in 2 bowl games in their history, the most recent a few years ago in 2021. We expected ODU to control the trenches in this game even before WKY lost nearly their entire offensive line. The Monarchs rushed for an impressive 183 YPG vs bowl teams and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that ranks 123rd at stopping the run and vs bowl teams they allowed 243 YPG on the ground. Meanwhile Western barely averages 100 YPG rushing and ODU’s defense allowed just 3.4 YPC vs other bowl teams. Old Dominion played the tougher schedule, the 2 teams had very similar YPG & YPP differential, and the Monarchs team is more in tact right now when compared to Western Kentucky. We’ll lay the small number in this one. |
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12-17-23 | Rockets +7 v. Bucks | Top | 119-128 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +7 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Milwaukee and back a red hot Rockets team. Houston has won 5 straight games and that includes a pair of wins over OKC and Denver. This Rockets team is tenacious defensively ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.082 points per possession. In comparison the Bucks rank 23rd. The Bucks have won three straight and 8 of their last ten but take a look at who they’ve played. Milwaukee has not faced a defense of this caliber since November 22nd at Boston and they lost by 3-points. In their last ten games the Bucks have faced 8 teams that rank in the bottom third of the NBA in total defense. Milwaukee has played THE easiest schedule in the NBA, the Rockets have faced the 12th toughest. Grab the points with Houston. |
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12-17-23 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Green Bay Packers -3 or -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM ET - Everyone who watched the Monday night game will be jumping off the Packers bandwagon here but we like the situation to ‘buy low’ on Green Bay. We expect the Packers to bounce back off that ugly showing and play as they did in the three previous games. Green Bay has also won 3 straight at home against the Rams, Chargers and Chiefs. The Bucs are coming off a huge win over the Falcons in a game that they were thoroughly outplayed. Tampa Bay was outgained 290 to 434 by Atlanta and averaged 4.3 yards per play which was a full 2.0 less YPP than the Falcons. The Bucs defense is decimated with injuries right now and it’s shown on the field as they allow 5.6YPP (27th), 363YPG (27th) and can’t stop the pass giving up the 30th most passing yards per game at 264YPG. The Packers are averaging the 9th most passing YPG over their last 3 games and have put up the 9th most total YPG in that same time frame. The Bucs rank in the lower third of the NFL in most key offensive categories including total YPG, yards per play, yards per rush and rank 20th in passing YPG. In their last three home games, the Packers defense has allowed 20-points or less and they have much better statistics at Lambeau than on the road. We like the Packers at home by double-digits. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns UNDER 38 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38 Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - We get a pair of solid defenses here and two very average offenses in what shapes up to be a low scoring affair. The Browns hemorrhage points on the road but have been much better at home where they allow 12.6PPG which is best in the league. Last week the 27-points scored by the Jags was misleading as they managed under 300-total yards in the game and scored a late TD with 1:33 remaining. The Browns have certainly gotten a boost from veteran QB Flacco, but he has a very low QBR of 41.5 with 5 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Let’s also consider the two games he’s played in have come against the Rams and Jags who rank 20th and 31st in passing YPG allowed. The addition of DL Sweat has bolstered the Bears pass rush which is averaging 2.7 sacks per game over their last three so expect plenty of pressure on the immobile Flacco. The Bears defense has been rising in the stat charts in recent weeks and currently sit 13th in yards per play allowed at 5.2YPP. In their last three games they are giving up just 4.9YPP defensively. We don’t expect Chicago to put up a big number here offensively against this Browns D. Chicago is 22nd in yards per play at 5.2YPP, rank 21st in total yards per game and average 20.8PPG which is 20th. The Browns allow the fewest yards per game in the league, 3rd fewest yards per play, rank 11th in rushing D and 1st in passing D. This game has that 17-14 type outlook. Bet Under. |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -4 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - Getting very solid value here with Detroit in our opinion. They’ve had their struggles the last few weeks but let’s remember just a few weeks ago they were 8 point home favorites vs Green Bay and now the Lions are laying -4 (current line as of Thursday) vs Denver. We actually have GB power rated about 1 point higher than the Broncos right now so you can see the value with Detroit. The Lions are in must win mode at home coming off a loss last week @ Chicago (we were on Chicago) and the Packers just 2 games behind. Detroit has been much better at home this season with a YPP differential of +1.2 (on the road they are +0.1) and a YPG differential of +113. In their 2 home losses vs Green Bay and Seattle, the Lions outgained both of those opponents but they were -6 in turnover differential which makes it almost impossible to win. The Lions are averaging over 400 YPG at home and QB Goff has been much better at Ford Field completing 70% of his attempts for an average of 275 YPG through the air. Denver is on a 6-1 SU run which we feel has pushed them into overvalued range. In those 6 wins they benefited greatly from turnovers (+14 TO margin in those 6 games alone) but they were outgained in half those wins. This is the Broncos third straight road game having played @ Houston and @ LA Chargers the last 2 weeks. They have the 2nd worst road YPP differential in the NFL at -1.90. In their win over the Chargers last week, Denver caught another break when LA QB Herbert was injured in the 2nd quarter and out the remainder of the game. Despite their 6-1 record, Denver’s offense hasn’t been great during that stretch averaging less than 5.0 YPP in 5 of 7 games. We like Detroit to bounce back from last week’s loss @ Chicago and pick up a solid home win. |
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12-16-23 | Hawks v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -2 or -2.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Hawks are in a tough scheduling situation here having played and won in Toronto on Friday night. This will be the second night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. Cleveland has lost 4 straight games, but they’ve come against Miami, Orlando and Boston twice. The Cavs suffered a blow in their last game, losing PG Garland for the foreseeable future with a jaw injury. But LeVert is more than capable of filling in for Garland and also expect Donovan Mitchell to step up to the task. The Hawks hold the offensive advantage, but the Cavs are that much better defensively ranking 8th in defensive efficiency compared to the Hawks at 28th. With this low number we are basically just asking the Cavs to win this game outright and they are 38-18 SU at home since the start of last season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.8PPG. Atlanta is 25-33 SU their last 58 road games with a negative differential of minus -1.1PPG. Atlanta playing without rest is 5-12 SU their last 17, minus -2.4PPG. Let’s back the shorthanded Cavs at home in desperation mode. |
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12-16-23 | UCLA v. Boise State UNDER 48 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
#209/210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 48 Points – Boise State vs UCLA, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams lost their starting QB’s to the transfer portal with UCLA’s Moore heading to Michigan and Boise’s Green heading to Arkansas. The Bruins did rotate QB’s with Moore this season, however Garbers (the back up) injured his shoulder in their season finale vs Cal. Looks like he will play but even so, UCLA’s offense was a train wreck down the stretch. This offense scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games including vs defenses ranked 109th (Cal) and 92nd (Arizona State). This is a run heavy offense (15th in the country in rushing attempts per game) that might be without the top RB Steele who has been held out of practice due to an injury. Boise’s offense was lights out at the end of the season but we’re expecting a huge tail off here as they are down to their 3rd string QB, CJ Tiller, a freshman who has never taken a collegiate snap. He’ll be facing a UCLA defense that is by far the best and most athletic stop unit the Broncos have faced this season. The Bruins rank in the top 10 in the country in most defensive categories and they’ve allowed only 3 opponents to top 20 points this season. Boise’s defense was poor early in the season but after head coach Avalos was fired (hearing players didn’t like him at all) they really played well holding 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. Both teams average over 40 rush attempts per game (both top 25 in that stat) which eats clock and shortens games. We expect that here especially with the uncertainty at QB for both sides. This one stays Under the Total |
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12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -5 over UNLV, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix, Arizona. We’re getting some value with St Mary’s at this point in the season mainly because their record is just 5-5. Let’s keep in mind they’ve played a brutally tough schedule thus far (16th SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently sitting in the top 75 per KenPom. The Gaels return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes from a team that was 27-8 last season and beat VCU in round 1 of the NCAA tourney before losing to eventual National Champions UConn. STM has now had a full week off and has some solid momentum after beating an undefeated Colorado State team on the road last Saturday. That was a CSU team that had 5 top 100 wins already this season including W’s vs Washington, Creighton, and Colorado. Impressive win for St Mary’s to go on the road and beat that team. Saturday they are facing a UNLV team that is coming off a gigantic home win on Wednesday vs Creighton and now traveling just a few days after that win. The Rebels hit 52% of their shots in that game and 45% from deep. The Jays, normally a great shooting team, had an off night 8 of their 29 three point attempts. That was an aberration in our opinion as UNLV is NOT a good defensive team. They rank outside the top 300 in eFG% allowed and are near the bottom of college basketball defending the arc (343rd). St Mary’s should have a huge edge defensive as they rank 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Gaels should also dominate the glass ranking 21st nationally in offensive rebounding facing a UNLV team that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Rebs have only played 3 teams currently ranked inside the top 100 and lost 2 of those. St Mary’s will be the 2nd highest rated team UNLV has played this season. Lay the small number with the Gaels |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
#207 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State -3.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - NMSU has been a cover machine this season with a spread record of 10-3-1. Their head coach, Jerry Kill (former Minnesota head coach), has done a masterful job including keeping his team motivated late in the season when they really didn’t have anything to play for. The Aggies final 2 games of the season were “meaningless” so to speak as they had already locked up a spot in the CUSA Championship game and were bowl eligible. In their final 2 regular season games they beat Auburn on the road 31-10 as 24+ point underdogs. It wasn’t flukey at all as they outgained the Tigers by 200 yards and ran the ball for 213 yards on the SEC defense! The week after was a PERFECT letdown spot playing a solid Jacksonville State team with the CUSA Title game on deck and having just beaten Auburn on the road. They won that game as well never trailing and outgaining Jax St by 122 yards. Impressive to say the least. The Aggies did lose in the CUSA to an undefeated Liberty team but even in that game NMSU put up 500 total yards in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter. This game is in Albuquerque so a semi home game for the Aggies who are thrilled to be here. We’re not so sure Fresno feels the same way. This game was undefeated in early October and won 7 of their first 8 games and had Mountain West title hopes on their minds. They tanked down the stretch losing 3 in a row to close out the season and getting topped ATS in all 3 games by a combined 73 points! Two of those losses came vs a pair of teams that finished the year with 4-8 records, New Mexico and San Diego State by 8 and 15 points respectively. Their head coach Jeff Tedford will not be coaching in this bowl game and they have a couple of key injuries on the offensive and defensive lines. NMSU should control the trenches here as their running game averages over 200 YPG on 5.8 YPC (4th in the country) facing an Bulldog defense that ranks 98th vs the run. The Aggies average 7.0 YPP on the season (9th nationally) and they have a YPP differential of +1.0 compared to Fresno who is dead even in that category (5.5 YPP offense / 5.5 YPP defense). New Mexico State is absolutely the more motivated team here and we like them to cover this number. |
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12-15-23 | Senators v. Stars OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars, Friday at 8:07 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. Ottawa is coming off a 4-2 loss at St Louis last night and the back to back is going to stress the goalie situation for the Senators. The Stars are a high-scoring team and the Senators defense and netminding will be pushed to the limit here. Dallas has seen 11 of the last 14 games total at least 7 goals. This is not like the Dallas teams of old that played tight defensive-minded hockey. Instead, the Stars have become a more wide-open free-flowing team and the goal-scoring has picked up as a result. Dallas has averaged scoring 4 goals per game in the last 14 games. The issue for the Stars is that the goal-tending work of Jake Oettinger has really tailed off since he had a strong start to the season. Oettinger has allowed at least 3 goals in each of his last 4 games. The Senators are a solid scoring club and will be ready to go strong here after the disappointing result at St Louis last night in which the Blues were ready to respond after firing their head coach. The Senators had averaged 4 goals scored per game in their 4 games prior to the tough result at St Louis last night. They should enjoy success against a Stars club that has allowed 22 goals in the last 5 matches! This is not only a non-divisional but also non-conference match-up and that also lends itself to a more free-flowing affair. Based on the recent trending for each club, we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals in this one given the above and this would translate to at least a 4-3 final. Over is our play here |
