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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-29-17 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 2-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Cincinnati – Toronto OVER (#977-978) I don’t trust Reds starter Lisalverto Bonilla to get many outs today. Bonilla certainly isn’t manager Bryan Price’s first choice to start a game, but with starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Homer Bailey and Amir Garrett all on the DL, it’s not like the Reds have a ton of good options for tonight’s game. Bonilla has bounced around numerous organizations since 2009. He got a couple of starts with the Rangers in 2014, and he’s had three here in Toronto this year; not the type of prospect who wows the scouts and gets chance after chance at the big league level. Bonilla’s biggest problems have been the gopher ball and control issues, a bad combination facing the suddenly resurgent Blue Jays lineup. Behind Bonilla, the Reds bullpen is wearing down from overuse, just like last year – they’ve thrown more innings than any bullpen in baseball. Only one of Cinci’s last five starters has gotten a single out past the fifth inning. Even though that pen has been decent of late, it’s by no means a trustworthy unit. Toronto’s Marcus Stroman has been very hittable of late, perhaps showing some aftereffects from his extensive participation in the World Baseball Classic before spring training. He hasn’t gotten into the seventh inning in any of his last five starts, and the better hitting teams are finding his pitches quite hittable. Behind Stroman, the Jays pen, too, has been overworked, ranked #1 in the AL in innings pitched. Both lineups are a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Toronto just got big bats Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back off stints on the DL; primed for an offensive outburst today. Cincinnati’s hot hitting lineup has scored five runs or more nine times in their last dozen games while going 8-4 to the Over during that span. This game has a real ‘runs in bunches’ feel to it, primed to fly Over the total with room to spare. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Arizona OVER (#959-960) Forget the pitching matchup for a moment – let’s talk about hitting! The Dbacks rank #3 in MLB in runs scored this season, and the Brewers rank #5 – we’re talking about two very potent offenses. From an OPS standpoint, they are #3 and #4 – both lineups feature plenty of power. And both lineups are in excellent current form. Arizona just pounded out 18 runs in a three game set vs. the White Sox, and they’ve scored five or more in eight of their last nine contests. The Brewers have scored 36 runs in their last five home games, and they’ve produced five runs or more in ten of their last 15 overall. Milwaukee, in particular, has been an Over machine all year, 29-16 to the Over including a 10-4-1 mark to the Over in those last fifteen contests. Arizona is coming off a true ‘bullpen’ game, leaving their pen depleted behind Robbie Ray tonight. The Brewers bash lefties like Ray, ranked #2 in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws. And it’s surely worth noting that while Ray pitched a gem last time out, that was against the light hitting Padres at Petco; basically the antithesis of facing Milwaukee in Milwaukee. It’s also worth noting that was Ray’s highest pitch count of the season. Brewers starter Zack Davies is a threat to get lit up every time he pitches. Davies ERA and his FIP are both more than a full run higher than league average, a big part of the reason why he’s cashed only one Under bet in nine previous starts this season. He’s been MUCH worse pitching at hitter friendly Miller Park (6.93 ERA, .343 batting average against). The Brewers bullpen behind him has 12 losses already, tied for second most in the majors. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 218 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Boston UNDER (#505-506) The NBA Playoffs have been a boon for Over bettors. The Spurs closed out the playoffs on a 12-3 run to the Over. Golden State is on a 9-3 Over run, Cleveland on a 8-3 Over Run and Boston on a 7-3 Over Run. Each of the first three games of this series has landed right around the total, with two Overs cashing by a combined 4.5 points and the lone Under cashing by 2.5. Given these type of results – Overs cashing in bunches, all three games of this series finishing right around the total – there’s no surprise that the betting markets have NOT made any significant adjustments for Game 4 tonight. And yet tonight’s game has a VERY different feel about it than the first three. The Celtics are not the same team without Isaiah Thomas on the floor. Their offense is slower and less efficient – no surprise there, minus an elite offensive point guard. And their defense is noticeably better minus the single worst defensive point guard in the NBA this season, based on the advanced metric stats. That’s a good part of the reason how the Celtics rallied back from a 21 point second half deficit to win Game 3 -- vastly improved defense, keeping the Cavs from driving into the paint. Boston’s improved defense and weaker offense were NOT truly on full display in Game 3 because BOTH teams were raining three’s throughout; combining for a whopping 34 made three pointers. Had they only made 33 of those, Game 3 would have stayed Under the total. Games 1 and 2 had 23 and 27 three point makes; right in the range of what we should expect again tonight. Without BOTH teams draining three pointers in bunches, this game has all the makings of an Under. No surprise here if we see what we saw from Boston in their Game 6 battle at Washington, a game that stayed 35 points Under…. Take the Under. |
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05-22-17 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay – Los Angeles Angels OVER (#911-912) We’ve seen a big run of Overs in MLB in the past week, in large part due to circumstances like we find in Tampa Bay this evening – hot lineups facing off against overworked bullpens. And there’s ample reason to believe that both of these two teams will continue trending Over the total this evening. LA’s lineup has come back to life over the course of the last week. Sunday’s 12 run outburst against the Mets was the fifth time in six games that this squad has produced five runs or more. Angels starter Jake Odorizzi has a truly miserable track record against this lineup; on the wrong end of a 13-5 loss the last time LA came to town. Current Angels are hitting .359 against him with a .946 OPS. Behind Odorizzi, the Rays bullpen was used extensively in their series against the Yankees over the weekend; not a fresh unit tonight. Tampa’s lineup, too, has been really heating up of late, scoring 47 runs in their last seven games; producing five runs or more six times during that span. The Rays have been an Under-the-Radar Over machine of late, 8-1 to the Over in their last nine contests. LA starter JC Ramierz has shown some promise as an emerging young starter, but his track record against Tampa is downright ugly, with a .471 batting average against an a 1.353 OPS. Even in a short sample size, those numbers are problematic. And LA’s bullpen behind Ramirez is a big part of the reason that they’ve been trending Over of late too (4-1 to the Over L5, all four Overs producing 12 combined runs or more). Expect crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the Over. |
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05-21-17 | Marlins v. Dodgers OVER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Miami – LA Dodgers OVER (#953-954) The Dodgers have scored at least six runs in each of their last four games, while pounding out 20 runs in the first three games of this homestand. No surprise, then, that this hot hitting lineup is in the midst of a run of Overs; 6-1 to the Over in their last seven contests.. Don’t expect that offensive barrage to end today against Vance Worley and the overworked Marlins bullpen behind him. Worley is the ultimate ‘tired retread’ for a last place team. The Phillies, Twins, Pirates, Orioles and Nationals have all given up on him over the last five years. He wasn’t good in spring training, nor was he dominant at AAA New Orleans, but Don Mattingly doesn’t have many options with multiple starters on the DL. I’m not expecting his 2017 MLB debut to be particularly successful. Behind Worley, Miami’s weak bullpen is on life support – only one of their last six starters has finished the sixth inning. It’s surely worth noting that the bullpen has combined for a dismal ratio of nine losses to four saves. Miami, too, has been trending Over, despite the fact that their lineup hasn’t been producing on a consistent basis. In fact, Miami has cashed four Over bets in their last six games in which the offense has produced two runs or less, a testament to how weak that pitching staff has been. The Marlins lineup finally got going last night, flying Over the total by themselves. And there’s ample reason to think they’ll be able to hit Brandon McCarthy today. My clients and I cashed an underdog winner betting against McCarthy at San Francisco in his last start – his first back from the DL. He really labored in that game, giving up six runs while throwing a season high 105 pitches. LA used their bullpen extensively last night, setting the stage for some late inning shenanigans on both sides, should we need them. Last, but not least, it’s rarely difficult to make a case for the Over when Paul Nauert is calling balls and strikes. Nauert went 19-11 to the Over and his 62.5% strike percentage in seven previous games behind home plate this season ranks on the low side. Take the Over. |
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05-19-17 | Phillies v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Pittsburgh OVER (#953-954) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Jeremy Hellickson on the run line in Chicago earlier this month. Let me start with a brief excerpt from that write-up: “That’s bad news for Jeremy Hellickson, who has been living on borrowed time. Hellickson was more lucky than good in his last outing against Miami, and his fly ball tendencies work against him here. “ ‘Living on borrowed time’ was an appropriate metaphor for Hellickson’s situation at the time. He went 4-0 with a 1.80 in April, but just about every advanced metric stat in existence said to expect a regression. That’s exactly what’s happened. Hellickson has allowed 12 earned runs – including seven dingers – over his last three starts while failing to record a single out in the sixth inning in any of those games. Behind Hellickson, the Phillies bullpen is spent following an ugly week in Texas; a bullpen that has been a big part of the reason why Philadelphia is 7-2 to the Over in their last nine ballgames. That’s bad news against the suddenly resurgent Pirates lineup, averaging just shy of six runs per game over their last six contests, including a ten run outburst last night. But with Trevor Williams on the hill for Pittsburgh, six runs might not be enough for the win tonight! Williams didn’t win a starting job in spring training; and none of his three spot starts over the past two seasons has been pretty; not a guy who has shown any ability to get through a batting order multiple times. The Pirates bullpen, too, is shaky here, both in terms of current rest and current form. On a warm night in Pittsburgh with the wind blowing out to right field, expect both squads to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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05-17-17 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 11.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati - Chicago Cubs OVER (#957-958) The Cubs aren’t involved in many pitcher’s duels these days. Chicago is 20-7 to the Over in their last 27 games, including a 10-1 mark to the Over in their last eleven at Wrigley Field. Only the Brewers, Mets and Rays have cashed more Over tickets than the Cubs here in 2017. Overs begat more Overs in MLB. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Overworked pitching staffs and struggling bullpens stay that way too, until proven otherwise. Make no mistake about it – Chicago’s run of Overs is a streak worth riding! When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, the ball carries like it does in few other ballparks in MLB. And the wind is blowing out tonight, a 20 mph wind blowing out to left field, with gametime temperatures expected near 80 degrees. We saw seven home runs in similar conditions last night and tonight’s game features similar potential. Kyle Hendricks hasn’t won a start at Wrigley yet this season, with an ERA more than a full run higher pitching at home. His FIP is a full run higher than it was last year. Joe Maddon used most of his best bullpen arms behind Hendricks last night. Scott Feldman’s quote about pitching at Wrigley stands out here: “You can't control the wind, unfortunately, or else I'd have it blow in every time. You can't really re-invent yourself just because the wind's blowing a certain way. Just try to make pitches and hope they hit it on the ground and right at somebody." Cinci’s bullpen behind Feldman got lit up last night, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them……Take the OVER. |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Golden State – San Antonio UNDER (#719-720) There is one factor that is putting me squarely on the Under for this ballgame, a factor that trumps any other when it comes to the pace of this ballgame. That factor, of course, is Gregg Popovich; the Bill Belichick of the NBA; a coach who creates gameplans that consistently flummox their opponents. So, pretend you’re Gregg Popovich for a moment. You’ve already lost your starting point guard for the rest of the playoffs, with Tony Parker’s injury. And then you lose your best player on BOTH ends of the court, with Kawhi Leonard expected to miss Game 2 tonight. So what do you do against an elite defense like Golden State’s; a defense that held San Antonio to 33 points over the game’s final 21 minutes after Kawhi Leonard got hurt? If I’m Popovich, I’m looking to SLOW the pace as much as possible, shortening the game and eliminating the ridiculous 25 fast break points that San Antonio allowed after halftime of Game 1. The Spurs are as deep as any team in the league – the back end of their bench can contribute on both ends of the floor, unlike so many other teams. Of course, facing the Warriors, it’s not about contributions from the back end of the rotation – it’s about defense and pace. I’m expecting the Spurs to slow this game to a crawl as best they can. I’m not expecting a late game flurry, with 19 points scored in the final 2:25 of Game 1, because tonight’s game has plenty of ‘dribble out’ potential for the final possessions. Twice in three regular season meetings, San Antonio held Golden State to 100 points or less. No surprise here if they do it again tonight in a game that has all the makings of a relatively low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston – Washington UNDER (#715-716) Let me start with an excerpt from my Under write-up for Game 6, an easy ‘right side’ winner that cashed by more than 30 points: “Two things happened that were ‘different’ in Game 5 between the Wizards and Celtics. First, the Celtics finally figured out their low post defense, repeatedly stuffing John Wall at the rim. Boston blocked a series high eight shots, showing significant improvement in the paint following a series of Brad Stevens adjustments. “Second, the Celtics ran the Wizards out of the gym, after Washington had gotten the job done with their transition in each of their previous two contests; games where the Celtics were held to 89 and 102 points, in sharp contrast to the 123 they hung in Game 5. Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not amused by his team’s defensive showing, as evidenced by this ‘actionable’ quote. “Brooks: “When you give a very good team transition points and breakaway points with nobody guarding you ... it's going to be hard to keep up with them. We had no answers for those guys. We've done a pretty good job on their best player, but not a good enough job on the other guys." So what happened in Game 6? Yes, the shooting percentages were down in a tight defensive struggle. But more than that, the transition buckets simply weren’t there, the pace wasn’t there, and the bevy of ‘free and easy’ buckets weren’t there. I do NOT expect any of that to chance for Game 7, yet the total remains in ‘inflated’ territory based on the full series results thusfar. This is not unusual in the slightest. As a series progresses, teams offer precious few surprises and adjustments to what they’ve already done. That’s at least part of the reason why series tend to get lower scoring, bogging down once we get to Games 6 and 7. In a Game 7 ‘win or go home’ situation where BOTH teams can be expected to get after it defensively, particularly in transition, expect the second consecutive game to stay Under the total by margin; a play worthy of Big Ticket status with this total still sitting above 210 as I write this. Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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05-14-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – Chicago Cubs OVER (#907-908) The Cubs aren’t involved in many pitcher’s duels these days. Chicago is 19-6 to the Over in their last 25 games. Only the Brewers have cashed more Over tickets than the Cubs here in 2017. The Cardinals have been a consistent Over team as well – they’ve cashed only 12 Under bets since opening day. Only the Mets have cashed fewer Unders than St Louis here in 2017. The Cards are 14-3 to the Over in their last 17 ballgames. Overs begat more Overs in MLB. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Overworked pitching staffs and struggling bullpens stay that way too, until proven otherwise. So when two teams meet in the midst of a run of Overs, it’s not just a meaningless trend – it’s a streak worth riding! Jake Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball in 2015, right through the All Star Break last year. But his ERA went up a full run in his 13 post-break starts in 2016, and he notched only one quality start in four postseason tries. After two solid starts to open the season this year, Arrieta has been hit hard in each of his last four trips to the hill. He’s not the same pitcher right now, plain and simple, off back-2-back 220+ inning seasons. Adam Wainwright was a Top 3 finisher in the Cy Young voting on four different occasions between 2009 and 2014. That was then, this is now. Since losing most of the 2015 season due to an Achilles tear, Wainwright, too, hasn’t been the same guy. Wainwright closed out last season with only four quality starts in his final 13 tries. This year, he’s still looking for his first quality start after seven tries. And this quote following his last ugly start against the Marlins, a game where he didn’t throw hit cutter even once: “It was on timeout. When it's done disobeying, it will be out of timeout, just like my children." On a warm afternoon at Busch Stadium with the wind blowing out to left, the Cubs are a threat to go Over this total by themselves. It’s the same story with the Cardinals potent lineup; a lineup that has pounded out five runs or more seven times in their last eight ballgames. Even home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman has a legitimate Over bias with his relatively narrow strike zone! Take the OVER. |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 217 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Washington UNDER (#711-712) Two things happened that were ‘different’ in Game 5 between the Wizards and Celtics. First, the Celtics finally figured out their low post defense, repeatedly stuffing John Wall at the rim. Boston blocked a series high eight shots, showing significant improvement in the paint following a series of Brad Stevens adjustments. Second, the Celtics ran the Wizards out of the gym, after Washington had gotten the job done with their transition in each of their previous two contests; games where the Celtics were held to 89 and 102 points, in sharp contrast to the 123 they hung in Game 5. Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not amused by his team’s defensive showing, as evidenced by this ‘actionable’ quote. Brooks: “When you give a very good team transition points and breakaway points with nobody guarding you ... it's going to be hard to keep up with them. We had no answers for those guys. We've done a pretty good job on their best player, but not a good enough job on the other guys." Boston has played at a noticeably slower pace on the highway throughout this postseason, cashing four Unders in five road playoff games. That stands in sharp contrast to their 6-0 mark to the Over when playing at home, pushing the pace far more effectively in front of a friendly crowd. As a series progresses, teams offer precious few surprises and adjustments to what they’ve already done. That’s at least part of the reason why series tend to get lower scoring, bogging down once we get to Games 5, 6 and 7. On a night where BOTH teams can be expected to get after it defensively, particularly in transition, expect the lowest scoring game of the series! Take the Under |
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05-12-17 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 9 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Miami OVER (#901-902) The betting markets aren’t going to pay much attention to infield defense. In this particular game, the markets are missing something that legitimately matters! Based on the best defensive advanced metric stats available (PADE – Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency), Miami’s defense has been as good as any in baseball so far this season. But their team has been riddled with injuries over the past week. Infielders Miguel Rojas, Martin Prado and Aeiny Hechavarria have all gone on the DL, leaving Don Mattingly very short on infield options. That’s particularly bad news with Jose Urena on the hill, because Urena pitches to contact, not a strikeout guy. Urena has a terrible track record against Atlanta, with current Braves hitting .417 against him with a 1.157 OPS. Both of his appearances against the Braves last year were downright ugly, including a three inning start on this field back in September. With a very shaky defense behind Urena (and the suspect bullpen), no surprise here if the Braves break out of their hitting funk tonight. Michael Foltynewicz doesn’t have a particularly good track record against the Marlins lineup either, with Miami’s current players hitting .298 against him in their respective careers. Foltynewicz allowed 13 hits and eight runs in just over six innings of work in two starts against the Marlins last year. Hs current form is not pretty, blasted for eleven runs in ten innings of work against the Brewers and Cardinals in his last two trips to the hill. And the Braves bullpen behind him ranks #13 out of 15 NL teams in ERA, more than capable of a late game implosion should we need it! Take the Over. |
