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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-28-16 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay – Boston OVER (#911-912) Chris Archer is supposed to be an ace, and the betting markets afford him significant respect. And while Archer’s advanced metric number show that he should be a notch or two better this year, his results have been consistently mediocre….at best. The results don’t lie. Tampa is 5-11 in Chris Archer’s 16 previous starts this season on the heels of a 7-11 finish in his last 18 starts in 2015. In his last nine trips to the hill, Archer has allowed 4, 4, 3, 3, 5, 4, 6, 2 and 4 runs; not exactly ‘ace’ level performances. In his lone previous start against the Red Sox this year, Archer was blasted for six earned runs in 4.1 innings. In fact, he’s failed to reach the sixth inning in each of his last three starts against the Red Sox. The Rays bullpen behind Archer has really struggled over the past two week during the Rays 1-11 slide, not a trustworthy unit in the latter stages of the game. And Boston continues to hit as well as any team in baseball, pounding out six runs or more four times in their last six ballgames, including in the series opener last night. The Rays broke out of an offensive funk with a six run effort on Saturday, following that up with 18 runs scored over the past two days, cashing three straight Over tickets by 5.5 runs or more – none of them were even close. That’s bad news for Rick Porcello and the overworked Red Sox bullpen behind him. Boston’s bullpen is an absolute disaster area right now – their last four starters have combined to record only one out past the fifth inning and just about every reliever John Farrell has at his disposal carries a high fatigue rating into tonight’s game. Tampa has hit Porcello hard, only one of Porcello’s last nine starts has produced less than eight total runs. Take the Over. |
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06-27-16 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Arizona OVER (#957-958) If you’ve been reading my write-ups all baseball season, you already know exactly what I’m looking for when betting games Over the total. I want two hot lineups and two overworked bullpens. And that’s exactly what we’ve got at Chase Field this evening. The Phillies bats were ice cold when thy faced the D-backs at home ten days ago, scoring only five runs in the four game series. Those bats have clearly woken up on this road trip, scoring 36 runs in six games while going 5-1 to the Over. And while the Phillies full season numbers show a truly dismal offense, when you break it down into home and road splits, they’re not nearly as anemic on the highway. On the road, this has been a middle of the pack lineup when it comes to OPS and run production, leading to a consistent run of road Overs (4-1 to the Over on their previous road trip). Arizona starter Robbie Ray is no ace, and he’s got sharp home/road splits as well – a 3.50 road ERA, compared to a 5.89 ERA here at Chase Field. It was the exact same story last year for Ray: 4.88 at home, 2.49 on the road. Clearly, this is the venue to fade him in. And Arizona’s bullpen behind him is completely gassed off their wild series at Coors over the weekend. But the D-backs lineup is clicking, pounding out six runs or more in all four games at Coors over the weekend. They beat up the Phillies staff for 22 runs in their four game set at Citizens Bank Ballpark last week. Don’t expect Philadelphia starter Vince Velasquez to stem the tide tonight in his first start off the DL with a biceps strain. Velasquez’s last quality start came back on May 1st, and his splits are even uglier than Robbie Ray’s, with a road ERA of 5.79 compared to his 1.24 ERA at home. The Phillies bullpen behind him ranks #26 in MLB in ERA and they’re not fresh off Aaron Nola’s short stint yesterday. With the markets pushing this total DOWN in early betting action, I have no hesitation fading the steam; expecting another high scoring Slugfest. Take the Over. |
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06-24-16 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota - New York Yankees OVER (#917-918). My clients and I have been riding this remarkable Twins Over run on a consistent basis over the last two weeks. And there’s absolutely no reason to jump off the single most Under-The-Radar betting trend of the entire first half of the MLB season tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Twins Over write-up (it’s been serving us well), with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities.
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06-23-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Colorado – Arizona OVER (#959-960) It’s not often that you see Zack Greinke starting a game with a total of 11. Greinke is 9-5 to the Under this year, despite every one of his previous starts being lined at 9 or less. He had only one start lined with a total higher than 8 for the entire season last year. Of course that one game was right here in the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field, a game lined at O/U 10 which finished with a 9-8 final score, flying Over the total with plenty of room to spare. In fact, the Rockies have consistently hit Greinke, particularly here at Coors. In five starts in Denver since 2013, Greinke has a 5.17 ERA with the Rockies batting .354 against him. Those are BY FAR the worst numbers Greinke has put up at any park during that span where he’s pitched more than once. Colorado also faced Greinke twice earlier this season at Chase Field in Arizona. Neither of those starts was pretty for the D-backs ace either: 17 hits and nine earned runs allowed in just 11 innings of work. Colorado is hitting, pounding out eight runs in each of their just concluded two game series in the Bronx against the Yankees. They averaged seven runs per game on their last homestand and 6.5 runs per game on their previous homestand. As we’ve seen more than once this season, the potent Rockies lineup is more than capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves, particularly given the consistent struggles of the Arizona bullpen behind Grienke But the Rockies pitching staff, top to bottom, is in terrible shape tonight, very bad news for a team that has allowed opponents to score nine runs or more an MLB high 15 times already this season. Starter Eddie Butler is a true ‘bottom tier’ MLB starter, forced into action here only because Tyler Chatwood went on the DL. Butler was booted from the starting rotation after allowing 15 earned runs in a 15 inning span over three starts in late May and early June. Since his demotion to the bullpen following his last start on June 7th, Butler has pitched only once, getting lit up for nine hits and six earned runs in 3.1 innings of a long relief effort at Miami. Eddie Butler is NOT a prime candidate to deliver a shutdown effort tonight, especially when we consider that his career ERA at Coors is just shy of 7.00. To make matters worse for both pitching staffs, it’s hitter’s weather in Colorado this evening, with warm temperatures and a steady wind blowing out to right center. In a game featuring two suspect starters and two overworked bullpens facing off against two potent lineups, this is one time where Zack Greinke is worth betting Over in a game totaled at 11…… Take the Over. |
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06-21-16 | Phillies v. Twins OVER 8 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Minnesota OVER (#977-978) To say that the Twins have been trending Over of late is something of an understatement. Minnesota is 13-1-1 to the Over in their last 15 ballgames. My clients and I cashed a pair of winners betting the Twins Over the total last week. Here’s an extended excerpt from my last write-up about the Twins, with numbers adjusted to mesh with current realities. “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now! “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 13-1-1 to the Over in a 15 game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch. That’s where I’m at with Minnesota right now. “ Twins starter Tyler Duffey has been nothing short of awful in recent weeks, a bottom tier starter on a last place team. Duffey has allowed 6, 6, 4, 5, 5 and 6 runs in his last six starts, finishing the sixth inning only once during that span while going 5-0-1 to the Over. The Twins bullpen behind him has been a disaster area all year. The Phillies pitching has been so bad that despite scoring three runs or less nine times in their last dozen ballgames they’re still trending Over the total during that span (8-4 to the Over). Starter Aaron Nola has been lit up twice in a row, allowing twelve runs in just 6.2 innings of work, failing to last through the fourth inning either time. The Phillies exhausted bullpen hasn’t had a day off since June 9th, primed to pour gas on any late inning fires should we need it! Take the Over. |
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06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 207 | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 32 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Golden State UNDER (#513-514) History matters when it comes to Game 7 of the NBA Finals. There have been four previous Game 7’s since 1990 (the modern era of the NBA). In 2013, the Heat beat the Spurs 95-88. In 2010, the Lakers beat the Celtics 83-79. In 2005, the Spurs beat the Pistons 81-74. And in 1994, the Rockets beat the Knicks 90-84. All four of those games had two things in common – they were all tight contests, and they were all low scoring affairs that stayed UNDER the total with room to spare. It’s surely worth noting that the 206.5 posted for Game 7 this year is, by far, the highest total of that bunch. The Warriors just played a Game 7 in their last series against Oklahoma City. The 96-88 final score in that contest stayed 35 points under the total. What about LeBron in Game 7’s? His last two in Miami – against the Spurs and Pacers – both stayed Under the total with room to spare. His previous two – one in 2012 against the Celtics, and one in 2008, with Cleveland also against the Celtics – both produced less than 190 points. Obviously, past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future results. But when we see track records like this – from both teams and from LeBron in previous stops – combined with a total that’s on par with what we’ve seen in the series (not shaded lower for Game 7), there’s only one way I can look. Everybody has tired legs, the intensity here will be off the charts, and I’m not expecting much flow on the offensive end for either squad. This game might be the highest rated contest on TV of the season, but I’m not expecting a showcase of pretty, efficient offensive basketball. Take the Under |
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06-19-16 | Yankees v. Twins OVER 9 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – New York Yankees OVER (#969-970) To say that the Twins have been trending Over of late is something of an understatement. Minnesota is 12-1-1 to the Over in their last 14 ballgames. Here’s an extended excerpt from what I wrote about the Twins when cashing an Over ticket with them earlier in the week: “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now! “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 9-0-1 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch. That’s where I’m at with Minnesota right now. “ Twins starter Ervin Santana has been lit up in each of his last three starts, 0-3 with a 7.79 ERA here in June. The Twins woeful bullpen behind him took another loss yesterday. They haven’t had a day off to rest and recuperate in 13 days. That’s bad news against a hot Yankees lineup that has pounded out 32 runs over the first five games of this road trip. Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi is in a rut, coming off three consecutive lousy outings of his own (while cashing three consecutive Over bets with room to spare). Eovaldi has given up five homers in that three game span, bad news against a Twins team that went yard four times yesterday. It’s surely worth noting that untouchable Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman gave up two of those four dingers in a 28 pitch effort yesterday…. Minnesota and New York have played a series of Slugfests in recent seasons, 8-2 to the Over in the last ten meetings. On a 90 degree afternoon in Minnesota, look runs in bunches from both of these squads. Take the Over. |
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06-18-16 | Nationals v. Padres OVER 7 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Take San Diego – Washington OVER (#909-910) The first two games of this series have produced 12 and 13 runs, both flying Over the total with relative ease. And there’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different on Saturday Night! Washington’s potent lineup is on fire right now. The Nats have scored five runs or more nine times in their last dozen games, pounding out 15 runs in the first two games of this series. In fact, Washington has gone Over the total or come within a run of exceeding the total BY THEMSELVES in seven of those last dozen contests. That’s bad news for Colin Rea and the struggling Padres bullpen behind him. Rea has only one quality start in his last six trips to the hill. Opposing teams have scored 13, 3, 16, 9, 5, 8, 4 and 15 runs in his previous eight home starts, an AVERAGE of more than nine per contest. This rookie hurler is really struggling right now, lit up by light hitting Miami in his last start. Behind him, the Padres bullpen continues to struggle, ranked #27 in MLB in bullpen ERA. Can San Diego get anything going offensively against Max Scherzer tonight? I’m willing to bet that they can! After all, Scherzer, like Rea, has been cashing Over bets all year; a pair of starters that have cashed Overs at a combined 65% clip this year. Scherzer is coming off a ‘max intensity’ start, in revenge mode against the NL Central leading Cubs – I’m not convinced he’ll have his ‘A’ level stuff working tonight. And the Padres lineup is hitting – they’ve scored five or more in each of their last three games, while going 4-1 to the Over on their current homestand. Home plate ump Brian Knight has cashed more Overs than Unders while calling balls and strikes in each of the last two seasons. On an unseasonably warm evening in Southern California, look for some offensive fireworks at Petco! Take the Over. |
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06-17-16 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Seattle OVER (#967-968) The Boston Red Sox have been a consistent Over team from Day 1 this season – only five teams have cashed a higher percentage of Over bets (Twins, Pirates, Reds, Cardinals & Tigers). I don’t expect that to change tonight against a pitcher who they have feasted on. Mariners hurler Hisashi Iwakuma is 9-4 to the Over in his first 13 starts of the season. And his track record against Boston is downright ugly. In four previous career starts against the Red Sox, Iwakuma has only lasted a combined 15 innings while giving up 30 hits and 18 runs. Boston sluggers David Ortiz, Brock Holt and Dustin Pedroia have combined to hit .432 against him. Iwakuma’s flyball ways are a bad fit for Fenway Park; with the third highest OPS of any ballpark in MLB this season, behind only Coors Field and Chase Field in Arizona -- two places where the ball really carries. The Red Sox lead MLB in literally just about every offensive category – runs scored, batting average, hits, total bases, extra base hits, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS – you name it! They’ve scored five or more runs 12 times in their last 18 games, and have AVERAGED more than 6.5 runs per game following a rare ‘off night’ offensively (held to one run against Baltimore yesterday). It’s hard to picture Iwakuma having much success against this lineup tonight. Seattle’s bullpen behind Iwakuma is not in great shape following short stints from starters Karns and Walker in their just concluded series at the Trop in Tampa. Seattle’s been hitting too, and they’ll get to face a guy who they’ve got a pretty good scouting report on this evening in Roenis Elias. Elias was drafted by Seattle, went through their minor league system and made 51 starts for them in 2014 and 2015. He pitched well at AAA, but Elias has pitched well at AAA before; not so well at the big league level. The only reason he’s even here is because of Clay Buchholz’s struggles. In his last two big league appearances, Elias has been rocked to the tune of eleven hits, five walks and seven earned runs allowed in just 3.2 innings of work. Expect fireworks! Take the Over |
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06-15-16 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Take Minnesota – LA Angels OVER (#971-972) In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now! When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 9-0-1 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch. That’s where I’m at with Minnesota right now. Their pitching has been bad all year, and that doesn’t change with Tyler Duffey on the hill – he’s allowed 26 earned runs in 28 innings over his last five starts, finishing the sixth inning only once during that span. The Twins bullpen behind him ranks #26 in ERA and most assuredly isn’t fresh after the beating they took from the Red Sox last weekend – they’ve had only one off day since May 26th. But the Twins lineup is hitting: 13 runs in the first two games here in LA; four runs or more in eight of their last ten during this 9-0-1 run to the Over. Don’t expect that to change tonight against struggling lefty Hector Santiago, who hasn’t made it out of the third inning three times in his last five outings. Minnesota Overs are worth riding here…… Take the Over. |
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06-07-16 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Colorado – LA Dodgers OVER (#959-960) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Rockies offense last night, cashing a plus price ticket on Colorado. Tonight, with Eddie Butler on the hill for the Rockies, a cannot make a case for backing them, even at a big plus price. That being said, the way the Rockies are hitting right now makes this game worthy of an Over wager in a game primed to be a high scoring Slugfest. The Rockies pounded out ten runs at Petco on Sunday and six more in LA last night, getting production from all over their lineup. This offense is no joke, ranked #3 in the NL in runs scored; #2 in batting average and OPS, showing far more potency away from Coors Field than they did in either of the last two seasons. Dodgers phenom Julio Urias has nasty stuff, but he’s gotten lit up in each of his first two big league starts: 7.2 innings of work, 8 runs and 18 baserunners allowed. Even if Urias turns it around tonight, he’s not going to go deep into the game and the Dodgers bullpen behind him is spotty, suffering ten losses already this season. Eddie Butler is a bottom tier MLB starting pitcher. He’s 6-14 with a 5.93 ERA in 25 starts with the Rockies over the last three years. The advanced metric stats don’t show much promise – his strikeout rate is the lowest among any MLB starter with at least 100 innings pitched over the last three seasons, while his flyball rate is waaaay too high to be sustainable at the big league level. In three previous starts at Dodger Stadium, Butler has allowed 11 runs in only 12.1 innings of work. Current Dodgers have a .397 batting average and a 1.036 OPS against him. And the Rockies bullpen behind him ranks #26 in ERA, opening the door for some late inning shenanigans, should we need them. Take the Over. |
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06-05-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 208 | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 38 m | Show |
Take Cleveland - Golden State OVER (#503-504) Let’s be real about this — Game 1 was a weird game. The refs swallowed their whistles, with only 33 fouls called and 30 free throw attempts for the entire game. The Warriors All Star backcourt duo of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson had their lowest scoring game of the entire year (when healthy). Neither team pushed the pace. Neither team shot well from three point range. The Warriors didn’t exploit the defensive weaknesses of Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. The Cavs didn’t play their small-ball lineup with Channing Frye at the center spot — Frye had only seven minutes off the bench. Cleveland’s perimeter sharpshooters — JR Smith, Richard Jefferson, Matthew Dellavedova and Frye were complete non-factors. I’m not expecting a Game 2 repeat for either squad. It start with this quote from Tyronn Lue following the Game 1 defeat: "I just told LeBron I need him to play faster. I need him to pick up the pace for us offensively, getting the ball out and just beginning to play faster.” The Cavs picking up the pace should create a very different dynamic tonight — it opens up the transition game for Golden State, forces the refs to blow their whistles and, in general, creates a better offensive flow for BOTH teams. This is the single lowest total of the playoffs for the Golden State Warriors. In a true ‘backs against the wall, must win’ game for Cleveland (the Cavs aren’t winning four of the next five if they lose tonight, and they know it), But those two factors together with the expected increase in both pace and offensive efficiency on a points per possession basis this evening (with the refs blowing their whistles) put me clearly on the Over in Game 2 tonight. Take the Over. |
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06-04-16 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Take San Diego - Colorado OVER (#913-914). Abbreviated write-up today. The Padres are trending Over at an 80% clip -- even the low scoring nature of Petco Field hasn't cooled off their hot lineup or helped their spotty pitching. Colorado's lineup is remarably potent and they've hammered Andrew Cashner. Expect fireworks! |
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06-03-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Take Seattle – Texas OVER (#973-974) I don’t have many 21 run winners in MLB, but my clients and I cashed one last night as the Mariners rallied from ten runs down to beat San Diego at Petco in a game that flew Over the total by 21 runs. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Mariners have cashed nine straight Over tickets. As I’ve written before, Overs begat more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Bullpens wear down following extended usage, leading to more bullpen meltdowns. Teams take better at bats knowing that they’ll need to score runs in bunches to win. When teams are riding these Over trends, bettors NEED to take notice. “The Mariners just scored 47 runs in a four game set at the lowest scoring ballpark in the majors; at least six in every game. This potent lineup is clicking, producing five runs or more ten times in their last 14 games.” We can expect more offensive fireworks tonight! Texas is hitting too, pounding out 31 runs in their last five contests. They just cashed three straight Over tickets in Cleveland this week. Seattle’s Taijuan Walker has lost his mojo, lit up for four runs or more in each of his last four starts while showing extreme vulnerability to the gopher ball – he’s given up nine home runs in his last five trips to the hill. Seattle’s bullpen behind him is a mess after very short stints from Wade Miley and James Paxton over the last two nights. Yu Darvish will be on a strict pitch count again in only his second start back from Tommy John surgery. From all indications, he’s still a long way from being 100%, despite a strong first showing (one run in five innings against the Pirates). Seattle has hit Darvish hard, with current Mariners enjoying a .316 career batting average against him in 76 at bats. And the Rangers bullpen has been a consistent disappointment this year, ranked #29 in MLB in bullpen ERA, offering the potential for late offensive fireworks should we need them. Take the Over. |