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12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -6 | Top | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - These same two team met in Orlando in late November with the Celtics favored by -5.5-points. The Magic pulled the upset 113-96 when the C’s shot poorly at 41% while the Magic shot above their average at 51%. If Boston was a road favorite of -5.5-points they should be a larger favorite at home where they are 11-0 with an average margin of Victory of plus +15.9PPG. Orlando is 11-2 SU their last 13 games but 8 of those came at home. Their last two road games have been losses by 10 and 28-points. Boston has a big advantage from beyond the arc as the Magic shoot just 34.3% from Deep which ranks 26th in the NBA. Boston is the 13th best FG% shooting team in the NBA and rank 16th from the 3-point line. These two teams are very even defensively but the C’s are much better offensively ranking 7th in OEFF compared to the Magic who rank 18th. Lay the points. |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 259 | Top | 126-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY on 10* UNDER 258.5 or 259 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in the In Season tournament with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks 128-119 as a 5.5-point underdog. There was a fallout in the Bucks locker room after the game regarding their defensive intensity, so we are expecting a much better effort on that end of the court tonight. The Bucks were the 4th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA a year ago allowing just 1.090 points per possession but have dropped to 23rd this season. Milwaukee is not that bad defensively, so we are expecting a trend up in this defensive category as the season wears on. Even with the Pacers being one of the fastest paced teams in the league and the most efficient offensively it will take great shooting and a lot of possession to eclipse tonight’s O/U number. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined for 198 field goal attempts, and both shot above 45% and the game finished with 247 total points. There have been roughly 339 NBA games played this season and only 24 of those games have finished with more total points being scored than tonight’s Over-Under. We are clearly betting the value and Under in this one. |
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12-13-23 | Pelicans v. Wizards OVER 241 | Top | 142-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 241 New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - Even if Zion Williamson can’t play tonight, we like this game Over. The Wizard routinely give up 130 or more points and if the Pels get to that number this game goes Over the total easily. Washington has allowed 130+ in 7 of their last ten games and 4 of their last five. They rank last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and points allowed per game at 126.3PPG. We know we will get plenty of possessions in this game as the Wiz rank 2nd in pace of play, the Pelicans are above average at 12th. New Orleans is 12th in DEFF but in their last five games they haven’t been as good on that end of the court ranking 22nd. It’s a given the Pelicans are going to score here but we obviously need Washington to put up points also and they should. Washington is 6th in team field goal percentage at 48.2%, and 10th in scoring at 115.6PPG. New Orleans gives up 113.9PPG which is the 18th highest number in the NBA. We expect plenty of points in this game and will play Over. |
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12-12-23 | Warriors v. Suns -3 | Top | 116-119 | Push | 0 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 vs Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We are making this wager with the assumption that Kevin Durant will be in the lineup tonight against his former team. These team have very similar efficiency stats with the Suns allowing 1.149 points per possession compared to the Warriors 1.146PPP. Offensively the Suns rank 9th in OEFF, the Warriors are 13th. This is difficult to comprehend but the Warriors currently rank 25th in the NBA in shooting at 45.2% and hit 36.7% from beyond the Arc which is 13th and well below the Warriors standards. Golden State will have a hard time shooting it tonight against a Suns team that is 9th best in opponents FG% overall and 6th defending the 3-point line. Phoenix is the 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and 15th overall at 47.5%. The Warriors do defend the 3 well allowing just 34.2% but with the potential return of Bradley Beal it will be tough to defend all the shooters the Suns can run at them. Two of the Warriors cornerstone scorers are really struggling right now as Wiggins and Thompson can’t seem to find their shooting stokes. The Suns have beaten this Warriors team twice already this season including an 8-point win on this floor in late November. |
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12-12-23 | Oral Roberts +13 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
#617 ASA TOP PLAY ON Oral Roberts +13 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - ORU is a very good mid major program coming off a 30-5 record a year ago. They did lose some players off that team but still have 2 solid starters back and we have the power rated as the 2nd best team in the Summit League. Their head coach from last season moved onto Wichita State but ORU hired his head assistant so the systems are still in place. They have played 2 high level Power 6 teams to the wire on the road this season losing at Texas A&M by 8 and at Kansas State in OT. The Golden Eagles have tested themselves early playing the 35th most difficult schedule (KenPom SOS ratings) and they won’t be intimidated here. Texas Tech has a new head coach (from North Texas), new systems, and they’ve overhauled nearly their entire roster from last season. The Red Raiders have a big game on deck Saturday vs SEC’s Vanderbilt so they might be peaking ahead to that game. They aren’t a great shooting team ranking 151st in eFG% and they struggle from beyond the arc hitting only 32%. Tech also lost one of their top players for the season, Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), to a season ending injury in their most recent game. Oral Roberts can make 3’s (over 10 per game ranking 15th nationally) and they turn the ball over at a mere 13% rate (11th nationally). They have the ingredients to make this a very dangerous game for Texas Tech. This ORU program has lost a TOTAL of 4 regular season games by more than 10 points since the start of the 2021 season. Take the points here. |
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12-11-23 | Nets v. Kings OVER 234.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234.5 Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - Brooklyn’s strength offensively is shooting the 3-ball as they are the best in the league in that department at 38.7%. The Kings don’t defend the 3 well allowing 37.5% 3PT shooting by opponents which is 24th in the NBA. Sacramento is more of a volume team as the 11th fastest paced team in the NBA and the 12th most efficient. You won’t find either of these teams in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings either as the Kings rank 20th, the Nets are 17th. The Kings score an average of 120PPG at home while the Nets allow 120PPG on the road. Brooklyn is averaging 120PPG away from home and the Kings give up 119PPG. The Kings are on a 7-2 Over streak at home this season and are on a 34-19 Over run at home dating back to the start of last season. Now that Brooklyn is healthy the offense has started to click with 128, 129, 114 and 124 points in their last four games. With the added rest we like both teams to be fresh and expect the offenses to be locked in. Bet OVER! |
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12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants UNDER 37 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 37 Green Bay Packers at NY Giants, Monday 8:15 PM ET - The NFL Under trends and specifically Prime Time TV Unders will continue on Monday night when the Packers and Giants square off in the Meadowlands. Let’s put aside the Under record on MNF of 13-2 on the season and focus on the two teams involved and the given situation. Both teams have struggled to score points this season, especially the Giants who average 13.3PPG on the year. Green Bay is considered ‘average’ in scoring at 21.5PPG. It takes the Giants 19.5 yards gained to score 1-point and Green Bay 15.3 yards gained for a point. Both teams are hovering around average in pace of play, so it won’t be a high possession game. The Packers are below average in total yards per game at 329YPG, rank 13th in yards per play at 5.6, 20th in rushing YPG and 18th in passing YPG. The Giants offensive numbers are brutal as they rank last in the league in yards per game gained, 31st in yards per play, 18th in rushing and 32nd in passing yards. Defensively the Packers allow 20.2PPG which is below the league average of 21.7PPG. The Giants are allowing 24.3PPG but they’ve also faced some of the league highest scoring offenses with two games against the Cowboys, one versus Miami, San Fran and Buffalo. Green Bay is on a 6-3 Under streak their last nine games and the Giants have stayed under in 17 of their last eighteen at home. With potential high winds and adverse conditions, we like a low scoring game here. |
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12-10-23 | Broncos +3 v. Chargers | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
#123 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Broncos come into this game off a 17-22 loss in Houston last week. Denver has won five of their last six games including wins against the Packers, Bills and Chiefs. Last week the Broncos defense held the Texans offense to 5.6 yards per play and 353 total yards which are less than their season averages of 5.8YPP and 373YPG. The Broncos defense is allowing 6.0YPP and 385YPG on the season but in their last three games that number dips to 5.0YPP and 335YPG. In our opinion the Chargers may be the biggest ‘fraud’ in the NFL this season. The five Bolts wins have come against the Patriots, Jets, Bears, Raiders and Vikings who have a combined 21 wins this season. The LA defense is near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every key category ranking 29th in total yards per game allowed (380), 29th in yards per play allowed (6.0), 17th against the run and 31st in passing yards per game allowed. Now take into consideration some of the offenses/quarterbacks they’ve faced including the Jets, Raiders, Patriots and Bears who all rank 25th or worse in offensive DVOA. The Denver offense has scored 20+ points in 8 of their last eleven games and QB Russell Wilson is quietly putting together a very nice season with 2,385 passing yards and 21 TD’s to 7 INT’s. Wilson has also added 310 rushing yards this season and has picked up crucial 1st downs with his feet when needed. Last season the two games between these two teams were decided by 3-points each. Grab the points here with Denver who wins by 3. |
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12-10-23 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-25 | Win | 100 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40.5 Points - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the first meeting of the season when the O/U was 37.5 and the two teams involved for 29 total points. So that game stays under a lower total and this number goes up? In the earlier meeting the Falcons racked up over 400 yards of total offense at 6.3 yards per play. The Bucs had 329 total yards of offense at 5.1YPP. There were several red zone opportunities by each team that didn’t result in points including a pair of potential TD’s by the Falcons. Atlanta fumbled at the 1-yard line and fumbled into the endzone for a touchback costing them 14-points. Tampa Bay also threw an interception at the 11-yard line as they were going into score. The Falcons gave up 8-points to the Jets last time out but that was the Jets. Prior to that game this defense allowed only 15-points to the Saints but New Orleans had 440+ total yards of offense which should have led to more points. Prior to that game the Falcons had allowed 25, 31 and 28 points in three straight games. Offensively the Birds had scored 23+ points in 4 straight games before managing just 13 against a good Jets defense in rainy conditions. Tampa Bay has put up 20+ points in 4 of their last five games and the only game they didn’t was against the best defense in the NFL at San Francisco. Defensively the Bucs aren’t as good as their reputation ranking 14th in DVOA (ATL is 25th). The Bucs gave up just 18-points last week to Carolina but the Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL. Before that game the Bucs had allowed 27 to the Colts and 49ers. In the second meeting of the same season between these two teams they have gone Over the number in 4 straight with every one of those games finishing with 47 or more points. |
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12-09-23 | TCU v. Clemson +1 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
#664 ASA PLAY ON Clemson pick-em over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Toronto - Both teams step into this game undefeated but we have a huge strength of schedule difference between these 2 teams thus far. The Tigers have faced the 50th most difficult slate so far and have 4 top 85 wins including impressive road wins over Alabama and Pittsburgh. In their win @ Bama the Tigers made 10 fewer FT’s (attempted 11 fewer) and STILL won by 8 points over a Crimson Tide team that came into the game on a 20 game home winning streak. TCU is also unbeaten but their SOS thus far ranks 362nd which is the easiest slate so far in the entire country. The Horned Frogs haven’t played a single team ranked inside the top 175 while Clemson has played only 1 team ranked outside the top 175. Every opponent TCU has faced is currently ranked 270th or lower with the exception of Georgetown who ranks 176th and is the 2nd worst team in the Big East ahead of only DePaul. In their game @ Georgetown, TCU’s only game away from home this season, they barely topped the Hoyas 84-83. Both of these teams have shot the ball very well this season (both in the top 25 in eFG%), the problem is TCU has faced FIVE defenses (7 games played this season) vs teams ranked outside the top 300 in efficiency and not a single defense ranked higher than 225th. Meanwhile, Clemson has just played 3 straight teams with defensive efficiency ranks inside the top 100. Despite their weak slate, TCU has struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.2% (267th nationally) and Clemson has hit 41% of their triples this season (7th nationally). The Tigers rarely turn the ball over (36th nationally) and are very good on the defensive boards (27th nationally) which takes away TCU’s strengths of creating turnovers and offensive rebounding. Clemson’s tough schedule has prepared them for this moment while TCU is stepping WAY up in class compared to their previous opponents. Clemson wins this one. |
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12-09-23 | Grand Canyon v. Liberty -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -4.5 over Grand Canyon, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Tough spot here for Grand Canyon traveling to the east coast after pulling a huge, court storming win over San Diego State at home on Tuesday. This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season and by far their furthest travel thus far. The Antelopes only other road game was at UT Rio Grande Valley who is rated outside the top 300 per KenPom. Liberty is at home for the 2nd straight game after crushing Mississippi Valley State on Tuesday by 35 and the Flames were able to spread their minutes out nicely so they should be fresh here. Speaking of home, Liberty Arena has been very good to the Flames who’ve won 20 straight games here including topping Villanova last season. Liberty has a number of solid top 140 wins this year beating Wichita State, Furman, Charlotte, and Vermont, all away from home on neutral courts. Their losses have come vs FAU (top 20 team) and Charleston both away from home. While Grand Canyon has played all home games but 1, this Liberty team is 7-2 despite playing only 3 home games so far this season. The Flames return 4 starters from a team that finished with a 27-9 record last year. This veteran team has really shot the ball well (16th nationally in eFG%) and they are facing a Grand Canyon team that struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.5% (276th nationally). The Antelopes rely heavily on getting to the FT line with a whopping 28% of their points this year coming from the stripe (2nd most nationally). They may struggle to get calls on the road in this one and Liberty does very well at limiting fouls. Liberty plays a very slow tempo and should control the pace at home here which should take Grand Canyon out of their game as they love to play fast. This is a really solid situation to lay a small number with a very good team at home. Take Liberty |
