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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 54.5 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Dallas – Philadelphia OVER (#307-308) The Cowboys remain one of the strongest ‘Over’ teams in the NFL right now. Jason Garrett’s balanced offense has been extremely tough to stop all year. That’s not likely to change here with Tony Romo in stellar current form (71% completions and a 7-0 TD-INT ratio over his last two games) and DeMarco Murray continuing to find big holes to run through behind the Cowboys stellar offensive line. Dallas has scored 31+ in each of the last four games they’ve played with a healthy Romo. Meanwhile, Philly’s defense allowed 53 in their last road game against a strong offensive foe, at Green Bay two weeks ago; a stop unit that’s been vulnerable to big plays all season long. It’s surely worth noting that the Eagles have allowed 24 touchdown passes, third most in the NFL. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Eagles Over against Carolina 2 ½ weeks ago: “Like they were expected to do running Chip Kelly’s offense, the Eagles have played at the fastest offensive pace in the NFL this season, by a fairly wide margin. Philly averages running a play every 22.2 seconds. The #2 team in the league (the Patriots) gets a play off every 25.1 seconds; while the #32 team (San Diego) runs a play every 29.8 seconds. In other words, the Eagles offense is waaaay faster than anybody else in the NFL, leading to more plays, more drives and yes, more scoring opportunities.” The Eagles offense ran a whopping 83 plays last week despite being in control in a blowout win. Don’t expect a slower pace here! Meanwhile, the Eagles offense hasn’t skipped a beat since transitioning from Nick Foles to Mark Sanchez. No team in the NFL has scored more non-offensive touchdowns than Philly has this year, a team that consistently produces big plays from their defense and special teams. And the Cowboys defense was on the field for a season high 74 snaps last week against the Giants; bad news for a depth shy stop unit on a short week. Dallas has allowed 28+ twice in their last three games, and the third game came against hapless Jacksonville. Expect a Turkey Day shootout as this game flies Over the total! Take the Over. |
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11-18-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 200.5 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Take New Orleans – Sacramento Under (#707-708) The Pelicans have been facing uptempo opponents that don’t play much defense in every recent game, massively inflating their offensive numbers. New Orleans is coming off a Minnesota/LA Lakers/Cleveland trifecta, all strongly ‘offense first’ type squads. Last night in Portland, they stayed well Under the total against a non-uptempo team. New Orleans has certainly slowed down their offensive pace on the highway, averaging 14 fewer points per game than they do at home. And after blowing a second half lead in Portland last night, we’ve got this quote to consider from defensive stalwart Anthony Davis: “We've got to play better with the lead. We were kind of forcing up shots instead of settling the ball down." Expect another slower paced effort this evening. Sacramento has changed their philosophy completely in the Coach Malone era, hanging their hat on defensive effort. The transition from Isaiah Thomas to Darren Collison at point guard is a clear indicator of a slower pace. Collison’s quote stands out here: “If we don't play defense, it's going to be tough for us to win. We're laying our hats on the defensive end. We have good offensive players, but at the same time we want to be one of the best defensive teams when it's all said and done." Take the Under. |
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10-31-14 | Cincinnati v. Tulane OVER 58 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Take Tulane – Cincinnati OVER (#309-310) I could sum this write-up up in a single sentence: “Cincinnati can’t be totaled in the 50’s”. Frankly, it really is that simple. Now that Bearcats QB Gunner Kiel has been upgraded to ‘probable’ (bruised ribs), it’s time to pull the trigger before the markets adjust appropriately. Kiel is the real deal at QB, a Notre Dame transfer who was the #1 QB recruit in the nation before heading to South Bend. Green Wave defensive tackle Kenny Welcome: “He's pretty accurate. They throw it deep a lot and have some pretty reliable receivers that come down with it and he has trust in his receivers so that's also good." Kiel’s numbers certainly show that; averaging a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt (tied for #15 in the country) with 20 TD’s on the season, despite missing some time due to injury. The Bearcats have scored 28, 31 and 43 in three previous road games this season, more than capable of approaching or exceeding those numbers here. Tulane hasn’t seen ANY top notch QB’s this year, and they’re coming off a stretch of three consecutive games (and a bye) against ‘all defense, no offense’ teams: Rutgers, UConn and Central Florida that deflated their scoring averages. The Green Wave have starting QB Tanner Lee back in the lineup this week following a month off with a shoulder injury, improving their offense considerably from backup Nick Montana’s ‘nothing but dinks and dunks’ approach. Lee is expecting much better results than he had earlier in the season: "I've just got to stop taking so many hits. A lot of those hits are my fault—just not getting rid of the ball fast enough or trying to do too much and that's what I used this bye week for – a lot of self-evaluation and just going through all my plays over and over again until I realize all my options and how to get out of stuff." Tulane is a good running team and Cincinnati’s run defense has been gashed repeatedly this year, ranked #109 in the nation at stopping the run. Sherman Badie is a big play RB with home run potential, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Lee: “It's nice to have somebody who can get you out of a hole when you are backed up and Sherman can run off for 30 yards and it opens up so much.” Expect the Green Wave to run and the Bearcats to throw successfully all night long. Take the Over. |
