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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-17-18 | Utah State +10 v. Boise State | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah State (#767) This is the mother of all ‘step-up’ spots for the Utah State Aggies tonight after they suffered their worst loss of the year at Nevada over the weekend; a game where the Wolfpack had the -13 spread covered less than ten minutes into the game. Aggies forward Dwayne Brown Jr was not amused: “We didn’t execute, we weren’t ready, we weren’t focused and it shows on the stat line……We can be sad and worry about or we can move on. I think we should move on and get ready for Boise. Yeah, we had turnovers, but it doesn’t define us as a team.” Head coach Tim Duryea was not amused either: “You have to set your jaw, dig your feet in and make a stand when you play here. We did not start the game that way. We made a little run there and got within five points, then showed no willingness to compete. … I thought we were really flat. Just really an embarrassing effort. A flat start, no resistance defensively, just not in the mindset to compete and compete as hard as you have to.” I’m expecting an ‘A’ level effort from the Aggies tonight – period. And this has been a remarkably competitive series, where taking points has been consistently profitable. Last year’s games were both Boise wins, by a combined total of five points. In fact, only once in the last eight meetings has either team won by more than six points. The -10 here is an outlier pointspread given the nature of this rivalry. And this is the mother of all ‘sandwich’ spots for the Boise State Broncos (read more about that here: https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/basketball/broncos-focused-on-utah-state-with-big-game-at-nevada/article_e2c411b7-d1d0-5c85-a9fb-9fd25646d43a.html ) They’re coming off a huge win against conference favorite San Diego State, with an equally huge game in Reno against the other Mountain West heavyweight (Nevada) coming up next. Expect a battle, not a blowout! Big Ticket: Take Utah State. |
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01-17-18 | Iowa v. Rutgers | 64-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#741) Forget what Rutgers was last week – a trough, physical team that took Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad into overtime. That was then, this is now. The injury to team captain Mike Williams has (and will continue to have) an enormous impact on the Scarlet Knights fortunes. Read this article for more details: https://www.onthebanks.com/2018/1/14/16891712/mike-williams-injury-leaves-hole-for-rutgers-scarlet-knights-basketball-against-ohio-state-buckeyes The beauty of the Williams injury (suffered in practice on Saturday) is that he’s not a starter, so the markets haven’t made a significant adjustment. But make no mistake about it – Williams was the first guy off the bench and an unquestioned team leader. Head coach Steve Pikiell: “Mike has been, from day one, a fighter. Mike’s a leader. He’s a captain. He grabbed nine rebounds against Michigan State. He’s our leading rebounder at 6-2. He’s an over achiever. Mike is certainly a huge loss for us.” Without Williams available against Ohio State on Sunday, Pikiell used Souf Mensah and Jake Dadika in his place. That duo responded with a combined total of one point and four rebounds in 20 floor minutes, as Rutgers was blown out at the RAC for the first time all season, losing by 22 in a non-competitive effort. Iowa, on the other hand, just got the confidence inspiring win they desperately needed; winning an OT thriller at Illinois for their first Big 10 victory. The Hawkeyes beat the Scarlet Knights by 20 on this floor last year and by 14 the year before that. I do NOT believe the gap between these two programs has closed as much as this pick ‘em market price would indicate. Read more about Iowa’s mentality here: http://qctimes.com/sports/basketball/college/big-10/iowa/hawkeyes-aware-rutgers-is-no-longer-a-pushover/article_6816542c-c627-5bb1-8954-ee0c1210cd25.html Take Iowa. |
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01-16-18 | Oklahoma -1.5 v. Kansas State | 69-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma (#539) For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://newsok.com/sooners-trying-to-shed-bramlage-struggles/article/5579659 https://www.foxsports.com/kansas-city/story/kansas-city-wildcats-turn-focus-to-stopping-oklahoma-sooners-star-trae-young-011518 Despite the fact that Oklahoma has clearly been the better of these two programs in recent seasons (prior to last year), the Sooners have struggled mightily in Manhattan, losing on each of their last five visits to Bramlage Coliseum. Expect that streak to end tonight in a game that the road favorite Sooners clearly have circled on their schedule! We’ve already seen Lon Kruger’s squad take care of business away from home with wins over Oregon, USC, Wichita State and TCU. Frosh sensation Trae Young has ignited his squad, a very difficult matchup for Bruce Weber’s Wildcats – it’s hard to shut down 30 points and ten assists per game, especially when the team surrounding him is loaded with sharpshooters. K- State is in hangover mode following a crushing one point loss to arch-rival Kansas over the weekend, and their defensive effort has lapsed while losing three of their last five, allowing just shy of 50% shooting during that span. The Wildcats lost by margin to West Virginia in their lone previous try as home underdogs this season; primed to take another defeat against a superior foe tonight. Take Oklahoma. |
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01-16-18 | Cincinnati v. UCF +8 | 49-38 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Take UCF (#524) For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/ucf-knights/knights-notepad/os-sp-ucf-cincinnati-basketball-0116-story.html http://www.blackandgoldbanneret.com/ucf-mens-basketball-prepares-no-12-cincinnati-will-b-j-taylor-return/ UCF is not a basketball school. The football team went undefeated this year while the basketball team is something of an afterthought. That wasn’t the case last year, when UCF won 24 games, including an impressive upset over Cincinnati on this floor. And from all indications, we can expect a particularly rowdy fan base at the CFE Arena in Orlando tonight. UCF head coach Johnny Dawkins, talking about the importance of the crowd tonight: “That was a big difference in our season last year. I think that everyone kind of threw themselves in and they became truly like our sixth man. They were a part of our team and when the environment is rocking like that, players just feed off that energy. It was exciting to see and hopefully we can have the same type of atmosphere [Tuesday].” The Knights have exactly what I’m looking for out of my home underdogs – they play defense and they rebound at an elite level. With 7-6 junior Tacko Fall patrolling the paint, UCF has held opponents to 37% shooting for the season, while winning the rebounding battle by nearly five boards per game. Cinci on the highway against good defenses? Well, they beat Temple by two points at -7.5 and lost to Xavier by 13 at +3, not exactly a track record of dominance. And with the total here in the low 120’s, I’m very comfortable grabbing +7.5 in what should be a very low scoring game; where margins for either team will be hard to come by. Take UCF. |
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01-14-18 | Ohio State v. Rutgers +7 | 68-46 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Rutgers (#822) Here’s the quote from Spartans head coach Tom Izzo after Rutgers took Michigan State to OT earlier in the Week as 22 point underdogs: “That’s the most physical team we've played, and that’s what I said...Tonight, we played a well-coached team that is as physical as the day is long.” That’s an issue for the ‘fat & happy’ Buckeyes, now 5-0 SU and ATS in Big 10 play and on the verge of a Top 25 ranking if they win today. To say that things have laid out well for a team that was projected to finish near the bottom of the conference, not the top, is something of an understatement, consistently playing the right teams at the right times. For example, their ‘tough’ test against Maryland at home earlier in the week was anything but tough, after a barrage of injuries left Mark Turgeon with only eight available scholarship players. Turgeon after the game “We don’t have a lot of depth. We’re starting guys that should be bench guys, and we’re playing guys that shouldn’t be playing right now, but that’s where we are.” But the broader betting markets don’t read the quotes to understand the nuances behind the final scores. What the markets see is ‘another Ohio State blowout win’ and they react accordingly. Rutgers, on the other hand, has quietly been cashing one winning bet after the next, including a 6-1 ATS mark here at the RAC, including outright upsets over the likes of Seton Hall and Wisconsin. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take Rutgers For additional reading, click this link: https://www.onthebanks.com/2018/1/14/16887768/rutgers-mens-basketball-game-19-preview-vs-ohio-state-buckeyes-chris-holtmann-steve-pikiell-big-ten |
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01-13-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State -1.5 | 64-65 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma State (#604) It’s been one heck of a week for the Texas Longhorns. On Tuesday, they found out that second leading scorer (and unquestioned team leader) Andrew Jones had leukemia, forced to leave the team. On Wednesday, they won by one in a double OT thriller against TCU with basically a six man rotation – Shaka Smart doesn’t have any sort of a bench these days. Four Longhorns played at least 41 minutes of floor time; Dylan Osetkowski and Matt Coleman finished with 49 minutes of gameplay. How Texas has to regroup off a truly emotionally and physically taxing stretch and win a game in Stillwater; no easy task. Four of Smart’s six rotation players are freshmen, and without Jones or injured guard Kerwin Roach(fractured hand) we can expect this team to have a hard time contending with a pressure defense on the highway. Let’s not forget the Longhorns struggles on the perimeter even when their guards were healthy; a team that doesn’t hit three pointers (under 30% for the season) or free throws (just 65% YTD) very well. Oklahoma State is primed to take advantage of the tired Longhorns today. Mike Boynton’s squad goes nine or ten deep, with no player averaging 30 minutes per game. The Cowboys have won 14 straight at home against unranked foes. They are a great free throw shooting team, #8 in the country at better than 78% for the season. And the Cowboys have the veteran presence in an expected tight game that the Longhorns lack, with fifth year seniors Kendall Smith and Jeffery Carroll leading the way. Cheap price to lay, given the matchups & the spot! Take Okie State. For additional reading, check out these links https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2018/01/11/reality-right-now-shaka-smart-reflects-emotional-day-after-andrew-jones-leukemia-diagnosis http://www.mystatesman.com/sports/emotions-aside-the-season-marches-texas-heads-oklahoma-state/jTymX0g3cuCwf62gA3EEiN/ |
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01-13-18 | Miami-FL +5 v. Clemson | 63-72 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Miami-FL (#559) (Abbreviated write-up for this early start game) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Miami in their last game as they knocked off Florida State. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “The numbers do not lie. Miami ranks #6 overall in the country in defensive efficiency. They are top ten in the country at defending the two point shot AND the three point shot, with shot blockers Dewan Huell and Ebuku Izundu cleaning up the low post. With a balanced offense – four double digit scorers – and strong rebounding numbers as well, the price is VERY cheap to support an elite squad in a strong spot with matchups that work in their favor.” Miami is an underdog today against a team that was picked eight spots below them in the preseason. They’re rested, off since last Sunday; in sharp contrast to a Clemson squad that just played (and lost) on Thursday Night. Brad Brownell’s squad has not been covering short numbers, 0-fer the season (four previous tries) as favorites of -7 or less, while Miami won SU in their lone previous try as a road underdog this season, beating Minnesota. Be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline here at +190 or higher. Take Miami. For additional reading, check out these links https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/quick-turnaround-for-tigers-clemson-plays-miami-less-than-hours/article_c8150dc4-f7d8-11e7-a3b5-43411657b9e2.html http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-hurricanes/fl-sp-um-hoops-acc-stretch-20180112-story.html |
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01-13-18 | South Carolina v. Georgia -4.5 | 64-57 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#538) (Abbreviated write-up for this early start game Georgia is coming off a rare stinker, outscored 48-33 after taking a halftime lead at Missouri on Wednesday. Everything went wrong for the Bulldogs – poor shooting, turnovers, an inability to get to the free throw line – the works. Returning home where they are 8-0 SU with only one ATS loss all season is the ideal elixir to get Mark Fox’s back on track. Meanwhile, Frank Martin’s Gamecocks have been blasted in every road game since the beginning of December; losing by 16 to Temple at Madison Square Garden, by 16 at Clemson, by five at Ole Miss and by 14 at Alabama, failing to cover the spread in any of those hostile environments. Take Georgia. For additional reading, check out these links: http://www.macon.com/sports/college/university-of-georgia/bulldogs-beat/uga-basketball/article194466329.html http://onlineathens.com/sports/dogbytes/2018-01-11/after-rare-game-uga-star-bulldogs-just-need-yante-be-yante# |
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01-12-18 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Penn State | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#833) My clients and I cashed a winner backing Nebraska as short home favorites over Wisconsin earlier in the week. And frankly, from all indications, the Cornhuskers are still an undervalued commodity as they travel to State College to take on the Nittany Lions tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up vs. Wisconsin. “Nebraska is just beginning a loaded stretch of four games in ten days. Senior guard Anton Gill: “That way (head coach Tim) Miles can’t keep us in practice for three hours…. This is where you find out if you’re a good team or not. If you come out of this with a positive record, if you can, you’ll have a chance at the (NCAA) tournament. If you can’t, you’re just another mediocre team. We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” With four double digit scorers, the Huskers have a balanced attack. They’ve won five of their last six games overall, including an impressive 15 point blowout on the road at Northwestern in the exact same pointspread range we find them in today. And from a pointspread perspective, the Huskers have been undervalued for the last month, a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven lined contests. Penn State’s Josh Reaves – their energy guy on defense and second leading assist man -- missed the Nittany Lions game at Indiana earlier in the week “attending to some academic concerns.” His return tonight is questionable at best. Penn State is not a good free throw shooting team, bad news in this spread range where late FT’s are a big piece of the equation. And Nebraska will certainly remember how Penn State ended their season with an OT loss in the Big 10 Tourney last March. No surprise here if this game comes down to the final possession, just like that last meeting did! Take Nebraska. For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/mens-basketball/miles-squad-stresses-need-to-create-own-energy-in-road/article_8cb28895-22bf-5599-8d33-fe837e0a75f0.html https://www.blackshoediaries.com/2018/1/12/16882382/penn-state-nebraska-basketball-preview-1-12-18-glynn-watson-tony-carr-isaac-copeland-lamar-stevens |
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01-11-18 | Clemson v. NC State +4 | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina State (#558) Clemson is in a classic college hoops ‘bet-against’ spot this evening as they travel to Raleigh to take on the NC State Wolfpack. Clemson just got ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in eight years following their ultra-intense OT win over Louisville. Tigers senior guard Gabe DeVoe makes my case for me – when getting ranked is a clear distraction: “Oh yeah, I was excited. I texted my mom, texted all my boys, just excited talking about seeing a number beside your name. It was a big deal to me.” This is also a ‘bet-against’ spot because these two teams played less than two weeks ago, a comfortable Clemson victory at home. NC State was ice cold throughout, hitting less than 35% from the floor. More DeVoe: “Teams are more juiced up playing on their home court, so I think we just need to do a good job on the defensive boards, just keep them off the offensive glass and just keep the ball out of the paint.” Easier said than done! The Wolfpack have been a strong offensive team from Day 1 this season, coming off a confidence inspiring double digit home win over Duke; now 10-1 SU on this floor this season. Most importantly, they were able to do exactly what they couldn’t do in the first game against Clemson – pound the paint, and feed their bigs while getting double digit scoring efforts from all five starters. Still at home, in revenge mode against Brad Brownell’s squad, look for the Wolfpack to hang tough for the full 40 minutes with a solid shot at the outright upset. Take NC State. For additional reading from local sources: https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/no-clemson-basketball-travels-to-n-c-state-fresh-off/article_1ff9c302-f637-11e7-acd7-bbccab14960b.html http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/nc-state/state-now/article194134314.html http://www.wralsportsfan.com/not-a-fluke-looking-back-at-nc-state-s-win-over-duke/17244438/ |
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01-10-18 | Georgia +5.5 v. Missouri | 56-68 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#777) For additional reading, click on these links from local sources: http://www.newstribune.com/news/sports/prep/story/2018/jan/10/missouri-expecting-physical-challenge-georgia/708112/ https://www.columbiamissourian.com/sports/mizzou_mens_basketball/spotlight-shines-on-maten-as-tigers-face-georgia/article_0d77b310-f592-11e7-bdb7-7f5ff19e9f62.html My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including a SU win at Marquette, a neutral site victory over St Mary’s and a wire-2-wire cover at Rupp Arena in Lexington against Kentucky already this season. Here’s an excerpt from my last write-up supporting the Bulldogs: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M. This is a team worth supporting consistently as a road underdog.” The Tigers have a matchup problem on both ends of the floor when it comes to protecting the basketball and valuing possessions. Missouri turns the ball over in bunches on offense; Georgia has held foes to an 0.81 assist-to-turnover ratio on defense. Their turnover problems could be even worse today, because point guard Blake Harris quit the team after last week’s game at South Carolina, leaving the team short-handed at a very key position for this matchup. I don’t like these quotes coming from the Missouri locker room coming off their last second loss to Florida over the weekend. Senior Jordan Barnett, talking about defending Georgia stud Yante Maten: “If we can slow him down, we have a really good chance of winning this game.” That’s not what I want to hear from my favorites! How about this ‘lack of intensity’ quote from Jeremiah Tilmon: “It’s just another game (vs. Georgia). Hopefully, we get the W, like any other game.” Live dog here! Take Georgia |
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01-10-18 | Louisville v. Florida State -6 | 73-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Florida State (#770) For additional reading, click on these links from local sources: http://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/fsu/mensbasketball/2018/01/09/florida-state-continues-protect-its-house/1017332001/ http://seminoles.com/new-look-cards-look-plenty-familiar-to-fsu-men/ Florida State is certainly battle tested right now, beating North Carolina and hanging tough with Miami and Duke in their last three ballgames. And when it comes to protecting their home floor, the Seminoles are truly elite, riding a 28 game home winning streak into their matchup with Louisville tonight. Eight of those wins have come against ranked foes and only two of those 28 wins were tight, decided by five points or less. FSU guard Terance Mann: “Nothing’s given to you when you come to Tallahassee. We’re a bunch of junkyard dogs when we’re at home.” Point guard CJ Walker: “Our thing is to take care of home and put on a show for our fans. I know that we’re going to play the best that we can in front of them." Walker continued, talking about the lessons learned from the loss to Miami over the weekend, a game where FSU was ice cold from three point range: “We learned that from our last game at Miami – just to know that if we’re not hitting 3s, we’ve got to attack the basket, get easier shots, get to the free-throw line so we can see the ball through the hoop and get more confidence.” FSU just got 7-4 center Christ Koumadje back in the lineup following an extended absence. Walker: “He’s going to solve a lot for us. (Rebounding) still comes down to a team effort, boxing out, things like that. But I feel like with Christ, it kind of makes it easier. When the ball’s up in the air, who is going to be able to jump with him? I feel like that’s going to solve a lot of problems … more transition and more possessions for us.” Rebuilding Louisville has played three previous road games this season. They haven’t won any of them, coming off a demoralizing OT loss in Clemson over the weekend. The 21 turnovers they committed in that ballgame don’t bode well for their chances against FSU’s stout defense. Take Florida State. |
