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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-04-17 | UNLV v. Fresno State -12 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Fresno State (#616) My clients and I cashed a pair of ‘right side’ winners supporting Fresno State in their last two games, outright upset wins at Boise and San Diego State. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Bulldogs write-up. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “Fresno won nine straight games down the stretch last year (8-1 ATS) capturing the Mountain West Tournament title at the end of that streak; a streak that began in mid-February, as Rodney Terry’s team played their best basketball at this stage of the campaign. And, fresh off four consecutive and covers, the Bulldogs appear to be peaking at the right time again this year. “Coach Terry, talking about their success running their halfcourt offense in a win over New Mexico last week: “It definitely gives you some confidence to be able to do that… we’re just getting to a point right now where we’re able to play through some guys, and when you’re able to get older and get some experience, you’re able to do that and control that a lot more, say, ‘Hey, this is what we want on this possession and let’s execute right now.’ ” “Senior forward Paul Watson: “Each possession, you have to value the ball. That’s something we haven’t done as well as we did last year, but it’s definitely something we’re working on. You have to get a shot up every possession. You can’t afford to turn it over. You have to get a good look and give yourself a chance.” Fresno has shown the ability to win by margin consistently at home, beating Wyoming, Boise, Colorado State, San Jose, Air Force and New Mexico all by nine points or more. On Senior Day, we can expect another inspired performance, especially against a Rebels team that has ‘no-show’ written all over them! This has been a disastrous season for UNLV; arguably the worst season in the history of this once proud program. But the Rebels snapped a nine game losing streak with a win over Utah State at home on Senior Night earlier in the week; taking the pressure off in one of the only 40 minute games they’ve played all year. Forward Christian Jones: “(The victory) means a lot, especially for the seniors. This whole team was stressing we need to get this win for the seniors, and that’s what we did. We played for that whole 40 minutes instead of just one half.” But UNLV hasn’t even managed to play one half of good basketball in any recent road game, losing by 23, 27 and 13 in their three February road tilts, losing ATS by a combined 34.5 points. Their last game against a ‘good’ team – Nevada – was a 94-58 blowout loss. The Bulldogs beat a much better UNLV team than this one three times last year. I’m not expecting this game to be competitive in any way by the time the second half rolls around. Take Fresno St |
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03-04-17 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +2 | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State (#610) This is the ultimate ‘no-show’ game for Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming off an exhilarating, come from behind win against Oklahoma on Senior Night. They have already clinched their 13th consecutive Big 12 regular season title and the #1 seed in next week’s Big 12 Tournament. And Bill Self’s key cogs are all worn down. Over the last five games, out of a possible 205 court minutes (counting OT against West Virginia), Frank Mason has played 199, DeVonte Graham has played 193 and Josh Jackson has played 171 minutes. For a team with legitimate Big 12 tourney and national title aspirations, this game is as meaningless as it gets. I’m not expecting Bill Self to chase hard if (when!) the Jayhawks fall behind – he’s got to manage his stars minutes today! Oklahoma State has been a truly remarkable story this college basketball season. First year head coach Brad Underwood watched his team go 0-6 to open Big 12 play, suffering one excruciating loss after the next. That included a tight loss to full strength Kansas, a two point game with 4:00 to play before Kansas pulled away late. Instead of wilting, Oklahoma State has put together a remarkable turnaround: 10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS since, as hot as any team in the conference heading into their own Senior Night. Coach Underwood: “We’re a good basketball team and have we peaked? Not yet. We have a chance to be an exceptional basketball team and we’re showing that.” It’s not just Underwood talking about his team as a squad with elite potential at this stage of the campaign. Here’s a quote from Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard following the Cowboys 17 point win against the Red Raiders in their last home game: “Brad has really good players. He has an NBA point guard (Juwan Evans), one of the all-time great Big 12 players in (Phil) Forte, and in my opinion he has the most improved player, not only in Big 12, but in college basketball with (Jeffrey) Carroll. He has young players who really play their roles and play productive minutes.” From an offensive standpoint, Oklahoma State is no ‘unranked’ team. In fact, the Cowboys rank #1 in the country, ahead of even mighty UCLA, with a 125.1 adjusted offensive efficiency; the second best college basketball offense of the last TEN YEARS! In a pointspread range where the SU win equates to an ATS cover, the undervalued Cowboys are worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager today. Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State. |
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03-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit UNDER 147 | 85-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Wisconsin Milwaukee UNDER (#871-872) Detroit wants to run and gun, exactly what they were able to do on the road at Wisconsin-Milwaukee last week. The Titans played the game at their pace, and won outright as 3 point underdogs, 81-74. The first meeting between these two teams was played at Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s pace, right here in Detroit. The game was tied at 61-61 at the end of regulation, staying Under the closing total of 150 even after overtime. So what should we expect from the third meeting? Wisc- Milwaukee head coach LaVall Jordan tell you himself: “They didn’t see the best version of us this past Friday, and so we get a chance to redeem ourselves from that…. Guarding them without fouling is a big deal, and us trying to control the pace. I thought we did a better job in Game 1 than we did in Game 2. They play up and down, they score a lot of points and then they try to make you play faster than you normally play. In Game 2, they did that. We have to respond better.” Neither team shoots particularly well, from the floor or from the free throw line. For this game to get Over the total, it’s going to take a fast pace, something the Panthers are clearly focused on preventing. That makes this game worthy of an Under wager in afternoon action on Friday. Take the Under. |