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12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two teams and the Thunder have already won 2 of the three. If you bet these two teams based on their logos or history, you’ll probably be on the Warriors, but the facts of the matter are, OKC is the better team right now. Golden State stands 10-10 SU on the season and it’s a bye product of two things, poor shooting and lack of defense. The Warriors were 4th in effective FG% a year ago but currently rank 22nd this season. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins are broke right now as Thompson is shooting a career low 39.7% overall and 34.8% from deep. Wiggins has a career shooting average of 44.9% overall and 35.2% from deep but he’s hitting just 42.3% and 26.2% this season. Last year the Warriors were 10th in offensive efficiency at 1.118PPP. This season they rank 14th at 1.107PPP. Golden State has slipped defensively, also ranking 15th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.140PPP. Oklahoma City is the 4th best team in the NBA in offensive efficiency and average 119.6PPG with the 3rd best EFG% at 56.2%. The Thunder also play defense with the 7th best DEFF rating in the league and hold foes to the second lowest FG% in the league at 43.7%. The Thunder are a solid home team with a 30-21 SU record dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.3PPG. Golden State is 17-40 SU their last 57 road games with a negative differential of minus -3.7PPG. OKC is coming off a loss on the road to Houston and will be up for this home date with Golden State. Lay it! |
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12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago +1.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 55-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
#887 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have UIC a slight favorite here so value with the Flames as an underdog. They’ve been undervalued all season with a 6-1 mark ATS. UIC as played the much tougher schedule (ranked 118th SOS by KenPom) having faced 4 teams (half of their games) vs teams ranked inside the top 180. Jax State has played the 317th ranked SOS per KenPom and prior to this game vs Illinois Chicago they have played a total of ONE team vs a team ranked inside the top 180 and that was a 13 point loss. Per KenPom’s ratings, the Flames will be the best team Jacksonville State has faced this season (UIC ranked 124th) and the Gamecocks have already lost 4 games vs teams ranked outside the top 200. That includes 2 home game losses vs team ranked 200 or lower. The Flames have had a full week off after back to back losses UNC Greensboro (by 1 point) and vs Illinois State (by 5 points) so we expect them to be very focused on this one. Despite playing the tougher schedule, Illinois Chicago is better on both ends of the court. The Flames average 1.03 PPP offensively while allowing just 0.99 PPP on defense compared to Jax State who averaged 1.01 PPP while giving up 1.03 PPP. UIC has been fantastic defensively all season ranking 15th in eFG% allowed and 2nd nationally guarding the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 23% from deep. They should have their way on that end of the court vs a Gamecock offense that is outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, FT%, and scoring. We’ll take the better team getting points with motivation off 2 straight losses. |
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12-07-23 | Maple Leafs -129 v. Senators | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NHL game rotation #7: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) over Ottawa Senators, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Senators are off a huge upset win over the Rangers on Tuesday! Speaking of upsets, Ottawa also beat the Maple Leafs in Toronto earlier this season. This is a divisional game and the Leafs are set for revenge here. Toronto enters this game well rested as their last game was a home loss in overtime against the Bruins over the weekend. The Maple Leafs hold the rest edge here and have revenge plus the Senators are dead last in the division even though they have only played 5 true road games out of 20 games this season! No team in the NHL has fewer road games than Ottawa. The Senators are home for this game but the point is we are not convinced the Sens are even as strong as their 10-10 record on the season considering they have had a home-heavy schedule. The Sens only have 5 wins in regulation time in their last 16 games and they are yet to lose in OT or the shootout this season. The point is the Senators have been fortunate in terms of scheduling and in terms of good breaks in tight games. This is a great value spot to back one of the stronger teams in the league at a fair price because the Maple Leafs are on the road for this revenge match-up so the price is held to a reasonable level. Toronto goalie Joseph Woll has allowed 3 or less goals in regulation time of each of his last 5 starts and he is also seeking payback here as his worst start of the season was the game against Ottawa. The Senators won the game 6-3 but it was 3-3 in the 3rd period. The road team has won each of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Toronto had won 6 of last 7 meetings before that loss earlier this season and those 6 wins were by a score of 24-11 for an average score of 4-2. We look for the Leafs to resume their long-term dominance here. Great situation with revenge, rest, and also the better special teams. Toronto has been better on the power play and on the penalty kill this season in comparison with the Senators. Road team money line is our play here. |
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12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 5 PM ET - *NOTE THE EARLY TIPOFF* - We like the Bucks big here in this In Season Tourney game. The Pacers are coming off a HUGE home win over the Celtics and fed off the energy from the home crowd. Now the young Pacers are playing on a neutral court against a motivated Bucks team. Milwaukee is starting to figure things out with their new lineup and the addition of Dame Lillard. They beat a very good Knicks team the other night handily at home by 24-points. The Bucks are 10-2 SU their last twelve games while the Pacers check in with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games. This is the second meeting of the season for these two teams with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks at home by 2-points as a 1-point underdog. Milwaukee has beaten this franchise in 8 of the last ten meetings overall. Both teams are highly efficient on the offensive end of the court ranking 1st and 6th in OEFF but the Bucks hold an advantage on the defensive end of the court as the Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee also defends the 3-point line well by holding opponents to 36.3% shooting which is 13th best in the NBA. Conversely, the Pacers allow foes to make 39.1% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 28th and the Bucks own the 6th best 3PT% in the league. Fear the Deer! |
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12-06-23 | Richmond v. Northern Iowa -2 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Iowa -2 over Richmond, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with Richmond favored and quickly flipped to Northern Iowa as a small favorite and we agree. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion as we’re getting a veteran, desperate Panther team at home at near a pick-em. The reason we’re getting some solid value on UNI is because their record is just 2-6 so far this season. They’ve played the 20th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom while Richmond, who has a 5-3 record, has played the 270th most difficult schedule. The Panthers bring back 4 starters and 91% of their minutes from last season and 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents currently rank inside the top 100. They have a solid top 100 win over Stanford 73-51 and nearly beat Texas Tech losing by 2 points. Richmond, on the other hand, has played only 2 teams currently inside the top 125 and lost to both (Boston College & Wichita State). Those were also the Spiders only 2 road games this season losing both by 7 and 12 points. Four of Richmond’s five wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 250 and 3 of those wins were vs teams ranked 315 or lower. The Spiders played host to this match up last year as 6 points favorites and won by 13. However, they lost nearly everyone of note from last year’s team with only 1 starter returning. UNI is off a tough OT loss on Saturday @ Evansville and their last home game was their worst outing of the season (loss to Belmont) so we expect a huge effort in this one. If this game was played a few weeks ago we’d be laying a much larger number with Northern. Take the Panthers at home. |
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12-06-23 | Heat v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Raptors here and predict a double-digit win by the home team. Miami is dealing with two key injuries to Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo which has made them an ‘average’ team at best. The Heat have a positive net rating but have faced the 21st easiest schedule in the NBA. Toronto on the other hand has a slight negative differential but they have faced the 5th toughest schedule in the league this season. Miami is 6-6 SU on the road this season with a +1.8PPG differential. Toronto is 5-4 SU at home with an average MOV of +3.8PPG. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, but the Heat are clearly not at full strength here. The Raptors are coming off a home loss to the Knicks but had won 3 straight at home by 7, 13 and 29-points. Toronto owned Miami last season by winning 3 of the four regular season meetings SU, covering all four. The Raptors are 31-21 ATS at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +4PPG. We like Toronto at home in this one. |
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12-06-23 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - We are surprised this Total opened as high as it did and like the value with an Under wager here. These two teams are known for their defenses as the Magic allow just 1.073 points per possession which ranks 3rd in the league, while the Cavs rank 13th allowing 1.136PPP. Cleveland is the 10th slowest paced team in the league at 98.5 possessions per game. Orlando plays slightly faster at 100.1 possessions p/game. In their last ten games the Magic have recently faced Brooklyn, Washington (2x’s), Charlotte, Indiana and Chicago who all rank 21st or worse in DEFF. Tonight, they face a Cavs team that allows opponents to shoot just 45.3% (7th) and give up the 8th fewest points in the league at 111.2PPG. Orlando isn’t a great offensive team either, ranking 19th in offensive efficiency and they don’t shoot it particularly well from deep at 35.4% which is 21st in the NBA. Cleveland is worse in OEFF ranking 22nd overall and they hit just 34.3% from beyond the Arc which ranks 26th. In four meetings last season these two teams had totals set of 213.5, 223, 217.5 and 215.5, which are all significantly lower than tonight’s O/U. Three of those four games all finished with 212 or less total points. The bet here is UNDER. |
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12-05-23 | North Texas v. Boise State UNDER 123.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
#639/640 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 123.5 Points – North Texas vs Boise State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams that play very slow should lead to a low scoring game here. North Texas is notorious for playing as slow as any team in the country and this year is no different as they rank 358th out of 362 teams in average possession per game at 64. Boise State is right near the bottom as well in that statistic ranking 301st at 68 possessions per game. Both teams rank inside the top 65 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing less than 1.0 PPP. Both also rank outside the top 115 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in field goals made per game. Boise has played 6 games vs Division 1 opponents and only 2 of those have topped 126 total points. Those games were vs Va Tech and Clemson who rank inside the top 65 nationally in offensive efficiency. UNT has scored 79 points in each of their last 2 games but one was vs Angelo State and the other vs Mississippi Valley State who ranks 355th in defensive efficiency. Prior to that they played 3 straight neutral site games and averaged just 59 PPG in those games. What impressed us was in their neutral site games they faced 2 efficient offenses who are fast paced and held them to 53 points (St Johns) and 66 points (LSU). Those 2 games vs much faster paced and better offensive teams than Boise ended with total points scored of 105 and 128 respectively. This one should be a grinder and we’ll grab the Under. |
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12-05-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 122-146 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* NY Knicks +5.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks are still going through the growing pains with their new lineup and the addition of Damian Lillard. Milwaukee is still one of the best teams in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.187 points per possession but defensively they rank 20th after finishing 4th a year ago. New York owns the 8th best DEFF rating allowing 1.108PPP while also ranking 11th in OEFF. The Knicks also have the better overall point differential in the league at plus +3.8PPG, the Bucks average +2.9PPG. New York is one of 12 teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.5PPG. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU at home but their average margin of victory is only +2.7PPG. That is a significant drop from last years average of +5.9PPG at home for the Bucks which was the 6th best in the league. These two teams met in early November on this floor with the Bucks winning 110-105. Since that loss the Knicks have won 10 of their last thirteen games. The last three meetings have been decided by 6-points or less. We expect this game to go down to the wire and will grab the points. |
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12-04-23 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Kings | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - This In Season tournament starts tonight and has two great matchups with one of them being this game between the Pelicans and Kings. The Pelicans are at full strength right now and currently undervalued by the oddsmakers. New Orleans beat this Kings team twice at home in mid-November by 36 and 5-points but played without starting PG CJ McCollum in both. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram carried the scoring load with 105 combined total points in the two games. New Orleans in their last five games own the 12th best offensive efficiency rating and the 4th best defensive efficiency rating. In comparison, the Kings are 13th in OEFF and 16th in DEFF. The Pelicans have thrived as an underdog this season with a 8-3-1 ATS record while the Kings are just 4-7 ATS as a favorite. New Orleans has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Kings and in this tourney opener we like the Dog and the points. |
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12-04-23 | Bengals v. Jaguars -10 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -10 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals offense will have big time problems generating anything in this game with Joe Burrow on the sidelines. Last week vs Pittsburgh the Bengals back up QB Browning had decent numbers (227 yards passing) but he had a number of turnover worthy plays that didn’t turn into turnovers. He threw 1 interception but that could have easily been 3 or 4. The Bengals scored 10 points vs the Steelers and we don’t see them generating any more in this game vs a solid Jacksonville defense (5th DVOA defense). Here’s the problem with Cincinnati’s offense in this game. Not only are the playing an inexperienced back up QB but they can’t run the ball at all (32nd in the NFL) which puts even more pressure on Browning to be perfect. The Jags run defense is 4th in the NFL allowing just 87 YPG so we don’t see Cincinnati’s run offense magically coming alive in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Jags are playing well offensively. They’ve put up 58 points the last 2 weeks combined but it could have been more. Last week vs Houston they averaged 6.5 YPP in a 24-21 win but they crossed into Houston territory on 8 of their 11 possessions. Jacksonville had 445 total yards but averaged only 1 point for every 18.5 yards gained which was well below their season average of 1 point every 14.5 yards gained entering last week. If they hit their yards per point average in that game they would have scored 31 points. Now they face a Cincy defense that ranks dead last in the NFL YPP allowed, 31st in total defense, 29th in rush defense, and 26th in pass defense. Last week Pittsburgh only scored 16 points on this defense but also had over 400 yards. Prior to last week Cincinnati had allowed 30+ points in their previous 2 games. This defense also ranks near the bottom of the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate which should allow the Jags to keep drives alive in this one. Jacksonville has played a tough home slate already facing SF, KC, and Houston, but in their home games vs lower tier opponents they rolled Indianapolis by 17 and Tennessee by 20. We see a similar outcome here. Lay it. |