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01-10-18 | Wyoming +3 v. New Mexico | 66-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#773) For additional reading, click on these links from local sources: http://trib.com/sports/college/wyoming/mbb/wyoming-men-s-basketball-looks-to-continue-strong-conference-start/article_b77d96c9-18c2-5f16-90f4-c4a7850d17f4.html http://www.santafenewmexican.com/sports/lobos-logwood-simons-expected-back-for-start-of-brutal-stretch/article_93927ce6-45eb-5984-888a-bbb518460c1e.html Here’s the key quote, from Wyoming senior leader Alan Herndon following the Cowboys come-from-behind, confidence inducing win over Boise in their last game: “Every game is important, but especially on the road. We want to be able to go out and get some road wins. I think it’s just very important for this team just to move forward. I think we do a very good job of defending home court, but now in order to get to where we want to, we’ve got to go into other people’s gyms and be able to steal some wins on their court.” More Herndon, saying the things I’m looking for senior leaders to say as they hit the highway: “I think for us, it does start on the defensive end. A lot of the times, they can get into that press when they’re making shots and they’re able to set it up. But if we’re able to play defense, able to rebound and push it a little bit more, I think that will help us. But when they do make those shots and they do have their free throws and we’re taking it out, I think we just have to be smart and make sure we’re in attack mode like we have been all season.” The Lobos have won four straight at home, showing signs for the first time all year. But when we gauge the quality of competition – the two weakest teams in the Mountain West, along with Prairie View and Rice, none of whom could handle the New Mexico pressure – those wins look much less impressive. The Cowboys can play at New Mexico’s pace better than the Lobos can……Wrong Team Favored here! Take Wyoming. |
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01-09-18 | Boise State +4 v. Fresno State | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Boise St (#561) For additional reading, here’s a link from a local source: http://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/college/mountain-west/boise-state-university/boise-state-basketball/article193644259.html Rodney Terry does not have a particularly tough team this season. In fact, I’d probably call them a tad bit ‘soft’ even after gutting out an OT win on the road in Ft Collins this past weekend. Soft or not, the Bulldogs have been an overvalued commodity – major moneymakers last year and in early season play, but 0-fer the last month ATS, including a pair of SU losses as favorites and a 15 point loss as two point underdogs. Plain and simple – Fresno isn’t being priced correctly these days, a consistently overvalued commodity. Boise is on the other end of the value equation. Since their 1-3 ATS start before Thanksgiving, the Broncos have gone 8-3 against the number, consistent moneymakers! We’ve seen Boise take care of business on the highway as well, winning SU at Oregon and UNLV, both tough places to play. But the Broncos are coming off a brutal one point OT loss in Laramie over the weekend; their first defeat in Mountain West play. Boise head coach Leon Rice: “Our expectation is to win every game, so if I had a team that was not devastated by (the Wyoming loss), I’d be really, really concerned. I think we had the proper response. Now we have to have the proper way we bounce back. That’s our job, is to regroup. The only thing (the loss) means is you’re not going undefeated (in conference).” Three things worth noting here. First, Boise hasn’t lost back-2-back games all season. Second, following their last two losses, the Broncos bounced back STRONG with 20+ point wins in their next game. And third, Fresno doesn’t have that tough low post stud who can defend and rebound, other than 6-8 Nate Grimes, who gets off the bench for less than 11 minutes per game. Boise, on the other hand, is big and physical, dominating the glass to the tune of a +9 rebounding advantage per game. Advantage = road dog in a game I expect them to win SU….or at least come pretty darn close. Take Boise State |
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01-09-18 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -9 | 70-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#560) For additional reading, here’s a link from a local source: http://www.djournal.com/sports/rebels-confront-rising-auburn-tonight/article_2b60969d-bc72-5a27-aa08-ed50e7d88db4.html My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ wire-2-wire winner with Auburn over the weekend. Let me start here with some Mike Anderson quotes from Arkansas about playing the Tigers: “I think they're (the Tigers) playing for each other. They're playing with a chip on their shoulder, so to speak……They had 22 offensive rebounds against a Tennessee team that I thought they matched up pretty well with. As they got those offensive rebounds, boy, they had a lot of kick-outs where guys were spotting up and knocking shots down.” Anderson continued: “I think they're an extra effort team. They've got guys that actually pursue the ball. You think about the (Desean) Murray kid, he's 6-3, but he's wide body. (Anfernee) McLemore is an athletic, gifted player. Of course (Horace) Spencer had a big game the other night. So I think they just do it by committee. They rebound as a team and they can see when the shot's going up and they just fly to the glass.” And boy, this is a circled game for Bruce Pearl’s team as they look to end a ten game skid against the Rebels. Last year, both losses to Ole Miss were absolutely devastating. The Rebels rallied from an eight-point deficit to win 88-85 at Auburn and trailed by 23 in the second half only to rally for a 90-84 victory at home. The Rebels scored 118 points in the second halves of those games including 63 points in Oxford. Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy: “We scored a lot of points in both of those games, and that’s something that’s been a struggle of late for our team.” With only one starter back from last year’s squad, the Rebels have shown their inexperience in their only two previous road games – double digit losses to Georgia and Middle Tennessee. Expect another double digit loss tonight! Take Auburn. |
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01-09-18 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska -1.5 | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#548) For additional reading, here are two links from local sources: http://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/mens-basketball/huskers-busy--day-stretch-begins-at-home-against-wisconsin/article_11fc9449-c1b6-5131-b8ba-1fb6c607e7f2.html http://www.theindependent.com/sports/huskers_hq/flexibility-with-lineups-could-serve-huskers-well/article_e8927c72-f4f3-11e7-a5ea-f33ae4e080d0.html Make no mistake about it – this is a statement game for the home team. Nebraska lost in OT by a single point to Wisconsin last year. The Huskers never recovered, losing five of their last seven; staying home for the postseason. That was then, this is now. Nebraska is just beginning a loaded stretch of four games in ten days. Senior guard Anton Gill: “That way (head coach Tim) Miles can’t keep us in practice for three hours…. This is where you find out if you’re a good team or not. If you come out of this with a positive record, if you can, you’ll have a chance at the (NCAA) tournament. If you can’t, you’re just another mediocre team. We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” Coach Miles: “This is a very important game — taking care of home court. Last year this was a team that beat us on our home court. We need to be able to stay on the front end of this thing, right? Right now we’re in a five-way tie for (sixth) place at 2-2. You’re going one of two directions, up or down…..The advantage (for the home team) is the energy of your players, the fact you’ve got fans lifting them up and making them feel more confident. That certainly happens at Pinnacle Bank Arena.” With four double digit scorers, the Huskers have a balanced attack. That’s not the case for Wisconsin; a team with Ethan Happ and not much else these days, especially since freshman wing Kobe King (knee) and sophomore guard D’Mitrik Trice (foot) got hurt. Wisconsin shot 49% from the floor and STILL lost at Rutgers over the weekend; a team worthy of another fade here. Take Nebraska. |
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01-07-18 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 74-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#840) Miami has matched up very well with Florida State in recent meetings, winning and covering three of the last four times these in-state rivals have battled. But Miami lost their only meeting against FSU last year, in revenge mode today. And there is a world of difference in terms of the expected energy these two teams are likely to bring to the table here. Throw in a major matchup problem for the road underdog and the case for Miami as short home chalk is very clear to this bettor. Florida State has had an intense stretch of games. They battled Duke down to the wire before falling short late last weekend, then battled North Carolina to the wire, escaping with a very satisfying one point win. This is not a ‘step-up’ spot for the road underdog. Miami, on the other hand, beat up bottom feeder Pitt last weekend, then played arguably their worst game of the year in a bad loss as road chalk at Georgia Tech earlier in the week. Head coach Jim Larranaga, following the defeat: “A comedy of errors, I would say. That’s not good basketball.” This is clearly a ‘step-up’ spot for the home favorite, following their debacle against the Yellow Jackets. Florida State matches up well against the likes of Duke and North Carolina. The Seminoles have the depth and athleticism to run with fast paced foes, and they’re at their best in the open court; ranked #23 in the country in quickest possessions on offense. But Miami isn’t going to run with anybody, ranked #326 in average possession length on defense. In fact, Miami is playing the type of defense that Roy Williams and Coach K can only dream about right now. The numbers do not lie. Miami ranks #6 overall in the country in defensive efficiency. They are top ten in the country at defending the two point shot AND the three point shot, with shot blockers Dewan Huell and Ebuku Izundu cleaning up the low post. With a balanced offense – four double digit scorers – and strong rebounding numbers as well, the price is VERY cheap to support an elite squad in a strong spot with matchups that work in their favor. Big Ticket: Take Miami. |
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01-06-18 | St Bonaventure -3 v. St. Joe's | 78-85 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Take St Bonaventure (#641) The Bonnies are coming off their worst game in more than a month, unable to get over the hump against a Dayton team that has owned them in recent seasons. They’ll get a prime opportunity to bounce back strong this evening against struggling St Joe’s. Prior to the loss at Dayton, the Bonnies were 7-0 since leading scorer Jaylen Adams returned to the lineup after he missed the first six games of the season. That stretch includes a SU win at Syracuse and a 20 point blowout against UMass. UMass head coach Matt McCall, talking about the Bonnies after that game: “We played one of the best teams in the league and it was a challenge for us.” But the Bonnies still aren’t being priced like an elite A-10 squad; the residual effect of years of mediocrity from this program and a couple of bad early season losses (Niagara at home on opening night stands out). But this team was good enough to beat Maryland and Syracuse away from home. The Adams/Matt Mobley duo is as good a combo as any team in the conference has on their roster; the type of senior leaders we can trust in hostile environments. St Joe’s can’t shoot straight, hitting only 40% of their shots for the season. They don’t hit free throws, they don’t make three pointers, they don’t force turnovers on defense and they’ve been outrebounded by an average of more than 2.5 boards per game. They just got the pressure off with an OT win over VCU, snapping a two game skid. Expect their next skid to start tonight….. Take the Bonnies. |
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01-06-18 | Arkansas v. Auburn -5 | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#614) Mike Anderson knows what’s coming today for the Arkansas Razorbacks: I think they're (the Tigers) playing for each other. They're playing with a chip on their shoulder, so to speak……They had 22 offensive rebounds against a Tennessee team that I thought they matched up pretty well with. As they got those offensive rebounds, boy, they had a lot of kick-outs where guys were spotting up and knocking shots down.” Anderson continued: “I think they're an extra effort team. They've got guys that actually pursue the ball. You think about the (Desean) Murray kid, he's 6-3, but he's wide body. (Anfernee) McLemore is an athletic, gifted player. Of course (Horace) Spencer had a big game the other night. So I think they just do it by committee. They rebound as a team and they can see when the shot's going up and they just fly to the glass. They'll be playing at home, their first SEC game (at home). So there will be a lot of emotion going on in that game. We've got to match their energy no question about it.” Good luck with that, Mike! Arkansas won away from home at a neutral site (Portland, Oregon) against Oklahoma over Thanksgiving Weekend and they also notched a win against UConn in a no-show game for the Huskies to close out that tourney. But that’s it for the Hogs on the highway this season. Their only two true road games have been ugly; both SU losses as favorites. $$ has poured in on the home favorite here for a reason…..Take Auburn. |
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01-06-18 | Florida +1 v. Missouri | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Florida (#539) Abbreviated write-up for this early start tip. The Gators veteran backcourt of Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen have played more than 200 college basketball games between them, the type of experienced floor leaders I want on my side when it comes to ‘pick ‘em’ type games in hostile environments. The Chiozza – Allen duo helped Florida win six SEC road games in SU fashion last year. They just blew out Texas A&M in College Station, and have wins over the likes of Gonzaga and Cinci on neutral floors; a ‘bet-on’ team in games like this one. Missouri is not! The Tigers have a matchup problem on both ends of the floor when it comes to protecting the basketball and valuing possessions. Missouri turns the ball over in bunches on offense, Florida creates turnovers in bunches on defense. Their turnover problems could be even worse today, because point guard Blake Harris quit the team after Wednesday’s game at South Carolina, leaving the team short handed at a very key position for this matchup. Take the Gators. |
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01-04-18 | Houston +10.5 v. Wichita State | 63-81 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#505) I don’t step in front of Wichita State lightly, but this line is out of whack with current realities for both of these squads! The betting markets have FINALLY caught up with the Shockers; a team that has been consistently undervalued for the better part of the last half decade. That’s not the case here in 2018, where the Shockers are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten lined games, including an 0-4 ATS mark over their last four contests and a 1-4 ATS mark as home chalk YTD. When a team starts winning games consistently without covering pointspreads – like Wichita has done against Cal, South Dakota State, Arkansas State, Florida Gulf-Coast and UConn in recent weeks – it tells us that market forces have adjusted enough to make the Shockers worthy of a fade as they step up in class tonight. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars haven’t lost a game by more than four points all year. They’ve been good enough to beat Wake Forest and Providence (among others) away from home, notching road wins at South Florida and St Louis as well while losing by only three at LSU. And from a value perspective, Houston has it: 6-2 ATS in their last eight games with both non-covers coming in competitive contests. The Cougs have the defensive mindset and low post muscle to hang tough and the strong guard play to potentially steal a rare victory on the Shockers home floor…..or at least come pretty darn close. Take Houston. |
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01-03-18 | St Bonaventure -1.5 v. Dayton | 72-82 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Take St Bonaventure (#767) The Bonnies are 7-0 since leading scorer Jaylen Adams returned to the lineup after he missed the first six games of the season. That stretch includes a SU win at Syracuse and a 20 point blowout against UMass in their last game. UMass head coach Matt McCall, talking about the Bonnies after that game: “We played one of the best teams in the league and it was a challenge for us.” But the Bonnies still aren’t being priced like an elite A-10 squad; the residual effect of years of mediocrity from this program and a couple of bad early season losses (Niagara at home on opening night stands out). But this team was good enough to beat Maryland and Syracuse away from home. The Adams/Matt Mobley duo is as good a combo as any team in the conference has on their roster; the type of senior leaders we can trust in hostile environments. Dayton, too, still carries ATS baggage of a bygone era. First year head coach Anthony Grant has a completely rebuilt roster after graduating four senior starters, a group that won 26, 27, 25 and 24 games in their four years with the Flyers. There have been plenty of early season growing pains, particularly on the defensive end of the court – the Flyers are sub .500 heading into January for a reason, not by accident. Cheap price to lay to back the superior team in revenge after getting swept by Dayton last year. Take St Bonnie’s. |
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01-03-18 | Valparaiso v. Bradley -6.5 | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Bradley (#762) This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. Valpo has flat out fallen apart since losing to Ball State on a buzzer beater more than three weeks ago. Since that time, the Crusaders are 1-4 SU and ATS, the lone win coming against an even more hapless foe (Santa Clara). Most notably, Valpo has been consistently losing contact, getting blown off the floor, losing those four games ATS by 23.5, 20, 9 and 18.5 points ATS. Defensive effort, offensive execution, free throw shooting – the Crusaders are falling apart in all aspects right now, a ‘bet-against’ team at every reasonable opportunity. Bradley is headed in the other direction. The Braves have been a bottom feeder program in the Missouri Valley Conference for years; a five win team as recently as 2015-16. But with every starter back from last year’s squad, the Braves have already won 11 games this season, and they’re beating teams by margin, including a 19 point wipeout over conference heavyweight Northern Iowa as underdogs in their last contest. Bradley has covered the spread in every previous home game this season, an emerging trend worth riding again tonight. Take Bradley. |
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01-02-18 | Alabama +3 v. Vanderbilt | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#527) Vandy has been a pointspread disaster area from Day 1 this season. They’re 0-fer the year ATS at home and have just one pointspread cover all year, losing by only seven as 9.5 point underdogs at Florida last Saturday. The Commodores are the only team in the SEC that enters conference play with a losing record. And yet Vandy is taking heavy $$ in early betting action on Tuesday. That offers savvy bettors a prime opportunity to cash in with this ‘Wrong Team Favored’ opportunity. Make no mistake about it – Avery Johnson has put together the best Alabama team of the 21st century. But the Crimson Tide didn’t take care of business as chalk throughout December, 0-5 ATS when laying -3 or higher. The markets have devalued Alabama as a result. Away from home, we’ve seen the Tide beat BYU and Memphis, while hanging tough against the likes of Arizona and Minnesota. Frosh point guard Collin Sexton has been nothing short of brilliant thusfar, and Johnson’s got a boatload of quality depth on a team that has lacked that in the past. Take the points! Take Alabama. |
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12-31-17 | Washington State +14 v. USC | 71-89 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Washington State (#859) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) USC isn’t short on talent. Right now, however, they are very short on team chemistry and defensive effort. From a local source: “They rely on one guy to go off,” said an assistant coach who scouted USC this year. “And the other guys just watch.” The Trojans have allowed opponents to shoot 49.5% from the floor against them in their last five games, 39% from three point range. They’re not forcing turnovers either; bad news against a Washington State squad that relies heavily on three point shooting. The Cougars have been excellent underdogs all year, cashing at an 80% clip when catching seven points or more, an emerging trend worth riding on New Year’s Eve. Take Washington St. |
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12-31-17 | Georgia +9 v. Kentucky | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#849) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including a SU win at Marquette and a neutral site victory over St Mary’s already this season. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Bulldogs at Marquette: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M.” Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide have the size to bang with Kentucky in the paint. And make no mistake about it – even after a blowout against Louisville, Kentucky’s offensive execution is still rather limited, bad news against Georgia’s feisty defense. On New Year’s Eve, I expect to be cashing another winning be on the underrated Bulldogs! Take Georgia. |
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12-31-17 | UL-Lafayette -4.5 v. Arkansas State | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana Lafayette (#843) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) There’s a class difference between these two squads that is not reflected in this short pointspread. Louisiana is a ‘class’ team in the Sun Belt. They enjoyed a trip to Cuba in August , a strong chemistry builder that has carried over to the regular season. Bob Marlin’s deep, veteran squad has proven their mettle in hostile road environments from Day 1 this season, including SU wins and covers on the highway against Little Rock, Louisiana Tech, and Nicholls State, along with neutral site wins and covers against Richmond and Iowa. I want my money ON the Rajun Cajuns as they step down in class away from hom. Arkansas State has attracted some betting market support in Mike Balado’s first year on the job with a handful of recent wins and covers against a handful of distracted foes during the holiday season. They are not, however, playing a lick of defense, a clear problem against a focused, superior foe on Sunday. Expect the Cajuns to dominate the low post, get easy looks and hit their free throws in a game that should NOT come down to the wire. Take Louisiana. |