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05-10-17 | Orioles v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore – Washington OVER (#919-920) The Orioles bullpen is a mess. The Nationals bullpen is a mess. Even if BOTH starters shut down these two hot lineups, this game still has the potential to fly Over the total late, just like it did in last night’s thriller when a 1-1 game in the eighth inning ended up cashing Over 8.5 bets! I’m not convinced that either starter is coming through with a shutdown effort today. Stephen Strasburg is in the process of getting Dusty Baker’d, coming off the single highest pitch count game of his CAREER last Friday at Philly. Strasburg did have one start back in 2012 with an equal pitch count. It’s worth noting that despite all of those pitches, he failed to make it out of the sixth inning and had a season high in walks. I am not expecting vintage Strasburg tonight. Behind him, the Nats bullpen now ranks dead last in the NL with a 5.47 ERA after last night’s debacle, and the bullpen is anything BUT fresh here. The Orioles have used up their bullpen too following last night’s extra inning affair. They haven’t had a day off since April, and had a pair of starts in the last week where the bullpen was needed for 7+ innings. Closer Zack Britton is on the DL, leaving the situation more than a bit dicey for Buck Showalter in the latter stages, as we saw again last night. Orioles starter Wade Miley had TWO line drives hit off him in the first inning of his last start, resulting in a very early exit. He’s facing the highest scoring lineup in baseball today, and a team that has hit opposing lefties to the tune of a 1.013 OPS this season, by FAR the most potent lineup in MLB against southpaws. Current Nationals have hit .375 against Miley in a decent sample size of 96 at bats. On a warm spring night in DC, expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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05-09-17 | Tigers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Arizona OVER (#979-980) It’s not hard to make a case for betting the Over at Chase Field, especially when the roof is open, like it will be tonight when the Dbacks take on the Tigers. Arizona has only cashed five Under bets in their first 17 home games. They’ve scored four runs or more in 13 of those 17 home games, ranked #4 in the NL in runs scored, with all seven of their every day regulars enjoying an on base percentage of .315 or higher. All of this is bad news for Justin Verlander and the Tigers bullpen behind him. Verlander has seen just about every one of his advanced metrics stats decline here in 2017 – his strikeout rate is down, his swinging strike rate is down, his ground ball rate is down and his walk rate is up! The fly ball rate is of particular concern here, facing a potent lineup on a field where fly balls tend to carry with the roof open. In three road starts this season, Verlander has an 8.80 ERA, in sharp contrast to his 0.86 at home in Detroit! Behind Verlander, the Tigers bullpen ranks dead last in the majors in both ERA and FIP, coming off a series in Oakland in which closer Franky Rodriguez blew a pair of save chances. No surprise here if the D-backs approach or exceed this total all by themselves tonight. Robbie Ray’s advanced metric stats are rock solid, with one notable exception – his walk rate. The Tigers have a patient, potent lineup with 115 walks already this year. All of their key hitters were taking excellent at bats in their series at Oakland to open the trip. Since Miguel Cabrera returned to the lineup on May 2nd, the Tigers have scored five runs or more four times in five games; a lineup that’s starting to click. Arizona’s bullpen behind Ray isn’t loaded with aces either, leaving the door open for some late fireworks should we need them! Take the Over. |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Golden State – Utah OVER (#701-702) Golden State was held to a playoff low 102 points in Game 3. Their backcourt duo of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson finished with a combined 7-29 shooting effort, missing the shots they normally make. Golden State wasn’t hitting from three point range, hitting just 30% from beyond the arc. This team has averaged more than 114 points per game here in the postseason after leading the NBA with a 116 points per game average during the regular season. Even with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint effectively, the Jazz haven’t shown the ability to shut the Warriors offense down for extended stretches at any point during their regular season meetings or here in the playoffs. Most home teams that are down 3-0 in a series are primed to deliver a flat effort in Game 4. There’s not much motivation to get on a plane and fly back to their opponents home court for what is likely to be a rough and ugly Game 5. That does NOT appear to be the case for Utah. Head coach Quin Snyder: “We can’t get to Game #5 until you play Game #4. It's a chance to break through or the season's over. If we're able to do that, we'll turn our attention to the next game. Until we can do that, there's no sense looking forward. Just stay completely present." But it’s not just the coach who is talking the talk. Jazz All Star Gordon Hayward, following their Game 3 loss: “It's definitely encouraging. From where we were Game 1 to where we are tonight, you can see signs of improvement.” Utah’s best player in this series, Rudy Gobert: “I think we've been getting better every game. It's just those last seven minutes when we let them take over the game. I think we've gotten better and we've got to build around what we've done and keep the same attitude, and keep competing, and just believe in ourselves. I think we'll be fine.” How about Kevin Durant’s quote, from the other sideline: “They don't quit. That's what I love about this team. They have a great coach. They play physical. They don't give up. They've got a great crowd as well so they're going to try to feed off of that. The series is far from over.” From a totals perspective, those quotes tell me to expect Utah to fight tonight, not lay down. And if the Jazz fight, the Over here makes perfect sense. Yes, we’ve got a legitimate opportunity for late game scramble points should we need them. But we’ve also got a pair of teams primed to shoot much better in Game 4 than they did in Game 3 – not just Curry and Thompson either> Let’s not forget that other than Gobert hitting seven of his eight shot attempts from short range on Saturday Night, the entire Jazz team went 23-69 from the floor, hitting only 33%. Slightly better shooting from both teams can be expected here, sending this game up and Over the total. Take the OVER. |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 212.5 | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Houston – San Antonio OVER (#515-516) Here’s the key quote from Rockets win Trevor Ariza: “They played harder than we did in the second half. We can't allow that, especially at home. We've got to do a better job of matching their physicality and playing harder.” Here’s the key stat for San Antonio. The Spurs pushed the tempo after halftime of Game 3, hanging 60 points on Houston after the break after scoring only 43 first half points. They finished the second half with an effective FG percentage of 64%. I’m not convinced that Houston has the defensive answers right now, with only 48 hours between games for Mike D’Antoni to make his limited adjustments. Here’s the key quote from Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich; a coach who knows full well that in both Game 1 and Game 2, the winner hung more than 120 on the loser. “It's a challenge. They've got great shooters, good athletes, good scheme, and just as anyone else would do we're just trying to do our best to get out to those shooters. James does a great job making you think about what you have to do to him, how much you can help off other people. It's enough to drive you crazy but you just do your best. That's why people score." The Spurs are 7-2 to the Over here in the postseason, an under-the-radar angle that has not attracted significant betting attention. The Rockets have just been held under 100 points in two consecutive games, getting little from James Harden in one (3-17 shooting, only 13 points) and little from the supporting cast in the second (the rest of the team shot 18-60 30% from the floor). It’s surely worth noting that Houston hasn’t been held under 107 in any three game stretch all season. With the Rockets in desperation mode, expect a ‘push the pace’ offense for 48 minutes from the home favorite tonight, sending this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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05-05-17 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Boston OVER (#969-970) Very quietly, waaaaaaay Under the Radar, a Minnesota Twins team that cashed only two Over bets in their first 13 games of the season has morphed into an Over machine. The results don’t lie. Minnesota is 6-0 to the Over in their last six ballgames; every one of them producing ten combined runs or more. And this is an Over streak that really has the potential to be the gift that keeps on giving! The Twins starting pitching is mediocre on a good day, to put it bluntly. As a result, their bullpen is already getting worn down, throwing eleven innings during their just concluded three game set with the A’s. The Twins young lineup is talented and hot, pounding out 5 , 7, 9, 7, 6, 3 and 8 runs in their last seven contests. On a beautiful evening in Minnesota, with gametime temperatures expected in the 70’s, there’s ample reason to expect the Twins lineup to keep hitting. Boston is primed to hit this evening as well. The Red Sox lineup is World Series caliber, and just about all of their big bats are in good current form. That’s bad news for struggling Phil Hughes, who has been lit up three times in his last four starts. Hughes has allowed current Red Sox to hit .356 against him with a .952 OPS. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez is an advanced metrics correction waiting to happen; a hurler with a FIP more than a run and a half higher than his ERA. Current Twins are hitting .317 against him with an .868 OPS, and he failed to make it out of the fifth inning in his lone start at Target Field last year. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen is in no great shape following intense series with the Yankees, Cubs and Orioles back-2-back-2-back, without a single day off in between. Take the Over. |
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05-03-17 | Phillies v. Cubs OVER 6.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – Chicago Cubs OVER (#957-958) Yes, it’s going to be a cool evening in Chicago. But that’s not enough to keep me off this Over! The last five Phillies games have all produced eight runs or more – no pitcher’s duels with this team right now. In fact, the Phillies have only played one game in their last 14 tries with less than seven runs scored between the two teams. The Cubs, too, aren’t involved in many pitcher’s duels these days. Chicago is 12-2 to the Over in their last 14 games. They haven’t produced less than seven combined runs in their last seven games at Wrigley Field, a streak that dates all the way back to April 15th. The Cubs are a threat to go Over this total by themselves, just like they did last night. Chicago ranks #4 in the NL in runs scored despite the fact that no everyday starter is hitting better than .291, while big bats Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber are both off to ice cold starts. It’s surely worth noting that Schwarber got off the schnied with a three run bomb last night. And the Phillies lineup, too, is above average in the National League; a team that is consistently taking good swings on their current road trip. Jake Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball in 2015, right through the All Star Break last year. But his ERA went up a full run in his 13 post-break starts in 2016, and he notched only one quality start in four postseason tries. After two solid starts to open the season this year, Arrieta has been hit hard in each of his last three trips to the hill. He’s not the same pitcher right now, plain and simple, off back-2-back 220+ inning seasons. Behind him, the Cubs used several key bullpen arms last night, including closer Wade Davis. Phillies starter Jerad Eichoff isn’t getting many ground ball outs these days, bad news against the Cubs fearsome group of power bats Eickhoff has been hit hard in each of his last two road starts and his pitch counts have skyrocketed over his last two starts overall; unable to consistently find the strike zone. The Phillies bullpen got banged around last night, more than capable of a late game meltdown should we need it. Take the Over. |
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04-29-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Arizona – Colorado OVER (#959-960) The betting markets have gone nuts betting this game Under the total in early action on Saturday, driving a total that opened at 9.5 down as low as 8.5 in most locations as I do this write-up. Clearly, I disagree with the ‘sharp’ money in this one. The Chase Field roof was closed last night. It is expected to be open tonight. There’s a HUGE difference in how the ball carries between when the roof is open (it carries) and when the roof is closed (those home run balls tend to die at the warning track). In the six games that the roof has been open on this homestand, Arizona has scored 13, 11, 7, 9, 5 and 6 runs while going 5-1 to the Over. That is most assuredly an under-the-radar angle worth backing again here! The Rockies lineup is pounding out runs in bunches too. Yes, they were held to three runs (roof closed) last night, but prior to that, Colorado had pounded out 6, 12, 8, 8, 12, 4 and 5 runs in their previous seven contests, going 6-1 to the Over during that span. Zack Greinke still carries an ‘ace’ level pricetag, and he’s coming off back-2-back gems. Of course, both of those gems came against the light hitting Padres, and Greinke is 4-1 to the Over in his five starts this season. Greinke has struggled against this Colorado lineup, with key bats Charlie Blackmun, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, Mark Reynolds and Trevor Story all enjoyed sustained success against him. Behind Greinke, Arizona’s bullpen has been mediocre at best, more than capable of a late game implosion. The Rockies bullpen got destroyed earlier in the week in their series against the Giants, a suspect unit tonight. That’s bad news with Tyler Anderson on the hill. Anderson has shown extreme vulnerability to the big inning; allowing at least four runs and at least one homer in each of his five previous starts (4-1 to the Over). Current D-backs have hit .500 against him with a 1.283 OPS (short sample size, but still….). Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the OVER. |
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04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 190 | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Memphis – San Antonio UNDER (#505-506) Game 6 tonight is a potential closeout game between two defensive minded ballclubs; squads that create their identity on the defensive end of the court. We’ve seen plenty of sluggish, low scoring affairs between these two squads this season. When they played in February, these two squads combined for 163 total points. When they played in April, the game stayed Under by 11.5 points…even AFTER five extra minutes for overtime. And Game 2 of this series was another true grinder; another game that stayed Under the total by a double digit margin, with plenty of room to spare. It’s not like we haven’t seen plenty of low scoring games between the Spurs and the Grizzlies…. But we’ve seen three consecutive ‘shootouts’ in this series, with Games 3, 4 and 5 all flying Over the total. Game 5 earlier in the week was the highest scoring game of the bunch; a 116-103 shootout. Neither coach was particularly amused with their team defense. These two quotes are my primary rationale for this Under bet tonight: Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale, following Game 5: “We did not play defense at all. The Spurs did what the Spurs do. Every mistake, they capitalized on, and it ended in a 3 every time." Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, following Game 5: “I wouldn't say we stopped anybody. But you know we made shots, and that's what we didn't do last game." Both teams shot over 50% from the floor on Tuesday Night. There were more made shots in the game than rebounds, by a double digit margin! That’s not what we can expect in a potential series clincher tonight – expect a VERY different offensive flow in Game 6. Take the Under. |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 212.5 | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Atlanta OVER (#709-710) Each of the last three games in this series has been a legitimate sweat for total bettors. All three games were lined in this same range, right around 211.5 or 212. The three games finished with 210, 212 and 214 points scored – nary a ‘right side’ to be had with the totals. So what makes tonight’s game different? Two things! But first, let me state that the pace in this series has been frenetic throughout, something I don’t expect to change as the Wizards return home where they have pushed tempo effectively all year. What’s different? The Wizards ranked among the top quartile of NBA teams in terms of three point shooting percentage during the regular season. Here in the playoffs, they rank #15 of the 16 postseason teams in three point shooting percentage, hitting under 30% from downtown. On a team where John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morriss, Otto Porter Jr and Bojan Boddanovic all shot well from three point range during the regular season, there’s ample reason to expect some of those shots to fall here in Game 5. The second factor is how chippy this series has gotten, with a fair bit of bad blood between these two teams already. That sets the stage for a foul fest, especially in the aftermath of a very physical Game 4 after the two teams combined to hit only 37 and 36 free throws in the two games in Atlanta (compared to 57 made free throws in Game 2 and 48 in Game 1). Neither team has shut down their opponent in any game of this series yet, with the loser cracking 100 in three of the four games (and 98 in the fourth) while the winner has been at 109 or higher every time. We saw 212 points in Game 4, despite re the fact that neither squad hit 45% from the floor, the lack of free throw attempts and Washington’s poor three point shooting. All three of those stats (shooting percentage, three point shooting percentage and free throws) are primed for an uptick tonight! Take the Over. |
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04-25-17 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – Chicago Cubs OVER (#953-954) Not to get all Biblical on you, but the fact remains: MLB Overs begat more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Weak starting pitching leads to overworked bullpens which leads to more late game bullpen implosions. MLB totals are one of the rare areas in sports where yesterday’s results have a legitimate impact on today’s outcome. Which brings us to the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs opened the season sluggishly on offense, with the cold weather at Wrigley. They’re not cold any more, pounding out 56 runs over the last seven games while going 7-0 to the Over during that span. They had 17 hits and took nine walks last night, showing patience, poise and power! Chicago is a legit threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves again tonight! Gerritt Cole’s only start against the Cubs on this field last year wasn’t pretty: six runs allowed in 4.2 innings of work. Cole hasn’t been eating up innings; yet to record a single out in the 7th this season. And he’s been struggling with the gopher ball, including two more home runs allowed in his last start, bad news against those potent Cubs bats. Behind Cole, the Pirates bullpen is a mess after three of their last four starters failed to finish the fifth inning. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks basically came out of nowhere to throw 190 regular season innings with a 2.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP last year. He followed that up with five postseason starts as well, a career high (by far) in innings pitched. No surprise, then, that we’ve already seen a major decline. Hendricks fastball velocity is down, opposing hitters are smacking his sinker (a pitch they couldn’t hit last year), and Hendricks next quality start will be his first of the young campaign. With a 4.40 career ERA and a .300 batting average against at PNC Park, facing a Pirates lineup that saw him ten days ago, look for Hendricks’ mediocrity to continue here. The Cubs bullpen behind him has four blown saves and four losses already – the door should be open for a late rally here, should we need one. Take the Over. |
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04-22-17 | Wizards v. Hawks OVER 210 | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Washington OVER (#503-504) Here’s the key quote, from Hawks All Star forward Paul Millsap: “It’s simple. Our small ball is better than theirs. We think we play small ball better than anybody in the league. That is one of our better lineups. We can push the tempo. Get up and down the court.” And Millsap is right. The Hawks ARE at their best when pushing the pace with their ‘small-ball’ lineup. And Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer made a key rotation adjustment in Game 2, sitting Dwight Howard throughout the fourth quarter. Budenholzer: “It spreads the court more. It gets more ball-handlers, more guys who can get to the paint.” When your paint protecting, shot blocking big man is sitting on the sidelines, it’s generally good news for Over bettors. So, we’ve got a Wizards team that plays their best basketball when pushing the pace – John Wall is as quick as any point guard in the NBA right now. Washington has hung 112, 104, 114 and 109 on Atlanta in the four meetings played in 2017. We’ve got a Hawks team that is looking to do the exact same thing. We’re coming off a game in which both teams were ice cold from three point range, a combined 11-42. And yet the markets have adjusted this total downwards from Game 2’s number. Put it all together and the Over in Game 3 is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Over. |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196.5 | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Toronto – Milwaukee UNDER (#711-712) The Bucks and Raptors have played four times since the calendar turned to 2017. Three of the four games stayed Under the total, producing 195 points or less. The only Over cash – in Game 2 of this series – came, in large part, due to uncharacteristically good three point shooting. Milwaukee and Toronto combined to hit 25-52 from three point range in that contest, both squads exceeding their season long three point shooting percentage by double digit margins. That allowed an Over cash despite a relatively slow pace, just like Game 1. Toronto’s gameplan on the highway has been very consistent down the stretch. Dwane Casey wants to avoid turnovers like the plague, and play a half-court game on both ends of the floor. The Raptors were a Top 5 defensive team in the NBA after the All Star Break, and they are a team that doesn’t look to push the pace on offense, very comfortable in their halfcourt sets. No surprise, then, that the Raptors are 16-5 to the Under in their last 21 on the highway. The Raptors hung 106 on Milwaukee when these teams met on Tuesday, and Jason Kidd was not amused, stressing defense to his team in practice and in his media sessions. It’s surely worth noting that the Bucks are 16-4-1 to the Under in their last 21 tries after their opponent hung 100+ against them. And with Toronto finding an effective way to defense Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 2, don’t expect the Bucks offense to be particularly ‘free flowing’ tonight, helping this Game 3 stay Under the total with room to spare. Take the Under. |
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04-19-17 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 212 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Washington - Atlanta UNDER (#701-702) The betting markets have adjusted the Game 2 total higher after Game 1 was played at a torrid pace, leading to a combined 221 points and an Over cash for bettors. I’m not convinced that the adjustment upwards is the appropriate move here! Atlanta has spent the last two days in practice working on transition defense, looking to take the Wizards away from their fast break points. Guard Tim Hardaway Jr: “Transition. Same since Day 1. If we do not get back, it is going to be hard for us to win games.” Head coach Mike Budenholzer: “The thing that stood out the most was was we thought was most important coming into the series which is transition defense. We’ve got to to be better. It’s got to be the priority and the emphasis.” With the Hawks making a concerted effort to slow Game 2 down, it’s worth looking back at the regular season meetings. These two teams played opening night — way too long ago to worry about. But the other three regular season meetings all stayed Under the total by double digit margins, a clear indicator that the Hawks ‘slow it down’ strategy is not some pipe dream. Game 1 was a foul fest as well, with the two teams combining to hit 48 of 56 free throw attempts. Paul Millsap: “We were playing basketball, they were playing MMA’. Considering that the Hawks ranked #28 in free throw shooting this year and that the Wizards ranked #23 in free throws attempted, I’m not expecting another 48 points to be scored with the shot clock off tonight. Take the UNDER. |
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04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 209.5 | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Indiana OVER (#517-518) The Cavaliers defensive deficiencies have been a major story throughout the second half of the regular season, when Cleveland ranked #29 in points allowed per 100 possessions after the All Star Break, one tenth of one percent better than the #30 ranked, lottery bound LA Lakers. Indiana almost stole Game 1, in large part, due to those Cavs defensive weaknesses. Indiana had open looks throughout, consistently breaking down that suspect Cleveland defense. But the Cavs scored at a 119 points per 100 possessions rate, a rate that could have been a good notch or two higher had Cleveland not missed 13 of their 27 free throw attempts. Noe of this is likely to change in any significant way for Game 2. Cleveland has no switch they can flip to turn a bad defensive team in recent months into an elite, championship caliber defense in the 48 hours since Saturday’s opener. The Pacers really don’t have many answers for the Cavaliers offensive versatility – other than Myles Turner, the Indiana roster combined for two steals and no blocks in Game 1. And Cleveland wasn’t even hot from three point range on Saturday; a team with eight legitimate threats to get hot from downtown and light up the scoreboard in a hurry. Here’s the kicker, turning an initial ‘lean’ towards the Over into an actual wager for Game 2. Tyrone Lue, following the Game 1 victory: “We didn’t push the ball in the fourth quarter. We got stops and we just walked the ball up the floor and that put us in one-on-one situations. We took some bad shots. We didn’t keep playing with the same intensity, the same pace offensively once we did get stops.” Expect the Cavs to push the pace throughout tonight, sending Game 2 Over the total, just like Game 1. Take the Over. |