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12-04-23 | Furman v. Arkansas OVER 158.5 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
#863/864 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 158.5 Points – Furman vs Arkansas, Monday at 8 PM ET - In this one we have 2 of the faster paced teams in the country so we’ll get plenty of offensive possessions. The Razors are 35th in possession per game at 76.4 and Furman is 58th averaging 75.5. Both offenses are averaging over 80 PPG on the season and each defense allows north of 75 PPG. Arkansas has played 5 home games and scored at least 80 in 4 of those games for an average of 84 PPG. They should have plenty of success here vs a Furman defense that ranks 227th in defensive efficiency and 258th in eFG% defense. The Paladins have played 5 games away from home this season (road + neutral games) and they’ve given up at least 78 points in 4 of those games for an average of 82 PPG. Furman can put up points as we discussed and they are very good shooting team hitting nearly 49% of their shots on the season (36th nationally). Not an aberration as they return a number of key players from last year’s team which finished with a 26-8 record and landed in the top 30 in shooting percentage. These teams have combined to play 15 games this season and 12 have gone Over the total. We’ll call for another high scoring game on Monday night. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 PM ET - Philadelphia has faced a tough gauntlet of games including last weeks OT thriller against the Bills. Philly trailed for much of that game but managed a game tying FG with .20 seconds left to send it to OT. In poor conditions the Bills and Eagles put up 61 points in regulation. The Philly defense was shredded for over 500 yards by the Bills last week and have given up 22.4PPG on the season which ranks bottom third in the NFL. The Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per game allowed (341), yards per play (5.5) and are especially vulnerable to the pass ranking 29th in passing YPG given up. They will have a hard time stopping a 49ers offense that is 3rd in yards per game gained, 2nd in yards per play at 6.6, 7th in rushing and 8th in passing YPG. The Niners offense had scored 30+ points in five straight games to start the season then had 3 lower scoring outputs with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup. With his return they have scored 34, 27 and 31-points in three straight games. The Philadelphia offense will face a stiff test versus this top ranked 49er defense, but they have more than enough weapons on that side of the football. Philadelphia ranks top 13 in most key offensive categories including being 3rd in scoring at 28.2PPG. The Eagles have scored 30+ points in 4 of five home games this season and 28+ in all five. It’s not a stretch for both teams to score in the 30’s in this one. |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans -3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Texans -3 vs Denver Broncos, 1:00 PM ET - We have lost value in this game as the number crossed -3 but we still like the Texans in this situation as long as they are under -4. The Broncos have won 5 straight games and certainly played better but we aren’t sold yet. Four of those games came at home and two of those wins came by 3-total points. They were also outgained in four of those five wins. Houston was on a bit of a heater themselves with 3 straight wins prior to last weeks huge loss to the Jaguars. The Texans with CJ Stroud have been a huge surprised this season with a 6-5 SU record with all six wins coming in the last nine games. These teams have identical records, yet the Texans rank 12th in overall DVOA while the Broncos are 22nd. Houston is 12th in offensive DVOA, Denver 12th, the Texans are 20th in defensive DVOA, the Broncos are 32nd. The Texans are averaging 6.0 yards per play which is the 4th best number in the league. Houston is 6th in yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game at 276. The Broncos defense allows 388YPG which is 30th, give up 6.3YPP (31st) and give up the 23rd most passing YPG. Denver wants to run the football with the 8th best rush offense, but Houston stops the run extremely well allowing 3.6 yards per rush which is the 3rd best number in the NFL. Denver has only played 4 road games and they go to Houston where the Texans have won 4 of their last five. The Broncos run comes to an end here. |
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12-02-23 | Louisville +1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
#321 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville +1.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 8 PM ET- Florida State struggled last week @ Florida but knocked off the Gators 24-15 in a game they trailed 12-0 late in the 2nd quarter. Despite the win the Noles were outgained in the game and had only 90 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC compared to 146 yards rushing for the Gators. In their first game after losing starting QB Travis the offense was not impressive. 2nd string QB Rodemaker was underwhelming completing less than 50% of his passes for only 134 yards vs a team that didn’t even qualify for a bowl game. He is dealing with a concussion issue and may not play in this game, if so FSU has 2 very inexperienced QB’s behind Rodemaker. Louisville’s defense as a whole is very good (top 20 nationally) but their run defense is the strength of that unit allowing only 96 YPG on 3.3 YPC (12th best run defense in the country). If FSU struggles to run as they did vs Florida, that puts this game on the back of Rodemaker which will make it tough. The Cards are coming off a loss vs in state rival Kentucky getting outscored 17-7 in the 4th quarter losing 38-31. U of L outgained the Wildcats 403 to 289 in that loss but had 3 turnovers, which led directly to 10 Kentucky points. The Cats also had a 100 yard kick return for TD which was too much to overcome. The Cards are 10-2 on the season and in their 2 losses they outgained their opponents by a combined 833 to 577. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedule and their YPG differential is nearly the same. The difference is FSU did their damage for all but 1 game with their high level QB Travis under center. With him out, we give Louisville the edge here. As an undefeated team that absolutely had to win this game to have any consideration for the CFP, the Seminoles have all the pressure on them in this game. We like the Cards in Charlotte on Saturday night. |
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12-02-23 | Magic v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 101-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The Magic are absolutely cooking right now with 9 straight wins and an overall 14-5 SU record for the season. The last team to beat this Magic teams was this Nets team back on November 14th. Brooklyn catches the Magic in a favorable scheduling situation here as Orlando is playing their second leg of a back to back. Orlando beat Washington last night and will also be playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in seven days. Brooklyn is rested here with their last game coming on Nov. 30th, a home loss which makes this situation even better. The Nets are 3-1 SU their last four games and are finally getting healthy with five of their top six players available tonight. These teams have a similar net rating by our metrics but the Nets have played our 11th toughest schedule compared to the Magics 28th rated. We like the Nets advantage with their 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting versus the Magic’s 17th ranked 3PT% defense. Orlando typically takes advantage of teams by forcing turnovers and turning them into points, but the Nets are 11th in TO’s so they won’t give the Magic that edge. The Nets beat this team at home in mid-November 124-104 and we are betting on a similar outcome today. |
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12-02-23 | George Mason v. Toledo -3.5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Toledo -3.5 over George Mason, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for a solid Toledo team, coming off 3 straight losses, and finally back at home where they normally do damage. The Rockets are one of the top few programs in the MAC with 3 consecutive 20+ win seasons and a 77-28 SU record since the start of the 2021 season. At home they’re nearly unbeatable with a 42-4 SU their last 46 home games. The Rockets have played a very tough schedule to date (77th SOS) and they have lost 3 straight, all to top 75 teams on a neutral court, making this home game very important. Those 3 losses came by 2, 6, and 8 points and they have now had a full week off to stew about their losses and make corrections heading into this home game vs George Mason. The Patriots step into this game with a 6-1 record but are overvalued due to their poor strength of schedule (319th). Four of their seven opponents so far this season are currently ranked outside the top 200 and they have yet to play a true road game. George Mason did play 2 neutral site games losing to Charlotte by 5 and barely getting by South Dakota State by 2 points, both teams ranked lower than this Toledo team per KenPom. The Patriots had a solid 20-13 season last year but they had to replace much of their roster with only 1 starter and 26% of their minutes returning this season. On top of that HC English moved on and is now the head man at Providence and he took 2 of Mason’s top players with him. This is a rematch from last year when George Mason pulled the upset at home as a 3 point dog hitting 51% of their shots in the process. Now we’re getting Toledo at home, at basically the same number, in a perfect situation. Lay the small spread here with the Rockets at home. |
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12-02-23 | Illinois v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
#649/650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 136 Points – Illinois vs Rutgers, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The last 2 years these 2 teams have met twice and the total points scored didn’t reach 130 in either game. We see a similar scenario playing out on Saturday. These were 2 of the top defensive teams in the country last season (both in top 25 in defensive efficiency) and that’s continued this year where they are both currently in the top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. As far as straight defensive FG% these teams are currently #1 and #2 in the nation with the Illini allowing teams to make only 34% of their shots and the Scarlet Knights allowing 34.6%. Illinois has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 60 points or less and only Marquette who plays fast and is the 7th most efficient offense in the country, got to 70 points (71-64 Final). Rutgers has also given up 60 points or less in 4 of their 6 games and the most they’ve allowed this year is 68. On offense neither is all that great. Rutgers has topped 71 points only once this season yet they haven’t played a single defense ranked in the top 100 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. The Illini have better overall numbers on offense but they’ve faced only 2 defenses all season ranked inside the top 150 and they were held to 64 points in each of those games. Both offenses rank outside the top 220 in 3 point FG% and neither shoot FT’s very well (57% for Illinois & 65% for Rutgers). Illinois prefers to play fast but Rutgers is a slow paced team and at home so we expect them to control the tempo here. Under is the call. |
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12-02-23 | Boise State v. UNLV OVER 60.5 | Top | 44-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – UNLV vs Boise State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These offenses are humming right now and we don’t think they slow down here. After a slow start to the season offensively, the Broncos have now topped 30 points in 9 of their last 10 games. The only time they did not hit that mark was last week vs Air Force who has the 6th best defense in the country and Boise still put up 27 points and over 400 yards at 7.4 YPP in that win. UNLV has topped 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season including 4 games in a row. Last week we were on the Over 59 in the UNLV vs SJSU game and the final score was 37-31. That game could have had more points as the 2 teams combined for only 6 punts in 22 possessions and the offenses combined to average right around 7.0 YPP. Both defenses in this game rank outside the top 90 in YPP allowed and outside the top 70 in total defense so we look for both offenses to continue their success. Boise’s defense looks like it has improved over the last 3 or 4 games however a closer look reveals they’ve been pretty lucky. Last week they gave up 19 points in an Air Force offense that has been in a freefall scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. A week earlier they held a good Utah State offense to 10 points but the Aggies had 4 turnovers and were shut out on downs 3 times in Boise territory. The only 2 teams the Rebels held under 20 points this season were Wyoming and New Mexico and they allowed at least 27 points in 7 games this season. This game is being played in a controlled environment @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas so perfect conditions for scoring. Over is our play on this game. |
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12-01-23 | North Dakota v. CS-Fullerton -4.5 | Top | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cal State Fullerton -4.5 over North Dakota, Friday at 9 PM ET - North Dakota steps into this game with a 6-1 record, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far. They’ve faced only 1 team ranked inside the top 280 and that was Iowa and they lost that game by 42 points. The Fighting Hawks are in a very tough situational spot as well playing their 4th game in 7 days. They played in Conway, Arkansas on Saturday and Sunday, rushed home to face Concordia College of Minnesota on Tuesday and now they are on the West Coast a few days later. CS Fullerton has a 2-4 record but they’ve played the much tougher schedule. They’ve already faced 4 teams ranked 115th or higher and every team they’ve played is ranked higher than everyone on North Dakota’s schedule so far not named Iowa. The Titans have played only 1 home game the entire season prior to tonight and that was a 30 point win. Titan Gym is a tough place for opposing teams to visit as CSF has a record of 23-4 SU at home since the start of the 2022 season. Despite their sub .500 record and playing the much tougher schedule, the Titans PPP differential is actually better than North Dakota’s signaling some solid value on the home team. This is also a revenger from last season when CSF traveled to North Dakota and lost as a 5.5 point favorite. Now we’re laying the same number with them as home as the perception of each team is off due to their overall records. Half of the Fighting Hawks 6 wins have come by 2 points or less so they could be sitting with a much different record at this point. They are also one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation (348th) and one of the worst at defending the arc (349th). We’ll lay the number with Cal State Fullerton and look for a solid cover on Friday night. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