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12-30-17 | Louisiana Tech +2 v. Marshall | 65-78 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana Tech (#595) For further reading, check out this link from a local source: https://www.wvgazettemail.com/sports/marshall_university/stakes-raised-as-louisiana-tech-visits-marshall/article_1c3dcfaf-8f9f-5eb3-b5b1-fc6389a2e227.html Expect Louisiana Tech to be as focused as it gets in Huntington this afternoon. The Bulldogs are in revenge mode against the Thundering Herd after Marshall ended their NCAA Tournament dreams last March with an upset win in the C-USA semifinals. La Tech was the #2 seed and had been 6-0 all time against Marshall, but the Bulldogs fell victim to a red hot night from three point range, as Marshall nailed 19 shots from beyond the arc in that ballgame. Don’t expect another 19 makes from three point land in the rematch – the veteran Bulldogs have held foes to just six makes per game from beyond the arc this year, stifling D on the perimeter. Meanwhile, Marshall is a good notch or two overvalued right now, feasting on the weak. And the Thundering Herd are really banged up – click the above link for details of how their limited depth is likely to be tested here. Wrong team favored! Take La Tech! |
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12-30-17 | New Mexico v. Nevada -13.5 | 74-77 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#588) For further reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.santafenewmexican.com/sports/now-it-gets-tough-lobos-set-sights-on-nevada/article_a7c6e399-ac3e-5fa4-bb90-b1f2521d28db.html https://www.abqjournal.com/1112776/mens-basketball-lobos-hope-for-strength-in-reserve.html http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2017/12/29/kendall-stephens-midst-one-nevadas-best-shooting-stretches-ever/991608001/ You wanna talk about an underrated home court? How about the Lawlor Center in Reno, where the Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS this year, 30-10 ATS in their last 40! New Mexico is playing uptempo, looking to push the pace and force turnovers. That strategy is going to lead to some big blowouts against inferior squads, like what the Lobos have done in their last three games, all at home against weaklings. But when the Lobos are stepping up in class, playing this style on the road against quality foes, they’re primed for a beatdown. We’ve seen it happen more than once already this year in ugly losses to Arizona, Colorado, Maryland – even UTEP and New Mexico State. And the Lobos are clearly going to have a problem in the paint against the Wolfpack. First year head coach Paul Weir: “One thing I know off the bat that we’re going to have to find a way to do better is rebound the basketball. They’re just physical. They’re athletic. They’re going to be a problem on the glass.” Nevada is really good, a bet-on team all the way right now, the class of the Mountain West Conference this year, and a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting marketplace. Expect their conference home opener to be a one-sided affair, a beatdown just waiting for the opening tip. Take Nevada. |
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12-30-17 | St. Mary's v. BYU UNDER 140.5 | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Take BYU – St Mary’s UNDER (#619-620) For further reading, check out this links from a local source: http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/basketball/men/byu-men-s-hoops-cougars-and-gaels-will-have-similar/article_9ade56e0-56ea-538d-9371-e24b8eb009c3.html St Mary’s is anything BUT a ‘push the tempo’ type of squad in the Randy Bennett era, a team that relies on feisty defense and a slow paced, patient halfcourt offense for their success. That’s worked repeatedly against BYU, including a 3-0 SU and ATS sweep against the Cougars last year. The final two games were both totaled in a similar range to what we’ve got today: 141 and 140.5. Those games produced 131 and 127 points, both staying Under the total by double digit margins. BYU spent most of the first 12 years under Dave Rose doing the exact opposite, pushing the pace at every opportunity. This year is different, as clearly evidenced by these quotes (and their 6-2 mark to the Under in their last eight ballgames): Leading scorer Yoeli Childs: “They’re going to come out and see a totally different team. A team that shares the ball a little bit better and plays with a better pace. I think that we’ve worked really hard, especially on the defensive end, at being able to guard what they do.” Second leading scorer Elijah Bryant: “During the summer we’ve kind of taken a different approach and focused on defense to be able to win those low-scoring games. That’s what Saint Mary’s does. Their pace is one of the lowest in the country, and we’re ready for that.” This total is lined exactly where it was last year, but we can expect a much slower pace from BYU and much more defensive intensity. Take the Under |
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12-29-17 | Utah v. Oregon -10 | 66-56 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Oregon (#850) For additional reading check out these two local sources: http://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2017/12/28/utes-will-be-short-handed-as-they-open-pac-12-mens-basketball-play-in-the-northwest/ http://registerguard.com/rg/sports/basketball/36288224-61/oregon-ducks-basketball-not-improving-as-quickly-as-dana-altman-hoped-heading-into-pac-12-play.html.csp# To say that Dana Altman has owned Larry Krystkowiak is something of an understatement. Oregon swept two meetings against Utah last year, both SU and ATS. They won and covered all three games against the Utes in 2016 and won and covered both meetings in 2015; a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS vs. Utah over the past three seasons. And there’s little reason to expect a different result tonight! Utah is really banged up right now. Leading scorer, senior David Collette is hurt. Leading three point shooter, senior Gabe Bealer, is hurt as well. Neither guy will be at 100% if they suit up at all. Frosh forward Donnie Tillman has been their best scorer off the bench. He’s out for sure, along with Chris Seeley. Utah has lost both previous road games (BYU and Butler) by double digit margins. Coach Krystkowiak: “Sometimes I think if you have a group of guys that you’ve been fortunate enough to coach for two or three years, there can be a little bit more gray area and you rely on your players to make plays and not have turnovers and kind of understand each other. I still think there’s enough newness with the roster that we have right now [that] within that gray area we were finding some mistakes.” Oregon is young, the type of team we can expect to improve gradually as the season progresses. But they’re good enough to support right now; playing elite level defense, hitting their free throws and capable of winning their PAC-12 home opener by a double digit margin tonight. Quack Quack! Take the Ducks. |
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12-27-17 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +4 | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#734) For additional reading, click here: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-sdsu-basketball-wyoming-laramie-20171226-story.html The quotes from the Aztecs tell the story here (click the above link for all of them), with three frosh and five other Aztecs that have never set foot on the court in Laramie. Head coach Brian Dutcher knows what’s coming, after his team pulled the upset over Gonzaga at home last weekend: “I tried to set them up going into Gonzaga that our next two games are going to be brutally tough. I tried to lump Gonzaga and Wyoming together. I didn’t want them solely focusing on Gonzaga in our practices for 12 days. I’ve tried to tell them how hard it’s going to be at Wyoming.” So what did Dutcher do? He went with his heart, not with his head, letting the Aztecs players go home for Christmas. They’re dealing with winter storm warnings on the flight to Laramie, and they’ll be facing an undervalued, veteran foe with three seniors and a junior starting. The Cowboys won the CBI title last March on the heels of a 23 win season, no pushovers. Off a no-show game over the holidays vs Northern Colorado, expect the Cowboys to bounce back strong tonight! Take Wyoming. |
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12-21-17 | Kansas v. Stanford +15.5 | 75-54 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#550) For more details on this matchup, read this preview from KC.com http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/campus-corner/article190994849.html Stanford is ‘head and shoulders’ better now compared to where they were at the start of the season, or frankly, at any point last year in Jared Haase’s first season on the job. Let’s be real – Stanford was a major disappointment last year, finishing 14-17 overall, 6-12 in the PAC-12 with a veteran squad. This year started out every bit as bad – a home loss to Eastern Washington; ugly blowouts away from home to Florida and North Carolina; bad losses to Portland State and Long Beach State as favorites. The Cardinal opened 2-8 ATS. But Stanford is coming off back-2-back wins, real momentum boosters for a squad that has been thoroughly devalued in the betting markets. Their defense has been dynamite of late, holding foes to 37% from the floor in their last five games. Stanford has depth and interior size, capable of banging in the paint with the Jayhawks; while Bill Self’s squad isn’t one of his deeper teams. On a one game West Coast trip right before Christmas, look for the Jayhawks to get tested in a relatively competitive game. Take Stanford. |
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12-19-17 | Illinois-Chicago v. Illinois State OVER 144.5 | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Illinois State – Illinois-Chicago OVER (#521-522) My clients and I cashed a winner betting Illinois State Over the total at BYU less than two weeks ago. Here’s a brief excerpt from that write-up: “Illinois State wants to get out and run, pushing the tempo at every opportunity. Head coach Dan Muller wants to play his style tonight, coming off a game against Tulsa where the Redbirds were able to force their opponent into playing at their preferred uptempo pace: " We got them (Tulsa) sped up a little bit. The press is going to be good for us as we get healthier and I can rest guys some more. I hope we can press more." The Redbirds followed up their BYU Over with Overs against Murray State and Ole Miss in their last two games, pulling the outright upset in Oxford against the Rebels largely as a result of their switch to an uptempo pace. This is not a good defensive team; neither is their opponent, Illinois-Chicago, a Flames team that has allowed opponents to hit 50% of their shots against them over their last five games and 56% shooting in three previous road games (all of which FLEW Over the total). Expect fireworks. Take the OVER. |
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12-18-17 | Texas-Arlington +12.5 v. Creighton | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Texas- Arlington (#729) The Mavericks won 27 games last year but didn’t get a Big Dance bid, relegated to the NIT. With a team that’s every bit as talented this year, games like tonight at Creighton really matter for UTA, a HUGE game for the road underdog. Arlington returned loads of talent from that 27 win squad, starting with their senior point guard Erick Neal and senior big man Kevin Hervey. 7 foot graduate transfer Johnny Hamilton is a nasty low post defender and the team’s third leading scorer. Head coach Scott Cross has a rotation that goes nine players deep; only Neal and Hervey average more than 30 minutes per game - this a team we can support comfortably in this pointspread range. Arlington does one thing well, where most talented mid-majors come up short – this team is downright nasty at the defensive end of the court, holding foes to 41% shooting for the season, just 39% in their last five games. That matters, in particular, against the hot shooting Bluejays, who have averaged 90 points per game this season on 51% shooting. That shooting touch has helped them notch multiple blowouts over lesser foes – three of their last four victories have come by 40+ point margins. But when Creighton has stepped up in class against solid competition – like they’ll face tonight, even though UTA is not a ‘name’ program – the results have been very different. Against Nebraska, Gonzaga, Baylor, UCLA and Northwestern – the Bluejays had two losses and three relatively tight wins. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take UT-Arlington. |
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12-17-17 | North Carolina v. Tennessee +2 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#812) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). For additional reading, click this link https://247sports.com/college/tennessee/Article/Roy-Williams-North-Carolina-Tar-Heels-have-no-idea-of-Tennessee-Vols-basketballs-toughness-112285695 Or this one: http://www.thedailytimes.com/sports/vols-set-for-rematch-with-defending-champion-tar-heels/article_cf403cfd-f3f5-5b62-bcf3-fc5a087fee73.html The Tar Heels escaped with a two point win over Tennessee at home in Chapel Hill last year. The rematch in Knoxville has all the makings of a Vols upset. Roy Williams knows what’s coming from Rick Barnes squad today; North Carolina’s first game following a twelve day layoff, and their first true road game since knocking off struggling Stanford nearly a month ago: “You’re gonna win some games, just like (Western Carolina), when we were just more gifted. I think you have to understand that, and you have to try to prepare for the really good teams. We’re gonna face a challenge on Sunday. It will hit ‘em right in the mouth, right from the start of the game. I’m really anxious, really interested and anxious to see how we’re gonna play, because they’re gonna hit us right between the eyes, and are we gonna lay down in the floor in a fetal position and start yelling for mama, or are we gonna play basketball? I told ‘em that I think some of ‘em are gonna probably lay down in the middle of the floor in a fetal position and start yelling for mama.” The Vols are as tough as nails, and they’ve proven their mettle with wins against Purdue and NC State and a down to the wire battle with Villanova. They’re plenty good enough to pull the upset today….. Take Tennessee. |
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12-16-17 | Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Iowa State | 65-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Northern Iowa (#605) (For additional reading, click here: http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/college/mens-basketball/unis-defense-hopes-to-cool-red-hot-isu-in-classic-20171215 ) The results don’t show it – yet – but Iowa State is waaaay down from where they’ve been in recent seasons` Steve Prohm’s squad has had a top 20 RPI and at least 23 wins in each of the last four seasons. But the core of that group graduated: 73% of the scoring, 56% of the rebounds and 78% of the assists from last year’s squad gone. The Cyclones are 7-0 since their 0-2 start, including a solid home win over Iowa and neutral site wins against Boise State and Tulsa. This team wants to push the pace at every opportunity. But they’ve been dealing with a barrage of injuries in their backcourt, severely affecting their practice regimen. Coach Prohm said that he hasn’t been able to run 5-on-5 drills in practice for the last week and a half because he hasn’t had enough bodies. Northern Iowa isn’t going to run with anybody. The Panthers are truly battle tested after facing SMU, NC State, Villanova and UNLV. It’s surely worth noting that Ben Jacobson’s Panthers forced all four of those quality foes to play at their preferred slowdown pace. It’s also worth noting that Northern Iowa was good enough to win three of those games in SU fashion as underdogs while finishing +12 on the boards – this team has the interior size to bang with the big boys. And the Panthers, unlike Iowa State, are finally fully healthy. Head coach Ben Jacobson: “It’s been great to have (a full roster) on game night knowing that Hunter (Rhodes) and Wyatt (Lohaus) are healthy. Even (Austin) Phyfe, after missing that week or so of games and practices. It’s been great on game day, but, more valuable — maybe six of one, half dozen of the other — on the practice floor. With Hunter being a senior, with Wyatt being a junior, we missed those guys on the practice floor. So our practices have gotten better and they’ll continue to get better as those guys get even healthier.” Wrong team favored here! Take Northern Iowa. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia -2.5 v. Massachusetts | 62-72 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#541) For additional reading, click these links: http://onlineathens.com/sports/dogbytes/2017-12-16/georgia-treks-umass-after-break-finals And http://www.recorder.com/UMass-Georgia-prev-14370920 UMass is a bet-against team today. They’re coming off their best game of the season, knocking off Providence, their second straight win following a four game skid. Head coach Matt McCall: “That’s the biggest concern. We confronted that when we got back in the gym …. For the past 48 hours everyone is telling us how great we are.” The Minutemen have been dealing with finals all week, as well. UMass is a one trick pony offensively – Luwane Pipkins is their only double digit scorer, hoisting more than twice as many shots as anyone else on the team. This is a 5-5 squad picked to finish near the bottom of the A-10, not a squad primed to pull back-2-back upsets. My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including their SU win at Marquette earlier in the month. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M.” UMass doesn’t have the interior size to bang with Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide in the paint. Expect Georgia’s defense and rebounding to be difference makers here, cashing another winning bet on the underrated Bulldogs! Take Georgia. |
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12-16-17 | Virginia Tech v. Kentucky -5.5 | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#530) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). For additional reading, click this link http://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sidelines-with-john-clay/article190040579.html Virginia Tech is getting waaaaaay too much respect from the betting markets for their hot start. I understand that Buzz Williams has a veteran squad with four returning starters from a 22 win NCAA Tourney team last year. I also know that they haven’t stepped up in class yet this season, favored in every previous lined game. And the Hokies 55% shooting for the season – best in college basketball – isn’t likely to hold up against this caliber of athlete on the highway. Kentucky has held foes to 38% shooting for the campaign. They’re undefeated at home, with six of their seven victories coming by margins of eight points or more – enough to cover this pointspread. They’re battle tested, showing well for themselves in a battle against Kansas. Plain and simple – there’s a class difference here that is not respected in this short pointspread. Expect Kentucky to pull away and win by margin. Take Kentucky. |
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12-13-17 | Portland State +15 v. Oregon | Top | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Portland State (#735) Portland State came into the season as a complete afterthought in the college basketball world. The highly influential Blue Ribbon guide ranked the Vikings as the #8 team in the Big Sky Conference; coming off a 15-16 season and starting a new rebuild with first year head coach Barret Peery, and the markets haven’t given them an inkling of respect from Day 1 That hasn’t changed, as clearly evidenced by tonight’s pointspread as Portland State travels to face Oregon in Eugene, a ‘one-way-rivalry’ game for the smaller conference, in-state Vikings. And from all indications, the preseason predictions about the Vikings were completely off-base; a team with a highly talented trio of guards that is giving opponents fits right now! Seniors Bryce Canda and Deonte North as well as junior Michael Mayhew ensure that Portland State gets good guard play every night; exactly what I’m looking for in this pointspread range. The results have been rather dramatic, despite the betting market insistence that Portland State is an afterthought. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their eight previous lined games, an under-the-radar angle that still holds ample value moving forward. They’ve won straight up as an underdog five times, including back-2-back SU road wins as dogs last week. But the most impressive showings have come when Portland State has stepped up in class. This team led Duke at halftime before wearing down late. Coach K, after the game: “We beat a heck of a team tonight. "I thought Portland State played amazingly hard and well. They knocked us back.” Butler is an elite team again this year. Portland State lost to the Bulldogs by a single bucket, a wire-2-wire cover. They forced a whopping 28 turnovers in an outright upset over Stanford. Portland State is a bet-on team and the markets have shown no inclination to make the appropriate – and dramatic – adjustment to price them correctly moving forward. Oregon is really young and waaaaaay down after Dana Altman lost four of his five starters from last year’s 33 win Final Four squad. Altman is giving three freshmen major minutes. They lost at home as favorites vs. Boise, lost on neutral floors against Oklahoma and as a favorite vs. Connecticut. DePaul took the Ducks to overtime. Last time out Texas Southern hung wire-2-wire at Knight Arena, losing by only six as 20 point dogs. No surprise here if tonight’s game is every bit as tight! Altman knows what’s coming: “It is going to be a very difficult game. I knew that after seeing them in PK80 and how hard they played." Big Ticket: Take Portland State. |