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04-11-17 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Take the LA Angels – Texas OVER (#969-970) I want my money ON the Angels lineup and AGAINST Tyler Skaggs. That sets us up for an Over wager in Anaheim this evening. The Angels lineup has come out of the gate clicking on all cylinders. They lead the AL in runs scored, batting average, on base percentage and OPS, a far cry from the lineup that ranked below the league average in every one of those categories last year. Rangers starter Cole Hamels: “I know Anaheim has tremendous hitters and they're a lot better lineup than they had last year. You look at the strength that their lineup possesses and how they're going to attack them. I need to establish getting quick outs.” Easier said than done! The Rangers bullpen behind Hamels has been a gas can thusfar, allowing 17 runs in just 21 innings of work. Tyler Skaggs was a top prospect when he was drafted, but Tommy John surgery cost him the 2015 campaign and he wasn’t the same pitcher upon his return last year; struggling with both walks and home runs allowed. Those same struggles were on display in his 2017 debut against Oakland – nine fly ball outs compared to only two on the ground, while allowing one home run and three walks. The Rangers are hitting out of the gate, pounding out 19 runs in their three game set over the A’s last weekend and producing five runs or more in four of their first six contests. LA’s bullpen behind Skaggs is more than a little bit dicey. Put it all together and we can expect plenty of crooked numbers on the scoreboard in Anaheim this evening. Take the Over. |
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04-06-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Chicago – St Louis OVER (#925-926) (Abbreviated write-up for this early start game) Simple concept here. We’ve got two right handed ‘fly ball’ pitchers facing off against two lineups loaded with potent left handed bats. We’ve got a strong, steady wind in the 20 mph range blowing out to right field. We’ve got a very reasonable total of 7.5 to work with on what looks like a fine afternoon for baseball. Last, but not least, home plate umpire Quinn Wolcott has a narrow strike zone. He’s been calling balls and strikes at the big league level since 2013, and he’s yet to have a season in which he’s called more Unders than Overs. Take the Over. |
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04-04-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers – San Diego OVER (#907-908) The Padres gave up 14 runs on opening day. With the worst starting staff in the majors, we can expect San Diego to endure more than their fair share of ugly defeats this year. San Diego’s bullpen is every bit as problematic as their starting staff; a unit that allowed five earned runs in 4.2 innings of work yesterday, with four different relievers getting used up. Today’s matchup isn’t any better for the Padres pitching staff with that same ‘gas can’ bullpen coming behind Clayton Richard this time around. Here’s what Padres manager Andy Green had to say about Richard facing the Dodgers lineup: “He’s a guy who relies heavily on the sinker and you know this is a team (LA) that honestly handles sinkers well, so he's got a challenge in front of him…..” It’s a challenge that I don’t expect Richard to pass. It’s going to be very expensive to bet against the Padres this year. Clayton Kershaw was -360 on opening day; Kenta Maeda is in the -225 range as I do my write-up. But there’s no extra juice to lay betting these Padres games Over the total; my preferred method of fading San Diego right now. Let’s not forget that for as bad as the Padres pitching staff is, this team has a good handful of solid bats. It’s important to note that the Padres didn’t quit in the latter stages yesterday, taking good at bats right through the ninth inning against the modestly suspect Dodgers bullpen. No surprise here if we get to eight runs rather early in this one, and even if we don’t, the stage is set for some late inning shenanigans to help push this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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04-03-17 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8 | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Seattle OVER (#963-964) King Felix faced the Astros twice last year. Neither game was pretty – he allowed 19 hits and 14 runs in just ten combined innings of work. Hernandez made one start against the Astros in 2015. It was the worst start of his career: eight runs allowed in 1/3 of an inning. For a guy who has seen his velocity drop significantly over the last few years, this former ace has a big name, but he’s an easy fade against the potent Astros lineup that is more than capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves. Dallas Keuchel won the AL Cy Young Award following the 2015 season. Don’t expect him to win another one anytime soon, a guy who overachieved dramatically to earn that award! Keuchel regressed mightily last year, finishing with a 0.5 WAR following a 7.2 WAR in 2015. Current Mariners have hit him well, with a .293 average and seven dingers in 147 at bats against him. These are two downright scary lineups right now, after an offseason filled with activity for both squads. And, as we saw very clearly on Sunday, MLB bullpens aren’t primed to come in on opening day and shut quality opposing lineups down. We’ve got legit ‘Slugfest’ potential early here, and even if that doesn’t come through, we’ve got a solid shot to get some late inning shenanigans in this one, sending it Over the posted total. Take the Over. |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina OVER 159 | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 25 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina – Kentucky OVER (#723-724) Here’s the quote from Wildcats head coach John Calipari, prior to the UCLA game: “We’ve got really fast players, and so you try to play to your strengths. But a lot of people have slowed us down. They’ve not let us play fast. Early in the year, we were playing way faster than we are now. Some of that is because of how people are playing us. I’m not sure UCLA will try to slow you down. Let’s go. Let’s play to 120. I don’t think either one of us are going to change how we play. It’s too late in the season.” The game against the Bruins was the single highest totaled game of the entire NCAA Tournament, and despite reaching 161 points, it stayed Under the closing total. Now, in another rematch from a VERY high scoring game earlier in the season is totaled low enough to expect Calipari’s ‘look for a very fast pace’ quote to cash an Over bet for us on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams really was a track meet; a 103-100 Kentucky victory in regulation! Neither team generated turnovers with their defensive pressure; both squads had open looks throughout and they knocked them down. Still, the game wasn’t a foul fest ( a combined 34 made free throws) and it still flew Over the total by 32 points; a game that closed with a total of 171. This total is a dozen points lower, with a different level of pressure compared to that early December matchup. Frankly, the 12 point differential between the total in the first meeting and this one is waaaay to much of an adjustment to make. North Carolina point guard Joel Berry looked back at 100% after an injury last weekend, hanging 26 of the Tar Heels 92 points on Butler Friday Night; by far the most points Butler had allowed all year – including overtime games! Roy Williams squad has been trending Over of late, cashing three Overs in their last four postseason games; all totaled in the 150’s. The Tar Heels are the best team in the country on the offensive glass, leading to easy putbacks without burning much clock. And defensive rebounding is not a major area of strength for Calipari’s squad. Expect a frenetic pace, excellent offensive efficiency and enough easy looks to send this game Over the total with room to spare. Take the Over. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 146 | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Xavier – Gonzaga UNDER (#513-514) Gonzaga’s offense hasn’t worked in the Big Dance. Point guard Nigel Williams-Goss – the WCC Player of the Year during the regular season -- is mired in a nasty slump. He’s shot a woeful 12-42 in the tournament so far, with nearly as many turnovers (nine) as assists (ten). When your point guard is struggling at this time of the season, it’s a real bugaboo to overcome. No surprise, then, that the Zags have been held in the 60’s twice in three tournament games, staying Under the total with plenty of room to spare both times. In fact, Gonzaga has been trending Under all month, 6-2 to the Under in their last eight games overall. It’s surely worth noting that both Over cashes came in games totaled below 140. Xavier can be expected to play zone defense for extended stretches this evening, forcing the Zags to hit perimeter jumpers from the soft spots in the zone. But with a struggling point guard, facing much tougher defensive competition than they saw in the WCC this year, the Zags shots just aren’t falling right now; averaging less than five made three pointers per game over their last five contests. But the Zags have been able to win their first three games of this tournament to survive to the Elite Eight because their defense is truly elite, ranked #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and #1 in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Musketeers have shot ‘lights out’ in this tourney; hitting 50% or better in all three games, despite the season ending injury to their own point guard, Edmond Summer, in the heart of Big East Conference play. I do NOT expect Xavier to approach or exceed 50% shooting again on Saturday facing this defense. Xavier has cashed only one Over ticket in seven games since March 1st. These two teams have met twice this decade, with the two games finishing with 137 and 118 points, despite late scramble points in both contests, cashing Under tickets each time. This ain’t no shootout…… Take the Under. |
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03-20-17 | UCF v. Illinois State UNDER 128 | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Illinois State – UCF UNDER (#615-616) If you’ve never heard or seen UCF 7-6, 300 pound low post stud Tacko Fall, tune in to ESPN tonight and Watch this shotblocking behemoth disrupt the Illinois State offense. UCF is the #1 team in the country in defensive field goal percentage allowed and #6 nationally in scoring defense. Fall was the AAC Defensive Player of the Year while setting a school record for blocked shots in a season. Illinois State knows what they’re up against. Head coach Dan Muller: “It's impressive how much he's improved in the last two years. It's not like he's this big guy who can't move. He's a good player. It's hard to simulate in practice.” Redbirds junior forward MiKyle McIntosh: “I've never played against anyone that tall. It's kind of cool. But at the same time you have to come out and play basketball. You can't worry about it. It will affect your shot if you keep worrying he's going to block it or alter it." The only problem with that theory is that Fall is worth worrying about! Illinois State faced an uptempo foe in the first round of the NIT, draining 13 three pointers while hitting 53% overall from the field in a rout over UC Irvine. Expect a very different pace tonight between these two plodding, methodical halfcourt teams. And it’s certainly not like the Redbirds are defensive slouches! Illinois State, like UCF, is a Top 10 team nationally in both field goal percentage defense and scoring defense. Muller’s squad is 9-3 to the Under in their last dozen games. Every one of those contests was totaled in a similar range as tonight’s contest; all between 119.5 and 137.5. First one to 60 wins here, in a game that has ‘defensive struggle’ written all over it! Take the Under. |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon OVER 151.5 | Top | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 46 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oregon – Iona OVER (#841-842) If you watched the NIT openers on Tuesday, you saw Ole Miss racing up and down the floor against Monmouth, hanging 91 points on the Hawks, shooting 52% from the field in the process; a game that flew Over the total by margin. What does that have to do with Oregon – Iona? Plenty! Iona and Monmouth were among the top few teams in the MAAC again this year. Iona’s defense is very comparable to Monmouth’s – weak. Their only shot blocker, Taylor Bessick, gets off the bench for only 14 minutes per game. They don’t force turnovers with ball pressure, they give up more than their fair share of transition buckets. Head coach Tim Cluess is clue-less in the Big Dance, a the Gaels have yet to cover a pointspread during his tenure thanks to those consistent defensive woes. In their opener last year the Gaels hung 81 on Iowa State…and lost by double digits, failing to cover the spread, in a game that flew over the total by double digits. In their NIT opener in 2015, they allowed 88 to Rhode Island, a game that flew Over the total by double digits. It was the same story in the NIT in 2014 (Louisiana Tech scored 89, the game flew Over by double digits) and the NCAA Tournament in 2013 (95 allowed to Ohio State, game flew Over by double digits). Look for Oregon’s remarkably efficient offense to run circles around the Gaels – the Ducks are a legit threat to hit 90 or higher in this ballgame. Iona has made the postseason every year despite these defensive deficiencies because Cluess sure knows how to coach offense – his teams put the biscuit in the basket, with four double digit scorers again this year (and two more who average just under ten points per game). And when we talk about impact injuries on the defensive end of the court, the Ducks loss of shot blocking center Chris Boucher really stands out. Boucher was not a great offensive player, but he was a low post difference maker on defense. In their first game without him in the lineup, the Ducks flew Over the total by more than 20 points in the PAC-12 championship game. Late season impact injuries on defense create confusion in the betting markets; markets that react more to full season stats than to any guesswork when it comes to how an injury will affect a total. That gives us a strong ‘positive expectation’ opportunity here, worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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03-16-17 | Nevada v. Iowa State OVER 156 | 73-84 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State – Nevada OVER (#729-730) It’s not hard to make a case betting Iowa State Over the total for their Big Dance opener against Nevada. After all, the betting markets haven’t been pricing Cyclones totals correctly for months! Iowa State has cashed nine straight Overs, including a 3-0 mark to the Over in the normally bogged down Big 12 Tournament; pushing the pace at every opportunity. A team that started the season 2-8 to the Under is 16-4 to the Over since. And it’s surely worth noting that all four Unders during that span came against teams looking to slow the Cyclones down into a half court game (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas St and Kansas). Nevada has a couple of things in common with Iowa State. First and foremost, like the Cyclones with four strong scorers averaging at least 12 points a game, four Wolfpack starters average at least 14 points per game. Defenses can’t concentrate on stopping one or two guys for either of these two squads; and both teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard even in a game where a handful of shooters are having an off night. No surprise, then, that Nevada, too, is trending strongly to the Over of late: 3-0 to Over in the Mountain West Tournament in Vegas; 6-1 to the Over in their last seven. The Wolfpack scored at least 79 points in each and every one of those seven contests despite a modest 46% shooting mark during that span – it’s been pace and offensive execution, not just hot shooting. So when Nevada and Iowa State match up in Milwaukee on Friday Night, we can expect a high scoring affair. These are two strong offensive teams playing at the top of their game right now, and the Bradley Center in Milwaukee is an excellent venue for shooters. Throw in a decent chance of late game ‘scramble’ points in this spread range and there’s ample reason to expect a wild, highly entertaining shootout in late action on Thursday. Take the Over. |
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03-06-17 | Bucks v. 76ers OVER 212 | 112-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Philadelphia OVER (#505-506) The 76ers defense has declined markedly since dealing Nerlens Noel at the trading deadline and benching Joel Embiid with his latest injury related setback. Without a low post defensive stopper, teams are driving into the paint without repercussion against Philly, getting off one good look after the next The results don’t lie. The 76ers have allowed 136, 102, 125, 119, 110 and 112 in six games since the All Star Break while allowing 49% shooting from the floor during that span. A team that ranked in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency for a good portion of the season is in the midst of a free fall now. The Bucks defense isn’t any better, ranked behind Philly for the full season while allowing 50% shooting from the floor in their last five ballgames. But their revamped offense is sizzling, averaging 108 points per game over the past month. And from all indications, we should expect this offense to continue pushing the pace and putting up points in bunches. Milwaukee center Spencer Hawes, coming off a 16 point effort off the bench against Toronto: “I think we were just playing the right way. Everybody was moving the ball. We were playing defense, first of all, and pushing the ball in transition. Everyone was touching it. ... It was just clicking." Bucks head coach Jason Kidd, talking about sitting his bigs and playing uptempo: “Today's game, it's not played like it was in the '80s. You don't have two bigs. Going forward, there's going to be a lot of small ball being played.You put your best five out there. Cleveland puts their best five out there and there's no one probably taller than 6-9." Small ball correlates with fast paced play and Over cashes, plain and simple. When Jason Kidd and Brett Brown have matched up, there’s been one consistent result: Overs! These two teams flew Over the total in the first two meetings this year by double digit margins, now 6-1 to the Over in the last seven matchups. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the OVER. |
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03-05-17 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 138 | 93-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska – Michigan OVER (#849-850) Michigan is most assuredly not playing elite level defense down the stretch of their Big 10 campaign. The stats show it very clearly. The Wolverines rank #12 out of 14 Big 10 teams in defensive efficiency. They rank #327 in the country defending the three point line. They don’t force many turnovers either, leading to consistently poor defensive showings. In their last two games, Northwestern and Purdue lit up the Wolverines defense, combining to shoot better than 50% from the floor against them. And without a bigtime low post shot blocker, Nebraska’s offensive gameplan is primed to generate high percentage looks in the paint, just like they did in the first meeting in Ann Arbor, when they shot 56% from the floor and hung 85 points on the scoreboard. Facing a Michigan defense that has allowed a whopping 50.5% shooting from the floor against them on the highway for the full season, we can expect the Huskers to do their fair share of damage on the scoreboard tonight. Of course Michigan didn’t lose that first meeting – they hung 92 on the Cornhuskers behind 54% shooting. That game was the rule, not the exception for Michigan’s offense, ranked #1 in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency by a wide margin; right between Duke and Kansas in the national rankings (#11). And there’s little reason to expect Michigan’s offense to get shut down here – Nebraska hasn’t been getting stops against anybody of late. In recent weeks, the Huskers have allowed 8 8 to Minnesota, 88 to Michigan State, 81 to Iowa and 80 to Purdue, not exactly ‘shut down’ defense. In a series where the first meeting went Over the total by 43.5 points in regulation, I have little hesitation expecting another relatively high scoring affair in the rematch. Take the Over. |
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03-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit UNDER 147 | 85-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Wisconsin Milwaukee UNDER (#871-872) Detroit wants to run and gun, exactly what they were able to do on the road at Wisconsin-Milwaukee last week. The Titans played the game at their pace, and won outright as 3 point underdogs, 81-74. The first meeting between these two teams was played at Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s pace, right here in Detroit. The game was tied at 61-61 at the end of regulation, staying Under the closing total of 150 even after overtime. So what should we expect from the third meeting? Wisc- Milwaukee head coach LaVall Jordan tell you himself: “They didn’t see the best version of us this past Friday, and so we get a chance to redeem ourselves from that…. Guarding them without fouling is a big deal, and us trying to control the pace. I thought we did a better job in Game 1 than we did in Game 2. They play up and down, they score a lot of points and then they try to make you play faster than you normally play. In Game 2, they did that. We have to respond better.” Neither team shoots particularly well, from the floor or from the free throw line. For this game to get Over the total, it’s going to take a fast pace, something the Panthers are clearly focused on preventing. That makes this game worthy of an Under wager in afternoon action on Friday. Take the Under. |
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02-25-17 | Purdue v. Michigan OVER 140 | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Purdue OVER (#629-630) The Wolverines are a dead nuts Over team when stepping up in class, against strong offensive foes. Why? Because Michigan’s offense is pretty darn efficient, but their defense is spotty at best! When the Wolverines faced the Boilermakers earlier this season, Purdue’s inside/outside balance gave the Wolverines fits as Purdue shot 53% from the floor in a 17 point win. The UCLA game stands out as well; another game against a strong offensive foe in which the Wolverines defense was hopeless, right from the opening tip; a game where the Bruins scored 102 points, flying Over the total by 40. The stats show it very clearly. The Wolverines rank #12 out of 14 Big 10 teams in defensive efficiency. They rank #327 in the country defending the three point line. They don’t force many turnovers either, leading to consistently poor defensive showings against the elite offensive teams. Purdue ranks among the Top 20 teams in the country in offensive efficiency, and I expect Purdue to approach or exceed their point total from the first meeting. Michigan struggled offensively at Purdue: only seven made free throws, less than 38% shooting overall and just 24% shooting from three point range. But the Wolverines still had a strong assist-to-turnover ratio in that game, and the Wolverines offense is a completely different animal in Ann Arbor, where they have scored 76 points per game on 49% shooting for the full season. They’ve hung 90 on Indiana and 86 on Michigan State in recent games at Crisler Arena; primed for another offensive outburst here. Take the OVER. |