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06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 210 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 46 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Cleveland – Golden State OVER (#501-502) Last year, when the Cavs and Warriors squared off in the Finals, we did not witness stellar offensive execution from either squad. Only one of the six games – the Warriors clincher in Game 6 – went Over the total in regulation. When these two teams met for the first time this year, on Christmas Day, neither team reached 90 and the game stayed under by 35 points. That was then. This is now. The Cavs are a completely different animal compared to last year in the Finals, with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving both healthy this time around. And that duo – Love and Irving – are the key to this wager. To say that Kevin Love is a bottom tier defender is something of an understatement. The guy can fill up the basket, he can grab rebounds, he’s a good passing big man, but his defense – particularly on pick and rolls – is as bad as it gets, based on the NBA’s advanced metric numbers. Kyrie Irving is a great offensive player, capable of penetrating the paint, finding open teammates, draining contested jumpers and creating off the dribble. But Irving’s defense, like Love’s is nothing short of atrocious – he can’t stay in front of anybody! Tyrone Lue is not an experienced head coach, and the Cavs are not a team that has slowly been built over the years; a team where everyone knows where they are supposed to be defensively at all times. There’s no place to hide Kevin Love on defense when his natural matchup is on Draymond Green. There’s no place to hide Kyrie Irving on defense when his natural matchup is on Steph Curry. When the Cavs have two bottom tier defenders facing off against two elite scorers and playmakers, we can expect the Warriors to enjoy tremendous offensive success right here in Game 1. It’s surely worth noting that the second regular season meeting between these two teams this year saw Golden State hang 104 on Cleveland….in the first three quarters, before garbage time. But one thing the Cavs CAN do with Love and Irving getting ample minutes is to trade points with anybody. They’ve averaged 107 points per game in their first 14 playoff tilts, despite playing a trio of slower paced teams, in large part due to their 43% shooting from three point range. And frankly, there’s no reason to expect anything different here – not the way this offense is clicking. It’s surely worth noting that even after previous long layoffs here in the postseason, the Cavs have hung 104+ on each of their three opponents in Game 1’s. This is the single lowest total of the playoffs for the Golden State Warriors. I think that’s a betting market mistake worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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06-02-16 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Seattle – San Diego OVER (#919-920) The first three games of this series have produced a combined 49 runs, all three of them flying Over the total with relative ease. Last night’s game went Over the total in the very first inning, a true ‘rocking chair’ winner for Over bettors. But it’s not just this series – both of these teams have been trending Over for weeks! The Mariners have cashed eight straight Over tickets. The Padres have cashed seven overs in their last eight games. The only Under game during that span stayed Under by a half run. As I’ve written before, Overs begat more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Bullpens wear down following extended usage, leading to more bullpen meltdowns. Teams take better at bats knowing that they’ll need to score runs in bunches to win. When teams are riding these Over trends, bettors NEED to take notice. The Padres pounded out 14 runs last night and they’ve scored seven or more in half of their games since their last off day. They’ve hit lefties like Wade Miley well, ranked in the top half of MLB in batting average and OPS against southpaws. The Mariners have scored 31 runs already in this series; at least six in every game. This potent lineup is clicking, producing five runs or more nine times in their last 13 games. Neither starter is reliable. Miley has been lit up by current Padres, with a .315 career batting average against. Miley has only three quality starts in ten previous outings this year, lit up three times in his last four trips to the hill. Padres starter Colin Rea got sent down to the minors to throw just a single inning last week instead of making his normally scheduled start as San Diego looks to limit his workload. Expect another high scoring Slugfest between these two teams tonight! Take the Over. |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 198.5 | Top | 84-99 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Take Cleveland – Toronto OVER (#709-710) Both Game 1 and Game 2 of this series played at an Over pace throughout the first three quarters of gametime. In games totaled between 197.5 and 199, both first halves have produced 110 points; each flying Over the first half total with plenty of room to spare. But both games ended up being complete Cavs blowouts. Both times, Cleveland just milked the clock down the stretch while Toronto was too far behind to exert much energy attempting a late comeback. As a result, we’ve seen only 79 combined 4th quarter points in the two games. Neither team scored a single point in the final minute of either game. Both teams dribbled out the clock in Game 1 and Game 2, taking four more possessions out of the equation. That’s not likely to happen here in Game 3 as the series shifts to Toronto. Cleveland is going to get their fair share. The Cavs have hung 115 and 108 on Toronto in the first two games of the series despite cooling down from their record setting three point shooting pace that they set in their first two series against the Pistons and Hawks. How have they done it? Simple – the Cavs have been able to break down Toronto’s defense again and again, getting good looks at the basket on nearly every possession. Cleveland shot 63% from two point range in Game 1, and 56% in Game 2. There just aren’t many adjustments that Dwane Casey can make on the defensive end to contain this elite level Cavs offense. What Toronto can do is play with more energy in front of the home faithful; a big difference for a team that has looked pretty gassed in their first two losses of the series. Most notably, the Raptors need to get something from point guard Kyle Lowry, who is just 1-15 from three point range in this series with more turnovers than assists. In his last two home games – both Raptors wins and covers – Lowry made 20 shots, including a 9-16 mark from three point range and 11-15 from the free throw line. Lowry has a grand total of two free throw attempts in this series so far. His quote speaks volumes for Over bettors: “I’m super confident. I missed countless 3s that I thought were good and that I made last series. That’s why I’m not down on myself. We’ve got a game on Saturday, and I know I’m going to be much more effective. Simple as that.” Take the Over. |
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05-20-16 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Take Washington – Miami OVER (#955-956) Tanner Roark has faced the Miami Marlins three times already this year. Miami hit him hard on all three of those occasions. In fact 14 of the 17 earned runs that Roark has allowed have come against the Marlins…and that doesn’t even include the two unearned runs Miami has against him. Roark has thrown 110 + pitches in each of his last two outings after throwing 121 against the Twins in late April – Washington manager Dusty Baker is up to his old tricks, keeping his starters in too long. And Baker’s quote isn’t exactly what his starter needs to hear (or think about): “I hope that team's not becoming a nemesis to him. Everybody has a couple teams they have some trouble with. They hit him pretty hard." A slumping Giancarlo Stanton is primed to give the Marlins lineup a boost against a hurler who he’s hit hard. But the Nationals potent bats are hot again, flying Over the total by themselves in each of the last two games. That’s bad news for Justin Nicolino, who has not fared well in either of his two previous career starts against the Nationals. Here’s what he said after getting bombed in DC last weekend: "I kind of was all over the place. That's a good-hitting lineup and you definitely don't want to make mistakes to them.” Each of Nicolino’s last three starts has produced ten combined runs or more, and his nine walk to two strikeout ratio here in May is a major concern against Washington’s patient lineup (ranked #5 in the majors in walks). Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the Over. |
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05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 198.5 | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Take Cleveland – Toronto OVER (#707-708) The Cavs last series against Atlanta featured an elite level offensive team clicking on all cylinders from three point range, as the Cavs set NBA record with their prowess from beyond the arc. Cleveland hit only seven three pointers in Game 1, yet they still hung 115 on the Raptors thanks to a complete dominance in the paint. Cleveland got whatever they wanted near the basket, scoring 56 points in the paint while shooting at a 63% clip inside the arc. There’s no reason to expect that do be different in Game 2. Cleveland is absolutely clicking on all cylinders offensively right now, and the Raptors simply don’t have the defensive answers – not on the perimeter, and not in the paint, with Jonas Valanciunas officially listed as ‘out’ for tonight’s game. The Cavs inside/outside balance and playoff level intensity have resulted in a 108.5 ppg average as they’ve won their first nine postseason games. I expect the Cavs to approach or exceed that number once again this evening. There is one significant difference that I’m expecting to see in Game 2. From all indications, Toronto is going to be more aggressive offensively tonight. Game 1 was the first time all season that both DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry finished a game without a single free throw attempt. In fact, Toronto’s starting five got to the free throw line only four times all game! Here’s DeRozan’s quote: “We’ve got to come out of the gate with that mindset, being aggressive like we usually do, and I think we didn’t try to do that until later in the game.” Raptors head coach Dwane Casey: "We've got to make sure we force the issue, force the contact, if we're not, and make sure we get to the free-throw line…..“t’s a different series than last series. We've got to get our minds adjusted and bodies adjusted. The speed of the game is another issue, a quicker pace, a quicker foot speed for this team versus Miami and Indiana, so we've got to make that adjustment.” And a LeBron quote is worthy of inclusion here as well: “I think for us, we want to push the tempo. We want to move the ball from side to side, and we want to attack. With myself and Ky, we love to live in the paint." With both teams talking about taking the ball into the paint aggressively, the Over stands out as a positive expectation wager this evening. Take the Over. |
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05-19-16 | Indians v. Reds OVER 8 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Cincinnati OVER (#919-920) My clients and I cashed a relatively easy winner with the Reds – Indians Over last night a bet that cashed in the sixth inning of a game that flew Over the total by 6.5 runs. Many of the same elements remain in play for the series finale today. Cincinnati has been an Over machine, cashing only 14 Unders in their first 40 games. It’s easy to understand why – their pitching has been nothing short of awful. No starter has lasted past the sixth inning in the last two weeks, and Reds starters have lasted only 205 innings, the lowest number of innings pitched in the major leagues. Poor starting pitching has led to an exhausted, overworked bullpen, a pen that ranks #29 in innings pitched this season. Reds relievers rank dead last in MLB with a 6.43 ERA, 85 walks and 33 home runs allowed. That bullpen has been severely tested and depleted in this series . That bullpen has been forced to throw 14 innings in this series already, allowing 15 runs in the process. Don’t expect rookie hurler Tim Adleman to be a difference maker here – it’s certainly not like he’s been eating innings in his three previous big league starts. Josh Tomlin is no ace, allowing four runs or more in three of his last four trips to the hill. Tomlin has a lousy track record against Cincinnati, with current Reds batting .318 with a .933 OPS against him in their careers. He got lit up for six runs in 4.1 innings of work in his lone recent start against the Reds. Cleveland’s bullpen behind Tomlin was taxed in last night’s extra inning affair. Cinci’s lineup is in solid current form, pounding out 23 runs over their last four games. Cleveland’s offense has been even more productive, scoring 36 runs in the first three games of this home & home series. Overs begat more Overs, thanks to hot lineups and worn down bullpens. Take the Over. |
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05-18-16 | Indians v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Take Cincinnati – Cleveland OVER (#975-976) When a rookie hurler gets called up to make his MLB debut, I’m always interested in reading the manager’s quotes about his young starter. There’s often a lot of nuance here, reading between the lines. Here’s what Indians manager Terry Francona said about rookie starter Mike Clevinger yesterday: "We're really excited to watch him. I don't think tomorrow's start is going to define his career, and I do think he's still developing. But there's a lot to like with a kid with that kind of breaking ball, that kind of velocity, that kind of competitiveness. I think you can still develop and win, and we're looking forward to it." Read between the lines there and basically, Francona is telling us that this kid’s got good stuff, but he’s not ready yet. But after Cody Anderson’s awful start to the campaign, the Tribe needed a starting pitcher today, so Clevinger got the call. Facing a Reds lineup that’s in solid current form, pounding out 16 runs over their last three games, I’m expecting Cincinnati to get more than their fair share of runs across home plate tonight. Reds starter Brandon Finnegan has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last five starts. He’s struggling with his control, leading to high pitch counts and short stints (five innings or less in four of his last six trips to the hill). Behind him is a true ‘gas can’ of a bullpen – that’s how Cleveland has scored 28 runs in the first two games of this ‘home & home’ four game set. The Reds bullpen gave up 11 of those runs in just 7.2 innings of work; fairly typical of a bullpen that ranks dead last in ERA and next to last in innings pitched, badly overworked already. If we don’t see a flurry of early runs here, we should have ample opportunity to see some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in the latter stages of this one. Take the Over. |
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05-09-16 | Raptors v. Heat OVER 192 | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Take Miami – Toronto OVER (#529-530) One of my bigger weaknesses as a handicapper is my tendency to over-analyze, as opposed to simply betting the ‘low hanging fruit’. That’s not going to happen here! In fact, this Over is something of an auto-bet. Miami just lost their low post defensive stopper and the NBA’s leading shot-blocker, Hassan Whiteside, with a knee injury. Toronto just lost their low post defensive stopper and top defensive rebounder, Jonas Valanciunas, with an ankle injury that will keep him out for the rest of the series. Both injuries occurred in Game 3, neither team has had extra time to prepare for Game 4. When the best low post defender from each team gets hurt, you bet the Over in the next game – period. There are a couple of additional factors as well. Toronto’s Kyle Lowry finally broke out of his shooting funk in Game 3, giving the Raptors offense a major boost. Lowry’s struggles have been a HUGE part of the reason why the Raptors are 8-2 to the Under since the start of the playoffs, with one of the two Overs cashing in OT, not in regulation. And Miami’s offensive efficiency at home has been dramatically better than it’s been on the road here in the postseason, averaging more than 104 points per game in their five previous home playoff games. Take the Over. |
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05-08-16 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 105 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Texas OVER (#965-966) The Tigers have been the highest scoring team in the AL during the daylight hours so far this season, ranked #2 in the AL looking at daytime OPS splits. They’ve flown Over the total in each of their last three Sunday early start games. That’s bad news for Martin Perez, who’s been living on borrowed time in early season play. Perez has a FIP and an xFIP more than a full run higher than his ERA. Hi strikeout rate is at the lowest of his career, while his walk rate is at the highest. He’s pitched poorly in both previous career outings against Detroit, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA here at Comerica Park. The Rangers bullpen behind him isn’t fresh after Mike Pelfrey’s short stint yesterday; a unit that has suffered an MLB high nine losses already, ranked #25 in bullpen ERA. The Tigers are a legitimate threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. It’s the same story for Texas – their lineup broke out of a funk yesterday and flew Over the total by themselves. Detroit’s bullpen has been better in recent weeks, but it’s a long, long way from ‘elite’ status. Starter Justin Verlander was lit up in his lone previous daytime start this season. Last year, his ERA under the lights was 2.61, compared to 5.10 in the sunshine, an emerging trend worth noting. And Verlander’s propensity for giving up the longball (seven home runs allowed in 34 innings) is bad news against a power laden Texas lineup that pounded out five home runs yesterday. Take the Over. |
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05-07-16 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 211.5 | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Portland – Golden State OVER (#523-524) The only way the Blazers can counter the size of the Warriors starting backcourt (Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston) is with quickness, something that Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have plenty of in their offensive repertoires. That’s exactly what the Blazers did in Game 2 for the first three quarters – using their quickness to set up good shots for themselves and their teammates. But after hanging 87 through three quarters in Game 2, the Blazers finally ran out of gas in the fourth quarter, leading to that ugly (and frustrating for Portland backers) Warriors 28-6 runout to close out the game. This time around, Lillard, McCollum and the rest of the Blazers are fully rested. They had played six consecutive playoff games with only one day off in between, but they’ve been off since Tuesday. And head coach Terry Stotts has made it perfectly clear – he thinks his best chance to beat the Warriors is to run with them. Stotts: "I've always believed that you cannot afford to not try and get easy points. I think it's difficult to slow a team down because they're still going to run. We have a young team and I think we play better in flow and not necessarily (having) to grind it out in a half court game. If you want to slow them down by slowing down your offense, I don't think that caters to what we do well." The uptempo strategy is exactly what the Blazers did in the regular season when they ran the Warriors out of the gym in a 137-105 blowout on Steve Kerr & company’s last visit to Rip City. In fact, prior to the gassed Blazers fourth quarter meltdown in Game 2, the series had gone 5-0 to the Over this year, with the LOSER scoring at least 106 and the winner scoring at least 118 in every game! Expect more of the same tonight. Take the Over. |
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05-07-16 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | 13-7 | Win | 102 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Cincinnati OVER (#907-908) When it comes to early season hitting stats, neither the Reds nor the Brewers stand out as elite offenses, because they’re not. Both squads rank in the middle of the pack in terms of runs scored, batting average, OPS and slugging percentage, with the Brewers slightly above average and the Reds slightly below average. That being said, both Cinci and Milwaukee have been strong Over bets all year, a combined 36-19 to the Over. The Reds lineup underachieved early, and they’re breaking out of their funk right now. They’ve scored five or more five times in their last six games. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Adam Duvall are all tearing the cover off the ball on Cinci’s current homestand. Milwaukee’s Jimmy Nelson has pretty good stuff, but his track record in Cincinnati is downright awful, with a 10.38 ERA in three starts at the Great American Ballpark last year. Five different Reds starters have hit .333 or higher against him in their careers. Behind Nelson is one the least effective bullpens in the majors, ranked #28 in bullpen ERA. That bullpen is anything BUT fresh following short stints from their last two starters, playing here in their tenth consecutive game without a day off. There aren’t many bullpens weaker than the Brewers pen, but Cinci’s got one! The Reds pen has taken eight losses already, ranked dead last in MLB with a 6.28 ERA. Cinci’s streak off allowing at least one bullpen run ended last night after an MLB record 23 games, but they’re primed to start up a new streak today; truly a bottom tier bullpen unit. That’s particularly bad news with Cinci starter Brandon Finnegan dealing with the lingering effects of a hamstring injury that cut his last start short. Throw in a gusty wind blowing out to center field and this Over becomes something of a no-brainer! Take the Over. |
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05-06-16 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco – Colorado OVER (#961-962) My clients and I cashed an easy Over ticket by the fifth inning last night in the Rockies – Giants game. Colorado went Over the total by themselves in a 13 run fifth, but even if we throw that entire inning out of the equation, the two teams still went Over the total with room to spare. Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Giants bullpen has been mediocre at best, currently ranked #20 in team ERA. And defensively, the Giants have been nothing short of awful, dead last in the NL in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (PADE); a big part of the reason why San Fran has been a strong Over team thusfar (12-2 to the Over in their last 14 games). But the Giants lineup is capable of trading runs with anybody, pounding out 73 runs in their last 13 games while scoring four runs or more ten times during that span. The struggling Rockies bullpen is currently ranked #27 in ERA out of 30 big league teams.” Madison Bumgarner is on the hill for the Giants today, but he’s been hittable all year and he’s coming off 114 and 112 pitch efforts in his last two starts (both cashing Over bets). Rockies sluggers Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez have combined to hit seven dingers off Bumgarner, and the bullpen behind him is most assuredly not fresh off last night’s disaster. Colorado’s Chad Bettis is no ace! He didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in his last start against San Francisco, with a 5.16 career ERA against San Fran. The Giants could have Joe Panik back in the lineup today and should have Hunter Pence back as well after he missed last night’s game with some tightness in his back. We saw an impressive offensive display last night and I’m expecting more of the same tonight, with the wind blowing out to center field once again. Take the Over. |
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05-06-16 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 200.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Take Oklahoma City – San Antonio OVER (#519-520) LaMarcus Aldridge went nuts for San Antonio in each of the first two games: 33-54 from the floor, scoring 79 points in the process. But particularly in Game 2, the Spurs supporting cast didn’t show up; shooting a combined 25-63 from the floor and a truly dismal 1-3 from the free throw line. Obviously, coach Pop knows that his team wasn’t aggressive enough, nor did they shoot well from three point range (only six makes on 26% shooting). I’m anticipating a very different level of offensive play from the other 14 Spurs on the roster tonight, and I’m definitely expecting more free throw attempts; the single strongest correlative stat with NBA totals. It’s surely worth noting that off a home loss heading on the road, the Spurs went 2-0 to the Over in the playoffs last year (scoring 109 & 111 in those two games). It was a similar story in 2014: 2-0 to the Over off a home playoff loss, with San Antonio averaging 110 points in those games. The Thunder scored 131, 119 and 118 to close out their series with Dallas; all three games getting above 220 points. In Game 1, the Under was never in play either – San Antonio had 73 points by halftime. OKC averaged 111 points per game, shooting better than 50% from the floor while beating San Antonio on this floor twice during the regular season. This Dion Waiters quote makes me think we’ll see more of the same tonight: “We have to come into the game like we're down 0-2. We know that's how they're going to approach the game. We know they're going to come in and do what they do. We have to match their intensity. We know it's important to take care of home-court advantage. We have to come in with the mindset of coming in to win and compete, play hard as possible and play smart." Take the Over. |
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05-05-16 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Take San Francisco – Colorado OVER (#911-912) My clients and I cashed an Over ticket by the sixth inning the last time Matt Cain faced the Rockies; an 11-6 Slugfest. Cain hasn’t gotten much better since that defeat – his next quality start will be his first since his 2016 debut. He’s on pace to set career lows in swinging strike percentage and in ground ball percentage – opposing hitters are seeing his stuff clearly, and bashing it! No surprise, then, that Cain has cashed a grand total of two winning Under bets in his last 14 trips to the hill; a trend worth riding again here. A fly ball pitcher like Cain certainly won’t be helped by a gusty wind blowing out to left field tonight. And the fact that seven different current Rockies have home runs against Cain in their careers isn’t a good sign for the Giants expensive mid-tier starter. The Giants bullpen behind him has been mediocre at best, currently ranked #20 in team ERA. And defensively, the Giants have been nothing short of awful, dead last in the NL in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (PADE); a big part of the reason why San Fran has been a strong Over team thusfar (11-2 to the Over in their last 13 games). But the Giants lineup is capable of trading runs with anybody, pounding out 66 runs in their last dozen games while scoring four runs or more nine times during that span. That’s bad news for Rockies starter Chris Rusin, and the struggling Rockies bullpen behind him (currently ranked #27 in ERA out of 30 big league teams). Rusin is no innings eater – he started the season in the long relief role and was pulled after only 76 pitches of his lone previous start. Rusin’s xFIP is twice as high as his ERA, and his .179 BABIP is due for a significant correction as well. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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04-25-16 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | 7-12 | Win | 107 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Arizona – St Louis OVER (#905-906) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner by the top of the fifth inning betting the Cardinals Over the total yesterday. And I have no hesitation getting right back to the betting window with an Over wager on St Louis again tonight. From a starting pitching standpoint, this game isn’t going to attract many Over bets. Zack Greinke is an ace. Jamie Garcia is an ace. Garcia has allowed only five hits and two runs over 14 innings of his last two starts while striking out 20 opposing batters. After a couple of rough outings to open the season, Greinke has allowed only three runs in 14 innings of work in his last two starts, while striking out a dozen opposing hitters. But starting pitching is only one piece of the MLB betting equation. Let’s look at these two lineups. Both squads have been CRUSHING the ball of late. St Louis just scored 19 runs in their final two games at low scoring Petco Field, the #2 scoring offense in MLB through the first three weeks of the season. Arizona has scored six runs or more six times in their last eight games, including 24 runs in their just concluded three game set against the Pirates solid staff. Both of these teams can hit, and both are in excellent current offensive form, especially with Paul Goldschmidt getting untracked with a pair of home runs yesterday. And let’s look at these two bullpens! Arizona’s pen is completely spent – seven different relievers combined to throw 165 pitches yesterday in their 13 inning marathon, and the pen has now thrown 23 full innings of work over the last four days, with several of their better relievers unavailable tonight after going on Saturday as well. The Cardinals top three bullpen arms are all spent as well. Sueng-Hwan Oh and Jonathan Broxton are off of back-to-back appearances, while Trevor Rosenthal got stretched out to 34 pitches yesterday. Early reports indicate that the Chase Field Roof is likely to be open this evening, and forecasts call for a strong, gusty wind blowing out to center in this hitter’s ballpark if that roof is open. This is one game where betting two aces Over the total makes perfect sense to this bettor! Take the Over. |