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12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati -11 | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#522) First and foremost count me as a Bearcats believer. Mick Cronin might well have his best team in his 11 years on the job, and that includes last year’s 30 win squad. This is a stable program – you’re not seeing kids transferring in and out of Cinci every year like you do at so many schools. Cronin preaches defense – last week, they spent every practice focused on that end of the floor. Cronin’s quote speaks volumes: "Our identity has got to be about playing extremely hard and being committed to getting defensive stops, and then your offense comes from your defense. Getting out-rebounded is a product of a terrible defense.” Bearcats senior forward Gary Clark: “We've got to get stops…we've been really trying to preach defense, really just getting back to getting a stop." Cinci is returning home off a defensive meltdown on the road at Xavier, followed by a late game fail on a neutral floor against Florida; a game where they committed a season high 21 turnovers and went scoreless in the last minute and a half with the score tied at 60. There’s no shame in either of those losses, two elite foes. Mississippi State might be 8-0 right now, but they’re certainly not elite as Ben Howland struggles to build a program, like so many other big name SEC basketball head coaches. The Bulldogs aren’t ready for this challenge. Mississippi State ranks #349 out of #351 D1 teams in strength of schedule so far. They legitimately haven’t played ANYBODY of consequence to get to 8-0, and they haven’t been able to put away bad teams – Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, Jacksonville State and Dayton all hung tough with the Bulldogs in Starkville. Now hitting the highway for the first time all season against a focused, hungry, defensive minded ballclub, Mississippi State is primed to get blown out. Take Cinci. |
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12-10-17 | NC-Wilmington v. LSU -12 | 84-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Take LSU (#524) Abbreviated write-up on a busy NFL Sunday. For additional reading click here http://www.nola.com/lsu/index.ssf/2017/12/lsu_hoping_work_on_defense_ove.html and here http://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20171209/richmonds-return-gives-uncw-boost LSU hasn’t played since November. Coach Will Wade has been running a defensive mini-camp during their downtime. Guard Tremont Waters: “I'm tired of practicing. I'm ready to get back on the court and show everybody that we've been being yelled at about defense all week and that we're going to come out and improve. We can't score on offense in practice. Everything is being scored on defense. You have to get a stop or a deflection or something like that. That's pretty much what he's incorporated into practice the last week……I feel like the team is coming together.” That’s a ‘bet-on’ quote in a ‘bet-on’ spot. Today’s opponent, NC Wilmington, is anything BUT ‘bet-on’ right now. The Seahawks won 25 and 29 games the last two years, then lost the four starters and the coach who carried them to all that success. First year, first time head coach CB McGrath hasn’t covered a pointspread yet – the Seahawks are 0-fer the season in lined games, and their only two SU wins came against legit bottom feeders. Throw in some depth issues (second article) and we can expect a blowout. Take LSU. |
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12-09-17 | Cincinnati -1.5 v. Florida | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#807) Florida has had a rough couple of weeks and it’s not likely to get any easier today! Since their 5-0 start, Florida has lost three in a row. The first was understandable – they took Duke to the wire. But that was followed by ugly SU losses as big chalk against Florida State (-9) and Loyola-Chicago (-16.5). The biggest culprit in those last two defeats was ice cold three point shooting, just 8-44 from beyond the arc. But that’s not the only issue for the Gators right now, a team that just allowed 52% shooting from Loyola in Gainesville while struggling mightily on the glass in every recent ‘step-up’ game. This article from local sources explains what the Bearcats have been doing all week since their 13 point loss at Xavier last weekend: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/university-of-cincinnati/2017/12/08/cincinnati-bearcats-must-fix-defense-against-no-5-florida-gators/934343001/ Bearcats senior forward Gary Clark: “We've got to get stops. We were scoring late (against XU) but we couldn't get a stop to keep them from going on their runs. This week we've been really trying to preach defense, really just getting back to getting a stop." UC junior wing Jacob Evans III: "We know they're a good team that shoots the ball extremely well. We know we have to step it up on defense, try not to let them run the things they want to run, and finish a defensive stop with a rebound." Head coach Mick Cronin: "Our identity has got to be about playing extremely hard and being committed to getting defensive stops, and then your offense comes from your defense. Getting out-rebounded is a product of a terrible defense…..When you play a really good team you might not be able to take away everything, but you've got to take away something. You can't give up nine lay-ups and seven threes in a half, which is what we accomplished in our last game. It wasn't mutually exclusive to one player and it wasn't exclusive to halfcourt. We also gave them up in transition." I’m a Bearcats believer, and I love the concept of getting Cinci in a near pick em price range after a full week off following a dismal defensive showing. This pointspread is certainly reasonable….. Take Cinci. |
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12-09-17 | UAB +9.5 v. Auburn | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Take UAB (#755) This is a ‘one way rivalry’ game, with the Blazers ALWAYS getting up to face their in-state major conference foe. Auburn? Bruce Pearl’s squad isn’t necessarily quite as focused on their C-USA foe. Evidence? The last two meetings have been decided by a grand total of five points; 74-70 last year and 75-74 the year prior. Auburn is an overvalued commodity right now. Here’s why; a ‘cut and paste’ from a local source: Auburn has played some well known mid-major schools during the early part of this season. Norfolk State, Temple, Hofstra, Winthrop, Dayton and George Mason have all made the NCAA Tournament in recent years. Indiana State opened its season with a rout of Indiana at Assembly Hall. But Norfolk State and Winthrop both played without their leading scorers. Dayton played without its top three scorers from last year, as well as with a first-year head coach. The best team Auburn has faced this season in terms of where it ranks in Ken Pomeroy’s basketball ratings, Temple, won that game by 14 points at the Charleston Classic. Auburn also has a key injury to their star sophomore guard Mustapha Heron – the team’s leading scorer -- is hurt, unlikely to have an impact today if he suits up at all. And the Blazers are no joke, coming off an impressive road win at Troy on the heels of a dominating showing against Memphis. Robert Ehsan’s squad has the depth to hang for the full 40 minutes, with at least some shot at the outright upset. Take UAB. |
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12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2.5 v. Ball State | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Valparaiso (#741) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). Read this article for full details: http://www.thestarpress.com/story/sports/college/ball-state/2017/12/08/can-ball-state-avoid-notre-dame-hangover-toughest-remaining-game-up-next/935113001/ Ball State is coming off a monumental upset over Notre Dame, the program’s first win over a ranked for since 2001. Their collective heads have been in the clouds all week; attracting the type of attention that Cardinals basketball doesn’t usually generate. Head coach James Whitford talked about all the calls and texts that he and his team were getting. Then he said this: “I told the team that we played the most difficult game of our schedule obviously Tuesday and then Saturday is probably the most difficult game we have remaining for the whole year. Valparaiso is a very, very good team. They didn't play well against Purdue, and I told my team that that loss no more defines them than our loss to Oklahoma or our loss to Oregon defines us.” Whitford is right about one thing – Valpo is no joke! He’s right about another thing too – the ugly loss at Purdue earlier in the week doesn’t define them, a team that was undefeated heading into that game against the Boilermakers and primed for a strong bounceback today. Take Valpo. |
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12-07-17 | Drexel +10.5 v. La Salle | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Drexel (#713) When the Dragons played the Explorers in non-conference play last year, the Dragons were an ugly mess of a basketball team. LaSalle jumped out to a 34-16 lead and never looked back, winning by 11. The Explorers hit 50% of their two point shots and 61% of their three point tries; the Dragons couldn’t match their firepower on their way to a dismal 9-23 season. That was then, this is now. Since opening the season 2-0 SU and ATS, LaSalle has a grand total of one pointspread cover in their last seven ballgames. They’ve been favored four times during that span, losing twice in outright fashion while winning the other two games by four and eight points – both times as double digit favorites. John Giannini’s team hasn’t shot the ball well (41% for the season), defended well or rebounded well. BJ Johnson and Pookie Powell are a two man show for the Explorers; a team with precious little quality depth. While LaSalle hasn’t won a game by enough of a margin to cover this pointspread since opening night, Drexel has shown legit signs that they’re getting better in Zach Spiker’s second year on the job. This team has much more depth than last year and they’ve bought into Spiker’s defensive mentality. The result? A handful of upsets as they’ve won four of their last seven overall (one of the losses coming by two in OT), including SU wins over Houston (at +13.5) and Rider (+5, won by 12). Expect a battle between these two Philadelphia schools tonight, not a blowout! Take Drexel. |
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12-06-17 | Illinois State v. BYU OVER 145 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Take BYU – Illinois State OVER (#547-548) Illinois State wants to get out and run, pushing the tempo at every opportunity. BYU used to play the same style, but head coach Dave Rose has been doing his best to slow the Cougars pace this season. That being said, the last time BYU faced an uptempo foe on this court, they played a 95-88 shootout against Niagara, a game that flew Over the total by more than 35 points. No surprise here if we see a similar flow tonight. Coach Rose called this matchup “worrisome” for the Cougars because of the Redbirds’ proficiency in transition and also because it falls in the middle of three big in-state matchups – off Utah State, with Weber State and Utah on deck. Illinois State head coach Dan Muller wants to play his style tonight, coming off a game against Tulsa where the Redbirds were able to force their opponent into playing at their preferred uptempo pace: "It's not only a good, quality opponent, but the atmosphere is going to be terrific. That is something that's going to be really good for this team…. We got them (Tulsa) sped up a little bit. The press is going to be good for us as we get healthier and I can rest guys some more. I hope we can press more." Take the OVER. |
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12-06-17 | Wisconsin v. Temple -4 | 55-59 | Push | 0 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Temple (#526) I’m always interested in what a team is saying coming off a handful of bad performances. Is this team in the midst of a ‘crash and burn’ or are they primed to step up next time out? After all, Temple has suffered two bad losses in their last three games, losing SU as 11 point chalk on the road at George Washington and as 3.5 point favorites on the road at LaSalle. Sophomore wing Quinton Rose, the Owls leading scorer: “We were prepared [for La Salle and George Washington] and kind of sensed that we were better than them and didn’t have to play as hard as we should, but we learned our lesson from that.” Second leading scorer Shizz Alston had a similar take: “We looked at those guys and didn’t respect them as much as, say, Cincinnati or UConn, so we have to respect every team the same way.” In other words, Temple’s early season results aren’t indicative of who they actually are, offering us value to support the Owls in games like this one. And make no mistake about it – this is a HUGE game for Temple, their first home game of the season against an opponent that has been a fixture on the postseason stage in every recent season. Senior big man Obi Enechionyia “It’s been tough not being able to play on our home court for so long. I am excited to play in front of the fans.” Wisconsin isn’t just a young team this year – they’re really, really young, a complete rebuild for head coach Greg Gard. In their one point road win at Penn State on Monday (note the short turnaround time), four of the eight players who saw court time were true freshmen, and two others were sophomores. Wisconsin is not the most confident team these days – they had dropped four out of five prior to the win over the Nittany Lions – and they did their best to blow a 17 point second half lead in that contest, just one game after getting run off the court at home against Ohio State. Chalk worth laying! Take Temple. |
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12-05-17 | Texas A&M v. Arizona +2 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#728) My clients and I bet on Arizona last Saturday Night as short road favorites at UNLV. Arizona won the game, but did not cover the pointspread, a disappointing result. That being said, the fact that they won a tight, contested road game by making big plays on both ends of the court during crunch time of regulation and overtime is the spark this team needed! Let me start with an excerpt from Saturday’s write-up: “Thanksgiving Weekend tournaments are not the final arbiter to determine which teams are actually elite. ‘Zona had a miserable run last weekend in the Battle for Atlantis losing outright as favorites to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They lost ATS by 18.5, 13 and 26 points in those three games. Whatever betting bandwagon the Wildcats had – remember, they went into last weekend as the #2 team in the country – has now dissipated into dust. And that’s why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Wildcats.” Make no mistake about it – Arizona had a rough tourney, but they are a legit Top 5 caliber team with a defense first mindset, loaded with interior size, speedy playmakers and NBA caliber perimeter shooters. They hit 38% from three point range and 73% from the free throw line, rock solid shooting numbers. Arizona has senior Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Junior Allonzo Trier handling the basketball, a truly elite duo. And Sean Miller has a pair of seven footers starting in his frontcourt – the Wildcats are outrebounding their foes by more than seven boards per game Texas A&M has a handful of impressive looking victories on their resume, including a 23 point blowout over West Virginia and a 16 point win at USC. Not to take anything away from those wins, but USC was awful (28% shooting) and West Virginia simply struggled on a neutral floor on opening night. Not to take anything away from the Aggies hot start, but this pointspread is out of whack with the relative talent levels for these two squads for a game being played in Phoenix. The Wildcats won a tight one on Saturday and I expect them to win another tight one here. Take Arizona. |
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12-05-17 | Virginia v. West Virginia -4 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia (#718) This will be Virginia’s toughest test of the season – they’ve been -6 or higher in every previous game. I’m not expecting them to pass it! In 2015, West Virginia faced Virginia’s ‘pack line’ defense for the first time and they were hopelessly lost, losing 70-54. Last year, Bob Huggins spent extra time working on how to solve Tony Bennett’s squad and it paid off with a 66-57 road victory. The core of that squad is back, most notably all-everything senior point guard Jevon Carter; one of four double digit scorers for the Mountaineers. Bob Huggins knows that his team needs to push the pace against the single slowest team in the country: “Three yards and a cloud of dust is what they want. It’s like Woody (Hayes, former Ohio State football coach) is coaching over there….We were able to speed them up some last year…..What pack line does is it makes you make jump shots. There’s five guys inside the 3. It’s what Jamie (Dixon, former Pitt and now TCU coach) has done for years…. If you make jump shots, you generally are successful.” West Virginia can hit jump shots. Plus, they force more than 21 turnovers per game and they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. That’s how the Mountaineers have taken 556 shots compared to 431 shots from their opponents; a HUGE edge in a game like this with fewer possessions expected. Virginia isn’t loaded with interior size and their ball handling is questionable without a true point guard on the roster. The Mountaineers handled this squad last year in Charlottesville, and I expect them to handle them in Morgantown in the rematch. Take West Virginia. |
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12-05-17 | Winthrop +12.5 v. Georgia | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Winthrop (#765) This is a truly brutal spot for the Georgia Bulldogs as big home chalk against feisty Winthrop. Georgia is coming off a HUGE series of wins, first beating St Mary’s in the Wooden Legacy Classic and following that up with an impressive outright upset at Marquette on Saturday. ‘Final exams season’ begins immediately following tonight’s game. This is no ‘step-up spot for the home team, and we’ve seen what happens when Georgia isn’t motivated in a lethargic nine point win over South Carolina Upstate and an equally lethargic win over Texas A&M – Corpus Christi. Winthrop won 26 games last year and expects to contend for the Big South title again this year; a talented, veteran mid-major squad with an excellent track record in ‘step-up’ spots. But they got run out of the gym in their previous ‘step-up’ game at Auburn, allowing 119 points on 62% shooting. I’ll take the ‘Under 62% shooting’ for Georgia tonight in a game played at Winthrop’s pace – fast – as opposed to the pace the Bulldogs have been playing in their last few games. And this double digit pointspread makes the expected ‘foul and three pointer’ sequence at the end of the game much less stressful…. Take Winthrop. |
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12-04-17 | Michigan +2 v. Ohio State | 62-71 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#523) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Michigan on Saturday, as the Wolverines jumped out to an 18-4 lead over Indiana and never looked back, cruising to a double digit victory. And there’s ample reason to believe that Michigan will be the better team on the floor again tonight as they travel to Columbus to take on Ohio State. The Buckeyes haven’t come down yet from one of the more remarkable performances of the college basketball season thusfar, winning by 25 at Wisconsin on Saturday as ten point underdogs. That win was mostly about hot shooting – the Buckeyes shot 78% in the first half and led by 23 at the break, finishing the game with 66% shooting and a +14 rebounding edge. Note the quote from Badgers big man Ethan Happ, following the game: “The easiest thing to say is we didn't come with enough energy. We just need to be more prepared to play." I’m not expecting to see similar quotes from the Wolverines as they face their rival. This will be Ohio State’s sixth game in 12 days, all against quality competition. Chris Holtmann’s squad is likely to be anything BUT fresh here. We’ve already seen Ohio State come up on the wrong end of big in-game turnarounds – Ohio State was outscored 49-28 after halftime against Clemson last week, right here at Value City Arena. And they led Butler 56-41 with less than four minutes to play before a complete meltdown cost them the game in overtime. Coming off a near perfect game, with just a 48 hour turnaround off what has been a VERY intense stretch, I’m not expecting Ohio State to come out clicking on all cylinders here. Even if they do, this team is prone to in-game collapses, even on this floor. And the Wolverines are no joke; a veteran squad coming off a 26 win campaign with the interior size to bang and the perimeter shooting to win. Take Michigan. |
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12-03-17 | Seton Hall +3.5 v. Louisville | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#721) There are four key factors in play for me to support Seton Hall as they travel to Louisville; a game I expect the Pirates to win in outright fashion (sorry, abbreviated write-up on a busy NFL Sunday morning). First, the Pirates have the low post size to bang with the Louisville bigs. More than 40% of the Pirates shots are layups, dunks and other easy looks near the basket, with Angel Delgad, Ismael Sanago and feisty wing Desi Rodriguez all pounding the offensive glass. Second, the Pirates ball pressure – forcing turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents possessions -- is a problem for a Louisville team that has struggled with their ball handling at key junctures in early season play. Third, Louisville isn’t hitting perimeter shots, unable to put teams away. For the season, no one on David Padgett’s squad has hit more than seven three pointers. That’s bad news against a Seton Hall squad that has been draining their open perimeter looks, coming off a 50% shooting effort against what had been the nation’s best defensive team. Lastly, I want Seton Hall in their ‘step-up’ games on the highway. Throughout the Kevin Willard era, this team has been extraordinarily tough in hostile environments. Last year, the core of this team went 8-2 ATS as dogs away from home, and I’m expecting more of the same on Sunday. Take Seton Hall |