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03-02-17 | Manhattan v. Rider -5.5 | Top | 68-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Rider (#770) The Broncs struggled against the Jaspers in the first meeting between these two teams back in January. Rider shot poorly and clanked a bunch of free throws, just 17-29 from the charity stripe, while Manhattan hit 28-35 (80%) from the free throw line in a three point home victory. The rematch less than two weeks ago was a tale of two halves. Manhattan scored 53 points before halftime, taking a nine point lead into the break. Finally, in the second half, Rider figured out how to solve Steve Masiello’s pressing defense and they blew the Jaspers off the court in a 49-29 second half rout. I have full confidence that Rider’s second half success from the last meeting will carry over tonight – they know how to beat this team now! And let’s be honest – this season has been a disaster for Manhattan. A loss here and this 10-21 team can call it a season. It’s surely worth noting that the Jaspers have lost each of their last five away from home by double digit margins, including a 23 point loss right here in Albany against Siena in February. Masiello: “We’re not built to, and nor will I ever build to say ‘let’s get 92 and let them get 90’. It’s just not who I am philosophically. There’s nothing wrong with that, I just don’t know how to play that way. When you don’t get stops, I don’t care how many scoring options you have; in our system, it’s not going to equate to success. It’s about getting stops.” The problem, of course, is that they haven’t gotten stops, ranked #9 in the MACC in defensive efficiency during league play. They’ve allowed 78+ in eight of their nine road losses in conference, and have allowed 51% shooting over their last five games. Rider averaged 98 points per game while going 3-0 SU and ATS down the stretch. This is a senior laden squad -- four senior starters, all of whom average in double digits in the scoring column -- with a legit shot to make a run in this tourney, and they know it. Head coach Kevin Baggett: “Our guys are excited. We have some momentum, but we’ve had momentum going into the tournament before and lost. We’ll focus on the one game, Manhattan, and making sure that we’re ready to go and knowing exactly what we need to do to win the game.” Senior Jimmy Taylor, the team’s leading scorer, on how they beat up on Manhattan in the second half of the last meeting: “Tell everyone to stay aggressive, stay confident in their shots, we are capable of scoring and if the shots aren’t falling, keep shooting. Go inside to our big men, if their shots are falling, then it opens up guys on the perimeter from 3 and, if those fall, it opens up more, we just feed off of each other.” Expect more of the same tonight in a game with legit ‘blowout’ potential. Big Ticket: Take Rider. |
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03-02-17 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -7.5 | 73-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#740) Big man Reggie Lynch is a real problem for Nebraska’s struggling offense. Lynch averages 3.4 blocks per game, but he’s been even better than that lately, coming off an 11 block, 0 foul effort against Penn State last weekend. Nebraska isn’t loaded with strong perimeter shooters – their offensive gameplan relies on the ability to drive the ball to the basket. An interior force like Lynch is a huge obstacle to the Cornhuskers offensive success. Nebraska head coach Tim Miles: “We have to understand what it’s like to go against a shot-blocker. Certain guys do that better than others, but they’re clear on what’s expected.” It’s certainly not like Nebraska has been playing good basketball of late. Miles is clearly on the hot seat for a team that is 3-10 SU in their last 13 games. They’ve been bombed repeatedly on the highway, losing by 16 at Michigan State, by 11 at Iowa and by 12 at Northwestern in recent road tilts; 0-3 ATS. They’re coming off a confidence sapping blowout loss at home to Illinois this past weekend; a team with a ‘glass chin’ right now, unable to respond well to adversity. Minnesota spent a good portion of the season struggling to cover numbers as a favorite. That has changed in recent weeks, a team that is most assuredly gelling at the right time. They’ve won seven straight heading into tonight, with five of those victories coming by nine points or more, in large part due to their dominance on the glass and their strong interior defense. And with Minnesota closing out games well at the free throw line (75% over the last five games), this price range is very reasonable to support the better team at home against a reeling foe. Take Minnesota. |
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03-01-17 | Michigan State v. Illinois -2 | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#560) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner supporting the Illini in their blowout win at Nebraska on Sunday. Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up for that game, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “Illini head coach Jim Groce has been pounding a ‘Climb the Ladder’ mantra as Illinois has bounced back from a terrible start to the Big 10 campaign, a ‘one game at a time’ mentality to get back into ‘Bubble’ consideration. “We can’t control a month from now. We can’t rewind and change the result of a game. We can’t do that. What we can do is learn from every circumstance and work to get better every day. That’s really all we’re talking about right now.” And the team has bought into that mentality, winning three straight – all as underdogs -- and four of their last five. Point guard Te’Jon Lucas: “If we hear somebody talking about, we tell them we’ve got to focus on the next game. That’s what dictates the future. Of course you’ve got the future and know about the tournament and stuff, but you’ve got to win the next game to get there. You’ve got to focus on winning games and playing to the best of our ability.” More Groce: “We've continued to find a formula that would give us a chance to win basketball games and compete, and it has here for a couple weeks. It's not automatic. You have to choose mentally and physically to continue to play the way we've played. Hopefully the success here recently will convince them more mentally and physically to continue to play the way we have." Make no mistake about it. While the Spartans full season defensive numbers are superior to Illinois, the Illini defense is playing at a VERY high level right now. Over the last six games, the Illini have held opponents under 40% shooting. Michigan State, on the road, for the season? How about 47% shooting allowed! The Spartans have only two road wins all season, one of which came by a single point in overtime, the other at struggling Nebraska; not a team that has put it together away from home at any point this year. They’ve lost by 17 and 29 in their last two road games, both non-competitive losses, and I’m not expecting a major turnaround tonight against the streaking, undervalued Illini. Take Illinois. |
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02-28-17 | Fresno State +5 v. Boise State | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Fresno St (#753) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Fresno State last week in their outright upset win as eight point underdogs at San Diego State. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “Fresno won nine straight games down the stretch last year (8-1 ATS) capturing the Mountain West Tournament title at the end of that streak; a streak that began in mid-February, as Rodney Terry’s team played their best basketball at this stage of the campaign. And, fresh off back-2-back-2-back wins and covers, the Bulldogs appear to be peaking at the right time again this year. “Coach Terry, talking about their success running their halfcourt offense in a win over New Mexico last week: “It definitely gives you some confidence to be able to do that… we’re just getting to a point right now where we’re able to play through some guys, and when you’re able to get older and get some experience, you’re able to do that and control that a lot more, say, ‘Hey, this is what we want on this possession and let’s execute right now.’ ” “Senior forward Paul Watson: “Each possession, you have to value the ball. That’s something we haven’t done as well as we did last year, but it’s definitely something we’re working on. You have to get a shot up every possession. You can’t afford to turn it over. You have to get a good look and give yourself a chance.” While Fresno offers real ‘bet-on’ potential right now, Boise has most assuredly been an overvalued commodity in recent weeks. The Broncos are on an 0-6 ATS slide, burning their backers repeatedly. In recent tries as home chalk, Boise couldn’t pull away from Utah State or Air Force or Wyoming or San Jose St. And ‘Senior Night’ in Boise isn’t a difference maker for a team with only three seniors, none of whom average more than nine points per game. Ride the hot, fade the cold. Take Fresno St |
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02-27-17 | Oklahoma +14.5 v. Kansas | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma (#529) It’s senior night in Lawrence, which means one thing: the betting markets are going to inflate the home court edge for Kansas this evening. That leaves a Kansas team that has truly been a miserable favorite all year in a pointspread range they are not likely to cover; an over-valued commodity this evening. The results don’t lie. Kansas is a 25% ATS proposition at home this year, cashing only three winning bets on this floor all season! They’re 3-8 ATS when laying -12 or higher, not a team that builds and maintains big margins very easily. It’s not like the Jayhawks have dominated this series either. Their last win against Oklahoma by enough of a margin to cover tonight’s pointspread came back in 2012; Lon Kruger’s first season on the job And while the market’s are knee-jerking towards the Jayhawks with ‘senior night for Frank Mason and company on their minds, it’s worth noting several key factors here. First, Kansas is adjusting their starting lineup to reflect senior night. Tyler Self, the coach’s son with 19 minutes of playing time all year, will get the start tonight. Secondly, and just as importantly, Bill Self has one goal tonight – win the game, and let Frank Mason and Landon Lucas get the standing ovations coming off the court that they deserve. The end game here in the final few minutes is far more about standing ovations than maintaining big margins. There’s ample respect between Lon Kruger and Bill Self, and this is no ‘run up the score’ spot. Frankly, Oklahoma might well be able to give them a competitive game throughout, playing their best basketball of the year right now. The Sooners have been great in this role all year, a perfect 5-0 ATS as double digit underdogs. They’ve covered the spread in four straight games, including tight, competitive contests on the road at Baylor (six point loss) and at Oklahoma State (four point loss). A similar margin tonight would be no surprise for this bettor! Take Oklahoma. |
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02-26-17 | Illinois +4 v. Nebraska | 73-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#845) Nebraska can’t be laying points to anyone expect true bottom feeders right now, while the Illini are on an upward surge, finally breaking through on the road. Put those two factors together and the Huskers are an easy fade as favorites tonight in a game they’ll be hard pressed to win, let alone winning by any sort of margin! Illini head coach Jim Groce has been pounding a ‘Climb the Ladder’ mantra as Illinois has bounced back from a terrible start to the Big 10 campaign, a ‘one game at a time’ mentality to get back into ‘Bubble’ consideration. “We can’t control a month from now. We can’t rewind and change the result of a game. We can’t do that. What we can do is learn from every circumstance and work to get better every day. That’s really all we’re talking about right now.” And the team has bought into that mentality, winning three of their last four including their first two quality road wins of the season, at Northwestern and Iowa – two teams that are much better than Nebraska right now. Point guard Te’Jon Lucas: “If we hear somebody talking about, we tell them we’ve got to focus on the next game. That’s what dictates the future. Of course you’ve got the future and know about the tournament and stuff, but you’ve got to win the next game to get there. You’ve got to focus on winning games and playing to the best of our ability.” While the young Illini have finally learned how to win in SU fashion on the highway, the Huskers are falling apart. Head coach Tim Miles is clearly on the hot seat for a team that is 3-9 SU in their last dozen games. It’s surely worth noting that two of the three wins came by 3 points and 1 point, not enough to cover the -4 they’re being asked to lay today. And this is not a particularly strong homecourt these days either – they’ve lost in Lincoln to Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwestern and Wisconsin in Big 10 play. ‘Live dog’ here! Take Illinois. |