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04-24-16 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – San Diego OVER (#963-964) Petco has historically been the lowest scoring, least hitter friendly park in all of baseball. The outfield walls are deep, the power alleys even deeper and the ball does not carry in the dense warm air by the ocean. And for the better part of the 21st century, the Padres pitching –both starters and bullpen -- has been consistently better than their lineup, keeping their totals deflated. That’s not the case this year, especially with their bullpen, currently ranked #27 in MLB in ERA, off another dismal showing last night, the second time in four days that the bullpen has allowed eight runs or more. That’s particularly bad news against St Louis – the Cardinals have the second highest scoring offense in baseball this year while pounding out 50 runs in their first eight road games. The Padres have now gone Over the total in six of their last seven games on this homestand. And there’s ample reason to think that San Diego will be able to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard as well against Mike Leake. Leake’s walk rate is at a career high through his first three starts, and his ground ball rate is at a career low, a bad combination for a pitcher that doesn’t record strikeouts in bunches. San Diego’s Colin Rea has not been able to eat up innings in three previous starts this season, lasting through the sixth only once. The Cardinals blasted him in his lone appearance against them last year, allowing five runs in four innings of work. At least one of these two teams has gone Over the total by themselves in four of the last five meetings dating back to last August, and I wouldn’t be shocked if that happens again this afternoon. Take the Over. |
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04-23-16 | Heat v. Hornets UNDER 200.5 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Take Charlotte – Miami UNDER (#547-548) The first two games of this series have flown Over the total, and it hasn’t even been close. The Heat have played tremendous one-on-one basketball, hanging 115 and 123 on the Hornets. The single best offensive team in the NBA this year, Golden State, finished the season with a 112.5 points per 100 possessions average. The single worst defensive team in the NBA, the LA Lakers, allowed 109.2 points per 100 possessions. Through the first two games of this series, the Miami Heat have averaged 134.7 points per 100 possessions, the type of offensive execution that simply cannot be expected to continue at this ‘off the charts’ level. Expect the regression to start right here in Game 3. Miami knows what’s coming today. Dwayne Wade: “On the road we have to win defensively. We can't expect to take this same offensive game on the road. If that ever happens, praise God. Thank you. But we can't expect it at all. We have to win these games with defense, and our defense has to be better." Hornets head coach Steve Clifford isn’t panicking. "You have to look at how they're scoring. They're not running sets that we're having trouble with coverages on. It's one-on-one stuff. It's as simple as this: If Dwayne Wade’s got room, he's getting in the paint against anybody…..I know my team. I watch my team closer than anybody. I'm going to look and figure out what the problems are. If we need to make an adjustment, we'll make it. ... Sometimes, the other team just makes shots. That's what's really going on." Two regular season meetings between these two teams went Under 194.5 and 192. Miami closed out the regular season ranked #25 in pace out of 30 NBA teams, Charlotte was well below average pace-wise as well. Expect a much different type of offensive flow today as the series shifts to North Carolina. Take the Under. |
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04-22-16 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 201.5 | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Atlanta OVER (#541-542) The Celtics have only one option if they are going to make this series with the Hawks a competitive one. Boston’s halfcourt offense isn’t working in this series. They fell behind by 20 before halftime in Game 1, then managed only seven first quarter points in Game 2, again falling behind by 20. All the talk out of Boston is how the Celtics want to start fast tonight and push the pace at every opportunity. The Celtics aren’t built for slowdown, half court games. Head coach Brad Stevens is a brilliant tactician, and he knows full well that Boston’s only chance in this series is to push the pace at every opportunity: ‘Pace and space’. And prior to Game 2, the Celtics had been able to do that in every recent meeting with the Hawks, hanging 100+ on Atlanta in each of the previous three meetings. The final three regular season matchups between these two teams all flew Over the total, producing 215, 210 and 218 points. And Atlanta averaged 110 points per game in the four meetings prior to Game 2, when they slowed down their offense with a big second half lead. It’s not like Game 2 was typical of the season series – not even close. Make no mistake about it – despite a 2-0 mark to the Under in this series, the pace has been frenetic. The problem for Over bettors have been missed shots – lots and lots of missed shots. The Celtics are just 65-190 from the floor in the first two games, and just 16-63 from three point range. 34% from the floor and 25% from three point range correlates well with Unders, to put it mildly. That being said, the Celtics have scored 98+ in 20 of their last 21 home games, and the lone exception was a double digit win where they slowed down the pace after halftime. I’m expecting the Celtics pace to actually produce points tonight, something that didn’t happen in Game #2. Atlanta is an elite defensive squad, but they are also a team prone to letdowns, a major concern following their 2-0 start to the series. Their offense wasn’t good in Game 2 either, with the starting forward combo of Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore combining to shoot 3-26 in Game 2. Without their best on ball defender (the injured Avery Bradley) Kyle Korver and the rest of the Hawks shooters saw plenty of open perimeter looks in Game 2. Expect more of the same tonight in a game that has ‘shootout’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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04-20-16 | Pistons v. Cavs OVER 202 | Top | 90-107 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Take Cleveland – Detroit OVER (#529-530) Detroit really didn’t have any defensive answers for the Cavs ‘Big 3’ in Game 1. Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and LeBron James combined to score 81 points and dish 18 assists; combining to take over the game during crunch time. This isn’t a case where Stan Van Gundy and the Pistons have simple adjustments they can make to fix things. Van Gundy: “I never know with the great players. You do what you think is best; you ask your guys to do certain things. Our guys did those certain things but those guys have had too many great games against my teams for me to think I have a formula or we know how to defend him. That’s what happens with the great players; any time you delude yourself into thinking you’ve got the answer and you’re a brilliant coach and you’ve got this scenario - no….You go out as hard as you can every night and hope your plan is sound and you hope you execute it well and you hope the guy misses some shots. You’re not locking those guys down. Those guys don’t have holes in their game - there is no answer.” One thing the Cavs didn’t do in Game 1 is get to the free throw line. LeBron was in the paint for 12 of his 17 shot attempts, yet he got only four free throw attempts and whined about it after the game. Van Gundy whined to the media about the non-calls on potential LeBron offensive fouls in Game 1. I would expect this game to be rather tightly officiated, with plenty of whistles. And nothing – not even pace – correlates better with Overs than a foul-fest of a game, with point after point going up on the scoreboard without the clock running. The Cavs defense isn’t exactly a finished, championship level unit entering the playoffs. The Pistons got open looks throughout Game 1, resulting in 15 made three pointers. As a team, Cleveland has given up 107 points per game on 48% shooting over their last five contests. First year, first time head coach Tyrone Lue isn’t known as a defensive mastermind, primed to make great adjustments for Game 2. After a pair of low scoring duds in NBA Playoff action last night, expect this Wednesday Night battle to be far more entertaining; a high scoring shootout just waiting to happen. Take the Over. |
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04-18-16 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Chicago – St Louis OVER (#957-958) The Cardinals rank #1 in MLB in runs scored this year. The Cubs rank #2. They rank #2 and #3 in on-base percentage. Both squads rank among the Top 7 in OPS, despite the Cubs offensive futility in the unseasonably chilly air at Wrigley over the weekend (seven runs scored in three games). Make no mistake about it – either or both of these lineups are capable of putting a bevy of crooked numbers up on the scoreboard, sending this game up and Over the total all by themselves. When these two teams met in the playoffs last year, we saw Overs cash in each of the last three games of the series; a series that is now 10-2-1 to the Over in the last 13 meetings. And tonight’s starting pitching matchup features a pair of hurlers with red flags flying all over the place! Through his first two starts, Chicago’s John Lackey is on pace for a career high ERA, a career low in ground ball rate and a career high home run rate per fly ball. That’s a bad trifecta! Facing his former teammates in St Louis will be no easy task for Lackey this evening. Mike Leake’s numbers are even more concerning. Leake doesn’t notch many K’s. So when his walk rate is at a career high through his first two starts, and his ground ball rate is at a career low, it’s particularly bad news moving forward. On a warm evening at Busch Stadium (gametime temperatures in the 70’s) expect offensive fireworks! Take the Over. |
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04-17-16 | Blazers v. Clippers UNDER 209 | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Take LA Clippers – Portland UNDER (#515-516) The Blazers have defended the Clippers extremely well this season, holding LA to just 95.3 points per game. The Clippers have the single most efficient defense in the NBA since Blake Griffin returned to the lineup, while going 9-1 SU in the ten games prior to their completely meaningless season finale at Phoenix on Wednesday. Put those two factors together and suddenly this total (sitting at 209 as I write this on Sunday morning after getting bet up from the opener of 206.5) looks a good notch or two too high! Neither squad plays at a breakneck tempo, with both teams ranked outside the Top 10 in pace ratings. Doc Rivers is VERY concerned about managing his veteran’s minutes for a deep postseason run – he’s got no interest in pushing the pace in this series whatsoever. And Rivers has been harping on defense for weeks – LA”s recent numbers are truly impressive, yet the betting markets are viewing them as nothing more than a temporary blip. Rivers, following their blowout over Memphis on Tuesday, holding the Grizz to 84 points on 40% shooting: “You can see how focused we have been. We are starting to take away individual strengths. Our talk is better. I love the way we're playing defense right now." Forward Jeff Green concurred: “Our (defensive) chemistry is great. It's getting better and better with each game.” Yet the markets aren’t focusing on that dramatic and significant recent improvement. But I am! Portland is a jump shooting team in the playoffs, always suspect on the offensive end. Their backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are their only offensive creators – stop that duo and the Blazers will struggle to reach 90. LA’s defense contained both guys this year, holding McCollum to 38% shooting in three regular season meetings and Lillard to 32%, while holding the Blazers as a team to just 93 points per game in the final three meetings. A series that is 5-2 to the Under since the calendar flipped to 2015 is primed to cash another Under ticket tonight. Take the Under. |
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04-17-16 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Philadelphia OVER (#903-904) I’m not a huge proponent of betting day/night splits. But these two starting pitchers really stand out in that regard. Gio Gonzalez has an ERA more than a full run higher (4.32 vs. 3.19) since the start of the 2013 season when pitching in the sunlight as opposed to under the lights. In fact, his daytime ERA has been significantly higher than his nighttime ERA in every season since 2011. The Phillies lineup has not come out of the gate with much punch, but this is one opposing hurler who they are very familiar with and capable of scratching out runs against. Charlie Morton is the poster child for day/night splits. In his previous daytime start this year, Morton got lit up for six runs in 3.2 innings. In his nighttime start, he threw 6.2 innings of scoreless ball. This isn’t new or different. Over the course of his nine year MLB career, Morton is 7-28 with a 5.84 ERA during the day compared to 39-43 with a 4.10 at night. That’s an extended track record of failure in spots like this one. The Phillies bullpen behind Morton is a powder keg, overworked already after their starters managed to last only eight combined innings in the first two games of this series. That bullpen is currently ranked #26 out of 30 MLB teams in ERA. And Washington’s lineup is clicking right now, pounding out 23 runs while cashing winning Over bets in each of their last three ballgames. Expect plenty of crooked numbers on the scoreboard for this one! Take the Over. |
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04-16-16 | Mavs v. Thunder UNDER 205.5 | 70-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Dallas – Oklahoma City Under (#507-508) For the full season, the Mavericks have been one of the slower paced teams in the NBA, ranked #22 in possessions per game. Then, after an ugly blowout loss at Sacramento in late March, head coach Rick Carlisle made a decision to slow the pace down even further. Over their last nine games, the Mavs have ranked dead last; #30 in the NBA’s pace ratings. Clearly, that slowdown style has been working. After an ugly 7-16 stretch in which the Mavs allowed more than 111 points per game, Dallas went 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS to close out the regular season and make the playoffs. None of those nine opponents reached 100 points against them during this span; even uptempo teams like the Rockets, Spurs and T-Wolves. No surprise, then, that the Mavs have gone 7-2 to the Under during this span. Most of the Under winners haven’t even been close; cashing bets by 26, 19.5, 18, 39.5 and 32.5 points. Point guard JJ Barea’s quote speaks volumes: “I like to play fast, too, but slowing it down is working for us. We've got to stay that way.” Rick Carlisle, talking about his squad: “This is one of my favorite teams I've ever worked with because they had to do it the hard way. They had to do it with a pretty significant style change, some pretty major sacrifices throughout the roster. We had to grind." OKC doesn’t play at a breakneck pace (#9 for the full season) but their offensive efficiency numbers rank only behind Golden State’s – they’ve been able to take advantage of their possessions, even in slower paced games. That’s not going to be quite so easy today against a Mavs squad playing elite level defense right now. And OKC has been cashing plenty of Unders in this home favorite’s role of late, including against uptempo squads like the Lakers, Spurs, Rockets and T-wolves in recent home games. Take the Under. |
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04-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Take Boston – Toronto OVER (#917-918) Yes, it’s going to be chilly at Fenway Park this evening, and the wind will be blowing in. But the betting markets have already adjusted for the poor weather conditions, driving this total all the way down to 8.5 a ‘buy’ number for me considering the potent nature of both of these lineups. The Red Sox and Blue Jays played at Fenway Park nine times last year. Those game went 6-2-1 to the Over. One TEAM went Over the total by themselves in five of those games; including one game where BOTH teams went Over the total by themselves. When these two teams met in Toronto just last week, two of the three games finished with 12 runs or more. Only three AL teams have scored more than the Blue Jays or Red Sox this season; two extraordinarily potent lineups worthy of support tonight. RA Dickey is not a cold weather pitcher, and I doubt whether his knuckleball will be dancing all over the place this evening. The Red Sox just plated seven runs against him in five innings last week. Dickey went winless in six starts against Boston last year. He won’t have regular catcher Russell Martin behind the plate tonight. Martin’s replacement, Josh Thole, had a pair of passed balls trying to deal with Dickey’s knuckler last week. Toronto’s bullpen behind Dickey has underachieved significantly already, and the Red Sox have scored five runs or more six times in eight games, a loaded lineup that’s clicking already. Rick Porcello allowed 18 runs in 22.1 innings, making four starts against the Blue Jays last year. The first start was good, but each of the last three were rather ugly for this ‘middle of the rotation’ hurler. He gave up a pair of dingers to Jose Bautista last week, and Josh Donaldson hit him hard as well. The Red Sox bullpen behind him has shown some cracks, opening the door for late inning shenanigans should we need them. Take the Over. |
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04-14-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 1 h 43 m | Show |
Take Colorado – San Francisco OVER (#955-956) San Fran’s Matt Cain is a seasoned veteran, but after throwing 200+ innings for six consecutive seasons, he has declined precipitously over the last three years; unable to stay healthy or pitch effectively when he’s been healthy. A fly ball pitcher like Cain certainly won’t be helped by a gusty wind blowing out to center at hitter friendly Coors Field. And the fact that six different current Rockies have home runs against Cain in their careers isn’t a good sign for the Giants expensive mid-tier starter. His track record at Coors certainly isn’t very good (5.40 ERA in four starts there over the past three seasons). The Rockies lineup is clicking on all cylinders right now; ranked third in the majors in runs scored this year after their ten run outburst yesterday. One of the two teams ahead of them? How about these Giants, tied for the MLB lead in runs scored after they pounded out 22 runs in their last three games. San Fran is primed to pound Jorge De La Rosa today. De La Rosa has a long history of bad April results, and his fastball was topping out an 89 mph with little or no late movement in an ugly loss to Padres in his last start; a game that finished with 19 runs scored. He was every bit as hittable in his 2016 debut against the Dodgers; a game that finished with 15 runs scored. When a pitcher like De La Rosa’s velocity drops (as it has) it can get ugly, quickly. The Giants bullpen behind Cain got hit hard in extensive action yesterday. The Rockies bullpen behind De La Rosa isn’t fresh either, and they’re ranked dead last in the majors in bullpen ERA through the first ten days of the season. Expect a true Afternoon Delight Slugfest in early start action today! Take the Over. |
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04-13-16 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Take LA Dodgers – Arizona OVER (#913-914) The last time Rubby De La Rosa took the hill, my clients and I cashed an Over ticket by the top of the third inning. There’s ample reason to expect another high scoring affair in his second start of the season tonight. De La Rosa has some truly ugly splits against opposing lefties. Last year against lefties, De La Rosa allowed a .382 on base percentage (more than 50 points higher than the league average) and a .567 slugging percentage (MLB average was .407) against opposing left handed bats. LA has Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager as big left handed bats in their lineup, primed to give De La Rosa trouble tonight. It’s not hard to make a case for betting against a hurler with a 7.66 ERA without lasting six full innings in any of his last six starts; a guy who is out of his normal rhythm after making a rare bullpen appearance last Saturday. LA is a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Arizona’s lineup isn’t short on potency either, even with AJ Pollack out with a broken elbow. They’ve hit LA starter Alex Wood pretty hard, with a .308 average and a .907 OPS against him in 65 previous career at bats against him. In two late season starts against Arizona last September, Wood got lit up for eleven runs in just eight innings of work. And LA’s bullpen hasn’t been quenching many fires in early season play, particularly their middle relief corps. Expect a handful of big innings in this one, leading to some ‘crooked numbers’ on the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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04-12-16 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Take New York Mets – Miami Marlins UNDER (#957-958) Jose Fernandez got lit up in his 2016 debut, failing to make it out of the sixth inning and finishing the game with a 7.24 ERA. But there’s one major problem with that mainstream narrative. In this case, the stats lie. Fernandez was completely dominant in his first start of the season. He struck out 13 of the 23 batters that he faced while allowing only two hits through five innings Then he tired in the sixth and the bullpen behind him gave up the big hit, with the runs charged to Fernandez. The guy pitched like an ace, but the betting markets are just looking at the stats, not the way the game played out. It’s surely worth noting that the Mets – as a team – have a grand total of six hits against Fernandez in their respective careers. In four previous starts against the Mets, Fernandez has allowed four runs. And even though Miami’s bullpen got some work last night, it’s still a unit in excellent shape after back-2-back off days thanks to rainouts in Washington over the weekend. And the Mets lineup is ice cold to open the season, held to three runs or less five times in six games. Noah Syndergaard was flat out unhittable in his 2016 debut against Kansas City. With a 100 mph fastball and a true knee buckling curve, Syndergaard spent the offseason mastering his new ‘Warthen’ slider, named after the Mets pitching coach. He was throwing 95 mph sliders against KC, as nasty a pitch as you’ll ever see, truly ‘video-game’ like stuff. The Marlins have never seen him before, without a single at bat against Syndergaard from anybody on the roster. The Mets bullpen behind Syndergaard has been nothing short of outstanding, even after their first rough day of the season yesterday. On a cool, clear night at pitcher friendly Citi Field, with the wind blowing in from left center, expect runs to be few and far between. First team to score three runs wins this game…if they get that many! Take the Under |
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04-11-16 | Lakers v. Thunder OVER 215 | Top | 79-112 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Take Oklahoma City – LA Lakers OVER (#709-710) Let me start with an extended excerpt from my write-up supporting the Lakers Over the total yesterday in Houston; a game that flew Over the total by 28 points. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect the outcome of that game. “Kobe Bryant’s farewell tour around the NBA has produced a significant trend involving Lakers games. LA isn’t looking to win games, hurting their lottery position. They certainly aren’t looking to play much defense, ranked among the bottom four teams in the NBA in both points allowed and shooting percentage allowed. In Kobe’s final visit to opposing arenas, the Lakers are looking to put on a show, playing one high octane shootout after the next. “The results don’t lie. After Sunday’s 130-110 loss at Houston, the Lakers are now 16-6 to the Over on Kobe’s final visit to opposing arenas. And these games haven’t been sneaking Over the total either – they’ve been flying Over, in large part because the Lakers aren’t playing a lick of defense. They’ve allowed 130to the Rockets, 110 to the hapless Pelicans, 123 at offensively challenged Utah, 119 at Phoenix, 117 at Denver, 108 at Milwaukee, 126 at Chicago and 120 at Cleveland in their last nine tries in hostile arenas while going 8-1 to the Over; the lone Under coming by just 1.5 points. This is a meaningful trend, worth riding here.” The Thunder have hung 117, 120 and 118 in their three previous meetings with the Lakers this year, and it’s certainly not like Billy Donovan’s uptempo squad is looking to slow the game down. OKC just allowed 114 in a loss at Sacramento, the fourth time I five games they’ve allowed 114+, not exactly stepping it up on the defensive end of the court here at the tail end of the regular season. A team like OKC with ‘nothing to play for’ as they tune up for the playoffs is primed to deliver us another thoroughly entertaining, high scoring shootout tonight, even if Donovan takes his foot off the gas pedal and lets some starters sit. Take the Over. |
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04-10-16 | Lakers v. Rockets OVER 211.5 | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Houston – LA Lakers OVER (#503-504) Kobe Bryant’s farewell tour around the NBA has produced a significant trend involving Lakers games. LA isn’t looking to win games, hurting their lottery position. They certainly aren’t looking to play much defense, ranked among the bottom four teams in the NBA in both points allowed and shooting percentage allowed. In Kobe’s final visit to opposing arenas, the Lakers are looking to put on a show, playing one high octane shootout after the next. The results don’t lie. After Friday’s 110-102 loss at New Orleans, the Lakers are now 15-6 to the Over on Kobe’s final visit to opposing arenas. And these games haven’t been sneaking Over the total either – they’ve been flying Over, in large part because the Lakers aren’t playing a lick of defense. They’ve allowed 110 to the hapless Pelicans, 123 at offensively challenged Utah, 119 at Phoenix, 117 at Denver, 108 at Milwaukee, 126 at Chicago and 120 at Cleveland in their last eight tries in hostile arenas while going 7-1 to the Over; the lone Under coming by just 1.5 points. This is a meaningful trend, worth riding here. It’s certainly not like the Rockets want to slow the game down. Houston hasn’t played a lick of defense from Day 1 this season. They just lost a ‘must win’ game at home against the bottom feeder Suns, allowing 124 points to a bottom feeder ‘just playing out the string’ foe, the tenth time in their last dozen games allowing 100+ to their opponent. Meanwhile, Houston has hung 126, 112 and 107 on LA in their three previous meetings with the Lakers. Expect a thoroughly entertaining, high scoring shootout once again on Sunday. Take the Over. |
