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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#601) My clients and I cashed a winning bet on Michigan in their Big 10 Tourney Championship Game victory over Purdue. We cashed AGAINST the Wolverines in their ‘lucky to survive and advance’ game against the Houston Cougars. We cashed a winning Big Ticket wager on Michigan vs. both Texas A&M and Loyola – Chicago. We probably should have cashed a third Big Ticket supporting the Wolverines, but they choked away a double digit lead in the final minute against Florida State, resulting in a push. But the bottom line is that I’ve had a pretty darn good read on my alma mater here in the postseason, and I have no hesitation riding Michigan one more time in a game that has ‘battle down to the final possession’ written all over it! I have three basic points. First, Michigan has survived repeatedly without their ‘A’ game; Villanova isn’t going to play (or shoot) any better than they did on Saturday Night. They opened the game on a 22-4 run in the first seven minutes, on fire from the get-go. They finished the night shooting 55% from the floor and a Final Four record with 18 made three pointers. Head coach Jay Wright: “It was one of those nights (where every shot was falling).” I’m not expecting a repeat performance against the suffocating Wolverines perimeter defense; a defense that has only allowed 24% shooting from beyond the arc in this tournament. And Michigan keeps winning despite not playing 40 minutes of great basketball (with the exception of the A&M game). They’ve got a better game in them than the last two we’ve seen. ‘Nova doesn’t. Second, every team gets tested on their way to the title – when you go back and look through historical results, a 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS run to win the title is an extremely rare occurrence. ‘Nova has won each of their first five tourney games by a dozen points or more, going 5-0 ATS. They’ve only played four games decided by single digit margins since the beginning of February; not as battle tested in close games as Michigan. ‘Nova lost three of those SU and ATS, all as favorites, and failed to cover as chalk in a one point victory in the fourth. I’m not convinced that ‘Nova will respond well to a tight game during crunch time. Lastly, the value equation really points towards the Wolverines in this title game tilt. ‘Nova has an enormous public bandwagon due to their tourney ATS success, winning and covering every previous game. The Wildcats also have an enormous wiseguy bandwagon thanks to their ‘off-the-charts’ advanced metric offensive numbers, the second best statistical offense in college hoops over the past DECADE. With that type of a betting bandwagon – both public and wiseguys loving ‘Nova – there’s clearly (to this bettor at least) some added value on the Wolverines side of the equation. I’m going to ride Michigan one last time without hesitation in a game that should be a hotly contested battle, not a blowout. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 124 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#812) The Final Four is where teams like Loyola – non-elites who got hot at the right time, and faced the right draw – tend to go home. Yet when you’re as hot as Loyola has been in this tourney – four straight wins as an underdog, three of them coming in hotly contested, down-to-the-wire finishes – you build up a pretty big betting bandwagon. That’s why the Ramblers are an overvalued commodity heading into their Final Four matchup with the Wolverines. Betting markets focus on statistical profiles. The Ramblers have an impressive statistical profile. They rank in the Top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage from both two point range and three point range on offense. And Loyola ranks in the Top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency; putting up impressive numbers on both ends of the court. Throw in a 32-5 SU record and a 23-9-1 ATS record – the single best pointspread record in the country – and you can understand why the Ramblers have a BIG betting bandwagon supporting them right now. Who wants to bet against Sister Jean? We do, that’s who! A 98 year old nun was able to keep the spotlight from shining too brightly on the kids who actually won the games leading up to the Final Four, but all of that changes here. A team with no history of dealing with the spotlight and a group of players who have never anticipated being on this stage are likely to have a moment or two (or three, or four) where this stage gets a little bit too big for them. And the cavernous Alamodome is no friendly shooting venue for kids who haven’t been on this type of stage before. No disrespect to Miami, Tennessee, Kansas State or Nevada, but none of that quartet is as good as Michigan. In addition, that quartet of foes was notably short on team chemistry – only three senior starters combined on the four teams. Nevada was largely made up of transfers; K-State’s best low post threat was hurt and a non-factor. Loyola is no joke, but they’re taking a legitimate step up in class here. Michigan has shown repeatedly under John Beilein that the stage is never too big and the program is (almost) never in rebuilding mode. The Wolverines team chemistry on offense can only be described as ‘spectacular’, despite their rough shooting here in the tournament. And that rough shooting is another reason why this play gets bumped up to Big Ticket status. The Wolverines went into their opening round matchup having scored at least a point per possession in each of their 18 previous NCAA Tournament games. Michigan is here in the Final Four despite reaching a point per possession only once in their first four tourney games – the one with the appropriate amount of prep time (vs. Texas A&M). Michigan bombed the Aggies for 99 points: 62% from the floor, 14-24 from three point range. Beilein with extra time (but not too much time, like the extended layoff after the Big 10 tourney) is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets and the Wolverines lack of ATS success in the Big Dance has them as a legitimate value laden squad in a game I expect them to win by a comfortable margin. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah | 64-69 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Western Kentucky (#777) The betting markets have these two teams essentially power rated equally right now, leaving us with a pick ‘em pointspread for Tuesday Night’s NIT semi-finals at Madison Square Garden. My numbers show Western Kentucky as the clear favorite in this one, setting up a wager on the Hilltoppers to reach the NIT Finals. Yes, Rick Stansbury entered the season with a severely depleted roster, to put it mildly. Their 15-17 team from last year returned only one PLAYER (zero starters) in Justin Johnson. All three of Stansbury’s assistant coaches from last year left the program. To say that expectations were modest is something of an understatement. But Stansbury hit the recruiting trail hard. He brought in transfers Darius Thompson (Tennessee & Virginia), Dwight Coleby (Ole Miss & Kansas), also Lamonte Bearden (Buffalo). He brought in freshmen Taveion Hollingsworth and Josh Anderson, who combined to average 21 points per game between them. The talent influx was easy to spot from Day 1. Western Kentucky enjoyed the benefits of a summer trip to Costa Rica, building chemistry early. They enjoyed a great, confidence boosting non-conference slate, including a three game set in the Bahamas against ‘Nova, Purdue and a healthy (at the time) SMU team, going 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS against that trio of heavyweights, with all three covers coming by double digit margins. But after rolling through their C-USA slate, they lost a one point heartbreaker to Marshall, relegating them to the NIT. Some teams would be crushed by that type of defeat, especially against a Thundering Herd squad that they dominated in both regular season meetings. Not this squad! The Hilltoppers blew out Boston College in their tourney opener, then went on the road and knocked off USC and Oklahoma State; a team playing their best ball of the season right now. With five double digit scorers, this team is going to be a real handful for Utah to defend. Many things have broken right for Utah to reach the NIT’s Final Four. The Utes got a friendly draw – Cal Davis wasn’t much of a test, LSU was banged up and not interested, and St Mary’s couldn’t survive an OT game where they shot 36% from the free throw line. But second leading scorer and rebounder David Collette just had his first child over the weekend, a major distraction for the senior. 150 pound point guard Justin Bibbins won’t have a major quickness edge here like he did in the Utes run to get here. And only one of these two teams was a consistent moneymaker away from home this year – Western Kentucky – while the Utes did the vast majority of their damage in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City. Expect a Hilltoppers victory! Take Western Kentucky. |
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03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | 81-85 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#721) My clients and I bet on Duke vs. Syracuse on Friday Night. The bad news is that the Blue Devils did not play particularly well on either end of the court, costing us a wager. The good news is that loss has prevented anything resembling a Duke betting bandwagon forming, leaving ample value to back Coach K’s squad in their Elite Eight matchup on Sunday. Duke did not execute their gameplan against Syracuse. They struggled to control the offensive glass and missed open look after open look, hitting just 39% from the floor overall and 19% from three point range. In a matchup against Kansas, I expect all of those numbers to improve. Kansas ranks #295 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage – even worse than Syracuse. Duke ranks #1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Duke’s second chance opportunities were not difference makers ATS when they were -11 on Friday, but in this pointspread range, I expect the Blue Devils low post acumen to be a legitimate difference maker. Wendall Carter and Marvin Bagley have the edge over foul prone Udoka Azubuike, plain and simple. I also expect Duke’s zone defense to give Kansas fits. Kansas has shot 45% from beyond the arc in their last five games – a huge part of their recent success -- but they haven’t been facing a defense like this one. The Blue Devils have allowed more than 70 points just ONCE in their last dozen games, quite simply stifling foes on the perimeter. In a game where the Jayhawks are likely to lose the battle of the boards by margin, a tough matchup on the perimeter is likely to doom their Final Four chances on Sunday. Take Duke. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -4 | 54-58 | Push | 0 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#516) My clients and I cashed as easy a Big Ticket winner as we’ll ever have on Michigan in their Sweet 16 blowout over Texas A&M. And there’s no reason to think that the Wolverines aren’t a ‘bet-on’ squad once again on Sunday as they battle upstart Florida State. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Wolverines write-up: This one is real simple. Michigan did NOT bring their ‘A’ game last weekend in either contest; particularly on the offensive end of the court. The Wolverines went into their game against Montana having scored at least a point per possession in 18 consecutive games against Big 10 competition. Yet Michigan didn’t manage to reach a point per possession in their wins over Montana or Houston last weekend. They were awful from long distance as well, hitting just 28% from beyond the arc in their two games at Wichita. Wolverines head coach John Beilein: “We’re doing some things that I don’t know and we got to address them and try to get better at them. I think we made some of the mistakes — we have only lost seven games, but those seven losses I felt we did some things that just don’t make sense and they’re not characteristic.” I concur wholeheartedly; and I certainly don’t expect another ‘not characteristic’ offensive game here. The Wolverines shot 62% from the floor against the Aggies while hitting 14-24 from three point range. I do NOT expect Michigan to match those offensive numbers here. However, Michigan’s defense is primed to give a team like Florida State fits; a very difficult matchup for the underdog. Michigan ranks #3 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and #31 in defensive rebounding percentage – the Wolverines eliminate transition opportunities, get stops in the halfcourt and corral their opponents’ missed shots. Florida State ranks among the faster teams in the country in average length of possessions – they want to push tempo and often lack patience in halfcourt sets. Michigan doesn’t let ANYBODY push tempo against them, ranked #299 in the country in average length of possession on defense. The Seminoles are coming off two wins against uptempo foes Xavier and Gonzaga. I legitimately question their ability to shift gears into a slower tempo game with less than 48 hours of prep time. And the Seminoles dicey numbers defending the three point line gives me confidence that at some point in this ballgame, Michigan is going to go on a big run and take control. Take Michigan |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Texas Tech (#873) With all hands back on deck, Texas Tech is an undervalued commodity right now. Let’s not forget that the Red Raiders were 22-4 & ranked in the Top 10 when the injury bug struck. Senior point guard Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury and missed five games. Senior forward Zack Smith also missed extended time. Senior wing Justin Gray missed action during that skid as well. All three of those guys are healthy now, combining for 43 points and 17 rebounds in the win over Florida to reach the Sweet 16. But the Red Raiders are not about offense – this team reached the Top 10 because of their elite level defensive numbers. That being said, I want my money on Keenan Evans in a tight game late – there’s a reason Texas Tech has won 70% of their games decided by five points or less or in OT this year….. The Red Raiders finished the regular season as one of only two teams in the country ranking in the Top 15 in both effective field goal percentage allowed on defense and turnovers forced on defense. When you are pressuring opposing shooters AND forcing turnovers in bunches, you win games and cover pointspreads – period. I’m a big fan of Chris Beard, and think Beard has a legitimate edge over Matt Painter with extra time to prepare. And this quote from Beard is truly a ‘bet-on’ quote: “Anything you want in life, kind of like basketball, I think you have to have a plan for what you want. So we’d like to have a good March. Our plan is pretty specific. And one of the parts of our plan is we want to try to have more fun than anybody in college basketball this month. So, led by our seniors, we’re going to try to enjoy every moment. That’s what March is. I’m glad our guys are having fun.” I’ve had the same read on Purdue all year long – a Sweet 16 caliber team, not a Final Four squad. The Isaac Haas injury certainly won’t help their offensive game. While backup Matt Haarms can play defense and rebound, he’s not much of a scoring threat or much of a passer out of the low post. For an ‘inside-out’ offense like that of the Boilermakers, an injured low post stud isn’t going to help matters. And a Purdue defense that has had a 7-footer on the court as a rim protector at all times this year won’t have that same level of low post defense tonight. Take Texas Tech. |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke -11 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Duke (#876) My clients and I cashed winning bets on Syracuse in all three of the Orange victories last week, as Syracuse knocked off Arizona State, TCU and Michigan State, all as underdogs. That was then, this is now. Jim Boeheim’s squad enjoys a major advantage against teams that haven’t seen their 2-3 matchup zone before. In three tourney games, the Orange have held foes to 0.89 points per possession and 25.6% shooting from three point range. But Syracuse won’t have that same edge vs. fellow ACC foe Duke. ACC foes -- teams that see this zone every year – hit 8% higher from three point range for the season, and averaged more than a point per possession. The Blue Devils faced Syracuse less than a month ago. The Syracuse zone gave them fits on the perimeter, as Duke hit only 2-18 from three point range. It didn’t matter. Coach K designed a gameplan to feed his bigs, throwing over the zone into the low post. Wendall Carter and Marvin Bagley combined to shoot 13-20 from the floor, finishing with 35 points and 17 rebounds between them. That’s a matchup edge the Blue Devils know how to exploit – they’ve been running the same defense themselves for the better part of the last six weeks -- and that matchup edge hasn’t gone away. There’s one major weakness for Jim Boeheim’s defensive approach – it affects their defensive rebounding in a negative way. For the season, Syracuse ranks #240 in the country at controlling the defensive glass – they give up waaaaaaay to many second chance looks. Michigan State had a 29-7 edge on the offensive glass against the Orange last Sunday, but they kept missing their second chance tries. Duke is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the COUNTRY, capturing more than 39% of their own misses. Expect controlling the glass to be a major problem for the Orange tonight. Syracuse scored a grand total of 44 points in the first meeting, and they’ve yet to crack 60 in the NCAA Tournament. This can’t be a surprise for a team that hasn’t been able to put the biscuit in the basket all year, ranked #325 in effective field goal percentage offense; dismal from two point range (#323) and three point range (#309). In a game totaled in the 130’s, Syracuse’s offensive weaknesses are likely to doom their chances. Expect a blowout. Big Ticket: Take Duke. |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -3 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#818) This one is real simple. Michigan did NOT bring their ‘A’ game last weekend in either contest; particularly on the offensive end of the court. The Wolverines went into their game against Montana having scored at least a point per possession in 18 consecutive games against Big 10 competition. Yet Michigan didn’t manage to reach a point per possession in their wins over Montana or Houston last weekend. They were awful from long distance as well, hitting just 28% from beyond the arc in their two games at Wichita. That leaves Michigan without a significant betting bandwagon here, an undervalued commodity heading into Thursday’s showdown at the Staples Center in LA. Wolverines head coach John Beilein: “We’re doing some things that I don’t know and we got to address them and try to get better at them. I think we made some of the mistakes — we have only lost seven games, but those seven losses I felt we did some things that just don’t make sense and they’re not characteristic.” I concur wholeheartedly; and I certainly don’t expect another ‘not characteristic’ offensive game here. To survive and advance without playing particularly well on offense in either game is a testament to Beilein’s coaching acumen. And when we look at Beilein with extra time to prepare for the second weekend of NCAA Tournament Games, the results are consistently strong even dating back to his tenure at West Virginia; a ‘bet-on’ coach in these settings . Billy Kennedy has no similar track record in tournament settings, and his Aggies, unlike the Wolverines, can’t play much better than they did last weekend. Kennedy has turned to frosh point guard TJ Starks here in the Big Dance, averaging 33 minutes and 18 points last weekend compared to 21 minutes and 10 points during the regular season. I don’t want a frosh point guard – even a very good one – against Beilein’s defense in this pointspread range. The Aggies interior size helped them dominate North Carolina last Sunday, but their lack of quickness is poised to doom their chances against the Wolverines on Thursday. VERY cheap price to lay with the superior team coming off a shoddy showing, in a game that I expect them to win by margin! Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -1.5 | 69-68 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#816) Loyola won’t beat themselves; a fundamentally sound basketball team on both ends of the court. But it’s certainly not going to be easy for the Ramblers to match up with Nevada’s NBA caliber talent. Loyola is in the Sweet 16 because of two last second buzzer beaters – true. But really, they are in the Sweet 16 because they just faced a pair of very young teams that the Ramblers were able to out-execute. Loyola has more senior starters (two) than Miami and Tennessee combined (one). And with seven frosh or sophomore starters for the Vols and Hurricanes; their collective lack of polish in the latter stages allowed enough of a window for Loyola to climb through. That was then. This is now. Nevada might have entered the tourney with a lower seed than Tennessee or Miami, but they’re not a squad lacking in talent. They’ve got a former NBA head coach in Eric Musselman and a pair of guys with NBA upside, including leading scorer Caleb Martin and fellow ball handling wing Kendall Stephens. And, crucially, unlike the two teams Loyola just beat, the Wolfpack aren’t loaded with youngsters. Five of Musselman’s six rotation players are juniors and seniors and the sixth, sophomore Josh Hall, has played more than 1200 minutes for the Wolfpack in his first two seasons in Reno. Nevada’s lack of depth – Musselman routinely uses only one guy off the bench – has resulted in two strong factors in their favor. First, the Wolfpack enjoy truly outstanding on-court chemistry, committing a grand total of NINE turnovers in their first two tourney games, continuing a season long testament to outstanding execution on offense. Secondly, the Wolfpack have developed tremendous conditioning; a team that consistently closes out games with a flourish! Playing in altitude (both at home and on the road), and dealing with a short rotation has led to quotes like this one, from coach Musselman: “We put such a premium on being in such great physical condition, in nutrition. We go really, really hard in practice. There’s no standing around. In 2 hours, we basically get 3½ hours of work done, which conditions their bodies.” Or this quote from Jordan Caroline, who led the Mountain West Conference in minutes played: “We did a lot more intense stuff over the summer, like the Tahoe runs. You go up to the mountains and it’s hard to breath. The elevation factor definitely makes a difference. Then when we go to other places, we have lungs for days.” No surprise here if the Wolfpack ‘lungs’ are difference makers in this one. Sorry, Sister Jean, but it’s time for Loyola to go home. Take Nevada. |
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03-20-18 | Penn State v. Marquette OVER 150.5 | 85-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Penn State – Marquette OVER (#665-666) Oregon scored at a 1.18 points per possession clip on Marquette in the Golden Eagles last game, one of many shoddy defensive showings for Steve Wojciechowski’s squad throughout the course of the campaign. But with a pair of 20 points per game scorers in Markus Howard and Andrew Rowsey capable of lighting up the scoreboard; Marquette’s limited defensive acumen hasn’t hurt them in the NIT. They’ve shot 45% from three point range and 90% from the charity stripe through their first two NIT games on this floor, primed for similar success tonight. Penn State has been mired in the muck – they, quite literally, haven’t faced a true uptempo team like Marquette in months. After playing one grinder after the next in Big 10 action -- and even in the first two rounds of the NIT against Notre Dame and Temple – this is the first chance for the Nittany Lions to play in space on the offensive end. With elite level guard play from Tony Carr and Josh Reaves, look for Penn State’s offensive execution to be rock solid in this one. Penn State has hit their free throws at a 75% clip over their last five games. Their best shot blocker and low post defender Mike Watkins just got hurt, a major loss on the defensive end. And, in this pointspread range, with a trip to the NIT Final Four on the line, don’t be shocked in the slightest if we see ‘scramble points’ in bunches over the final few minutes of this contest. Take the Over. |