#305 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Oregon -9.5 over Washington, Saturday at 8 PM ET - There is a reason the team that has 1 loss on the season is favored by nearly double digits over the undefeated team. On top of that, the favored team in this game lost to the undefeated team this year yet still is a hefty chalk. We’ve been saying for weeks this Washington team is trending down and has been since they beat Oregon 36-33 back in mid October. The Huskies have now been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games including last week’s 24-21 home win over Washington State. The Huskies needed a last second FG to pull that one off and they barely had 300 total yards of offense vs a Wazzu defense that came into the game 83rd nationally in total defense. Even in their win over the Ducks this season, Washington had 7 fewer first downs and they were outgained by 125 yards and that was when the Huskies were clicking on all cylinders. They are just 2-6 ATS their last 8 games and the defense has fallen all the way to 84th nationally allowing over 400 total YPG. They’ve won 1 game in Pac 12 play by more than 10 points so this team has been flirting with disaster but remains undefeated. Meanwhile the Ducks defense ranks in the top 15 nationally and has allowed 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Since their loss to Washington, the Ducks have won 6 in a row with 5 of those coming by at least 14 points. Despite having 1 less win than UW in Pac 12 play (Washington 9-0 and Oregon 8-1) the Ducks point differential in league play is +225 compared to +72 for Washington! Oregon also averages over 100 YPG more than Washington in conference play while allowing over 100 less than the Huskies in Pac 12 games. Oregon is the much better and more complete team right now and with 1 loss already, if they get a chance to pour it on they will do just that in their last attempt to make College Football’s Final 4. No holding back in this one. We like the Ducks by double digits. |
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12-01-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 236.5 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 236.5 San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - The Spurs are coming off a game last night in which they allowed 137 points to the Hawks but scored 135 themselves. When playing without rest this season the Spurs have allowed 120 and 152 points. The Spurs allow 1.193 points per possession which ranks 26th in the league. They give up 123.4PPG which is the 3rd most. We know there will be plenty of possessions in this contest as the Spurs are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.1 possessions per game. New Orleans also prefers to play up-tempo with the 8th fastest paced number in the NBA. The Pelicans are at full strength here with the return of CJ McCollum and are coming off a 124-point outing against the 76ers. New Orleans should have an easy time scoring here against this Spurs defense that ranks 27th or worse in: FG% defense, field goals made per game, field goals attempted and 3PT% against. With the Pels having a high probability of scoring 125 or more points we like this game to go Over the total. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -8.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys -8.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - Being a professional sports bettor for over 30 years makes it very difficult to lay the points with Dallas here as this play has ‘public’ written all over it. We will make an exception though and don’t feel this line is high enough yet after opening with Dallas minus -6 or -7. The Cowboys at home have put up an average of 31.5PPG and have margins of victory of over 20PPG in 5 wins. The Dallas offense at home averages 7.0 yards per play which is 7th best in the league and total over 377YPG. Dak Prescott and the offense have the #1 ranked completion percentage at home at 70.3% and average the 4th most passing YPG at home. Seattle has taken a turn for the worse this season after a solid start and have lost 3 of their last four games. The Seahawks road numbers are especially bad as they are averaging just 10.6PPG in their last three road contests and two of those came against below average defenses of the Rams and Bengals. Seattle’s offense is below average in most key categories including total YPG, rushing and passing yards per game. Thursday, they face a Dallas D that is 3rd in yards per game allowed, yards per play allowed and give up just 16.8PPG which is 4th best. The Cowboys have won 13 straight home games and have scored 38+ in four straight in AT&T Stadium. |
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11-30-23 | Hawks -7.5 v. Spurs | Top | 137-135 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off two straight losses to the Celtics and Cavaliers and now step down in talent to face the Spurs. This game becomes much more important for the Hawks off those two losses with a road date against the Bucks looming. As far as the Spurs are concerned, they have lost 12 straight games and even Wemby can’t save this team this season. Maybe politics and other concerns have damped Coach Popovich’s competitive drive? No matter what the issues are, we do know this. The Spurs own the 3rd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -12.4PPG. At home they are losing by an average of -8.3PPG. They rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 19th in DEFF. In comparison, the Hawks allow 1.238 points per possession (27th) but they beat teams offensively by averaging 1.246PPP which is 3rd best in the NBA. In six of their last seven home games the Spurs have lost by 7 or more points. Atlanta recently beat the Wizards on the road by 28-points as a 9.5 point favorite. The Wiz and Spurs are similar teams and we expect another double digit win by the visitor in this one. |
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11-30-23 | UL - Lafayette +4.5 v. Samford | Top | 65-88 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
#747 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana +4.5 over Samford, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We have this game power rated dead even @ Samford so we’ll take the points. Louisiana is the better team and they’ve played the tougher schedule so far. The Rajin Cajuns are 5-2 with their 2 setbacks coming vs teams both rated higher than this Samford squad. ULL lost @ Toledo, the highest rated team in the MAC, by 9 points but Louisiana led that game by 16 midway through the 2nd half. Louisiana gathered only 3 points from the FT line in that game while Toledo scored 20 from the stripe which was obviously the difference. The Cajuns shot better from inside and outside the arc in that game but were done in by 10 more personal fouls. Their other loss was vs Wright State by 6 and the Raiders shot lights out in that game hitting 56% from the field. They’ve since won 3 in a row and are taking on a Samford team that has played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far. The Bulldogs were rolled in their first 2 games vs Purdue (lost by 53) and VCU (lost by 10) and they’ve since won 5 straight games all vs teams ranked 293 or lower per KenPom. Samford has played the 346th easiest schedule and yet they have the same points per possession differential as Louisiana who has played the much tougher slate. Despite playing the tougher schedule the Cajuns are the much better shooting team (49th overall shooting % and 11th three point %) and they’ve mad 78% of their FT’s. Samford’s defense ranks 250th defending the arc and they foul a lot (23% of opponents points from the stripe) which doesn’t match up well with ULL. On the other end of the court Samford relies heavily on the 3 point shot but will be facing a Louisiana team that has allowed just 25% from deep (15th best nationally). We give Louisiana a great shot to win this game outright but if not, at worst it should go to the wire so we’ll grab the points. |
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11-29-23 | 76ers v. Pelicans OVER 227.5 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 227.8 total points being scored. We don’t expect this game to be ‘average’. The host Pelicans like to play at a faster rate as they rank 8th in possessions per game. Philadelphia slightly lower than league average at 98.8 possessions per game. Philly scores their points by being highly efficient on the offensive end of the court averaging 1.202 points per possession which is 3rd in the NBA. The Pels aren’t as efficient but still manage 112.9PPG. We are seeing New Orleans trend in the positive direction offensively with an efficiency rating of 1.168PPP which ranks 12th best over the last 5 games. Defensively these two teams rank 12th and 13th in points allowed per possession. The Sixers average 17.5 fast break points per game, the Pelicans average 14.8 which is 11th best in the league. Both teams also feast in the paint ranking 9th and 11th in points in the lane. Last season in the two meetings these two combined for 231 and 243 total points. It all adds up to a higher scoring game between these two teams. |
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11-29-23 | Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
#677 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tennessee +2.5 over North Carolina, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good Tennessee team coming off back to back losses in Hawaii one week ago. Those losses were to Purdue (by 4) and Kansas (by 8) who are 2 of the top 3 teams in the nation in KenPom’s power ratings. The Vols have also already faced Syracuse (in Hawaii) and played @ Wisconsin (both double digit wins) in what has been a very tough schedule thus far. On the other side, UNC has played only 1 team ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 teams and that was a loss to Villanova. It’s also very possible the Heels will be without one of their top offensive players, Cormac Ryan (11 PPG), as he injured his ankle late last week in a game and hadn’t practiced at all as of Monday night. Missing his offense will be tough vs a Tennessee team that ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency (#1 last year as well) limiting teams to just 0.87 points per possession. The Vols had their chances against both Kansas and Purdue. The led in the 2nd half of both of those games but scored only 5 points in the final 6 minutes vs Kansas and had a shot to win in the final minute vs the Boilers. Now we’re getting a rested (off for a week) veteran team (all upperclassmen in rotation) off 2 straight losses. They will play with some urgency here and our power ratings have Tennessee as the better team and they are getting points. UNC’s 3 home games this year have been vs teams outside the top 150 and the Heels lost 3 home games a year ago. Last time the Vols paid a visit to the Dean Smith Dome in November 2021, they walked away with a 17 point win as an underdog. We don’t look for a blowout by either team here but we like the Vols to pull the minor upset. |
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11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -2 | Top | 123-124 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -2 vs Golden State Warriors – 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors typically get everyone’s best shot on a nightly basis with their lofty reputation. The Kings are no exception here and even have a little more to play for after the Warriors knocked them out of the Playoffs last season and beat them twice this year. On Oct 27th the Warriors went to Sacramento and won 122-114 as a 3-point dog. Then on Nov 1st the Warriors won at home 102-101 but the Kings were without All-Star point guard DeAaron Fox. Fox is averaging just under 30PPG and 6APG and is clearly one of the Kings two best players along with Sabonis. Golden State is just 3-8 SU their last eleven games and two of those wins came against the struggling Spurs and Pistons. Sacramento is 7-2 SU their last nine games and coming off a big road win over the Timberwolves. The Kings are a respectable 29-21 SU at home since the start of last season with an average +/- of +2.7PPG. Golden State is 17-38 SU away since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. We like the Kings to get a measure of revenge in this one. |
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11-28-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -125 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
#40 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers (-130) over Vegas Golden Knights, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We have been waiting for this one since the start of the season and the way it has been set up here is perfect. Vegas is in a B2B spot. The Golden Knights used their top goalie, Hill, last night. That means Thompson will be patrolling the crease tonight. Though Thompson has been okay this season, Hill has been the top guy and the Knights have lost each of Thompson's last 4 starts. This is a huge revenge game for the Oilers as they were eliminated in the Western Conference Semifinals by Vegas in May and the Golden Knights went on to win the Stanley Cup! What has made this situation even stronger (again we had this spot circled BEFORE the season started) is that the Golden Knights have now lost 7 of last 10 games and have been struggling to score goals of late. Now couple that with the fact that Edmonton seems to have turned the corner after a slow start this season. The Oilers just wrapped up a road trip with a much-needed 5-0 blowout win. For an encore, they came home and delivered an 8-2 thrashing to get warmed up for this huge revenge game. Remember it was right here in Edmonton that the Golden Knights ended the Oilers season last May! Now it is time for payback for the home team here. Since Kris Knoblauch took over in Edmonton for the fired Jay Woodcroft two weeks ago, the Oilers have gone a perfect 3-0 here on home ice! Edmonton is well-rested here as they have played only once since Friday while this will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for Vegas and it is a back to back spot. In this stretch of 7 losses in 10 games, Vegas has scored an average of only 1 goal in the 7 defeats! Also, they scored just one goal in regulation time of their most recent win (in OT over Dallas). The Golden Knights have not won a game in regulation time in a week and half! We like the goal-scoring confidence the Oilers have displayed in their last two games and they are getting their swagger back and the set up for this game is perfect. Looks like a solid home win is on the way in this one! Home team money line is our play here. |
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11-28-23 | LSU v. Syracuse -110 | Top | 57-80 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Syracuse pick-em over LSU, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with LSU as a slight favorite and has moved to a pick-em as of this writing on Monday evening. We agree with the move. We actually have the Orange favored by 3 with our power ratings so still some solid value. This is LSU’s first true road game of the season and they’ve been poor in that spot to say the least. Last year they were 0-9 SU in true road games and dating back to the start of the 2021 season they are 2-17 SU in road games. The JMA Wireless Dome (we still call it the Carrier Dome) can be a tough place to shoot for opposing teams. The Tigers had a losing record a year ago at 14-19 and they were a poor shooting team a year ago making only 41% of their shots (337th nationally). While they’ve shot the ball better early this season, they need to prove they can do it on the road in a tough environment. The Tigers have a number of transfers (4 new starters) trying to mesh early in the season but their #1 transfer, Jalen Cook, has been ruled ineligible this season and won’t play. LSU has had a problem with turnovers coughing it up on 19% of their possession despite playing only 1 team ranked inside the top 200 in defensive turnover percentage. Here they face a Cuse team that has been great at forcing turnovers almost 22% of the time (top 40 nationally). Syracuse is 4-2 on the season and their 2 losses came vs top 10 teams (Tennessee & Gonzaga) in Hawaii. They are undefeated in their 3 homes games and averaging 84 PPG. The Cuse has been back from Hawaii for 6 days with a chance to regroup and refresh. LSU just 7-18 ATS their last 25 games and this will be a tough spot for them as they try to adapt to their new line up. Take Syracuse. |