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02-16-17 | Celtics v. Bulls OVER 213 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Chicago OVER (#703-704) The Bulls snapped a three game skid with an impressive win over Toronto on Tuesday. Head Coach Fred Hoiberg made it very clear after the game why they won – pushing the pace, turning turnovers into fast break buckets. Ask coach Fred Hoiberg for the key to the Bulls’ victory Tuesday against the Raptors, and he’ll quickly point to their pace of play. Hoiberg highlighted the 20 fast-break points that Chicago got against Toronto. “I think our team is at our best when we can go down and get a quick strike before the defense gets set. You look at the really good elite shooters, and they get a lot of shots in transition. Transition basketball simply provides a greater variety of scoring options.” Center Robin Lopez, talking about pushing the pace: “I think we’re worlds different. That makes everybody a threat on the floor to score.” Several of Chicago’s slower moving players are hurt, most notably Dwayne Wade, not expected to suit up this evening. The absence of backup forward Paul Zipser has led to some tweaking of the reserve units. Doug McDermott, Cristiano Felicio and Denzel Valentine were particularly effective pushing the pace against the Raptors, likely to see floor time together here, too. The Celtics aren’t shy about running up and down the floor, even on the second night of back-2-backs. And when Boston plays a decent or good team on the road, watch out for fireworks. The Celtics are 10-1-1 to the Over in their last dozen road games when facing an opponent with a winning home record. A Celtics team with 21 Over cashes in their last 29 games is worth riding Over here on the night before the All Star Break…. a night where defensive energy and execution are often optional. Take the Over. |
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02-11-17 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 134.5 | 74-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Gonzaga – St Mary’s UNDER (#679-680) St Mary’s doesn’t just play slowdown basketball. They play as slow as any team in the country, ranked #350 out of 351 teams in offensive tempo. The Gaels don’t fast break, they don’t create turnovers defensively leading to transition opportunities and they’re not a great offensive rebounding team for easy second chance putbacks. But for as slow as the Gaels offense is, their defense forces the games to be played even slower. St Mary’s ranks #351 out of 351 teams in defensive pace – they don’t turn it over, they don’t allow anything in transition and they control the defensive glass as well as any team in the country, ranked #1 in that statistical category. We’ve only seen one Over cash in the last ten meetings between these two teams, with the loser held to 60 points or less eight times during that span. When these teams played in Spokane last month, the Zags shot 65% from the floor, including 53% from three point range. The Under still cashed! Don’t expect the Zags to approach those shooting percentages tonight, setting the stage for a relatively low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 58.5 | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 53 m | Show | |
Total: Take the Under (#101-102) The Patriots red zone defense is very good, and their defensive gameplan is likely to be about avoiding the big play, something that stop unit has excelled at all season. I’m also expecting New England to try and keep Matt Ryan off the field, focusing on their run game more than Tom Brady whipping the ball around. Wiseguys have been pounding the ‘Over’ on the ‘Total Made Field Goals’ prop, and for good reason – while we can expect plenty of scoring drives, the sharp $$ is convinced that this is not going to be a touchdown-fest. We’ve had four Super Bowl totals higher than 50 in the 21st century. Those games are 4-0 to the Under, with all four staying Under by more than a touchdown, and three of them staying Under by more than two touchdowns! All it takes is one extended seven or eight minute drive that ends in a fourth down stop or a turnover, or even a field goal and the Over will be in jeopardy. Take the UNDER. |
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01-29-17 | Washington v. Arizona UNDER 155 | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Arizona – Washington UNDER (#861-862) The Washington Huskies offense hasn’t worked against Arizona’s stout defense in any recent meeting. The results don’t lie. Lorenzo Romar’s squad has put up 72, 67, 62, 62, 52, and 53 points in the last six meetings between these two teams, unable to solve Sean Miller’s defense, while going 4-2 to the Under in the process. And there’s little reason to expect a dramatically different result today. The Huskies aren’t shooting well, hitting only 42% from the floor in PAC-12 play, not atypical of a team that relies heavily on freshmen and sophomores (their top six scorers!) for the bulk of their offense. That’s very bad news against a Wildcats squad that is truly stout defensively (40% shooting allowed for the year), with a pair of seven footers patrolling the paint to go along with their NBA caliber wing defenders. In fact, the Wildcats rank #15 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the well respected Ken Pom ratings. Romar: “We haven’t scored the ball well since conference has started. So in the midst of that, you have, in my opinion, the best defensive team in our league in Arizona. We’re going to have to find a way to score points…..You can combat that if you are able to impose your will on a team and make them play faster, but with our personnel” it’s not happening. This is the third highest total of the season for Arizona, after playing relatively fast paced games against UCLA and Arizona State here in January. Both the Sun Devils and the Bruins shot well against ‘Zona in those games, and the Wildcats shot 50% or better from the floor both times. I’m not expecting those type of shooting percentages today from either side……Take the Under. |
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01-26-17 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 231 | 120-127 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Phoenix UNDER (#705-706) When these two teams met twice back in November, the games were totaled at 214.5 and 219. None of last year’s meetings were totaled higher than 215. Yet we’re looking at a 231 posted for tonight’s matchup, despite the fact that the Nuggets are playing without their speedy young point guard. With backup Jameer Nelson at the point, Denver has no business with totals above 230, despite the season long stats that say this total is warranted. The results don’t lie. Nuggets point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is listed as doubtful tonight, dealing with a bad back. Mudiay got hurt three games ago, in the first half against the Clippers. Those three games all stayed Under the total. He missed one game back in December at Washington. That game was totaled at 218.5, but finished with only 177, staying a whopping 51 points under the total. That’s three games without Mudiay and one game where he got hurt early, resulting in a 4-0 mark to the Under. Jameer Nelson just doesn’t push the pace or get the offense into the same quick flow as Mudiay has been doing. The Suns are on the second night of back-2-backs, playing in altitude; not a ‘push the pace’ scenario. Earl Watson’s squad is 25-12 to the Over when rested, but there’s been no similar Over trend on the second of back-2-backs. Phoenix won two games on their last road trip – at Toronto and at New York – both of which stayed Under the total. And for anyone who’s been watching the Suns, it’s clear that they play their best basketball when slowdown big man Tyson Chandler is getting ample minutes, as we can expect him to get tonight. Take the Under. |
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01-23-17 | Spurs v. Nets OVER 217 | 112-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn – San Antonio OVER (#505-506) The Spurs have cashed six consecutive Over bets, and there’s ample reason to think that San Antonio will continue to trend Over the total in the near future. Brooklyn has cashed four Over bets at 221 or higher in their last five games, another team that we can expect to continue trending Over moving forward. When these two teams met in San Antonio last month, we saw 231 points scored; a game that flew Over the total by more than 20 points. And even though the betting markets have adjusted this total upwards for tonight’s rematch, they haven’t adjusted enough in what is primed to be another high scoring affair. The Spurs defense took a big hit when Pau Gasol got hurt, forcing David Lee and his invisible defense into Greg Popovich’s starting lineup. It’s not like San Antonio has been playing championship caliber defense at any point in recent weeks, allowing 107 points per game on 45% shooting over their last five contests. Brooklyn lacks ‘name recognition’ superstars, but Kenny Atkinson’s bevy of role players have developed a nice offensive rhythm of late, averaging 116 points on 47% shooting in their last five contests. And these quotes speak volumes about a team finding their offensive mojo. Rookie guard Isaiah Whitehead: “I think we’re finally starting to get that the extra pass is the best option on offense. When we’re swinging the ball, swinging the ball, when it goes from side-to-side [and] then you make the extra pass, most likely someone is going to be wide open. I think we’re getting that picture and we’re just sharing the ball.” Veteran guard Randy Foye: “It’s just been a fun brand of basketball. It’s something that he (Atkinson) talked about from the beginning, and it’s just been cool — you saw glimpses, but now we’re really starting to see it. I said to Isaiah seeing is believing, and when you see it — and you saw what happens when we share the ball — then you start believing.” The Nets defense is atrocious – every good shooting team lights them up. Each of Brooklyn’s last five opponents has scored 112+ against them; bad news against a Spurs squad that is clicking on all cylinders on the offensive end of the floor. With both the Nets and the Spurs primed to execute their offensive efficiently, we can expect a high scoring Shootout, primed to fly Over the total with ease. Take the Over. |
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01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 16-34 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 47 m | Show | |
Take New England – Houston UNDER (#303-304) There’s one central question in this game – how are the Houston Texans going to score? Houston got shut out in New England when they visited in Week 3. They didn’t cross midfield until the fourth quarter of that game, in garbage time of a 27-0 defeat. And the Texans offense isn’t poised to crack the New England defense this time around either Don’t be fooled by the Texans 27 point offensive ‘outburst’ against the Raiders mediocre stop unit last week. The Texans took a 10-0 lead without getting a first down on either of their scoring drives, just taking advantage of a rookie QB who wasn’t ready for primetime. Another TD came after a huge pass interference call at the one yard line, and their other TD came largely due to one big play downfield to DeAndre Hopkins. All the problems that the Texans offense has suffered this season were still on full display last week. Lamar Miller was healthy, but he couldn’t find holes to run through, gaining just 73 yards on his 31 carries. Brock Osweiler had only 168 passing yards, looking very much like the same QB who got benched for ineffectiveness in Week 15, less than a month ago; the same QB who threw more interceptions than touchdown passes while finishing the year ranked next to last in the NFL in QB Rating among full time starters. That’s bad news against a surging, fundamentally sound Patriots defense that has held six of their last seven opponents to 17 points or less. Matt Patricia’s defense played their best down the stretch – New England’s last three foes managed a combined 20 points against this stop unit. It’s hard to picture a scenario in which the Texans march up and down the field against New England. The Texans defense finished the regular season ranked #1 by conventional metrics, despite the fact that they played the entire season without JJ Watt. Jadeveon Clowney emerged as an elite pass rusher in Watt’s absence. Vince Wilfork is still a space eater at defensive tackle. The LB corps has plenty of star power too, with Brian Cushing and Whitney Mercilus leading the way. And the Texans secondary is loaded - -don’t expect Tom Brady to have open receivers to throw too al evening. The Pats gameplan here is simple, right out of the March Madness playbook – survive and advance. They don’t want Tom Brady taking extra hits from a nasty defense, and they’re quite comfortable and capable of grinding clock by running LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis between the tackles to preserve any second half lead. Expect an ugly grinder, not a high octane shootout. Take the UNDER. |
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01-13-17 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 203.5 | 108-116 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Miami – Milwaukee UNDER (#707-708) Eric Spoelstra put out his 17th different starting lineup for Miami at Golden State on Wednesday Night, sending Goran Dragic, Rodney McGruder, Dion Waiters, Luke Babbitt and Hassan Whiteside out on the floor to open the game. In fact, the only Heat players who haven’t started a game yet this season are Tyler Johnson, James Johnson and Udonis Haslem. That’s a big part of the reason why Miami has been so lousy offensively this year, ranked #29 in offensive efficiency out of 30 NBA teams. Their pace has been consistently slow, ranked in the bottom ten in the NBA in tempo rankings. And while Spoelistra has talked the talk about pushing tempo, that hasn’t actually translated into fast paced basketball on the court with his injury riddled roster. Spoelstra’s quote following his latest lineup change doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that Miami is going to get their act together on the offensive end of the floor. “Look, we’ve tried everything so everything is on the table.” One thing Miami has done consistently this year is to avoid getting into shootouts with high octane foes. That was clearly on display at Golden State earlier in the week in a game that stayed 16 points Under the total. It was a similar story against the uptempo Suns earlier on the road trip, a game that stayed 22.5 points Under. Miami’s only previous meeting with Milwaukee this year was a brickfest, staying 33 points Under the total, as the Bucks were held to a season low 73 points. Spoelstra is a bright coach with two rings, and he knows that a slowdown, defensive minded approach is his team’s best chance to compete. The Bucks have shot ‘lights out’ of late, hitting 49% from the floor and 42% from three point range over their last five games. Yet the Bucks are 3-2 to the UNDER during that span, despite all of that hot shooting, a clear indicator that their totals are being lined a notch or two too high right now. Let’s take advantage! Take the Under. |
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01-11-17 | Michigan v. Illinois UNDER 137 | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Illinois UNDER (#755-756) Illinois head coach John Groce was not amused by the Illini defensive weakness in their last game. Illinois allowed 96 points to Indiana on 64% shooting from two point range, 52% from three point range. The loss marked the second time in three games that Illinois had allowed 80+ on 55+% shooting. Groce: “We haves wrinkled up a few things pertaining to Michigan. We always have adaptations based on opponents and scouting. But in terms of lineups, there will be changes. It’s nothing personal but we have to defend better. We have to push more buttons defensively.” While Groce didn’t give many more details, we can expect defensive minded Maverick Morgan to take over at center for Mike Thorne. And we can expect additional playing time for freshmen Kipper Nichols and Te’Jon Lucas, both of whom bring a defensive focus to the court. Michigan head coach John Beilein hasn’t been amused by the Wolverines defense either; a team that has cashed seven consecutive Over bets. Beilein: “(The defense) couldn’t be much simpler than it is right now. We’re doing a classic hedge. We’re tagging guys. We’re probably doing less than we’ve done before. We’re in the right places a lot of times, but we’re just not in there enough, in that right place.” Senior guard Andrew Dakich echoed his coach’s defensive mindset. “Now, we gotta get it, there’s no excuse. There’s no, ‘OK you guys are young, you shouldn’t understand this.’ But we’re a veteran group.” Expect a spirited defensive effort for BOTH teams here, resulting in a relatively low scoring affair. Take the Under. |
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12-24-16 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 52.5 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 52 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Oakland – Indianapolis OVER (#119-120) It’s not hard to make a case for the Colts going Over the total on the road against any high octane foe. The Colts are 6-1 to the Over on the highway this year, and their only Under – last week – came against the Vikings hapless offense, ranked at or near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every statistical category. There was one key factor in Indy’s blowout over the Vikings last week that has not been fully recognized by the betting markets. Andrew Luck spent most of the season under constant pressure, playing behind a porous offensive line. Luck took a whopping 31 sacks in his first eight games, despite a propensity for getting the ball out of his hands quickly. But Chuck Pagano has finally found an OL combination that works. Luck raved about it at practice last week, then proceeded to have a spectacular game against a previously top notch defense, without taking a single sack. Indy had 21 first downs and 27 points on the scoreboard by halftime, including a pair of 90+ yard TD drives. Even with Luck limited in practice this week with an issue with his thumb, Indy’s noticeably improved ground game last week is primed to give them enough balance to move the ball effectively and efficiently; just as they’ve done in every road game all year. The Raiders offensive numbers have taken a dive since Derek Carr’s finger injury. But he’s a full month removed from hurting that finger. Two weeks ago, against KC in frigid conditions, Carr really didn’t look right throwing the football. That was not the case last week – he looked fine, but the Raiders suffered through a ton of miscues – little mistakes, like dropped passes and missed blocking assignments -- correctable issues. And coming off a game in which Oakland converted on only one of a whopping seven red zone opportunities into touchdowns, I’m expecting far more efficiency this time around. Oakland has been an Over machine on this field all year, 5-1 to the Over in their first six home games. The only Under came against a KC defense that clearly gives them trouble. The Raiders have put up big points against some pretty good defenses: 30 against the Broncos, 38 against the Bills; scoring at least four TD’s in all five of those Overs. This is the highest totaled game on the NFL betting board this weekend for a reason….Take the Over. |
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12-24-16 | Redskins v. Bears OVER 47 | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Chicago – Washington OVER (#103-104) Last week, Solider Field was a frozen tundra, yet the Bears and Packers combined for 57 points in a game that flew Over the total. This week, it’s expected to be above freezing at Soldier Field, and we can expect these two ‘chuck it downfield’ offenses to put up points in bunches once again. My clients and I have cashed a handful of Redskins Over bets this year, with Washington ranked as the #2 Over team in the NFL, cashing 11 Overs in 14 games, including six straight Overs prior to their Monday Night debacle against Carolina. Here’s an excerpt from my last Redskins Over write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Redskins defense is mediocre on a good day; a stop unit that has only held one opponent below 20 points all year. But let's not sell the Redskins offense short either. The Redskins rank #2 in the NFL, gaining 6.4 yards per snap. Kirk Cousins has weapons all over the field to throw to: Jordan Reed (healthy again), Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, DeSean Jackson and Vernon Davis ALL have all least 40 catches and more than 500 receiving yards. This offense, too, is in great current form, in the top quartile of the NFL in points scored.” Chicago with gunslinger Matt Barkley behind center is every bit the Over team that Washington is. The Bears injury riddled defense is primed to get picked apart by Washington’s high octane passing attack, but Chicago is capable of trading points these days. They had two 100 yard receivers last week, and that doesn’t count ‘back from suspension’ Alshon Jeffrey, who had six catches for 89 yards with a TD. With Jordan Howard providing offensive balance on the ground, this Bears offense is plenty potent right now, primed to cash another Over bet on Saturday. Take the Over. |
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12-03-16 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 208 | 84-128 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Toronto – Atlanta UNDER (#705-706) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up last night supporting Toronto Under the total; a 20 point winner. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “Toronto comes into this game with a 13-5-1 mark to the Over. That’s why we’ve got a total north of 207 for tonight’s matchup; a game in which Toronto wants to focus on defense. It’s the wrong total range for this particular ballgame, regardless of full season trends. And the Raptors have shot 50% from three point range in their last five games, an unsustainable percentage that has left tonight’s total a tad bit inflated. “Raptors head coach Dwayne Casey called out his team for a lack of “defensive presence” in their previous game, unable to put away the short-handed Grizzlies until the latter stages of the fourth quarter. Toronto has their two best perimeter defenders back healthy in DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph, while reserve center Lucas Nogueira is developing into a low post defensive force, a nasty shot blocker.” None of the four meetings last year produced more than 202 points, cashing 3 Unders in the process. And there’s no reason to expect a breakneck pace this evening either. The Hawks got embarrassed at home last night, losing 121-85 against the Pistons; allowing 54% from the floor overall and 59% from three point range, while getting outrebounded by 23. Don’t expect that sort of anemic effort on the defensive end tonight after Budenholzer called his team out following last night’s defeat. And with Atlanta’s offense really struggling of late with Dennis Schroeder at the point – averaging just 94 points per game over their last ten contests – this game has all the makings of another easy Under cash, just like last night! Take the Under. |
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12-02-16 | Lakers v. Raptors UNDER 213.5 | 80-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Toronto – LA Lakers UNDER (#503-504) Both the Lakers and the Raptors have been trending Over in early season play. Toronto comes into this game with a 13-5 mark to the Over, while the Lakers have cashed a dozen Over tickets in their first 20 games. That’s why we’ve got a total north of 213 for tonight’s matchup; a game in which LA wants to slow the pace and Toronto wants to focus on defense. It’s the wrong total range for this particular ballgame, regardless of full season trends. The Lakers are shorthanded in their backcourt right now, playing without DeAngelo Russell and Nick Young. Without that duo on the floor, Luke Walton has slowed down the pace. LA just notched their first victory of the season at Chicago in a game where they didn’t reach 100 points, their fourth consecutive Under and it wasn’t even close – the Under cashed with 23 points to spare. Luke Walton’s quote following the game: “(We) held them to I think 35 percent from the field shooting, which is all we talked about pregame, was defense. That's it. Defense. If you're committed to the defensive end on basketball, you always give yourself a chance." Toronto head coach Dwayne Casey called out his team for a lack of “defensive presence” in their last game, unable to put away the short handed Grizzlies until the latter stages of the fourth quarter. Toronto has their two best perimeter defenders back healthy in DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph, while reserve center Lucas Nogueira is developing into a low post defensive force, a nasty shot blocker. The Raptors have shot 51% from three point range in their last five games, an unsustainable percentage that has left tonight’s total a tad bit inflated. Both meetings last year produced 195 points or less, cashing Unders each time. No surprise here if tonight’s game is another ‘no sweat’ Under result! Take the Under. |