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03-19-18 | LSU v. Utah -4.5 | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#620) Utah didn’t bring their ‘A’ game for their NIT opener against UC Davis. Head coach Larry Krystowiak was not amused, getting ejected from the game early and sparking his team to victory. Utes senior Ty Rawson – one of four senior starters for the Utes – admitted that his team lacked focus early, but they’re ready to go now: “Now it’s just one step closer (to the Final Four at Madison Square Garden).” Junior Parker Van Dyke: "It’s always fun to have a big-time school come in hereWe’ve done pretty well against the SEC this year (beating both Missouri and Ole Miss). A tournament atmosphere is definitely different than any other kind of game. So it feels good to get that first one under our belt. Now we can just move forward with confidence knowing we can win in a tournament style of play.” LSU’s Will Wade knows what’s coming tonight, already making excuses before tip-off: “They're a very good team. And there's no easy comparison to anyone we've seen in the SEC. It's a big challenge for us, especially on the road." To make matters worse for the Tigers, they are most assuredly not a healthy team right now, dealing with a bevy of bumps and bruises. Leading scorer, frosh Tremont Waters just had surgery on his broken nose, although he is expected to suit up. Skylar Mays hasn’t been able to practice, dealing with a broken bone in his non-shooting hand. Aaron Epps and Duop Reath are both ailing as well. For a team that hasn’t won a single game away from home since January 10th (0-8 SU, without a single pointspread cover during that span), it’s not hard to make a case for fading them tonight in Salt Lake City. Take Utah. |
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03-18-18 | Syracuse +9.5 v. Michigan State | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#715 ) There are four key factors in play here for me. First, I’ve had success both this year and in season’s past betting against many of the ‘public’ favorites in the Round of 32. Make no mistake about it – both the public and the wiseguys are betting Michigan State today – the sportsbooks need Syracuse, and I have no hesitation betting with the books and against the public at this time of the year. Second, we’ve been riding Syracuse as an undervalued commodity in this tournament so far, cashing winning bets with the Orange as underdogs against Arizona State and TCU in their first two tournament games. Syracuse is a tough out, for sure; a team that was clearly gassed down the stretch – Jim Boeheim’s team lacks quality depth – but had a much needed full week off prior to the start of the tourney. And after winning their first two tourney games in SU fashion despite some ugly offensive numbers in both games – 37% shooting against the Horned Frogs with only three made three pointers; 41% shooting and ten missed free throws against the Sun Devils – Syracuse has clearly proven that elite level offensive execution isn’t the difference maker for their pointspread success. Third, Michigan State has all the makings of an overvalued commodity right now. Over the last five weeks, Tom Izzo’s squad has gone 6-1 SU, but only 2-5 ATS. They’ve been facing one relatively weak foe after the next: Northwestern, Wisconsin twice, Illinois, Minnesota and Bucknell. In fact, their only ‘step-up game since a three point win over Purdue on February 10th was a double digit loss to Michigan in the Big 10 tournament. Sparty hasn’t stepped up well in a while, and they’ve been an overvalued commodity in the betting markets for months. My numbers show Michigan State with a grand total of two ATS covers in their last 11 ballgames, not exactly ‘bet-on’ material. Lastly, Michigan State has a reputation as a zone killer this year, hence the wiseguy support for Michigan State in early betting action on Sunday. They finished #5 in the country in three point shooting percentage. But in Tom Izzo’s only try in the last decade against Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 matchup zone was a 72-58 Michigan State loss on an neutral floor. And it’s not like the Spartans have been raining three’s of late, hitting just 34% from beyond the arc over their last five contests. Expect a battle, not a blowout! Take Syracuse. |
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03-17-18 | Houston +3 v. Michigan | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#529) I could do this write-up in five words: “Houston is the real deal.” Frankly, this short pointspread clearly tells us that I’m not the only one with this opinion – the sharp $$ believes in Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars as well. Houston is 10-2 SU in their last dozen ballgames, including impressive wins over Cinci, Wichita State and San Diego State, among others, as well as a spread covering one point loss to the Bearcats in the AAC Championship Game. The AAC was no joke this year – it’s not like the Cougars aren’t battle tested; especially considering their non-conference slate that saw them knocking off Providence, Temple, Arkansas and Wake Forest, among others. Houston’s statistical profile is truly impressive, despite their relatively tough slate. The Cougars hit their free throws. They defend intensely, both on the perimeter and in the paint. Houston has low post size to bang with the Wolverines. They don’t turn the ball over on offense, and force turnovers in bunches on defense. They are an excellent three point shooting team as well; ‘bet-on’ in every sense of the word here in March. There’s more to the story than just my belief in the Cougars. Let’s start with Michigan’s power rating number. The Wolverines pulled off two ‘major’ upsets in the Big 10 Tournament, knocking off Michigan State and Purdue in back-2-back games. As a result of those two VERY late wins against quality foes, the Wolverines power ratings took a big jump upwards. The only problem with pricing Michigan higher now than before the Big 10 Tourney? Simple – the Wolverines were far more interested in a Big 10 Tourney title than their opponents were. Throw in a late, somewhat fraudulent cover against Montana in their Big Dance opener and suddenly, after an extended stretch as an undervalued commodity moneymaker, RIGHT NOW Michigan is an overvalued squad after going 9-1 ATS in their last ten games. The Wolverines public bandwagon is rather large these days. John Beilein has a tremendous track record as a tournament head coach, both in the Big Dance and in the Big 10 Tourney. But the results clearly show that when the Wolverines get knocked out of the tourney, they’re getting knocked out in the Saturday/Sunday games, not in the Thursday/Friday games where Beilein has extra time to prepare. Notre Dame beat ‘em in this spot in 2016; Kentucky did it on the second weekend of the tourney in 2014; and Houston is primed to do it on Saturday Night. Big Ticket: Take Houston. |
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03-17-18 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Gonzaga | 84-90 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Ohio State (#535) The betting markets have refused to accept Ohio State as a quality team for extended stretches this season. The Buckeyes aren’t here by accident. They beat Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue – the other three teams from the Big 10 that are going dancing this year. They’ve won nine games away from home, repeatedly proving to be the ‘tougher’ of the two teams in hostile environments. Look no further than their regular season finale win in OT at Indiana for a clear example. Even their first round win against South Dakota State showed that toughness – the Buckeyes survived and advanced despite a furious second half from the Jackrabbits. Ohio State has a low post stud with NBA upside in Keita Bates-Diop and multiple wings who bring it defensively – Chris Holtmann is a stellar defensive coach. I don’t anticipate the Zags getting many good looks in this one. Ohio State hits their free throws, a perfect 7-7 from the line in the final minute to get the cover on Thursday. They’ve got four double digit scorers, size at every position as well as elite level defensive and rebounding numbers; a team poised to survive and advance into the Sweet 16. I love the fact that the Zags handed an ugly blowout loss to the Buckeyes back in November; an 86-59 beatdown in Portland that remains Ohio State’s worst loss of the season. That’s a huge motivator for a tough team like the Buckeyes, and Ohio State is a MUCH more mature team now than they were in November. Gonzaga reached the national championship game last March, but their star point guard and their top two big men left in the offseason, a good notch or two down from a season ago. The Zags have been an overvalued commodity for months; riding a dismal 5-12 ATS run in their last 17 ballgames, never even sniffing a spread cover in their opener against NC Greensboro. I’m splitting my personal wager between the side and the moneyline in a game Ohio State is live to win. Take Ohio State. |
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03-17-18 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#527) Let me start with an extended excerpt from my write-up supporting Seton Hall in their tourney opener against NC State: “The Pirates have all the makings of a ‘bet-on’ team in the Big Dance this weekend. The Pirates bring four senior starters to the table, each of whom is making their third consecutive trip to the tourney. That quartet -- Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ismael Sanogo – has combined for more than 13,600 minutes, 5400 points and 3000 rebounds in their respective careers. They’ve been the most successful group of recruits in the modern history of the Pirates program. And they’ve never won an NCAA Tournament game. “Seton Hall beat Villanova in the Big East Conference Tournament Final in 2016 to earn (at the time) a very rare tourney bid, but they lost to Gonzaga in their opener. Last year, it was a tight six point loss to Arkansas to open the Big Dance; a game that turned on a VERY controversial flagrant foul call in the final seconds of what was (at the time) a one point game. “Seton Hall played more than their fair share of lethargic basketball this year; biding their time for another chance on college basketball’s biggest stage. I’m not a believer in the Pirates statistical profile that is not elite – this team has been waiting around all year, prepping for this week. I expect them to be tough as nails; a VERY tough out in this tournament, and potentially a bet on team moving forward.” This is ‘moving forward’, and Kansas is very beatable even in a friendly venue in Wichita. The Jayhawks never truly gelled this season and the markets are white hot on this team after a 3-0 SU and ATS run through the Big 12 Tourney and a cover in their opening round game against Penn thanks to a late 14-6 closeout run. Closeout runs against the Pirates are significantly more difficult to come by……Take Seton Hall. |
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03-16-18 | New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson | 68-79 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 31 m | Show | |
Take New Mexico State (#891) New Mexico State reached the Big Dance last year but their defense didn’t hold up against a hot shooting Baylor squad. The Aggies led outright at halftime as 11.5 point underdogs but wore down late, eventually losing and failing to cover. That was then; this is now. With the core of last year’s squad returning, expect a different outcome this time around. The WAC stinks as a conference, so the Aggies made the decision to schedule tough in November and December. They certainly stood toe-to-toe with quality foes – beating Miami, Davidson and Illinois while losing by only five to USC; a Trojans team that I have power rated higher than Clemson. The Aggies played defense this year under first year head coach Chris Jans, something they didn’t do much of last season. Jans has emphasized defense and rebounding from Day 1, and it’s paid off – they finished the regular season ranked in the Top 5 NATIONALLY in defensive field goal percentage allowed and rebounding margin. This is a team filled with transfers from higher profile programs – ‘Junkyard Dogs’ as they call themselves. Star Zack Lofton washed out at Minnesota. Point guard AJ Harris transferred from Ohio State. The quotes speak volumes for this team. Another transfer, Shunn Buchanan, talking about the Aggies mentality: “We play scrappy and grind’. Coach Jans: “They like one another. We’ve been blessed that way. They’ve bonded well with a lot of guys of different backgrounds…..they bought into playing with that nasty type of attitude.” I’m not finding many positive quotes coming out of the Clemson locker room these days. Brad Brownell’s team went 15-1 SU at home this year. But since second leading scorer and rebounder Dante Grantham got hurt in late January; they’ve been mediocre at best. The Tigers stumbled down the stretch, losing five of their last eight thanks to an offense that just couldn’t find a way to get the biscuit into the basket – they were held in the 50’s in four of those five losses. Expect a grinder of a game here; the type of contest primed to go right down to the final possession. Take New Mexico State. |
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03-16-18 | Syracuse +4 v. TCU | 57-52 | Win | 101 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#875) Syracuse was clearly gassed down the stretch – Jim Boeheim’s team lacks quality depth, getting less than 17 points per game from anyone other than their ‘Big 3’. But that ‘Big 3’ is really, really good, arguably the three best players on the floor in this match-up; making the Orange an attractive underdog on Friday Night. Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett are three guys who rarely leave the floor even for a minute. After the brutal, physical ACC schedule, that trio was clearly worn down. But after a full week off, that trio was as rested and ready as they’d been in months in the Orange upset victory over Arizona State on Wednesday. The Orange were able to survive and advance on Wednesday despite a very rough shooting night from the free throw line; the exception to the rule for a team that connected from the charity stripe at a better than 73% clip this season. And the Orange zone defense is primed to give an ‘offensive execution’ team like the Horned Frogs fits on Friday Night. TCU lost their starting point guard when Jaylen Fisher got hurt back in Janaury. 6-1, 175 pound backup Alex Robinson has done well in his absence, but he’s got a real size problem against the Orange defenders, just like Arizona State’s guards had earlier in the week. TCU has one win away from home since January, and that win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Iowa State. Live dog here! Take Syracuse. |
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03-16-18 | Murray State v. West Virginia -10.5 | 68-85 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia (#888) Murray State’s ‘best wins’ this year came against the likes of Illinois State, Wright State and Belmont, yet somehow, the Racers came away with a #51 RPI ranking, #58 according to KenPom. They faced only one ‘major’ opponent all year, and it came at home against Auburn, a game they lost at home. They also lost at home to Middle Tennessee in their other ‘toughest test’. West Virginia is better than both of those teams AND this game is in San Diego, a long, long way from the Racers home court. Against lower level competition, the Racers were able to cut off the passing lanes and force opponents into contested jump shots. They ranked among the Top 20 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage allowed on defense. Those numbers have certainly affected the pointspread for this game – Murray State is getting plenty of respect in the markets right now, but frankly, I’m not buying those advanced metric numbers one iota. Murray State’s primary ballhandlers are 6-0, 180 pound senior Jonathan Stark and 6-3 170 pound frosh Ja Morant. This is a problem – a BIG problem – against the West Virginia press, especially given the fact that the Racers don’t force many turnovers themselves; not a ‘ball pressure’ style of defense. West Virginia has been winning games by margin away from home all year. Murray St is 1-1 against tourney bound foes this year; West Virginia is 10-8, certainly a battle tested squad. They’ve been in the Big Dance every year; Murray State’s seniors are making their first trip. But most importantly, the matchups here work for the favorite, with big, physical senior studs Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles primed to wreak havoc on the Racers undersized backcourt duo, while Sagaba Konate and Esa Ahmad are primed to dominate the low post. Points worth laying. Take West Virginia |
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03-16-18 | Providence v. Texas A&M -2 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#868) Providence is anything but fresh as they travel to Charlotte to take on Texas A&M. The Friars truly went ‘balls to the wall’ last weekend to nail down their bid, playing three OT games in three days against Creighton, Xavier and Villanova. For a team that lacks depth, I’m expecting some hangover effects from that intense effort; especially given the deflating aspect of the OT loss in the Big East Tourney Championship Game. Ed Cooley has four key cogs on his roster, a quartet who all average between 30 and 32 minutes per game. But Kyron Cartwright played 40+ minutes in all three games last week. So did Rodney Bullock. Both Jalen Lindsey and Alpha Diallo went 40+ in two of the three games. I’m not expecting the Friars to be able to match their intensity from the Big East Tourney, and they’re likely to have a very difficult time finding offense against a seriously undervalued A&M squad that offers real ‘bet-on’ potential moving forward. Here’s what Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said about the Aggies just BEFORE Texas A&M pulled the outright upset over the Tigers on Auburn’s home floor: “This Texas A&M team was picked second or third [in the SEC]. Some people had them first….. They're big. They lead the SEC in rebounding and defense. It's great for our league that they're back and playing well. We know we're going to have our hands full on Wednesday." The Aggies were ranked as high as #5 in the country before the injury bug struck in January. They lost five straight games, then struggled to get everyone acclimated again once they got healthy. But things came together for Billy Kennedy’s squad down the stretch, notching wins over Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama and South Carolina, among others. They closed out the regular season with back-2-back road wins at Georgia and Vandy; proving once again that they can win away from home. But Texas A&M still hasn’t regained any sort of betting bandwagon – the type Providence has right now after three straight national TV covers last weekend. And after a one point loss in the rematch against ‘Bama – you remember Collin Sexton’s shot – in the SEC opener, the Aggies seem like a complete afterthought in the betting markets right now. Not for this bettor! Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M |
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03-15-18 | NC State v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#730) The Pirates have all the makings of a ‘bet-on’ team in the Big Dance this weekend. The Pirates bring four senior starters to the table, each of whom is making their third consecutive trip to the tourney. That quartet -- Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ismael Sanogo – has combined for more than 13,600 minutes, 5400 points and 3000 rebounds in their respective careers. They’ve been the most successful group of recruits in the modern history of the Pirates program. And they’ve never won an NCAA Tournament game. Seton Hall beat Villanova in the Big East Conference Tournament Final in 2016 to earn (at the time) a very rare tourney bid, but they lost to Gonzaga in their opener. Last year, it was a tight six point loss to Arkansas to open the Big Dance; a game that turned on a VERY controversial flagrant foul call in the final seconds of what was (at the time) a one point game. Seton Hall played more than their fair share of lethargic basketball this year; biding their time for another chance on college basketball’s biggest stage. I’m not a believer in the Pirates statistical profile that is not elite – this team has been waiting around all year, prepping for this week. I expect them to be tough as nails; a VERY tough out in this tournament, and potentially a bet on team moving forward. Kevin Keatts did a remarkable job in his first season as the Wolfpack’s head coach; taking a sub .500 squad from last year that was projected to finish #13 in the conference and turning them into an NCAA Tournament team. But this team doesn’t come close to matching the Pirates experience and they have one HUGE weakness likely to doom them here. The Wolfpack are not a good rebounding team, ranked #307 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Seton Hall ranks among the Top 30 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. That means we should expect plenty of second chance opportunities and easy putbacks for the Pirates, a difference maker in what is expected to be a tight game. I personally found a cheap price to back Seton Hall on the moneyline; and would recommend you do likewise with at least a portion of your wager! Take Seton Hall. |
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03-15-18 | South Dakota State v. Ohio State -7.5 | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Ohio State (#748) The betting markets have refused to accept Ohio State as a quality team for extended stretches this season. The Buckeyes aren’t here by accident. They beat Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue – the other three teams from the Big 10 that are going dancing this year. And they won eight games away from home, repeatedly proving to be the ‘tougher’ of the two teams in hostile environments. Look no further than their regular season finale win in OT at Indiana for a clear example. That’s a big issue for a team like South Dakota State; not known for physical play and not facing many physical teams in Summit League action. The Jackrabbits lost by 20 in their Big Dance opener last year to a fellow mid-major and lost the previous year to a very mediocre Maryland team; not a squad known for stepping up in class particularly well once March rolls around. South Dakota State runs a two man show – the low post stud, Mike Daum and the perimeter stud, David Jenkins. Ohio State has a low post stud with NBA upside in Keita Bates-Diop and multiple wings who bring it defensively – Chris Holtmann is a stellar defensive coach. I don’t anticipate the Jackrabbits getting many good looks in this one. With four double digit scorers, size edges at nearly every position, elite level defensive and rebounding numbers and solid free throw shooting, the Buckeyes are primed to survive and advance in a game I expect them to win by margin. Fade the ‘public’ underdog! Take Ohio State. |
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03-15-18 | Oklahoma +2 v. Rhode Island | 78-83 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma (#723) To say there’s no betting bandwagon supporting Oklahoma is something of an understatement right now. A team that was as high as #4 in the polls in December and January is now an underdog on a neutral floor to Rhode Island. This team was laying points to Kansas. They were road favorites at Alabama. Now they’re catching points from an inferior foe. How did that happen? Simple – the Sooners really struggled down the stretch, entering the Big Dance on a dismal 3-12 SU, 3-12 ATS run – there’s no bandwagon with that kind of track record! But make no mistake about it – the Big 12 was positively brutal this year, and the Sooners did not fare well in second looks against opposing defenses. Rhode Island has no second look. The fact that Oklahoma has only played once in the last two weeks certainly works in their favor, a team that was legitimately worn down by the end of the regular season. And the fact that the Sooners will have the best player on the floor in Trae Young certainly doesn’t hurt matters in a game that’s expected to be tight down the stretch. This was not a banner year in the A-10, to put it mildly, yet even against that lesser level of competition, Rhode Island was unable to dominate; just 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS in their last eight ballgames. They’ve been struggling from the free throw line, and their defensive numbers have taken a tumble in recent weeks; a clear sign of a team wearing down late in the campaign. But unlike the Sooners who got bounced early from the Big 12 Tourney, URI made a run to the A-10 Final; a grueling three day stretch that didn’t end until the hours before the selection show last Sunday. Don’t be shocked in the slightest if the Rams wear down late here against a fresher, more talented foe in the tourney tip-off on Thursday. Take Oklahoma. |