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10-26-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers OVER 44.5 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -107 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle – Carolina OVER (#259-260) This total is waaay out of whack with the current realities of both teams. With beautiful fall weather expected in Charlotte on Sunday, that puts me squarely on the Over in a game that has ‘shootout’ written all over it. Let me start with an excerpt from my Panthers Over write-up from last week, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: The betting markets are still viewing Carolina as an ‘Under’ team like they were last year. That’s simply not the case in 2014. The Panthers can’t run the football conventionally, banged up at the running back position and getting very limited production from their stable of running backs. Their offense right now consists primarily of downfield throws from Cam Newton and very effective quarterback keepers. Now fully recovered from his offseason surgery, Newton is every bit as dangerous as he was last year. The Panthers had an elite, division winning defense last year. In 2014, the defense has been decimated by offseason losses in the secondary and the absence of top pass rusher Greg Hardy; suspended indefinitely. Carolina has allowed 37+ points four times in the last five weeks, while flying Over the total in all five of those ballgames. Their pass defense has been nothing short of awful during that span, bad news in a matchup this week against the elite Russell Wilson. Note that this Seahawks offense that ranks among the Top 5 offenses in the NFL with a 6.0 yards per play average AND they’ve got something to prove on Sunday following back-2-back defeats. But Seattle’s defense is not what it was last year; not even close. Their pass rush is non-existent, allowing preseason fourth stringer Austin Davis to complete 19 of 22 passes against them without a sack or a turnover in their loss at St Louis last week. Last year, Seattle’s defense allowed 59% completions. This year, that number has risen to 68%. Their sack percentage is less than half what it was in 2013. After losing key DL cogs Red Bryant, Chris Clemons and Clinton McDonald in free agency, there’s simply no depth on this defensive line anymore, and the Seahawks starters are clearly wearing down. Off a dismal showing in Green Bay last Sunday, Cam Newton and the Panthers passing game is primed to trade points with Seattle all afternoon long, sending this game up and over the total. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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10-25-14 | UMass v. Toledo OVER 71 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Toledo – UMass OVER (#149-150) UMass is the ultimate MAC Over team. In four conference games, the Minutemen have scored 36+ every time. QB Blake Frohnapfel has thrown 18 touchdown passes already and has 337 passing attempts, ranked among the top ten QB’s in the country in attempts, yards and TD’s. Star wideout Tajae Sharpe 890 receiving yards, good for fifth best in the nation; one of three different UMass receivers with at least four TD grabs. But for as good as the Minutemen passing game is, their defense is every bit as bad. UMass can’t get stops against mediocre foes, let alone a good MAC team like Toledo with an extra week to prepare. In their lone previous game totaled above 70 (against Bowling Green), the Minutemen scored 42 points and lost; one of three defeats this year in which they hung 38+ on their opponent but couldn’t get enough stops to win. Toledo has an offense that’s every bit as explosive as the UMass offense is, if not more. The Rockets certainly have better offensive balance than the Minutemen because they create big plays out of their running game. The Rockets top two backs (Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson) combine to average better than eight yards per carry! With an extra week to prepare, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Toledo hang half a hundred here, sending this game up and over the total. Take the Over. |
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10-25-14 | Maryland v. Wisconsin OVER 56 | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Maryland – Wisconsin OVER (#141-142) Wisconsin does only one thing well in 2014 – run the football with Melvin Gordon getting the lion’s share of the carries behind their massive offensive line. But with a 7.9 yards per carry average, more than 1000 rushing yards in six games and 13 rushing touchdown, that one thing the Badgers do well is VERY tough to stop. Maryland’s undersized front seven has been gashed repeatedly on the ground all year. In their last four games, the Terps have allowed more than 250 rushing yards per game. None of the teams they faced run the ball as well as Wisconsin. And the 83 points Maryland allowed to Ohio State and Iowa over the past two games tell us clearly that this defense is not anywhere close to being an elite stop unit. But the Terps are loaded with big play skill position talent; a strong offensive ballclub. Maryland has hung 34+ four times in their last five games, the lone exception coming in a four turnover debacle against Ohio State. CJ Brown is a dangerous dual threat QB. Stefon Diggs and Deon Long are both capable of turning a simple screen pass into a long touchdown catch, both speedy and elusive. The Badgers defense isn’t controlling the gameflow this year and they really haven’t faced a good pass offense all year. Look for a good handful of big play TD’s in this one, sending Maryland – Wisconsin flying Over the total. Take the Over. |