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11-27-23 | Bears +3 v. Vikings | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears are back at full strength with Justin Fields back in at QB and we like them to give Minnesota problems on Monday night. Chicago played @ Detroit last Sunday and led for much of the 2nd half including holding a 12 point lead with under 3:30 remaining in the game. The Lions pulled out a miracle with 17 points from that point on to beat Chicago by 5. Minnesota had their 5 game winning streak ended with a 21-20 loss @ Denver last week. New QB Dobbs has looked very solid for the Vikings but struggled in the 2nd half last week leading Minnesota to just 10 points along with throwing an interception. Dobbs was also very solid to start the year with Arizona but as teams figured out the Cards offense and how they were going to use him, he tapered off and we wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here. In the first meeting this season, Minnesota was at 100% with Cousins at QB and really struggled to beat the Bears 19-13. In that game Minnesota only scored 1 offensive TD and had a long fumble recovery for a TD which was the difference in the game. Chicago had more first downs and outgained the Vikings in that loss but had 3 turnovers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins this season have come by a single score and they’ve only won 1 game by more than 8 points. Four of Chicago’s last five losses have been 1 score games. The Bears offense should get back on track with Fields back in the line up and their defense has been very good as of late jumping from near the bottom of the NFL in late September to 15th in total defense where they currently stand. Minnesota has been historically poor on Monday nights with a 5-13 spread record since 2009. We think Chicago has a great shot at the upset here. Take the points. |
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11-27-23 | Northern Illinois +13.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 67-89 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Illinois +13.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern was overvalued coming into the season which has shown through in their ATS record which is 1-4. On the other end, Northern Illinois is undervalued with a perfect 5-0 ATS record (5-1 SU). The Huskies have played a fairly tough schedule (79th) and their only loss came in the season opener @ Marquette who is a top 10 team. Northwestern has a 4-1 SU record and none of their wins have come by this current spread of 13 despite playing a number of teams ranked much lower than NIU. The Cats are also coming off a 9 day layoff which we don’t think is ideal and they have bigger fish to fry as they host Purdue on Friday. NIU has shown an ability to shoot the ball well thus far ranking in the top 80 in both eFG% and 3 point %. This team should be able to hit some 3’s here facing a NW defense that is allowing opponents to hit almost 39% from deep this season (323rd defensively). The Huskies also get to the FT line a lot (25% of their points have come from the stripe) and if they can do that along with winning the 3 point line this game should be fairly close. NW is not a good shooting team thus far especially from beyond the arc where they’ve made only 29%. Last year Northwestern won this game at home by 17 points and this year they are facing an NIU team that is rated 100 spots higher, per KenPom, than last year’s team. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are currently 20+ spots lower right now compared to where they ended last season. This is a big game for NIU playing an instate big boy while NW just wants to get out of this one with a win and get ready to host the #1 team in the country on Friday. Take the points. |
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11-27-23 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 236 | Top | 126-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 236 Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - Tonight, the Wiz face a Detroit team that is 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.178 points per possession on the season and allow opponents to shoot 50.3% on the season which is 30th or last in the league. Washington is last in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.210PPP and give up over 125PPG. Washington is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA with 103.3 possessions per game. Detroit is 13th in pace of play and prefers an up-tempo approach. The Wizards have allowed 130 or more points in 4 of their last six games. Detroit has given up 119 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. Washington should have a solid shooting night with the 7th best FG% shooting team in the NBA going up against the 17th ranked FG% Pistons defense. Everyone shoots well against Washington as we mentioned, and both score well in transition with the Pistons ranking 2nd and the Wiz 8th in fast break efficiency. It’s a big number but we like Over. |
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11-26-23 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - The Nuggets are coming off a 1-4 five game road stretch and are playing with only 1 day rest. On the season the Nuggets average 1.171 points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA but in their last five games they are averaging 1.163PPP. The decline in scoring of course has a lot to do with the injury to All-Star PG Murray and his 16.3PPG missing from the lineup. Denver allows just 107.6PPG at home this season which is the 4th best number in the NBA. In comparison, the Spurs are averaging only 106.4PPG on the road which is 17th. On the season the Spurs rank 2nd to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.066PPP while shooting just 45.5% (24th). The young Spurs typically want to play fast but the home team Nuggets will dictate tempo and they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league. Denver is on a 6-2 Under run, the Spurs have stayed Under in 3 straight. Bet UNDER! |
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11-26-23 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
#743 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Texas A&M pick-em to +1.5 over Iowa State, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Florida. Both teams coming off losses on Friday with A&M losing by 7 vs FAU (37th rated team per KenPom) and Iowa State losing by 9 vs Virginia Tech (49th rated team per KenPom). The Aggies loss vs a very good Florida Atlantic team came down to the Owls shooting lights out from deep (16 of 30 from 3) and making 20 FT’s compared to 15 for A&M. Thus FAU outscored the Aggies by 23 points from beyond the arc + FT line and only won by 7. We look for this veteran team to bounce back tonight. The Aggies were 25-10 last year and they return 4 starters along with 81% of their minutes from that team. That includes PG Taylor who is one of the top players in the country. They are 5-1 SU on the season and have played a tough schedule already with 4 of their 6 opponents sitting inside the top 100. Iowa State is also 5-1 but they’ve played one of the weakest slates in the country with 2 top 100 teams and the other 4 ranking outside the top 260 including 3 outside the top 300. The Cyclones defensive numbers are great so far this season but let’s put that into perspective. They’ve played only 1 offense this year ranked in the top 100 and lost (vs Va Tech) and 4 of their other opponents are currently ranked 277 or lower in offensive efficiency with 3 outside the top 325. Now they face an A&M offense ranked 5th nationally in offensive efficiency. ISU thrives on creating turnovers to open up offensive opportunities but the Aggies have a veteran backcourt the rarely turns the ball over (13% TO rate – 19th best in the country) so we don’t think the Cyclones will be able to take advantage of that as they have vs lesser opponents this season. Because they are aggressive defensively, ISU fouls a lot and A&M makes their FT’s (76%) at a high rate. On the other end the Cyclones make only 68% of their freebies. A&M has been a covering machine with an ATS record of 50-30 their last 80 games. Our power ratings have A&M favored by 3 here and we’re getting them at dead even. Take Texas A&M here. |
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11-26-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
#269/270 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Many still view KC as the same high scoring offense as last year’s team that led the league averaging just over 29 PPG. That’s not the case as the Chiefs are struggling offensively and averaging a full TD less than last season (22 PPG). The defense is what is carrying the Chiefs this season as they rank 4th in total defense and DVOA defense and 5th in YPP allowed. They are allowing only 16 PPG which is good for 3rd in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Baltimore. They have held 8 of their last 9 opponents to 21 or less and we don’t expect Vegas to get near that number with rookie QB O’Connell under center again this week. Last week the Raiders scored only 13 points @ Miami and in the 5 games that O’Connell has taken snaps they’ve been held to 17 or fewer points 4 times. The Raiders have been held to 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 meetings with KC and this year the Chiefs have the best defense they’ve had during that stretch. What’s impressed us about Las Vegas is the huge upgrade they’ve made defensively. After finishing last season ranked 26th in PPG allowed, they rank 12th in the NFL allowing 20 PPG this season and have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 points or less. Even vs the potent Miami offense last week Vegas allowed only 20 points. We think they’ll continue to play well in this division game vs Kansas City. The implied score in this game based on the spread (KC -10) and the total (43.5) is right around 27-17. We don’t think the Las Vegas offense will get to 17 vs this Chiefs defense and KC has only topped 27 points TWICE the entire season. Under is the call on Sunday afternoon. |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans UNDER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48 Points - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – 1:00 PM CT - This is a big game for the potential winner in the AFC South with the Jags holding a 1-game lead in the standings, but the Texans beat the Jags earlier in the season. The first meeting had a total of 43.5 points and finished with 54 points being scored in a 37-17 Texans win. There were several big plays in the game with an 85-kick return for a TD along with a 68-yards touchdown pass. There was also a blocked FG that turned into great field position and a quick score for Houston. Eliminate a few of those outlier plays and that came stays Under the total of 43.5 points. With the added value in this O/U number we have to bet Under. Going back to September 17th we find that games involving Jacksonville have totaled 48 or less points 6 out of nine games. Houston and their opponents have totaled less than 48 points in 6 of their ten games and again, one of those Overs came when they played this Jags team and they had several unusual scoring plays. Three of the last four meetings between these two AFC South teams has resulted in 46 or less points. |
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11-25-23 | Heat v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -3.5 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - This is an ideal situation to back the Nets at home who are rested, playing an unrested Heat team AND playing with revenge from a loss to the Heat just over a week ago. Miami played last night in New York and tonight’s game will be their 4th in six days, 3rd in four days. Brooklyn has been off since the 22nd and will be well rested heading into this game. On Nov 16th the Nets lost in Miami 115-122 as a +3.5-point underdog. The game was relatively even statistically, but the Heat shot it slightly better overall and from beyond the arc. The Nets are 3-1 SU their last four at home with their most recent home game being a blowout loss to the 76ers. Miami is 6-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing on the second night of a back to back. Brooklyn is 11-7-1 ATS in that same time frame when playing with 2-3 days rest. Miami is 28-37-3 when coming off a win since the start of last season. Brooklyn had beaten the Heat 6 straight times prior to the recent loss and we are betting they get back on the winning track here. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -2.5 over New Mexico State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This is a really solid situational spot for Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are not eligible for a bowl game this year so you can expect them to treat this as their bowl game. They are facing an NMSU team that has already qualified for the CUSA Championship game next weekend where they will be facing Liberty. On top of that, New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE upset last weekend beating Auburn (maybe caught Tigers looking ahead to Alabama this week?) on the road as a 25 point dog. To add fuel to the fire, JSU, because they joined the conference this year is not eligible to play in the CUSA Championship. If they were, this game would be for a spot in that game with both teams at 6-1 in league play and because of that you can bet this is a huge statement game for JSU. Add that up and this is a prime letdown spot for the Aggies looking ahead to next week’s Championship game. JSU played arguably their best game of the season last week beating La Tech 56-17 and outgained the Bulldogs 628 to 269. NMSU’s QB Pavia is banged up and they rely heavily on their running game which could be a problem in this game. JSU ranks 19th nationally allowing only 106 YPG and 4th nationally allowing 2.7 YPC. On the other side of the ball JSU averages almost 250 YPG on the ground (3rd in the nation) and they are facing a Aggie defense that ranks 41st defending the run and 61st in YPC allowed. There is a reason the road team is favored over the team playing in the CUSA Championship Game next week. We like JSU to win by more than a FG here. |
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11-25-23 | San Jose State v. UNLV OVER 59.5 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 59.5 Points - San Jose State at UNLV, 3 PM ET - It all comes down to this game to determine who will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force and Boise State could still manage to get it but either way, all teams involved must win to have that opportunity. With that in mind we expect this game to be a shootout between the Spartans and Rebels. In conference action this season UNLV games have averaged 59.2 total points per game. Conference games involving San Jose State have averaged slightly lower at 56.8PPG. After a slow start to the season, SJST has won 5 straight games and the offense has clicked with 52, 42, 35, 42 and 24-points. The Rebels have surprised everyone this season with their 8-2 record, and they too have put up some impressive offensive numbers by scoring 31 or more points in seven games this season, 40+ in five. UNLV is 41st in yards per play offense at 6.2, rank 40th in total YPG at 425, run and pass it equally well. The Spartans are 58th in total YPG (398), 30th in yards per play (6.4) and rank 32nd in rushing yards per game, 81st in passing yards per game. Both teams also hit on explosive scoring plays as evidenced by San Jose State averaging 12.9 yards per point scored (26th) and UNLV averaging 12.2YPPT which ranks 12th. We expect both teams to get into the 30’s in this one and predict an easy OVER winner. |
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11-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue -4.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
#168 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -4.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both these teams step into this game with a 3-8 record, however our power ratings have IU as the lowest rated team in the Big 10 and Purdue 3 points better on a neutral site. We’re getting them at basically that number at home on Saturday. Purdue is off a loss @ NW but they played that game without starting QB Card and he is expected back for this one. Even without Card, the Boilermakers were +9 first downs and +114 yards in that loss. What’s been impressive about the Purdue offense as of late is their running game. They have now rushed for over 300 yards in each of their last 2 games and the week prior to that they actually outrushed Michigan in their loss in Ann Arbor. They should have a big edge here in the trenches vs an Indiana team that ranks 107th running the ball and 120th in YPC. IU has lost 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming at home vs Wisconsin with the Badgers playing their backup QB. And the Hoosiers were outgained in that win vs the Badgers by 80 yards but Wisconsin was -2 in turnovers. Despite the records being equal, Purdue has the better numbers vs nearly the same strength of schedule. The Boilers have the better point differential YPG differential and YPP differential. They have also covered 6 in a row vs the Hoosiers. Last year Purdue was -10.5 on the road vs IU (Purdue won by 14) and now we’re getting them at home right around a FG favorite. The Boilers lost to Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin at home however when facing lower tier Big 10 opponents (Illinois & Minnesota) they won by scores of 44-19 and 49-30. We like Purdue to win & cover at home on Saturday. |