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03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse +2 | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#612) This was not a great year for West Coast basketball, as clearly evidenced by the fact that the second place team in the PAC-12 didn’t get into the Big Dance and the third place team just lost their ‘Play-In’ game to St Bonaventure last night. Yet Arizona State remains a popular wiseguy choice for Wednesday Night in Dayton; with the sharp $$ showing for the Sun Devils. I’m not buying that Arizona State is better than Syracuse, on any floor. The Sun Devils face a size disadvantage at every position. Against a man-to-man defense, it would be a problem. Against Jim Boeheim’s legendary ‘matchup zone’ defense, it’s a nightmare, because the Arizona State guards won’t be able to get clean looks from three point range. The results don’t lie. Arizona State has played one game against a similar defense this season, when they travelled to Washington. The Sun Devils lost SU and ATS in that contest, finishing with their single lowest point total of the season. And when we talk about late season collapses, the Sun Devils really stand out! Their ONLY win in the last MONTH came at home against bottom feeder Cal; just 1-5 SU in their last six ballgames. Syracuse was clearly gassed down the stretch – Jim Boeheim’s team lacks quality depth. But the Orange will have the best three players on the floor tonight in Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett; three guys who rarely leave the floor even for a minute. After the brutal, physical ACC schedule, that trio was clearly worn down. But now, after a full week off, that trio is likely to be as rested and ready as they’ve been in months. Wrong team favored……Take Syracuse. |
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03-14-18 | Nebraska +4 v. Mississippi State | 59-66 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#619) Nebraska was a legitimate ‘meal ticket’ for my clients and I for an extended stretch this season. We went 7-1 ATS backing the Cornhuskers in Big 10 action where they were successful in every role – at home, on the road, laying points and taking points. And yet here we are in March, and the Huskers are STILL something of an undervalued commodity. Nebraska won SU in Starkville in an exhibition game against Mississippi State back in October – they’ve played and won on this court against this team this year, even though that game isn’t going to show up in any databases because it was an ‘exhibition charity game’ for Hurricane Irma relief. That started a trend for Tim Miles squad – they’ve quite literally hung tough in almost every road game since; 8-1 ATS in their last nine on the highway. Nebraska is rested and ready. The Big 10 Tourney finished a week early; the Huskers weren’t expecting a Big Dance bid, and this team is primed to win a game or two (or three or four) in the NIT. Mississippi State was hoping for a Dance bid that never came. Their students are on spring break this week – don’t expect a particularly raucous home crowd this evening. Second leading scorer Nick Weatherspoon is out tonight – he hasn’t missed a game all year, and his absence is likely to be felt. Bulldogs guard Lamar Peters: “Nick going down is going to hurt. He brings a lot of energy, is a defensive guy and a great team player.” None of these are good signs for the home favorite……Take Nebraska. |
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03-13-18 | Northern Kentucky +8 v. Louisville | 58-66 | Push | 0 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Northern Kentucky (#547) The first round of the NIT offers some unique opportunities. Season long power ratings ensure that a team like Louisville will be significant home favorites over a team like Northern Kentucky – there is a talent differential here. But from a motivational standpoint, this is not a spot where we can expect much from the home team, while this road underdog is primed to bring their ‘A’ game. Louisville has had less than 48 hours to shake off the disappointment from not getting a bid to the Big Dance. Their students are on Spring Break, leaving the Yum Center every bit as lethargic as the Cardinals team is. It’s like not Louisville heads into this game feeling good about themselves --- they’ve lost five of their last seven overall; a crushing late season collapse. And Louisville certainly isn’t playing shutdown defense these days, bad news in this pointspread range. Northern Kentucky gets an easy travel situation compared to most NIT teams; needing only a 90 minute bus ride to get a chance to face a particularly motivating foe. Let’s not forget that Northern Kentucky has a pair of starters from Louisville; one of whom transferred out after last year. The Norse have proven their mettle in hostile road environments all year; with a strong track record on the highway and a 100% perfect ATS mark as underdogs of +5 or higher; hanging tough at Texas A&M and Vermont while winning outright at Oakland. Live dog here! Take Northern Kentucky. |
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03-11-18 | Kentucky +2 v. Tennessee | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#823) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. I don’t think the Vols can sweep the Wildcats in all three meetings. They’ll have the crowd support today, so crucial in these high energy ‘three games in three days’ settings. They have more talent – let’s not forget that Kentucky was a Top 5 team coming into the season while Tennessee was projected to finish #13 out of a 14 team conference. Yes, the Vols have exceeded all expectations, and yes, the Wildcats have, at times, been a major disappointment. But there’s no question that the team with elite talent is peaking at the right time, now 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven ballgames. And this quote from John Calipari stands out from after the first meeting between these two teams; a game that closed on a 47-28 Vols run-out in the second half. "They out-toughed us. They just threw us around. It was embarrassing. As soon as we had PJ (Washington) out of the game, we had no shot at winning because every one of their players at that point was tougher than our guys…They just got manhandled by men. We couldn't grab a rebound. We got shoved out of the way on post-ups…..And then the start of the second half. I mean, we were literally standing with cheerleaders on a bunch of shots. Shot went up, I got a guy standing next to the cheerleaders. It just got too physical. The bump and grind, we couldn't deal with it.” I’m not expecting a repeat effort in a game that the Wildcats are primed to win in SU fashion. Take Kentucky. |
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03-10-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia -3.5 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Virginia (#540) There was nothing fraudulent about Virginia’s 61-49 win over North Carolina when these two teams met back in January. The Tar Heels offense was stuck in the mud all game against Tony Bennett’s Pack-Line defense; one of only three games all season in which North Carolina didn’t reach at least 69 points; held more than 33 points below their season average on just 33% shooting from the floor. North Carolina committed 19 turnovers while making only 16 shots, a truly ugly ratio. This isn’t new or different. In the previous meeting back in 2017, Virginia won 53-43, once again holding the Tar Heels to their lowest point total of the season by a wide margin; a 35% shooting effort from Roy Williams squad. So what should we expect will be different today? Absolutely nothing! The Tar Heels offense was stuck in the mud down the stretch last night against Duke, already showing signs of fatigue in this grueling tournament setting. They closed out the game 0-8 from the floor with six turnovers over the last 5+ minutes of action. Point guard Joel Berry is in a nasty shooting slump, just 12-45 from the floor in his last four ballgames; now playing for the fourth time in four nights. These are clearly not positive signs against the best defense in the country. No, Virginia isn’t pretty to watch offensively, although they have been an excellent three point shooting team this season, hitting just shy of 39% from beyond the arc. But the Cavaliers defense is truly a thing of beauty – not just the best defense in the country this year, but the best defense of the last DECADE based on a points per possession basis. The betting markets have undervalued Virginia from Day 1 this season. They’re 11-1 ATS as short favorites of -7 or less, absolutely dominating ATS in this role. Take Virginia. |
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03-10-18 | San Diego State -4.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take San Diego State (#533) There are three basic elements in play here. First, New Mexico is a great bet against teams that turn the ball over. Against teams that don’t turn it over and force the Lobos into a halfcourt game, New Mexico has repeatedly and routinely struggled. San Diego State has committed less than ten turnovers per game over their last five contests and the Lobos pressure created only 12 takeaways against the Aztecs in Albuquerque last month. For New Mexico to win tonight, they’ll have to execute their half court sets against a quality defense. I’m not convinced that’s going to go well. Second, San Diego State is a ‘mission’ team right now, ‘bet-on’ all the way. Aztecs senior leader Malik Pope was briefly suspended in late February after being accused of taking $1400 from an agent, missing one game before being reinstated. When he came back, it gave the team a major jolt of positive energy – the quotes coming out of this locker room were uniformly positive. San Diego State is 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS since; all four wins and covers coming against Mountain West heavyweights, not bottom feeders. Third, New Mexico is really up against it when it comes to the scheduling spot here. The Lobos didn’t clear out of the Thomas & Mack last night until after midnight Pacific Time. This afternoon local tip – thanks to the TV network demands – won’t help their tired legs as this game wears on. Only one Aztecs starter – Devin Watson – played more than 29 minutes last night, and all five starters finished in double digits. I expect San Diego State to be a notch or two ‘fresher’ this evening; a difference maker in this pointspread range. Points worth laying! Big Ticket: Take San Diego State. |
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03-09-18 | Utah State v. New Mexico -3.5 | 68-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Take New Mexico (#876) New Mexico has four legitimate edges tonight. First, the Lobos pressure is primed to create turnovers in bunches against a Utah State team that doesn’t handle the basketball particularly well. For the season, away from home, Utah State has an 0.82 assist-to-turnover ratio. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, Utah State shot 51% from the floor and 50% (10 of 20) from three point range. The two teams were even on the boards. Yet New Mexico won by 15, running the Aggies out of the gym, thanks to a whopping 23 Aggies turnovers. Utah State’s tired legs off last night’s bruising, down-to-the-wire battle with Boise won’t help matters for their ability to avoid turnovers tonight. Secondly, New Mexico is the best three point shooting team in the conference; taking and making more shots from downtown than anyone else in the Mountain West. Anthony Mathis, Antino Jackson, Makuach Maluach, Chris McNeal, Try Simons and Dane Kuiper are all legit gunslingers from downtown; bad news for a Utah State defense that has not been shutting teams down from beyond the arc. Utah State won last night because of a 14-25 shooting effort from three point range. With tired legs today, I expect the Aggies to regress to the mean (if not worse), a 34% three point shooting team for the season. Third, the Lobos travel well to the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Utah State does not. Even though it’s being played on a neutral court here in Vegas, New Mexico has a legitimate crowd edge in this tourney on this floor. And lastly, the Lobos have far more quality depth than the Aggies, a huge difference maker in these short-turnaround tourney games. Utah State goes only eight deep. Sam Merril and Koby McEwen played 77 of a possible 80 minutes last night. The Lobos go nine deep and nobody on the team played more than 31 minutes last night. In essence, Tim Duryea was putting all his chips on the table to get a single win last night, while Paul Weir was playing the long game, keeping New Mexico relatively fresh for an extended tourney run. Lay the points! Take New Mexico. |
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03-09-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +2 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech (#872) The Red Raiders gave us a little gut punch last night with poor execution in the final minute costing us a Big Ticket wager. That being said, my basic premise of Texas Tech as a ‘bet-on’ team primed to make a run in this tourney was spot on. Let me start with an extended excerpt from yesterdays’ write-up: “With all hands back on deck, Texas Tech is an undervalued commodity right now; a team primed to make a deep run in the Big 12 Tourney this weekend. Let’s not forget that the Red Raiders were 22-4 & ranked in the Top 10 when the injury bug struck. Senior point guard Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury and missed five games. Senior forward Zack Smith also missed extended time. Senior wing Justin Gray missed a pair of games during that skid as well. “All of those guys are healthy now. Evans looked 100%, scoring 23 points in 26 minutes in a much needed win over TCU last Saturday, snapping their skid. Gray and Smith combined for 39 minutes of action, and both guys have been practicing with their teammates all week. That gives the Red Raiders their full depth, with Chris Beard’s rotation going ten deep these days, optimal for conference tourney success. “How did unheralded Texas Tech rise up into the Top 10? Defense stands out. The Red Raiders are one of only two teams in the country who rank in the Top 15 in both effective field goal percentage allowed on defense and turnovers forced on defense. When you are pressuring opposing shooters AND forcing turnovers in bunches, you win games and cover pointspreads – period. And this is a STRONG bet-on quote from Chris Beard, just signed to a long term extension in Lubbock: “Anything you want in life, kind of like basketball, I think you have to have a plan for what you want. So we’d like to have a good March. Our plan is pretty specific. And one of the parts of our plan is we want to try to have more fun than anybody in college basketball this month. So, led by our seniors, we’re going to try to enjoy every moment. That’s what March is. I’m glad our guys are having fun.” West Virginia had a relatively easy ride against Baylor yesterday, forcing 20 Bears turnovers. That’s not likely to happen today against the Red Raiders. When Texas Tech beat West Virginia in January, they handled the Mountaineer ball pressure just fine, committing only 12 turnovers. Even with the injuries, West Virginia only forced 13 turnovers in the rematch in Morgantown. When Bob Huggins’ squad isn’t forcing turnovers in bunches, they’re struggling to win. It’s surely worth noting that three of the last four meetings between these squads were decided by a single point or in OT. Take the points; expect the outright upset. Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech |
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03-09-18 | St. Louis +8 v. Davidson | 60-78 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#835) The concept here is simple – it’s really hard to build margins against ‘slow everything to a crawl’ team like the St Louis Billikens. Travis Ford’s squad ha a grand total of ONE loss by more than eight points since the calendar turned to 2018; a span of 17 games. They’ve been true, under-the-radar ATS machines; 16-6 against the spread in their last 22 ballgames and still there’s no Billikens bandwagon building; a team that continues to offer legitimate ‘value’ for their backers. Davidson never sniffed a pointspread cover in the first meeting between these two teams, a 54-51 grinder that the Wildcats never led by more than the three point final margin of victory. And St Louis has legitimate momentum; rallying back from a big halftime deficit to knock off George Washington yesterday; a ‘bet-on’ squad as underdogs against a Davidson team that’s been sitting around all week. Live, feisty dog here! Take St Louis. |
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03-09-18 | Providence +8 v. Xavier | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Providence (#857) Providence returned every starter from last year’s NCAA Tournament squad. As we saw yesterday in their impressive SU win over Creighton, the Friars are a team that is capable of ‘flipping the switch’ in the Big East tourney after a sluggish finish to the regular season. The Friars won yesterday for one reason and one reason only – heart. They wanted it more. Providence didn’t shoot well, hitting under 37% from the floor; just 5-22 from three point range. They missed a dozen free throws, connecting at only a 61% clip. Yet they won outright as an underdog thanks to tenacious defense and fierce rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass. It was clearly a ‘we can compete with anybody’ type of performance, surviving and advancing off that putrid shooting effort. Providence has certainly shown they can compete with Xavier: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in the three meetings between these two squads over the last two seasons. And, quite frankly, this Xavier team is a notch or two overrated – they’re not the third best team in the country, where the rankings have them as of today. The Musketeers defensive intensity has been noticeably lacking down the stretch: 48% shooting allowed in their last five contests. Nor is this their ATS sweet spot. Xavier has been an excellent pointspread team for most of the season, but as bigger favorites -- say -7.5 to -14.5 – Chris Mack’s squad is 0-5 ATS, unable to get the requisite stops they need to cover inflated numbers. Expect a tight one! Take Providence |
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03-08-18 | Notre Dame v. Duke UNDER 144 | 70-88 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Duke – Notre Dame UNDER (#665-666) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. Coach K spent a good portion of the season making adjustments to the Blue Devils defense. He finally settled on a 2-3 zone when Marvin Bagley Jr got hurt. Since going exclusively to that 2-3 zone, Duke’s games haven’t just been cashing Under bets – they’ve been cashing Under bets by HUGE margins. The results do not lie. Duke has played their last six games using this zone defense almost exclusively. Those games have gone 6-0 to the Under, by HUGE margins: 37 points, 22, 16.5, 39, 26.5 and 21 points – none of them were even close. Facing a Notre Dame team with tired legs – don’t expect those Irish jumpers to be falling like rain tonight – let’s ride this Under-the-Radar Under trend one more time! Take the Under. |
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03-08-18 | Texas v. Texas Tech -6.5 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech (#706) With all hands back on deck, Texas Tech is an undervalued commodity right now; a team primed to make a deep run in the Big 12 Tourney this weekend. Let’s not forget that the Red Raiders were 22-4 & ranked in the Top 10 when the injury bug struck. Senior point guard Keenan Evans suffered a toe injury and missed five games. Senior forward Zack Smith also missed extended time. Senior wing Justin Gray missed a pair of games during that skid as well. All three of those guys are healthy now. Evans looked 100%, scoring 23 points in 26 minutes in a much needed win over TCU last Saturday, snapping their skid. Gray and Smith combined for 39 minutes of action, and both guys have been practicing with their teammates all week. That gives the Red Raiders their full depth, with Chris Beard’s rotation going ten deep these days, optimal for conference tourney success. How did unheralded Texas Tech rise up into the Top 10? Defense stands out. The Red Raiders are one of only two teams in the country who rank in the Top 15 in both effective field goal percentage allowed on defense and turnovers forced on defense. When you are pressuring opposing shooters AND forcing turnovers in bunches, you win games and cover pointspreads – period. That’s bad news for Texas tonight, on multiple fronts. The Longhorns aren’t expected to have their low post stud, Mohammed Bamba, available, as he’s dealing with a toe injury. Bamba is a difference maker: 13.0 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game. That leaves Shaka Smart with precious few options in the low post tonight for a team that is basically down to a six man rotation – depth is a HUGE concern for the Longhorns both tonight and moving forward. And the Longhorns weren’t exactly lighting it up away from home eve BEFORE the Bamba injury. They lost by double digits at Kansas, Kansas State, TCU and West Virginia down the stretch. And this is a STRONG bet-on quote from Chris Beard, just signed to a long term extension in Lubbock: “Anything you want in life, kind of like basketball, I think you have to have a plan for what you want. So we’d like to have a good March. Our plan is pretty specific. And one of the parts of our plan is we want to try to have more fun than anybody in college basketball this month. So, led by our seniors, we’re going to try to enjoy every moment. That’s what March is. I’m glad our guys are having fun.” Take the senior laden team tonight against the squad with no senior contributors. Big Ticket: Take Texas Tech |
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03-08-18 | UNLV v. Nevada -5 | 74-79 | Push | 0 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#718) (abbreviated write-up for the early start game) There’s plenty to dislike about UNLV right now; a team that has been an ATS disaster area for months: 5-16-1 against the spread in their last 22 ballgames. The Rebels closed out the regular season by losing five straight games, leading head coach Marvin Menzies to question his team’s confidence level moving forward. Four of those games were ugly double digit blowouts. Disturbingly, at no point in the second half of ANY of those blowout losses did the Rebels put together a serious run – they just tucked in their tails and quit. The Rebels needed OT yesterday just to get out of the first round as double digit favorites against Air Force, and four of their five starters played 36+ minutes in that game – the Rebels won’t be fully fresh today for this early start game. Nevada will be, and the Wolfpack aren’t likely to take it easy against their in-state rivals. Nevada just beat UNLV 101-75 right here at the Thomas & Mack last week. They won on this floor 94-58 last year as well. Nevada is the class of this conference, primed to show it again today! Take Nevada. |
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03-08-18 | Providence +4 v. Creighton | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Providence (#695) (abbreviated write-up for the early start game) To say that Creighton isn’t playing any defense on away from home is something of an understatement. The results don’t lie. In Big East road games, the Bluejays allowed 93 to Butler, 75 to offensively challenged DePaul, 98 to Villanova, 85 to Providence, 92 to Xavier, 90 to Seton Hall and 85 to Marquette just last weekend. For the season, Creighton has allowed 49% shooting on the highway, 42% from three point range. For all the Bluejays offensive firepower – and they have plenty – they’ve been a losing ATS team all season because they’re not getting stops! Providence returned every starter from last year’s NCAA Tournament squad; a team that is capable of ‘flipping the switch’ in the Big East tourney after a sluggish finish to the regular season. They beat Creighton by 14 when these teams last met in January; dominating the glass while shooting a remarkable 62.5% from two point range in that contest, getting one good look after the next. After getting bounced by Creighton in the first round of this tourney last year, don’t be shocked in the slightest if the Friars get their revenge today! Take Providence! |