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04-08-16 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco – LA Dodgers OVER (#961-962) These two teams have come out of the gate swinging – quite literally. The Giants and Dodgers both rank among the Top 3 teams in the majors in batting average, hitting .317 and .313 as a team. Both teams rank in the Top 3 in the majors in runs scored. Both teams rank in the Top 10 in both OPS and on-base percentage. Yasiel Puig is on fire, as is Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Peterson, Corey Seager and Chase Utley for the Dodgers. San Fran has all eight everyday position players hitting .278 or higher, even though Buster Posey is expected to sit this evening. These two teams can hit, plain and simple, as clearly evidenced by last night’s 18 run outburst. The Giants starters haven’t been lasting long, leaving a team that hasn’t had a day off since the season started a bit thin in the bullpen already. Three of San Fran’s four starts this year have lasted 5.1 innings or less – this bullpen has been taxed. Meanwhile, the Dodgers pen got lit up last night after shutting down the light hitting Padres to open up the season. There’s plenty of potential here for late inning fireworks should we need them. But given the suspect nature of both of these starting pitchers, I’m not anticipating that we’ll need a late rally to cash this Over bet. LA’s Ross Stripling is no major league starter. He had Tommy John surgery in 2014; then threw only 67 innings at AA last year. His spring training wasn’t impressive, throwing only 11 innings over four appearances; an afterthought for new manager Dave Roberts….until the injury bug started to strike. All of a sudden LA lost Brett Anderson, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike Bolsinger, Brandon McCarthy, Frankie Montas and Brandon Beachy as potential starters, and voila – we get Stripling, who did nothing to deserve this opportunity except staying healthy on an injury riddled team, without even a single AAA outing under his belt! San Fran’s Matt Cain is a seasoned veteran, but after throwing 200+ innings for six consecutive seasons, he has declined precipitously over the last three years; unable to stay healthy or pitch effectively when he’s been healthy. A fly ball pitcher like Cain certainly won’t be helped by a strong wind blowing out to center, and the fact that current Dodgers have hit .336 against him with a .938 OPS in 235 career at bats (big sample size) gives me ample confidence to bet this one Over! Take the Over.. |
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04-08-16 | Grizzlies v. Mavs UNDER 193 | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Dallas – Memphis UNDER (#515-516) For the full season, the Mavericks have been one of the slower paced teams in the NBA, ranked #22 in possessions per game. Over their last five games, without starting point guard Deron Williams in the lineup, the Mavs have slowed it down even more, ranked dead last : #30 in pace while averaging fewer than 92 possessions per game. Clearly, that slowdown style has been working. After an ugly 7-16 stretch in which the Mavs allowed more than 111 points per game, Dallas is now 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five ballgames with JJ Barea running the point instead of D-Wil. None of their last five opponents has reached 90 points; even uptempo teams like the Rockets and T-Wolves. No surprise, then, that the Mavs have cashed five straight Under bets, and none of them have even been close, cashing by 26, 19.5, 18, 39.5 and 32.5 points. JJ Barea’s quote speaks volumes: “I like to play fast, too, but slowing it down is working for us. We've got to stay that way.” That shouldn’t be too hard to do facing a Grizzlies team playing without their starting point guard, Mike Conley, and his backup, Mario Chalmers, who was waived after he tore his Achilles. Now they’ve got Jordan Farmar manning the point, with Xavier Munford coming off the bench behind him. That’s not a duo that I expect to be able to control the pace, and easy looks have been few and far between against this defense of late. Expect a slow paced brick-fest, staying Under the total once again. Take the Under. |
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04-07-16 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 14-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Arizona – Chicago OVER (#907-908) April baseball in Arizona with the Chase Field roof open is a truly hitter friendly venue; one that’s not fully respected by the betting markets. Why not? Because the advanced metric stats don’t differentiate between ‘roof open in April’ and ‘roof closed all summer’; focusing instead on aggregate numbers. And that gives bettors a legitimate edge betting early season Overs at Chase Field, where the ball carries much better under the night sky. With 14 home runs in the first three games on this field in 2016, this isn’t just a theory – it’s current reality. And when home runs are flying out of the park, the Cubs have arguably the most dangerous lineup in baseball, loaded with big power bats. And one of the keys to this wager is that many of those bats come from the left side. Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber all take left handed at bats; very bad news for D-backs starter Ruby De La Rosa. Last year against lefties, De La Rosa’s splits were downright ugly: a .382 on base percentage (more than 50 points higher than the league average) and a .567 slugging percentage (MLB average was .407). This is a bad matchup for a second tier starter. Behind him, the D-backs bullpen has already been used extensively, and manager Chip Hale used his best arms last night. Chicago is a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Arizona’s lineup isn’t short on potency either, even with AJ Pollack out with a broken elbow. They pounded out 19 runs in their opening series against the Rockies, with two of the three games producing 15 runs or more. Cubs starter John Lackey isn’t known for fast starts, with only one quality outing in his first start of the season dating all the way back to 2011. The Cubs bullpen behind him is a long way from ‘elite’ status. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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04-07-16 | Raptors v. Hawks UNDER 200 | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Take Atlanta – Toronto UNDER (#703-704) There are three key factors here. First, the Raptors are playing slower and slower, now #29 out of 30 NBA teams in pace rating. Toronto now ranks below Cleveland, Miami and Memphis, averaging only about 95.3 possessions per game. Only the Jazz play slower. But Toronto went uptempo to close out March against a handful of ‘fast’ teams like Houston, New Orleans and Oklahoma City – teams that aren’t exactly know for defense either. Those fairly recent results have had an impact in the markets – this total is a notch or two too high – and they’re not primed to repeat against a defensive minded foe tonight. Secondly, the Hawks are playing truly elite defense. Atlanta ranks #1 in the NBA since the All Star Break, holding foes to 96.2 points per 100 possessions. That’s two points better than #2 San Antonio, 3 ½ points better than #3 Utah. For the full season, they’re #2 in my best set of advanced metric defensive stats. They’ve held their last seven foes to a combined 40% shooting from the floor. Forward Paul Millsap: “Our defense has been who we are through the whole season, so that's what we gotta lean on when times get tough." Thirdly, neither team has any interest in playing fast tonight. The Raptors are all about getting fully healthy for the postseason, not a team that’s particularly interested in chasing the Cavs down for the #1 seed in the East. Atlanta is coming off two losses and a sluggish game against Phoenix, with all the locker room quotes talking about how they plan to rely on their defense. Put it all together and the Under in Atlanta tonight is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Under. |
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04-06-16 | Phillies v. Reds OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati – Philadelphia OVER (#959-960) The Phillies are going to be an Over team this year. Their lineup can hit – there lots of young talent for Philadelphia after years of rebuilding. But their pitching staff is atrocious, particularly their bullpen. We saw the bullpen’s collective lack of velocity last night when a 2-1 eighth inning lead turned into a 6-2 defeat as three different relievers combined to get lit up for five runs on 40 pitches. And those were Pete Mackanin’s best arms! Even if Aaron Nola pitches well today, I’m not convinced the bullpen behind him can hold leads! The Reds, like the Phillies, have enough decent bats to be competitive, especially with a healthy Zack Cosart at the top of the batting order (three hits yesterday). But the Reds, like the Phillies, have extreme bullpen weakness. And like the Phillies, Bryan Price used his best arms out of the pen last night, leaving them considerably less fresh here. That’s particularly bad news with young lefty Brandon Finnegan on the hill, making only his fifth career start. To say that Finnegan had a rough spring training would be something of an understatement, with an ERA over 10 in six appearances. The only reason he’s getting the start today is because Cinci opened the season with four starters on the DL. That’s no recipe for success, especially on a night with a strong, gusty wind blowing out to left field. Take the Over. |
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04-02-16 | Syracuse v. North Carolina UNDER 145.5 | Top | 66-83 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 30 m | Show |
Take North Carolina – Syracuse UNDER (#813-814) I’ve got three primary reasons for this Under wager. Let’s start with the venue! NRG Arena in Houston is a football stadium, not a basketball court. This is the fourth set of NCAA Tournament games on this floor over the past six years. The nine tourney games played here during that span have gone 7-1-1 to the Under. Four of the seven Unders have stayed Under by more than 20 points – clear, right side winners. The one Over that cashed on this floor was Duke – Baylor in 2010. That game was tied 57-57 with five minutes remaining. Even after Duke got hot and hit a barrage of three’s, with a minute left, it was 72-62, still on pace to stay Under. But Baylor hit a 3 and the foul fest began. The game went Over but it wasn’t about good shooting or solid offensive flow; it was about a boatload of scramble points at the end. This is NOT a venue conducive to good offensive basketball, plain and simple. Secondly is defense. We think of North Carolina as a run-and-gun type of team, but the Tar Heels have been surprisingly sticky on the defensive end of the court. Basically, they don’t give up many transition buckets, to put it mildly. There are 351 teams in Division 1 basketball. When it comes to ‘defensive seconds per shot’ – how deep into the shot clock the defense holds the offense from taking a shot – Syracuse ranks #351 and North Carolina ranks #345. These two teams prevent quick shots like the plague, forcing opponents into a slower, halfcourt game offensively. That’s always good news for Under bettors. Third is familiarity; two teams that have faced each other twice already this year. It’s hard to throw in new wrinkles in these situations where both teams know exactly what their opponents want to do. Syracuse isn’t a good shooting team. They’ve stayed Under 135.5, 128.5 and 128.5 in this tournament already, hitting only 42% from the floor. Malachi Richardson has gotten a ton of hype, yet he’s shooting 25% from the floor from two point range in this tournament, and well under 40% from the floor this season. Meanwhile, North Carolina has faced Florida Gulf Coast, Providence, Indiana and Notre Dame in their tournament, arguably the weakest set of defenses faced in the Final Four field. The last time they were forced to play a half court game, the Tar Heels won 61-57 in a grinder against Virginia that stayed 20 points Under the total. No surprise here if we see a similar result on Saturday Night. Take the Under. |
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03-29-16 | BYU v. Valparaiso OVER 147 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Take BYU – Valpo OVER (#773-774) The full season numbers for Valparaiso indicate that they are the antithesis of BYU; a slowdown team that values every possession. That stands in sharp contrast to BYU, an uptempo squad that has only had five previous totals lower than 150 all year. Generally, the betting markets assume that the slower tempo team has more of a chance to control the pace – it’s easier to slow a team down than to speed them up. And with Valpo ranked #262 in pace for the full season (BYU is #10 in the country, always uptempo) and #8 in the country on defense, we’re seeing a relatively low total for this game. But when Valparaiso has faced other uptempo teams in recent weeks, they’ve run with them! In games against Green Bay, Detroit and Oakland – all uptempo squads that have a similar offensive approach to BYU – the Crusaders went flying Over the total, with 158+ points scored in all three contests. The full season numbers don’t tell the true story of how Valpo is playing against faster paced squads right now; hence their 6-2 mark to the Over in their last ten ballgames. BYU plays fast and loose on a neutral floor, 10-1 to the Over in their last eleven tries. Both teams have enough depth to run, and both teams are veteran squads – BYU doesn’t have a starter under the age of 21. Valpo starts three seniors and two juniors. These experienced teams are primed to take advantage of their Madison Square Garden opportunity; not the type of game where we should expect shooting percentages in the 30’s. This should be a fun one to watch! Take the Over. |
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03-22-16 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 202 | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Take Memphis – LA Lakers UNDER (#657-658) MID-DAY UPDATE: There’s a decent chance that Kobe is going to play tonight. Even if he suits up, I’m sticking with the Under……. The LA Lakers have been trending Under in a big way when Kobe Bryant sits on the sidelines in street clothes. Because this trend has only come when Kobe has been sitting – not every game, just 13 times since December – it hasn’t affected databases like a 13 game consecutive streak of Unders would do. In other words, the markets haven’t really noticed. Therefore, there’s no downwards pressure on current Lakers totals whatsoever. But the numbers themselves don’t lie. The Lakers are 13-0 to the Under in the last 13 games Kobe has sat dating back to December. And those games haven’t just been sneaking Under the total – they’ve gone Under by an AVERAGE of 17.5 points per game; a huge disparity! Best of all, this isn’t a random angle that doesn’t make any sense. Instead, it makes perfect sense! When Kobe is on the floor, the Lakers push their pace and defer to their superstar. They pass less and take quicker shots. Defense is often optional. But when Kobe sits, all of a sudden the ball really moves on offense, resulting in longer (and fewer) possessions. And without their aging star on the floor, LA has consistently brought more energy and focus to the defensive end of the court. A strong, under-the-radar angle that makes perfect sense is worthy of a wager here! Kobe has not ‘officially’ been ruled out yet. But he’s played in only one back-2-back set in the last two months, and he’s been playing every road game, giving opposing fans one last chance to check him out in person. Kobe’s last game ever in Phoenix is tomorrow night. Given his sore shoulder, I would be VERY surprised if he suited up tonight… Let’s not forget the Memphis side of this equation. While the Grizzlies have been riddled with injuries in recent weeks, sporting a roster chock full of D League guys on ten day contracts, they have gotten healthier in recent days, playing more of their ‘normal’ style of ball – slower and more defensively intense. Last night’s win in Phoenix was all about the Grizzlies ability to get stops. Point guard Lance Stephenson: "It was defense. Tony Allen came in and we got incredible stops. We were playing together defensively. We were aware." Expect more of the same tonight! Take the Under. |
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03-21-16 | Spurs v. Hornets UNDER 199 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Take Charlotte - San Antonio UNDER (#605-606). Sorry, no detailed write-up today. Teddy's write-ups will resume, as normal, on Tuesday. |
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03-17-16 | Nuggets v. Hawks UNDER 211 | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Denver UNDER (#707-708) Nuggets head coach Mike Malone is a ‘defense first’ guy. His team, however, has been very spotty on the defensive end of the court in recent weeks, to put it mildly. Their last two games have been particularly bad on the defensive end, allowing Orlando to hang 119 on them on 54% shooting just one night after allowing low scoring, slower paced Miami to score 124 against them on 60% shooting. Malone, following the loss to Orlando :”We've shown we can be a good defensive team but consistency has been a huge issue with us. I think that speaks to our age and youth. We're playing with a bunch of rookies. There are nights where we're going to be good and nights where we don't looks so good….The whole night was very disappointing. We allowed them to score 116 points and shoot 54 percent, which is just crazy. I'm very disappointed with our defensive effort tonight." Malone was so frustrated that he benched their best player, Kenneth Faried, after halftime. I’m expecting an inspired defensive effort here. The Hawks have been playing truly elite defense since the All Star Break, holding eight of their last ten opponents under 100 points. But Atlanta is coming off a crazy shootout with the Pistons last night, a game in which the scoring was inflated by some ‘Hack-a-Drummond’ strategy from head coach Mike Budenholzer. Even after that high scoring affair, the Hawks have still only allowed 92 points per game on less than 40% shooting over their last five contests. This game does NOT have the makings of a fast paced shootout. Take the Under. |
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03-13-16 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 198 | 75-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Indiana UNDER (#873-874) Atlanta’s dramatically improved play in recent weeks has largely gone under-the-radar; not a team that gets a ton of TV time or attracts talking head discussion due to their lack of superstars. Yet the Hawks have won six of their last eight, the only losses coming on the road at Golden State and Toronto. More than any other factor, Atlanta’s recent improvement has been about their defensive effort and mentality. The best advanced metric numbers I have show that the Hawks have been the #2 defensive team in the NBA since the All Star break, behind only the Spurs, information that’s taking time to diffuse its way through the betting markets. In their last seven games, the Hawks have allowed less than 90 points per game on 38% shooting. Yesterday, the Hawks defense was positively stifling against Memphis, holding the Grizzlies to 83 points on 35% shooting while committing only 14 fouls. All Star Paul Millsap, following the win, referencing the improved play from defensive stopper Thabo Sefolosha: “That’s Hawks basketball. Thabo did a great job for us. He set the tone for us – rebounding, blocked shots, defense, name it.” It’s surely worth noting that Atlanta has held Indiana to 96 points or less nine times in the last ten meetings between these two teams. Defense has not been Indiana’s weakness this year – they’ve struggled much more on the offensive end, particularly against the better defensive squads that they’ve faced. It’s surely worth noting that the Pacers haven’t played back-2-back Overs since their first two games of February; 7-0 to the Under following their last seven Over cashes like the one they had in Dallas yesterday; a game where seven different Pacers reached double digits in scoring. Don’t expect anywhere near that same level of offensive efficiency here in a game that has all the makings of a slower paced grinder. Take the Under. |
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03-08-16 | Spurs v. Wolves UNDER 208 | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – San Antonio UNDER (#703-704) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Spurs Under the total last night. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The San Antonio Spurs have become Under machines since the All Star Break; 7-0 to the Under in their last six tries. It’s easy to understand why – they’re playing championship level defense on a nightly basis. The Spurs have allowed less than 90 points per game during this seven game Under streak, while holding foes under 42% shooting from the floor. And it’s worth noting who the Spurs have been playing during this span, shutting down uptempo, high scoring squads like the Kings, Rockets and Pelicans. “San Antonio has turned up the defensive intensity another notch here in March, holding their first three foes to less than 37 points per game in the second half; shutdown efforts. Greg Popovich, as always, is understated: “The last three games our second halves have been really good defensively.” And when the Spurs are locked in on D, the Under is a bet worth making on a nightly basis!” The Spurs played uptempo in Indiana last night, taking a season high 96 shots in the game. It didn’t matter – the Under cashed again thanks to a poor shooting night without Coach Popovich on the floor (family medical emergency). On the second night of back-2-backs, coming off a loss, I’m expecting a slow pace and a better defensive effort from San Antonio here. Minnesota is gassed, playing their fourth game in five nights, with a court change in between each game. Head coach Sam Mitchell let it all hang out in a tough loss at Charlotte last night, with his starters combining for more than 190 minutes of court time. Tired legs and zero time for gameplanning make a bad offensive combo for the T-wolves this evening. Even when rested and ready, the T-wolves have had a hard time in recent meetings against this Spurs defense, averaging less than 90 points per game in the first two meetings between these teams this year. Those two previous meetings produced 196 and 191 points, yet the total tonight is set more than ten points higher than the higher scoring of the two previous affairs…..Take the Under. |
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03-07-16 | Spurs v. Pacers UNDER 195.5 | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Take San Antonio – Indiana UNDER (#505-506) The San Antonio Spurs have become Under machines since the All Star Break; 6-0 to the Under in their last six tries. It’s easy to understand why – they’re playing championship level defense on a nightly basis. The Spurs have allowed only 87 points per game during that six game Under streak, while holding foes under 42% shooting from the floor. And it’s worth noting who the Spurs have been playing during this span, shutting down uptempo, high scoring squads like the Kings, Rockets and Pelicans. San Antonio has turned up the defensive intensity another notch here in March, holding their three previous foes to less than 37 points per game in the second half; shutdown efforts. Greg Popovich, as always, is understated: “The last three games our second halves have been really good defensively.” And when the Spurs are locked in on D, the Under is a bet worth making on a nightly basis! Indiana, like San Antonio, is a team defined by their defensive identity as much as any other factor. Like the Spurs, the Pacers are stellar in transition, forcing their opponents to score against them in halfcourt sets. The Pacers, too, are cashing Under tickets – three in their last four games. San Antonio lockdown defender Kawhi Leonard has Paul George’s number defensively, holding Pacers leading scorer Paul George to a 1-14 shooting night and a season low seven points in the first meeting between these two teams. That game stayed Under the total, as have three of the last four meetings between Coach Pop and Frank Vogel. Expect more of the same tonight. Take the Under. |
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03-06-16 | Suns v. Grizzlies OVER 206 | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Memphis – Phoenix OVER (#825-826) Remember when the Grizzlies were a grind-it-out, halfcourt team that won games with elite defensive efforts? Heck, the Grizz were one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA on offense and one of the most efficient NBA teams on defense for the better part of the last five years. But all that has changed here in 2016, and it’s been changing even more as the season has progressed. A sluggish halfcourt offense has transformed into a ‘push the pace in transition’ offense. A dismal three point shooting team that ranked 29 out of 30 NBA teams in three point shots made last year has suddenly become willing to jack up all kinds of shots from downtown. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies formerly elite defensive numbers have declined precipitously Memphis has declined into a middle of the pack defensive team, currently ranked #15 in the advanced metric efficiency charts. Memphis has been riding one of the more under-the-radar trends regarding their totals at home: 20-11-1 to the Over this year. But even that trend is somewhat misleading. Memphis is 11-3 to the Over in their last 14 games here at the FedEx Forum, following a 9-8-1 start to the campaign. These games have been flying Over; one uptempo game after the next, an emerging trend worth riding here. The Suns have only one chance to win games, and head coach Earl Watson knows it – they’ve got to push the pace at every opportunity, even with the emergence of big man Alex Len as a strong low post scoring option. Watson, following a rare Suns win over the Grizzlies last week: “We probably played the most physical, aggressive team in the NBA. They hit us, they elbowed us. What did we do? We hit them back, we elbowed them, and it became a brawl. But we did not only brawl with them, we never slowed down our pace. So it wasn't an 85 to 92 victory. It was in the 100's. We had our pace, we had our aggression. We stayed focused." There’s no reason to expect a different mentality (or pace) this afternoon! Take the Over. |