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11-24-23 | Kings v. Wolves -4 | Top | 124-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #566 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is a big game for the In Season Tournament as both teams are 2-0 in pool play and the winner of this game essentially locks up the In Season bid. Minnesota was just a -7-point favorite at home against the 76ers and are now laying just -4 against the Kings? These teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings with the Kings averaging 1.137-points per possession while the Wolves average 1.135PPP. Minnesota owns the 6th best FG% number in the league at 48.9%. Sacramento doesn’t shoot it overly well at 46.2% (22nd) but they make 3-pointers at a 14.6 per game clip which is 5th most. The difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court. The Wolves are 1st in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.062PPP compared to the Kings who rank 16th in the NBA allowing 1.144PPP. Minnesota is one of the best teams in the league defending the 3-point line holding opponents to 32.4% shooting (2nd). Sacramento allows opponents to hit 48.9% of their field goal attempts which is 23rd in the league. Minnesota has won 3 of the last four meetings with the Kings getting one win in OT last year. Minnesota has the 2nd best average home differential in the league at +17.3PPG. The Kings have a negative road differential of minus -3.2PPG. Back the home team here by more than 4-points. |
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11-24-23 | UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane | Top | 16-29 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
#185 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams are both 7-0 in conference play and the winner of this game will move onto play on the AAC Championship game. Tulane has a few other options to make it to that game if they lose here but UTSA does not. We really like the way UTSA is playing right now and we also feel Tulane has been trending down for the last 4 or 5 weeks. The Roadrunners have won 7 straight games and they are 5-1-1 ATS during that stretch. Their offense has been rolling to say the least scoring at least 34 points in each of those 7 wins and topping 40 points 4 times. Tulane remains overvalued covering only 2 of their last 8 games and they’ve struggled with some of the AAC’s worst teams. Prior to winning and covering vs a bad FAU team last week, the Green Wave beat Tulsa by 2 (as 24.5 point favorites), beat ECU by 3 (as 17 point favorites), beat Rice by 2 (as 10 point favorites), and topped North Texas by 7 (as 20 point favorites). Their record remains great but this team is primed to be knocked off. On Friday they face the best team they’ve seen since losing by 17 at home vs Ole Miss back in September. Their offense is struggling not scoring more than 24 points in any of their last 3 games and 2 of those games were vs defenses ranked 90th and 129th nationally. We have UTSA rated as the better team and we’re getting more than a FG. When comparing the key stats in AAC play only, despite both teams having 7-0 records, UTSA has a point differential of +132 while Tulane’s point differential is +52. The Roadrunners are also +100 YPG and +1.4 YPP in conference play compared to the Green Wave who are +59 YPG and +0.5 YPP. UTSA has been a dog just once this season and that was @ Tennessee. They haven’t lost a game since September and 2 of their 3 losses this season came with star QB Harris (4 year starter with 11,600 passing yards and 91 TD’s in his career) out of the lineup with an injury. UTSA is undervalued right now and we like them to win this game and move onto the AAC Championship game. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #113 Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs. NY Jets, Friday 3 PM ET - Let’s be upfront on this wager. It looks like we are laying a premium price with the Dolphins here as this line opened with Miami favored by -7.5 points and has been bet up steadily since. Part of the bump in the number is the speculation the Jets are going to their 3rd string QB Tim Boyle. Boyle has been in the league for 5 years out of Eastern Kentucky with 18 games played with 607 total passing yards on 72/120 passing. He has 3 career TD’s to 9 INT’s. This Jets offense is putrid! They have scored 13, 6, 12 and 6-points in their past four games. New York is averaging 4.7 yards per play this season (29th) which is even worse in their past three games at 4.1YPP. The 270YPG and 15PPG average are both 30th in the league. They can’t run (23rd) at 99.8 rushing yards per game or pass (30th) at 170.5 passing YPG. Nothing will come easy against a Dolphins defense that is 12th in total YPG allowed and 13th in yards per play allowed. Miami has one of the best offenses in the NFL rankings 1st in total YPG, 1st in yards per play (7.2), 2nd in rushing and 1st in passing. The Jets simply cannot keep up with this offense. Miami has struggled against the good teams this season, but against the bad teams they’ve dominated with 4 double digit wins. Miami is coming off a poor final score against the Raiders with a 20-13 win. They dominated statistically with 9 more first downs, had 422 total yards of offense but 3 key turnovers cost them points. This week they make a statement on Friday with a 2 or more TD win over the Jets. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #106 Detroit Lions -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers, Thursday 12:30 PM ET - The extra ½ point on this game will have plenty of bettors on the Packers as a division dog but not us. The Lions were favored by -2.5 points at Lambeau earlier this season and put up 34-points in a 14-point win. Detroit put up over +400 total yards of offense and held the Packers to 230. In week #2 of this season the Lions were favored by 6-points at home against Seattle and lost 31-37. Since then, they have gone 4-0 SU at home with three of those wins coming by 14 or more points. Last week they trailed the Bears for most of the game before two TD’s late in the game for a win. That should serve as a wake-up call for the Lions. Green Bay has to travel here on a short week and are coming off a satisfying home win over the Chargers. The Packers QB Jordan Love has looked good the past two weeks but now he’ll be playing without RB Aaron Jones and going up against a Lions defense that is ranked 9th in defensive DVOA. Detroit is 5th against the run, 9th in total YPG allowed and 8th in opponents completion percentage. Green Bay is 18th in offensive DVOA and 23rd defensively. The Packers have one road win this season (Bears) and they haven’t faced a team of the Lions caliber on the road yet. Last season the Lions had an average +/- at home of +7.8PPG, this year that average is +8.6PPG. |
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11-22-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
#36 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Stars (-135) over Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - The Stars have been waiting for this game and are off to a fantastic start this season. The Golden Knights are the defending champs but have been slumping badly. Dallas is hungry for this one in particular because they lost a hard-fought playoff series with Vegas in May. Then, in their first shot at revenge this season the Stars actually never trailed against the Knights in Vegas but they lost in the shootout. The Golden Knights scored the equalizer with just 3 minutes left in regulation or there would have been no shootout in a game that the Stars know they should have taken! Now, entering this game, the set-up is perfect for revenge and the odds makers know that as well. That is why the Stars are priced as a solid -135 favorite here against the defending champs. There is no mistake with this line. The Golden Knights have lost 5 of 7 games and scored a total of just 6 goals in those 5 defeats! The Stars enter this one having won 11 of 15 games. Also, unlike Vegas, Dallas is having no trouble in the goal-scoring department of late. The Stars have scored at least 3 goals in 6 straight games and have averaged scoring 4.7 goals per game in those 6 games. Keep in mind the Knights were rolling until early November but, since then, the only two wins they have the past few weeks have been against Montreal and San Jose. Those teams have combined for just 10 wins in 36 games this season. The Golden Knights are just not right at the moment and the Stars are rolling with confidence and on home ice here and highly motivated. Looks like a home blowout is on the way in this one! Home team money line is our play here. |
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11-22-23 | Bucks v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #536 Boston Celtics -5.5 or -6 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This is the biggest game on the schedule tonight and we are backing the Celtics at home minus the points. The Celtics are coming off a loss and back at home where they haven’t lost this season. Boston has an average +/- of +22.4PPG at home this season and it’s come against quality opponents including the Heat, Pacers, Nets, Raptors and Knicks. We realize the Celtics can’t continue that torrid point differential at home, but we won’t be surprised if that average is double digits by seasons end. Last season the C’s average +/- at home was +8.8PPG. Last season the Celtics beat the Bucks badly in two of the three meetings with a pair of 41-point wins. Milwaukee is still going through an adjustment period with a new coach and Damian Lillard. The Bucks are 10-4 SU but it’s come against a very soft schedule (25th). These two teams are similar offensively with the Buck ranking 7th in offensive efficiency, the Celtics are 3rd. Defensively it’s not close as the C’s are 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency the Bucks are 25th. With Milwaukee still going through a transition period we like Boston to get a dominating win at home tonight. |
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11-22-23 | East Tennessee State v. Cleveland State -7.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#690 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland State -7.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for the host CSU. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Eastern Michigan as a 7 point favorite. They should be extra motivated after that loss. They are facing an ETSU team that is off an upset win at home over Davidson (70-68 as a 6.5 point dog) which makes this a perfect set up for the home team. ETSU battled back from a 10 point deficit in that game to win by 2 points. The Bucs are 2-2 on the season but they’ve lost both of their road games @ Elon (ETSU was a favorite) and then getting smoked at Butler. This is an ESTU team that had a 12-20 record last season and is learning the ropes under a new head coach Brooks Savage who has never been a head coach and came over from Wake Forest where he was an assistant. Four of their five starters are transfers and they only return 34% of their minutes for last season. Cleveland State finished 21-14 last season and they are one of the favorites in the Horizon this season. We currently have them power rated as the 2nd best team in the league behind only Wright State. They return 3 starters and almost 60% of their minutes from last year. CSU’s 2 losses have come on the road and they are 3-0 at home and they’ve won 30 of their last 35 games at home. The Vikings have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they finished 2nd in the Horizon last year with a 14-6 SU record. CSU is a solid program with a record of 55-33 last 3+ seasons and we’re getting them at home off a loss. We expect a double digit win for the Vikings on Wednesday. |
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11-21-23 | Pacers v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 157-152 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: #522 Atlanta Hawks -3.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game for the East Group A pool in the In-Season Tournament as the Pacers are 2-0 and leading the group with the Hawks in the 4th spot at 1-1. Atlanta is on the outside looking in but still have an opportunity to get into the mid-season finals if they beat the Pacers here and get a win over Cleveland. The Hawks are 2-3 SU their last five games and have currently lost three straight home games but we like them to get back on track here. Not to mention, the three recent home losses came to the 76ers, Knicks and Heat. The young Pacers have only played 4 road games this season with a 2-2 SU record. Comparing these two teams when it comes to efficiency ratings we find the Pacers hold a slight edge offensively ranking 1st while the Hawks are 5th. Defensively the Pacers are the 27th worst in DEFF with the Hawks ranking 22nd. Atlanta has the 9th best net differential when you factor in their strength of schedule while the Pacers are 19th. Atlanta has won 6 of the last seven meetings with five of those coming by 3 or more points. This line isn’t what it should be as our power ratings have the Hawks favored by nearly 6-points. |
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11-21-23 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan OVER 51.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Bowling Green vs Western Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on the Over in the WMU vs Northern Illinois game last week and the Broncos let us down with their worst performance of the season. We like them to bounce back in their home finale on Tuesday. WMU didn’t score a point last week but prior to that they were averaging 31.5 PPG their previous 7 games and only Ohio (ranked 5th nationally in total defense) held them under 21 points. BG’s defense went through a stretch of games recently where their defense looked very good. Those 4 games were vs Buffalo, Kent, Ball State, and Akron, and not one of those offenses ranks inside the top 105 nationally. Last week the Falcons gave up 32 points to Toledo and prior to that 4 games stretch vs terrible offenses, they had allowed an average of 31 PPG their prior 4 games. We like WMU’s to have success on Tuesday. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense has been rolling to say the least. They’ve scored at least 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games and if we subtract their one offensive stinker during that stretch vs Miami OH (23rd defense nationally) the Falcons averaged 34.5 PPG in the other 6 games. Their facing a bad Western Michigan defense on Tuesday as the Broncos rank 11th in the MAC (12 team conference) in total defense and scoring defense. WMU has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season and they’ve allowed 40+ four times. WMU games have topped 50 total points in 7 of their last 9 games and BG games have topped 50 in 4 of their last 6. With this total sitting in the low 50’s we’re getting some value with the Over here. Weather can be an issue in the Midwest this time of year but not on Tuesday in Kalamazoo with showers ending before or near kickoff, temps in the 40’s and light winds. |
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11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Detroit -2.5 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit -2.5 over Eastern Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Detroit will finally be playing their first home game after starting the season with 4 tough road tilts. The Titans are 0-4 which is giving us some value here as we’re laying -2.5 and our power ratings have Detroit closer to -5. They are also catching EMU off an upset home win over Cleveland State as 7 point underdogs which is also pushing this number lower than it should be. Detroit has played all top 125 teams and those 4 teams have a combined record of 13-1. Now they get to play a home game vs an EMU team ranked outside the top 300 so big drop off in competition. We’ll be honest the numbers on both ends of the court for both teams are not good but Detroit has played the tougher schedule. The only unit on the court that ranks inside the top 300 in efficiency is Detroit’s offense which ranks 252nd. Eastern is 2-2 on the season but those 2 wins came at home. They’ve played 2 road games this year and lost those by 43 & 39 points! Speaking of road games, the Eagles have been absolutely brutal long term away from home winning only 6 of their last 54 road games! With this number set very low, the almost need to win this game outright to cover and we just don’t see it. Detroit, on the other hand, has been very solid at home with an 18-6 SU record since the start of the 2022 season. This is a revenger for Detroit as well as they lost by 2 points @ EMU last year. The Titans were favored on the road by 4.5 points in that one and now they are laying a full bucket less at home just 1 year later. Again, nice value here with the home team and we’ll lay it. |