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03-07-18 | Ole Miss v. South Carolina -2.5 | 84-85 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Take South Carolina (#624) To say that it’s been a rough season for Ole Miss is something of an understatement. Coming off three consecutive 20+ win seasons, Andy Kennedy felt good about his chances in the SEC, and the Rebels got off to a disappointing, but not disastrous 10-7 start. Then the bottom dropped out. The Rebels have lost three straight and 12 of their last 14. Andy Kennedy quit/resigned/got fired, leaving interim head coach Tony Madlock in charge of the program. It has not gone well, as clearly evidenced by Mississippi’s current 1-10 SU and ATS run under his tutelage. I looked hard, and did not find any ‘let’s pull together and go on an SEC tourney run to salvage our season’ quotes emanating from the Rebels locker room. This should be Madlock’s last game as the Ole Miss head coach. South Carolina went to the Final 4 last year. Sure, they suffered major graduation losses, but that’s the type of upside Frank Martin’s team brings to the table. With veteran leaders Chris Silva, Wesley Myers, Frank Booker and Hassani Gravett – all juniors and seniors – leading the way, the Gamecocks covered six straight down the stretch following an ugly midseason slump. Ole Miss won the only regular season meeting between these teams, back when Kennedy was still in charge in large part due to a big edge at the free throw line. But the Rebels aren’t getting to the line these days, a beaten down team that is quite comfortable settling for perimeter jumpers. That’s not likely to be a winning strategy against an elite defensive foe like the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina. |
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03-07-18 | Oregon State -2 v. Washington | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Oregon State (#601) I watched both meetings between these two schools this year; each of which was extremely tight – one going into double OT, the other in doubt into the final minute of regulation. After watching both of those games it’s clear to me that the Beavers have the edge in tonight’s rubber match. The Beavers have two significant things working in their favor. First, experience matters in these settings. Oregon State is led by juniors and seniors ; a team that has played effectively in this venue before – the Beavers have covered their PAC-12 Tourney opener in each of the last two seasons, including a SU win and cover over Arizona State. Washington cannot match their experience, with true frosh Jaylen Nowell their leading scorer. Second, Oregon State can hit shots against a zone defense. Washington’s first year head coach Mike Hopkins created all kinds of trouble in his first go-round against PAC-12 foes after installing the legendary Jim Boeheim 2-3 matchup zone with the Huskies. But the better jump shooting teams are shooting right over that zone right now, as clearly evidenced by the fact that Washington has allowed 38% shooting from beyond the arc in their last five games; a stretch that included a Cal brick-fest against them. Oregon State went 5-27 last year. A win tonight gives them a winning record in 2018. Coming off a huge blowout away from home at Wazzou last weekend, look for the Beavers to keep that momentum rolling tonight. It’s Tinkle Time! Take Oregon State. |
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03-07-18 | Fordham v. George Washington OVER 130.5 | 72-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take George Washington – Fordham OVER (#607-608) The early $$ came pouring in on the Under for this matchup and it’s easy to understand why. George Washington’s season long stats don’t mean a whole lot. The Colonials changed their stripes completely at the start of February, when frosh Justin Mazzula took over the starting point guard role. George Washington was not a ‘push the pace’ team in November, December or January; leaving the Colonials with some very misleading season long numbers. Since Mazzula took over at the point, they’ve hung 78+ in five of their last eight games, playing at a much faster pace. Remember -- GW didn’t score more than 73 in a 17 game early season stretch; an inept offense that couldn’t do much of anything. That was then, this is now. As is often the case when a team makes a mid-season morph, the betting markets have struggled to keep up with the Colonials changing pac. They’ve been an Over team of late: 9-5 to the Over in their last 14 ballgames. Their last Under came against the same Fordham team they’ll face today, and the Under came entirely due to Fordham’s poor offense: 33% shooting for the game, including a dismal 5-26 from three point range. It’s certainly not like GW is an elite defensive team – no reason to expect another miserable shooting effort from the underdog here. And with Fordham letting go of the rope completely on defense of late – allowing a truly ugly 57% shooting in their last five games – there’s ample reason to believe that this game gets Over the total; a relatively high scoring affair. It’s also worth noting that both of these teams connect from the free throw line at a 70%+ clip. Take the Over. |
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03-06-18 | Wake Forest +4.5 v. Syracuse | 64-73 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Wake Forest (#521) Betting on conference tournaments requires a ‘reset’ from what happened in the regular season. Yes, Syracuse at 19-12 was better than Wake Forest at 11-19 this season. Syracuse was better in the ACC as well, 8-10 vs. 4-14. But all of that is baked into this pointspread, for sure. What’s not baked into the pointspread is this quote from Demon Deacons junior guard Keyshawn Woods: “Now you press that reset button, see who wins the games. I know people are saying this is an unlikely win or an unlikely run to win this tournament, but I feel like it’s very likely. We can do whatever we want to do. It’s just up to us at the end of the day.” Quotes like that are KEY from underdogs in conference tourney action. It’s not like Wake doesn’t have talent – they were projected to finish one spot higher than the Orange prior to the season. And it’s not like Wake couldn’t hang with the Orange during the regular season -- both meetings were tight; each team winning and covering at home. The ‘reset’ aspect of the ACC Tourney gives a team like Wake additional energy – and expected improvement – compared to the level they played out down the stretch of the disappointing regular season. Here’s another thing that’s not baked into this pointspread – the Orange lack of depth; a huge factor at this late stage of the campaign. Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett are three excellent talents for Jim Boeheim. The problem is, Boeheim doesn’t have anybody else! That trio combined to average just shy of 50 ppg. The rest of the team scored just 15 points per game. That matters in particular because of the minutes Battle, Howard and Brissett have played – they basically never leave the floor. Too many minutes equates to tired legs on jump shots. None of the Orange Big 3 have shot better than 40% from the floor in ACC play. Wake has the better depth, and they’re fresher as well, having played only once in the last ten days. IF the Orange win, don’t expect it to come by any sort of margin. Live Dog here! Take Wake. |
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03-04-18 | Michigan +4.5 v. Purdue | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#837) The results do not lie. The Boilermakers are highly regarded in the betting markets; favored in eleven of their last twelve games dating back to late January. Matt Painter’s squad has covered a grand total of two of those 12 pointspreads, just 1-9-2 ATS or 1-10-1 (depending on your pointspread) in their last dozen tries laying points. Purdue certainly hasn’t had an easy time in recent meetings against Michigan. The Wolverines lost by four at Purdue as 11 point underdogs earlier this season; covering the spread wire-2-wire despite a ridiculous 62% shooting effort from the Boilermakers; 55% from three point range. They also lost at home by a single point to Purdue; another game where Purdue was on fire from three point range: 12-21 from beyond the arc. Last year, the Wolverines won both meetings SU and ATS. In fact, Matt Painter has covered only one pointspread in his last six matchups against John Beilein. And Purdue’s mini-winning streak – five straight wins, despite only one pointspread cover – has come against the weakest competition the Big 10 has to offer: Penn State twice, Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois. Michigan, on the other hand, has been consistently stepping up against quality foes down the stretch during their current eight game winning streak; yesterday’s victory over Michigan State only the latest example. There aren’t many better tournament coaches than Beilein; a guy I want my money ON in short turnaround situations. Check out these numbers for an under-the-radar impressive track record: Beilein’s Wolverines are 24-8 SU, 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 postseason tournament games dating back to 2013. That’s a track record worthy of support for a Michigan squad playing their best basketball of the season right now! Take Michigan. |
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03-03-18 | Penn State +8 v. Purdue | 70-78 | Push | 0 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Penn State (#637) (abbreviated write-up for this early tip-off) Purdue has been an overvalued commodity for months; consistent moneylosers for their backers. The results do not lie. The Boilermakers are highly regarded in the betting markets; favored in ten of their last eleven games dating back to late January. Matt Painter’s squad has covered a grand total of ONE of those pointspreads, just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 tries laying points. Their only win by more than seven points since the beginning of February came against a Minnesota team that had basically quit. Purdue certainly hasn’t had an easy time in recent meetings against Penn State. The Nittany Lions took Purdue to the wire in West Lafayette two weeks ago; a four point loss. They took Purdue into OT in the previous meeting, also a four point Boilermakers victory. Even against a tired Rutgers team yesterday, Purdue couldn’t pull away and win by margin. Facing a hot, ‘refuse to lose’ Penn State squad that is playing for a Big Dance bid, I’m not expecting the Boilermakers to be able to extend the margin today either….if they win the game at all. And it’s also worth noting Penn State’s 7-1 ATS mark in their last eight Big 10 Tourney games under head coach Pat Chambers– they take this tournament VERY seriously. Take Penn State. |
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03-03-18 | Creighton v. Marquette -2 | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Marquette (#528) (abbreviated write-up for this early tip-off) To say that Creighton isn’t playing any defense on the road is something of an understatement. The results don’t lie. In Big East road games, the Bluejays have allowed 93 to Butler, 75 to offensively challenged DePaul, 98 to Villanova, 85 to Providence, 92 to Xavier and 90 to Seton Hall. For the season, Creighton has allowed 49% shooting on the highway, 41% from three point range. No surprise, then, that Marquette was able to hang 90 on them in the first meeting, picking up right where they left off last year when the Golden Eagles went 2-0 SU and ATS against the Bluejays, scoring 102 and 91 in the process. This dog flat out cannot get stops, bad news in this pointspread range against a quality foe at home on Senior Day. Take Marquette. |
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03-03-18 | Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 135.5 | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Michigan State OVER (#635-636) (abbreviated write-up for this early tip-off) The concept here is simple. Most teams struggle offensively against Michigan State’s stout defense; a ‘D’ that has held opponents to 64 points per game on 36.4% shooting for the full season. The Spartans rank in the Top 10 nationally in numerous key statistical categories, and there’s rarely upward pressure on their totals – they’ve cashed six consecutive Unders; coming into this game off back-2-back grinders against Wisconsin. But John Beilein’s Wolverines have solved the Spartans defense. Michigan hung 82 on Sparty in East Lansing earlier this season despite a modest 42% shooting effort, making only six three pointers. Michigan hung 86 on Sparty in their final meeting last year; consistently creating good shot opportunities against an elite defense. This game is going to be a flat out war, creating the opportunity for late scramble points as well. And Madison Square Garden certainly isn’t a difficult venue for perimeter shooters, especially considering that both teams played on this floor yesterday. Expect a relatively high scoring affair that gets up and Over the total. Take the Over. |
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03-01-18 | Oregon State v. Washington -3 | 77-79 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#554) The Washington Huskies have been a meal ticket for my clients and I for the better part of the last two months. And, quite frankly, the betting markets have been VERY reluctant to make significant upwards adjustments for the Huskies; a team that continues to play above market projections on a consistent basis. The Huskies certainly remember what happened in the first meeting between these two squads. The Beavers trailed throughout, down 67-54 at the eight minute timeout in the second half. Then Tres Tinkle and Stephen Thompson Jr started draining three’s, five of them in a row, sending the crowd into a frenzy and sending the game into overtime. Thompson’s three pointer with a second left on the clock in double OT was the game winner for Oregon State. It’s a loss the Huskies haven’t forgotten….. Oregon State’s next road win will be their first one of the season. They are 0-fer the season on the highway as single digit underdogs, their only two ATS covers coming as double digit dogs back in early January at Arizona and Arizona State. With a 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS mark in their last ten games, it’s certainly not like the Beavers are coming in to this road tilt with a boatload of momentum. Oregon State is coming in off a win – they upset Arizona State at home last weekend. Dating back to December, the Beavers are 1-5 SU & ATS off a victory, consistently unable to string strong performances together. My clients & I cashed an easy blowout supporting the Huskies at Cal in their last game, a 17 point wire-2-wire victory as three point favorites. No surprise here if tonight’s game, too, is a relatively comfortable victory for the home chalk. Take Washington. |
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03-01-18 | Northwestern v. Penn State -5.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Penn State (#560) Northwestern’s season ends today. The Wildcats have limped to the finish line; a major disappointment following last year’s 24 win campaign that ended their NCAA Tourney drought; the first time in the history of the program that Northwestern had won more than 20 games. That was then; this is now. The Wildcats head to Madison Square Garden in the midst of a six game losing streak. Three of those losses came as favorites; two more came as short underdogs – Northwestern hasn’t even been able to beat weaklings of late. Northwestern’s injury bug has been biting of late. Second leading scorer and rebounder Vic Law just suffered a season ender; key backcourt reserve Jordan Ash is out too. Senior big man Gavin Skelly is questionable at best and senior point guard Bryant McIntosh is dealing with a sore shoulder. This is NOT a healthy team heading to New York. Penn State dominated the first meeting between these two teams; a 78-63 home victory. The Nittany Lions were in control of the second meeting for about 29 minutes despite playing without starter Josh Reaves, but they went the final 11 minutes without scoring a single basket; outscored 19-6 during crunch time. It’s a loss Penn State hasn’t forgotten…. This is Penn State’s best team of the Pat Chambers era, and they’ve got a real chip on their shoulder after losing three straight ‘step up in class’ games to close out the regular season. From all indications, Nittany Lions star big man Mike Watkins will be healthy enough to suit up. And Penn State’s best player, Tony Carr – the leading scorer in the Big 10 this season – scored only half his average in the two games against NW, hitting only 7 of his 23 shot attempts. Carr has averaged more than 21 ppg since his last matchup against the Wildcats; a potential difference maker today. Penn State takes the Big 10 tourney seriously. They won their opener here last year, covering as chalk. They covered as underdogs in their 2016 game and went 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS while making the quarterfinals in 2015; riding a 5-0 ATS run in the Big 10 tourney into Thursday. Last, but not least, Northwestern has NOT been a good underdog at any point this season, unable to step up on a consistent basis. As dogs of +3 or higher, the Wildcats have been true money burners: 2-8 ATS in ten tries. That’s an under-the-radar angle worth riding here in a game that has ‘double digit win’ written all over it! Big Ticket: Take Penn State. |
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02-28-18 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -9 | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#724) I’ve got ‘bet-on’ and ‘bet-against’ elements in play for this one. Let me start with the ‘bet-against’ piece of the equation. It’s been a long, ugly season for Ole Miss, to put it mildly. The players tuned out head coach Andy Kennedy early, and he left mid-season after 11 years with the program. The Rebels got a brief spark under interim head coach Tony Madlock, but it didn’t last – they trailed by 20 in the first half at home against Tennessee last weekend – their eight point defeat in that game was a VERY misleading final score. I’m not expecting ‘A+’ level effort in Lexington tonight in their final true road game of the season. And the Rebels don’t match up well with the Wildcats anyway. Ole Miss is an awful offensive team, consistently settling for poor shots. They’ve shot under 40% from the floor away from home this season, and have connected on a lower percentage of three pointers than any team in the SEC. That’s particularly bad news against Kentucky, because the Wildcats have the #1 three point shooting defense in the conference. When the Wildcats go on a run tonight, Ole Miss is going to have a very hard time shooting themselves back into the game. I’ve got plenty of ‘bet-on’ sentiments about Kentucky right now. The Wildcats have national championship caliber talent, but the chemistry hasn’t been there for most of the season. That’s changed of late – Kentucky enters tonight on a 3-0 SU and ATS run, beating quality foes Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri all by double digit margins. Coach John Calipari, talking about the significant improvement here in February: “You see I’m getting my second wind. You see me, I’m whistling and skipping in there (to practice). But I was dragging about three weeks ago. I’m not fighting guys every day. I’m enjoying walking into practice.” Don’t expect the Wildcats to take their foot off the gas pedal here…. Take Kentucky |
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02-28-18 | Illinois +1 v. Iowa | 87-96 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#761) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. The last time Iowa won a game away from home came back on January 11th. They rallied from 20 points down to beat Illinois in OT, in large part due to a HUGE edge at the free throw line: 40 attempts for the Hawkeyes, 14 for the Illini. For the season, the Illini was the best team in the Big 10 at forcing turnovers; creating 17 takeaways per game in conference play. I’m not expecting the free throw disparity from the first meeting to carry over to the rematch. Illinois just won a true road game, smacking Rutgers in a game they controlled from start to finish, a real confidence boost for a team that won six straight to open the season – they’re not hopeless – but suffered through an eight game skid at the start of Big 10 play. Iowa head coach Fran McCaffrey knows what’s coming: “I was impressed with Illinois. I mean that sincerely. I thought they were ready to play. They compete as well as any team on our schedule. Brad’s got them playing hard. They share the ball. They play with a lot of guys. They play with a lot of energy.” Illinois is flat out the better of these two teams, based on my eye test. And if you do nothing but bet on underdogs who opened as favorites in conference tournament play, you’re betting into a very positive expectation subset. Iowa got their win in their regular season finale. The last time the Hawkeyes covered a spread in the game following a SU win? Over Christmas break! Take Illinois. |
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02-27-18 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -3.5 | 64-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Baylor (#540) Baylor gave Oklahoma everything the Sooners could handle in the first meeting between these two teams. The Bears led by three with under a minute to play, but the Sooners scored the final five points of the game. Frosh phenom Trae Young was on fire in that game: 44 points and nine assists; including six made three pointers and 16 of 19 free throws. Things have changed dramatically for both teams since that first meeting. Oklahoma went south, losing six straight before their win over Kansas State at home last weekend. Baylor responded with five straight wins, including outright upsets against Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma State. But the Bears are coming off back-2-back losses in their last two contests. So we’ve got a struggling team off a win and a quality team, playing with revenge, off back-2-back losses. It’s senior night in Waco as well, a big deal considering that their four leading scorers – the stars of the team -- are all seniors, most notably Jo Lual-Acuil and Manu Lecomte. This is a Grade ‘A’ Baylor spot, plain and simple. Oklahoma hung 98 on Baylor in that first meeting. The Bears defense has improved by leaps and bounds since that ballgame; a defense that has been dominant in Waco all year – 40% shooting allowed for the full season. Oklahoma has a grand total of one win all season when they didn’t reach 80 points. Baylor has allowed more than 71 points in regulation only once in conference play. Cheap price to lay with the better team, at home, in a max focus spot. Take Baylor. |
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02-27-18 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina OVER 151.5 | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Miami – North Carolina OVER (#543-544) Here’s the quote from Roy Williams, talking about what North Carolina wants to do in terms of upping their tempo down the stretch of the campaign: We do it every single day and sometimes more than once. I want us to get used to pushing the pace. I'm a little mad at myself. At the beginning of the season, we played with a 15-second shot clock. And I told them I didn't want bad shots. So they had to work exceptionally well to get good shots. We've gotten away from that, so we may try to go back to that a little bit this week." The Tar Heels have only played one game since that quote. They hung 78 on Syracuse in that contest – at the Carrier Dome – at the game cashed every Over bet. They’ve been off since last Wednesday, concentrating on nothing but practice time. It’s surely worth noting the last time they played Miami here in Chapel Hill, UNC hung 96 on the Hurricanes and the game flew Over the total. The betting markets tend to think of Miami as a slower paced team prone to Unders. But the ‘Canes have been more than willing to play uptempo basketball – 11 of their last 14 ACC games have seen the loser get into the 70’s, cashing ten Over tickets in those 14 contests. From a pure pace standpoint, Miami’s offense has been much faster this year than in any recent season, averaging nearly two fewer seconds per shot than last year in ACC play. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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02-25-18 | UNLV v. New Mexico -3 | 90-91 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Take New Mexico (#822) There’s plenty to dislike about UNLV right now. In back-2-back ‘statement’ games over the past week, UNLV has lost in non-competitive fashion each time. We’re not talking about games where the Rebels were outclassed talent wise – they were +4.5 as San Diego State (a 94-56 road loss) and -2 vs. Fresno State (a 77-64 home defeat). Even more disturbingly, at no point in the second half of either blowout loss did the Rebels put together anything resembling a run – they just tucked in their tails and quit, both times. UNLV stunk up the joint in both contests. Against San Diego State the Rebels were -12 on the boards and committed 18 turnovers. They had 17 more turnovers against Fresno, while shooting under 30% from the floor. Let’s not forget that the Rebels shot 48% from the floor and avoided turnovers in bunches (only 12) in their first meeting against New Mexico. They still lost SU and ATS as home chalk against the Lobos. New Mexico takes and makes more 3-pointers than any team in the Mountain West. UNLV, on the ranks dead last in the conference in made 3’s. The Lobos hit ten trifectas in the first meeting, while the Rebels hit only two. This is a legitimate problem for the Rebels on both ends of the floor, especially in a VERY hostile road environment. I don’t like the quotes coming out of the UNLV locker room either – every player quote I could find talked about winning in March, and stepping up for the conference tournament. They seem to be getting their direction from Coach Menzies: “When you're going through a tough time like this, you have to step back and get clear vision and not let the emotion of the loss take you to a deep place where you can't recover….I typically have our teams playing their best basketball when that tournament gets here. That's like a whole different season when the tournament starts. I think they'll be ready to play in March for sure.” It’s not March yet, coach! Take New Mexico |