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02-29-16 | Nets v. Clippers OVER 209.5 | Top | 95-105 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Take LA Clippers – Brooklyn OVER (#713-714) The Nets waived veteran sharpshooter Joe Johnson last week, and the team immediately got better. The aging veteran was forced to take a lot of ‘shot clock winding down’ contested jumpers for Brooklyn, as many of the Nets youngsters deferred to Johnson on the offensive end. The results don’t lie. Without Johnson in the lineup, the Nets have gone 2-0 SU and ATS, winning at Phoenix and at Utah. The key to both victories was Brooklyn’s improved ball movement, dishing 44 assists in those two outright upset victories. But the key here is Brooklyn’s projected point totals. They were lined at 103.5 against Phoenix, scoring 116. And they were lined at 87.5 against ‘slow the pace’ defensive minded Utah, hanging 98 on the Jazz in that contest. Nets guard Donald Sloan: "The pace that we want to play with -- we're doing it. The looks we want to get -- we're getting those. All in all, each game we're getting more fluidity with what we're trying to play." Now that’s an Over quote, if I’ve ever heard one! And considering that the Nets season long numbers still show them as one of the slowest paced offenses in the NBA, there’s legitimate residual value looking to bet Brooklyn games Over the total at this stage of the campaign. This is not a ‘max intensity’ game for the Clippers, by any stretch of the imagination. LA played a real clunker last Wednesday, losing at home to the Nuggets. But they responded well in a double digit win over Sacramento on Friday. They got the weekend off, and have a major test against Oklahoma City on this floor in their next game on Wednesday. This is NOT a spot for a ‘maximum defensive effort’ from a team that has played better D in recent weeks…..at times. Meanwhile, the Clippers offensive production continues to sizzle without Blake Griffin. They’ve hung 112+ four times in their last six games despite some relatively modest shooting percentages during that span. No surprise here if the loser of this game breaks the 100 point barrier with room to spare. Take the Over. |
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02-24-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 208 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Take Memphis – LA Lakers OVER (#511-512) Let me start with an excerpt from a ‘free play’ write-up supporting Memphis last week: “Remember when the Grizzlies were a grind-it-out, halfcourt team that won games with elite defensive efforts? The betting markets remember those days too! Heck, the Grizz were one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA on offense and one of the most efficient NBA teams on defense for the better part of the last five years. “But all that has changed here in 2016, and it changed even more at the trading deadline. A sluggish halfcourt offense has transformed into a ‘push the pace in transition’ offense. A dismal three point shooting team that ranked 29 out of 30 NBA teams in three point shots made last year has suddenly become willing to jack up all kinds of shots from downtown. “The Grizzlies have lost low post defensive stud Marc Gasol to injury. After dealing away Jeff Green and Courtney Lee at the trading deadline, embattled head coach Dave Joerger must adjust his defensive rotations, rotations which have underachieved throughout the course of the ’15-’16 campaign. The Grizzlies are a middle of the pack defensive team, currently ranked #15 in the advanced metric efficiency charts.“ Memphis has been riding one of the more under-the-radar trends regarding their totals at home: 19-9-1 to the Over this year. But even that trend is somewhat misleading. Memphis is 10-1 to the Over in their last eleven games here at the FedEx Forum, following a 9-8-1 start to the campaign. These games have been flying Over; one uptempo game after the next, an emerging trend worth riding here. The Lakers aren’t playing a lick of defense, allowing 112 points per game while opponents have shot better than 50% against them in their last five games. Two of their three games since the All Star Break have gotten to 230+, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if this game, too, is played at a frenetic pace, leading to a relatively easy Over cash. Take the Over. |
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02-22-16 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 199 | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Take Indiana – Miami OVER (#503-504) When a team dramatically changes their pace of play mid-season, it can take weeks for the betting markets to catch up. And it makes perfect sense why. NBA totals are set using weighted aggregate averages – pace of play over the last ten games, twenty games or the full season. Miami’s season long pace of play has been very slow, one of the primary reasons why Miami has been one of the best Under bets in the NBA this year. At the All Star Break, Miami was 34-18-1 to the Under in their first 53 games, averaging 94.7 possessions per 48 minutes. In two games since the break, the Heat have posted two of their four highest scoring games of the year, hanging 114 on Washington and 115 on Atlanta. They’ve averaged 102.9 possessions per 48 minutes in that small, two game sample size; a sample size that the betting markets aren’t respecting just yet. But it’s not just Miami’s pace that has changed—it’s also their mentality. Goran Dragic and Luol Deng – two major first half underachievers – have combined for 98 points, 33 rebounds and 22 assists in the two games since the break playing without All Star Chris Bosh. Hassan Whiteside is banged up, as is Dwayne Wade, two guys who really slow the Heat down, pace wise. Deng’s quote speaks volumes: “We’re not thinking, (we’re just playing).” Heat head coach Eric Spoelstra made one major philosophical adjustment over the break. He authorized his forwards – Deng, Justice Winslow and Josh McRoberts in particular – to run the floor in transition instead of just giving it to a guard and loafing down the floor into a halfcourt offensive set. Indiana is on the second of back-2-backs, making Miami even more likely to push the tempo this evening, hoping to take advantage of some tired Pacers legs defensively. The last time these two teams met in January, we saw 203 points scored without either team hitting 40% of their shots. Expect another uptempo affair here, whether Wade suits up or not. Take the Over. |
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02-15-16 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas UNDER 137.5 | Top | 67-94 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Take Kansas – Oklahoma State Under (#707-708) When a team changes their pace of play significantly in-season, it can take weeks, sometimes months, for the betting markets to catch up. That’s certainly been the case for Oklahoma State in recent weeks. The Cowboys lost starting point guard Phil Forte to a season ending elbow ligament injury back in November. His replacement, frosh Jawun Evans, filled in Forte’s shoes rather capably; the team’s leading scorer and assist man. But Evans got hurt against Texas Tech; leaving the Cowboys without anything resembling a good option at the point moving forward. And that has left head coach Travis Ford with only one choice about how to try and compete in this loaded conference – slowing down the pace drastically, and shortening the game due to fewer possessions. The results don’t lie. Since halftime of the game at Texas Tech – just after Evans got hurt – Oklahoma State has scored 203 points in 150 game minutes, an average of about 54 points per a regulation 40 minutes. All four of those games have flown Under the total by big margins – even the two games that went to overtime still cashed Under bets by 15 points or more! This is most assuredly an emerging trend worth riding! Kansas, too, has been consistently cashing Unders of late – four straight Unders and nine Unders in their last eleven games. This Jayhawks team has been playing full time since last summer, when they travelled to Korea. Only eight Jayhawks are consistent contributors for coach Bill Self; not a particularly deep team. So, off a grueling, intense, down to the wire affair against Oklahoma on Saturday, the short turnaround time ensures that Kansas isn’t going to be pushing the pace at every opportunity either, a tired squad at this stage of the campaign. This series has been very profitable for Under bettors in recent years; 4-1 to the Under in the last five meetings, including an overtime game that stayed Under with room to spare. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the Under. |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos OVER 44 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 25 m | Show |
Take Carolina - Denver OVER (#101-102) Even after all this time, the Panthers offense is still an undervalued commodity. Carolina has hung 31+ on eight of their last nine opponents. They’ve scored 27 or more points 15 times in their last 16 games, an offense that just hasn’t gotten the respect they deserve because they lack ‘big name’ superstars other than Cam Newton. And frankly, I want to be betting on Newton in a big game. This QB won a national championship as a JUCO quarterback. In his one season at Auburn, Newton led the Tigers to a national title, with a 9-1 TD-INT ratio when the pressure ratcheted up in their final three games – beating Alabama in their regular season finale, South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game and Oregon in the National Title Game. He’s brought the Panthers to the playoffs in each of the last three seasons; no playoff virgin. And his ‘I don’t get nervous in big games’ quote from the media session earlier this week is the absolute truth based on everything I’ve seen. Newton was nothing short of elite all year. He finished the season with only ten interceptions and a 99.4 QB rating, but even that doesn’t tell the true story, because it doesn’t factor in his scrambling ability as the team’s second leading rusher with ten TD’s on the ground. Greg Olson, Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess all averaged better than 14 yards per catch this season, taking advantage of Carolina’s aggressive downfield passing game. And the Panthers closed out the regular season as the #2 rushing offense in the NFL, a truly balanced attack. The Broncos stop unit is dealing with significant injury concerns in the secondary, with safeties Omar Bolden and David Bruten both banged up, while fellow safeties TJ Ward and Darian Stewart along with cornerback Chris Harris Jr are all less than 100%, dealing with nagging injuries. This is NOT a fully healthy Denver secondary at the top of their game. And Denver’s #1 ranked defense has shown cracks against the better offenses that they’ve faced, particularly away from home. In their last road test against a quality offense, the Broncos blew a 27-10 lead at Pittsburgh while getting torched for 354 yards by Ben Roethlisberger. If Denver’s pass rush doesn’t get there against Carolina’s elite offensive line, it could be a long evening for their secondary! Carolina has significant injury concerns in their secondary as well. CB’s Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere are both out following late season injuries, leaving the Panthers minus two of their top three cover cornerbacks. Safety Roman Harper, DE Jared Allen LB Thomas Davis – all impact players – will be at less than 100% if they suit up at all. Peyton Manning isn’t the QB he once was, but two week of rest and prep time are certainly a good thing for the future Hall of Famer. Denver isn’t short on big play weapons – both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have ‘take it to the house’ potential every time they catch a pass, while TE Owen Daniels caught a pair of TD passes against the Patriots. CJ Anderson has averaged better than 4.5 yards per carry in both playoff games; along with Ronnie Hillman giving the offense much needed balance. The betting markets are pounding this total down – no surprise, given the impressive season long stats that these two defenses have put up and the ongoing concerns about Manning’s arm strength at this late stage of his career. But I’m not buying that this is likely to be a low scoring game. The lookahead forecasts have Sunday as a beautiful day in Northern California with high temperatures approaching 70 and no threat of precipitation. And it’s surely worth noting that here in the 21st century, there have only been five Super Bowls that have been totaled at 46 or less: Green Bay – Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh – Arizona, New England – Carolina, Tampa Bay –Oakland and Baltimore – NY Giants. Those five Super Bowls went 5-0 to the Over. In recent years, only one of the last seven Super Bowls has produced less than 48 points. Expect more of the same in 2016. Take the OVER.
Side Discussion: PASS This is an impossible Super Bowl when it comes to betting the side at the current pointspread. If the line ever got to Carolina -7, I’d make a bet on Denver. At -4 or lower – where this line opened for a few hours after the conference championship games – I’d recommend a play on the Panthers. But with the line bouncing around between -5.5 and -6, any side bet is no better than a coin flip in my opinion. I’m not offering a Super Bowl side opinion for my clients because I don’t have one. However, I can make strong cases for betting against both teams! Here’s the case against Carolina. Super Bowl favorites have been a terrible bet in recent seasons. Only one favorite has covered in the last seven Super Bowls, and even that favorite wasn’t a ‘right side’ – Green Bay’s tight six point win over Pittsburgh, a game that turned on a fourth quarter fumble from Rashard Mendenhall. Laying points against elite, Super Bowl caliber teams simply isn’t a positive expectation wager in the modern era. And betting against teams of Denver’s caliber defensively in this pointspread range has been a disaster. Over the last ten years, teams ranked in the Top 3 defensively in the NFL have played 529 games. Only 66 of those games were losses by more than a TD. 87.5% of the time, the elite defensive teams win or lose by a TD or less. Three weeks ago, the NFC was in a pick ‘em range in the Super Bowl against the AFC. After Denver beat New England on Championship Sunday, the lookahead line for a Panthers- Broncos Super Bowl was -2.5 or -3. The Panthers have most assuredly been an undervalued commodity all season, but they’re most assuredly not undervalued for this game! And Denver has lost only one game by more than a TD all year – the game where an obviously injured Peyton Manning threw four interceptions against KC and subsequently sat out the next two months. But Carolina is better than Denver. I know that; you know that – anyone who’s been watching these games knows that. The Broncos are here only because their opponents played poorly, not because Denver played well. The Pats looked completely lost in the AFC Championship Game, as bad as game as New England played all year, just out of sync, particularly on the offensive line. The Panthers offensive line was (and is) arguably the best OL in the NFL this year, poised to match up much better against the Broncos than the Pats OL did. Denver’s Divisional Round win over Pittsburgh was similar – a decent Broncos team taking advantage of an injury riddled foe at home; not a great Broncos team dominating from start to finish. And while I thought this line might fly all the way to -7, it’s pretty clear as I write this on Wednesday that we’re not going to see the pointspread get that high at the vast majority of sportsbooks. Carolina might be the ‘public’ side here, but there’s ample support for the Broncos in the marketplace at current numbers – this line isn’t going to run up any higher. And if the Broncos fall behind, they’re in real trouble – Manning had one completion of longer than seven yards in the second half against the Patriots; not a team built to rally from significant deficits. The Broncos elite defense has some key injuries in the secondary. They haven’t left the friendly confines of Denver since before Christmas, and that last road game wasn’t pretty, allowing the Steelers to rally from behind and hang 34 on this stop unit. Cam Newton is a proven winner in big games, dating back to a JUCO national title and a ‘real’ national title with Auburn. Peyton Manning has come up short again and again in his biggest games, again, dating back to his days at Tennessee and continuing throughout his NFL career. Manning has been the best QB in football for the last 15 years, but he’s only got one ring to show for it. Even that ring comes with an asterisk – the opposing QB in the Super Bowl was Rex Grossman, who’s fourth quarter pick six was the difference maker. In this pointspread range, I’m simply not willing to fade the superior team with the superior quarterback. Sharp bettors don’t force action just to have action. There are a good handful of prop bets that stand out to me as being worthy of a wager, and I do lean towards the Over on Super Bowl Sunday. But from a side perspective, I cannot and will not be forced into making a coin flip type wager just because it’s the only game on TV on Sunday Night……. |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 47.5 | Top | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 127 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona – Carolina OVER (#313-314) We’ve got two underrated, truly elite level offenses, both of whom consistently take ‘big play’ shots down the field. We’ve got two of the three quarterbacks with a legitimate case for an MVP award this year facing off against one another. We’ve also got a pair of defenses that have suffered a barrage of key injuries in recent weeks, leaving both teams without key members of their defensive backfield moving forward. The early weather forecast for Sunday is for calm conditions with gametime temperatures in the 40’s. Put it all together and it’s not hard to make a case for the Over in the NFC Championship Game. The Panthers offense has been searching for respect from the betting markets and the national pundits all year. I’ve read more than one playoff preview still referencing the Kelvin Benjamin injury from the first week of the preseason as if it was still meaningful in some way. It isn’t. Greg Olson, Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess all averaged better than 14 yards per catch this season, taking advantage of Carolina’s aggressive downfield passing game. Cam Newton was nothing short of elite all year. He finished the season with only ten interceptions and a 99.4 QB rating, but even that doesn’t tell the true story, because it doesn’t factor in his scrambling ability as the team’s second leading rusher with ten TD’s on the ground. RB Jonathan Stewart was back on the field last week, becoming the first running back to eclipse the 100 yard barrier against the Seahawks since November, 2014. This Panthers offense has hung 31+ on seven of their last eight opponents. They’ve scored 27 or more points 14 times in their last 15 games, an offense that just hasn’t gotten the respect they deserve. Meanwhile, Arizona had the second highest scoring offense in the NFL this year, averaging more than 30 points per game. They rank #1 in total yards and #2 in passing yards. Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown both had more than 1000 receiving yards this year, with Michael Floyd not far behind. Rookie RB David Johnson, too, has big play ability, and he’s a legitimate threat catching passes out of the backfield. ‘Zona has been held under 26 points only five times in 17 games. But the real key to this wager is that two elite defenses have both suffered major injury losses of late. Carolina’s banged up secondary was at least a part of their second half meltdown against Russell Wilson and company. Once Wilson found his stride, the Panthers had no answers, allowing three TD’s and a FG (that could have been a TD if they had more time) on Seattle’s five second half drives. With Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere both out following late season injuries, the Panthers enter the NFC Championship Game minus two of their top three cover cornerbacks. Carolina also lost Hall of Fame caliber pass rusher Jared Allen in the win over Seattle; bad news for a team that lacks quality pass rushing depth. For a team that saw reserve defenders like Cortland Finnegan get lit up last week, the loss of a key pass rusher certainly doesn’t help. Meanwhile, Arizona lost pro bowl safety Tyrann Mathieu in Week 16. Without him, their secondary got torched in Week 17 against the Seahawks, while allowing two late bombs for the game tying TD by the Packers last Saturday Night. And slot cornerback Justin Bethel was forced to leave the game last week, not at 100% here, bad news in a game where he’s slated to match up with the speedster Ginn. When these two teams met in the playoffs last year, it was Ryan Lindley vs. Newton, and the Cardinals didn’t reach 100 net yards of total offense. The game still flew Over the total. Expect this year’s matchup results in another high scoring affair in a game featuring two teams with strong defensive reputations, reputations that are better than these defenses actually are right now! Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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01-03-16 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 47 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 56 m | Show | |
Take New England – Miami UNDER (#305-306) The Patriots offense right now is a shell of what it was two months ago, when New England had the most potent offense in the NFL. New England scored 27+ in each of their first nine games; averaging nearly five TD’s per game during that span. That was then; this is now, but the residual effect from that early success is still factored heavily into the current betting marketplace total. The Pats managed 13 points on offense last week. They’ve cracked 30 only once in their last eight games. Their offensive line is in shambles, with every single starter from back in September either out or banged up. Tom Brady is on pace to take the most sacks he’s taken since he was a rookie. In years past, and even earlier this season, Brady was outstanding at getting the ball out to his possession receivers very quickly, finding Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola again and again. But those two guys are both hurt as well. All of New England’s top running backs are on injured reserve, forcing Belichick to sign tired retread Stephen Jackson last week. Jackson responded with a 2.1 yards per carry average in the loss against the Jets. Miami’s defense is a long way from being elite, but so is New England’s offense. I do NOT expect the Pats to put up points in bunches here. The Dolphins managed only a single touchdown when they faced New England earlier in the season. They scored only 12 points last week against an injury riddled Colts defense and only 14 the week before against an injury riddled Chargers D. Miami’s offensive problems are deeper than New England’s. Their offensive line is in terrible shape; without a single fully healthy starter and no depth whatsoever. QB Ryan Tannehill, too, is nowhere near 100%, still suffering from the six sacks he took last week, and the leg injury that has limited him in practice this week. Meanwhile, New England has done an excellent job stuffing the run all year and they rank #2 in the NFL with 48 sacks. Look for the defenses to control the flow here. Expect the Pats to burn clock if they get the lead, and to utilize a very conservative offensive gameplan. Expect the Dolphins to lack passion and execution on offense at the tail end of a disappointing campaign. And expect this game to stay Under the total with room to spare! Take the Under. |
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01-02-16 | West Virginia v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 43-42 | Win | 100 | 59 h 18 m | Show |
Take Arizona St – West Virginia OVER (#279-280) Why did Arizona State finish 6-6 in a year where they were expected to compete for the PAC-12 title? I’ll let head coach Todd Graham tell you: “We gave up too many big plays and we didn’t score enough points.” I expect only one of those two problems to get solved on Saturday Night in the Cactus Bowl. Arizona State is going to blitz Mountaineer QB Skyler Howard again and again. Mountaineers head coach Dana Holgorsen: ”They put pressure on you every single time you snap the football. They are as good as anyone in the country with forcing negative plays, whether its sacks or tackles for loss.” For some QB’s this would be a major problem, and Howard did take 29 sacks during the regular season. But Howard saw all kinds of pressure this year, and he got better and better at handling that pressure as the season progressed; avoiding the mistakes and poor decisions that plagued him during the Mountaineers four game midseason losing streak. Coach Holgorsen is no dummy. With three weeks to prepare, he’s emphasized blitz protection in practice, while designing a gameplan to produce big plays in bunches against a blitzing D. Arizona State’s biggest weakness was a propensity to give up big plays. West Virginia has seven different players with a 50+ yard TD on offense this year – they’ve got the personnel to beat Arizona State’s defensive gameplan. Holgorsen isn’t shy about pushing tempo either – this game is likely to have far more possessions than the average college football game, good news for Over bettors. Coach Graham’s emphasis throughout his bowl practices has been about solving the second of his two problems “scor(ing) enough points”. Graham’s entire career has been predicated on pushing the pace offensively, getting opposing defenses winded and out of sync. For extended stretches this season, his offense was inefficient, but they came on like gangbusters down the stretch, hanging 52 on Arizona and 46 on Cal (both of whom were good enough to win their bowl games), while gaining well over 550 yards in both contests. Sun Devils QB Mike Bercovici has a downfield arm. Their top three backs all averaged better than 5.3 yards per carry and eight different receivers caught touchdown passes. West Virginia’s defense feasted on the weak down the stretch, facing texas, Kansas, Iowa State and Kansas State in their final four games – the four weakest offenses in the Big 12. But when asked to step up in class against uptempo teams, we saw West Virginia allow 146 points in losses to Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU. This game is not likely to be anything resembling a defensive struggle. Two uptempo attacks and two defenses that give up big plays set us up for what should be a highly entertaining shootout on Saturday Night! Take the Over. |
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12-29-15 | Air Force v. California OVER 67 | 36-55 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Air Force – California OVER (#241-242) Where do the stops come from in this game? I’m not expecting many punts, let me put it that way. Air Force closed out their conference season by cashing seven consecutive Mountain West Overs. Facing teams that see the option every year – teams that, in theory, should be better prepared than most to stop them – the Falcons ran wild, averaging about 37 points per game. Cal hasn’t seen an option offense this year, or last, or the year before that – the first triple option offense they’ve faced in the Sonny Dykes era. They don’t really have the personnel to even simulate an option offense in practice. I’m not convinced in the slightest that the extra time to prepare for Air Force is going to help Cal’s mediocre defense one iota. That being said, Cal is a TD favorite here for a reason. Coach Dykes is recruiting heavily in Texas, going so far as to hold an open practice on Saturday so that local high school players and coaches could check out his playbook in action. QB Jared Goff will be playing on Sunday’s next year. Ten different receivers caught at least one TD from Goff this year and each of the Bears top four running backs averaged at least five yards per carry. The Bears hung 48 and 54 in their last two home games, and hung 45 on Texas in September in their last visit to the Lone Star state. Air Force didn’t see an offense comparable to Dykes spread attack all year either, and they, like Cal, have no way to simulate what their opponent is trying to do on the practice field. The Falcons secondary is legitimately outclassed here, setting the stage for what should be a high scoring shootout on a clear day in Ft Worth. Take the Over. |