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02-25-17 | Purdue v. Michigan OVER 140 | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Purdue OVER (#629-630) The Wolverines are a dead nuts Over team when stepping up in class, against strong offensive foes. Why? Because Michigan’s offense is pretty darn efficient, but their defense is spotty at best! When the Wolverines faced the Boilermakers earlier this season, Purdue’s inside/outside balance gave the Wolverines fits as Purdue shot 53% from the floor in a 17 point win. The UCLA game stands out as well; another game against a strong offensive foe in which the Wolverines defense was hopeless, right from the opening tip; a game where the Bruins scored 102 points, flying Over the total by 40. The stats show it very clearly. The Wolverines rank #12 out of 14 Big 10 teams in defensive efficiency. They rank #327 in the country defending the three point line. They don’t force many turnovers either, leading to consistently poor defensive showings against the elite offensive teams. Purdue ranks among the Top 20 teams in the country in offensive efficiency, and I expect Purdue to approach or exceed their point total from the first meeting. Michigan struggled offensively at Purdue: only seven made free throws, less than 38% shooting overall and just 24% shooting from three point range. But the Wolverines still had a strong assist-to-turnover ratio in that game, and the Wolverines offense is a completely different animal in Ann Arbor, where they have scored 76 points per game on 49% shooting for the full season. They’ve hung 90 on Indiana and 86 on Michigan State in recent games at Crisler Arena; primed for another offensive outburst here. Take the OVER. |
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02-25-17 | Baylor v. Iowa State -2 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#582) My clients and I have cashed three winning bets supporting Iowa State here in February, and there’s little reason to think that the betting markets have caught up with the streaking Cyclones! Here are some recent quotes, telling the story of Iowa State’s recent surge: 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six ballgames, the lone loss coming on the road in Austin by a single bucket. Head coach Steve Prohm: “I think we have tough kids, that helps. You stay focused on the present, then you have a chance to continue to get better.” Senior guard Naz Mitrou-Long: “It definitely feels awesome to be playing our best basketball of the season (down the stretch)….We just want to go 1-0. That’s been our motto the whole year. Win the day. It’s an awesome position to be in, but we’re not done.” Point guard Monte Morris: “We’re still waiting for that night when everybody is on fire. I feel like it’s coming soon. It’s the best time to play basketball, going into March. I’m glad we’re peaking right now as opposed to early December.” And the Cyclones will have particular focus for this game, facing a Baylor team that has beaten them five straight times since the start of the 2014-2015 season. All five of those Bears victories came by nine points or less – competitive games – including a one point loss, a two point loss and an OT loss for the Cyclones. At home, this veteran, senior laden squad is primed for some payback! Baylor has been a consistent moneyloser, just 5-10 ATS since their 13-0 start earned them a #1 overall ranking and left them completely overvalued to the talent level on hand. Baylor’s only SU wins in February have come against Big 12 bottom feeders: Oklahoma & TCU, with the lone exception of a 54% shooting effort in a three point win at Oklahoma State. I’m not expecting the Bears to approach 54% shooting this afternoon…. Take Iowa State. |
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02-22-17 | Fresno State +8.5 v. San Diego State | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Fresno State (#755) All four meetings between these two schools over the past two years have been EXTREMELY tight. San Diego State won by 3 and by 6 in overtime. Fresno State won by 5 and by 1. And there’s little reason to think that tonight’s game will be dramatically different from those recent meetings. It’s late February. San Diego State has a grand total of THREE pointspread covers at home for the entire season! Attendance is down at Viejas Arena – after 80 consecutive regular season sellouts, the Aztecs haven’t filled the building in their last four tries; not even against rival UNLV this past weekend. Even the students didn’t collect their full allotment of tickets for the game against the Rebels. One of the toughest homecourts in college basketball in recent seasons just isn’t so tough in 2017. San Diego State also has a real problem with blowing leads. They’ve done it in each of their last two games, letting double digit leads in the second half shrink into ‘stress level’ territory; not atypical for a team that just doesn’t have a go-to’ scorer to stem opposing runs. No surprise, then, that the Aztecs are just 2-7 ATS when laying -7.5 or higher this year, a bad pointspread role for Steve Fisher’s squad. Fresno won nine straight games down the stretch last year (8-1 ATS) capturing the Mountain West Tournament title at the end of that streak; a streak that began in mid-February, as Rodney Terry’s team played their best basketball at this stage of the campaign. And, fresh off back-2-back wins, the Bulldogs appear to be peaking at the right time again this year. Coach Terry, talking about their success running their halfcourt offense in a win over New Mexico this past weekend: “It definitely gives you some confidence to be able to do that… we’re just getting to a point right now where we’re able to play through some guys, and when you’re able to get older and get some experience, you’re able to do that and control that a lot more, say, ‘Hey, this is what we want on this possession and let’s execute right now.’ ” Senior forward Paul Watson: “Each possession, you have to value the ball. That’s something we haven’t done as well as we did last year, but it’s definitely something we’re working on. You have to get a shot up every possession. You can’t afford to turn it over. You have to get a good look and give yourself a chance.” Expect the Bulldogs to ‘give themselves a chance’ to win this one in SU fashion! Take Fresno. |