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12-02-17 | Arizona -4.5 v. UNLV | 91-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#605) Thanksgiving Weekend tournaments are not the final arbiter to determine which teams are actually elite. ‘Zona had a miserable run last weekend in the Battle for Atlantis losing outright as favorites to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They lost ATS by 18.5, 13 and 26 points in those three games. Whatever betting bandwagon the Wildcats had – remember, they went into last weekend as the #2 team in the country – has now dissipated into dust. That’s why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Wildcats as they travel to Las Vegas to take on the Runnin’ Rebels tonight. First, make no mistake about it – Arizona had a rough tourney, but they are a legit Top 5 caliber team with a defense first mindset, loaded with interior size, speedy playmakers and NBA caliber perimeter shooters. Secondly, UNLV is still an overrated commodity, even after taking their first loss of the season at Northern Iowa on Wednesday. The Rebels have been feasting on the weak. Their signature win in their 6-1 start came against a Utah team expected to finish near the bottom of the PAC-12 standings. All five of their other victories came in games where UNLV was favored by -13 or higher. Arizona is, by FAR, the best team UNLV has faced this season. It’s not the same case looking the other way….. The Rebels are +13 PER GAME on the boards for the season. That interior dominance isn’t going to happen against Sean Miller’s squad, who starts a pair of seven footers. Opponents have hit only 23% of their three point attempts vs. UNLV; a stat that’s primed for correction tonight against an Arizona team that’s hitting better than 38% from beyond the arc this season. UNLV’s defense had hel foes to an 0.71 turnover to assist ratio. Arizona has senior Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Junior Allonzo Trier handling the basketball, a truly elite duo. The Rebels might hang around for a while with the friendly crowd cheering, but we can expect Arizona to pull away at some point. And the Wildcats solid free throw shooting – 73% for the season – gives me confidence that they can hit the clutch foul shots down the stretch if the game is still tight. Take Arizona. |
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12-02-17 | Georgia +6 v. Marquette | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#525) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner taking Georgia plus the points in the Wooden Legacy Tourney last weekend. And Mark Fox’s Bulldogs are primed to make us some more money today in their first game since that OT win over previously undefeated St Mary’s. The Bulldogs are rested and ready as they travel to Marquette; a declining program that isn’t even in the top half of the Big East any more. Georgia was a feisty road underdog last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M. My numbers show the Bulldogs on an 11-3-1 ATS run when catching points, and even that’s somewhat misleading. Two of the three ATS losses should have asterisks attached, due to some unusual late game shenanigans. Unusual late game shenanigans are possible here – Marquette is an elite free throw shooting team -- but I certainly wouldn’t call them likely. And Marquette has to be in the lead late to get those FT attempts. That’s likely to be a problem, because Steve Wojociechowski’s squad isn’t playing much defense. Based on KenPom’s advanced metric numbers, Georgia ranks #44 in the country in defensive efficiency. Marquette is at #151. That’s a pretty big defensive edge for the underdog, especially when we consider that the Golden Eagles don’t have the interior size to bang with Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide in the paint. Expect Georgia’s defense and rebounding to be difference makers here, cashing another winning bet in the underdog role. Take Georgia. |
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12-02-17 | Indiana v. Michigan -7.5 | 55-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#522). Sorry, no detailed write-up for this early start game. Michigan is in a Grade 'A' spot back home off a dismal showing at North Carolina, and Indiana is 'fade' material in this pointspread range when stepping up in class on the highway. Take the Wolverines! |
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12-01-17 | Illinois +5.5 v. Northwestern | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#723) Northwestern isn’t playing well enough to lay this type of a price to an opponent that has OWNED them in recent seasons. And don’t underestimate how much the Wildcats temporary digs, miles from campus, affects the strength (or lack thereof) of their home court advantage. Put those two factors together and the Illini are a clear choice for this bettor in the Big 10 opener on Friday Night. The betting markets have been too high on Chris Collins team from Day 1 this season. The influential Blue Ribbon guide had the Wildcats ranked in their preseason Top 25; just about every preseason guide had the Wildcats building off their NCAA Tourney appearance last March. But the early results have proven otherwise. Northwestern has already lost SU twice as a favorite as part of their 1-4 ATS run to open the season, the lone cover coming by just a half a point. Their offensive numbers are weak, their defensive numbers are weak, and they’ve been outrebounded on a consistent basis. To make matters worse for the Wildcats, Welsh-Ryan Arena is getting renovated this year, forcing the Wildcats to play at the AllState Arena in Rosemont, a full half hour drive away from campus (with no traffic). They have yet to cover a pointspread at the new venue. Northwestern went to the Big Dance last year while Illinois went to the NIT despite the fact that the Illini won both meetings, SU and ATS. This isn’t new or different – the Illini have covered every meeting between these two in-state rivals dating back to 2015. You’d have to go back to 2013 before you find a NW win in this series by enough of a margin to cover tonight’s pointspread. Brad Underwood plus the points is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Illini. |
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11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa +1 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 101 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa (#746) The Runnin’ Rebels have enjoyed a tremendous start to their season, going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. The only pointspread they didn’t cover came as 23 point favorites against Southern Utah, a game they won by 19. Most impressively, the Rebels destroyed Utah on a ‘neutral’ court here in Vegas as three point underdogs, winning by 27 while holding Utah to 2-20 shooting from three point range. No surprise, then, that the betting markets are sky high on the Rebels right now – heck, this team got votes for the AP Top 25 this week! And that’s why we’ve got tremendous value to support Northern Iowa tonight. The Panthers style is the Rebels kryptonite. UNLV wants to – needs to – push the pace. They’ve scored at least 85 points in every game, and, with the exception of Utah, they’ve all come against lesser competition, with UNLV laying at least -13.5 in their other five previous games. Northern Iowa isn’t going to run with anybody. The Panthers, unlike the Rebels, are truly battle tested after facing SMU, NC State and Villanova last week at the Battle for Atlantis. It’s surely worth noting that Ben Jacobson’s Panthers forced all three of those quality, major conference foes to play at their preferred slowdown pace. It’s also worth noting that Northern Iowa was good enough to win two of those games in SU fashion as underdogs while finishing +12 on the boards – this team has the interior size to bang with the big boys. And that’s so key! UNLV is loaded with bigs. Brandon McCoy and Shakur Juiston are both averaging 13 rebounds per game and the Rebels have a +15 rebounding margin per game. Don’t expect a margin like that against Northern Iowa, who is +8 (per game) on the boards themselves; a team that rebounds well from every position on the court. UNI got blown out at North Carolina in their season opener, allowing 86 points on 50% shooting. Since that time, they’ve held every foe – including Villanova – to 64 or less, playing one grinder after the next. No team has shot better than 43% against them in any of their last six games, a VERY sticky defensive ballclub. Northern Iowa has been home since last Saturday, confident and focused off the loss to the Wildcats. UNLV is in lookahead mode – they’ve got a bigtime showdown against Arizona at home on Friday Night. Facing a Rebels team not built for this style, leaving the friendly confines of Las Vegas for the first time all year, we can bet the Panthers with confidence. Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa. |
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11-28-17 | Baylor v. Xavier -4.5 | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Xavier (#512) Gotta like this spot here for the short home favorite! Xavier was embarrassed at Baylor last year when a three point halftime lead turned into a 15 point defeat. That came despite a +12 edge on the boards for the Musketeers in large part because Bears guard Manu Lecomte went nuts, nailing six three pointers, and because Xavier didn’t handle the basketball well, committing 17 turnovers. That was then, this is now. We’ve got a particularly motivated Xavier squad tonight, coming off their first loss of the season on Friday, blitzkrieged by Arizona State in a 102-86 defeat, by far their worst defensive showing of the season. Baylor was expected to be and is striving to a Top 20 team defensively, yet after the Arizona State debacle, they rank #55 in that category entering play today. Musketeers head coach Chris Mack is ‘bet-on’ all the way following an ugly loss, and Baylor can’t be trusted in their first true road game of the season. Mack made it clear that he expects Xavier’s defensive breakdowns from their last game to be fixed. Read between the lines of this quote and you can understand why my $$ is on the short home favorite tonight: Mack: “We have to be better defensively and there's no getting around that. We recognize how strong of a program Baylor is and what they did to us last year and the problems they present at both ends of the floor….. We wouldn't have scheduled the game if we didn't think that we could compete and compete to win. Baylor's had our number." The Musketeers are undervalued here and they’re primed to make a statement tonight! Take Xavier |
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11-26-17 | St. Mary's v. Georgia +7 | 81-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#564) St Mary’s has been an overvalued commodity from Day 1 this season. I understand the Gaels have Top 25 talent, and their ranking is no accident. But the markets understand that too, hence St Mary’s ATS struggles to open the campaign. The Gaels have shot 52% from the floor, 44% from three point range and 81% from the free throw line this season—they’re not going to shoot any better than that. Yet despite those elite numbers, St Mary’s has only covered one pointspread in four tries, and they’re coming off an outright loss as 18 point chalk in the semi-finals. This is a ‘disappointment’ game for a Gaels squad hoping for big, signature wins in this tourney, because they won’t get many of those one WCC Conference play begins. Georgia dealt with a bout of food poisoning on Friday, then proceeded to blow a double digit lead in a loss to San Diego State; a very misleading final score given the flow of that game and the circumstances surrounding it. Preseason SEC Player of the Year Yante Maten hit just 4-15 shots and lost his cool in a foul fest. The Aztecs closed out the game on a 12-4 run, turning a late Georgia lead into a seven point loss. Facing an overvalued commodity that has struggled defensively all year, look for Maten and the Bulldogs to bounce back strong and hang tough in the underdog role today; a game they’re quite capable of winning in outright fashion. Take Georgia. |
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11-25-17 | Texas-Arlington -8 v. Niagara | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Texas Arlington (#757) I want my money ON Texas Arlington in a tournament setting. The Mavericks won 27 games last year but didn’t get a Big Dance bid, relegated to the NIT. They return loads of talent, starting with their senior point guard Erick Neal and senior big man Kevin Hervey. 7 foot graduate transfer Johnny Hamilton is a nasty low post defender and the team’s second leading scorer. Scott Cross has a rotation that goes nine players deep; only Neal averages 30 minutes per game - this a team we can support comfortably in a short turnaround, neutral court setting. It’s surely worth noting that UTA is a solid free throw shooting team, always key in this pointspread range. Niagara was a 10-23 team last year. Even with their starting cast returning, this squad can’t match the Mavs in terms of talent, size or depth, and their uptempo ways are bad news against a Mavs squad primed to take advantage of their transition opportunities. There’s a class difference between these two schools not reflected in this pointspread, and the Mavericks are a ‘bet-on’ team all the way in these tournament games, building a resume for March inclusion. Take UT-Arlington. |
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11-24-17 | BYU v. Alabama -7.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#624) Sorry, ran out of time on one of the busiest betting days of the year, so I’ve posted a link to a key ‘anti-BYU’ piece of the equation from the Salt Lake City Tribune below. http://www.sltrib.com/sports/byu-cougars/2017/11/23/byu-less-than-thrilled-with-setup-for-game-in-brooklyn/ BYU isn’t ready to face quality competition, a team that has changed their style of play completely between recent years (uptempo) and 2017-18 (much slower pace). Dave Rose’s squad isn’t playing much defense either, allowing 50% from the floor in their last two ballgames. ‘Bama is going to make us money this year – Avery Johnson has pushed the right buttons for in terms of recruiting and on floor play, with the Crimson Tide excelling with super-frosh Collin Sexton at the point. Look for the Crimson Tide to run away with this one; a game that shouldn’t be close enough for a foul fest in the final minute. Take Alabama. |
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11-14-17 | Kansas v. Kentucky OVER 152 | 65-61 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Kansas – Kentucky OVER (#529-530) Kentucky is as young as it gets in college basketball, with John Calipari trotting out a starting lineup with five true freshmen. And Calipari is well aware that his young squad is struggling mightily on the defensive end of the court in early season play. His quote: “We’re just getting beat on the dribble by everybody. And defense starts on the ball. It always had. And if you can’t guard the ball it’s hard to win.” The Wildcats want to get out and run, but they haven’t been able to play at their preferred pace in either of their first two ballgames. They faced two slowdown, veteran squads in Utah Valley and Vermont at Rupp Arena to open the season, forcing the Wildcats to execute their halfcourt sets on both ends of the court. Clearly, Kentucky did not pass the ‘we’ve got our halfcourt execution down’ test. Of course, that sets up real value for Wildcats Over bettors tonight, facing a team that plays at a very different pace than the ones they’ve seen so far. Kansas isn’t built to play grinders any more than Kentucky is. With a savvy returning point guard in Devonte Graham, coming off a confidence and chemistry building summer trip to Italy, Bill Self’s squad is primed to run up and down the floor. They hung 56 on Tennessee State in the first HALF of their opener before slowing down the tempo in a blowout victory. Again, the ‘pace’ numbers won’t show Kansas as playing fast in that game because the second half was so slow, offering value for Over bettors here. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina -1 v. Gonzaga | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina (#601) The game comes down to two key concepts for me. First, no mid-major team has won a national title in the modern era of college basketball. Here in the 21st century, we’ve seen Butler reach this game twice. Memphis got here as well. But the mid-majors haven’t been able to seal the deal and come home with the trophy. I do not view Gonzaga as the exception to that rule. Secondly, North Carolina really didn’t play a good game on Saturday Night. Other than Kennedy Meeks, the Tar Heels combined to shoot 14-55 from the floor, just 25% shooting. Point guard Joel Berry hit his first shot of the game, then missed 13 of 14 the rest of the way while finishing with only two assists. Isaiah Hicks hit only one of his 12 shot attempts. For a team that shot 45% for the season, I’m not expecting another game where very few of their open looks fall. Contrast that with the Zags who still didn’t cover the pointspread in their win over South Carolina despite huge offensive games from just about every key player. Jordan Matthews was raining three’s; Przemek Karnowski and Zack Collins combined for a dozen makes in the low post and Nigel Williams Goss played his best game of the tournament. The Zags just played their best game, and they’ve not been on this stage before. The Tar Heels are coming off a ‘very lucky to survive’ game, primed to make a statement after getting all the way back to the national title game that they lost last year. In this pointspread range, where a SU win should equate to the pointspread cover, the Tar Heels are the only way I can look. Take North Carolina |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Gonzaga (#812) Looking back at my Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook from back in October (a ‘must read’ for serious college hoops bettors), most of the Final Four is no surprise. North Carolina, Oregon and Gonzaga all ranked among the Top 14 teams in the country heading into the campaign, and they’ve all (obviously) lived up to their potential. South Carolina, on the other hand, was picked as the #9 team in the SEC; a conference with only one team in their Preseason Top 25. Yes, the Gamecocks played better than expected during the regular season, but they still lost ten games and were a long, long way from being anywhere near ‘elite’; particularly on the offensive end of the floor. So how have the Gamecocks managed to win four tough games over the past two weekend, including impressive upsets over Duke, Baylor and Florida? Simple – hot shooting! A team that barely averaged 70 points per game in their first 32 contests has averaged 82 ppg in the Big Dance while shooting 48% from the floor. Sindarius Thornwell has been on fire, scoring 24+ in all four tourney games, but it’s been the inconsistent supporting cast that has been the difference maker, with at least four players reaching the double digit scoring column in every tourney game. I don’t believe that the Gamecocks balanced scoring and hot shooting continues here. This matchup does not favor their offensive chances of success. Gonzaga is still standing only because of their defensive acumen -- West Virginia would have beaten them without some terrific Zags defense. Mark Few’s squad is the #1 ‘adjusted defensive efficiency’ team in the country. They’ve held opponents to under 35% shooting in this tournament, not atypical of what they’ve done all year. Few: “This is the best defensive team I’ve coached in my 18 years at Gonzaga.” When an elite defense meets up with a suspect offense, we can expect problems for that suspect offense. As a team, the Gamecocks have precious little experience in big games and big venues like this one. Sophomore guard PJ Dozier, talking about playing in front of 75,000 fans in Glendale: “I can't even imagine it. I have no idea what to expect.” Gonzaga, on the other hand, has all kinds of big game experience, both this year and in recent seasons. They beat Florida and Iowa State in the HP Fieldhouse in Kissimmee, Florida. They beat Arizona at the Staples Center in LA and knocked off Tennessee in Knoxville. I trust this squad to execute their gameplan in this type of environment far more than I trust the Gamecocks to do likewise. Gonzaga has faced several really tough defenses in this tourney – they’re battle tested now, not going to be overwhelmed by the Gamecocks defensive pressure. The Zags are far more efficient in their half court sets offensively than their opponent – when South Carolina isn’t generating turnovers in bunches, they’re not scoring points in bunches. And, crucial in this pointspread range, the Zags hit their free throws (despite some struggles last weekend) at a 72% clip, capable of extending this lead in the final minute should we need it. Big Ticket: Take Gonzaga. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Georgia Tech -2 | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Georgia Tech (#778) To put this pointspread in it’s proper perspective, note the relative strengths of schedule for these two teams this year. If you average every opponent that Cal State Bakersfield played and compared them with every opponent that Georgia Tech played, the Yellow Jackets average opponent was more than 9 points per game better than the average Roadrunners opponent. Georgia Tech played 15 games against opponents who reached the NCAA Tournament. Cal State Bakersfield? They lost to SMU and Arizona in non-conference play, and lost two out of three meetings with WAC auto-bid winner New Mexico State. Georgia Tech is more battle tested, plain and simple. Cal State Bakersfield put on an impressive run to get here, winning SU as underdogs at Cal, Colorado State and UT Arlington, all pretty good teams playing at home. How did the Roadrunners do it? Simple – they got hot shooting the three ball, hitting 50% of their three point attempts; making ten per game. For a team that averaged six made three pointers on 33% three point shooting through their first 31 games, savvy bettors should NOT expect this hot shooting streak to continue indefinitely. And, after jumping out to big halftime leads in all three NIT games to get here, the Roadrunners are not a team I trust to hang tough in a tight, competitive contest throughout. Georgia Tech’s defense is no joke. The only teams in the country to rank higher than Josh Pastner’s squad in defensive efficiency were all elite NCAA Tourney teams: Gonzaga, Virginia, West Virginia, Florida and South Carolina. That’s bad news for a Bakersfield team that still only ranks #244 in the country in offensive efficiency even after their three hot shooting wins to get here. Take Georgia Tech. |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina OVER 159 | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 25 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina – Kentucky OVER (#723-724) Here’s the quote from Wildcats head coach John Calipari, prior to the UCLA game: “We’ve got really fast players, and so you try to play to your strengths. But a lot of people have slowed us down. They’ve not let us play fast. Early in the year, we were playing way faster than we are now. Some of that is because of how people are playing us. I’m not sure UCLA will try to slow you down. Let’s go. Let’s play to 120. I don’t think either one of us are going to change how we play. It’s too late in the season.” The game against the Bruins was the single highest totaled game of the entire NCAA Tournament, and despite reaching 161 points, it stayed Under the closing total. Now, in another rematch from a VERY high scoring game earlier in the season is totaled low enough to expect Calipari’s ‘look for a very fast pace’ quote to cash an Over bet for us on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams really was a track meet; a 103-100 Kentucky victory in regulation! Neither team generated turnovers with their defensive pressure; both squads had open looks throughout and they knocked them down. Still, the game wasn’t a foul fest ( a combined 34 made free throws) and it still flew Over the total by 32 points; a game that closed with a total of 171. This total is a dozen points lower, with a different level of pressure compared to that early December matchup. Frankly, the 12 point differential between the total in the first meeting and this one is waaaay to much of an adjustment to make. North Carolina point guard Joel Berry looked back at 100% after an injury last weekend, hanging 26 of the Tar Heels 92 points on Butler Friday Night; by far the most points Butler had allowed all year – including overtime games! Roy Williams squad has been trending Over of late, cashing three Overs in their last four postseason games; all totaled in the 150’s. The Tar Heels are the best team in the country on the offensive glass, leading to easy putbacks without burning much clock. And defensive rebounding is not a major area of strength for Calipari’s squad. Expect a frenetic pace, excellent offensive efficiency and enough easy looks to send this game Over the total with room to spare. Take the Over. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 146 | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Xavier – Gonzaga UNDER (#513-514) Gonzaga’s offense hasn’t worked in the Big Dance. Point guard Nigel Williams-Goss – the WCC Player of the Year during the regular season -- is mired in a nasty slump. He’s shot a woeful 12-42 in the tournament so far, with nearly as many turnovers (nine) as assists (ten). When your point guard is struggling at this time of the season, it’s a real bugaboo to overcome. No surprise, then, that the Zags have been held in the 60’s twice in three tournament games, staying Under the total with plenty of room to spare both times. In fact, Gonzaga has been trending Under all month, 6-2 to the Under in their last eight games overall. It’s surely worth noting that both Over cashes came in games totaled below 140. Xavier can be expected to play zone defense for extended stretches this evening, forcing the Zags to hit perimeter jumpers from the soft spots in the zone. But with a struggling point guard, facing much tougher defensive competition than they saw in the WCC this year, the Zags shots just aren’t falling right now; averaging less than five made three pointers per game over their last five contests. But the Zags have been able to win their first three games of this tournament to survive to the Elite Eight because their defense is truly elite, ranked #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and #1 in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Musketeers have shot ‘lights out’ in this tourney; hitting 50% or better in all three games, despite the season ending injury to their own point guard, Edmond Summer, in the heart of Big East Conference play. I do NOT expect Xavier to approach or exceed 50% shooting again on Saturday facing this defense. Xavier has cashed only one Over ticket in seven games since March 1st. These two teams have met twice this decade, with the two games finishing with 137 and 118 points, despite late scramble points in both contests, cashing Under tickets each time. This ain’t no shootout…… Take the Under. |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida -2 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Florida (#872) Wisconsin can’t play any better than they did last weekend in Buffalo. They averaged a ridiculous 1.31 points per possession while knocking off Virginia Tech, then followed that up with a 53% shooting effort to beat the defending champs, Villanova. Given the success of the Badgers in recent tournaments (their four seniors – Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes, Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown – are a combined 13-3 in NCAA Tournament games), it’s easy to understand why the markets are affording this team so much respect. But the Badgers do not match up well against Florida, and they’ll be hard pressed to come close to matching last weekend’s stellar efforts. Wisconsin doesn’t hit free throws (64% for the season, just 26-41 in the first two games of the Big Dance). They’ve been outrebounded consistently down the stretch, losing the battle of the boards in five of their last nine games. And the Badgers lack the athletic playmakers that Florida has an ample supply of; the type of playmakers that have given Wisconsin trouble in the majority of their eight previous losses this season. Florida hits their free throws at a 71% clip for the season. They’re a dominant rebounding team as well, winning the battle of the boards in each of their last five contests. Every Gators loss this season came against a quality foe – three times to Vanderbilt, then Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida State, Duke and Gonzaga, arguably all better teams than the one they’ll face on Friday. It’s surely worth noting that Florida didn’t lose contact in any of those defeats, each and every one of them coming by ten points or less. Wisconsin lives and dies by the three point shot and Ethan Happ’s ability to create good looks in the low post. But the Gators are elite defenders on the perimeter, ranked among the Top 10 teams in the country, allowing only 30% shooting from beyond the arc for the season. And Happ won’t have an easy time of it against shot blocker extraordinaire Kevarrius Hayes. In fact, Florida ranks among the nation’s leaders on defense in shooting percentage allowed, blocked shots and turnovers forced; arguably the best defensive team still standing in the tourney. Gators junior wing Devin Robinson is skyrocketing up NBA draft boards. Shooting guard KeVuaghn Allen is primed for a much better weekend this week after a woeful 3-21 shooting effort last weekend. Senior point guard Kasey Hill can hang tough with Koenig. The Gators have more depth than the Badgers – no Florida starter averages more than 28 minutes per game, with a rotation that still goes nine deep even after the injury loss of big man John Egbunu. This is a VERY cheap price to lay with the superior team, making this game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take Florida. |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Baylor | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 55 h 12 m | Show | |
Take South Carolina (#873) My clients and I cashed a (lucky) winning bet against Baylor over the weekend. This time around, the anti-Baylor fade shouldn’t need a last second putback to cover the number! Let me start with my anti-Baylor analysis from the USC game. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities. “Baylor is a classic case of a team that peaked in January. Remember, this team was #1 in the country for a few days after starting 15-0. Obviously, they are not the #1 team in the country, or anything close. And from a value standpoint, the Bears have been a nightmare for their supporters since that hot start, below 40% ATS since the calendar turned to 2017.” Baylor is coming off a weekend of near peak offensive performance. They shot 54% from the floor, hit 30 of 34 attempts from the free throw line and finished +28 on the glass. Yet despite those dominant stats, the Bears could have easily gone 0-2 ATS were it not for a late 11-4 run in the final 2 ½ minutes against New Mexico State. I expect the Bears to be hard pressed to match those offensive accomplishments here; bad news for a program with a consistent track record of postseason failure under head coach Scott Drew. You could make a legitimate argument that South Carolina was the single best team in the NCAA Tournament last weekend. The Gamecocks have played elite level defense all year under Frank Martin, but other than Sindarius Thornwell, their offense spent the season stuck in the mud. But there was nothing fraudulent about their impressive victories over Marquette and Duke last weekend, getting four players into the double digit scoring column in the opener, then five players to double digits in the upset over Duke. This Gamecocks team is an undervalued commodity right now following a late season slump in SEC play, but they’re every bit as good as the favorite in this game. Take South Carolina. |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Gonzaga | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia (#815) Gonzaga hasn’t seen much ball pressure from opposing defenses this season. They played in the West Coast Conference, not exactly a hotbed of defensive excellence. The vast majority of their non-conference slate came against teams that don’t force turnovers in bunches. So when we look at the Zags struggles against ball pressure teams in recent weeks, it does not bode well for their chances to beat West Virginia by margin on Thursday. Twice in the last month, Gonzaga has faced an opponent that has put pressure on the ball, looking to generate turnovers. The first time it happened, BYU rallied from 14 points down to win by 8 at Gonzaga, covering the spread by 29 points in the process. The second time it happened, against Northwestern last weekend, the Zags nearly blew a 21 point second half lead, completely falling apart on the offensive end of the court. The numbers do not lie. West Virginia ranks #1 in the country in the percentage of opponents’ possessions that end in a turnover and #3 in the county in the percentage of opponents possessions which end with a steal. They aren’t BYU or Northwestern on defense, yet the Cougars and Wildcats lesser defenses gave the Zags fits while forcing turnovers in bunches. If the Zags had 28 turnovers compared to only 19 assists vs. BYU and Northwestern, we can imagine what this offense will look like against the best pressure defense in the country! West Virginia spent a good portion of the season struggling to hit shots on the offensive end of the court. That changed last weekend, giving this team a strong jolt of confidence heading into their matchup with the Zags. Junior point guard Jevon Carter: “All year we've been telling ourselves that we got the best group of guards in the country and we truly believe that. Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey, following the Mountaineers win over the Irish last weekend: “I didn't expect them to shoot it from outside as well. I thought we could play a little more zone and make them make more threes, and they made every big 3-point shot. And Carter is a big-time winner. What a stud guard he is. He's fabulous. He's just a veteran winner in college basketball." Surging with offensive confidence, if the Mountaineers hit shots again this weekend, they’ll be Final Four bound. Meanwhile, Gonzaga continues to be saddled with a ‘pointspread tax’ from the betting marketplace. The Zags spent months as the #1 team in the country AND the #1 pointspread team in the country, a most rare occurrence – the best spread teams don’t tend to be higher profile squads. Now that the markets have finally caught up and made a big enough adjustment, the Zags are facing the other side of that equation. The time to make money betting on Gonzaga was November, December and January. It’s surely worth noting that the Zags five ATS losses in their last eight games were more losses than they had ATS in their first 27 lined contests. Take West Virginia. |
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03-20-17 | UCF v. Illinois State UNDER 128 | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Illinois State – UCF UNDER (#615-616) If you’ve never heard or seen UCF 7-6, 300 pound low post stud Tacko Fall, tune in to ESPN tonight and Watch this shotblocking behemoth disrupt the Illinois State offense. UCF is the #1 team in the country in defensive field goal percentage allowed and #6 nationally in scoring defense. Fall was the AAC Defensive Player of the Year while setting a school record for blocked shots in a season. Illinois State knows what they’re up against. Head coach Dan Muller: “It's impressive how much he's improved in the last two years. It's not like he's this big guy who can't move. He's a good player. It's hard to simulate in practice.” Redbirds junior forward MiKyle McIntosh: “I've never played against anyone that tall. It's kind of cool. But at the same time you have to come out and play basketball. You can't worry about it. It will affect your shot if you keep worrying he's going to block it or alter it." The only problem with that theory is that Fall is worth worrying about! Illinois State faced an uptempo foe in the first round of the NIT, draining 13 three pointers while hitting 53% overall from the field in a rout over UC Irvine. Expect a very different pace tonight between these two plodding, methodical halfcourt teams. And it’s certainly not like the Redbirds are defensive slouches! Illinois State, like UCF, is a Top 10 team nationally in both field goal percentage defense and scoring defense. Muller’s squad is 9-3 to the Under in their last dozen games. Every one of those contests was totaled in a similar range as tonight’s contest; all between 119.5 and 137.5. First one to 60 wins here, in a game that has ‘defensive struggle’ written all over it! Take the Under. |
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03-19-17 | USC +7.5 v. Baylor | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take USC (#725) In just about every recent season we’ve seen one team ride the wave from a ‘play in’ game victory all the way to the Sweet 16. And USC certainly has that potential here, with the current seven point spread offering us a legitimate bargain to support the Trojans on Sunday in a play worthy of Big Ticket status! Baylor is a classic case of a team that peaked in January. Remember, this team was #1 in the country for a few days after starting 15-0. Obviously, they are not the #1 team in the country, or anything close. And from a value standpoint, the Bears have been a nightmare for their supporters since that hot start, a 40% ATS squad since the calendar turned to 2017. Coming off a game in which they shot 57% from the floor and 90% from the free throw line while finishing +17 on the glass – yet the game was still tied after halftime – I’m expecting the Bears to have a much tougher time here as they step up in class. And for a program with a consistent track record of failure in March under Scott Drew, expect the Bears to have their fair share of struggles in Tulsa on Sunday USC has stepped up in class plenty of late, facing UCLA, Arizona and Oregon twice each down the stretch of their PAC-12 campaign. And this game sets up well for the Trojans. They didn’t burn all their energy in Vegas last weekend, losing to UCLA by a bucket in their second game. They had time to physically recover before their flight to Dayton for the Play in Game. Their win over SMU was another confidence boost for a team with great potential, and now, after the whirlwind of the past week, they get normal prep time without travel to face the Bears. Here’s what SMU’s Tim Jankovich said following the Mustangs loss to the Trojans on Friday, unable to penetrate the USC zone defense: “They've got great size. That's one of the real factors in how good your zone is, and they are very big, very, very big, and they're very athletic. I thought it was the most active they've played it in any of the games that we watched. So give them credit for that." Size is Baylor’s biggest edge, with 6-10 Johnathan Motley and seven footer Jo Lual-Acuil manning the low post and leading to a +8 rebounding margin average for the full season. But with Bennie Boatwright, Chimizie Metu, and Nick Rakocevic all standing at 6-10 or taller, the Trojans can bang with the Bears in the paint; start to finish. USC head coach Andy Enfield is the antithesis of Scott Drew when it come to tournament settings; a coach with a great track record of success, particularly as an underdog. Enfield took Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 – that’s how he got the USC job – with a 6-0 ATS run from the start of the Atlantic Sun tournament until their Big Dance exit, cashing four times as underdogs. Enfield has gone 7-3 ATS in postseason play with USC, including a 5-2 ATS mark as an underdog. In USC’s last two tries as a dog, they covered wire-2-wire, losing by only 2 to UCLA and beating SMU straight up. Both of those teams are better than Baylor…… Big Ticket: Take USC. |
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03-19-17 | Michigan +3 v. Louisville | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#721) To call John Beilein an elite level tournament coach is something of an understatement. Prior to the Wolverines ‘bad beat’ spread loss to Oklahoma State on a buzzer beater three pointer on Friday, Beilein was 19-7 ATS in the Big Dance, including an 11-5 ATS mark at Michigan. And that’s not even counting Michigan’s success in the Big 10 tourney (4-0 SU and ATS this year, 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS since 2013). I want our money ON John Beilein in short turnaround tournament settings, plain and simple. Rick Pitino has ‘elite level coach’ plastered all over him by the national media. Pitino in the postseason? He’s 0-2 ATS this year and just 3-5 ATS in the Big Dance since Louisville cut down the nets against Michigan in the 2013 national title game. That Louisville team was loaded with NBA talent. This year’s team is not – Michigan arguably has the more talented roster here. Louisville does two things very well. They dominate the glass, winning the rebounding battle by margin on a consistent basis. And their pressure defense forces turnovers in bunches, leading to easy fast break buckets. Louisville is likely to win the battle of the boards here – rebounding is not an area of strength for this Michigan squad. But the Wolverines just beat Oklahoma State despite a -18 mark on the boards. They beat Wisconsin despite a -6 and beat Minnesota despite a -16. And that’s just in their last three games! Michigan has been overcoming negative rebounding differentials all year; not a deal breaker when they face a strong rebounding opponent. The Wolverines certainly have the type of guard play I’m looking for when it comes to overcoming the Louisville defensive pressure. Michigan turns the ball over less than nine times per game, with Derrick Walton Jr and Zak Irvin both making excellent decisions with the basketball; an elite guard duo. I’ve yet to see a team all year rattle those veteran guards. When Louisville gets forced into a halfcourt game -- without generating easy transition buckets – they have struggled repeatedly this season. The Cardinals are not a great offensive team, by any stretch of the imagination. They don’t hit free throws – another Michigan area of strength – and their own ball handling is a long way from being elite. Look for Michigan’s remarkable run to last for at least one more game…at least from a pointspread perspective! Take Michigan. |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10 | 73-79 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Gonzaga (#530) We’ve got a clear ‘Bet-on’ vs. a clear ‘bet against’ here, making this double digit pointspread look rather cheap to this bettor. Let’s start with the ‘bet-against’ element of the equation. Northwestern, obviously, has no history of making deep tournament runs – in any tournament. These same kids got bounced out of the Big 10 tourney in their first game in 2015 and 2016, winning only one tourney game in each of the two years before that. Their last trip to the NIT, in 2012, ended following a single, two point win. And yet, here they are this year, coming off a gift victory over Vanderbilt, now playing their fifth game in the last ten days – their most grueling stretch of the season – and stepping way up in class against a team with something to prove. We saw Northwestern in a similar spot last weekend after knocking off Maryland in the Big 10 tourney. Against Wisconsin in their next game, the Wildcats lost contact; a 28 point defeat that was essentially over by halftime. And I sure as hell don’t want the Wildcats 48 hours after their gift win against Vandy, with ‘we’ve accomplished something’ quotes coming from head coach Chris Collins. While Northwestern is fat and happy, Gonzaga is hungry and primed to make a serious statement following their lethargic opening round win over a bottom tier foe. The Zags hit less than 40% from the floor, had more turnovers than assists and made only 8 of 18 free throw attempts vs. South Dakota State. Point guard Nigel Williams Goss: “We were able to grind out a tough game, not a pretty game. It feels good when you win a game when you know you didn't play your best." This is a motivated favorite with an elite level ‘A’ game primed to dismantle the outmanned Wildcats. Take Gonzaga. |