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11-28-16 | Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 195 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota – Utah UNDER (#509-510) There have been two previous meetings between Quin Snyder and Tom Thibodeau as NBA head coaches, the two Jazz – Bulls games from the 2014-15 campaign. Neither team reached 100 in either meeting: 97-77 and 97-95 final scores, both games staying well Under the total. These teams met four times last year. Three of the four meetings stayed Under the total by big margins – the loser was held to 90 or less in all four games, and the winner failed to reach 100 in three of them. These are not two teams or two coaches looking to run up and down the floor. And that’s exactly what we can expect tonight – a slower paced, defensive minded game. In this pointspread range, there’s a decent chance we end up with a tight, one possession game in the latter stages of the fourth quarter, great for depressing scoring without late ‘scramble’ points. This total is set based on full season numbers. But looking at Minnesota’s full season numbers right now is an exercise in ‘betting bad numbers’. Thibodeau is a defensive guy, but the T-wolves defense has been spotty in early season play – no surprise there. In their first ten games of the season, Minnesota allowed more than 100 points eight times while going 7-3 to the Over. But as Thibodeau has gotten his players more comfortable on the defensive end, the T-wolves numbers have changed fairly dramatically in recent weeks. They’ve held four of their last six foes under 100; 5-1 to the Under during that span. This team is head and shoulders better on the defensive end of the court compared to where they were a month ago, but the markets haven’t made the appropriate adjustments……yet! The T-wolves are coming off a rough defensive game, lit up for 56% shooting and 115 points by the Golden State Warriors. Yet even in that game, their defensive improvement clearly showed, holding a Warriors team that had 47 assists in their previous home game, but only 25 assists against Minnesota. I’m very interested in taking the T-wolves Under following a game in which they allowed 115, even if it was against the Warriors. Utah, too, had some early season defensive deficiencies, but not lately! The Jazz are coming off a truly stifling defensive effort against the Hawks, holding Atlanta to 68 points on 31% shooting. Low post stud Rudy Gobert: “I’m pleased with the way my teammates played. I try to push them to focus on defense. When we’re playing good defense, it’s hard to beat us. Tonight, we did our best defensive game of the year.” That game was not an aberration in any way. The Jazz rank #2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and their D is even better now that point guard George Hill is back on the floor following an injury absence. Expect a slow paced defensive struggle from start to finish in a game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Dallas OVER (#109-110) There’s no reason to overthink this one. Nobody has shut down the Cowboys offense in the last two months. In their last eight games, the Cowboys have scored at least 24 points in every game. At home, they’ve scored at least 28 in every game. With the NFL’s best offensive line, the NFL’s leading rusher at RB and a bevy of weapons for Dak Prescott to throw to downfield, the Cowboys offense ranks among the NFL’s elite. And when the Cowboys offense get into the red zone, they score touchdowns; one of the biggest benefits of a balanced attack. When Dallas faced Washington earlier in the season, it was Dak Prescott’s first NFL road start. Prescott was 22-30 for 278 yards in that game, including a game winning drive late in the fourth quarter. He’s much more seasoned now, and the offense around him has only gotten better. Facing a Redskins defense that is mediocre on a good day – a stop unit that has only held one opponent below 20 points all year – look for Dallas to march up and down the field on Turkey Day. But let’s not sell the Redskins offense short either. The Cowboys rank #3 in the NFL, gaining 6.2 yards per snap. The Redskins rank #2 in the NFL, gaining 6.4 yards per snap. Kirk Cousins has weapons all over the field to throw to: Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, DeSean Jackson and Vernon Davis ALL have all least 26 catches and at least 382 receiving yards. This offense, too, is in great current form, hanging 27+ in each of their last three games. Expect a wild, highly entertaining Thanksgiving Day Shootout that flies up and Over the total. Take the Over |
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11-19-16 | Northwestern v. Minnesota OVER 45 | 12-29 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Northwestern OVER (#331-332) Northwestern struggled offensively for the first month of the season, going 1-3 SU while failing to score more than 24 points in any of those games, going 4-0 to the Under in the process. They woke up offensively against Iowa, hanging 38 on the Hawkeyes stout defense. Following their bye week, they hung 54 in East Lansing, going Over the total all by themselves. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald following that victory over the Spartans: "We weren't very good (before). I have zero answers other than that we didn't coach well enough and didn't play well enough, but we have stayed the course and kept grinding. Good things usually happen when you respond." Northwestern’s offense didn’t stay at that level of execution following that game, facing three consecutive quality defenses, including Ohio State and Wisconsin. But when they stepped down in defensive class last week, the offense once again moved the ball up and down the field. The Wildcats gained 605 yards and put up 45 points at Purdue; a balanced attack with a pair of 100 yard rushers at running back and a solid showing from NFL prospect sophomore QB Clayton Thorson. And there’s ample reason to believe they’ll be able to continue moving the football effectively against this mediocre Golden Gophers stop unit. Minnesota’s defense allowed bottom feeder Rutgers to hang 32 and bottom feeder Purdue to hang 31 on them in their last two home games. The Gophers aren’t a ‘sexy’ offensive team, lacking an elite level QB. But Minnesota can run the ball against just about anybody, with Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks at RB, and senior WR Drew Wolitarsky has emerged as a legit downfield weapon for QB Mitch Leidner. And while the weather on Friday is cold and snowy, field conditions should be just fine on Saturday, setting us up for a relatively high scoring affair. Take the Over. |
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11-15-16 | Hawks v. Heat UNDER 200.5 | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Miami UNDER (#703-704) Eric Spoelstra designs defenses to slow down Mike Budenholzer’s motion offense as well as any coach in basketball. That’s how the Heat beat the Spurs in the NBA Finals in 2013, when Budenholzer was still Gregg Popovich’s top assistant. And that’s how Miami has consistently stifled Atlanta offensively since Budenholzer got there, including a 5-1 run to the Under in the last six meetings between these two teams. And the rebuilt Heat have only one effective choice for their gameplan this season – slow down the pace and play gritty defense. The Heat do NOT play pretty offensive basketball right now, especially with starting point guard Goran Dragic expected to miss his third straight game with a bum ankle. The Heat haven’t hit 100 points in regulation in any game since their season opener, averaging less than 90 points per game on 41% shooting over their last five contests. That included uptempo games against fast paced teams like the Bulls and Thunder. Plain and simple – Miami lacks shooters, an offensively challenged ballclub. But the Heat can play defense! Hassan Whiteside is altering every shot in the paint while Justice Winslow and Tyler Johnson are effectively using their length and athleticism wreaking havoc on the perimeter. And with Derrick Williams replacing Luke Babbitt in the starting lineup, Spoelstra just benched his weakest defender! Atlanta can play defense too! Dwight Howard has been an early season difference maker on that end of the floor, ranked #7 in the NBA in blocked shots, despite limited minutes. And, after a series of games against uptempo foes – Chicago, Cleveland and Houston in their last four games, along with the defensively challenged 76ers – the Hawks aren’t likely to be able to get out and run against Miami’s transition defense. Last, but not least, even if this game turns into a foul-fest, we’re not dead! The Hawks and Heat rank #29 and #30 in free throw shooting percentage, the two worst foul shooting teams in the NBA. Clank! Take the Under. |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants OVER 47.5 | 20-21 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Take New York Giants – Cincinnati OVER (#275-276) Success in the modern NFL is largely about one thing – playmakers. Teams that have ‘quick strike’ scoring options tend to do much better than teams that don’t. Methodical, time consuming drives are nice, but Over bettors are looking for big play TD’s. And when it comes to big play TD playmakers, both of these teams are loaded! Eli Manning is working with arguably the best receiving corps of his career. Odell Beckham Jr has 44 catches for 676 yards, Sterling Shepard is at 34/384 and Victor Cruz is at 25/377. Eli Manning has only taken 11 sacks on 317 dropbacks and starting RB Rashard Jennings appears back to full strength. No surprise, then, that the Giants have hung 27 and 28 points against two solid defenses in their last two home games, primed for similar success tonight. Cinci’s offensive numbers have been deflated all year due to a one consistent problem – a lack of red zone execution, routinely settling for field goals instead of punching in touchdowns. They spent the first half of the season in the bottom quartile of red zone TD%. Then Tyler Eifert returned to the field, getting the rust off against Cleveland and following that up with a nine catch effort against the Redskins in London. In those two games, with Eifert on the field, the Bengals enjoyed their two highest scoring contests of the season, flying Over the total both times. They scored touchdowns five times on six red zone tries in the two games combined. RB’s Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard have suddenly found room to run: 57 carries for 376 yards in those two contests. The Bengals full season numbers aren’t telling the truth about their offense right now. Both teams have key defensive injuries in play, with Cinci expected to be without starting middle linebacker Rey Maualaga and the Giants missing starting safety Darian Thompson, who just went on IR. Coupled with the Giants offensive prowess and this very reasonable total, we can expect a relatively high scoring affair this evening, flying Over the total. Take the Over. |
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11-12-16 | Michigan v. Iowa UNDER 51 | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 56 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Iowa UNDER (#209-210) This is, in essence, a bet AGAINST the Iowa offense and ON the Iowa defense. Here’s what I wrote about the Hawkeye offense last week, prior to their ugly 41-14 loss at Penn State: “Even against lesser competition, there are some MAJOR red flags showing for Iowa. QB CJ Beathard hasn’t had time to throw, taking 18 sacks already, tied for #92 in the country. Beathard isn’t loaded with playmaking weapons on the outside either – when Iowa falls behind, they’re not built to battle back. “Against Wisconsin, Iowa didn’t reach the end zone. Beathard took another four sacks and averaged only 4.6 yards per pass attempt. In each of their three losses this season, the Hawkeyes have failed to gain more than 83 yards on the ground. This offense is broken, and it’s not getting fixed without a talent infusion.” Michigan’s defense is national championship caliber. They’ve allowed more than 14 points only twice all year. Iowa has been held to 14 or less four times in their last six games, even against the likes of Rutgers and Minnesota’s defenses. For this game to get up and over the total, the Wolverines are going to have to cover this -21.5 point spread by a fairly wide margin. And I’m not convinced that the Wolverines offense is primed to light up the scoreboard here. After basically quitting last week, head coach Kirk Ferentz lit into his team this week, particularly on the defensive side of the football. And a fired up, feisty Iowa defense is the strength of that football team, holding foes to 17 points or less in half their games this year. Michigan has faced only one road ‘test’ all year; at throughout disappointing Michigan State. The offense didn’t click in that game, nor did it click against the only quality defense they’ve faced all year, against Wisconsin. The Wolverines scored 16 and 21 on their last two visits to Iowa City in games that produced 45 points or less both times, and this game has all the makings of another defensive struggle. Take the Under. |
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11-07-16 | Pistons v. Clippers UNDER 198 | 82-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – LA Clippers UNDER (#711-712) Through the first two weeks of the season, the LA Clippers have the #1 scoring defense in the NBA. The Detroit Pistons rank #2 in that category. From a ‘Defensive Efficiency’ standpoint, LA ranks #1 and Detroit is #5. From an ‘opponents shooting percentage’ standpoint, LA ranks #2 and Detroit ranks #3. This is not a game where we should expect many easy transition buckets or good looks near the basket! After allowing less than 90 points in three straight games, the Pistons didn’t show up on defense at Brooklyn last week, allowing a 109 point outburst on 54% shooting. Stan Van Gundy was not amused, benching Andre Drummond for the entire fourth quarter. Tobias Harris, following the game: “They got to the basket at will.” Van Gundy’s team got his message. Last time out they shut down the Nuggets, holding Denver to 33% shooting. Drummond was a low post force, with 20 rebounds and three blocks. The Pistons are a team built on defense, riding a 4-1 run of Unders, and their lone Over drew a severe coaching rebuke. It’s also worth noting that Detroit is playing without their starting point guard, Reggie Jackson, never a bad thing for Under bettors. The Clippers are taking real pride in their defense this year, something Doc Rivers has been emphasizing since Day 1 of training camp. They’ve held their last five opponents to an average of just 87 points per game, including an impressive blowout at San Antonio over the weekend. Blake Griffin, following the win: “It starts with defense. I know we always say that, but it really does.” Doc Rivers: “Our defense has been as good as I've seen it. Our hands are everywhere right now, and that's a good sign.” Take the Under. |
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10-31-16 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 211 | 118-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn - Chicago OVER (#503-504) Fred Hoiberg has him team in place in Chicago now, instead of last year’s mismatched roster. Hoiberg’s style is run and gun, and the Bulls have not disappointed in that regard hanging 115, 109 and 118 in their first three games, none of which came against teams that want to push the pace. The Bulls pace ratings are not particularly fast, hence the lack of betting market support for this Over tonight. Their shooting percentage 45% is slightly above league average, nothing significant. But where the Bulls have been noticeably good is from three point range – they’re spreading the floor and getting good, open looks on the perimeter. Point guard Rajon Rondo: “We’ve been practicing about 30 days straight. The chemistry is coming along.” This is likely to be a problem for Brooklyn defensively ; not exactly a stellar defensive squad, particularly on the perimeter where Brook Lopez can’t defend. The Nets are 3-0 ATS, however, because they do two things well. They’re jacking up three pointers and making them at a relatively high percentage. And they’re fighting hard for 48 minutes; not a squad prone to taking possessions off on the offensive end. Here’s head coach Kenny Atkinson following a 110-108 loss at Milwaukee over the weekend, another game that flew Over the total by double digits: “I'm proud of our resiliency. I wish we would have shot a little bit better. Turnovers hurt us. We had a lot of open looks…” Both Chicago and Brooklyn are 2-1 to the Over in early season play, and both Unders came in games where each team shot poorly, not because they stepped it up on the defensive end. All three meetings last year went Over the total including an Over 213 cash the last time they faced. Expect another high scoring affair tonight, primed to fly Over the total with room to spare. Take the Over. |
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10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 48 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -104 | 73 h 55 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle – New Orleans OVER (#257-258) The Seahawks defense played a truly epic game last week. On a night where their offense wasn’t working at all, Seattle’s D was on the field for a whopping 90 plays – the equivalent of six full quarters – without allowing a touchdown. Pete Carroll, talking about his defense after the game: “It was incredible all night long. It starts right up front, they ran a million plays right in the freaking ‘A’ gap and they tried to stuff it at you and we just kept slugging it out. It was just an incredible display of who they are and what they’re all about.” Of course, that was last week. After the game, the exhausted defense had to fly home, practice all week, have another long flight to New Orleans and then play in an early start game. That early start game, by the way, comes against Drew Brees and the Saints offense, clicking on all cylinders. New Orleans has picked up the offensive pace this season, ranked #4 in the NFL in seconds per snap. Drew Brees is AVERAGING more than 350 passing yards per game, on pace to set the all-time NFL record. We saw Matt Ryan pick apart the Seahawks defense in Seattle two weeks ago, and there’s ample reason to think that Brees will find seams in the Seahawks zone on Sunday. Seattle managed only two field goals on offense in five quarters of football last Sunday. But there’s no comparison between the Cardinals defense and the Saints defense when it comes to defending the pass. ‘Zona has held opposing QB’s to a passer rating under 70 this year; #2 in the NFL. New Orleans has allowed opposing QB’s to notch a QB rating above 100 against them; once again a bottom five defense against the pass. To make matters even worse for New Orleans, they’re suffering a massive injury bug on the defensive side of the football. With CB Sterling Moore going down with an abdominal strain last week, joining defensive backs Erik Harris, PJ Williams and Delvin Breaux (back at practice but not likely to play this week), the Saints are anything BUT healthy in the secondary. Throw in injuries to nose tackle Nick Fairley and LB’s Dannell Ellerbee and Stephone Anthony and this bad defense looks even worse. The Saints just cannot be totaled in this range at home, in my opinion, regardless of the opponent. New Orleans three home games this year have finished with final scores of 41-38, 45-32 and 35-34; the LOSER getting into the 30’s each time, Dating back to last year, at home, the Saints closed out the season with 38-27, 35-27, 41-38, 34-28 and 52-49 final scores in their last five games at the Superdome in 2015. That’s eight straight home Overs for New Orleans, with each and every one of those games getting into the 60’s, an under-the radar betting trend worth riding again here. Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
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10-29-16 | Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 73 | 59-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Tulsa – Memphis OVER (#161-162) This one’s simple. Tulsa scores points in bunches against EVERYBODY, running former Baylor offensive coordinator Phil Montgomery’s uptempo, spread offense. They’ve hung 43+ five times in seven games. Ohio State did shut them down at the Horseshoe, but Memphis is not Ohio State OR in Columbus! QB Dane Evans and RB D’Angelo Brewer moved the ball up and down the field at Houston, coming a half yard short of a potential upset over a Top 10 team on the road. They hung 42 on Memphis last year and I would legitimately be surprised if the Hurricanes didn’t approach or exceed that number on Saturday. Or course, Memphis hung 66 on the Hurricanes last year and 40 on them the year before that. Yes, without Justin Fuente calling the shots and Paxton Lynch executing the gameplan, the Tigers offensive production has declined this year. But not as much the markets seem to think! Memphis has seen their scoring severely deflated in recent weeks, playing each of their last three games against slower paced and defensive minded foes. But the offense moved the ball at Ole Miss to the tune of 474 yards and 27 first downs against an SEC defense. In their last game on this field against an uptempo foe, they hung 77 on Bowling Green. Expect a torrid pace and bevy of touchdowns, not field goals in what should be a wildly entertaining Saturday Night affair. Take the Over. |
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10-29-16 | Grizzlies v. Knicks OVER 197.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Take New York – Memphis OVER (#507-508) This is NOT last year’s Memphis Grizzlies! New Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale: “It's not necessarily how fast we can shoot. It's just a tempo thing. Can we explore early options to get easy baskets? We want to take our chances with getting a quick easy one." Memphis took 24 three pointers in their opener as well; a team primed to stretch the floor and pound the paint, bad news for a Knicks squad that looked truly awful defensively on opening night at Cleveland. The Knicks shot terribly in that loss to the Cavs, hitting under 37% from the floor while committing 18 turnovers vs. 17 assists. ‘Melo didn’t crack 20; Courtney Lee didn’t score a point against the defending champs. The Grizz are a good notch or two down defensively from the Cavs, and I’m expecting a vastly superior offensive flow for the Knicks tonight, both in halfcourt sets and in transition after getting only nine fast break points in their opener. New head coach Jeff Hornacek, talking about their poor offensive execution: "It was just one of those games (where shots weren’t falling)." I’m not expecting a repeat tonight. Take the Over. |
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10-23-16 | Redskins v. Lions OVER 49 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Washington- Detroit OVER (#457-458) The Lions are 4-2 to the Over on the season. Their offense has come out of the gate clicking, with Matthew Stafford completing 69% of his passes with a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. Remember, when Jim Bob Cooter took over as Detroit’s offensive coordinator down the stretch last year, Stafford finished with a 19-2 TD-INT ratio and a QB rating of 110 in their last eight games. With Marvin Jones, Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin, Detroit isn’t short on downfield weapons in the post-Megatron era. Facing a Redskins defense that ranks below average against the pass and near the bottom of the NFL against the run, look for Detroit to continue their solid offensive rhythm in their third straight home game (55 points scored in the first two). But the Lions defense is every bit as vulnerable as their offense is potent; ranked #30 in the NFL in yards per play allowed – worse than the likes of Cleveland or New Orleans Detroit is playing without their best interior lineman, Haloti Ngata, and their best linebacker, DeAndre Levy, both out with injuries. The Rams mediocre (at best) offense picked Detroit apart last week. Washington’s offensive line is playing great. Kirk Cousins has only taken one sack in the last two weeks. Matt Jones and the ground game dominated Philly last week, pounding out 230 yards on the ground while rushing for a whopping 7.0 yards per carry. Washington has scored 27+ in each of their last three good weather games. The fast, indoor turf at Ford Field always provides a good weather game. Expect touchdowns in bunches from both squads here, just like the Lions game last week. Take the OVER. |