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10-19-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Green Bay Packers OVER 48.5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Green Bay – Carolina OVER (#461-462) The betting markets are still viewing Carolina as an ‘Under’ team like they were last year. That’s simply not the case in 2014. The Panthers can’t run the football conventionally, banged up at the running back position and getting very limited production from their stable of running backs. Their offense right now consists primarily of downfield throws from Cam Newton and very effective quarterback keepers. Now fully recovered from his offseason surgery, Newton is every bit as dangerous as he was last year. The Panthers had an elite, division winning defense last year. In 2014, the defense has been decimated by offseason losses in the secondary and the absence of top pass rusher Greg Hardy; suspended indefinitely. Carolina has allowed 37+ points three times in the last four weeks, while flying Over the total in all four of those ballgames. Their pass defense has been nothing short of awful during that span, bad news in a matchup this week against the ultra-elite Aaron Rodgers and a Packers offense that has scored 107 points in their last three contests. Green Bay, too, is trending Over, cashing Over bets in each of the last three weeks. The Packers defense struggled to keep Ryan Tannehill in the pocket last week ( 49 yards allowed on three rush attempts), and struggled in previous outings against mobile QB’s like Russell Wilson and Geno Smith, allowing 60 points to the Seahawks and Jets. Green Bay’s secondary certainly isn’t an elite unit this year, opening the door for big play opportunities from the Carolina passing game as well. Both teams played ‘shootout’ type ball games in Week 6, and I’m expecting more of the same in Week 7. Take the Over. |
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10-12-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 22 m | Show |
Take Dallas – Seattle Over (#271-272) On Monday Night in Washington, the Seahawks spent the entire game shooting themselves in the foot offensively with penalties, dropped passes and various other miscues. Yet when all was said and done, Seattle had hung 27 points on the Redskins defense while rushing for 225 yards. Russell Wilson threw only six incomplete passes. And this was an ‘off night’ for the offense! The betting markets aren’t truly respecting the fact that Seattle’s offense has improved by leaps and bounds compared to where it was last year. Percy Harvin is healthy. Marshawn Lynch is fresh. Russell Wilson’s confidence is sky high. Last year’s banged up offensive line has transformed into a relatively healthy unit in 2014. The 31 points per game that Seattle is averaging at home this year is not an aberration. In fact, I expect it to be a harbinger of things to come. The Cowboys defense ranks dead last in the NFL on a ‘yards per play’ basis, allowing 6.4 yards per snap. In their last road game, at St Louis, they were torched for 31 points against a team that hasn’t really moved the football effectively in any game before or since. Dallas cannot be trusted to get many stops here. But the Cowboys offensive line continues to play like an elite unit; blowing open holes for DeMarco Murray while giving Tony Romo time to throw. With three former first rounders paving the way, Dallas has matched Seattle’s 6.0 yards per play average on offense; good for fourth best in the NFL this year. The Seahawks did not fare well against San Diego’s power rushing attack, allowing 30 points and 26 first downs in that contest. If the Cowboys approach those type of numbers, this game will fly Over the total with ease and even if they don’t, the Seahawks offense is capable of getting us most of the way home anyway. Take the Over. |
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10-11-14 | TCU v. Baylor OVER 64.5 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Baylor – TCU OVER (#147-148) When these two teams met last year, the final score was 41-38. The year before, it was 49-21. In 2011, we saw a 50-48 shootout. All three of those games flew Over the total, and there’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different this time around. TCU’s offense is explosive, as we clearly saw last week when the Horned Frogs hung 37 points on 469 yards against mighty Oklahoma. Junior QB Trevone Boykin has guided his team to 30+ points in each of their first four games this year with a 10-2 TD – INT ratio. His ability to create big plays and key third down conversions with his legs has wreaked havoc on opposing stop units. Baylor nearly shut out Texas last week, but TCU ain’t Texas! In Waco, Baylor’s offense in the Bryce Petty era has truly been a thing of consistent beauty. The Bears scored 70 and 45 in their first two home games this year. Last year, they scored 69, 70, 70, 73, 71, 41 and 30 on this field. Petty is coming off the worst game of his collegiate career, and all reports indicate that he’s got more NFL upside than his predecessor, Robert Griffin III. I’m expecting a STRONG bounceback from Petty this week in a game that has ‘massive shootout’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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10-11-14 | Cincinnati v. Miami (Fla) OVER 57 | 34-55 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Miami – Cincinnati OVER (#133-134) Cincinnati hasn’t come close to stopping anybody this year. The Bearcats defense has allowed 91 points in their last two games alone, giving up more than 600 yards on the ground AND more than 600 yards through the air in those two contests. Miami was held to 17 points in their loss at Georgia Tech last week, and all the talk this week was about opening up the Hurricanes offense with more downfield passing, which should allow stud RB Duke Johnson to run wild. I’m expecting the ‘Canes to approach or exceed their season average at home, where they’ve scored just shy of 35 points per game. But Miami’s defense has shown plenty of vulnerability as well, and Tommy Tuberville has an offense that can score points in bunches, even without starting QB Gunner Kiel in the lineup. Backup Munchie Legaux was a multi-year starter for this squad and JUCO transfer Jarred Evans has been lighting it up in practice. It’s surely worth noting that Tuberville’s teams have scored 28+ 16 times in their last 27 ballgames, including three times in four games this year. Miami’s stop unit has allowed 28+ in three of their four games against ‘Big 5 Conference[ competition this year. No surprise here if this total gets obliterated rather early; a game that should fly Over the number. Take the Over. |