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02-24-18 | Gonzaga v. BYU +5 | 79-65 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Take BYU (#660) At the start of WCC play, Gonzaga was ranked #19 in the country. Since that time, the Zags have faced two teams that were capable of playing a competitive game against them – BYU and St Mary’s. The Zags split their two meetings with the Gaels. They won, but didn’t cover in a competitive matchup against the Cougars. And yet somehow, that has propelled the Zags to #6 in the country, largely because the vast majority of the other top teams play in more competitive conferences, with teams that are capable of beating them. Gonzaga’s rise in the polls and the subsequent betting market perception of the Zags is based on flawed data, plain and simple. Right now, the Zags are an overvalued commodity, as clearly evidenced by their 2-10 ATS mark in their last dozen games. BYU was tied at 59-59 with Gonzaga in the first meeting before a late Zags run allowed Gonzaga to win, although they never really sniffed a pointspread cover in that contest. BYU’s leading scorer Elijah Bryant scored only four points on 1-11 shooting, while the Cougs hit only 3-20 from beyond the arc and they STILL covered! The Cougars also hung tough with St Mary’s when the Gaels came to visit, taking them into overtime before coming up short. BYU has really stepped up their defensive effort of late. They’re getting the job done at the charity stripe. Bryant’s top two teammates, Yoeli Childs and TJ Haws, are both in excellent current form; a trio that averages more than 47 points per game, giving their opponents problems from both inside and outside the arc. And it’s surely worth noting BYU’s success in close games, including a pair of OT wins in the last two weeks. Live dog here! Take BYU. |
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02-24-18 | Washington -2.5 v. California | 68-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#595) The Huskies didn’t do anything particularly special to beat the Bears by double digits in the first meeting between these two teams. In fact, Washington was downright sloppy, committing 20 turnovers while struggling to contain Cal on the offensive glass. They still won and covered as 9.5 point favorites. Washington is coming off a truly ugly clunker at Stanford on Thursday. This team has been ‘bet-on’ all the way after lousy games. Off a 25 point loss at Oregon, the Huskies covered wire-2-wire in a double OT thriller against Oregon State two days later. Off a bad home loss to Utah, Washington responded with a 23 point blowout over Colorado two days later. And that’s just here in February! This is a team we want to support off a poor effort. The entire squad appears primed for a bounceback. Sparkplug Matisse Thybulle collected a career-high 26 points in Washington’s win over Colorado, but fouled out and shot 2-for-8 from three in a frustrating outing at Stanford. Guard David Crisp has a similar skillset, but he too was awful on Thursday, with more turnovers than made shots. As a team, the Huskies lacked energy from the opening tip. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row as they step down in class against a PAC-12 bottom feeder tonight. Since beating Stanford on December 30th, Cal has done exactly what they were expected to do – lose consistently. The Bears lost four starters and their coach last offseason, projected as the PAC-12’s worst team. With a 1-13 SU record since that win over Stanford, it’s not like Cal is loaded with confidence and energy themselves; with both offensive and defensive stats that are ugly enough to merit that record. Cheap price to lay with the superior team against a foe with very little homecourt edge these days. Take Washington. |
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02-24-18 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech -4 | 75-68 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#538) (Abbreviated write-up for this early tip) Plain and simple – this is a case of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. Louisville faced the easiest schedule in the ACC over the first half of the campaign. They’re paying for that stretch of relative weaklings now – they’ve got the toughest closeout stretch in the ACC and it’s not going well. Louisville has just been blown out by Duke and North Carolina in their last two games, part of a 2-5 SU and ATS run since the end of January. The offcourt distractions surrounding the program this week certainly haven’t helped matters. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is clicking on all cylinders: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five ballgames including confidence inducing wins at Virginia and right here on this floor against Clemson. Seth Greenburg’s team has focused on defense of late and it’s showed, holding foes to 40% shooting, 31% from three point range during this five game span. And with the Hokies bench stepping up strong of late, Virginia Tech’s improved depth is primed to wear down a Cardinals team that isn’t responding well to adversity these days. Take Virginia Tech. |
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02-23-18 | Ohio State -1.5 v. Indiana | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Ohio State (#835) Let me start with an excerpt from what I wrote about Indiana prior to their loss at Nebraska on Tuesday: “Indiana has won four straight for the first time since their 2016 non-conference slate. But a closer look shows that the Hoosiers have been taking advantage of a break in their schedule – they’ve faced the bottom four teams in the Big 10 (Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers; a combined 12-52 in conference play) to earn this four game streak! Coming off a ‘hot shooting’ game in a two point win at Iowa (55% from two point range and 58% from three point range), don’t expect those Hoosiers shots to fall at the same clip against the Huskers strong defense.” The Hoosiers actually outshot Nebraska 45% to 40% in that game, but they couldn’t control the defensive glass (17 offensive rebounds for the Huskers compared to 22 defensive rebounds for the Hoosiers). Indiana notched only ten assists, compared to their 17 turnovers. Indiana is clearly good enough to beat Big 10 weaklings, but they’re not the type of team I trust to step up in class, even on senior night in Bloomington. Ohio State is still very much in contention for the Big 10 regular season title under first year head coach Chris Holtmann. His quote, talking about his senior leaders Jae’Sean Tate, Kam Williams and Andrew Dakich: “They’re the reason for the kind of year we have had. Great leadership, guys that are about doing the right stuff, good players that have worked hard to get to this point.” Tate: “We were picked to be one of the last teams in the Big Ten, and being here in the top tier is all because of that. We really love each other.” Junior Kieta Bates-Diop who just graduated and is likely to play in the NBA next year. “We just talked about in the locker room how things can cloud your judgment and thoughts. Right now, the focus is winning. Now it’s Indiana. Then it’s the Big Ten tournament, then the NCAA Tournament. We’re just trying to win games and that is what I’m thinking about.” These are ‘bet-on’ quotes all the way from a team that has won SU on the highway in B10 play at Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Iowa and Wisconsin. Ohio State is flat out better than Indiana – even Archie Miller knows it: “We have a quick turnaround now against Ohio State…. We need a group that’s really dialed in to play a team that is trying to win a league championship on our home floor.” Good luck with that, coach! Take Ohio State. |
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02-22-18 | UCLA v. Utah -2.5 | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#610) Utah has improved by leaps and bounds in recent weeks, with grad transfer point guard Justin Bibbins finally starting to develop some positive chemistry with his teammates. The Utes have won four straight (3-1 ATS, the lone non-cover coming by a half point in a comfortable victory), sparked by Bibbins – he’s only committed four turnovers in those four games combined. And Utah has a little bit of a chip on their collective shoulders based on the results of the first meeting. UCLA was hot early, leading 19-7 four minutes into the game. Utes head coach Larry Krystowiak: “I remember it well. They had 19 points four minutes into the game, which according to my math puts them on pace for about 190 points, which would have been a new record. They throttled us pretty good.” And let’s not underestimate Utah’s home court advantage in Salt Lake City – they’ve won and covered each of their last four on this floor, with only two ATS losses in eleven previous lined home games. UCLA doesn’t force many turnovers on defense, ranked among the bottom teams in the country (#334) in turnover percentage. That’s been a real problem for the Bruins in hostile road environments; hence the SU and ATS losses at Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford in PAC-12 action. And Steve Alford’s lack of depth forced him to play three starters 40+ minutes against Oregon last weekend. Depth matters in altitude and the Bruins were (are) already a step slow on the defensive end of the court……Take Utah. |
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02-21-18 | USC v. Colorado +3 | 75-64 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#770) There’s some legitimate bad blood between these two teams, an edge that works in Colorado’s favor tonight! Buffs head coach Tad Boyle wasn’t shy about criticizing the culture of the USC coaching staff last September after former Trojans assistant Tony Bland was indicted on federal charges for bribery and fraud. Andy Enfield remembered that criticism when these two teams met the first time. With the Trojans up 12, and less than 30 seconds to play, Enfield called a time-out in a dribble-out spot to run a play for Chimezie Metu. Tad Boyle after the game: "I will say this: that was a very strategic timeout from Andy Enfield and I'm not going to forget about it, and neither will our players." Boyle was right. Buffs senior leader George King earlier this week: “We think about it. We think about it.” Point guard McKinley Wright: “I didn't grow up that kind of player. But it ticked us off, knowing those guys had the win and they wanted to draw up some type of alley-oop or some type of dunk for Metu. We didn't forget it. We're looking forward to the game...We owe those guys one." Colorado had 22 turnovers and had ten shots blocked in the first meeting, uncharacteristic of how the Buffs have played for most of the season. Boyle: “That’s 32 times we don’t even get the ball to the rim, which doesn’t give us an opportunity to make a shot, doesn’t give us an offensive rebound, doesn’t get us to the foul line. Turnovers that lead to layups, turnovers that lead to 3s are huge.” And no team in the PAC-12 has as sharp of a home/road dichotomy than the young Buffaloes. Since the start of conference play, Colorado is 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in Boulder but just 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS on the highway. That’s the type of home/road dichotomy worth noting….. USC just lost veteran leader Bennie Boatwright to a season ending injury, a legit NBA prospect and the team’s second leading scorer, rebounder, shot blocker and assist man. Travelling to altitude, the loss of Boatwright matters for USC’s depth as well as their on-court abilities. It’s surely worth noting that the Trojans went 0-3 SU on their most recent road trip, losing at UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona….. Take Colorado. |
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02-21-18 | Georgia +4 v. South Carolina | 57-66 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#705) I’ve got a buy sign on the Bulldogs right now! Georgia has endured more than their fair share of struggles, despite having arguably Mark Fox’s most talented team during his nine year tenure in Athens. But they’re coming off back-2-back impressive victories, beating Florida in OT in Gainesville, then knocking off Tennessee as home underdogs over the weekend. And from all indications, we should expect this current surge to continue in Columbia tonight. Head coach Mark Fox, following the win over a Top 20 Vols squad: “This league is a monster. And you’re going to have ups and downs. We had a couple of games where we didn’t play well. They stuck together and just kept trying to get better and play the game the right way. We didn’t make any drastic changes. We just kept doing what we do. And this week they were able to play sound basketball….. This was a quality win for us. This was a solid week. But there’s more games in front. We’ve got to get ready for the next one.” One key to Georgia’s recent surge has been the play of their low post stud Yante Maten; the only player ranked in the SEC’s Top 10 in scoring, rebounding, field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage and minutes played. His quote stands out as well: “We’re a good basketball team. We proved that this week……We’re just trying to play together, play as a team. Play defensively, try to do everything that correlates to winning……We’ve just got to focus on the next game and still play with that hunger we played this week with. Every time we touched the court this week we were really hungry, and we showed that to ourselves, to the crowd and to the coaches. So we’ve just got to keep playing hungry.” The Gamecocks won at Georgia last month despite shooting just 27% from the floor thanks to a bevy of free throw attempts and a strong presence on the offensive glass. But we’re talking about a team that is 1-6 SU in their last seven games, and just 1-4 SU in their last five at home; a shell of the Final Four squad from last year. South Carolina’s shooting woes haven’t gone away since that first meeting – they’ve shot just 36% from the floor in their last five ballgames…..Take Georgia. |
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02-20-18 | Ole Miss v. Missouri -7.5 | Top | 90-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Missouri (#532) The betting markets are making a remarkable assumption tonight, with the early $$ pouring in on Ole Miss as they travel to Missouri. The markets are saying that Ole Miss is fixed now that head coach Andy Kennedy has officially resigned, leaving the program under interim head coach Tony Madlock. I’m not buying that argument one iota. This Rebels team had won 20+ games nine times in the last eleven seasons, not a program that is used to ‘just playing out the string’ games in February. They’ve completely lost contact in every recent road game, losing by 33 at Tennessee, by 16 at LSU and by 17 at Mississippi State in their last three tries. Madlock is talking the talk: “It will be a tough game for us going on the road and of course with all the circumstances going on around the program, but I think our guys will rise to the occasion and go out and play hard.” But talking the talk and walking the walk are two very separate things. Quotes like this one from sophomore guard Breein Tyree stand out as the type of attitudes that departed head coach Andy Kennedy couldn’t deal with: “Obviously, I’m keeping my options 100 percent open because, at the end of the day, I have to do what’s best for me. I came to Ole Miss to be a Rebel. I love the university. Depending on the coaches they bring in, I’ll definitely look in. I’m not saying I’m transferring, I’m not saying I'm staying. I’m just keeping my options open.” Make no mistake about it – while Ole Miss is reeling, Missouri is coming to play tonight off their first loss in six games, at LSU on Saturday. Leading scorer Kassius Robertson said the team played ‘selfish’ in that one point defeat. Head coach Cuonzo Martin framed the loss in a positive light: “When there’s a level of comfort guys lose sight of what got you to the point of having success. That’s what happens. I think the guys will be fine.” And make no mistake about it – Missouri’s ‘A’ game is likely to be a mountain the Rebels cannot overcome. The Tigers are elite defensively, ranked in the Top 25 in effective field goal percentage against from both two point range and three point range. And with three different Tigers hitting better than 40% of their shots from three point range – Kassius Robertson, Jordan Barnett and Jordan Geist have 176 made 3’s between them – we can expect this margin to stretch as the game progresses. Big Ticket: Take Missouri. For additional reading check out these links from local sources: http://www.columbiatribune.com/sports/20180219/tigers-host-rebels-and-interim-head-coach-madlock http://www.gvnews.com/national/sports/martin-wants-mizzou-to-recapture-unselfish-play-after-lsu-loss/article_76491605-f447-58b0-9cbe-337079dfb219.html |
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02-20-18 | Indiana v. Nebraska -3 | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#528) I understand Nebraska lost at Illinois on Sunday, snapping a truly remarkable ATS hot streak. I also understand that my basic premise for supporting the Huskers during extended parts of that run hasn’t changed one iota; so I’m going to cut and paste from the same pro-Huskers write-up that I’ve been using of late, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “It’s been a sin of omission not to have Nebraska every single time they’ve hit the court for the last month. My clients and I have cashed a handful of tickets supporting the Cornhuskers, but quite frankly, this team has been as ‘bet-on’ as it gets since the start of Big 10 play; 14-2ATS in their 16 league games. “And yet we’ve seen the ‘wiseguy’ steam pour in AGAINST Nebraska in early betting action. This isn’t new or different -- $$ has showed against Nebraska on a consistent basis for most of this ATS run. The wiseguys keep fading this team and they keep losing… “I love this quote from Huskers senior guard Anton Gill, especially in a ‘win and cover’ pointspread range like the Huskers are in tonight: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” This Husker program has only one trip to the Big Dance in the last 20 years (a first round loss to Baylor in 2014), and Tim Miles has them playing like a hungry, focused team.” Junior guard James Palmer, coming off his worst game in February: "We've got to move on. We can't let one loss turn into two. You always want to play games, even if it's back-to-back. Your legs are tired, but you love basketball so you just want to play." Tim Miles, talking about getting their momentum back following Sunday’s defeat: "You need to get back on the floor. You need to compete. You don't want to sit there and feel sorry for yourself or let any of those things fall in. While the wounds are still fresh, let's get out there and battle." It’s surely worth noting that Nebraska is 7-0 this season when playing on just a single day’s rest this season, key for this quick turnaround game. Indiana has won four straight for the first time since their 2016 non-conference slate. But a closer look shows that the Hoosiers have been taking advantage of a break in their schedule – they’ve faced the bottom four teams in the Big 10 (Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers; a combined 12-52 in conference play) to earn this four game streak! Coming off a ‘hot shooting’ game in a two point win at Iowa (55% from two point range and 58% from three point range), don’t expect those Hoosiers shots to fall at the same clip against the Huskers strong defense. Cheap price to lay for the Huskers fourth consecutive home sellout crowd. Take Nebraska. For additional reading check out these links from local sources: http://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/mens-basketball/huskers-hoosiers-meet-with-plenty-to-play-for-as-regular/article_b77e3652-2089-5230-baef-515a2c7a1a10.html http://www.omaha.com/huskers/mens-basketball/after-huskers-loss-to-illinois-their-march-to-march-begins/article_0e849991-b18c-5e90-a806-8268a2b69042.html |
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02-19-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -7 | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin (#714) Minnesota has lost eight straight since their OT win at Penn State. Five of those losses have come by double digit margins, including a pair of non-competitive defeats last week; losing by 30 at home to Michigan State and by 24 on the road at Indiana. Without their two best players, suspended (and subsequently expelled) big man Reggie Lynch and injured forward Amir Coffey, Richard Pitino’s team is in a world of hurt right now; a ‘dead’ team here in late February. It’s surely worth noting that Pitino has struggled to put together a gameplan to beat Wisconsin. The Badgers have won seven straight in this series. Five of the last six Wisconsin victories against Minnesota have come by double digit margins. And the Badgers, unlike the Gophers, are still playing hard every night despite their own disappointments this season. Everything broke wrong for Wisconsin in January, as the Badgers went through a truly ugly 1-8 skid, the Badgers worst stretch of basketball in decades. But they’ve come out of that stretch with a pair of outright upset victories in their last three ballgames, including an impressive upset against Purdue; a game the Badgers won despite an ugly 4-21 shooting performance from three point range. All the quotes coming out of Madison are positive ones right now. Big man Ethan Happ: “I’m not going to count us out. We’re hoping to build momentum going into the tournament.” Frosh guard Brad Davidson: “We’ve still got a long season ahead of us, so we’re just going to keep working.” Assistant coach Dean Oliver: “We can still win the Big Ten tournament, play in the NCAA tournament……We’ve had a few losses (after) we felt like we had turned the corner. It’s so late in the season now that the freshmen aren’t freshmen, there’s no excuse for it.” Cheap price to lay with the superior squad tonight. Take Wisconsin. For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/uw/2018/02/18/bo-ryan-sees-badgers-making-modest-gains-big-ten-tournament-approaches/338749002/ http://host.madison.com/wsj/sports/college/basketball/men/wisconsin-refuses-to-throw-in-the-towel/article_7bb8392f-a1bf-58b0-8610-40f175e6b06d.html |