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03-17-17 | Wichita State v. Dayton +6 | 64-58 | Push | 0 | 51 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Dayton (#832) KISS write-up here – I’m keeping this one simple. While the talking heads on TV were ranting and raving about how Wichita State was criminally underseeded (which they are), nobody was saying a word about the Dayton Flyers. First, let me talk about the Shockers for a moment. Yes, Wichita State is a very good team. But this was no banner year for the Missouri Valley Conference, to put it mildly. There’s a reason that Illinois State, who went 17-1 in conference play, didn’t get an at-large bid. Against other Big Dance teams in non-conference play, the Shockers went 0-3 SU and ATS. And it’s surely worth noting the pointspreads in those games – Wichita was FAVORED over Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State, just like they are favored here. There are no pointspread bargains when it comes to Wichita State this year, plain and simple. That’s not the case for Dayton! The Flyers have stepped up in class remarkably well this year, suffering only one pointspread loss as an underdog ALL YEAR. Even that loss comes with an asterisk – it was back before Thanksgiving when they were 2.5 point underdogs against St Mary’s and lost by four. Of the Flyers seven losses this year, six of them came by six points or less; a team that executes their offense extremely well down the stretch of tight games . Against this pointspread, the Flyers would be 29-1-1 ATS this year. Dayton is deep. They’re athletic. They’re well coached. They’re veteran. They value possessions. They play sticky defense. Sounds a lot like Wichita, right? Flyers head coach Archie Miller is a ‘bet-on’ guy in the Big Dance, especially off a bad loss to Syracuse in the first round last year. After back-2-back Sweet 16 runs over the past two years, Gregg Marshall’s squad will be hard pressed to survive and advance at all, let alone winning this one by margin. Take Dayton. |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton | 84-72 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Rhode Island (#843) The Bluejays were a legitimately elite team for the first two months of the season, going 18-1 out of the gate. That stretch included wins over Wisconsin, Ole Miss, NC State (before their collapse), Nebraska (before their collapse), Arizona State, Seton Hall, Providence and Butler among others. At the time, after all of those impressive victories, Creighton was power rated like a juggernaut. Then point guard Mo Watson got hurt (8.5 assists per game, by far the #1 assist man in the nation!) and the Bluejays season went south in a hurry. Creighton went 7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games. And it’s surely worth noting who those five of those six pointspread covers came against: DePaul (twice), St John’s, Georgetown and Xavier right after the Musketeers suffered a massive injury loss themselves – all bad teams. The Blue Jays last win against a top tier foe came back in January, but all of those impressive early season victories are still on their resume and still inflating both their seeding and their power rating for pointspreads. Rhode Island is on the other end of the equation. The Rams did not play their best basketball, struggling SU and ATS early and often in November, December and into January. Key contributors like senior low post stud Hassan Martin, junior point guard Jarvis Garrett missed time, and the team didn’t immediately jell upon either guys’ return to the lineup. That was then. This is now. Unburdened by any inflated pointspreads due to their mediocrity for months, Danny Hurley’s squad finally put it together down the stretch: 8-0 SU 6-2 ATS in their last eight games; 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14. This was a fringe Top 25 squad coming into the season, playing at that level here in March. Creighton is not. In a near pick ‘em priced game, that matters! Take Rhode Island. |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon OVER 151.5 | Top | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 46 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oregon – Iona OVER (#841-842) If you watched the NIT openers on Tuesday, you saw Ole Miss racing up and down the floor against Monmouth, hanging 91 points on the Hawks, shooting 52% from the field in the process; a game that flew Over the total by margin. What does that have to do with Oregon – Iona? Plenty! Iona and Monmouth were among the top few teams in the MAAC again this year. Iona’s defense is very comparable to Monmouth’s – weak. Their only shot blocker, Taylor Bessick, gets off the bench for only 14 minutes per game. They don’t force turnovers with ball pressure, they give up more than their fair share of transition buckets. Head coach Tim Cluess is clue-less in the Big Dance, a the Gaels have yet to cover a pointspread during his tenure thanks to those consistent defensive woes. In their opener last year the Gaels hung 81 on Iowa State…and lost by double digits, failing to cover the spread, in a game that flew over the total by double digits. In their NIT opener in 2015, they allowed 88 to Rhode Island, a game that flew Over the total by double digits. It was the same story in the NIT in 2014 (Louisiana Tech scored 89, the game flew Over by double digits) and the NCAA Tournament in 2013 (95 allowed to Ohio State, game flew Over by double digits). Look for Oregon’s remarkably efficient offense to run circles around the Gaels – the Ducks are a legit threat to hit 90 or higher in this ballgame. Iona has made the postseason every year despite these defensive deficiencies because Cluess sure knows how to coach offense – his teams put the biscuit in the basket, with four double digit scorers again this year (and two more who average just under ten points per game). And when we talk about impact injuries on the defensive end of the court, the Ducks loss of shot blocking center Chris Boucher really stands out. Boucher was not a great offensive player, but he was a low post difference maker on defense. In their first game without him in the lineup, the Ducks flew Over the total by more than 20 points in the PAC-12 championship game. Late season impact injuries on defense create confusion in the betting markets; markets that react more to full season stats than to any guesswork when it comes to how an injury will affect a total. That gives us a strong ‘positive expectation’ opportunity here, worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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03-17-17 | Seton Hall +1 v. Arkansas | 71-77 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#823) Last year in March, Seton Hall went on a remarkable run through the Big East tournament, knocking off eventual national champ Villanova in the title game to earn an automatic bid to the Big Dance. After the adrenaline and excitement from that conference tourney run came to an end, the Pirates looked flat and disjointed in their Big Dance opener in a non-competitive loss to Gonzaga. That was then. This is now. The Pirates didn’t use up all their energy in the Big East tourney this year, losing a tight, two point game to ‘Nova in the second round. And this year, instead of ‘happy to be here’, Kevin Willard’s squad is poised to make a little bit of noise this time around; in sharp contrast to an Arkansas team that missed the Big Dance last year and hasn’t covered a spread in a postseason tourney since 2014! Seton Hall plays sticky defense (top 40 nationally), as we saw in the Big East semi’s, holding mighty ‘Nova to 55 points. They’ve got great veteran leadership at the guard spots with Khadeen Carrington and Madison Jones, to go along with veterans Desi Rodriguez on the wing and Angel Delgado – the nation’s leading rebounder -- in the low post. And this Pirates team is peaking at the right time once again, playing their best basketball of the season here in March; a squad who’s full season stats and power rating number doesn’t tell the true story of where they’re at right now. Take Seton Hall. |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Michigan | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma State (#827) John Beilein is one heck of a tournament coach, as we saw once again in the Big 10 Tourney this year. From a pointspread perspective, Beilein ranks as ‘elite’ here in March. The betting markets certainly recognize that fact, hence the love for the Wolverines in the betting markets this week – the same betting markets that loss their collective asses betting against Michigan in their remarkable run to the Big 10 Tournament title. Well guess what. Brad Underwood is one heck of a tourney coach too! He got this job because of his success in the postseason at Stephen F Austin; dominating West Virginia as a first round underdog last year. And his Cowboys are primed to make some noise with a small upset here in the first round again this year. Michigan rode the magic wave of adrenaline, guile and key miscues (and missed free throws) from their opponents to win that Big 10 Tourney Title; four games in four days following their near-death experience at the Willow Run Airport near Ann Arbor. I expect them to be hard pressed to find that same energy and magic here; a clear ‘bet-against’ team in their opening round game. And Michigan is such a weak defensive team (50% shooting allowed away from home, no shot blocker, no great on-ball defender, no defensive stopper), that a great offensive team like Oklahoma State is primed to exploit them! The Cowboys went 8-3 ATS as an underdog this year, consistently stepping up well against quality foes. It’s their offense that’s the difference maker, bad news for Michigan on the defensive end of the court. The Cowboys rank #1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency; the second best college basketball offense of the last TEN YEARS, with point guard Jawun Evans flashing NBA upside. Here’s the quote from Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard: “Brad has really good players. He has an NBA point guard (Juwan Evans), one of the all-time great Big 12 players in (Phil) Forte, and in my opinion he has the most improved player, not only in Big 12, but in college basketball with (Jeffrey) Carroll. He has young players who really play their roles and play productive minutes.” Following a pair of losses to elite teams to close out the regular season, this is a step DOWN In class for the Cowboys; a game I expect them to win in straight up fashion. The 2.5 points give us a nice little ‘buzzer beater’ cushion should we need it. Take Oklahoma State. |
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03-16-17 | Nevada v. Iowa State OVER 156 | 73-84 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State – Nevada OVER (#729-730) It’s not hard to make a case betting Iowa State Over the total for their Big Dance opener against Nevada. After all, the betting markets haven’t been pricing Cyclones totals correctly for months! Iowa State has cashed nine straight Overs, including a 3-0 mark to the Over in the normally bogged down Big 12 Tournament; pushing the pace at every opportunity. A team that started the season 2-8 to the Under is 16-4 to the Over since. And it’s surely worth noting that all four Unders during that span came against teams looking to slow the Cyclones down into a half court game (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas St and Kansas). Nevada has a couple of things in common with Iowa State. First and foremost, like the Cyclones with four strong scorers averaging at least 12 points a game, four Wolfpack starters average at least 14 points per game. Defenses can’t concentrate on stopping one or two guys for either of these two squads; and both teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard even in a game where a handful of shooters are having an off night. No surprise, then, that Nevada, too, is trending strongly to the Over of late: 3-0 to Over in the Mountain West Tournament in Vegas; 6-1 to the Over in their last seven. The Wolfpack scored at least 79 points in each and every one of those seven contests despite a modest 46% shooting mark during that span – it’s been pace and offensive execution, not just hot shooting. So when Nevada and Iowa State match up in Milwaukee on Friday Night, we can expect a high scoring affair. These are two strong offensive teams playing at the top of their game right now, and the Bradley Center in Milwaukee is an excellent venue for shooters. Throw in a decent chance of late game ‘scramble’ points in this spread range and there’s ample reason to expect a wild, highly entertaining shootout in late action on Thursday. Take the Over. |
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03-16-17 | Vermont v. Purdue -9 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Purdue (#732) The betting markets are not impressed with the Big 10 in general, and there’s certainly no groundswell of support to back a Purdue team that stumbled down the stretch with a pair of losses to Michigan. That leaves the Boilermakers as a seriously undervalued commodity heading into the Big Dance; a team with a ‘Final Four’ type statistical profile. And make no mistake about it – Purdue has something to prove here, right from the opening round. The Boilermakers got knocked off in the first round last year by Arkansas Little Rock in double overtime; a game where Purdue blew a 13 point lead in the final four minutes of regulation, a complete meltdown. The Big 10 regular season champ played at an elite level for extended stretches this season, and they’re coming into the Big Dance with a bit of a chip on their shoulders, primed for an opening round smackdown. It’s surely worth noting how good Purdue has been in this role this year, 12-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or higher. Vermont’s ‘big man’ is 6-8, 215 pounder Payton Hanson. Hanson has absolutely no chance to control the paint against 6-9, 250 Caleb Swanigan, an elite scorer with NBA potential. 7-2, 290 pounder Isaac Haas is an ever tougher matchup for the Catamounts, not to mention 6-8 Vince Edwards. Expect Purdue to control the paint on both ends of the floor, and win the battle of the boards by margin. If the Catamounts choose to sag into the paint to defend the Boilermakers low post studs, it’ll get even worse for the underdog. Purdue connected on more than 40% of their three point tries this year, ranked #4 in the country in three point shooting. Matt Painter’s inside-out offensive gameplan is nightmarish for Vermont to defend These two teams met last year. Vermont hit 48% from the floor and nailed 20 of their 24 free throw attempts, an excellent shooting game against a Big 10 foe. They still lost by 28, completely overwhelmed by the Boilermakers size and athleticism. It’s hard to picture the Catamounts shooting much better than 48% from the floor and 83% from the line in this one. Vermont faced three tourney teams during non-conference play this season. The lost to South Carolina, Providence and Butler by a combined 52 points, losing by at least a dozen in every one of those games. Purdue is better than all three of those squads, primed to win this one by a comfortable, double digit margin. Big Ticket: Take Purdue. |
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03-16-17 | Vanderbilt -1.5 v. Northwestern | 66-68 | Loss | -101 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#739) At this time of the year, I’m always interested in supporting teams who’s full season numbers don’t accurately reflect their current realities. These are teams that I consider to be value laden squads. And Vanderbilt is certainly at or near the top of my list of ‘late season morphers’ – teams that are playing at a very different level right now than their full season power rating would indicate. Make no mistake about it – Vanderbilt is one of those teams. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Vandy write-up from the SEC tournament last weekend. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “Flying waaaaaay underneath the radar, Vandy is as hot as any team in college basketball right now: 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine ballgames. The Commodores are playing stifling defense – four of their last six opponents have made 20 shots or less against them in the 40 minutes of regulation basketball. Vandy hits their free throws, better than 77% for the full season, Top 10 in the country. Bryce Drew’s teams have enjoyed tournament success before at Valpo, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Vandy knocks off Florida in SU fashion for the third time this season.” The Commodores did not respond well after their OT win over the Gators, coming up flat the next day against Arkansas. But with 7-1 Luke Kornet eating up rebounds and blocking shots in the low post, Riley LeChance avoiding turnovers like the plague at the point, and Matthew Fisher Davis and Jeff Roberson filling up the bucket, this team has plenty of scoring options. They also have continuity, even in Drew’s first season on the job. Drew’s nine man rotation has COMBINED to miss just two games all year – their lack of injuries has led to a vastly improved oncourt chemistry compared to where they were four months ago! Northwestern finally ended their tournament drought because the Big 10 lacked elite teams this year. But unlike Vandy, the Wildcats are in the ‘happy to be here’ category. And Northwestern’s issues against strong defensive teams and strong rebounding teams are primed to rear their head’s again here. Short chalk worth laying! Take Vanderbilt. |
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03-15-17 | Akron v. Houston -8 | 78-75 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#630) Akron was the class of the MAC with a 14-4 mark during the regular season, 26-8 overall. But it’s going to be very hard for the Zips to play at their regular season capabilities tonight following a crushing loss to Kent in the MAC Championship Game last weekend, relegating the Zips to the NIT for the second consecutive year. Make no mistake about it – that loss to the Golden Flashes was absolutely devastating for this team, as their head coach will tell you Zips head coach Keith Dambrot: “It’s more emotional preparation than physical preparation at this point. Do we have enough in our tank emotionally coming off two disappointments two years in a row to play a good game in the NIT? That’s probably the toughest challenge I’m going to face as a coach, trying to motivate my guys…… I think we’ll play but it’s not easy, emotionally, on them.” Junior guard Antino Jackson: “You know, it’s kind of emotional. This is the second year in the row this has happened to me, so I’m taking it pretty rough.” To make matters even worse, Coach Dambrot is giving his team excuse after excuse for a no-show tonight. “For the life of me, I don’t think we’ve been treated fairly by the NIT yet. Last year we should have had a home game.” When a coach complains about seeding from last year, it’s NEVER a positive sign for his team’s performance moving forward. Even with three key contributors from the Houston area as a motivator, this is not a spot for Akron to bring anything resembling their ‘A’ game. This is not a true home game for Houston, playing on the Texas Southern University campus due to renovations to Hofheinz Pavilion. But the Cougs are relishing this opportunity, with one positive quote after the next from a squad that got bounced out of the NIT in an opening round road loss last year - -Kelvin Sampson’s squad is coming to play tonight, something I can’t say with confidence about their opponent. Expect a comfortable win for the favorite….Take Houston. |
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03-14-17 | Valparaiso v. Illinois -8.5 | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#552) Illinois fired head coach John Groce over the weekend, after the Illini were bounced from the Big 10 Tournament. But the rest of the Illini coaching staff was retained for the NIT Tournament, and interim head coach Jamall Walker appears to be pushing all the right buttons for a team that played pretty good basketball down the stretch. Walker said not much will change in terms of offense, defense or personnel, coming out of practice that he ‘liked’. Walker: “You only have 48 hours so my job is to basically get them mentally ready to go. This isn’t my team and to be honest it wasn’t John Groce’s team. It’s Tracy Abrams’ team. It’s Malcolm Hill’s team. It’s Maverick Morgan’s team. They will determine what they want to show. I told them that. What do you want to show? We talk about legacy around here. They still have an opportunity to show what they’re about. We use basketball as a platform for that. They have a great opportunity to show what kind of character they have.” Senior Malcolm Hill talked about the Illini loss at Alabama in the first round of the NIT two years ago, when Alabama had just fired head coach Anthony Grant. “The one thing I do remember is that Alabama had just fired their head coach and they were really inspired to play for him. If we take that same mindset, that would be good for us. Alabama played inspired… that’s how we should be.” Valpo’s season essentially ended when their best player – the Horizon League Player of the Year, Alec Peters and his 23 points/10 rebounds per game – suffered a season ending injury in late February. Since the injury, the Crusaders have only one win – all the way back on February 24th. In their only game in the past 17 days, Valpo scored 41 points and lost outright as nine point chalk; not exactly a squad in mid-season form right now. This quote from first year, first time head coach Matt Lottich after their Horizon League tourney early exit is ‘coach-speak’ at it’s finest. Read between the lines here and you can sense Lottich is not the most confident guy heading into this matchup: “We’re going to continue to fight and we’re going to continue to practice…. love this group, I love coaching them. They never make excuses, they continue to push forward. They give me everything they’ve got. That’s all I can ask.” Even if the Crusaders bring it, ‘everything they’ve got’ won’t be enough here. Take Illinois. |
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03-12-17 | Cincinnati +2 v. SMU | 56-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#891) Mick Cronin has been setting up his rotation for Sunday since the Bearcats blowout win over Tulsa on Friday. Cronin emptied his bench in the second half of that game – nobody on the roster reached 30 minutes of court time. In yesterday’s semi-final matchup, Cronin did it again, with only two starters reaching the 30 minute mark against UConn. It’s surely worth noting that the Bearcats shot only 38% from the floor against the Huskies, yet still won the game by a double digit margin. That stands in sharp contrast with the SMU portion of this equation. Tim Jankovich has a roster built for a deep NCAA tournament run – the Mustangs top six players are extremely talented and remarkably versatile. But in a short turnaround setting like this one, SMU’s complete and utter lack of depth is a real problem. Only those top six players saw the court yesterday and they combined for the 188 of SMU’s 200 minutes in Friday’s huge blown lead game against East Carolina. Adrenaline tends to run out by the finale in these ‘three games in three days’ settings. SMU has shot 55% from the floor and 47% from three point range in their last five games, including 53% shooting overall in this tournament. Now they’re facing a defensive juggernaut. Cinci has allowed only 38% shooting for the season, ranked #6 in the country in defensive efficiency. Don’t expect those SMU shots to fall at anywhere near the same rate today….. Take Cinci. |
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03-11-17 | Colorado State v. Nevada -5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#748) I’m keeping this one short & sweet. Nevada has been the class of this conference from Day 1 this year. They just beat the Rams by 13 on their home floor last weekend despite Colorado State hitting ten three pointers and 82% from the free throw line. The Wolfpack controlled the paint in that contest. And their quartet of double digit scorers – Marcus Marshall, Cam Oliver, Jordan Caroline and DJ Fenner – combined to get one good look after the next, with three of the four producing 18 points or more. Colorado State can’t match Nevada’s firepower. Four of their five starters played at least 34 minutes yesterday. Their best player, Gian Clavell, played all 40 minutes. Big man Emmanuel Omogbo was in for 36. This is not a team loaded with quality depth behind their top two players, and in a third game in three days situation, I don’t trust the Rams stars to bring their A’ game here. Bet the class…..Take Nevada. |