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10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos UNDER 48.5 | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Arizona Under (#469-470). These are both elite defenses, defenses that have no business being totaled in the upper 40’s. Neither offense is taking shots down the field, preferring slower, longer ‘chew up the clock’ type of drives. But those two factors together and the Under here is a clear choice. Peyton Manning isn’t taking many downfield shots at this stage of his career. The Broncos big plays on offense are usually caused by blown coverages or missed tackles. Arizona’s elite defense (only 5.0 yards per play allowed) doesn’t blow many coverages or miss many tackles, especially with extra time to prepare for Manning and company AND with Antonio Cromartie expected to return to the lineup following a knee injury. Let’s not forget that Indy’s longtime offensive coordinator Tom Moore is now drawing a paycheck from the Cardinals; arguably the one guy in the NFL who knows more about Manning’s weaknesses than anybody else. Arizona’s offense isn’t comparable with Denver’s by any stretch of the imagination, especially withdrew Stanton expected to start again for the injured Carson Palmer. We can expect a steady diet of Andre Ellington rush attempts here, with the occasional play action pass from the Cardinals backup QB. And the 2014 Denver defense has been dominant for extended stretches this season; far better than last year’s suspect and injury riddled stop unit. I’m expecting long, slow drives once again on Sunday, heling keep this game Under the total. Take the Under. |
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09-28-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Jacksonville – San Diego UNDER (#265-#266) Gus Bradley was in Seattle when the Seahawks started Russell Wilson as a rookie. Seattle’s offensive strategy with Wilson as a rookie was simple – pound the rock, rely on the defense to get stops and avoid egregious mistakes, especially on the road. The Seahawks won three of Wilson’s first five games as the starter. Most importantly, all five of those contests stayed Under the total, with all five games producing 34 points or less. Now Bradley is in Jacksonville. His defense certainly isn’t as good as it was in Seattle – hence the Jaguars 3-0 mark to the Over in their first three games, despite an offense that has been borderline inept. But Bradley has seen firsthand how to develop a positive situation with a young QB. His offensive line is in shambles, a truly miserable unit that allowed ten sacks in their last road game. The Jags receiving corps is as weak as any in the league. I’m not expecting Blake Bortles to be firing away downfield throughout this contest. Jacksonville is likely to take a very conservative approach with their franchise QB; not a game where we can expect them to put up points in bunches. And considering that the Jags have yet to score more than 17 points in a game, I’m not expecting a breakout effort here against a Chargers defense that has been rock solid, exceeding expectations from Day 1 this year. San Diego head coach Mike McCoy has shown us very clearly what we can expect San Diego’s gameplan to be when they have a lead. The Chargers played two games last year when they were favored by a TD or more; facing these same Jaguars and the Raiders as well. Both games produced 39 points or less. Both times, the Chargers built a comfortable lead, then milked the clock to shorten the game. Last week against Buffalo, we saw the exact same strategy from McCoy. San Diego took control of the game, then spent most of the second half running the ball up the gut, burning clock; content with punts as long as they consumed some gametime prior to that punt. Just as importantly, McCoy proved that he trusted his defense to hold the lead; not a guy who is in any hurry to run up the score. The Chargers 24-6 win over Jacksonville last year in a clear illustration of that fact. The game came in the midst of a stretch in which the Jags allowed 45, 37, 34, 35, and 42 points in the games just before and just after facing San Diego, with a defense that’s every bit as bad (if not worse) than this year’s version). Unlike those other teams, San Diego wasn’t about building up big stats in this game; just about notching the win and moving on to the next week. And this Chargers offense is all about ‘grind-it-out’ type six, seven or eight minute drives. They don’t have a single run from scrimmage longer than 20 yards all year, and only one reception of longer than 34 yards; all dink and dunk and third down conversions from this offense. We’re getting an inflated total based on the Jaguars dismal defense; but that doesn’t factor in San Diego’s clear strategy for games like this one! Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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09-27-14 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M OVER 71.