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12-27-15 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take KC – Cleveland UNDER (#117-118) Two weeks ago, the Chiefs faced a struggling foe at home in nasty weather conditions. The end result was a 10-3 KC win against San Diego, a game that stayed Under the total by more than four touchdowns. Expect more of the same this Sunday in a game that is totaled far too high given the matchups, current form and on-field weather conditions! It’s going to be cold, rainy and windy at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, with showers, wind gusts past the 20 mph range and temperatures in the mid-30’s at kickoff. For a conservative offensive head coach like Andy Reid, the conditions here are key to this wager. Reid has been remarkably consistent from a strategy perspective during the Chiefs current eight game winning streak – build a lead and sit on it, relying on their defense to win games, not their offense. But KC’s totals are inflated because of all the non-offensive scores they’ve had in recent weeks. KC flew over the total against Baltimore last week with three cheap TD’s – two defensive scores for KC against Jimmy Clausen and a Hail Mary TD for the Ravens just before halftime. All three of those TD’s were needed to cash the Over in that game. The Chiefs defense came through with two TD’s in their win at Oakland. They had a pick six in their previous win against the Chargers. One or two defensive touchdowns won’t move the needle on a team’s total in any given game, but when we’re talking about a bevy of defensive scores, week after week, they really start to have an impact. That’s why this total is lined at 42.5 or 43 instead of 39 or 40. This is a team that consistently settles for field goals in the red zone on offense, ranked outside the top half of the NFL in red zone execution. The Browns are much worse than KC when it comes to scoring TD’s in the red zone. In fact, Cleveland ranks dead last in the NFL in red zone TD % on offense. Over their last eight games, the Browns have averaged just 14 points per contest, one of the league’s weakest offensive teams. In their last four games away from home, this offense has produced 13, 9, 10 and 6 points. Facing an elite defense in nasty weather in a meaningless Week 16 game is not any sort of recipe for an offensive turnaround this week! And no team in the NFL has played more conservatively with a second half lead than Andy Reid’s Chiefs this year. Their offense managed one field goal after halftime last week, just playing ball control with a double digit lead. They were scoreless after halftime the previous week, letting that 10-0 first half hold up for the win. We can count on Reid’s conservative approach – run the ball, burn some clock, use punter Colquitt as a weapon – if they have the lead here, which they should, considering that they are double digit favorites. Even if KC sits a handful of defensive starters this game has all the makings of a low scoring defensive struggle. Big Ticket: Take the Under.. |
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12-19-15 | Arkansas State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 67 | 28-47 | Win | 100 | 77 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Arkansas State – Louisiana Tech OVER (#209-210) We’ve got two uptempo offenses led by two elite level mid-major quarterbacks on the fast track of the New Orleans Superdome (no weather to worry about) on Saturday Night. We can and should expect a high scoring affair, filled with quick strike scores and solid red zone execution leading to touchdowns, not field goals. This game has all the makings of a fun early bowl shootout, primed to fly Over the total with ease. These two teams are 16-8 to the Over between them this season; as the betting markets never really caught up to how explosive their offenses were. That was particularly true for Arkansas State, who began the season with a banged up Fredi Knighton behind center. Knighton missed three full games and part of a fourth. The Red Wolves were held to a TD or less twice in their first four games, and cashed three Under tickets in the process. But they haven’t cashed a single Under since Knighton returned to the field in October; 8-0 to the Over in their last eight tries. Knighton is a tough dual threat QB to handle. He led Arkansas State to 44 points in their bowl against Toledo last year, throwing for more than 400 yards and five touchdowns, but the Rockets scored 63 against the spotty Red Wolves defense. I’m not convinced that a stop unit which allowed the likes of Georgia State, Idaho, South Alabama and New Mexico State to score four or more TD’s against them is primed to shut down senior Jeff Driskel and the potent Bulldogs offense either! Driskel is the #2 non-Power 5 QB on most early draft boards, behind only Paxton Lynch from Memphis. The Florida transfer led his team to 38+ in half of their games, including five multi-TD outings in his last six contests. Five different Bulldogs receivers had TD catches of 50 yards or more, led by the explosive Trent Taylor. And senior RB Kenneth Dixon averaged better than 5.5 yards per carry for the third time in four seasons, notching 17 TD’s on the ground. But Skip Holtz’s defense is every bit as vulnerable as the Arkansas State stop unit. La Tech is here because they couldn’t stop Southern Miss in the C-USA title game, allowing 58 points and 555 yards while forcing only four punts. La Tech, in particular, had their problems against the better rushing teams that they faced, bad news against the Red Wolves potent ground game. Look for these two offenses to light up the scoreboard in what should be a very entertaining Saturday Night affair. Take the Over. |
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12-05-15 | North Carolina v. Clemson OVER 67 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina – Clemson OVER (#329-330) I’m not expecting too many stops when these two high octane, quick tempo offenses take the field on Saturday Night. Both teams rank among the Top 15 in the nation in offensive efficiency and explosive plays (their percentage of drives that average at least ten yards per play). When these two teams met last year, we saw a 50-35 final score, flying Over the total. The previous meeting was 59-38, flying Over the total by six touchdowns. And there’s absolutely no reason to expect a dramatic change on a clear, cool night in Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game. We already know how good these offenses are. In four November wins, North Carolina has scored an average of 50 points per game, despite the fact that they were on complete cruise control in the second half of several of those blowouts. Larry Fedora’s team plays fast and they create big plays in bunches. With a third year starter in dual threat QB Marquise Williams, its hard to picture a Clemson defense playing under enormous pressure – it’s hard for a team like Clemson to be ranked #1 at this stage of the season, needing only one win to reach the Playoffs -- to shut them down. Clemson’s offense is as elite as it gets. DeShaun Watson in his second year behind center, has averaged 8.7 yards per pass ATTEMPT while running for more than 750 yards and nine TD’s. RB Wayne Galman is a big play waiting to happen and nine different receivers have caught at least one touchdown pass. The Tigers have scored 33+ seven times in their last eight games, and can be expected to exceed that point total again here. Both defensive coordinators have gotten ample mainstream media love. Brent Venables spent a dozen years coaching Oklahoma’s defense with Bob Stoops, an impressive pedigree. North Carolina’s Gene Chizik was certainly a splashy hire, and the Tar Heels defense is vastly improved compared to last year’s sorry unit that allowed 39 points and 498 yards per game, ranked #117 in the country. But neither of these defenses is elite; not even close. North Carolina’s defense has been torched repeatedly in the second half down the stretch, unable to get key stops against Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech and NC State in their last four contests, allowing 83 points after halftime of those four games. Chizik hasn’t enjoyed a major personnel upgrade from last year, and his stop unit lacks quality depth, wearing down by December. The Clemson offense they’ll face on Saturday is, by far, the best offense they’ve seen all year. Clemson has more defensive playmakers than UNC, but this is not a loaded unit. They couldn’t stop South Carolina’s anemic attack last year and benefitted from particularly rainy weather in wins over Florida State and Notre Dame – the weather slowed those two offenses down as much as Clemson’s defense did. Expect a good, old fashioned Saturday Night shootout in a game that should be highly entertaining, loaded with quick strike, big play TD’s from start to finish. Take the Over. |
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11-20-15 | Cincinnati v. South Florida OVER 64 | 27-65 | Win | 100 | 33 h 13 m | Show | |
Take South Florida – Cincinnati OVER (#315-316) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner betting against the Bearcats defense last week. Cinci hung 49 points on Tulsa, notching 33 first downs and more than 650 yards of offense while scoring TD’s on every red zone opportunity, not settling for field goals. They’ve scored at least 30 in four straight contests and seven of their last eight. QB Gunner Kiel will be playing on Sunday’s. Nine different receivers average more than one catch per game. Three different running backs have more than 600 rushing yards, all three averaging more than five yards per carry. This Bearcats offense is no joke, and they’re very capable of wearing teams down in the second half. But Cinci’s defense is another story entirely, particularly on the road. As indicated above, Cinci scored seven TD’s last week and they still didn’t cover the spread. That defense has been noticeably worse in hostile environments. Miami-Ohio hung a season high 33 on the Bearcats D. Memphis hung 53 on them, BYU 38. Their next strong defensive effort on the road this year will be their first. USF, too, has developed at least a modest home/road dichotomy. But the Bulls dichotomy isn’t ‘defense bad on the road’ like Cinci – it’s ‘offense good at home’! They’ve hung 38+ four times in five previous home games. QB Quinton Flowers home/road splits are surprisingly sharp: 64% completions and only two interceptions at home. RB Marlon Mack is a legitimate playmaker and a tough stop for the Bearcats D, making Flowers that much more effective. And it’s worth noting that this is the strongest offense they’ve faced since losing at Florida State back in early September. I’m expecting some real fireworks on Friday Night, sending this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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11-18-15 | Bulls v. Suns OVER 202.5 | 103-97 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Chicago – Phoenix OVER (#519-520) The Bulls came into the season expecting to push the pace at every reasonable opportunity under new head coach Fred Hoiberg. They’ve done that at a modest level, currently tied for #10 in the NBA in pace ratings, averaging more than 100 possessions per game. But despite their newfound uptempo nature, Chicago has cashed only three Over bets in their first ten games. A good portion of those Under cashes came against opponents who don’t share the Bulls uptempo mentality. They cashed an Under against Detroit, another against Cleveland, a third against Indiana and a fourth against Orlando, none of whom have played anything resembling uptempo basketball thusfar. In other words, Chicago’s totals are in a deflated range right now, in large part because they haven’t faced opponents who want to run. That’s not the case tonight! Jeff Hornacek’s Suns are all about pace this year; ranked #2 in the NBA; averaging more than 103 possessions per game. Since an ugly home loss on opening night, Phoenix has scored 105+ five times in six tries. On their current three game homestand, they’ve scored 118 or higher twice; flying Over the total both times. The betting markets seem to be concerned about the injury to Derrick Rose, listed as doubtful with a sprained ankle. That’s why this total is lower than it was in either matchup last year, when the Bulls were NOT an uptempo team; games that were lined at 204.5 and 212.5. I’m not overly concerned if Rose doesn’t suit up – Kirk Hinrich is all offense, no defense, and it’s not like Jimmy Butler, Aaron Brooks, E’Twuan Moore can’t distribute the basketball effectively. Look for tonight’s game to be a wildly entertaining uptempo affair that flies Over the total. Take the Over. |
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11-14-15 | Magic v. Wizards UNDER 204.5 | 99-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Orlando – Washington UNDER (#503-504) The Wizards haven’t played much defense in recent games, and head coach Randy Wittman is not amused. Washington just gave up 125 to Oklahoma City, allowing the Thunder to shoot better than 50% from the floor. That came on the heels of allowing 114 to Atlanta and 118 to Boston in their previous two games, both ‘no-shows’ on the defensive end of the floor. Coach Wittman, following the loss to OKC on Wednesday: “We don't defend. Guys drive by us at will. We don't have any toughness. We don't hit anybody and rebound the ball….We don't get dirty. And that's on me. We've got three days to find the guys that'll play that way. We're just too soft of a team right now… We let teams take it to us the last three games." Point guard John Wall: “You score 100 points in this league, you think you can win those games. But if you're giving up almost 130, you have no chance. If we're not communicating and talking out there, there's going to be breakdowns, and that's when we're giving teams uncontested layups. We're just giving guys easy freedom to run and flow anything they want to on offense." If ever there’s a game to expect maximum effort defensively from Washington, this is it. The Magic certainly don’t push the pace. They’ve got their best low post defender, Nikola Vucevic, back in the lineup. The Magic haven’t allowed an opponent to reach 100 in their last five contests, and they’ve held their opponents below 42% shooting for the season, a scrappy defensive ballclub. Both the Wizards and the Magic rank among the bottom quartile of the league in offensive efficiency this season. Their lone previous meeting was an 88-87 defensive struggle, much like the final three meetings last year, all of which stayed Under the total. Washington’s totals are inflated right now based on their season long stats, but this is one game where the season long stats give a very misleading picture compared to what we can expect to see tonight. Take the Under. |
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11-14-15 | NC State v. Florida State OVER 54 | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Florida State – NC State OVER (#157-158) I have no hesitation looking for misleading statistical profiles to ‘fade’ here in November. Based on pure stats, NC State has an elite level defense, one of the top stop units in the country. But the Wolfpack haven’t stepped up in class very much this season, to put it mildly. It’s not hard putting up elite level defensive numbers against the likes of Troy (early season, before they found a QB), Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Wake Forest and Boston College, all offensive bottom feeders here in 2015. NC State has faced a couple of tests against better offenses. They lost at Louisville and then lost at Virginia Tech the following week, allowing more than 200 rushing yards in both of those contests. In their one ‘real’ test against a dynamic offensive foe (Clemson), NC State allowed seven touchdowns at home, flying over the total with plenty of room to spare. This defense is NOT as good as the stats (and hence the relatively low total) would indicate. I’m not convinced that NC State is going to get many stops this week either. They gave up 56 to Florida State last year and 49 to the Seminoles in 2013, both high scoring shootouts that flew Over the total. FSU RB Dalvin Cook is healthy again, coming off a truly impressive 194 rushing yard effort against Clemson. And the Seminoles will have a healthy senior QB in Everett Golson back behind center this week; opening up the passing game as well. Head coach Jimbo Fisher after practice yesterday: “Thursday practice, it was the best one we’ve had, offense especially. (The quarterback situation has been) good. I’ve been pleased. We’ll start Everett. He had a real good week of practice and I liked what he did.” This team hung 45 on Syracuse and 41 on Louisville in their last two home games, effectively running the ball to set up the passing game in both contests. No surprise here if the Seminoles get into the 40’s again here. But NC State is more than capable of trading points with Florida State for extended stretches of this ballgame. Their top two running backs are gone (one injury, one dismissed from the program, leaving the bulk of the offense on the broad shoulders of senior QB Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has avoided mistakes like the plague, throwing only two interceptions in 250 pass attempts. Nine different receivers have at least one catch of more than 20 yards. This offense hung 41 on the Seminoles last year, gaining more than 500 yards in the process. Anything close to that level of performance on Saturday and we’ll cash this Over with ease. Take the Over. |
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11-06-15 | Temple v. SMU OVER 50.5 | Top | 60-40 | Win | 100 | 52 h 14 m | Show |
Take SMU – Temple OVER (#319-320) When these two teams met in Dallas two years ago, we saw a 59-49 shootout that flew Over the total. SMU had 728 yards of offense; Temple had 593. The two teams combined for 16 scores, with only eight punts. Yes, Temple’s defense is waaaay better now than it was two years ago. But make no mistake about it – so is the Owls offense. And with the betting markets pounding the Under in early week betting, giving us – by far – the lowest SMU total of the season to work with this week, I have no hesitation to pull the trigger on an Over wager on Friday Night. My clients and I cashed a winner betting against SMU last week. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “SMU had one of the worst defenses in all of college football last year and that stop unit lacks everything again this year, short on size, speed, talent and depth. Chad Morris’ stop unit allowed 48+ five times in their first six games and the only reason they allowed “only” 38 points last week was because South Florida’s best offensive weapon, Marlon Mack, didn’t suit up. Playing their ninth straight game (now tenth) without a bye, I don’t expect the Mustangs to be able to control the line of scrimmage on defense, not even a little bit.” Temple head coach Matt Rhule blasted his team after what he thought was a lethargic effort in practice on Tuesday, noting that the Owls were struggling to put their loss to Notre Dame in the rear view mirror. I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Temple shows up flat and gets gashed here by SMU’s offense. The Mustangs have a solid QB in Matt Davis and an aggressive, downfield passing game led by NFL prospect WR Courtland Sutton, and Temple’s defense is more than a bit banged up following that battle with the Fighting Irish. SMU plays fast; something Temple hasn’t seen much of their year either. But Temple is laying double digits on the road here for a reason. The Mustangs defense is truly weak, and the Owls offense is vastly underrated. PJ Walker is now a third year starter at quarterback, capable of completing downfield throws in a way that he couldn’t last year. And while big play RB Jahad Thomas is banged up, no sure thing to play, the Owls have solid depth behind him, capable of repeated success on the ground against this bottom tier stop unit. Take the Over. |
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10-31-15 | Stanford v. Washington State OVER 61 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 52 m | Show |
Take Stanford – Washington State OVER (#149-150) My clients and I have cashed winning bets supporting either Washington State or the Washington State Over three times in the last four weeks. In this instance, the Over is the superior play for one key reason – the Cougars aren’t primed to shut down the Cardinal. That being said, Washington State’s Air Raid offense is capable of moving the ball with their passing game, setting the stage for what should be a relatively high scoring shootout. The Cardinal have scored 31+ in every game since their opener at Northwestern. They’re balanced on offense, with senior QB Kevin Hogan more than capable of winging it downfield while Christian McCaffrey is a dynamic talent both running the football and catching passes out of the backfield. The Cardinal have scored 55 and 44 on their last two visits to Pullman and they ran for 5.8 yards per carry against the Cougs last year. Meanwhile, Washington State’s undersized defense has allowed 31+ in every FBS game this year except against low scoring Wyoming. They wore down in the desert heat at Arizona last week, allowing TD drives on each of the Wildcats last three possessions, and I would expect that fatigue to carry over here. Read this article from the local papers in Washington to understand exactly why the Cardinal offense is primed to give Wassou troubles: http://www.spokesman.com/cougs/stories/2015/oct/29/stanford-beef-gives-cougars-a-ton-of-reasons-for-c/ But this is the best Washington State offense that Mike Leach has had since he arrived in Pullman. QB Luke Flak threw six touchdown passes last week, completing throws to eleven different receivers, a very diverse passing catching crew. Stanford’s rebuilt defense (don’t forget that the Cardinal had four defensive starters drafted into the NFL last Spring, while losing eight defensive starters overall) has shown vulnerability to downfield passing games – both USC and UCLA moved the football against them. The betting markets have bet this total down from the opener, noting that Stanford’s ball control style makes for a game with fewer possessions. That being said, Stanford has cashed four Overs in their last five games; Washington State has cashed three straight Overs, and I would expect the majority of possessions in this matchup will produce points, not punts. Take the Over. |
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10-29-15 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
Take New England – Miami UNDER (#101-102) Three key factors in play here. First, Miami’s totals are being priced too high based on their ‘offensive explosions’ over the last two weeks since Dan Campbell took over for Joe Philbin. Make no mistake about it – Miami’s resurgence on offense has had everything to do with their opponents’ lack of defense. Last week they ran 29 plays in the first half for 404 yards and five touchdowns. Houston’s tackling was truly abysmal. Ryan Tannehill threw nothing but dinks and dunks, but the Texans stop unit failed to make stops. It was a very similar story the previous week against Tennessee – lots of short gainers that turned into big plays due to a weak opposing D. That’s not going to happen against the Patriots, especially on a short week with travel. Second, these are two really good defenses. New England’s offensive line is a mess right now, riddled with key injuries. The Dolphins defensive resurgence – unlike their offensive resurgence – is very real, with Ndamakung Suh and Cameron Wake getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks on nearly every snap. Tom Brady and the Pats gave up on the run completely last week, instead relying on short, quick routes to get the ball out of Brady’s hands quickly. Expect more of the same here. New England, like Miami, isn’t primed to score a bunch of quick strike TD’s this week. Third, these Thursday Night games are not primed to be well executed, high scoring affairs, particularly with an inexperienced coaching staff involved. We saw that clearly AGAIN last week, when Jim Tomsula’s 49ers managed only a field goal in their loss to the Seahawks, a game that stayed almost three full TD’s under the total. The Falcons relatively inexperienced staff didn’t have Atlanta ready on offense for their road game at New Orleans. Miami scored only 13 points on this field last year; a series that has been trending Under in recent seasons (4-2 to the Under L6, both Overs came by a single score). We’ve seen two previous Thursday Night games totaled in the 50’s this year (Steelers – Patriots and Falcons – Saints); both have cashed Under tickets. On a rainy, windy night in Foxboro, expect more of the same here. Take the Under. |
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10-24-15 | SMU v. South Florida OVER 58.5 | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take USF – SMU OVER (#383-384) The full season numbers don’t tell the full story for either one of these teams, yet the betting markets seem to be fixating on those numbers by betting this total down from the opener of 65. USF’s offense has improved, week by week. QB Quinton Flowers is finally showing real signs of progress, throwing for 559 yards in a pair of Bulls victories over the past two weeks. This offense was anemic in September, but the Bulls ran all over Syracuse two weeks ago, and last week, they produced four TD’s and 461 yards against a strong UConn defense on the road, showing big play potential against a team that’s been exceptionally good at avoiding big plays against them all year. It’s surely worth noting that SMU’s 4-2-5 alignment on defense is very similar to what USF faces in practice every day; not a particularly complex or unfamiliar scheme for the home favorite. SMU’s offense is as explosive as anything that USF has seen all year. Bulls defensive coordinator Tom Allen: “It's the most talented group of skill guys, collectively, that we've seen. From receivers to running backs to quarterback, the whole combined group to me really has stood out…..They've really kind of changed the whole culture of that place offensively. I kind of thought (Morris) would, but he got some really good young freshmen that have had an immediate impact that I think has kind of sped up the process" Bulls senior defensive back Jamie Byrd: “They’ve scored on some great teams — some teams that run the same defensive style that we run. And they have great players and great receivers.” Head coach Willie Taggart knows that his team is going to have to put up points in bunches to win this week: “(SMU is a) Very talented football team that can score points on anyone. It's gonna be a challenge for our defense.” Mustangs head coach Chad Morris designed Clemson’s big play offense last year, and in his first year as a head coach, he’s been able to create big plays in bunches with an offense that has hung more than 30 points per game. QB Matt Davis was a Top 10 prospect coming out of high school, a dual threat Texas A&M transfer. He’s averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season, while throwing only two INT’s all year, despite facing the likes of TCU, Baylor and Houston already. 6-4 receiver Courtand Sutton is a threat to take any catch to the house, and Morris isn’t shy about dialing up deep shots for quick strike scores. With an extra week to devise a gameplan coming off their bye, I’m expecting the Mustangs to approach or exceed that 30 points per game average. SMU’s defense, however, is truly a bottom of the barrel unit. They rank 125th in total defense, and #117 against the pass. USF may not have star RB Marlon Mack, who is banged up again this week (hence the big move downwards on this total). That being said, backup RB’s D’Ernest Johnson and Darius Tice combined for 5.6 yard per carry against UConn last week, more than capable of putting up big numbers against an SMU stop unit that doesn’t get stops; a unit that has given up 48+ five times in six games on the heels of their 41 ppg allowed last year. With no rain expected in Tampa, look for this game to produce big plays in bunches, flying Over the total with relative ease. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 49 | Top | 7-27 | Loss | -108 | 80 h 11 m | Show |