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03-11-17 | Vanderbilt -3.5 v. Arkansas | 62-76 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#739) My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner supporting the Commodores yesterday in their OT victory against Florida. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “ “Flying waaaaaay underneath the radar, Vandy is as hot as any team in college basketball right now: 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last eight ballgames. The Commodores are playing stifling defense – four of their last five opponents have made 20 shots or less against them in the 40 minutes of regulation basketball. Vandy hits their free throws, better than 77% for the full season, Top 10 in the country. Bryce Drew’s teams have enjoyed tournament success before at Valpo, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Vandy knocks off Florida in SU fashion for the third time this season.” Vandy also beat Arkansas pretty soundly, at Arkansas, less than a month ago. The Razorbacks had no answers for the Commodores size in the paint (Vandy won the rebounding battle by 13) and couldn’t hit a deep shot against Vandy’s defensive pressure on the perimeter. Arkansas won yesterday by a point against Ole Miss thanks to 87% free throw shooting and only ten turnovers. I’m not expecting a repeat in either category today! Take Vandy. |
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03-10-17 | Vanderbilt +7 v. Florida | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#557) Florida has one fatal flaw that has hurt them repeatedly this season – their lack of a ‘go-to’ guy for crunch time scoring. When the Gators were winning national championships, they had NBA talent all over this roster: like Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer. Billy Donovan recruited well throughout his tenure here: Bradley Beal, David Lee, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Chandler Parsons, Matt Bonner, Marrese Speights, Jason Williams and Nick Calathes, just to name some. This Florida team doesn’t have anybody who will be playing in the NBA next year. Devin Robinson might make it to the D-League; KeVaughn Allen isn’t even being talked about any more, and that’s about it for top line talent. The Gators don’t beat themselves, but despite their lofty record, Florida is a long way from ‘elite status, as clearly shown by their 0-fer the season ATS mark as an underdog. Vanderbilt didn’t beat Florida twice during the regular season by accident, winning outright as 3.5 and 11.5 point underdogs in the two meetings. That’s been the case repeatedly of late – Vandy is 6-1 ATS against Florida in the last seven meetings – underdogs in every one of those pointspread covers -- and haven’t lost by more than three points to the Gators since 2013. Flying waaaaaay underneath the radar, Vandy is as hot as any team in college basketball right now: 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in their last seven ballgames. The Commodores are playing stifling defense – three of their last five opponents have made 18 shots or less against them in 40 minutes of basketball. They hit their free throws, better than 77% for the full season, Top 10 in the country. Bryce Drew’s teams have enjoyed tournament success before at Valpo, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Vandy knocks off Florida in SU fashion for the third time this season. Take Vandy. |
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03-10-17 | TCU v. Iowa State -4.5 | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#574) Make no mistake about it – TCU got the win of their season yesterday; not a team primed for back-2-back upsets in Big 12 tourney action. The Horned Frogs knocked off the #1 team in the country yesterday, beating Kansas, on the heels of a big win over Oklahoma in their opener. Their point guard, Alex Robinson, and wing/top rebounder Kenrich Williams have combined to play 144 out of a possible 160 minutes over the past two days; not a ‘fresh’ team today And this quote from senior guard Brandon Parrish tells us all we need to know about the impact of yesterday’s victory: “This is the win of my career, right here, to be completely honest. A lot of times people would tell us that we were never good enough, we would never be able to get it done.” It’s going to be extremely difficult for this squad to come back to earth after yesterday’s emotional high. Iowa State seniors Monte Morris, Matt Thomas and Naz Mitrou-Long hare a truly remarkable track record in this Big 12 tourney. They won it as freshmen. They won it as sophomores. They covered the spread in defeat as underdogs in their lone tourney game last year and they beat Oklahoma State yesterday in their tourney opener. Add it up and we’re talking about a group of seniors who are 7-1 SU, 7-0-1 ATS in this tournament, a streak worth riding again tonight. The Cyclones beat the Horned Frogs by 13 when they met last month, despite a 52% shooting effort from TCU. Don’t expect Jamie Dixon’s squad to approach those lofty shooting numbers here on their third game in three days. Take Iowa State. |
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03-09-17 | San Diego State v. Boise State +1.5 | 87-68 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Boise (#790) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) San Diego State carries a huge reputation here in Las Vegas; the class of the Mountain West Conference for the better part of the last decade. Even in a down season for the program, the betting markets don’t take the Aztecs lightly. That’s why they were double digit favorites yesterday against UNLV, a game where San Diego State needed a furious second half rally to send the game into overtime before a 12-0 run to open the extra session. And that’s why Steve Fisher’s squad is chalk again here, despite the fact that they are the weaker of these two teams right now. San Diego State has a grand total of eight pointspread covers in their 27 lined games this year. Their last pointspread cover came at home, more than a month ago. Prior to yesterday’s win over the Rebels, the Aztecs hadn’t won a game on the highway in more than a month. A San Diego State fan base that normally travels well to Vegas is a good notch or two light this year. The Aztecs shot 33% from the floor and committed 16 turnovers yesterday, surviving and advancing thanks to UNLV’s own ineptitude plus a strong 21-26 effort from the charity stripe. That strong free throw shooting is an outlier for a team that has shot less than 70% from the line this year. And Boise isn’t a team loaded with bricklayers like UNLV – they hung 78 on the Aztecs on 45% shooting in their lone regular season matchup, a double digit Broncos win. The Aztecs are going to need to hit shots tonight, a consistent problem for them all year. Boise hung tough at Oregon on November 28th, losing by only five points as a 17.5 point underdog. That set the tone for the season for a squad that was a consistent money winner away from home, including SU road wins at Loyola Marymount, Utah State, right here at the Thomas & Mack against UNLV, Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force. And, quite frankly, Boise is the better of these two teams; a veteran squad worthy of support in their Mountain West Tourney opener. Take Boise. |
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03-09-17 | Texas +11.5 v. West Virginia | 53-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#755) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) Four key factors in play for me on this one. First, I want my money on Shaka Smart in tournament settings. He got this job because of his remarkable tournament success at VCU, both in the A-10 tourney’s and, of course in the Big Dance. We saw Texas rally back from a double digit deficit in conference tourney action last night, exerting their will as underdogs against Texas Tech. That’s on Smart, a ‘bet-on’ coach as a double digit underdog in this setting. Secondly, there aren’t many coaches I’d prefer to have my money on against a pressing defense than Shaka Smart. Smart has utilized many of the same defensive mechanisms as his counterpart on the West Virginia sidelines, Bob Huggins. His team faces those presses in practice every day. Even without an ‘A’ level point guard on the roster, the Longhorns has the passing acumen to survive the Mountaineers defensive onslaught. Third, West Virginia isn’t built to win by big margins in halfcourt games. The Mountaineers are at their best when they are pressing, forcing turnovers in bunches, and getting easy fast break buckets. Put this team in a ‘grind it out’ setting where they have to execute their halfcourt offense and all of a sudden, this double digit pointspread looks rather large. Lastly, for much of their Big 12 campaign, Texas lacked quality depth, a staple of what Shaka Smart needs to run his gameplan effectively. But even without Tevin Mack available, Smart has gotten quality minutes out of his developing bench of late – only two starters reached the 30 minute mark yesterday. The Longhorns improved depth gives me the confidence that they can hang tough here for the full 40 minutes. Take Texas. |
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03-09-17 | Indiana v. Iowa +2 | 95-73 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#724) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) No Big 10 team was hotter down the stretch than underrated and underappreciated Iowa. The Hawkeyes came on like a freight train in recent weeks, riding a 4-0 SU and ATS run into the tourney. That included outright upset wins at Wisconsin and at Maryland, as well as an OT win over the same Indiana team they’ll face today. In that meeting against the Hoosiers, Iowa was able to penetrate the paint again and again, resulting in a whopping 47-19 edge at the free throw line. And there’s little reason to think that Tom Crean’s underachieving squad will be able to shut down senior leader Peter Jok and his young but talented teammates. Indiana has won a grand total of three games away from home all year. One of them came back on opening night in November against Kansas, a win that essentially left them overrated since. The other two wins away from home? By 3 at Penn State and by 4 at Ohio State, two teams that have had a REALLY hard time closing teams out all year. This is NOT a team to be trusted laying points; 0-fer the season as short favorites (-4.5 or less) and 33% ATS when laying 15 or less. Take Iowa. |
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03-09-17 | Duke v. Louisville -1.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Louisville (#714) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) I’ll keep this short and sweet. Duke has no depth, especially with Grayson Allen a complete non-factor since his injury in late February (a total of five made shots in the Blue Devils last five games; more fouls than points, rebounds and assists combined in 12 minutes yesterday). Clemson gave them a battle to the final minute yesterday; a game in which Duke’s starters combined for 178 of the 200 minutes of court time, while the bench produced a grand total of two points, three rebounds and an assist. Coach K has bigger fish to fry than the ACC Tournament. A weekend practicing back home, trying to get Allen healthy again is not a bad thing for this team, as opposed to going all out in what will be a BRUTAL run to the finals in this loaded tourney. I do not expect a ‘balls to the wall’ effort from the Blue Devils today. Louisville comes into the game with an inherent advantage, just like they had in the first meeting (a comfortable nine point win). Louisville’s constant pressure on defense wears opponents down, even if they don’t force turnovers in bunches. Duke has no depth and played a tight game yesterday. Expect Louisville’s presses to have the desired effect here – Duke will not be ‘fresh’ for the second half of this one! And make no mistake about it – this game, and this tournament, means more to Louisville than perhaps any other team in the conference. Rick Pitino is a conference tourney guy: 12-2 SU & ATS since 2012. He owns 11 conference tournament championships in four different leagues over the past 2 ½ decades. Louisville was ineligible last year and they got bounced from their opener in their first ever ACC tourney in 2015. This team has a statement to make this weekend, and I expect it to start right here! Big Ticket: Take Louisville. |
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03-08-17 | Penn State -1 v. Nebraska | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Penn State (#561) My clients and I have been betting against Nebraska consistently in recent weeks, a team that has been power rated in the wrong range for the better part of the last two months. The betting markets got the wrong idea about this team in January when they opened Big 10 play with road wins at Indiana and Maryland, followed by a home victory over Iowa. Since that time, the Huskers are 3-12 SU. They’ve lost four straight games by 15 points or more, non-competitive in defeat. Their only victory away from home since New Year’s Day was a minor miracle at Ohio State, stealing a one point win in a game they trailed by five with 30 seconds to play. Last time out, on senior night, at home against Michigan this past weekend, the Huskers were complete no-shows, falling behind by double digits early and never showing the pride, energy and determination to make a run at any point in that game. Tim Miles is clearly on the hot seat and his team has stopped buying into his message. Nebraska’s collapse has been most obvious on the defensive end of the court. In recent weeks, the Huskers have allowed 93 to Michigan, 88 to Minnesota, 88 to Michigan State, 81 to Iowa and 80 to Purdue, not exactly ‘shut down’ defense. Their last five opponents have combined to shoot 51% from the floor and 41% from three point range against them in one ‘no-show’ after the next. I’m not worried one iota about some positive Huskers quotes coming into the Big 10 Tourney. The same players have been delivering the same type of quotes throughout this dismal run. And the Huskers opponent, Penn State, has been feisty as hell in this tournament throughout the Patrick Chambers era, including a 4-0 ATS mark in this tourney over the past two seasons. That’s an ATS run worth riding again today in a game where Nebraska will be hard pressed to compete for 40 minutes. Big Ticket: Take Penn State. |
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03-08-17 | Stanford v. Arizona State +4.5 | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#554) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) Stanford can’t be laying points away from home. The Cardinal went 1-8 SU on the highway in PAC-12 action following an 0-2 road mark in non-conference play. Their only two pointspread covers came in defeat came as +13 and +21 underdogs. And their only road win came at hapless Oregon State (1-17 in conference) all the way back in mid-January. The Cardinal enter PAC-12 Tournament play in the midst of a three game skid; struggling on both ends of the court. They lost both regular season meetings against the Sun Devils, struggling with turnovers on offense and an inability to keep the Sun Devils contained on the perimeter without fouling on defense. The Cardinal got bounced in the opening round here in Vegas last year and went 0-2 ATS in the PAC-12 tourney the year before; their lone win coming by a single bucket; unable to build any margin. Look for Bobby Hurley’s ‘bombs away’ offense to give the Cardinal fits once again this afternoon in a game the Sun Devils are live to win. Take Arizona State. |
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03-08-17 | San Jose State +4.5 v. Utah State | 64-90 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take San Jose St (#547) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) This has been the worst season for Utah State in decades, a program in clear decline since legendary head coach Stew Morrill headed into retirement. They just lost on this floor to UNLV last week, a hard thing to do considering the Rebels comparable decline. San Jose, on the other hand, won here at the Thomas & Mack in Vegas against the Rebels, and won another road game away from home down the stretch at New Mexico. When these teams met in San Jose last month, Utah State shot 55% from the floor and hit 19 of their 20 free throw attempts. They won the game by six points. I do NOT expect the Aggies to approach those elite shooting percentages again here, in a game that has legitimate ‘upset alert’ potential. And it’s surely worth noting that Utah State has a grand total of three pointspread covers all year when laying -3 or higher, not exactly a track record of success in this role. Take San Jose St |
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03-06-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee +1 v. Illinois-Chicago | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin – Milwaukee (#537) My clients and I have been riding Wisconsin – Milwaukee in this tournament, cashing an Under in the Panthers first Horizon Conference Tourney game, then cashing with the Panthers as 8.5 point underdogs in their outright upset victory over Valpo the following night. Fresh off a day off yesterday, the Panthers are primed to cash another outright underdog bet for us tonight. Let me start with an extended excerpt from my last pro- Wisconsin –Milwaukee write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: ‘Wisconsin – Milwaukee has ‘Cinderella’ written all over them, worthy of support in Horizon League Tourney action tonight. The Panthers were supposed to be bad, with preseason projections putting them at the very bottom of the Horizon League. Those projections lived up to reality – Milwaukee finished last, with a 4-14 conference mark. ‘But a funny thing happened down the stretch for LaVall Jordan’s squad. Instead of getting blown out, they hung tough, again and again, away from home against the best teams in the conference. They took Oakland to OT before falling short, hung within six at Valpo, Northern Kentucky and Green Bay, took Youngstown St to OT and, after their upset over the Crusaders, notched three SU victories here in Detroit. ‘Senior guard Cody Wichmann: “Coach put it up on the board (Sunday), we’ve played with every team in this conference. So that … gives us hope, too…Basically, anything can happen is what it comes down to. Freshman year we had the same thing. We were picked not to finish anywhere near the top and we ran the table.” ‘Sophomore guard Brock Stull: “It makes it so the young guys have some sort of faith, trust the process. We know we have played with every single team in this conference. Tournament time is a different ballgame. Anything can happen and I think teams are going to be afraid to play us.” ‘Oakland U head coach Greg Kampe: “They took us to overtime at our place and they’re a 10 seed and we’re a 1, think about that.” ‘ Illinois –Chicago played their most recent matchup with the Panthers back in February at their preferred pace, hanging 85 points in regulation and another 20 in overtime in a bitterly contested 105-100 Flames victory. But right now, the Panthers aren’t letting anybody run and gun against them, slowing down Detroit and Valpo to a crawl in their first two wins of this tourney That’s a problematic pace for a UIC team that has struggled down the stretch, notching only one win since the weekend after Valentine’s Day! Take Wisconsin – Milwaukee. |
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03-05-17 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 138 | 93-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska – Michigan OVER (#849-850) Michigan is most assuredly not playing elite level defense down the stretch of their Big 10 campaign. The stats show it very clearly. The Wolverines rank #12 out of 14 Big 10 teams in defensive efficiency. They rank #327 in the country defending the three point line. They don’t force many turnovers either, leading to consistently poor defensive showings. In their last two games, Northwestern and Purdue lit up the Wolverines defense, combining to shoot better than 50% from the floor against them. And without a bigtime low post shot blocker, Nebraska’s offensive gameplan is primed to generate high percentage looks in the paint, just like they did in the first meeting in Ann Arbor, when they shot 56% from the floor and hung 85 points on the scoreboard. Facing a Michigan defense that has allowed a whopping 50.5% shooting from the floor against them on the highway for the full season, we can expect the Huskers to do their fair share of damage on the scoreboard tonight. Of course Michigan didn’t lose that first meeting – they hung 92 on the Cornhuskers behind 54% shooting. That game was the rule, not the exception for Michigan’s offense, ranked #1 in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency by a wide margin; right between Duke and Kansas in the national rankings (#11). And there’s little reason to expect Michigan’s offense to get shut down here – Nebraska hasn’t been getting stops against anybody of late. In recent weeks, the Huskers have allowed 8 8 to Minnesota, 88 to Michigan State, 81 to Iowa and 80 to Purdue, not exactly ‘shut down’ defense. In a series where the first meeting went Over the total by 43.5 points in regulation, I have little hesitation expecting another relatively high scoring affair in the rematch. Take the Over. |
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03-04-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee +9 v. Valparaiso | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin – Milwaukee (#671) Wisconsin – Milwaukee has ‘Cinderella’ written all over them, worthy of support in Horizon League Tourney action tonight. The Panthers were supposed to be bad, with preseason projections putting them at the very bottom of the Horizon League. Those projections lived up to reality – Milwaukee finished last, with a 4-14 conference mark. But a funny thing happened down the stretch for LaVall Jordan’s squad. Instead of getting blown out, they hung tough, again and again, away from home against the best teams in the conference. They took Oakland to OT before falling short, hung within six at Valpo, Northern Kentucky and Green Bay, took Youngstown St to OT and, after yesterday’s win over the Titans, notched two SU victories here in Detroit. Senior guard Cody Wichmann: “Coach put it up on the board (Sunday), we’ve played with every team in this conference. So that … gives us hope, too…Basically, anything can happen is what it comes down to. Freshman year we had the same thing. We were picked not to finish anywhere near the top and we ran the table.” Sophomore guard Brock Stull: “It makes it so the young guys have some sort of faith, trust the process. We know we have played with every single team in this conference. Tournament time is a different ballgame. Anything can happen and I think teams are going to be afraid to play us.” Oakland U head coach Greg Kampe: “They took us to overtime at our place and they’re a 10 seed and we’re a 1, think about that.” Valpo got bounced out of the tourney in their opening game last year, losing SU as nine point favorites to a Green Bay team that already had a pair of wins under their belts on the Joe Louis Arena floor. That isn’t new or different – the last double digit win that the Crusaders have notched on a neutral floor in conference tourney action came back when Butler was still in this league back in 2012. Expect a tight game throughout, and be sure to take at least a taste of the big plus price on the moneyline here.. Take Wisconsin Milwaukee |
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