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M – Arkansas OVER (#167-168) I’m not expecting either team to get many stops in this game. Last year’s meeting was a 45-33 shootout, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this time around…..except that Arkansas is a much better offensive team this year compared to the 2013 version. Texas A&M is going to do what they do. Kevin Sumlin’s offenses don’t get slowed down very often. The Aggies scored 41 or more points in each of their first ten games last year before injuries and attrition finally slowed them down at the end of the regular season. They bounced back in their bowl game, putting 52 points on the board. It’s been more of the same for Texas A&M even in the post Johnny Manziel era. QB Kenny Hill has stepped in for Manziel and the offense hasn’t missed a beat. They hung 52 on a decent SEC defense in their opener, beating up on South Carolina. Since that time, they’ve scored 58+ twice in three games, playing at a frenetic pace designed to limit defensive substitutions while paving the way for quick strike touchdowns. Hill’s stats are eye-popping: 13 TD’s with only one interception, 70% completions, 9.8 yards per pass attempt. Five different Aggies WR’s have TD catches of 25 yards or more; four other receivers have 20+ yard receptions as well. The Aggies have all of those passing yards AND they’ve averaged 200+ on the ground. Hill’s quote: “We're just going to keep playing the way we have been and prove to everybody that we can play.” Even though Arkansas has already seen a couple of uptempo spread offenses, they didn’t shut either one down, and Sumlin’s offense just might be the best of the bunch. Gus Malzahn’s Auburn offense hung 45 points on nearly 600 yards against them; numbers that would have and could have been higher had the Tigers needed fourth quarter points. We tend to think of Arkansas as a plodding, ball control, run first offense, based on Brett Bielema’s track record at Wisconsin and his first season coaching the Hogs last year. Some of that is true – this is a run-first attack. But to think of Arkansas as ‘ball control’ is not appropriate in 2014. In fact, the Razorbacks lead the nation with TEN touchdowns on drives of a minute or less this year. Arkansas has all kinds of big play ability at running back, bad news for an Aggie defense that hasn’t fared well against power rushing offenses at any point in the Sumlin era. Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams have 12 rushing touchdowns between them already, both guys averaging better than seven yards per carry. That’s how the Hogs have hung73, 49 and 52 points in their last three ballgames – nothing ‘plodding’ about that! And all of that rushing success has really opened things up for the Razorbacks passing game. Second year QB starter Brandon Allen is waaaaaay better than he was last year, including an 8-1 TD –INT ratio and a 7.9 yards per pass attempt average. And that’s why Arkansas is 4-0 to the Over in their first four games; an under-the-radar streak worth riding here. Expect a highly entertaining shootout in a game primed to FLY over the total. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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09-26-14 | Middle Tennessee State v. Old Dominion OVER 67 | Top | 41-28 | Win | 100 | 57 h 1 m | Show |
Take Old Dominion - Middle Tennessee St OVER (#109-110). It’s not hard to make a case for any Old Dominion game to go Over a total in the 60’s. The Monarchs are absolutely built for shootouts. Their senior QB, Taylor Heinicke, will be the first player in the history of the ODU program to get drafted next spring. Heinicke has an NFL caliber arm, no question, quite capable of torching C-USA defenses like he did last week when he threw for 430 yards and five TD’s at defending conference champions Rice. Five different Monarch receivers have a catch of longer than 40 yards this year, and their running game has been explosive as a result: 101 carries for their running backs, producing well over 600 yards of offense. The only comparable attack that Middle Tennessee’s defense has faced this year was against Western Kentucky; a game that produced 97 points by triple OT, but went Over the total in regulation. The Blue Raiders defense allowed 43 completions for 593 yards in that ballgame against a QB and WR’s that are no better than what Old Dominion brings to the table. But Old Dominion’s defense is every bit as bad as their offense is good. In their first full year as a D-1A program, the Monarchs have a truly undersized defense that lacks speed, talent or confidence. Rice QB Driphus Jackson missed an extended portion of their game against ODU last week, but when he was in the game, the Owls scored TD’s six times in seven drives. That makes this quote from head coach Bobby Wilder even more pertinent: “Their quarterback Austin Grammer is a good athlete. He’s similar in his style of play to Driphus Jackson who we just saw last week with Rice. He’s a good thrower, he’s good running the ball. They’ll run designed runs with him, and he scrambles very well. He has the ability, like Taylor does, to scramble and still keep his eyes down the field. So he’s a dangerous player at quarterback. At running back they’ve got four really good players. “They play four running backs, they can run the ball well, protect the quarterback, and they catch the ball out of the back field, so you have to keep an eye on them, similar to our running backs. They’ll come out of the backfield and they’ll run routes. Wide receivers, tight ends, o-line, they’re all very good players. There’s a reason why they’ve been successful two years in a row offensively. They’ve got good scheme and then there is always a wrinkle, there’s always something each week that they’ll do to attack you in a different area.” That’s a coach who is clearly worried about his defense’s ability to force stops here…and I don’t blame him. I’m quite certain that Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill is equally concerned about his own defense. When both coaches are worried about getting stops, both coaches are likely to put the pedal to the metal when it comes to their offensive gamplan. No surprise here if the loser approaches or exceeds the five TD mark on a beautiful night in Norfolk on Friday. Take the Over. |