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02-22-17 | Oklahoma State +4 v. Kansas State | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma State (#735) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Kansas State as favorites in their last home game, a straight up loss to Iowa State. And there’s ample reason to think that Bruce Weber’s squad will be hard pressed to notch the SU win tonight, let alone pulling away to win this game by margin. The Wildcats are in a world of hurt right now, losers of five of their last seven. The two victories came by a combined five points, neither by enough of a margin to cover this pointspread. As a ‘bubble’ team, the betting markets are factoring ‘must win’ into this equation, even though the Wildcats have lost four of their last five at home while failing repeatedly in other recent ‘must win’ spots. Let’s not forget about the struggles for Bruce Weber’s squad laying points, just 2-6 ATS as single digit favorites this season. Bruce Weber’s players have a ‘we’re not playing well at home’ mentality right now, never a good thing for any home favorite. Guard Wesley Iwundu: “I think we carry a different mentality when we play on the road than we do at home. I think we’re too comfortable at home and it shows in the beginning of games.” Guard Barry Brown: “Maybe it’s just the fact that we don’t feel like people expect us to win on the road so we have a little more fire under us. We shouldn’t have as many losses as we do at home, especially in a row. It’s really bad right now.” Oklahoma State’s loss to Kansas State at home was their low point of the season, as they fell to 0-6 in Big 12 play. It marked a turning point for first year head coach Brad Underwood. Since that defeat, the Cowboys are 8-1 SU, the lone loss coming by only three points to Baylor. That includes SU and ATS road wins at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU during that span! Underwood, talking about the turnaround: “It’s a multitude of things. Implementing a new style or a new system was part of it. It’s a culture change. It was up to me as we got into league play, I had to figure a few things out in terms of what was working and what was not working and what we could do. We made some subtle changes defensively and those have helped. We’ve been a good offensive team throughout so we’ve been able to tweak some things there and continue to be efficient on that end of the court…. The one thing I’m really proud of is it speaks volumes to the character in our locker room. The changes helped, but it’s really a tribute to the players and the locker room and their accountability to each other has been instrumental.” Ride the hot, fade the cold! Take Oklahoma State. |
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02-22-17 | Duke -3 v. Syracuse | 75-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#723) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Syracuse at home last week against Louisville. We cashed another winning bet against the Orange when they faced Georgia Tech on the road this past Saturday. And there’s no reason to think that Jim Boeheim’s squad is suddenly about to turn things around as they face off against mighty Duke at home tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last anti-Orange write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “Syracuse has no depth whatsoever. Tyler Lydon has played every minute of Syracuse's last ninegames, including all 45 minutes of both overtime games the Orange have played during this span. Andrew White has also played every minute of every one of those games. John Gillon has averaged 40 minutes per game over the last six games for the Orange. I'm not convinced this team will have much spring in their step come crunch time here.” Syracuse has another problem besides depth for this matchup. Boeheim’s zone isn’t working against opposing three point shooters, in part because of those tired legs from key starters. In ACC play, the Orange have allowed opponents to hit better than 40% from beyond the arc. That’s an emerging defensive weakness that the sharp shooting Blue Devils, best in the ACC at draining three pointers (better than 40% in conference play) are primed to exploit. The Blue Devils won by eight points on their last visit to the Carrier Dome. They’ve been winning tough games in hostile environments all season, including SU road wins at Virginia, Notre Dame and Wake Forest, in their last three tries. And Duke’s ability to convert at the free throw line (83% in their last five games!) gives them a legitimate opportunity to extend this lead late, should we need it. Take Duke. |
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02-21-17 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Georgia Tech (#540) Georgia Tech has been mispriced since Day 1 this year, and they’re still mispriced here in late February, with the betting markets simply unwilling to regard the Yellow Jackets as a quality squad. It’s easy to understand why – Josh Pastner’s squad wasn’t supposed to be any good this year, ranked ahead of only 9-19 Boston College in the preseason projections. This team was a 3.5 point home underdog to Ohio U from the MAC back in November, a clear illustrator of how far off the markets have been. The Ramblin’ Wreck are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 lined games. They’ve’ pulled off outright upsets at home against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame already in ACC play. They haven’t lost a home game since January 7th against mighty Louisville. The Yellow Jackets defensive numbers on this floor have truly been impressive, holding foes to 36% shooting