Take Philly – New York Giants OVER (#275-276) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ Big Ticket winner supporting the Eagles last week against New Orleans. Philly was not particularly efficient on offense in that game. Sam Bradford threw a pair of red zone interceptions. The Eagles settled for four field goals. And yet when the smoke cleared, Philly had put 39 points up on the scoreboard while gaining more than 500 yards of offense, their single best showing of the season. Here’s a brief excerpt from my write-up supporting the Eagles last week: “(Philly’s) second half rally against Washington was as well as this offense has played since the preseason. We also saw signs of Philly’s offensive capability in their second half rally at Atlanta back in Week 1. An explosive, quick strike offense like that of the Eagles is a disaster waiting to happen for this sorry Saints stop unit.” I’m not convinced in the slightest that the Giants stop unit is much better than that of New Orleans. The G-men allowed 27 and 34 in their two matchups against the Eagles last year, and Philly hung 36 on the G-men on this field in 2013. The Giants made Colin Kaepernick look good last Sunday, something that no other defense in the NFL has done this year, and they’ve been outyarded four times in five games. With neither a devastating pass rush nor an elite level secondary, I’m not anticipating a banner game from Tom Coughlin’s D here against a Philly offense that ranks #2 in the NFL in pace of play. But the Eagles defense is also loaded with question marks, an underachieving unit through the first five weeks of the campaign. They couldn’t hold late leads in losses to the Falcons and Redskins, and they’ll be facing a Giants offense bordering on ‘elite’ status this year. The Giants, too, are playing very fast; ranked #5 in offensive pace. Eli Manning set career highs in both completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first year running Bob McAdoo’s offense. Now in Year 2 of that offense, Manning is on pace to set career highs in both categories once again. We’ve seen a number of sluggish Monday Night affairs that have stayed under the total, with only one Over cash in six previous MNF matchups this year (KC- Green Bay). And the betting markets seem to be nervous about the Giants injuries at wide receiver (looks as if Beckham is going to play for New York). Those two factors have deflated this total into a range that makes the Over worthy of a wager. Bet it now – I don’t expect this total to hold below 50 for very long. Take the Over. |
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10-17-15 | Ole Miss v. Memphis OVER 68 | 24-37 | Loss | -112 | 69 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Ole Miss – Memphis OVER (#205-206) 1) The pace here is going to be frenetic, with both Ole Miss and Memphis looking to push the pace. The Rebels have already played slow paced Alabama – a game that produced 165 snaps – and 169 snaps versus Vanderbilt. Memphis (and their opponents) have been aboe 160 combined snaps three times in their last four. 2) Ole Miss is a threat to score 50+ here, just like they did last week, facing a Memphis defense that is short on talent, size and speed. The only two good offenses the Tigers have faced – Bowling Green and Cinci – both hung 40+ against them. 3) Memphis has enough playmakers to put points on the board themselves. In two previous road games, the Ole Miss defense has given up 37 & 38 points. After managing only a field goal against the Rebels in Oxford last year, off their bye week, I’m expecting a much improved showing from the Tigers offense this time around. |
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10-10-15 | Washington State v. Oregon OVER 71 | 45-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Oregon- Washington State OVER (#359-360) Both teams offensive strengths play well against their opponents defensive weaknesses, and neither defense is any good. Both teams are well accustomed to high scoring PAC-12 shootouts, very comfortable with no-huddle, uptempo schemes. The recent series history is filled with high scoring shootouts. Oregon has hung at least 38 against Wassou in each of the last eight meetings since 2007, while Wassou has hung 31 and 38 on the Ducks defense over the last two years. I’m not expecting anything dramatically different this year, in a game that has true ‘high flying shootout’ potential – the loser here could easily score five TD’s or more. Oregon’s depth chart shows two freshmen (Glen Ihenacho and Ugo Amadi) and two sophomores (Arrion Springs and Ty Griffin) on the two-deep at cornerback this week. Those four DB’s have never faced Mike Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ offense, and Ducks head coach Mike Helfrich is nervous: “So much of it is just fundamentals. A coverage fitting a route or a formation, however it goes. Communicating with confidence and then aligning. That sounds so simple but when things are going quickly or different than they’ve shown on film, that is when you have to go back to fundamentals and play. That’s always a step or two slower if it is a new guy or a younger guy.” It’s surely worth noting that Washington State ran a grand total of two running plays out of 35 second half plays against Cal last week; an extreme pass heavy approach that is almost always good news for Over bettors. Look for Wassou’s WR playmakers Gabe Marks and Keith Harrington to benefit from Luke Falk’s aggressive downfield passing game. Washington State’s offensive line played poorly at Cal last week, and Coach Leach was not amused. He called out his OL this week, expecting a better showing on Saturday: “If you’re going to be an offensive lineman and you’re the toughest unit on the team, you have to be the toughest. Go out and whip the guy across from you because you’re tougher than he is. If that’s not your mentality, maybe you ought to play something else, like Scrabble, maybe.” Guard Gunner Eklund: “We didn’t play good enough (vs. Cal). If we’d played better, things would have turned out differently. We have to have a better mentality to attack each game. … We just have to come out with the mentality that no one is getting past us five.” Oregon found their missing offensive mojo in the second half last week against Colorado – they didn’t punt or turn the ball over after halftime while running for 361 yards at a 6.0 yards per carry clip for the game. Even with limited QB play in the post-Mariota era, the Ducks still have a tremendous offensive line and a stable of big play running backs. Look for Royce Freeman and Taj Griffin to have banner afternoons against a weak defensive front seven for the Cougars, and expect both teams to be trading touchdowns from start to finish. Take the Over. |
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09-27-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. St Louis Rams OVER 48 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Pittsburgh – St Louis OVER (#461-462) We know who and what the Steelers are pretty clearly. Pittsburgh is an explosive offensive team with a two time Super Bowl winner at QB and a bevy of big play weapons surrounding him. Even after the loss of starting center Maurkice Pouncey in the preseason, Big Ben has only been sacked twice in two games while averaging a whopping 11.1 yards per pass attempt; by far the best in the league. The return of LeVeon Bell following his two game suspension gives Pittsburgh one more weapon for St Louis to worry about. And the Steelers propensity to play fast – this team runs a ton of uptempo, no huddle sets – leaves the Steelers with a legitimate chance to be the highest scoring offense in the NFL this year. Pittsburgh’s gonna get theirs….. Todd Haley, talking about his stud QB’s ability to audible at the line of scrimmage: “When your quarterback is playing at such a high level, physically and mentally, that's an edge that's hard to duplicate, because the quarterback can get you in what the best possible play is. He was doing it. He was making great decisions and then the necessary throws, and guys were making plays around him." The Rams are 6-2 to the Over in their last eight at home, an Under-the-Radar trend that hasn’t developed any betting market momentum. The Rams supposedly dominant Front Seven on defense hasn’t materialized, much like last year when it took until midway through the season before the D started stepping up. Jeff Fisher’s defense ranks #25 in the NFL right now while allowing more than 27 points per game; unable to consistently stop the run or the pass. And the weak link of that defense is clearly the secondary, bad news against Pittsburgh’s skill position talent. But the Steelers have a multitude of defensive questions of their own; a very young stop unit that was gashed repeatedly in their lone previous road test. Underachieving LB Ryan Shazier had a breakout game last week , but he’s been unable to practice all week, no sure thing to suit up on Sunday. Nose tackle Daniel McCullers is out and CB Cortex Allen has a bad knee. Nick Foles threw for 297 yards against the Seahawks in his lone previous start on this field this year and the Rams receiving corps is more than capable of creating big play, quick strike TD’s. Expect a shootout, start to finish! Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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09-26-15 | TCU v. Texas Tech OVER 80.5 | 55-52 | Win | 100 | 75 h 39 m | Show | |
Take TCU – Texas Tech OVER (#379-380) Here’s an excerpt from my write-up last week; an easy winner with TCU Over the total, a bet that cashed midway through the third quarter. “TCU is a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. The Horned Frogs aren’t just an elite level offensive team – they also play at an extremely fast pace. Gary Patterson’s squad ran 82 plays last week despite leading by margin throughout and slowing down the game after halftime. Their last TD drive lasted 16 plays and took 10 minutes off the clock, deflating both their yards-per-play numbers and their pace rating. “On the heels of a sluggish offensive showing in their opener against Minnesota (only 23 points on 5.2 yards per play), we’re getting a real bargain on this total. The Horned Frogs are capable of scoring quick strike, big play TD’s every time they have possession of the football. They had seven TD drives that lasted two minutes or less last week alone. “TCU’s defense was a major question mark coming into the season, the only team in the country without a single start returning at linebacker. Then they lost arguably their best new starter for the season when Sammy Douglas got hurt. Fellow starting LB Mike Freeze took a personal leave of absence following Week 1. They just lost senior safety Kenny Iloka with a season ending injury last week. Pass rushing end Mike Tuana is hurt as well. Last year’s sack leader, James McFarland, just had surgery, out indefinitely. Coach Patterson: “Every week has to be a learning experience. We've can't just be getting ready for the team we're playing, but we also have to keep preparing for the season." Expect touchdowns in bunches!” Things are even worse for TCU defensively this week! Senior defensive end Mike Tuaua was just suspended for an off campus robbery. They’re now down SEVEN STARTERS on defense since the beginning of summer camp. Coach Patterson: “You’re working with younger guys, whether they go in the ballgame or not, preparing guys who maybe didn’t think they would be a guy that might have to play.” TCU embarrassed Texas Tech last year in an 82-23 absolute annihilation in Red Raiders starting QB Patrick Mahomes first career start. But Coach Patterson said it best: “(Last year) he basically had an option package set up for him, and now he’s throwing the ball all over the field and is just doing a great job. So there’s not a comparison.” Mahomes ranks #6 in the country in passing yards and the Red raiders have scored 35+ in all three previous games. Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury isn’t resting on his laurels following the Red Raiders impressive win at Arkansas last week, calling TCU a “whole other beast” compared to the Razorbacks. When it comes to pace of play and explosive skill position talent, that’s certainly true – the Horned Frogs are averaging just shy of 50 points per game this year. Kingsbury is no fool – Texas Tech’s best chance for success here is to push the pace, and wear down the paper-thin TCU defensive depth. It’s also worth noting that Texas Tech will be playing without a pair of impact safeties this week. And with the betting markets continued reluctance to bet games Over 80, there’s legitimate value here! Look for the highest total on the board to result in one of the highest scoring games of the week. Take the Over. |
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09-20-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Chicago Bears OVER 45 | 48-23 | Win | 100 | 95 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Chicago – Arizona OVER (#271-272) Here’s what I wrote about Arizona last week prior to cashing a Week 1 winner with Arizona Over the total: “Arizona is a dead nuts Over team coming into the regular season. Arizona’s offense is much better than it was last year. A healthy Carson Palmer wowed observers throughout training camp. Bruce Arians is a coach who takes plenty of downfield shots, looking for big play, quick strike touchdowns from the vertical passing game. Arizona’s offensive line – a problematic unit both last year and in training camp – has enough quality depth that Arians isn’t concerned. But Arizona’s stop unit has their own problems; a group that looks weaker than last year on all three units (line, linebackers and secondary).” We got lucky to cash that Over, thanks to an aggressive playcall from Bruce Arians in a situation where just about every other coach in the NFL would have run the ball three times, punted and relied on their defense for the last stop. But Arians is FAR more aggressive than most head coaches playing with a fourth quarter lead – hence Arizona’s stellar ATS record in each of the last two years. And Arians knows that his defense isn’t as reliable as it was last year at this time…. That being said, we were unlucky not to have that Over already in the bag by the latter stages of the fourth quarter, in large part due to the Saints repeated failures in the red zone. New Orleans managed to punch in only one TD in four red zone tries. Chicago didn’t have a single ‘three and out’ in their opener against the Packers, and they punted only once. They gained more than 400 yards on only eight drives. Jay Cutler looked comfortable taking downfield shots; and the balance was there thanks to Matt Forte’s strong presence on the ground. Most importantly, Chicago’s much maligned offensive line held up fine, and they looked comfortable running Adam Gase’s new offense. But the Bears defense looks disastrous, forcing only two Packers punts in Week 1. They didn’t force a turnover. They didn’t get a sack. And they allowed more than 6.1 yards per play against a team missing their top deep threat, while making ‘cut multiple times in the offseason and nearly out of football’ WR James Jones look like a stud. Vic Fangio doesn’t exactly have the same level of talent to work with in Chicago as he enjoyed with the 49ers last year. Expect a shootout. Take the Over. |
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09-19-15 | SMU v. TCU OVER 66 | 37-56 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
Take SMU – TCU OVER (#187-188) TCU is a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. The Horned Frogs aren’t just an elite level offensive team – they also play at an extremely fast pace. Gary Patterson’s squad ran 82 plays last week despite leading by margin throughout and slowing down the game after halftime. Their last TD drive lasted 16 plays and took 10 minutes off the clock, deflating both their yards-per-play numbers and their pace rating. On the heels of a sluggish offensive showing in their opener against Minnesota (only 23 points on 5.2 yards per play), we’re getting a real bargain on this total. The Horned Frogs are capable of scoring quick strike, big play TD’s every time they have possession of the football. They had seven TD drives that lasted two minutes or less last week alone. When SMU faced Baylor two weeks ago, the Mustangs allowed four TD’s in the first quarter and eight for the game, allowing more than 700 yards of total offense on a whopping 10.5 yards per play. While first year head coach Chad Morris has made enormous strides with the SMU offense, this is a bottom tier stop unit that allowed more than 41 points per game last year, including a 56-0 loss to these same Horned Frogs. But SMU’s offense is as improved as any team in the country compared to last year. Coach Morris was the offensive coordinator for Clemson’s potent attack in recent seasons, and he’s got talent to work with in Dallas. QB Matt Davis was a Top 10 recruit coming out of high school, a transfer from Texas A&M with the ability to make plays with his feet as well as his arm; something the TCU defense hasn’t seen much of this year. 11 different receivers have already caught a pass from Davis, and Morris hasn’t been shy about taking big play shots down the field. TCU’s defense was a major question mark coming into the season, the only team in the country without a single start returning at linebacker. Then they lost arguably their best new starter for the season when Sammy Douglas got hurt. Fellow starting LB Mike Freeze took a personal leave of absence following Week 1. They just lost senior safety Kenny Iloka with a season ending injury last week. Pass rushing end Mike Tuana is hurt as well. Last year’s sack leader, James McFarland, just had surgery, out indefinitely. Coach Patterson: “Every week has to be a learning experience. We've can't just be getting ready for the team we're playing, but we also have to keep preparing for the season." Expect touchdowns in bunches! Take the Over. |
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09-18-15 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 14-0 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
Take Florida State - Boston College OVER (#105-106). This total has crashed from the opener of 53, giving us legitimate value to support the Over on Friday Night as the Eagles and Seminoles battle in Chestnut Hill. Florida State is coming off a sluggish effort against a stout USF defense after their 636 yard, 59 point performance in their opener. Everett Golson started 1-9 for six yards in the first half last week, but he went 13-17 for 157 yards and a TD after halftime, making the appropriate adjustments. And with RB Dalvin Cook coming off a 266 yard, three TD effort, we know that this offense is balanced. It’s worth noting that Jimbo Fisher was quoted this week saying that he’s looking to get off to a “quick start in the passing game.” His quote on Golson’s effort last week is certainly a positive one: "I think it's both his maturity, being able to relax at halftime, go back to his fundamentals, make good reads, and make quick passes. From the first half to second Everett looked like two different people." The Seminoles have hung 38+ on the Eagles in three of the last four meetings between these two teams, and I expect Florida State to approach or exceed that number on Friday Night. BC has some stellar looking defensive numbers through the first two weeks of the season’ at least part of the reason why this total crashed in early betting. BC allowed 91 yards to Maine, just 1.9 yard per play, then held Howard to a grand total of 11 yards last week. In the two games combined, the BC defense allowed just a single field goal. Florida State is not Maine or Howard, a pair of FCS schools. BC’s defensive numbers through two games are absolutely meaningless in my book, yet they’ve given us nearly a TD of extra value here! The Eagles allowed 30 at home on three different occasions last year – not an elite stop unit -- and their completely rebuilt secondary is highly vulnerable to any decent downfield passing game. Florida State, too, lost a bunch of defensive talent to graduation, including a pair of cornerbacks who left school early to get drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round, and a pair of second rounders from their defensive line. No surprise here if BC moves the ball effectively for extended stretches in this ballgame, helping it fly Over the total. Take the Over. |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 42 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
Take Kansas City – Denver UNDER (#101-102) Here’s an excerpt from my ‘free play’ write-up supporting the Broncos Under the total in their season opener against Baltimore last Sunday. “Few teams in the NFL have changed their expected gameplan as much as the Denver Broncos here in 2015. Last year, Denver spent the majority of the season in a quick strike, pass heavy offense. Denver ranked among the top five teams in the NFL in 2014, averaging 6.0 yards per play. Peyton Manning threw for more than 4700 yards, completing 39 touchdown passes and more than 66% of his throws. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense was riddled with key injuries, forcing them into ‘Offensive Shootout’ mode on a fairly regular basis. But Manning’s arm strength clearly declined down the stretch last year and new head coach Gary Kubiak and his staff have made it very clear – they’re going to be a run first offense this year with CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman getting the lion’s share of carries. Manning is not expected to stretch the field with his arm. We’re going to see a concerted effort to keep Manning’s throws tight and accurate, with a concentration on shorter routes and ‘run after catch’ opportunities. In other words, expect a significant and legitimate morph from Denver between last year and this year – they’re a dink and dunk offense in 2015, not a big play, quick strike offense. Denver is primed to win games and cover pointspreads with their defense, however, a truly elite unit heading into the regular season. New coordinator Wade Phillips has crafted more than one elite defense before. Their line is stout, their pass rushers are as good as any in the NFL and Denver’s secondary ranks among the best in the NFL. Expect yards and points to be tough to come by against this stop unit, right from the get-go.” Denver didn’t score an offensive touchdown in Week 1, and the first string offense didn’t score an offensive touchdown in the preseason either. But the Broncos defense didn’t allow an offensive touchdown last week, a truly elite unit. That’s bad news for the Chiefs, who started an offensive line in Week 1 without a single starter from last year returning to the same position. The Chiefs offense didn’t do much against Houston in Week 1, simply taking advantage of numerous Texans miscues. Alex Smith still wasn’t stretching the field with his throws, just like last year, and their only big plays came on busted coverages. Let’s not forget that KC scored just 16 and 17 points in their two meetings with Denver last year. But the Chiefs defense is no joke. Andy Reid showed us clearly last week that he’s comfortable trusting his stop unit to close out games. Thursday Night games are lower scoring than the league average, especially with a 39 year old QB with arm strength issues and a short recovery time from last week’s physical game against Baltimore. Thursday Night divisional games are the lowest scoring Thursday Night subset. Let’s take advantage of incorrect marketplace perceptions about BOTH of these offenses and bet this game Under the total. Take the Under. |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 54.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
Take Atlanta – Philly OVER (#489-490) The Philadelphia Eagles were, by far, the fastest paced team in the NFL last year. Philly ran a play on average every 21.9 seconds. The #2 team, New England, ran a play every 25.5 seconds. The slowest team in the NFL, Dallas, ran a play every 30.1 seconds. Basically, Philly lapped the field when it comes to pace of play. Yes, the markets already know this. But there are three market inefficiencies worth taking advantage of here. Even though this is the single highest total on the NFL board in Week 1, it’s still too low. First, the markets simply won’t bet NFL Week 1 games Over 55. Any database research shows that the Week 1 is the lowest scoring week of the season, until weather kicks in during December. The highest totals, historically, have been the worst Over bets in Week 1. So for all the recreational players who are betting the Over tonight, there’s a bevy of wiseguy $$ coming back the other way. This total is not going to skyrocket, even though the market ‘cap’ above the total 55 is both arbitrary and wrong in this particular instance. And, as we clearly saw AGAIN yesterday (9-4 to the Over), those historical database results don’t mean quite so much in the 2015 NFL. Nothing affects totals more than pace and red zone execution. In a game where both teams are methodically grinding out first downs on long drives, it’s not unusual to see teams get only ten or eleven possessions, instead of the NFL average (12). But the Eagles don’t play that grind-it-out style; dead last in time-of possession last year while playing at that frenetic pace. And, key point #2, Philly can only be expected to play even faster this year, with a healthy Sam Bradford behind center, Chip Kelly’s #1 choice to run his uptempo attack. Bradford has been running uptempo offenses since his days at Oklahoma. Very quietly, Cleveland was a bottom five team in terms of time of possession last year as well, and they were ranked #4 in overall pace despite their significant QB issues. The new Falcons offensive coordinator is Kyle Shanahan, the Browns OC from last year. This is key factor #3 – Atlanta’s going to be playing fast as well, something the markets haven’t fully recognized yet. We know how potent this offense can be, when healthy – the Falcons certainly don’t lack an elite level QB or big play weapons around him. Let’s not forget rookie RB Tevin Coleman in that discussion either; a huge speed/big play potential upgrade for Dan Quinn’s squad at running back. And the Eagles rebuilt defense, like Atlanta’s rebuilt defense, remains loaded with question marks. The highest total on the Week 1 board is worthy of an Over wager. Take the Over. |