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02-19-18 | Miami-FL +4.5 v. Notre Dame | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#703) Depth matters in these short turnaround Monday games. Miami has it. Notre Dame doesn’t. The Fighting Irish have really been through the gauntlet in recent weeks. They lost their best player, leading scorer and rebounder Bonzie Colson, at the start of ACC play. Then DJ Harvey went down, suffering a setback that has delayed his expected return from injury. Defensive stopper Rex Pflueger hurt his back on Saturday, no sure thing to be effective tonight even if he suits up. That leaves Mike Brey with a VERY limited rotation right now. Both Matt Farrell and TJ Gibbs played all 40 minutes at Boston College on Saturday. Matinas Geben and John Mooney played 30+, both guys having their second highest minute count of the season in that contest. The minute count for Farrell and Gibbs stands out, because of what happened last Monday. The Irish played a short turnaround game at North Carolina after beating Florida State on Saturday. Notre Dame had very little energy left in the tank in a 17 point defeat. Starting guards Farrell and Gibbs combined to shooting 4-27 from the floor in that ballgame, dealing with tired legs. Farrell and Gibbs just shot a combined 18-27 against BC on Saturday, including 12-16 from three point range. I’m not expecting that duo to even come close to matching that type of offensive output this evening. Miami is on an 0-3 SU & ATS slide. The first loss came by a bucket at Boston College, no shame there – it happens over the course of a long ACC campaign. Then Miami played the two best defensive teams in the ACC, back-2-back, losing both times. Canes head coach Jim Larranaga after their loss to Syracuse on Saturday: “We did a great job against the zone in practice, and I felt we were very well-prepared. The Syracuse zone must be better than our scout team zone. It was very, very hard to score. Even some of the shots we made were challenged. We settled for way too many deep threes.” Notre Dame isn’t going to come close to matching the defensive presence of Virginia or Syracuse, a major step down in defensive class for the road underdog. And Larranaga doesn’t have Brey’s depth concerns – eight different Hurricanes played at least 12 minutes of floor time in Saturday’s loss to the Orange. Live dog here! Take Miami. |
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02-18-18 | Houston v. Temple +3 | 80-59 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Temple (#856) Houston is not a ‘road chalk’ team and this is not a ‘road chalk’ spot! The Cougars have won a grand total of four road games all year: at St Louis, at East Carolina, at USF and at Central Florida (just after star center Tacko Fall got hurt). That’s not exactly a who’s who of quality foes! And yet, coming off their biggest win of the season – knocking off #5 Cincinnati on Thursday – the Cougs are being asked to lay points on the road this afternoon against a Temple team that is every bit as good as they are! Cougs coach Kelvin Sampson knows what’s coming today: "We're playing a desperate team that is trying to get into the tournament. It's a must-win for Temple. They know that. Our sense of desperation has to match their sense of desperation." Temple is coming off a particularly frustrating loss, leading Top 20 Wichita State in Wichita by 14 at halftime before falling apart late, eventually losing by seven. Still, it was the Owls sixth consecutive pointspread cover, 100% perfect ATS here in February with six straight covers; an undervalued commodity following an early five game skid. The Owls gave the Cougs everything they could handle in the first meeting between these two teams, a three point loss in Houston. No surprise here if this time, the Owls finish the job with the SU victory. Take Temple. |
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02-18-18 | Nebraska +1 v. Illinois | 66-72 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#853) Let me start with an excerpt from the same basic write-up I’ve been using to support Nebraska for the better part of the Big 10 campaign. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “It’s been a sin of omission not to have Nebraska every single time they’ve hit the court for the last month. My clients and I have cashed a handful of tickets supporting the Cornhuskers, but quite frankly, this team has been as ‘bet-on’ as it gets since the start of Big 10 play; 14-1 ATS in their 15 league games. “And yet we’ve seen the ‘wiseguy’ steam pour in AGAINST Nebraska in early betting action on Sunday. This isn’t new or different -- $$ has showed against Nebraska on a consistent basis for most of this ATS run. The wiseguys keep fading this team and they keep losing… “I love this quote from Huskers senior guard Anton Gill, especially in a ‘win and cover’ pointspread range like the Huskers are in tonight: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” This Husker program has only one trip to the Big Dance in the last 20 years (a first round loss to Baylor in 2014), and Tim Miles has them playing like a hungry, focused team.” The Huskers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games. They’ve won SU at Minnesota, Wisconsin, Rutgers and Northwestern in Big 10 play, a team that has gotten used to winning in hostile environments. Illinois, on the other hand, hasn’t been winning in any environment; at the very bottom of the Big 10 standings. They’ve lost to the likes of Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State on this floor in conference play, and their lone strength – defensive ball pressure – isn’t likely to wreak havoc on a Nebraska squad that ranks among the Top 30 teams in the country in turnover percentage on offense. The Huskers truly are the gift that keeps on giving. Take Nebraska. |
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02-17-18 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -6.5 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Mississippi State (#636) The Andy Kennedy era is not ending well at Ole Miss. Kennedy was an excellent head coach for much of his tenure, guiding the Rebels to nine 20+ win seasons in the last 11 years. But the Rebels aren’t getting to 20 wins this year; sitting at 11-15 right now while enmeshed in an ugly six game losing streak. Kennedy has already announced his departure following the end of the season. And his quotes are as ‘bet-against’ as they come. Here’s Kennedy following the Rebels ugly home loss to Arkansas earlier in the week, on the heels of an equally ugly blowout loss at LSU: "This was about Ole Miss…..I'm the man here. I'm culpable for this. After watching our performance Saturday (vs. LSU), I thought, 'Man, this is as bad as I've seen it in my 400 games.' Until tonight. I apologize. I certainly did not want to go out like this. But as I said yesterday, my words are ringing hollow. I can't get 'em, I can't reach 'em……I'm at a little bit of a loss ... I've never been more disappointed in this profession. Never.” Ole Miss didn’t show up at all for their head coach in the first game following his announcement of departure; generally a pretty strong ‘bet-on’ spot in college hoops. That’s particularly bad news today because their opponent is coming to play! Ben Howland’s Bulldogs are coming off a pair of frustrating losses on the road, losing at Missouri in OT and at Vandy by a single point. It’s surely worth noting that Mississippi State covered the spread in both of those losses, part of their current 6-0 ATS run. And, after starting the season as a moneyburner playing in Starkville, cashing just two winning bets for the entirety of non-conference play, the Rebels are 5-1 SU and ATS at home since the start of SEC play, the lone loss coming to mighty Auburn. Ole Miss ain’t Auburn…… And this is a meaningful revenge game for the Bulldog, to give us one final piece of the puzzle. In the first meeting between these two in-state rivals, Mississippi State led by nine in Oxford with eight minutes remaining. Then the Rebels they went ice cold; outscored 22-7 down the stretch, a stinging loss that they still remember. Expect a blowout – Ole Miss has a glass chin these days, unable to withstand the punches that Mississippi State is likely to throw at them. Take Mississippi State. |
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02-17-18 | UNLV +4.5 v. San Diego State | 56-94 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Take UNLV (#557) Let me start with an excerpt from my last anti- Aztecs write-up; a 25 point blowout loss against Nevada. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “San Diego State was the best team in the Mountain West Conference for most of Steve Fisher’s extended tenure as their head coach. That success has not carried over to the Brian Dutcher era. San Diego State is winless against any of the top five teams in the conference, not stepping up in class particularly well these days.” That’s certainly not the case for UNLV, a young team that is growing up before our eyes here in conference play. The Rebels are playing their best ball since December right now: 5-1 SU in their last six games, the lone loss coming by a single bucket in OT at Boise. That stretch includes a double digit win over the Aztecs in the first meeting, despite the fact that they got clobbered on the offensive glass in that contest. UNLV isn’t getting clobbered on the glass very often these days, not with their low post duo of Brandon McCoy and Shakur Juiston BOTH averaging more than ten rebounds per game. The Rebels core has stayed healthy all season, and that on-court chemistry is really starting to develop nicely. UNLV is better now than they were a month ago – much better – yet this line isn’t reflective of that improvement. Live dog here! Take UNLV. For additional reading, check out this local source link: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/sd-sp-aztecs-basketball-unlv-20180216-story.html |
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02-17-18 | VCU -2.5 v. George Washington | 56-80 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Take VCU (#559) My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against George Washington at home earlier in the month, as the Colonials were blown out by Davidson 87-58. We won’t need anywhere near that level of blowout to cash today against GWU, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if this game, too, turns into a major blowout. GWU has precious little home court advantage these days. They are 4-9 in A-10 play, and all four of those tell the same story – GWU can step down in class, but not up in class. That hasn’t changed since frosh guard Justin Mazzulla has moved into the starting lineup. UMass, LaSalle, George Mason and St Joes are the only four teams in the A-10 that the Colonials have been able to beat. All four of those squads are sub .500 teams in conference play. VCU is not! The Rams beat the Colonials by 24 in the first meeting, playing lockdown defense against GWU’s limited offense – the Colonials were held under 30% from the floor in the second half. Just as importantly, VCU dominated the glass to the tune of a +12 edge. GWU didn’t get a single second chance point off an offensive rebound in that contest; a matchup edge that’s still very much in VCU’s favor. GWU is coming off a win. They haven’t won back-2-back games since December. VCU is coming in off a poorly played loss at home against Davidson on Wednesday Night. They’ve won two of their last three on the highway, the lone loss coming by a single point at Richmond. From all indications, this is a VCU spot, against a team they’re poised to beat by margin. Take VCU. For additional reading, check out this local source link: http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/schools/virginia-commonwealth-university/as-they-continue-to-try-to-improve-their-basketball-awareness/article_47dc7014-8c3f-582e-9afd-55becd46ce45.html |
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02-15-18 | Oregon State v. UCLA -7 | 68-75 | Push | 0 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Take UCLA (#568) This pointspread is telling us to expect a competitive game. I’m not buying that the 13-11 Beavers – still winless on the highway this season (including a pair of tries as road favorites) – are going to hang tough with UCLA in this revenge matchup for the Bruins. The Bruins still remember what happened in Corvallis. Oregon State manhandled UCLA in the paint, dominating the battle of the boards (18 offensive rebounds) while using a late 10-3 run to escape with the victory. Bruins forward GG Goloman: “We're going to play a lot tougher than we did in the first game. We're going to have to fight for every loose ball and play like we want it more." Bruins leading scorer Aaron Holiday: “They already beat us once; they showed that they could do it, and it's our job to change that and beat them Thursday." Bruins head coach Steve Alford has seen his team bounce back strong from that loss to the Beavers, part of a head scratching three game PAC-12 losing streak (at the time). Since then, UCLA has gotten back on track with four wins in their last five games, including wins and covers against quality foes USC and Arizona. Alford has made one lineup adjustment from the first meeting that should help tonight – more Prince Ali matched up against Beavers guard Ethan Thompson, who snared four of those offensive rebounds in the first meeting. Alford: “Prince can help us with that, because he's a big guard who can do those things." Four of Oregon State’s five starters played at least 39 minutes in the Beavers high intensity, come-from-behind win against Washington over the weekend; a double OT thriller. Coming off back-2-back home wins – their first two game winning streak since mid-December against non-conference patsies – I’m expecting the Beavers to struggle to match UCLA’s intensity (and talent) tonight. Take UCLA. |
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02-14-18 | Nevada v. Boise State -2 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boise State (#788) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ Big Ticket winner supporting Nevada on Saturday in their 25 point blowout over San Diego State. The beauty of that result is that it gives us another prime opportunity to get involved with a Big Ticket sized wager with the Wolfpack tonight. One big difference though – this time, the clear play is AGAINST Nevada as they travel to Boise to take on the Broncos. Let me start with an excerpt from Saturday’s write-up supporting Nevada: This is the mother of all ‘step-up’ games for Nevada. Wolfpack head coach Eric Musselman was not amused by the Wolfpack’s performance against UNLV on Wednesday Night; their first home loss of the season, and dropping Musselman’s record at the Lawlor Center to 40-4 in his three years on the job. This Musselman quote really stands out: “Our defense stunk, our rebounding stunk, our loose-ball getting stunk……We played soft. I don’t know what else to say.” It was clearly a Nevada spot, and they played like it! But tonight’s game sets up very differently following that blowout win over the Aztecs. The Wolfpack are entering a truly brutal scheduling stretch, with road games at Boise, Utah State, UNLV and San Diego State in their next six games. Coach Musselman: “I was just wondering if the league office liked us or not. It’s as difficult a six-game stretch that we’ve had since I’ve been here." It’s not like Nevada has been going on the road and beating quality foes. Their road wins this season: at Santa Clara, Pacific, Hawaii, UC-Irvine, Air Force, San Jose, Colorado State and Fresno. Nevada was favored in each and every one of those ballgames – only Fresno is a decent team out of that bunch. This Wolfpack team is an overvalued commodity in a setting like this one – they’ve feasted on the weak. This is truly a statement game for the Broncos, a team that is in Joe Lunardi’s ‘First Four Out’ in the latest Bracketology . Boise lost by six in Reno earlier this season. Probable Mountain West Player of the Year, Boise’s senior playmaker Chandler Hutchinson, following that defeat: “We don’t feel like we got beat by a better team. We feel like we had some mental errors you can’t have on the road.” Boise is certainly a battle tested ballclub – nine of their last ten games have been decided by six points or less; a team that knows how to win the close ones. The Broncos are 13-0 at home this year, and their realistic chance for an at large bid rests on tonight’s performance. Count me in as a Broncos believer. Big Ticket: Take Boise State. For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2018/02/13/nevada-basketballs-most-difficult-stretch-season-starts-boise-state/334923002/ https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/basketball/valentine-s-day-special-broncos-set-for-monster-showdown-with/article_2d458801-95f2-5a68-bd54-5032651db2d1.html |
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02-14-18 | Kentucky +10 v. Auburn | 66-76 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#767) Bruce Pearl knows what’s coming tonight: "They are really long and we've been bothered by teams like Texas A&M or Alabama that do a great job of using their length, big guards. We'll have those kind of challenges. How much do you extend and make Kentucky better? But at the same time if we don't extend and let them get close to the basket, they're going be really good." John Calipari knows what’s coming tonight, talking about the challenge his team faces as they travel to face a Top 10 foe on the road: “It’s exactly what’s called for right now. This is the kind of game you want right now. How about you play someone who’s not good, and you’re still struggling? I’d rather go into this game. Let’s go. Let’s see if we can do something special.” Wildcats assistant Kenny Payne knows that Kentucky has one legitimate matchup edge against an Auburn team that doesn’t have a starter taller than 6-7; a Tigers squad that is an average of 3.5 inches shorter than their Kentucky counterparts at every position: “I think our advantages are going to be our length, our athleticism. They are not a tall team. They are basically, it looks like, three or four guards and a forward. Their tallest guy is 6-7, 6-8 that is playing minutes. We have to take advantage of that. That means offensive rebounding, that means stuff around the baskets we have to be strong. We have to be the aggressor. We have to go after them. We really have to go out and play desperate basketball.” It’s surely worth noting that despite some truly ugly stretches of basketball, the Wildcats have only suffered one loss all season by a bigger margin than tonight’s pointspread. I personally took a taste of the moneyline at +400 to go along with my wager on Kentucky plus the points. Take Kentucky. For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-basketball-men/article199888639.html https://auburn.247sports.com/Article/Auburn-wary-of-Kentucky-squad-desperate-for-win-115103566 |
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02-13-18 | Virginia v. Miami-FL +6 | 59-50 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Miami-FL (#544) Virginia enters this matchup with Miami on one hell of a run. The Cavs are ranked #1 in the current AP Poll, #3 in the Coach’s Rankings. They are 9-1 SU and ATS away from home, suffering only two pointspread losses on any floor since the calendar turned to 2018. And yet Virginia is a clear ‘bet-against’ team for me tonight as road chalk at Miami. First, note this, because it’s important. Virginia isn’t the best team in the country. They’re not in the Top 5 or Top 10 or even the Top 20 when it comes to talent. Man for man, Miami is every bit as talented. The Cavs have been exceptional this season because their defense is as good as it gets, and they’ve found enough three point shooting to survive. I’m not convinced that’s going to work against a Hurricanes team that has given Virginia all kinds of trouble in recent seasons, especially with Miami coming off an ugly, blown lead flu ridden loss to Boston College over the weekend. The Cavs are 1-7 SU on the highway in their last eight tries against Miami. The last time Miami faced the #1 team in the country on this floor, they blew out Duke 90-63. Four of the last ten meetings between these two teams have gone into overtime. Four more were decided by five points or less. Jim Larranaga has been able to match up very well against Tony Bennett, plain and simple, a trend worth riding tonight. Take Miami-FL For additional reading, check out these links: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/acc/university-of-miami/article199799244.html http://www.dailyprogress.com/cavalierinsider/wahoo-opponent-overview-miami/article_bc1c33fd-34e3-5402-a279-5515ee36f492.html |
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02-13-18 | Maryland v. Nebraska | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#524) It’s been a sin of omission not to have Nebraska every single time they’ve hit the court for the last month. My clients and I have cashed a handful of tickets supporting the Cornhuskers, but quite frankly, this team has been as ‘bet-on’ as it gets since the start of Big 10 play; 11-1 ATS in their twelve league games. And yet we’ve seen the ‘wiseguy’ steam pour in AGAINST Nebraska in early betting action on Tuesday. This isn’t new or different -- $$ has showed against Nebraska on a consistent basis for most of this ATS run. The wiseguys keep fading this team and they keep losing… I love this quote from Huskers senior guard Anton Gill, especially in a ‘win and cover’ pointspread range like the Huskers are in tonight: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” This Husker program has only one trip to the Big Dance in the last 20 years (a first round loss to Baylor in 2014), and Tim Miles has them playing like a hungry, focused team. Maryland has shorthanded since Justin Jackson and Ivan Bender got hurt. Their big three – Anthony Cowan, Darrly Morsell and Kevin Huerter – have been piling up minutes. In a blowout over Northwestern last weekend, that trio played 114 out of a possible 120 floor minutes; a clear indicator that the Terps depth isn’t what it should be. That’s bad news in a high energy setting like this one for the home team, especially considering Maryland’s woeful performance on the highway – one SU win all season, in OT, at last place Illinois. Fade the steam! Take Nebraska. |
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02-12-18 | Notre Dame +11 v. North Carolina | 66-83 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame (#713) Mike Brey has delivered the goods from an ATS perspective against Roy Williams. The Irish are 6-3 ATS in nine meetings against North Carolina since joining the ACC, including a one point loss as five point underdogs in the first meeting between these two teams; a game that Notre Dame played without their top two players. Bonzie Colson is still out for the Irish, but Matt Farrell is back on the floor, and he’s having a major impact. In back-2-back wins and covers against BC and Florida State last week – snapping a seven game skid following the Farrell injury – Farrell was a monster: 47 points and 12 rebounds. Head coach Mike Brey: “We take our lead from Matt Farrell. He’s been a warrior for us.” The Irish don’t lose contact very often, suffering only three double digit defeats all season, two of which came at Michigan State and at Duke, no shame there. And they’re facing a tired Tar Heels squad that isn’t primed to land a knockout punch tonight, given their brutal scheduling spot. Thanks to TV commitments, North Carolina will be playing their third game in five nights; the only ACC team to deal with a stretch like this. Head coach Roy Williams is already making excuses: “I don’t necessarily like it. I definitely don’t like that we’re the only one doing it. But (senior associate ACC commissioner) Paul (Brazeau) called and said we’ve got a stretch for you and it’s going to be very difficult but we need to do it. I said, alright, let’s do it.” This scheduling spot would be bad no matter what. But it’s even worse given what the Tar Heels have been through over the past four days – a grueling ‘bad blood’ victory against Duke, followed by an equally grueling revenge match against NC State; both games coming down to the final minute. For a North Carolina squad that has limited quality depth and doesn’t play lockdown defense in the halfcourt, don’t expect the Tar Heels to be able to find the energy to extend their margin tonight. Take Notre Dame. |