for the SEASON. And let’s not forget how easily they beat the Wolfpack in the first meeting, back when NC State still cared; covering the spread wire-to-wire in a double digit road victory. Yellow Jackets guard Justin Moore: “Coach (Josh Pastner) always tells us each game is big, but I think these next couple games, the home stretch, is very key for us.” Guard Corey Heyward: “I think it’ll be intense….. we get our energy from our fans, so it’ll be fun.” A month ago, NC State appeared to be in pretty good shape. They were at 14-7 overall following an impressive 84-82 road win at Duke behind a 32 point outburst from Dennis Smith. Then the bottom dropped out. It’s been seven consecutive losses for the Wolfpack. Head coach Mark Gottfried has already been fired, but he’s in the awkward position of being a lame duck for the final few weeks of the season. We saw how NC State responded to the news of Gottfried’s impending departure – a no show, at home against Notre Dame. Don’t be fooled by the final score of that game – the Wolfpack were down by 13 at halftime and by 23 midway through the second half before Notre Dame backed off and started burning clock, leading to ‘only’ a nine point home loss. It’s surely worth noting that NC State shot 50% from the floor in that game yet they still lost and failed to cover. It’s hard to project the Wolfpack approaching or exceeding that type of shooting percentage tonight. The betting markets are fixating on the bad ‘spot’ for Georgia Tech, in a short turnaround situation off the big Sunday Night win over Syracuse. They’re not fixating on the bad spot for NC State, a dead team, playing out the string, who has been blitzed by 30, 24 and 25 points in their last three road tilts, all non-competitive efforts. Even Gottfried has given up on the regular season: “I told them in the locker room. I saw a team in there that can do some damage in Brooklyn, in the tournament, if we just keep our spirit alive. So that’s where I am.” A team with a lame duck coach who is 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games and already thinking about the ACC Tournament is NOT a bet-on squad, yet that’s exactly what the markets did this morning. Georgia Tech opened at -5.5, was bet down to -4.5 overnight and then to -3 this morning. That added value turns a good play into a Big Ticket worthy wager; a game I expect the home favorite to win rather comfortably. Big Ticket: Take Georgia Tech. |
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02-20-17 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Texas Tech | 82-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#715) Already here in February, my clients and I have cashed winning bets supporting Iowa State as a road dog at Kansas (rewarded with the Cyclones outright upset victory as 10.5 point underdogs) and at Kansas State (rewarded with another outright upset victory just last week). This isn’t new or different for Steve Prohm’s squad. They’ve pulled outright road upsets at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and lost by only two points in tight defeats at Baylor and Texas; consistent moneymakers on the highway. It’s surely worth noting that Iowa State gave the #1 team in the country, undefeated Gonzaga, their toughest test of the season in neutral site non-conference tournament action, losing by a single bucket to the Zags at the Advocare Invitational over Thanksgiving. Catching +2.5 or higher this season, Iowa State is 6-1 ATS, the lone loss coming by less than a bucket at home against the mighty Jayhawks. Plain and simple – this is Iowa State’s best role, catching points away from home. Head coach Steve Prohm: “I think we have tough kids, that helps playing well on the road. We’re defending better on the road, that helps, too, and we’ve shot it well…. We’re trying to beat Texas Tech on Monday night, that’d be one win for us and that’s it. You do that and stay focused on the present, then you have a chance to continue to get better.” Senior guard Naz Mitrou-Long, following their home win over TCU on Saturday: “It definitely feels awesome to be playing our best basketball of the season (down the stretch). It was a collective group effort. Now we have to go to Lubbock and get a huge road win….We just want to go 1-0. That’s been our motto the whole year. Win the day. It’s an awesome position to be in, but we’re not done.” Point guard Monte Morris: “We’re still waiting for that night when everybody is on fire. I feel like it’s coming soon. It’s the best time to play basketball, going into March. I’m glad we’re peaking right now as opposed to early December.” Texas Tech is coming off a brutal scheduling cycle that leaves them short on both energy and confidence in this quick turnaround spot. The Red Raiders are coming off a crushing double OT loss at West Virginia on the heels of one point losses to Kansas and TCU the previous week; the type of late season defeats that can really deflate a team’s psyche in the dog days before conference tournaments start in March. And the short turnaround certainly won’t help Chris Beard’s squad tonight. Key rotation cogs Keenan Evans, Zack Smith and Niem Stevenson all were on the floor for more than 40 minutes in that double OT defeat on Saturday. Expect tired legs and a bruised psyche to be highly problematic for the Red Raiders down the stretch here! Take Iowa State |
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02-19-17 | Syracuse v. Georgia Tech +2.5 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Georgia Tech (#870) The latest Joe Lunardi projections have Syracuse among the last four teams in and Georgia Tech among the last four teams out. The Orange have an RPI just two spots lower than the Yellow Jackets. While there’s no such thing as a ‘Big Dance Elimination Game’ prior to the start of the tournament, the loser of this game will likely be sweating out Selection Sunday far more than the winner. The atmosphere at McCarnish Pavilion will be special on Sunday. The Yellow Jackets haven’t been to the Big Dance since 2010. There’s a rare sellout this evening; only the third sellout of the season, with fans planning a ‘whiteout’. Guard Justin Moore: “Coach (Josh Pastner) always tells us each game is big, but I think these next couple games, the home stretch, is very key for us.” Guard Corey Heyward: “I think it’ll be intense…..sellout (crowd) — we get our energy from our fans, so it’ll be fun.” It’s not like Syracuse has been going on the road and hammering teams all year. The