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09-20-14 | UNLV v. Houston OVER 62 | 14-47 | Loss | -118 | 33 h 40 m | Show | |
Take UNLV - Houston OVER (#359-360). UNLV’s defense hasn’t allowed fewer than 30 points per game since 2007, a consistently poor stop unit. That number is not likely to improve this year if we can believe what we’ve seen from the Rebels in their first two games against D-1A competition, allowing 58 points to Arizona and 48 to Northern Illinois. Arizona gained 787 yards against UNLV, Northern Illinois had 616; each squad moving the ball at will, both on the ground and through the air. There’s no reason to think that Houston won’t be capable of hanging six or seven TD’s on the Rebels this week. The Cougars have already faced a pair of strong stop units (Texas San Antonio and BYU), taking a major step down in class here. In their last seven tries as double digit favorites dating back to 2012 – the stat of the Tony Levine era -- the Cougars have hung 44, 39, 45, 40, 62, 35 and 47 points on their foes. QB John O’Korn completed 30 passes against the stout BYU stop unit on the road last week, throwing for more than 300 yards and three TD’s without an interception. Leading rusher Kenneth Farrow is averaging just shy of seven yards per carry. Playmaking wideouts Deontay Greenberry, Danny Spencer and Greg Ward are all capable of taking it to the end zone if they get the ball in space. UNLV is NOT primed to slow down Houston, not even a little bit. But the Rebels do have one strength – their receiving corps. QB Blake Decker threw for 397 yards last week. WR Devante Davis, like his counterparts on the Houston sideline, is a big play waiting to happen. Devonte Body has similar big play capability. Houston’s defense strength certainly isn’t their secondary. Expect a real shootout here, with both squads lighting up the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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09-20-14 | Tulane v. Duke OVER 57.5 | 13-47 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Duke - Tulane OVER (#327-328). There’s something new in Durham this football season. It’s not Duke’s success. David Cutcliffe took this long moribund program to the ACC title game last December and coaxed ten wins out of his squad; not bad for a program that had won seven or more games only three times in the previous 50 years. But this year, Duke has legitimate skill position playmakers, guys that turn missed tackles into touchdowns. RB Shaun Wilson has 334 rushing yards on 21 carries, enjoying a coming out party against Kansas last Saturday. QB Anthony Boone isn’t just dinking and dunking, with 35+ yard TD passes to Max McCaffrey, Jamison Crowder and Isaac Blakeney already. Behind a veteran offensive line, the Blue Devils have averaged more than 40 points per game in their first three contests. They hung 48 on Tulane the last time these two teams met (in 2011), and that was a much less explosive offense than the one they have in 2014. Tulane is 3-0 to the Over in early season play, allowing 38 points to both D-1A foes that they faced (Tulsa and Georgia Tech); gashed both on the ground and through the air. But like Cutcliffe, Tulane head coach Curtis Johnson has found himself some real playmakers on offense this year. RB Sherman Badie is averaging more than nine yards per carry. WR’s Justyn Shackelford and Xavier Rush have caught five TD passes and average more than 20 yards per reception between them. Facing a Duke defense forced to play with freshman at LB and CB, I’m expecting both of these squads to get their fair share of points in this one. Take the Over. |
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09-13-14 | Nebraska v. Fresno State OVER 62 | 55-19 | Win | 100 | 36 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska – Fresno OVER (#201-202) Here’s an excerpt from my Big Ticket write-up in support of Utah (against Fresno) last week talking about the Bulldogs defense: “Fresno’s defense is a mess right now. They were on the field for 103 plays against USC last weekend without forcing a punt. The Bulldogs weren’t a good defensive team last year, allowing more than 30 points per game, and their defensive line was decimated by graduation losses. I’m certainly not convinced that they can force many punts this week either.” That prediction proved correct. Fresno didn’t force many punts last week either, as Utah moved the football up and down the field like a hot knife through butter, scoring 59 points on more than 500 yards of offense. Even those results are misleading, because, quite literally, Utah could have scored on every possession had they maintained their intensity throughout. Nebraska can be expected to maintain their intensity throughout this ballgame after last week’s debacle against McNeese State, in which they needed an Ameer Abdullah TD scamper in the closing seconds to avoid overtime against an FCS foe. Bo Pelini hasn’t been shy about running up scores in non-conference affairs, hanging 37+ in seven of their last eight tries against Non-Big Five conference foes. Fresno allowed 50+ in each of their first two games and there’s little reason to think that Nebraska won’t approach the 50 point mark this week either. But Nebraska’s defense can’t be trust to get stops, particularly on the highway, and Fresno’s offense is primed for a breakout game as they return home and step down in class. Head coach Tim DeRuyter takes ‘big play’ shots repeatedly, and we can expect Fresno to throw deep early and often. QB’s Brandon Connette and Brian Burrell aren’t early round NFL draft choices like last year’s QB Derek Carr was, but a home game against a lesser defense should work wonders for this offenses’s ability to produce points in bunches. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 46.5 | Top | 17-18 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 30 m | Show |