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09-13-15 | NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 51 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show | |
Take the Dallas Cowboys – New York Giants OVER (#487-488) The Cowboys starting offensive line was banged up in August, unable to take the field as a unit for a single play in the preseason. The Giants, too, had offensive line issues in August, unable to keep their starters healthy and on the field. Those August offensive issues for both teams have kept this total from steaming upwards. And quite frankly, given the defensive concerns and the offensive capabilities for both of these squads, I have no hesitation expecting a Sunday Night Shootout at Jerry’s World in Dallas, especially with both OL’s looking in good shape heading into the game. Dallas could hang half a hundred here and I wouldn’t be shocked. The Giants front seven defensively looked awful in August. The lingering Jason Pierre Paul injury has left them devoid of a pass rush. In fact, their entire front seven is loaded with question marks. To make matters worse, the G-men battled injuries in bunches in their secondary in August, a team with a clear void at safety. That’s bad news against the Cowboys downfield passing game, primed to put up a handful of cheap, big play scores. The Giants spent the offseason revitalizing their offensive line, and that unit has the same starting five now as they did at the beginning of the preseason. The Cowboys defense has holes all over, especially with their top CB Orlando Scandrick (torn ACL) and their top free agent signee Greg Hardy (league mandated suspension). Eli Manning is now in the second year running Bog McAdoo’s offense, coming off a career high completion percentage last year. And even with Victor Cruz sidelined, the Odell Beckham Jr/Reuben Randle combo is more than capable of exploiting the Cowboys very suspect secondary. Both meetings between these two teams last year flew Over the total, producing 52 and 59 points. In fact, each of the last five meetings have flown Over the total and eight of the last ten; all in comparable ranges – none of those games was totaled lower than 44.5. Some divisional rivalries produce consistent low scoring defensive struggles. Not this one! Take the Over. |
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09-13-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 47 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona – New Orleans OVER (#477-478) Arizona is a dead nuts Over team coming into the regular season. New Orleans, too, has all the makings of a squad primed to cash Over bets this year. And with the season opening total priced below 50 (for now), I have no hesitation recommending an Over wager worthy of Big Ticket status. Arizona’s offense is much better than it was last year. A healthy Carson Palmer wowed observers throughout training camp. Bruce Arians is a coach who takes plenty of downfield shots, looking for big play, quick strike touchdowns from the vertical passing game. Arizona’s offensive line – a problematic unit both last year and in training camp – has enough quality depth that Arians isn’t concerned. Neither am I, considering the state of the Saints front seven, not exactly an elite passrushing unit without Junior Gallette moving forward. The Saints will be missing at least two starters from the secondary, with Jarius Byrd and Keenan Lewis both already ruled out. The other starting cornerback, Brandon Browner, missed extensive time this preseason with injuries, not certain to be anywhere near 100% on Sunday. For a defense that ranked near the bottom of the league in virtually every category last year, those cluster injuries in the secondary are clearly problematic. But Arizona’s stop unit has their own problems; a group that looks weaker than last year on all three units (line, linebackers and secondary). The Saints have consistently come out of the gate with stellar offensive showings, hanging 32+ points on opening day three times in the last four seasons. It’s surely worth noting that New Orleans lost all three of those games with 32+ plus; a team with a consistent history of early season shootouts. Expect another one on Sunday! Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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09-10-15 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky OVER 60.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Take Louisiana Tech – Western Kentucky OVER (#301-302) We’re getting a bargain price to play this game Over the total, in large part due to Western Kentucky’s offensive struggles in their opener last week at Vanderbilt. Yes, the Hilltoppers had a rough offensive game, punting on their first eight drives while finishing with only eleven first downs and 246 total yards. But a rough offensive season opener on the road against an SEC defense is not the same as a Week 2 matchup (with a full week of practice time after opening last Thursday) against a conference foe in a major revenge spot – Western Kentucky lost 59-10 in Ruston last year. Make no mistake about it – this Hilltoppers offense is just fine. They’ve got a sixth year senior in Brandon Doughty at quarterback, coming off a 4800 yard, 49 touchdown season in which he was named the Conference USA MVP, leading Western Kentucky to a 44 points per game average. Doughty’s quote: "(They) whooped us last year and embarrassed us." It’s surely worth noting that Doughty put up a 24-0 TD-INT ratio at home last year, leading Western Kentucky to at least 35 points in every home game. La Tech head coach Skip Holtz, talking about the Hilltoppers offensive prowess: “All their skill players are back. The majority of their offensive linemen are back, but the most important thing is their quarterback is back. He does an excellent job. ... He is on almost every watch list there is for a football player. He is certainly deserving of those credits because of the things he has accomplished and the type of player he is on the football field." It’s surely worth noting that La Tech suffered significant graduation losses on their front seven defensively. We can expect Louisiana Tech to be capable of trading touchdowns with Western Kentucky from start to finish. Even with most of their starters back, the Hilltoppers defense is certainly no elite unit, allowing 40 points per game in 2014. The Bulldogs have Florida transfer Jeff Driskel taking over at QB, the #1 overall QB recruit in the country coming out of high school. Driskel’s debut against FCS Southern was pretty darn good last week: 12-15 for 274 yards and four TD’s (he ran for a fifth) in a game where he and most of the starters were pulled before halftime. These are two top notches C-USA offenses led by top tier veteran QB’s. Expect touchdowns in bunches. Take the Over. |
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09-05-15 | Stanford v. Northwestern OVER 47.5 | 6-16 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Northwestern – Stanford OVER (#171-172) The markets tend to think of Stanford as an Under team. After all the Cardinal went 10-2 to the Under during the regular season last year, including a 4-1 mark to the Under in games totaled at 49 or less. That came on the heels of a 7-1 run to the Under to close out the 2013 regular season and a 7-2 run to the Under to open the 2012 campaign. This is a team with a very low baseline totals rating heading into 2015; one of the lowest baseline totals in college football. But there’s something very different about the Cardinal in 2014, something they haven’t enjoyed since Andrew Luck left town. Stanford has a returning senior starter with a potential NFL future at quarterback. Kevin Hogan didn’t live up to expectations for most of the season last year, but he came on like a freight train down the stretch, completing 45 of 59 pass attempts in three games away from home (at Cal, at UCLA and the bowl game against Maryland). Stanford scored 38, 31 and 45 in those three games; by far their highest three game output of the season. Now Hogan is back for his senior season, one of nine returning starters for the Stanford offense, including four returners on a loaded offensive line. That’s bad news for a Wildcats defense that repeatedly struggled against the better passing attacks they faced last year. And with Christian McCaffery capable of taking any carry to the house, the Wildcats defense will be tested by Stanford’s balance. The Cardinal defense has been the strength of the team throughout the entirety of the David Shaw era (since Luck went to the NFL). That does not appear to be the case in 2015. Stanford graduated their entire starting defensive line and a good portion of their secondary, losing a second rounder, two third rounders and a fifth rounder to the NFL draft. Shaw listed only five players on their ‘two-deep’ on the defensive line, indicating a severe lack of depth. They’re also breaking in a new kicker and a new punter – a special teams miscue (or two) could go a long way towards cashing this Over ticket. Northwestern’s redshirt frosh QB starter Clayton Thorson, one of the Top 20 QB recruits in the country coming off an impressive camp. They’ve also got big play gamebreakers at RB (Justin Jackson) and WR (Miles Shuler & Christian Jones), working behind a rock solid offensive line, capable of controlling the line of scrimmage against Stanford’s rebuilt front. It’s surely worth noting that like Stanford, Northwestern’s full season numbers from last year don’t tell the true story. A Wildcats team that was held below 30 points in each of their first nine games produced 33+ in each of their last three contests, games that flew Over the total by a combined 58.5 points. On a sunny day on the north side of Chicago, look for a relatively high scoring affair. Take the Over. |
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09-04-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals OVER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Take Washington – Atlanta OVER (#953-954) Two suspect starting pitchers. Two spotty bullpens; one of the verge of being a disaster area. And at least one red hot lineup. We’ve got a home plate umpire (Paul Emmel) who is 14-6 to the Over in games totaled at 7 or higher this year. On a warm, humid night in DC, we can expect runs in bunches. Washington’s lineup is mostly healthy – as healthy as they’ve been all year—and they’re in the midst of their best offensive stretch of the season. Last night’s 15 run outburst marked the ninth time in their last 12 games that the Nats produced at least five runs. No surprise then that Washington has only cashed two winning Under bets during that dozen game span. And there’s little reason to think that the Nats lineup will cool off tonight facing Julio Teheran. Teheran has faced Washington twice this season and both previous meetings were ugly for the Braves hurler: 20 hits and 13 runs allowed in just 10.2 innings of work in games that produced a combined 39 runs. Teheran got lit up by the Yankees in his last outing (eight earned runs in 4.1 innings of work), and he’s been dismal on the road all year: a 6.32 ERA compared to his 3.24 ERA at home. Behind Teheran, the Braves bullpen has been nothing short of awful in recent weeks, and that unit certainly isn’t fresh – their starters have lasted only 9.1 innings in the last three games combined. No surprise here if the Nationals approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Atlanta has run scoring potential in this matchup as well. Washington starter Tanner Roark has been unable to cement a place in the rotation for the better part of the last two seasons. He hasn’t started a game since June, and his minor league start last week lasted only 34 pitches. Braves slugger Freddie Freeman, in particular, has hit Roark hard. And the Nats bullpen behind him just blew a pair of games in St Louis during the week, and nearly blew the third! Expect fireworks. Take the Over. |
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08-29-15 | Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals OVER 7.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Miami OVER (#901-902) Even after a frustrating ‘push’ with the Nationals – Marlins Over last night (four home runs, seven runs by the top of the sixth inning), I’m still firmly convinced that Washington has all the makings of an Over team moving forward. And there’s little reason to expect anything other than a Slugfest in tonight’s rematch. While Denard Span is back on the DL, the rest of the Nationals lineup is as healthy as they’ve been since Spring Training. The Nats are fully focused on the task at hand, coming off last night’s loss, 6.5 games out of the NL East lead and a playoff spot. Shortstop Ian Desmond: “(August losses) don't feel good. But we've got a pretty good attitude in here. We believe. That's the first step." The Nats have averaged just shy of 5.5 runs per game through the first seven games of this homestand, cashing only one Under ticket in the process. All Star Bryce Harper: “This lineup we have right now, this is what we wanted all year long. We’re just going to get better as we play. And over this last month and a half, it’s going to be a lot of fun for us.” And there’s ample reason to think that the Nats could approach or exceed this total all by themselves today, facing Miami’s Tom Koehler. Koehler has a 6.68 ERA while losing each of his last six starts. He’s allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Nationals (one in July, one in May). Harper, in particular, has owned Koehler, with five career homers in only 21 career at bats against him. Koehler is coming off a 112 pitch outing, his highest pitch count of the season. Miami’s bullpen behind him isn’t fresh, using every key reliever last night. Washington’s Jordan Zimmerman has allowed five home runs (and 12 other hits) in just 11.2 innings over his last two starts, really struggling in the August heat. Zimmerman, like Koehler, is coming off his highest pitch count of the season, throwing 116 pitches in just 5.2 innings against the light hitting Brewers in his last start. He’s lost twice to the Marlins already this year; pulled after only 76 pitches while getting hit hard when he faced them last month. And Miami has been hitting much better on the highway: 32 runs scored in their last five on the road without cashing a single Under ticket during that span. Take the Over. |
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03-29-15 | Gonzaga v. Duke UNDER 144.5 | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Duke – Gonzaga Under (#721-722) Reliant Stadium is no place for a well-played basketball game. The venue is nightmarish for shooters, and the results – both this season and in season’s past – clearly prove that. The results don’t lie. The 2010 Regional Finals were played at this venue, with the three game series producing a pair of Unders and one Over. The Over only came about due to a wild final 40 seconds where 15 points were scored. The 2011 Final Four was played at this venue, a three game set that produced two Unders and a push. No team scored more than 70 points in any of the three games and none of the three produced more than 132 points in total. And then we had Friday’s night’s ugliness at Reliant Stadium, with two more Under cashes in two tries. Four STRONG three point shooting teams (three of whom ranked among the Top 25 in the country in three point shooting percentage) combined to miss 44 of 57 attempts from three point range. Duke’s stellar shooting backcourt duo of Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook gave up on trying to shoot the three-ball completely after badly missing their first three attempts from downtown. Gonzaga’s stellar perimeter shooting trio of Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell and Kyle Wiltjer hit just 1-15 from beyond the arc, despite getting more than their fair share of open looks. It’s a miserable venue for shooters – bad sight lines, bad depth perception, bad court lighting – and I expect that to continue on Sunday. But it’s not just the venue that’s in play here. Duke’s ball pressure defense is something that Gonzaga didn’t see in the WCC this year. And the Zags haven’t faced an elite level defensive team thusfar in the tourney; taking a major step up in class here. But the biggest difference between recent Gonzaga teams and this year’s version is their own ‘pack-the-paint’ defensive mentality, a strategy that has resulted in a rare Top 25 finish for the Zags in defensive efficiency as they’ve held foes under 40% shooting from the floor for the season. The expected pace here warrants a total in the mid-140’s. The expected level of offensive execution quite simply does not warrant a total priced in that range. Take the Under. |
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03-27-15 | Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 194.5 | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Miami Under (#861-862) Besides the obvious – Hawks All Star point guard Jeff Teague sitting out tonight, with Miami’s leading scorer and assist man Dwayne Wade also expected to miss the contest – there are two other key reasons to bet this game Under. First, Atlanta just changed up their defense. Atlanta has really been through the ringer, schedule wise, since the All Star Break and head coach Mike Budenholzer hadn’t been able to install anything new due to a lack of practice time. That changed this past week when the Hawks finally had a couple of days off in a row, and Budenholzer (man, this guy needs a nickname!) went to work on the team’s defensive schemes. The first result was extremely positive. After allowing 31 Orlando points in the first quarter on Wednesday, they stifled the Magic completely thereafter, giving up only 52 points the rest of the way. With the Hawks primary focus on the defensive end of the court right now, the algorhythm based totals power rating numbers that set these totals are likely to be in the wrong range for at least the next few contets. Secondly, the Heat have done one thing consistently in this road underdog role under Eric Spoelstra this year – they’ve slowed the pace to a crawl. Spoelstra is no rookie head coach, and he fully understands that his squad this year simply doesn’t have the personnel to run, especially when stepping up in class. That’s a big part of the reason why Miami is 19-8 to the Under as a road dog this season, an Under-the-Radar angle worth backing again here. It’s surely worth noting that the Heat are even more likely to slow it down on their fourth game in six nights AND that neither Miami nor their opponent has topped 93 points in each of the first three games of their current road trip; a trip that is 3-0 to the Under thusfar…. Take the Under. |
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03-21-15 | Ohio State v. Arizona UNDER 140 | Top | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona – Ohio State UNDER (#523-524) Both Arizona and Ohio State are elite defensive teams. The Wildcats rank among the Top 5 teams in the country in defensive efficiency, while Ohio State ranks #26 in the nation. Transition buckets are nearly impossible to get against either stop unit, leaving both squads in their best defensive sets consistently – playing slow paced, halfcourt basketball. Arizona flew 30 points over their closing total in their first round matchup against Texas Southern. The Wildcats shot better than 60% from the floor in that matchup and got all five starters into double figures. That ain’t gonna happen today against a Buckeye defense that has held ten of their last 13 opponents under 70 points in regulation; a team that has held opponents to 40% shooting for the year. But the real key here is Arizona’s defense, an elite stop unit coming off a poor effort on Thursday when they allowed 72 points on 47% shooting against the Tigers. Senior guard TJ McConnell: “It’s just disappointing, the way we played defense. It starts with me… You have to be intense for the whole 40 minutes. If you have a lead that big and if you lose your intensity that carries over into the next game and we’ve just got to be better.” Wildcats head coach Sean Miller concurred: “What we talked a lot about during the game and after the game is we came into this tournament as a great defensive team. We were not that today. Not that the roof’s caving in on us, but I think the point that we made is this tournament is unforgiving. When you don’t do the things that you do well, you’re not in the tournament very long.” Ohio State has one go-to scorer – DeAngelo Russell – not exactly a team loaded with strong offensive threats. The last time they faced an elite defense, they were held to 48 points at home on senior day against Wisconsi; a game that stayed ten points under the total. Arizona’s last game against an elite defensive team was a 63-57 slog at Utah, another game that stayed Under the total with room to spare. Expect today’s game to produce a similar result. Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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03-18-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Illinois State UNDER 139.5 | 56-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Illinois St – Wisconsin Green Bay UNDER (#635-636) The betting markets are reacting strongly to the 30 second shot clock in the lesser tournaments (including the NIT) this year, pushing up totals in game after game. And it’s understandable why. In 15 totaled NIT, CBI and CIT games yesterday, the Over went 13-2 against the opening number. But at the closing number, those same totals finished 8-7 to the Under! The initial market reaction towards the Over paid dividends, but betting those same Overs into the mature marketplace prior to tip-off didn’t produce a lick of profit. Wisconsin-Green Bay is most assuredly NOT a team that should be lined above 140 without a significant reason to do so. The Phoenix rank among the Top 25 teams in the country in defensive efficiency and rank in the Top 10 in slowest defensive pace. Illinois State is a Top 20 team nationally in defensive pace. In other words, it’s not easy to get good shots against either one of these defenses with a 35 second shot clock and I don’t expect it to be any easier with a 30 second clock tonight! And it’s surely worth noting that these two teams have allowed more than 70 points in a game a grand total of twice in their last 20 contests. Expect a slow paced, relatively low scoring affair that stays waaaay Under the total. Take the Under. |
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03-13-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 103-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Teddy's write-up will be posted here before 2 PM Pacific Time. |
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12-14-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 55 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Pittsburgh OVER (#309-310) Two explosive offenses face off against two bottom tier defenses on the fast indoor track of the Georgia Dome on Sunday. Both teams are in ‘must win’ mode here in mid-December – nobody is going to take their foot off the gas pedal with a lead in this one. Put it all together and we can expect the loser of this game to approach or exceed the four TD mark; exactly what Over bettors are looking for! Atlanta’s defense truly is bottom tier, especially when facing off against a balanced attack. That was on full display in Green Bay last Monday when they allowed 31 points while forcing zero punts before halftime. In fact, for the game, the Falcons forced only a single punt. This isn’t new or different. For the season, the Falcons have allowed a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt, ranked #31 in the NFL. The 17 TD’s they’ve allowed on the ground ranks dead last, as does their 6.2 yards per play allowed overall. It’s surely worth noting that the Falcons defensive numbers are this awful DESPITE the fact that they’ve faced a litany of bad quarterbacks and bad offensive teams, including Arizona, Cleveland, Carolina and Tampa Bay in the last five weeks alone. That’s very bad news against a Steelers offense that is clicking on all cylinders, hanging 27+ six times in their last seven games and 40+ three times in their last six. Big Ben is on fire, Antonio Brown has developed into an every down playmaking threat and Le’Veon Bell has been arguably the most versatile back in the league this year. It’s hard to picture a scenario in which the Falcons defense slows the Steelers down. But Pittsburgh’s defense is no great shakes either. They rank #29 in yards per pass allowed, giving up a full eight yards per attempt, and that includes matchups against the likes of Brian Hoyer, Mike Glennon, Blake Bortles, Geno Smith and Zack Mettenberger; all either benched or bottom tier starters right now. We saw Drew Brees pick this stop unit apart two weeks ago right on the heels of Andrew Luck’s 400 yard 34 point effort against them. Matt Ryan hasn’t lost his mojo, as clearly evidenced on Monday Night at Green Bay, and Julio Jones is on an absolute tear right now, even though he could be limited with a sore hip. Roddy White is back healthy and contributing, as is Harry Douglas, giving Ryan a reasonably healthy receiving corps here. Pittsburgh is unlikely to have key cover corner Ike Taylor in the lineup here, setting the stage for a real shootout in Atlanta. Take the Over. |
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12-05-14 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green OVER 61.5 | Top | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
Take Bowling Green – Northern Illinois OVER (#105-106) When these same two teams met in the MAC Championship Game last year, we saw a shootout with the two teams combining for 74 points. And there’s little reason to expect this year’s rematch to be significantly different. With the total deflated based on some misleading late season results, I have no hesitation pulling the trigger on an Over wager for Friday Night in the comfy indoor confines of Ford Field. Bowling Green plays fast, one of the more uptempo teams in the country. But the Falcons clinched their division title early and took their collective feet off the gas pedal. They also faced bad weather in a pair of November games, further deflating their scoring total. But make no mistake about it – BG is going to run a ton of no-huddle, uptempo offense here because it’s their only recipe for success against the revenge minded Huskies. Northern Illinois took some time to find their quarterback this year, but once sophomore Drew Hare took control of the job and delivered a 15-1 TD-INT ratio while leading the team in rushing, the Huskies offense blossomed. Northern Illinois has a trio of tough RB’s including bulldozer Cam Stingley and speedy scatback Akeem Daniels, posing opposing defenses some very difficult matchups. Facing a BG defense that allowed 33 points per game and nearly five yards per rush attempt, look for the Huskies to have success on the ground throughout the course of this matchup. And in a game of this magnitude, I don’t expect either team to slough off with a lead – we’ll be seeing touchdowns start to finish in this one! Take the Over. |
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