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10-16-16 | Browns v. Titans OVER 43.5 | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 95 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Tennessee OVER (#265-266) With Cody Kessler behind centerhe Cleveland Browns are a dead nuts OVER team, but the markets haven’t caught on yet. That gives us a very reasonable total to bet Over this week in a game that has legitimate ‘shootout’ potential. The Browns defense is simply awful, and they’re not likely to get any better. This team spent the offseason jettisoning veteran salaries in their latest rebuild. The Browns have allowed at least 25 points in every game, despite facing some pretty anemic offenses. They’re a bottom quartile defense, struggling in every aspect – against the run, against the pass and in the red zone. And those stats aren’t fully truthful because twice already teams have spent the entire second half just trying to run clock in games that were already blowouts. The Browns three competitive games have all flown Over the total with relative ease. Cody Kessler is a gunslinger, and the Browns have a handful of decent downfield weapons, most notably receivers Terrelle Pryor and Gary Barnidge, along with Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson out of the backfield. Unlike so many young QB’s, Kessler is not a ‘Checkdown Charlie’ – he’s taking downfield shots every week. Even against the Patriots last week, the rookie led an impressive early TD drive before getting hurt. He’s been upgraded to probable this week, and former starter Josh McCown has also been cleared to play. Hue Jackson’s creative playbook will have a decent QB to run it this week! The Titans have hung 50 points on the Texans and Dolphins over the past two weeks, with their unique power rushing game generating big gainers and red zone touchdowns. Against a bottom tier defense, I’m expecting the Tennessee offense to pound the rock between the tackles, wearing down Cleveland’s skimpy defensive front while opening things up for some downfield shots from Marcus Mariota. Last year’s meeting went Over the total. Their meeting the year before flew Over the total. And this game has all the makings of a high flying shootout, primed to cash our Over bet with room to spare. Take the OVER. |
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10-15-16 | Temple v. Central Florida OVER 52.5 | 26-25 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Central Florida – Temple OVER (#129-130) My clients and I have cashed a couple of winning bets in UCF games already, including an Over cash at Michigan and a UCF minus the points cash at Florida International. And while I’m marginally tempted to lay the points with Scott Frost’s Knights this week, the Over appears to be a superior wager. Here is Frost’s quote, heading into the season: “One of the things that drew me to the job is I knew I could run a version of our offense that was practically identical to Oregon's because we can recruit that type of player here. I don't think you could run Oregon's offense at Wisconsin; I don't know if you would get enough guys that can run well enough to do it. In Orlando, Florida, there's fast guys in high schools in every direction in close proximity that are already running systems in high school that are similar to this and should want to play in it.” UCF has not run their offense at a breakneck pace in either of their last two games. They were down to their third string QB at East Carolina, forcing a slowdown. And they were so far ahead of Florida International by halftime, they just grinded the clock late. Then last week, they had an unscheduled bye due to Hurricane Matthew. The markets are looking at UCF and saying ‘Their pace isn’t so fast, and they’re out of rhythm after last week’s impromptu bye.’ And that gives us the price point we need to strike on this Over! UCF is healthy at QB again, with top two QB’s Justin Holman and McKenzie Milton both back in practice all week. And their gameplan is clearly going to be ‘push the pace and test Temple deep’. UCF Offensive Coordinator Troy Walters: “They're a good run stopping defense and we have to make sure we're able to throw the ball and move the ball down the field.” More Walters, talking about his QB’s: “Justin came in and got healthy, and I think we're really close to having everybody up and ready to go." Senior receiver Taylor Oldham: “Every practice we prepare for a breakout game, but we can only do what's within our control and do what coach asks us to do. It'll come. I really feel that." Temple has cashed four Over bets in their last four games; a team still totaled like they were last year’s stodgy squad – all running and defense. That’s not the case in 2016! QB PJ Walker threw for more than 440 yards at Memphis last week; a career high for a seasoned senior starter. Their top three backs are averaging better than five yards per carry, but the Owls defense – particularly their secondary – is way down from last year. And with the markets moving this total down from the opener, we can expect this Under-the-Radar Owls run of Overs to continue for at least one more week. Take the OVER. |
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10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 45.5 | 17-14 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Carolina – Tampa Bay OVER (#475-476) This is a battle between two injury riddled defenses that simply can’t be trusted to get stops. The Bucs haven’t stopped anybody all year, allowing a whopping 32 points per game through the first four weeks of the season. That number would be even higher, but two of their last three games have been ugly blowout losses that were ‘run out the clock’ situations by the fourth quarter. Tampa’s defense isn’t primed to improve by leaps and bounds this evening, with cluster injuries on the defensive line. As of this writing on Monday morning, three starting defensive linemen -- Gerald McCoy, Clinton McDonald and Robert Ayers – are all listed as doubtful for tonight. Without their best pass rusher and their best run stuffer, the Panthers should be able to move the football with relative ease with veteran backup Derek Anderson behind center. It’s surely worth noting that Anderson’s last two starts BOTH came against Tampa back in 2014. He threw for more than 500 yards without an interception in those two games. Ron Rivera talking about why we can bet a backup quarterback OVER the total: “He’s a guy that’s had success in the NFL. He’s been a Pro Bowl player. He’s won a lot of games. He’s played in a lot of games. And I think our guys just have a lot of confidence in who he is.” The Panthers are 3-1 to the Over, and their two games NOT against elite stop units (Vikings and Broncos) have produced 73 and 81 combined points, with Carolina getting into the 30’s in both games. But the Panthers secondary cannot be trusted to get stops against any decent passing game, not with as many as three new starters in the secondary this week after the D got torched for 500 passing yards against Atlanta. This is anything BUT a quality group of cornerbacks, good news for Jameis Winston and the big play Bucs passing game. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings UNDER 43 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – NY Giants UNDER (#277-278) When the Falcons and Saints matched up last Monday Night it was a touchdown fest. Two defenses that haven’t gotten red zone stops all year didn’t get red zone stops again, combining to allow nine TD’s in twelve red zone opportunities. That’s not likely to happen again tonight in a game featuring two top tier defenses in what should be a hard hitting, low scoring field goal fest. The Giants red zone defense ranks #1 in the NFL, holding foes to a 25% TD rate through their first three games. Offseason defensive newcomers Damon Harrison, Janoris Jenkins and Oliver Vernon have all been impact players. Even with a couple of guys banged up in the Giants secondary, the Vikings aren’t primed to take advantage. Minnesota ranks #31 in the NFL in total offense, #32 in rushing and #32 in red zone touchdown percentage. They’ve scored three offensive touchdowns in three games. I don’t see the Vikings marching up and down the field, into the end zone repeatedly this evening. But the Vikings defense is no joke, arguably the top D in the NFL right now (apologies to Seattle, but this D is LOADED). They rank #2 in total defense and #2 in points allowed, completely shutting down Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton in the last two weeks while holding the Panthers and Packers to their lowest point totals of the year. The Giants rank #27 in red zone touchdown percentage – like Minnesota, they’ve struggled to punch the ball into the end zone. Barring a barrage of big plays, we can expect tonight’s game to be a relatively low scoring field goal fest, staying Under the total with room to spare. Take the Under. |
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10-02-16 | Lions v. Bears OVER 48 | 14-17 | Loss | -102 | 49 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Chicago – Detroit OVER (#261-262) The Lions are a dead nuts Over team right now. Their defense is riddled with key injuries, most notably their best LB, DeAndre Levy, and their best pass rusher, Ziggy Ansah, as well as starting safety Tavon Wilson. Green Bay scored on every first half possession against the Lions defense last week before going into ‘clock burning’ mode in the second half. In their first two games, the Lions pass defense got riddled, blowing fourth quarter leads each time. But this Lions offense is no joke. Matthew Stafford continues to play the best football of his career under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter’s tutelage. Stafford has averaged more than 300 yards per game through his first three contests, with a QB rating of 105. In the final eight games last year, with Cooter calling the plays, Stafford had a QB rating of 110.1. With Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron, Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin, Detroit isn’t missing Calvin Johnson very much; an explosive offense primed to put up points in bunches. I waited until Friday to release this Over because I wanted to be sure that I was betting on Brian Hoyer, not Jay Cutler. From all indications, Cutler is going to sit again this week. The Bears have faced three above average defenses thusfar, taking a step down in defensive class here. And Hoyer, once again, is proving that he’s a capable gunslinger coming off the bench; a guy with 31 TD passes in 2014 and 2015, coming off a 317 yard game with two TD’s at Dallas. Like Detroit, Chicago has plenty of downfield weapons – Alshon Jeffrey, Kevin White, Eddie Royal and Zack Miller all have at least 11 catches and at least 125 receiving yards. And, even more than Detroit, the Bears have suffered a devastating barrage of defensive injuries, with the likes of Kyle Fuller, Danny Trevathan and Lamarr Houston out long term, with multiple defensive backs going through concussion protocol, no sure thing to suit up on Sunday. Expect fireworks, just like the first meeting between these two teams last year, a wild 37-34 shootout. Take the OVER. |
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10-01-16 | Marshall v. Pittsburgh OVER 68 | 27-43 | Win | 100 | 77 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Marshall – Pittsburgh OVER (#113-114) I’m going to ride this Pitt Over trend for at least another week. Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up last week supporting the Panthers Over the total, their third consecutive game that got into the 70’s or higher. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “For a team with mediocre (at best) QB play who doesn’t run an uptempo system, the Panthers are about as strong an ‘Over’ team as you’ll find. Why? Two key reasons, both of which should come into play here. “First, the Panthers secondary is an absolute mess right now. Oklahoma State had ten plays of more than 20 yards last week, and third year QB starter Mason Rudolph set his career high in passing yards against them. The previous week, Pitt couldn’t hold a lead against Penn State, allowing soph QB Trace McSorley to light them up for 331 yards and 38 points in his first career road start. “Head coach Pat Narduzzi’s quote talking about his struggling young secondary doesn’t exactly reek of confidence: “They’ve got to understand and have to have faith and belief in what we’re doing. They’ve got to understand that it works when you do it right and it doesn’t work when you’re not doing it right. It’s either your way or our way; which one are you going to do? If you continue to do it your way, then we’re going to have problems. If you do it our way, you’ve got a chance.” “But Pitt has a fighting chance, even against good passing teams, because their run game is so unique, built to create big play chances out of the backfield. RB James Connor showed real burst last week, the former ACC Offensive Player of the Year in 2014. Speedster Quadree Henderson is a big play waiting to happen. Five different rushers have gained at least 20 yards on a single carry already.” Pitt should pick up yardage in chunks against an undersized Marshall front seven on defense that isn’t poised to stop big, physical ground games, and their red zone execution has been excellent. Marshall should have starting QB Chase Litton back on the field this week after missing the Louisville game with a concussion. Marshall’s two previous games against FBS competition have gotten into the 80’s, both flying Over with plenty of room to spare. Expect more of the same on Saturday. Take the Over. |
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10-01-16 | Minnesota v. Penn State OVER 55.5 | 26-29 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Penn State OVER (#119-120) We don’t think of Minnesota or Penn State as ‘Over’ teams. The Gophers have a run heavy plodding offense with a mediocre (at best) quarterback and a dearth of skill position speed. Penn State entered the season with 19 of the 24 games in the James Franklin era producing 50 points or less, anything BUT an Over team. They didn’t have a single posted total higher than 54 in either of those two seasons. That was then, this is now. The long term track record for both of these squads has this total artificially deflated. Penn State has gone uptempo this year under new offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead, hanging 34+ in every game not against Michigan’s defense. QB Trace McSorely is a better fit for this offense than the departed Christian Hackenburg, and RB Saquon Barkley is averaging just shy of five yards per carry. Minnesota’s defense isn’t loaded with quality depth or athleticism, and I’m expecting Penn State’s tempo to wear them down by the second half. But Penn State’s defense is a disaster area right now, most notably at linebacker. At practice on Tuesday, the Nittany Lions had a grand total of four healthy scholarship LB’s. Coach Franklin’s quote doesn’t exactly reek of confidence, especially with one of his healthy bodies at LB, Brandon Smith, suspended for the first half following a targeting penalty: "Our linebacker situation, I don't know if I've ever seen anything like it. We're just going to have to keep moving guys. Right now, we're going to have a hard time practicing with the number of guys that we have, so we may have to continue moving guys, different positions; I don't know if I've ever seen anything like this before. " The Gophers have an injury list an arm’s length long on the defensive side of the football, with all three units suffering significant injury or suspension concerns. This is no elite defense even when healthy, but the offense has hung 30+ in three straight weeks. No surprise here if the loser of this game gets four touchdowns or more. Take the Over. |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 53.5 | 45-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – New Orleans OVER (#489-490) The NFL totals marketplace has a ‘cap’ on the high side. There is a segment of syndicates that will auto-bet the highest NFL totals Under, refusing to accept totals that are higher than 52 or so. Of course, the long term database results show that auto-betting Unders in this total range is marginally profitable. But in 2016, in a game between two extremely potent offenses squaring off against two extremely suspect defenses, we can expect a shootout. In fact, I’m willing to bet on it! The numbers don’t lie. Based on Football Outsiders adjusted defensive rankings, the Saints have the #31 ranked defense in the NFL while the Falcons come in dead last, #32. We shouldn’t be shocked by either number. The Saints defense was one of the worst in NFL history last year, and they’ve already suffered a handful of key injuries here in 2016, particularly in their dismal secondary. For a team that hasn’t intercepted a pass yet while allowing 8.5 yards per attempt, injuries in the secondary can only be considered what they are – a complete disaster for a dismal stop unit. Atlanta’s defense has been even worse, as hard as that is to imagine. The Falcons don’t have a pass rush – their lone sack this was credited when Derek Carr stepped out of bounds on a rollout pass attempt. They’ve allowed seven TD passes already with only one interception, while allowing 4.6 yards per carry on the ground. Former Seahawks assistant Dan Quinn, like Gus Bradley in Jacksonville, has found that it’s hard to replicate the defensive success in Seattle without comparable personnel. Matt Ryan is off to the best start of his career, with a 121.4 QB rating through his first two games. Drew Brees guided the Saints to 34 points in a loss in their lone previous game on this field this year. In fact, dating back to last year, the last six games on the fast turf of the Superdome have all produced 58 points or more: 52-49, 34-24, 41-38, 35-27, 38-27 and 35-34 final scores. The only question here is ‘touchdowns or field goals’? I’m willing to bet ‘touchdowns’. Take the Over. |
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09-24-16 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina OVER 67.5 | 36-37 | Win | 100 | 73 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – North Carolina OVER (#345-346) For a team with mediocre (at best) QB play who doesn’t run an uptempo system, the Panthers are about as strong an ‘Over’ team as you’ll find. Why? Two key reasons, both of which should come into play from start to finish against North Carolina. First, the Panthers secondary is an absolute mess right now, Oklahoma State had ten plays of more than 20 yards last week, and third year QB starter Mason Rudolph set his career high in passing yards against them. The previous week, Pitt couldn’t hold a lead against Penn State, allowing soph QB Trace McSorley to light them up for 331 yards and 38 points in his first career road start. Both Penn State and Oklahoma State play with pace…but neither squad plays as fast as Larry Fedora’s Tar Heels. Head coach Pat Narduzzi’s quote talking about his struggling young secondary doesn’t exactly reek of confidence: “They’ve got to understand and have to have faith and belief in what we’re doing. They’ve got to understand that it works when you do it right and it doesn’t work when you’re not doing it right. It’s either your way or our way; which one are you going to do? If you continue to do it your way, then we’re going to have problems. If you do it our way, you’ve got a chance.” But Pitt has a fighting chance, even against good passing teams, because their run game is so unique, built to create big play chances out of the backfield. RB James Connor showed real burst last week, the former ACC Offensive Player of the Year in 2014. Speedster Quadree Henderson is a big play waiting to happen. Five different rushers have gained at least 20 yards on a single carry already, and the Tar Heels aren’t exactly known for stuffing the run in recent seasons. North Carolina can score points in bunches, and after a slow start against Georgia, QB Mitch Trubisky has led the team to 48 and 56 points in their last two ballgames, picking up right where they left off last year – an offense that averaged more than 40 points per game. But with the markets not truly viewing Pitt as an ‘Over’ team (yet), we’re getting a relatively low total in a game with ‘shootout’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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09-24-16 | East Carolina v. Virginia Tech OVER 56 | 17-54 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech – East Carolina OVER (#319-320) Virginia Tech hasn’t played much ‘pace’ yet in Justin Fuente’s first year on the job. Expect the Hokies to start picking up the tempo in a real way this week; a double revenge spot against East Carolina. QB Jerod Evans, coming off a five TD effort in the Hokies 49-0 whitewash of Boston College last Saturday: “There’s definitely another gear to this offense. We were trying to figure out where we was at, make sure we’re executing right, so I kind of slowed down myself to make sure I was executing and doing my job right. But, yeah, it definitely has another gear.” And we should definitely note the red zone execution against a solid defensive foe for a team that scored seven touchdowns without kicking a field goal. Virginia Tech has been practicing at Fuente’s preferred no-huddle pace. WR Coach Holmon Wiggins, who came with Fuente from Memphis: “We want those guys to go out there and play as fast as they can within the parameters of what we’re trying to do. We can spit the call out fast or we can kind of hold it.” East Carolina’s defense isn’t built to handle speed (or size, or anything else for that matter). The Pirates can win shootouts, but they’re not going to win many defensive struggles. The only good offense they faced – NC State – gained more than 200 yards on the ground AND through the air against East Carolina, and could have scored far more than the 30 points that they did. East Carolina is coming off a frustrating loss at South Carolina, a game in which they gained over 500 yards – 200 more than the Gamecocks -- but scored only 15 points. Minnesota transfer QB Philip Nelson threw for 400 yards against a solid SEC defense, one week after marching the team up and down the field in the upset over NC State. Scottie Montgomery ‘s squad has superior skill position talent to what Virginia Tech faced last week, and East Carolina has repeatedly shown us that they can hang points on solid defenses in every recent season. Last year’s game got into the 60’s and this year’s game should be played at a much faster pace! Take the Over. |
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09-18-16 | Jaguars v. Chargers OVER 47 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 38 m | Show | |
Take San Diego – Jacksonville OVER (#285-286) My clients and I cashed a winner with the Chargers Over last week. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “Ken Whisenhunt is back as the Chargers offensive coordinator. The last time he was in this job designing plays for Philip Rivers was in 2013; a year where San Diego’s offense was dynamic and the Chargers made the playoffs. This team was an injury riddled disaster last year, but right now they’ve got a healthy Keenan Allen at WR, a healthy Melvin Gordon at RB, a healthy Antonio Gates at TE and newly acquired WR Travis Benjamin primed to make Whisenhunt and Rivers look good. The Chargers are primed to put up points this year – period.” San Diego lost Keenan Allen to a season ending injury against KC. But they ran the ball effectively all day. Philip Rivers found Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin and the ageless Antonio Gates downfield, even without Allen. Their conservative play calling with a big lead eventually doomed them when their defense collapsed. I would definitely expect a ‘go-for-the-jugular’ mentality if the Chargers take a first half lead this week, not a ‘sit-on-it’ mentality like last week. The Jaguars are every bit the ‘Over’ team that San Diego is. This offense is loaded with weapons, whether we’re talking about Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas, Marquise Lee or TJ Yeldon; all young, talented playmakers. RB Chris Ivory is expected to be available this week as well. But the Jags defense has continued to underachieve throughout the Gus Bradley era, made worse by injuries to cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Prince Amukamara. These teams met last November; a 31-25 shootout. They met in 20014 as well, and San Diego hung 33 on the Jags in another game that cashed Over bets. Expect more of the same here in 2016. Take the Over. |
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09-12-16 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Texas – Houston OVER (#925-926) There’s a method to my madness when it comes to riding totals streaks – particularly Over streaks – throughout the course of the MLB season. When a team is streaking Over, there’s ample fodder to expect that trend to continue. Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s BOTH of these teams right now – two hot lineups and two dicey bullpens, unable to quench many late inning fires. The results don’t lie. These two teams played three games last weekend, producing 13 runs or more all three times. Texas is 11-2 to the Over in their last 13 ballgames. Their lineup is on fire, pounding out 90 runs in that 13 game stretch. Their overused bullpen is a disaster right now, a big part of the reason why they’ve allowed five runs or more six times in their last eight ballgames. Houston, too, is trending Over, despite a rough weekend offensively against the Cubs strong pitching staff; averaging just shy of six runs per game in the seven contests prior to the Chicago series. Neither starter is a likely candidate to throw a gem this evening. Houston’s Doug Fister has a terrible track record against Texas. Current Rangers are hitting .314 and slugging .500 against Fister in more than 200 career at bats against him. Fister’s last three starts have been awful, allowing 18 runs while failing to get out of the fifth inning in any of those games. Texas scored eight runs in 3.1 innings against him last weekend. Texas’s Martin Perez has allowed current Astros to hit .310 against him in more than 110 career at bats. Perez, too, is struggling, allowing four runs or more three times in his last four trips to the hill. The Astros battered him for five runs on his last visit to Minute Maid Park. Put it all together and we can expect another high scoring affair between these two potent lineups. Take the Over. |