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02-10-18 | Washington +5 v. Oregon State | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#675) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winning bets supporting the Washington Huskies in recent weeks. Let me start with an excerpt from my last write-up supporting the Huskies in their road win at Arizona State last weekend: “Washington first year head coach Mike Hopkins was Jim Boeheim’s assistant at Syracuse for the previous 22 seasons. He took the Huskies job this past offseason and immediately started introducing Boeheim’s defensive concepts – the 2-3 matchup zone - to his veteran squad, a team with four returning starters from last year. “The results have been impressive. The Huskies rank first in the PAC-12 in 3-point field goal percentage defense, first in blocked shots, second in steals and second in scoring defense. Hopkins, talking about his team’s defense: “Learning a new system, I might be surprised with how well they’ve adapted and adjusted and believed in the zone. We’re starting to get really good at it. I think there were some growing pains, but the way that they’ve responded with it has been probably the biggest surprise. But I think that’s been probably one of the biggest reasons we’ve been winning.” Washington is coming off their ugliest offensive game of the season – by far – held to 40 points on 27% shooting in a 25 point loss at Oregon. Washington was as flat as a pancake throughout, coming off a buzzer beating upset win over a Top 20 Arizona squad. Hopkins, following the game: “I felt today it came down to Oregon played like it was life or death and you got to match that. You got to fight for that, especially when you’re on the road. One of the keys when you’re on the road is you got to keep scoring. And we just couldn’t score enough points tonight. I thought we got the ball in areas that we needed, but we just didn’t have a good flow tonight.” There’s no panic there, just a bad game, which sets up nicely for a bounceback spot tonight in Corvallis. Leading scorer Noah Dickerson: “Sometimes you have a game where the ball just doesn’t go in the basket. They did a good job of taking me out. Hats off to Oregon. They did a really good job with their game plan.” And considering the Huskies have won SU at Colorado, Wazzou, USC and Kansas, bouncing back on the road is something we can expect, not just hope for. Oregon State has been a terrible favorite all year, just 2-8 ATS when laying -12 or fewer. This is not a particularly strong homecourt, losing SU to the likes of Wyoming and Utah on this floor. And Wayne Tinkle’s squad just got their ‘must win’ game against hapless Wazzou earlier in the week. Their last two game winning streak came well before Christmas…..Take Washington. For additional reading from local sources, click this link: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-basketball/washingtons-offense-goes-cold-in-65-40-loss-to-oregon/ |
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02-10-18 | Wyoming +6.5 v. UNLV | 70-85 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#661) Expect a battle, not a blowout! UNLV is in a major flat spot, coming off a HUGE road upset against arch-rival Nevada, on the heels of a two point overtime loss at Boise. Both games were extremely intense, down-to-the-wire affairs. For a team that has been extremely prone to letdowns all season, that raises a big red flag when it comes to tonight’s game, a rare 5 PM start time for a team that usually plays a couple of hours later. The Rebels have had a very tough time stringing wins together in conference play; just 1-5 SU in their last six tries coming off a single victory. Even the 1 comes with an asterisk – it came against 3-19 San Jose State, and the Rebels never sniffed a pointspread cover. And as favorites, UNLV has been nothing short of awful: 0-10 ATS in their last ten tries laying more than a bucket; consistently unable to beat teams by margin. My local sources are NOT impressed with the Rebels chances to win today, let alone to win by margin. Wyoming is as tough as nails, and they are an 80% ATS proposition this year when catching more than a bucket as underdogs. Senior Hayden Dalton and junior Justin James are legit talents, combining for more than 36 ppg between them. But the Cowboys biggest strength is their quality depth, with nine guys averaging double digit minutes. That quality depth is a big reason why Wyoming keeps winning tight games late – they’re fresher down the stretch -- including a remarkable 6-0 SU season in overtime games. Live dog here! Take Wyoming. For additional reading, click on these links: http://trib.com/sports/college/wyoming/mbb/wyoming-men-s-basketball-seeks-first-road-win-against-unlv/article_0f770cc4-abd9-5dd1-9307-a8b77476adb8.html https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/unlv/unlv-basketball/rebels-need-to-show-unr-victory-wasnt-a-fluke/ |
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02-10-18 | San Diego State v. Nevada -5.5 | Top | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Nevada (#660) This is the mother of all ‘step-up’ games for Nevada. Wolfpack head coach Eric Musselman was not amused by the Wolfpack’s performance against UNLV on Wednesday Night; their first home loss of the season, and dropping Musselman’s record at the Lawlor Center to 40-4 in his three years on the job. This Musselman quote really stands out: “Our defense stunk, our rebounding stunk, our loose-ball getting stunk……We played soft. I don’t know what else to say.” From a local columnist in the Reno papers, following the game: ‘(Musselman) questioned their toughness. He questioned whether or not they were even capable of playing sound defense. He wondered if they could even recover enough to finish in the top five of the Mountain West and get a bye out of the first round of the Mountain West tournament. You can be sure that the rest of (the week) is going to be a basketball boot camp for this Wolf Pack team.” San Diego State was the best team in the Mountain West Conference for most of Steve Fisher’s extended tenure as their head coach. That success has not carried over to the Brian Dutcher era. Following their demoralizing 18 point loss at Fresno on Tuesday, the Aztecs are just 1-5 SU on the highway in MWC play. They’ll likely be without key senior Trey Kell (ankle) again today. And San Diego State is winless against any of the top six teams in the conference, not stepping up in class particularly well these days. This game is a mismatch being priced like a competitive contest. Expect a rout! Big Ticket: Take Nevada. For additional reading, click on this link https://www.recordcourier.com/sports/pack-loss-to-rebels-a-disappointment/ |
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02-10-18 | Tennessee v. Alabama +2.5 | 50-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#618) This is most assuredly a ‘step-up’ spot for Alabama, with a Top 25 team coming to Tuscaloosa on Saturday, offering the Crimson Tide a chance at redemption for their sluggish loss at Mississippi State earlier in the week. Bama has consistently struggled to get up for lesser foes. Sophomore Daniel Giddens: “I think we bring our A-game for Top -25 teams and that’s something we need to do for every team, bring our A-game. To be honest with you, I can’t tell you why.” Bama is 4-1 SU against Top 25 opposition this year, the lone loss coming at Minnesota in November when the Crimson Tide were forced to play 5-on-3 in the second half due to injuries and fouls. They STILL covered the spread in a five point loss. They won by 18 at Florida last Saturday, gave Auburn their first SEC loss at home last month, beat Texas A&M by 22 on this floor and even beat Rhode Island, currently ranked #18 and riding a 15 game winning streak. Alabama’s ‘A’ game is damn good, and this is one game where we can expect to see it! Head coach Avery Johnson: “Right now we’re 24 games into the season, we’re good enough. We can’t continue to use immaturity or inexperience as an excuse; we have to just grow up and I have to do a better job of coaching them.” Tennessee is as fat & happy as it gets after pulling the outright upset in Lexington against Kentucky earlier in the week, their sixth straight win. I’m not buying Rick Barnes’ squad as a juggernaut that is going to roll through the SEC without a couple of hiccups along the way. Be SURE to take at least a portion of your wager on the moneyline for this one, a game the Crimson Tide are primed to win in SU fashion. Take ‘Bama For additional reading, click on this link: http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/alabama/2018/02/09/inconsistency-alabama-mens-basketball-team-needs-stop-if-tide-going-make-ncaa-run/325168002/ |
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02-10-18 | San Jose State +9 v. Colorado State | 79-90 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Take San Jose State (#595) Colorado State has NO BUSINESS in this pointspread range today. I understand that San Jose State is the worst team in the conference. But the Spartans haven’t quit on their coach or their season. They’ve covered the spread in each of their last three losses, all competitive games, and all against better foes than they’ll face today (New Mexico, UNLV and Wyoming). The Spartans are not a ‘quit’ team, not even close. That’s not the case for Colorado State, as head coach Larry Eustachy is once again embroiled in turmoil, accused of abuse within the program. Players refused to practice on Thursday. Associate head coach Steve Barnes, who has taken over temporarily while the Eustachy, has not solved the problem. From local sources: Other sources said the players were refusing to practice because associate head coach Steve Barnes, who multiple sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, have said is “as bad” or “worse” than Eustachy, his close friend and boss for 22 of the past 27 seasons. Even worse, the locker room appears to be split between players who support Eustachy, like leading scorer Prentiss Nixon and teammates Raquan Mitchell and Anthony Bonner. However, according to multiple sources, a majority of those who are part of the program spoke out against Eustachy when the current investigation began last week. Bottom line – Colorado State has a fractured locker room and a seven game losing streak. Their last pointspread cover as a favorite came back in December, and I’m not anticipating a second one this afternoon….. Take San Jose State. |
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02-09-18 | Davidson +6.5 v. Rhode Island | 59-72 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Davidson (#827) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Davidson last weekend, a 29 point blowout win on the road at George Washington. This isn’t new or different for the Wildcats. This veteran squad has won SU on the highway at Fordham, George Mason and Charlotte as well, while losing by only one point at Dayton and covering wire-2-wire against North Carolina in Charlotte. Bob McKillop’s squad isn’t short on talent. Senior forward Peyton Aldridge just hung 29 points on St Joes before halftime, while the Hawks as a team scored only 28. The only other player in modern Davidson history to outscore an opponent for a full half? Some guy named Steph Curry….. McKillop has also changed up the Wildcats defense since some early season struggles, relying more on zone defense than man-to-man. The results have been impressive. Only one of their last ten opponents has scored more than 70 points against them. McKillop: “We were struggling to keep people from beating us and we were struggling playing man at about the 28th minute and then they were picking us apart. We didn’t rest in zone. It’s a matter of rhythm — how many shots you are giving up, how many fouls you are giving, the kind of shots you are giving up.” Rhode Island has had a full week off between games. If the team was riddled with injuries or struggling in any way, that would probably be a good thing. But URI has won 14 straight, earning a #18 ranking nationally. They are the #6 team nationally in RPI; ahead of Duke, Cinci, Auburn, North Carolina, Kentucky and so many other contenders. This week off came at the worst time for the Rams; walking around campus as ‘fat & happy’ as it gets…. And make no mistake about it – URI is an overvalued commodity right now. Sagarin, Massey and Ken Pom all have the Rams ranked between #20 and #33. I’m not buying URI in that range just yet. And Davidson will surely remember Rhode Island ending their season in the A-10 tournament last March, an ugly 84-60 blowout. Davidson has hit their free throws at an 87% clip in their last five games, taking advantage of those opportunities. URI has allowed opponents to shoot 49% from the field during that same span, not bringing the requisite energy on the defensive end of the court. Expect a competitive contest, with Davidson ‘live’ to pull off the outright upset….or at least come pretty darn close! Take Davidson. For additional reading, check out these links: http://www.independentri.com/rhody_overtime/article_6cf9676e-0db3-11e8-bcbb-bf955c8ec467.html http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20180208/rams-aim-to-disrupt-davidson-sharpshooters |
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02-08-18 | USC +4 v. Arizona State | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Take USC (#587) The concept here is simple: Arizona State lives and dies based on their perimeter shooting, a team that went 12-0 to open the season in large part due to their ability to drain three point shots. When that perimeter shooting goes cold, the Sun Devils aren’t winning games or covering pointspreads very often, as clearly evidenced by their current 2-8-1 ATS run since the start of PAC-12 play. It’s surely worth noting who Arizona State has been able to beat by margin in conference. The Sun Devils only wins by more than three points all came against PAC-12 bottom feeders: Cal, Washington State and Colorado; teams that are a combined 9-25 SU in conference play. When asked to step up against quality foes, Bobby Hurley’s team has been an ATS disaster area. Both meetings between these two teams last year came down to the final possession: USC winning by 1 and Arizona State winning by 3. This year’s USC squad is every bit as good if not better than last year’s 26 win squad. Coming off a tough loss to cross-town rival UCLA over the weekend, it’s a prime bounceback spot for a team that has proven repeatedly that they’re capable of winning games in SU fashion away from home. The Trojans have won at Oregon, Oregon State, Cal and Vandy, while losing by only 3 at UCL and 1 at Stanford. No surprise here if this game, like last year’s meetings, comes down to the final possession. Take USC. |
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02-07-18 | Texas A&M +7 v. Auburn | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Texas A&M (#757) Bruce Pearl knows what’s coming tonight, now that Texas A&M is back at full strength, following a barrage of mid-season injuries: “This Texas A&M team was picked second or third [in the SEC]. Some people had them first….. They're big. They lead the SEC in rebounding and defense. It's great for our league that they're back and playing well. We know we're going to have our hands full on Wednesday." The Aggies defensive mindset under head coach Billy Kennedy gave Auburn fits in each of the last two meetings between these squads: 81-62 and 81-63 A&M victories; one on each team’s home floor. Auburn has developed an ample following in the betting markets too: 9-1 ATS in their last ten ballgames including five straight wins and covers as part of their 16-5 ATS season. There are no betting market bargains to support this home favorite at this stage of the campaign! That’s not the case for the Aggies, who lost their betting bandwagon during that nasty injury plagued stretch in January where they went 2-7 SU and ATS. Since getting all his key cogs acclimated on the floor together once again, we’ve seen back-2-back dominant showings from the Aggies in their last two games, both blowout wins. Auburn is not likely to win the battle of the boards tonight. The Aggies low post duo of Tyler Davis and Robert Williams is a significant matchup edge for the road underdog. And Auburn’s defensive pressure isn’t likely to create turnovers in bunches vs. an Aggies team that can handle the basketball with senior Duane Wilson and junior Admon Gilden on the perimeter. No surprise here if the Aggies pull the outright upset……or at least come pretty darn close! Take Texas A&M. For additional reading, check out these links: http://www.oanow.com/sports/college/auburn/basketball/men/no-auburn-bracing-for-texas-a-m-s-size-advantage/article_112994f8-0b7a-11e8-808e-736178aefe1b.html https://247sports.com/college/texas-am/Article/Auburn-basketball-coach-Bruce-Pearl-on-Texas-AM-Theyve-got-their-roster-intact-114708938 |
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02-06-18 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -1.5 | 75-69 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Ole Miss (#556) For additional reading, check out these links below: http://www.djournal.com/sports/rebels-try-to-break-skid-tonight-as-missouri-visits/article_7762f443-0d1d-55e2-b315-ffe47cbd0a2b.html https://missouri.rivals.com/news/starting-five-mizzou-vs-ole-miss-1 http://thedmonline.com/rebels-hope-rebound-home-versus-tigers-tonight/ https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/sec/university-of-missouri/article198463284.html This one is simple. It’s ‘circle the wagons’ time for the Rebels following an ugly stretch of basketball in recent weeks. After losing spread covering heartbreakers to Texas A&M and Arkansas and a solid home win over Alabama, things have gone south for Andy Kennedy’s team in recent weeks, with losses to Texas and Auburn, followed by a truly ugly ‘bottoming out’ 33 point loss to Tennessee on Saturday. Kennedy: “I don’t think it’s our effort. We tell our guys they’re going to have to make multiple efforts on every possession to put themselves in position to win an SEC game. When we’ve executed and played to our potential we’ve had success. When we haven’t executed to our standard ... the league is unforgiving, and you’re not going to win.” While this is most assuredly a ‘step-up’ spot for the home team, it’s the antithesis of a ‘step-up’ spot for the road underdog. Missouri is coming off two HUGE wins, including the program’s first ever victory over mighty Kentucky on Saturday. That victory was keyed by a 2-20 three point shooting effort for the Wildcats; much of which was just poor shooting, not amazing Tigers defense. Ole Miss has connected at a 37% clip from beyond the arc in their last five ballgames. The Rebels want to push the pace, and they’ve been successful doing so, particularly at home. Missouri has only eight healthy players on scholarship right now; not a team with the depth to play 40 minutes of uptempo basketball on the highway against a highly motivated foe. And it’s surely worth noting that Ole Miss has been covering spreads as short favorites; 5-2 ATS in their seven previous tries as single digit chalk. Sharp $$ poured in on Ole Miss this morning for good reason! Take Mississippi. |
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02-04-18 | Wisconsin v. Maryland OVER 132 | 63-68 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin – Maryland OVER (#821-822) Abbreviated write-up on a very busy Super Bowl morning… I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. First, neither team is playing a lick of defense right now. The Badgers and Terps rank #11 and #13 in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency; not exactly ‘lockdown’ defenses. Expect both teams to get more than their fair share of transition opportunities and open looks. Second, the Badgers have had a somewhat unlikely roll of the dice when it comes to three point shooting lately. For the full season, they’re well within the ‘normal’ range offensively and defensively with the three-ball; 33% makes, 36% allowed. But in their last five games, neither Wisconsin nor their opponent has shot better than 28% from beyond the arc. That’s a random fluctuation working in our favor here – the Terps have hit 40% from three point range in their last five games…. Lastly, this game is primed to be a foul fest. Both squads have had issues with fouling all year – part of their defensive struggles. Plus, this pointspread range is right in the wheelhouse for some late game ‘foul and three pointer’ shenanigans, should we need them. Take the Over. |
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02-03-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas UNDER 152.5 | 74-79 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Texas – Oklahoma UNDER (#623-624) Abbreviated write-up on a very busy Super Bowl weekend in Vegas. Here’s the quote from Shaka Smart, talking about how he wants to defend Oklahoma’s breakout frosh, point guard Trae Young: “Trae is having a historic season. He’s the engine that makes them go. As good as he is at scoring, he does a phenomenal job moving the ball around. You’ve got to try to limit something he does, either preventing him from getting huge points or setting up his teammates from scoring big.” Texas has been fairly adept at creating defensive gameplans to shut down star players – that’s how Shaka Smart got this job to begin with! And that’s bad news for Young and the Sooners; a team that hasn’t played a single ‘grinder’ all year. In each of Oklahoma’s first 21 games this season, at least one team has reached 80 points, with the Sooners able to push the pace effectively. That’s why Oklahoma currently ranks #5 in the nation in tempo and #4 in the nation in fewest seconds per shot on offense. Texas, in contrast, ranks #275 in pace and #306 in defensive seconds per shot. The Longhorns don’t give up anything in transition, and low post defensive stud Mo Bamba is the nation’s leading shot blocker patrolling the paint. That’s why the Longhorns rank #4 in the nation in defensive efficiency, with Top 20 defensive rankings for opponents effective field goal percentage and blocked shot percentage. Even if the pace is relatively fast here, I’m not expecting much offensive execution. Take the Under. |
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02-03-18 | Davidson -6.5 v. George Washington | 87-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Davidson (#535) Abbreviated write-ups on a very busy Super Bowl weekend in Vegas. For additional reading, check out the link below: https://www.gwhatchet.com/2018/01/31/mens-basketball-downed-by-duquesne-in-two-point-contest/ There was nothing fraudulent about Davidson’s 72-45 domination vs. George Washington when these two teams met last month. The Wildcats defense smothered the Colonials from start to finish, while Bob McKillop’s squad got good looks all night long, shooting 54% from the floor. I’m expecting more of the same today. GWU has precious little home court advantage these days. They are 2-7 in A-10 play, both wins coming in the role of a favorite against weak foes, The Colonials played as well as they could against Duquesne on Wednesday, shooting 51% from the floor. They still lost outright as favorites….. Davidson has shown the ability to blow out bad teams on the road – they beat Fordham by 30, George Mason by 27 and Charlotte by 15 in previous tries as road chalk. In fact, ten of their eleven victories this year have come by double digit margins. Only one of these two teams is capable of playing any defense. And the Wildcats 77% free throw shooting for the season is key in this pointspread range, should Davidson need to sink some free throws to ice it. Take Davidson |
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02-03-18 | Kentucky +2 v. Missouri | 60-69 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#551) Abbreviated write-ups on a very busy Super Bowl weekend in Vegas. For additional reading, check out the links below: http://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-basketball-men/article198160059.html https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/college/kentucky/2018/02/02/kentucky-basketball-stock-watch-uk-wildcats/1085961001/ The Alabama quotes after losing at home to Missouri earlier in the week – a game that snapped Mizzou’s three game losing streak – were not loaded with complements about how well the Tigers performed. No, the quotes were all about ‘Bama’s lack of energy and flat effort; not Missouri stepping up. In other words, I’m not convinced that Missouri has turned the corner on their mediocre campaign. They’ve already lost on this floor to both Auburn and Florida, and it’s surely worth noting that they haven’t beaten Kentucky even once since joining the SEC. Kentucky, on the other hand, does appear to have ‘turned the corner’ following back-2-back losses to South Carolina and Florida. It’s been three straight victories for the Wildcats since, including one of the best halves of basketball any team has played all year in their last road game, rallying back from 17 points down to beat West Virginia in West Virginia. This quote from Bob Huggins stood out to me after that game: “They took us out of some things. And the truth of the matter is they are just better than we are. They’re more talented.” They’re more talented than Missouri too! Take Kentucky. |