Take Arizona – San Diego OVER (#491-492) San Diego’s head coach Mike McCoy is an exceptional offensive mind, and he transformed QB Philip Rivers career in 2013 by designing an offense that fit his signal caller’s strengths. Rivers finished the season with more than 4400 passing yards, 69% completions, a 32-11 TD-INT ratio and a QB rating of 105. There’s no reason to expect any sort of drop-off in 2014, especially with every starter on the offensive line returning for 2014. But the Chargers defense is notably weak both on the line and in the secondary, a pair of suspect units entering the new campaign. Arizona’s defense was elite last year. I’m not convinced it’ll be elite from the get-go in 2014 without key defensive cogs Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington and potentially Tyrann Mathieu in the lineup. But we can be confident that the Cardinals offense will improve in Year 2 under Bruce Arians, because their offensive line has been upgraded rather significantly thanks to the addition of left tackle Jared Veldheer and the return to health of last year’s #1 draft choice Jonathan Cooper. That should give Carson Palmer time to air it out against a suspect secondary, always good news for Over bettors. San Diego went 4-0 to the Over in non-conference games last year, producing 48 points or more in all four contests. That stands in sharp contrast to their 3-9 mark to the Under against AFC foes. Arizona went 4-0 to the Over in non-conference games as well, getting into the 50’s in three of those four games; compared to a 4-8 mark to the Under against NFC foes. I’m expecting a wide open gameplan from a pair of explosive passing teams. Take the Over. |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 80 h 25 m | Show |
Take Seattle - Green Bay OVER (#461-462). There are three key factors to consider here. First and foremost is the Seahawks dramatically improved downfield passing game. Secondly, we’re about to see the impact of the new rules changes on good passing teams. And third, Aaron Rodgers and the physical Packers receivers are far more likely to have success against the Seahawks elite secondary than Peyton Manning and Denver’s ‘soft’ WR’s. Let’s start with Seattle’s upgraded passing game. The Seahawks offense has been a ‘run-first’ unit in each of Russell Wilson’s first two years. That’s not the case for 2014. With a healthy Percy Harvin, a field stretcher in impressive rookie Paul Richardson, and quality depth with the likes of Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Zack Miller, Seattle is suddenly loaded with big play weapons. Throw in a heavy dose of uptempo, no-huddle offense (something they worked on extensively this August), and we can project the Seahawks offense to put up points in bunches, especially against a suspect Packers secondary; a Green Bay defense that relies heavily on blitzing tactics. Wilson’s quotes: “The passing game is already improving and revolving….I think that we have the right guys. I think the receiving group looks really, really good right now. They are so clear minded. They run great routes, they are very precise, catch the football really well, explosive….To have Percy out there, he’s very, very fast and very quick. He makes a difference in our special teams games in kickoff returns. When he has the football in his hands people get a little nervous I feel like. You just kind of get that sense. Having his presence out there on the football field it’s a very good thing for us. He can make a lot of plays, he’s done it his whole entire career.” The Packers are much better suited to have success in their passing game than Denver was in their ugly Super Bowl loss to Seattle. The Packers receiving corps is big and physical, not guys who shy away from contact in the Seahawks ‘bump and run’ single coverage schemes. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, Green bay averaged more than four TD’s per game last year, including a 28 point outburst in their season opener against the 49ers elite defense, a game that flew Over the total by two touchdowns. The NFL’s offseason ‘point of emphasis’ on physical cornerback play led to a bevy of preseason defensive penalties. Illegal contact, defensive holding and pass interference calls are up by more than 50% compared to last year, naturally resulting in an increase in scoring. This point of emphasis was instituted by the league, in part, as a reaction to Seattle’s defensive physicality last year. I’m not expecting them to get the benefit of the doubt on many calls here, opening the door for a good, old fashioned Thursday Night Shootout! Take the Over. |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers v. Washington State OVER 61 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
Take Rutgers – Washington State OVER (#143-144) We’ve got two uptempo, high octane, pass-first offenses. We’ve got two mediocre defenses with notably suspect secondaries. And we’ve got a total in the low 60’s (it can’t possibly hold at 61 for much longer, hence the early release time on Monday). Put it all together and this game screams ‘shootout’! Washington State has a truly prolific passing game under head coach Mike Leach. The Cougars return third year starting senior QB Connor Halliday (more than 4500 passing yards last year) and his top eight receivers. The Cougars don’t let time tick off the clock running the football. Halliday averaged more than 60 pass attempts per game over his last eight contests last year, while the team averaged fewer than 20 rushing attempts per game. Given Leach’s track record, there’s no reason to expect anything different here in 2014. Rutgers has a returning senior starter at QB of their own in Gary Nova. He hired one of the brighter offensive