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11-20-23 | UCLA v. Marquette -5.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -5.5 over UCLA, Monday at 11:30 PM ET – Game in Hawaii - This is the last game of the Maui Invitational on Monday night. This is rough early season opponent for this inexperienced UCLA team. The Bruins have 1 starter back from last year’s team, lost nearly 90% of the scoring, and return only 18% of their total minutes from a year ago. Their starting backcourt is really raw with sophomore McClendon, who averaged 9 minutes per game last year, and freshman Mack. They’ve be facing off vs one of the top guard duos in the country. Marquette’s Kolek was Big East player of the year last season and Jones is one of the top off guards in the nation. Huge advantage to the Golden Eagles. As a whole, unlike UCLA, Marquette brings back nearly everyone from a team that finished 29-7 last year and won the Big East regular season and post season crown. They return 4 starters and 85% of their minutes. They’ve already faced the much tougher schedule with each of Marquette’s opponents ranking higher in Ken Pom than any of UCLA’s foes. The Eagles also have a played a high level opponent on the road this year as they beat Illinois 71-64 leading nearly the entire way. UCLA has played 3 home games vs teams all ranked 329th or lower. Despite playing 3 terrible opponents, the Bruins only hit 24% of their 3 pointers in those 3 games and their young starting backcourt is just 2 for 9 from deep this season. This veteran Marquette team has been more than comfortable away from home (road or neutral) with a 14-6 SU record (14-5-1 ATS) since the start of last season. We like the Golden Eagles to roll to an easy win on Monday night. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch here and we’ll side the team that won that game, the Chiefs, at home on Monday night. Both teams are off a bye, however we feel this heavily favors KC and head coach Andy Reid. He’s been lights out off a bye during his coaching career with a 21-3 SU lifetime record. This line says that these 2 teams are dead even on a neutral field which we don’t agree with. We have KC as the better team and DVOA agrees with us as they have the Chiefs rated 3rd in the NFL and Philadelphia 9th. DVOA also rates KC better on offense and defense. They’ve played the more difficult schedule and they have the better numbers. KC is +80 YPG and +0.9 YPP while the Eagles are +50 YPG and +0.2 YPP. The Chiefs also have a better point differential despite having one less win. The Eagles are 4-1 SU on the road however this is their first real test away from home. Their road slate has been one of the easiest in the NFL facing the Jets, Commanders, Patriots, Rams, and Bucs thus far. Despite winning 3 straight games, Philly simply isn’t playing all that well getting outgained by more than 100 yards in 2 of those wins vs Dallas & Washington. QB Hurts has not been 100% (leg injury) and he just lost one of his top targets TE Goedert with an arm injury. KC has won 20 of their last 22 home games and all but one of those wins had come by at least 3 points. We look for Patrick Mahomes to have a big night vs a Philly defense that ranks 28th vs the pass and 29th in opposing QBR. With this sitting under a FG, we like the Chiefs to cover at home. |
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11-20-23 | Knicks v. Wolves -130 | Top | 100-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #508 Minnesota Timberwolves -2 or -130 money line vs NY Knicks – 8:10 PM ET - If you haven’t noticed, the Timberwolves are playing at an extremely high level and are considered one of the best teams in the Western Conference. Minnesota has won 8 of their last nine games and are 9-3 on the season. The Wolves have done it against a very formidable schedule with recent wins against the Nuggets, Celtics, Warriors and Pelicans. The Wolves are 5-0 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +18.2PPG. The Knicks have won 6 of their last seven games but the wins have come against some of the league’s worst teams including the Spurs, Hornets, Wizards. Typically, New York would ‘out-defense’ you here, but the fact of the matter is the Wolves are better defensively owning the #1 efficiency rating in the NBA. When it comes to offense these teams are near even in efficiency ratings, but again, the Knicks have faced an easier schedule. Back the home team here. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings +2.5 or +3 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Broncos look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 3 straight. However, they have been outgained in 2 of those 3 wins and in the other “W” they only outgained the Packers by 8 yards. They were underdogs in 2 of those wins and a small 1 point favorite vs Green Bay. Now they are officially overvalued laying nearly a full FG vs a solid Minnesota team that has won 5 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. This Denver team is flat out bad when laying points with a 4-15-1 ATS run their last 20 in that role. They lost 13 of those 20 games outright. Minnesota has continued to play very well after inserting Dobbs at starting QB. In 2 games with the Vikings Dobbs has thrown for 426 yards on 67% completions with 3 TD’s and no picks. Their rushing attack doesn’t have good numbers for the season but the Vikes have balanced their offense out nicely with 125 and 146 yards rushing the last 2 games. On the other side the defense is vastly improved ranking in the top 10 in YPP allowed giving up a full 1.0 YPP less than last season. The Vikings have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 20 points. Minnesota has the much better overall numbers on the season with a point differential of +24 (Denver is -52), a YPG margin of +35 (Denver is -100), and a YPP margin of +0.6 (Denver is -0.8). We’ll take the better overall team as an underdog in this one. |
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11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4 | Top | 128-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic – 5:10 PM ET - These two teams have been big surprises in the Eastern Conference this season and both of their young rosters have played exceptionally well. Orlando comes into this game with a 7-5 SU record, Indiana is 7-4 SU. These teams play two entirely different styles of play as the Pacers try to outscore you whereas the Magic focus their energy on the defensive end of the court. Indiana is averaging a league best 1.223-points per possession and score 126.5PPG. Orlando has the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league and allow 106.6PPG. We are betting the Pacers outscore the Magic here. Indiana is second in pace of play and the young Magic rank 15th meaning they can and will get sucked into playing an uptempo game today. Despite playing fast in high possession games, the Pacers don’t turn the ball over with the 3rd fewest TO’s in the league. Orlando on the other hand averages the 3rd most TO’s on the season at 16.3 per game. Pacer PG Tyrese Haliburton is playing at an All-Star level averaging 24.7PPG, 12.5 APG points per game, and his 12.5 assists per leads the NBA. We are not as impressed with the Magics recent two road wins over a Bulls team that is on the trade market. Indiana on the other hand has won 4 of their last five games including wins over the 76ers and Bucks in that stretch. They also own a pair of wins over a Cavs team this season that plays a similar style to the Magic. Orlando has a negative differential on the road this season of -5PPG, Indiana at home has a +11.3PPG differential which is 5th best in the NBA. Let’s lay the points. |
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11-19-23 | Titans v. Jaguars -6.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Titans rookie QB Will Levis played well in his first start but now teams have game tape on him and can better prepare or scheme for the young QB. He is in a tough situation here with this being his third straight road game and the Titans have not played well away from home. Tennessee is averaging just 12PPG (30th) away from home and 255YPG which is 30th in the NFL. They are 0-5 SU on the road and also have a negative average differential of minus -9.7PPG. Last week the Jags schedule finally caught up with them and they faced a highly motivated 49ers team off a 3 game losing streak. They were blown out by 31-points which should serve as a wake up call this week. Prior to that game the Jags had won 5 straight games with four of those five wins coming by 7 or more points. This is one of those fishy lines with the Jags favored by 7 full points when they were only favored by 4 at home against the Colts and 3 against the Falcons. Tennessee just played at Tampa and was +2.5 and the week before they were +3 at Pittsburgh. This looks like an obvious trap by the oddsmakers as they are baiting you to back the Titans. Let’s not do it! |
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11-18-23 | San Diego State v. San Jose State -14.5 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
#430 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -14.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We were on the Spartans last week as they rolled over a very solid Fresno State team 42-18 and we expect more of the same on Saturday. San Jose State is 5-5 and they need one more win for bowl eligibility. They are much better than their .500 record as their losses have come at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 38-15! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 7 of their last 8 games. They’ve won 4 straight in blowout fashion, including rolling over an 8-1 Fresno State team last Saturday as we mentioned. The Spartans have beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 171 to 63 and outgained those teams 1,830 to 1,160. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with over 1,000 yards over the last 4 games. Last week they completely dominated the line of scrimmage rushing for 313 yards to just 83 for Fresno. That was vs a Bulldog defense that was allowing just 125 YPG rushing and now SJSU faces a San Diego State defense that ranks 111th vs the run. SDSU has been a huge disappointment this season and last week’s loss @ Colorado State knocked them out of bowl contention with a current record of 3-7. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, we may not see a lot of fight out of this Aztec team. They are getting outgained by 100 YPG and by 1.0 YPP on the season. The SDSU offense ranks 112th in total offense and 116th in scoring and they are going to try and keep up with a team that has averaged 43 PPG over their last 4? We don’t thinks so. Another easy win for SJSU who is also looking for revenge after losing to the Aztecs last season as a favorite. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas has been playing a number of tight games as of late with 4 of their last 5 decided by a TD or less. Their last 2 road games have gone to the wire winning by just 7 @ Houston as a 23.5 point favorite and winning by 3 last week @ TCU as a 13 point favorite. The Horns have covered only once in their last 5 games and they’ll have all they can handle here vs an ISU team that has had their number. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 4 season vs Texas with their only loss coming @ UT last year 24-21 as a 16 point dog. ISU had over 400 yards in the loss and outgained Texas in the process. The Cyclones are also playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ Oklahoma and vs Kansas by a final of 28-21. Texas took huge blow in last week’s tight win @ TCU losing all everything RB Brooks (1,100 rushing yards and 10 TD’s) to an injury and he’ll be out for the rest of the year. The Clones are playing their home finale here with some solid momentum after rolling @ BYU 45-13 last week. They have a top 25 defense and head coach Matt Campbell has proven he knows how to defend the potent Longhorn attack not allowing Texas to top 24 points in any of their last 6 meetings. Speaking of Campbell, he’s been lights out as a Big 12 underdog with a 28-11 ATS mark in that spot including 11-3 ATS when getting points at home in league play. This is a very dangerous game for Texas and we like Iowa State to stay within this number and have a shot at the upset. |
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11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State -120 | Top | 22-20 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -120 over Washington, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason that an undefeated top 5 team is an underdog in this game. They should be. Washington has been primed to get “upset’ for a good month now and we think this is where they go down. Washington is overvalued right now having only covered 1 of their last 6 games. In those 6 games they are -47 points to the spread so losing to the spread by an average of about 8 PPG and of their 10 wins, 6 have come by 10 points or less. The Huskies have also been outgained in 4 of their last 6 games and their defense is in a freefall allowing an average of 455 YPG over their last 5 games. Last week at home the struggled to beat Utah winning by a TD despite running 18 more offensive snaps and getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 6.1 YPP. On Saturday they get an Oregon State team that is simply lights out at home. In fact, since the start of the 2021 season, the Beavers have played 17 home games and covered 16 of those games! This year alone they beat 2 very good Pac 12 teams, UCLA and Utah, by double digits at home. We expect OSU to control the line of scrimmage here with the much better running game (9th nationally averaging 5.4 YPC) vs a Washington team that has been outrushed on a YPC basis in 5 straight games. The Beavers are playing very well right now having won 5 of their last 6 games with their only loss coming @ a red hot Arizona team by 3 points, a game OSU outgained Zona both on the ground and through the air. Despite their 8-2 record compared to Washington’s 10-0 record, the Beavers actually have a better YPG differential at +120 to the Huskies +93 YPG. We think this sets up very nicely for a dominant home team to get a win over an overvalued undefeated team. Take Oregon State. |
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11-18-23 | North Carolina v. Clemson OVER 59.5 | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
#341/342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – North Carolina vs Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UNC’s defense has been brutal over the last month allowing at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games (minus their game vs FCS opponent Campbell. Last week they allowed 47 points (36 in regulation) to a Duke offense that has been flat out bad over the last month averaging just 16 PPG over their previous 5 games. Duke put up those numbers last week with their starting QB Leonard on the bench with an injury. Clemson’s offense has come alive the last 2 weeks with 73 total points and should have plenty of success vs a UNC defense that’s been poor (82nd total defense) to say the least. On the other side of the ball, the Heels have one of the best QB’s in college football in Drake Maye and the rank 8th nationally averaging 40 PPG and 3rd nationally in total offense putting up 520 YPG. Clemson’s defense has allowed 21 points or more in 4 straight games vs offense with an average rank of 54th in the country. The fact is Clemson hasn’t faced an offense as potent as UNC this season. The best offense they’ve faced in FSU (ranked 23rd) and they put up 31 points in Clemson on this team. Both teams are fast paced with UNC ranking 11th in seconds per play and Clemson ranking 39th so we expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game. The implied teams totals in this game based on the total and the 7 point spread in favor of Clemson are the Tigers 33 and the Tar Heels 26. Perfect weather expected in Clemson on Saturday and we expect both teams to top those numbers and we’re on the Over on Saturday in this ACC match up. |
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