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09-11-16 | Chargers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Kansas City – San Diego OVER (#463-464) Three keys here. First, Ken Whisenhunt is back as the Chargers offensive coordinator. The last time he was in this job designing plays for Philip Rivers was in 2013; a year where San Diego’s offense was dynamic and the Chargers made the playoffs. This team was an injury riddled disaster last year, but right now they’ve got a healthy Keenan Allen at WR, a healthy Melvin Gordon at RB, a healthy Antonio Gates at TE and newly acquired WR Travis Benjamin primed to make Whisenhunt and Rivers look good. The Chargers are primed to put up points this year – period. San Diego got swept by the Chiefs last year; losing 33-3 and 10-3. In their finale in 2014, they lost 19-7 to the Chiefs. That’s three straight matchups against a divisional rival in which the Chargers (VERY banged up on offense in all three of those games) scored a TD or less. Head coach Mike McCoy is an offensive guy, and he’s on the hot seat. If ever there was a motivated team and coaching staff to generate a strong offensive showing in Week 1, this is that team and staff. The Chargers braintrust spent the entire offseason thinking of ways to beat this defense, and they’ve got the talent to do it, especially with KC’s stud pass rusher Justin Houston out. But this Chiefs offense continues to be disrespected by the betting markets. Alex Smith is an underrated dual threat QB coming off an A+ season. Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce are downfield playmakers, they’ve got loads of RB depth and the injuries that plagued their offensive line to open the season last year haven’t been a problem in 2016. KC averaged 25 points per game last year, ranked #9 in the NFL, and there’s no reason to expect any sort of significant drop-off, especially with the Chargers likely to be without #1 draft choice pass rusher Joey Bosa. Each of the last four meetings between these two teams has stayed Under the total. Big deal! Each of the previous four meetings flew Over the total, so it’s not like Reid and McCoy can only line up in defensive struggles. KC opened the season with four straight Overs last year; the Chargers came out of the gate with a wild 33-28 shootout against the Lions. Loser here gets into the 20’s….. Take the OVER. |
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09-10-16 | Central Florida v. Michigan OVER 52.5 | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Central Florida OVER (#313-314) New UCF Coach Scott Frost has made it very clear what he wants to install for the Golden Knights. The former Oregon Ducks offensive coordinator wants Central Florida to become “The Oregon of the East”, looking to get his squad playing at a frenetic tempo right from the get-go. Here’s Frost’s quote: “One of the things that drew me to the job is I knew I could run a version of our offense that was practically identical to Oregon's because we can recruit that type of player here. I don't think you could run Oregon's offense at Wisconsin; I don't know if you would get enough guys that can run well enough to do it. In Orlando, Florida, there's fast guys in high schools in every direction in close proximity that are already running systems in high school that are similar to this and should want to play in it.” UCF ran 91 plays in their opener against South Carolina State, accomplishing what Frost was hoping to accomplish in terms of pace. Against Michigan’s defense, UCF isn’t likely to break the scoreboard, but the key here is their tempo – fast! I don’t expect the Knights to get shut out here, especially after Michigan pulls their starters in the second half. But I do expect UCF to have more than their fair share of 3-and-outs, leading to a very tired defense trying to stop a Wolverines offense that hung seven touchdowns (no field goals!) against Hawaii last week right here at the Big House, scoring those seven TD’s on seven consecutive drives following an interception on their first play from scrimmage. Michigan is live to score a TD every time they have the ball against a defense of this caliber, and a defense that scored two TD’s last week is more than capable of another big play TD (or two) this week. The Wolverines offense scored seven TD’s on nine possessions last week. The only two possessions where they didn’t score where the one play opening drive (interception) and the final drive where they just ran out the clock. This week, they could easily have 13, 14 or 15 possessions thanks to UCF’s fast pace. Expect fireworks! Take the OVER. |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68 | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Louisville – Syracuse OVER (#303-304) Last week, Louisville starting quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for 286 yards and six touchdowns. He ran for 19 yards and two touchdowns. And he did it all in the FIRST HALF against Charlotte. Before we say ‘no big deal, that was Charlotte’, let’s not forget what Jackson did in the game before that; running and passing for more than 200 yards each, scoring two TD’s on the ground and throwing two TD passes as well in their bowl win over Texas A&M. When Louisville faced Syracuse last year, the Cardinals team speed simply overwhelmed the Orange in a 41-17 victory, gaining 579 yards of offense in the process. It’s surely worth noting that Lamar Jackson didn’t play in that game – Bobby Petrino went with his backup QB. It’s also worth noting that Syracuse isn’t going to be held to 17 or less on a regular basis this year – not in Dino Babers offense! Last week, Syracuse ran 81 offensive plays, gaining 554 yards while hanging 33 on Colgate. Babers – a former Art Briles assistant at Baylor and the architect of the Bowling Green offense that averaged 42 points per game last year – was not pleased. His quote stands out like a sore thumb for totals bettors: “That will be the slowest game you ever see us play. Did you see the paint drying? I did. We will never be that slow again.” More Babers: “We have a dome. The snow doesn’t matter. The rain doesn’t matter. The wind doesn’t matter. I can guarantee them that every single college football game at home, they’ll play in perfect weather.” In a national TV game that legitimately matters for Babers’ future recruiting efforts, expect a breakneck pace from both squads on Friday Night, leading to wildly entertaining, high scoring shootout. Take the OVER. |
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09-08-16 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Seattle – Texas OVER (#913-914) There’s a method to my madness when it comes to riding totals streaks – particularly Over streaks – throughout the course of the MLB season. When a team is streaking Over, there’s ample fodder to expect that trend to continue. Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s BOTH of these teams right now – two hot lineups and two miserable bullpens, unable to quench any late inning fires. The results don’t lie. Texas is 9-0 to the Over in their last nine ballgames. Their lineup is on fire, pounding out 75 runs in that nine game stretch. Their bullpen is a disaster right now, a big part of the reason why they’ve allowed 29 runs to the Mariners in the first three games of this series. Seattle is 8-1 to the Over in their last nine contests. Their ineffective bullpen has been throwing gas on fires consistently – opponents have scored seven runs or more seven times in that nine game stretch. But their lineup has pounded out 45 runs on the first six games of this homestand, clicking on all cylinders. Neither starter is a likely candidate to throw a gem this evening. Derek Holland has a 5.70 EA on the road (in sharp contrast to his 3.32 at the Ballpark in Arlington), and he gave up three dingers in five innings of an ugly showing here at Safeco on his last visit. Taijuan Walker has a terrible track record against Texas . Current Rangers are hitting .337 against him in more than 100 career at bats. He gave up six runs in five innings in his last game against the Rangers. Walker was sent down to AAA in June, but he hasn’t been much better since his return, with a post-All Star break ERA of 9.17. Walker couldn’t make it out of the first inning last time out, not a positive sign moving forward. These two teams are 8-1 to the Over in the last nine meetings since June, a trend worth riding again tonight. Take the Over. |
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09-07-16 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Kansas City OVER (#975-976) I’m going to keep cutting and pasting excerpts from the same basic write-up that I’ve been using throughout this run of Twins Overs, a consistent moneymaker for myself and my clients. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! My clients and I have been riding the Twins Over train and there’s absolutely no reason to jump off! The Twins bats are hot right now, pounding out 50 runs over their last eight games while scoring four or more 12 times in their last 14 contests. This certainly isn’t new or different for Minnesota, by far the #1 Over team in baseball this year. The results don’t lie. 139 games into the season, the Twins have cashed a grand total of 45 Under bets. They’re 13-2 to the Over in their last 15 games.” “Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s the Twins right now – a hot lineup and a miserable bullpen, unable to quench any late inning fires.” “The Royals bats are almost as hot as the Twins bats right now, pounding out four runs or more eleven times in their last twelve games while averaging six runs per game during that span following last night’s 10 run outburst. KC, too, is trending Over; 9-1-1- to the Over in their last eleven ballgames. And the ball has been flying out of Target Field all week. After another five home run game last night, we’ve seen a whopping 23 home runs in the first six games of this homestand, with every one of those games producing 13 runs or more.” Royals starter Danny Duffy has been hit hard in each of his last two starts, showing signs of wearing down following an impressive run over the summer. Twins starter Kyle Gibson just got bombed for six runs in five innings against KC on this field last month, and his ERA is above 7.00 since the beginning of August. Minnesota’s bullpen behind him handed us an Over cash last night, live to do it again tonight should we need it. Take the Over. |
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09-06-16 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9 | 10-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Kansas City OVER (#923-924) If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! My clients and I have been riding the Twins Over train and there’s absolutely no reason to jump off! Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect the results of Monday’s game: “The Twins bats are hot right now, pounding out 47 runs over their last seven games while scoring four or more 12 times in their last 13 contests. This certainly isn’t new or different for Minnesota, by far the #1 Over team in baseball this year. The results don’t lie. 138 games into the season, the Twins have cashed a grand total of 45 Under bets. They’re 12-2 to the Over in their last 14 games.” “Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s the Twins right now – a red hot lineup and a miserable bullpen, unable to quench any late inning fires.” The Royals bats are almost as hot as the Twins bats right now, pounding out four runs or more ten times in their last eleven games while averaging just shy of six runs per game during that span following last night’s 11 run outburst. KC, too, is trending Over; 8-1-1- to the Over in their last ten ballgames. And the ball has been flying out of Target Field, with a whopping 23 home runs in the first five games of this homestand, with every one of those games producing 13 runs or more. Both bullpens are worn down, with KC’s pen showing legitimate signs of decline and Minnesota’s pen ranking among the worst in baseball. KC starter Dillon Gee came out of the bullpen over the weekend – affecting his normal prep routine – and he was blasted for 11 hits and five earned runs in his last visit to Target Field. Twins starter Erwin Santana has been hit hard in each of his last two starts and he was bombed for six earned runs on nine hits in just 3.1 innings of work in his lone previous start against KC on this field this year. Expect more offensive fireworks tonight! Take the Over. |
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09-05-16 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 11-5 | Win | 102 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Kansas City OVER (#969-970) My clients and I have been riding the Twins Over train and there’s absolutely no reason to jump off! Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting the Over in a 13-11 Slugfest that cashed our winning bet by the fourth inning. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect the results of Sunday’s game: “The Twins bats are hot right now, pounding out 42 runs over their last six games while scoring four or more 11 times in their last dozen contests. This certainly isn’t new or different for Minnesota, by far the #1 Over team in baseball this year. The results don’t lie. 137 games into the season, the Twins have cashed a grand total of 45 Under bets. They’re 11-2 to the Over in their last 13 games.” Overs legitimately create more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Tired, ineffective bullpens are more likely to struggle when they get overused. And that’s the Twins right now – a red hot lineup and a miserable bullpen, unable to quench any late inning fires. An exhausted bullpen is particularly bad news with Jose Berrios on the hill. He’s been called up and sent back down to AAA twice previously; notching only one quality start in nine tries and throwing only 1.1 innings of work after the fifth inning for those nine starts combined. The Royals lineup bashed him pretty good less than three weeks ago, so Berrios won’t even have the ‘first look at a young hurler’ advantage. The Royals bats are almost as hot as the Twins bats right now, pounding out four runs or more nine times in their last ten games while averaging 5.6 runs per game during that span. But KC’s normally elite bullpen is showing signs of wear and tear. Joakim Soria blew the lead on Sunday after Peter Moylan and Wade Davis cost them the game on Friday. Starter Ian Kennedy has shown significant signs of regression in his last two starts after a surprisingly strong run immediately following the All Star Break. When Kennedy last travelled to Target Field in May, he got hit hard; primed for similar results in afternoon action on Labor Day. Take the Over. |
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09-04-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 10.5 | 13-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Chicago White Sox OVER (#919-920) The first three games of this series have all flown Over the total with room to spare; each game producing at least 13 runs. This certainly isn’t new or different for the Minnesota Twins, by far the #1 Over team in baseball this year. The results don’t lie. 136 games into the season, the Twins have cashed a grand total of 45 Under bets. They’re 10-2 to the Over in their last dozen games. And these divisional battles between Chicago and Minnesota have done nothing but cash Over tickets: five straight Overs and seven Overs in their last eight meetings. Expect another high scoring affair on Sunday. Neither starter is trustworthy. Andrew Albers lasted only two innings in his MLB starting debut last week; blasted by the Indians. And the White Sox have been bashing lefties, averaging nearly a full run per game more against opposing southpaw starters. Anthony Ranaudo has a 7.29 ERA in four starts with the White Sox while going 4-0 to the Over, allowing six home runs in just 21 innings of work. Good organizations – Boston and Texas – have given up on him over the past two seasons. Both bullpens are a mess following this series of Slugfests. Both lineups are in excellent current form, combining for 42 runs in the first three games of this series. Put it all together and we can expect another wild one at Target Field this afternoon, primed to fly Over the total with relative ease. Take the Over. |
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09-02-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 11-4 | Win | 106 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Chicago White Sox OVER (#921-922) Chicago’s Carlos Rodon had a strong August; throwing five quality starts in five tries. But Rodon has been throwing a ton of pitches: 100+ in all five August outings, a heavy workload for a hurler who is already approaching his innings count from last year. And Rodon has not fared well against this hot Minnesota lineup. In his last two starts against Minnesota, he was hit hard both times, allowing nine earned runs (including four homers) in just 12 innings of work. The Twins bats are hot right now, pounding out 16 runs over their last three games while scoring four or more eight times in their last nine contests (7-2 to the Over during that span). That is neither new nor different for the #1 Over team in all of baseball this year, cashing only 45 Under bets in their first 134 games. It’s surely worth noting that the Twins average more than a half run game more against opposing southpaws than they do against righties. And the White Sox bullpen behind Rodon is mediocre on a good day, more than capable of a late inning meltdown should we need it. Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson has been an Over machine of late, cashing Over tickets in each of his last six starts since the beginning of August, with a 6.62 ERA and a dismal 19-17 strikeout to walk ratio during that span. And behind Gibson, the Twins dismal bullpen is a big part of the reason why they’re the #1 Over team in baseball this year. If we don’t see runs in bunches early here, expect plenty of offense late! Take the Over. |
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08-30-16 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Minnesota OVER (#971-972) The Twins pitching has gone from bad to worse in recent weeks, as injuries and ineffectiveness have decimated their starters and their bullpen. The results don’t lie. Minnesota has allowed at least eight runs six times in their last seven games, cashing Over bets in all six of those games. They haven’t had a day off during that span. Their bullpen cost them another game last night, now ranked #14 out of 15 AL teams in bullpen ERA. That makes Andrew Albers a clear ‘go-against’ hurler tonight. The 30 year old made ten starts with Minnesota in 2013, but he didn’t stick in the big leagues. The Twins gave up on him, the Blue Jays gave up on him, and he’s been putting up mediocre numbers at AAA all year. I don’t trust him the first time through the batting order – ‘nasty stuff’ and ‘Andrew Albers’ aren’t used in the same sentence very often. And when it comes to the second or third time through the order, it could get ugly against an Indians team that can hit lefties just fine. Cleveland should have ample opportunity to feast against the same Twins bullpen that everybody else has been feasting on in recent weeks. Minnesota is hitting, pounding out 21 runs in three games at Toronto (at least six in every game) prior to the start of this series in Cleveland. They’ve already pounded struggling Indians starter Josh Tomlin twice in three tries this year, hitting five home runs in those three ballgames. ‘Struggling’ isn’t a strong enough adjective to describe Tomlin’s current woes – he’s been nothing short of awful: 0-5 with a 10.80 ERA in five previous August starts; allowing a whopping nine home runs in just 25 innings of work. And like Minnesota’s bullpen, the Indians bullpen is anything but fresh after last night’s extra inning affair, on the heels of short stints from Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar over the weekend. Expect some real offensive fireworks tonight! Take the Over |
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08-27-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Take LA Dodgers – Chicago Cubs OVER (#903-904) The Cubs are swinging hot bats right now, pounding out five runs or more in four straight contests. Most importantly, they haven’t been completely shut down in weeks, scoring four runs or more in 15 straight games. Chicago rallied from behind in the latter stages last night, and this is a quote I love to see when betting Overs, from red hot slugger Kris Bryant: "We never give up. We always believe we can win in the final innings." The Dodgers are swinging some hot bats too, with 68 runs scored over their last dozen games; more than 5.5 runs per contest. No surprise, then, that LA has only cashed three Under bets in those twelve games. Chicago, too, is trending Over, cashing only two Under bets in their last eight contest; an emerging trend worth riding again today. Neither bullpen is fresh off last night’s extra inning affair. And both starting pitchers have shown some vulnerability, particularly against the type of lineups they’ll face today. Cubs starter Jason Hammel is 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA at Wrigley, but he has given up ten runs twice in his last three road starts, including his last outing at Colorado. Current Dodgers including Howie Kendrick, Justin Turner and Chase Utley all have good track records against him. The Cubs have been pounding lefties like LA’s Julio Urias, averaging just shy of 5.5 runs per game against opposing southpaws. Urias won’t eat up innings – he’s lasted six full innings only twice in his 11 previous big league starts. This will be the Cubs second look at him and they fared pretty well the first time: eight hits (including three dingers) and six runs in five innings of work. We don’t need real offensive fireworks to get up and over 7.5 runs today, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if we get them. Take the Over. |
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08-25-16 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco – LA Dodgers OVER (#907-908) The book on the Dodgers is that they can’t hit lefties, and their season long numbers do show a negative bias towards southpaws. That’s a part of the Under money that showed this morning – we’ve seen Under $$ when LA faces lefties on a fairly regular basis. But the Dodgers just smacked around lefty Madison Bumgarner in a 9-5 blowout to open this series. They smacked around tonight’s southpaw starter Matt Moore when they faced him back in May with the Rays – seven earned runs in 4.1 innings of work. And they’re swinging hot bats right now, despite last night’s pitcher’s duel; pounding out 21 runs in their last four at home and just shy of six runs per game over their last dozen contests. Moore has struggled with his command since joining the slumping Giants, issuing 17 walks in just 23 innings of work over four starts. San Fran’s bullpen behind him has fallen out of the top half of MLB in ERA, badly overworked since the All Star Break. Ross Stripling was pulled after 7.1 innings of no-hit ball against the Giants in his MLB debut back in April. I’m willing to bet he can’t do it again, or even come close. Stripling is no emerging ace and no innings eater, just a warm body for an injury riddled rotation, with only two quality starts in ten tries since that impressive debut. The Giants are expected to sit Denard Span and Joe Panik tonight, but they’ve finally been hitting of late; pounding out five runs or more five times in their last seven games. No surprise, then, that these two teams have only cashed four Under bets in their last ten games each (with two of them coming last night). That’s an Over trend for both squads, worth riding tonight. Take the Over. |