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02-01-18 | Arizona State v. Washington +3 | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#566) For additional reading, check out these links: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-basketball/uws-matisse-thybulle-and-dominic-green-preview-big-matchup-against-no-25-asu/ http://www.dailyuw.com/sports/article_89175f14-070a-11e8-9428-2f710a27c39c.html The concept here is simple: Arizona State lives and dies based on their perimeter shooting, a team that went 12-0 to open the season in large part due to their ability to drain three point shots. When that perimeter shooting goes cold, the Sun Devils aren’t winning games or covering pointspreads very often, as clearly evidenced by their current 1-7-1 ATS run since the start of PAC-12 play. Washington first year head coach Mike Hopkins was Jim Boeheim’s assistant at Syracuse for the previous 22 seasons. He took the Huskies job this past offseason and immediately started introducing Boeheim’s defensive concepts – the 2-3 matchup zone - to his veteran squad, a team with four returning starters from last year. The results have been impressive. The Huskies rank first in the PAC-12 in 3-point field goal percentage defense, first in blocked shots, second in steals and second in scoring defense. They’ve held foes to 28% shooting from three point range in their last five games. Arizona State hasn’t seen a zone defense like this one yet this season, and it stands out as a particularly problematic matchup for them. Hopkins, talking about his team’s defense: “Learning a new system, I might be surprised with how well they’ve adapted and adjusted and believed in the zone. We’re starting to get really good at it. I think there were some growing pains, but the way that they’ve responded with it has been probably the biggest surprise. But I think that’s been probably one of the biggest reasons we’ve been winning.” Coming off an impressive game in which they dished out 20 assists in a blowout over in-state rival Wazzou, look for the Huskies to continue their winning ways at home tonight. Take Washington. |
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01-31-18 | Connecticut v. UCF OVER 124 | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Take UConn – UCF OVER (#761-762) Tacko Fall might not be a household name in the college basketball betting world, but he probably should be! UCF’s 7-6 center spent most of the season patrolling the paint, swatting away shots, snaring rebounds and leading the Golden Knights to a #4 national ranking in defensive efficiency as of this morning. That #4 defensive efficiency is flat out lying, because Tacko Fall is hurt, out for the year. In the two games since the injury, UCF has flown Over the total both times by an average of 14 points per game. It’s surely worth noting that the Knights just got their best OFFENSIVE player back from an extended injury absence, with BJ Taylor pouring in 37 points over that same two game span. The first meeting between these two teams came three weeks ago -- with Fall in and Taylor out – and was totaled at 124.5. This game is totaled even lower, despite the obvious need for a major market adjustment to UCF’s totals ratings. We don’t need a track meet or a strong shooting game for either team to cash this Over bet. Let’s simply take advantage of a marketplace that is factoring in season long stats far more than they should when it comes to this particular matchup. Take the OVER. |
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01-30-18 | Xavier -4.5 v. St. John's | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Xavier (#547) For additional reading on this game, click these links from local sources: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/xavier/2018/01/29/streaking-xavier-university-men-ready-slumping-st-johns/1073921001/ https://nypost.com/2018/01/29/st-johns-best-hope-left-is-to-pull-off-a-miracle/ To say that things have gone south for St Johns over the last month is something of an understatement. The Red Storm won only eight games in Chris Mullin’s first season on the job and went 14-19 last year; shut out of the postseason. But the Johnnies opened up 2017-18 with a world of promise; 10-2 SU in their dozen non-conference games. That was then, this is now. The Johnnies have now lost ten straight. They are 4-0 ATS as double digit underdogs during that span, but 0-6 ATS when NOT catching +11 or higher. Since their heartbreaking double OT loss at fellow Big East bottom feeder Georgetown last weekend, we’ve seen the Red Storm offense collapse, culminating in a 29% shooting effort in a 25 point loss at Butler. How do the Red Storm bounce back from that while taking on an elite Musketeers squad? Not easily! This offense hasn’t done all that much since starting guard Marcus LoVett got hurt. St. John’s now ranks 302nd in the nation in field goal percentage (42.0), and 319th in 3-point percentage (31.5); not a team that I trust against an elite opponent capable of lighting up the scoreboard. While Trevon Bluiett is the unquestioned senior leader on Xavier, the supporting cast around him is deep and talented. Chris Mack’s squad has eight other players in the regular rotation, all of whom average at least 15 minutes and seven points per game. That type of quality depth is why the Musketeers have been so good at extending leads, including a 7-2 ATS mark as single digit favorites. The Johnnies are 0-4 ATS this year as single digit underdogs. This game is a mismatch being priced like a competitive contest. Take Xavier. |
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01-27-18 | Stanford -6 v. UCLA | 73-89 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#665) The Bruins snapped their three game losing streak with a win over Cal in their last game. They still didn’t cover the pointspread, a clear indicator that UCLA remains an overvalued commodity at this stage of the season. And Steve Alford, who started four guards in the win over the Bears won’t be able to do that tonight against Stanford; not with the Cardinal starting 6-9 Michael Humphrey, 6-8 Reid Travis and 6-8 Kezie Okpala in their front court. From a pointspread perspective, Stanford is the hottest team in the PAC-12, notching seven consecutive pointspread covers. Both losses during this span – against the two best teams in the conference, USC and Arizona – came by five points or less; competitive defeats. Jerod Haase didn’t particularly impress me as a head coach in his first season with the Cardinal last year, as Stanford finished with a losing SU and ATS record. And the Cardinal struggled coming out of the gate again this year; covering only one pointspread in their first eight lined games while losing outright to the likes of Eastern Washington, Portland State and Long Beach State while getting blown off the court in ‘step-up’ games vs. Florida, Kansas and North Carolina. That was then, this is now! All of that losing left the Cardinal thoroughly devalued in the betting markets just as they were finally showing signs of ‘getting it’ under Haase; hence their current STRONG ATS uptick, a ‘bet-on’ team at this stage of the campaign. Throw in the continued development of low post stud Reid Travis (19.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per game), and the Cardinal are MUCH better now than their full season power ratings would indicate. UCLA is NOT a bet-on team, still struggling to find their rhythm and chemistry following the whole ‘shoplifting in China’ debacle. Steve Alford doesn’t have much quality depth on his roster these days, with only eight players getting consistent court time. His team has been a moneyloser as chalk this season, in contrast to Stanford’s 60% ATS mark when catching points, even AFTER that rough start. The first meeting between these two teams went into overtime and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see this game come down to the final possession as well. Too many points! Take Stanford. |
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01-27-18 | Iowa v. Nebraska -3.5 | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#650) My clients and I cashed yet another winner backing Nebraska in their road win at Rutgers earlier in the week. This isn’t new or different – the Huskers have been a real meal ticket for us in recent weeks thanks to their RED HOT 11-1 ATS mark in their last 12 ballgames. And yet we’ve seen the ‘wiseguy’ steam pour in AGAINST Nebraska in early betting action on Saturday. This isn’t new or different -- $$ showed against Nebraska in that game at the RAC earlier in the week, and in their spread covering five point loss to Ohio State before that, and in their 20 point blowout over Michigan before that. The wiseguys keep fading this team and they keep losing… I love this quote from Huskers senior guard Anton Gill: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” This Husker program has only one trip to the Big Dance in the last 20 years (a first round loss to Baylor in 2014), and Tim Miles has them playing like a hungry, focused team. Iowa got off the schnied with a blowout win over Wisconsin earlier in the week on a hot shooting night at home. But this team isn’t primed to win many road games. They lost by margin at Virginia Tech, Indiana, Iowa State, Maryland and Rutgers; their lone road win and cover coming in OT at lowly Illinois in a game they trailed by 19 before the Illini fell apart. From a defensive standpoint, the Hawkeyes numbers are downright ugly in Big 10 play; dead last in total defense and #13 (of 14 Big 10 teams) in effective field goal percentage allowed. No surprise here if the Huskers run the Hawkeyes out of the gym….. Take Nebraska. |
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01-27-18 | Virginia +3.5 v. Duke | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Virginia (#533) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game) There are two significant differences between this year’s Virginia team and Tony Bennett’s recent versions; all of which have been very good teams, but none of them elite. First, the 2018 Cavaliers can hit perimeter shots. Top three scorers Kyle Guy, Devon Hall and Ty Jerome are all at 42% or better from beyond the arc. And second, Bennett’s ‘Pack Line’ defense isn’t just shutting teams down in the halfcourt this year – they’re forcing turnovers in bunches, ranked #11 in the nation in turnover percentage (they were #248 as recently as two years ago). Duke excels playing uptempo, ranked #13 in the nation in offensive pace. Virginia ranks dead last: #351 in defensive pace – they don’t give up anything in transition and force opponents to work deep into the shot clock with their offensive possessions. Duke’s four frosh starters haven’t seen defense like this before.... The Cavs lost by only one point on their last visit to Cameron Indoor Arena, cashing a winning bet as a short road underdog. Expect another feisty effort (and pointspread cover) from Tony Bennett’s squad today! Take Virginia |
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01-25-18 | Utah v. Arizona State -8 | 80-77 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#556) We’ve got a solid ‘buy low’ opportunity with Arizona State at home tonight as they take on Utah. The markets have crashed on Bobby Hurley’s squad in recent weeks, after their 12-0 start went south with a 2-4 opening to their PAC-12 season. Arizona State hasn’t covered a pointspread since before Christmas – there’s no Sun Devils betting bandwagon any more, like there was earlier in the season But this is still the same team that beat San Diego State, Xavier, Kansas State, Kansas and Vanderbilt in non-conference play, with four of those victories coming by double digit margins. They were good enough to beat Utah in Salt Lake City earlier this month. And from all indications, the Sun Devils are primed to bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Head coach Bobby Hurley: “We’re at a juncture where we’re sitting at 3-4 in the league and nationally, people still think we’re pretty good and I know we’re good, but we kinda gotta break out of the middle of the pack right now and try to win a set of games which we haven’t done this year in league play.” Hurley is confident that leading scorer Tra Holder is primed for a bounceback showing after shooting less than 30% from the floor in his last five games: “I think he’s in a way better frame of mind after the Cal game. I think he’s put those (rough) couple of games behind him.” And Arizona State’s home court means something these days. The Sun Devils home game against Oregon two weeks ago featured their largest crowd since 2010! Hurley: “It’s been electric playing there and we need that this week.” Utah got run out of the gym in each of their last two road tilts, losing by 17 at USC and by 19 at UCLA. They’ve lost the rebounding battle in every single previous road game this season while struggling defensively: 47% shooting allowed while giving up ten three pointers per game. Against a sharpshooting team like the Sun Devils, that’s a recipe for trouble…. Take Arizona State. |
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01-24-18 | Nebraska +2 v. Rutgers | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#735) My clients and I have cashed a pair of winners backing Nebraska in recent weeks, including their recent spread covering two point loss in OT at Penn State in a road tilt less than two weeks ago. And frankly, from all indications, the Cornhuskers are still an undervalued commodity as they travel to New Jersey to take on Rutgers at the RAC tonight. Senior guard Anton Gill: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” With four double digit scorers, the Huskers have a balanced attack. They’ve won seven of their last ten overall, including a road win at Northwestern and spread covers at Purdue, Penn State and Ohio State. From a pointspread perspective, the Huskers have been undervalued for the last month, 10-1 ATS in their last eleven lined contests. Rutgers has the effort, but they don’t have the talent. The Scarlet Knights are a woeful offensive ballclub. In Big 10 play, they rank dead last in the conference in effective field goal percentage; bad news against a Nebraska defense that currently ranks #1 in the conference in effective FG % allowed on defense. When you’re ranked #343 in the nation in effective field goal percentage and you’re facing a hungry team that plays defense, it’s clearly a problem. The Scarlet Knights lost on this floor to the likes of Hartford and Stony Brook in non-conference play; just 2-6 SU in their last nine overall. Both teams have faced Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan and Wisconsin already in Big 10 play. Against those four opponents alone, Nebraska was more than 70 points better on the floor; dominance that is clearly not reflected in this relatively cheap pointspread. Take Nebraska. |
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01-23-18 | Texas A&M -2.5 v. LSU | Top | 65-77 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#553) My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner with Texas A&M on Saturday in their double digit win over Missouri. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “On Christmas Day, Texas A&M was ranked as the #5 team in the country. Then the injury bug started to bite, and it bit hard. Of the ten players in Billy Kennedy’s base rotation, only two guys have been able to suit up in every game. Starters DJ Hogg, Admon Gilder, Duane Wilson and Robert Williams all missed time, and the Aggies faced a very difficult opening part of their SEC schedule. “The end result from all those injuries? The Aggies are now sitting with a 1-5 record in SEC play. They’re at home. And they’re finally healthy again, coming off three strong days of practice sessions since their losing-streak snapping win over Ole Miss. And with all the key cogs healthy, let’s not forget how much playing time the role players have gotten in recent weeks; leaving the Aggies with depth, talent and the level of hunger that I’m looking for out of my home favorites.” With the win over Missouri, A&M is now 2-5 in SEC play. Remember, this team was #5 in the nation less than a month ago, and they’re healthy now. I’ve got a big ‘BUY’ sign on Billy Kennedy’s squad and their #12 ranked effective field goal percentage allowed on defense after holding the Tigers to 49 points over the weekend. Wilson, Gilder and Williams all missed the first meeting with LSU this season, while Hogg was very rusty in his first game back. The game was one that Texas A&M remembers well; a one point heartbreaking defeat at home thanks to a pair of three pointers in the final 12 seconds from LSU frosh point guard Tremont Waters, turning a five point Aggies lead into a loss. Now, with all hands on deck, A&M gets their shot at revenge; an elite, motivated ballclub that is undervalued in the betting markets following their rough start to SEC play. LSU went 2-16 in SEC play last year, and Will Wade’s first season on the job has had plenty of hiccups, particularly at home. The Tigers are just 2-4 SU in their last six home games where crowd support has been tepid at best, and their current three game overall skid doesn’t have the team playing with much confidence right now. Clear ‘bet-on’ vs. clear ‘bet against’ in a short turnaround revenge spot has this bettor stepping up his wager to Big Ticket size tonight! Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M. |
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01-20-18 | Boise State +6.5 v. Nevada | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Boise State (#685) Boise is a ‘bet-on’ team all the way every time they hit the highway. The results don’t lie. They’ve already won in conference as road underdogs at UNLV and at Fresno. They won SU at Oregon in non-conference play. Last year, they won SU on the highway at Utah, Air Force, Colorado State, Wyoming, UNLV, San Jose, Utah State and Loyola. Leon Rice preaches a clam, steady approach, and the veteran Broncos have bought into that mentality, plain and simple. The Broncos have arguably the best player in the conference in Chandler Hutchinson; a versatile 6-7 wing. 6-6 guard Justinian Jessup has been outstanding on the defensive end while chipping in on the glass for a team that is averaging a +7 rebounding margin per game. Most notably, this team cleans up the defensive glass, #1 in the COUNTRY at allowing second chance opportunities off offensive rebounds. And Boise ranks #7 nationally in three point defense, shutting teams down from beyond the arc. That makes margins very difficult to obtain against these Broncos. Nevada’s resurgence this season has largely been based on the emergence of a pair of NC State transfers, Caleb and Cody Martin. But Cody – ranked in the top three on the team in points, rebounds and assists – is listed as doubtful tonight with an Achilles injury, an impact injury for Eric Musselman’s squad. Given Nevada’s value problem of late -- only 3 pointspread covers in their last eleven games following an 8-0 ATS start – taking the points with the Broncos in their best role is something of a no-brainer. Take Boise. |
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01-20-18 | Florida +2.5 v. Kentucky | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Florida (#667) Let me start with a cut and paste from my write-up supporting the Gators two weeks ago in a SU road win at Missouri; a game that played out EXACTLY as expected, with Florida making all the big plays during crunch time. “The Gators veteran backcourt of Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen have played more than 200 college basketball games between them, the type of experienced floor leaders I want on my side when it comes to ‘pick ‘em’ type games in hostile environments. The Chiozza – Allen duo helped Florida win six SEC road games in SU fashion last year. They just blew out Texas A&M in College Station, and have wins over the likes of Gonzaga and Cinci on neutral floors; a ‘bet-on’ team in games like this one.” And that’s the crux of this bet. I trust the Florida upperclassmen in a tight game down the stretch far more than I trust John Calipari’s talented but inexperienced group of freshmen. Florida hits their free throws (77% for the season), always key in short spread games. Kentucky is at just 64% from the charity stripe over their last five games. And the Wildcats propensity for committing key turnovers at inopportune times is bad news against a Gators defense that forces them in bunches. Live dog here! Take Florida. |
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01-20-18 | Missouri v. Texas A&M -4.5 | 49-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Texas A&M (#602) On Christmas Day, Texas A&M was ranked as the #5 team in the country. Then the injury bug started to bite, and it bit hard. Of the ten players in Billy Kennedy’s base rotation, only two guys have been able to suit up in every game. Starters DJ Hogg, Admon Gilder, Duane Wilson and Robert Williams all missed time, and the Aggies faced a very difficult opening part of their SEC schedule. The end result from all those injuries? The Aggies are now sitting with a 1-5 record in SEC play. They’re at home. And they’re finally healthy again, coming off three strong days of practice sessions since their losing-streak snapping win over Ole Miss. And with all the key cogs healthy, let’s not forget how much playing time the role players have gotten in recent weeks; leaving the Aggies with depth, talent and the level of hunger that I’m looking for out of my home favorites. The Tigers have a matchup problem on both ends of the floor when it comes to protecting the basketball and valuing possessions. Their top point guard Blake Harris quit the team two weeks ago, leading to a situation where Missouri has a grand total of 57 assists in their five SEC games. The Tigers have been living on hot three point shooting, better than 40% from beyond the arc in their last five games. I’m not expecting anywhere near that level of shooting today against a focused, defensive minded Aggies squad. Take Texas A&M |
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01-20-18 | George Washington v. VCU -8 | Top | 63-87 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
10* Take VCU (#532). Sorry, no time for a detailed write-up for this early start game. This link should explain VCU's extra motivation today, while GWU has been blown out repeatedly on the highway, a team with a glass chin.... http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/schools/virginia-commonwealth-university/as-vcu-looks-to-break-out-of-lull-against-george/article_68df6290-86eb-55ae-a51b-af38473cbe62.html |
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01-18-18 | Washington +7 v. Utah | 62-70 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#565) One of the reasons why Syracuse is so good every year in non-conference play is because they face teams that aren’t familiar their 2-3 matchup zone. Without experience against this defense, mediocre offensive squads tend to wilt. Washington first year head coach Mike Hopkins was Jim Boeheim’s assistant at Syracuse for the previous 22 seasons. He took the Huskies job this past offseason and immediately started introducing Boeheim’s defensive concepts to his veteran squad, a team with four returning starters from last year. The results have been remarkable. Hopkins had the appropriate interior size and wingspans with the likes of Sam Timmins, Noah Dickerson and Hameir Wright. On-ball defender Matisse Thybulle is averaging more than three steals per game as they Huskies have forced an average of more than 16 turnovers every time they hit the court. The Huskies rank first in the PAC-12 in 3-point field goal percentage defense, first in blocked shots, second in steals and second in scoring defense .And the results have been remarkable, particularly on the highway, including a SU win in KC against Kansas, as well as SU wins at USC and Washington State. Hopkins, talking about his team’s defense: “Learning a new system, I might be surprised with how well they’ve adapted and adjusted and believed in the zone. We’re starting to get really good at it. I think there were some growing pains, but the way that they’ve responded with it has been probably the biggest surprise. But I think that’s been probably one of the biggest reasons we’ve been winning. But the Huskies are coming off a bad home loss to Stanford. Hopkins isn’t panicking. “We don’t have to change anything, we just have to execute better. You’re always gonna have your highs and lows, there’s always stages of the season…. Our mindset is to go down there (to Salt Lake City tonight) and if we execute and play our defense, we’ll have a chance to win the game. What we’re trying to do every game is you’re trying to put yourself in a position to have a chance to win the game, especially near the end. We’ve been really good in closing situations, we broke down a little bit against Stanford, and that happens.” Utah hasn’t seen this defense before, and the Utes are really struggling, suffering four straight losses since their 2-0 PAC-12 start. The Utes swept the Huskies last year, dominating both meetings. That being said, the three guys that put up double figures in both of those games(Kyle Kuzma, Devon Daniels, and Lorenzo Bonam) are all gone now. Live dog here! Take Washington. For further reading, check out these links from local sources: https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865695153/Strugglin-Runnin-Utes-determined-to-get-tougher-2-and-Tillmans-return-helps.html http://www.dailyuw.com/sports/article_25c240a4-fc02-11e7-bc3d-4389eb4897bc.html https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2018/01/17/huskies-rebuild-ahead-of-schedule-under-longtime-syracuse-assistant-mike-hopkins/ |
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