Orange have a grand total of two road victories in eight tries. One came by a single point, the other came in overtime. Defensively, this team has consistently struggled executing Jim Boeheim’s matchup zone defense; allowing 51% shooting for the season on the highway. Syracuse has no depth whatsoever. Tyler Lydon has played every minute of Syracuse’s last seven games, including all 45 minutes of both overtime games the Orange have played during this span. Andrew White has also played every minute of every one of those games. John Gillon has averaged more than 40 minutes per game over the last six games for the Orange. I’m not convinced this team will have much spring in their step come crunch time here. Georgia Tech gave Syracuse fits last year (a three point spread covering loss at Syracuse), and the year before (a one point, spread covering home loss); a perfect 3-0 ATS against the Orange since they became conference rivals. The Yellow Jackets defensive numbers on this floor have truly been impressive, holding foes to 36% shooting for the SEASON. Josh Pastner’s squad has pulled off outright upsets at home against North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame already in ACC play. Another outright upset here would be no surprise to this bettor! Take Georgia Tech. |
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02-18-17 | USC +10 v. UCLA | 70-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Take USC (#657) USC beat UCLA in all three meetings last year, and none of them were particularly close. The Trojans beat the Bruins by 19 here at the Galen Center, by 14 at Pauley Pavilion and by 24 in the PAC-12 Tournament at the MGM Grand in Vegas. The first meeting between these two teams this year wasn’t much closer. USC led by double digits at halftime and rolled to victory as seven point underdogs. That’s four meetings over the last two years, all four of which were covered by USC by more than ten points. But the betting markets do what betting markets do; using long term power rating numbers to set pointspreads; hence the Trojans being installed as double digit underdogs again tonight. And, quite frankly, other than your standard ‘revenge’ motif, there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Bruins match up any better with the Trojans this time around compared to any recent meeting. Let’s not forget that UCLA shot 48% in the first meeting compared to 40% shooting from USC, yet the Bruins still lost by margin. It’s also worth noting that the Trojans didn’t have big man Bennie Boatwright for that game; averaging more than 15 points per game since his return from injury and coming off a three block effort against Oregon. UCLA has one fatal flaw when it comes to pointspreads in this range – the Bruins don’t play shutdown defense; unable to consistently get stops against solid offensive foes like the Trojans. Steve Alford’s squad has failed to cover 19 of their last 26 against PAC-12 competition, including non-covers as double digit favorites against Oregon State, Washington State, Stanford and Cal in recent weeks. Take USC. |
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02-18-17 | SMU -3 v. Houston | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Take SMU (#611) SMU is ranked #23 in the coaches poll, and they are only short road favorites at Houston today. Both the pointspread and the ranking show a clear disrespect for a team that is arguably the most undervalued commodity in the country right now! Sure, SMU was not clicking on all cylinders in November, with Tim Jankovich taking over for Hall of Fame head coach Larry Brown. They lost early season games to Boise, USC and Michigan; none of which were pretty. The markets knee-jerked (as they do), thinking ‘SMU is down this year’. The markets were wrong and ten weeks later, they STILL haven’t adjusted enough! SMU is 19-1 SU in their last 20 ballgames, the lone loss coming by a single bucket at 22-3 Cincinnati, another under-rated team. They’ve been a pointspread machine, cashing 13 winning bets in their last 16 lined contests, and they were -16 or higher in all three games that they didn’t cover. SMU annihilated Houston in the first meeting, an 85-64 blowout that was ugly for the Cougars from the opening tip. And yet they’re still only short road chalk here! Houston is hot: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five games. But all five of those games came against the weak sisters of the AAC; all sub .500 squads in conference play. The Cougars have tried to step up in class three times in conference, against SMU, Cinci and Memphis. They lost all three of those games SU and ATS. If you’re looking for a ‘signature’ win from Kelvin Sampson’s team this year, you won’t find one. Houston can beat the weak, but they cannot hang tough with the strong. SMU isn’t just strong; they’re VERY strong and remain undervalued. And after getting upset on this floor last year, the Mustangs won’t take their in-state rivals lightly here! Take SMU. |
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02-18-17 | Michigan State v. Purdue -9.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Purdue (#572) There’s a class difference between these two squads that is not fully reflected in this pointspread, offering legitimate value on the Boilermakers side in this relatively cheap price range. But more than any other factor, this bet is about Purdue NOT being ranked among the Top 16 teams by the NCAA Selection Committee earlier in the week, a real motivator for a team with something to prove on Saturday in front of a national TV audience! There was nothing fraudulent about Purdue’s eleven point win in East Lansing last month. The Boilermakers were bigger and more physical in the paint, dominating the glass behind a huge effort from Caleb Swanigan ; an elite big man that Sparty just can’t match up with. Young Michigan State got rattled and fell apart – and that was at home, with ample crowd support – despite a huge 33 point effort from Miles Bridges. And it’s certainly not going to get any easier for Tom Izzo’s squad today! Michigan State has been burning money on the highway all year. They lost by 29 at Michigan in their last road tilt, on the heels of losses & non-covers at Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State (in Philly) in Big 10 action. Meanwhile, Purdue has been a serious moneymaker as home favorites (9-3 ATS), while going 11-2 ATS as bigger favorites of -7.5 or higher, simply dominating lesser competition. This year, right now, Michigan State can only be described as ‘lesser competition’. Take Purdue. |