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08-10-16 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – San Diego OVER (#955-956) We’ve got a pair of ‘bet-against’ starters, two suspect bullpens behind them and two hot hitting lineups facing off against those pitchers. On a warm, humid night in Pittsburgh, we should expect another high scoring Slugfest, primed to fly Over the total with relative ease. The Pirates are 63-46 to the Over this year – only the Twins have cashed more Over bets than Pittsburgh has. They are 6-2 to the Over in their last eight at home, averaging more than five runs per game during that span. And I certainly don’t trust tired retread Edwin Jackson to shut them down tonight. Jackson is coming off a 108 pitch effort in his last outing, by far his longest stint of the season. In four starts since joining San Diego, Jackson has only 13 strikeouts compared to 10 walks, and he’s not getting many ground ball outs. It’s surely worth noting that all four of his previous starts with the Padres have come at very pitcher friendly parks; not the case at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. San Diego’s bullpen behind him isn’t fresh – none of their last three starters have lasted past the fifth inning. San Diego has been an Over machine of late, cashing five straight Over bets while pounding out just shy of seven runs per game during that span. That’s bad news for Ryan Vogelsong, making his second start after an extended stint on the DL following a line drive to his face back in May. Vogelsong isn’t likely to eat up innings at this stage of his career, and the Padres lineup he’ll face tonight is a heck of a lot more potent than the Braves lineup he faced last time out. At 39 years old, Vogelsong is a long way removed from his ‘ace’ level seasons in 2011 and 2012; an easy pitcher to fade here. And the Pirates bullpen behind him is in decline following their salary dump at the trading deadline. Take the Over. |
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08-09-16 | Angels v. Cubs OVER 9 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Chicago Cubs – LA Angels OVER (#929-930) I’ve cashed a handful bets fading Jared Weaver on the highway this season. Tonight’s game in Chicago is another prime opportunity to cash in betting against him. The results don’t lie. Since the start of the 2013 campaign, Weaver has an ERA under 3.00 in Anaheim, taking advantage of the pitcher friendly conditions at Angels Stadium. His ERA on the highway during that same span is above 5.00. The difference? The long fly ball outs in Anaheim (only 32 homers allowed since 2013) turn into actual home runs in more hitter friendly venues (59 dingers allowed on the highway during that same span). Weaver has no strikeout pitch at this stage of the season, notching only five K’s in his last four outings combined. Since the start of July he’s gotten 74 fly ball outs compared to only 26 on the ground, a dismal ratio for any hurler pitching at Wrigley Field against the hot Cubs lineup that has finally woken up post-break. LA’s bullpen behind Weaver is mediocre on a good day, not a ‘slam the door shut’ kind of pen, offering us the opportunity to cash this ticket late if we don’t get there early. John Lackey was nothing short of brilliant in May and June, at one point going through a stretch of ten consecutive quality starts. Since that time, his season long ERA has risen by a full run; a 37 year old veteran who has clearly been wearing down over the hot summer months. Lackey’s strikeout rate is down, his home run rate is up and his track record against current Angels is not a good one. LA’s bats are in solid form, scoring four or more five times in their last six games; cashing an Over ticket in all five of those contests. Expect another relatively high scoring affair in Chicago tonight! Take the Over. |
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08-08-16 | Giants v. Marlins OVER 6.5 | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Miami – San Francisco OVER (#951-952) At first glance, you’re not going to see much that points towards an Over here; not with two aces on the hill and a cold Giants lineup behind one of those aces. That’s the beauty of baseball betting - -many times, the factors that put this bettor squarely on a side or total are hidden just below the surface; plays that don’t stand out as being ‘obvious’. There are ample reasons to expect the Marlins and Giants to combine to reach seven runs or more this evening, enough to cash our Over bet. Jose Fernandez has truly epic numbers at home in his career: 26-2 with a 1.62 ERA including a 9-2/2.11 in twelve home starts this season. But Fernandez threw only 126.1 innings of work over the past two seasons combined. This year, he’s already up to 131.2. And we’ve seen clear signs of fatigue lately. Fernandez’s last home start was his worst of the season. His ERA since July 1st is nearly twice his full season average, showing vulnerability to the home run ball, something that wasn’t the case for the first three months of the campaign. Behind Fernandez, the Marlins bullpen is spent after a wild weekend series in Colorado. The Giants were shut out in DC yesterday, continuing a recent trend of anemic offensive efforts. That being said, in the game following every previous Giants shutout loss since the end of April, San Fran has scored at least five runs, and those games have flown Over the total, averaging nearly 16 runs per contest! They scored seven on Saturday, beating up another dominant ace at home, Stephen Strasburg. And the Giants lineup has hit Fernandez well with a .343 career average against him, smacking him pretty hard in a 7-2 win over Miami earlier this year (cashing the Over) and a 5-4 loss to the Marlins last year (also cashing Over bets) In fact, all three previous meetings between these two teams this year have produced nine runs or more – three Over cashes. Their three game set on this field last year produced eight runs or more in all three games, also cashing Overs in all three contests. Miami is really hitting well right now – 16 runs over the last two games in Colorado, and 37 runs scored in their last five home games, flying Over the total each time. The Giants bullpen behind Johnny Cueto has declined in recent weeks, bad news considering that Cueto is suffering some real fatigue issues; just like Fernandez. Cueto has thrown 110+ pitches four times in six starts since July 1st. He turned a gem into a loss last time out after Bruce Bochy sent him back out for the eighth inning; a big mistake, not just for that game, but moving forward. It’s surely worth noting that despite Cueto’s stellar full season numbers, he’s only thrown two quality starts in his last seven trips to the hill. We don’t need real offensive fireworks to get this game Over 6.5, but I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if we get them……Take the Over. |
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07-28-16 | Red Sox v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Boston – LA Angels OVER (#913-914) My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against Jared Weaver in his last start, Weaver remains a ‘fade’ here against the Red Sox potent lineup. But with David Price’s continued struggles and LA swinging hot bats right now, my ‘fade’ of Weaver tonight is an Over recommendation, not a side play. Let me start with Price, who has been hammered in both starts since the All Star Break, allowing eight runs on 22 hits while striking out only five batters; facing to finish the sixth inning both times. Those starts came against the Yankees and Twins, not exactly the two most potent lineups in baseball. He’s been hit every bit as hard on the highway as he’s been at Fenway – Price’s last quality start on the road came back in the first week of June! Boston’s bullpen behind him has been spotty at best throughout the summer months, ranked outside the top half of MLB bullpens in ERA. The Angels have come out of the break clicking on all cylinders offensively, pounding out five runs or more eight times in twelve games. Albert Pujols has finally woken up from his dormant status; Mike Trout is as dangerous as any hitter in the league; Yunel Escobar has six hits in the last two games, and Andrelton Simmons has back-2-back multi-hit games as well. LA is a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. So is Boston! The Red Sox have scored eight runs or more five times in their last eight contests; another team that is swinging hot bats right now. That’s bad news for Jared Weaver, who has shown extreme vulnerability to the gopher ball, allowing 23 home runs already this season, including two more in his last start at Houston. Weaver used to pitch better in the spacious confines of Angels Stadium, but not this year – he’s got a 5.59 home ERA and .300 batting average against compared to 5.03 and .290 on the road. It’s hot in Southern California right now, conditions in which the ball tends to carry a good notch or two better than it does on cooler nights. When these two teams met in Boston at the beginning of the month, we saw 47 runs scored in the three game set. No surprise here if we see similar offensive outbursts this evening in a game that has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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07-18-16 | Padres v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Take San Diego – St Louis OVER (#907-908) MLB Totals went 30-13-2 to the Under in the first weekend following the All Star Break. That’s not surprising – pitchers tend to have the edge over hitters following a few days off. But that edge doesn’t last long – after three games, we can expect hitters to find their rhythm. And frankly, these two lineups have come out of the break swinging the bats well, making the Over a clear choice in a matchup of two mediocre (at best) starting pitchers with suspect bullpens behind them. Padres manager Andy Green following their weekend sweep over the first place Giants: “I think we've grown. You watch Wil (Myers) work a walk against Cueto and celebrate it like he hit a home run. He made a great pitcher work and we weren't necessarily doing that earlier in the year." The Padres scored four or more runs in all three games against San Fran and eight of their last ten games overall. And the Padres have been trending Over for weeks, 16-9 to the Over in their last 25 ballgames. Don’t expect Mike Leake or the surprisingly mediocre Cardinals pen to slow down San Diego’s offense tonight. The Padres bullpen is even worse than the Cardinals pen, and starter Christian Friedrich hasn’t recorded an out after the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. Since mid-June, Friedrich has seen his ERA rise from 2.12 to 4.50, allowing at least one home run in every outing while struggling with walks. That’s a bad combo against St Louis, who scored 11 runs in two games after the break before taking a loss yesterday. It’s surely worth noting this quote from Sunday’s game in which the Cardinals struck out a season high 15 times. Outfielder Tommy Pham: “The strike zone was horrible, man. I mean, the guy had no sense of the inside part of the plate or the outside part of the plate.” I’m not expecting that two days in a row. On a hot, humid summer night in St Louis, look for runs in bunches from both of these squads. Take the Over. |
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07-09-16 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take LA Dodgers – San Diego Padres OVER (#961-962) Right now, the San Diego Padres are the single best ‘Over’ bet in baseball. San Diego is 5-1 to the Over in their last six contests while averaging just shy of seven runs per game offensively; 16-5 to the Over in their last 21. If you’re a regular client you already know my mantra regarding overs. Here’s an excerpt from a recent write-up explaining exactly what I’m talking about: “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got a recipe for Over after Over. “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 10-0 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch” The Padres aren’t the only team trending heavily to the Over in this matchup. The LA Dodgers bats are clicking too, pounding out four runs or more seven times in their last nine games, including last night’s ten run outburst in a game that flew Over the total in the third inning. Neither starter is reliable and both bullpens are gassed. Neither starter made it out of the third inning last night, leaving both bullpens fatigued here. In fact, none of the Dodgers last six starters has recorded an out past the fifth inning and their last day off came on June 23rd. That’s an optimal recipe for late inning shenanigans here, particularly on a hot evening in LA with Carlos Torres calling balls and strikes (five straight Overs; more than 9.5 runs per game in his 17 previous instances behind home plate this year). With Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy on a strict pitch count in only his second start back from 14 months on the DL following Tommy John surgery, LA’s bullpen issues right now are clearly a problem. And it’s worth noting that McCarthy was rushed back due to Clayton Kershaw’s injury – he wasn’t supposed to be finished with his rehab until AFTER the All Star Brek. The Padres bullpen has been a gas can all year, ranked #25 in bullpen ERA. That’s come in large part because they’ve already thrown 306.3 innings, second most in all of baseball behind Cincinnati. Starter Luis Perdomo has one start and two relief appearances against LA this year. In those games, the Dodgers went 16-28 against him, for a .571 batting average against and a 1.434 OPS, truly UGLY numbers. Perdomo has allowed 25 runs in his last six starts while going 5-1 to the Over – he’s not exactly pitching at an ace level just yet. We’ve got hot weather and an ‘Over’ umpire calling balls and strikes. We’ve got two hot lineups and two suspect starters, with two worn down bullpens behind them. This is ASBSOLUTELY the recipe I look for when stepping up my unit size for a wager…..Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
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07-08-16 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Tampa Bay OVER (#919-920) It’s not hard to make a case for betting against either one of these starting pitchers or either one of these bullpens. Red Sox spot starter Sean O’Sullivan is not exactly manager John Farrell’s top option, but with Clay Buchholz getting demoted to the bullpen again, O’Sullivan is all Farrell’s got. He’s the ultimate mediocre journeyman, bouncing around to five different teams since his big league debut in 2009, with a career 13-23 record and 5.99 ERA. In three previous starts this year, O’Sullivan has allowed 12 runs in 15.1 innings of work, with all three games FLYING Over the total, each producing 15 runs or more. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen has been in steady decline for the better part of the last month, more than capable of a late inning meltdown. But Tampa’s bullpen has been even worse, now ranked #27 for the full season in ERA rankings; a big part of the reason why the Rays have allowed five runs or more a whopping 19 times in their last 23 ballgames – this pitching staff stinks right now, plain and simple. Their supposed ‘ace’, Chris Archer, has been getting lit up all year, an extremely profitable ‘fade’ for bettors – the Rays aren’t 5-13 in his 18 previous starts by accident. Boston’s bats have produced ten runs or more three times in their last four games, red hot right now and quite capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves. Archer has faced Boston twice already this year, and neither start was pretty: 10 earned runs and 15 hits allowed in just 10.2 innings of work. In fact, Archer’s career numbers against Boston, particularly at Fenway are downright ugly; with a 5.65 ERA in Boston. Expect a good handful of crooked numbers on the scoreboard for this one! Take the Over. |
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07-07-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Toronto OVER (#961-962) Justin Verlander still carries a reputation in the betting markets as a near ace, which he was for about seven or eight years. But over the last three seasons, Justin Verlander is 28-26 with a 4.09 ERA – mediocre numbers from a mediocre pitcher. Verlander does NOT match up well against the Blue Jays. His 35.2% ground ball rate is the second worst of his career (last year’s 34.6% was the worst). And his Home Run to Fly Ball ratio of 11.5 is also the worst of his career. Verlander is still notching strikeouts – 115 in 111.2 innings this year – which makes his advanced metric numbers look decent, and keeps the betting markets from recognizing his true current form. But a pitcher who can’t keep the ball in the park against the potent Toronto bats is primed for an ineffective outing this evening. Behind him, the Tigers bullpen isn’t particularly fresh – this is their tenth consecutive game without a day off, and two of their last three starters combined for only 6.1 innings of work in short stints at Cleveland earlier in the week. That’s bad news with the Blue Jays clicking offensively right now, pounding out 44 runs in the last five games of this homestand. The Tigers flew Over the total by themselves in a 12 run outburst yesterday, the fourth time in their last eight games that Detroit has scored ten or more runs. Toronto’s Drew Hutchison is no ace, demoted to AAA for the first three months of this season despite a 13 win campaign in 2015. Current Tigers are hitting .297 against him in their careers. Behind Hutchison, Toronto’s bullpen ranks behind only Cinci and Atlanta with 19 losses this year, more than capable of allowing some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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07-06-16 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Take Arizona – San Diego OVER (#911-912) Right now, the San Diego Padres have become the single best ‘Over’ bet in baseball. San Diego is 6-1 to the Over in their last seven contests while averaging six runs per game offensively; 14-4 to the Over in their last 18. If you’re a regular client you already know my mantra regarding overs. Here’s an excerpt from a recent write-up explaining exactly what I’m talking about: “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got a recipe for Over after Over. “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 10-0 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch” The Padres aren’t the only team trending heavily to the Over in this matchup. Arizona, too, has a red hot lineup and an ice cold, overworked pitching staff. They’re 6-0 to the Over in their last six, 10-2 to the Over in their last dozen games, averaging 5.5 runs per game during that span. The betting markets have spent all year waiting for Shelby Miller to turn his season around. It hasn’t happened – his ERA is now sitting at 7.05 in seven previous home starts after another rough outing against San Fran on his last trip to the hill. San Diego’s Colin Rea has shown some promise, but a 5.13 road ERA doesn’t inspire much confidence in this bettor. And this quote from red hot Padre Will Myers stands out in my mind, coming off a four hit day: “You see the ball really well here (at Chase Field).” Take the Over. |
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07-05-16 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Take Boston – Texas OVER (#971-972) With Colby Lewis, Yu Darvish and Derek Holland all on the DL, the Rangers are missing 3/5 of their starting rotation right now. The replacements haven’t been good – too many weak arms that can’t eat innings. The numbers don’t lie. In their last six games, Rangers starters have combined to throw only 26 innings of work – only once did the starter reach the sixth inning. That’s left the bullpen to clean up mess after mess. And the Rangers bullpen is clearly reeling right now. They’ve thrown 25 innings in that six game span, with an ERA of 9.72 during that span, truly woeful numbers. That’s particularly bad news with AJ Griffin on the hill tonight. Griffin has only lasted a combined 9.1 innings in two starts since his own stint on the DL. Griffin and that struggling Rangers bullpen won’t have an easy time of it tonight against the red hot Red Sox lineup. No team in baseball has a more potent lineup than Boston this year, the highest scoring team in MLB by a fairly wide margin. The Red Sox have pounded out 22 runs on 37 hits in their last two games alone, with eight of their nine guys in the lineup yesterday notching at least one extra base hit. Boston has cashed nine winning Over bets in their last dozen games, in large part due to their lineup success. Texas can’t pitch, but they sure can hit! The Rangers, too, are trending Over of late, 8-3-1 to the Over in their last dozen games, scoring five runs or more nine times during that span. They’ve certainly had success against Boston starter David Price. Price faced 18 Ranger batters in Arlington two starts back. 12 of those 18 batters notched hits. His career ERA against Texas is 5.78; current Rangers have a career .353 batting average against him in a 150 at-bat sample size. And Price has been particularly vulnerable to the long ball of late, allowing at least one home run in each of his last eight starts. Behind him, it’s certainly not like the Red Sox bullpen has been ‘lights out’ of late, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Take the Over. |
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07-02-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Take Arizona – San Francisco OVER (#909-910) We saw ten runs scored between these two teams last night on this field in a matchup of aces. Tonight, with a much weaker starting pitching matchup, we should expect runs in bunches once again! The Giants lineup is on fire right now, producing five runs or more 12 times in their last 16 games, including 30 runs scored in their last four contests alone. They’ve gone 10-5-1 to the Over during that span, including a run of five Overs and a push in their last six contests. The Giants should get both Buster Posey and Denard Span back in the lineup tonight following a day off yesterday. Arizona is certainly capable of trading runs with San Fran – they’ve scored seven runs or more five times in their last eight games while going 6-2 to the Over during that span. Neither starter is a ‘bet-on’ pitcher today! Jeff Samardzija allowed six runs or more three times in five June starts. Samardzija has cashed only one Under bet in his last seven trips to the hill, and he’s got a poor track record against the D-backs lineup, allowing current Arizona players to hit .295 against him in their respective careers. Behind him, the Giants bullpen hasn’t had a day off since June 16th, not primed to slam the door shut in the latter stages tonight. Patrick Corbin has been repeatedly lit up by the Giants lineup to the tune of a .307 career batting average and an .835 OPS in 166 previous at bats against him. Corbin has been nothing short of awful in front of the home fans this year, with an 0-5 record and a 7.02 ERA in seven previous starts at Chase Field in 2016. And Corbin’s strikeout pitch has basically disappeared of late, notching only four K’s (while walking eight batters) over his last two outings, a major red flag for a mediocre hurler. Behind Corbin, the D-backs pen ranks #22 in the majors in ERA while sitting just outside the top five in innings pitched, leaving the door open for some late inning fireworks should we need them. Take the Over. |
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07-01-16 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Texas – Minnesota OVER (#971-972) We’ve got two very suspect starters and two truly dismal bullpens in play tonight against a pair of potent lineups, setting the stage for what should be a high scoring affair at Target Field this evening. Martin Perez ranks #90 out of 91 starting pitchers with enough innings to qualify in MLB this year when it comes to notching strikeouts, with a 4.4 K/9 ratio – only woeful Mike Pelfrey notches fewer K’s. And when pitchers don’t notch strikeouts, they have a very hard time getting through the batting order the second or third time. That’s a big reason why Perez is NOT an innings eater; averaging just six per start. The Rangers bullpen behind him is a gas can right now. One night after blowing a four run lead in the ninth against the Yankees, the Texas bullpen was largely ineffective again yesterday, retiring only 10 of the 17 batters who tried to reach base (not counting a sacrifice bunt). That bullpen certainly isn’t rested or ready after five inning stints from each of their last two starters. And the Twins are showing life offensively, including a wild five run ninth inning rally against the White Sox on Wednesday. Texas can hit, the #3 offense in the AL in runs scored. And they’re hitting right now, pounding out six runs or more six times in their last seven contests. The Rangers have certainly hit Erwin Santana well over the years, with Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland combining for ten home runs and 29 RBIs in just 104 career at bats against him. Santana isn’t eating up innings either, in part due to the weakness of Minnesota’s defense behind him, ranked #29 or #30 in the best advanced metric stats for defense. And the Twins bullpen is every bit the gas can that the Rangers bullpen is, primed to allow some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in the latter stages should we need them. Take the Over. |
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