minds in college football, former Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen, as his new coordinator. Nova had interception problems last year, but there’s no questioning his ‘big play’ arm strength and the Scarlet Knights have solid skill position talent around him. In 2012, five different members of the Rutgers secondary made it to an NFL training camp. Last year, Rutgers allowed a school record 4580 passing yards. New defensive coordinator Joe Rossi: “The guys that we put out there last year as freshmen, that were playing as true freshmen … they got a lot of great experience in game situations and that’s only going to benefit them. They’re still early in their progression, though.” The Scarlet Knights have suffered some key injuries in camp as well, forcing Justin Goodwin, a converted running back, into a starting role in the secondary. Head coach Kyle Flood is likely to rotate cornerbacks in and out of the game throughout, never a good sign. Washington State isn’t exactly loaded with defensive talent either; bad news with Rutgers returning every key player on their rock solid offensive line. The Cougars allowed 30+ in more than half of their games last year and lost five of their top eight players in the secondary to graduation, a suspect unit right from the get-go. Seven of Wassou’s last nine games in 2013 produced 66 points or more. Rutgers was a much lower scoring team, but in five games against pass heavy offenses, the Scarlet Knights allowed 52, 52, 49, 52 and 41 points; getting up and over the total each time. Expect Thursday Night fireworks in this one! Take the Over. |
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04-02-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Indiana Pacers OVER 191 | Top | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Indiana – Detroit OVER (#505-506)
The last time the Pistons faced the Pacers, the teams were tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. The Pistons hung 101 on Indiana in an outright upset win in the previous meeting, another Over cash. The first meeting between these two teams this year also flew Over the total. And tonight’s game has all the makings of another relatively high scoring affair. The Pistons aren’t playing defense but they are pushing the tempo, going Over 207 in their last game against the Bucks and Over 201.5 in their previous game against Philly. Since the All Star break, on the road, Detroit has allowed 116, 120, 118, 114, 118, 101, 118, 98, 112, 94 and 123 points in their eleven games, cashing seven Over bets in the process. Nine of those eleven games would have FLOWN over tonight’s posted total. Plain and simple, Detroit isn’t playing any defense, particularly away from home. The Pacers are in desperation mode on the offensive end of the court right now, the lowest scoring team in the league in the month of March. In their last six games, Indiana’s high point total has been 84, held in the 70’s on five different occasions during that span. Of course, they’ve played more than a few solid defensive teams during that span, including Chicago, Memphis, San Antonio and Miami. Detroit is not a solid defensive team, by any stretch of the imagination. Off a miserable blowout loss to the Spurs on this floor on Monday Night, tonight’s matchup against Detroit is the perfect elixir for the Pacers recent offensive struggles. And after the Pacers have cashed nine consecutive Under bets, there’s legitimate value betting them Over the total here in a game that I don’t expect to be a sweat! Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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03-28-14 | Michigan State v. Virginia OVER 127 | 61-59 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Michigan St
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03-19-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Denver Nuggets OVER 220 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Take Denver
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03-15-14 | George Washington v. VCU OVER 139 | Top | 55-74 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
Take VCU - GWU OVER (#525-526)
Virginia Commonwealth and George Washington have played five previous games over the last four years. All five of those games have flown Over the total, including a 92-75 Rams win when these two teams squared off last month, a game that cashed Over tickets with 28 points to spare! The key to both earlier meetings this season flying Over the total was free throw attempts; 101 of them in the two meetings. It |
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03-14-14 | Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 130.5 | Top | 43-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Colorado
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03-02-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Phoenix Suns OVER 216 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Take Phoenix
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02-18-14 | Texas v. Iowa State OVER 154 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Take Texas
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02-06-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Golden State Warriors OVER 189.5 | Top | 87-102 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Take Golden State
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos OVER 56 | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots OVER 51 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
Take New England
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12-01-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Buffalo Bills OVER 46.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta
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11-22-13 | Navy v. San Jose State OVER 58.5 | Top | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take San Jose St
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