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02-17-17 | Fairfield -1 v. Quinnipiac | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Fairfield (#871) The road team has won every meeting between these two schools dating back to 2014, including a two point Quinnipiac victory in the first meeting this year, less than two weeks ago. That’s the only loss the Stags have suffered in their last six contests overall; a stretch that included a 20 point blowout win in their lone road tilt. Fairfield has won away from home at Manhattan, Boston College, Rider, Wagner and Dartmouth; a veteran squad worthy of support when playing in hostile environments. The Bobcats win at Fairfield was as frustrating as it gets for the Stags. Fairfield led by 11 with seven minutes left before a 19-6 game ending run by Quinnipiac. Bobcats head coach Tom Moore, after the game: “I thought Fairfield was on fumes (exhausted) and..… I just think we were really locked in defensively down the stretch. They scored a few times, but our poise and our composure on offense. … (freshman guard) Peter Kiss took over the last four minutes of the game.” Fairfield head coach Sydney Johnson, following the loss: “I thought we had very poor shot selection, very poor. And then, instead of relying on our defense to close out the game, we were hoping to get it back offensively. I was very disappointed in our shot selection, but we have to learn from it….This is the same team that’s been brilliant defensively these last three games. We had some good moments tonight. This has always been an intense, rivalry game. There was great emotion, but we have to know that we didn’t do our best those last six, seven minutes ….They gutted out the win. We could have done better, to be honest. Credit to Quinnipiac but we have to play better defense and take better shots.” Quinnipiac had a listed attendance of 575 fans in their last home game, a 76-45 loss to St Peter’s; not exactly a particularly hostile home court. Siena beat them here by margin, as did Drexel, Monmouth, Columbia and Vermont. The Bobcats have notched only two wins in their last seven games, a team just biding their time until the MAAC tourney rolls around in two weeks. Facing a particularly focused Stags squad, I’m not expecting the Bobcats to notch the season sweep against a superior team. Take Fairfield. |
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02-16-17 | Arizona State +2 v. Washington | 83-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#753) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winning bets playing AGAINST the Washington Huskies in PAC-12 action. Tonight’s game against Arizona State provides another prime opportunity to fade Lorenzo Romar’s struggling squad. The Huskies are what they are: a one-and-done NBA training ground. They lost DeJounte Murray and Marquese Chriss to the NBA after their freshmen seasons last year, both unexpected departures. And this year’s phenom, Markelle Fultz is certainly worth the hype, with legit #1 overall pick potential. But Fultz is hurt; a huge absence – he’s the only player in the country averaging at least 20 points, six rebounds and six assists per game. Fultz has been back at practice this week, but it doesn’t look as if he’s going to suit up tonight. Head coach Lorenzo Romar: “Each day is different with it. If he continues to make progress we’re probably more optimistic than pessimistic. He’s been running around, shooting, ball-handling a little bit.” Fultz is officially a ‘gametime decision’ here, but the betting markets don’t expect him to play and even if he does, I’m not convinced he’ll be anywhere near 100%. The Huskies – losers of seven straight, and just 7-7 SU at home this year including losses as favorites against Yale, Nevada and Washington State, among others – are worth fading whether Fultz suits up here or not. Arizona State has been an undervalued commodity of late, 5-2 ATS in their last seven ballgames. They’ve been excellent road dogs in PAC-12 play, winning SU and ATS at Stanford and Oregon State while hanging tough in some very hostile environments – losing by only 1 at Oregon and by only 3 at USC, covering the spread by a combined 22 points in those games. Bobby Hurley’s squad is a deadly perimeter shooting team, bad news against the Huskies porous three point defense; allowing 40% from beyond the arc for the SEASON! The Sun Devils hit their free throws (something the Huskies consistently struggle with). Arizona State won on this floor two years ago, took the Huskies to OT here last year and beat Washington by 11 as -4 favorites in the first meeting this year. Wrong team favored…..Take Arizona State. |
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02-15-17 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Kansas State | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#549) My clients and I bet on Iowa State as a road dog at Kansas less than two weeks ago, rewarded with the Cyclones outright upset victory as 10.5 point underdogs. This isn’t new or different for Steve Prohm’s squad. They’ve pulled outright road upsets at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and lost by only two points in tight defeats at Baylor and Texas; consistent moneymakers on the highway. It’s surely worth noting that Iowa State gave the #1 team in the country, undefeated Gonzaga, their toughest test of the season in neutral site non-conference tournament action, losing by a single bucket to the Zags at the Advocare Invitational over Thanksgiving. Catching +3 or higher this season, Iowa State is 100% ATS, a perfect 5-0 in this role. Kansas State’s lone win in their last six tries against the Cyclones came by a single point; consistently struggling against their high octane foe. And the Wildcats are in a world of hurt right now, losers of five of their last six, the lone victory coming by a single bucket. As a ‘bubble’ team, the betting markets are factoring ‘must win’ into this equation, even though the Wildcats have lost three of their last four at home while failing repeatedly in other recent ‘must win’ spots. Let’s not forget about the struggles for Bruce Weber’s squad laying points, just 1-5 ATS as single digit favorites this season. Even if the Wildcats win this one – and that’s a big ‘if’ – I’m not expecting any sort of margin whatsoever. Take Iowa State. |
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